Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Review of LACIE methodology, a project evaluation of technical acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Results indicated that the LANDSAT data and the classification technology can estimate the small grains area within a sample segment accurately and reliably enough to meet the LACIE goals. Overall, the LACIE estimates in a 9 x 11 kilometer segment agree well with ground and aircraft determined area within these segments. The estimated c.v. of the random classification error was acceptably small. These analyses confirmed that bias introduced by various factors, such as LANDSAT spatial resolution, lack of spectral resolution, classifier bias, and repeatability, was not excessive in terms of the required performance criterion. Results of these tests did indicate a difficulty in differentiating wheat from other closely related small grains. However, satisfactory wheat area estimates were obtained through the reduction of the small grain area estimates in accordance with relative amounts of these crops as determined from historic data; these procedures are being further refined.

Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

PubMed

Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

2015-10-01

Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

Small area estimation for estimating the number of infant mortality in West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggreyani, Arie; Indahwati, Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

Demographic and Health Survey Indonesia (DHSI) is a national designed survey to provide information regarding birth rate, mortality rate, family planning and health. DHSI was conducted by BPS in cooperation with National Population and Family Planning Institution (BKKBN), Indonesia Ministry of Health (KEMENKES) and USAID. Based on the publication of DHSI 2012, the infant mortality rate for a period of five years before survey conducted is 32 for 1000 birth lives. In this paper, Small Area Estimation (SAE) is used to estimate the number of infant mortality in districts of West Java. SAE is a special model of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). In this case, the incidence of infant mortality is a Poisson distribution which has equdispersion assumption. The methods to handle overdispersion are binomial negative and quasi-likelihood model. Based on the results of analysis, quasi-likelihood model is the best model to overcome overdispersion problem. The basic model of the small area estimation used basic area level model. Mean square error (MSE) which based on resampling method is used to measure the accuracy of small area estimates.

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2013-04-01

Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

Small-area estimation of health insurance coverage for California legislative districts.

PubMed

Yu, Hongjian; Meng, Ying-Ying; Mendez-Luck, Carolyn A; Jhawar, Mona; Wallace, Steven P

2007-04-01

To aid state and local policymakers, program planners, and community advocates, we created estimates of the percentage of the population lacking health insurance in small geographic areas of California. Finally, calibration ensured the consistency and stability of the estimates when they were aggregated. Health insurance coverage among nonelderly persons varied widely across assembly districts, from 10% to 44%. The utility of local-level estimates was most apparent when the variations in subcounty uninsured rates in Los Angeles County (19%-44%) were examined. Stable and useful estimates of health insurance rates for small areas such as legislative districts can be created through use of multiple sources of publicly available data.

Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation.

PubMed

Maiti, Tapabrata; Sinha, Samiran; Zhong, Ping-Shou

2016-09-01

Functional data analysis has become an important area of research due to its ability of handling high dimensional and complex data structures. However, the development is limited in the context of linear mixed effect models, and in particular, for small area estimation. The linear mixed effect models are the backbone of small area estimation. In this article, we consider area level data, and fit a varying coefficient linear mixed effect model where the varying coefficients are semi-parametrically modeled via B-splines. We propose a method of estimating the fixed effect parameters and consider prediction of random effects that can be implemented using a standard software. For measuring prediction uncertainties, we derive an analytical expression for the mean squared errors, and propose a method of estimating the mean squared errors. The procedure is illustrated via a real data example, and operating characteristics of the method are judged using finite sample simulation studies.

Bayes plus Brass: Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data

PubMed Central

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Cavenaghi, Suzana M.; Assunção, Renato M.; Potter, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Small-area fertility estimates are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. Such estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required, they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas, and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step algorithm for estimating total fertility in such circumstances, and we illustrate by applying the method to 2000 Brazilian Census data for over five thousand municipalities. Our proposed algorithm first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods, and then applies a new variant of Brass’s P/F parity correction procedure that is robust under conditions of rapid fertility decline. PMID:24143946

An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s.

PubMed

Congdon, P

1989-01-01

"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration." excerpt

Small Area Estimate Maps: Does the FDA Regulate Tobacco? - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

This metric is defined as a person 18 years of age or older who must have reported that he/she believes that the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulates tobacco products in the U.S.

Small Area Estimate Maps: Is a Hookah Less Harmful? - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

This metric is defined as a person 18 years of age or older who must have reported that he/she thinks that smoking tobacco using a hookah is less harmful or much less harmful compared to smoking cigarettes.

Accuracy or precision: Implications of sample design and methodology on abundance estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kowalewski, Lucas K.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Powell, Larkin A.; Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture models. Many sample units of small area provided estimates that were consistently closer to true abundance than sample scenarios with few sample units of large area. However, sample scenarios with few sample units of large area provided more precise abundance estimates than abundance estimates derived from sample scenarios with many sample units of small area. It is important to consider accuracy and precision of abundance estimates during the sample design process with study goals and objectives fully recognized, although and with consequence, consideration of accuracy and precision of abundance estimates is often an afterthought that occurs during the data analysis process.

Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2014-01-01

Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.

Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

Small area estimation for semicontinuous data.

PubMed

Chandra, Hukum; Chambers, Ray

2016-03-01

Survey data often contain measurements for variables that are semicontinuous in nature, i.e. they either take a single fixed value (we assume this is zero) or they have a continuous, often skewed, distribution on the positive real line. Standard methods for small area estimation (SAE) based on the use of linear mixed models can be inefficient for such variables. We discuss SAE techniques for semicontinuous variables under a two part random effects model that allows for the presence of excess zeros as well as the skewed nature of the nonzero values of the response variable. In particular, we first model the excess zeros via a generalized linear mixed model fitted to the probability of a nonzero, i.e. strictly positive, value being observed, and then model the response, given that it is strictly positive, using a linear mixed model fitted on the logarithmic scale. Empirical results suggest that the proposed method leads to efficient small area estimates for semicontinuous data of this type. We also propose a parametric bootstrap method to estimate the MSE of the proposed small area estimator. These bootstrap estimates of the MSE are compared to the true MSE in a simulation study. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF INDICATORS OF STREAM CONDITION FOR MAIA USING HIERARCHICAL BAYES PREDICTION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Probability surveys of stream and river resources (hereafter referred to as streams) provide reliable estimates of stream condition when the areas for the estimates have sufficient number of sample sites. Monitoring programs are frequently asked to provide estimates for areas th...

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

PubMed

Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Validation of spatiodemographic estimates produced through data fusion of small area census records and household microdata

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Amy N.; Nagle, Nicholas N.

Techniques such as Iterative Proportional Fitting have been previously suggested as a means to generate new data with the demographic granularity of individual surveys and the spatial granularity of small area tabulations of censuses and surveys. This article explores internal and external validation approaches for synthetic, small area, household- and individual-level microdata using a case study for Bangladesh. Using data from the Bangladesh Census 2011 and the Demographic and Health Survey, we produce estimates of infant mortality rate and other household attributes for small areas using a variation of an iterative proportional fitting method called P-MEDM. We conduct an internalmore » validation to determine: whether the model accurately recreates the spatial variation of the input data, how each of the variables performed overall, and how the estimates compare to the published population totals. We conduct an external validation by comparing the estimates with indicators from the 2009 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) for Bangladesh to benchmark how well the estimates compared to a known dataset which was not used in the original model. The results indicate that the estimation process is viable for regions that are better represented in the microdata sample, but also revealed the possibility of strong overfitting in sparsely sampled sub-populations.« less

Validation of spatiodemographic estimates produced through data fusion of small area census records and household microdata

DOE PAGES

Rose, Amy N.; Nagle, Nicholas N.

2016-08-01

Techniques such as Iterative Proportional Fitting have been previously suggested as a means to generate new data with the demographic granularity of individual surveys and the spatial granularity of small area tabulations of censuses and surveys. This article explores internal and external validation approaches for synthetic, small area, household- and individual-level microdata using a case study for Bangladesh. Using data from the Bangladesh Census 2011 and the Demographic and Health Survey, we produce estimates of infant mortality rate and other household attributes for small areas using a variation of an iterative proportional fitting method called P-MEDM. We conduct an internalmore » validation to determine: whether the model accurately recreates the spatial variation of the input data, how each of the variables performed overall, and how the estimates compare to the published population totals. We conduct an external validation by comparing the estimates with indicators from the 2009 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) for Bangladesh to benchmark how well the estimates compared to a known dataset which was not used in the original model. The results indicate that the estimation process is viable for regions that are better represented in the microdata sample, but also revealed the possibility of strong overfitting in sparsely sampled sub-populations.« less

Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, andmore » a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.« less

Spring Small Grains Area Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, W. F.; Mohler, R. J.

1986-01-01

SSG3 automatically estimates acreage of spring small grains from Landsat data. Report describes development and testing of a computerized technique for using Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to estimate acreage of spring small grains (wheat, barley, and oats). Application of technique to analysis of four years of data from United States and Canada yielded estimates of accuracy comparable to those obtained through procedures that rely on trained analysis.

Empirical best linear unbiased prediction method for small areas with restricted maximum likelihood and bootstrap procedure to estimate the average of household expenditure per capita in Banjar Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminah, Agustin Siti; Pawitan, Gandhi; Tantular, Bertho

2017-03-01

So far, most of the data published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as data providers for national statistics are still limited to the district level. Less sufficient sample size for smaller area levels to make the measurement of poverty indicators with direct estimation produced high standard error. Therefore, the analysis based on it is unreliable. To solve this problem, the estimation method which can provide a better accuracy by combining survey data and other auxiliary data is required. One method often used for the estimation is the Small Area Estimation (SAE). There are many methods used in SAE, one of them is Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP). EBLUP method of maximum likelihood (ML) procedures does not consider the loss of degrees of freedom due to estimating β with β ^. This drawback motivates the use of the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedure. This paper proposed EBLUP with REML procedure for estimating poverty indicators by modeling the average of household expenditures per capita and implemented bootstrap procedure to calculate MSE (Mean Square Error) to compare the accuracy EBLUP method with the direct estimation method. Results show that EBLUP method reduced MSE in small area estimation.

Small Area Variance Estimation for the Siuslaw NF in Oregon and Some Results

Treesearch

S. Lin; D. Boes; H.T. Schreuder

2006-01-01

The results of a small area prediction study for the Siuslaw National Forest in Oregon are presented. Predictions were made for total basal area, number of trees and mortality per ha on a 0.85 mile grid using data on a 1.7 mile grid and additional ancillary information from TM. A reliable method of estimating prediction errors for individual plot predictions called the...

Examining geographic patterns of mortality: the atlas of mortality in small areas in Spain (1987-1995).

PubMed

Benach, Joan; Yasui, Yutaka; Borrell, Carme; Rosa, Elisabeth; Pasarín, M Isabel; Benach, Núria; Español, Esther; Martínez, José Miguel; Daponte, Antonio

2003-06-01

Small-area mortality atlases have been demonstrated to be a useful tool for both showing general geographical patterns in mortality data and identifying specific high-risk locations. In Spain no study has so far systematically examined geographic patterns of small-area mortality for the main causes of death. This paper presents the main features, contents and potential uses of the Spanish Atlas of Mortality in small areas (1987-1995). Population data for 2,218 small areas were drawn from the 1991 Census. Aggregated mortality data for 14 specific causes of death for the period 1987-1995 were obtained for each small area. Empirical Bayes-model-based estimates of age-adjusted relative risk were displayed in small-area maps for each cause/gender/age group (0-64 or 65 and over) combination using the same range of values (i.e. septiles) and colour schemes. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' includes multiple choropleth (area-shaded) small-area maps and graphs to answer different questions about the data. The atlas is divided into three main sections. Section 1 includes the methods and comments on the main maps. Section 2 presents a two-page layout for each leading cause of death by gender including 1) a large map with relative risk estimates, 2) a map that indicates high- and low-risk small areas, 3) a graph with median and interquartile range of relative risk estimates for 17 large regions of Spain, and 4) relative-risk maps for two age groups. Section 3 provides specific information on the geographical units of analysis, statistical methods and other supplemental maps. The 'Spanish Atlas of Mortality' is a useful tool for examining geographical patterns of mortality risk and identifying specific high-risk areas. Mortality patterns displayed in the atlas may have important implications for research and social/health policy planning purposes.

Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-12-01

This paper considers the development of estimates of mental illness prevalence for small areas and applications in explaining psychiatric outcomes and in assessing service provision. Estimates of prevalence are based on a logistic regression analysis of two national studies that provides model based estimates of relative morbidity risk by demographic, socio-economic and ethnic group for major psychiatric conditions; household/marital and area status also figure in the regression. Relative risk estimates are used, along with suitably disaggregated census populations, to make prevalence estimates for 354 English local authorities (LAs). Two applications are considered: the first involves analysis of variations in schizophrenia referrals and suicide mortality over English LAs that takes account of prevalence differences, and the second involves assessing hospital referral and bed use in relation to prevalence (for ages 16-74) for a case study area, Waltham Forest in NE London.

A comparison of small-area hospitalisation rates, estimated morbidity and hospital access.

PubMed

Shulman, H; Birkin, M; Clarke, G P

2015-11-01

Published data on hospitalisation rates tend to reveal marked spatial variations within a city or region. Such variations may simply reflect corresponding variations in need at the small-area level. However, they might also be a consequence of poorer accessibility to medical facilities for certain communities within the region. To help answer this question it is important to compare these variable hospitalisation rates with small-area estimates of need. This paper first maps hospitalisation rates at the small-area level across the region of Yorkshire in the UK to show the spatial variations present. Then the Health Survey of England is used to explore the characteristics of persons with heart disease, using chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Using the most significant variables from this analysis the authors build a spatial microsimulation model of morbidity for heart disease for the Yorkshire region. We then compare these estimates of need with the patterns of hospitalisation rates seen across the region. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LACIE large area acreage estimation. [United States of America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. S.; Feiveson, A. H. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

A sample wheat acreage for a large area is obtained by multiplying its small grains acreage estimate as computed by the classification and mensuration subsystem by the best available ratio of wheat to small grains acreages obtained from historical data. In the United States, as in other countries with detailed historical data, an additional level of aggregation was required because sample allocation was made at the substratum level. The essential features of the estimation procedure for LACIE countries are included along with procedures for estimating wheat acreage in the United States.

Estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for selected flood frequencies on small streams in South Carolina (1975)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whetstone, B.H.

1982-01-01

A program to collect and analyze flood data from small streams in South Carolina was conducted from 1967-75, as a cooperative research project with the South Carolina Department of Highways and Public Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. As a result of that program, a technique is presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in South Carolina with drainage areas ranging in size from 1 to 500 square miles. Peak-discharge data from 74 stream-gaging stations (25 small streams were synthesized, whereas 49 stations had long-term records) were used in multiple regression procedures to obtain equations for estimating magnitude of floods having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years on small natural streams. The significant independent variable was drainage area. Equations were developed for the three physiographic provinces of South Carolina (Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge) and can be used for estimating floods on small streams. (USGS)

Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

PubMed

van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

2017-07-01

Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the direct estimates at the municipal level. Structured additive regression is a useful tool to provide small area estimates in a unified framework. We are able to produce valid nationwide small area estimates of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands. The results can be used for local policy makers to make appropriate health policy decisions.

Modelling changes in small area disability free life expectancy: trends in London wards between 2001 and 2011.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2014-12-20

Existing analyses of trends in disability free life expectancy (DFLE) are mainly at aggregate level (national or broad regional). However, major differences in DFLE, and trends in these expectancies, exist between different neighbourhoods within regions, so supporting a small area perspective. However, this raises issues regarding the stability of conventional life table estimation methods at small area scales. This paper advocates a Bayesian borrowing strength technique to model trends in mortality and disability differences across 625 small areas in London, using illness data from the 2001 and 2011 population Censuses, and deaths data for two periods centred on the Census years. From this analysis, estimates of total life expectancy and DFLE are obtained. The spatio-temporal modelling perspective allows assessment of whether significant compression or expansion of morbidity has occurred in each small area. Appropriate models involve random effects that recognise correlation and interaction effects over relevant dimensions of the observed deaths and illness data (areas, ages), as well as major spatial trends (e.g. gradients in health and mortality according to area deprivation category). Whilst borrowing strength is a primary consideration (and demonstrated by raised precision for estimated life expectancies), so also is model parsimony. Therefore, pure borrowing strength models are compared with models allowing selection of random age-area interaction effects using a spike-slab prior, and in fact borrowing strength combined with random effects selection provides better fit. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Annual peak discharges from small drainage areas in Montana through September 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1977-01-01

Annual peak discharge from small drainage areas is tabulated for 336 sites in Montana. The 1976 additions included data collected at 206 sites. The program which investigates the magnitude and frequency of floods from small drainage areas in Montana, was begun July 1, 1955. Originally 45 crest-stage gaging stations were established. The purpose of the program is to collect sufficient peak-flow data, which through analysis could provide methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at any point in Montana. The ultimate objective is to provide methods for estimating the 100-year flood with the reliability needed for road design. (Woodard-USGS)

Why is quality estimation judgment fast? Comparison of gaze control strategies in quality and difference estimation tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radun, Jenni; Leisti, Tuomas; Virtanen, Toni; Nyman, Göte; Häkkinen, Jukka

2014-11-01

To understand the viewing strategies employed in a quality estimation task, we compared two visual tasks-quality estimation and difference estimation. The estimation was done for a pair of natural images having small global changes in quality. Two groups of observers estimated the same set of images, but with different instructions. One group estimated the difference in quality and the other the difference between image pairs. The results demonstrated the use of different visual strategies in the tasks. The quality estimation was found to include more visual planning during the first fixation than the difference estimation, but afterward needed only a few long fixations on the semantically important areas of the image. The difference estimation used many short fixations. Salient image areas were mainly attended to when these areas were also semantically important. The results support the hypothesis that these tasks' general characteristics (evaluation time, number of fixations, area fixated on) show differences in processing, but also suggest that examining only single fixations when comparing tasks is too narrow a view. When planning a subjective experiment, one must remember that a small change in the instructions might lead to a noticeable change in viewing strategy.

Cancer Related-Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

These model-based estimates are produced using statistical models that combine data from the Health Information National Trends Survey, and auxiliary variables obtained from relevant sources and borrow strength from other areas with similar characteristics.

[Potentials in the regionalization of health indicators using small-area estimation methods : Exemplary results based on the 2009, 2010 and 2012 GEDA studies].

PubMed

Kroll, Lars Eric; Schumann, Maria; Müters, Stephan; Lampert, Thomas

2017-12-01

Nationwide health surveys can be used to estimate regional differences in health. Using traditional estimation techniques, the spatial depth for these estimates is limited due to the constrained sample size. So far - without special refreshment samples - results have only been available for larger populated federal states of Germany. An alternative is regression-based small-area estimation techniques. These models can generate smaller-scale data, but are also subject to greater statistical uncertainties because of the model assumptions. In the present article, exemplary regionalized results based on the studies "Gesundheit in Deutschland aktuell" (GEDA studies) 2009, 2010 and 2012, are compared to the self-rated health status of the respondents. The aim of the article is to analyze the range of regional estimates in order to assess the usefulness of the techniques for health reporting more adequately. The results show that the estimated prevalence is relatively stable when using different samples. Important determinants of the variation of the estimates are the achieved sample size on the district level and the type of the district (cities vs. rural regions). Overall, the present study shows that small-area modeling of prevalence is associated with additional uncertainties compared to conventional estimates, which should be taken into account when interpreting the corresponding findings.

Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

PubMed Central

Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

2015-01-01

Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

2012-01-01

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Generating Health Estimates by Zip Code: A Semiparametric Small Area Estimation Approach Using the California Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Wang, Yueyan; Ponce, Ninez A; Wang, Pan; Opsomer, Jean D; Yu, Hongjian

2015-12-01

We propose a method to meet challenges in generating health estimates for granular geographic areas in which the survey sample size is extremely small. Our generalized linear mixed model predicts health outcomes using both individual-level and neighborhood-level predictors. The model's feature of nonparametric smoothing function on neighborhood-level variables better captures the association between neighborhood environment and the outcome. Using 2011 to 2012 data from the California Health Interview Survey, we demonstrate an empirical application of this method to estimate the fraction of residents without health insurance for Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs). Our method generated stable estimates of uninsurance for 1519 of 1765 ZCTAs (86%) in California. For some areas with great socioeconomic diversity across adjacent neighborhoods, such as Los Angeles County, the modeled uninsured estimates revealed much heterogeneity among geographically adjacent ZCTAs. The proposed method can increase the value of health surveys by providing modeled estimates for health data at a granular geographic level. It can account for variations in health outcomes at the neighborhood level as a result of both socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations.

Small area estimation in forests affected by wildfire in the Interior West

Treesearch

G. G. Moisen; J. A. Blackard; M. Finco

2004-01-01

Recent emphasis has been placed on estimating amount and characteristics of forests affected by wildfire in the Interior West. Data collected by FIA is intended for estimation over large geographic areas and is too sparse to construct sufficiently precise estimates within burn perimeters. This paper illustrates how recently built MODISbased maps of forest/nonforest and...

Simulation analyses of space use: Home range estimates, variability, and sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bekoff, Marc; Mech, L. David

1984-01-01

Simulations of space use by animals were run to determine the relationship among home range area estimates, variability, and sample size (number of locations). As sample size increased, home range size increased asymptotically, whereas variability decreased among mean home range area estimates generated by multiple simulations for the same sample size. Our results suggest that field workers should ascertain between 100 and 200 locations in order to estimate reliably home range area. In some cases, this suggested guideline is higher than values found in the few published studies in which the relationship between home range area and number of locations is addressed. Sampling differences for small species occupying relatively small home ranges indicate that fewer locations may be sufficient to allow for a reliable estimate of home range. Intraspecific variability in social status (group member, loner, resident, transient), age, sex, reproductive condition, and food resources also have to be considered, as do season, habitat, and differences in sampling and analytical methods. Comparative data still are needed.

Post-stratification sampling in small area estimation (SAE) model for unemployment rate estimation by Bayes approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanike, Yusrianti; Sadik, Kusman; Kurnia, Anang

2016-02-01

This research implemented unemployment rate in Indonesia that based on Poisson distribution. It would be estimated by modified the post-stratification and Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Post-stratification was one of technique sampling that stratified after collected survey data. It's used when the survey data didn't serve for estimating the interest area. Interest area here was the education of unemployment which separated in seven category. The data was obtained by Labour Employment National survey (Sakernas) that's collected by company survey in Indonesia, BPS, Statistic Indonesia. This company served the national survey that gave too small sample for level district. Model of SAE was one of alternative to solved it. According the problem above, we combined this post-stratification sampling and SAE model. This research gave two main model of post-stratification sampling. Model I defined the category of education was the dummy variable and model II defined the category of education was the area random effect. Two model has problem wasn't complied by Poisson assumption. Using Poisson-Gamma model, model I has over dispersion problem was 1.23 solved to 0.91 chi square/df and model II has under dispersion problem was 0.35 solved to 0.94 chi square/df. Empirical Bayes was applied to estimate the proportion of every category education of unemployment. Using Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Model I has smaller mean square error (MSE) than model II.

An analytical framework for extracting hydrological information from time series of small reservoirs in a semi-arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annor, Frank; van de Giesen, Nick; Bogaard, Thom; Eilander, Dirk

2013-04-01

Small water reservoirs for water resources management have as important socio-economic advantage that they bring water close to villages and households. This proximity allows for many water uses in addition to irrigation, such as fisheries, household water, building materials (loam, reeds), tourism and recreation, and cattle watering. These positive aspects are offset by the relatively large evaporative losses in comparison to larger reservoirs, although, it is not exactly known how large these losses are. For decision makers, investors and donors, the decision to construct a small reservoir should be multifactored; and based on economic, socio-cultural and environmental factors. For the latter, getting the water balance and the energy budget of small reservoirs right is key for any environmental impact analyses. For Northern Ghana, the relation between volume of a small reservoir and its' surface area has been established in a robust equation as: Volume = 0.00857Area1.4367 with the surface area explaining more than 95% of the variation in water volume of the reservoirs. This allows the use of remote sensing observations for estimating water volume of small reservoirs in northern Ghana. Hydrological analyses of time series of small reservoir areas comprises estimates of evaporation fluxes and cumulative surface runoff curves. Once the reservoirs are full, spillage will occur and volumes and surface areas remain stable at their maximum extents. This implies that the time series of reservoir surface area contains information concerning the on-set of downstream surface runoff. This on-set does not coincide with the on-set of the rainy season but largely depends on the distribution of rainfall events and storage capacity in the subsurface. The main requirement for this analysis is that the reservoir has negligible seepage losses or water influx from the underlying subsurface. In our research, we carried out a time series analysis of surface area extent for about 45 small reservoirs in the Upper East Region of Ghana. Reservoirs without obvious large seepage losses (field survey) were selected. To verify this, stable water isotopic samples are collected from groundwater upstream and downstream from the reservoir. By looking at possible enrichment of downstream groundwater, a good estimate of seepage can be made in addition to estimates on evaporation. We estimated the evaporative losses and compared those with field measurements using eddy correlation measurements. Lastly, we determined the cumulative surface runoff curves for the small reservoirs .We will present this analytical framework for extracting hydrological information from time series of small reservoirs and show the first results for our study region of northern Ghana.

A Bayesian approach to multisource forest area estimation

Treesearch

Andrew O. Finley

2007-01-01

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, demand is increasing for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for...

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2015-12-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Robust small area prediction for counts.

PubMed

Tzavidis, Nikos; Ranalli, M Giovanna; Salvati, Nicola; Dreassi, Emanuela; Chambers, Ray

2015-06-01

A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Estimating individual tree leaf area in loblolly pine plantations using LiDAR-derived measurments of height and crown dimensions

Treesearch

Scott D. Roberts; Thomas J. Dean; David L. Evans; John W. McCombs; Richard L. Harrington; Partick A. Glass

2005-01-01

Accurate estimates of leaf area index (LAI) could provide useful information to forest managers, but due to difficulties in measurement, leaf area is rarely used in decision-making. A reliable approach to remotely estimating LA1 would greatly facilitate its use in forest management. This study investigated the potential for using small-footprint iDAR, a laser-based...

Neighborhood Sociodemographic Predictors of Serious Emotional Disturbance (SED) in Schools: Demonstrating a Small Area Estimation Method in the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS-A) Adolescent Supplement

PubMed Central

Alegría, Margarita; Kessler, Ronald C.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Gruber, Michael J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2014-01-01

We evaluate the precision of a model estimating school prevalence of SED using a small area estimation method based on readily-available predictors from area-level census block data and school principal questionnaires. Adolescents at 314 schools participated in the National Comorbidity Supplement, a national survey of DSM-IV disorders among adolescents. A multilevel model indicated that predictors accounted for under half of the variance in school-level SED and even less when considering block-group predictors or principal report alone. While Census measures and principal questionnaires are significant predictors of individual-level SED, associations are too weak to generate precise school-level predictions of SED prevalence. PMID:24740174

Small-Area Estimation of Spatial Access to Care and Its Implications for Policy.

PubMed

Gentili, Monica; Isett, Kim; Serban, Nicoleta; Swann, Julie

2015-10-01

Local or small-area estimates to capture emerging trends across large geographic regions are critical in identifying and addressing community-level health interventions. However, they are often unavailable due to lack of analytic capabilities in compiling and integrating extensive datasets and complementing them with the knowledge about variations in state-level health policies. This study introduces a modeling approach for small-area estimation of spatial access to pediatric primary care that is data "rich" and mathematically rigorous, integrating data and health policy in a systematic way. We illustrate the sensitivity of the model to policy decision making across large geographic regions by performing a systematic comparison of the estimates at the census tract and county levels for Georgia and California. Our results show the proposed approach is able to overcome limitations of other existing models by capturing patient and provider preferences and by incorporating possible changes in health policies. The primary finding is systematic underestimation of spatial access, and inaccurate estimates of disparities across population and across geography at the county level with respect to those at the census tract level with implications on where to focus and which type of interventions to consider.

Real-Time Estimation of Small-Area Populations with Human Biomarkers in Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

A totally new approach is conceptualized for measuring small-area human populations by using biomarkers in sewage. The basis for the concept (SCIM: Sewage Chemical-Information Mining) is supported by a comprehensive examination and synthesis of data published across several disc...

Global fire emissions estimates during 1997-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, Guido R.; Randerson, James T.; Giglio, Louis; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Chen, Yang; Rogers, Brendan M.; Mu, Mingquan; van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Morton, Douglas C.; Collatz, G. James; Yokelson, Robert J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.

2017-09-01

Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997-2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr-1) during 1997-2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr-1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr-1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997-2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (-19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between GFED4s and GFED3 were often larger due to the use of revised emission factors. If small fire burned area was excluded (GFED4 without the s for small fires), average emissions were 1.5 Pg C yr-1. The addition of small fires had the largest impact on emissions in temperate North America, Central America, Europe, and temperate Asia. This small fire layer carries substantial uncertainties; improving these estimates will require use of new burned area products derived from high-resolution satellite imagery. Our revised dataset provides an internally consistent set of burned area and emissions that may contribute to a better understanding of multi-decadal changes in fire dynamics and their impact on the Earth system. GFED data are available from http://www.globalfiredata.org.

How number line estimation skills relate to neural activations in single digit subtraction problems

PubMed Central

Berteletti, I.; Man, G.; Booth, J.R.

2014-01-01

The Number Line (NL) task requires judging the relative numerical magnitude of a number and estimating its value spatially on a continuous line. Children's skill on this task has been shown to correlate with and predict future mathematical competence. Neurofunctionally, this task has been shown to rely on brain regions involved in numerical processing. However, there is no direct evidence that performance on the NL task is related to brain areas recruited during arithmetical processing and that these areas are domain-specific to numerical processing. In this study, we test whether 8- to 14-year-old's behavioral performance on the NL task is related to fMRI activation during small and large single-digit subtraction problems. Domain-specific areas for numerical processing were independently localized through a numerosity judgment task. Results show a direct relation between NL estimation performance and the amount of the activation in key areas for arithmetical processing. Better NL estimators showed a larger problem size effect than poorer NL estimators in numerical magnitude (i.e., intraparietal sulcus) and visuospatial areas (i.e., posterior superior parietal lobules), marked by less activation for small problems. In addition, the direction of the activation with problem size within the IPS was associated to differences in accuracies for small subtraction problems. This study is the first to show that performance in the NL task, i.e. estimating the spatial position of a number on an interval, correlates with brain activity observed during single-digit subtraction problem in regions thought to be involved numerical magnitude and spatial processes. PMID:25497398

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

Attempt Quit Smoking 24+ Hours Maps and Data of Model-Based Small Area Estimates - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

Attempt Quit Smoking 24+ Hours is defined as a person 18 years of age or older who must have reported smoking at least 100 cigarettes in his/her life, and now does not smoke at all but it has been less than 365 days since completely stopped smoking cigarettes, or now smoke everyday or some days but reported that have made attempt of quitting for more than 24 hours in the past 12 months.

Small mammal abundance in Mediterranean post-fire habitats: a role for predators?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torre, I.; Díaz, M.

2004-05-01

We studied patterns of small mammal abundance and species richness in post-fire habitats by sampling 33 plots (225 m 2 each) representing different stages of vegetation recovery after fire. Small mammal abundance was estimated by live trapping during early spring 1999 and vegetation structure was sampled by visual estimation at the same plots. Recently-burnt areas were characterised by shrubby and herbaceous vegetation with low structural variability, and unburnt areas were characterised by well developed forest cover with high structural complexity. Small mammal abundance and species richness decreased with time elapsed since the last fire (from 5 to at least 50 years), and these differences were associated to the decreasing cover of short shrubs as the post-fire succession of plant communities advanced. However, relationships between vegetation structure and small mammals differed among areas burned in different times, with weak or negative relationship in recently burnt areas and positive and stronger relationship in unburnt areas. Furthermore, the abundance of small mammals was larger than expected from vegetation structure in plots burned recently whereas the contrary pattern was found in unburned areas. We hypothesised that the pattern observed could be related to the responses of small mammal predators to changes in vegetation and landscape structure promoted by fire. Fire-related fragmentation could have promoted the isolation of forest predators (owls and carnivores) in unburned forest patches, a fact that could have produced a higher predation pressure for small mammals. Conversely, small mammal populations would have been enhanced in early post-fire stages by lower predator numbers combined with better predator protection in areas covered by resprouting woody vegetation.

Estimating influence of stocking regimes on livestock grazing distributions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ungulates often concentrate grazing at small hotspots in the larger landscape, and dispersing livestock away from these intensively grazed areas is one of the central challenges in range management. We evaluated a technique based on shifting the stocking date to prevent overgrazing of small areas co...

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2016-01-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991–2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). PMID:27468328

Procedure M - A framework for stratified area estimation. [in multispectral scanner data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauth, R. J.; Cicone, R. C.; Malila, W. A.

1980-01-01

This paper describes Procedure M, a systematic approach to processing multispectral scanner data for classification and acreage estimation. A general discussion of the rationale and development of the procedure is given in the context of large-area agricultural applications. Specific examples are given in the form of test results on acreage estimation of spring small grains.

Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

PubMed

Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali.

PubMed

Minetti, Andrea; Riera-Montes, Margarita; Nackers, Fabienne; Roederer, Thomas; Koudika, Marie Hortense; Sekkenes, Johanne; Taconet, Aurore; Fermon, Florence; Touré, Albouhary; Grais, Rebecca F; Checchi, Francesco

2012-10-12

Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS) approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. We explored (i) the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii) the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i) health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii) health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii) health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3), standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15) are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

Estimation of small reservoir storage capacities in the São Francisco, Limpopo, Bandama and Volta river basins using remotely sensed surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Lineu; Senzanje, Aidan; Cecchi, Philippe; Liebe, Jens

2010-05-01

People living in areas with highly variable rainfall, experience droughts and floods and often have insecure livelihoods. Small multi-purpose reservoirs (SR) are a widely used form of infrastructures to provide people in such areas with water during the dry season, e.g. in the basins of São Francisco, Brazil, Limpopo, Zimbabwe, Bandama, Ivory Coast and Volta, Ghana. In these areas, the available natural flow in the streams is sometimes less than the flow required for water supply or irrigation, however water can be stored in times of surplus, for example, from a wet season to a dry season. Efficient water management and sound reservoir planning are hindered by the lack of information about the functioning of these reservoirs. Reservoirs in these regions were constructed in a series of projects funded by different agencies, at different times, with little or no coordination among the implementing partners. Poor record keeping and the lack of appropriate institutional support result in deficiencies of information on the capacity, operation, and maintenance of these structures. Estimating the storage capacity of dams is essential to the responsible management of water diversion. Most of SR in these basins have never been evaluated, possibly because the tools currently used for such measurement are labor-intensive, costly and time-consuming. The objective of this research was to develop methodology to estimate small reservoir capacities as a function of their remotely sensed surface areas in the São Francisco, Limpopo, Bandama and Volta basins, as a way to contribute to improve the water resource management in those catchments. Remote sensing was used to identify, localize and characterize small reservoirs. The surface area of each was calculated from satellite images. A sub-set of reservoirs was selected. For each reservoir in the sub-set, the surface area was estimated from field surveys, and storage capacity was estimated using information on reservoir surface area, depth and shape. Depth was measured using a stadia rod or a manual echosounder. For reservoirs in the sub-set, estimated surface area was used as an input into the triangulated irregular network model. With the surface area and depth, measured volume was calculated. Comparisons were made between estimates of surface area from field surveys and estimates of surface area from remote sensing. A linear regression analysis was carried out to establish the relationship between surface area and storage capacities. Within geomorphologically homogenous regions, one may expect a good correlation between the surface area, which may be determined through satellite observations, and the stored volume. Such a relation depends on the general shape of the slopes (convex, through straight, to concave). The power relationships between remotely sensed surface areas (m^2) and storage capacities of reservoirs (m^3) obtained were - Limpopo basin (Lower Mzingwane sub-catchment): Volume = 0.023083 x Area^1.3272 (R2 = 95%); Bandama basin (North of the basin in Ivory Coast): Volume = 0.00405 x Area^1.4953 (R2 = 88.9%); Volta basin (Upper East region of the Volta Basin in Ghana): Volume = 0.00857 × Area^1.43 (R2 = 97.5%); São Francisco basin (Preto river sub-catchment): Volume = 0.2643 x Area^1.1632 (R2 = 92.1%). Remote sensing was found to be a suitable means to detect small reservoirs and accurately measure their surface areas. The general relationship between measured reservoir volumes and their remotely sensed surface areas showed good accuracy for all four basins. Combining such relationships with periodical satellite-based reservoir area measurements may allow hydrologists and planners to have clear picture of water resource system in the Basins, especially in ungauged sub-basins.

Carbon Storage in Urban Areas in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Brown, D.; Keoleian, G.

2007-12-01

It is widely accepted that human settlements occupy a small proportion of the landmass and therefore play a relatively small role in the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Most modeling studies focusing on the land carbon cycle use models of varying complexity to estimate carbon fluxes through forests, grasses, and croplands, but completely omit urban areas from their scope. Here, we estimate carbon storage in urban areas within the United States, defined to encompass a range of observed settlement densities, and its changes from 1950 to 2000. We show that this storage is not negligible and has been continuously increasing. We include natural- and human-related components of urban areas in our estimates. The natural component includes carbon storage in urban soil and vegetation. The human related component encompasses carbon stored long term in buildings, furniture, cars, and waste. The study suggests that urban areas should receive continued attention in efforts to accurately account for carbon uptake and storage in terrestrial systems.

Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Statewide regression equations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years for ungaged sites on natural unregulated streams. The most significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for natural unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and mean-annual precipitation. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation from manmade works. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are discussed. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climatic characteristics, and the peak-stream-flow frequency estimates for 251 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are listed. Techniques are presented to make a peak-streamflow frequency estimate for gaged sites on natural unregulated streams and to use this result to estimate a nearby ungaged site on the same stream. For ungaged sites on urban streams, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. For ungaged sites on streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. The statewide regression equations are adjusted by substituting the drainage area below the floodwater retarding structures, or drainage area that represents the percentage of the unregulated basin, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain peak-streamflow frequency estimates.

An evaluation of satellite data for estimating the area of small forestland in the southern lower peninsula of Michigan. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karteris, M. A. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

A winter black and white band 5, a winter color, a fall color, and a diazo color composite of the fall scene were used to assess the use and potential of LANDSAT images for mapping and estimating acreage of small scattered forest tracts in Barry County, Michigan. Forests as small as 2.5 acres were mapped from each LANDSAT data source. The maps for each image were compared with an available forest-type map. Mapping errors detected were categorized as boundary and identification errors. The most frequently misclassified areas were agriculture lands, treed-bogs, brushlands and lowland and mixed hardwood stands. Stocking level affected interpretation more than stand size. The overall level of the interpretation performance was expressed through the estimation of classification, interpretation, and mapping accuracies. These accuracies ranged from 74 between 74% and 98%. Considering errors, accuracy, and cost, winter color imagery is the best LANDSAT alternative for mapping small forest tracts. However, since the availability of cloud-free winter images of the study area is significantly lower than images for other seasons, a diazo enhanced image of a fall scene is recommended as the best next best alternative.

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

Health Service Areas (HSAs) - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

Health Service Areas (HSAs) are a compromise between the 3000 counties and the 50 states. An HSA may be thought of as an area that is relatively self-contained with respect to hospital care and may cross over state boundries.

An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered. PMID:24359344

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Phase 1: Evaluation report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

It appears that the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment over the Great Plains, can with a reasonable expectation, be a satisfactory component of a 90/90 production estimator. The area estimator produced more accurate area estimates for the total winter wheat region than for the mixed spring and winter wheat region of the northern Great Plains. The accuracy does appear to degrade somewhat in regions of marginal agriculture where there are small fields and abundant confusion crops. However, it would appear that these regions tend also to be marginal with respect to wheat production and thus increased area estimation errors do not greatly influence the overall production estimation accuracy in the United States. The loss of segments resulting from cloud cover appears to be a random phenomenon that introduces no significant bias into the estimates. This loss does increase the variance of the estimates.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

The Foraging Ecology of Royal and Sandwich Terns in North Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGinnis, T.W.; Emslie, S.D.

2001-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, P.H.

1976-01-01

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Misclassification bias in areal estimates

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski

1992-01-01

In addition to thematic maps, remote sensing provides estimates of area in different thematic categories. Areal estimates are frequently used for resource inventories, management planning, and assessment analyses. Misclassification causes bias in these statistical areal estimates. For example, if a small percentage of a common cover type is misclassified as a rare...

Using aerial photography to estimate wood suitable for charcoal in managed oak forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Mejía, D.; Gómez-Tagle, A.; Ghilardi, A.

2018-02-01

Mexican oak forests (genus Quercus) are frequently used for traditional charcoal production. Appropriate management programs are needed to ensure their long-term use, while conserving the biodiversity and ecosystem services, and associated benefits. A key variable needed to design these programs is the spatial distribution of standing woody biomass. A state-of-the-art methodology using small format aerial photographs was developed to estimate the total aboveground biomass (AGB) and aboveground woody biomass suitable for charcoal making (WSC) in intensively managed oak forests. We used tree crown area (CAap) measurements from very high-resolution (30 cm) orthorectified small format digital aerial photographs as the predictive variable. The CAap accuracy was validated using field measurements of the crown area (CAf). Allometric relationships between: (a) CAap versus AGB, and (b) CAap versus WSC had a high significance level (R 2 > 0.91, p < 0.0001). This approach shows that it is possible to obtain sound biomass estimates as a function of the crown area derived from digital small format aerial photographs.

Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS) approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. Methods We explored (i) the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii) the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. Results VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i) health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii) health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii) health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3), standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Conclusions Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15) are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes. PMID:23057445

Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

2016-02-01

Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

Experience with basal area estimation by prisms in lodgepole pine.

Treesearch

James M. Trappe

1957-01-01

Estimation of basal area by prisms offers intriguing possibilities for reducing time and effort in making stand inventories. Increased inventory efficiency is a particular need in stands that are relatively low in value due to small stems, predominance of low value species or heavy defect. In the Pacific Northwest, lodgepole pine characteristically forms dense low-...

Two techniques for mapping and area estimation of small grains in California using Landsat digital data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffner, E. J.; Hlavka, C. A.; Bauer, E. M.

1984-01-01

Two techniques have been developed for the mapping and area estimation of small grains in California from Landsat digital data. The two techniques are Band Ratio Thresholding, a semi-automated version of a manual procedure, and LCLS, a layered classification technique which can be fully automated and is based on established clustering and classification technology. Preliminary evaluation results indicate that the two techniques have potential for providing map products which can be incorporated into existing inventory procedures and automated alternatives to traditional inventory techniques and those which currently employ Landsat imagery.

Economic Impacts of Infrastructure Damages on Industrial Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajitani, Yoshio

This paper proposes a basic model for evaluating economic impacts on industrial sectors under the conditions that multiple infrastructures are simultaneously damaged during the earthquake disasters. Especially, focusing on the available economic data developed in the smallest spatial scale in Japan (small area statistics), economic loss estimation model based on the small area statistics and its applicability are investigated on. In the detail, a loss estimation framework, utilizing survey results on firms' activities under electricity, water and gas disruptions, and route choice models in Transportation Engineering, are applied to the case of 2004 Mid-Niigata Earthquake.

Use of remote sensing for land use policy formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Progress in studies for using remotely sensed data for assessing crop stress and in crop estimation is reported. The estimation of acreage of small forested areas in the southern lower peninsula of Michigan using LANDSAT data is evaluated. Damage to small grains caused by the cereal leaf beetle was assessed through remote sensing. The remote detection of X-disease of peach and cherry trees and of fire blight of pear and apple trees was investigated. The reliability of improving on standard methods of crop production estimation was demonstrated. Areas of virus infestation in vineyards and blueberry fields in western and southwestern Michigan were identified. The installation and systems integration of a microcomputer system for processing and making available remotely sensed data are described.

A comparison of methods for calculating population exposure estimates of daily weather for health research.

PubMed

Hanigan, Ivan; Hall, Gillian; Dear, Keith B G

2006-09-13

To explain the possible effects of exposure to weather conditions on population health outcomes, weather data need to be calculated at a level in space and time that is appropriate for the health data. There are various ways of estimating exposure values from raw data collected at weather stations but the rationale for using one technique rather than another; the significance of the difference in the values obtained; and the effect these have on a research question are factors often not explicitly considered. In this study we compare different techniques for allocating weather data observations to small geographical areas and different options for weighting averages of these observations when calculating estimates of daily precipitation and temperature for Australian Postal Areas. Options that weight observations based on distance from population centroids and population size are more computationally intensive but give estimates that conceptually are more closely related to the experience of the population. Options based on values derived from sites internal to postal areas, or from nearest neighbour sites--that is, using proximity polygons around weather stations intersected with postal areas--tended to include fewer stations' observations in their estimates, and missing values were common. Options based on observations from stations within 50 kilometres radius of centroids and weighting of data by distance from centroids gave more complete estimates. Using the geographic centroid of the postal area gave estimates that differed slightly from the population weighted centroids and the population weighted average of sub-unit estimates. To calculate daily weather exposure values for analysis of health outcome data for small areas, the use of data from weather stations internal to the area only, or from neighbouring weather stations (allocated by the use of proximity polygons), is too limited. The most appropriate method conceptually is the use of weather data from sites within 50 kilometres radius of the area weighted to population centres, but a simpler acceptable option is to weight to the geographic centroid.

The effects of rectification and Global Positioning System errors on satellite image-based estimates of forest area

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2010-01-01

Satellite image-based maps of forest attributes are of considerable interest and are used for multiple purposes such as international reporting by countries that have no national forest inventory and small area estimation for all countries. Construction of the maps typically entails, in part, rectifying the satellite images to a geographic coordinate system, observing...

Evaluation of small area crop estimation techniques using LANDSAT- and ground-derived data. [South Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amis, M. L.; Martin, M. V.; Mcguire, W. G.; Shen, S. S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Studies completed in fiscal year 1981 in support of the clustering/classification and preprocessing activities of the Domestic Crops and Land Cover project. The theme throughout the study was the improvement of subanalysis district (usually county level) crop hectarage estimates, as reflected in the following three objectives: (1) to evaluate the current U.S. Department of Agriculture Statistical Reporting Service regression approach to crop area estimation as applied to the problem of obtaining subanalysis district estimates; (2) to develop and test alternative approaches to subanalysis district estimation; and (3) to develop and test preprocessing techniques for use in improving subanalysis district estimates.

Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes estimated using density surface modeling with line transect sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanaji, Yu; Okazaki, Makoto; Miyashita, Tomio

2017-06-01

Spatial patterns of distribution, abundance, and species diversity of small odontocetes including species in the Delphinidae and Phocoenidae families were investigated using long-term dedicated sighting survey data collected between 1983 and 2006 in the North Pacific. Species diversity indices were calculated from abundance estimated using density surface modeling of line-transect data. The estimated abundance ranged from 19,521 individuals in killer whale to 1,886,022 in pantropical spotted dolphin. The predicted density maps showed that the habitats of small odontocetes corresponded well with distinct oceanic domains. Species richness was estimated to be highest between 30 and 40°N where warm- and cold-water currents converge. Simpson's Diversity Index showed latitudinal diversity gradients of decreasing species numbers toward the poles. Higher diversity was also estimated in the coastal areas and the zonal areas around 35-42°N. Coastal-offshore gradients and latitudinal gradients are known for many taxa. The zonal areas around 35°N and 40°N coincide with the Kuroshio Current and its extension and the subarctic boundary, respectively. These results suggest that the species diversity of small odontocetes primarily follows general patterns of latitudinal and longitudinal gradients, while the confluence of faunas originating in distinct water masses increases species diversify in frontal waters around 30-40°N. Population densities tended to be higher for the species inhabiting higher latitudes, but were highest for intermediate latitudes at approximately 35-40°N. According to latitudinal gradients in water temperature and biological productivity, the costs for thermoregulation will decrease in warmer low latitudes, while feeding efficiency will increase in colder high latitudes. These trade-offs could optimize population density in intermediate latitudes.

Comparative analysis of spectral unmixing and neural networks for estimating small diameter tree above-ground biomass in the State of Mississippi

Treesearch

Moham P. Tiruveedhula; Joseph Fan; Ravi R. Sadasivuni; Surya S. Durbha; David L. Evans

2010-01-01

The accumulation of small diameter trees (SDTs) is becoming a nationwide concern. Forest management practices such as fire suppression and selective cutting of high grade timber have contributed to an overabundance of SDTs in many areas. Alternative value-added utilization of SDTs (for composite wood products and biofuels) has prompted the need to estimate their...

Using ecological propensity score to adjust for missing confounders in small area studies.

PubMed

Wang, Yingbo; Pirani, Monica; Hansell, Anna L; Richardson, Sylvia; Blangiardo, Marta

2017-11-09

Small area ecological studies are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the impact of area level risk factors on health outcomes when data are only available in an aggregated form. However, the resulting estimates are often biased due to unmeasured confounders, which typically are not available from the standard administrative registries used for these studies. Extra information on confounders can be provided through external data sets such as surveys or cohorts, where the data are available at the individual level rather than at the area level; however, such data typically lack the geographical coverage of administrative registries. We develop a framework of analysis which combines ecological and individual level data from different sources to provide an adjusted estimate of area level risk factors which is less biased. Our method (i) summarizes all available individual level confounders into an area level scalar variable, which we call ecological propensity score (EPS), (ii) implements a hierarchical structured approach to impute the values of EPS whenever they are missing, and (iii) includes the estimated and imputed EPS into the ecological regression linking the risk factors to the health outcome. Through a simulation study, we show that integrating individual level data into small area analyses via EPS is a promising method to reduce the bias intrinsic in ecological studies due to unmeasured confounders; we also apply the method to a real case study to evaluate the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease hospital admissions in Greater London. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.

PubMed Central

Riggan, W B; Manton, K G; Creason, J P; Woodbury, M A; Stallard, E

1991-01-01

Often environmental hazards are assessed by examining the spatial variation of disease-specific mortality or morbidity rates. These rates, when estimated for small local populations, can have a high degree of random variation or uncertainty associated with them. If those rate estimates are used to prioritize environmental clean-up actions or to allocate resources, then those decisions may be influenced by this high degree of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the effect of this uncertainty is not to add "random noise" into the decision-making process, but to systematically bias action toward the smallest populations where uncertainty is greatest and where extreme high and low rate deviations are most likely to be manifest by chance. We present a statistical procedure for adjusting rate estimates for differences in variability due to differentials in local area population sizes. Such adjustments produce rate estimates for areas that have better properties than the unadjusted rates for use in making statistically based decisions about the entire set of areas. Examples are provided for county variation in bladder, stomach, and lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. white males for the period 1970 to 1979. PMID:1820268

Soil moisture estimation using reflected solar and emitted thermal infrared radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, R. D.; Cihlar, J.; Estes, J. E.; Heilman, J. L.; Kahle, A.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Millard, J.; Price, J. C.; Wiegand, C. L.

1978-01-01

Classical methods of measuring soil moisture such as gravimetric sampling and the use of neutron moisture probes are useful for cases where a point measurement is sufficient to approximate the water content of a small surrounding area. However, there is an increasing need for rapid and repetitive estimations of soil moisture over large areas. Remote sensing techniques potentially have the capability of meeting this need. The use of reflected-solar and emitted thermal-infrared radiation, measured remotely, to estimate soil moisture is examined.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Health Behaviors for Small Geographic Areas: Boston Validation Study, 2013

PubMed Central

Holt, James B.; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Shah, Snehal N.; Dooley, Daniel P.; Matthews, Kevin A.; Croft, Janet B.

2017-01-01

Introduction Local health authorities need small-area estimates for prevalence of chronic diseases and health behaviors for multiple purposes. We generated city-level and census-tract–level prevalence estimates of 27 measures for the 500 largest US cities. Methods To validate the methodology, we constructed multilevel logistic regressions to predict 10 selected health indicators among adults aged 18 years or older by using 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data; we applied their predicted probabilities to census population data to generate city-level, neighborhood-level, and zip-code–level estimates for the city of Boston, Massachusetts. Results By comparing the predicted estimates with their corresponding direct estimates from a locally administered survey (Boston BRFSS 2010 and 2013), we found that our model-based estimates for most of the selected health indicators at the city level were close to the direct estimates from the local survey. We also found strong correlation between the model-based estimates and direct survey estimates at neighborhood and zip code levels for most indicators. Conclusion Findings suggest that our model-based estimates are reliable and valid at the city level for certain health outcomes. Local health authorities can use the neighborhood-level estimates if high quality local health survey data are not otherwise available. PMID:29049020

Assessment of crack opening area for leak rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharples, J.K.; Bouchard, P.J.

1997-04-01

This paper outlines the background to recommended crack opening area solutions given in a proposed revision to leak before break guidance for the R6 procedure. Comparisons with experimental and analytical results are given for some selected cases of circumferential cracks in cylinders. It is shown that elastic models can provide satisfactory estimations of crack opening displacement (and area) but they become increasingly conservative for values of L{sub r} greater than approximately 0.4. The Dugdale small scale yielding model gives conservative estimates of crack opening displacement with increasing enhancement for L{sub r} values greater than 0.4. Further validation of the elastic-plasticmore » reference stress method for up to L{sub r} values of about 1.0 is presented by experimental and analytical comparisons. Although a more detailed method, its application gives a best estimate of crack opening displacement which may be substantially greater than small scale plasticity models. It is also shown that the local boundary conditions in pipework need to be carefully considered when evaluating crack opening area for through-wall bending stresses resulting from welding residual stresses or geometry discontinuities.« less

Accuracy assessment in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, A. G.; Pitts, D. E.; Feiveson, A. H.; Badhwar, G.; Ferguson, M.; Hsu, E.; Potter, J.; Chhikara, R.; Rader, M.; Ahlers, C.

1979-01-01

The Accuracy Assessment System (AAS) of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was responsible for determining the accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield, made at regular intervals throughout the crop season, and for investigating the various LACIE error sources, quantifying these errors, and relating them to their causes. Some results of using the AAS during the three years of LACIE are reviewed. As the program culminated, AAS was able not only to meet the goal of obtaining accurate statistical estimates of sampling and classification accuracy, but also the goal of evaluating component labeling errors. Furthermore, the ground-truth data processing matured from collecting data for one crop (small grains) to collecting, quality-checking, and archiving data for all crops in a LACIE small segment.

Advances in water resources monitoring from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salomonson, V. V.

1974-01-01

Nimbus-5 observations indicate that over the oceans the total precipitable water in a column of atmosphere can be estimated to within + or - 10%, the liquid water content of clouds can be estimated to within + or - 25%, areas of precipitation can be delineated, and broad estimates of the precipitation rate obtained. ERTS-1 observations permit the measurement of snow covered area to within a few percent of drainage basin area and snowline altitudes can be estimated to within 60 meters. Surface water areas as small as 1 hectare can be inventoried over large regions such as playa lakes region of West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. In addition, changes in land use on water-sheds occurring as a result of forest fires, urban development, clear cutting, or strip mining can be rapidly obtained.

Estimating diabetes prevalence by small area in England.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

Diabetes risk is linked to both deprivation and ethnicity, and so prevalence will vary considerably between areas. Prevalence differences may partly account for geographic variation in health performance indicators for diabetes, which are based on age standardized hospitalization or operation rates. A positive correlation between prevalence and health outcomes indicates that the latter are not measuring only performance. A regression analysis of prevalence rates according to age, sex and ethnicity from the Health Survey for England (HSE) is undertaken and used (together with census data) to estimate diabetes prevalence for 354 English local authorities and 8000 smaller areas (electoral wards). An adjustment for social factors is based on a prevalence gradient over area-deprivation quintiles. A Bayesian estimation approach is used allowing simple inclusion of evidence on prevalence from other or historical sources. The estimated prevalent population in England is 1.5 million (188 000 type 1 and 1.341 million type 2). At strategic health authority (StHA) level, prevalence varies from 2.4 (Thames Valley) to 4 per cent (North East London). The prevalence estimates are used to assess variations between local authorities in adverse hospitalization indicators for diabetics and to assess the relationship between diabetes-related mortality and prevalence. In particular, rates of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and coma are positively correlated with prevalence, while diabetic amputation rates are not. The methodology developed is applicable to developing small-area-prevalence estimates for a range of chronic diseases, when health surveys assess prevalence by demographic categories. In the application to diabetes prevalence, there is evidence that performance indicators as currently calculated are not corrected for prevalence.

Estimating Radiological Doses to Predators Foraging in a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

L.Soholt; G.Gonzales; P.Fresquez

2003-03-01

Since 1957, Los Alamos National Laboratory has operated Area G as its low-level, solid radioactive waste management and disposal area. Although the waste management area is developed, plants, small mammals, and avian and mammalian predators still occupy the less disturbed and revegetated portions of the land. For almost a decade, we have monitored the concentrations of selected radionuclides in soils, plants, and small mammals at Area G. The radionuclides tritium, plutonium-238, and plutonium-239 are regularly found at levels above regional background in all three media. Based on radionuclide concentrations in mice collected from 1994 to 1999, we calculated doses tomore » higher trophic levels (owl, hawk, kestrel, and coyote) that forage on the waste management area. These predators play important functions in the regional ecosystems and are an important part of local Native American traditional tales that identify the uniqueness of their culture. The estimated doses are compared to Department of Energy's interim limit of 0.1 rad/day for the protection of terrestrial wildlife. We used exposure parameters that were derived from the literature for each receptor, including Environmental Protection Agency's exposure factors handbook. Estimated doses to predators ranged from 9E-06 to 2E-04 rad/day, assuming that they forage entirely on the waste management area. These doses are greater than those calculated for predators foraging exclusively in reference areas, but are still well below the interim dose limit. We believe that these calculated doses represent upper-bound estimates of exposure for local predators because the larger predators forage over areas that are much greater than the 63-acre waste management area. Based on these results, we concluded that predators foraging on this area do not face a hazard from radiological exposure under current site conditions.« less

Plot intensity and cycle-length effects on growth and removals estimates from forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2015-01-01

Continuous forest inventory planners can allocate the budget to more plots per acre or a shorter remeasurement cycle. A higher plot intensity benefits small area estimation and allows for more precision in current status estimates. Shorter cycles may provide better estimates of growth, removals and mortality. On a fixed budget, the planner can't have both greater...

Design Issues in Small-Area Studies of Environment and Health

PubMed Central

Elliott, Paul; Savitz, David A.

2008-01-01

Background Small-area studies are part of the tradition of spatial epidemiology, which is concerned with the analysis of geographic patterns of disease with respect to environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and other factors. We focus on etiologic research, where the aim is to make inferences about spatially varying environmental factors influencing the risk of disease. Methods and results We illustrate the approach through three exemplars: a) magnetic fields from overhead electric power lines and the occurrence of childhood leukemia, which illustrates the use of geographic information systems to focus on areas with high exposure prevalence; b) drinking-water disinfection by-products and reproductive outcomes, taking advantage of large between- to within-area variability in exposures from the water supply; and c) chronic exposure to air pollutants and cardiorespiratory health, where issues of socioeconomic confounding are particularly important. Discussion The small-area epidemiologic approach assigns exposure estimates to individuals based on location of residence or other geographic variables such as workplace or school. In this way, large populations can be studied, increasing the ability to investigate rare exposures or rare diseases. The approach is most effective when there is well-defined exposure variation across geographic units, limited within-area variation, and good control for potential confounding across areas. Conclusions In conjunction with traditional individual-based approaches, small-area studies offer a valuable addition to the armamentarium of the environmental epidemiologist. Modeling of exposure patterns coupled with collection of individual-level data on subsamples of the population should lead to improved risk estimates (i.e., less potential for bias) and help strengthen etiologic inference. PMID:18709174

Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.; Bergman, D.L.

1985-01-01

Statewide regression relations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge of floods for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years. The independent variables required for estimating flood discharge for rural streams are contributing drainage area and mean annual precipitation. Main-channel slope, a variable used in previous reports, was found to contribute very little to the accuracy of the relations and was not used. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,500 square miles that are not significantly affected by regulation from manmade works. These relations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for rural unregulated streams are discussed. Basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics and the flood-frequency relations for 226 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are presented. Regression relations are investigated for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for watersheds affected by regulation from small FRS (floodwater retarding structures) built by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in their watershed protection and flood prevention program. Gaging-station data from nine FRS regulated sites in Oklahoma and one FRS regulated site in Kansas are used. For sites regulated by FRS, an adjustment of the statewide rural regression relations can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency. The statewide regression equations are used by substituting the drainage area below the FRS, or drainage area that represents the percent of the basin unregulated, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain flood-frequency estimates. Flood-frequency curves and flow-duration curves are presented for five gaged sites to illustrate the effects of FRS regulation on peak discharge.

Estimating forestland area change from inventory data

Treesearch

Paul Van Deusen; Francis Roesch; Thomas Wigley

2013-01-01

Simple methods for estimating the proportion of land changing from forest to nonforest are developed. Variance estimators are derived to facilitate significance tests. A power analysis indicates that 400 inventory plots are required to reliably detect small changes in net or gross forest loss. This is an important result because forest certification programs may...

45 CFR 284.11 - What definitions apply to this part?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING WHETHER AN INCREASE IN A STATE OR TERRITORY'S CHILD POVERTY RATE IS THE RESULT OF... estimating the number and percentage of children in poverty in each State. These methods may include national estimates based on the Current Population Survey; the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates; the annual...

An advanced algorithm for deformation estimation in non-urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Kanika; Adam, Nico

2012-09-01

This paper presents an advanced differential SAR interferometry stacking algorithm for high resolution deformation monitoring in non-urban areas with a focus on distributed scatterers (DSs). Techniques such as the Small Baseline Subset Algorithm (SBAS) have been proposed for processing DSs. SBAS makes use of small baseline differential interferogram subsets. Singular value decomposition (SVD), i.e. L2 norm minimization is applied to link independent subsets separated by large baselines. However, the interferograms used in SBAS are multilooked using a rectangular window to reduce phase noise caused for instance by temporal decorrelation, resulting in a loss of resolution and the superposition of topography and deformation signals from different objects. Moreover, these have to be individually phase unwrapped and this can be especially difficult in natural terrains. An improved deformation estimation technique is presented here which exploits high resolution SAR data and is suitable for rural areas. The implemented method makes use of small baseline differential interferograms and incorporates an object adaptive spatial phase filtering and residual topography removal for an accurate phase and coherence estimation, while preserving the high resolution provided by modern satellites. This is followed by retrieval of deformation via the SBAS approach, wherein, the phase inversion is performed using an L1 norm minimization which is more robust to the typical phase unwrapping errors encountered in non-urban areas. Meter resolution TerraSAR-X data of an underground gas storage reservoir in Germany is used for demonstrating the effectiveness of this newly developed technique in rural areas.

Socioeconomic Indicators for Small Towns. Small Town Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oregon State Univ., Corvallis. Cooperative Extension Service.

Prepared to help small towns assess community population and economic trends, this publication provides a step-by-step guide for establishing an on-going local data collection system, which is based on four local indicators and will provide accurate, up-to-date estimates of population, family income, and gross sales within a town's trade area. The…

Variability of rainfall over small areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Runnels, R. C.

1983-01-01

A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

CHARACTERIZATION OF SMALL ESTUARIES AS A COMPONENT OF A REGIONAL-SCALE MONITORING PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Large-scale environmental monitoring programs, such as EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), by nature focus on estimating the ecological condition of large geographic areas. Generally missing is the ability to provide estimates of condition of individual ...

A non-destructive method for quantifying small-diameter woody biomass in southern pine forests

Treesearch

D. Andrew Scott; Rick Stagg; Morris Smith

2006-01-01

Quantifying the impact of silvicultural treatments on woody understory vegetation largely has been accomplished by destructive sampling or through estimates of frequency and coverage. In studies where repeated measures of understory biomass across large areas are needed, destructive sampling and percent cover estimates are not satisfactory. For example, estimates of...

Estimating accuracy of land-cover composition from two-stage cluster sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stehman, S.V.; Wickham, J.D.; Fattorini, L.; Wade, T.D.; Baffetta, F.; Smith, J.H.

2009-01-01

Land-cover maps are often used to compute land-cover composition (i.e., the proportion or percent of area covered by each class), for each unit in a spatial partition of the region mapped. We derive design-based estimators of mean deviation (MD), mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation (CORR) to quantify accuracy of land-cover composition for a general two-stage cluster sampling design, and for the special case of simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) at each stage. The bias of the estimators for the two-stage SRSWOR design is evaluated via a simulation study. The estimators of RMSE and CORR have small bias except when sample size is small and the land-cover class is rare. The estimator of MAD is biased for both rare and common land-cover classes except when sample size is large. A general recommendation is that rare land-cover classes require large sample sizes to ensure that the accuracy estimators have small bias. ?? 2009 Elsevier Inc.

Model-based inference for small area estimation with sampling weights

PubMed Central

Vandendijck, Y.; Faes, C.; Kirby, R.S.; Lawson, A.; Hens, N.

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates about health outcomes for areas or domains where only few to no samples are available is the goal of small area estimation (SAE). Often, we rely on health surveys to obtain information about health outcomes. Such surveys are often characterised by a complex design, stratification, and unequal sampling weights as common features. Hierarchical Bayesian models are well recognised in SAE as a spatial smoothing method, but often ignore the sampling weights that reflect the complex sampling design. In this paper, we focus on data obtained from a health survey where the sampling weights of the sampled individuals are the only information available about the design. We develop a predictive model-based approach to estimate the prevalence of a binary outcome for both the sampled and non-sampled individuals, using hierarchical Bayesian models that take into account the sampling weights. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of our proposed method with other established methods. The results indicate that our proposed method achieves great reductions in mean squared error when compared with standard approaches. It performs equally well or better when compared with more elaborate methods when there is a relationship between the responses and the sampling weights. The proposed method is applied to estimate asthma prevalence across districts. PMID:28989860

Equations for estimating biomass, foliage area, and sapwood of small trees in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Steven T. Brantley; Morgan L. Schulte; Paul V. Bolstad; Chelcy F. Miniat

2016-01-01

Small trees and shrubs play an important role in forest diversity and regeneration and may contribute substantially to ecosystem fluxes of carbon and water; however, relatively little attention is given to quantifying the contribution of small trees to forest processes. One reason for this may be that the allometric equations developed for large trees tend to...

Analysis of scanner data for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R. (Principal Investigator); Cicone, R. C.; Kauth, R. J.; Malila, W. A.; Pont, W.; Thelen, B.; Sellman, A.

1981-01-01

Accomplishments for a machine-oriented small grains labeler T&E, and for Argentina ground data collection are reported. Features of the small grains labeler include temporal-spectral profiles, which characterize continuous patterns of crop spectral development, and crop calendar shift estimation, which adjusts for planting date differences of fields within a crop type. Corn and soybean classification technology development for area estimation for foreign commodity production forecasting is reported. Presentations supporting quarterly project management reviews and a quarterly technical interchange meeting are also included.

Seven-year results in managing a small woodlot in southern Maryland

Treesearch

Richard H. Fenton; Ralph P. Broomall

1963-01-01

In the five Maryland counties south of Baltimore, there are 825,000 acres of commercial forest land. About half of this area is estimated to be in true farm woodlands; that is, in small tracts of 40 acres or so that are part of working farms.

Estimating small amplitude tremor sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katakami, S.; Ito, Y.; Ohta, K.

2017-12-01

Various types of slow earthquakes have been recently observed at both the updip and downdip edges of the coseismic slip areas [Obara and Kato, 2016]. Frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help us to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Maeda and Obara [2009] estimated spatiotemporal distribution of seismic energy radiation from low-frequency tremors. They applied their method to only the tremors, whose hypocenters had been decided with multiple station method. However, recently Katakami et al. (2016) identified a lot of continuous tremors with small amplitude that were not recorded multiple stations. These small events should be important to reveal the whole slow earthquake activity and to understand strain condition around a plate boundary in subduction zones. First, we apply the modified frequency scanning method (mFSM) at a single station to NIED Hi-net data in the southwestern Japan to understand whole tremor activity which were included weak signal tremors. Second, we developed a method to identify the tremor source area by using the difference of apparent tremor energy at each station by mFSM. We estimated the apparent source tremor energy after correcting both site amplification factor and geometrical spreading. Finally we calculate a tremor source area if the difference of apparent tremor energy between each pair of sites is the smallest. We checked a validity of this analysis by using only tremors which were already detected by envelope correlation method [Idehara et al., 2014]. We calculated the average amplitude as apparent tremor energy in 5 minutes window after occurring tremor at each station. Our results almost consistent to hypocenters which were determined the envelope correlation method. We successfully determined apparent tremor source areas of weak continuous tremors after estimating possible tremor occurrence time windows by using mFSM.

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

2017-04-01

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

A comparison of NEWS and SPARROW models to understand sources of nitrogen delivered to US coastal areas

EPA Science Inventory

The relative contributions of different anthropogenic and natural sources of in-stream nitrogen (N) cannot be directly measured at whole-watershed scales. Hence, source attribution estimates beyond the scale of small catchments must rely on models. Although such estimates have be...

Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2013-10-14

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

Estimating ground water yield in small research basins

Treesearch

Elon S. Verry

2003-01-01

An analysis of ground water recharge in 32 small research watersheds shows the average flow of ground water out of the watershed (deep seepage) is 45% of streamflow and ranges from 8 to 350 mm/year when apportioned over the watershed area. It is time to meld ground water and small watershed science. The use of we11 networks and the evaluation of ground water well...

Does Core Area Theory Apply to STIs in Rural Environments?

PubMed Central

Gesink, Dionne C; Sullivan, Ashleigh B; Norwood, Todd; Serre, Marc L; Miller, William C

2012-01-01

Background Our objective was to determine the extent to which geographical core areas for gonorrhea and syphilis are located in rural areas, as compared to urban areas. Methods Incident gonorrhea (January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2010) and syphilis (January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2010) rates were estimated and mapped by census tract and quarter. Rurality was measured using percent rural and rural-urban commuting area (RUCA; rural, small town, micropolitan, or urban). SaTScan was used to identify spatiotemporal clusters of significantly elevated rates of infection. Clusters lasting five years or longer were considered core areas; clusters of shorter duration were considered outbreaks. Clusters were overlaid on maps of rurality and qualitatively assessed for correlation. Results Twenty gonorrhea core areas were identified; 65% in urban centers, 25% in micropolitan areas, and the remaining 10% were geographically large capturing combinations of urban, micropolitan, small town and rural environments. Ten syphilis core areas were identified with 80% in urban centers and 20% capturing two or more RUCAs. All ten of the syphilis core areas (100%) overlapped with gonorrhea core areas. Conclusions Gonorrhea and syphilis rates were high for rural parts of North Carolina; however, no core areas were identified exclusively for small towns or rural areas. The main pathway of rural STI transmission may be through the interconnectedness of urban, micropolitan, small town and rural areas. Directly addressing STIs in urban and micropolitan communities may also indirectly help address STI rates in rural and small town communities. PMID:23254115

Finding big shots: small-area mapping and spatial modelling of obesity among Swiss male conscripts.

PubMed

Panczak, Radoslaw; Held, Leonhard; Moser, André; Jones, Philip A; Rühli, Frank J; Staub, Kaspar

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, as in other developed countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased substantially since the early 1990s. Most of the analyses so far have been based on sporadic surveys or self-reported data and did not offer potential for small-area analyses. The goal of this study was to investigate spatial variation and determinants of obesity among young Swiss men using recent conscription data. A complete, anonymized dataset of conscription records for the 2010-2012 period were provided by Swiss Armed Forces. We used a series of Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models to investigate the spatial pattern of obesity across 3,187 postcodes, varying them by type of random effects (spatially unstructured and structured), level of adjustment by individual (age and professional status) and area-based [urbanicity and index of socio-economic position (SEP)] characteristics. The analysed dataset consisted of 100,919 conscripts, out of which 5,892 (5.8 %) were obese. Crude obesity prevalence increased with age among conscripts of lower individual and area-based SEP and varied greatly over postcodes. Best model's estimates of adjusted odds ratios of obesity on postcode level ranged from 0.61 to 1.93 and showed a strong spatial pattern of obesity risk across the country. Odds ratios above 1 concentrated in central and north Switzerland. Smaller pockets of elevated obesity risk also emerged around cities of Geneva, Fribourg and Lausanne. Lower estimates were observed in North-East and East as well as south of the Alps. Importantly, small regional outliers were observed and patterning did not follow administrative boundaries. Similarly as with crude obesity prevalence, the best fitting model confirmed increasing risk of obesity with age and among conscripts of lower professional status. The risk decreased with higher area-based SEP and, to a lesser degree - in rural areas. In Switzerland, there is a substantial spatial variation in obesity risk among young Swiss men. Small-area estimates of obesity risk derived from conscripts records contribute to its understanding and could be used to design further studies and interventions.

Effects of off-road vehicles on vertebrates in the California desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bury, R. Bruce; Luckenbach, Roger A.; Busack, Stephen D.

1977-01-01

Off-road vehicle (ORV) use provides a form of outdoor recreation that is increasingly popular. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of these machines on creosote shrub habitat and associated wildlife in the western California Desert. Comparisons at eight paired sites (Control and ORV use) demonstrate that ORV-use areas have significantly fewer species of vertebrates, greatly reduced abundance of individuals, and noticeably lower reptile and small mammal biomass. Diversity, density, and biomass of reptiles and small mammals are inversely related to the level of ORV usage. The number of individuals found in heavily used and pit areas was 55% and 20%, respectively, of that present in undisturbed sites. Biomass estimates were even lower (23% and 17%, respectively). Censuses at three localities also showed decreased diversity, density, and biomass estimates of breeding birds in DRV-used areas. Present evidence indicates that off-road vehicles have a negative effect on desert wildlife over large areas. This widespread impact must be recognized to manage and conserve resources in DRV-use areas.

Using Small Drone (UAS) Imagery to Bridge the Gap Between Field- and Satellite-Based Measurements of Vegetation Structure and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. T.; Estes, L. D.; Gago, X.; Debats, S. R.; Caylor, K. K.; Manfreda, S.; Oudemans, P.; Ciraolo, G.; Maltese, A.; Nadal, M.; Estrany, J.

2016-12-01

Leaf area is an important ecosystem variable that relates to vegetation biomass, productivity, water and nutrient use in natural and agricultural systems globally. Since the 1980s, optical satellite image-based estimates of leaf area based on indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have greatly improved understanding of vegetation structure, function, and responses to disturbance at landscape (10^3 km2) to continental (10^6 km2) spatial scales. However, at landscape scales, satellites have failed to capture many leaf area patterns indicative of vegetation succession, crop types, stress and other conditions important for ecological processes. Small drones (UAS - unmanned aerial systems) offer new means for assessing leaf area and vegetation structure at higher spatial resolutions (<1 m) and land cover features such as substrate exposure that may affect estimates of vegetation structure in satellite data. Yet it is unclear how differences in spatial and spectral resolution between UAS and satellite data affect their relationships to each other, and to common field measurements of leaf area (e.g. LiCOR photosensors) and land cover. Constraining these relationships is important for leveraging UAS data to improve scaling of field data on leaf area and biomass to satellite data from Landsat, Sentinel-2, and increasing numbers of commercial sensors. Here, we quantify relationships among field, UAS and satellite estimates of vegetation leaf area and biomass in three case study landscapes spanning semi-arid Mediterranean (Matera, Southern Italy and Mallorca, Spain) and North American temperate ecosystems (New Jersey, USA). We assess how land cover and sensor spectral characteristics affect UAS and satellite-derived NDVI, leaf-area and biomass estimates. Then, we assess the fidelity of UAS, WorldView-2, and Landsat leaf-area and biomass estimates to field-measured landscape changes and variability, including vegetation recovery from fire (Mallorca), and leaf-area and biomass variability due to orchard type and agro-ecosystem management (Matera, New Jersey). Finally, we highlight promising ways forward for improving field data collection and the use of UAS observations to monitor vegetation leaf-area and biomass change at landscape scales in natural and agricultural systems.

NATIONAL INVENTORIES FOR AREA SOURCE FUEL COMBUSTION AND GASOLINE MARKETING IN 1999

EPA Science Inventory

The product will be a set of estimates of county-level 1999 emissions of all relevant air pollutants from gasoline marketing and from the combustion of fuel by "area" sources, i.e., those too small be be required to report their emissions individually.

Marginal economic value of streamflow: A case study for the Colorado River Basin

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Benjamin L. Harding; Elizabeth A. Payton

1990-01-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and...

Bayesian Small Area Estimates of Diabetes Incidence by United States County, 2009

PubMed Central

Barker, Lawrence E.; Thompson, Theodore J.; Kirtland, Karen A; Boyle, James P; Geiss, Linda S; McCauley, Mary M.; Albright, Ann L.

2015-01-01

In the United States, diabetes is common and costly. Programs to prevent new cases of diabetes are often carried out at the level of the county, a unit of local government. Thus, efficient targeting of such programs requires county-level estimates of diabetes incidence–the fraction of the non-diabetic population who received their diagnosis of diabetes during the past 12 months. Previously, only estimates of prevalence–the overall fraction of population who have the disease–have been available at the county level. Counties with high prevalence might or might not be the same as counties with high incidence, due to spatial variation in mortality and relocation of persons with incident diabetes to another county. Existing methods cannot be used to estimate county-level diabetes incidence, because the fraction of the population who receive a diabetes diagnosis in any year is too small. Here, we extend previously developed methods of Bayesian small-area estimation of prevalence, using diffuse priors, to estimate diabetes incidence for all U.S. counties based on data from a survey designed to yield state-level estimates. We found high incidence in the southeastern United States, the Appalachian region, and in scattered counties throughout the western U.S. Our methods might be applicable in other circumstances in which all cases of a rare condition also must be cases of a more common condition (in this analysis, “newly diagnosed cases of diabetes” and “cases of diabetes”). If appropriate data are available, our methods can be used to estimate proportion of the population with the rare condition at greater geographic specificity than the data source was designed to provide. PMID:26279666

Applications of Small Area Estimation to Generalization with Subclassification by Propensity Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Wendy

2018-01-01

Policymakers have grown increasingly interested in how experimental results may generalize to a larger population. However, recently developed propensity score-based methods are limited by small sample sizes, where the experimental study is generalized to a population that is at least 20 times larger. This is particularly problematic for methods…

Use of LANDSAT data to assess waterfowl habitat quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, J. E.; Gilmer, D. S. (Principal Investigator); Work, E. A., Jr.; Rebel, D. L.; Roller, N. E. G.

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The capability of mapping ponds over a very large area was demonstrated, with multidate, multiframe LANDSAT imagery. A small double sample of aircraft data made it possible to adjust a LANDSAT large area census. Terrain classification was improved by using multitemporal LANDSAT data. Waterfowl production was estimated, using remotely determined pond data, in conjunction with FWS estimates of breeding population. Relative waterfowl habitat quality was characterized on a section by section basis.

Estimating Fuel Bed Loadings in Masticated Areas

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Ros Wu

2006-01-01

Masticated fuel treatments that chop small trees, shrubs, and dead woody material into smaller pieces to reduce fuel bed depth are used increasingly as a mechanical means to treat fuels. Fuel loading information is important to monitor changes in fuels. The commonly used planar intercept method however, may not correctly estimate fuel loadings because masticated fuels...

Handbook for inventorying surface fuels and biomass in the Interior West

Treesearch

James K. Brown; Rick D. Oberheu; Cameron M. Johnston

1982-01-01

Presents comprehensive procedures for inventorying weight per unit area of living and dead surface vegetation, to facilitate estimation of biomass and appraisal of fuels. Provides instructions for conducting fieldwork and calculating estimates of downed woody material, forest floor litter and duff, herbaceous vegetation, shrubs, and small conifers. Procedures produce...

A simulation of small to giant Antarctic iceberg evolution: Differential impact on climatology estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, Thomas; Wesche, Christine; Timmermann, Ralph; Hellmer, Hartmut H.; Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We present a simulation of Antarctic iceberg drift and melting that includes small, medium-sized, and giant tabular icebergs with a realistic size distribution. For the first time, an iceberg model is initialized with a set of nearly 7000 observed iceberg positions and sizes around Antarctica. The study highlights the necessity to account for larger and giant icebergs in order to obtain accurate melt climatologies. We simulate drift and lateral melt using iceberg-draft averaged ocean currents, temperature, and salinity. A new basal melting scheme, originally applied in ice shelf melting studies, uses in situ temperature, salinity, and relative velocities at an iceberg's bottom. Climatology estimates of Antarctic iceberg melting based on simulations of small (≤2.2 km), "small-to-medium-sized" (≤10 km), and small-to-giant icebergs (including icebergs >10 km) exhibit differential characteristics: successive inclusion of larger icebergs leads to a reduced seasonality of the iceberg meltwater flux and a shift of the mass input to the area north of 58°S, while less meltwater is released into the coastal areas. This suggests that estimates of meltwater input solely based on the simulation of small icebergs introduce a systematic meridional bias; they underestimate the northward mass transport and are, thus, closer to the rather crude treatment of iceberg melting as coastal runoff in models without an interactive iceberg model. Future ocean simulations will benefit from the improved meridional distribution of iceberg melt, especially in climate change scenarios where the impact of iceberg melt is likely to increase due to increased calving from the Antarctic ice sheet.

A simulation of small to giant Antarctic iceberg evolution: differential impact on climatology estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, Thomas; Wesche, Christine; Timmermann, Ralph; Hellmer, Hartmut H.; Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We present a simulation of Antarctic iceberg drift and melting that includes small (<2.2 km), medium-sized, and giant tabular icebergs with lengths of more than 10km. The model is initialized with a realistic size distribution obtained from satellite observations. Our study highlights the necessity to account for larger and giant icebergs in order to obtain accurate melt climatologies. Taking iceberg modeling a step further, we simulate drift and melting using iceberg-draft averaged ocean currents, temperature, and salinity. A new basal melting scheme, originally applied in ice shelf melting studies, uses in situ temperature, salinity, and relative velocities at an iceberg's keel. The climatology estimates of Antarctic iceberg melting based on simulations of small, 'small-to-medium'-sized, and small-to-giant icebergs (including icebergs > 10km) exhibit differential characteristics: successive inclusion of larger icebergs leads to a reduced seasonality of the iceberg meltwater flux and a shift of the mass input to the area north of 58°S, while less meltwater is released into the coastal areas. This suggests that estimates of meltwater input solely based on the simulation of small icebergs introduce a systematic meridional bias; they underestimate the northward mass transport and are, thus, closer to the rather crude treatment of iceberg melting as coastal runoff in models without an interactive iceberg model. Future ocean simulations will benefit from the improved meridional distribution of iceberg melt, especially in climate change scenarios where the impact of iceberg melt is likely to increase due to increased calving from the Antarctic ice sheet.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, R. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The crop identification procedures used performed were for spring small grains and are conducive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology; however, the crop calendars require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The integrated technology is capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. Barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated because LANDSAT sample segment data was not available for high density barley of primary importance in foreign regions and the low density segments examined were not judged to give indicative or unequvocal results. Generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analysis to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment.

Municipal health expectancy in Japan: decreased healthy longevity of older people in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.

PubMed

Fukuda, Yoshiharu; Nakamura, Keiko; Takano, Takehito

2005-06-14

Little is known about small-area variation in healthy longevity of older people and its socioeconomic correlates. This study aimed to estimate health expectancy at 65 years (HE65) at the municipal level in Japan, and to examine its relation to area socio-demographic conditions. HE65 of municipalities (N = 3361) across Japan was estimated by a linear regression formula with life expectancy at 65 years and the prevalence of those certificated as needing nursing care. The relation between HE65 and area socio-demographic indicators was examined using correlation coefficients. The estimated HE65 (years) ranged from 13.13 to 17.39 for men and from 14.84 to 20.53 for women. HE65 was significantly positively correlated with the proportion of elderly and per capita income, and negatively correlated with the percentage of households of a single elderly person, divorce rate, and unemployment rate. These relations were stronger in large municipalities (with a population of more than 100,000) than in small and medium-size municipalities. A decrease in healthy longevity of older people was associated with a higher percentage of households of a single elderly person and divorce rate, and lower socioeconomic conditions. This study suggests that older people in urban areas are susceptible to socio-demographic factors, and a social support network for older people living in socioeconomically disadvantaged conditions should be encouraged.

Three Different Methods of Estimating LAI in a Small Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.; Beverly, D.

2015-12-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is a critical input of models that improve predictive understanding of ecology, hydrology, and climate change. Multiple techniques exist to quantify LAI, most of which are labor intensive, and all often fail to converge on similar estimates. . Recent large-scale bark beetle induced mortality greatly altered LAI, which is now dominated by younger and more metabolically active trees compared to the pre-beetle forest. Tree mortality increases error in optical LAI estimates due to the lack of differentiation between live and dead branches in dense canopy. Our study aims to quantify LAI using three different LAI methods, and then to compare the techniques to each other and topographic drivers to develop an effective predictive model of LAI. This study focuses on quantifying LAI within a small (~120 ha) beetle infested watershed in Wyoming's Snowy Range Mountains. The first technique estimated LAI using in-situ hemispherical canopy photographs that were then analyzed with Hemisfer software. The second LAI estimation technique was use of the Kaufmann 1982 allometrerics from forest inventories conducted throughout the watershed, accounting for stand basal area, species composition, and the extent of bark beetle driven mortality. The final technique used airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) first DMS returns, which were used to estimating canopy heights and crown area. LIDAR final returns provided topographical information and were then ground-truthed during forest inventories. Once data was collected, a fractural analysis was conducted comparing the three methods. Species composition was driven by slope position and elevation Ultimately the three different techniques provided very different estimations of LAI, but each had their advantage: estimates from hemisphere photos were well correlated with SWE and snow depth measurements, forest inventories provided insight into stand health and composition, and LIDAR were able to quickly and efficiently cover a very large area.

Using mixture tuned match filtering to measure changes in subpixel vegetation area in Las Vegas, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brelsford, Christa; Shepherd, Doug

2013-09-01

In desert cities, securing sufficient water supply to meet the needs of both existing population and future growth is a complex problem with few easy solutions. Grass lawns are a major driver of water consumption and accurate measurements of vegetation area are necessary to understand drivers of changes in household water consumption. Measuring vegetation change in a heterogeneous urban environment requires sub-pixel estimation of vegetation area. Mixture Tuned Match Filtering has been successfully applied to target detection for materials that only cover small portions of a satellite image pixel. There have been few successful applications of MTMF to fractional area estimation, despite theory that suggests feasibility. We use a ground truth dataset over ten times larger than that available for any previous MTMF application to estimate the bias between ground truth data and matched filter results. We find that the MTMF algorithm underestimates the fractional area of vegetation by 5-10%, and calculate that averaging over 20 to 30 pixels is necessary to correct this bias. We conclude that with a large ground truth dataset, using MTMF for fractional area estimation is possible when results can be estimated at a lower spatial resolution than the base image. When this method is applied to estimating vegetation area in Las Vegas, NV spatial and temporal trends are consistent with expectations from known population growth and policy goals.

Error analysis of leaf area estimates made from allometric regression models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feiveson, A. H.; Chhikara, R. S.

1986-01-01

Biological net productivity, measured in terms of the change in biomass with time, affects global productivity and the quality of life through biochemical and hydrological cycles and by its effect on the overall energy balance. Estimating leaf area for large ecosystems is one of the more important means of monitoring this productivity. For a particular forest plot, the leaf area is often estimated by a two-stage process. In the first stage, known as dimension analysis, a small number of trees are felled so that their areas can be measured as accurately as possible. These leaf areas are then related to non-destructive, easily-measured features such as bole diameter and tree height, by using a regression model. In the second stage, the non-destructive features are measured for all or for a sample of trees in the plots and then used as input into the regression model to estimate the total leaf area. Because both stages of the estimation process are subject to error, it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the final plot leaf area estimates. This paper illustrates how a complete error analysis can be made, using an example from a study made on aspen trees in northern Minnesota. The study was a joint effort by NASA and the University of California at Santa Barbara known as COVER (Characterization of Vegetation with Remote Sensing).

Small-area estimation of the probability of toxocariasis in New York City based on sociodemographic neighborhood composition.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; Haseeb, M A

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is increasingly recognized as an important neglected infection of poverty (NIP) in developed countries, and may constitute the most important NIP in the United States (US) given its association with chronic sequelae such as asthma and poor cognitive development. Its potential public health burden notwithstanding, toxocariasis surveillance is minimal throughout the US and so the true burden of disease remains uncertain in many areas. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted a representative serologic survey of toxocariasis to estimate the prevalence of infection in diverse US subpopulations across different regions of the country. Using the NHANES III surveillance data, the current study applied the predicted probabilities of toxocariasis to the sociodemographic composition of New York census tracts to estimate the local probability of infection across the city. The predicted probability of toxocariasis ranged from 6% among US-born Latino women with a university education to 57% among immigrant men with less than a high school education. The predicted probability of toxocariasis exhibited marked spatial variation across the city, with particularly high infection probabilities in large sections of Queens, and smaller, more concentrated areas of Brooklyn and northern Manhattan. This investigation is the first attempt at small-area estimation of the probability surface of toxocariasis in a major US city. While this study does not define toxocariasis risk directly, it does provide a much needed tool to aid the development of toxocariasis surveillance in New York City.

Small-Area Estimation of the Probability of Toxocariasis in New York City Based on Sociodemographic Neighborhood Composition

PubMed Central

Walsh, Michael G.; Haseeb, M. A.

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is increasingly recognized as an important neglected infection of poverty (NIP) in developed countries, and may constitute the most important NIP in the United States (US) given its association with chronic sequelae such as asthma and poor cognitive development. Its potential public health burden notwithstanding, toxocariasis surveillance is minimal throughout the US and so the true burden of disease remains uncertain in many areas. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted a representative serologic survey of toxocariasis to estimate the prevalence of infection in diverse US subpopulations across different regions of the country. Using the NHANES III surveillance data, the current study applied the predicted probabilities of toxocariasis to the sociodemographic composition of New York census tracts to estimate the local probability of infection across the city. The predicted probability of toxocariasis ranged from 6% among US-born Latino women with a university education to 57% among immigrant men with less than a high school education. The predicted probability of toxocariasis exhibited marked spatial variation across the city, with particularly high infection probabilities in large sections of Queens, and smaller, more concentrated areas of Brooklyn and northern Manhattan. This investigation is the first attempt at small-area estimation of the probability surface of toxocariasis in a major US city. While this study does not define toxocariasis risk directly, it does provide a much needed tool to aid the development of toxocariasis surveillance in New York City. PMID:24918785

The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bizzell, R. M.; Prior, H. L.; Payne, R. W.; Disler, J. M.

1983-01-01

The results from the U.S./Canada Wheat and Barley Exploratory Experiment which was completed during FY 1980 are presented. The results indicate that the new crop identification procedures performed well for spring small grains and that they are conductive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology. However, the crop calendars will require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The evaluation showed the integrated technology to be capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. However, barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated. The low-density segments examined were judged not to give indicative or unequivocal results. It is concluded that, generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analyses to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment. It is further concluded that a strong potential exists for establishing a highly efficient technology or spring small grains.

Water demand-supply analysis in a large spatial area based on the processes of evapotranspiration and runoff

PubMed Central

Maruyama, Toshisuke

2007-01-01

To estimate the amount of evapotranspiration in a river basin, the “short period water balance method” was formulated. Then, by introducing the “complementary relationship method,” the amount of evapotranspiration was estimated seasonally, and with reasonable accuracy, for both small and large areas. Moreover, to accurately estimate river discharge in the low water season, the “weighted statistical unit hydrograph method” was proposed and a procedure for the calculation of the unit hydrograph was developed. Also, a new model, based on the “equivalent roughness method,” was successfully developed for the estimation of flood runoff from newly reclaimed farmlands. Based on the results of this research, a “composite reservoir model” was formulated to analyze the repeated use of irrigation water in large spatial areas. The application of this model to a number of watershed areas provided useful information with regard to the realities of water demand-supply systems in watersheds predominately dedicated to paddy fields, in Japan. PMID:24367144

Estimation of canopy attributes in beech forests using true colour digital images from a small fixed-wing UAV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chianucci, Francesco; Disperati, Leonardo; Guzzi, Donatella; Bianchini, Daniele; Nardino, Vanni; Lastri, Cinzia; Rindinella, Andrea; Corona, Piermaria

2016-05-01

Accurate estimates of forest canopy are essential for the characterization of forest ecosystems. Remotely-sensed techniques provide a unique way to obtain estimates over spatially extensive areas, but their application is limited by the spectral and temporal resolution available from these systems, which is often not suited to meet regional or local objectives. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) as remote sensing platforms has recently gained increasing attention, but their applications in forestry are still at an experimental stage. In this study we described a methodology to obtain rapid and reliable estimates of forest canopy from a small UAV equipped with a commercial RGB camera. The red, green and blue digital numbers were converted to the green leaf algorithm (GLA) and to the CIE L*a*b* colour space to obtain estimates of canopy cover, foliage clumping and leaf area index (L) from aerial images. Canopy attributes were compared with in situ estimates obtained from two digital canopy photographic techniques (cover and fisheye photography). The method was tested in beech forests. UAV images accurately quantified canopy cover even in very dense stand conditions, despite a tendency to not detecting small within-crown gaps in aerial images, leading to a measurement of a quantity much closer to crown cover estimated from in situ cover photography. Estimates of L from UAV images significantly agreed with that obtained from fisheye images, but the accuracy of UAV estimates is influenced by the appropriate assumption of leaf angle distribution. We concluded that true colour UAV images can be effectively used to obtain rapid, cheap and meaningful estimates of forest canopy attributes at medium-large scales. UAV can combine the advantage of high resolution imagery with quick turnaround series, being therefore suitable for routine forest stand monitoring and real-time applications.

Estimates of average annual tributary inflow to the lower Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen-Joyce, Sandra J.

1987-01-01

Estimates of tributary inflow by basin or area and by surface water or groundwater are presented in this report and itemized by subreaches in tabular form. Total estimated average annual tributary inflow to the Colorado River between Hoover Dam and Mexico, excluding the measured tributaries, is 96,000 acre-ft or about 1% of the 7.5 million acre-ft/yr of Colorado River water apportioned to the States in the lower Colorado River basin. About 62% of the tributary inflow originates in Arizona, 30% in California, and 8% in Nevada. Tributary inflow is a small component in the water budget for the river. Most of the quantities of unmeasured tributary inflow were estimated in previous studies and were based on mean annual precipitation for 1931-60. Because mean annual precipitation for 1951-80 did not differ significantly from that of 1931-60, these tributary inflow estimates are assumed to be valid for use in 1984. Measured average annual runoff per unit drainage area on the Bill Williams River has remained the same. Surface water inflow from unmeasured tributaries is infrequent and is not captured in surface reservoirs in any of the States; it flows to the Colorado River gaging stations. Estimates of groundwater inflow to the Colorad River valley. Average annual runoff can be used in a water budget; although in wet years, runoff may be large enough to affect the calculation of consumptive use and to be estimated from hydrographs for the Colorado River valley are based on groundwater recharge estimates in the bordering areas, which have not significantly changed through time. In most areas adjacent to the Colorado River valley, groundwater pumpage is small and pumping has not significantly affected the quantity of groundwater discharged to the Colorado River valley. In some areas where groundwater pumpage exceeds the quantity of groundwater discharge and water levels have declined, the quantity of discharge probably has decreased and groundwater inflow to the Colorado River valley will eventually be reduced if not stopped completely. Groundwater discharged at springs below Hoover Dam is unused and flows directly to the Colorado River. (Lantz-PTT)

Mixed Estimation for a Forest Survey Sample Design

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

1999-01-01

Three methods of estimating the current state of forest attributes over small areas for the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station's annual forest sampling design are compared. The three methods were (I) simple moving average, (II) single imputation of plot data that had been updated by externally developed models, and (III) local application of a global...

Total Phosphorus Loads for Selected Tributaries to Sebago Lake, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2001-01-01

The streamflow and water-quality datacollection networks of the Portland Water District (PWD) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as of February 2000 were analyzed in terms of their applicability for estimating total phosphorus loads for selected tributaries to Sebago Lake in southern Maine. The long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Songo River and for small, ungaged tributaries are similar to the long-term unit-area mean annual flows for the Crooked River and other gaged tributaries to Sebago Lake, based on a regression equation that estimates mean annual streamflows in Maine. Unit-area peak streamflows of Sebago Lake tributaries can be quite different, based on a regression equation that estimates peak streamflows for Maine. Crooked River had a statistically significant positive relation (Kendall's Tau test, p=0.0004) between streamflow and total phosphorus concentration. Panther Run had a statistically significant negative relation (p=0.0015). Significant positive relations may indicate contributions from nonpoint sources or sediment resuspension, whereas significant negative relations may indicate dilution of point sources. Total phosphorus concentrations were significantly larger in the Crooked River than in the Songo River (Wilcoxon rank-sum test, p<0.0001). Evidence was insufficient, however, to indicate that phosphorus concentrations from medium-sized drainage basins, at a significance level of 0.05, were different from each other or that concentrations in small-sized drainage basins were different from each other (Kruskal-Wallis test, p= 0.0980, 0.1265). All large- and medium-sized drainage basins were sampled for total phosphorus approximately monthly. Although not all small drainage basins were sampled, they may be well represented by the small drainage basins that were sampled. If the tributaries gaged by PWD had adequate streamflow data, the current PWD tributary monitoring program would probably produce total phosphorus loading data that would represent all gaged and ungaged tributaries to Sebago Lake. Outside the PWD tributary-monitoring program, the largest ungaged tributary to Sebago Lake contains 1.5 percent of the area draining to the lake. In the absence of unique point or nonpoint sources of phosphorus, ungaged tributaries are unlikely to have total phosphorus concentrations that differ significantly from those in the small tributaries that have concentration data. The regression method, also known as the rating-curve method, was used to estimate the annual total phosphorus load for Crooked River, Northwest River, and Rich Mill Pond Outlet for water years 1996-98. The MOVE.1 method was used to estimate daily streamflows for the regression method at Northwest River and Rich Mill Pond Outlet, where streamflows were not continuously monitored. An averaging method also was used to compute annual loads at the three sites. The difference between the regression estimate and the averaging estimate for each of the three tributaries was consistent with what was expected from previous studies.

New dimension analyses with error analysis for quaking aspen and black spruce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, K. D.; Botkin, D. B.; Feiveson, A. H.

1987-01-01

Dimension analysis for black spruce in wetland stands and trembling aspen are reported, including new approaches in error analysis. Biomass estimates for sacrificed trees have standard errors of 1 to 3%; standard errors for leaf areas are 10 to 20%. Bole biomass estimation accounts for most of the error for biomass, while estimation of branch characteristics and area/weight ratios accounts for the leaf area error. Error analysis provides insight for cost effective design of future analyses. Predictive equations for biomass and leaf area, with empirically derived estimators of prediction error, are given. Systematic prediction errors for small aspen trees and for leaf area of spruce from different site-types suggest a need for different predictive models within species. Predictive equations are compared with published equations; significant differences may be due to species responses to regional or site differences. Proportional contributions of component biomass in aspen change in ways related to tree size and stand development. Spruce maintains comparatively constant proportions with size, but shows changes corresponding to site. This suggests greater morphological plasticity of aspen and significance for spruce of nutrient conditions.

Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reddy, Michael M.; Schuster, Paul; Kendall, Carol; Reddy, Micaela B.

2006-01-01

18O is an ideal tracer for characterizing hydrological processes because it can be reliably measured in several watershed hydrological compartments. Here, we present multiyear isotopic data, i.e. 18O variations (δ18O), for precipitation inputs, surface water and groundwater in the Shingobee River Headwaters Area (SRHA), a well-instrumented research catchment in north-central Minnesota. SRHA surface waters exhibit δ18O seasonal variations similar to those of groundwaters, and seasonal δ18O variations plotted versus time fit seasonal sine functions. These seasonal δ18O variations were interpreted to estimate surface water and groundwater mean residence times (MRTs) at sampling locations near topographically closed-basin lakes. MRT variations of about 1 to 16 years have been estimated over an area covering about 9 km2 from the basin boundary to the most downgradient well. Estimated MRT error (±0·3 to ±0·7 years) is small for short MRTs and is much larger (±10 years) for a well with an MRT (16 years) near the limit of the method. Groundwater transit time estimates based on Darcy's law, tritium content, and the seasonal δ18O amplitude approach appear to be consistent within the limits of each method. The results from this study suggest that use of the δ18O seasonal variation method to determine MRTs can help assess groundwater recharge areas in small headwaters catchments.

Characterization of surface and ground water δ18O seasonal variation and its use for estimating groundwater residence times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reddy, Michael M.; Schuster, Paul F.; Kendall, Carol; Reddy, Micaela B.

2006-01-01

18O is an ideal tracer for characterizing hydrological processes because it can be reliably measured in several watershed hydrological compartments. Here, we present multiyear isotopic data, i.e. 18O variations (δ18O), for precipitation inputs, surface water and groundwater in the Shingobee River Headwaters Area (SRHA), a well-instrumented research catchment in north-central Minnesota. SRHA surface waters exhibit δ18O seasonal variations similar to those of groundwaters, and seasonal δ18O variations plotted versus time fit seasonal sine functions. These seasonal δ18O variations were interpreted to estimate surface water and groundwater mean residence times (MRTs) at sampling locations near topographically closed-basin lakes. MRT variations of about 1 to 16 years have been estimated over an area covering about 9 km2 from the basin boundary to the most downgradient well. Estimated MRT error (±0·3 to ±0·7 years) is small for short MRTs and is much larger (±10 years) for a well with an MRT (16 years) near the limit of the method. Groundwater transit time estimates based on Darcy's law, tritium content, and the seasonal δ18O amplitude approach appear to be consistent within the limits of each method. The results from this study suggest that use of the δ18O seasonal variation method to determine MRTs can help assess groundwater recharge areas in small headwaters catchments.

Estimation of aquifer scale proportion using equal area grids: assessment of regional scale groundwater quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belitz, Kenneth; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Landon, Matthew K.; Fram, Miranda S.; Johnson, Tyler D.

2010-01-01

The proportion of an aquifer with constituent concentrations above a specified threshold (high concentrations) is taken as a nondimensional measure of regional scale water quality. If computed on the basis of area, it can be referred to as the aquifer scale proportion. A spatially unbiased estimate of aquifer scale proportion and a confidence interval for that estimate are obtained through the use of equal area grids and the binomial distribution. Traditionally, the confidence interval for a binomial proportion is computed using either the standard interval or the exact interval. Research from the statistics literature has shown that the standard interval should not be used and that the exact interval is overly conservative. On the basis of coverage probability and interval width, the Jeffreys interval is preferred. If more than one sample per cell is available, cell declustering is used to estimate the aquifer scale proportion, and Kish's design effect may be useful for estimating an effective number of samples. The binomial distribution is also used to quantify the adequacy of a grid with a given number of cells for identifying a small target, defined as a constituent that is present at high concentrations in a small proportion of the aquifer. Case studies illustrate a consistency between approaches that use one well per grid cell and many wells per cell. The methods presented in this paper provide a quantitative basis for designing a sampling program and for utilizing existing data.

Gridded rainfall estimation for distributed modeling in western mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreda, F.; Cong, S.; Schaake, J.; Smith, M.

2006-05-01

Estimation of precipitation in mountainous areas continues to be problematic. It is well known that radar-based methods are limited due to beam blockage. In these areas, in order to run a distributed model that accounts for spatially variable precipitation, we have generated hourly gridded rainfall estimates from gauge observations. These estimates will be used as basic data sets to support the second phase of the NWS-sponsored Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP 2). One of the major foci of DMIP 2 is to better understand the modeling and data issues in western mountainous areas in order to provide better water resources products and services to the Nation. We derive precipitation estimates using three data sources for the period of 1987-2002: 1) hourly cooperative observer (coop) gauges, 2) daily total coop gauges and 3) SNOw pack TELemetry (SNOTEL) daily gauges. The daily values are disaggregated using the hourly gauge values and then interpolated to approximately 4km grids using an inverse-distance method. Following this, the estimates are adjusted to match monthly mean values from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Several analyses are performed to evaluate the gridded estimates for DMIP 2 experiments. These gridded inputs are used to generate mean areal precipitation (MAPX) time series for comparison to the traditional mean areal precipitation (MAP) time series derived by the NWS' California-Nevada River Forecast Center for model calibration. We use two of the DMIP 2 basins in California and Nevada: the North Fork of the American River (catchment area 885 sq. km) and the East Fork of the Carson River (catchment area 922 sq. km) as test areas. The basins are sub-divided into elevation zones. The North Fork American basin is divided into two zones above and below an elevation threshold. Likewise, the Carson River basin is subdivided in to four zones. For each zone, the analyses include: a) overall difference, b) annual difference, c) typical year monthly comparison, and d) regression fit of the MAPX and MAP data. In terms of mean areal precipitation, overall differences between the MAP and MAPX time series are very small for the North Fork American River elevation zones. For the East Fork Carson River zones, the over all difference is up to 10 percent. The difference tends to be high when the elevation zones are small in area. In our presentation, we will show the results of our analyses and discuss future evaluations of these precipitation estimates using distributed and lumped hydrologic models.

Peak flow regression equations For small, ungaged streams in Maine: Comparing map-based to field-based variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2015-01-01

Regression equations to estimate peak streamflows with 1- to 500-year recurrence intervals (annual exceedance probabilities from 99 to 0.2 percent, respectively) were developed for small, ungaged streams in Maine. Equations presented here are the best available equations for estimating peak flows at ungaged basins in Maine with drainage areas from 0.3 to 12 square miles (mi2). Previously developed equations continue to be the best available equations for estimating peak flows for basin areas greater than 12 mi2. New equations presented here are based on streamflow records at 40 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with a minimum of 10 years of recorded peak flows between 1963 and 2012. Ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the best explanatory variables for the regression equations. Traditional map-based explanatory variables were compared to variables requiring field measurements. Two field-based variables—culvert rust lines and bankfull channel widths—either were not commonly found or did not explain enough of the variability in the peak flows to warrant inclusion in the equations. The best explanatory variables were drainage area and percent basin wetlands; values for these variables were determined with a geographic information system. Generalized least-squares regression was used with these two variables to determine the equation coefficients and estimates of accuracy for the final equations.

Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates.

PubMed

LeDell, Erin; Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC.

Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates

PubMed Central

Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

2015-01-01

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC. PMID:26279737

Comparing Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data: Optimal Strategies Suggested by a Spectral Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.

Equations for estimating synthetic unit-hydrograph parameter values for small watersheds in Lake County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Marquardt, J.S.

1997-01-01

Design hydrographs computed from design storms, simple models of abstractions (interception, depression storage, and infiltration), and synthetic unit hydrographs provide vital information for stormwater, flood-plain, and water-resources management throughout the United States. Rainfall and runoff data for small watersheds in Lake County collected between 1990 and 1995 were studied to develop equations for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters on the basis of watershed and storm characteristics. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters of interest were the time of concentration (TC) and watershed-storage coefficient (R) for the Clark unit-hydrograph method, the unit-graph lag (UL) for the Soil Conservation Service (now known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service) dimensionless unit hydrograph, and the hydrograph-time lag (TL) for the linear-reservoir method for unit-hydrograph estimation. Data from 66 storms with effective-precipitation depths greater than 0.4 inches on 9 small watersheds (areas between 0.06 and 37 square miles (mi2)) were utilized to develop the estimation equations, and data from 11 storms on 8 of these watersheds were utilized to verify (test) the estimation equations. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters were determined by calibration using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hydrograph Package HEC-1 (TC, R, and UL) or by manual analysis of the rainfall and run-off data (TL). The relation between synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters, and watershed and storm characteristics was determined by multiple linear regression of the logarithms of the parameters and characteristics. Separate sets of equations were developed with watershed area and main channel length as the starting parameters. Percentage of impervious cover, main channel slope, and depth of effective precipitation also were identified as important characteristics for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters. The estimation equations utilizing area had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.873, 0.961, 0.968, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively, and the estimation equations utilizing main channel length had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.845, 0.957, 0.961, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively. Simulation of the measured hydrographs for the verification storms utilizing TC and R obtained from the estimation equations yielded good results without calibration. The peak discharge for 8 of the 11 storms was estimated within 25 percent and the time-to-peak discharge for 10 of the 11 storms was estimated within 20 percent. Thus, application of the estimation equations to determine synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters for design-storm simulation may result in reliable design hydrographs; as long as the physical characteristics of the watersheds under consideration are within the range of those for the watersheds in this study (area: 0.06-37 mi2, main channel length: 0.33-16.6 miles, main channel slope: 3.13-55.3 feet per mile, and percentage of impervious cover: 7.32-40.6 percent). The estimation equations are most reliable when applied to watersheds with areas less than 25 mi2.

State estimation for autopilot control of small unmanned aerial vehicles in windy conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poorman, David Paul

The use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) both in the military and civil realms is growing. This is largely due to the proliferation of inexpensive sensors and the increase in capability of small computers that has stemmed from the personal electronic device market. Methods for performing accurate state estimation for large scale aircraft have been well known and understood for decades, which usually involve a complex array of expensive high accuracy sensors. Performing accurate state estimation for small unmanned aircraft is a newer area of study and often involves adapting known state estimation methods to small UAVs. State estimation for small UAVs can be more difficult than state estimation for larger UAVs due to small UAVs employing limited sensor suites due to cost, and the fact that small UAVs are more susceptible to wind than large aircraft. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the ability of existing methods of state estimation for small UAVs to accurately capture the states of the aircraft that are necessary for autopilot control of the aircraft in a Dryden wind field. The research begins by showing which aircraft states are necessary for autopilot control in Dryden wind. Then two state estimation methods that employ only accelerometer, gyro, and GPS measurements are introduced. The first method uses assumptions on aircraft motion to directly solve for attitude information and smooth GPS data, while the second method integrates sensor data to propagate estimates between GPS measurements and then corrects those estimates with GPS information. The performance of both methods is analyzed with and without Dryden wind, in straight and level flight, in a coordinated turn, and in a wings level ascent. It is shown that in zero wind, the first method produces significant steady state attitude errors in both a coordinated turn and in a wings level ascent. In Dryden wind, it produces large noise on the estimates for its attitude states, and has a non-zero mean error that increases when gyro bias is increased. The second method is shown to not exhibit any steady state error in the tested scenarios that is inherent to its design. The second method can correct for attitude errors that arise from both integration error and gyro bias states, but it suffers from lack of attitude error observability. The attitude errors are shown to be more observable in wind, but increased integration error in wind outweighs the increase in attitude corrections that such increased observability brings, resulting in larger attitude errors in wind. Overall, this work highlights many technical deficiencies of both of these methods of state estimation that could be improved upon in the future to enhance state estimation for small UAVs in windy conditions.

Chloride mass-balance method for estimating ground water recharge in arid areas: examples from western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazuhair, Abdulghaffar S.; Wood, Warren W.

1996-11-01

The chloride mass-balance method, which integrates time and aerial distribution of ground water recharge, was applied to small alluvial aquifers in the wadi systems of the Asir and Hijaz mountains in western Saudi Arabia. This application is an extension of the method shown to be suitable for estimating recharge in regional aquifers in semi-arid areas. Because the method integrates recharge in time and space it appears to be, with certain assumptions, particularly well suited for and areas with large temporal and spatial variation in recharge. In general, recharge was found to be between 3 to 4% of precipitation — a range consistent with recharge rates found in other and and semi-arid areas of the earth.

Chloride mass-balance method for estimating ground water recharge in arid areas: Examples from western Saudi Arabia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bazuhair, A.S.; Wood, W.W.

1996-01-01

The chloride mass-balance method, which integrates time and aerial distribution of ground water recharge, was applied to small alluvial aquifers in the wadi systems of the Asir and Hijaz mountains in western Saudi Arabia. This application is an extension of the method shown to be suitable for estimating recharge in regional aquifers in semi-arid areas. Because the method integrates recharge in time and space it appears to be, with certain assumptions, particularly well suited for and areas with large temporal and spatial variation in recharge. In general, recharge was found to be between 3 to 4% of precipitation - a range consistent with recharge rates found in other arid and semi-arid areas of the earth.

A study on modeling nitrogen dioxide concentrations using land-use regression and conventionally used exposure assessment methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Giehae; Bell, Michelle L.; Lee, Jong-Tae

2017-04-01

The land-use regression (LUR) approach to estimate the levels of ambient air pollutants is becoming popular due to its high validity in predicting small-area variations. However, only a few studies have been conducted in Asian countries, and much less research has been conducted on comparing the performances and applied estimates of different exposure assessments including LUR. The main objectives of the current study were to conduct nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure assessment with four methods including LUR in the Republic of Korea, to compare the model performances, and to estimate the empirical NO2 exposures of a cohort. The study population was defined as the year 2010 participants of a government-supported cohort established for bio-monitoring in Ulsan, Republic of Korea. The annual ambient NO2 exposures of the 969 study participants were estimated with LUR, nearest station, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging. Modeling was based on the annual NO2 average, traffic-related data, land-use data, and altitude of the 13 regularly monitored stations. The final LUR model indicated that area of transportation, distance to residential area, and area of wetland were important predictors of NO2. The LUR model explained 85.8% of the variation observed in the 13 monitoring stations of the year 2009. The LUR model outperformed the others based on leave-one out cross-validation comparing the correlations and root-mean square error. All NO2 estimates ranged from 11.3-18.0 ppb, with that of LUR having the widest range. The NO2 exposure levels of the residents differed by demographics. However, the average was below the national annual guidelines of the Republic of Korea (30 ppb). The LUR models showed high performances in an industrial city in the Republic of Korea, despite the small sample size and limited data. Our findings suggest that the LUR method may be useful in similar settings in Asian countries where the target region is small and availability of data is low.

Statistically extracted fundamental watershed variables for estimating the loads of total nitrogen in small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kronholm, Scott C.; Capel, Paul D.; Terziotti, Silvia

2016-01-01

Accurate estimation of total nitrogen loads is essential for evaluating conditions in the aquatic environment. Extrapolation of estimates beyond measured streams will greatly expand our understanding of total nitrogen loading to streams. Recursive partitioning and random forest regression were used to assess 85 geospatial, environmental, and watershed variables across 636 small (<585 km2) watersheds to determine which variables are fundamentally important to the estimation of annual loads of total nitrogen. Initial analysis led to the splitting of watersheds into three groups based on predominant land use (agricultural, developed, and undeveloped). Nitrogen application, agricultural and developed land area, and impervious or developed land in the 100-m stream buffer were commonly extracted variables by both recursive partitioning and random forest regression. A series of multiple linear regression equations utilizing the extracted variables were created and applied to the watersheds. As few as three variables explained as much as 76 % of the variability in total nitrogen loads for watersheds with predominantly agricultural land use. Catchment-scale national maps were generated to visualize the total nitrogen loads and yields across the USA. The estimates provided by these models can inform water managers and help identify areas where more in-depth monitoring may be beneficial.

[Microbiological quality of the air in "small gastronomy point"].

PubMed

Wójcik-Stopczyńska, Barbara

2006-01-01

The aim of this work was the estimation of microbial contamination of the air in "small gastronomy point". The study included three places, which have been separated on the ground of their function: 1. area of subsidiaries, 2. area of distribution (sale and serving meal), 3. area of consumption. The total numbers of aerobic mesophilic bacteria, yeasts and moulds were determined by sedimentation method. Taxonomy units of fungal aerosol were also estimated. The samples of air were collected in 16 investigation points in the morning (8-8.30) and in the afternoon (14-14.30). Four series of measurements were carried out and in general 128 of air samples were tested. The results showed that numbers of bacteria, yeasts and moulds were variable and received respectively 30-3397, 0-254 and 0-138 cfu x m(-3). Microbial contamination of air changed depending on area character (the highest average count of bacteria occurred in the air of consumption area and fungi in subsidiaries area), time of a day (contamination of the air increased in the afternoon) and determination date. Only in single samples the numbers of bacteria and fungi were higher than recommended level. Pigmentary bacteria had high participation in total count of bacteria and filamentous fungi were represented mostly by Penicillium sp. and Cladosporium sp.

Sampling throughfall and stemflow in young loblolly pine plantations

Treesearch

S.J. Zarnoch; D.A. Abrahamson; P.M. Dougherty

2002-01-01

Throughfall and stemflow estimates were obtained on a rain-event basis for small (0.09-hectare) plots established in a young loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in North Carolina. The plots were exposed to specific fertilization and irrigation treatments, which resulted in a wide range of basal areas and leaf area indices. Coefficients of variation were also...

Bridging the gap between strategic and management forest inventories

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Strategic forest inventory programs collect information for a large number of variables on a relatively sparse array of field plots. Data from these inventories are used to produce estimates for large areas such as states and provinces, regions, or countries. The purpose of management forest inventories is to guide management decisions for small areas such as stands....

Regional forest cover estimation via remote sensing: the calibration center concept

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Elizabeth A. Cook; Robin L. Graham; Robin L. Graham

1994-01-01

A method for combining Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery, and other biogeographic data to estimate forest cover over large regions is applied and evaluated at two locations. In this method, TM data are used to classify a small area (calibration center) into forest/nonforest; the resulting forest cover map is then...

The importance of landscape diversity for carbon fluxes at the landscape level: small-scale heterogeneity matters

Treesearch

Katrin Premke; Katrin Attermeyer; Jurgen Augustin; Alvaro Cabezas; Peter Casper; Detlef Deumlich; Jorg Gelbrecht; Horst H. Gerke; Arthur Gessler; Hans-Peter Grossart; Sabine Hilt; Michael Hupfer; Thomas Kalettka; Zachary Kayler; Gunnar Lischeid; Michael Sommer; Dominik Zak

2016-01-01

Landscapes can be viewed as spatially heterogeneous areas encompassing terrestrial and aquatic domains. To date, most landscape carbon (C) fluxes have been estimated by accounting for terrestrial ecosystems, while aquatic ecosystems have been largely neglected. However, a robust assessment of C fluxes on the landscape scale requires the estimation of fluxes within and...

Inverse estimation of Vcmax, leaf area index, and the Ball-Berry parameter from carbon and energy fluxes

Treesearch

Adam Wolf; Kanat Akshalov; Nicanor Saliendra; Douglas A. Johnson; Emilio A. Laca

2006-01-01

Canopy fluxes of CO2 and energy can be modeled with high fidelity using a small number of environmental variables and ecosystem parameters. Although these ecosystem parameters are critically important for modeling canopy fluxes, they typically are not measured with the same intensity as ecosystem fluxes. We developed an algorithm to estimate leaf...

Small-area estimation of forest attributes within fire boundaries

Treesearch

T. Frescino; G. Moisen; K. Adachi; J. Breidt

2014-01-01

Wildfires are gaining more attention every year as they burn more frequently, more intensely, and across larger landscapes. Generating timely estimates of forest resources within fire perimeters is important for land managers to quickly determine the impact of fi res on U.S. forests. The U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program needs tools to...

Exploration of a Dynamic Merging Scheme for Precipitation Estimation over a Small Urban Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Azerji, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel, ,, Dr.; Han, Dawei, ,, Prof.

2016-04-01

The accuracy of quantitative precipitation estimation is of significant importance for urban areas due to the potentially damaging consequences that can result from pluvial flooding. Improved accuracy could be accomplished by merging rain gauge measurements with weather radar data through different merging methods. Several factors may affect the accuracy of the merged data, and the gauge density used for merging is one of the most important. However, if there are no gauges inside the research area, then a gauge network outside the research area can be used for the merging. Generally speaking, the denser the rain gauge network is, the better the merging results that can be achieved. However, in practice, the rain gauge network around the research area is fixed, and the research question is about the optimal merging area. The hypothesis is that if the merging area is too small, there are fewer gauges for merging and thus the result would be poor. If the merging area is too large, gauges far away from the research area can be included in merging. However, due to their large distances, those gauges far away from the research area provide little relevant information to the study and may even introduce noise in merging. Therefore, an optimal merging area that produces the best merged rainfall estimation in the research area could exist. To test this hypothesis, the distance from the centre of the research area and the number of merging gauges around the research area were gradually increased and merging with a new domain of radar data was then performed. The performance of the new merging scheme was compared with a gridded interpolated rainfall from four experimental rain gauges installed inside the research area for validation. The result of this analysis shows that there is indeed an optimum distance from the centre of research area and consequently an optimum number of rain gauges that produce the best merged rainfall data inside the research area. This study is of important and practical value for estimating rainfall in an urban catchment (when there are no gauges available inside the catchment) by merging weather radar with rain gauge data from outside of the catchment. This has not been reported in any literature before now.

Estimates of ground-water recharge from precipitation to glacial-deposit and bedrock aquifers on Lopez, San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw islands, San Juan County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orr, Laura A.; Bauer, Henry H.; Wayenberg, Judith A.

2002-01-01

An important source of fresh water on Lopez, San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw Islands in San Juan County off the northwestern coast of Washington is glacial-deposit and bedrock aquifers. Two methods were used to estimate recharge from precipitation to the water tables on the islands. A daily near-surface water-balance method, the Deep Percolation Model (DPM), was used to simulate water budgets for the period October 1, 1996, through September 30, 1998 (water years 1997-98) for six small drainage basins?three on Lopez Island and one each on San Juan, Orcas, and Shaw Islands. The calibrated soil and subsoil parameters from the DPM for each small basin were then used in island-wide applications of the DPM where the direct runoff component (which is not available on an island-wide basis) was simulated, rather than input, and calibration was not required. A spatial distribution of annual recharge was simulated for each island, with island averages of: Lopez Island, 2.49 inches per year; San Juan Island, 1.99 inches per year; Orcas Island, 1.46 inches per year; and Shaw Island, 1.44 inches per year.A chloride mass-balance method that requires measurements of atmospheric chloride deposition, precipitation, streamflow, and chloride concentrations in ground water was used to estimate recharge to the glacial-deposit aquifers of Lopez Island. Only average recharge could be estimated using this method rather than area-specific recharge. Average recharge for Lopez Island estimated by this method was only 0.63 inch per year. The range of chloride concentrations in ground-water samples from selected wells indicates that the average recharge in areas of glacial deposits is between 0.29 and 1.95 inches per year. Recharge simulated using the DPM for two drainage basins on Lopez Island overlain by glacial deposits are 2.76 and 2.64 inches per year. Sources of chloride in ground water other than from the atmosphere would cause the recharge estimated by the chloride mass-balance method to be less than the actual recharge, therefore these estimates may represent lower limits which are, at least, consistent with the higher simulated recharge from the DPM. The average island-wide recharge is most closely related to the amount of area overlain by glacial deposits. Thus, even though Lopez Island receives the least precipitation, it has the most recharge per square mile because it proportionally has the largest area overlain by glacial deposits. Recharge simulated by the DPM for areas of shallow to outcropping bedrock generally were less than 1.5 inches per year, but recharge simulated in areas of glacial deposits ranged from less than 0.5 to 3 inches per year, with recharge as high as 9 inches per year in some small areas.

Estimates of streamflow characteristics for selected small streams, Baker River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, John R.

1987-01-01

Regression equations were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at eight ungaged sites on small streams in the Baker River basin in the North Cascade Mountains, Washington, that could be suitable for run-of-the-river hydropower development. The regression equations were obtained by relating known streamflow characteristics at 25 gaging stations in nearby basins to several physical and climatic variables that could be easily measured in gaged or ungaged basins. The known streamflow characteristics were mean annual flows, 1-, 3-, and 7-day low flows and high flows, mean monthly flows, and flow duration. Drainage area and mean annual precipitation were not the most significant variables in all the regression equations. Variance in the low flows and the summer mean monthly flows was reduced by including an index of glacierized area within the basin as a third variable. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 25 to 88%, and the largest errors were associated with the low flow characteristics. Discharge measurements made at the eight sites near midmonth each month during 1981 were used to estimate monthly mean flows at the sites for that period. These measurements also were correlated with concurrent daily mean flows from eight operating gaging stations. The correlations provided estimates of mean monthly flows that compared reasonably well with those estimated by the regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Small ponds play big role in greenhouse gas emissions from inland waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holgerson, M.; Raymond, P. A.

2017-12-01

Inland waters are an important part of the global carbon cycle, but there is uncertainty in estimating their greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty stems from different models and variable estimates of surface water gas concentrations, gas exchange rates, and the global size distribution of water bodies. Emissions from small water bodies are especially difficult to estimate because they are not globally mapped and few studies have assessed their greenhouse gas concentrations and gas exchange rates. To overcome these limitations, we studied greenhouse gases and gas exchange rates in small ponds in temperate forests of the northeastern United States. We then compiled our data with direct measurements of CO2 and CH4 concentrations from 427 ponds and lakes worldwide, and upscaled to estimate greenhouse gas emissions using estimates of gas exchange rates and the size distribution of lakes. We found that small ponds play a disproportionately large role in greenhouse gas emissions. While small ponds only account for about 9% of global lakes and ponds by area, they contribute 15% of CO2 and 41% of diffusive CH4 emissions from inland freshwaters. Secondly, we measured gas exchange velocities (k) in small ponds and compiled direct measurements of k from 67 global water bodies. We found that k is low but highly variable in small ponds, and increases and becomes even more variable with lake size, a finding that is not currently included in global carbon models. In a third study, we found that gas exchange in small ponds is highly sensitive to overnight cooling, which can lead to short bursts of increased k at night, with implications for greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, these studies show that small ponds are a critical part of the global carbon cycle, and also highlight many knowledge gaps. Therefore, understanding small pond carbon cycling is an important research priority.

Incorporation of Differential Global Positioning System Measurements Using an Extended Kalman Filter for Improved Reference System Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-01

Kalman filtering. As GPS usage expands throughout the military and civilian communities, I hope this thesis provides a small contribution in this area...of the measurement’equation. In this thesis, some of the INS states not part of a measurement equation need a small amount of added noise to...estimating the state, but the variance often goes negative. A small amount of added noise in the filter keeps the variance of the state positive and does not

Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chromosomal Aberrations in Wild Mice Captured in Areas Differentially Contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Kubota, Yoshihisa; Tsuji, Hideo; Kawagoshi, Taiki; Shiomi, Naoko; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Yoshito; Fuma, Shoichi; Doi, Kazutaka; Kawaguchi, Isao; Aoki, Masanari; Kubota, Masahide; Furuhata, Yoshiaki; Shigemura, Yusaku; Mizoguchi, Masahiko; Yamada, Fumio; Tomozawa, Morihiko; Sakamoto, Shinsuke H; Yoshida, Satoshi

2015-08-18

Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, radiation effects on nonhuman biota in the contaminated areas have been a great concern. The induction of chromosomal aberrations in splenic lymphocytes of small Japanese field mice (Apodemus argenteus) and house mice (Mus musculus) inhabiting Fukushima Prefecture was investigated. In mice inhabiting the slightly contaminated area, the average frequency of dicentric chromosomes was similar to that seen in mice inhabiting a noncontaminated control area. In contrast, mice inhabiting the moderately and heavily contaminated areas showed a significant increase in the average frequencies of dicentric chromosomes. Total absorbed dose rate was estimated to be approximately 1 mGy d(-1) and 3 mGy d(-1) in the moderately and heavily contaminated areas, respectively. Chromosomal aberrations tended to roughly increase with dose rate. Although theoretically, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations was considered proportional to the absorbed dose, chromosomal aberrations in old mice (estimated median age 300 days) did not increase with radiation dose at the same rate as that observed in young mice (estimated median age 105 days).

Imputing historical statistics, soils information, and other land-use data to crop area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, C. R., Jr.; Willis, R. W.; Lautenschlager, L.

1982-01-01

In foreign crop condition monitoring, satellite acquired imagery is routinely used. To facilitate interpretation of this imagery, it is advantageous to have estimates of the crop types and their extent for small area units, i.e., grid cells on a map represent, at 60 deg latitude, an area nominally 25 by 25 nautical miles in size. The feasibility of imputing historical crop statistics, soils information, and other ancillary data to crop area for a province in Argentina is studied.

Measuring HPV vaccination coverage in Australia: comparing two alternative population-based denominators.

PubMed

Barbaro, Bianca; Brotherton, Julia M L

2015-08-01

To compare the use of two alternative population-based denominators in calculating HPV vaccine coverage in Australia by age groups, jurisdiction and remoteness areas. Data from the National HPV Vaccination Program Register (NHVPR) were analysed at Local Government Area (LGA) level, by state/territory and by the Australian Standard Geographical Classification Remoteness Structure. The proportion of females vaccinated was calculated using both the ABS ERP and Medicare enrolments as the denominator. HPV vaccine coverage estimates were slightly higher using Medicare enrolments than using the ABS estimated resident population nationally (70.8% compared with 70.4% for 12 to 17-year-old females, and 33.3% compared with 31.9% for 18 to 26-year-old females, respectively.) The greatest differences in coverage were found in the remote areas of Australia. There is minimal difference between coverage estimates made using the two denominators except in Remote and Very Remote areas where small residential populations make interpretation more difficult. Adoption of Medicare enrolments for the denominator in the ongoing program would make minimal, if any, difference to routine coverage estimates. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Urban and Small Rural Streams in Georgia, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Knaak, Andrew E.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted that updated methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in ungaged urban basins in Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations. Annual peak-flow data for urban streams from September 2008 were analyzed for 50 streamgaging stations (streamgages) in Georgia and 6 streamgages on adjacent urban streams in Florida and South Carolina having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 56 urban streamgages by fitting logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage to a Pearson Type III distribution. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system and computer algorithms. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged urban basins in Georgia. In addition to the 56 urban streamgages, 171 rural streamgages were included in the regression analysis to maintain continuity between flood estimates for urban and rural basins as the basin characteristics pertaining to urbanization approach zero. Because 21 of the rural streamgages have drainage areas less than 1 square mile, the set of equations developed for this study can also be used for estimating small ungaged rural streams in Georgia. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 227 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Four hydrologic regions were developed for Georgia. The final equations are functions of drainage area and percentage of impervious area for three of the regions and drainage area, percentage of developed land, and mean basin slope for the fourth region. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 20.0 to 74.5 percent.

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Seliske, L; Norwood, T A; McLaughlin, J R; Wang, S; Palleschi, C; Holowaty, E

2016-06-07

An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400-700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1), and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2). Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor), and an additional small community (Chatham) for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor) among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex sample survey data to identify micro areas with variation in risk factor prevalence, accounting for spatial correlation and other covariates. Application of micro area analysis techniques helps define areas for public health planning, and may be informative to surveillance and research modeling of relevant chronic disease outcomes.

Multi crop area estimation in Idaho using EDITOR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffner, E. J.

1984-01-01

The use of LANDSAT multispectral scanner digital data for multi-crop acreage estimation in the central Snake River Plain of Idaho was examined. Two acquisitions of LANDSAT data covering ground sample units selected from a U.S. Department of Agriculture sampling frame in a four country study site were used to train a maximum likelihood classifier which, subsequently, classified all picture elements in the study site. Acreage estimates for six major crops, by county and for the four counties combined, were generated from the classification using the Battesse-Fuller model for estimation by regression in small areas. Results from the regression analysis were compared to those obtained by direct expansion of the ground data. Using the LANDSAT data significantly decreased the errors associated with the estimates for the three largest acreage crops. The late date of the second LANDSAT acquisition may have contributed to the poor results for three summer crops.

The Finnish multisource national forest inventory: small-area estimation and map production

Treesearch

Erkki Tomppo

2009-01-01

A driving force motivating development of the multisource national forest inventory (MS-NFI) in connection with the Finnish national forest inventory (NFI) was the desire to obtain forest resource information for smaller areas than is possible using field data only without significantly increasing the cost of the inventory. A basic requirement for the method was that...

Regional bankfull geometry relationships for southern California mountain streams and hydrologic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrick, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

2014-09-01

This study develops and intercompares regional relationships for bankfull channel width, hydraulic depth, and cross-sectional area for southern California mountain streams based on several data sources: surveyed streams, US Geological Survey stream survey reports, and existing literature. Although considerable uncertainty exists in estimating bankfull conditions, the relationships developed from the varying data sources show significant agreement. For small watersheds with drainage area ranging from 15 to ~ 2000 km2, the estimates of bankfull top width ranged from 7.2 to 44.5 m and hydraulic depth estimates ranged from 0.35 to 1.15 m. The utility of the developed bankfull geometry regional curves is demonstrated for southern California catchments through (a) the computation of the bankfull discharge and (b) the estimation of the surface runoff response necessary to produce bankfull conditions in the streams at the outlet of these catchments. For selected locations with instantaneous flow records, the occurrence frequency of events exceeding bankfull flow was examined for the available 10-15 year span of observational records. Bankfull discharge estimates for all small watersheds in the region ranged from 1.3 to 74 m3/s, while the range at the selected gauged stream locations was from 2.6 to 16.4 m3/s. Stream locations along the Transverse Mountains of southern California showed an average occurrence frequency of less than 1 year, whereas along the Peninsular Mountains the average return period tended to be greater than 1 year. The application of the regional curves to the estimation of the surface runoff response necessary to produce bankfull conditions at the channel outlets of small catchments may be used as an index for conditions of minor flooding with saturated soils. This surface runoff response index ranges from 2.0 to 5.5 mm for a 3-hour rainfall duration for southern California watersheds greater than 15 km2 in area. Differences between the values for the Peninsular and Transverse Mountain Ranges are linked to geological, climatic, and geomorphologic differences. The developed regional geometry relationships are suitable for use in various hydrologic modeling applications, including distributed modeling with high resolution pertinent to flash flood forecasting.

Estimating CHD prevalence by small area: integrating information from health surveys and area mortality.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2008-03-01

The risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is strongly linked both to deprivation and ethnicity and so prevalence will vary considerably between areas. Variations in prevalence are important in assessing health care needs and how far CHD service provision and surgical intervention rates match need. This paper uses a regression model of prevalence rates by age, sex, region and ethnicity from the 1999 and 2003 Health Surveys for England to estimate CHD prevalence for 354 English local authority areas. To allow for the impact of social factors on prevalence, survey information on the deprivation quintile in the respondents' micro-area of residence is also used. Allowance is also made for area CHD mortality rates (obtained from aggregated vital statistics data) which are positively correlated with, and hence a proxy for, CHD prevalence rates. An application involves assessment of surgical intervention rates in relation to prevalence at the level of 28 Strategic Health Authorities.

Opportunity Beside a Small, Young Crater

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-06-02

NASA Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity captured this view of a wee crater, informally named Skylab, along the rover route. Based on the estimated age of the area sand ripples, the crater was likely formed within the past 100,000 years.

Estimation of optical properties of aerosols and bidirectional reflectance from PARASOL/POLDER data over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusaka, Takashi; Miyazaki, Go

2014-10-01

When monitoring target areas covered with vegetation from a satellite, it is very useful to estimate the vegetation index using the surface anisotropic reflectance, which is dependent on both solar and viewing geometries, from satellite data. In this study, the algorithm for estimating optical properties of atmospheric aerosols such as the optical thickness (τ), the refractive index (Nr), the mixing ratio of small particles in the bimodal log-normal distribution function (C) and the bidirectional reflectance (R) from only the radiance and polarization at the 865nm channel received by the PARASOL/POLDER is described. Parameters of the bimodal log-normal distribution function: mean radius, r1, standard deviation, σ1, of fine aerosols, and r2, σ2 of coarse aerosols were fixed, and these values were estimated from monthly averaged size distribution at AERONET sites managed by NASA near the target area. Moreover, it is assumed that the contribution of the surface reflectance with directional anisotropy to the polarized radiance received by the satellite is small because it is shown from our ground-based polarization measurements of light ray reflected by the grassland that degrees of polarization of the reflected light by the grassland are very low values at the 865nm channel. First aerosol properties were estimated from only the polarized radiance and then the bidirectional reflectance given by the Ross-Li BRDF model was estimated from only the total radiance at target areas in PARASOL/POLDER data over the Japanese islands taken on April 28, 2012 and April 25, 2010. The estimated optical thickness of aerosols was checked with those given in AERONET sites and the estimated parameters of BRDF were compared with those of vegetation measured from the radio-controlled helicopter. Consequently, it is shown that the algorithm described in the present study provides reasonable values for aerosol properties and surface bidirectional reflectance.

A spatial method to calculate small-scale fisheries effort in data poor scenarios.

PubMed

Johnson, Andrew Frederick; Moreno-Báez, Marcia; Giron-Nava, Alfredo; Corominas, Julia; Erisman, Brad; Ezcurra, Exequiel; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio

2017-01-01

To gauge the collateral impacts of fishing we must know where fishing boats operate and how much they fish. Although small-scale fisheries land approximately the same amount of fish for human consumption as industrial fleets globally, methods of estimating their fishing effort are comparatively poor. We present an accessible, spatial method of calculating the effort of small-scale fisheries based on two simple measures that are available, or at least easily estimated, in even the most data-poor fisheries: the number of boats and the local coastal human population. We illustrate the method using a small-scale fisheries case study from the Gulf of California, Mexico, and show that our measure of Predicted Fishing Effort (PFE), measured as the number of boats operating in a given area per day adjusted by the number of people in local coastal populations, can accurately predict fisheries landings in the Gulf. Comparing our values of PFE to commercial fishery landings throughout the Gulf also indicates that the current number of small-scale fishing boats in the Gulf is approximately double what is required to land theoretical maximum fish biomass. Our method is fishery-type independent and can be used to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of growth in small-scale fisheries. This new method provides an important first step towards estimating the fishing effort of small-scale fleets globally.

A multi-sensor burned area algorithm for crop residue burning in northwestern India: validation and sources of error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Marlier, M. E.; Karambelas, A. N.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.

2017-12-01

A leading source of outdoor emissions in northwestern India comes from crop residue burning after the annual monsoon (kharif) and winter (rabi) crop harvests. Agricultural burned area, from which agricultural fire emissions are often derived, can be poorly quantified due to the mismatch between moderate-resolution satellite sensors and the relatively small size and short burn period of the fires. Many previous studies use the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), which is based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product MCD64A1, as an outdoor fires emissions dataset. Correction factors with MODIS active fire detections have previously attempted to account for small fires. We present a new burned area classification algorithm that leverages more frequent MODIS observations (500 m x 500 m) with higher spatial resolution Landsat (30 m x 30 m) observations. Our approach is based on two-tailed Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) thresholds, abbreviated as ModL2T NBR, and results in an estimated 104 ± 55% higher burned area than GFEDv4.1s (version 4, MCD64A1 + small fires correction) in northwestern India during the 2003-2014 winter (October to November) burning seasons. Regional transport of winter fire emissions affect approximately 63 million people downwind. The general increase in burned area (+37% from 2003-2007 to 2008-2014) over the study period also correlates with increased mechanization (+58% in combine harvester usage from 2001-2002 to 2011-2012). Further, we find strong correlation between ModL2T NBR-derived burned area and results of an independent survey (r = 0.68) and previous studies (r = 0.92). Sources of error arise from small median landholding sizes (1-3 ha), heterogeneous spatial distribution of two dominant burning practices (partial and whole field), coarse spatio-temporal satellite resolution, cloud and haze cover, and limited Landsat scene availability. The burned area estimates of this study can be used to build a new agricultural fire emissions inventory to re-evaluate the contributions of winter agricultural fires to rural and urban air quality degradation.

Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

PubMed Central

Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

2013-01-01

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance trends. PMID:23755197

Ancient nursery area for the extinct giant shark megalodon from the Miocene of Panama.

PubMed

Pimiento, Catalina; Ehret, Dana J; Macfadden, Bruce J; Hubbell, Gordon

2010-05-10

As we know from modern species, nursery areas are essential shark habitats for vulnerable young. Nurseries are typically highly productive, shallow-water habitats that are characterized by the presence of juveniles and neonates. It has been suggested that in these areas, sharks can find ample food resources and protection from predators. Based on the fossil record, we know that the extinct Carcharocles megalodon was the biggest shark that ever lived. Previous proposed paleo-nursery areas for this species were based on the anecdotal presence of juvenile fossil teeth accompanied by fossil marine mammals. We now present the first definitive evidence of ancient nurseries for C. megalodon from the late Miocene of Panama, about 10 million years ago. We collected and measured fossil shark teeth of C. megalodon, within the highly productive, shallow marine Gatun Formation from the Miocene of Panama. Surprisingly, and in contrast to other fossil accumulations, the majority of the teeth from Gatun are very small. Here we compare the tooth sizes from the Gatun with specimens from different, but analogous localities. In addition we calculate the total length of the individuals found in Gatun. These comparisons and estimates suggest that the small size of Gatun's C. megalodon is neither related to a small population of this species nor the tooth position within the jaw. Thus, the individuals from Gatun were mostly juveniles and neonates, with estimated body lengths between 2 and 10.5 meters. We propose that the Miocene Gatun Formation represents the first documented paleo-nursery area for C. megalodon from the Neotropics, and one of the few recorded in the fossil record for an extinct selachian. We therefore show that sharks have used nursery areas at least for 10 millions of years as an adaptive strategy during their life histories.

The role of impoundments in the sediment budget of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renwick, W.H.; Smith, S.V.; Bartley, J.D.; Buddemeier, R.W.

2005-01-01

Previous work on sediment budgets for U.S. agricultural regions has concluded that most sediment derived from accelerated erosion is still on the landscape, primarily in colluvial and alluvial deposits. Here we examine the role of small impoundments in the subcontinental sediment budget. A recent inventory based on a 30-m satellite imagery reveals approximately 2.6 million ponds, while extrapolation from a sample of 1:24,000 topographic quadrangles suggests the total may be as large as 8-9 million. These ponds capture an estimated 21% of the total drainage area of the conterminous U.S., representing 25% of total sheet and rill erosion. We estimate the total sedimentation in these small impoundments using three different methods; these estimates range from 0.43 to 1.78 ?? 109 m3 yr-1. Total sedimentation in ???43,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams is estimated at 1.67 ?? 109 m3 yr-1. Total USLE erosion in 1992 was 2.4 ?? 109 m3 yr-1, and export to coastal areas is estimated at 0.6 ?? 109 m3 yr-1. Total sedimentation in impoundments is large in relation to upland erosion, in apparent contradiction to previous studies that have identified colluvial and alluvial deposition as the primary sinks. Several alternative hypotheses that could help explain this result are proposed. Regardless of which of these alternatives may prove to be the most significant in any given setting, it is clear that most sedimentation is now taking place in subaqueous rather than subaerial environments, and that small impoundments are a major sediment sink. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of estimates of basin-scale soil-moisture evapotranspiration and estimates of riparian groundwater evapotranspiration with implications for water budgets in the Verde Valley, Central Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred; Wiele, Stephen M.; Pool, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Population growth in the Verde Valley in Arizona has led to efforts to better understand water availability in the watershed. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a substantial component of the water budget and a critical factor in estimating groundwater recharge in the area. In this study, four estimates of ET are compared and discussed with applications to the Verde Valley. Higher potential ET (PET) rates from the soil-water balance (SWB) recharge model resulted in an average annual ET volume about 17% greater than for ET from the basin characteristics (BCM) recharge model. Annual BCM PET volume, however, was greater by about a factor of 2 or more than SWB actual ET (AET) estimates, which are used in the SWB model to estimate groundwater recharge. ET also was estimated using a method that combines MODIS-EVI remote sensing data and geospatial information and by the MODFLOW-EVT ET package as part of a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the study area. Annual ET volumes were about same for upper-bound MODIS-EVI ET for perennial streams as for the MODFLOW ET estimates, with the small differences between the two methods having minimal impact on annual or longer groundwater budgets for the study area.

Partitioning CloudSat Ice Water Content for Comparison with Upper-Tropospheric Ice in Global Atmospheric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W. A.; Woods, C. P.; Li, J. F.; Waliser, D. E.; Chern, J.; Tao, W.; Jiang, J. H.; Tompkins, A. M.

2010-12-01

CloudSat provides important estimates of vertically resolved ice water content (IWC) on a global scale based on radar reflectivity. These estimates of IWC have proven beneficial in evaluating the representations of ice clouds in global models. An issue when performing model-data comparisons of IWC particularly germane to this investigation, is the question of which component(s) of the frozen water mass are represented by retrieval estimates and how they relate to what is represented in models. The present study developed and applied a new technique to partition CloudSat total IWC into small and large ice hydrometeors, based on the CloudSat-retrieved ice particle size distribution (PSD) parameters. The new method allows one to make relevant model-data comparisons and provides new insights into the model’s representation of atmospheric IWC. The partitioned CloudSat IWC suggests that the small ice particles contribute to 20-30% of the total IWC in the upper troposphere when a threshold size of 100 μm is used. Sensitivity measures with respect to the threshold size, the PSD parameters, and the retrieval algorithms are presented. The new dataset is compared to model estimates, pointing to areas for model improvement. Cloud ice analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model agree well with the small IWC from CloudSat. The finite-volume multi-scale modeling framework model underestimates total IWC at 147 and 215 hPa, while overestimating the fractional contribution from the small ice species. These results are discussed in terms of their applications to, and implications for, the evaluation of global atmospheric models, providing constraints on the representations of cloud feedback and precipitation in global models, which in turn can help reduce uncertainties associated with climate change projections. Figure 1. A sample lognormal ice number distribution (red curve), and the corresponding mass distribution (black curve). The dotted line represents the cutoff size for IWC partitioning (Dc = 100 µm as an example). The partial integrals of the mass distribution for particles smaller and larger than Dc correspond to IWC<100 (green area) and IWC>100 (blue area), respectively.

Estimating population density for disease risk assessment: The importance of understanding the area of influence of traps using wild pigs as an example.

PubMed

Davis, Amy J; Leland, Bruce; Bodenchuk, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Pepin, Kim M

2017-06-01

Population density is a key driver of disease dynamics in wildlife populations. Accurate disease risk assessment and determination of management impacts on wildlife populations requires an ability to estimate population density alongside management actions. A common management technique for controlling wildlife populations to monitor and mitigate disease transmission risk is trapping (e.g., box traps, corral traps, drop nets). Although abundance can be estimated from trapping actions using a variety of analytical approaches, inference is limited by the spatial extent to which a trap attracts animals on the landscape. If the "area of influence" were known, abundance estimates could be converted to densities. In addition to being an important predictor of contact rate and thus disease spread, density is more informative because it is comparable across sites of different sizes. The goal of our study is to demonstrate the importance of determining the area sampled by traps (area of influence) so that density can be estimated from management-based trapping designs which do not employ a trapping grid. To provide one example of how area of influence could be calculated alongside management, we conducted a small pilot study on wild pigs (Sus scrofa) using two removal methods 1) trapping followed by 2) aerial gunning, at three sites in northeast Texas in 2015. We estimated abundance from trapping data with a removal model. We calculated empirical densities as aerial counts divided by the area searched by air (based on aerial flight tracks). We inferred the area of influence of traps by assuming consistent densities across the larger spatial scale and then solving for area impacted by the traps. Based on our pilot study we estimated the area of influence for corral traps in late summer in Texas to be ∼8.6km 2 . Future work showing the effects of behavioral and environmental factors on area of influence will help mangers obtain estimates of density from management data, and determine conditions where trap-attraction is strongest. The ability to estimate density alongside population control activities will improve risk assessment and response operations against disease outbreaks. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Seismic imaging of Q structures by a trans-dimensional coda-wave analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Tsutomu

2017-04-01

Wave scattering and intrinsic attenuation are important processes to describe incoherent and complex wave trains of high frequency seismic wave (>1Hz). The multiple lapse time window analysis (MLTWA) has been used to estimate scattering and intrinsic Q values by assuming constant Q in a study area (e.g., Hoshiba 1993). This study generalizes this MLTWA to estimate lateral variations of Q values under the Bayesian framework in dimension variable space. Study area is partitioned into small areas by means of the Voronoi tessellation. Scattering and intrinsic Q in each small area are constant. We define a misfit function for spatiotemporal variations of wave energy as with the original MLTWA, and maximize the posterior probability with changing not only Q values but the number and spatial layout of the Voronoi cells. This maximization is conducted by means of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rjMCMC) (Green 1995) since the number of unknown parameters (i.e., dimension of posterior probability) is variable. After a convergence to the maximum posterior, we estimate Q structures from the ensemble averages of MCMC samples around the maximum posterior probability. Synthetic tests showed stable reconstructions of input structures with reasonable error distributions. We applied this method for seismic waveform data recorded by ocean bottom seismograms at the outer-rise area off Tohoku, and estimated Q values at 4-8Hz, 8-16Hz and 16-32Hz. Intrinsic Q are nearly constant at all frequency bands, and scattering Q shows two distinct strong scattering regions at petit spot area and high seismicity area. These strong scattering are probably related to magma inclusions and fractured structure, respectively. Difference between these two areas becomes clear at high frequencies. It means that scale dependences of inhomogeneities or smaller scale inhomogeneity is important to discuss medium property and origins of structural variations. While the generalized MLTWA is based on a classical waveform modeling in constant Q medium, this method can be a fundamental basis for Q structure imaging in the crust.

Research in satellite-aided crop inventory and monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, J. D.; Dragg, J. L.; Bizzell, R. M.; Trichel, M. C. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Automated information extraction procedures for analysis of multitemporal LANDSAT data in non-U.S. crop inventory and monitoring are reviewed. Experiments to develope and evaluate crop area estimation technologies for spring small grains, summer crops, corn, and soybeans are discussed.

Improved employment data for transportation planning

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-10-01

Transportation planners typically use census data or small sample surveys to help estimate work trips in metropolitan areas. Census data are cheap to use but are only collected every 10 years and may not provide the answers that a planner is seeking....

Using chloride and chlorine-36 as soil-water tracers to estimate deep percolation at selected locations on the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford site, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prych, Edmund A.

1995-01-01

Long-term average deep-percolation rates of water from precipitation on the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in semiarid south-central Washington, as estimated by a chloride mass-balance method, range from 0.008 to 0.30 mm/yr (millimeters per year) at nine locations covered by a variety of fine-grain soils and vegetated with sagebrush and other deep-rooted plants plus sparse shallow-rooted grasses. Deep-percolation rates estimated using a chlorine-36 bomb-pulse method at three of the nine locations range from 2.1 to 3.4 mm/yr. Because the mass-balance method may underestimate percolation rates and the bomb-pulse method probably overestimates percolation rates, estimates by the two methods probably bracket actual rates. These estimates, as well as estimates by previous investigators who used different methods, are a small fraction of mean annual precipitation, which ranges from about 160 to 210 mm/yr at the different test locations. Estimates by the mass-balance method at four locations in an area that is vegetated only with sparse shallow-rooted grasses range from 0.39 to 2.0 mm/yr. Chlorine-36 data at one location in this area were sufficient only to determine that the upper limit of deep percolation is more than 5.1 mm/yr. Although estimates for locations in this area are larger than the estimates for locations with deep-rooted plants, they are at the lower end of the range of estimates for this area made by previous investigators.

Estimates of amounts of soil removal for clean-up of transuranics at NAEG offsite safety-shot sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnison, R.R.; Gilbert, R.O.

Rough estimates are given for the amount of soil removal necessary to decontaminate five representative safety-shot areas. In order to decontaminate to levels of less than 160 pCi /sup 239/Pu per gram of surface soil, it is estimated that over one-half million tons of soil would have to be removed from the five areas. This is a preliminary estimate based on summary data and concentration contour maps readily available in NAEG publications. More accurate estimates could be obtained by applying Kriging techniques to available soil data if the need arises. The inclusion of /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu activities domore » not significantly increase the soil tonnage estimates obtained for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu because of their relatively small contributions to total transuranic activity. The magnitude of the errors inherent in our use of summary data to obtain rough estimates also suggests that a revision of the tonnage estimates for /sup 239/ /sup 240/Pu to include /sup 241/Am and /sup 238/Pu is not warranted.« less

Comparison of geostatistical interpolation and remote sensing techniques for estimating long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States.

PubMed

Lee, Seung-Jae; Serre, Marc L; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Burnett, Richard T; Jerrett, Michael

2012-12-01

A better understanding of the adverse health effects of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) requires accurate estimates of PM2.5 variation at fine spatial scales. Remote sensing has emerged as an important means of estimating PM2.5 exposures, but relatively few studies have compared remote-sensing estimates to those derived from monitor-based data. We evaluated and compared the predictive capabilities of remote sensing and geostatistical interpolation. We developed a space-time geostatistical kriging model to predict PM2.5 over the continental United States and compared resulting predictions to estimates derived from satellite retrievals. The kriging estimate was more accurate for locations that were about 100 km from a monitoring station, whereas the remote sensing estimate was more accurate for locations that were > 100 km from a monitoring station. Based on this finding, we developed a hybrid map that combines the kriging and satellite-based PM2.5 estimates. We found that for most of the populated areas of the continental United States, geostatistical interpolation produced more accurate estimates than remote sensing. The differences between the estimates resulting from the two methods, however, were relatively small. In areas with extensive monitoring networks, the interpolation may provide more accurate estimates, but in the many areas of the world without such monitoring, remote sensing can provide useful exposure estimates that perform nearly as well.

Mammography Prevalence within 2 Two Years (Age 40+) - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For mammography, a woman 40 years of age or older must have reported having at least one mammography in her life. Furthermore, she should have had the most recent one within the last two years by the time of interview.

Surface Heat Balance Analysis of Tainan City on March 6, 2001 Using ASTER and Formosat-2 Data

PubMed Central

Kato, Soushi; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Liu, Cheng-Chien; Sun, Chen-Yi

2008-01-01

The urban heat island phenomenon occurs as a mixed result of anthropogenic heat discharge, decreased vegetation, and increased artificial impervious surfaces. To clarify the contribution of each factor to the urban heat island, it is necessary to evaluate the surface heat balance. Satellite remote sensing data of Tainan City, Taiwan, obtained from Terra ASTER and Formosat-2 were used to estimate surface heat balance in this study. ASTER data is suitable for analyzing heat balance because of the wide spectral range. We used Formosat-2 multispectral data to classify the land surface, which was used to interpolate some surface parameters for estimating heat fluxes. Because of the high spatial resolution of the Formosat-2 image, more roads, open spaces and small vegetation areas could be distinguished from buildings in urban areas; however, misclassifications of land cover in such areas using ASTER data would overestimate the sensible heat flux. On the other hand, the small vegetated areas detected from the Formosat-2 image slightly increased the estimation of latent heat flux. As a result, the storage heat flux derived from Formosat-2 is higher than that derived from ASTER data in most areas. From these results, we can conclude that the higher resolution land coverage map increases accuracy of the heat balance analysis. Storage heat flux occupies about 60 to 80% of the net radiation in most of the artificial surface areas in spite of their usages. Because of the homogeneity of the building roof materials, there is no contrast between the storage heat flux in business and residential areas. In sparsely vegetated urban areas, more heat is stored and latent heat is smaller than that in the forested suburbs. This result implies that density of vegetation has a significant influence in decreasing temperatures. PMID:27873856

Water use, ground-water recharge and availability, and quality of water in the Greenwich area, Fairfield County, Connecticut and Westchester County, New York, 2000-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullaney, John R.

2004-01-01

Ground-water budgets were developed for 32 small basin-based zones in the Greenwich area of southwestern Connecticut, where crystalline-bedrock aquifers supply private wells, to determine the status of residential ground-water consumption relative to rates of ground-water recharge and discharge. Estimated residential ground-water withdrawals for small basins (averaging 1.7 square miles (mi2)) ranged from 0 to 0.16 million gallons per day per square mile (Mgal/d/mi2). To develop these budgets, residential ground-water withdrawals were estimated using multiple-linear regression models that relate water use from public water supply to data on residential property characteristics. Average daily water use of households with public water supply ranged from 219 to 1,082 gallons per day (gal/d). A steady-state finite-difference ground-water- flow model was developed to track water budgets, and to estimate optimal values for hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (0.05 feet per day) and recharge to the overlying till deposits (6.9 inches) using nonlinear regression. Estimated recharge rates to the small basins ranged from 3.6 to 7.5 inches per year (in/yr) and relate to the percentage of the basin underlain by coarse- grained glacial stratified deposits. Recharge was not applied to impervious areas to account for the effects of urbanization. Net residential ground-water consumption was estimated as ground-water withdrawals increased during the growing season, and ranged from 0 to 0.9 in/yr. Long-term average stream base flows simulated by the ground-water-flow model were compared to calculated values of average base flow and low flow to determine if base flow was substantially reduced in any of the basins studied. Three of the 32 basins studied had simulated base flows less than 3 in/yr, as a result of either ground-water withdrawals or reduced recharge due to urbanization. A water-availability criteria of the difference between the 30-day 2-year low flow and the recharge rate for each basin was explored as a method to rate the status of water consumption in each basin. Water consumption ranged from 0 to 14.3 percent of available water based on this criteria for the 32 basins studied. Base-flow water quality was related to the amount of urbanized area in each basin sampled. Concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus, chloride, indicator bacteria, and the number of pesticide detections increased with basin urbanization, which ranged from 18 to 63 percent of basin area.

An estimate of field size distributions for selected sites in the major grain producing countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Podwysocki, M. H.

1977-01-01

The field size distributions for the major grain producing countries of the World were estimated. LANDSAT-1 and 2 images were evaluated for two areas each in the United States, People's Republic of China, and the USSR. One scene each was evaluated for France, Canada, and India. Grid sampling was done for representative sub-samples of each image, measuring the long and short axes of each field; area was then calculated. Each of the resulting data sets was computer analyzed for their frequency distributions. Nearly all frequency distributions were highly peaked and skewed (shifted) towards small values, approaching that of either a Poisson or log-normal distribution. The data were normalized by a log transformation, creating a Gaussian distribution which has moments readily interpretable and useful for estimating the total population of fields. Resultant predictors of the field size estimates are discussed.

Population Size Estimates for Men who Have Sex with Men and Persons who Inject Drugs.

PubMed

Oster, Alexandra M; Sternberg, Maya; Lansky, Amy; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2015-08-01

Understanding geographic variation in the numbers of men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons who inject drugs (PWID) is critical to targeting and scaling up HIV prevention programs, but population size estimates are not available at generalizable sub-national levels. We analyzed 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data on persons aged 18-59 years. We estimated weighted prevalence of recent (past 12 month) male-male sex and injection drug use by urbanicity (the degree to which a geographic area is urban) and US census region and calculated population sizes. Large metro areas (population ≥1,000,000) had higher prevalence of male-male sex (central areas, 4.4% of men; fringe areas, 2.5%) compared with medium/small metro areas (1.4%) and nonmetro areas (1.1%). Injection drug use did not vary by urbanicity and neither varied by census region. Three-quarters of MSM, but only half of PWID, resided in large metro areas. Two-thirds of MSM and two-thirds of PWID resided in the South and West. Efforts to reach MSM would benefit from being focused in large metro areas, while efforts to reach PWID should be delivered more broadly. These data allow for more effective allocation of funds for prevention programs.

Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis Canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a national park wilderness area

Treesearch

Kathryn A. Schoenecker; Mary Kay Watry; Laura E. Ellison; Michael K. Schwartz; Gordon L. Luikart

2015-01-01

Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population’s range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test...

Linking seasonal surface water dynamics with methane emissions and export from small, forested wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hondula, K. L.; Palmer, M.

2017-12-01

One of the biggest uncertainties about global methane sources and sinks is attributed to uncertainties regarding wetland area and its dynamics. This is exacerbated by confusion over the role of small, shallow water bodies like Delmarva bay wetlands that could be categorized as both wetlands and ponds. These small inland water bodies are often poorly quantified due to their size, closed forest canopies, and inter- and intra-annual variability in surface water extent. We are studying wetland-rich areas on the Delmarva Peninsula in the U.S. mid-Atlantic to address this uncertainty at the scale of individual wetland ecosystems (<1000 m2). We present data linking measurements of hydrologic regime and methane gas fluxes in Delmarva bay wetlands to explore how water level, wetland storage capacity, and water residence time influence the magnitude, source area, and fate of wetland methane emissions. We measured air-water and soil-air gas fluxes using transects of chamber measurements spanning from wetland center to upland, in order to quantify the areal extent of the methane emissions source area throughout seasonal changes in surface water inundation (water level 0 to > 1m depth). We estimated the size and temporal variability of the methane emissions source area by combining these measurements with daily estimates of the extent of surface water inundation derived from water level monitoring and a high-resolution digital elevation model. This knowledge is critical for informing land use decisions (e.g. restoring wetlands specifically for climate mitigation), the jurisdiction of environmental policies in the US, and for resolving major outstanding discrepancies in our understanding of the global methane budget.

WIC program participation--a marketing approach.

PubMed Central

Buechner, J S; Scott, H D; Smith, J L; Humphrey, A B

1991-01-01

Recent evaluation studies have described the benefits accruing to low-income women and children who participate in the Special Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). However, participation is not uniform among all groups of eligible persons. This study examines the geographic variation in WIC participation rates of eligible pregnant women in Rhode Island to determine whether the program is effective in reaching the neediest segments of the population. Eight groups of small geographic areas in Rhode Island (census tracts) were formed on the basis of need for maternal and child health services, as determined from a statistical method employing factor and cluster analysis of existing health and sociodemographic data. Among these eight groups, participation rates in WIC during 1983-84 ranged from 46 percent to more than 100 percent of estimated eligible pregnant women. The rates were positively correlated with measures of need, strongly (r = 0.92) with an index of maternal risk, and less strongly (r = 0.79) with an index of birth outcomes. The results of this study have enabled the Rhode Island WIC Program to direct its outreach efforts more specifically to geographic areas where the need for the program's assistance is greatest. The procedures described in this report comprise a technique that can be generally applied to measure program effectiveness in marketing and outreach where relevant data are available by small geographic areas. The data requirements are (a) population-based estimates of program need and (b) program utilization measures. If these data can be aggregated to a common set of small geographic areas, the use of marketing analysis techniques becomes possible, and program benefits in the area of outreach and recruitment can be realized. PMID:1910189

Harmonic analysis of dense time series of landsat imagery for modeling change in forest conditions

Treesearch

Barry Tyler Wilson

2015-01-01

This study examined the utility of dense time series of Landsat imagery for small area estimation and mapping of change in forest conditions over time. The study area was a region in north central Wisconsin for which Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and field measurements from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program are available for the decade of 2003 to 2012. For the periods...

Land Cover Mapping using GEOBIA to Estimate Loss of Salacca zalacca Trees in Landslide Area of Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permata, Anggi; Juniansah, Anwar; Nurcahyati, Eka; Dimas Afrizal, Mousafi; Adnan Shafry Untoro, Muhammad; Arifatha, Na'ima; Ramadhani Yudha Adiwijaya, Raden; Farda, Nur Mohammad

2016-11-01

Landslide is an unpredictable natural disaster which commonly happens in highslope area. Aerial photography in small format is one of acquisition method that can reach and obtain high resolution spatial data faster than other methods, and provide data such as orthomosaic and Digital Surface Model (DSM). The study area contained landslide area in Clapar, Madukara District of Banjarnegara. Aerial photographs of landslide area provided advantage in objects visibility. Object's characters such as shape, size, and texture were clearly seen, therefore GEOBIA (Geography Object Based Image Analysis) was compatible as method for classifying land cover in study area. Dissimilar with PPA (PerPixel Analyst) method that used spectral information as base object detection, GEOBIA could use spatial elements as classification basis to establish a land cover map with better accuracy. GEOBIA method used classification hierarchy to divide post disaster land cover into three main objects: vegetation, landslide/soil, and building. Those three were required to obtain more detailed information that can be used in estimating loss caused by landslide and establishing land cover map in landslide area. Estimating loss in landslide area related to damage in Salak (Salacca zalacca) plantations. This estimation towards quantity of Salak tree that were drifted away by landslide was calculated in assumption that every tree damaged by landslide had same age and production class with other tree that weren't damaged. Loss calculation was done by approximating quantity of damaged trees in landslide area with data of trees around area that were acquired from GEOBIA classification method.

Pap Smear Test Prevalence within Three Years (Age 18+) - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For Pap smear test, a woman 18 years of age or older must have reported having at least one Pap smear test in her life. Furthermore, she should have had one within the last three years by the time of interview.

FOBT - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For home-based FOBT, a person 50 years of age or older must have reported having at least one FOBT using a home test kit in his/her life. Furthermore, he/she should have had the most recent one within the last two years by the time of interview.

Using the PDSI to Estimate Summer Stream Discharge in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Implications for 20th Century Riparian Habitat Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persico, L.; Meyer, G. A.

2013-12-01

Small streams at lower elevations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) create riparian habitat in an otherwise dry environment. Riparian area can be expanded by beaver damming, which increases channel wetted area and local water tables, and allows fine-grained organic-rich sediment to accumulate. However, increases can be countered by severe drought. The loss of riparian area is potentially greatest in small basins dependent on snowpack for base flow, where prolonged severe drought may reduce base flow to zero. Discharge records are often lacking for basins < 20 km^2, making it difficult to directly examine how climate has impacted flow. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a useful proxy for large-scale variations in available moisture. PDSI values for climate divisions are estimated from spatially weighted weather station measurements of temperature and precipitation. We use divisional PDSI values to estimate discharge on GYE small streams since 1900. USGS stream-gauge sites were regressed with the corresponding PDSI for each climate division. We also use a regional (2.5° by 2.5°) reconstruction of the PDSI based on 30 tree ring chronologies (Cook et al., 2004) to estimate discharge during the most severe two and ten year droughts (AD 1150-1151 and 805-796, respectively) during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). The MCA is a period of high climate variability and widespread drought in the GYE. Significant correlations between stream discharge and the PDSI occur during the late summer and early fall and the strongest correlation between discharge and the PDSI occurs for the 3-month PDSI average centered on August. Stream-gauge records with bootstrapped correlation values greater than 0.65 were chosen for regression analyses. To estimate stream flows for ungauged stream reaches, stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed using measured stream flows and independent basin characteristics. Basin area and mean elevation are significant predictors of discharge (α < 0.05). The 1930s Dust Bowl drought was one of the most severe droughts in the past 300 years; from 1934-1935, average August discharge was reduced by 25-40% with respect to the anomalously wet early 20th century pluvial. Discharge estimates using reconstructed PDSI values for the 2- and 10-year MCA droughts (PDSI = -6 and -5, respectively) indicate that 60% of stream reaches where beaver were active in the late Holocene became ephemeral in these droughts. This analysis is supported by observations during the extreme drought of the 2000s, when ephemeral flow occurred along streams with known historical beaver activity in northern Yellowstone. Model predictions indicate that by 2030-2039 the GYE will endure persistent severe drought (mean annual PDSI = -4 to -6) (Dai, 2011), thus riparian area is likely to decrease in the coming decades. The early 20th century has been suggested to be an ideal reference for riparian habitat restoration despite anomalously wet conditions unlike current or likely future climate. Future efforts to restore riparian habitat by reducing elk browsing and increasing beaver damming will be hampered by reduced flows on small streams.

Study on Rainfall Forecasting by Using Weather Satellite Imagery in a Small Watershed Located at Mountainous Area of Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, C.; Cheng, K. S.

Using meteorological radar and satellite imagery had become an efficient tool for rainfall forecasting However few studies were aimed to predict quantitative rainfall in small watersheds for flood forecasting by using remote sensing data Due to the terrain shelter and ground clutter effect of Central Mountain Ridges the application of meteorological radar data was limited in mountainous areas of central Taiwan This study devises a new scheme to predict rainfall of a small upstream watershed by combing GOES-9 geostationary weather satellite imagery and ground rainfall records which can be applied for local quantitative rainfall forecasting during periods of typhoon and heavy rainfall Imagery of two typhoon events in 2004 and five correspondent ground raingauges records of Chitou Forest Recreational Area which is located in upstream region of Bei-Shi river were analyzed in this study The watershed accounts for 12 7 square kilometers and altitudes ranging from 1000 m to 1800 m Basin-wide Average Rainfall BAR in study area were estimated by block kriging Cloud Top Temperature CTT from satellite imagery and ground hourly rainfall records were medium correlated The regression coefficient ranges from 0 5 to 0 7 and the value decreases as the altitude of the gauge site increases The regression coefficient of CCT and next 2 to 6 hour accumulated BAR decrease as the time scale increases The rainfall forecasting for BAR were analyzed by Kalman Filtering Technique The correlation coefficient and average hourly deviates between estimated and observed value of BAR for

What We Do Not Yet Know About Global Ocean Depths, and How Satellite Altimetry Can Help

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. H. F.; Sandwell, D. T.; Marks, K. M.

2017-12-01

Half Earth's ocean floor area lies several km or more away from the nearest depth measurement. Areas more than 50 km from any sounding sum to a total area larger than the entire United States land area; areas more than 100 km from any sounding comprise a total area larger than Alaska. In remote basins the majority of available data were collected before the mid-1960s, and so often are mis-located by many km, as well as mis-digitized. Satellite altimetry has mapped the marine gravity field with better than 10 km horizontal resolution, revealing nearly all seamounts taller than 2 km; new data can detect some seamounts less than 1 km tall. Seafloor topography can be estimated from satellite altimetry if sediment is thin and relief is due to seafloor spreading and mid-plate volcanism. The accuracy of the estimate depends on the geological nature of the relief and on the accuracy of the soundings available to calibrate the estimation. At best, the estimate is a band-pass-filtered version of the true depth variations, but does not resolve the small-scale seafloor roughness needed to model mixing and dissipation in the ocean. In areas of thick or variable sediment cover there can be little correlation between depth and altimetry. Yet altimeter-estimated depth is the best guess available in most of the ocean. The MH370 search area provides an illustration. Prior to the search it was very sparsely (1% to 5%) covered by soundings, many of these were old, low-tech data, and plateaus with thick sediments complicate the estimation of depth from altimetry. Even so, the estimate was generally correct about the tectonic nature of the terrain and the extent of depth variations to be expected. If ships will fill gaps strategically, visiting areas where altimetry shows that interesting features will be found, and passing near the centroids of the larger gaps, the data will be exciting in their own right and will also improve future altimetry estimates.

GRACE Hydrological estimates for small basins: Evaluating processing approaches on the High Plains Aquifer, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longuevergne, Laurent; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Wilson, Clark R.

2010-11-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide observations of water storage variation at regional scales. However, when focusing on a region of interest, limited spatial resolution and noise contamination can cause estimation bias and spatial leakage, problems that are exacerbated as the region of interest approaches the GRACE resolution limit of a few hundred km. Reliable estimates of water storage variations in small basins require compromises between competing needs for noise suppression and spatial resolution. The objective of this study was to quantitatively investigate processing methods and their impacts on bias, leakage, GRACE noise reduction, and estimated total error, allowing solution of the trade-offs. Among the methods tested is a recently developed concentration algorithm called spatiospectral localization, which optimizes the basin shape description, taking into account limited spatial resolution. This method is particularly suited to retrieval of basin-scale water storage variations and is effective for small basins. To increase confidence in derived methods, water storage variations were calculated for both CSR (Center for Space Research) and GRGS (Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale) GRACE products, which employ different processing strategies. The processing techniques were tested on the intensively monitored High Plains Aquifer (450,000 km2 area), where application of the appropriate optimal processing method allowed retrieval of water storage variations over a portion of the aquifer as small as ˜200,000 km2.

Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

PubMed Central

Doi, Shunsuke; Ide, Hiroo; Takeuchi, Koichi; Fujita, Shinsuke; Takabayashi, Katsuhiko

2017-01-01

Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy. PMID:29125585

Estimation of body surface area in the musk shrew ( Suncus murinus): a small animal for testing chemotherapy-induced emesis.

PubMed

Eiseman, Julie L; Sciullo, Michael; Wang, Hong; Beumer, Jan H; Horn, Charles C

2017-10-01

Several cancer chemotherapies cause nausea and vomiting, which can be dose-limiting. Musk shrews are used as preclinical models for chemotherapy-induced emesis and for antiemetic effectiveness. Unlike rats and mice, shrews possess a vomiting reflex and demonstrate an emetic profile similar to humans, including acute and delayed phases. As with most animals, dosing of shrews is based on body weight, while translation of such doses to clinically equivalent exposure requires doses based on body surface area. In the current study body surface area in musk shrews was directly assessed to determine the Meeh constant (K m ) conversion factor (female = 9.97, male = 9.10), allowing estimation of body surface area based on body weight. These parameters can be used to determine dosing strategies for shrew studies that model human drug exposures, particularly for investigating the emetic liability of cancer chemotherapeutic agents.

Near field Rayleigh wave on soft porous layers.

PubMed

Geebelen, N; Boeckx, L; Vermeir, G; Lauriks, W; Allard, J F; Dazel, O

2008-03-01

Simulations performed for a typical semi-infinite reticulated plastic foam saturated by air show that, at distances less than three Rayleigh wavelengths from the area of mechanical excitation by a circular source, the normal frame velocity is close to the Rayleigh pole contribution. Simulated measurements show that a good order of magnitude estimate of the phase speed and damping can be obtained at small distances from the source. Simulations are also performed for layers of finite thickness, where the phase velocity and damping depend on frequency. They indicate that the normal frame velocity at small distances from the source is always close to the Rayleigh pole contribution and that a good order of magnitude estimate of the phase speed of the Rayleigh wave can be obtained at small distances from the source. Furthermore, simulations show that precise measurements of the damping of the Rayleigh wave need larger distances. Measurements performed on a layer of finite thickness confirm these trends.

Compatible above-ground biomass equations and carbon stock estimation for small diameter Turkish pine (Pinus brutia Ten.).

PubMed

Sakici, Oytun Emre; Kucuk, Omer; Ashraf, Muhammad Irfan

2018-04-15

Small trees and saplings are important for forest management, carbon stock estimation, ecological modeling, and fire management planning. Turkish pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) is a common coniferous species and comprises 25.1% of total forest area of Turkey. Turkish pine is also important due to its flammable fuel characteristics. In this study, compatible above-ground biomass equations were developed to predict needle, branch, stem wood, and above-ground total biomass, and carbon stock assessment was also described for Turkish pine which is smaller than 8 cm diameter at breast height or shorter than breast height. Compatible biomass equations are useful for biomass prediction of small diameter individuals of Turkish pine. These equations will also be helpful in determining fire behavior characteristics and calculating their carbon stock. Overall, present study will be useful for developing ecological models, forest management plans, silvicultural plans, and fire management plans.

CRC Test Ever - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

For the ever had colorectal cancer test, a person 50 years of age or older must have reported having at least one colorectal endoscopy (sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy) in his/her life or at least one home-based FOBT within the past two years by the time of interview.

Water erosion and climate change in a small alpine catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berteni, Francesca; Grossi, Giovanna

2017-04-01

WATER EROSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALL ALPINE CATCHMENT Francesca Berteni, Giovanna Grossi A change in the mean and variability of some variables of the climate system is expected to affect the sediment yield of mountainous areas in several ways: for example through soil temperature and precipitation peak intensity change, permafrost thawing, snow- and ice-melt time shifting. Water erosion, sediment transport and yield and the effects of climate change on these physical phenomena are the focus of this work. The study area is a small mountainous basin, the Guerna creek watershed, located in the Central Southern Alps. The sensitivity of sediment yield estimates to a change of condition of the climate system may be investigated through the application of different models, each characterized by its own features and limits. In this preliminary analysis two different empirical mathematical models are considered: RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1991) and EPM (Erosion Potential Method; Gavrilovic, 1988). These models are implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) supporting the management of the territorial database used to estimate relevant geomorphological parameters and to create different thematic maps. From one side the geographical and geomorphological information is required (land use, slope and hydrogeological instability, resistance to erosion, lithological characterization and granulometric composition). On the other side the knowledge of the weather-climate parameters (precipitation and temperature data) is fundamental as well to evaluate the intensity and variability of the erosive processes and estimate the sediment yield at the basin outlet. Therefore different climate change scenarios were considered in order to tentatively assess the impact on the water erosion and sediment yield at the small basin scale. Keywords: water erosion, sediment yield, climate change, empirical mathematical models, EPM, RUSLE, GIS, Guerna

Statistical parameters of random heterogeneity estimated by analysing coda waves based on finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emoto, K.; Saito, T.; Shiomi, K.

2017-12-01

Short-period (<1 s) seismograms are strongly affected by small-scale (<10 km) heterogeneities in the lithosphere. In general, short-period seismograms are analysed based on the statistical method by considering the interaction between seismic waves and randomly distributed small-scale heterogeneities. Statistical properties of the random heterogeneities have been estimated by analysing short-period seismograms. However, generally, the small-scale random heterogeneity is not taken into account for the modelling of long-period (>2 s) seismograms. We found that the energy of the coda of long-period seismograms shows a spatially flat distribution. This phenomenon is well known in short-period seismograms and results from the scattering by small-scale heterogeneities. We estimate the statistical parameters that characterize the small-scale random heterogeneity by modelling the spatiotemporal energy distribution of long-period seismograms. We analyse three moderate-size earthquakes that occurred in southwest Japan. We calculate the spatial distribution of the energy density recorded by a dense seismograph network in Japan at the period bands of 8-16 s, 4-8 s and 2-4 s and model them by using 3-D finite difference (FD) simulations. Compared to conventional methods based on statistical theories, we can calculate more realistic synthetics by using the FD simulation. It is not necessary to assume a uniform background velocity, body or surface waves and scattering properties considered in general scattering theories. By taking the ratio of the energy of the coda area to that of the entire area, we can separately estimate the scattering and the intrinsic absorption effects. Our result reveals the spectrum of the random inhomogeneity in a wide wavenumber range including the intensity around the corner wavenumber as P(m) = 8πε2a3/(1 + a2m2)2, where ε = 0.05 and a = 3.1 km, even though past studies analysing higher-frequency records could not detect the corner. Finally, we estimate the intrinsic attenuation by modelling the decay rate of the energy. The method proposed in this study is suitable for quantifying the statistical properties of long-wavelength subsurface random inhomogeneity, which leads the way to characterizing a wider wavenumber range of spectra, including the corner wavenumber.

Method for estimating low-flow characteristics of ungaged streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arihood, Leslie D.; Glatfelter, Dale R.

1991-01-01

Equations for estimating the 7-day, 2-year and 7oday, 10-year low flows at sites on ungaged streams are presented. Regression analysis was used to develop equations relating basin characteristics and low-flow characteristics at 82 gaging stations. Significant basin characteristics in the equations are contributing drainage area and flow-duration ratio, which is the 20-percent flow duration divided by the 90-percent flow duration. Flow-duration ratio has been regionalized for Indiana on a plate. Ratios for use in the equations are obtained from the plate. Drainage areas are determined from maps or are obtained from reports. The predictive capability of the method was determined by tests of the equations and of the flow-duration ratios on the plate. The accuracy of the equations alone was tested by estimating the low-flow characteristics at 82 gaging stations where flow-duration ratio is already known. In this case, the standard errors of estimate for 7-day, 2-year and 7-day, 10-year low flows are 19 and 28 percent. When flow-duration ratios for the 82 gaging stations are obtained from the map, the standard errors are 46 and 61 percent. However, when stations having drainage areas of less than 10 square miles are excluded from the test, the standard errors decrease to 38 and 49 percent. Standard errors increase when stations with small basins are included, probably because some of the flow-duration ratios obtained for these small basins are incorrect. Local geology and its effect on the ratio are not adequately reflected on the plate, which shows the regional variation in flow-duration ratio. In all the tests, no bias is apparent areally, with increasing drainage area or with increasing ratio. Guidelines and limitations should be considered when using the method. The method can be applied only at sites in the northern and central physiographic zones of the State. Low-flow characteristics cannot be estimated for regulated streams unless the amount of regulation is known so that the estimated low-flow characteristic can be adjusted. The method is most accurate for sites having drainage areas ranging from 10 to 1,000 square miles and for predictions of 7-day, 10-year low flows ranging from 0.5 to 340 cubic feet per second.

Method for estimating low-flow characteristics of ungaged streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arihood, L.D.; Glatfelter, D.R.

1986-01-01

Equations for estimating the 7-day, 2-yr and 7-day, 10-yr low flows at sites on ungaged streams are presented. Regression analysis was used to develop equations relating basin characteristics and low flow characteristics at 82 gaging stations. Significant basin characteristics in the equations are contributing drainage area and flow duration ratio, which is the 20% flow duration divided by the 90% flow duration. Flow duration ratio has been regionalized for Indiana on a plate. Ratios for use in the equations are obtained from this plate. Drainage areas are determined from maps or are obtained from reports. The predictive capability of the method was determined by tests of the equations and of the flow duration ratios on the plate. The accuracy of the equations alone was tested by estimating the low flow characteristics at 82 gaging stations where flow duration ratio is already known. In this case, the standard errors of estimate for 7-day, 2-yr and 7-day, 10-yr low flows are 19% and 28%. When flow duration ratios for the 82 gaging stations are obtained from the map, the standard errors are 46% and 61%. However, when stations with drainage areas < 10 sq mi are excluded from the test, the standard errors reduce to 38% and 49%. Standard errors increase when stations with small basins are included, probably because some of the flow duration ratios obtained for these small basins are incorrect. Local geology and its effect on the ratio are not adequately reflected on the plate, which shows the regional variation in flow duration ratio. In all the tests, no bias is apparent areally, with increasing drainage area or with increasing ratio. Guidelines and limitations should be considered when using the method. The method can be applied only at sites in the northern and the central physiographic zones of the state. Low flow characteristics cannot be estimated for regulated streams unless the amount of regulation is known so that the estimated low flow characteristic can be adjusted. The method is most accurate for sites with drainage areas ranging from 10 to 1,000 sq mi and for predictions of 7-day, 10-yr low flows ranging from 0.5 to 340 cu ft/sec. (Author 's abstract)

Use of Landsat imagery to estimate ground-water pumpage for irrigation on the Columbia Plateau in eastern Washington, 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, P.C.; Seevers, Paul

1991-01-01

A method for estimating ground-water pumpage for irrigation was developed for the Columbia Plateau in eastern Washington. The method combines water-application rates estimated from pumpage data with acreage of irrigated crops that was mapped by using Landsat imagery. The study area consisted of Grant, Lincoln, Adams, and Franklin Counties, an area of approximately 8,900 square miles, and accounts for approximately three-fourths of the ground-water pumpage in the Columbia Plateau in eastern Washington. Data from two passes of Landsat's multispectral scanner were analyzed by using a spectral band ratioing procedure to map irrigated crops for the study area. Data from one pass of Landsat's thematic mapper, covering approximately two-thirds of the study area, also were analyzed for determining irrigated crops in the area resulting in a 6-percent improvement in accuracy over the multispectral scanner analysis. A total of 576 annual water-application rates associated with particular crops, for the 1982 through 1985 seasons, were calculated. A regression equation was developed for estimating annual water-application rates as a function of crop type, annual precipitation, irrigation system type, and available water capacity of the soil. Crops were grouped into three water-use categories: (1) small grains, primarily wheat and barley; (2) high water-use crops consisting of corn, alfalfa, and potatoes; and (3) miscellaneous vegetable and row crops. Annual water-application rates, expressed as a depth of water, then were multiplied by irrigated area determined by Landsat to estimate a volume of water pumped for irrigation for 1985-620,000 acre-feet. An assessment of accuracy for estimating pumpage for 28 of the sites showed that total predicted pumpage was within 4 percent of the total observed pumpage.

Estimating Unbiased Land Cover Change Areas In The Colombian Amazon Using Landsat Time Series And Statistical Inference Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arevalo, P. A.; Olofsson, P.; Woodcock, C. E.

2017-12-01

Unbiased estimation of the areas of conversion between land categories ("activity data") and their uncertainty is crucial for providing more robust calculations of carbon emissions to the atmosphere, as well as their removals. This is particularly important for the REDD+ mechanism of UNFCCC where an economic compensation is tied to the magnitude and direction of such fluxes. Dense time series of Landsat data and statistical protocols are becoming an integral part of forest monitoring efforts, but there are relatively few studies in the tropics focused on using these methods to advance operational MRV systems (Monitoring, Reporting and Verification). We present the results of a prototype methodology for continuous monitoring and unbiased estimation of activity data that is compliant with the IPCC Approach 3 for representation of land. We used a break detection algorithm (Continuous Change Detection and Classification, CCDC) to fit pixel-level temporal segments to time series of Landsat data in the Colombian Amazon. The segments were classified using a Random Forest classifier to obtain annual maps of land categories between 2001 and 2016. Using these maps, a biannual stratified sampling approach was implemented and unbiased stratified estimators constructed to calculate area estimates with confidence intervals for each of the stable and change classes. Our results provide evidence of a decrease in primary forest as a result of conversion to pastures, as well as increase in secondary forest as pastures are abandoned and the forest allowed to regenerate. Estimating areas of other land transitions proved challenging because of their very small mapped areas compared to stable classes like forest, which corresponds to almost 90% of the study area. Implications on remote sensing data processing, sample allocation and uncertainty reduction are also discussed.

Recruiter Stress: An Experiment Using Text-messages as a Stress Intervention

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

messages covered a number of areas (e.g., physiological, cognitive , social) and were generally self-contained with 140 characters or less (to meet text...although most differences here are small and within margins of errors. The two most noticeable differences are for the impact of work stress on job...order to compute estimated hour and day losses. Using recruiter population estimates, over 4,500 man-hours were lost due to late arrivals and over 9,500

Evaluating call-count procedures for measuring local mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armbruster, M.J.; Baskett, T.S.; Goforth, W.R.; Sadler, K.C.

1978-01-01

Seventy-nine mourning dove call-count runs were made on a 32-km route in Osage County, Missouri, May 1-August 31, 1971 and 1972. Circular study areas, each 61 ha, surrounding stop numbers 4 and 5, were delineated for intensive nest searches and population estimates. Tallies of cooing male doves along the entire call-count route were quite variable in repeated runs, fluctuating as much as 50 percent on consecutive days. There were no consistent relationships between numbers of cooing males tallied at stops 4 and 5 and the numbers of current nests or doves estimated to be present in the surrounding study areas. We doubt the suitability of call-count procedures to estimate precisely the densities of breeding pairs, nests or production of doves on small areas. Our findings do not dispute the usefulness of the national call-count survey as an index to relative densities of mourning doves during the breeding season over large portions of the United States, or as an index to annual population trends.

Estimating peak discharges, flood volumes, and hydrograph shapes of small ungaged urban streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, J.M.

1986-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating peak discharges, flood volumes and hydrograph shapes of small (less than 5 sq mi) urban streams in Ohio. Examples of how to use the various regression equations and estimating techniques also are presented. Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The significant independent variables affecting peak discharge are drainage area, main-channel slope, average basin-elevation index, and basin-development factor. Standard errors of regression and prediction for the peak discharge equations range from +/-37% to +/-41%. An equation also was developed to estimate the flood volume of a given peak discharge. Peak discharge, drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin-development factor were found to be the significant independent variables affecting flood volumes for given peak discharges. The standard error of regression for the volume equation is +/-52%. A technique is described for estimating the shape of a runoff hydrograph by applying a specific peak discharge and the estimated lagtime to a dimensionless hydrograph. An equation for estimating the lagtime of a basin was developed. Two variables--main-channel length divided by the square root of the main-channel slope and basin-development factor--have a significant effect on basin lagtime. The standard error of regression for the lagtime equation is +/-48%. The data base for the study was established by collecting rainfall-runoff data at 30 basins distributed throughout several metropolitan areas of Ohio. Five to eight years of data were collected at a 5-min record interval. The USGS rainfall-runoff model A634 was calibrated for each site. The calibrated models were used in conjunction with long-term rainfall records to generate a long-term streamflow record for each site. Each annual peak-discharge record was fitted to a Log-Pearson Type III frequency curve. Multiple-regression techniques were then used to analyze the peak discharge data as a function of the basin characteristics of the 30 sites. (Author 's abstract)

Technical and cost advantages of silicon carbide telescopes for small-satellite imaging applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasunic, Keith J.; Aikens, Dave; Szwabowski, Dean; Ragan, Chip; Tinker, Flemming

2017-09-01

Small satellites ("SmallSats") are a growing segment of the Earth imaging and remote sensing market. Designed to be relatively low cost and with performance tailored to specific end-use applications, they are driving changes in optical telescope assembly (OTA) requirements. OTAs implemented in silicon carbide (SiC) provide performance advantages for space applications but have been predominately limited to large programs. A new generation of lightweight and thermally-stable designs is becoming commercially available, expanding the application of SiC to small satellites. This paper reviews the cost and technical advantages of an OTA designed using SiC for small satellite platforms. Taking into account faceplate fabrication quilting and surface distortion after gravity release, an optimized open-back SiC design with a lightweighting of 70% for a 125-mm SmallSat-class primary mirror has an estimated mass area density of 2.8 kg/m2 and an aspect ratio of 40:1. In addition, the thermally-induced surface error of such optimized designs is estimated at λ/150 RMS per watt of absorbed power. Cost advantages of SiC include reductions in launch mass, thermal-management infrastructure, and manufacturing time based on allowable assembly tolerances.

Digital Biomass Accumulation Using High-Throughput Plant Phenotype Data Analysis.

PubMed

Rahaman, Md Matiur; Ahsan, Md Asif; Gillani, Zeeshan; Chen, Ming

2017-09-01

Biomass is an important phenotypic trait in functional ecology and growth analysis. The typical methods for measuring biomass are destructive, and they require numerous individuals to be cultivated for repeated measurements. With the advent of image-based high-throughput plant phenotyping facilities, non-destructive biomass measuring methods have attempted to overcome this problem. Thus, the estimation of plant biomass of individual plants from their digital images is becoming more important. In this paper, we propose an approach to biomass estimation based on image derived phenotypic traits. Several image-based biomass studies state that the estimation of plant biomass is only a linear function of the projected plant area in images. However, we modeled the plant volume as a function of plant area, plant compactness, and plant age to generalize the linear biomass model. The obtained results confirm the proposed model and can explain most of the observed variance during image-derived biomass estimation. Moreover, a small difference was observed between actual and estimated digital biomass, which indicates that our proposed approach can be used to estimate digital biomass accurately.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest.

PubMed

Hearn, Andrew J; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches.

The First Estimates of Marbled Cat Pardofelis marmorata Population Density from Bornean Primary and Selectively Logged Forest

PubMed Central

Hearn, Andrew J.; Ross, Joanna; Bernard, Henry; Bakar, Soffian Abu; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Macdonald, David W.

2016-01-01

The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches. PMID:27007219

Use of the continuous slope-area method to estimate runoff in a network of ephemeral channels, southeast Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Anne M.; Callegary, James B.; Smith, Christopher F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Leenhouts, James M.; Fritzinger, Robert A.

2012-01-01

The continuous slope-area (CSA) method is an innovative gaging method for indirect computation of complete-event discharge hydrographs that can be applied when direct measurement methods are unsafe, impractical, or impossible to apply. This paper reports on use of the method to produce event-specific discharge hydrographs in a network of sand-bedded ephemeral stream channels in southeast Arizona, USA, for water year 2008. The method provided satisfactory discharge estimates for flows that span channel banks, and for moderate to large flows, with about 10–16% uncertainty, respectively for total flow volume and peak flow, as compared to results obtained with an alternate method. Our results also suggest that the CSA method may be useful for estimating runoff of small flows, and during recessions, but with increased uncertainty.

Evapotranspiration from areas of native vegetation in west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bidlake, W.R.; Woodham, W.M.; Lopez, M.A.

1993-01-01

A study was made to examine the suitability of three different micrometeorological methods for estimating evapotranspiration from selected areas of native vegetation in west-central Florida and to estimate annual evapotranspiration from those areas. Evapotranspiration was estimated using the energy- balance Bowen ratio and eddy correlation methods. Potential evapotranspiration was computed using the Penman equation. The energy-balance Bowen ratio method was used to estimate diurnal evapotrans- piration at unforested sites and yielded reasonable results; however, measurements indicated that the magnitudes of air temperature and vapor-pressure gradients above the forested sites were too small to obtain reliable evapotranspiration measurements with the energy balance Bowen ratio system. Analysis of the surface energy-balance indicated that sensible and latent heat fluxes computed using standard eddy correlation computation methods did not adequately account for available energy. Eddy correlation data were combined with the equation for the surface energy balance to yield two additional estimates of evapotranspiration. Daily potential evapotranspiration and evapotranspira- tion estimated using the energy-balance Bowen ratio method were not correlated at a unforested, dry prairie site, but they were correlated at a marsh site. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration for sites within the four vegetation types, which were based on energy-balance Bowen ratio and eddy correlation measurements, were 1,010 millimeters for dry prairie sites, 990 millimeters for marsh sites, 1,060 millimeters for pine flatwood sites, and 970 millimeters for a cypress swamp site.

Time to refine key climate policy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, Alexander R.

2018-05-01

Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders

2007-01-01

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models,…

Object strength--an accurate measure for small objects that is insensitive to partial volume effects.

PubMed

Tofts, P S; Silver, N C; Barker, G J; Gass, A

2005-07-01

There are currently four problems in characterising small nonuniform lesions or other objects in Magnetic Resonance images where partial volume effects are significant. Object size is over- or under-estimated; boundaries are often not reproducible; mean object value cannot be measured; and fuzzy borders cannot be accommodated. A new measure, Object Strength, is proposed. This is the sum of all abnormal intensities, above a uniform background value. For a uniform object, this is simply the product of the increase in intensity and the size of the object. Biologically, this could be at least as relevant as existing measures of size or mean intensity. We hypothesise that Object Strength will perform better than traditional area measurements in characterising small objects. In a pilot study, the reproducibility of object strength measurements was investigated using MR images of small multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions. In addition, accuracy was investigated using artificial lesions of known volume (0.3-6.2 ml) and realistic appearance. Reproducibility approached that of area measurements (in 33/90 lesion reports the difference between repeats was less than for area measurements). Total lesion volume was accurate to 0.2%. In conclusion, Object Strength has potential for improved characterisation of small lesions and objects in imaging and possibly spectroscopy.

A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A common disclosure control practice for health datasets is to identify small geographic areas and either suppress records from these small areas or aggregate them into larger ones. A recent study provided a method for deciding when an area is too small based on the uniqueness criterion. The uniqueness criterion stipulates that an the area is no longer too small when the proportion of unique individuals on the relevant variables (the quasi-identifiers) approaches zero. However, using a uniqueness value of zero is quite a stringent threshold, and is only suitable when the risks from data disclosure are quite high. Other uniqueness thresholds that have been proposed for health data are 5% and 20%. Methods We estimated uniqueness for urban Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs) by using the 2001 long form Canadian census data representing 20% of the population. We then constructed two logistic regression models to predict when the uniqueness is greater than the 5% and 20% thresholds, and validated their predictive accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. Predictor variables included the population size of the FSA and the maximum number of possible values on the quasi-identifiers (the number of equivalence classes). Results All model parameters were significant and the models had very high prediction accuracy, with specificity above 0.9, and sensitivity at 0.87 and 0.74 for the 5% and 20% threshold models respectively. The application of the models was illustrated with an analysis of the Ontario newborn registry and an emergency department dataset. At the higher thresholds considerably fewer records compared to the 0% threshold would be considered to be in small areas and therefore undergo disclosure control actions. We have also included concrete guidance for data custodians in deciding which one of the three uniqueness thresholds to use (0%, 5%, 20%), depending on the mitigating controls that the data recipients have in place, the potential invasion of privacy if the data is disclosed, and the motives and capacity of the data recipient to re-identify the data. Conclusion The models we developed can be used to manage the re-identification risk from small geographic areas. Being able to choose among three possible thresholds, a data custodian can adjust the definition of "small geographic area" to the nature of the data and recipient. PMID:20361870

Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

We inverted 13 tsunami waveforms recorded in Japan to estimate the slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1), which occurred southeast off Hokkaido along the southern Kuril subduction zone. The previously estimated source area determined from tsunami travel times [Hatori, 1973] did not coincide with the observed aftershock distribution. Our results show that a large amount of slip occurred in the aftershock area east of Hatori's tsunami source area, suggesting that a portion of the interplate thrust near the trench was ruptured by the main shock. We also found more than 5 m of slip along the deeper part of the seismogenic interface, just below the central part of Hatori's tsunami source area. This region, which also has the largest stress drop during the main shock, had few aftershocks. Large tsunami heights on the eastern Hokkaido coast are better explained by the heterogeneous slip model than previous uniform-slip fault models. The total seismic moment is estimated to be 1.87 ?? 1021 N m, giving a moment magnitude of Mw = 8.1. The revised tsunami source area is estimated to be 25.2 ?? 103 km2, ???3 times larger than the previous tsunami source area. Out of four large earthquakes with M ??? 7 that subsequently occurred in and around the rupture area of the 1952 event, three were at the edges of regions with relatively small amount of slip. We also found that a subducted seamount near the edge of the rupture area possibly impeded slip along the plate interface.

Mineral resource potential map of the Raywood Flat Roadless Areas, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Iverson, Stephen R.

1983-01-01

The area having moderate potential for base-metal resources forms a small zone in the eastern part of the recommended wilderness (A5-187). Within this zone, evidence provided by stream-sediment geochemistry suggests that crystalline bedrocks in several drainages contain concentrations of metallic elements. Because the terrain is inaccessible and covered with dense brush, most of the bedrock in the specific drainages containing the geochemical anomalies could not be examined. Thus, although we infer that mineral occurrences exist in the drainage basins, we have little data on which to base an estimate of their extent and quality. Locally, the crystalline rocks probably contain hydrothermal veins or disseminated occurrences where lead, copper, molybdenum, tin, cobalt, bismuth, and arsenic have been concentrated. However, the geochemical anomalies for these metals are small, and the stream drainages also are relatively small. Therefore, the inferred occurrences of metallic minerals probably are small scale, scattered, and low grade. There is only low probability that the inferred mineral occurrences are large scale.

Estimates of fetch-induced errors in Bowen-ratio energy-budget measurements of evapotranspiration from a prairie wetland, Cottonwood Lake Area, North Dakota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stannard, David L.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Winter, Thomas C.; Parkhurst, Renee S.

2004-01-01

Micrometeorological measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) often are affected to some degree by errors arising from limited fetch. A recently developed model was used to estimate fetch-induced errors in Bowen-ratio energy-budget measurements of ET made at a small wetland with fetch-to-height ratios ranging from 34 to 49. Estimated errors were small, averaging −1.90%±0.59%. The small errors are attributed primarily to the near-zero lower sensor height, and the negative bias reflects the greater Bowen ratios of the drier surrounding upland. Some of the variables and parameters affecting the error were not measured, but instead are estimated. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the uncertainty arising from these estimates is small. In general, fetch-induced error in measured wetland ET increases with decreasing fetch-to-height ratio, with increasing aridity and with increasing atmospheric stability over the wetland. Occurrence of standing water at a site is likely to increase the appropriate time step of data integration, for a given level of accuracy. Occurrence of extensive open water can increase accuracy or decrease the required fetch by allowing the lower sensor to be placed at the water surface. If fetch is highly variable and fetch-induced errors are significant, the variables affecting fetch (e.g., wind direction, water level) need to be measured. Fetch-induced error during the non-growing season may be greater or smaller than during the growing season, depending on how seasonal changes affect both the wetland and upland at a site.

Developing index maps of water-harvest potential in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.

2004-01-01

The food security problem in Africa is tied to the small farmer, whose subsistence farming relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture. A dry spell lasting two to three weeks can cause a significant yield reduction. A small-scale irrigation scheme from small-capacity ponds can alleviate this problem. This solution would require a water harvest mechanism at a farm level. In this study, we looked at the feasibility of implementing such a water harvest mechanism in drought prone parts of Africa. A water balance study was conducted at different watershed levels. Runoff (watershed yield) was estimated using the SCS curve number technique and satellite derived rainfall estimates (RFE). Watersheds were delineated from the Africa-wide HYDRO-1K digital elevation model (DEM) data set in a GIS environment. Annual runoff volumes that can potentially be stored in a pond during storm events were estimated as the product of the watershed area and runoff excess estimated from the SCS Curve Number method. Estimates were made for seepage and net evaporation losses. A series of water harvest index maps were developed based on a combination of factors that took into account the availability of runoff, evaporation losses, population density, and the required watershed size needed to fill a small storage reservoir that can be used to alleviate water stress during a crop growing season. This study presents Africa-wide water-harvest index maps that could be used for conducting feasibility studies at a regional scale in assessing the relative differences in runoff potential between regions for the possibility of using ponds as a water management tool. ?? 2004 American Society of Agricultural Engineers.

Delineation and Analysis of Uncertainty of Contributing Areas to Wells at the Southbury Training School, Southbury, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Stone, Janet Radway; Mullaney, John R.

2000-01-01

Contributing areas to public-supply wells at the Southbury Training School in Southbury, Connecticut, were mapped by simulating ground-water flow in stratified glacial deposits in the lower Transylvania Brook watershed. The simulation used nonlinear regression methods and informational statistics to estimate parameters of a ground-water flow model using drawdown data from an aquifer test. The goodness of fit of the model and the uncertainty associated with model predictions were statistically measured. A watershed-scale model, depicting large-scale ground-water flow in the Transylvania Brook watershed, was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge. Estimates of recharge from 10 small basins in the watershed differed on the basis of the drainage characteristics of each basin. Small basins having well-defined stream channels contributed less ground-water recharge than basins having no defined channels because potential ground-water recharge was carried away in the stream channel. Estimates of ground-water recharge were used in an aquifer-scale parameter-estimation model. Seven variations of the ground-water-flow system were posed, each representing the ground-water-flow system in slightly different but realistic ways. The model that most closely reproduced measured hydraulic heads and flows with realistic parameter values was selected as the most representative of the ground-water-flow system and was used to delineate boundaries of the contributing areas. The model fit revealed no systematic model error, which indicates that the model is likely to represent the major characteristics of the actual system. Parameter values estimated during the simulation are as follows: horizontal hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 154 feet per day; vertical hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 0.83 feet per day; horizontal hydraulic conductivity of fine-grained deposits, 29 feet per day; specific yield, 0.007; specific storage, 1.6E-05. Average annual recharge was estimated using the watershed-scale model with no parameter estimation and was determined to be 24 inches per year in the valley areas and 9 inches per year in the upland areas. The parameter estimates produced in the model are similar to expected values, with two exceptions. The estimated specific yield of the stratified glacial deposits is lower than expected, which could be caused by the layered nature of the deposits. The recharge estimate produced by the model was also lower?about 32 percent of the average annual rate. This could be caused by the timing of the aquifer test with respect to the annual cycle of ground-water recharge, and by some of the expected recharge going to parts of the flow system that were not simulated. The data used in the calibration were collected during an aquifer test from October 30 to November 4, 1996. The model fit was very good, as indicated by the correlation coefficient (0.999) between the weighted simulated values and weighted observed values. The model also reproduced the general rise in ground-water levels caused by ground-water recharge and the cyclic fluctuations caused by pumping prior to the aquifer test. Contributing areas were delineated using a particle-tracking procedure. Hypothetical particles of water were introduced at each model cell in the top layer and were tracked to determine whether or not they reached the pumped well. A deterministic contributing area was calculated using the calibrated model, and a probabilistic contributing area was calculated using a Monte Carlo approach along with the calibrated model. The Monte Carlo simulation was done, using the parameter variance/covariance matrix generated by the regression model, to estimate probabilities associated with the contributing area to the wells. The probabilities arise from uncertainty in the estimated parameter values, which in turn arise from the adequacy of the data available to comprehensively describe the groundwater-flow sy

Archaeological Investigations at Pueblo Sin Casas (FB6273), a Multicomponent Site in the Hueco Bolson, Fort Bliss, Texas

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

Slope NW Gradient 1-5 degrees. Site type: small village. Occupation area 2.16 hectares. Depth of deposit: >10 cm. Estimated number of hearths: 6-10...Data from the adjacent Plains and Southwest suggest they were hunters of Pleistocene megafauna (mammoth) and lived in small, mobile bands. The Tularosa...extinction of Pleistocene megafauna led to the hunting of smaller game. Animals such as bison, deer, mountain sheep, and rabbit became primary sources of

Combined effects of climate change and bank stabilization on shallow water habitats of chinook salmon.

PubMed

Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; McClure, Michelle M; Sheer, Mindi B; Munn, Nancy L

2013-12-01

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low-sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act-mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999-2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April-June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April-June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17-32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life-history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions' long-term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Ancient Nursery Area for the Extinct Giant Shark Megalodon from the Miocene of Panama

PubMed Central

Pimiento, Catalina; Ehret, Dana J.; MacFadden, Bruce J.; Hubbell, Gordon

2010-01-01

Background As we know from modern species, nursery areas are essential shark habitats for vulnerable young. Nurseries are typically highly productive, shallow-water habitats that are characterized by the presence of juveniles and neonates. It has been suggested that in these areas, sharks can find ample food resources and protection from predators. Based on the fossil record, we know that the extinct Carcharocles megalodon was the biggest shark that ever lived. Previous proposed paleo-nursery areas for this species were based on the anecdotal presence of juvenile fossil teeth accompanied by fossil marine mammals. We now present the first definitive evidence of ancient nurseries for C. megalodon from the late Miocene of Panama, about 10 million years ago. Methodology/Principal Findings We collected and measured fossil shark teeth of C. megalodon, within the highly productive, shallow marine Gatun Formation from the Miocene of Panama. Surprisingly, and in contrast to other fossil accumulations, the majority of the teeth from Gatun are very small. Here we compare the tooth sizes from the Gatun with specimens from different, but analogous localities. In addition we calculate the total length of the individuals found in Gatun. These comparisons and estimates suggest that the small size of Gatun's C. megalodon is neither related to a small population of this species nor the tooth position within the jaw. Thus, the individuals from Gatun were mostly juveniles and neonates, with estimated body lengths between 2 and 10.5 meters. Conclusions/Significance We propose that the Miocene Gatun Formation represents the first documented paleo-nursery area for C. megalodon from the Neotropics, and one of the few recorded in the fossil record for an extinct selachian. We therefore show that sharks have used nursery areas at least for 10 millions of years as an adaptive strategy during their life histories. PMID:20479893

Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

1998-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

Spatial variation in attributable risks.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2015-01-01

The attributable risk (AR) measures the contribution of a particular risk factor to a disease, and allows estimation of disease rates specific to that risk. While previous studies consider variability in ARs over demographic categories, this paper considers the extent of spatial variability in ARs estimated from multilevel data with confounders both at individual and geographic levels. A case study considers the AR for diabetes in relation to elevated BMI, and area rates for diabetes attributable to excess weight. Contextual adjustment includes known area variables, and unobserved spatially clustered influences, while spatial heterogeneity (effect modification) is considered in terms of varying effects of elevated BMI by neighbourhood deprivation category. The application is to patient register data in London, with clear evidence of spatial variation in ARs, and in small area diabetes rates attributable to excess weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaporation from cultivated and semi-wild Sudanian Savanna in west Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceperley, Natalie C.; Mande, Theophile; van de Giesen, Nick; Tyler, Scott; Yacouba, Hamma; Parlange, Marc B.

2017-08-01

Rain-fed farming is the primary livelihood of semi-arid west Africa. Changes in land cover have the potential to affect precipitation, the critical resource for production. Turbulent flux measurements from two eddy-covariance towers and additional observations from a dense network of small, wireless meteorological stations combine to relate land cover (savanna forest and agriculture) to evaporation in a small (3.5 km2) catchment in Burkina Faso, west Africa. We observe larger sensible and latent heat fluxes over the savanna forest in the headwater area relative to the agricultural section of the watershed all year. Higher fluxes above the savanna forest are attributed to the greater number of exposed rocks and trees and the higher productivity of the forest compared to rain-fed, hand-farmed agricultural fields. Vegetation cover and soil moisture are found to be primary controls of the evaporative fraction. Satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture are determined to be good predictors of evaporative fraction, as indicators of the physical basis of evaporation. Our measurements provide an estimator that can be used to derive evaporative fraction when only NDVI is available. Such large-scale estimates of evaporative fraction from remotely sensed data are valuable where ground-based measurements are lacking, which is the case across the African continent and many other semi-arid areas. Evaporative fraction estimates can be combined, for example, with sensible heat from measurements of temperature variance, to provide an estimate of evaporation when only minimal meteorological measurements are available in remote regions of the world. These findings reinforce local cultural beliefs of the importance of forest fragments for climate regulation and may provide support to local decision makers and rural farmers in the maintenance of the forest areas.

Detailed Project Report. Small Beach Erosion Control Project. Broadkill Beach, Delaware.

DTIC Science & Technology

1972-02-01

this study. TABLE 3 ESTIMATED PROPERTY VALUES IN BROADKILL BEACH (July 1971) Beach Front Property* Entire Community Present Present Fair Value Fair ...between the 14th and 50th year reflect only the land, houses and utilities (minus salvage value estimated at 25% of the fair value ) that are located... Value $ $ 1,221,000 2,866,000 ftExcluding beach area. >4’ 5 11. The water entering Delaware Bay from Delaware River is polluted, but the degree of

Market opportunities in Canada for multimedia residential services in rural and small urban areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shariatmadar, Mehran; Narasimhan, Vasantha

1995-01-01

This paper reviews the studies which were undertaken jointly by Telesat and Industry Canada to provide an estimate of the market opportunities for residential multi-media services in the rural and small urban areas of Canada. This study is part of the Advanced Satcom program, a Ka-band satellite system proposal which is currently in the implementation proposal phase by the government and the Canadian space industry of which Telesat is an active member. Advanced Satcom extends the reach of terrestrial information highways to the remote and sparsely populated parts of the country in a cost-effective manner and thus provides a ubiquitous coverage of the information highways to all Canadians. Therefore, the rural and small urban markets are believed to be good opportunities for the Advanced Satcom. Although the results are primarily intended for fixed residential applications, they can also be used as input to market opportunity studies for wideband mobile applications.

Inadequacy of internal covariance estimation for super-sample covariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasa, Fabien; Kunz, Martin

2017-08-01

We give an analytical interpretation of how subsample-based internal covariance estimators lead to biased estimates of the covariance, due to underestimating the super-sample covariance (SSC). This includes the jackknife and bootstrap methods as estimators for the full survey area, and subsampling as an estimator of the covariance of subsamples. The limitations of the jackknife covariance have been previously presented in the literature because it is effectively a rescaling of the covariance of the subsample area. However we point out that subsampling is also biased, but for a different reason: the subsamples are not independent, and the corresponding lack of power results in SSC underprediction. We develop the formalism in the case of cluster counts that allows the bias of each covariance estimator to be exactly predicted. We find significant effects for a small-scale area or when a low number of subsamples is used, with auto-redshift biases ranging from 0.4% to 15% for subsampling and from 5% to 75% for jackknife covariance estimates. The cross-redshift covariance is even more affected; biases range from 8% to 25% for subsampling and from 50% to 90% for jackknife. Owing to the redshift evolution of the probe, the covariances cannot be debiased by a simple rescaling factor, and an exact debiasing has the same requirements as the full SSC prediction. These results thus disfavour the use of internal covariance estimators on data itself or a single simulation, leaving analytical prediction and simulations suites as possible SSC predictors.

Reducing the number of reconstructions needed for estimating channelized observer performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Angel R.; Miedema, Hope; Brenner, Melissa; Altaf, Sana

2018-03-01

A challenge for task-based optimization is the time required for each reconstructed image in applications where reconstructions are time consuming. Our goal is to reduce the number of reconstructions needed to estimate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the infinitely-trained optimal channelized linear observer. We explore the use of classifiers which either do not invert the channel covariance matrix or do feature selection. We also study the assumption that multiple low contrast signals in the same image of a non-linear reconstruction do not significantly change the estimate of the AUC. We compared the AUC of several classifiers (Hotelling, logistic regression, logistic regression using Firth bias reduction and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) with a small number of observations both for normal simulated data and images from a total variation reconstruction in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We used 10 Laguerre-Gauss channels and the Mann-Whitney estimator for AUC. For this data, our results show that at small sample sizes feature selection using the LASSO technique can decrease bias of the AUC estimation with increased variance and that for large sample sizes the difference between these classifiers is small. We also compared the use of multiple signals in a single reconstructed image to reduce the number of reconstructions in a total variation reconstruction for accelerated imaging in MRI. We found that AUC estimation using multiple low contrast signals in the same image resulted in similar AUC estimates as doing a single reconstruction per signal leading to a 13x reduction in the number of reconstructions needed.

Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species.

PubMed

Claisse, Jeremy T; Pondella, Daniel J; Williams, Jonathan P; Sadd, James

2012-01-01

Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941 thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

Using GIS Mapping of the Extent of Nearshore Rocky Reefs to Estimate the Abundance and Reproductive Output of Important Fishery Species

PubMed Central

Claisse, Jeremy T.; Pondella, Daniel J.; Williams, Jonathan P.; Sadd, James

2012-01-01

Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized. PMID:22272326

Estimation of small-scale soil erosion in laboratory experiments with Structure from Motion photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaguer-Puig, Matilde; Marqués-Mateu, Ángel; Lerma, José Luis; Ibáñez-Asensio, Sara

2017-10-01

The quantitative estimation of changes in terrain surfaces caused by water erosion can be carried out from precise descriptions of surfaces given by means of digital elevation models (DEMs). Some stages of water erosion research efforts are conducted in the laboratory using rainfall simulators and soil boxes with areas less than 1 m2. Under these conditions, erosive processes can lead to very small surface variations and high precision DEMs are needed to account for differences measured in millimetres. In this paper, we used a photogrammetric Structure from Motion (SfM) technique to build DEMs of a 0.5 m2 soil box to monitor several simulated rainfall episodes in the laboratory. The technique of DEM of difference (DoD) was then applied using GIS tools to compute estimates of volumetric changes between each pair of rainfall episodes. The aim was to classify the soil surface into three classes: erosion areas, deposition areas, and unchanged or neutral areas, and quantify the volume of soil that was eroded and deposited. We used a thresholding criterion of changes based on the estimated error of the difference of DEMs, which in turn was obtained from the root mean square error of the individual DEMs. Experimental tests showed that the choice of different threshold values in the DoD can lead to volume differences as large as 60% when compared to the direct volumetric difference. It turns out that the choice of that threshold was a key point in this method. In parallel to photogrammetric work, we collected sediments from each rain episode and obtained a series of corresponding measured sediment yields. The comparison between computed and measured sediment yields was significantly correlated, especially when considering the accumulated value of the five simulations. The computed sediment yield was 13% greater than the measured sediment yield. The procedure presented in this paper proved to be suitable for the determination of sediment yields in rainfall-driven soil erosion experiments conducted in the laboratory.

An analysis of mortality inventory tally using large plots compared to tally using small plot clusters

Treesearch

Vernon J. LaBau; John W. Hazard

2000-01-01

During an inventory to assess spruce bark beetle impact on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska, 5-year mortality estimates were made for all growing-stock trees on 0.6 ha areas, on 0.4 ha areas, and on a cluster of four 1/60-ha subplots. The analysis of the results of the comparison between cluster data and the larger plot data highlighted some of the problems...

Microhabitat Conditions in Wyoming's Sage-Grouse Core Areas: Effects on Nest Site Selection and Success.

PubMed

Dinkins, Jonathan B; Smith, Kurt T; Beck, Jeffrey L; Kirol, Christopher P; Pratt, Aaron C; Conover, Michael R

2016-01-01

The purpose of our study was to identify microhabitat characteristics of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest site selection and survival to determine the quality of sage-grouse habitat in 5 regions of central and southwest Wyoming associated with Wyoming's Core Area Policy. Wyoming's Core Area Policy was enacted in 2008 to reduce human disturbance near the greatest densities of sage-grouse. Our analyses aimed to assess sage-grouse nest selection and success at multiple micro-spatial scales. We obtained microhabitat data from 928 sage-grouse nest locations and 819 random microhabitat locations from 2008-2014. Nest success was estimated from 924 nests with survival data. Sage-grouse selected nests with greater sagebrush cover and height, visual obstruction, and number of small gaps between shrubs (gap size ≥0.5 m and <1.0 m), while selecting for less bare ground and rock. With the exception of more small gaps between shrubs, we did not find any differences in availability of these microhabitat characteristics between locations within and outside of Core Areas. In addition, we found little supporting evidence that sage-grouse were selecting different nest sites in Core Areas relative to areas outside of Core. The Kaplan-Meier nest success estimate for a 27-day incubation period was 42.0% (95% CI: 38.4-45.9%). Risk of nest failure was negatively associated with greater rock and more medium-sized gaps between shrubs (gap size ≥2.0 m and <3.0 m). Within our study areas, Wyoming's Core Areas did not have differing microhabitat quality compared to outside of Core Areas. The close proximity of our locations within and outside of Core Areas likely explained our lack of finding differences in microhabitat quality among locations within these landscapes. However, the Core Area Policy is most likely to conserve high quality habitat at larger spatial scales, which over decades may have cascading effects on microhabitat quality available between areas within and outside of Core Areas.

European perspectives on regional estimates of standing water bodies and the relevance of man-made ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terasmaa, Jaanus; Bartout, Pascal; Marzecova, Agata; Touchart, Laurent; Koff, Tiiu; Choffel, Quentin; Kapanen, Galina; Maleval, Véronique; Millot, Camille; Qsair, Zoubida; Vandel, Egert

2015-04-01

Until recently, the small water bodies have been disregarded in the environmental management and protection policies. For example, the European Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC proposes the threshold surface area of water bodies for typology and reporting as 50 ha. The inventories on state level or scientific studies took into account smaller water bodies (e.g. <10 ha for Meybeck, 1995, <1 ha for Rjanžin, 2005, or <0.05 ha for Kuusisto and Raatikainen, 1988) but these methods of estimations has been region-specific and not suitable for global estimates. The increasing awareness about the important roles that terrestrial standing water bodies play in the biodiversity or hydrological and biogeochemical cycles has facilitated new global and regional inventories of lakes and water bodies. Although with differences in the total counts and in the statistical estimates of abundance-size relationship, these recent global estimates reveal the quantitative importance of the terrestrial standing water bodies in the global hydrology (Downing et al., 2006; Verpoorter et al., 2014). Yet, our analysis of the abundance and distribution EU water bodies suggest that these global counts underrepresents the hydrologically complex terrain of the European territory. One of the main limits is the high cutoff limit that excludes small water bodies below ~0.2 ha. For example, in France, Bartout and Touchart (2013) report that including water bodies below 0.01 ha in the estimates resulted in 16 times higher number of water bodies with the surface area one-third higher than officially registered inventories. Also, in Estonia, the water bodies with a surface area below 1 ha are almost 50 times more abundant than those above 1 ha and 92% of all standing water bodies are smaller than 0.2 ha. Using the OpenStreetMap database we will discuss the differences between global inventories and EU-level analysis. We will show the alternative regional estimates of water bodies with the surface size threshold limit 0.01 ha which will illustrate the quantitative importance of very small often man-made ponds, which are however, abundant cultural heritage in many parts of Europe. Secondly, by comparing detailed national inventories compiled for France and Estonia, we will introduce usefulness of the the 'local to global' approach in which the local databases may significantly strengthen the precision of the regional (EU) level analysis. Overall, we will disss that all standing water bodies - including small and man-made ponds - play an important role in ecosystem services and require careful management to avoid hydrological and environmental deterioration. References: Verpoorter et al. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41. Bartout & Touchart,(2013) Annales de Géographie, 691. Downing et al., (2006) Limnology and Oceanography, 51(5). Kuusisto & Raatikainen, (1988) Terra, 102. Meybeck, (1995) in Lerman et al., Physics and chemistry of lakes. Rjanžin, (2005) Priroda, 4.

A relation between landsat digital numbers, surface reflectance, and the cosine of the solar zenith angle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kowalik, William S.; Marsh, Stuart E.; Lyon, Ronald J. P.

1982-01-01

A method for estimating the reflectance of ground sites from satellite radiance data is proposed and tested. The method uses the known ground reflectance from several sites and satellite data gathered over a wide range of solar zenith angles. The method was tested on each of 10 different Landsat images using 10 small sites in the Walker Lake, Nevada area. Plots of raw Landsat digital numbers (DNs) versus the cosine of the solar zenith angle (cos Z) for the the test areas are linear, and the average correlation coefficients of the data for Landsat bands 4, 5, 6, and 7 are 0.94, 0.93, 0.94, and 0.94, respectively. Ground reflectance values for the 10 sites are proportional to the slope of the DN versus cos Z relation at each site. The slope of the DN versus cos Z relation for seven additional sites in Nevada and California were used to estimate the ground reflectances of those sites. The estimates for nearby sites are in error by an average of 1.2% and more distant sites are in error by 5.1%. The method can successfully estimate the reflectance of sites outside the original scene, but extrapolation of the reflectance estimation equations to other areas may violate assumptions of atmospheric homogeneity.

Organic Carbon Storage in China's Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shuqing; Zhu, Chao; Zhou, Decheng; Huang, Dian; Werner, Jeremy

2013-01-01

China has been experiencing rapid urbanization in parallel with its economic boom over the past three decades. To date, the organic carbon storage in China's urban areas has not been quantified. Here, using data compiled from literature review and statistical yearbooks, we estimated that total carbon storage in China's urban areas was 577±60 Tg C (1 Tg  = 1012 g) in 2006. Soil was the largest contributor to total carbon storage (56%), followed by buildings (36%), and vegetation (7%), while carbon storage in humans was relatively small (1%). The carbon density in China's urban areas was 17.1±1.8 kg C m−2, about two times the national average of all lands. The most sensitive variable in estimating urban carbon storage was urban area. Examining urban carbon storages over a wide range of spatial extents in China and in the United States, we found a strong linear relationship between total urban carbon storage and total urban area, with a specific urban carbon storage of 16 Tg C for every 1,000 km2 urban area. This value might be useful for estimating urban carbon storage at regional to global scales. Our results also showed that the fraction of carbon storage in urban green spaces was still much lower in China relative to western countries, suggesting a great potential to mitigate climate change through urban greening and green spaces management in China. PMID:23991014

Directly Estimating Earthquake Rupture Area using Second Moments to Reduce the Uncertainty in Stress Drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Kaneko, Yoshihiro

2018-06-01

The key kinematic earthquake source parameters: rupture velocity, duration and area, shed light on earthquake dynamics, provide direct constraints on stress-drop, and have implications for seismic hazard. However, for moderate and small earthquakes, these parameters are usually poorly constrained due to limitations of the standard analysis methods. Numerical experiments by Kaneko and Shearer [2014,2015] demonstrated that standard spectral fitting techniques can lead to roughly 1 order of magnitude variation in stress-drop estimates that do not reflect the actual rupture properties even for simple crack models. We utilize these models to explore an alternative approach where we estimate the rupture area directly. For the suite of models, the area averaged static stress drop is nearly constant for models with the same underlying friction law, yet corner frequency based stress-drop estimates vary by a factor of 5-10 even for noise free data. Alternatively, we simulated inversions for the rupture area as parameterized by the second moments of the slip distribution. A natural estimate for the rupture area derived from the second moments is A=πLcWc, where Lc and Wc are the characteristic rupture length and width. This definition yields estimates of stress drop that vary by only 10% between the models but are slightly larger than the true area-averaged values. We simulate inversions for the second moments for the various models and find that the area can be estimated well when there are at least 15 available measurements of apparent duration at a variety of take-off angles. The improvement compared to azimuthally-averaged corner-frequency based approaches results from the second moments accounting for directivity and removing the assumption of a circular rupture area, both of which bias the standard approach. We also develop a new method that determines the minimum and maximum values of rupture area that are consistent with a particular dataset at the 95% confidence level. For the Kaneko and Shearer models with 20+ randomly distributed observations and ˜10% noise levels, we find that the maximum and minimum bounds on rupture area typically vary by a factor of two and that the minimum stress drop is often more tightly constrained than the maximum.

Natural re-establishment of a population of a critically endangered primate in a secondary forest: the San Martin titi monkey (Plecturocebus oenanthe) at the Pucunucho Private Conservation Area, Peru.

PubMed

Allgas, Néstor; Shanee, Sam; Shanee, Noga; Chambers, Josie; Tello-Alvarado, Julio C; Keeley, Keefe; Pinasco, Karina

2017-04-01

The San Martin titi monkey (Plecturocebus oenanthe) is endemic to a small area of northern Peru and is considered Critically Endangered on the IUCN due to massive habitat loss. Between 1994 and 2005 small scale reforestation efforts in the 23.5 ha area of Pucunucho have led to the recuperation of habitat from an area of pasture and crop lands. The first record of P. oenanthe re-establishment in the area is from 2010, although re-establishment probably began earlier. We carried out short population surveys using triangulation to monitor densities of P. oenanthe in Pucunucho in 2011, 2012 and 2016. We estimate the current population of P. oenanthe in this area at 27 individuals, giving population densities of 35 groups/km 2 and 124 individuals/km 2 . The successful regeneration of habitat and natural re-population of the area by this Critically Endangered species provides evidence of successful reforestation based conservation activities for this and potentially other primate species. Although now protected as a Private Conservation Area, Pucunucho remains threatened.

Rare event simulation in radiation transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollman, Craig

1993-10-01

This dissertation studies methods for estimating extremely small probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. Problems in radiation transport typically involve estimating very rare events or the expected value of a random variable which is with overwhelming probability equal to zero. These problems often have high dimensional state spaces and irregular geometries so that analytic solutions are not possible. Monte Carlo simulation must be used to estimate the radiation dosage being transported to a particular location. If the area is well shielded the probability of any one particular particle getting through is very small. Because of the large number of particles involved,more » even a tiny fraction penetrating the shield may represent an unacceptable level of radiation. It therefore becomes critical to be able to accurately estimate this extremely small probability. Importance sampling is a well known technique for improving the efficiency of rare event calculations. Here, a new set of probabilities is used in the simulation runs. The results are multiple by the likelihood ratio between the true and simulated probabilities so as to keep the estimator unbiased. The variance of the resulting estimator is very sensitive to which new set of transition probabilities are chosen. It is shown that a zero variance estimator does exist, but that its computation requires exact knowledge of the solution. A simple random walk with an associated killing model for the scatter of neutrons is introduced. Large deviation results for optimal importance sampling in random walks are extended to the case where killing is present. An adaptive ``learning`` algorithm for implementing importance sampling is given for more general Markov chain models of neutron scatter. For finite state spaces this algorithm is shown to give with probability one, a sequence of estimates converging exponentially fast to the true solution.« less

Social and natural sciences differ in their research strategies, adapted to work for different knowledge landscapes.

PubMed

Jaffe, Klaus

2014-01-01

Do different fields of knowledge require different research strategies? A numerical model exploring different virtual knowledge landscapes, revealed two diverging optimal search strategies. Trend following is maximized when the popularity of new discoveries determine the number of individuals researching it. This strategy works best when many researchers explore few large areas of knowledge. In contrast, individuals or small groups of researchers are better in discovering small bits of information in dispersed knowledge landscapes. Bibliometric data of scientific publications showed a continuous bipolar distribution of these strategies, ranging from natural sciences, with highly cited publications in journals containing a large number of articles, to the social sciences, with rarely cited publications in many journals containing a small number of articles. The natural sciences seem to adapt their research strategies to landscapes with large concentrated knowledge clusters, whereas social sciences seem to have adapted to search in landscapes with many small isolated knowledge clusters. Similar bipolar distributions were obtained when comparing levels of insularity estimated by indicators of international collaboration and levels of country-self citations: researchers in academic areas with many journals such as social sciences, arts and humanities, were the most isolated, and that was true in different regions of the world. The work shows that quantitative measures estimating differences between academic disciplines improve our understanding of different research strategies, eventually helping interdisciplinary research and may be also help improve science policies worldwide.

Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

2011-12-01

In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our analysis we quantified how including sub-500m burned area influenced global burned area, carbon emissions, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in different continental regions using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) biogeochemical model. We conclude by discussing validation needs using higher resolution visible and thermal imagery.

Small unmanned aerial vehicles (micro-UAVs, drones) in plant ecology.

PubMed

Cruzan, Mitchell B; Weinstein, Ben G; Grasty, Monica R; Kohrn, Brendan F; Hendrickson, Elizabeth C; Arredondo, Tina M; Thompson, Pamela G

2016-09-01

Low-elevation surveys with small aerial drones (micro-unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs]) may be used for a wide variety of applications in plant ecology, including mapping vegetation over small- to medium-sized regions. We provide an overview of methods and procedures for conducting surveys and illustrate some of these applications. Aerial images were obtained by flying a small drone along transects over the area of interest. Images were used to create a composite image (orthomosaic) and a digital surface model (DSM). Vegetation classification was conducted manually and using an automated routine. Coverage of an individual species was estimated from aerial images. We created a vegetation map for the entire region from the orthomosaic and DSM, and mapped the density of one species. Comparison of our manual and automated habitat classification confirmed that our mapping methods were accurate. A species with high contrast to the background matrix allowed adequate estimate of its coverage. The example surveys demonstrate that small aerial drones are capable of gathering large amounts of information on the distribution of vegetation and individual species with minimal impact to sensitive habitats. Low-elevation aerial surveys have potential for a wide range of applications in plant ecology.

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth’s ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understandin...

Lidar and Hyperspectral Remote Sensing for the Analysis of Coniferous Biomass Stocks and Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halligan, K. Q.; Roberts, D. A.

2006-12-01

Airborne lidar and hyperspectral data can improve estimates of aboveground carbon stocks and fluxes through their complimentary responses to vegetation structure and biochemistry. While strong relationships have been demonstrated between lidar-estimated vegetation structural parameters and field data, research is needed to explore the portability of these methods across a range of topographic conditions, disturbance histories, vegetation type and climate. Additionally, research is needed to evaluate contributions of hyperspectral data in refining biomass estimates and determination of fluxes. To address these questions we are a conducting study of lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data across sites including coniferous forests, broadleaf deciduous forests and a tropical rainforest. Here we focus on a single study site, Yellowstone National Park, where tree heights, stem locations, above ground biomass and basal area were mapped using first-return small-footprint lidar data. A new method using lidar intensity data was developed for separating the terrain and vegetation components in lidar data using a two-scale iterative local minima filter. Resulting Digital Terrain Models (DTM) and Digital Canopy Models (DCM) were then processed to retrieve a diversity of vertical and horizontal structure metrics. Univariate linear models were used to estimate individual tree heights while stepwise linear regression was used to estimate aboveground biomass and basal area. Three small-area field datasets were compared for their utility in model building and validation of vegetation structure parameters. All structural parameters were linearly correlated with lidar-derived metrics, with higher accuracies obtained where field and imagery data were precisely collocated . Initial analysis of hyperspectral data suggests that vegetation health metrics including measures of live and dead vegetation and stress indices may provide good indicators of carbon flux by mapping vegetation vigor or senescence. Additionally, the strength of hyperspectral data for vegetation classification suggests these data have additional utility for modeling carbon flux dynamics by allowing more accurate plant functional type mapping.

Where You Live Matters: Localising Environmental Impacts on Health, Nutrition and Poverty in Cambodia Using Small Area Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.

2016-12-01

Socioeconomic development depends on local environments. However, the scientific evidence quantifying the impact of environmental factors on health, nutrition and poverty at subnational levels is limited. This is because socioeconomic indicators are derived from sample surveys representative only at aggregate levels compared to environmental variables mostly available in high-resolution grids. Cambodia was selected because of its commitment to development in the context of a rapidly deteriorating environment. Having made considerable progress since 2005, access to health services is limited, a quarter of the population is still poor and 40% rural children are malnourished. Cambodia is also facing considerable environmental challenges including high deforestation rates, land degradation and natural hazards. Addressing existing gaps in the knowledge of environmental impacts on health and livelihoods, this study applies small area estimation (SAE) to quantify health, nutritional and poverty outcomes in the context of local environments. SAE produces reliable subnational estimates of socioeconomic outcomes available only from sample surveys by combining them with information from auxiliary sources (census). A model is used to explain common trades across areas and a random effect structure is applied to explain the observed extra heterogeneity. SAE models predicting health, nutrition and poverty outcomes excluding and including contextual environmental variables on natural hazards vulnerability, forest cover, climate, and agricultural production are compared. Results are mapped at regional and district levels to spatially assess the impacts of environmental variation on the outcomes. Inter and intra-regional inequalities are also estimated to examine the efficacy of health/socioeconomic policy targeting based on geographic location. Preliminary results suggest that localised environmental factors have considerable impacts on the indicators estimated and should therefore not be ignored. While there are large regional differences, pockets of malnutrition, poverty and inequitable health outcomes within regions are identified. The inequality decomposition shows under and over-coverage of geographical targeting when environmental factors are taken into account.

Deformation Estimation In Non-Urban Areas Exploiting High Resolution SAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Kanika; Adam, Nico

2012-01-01

Advanced techniques such as the Small Baseline Subset Algorithm (SBAS) have been developed for terrain motion mapping in non-urban areas with a focus on extracting information from distributed scatterers (DSs). SBAS uses small baseline differential interferograms (to limit the effects of geometric decorrelation) and these are typically multilooked to reduce phase noise, resulting in loss of resolution. Various error sources e.g. phase unwrapping errors, topographic errors, temporal decorrelation and atmospheric effects also affect the interferometric phase. The aim of our work is an improved deformation monitoring in non-urban areas exploiting high resolution SAR data. The paper provides technical details and a processing example of a newly developed technique which incorporates an adaptive spatial phase filtering algorithm for an accurate high resolution differential interferometric stacking, followed by deformation retrieval via the SBAS approach where we perform the phase inversion using a more robust L1 norm minimization.

The regional abundance and size distribution of lakes and reservoirs in the United States and implication for estimates of global lake extent

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, Cory P.; Rover, Jennifer; Stets, Edward G.; Striegl, Robert G.

2012-01-01

We analyzed complete geospatial data for the 3.5 million lakes and reservoirs larger than 0.001 km2, with a combined surface area of 131,000 km2, in the contiguous United States (excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes) and identified their regional distribution characteristics. For Alaska, we also analyzed (1) incomplete data that suggest that the state contains 1–2.5 million lakes larger than 0.001 km2 covering over 50,000 km2 and (2) localized high-resolution (5 m) data that suggest that the number of very small water bodies (< 0.001 km2) may be comparable with the number of lakes > 0.001 km2 in some areas. The Pareto distribution cannot accurately describe the lake abundance-size relationship across the entire size spectrum, and extrapolation of this density function to small size classes has likely resulted in the overestimation of the number of small lakes in the world. While small water bodies dominate in terms of numbers, they are not numerous enough to dominate in terms of surface area, as has been previously suggested. Extending our results to the global scale suggests that there are on the order of 64 million water bodies larger than 0.001 km2 in the world, with a total surface area of approximately 3.8 million km2.

Reaction Time Is Negatively Associated with Corpus Callosum Area in the Early Stages of CADASIL.

PubMed

Delorme, S; De Guio, F; Reyes, S; Jabouley, A; Chabriat, H; Jouvent, E

2017-11-01

Reaction time was recently recognized as a marker of subtle cognitive and behavioral alterations in the early clinical stages of CADASIL, a monogenic cerebral small-vessel disease. In unselected patients with CADASIL, brain atrophy and lacunes are the main imaging correlates of disease severity, but MR imaging correlates of reaction time in mildly affected patients are unknown. We hypothesized that reaction time is independently associated with the corpus callosum area in the early clinical stages of CADASIL. Twenty-six patients with CADASIL without dementia (Mini-Mental State Examination score > 24 and no cognitive symptoms) and without disability (modified Rankin Scale score ≤ 1) were compared with 29 age- and sex-matched controls. Corpus callosum area was determined on 3D-T1 MR imaging sequences with validated methodology. Between-group comparisons were performed with t tests or χ 2 tests when appropriate. Relationships between reaction time and corpus callosum area were tested using linear regression modeling. Reaction time was significantly related to corpus callosum area in patients (estimate = -7.4 × 10 3 , standard error = 3.3 × 10 3 , P = .03) even after adjustment for age, sex, level of education, and scores of depression and apathy (estimate = -12.2 × 10 3 , standard error = 3.8 × 10 3 , P = .005). No significant relationship was observed in controls. Corpus callosum area, a simple and robust imaging parameter, appears to be an independent correlate of reaction time at the early clinical stages of CADASIL. Further studies will determine whether corpus callosum area can be used as an outcome in future clinical trials in CADASIL or in more prevalent small-vessel diseases. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

2004-01-01

A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

Evaluation of Major Dike-Impounded Ground-Water Reservoirs, Island of Oahu

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takasaki, Kiyoshi J.; Mink, John Francis

1985-01-01

Ground-water reservoirs impounded by volcanic dikes receive a substantial part of the total recharge to ground water on the island of Oahu because they generally underlie the rainiest areas. These reservoirs accumulate the infiltration from rainfall, store it temporarily, and steadily leak it to abutting basal reservoirs or to streams cutting into them. The dike reservoirs have high hydraulic heads and are mostly isolated from saline water. The most important and productive of the dike-impounded reservoirs are in an area of about 135 square miles in the main fissure zone of the Koolau volcano where the top of the dike-impounded water reaches an altitude of at least 1,000 feet. Water is impounded and stored both above and below sea level. The water stored above sea level in the 135 square mile area has been roughly estimated at 560 billion gallons. In comparison, the water stored above sea level in reservoirs underlying a dike-intruded area of about 53 square miles in the Waianae Range has been roughly estimated at 100 billion gallons. Storage below sea level is indeterminable, owing to uncertainties about the ability of the rock to store water as dike density increases and porosity decreases. Tunnels, by breaching dike controls, have reduced the water stored above sea level by at least 50 billion gallons in the Koolau Range and by 5 1/2 billion gallons in the Waianae Range, only a small part of the total water stored. Total leakage from storage in the Koolau Range has been estimated at about 280 Mgal/d (million gallons per day). This estimated leakage from the dike-impounded reservoirs makes up a significant part of the ground-water yield of the Koolau Range, which has been estimated to range from 450 to 580 Mgal/d. The largest unused surface leakage is in the Kaneohe, Kahana, and Punaluu areas, and the largest unused underflow occurs in the Waialee, Hauula-Laie, Punaluu, and Kahana areas. The unused underflow leakage is small in areas near and east of Waialae, but it is an important supply because of the great need for augmenting water supplies there. Total leakage from storage in the Waianae Range has not been estimated because underflow is difficult to determine. Much of the surface leakage, about 4 Mgal/d in the upper parts of Waianae, Makaha, and Lualualei Valleys, has been diverted by tunnels. Hence, supplies available, other than surface leakage, cannot be estimated from the discharge end of the hydrologic cycle. Infiltration in the Waianae Range to dike-intruded reservoirs in the upper part of the valleys on the west (leeward) side has been estimated at about 20 Mgal/d, and on the east (windward) side, at about 10 Mgal/d. The available supply has been estimated at about 15 Mgal/d from the infiltration on the leeward side, of which about 4 Mgal/d is now being developed. No estimate has been made for the available supply on the windward side. Dike-intruded reservoirs at shallow depths west (lee side) of the crest are in upper Makaha, Waianae, and Lualualei Valleys. They are at moderate depths in upper Haleanu and in lower Kaukonahua Gulches on the east (windward) side. Flow hydraulics in dike tunnels is also discussed.

Absolute binding free energies between T4 lysozyme and 141 small molecules: calculations based on multiple rigid receptor configurations

PubMed Central

Xie, Bing; Nguyen, Trung Hai; Minh, David D. L.

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating protein-ligand binding free energies using multiple rigid receptor configurations. Based on T4 lysozyme snapshots extracted from six alchemical binding free energy calculations with a flexible receptor, binding free energies were estimated for a total of 141 ligands. For 24 ligands, the calculations reproduced flexible-receptor estimates with a correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a root mean square error of 1.59 kcal/mol. The accuracy of calculations based on Poisson-Boltzmann/Surface Area implicit solvent was comparable to previously reported free energy calculations. PMID:28430432

Rain volume estimation over areas using satellite and radar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Vonderhaar, T. H.

1985-01-01

An investigation of the feasibility of rain volume estimation using satellite data following a technique recently developed with radar data called the Arera Time Integral was undertaken. Case studies were selected on the basis of existing radar and satellite data sets which match in space and time. Four multicell clusters were analyzed. Routines for navigation remapping amd smoothing of satellite images were performed. Visible counts were normalized for solar zenith angle. A radar sector of interest was defined to delineate specific radar echo clusters for each radar time throughout the radar echo cluster lifetime. A satellite sector of interest was defined by applying small adjustments to the radar sector using a manual processing technique. The radar echo area, the IR maximum counts and the IR counts matching radar echo areas were found to evolve similarly, except for the decaying phase of the cluster where the cirrus debris keeps the IR counts high.

DOLLY SODS WILDERNESS, WEST VIRGINIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Englund, Kenneth J.; Hill, James J.

1984-01-01

Coal, the principal mineral resource of the Dolly Sods Wilderness, West Virginia is in at least seven beds of low- to medium-volatile bituminous rank. Of these beds, four are of sufficient thickness, quality, and extent to contain demonstrated coal resources which are estimated to total about 15. 5 million short tons in areas of substantiated coal resource potential. A Small-scale development of the coal resources of the Dolly Sods Wilderness has been by several shallow adits which provided fuel for locomotives during early logging operations and by a one truck mine. All mine entries are now abandoned. Peat, shale, clay, and sandstone, occur in the area but because of remoteness of markets and inaccessability they are not classified as resources in this report. Natural gas may occur in rocks underlying the area, but because of a lack of subsurface information an estimate of resource potential has not been made. No evidence of metallic-mineral resources was found during this investigation.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Application of lightning data to satellite-based rainfall estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, David W.; Hinton, Barry B.; Auvine, Brian A.

1991-01-01

Information on lightning may improve rain estimates made from infrared images of a geostationary satellite. We address this proposition through a case from the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX). During the afternoon and evening of 13 July 1986 waves of showers and thunderstorms developed over and near the lower Tennessee River Valley. For the shower and thunderstorm region within 200 km of the National Weather Service radar at Nashville, Tennessee, we measure cold-cloud area in a sequence of GOES infrared images covering all but the end of the shower and thunderstorm period. From observations of the NASA/Marshall direction-finding network in this small domain, we also count cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and, from scans of the Nashville radar, we calculate volume rain flux. Using a modified version of the Williams and Houze scheme, over an area within roughly 240 km of the radar (the large domain), we identify and track cold cloud systems. For these systems, over the large domain, we measure area and count flashes; over the small domain, we calculate volume rain flux. For a temperature threshold of 235K, peak cloud area over the small domain lags both peak rain flux and peak flash count by about four hours. At a threshold of 226K, the lag is about two hours. Flashes and flux are matched in phase. Over the large domain, nine storm systems occur. These range in size from 300 to 60,000 km(exp 2); in lifetime, from about 2 1/2 h to 6 h or more. Storm system area lags volume rain flux and flash count; nevertheless, it is linked with these variables. In essential respects the associations were the same when clouds were defined by a threshold of 226K. Tentatively, we conclude that flash counts complement infrared images in providing significant additional information on rain flux.

Crustal deformation associated with an M8.1 earthquake in the Solomon Islands, detected by ALOS/PALSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyagi, Yousuke; Ozawa, Taku; Shimada, Masanobu

2009-10-01

On April 1, 2007 (UTC), a large Mw 8.1 interplate earthquake struck the Solomon Islands subduction zone where complicated tectonics result from the subduction of four plates. Extensive ground movements and a large tsunami occurred in the epicentral area causing severe damage over a wide area. Using ALOS/PALSAR data and the DInSAR technique, we detected crustal deformation exceeding 2 m in islands close to the epicenter. A slip distribution of the inferred seismic fault was estimated using geodetic information derived from DInSAR processing and field investigations. The result indicates large slip areas around the hypocenter and the centroid. It is possible that the largest slip area is related to subduction of the plate boundary between the Woodlark and Australian plates. A small slip area between those large slip areas may indicate weak coupling due to thermal activity related to volcanic activity on Simbo Island. The 2007 earthquake struck an area where large earthquake has not occurred since 1970. Most of this seismic gap was filled by the 2007 events, however a small seismic gap still remains in the southeastern region of the 2007 earthquake.

Dealing with uncertainty in landscape genetic resistance models: a case of three co-occurring marsupials.

PubMed

Dudaniec, Rachael Y; Worthington Wilmer, Jessica; Hanson, Jeffrey O; Warren, Matthew; Bell, Sarah; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2016-01-01

Landscape genetics lacks explicit methods for dealing with the uncertainty in landscape resistance estimation, which is particularly problematic when sample sizes of individuals are small. Unless uncertainty can be quantified, valuable but small data sets may be rendered unusable for conservation purposes. We offer a method to quantify uncertainty in landscape resistance estimates using multimodel inference as an improvement over single model-based inference. We illustrate the approach empirically using co-occurring, woodland-preferring Australian marsupials within a common study area: two arboreal gliders (Petaurus breviceps, and Petaurus norfolcensis) and one ground-dwelling antechinus (Antechinus flavipes). First, we use maximum-likelihood and a bootstrap procedure to identify the best-supported isolation-by-resistance model out of 56 models defined by linear and non-linear resistance functions. We then quantify uncertainty in resistance estimates by examining parameter selection probabilities from the bootstrapped data. The selection probabilities provide estimates of uncertainty in the parameters that drive the relationships between landscape features and resistance. We then validate our method for quantifying uncertainty using simulated genetic and landscape data showing that for most parameter combinations it provides sensible estimates of uncertainty. We conclude that small data sets can be informative in landscape genetic analyses provided uncertainty can be explicitly quantified. Being explicit about uncertainty in landscape genetic models will make results more interpretable and useful for conservation decision-making, where dealing with uncertainty is critical. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Echocardiography underestimates stroke volume and aortic valve area: implications for patients with small-area low-gradient aortic stenosis.

PubMed

Chin, Calvin W L; Khaw, Hwan J; Luo, Elton; Tan, Shuwei; White, Audrey C; Newby, David E; Dweck, Marc R

2014-09-01

Discordance between small aortic valve area (AVA; < 1.0 cm(2)) and low mean pressure gradient (MPG; < 40 mm Hg) affects a third of patients with moderate or severe aortic stenosis (AS). We hypothesized that this is largely due to inaccurate echocardiographic measurements of the left ventricular outflow tract area (LVOTarea) and stroke volume alongside inconsistencies in recommended thresholds. One hundred thirty-three patients with mild to severe AS and 33 control individuals underwent comprehensive echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stroke volume and LVOTarea were calculated using echocardiography and MRI, and the effects on AVA estimation were assessed. The relationship between AVA and MPG measurements was then modelled with nonlinear regression and consistent thresholds for these parameters calculated. Finally the effect of these modified AVA measurements and novel thresholds on the number of patients with small-area low-gradient AS was investigated. Compared with MRI, echocardiography underestimated LVOTarea (n = 40; -0.7 cm(2); 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.6 to 1.3), stroke volumes (-6.5 mL/m(2); 95% CI, -28.9 to 16.0) and consequently, AVA (-0.23 cm(2); 95% CI, -1.01 to 0.59). Moreover, an AVA of 1.0 cm(2) corresponded to MPG of 24 mm Hg based on echocardiographic measurements and 37 mm Hg after correction with MRI-derived stroke volumes. Based on conventional measures, 56 patients had discordant small-area low-gradient AS. Using MRI-derived stroke volumes and the revised thresholds, a 48% reduction in discordance was observed (n = 29). Echocardiography underestimated LVOTarea, stroke volume, and therefore AVA, compared with MRI. The thresholds based on current guidelines were also inconsistent. In combination, these factors explain > 40% of patients with discordant small-area low-gradient AS. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in geographic access to specialist inpatient hospices in England and Wales.

PubMed

Gatrell, Anthony C; Wood, D Justin

2012-07-01

We seek to map and describe variation in geographic access to the set of 189 specialist adult inpatient hospices in England and Wales. Using almost 35,000 small Census areas (Local Super Output Areas: LSOAs) as our units of analysis, the locations of hospices, and estimated drive times from LSOAs to hospices we construct an accessibility 'score' for each LSOA, for England and Wales as a whole. Data on cancer mortality are used as a proxy for the 'demand' for hospice care and we then identify that subset of small areas in which accessibility (service supply) is relatively poor yet the potential 'demand' for hospice services is above average. That subset is then filtered according to the deprivation score for each LSOA, in order to identify those LSOAs which are also above average in terms of deprivation. While urban areas are relatively well served, large parts of England and Wales have poor access to hospices, and there is a risk that the needs of those living in relatively deprived areas may be unmet. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Spatial Distribution of Adult Obesity Prevalence in Denver County, Colorado: An Empirical Bayes Approach to Adjust EHR-Derived Small Area Estimates.

PubMed

Tabano, David C; Bol, Kirk; Newcomer, Sophia R; Barrow, Jennifer C; Daley, Matthew F

2017-12-06

Measuring obesity prevalence across geographic areas should account for environmental and socioeconomic factors that contribute to spatial autocorrelation, the dependency of values in estimates across neighboring areas, to mitigate the bias in measures and risk of type I errors in hypothesis testing. Dependency among observations across geographic areas violates statistical independence assumptions and may result in biased estimates. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators reduce the variability of estimates with spatial autocorrelation, which limits the overall mean square-error and controls for sample bias. Using the Colorado Body Mass Index (BMI) Monitoring System, we modeled the spatial autocorrelation of adult (≥ 18 years old) obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg m 2 ) measurements using patient-level electronic health record data from encounters between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. Obesity prevalence was estimated among census tracts with >=10 observations in Denver County census tracts during the study period. We calculated the Moran's I statistic to test for spatial autocorrelation across census tracts, and mapped crude and EB obesity prevalence across geographic areas. In Denver County, there were 143 census tracts with 10 or more observations, representing a total of 97,710 adults with a valid BMI. The crude obesity prevalence for adults in Denver County was 29.8 percent (95% CI 28.4-31.1%) and ranged from 12.8 to 45.2 percent across individual census tracts. EB obesity prevalence was 30.2 percent (95% CI 28.9-31.5%) and ranged from 15.3 to 44.3 percent across census tracts. Statistical tests using the Moran's I statistic suggest adult obesity prevalence in Denver County was distributed in a non-random pattern. Clusters of EB obesity estimates were highly significant (alpha=0.05) in neighboring census tracts. Concentrations of obesity estimates were primarily in the west and north in Denver County. Statistical tests reveal adult obesity prevalence exhibit spatial autocorrelation in Denver County at the census tract level. EB estimates for obesity prevalence can be used to control for spatial autocorrelation between neighboring census tracts and may produce less biased estimates of obesity prevalence.

Annual peak streamflow and ancillary data for small watersheds in central and western Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harwell, Glenn R.; Asquith, William H.

2011-01-01

Estimates of annual peak-streamflow frequency are needed for flood-plain management, assessment of flood risk, and design of structures, such as roads, bridges, culverts, dams, and levees. Regional regression equations have been developed and are used extensively to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) watersheds in Texas (Asquith and Slade, 1997; Asquith and Thompson, 2008; Asquith and Roussel, 2009). The most recent regional regression equations were developed by using data from 638 Texas streamflow-gaging stations throughout the State with eight or more years of data by using drainage area, channel slope, and mean annual precipitation as predictor variables (Asquith and Roussel, 2009). However, because of a lack of sufficient historical streamflow data from small, rural watersheds in certain parts of the State (central and western), substantial uncertainity exists when using the regional regression equations for the purpose of estimating annual peak-streamflow frequency.

The evolution of the complex sensory and motor systems of the human brain.

PubMed

Kaas, Jon H

2008-03-18

Inferences about how the complex sensory and motor systems of the human brain evolved are based on the results of comparative studies of brain organization across a range of mammalian species, and evidence from the endocasts of fossil skulls of key extinct species. The endocasts of the skulls of early mammals indicate that they had small brains with little neocortex. Evidence from comparative studies of cortical organization from small-brained mammals of the six major branches of mammalian evolution supports the conclusion that the small neocortex of early mammals was divided into roughly 20-25 cortical areas, including primary and secondary sensory fields. In early primates, vision was the dominant sense, and cortical areas associated with vision in temporal and occipital cortex underwent a significant expansion. Comparative studies indicate that early primates had 10 or more visual areas, and somatosensory areas with expanded representations of the forepaw. Posterior parietal cortex was also expanded, with a caudal half dominated by visual inputs, and a rostral half dominated by somatosensory inputs with outputs to an array of seven or more motor and visuomotor areas of the frontal lobe. Somatosensory areas and posterior parietal cortex became further differentiated in early anthropoid primates. As larger brains evolved in early apes and in our hominin ancestors, the number of cortical areas increased to reach an estimated 200 or so in present day humans, and hemispheric specializations emerged. The large human brain grew primarily by increasing neuron number rather than increasing average neuron size.

Exposure to trihalomethanes through different water uses and birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm delivery in Spain.

PubMed

Villanueva, Cristina M; Gracia-Lavedán, Esther; Ibarluzea, Jesús; Santa Marina, Loreto; Ballester, Ferran; Llop, Sabrina; Tardón, Adonina; Fernández, Mariana F; Freire, Carmen; Goñi, Fernando; Basagaña, Xavier; Kogevinas, Manolis; Grimalt, Joan O; Sunyer, Jordi

2011-12-01

Evidence associating exposure to water disinfection by-products with reduced birth weight and altered duration of gestation remains inconclusive. We assessed exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) during pregnancy through different water uses and evaluated the association with birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), and preterm delivery. Mother-child cohorts set up in five Spanish areas during the years 2000-2008 contributed data on water ingestion, showering, bathing, and swimming in pools. We ascertained residential THM levels during pregnancy periods through ad hoc sampling campaigns (828 measurements) and regulatory data (264 measurements), which were modeled and combined with personal water use and uptake factors to estimate personal uptake. We defined outcomes following standard definitions and included 2,158 newborns in the analysis. Median residential THM ranged from 5.9 μg/L (Valencia) to 114.7 μg/L (Sabadell), and speciation differed across areas. We estimated that 89% of residential chloroform and 96% of brominated THM uptakes were from showering/bathing. The estimated change of birth weight for a 10% increase in residential uptake was -0.45 g (95% confidence interval: -1.36, 0.45 g) for chloroform and 0.16 g (-1.38, 1.70 g) for brominated THMs. Overall, THMs were not associated with SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery. Despite the high THM levels in some areas and the extensive exposure assessment, results suggest that residential THM exposure during pregnancy driven by inhalation and dermal contact routes is not associated with birth weight, SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery in Spain.

Geographic Variation in the Use of Adjuvant Therapy among Elderly Patients with Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Tien, Yu-Yu; Wright, Kara; Halfdanarson, Thorvardur R.; Abu-Hejleh, Taher; Brooks, John M.

2016-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent geographic variation in adjuvant treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients would remain, after controlling for patient and area-level characteristics. Materials and Methods A retrospective cohort of 18,410 Medicare beneficiaries with resected, stage I-IIIA NSCLC was identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Adjuvant therapies were classified as adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), postoperative radiation therapy (PORT), or no adjuvant therapy. Predicted treatment probabilities were estimated for each patient given their clinical, demographic, and area-level characteristics with multivariate logistic regression. Area Treatment Ratios were used to estimate the propensity of patients in a local area to receive an adjuvant treatment, controlling for characteristics of patients in the area. Areas were categorized as low-, mid- and high-use and mapped for two representative SEER registries. Results Overall, 10%, 12%, and 78% of patients received ACT, PORT and no adjuvant therapy, respectively. Age, sex, stage, type and year of surgery, and comorbidity were associated with adjuvant treatment use. Even after adjusting for patient characteristics, substantial geographic treatment variation remained. High- and low-use areas were tightly juxtaposed within and across SEER registries, often within the same county. In some local areas, patients were up to eight times more likely to receive adjuvant therapy than expected, given their characteristics. On the other hand, almost a quarter of patients lived in local areas in which patients were more than three times less likely to receive ACT than would be predicted. Conclusion Controlling for patient and area-level covariates did not remove geographic variation in adjuvant therapies for resected NSCLC patients. A greater proportion of patients were treated less than expected, rather than more than expected. Further research is needed to better understand its causes and potential impact on outcomes. PMID:27040848

Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States. A Detailed Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

2016-01-01

How much energy could be generated if PV modules were installed on all of the suitable roof area in the nation? To answer this question, we first use GIS methods to process a lidar dataset and determine the amount of roof area that is suitable for PV deployment in 128 cities nationwide, containing 23% of U.S. buildings, and provide PV-generation results for a subset of those cities. We then extend the insights from that analysis to the entire continental United States. We develop two statistical models--one for small buildings and one for medium and large buildings--and populate them with geographicmore » variables that correlate with rooftop's suitability for PV. We simulate the productivity of PV installed on the suitable roof area, and present the technical potential of PV on both small buildings and medium/large buildings for every state in the continental US. Within the 128 cities covered by lidar data, 83% of small buildings have a location suitable for a PV installation, but only 26% of the total rooftop area of small buildings is suitable for development. The sheer number of buildings in this class, however, gives small buildings the greatest technical potential. Small building rooftops could accommodate 731 GW of PV capacity and generate 926 TWh/year of PV energy, approximately 65% of rooftop PV's total technical potential. We conclude by summing the PV-generation results for all building sizes and therefore answering our original question, estimating that the total national technical potential of rooftop PV is 1,118 GW of installed capacity and 1,432 TWh of annual energy generation. This equates to 39% of total national electric-sector sales.« less

Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

2016-01-01

How much energy could we generate if PV modules were installed on all of the suitable roof area in the nation? To answer this question, we first use GIS methods to process a lidar dataset and determine the amount of roof area that is suitable for PV deployment in 128 cities nationwide, containing 23% of U.S. buildings, and provide PV-generation results for a subset of those cities. We then extend the insights from that analysis to the entire continental United States. We develop two statistical models -- one for small buildings and one for medium and large buildings -- andmore » populate them with geographic variables that correlate with rooftop's suitability for PV. We simulate the productivity of PV installed on the suitable roof area, and present the technical potential of PV on both small buildings and medium/large buildings for every state in the continental US. Within the 128 cities covered by lidar data, 83% of small buildings have a location suitable for a PV installation, but only 26% of the total rooftop area of small buildings is suitable for development. The sheer number of buildings in this class, however, gives small buildings the greatest technical potential. Small building rooftops could accommodate 731 GW of PV capacity and generate 926 TWh/year of PV energy, approximately 65% of rooftop PV's total technical potential. We conclude by summing the PV-generation results for all building sizes and therefore answering our original question, estimating that the total national technical potential of rooftop PV is 1,118 GW of installed capacity and 1,432 TWh of annual energy generation. This equates to 39% of total national electric-sector sales.« less

Estimating wind-turbine-caused bird and bat fatality when zero carcasses are observed.

PubMed

Huso, Manuela M P; Dalthorp, Dan; Dail, David; Madsen, Lisa

2015-07-01

Many wind-power facilities in the United States have established effective monitoring programs to determine turbine-caused fatality rates of birds and bats, but estimating the number of fatalities of rare species poses special difficulties. The loss of even small numbers of individuals may adversely affect fragile populations, but typically, few (if any) carcasses are observed during monitoring. If monitoring design results in only a small proportion of carcasses detected, then finding zero carcasses may give little assurance that the number of actual fatalities is small. Fatality monitoring at wind-power facilities commonly involves conducting experiments to estimate the probability (g) an individual will be observed, accounting for the possibilities that it falls in an unsearched area, is scavenged prior to detection, or remains undetected even when present. When g < 1, the total carcass count (X) underestimates the total number of fatalities (M). Total counts can be 0 when M is small or when M is large and g < 1. Distinguishing these two cases is critical when estimating fatality of a rare species. Observing no individuals during searches may erroneously be interpreted as evidence of absence. We present an approach that uses Bayes' theorem to construct a posterior distribution for M, i.e., P(M \\ X, ĝ), reflecting the observed carcass count and previously estimated g. From this distribution, we calculate two values important to conservation: the probability that M is below a predetermined limit and the upper bound (M*) of the 100(1 - α)% credible interval for M. We investigate the dependence of M* on α, g, and the prior distribution of M, asking what value of g is required to attain a desired M for a given α. We found that when g < -0.15, M* was clearly influenced by the mean and variance of ĝ and the choice of prior distribution for M, but the influence of these factors is minimal when g > -0.45. Further, we develop extensions for temporal replication that can inform prior distributions of M and methods for combining information across several areas or time periods. We apply the method to data collected at a wind-power facility where scheduled searches yielded X = 0 raptor carcasses.

Incompatible Land Uses and the Topology of Cumulative Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lejano, Raul P.; Smith, C. Scott

2006-02-01

The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk, namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles (SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed, such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to 200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care.

A computer simulation approach to quantify the true area and true area compressibility modulus of biological membranes.

PubMed

Chacón, Enrique; Tarazona, Pedro; Bresme, Fernando

2015-07-21

We present a new computational approach to quantify the area per lipid and the area compressibility modulus of biological membranes. Our method relies on the analysis of the membrane fluctuations using our recently introduced coupled undulatory (CU) mode [Tarazona et al., J. Chem. Phys. 139, 094902 (2013)], which provides excellent estimates of the bending modulus of model membranes. Unlike the projected area, widely used in computer simulations of membranes, the CU area is thermodynamically consistent. This new area definition makes it possible to accurately estimate the area of the undulating bilayer, and the area per lipid, by excluding any contributions related to the phospholipid protrusions. We find that the area per phospholipid and the area compressibility modulus features a negligible dependence with system size, making possible their computation using truly small bilayers, involving a few hundred lipids. The area compressibility modulus obtained from the analysis of the CU area fluctuations is fully consistent with the Hooke's law route. Unlike existing methods, our approach relies on a single simulation, and no a priori knowledge of the bending modulus is required. We illustrate our method by analyzing 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine bilayers using the coarse grained MARTINI force-field. The area per lipid and area compressibility modulus obtained with our method and the MARTINI forcefield are consistent with previous studies of these bilayers.

A computer simulation approach to quantify the true area and true area compressibility modulus of biological membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón, Enrique; Tarazona, Pedro; Bresme, Fernando

2015-07-01

We present a new computational approach to quantify the area per lipid and the area compressibility modulus of biological membranes. Our method relies on the analysis of the membrane fluctuations using our recently introduced coupled undulatory (CU) mode [Tarazona et al., J. Chem. Phys. 139, 094902 (2013)], which provides excellent estimates of the bending modulus of model membranes. Unlike the projected area, widely used in computer simulations of membranes, the CU area is thermodynamically consistent. This new area definition makes it possible to accurately estimate the area of the undulating bilayer, and the area per lipid, by excluding any contributions related to the phospholipid protrusions. We find that the area per phospholipid and the area compressibility modulus features a negligible dependence with system size, making possible their computation using truly small bilayers, involving a few hundred lipids. The area compressibility modulus obtained from the analysis of the CU area fluctuations is fully consistent with the Hooke's law route. Unlike existing methods, our approach relies on a single simulation, and no a priori knowledge of the bending modulus is required. We illustrate our method by analyzing 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine bilayers using the coarse grained MARTINI force-field. The area per lipid and area compressibility modulus obtained with our method and the MARTINI forcefield are consistent with previous studies of these bilayers.

Remote estimation of crown size and tree density in snowy areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishi, R.; Ito, A.; Kamada, K.; Fukita, T.; Lahrita, L.; Kawase, Y.; Murahashi, K.; Kawamata, H.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2017-12-01

Precise estimation of tree density in the forest leads us to understand the amount of carbon dioxide fixed by plants. Aerial photographs have been used to measure the number of trees. Campaign using aircraft, however, is expensive ( $50,000/1 campaign flight) and the research area is limited in drone. In addition, previous studies estimating the density of trees from aerial photographs have been performed in the summer, so there was a gap of 15% in the estimation due to the overlapping of the leaves. Here, we have proposed a method to accurately estimate the number of forest trees from the satellite images of snow-covered deciduous forest area, using the ratio of branches to snow. The advantages of our method are as follows; 1) snow area could be excluded easily due to the high reflectance, 2) tree branches are small overlapping compared to leaves. Although our method can use only in the snowfall region, the area covered with snow in the world becomes more than 12,800,000 km2. Our proposition should play an important role in discussing global warming. As a test area, we have chosen the forest near Mt. Amano in Iwate prefecture in Japan. First, we made a new index of (Band1-Band5)/(Band1+Band5), which will be suitable to distinguish between the snow and the tree trunk using the corresponding spectral reflection data. Next, the index values of changing the ratio in 1% increments were listed. From the satellite image analysis at 4 points, the ratio of snow to tree trunk showed the following values, I:61%, II:65%, III:66% and IV:65%. To confirm the estimation, we used the aerial photograph from Google earth; the rate was I:42.05%, II:48.89%, III:50.64%, IV:49.05%, respectively. There is a correlation between the numerical values of both, but there are differences. We will discuss in detail at this point, focusing on the effect of shadows.

Rapid determination of leaf area and plant height by using light curtain arrays in four species with contrasting shoot architecture.

PubMed

Fanourakis, Dimitrios; Briese, Christoph; Max, Johannes Fj; Kleinen, Silke; Putz, Alexander; Fiorani, Fabio; Ulbrich, Andreas; Schurr, Ulrich

2014-04-11

Light curtain arrays (LC), a recently introduced phenotyping method, yield a binary data matrix from which a shoot silhouette is reconstructed. We addressed the accuracy and applicability of LC in assessing leaf area and maximum height (base to the highest leaf tip) in a phenotyping platform. LC were integrated to an automated routine for positioning, allowing in situ measurements. Two dicotyledonous (rapeseed, tomato) and two monocotyledonous (maize, barley) species with contrasting shoot architecture were investigated. To evaluate if averaging multiple view angles helps in resolving self-overlaps, we acquired a data set by rotating plants every 10° for 170°. To test how rapid these measurements can be without loss of information, we evaluated nine scanning speeds. Leaf area of overlapping plants was also estimated to assess the possibility to scale this method for plant stands. The relation between measured and calculated maximum height was linear and nearly the same for all species. Linear relations were also found between plant leaf area and calculated pixel area. However, the regression slope was different between monocotyledonous and dicotyledonous species. Increasing the scanning speed stepwise from 0.9 to 23.4 m s-1 did not affect the estimation of maximum height. Instead, the calculated pixel area was inversely proportional to scanning speed. The estimation of plant leaf area by means of calculated pixel area became more accurate by averaging consecutive silhouettes and/or increasing the angle between them. Simulations showed that decreasing plant distance gradually from 20 to 0 cm, led to underestimation of plant leaf area owing to overlaps. This underestimation was more important for large plants of dicotyledonous species and for small plants of monocotyledonous ones. LC offer an accurate estimation of plant leaf area and maximum height, while the number of consecutive silhouettes that needs to be averaged is species-dependent. A constant scanning speed is important for leaf area estimations by using LC. Simulations of the effect of varying plant spacing gave promising results for method application in sets of partly overlapping plants, which applies also to field conditions during and after canopy closure for crops sown in rows.

Master Plan for Educational Facilities: Midland Park, Bergen County, New Jersey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engelhardt and Engelhardt, Inc., Purdy Station, NY.

Midland Park, New Jersey, is a small borough with an estimated population in 1978 of 8,500 persons. The first part of the master plan for educational facilities in the area begins with an overview using maps to illustrate characteristics including its topography, relationship to key population centers and major transportation routes, boundaries,…

Antarctic meteorite descriptions, 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Score, R.; Schwarz, C. M.; Mason, B.; Bogard, D. D.

1982-01-01

Specimens found in the Alan Hills area include 361 ordinary chondrites, 4 carbonaceous chondrites, 6 achondrites, and 2 irons. Thirteen specimens measured over 11 cm in diameter and 69 between 5 to 10 cm in diameter are reported. The remainder of the finds were small, and many were paired. One of the irons was estimated to weigh about 20 kilograms.

77 FR 75159 - Information Collection Being Submitted to the Office of Management and Budget for Emergency...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-19

... information shall have practical utility; the accuracy of the Commission's burden estimates; ways to enhance... burden on small business concerns with fewer than 25 employees. The FCC may not conduct or sponsor a..., 2013. OMB Control Number: 3060-XXXX. Title: Study Area Boundary Maps Reported in Esri Shapefile Format...

Carbon pools and fluxes in small temperate forest landscapes: Variability and implications for sampling design

Treesearch

John B. Bradford; Peter Weishampel; Marie-Louise Smith; Randall Kolka; Richard A. Birdsey; Scott V. Ollinger; Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

Assessing forest carbon storage and cycling over large areas is a growing challenge that is complicated by the inherent heterogeneity of forest systems. Field measurements must be conducted and analyzed appropriately to generate precise estimates at scales large enough for mapping or comparison with remote sensing data. In this study we examined...

Estimating forest attribute parameters for small areas using nearest neighbors techniques

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2012-01-01

Nearest neighbors techniques have become extremely popular, particularly for use with forest inventory data. With these techniques, a population unit prediction is calculated as a linear combination of observations for a selected number of population units in a sample that are most similar, or nearest, in a space of ancillary variables to the population unit requiring...

Library/Media Centers in U.S. Public Schools: Growth, Staffing, and Resources. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuck, Kathy D.; Holmes, Dwight R.

2016-01-01

This study analyzes data collected between 2000 and 2013 from the annual National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Common Core of Data (CCD) Local Education Agency (School District) Universe Survey; the NCES Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS); and the U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Survey (SAIPE). The findings…

Archaeological Data Recovery in the Abiquiu Reservoir Multiple Resource Area, New Mexico,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

location probably does not represent a locus of past human activity. Iso i .... .. 2 *1 . .. . .A LA27006 (AR56) Description: The site is a small...25566 27021 27047 25378 No topo map location for site (n 3) 27001 27002 27037 118 TABLE 10 ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL FREQUENCIES OF ARTIFACT CLASSES AT

Linking harvest choices to timber supply

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David N. Wear

2000-01-01

Aggregate timber supply by ownership was investigated for a small region by applying stand-level harvest choice models to a representative sample of stands and then aggregating to regional totals using the area-frame of the forest survey. Timber harvest choices were estimated as probit models for three ownership categories in coastal plain southern pine stands of North...

Detrital carbon pools in temperate forests: magnitude and potential for landscape-scale assessment

Treesearch

John B. Bradford; Peter Weishampel; Marie-Louise Smith; Randall Kolka; Richard A. Birdsey; Scott V. Ollinger; Michael G. Ryan

2009-01-01

Reliably estimating carbon storage and cycling in detrital biomass is an obstacle to carbon accounting. We examined carbon pools and fluxes in three small temperate forest landscapes to assess the magnitude of carbon stored in detrital biomass and determine whether detrital carbon storage is related to stand structural properties (leaf area, aboveground biomass,...

Master Plan for Educational Facilities: Garwood, Union County, New Jersey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engelhardt and Engelhardt, Inc., Purdy Station, NY.

Garwood, New Jersey, is a small borough of 0.69 square miles with an estimated population in 1978 of 4,856 persons. This master plan for educational facilities begins with an overview of the district that describes its beginnings as an industrial community. A number of maps illustrate characteristics of the area including its topography,…

Enumeration of prairie wetlands with Landsat and aircraft data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilmer, D. S.; Work, E. A., Jr.; Colwell, J. E.; Rebel, D. L.

1980-01-01

A method is described for estimating wetland abundance in the 700,000 sq km prairie pothole region of North America. A double sampling procedure is described, incorporating the use of high resolution aircraft imagery, capable of delineating ponds as small as 5 m across, as a means of adjusting the count of surface water features derived from the low-resolution Landsat census over a 38,876 sq km area in east-central North Dakota. The regression expansion formula used to estimate the actual number of total wetlands is also presented.

Multi-year strongest California drought from 500 m SNPP/VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, W.; Kogan, F.

2016-12-01

Starting in 2006, the western United States was affected by a 10-year long mega-drought. Among 17 western states, California was the most severely drought-affected, especially in 2012-2015, when the area of stronger than moderate vegetation stress reached 70%. This drought had considerable impacts on California's environmental, economy and society. Currently, drought in the USA is monitored by the US Drought Monitor (USDM), which estimates drought area and intensity on an area with an effective resolution of around 30-by-30 km. California produces more than 90% of US fruits, vegetables, berries and nuts, which are grown on relatively small areas (200-500 acres, or 0.5 to 2 km²). Since most of these crops are irrigated, it is important to estimate crop conditions on the area comparable to the size of the planted crop. This paper demonstrates how the new 0.5-by-0.5 km Vegetation health (VH) technology (VH-500) developed from the data collected by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite launched in 2011, monitors the current mega-drought in California, distinguishing drought-affected area with and without irrigation and estimating drought start/end, intensity, duration and impacts. The VH-500 method and data showed that California's vegetation was under medium-to-exceptional stress, especially in 2013 and 2014. However, in the middle of such intensive stress, in some of the 500-m areas of the Central Valley where principal crops are growing, vegetation experienced favorable conditions because some of these crops were irrigated. The VH-500 drought estimates showed general similarities with the assessed economic drought impacts (crop fallowing, employment loss and crop revenue change) in California.

Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, M.S.; Burn, D.M.; Webber, M.A.

2008-01-01

Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

Source parameters for small events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake determined using empirical Green functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Frankel, A.

1990-01-01

Using small events as empirical Green functions, source parameters were estimated for 25 ML 3.4 to 4.4 events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs earthquake. The static stress drops ranged from 3 to 80 bars, for moments of 0.7 to 11 ?? 1021 dyne-cm. There was a spatial pattern to the stress drops of the aftershocks which showed increasing values along the fault plane toward the northwest compared to relatively low values near the hypocenter of the mainshock. The highest values were outside the main area of slip, and are believed to reflect a loaded area of the fault that still has an higher level of stress which was not released during the main shock. -from Authors

Predicting Periodontitis at State and Local Levels in the United States.

PubMed

Eke, P I; Zhang, X; Lu, H; Wei, L; Thornton-Evans, G; Greenlund, K J; Holt, J B; Croft, J B

2016-05-01

The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis at state and local levels across the United States by using a novel, small area estimation (SAE) method. Extended multilevel regression and poststratification analyses were used to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis among adults aged 30 to 79 y at state, county, congressional district, and census tract levels by using periodontal data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2012, population counts from the 2010 US census, and smoking status estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2012. The SAE method used age, race, gender, smoking, and poverty variables to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/American Academy of Periodontology case definitions at the census block levels and aggregated to larger administrative and geographic areas of interest. Model-based SAEs were validated against national estimates directly from NHANES 2009-2012. Estimated prevalence of periodontitis ranged from 37.7% in Utah to 52.8% in New Mexico among the states (mean, 45.1%; median, 44.9%) and from 33.7% to 68% among counties (mean, 46.6%; median, 45.9%). Severe periodontitis ranged from 7.27% in New Hampshire to 10.26% in Louisiana among the states (mean, 8.9%; median, 8.8%) and from 5.2% to 17.9% among counties (mean, 9.2%; median, 8.8%). Overall, the predicted prevalence of periodontitis was highest for southeastern and southwestern states and for geographic areas in the Southeast along the Mississippi Delta, as well as along the US and Mexico border. Aggregated model-based SAEs were consistent with national prevalence estimates from NHANES 2009-2012. This study is the first-ever estimation of periodontitis prevalence at state and local levels in the United States, and this modeling approach complements public health surveillance efforts to identify areas with a high burden of periodontitis. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2016.

Water resources of part of Canyonlands National Park, southeastern Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumsion, C.T.; Bloke, E.L.

1972-01-01

Canyonlands National Park is in about the center of the Canyon Lands section of the Colorado Plateaus physiographic province in southeastern Utah. The part of the park discussed embraces an area of about 400 square miles comprising isolated mesas, precipitous canyons, and dissected broad benches near the confluence of the Green and Colorado Rivers, the only perennial streams in the area. The climate is arid to semiarid; normal annual precipitation ranges from less than 8 to about 10 inches. Potential evapotranspiration is about 41 inches annually.Geology of the park is characterized by nearly horizontal strata that dip gently northward. Exposed rock formations and deposits range in age from Middle Pennsylvanian to Holocene. Owing to the elevated and deeply dissected topography, only parts of the Cedar Mesa and White Rim Sandstone Members of the Cutler Formation of Permian age have potential for development of wells. Strata above and below them support only small springs, are dry, or contain brine.In the northwest part of the park, the Green River at Taylor Canyon is a potential source of surface water for public supplies for the Island In The Sky area and a small part of the northwest White Rim area. It will require filtration and treatment before use. In the same area, two unused wells in Taylor Canyon will supply enough water for present requirements from the White Rim Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation, about 140 gallons per minute combined, but yield mineralized water that will require treatment before use. Springs yielding good water at the Island In The Sky and White Rim are mostly intermittent and too small for public-water supply. Most of the White Rim area is dry, having no usable ground water. In The Needles area, wells provide water of good quality from the Cedar Mesa Sandstone Member of the Cutler Formation. Springs yielding good water in the same area are available for supplementary supplies. West of The Needles, The Grabens area is without springs or potential aquifers bearing usable water.During 1970 about 510,000 gallons of water was used in Canyonlands National Park. Of this amount, 110,000 gallons was supplied to Island In The Sky by tank truck from a source outside the park, and about 400,000 gallons was withdrawn from the well in use at The Needles. Estimated total annual requirements in 10 years (1980) may be as much as 6 million gallons. Sources of water supplies within the park now in use and potential sources of surface water or ground water outlined by this investigation will meet the estimated requirements. Development of rainfall-collection and cistern-storage systems could furnish small emergency sources of water for waterless areas on the White Rim and in The Grabens.

Adjusting for sampling variability in sparse data: geostatistical approaches to disease mapping

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Disease maps of crude rates from routinely collected health data indexed at a small geographical resolution pose specific statistical problems due to the sparse nature of the data. Spatial smoothers allow areas to borrow strength from neighboring regions to produce a more stable estimate of the areal value. Geostatistical smoothers are able to quantify the uncertainty in smoothed rate estimates without a high computational burden. In this paper, we introduce a uniform model extension of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (UMBME) and compare its performance to that of Poisson kriging in measures of smoothing strength and estimation accuracy as applied to simulated data and the real data example of HIV infection in North Carolina. The aim is to produce more reliable maps of disease rates in small areas to improve identification of spatial trends at the local level. Results In all data environments, Poisson kriging exhibited greater smoothing strength than UMBME. With the simulated data where the true latent rate of infection was known, Poisson kriging resulted in greater estimation accuracy with data that displayed low spatial autocorrelation, while UMBME provided more accurate estimators with data that displayed higher spatial autocorrelation. With the HIV data, UMBME performed slightly better than Poisson kriging in cross-validatory predictive checks, with both models performing better than the observed data model with no smoothing. Conclusions Smoothing methods have different advantages depending upon both internal model assumptions that affect smoothing strength and external data environments, such as spatial correlation of the observed data. Further model comparisons in different data environments are required to provide public health practitioners with guidelines needed in choosing the most appropriate smoothing method for their particular health dataset. PMID:21978359

Adjusting for sampling variability in sparse data: geostatistical approaches to disease mapping.

PubMed

Hampton, Kristen H; Serre, Marc L; Gesink, Dionne C; Pilcher, Christopher D; Miller, William C

2011-10-06

Disease maps of crude rates from routinely collected health data indexed at a small geographical resolution pose specific statistical problems due to the sparse nature of the data. Spatial smoothers allow areas to borrow strength from neighboring regions to produce a more stable estimate of the areal value. Geostatistical smoothers are able to quantify the uncertainty in smoothed rate estimates without a high computational burden. In this paper, we introduce a uniform model extension of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (UMBME) and compare its performance to that of Poisson kriging in measures of smoothing strength and estimation accuracy as applied to simulated data and the real data example of HIV infection in North Carolina. The aim is to produce more reliable maps of disease rates in small areas to improve identification of spatial trends at the local level. In all data environments, Poisson kriging exhibited greater smoothing strength than UMBME. With the simulated data where the true latent rate of infection was known, Poisson kriging resulted in greater estimation accuracy with data that displayed low spatial autocorrelation, while UMBME provided more accurate estimators with data that displayed higher spatial autocorrelation. With the HIV data, UMBME performed slightly better than Poisson kriging in cross-validatory predictive checks, with both models performing better than the observed data model with no smoothing. Smoothing methods have different advantages depending upon both internal model assumptions that affect smoothing strength and external data environments, such as spatial correlation of the observed data. Further model comparisons in different data environments are required to provide public health practitioners with guidelines needed in choosing the most appropriate smoothing method for their particular health dataset.

Using of Synchrotron radiation for study of multielement composition of the small mammals diet and tissues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezel, V. S.; Koutzenogii, K. P.; Mukhacheva, S. V.; Chankina, O. V.; Savchenko, T. I.

2007-05-01

The Synchrotron radiation X-ray Fluorescence analysis (SRXRF) was used for estimation of "geochemical selection" of elements by small mammals, which belong to different trophic groups and inhabit polluted and background areas (the Middle Ural). The concentrations of K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Br, Rb, Sr, Y, Cd, Pb in the diet and into hepar of a herbivorous ( bank vole) and carnivorous ( Laxmann's shrew) small mammals were compared. Herbivores play a particular role in chemical elements translocation between trophic levels, limiting element transition to consumers of the consequent levels. Whereas, insectivores concentrate most elements in their tissues under the same conditions.

RIVER LEVEL ESTIMATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR URBAN SMALL RIVER IN TIDAL REACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takasaki, Tadakatsu; Kawamura, Akira; Amaguchi, Hideo

Prediction of water level in small rivers is great interest for flood control in an urban area located in the river mouth. The tidal river water level is affected by not only flood discharge but also tide, atmospheric pressure, wind direction and speed. We propose a method of estimating river water level considering these factors using an artificial neural network model for the Kanda River located in the center of Tokyo. The effects by those factors are quantitatively investigated. As for the effects by the atmospheric pressure, river water level rises about 7cm per 5hPa increase of the pressure regardless of river discharge under the conditions of 1m/s wind speed and north wind direction. The accurate rating curve for the tidal river is finally obtained.

Characterization of shallow groundwater quality in the Lower St. Johns River Basin: a case study.

PubMed

Ouyang, Ying; Zhang, Jia-En; Parajuli, Prem

2013-12-01

Characterization of groundwater quality allows the evaluation of groundwater pollution and provides information for better management of groundwater resources. This study characterized the shallow groundwater quality and its spatial and seasonal variations in the Lower St. Johns River Basin, Florida, USA, under agricultural, forest, wastewater, and residential land uses using field measurements and two-dimensional kriging analysis. Comparison of the concentrations of groundwater quality constituents against the US EPA's water quality criteria showed that the maximum nitrate/nitrite (NO x ) and arsenic (As) concentrations exceeded the EPA's drinking water standard limits, while the maximum Cl, SO 4 (2-) , and Mn concentrations exceeded the EPA's national secondary drinking water regulations. In general, high kriging estimated groundwater NH 4 (+) concentrations were found around the agricultural areas, while high kriging estimated groundwater NO x concentrations were observed in the residential areas with a high density of septic tank distribution. Our study further revealed that more areas were found with high estimated NO x concentrations in summer than in spring. This occurred partially because of more NO x leaching into the shallow groundwater due to the wetter summer and partially because of faster nitrification rate due to the higher temperature in summer. Large extent and high kriging estimated total phosphorus concentrations were found in the residential areas. Overall, the groundwater Na and Mg concentration distributions were relatively more even in summer than in spring. Higher kriging estimated groundwater As concentrations were found around the agricultural areas, which exceeded the EPA's drinking water standard limit. Very small variations in groundwater dissolved organic carbon concentrations were observed between spring and summer. This study demonstrated that the concentrations of groundwater quality constituents varied from location to location, and impacts of land uses on groundwater quality variation were profound.

Flat slabs seen from above: aeromagnetic data in Central Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manea, M.; Manea, V. C.

2006-12-01

The aeromagnetic map of Mexico shows a magnetic "quiet zone" in Guerrero and Oaxaca (Central Mexico), characterized by a general lack of short-wavelength magnetic anomalies. In order to investigate the magnetic quiet zone in relation with the thermal sources, spectral analysis has been applied to the aeromagnetic data. The results show the existence of deep magnetic sources (30-40 km) which we consider to be the Currie depth (corresponding to a temperature of 575-600°). Above the Curie temperature spontaneous magnetization vanishes and the minerals exhibit only a small paramagnetic susceptibility. Our estimates of magnetic basal depth are consistent with the heat flow measurements in the area (20-30 mW/m2). In order to explain such deep magnetic source and small heat flow estimates, we infer the thermal structure associated with the subduction of the Cocos plate beneath Central Mexico, using a finite element approach. The modeling results show that the 575-600°C isotherm is subhorisontal due to the flat slab regime in the area. Also, the heat flow estimates from thermal models and spectral analysis of aeromagnetic anomalies are in good agreement. We conclude that the magnetic quiet zone is associated with a flat slab subduction regime in Central Mexico, and proved to be an important constraint for the thermal structure associated with subduction zones.

Quantifying macropore recharge: Examples from a semi-arid area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, W.W.; Rainwater, Ken A.; Thompson, D.B.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the significantly increased resolution of determining macropore recharge by combining physical, chemical, and isotopic methods of analysis. Techniques for quantifying macropore recharge were developed for both small-scale (1 to 10 km2) and regional-scale areas in and semi-arid areas. The Southern High Plains region of Texas and New Mexico was used as a representative field site to test these methods. Macropore recharge in small-scale areas is considered to be the difference between total recharge through floors of topographically dosed basins and interstitial recharge through the same area. On the regional scale, macropore recharge was considered to be the difference between regional average annual recharge and interstitial recharge measured in the unsaturated zone. Stable isotopic composition of ground water and precipitation was used us an independent estimate of macropore recharge on the regional scale. Results of this analysis suggest that in the Southern High Plains recharge flux through macropores is between 60 and 80 percent of the total 11 mm/y. Between 15 and 35 percent of the recharge occurs by interstitial recharge through the basin floors. Approximately 5 percent of the total recharge occurs as either interstitial or matrix recharge between the basin floors, representing approximately 95 percent of the area. The approach is applicable to other arid and semi-arid areas that focus rainfall into depressions or valleys.The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the significantly increased resolution of determining macropore recharge by combining physical, chemical, and isotopic methods of analysis. Techniques for quantifying macropore recharge were developed for both small-scale (1 to 10 km2) and regional-scale areas in arid and semi-arid areas. The Southern High Plains region of Texas and New Mexico was used as a representative field site to test these methods. Macropore recharge in small-scale areas is considered to be the difference between total recharge through floors of topographically closed basins and interstitial recharge through the same area. On the regional scale, macropore recharge was considered to be the difference between regional average annual recharge and interstitial recharge measured in the unsaturated zone. Stable isotopic composition of ground water and precipitation was used as an independent estimate of macropore recharge on the regional scale. Results of this analysis suggest that in the Southern High Plains recharge flux through macropores is between 60 and 80 percent of the total 11 mm/y. Between 15 and 35 percent of the recharge occurs by interstitial recharge through the basin floors. Approximately 5 percent of the total recharge occurs as either interstitial or matrix recharge between the basin floors, representing approximately 95 percent of the area. The approach is applicable to other arid and semi-arid areas that focus rainfall into depressions or valleys.

Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

PubMed

Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

2016-07-01

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

2016-01-01

Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Multiscale sampling of plant diversity: Effects of minimum mapping unit size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Chong, G.W.; Kalkhan, M.A.; Schell, L.D.

1997-01-01

Only a small portion of any landscape can be sampled for vascular plant diversity because of constraints of cost (salaries, travel time between sites, etc.). Often, the investigator decides to reduce the cost of creating a vegetation map by increasing the minimum mapping unit (MMU), and/or by reducing the number of vegetation classes to be considered. Questions arise about what information is sacrificed when map resolution is decreased. We compared plant diversity patterns from vegetation maps made with 100-ha, 50-ha, 2-ha, and 0.02-ha MMUs in a 754-ha study area in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, United States, using four 0.025-ha and 21 0.1-ha multiscale vegetation plots. We developed and tested species-log(area) curves, correcting the curves for within-vegetation type heterogeneity with Jaccard's coefficients. Total species richness in the study area was estimated from vegetation maps at each resolution (MMU), based on the corrected species-area curves, total area of the vegetation type, and species overlap among vegetation types. With the 0.02-ha MMU, six vegetation types were recovered, resulting in an estimated 552 species (95% CI = 520-583 species) in the 754-ha study area (330 plant species were observed in the 25 plots). With the 2-ha MMU, five vegetation types were recognized, resulting in an estimated 473 species for the study area. With the 50-ha MMU, 439 plant species were estimated for the four vegetation types recognized in the study area. With the 100-ha MMU, only three vegetation types were recognized, resulting in an estimated 341 plant species for the study area. Locally rare species and keystone ecosystems (areas of high or unique plant diversity) were missed at the 2-ha, 50-ha, and 100-ha scales. To evaluate the effects of minimum mapping unit size requires: (1) an initial stratification of homogeneous, heterogeneous, and rare habitat types; and (2) an evaluation of within-type and between-type heterogeneity generated by environmental gradients and other factors. We suggest that at least some portions of vegetation maps created at a coarser level of resolution be validated at a higher level of resolution.

Pulmonary hypertension and computed tomography measurement of small pulmonary vessels in severe emphysema.

PubMed

Matsuoka, Shin; Washko, George R; Yamashiro, Tsuneo; Estepar, Raul San Jose; Diaz, Alejandro; Silverman, Edwin K; Hoffman, Eric; Fessler, Henry E; Criner, Gerard J; Marchetti, Nathaniel; Scharf, Steven M; Martinez, Fernando J; Reilly, John J; Hatabu, Hiroto

2010-02-01

Vascular alteration of small pulmonary vessels is one of the characteristic features of pulmonary hypertension in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The in vivo relationship between pulmonary hypertension and morphological alteration of the small pulmonary vessels has not been assessed in patients with severe emphysema. We evaluated the correlation of total cross-sectional area of small pulmonary vessels (CSA) assessed on computed tomography (CT) scans with the degree of pulmonary hypertension estimated by right heart catheterization. In 79 patients with severe emphysema enrolled in the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT), we measured CSA less than 5 mm(2) (CSA(<5)) and 5 to 10 mm(2) (CSA(5-10)), and calculated the percentage of total CSA for the lung area (%CSA(<5) and %CSA(5-10), respectively). The correlations of %CSA(<5) and %CSA(5-10) with pulmonary arterial mean pressure (Ppa) obtained by right heart catheterization were evaluated. Multiple linear regression analysis using Ppa as the dependent outcome was also performed. The %CSA(<5) had a significant negative correlation with Ppa (r = -0.512, P < 0.0001), whereas the correlation between %CSA(5-10) and Ppa did not reach statistical significance (r = -0.196, P = 0.083). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that %CSA(<5) and diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide (DL(CO)) % predicted were independent predictors of Ppa (r(2) = 0.541): %CSA (<5) (P < 0.0001), and DL(CO) % predicted (P = 0.022). The %CSA(<5) measured on CT images is significantly correlated to Ppa in severe emphysema and can estimate the degree of pulmonary hypertension.

Image registration of naval IR images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodland, Arne J.

1996-06-01

In a real world application an image from a stabilized sensor on a moving platform will not be 100 percent stabilized. There will always be a small unknown error in the stabilization due to factors such as dynamic deformations in the structure between sensor and reference Inertial Navigation Unit, servo inaccuracies, etc. For a high resolution imaging sensor this stabilization error causes the image to move several pixels in unknown direction between frames. TO be able to detect and track small moving objects from such a sensor, this unknown movement of the sensor image must be estimated. An algorithm that searches for land contours in the image has been evaluated. The algorithm searches for high contrast points distributed over the whole image. As long as moving objects in the scene only cover a small area of the scene, most of the points are located on solid ground. By matching the list of points from frame to frame, the movement of the image due to stabilization errors can be estimated and compensated. The point list is searched for points with diverging movement from the estimated stabilization error. These points are then assumed to be located on moving objects. Points assumed to be located on moving objects are gradually exchanged with new points located in the same area. Most of the processing is performed on the list of points and not on the complete image. The algorithm is therefore very fast and well suited for real time implementation. The algorithm has been tested on images from an experimental IR scanner. Stabilization errors were added artificially to the image such that the output from the algorithm could be compared with the artificially added stabilization errors.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Tierney, Edward F; Burrows, Nilka R; Barker, Lawrence E; Beckles, Gloria L; Boyle, James P; Cadwell, Betsy L; Kirtland, Karen A; Thompson, Theodore J

2013-06-01

To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%-18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%-18.2%).

Small unmanned aerial vehicles (micro-UAVs, drones) in plant ecology1

PubMed Central

Cruzan, Mitchell B.; Weinstein, Ben G.; Grasty, Monica R.; Kohrn, Brendan F.; Hendrickson, Elizabeth C.; Arredondo, Tina M.; Thompson, Pamela G.

2016-01-01

Premise of the study: Low-elevation surveys with small aerial drones (micro–unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs]) may be used for a wide variety of applications in plant ecology, including mapping vegetation over small- to medium-sized regions. We provide an overview of methods and procedures for conducting surveys and illustrate some of these applications. Methods: Aerial images were obtained by flying a small drone along transects over the area of interest. Images were used to create a composite image (orthomosaic) and a digital surface model (DSM). Vegetation classification was conducted manually and using an automated routine. Coverage of an individual species was estimated from aerial images. Results: We created a vegetation map for the entire region from the orthomosaic and DSM, and mapped the density of one species. Comparison of our manual and automated habitat classification confirmed that our mapping methods were accurate. A species with high contrast to the background matrix allowed adequate estimate of its coverage. Discussion: The example surveys demonstrate that small aerial drones are capable of gathering large amounts of information on the distribution of vegetation and individual species with minimal impact to sensitive habitats. Low-elevation aerial surveys have potential for a wide range of applications in plant ecology. PMID:27672518

Comparison of estimation methods for creating small area rates of acute myocardial infarction among Medicare beneficiaries in California.

PubMed

Yasaitis, Laura C; Arcaya, Mariana C; Subramanian, S V

2015-09-01

Creating local population health measures from administrative data would be useful for health policy and public health monitoring purposes. While a wide range of options--from simple spatial smoothers to model-based methods--for estimating such rates exists, there are relatively few side-by-side comparisons, especially not with real-world data. In this paper, we compare methods for creating local estimates of acute myocardial infarction rates from Medicare claims data. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain estimator that incorporated spatial and local random effects performed best, followed by a method-of-moments spatial Empirical Bayes estimator. As the former is more complicated and time-consuming, spatial linear Empirical Bayes methods may represent a good alternative for non-specialist investigators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational method for estimating boundary of abdominal subcutaneous fat for absolute electrical impedance tomography.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Tohru F; Okamoto, Yoshiwo

2018-01-01

Abdominal fat accumulation is considered an essential indicator of human health. Electrical impedance tomography has considerable potential for abdominal fat imaging because of the low specific conductivity of human body fat. In this paper, we propose a robust reconstruction method for high-fidelity conductivity imaging by abstraction of the abdominal cross section using a relatively small number of parameters. Toward this end, we assume homogeneous conductivity in the abdominal subcutaneous fat area and characterize its geometrical shape by parameters defined as the ratio of the distance from the center to boundary of subcutaneous fat to the distance from the center to outer boundary in 64 equiangular directions. To estimate the shape parameters, the sensitivity of the noninvasively measured voltages with respect to the shape parameters is formulated for numerical optimization. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. A 3-dimensional finite element method is used to construct a computer model of the human abdomen. The inverse problems of shape parameters and conductivities are solved concurrently by iterative forward and inverse calculations. As a result, conductivity images are reconstructed with a small systemic error of less than 1% for the estimation of the subcutaneous fat area. A novel method is devised for estimating the boundary of the abdominal subcutaneous fat. The fidelity of the overall reconstructed image to the reference image is significantly improved. The results demonstrate the possibility of realization of an abdominal fat scanner as a low-cost, radiation-free medical device. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Undiagnosed cryptic diversity in small, microendemic frogs (Leptolalax) from the Central Highlands of Vietnam.

PubMed

Rowley, Jodi J L; Tran, Dao T A; Frankham, Greta J; Dekker, Anthony H; Le, Duong T T; Nguyen, Truong Q; Dau, Vinh Q; Hoang, Huy D

2015-01-01

A major obstacle in prioritizing species or habitats for conservation is the degree of unrecognized diversity hidden within complexes of morphologically similar, "cryptic" species. Given that amphibians are one of the most threatened groups of organisms on the planet, our inability to diagnose their true diversity is likely to have significant conservation consequences. This is particularly true in areas undergoing rapid deforestation, such as Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian genus Leptolalax is a group of small-bodied, morphologically conserved frogs that inhabit the forest-floor. We examined a particularly small-bodied and morphologically conserved subset, the Leptolalax applebyi group, using a combination of molecular, morphometric, and acoustic data to identify previously unknown diversity within. In order to predict the geographic distribution of the group, estimate the effects of habitat loss and assess the degree of habitat protection, we used our locality data to perform ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt. Molecular (mtDNA and nuDNA), acoustic and subtle morphometric differences revealed a significant underestimation of diversity in the L. applebyi group; at least two-thirds of the diversity may be unrecognised. Patterns of diversification and microendemism in the group appear driven by limited dispersal, likely due to their small body size, with several lineages restricted to watershed basins. The L. applebyi group is predicted to have historically occurred over a large area of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, a considerable portion of which has already been deforested. Less than a quarter of the remaining forest predicted to be suitable for the group falls within current protected areas. The predicted distribution of the L. applebyi group extends into unsurveyed watershed basins, each potentially containing unsampled diversity, some of which may have already been lost due to deforestation. Current estimates of amphibian diversity based on morphology alone are misleading, and accurate alpha taxonomy is essential to accurately prioritize conservation efforts.

Undiagnosed Cryptic Diversity in Small, Microendemic Frogs (Leptolalax) from the Central Highlands of Vietnam

PubMed Central

Rowley, Jodi J. L.; Tran, Dao T. A.; Frankham, Greta J.; Dekker, Anthony H.; Le, Duong T. T.; Nguyen, Truong Q.; Dau, Vinh Q.; Hoang, Huy D.

2015-01-01

A major obstacle in prioritizing species or habitats for conservation is the degree of unrecognized diversity hidden within complexes of morphologically similar, “cryptic” species. Given that amphibians are one of the most threatened groups of organisms on the planet, our inability to diagnose their true diversity is likely to have significant conservation consequences. This is particularly true in areas undergoing rapid deforestation, such as Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian genus Leptolalax is a group of small-bodied, morphologically conserved frogs that inhabit the forest-floor. We examined a particularly small-bodied and morphologically conserved subset, the Leptolalax applebyi group, using a combination of molecular, morphometric, and acoustic data to identify previously unknown diversity within. In order to predict the geographic distribution of the group, estimate the effects of habitat loss and assess the degree of habitat protection, we used our locality data to perform ecological niche modelling using MaxEnt. Molecular (mtDNA and nuDNA), acoustic and subtle morphometric differences revealed a significant underestimation of diversity in the L. applebyi group; at least two-thirds of the diversity may be unrecognised. Patterns of diversification and microendemism in the group appear driven by limited dispersal, likely due to their small body size, with several lineages restricted to watershed basins. The L. applebyi group is predicted to have historically occurred over a large area of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, a considerable portion of which has already been deforested. Less than a quarter of the remaining forest predicted to be suitable for the group falls within current protected areas. The predicted distribution of the L. applebyi group extends into unsurveyed watershed basins, each potentially containing unsampled diversity, some of which may have already been lost due to deforestation. Current estimates of amphibian diversity based on morphology alone are misleading, and accurate alpha taxonomy is essential to accurately prioritize conservation efforts. PMID:26020250

A seismic coherency method using spectral amplitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sui, Jing-Kun; Zheng, Xiao-Dong; Li, Yan-Dong

2015-09-01

Seismic coherence is used to detect discontinuities in underground media. However, strata with steeply dipping structures often produce false low coherence estimates and thus incorrect discontinuity characterization results. It is important to eliminate or reduce the effect of dipping on coherence estimates. To solve this problem, time-domain dip scanning is typically used to improve estimation of coherence in areas with steeply dipping structures. However, the accuracy of the time-domain estimation of dip is limited by the sampling interval. In contrast, the spectrum amplitude is not affected by the time delays in adjacent seismic traces caused by dipping structures. We propose a coherency algorithm that uses the spectral amplitudes of seismic traces within a predefined analysis window to construct the covariance matrix. The coherency estimates with the proposed algorithm is defined as the ratio between the dominant eigenvalue and the sum of all eigenvalues of the constructed covariance matrix. Thus, we eliminate the effect of dipping structures on coherency estimates. In addition, because different frequency bands of spectral amplitudes are used to estimate coherency, the proposed algorithm has multiscale features. Low frequencies are effective for characterizing large-scale faults, whereas high frequencies are better in characterizing small-scale faults. Application to synthetic and real seismic data show that the proposed algorithm can eliminate the effect of dip and produce better coherence estimates than conventional coherency algorithms in areas with steeply dipping structures.

Developing small-area predictions for smoking and obesity prevalence in the United States for use in Environmental Public Health Tracking.

PubMed

Ortega Hinojosa, Alberto M; Davies, Molly M; Jarjour, Sarah; Burnett, Richard T; Mann, Jennifer K; Hughes, Edward; Balmes, John R; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael

2014-10-01

Globally and in the United States, smoking and obesity are leading causes of death and disability. Reliable estimates of prevalence for these risk factors are often missing variables in public health surveillance programs. This may limit the capacity of public health surveillance to target interventions or to assess associations between other environmental risk factors (e.g., air pollution) and health because smoking and obesity are often important confounders. To generate prevalence estimates of smoking and obesity rates over small areas for the United States (i.e., at the ZIP code and census tract levels). We predicted smoking and obesity prevalence using a combined approach first using a lasso-based variable selection procedure followed by a two-level random effects regression with a Poisson link clustered on state and county. We used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1991 to 2010 to estimate the model. We used 10-fold cross-validated mean squared errors and the variance of the residuals to test our model. To downscale the estimates we combined the prediction equations with 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data for each of the four five-year time periods in this time range at the ZIP code and census tract levels. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted using models that included only basic terms, that accounted for spatial autocorrelation, and used Generalized Linear Models that did not include random effects. The two-level random effects model produced improved estimates compared to the fixed effects-only models. Estimates were particularly improved for the two-thirds of the conterminous U.S. where BRFSS data were available to estimate the county level random effects. We downscaled the smoking and obesity rate predictions to derive ZIP code and census tract estimates. To our knowledge these smoking and obesity predictions are the first to be developed for the entire conterminous U.S. for census tracts and ZIP codes. Our estimates could have significant utility for public health surveillance. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Microhabitat Conditions in Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Core Areas: Effects on Nest Site Selection and Success

PubMed Central

Beck, Jeffrey L.; Kirol, Christopher P.; Pratt, Aaron C.; Conover, Michael R.

2016-01-01

The purpose of our study was to identify microhabitat characteristics of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest site selection and survival to determine the quality of sage-grouse habitat in 5 regions of central and southwest Wyoming associated with Wyoming’s Core Area Policy. Wyoming’s Core Area Policy was enacted in 2008 to reduce human disturbance near the greatest densities of sage-grouse. Our analyses aimed to assess sage-grouse nest selection and success at multiple micro-spatial scales. We obtained microhabitat data from 928 sage-grouse nest locations and 819 random microhabitat locations from 2008–2014. Nest success was estimated from 924 nests with survival data. Sage-grouse selected nests with greater sagebrush cover and height, visual obstruction, and number of small gaps between shrubs (gap size ≥0.5 m and <1.0 m), while selecting for less bare ground and rock. With the exception of more small gaps between shrubs, we did not find any differences in availability of these microhabitat characteristics between locations within and outside of Core Areas. In addition, we found little supporting evidence that sage-grouse were selecting different nest sites in Core Areas relative to areas outside of Core. The Kaplan-Meier nest success estimate for a 27-day incubation period was 42.0% (95% CI: 38.4–45.9%). Risk of nest failure was negatively associated with greater rock and more medium-sized gaps between shrubs (gap size ≥2.0 m and <3.0 m). Within our study areas, Wyoming’s Core Areas did not have differing microhabitat quality compared to outside of Core Areas. The close proximity of our locations within and outside of Core Areas likely explained our lack of finding differences in microhabitat quality among locations within these landscapes. However, the Core Area Policy is most likely to conserve high quality habitat at larger spatial scales, which over decades may have cascading effects on microhabitat quality available between areas within and outside of Core Areas. PMID:27002531

Population ecology of the mallard VIII: Winter distribution patterns and survival rates of winter-banded mallards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.

1987-01-01

In the present report we address questions about winter distribution patterns and survival rates of North American mallards Anas platyrhynchos. Inferences are based on analyses of banding and recovery data from both winter and preseason banding period. The primary wintering range of the mallard was dividded into 45 minor reference areas and 15 major reference areas which were used to summarize winter banding data. Descriptive tables and figures on the recovery distributions of winter-banded mallards are presented. Using winter recoveries of preseason-banded mallards, we found apparent differences between recovery distribution of young versus adult birds from the same breeding ground reference areas. However, we found no sex-specific differences in winter recovery distribution patterns. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded birds also provided evidence that mallards exhibited some degree of year-to-year variation in wintering ground location. The age- and sex-specificity of such variation was tested using winter recoveries of winter-banded birds, and results indicated that subadult (first year) birds were less likely to return to the same wintering grounds the following year than adults. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded mallards during 1950-58 differed from distributions in 1966-76. These differences could have resulted from either true distributional shifts or geographic changes in hunting pressure. Survival and recovery rates were estimated from winter banding data. We found no evidence of differences in survival or recovery rates between subadult and adult mallards. Thus, the substantial difference between survival rates of preseason-banded young and adult mallards must result almost entirely from higher mortality of young birds during the approximate period, August-January. Male mallards showed higher survival than females, corroborating inferences based on preseason data. Tests with winter banding and band recovery data indicated some degree of year-to-year variation in both survival and recovery rates, a result again consistent with inference from preseason data. Some evidence indication geographic variation in survival rates; however, there were no consistent directional differences between survival rates of mallards from adjacent northern versus southern areas, or eastern versus western areas. In some comparisons, Central Flyway mallards exhibited slightly higher survival rates than mallards from other flyways. Weighted mean estimates of continental survival rates were computed for the period 1960-77 from both winter banding data and preseason banding of adults. Resulting estimates differed significantly for males, but not for females, and the magnitude of the difference between point estimates was relatively small, even for males. The direction of the difference between these estimates was predicted correctly from previous work on the effects of heterogeneous survival an d recovery rates on band recovery model estimates. The similarity of survival estimates from these two independent data sets supports the believe that biases in these estimates are relatively small.

Soil erosion assessment using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in a GIS framework: A case study of Zacatecas, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betanzos Arroyo, L. I.; Prol Ledesma, R. M.; da Silva Pinto da Rocha, F. J. P.

2014-12-01

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), which is considered to be a contemporary approach in soil loss assessment, was used to assess soil erosion hazard in the Zacatecas mining district. The purpose of this study is to produce erosion susceptibility maps for an area that is polluted with mining tailings which are susceptible to erosion and can disperse the particles that contain heavy metals and other toxic elements. USLE method is based in the estimation of soil loss per unit area and takes into account specific parameters such as precipitation data, topography, soil erodibility, erosivity and runoff. The R-factor (rainfall erosivity) was calculated from monthly and annual precipitation data. The K-factor (soil erodibility) was estimated using soil maps available from the CONABIO at a scale of 1:250000. The LS-factor (slope length and steepness) was determined from a 30-m digital elevation model. A raster-based Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to interactively calculate soil loss and map erosion hazard. The results show that estimated erosion rates ranged from 0 to 4770.48 t/ha year. Maximum proportion of the total area of the Zacatecas mining district have nil to very extremely slight erosion severity. Small areas in the central and south part of the study area shows the critical condition requiring sustainable land management.

Estimating the potential biodiversity impact of redeveloping small urban spaces: the Natural History Museum’s grounds

PubMed Central

Knapp, Sandra; Purvis, Andy

2017-01-01

Background With the increase in human population, and the growing realisation of the importance of urban biodiversity for human wellbeing, the ability to predict biodiversity loss or gain as a result of land use change within urban settings is important. Most models that link biodiversity and land use are at too coarse a scale for informing decisions, especially those related to planning applications. Using the grounds of the Natural History Museum, London, we show how methods used in global models can be applied to smaller spatial scales to inform urban planning. Methods Data were extracted from relevant primary literature where species richness had been recorded in more than one habitat type within an urban setting. As within-sample species richness will increase with habitat area, species richness estimates were also converted to species density using theory based on the species–area relationship. Mixed-effects models were used to model the impact on species richness and species density of different habitat types, and to estimate these metrics in the current grounds and under proposed plans for redevelopment. We compared effects of three assumptions on how within-sample diversity scales with habitat area as a sensitivity analysis. A pre-existing database recording plants within the grounds was also used to estimate changes in species composition across different habitats. Results Analysis estimated that the proposed plans would result in an increase of average biodiversity of between 11.2% (when species density was modelled) and 14.1% (when within-sample species richness was modelled). Plant community composition was relatively similar between the habitats currently within the grounds. Discussion The proposed plans for change in the NHM grounds are estimated to result in a net gain in average biodiversity, through increased number and extent of high-diversity habitats. In future, our method could be improved by incorporating purposefully collected ecological survey data (if resources permit) and by expanding the data sufficiently to allow modelling of the temporal dynamics of biodiversity change after habitat disturbance and creation. Even in its current form, the method produces transparent quantitative estimates, grounded in ecological data and theory, which can be used to inform relatively small scale planning decisions. PMID:29104821

Impact of trash burning on air quality in Mexico City.

PubMed

Hodzic, A; Wiedinmyer, C; Salcedo, D; Jimenez, J L

2012-05-01

Air pollution experienced by expanding urban areas is responsible for serious health effects and death for millions of people every year. Trash burning is a common disposal method in poor areas, yet it is uncontrolled in many countries, and its contribution to air pollution is unclear due to uncertainties in its emissions. Here we develop a new trash burning emission inventory for Mexico City based on inverse socioeconomic levels and recently measured emission factors, and apply a chemistry-transport model to analyze the effects on pollutant concentrations. Trash burning is estimated to emit 25 tons of primary organic aerosols (POA) per day, which is comparable to fossil fuel POA emissions in Mexico City, and causes an increase in average organic aerosol concentrations of ∼0.3 μg m(-3) downtown and up to 2 μg m(-3) in highly populated suburbs near the sources of emission. An evaluation using submicrometer antimony suggests that our emission estimates are reasonable. Mitigation of trash burning could reduce the levels of organic aerosols by 2-40% and those of PM(2.5) by 1-15% over the metropolitan area. The trash burning contributions to carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds were found to be very small (<3%), and consequently the contributions to secondary nitrate, sulfate, and secondary organic aerosols are also very small. © 2012 American Chemical Society

Small-town migration to metropolitan centres: a case in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Lee Boon Thong

1979-12-01

In Malaysia small towns are an important source of population gowth in metropolitan areas. To provide empirical evidence of the magnitude and roles of small urban centers as complementary sources of population growth in metropolitan areas, a small survey was conducted in 10 small towns in the State of Selangor. Criteria for the selection of these towns include a fair geographical spread over the State, and each area must characteristically possess a dominant urban center. The questionnaires were directed to the heads of 300 households with the intention of investigating the socioeconomic background of the households and the magnitude and characteristics of those members of the households who have migrated elsewhere. The total number of outmigrants from each area varied from 27-57, giving an overall average figure of 1.53 outmigrants/household. About 77% of the outmigrants had moved to the metropolitan centers. As the majority of the metropolitan migrants were more attracted to Kuala Lumpur, Klang, and Petaling Jaya, it may be assumed that the total outmigrants from small towns as derived would have consitituted about 39% of the population in the Klang Valley region. Based on this estimate, the role of small towns in metropolitan population growth is important. In the survey conducted, 2 broad categories of movements were involved: "economic movers," i.e., those who migrated to work or to establish businesses in the metropolitan areas; and "noneconomic movers," i.e., those who moved to continue their studies or to follow their spouses, and so forth. The economic mover stream made up 71% of the total metropolitan migrants. 2 variables--marital status and sex--were significantly related to the economic or noneconomic nature of the metropolitan migrants. The movement of males tended to be associated with economic motives whereas noneconomic reasons for movement tended to be the case among females migrants. The most important occupational group of the economically active migrants to the metropolitan areas was the production workers, comprising mostly laborers, building construction workers, and factory operators. 2 other important groups were sales workers and service workers. Rather than concentrating total emphasis on large urban centers, authorities should divert a portion of their developmental efforts to small towns as part of overall comprehensive urban planning. Economic revitalization of the small towns can take many forms, such as encouraging craft industries, investing labor intensive industries, or offering incentives to industries. Small towns should be given a unifying role within the city rural framework.

Stream Flow Prediction by Remote Sensing and Genetic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Ni-Bin

2009-01-01

A genetic programming (GP)-based, nonlinear modeling structure relates soil moisture with synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) images to present representative soil moisture estimates at the watershed scale. Surface soil moisture measurement is difficult to obtain over a large area due to a variety of soil permeability values and soil textures. Point measurements can be used on a small-scale area, but it is impossible to acquire such information effectively in large-scale watersheds. This model exhibits the capacity to assimilate SAR images and relevant geoenvironmental parameters to measure soil moisture.

Variable Selection Strategies for Small-area Estimation Using FIA Plots and Remotely Sensed Data

Treesearch

Andrew Lister; Rachel Riemann; James Westfall; Mike Hoppus

2005-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit maintains a network of tens of thousands of georeferenced forest inventory plots distributed across the United States. Data collected on these plots include direct measurements of tree diameter and height and other variables. We present a technique by which FIA plot data and coregistered...

Necessary but Not Sufficient? Youth Responses to Localised Returns to Education in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biddle, Nicholas

2013-01-01

In this paper, the 2001 Australian Census is used to estimate predicted net benefits of education at a small geographic level. These are then linked to youth in the areas to test the associations with high school participation. This is done separately for Indigenous youth, a population sub-group with historically low levels of education…

Estimates of Potential Increases in Airport Capacity through ATC (Air Traffic Control) System Improvements in the Airport and Terminal Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-01

departures); and (3) departures-only. A fleet mix typical of most majur airports was selected consisting of 15 percent small aircraft (e.g., Swearingen SW-4...schedules predicated on VFR operations can result in substantial delays when weather conditions force the use of IFR operations. 5.1 Difference Between

The relationship between purely stochastic sampling error and the number of technical replicates used to estimate concentration at an extreme dilution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For any analytical system the population mean (mu) number of entities (e.g., cells or molecules) per tested volume, surface area, or mass also defines the population standard deviation (sigma = square root of mu ). For a preponderance of analytical methods, sigma is very small relative to mu due to...

Estimating watershed level nonagricultural pesticide use from golf courses using geospatial methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fox, G.A.; Thelin, G.P.; Sabbagh, G.J.; Fuchs, J.W.; Kelly, I.D.

2008-01-01

Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf-grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface-water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land-cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land-cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined with label rates, resulted in greater than two orders of magnitude over-estimation of the pesticide use compared to estimates from sales data. ?? 2008 American Water Resources Association.

Marginal Economic Value of Streamflow: A Case Study for the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Thomas C.; Harding, Benjamin L.; Payton, Elizabeth A.

1990-12-01

The marginal economic value of streamflow leaving forested areas in the Colorado River Basin was estimated by determining the impact on water use of a small change in streamflow and then applying economic value estimates to the water use changes. The effect on water use of a change in streamflow was estimated with a network flow model that simulated salinity levels and the routing of flow to consumptive uses and hydroelectric dams throughout the Basin. The results show that, under current water management institutions, the marginal value of streamflow in the Colorado River Basin is largely determined by nonconsumptive water uses, principally energy production, rather than by consumptive agricultural or municipal uses. The analysis demonstrates the importance of a systems framework in estimating the marginal value of streamflow.

Identifying key demographic parameters of a small island-associated population of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Reunion, Indian Ocean).

PubMed

Dulau, Violaine; Estrade, Vanessa; Fayan, Jacques

2017-01-01

Photo-identification surveys of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins were conducted from 2009 to 2014 off Reunion Island (55°E33'/21°S07'), in the Indian Ocean. Robust Design models were applied to produce the most reliable estimate of population abundance and survival rate, while accounting for temporary emigration from the survey area (west coast). The sampling scheme consisted of a five-month (June-October) sampling period in each year of the study. The overall population size at Reunion was estimated to be 72 individuals (SE = 6.17, 95%CI = 61-85), based on a random temporary emigration (γ") of 0.096 and a proportion of 0.70 (SE = 0.03) distinct individuals. The annual survival rate was 0.93 (±0.018 SE, 95%CI = 0.886-0.958) and was constant over time and between sexes. Models considering gender groups indicated different movement patterns between males and females. Males showed null or quasi-null temporary emigration (γ" = γ' < 0.01), while females showed a random temporary emigration (γ") of 0.10, suggesting that a small proportion of females was outside the survey area during each primary sampling period. Sex-specific temporary migration patterns were consistent with movement and residency patterns observed in other areas. The Robust Design approach provided an appropriate sampling scheme for deriving island-associated population parameters, while allowing to restrict survey effort both spatially (i.e. west coast only) and temporally (five months per year). Although abundance and survival were stable over the six years, the small population size of fewer than 100 individuals suggested that this population is highly vulnerable. Priority should be given to reducing any potential impact of human activity on the population and its habitat.

Study on paddy rice yield estimation based on multisource data and the Grey system theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Wensheng; Wang, Wei; Liu, Hai; Li, Chen; Ge, Yimin; Zheng, Xianghua

2009-10-01

The paddy rice is our important crops. In study of the paddy rice yield estimation, compared with the scholars who usually only take the remote sensing data or meteorology as the influence factors, we combine the remote sensing and the meteorological data to make the monitoring result closer reality. Although the gray system theory has used in many aspects, it is applied very little in paddy rice yield estimation. This study introduces it to the paddy rice yield estimation, and makes the yield estimation model. This can resolve small data sets problem that can not be solved by deterministic model. It selects some regions in Jianghan plain for the study area. The data includes multi-temporal remote sensing image, meteorological and statistic data. The remote sensing data is the 16-day composite images (250-m spatial resolution) of MODIS. The meteorological data includes monthly average temperature, sunshine duration and rain fall amount. The statistical data is the long-term paddy rice yield of the study area. Firstly, it extracts the paddy rice planting area from the multi-temporal MODIS images with the help of GIS and RS. Then taking the paddy rice yield as the reference sequence, MODIS data and meteorological data as the comparative sequence, computing the gray correlative coefficient, it selects the yield estimation factor based on the grey system theory. Finally, using the factors, it establishes the yield estimation model and does the result test. The result indicated that the method is feasible and the conclusion is credible. It can provide the scientific method and reference value to carry on the region paddy rice remote sensing estimation.

Nutrients discharged to the Mississippi River from eastern Iowa watersheds, 1996-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becher, Kent D.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.; Akers, Kimberlee K.

2000-01-01

The introduction of nutrients from chemical fertilizer, animal manure, wastewater, and atmospheric deposition to the eastern Iowa environment creates a large potential for nutrient transport in watersheds. Agriculture constitutes 93 percent of all land use in eastern Iowa. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program, water samples were collected (typically monthly) from six small and six large watersheds in eastern Iowa between March 1996 and September 1997. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to determine land use and quantify inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus within the study area. Streamliow from the watersheds is to the Mississippi River. Chemical fertilizer and animal manure account for 92 percent of the estimated total nitrogen and 99.9 percent of the estimated total phosphorus input in the study area. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads for 1996 were estimated for nine of the 12 rivers and creeks using a minimum variance unbiased estimator model. A seasonal pattern of concentrations and loads was observed. The greatest concentrations and loads occur in the late spring to early summer in conjunction with row-crop fertilizer applications and spring nmoff and again in the late fall to early winter as vegetation goes into dormancy and additional fertilizer is applied to row-crop fields. The three largest rivers in eastern Iowa transported an estimated total of 79,000 metric tons of total nitrogen and 6,800 metric tons of total phosphorus to the Mississippi River in 1996. The estimated mass of total nitrogen and total phosphorus transported to the Mississippi River represents about 19 percent of all estimated nitrogen and 9 percent of all estimated phosphorus input to the study area.

Density and Biomass Estimates by Removal for an Amazonian Crocodilian, Paleosuchus palpebrosus.

PubMed

Campos, Zilca; Magnusson, William E

2016-01-01

Direct counts of crocodilians are rarely feasible and it is difficult to meet the assumptions of mark-recapture methods for most species in most habitats. Catch-out experiments are also usually not logistically or morally justifiable because it would be necessary to destroy the habitat in order to be confident that most individuals had been captured. We took advantage of the draining and filling of a large area of flooded forest during the building of the Santo Antônio dam on the Madeira River to obtain accurate estimates of the density and biomass of Paleosuchus palpebrosus. The density, 28.4 non-hatchling individuals per km2, is one of the highest reported for any crocodilian, except for species that are temporarily concentrated in small areas during dry-season drought. The biomass estimate of 63.15 kg*km-2 is higher than that for most or even all mammalian carnivores in tropical forest. P. palpebrosus may be one of the World´s most abundant crocodilians.

Surface Runoff Estimation Using SMOS Observations, Rain-gauge Measurements and Satellite Precipitation Estimations. Comparison with Model Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy

Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.

The evolution of the complex sensory and motor systems of the human brain

PubMed Central

Kaas, Jon H.

2008-01-01

Inferences about how the complex sensory and motor systems of the human brain evolved are based on the results of comparative studies of brain organization across a range of mammalian species, and evidence from the endocasts of fossil skulls of key extinct species. The endocasts of the skulls of early mammals indicate that they had small brains with little neocortex. Evidence from comparative studies of cortical organization from small-brained mammals of the six major branches of mammalian evolution supports the conclusion that the small neocortex of early mammals was divided into roughly 20–25 cortical areas, including primary and secondary sensory fields. In early primates, vision was the dominant sense, and cortical areas associated with vision in temporal and occipital cortex underwent a significant expansion. Comparative studies indicate that early primates had 10 or more visual areas, and somatosensory areas with expanded representations of the forepaw. Posterior parietal cortex was also expanded, with a caudal half dominated by visual inputs, and a rostral half dominated by somatosensory inputs with outputs to an array of seven or more motor and visuomotor areas of the frontal lobe. Somatosensory areas and posterior parietal cortex became further differentiated in early anthropoid primates. As larger brains evolved in early apes and in our hominin ancestors, the number of cortical areas increased to reach an estimated 200 or so in present day humans, and hemispheric specializations emerged. The large human brain grew primarily by increasing neuron number rather than increasing average neuron size. PMID:18331903

Abundance and Survival of Pacific Humpback Whales in a Proposed Critical Habitat Area

PubMed Central

Ashe, Erin; Wray, Janie; Picard, Christopher R.; Williams, Rob

2013-01-01

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were hunted commercially in Canada's Pacific region until 1966. Depleted to an estimated 1,400 individuals throughout the North Pacific, humpback whales are listed as Threatened under Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA) and Endangered under the US Endangered Species Act. We conducted an 8-year photo-identification study to monitor humpback whale usage of a coastal fjord system in British Columbia (BC), Canada that was recently proposed as candidate critical habitat for the species under SARA. This participatory research program built collaborations among First Nations, environmental non-governmental organizations and academics. The study site, including the territorial waters of Gitga'at First Nation, is an important summertime feeding destination for migratory humpback whales, but is small relative to the population's range. We estimated abundance and survivorship using mark-recapture methods using photographs of naturally marked individuals. Abundance of humpback whales in the region was large, relative to the site's size, and generally increased throughout the study period. The resulting estimate of adult survivorship (0.979, 95% CI: 0.914, 0.995) is at the high end of previously reported estimates. A high rate of resights provides new evidence for inter-annual site fidelity to these local waters. Habitat characteristics of our study area are considered ecologically significant and unique, and this should be considered as regulatory agencies consider proposals for high-volume crude oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the area. Monitoring population recovery of a highly mobile, migratory species is daunting for low-cost, community-led science. Focusing on a small, important subset of the animals' range can make this challenge more tractable. Given low statistical power and high variability, our community is considering simpler ecological indicators of population health, such as the number of individuals harmed or killed each year by human activities, including ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. PMID:24058666

Abundance and survival of Pacific humpback whales in a proposed critical habitat area.

PubMed

Ashe, Erin; Wray, Janie; Picard, Christopher R; Williams, Rob

2013-01-01

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were hunted commercially in Canada's Pacific region until 1966. Depleted to an estimated 1,400 individuals throughout the North Pacific, humpback whales are listed as Threatened under Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA) and Endangered under the US Endangered Species Act. We conducted an 8-year photo-identification study to monitor humpback whale usage of a coastal fjord system in British Columbia (BC), Canada that was recently proposed as candidate critical habitat for the species under SARA. This participatory research program built collaborations among First Nations, environmental non-governmental organizations and academics. The study site, including the territorial waters of Gitga'at First Nation, is an important summertime feeding destination for migratory humpback whales, but is small relative to the population's range. We estimated abundance and survivorship using mark-recapture methods using photographs of naturally marked individuals. Abundance of humpback whales in the region was large, relative to the site's size, and generally increased throughout the study period. The resulting estimate of adult survivorship (0.979, 95% CI: 0.914, 0.995) is at the high end of previously reported estimates. A high rate of resights provides new evidence for inter-annual site fidelity to these local waters. Habitat characteristics of our study area are considered ecologically significant and unique, and this should be considered as regulatory agencies consider proposals for high-volume crude oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the area. Monitoring population recovery of a highly mobile, migratory species is daunting for low-cost, community-led science. Focusing on a small, important subset of the animals' range can make this challenge more tractable. Given low statistical power and high variability, our community is considering simpler ecological indicators of population health, such as the number of individuals harmed or killed each year by human activities, including ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear.

Mapping the Spread of Methamphetamine Abuse in California From 1995 to 2008

PubMed Central

Ponicki, William R.; Remer, Lillian G.; Waller, Lance A.; Zhu, Li; Gorman, Dennis M.

2013-01-01

Objectives. From 1983 to 2008, the incidence of methamphetamine abuse and dependence (MA) presenting at hospitals in California increased 13-fold. We assessed whether this growth could be characterized as a drug epidemic. Methods. We geocoded MA discharges to residential zip codes from 1995 through 2008. We related discharges to population and environmental characteristics using Bayesian Poisson conditional autoregressive models, correcting for small area effects and spatial misalignment and enabling an assessment of contagion between areas. Results. MA incidence increased exponentially in 3 phases interrupted by implementation of laws limiting access to methamphetamine precursors. MA growth from 1999 through 2008 was 17% per year. MA was greatest in areas with larger White or Hispanic low-income populations, small household sizes, and good connections to highway systems. Spatial misalignment was a source of bias in estimated effects. Spatial autocorrelation was substantial, accounting for approximately 80% of error variance in the model. Conclusions. From 1995 through 2008, MA exhibited signs of growth and spatial spread characteristic of drug epidemics, spreading most rapidly through low-income White and Hispanic populations living outside dense urban areas. PMID:23078474

Common Faults and Their Prioritization in Small Commercial Buildings: February 2017 - December 2017

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frank, Stephen M; Kim, Janghyun; Cai, Jie

To support an ongoing project at NREL titled 'An Open, Cloud-Based Platform for Whole-Building Fault Detection and Diagnostics' (work breakdown structure number 3.2.6.18 funded by the Department of Energy Building Technologies Office), this report documents faults that are commonly found in small commercial buildings (with a floor area of 10,000 ft2 or less) based on a literature review and discussions with building commissioning experts. It also provides a list of prioritized faults based on an estimation of the prevalence, energy impact, and financial impact of each fault.

Preliminary technical results review of FY81 experiments. Volume 1: Fiscal year 1981/82 spring small grains pilot experiment. [Canada and the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Technical progress made in the foreign commodity production forecasting for the advancement of spring small grains (SSG) area estimation is reported with emphasis on results achieved since the last AgRISTARS level semiannual review. Major objectives and accomplishments are reviewed and the experiment is described. The technical approach data assessment, and data systems used are considered. Results of the group approach comparison study are presented along with preliminary aggregation results for SSG processing procedures. The outlook for the future is assessed.

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez, M.A.; Woodham, W.M.

1983-01-01

Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. West Coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection

PubMed Central

Calambokidis, John; Jahncke, Jaime

2017-01-01

Mortality from collisions with vessels is one of the main human causes of death for large whales. Ship strikes are rarely witnessed and the distribution of strike risk and estimates of mortality remain uncertain at best. We estimated ship strike mortality for blue humpback and fin whales in U.S. West Coast waters using a novel application of a naval encounter model. Mortality estimates from the model were far higher than current minimum estimates derived from stranding records and are closer to extrapolations adjusted for detection probabilities of dead whales. Our most conservative model estimated mortality to be 7.8x, 2.0x and 2.7x the U.S. recommended limit for blue, humpback and fin whales, respectively, suggesting that death from vessel collisions may be a significant impediment to population growth and recovery. Comparing across the study area, the majority of strike mortality occurs in waters off California, from Bodega Bay south and tends to be concentrated in a band approximately 24 Nm (44.5 km) offshore and in designated shipping lanes leading to and from major ports. While some mortality risk exists across nearly all West Coast waters, 74%, 82% and 65% of blue, humpback and fin whale mortality, respectively, occurs in just 10% of the study area, suggesting conservation efforts can be very effective if focused in these waters. Risk is highest in the shipping lanes off San Francisco and Long Beach, but only a fraction of total estimated mortality occurs in these proportionally small areas, making any conservation efforts exclusively within these areas insufficient to address overall strike mortality. We recommend combining shipping lane modifications and re-locations, ship speed reductions and creation of ‘Areas to be Avoided’ by vessels in ecologically important locations to address this significant source of whale mortality. PMID:28827838

High mortality of blue, humpback and fin whales from modeling of vessel collisions on the U.S. West Coast suggests population impacts and insufficient protection.

PubMed

Rockwood, R Cotton; Calambokidis, John; Jahncke, Jaime

2017-01-01

Mortality from collisions with vessels is one of the main human causes of death for large whales. Ship strikes are rarely witnessed and the distribution of strike risk and estimates of mortality remain uncertain at best. We estimated ship strike mortality for blue humpback and fin whales in U.S. West Coast waters using a novel application of a naval encounter model. Mortality estimates from the model were far higher than current minimum estimates derived from stranding records and are closer to extrapolations adjusted for detection probabilities of dead whales. Our most conservative model estimated mortality to be 7.8x, 2.0x and 2.7x the U.S. recommended limit for blue, humpback and fin whales, respectively, suggesting that death from vessel collisions may be a significant impediment to population growth and recovery. Comparing across the study area, the majority of strike mortality occurs in waters off California, from Bodega Bay south and tends to be concentrated in a band approximately 24 Nm (44.5 km) offshore and in designated shipping lanes leading to and from major ports. While some mortality risk exists across nearly all West Coast waters, 74%, 82% and 65% of blue, humpback and fin whale mortality, respectively, occurs in just 10% of the study area, suggesting conservation efforts can be very effective if focused in these waters. Risk is highest in the shipping lanes off San Francisco and Long Beach, but only a fraction of total estimated mortality occurs in these proportionally small areas, making any conservation efforts exclusively within these areas insufficient to address overall strike mortality. We recommend combining shipping lane modifications and re-locations, ship speed reductions and creation of 'Areas to be Avoided' by vessels in ecologically important locations to address this significant source of whale mortality.

A computer simulation approach to quantify the true area and true area compressibility modulus of biological membranes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chacón, Enrique, E-mail: echacon@icmm.csic.es; Tarazona, Pedro, E-mail: pedro.tarazona@uam.es; Bresme, Fernando, E-mail: f.bresme@imperial.ac.uk

We present a new computational approach to quantify the area per lipid and the area compressibility modulus of biological membranes. Our method relies on the analysis of the membrane fluctuations using our recently introduced coupled undulatory (CU) mode [Tarazona et al., J. Chem. Phys. 139, 094902 (2013)], which provides excellent estimates of the bending modulus of model membranes. Unlike the projected area, widely used in computer simulations of membranes, the CU area is thermodynamically consistent. This new area definition makes it possible to accurately estimate the area of the undulating bilayer, and the area per lipid, by excluding any contributionsmore » related to the phospholipid protrusions. We find that the area per phospholipid and the area compressibility modulus features a negligible dependence with system size, making possible their computation using truly small bilayers, involving a few hundred lipids. The area compressibility modulus obtained from the analysis of the CU area fluctuations is fully consistent with the Hooke’s law route. Unlike existing methods, our approach relies on a single simulation, and no a priori knowledge of the bending modulus is required. We illustrate our method by analyzing 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine bilayers using the coarse grained MARTINI force-field. The area per lipid and area compressibility modulus obtained with our method and the MARTINI forcefield are consistent with previous studies of these bilayers.« less

Detection and Estimation of an Optical Image by Photon-Counting Techniques. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Lily Lee

1973-01-01

Statistical description of a photoelectric detector is given. The photosensitive surface of the detector is divided into many small areas, and the moment generating function of the photo-counting statistic is derived for large time-bandwidth product. The detection of a specified optical image in the presence of the background light by using the hypothesis test is discussed. The ideal detector based on the likelihood ratio from a set of numbers of photoelectrons ejected from many small areas of the photosensitive surface is studied and compared with the threshold detector and a simple detector which is based on the likelihood ratio by counting the total number of photoelectrons from a finite area of the surface. The intensity of the image is assumed to be Gaussian distributed spatially against the uniformly distributed background light. The numerical approximation by the method of steepest descent is used, and the calculations of the reliabilities for the detectors are carried out by a digital computer.

August Median Streamflow on Ungaged Streams in Eastern Aroostook County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Tasker, Gary D.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2003-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, Maine, with drainage areas from 0.38 to 43 square miles and mean basin elevations from 437 to 1,024 feet. Few long-term, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with small drainage areas were available from which to develop the equations; therefore, 24 partial-record gaging stations were established in this investigation. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily flows at nearby long-term, continuous-record streamflow- gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for varying periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Twenty-three partial-record stations and one continuous-record station were used for the final regression equations. The basin characteristics of drainage area and mean basin elevation are used in the calculated regression equation for ungaged streams to estimate August median flow. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -38 to 62 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -40 to 67 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow, which can be used when making estimates at partial-record or continuous-record gaging stations, range from 0.03 to 11.7 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.4 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.03 to 30 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.7 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as mean elevation and drainage area increase.

A new contrast-assisted method in microcirculation volumetric flow assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Sheng-Yi; Chen, Yung-Sheng; Yeh, Chih-Kuang

2007-03-01

Microcirculation volumetric flow rate is a significant index in diseases diagnosis and treatment such as diabetes and cancer. In this study, we propose an integrated algorithm to assess microcirculation volumetric flow rate including estimation of blood perfused area and corresponding flow velocity maps based on high frequency destruction/contrast replenishment imaging technique. The perfused area indicates the blood flow regions including capillaries, arterioles and venules. Due to the echo variance changes between ultrasonic contrast agents (UCAs) pre- and post-destruction two images, the perfused area can be estimated by the correlation-based approach. The flow velocity distribution within the perfused area can be estimated by refilling time-intensity curves (TICs) after UCAs destruction. Most studies introduced the rising exponential model proposed by Wei (1998) to fit the TICs. Nevertheless, we found the TICs profile has a great resemblance to sigmoid function in simulations and in vitro experiments results. Good fitting correlation reveals that sigmoid model was more close to actual fact in describing destruction/contrast replenishment phenomenon. We derived that the saddle point of sigmoid model is proportional to blood flow velocity. A strong linear relationship (R = 0.97) between the actual flow velocities (0.4-2.1 mm/s) and the estimated saddle constants was found in M-mode and B-mode flow phantom experiments. Potential applications of this technique include high-resolution volumetric flow rate assessment in small animal tumor and the evaluation of superficial vasculature in clinical studies.

Bladder cancer mapping in Libya based on standardized morbidity ratio and log-normal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley

2017-05-01

Disease mapping contains a set of statistical techniques that detail maps of rates based on estimated mortality, morbidity, and prevalence. A traditional approach to measure the relative risk of the disease is called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR). It is the ratio of an observed and expected number of accounts in an area, which has the greatest uncertainty if the disease is rare or if geographical area is small. Therefore, Bayesian models or statistical smoothing based on Log-normal model are introduced which might solve SMR problem. This study estimates the relative risk for bladder cancer incidence in Libya from 2006 to 2007 based on the SMR and log-normal model, which were fitted to data using WinBUGS software. This study starts with a brief review of these models, starting with the SMR method and followed by the log-normal model, which is then applied to bladder cancer incidence in Libya. All results are compared using maps and tables. The study concludes that the log-normal model gives better relative risk estimates compared to the classical method. The log-normal model has can overcome the SMR problem when there is no observed bladder cancer in an area.

Mercury Levels in Women and Children from Interior Villages in Suriname, South America.

PubMed

Ouboter, Paul E; Landburg, Gwendolyn; Satnarain, Gaitrie U; Starke, Sheryl Y; Nanden, Indra; Simon-Friedt, Bridget; Hawkins, William B; Taylor, Robert; Lichtveld, Maureen Y; Harville, Emily; Wickliffe, Jeffrey K

2018-05-17

Natural sources of mercury, historical gold mining, and contemporary artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) activities have led to mercury contamination in Suriname. Our primary objective was to evaluate mercury levels in hair of women and children from interior villages in Suriname where mercury levels in fish are elevated. We also estimated blood levels of mercury using an established mathematical conversion to facilitate comparison with other biomonitoring programs in the United States. Estimated levels of mercury in the blood of participants from Suriname were significantly higher than those in women from a heavy marine fish-consuming population in southeast Louisiana and estimates of the US national average. This includes women from Surinamese villages well upstream of ASGM activities. Since residents in these areas rely heavily on local fish, this is likely the source of their exposure to mercury. The levels in hair are similar to those seen in women from longitudinal studies finding neurological impairments in children exposed pre- and postnatally. Additional biomonitoring and neurodevelopmental assessments are warranted in these areas, as well as other areas of the Suriname. Mercury levels in hair (Suriname) and blood (southeast LA USA) were determined using cold vapor atomic absorption spectroscopy (CVAAS).

[Estimating Biomass Burned Areas from Multispectral Dataset Detected by Multiple-Satellite].

PubMed

Yu, Chao; Chen, Liang-fu; Li, Shen-shen; Tao, Jin-hua; Su, Lin

2015-03-01

Biomass burning makes up an important part of both trace gases and particulate matter emissions, which can efficiently degrade air quality and reduce visibility, destabilize the global climate system at regional to global scales. Burned area is one of the primary parameters necessary to estimate emissions, and considered to be the largest source of error in the emission inventory. Satellite-based fire observations can offer a reliable source of fire occurrence data on regional and global scales, a variety of sensors have been used to detect and map fires in two general approaches: burn scar mapping and active fire detection. However, both of the two approaches have limitations. In this article, we explore the relationship between hotspot data and burned area for the Southeastern United States, where a significant amount of biomass burnings from both prescribed and wild fire took place. MODIS (Moderate resolution imaging spectrometer) data, which has high temporal-resolution, can be used to monitor ground biomass. burning in time and provided hot spot data in this study. However, pixel size of MODIS hot spot can't stand for the real ground burned area. Through analysis of the variation of vegetation band reflectance between pre- and post-burn, we extracted the burned area from Landsat-5 TM (Thematic Mapper) images by using the differential normalized burn ratio (dNBR) which is based on TM band4 (0.84 μm) and TM band 7(2.22 μm) data. We combined MODIS fire hot spot data and Landsat-5 TM burned scars data to build the burned area estimation model, results showed that the linear correlation coefficient is 0.63 and the relationships vary as a function of vegetation cover. Based on the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), we built burned area estimation model over different vegetation cover, and got effective burned area per fire pixel, values for forest, grassland, shrub, cropland and wetland are 0.69, 1.27, 0.86, 0.72 and 0.94 km2 respectively. We validated the burned area estimates by using the ground survey data from National interagency Fire Center (NIFC), our results are more close to the ground survey data than burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and MODIS burned area product (MCD45), which omitted many small prescribed fires. We concluded that our model can provide more accurate burned area parameters for developing fire emission inventory, and be better for estimating emissions from biomass burning.

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

Variable ranking based on the estimated degree of separation for two distributions of data by the length of the receiver operating characteristic curve.

PubMed

Maswadeh, Waleed M; Snyder, A Peter

2015-05-30

Variable responses are fundamental for all experiments, and they can consist of information-rich, redundant, and low signal intensities. A dataset can consist of a collection of variable responses over multiple classes or groups. Usually some of the variables are removed in a dataset that contain very little information. Sometimes all the variables are used in the data analysis phase. It is common practice to discriminate between two distributions of data; however, there is no formal algorithm to arrive at a degree of separation (DS) between two distributions of data. The DS is defined herein as the average of the sum of the areas from the probability density functions (PDFs) of A and B that contain a≥percentage of A and/or B. Thus, DS90 is the average of the sum of the PDF areas of A and B that contain ≥90% of A and/or B. To arrive at a DS value, two synthesized PDFs or very large experimental datasets are required. Experimentally it is common practice to generate relatively small datasets. Therefore, the challenge was to find a statistical parameter that can be used on small datasets to estimate and highly correlate with the DS90 parameter. Established statistical methods include the overlap area of the two data distribution profiles, Welch's t-test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, and the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). The area between the ROC curve and diagonal (ACD) and the length of the ROC curve (LROC) are introduced. The established, ACD, and LROC methods were correlated to the DS90 when applied on many pairs of synthesized PDFs. The LROC method provided the best linear correlation with, and estimation of, the DS90. The estimated DS90 from the LROC (DS90-LROC) is applied to a database, as an example, of three Italian wines consisting of thirteen variable responses for variable ranking consideration. An important highlight of the DS90-LROC method is utilizing the LROC curve methodology to test all variables one-at-a-time with all pairs of classes in a dataset. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total Catch of a Red-Listed Marine Species Is an Order of Magnitude Higher than Official Data

PubMed Central

Kleiven, Alf Ring; Olsen, Esben Moland; Vølstad, Jon Helge

2012-01-01

Accurate information on total catch and effort is essential for successful fisheries management. Officially reported landings, however, may be underestimates of total catch in many fisheries. We investigated the fishery for the nationally red-listed European lobster (Homarus gammarus) in south-eastern Norway. Probability-based strip transect surveys were used to count buoys in the study area in combination with catch per unit effort data obtained independently from volunteer catch diaries, phone interviews, and questionnaires. We estimate that recreational catch accounts for 65% of total catch in the study area. Moreover, our results indicate that only a small proportion (24%) of lobsters landed commercially were sold through the legal market and documented. Total estimated lobster catch was nearly 14 times higher than reported officially. Our study highlights the need for adequate catch monitoring and data collection efforts in coastal areas, presents a clear warning to resource managers that illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fisheries in coastal areas should not be ignored, and shows the potential impact of recreational fisheries. PMID:22363583

Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

2018-01-01

This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

Polarimetric Radar Retrievals in Southeast Texas During Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, D. B.; Petersen, W. A.; Tokay, A.; Marks, D. A.; Pippitt, J. L.; Kirstetter, P. E.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on September 1, 2017. In its wake, it left a flood of historic proportions, with some areas measuring 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. Although the storm center stayed west of the immediate Houston area training bands of precipitation impacted the Houston area for five full days. The National Weather Service (NWS) WSR88D dual-polarimetric radar (KHGX), located southeast of Houston, maintained operations for the entirety of the event. The Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) had 150 rain gauges deployed in its network and seven NWS Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) rain gauges are also located in the area. In this study, we used the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates within 120 km of the KHGX radar for the period August 25-29, 2017. These estimates were then compared to the HCFWS and ASOS gauges. Three different polarimetric hybrid rainfall retrievals were used: Ciffeli et al. 2011; Bringi et al. 2004; and, Chen et al. 2017. Each of these hybrid retrievals have demonstrated robust performance in the past. However, both daily and event-total comparisons from each of these retrievals compared to those of HCFWS and ASOS rain gauge networks resulted in significant underestimates by the radar retrievals. These radar underestimates are concerning. Sources of error and variance will be investigated to understand the source of radar-gauge disagreement. One current hypothesis is that due to the large number of small drops often found in hurricanes, the differential reflectivity and specific differential phase are relatively small so that the hybrid algorithms use only the reflectivity/rain rate procedure (so called Z-R relationships), and hence rarely invoke the ZDR or KDP procedures. Thus, an alternative Z-R relationship must be invoked to retrieve accurate rain rate estimates.

Parcellations and Hemispheric Asymmetries of Human Cerebral Cortex Analyzed on Surface-Based Atlases

PubMed Central

Glasser, Matthew F.; Dierker, Donna L.; Harwell, John; Coalson, Timothy

2012-01-01

We report on surface-based analyses that enhance our understanding of human cortical organization, including its convolutions and its parcellation into many distinct areas. The surface area of human neocortex averages 973 cm2 per hemisphere, based on cortical midthickness surfaces of 2 cohorts of subjects. We implemented a method to register individual subjects to a hybrid version of the FreeSurfer “fsaverage” atlas whose left and right hemispheres are in precise geographic correspondence. Cortical folding patterns in the resultant population-average “fs_LR” midthickness surfaces are remarkably similar in the left and right hemispheres, even in regions showing significant asymmetry in 3D position. Both hemispheres are equal in average surface area, but hotspots of surface area asymmetry are present in the Sylvian Fissure and elsewhere, together with a broad pattern of asymmetries that are significant though small in magnitude. Multiple cortical parcellation schemes registered to the human atlas provide valuable reference data sets for comparisons with other studies. Identified cortical areas vary in size by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The total number of human neocortical areas is estimated to be ∼150 to 200 areas per hemisphere, which is modestly larger than a recent estimate for the macaque. PMID:22047963

Relationship between land use and water quality in Pesanggrahan River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effendi, Hefni; Muslimah, Sri; Ayu Permatasari, Prita

2018-05-01

Pesanggrahan River watershed has several activities such as residential and commercial area in its catchment area. The purpose of this study was to analyse water quality related to spatial land use in Pesanggrahan River using GIS Analysis. River water quality in some locations, did not meet water quality standard of class III. From pollution load estimation it was revealed that segment 2 (Bogor City) has the highest BOD, COD, and TSS of 15,043 kg/day, 25,619 kg/day, and 18,104 kg/day respectively. On the other hand, the most developed area in Pesanggrahan Watershed is located in segment 7 (24.5%). Hence, it can be concluded that although an area has a fairly small developed area, high urban activity can cause high BOD, COD, and TSS.

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey

PubMed Central

Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

Background In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Objective Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). Methods We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). Results We found that the percentage of MSM among adult men ranged from 1.5% (Wyoming) to 6.0% (Rhode Island) among states. Over one-quarter of MSM in the United States resided in 1 of 13 counties. Among counties with over 300,000 residents, the five highest county-level percentages of MSM were San Francisco County, California at 18.5% (66,586/359,566); New York County, New York at 13.8% (87,556/635,847); Denver County, Colorado at 10.5% (25,465/243,002); Multnomah County, Oregon at 9.9% (28,949/292,450); and Suffolk County, Massachusetts at 9.1% (26,338/289,634). Although California (n=792,750) and Los Angeles County (n=251,521) had the largest MSM populations of states and counties, respectively, the New York City-Newark-Jersey City CBSA had the most MSM of all CBSAs (n=397,399). Conclusions We used a new method to generate small-area estimates of MSM populations, incorporating prior work, recent data, and urbanicity-specific parameters. We also used an imputation approach to estimate MSM in rural areas, where same-sex sexual behavior may be underreported. Our approach yielded estimates of MSM population sizes within states, counties, and metropolitan areas in the United States, which provide denominators for calculation of HIV and STI prevalence and incidence at those geographic levels. PMID:27227149

Estimating the Population Sizes of Men Who Have Sex With Men in US States and Counties Using Data From the American Community Survey.

PubMed

Grey, Jeremy A; Bernstein, Kyle T; Sullivan, Patrick S; Purcell, David W; Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Rosenberg, Eli S

2016-01-01

In the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels. Our objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). We used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%). We found that the percentage of MSM among adult men ranged from 1.5% (Wyoming) to 6.0% (Rhode Island) among states. Over one-quarter of MSM in the United States resided in 1 of 13 counties. Among counties with over 300,000 residents, the five highest county-level percentages of MSM were San Francisco County, California at 18.5% (66,586/359,566); New York County, New York at 13.8% (87,556/635,847); Denver County, Colorado at 10.5% (25,465/243,002); Multnomah County, Oregon at 9.9% (28,949/292,450); and Suffolk County, Massachusetts at 9.1% (26,338/289,634). Although California (n=792,750) and Los Angeles County (n=251,521) had the largest MSM populations of states and counties, respectively, the New York City-Newark-Jersey City CBSA had the most MSM of all CBSAs (n=397,399). We used a new method to generate small-area estimates of MSM populations, incorporating prior work, recent data, and urbanicity-specific parameters. We also used an imputation approach to estimate MSM in rural areas, where same-sex sexual behavior may be underreported. Our approach yielded estimates of MSM population sizes within states, counties, and metropolitan areas in the United States, which provide denominators for calculation of HIV and STI prevalence and incidence at those geographic levels.

Methods for estimating selected flow-duration and flood-frequency characteristics at ungaged sites in Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.

1998-01-01

Methods for estimating daily mean discharges for selected flow durations and flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals at ungaged sites in central Idaho were applied using data collected at streamflow-gaging stations in the area. The areal and seasonal variability of discharge from ungaged drainage basins may be described by estimating daily mean discharges that are exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time each month. At 73 gaging stations, mean monthly discharge was regressed with discharge at three points—20, 50, and 80—from daily mean flow-duration curves for each month. Regression results were improved by dividing the study area into six regions. Previously determined estimates of mean monthly discharge from about 1,200 ungaged drainage basins provided the basis for applying the developed techniques to the ungaged basins. Estimates of daily mean discharges that are exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time each month at ungaged drainage basins can be made by multiplying mean monthly discharges estimated at ungaged sites by a regression factor for the appropriate region. In general, the flow-duration data were less accurately estimated at discharges exceeded 80 percent of the time than at discharges exceeded 20 percent of the time. Curves drawn through the three points for each of the six regions were most similar in July and most different from December through March. Coefficients of determination of the regressions indicate that differences in mean monthly discharge largely explain differences in discharge at points on the daily mean flow-duration curve. Inherent in the method are errors in the technique used to estimate mean monthly discharge. Flood discharge estimates for selected recurrence intervals at ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations can be determined by a transfer technique. A weighted ratio of drainage area times flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals at the gaging station can be used to estimate flood discharge at the ungaged site. Best results likely are obtained when the difference between gaged and ungaged drainage areas is small.

Exploring the Application of Optical Remote Sensing as a Method to Estimate the Depth of Backwater Nursery Habitats of the Colorado Pikeminnow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamada, Yuki; LaGory, Kirk E.

2016-02-01

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sand bars, and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. A recent synthesis of information on backwater characteristics and the factors that influence inter-annual variability in those backwaters (Grippo et al. 2015) evaluated detailed survey information collected annually since 2003 on a relatively small sample of backwaters, as well as reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area from aerial and satellite imagery. An approach is neededmore » to bridge the gap between these detailed surveys, which estimate surface area, volume, and depth, and the reach-wide assessment of surface area to enable an assessment of the amount of habitat that meets the minimum depth requirements for suitable habitat.« less

Physiological studies in young Eucalyptus stands in southern India and their use in estimating forest transpiration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, J.M.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Murthy, K.V.

1992-12-31

Stomatal conductance, leaf water potential and leaf area index were measured in adjacent plantations of Eucalyptus camaldulensis and Eucalyptus tereticornis at Puradal, near Shimoga, Karnataka, southern India. The data were collected in a range of climatic conditions during a two year period immediately following plantation establishment. Physiological differences between the two species were small and confined largely to leaf area index. Stomatal conductance was highest in the post-monsoon period and declined to minimum values immediately prior to the onset of the monsoon, with the lowest conductances observed after the plantations had been established for more than one year. Stomatal conductance,more » leaf area index and above-canopy meteorological data were combined in a multi-layer transpiration model and used to calculate hourly values of transpiration from the two species. Rates of transpiration up to 6 mm d{sup {minus}1} were estimated for the post-monsoon period but fell to below 1 mm d{sup {minus}1} prior to the monsoon.« less

Estimating cigarette tax avoidance and evasion: evidence from a national sample of littered packs

PubMed Central

Barker, Dianne C; Wang, Shu; Merriman, David; Crosby, Andrew; Resnick, Elissa A; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-01-01

Introduction A number of recent studies document the proportion of all cigarette packs that are ‘contraband’ using discarded packs to measure tax avoidance and evasion, which we call tax non-compliance. To date, academic studies using discarded packs focused on relatively small geographical areas such as a city or a neighbourhood. Methods We visited 160 communities across 38 US states in 2012 and collected data from littered cigarette packs as part of the State and Community Tobacco Control (SCTC) Research Initiative and the Bridging the Gap Community Obesity Measures Project (BTG-COMP). Data collectors were trained in a previously tested littered pack data collection protocol. Results Field teams collected 2116 packs with cellophane across 132 communities. We estimate a national tax non-compliance rate of 18.5% with considerable variation across regions. Suburban areas had lower non-compliance than urban areas as well as areas with high and low median household income areas compared with middle income areas. Discussion We present the first academic national study of tax non-compliance using littered cigarette packs. We demonstrate the feasibility of meaningful large-scale data collection using this methodology and document considerable variation in tax non-compliance across areas, suggesting that both policy differences and geography may be important in control of illicit tobacco use. Given the geography of open borders among countries with varying tax rates, this simple methodology may be appropriate to estimate tax non-compliance in countries that use tax stamps or other pack markings, such as health warnings. PMID:27697946

Internal Dose from Food and Drink Ingestion in the Early Phase after the Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawai, Masaki; Yoshizawa, Nobuaki; Hirakawa, Sachiko; Murakami, Kana; Takizawa, Mari; Sato, Osamu; Takagi, Shunji; Miyatake, Hirokazu; Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Suzuki, Gen

2017-09-01

Activity concentrations in food and drink, represented by water and vegetables, have been monitored continuously since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, with a focus on radioactive cesium. On the other hand, iodine-131 was not measured systematically in the early phase after the accident. The activity concentrations of iodine-131 in food and drink are important to estimate internal exposure due to ingestion pathway. When the internal dose from ingestion in the evacuation areas is estimated, water is considered as the main ingestion pathway. In this study, we estimated the values of activity concentrations in water in the early phase after the accident, using a compartment model as an estimation method. The model uses measurement values of activity concentration and deposition rate of iodine-131 onto the ground, which is calculated from an atmospheric dispersion simulation. The model considers how drinking water would be affected by radionuclides deposited into water. We estimated the activity concentrations of water on Kawamata town and Minamisouma city during March of 2011 and the committed effective doses were 0.08 mSv and 0.06 mSv. We calculated the transfer parameters in the model for estimating the activity concentrations in the areas with a small amount of measurement data. In addition, we estimated the committed effective doses from vegetables using atmospheric dispersion simulation and FARMLAND model in case of eating certain vegetables as option information.

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

2008-01-01

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Characteristics of small young lunar impact craters focusing on current production and degradation on the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kereszturi, Akos; Steinmann, Vilmos

2017-11-01

Analysing the size-frequency distribution of very small lunar craters (sized below 100 m including ones below 10 m) using LROC images, spatial density and related age estimations were calculated for mare and terra terrains. Altogether 1.55 km2 area was surveyed composed of 0.1-0.2 km2 units, counting 2784 craters. The maximal areal density was present at the 4-8 m diameter range at every analysed terrain suggesting the bombardment is areally relatively homogeneous. Analysing the similarities and differences between various areas, the mare terrains look about two times older than the terra terrains using <100 m diameter craters. The calculated ages ranged between 13 and 20 Ma for mare, 4-6 Ma for terra terrains. Substantial fluctuation (min: 936 craters/km2, max: 2495 craters/km2) was observed without obvious source of nearby secondaries or fresh ejecta blanket produced fresh crater. Randomness analysis and visual inspection also suggested no secondary craters or ejecta blanket from fresh impact could contribute substantially in the observed heterogeneity of the areal distribution of small craters - thus distant secondaries or even other, poorly known resurfacing processes should be considered in the future. The difference between the terra/mare ages might come only partly from the easier identification of small craters on smooth mare terrains, as the differences were observed for larger (30-60 m diameter) craters too. Difference in the target hardness could more contribute in this effect. It was possible to separate two groups of small craters based on their appearance: a rimmed thus less eroded, and a rimless thus more eroded one. As the separate usage of different morphology groups of craters for age estimation at the same area is not justifiable, this was used only for comparison. The SFD curves of these two groups showed characteristic differences: the steepness of the fresh craters' SFD curves are similar to each other and were larger than the isochrones. The eroded craters' SFD curves also resemble to each other, which are less steep than the isochrones. These observations confirm the expectation that as the time passes by, rims are erased and depressions became shallower, presenting such observations for the first time in this small crater size range.

Geological reconnaissance of some Uruguayan iron and manganese deposits in 1962

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Roberts Manning

1976-01-01

Three mineralized areas lie in an area near the town of Minas de Corrales in the Departamento de Rivera; they are the Cerro Amelia, the Cerro de Papagayo, and the Cerro Iman. The Cerro Amelia is composed of small bands of iron-rich rock separated by an amphibolitic or mafic rock. Selective mining would be necessary to extract the 31,000 tons per meter of depth of iron-rich rock that ranges from 15 to 40 percent metallic iron. The Cerro de Papagayo district contains many small, rich deposits of ferruginous manganese ore. The ratio of Mn to Fe varies widely within each small deposit as well as from deposit to deposit. Some ferruginous manganese ore contains 50-55 percent manganese dioxide. Although there are many thousands of tons of ore in the district, small-scale mining operations are imperative. One deposit, the Cerro Avestuz manganese mine, was visited. The manganese ore body lies within contorted highly metamorphosed itabirite that contains both hard low grade and soft high grade ferruginous manganese ores estimated to average 40 percent Mn. About 38,000 tons of manganese ore is present in this deposit. The Cerro Iman is a large block of itabirite that contains about 40 percent Fe. The grade is variable and probably runs from less than 35 percent Fe to more than 50 percent Fe. No exploration has been done on this deposit. It is recommended that the Cerro de Iman area be geologically mapped in detail, and that a geological reconnaissance be made of the area that is between the Cuchilla de Corrales and the Cuchilla de Areycua/Cuchilla del Cerro Pelado area.

Classification of event location using matched filters via on-floor accelerometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolard, Americo G.; Malladi, V. V. N. Sriram; Alajlouni, Sa'ed; Tarazaga, Pablo A.

2017-04-01

Recent years have shown prolific advancements in smart infrastructures, allowing buildings of the modern world to interact with their occupants. One of the sought-after attributes of smart buildings is the ability to provide unobtrusive, indoor localization of occupants. The ability to locate occupants indoors can provide a broad range of benefits in areas such as security, emergency response, and resource management. Recent research has shown promising results in occupant building localization, although there is still significant room for improvement. This study presents a passive, small-scale localization system using accelerometers placed around the edges of a small area in an active building environment. The area is discretized into a grid of small squares, and vibration measurements are processed using a pattern matching approach that estimates the location of the source. Vibration measurements are produced with ball-drops, hammer-strikes, and footsteps as the sources of the floor excitation. The developed approach uses matched filters based on a reference data set, and the location is classified using a nearest-neighbor search. This approach detects the appropriate location of impact-like sources i.e. the ball-drops and hammer-strikes with a 100% accuracy. However, this accuracy reduces to 56% for footsteps, with the average localization results being within 0.6 m (α = 0.05) from the true source location. While requiring a reference data set can make this method difficult to implement on a large scale, it may be used to provide accurate localization abilities in areas where training data is readily obtainable. This exploratory work seeks to examine the feasibility of the matched filter and nearest neighbor search approach for footstep and event localization in a small, instrumented area within a multi-story building.

Flat-Sky Pseudo-Cls Analysis for Weak Gravitational Lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari, Marika; Taylor, Andy; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kitching, Thomas D.

2018-05-01

We investigate the use of estimators of weak lensing power spectra based on a flat-sky implementation of the 'Pseudo-CI' (PCl) technique, where the masked shear field is transformed without regard for masked regions of sky. This masking mixes power, and 'E'-convergence and 'B'-modes. To study the accuracy of forward-modelling and full-sky power spectrum recovery we consider both large-area survey geometries, and small-scale masking due to stars and a checkerboard model for field-of-view gaps. The power spectrum for the large-area survey geometry is sparsely-sampled and highly oscillatory, which makes modelling problematic. Instead, we derive an overall calibration for large-area mask bias using simulated fields. The effects of small-area star masks can be accurately corrected for, while the checkerboard mask has oscillatory and spiky behaviour which leads to percent biases. Apodisation of the masked fields leads to increased biases and a loss of information. We find that we can construct an unbiased forward-model of the raw PCls, and recover the full-sky convergence power to within a few percent accuracy for both Gaussian and lognormal-distributed shear fields. Propagating this through to cosmological parameters using a Fisher-Matrix formalism, we find we can make unbiased estimates of parameters for surveys up to 1,200 deg2 with 30 galaxies per arcmin2, beyond which the percent biases become larger than the statistical accuracy. This implies a flat-sky PCl analysis is accurate for current surveys but a Euclid-like survey will require higher accuracy.

Common mental disorders, neighbourhood income inequality and income deprivation: small-area multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Fone, David; Greene, Giles; Farewell, Daniel; White, James; Kelly, Mark; Dunstan, Frank

2013-04-01

Common mental disorders are more prevalent in areas of high neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation but whether the prevalence varies with neighbourhood income inequality is not known. To investigate the hypothesis that the interaction between small-area income deprivation and income inequality was associated with individual mental health. Multilevel analysis of population data from the Welsh Health Survey, 2003/04-2010. A total of 88,623 respondents aged 18-74 years were nested within 50,587 households within 1887 lower super output areas (neighbourhoods) and 22 unitary authorities (regions), linked to the Gini coefficient (income inequality) and the per cent of households living in poverty (income deprivation). Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Inventory MHI-5 as a discrete variable and as a 'case' of common mental disorder. High neighbourhood income inequality was associated with better mental health in low-deprivation neighbourhoods after adjusting for individual and household risk factors (parameter estimate +0.70 (s.e. = 0.33), P = 0.036; odds ratio (OR) for common mental disorder case 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97). Income inequality at regional level was significantly associated with poorer mental health (parameter estimate -1.35 (s.e. = 0.54), P = 0.012; OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.22). The associations between common mental disorders, income inequality and income deprivation are complex. Income inequality at neighbourhood level is less important than income deprivation as a risk factor for common mental disorders. The adverse effect of income inequality starts to operate at the larger regional level.

Crop identification and acreage measurement utilizing ERTS imagery. [Missouri, Kansa, Idaho, and South Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wigton, W. H.; Vonsteen, D. H.

1974-01-01

The Statistical Reporting Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture is evaluating ERTS-1 imagery as a potential tool for estimating crop acreage. A main data source for the estimates is obtained by enumerating small land parcels that have been randomly selected from the total U.S. land area. These small parcels are being used as ground observations in this investigation. The test sites are located in Missouri, Kansas, Idaho, and South Dakota. The major crops of interest are wheat, cotton, corn, soybeans, sugar beets, potatoes, oats, alfalfa, and grain sorghum. Some of the crops are unique to a given site while others are common in two or three states. This provides an opportunity to observe crops grown under different conditions. Results for the Missouri test site are presented. Results of temporal overlays, unequal prior probabilities, and sample classifiers are discussed. The amount of improvement that each technique contributes is shown in terms of overall performance. The results show that useful information for making crop acreage estimates can be obtained from ERTS-1 data.

Identification and characterization of high methane-emitting abandoned oil and gas wells

PubMed Central

Kang, Mary; Christian, Shanna; Celia, Michael A.; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Bill, Markus; Miller, Alana R.; Chen, Yuheng; Conrad, Mark E.; Darrah, Thomas H.; Jackson, Robert B.

2016-01-01

Recent measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil/gas wells show that these wells can be a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere, particularly from a small proportion of high-emitting wells. However, identifying high emitters remains a challenge. We couple 163 well measurements of methane flow rates; ethane, propane, and n-butane concentrations; isotopes of methane; and noble gas concentrations from 88 wells in Pennsylvania with synthesized data from historical documents, field investigations, and state databases. Using our databases, we (i) improve estimates of the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania; (ii) characterize key attributes that accompany high emitters, including depth, type, plugging status, and coal area designation; and (iii) estimate attribute-specific and overall methane emissions from abandoned wells. High emitters are best predicted as unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells in coal areas and appear to be unrelated to the presence of underground natural gas storage areas or unconventional oil/gas production. Repeat measurements over 2 years show that flow rates of high emitters are sustained through time. Our attribute-based methane emission data and our comprehensive estimate of 470,000–750,000 abandoned wells in Pennsylvania result in estimated state-wide emissions of 0.04–0.07 Mt (1012 g) CH4 per year. This estimate represents 5–8% of annual anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Our methodology combining new field measurements with data mining of previously unavailable well attributes and numbers of wells can be used to improve methane emission estimates and prioritize cost-effective mitigation strategies for Pennsylvania and beyond. PMID:27849603

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2017-12-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin.

PubMed

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Rapid determination of leaf area and plant height by using light curtain arrays in four species with contrasting shoot architecture

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Light curtain arrays (LC), a recently introduced phenotyping method, yield a binary data matrix from which a shoot silhouette is reconstructed. We addressed the accuracy and applicability of LC in assessing leaf area and maximum height (base to the highest leaf tip) in a phenotyping platform. LC were integrated to an automated routine for positioning, allowing in situ measurements. Two dicotyledonous (rapeseed, tomato) and two monocotyledonous (maize, barley) species with contrasting shoot architecture were investigated. To evaluate if averaging multiple view angles helps in resolving self-overlaps, we acquired a data set by rotating plants every 10° for 170°. To test how rapid these measurements can be without loss of information, we evaluated nine scanning speeds. Leaf area of overlapping plants was also estimated to assess the possibility to scale this method for plant stands. Results The relation between measured and calculated maximum height was linear and nearly the same for all species. Linear relations were also found between plant leaf area and calculated pixel area. However, the regression slope was different between monocotyledonous and dicotyledonous species. Increasing the scanning speed stepwise from 0.9 to 23.4 m s−1 did not affect the estimation of maximum height. Instead, the calculated pixel area was inversely proportional to scanning speed. The estimation of plant leaf area by means of calculated pixel area became more accurate by averaging consecutive silhouettes and/or increasing the angle between them. Simulations showed that decreasing plant distance gradually from 20 to 0 cm, led to underestimation of plant leaf area owing to overlaps. This underestimation was more important for large plants of dicotyledonous species and for small plants of monocotyledonous ones. Conclusions LC offer an accurate estimation of plant leaf area and maximum height, while the number of consecutive silhouettes that needs to be averaged is species-dependent. A constant scanning speed is important for leaf area estimations by using LC. Simulations of the effect of varying plant spacing gave promising results for method application in sets of partly overlapping plants, which applies also to field conditions during and after canopy closure for crops sown in rows. PMID:24721154

Income level and regional policies, underlying factors associated with unwarranted variations in conservative breast cancer surgery in Spain

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Geographical variations in medical practice are expected to be small when the evidence about the effectiveness and safety of a particular technology is abundant. This would be the case of the prescription of conservative surgery in breast cancer patients. In these cases, when variation is larger than expected by need, socioeconomic factors have been argued as an explanation. Objectives: Using an ecologic design, our study aims at describing the variability in the use of surgical conservative versus non-conservative treatment. Additionally, it seeks to establish whether the socioeconomic status of the healthcare area influences the use of one or the other technique. Methods 81,868 mastectomies performed between 2002 and 2006 in 180 healthcare areas were studied. Standardized utilization rates of breast cancer conservative (CS) and non-conservative (NCS) procedures were estimated as well as the variation among areas, using small area statistics. Concentration curves and dominance tests were estimated to determine the impact of income and instruction levels in the healthcare area on surgery rates. Multilevel analyses were performed to determine the influence of regional policies. Results Variation in the use of CS was massive (4-fold factor between the highest and the lowest rate) and larger than in the case of NCS (2-fold), whichever the age group. Healthcare areas with higher economic and instruction levels showed highest rates of CS, regardless of the age group, while areas with lower economic and educational levels yielded higher rates of NCS interventions. Living in a particular Autonomous Community (AC), explained a substantial part of the CS residual variance (up to a 60.5% in women 50 to 70). Conclusion The place where a woman lives -income level and regional policies- explain the unexpectedly high variation found in utilization rates of conservative breast cancer surgery. PMID:21504577

Remote sensing and GIS analyses for emergency manouvering and forced landing areas definition as a support for general aviation flights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skocki, Krzysztof

2016-08-01

This paper summarizes the preliminary analyses of using existing remote sensing data, medium and high-resolution satellite and airborne data to define safe emergency landing and maneuvering areas to be used by small aircrafts operating from small airports and airfields in Poland. The pilots need to know such places in the interest of safe flight operations. In common practice, flying instructors typically show the student pilot fields around the airfield supposed to be suitable for emergency or precautionary landing (or ditching) in the initial phase of the training. Although it looks to cover the most basic needs, the problem still exists in relation to guest pilots. To fill this gap, the unified safety map document covering the safe emergency areas around the airfields is proposed in this research. Use of satellite high resolution data, as well as aerial photos, infrastructure information, with use of GIS tools (like buffer zones, distance, equal-time circles or position lines) enable to check the terrain around selected airfields and define possible areas suitable for emergency operations. In the second phase of work, selected areas will be described in terms of easy navigation, possible infrastructure around them, rescue possibilities, radio signal coverage, and others. The selected areas should be also checked for typical cover and surface hardness and stability (eg. with use of moisture estimation on the base of middle-resolution satellite data). Its planned to prepare one combined and separate sheets of the final map for various aircraft characteristics (`classes' of small Cessna-related, big Cessna-related, fast low-wing Diamond-like, two-engine Piper-like). The presented concept should highly increase the safety operations for small aviation in secondary airports and airfields, where the information available is limited. There is also a possibility to make a similar maps for `cruise', which means the areas with dense traffic between the airports/airfields.

A tool for the estimation of the distribution of landslide area in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, M.; Cardinali, M.; Fiorucci, F.; Marchesini, I.; Mondini, A. C.; Santangelo, M.; Ghosh, S.; Riguer, D. E. L.; Lahousse, T.; Chang, K. T.; Guzzetti, F.

2012-04-01

We have developed a tool in R (the free software environment for statistical computing, http://www.r-project.org/) to estimate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area. The tool implements parametric and non-parametric approaches to the estimation of the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area, including: (i) Histogram Density Estimation (HDE), (ii) Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and (iii) Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The tool is available as a standard Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Service (WPS), and is accessible through the web using different GIS software clients. We tested the tool to compare Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma models for the probability density of landslide area in different geological, morphological and climatological settings, and to compare landslides shown in inventory maps prepared using different mapping techniques, including (i) field mapping, (ii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic aerial photographs, (iii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic VHR satellite images and (iv) semi-automatic detection and mapping from VHR satellite images. Results show that both models are applicable in different geomorphological settings. In most cases the two models provided very similar results. Non-parametric estimation methods (i.e., HDE and KDE) provided reasonable results for all the tested landslide datasets. For some of the datasets, MLE failed to provide a result, for convergence problems. The two tested models (Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma) resulted in very similar results for large and very large datasets (> 150 samples). Differences in the modeling results were observed for small datasets affected by systematic biases. A distinct rollover was observed in all analyzed landslide datasets, except for a few datasets obtained from landslide inventories prepared through field mapping or by semi-automatic mapping from VHR satellite imagery. The tool can also be used to evaluate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide volume.

Mismatched summation mechanisms in older adults for the perception of small moving stimuli.

PubMed

McDougall, Thomas J; Nguyen, Bao N; McKendrick, Allison M; Badcock, David R

2018-01-01

Previous studies have found evidence for reduced cortical inhibition in aging visual cortex. Reduced inhibition could plausibly increase the spatial area of excitation in receptive fields of older observers, as weaker inhibitory processes would allow the excitatory receptive field to dominate and be psychophysically measureable over larger areas. Here, we investigated aging effects on spatial summation of motion direction using the Battenberg summation method, which aims to control the influence of locally generated internal noise changes by holding overall display size constant. This method produces more accurate estimates of summation area than conventional methods that simply increase overall stimulus dimensions. Battenberg stimuli have a checkerboard arrangement, where check size (luminance-modulated drifting gratings alternating with mean luminance areas), but not display size, is varied and compared with performance for a full field stimulus to provide a measure of summation. Motion direction discrimination thresholds, where contrast was the dependent variable, were measured in 14 younger (24-34 years) and 14 older (62-76 years) adults. Older observers were less sensitive for all check sizes, but the relative sensitivity across sizes, also differed between groups. In the older adults, the full field stimulus offered smaller performance improvements compared to that for younger adults, specifically for the small checked Battenberg stimuli. This suggests aging impacts on short-range summation mechanisms, potentially underpinned by larger summation areas for the perception of small moving stimuli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limited Access to AP Courses for Students in Smaller and More Isolated Rural School Districts. National Issue Brief Number 80

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagnon, Douglas J.; Mattingly, Marybeth J.

2015-01-01

This brief assesses trends in access to, enrollment in, and success in Advanced Placement (AP) coursework in relation to school district poverty, racial composition, and urbanicity. It uses data merged from the 2011-2012 Civil Rights Data Collection (CRDC), the 2012 Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE), and the 2010 Decennial U.S.…

Calculating erosion rates of river bank sediment by combining field measurements of erodibility parameters and small-scale topographic features – A case study at the Danube River

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper examines the application of a method for calculating fluvial erosion on river banks. In the investigated area the determination of potential erosion rates are essential to estimating the initiated river widening processes and their effect on navigation. A mini-jet device was employed, for...

Cubic-Foot Volume Tables for Shortleaf Pine in the Virginia-Carolina Piedmont

Treesearch

Glenn P. Haney; Paul P. Kormanik

1962-01-01

Available volume tables for shortleaf pine are based on merchantable height and do not show volumes to the small top diameter limits now used in many areas. Volume tables based on total height are also often preferred because they eliminate the error associated with ocular estimates of merchantable height. The table presented here for natural shortleaf pine is based on...

Culvert flow in small drainages in montane tropical forests: observations from the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico.

Treesearch

F. N. Scatena

1990-01-01

This paper describe the hydraulics of unsubmerged flow for 5 culverts in the Luiquillo Esperimental Forest of Puerto Rico. A General equation based on empirical data is presented to estimate culvert discharge during unsubmerged conditions. Large culverts are needed in humid tropical montane areas than in humid temperatute watersheds and are usually appropriate only...

Estimating wind-turbine-caused bird and bat fatality when zero carcasses are observed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Dalthorp, Daniel; Dail, David; Madsen, Lisa

2015-01-01

Many wind-power facilities in the United States have established effective monitoring programs to determine turbine-caused fatality rates of birds and bats, but estimating the number of fatalities of rare species poses special difficulties. The loss of even small numbers of individuals may adversely affect fragile populations, but typically, few (if any) carcasses are observed during monitoring. If monitoring design results in only a small proportion of carcasses detected, then finding zero carcasses may give little assurance that the number of actual fatalities is small. Fatality monitoring at wind-power facilities commonly involves conducting experiments to estimate the probability (g) an individual will be observed, accounting for the possibilities that it falls in an unsearched area, is scavenged prior to detection, or remains undetected even when present. When g < 1, the total carcass count (X) underestimates the total number of fatalities (M). Total counts can be 0 when M is small or when M is large and g ≪1. Distinguishing these two cases is critical when estimating fatality of a rare species. Observing no individuals during searches may erroneously be interpreted as evidence of absence. We present an approach that uses Bayes' theorem to construct a posterior distribution for M, i.e., P(M | X, ĝ), reflecting the observed carcass count and previously estimated g. From this distribution, we calculate two values important to conservation: the probability that M is below a predetermined limit and the upper bound (M*) of the 100(1 − α)% credible interval for M. We investigate the dependence of M* on α, g, and the prior distribution of M, asking what value of g is required to attain a desired M* for a given α. We found that when g < ~0.15, M* was clearly influenced by the mean and variance of ĝ and the choice of prior distribution for M, but the influence of these factors is minimal when g > ~0.45. Further, we develop extensions for temporal replication that can inform prior distributions of M and methods for combining information across several areas or time periods. We apply the method to data collected at a wind-power facility where scheduled searches yielded X = 0 raptor carcasses

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, Kathleen M.; DelCharco, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression models in the region ranged from 65 to 68 percent. The basins that drain into the northern part of Tampa Bay and the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin are in Region 3, which had prediction errors ranging from 54 to 74 percent. Region 4, at the southern end of the study area, had prediction errors that ranged from 40 to 56 percent. Estimates of flood discharge become more accurate as longer periods of record are used for analyses; results of this study should be used in lieu of results from earlier U.S. Geological Survey studies of flood magnitude and frequency in west-central Florida. A comparison of current results with earlier studies indicates that use of a longer period of record with additional high-water events produces substantially higher flood-discharge estimates for many gaging stations. Another comparison indicates that the use of a computed, generalized skew in a previous study in 1979 tended to overestimate flood discharges.

Using safety inspection data to estimate shaking intensity for the 1994 Northridge earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thywissen, K.; Boatwright, J.

1998-01-01

We map the shaking intensity suffered in Los Angeles County during the 17 January 1994, Northridge earthquake using municipal safety inspection data. The intensity is estimated from the number of buildings given red, yellow, or green tags, aggregated by census tract. Census tracts contain from 200 to 4000 residential buildings and have an average area of 6 km2 but are as small as 2 and 1 km2 in the most densely populated areas of the San Fernando Valley and downtown Los Angeles, respectively. In comparison, the zip code areas on which standard MMI intensity estimates are based are six times larger, on average, than the census tracts. We group the buildings by age (before and after 1940 and 1976), by number of housing units (one, two to four, and five or more), and by construction type, and we normalize the tags by the total number of similar buildings in each census tract. We analyze the seven most abundant building categories. The fragilities (the fraction of buildings in each category tagged within each intensity level) for these seven building categories are adjusted so that the intensity estimates agree. We calibrate the shaking intensity to correspond with the modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) estimated and compiled by Dewey et al. (1995); the shapes of the resulting isoseismals are similar, although we underestimate the extent of the MMI = 6 and 7 areas. The fragility varies significantly between different building categories (by factors of 10 to 20) and building ages (by factors of 2 to 6). The post-1940 wood-frame multi-family (???5 units) dwellings make up the most fragile building category, and the post-1940 wood-frame single-family dwellings make up the most resistant building category.

Reliability of recording uterine cancer in death certification in France and age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri.

PubMed

Rogel, Agnès; Belot, Aurélien; Suzan, Florence; Bossard, Nadine; Boussac, Marjorie; Arveux, Patrick; Buémi, Antoine; Colonna, Marc; Danzon, Arlette; Ganry, Olivier; Guizard, Anne-Valérie; Grosclaude, Pascale; Velten, Michel; Jougla, Eric; Iwaz, Jean; Estève, Jacques; Chérié-Challine, Laurence; Remontet, Laurent

2011-06-01

French uterine cancer recordings in death certificates include 60% of "uterine cancer, Not Otherwise Specified (NOS)"; this hampers the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers. The aims of this work were to study the reliability of uterine cancer recordings in death certificates using a case matching with cancer registries and estimate age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri cancers among all uterine cancer deaths by a statistical approach that uses incidence and survival data. Deaths from uterine cancer between 1989 and 2001 were extracted from the French National database of causes of death and case-to-case matched to women diagnosed with uterine cancer between 1989 and 1997 in 8 cancer registries. Registry data were considered as "gold-standard". Among the 1825 matched deaths, cancer registries recorded 830 cervix and 995 corpus uteri cancers. In death certificates, 5% and 40% of "true" cervix cancers were respectively coded "corpus" and "uterus, NOS" and 5% and 59% of "true" corpus cancers respectively coded "cervix" and "uterus, NOS". Miscoding cervix cancers was more frequent at advanced ages at death and in deaths at home or in small urban areas. Miscoding corpus cancers was more frequent in deaths at home or in small urban areas. From the statistical method, the estimated proportion of deaths from cervix cancer among all uterine cancer deaths was higher than 95% in women aged 30-40 years old but declined to 35% in women older than 70 years. The study clarifies the reason for poor encoding of uterus cancer mortality and refines the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers allowing future studies on the efficacy of cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating terrestrial aboveground biomass estimation using lidar remote sensing: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolkos, S. G.; Goetz, S. J.; Dubayah, R.

2012-12-01

Estimating biomass of terrestrial vegetation is a rapidly expanding research area, but also a subject of tremendous interest for reducing carbon emissions associated with deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The accuracy of biomass estimates is important in the context carbon markets emerging under REDD, since areas with more accurate estimates command higher prices, but also for characterizing uncertainty in estimates of carbon cycling and the global carbon budget. There is particular interest in mapping biomass so that carbon stocks and stock changes can be monitored consistently across a range of scales - from relatively small projects (tens of hectares) to national or continental scales - but also so that other benefits of forest conservation can be factored into decision making (e.g. biodiversity and habitat corridors). We conducted an analysis of reported biomass accuracy estimates from more than 60 refereed articles using different remote sensing platforms (aircraft and satellite) and sensor types (optical, radar, lidar), with a particular focus on lidar since those papers reported the greatest efficacy (lowest errors) when used in the a synergistic manner with other coincident multi-sensor measurements. We show systematic differences in accuracy between different types of lidar systems flown on different platforms but, perhaps more importantly, differences between forest types (biomes) and plot sizes used for field calibration and assessment. We discuss these findings in relation to monitoring, reporting and verification under REDD, and also in the context of more systematic assessment of factors that influence accuracy and error estimation.

Predicting Grizzly Bear Density in Western North America

PubMed Central

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C.; Schwarz, Carl J.

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend. PMID:24367552

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America.

PubMed

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C; Schwarz, Carl J

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Survival After HIV Infection Stage 3 (AIDS) Diagnosis, by Population Density Areas, United States, 2005-2010.

PubMed

Bosh, Karin A; Shi, Jing; Chen, Mi

We examined the survival rates after diagnosis of HIV infection stage 3 (AIDS) in the United States by population density area of residence at diagnosis. We used data from the National HIV Surveillance System to calculate survival rates among people aged ≥13 with HIV infection stage 3 (AIDS) diagnosed from 2005 through 2010. We determined survival rates for more than 12, 24, and 36 months after diagnosis; overall and by demographic characteristics; and across 3 population density area categories (large metropolitan statistical areas [MSAs, ≥500 000 people], small-to-medium MSAs [50 000 to 499 999 people], and nonmetropolitan areas [<50 000 people]). The survival rates for more than 12, 24, and 36 months after diagnosis were highest among people residing in large MSAs (90.2%, 87.2%, and 84.9%, respectively) and lowest among people residing in nonmetropolitan areas (87.3%, 84.1%, and 81.4%, respectively). With a few exceptions, survival rates were lower in those residing in nonmetropolitan areas than those residing in large MSAs and small-to-medium MSAs across most subgroups by age at diagnosis, race/ethnicity, sex, transmission category, region of residence, and year of diagnosis. Between 2005 and 2010, significant year-to-year increases occurred in the proportion of people surviving more than 36 months after diagnosis across all 3 population density area categories (estimated annual percentage change: large MSAs [0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56-1.20]; small-to-medium MSAs [0.94; 95% CI, 0.06-1.83]; and nonmetropolitan areas [1.26; 95% CI, 0.07-2.46]). Although survival rates for those with HIV infection stage 3 (AIDS) improved in all 3 population density area categories, efforts to remove barriers to care and promote treatment adherence in nonmetropolitan areas will be necessary to eliminate survival disparities.

Video Meteor Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell-Brown, M. D.; Braid, D.

2011-01-01

The flux of meteoroids, or number of meteoroids per unit area per unit time, is critical for calibrating models of meteoroid stream formation and for estimating the hazard to spacecraft from shower and sporadic meteors. Although observations of meteors in the millimetre to centimetre size range are common, flux measurements (particularly for sporadic meteors, which make up the majority of meteoroid flux) are less so. It is necessary to know the collecting area and collection time for a given set of observations, and to correct for observing biases and the sensitivity of the system. Previous measurements of sporadic fluxes are summarized in Figure 1; the values are given as a total number of meteoroids striking the earth in one year to a given limiting mass. The Gr n et al. (1985) flux model is included in the figure for reference. Fluxes for sporadic meteoroids impacting the Earth have been calculated for objects in the centimeter size range using Super-Schmidt observations (Hawkins & Upton, 1958); this study used about 300 meteors, and used only the physical area of overlap of the cameras at 90 km to calculate the flux, corrected for angular speed of meteors, since a large angular speed reduces the maximum brightness of the meteor on the film, and radiant elevation, which takes into account the geometric reduction in flux when the meteors are not perpendicular to the horizontal. They bring up corrections for both partial trails (which tends to increase the collecting area) and incomplete overlap at heights other than 90 km (which tends to decrease it) as effects that will affect the flux, but estimated that the two effects cancelled one another. Halliday et al. (1984) calculated the flux of meteorite-dropping fireballs with fragment masses greater than 50 g, over the physical area of sky accessible to the MORP fireball cameras, counting only observations in clear weather. In the micron size range, LDEF measurements of small craters on spacecraft have been used to estimate the flux (Love & Brownlee, 1993); here the physical area of the detector is well known, but the masses depend strongly on the unknown velocity distribution. In the same size range, Thomas & Netherway (1989) used the narrow-beam radar at Jindalee to calculate the flux of sporadics. In between these very large and very small sizes, a number of video and photographic observations were reduced by Ceplecha (2001). These fluxes were calculated (details are given in Ceplecha, 1988) taking the Halliday et al. (1984) MORP fireball fluxes, slightly corrected in mass, as a calibration, and adjusting the flux of small cameras to overlap with the number/mass relation from that work.

Plumbing the global carbon cycle: Integrating inland waters into the terrestrial carbon budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, J.J.; Prairie, Y.T.; Caraco, N.F.; McDowell, W.H.; Tranvik, L.J.; Striegl, Robert G.; Duarte, C.M.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Downing, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Melack, J.

2007-01-01

Because freshwater covers such a small fraction of the Earth's surface area, inland freshwater ecosystems (particularly lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) have rarely been considered as potentially important quantitative components of the carbon cycle at either global or regional scales. By taking published estimates of gas exchange, sediment accumulation, and carbon transport for a variety of aquatic systems, we have constructed a budget for the role of inland water ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. Our analysis conservatively estimates that inland waters annually receive, from a combination of background and anthropogenically altered sources, on the order of 1.9 Pg C y-1 from the terrestrial landscape, of which about 0.2 is buried in aquatic sediments, at least 0.8 (possibly much more) is returned to the atmosphere as gas exchange while the remaining 0.9 Pg y-1 is delivered to the oceans, roughly equally as inorganic and organic carbon. Thus, roughly twice as much C enters inland aquatic systems from land as is exported from land to the sea. Over prolonged time net carbon fluxes in aquatic systems tend to be greater per unit area than in much of the surrounding land. Although their area is small, these freshwater aquatic systems can affect regional C balances. Further, the inclusion of inland, freshwater ecosystems provides useful insight about the storage, oxidation and transport of terrestrial C, and may warrant a revision of how the modern net C sink on land is described. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Analysis of remote sensing data for evaluation of vegetation resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1970-01-01

Research has centered around: (1) completion of a study on the use of remote sensing techniques as an aid to multiple use management; (2) determination of the information transfer at various image resolution levels for wildland areas; and (3) determination of the value of small scale multiband, multidate photography for the analysis of vegetation resources. In addition, a substantial effort was made to upgrade the automatic image classification and spectral signature acquisition capabilities of the laboratory. It was found that: (1) Remote sensing techniques should be useful in multiple use management to provide a first-cut analysis of an area. (2) Imagery with 400-500 feet ground resolvable distance (GRD), such as that expected from ERTS-1, should allow discriminations to be made between woody vegetation, grassland, and water bodies with approximately 80% accuracy. (3) Barley and wheat acreages in Maricopa County, Arizona could be estimated with acceptable accuracies using small scale multiband, multidate photography. Sampling errors for acreages of wheat, barley, small grains (wheat and barley combined), and all cropland were 13%, 11%, 8% and 3% respectively.

SimAlba: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to the Analysis of Health Inequalities

PubMed Central

Campbell, Malcolm; Ballas, Dimitris

2016-01-01

This paper presents applied geographical research based on a spatial microsimulation model, SimAlba, aimed at estimating geographically sensitive health variables in Scotland. SimAlba has been developed in order to answer a variety of “what-if” policy questions pertaining to health policy in Scotland. Using the SimAlba model, it is possible to simulate the distributions of previously unknown variables at the small area level such as smoking, alcohol consumption, mental well-being, and obesity. The SimAlba microdataset has been created by combining Scottish Health Survey and Census data using a deterministic reweighting spatial microsimulation algorithm developed for this purpose. The paper presents SimAlba outputs for Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, and examines the spatial distribution of the simulated variables for small geographical areas in Glasgow as well as the effects on individuals of different policy scenario outcomes. In simulating previously unknown spatial data, a wealth of new perspectives can be examined and explored. This paper explores a small set of those potential avenues of research and shows the power of spatial microsimulation modeling in an urban context. PMID:27818989

The evolution of mapping habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina): A comparison of photo-interpreted, Landsat-based, and lidar-based habitat maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackers, Steven H.; Davis, Raymond J.; Olsen, K.; Dugger, Catherine

2015-01-01

Wildlife habitat mapping has evolved at a rapid pace over the last few decades. Beginning with simple, often subjective, hand-drawn maps, habitat mapping now involves complex species distribution models (SDMs) using mapped predictor variables derived from remotely sensed data. For species that inhabit large geographic areas, remote sensing technology is often essential for producing range wide maps. Habitat monitoring for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), whose geographic covers about 23 million ha, is based on SDMs that use Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to create forest vegetation data layers using gradient nearest neighbor (GNN) methods. Vegetation data layers derived from GNN are modeled relationships between forest inventory plot data, climate and topographic data, and the spectral signatures acquired by the satellite. When used as predictor variables for SDMs, there is some transference of the GNN modeling error to the final habitat map.Recent increases in the use of light detection and ranging (lidar) data, coupled with the need to produce spatially accurate and detailed forest vegetation maps have spurred interest in its use for SDMs and habitat mapping. Instead of modeling predictor variables from remotely sensed spectral data, lidar provides direct measurements of vegetation height for use in SDMs. We expect a SDM habitat map produced from directly measured predictor variables to be more accurate than one produced from modeled predictors.We used maximum entropy (Maxent) SDM modeling software to compare predictive performance and estimates of habitat area between Landsat-based and lidar-based northern spotted owl SDMs and habitat maps. We explored the differences and similarities between these maps, and to a pre-existing aerial photo-interpreted habitat map produced by local wildlife biologists. The lidar-based map had the highest predictive performance based on 10 bootstrapped replicate models (AUC = 0.809 ± 0.011), but the performance of the Landsat-based map was within acceptable limits (AUC = 0.717 ± 0.021). As is common with photo-interpreted maps, there was no accuracy assessment available for comparison. The photo-interpreted map produced the highest and lowest estimates of habitat area, depending on which habitat classes were included (nesting, roosting, and foraging habitat = 9962 ha, nesting habitat only = 6036 ha). The Landsat-based map produced an estimate of habitat area that was within this range (95% CI: 6679–9592 ha), while the lidar-based map produced an area estimate similar to what was interpreted by local wildlife biologists as nesting (i.e., high quality) habitat using aerial imagery (95% CI: 5453–7216). Confidence intervals of habitat area estimates from the SDMs based on Landsat and lidar overlapped.We concluded that both Landsat- and lidar-based SDMs produced reasonable maps and area estimates for northern spotted owl habitat within the study area. The lidar-based map was more precise and spatially similar to what local wildlife biologists considered spotted owl nesting habitat. The Landsat-based map provided a less precise spatial representation of habitat within the relatively small geographic confines of the study area, but habitat area estimates were similar to both the photo-interpreted and lidar-based maps.Photo-interpreted maps are time consuming to produce, subjective in nature, and difficult to replicate. SDMs provide a framework for efficiently producing habitat maps that can be replicated as habitat conditions change over time, provided that comparable remotely sensed data are available. When the SDM uses predictor variables extracted from lidar data, it can produce a habitat map that is both accurate and useful at large and small spatial scales. In comparison, SDMs using Landsat-based data are more appropriate for large scale analyses of amounts and general spatial patterns of habitat at regional scales.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Tierney, Edward F.; Burrows, Nilka R.; Barker, Lawrence E.; Beckles, Gloria L.; Boyle, James P.; Cadwell, Betsy L.; Kirtland, Karen A.; Thompson, Theodore J.

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. Methods A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. Results The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%–18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. Conclusions These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%–18.2%). PMID:23939364

Spectral estimates of net radiation and soil heat flux

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daughtry, C.S.T.; Kustas, William P.; Moran, M.S.; Pinter, P. J.; Jackson, R. D.; Brown, P.W.; Nichols, W.D.; Gay, L.W.

1990-01-01

Conventional methods of measuring surface energy balance are point measurements and represent only a small area. Remote sensing offers a potential means of measuring outgoing fluxes over large areas at the spatial resolution of the sensor. The objective of this study was to estimate net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G) using remotely sensed multispectral data acquired from an aircraft over large agricultural fields. Ground-based instruments measured Rn and G at nine locations along the flight lines. Incoming fluxes were also measured by ground-based instruments. Outgoing fluxes were estimated using remotely sensed data. Remote Rn, estimated as the algebraic sum of incoming and outgoing fluxes, slightly underestimated Rn measured by the ground-based net radiometers. The mean absolute errors for remote Rn minus measured Rn were less than 7%. Remote G, estimated as a function of a spectral vegetation index and remote Rn, slightly overestimated measured G; however, the mean absolute error for remote G was 13%. Some of the differences between measured and remote values of Rn and G are associated with differences in instrument designs and measurement techniques. The root mean square error for available energy (Rn - G) was 12%. Thus, methods using both ground-based and remotely sensed data can provide reliable estimates of the available energy which can be partitioned into sensible and latent heat under nonadvective conditions. ?? 1990.

Quantitative Estimation of Land Surface Characteristic Parameters and Actual Evapotranspiration in the Nagqu River Basin over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, L.; Ma, Y.; Ma, W.; Zou, M.; Hu, Y.

2016-12-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle in the Tibetan Plateau. It is controlled by many hydrological and meteorological factors. Therefore, it is of great significance to estimate ETa accurately and continuously. It is also drawing much attention of scientific community to understand land surface parameters and land-atmosphere water exchange processes in small watershed-scale areas. Based on in-situ meteorological data in the Nagqu river basin and surrounding regions, the main meteorological factors affecting the evaporation process were quantitatively analyzed and the point-scale ETa estimation models in the study area were successfully built. On the other hand, multi-source satellite data (such as SPOT, MODIS, FY-2C) were used to derive the surface characteristics in the river basin. A time series processing technique was applied to remove cloud cover and reconstruct data series. Then improved land surface albedo, improved downward shortwave radiation flux and reconstructed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were coupled into the topographical enhanced surface energy balance system to estimate ETa. The model-estimated results were compared with those ETa values determined by combinatory method. The results indicated that the model-estimated ETa agreed well with in-situ measurements with correlation coefficient, mean bias error and root mean square error of 0.836, 0.087 and 0.140 mm/h respectively.

Geography of Adolescent Obesity in the U.S., 2007-2011.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Raskind, Ilana G; Van Dyke, Miriam E; Matthews, Stephen A; Cook-Smith, Jessica N

2016-12-01

Obesity remains a significant threat to the current and long-term health of U.S. adolescents. The authors developed county-level estimates of adolescent obesity for the contiguous U.S., and then explored the association between 23 conceptually derived area-based correlates of adolescent obesity and ecologic obesity prevalence. Multilevel small area regression methods applied to the 2007 and 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health produced county-level obesity prevalence estimates for children aged 10-17 years. Exploratory multivariable Bayesian regression estimated the cross-sectional association between nutrition, activity, and macrosocial characteristics of counties and states, and county-level obesity prevalence. All analyses were conducted in 2015. Adolescent obesity varies geographically with clusters of high prevalence in the Deep South and Southern Appalachian regions. Geographic disparities and clustering in observed data are largely explained by hypothesized area-based variables. In adjusted models, activity environment, but not nutrition environment variables were associated with county-level obesity prevalence. County violent crime was associated with higher obesity, whereas recreational facility density was associated with lower obesity. Measures of the macrosocial and relational domain, including community SES, community health, and social marginalization, were the strongest correlates of county-level obesity. County-level estimates of adolescent obesity demonstrate notable geographic disparities, which are largely explained by conceptually derived area-based contextual measures. This ecologic exploratory study highlights the importance of taking a multidimensional approach to understanding the social and community context in which adolescents make obesity-relevant behavioral choices. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the Characterized Tsunami Source Model considering the Complicated Shape of Tsunami Source by Using the observed waveforms of GPS Buoys in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, S.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami disaster, the delay of understanding damage situation increased the human damage. To solve this problem, it is important to search the severe damaged areas. The tsunami numerical modeling is useful to estimate damages and the accuracy of simulation depends on the tsunami source. Seto and Takahashi (2017) proposed a method to estimate the characterized tsunami source model by using the limited observed data of GPS buoys. The model consists of Large slip zone (LSZ), Super large slip zone (SLSZ) and background rupture zone (BZ) as the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (below COGJ) reported after the Tohoku tsunami. At the beginning of this method, the rectangular fault model is assumed based on the seismic magnitude and hypocenter reported right after an earthquake. By using the fault model, tsunami propagation is simulated numerically, and the fault model is improved after comparing the computed data with the observed data repeatedly. In the comparison, correlation coefficient and regression coefficient are used as indexes. They are calculated with the observed and the computed tsunami wave profiles. This repetition is conducted to get the two coefficients close to 1.0, which makes the precise of the fault model higher. However, it was indicated as the improvement that the model did not examine a complicated shape of tsunami source. In this study, we proposed an improved model to examine the complicated shape. COGJ(2012) assumed that possible tsunami source region in the Nankai trough consisted of the several thousands small faults. And, we use these small faults to estimate the targeted tsunami source in this model. Therefore, we can estimate the complicated tsunami source by using these small faults. The estimation of BZ is carried out as a first step, and LSZ and SLSZ are estimated next as same as the previous model. The proposed model by using GPS buoy was applied for a tsunami scenario in the Nankai Trough. As a result, the final estimated location of LSZ and SLSZ in BZ are estimated well.

Comparing the accuracy and precision of three techniques used for estimating missing landmarks when reconstructing fossil hominin crania.

PubMed

Neeser, Rudolph; Ackermann, Rebecca Rogers; Gain, James

2009-09-01

Various methodological approaches have been used for reconstructing fossil hominin remains in order to increase sample sizes and to better understand morphological variation. Among these, morphometric quantitative techniques for reconstruction are increasingly common. Here we compare the accuracy of three approaches--mean substitution, thin plate splines, and multiple linear regression--for estimating missing landmarks of damaged fossil specimens. Comparisons are made varying the number of missing landmarks, sample sizes, and the reference species of the population used to perform the estimation. The testing is performed on landmark data from individuals of Homo sapiens, Pan troglodytes and Gorilla gorilla, and nine hominin fossil specimens. Results suggest that when a small, same-species fossil reference sample is available to guide reconstructions, thin plate spline approaches perform best. However, if no such sample is available (or if the species of the damaged individual is uncertain), estimates of missing morphology based on a single individual (or even a small sample) of close taxonomic affinity are less accurate than those based on a large sample of individuals drawn from more distantly related extant populations using a technique (such as a regression method) able to leverage the information (e.g., variation/covariation patterning) contained in this large sample. Thin plate splines also show an unexpectedly large amount of error in estimating landmarks, especially over large areas. Recommendations are made for estimating missing landmarks under various scenarios. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Terrain feature recognition for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery employing spatial attributes of targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iisaka, Joji; Sakurai-Amano, Takako

1994-08-01

This paper describes an integrated approach to terrain feature detection and several methods to estimate spatial information from SAR (synthetic aperture radar) imagery. Spatial information of image features as well as spatial association are key elements in terrain feature detection. After applying a small feature preserving despeckling operation, spatial information such as edginess, texture (smoothness), region-likeliness and line-likeness of objects, target sizes, and target shapes were estimated. Then a trapezoid shape fuzzy membership function was assigned to each spatial feature attribute. Fuzzy classification logic was employed to detect terrain features. Terrain features such as urban areas, mountain ridges, lakes and other water bodies as well as vegetated areas were successfully identified from a sub-image of a JERS-1 SAR image. In the course of shape analysis, a quantitative method was developed to classify spatial patterns by expanding a spatial pattern through the use of a series of pattern primitives.

Estimation of pumpage from a riverside well at the lower reaches of the Songhua River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, K. N.; Hu, L. T.; Zhang, M. L.; Liu, X. M.

2017-08-01

As a kind of vital water resources exploitation mode, riverside pumping has the important advantage of maintaining the stability of water supply and purifying surface water quality. It is of great significance to estimate the pumpage from a riverside well for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the area. In this article, the method of image and Girinskii’s potential function are used to derive the pumpage. A case study in the Jamusi City shows that the pumpage from a riverside well varies from 9000 to 15000 m3/d. The sensitivity of factors (h0 , K, Smax and rw. ) is analysed, indicating that the influence degree from large to small is h0, K, Smax, and rw. Besides, h0, K, Smax are far greater than rw . It is hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical reference for the rational utilization of groundwater in the areas near the rivers.

Fish Habitat and Fish Populations in a Southern Appalachian Watershed before and after Hurricane Hugo

Treesearch

C. Andrew Dolloff; Patricia A. Flebbe; Michael D. Owen

1994-01-01

Habitat features and relative abundance of all fish species were estimated in 8.4 km of a small mountain stream system before and 11 months after Hurricane Hugo crossed the southern Appalachians in September 1989. There was no change in the total amount (area) of each habitat type but the total number of habitat units decreased and average size and depth of habitat...

A Multiple Resource Inventory of Delaware Using an Airborne Profiling Laser

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross; Short, Austin; Valenti, Michael A.; Keller, Cherry; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An airborne profiling laser is used to monitor multiple resources related to landscape structure, both natural and man-made, across regions encompassing hundreds of thousands of hectares. A small, lightweight, inexpensive airborne profiling laser is used to inventory Delaware forests, to estimate impervious surface area statewide, and to locate potentially Suitable Delmarva Fox Squirrel (Scrotum niger cinereus) habitat. Merchantable volume estimates are within 14% of US Forest Service estimates at the county level and within 4% statewide. Total above-ground dry biomass estimates are within 19% of USES estimates at the county level and within 16% statewide. Mature forest stands suitable for reintroduction of the Delmarva Fox Squirrel, an endangered species historically endemic to the eastern shores of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, are identified and mapped along the laser transacts. Intersection lengths with various types of impervious surface (roofs, concrete/asphalt) and open water are tallied to estimate percent and areal coverage statewide, by stratum and county. Laser estimates of open water are within 7% of photointerpreted GIS estimates at the county level and within 3% of the GIS at the state level.

Deviation from Power Law Behavior in Landslide Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Lan, H.; Wu, Y.

2013-12-01

Power law distribution of magnitude is widely observed in many natural hazards (e.g., earthquake, floods, tornadoes, and forest fires). Landslide is unique as the size distribution of landslide is characterized by a power law decrease with a rollover in the small size end. Yet, the emergence of the rollover, i.e., the deviation from power law behavior for small size landslides, remains a mystery. In this contribution, we grouped the forces applied on landslide bodies into two categories: 1) the forces proportional to the volume of failure mass (gravity and friction), and 2) the forces proportional to the area of failure surface (cohesion). Failure occurs when the forces proportional to volume exceed the forces proportional to surface area. As such, given a certain mechanical configuration, the failure volume to failure surface area ratio must exceed a corresponding threshold to guarantee a failure. Assuming all landslides share a uniform shape, which means the volume to surface area ratio of landslide regularly increase with the landslide volume, a cutoff of landslide volume distribution in the small size end can be defined. However, in realistic landslide phenomena, where heterogeneities of landslide shape and mechanical configuration are existent, a simple cutoff of landslide volume distribution does not exist. The stochasticity of landslide shape introduce a probability distribution of the volume to surface area ratio with regard to landslide volume, with which the probability that the volume to surface ratio exceed the threshold can be estimated regarding values of landslide volume. An experiment based on empirical data showed that this probability can induce the power law distribution of landslide volume roll down in the small size end. We therefore proposed that the constraints on the failure volume to failure surface area ratio together with the heterogeneity of landslide geometry and mechanical configuration attribute for the deviation from power law behavior in landslide phenomenon. Figure shows that a rollover of landslide size distribution in the small size end is produced as the probability for V/S (the failure volume to failure surface ratio of landslide) exceeding the mechanical threshold applied to the power law distribution of landslide volume.

Estimating cigarette tax avoidance and evasion: evidence from a national sample of littered packs.

PubMed

Barker, Dianne C; Wang, Shu; Merriman, David; Crosby, Andrew; Resnick, Elissa A; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

A number of recent studies document the proportion of all cigarette packs that are 'contraband' using discarded packs to measure tax avoidance and evasion, which we call tax non-compliance. To date, academic studies using discarded packs focused on relatively small geographical areas such as a city or a neighbourhood. We visited 160 communities across 38 US states in 2012 and collected data from littered cigarette packs as part of the State and Community Tobacco Control (SCTC) Research Initiative and the Bridging the Gap Community Obesity Measures Project (BTG-COMP). Data collectors were trained in a previously tested littered pack data collection protocol. Field teams collected 2116 packs with cellophane across 132 communities. We estimate a national tax non-compliance rate of 18.5% with considerable variation across regions. Suburban areas had lower non-compliance than urban areas as well as areas with high and low median household income areas compared with middle income areas. We present the first academic national study of tax non-compliance using littered cigarette packs. We demonstrate the feasibility of meaningful large-scale data collection using this methodology and document considerable variation in tax non-compliance across areas, suggesting that both policy differences and geography may be important in control of illicit tobacco use. Given the geography of open borders among countries with varying tax rates, this simple methodology may be appropriate to estimate tax non-compliance in countries that use tax stamps or other pack markings, such as health warnings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers

2012-01-01

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Uncertainty analysis of practical structural health monitoring systems currently employed for tall buildings consisting of small number of sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirai, Kenta; Mita, Akira

2016-04-01

Because of social background, such as repeated large earthquakes and cheating in design and construction, structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are getting strong attention. The SHM systems are in a practical phase. An SHM system consisting of small number of sensors has been introduced to 6 tall buildings in Shinjuku area. Including them, there are 2 major issues in the SHM systems consisting of small number of sensors. First, optimal system number of sensors and the location are not well-defined. In the practice, system placement is determined based on rough prediction and experience. Second, there are some uncertainties in estimation results by the SHM systems. Thus, the purpose of this research is to provide useful information for increasing reliability of SHM system and to improve estimation results based on uncertainty analysis of the SHM systems. The important damage index used here is the inter-story drift angle. The uncertainty considered here are number of sensors, earthquake motion characteristics, noise in data, error between numerical model and real building, nonlinearity of parameter. Then I have analyzed influence of each factor to estimation accuracy. The analysis conducted here will help to decide sensor system design considering valance of cost and accuracy. Because of constraint on the number of sensors, estimation results by the SHM system has tendency to provide smaller values. To overcome this problem, a compensation algorithm was discussed and presented. The usefulness of this compensation method was demonstrated for 40 story S and RC building models with nonlinear response.

Two-dimensional echo-cardiographic estimation of left atrial volume and volume load in patients with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, A; Linde, L M; Imachi, T; Mizuno, H; Akutsu, H

1983-12-01

To estimate the left atrial volume (LAV) and pulmonary blood flow in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), we employed two-dimensional echocardiography (TDE). The LAV was measured in dimensions other than those obtained in conventional M-mode echocardiography (M-mode echo). Mathematical and geometrical models for LAV calculation using the standard long-axis, short-axis and apical four-chamber planes were devised and found to be reliable in a preliminary study using porcine heart preparations, although length (10%), area (20%) and volume (38%) were significantly and consistently underestimated with echocardiography. Those models were then applied and correlated with angiocardiograms (ACG) in 25 consecutive patients with suspected CHD. In terms of the estimation of the absolute LAV, accuracy seemed commensurate with the number of the dimensions measured. The correlation between data obtained by TDE and ACG varied with changing hemodynamics such as cardiac cycle, absolute LAV and presence or absence of volume load. The left atrium was found to become spherical and progressively underestimated with TDE at ventricular endsystole, in larger LAV and with increased volume load. Since this tendency became less pronounced in measuring additional dimensions, reliable estimation of the absolute LAV and volume load was possible when 2 or 3 dimensions were measured. Among those calculation models depending on 2 or 3 dimensional measurements, there was only a small difference in terms of accuracy and predictability, although algorithm used varied from one model to another. This suggests that accurate cross-sectional area measurement is critically important for volume estimation rather than any particular algorithm involved. Cross-sectional area measurement by TDE integrated into a three dimensional equivalent allowed a reliable estimate of the LAV or volume load in a variety of hemodynamic situations where M-mode echo was not reliable.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Estimates of fertility in Bangladesh.

PubMed

D'souza, S; Rahman, S

1978-01-01

The attempt is made to estimate fertility levels in Bangladesh on the basis of data collected during the 1974 Census. In the 1st section attention is directed to providing an overall picture of the demographic situation in the country. Comparisons between the 1961 and 1974 data demonstrates that the 1974 Census data provide consistent results. Factors such as the degree of urbanization, literacy and economic participation rates--considered as indicators of development--all seem to show little progress during the intercensal period. The use of child/women ratios (CWRs) provides plausible evidence of the likelihood of a fertility decline. A decline in CWR values is small for "all areas" but a marked decline can be noted for "urban areas." The recorded mean number of children is less in 1974 than in 1961 for women under age 35 whereas for the older groups the 1974 Census shows higher mean numbers. The Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) data result for the total fertility rate of 6.58 is very close to that estimated for the 1974 Census--6.59. The reverse survival method also indicates that birthrates have been lower during the 1969-1974 period.

Application of a rule-based model to estimate mercury exchange for three background biomes in the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, J.S.; Weisberg, P.J.; Pillai, R.; Ericksen, J.A.; Kuiken, T.; Lindberg, S.E.; Zhang, H.; Rytuba, J.J.; Gustin, M.S.

2009-01-01

Ecosystems that have low mercury (Hg) concentrations (i.e., not enriched or impactedbygeologic or anthropogenic processes) cover most of the terrestrial surface area of the earth yet their role as a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg is uncertain. Here we use empirical data to develop a rule-based model implemented within a geographic information system framework to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of Hg flux for semiarid deserts, grasslands, and deciduous forests representing 45% of the continental United States. This exercise provides an indication of whether these ecosystems are a net source or sink for atmospheric Hg as well as a basis for recommendation of data to collect in future field sampling campaigns. Results indicated that soil alone was a small net source of atmospheric Hg and that emitted Hg could be accounted for based on Hg input by wet deposition. When foliar assimilation and wet deposition are added to the area estimate of soil Hg flux these biomes are a sink for atmospheric Hg. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Stormwater quality processes for three land-use areas in Broward County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattraw, H.C.; Miller, Robert A.

1981-01-01

Systematic collection and chemical analysis of stormwater runoff samples from three small urban areas in Broward County, Florida, were obtained between 1974 and 1977. Thirty or more runoff-constituent loads were computed for each of the homogeneous land-use areas. The areas sampled were single family residential, highway, and a commercial shopping center. Rainfall , runoff, and nutrient and metal analyses were stored in a data-management system. The data-management system permitted computation of loads, publication of basic-data reports and the interface of environmental and load information with a comprehensive statistical analysis system. Seven regression models relating water quality loads to characteristics of peak discharge, antecedent conditions, season, storm duration and rainfall intensity were constructed for each of the three sites. Total water-quality loads were computed for the collection period by summing loads for individual storms. Loads for unsampled storms were estimated by using regression models and records of storm precipitation. Loadings, pounds per day per acre of hydraulically effective impervious area, were computed for the three land-use types. Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total residue loadings were highest in the residential area. Chemical oxygen demand and total lead loadings were highest in the commercial area. Loadings of atmospheric fallout on each watershed were estimated by bulk precipitation samples collected at the highway and commercial site. (USGS)

AUTOMATED UTILITY SERVICE AREA ASSESSMENT UNDER EMERGENCY CONDITIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. TOOLE; S. LINGER

2001-01-01

All electric utilities serve power to their customers through a variety of functional levels, notably substations. The majority of these components consist of distribution substations operating at lower voltages while a small fraction are transmission substations. There is an associated geographical area that encompasses customers who are served, defined as the service area. Analysis of substation service areas is greatly complicated by several factors: distribution networks are often highly interconnected which allows a multitude of possible switching operations; also, utilities dynamically alter the network topology in order to respond to emergency events. As a result, the service area for amore » substation can change radically. A utility will generally attempt to minimize the number of customers outaged by switching effected loads to alternate substations. In this manner, all or a portion of a disabled substation's load may be served by one or more adjacent substations. This paper describes a suite of analytical tools developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which address the problem of determining how a utility might respond to such emergency events. The estimated outage areas derived using the tools are overlaid onto other geographical and electrical layers in a geographic information system (GIS) software application. The effects of a power outage on a population, other infrastructures, or other physical features, can be inferred by the proximity of these features to the estimated outage area.« less

Magnitude and frequency of floods in small drainage basins in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Harenberg, W.A.; Anderson, J.M.

1973-01-01

A method is presented in this report for determining magnitude and frequency of floods on streams with drainage areas between 0.5 and 200 square miles. The method relates basin characteristics, including drainage area, percentage of forest cover, percentage of water area, latitude, and longitude, with peak flow characteristics. Regression equations for each of eight regions are presented for determination of QIQ/ the peak discharge, which, on the average, will be exceeded once in 10 years. Peak flows, Q25 and Q 50 , can then be estimated from Q25/Q10 and Q-50/Q-10 ratios developed for each region. Nomographs are included which solve the equations for basins between 1 and 50 square miles. The regional regression equations were developed using multiple regression techniques. Annual peaks for 303 sites were analyzed in the study. These included all records on unregulated streams with drainage areas less than about 500 square miles with 10 years or more of record or which could readily be extended to 10 years on the basis of nearby streams. The log-Pearson Type III method as modified and a digital computer were employed to estimate magnitude and frequency of floods for each of the 303 gaged sites. A large number of physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each of the gaged sites. The multiple regression method was then applied to determine the equations relating the floodflows and the most significant basin characteristics. For convenience of the users, several equations were simplified and some complex characteristics were deleted at the sacrifice of some increase in the standard error. Standard errors of estimate and many other statistical data were computed in the analysis process and are available in the Boise district office files. The analysis showed that QIQ was the best defined and most practical index flood for determination of the Q25 and 0,50 flood estimates.Regression equations are not developed because of poor definition for areas which total about 20,000 square miles, most of which are in southern Idaho. These areas are described in the report to prevent use of regression equations where they do not apply. They include urbanized areas, streams affected by regulation or diversion by works of man, unforested areas, streams with gaining or losing reaches, streams draining alluvial valleys and the Snake Plain, intense thunderstorm areas, and scattered areas where records indicate recurring floods which depart from the regional equations. Maximum flows of record and basin locations are summarized in tables and maps. The analysis indicates deficiencies in data exist. To improve knowledge regarding flood characteristics in poorly defined areas, the following data-collection programs are recommended. Gages should be operated on a few selected small streams for an extended period to define floods at long recurrence intervals. Crest-stage gages should be operated in representative basins in urbanized areas, newly developed irrigated areas and grasslands, and in unforested areas. Unusual floods should continue to be measured at miscellaneous sites on regulated streams and in intense thunderstorm-prone areas. The relationship between channel geometry and floodflow characteristics should be investigated as an alternative or supplement to operation of gaging stations. Documentation of historic flood data from newspapers and other sources would improve the basic flood-data base.

Common mental disorders, neighbourhood income inequality and income deprivation: small-area multilevel analysis

PubMed Central

Fone, David; Greene, Giles; Farewell, Daniel; White, James; Kelly, Mark; Dunstan, Frank

2013-01-01

Background Common mental disorders are more prevalent in areas of high neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation but whether the prevalence varies with neighbourhood income inequality is not known. Aims To investigate the hypothesis that the interaction between small-area income deprivation and income inequality was associated with individual mental health. Method Multilevel analysis of population data from the Welsh Health Survey, 2003/04–2010. A total of 88 623 respondents aged 18–74 years were nested within 50 587 households within 1887 lower super output areas (neighbourhoods) and 22 unitary authorities (regions), linked to the Gini coefficient (income inequality) and the per cent of households living in poverty (income deprivation). Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Inventory MHI-5 as a discrete variable and as a ‘case’ of common mental disorder. Results High neighbourhood income inequality was associated with better mental health in low-deprivation neighbourhoods after adjusting for individual and household risk factors (parameter estimate +0.70 (s.e. = 0.33), P = 0.036; odds ratio (OR) for common mental disorder case 0.92, 95% CI 0.88–0.97). Income inequality at regional level was significantly associated with poorer mental health (parameter estimate -1.35 (s.e. = 0.54), P = 0.012; OR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.22). Conclusions The associations between common mental disorders, income inequality and income deprivation are complex. Income inequality at neighbourhood level is less important than income deprivation as a risk factor for common mental disorders. The adverse effect of income inequality starts to operate at the larger regional level. PMID:23470284

Applications of remote sensing to hydrologic planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loats, H., Jr.; Fowler, T.; Castruccio, P.

1978-01-01

The transfer of LANDSAT remote sensing technology from the research sector to user operational applications requires demonstration of the utility and accuracy of LANDSAT data in solving real problems. This report describes such a demonstration project in the area of water resources, specifically the estimation of non-point source pollutant loads. Non-point source pollutants were estimated from land cover data from LANDSAT images. Classification accuracies for three small watersheds were above 95%. Land cover was converted to pollutant loads for a fourth watershed through the use of coefficients relating significant pollutants to land use and storm runoff volume. These data were input into a simulator model which simulated runoff from average rainfall. The result was the estimation of monthly expected pollutant loads for the 17 subbasins comprising the Magothy watershed.

Detecting structural heat losses with mobile infrared thermography. Part IV. Estimating quantitative heat loss at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munis, R.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Bush, M.A.

1976-09-01

During the winter of 1973-74 a mobile infrared thermography system was used to survey campus buildings at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire. Both qualitative and quantitative data are presented regarding heat flow through a small area of a wall of one brick dormitory building before and after installation of aluminum reflectors between radiators and the wall. These data were used to estimate annual cost savings for 22 buildings of similar construction having aluminum reflectors installed behind 1100 radiators. The data were then compared with the actual savings which were calculated from condensate meter data. The discrepancy between estimated and actualmore » annual cost savings is explained in detail along with all assumptions required for these calculations.« less

Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

2015-01-01

Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004) = 0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002) = 0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012) = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002) = 12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically sustainable.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). LACIE phase 1 and phase 2 accuracy assessment. [Kansas, Texas, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The initial CAS estimates, which were made for each month from April through August, were considerably higher than the USDA/SRS estimates. This was attributed to: (1) the practice of considering bare ground as potential wheat and counting it as wheat; (2) overestimation of the wheat proportions in segments having only a small amount of wheat; and (3) the classification of confusion crops as wheat. At the end of the season most of the segments were reworked using improved methods based on experience gained during the season. In particular, new procedures were developed to solve the three problems listed above. These and other improvements used in the rework experiment resulted in at-harvest estimates that were much closer to the USDA/SRS estimates than those obtained during the regular season.

A novel use of the caesium-137 technique to estimate human interference and historical water level in a Mediterranean Temporary Pond.

PubMed

Foteinis, Spyros; Mpizoura, Katerina; Panagopoulos, Giorgos; Chatzisymeon, Efthalia; Kallithrakas-Kontos, Nikolaos; Manutsoglu, Emmanouil

2014-01-01

The sustainability of, and the effects of human pressures on, Omalos Mediterranean Temporary Pond (MTP), Chanea, Greece was assessed. The (137)Cs technique was used to identify alleged anthropogenic interference (excavation) in the studied area. It was found that about one third of the ponds bed surface material had been removed and disposed of on the northeast edge, confirming unplanned excavations that took place in the MTP area some years ago. Nonetheless, five years after the excavation, the MTP's ecosystem (flora and fauna) had recovered, which indicates that these small ecosystems are resilient to direct human pressures, like excavations. Moreover, with the (137)Cs technique it was possible to identify the historical water level of Omalos MTP, when the fallout from the Chernobyl accident reached this area, in May of 1986. Therefore, the (137)Cs technique can be useful in the identification of the historical water level of small MTPs and other ephemeral water bodies. Applications include the verification and validation of hydrological models. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delineation of small reservoirs using radar imagery in a semi-arid environment: A case study in the upper east region of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annor, F. O.; van de Giesen, N.; Liebe, J.; van de Zaag, P.; Tilmant, A.; Odai, S. N.

Small reservoirs serve many people living in semi-arid environments. Water stored in these reservoirs is used to supplement rainfed agriculture, allow for dry season irrigated agriculture and ensure the availability of water for domestic purposes. In order to manage the water effectively for competing uses, the actual storage of these reservoirs needs to be known. Recent attempts to delineate these reservoirs using remote sensing with Landsat imagery have been successful, especially in the upper east region of Ghana, West Africa. This paper shows that radar images (ENVISAT ASAR) can be used to provide similar information all year-round. Radar images have as an important advantage that they are not impaired by cloud cover and thus can be used during the rainy season. Another advantage of radar images is that images taken during night time are usable. The paper compares satellite derived data with field measurements of 21 small reservoirs. Whereas ENVISAT images on the average tend to overestimate the surface areas of small reservoirs, in certain reservoirs these areas are systematically under-estimated due to the shallow tail-ends of reservoirs that tend to have reed vegetation. These cannot be readily distinguished from the surrounding vegetation outside the reservoirs. This paper therefore provides a proof of concept of the monitoring of small reservoir volumes by radar imagery.

Enumeration of sex workers in the central business district of Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Kimani, Joshua; McKinnon, Lyle R; Wachihi, Charles; Kusimba, Judith; Gakii, Gloria; Birir, Sarah; Muthui, Mercy; Kariri, Anthony; Muriuki, Festus K; Muraguri, Nicholas; Musyoki, Helgar; Ball, T Blake; Kaul, Rupert; Gelmon, Lawrence

2013-01-01

Accurate program planning for populations most at risk for HIV/STI acquisition requires knowledge of the size and location where these populations can best be reached. To obtain this information for sex workers operating at 137 hotspots in the central business district (CBD) in Nairobi, Kenya, we utilized a combined mapping and capture-recapture enumeration exercise. The majority of identified hotspots in this study were bars. Based on this exercise, we estimate that 6,904 male and female sex workers (95% confidence intervals, 6690 and 7118) were working nightly in the Nairobi CBD in April 2009. Wide ranges of captures per spot were obtained, suggesting that relatively few hot spots (18%) contain a relatively high proportion of the area's sex workers (65%). We provide geographic data including relatively short distances from hotspots to our dedicated sex worker outreach program in the CBD (mean<1 km), and clustering of hotspots within a relatively small area. Given the size covered and areas where sex work is likely taking place in Nairobi, the estimate is several times lower than what would be obtained if the entire metropolitan area was enumerated. These results have important practical and policy implications for enhancing HIV/STI prevention efforts.

Demolition waste generation for development of a regional management chain model.

PubMed

Bernardo, Miguel; Gomes, Marta Castilho; de Brito, Jorge

2016-03-01

Even though construction and demolition waste (CDW) is the bulkiest waste stream, its estimation and composition in specific regions still faces major difficulties. Therefore new methods are required especially when it comes to make predictions limited to small areas, such as counties. This paper proposes one such method, which makes use of data collected from real demolition works and statistical information on the geographical area under study. Based on a correlation analysis between the demolition waste estimates and indicators such as population density, buildings ageing index, buildings density and land occupation type, relationships are established that can be used to determine demolition waste outputs in a given area. The derived models are presented and explained. This methodology is independent from the specific region with which it is exemplified (the Lisbon Metropolitan Area) and can therefore be applied to any region of the world, from the country to the county level. Generation of demolition waste data at the county level is the basis of the design of a systemic model for CDW management in a region. Future developments proposed include a mixed-integer linear programming formulation of such recycling network. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of background particulate matter concentrations in small cities and rural locations--Prince George, Canada.

PubMed

Veira, Andreas; Jackson, Peter L; Ainslie, Bruce; Fudge, Dennis

2013-07-01

This study investigates the development and application of a simple method to calculate annual and seasonal PM2.5 and PM10 background concentrations in small cities and rural areas. The Low Pollution Sectors and Conditions (LPSC) method is based on existing measured long-term data sets and is designed for locations where particulate matter (PM) monitors are only influenced by local anthropogenic emission sources from particular wind sectors. The LPSC method combines the analysis of measured hourly meteorological data, PM concentrations, and geographical emission source distributions. PM background levels emerge from measured data for specific wind conditions, where air parcel trajectories measured at a monitoring station are assumed to have passed over geographic sectors with negligible local emissions. Seasonal and annual background levels were estimated for two monitoring stations in Prince George, Canada, and the method was also applied to four other small cities (Burns Lake, Houston, Quesnel, Smithers) in northern British Columbia. The analysis showed reasonable background concentrations for both monitoring stations in Prince George, whereas annual PM10 background concentrations at two of the other locations and PM2.5 background concentrations at one other location were implausibly high. For those locations where the LPSC method was successful, annual background levels ranged between 1.8 +/- 0.1 microg/m3 and 2.5 +/- 0.1 microg/m3 for PM2.5 and between 6.3 +/- 0.3 microg/m3 and 8.5 +/- 0.3 microg/m3 for PM10. Precipitation effects and patterns of seasonal variability in the estimated background concentrations were detectable for all locations where the method was successful. Overall the method was dependent on the configuration of local geography and sources with respect to the monitoring location, and may fail at some locations and under some conditions. Where applicable, the LPSC method can provide a fast and cost-efficient way to estimate background PM concentrations for small cities in sparsely populated regions like northern British Columbia. In rural areas like northern British Columbia, particulate matter (PM) monitoring stations are usually located close to emission sources and residential areas in order to assess the PM impact on human health. Thus there is a lack of accurate PM background concentration data that represent PM ambient concentrations in the absence of local emissions. The background calculation method developed in this study uses observed meteorological data as well as local source emission locations and provides annual, seasonal and precipitation-related PM background concentrations that are comparable to literature values for four out of six monitoring stations.

Morphology-Driven Control of Metabolite Selectivity Using Nanostructure-Initiator Mass Spectrometry

DOE PAGES

Gao, Jian; Louie, Katherine B.; Steinke, Philipp; ...

2017-05-26

Nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry (NIMS) is a laser desorption/ionization analysis technique based on the vaporization of a nanostructure-trapped liquid "initiator" phase. Here we report an intriguing relationship between NIMS surface morphology and analyte selectivity. Scanning electron microscopy and spectroscopic ellipsometry were used to characterize the surface morphologies of a series of NIMS substrates generated by anodic electrochemical etching. Mass spectrometry imaging was applied to compare NIMS sensitivity of these various surfaces toward the analysis of diverse analytes. The porosity of NIMS surfaces was found to increase linearly with etching time where the pore size ranged from 4 to 12 nm withmore » corresponding porosities estimated to be 7-70%. Surface morphology was found to significantly and selectively alter NIMS sensitivity. The small molecule ( < 2k Da) sensitivity was found to increase with increased porosity, whereas low porosity had the highest sensitivity for the largest molecules examined. Estimation of molecular sizes showed that this transition occurs when the pore size is < 3× the maximum of molecular dimensions. While the origins of selectivity are unclear, increased signal from small molecules with increased surface area is consistent with a surface area restructuring-driven desorption/ionization process where signal intensity increases with porosity. In contrast, large molecules show highest signal for the low-porosity and small-pore-size surfaces. We attribute this to strong interactions between the initiator-coated pore structures and large molecules that hinder desorption/ionization by trapping large molecules. This finding may enable us to design NIMS surfaces with increased specificity to molecules of interest.« less

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

PubMed

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Allocating Logging Rights in Peruvian Amazonia—Does It Matter to Be Local?

PubMed Central

Salo, Matti; Helle, Samuli; Toivonen, Tuuli

2011-01-01

Background The fate of tropical forests is a global concern, yet many far-reaching decisions affecting forest resources are made locally. We explore allocation of logging rights using a case study from Loreto, Peruvian Amazonia, where millions of hectares of tropical rainforest were offered for concession in a competitive tendering process that addressed issues related to locality. Methodology/Principal Findings After briefly presenting the study area and the tendering process, we identify and define local and non-local actors taking part in the concession process. We then analyse their tenders, results of the tendering, and attributes of the concession areas. Our results show that there was more offer than demand for concession land in the tendering. The number of tenders the concession areas received was related to their size and geographic location in relation to the major cities, but not to their estimated timber volumes or median distances from transport routes. Small and Loreto-based actors offered lower yearly area-based fees compared to larger ones, but the offers did not significantly affect the results of the tenders. Local experience in the form of logging history or residence near the solicited concession areas, as well as being registered in the region of Loreto, improved the success of the tenders. Conclusions/Significance The allocation process left a considerable number of forest areas under the management of small and local actors, and if Peru is to reach its goal of zero deforestation rate by safeguarding 75 per cent of its forests by 2020, the small and the local actors need to be integrated to the forest regime as important constituents of its legitimacy. PMID:21589922

Assessment of actual transpiration rate in olive tree field combining sap-flow, leaf area index and scintillometer measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnese, C.; Cammalleri, C.; Ciraolo, G.; Minacapilli, M.; Provenzano, G.; Rallo, G.; de Bruin, H. A. R.

2009-09-01

Models to estimate the actual evapotranspiration (ET) in sparse vegetation area can be fundamental for agricultural water managements, especially when water availability is a limiting factor. Models validation must be carried out by considering in situ measurements referred to the field scale, which is the relevant scale of the modelled variables. Moreover, a particular relevance assumes to consider separately the components of plant transpiration (T) and soil evaporation (E), because only the first is actually related to the crop stress conditions. Objective of the paper was to assess a procedure aimed to estimate olive trees actual transpiration by combining sap flow measurements with the scintillometer technique at field scale. The study area, located in Western Sicily (Italy), is mainly cultivated with olive crop and is characterized by typical Mediterranean semi-arid climate. Measurements of sap flow and crop actual evapotranspiration rate were carried out during 2008 irrigation season. Crop transpiration fluxes, measured on some plants by means of sap flow sensors, were upscaled considering the leaf area index (LAI). The comparison between evapotranspiration values, derived by displaced-beam small-aperture scintillometer (DBSAS-SLS20, Scintec AG), with the transpiration fluxes obtained by the sap flow sensors, also allowed to evaluate the contribute of soil evaporation in an area characterized by low vegetation coverage.

Rare Event Simulation in Radiation Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollman, Craig

This dissertation studies methods for estimating extremely small probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. Problems in radiation transport typically involve estimating very rare events or the expected value of a random variable which is with overwhelming probability equal to zero. These problems often have high dimensional state spaces and irregular geometries so that analytic solutions are not possible. Monte Carlo simulation must be used to estimate the radiation dosage being transported to a particular location. If the area is well shielded the probability of any one particular particle getting through is very small. Because of the large number of particles involved, even a tiny fraction penetrating the shield may represent an unacceptable level of radiation. It therefore becomes critical to be able to accurately estimate this extremely small probability. Importance sampling is a well known technique for improving the efficiency of rare event calculations. Here, a new set of probabilities is used in the simulation runs. The results are multiplied by the likelihood ratio between the true and simulated probabilities so as to keep our estimator unbiased. The variance of the resulting estimator is very sensitive to which new set of transition probabilities are chosen. It is shown that a zero variance estimator does exist, but that its computation requires exact knowledge of the solution. A simple random walk with an associated killing model for the scatter of neutrons is introduced. Large deviation results for optimal importance sampling in random walks are extended to the case where killing is present. An adaptive "learning" algorithm for implementing importance sampling is given for more general Markov chain models of neutron scatter. For finite state spaces this algorithm is shown to give, with probability one, a sequence of estimates converging exponentially fast to the true solution. In the final chapter, an attempt to generalize this algorithm to a continuous state space is made. This involves partitioning the space into a finite number of cells. There is a tradeoff between additional computation per iteration and variance reduction per iteration that arises in determining the optimal grid size. All versions of this algorithm can be thought of as a compromise between deterministic and Monte Carlo methods, capturing advantages of both techniques.

Analysis of streamflow-gaging network for monitoring stormwater in small streams in the Puget Sound Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Voss, Frank D.

2012-01-01

The streamflow-gaging network in the Puget Sound basin was analyzed for its capacity to monitor stormwater in small streams. The analysis consisted of an inventory of active and inactive gages and an evaluation of the coverage and resolution of the gaging network with an emphasis on lowland areas. The active gaging network covers much of the Puget Lowland largely by gages located at sites on larger streams and rivers. Assessments of stormwater impacts and management will likely require streamflow information with higher spatial resolution than provided by the current gaging network. Monitoring that emphasizes small streams in combination with approaches for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites provides an alternative to expanding the current gaging network that can improve the spatial resolution of streamflow information in the region. The highest priority gaps in the gaging network are low elevation basins close to the Puget Sound shoreline and sites that share less than 10 percent of the drainage area of an active gage. Although small, lowland sites with long records of streamflow are particularly valuable to maintain in the region, other criteria for prioritizing sites in the gaging network should be based on the specific questions that stormwater managers need to answer.

Deceptively Small

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-02

Tiny Epimetheus is dwarfed by adjacent slivers of the A and F rings. But is it really? Looks can be deceiving! There is approximately 10 to 20 times more mass in that tiny dot than in the piece of the A ring visible in this image! In total, Saturn's rings have about as much mass as a few times the mass of the moon Mimas. (This mass estimate comes from measuring the waves raised in the rings by moons like Epimetheus.) The rings look physically larger than any moon because the individual ring particles are very small, giving them a large surface area for a given mass. Epimetheus (70 miles or 113 kilometers across), on the other hand, has a small surface area per mass compared to the rings, making it look deceptively small. This view looks toward the sunlit side of the rings from about 19 degrees above the ringplane. The image was taken in visible light with the Cassini spacecraft narrow-angle camera on Dec. 5, 2014. The view was obtained at a distance of approximately 1.2 million miles (2 million kilometers) from Epimetheus and at a Sun-Epimetheus-spacecraft, or phase, angle of 40 degrees. Image scale is 7 miles (12 kilometers) per pixel. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18302

Geodetically resolved slip distribution of the 27 August 2012 Mw=7.3 El Salvador earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geirsson, H.; La Femina, P. C.; DeMets, C.; Hernandez, D. A.; Mattioli, G. S.; Rogers, R.; Rodriguez, M.

2013-12-01

On 27 August 2012 a Mw=7.3 earthquake occurred offshore of Central America causing a small tsunami in El Salvador and Nicaragua but little damage otherwise. This is the largest magnitude earthquake in this area since 2001. We use co-seismic displacements estimated from episodic and continuous GPS station time series to model the magnitude and spatial variability of slip for this event. The estimated surface displacements are small (<2 cm) due to the distance and low magnitude of the earthquake. We use TDEFNODE to model the displacements using two different modeling approaches. In the first model, we solve for homogeneous slip on free rectangular fault(s), and in the second model we solve for distributed slip on the main thrust, realized using different slab models. The results indicate that we can match the seismic moment release, with models indicating rupture of a large area, with a low magnitude of slip. The slip is at shallow-to-intermediate depths on the main thrust off the coast of El Salvador. Additionally, we observe a deeper region of slip to the east, that reaches towards the Gulf of Fonseca between El Salvador and Nicaragua. The observed tsunami additionally indicates near-trench rupture off the coast of El Salvador. The duration of the rupturing is estimated from seismic data to be 70 s, which indicates a slow rupture process. Since the geodetic moment we obtain agrees with the seismic moment, this indicates that the earthquake was not associated with aseismic slip.

Population Estimation Using a 3D City Model: A Multi-Scale Country-Wide Study in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Arroyo Ohori, Ken; Ledoux, Hugo; Peters, Ravi; Stoter, Jantien

2016-01-01

The remote estimation of a region’s population has for decades been a key application of geographic information science in demography. Most studies have used 2D data (maps, satellite imagery) to estimate population avoiding field surveys and questionnaires. As the availability of semantic 3D city models is constantly increasing, we investigate to what extent they can be used for the same purpose. Based on the assumption that housing space is a proxy for the number of its residents, we use two methods to estimate the population with 3D city models in two directions: (1) disaggregation (areal interpolation) to estimate the population of small administrative entities (e.g. neighbourhoods) from that of larger ones (e.g. municipalities); and (2) a statistical modelling approach to estimate the population of large entities from a sample composed of their smaller ones (e.g. one acquired by a government register). Starting from a complete Dutch census dataset at the neighbourhood level and a 3D model of all 9.9 million buildings in the Netherlands, we compare the population estimates obtained by both methods with the actual population as reported in the census, and use it to evaluate the quality that can be achieved by estimations at different administrative levels. We also analyse how the volume-based estimation enabled by 3D city models fares in comparison to 2D methods using building footprints and floor areas, as well as how it is affected by different levels of semantic detail in a 3D city model. We conclude that 3D city models are useful for estimations of large areas (e.g. for a country), and that the 3D approach has clear advantages over the 2D approach. PMID:27254151

Spectral Estimation Model Construction of Heavy Metals in Mining Reclamation Areas

PubMed Central

Dong, Jihong; Dai, Wenting; Xu, Jiren; Li, Songnian

2016-01-01

The study reported here examined, as the research subject, surface soils in the Liuxin mining area of Xuzhou, and explored the heavy metal content and spectral data by establishing quantitative models with Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Sequential Minimal Optimization for Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM) methods. The study results are as follows: (1) the estimations of the spectral inversion models established based on MLR, GRNN and SMO-SVM are satisfactory, and the MLR model provides the worst estimation, with R2 of more than 0.46. This result suggests that the stress sensitive bands of heavy metal pollution contain enough effective spectral information; (2) the GRNN model can simulate the data from small samples more effectively than the MLR model, and the R2 between the contents of the five heavy metals estimated by the GRNN model and the measured values are approximately 0.7; (3) the stability and accuracy of the spectral estimation using the SMO-SVM model are obviously better than that of the GRNN and MLR models. Among all five types of heavy metals, the estimation for cadmium (Cd) is the best when using the SMO-SVM model, and its R2 value reaches 0.8628; (4) using the optimal model to invert the Cd content in wheat that are planted on mine reclamation soil, the R2 and RMSE between the measured and the estimated values are 0.6683 and 0.0489, respectively. This result suggests that the method using the SMO-SVM model to estimate the contents of heavy metals in wheat samples is feasible. PMID:27367708

Spectral Estimation Model Construction of Heavy Metals in Mining Reclamation Areas.

PubMed

Dong, Jihong; Dai, Wenting; Xu, Jiren; Li, Songnian

2016-06-28

The study reported here examined, as the research subject, surface soils in the Liuxin mining area of Xuzhou, and explored the heavy metal content and spectral data by establishing quantitative models with Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Sequential Minimal Optimization for Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM) methods. The study results are as follows: (1) the estimations of the spectral inversion models established based on MLR, GRNN and SMO-SVM are satisfactory, and the MLR model provides the worst estimation, with R² of more than 0.46. This result suggests that the stress sensitive bands of heavy metal pollution contain enough effective spectral information; (2) the GRNN model can simulate the data from small samples more effectively than the MLR model, and the R² between the contents of the five heavy metals estimated by the GRNN model and the measured values are approximately 0.7; (3) the stability and accuracy of the spectral estimation using the SMO-SVM model are obviously better than that of the GRNN and MLR models. Among all five types of heavy metals, the estimation for cadmium (Cd) is the best when using the SMO-SVM model, and its R² value reaches 0.8628; (4) using the optimal model to invert the Cd content in wheat that are planted on mine reclamation soil, the R² and RMSE between the measured and the estimated values are 0.6683 and 0.0489, respectively. This result suggests that the method using the SMO-SVM model to estimate the contents of heavy metals in wheat samples is feasible.

Spatio-temporal Variations in Slow Earthquakes along the Mexican Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, S.; Maury, J.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Kostoglodov, V.

2017-12-01

Slow earthquakes in Mexico have been investigated independently in different areas. Here, we review differences in tremor behavior and slow slip events along the entire subduction zone to improve our understanding of its segmentation. Some similarities are observed between the Guerrero and Oaxaca areas. By combining our improved tremor detection capabilities with previous results, we suggest that there is no gap in tremor between Guerrero and Oaxaca. However some differences between Michoacan and Guerrero are seen (e.g., SSE magnitude, tremor zone width, tremor rate), suggesting that these two areas behave differently. Tremor initiation shows clear tidal sensitivity along the entire subduction zone. Tremor in Guerrero is sensitive to small tidal normal stress as well as shear stress suggesting the subduction plane may include local variations in dip. Estimation of the energy rate shows similar values along the subduction zone interface. The scaled tremor energy estimates are similar to those calculated in Nankai and Cascadia, suggesting a common mechanism. Along-strike differences in slow deformation may be related to variations in the subduction interface that yield different geometrical and temperature profiles.

[The effect of contraception on fertility in the border region of Chiapas, Mexico].

PubMed

Nazar-Beutelspacher, A; Halperin-Frisch, D; Salvatierra-Izaba, B

1996-01-01

To estimate the effect of contraception on fertility in the border region of Chiapas, Mexico. In 1994 an epidemiological cross-sectional study was carried out on a representative sample of 1,560 non-indigenous women between ages 15 and 49 in the border region of Chiapas. The prevalence of contraception practices and the total fertility rates (TFR) were obtained and stratified by rural, intermediate and urban communities. TFR were compared between women who had never used contraceptives and those who had used them. The estimated TFR was 3.67 and varied from 4.14 in rural areas to 3.36 in urban areas. There were no differences in the TFR (3.74 and 3.88) nor in the average live births (3.47 and 3.48) between women who had never used contraceptives and those who had used them. The major effect of contraception on fertility was observed in rural areas. Factors which influence the small impact of contraception on fertility include the late use of these methods and the early age of first union among users.

Radar characteristics of Viking 1 landing sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tyler, G.L.; Campbell, D.B.; Downs, G.S.; Green, R.R.; Moore, H.J.

1976-01-01

Radar observations of Mars at centimeter wavelengths in May, June, and July 1976 provided estimates of surface roughness and reflectivity in three potential landing areas for Viking 1. Surface roughness is characterized by the distribution of surface landing slopes or tilts on lateral scales of the order of 1 to 10 meters; measurements of surface reflectivity are indicators of bulk surface density in the uppermost few centimeters. By these measures, the Viking 1 landing site at 47.5??W, 22.4??N is rougher than the martian average, although it may be near the martian average for elevations accessible to Viking, and is estimated to be near the Mars average in reflectivity. The AINW site at the center of Chryse Planitia, 43.5??W, 23.4??N, may be an area of anomalous radar characteristics, indicative of extreme, small-scale roughness, very low surface density, or a combination of these two characteristics. Low signal-to-noise ratio observations of the original Chryse site at 34??W, 19.5??N indicate that that area is at least twice as rough as the Mars average.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Slow Earthquakes Along the Mexican Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maury, J.; Ide, S.; Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Kostoglodov, V.

2018-02-01

Slow earthquakes in Mexico have been investigated independently in different areas. Here we review differences in tremor behavior and slow slip events along the entire subduction zone to improve our understanding of its segmentation. Some similarities are observed between the Guerrero and Oaxaca areas. By combining our improved tremor detection capabilities with previous results, we suggest that there is no gap in tremor between Guerrero and Oaxaca. However, some differences between Michoacan and Guerrero are seen (e.g., SSE magnitude, tremor zone width, and tremor rate), suggesting that these two areas behave differently. Tremor initiation shows clear tidal sensitivity along the entire subduction zone. Tremor in Guerrero is sensitive to small tidal normal stress as well as shear stress, suggesting that the subduction plane may include local variations in dip. Estimation of the energy rate shows similar values along the subduction zone interface. The scaled tremor energy estimates are similar to those calculated in Nankai and Cascadia, suggesting a common mechanism. Along-strike differences in slow deformation may be related to variations in the subduction interface that yield different geometrical and temperature profiles.

Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a National Park Wilderness Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Watry, Mary Kay; Ellison, Laura E.; Schwarz, Michael A.; Luikart, Gordon

2015-01-01

Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population's range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test whether we could accurately estimate population size by sampling from an area where animals concentrate. We used mark-recapture analysis to derive population estimates, and compared estimates from this smaller spatial sampling to estimates from sampling of the entire bighorn sheep range. We found that estimates were somewhat comparable; in 2009, the mineral lick sample and entire range sample differed by 20 individuals, and in 2010 they differed by only one individual. However, we captured 13 individuals in the entire range sample that were not captured at the mineral lick, and thus violated a model assumption that all individuals had an equal opportunity of being captured. This eliminated the possibility of inferring a total population estimate from just animals visiting the mineral lick, but because estimates were relatively similar, monitoring at the mineral lick can provide a useful index for management and conservation. We compared our results to a radio-collar study conducted in 2003–2004 and confirmed that the population remained stable since 2004. Our population estimates were 78 (CI 62–114) in 2009 and 95 (CI 77–131) in 2010. Between 7 and 11 sampling dates were needed to achieve a CV of 20% for population estimates, assuming a capture probability between 0.09 and 0.13. We relied on citizen science volunteers to maximize data collection and reduce costs; 71% of all fecal samples were collected by volunteers, compared to 29% collected by paid staff. We conclude that our technique provides a useful monitoring tool for managers. The technique could be tested and applied in similar populations where animals congregate with high fidelity at a mineral lick or other area.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Iterative motion compensation approach for ultrasonic thermal imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Ioana; Hager, Gregory; Guo, Xiaoyu; Kang, Hyun Jae; Boctor, Emad

2015-03-01

As thermal imaging attempts to estimate very small tissue motion (on the order of tens of microns), it can be negatively influenced by signal decorrelation. Patient's breathing and cardiac cycle generate shifts in the RF signal patterns. Other sources of movement could be found outside the patient's body, like transducer slippage or small vibrations due to environment factors like electronic noise. Here, we build upon a robust displacement estimation method for ultrasound elastography and we investigate an iterative motion compensation algorithm, which can detect and remove non-heat induced tissue motion at every step of the ablation procedure. The validation experiments are performed on laboratory induced ablation lesions in ex-vivo tissue. The ultrasound probe is either held by the operator's hand or supported by a robotic arm. We demonstrate the ability to detect and remove non-heat induced tissue motion in both settings. We show that removing extraneous motion helps unmask the effects of heating. Our strain estimation curves closely mirror the temperature changes within the tissue. While previous results in the area of motion compensation were reported for experiments lasting less than 10 seconds, our algorithm was tested on experiments that lasted close to 20 minutes.

Age and stratigraphic context of Pliopithecus and associated fauna from Miocene sedimentary strata at Damiao, Inner Mongolia, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaakinen, Anu; Abdul Aziz, Hayfaa; Passey, Benjamin H.; Zhang, Zhaoqun; Liu, Liping; Salminen, Johanna; Wang, Lihua; Krijgsman, Wout; Fortelius, Mikael

2015-03-01

Since the discovery of mammalian fossils in Central Inner Mongolia in the beginning of the 20th century, this area has produced a rich and diverse record of Miocene faunas. Nevertheless, the stratigraphy has remained poorly constrained owing to scattered faunal horizons and lack of continuous vertical exposures. Consequently, most age estimates of these Miocene sites are based on paleontological evidence alone, with very few sites having been dated independently. Our field investigations in Damiao, in Siziwang Qi, Inner Mongolia have yielded more than 30 new fossiliferous localities from three horizons, including a pliopithecid fauna. This study presents the litho-, bio- and magnetostratigraphy of the Damiao area and provides age estimates for the three fossil-bearing horizons. The sedimentary sequence is interpreted as the remains of a fluvial system comprising channels, subaerially exposed floodplains and floodbasin environments. The two local stratigraphic sections measured and sampled for paleomagnetic analysis coincide with species-rich vertebrate fossil localities. The paleomagnetic results and faunal evidence suggest a correlation of lowermost fossil horizon (DM16) producing relatively rich small mammal assemblage to the early Miocene chron C6Ar or C6An.1r, roughly in 20-21 Ma age range. The pliopithecid locality level (DM01) represents latest middle Miocene and has an age estimate of about 12.1 Ma while the youngest localities (DM02) with cervoids and abundant and diverse small mammal fauna represents the earliest late Miocene with an age estimate of about 11.6 Ma. Our magnetostratigraphic results confirm that the Damiao strata constitute one of the best sequences in Inner Mongolia with early, middle and late Miocene mammalian faunas in stratigraphic superposition. The results also provide constraints on the paleoenvironmental evolution and bioevents of the area. The occurrence of pliopithecid primates in the middle Miocene of Inner Mongolia suggests humid habitats and challenges the scenarios suggesting arid and highly seasonal conditions for Central Asia since Early Miocene. The presence of pliopithecids may also bear witness to locally humid environments and greater habitat heterogeneity than previously known in central Inner Mongolia.

Greenhouse Gas Exchange in Small Arctic Thaw Ponds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurion, I.; Bégin, P. N.; Bouchard, F.; Preskienis, V.

2014-12-01

Arctic lakes and ponds can represent up to one quarter of the land surface in permafrost landscapes, particularly in lowland tundra landscapes characterized by ice wedge organic polygons. Thaw ponds can be defined as the aquatic ecosystems associated to thawing of organic soils, either resulting from active layer processes and located above low-center peat polygons (hereafter low-center polygonal or LCP ponds), or resulting from thermokarst slumping above melting ice wedges linked to the accelerated degradation of permafrost (hereafter ice-wedge trough or IWT ponds). These ponds can merge together forming larger water bodies, but with relatively stable shores (hereafter merged polygonal or MPG ponds), and with limnological characteristics similar to LCP ponds. These aquatic systems are very small and shallow, and present a different physical structure than the larger thermokarst lakes, generated after years of development and land subsidence. In a glacier valley on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, thermokarst and kettle lakes together represent 29% of the aquatic area, with a thermal profile resembling those of more standard arctic lakes (mixed epilimnion). The IWT ponds (44% of the area) are stratified for a large fraction of the summer despite their shallowness, while LCP and MPG ponds (27% of the area) show a more homogeneous water column. This will affect gas exchange in these diverse aquatic systems, in addition to their unique microbiota and organic carbon lability that control the production and consumption rates of greenhouse gases. The stratification in IWT ponds generates hypoxic conditions at the bottom, and together with the larger availability of organic carbon, stimulates methanogenesis and limits the mitigating action of methanotrophs. Overall, thaw ponds are largely supersaturated in methane, with IWT ponds dominating the emissions in this landscape (92% of total aquatic emissions estimated for the same valley), and they present large variations in emission rates. Conventional wind-based models seem inappropriate to simulate GHG exchanges, as seen when comparing with floating chamber estimations. Surface renewal models that consider heat exchanges are used to estimate flux more accurately, and ebullition flux are measured with submerged funnels to compare with diffusive flux estimations.

Estimation of Groundwater Storage Change via GRACE over a Small Watershed - A Case Study over Konya Closed Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karasu, İ. G.; Yilmaz, K. K.; Yilmaz, M. T.

2017-12-01

Estimation of the groundwater storage change and its interannual variability is critical over Konya Closed Basin which has excessive agricultural production. The annual total precipitation falling over the region is not sufficient to compensate the agricultural irrigation needs of the region. This leds many to use groundwater as the primary water resource, which resulted in significant drop in the groundwater levels. Accordingly, monitoring of the groundwater change is critical for sustainable water resources management. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) have been succesfully used over many locations to monitor the change in the groundwater storages. In this study, GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage estimates and GLDAS model soil moisture, canopy water, snow water equivalent and surface runoff simulations are used to retrieve the change in the groundwater storage over Konya Closed Basin streching over 50,000 km2 area. Initial comparisons show the declining trend in GRACE and GLDAS combined groundwater storage change estimates between 2002 and 2016 are consistent with the actual groundwater level change observed at ground stations. Even though many studies recommend GRACE observations to be used over regions larger than 100,000 km2 - 200,000 km2 area, results show GRACE remote sensing and GLDAS modeled groundwater change information are skillful to monitor the large mass changes occured as a result of the excessive groundwater exploitation over Konya Closed Basin with 50,000 km2 area.

Testing Small CPAS Parachutes Using HIVAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Eric S.; Hennings, Elsa; Bernatovich, Michael A.

2013-01-01

The High Velocity Airflow System (HIVAS) facility at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake was successfully used as an alternative to flight test to determine parachute drag performance of two small Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) canopies. A similar parachute with known performance was also tested as a control. Realtime computations of drag coefficient were unrealistically low. This is because HIVAS produces a non-uniform flow which rapidly decays from a high central core flow. Additional calibration runs were performed to characterize this flow assuming radial symmetry from the centerline. The flow field was used to post-process effective flow velocities at each throttle setting and parachute diameter using the definition of the momentum flux factor. Because one parachute had significant oscillations, additional calculations were required to estimate the projected flow at off-axis angles. The resulting drag data from HIVAS compared favorably to previously estimated parachute performance based on scaled data from analogous CPAS parachutes. The data will improve drag area distributions in the next version of the CPAS Model Memo.

Improving erosion modeling on forest roads in the Lake Tahoe Basin: Small plot rainfall simulations to determine saturated hydraulic conductivity and interrill erodibility

Treesearch

N. S. Copeland; R. B. Foltz

2009-01-01

Lake Tahoe is renowned for its beauty and exceptionally clear water. The Tahoe basin economy is dependent upon the protection of this beauty and the continued availability of recreational opportunities in the area; however, scientists estimate that the continued increase in fine sediment and nutrient transport to the lake threatens to diminish this clarity in as little...

Environmental Assessment for Clear AFS Grid Tie-in and Heat Plant, Clear Air Force Station, Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

greenhouse gases are presented in this section. 3.3.2.1 Air Quality Standards All stationary and mobile sources of air pollutants within a...These inventories provide estimates of criteria pollutant emissions associated with industrial sources, residential wood burning, mobile sources...larger, more mobile wildlife species are expected to vacate the project area, whereas individuals of less mobile species (i.e., small mammals,) could

Most U.S. School Districts Have Low Access to School Counselors: Poor, Diverse, and City School Districts Exhibit Particularly High Student-to-Counselor Ratios. National Issue Brief Number 108

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagnon, Douglas J.; Mattingly, Marybeth J.

2016-01-01

In this brief, the authors examine the level of access to school counselors, and how this access is mediated by district demographic and location characteristics. Using a large nationally representative data source compiled from the 2013-2104 Civil Rights Data Collection (CRDC), the 2014 Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE), and 2007…

Annual design-based estimation for the annualized inventories of forest inventory and analysis: sample size determination

Treesearch

Hans T. Schreuder; Jin-Mann S. Lin; John Teply

2000-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis units in the USDA Forest Service have been mandated by Congress to go to an annualized inventory where a certain percentage of plots, say 20 percent, will be measured in each State each year. Although this will result in an annual sample size that will be too small for reliable inference for many areas, it is a sufficiently large...

Mapping Fire Scars in the Brazilian Cerrado Using AVHRR Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hlavka, C. A.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Brass, J. A.; Rezendez, A.; Alexander, S.; Guild, L. S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Brazilian cerrado, or savanna, spans an area of 1,800,000 square kilometers on the great plateau of Central Brazil. Large fires covering hundreds of square kilometers, frequently occur in wildland areas of the cerrado, dominated by grasslands or grasslands mixed with shrubs and small trees, and also within area in the cerrado used for agricultural purposes, particularly for grazing. Smaller fires, typically extending over arm of a few square kilometers or less, are associated with the clewing of crops, such as dry land rice. A method for mapping fire scars and differentiating them from extensive areas of bare sod with AVHRR bands 1 (.55 -.68 micrometer) and 3 (3.5 - 3.9 micrometers) and measures of performance based on comparison with maps of fires with Landsat imagery will be presented. Methods of estimating total area burned from the AVHRR fire scar map will be discussed and related to land use and scar size.

The fish community of a small impoundment in upstate New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, C. Mead; Madenjian, Charles P.; Adams, Jean V.; Harman, Willard N.

2001-01-01

Moe Pond is a dimictic impoundment with surface area of 15.6 ha, a mean depth of 1.8 m, and an unexploited fish community of only two species: brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) and golden shiner (Notemigonus crysoleucas). The age-1 and older brown bullhead population was estimated to be 4,057 individuals, based on the Schnabel capture-recapture method of population estimation. Density and biomass were respectively estimated at 260 individuals/ha and 13 kg/ha. Annual survival rate of age-2 through age-5 brown bullheads was estimated at 48%. The golden shiner length-frequency distribution was unimodal with modal length of 80 mm and maximum total length of 115 m. The golden shiner population estimate was 7,154 individuals, based on seven beach seine haul replicate samples; the density and biomass were 686 shiners/ha and 5 kg/ha, respectively. This study provides an information baseline that may be useful in understanding food web interactions and whole-pond nutrient flux.

Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

PubMed

Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

2016-07-01

To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Promoting biodiversity values of small forest patches in agricultural landscapes: Ecological drivers and social demand.

PubMed

Varela, Elsa; Verheyen, Kris; Valdés, Alicia; Soliño, Mario; Jacobsen, Jette B; De Smedt, Pallieter; Ehrmann, Steffen; Gärtner, Stefanie; Górriz, Elena; Decocq, Guillaume

2018-04-01

Small forest patches embedded in agricultural (and peri-urban) landscapes in Western Europe play a key role for biodiversity conservation with a recognized capacity of delivering a wide suite of ecosystem services. Measures aimed to preserve these patches should be both socially desirable and ecologically effective. This study presents a joint ecologic and economic assessment conducted on small forest patches in Flanders (Belgium) and Picardie (N France). In each study region, two contrasted types of agricultural landscapes were selected. Open field (OF) and Bocage (B) landscapes are distinguished by the intensity of their usage and higher connectivity in the B landscapes. The social demand for enhancing biodiversity and forest structure diversity as well as for increasing the forest area at the expenses of agricultural land is estimated through an economic valuation survey. These results are compared with the outcomes of an ecological survey where the influence of structural features of the forest patches on the associated herbaceous diversity is assessed. The ecological and economic surveys show contrasting results; increasing tree species richness is ecologically more important for herbaceous diversity in the patch, but both tree species richness and herbaceous diversity obtain insignificant willingness to pay estimates. Furthermore, although respondents prefer the proposed changes to take place in the region where they live, we find out that social preferences and ecological effectiveness do differ between landscapes that represent different intensities of land use. Dwellers where the landscape is perceived as more "degraded" attach more value to diversity enhancement, suggesting a prioritization of initiatives in these area. In contrast, the ecological analyses show that prioritizing the protection and enhancement of the relatively better-off areas is more ecologically effective. Our study calls for a balance between ecological effectiveness and welfare benefits, suggesting that cost effectiveness studies should consider these approaches jointly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying key demographic parameters of a small island–associated population of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Reunion, Indian Ocean)

PubMed Central

Estrade, Vanessa; Fayan, Jacques

2017-01-01

Photo-identification surveys of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins were conducted from 2009 to 2014 off Reunion Island (55°E33’/21°S07’), in the Indian Ocean. Robust Design models were applied to produce the most reliable estimate of population abundance and survival rate, while accounting for temporary emigration from the survey area (west coast). The sampling scheme consisted of a five-month (June–October) sampling period in each year of the study. The overall population size at Reunion was estimated to be 72 individuals (SE = 6.17, 95%CI = 61–85), based on a random temporary emigration (γ”) of 0.096 and a proportion of 0.70 (SE = 0.03) distinct individuals. The annual survival rate was 0.93 (±0.018 SE, 95%CI = 0.886–0.958) and was constant over time and between sexes. Models considering gender groups indicated different movement patterns between males and females. Males showed null or quasi-null temporary emigration (γ” = γ’ < 0.01), while females showed a random temporary emigration (γ”) of 0.10, suggesting that a small proportion of females was outside the survey area during each primary sampling period. Sex-specific temporary migration patterns were consistent with movement and residency patterns observed in other areas. The Robust Design approach provided an appropriate sampling scheme for deriving island-associated population parameters, while allowing to restrict survey effort both spatially (i.e. west coast only) and temporally (five months per year). Although abundance and survival were stable over the six years, the small population size of fewer than 100 individuals suggested that this population is highly vulnerable. Priority should be given to reducing any potential impact of human activity on the population and its habitat. PMID:28640918

Efficacy of generic allometric equations for estimating biomass: a test in Japanese natural forests.

PubMed

Ishihara, Masae I; Utsugi, Hajime; Tanouchi, Hiroyuki; Aiba, Masahiro; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Onoda, Yusuke; Nagano, Masahiro; Umehara, Toru; Ando, Makoto; Miyata, Rie; Hiura, Tsutom

2015-07-01

Accurate estimation of tree and forest biomass is key to evaluating forest ecosystem functions and the global carbon cycle. Allometric equations that estimate tree biomass from a set of predictors, such as stem diameter and tree height, are commonly used. Most allometric equations are site specific, usually developed from a small number of trees harvested in a small area, and are either species specific or ignore interspecific differences in allometry. Due to lack of site-specific allometries, local equations are often applied to sites for which they were not originally developed (foreign sites), sometimes leading to large errors in biomass estimates. In this study, we developed generic allometric equations for aboveground biomass and component (stem, branch, leaf, and root) biomass using large, compiled data sets of 1203 harvested trees belonging to 102 species (60 deciduous angiosperm, 32 evergreen angiosperm, and 10 evergreen gymnosperm species) from 70 boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests in Japan. The best generic equations provided better biomass estimates than did local equations that were applied to foreign sites. The best generic equations included explanatory variables that represent interspecific differences in allometry in addition to stem diameter, reducing error by 4-12% compared to the generic equations that did not include the interspecific difference. Different explanatory variables were selected for different components. For aboveground and stem biomass, the best generic equations had species-specific wood specific gravity as an explanatory variable. For branch, leaf, and root biomass, the best equations had functional types (deciduous angiosperm, evergreen angiosperm, and evergreen gymnosperm) instead of functional traits (wood specific gravity or leaf mass per area), suggesting importance of other traits in addition to these traits, such as canopy and root architecture. Inclusion of tree height in addition to stem diameter improved the performance of the generic equation only for stem biomass and had no apparent effect on aboveground, branch, leaf, and root biomass at the site level. The development of a generic allometric equation taking account of interspecific differences is an effective approach for accurately estimating aboveground and component biomass in boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests.

Assessment of the Contractile Properties of Permeabilized Skeletal Muscle Fibers.

PubMed

Claflin, Dennis R; Roche, Stuart M; Gumucio, Jonathan P; Mendias, Christopher L; Brooks, Susan V

2016-01-01

Permeabilized individual skeletal muscle fibers offer the opportunity to evaluate contractile behavior in a system that is greatly simplified, yet physiologically relevant. Here we describe the steps required to prepare, permeabilize and preserve small samples of skeletal muscle. We then detail the procedures used to isolate individual fiber segments and attach them to an experimental apparatus for the purpose of controlling activation and measuring force generation. We also describe our technique for estimating the cross-sectional area of fiber segments. The area measurement is necessary for normalizing the absolute force to obtain specific force, a measure of the intrinsic force-generating capability of the contractile system.

Do Physicians' Financial Incentives Affect Medical Treatment and Patient Health?†

PubMed Central

Clemens, Jeffrey; Gottlieb, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

We investigate whether physicians' financial incentives influence health care supply, technology diffusion, and resulting patient outcomes. In 1997, Medicare consolidated the geographic regions across which it adjusts physician payments, generating area-specific price shocks. Areas with higher payment shocks experience significant increases in health care supply. On average, a 2 percent increase in payment rates leads to a 3 percent increase in care provision. Elective procedures such as cataract surgery respond much more strongly than less discretionary services. Non-radiologists expand their provision of MRIs, suggesting effects on technology adoption. We estimate economically small health impacts, albeit with limited precision. PMID:25170174

Effects of a flooding event on a threatened black bear population in Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Lowe, Carrie L.; Clark, Joseph D.

2014-01-01

The Louisiana black bear, Ursus americanus luteolus, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of habitat loss and human-related mortality. Information on population-level responses of large mammals to flooding events is scarce, and we had a unique opportunity to evaluate the viability of the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB) black bear population before and after a significant flooding event. We began collecting black bear hair samples in 2007 for a DNA mark-recapture study to estimate abundance (N) and apparent survival (φ). In 2011, the Morganza Spillway was opened to divert floodwaters from the Mississippi River through the UARB, inundating > 50% of our study area, potentially impacting recovery of this important bear population. To evaluate the effects of this flooding event on bear population dynamics, we used a robust design multistate model to estimate changes in transition rates from the flooded area to non-flooded area (ψF→NF) before (2007–2010), during (2010–2011) and after (2011–2012) the flood. Average N across all years of study was 63.2 (SE = 5.2), excluding the year of the flooding event. Estimates of ψF→NF increased from 0.014 (SE = 0.010; meaning that 1.4% of the bears moved from the flooded area to non-flooded areas) before flooding to 0.113 (SE = 0.045) during the flood year, and then decreased to 0.028 (SE= 0.035) after the flood. Although we demonstrated a flood effect on transition rates as hypothesized, the effect was small (88.7% of the bears remained in the flooded area during flooding) and φ was unchanged, suggesting that the 2011 flooding event had minimal impact on survival and site fidelity.

Arctic Sea Ice Parameters from AMSR-E Data using Two Techniques, and Comparisons with Sea Ice from SSM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2007-01-01

We use two algorithms to process AMSR-E data in order to determine algorithm dependence, if any, on the estimates of sea ice concentration, ice extent and area, and trends and to evaluate how AMSR-E data compare with historical SSM/I data. The monthly ice concentrations derived from the two algorithms from AMSR-E data (the AMSR-E Bootstrap Algorithm, or ABA, and the enhanced NASA Team algorithm, or NT2) differ on average by about 1 to 3%, with data from the consolidated ice region being generally comparable for ABA and NT2 retrievals while data in the marginal ice zones and thin ice regions show higher values when the NT2 algorithm is used. The ice extents and areas derived separately from AMSR-E using these two algorithms are, however, in good agreement, with the differences (ABA-NT2) being about 6.6 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers on average for ice extents and -6.6 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers for ice area which are small compared to mean seasonal values of 10.5 x 10(exp 6) and 9.8 x 10(exp 6) for ice extent and area: respectively. Likewise, extents and areas derived from the same algorithm but from AMSR-E and SSM/I data are consistent but differ by about -24.4 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers and -13.9 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers, respectively. The discrepancies are larger with the estimates of extents than area mainly because of differences in channel selection and sensor resolutions. Trends in extent during the AMSR-E era were also estimated and results from all three data sets are shown to be in good agreement (within errors).

Comparison of the Current Center of Site Annual Neshap Dose Modeling at the Savannah River Site with Other Assessment Methods.

PubMed

Minter, Kelsey M; Jannik, G Timothy; Stagich, Brooke H; Dixon, Kenneth L; Newton, Joseph R

2018-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of the model CAP88 to estimate the total effective dose (TED) to an offsite maximally exposed individual (MEI) for demonstrating compliance with 40 CFR 61, Subpart H: The National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations. For NESHAP compliance at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the EPA, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, and SRS approved a dose assessment method in 1991 that models all radiological emissions as if originating from a generalized center of site (COS) location at two allowable stack heights (0 m and 61 m). However, due to changes in SRS missions, radiological emissions are no longer evenly distributed about the COS. An area-specific simulation of the 2015 SRS radiological airborne emissions was conducted to compare to the current COS method. The results produced a slightly higher dose estimate (2.97 × 10 mSv vs. 2.22 × 10 mSv), marginally changed the overall MEI location, and noted that H-Area tritium emissions dominated the dose. Thus, an H-Area dose model was executed as a potential simplification of the area-specific simulation by adopting the COS methodology and modeling all site emissions from a single location in H-Area using six stack heights that reference stacks specific to the tritium production facilities within H-Area. This "H-Area Tritium Stacks" method produced a small increase in TED estimates (3.03 × 10 mSv vs. 2.97 × 10 mSv) when compared to the area-specific simulation. This suggests that the current COS method is still appropriate for demonstrating compliance with NESHAP regulations but that changing to the H-Area Tritium Stacks assessment method may now be a more appropriate representation of operations at SRS.

Measures of Social Deprivation That Predict Health Care Access and Need within a Rational Area of Primary Care Service Delivery

PubMed Central

Butler, Danielle C; Petterson, Stephen; Phillips, Robert L; Bazemore, Andrew W

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a measure of social deprivation that is associated with health care access and health outcomes at a novel geographic level, primary care service area. Data Sources/Study Setting Secondary analysis of data from the Dartmouth Atlas, AMA Masterfile, National Provider Identifier data, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, American Community Survey, Area Resource File, and Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. Data were aggregated to primary care service areas (PCSAs). Study Design Social deprivation variables were selected from literature review and international examples. Factor analysis was used. Correlation and multivariate analyses were conducted between index, health outcomes, and measures of health care access. The derived index was compared with poverty as a predictor of health outcomes. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Variables not available at the PCSA level were estimated at block level, then aggregated to PCSA level. Principal Findings Our social deprivation index is positively associated with poor access and poor health outcomes. This pattern holds in multivariate analyses controlling for other measures of access. A multidimensional measure of deprivation is more strongly associated with health outcomes than a measure of poverty alone. Conclusions This geographic index has utility for identifying areas in need of assistance and is timely for revision of 35-year-old provider shortage and geographic underservice designation criteria used to allocate federal resources. PMID:22816561