Observations of Magnetic Evolution and Network Flares Driven by Photospheric Flows in the Quiet Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attie, Raphael; Thompson, Barbara J.

2017-08-01

The quiet Sun may be the biggest laboratory to study physical elementary processes of fundamental importance to space plasma. The advantage is the continuous availability of small-scale events, carrying the hidden microphysics that is responsible for larger-scale phenomena. By small-scale events, we mean spatial dimensions of a few Mm at most, and durations of less than an hour. I present here an attempt to describe and understand the coupling between the photospheric flows, the photospheric magnetic flux, and small-scale energetic transient events. By adapting and improving the highly efficient Balltracking technique for Hinode/SOT data, we relate the fine structures of the supergranular flow fields with the magnetic flux evolution. For studying the dynamics of the latter, and more precisely, the magnetic flux cancellation at sites of energy releases, we applied a new feature tracking algorithm called "Magnetic Balltracking" -- which tracks photospheric magnetic elements -- to high-resolution magnetograms from Hinode/SOT.Using observations of the low corona in soft X-rays with Hinode/XRT, we analyse the triggering mechanism of small-scale network flares. By tracking both the flow fields on the one hand, and the magnetic motions on the other hand, we relate the flows with cancelling magnetic flux. We identify two patterns of horizontal flows that act as catalysts for efficient magnetic reconnection: (i) Funnel-shaped streamlines in which the magnetic flux is carried, and (ii) large-scale vortices (~10 Mm and above) at the network intersections, in which distant magnetic features of opposite polarities seem to be sucked in and ultimately vanish. The excess energy stored in the stressed magnetic field of the vortices is sufficient to power network flares.Prospects for determining the magnetic energy budget in the quiet sun are discussed.

DOES A SCALING LAW EXIST BETWEEN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS AND SOLAR FLARES?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kahler, S. W., E-mail: AFRL.RVB.PA@kirtland.af.mil

2013-05-20

Among many other natural processes, the size distributions of solar X-ray flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events are scale-invariant power laws. The measured distributions of SEP events prove to be distinctly flatter, i.e., have smaller power-law slopes, than those of the flares. This has led to speculation that the two distributions are related through a scaling law, first suggested by Hudson, which implies a direct nonlinear physical connection between the processes producing the flares and those producing the SEP events. We present four arguments against this interpretation. First, a true scaling must relate SEP events to all flare X-raymore » events, and not to a small subset of the X-ray event population. We also show that the assumed scaling law is not mathematically valid and that although the flare X-ray and SEP event data are correlated, they are highly scattered and not necessarily related through an assumed scaling of the two phenomena. An interpretation of SEP events within the context of a recent model of fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality by Aschwanden provides a physical basis for why the SEP distributions should be flatter than those of solar flares. These arguments provide evidence against a close physical connection of flares with SEP production.« less

Cascading events in linked ecological and socioeconomic systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Debra P.C.; Sala, O.E.; Allen, Craig D.; Covich, A.; Brunson, M.

2007-01-01

Cascading events that start at small spatial scales and propagate non-linearly through time to influence larger areas often have major impacts on ecosystem goods and services. Events such as wildfires and hurricanes are increasing in frequency and magnitude as systems become more connected through globalization processes. We need to improve our understanding of these events in order to predict their occurrence, minimize potential impacts, and allow for strategic recovery. Here, we synthesize information about cascading events in systems located throughout the Americas. We discuss a variety of examples of cascading events that share a common feature: they are often driven by linked ecological and human processes across scales. In this era of globalization, we recommend studies that explicitly examine connections across scales and examine the role of connectivity among non-contiguous as well as contiguous areas.

SMALL-SCALE STRUCTURING OF ELLERMAN BOMBS AT THE SOLAR LIMB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, C. J.; Doyle, J. G.; Scullion, E. M.

2015-01-01

Ellerman bombs (EBs) have been widely studied in recent years due to their dynamic, explosive nature and apparent links to the underlying photospheric magnetic field implying that they may be formed by magnetic reconnection in the photosphere. Despite a plethora of researches discussing the morphologies of EBs, there has been a limited investigation of how these events appear at the limb, specifically, whether they manifest as vertical extensions away from the disk. In this article, we make use of high-resolution, high-cadence observations of an Active Region at the solar limb, collected by the CRisp Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) instrument, to identifymore » EBs and infer their physical properties. The upper atmosphere is also probed using the Solar Dynamic Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). We analyze 22 EB events evident within these data, finding that 20 appear to follow a parabolic path away from the solar surface at an average speed of 9 km s{sup –1}, extending away from their source by 580 km, before retreating back at a similar speed. These results show strong evidence of vertical motions associated with EBs, possibly explaining the dynamical ''flaring'' (changing in area and intensity) observed in on-disk events. Two in-depth case studies are also presented that highlight the unique dynamical nature of EBs within the lower solar atmosphere. The viewing angle of these observations allows for a direct linkage between these EBs and other small-scale events in the Hα line wings, including a potential flux emergence scenario. The findings presented here suggest that EBs could have a wider-reaching influence on the solar atmosphere than previously thought, as we reveal a direct linkage between EBs and an emerging small-scale loop, and other near-by small-scale explosive events. However, as previous research found, these extensions do not appear to impact upon the Hα line core, and are not observed by the SDO/AIA EUV filters.« less

3D magnetic field configuration of small-scale reconnection events in the solar plasma atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shimizu, T., E-mail: shimizu@solar.isas.jaxa.jp; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033

2015-10-15

The outer solar atmosphere, i.e., the corona and the chromosphere, is replete with small energy-release events, which are accompanied by transient brightening and jet-like ejections. These events are considered to be magnetic reconnection events in the solar plasma, and their dynamics have been studied using recent advanced observations from the Hinode spacecraft and other observatories in space and on the ground. These events occur at different locations in the solar atmosphere and vary in their morphology and amount of the released energy. The magnetic field configurations of these reconnection events are inferred based on observations of magnetic fields at themore » photospheric level. Observations suggest that these magnetic configurations can be classified into two groups. In the first group, two anti-parallel magnetic fields reconnect to each other, yielding a 2D emerging flux configuration. In the second group, helical or twisted magnetic flux tubes are parallel or at a relative angle to each other. Reconnection can occur only between anti-parallel components of the magnetic flux tubes and may be referred to as component reconnection. The latter configuration type may be more important for the larger class of small-scale reconnection events. The two types of magnetic configurations can be compared to counter-helicity and co-helicity configurations, respectively, in laboratory plasma collision experiments.« less

Reaching extended length-scales with temperature-accelerated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amar, Jacques G.; Shim, Yunsic

2013-03-01

In temperature-accelerated dynamics (TAD) a high-temperature molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is used to accelerate the search for the next low-temperature activated event. While TAD has been quite successful in extending the time-scales of simulations of non-equilibrium processes, due to the fact that the computational work scales approximately as the cube of the number of atoms, until recently only simulations of relatively small systems have been carried out. Recently, we have shown that by combining spatial decomposition with our synchronous sublattice algorithm, significantly improved scaling is possible. However, in this approach the size of activated events is limited by the processor size while the dynamics is not exact. Here we discuss progress in developing an alternate approach in which high-temperature parallel MD along with localized saddle-point (LSAD) calculations, are used to carry out TAD simulations without restricting the size of activated events while keeping the dynamics ``exact'' within the context of harmonic transition-state theory. In tests of our LSAD method applied to Ag/Ag(100) annealing and Cu/Cu(100) growth simulations we find significantly improved scaling of TAD, while maintaining a negligibly small error in the energy barriers. Supported by NSF DMR-0907399.

Revisiting a Meta-Analysis of Helpful Aspects of Therapy in a Community Counselling Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quick, Emma L; Dowd, Claire; Spong, Sheila

2018-01-01

This small scale mixed methods study examines helpful events in a community counselling setting, categorising impacts of events according to Timulak's [(2007). Identifying core categories of client-identified impact of helpful events in psychotherapy: A qualitative meta-analysis. "Psychotherapy Research," 17, 305-314] meta-synthesis of…

Reversible Parallel Discrete-Event Execution of Large-scale Epidemic Outbreak Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2010-01-01

The spatial scale, runtime speed and behavioral detail of epidemic outbreak simulations together require the use of large-scale parallel processing. In this paper, an optimistic parallel discrete event execution of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic outbreaks is presented, with an implementation over themore » $$\\mu$$sik simulator. Rollback support is achieved with the development of a novel reversible model that combines reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup and other runtime performance metrics of the simulation are tested on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes (up to several hundred million individuals in the largest case) are exercised.« less

A study of geomagnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, V. L.

1975-01-01

Twenty-one geomagnetic storm events during 1966 and 1970 were studied by using simultaneous interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters. Explorer 33 and 35 field and plasma data were analyzed on large-scale (hourly) and small-scale (3 min.) during the time interval coincident with initial phase of the geomagnetic storms. The solar-ecliptic Bz component turns southward at the end of the initial phase, thus triggering the main phase decrease in Dst geomagnetic field. When the Bz is already negative, its value becomes further negative. The By component also shows large fluctuations along with Bz. When there are no clear changes in the Bz component, the By shows abrupt changes at the main phase onet. On the small-scale behavior of the magnetic field and electric field (E=-VxB) studied in details for the three events, it is found that the field fluctuations in By, Bz and Ey and Ez are present in the initial phase. These fluctuations become larger just before the main phase of the storm begins. In the largescale behavior field remains quiet because the small scale variations are averaged out.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chesny, D. L.; Oluseyi, H. M.; Orange, N. B.

Ubiquitous solar atmospheric coronal and transition region bright points (BPs) are compact features overlying strong concentrations of magnetic flux. Here, we utilize high-cadence observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory to provide the first observations of extreme ultraviolet quiet-Sun (QS) network BP activity associated with sigmoidal structuring. To our knowledge, this previously unresolved fine structure has never been associated with such small-scale QS events. This QS event precedes a bi-directional jet in a compact, low-energy, and low-temperature environment, where evidence is found in support of the typical fan-spine magnetic field topology. As in active regionsmore » and micro-sigmoids, the sigmoidal arcade is likely formed via tether-cutting reconnection and precedes peak intensity enhancements and eruptive activity. Our QS BP sigmoid provides a new class of small-scale structuring exhibiting self-organized criticality that highlights a multi-scaled self-similarity between large-scale, high-temperature coronal fields and the small-scale, lower-temperature QS network. Finally, our QS BP sigmoid elevates arguments for coronal heating contributions from cooler atmospheric layers, as this class of structure may provide evidence favoring mass, energy, and helicity injections into the heliosphere.« less

Spatial and velocity statistics of inertial particles in turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bec, J.; Biferale, L.; Cencini, M.; Lanotte, A. S.; Toschi, F.

2011-12-01

Spatial and velocity statistics of heavy point-like particles in incompressible, homogeneous, and isotropic three-dimensional turbulence is studied by means of direct numerical simulations at two values of the Taylor-scale Reynolds number Reλ ~ 200 and Reλ ~ 400, corresponding to resolutions of 5123 and 20483 grid points, respectively. Particles Stokes number values range from St ≈ 0.2 to 70. Stationary small-scale particle distribution is shown to display a singular -multifractal- measure, characterized by a set of generalized fractal dimensions with a strong sensitivity on the Stokes number and a possible, small Reynolds number dependency. Velocity increments between two inertial particles depend on the relative weight between smooth events - where particle velocity is approximately the same of the fluid velocity-, and caustic contributions - when two close particles have very different velocities. The latter events lead to a non-differentiable small-scale behaviour for the relative velocity. The relative weight of these two contributions changes at varying the importance of inertia. We show that moments of the velocity difference display a quasi bi-fractal-behavior and that the scaling properties of velocity increments for not too small Stokes number are in good agreement with a recent theoretical prediction made by K. Gustavsson and B. Mehlig arXiv: 1012.1789v1 [physics.flu-dyn], connecting the saturation of velocity scaling exponents with the fractal dimension of particle clustering.

Small-scale martian polygonal terrain: Implications for liquid surface water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seibert, N.M.; Kargel, J.S.

2001-01-01

Images from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) through August 1999 were analyzed for the global distribution of small-scale polygonal terrain not clearly resolved in Viking Orbiter imagery. With very few exceptions, small-scale polygonal terrain occurs at middle to high latitudes of the northern and southern hemisphere in Hesperian-age geologic units. The largest concentration of this terrain occurs in the Utopia basin in close association with scalloped depressions (interpreted as thermokarst) and appears to represent an Amazonia event. The morphology and occurence of small polygonal terrain suggest they are either mud desiccation cracks or ice-wedge polygons. Because the small-scale polygons in Utopia and Argyre Planitiae are associated with other cold-climate permafrost or glacial features, an ice-wedge model is preferred for these areas. Both cracking mechanisms work most effectively in water- or ice-rich finegrained material and may imply the seasonal or episodic existence of liquid water at the surface.

An experimental method to verify soil conservation by check dams on the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Xu, X Z; Zhang, H W; Wang, G Q; Chen, S C; Dang, W Q

2009-12-01

A successful experiment with a physical model requires necessary conditions of similarity. This study presents an experimental method with a semi-scale physical model. The model is used to monitor and verify soil conservation by check dams in a small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China. During experiments, the model-prototype ratio of geomorphic variables was kept constant under each rainfall event. Consequently, experimental data are available for verification of soil erosion processes in the field and for predicting soil loss in a model watershed with check dams. Thus, it can predict the amount of soil loss in a catchment. This study also mentions four criteria: similarities of watershed geometry, grain size and bare land, Froude number (Fr) for rainfall event, and soil erosion in downscaled models. The efficacy of the proposed method was confirmed using these criteria in two different downscaled model experiments. The B-Model, a large scale model, simulates watershed prototype. The two small scale models, D(a) and D(b), have different erosion rates, but are the same size. These two models simulate hydraulic processes in the B-Model. Experiment results show that while soil loss in the small scale models was converted by multiplying the soil loss scale number, it was very close to that of the B-Model. Obviously, with a semi-scale physical model, experiments are available to verify and predict soil loss in a small watershed area with check dam system on the Loess Plateau, China.

Strong Scaling and a Scarcity of Small Earthquakes Point to an Important Role for Thermal Runaway in Intermediate-Depth Earthquake Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, S. A.; Prieto, G. A.; Beroza, G. C.

2015-12-01

There is strong evidence that metamorphic reactions play a role in enabling the rupture of intermediate-depth earthquakes; however, recent studies of the Bucaramanga Nest at a depth of 135-165 km under Colombia indicate that intermediate-depth seismicity shows low radiation efficiency and strong scaling of stress drop with slip/size, which suggests a dramatic weakening process, as proposed in the thermal shear instability model. Decreasing stress drop with slip and low seismic efficiency could have a measurable effect on the magnitude-frequency distribution of small earthquakes by causing them to become undetectable at substantially larger seismic moment than would be the case if stress drop were constant. We explore the population of small earthquakes in the Bucaramanga Nest using an empirical subspace detector to push the detection limit to lower magnitude. Using this approach, we find ~30,000 small, previously uncatalogued earthquakes during a 6-month period in 2013. We calculate magnitudes for these events using their relative amplitudes. Despite the additional detections, we observe a sharp deviation from a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution with a marked deficiency of events at the smallest magnitudes. This scarcity of small earthquakes is not easily ascribed to the detectability threshold; tests of our ability to recover small-magnitude waveforms of Bucaramanga Nest earthquakes in the continuous data indicate that we should be able to detect events reliably at magnitudes that are nearly a full magnitude unit smaller than the smallest earthquakes we observe. The implication is that nearly 100,000 events expected for a Gutenberg-Richter MFD are "missing," and that this scarcity of small earthquakes may provide new support for the thermal runaway mechanism in intermediate-depth earthquake mechanics.

Structure of high and low shear-stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomit, G.; de Kat, R.; Ganapathisubramani, B.

2018-01-01

Simultaneous particle image velocimetry (PIV) and wall-shear-stress sensor measurements were performed to study structures associated with shear-stress events in a flat plate turbulent boundary layer at a Reynolds number Reτ≈4000 . The PIV field of view covers 8 δ (where δ is the boundary layer thickness) along the streamwise direction and captures the entire boundary layer in the wall-normal direction. Simultaneously, wall-shear-stress measurements that capture the large-scale fluctuations were taken using a spanwise array of hot-film skin-friction sensors (spanning 2 δ ). Based on this combination of measurements, the organization of the conditional wall-normal and streamwise velocity fluctuations (u and v ) and of the Reynolds shear stress (-u v ) can be extracted. Conditional averages of the velocity field are computed by dividing the histogram of the large-scale wall-shear-stress fluctuations into four quartiles, each containing 25% of the occurrences. The conditional events corresponding to the extreme quartiles of the histogram (positive and negative) predominantly contribute to a change of velocity profile associated with the large structures and in the modulation of the small scales. A detailed examination of the Reynolds shear-stress contribution related to each of the four quartiles shows that the flow above a low wall-shear-stress event carries a larger amount of Reynolds shear stress than the other quartiles. The contribution of the small and large scales to this observation is discussed based on a scale decomposition of the velocity field.

Determining hillslope-channel connectivity in an agricultural catchment using rare-earth oxide tracers and random forests.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Rens; Temme, Arnaud; Giménez, Rafael; Casalí, Javier; Keesstra, Saskia

2017-04-01

Soil erosion from agricultural areas is a large problem, because of off-site effects like the rapid filling of reservoirs. To mitigate the problem of sediments from agricultural areas reaching the channel, reservoirs and other surface waters, it is important to understand hillslope-channel connectivity and catchment connectivity. To determine the functioning of hillslope-channel connectivity and the continuation of transport of these sediments in the channel, it is necessary to obtain data on sediment transport from the hillslopes to the channels. Simultaneously, the factors that influence sediment export out of the catchment need to be studied. For measuring hillslope-channel sediment connectivity, Rare-Earth Oxide (REO) tracers were applied to a hillslope in an agricultural catchment in Navarre, Spain, preceding the winter of 2014-2015. The results showed that during the winter there was no sediment transport from the hillslope to the channel. Analysis of precipitation data showed that total precipitation quantities did not differ much from the mean. However, precipitation intensities were low, causing little sediment mobilisation. To test the implication of the REO results at the catchment scale, two conceptual models for sediment connectivity were assessed using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning method. One model proposes that small events provide sediment for large events, while the other proposes that only large events cause sediment detachment and small events subsequently remove these sediments from near and in the channel. The RF method was applied to a daily dataset of sediment yield from the catchment (N=2451 days), and two subsets of the whole dataset: small events (N=2319) and large events (N=132). For sediment yield prediction of small events, variables related to large preceding events were the most important. The model for large events underperformed and, therefore, we could not draw any immediate conclusions whether small events influence the amount of sediment exported during large events. Both REO tracers and RF method showed that low intensity events do not contribute any sediments to the channel in the Latxaga catchment (cf. Masselink et al., 2016). Sediment dynamics are dominated by sediment mobilisation during large (high intensity) events. Sediments are for a large part exported during those events, but large amount of sediments are deposited in and near the channel after these events. These sediments are gradually removed by small events. To better understand the delivery of sediments to the channel and how large and small events influence each other more field data on hillslope-channel connectivity and within-channel sediment dynamics is necessary. Reference: Masselink, R.J.H., Keesstra, S.D., Temme, A.J.A.M., Seeger, M., Giménez, R., Casalí, J., 2016. Modelling Discharge and Sediment Yield at Catchment Scale Using Connectivity Components. Land Degrad. Dev. 27, 933-945. doi:10.1002/ldr.2512

Flash-Flood hydrological simulations at regional scale. Scale signature on road flooding vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquetin, Sandrine; Vannier, Olivier; Ollagnier, Mélody; Braud, Isabelle

2015-04-01

This work contributes to the evaluation of the dynamics of the human exposure during flash-flood events in the Mediterranean region. Understanding why and how the commuters modify their daily mobility in the Cévennes - Vivarais area (France) is the long-term objective of the study. To reach this objective, the methodology relies on three steps: i) evaluation of daily travel patterns, ii) reconstitution of road flooding events in the region based on hydrological simulation at regional scale in order to capture the time evolution and the intensity of flood and iii) identification of the daily fluctuation of the exposition according to road flooding scenarios and the time evolution of mobility patterns. This work deals with the second step. To do that, the physically based and non-calibrated hydrological model CVN (Vannier, 2013) is implemented to retrieve the hydrological signature of past flash-flood events in Southern France. Four past events are analyzed (September 2002; September 2005 (split in 2 different events); October 2008). Since the regional scale is investigated, the scales of the studied catchments range from few km2 to few hundreds of km2 where many catchments are ungauged. The evaluation is based on a multi-scale approach using complementary observations coming from post-flood experiments (for small and/or ungaugged catchments) and operational hydrological network (for larger catchments). The scales of risk (time and location of the road flooding) are also compared to observed data of road cuts. The discussion aims at improving our understanding on the hydrological processes associated with road flooding vulnerability. We specifically analyze runoff coefficient and the ratio between surface and groundwater flows at regional scale. The results show that on the overall, the three regional simulations provide good scores for the probability of detection and false alarms concerning road flooding (1600 points are analyzed for the whole region). Our evaluation procedure provides new insights on the active hydrological processes at small scales (catchments area < 10 km²) since these small scales, distributed over the whole region, are analyzed through road cuts data and post-flood field investigations. As shown in Vannier (2013), the signature of the altered geological layer is significant on the simulated discharges. For catchments under schisty geology, the simulated discharge, whatever the catchment size, is usually overestimated. Vannier, O, 2013, Apport de la modélisation hydrologique régionale à la compréhension des processus de crue en zone méditerranéenne, PhD-Thesis (in French), Grenoble University.

An Expected Value Air Combat Model Simulation Algorithm to Predict Missions Performance in Tactical Air Operations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

Approved by: Me<i W4 1tsZ7 CaifI ,KDpartmento I inistrative Science 3 ( ABSTRACT >This thesis intends to create the basic...a need for a small scale model which allows a student analyst of tactical air operations to create his own battles and to test his own strategies with...iconic model is a large or small-scale repre- sentation of states-objects, or events. For example a scale model airplance resembles the system under the

The Role of Small-Scale Processes in Solar Active Region Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Karen; Mackay, Duncan

2017-08-01

Active regions are locations of intense magnetic activity on the Sun, whose evolution can result in highly energetic eruptive phenomena such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Therefore, fast and accurate simulation of their evolution and decay is essential in the prediction of Space Weather events. In this talk we present initial results from our new model for the photospheric evolution of active region magnetic fields. Observations show that small-scale processes appear to play a role in the dispersal and decay of solar active regions, for example through cancellation at the boundary of sunspot outflows and erosion of flux by surrounding convective cells. Our active region model is coupled to our existing model for the evolution of small-scale photospheric magnetic features. Focusing first on the active region decay phase, we consider the evolution of its magnetic field due to both large-scale (e.g. differential rotation) and small-scale processes, such as its interaction with surrounding small-scale magnetic features and convective flows.This project is funded by The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland, through their Research Incentives Grant scheme.

Multifractal characterisation of a simulated surface flow: A case study with Multi-Hydro in Jouy-en-Josas, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, Auguste; Abbes, Jean-Baptiste; da Silva Rocha Paz, Igor; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2018-03-01

In this paper we suggest to innovatively use scaling laws and more specifically Universal Multifractals (UM) to analyse simulated surface runoff and compare the retrieved scaling features with the rainfall ones. The methodology is tested on a 3 km2 semi-urbanised with a steep slope study area located in the Paris area along the Bièvre River. First Multi-Hydro, a fully distributed model is validated on this catchment for four rainfall events measured with the help of a C-band radar. The uncertainty associated with small scale unmeasured rainfall, i.e. occurring below the 1 km × 1 km × 5 min observation scale, is quantified with the help of stochastic downscaled rainfall fields. It is rather significant for simulated flow and more limited on overland water depth for these rainfall events. Overland depth is found to exhibit a scaling behaviour over small scales (10 m-80 m) which can be related to fractal features of the sewer network. No direct and obvious dependency between the overland depth multifractal features (quality of the scaling and UM parameters) and the rainfall ones was found.

Hard X-Ray Constraints on Small-Scale Coronal Heating Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Andrew; Smith, David M.; Glesener, Lindsay; Klimchuk, James A.; Bradshaw, Stephen; Hannah, Iain; Vievering, Juliana; Ishikawa, Shin-Nosuke; Krucker, Sam; Christe, Steven

2017-08-01

A large body of evidence suggests that the solar corona is heated impulsively. Small-scale heating events known as nanoflares may be ubiquitous in quiet and active regions of the Sun. Hard X-ray (HXR) observations with unprecedented sensitivity >3 keV have recently been enabled through the use of focusing optics. We analyze active region spectra from the FOXSI-2 sounding rocket and the NuSTAR satellite to constrain the physical properties of nanoflares simulated with the EBTEL field-line-averaged hydrodynamics code. We model a wide range of X-ray spectra by varying the nanoflare heating amplitude, duration, delay time, and filling factor. Additional constraints on the nanoflare parameter space are determined from energy constraints and EUV/SXR data.

Bright points and ejections observed on the sun by the KORONAS-FOTON instrument TESIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulyanov, A. S.; Bogachev, S. A.; Kuzin, S. V.

2010-10-01

Five-second observations of the solar corona carried out in the FeIX 171 Å line by the KORONAS-FOTON instrument TESIS are used to study the dynamics of small-scale coronal structures emitting in and around coronal bright points. The small-scale structures of the lower corona display complex dynamics similar to those of magnetic loops located at higher levels of the solar corona. Numerous detected oscillating structures with sizes below 10 000 km display oscillation periods from 50 to 350 s. The period distributions of these structures are different for P < 150 s and P > 150 s, which implies that different oscillation modes are excited at different periods. The small-scale structures generate numerous flare-like events with energies 1024-1026 erg (nanoflares) and with a spatial density of one event per arcsecond or more observed over an area of 4 × 1011 km2. Nanoflares are not associated with coronal bright points, and almost uniformly cover the solar disk in the observation region. The ejections of solar material from the coronal bright points demonstrate velocities of 80-110 km/s.

Multiscale models and stochastic simulation methods for computing rare but key binding events in cell biology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guerrier, C.; Holcman, D., E-mail: david.holcman@ens.fr; Mathematical Institute, Oxford OX2 6GG, Newton Institute

The main difficulty in simulating diffusion processes at a molecular level in cell microdomains is due to the multiple scales involving nano- to micrometers. Few to many particles have to be simulated and simultaneously tracked while there are exploring a large portion of the space for binding small targets, such as buffers or active sites. Bridging the small and large spatial scales is achieved by rare events representing Brownian particles finding small targets and characterized by long-time distribution. These rare events are the bottleneck of numerical simulations. A naive stochastic simulation requires running many Brownian particles together, which is computationallymore » greedy and inefficient. Solving the associated partial differential equations is also difficult due to the time dependent boundary conditions, narrow passages and mixed boundary conditions at small windows. We present here two reduced modeling approaches for a fast computation of diffusing fluxes in microdomains. The first approach is based on a Markov mass-action law equations coupled to a Markov chain. The second is a Gillespie's method based on the narrow escape theory for coarse-graining the geometry of the domain into Poissonian rates. The main application concerns diffusion in cellular biology, where we compute as an example the distribution of arrival times of calcium ions to small hidden targets to trigger vesicular release.« less

Heterogeneity and scaling land-atmospheric water and energy fluxes in climate systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

The effects of small-scale heterogeneity in land surface characteristics on the large-scale fluxes of water and energy in land-atmosphere system has become a central focus of many of the climatology research experiments. The acquisition of high resolution land surface data through remote sensing and intensive land-climatology field experiments (like HAPEX and FIFE) has provided data to investigate the interactions between microscale land-atmosphere interactions and macroscale models. One essential research question is how to account for the small scale heterogeneities and whether 'effective' parameters can be used in the macroscale models. To address this question of scaling, three modeling experiments were performed and are reviewed in the paper. The first is concerned with the aggregation of parameters and inputs for a terrestrial water and energy balance model. The second experiment analyzed the scaling behavior of hydrologic responses during rain events and between rain events. The third experiment compared the hydrologic responses from distributed models with a lumped model that uses spatially constant inputs and parameters. The results show that the patterns of small scale variations can be represented statistically if the scale is larger than a representative elementary area scale, which appears to be about 2 - 3 times the correlation length of the process. For natural catchments this appears to be about 1 - 2 sq km. The results concerning distributed versus lumped representations are more complicated. For conditions when the processes are nonlinear, then lumping results in biases; otherwise a one-dimensional model based on 'equivalent' parameters provides quite good results. Further research is needed to fully understand these conditions.

Source parameters of the 1999 Osa peninsula (Costa Rica) earthquake sequence from spectral ratios analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdecchia, A.; Harrington, R. M.; Kirkpatrick, J. D.

2017-12-01

Many observations suggest that duration and size scale in a self-similar way for most earthquakes. Deviations from the expected scaling would suggest that some physical feature on the fault surface influences the speed of rupture differently at different length scales. Determining whether differences in scaling exist between small and large earthquakes is complicated by the fact that duration estimates of small earthquakes are often distorted by travel-path and site effects. However, when carefully estimated, scaling relationships between earthquakes may provide important clues about fault geometry and the spatial scales over which it affects fault rupture speed. The Mw 6.9, 20 August 1999, Quepos earthquake occurred on the plate boundary thrust fault along southern Costa Rica margin where the subducting seafloor is cut by numerous normal faults. The mainshock and aftershock sequence were recorded by land and (partially by) ocean bottom (OBS) seismic arrays deployed as part of the CRSEIZE experiment. Here we investigate the size-duration scaling of the mainshock and relocated aftershocks on the plate boundary to determine if a change in scaling exists that is consistent with a change in fault surface geometry at a specific length scale. We use waveforms from 5 short-period land stations and 12 broadband OBS stations to estimate corner frequencies (the inverse of duration) and seismic moment for several aftershocks on the plate interface. We first use spectral amplitudes of single events to estimate corner frequencies and seismic moments. We then adopt a spectral ratio method to correct for non-source-related effects and refine the corner frequency estimation. For the spectral ratio approach, we use pairs of earthquakes with similar waveforms (correlation coefficient > 0.7), with waveform similarity implying event co-location. Preliminary results from single spectra show similar corner frequency values among events of 0.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.6, suggesting a decrease in static stress drop with magnitude. Our next step is to refine corner frequency estimates using spectral ratios to see if the trend in corner frequency persists with small events, and to extend the magnitude range of the estimations using land-based recordings of the mainshock and two largest aftershocks, which occurred prior to the Osa array deployment.

Wrinkle structures—a critical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porada, Hubertus; Bouougri, El Hafid

2007-04-01

In this paper, a variety of so-called 'wrinkle structures' is reviewed in an attempt to help distinguish between crinkly decorations arising from physical processes that acted on siliciclastic bedding surfaces, and true microbially induced 'wrinkle structures'. Two types of small-scale, microbially induced sedimentary structures are prominent due to their distinct geometry and mode of occurrence: (1) 'elephant skin' textures, characterized by reticulate patterns of sharp-crested ridges forming mm- to cm-scale polygons, occurring on argillite or argillaceous veneers above fine-grained sandstone and likely reflecting growth structures of microbial, mats (2) 'Kinneyia' structures, characterized by mm-scale flat-topped, winding ridges and intervening troughs and pits, sometimes resembling small-scale interference ripples. 'Kinneyia' structures usually occur on upper surfaces of siltstone/sandstone beds, themselves frequently event deposits, and are thought to have formed beneath microbial mats. Additionally, more linear variations of mat growth structures, partly resembling small-scale 'α-petees' may be developed. Finally, some wrinkly structures resulting from tractional mat deformation or mat slumping are occasionally preserved. These may appear as arcuate belts of non-penetrative, small-scale folds or as wrinkled bulges on otherwise flat surfaces. 'Wrinkle structures' as indicators for the former presence of mats gain in importance if other mat-related structures are additionally observed in the same clastic succession, e.g. 'sand chips' (sandy intraclasts) or spindle-shaped or sinuously curved to circular sand cracks, frequently combined in networks. Furthermore, appropriate lithologies and facies are required. For instance, if compared with the distribution of modern cohesive microbial mats, laminated siltstone/argillite with intercalated siltstone/sandstone beds representing event deposits in tidal flat successions would be compatible with microbial mat development. Within a variety of physically induced small-scale wrinkly structures, miniature load structures may, above all, be misinterpreted as microbially induced 'wrinkle structures', due to their similar size and appearance, and their comparatively frequent occurrence.

SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC ISLANDS IN THE SOLAR WIND AND THEIR ROLE IN PARTICLE ACCELERATION. I. DYNAMICS OF MAGNETIC ISLANDS NEAR THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khabarova, O.; Zank, G. P.; Li, G.

2015-08-01

Increases of ion fluxes in the keV–MeV range are sometimes observed near the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during periods when other sources are absent. These resemble solar energetic particle events, but the events are weaker and apparently local. Conventional explanations based on either shock acceleration of charged particles or particle acceleration due to magnetic reconnection at interplanetary current sheets (CSs) are not persuasive. We suggest instead that recurrent magnetic reconnection occurs at the HCS and smaller CSs in the solar wind, a consequence of which is particle energization by the dynamically evolving secondary CSs and magnetic islands. The effectiveness of themore » trapping and acceleration process associated with magnetic islands depends in part on the topology of the HCS. We show that the HCS possesses ripples superimposed on the large-scale flat or wavy structure. We conjecture that the ripples can efficiently confine plasma and provide tokamak-like conditions that are favorable for the appearance of small-scale magnetic islands that merge and/or contract. Particles trapped in the vicinity of merging islands and experiencing multiple small-scale reconnection events are accelerated by the induced electric field and experience first-order Fermi acceleration in contracting magnetic islands according to the transport theory of Zank et al. We present multi-spacecraft observations of magnetic island merging and particle energization in the absence of other sources, providing support for theory and simulations that show particle energization by reconnection related processes of magnetic island merging and contraction.« less

Reverse flow events and small-scale effects in the cusp ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicher, A.; Ilyasov, A. A.; Miloch, W. J.; Chernyshov, A. A.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Moen, J. I.; Abe, T.; Saito, Y.

2016-10-01

We report in situ measurements of plasma irregularities associated with a reverse flow event (RFE) in the cusp F region ionosphere. The Investigation of Cusp Irregularities 3 (ICI-3) sounding rocket, while flying through a RFE, encountered several regions with density irregularities down to meter scales. We address in detail the region with the most intense small-scale fluctuations in both the density and in the AC electric field, which were observed on the equatorward edge of a flow shear, and coincided with a double-humped jet of fast flow. Due to its long-wavelength and low-frequency character, the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) alone cannot be the source of the observed irregularities. Using ICI-3 data as inputs, we perform a numerical stability analysis of the inhomogeneous energy-density-driven instability (IEDDI) and demonstrate that it can excite electrostatic ion cyclotron waves in a wide range of wave numbers and frequencies for the electric field configuration observed in that region, which can give rise to the observed small-scale turbulence. The IEDDI can seed as a secondary process on steepened vortices created by a primary KHI. Such an interplay between macroprocesses and microprocesses could be an important mechanism for ion heating in relation to RFEs.

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Onfroy, T.; Leblois, E.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.

2013-07-01

The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible but not yet occurred flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2012 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90% of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of CCR claim database has shown that approximately 45% of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45% outside. 10% other percent are due to seasurge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (MACIF) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

Peculiarity of Seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal Region, Azerbaijan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ismail-Zadeh, Tahir T.

2006-03-23

The study of seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal region demonstrates a temporal correlation of small events in the region with the moderate events in Caucasus for the time interval of 1980 to 1990. It is shown that the processes resulting in deformation and tectonic movements of main structural elements of the Caucasus region are internal and are not related to large-scale tectonic processes. A week dependence of the regional movements on the large-scale motion of the lithospheric plates and microplates is apparent from another geological and geodetic data as well.

Micro-Scale Genomic DNA Copy Number Aberrations as Another Means of Mutagenesis in Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Chao, Hann-Hsiang; He, Xiaping; Parker, Joel S.; Zhao, Wei; Perou, Charles M.

2012-01-01

Introduction In breast cancer, the basal-like subtype has high levels of genomic instability relative to other breast cancer subtypes with many basal-like-specific regions of aberration. There is evidence that this genomic instability extends to smaller scale genomic aberrations, as shown by a previously described micro-deletion event in the PTEN gene in the Basal-like SUM149 breast cancer cell line. Methods We sought to identify if small regions of genomic DNA copy number changes exist by using a high density, gene-centric Comparative Genomic Hybridizations (CGH) array on cell lines and primary tumors. A custom tiling array for CGH (244,000 probes, 200 bp tiling resolution) was created to identify small regions of genomic change, which was focused on previously identified basal-like-specific, and general cancer genes. Tumor genomic DNA from 94 patients and 2 breast cancer cell lines was labeled and hybridized to these arrays. Aberrations were called using SWITCHdna and the smallest 25% of SWITCHdna-defined genomic segments were called micro-aberrations (<64 contiguous probes, ∼ 15 kb). Results Our data showed that primary tumor breast cancer genomes frequently contained many small-scale copy number gains and losses, termed micro-aberrations, most of which are undetectable using typical-density genome-wide aCGH arrays. The basal-like subtype exhibited the highest incidence of these events. These micro-aberrations sometimes altered expression of the involved gene. We confirmed the presence of the PTEN micro-amplification in SUM149 and by mRNA-seq showed that this resulted in loss of expression of all exons downstream of this event. Micro-aberrations disproportionately affected the 5′ regions of the affected genes, including the promoter region, and high frequency of micro-aberrations was associated with poor survival. Conclusion Using a high-probe-density, gene-centric aCGH microarray, we present evidence of small-scale genomic aberrations that can contribute to gene inactivation. These events may contribute to tumor formation through mechanisms not detected using conventional DNA copy number analyses. PMID:23284754

Small-Scale Experiments.10-gallon drum experiment summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenberg, David M.

2015-02-05

A series of sub-scale (10-gallon) drum experiments were conducted to characterize the reactivity, heat generation, and gas generation of mixtures of chemicals believed to be present in the drum (68660) known to have breached in association with the radiation release event at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) on February 14, 2014, at a scale expected to be large enough to replicate the environment in that drum but small enough to be practical, safe, and cost effective. These tests were not intended to replicate all the properties of drum 68660 or the event that led to its breach, or tomore » validate a particular hypothesis of the release event. They were intended to observe, in a controlled environment and with suitable diagnostics, the behavior of simple mixtures of chemicals in order to determine if they could support reactivity that could result in ignition or if some other ingredient or event would be necessary. There is a significant amount of uncertainty into the exact composition of the barrel; a limited sub-set of known components was identified, reviewed with Technical Assessment Team (TAT) members, and used in these tests. This set of experiments was intended to provide a framework to postulate realistic, data-supported hypotheses for processes that occur in a “68660-like” configuration, not definitively prove what actually occurred in 68660.« less

Investigation of relationships between parameters of solar nano-flares and solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safari, Hossein; Javaherian, Mohsen; Kaki, Bardia

2016-07-01

Solar flares are one of the important coronal events which are originated in solar magnetic activity. They release lots of energy during the interstellar medium, right after the trigger. Flare prediction can play main role in avoiding eventual damages on the Earth. Here, to interpret solar large-scale events (e.g., flares), we investigate relationships between small-scale events (nano-flares) and large-scale events (e.g., flares). In our method, by using simulations of nano-flares based on Monte Carlo method, the intensity time series of nano-flares are simulated. Then, the solar full disk images taken at 171 angstrom recorded by SDO/AIA are employed. Some parts of the solar disk (quiet Sun (QS), coronal holes (CHs), and active regions (ARs)) are cropped and the time series of these regions are extracted. To compare the simulated intensity time series of nano-flares with the intensity time series of real data extracted from different parts of the Sun, the artificial neural networks is employed. Therefore, we are able to extract physical parameters of nano-flares like both kick and decay rate lifetime, and the power of their power-law distributions. The procedure of variations in the power value of power-law distributions within QS, CH is similar to AR. Thus, by observing the small part of the Sun, we can follow the procedure of solar activity.

Slow Slip and Earthquake Nucleation in Meter-Scale Laboratory Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mclaskey, G.

2017-12-01

The initiation of dynamic rupture is thought to be preceded by a quasistatic nucleation phase. Observations of recent earthquakes sometimes support this by illuminating slow slip and foreshocks in the vicinity of the eventual hypocenter. I describe laboratory earthquake experiments conducted on two large-scale loading machines at Cornell University that provide insight into the way earthquake nucleation varies with normal stress, healing time, and loading rate. The larger of the two machines accommodates a 3 m long granite sample, and when loaded to 7 MPa stress levels, we observe dynamic rupture events that are preceded by a measureable nucleation zone with dimensions on the order of 1 m. The smaller machine accommodates a 0.76 m sample that is roughly the same size as the nucleation zone. On this machine, small variations in nucleation properties result in measurable differences in slip events, and we generate both dynamic rupture events (> 0.1 m/s slip rates) and slow slip events ( 0.001 to 30 mm/s slip rates). Slow events occur when instability cannot fully nucleate before reaching the sample ends. Dynamic events occur after long healing times or abrupt increases in loading rate which suggests that these factors shrink the spatial and temporal extents of the nucleation zone. Arrays of slip, strain, and ground motion sensors installed on the sample allow us to quantify seismic coupling and study details of premonitory slip and afterslip. The slow slip events we observe are primarily aseismic (less than 1% of the seismic coupling of faster events) and produce swarms of very small M -6 to M -8 events. These mechanical and seismic interactions suggest that faults with transitional behavior—where creep, small earthquakes, and tremor are often observed—could become seismically coupled if loaded rapidly, either by a slow slip front or dynamic rupture of an earthquake that nucleated elsewhere.

A Classification of Mediterranean Cyclones Based on Global Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Atlas, Robert

2003-01-01

The Mediterranean Sea region is dominated by baroclinic and orographic cyclogenesis. However, previous work has demonstrated the existence of rare but intense subsynoptic-scale cyclones displaying remarkable similarities to tropical cyclones and polar lows, including, but not limited to, an eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. The terms polar low and tropical cyclone have been often used interchangeably when referring to small-scale, convective Mediterranean vortices and no definitive statement has been made so far on their nature, be it sub-tropical or polar. Moreover, most of the classifications of Mediterranean cyclones have neglected the small-scale convective vortices, focusing only on the larger-scale and far more common baroclinic cyclones. A classification of all Mediterranean cyclones based on operational global analyses is proposed The classification is based on normalized horizontal shear, vertical shear, scale, low versus mid-level vorticity, low-level temperature gradients, and sea surface temperatures. In the classification system there is a continuum of possible events, according to the increasing role of barotropic instability and decreasing role of baroclinic instability. One of the main results is that the Mediterranean tropical cyclone-like vortices and the Mediterranean polar lows appear to be different types of events, in spite of the apparent similarity of their satellite imagery. A consistent terminology is adopted, stating that tropical cyclone- like vortices are the less baroclinic of all, followed by polar lows, cold small-scale cyclones and finally baroclinic lee cyclones. This classification is based on all the cyclones which occurred in a four-year period (between 1996 and 1999). Four cyclones, selected among all the ones which developed during this time-frame, are analyzed. Particularly, the classification allows to discriminate between two cyclones (occurred in October 1996 and in March 1999) which both display a very well-defined eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. According to our classification system, the two events are dynamically different and can be categorized as being respectively a tropical cyclone-like vortex and well-developed polar low.

Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

2016-05-01

In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

Characteristics of EUV Coronal Jets Observed with STEREO/SECCHI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisticò, G.; Bothmer, V.; Patsourakos, S.; Zimbardo, G.

2009-10-01

In this paper we present the first comprehensive statistical study of EUV coronal jets observed with the SECCHI (Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation) imaging suites of the two STEREO spacecraft. A catalogue of 79 polar jets is presented, identified from simultaneous EUV and white-light coronagraph observations, taken during the time period March 2007 to April 2008, when solar activity was at a minimum. The twin spacecraft angular separation increased during this time interval from 2 to 48 degrees. The appearances of the coronal jets were always correlated with underlying small-scale chromospheric bright points. A basic characterization of the morphology and identification of the presence of helical structure were established with respect to recently proposed models for their origin and temporal evolution. Though each jet appeared morphologically similar in the coronagraph field of view, in the sense of a narrow collimated outward flow of matter, at the source region in the low corona the jet showed different characteristics, which may correspond to different magnetic structures. A classification of the events with respect to previous jet studies shows that amongst the 79 events there were 37 Eiffel tower-type jet events, commonly interpreted as a small-scale (˜35 arc sec) magnetic bipole reconnecting with the ambient unipolar open coronal magnetic fields at its loop tops, and 12 lambda-type jet events commonly interpreted as reconnection with the ambient field happening at the bipole footpoints. Five events were termed micro-CME-type jet events because they resembled the classical coronal mass ejections (CMEs) but on much smaller scales. The remaining 25 cases could not be uniquely classified. Thirty-one of the total number of events exhibited a helical magnetic field structure, indicative for a torsional motion of the jet around its axis of propagation. A few jets are also found in equatorial coronal holes. In this study we present sample events for each of the jet types using both, STEREO A and STEREO B, perspectives. The typical lifetimes in the SECCHI/EUVI ( Extreme UltraViolet Imager) field of view between 1.0 to 1.7 R ⊙ and in SECCHI/COR1 field of view between 1.4 to 4 R ⊙ are obtained, and the derived speeds are roughly estimated. In summary, the observations support the assumption of continuous small-scale reconnection as an intrinsic feature of the solar corona, with its role for the heating of the corona, particle acceleration, structuring and acceleration of the solar wind remaining to be explored in more detail in further studies.

Increasing Social Capital and Personal Efficacy through Small-Scale Community Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molitor, Fred; Rossi, Melissa; Branton, Lisa; Field, Julie

2011-01-01

California's voter-approved Children and Families Act of 1998 calls for money collected from tobacco taxes to support services for families with children up to 5 years of age. Sacramento County uses a portion of its allocation for small community grants with the specific intent of building social capital among neighbors and across communities. The…

Improving the Representation of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitating Events over Land in a Regional Climate System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazoyer, M.; Roehrig, R.; Nuissier, O.; Duffourg, F.; Somot, S.

2017-12-01

Most regional climate models (RCSMs) face difficulties in representing a reasonable pre-cipitation probability density function in the Mediterranean area and especially over land.Small amounts of rain are too frequent, preventing any realistic representation of droughts orheat waves, while the intensity of heavy precipitating events is underestimated and not welllocated by most state-of-the-art RCSMs using parameterized convection (resolution from10 to 50 km). Convective parameterization is a key point for the representation of suchevents and recently, the new physics implemented in the CNRM-RCSM has been shown toremarkably improve it, even at a 50-km scale.The present study seeks to further analyse the representation of heavy precipitating eventsby this new version of CNRM-RCSM using a process oriented approach. We focus on oneparticular event in the south-east of France, over the Cévennes. Two hindcast experimentswith the CNRM-RCSM (12 and 50 km) are performed and compared with a simulationbased on the convection-permitting model Meso-NH, which makes use of a very similarsetup as CNRM-RCSM hindcasts. The role of small-scale features of the regional topogra-phy and its interaction with the impinging large-scale flow in triggering the convective eventare investigated. This study provides guidance in the ongoing implementation and use of aspecific parameterization dedicated to account for subgrid-scale orography in the triggeringand closure conditions of the CNRM-RCSM convection scheme.

Development of a Small-Scale, High Efficiency Bioremediation System for Removing Nitrate from Nursery Runoff Water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrate concentrations in runoff water from the nursery ranged from 70 to 253 mg NO3-N/L. An estimated 62 to 67% of the nitrate applied during fertigation events left the production site in runoff water. Irrigation losses during these events accounted for 36 to 49% of the amount applied, with flow r...

Jets in Polar Coronal Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scullion, E.; Popescu, M. D.; Banerjee, D.; Doyle, J. G.; Erdélyi, R.

2009-10-01

Here, we explore the nature of small-scale jet-like structures and their possible relation to explosive events and other known transient features, like spicules and macrospicules, using high-resolution spectroscopy obtained with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation instrument. We present a highly resolved spectroscopic analysis and line parameter study of time-series data for jets occurring on-disk and off-limb in both a northern and a southern coronal hole. The analysis reveals many small-scale transients which rapidly propagate between the mid-transition region (N IV 765 Å line formation: 140,000 K) and the lower corona (Ne VIII 770 Å line formation: 630,000 K). In one example, a strong jet-like event is associated with a cool feature not present in the Ne VIII 770 Å line radiance or Doppler velocity maps. Another similar event is observed, but with a hot component, which could be perceived as a blinker. Our data reveal fast, repetitive plasma outflows with blueshift velocities of ≈145 km s-1 in the lower solar atmosphere. The data suggest a strong role for smaller jets (spicules), as a precursor to macrospicule formation, which may have a common origin with explosive events.

Identifying Preserved Storm Events on Beaches from Trenches and Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; Gallagher, E. L.; McNinch, J.; Reniers, A.; Koktas, M.

2014-12-01

Recent research suggests that even small scale variations in grain size in the shallow stratigraphy of sandy beaches can significantly influence large-scale morphology change. However, few quantitative studies of variations in shallow stratigraphic layers, as differentiated by variations in mean grain size, have been conducted, in no small part due to the difficulty of collecting undisturbed sediment cores in the energetic lower beach and swash zone. Due to this lack of quantitative stratigraphic grain size data, most coastal morphology models assume that uniform grain sizes dominate sandy beaches, allowing for little to no temporal or spatial variations in grain size heterogeneity. In a first-order attempt to quantify small-scale, temporal and spatial variations in beach stratigraphy, thirty-five vibracores were collected at the USACE Field Research Facility (FRF), Duck, NC, in March-April of 2014 using the FRF's Coastal Research and Amphibious Buggy (CRAB). Vibracores were collected at set locations along a cross-shore profile from the toe of the dune to a water depth of ~1m in the surf zone. Vibracores were repeatedly collected from the same locations throughout a tidal cycle, as well as pre- and post a nor'easter event. In addition, two ~1.5m deep trenches were dug in the cross-shore and along-shore directions (each ~14m in length) after coring was completed to allow better interpretation of the stratigraphic sequences observed in the vibracores. The elevations of coherent stratigraphic layers, as revealed in vibracore-based fence diagrams and trench data, are used to relate specific observed stratigraphic sequences to individual storm events observed at the FRF. These data provide a first-order, quantitative examination of the small-scale temporal and spatial variability of shallow grain size along an open, sandy coastline. The data will be used to refine morphological model predictions to include variations in grain size and associated shallow stratigraphy.

A New Event Builder for CMS Run II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albertsson, K.; Andre, J.-M.; Andronidis, A.; Behrens, U.; Branson, J.; Chaze, O.; Cittolin, S.; Darlea, G.-L.; Deldicque, C.; Dobson, M.; Dupont, A.; Erhan, S.; Gigi, D.; Glege, F.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Hegeman, J.; Holzner, A.; Jimenez-Estupiñán, R.; Masetti, L.; Meijers, F.; Meschi, E.; Mommsen, R. K.; Morovic, S.; Nunez-Barranco-Fernandez, C.; O'Dell, V.; Orsini, L.; Paus, C.; Petrucci, A.; Pieri, M.; Racz, A.; Roberts, P.; Sakulin, H.; Schwick, C.; Stieger, B.; Sumorok, K.; Veverka, J.; Zaza, S.; Zejdl, P.

2015-12-01

The data acquisition system (DAQ) of the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) assembles events at a rate of 100 kHz, transporting event data at an aggregate throughput of 100GB/s to the high-level trigger (HLT) farm. The DAQ system has been redesigned during the LHC shutdown in 2013/14. The new DAQ architecture is based on state-of-the-art network technologies for the event building. For the data concentration, 10/40 Gbps Ethernet technologies are used together with a reduced TCP/IP protocol implemented in FPGA for a reliable transport between custom electronics and commercial computing hardware. A 56 Gbps Infiniband FDR CLOS network has been chosen for the event builder. This paper discusses the software design, protocols, and optimizations for exploiting the hardware capabilities. We present performance measurements from small-scale prototypes and from the full-scale production system.

A new event builder for CMS Run II

DOE PAGES

Albertsson, K.; Andre, J-M; Andronidis, A.; ...

2015-12-23

The data acquisition system (DAQ) of the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) assembles events at a rate of 100 kHz, transporting event data at an aggregate throughput of 100 GB/s to the high-level trigger (HLT) farm. The DAQ system has been redesigned during the LHC shutdown in 2013/14. The new DAQ architecture is based on state-of-the-art network technologies for the event building. For the data concentration, 10/40 Gbps Ethernet technologies are used together with a reduced TCP/IP protocol implemented in FPGA for a reliable transport between custom electronics and commercial computing hardware. A 56 Gbps Innibandmore » FDR CLOS network has been chosen for the event builder. This paper discusses the software design, protocols, and optimizations for exploiting the hardware capabilities. In conclusion, ee present performance measurements from small-scale prototypes and from the full-scale production system.« less

A new model for extinction and recolonization in two dimensions: quantifying phylogeography.

PubMed

Barton, Nicholas H; Kelleher, Jerome; Etheridge, Alison M

2010-09-01

Classical models of gene flow fail in three ways: they cannot explain large-scale patterns; they predict much more genetic diversity than is observed; and they assume that loosely linked genetic loci evolve independently. We propose a new model that deals with these problems. Extinction events kill some fraction of individuals in a region. These are replaced by offspring from a small number of parents, drawn from the preexisting population. This model of evolution forwards in time corresponds to a backwards model, in which ancestral lineages jump to a new location if they are hit by an event, and may coalesce with other lineages that are hit by the same event. We derive an expression for the identity in allelic state, and show that, over scales much larger than the largest event, this converges to the classical value derived by Wright and Malécot. However, rare events that cover large areas cause low genetic diversity, large-scale patterns, and correlations in ancestry between unlinked loci. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Emily C.; Wanjohi, James Nyaga; Ellenburg, Walter Lee; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Mugo, Robinson M.; Flores Cordova, Africa Ixmucane; Irwin, Daniel; Case, Jonathan; Malaso, Susan; Sedah, Absae

2017-01-01

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, E. C.; Nyaga, J. W.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Limaye, A. S.; Mugo, R. M.; Flores Cordova, A. I.; Irwin, D.; Case, J.; Malaso, S.; Sedah, A.

2017-12-01

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of 1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about 200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately $80 annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

2014-01-01

We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

Multi-scale comparison of source parameter estimation using empirical Green's function approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Cheng, Y.

2015-12-01

Analysis of earthquake source parameters requires correction of path effect, site response, and instrument responses. Empirical Green's function (EGF) method is one of the most effective methods in removing path effects and station responses by taking the spectral ratio between a larger and smaller event. Traditional EGF method requires identifying suitable event pairs, and analyze each event individually. This allows high quality estimations for strictly selected events, however, the quantity of resolvable source parameters is limited, which challenges the interpretation of spatial-temporal coherency. On the other hand, methods that exploit the redundancy of event-station pairs are proposed, which utilize the stacking technique to obtain systematic source parameter estimations for a large quantity of events at the same time. This allows us to examine large quantity of events systematically, facilitating analysis of spatial-temporal patterns, and scaling relationship. However, it is unclear how much resolution is scarified during this process. In addition to the empirical Green's function calculation, choice of model parameters and fitting methods also lead to biases. Here, using two regional focused arrays, the OBS array in the Mendocino region, and the borehole array in the Salton Sea geothermal field, I compare the results from the large scale stacking analysis, small-scale cluster analysis, and single event-pair analysis with different fitting methods to systematically compare the results within completely different tectonic environment, in order to quantify the consistency and inconsistency in source parameter estimations, and the associated problems.

Hybrid Markov-mass action law model for cell activation by rare binding events: Application to calcium induced vesicular release at neuronal synapses.

PubMed

Guerrier, Claire; Holcman, David

2016-10-18

Binding of molecules, ions or proteins to small target sites is a generic step of cell activation. This process relies on rare stochastic events where a particle located in a large bulk has to find small and often hidden targets. We present here a hybrid discrete-continuum model that takes into account a stochastic regime governed by rare events and a continuous regime in the bulk. The rare discrete binding events are modeled by a Markov chain for the encounter of small targets by few Brownian particles, for which the arrival time is Poissonian. The large ensemble of particles is described by mass action laws. We use this novel model to predict the time distribution of vesicular release at neuronal synapses. Vesicular release is triggered by the binding of few calcium ions that can originate either from the synaptic bulk or from the entry through calcium channels. We report here that the distribution of release time is bimodal although it is triggered by a single fast action potential. While the first peak follows a stimulation, the second corresponds to the random arrival over much longer time of ions located in the synaptic terminal to small binding vesicular targets. To conclude, the present multiscale stochastic modeling approach allows studying cellular events based on integrating discrete molecular events over several time scales.

Dislocation dynamics simulations of plasticity at small scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Caizhi

2010-01-01

As metallic structures and devices are being created on a dimension comparable to the length scales of the underlying dislocation microstructures, the mechanical properties of them change drastically. Since such small structures are increasingly common in modern technologies, there is an emergent need to understand the critical roles of elasticity, plasticity, and fracture in small structures. Dislocation dynamics (DD) simulations, in which the dislocations are the simulated entities, offer a way to extend length scales beyond those of atomistic simulations and the results from DD simulations can be directly compared with the micromechanical tests. The primary objective of this researchmore » is to use 3-D DD simulations to study the plastic deformation of nano- and micro-scale materials and understand the correlation between dislocation motion, interactions and the mechanical response. Specifically, to identify what critical events (i.e., dislocation multiplication, cross-slip, storage, nucleation, junction and dipole formation, pinning etc.) determine the deformation response and how these change from bulk behavior as the system decreases in size and correlate and improve our current knowledge of bulk plasticity with the knowledge gained from the direct observations of small-scale plasticity. Our simulation results on single crystal micropillars and polycrystalline thin films can march the experiment results well and capture the essential features in small-scale plasticity. Furthermore, several simple and accurate models have been developed following our simulation results and can reasonably predict the plastic behavior of small scale materials.« less

Using Discrete Event Simulation for Programming Model Exploration at Extreme-Scale: Macroscale Components for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilke, Jeremiah J; Kenny, Joseph P.

2015-02-01

Discrete event simulation provides a powerful mechanism for designing and testing new extreme- scale programming models for high-performance computing. Rather than debug, run, and wait for results on an actual system, design can first iterate through a simulator. This is particularly useful when test beds cannot be used, i.e. to explore hardware or scales that do not yet exist or are inaccessible. Here we detail the macroscale components of the structural simulation toolkit (SST). Instead of depending on trace replay or state machines, the simulator is architected to execute real code on real software stacks. Our particular user-space threading frameworkmore » allows massive scales to be simulated even on small clusters. The link between the discrete event core and the threading framework allows interesting performance metrics like call graphs to be collected from a simulated run. Performance analysis via simulation can thus become an important phase in extreme-scale programming model and runtime system design via the SST macroscale components.« less

Magnetosheath quasi-trapped distributions and ion flows associated with reconnection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neff, J. E.; Speiser, T. W.; Williams, D. J.

1987-01-01

Using a sample of ISEE 1 and 2 magnetopause crossings previously identified as times of quasi-steady reconnection, flows of medium energy ions in the magnetosheath are identified. The paper then investigates the particle pitch angle distribution immediately before and after each of these events for the signature of quasi-trapped distributions of energetic ions. Several of the ion flows identified were observed simultaneously with previously identified flux transfer events (FTEs). While FTEs identified from the magnetometer tracings typically show evidence of ion flows, the converse is not necessarily true. However, all properties of the magnetosheath ion flows are the same regardless of whether an FTE can be identified from the magnetometer data. Evidence is found for small-scale reconnection processes (FTEs, ion flows) embedded within a larger region of interconnected field, which is traced out by the quasi-trapped particles. Quasi-trapped distributions of medium-energy ions are seen to sandwich reconnection-associated ion flows in the magnetosheath. The results of this survey have been used to suggest a morphology for reconnection events that incorporates both large- and small-scale features.

Controls on carbon consumption during Alaskan wildland fires

Treesearch

Eric S. Kasischke; Elizabeth E. Hoy

2012-01-01

A method was developed to estimate carbon consumed during wildland fires in interior Alaska based on medium-spatial scale data (60 m cell size) generated on a daily basis. Carbon consumption estimates were developed for 41 fire events in the large fire year of 2004 and 34 fire events from the small fire years of 2006-2008. Total carbon consumed during the large fire...

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, V. L.; Wiskerchen, M. J.

1975-01-01

A study has been conducted of a large number of geomagnetic storms occurring during the period from 1966 to 1970. Questions of data selection are discussed and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field during the initial phase is examined. Small-scale interplanetary fields during the initial phase are also considered, taking into account important features of small-scale variations in the interplanetary field and plasma for three storms. Details concerning 23 geomagnetic storms and the interplanetary magnetic field are presented in a table. A study of the initial phase of these storms indicates that in most of these events, the solar-ecliptic Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward when the main phase decrease begins.

A mechanistic assessment of nutrient flushing at the catchment scale

Treesearch

Willem J. van Verseveld; Jeffrey J. McDonnell; Kate Lajtha

2008-01-01

This paper mechanistically assesses the flushing mechanism of DOC, DON, and DIN at the hillslope and catchment scales during two storm events, in a small catchment (WS10), H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Using a combination of natural tracer and hydrometric data, and end-member mixing analysis, we were able to describe the...

Discrete Event Modeling and Massively Parallel Execution of Epidemic Outbreak Phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2011-01-01

In complex phenomena such as epidemiological outbreaks, the intensity of inherent feedback effects and the significant role of transients in the dynamics make simulation the only effective method for proactive, reactive or post-facto analysis. The spatial scale, runtime speed, and behavioral detail needed in detailed simulations of epidemic outbreaks make it necessary to use large-scale parallel processing. Here, an optimistic parallel execution of a new discrete event formulation of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic propagation is presented to facilitate in dramatically increasing the fidelity and speed by which epidemiological simulations can be performed. Rollback support needed during optimistic parallelmore » execution is achieved by combining reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup of over 5,500 and other runtime performance metrics of the system are observed with weak-scaling execution on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability with a weak-scaling speedup of over 10,000 is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes exceeding several hundreds of millions of individuals in the largest cases are successfully exercised to verify model scalability.« less

Painful and provocative events scale and fearlessness about death among Veterans: Exploratory factor analysis.

PubMed

Poindexter, Erin K; Nazem, Sarra; Forster, Jeri E

2017-01-15

The interpersonal theory of suicide suggests three proximal risk factors for suicide: perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and acquired capability. Previous literature indicates that repetitive exposure to painful and provocative events is related to increased acquired capability for suicide. Despite this, research related to the assessment of painful and provocative events has been insufficient. Research has inconsistently administered the Painful and Provocative Events Scale (PPES; a painful and provocative events assessment), and no study has examined the factor structure of the English PPES. This study explored the factor structure of the PPES and the relation between factors and fearlessness about death. The sample was a cross-sectional, self-report study comprised of 119 Veterans (Mage = 46.5, SD = 13.5). Findings from an exploratory factor analysis indicated a four-factor solution for the PPES; however, no factor from the PPES significantly related to fearlessness about death (measured by the Acquired Capability for Suicide Scale - Fearlessness About Death Scale; all p >.21). Cross-sectional, small Veteran sample. Findings suggest that the PPES lacks the psychometric properties necessary to reliably investigate painful and provocative factors. Consequently, this measure may not reliably capture and explain how painful and provocative events relate to fearlessness about death, which is a barrier to improving suicide risk assessment and prediction. Recommendations for the construction of a new PPES are offered. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatiotemporal stick-slip phenomena in a coupled continuum-granular system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecke, Robert

In sheared granular media, stick-slip behavior is ubiquitous, especially at very small shear rates and weak drive coupling. The resulting slips are characteristic of natural phenomena such as earthquakes and well as being a delicate probe of the collective dynamics of the granular system. In that spirit, we developed a laboratory experiment consisting of sheared elastic plates separated by a narrow gap filled with quasi-two-dimensional granular material (bi-dispersed nylon rods) . We directly determine the spatial and temporal distributions of strain displacements of the elastic continuum over 200 spatial points located adjacent to the gap. Slip events can be divided into large system-spanning events and spatially distributed smaller events. The small events have a probability distribution of event moment consistent with an M - 3 / 2 power law scaling and a Poisson distributed recurrence time distribution. Large events have a broad, log-normal moment distribution and a mean repetition time. As the applied normal force increases, there are fractionally more (less) large (small) events, and the large-event moment distribution broadens. The magnitude of the slip motion of the plates is well correlated with the root-mean-square displacements of the granular matter. Our results are consistent with mean field descriptions of statistical models of earthquakes and avalanches. We further explore the high-speed dynamics of system events and also discuss the effective granular friction of the sheared layer. We find that large events result from stored elastic energy in the plates in this coupled granular-continuum system.

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Leblois, E.; Onfroy, T.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.

2014-09-01

The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible (but which have not yet occurred) flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2010 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90 % of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff, due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of the CCR (Caisse Centrale de Reassurance) claim database have shown that approximately 45 % of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45 % outside. Another 10 % is due to sea surge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: a generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and a generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (Macif) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

Extremely high wall-shear stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Chong; Kwon, Yongseok

2018-04-01

The present work studies the fluctuating characteristics of the streamwise wall-shear stress in a DNS of a turbulent boundary layer at Re τ =1500 from a structural view. The two-dimensional field of the fluctuating friction velocity u‧ τ (x,z) is decomposed into the large- and small-scale components via a recently proposed scale separation algorithm, Quasi-bivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (QB-VMD). Both components are found to be dominated by streak-like structures, which can be regarded as the wall signature of the inner-layer streaks and the outer-layer LSMs, respectively. Extreme positive/negative wall-shear stress fluctuation events are detected in the large-scale component. The former’s occurrence frequency is nearly one order of magnitude higher than the latter; therefore, they contribute a significant portion of the long tail of the wall-shear stress distribution. Both two-point correlations and conditional averages show that these extreme positive wall-shear stress events are embedded in the large-scale positive u‧ τ streaks. They seem to be formed by near-wall ‘splatting’ process, which are related to strong finger-like sweeping (Q4) events originated from the outer-layer positive LSMs.

Nanoflares, Spicules, and Other Small-Scale Dynamic Phenomena on the Sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimchuk, James

2010-01-01

There is abundant evidence of highly dynamic phenomena occurring on very small scales in the solar atmosphere. For example, the observed pr operties of many coronal loops can only be explained if the loops are bundles of unresolved strands that are heated impulsively by nanoflares. Type II spicules recently discovered by Hinode are an example of small-scale impulsive events occurring in the chromosphere. The exist ence of these and other small-scale phenomena is not surprising given the highly structured nature of the magnetic field that is revealed by photospheric observations. Dynamic phenomena also occur on much lar ger scales, including coronal jets, flares, and CMEs. It is tempting to suggest that these different phenomena are all closely related and represent a continuous distribution of sizes and energies. However, this is a dangerous over simplification in my opinion. While it is tru e that the phenomena all involve "magnetic reconnection" (the changin g of field line connectivity) in some form, how this occurs depends s trongly on the magnetic geometry. A nanoflare resulting from the interaction of tangled magnetic strands within a confined coronal loop is much different from a major flare occurring at the current sheet form ed when a CME rips open an active region. I will review the evidence for ubiquitous small-scale dynamic phenomena on the Sun and discuss wh y different phenomena are not all fundamentally the same.

Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2013-07-01

The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

Quantifying Dynamic Changes on Surface of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko Using High-Resolution Photoclinometry DTMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Birch, S.; Hayes, A.; Kirk, R. L.; Kutsop, N. W. S.; Squyres, S. W.

2017-12-01

Observations from ESA's Rosetta spacecraft of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) have provided insights into the geological processes that act to modify the surface of a small, primitive body. The landscapes of 67P are shaped by both large scale violent changes, such as cliff collapses and jet events, as well as smaller and more subtle changes such as the formation of pits and ripples within the larger-scale granular deposits. Explosive jets are located through triangulating the same jet in multiple images. They appear to originate from locations close to numerous newly formed, small-scale pits, which were only observed after known jet events (for example, the jet observed on March 11th, 2015, in image N20150311T053737597ID30F22). This implies a possible link between these two dynamical processes. We generated high-resolution photoclinometric digital terrain models (DTM) of the surface of 67P (at 1.5m/pixel) in locations where recent jet events were observed and over surfaces where newly formed pits are observed. A comparison of DTMs generated of the surface both before and after the appearance of the pits provides insight to the magnitude of dynamical changes, including the volume of the ejected material. By tracking the change in the surface topography at such high resolution, we constrain both the volume of materials that are ejected from the surface during the jet event, and of materials that are retained in nearby deposits. By studying these events and their aftermath, it will be possible to formulate numerical models as to the formation of the jets and explain why and how they occur. We will use this information in conjunction with numerical modeling of the large-scale global transport of sedimentary materials on 67P, to facilitate a better understanding of cometary landscape evolution.

Statistical Downscaling of Gusts During Extreme European Winter Storms Using Radial-Basis-Function Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, M.; Lorenz, P.; Kruschke, T.; Osinski, R.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2012-04-01

Winterstorms and related gusts can cause extensive socio-economic damages. Knowledge about the occurrence and the small scale structure of such events may help to make regional estimations of storm losses. For a high spatial and temporal representation, the use of dynamical downscaling methods (RCM) is a cost-intensive and time-consuming option and therefore only applicable for a limited number of events. The current study explores a methodology to provide a statistical downscaling, which offers small scale structured gust fields from an extended large scale structured eventset. Radial-basis-function (RBF) networks in combination with bidirectional Kohonen (BDK) maps are used to generate the gustfields on a spatial resolution of 7 km from the 6-hourly mean sea level pressure field from ECMWF reanalysis data. BDK maps are a kind of neural network which handles supervised classification problems. In this study they are used to provide prototypes for the RBF network and give a first order approximation for the output data. A further interpolation is done by the RBF network. For the training process the 50 most extreme storm events over the North Atlantic area from 1957 to 2011 are used, which have been selected from ECMWF reanalysis datasets ERA40 and ERA-Interim by an objective wind based tracking algorithm. These events were downscaled dynamically by application of the DWD model chain GME → COSMO-EU. Different model parameters and their influence on the quality of the generated high-resolution gustfields are studied. It is shown that the statistical RBF network approach delivers reasonable results in modeling the regional gust fields for untrained events.

Characteristics and Geoeffectiveness of Small-scale Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myeong Joon; Park, Kyung Sun; Lee, Dae-Young; Choi, Cheong-Rim; Kim, Rok Soon; Cho, Kyungsuk; Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Kim, Jaehun

2017-12-01

Magnetic flux ropes, often observed during intervals of interplanetary coronal mass ejections, have long been recognized to be critical in space weather. In this work, we focus on magnetic flux rope structure but on a much smaller scale, and not necessarily related to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Using near-Earth solar wind advanced composition explorer (ACE) observations from 1998 to 2016, we identified a total of 309 small-scale magnetic flux ropes (SMFRs). We compared the characteristics of identified SMFR events with those of normal magnetic cloud (MC) events available from the existing literature. First, most of the MCs and SMFRs have similar values of accompanying solar wind speed and proton densities. However, the average magnetic field intensity of SMFRs is weaker ( 7.4 nT) than that of MCs ( 10.6 nT). Also, the average duration time and expansion speed of SMFRs are 2.5 hr and 2.6 km/s, respectively, both of which are smaller by a factor of 10 than those of MCs. In addition, we examined the geoeffectiveness of SMFR events by checking their correlation with magnetic storms and substorms. Based on the criteria Sym-H < -50 nT (for identification of storm occurrence) and AL < -200 nT (for identification of substorm occurrence), we found that for 88 SMFR events (corresponding to 28.5 % of the total SMFR events), substorms occurred after the impact of SMFRs, implying a possible triggering of substorms by SMFRs. In contrast, we found only two SMFRs that triggered storms. We emphasize that, based on a much larger database than used in previous studies, all these previously known features are now firmly confirmed by the current work. Accordingly, the results emphasize the significance of SMFRs from the viewpoint of possible triggering of substorms.

Probabilistic hydrological nowcasting using radar based nowcasting techniques and distributed hydrological models: application in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poletti, Maria Laura; Pignone, Flavio; Rebora, Nicola; Silvestro, Francesco

2017-04-01

The exposure of the urban areas to flash-floods is particularly significant to Mediterranean coastal cities, generally densely-inhabited. Severe rainfall events often associated to intense and organized thunderstorms produced, during the last century, flash-floods and landslides causing serious damages to urban areas and in the worst events led to human losses. The temporal scale of these events has been observed strictly linked to the size of the catchments involved: in the Mediterranean area a great number of catchments that pass through coastal cities have a small drainage area (less than 100 km2) and a corresponding hydrologic response timescale in the order of a few hours. A suitable nowcasting chain is essential for the on time forecast of this kind of events. In fact meteorological forecast systems are unable to predict precipitation at the scale of these events, small both at spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) scales. Nowcasting models, covering the time interval of the following two hours starting from the observation try to extend the predictability limits of the forecasting models in support of real-time flood alert system operations. This work aims to present the use of hydrological models coupled with nowcasting techniques. The nowcasting model PhaSt furnishes an ensemble of equi-probable future precipitation scenarios on time horizons of 1-3 h starting from the most recent radar observations. The coupling of the nowcasting model PhaSt with the hydrological model Continuum allows to forecast the flood with a few hours in advance. In this way it is possible to generate different discharge prediction for the following hours and associated return period maps: these maps can be used as a support in the decisional process for the warning system.

Best Practices in the Evaluation of Large-scale STEM-focused Events: A Review of Recent Literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shebby, S.; Cobb, W. H.; Buxner, S.; Shipp, S. S.

2015-12-01

Each year, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors a variety of educational events to share information with educators, students, and the general public. Intended outcomes of these events include increased interest in and awareness of the mission and goals of NASA. Events range in size from relatively small family science nights at a local school to large-scale mission and celestial event celebrations involving thousands of members of the general public. To support community members in designing event evaluations, the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Forum sponsored the creation of a Best Practices Guide. The guide was generated by reviewing published large-scale event evaluation reports; however, the best practices described within are pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. Each source included in the guide identified numerous challenges to conducting their event evaluation. These included difficulty in identifying extant instruments or items, collecting representative data, and disaggregating data to inform different evaluation questions. Overall, the guide demonstrates that evaluations of the large-scale events are generally done at a very basic level, with the types of data collected limited to observable demographic information and participant reactions collected via online survey. In addition to these findings, this presentation will describe evaluation best practices that will help practitioners move beyond these basic indicators and examine how to make the evaluation process an integral—and valuable—element of event planning, ultimately informing event outcomes and impacts. It will provide detailed information on five recommendations presented in the guide: 1) consider evaluation methodology, including data analysis, in advance; 2) design data collection instruments well in advance of the event; 3) collect data at different times and from multiple sources; 4) use technology to make the job easier; and 5) be aware of how challenging it is to measure impact.

Study of Small-Scale Anisotropy of Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic Rays Observed in Stereo by the High Resolution Fly's Eye Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Amann, J. F.; Archbold, G.; Atkins, R.; Bellido, J. A.; Belov, K.; Belz, J. W.; BenZvi, S.; Bergman, D. R.; Boyer, J. H.; Burt, G. W.; Cao, Z.; Clay, R. W.; Connolly, B. M.; Dawson, B. R.; Deng, W.; Fedorova, Y.; Findlay, J.; Finley, C. B.; Hanlon, W. F.; Hoffman, C. M.; Holzscheiter, M. H.; Hughes, G. A.; Hüntemeyer, P.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kim, K.; Kirn, M. A.; Knapp, B. C.; Loh, E. C.; Maestas, M. M.; Manago, N.; Mannel, E. J.; Marek, L. J.; Martens, K.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthews, J. N.; O'Neill, A.; Painter, C. A.; Perera, L.; Reil, K.; Riehle, R.; Roberts, M. D.; Sasaki, M.; Schnetzer, S. R.; Seman, M.; Simpson, K. M.; Sinnis, G.; Smith, J. D.; Snow, R.; Sokolsky, P.; Song, C.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Thomas, J. R.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tupa, D.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiencke, L. R.; Zech, A.; HIRES Collaboration

2004-08-01

The High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) experiment is an air fluorescence detector which, operating in stereo mode, has a typical angular resolution of 0.6d and is sensitive to cosmic rays with energies above 1018 eV. The HiRes cosmic-ray detector is thus an excellent instrument for the study of the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. We present the results of a search for anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions on small scales (<5°) and at the highest energies (>1019 eV). The search is based on data recorded between 1999 December and 2004 January, with a total of 271 events above 1019 eV. No small-scale anisotropy is found, and the strongest clustering found in the HiRes stereo data is consistent at the 52% level with the null hypothesis of isotropically distributed arrival directions.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: the ``atom'' of geophysical turbulence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, William

2017-11-01

Observations of small-scale turbulence in Earth's atmosphere and oceans have most commonly been interpreted in terms of the Kolmogorov theory of isotropic turbulence, despite the fact that the observed turbulence is significantly anisotropic due to density stratification and sheared large-scale flows. I will describe an alternative picture in which turbulence consists of distinct events that occur sporadically in space and time. The simplest model for an individual event is the ``Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) ansatz'', in which turbulence relieves the dynamic instability of a localized shear layer. I will summarize evidence that the KH ansatz is a valid description of observed turbulence events, using microstructure measurements from the equatorial Pacific ocean as an example. While the KH ansatz has been under study for many decades and is reasonably well understood, the bigger picture is much less clear. How are the KH events distributed in space and time? How do different events interact with each other? I will describe some tentative steps toward a more thorough understanding.

Correspondence between solar fine-scale structures in the corona, transition region, and lower atmosphere from collaborative observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moses, J. Daniel; Cook, J. W.; Bartoe, J.-D. F.; Brueckner, G. E.; Dere, K. P.; Webb, D. F.; Davis, John M.; Recely, F.; Martin, S. F.; Zirin, H.

1989-01-01

The Soft X-Ray Imaging Payload and the High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph (HRTS) instrument were launched from White Sands on 11 December 1987 in coordinated sounding rocket flights to investigate the correspondence of coronal and transition region structures, especially the relationship between X-ray bright points (XBPs) and transition region small spatial scale energetic events. The coaligned data from X-ray images are presented along with maps of sites of transition region energetic events observed in C IV (100,000 K), HRTS 1600 A spectroheliograms of the T sub min region and ground based magnetogram and He I 10830 A images.

The nature of micro CMEs within coronal holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker; Nistico, Giuseppe; Zimbardo, Gaetano; Patsourakos, Spiros; Bosman, Eckhard

Whilst investigating the origin and characteristics of coronal jets and large-scale CMEs identi-fied in data from the SECCHI (Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation) instrument suites on board the two STEREO satellites, we discovered transient events that originated in the low corona with a morphology resembling that of typical three-part struc-tured coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, the CMEs occurred on considerably smaller spatial scales. In this presentation we show evidence for the existence of small-scale CMEs from inside coronal holes and present quantitative estimates of their speeds and masses. We interprete the origin and evolution of micro CMEs as a natural consequence of the emergence of small-scale magnetic bipoles related to the Sun's ever changing photospheric magnetic flux on various scales and their interactions with the ambient plasma and magnetic field. The analysis of CMEs is performed within the framework of the EU Erasmus and FP7 SOTERIA projects.

Population-based case-control study of white matter changes on brain imaging in transient ischemic attack and ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Li, Linxin; Simoni, Michela; Küker, Wilhelm; Schulz, Ursula G; Christie, Sharon; Wilcock, Gordon K; Rothwell, Peter M

2013-11-01

White matter changes (WMC) are a common finding on brain imaging and are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. They are most frequent in small vessel stroke; however, in the absence of comparisons with normal controls, it is uncertain whether WMC are also more frequent than expected in other stroke subtypes. Therefore, we compared WMC in pathogenic subtypes of ischemic stroke versus controls in a population-based study. We evaluated the presence and severity of WMC on computed tomography and on magnetic resonance brain imaging using modified Blennow/Fazekas scale and age-related white matter changes scale, respectively, in a population-based study of patients with incident transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study) and in a study of local controls (Oxford Project to Investigate Memory and Ageing) without history of transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke, with stratification by stroke pathogenesis (Trial of Org10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification). Among 1601 consecutive eligible patients with first-ever ischemic events, 1453 patients had computed tomography brain imaging, 562 had magnetic resonance imaging, and 414 patients had both. Compared with 313 controls (all with computed tomography and 131 with magnetic resonance imaging) and after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, moderate/severe WMC (age-related white matter changes scale) were more frequent in patients with small vessel events (odds ratio, 3.51 [95% confidence interval, 2.13-5.76]; P<0.0001) but not in large artery (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.67]), cardioembolic (odds ratio, 0.87 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.34]), or undetermined (odds ratio, 0.90 [95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.30]) subtypes. Results were consistent for ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack, for other scales, and for magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography separately. In contrast to small vessel ischemic events, WMC were not independently associated with other pathogenic subtypes, suggesting that WMC are unlikely to be an independent risk factor for nonsmall vessel events.

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Measuring symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder in people with intellectual disabilities: the development and psychometric properties of the Impact of Event Scale-Intellectual Disabilities (IES-IDs).

PubMed

Hall, James C; Jobson, Laura; Langdon, Peter E

2014-09-01

The aims of the study were to (1) revise the Impact of Event Scale-Revised for use with people with intellectual disabilities (IDs), creating the Impact of Event Scale-Intellectual Disabilities (IES-IDs), (2) assess the reliability of the IES-IDs, and (3) compare the IES-IDs to an existing measure trauma-related symptomatology, namely the Lancaster and Northgate Trauma Scale (LANTS), along with measures of anxiety and depression. Forty adults with IDs who had experienced at least one traumatic event were recruited and completed the IES-IDs and the LANTS on two occasions, separated by 2 weeks. Participants also completed the Glasgow Depression Scale and the Glasgow Anxiety Scale, along with the Trauma Information Form which was used to collect information about trauma history. Fifteen per cent of the sample had encountered five or more traumatic events. The IES-IDs and the LANTS had good to excellent internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Both measures correlated with self-report measures of depression and anxiety, although the strength of this correlation was greater with the LANTS. There was a significant positive correlation between trauma frequency and the IES-IDs, while trauma frequency did not correlate with the LANTS. Both the IES-IDs and the LANTS appear to have good reliability. There is a lack of well-developed questionnaires that can be used to assess symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in people with intellectual disabilities. The Impact of Event Scale-Revised was augmented creating the Impact of Event Scale-Intellectual Disabilities (IES-IDs). The IES-IDs was shown to have good psychometric properties. The IES-IDs was compared to the Lancaster and Northgate Trauma Scale (LANTS), but the LANTS did not correlate with trauma frequency. However, this study had a small sample size, and a much larger study is needed to examine the factor structure of both the IES-IDs and the LANTS. Future studies should attempt to recruit people with IDs who have a diagnosis of PTSD. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grooms, Ian, E-mail: grooms@cims.nyu.edu; Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (amore » multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.« less

Probabilistic Forecasting of Life and Economic Losses due to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. C.; Tebbens, S. F.

2014-12-01

The magnitude of natural hazard events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods are traditionally measured by wind speed, energy release, or discharge. In this study we investigate the scaling of the magnitude of individual events of the 20th and 21stcentury in terms of economic and life losses in the United States and worldwide. Economic losses are subdivided into insured and total losses. Some data sets are inflation or population adjusted. Forecasts associated with these events are of interest to insurance, reinsurance, and emergency management agencies. Plots of cumulative size-frequency distributions of economic and life loss are well-fit by power functions and thus exhibit self-similar scaling. This self-similar scaling property permits use of frequent small events to estimate the rate of occurrence of less frequent larger events. Examining the power scaling behavior of loss data for disasters permits: forecasting the probability of occurrence of a disaster over a wide range of years (1 to 10 to 1,000 years); comparing losses associated with one type of disaster to another; comparing disasters in one region to similar disasters in another region; and, measuring the effectiveness of planning and mitigation strategies. In the United States, life losses due to flood and tornado cumulative-frequency distributions have steeper slopes, indicating that frequent smaller events contribute the majority of losses. In contrast, life losses due to hurricanes and earthquakes have shallower slopes, indicating that the few larger events contribute the majority of losses. Disaster planning and mitigation strategies should incorporate these differences.

Variations in Global Precipitation: Climate-scale to Floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert

2006-01-01

Variations in global precipitation from climate-scale to small scale are examined using satellite-based analyses of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27- year (1979-2005) monthly dataset from the GPCP. In addition to global patterns associated with phenomena such as ENSO, the data set is explored for evidence of longterm change. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate a small upward trend in the Tropics (25S-25N), especially over ocean. Techniques are derived to isolate and eliminate variations due to ENS0 and major volcanic eruptions and the significance of the trend is examined. The status of TRMM estimates is examined in terms of evaluating and improving the long-term global data set. To look at rainfall variations on a much smaller scale TRMM data is used in combination with observations from other satellites to produce a 3-hr resolution, eight-year data set for examination of weather events and for practical applications such as detecting floods. Characteristics of the data set are presented and examples of recent flood events are examined.

Bursting process of large- and small-scale structures in turbulent boundary layer perturbed by a cylinder roughness element

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhanqi; Jiang, Nan; Zheng, Xiaobo; Wu, Yanhua

2016-05-01

Hot-wire measurements on a turbulent boundary layer flow perturbed by a wall-mounted cylinder roughness element (CRE) are carried out in this study. The cylindrical element protrudes into the logarithmic layer, which is similar to those employed in turbulent boundary layers by Ryan et al. (AIAA J 49:2210-2220, 2011. doi: 10.2514/1.j051012) and Zheng and Longmire (J Fluid Mech 748:368-398, 2014. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2014.185) and in turbulent channel flow by Pathikonda and Christensen (AIAA J 53:1-10, 2014. doi: 10.2514/1.j053407). The similar effects on both the mean velocity and Reynolds stress are observed downstream of the CRE perturbation. The series of hot-wire data are decomposed into large- and small-scale fluctuations, and the characteristics of large- and small-scale bursting process are observed, by comparing the bursting duration, period and frequency between CRE-perturbed case and unperturbed case. It is indicated that the CRE perturbation performs the significant impact on the large- and small-scale structures, but within the different impact scenario. Moreover, the large-scale bursting process imposes a modulation on the bursting events of small-scale fluctuations and the overall trend of modulation is not essentially sensitive to the present CRE perturbation, even the modulation extent is modified. The conditionally averaging fluctuations are also plotted, which further confirms the robustness of the bursting modulation in the present experiments.

Characteristics of pulsed runoff-erosion events under typical rainstorms in a small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Jiang, Jun; Li, Gou-Xia; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-27

The pulsed events of rainstorm erosion on the Loess Plateau are well-known, but little information is available concerning the characteristics of superficial soil erosion processes caused by heavy rainstorms at the watershed scale. This study statistically evaluated characteristics of pulsed runoff-erosion events based on 17 observed rainstorms from 1997-2010 in a small loess watershed on the Loess Plateau of China. Results show that: 1) Rainfall is the fundamental driving force of soil erosion on hillslopes, but the correlations of rainfall-runoff and rainfall-sediment in different rainstorms are often scattered due to infiltration-excess runoff and soil conservation measures. 2) Relationships between runoff and sediment for each rainstorm event can be regressed by linear, power, logarithmic and exponential functions. Cluster Analysis is helpful in classifying runoff-erosion events and formulating soil conservation strategies for rainstorm erosion. 3) Response characteristics of sediment yield are different in different levels of pulsed runoff-erosion events. Affected by rainfall intensity and duration, large changes may occur in the interactions between flow and sediment for different flood events. Results provide new insights into runoff-erosion processes and will assist soil conservation planning in the loess hilly region.

Small Winter Thunderstorm with Sprites and Strong Positive Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Tomoyuki; Hayakawa, Masashi; Michimoto, Koichiro

A sprite campaign was conducted in the Hokuriku area of Japan during a winter of 2004/2005. On the basis of a combined analysis of the data from various instruments (CCD cameras, radar, VHF/LF∼MF lightning mapping system, field mill network, and ELF detector), we studied meteorological and electrical structures for winter thunderstorms and sprite-producing positive discharge. Typical winter sprite parent thunderstorms had a meso-scale cloud area with embedded small convective cells. Some small winter thunderstorms accompanied by the most frequent sprite events were found to cause 2∼3 sprite events during a short interval of about 3∼5 min. When the sprites were observed, the extent of the convective cells at 20 dBZ counter was atmost ∼20 × 20 km. The VHF sources associated with sprites were located near south of the convective cell and were mapped within very small areas of at most ∼10 × 10 km. This fact shows that some small winter thunderstorms can generate large positive charge associated with sprites. We will present the analysis of such a small thunderstorms with sprites and positive lightning discharges.

Multifractal Approach to Time Clustering of Earthquakes. Application to Mt. Vesuvio Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codano, C.; Alonzo, M. L.; Vilardo, G.

The clustering structure of the Vesuvian earthquakes occurring is investigated by means of statistical tools: the inter-event time distribution, the running mean and the multifractal analysis. The first cannot clearly distinguish between a Poissonian process and a clustered one due to the difficulties of clearly distinguishing between an exponential distribution and a power law one. The running mean test reveals the clustering of the earthquakes, but looses information about the structure of the distribution at global scales. The multifractal approach can enlighten the clustering at small scales, while the global behaviour remains Poissonian. Subsequently the clustering of the events is interpreted in terms of diffusive processes of the stress in the earth crust.

Non-stationary least-squares complex decomposition for microseismic noise attenuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yangkang

2018-06-01

Microseismic data processing and imaging are crucial for subsurface real-time monitoring during hydraulic fracturing process. Unlike the active-source seismic events or large-scale earthquake events, the microseismic event is usually of very small magnitude, which makes its detection challenging. The biggest trouble of microseismic data is the low signal-to-noise ratio issue. Because of the small energy difference between effective microseismic signal and ambient noise, the effective signals are usually buried in strong random noise. I propose a useful microseismic denoising algorithm that is based on decomposing a microseismic trace into an ensemble of components using least-squares inversion. Based on the predictive property of useful microseismic event along the time direction, the random noise can be filtered out via least-squares fitting of multiple damping exponential components. The method is flexible and almost automated since the only parameter needed to be defined is a decomposition number. I use some synthetic and real data examples to demonstrate the potential of the algorithm in processing complicated microseismic data sets.

A full-angle Monte-Carlo scattering technique including cumulative and single-event Rutherford scattering in plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higginson, Drew P.

2017-11-01

We describe and justify a full-angle scattering (FAS) method to faithfully reproduce the accumulated differential angular Rutherford scattering probability distribution function (pdf) of particles in a plasma. The FAS method splits the scattering events into two regions. At small angles it is described by cumulative scattering events resulting, via the central limit theorem, in a Gaussian-like pdf; at larger angles it is described by single-event scatters and retains a pdf that follows the form of the Rutherford differential cross-section. The FAS method is verified using discrete Monte-Carlo scattering simulations run at small timesteps to include each individual scattering event. We identify the FAS regime of interest as where the ratio of temporal/spatial scale-of-interest to slowing-down time/length is from 10-3 to 0.3-0.7; the upper limit corresponds to Coulomb logarithm of 20-2, respectively. Two test problems, high-velocity interpenetrating plasma flows and keV-temperature ion equilibration, are used to highlight systems where including FAS is important to capture relevant physics.

Observational constraints on earthquake source scaling: Understanding the limits in resolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

1996-01-01

I examine the resolution of the type of stress drop estimates that have been used to place observational constraints on the scaling of earthquake source processes. I first show that apparent stress and Brune stress drop are equivalent to within a constant given any source spectral decay between ??1.5 and ??3 (i.e., any plausible value) and so consistent scaling is expected for the two estimates. I then discuss the resolution and scaling of Brune stress drop estimates, in the context of empirical Green's function results from recent earthquake sequences, including the 1992 Joshua Tree, California, mainshock and its aftershocks. I show that no definitive scaling of stress drop with moment is revealed over the moment range 1019-1025; within this sequence, however, there is a tendency for moderate-sized (M 4-5) events to be characterized by high stress drops. However, well-resolved results for recent M > 6 events are inconsistent with any extrapolated stress increase with moment for the aftershocks. Focusing on comer frequency estimates for smaller (M < 3.5) events, I show that resolution is extremely limited even after empirical Green's function deconvolutions. A fundamental limitation to resolution is the paucity of good signal-to-noise at frequencies above 60 Hz, a limitation that will affect nearly all surficial recordings of ground motion in California and many other regions. Thus, while the best available observational results support a constant stress drop for moderate-to large-sized events, very little robust observational evidence exists to constrain the quantities that bear most critically on our understanding of source processes: stress drop values and stress drop scaling for small events.

A small-area ecologic study of myocardial infarction, neighborhood deprivation, and sex: a Bayesian modeling approach.

PubMed

Deguen, Séverine; Lalloue, Benoît; Bard, Denis; Havard, Sabrina; Arveiler, Dominique; Zmirou-Navier, Denis

2010-07-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) are well documented for men and women. CHD incidence is greater for men but its association with socioeconomic status is usually found to be stronger among women. We explored the sex-specific association between neighborhood deprivation level and the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) at a small-area scale. We studied 1193 myocardial infarction events in people aged 35-74 years in the Strasbourg metropolitan area, France (2000-2003). We used a deprivation index to assess the neighborhood deprivation level. To take into account spatial dependence and the variability of MI rates due to the small number of events, we used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach. We fitted hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate sex-specific relative and absolute MI risks across deprivation categories. We tested departure from additive joint effects of deprivation and sex. The risk of MI increased with the deprivation level for both sexes, but was higher for men for all deprivation classes. Relative rates increased along the deprivation scale more steadily for women and followed a different pattern: linear for men and nonlinear for women. Our data provide evidence of effect modification, with departure from an additive joint effect of deprivation and sex. We document sex differences in the socioeconomic gradient of MI risk in Strasbourg. Women appear more susceptible at levels of extreme deprivation; this result is not a chance finding, given the large difference in event rates between men and women.

Improved microseismic event locations through large-N arrays and wave-equation imaging and inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witten, B.; Shragge, J. C.

2016-12-01

The recent increased focus on small-scale seismicity, Mw < 4 has come about primarily for two reasons. First, there is an increase in induced seismicity related to injection operations primarily for wastewater disposal and hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas recovery and for geothermal energy production. While the seismicity associated with injection is sometimes felt, it is more often weak. Some weak events are detected on current sparse arrays; however, accurate location of the events often requires a larger number of (multi-component) sensors. This leads to the second reason for an increased focus on small magnitude seismicity: a greater number of seismometers are being deployed in large N-arrays. The greater number of sensors decreases the detection threshold and therefore significantly increases the number of weak events found. Overall, these two factors bring new challenges and opportunities. Many standard seismological location and inversion techniques are geared toward large, easily identifiable events recorded on a sparse number of stations. However, with large-N arrays we can detect small events by utilizing multi-trace processing techniques, and increased processing power equips us with tools that employ more complete physics for simultaneously locating events and inverting for P- and S-wave velocity structure. We present a method that uses large-N arrays and wave-equation-based imaging and inversion to jointly locate earthquakes and estimate the elastic velocities of the earth. The technique requires no picking and is thus suitable for weak events. We validate the methodology through synthetic and field data examples.

Convection and electrodynamic signatures in the vicinity of a Sun-aligned arc: Results from the Polar Acceleration Regions and Convection Study (Polar ARCS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weiss, L. A.; Weber, E. J.; Reiff, P. H.; Sharber, J. R.; Winningham, J. D.; Primdahl, F.; Mikkelsen, I. S.; Seifring, C.; Wescott, Eugene M.

1994-01-01

An experimental campaign designed to study high-latitude auroral arcs was conducted in Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland, on February 26, 1987. The Polar Acceleration Regions and Convection Study (Polar ARCS) consisted of a coordinated set of ground-based, airborne, and sounding rocket measurements of a weak, sun-aligned arc system within the duskside polar cap. A rocket-borne barium release experiment, two DMSP satellite overflights, all-sky photography, and incoherent scatter radar measurements provided information on the large-scale plasma convection over the polar cap region while a second rocket instrumented with a DC magnetometer, Langmuir and electric field probes, and an electron spectrometer provided measurements of small-scale electrodynamics. The large-scale data indicate that small, sun-aligned precipitation events formed within a region of antisunward convection between the duskside auroral oval and a large sun-aligned arc further poleward. This convection signature, used to assess the relationship of the sun-aligned arc to the large-scale magnetospheric configuration, is found to be consistent with either a model in which the arc formed on open field lines on the dusk side of a bifurcated polar cap or on closed field lines threading an expanded low-latitude boundary layer, but not a model in which the polar cap arc field lines map to an expanded plasma sheet. The antisunward convection signature may also be explained by a model in which the polar cap arc formed on long field lines recently reconnected through a highly skewed plasma sheet. The small-scale measurements indicate the rocket passed through three narrow (less than 20 km) regions of low-energy (less than 100 eV) electron precipitation in which the electric and magnetic field perturbations were well correlated. These precipitation events are shown to be associated with regions of downward Poynting flux and small-scale upward and downward field-aligned currents of 1-2 micro-A/sq m. The paired field-aligned currents are associated with velocity shears (higher and lower speed streams) embedded in the region of antisunward flow.

Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2014-07-01

The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

National Earthquake Information Center Seismic Event Detections on Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, J.; Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Johnson, C. E.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors seismicity on local, regional, and global scales using automatic picks from more than 2,000 near-real time seismic stations. This presents unique challenges in automated event detection due to the high variability in data quality, network geometries and density, and distance-dependent variability in observed seismic signals. To lower the overall detection threshold while minimizing false detection rates, NEIC has begun to test the incorporation of new detection and picking algorithms, including multiband (Lomax et al., 2012) and kurtosis (Baillard et al., 2014) pickers, and a new bayesian associator (Glass 3.0). The Glass 3.0 associator allows for simultaneous processing of variably scaled detection grids, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation threshold, minimum associated picks, nucleation phases) to meet specific monitoring goals. We test the efficacy of these new tools on event detection in networks of various scales and geometries, compare our results with previous catalogs, and discuss lessons learned. For example, we find that on local and regional scales, rapid nucleation of small events may require event nucleation with both P and higher-amplitude secondary phases (e.g., S or Lg). We provide examples of the implementation of a scale-independent associator for an induced seismicity sequence (local-scale), a large aftershock sequence (regional-scale), and for monitoring global seismicity. Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., & Mangeney, A. (2014). An automatic kurtosis-based P-and S-phase picker designed for local seismic networks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 394-409. Lomax, A., Satriano, C., & Vassallo, M. (2012). Automatic picker developments and optimization: FilterPicker - a robust, broadband picker for real-time seismic monitoring and earthquake early-warning, Seism. Res. Lett. , 83, 531-540, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.3.531.

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a-priori information (topography, lithology, …) and rainfall metrics available from meteorological forecast may allow to better anticipate and mitigates landsliding associated with extreme rainfall events.

Automated LASCO CME Catalog for Solar Cycle 23: Are CMEs Scale Invariant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robbrecht, E.; Berghmans, D.; Van der Linden, R. A. M.

2009-02-01

In this paper, we present the first automatically constructed LASCO coronal mass ejection (CME) catalog, a result of the application of the Computer Aided CME Tracking software (CACTus) on the LASCO archive during the interval 1997 September-2007 January. We have studied the CME characteristics and have compared them with similar results obtained by manual detection (CDAW CME catalog). On average, CACTus detects less than two events per day during solar minimum, up to eight events during maximum, nearly half of them being narrow (<20°). Assuming a correction factor, we find that the CACTus CME rate is surprisingly consistent with CME rates found during the past 30 years. The CACTus statistics show that small-scale outflow is ubiquitously observed in the outer corona. The majority of CACTus-only events are narrow transients related to previous CME activity or to intensity variations in the slow solar wind, reflecting its turbulent nature. A significant fraction (about 15%) of CACTus-only events were identified as independent events, thus not related to other CME activity. The CACTus CME width distribution is essentially scale invariant in angular span over a range of scales from 20° to 120° while previous catalogs present a broad maximum around 30°. The possibility that the size of coronal mass outflows follow a power-law distribution could indicate that no typical CME size exists, i.e., that the narrow transients are not different from the larger well defined CMEs.

Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, J.L.

2006-01-01

Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M < ??? 3) earthquakes in southern California, the east San Francisco Bay, and the aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. I quantify the degree of mechanism variability on a range of length scales by comparing the hypocentral disctance between every pair of events and the angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance

77 FR 22221 - Security Zones; North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Chicago, IL

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-13

... affect your small business, organization, or governmental jurisdiction and you have questions concerning...-AA87 Security Zones; North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Chicago, IL AGENCY: Coast Guard... with a large scale, international political event. DATES: This rule is effective between 8 a.m. on May...

Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, R. N.; Belcher, J. W.; Lazarus, A. J.

1973-01-01

This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

Determining Scale-dependent Patterns in Spatial and Temporal Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Perfect, E.; Mukerji, T.; Sylvester, L.

2016-12-01

Spatial and temporal datasets of interest to Earth scientists often contain plots of one variable against another, e.g., rainfall magnitude vs. time or fracture aperture vs. spacing. Such data, comprised of distributions of events along a transect / timeline along with their magnitudes, can display persistent or antipersistent trends, as well as random behavior, that may contain signatures of underlying physical processes. Lacunarity is a technique that was originally developed for multiscale analysis of data. In a recent study we showed that lacunarity can be used for revealing changes in scale-dependent patterns in fracture spacing data. Here we present a further improvement in our technique, with lacunarity applied to various non-binary datasets comprised of event spacings and magnitudes. We test our technique on a set of four synthetic datasets, three of which are based on an autoregressive model and have magnitudes at every point along the "timeline" thus representing antipersistent, persistent, and random trends. The fourth dataset is made up of five clusters of events, each containing a set of random magnitudes. The concept of lacunarity ratio, LR, is introduced; this is the lacunarity of a given dataset normalized to the lacunarity of its random counterpart. It is demonstrated that LR can successfully delineate scale-dependent changes in terms of antipersistence and persistence in the synthetic datasets. This technique is then applied to three different types of data: a hundred-year rainfall record from Knoxville, TN, USA, a set of varved sediments from Marca Shale, and a set of fracture aperture and spacing data from NE Mexico. While the rainfall data and varved sediments both appear to be persistent at small scales, at larger scales they both become random. On the other hand, the fracture data shows antipersistence at small scale (within cluster) and random behavior at large scales. Such differences in behavior with respect to scale-dependent changes in antipersistence to random, persistence to random, or otherwise, maybe be related to differences in the physicochemical properties and processes contributing to multiscale datasets.

Assessment of safety and immunogenicity of two different lots of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine manufactured using small and large scale manufacturing process.

PubMed

Sharma, Hitt J; Patil, Vishwanath D; Lalwani, Sanjay K; Manglani, Mamta V; Ravichandran, Latha; Kapre, Subhash V; Jadhav, Suresh S; Parekh, Sameer S; Ashtagi, Girija; Malshe, Nandini; Palkar, Sonali; Wade, Minal; Arunprasath, T K; Kumar, Dinesh; Shewale, Sunil D

2012-01-11

Hib vaccine can be easily incorporated in EPI vaccination schedule as the immunization schedule of Hib is similar to that of DTP vaccine. To meet the global demand of Hib vaccine, SIIL scaled up the Hib conjugate manufacturing process. This study was conducted in Indian infants to assess and compare the immunogenicity and safety of DTwP-HB+Hib (Pentavac(®)) vaccine of SIIL manufactured at large scale with the 'same vaccine' manufactured at a smaller scale. 720 infants aged 6-8 weeks were randomized (2:1 ratio) to receive 0.5 ml of Pentavac(®) vaccine from two different lots one produced at scaled up process and the other at a small scale process. Serum samples obtained before and at one month after the 3rd dose of vaccine from both the groups were tested for IgG antibody response by ELISA and compared to assess non-inferiority. Neither immunological interference nor increased reactogenicity was observed in either of the vaccine groups. All infants developed protective antibody titres to diphtheria, tetanus and Hib disease. For hepatitis B antigen, one child from each group remained sero-negative. The response to pertussis was 88% in large scale group vis-à-vis 87% in small scale group. Non-inferiority was concluded for all five components of the vaccine. No serious adverse event was reported in the study. The scale up vaccine achieved comparable response in terms of the safety and immunogenicity to small scale vaccine and therefore can be easily incorporated in the routine childhood vaccination programme. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work related injuries in small scale commercial fishing

PubMed Central

Marshall, S; Kucera, K; Loomis, D; McDonald, M; Lipscomb, H

2004-01-01

Objective: To describe the epidemiology of work related injury in a group of small scale, independent commercial fishers. Design: Cross sectional survey (baseline instrument of a prospective cohort study). Setting and subjects: Commercial fishers in eastern North Carolina. Results: A cohort of 219 commercial fishers was established and 215 subjects completed an injury questionnaire. The main types of fishing conducted by the cohort were finfishing (159/215) and crabbing (154/215). Of the 215 fishers, 83 reported that they had suffered an injury event in the previous 12 months, a retrospective recall incidence proportion of 38.6 per 100 workers (95% confidence interval 32.1 to 45.1). The 83 injury events resulted in 94 injuries; 47% were penetrating wounds and 24% were strains/sprains. Half of injuries were to the hand/wrist/digits and 13% were to the back. Of the penetrating wounds, 87% were to the hand/wrist/digits, 32% became infected, and 80% were caused by contact with finfish, shellfish, or other marine animal. Of the strains/sprains, 48% were to the back and 26% were to the shoulder. Seventy percent of strains/sprains were caused by moving heavy objects, mainly either while hauling in nets, pots, or lines or loading/unloading the boat. Conclusion: In this group of small scale, independent fishers, the most common reported injuries were penetrating wounds to the hand/wrist/digits from marine animals and strains/sprains to the back while moving heavy objects. PMID:15314048

Effect of Small-Scale Gravity Waves on Polar Mesospheric Clouds Observed From CIPS/AIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Haiyang; Li, Licheng; Bu, Lingbing; Zhang, Qilin; Tang, Yuanhe; Wang, Zhen

2018-05-01

Data from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size experiment on the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite are employed to study the impact of small-scale gravity wave (GW) on albedo, ice water content (IWC), and particle radius (PR) of polar mesospheric clouds. Overall, 23,987 eligible GW events, with a horizontal wavelength of 20-150 km are eventually extracted from Cloud Imaging and Particle Size level 2 orbit albedo maps during 2007-2011. The overall statistical results show that when small-scale GWs travel horizontally in polar mesospheric clouds, they can amplify the albedo and IWC by a rate of 10.0-22.6%, while reducing the PR by as much as -7.01%. Owing to the strong temporal and spatial dependences, the albedo and IWC variations are larger on an average during the core of the season, while they decrease during the initial and final periods of the season. The obvious zonal asymmetries are also found. The albedo variations show a positive linear relation with the GW amplitudes in albedo, as opposed to a negative linear relation with GW horizontal wavelengths. In most of the GW events, the periodic variation in the trend of albedo exhibits an anticorrelation with that of PR. Combining previous research studies with our results, we deduce that the rapid change in particle concentration and the upward movement of water vapor by GWs may be very important aspects for explaining the influence mechanism.

Transition Region and Chromospheric Signatures of Impulsive Heating Events. I. Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Harry P.; Reep, Jeffrey W.; Crump, Nicholas A.; Simões, Paulo J. A.

2016-09-01

We exploit the high spatial resolution and high cadence of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) to investigate the response of the transition region and chromosphere to energy deposition during a small flare. Simultaneous observations from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager provide constraints on the energetic electrons precipitating into the flare footpoints, while observations of the X-Ray Telescope, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, and Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) allow us to measure the temperatures and emission measures from the resulting flare loops. We find clear evidence for heating over an extended period on the spatial scale of a single IRIS pixel. During the impulsive phase of this event, the intensities in each pixel for the Si IV 1402.770 Å, C II 1334.535 Å, Mg II 2796.354 Å, and O I 1355.598 Å emission lines are characterized by numerous small-scale bursts typically lasting 60 s or less. Redshifts are observed in Si IV, C II, and Mg II during the impulsive phase. Mg II shows redshifts during the bursts and stationary emission at other times. The Si IV and C II profiles, in contrast, are observed to be redshifted at all times during the impulsive phase. These persistent redshifts are a challenge for one-dimensional hydrodynamic models, which predict only short-duration downflows in response to impulsive heating. We conjecture that energy is being released on many small-scale filaments with a power-law distribution of heating rates.

Modeling sediment yield in small catchments at event scale: Model comparison, development and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Tesfa, T. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment yield (SY) has significant impacts on river biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems but it is rarely represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Existing SY models focus on estimating SY from large river basins or individual catchments so it is not clear how well they simulate SY in ESMs at larger spatial scales and globally. In this study, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of eight well-known SY models in simulating annual mean SY at about 400 small catchments ranging in size from 0.22 to 200 km2 in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. In addition, we also investigate the performance of these models in simulating event-scale SY at six catchments in the US using high-quality hydrological inputs. The model comparison shows that none of the models can reproduce the SY at large spatial scales but the Morgan model performs the better than others despite its simplicity. In all model simulations, large underestimates occur in catchments with very high SY. A possible pathway to reduce the discrepancies is to incorporate sediment detachment by landsliding, which is currently not included in the models being evaluated. We propose a new SY model that is based on the Morgan model but including a landsliding soil detachment scheme that is being developed. Along with the results of the model comparison and evaluation, preliminary findings from the revised Morgan model will be presented.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Sub-Tropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar

Meso-alpha/beta scale observational and meso-beta/gamma scale numerical model analyses were performed to study the atmospheric dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodele Depression dust storms. For each dust storm case study, MERRA reanalysis datasets, WRF simulated very high resolution datasets, MODIS/Aqua and Terra images, EUMETSAT images, NAAPS aerosol modelling plots, CALIPSO images, surface observations, and rawinsonde soundings were analyzed. The analysis of each dust storm carried out separately and an in-depth comparison of the events shows some similarities among the three case studies: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) small scale dust emission events which occurred prior to the formation of the primary large-scale dust storms, (3) cross mountain flows which produced a strong leeside inversion layer prior to the large scale dust storm, (4) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the mid-tropospheric jet streak in the lee of the mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (5) major dust storm formation was accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-beta scale adjustment process, (6) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), (7) formation in the lee of nearby mountains, and (8) the emission of the dust occurred initially in narrow meso-beta scale zones parallel to the mountains, and later reached the meso-alpha scale when suspended dust was transported away from the mountains. In addition to this there were additional meso-beta scale and meso-gamma scale adjustment processes resulting in Kelvin waves in the Harmattan and the Bodele Depression cases and the thermally-forced MPS circulation in all of these three cases. The Kelvin wave preceded a cold pool accompanying the air behind the large scale cold front instrumental in the major dust storm. The Kelvin wave organized the major dust storm in a narrow zone parallel to the mountains before it expanded upscale. The thermally-forced meos-gamma scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, resulted in the numerous dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and the TKE generation. This indicates that there were meso-beta to meso-gamma scale adjustment processes at the lower levels after the imbalance within the exit region of the upper level jet streaks and these processes were responsible for causing the large scale dust storms. Most notably, the sub-tropical jet streak caused the dust storm nearer to the equatorial region after its interaction with the thermally perturbed air mass on the lee of the Tibesti Mountains in the Bodele case study, which is different than the two other cases where the polar jet streaks played this same role at higher latitudes. This represents an original finding. Additionally, a climatological analysis of 15 years (1997-2011) of dust events over the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) in the desert of Southern California was performed to evaluate how the extratropical systems influenced the cause of dust storms over this region. This study indicates that dust events were associated with the development of a deep convective boundary layer, turbulent kinetic energy ≥3 J/kg, a lapse rate between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic, wind speed above the frictional threshold wind speed necessary to ablate dust from the surface (≥7.3m/s), above the surface the presence of a cold trough, and strong cyclonic jet. These processes are similar in many ways to the dynamics in the other subtropical case studies. This also indicated that the annual mean number of dust events, their mean duration, and the unit duration per number of event were positively correlated with each of the visibility ranges, when binned for <11.2km, <8km, <4.8km, <1.6km, and <1km. The percentage of the dust events by season show that most of the dust events occurred in autumn (44.7%), followed by spring (38.3%) and equally in summer and winter with these seasons each accounting for 8.5% of events.

Multi-instrument Observations of Transient Luminous Events Associated with a Small-scale Winter Thunderstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolmasova, I.; Santolik, O.; Spurny, P.; Borovicka, J.; Mlynarczyk, J.; Popek, M.; Lan, R.; Uhlir, L.; Diendorfer, G.; Slosiar, R.

2017-12-01

We present observations of transient luminous events (TLEs) produced by a small-scale winter thunderstorm which occurred on 2 April 2017 in the southwest of Czechia. Elves, sprites and associated positive lightning strokes have been simultaneously recorded by different observational techniques. Optical data include video recordings of TLEs from Nydek (Czechia) and data recorded by high time-resolution photometers at several stations of the Czech fireball network which measured the all-sky brightness originating from lightning return strokes. Electromagnetic data sets include 3-component VLF measurements conducted in Rustrel (France), 2-component ELF measurements recorded at the Hylaty station (Poland) and signal intensity variations of a VLF transmitter (DHO38, Rhauderfehn, Germany) recorded in Bojnice (Slovakia). Optical and electromagnetic data are completed by positions and peak currents of all strokes recorded during the observed thunderstorm by the EUCLID lightning detection network. We focus our analysis on positive lightning discharges with high peak currents and we compare properties of those which produced TLE with properties of discharges for which TLE was not detected. The current moment waveforms and charge moment changes associated with the TLE events are reconstructed from the ELF electromagnetic signals. Obtained current moment waveforms show excellent agreement with high time-resolution optical data.

Assessing the performance of multi-purpose channel management measures at increasing scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Mark; Addy, Steve

2016-04-01

In addition to hydroclimatic drivers, sediment deposition from high energy river systems can reduce channel conveyance capacity and lead to significant increases in flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that we need to work with the interplay of natural hydrological and morphological processes in order to attenuate flood flows and manage sediment (both coarse and fine). This typically includes both catchment (e.g. woodland planting, wetlands) and river (e.g. wood placement, floodplain reconnection) restoration approaches. The aim of this work was to assess at which scales channel management measures (notably wood placement and flood embankment removal) are most appropriate for flood and sediment management in high energy upland river systems. We present research findings from two densely instrumented research sites in Scotland which regularly experience flood events and have associated coarse sediment problems. We assessed the performance of a range of novel trial measures for three different scales: wooded flow restrictors and gully tree planting at the small scale (<1 km2), floodplain tree planting and engineered log jams at the intermediate scale (5-60 km2), and flood embankment lowering at the large scale (350 km2). Our results suggest that at the smallest scale, care is needed in the installation of flow restrictors. It was found for some restrictors that vertical erosion can occur if the tributary channel bed is disturbed. Preliminary model evidence suggested they have a very limited impact on channel discharge and flood peak delay owing to the small storage areas behind the structures. At intermediate scales, the ability to trap sediment by engineered log jams was limited. Of the 45 engineered log jams installed, around half created a small geomorphic response and only 5 captured a significant amount of coarse material (during one large flood event). As scale increases, the chance of damage or loss of wood placement is greatest. Monitoring highlights the importance of structure design (porosity and degree of channel blockage) and placement in zones of high sediment transport to optimise performance. At the large scale, well designed flood embankment lowering can improve connectivity to the floodplain during low to medium return period events. However, ancillary works to stabilise the bank failed thus emphasising the importance of letting natural processes readjust channel morphology and hydrological connections to the floodplain. Although these trial measures demonstrated limited effects, this may be in part owing to restrictions in the range of hydroclimatological conditions during the study period and further work is needed to assess the performance under more extreme conditions. This work will contribute to refining guidance for managing channel coarse sediment problems in the future which in turn could help mitigate flooding using natural approaches.

Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational instability of the 1996-97 lava dome of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, P.D.; Calder, E.S.; Druitt, T.H.; Hoblitt, R.; Robertson, R.; Sparks, R.S.J.; Young, S.R.

1998-01-01

Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9 ?? 106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained dome collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9??106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated dome pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

Using NASA`s Airborne Topographic Mapper IV to Quantify Geomorphic Change in Arid Southwestern Stream Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finnegan, D. C.; Krabill, W.; Lichvar, R. W.; Ericsson, M. P.; Frederick, E.; Manizade, S.; Yungel, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.

2005-12-01

Understanding how arid stream systems respond to individual climatic events is often difficult given the dynamic and `flashy' nature of most watersheds and the unpredictable nature of individual storm events. Until recently conventional methods for quantifying change dictated the use of stream gauge measurements coupled with periodic cross-section measurements to quantify changes in large-scale channel geometry. Using this approach to quantify change across large areas often proves to be impractical and unattainable given the laborious nature of most surveying techniques including modern GPS systems. Alternately, airborne laser technologies such as NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) are capable of quantifying small-scale changes (~5-10cm) across large-scale terrain rapidly and accurately. The ATM was developed at the NASA-GSFC Wallops Flight Facility. Its current version, ATM-4, measures topography 5,000 times per second across a 45-degree swath below the aircraft by transmitting a 532nm (green) laser pulse and receiving the backscattered signal in a high-speed waveform digitizer. The laser range measurements are combined with aircraft location from GPS and attitude from an inertial navigation system (INS) to provide a precise XYZ coordinate for each (~1-meter diameter) laser footprint on the ground. Our work focuses on the use of airborne laser altimetry to quantify the nature of individual surfaces and the geomorphic change that occurs within small arid stream systems during significant storm events. In September of 2003 and 2005 acquisition surveys using NASA's ATM-IV were flown over Mission Creek, a small arid stream system in Southern California's Mojave Desert with a relatively long gauging history (>40yrs), allowing us to quantify the geomorphic change occurring within the channel as a result of the record storm events during the winter of 2004-2005. Preliminary results associated with our work are encouraging and lead us to believe that when compared to conventional GPS surveys that the accuracy of airborne data is well within the boundaries of data collection necessary for accurate scientific measurements.

Preferential transport of isoproturon at a plot scale and a field scale tile-drained site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zehe, Erwin; Flühler, Hannes

2001-06-01

Irrigation experiments using the tracers Brilliant Blue (BB) and Bromide (Br) were conducted on three plots of 1.4×1.4 m 2 (plot scale) and a field scale subsurface drained test site (900 m 2) to clarify mechanisms causing rapid transport of surface applied Isoproturon (IPU) during preferential flow events. One of the small plots (site 10) and the field scale test site are located on the same field. One day after irrigation of the plot scale sites the Br and IPU concentration in two vertical soil profiles as well as the macroporousity on separate profiles and hydraulic properties of single macropores were determined. During irrigation of the field scale test site discharge, soil moisture as well as the concentration of IPU and Br in the drainage outlet were measured. Preferential flow in deep penetrating earthworm burrows caused a fast breakthrough of IPU and Br into the tile drain (1.2 m depth) at the field scale site as well as leaching of IPU into the subsoil (>0.8 m) at site 10. The results suggest a hierarchy of preconditions for the occurrence of preferential flow events of which a sufficient number of deep penetrating macropores interconnected to the soil surface seems to be the most important one. Moreover there is evidence that facilitated transport of IPU attached to mobile soil particles occurred during the preferential flow events at the field scale site and site 10. The susceptibility for preferential flow as well as the susceptibility for facilitated transport appear to be intrinsic properties of the investigated soil.

On the use of GPS tomography to investigate water vapor variability during a Mistral/sea breeze event in southeastern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastin, Sophie; Champollion, Cédric; Bock, Olivier; Drobinski, Philippe; Masson, Frédéric

2005-03-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) tomography analyses of water vapor, complemented by high-resolution numerical simulations are used to investigate a Mistral/sea breeze event in the region of Marseille, France, during the ESCOMPTE experiment. This is the first time GPS tomography has been used to validate the three-dimensional water vapor concentration from numerical simulation, and to analyze a small-scale meteorological event. The high spatial and temporal resolution of GPS analyses provides a unique insight into the evolution of the vertical and horizontal distribution of water vapor during the Mistral/sea-breeze transition.

Multidimensional analysis of data obtained in experiments with X-ray emulsion chambers and extensive air showers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chilingaryan, A. A.; Galfayan, S. K.; Zazyan, M. Z.; Dunaevsky, A. M.

1985-01-01

Nonparametric statistical methods are used to carry out the quantitative comparison of the model and the experimental data. The same methods enable one to select the events initiated by the heavy nuclei and to calculate the portion of the corresponding events. For this purpose it is necessary to have the data on artificial events describing the experiment sufficiently well established. At present, the model with the small scaling violation in the fragmentation region is the closest to the experiments. Therefore, the treatment of gamma families obtained in the Pamir' experiment is being carried out at present with the application of these models.

Energetic Particles of keV–MeV Energies Observed near Reconnecting Current Sheets at 1 au

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khabarova, Olga V.; Zank, Gary P.

2017-07-01

We provide evidence for particle acceleration up to ∼5 MeV at reconnecting current sheets in the solar wind based on both case studies and a statistical analysis of the energetic ion and electron flux data from the five Advanced Composition Explorer Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) detectors. The case study of a typical reconnection exhaust event reveals (i) a small-scale peak of the energetic ion flux observed in the vicinity of the reconnection exhaust and (ii) a long-timescale atypical energetic particle event (AEPE) encompassing the reconnection exhaust. AEPEs associated with reconnecting strong current sheets last for many hours, evenmore » days, as confirmed by statistical studies. The case study shows that time-intensity profiles of the ion flux may vary significantly from one EPAM detector to another partially because of the local topology of magnetic fields, but mainly because of the impact of upstream magnetospheric events; therefore, the occurrence of particle acceleration can be hidden. The finding of significant particle energization within a time interval of ±30 hr around reconnection exhausts is supported by a superposed epoch analysis of 126 reconnection exhaust events. We suggest that energetic particles initially accelerated via prolonged magnetic reconnection are trapped and reaccelerated in small- or medium-scale magnetic islands surrounding the reconnecting current sheet, as predicted by the transport theory of Zank et al. Other mechanisms of initial particle acceleration can contribute also.« less

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Japan. This study is supported by Multidisciplinary research project for Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone promoted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance

PubMed Central

Espírito-Santo, Fernando D.B.; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C. Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Brienen, Roel J.W.; Asner, Gregory P.; Boyd, Doreen S.; Phillips, Oliver L.

2014-01-01

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y−1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y−1, and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y−1. Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink. PMID:24643258

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance.

PubMed

Espírito-Santo, Fernando D B; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R; Feldpausch, Ted R; Brienen, Roel J W; Asner, Gregory P; Boyd, Doreen S; Phillips, Oliver L

2014-03-18

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y(-1) over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y(-1), and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y(-1). Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink.

Hazard assessment for small torrent catchments - lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisl, Julia; Huebl, Johannes

2013-04-01

The documentation of extreme events as a part of the integral risk management cycle is an important basis for the analysis and assessment of natural hazards. In July 2011 a flood event occurred in the Wölzer-valley in the province of Styria, Austria. For this event at the "Wölzerbach" a detailed event documentation was carried out, gathering data about rainfall, runoff and sediment transport as well as information on damaged objects, infrastructure or crops using various sources. The flood was triggered by heavy rainfalls in two tributaries of the Wölzer-river. Though a rain as well as a discharge gaging station exists for the Wölzer-river, the torrents affected by the high intensity rainfalls are ungaged. For these ungaged torrent catchments the common methods for hazard assessment were evaluated. The back-calculation of the rainfall event was done using a new approach for precipitation analysis. In torrent catchments especially small-scale and high-intensity rainfall events are mainly responsible for extreme events. Austria's weather surveillance radar is operated by the air traffic service "AustroControl". The usually available dataset is interpreted and shows divergences especially when it comes to high intensity rainfalls. For this study the raw data of the radar were requested and analysed. Further on the event was back-calculated with different rainfall-runoff models, hydraulic models and sediment transport models to obtain calibration parameters for future use in hazard assessment for this region. Since there are often problems with woody debris different scenarios were simulated. The calibrated and plausible results from the runoff models were used for the comparison with empirical approaches used in the practical sector. For the planning of mitigation measures of the Schöttl-torrent, which is one of the affected tributaries of the Wölzer-river, a physical scale model was used in addition to the insights of the event analysis to design a check dam for sediment retention. As far as the transport capacity of the lower reaches is limited a balance had to be found between protection on the one hand and sediment connectivity to the Wölzer-river on the other. The lessons learned kicked off discussions for future hazard assessment especially concerning the use of rainfall data and design precipitation values for small torrent catchments. Also the comparison with empirical values showed the need for differentiated concepts for hazard analysis. Therefor recommendations for the use of spatial rainfall reduction factors as well as the demarcation of hazard maps using different event scenarios are proposed.

Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

EPA Science Inventory

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60min after initiation of runoff, with plot-scale monitoring o...

Rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010 were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied, then halted 60 minutes after initiation of runoff, with plot-scale monitoring of runoff ever...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, J.R.; Marshall, M.E.; Barker, B.W.

In situations where cavity decoupling of underground nuclear explosions is a plausible evasion scenario, comprehensive seismic monitoring of any eventual CTBT will require the routine identification of many small seismic events with magnitudes in the range 2.0 < m sub b < 3.5. However, since such events are not expected to be detected teleseismically, their magnitudes will have to be estimated from regional recordings using seismic phases and frequency bands which are different from those employed in the teleseismic m sub b scale which is generally used to specify monitoring capability. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the m submore » b equivalences of any selected regional magnitude measures in order to estimate the expected detection statistics and thresholds of proposed CTBT seismic monitoring networks. In the investigations summarized in this report, this has been accomplished through analyses of synthetic data obtained by theoretically scaling observed regional seismic data recorded in Scandinavia and Central Asia from various tamped nuclear tests to obtain estimates of the corresponding seismic signals to be expected from small cavity decoupled nuclear tests at those same source locations.« less

NARROW-LINE-WIDTH UV BURSTS IN THE TRANSITION REGION ABOVE SUNSPOTS OBSERVED BY IRIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Zhenyong; Huang, Zhenghua; Xia, Lidong

Various small-scale structures abound in the solar atmosphere above active regions, playing an important role in the dynamics and evolution therein. We report on a new class of small-scale transition region structures in active regions, characterized by strong emissions but extremely narrow Si iv line profiles as found in observations taken with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Tentatively named as narrow-line-width UV bursts (NUBs), these structures are located above sunspots and comprise one or multiple compact bright cores at sub-arcsecond scales. We found six NUBs in two data sets (a raster and a sit-and-stare data set). Among these, fourmore » events are short-lived with a duration of ∼10 minutes, while two last for more than 36 minutes. All NUBs have Doppler shifts of 15–18 km s{sup −1}, while the NUB found in sit-and-stare data possesses an additional component at ∼50 km s{sup −1} found only in the C ii and Mg ii lines. Given that these events are found to play a role in the local dynamics, it is important to further investigate the physical mechanisms that generate these phenomena and their role in the mass transport in sunspots.« less

Direct Numerical Simulations of Small-Scale Gravity Wave Instability Dynamics in Variable Stratification and Shear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mixa, T.; Fritts, D. C.; Laughman, B.; Wang, L.; Kantha, L. H.

2015-12-01

Multiple observations provide compelling evidence that gravity wave dissipation events often occur in multi-scale environments having highly-structured wind and stability profiles extending from the stable boundary layer into the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Such events tend to be highly localized and thus yield local energy and momentum deposition and efficient secondary gravity wave generation expected to have strong influences at higher altitudes [e.g., Fritts et al., 2013; Baumgarten and Fritts, 2014]. Lidars, radars, and airglow imagers typically cannot achieve the spatial resolution needed to fully quantify these small-scale instability dynamics. Hence, we employ high-resolution modeling to explore these dynamics in representative environments. Specifically, we describe numerical studies of gravity wave packets impinging on a sheet of high stratification and shear and the resulting instabilities and impacts on the gravity wave amplitude and momentum flux for various flow and gravity wave parameters. References: Baumgarten, Gerd, and David C. Fritts (2014). Quantifying Kelvin-Helmholtz instability dynamics observed in noctilucent clouds: 1. Methods and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119.15, 9324-9337. Fritts, D. C., Wang, L., & Werne, J. A. (2013). Gravity wave-fine structure interactions. Part I: Influences of fine structure form and orientation on flow evolution and instability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70(12), 3710-3734.

Evaluating Southern Ocean Carbon Eddy-Pump From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llort, Joan; Langlais, C.; Matear, R.; Moreau, S.; Lenton, A.; Strutton, Peter G.

2018-02-01

The vertical transport of surface water and carbon into ocean's interior, known as subduction, is one of the main mechanisms through which the ocean influences Earth's climate. New instrumental approaches have shown the occurrence of localized and intermittent subduction episodes associated with small-scale ocean circulation features. These studies also revealed the importance of such events for the export of organic matter, the so-called eddy-pump. However, the transient and localized nature of episodic subduction hindered its large-scale evaluation to date. In this work, we present an approach to detect subduction events at the scale of the Southern Ocean using measurements collected by biogeochemical autonomous floats (BGCArgo). We show how subduction events can be automatically identified as anomalies of spiciness and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) below the mixed layer. Using this methodology over more than 4,000 profiles, we detected 40 subduction events unevenly distributed across the Sothern Ocean. Events were more likely found in hot spots of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), downstream major bathymetric features. Moreover, the bio-optical measurements provided by BGCArgo allowed measuring the amount of Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) being subducted and assessing the contribution of these events to the total downward carbon flux at 100 m (EP100). We estimated that the eddy-pump represents less than 19% to the EP100 in the Southern Ocean, although we observed particularly strong events able to locally duplicate the EP100. This approach provides a novel perspective on where episodic subduction occurs that will be naturally improved as BGCArgo observations continue to increase.

Stochastic summation of empirical Green's functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wennerberg, Leif

1990-01-01

Two simple strategies are presented that use random delay times for repeatedly summing the record of a relatively small earthquake to simulate the effects of a larger earthquake. The simulations do not assume any fault plane geometry or rupture dynamics, but realy only on the ω−2 spectral model of an earthquake source and elementary notions of source complexity. The strategies simulate ground motions for all frequencies within the bandwidth of the record of the event used as a summand. The first strategy, which introduces the basic ideas, is a single-stage procedure that consists of simply adding many small events with random time delays. The probability distribution for delays has the property that its amplitude spectrum is determined by the ratio of ω−2 spectra, and its phase spectrum is identically zero. A simple expression is given for the computation of this zero-phase scaling distribution. The moment rate function resulting from the single-stage simulation is quite simple and hence is probably not realistic for high-frequency (>1 Hz) ground motion of events larger than ML∼ 4.5 to 5. The second strategy is a two-stage summation that simulates source complexity with a few random subevent delays determined using the zero-phase scaling distribution, and then clusters energy around these delays to get an ω−2 spectrum for the sum. Thus, the two-stage strategy allows simulations of complex events of any size for which the ω−2 spectral model applies. Interestingly, a single-stage simulation with too few ω−2records to get a good fit to an ω−2 large-event target spectrum yields a record whose spectral asymptotes are consistent with the ω−2 model, but that includes a region in its spectrum between the corner frequencies of the larger and smaller events reasonably approximated by a power law trend. This spectral feature has also been discussed as reflecting the process of partial stress release (Brune, 1970), an asperity failure (Boatwright, 1984), or the breakdown of ω−2 scaling due to rupture significantly longer than the width of the seismogenic zone (Joyner, 1984).

The Ramifications of Meddling with Systems Governed by Self-organized Critical Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, I.

2002-12-01

Complex natural, well as man-made, systems often exhibit characteristics similar to those seen in self-organized critical (SOC) systems. The concept of self-organized criticality brings together ideas of self-organization of nonlinear dynamical systems with the often-observed near critical behavior of many natural phenomena. These phenomena exhibit self-similarities over extended ranges of spatial and temporal scales. In those systems, scale lengths may be described by fractal geometry and time scales that lead to 1/f-like power spectra. Natural applications include modeling the motion of tectonics plates, forest fires, magnetospheric dynamics, spin glass systems, and turbulent transport. In man-made systems, applications have included traffic dynamics, power and communications networks, and financial markets among many others. Simple cellular automata models such as the running sandpile model have been very useful in reproducing the complexity and characteristics of these systems. One characteristic property of the SOC systems is that they relax through what we call events. These events can happen over all scales of the system. Examples of these events are: earthquakes in the case of plate tectonic; fires in forest evolution extinction in the co evolution of biological species; and blackouts in power transmission systems. In a time-averaged sense, these systems are subcritical (that is, they lie in an average state that should not trigger any events) and the relaxation events happen intermittently. The time spent in a subcritical state relative to the time of the events varies from one system to another. For instance, the chance of finding a forest on fire is very low with the frequency of fires being on the order of one fire every few years and with many of these fires small and inconsequential. Very large fires happen over time periods of decades or even centuries. However, because of their consequences, these large but infrequent events are the important ones to understand, control and minimize. The main thrust of this research is to understand how and when global events occur in such systems when we apply mitigation techniques and how this impacts risk assessment. As sample systems we investigate both forest fire models and electrical power transmission network models, though the results are probably applicable to a wide variety of systems. It is found, perhaps counter intuitively, that apparently sensible attempts to mitigate failures in such complex systems can have adverse effects and therefore must be approached with care. The success of mitigation efforts in SOC systems is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the system. Unless the mitigation efforts alter the self-organization forces driving the system, the system will in general be pushed toward criticality. To alter those forces with mitigation efforts may be quite difficult because the forces are an intrinsic part of the system. Moreover, in many cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions will increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics. Before discussing this in the more complicated case of power systems, we will illustrate this phenomenon with a forest fire model.

Communication: Standard surface hopping predicts incorrect scaling for Marcus' golden-rule rate: The decoherence problem cannot be ignored

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landry, Brian R.; Subotnik, Joseph E.

2011-11-01

We evaluate the accuracy of Tully's surface hopping algorithm for the spin-boson model for the case of a small diabatic coupling parameter (V). We calculate the transition rates between diabatic surfaces, and we compare our results to the expected Marcus rates. We show that standard surface hopping yields an incorrect scaling with diabatic coupling (linear in V), which we demonstrate is due to an incorrect treatment of decoherence. By modifying standard surface hopping to include decoherence events, we recover the correct scaling (˜V2).

A full-angle Monte-Carlo scattering technique including cumulative and single-event Rutherford scattering in plasmas [Theory of cumulative large-angle collisions in plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higginson, Drew P.

Here, we describe and justify a full-angle scattering (FAS) method to faithfully reproduce the accumulated differential angular Rutherford scattering probability distribution function (pdf) of particles in a plasma. The FAS method splits the scattering events into two regions. At small angles it is described by cumulative scattering events resulting, via the central limit theorem, in a Gaussian-like pdf; at larger angles it is described by single-event scatters and retains a pdf that follows the form of the Rutherford differential cross-section. The FAS method is verified using discrete Monte-Carlo scattering simulations run at small timesteps to include each individual scattering event.more » We identify the FAS regime of interest as where the ratio of temporal/spatial scale-of-interest to slowing-down time/length is from 10 -3 to 0.3–0.7; the upper limit corresponds to Coulomb logarithm of 20–2, respectively. Two test problems, high-velocity interpenetrating plasma flows and keV-temperature ion equilibration, are used to highlight systems where including FAS is important to capture relevant physics.« less

A full-angle Monte-Carlo scattering technique including cumulative and single-event Rutherford scattering in plasmas [Theory of cumulative large-angle collisions in plasmas

DOE PAGES

Higginson, Drew P.

2017-08-12

Here, we describe and justify a full-angle scattering (FAS) method to faithfully reproduce the accumulated differential angular Rutherford scattering probability distribution function (pdf) of particles in a plasma. The FAS method splits the scattering events into two regions. At small angles it is described by cumulative scattering events resulting, via the central limit theorem, in a Gaussian-like pdf; at larger angles it is described by single-event scatters and retains a pdf that follows the form of the Rutherford differential cross-section. The FAS method is verified using discrete Monte-Carlo scattering simulations run at small timesteps to include each individual scattering event.more » We identify the FAS regime of interest as where the ratio of temporal/spatial scale-of-interest to slowing-down time/length is from 10 -3 to 0.3–0.7; the upper limit corresponds to Coulomb logarithm of 20–2, respectively. Two test problems, high-velocity interpenetrating plasma flows and keV-temperature ion equilibration, are used to highlight systems where including FAS is important to capture relevant physics.« less

Weather observations on Whistler Mountain during five storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thériault, Julie M.; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Fisico, Teresa; Stewart, Ronald E.; Joe, Paul; Gultepe, Ismail; Clément, Marilys; Isaac, George A.

2014-01-01

A greater understanding of precipitation formation processes over complex terrain near the west coast of British Colombia will contribute to many relevant applications, such as climate studies, local hydrology, transportation, and winter sport competition. The phase of precipitation is difficult to determine because of the warm and moist weather conditions experienced during the wintertime in coastal mountain ranges. The goal of this study is to investigate the wide range of meteorological conditions that generated precipitation on Whistler Mountain from 4-12 March 2010 during the SNOW-V10 field campaign. During this time period, five different storms were documented in detail and were associated with noticeably different meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Whistler Mountain. New measurement techniques, along with the SNOW-V10 instrumentation, were used to obtain in situ observations during precipitation events along the Whistler mountainside. The results demonstrate a high variability of weather conditions ranging from the synoptic-scale to the macro-scale. These weather events were associated with a variation of precipitation along the mountainside, such as events associated with snow, snow pellets, and rain. Only two events associated with a rain-snow transition along the mountainside were observed, even though above-freezing temperatures along the mountainside were recorded 90 % of the time. On a smaller scale, these events were also associated with a high variability of snowflake types that were observed simultaneously near the top of Whistler Mountain. Overall, these detailed observations demonstrate the importance of understanding small-scale processes to improve observational techniques, short-term weather prediction, and longer-term climate projections over mountainous regions.

A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

Age distribution of human gene families shows significant roles of both large- and small-scale duplications in vertebrate evolution.

PubMed

Gu, Xun; Wang, Yufeng; Gu, Jianying

2002-06-01

The classical (two-round) hypothesis of vertebrate genome duplication proposes two successive whole-genome duplication(s) (polyploidizations) predating the origin of fishes, a view now being seriously challenged. As the debate largely concerns the relative merits of the 'big-bang mode' theory (large-scale duplication) and the 'continuous mode' theory (constant creation by small-scale duplications), we tested whether a significant proportion of paralogous genes in the contemporary human genome was indeed generated in the early stage of vertebrate evolution. After an extensive search of major databases, we dated 1,739 gene duplication events from the phylogenetic analysis of 749 vertebrate gene families. We found a pattern characterized by two waves (I, II) and an ancient component. Wave I represents a recent gene family expansion by tandem or segmental duplications, whereas wave II, a rapid paralogous gene increase in the early stage of vertebrate evolution, supports the idea of genome duplication(s) (the big-bang mode). Further analysis indicated that large- and small-scale gene duplications both make a significant contribution during the early stage of vertebrate evolution to build the current hierarchy of the human proteome.

Modified interferometric imaging condition for reverse-time migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xue-Bao; Liu, Hong; Shi, Ying

2018-01-01

For reverse-time migration, high-resolution imaging mainly depends on the accuracy of the velocity model and the imaging condition. In practice, however, the small-scale components of the velocity model cannot be estimated by tomographical methods; therefore, the wavefields are not accurately reconstructed from the background velocity, and the imaging process will generate artefacts. Some of the noise is due to cross-correlation of unrelated seismic events. Interferometric imaging condition suppresses imaging noise very effectively, especially the unknown random disturbance of the small-scale part. The conventional interferometric imaging condition is extended in this study to obtain a new imaging condition based on the pseudo-Wigner distribution function (WDF). Numerical examples show that the modified interferometric imaging condition improves imaging precision.

Small Traditional Human Communities Sustain Genomic Diversity over Microgeographic Scales despite Linguistic Isolation

PubMed Central

Cox, Murray P.; Hudjashov, Georgi; Sim, Andre; Savina, Olga; Karafet, Tatiana M.; Sudoyo, Herawati; Lansing, J. Stephen

2016-01-01

At least since the Neolithic, humans have largely lived in networks of small, traditional communities. Often socially isolated, these groups evolved distinct languages and cultures over microgeographic scales of just tens of kilometers. Population genetic theory tells us that genetic drift should act quickly in such isolated groups, thus raising the question: do networks of small human communities maintain levels of genetic diversity over microgeographic scales? This question can no longer be asked in most parts of the world, which have been heavily impacted by historical events that make traditional society structures the exception. However, such studies remain possible in parts of Island Southeast Asia and Oceania, where traditional ways of life are still practiced. We captured genome-wide genetic data, together with linguistic records, for a case–study system—eight villages distributed across Sumba, a small, remote island in eastern Indonesia. More than 4,000 years after these communities were established during the Neolithic period, most speak different languages and can be distinguished genetically. Yet their nuclear diversity is not reduced, instead being comparable to other, even much larger, regional groups. Modeling reveals a separation of time scales: while languages and culture can evolve quickly, creating social barriers, sporadic migration averaged over many generations is sufficient to keep villages linked genetically. This loosely-connected network structure, once the global norm and still extant on Sumba today, provides a living proxy to explore fine-scale genome dynamics in the sort of small traditional communities within which the most recent episodes of human evolution occurred. PMID:27274003

Effects of Soil Moisture Thresholds in Runoff Generation in two nested gauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorentino, M.; Gioia, A.; Iacobellis, V.; Manfreda, S.; Margiotta, M. R.; Onorati, B.; Rivelli, A. R.; Sole, A.

2009-04-01

Regarding catchment response to intense storm events, while the relevance of antecedent soil moisture conditions is generally recognized, the role and the quantification of runoff thresholds is still uncertain. Among others, Grayson et al. (1997) argue that above a wetness threshold a substantial portion of a small basin acts in unison and contributes to the runoff production. Investigations were conducted through an experimental approach and in particular exploiting the hydrological data monitored on "Fiumarella of Corleto" catchment (Southern Italy). The field instrumentation ensures continuous monitoring of all fundamental hydrological variables: climate forcing, streamflow and soil moisture. The experimental basin is equipped with two water level installations used to measure the hydrological response of the entire basin (with an area of 32 km2) and of a subcatchment of 0.65 km2. The aim of the present research is to better understand the dynamics of soil moisture and the runoff generation during flood events, comparing the data recorded in the transect and the runoff at the two different scales. Particular attention was paid to the influence of the soil moisture content on runoff activation mechanisms. We found that, the threshold value, responsible of runoff activation, is equal or almost to field capacity. In fact, we observed a rapid change in the subcatchment response when the mean soil moisture reaches a value close to the range of variability of the field capacity measured along a monitored transect of the small subcatchment. During dry periods the runoff coefficient is almost zero for each of the events recorded. During wet periods, however, it is rather variable and depends almost only on the total rainfall. Changing from the small scale (0.65 km2) up to the medium scale (represented by the basin of 32 km2) the threshold mechanism in runoff production is less detectable because masked by the increased spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation cover and soil texture.

Overcoming time scale and finite size limitations to compute nucleation rates from small scale well tempered metadynamics simulations.

PubMed

Salvalaglio, Matteo; Tiwary, Pratyush; Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco; Parrinello, Michele

2016-12-07

Condensation of a liquid droplet from a supersaturated vapour phase is initiated by a prototypical nucleation event. As such it is challenging to compute its rate from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. In fact at realistic supersaturation conditions condensation occurs on time scales that far exceed what can be reached with conventional molecular dynamics methods. Another known problem in this context is the distortion of the free energy profile associated to nucleation due to the small, finite size of typical simulation boxes. In this work the problem of time scale is addressed with a recently developed enhanced sampling method while contextually correcting for finite size effects. We demonstrate our approach by studying the condensation of argon, and showing that characteristic nucleation times of the order of magnitude of hours can be reliably calculated. Nucleation rates spanning a range of 10 orders of magnitude are computed at moderate supersaturation levels, thus bridging the gap between what standard molecular dynamics simulations can do and real physical systems.

Overcoming time scale and finite size limitations to compute nucleation rates from small scale well tempered metadynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvalaglio, Matteo; Tiwary, Pratyush; Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco; Parrinello, Michele

2016-12-01

Condensation of a liquid droplet from a supersaturated vapour phase is initiated by a prototypical nucleation event. As such it is challenging to compute its rate from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. In fact at realistic supersaturation conditions condensation occurs on time scales that far exceed what can be reached with conventional molecular dynamics methods. Another known problem in this context is the distortion of the free energy profile associated to nucleation due to the small, finite size of typical simulation boxes. In this work the problem of time scale is addressed with a recently developed enhanced sampling method while contextually correcting for finite size effects. We demonstrate our approach by studying the condensation of argon, and showing that characteristic nucleation times of the order of magnitude of hours can be reliably calculated. Nucleation rates spanning a range of 10 orders of magnitude are computed at moderate supersaturation levels, thus bridging the gap between what standard molecular dynamics simulations can do and real physical systems.

Validating a mass balance accounting approach to using 7Be measurements to estimate event-based erosion rates over an extended period at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.; Cogliandro, Vanessa; Callegari, Giovanni

2016-07-01

Use of the fallout radionuclides cesium-137 and excess lead-210 offers important advantages over traditional methods of quantifying erosion and soil redistribution rates. However, both radionuclides provide information on longer-term (i.e., 50-100 years) average rates of soil redistribution. Beryllium-7, with its half-life of 53 days, can provide a basis for documenting short-term soil redistribution and it has been successfully employed in several studies. However, the approach commonly used introduces several important constraints related to the timing and duration of the study period. A new approach proposed by the authors that overcomes these constraints has been successfully validated using an erosion plot experiment undertaken in southern Italy. Here, a further validation exercise undertaken in a small (1.38 ha) catchment is reported. The catchment was instrumented to measure event sediment yields and beryllium-7 measurements were employed to document the net soil loss for a series of 13 events that occurred between November 2013 and June 2015. In the absence of significant sediment storage within the catchment's ephemeral channel system and of a significant contribution from channel erosion to the measured sediment yield, the estimates of net soil loss for the individual events could be directly compared with the measured sediment yields to validate the former. The close agreement of the two sets of values is seen as successfully validating the use of beryllium-7 measurements and the new approach to obtain estimates of net soil loss for a sequence of individual events occurring over an extended period at the scale of a small catchment.

Association of 3He-rich solar energetic particles with large-scale coronal waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucik, Radoslav; Innes, Davina; Guo, Lijia; Mason, Glenn M.; Wiedenbeck, Mark

2016-07-01

Impulsive or 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been typically associated with jets or small EUV brightenings. We identify 30 impulsive SEP events from ACE at L1 during the solar minimum period 2007-2010 and examine their solar sources with high resolution STEREO-A EUV images. At beginning of 2007, STEREO-A was near the Earth while at the end of the investigated period, when there were more events, STEREO-A was leading the Earth by 90°. Thus STEREO-A provided a better (more direct) view on 3He-rich flares generally located on the western Sun's hemisphere. Surprisingly, we find that about half of the events are associated with large-scale EUV coronal waves. This finding provides new insights on acceleration and transport of 3He-rich SEPs in solar corona. It is believed that elemental and isotopic fractionation in impulsive SEP events is caused by more localized processes operating in the flare sites. The EUV waves have been reported in gradual SEP events in association with fast coronal mass ejections. To examine their role on 3He-rich SEPs production the energy spectra and relative abundances are discussed. R. Bucik is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under grant BU 3115/2-1.

New Self-lensing Models of the Small Magellanic Cloud: Can Gravitational Microlensing Detect Extragalactic Exoplanets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mróz, Przemek; Poleski, Radosław

2018-04-01

We use three-dimensional distributions of classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) to model the stellar density distribution of a young and old stellar population in that galaxy. We use these models to estimate the microlensing self-lensing optical depth to the SMC, which is in excellent agreement with the observations. Our models are consistent with the total stellar mass of the SMC of about 1.0× {10}9 {M}ȯ under the assumption that all microlensing events toward this galaxy are caused by self-lensing. We also calculate the expected event rates and estimate that future large-scale surveys, like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), will be able to detect up to a few dozen microlensing events in the SMC annually. If the planet frequency in the SMC is similar to that in the Milky Way, a few extragalactic planets can be detected over the course of the LSST survey, provided significant changes in the SMC observing strategy are devised. A relatively small investment of LSST resources can give us a unique probe of the population of extragalactic exoplanets.

Limits on radio emission from meteors using the MWA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang; Hancock, Paul; Devillepoix, Hadrien A. R.; Wayth, Randall B.; Beardsley, A.; Crosse, B.; Emrich, D.; Franzen, T. M. O.; Gaensler, B. M.; Horsley, L.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kaplan, D. L.; Kenney, D.; Morales, M. F.; Pallot, D.; Steele, K.; Tingay, S. J.; Trott, C. M.; Walker, M.; Williams, A.; Wu, C.; Ji, Jianghui; Ma, Yuehua

2018-04-01

Recently, low frequency, broadband radio emission has been observed accompanying bright meteors by the Long Wavelength Array (LWA). The broadband spectra between 20 and 60 MHz were captured for several events, while the spectral index (dependence of flux density on frequency, with Sν∝να) was estimated to be -4 ± 1 during the peak of meteor afterglows. Here we present a survey of meteor emission and other transient events using the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) at 72-103 MHz. In our 322-hour survey, down to a 5σ detection threshold of 3.5 Jy/beam, no transient candidates were identified as intrinsic emission from meteors. We derived an upper limit of -3.7 (95% confidence limit) on the spectral index in our frequency range. We also report detections of other transient events, like reflected FM broadcast signals from small satellites, conclusively demonstrating the ability of the MWA to detect and track space debris on scales as small as 0.1 m in low Earth orbits.

Landscape-scale forest disturbance regimes in southern Peruvian Amazonia.

PubMed

Boyd, Doreen S; Hill, Ross A; Hopkinson, Chris; Baker, Timothy R

2013-10-01

Landscape-scale gap-size frequency distributions in tropical forests are a poorly studied but key ecological variable. Currently, a scale gap currently exists between local-scale field-based studies and those employing regional-scale medium-resolution satellite data. Data at landscape scales but of fine resolution would, however, facilitate investigation into a range of ecological questions relating to gap dynamics. These include whether canopy disturbances captured in permanent sample plots (PSPs) are representative of those in their surrounding landscape, and whether disturbance regimes vary with forest type. Here, therefore, we employ airborne LiDAR data captured over 142.5 km2 of mature, swamp, and regenerating forests in southeast Peru to assess the landscape-scale disturbance at a sampling resolution of up to 2 m. We find that this landscape is characterized by large numbers of small gaps; large disturbance events are insignificant and infrequent. Of the total number of gaps that are 2 m2 or larger in area, just 0.45% were larger than 100 m2, with a power-law exponent (alpha) value of the gap-size frequency distribution of 2.22. However, differences in disturbance regimes are seen among different forest types, with a significant difference in the alpha value of the gap-size frequency distribution observed for the swamp/regenerating forests compared with the mature forests at higher elevations. Although a relatively small area of the total forest of this region was investigated here, this study presents an unprecedented assessment of this landscape with respect to its gap dynamics. This is particularly pertinent given the range of forest types present in the landscape and the differences observed. The coupling of detailed insights into forest properties and growth provided by PSPs with the broader statistics of disturbance events using remote sensing is recommended as a strong basis for scaling-up estimates of landscape and regional-scale carbon balance.

A SOLAR CORONAL JET EVENT TRIGGERS A CORONAL MASS EJECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jiajia; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong

2015-11-10

In this paper, we present multi-point, multi-wavelength observations and analysis of a solar coronal jet and coronal mass ejection (CME) event. Employing the GCS model, we obtained the real (three-dimensional) heliocentric distance and direction of the CME and found it to propagate at a high speed of over 1000 km s{sup −1}. The jet erupted before the CME and shared the same source region. The temporal and spacial relationship between these two events lead us to the possibility that the jet triggered the CME and became its core. This scenario hold the promise of enriching our understanding of the triggeringmore » mechanism of CMEs and their relations to coronal large-scale jets. On the other hand, the magnetic field configuration of the source region observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/HMI instrument along with the off-limb inverse Y-shaped configuration observed by SDO/AIA in the 171 Å passband provide the first detailed observation of the three-dimensional reconnection process of a large-scale jet as simulated in Pariat et al. The eruption process of the jet highlights the importance of filament-like material during the eruption of not only small-scale X-ray jets, but likely also of large-scale EUV jets. Based on our observations and analysis, we propose the most probable mechanism for the whole event, with a blob structure overlaying the three-dimensional structure of the jet, to describe the interaction between the jet and the CME.« less

Conifer regeneration in stand-replacement portions of a large mixed-severity wildfire in the Klamath-Siskiyou Mountains

Treesearch

Daniel C. Donato; Joseph B. Fontaine; John L. Campbell; W. Douglas Robinson; J. Boone Kauffman; Beverly E. Law

2009-01-01

Large-scale wildfires (~104-106 ha) have the potential to eliminate seed sources over broad areas and thus may lead to qualitatively different regeneration dynamics than in small burns; however, regeneration after such events has received little study in temperate forests. Following a 200 000 ha mixed-severity...

High fluid pressure and triggered earthquakes in the enhanced geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terakawa, T.; Miller, S. A.; Deichmann, N.

2011-12-01

We estimate the pore fluid pressure field of the stimulated region during the fluid injection experiment in Basel, Switzerland by analyzing 118 well-constrained focal mechanisms. This technique, termed focal mechanism tomography (FMT), uses the orientations of the slip planes within the prevailing regional stress field as indicator of the fluid pressure along the plane at the time of slip. Elevated pore fluid pressures were concentrated within 500 m of the open hole section, and we find average earthquake triggering excess pressures of about 10MPa, with a peak value of 19.3 MPa, consistent with the known wellhead pressure applied at the borehole. Our results demonstrate that FMT is a robust approach, being validated at the macroscopic scale of the Basel stimulation experiment. Over-pressurized fluids induced many small events (M < 3) along faults unfavourably-oriented relative to the tectonic stress pattern, while larger events tended to occur along optimally-oriented faults. This suggests that small-scale hydraulic networks, developed from the high pressure stimulation, interact to load (hydraulically isolated) high strength bridges that produce the larger events. The triggering pore fluid pressures are substantially higher than that predicted from a linear pressure diffusion process from the source boundary, showing that the system is highly permeable along flow paths, allowing fast pressure diffusion to the boundaries of the stimulated region.

Discharge-related trends in the composition of particulate organic matter exported by small mountainous rivers: results from Oregon and California (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goni, M. A.; Hatten, J. A.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Borgeld, J.; Williamson, A.; Padgett, J.; Pasternack, G. B.; Gray, A.; Watson, E. B.

2009-12-01

Small mountainous rivers display highly variable discharges on both seasonal and event scales. Previous work has shown marked differences in the composition of the particulate load of rivers collected at different stages of the hydrograph, but fewer studies have specifically investigated how the biogeochemical compositions of particulate organic matter change as a function of discharge and how this variation affects the characteristics of the materials reaching the ocean. We explore these issues using data from three rivers along the west coast of the U.S. (Umpqua, Eel and Salinas) with similar watershed size but contrasting climate, vegetation and land use. Coarse and fine particulate organic matter samples collected at different discharges, including several flood events, were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions, radiocarbon compositions and yields of different organic biomarkers (e.g. lignin phenols, cutin acids, amino acid products). This presentation will focus on comparing and contrasting the provenance, age, and biochemical make-up of materials transported by each of the rivers as a function of discharge. Seasonal and event-scale differences in organic matter concentrations and compositions will be the subject of an accompanying poster. We will discuss both the processes responsible for these contrasts and the impacts they have on the delivery and fate of terrigenous organic matter in the coastal ocean.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.

2010-01-01

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Reversing flow causes passive shark scale actuation in a separating turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Amy; Gemmell, Bradford; Motta, Phil; Habegger, Laura; Du Clos, Kevin; Devey, Sean; Stanley, Caleb; Santos, Leo

2017-11-01

Control of flow separation by shortfin mako skin in experiments has been demonstrated, but the mechanism is still poorly understood yet must be to some extent Re independent. The hypothesized mechanisms inherent in the shark skin for controlling flow separation are: (1) the scales, which are capable of being bristled only by reversing flow, inhibit flow reversal events from further development into larger-scale separation and (2) the cavities formed when scales bristle induces mixing of high momentum flow towards the wall thus energizing the flow close to the surface. Two studies were carried out to measure passive scale actuation caused by reversing flow. A small flow channel induced an unsteady, wake flow over the scales prompting reversing flow events and scale actuation. To resolve the flow and scale movements simultaneously we used specialized optics at high magnification (1 mm field of view) at 50,000 fps. In another study, 3D printed models of shark scales, or microflaps (bristling capability up to 50 degrees), were set into a flat plate. Using a tripped, turbulent boundary layer grown over the long flat plate and a localized adverse pressure gradient, a separation bubble was generated within which the microflaps were placed. Passive flow actuation of both shark scales and microflaps by reversing flow was observed. Funding from Army Research Office and NSF REU site Grant.

Testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, with application to earthquake occurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I.; Naylor, M.; Greenhough, J.; Touati, S.; Bell, A.; McCloskey, J.

2009-04-01

We address the generic problem of testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, i.e. are the biggest events in a population simply a scaled model of those of smaller size, or are they in some way different? Are large earthquakes for example ‘characteristic', do they ‘know' how big they will be before the event nucleates, or is the size of the event determined only in the avalanche-like process of rupture? In either case what are the implications for estimates of time-dependent seismic hazard? One way of testing for departures from scale invariance is to examine the frequency-size statistics, commonly used as a bench mark in a number of applications in Earth and Environmental sciences. Using frequency data however introduces a number of problems in data analysis. The inevitably small number of data points for extreme events and more generally the non-Gaussian statistical properties strongly affect the validity of prior assumptions about the nature of uncertainties in the data. The simple use of traditional least squares (still common in the literature) introduces an inherent bias to the best fit result. We show first that the sampled frequency in finite real and synthetic data sets (the latter based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model) converge to a central limit only very slowly due to temporal correlations in the data. A specific correction for temporal correlations enables an estimate of convergence properties to be mapped non-linearly on to a Gaussian one. Uncertainties closely follow a Poisson distribution of errors across the whole range of seismic moment for typical catalogue sizes. In this sense the confidence limits are scale-invariant. A systematic sample bias effect due to counting whole numbers in a finite catalogue makes a ‘characteristic'-looking type extreme event distribution a likely outcome of an underlying scale-invariant probability distribution. This highlights the tendency of ‘eyeball' fits unconsciously (but wrongly in this case) to assume Gaussian errors. We develop methods to correct for these effects, and show that the current best fit maximum likelihood regression model for the global frequency-moment distribution in the digital era is a power law, i.e. mega-earthquakes continue to follow the Gutenberg-Richter trend of smaller earthquakes with no (as yet) observable cut-off or characteristic extreme event. The results may also have implications for the interpretation of other time-limited geophysical time series that exhibit power-law scaling.

A Spiking Neural Simulator Integrating Event-Driven and Time-Driven Computation Schemes Using Parallel CPU-GPU Co-Processing: A Case Study.

PubMed

Naveros, Francisco; Luque, Niceto R; Garrido, Jesús A; Carrillo, Richard R; Anguita, Mancia; Ros, Eduardo

2015-07-01

Time-driven simulation methods in traditional CPU architectures perform well and precisely when simulating small-scale spiking neural networks. Nevertheless, they still have drawbacks when simulating large-scale systems. Conversely, event-driven simulation methods in CPUs and time-driven simulation methods in graphic processing units (GPUs) can outperform CPU time-driven methods under certain conditions. With this performance improvement in mind, we have developed an event-and-time-driven spiking neural network simulator suitable for a hybrid CPU-GPU platform. Our neural simulator is able to efficiently simulate bio-inspired spiking neural networks consisting of different neural models, which can be distributed heterogeneously in both small layers and large layers or subsystems. For the sake of efficiency, the low-activity parts of the neural network can be simulated in CPU using event-driven methods while the high-activity subsystems can be simulated in either CPU (a few neurons) or GPU (thousands or millions of neurons) using time-driven methods. In this brief, we have undertaken a comparative study of these different simulation methods. For benchmarking the different simulation methods and platforms, we have used a cerebellar-inspired neural-network model consisting of a very dense granular layer and a Purkinje layer with a smaller number of cells (according to biological ratios). Thus, this cerebellar-like network includes a dense diverging neural layer (increasing the dimensionality of its internal representation and sparse coding) and a converging neural layer (integration) similar to many other biologically inspired and also artificial neural networks.

A model for straight and helical solar jets: II. Parametric study of the plasma beta.

PubMed

Pariat, E; Dalmasse, K; DeVore, C R; Antiochos, S K; Karpen, J T

2016-12-01

Jets are dynamic, impulsive, well-collimated plasma events that develop at many different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Jets are believed to be induced by magnetic reconnection, a process central to many astrophysical phenomena. Within the solar atmosphere, jet-like events develop in many different environments, e.g., in the vicinity of active regions as well as in coronal holes, and at various scales, from small photospheric spicules to large coronal jets. In all these events, signatures of helical structure and/or twisting/rotating motions are regularly observed. The present study aims to establish that a single model can generally reproduce the observed properties of these jet-like events. In this study, using our state-of-the-art numerical solver ARMS, we present a parametric study of a numerical tridimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of solar jet-like events. Within the MHD paradigm, we study the impact of varying the atmospheric plasma β on the generation and properties of solar-like jets. The parametric study validates our model of jets for plasma β ranging from 10 -3 to 1, typical of the different layers and magnetic environments of the solar atmosphere. Our model of jets can robustly explain the generation of helical solar jet-like events at various β ≤ 1. This study introduces the new original result that the plasma β modifies the morphology of the helical jet, explaining the different observed shapes of jets at different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Our results allow us to understand the energisation, triggering, and driving processes of jet-like events. Our model allows us to make predictions of the impulsiveness and energetics of jets as determined by the surrounding environment, as well as the morphological properties of the resulting jets.

Impact of Deforestation and Recovery on Streamflow Recession Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krapu, C.; Kumar, M.

2016-12-01

Deforestation is known to influence streamflow and baseflow in particular in sub-humid environments. Baseflow contributions to the recession limb of a flood hydrograph convey information about subsurface stores from which trees also draw water. Recent works based on the assumptions outlined by Brutsaert and Nieber (1977) have proposed analyzing streamflow recession curves on a per-event basis. In this framework, each event's recession curve is governed by a power law relation with per-event scale and shape coefficients. As streamflow recession depends in part upon evapotranspiration demand from trees, these coefficients are hypothesized to contain useful information about catchment vegetation. Analysis was conducted of 13 small experimental catchments in the eastern United States with known forest treatment histories to determine whether or not streamflow recession behavior as observed from daily discharge records could serve as an indicator of deforestation in the drainage basin. Power-law scale coefficients were calculated for each major stormflow event at each test site and a statistical comparison of distribution of fitted coefficients was made between pre-treatment and post-treatment events as well as between pre-treatment and post-recovery events. A second method using these fitted coefficients in conjunction with Gaussian process regression was employed to track the change in the scale coefficient in the 13 catchments described previously as well as two medium-sized catchments in the North Carolina portion of the American Piedmont which did not have extensive records of forest cover. A linear trend analysis of precipitation was performed to determine whether nonstationarity in rainfall could be a confounding cause of changes in event scale coefficients. These results show a statistically significant difference in scale coefficient values in 5/8 treatment catchments and 0/5 control catchments. This suggests that lesser alterations to forest cover may not be detectable but that this method is robust against changes in precipitation. Additionally, we found clear evidence that forest regrowth in the Piedmont sites continued from 1940-1970. As a proof-of-concept, this work suggests that major alterations to forest cover can be inferred from daily data of stream discharge.

Detecting the Reconnection Electron Diffusion Regions in Magnetospheric MultiScale mission high resolution data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimoda, E.; Eriksson, S.; Ahmadi, N.; Ergun, R.; Wilder, F. D.; Goodrich, K.

2017-12-01

The Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) mission resolves the small-scale structure of the Reconnection Electron Diffusion Regions (EDRs) using four spacecraft. We have surveyed two years of MMS data to find the candidates for the EDRs. We searched all the high-resolution segments when Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI) instrument was on. The search criteria are based on measuring the dissipation rate, agyrotropy, a reversal in jet velocity and magnetic field. Once these events were found for MMS1 data, the burst period for the other spacecraft was analyzed. We present our results of the best possible EDR candidates.

Using MHD Models for Context for Multispacecraft Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Webster, J.; Daou, A.; Welling, D. T.; Giles, B. L.; Pollock, C.

2016-12-01

The use of global MHD models such as BATS-R-US to provide context to data from widely spaced multispacecraft mission platforms is gaining in popularity and in effectiveness. Examples are shown, primarily from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) program compared to BATS-R-US. We present several examples of large-scale magnetospheric configuration changes such as tail dipolarization events and reconfigurations after a sector boundary crossing which are made much more easily understood by placing the spacecraft in the model fields. In general, the models can reproduce the large-scale changes observed by the various spacecraft but sometimes miss small-scale or rapid time changes.

Large-Scale Gene Relocations following an Ancient Genome Triplication Associated with the Diversification of Core Eudicots.

PubMed

Wang, Yupeng; Ficklin, Stephen P; Wang, Xiyin; Feltus, F Alex; Paterson, Andrew H

2016-01-01

Different modes of gene duplication including whole-genome duplication (WGD), and tandem, proximal and dispersed duplications are widespread in angiosperm genomes. Small-scale, stochastic gene relocations and transposed gene duplications are widely accepted to be the primary mechanisms for the creation of dispersed duplicates. However, here we show that most surviving ancient dispersed duplicates in core eudicots originated from large-scale gene relocations within a narrow window of time following a genome triplication (γ) event that occurred in the stem lineage of core eudicots. We name these surviving ancient dispersed duplicates as relocated γ duplicates. In Arabidopsis thaliana, relocated γ, WGD and single-gene duplicates have distinct features with regard to gene functions, essentiality, and protein interactions. Relative to γ duplicates, relocated γ duplicates have higher non-synonymous substitution rates, but comparable levels of expression and regulation divergence. Thus, relocated γ duplicates should be distinguished from WGD and single-gene duplicates for evolutionary investigations. Our results suggest large-scale gene relocations following the γ event were associated with the diversification of core eudicots.

Large-Scale Gene Relocations following an Ancient Genome Triplication Associated with the Diversification of Core Eudicots

PubMed Central

Wang, Yupeng; Ficklin, Stephen P.; Wang, Xiyin; Feltus, F. Alex; Paterson, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Different modes of gene duplication including whole-genome duplication (WGD), and tandem, proximal and dispersed duplications are widespread in angiosperm genomes. Small-scale, stochastic gene relocations and transposed gene duplications are widely accepted to be the primary mechanisms for the creation of dispersed duplicates. However, here we show that most surviving ancient dispersed duplicates in core eudicots originated from large-scale gene relocations within a narrow window of time following a genome triplication (γ) event that occurred in the stem lineage of core eudicots. We name these surviving ancient dispersed duplicates as relocated γ duplicates. In Arabidopsis thaliana, relocated γ, WGD and single-gene duplicates have distinct features with regard to gene functions, essentiality, and protein interactions. Relative to γ duplicates, relocated γ duplicates have higher non-synonymous substitution rates, but comparable levels of expression and regulation divergence. Thus, relocated γ duplicates should be distinguished from WGD and single-gene duplicates for evolutionary investigations. Our results suggest large-scale gene relocations following the γ event were associated with the diversification of core eudicots. PMID:27195960

Studies of small-scale plasma inhomogeneities in the cusp ionosphere using sounding rocket data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernyshov, Alexander A.; Spicher, Andres; Ilyasov, Askar A.; Miloch, Wojciech J.; Clausen, Lasse B. N.; Saito, Yoshifumi; Jin, Yaqi; Moen, Jøran I.

2018-04-01

Microprocesses associated with plasma inhomogeneities are studied on the basis of data from the Investigation of Cusp Irregularities (ICI-3) sounding rocket. The ICI-3 rocket is devoted to investigating a reverse flow event in the cusp F region ionosphere. By numerical stability analysis, it is demonstrated that inhomogeneous-energy-density-driven (IEDD) instability can be a mechanism for the excitation of small-scale plasma inhomogeneities. The Local Intermittency Measure (LIM) method also applied the rocket data to analyze irregular structures of the electric field during rocket flight in the cusp. A qualitative agreement between high values of the growth rates of the IEDD instability and the regions with enhanced LIM is observed. This suggests that IEDD instability is connected to turbulent non-Gaussian processes.

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon.

PubMed

Brondizio, Eduardo S; Moran, Emilio F

2008-05-27

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.

Interplay of soft and perturbative correlations in multiparton interactions at central rapidities

DOE PAGES

Blok, B.; Strikman, M.

2017-06-22

We study the role of soft/nonperturbative correlations in the multi parton interactions in the central kinematics relevant for double parton scattering (DPS) and underlying event (UE) measurements at ATLAS and CMS. We show that the effect of soft correlations is negligible for DPS regime (typical transverse momenta larger than 10–20 GeV), but may be important for UE (several GeV scale). The characteristic scale where soft correlations become important increases with decrease of x (energy increase) leading to approximately constant σ eff at small x.

Interplay of soft and perturbative correlations in multiparton interactions at central rapidities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blok, B.; Strikman, M.

We study the role of soft/nonperturbative correlations in the multi parton interactions in the central kinematics relevant for double parton scattering (DPS) and underlying event (UE) measurements at ATLAS and CMS. We show that the effect of soft correlations is negligible for DPS regime (typical transverse momenta larger than 10–20 GeV), but may be important for UE (several GeV scale). The characteristic scale where soft correlations become important increases with decrease of x (energy increase) leading to approximately constant σ eff at small x.

Measurement of Neutrino-Induced Coherent Pion Production and the Diffractive Background in MINERvA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Alicia; Minerva Collaboration

2015-04-01

Neutrino-induced coherent charged pion production is a unique neutrino-nucleus scattering process in which a muon and pion are produced while the nucleus is left in its ground state. The MINERvA experiment has made a model-independent differential cross section measurement of this process on carbon by selecting events with a muon and a pion, no evidence of nuclear break-up, and small momentum transfer to the nucleus | t | . A similar process which is a background to the measurement on carbon is diffractive pion production off the free protons in MINERvA's scintillator. This process is not modeled in the neutrino event generator GENIE. At low | t | these events have a similar final state to the aforementioned process. A study to quantify this diffractive event contribution to the background is done by emulating these diffractive events by reweighting all other GENIE-generated background events to the predicted | t | distribution of diffractive events, and then scaling to the diffractive cross section.

The statistical properties of vortex flows in the solar atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedemeyer, Sven; Kato, Yoshiaki; Steiner, Oskar

2015-08-01

Rotating magnetic field structures associated with vortex flows on the Sun, also known as “magnetic tornadoes”, may serve as waveguides for MHD waves and transport mass and energy upwards through the atmosphere. Magnetic tornadoes may therefore potentially contribute to the heating of the upper atmospheric layers in quiet Sun regions.Magnetic tornadoes are observed over a large range of spatial and temporal scales in different layers in quiet Sun regions. However, their statistical properties such as size, lifetime, and rotation speed are not well understood yet because observations of these small-scale events are technically challenging and limited by the spatial and temporal resolution of current instruments. Better statistics based on a combination of high-resolution observations and state-of-the-art numerical simulations is the key to a reliable estimate of the energy input in the lower layers and of the energy deposition in the upper layers. For this purpose, we have developed a fast and reliable tool for the determination and visualization of the flow field in (observed) image sequences. This technique, which combines local correlation tracking (LCT) and line integral convolution (LIC), facilitates the detection and study of dynamic events on small scales, such as propagating waves. Here, we present statistical properties of vortex flows in different layers of the solar atmosphere and try to give realistic estimates of the energy flux which is potentially available for heating of the upper solar atmosphere

Detecting cm-scale hot spot over 24-km-long single-mode fiber by using differential pulse pair BOTDA based on double-peak spectrum.

PubMed

Diakaridia, Sanogo; Pan, Yue; Xu, Pengbai; Zhou, Dengwang; Wang, Benzhang; Teng, Lei; Lu, Zhiwei; Ba, Dexin; Dong, Yongkang

2017-07-24

In distributed Brillouin optical fiber sensor when the length of the perturbation to be detected is much smaller than the spatial resolution that is defined by the pulse width, the measured Brillouin gain spectrum (BGS) experiences two or multiple peaks. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a technique using differential pulse pair Brillouin optical time-domain analysis (DPP-BOTDA) based on double-peak BGS to enhance small-scale events detection capability, where two types of single mode fiber (main fiber and secondary fiber) with 116 MHz Brillouin frequency shift (BFS) difference have been used. We have realized detection of a 5-cm hot spot at the far end of 24-km single mode fiber by employing a 50-cm spatial resolution DPP-BOTDA with only 1GS/s sampling rate (corresponding to 10 cm/point). The BFS at the far end of 24-km sensing fiber has been measured with 0.54 MHz standard deviation which corresponds to a 0.5°C temperature accuracy. This technique is simple and cost effective because it is implemented using the similar experimental setup of the standard BOTDA, however, it should be noted that the consecutive small-scale events have to be separated by a minimum length corresponding to the spatial resolution defined by the pulse width difference.

Scale-dependency of effective hydraulic conductivity on fire-affected hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Nyman, Petter; Noske, Philip J.; Cawson, Jane G.; Oono, Akiko; Sheridan, Gary J.

2016-07-01

Effective hydraulic conductivity (Ke) for Hortonian overland flow modeling has been defined as a function of rainfall intensity and runon infiltration assuming a distribution of saturated hydraulic conductivities (Ks). But surface boundary condition during infiltration and its interactions with the distribution of Ks are not well represented in models. As a result, the mean value of the Ks distribution (KS¯), which is the central parameter for Ke, varies between scales. Here we quantify this discrepancy with a large infiltration data set comprising four different methods and scales from fire-affected hillslopes in SE Australia using a relatively simple yet widely used conceptual model of Ke. Ponded disk (0.002 m2) and ring infiltrometers (0.07 m2) were used at the small scales and rainfall simulations (3 m2) and small catchments (ca 3000 m2) at the larger scales. We compared KS¯ between methods measured at the same time and place. Disk and ring infiltrometer measurements had on average 4.8 times higher values of KS¯ than rainfall simulations and catchment-scale estimates. Furthermore, the distribution of Ks was not clearly log-normal and scale-independent, as supposed in the conceptual model. In our interpretation, water repellency and preferential flow paths increase the variance of the measured distribution of Ks and bias ponding toward areas of very low Ks during rainfall simulations and small catchment runoff events while areas with high preferential flow capacity remain water supply-limited more than the conceptual model of Ke predicts. The study highlights problems in the current theory of scaling runoff generation.

Small-scale deflagration cylinder test with velocimetry wall-motion diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooks, Daniel E; Hill, Larry G; Pierce, Timothy H

Predicting the likelihood and effects of outcomes resultant from thermal initiation of explosives remains a significant challenge. For certain explosive formulations, the general outcome can be broadly predicted given knowledge of certain conditions. However, there remain unexplained violent events, and increased statistical understanding of outcomes as a function of many variables, or 'violence categorization,' is needed. Additionally, the development of an equation of state equivalent for deflagration would be very useful in predicting possible detailed event consequences using traditional hydrodynamic detonation moders. For violence categorization, it is desirable that testing be efficient, such that it is possible to statistically definemore » outcomes reliant on the processes of initiation of deflagration, steady state deflagration, and deflagration to detonation transitions. If the test simultaneously acquires information to inform models of violent deflagration events, overall predictive capabilities for event likelihood and consequence might improve remarkably. In this paper we describe an economical scaled deflagration cylinder test. The cyclotetramethylene tetranitramine (HMX) based explosive formu1lation PBX 9501 was tested using different temperature profiles in a thick-walled copper cylindrical confiner. This test is a scaled version of a recently demonstrated deflagration cylinder test, and is similar to several other thermal explosion tests. The primary difference is the passive velocimetry diagnostic, which enables measurement of confinement vessel wall velocities at failure, regardless of the timing and location of ignition.« less

Plankton biomass and larval fish abundance prior to and during the El Niño period of 1997 1998 along the central Pacific coast of México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

C. Franco-Gordo; Godínez-Domínguez, E.; Filonov, A. E.; Tereshchenko, I. E.; Freire, J.

2004-11-01

The temporal and spatial distributions of zooplankton biomass and larval fish recorded during 27 months (December 1995-December 1998) off the Pacific coast of central México are analyzed. A total of 316 samples were obtained by surface (from 40-68 to 0 m) oblique hauls at 12 sampling sites using a Bongo net. Two well-defined periods were observed: a pre-ENSO period (December 1995-march 1997) and an ENSO event (July 1997-September 1998) characterized by impoverishment of the pelagic habitat. The highest biomass concentrations occurred at coastal stations during the pre-ENSO period. During the El Niño period no spatial patterns were found in coastal waters. The months with highest biomass were those in which the lowest sea surface temperature (SST) occurred (January-May), and this pattern was also observed during the ENSO period. A typical, although attenuated, seasonal environmental pattern with enhanced phytoplankton (diatoms and dinoflagellates) was prevalent during the El Niño event in nearshore waters. During the El Niño period the phytoplankton was mainly small diatoms (microphytoplankton), while dinoflagellates were practically absent. The most parsimonious generalized linear models explaining spatial and temporal distribution of larval fish species included the ENSO index (MEI), upwelling index (UI) and distance to the coast. The environmental variability defined on an interannual time-scale by the ENSO event and the seasonal hydroclimatic pattern defined by the UI (intra-annual-scale) controlled the ecosystem productivity patterns. The small-scale distribution patterns (defined by a cross-shore gradient) of plankton were related to the hydroclimatic seasonality and modulated by interannual anomalies.

Impacts of rural land-use on overland flow and sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. L.; Jackson, B. M.; Norton, K. P.

2013-12-01

The loss of fertile topsoil over time, due to erosive processes, could have a major impact on New Zealand's economy as well as being devastating to individual land owners. Improved management of land use is needed to provide protection of soil from erosion by overland flow and aeolian processes. Effects of soil erosion and sedimentation result in an annual nationwide cost of NZ$123 million. Many previous New Zealand studies have focused on large scale soil movement from land sliding and gully erosion, including identifying risk areas. However, long term small scale erosion and degradation has been largely overlooked in the literature. Although small scale soil erosion is less apparent than mass movement, cumulative small scale soil loss over many years may have a significant impact for future land productivity. One approach to assessing the role of soil degradation is through the application of landscape models. Due to the time consuming collection of data and limited scales over which data can be collected, many models created are unique to a particular land type, land use or locality. Collection of additional datasets can broaden the use of such models by informing model representation and enhancing parameterisation. The Land Use Capability Index (LUCI), developed by Jackson et al (2013) is an example of a model that will benefit from additional data sets. LUCI is a multi-criteria GIS tool, designed to inform land management decisions by identifying areas of potential change, based on land characteristics and land use options. LUCI topographically routes overland flow and sediment using existing land characteristic maps and additionally incorporating sub-field scale data. The model then has the ability to utilise these data to enhance prediction at landscape scale. This study focuses on the influence of land use on small scale sediment transport and enhancing process representation and parameterisation to improve predictive ability of models, such as LUCI. Data are currently being collected in a small catchment at the foothills of the Tararua ranges, lower North Island of New Zealand. Gurlach traps are utilised in a step like array on a number of hillslopes to provide a comprehensive dataset of overland flow and sediment volume for different magnitude rainfall events. ArcGIS is used to calculate a contributing area to each trap. The study provides quantitative data linking overland flow to event magnitude for the rural land uses of pasture versus regenerating native forest at multiple slope angles. These data along with measured soil depth/slope relationships and stream monitoring data are used to inform process representation and parameterisation of LUCI at hillslope scale. LUCI is then used to explore implications at landscape scale. The data and modelling are intended to provide information to help in long-term land management decisions. Jackson, B., Pagella, T., Sinclair, F., Orellana, B., Henshaw, A., Reynolds, B., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H., and Eycott, A. 2013. Polyscape: A GIS mapping framework providing efficient and spatially explicit landscape-scale valuation of multiple ecosystem services. Landscape and Urban Planning, 112(0): 74-88

Landscape management of fire and grazing regimes alters the fine-scale habitat utilisation by feral cats.

PubMed

McGregor, Hugh W; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E; Johnson, Christopher N

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores.

Landscape Management of Fire and Grazing Regimes Alters the Fine-Scale Habitat Utilisation by Feral Cats

PubMed Central

McGregor, Hugh W.; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores. PMID:25329902

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

Child Readers and the Worlds of the Picture Book

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Adela; Laugharne, Janet; Maagerø, Eva; Tønnessen, Elise Seip

2016-01-01

Children as readers of picture books and the ways they respond to, and make meaning from, such texts are the focus of this article, which reports on a small-scale study undertaken in Norway and Wales, UK. The theoretical framing of the research draws on concepts of the multimodal ensemble in picture books and of the reading event as part of a…

Livestock First Reached Southern Africa in Two Separate Events.

PubMed

Sadr, Karim

2015-01-01

After several decades of research on the subject, we now know when the first livestock reached southern Africa but the question of how they got there remains a contentious topic. Debate centres on whether they were brought with a large migration of Khoe-speakers who originated from East Africa; or whether the livestock were traded down-the-line among hunter-gatherer communities; or indeed whether there was a long history of diverse small scale population movements in this part of the world, one or more of which 'infiltrated' livestock into southern Africa. A new analysis of the distribution of stone toolkits from a sizeable sample of sub-equatorial African Later Stone Age sites, coupled with existing knowledge of the distribution of the earliest livestock remains and ceramics vessels, has allowed us to isolate two separate infiltration events that brought the first livestock into southern Africa just over 2000 years ago; one infiltration was along the Atlantic seaboard and another entered the middle reaches of the Limpopo River Basin. These findings agree well with the latest results of genetic research which together indicate that multiple, small-scale infiltrations probably were responsible for bringing the first livestock into southern Africa.

A planktonic diatom displays genetic structure over small spatial scales.

PubMed

Sefbom, Josefin; Kremp, Anke; Rengefors, Karin; Jonsson, Per R; Sjöqvist, Conny; Godhe, Anna

2018-04-03

Marine planktonic microalgae have potentially global dispersal, yet reduced gene flow has been confirmed repeatedly for several species. Over larger distances (>200 km) geographic isolation and restricted oceanographic connectivity have been recognized as instrumental in driving population divergence. Here we investigated whether similar patterns, that is, structured populations governed by geographic isolation and/or oceanographic connectivity, can be observed at smaller (6-152 km) geographic scales. To test this we established 425 clonal cultures of the planktonic diatom Skeletonema marinoi collected from 11 locations in the Archipelago Sea (northern Baltic Sea). The region is characterized by a complex topography, entailing several mixing regions of which four were included in the sampling area. Using eight microsatellite markers and conventional F-statistics, significant genetic differentiation was observed between several sites. Moreover, Bayesian cluster analysis revealed the co-occurrence of two genetic groups spread throughout the area. However, geographic isolation and oceanographic connectivity could not explain the genetic patterns observed. Our data reveal hierarchical genetic structuring whereby despite high dispersal potential, significantly diverged populations have developed over small spatial scales. Our results suggest that biological characteristics and historical events may be more important in generating barriers to gene flow than physical barriers at small spatial scales. © 2018 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events

PubMed Central

Soissons, Laura M.; Haanstra, Eeke P.; van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Asmus, Ragnhild; Auby, Isabelle; Barillé, Laurent; Brun, Fernando G.; Cardoso, Patricia G.; Desroy, Nicolas; Fournier, Jerome; Ganthy, Florian; Garmendia, Joxe-Mikel; Godet, Laurent; Grilo, Tiago F.; Kadel, Petra; Ondiviela, Barbara; Peralta, Gloria; Puente, Araceli; Recio, Maria; Rigouin, Loic; Valle, Mireia; Herman, Peter M. J.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2018-01-01

Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i) seasonal fluctuations, (ii) short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii) small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon-based regrowth after winter. Therefore, processes affecting those reserves might affect seagrass resilience. With increasing human pressure on coastal systems, short- and small-scale stress events are expected to become more frequent, threatening the resilience of seagrass ecosystems, particularly at higher latitudes, where populations tend to have an annual cycle highly dependent on their storage capacity. PMID:29449859

Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events.

PubMed

Soissons, Laura M; Haanstra, Eeke P; van Katwijk, Marieke M; Asmus, Ragnhild; Auby, Isabelle; Barillé, Laurent; Brun, Fernando G; Cardoso, Patricia G; Desroy, Nicolas; Fournier, Jerome; Ganthy, Florian; Garmendia, Joxe-Mikel; Godet, Laurent; Grilo, Tiago F; Kadel, Petra; Ondiviela, Barbara; Peralta, Gloria; Puente, Araceli; Recio, Maria; Rigouin, Loic; Valle, Mireia; Herman, Peter M J; Bouma, Tjeerd J

2018-01-01

Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i) seasonal fluctuations, (ii) short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii) small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon-based regrowth after winter. Therefore, processes affecting those reserves might affect seagrass resilience. With increasing human pressure on coastal systems, short- and small-scale stress events are expected to become more frequent, threatening the resilience of seagrass ecosystems, particularly at higher latitudes, where populations tend to have an annual cycle highly dependent on their storage capacity.

Response of coral assemblages to thermal stress: are bleaching intensity and spatial patterns consistent between events?

PubMed

Penin, Lucie; Vidal-Dupiol, Jeremie; Adjeroud, Mehdi

2013-06-01

Mass bleaching events resulting in coral mortality are among the greatest threats to coral reefs, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. Achieving a better understanding of the consistency of the response of coral assemblages to thermal stress, both spatially and temporally, is essential to determine which reefs are more able to tolerate climate change. We compared variations in spatial and taxonomic patterns between two bleaching events at the scale of an island (Moorea Island, French Polynesia). Despite similar thermal stress and light conditions, bleaching intensity was significantly lower in 2007 (approximately 37 % of colonies showed signs of bleaching) than in 2002, when 55 % of the colonies bleached. Variations in the spatial patterns of bleaching intensity were consistent between the two events. Among nine sampling stations at three locations and three depths, the stations at which the bleaching response was lowest in 2002 were those that showed the lowest levels of bleaching in 2007. The taxonomic patterns of susceptibility to bleaching were also consistent between the two events. These findings have important implications for conservation because they indicate that corals are capable of acclimatization and/or adaptation and that, even at small spatial scales, some areas are consistently more susceptible to bleaching than others.

An Assessment of Stream Confluence Flow Dynamics using Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry Captured from Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Q. W.; Rhoads, B. L.

2017-12-01

The merging of rivers at confluences results in complex three-dimensional flow patterns that influence sediment transport, bed morphology, downstream mixing, and physical habitat conditions. The capacity to characterize comprehensively flow at confluences using traditional sensors, such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters and profiles, is limited by the restricted spatial resolution of these sensors and difficulties in measuring velocities simultaneously at many locations within a confluence. This study assesses two-dimensional surficial patterns of flow structure at a small stream confluence in Illinois, USA, using large scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) derived from videos captured by unmanned aerial systems (UAS). The method captures surface velocity patterns at high spatial and temporal resolution over multiple scales, ranging from the entire confluence to details of flow within the confluence mixing interface. Flow patterns at high momentum ratio are compared to flow patterns when the two incoming flows have nearly equal momentum flux. Mean surface flow patterns during the two types of events provide details on mean patterns of surface flow in different hydrodynamic regions of the confluence and on changes in these patterns with changing momentum flux ratio. LSPIV data derived from the highest resolution imagery also reveal general characteristics of large-scale vortices that form along the shear layer between the flows during the high-momentum ratio event. The results indicate that the use of LSPIV and UAS is well-suited for capturing in detail mean surface patterns of flow at small confluences, but that characterization of evolving turbulent structures is limited by scale considerations related to structure size, image resolution, and camera instability. Complementary methods, including camera platforms mounted at fixed positions close to the water surface, provide opportunities to accurately characterize evolving turbulent flow structures in confluences.

Spectral and Imaging Observations of a Current Sheet Region in a Small-scale Magnetic Reconnection Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Zhike; Yan, Xiaoli; Yang, Liheng; Wang, Jincheng; Feng, Song; Li, Qiaoling; Ji, Kaifan; Zhao, Li

2018-05-01

We report a possible current sheet region associated with a small-scale magnetic reconnection event by using the spectral and imaging observations of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and the magnetograms obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on 2016 August 08. The length and width of the current sheet region are estimated to be from 1.4 ± 0.1 Mm to 3.0 ± 0.3 Mm and from 0.34 ± 0.01 Mm to 0.64 ± 0.09 Mm, respectively. The evolutions of the length of the current sheet region are positively correlated with that of the width. These measurements are among the smallest reported. When the IRIS slit scans the current sheet region, the spectroscopic observations show that the Si IV line is broadened in the current sheet region and the plasma has a blueshifted feature at the middle and a redshifted feature at the ends of the current sheet region. The maximum measured blueshifted and redshifted Doppler velocities are ‑20.8 ± 0.9 and 34.1 ± 0.4 km s‑1, respectively. Additionally, the electron number densities of the plasma in the current sheet region are computed to be around 1011 cm‑3 based on the spectrums of the two O IV lines. The emergence, movement, and cancellation of a small sunspot with negative polarity are observed during the formation and shift of the current sheet region. We suggest that the occurrence and evolution of the magnetic reconnection are driven by the movement of the small sunspot in the photosphere.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Hydrologic response to stormwater control measures in urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Colin D.; McMillan, Sara K.; Clinton, Sandra M.; Jefferson, Anne J.

2016-10-01

Stormwater control measures (SCMs) are designed to mitigate deleterious effects of urbanization on river networks, but our ability to predict the cumulative effect of multiple SCMs at watershed scales is limited. The most widely used metric to quantify impacts of urban development, total imperviousness (TI), does not contain information about the extent of stormwater control. We analyzed the discharge records of 16 urban watersheds in Charlotte, NC spanning a range of TI (4.1-54%) and area mitigated with SCMs (1.3-89%). We then tested multiple watershed metrics that quantify the degree of urban impact and SCM mitigation to determine which best predicted hydrologic response across sites. At the event time scale, linear models showed TI to be the best predictor of both peak unit discharge and rainfall-runoff ratios across a range of storm sizes. TI was also a strong driver of both a watershed's capacity to buffer small (e.g., 1-10 mm) rain events, and the relationship between peak discharge and precipitation once that buffering capacity is exceeded. Metrics containing information about SCMs did not appear as primary predictors of event hydrologic response, suggesting that the level of SCM mitigation in many urban watersheds is insufficient to influence hydrologic response. Over annual timescales, impervious surfaces unmitigated by SCMs and tree coverage were best correlated with streamflow flashiness and water yield, respectively. The shift in controls from the event scale to the annual scale has important implications for water resource management, suggesting that overall limitation of watershed imperviousness rather than partial mitigation by SCMs may be necessary to alleviate the hydrologic impacts of urbanization.

SEISMIC SOURCE SCALING AND DISCRIMINATION IN DIVERSE TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R E; Mayeda, K; Walter, W R

2007-07-10

The objectives of this study are to improve low-magnitude regional seismic discrimination by performing a thorough investigation of earthquake source scaling using diverse, high-quality datasets from varied tectonic regions. Local-to-regional high-frequency discrimination requires an estimate of how earthquakes scale with size. Walter and Taylor (2002) developed the MDAC (Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Corrections) method to empirically account for these effects through regional calibration. The accuracy of these corrections has a direct impact on our ability to identify clandestine explosions in the broad regional areas characterized by low seismicity. Unfortunately our knowledge of source scaling at small magnitudes (i.e., m{sub b}more » < {approx}4.0) is poorly resolved. It is not clear whether different studies obtain contradictory results because they analyze different earthquakes, or because they use different methods. Even in regions that are well studied, such as test sites or areas of high seismicity, we still rely on empirical scaling relations derived from studies taken from half-way around the world at inter-plate regions. We investigate earthquake sources and scaling from different tectonic settings, comparing direct and coda wave analysis methods. We begin by developing and improving the two different methods, and then in future years we will apply them both to each set of earthquakes. Analysis of locally recorded, direct waves from events is intuitively the simplest way of obtaining accurate source parameters, as these waves have been least affected by travel through the earth. But there are only a limited number of earthquakes that are recorded locally, by sufficient stations to give good azimuthal coverage, and have very closely located smaller earthquakes that can be used as an empirical Green's function (EGF) to remove path effects. In contrast, coda waves average radiation from all directions so single-station records should be adequate, and previous work suggests that the requirements for the EGF event are much less stringent. We can study more earthquakes using the coda-wave methods, while using direct wave methods for the best recorded subset of events so as to investigate any differences between the results of the two approaches. Finding 'perfect' EGF events for direct wave analysis is difficult, as is ascertaining the quality of a particular EGF event. We develop a multi-taper method to obtain time-domain source-time-functions by frequency division. If an earthquake and EGF event pair are able to produce a clear, time-domain source pulse then we accept the EGF event. We then model the spectral (amplitude) ratio to determine source parameters from both direct P and S waves. We use the well-recorded sequence of aftershocks of the M5 Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake to test the method and also to obtain some of the first accurate source parameters for small earthquakes in eastern North America. We find that the stress drops are high, confirming previous work suggesting that intraplate continental earthquakes have higher stress drops than events at plate boundaries. We simplify and improve the coda wave analysis method by calculating spectral ratios between different sized earthquakes. We first compare spectral ratio performance between local and near-regional S and coda waves in the San Francisco Bay region for moderate-sized events. The average spectral ratio standard deviations using coda are {approx}0.05 to 0.12, roughly a factor of 3 smaller than direct S-waves for 0.2 < f < 15.0 Hz. Also, direct wave analysis requires collocated pairs of earthquakes whereas the event-pairs (Green's function and target events) can be separated by {approx}25 km for coda amplitudes without any appreciable degradation. We then apply coda spectral ratio method to the 1999 Hector Mine mainshock (M{sub w} 7.0, Mojave Desert) and its larger aftershocks. We observe a clear departure from self-similarity, consistent with previous studies using similar regional datasets.« less

Experimental Quantification of Pore-Scale Flow Phenomena in 2D Heterogeneous Porous Micromodels: Multiphase Flow Towards Coupled Solid-Liquid Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kazemifar, F.; Blois, G.; Christensen, K. T.

2017-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 within saline aquifers is a viable technology for reducing CO2 emissions. Central to this goal is accurately predicting both the fidelity of candidate sites pre-injection of CO2 and its post-injection migration. Moreover, local fluid pressure buildup may cause activation of small pre-existing unidentified faults, leading to micro-seismic events, which could prove disastrous for societal acceptance of CCS, and possibly compromise seal integrity. Recent evidence shows that large-scale events are coupled with pore-scale phenomena, which necessitates the representation of pore-scale stress, strain, and multiphase flow processes in large-scale modeling. To this end, the pore-scale flow of water and liquid/supercritical CO2 is investigated under reservoir-relevant conditions, over a range of wettability conditions in 2D heterogeneous micromodels that reflect the complexity of a real sandstone. High-speed fluorescent microscopy, complemented by a fast differential pressure transmitter, allows for simultaneous measurement of the flow field within and the instantaneous pressure drop across the micromodels. A flexible micromodel is also designed and fabricated, to be used in conjunction with the micro-PIV technique, enabling the quantification of coupled solid-liquid interactions.

Two Point Autocorrelation Analysis of Auger Highest Energy Events Backtracked in Galactic Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Yevgeniy

2009-10-01

Searches for sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays traditionally have included looking for clusters of event arrival directions on the sky. The smallest cluster is a pair of events falling within some angular window. In contrast to the standard two point (2-pt) autocorrelation analysis, this work takes into account influence of the galactic magnetic field (GMF). The highest energy events, those above 50EeV, collected by the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory between January 1, 2004 and May 31, 2009 are used in the analysis. Having assumed protons as primaries, events are backtracked through BSS/S, BSS/A, ASS/S and ASS/A versions of Harari-Mollerach-Roulet (HMR) model of the GMF. For each version of the model, a 2-pt autocorrelation analysis is applied to the backtracked events and to 105 isotropic Monte Carlo realizations weighted by the Auger exposure. Scans in energy, separation angular window and different model parameters reveal clustering at different angular scales. Small angle clustering at 2-3 deg is particularly interesting and it is compared between different field scenarios. The strength of the autocorrelation signal at those angular scales differs between BSS and ASS versions of the HMR model. The BSS versions of the model tend to defocus protons as they arrive to Earth whereas for the ASS, in contrary, it is more likely to focus them.

Design and Test of an Improved Crashworthiness Small Composite Airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terry, James E.; Hooper, Steven J.; Nicholson, Mark

2002-01-01

The purpose of this small business innovative research (SBIR) program was to evaluate the feasibility of developing small composite airplanes with improved crashworthiness. A combination of analysis and half scale component tests were used to develop an energy absorbing airframe. Four full scale crash tests were conducted at the NASA Impact Dynamics Research Facility, two on a hard surface and two onto soft soil, replicating earlier NASA tests of production general aviation airplanes. Several seat designs and restraint systems including both an air bag and load limiting shoulder harnesses were tested. Tests showed that occupant loads were within survivable limits with the improved structural design and the proper combination of seats and restraint systems. There was no loss of cabin volume during the events. The analysis method developed provided design guidance but time did not allow extending the analysis to soft soil impact. This project demonstrated that survivability improvements are possible with modest weight penalties. The design methods can be readily applied by airplane designers using the examples in this report.

Sparkling extreme-ultraviolet bright dots observed with Hi-C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Régnier, S.; Alexander, C. E.; Walsh, R. W.

Observing the Sun at high time and spatial scales is a step toward understanding the finest and fundamental scales of heating events in the solar corona. The high-resolution coronal (Hi-C) instrument has provided the highest spatial and temporal resolution images of the solar corona in the EUV wavelength range to date. Hi-C observed an active region on 2012 July 11 that exhibits several interesting features in the EUV line at 193 Å. One of them is the existence of short, small brightenings 'sparkling' at the edge of the active region; we call these EUV bright dots (EBDs). Individual EBDs havemore » a characteristic duration of 25 s with a characteristic length of 680 km. These brightenings are not fully resolved by the SDO/AIA instrument at the same wavelength; however, they can be identified with respect to the Hi-C location of the EBDs. In addition, EBDs are seen in other chromospheric/coronal channels of SDO/AIA, which suggests a temperature between 0.5 and 1.5 MK. Based on their frequency in the Hi-C time series, we define four different categories of EBDs: single peak, double peak, long duration, and bursty. Based on a potential field extrapolation from an SDO/HMI magnetogram, the EBDs appear at the footpoints of large-scale, trans-equatorial coronal loops. The Hi-C observations provide the first evidence of small-scale EUV heating events at the base of these coronal loops, which have a free magnetic energy of the order of 10{sup 26} erg.« less

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

1999-01-01

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

Rapid Passage of a Small-Scale Mantle Heterogeneity Through the Melting Regions of Kilauea and Mauna Loa Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietruszka, A. J.; Marske, J. P.; Weis, D.; Garcia, M. O.; Rhodes, J. M.

2006-12-01

There are few quantitative estimates for the size, shape, and distribution of small-scale compositional heterogeneities within the Hawaiian mantle plume. The chemistry of recent lavas from the two most active Hawaiian volcanoes, Kilauea and Mauna Loa, provide a snapshot of the heterogeneous structure of the plume beneath Hawaii. We present Pb and Sr isotope ratios of two suites of young prehistoric lavas from these volcanoes: (1) Kilauea lavas from AD 1000 to 1500, and (2) 14C-dated Mauna Loa flows from ~2,650- 140 years BP. Prior to this study, the Pb and Sr isotope ratios of lavas from these volcanoes were thought to be completely distinct (e.g., Abouchami et al., 2005). However, these prehistoric Kilauea and Mauna Loa lavas display a systematic isotopic fluctuation, and the Kilauea lavas (in particular) span the Pb and Sr isotopic divide that was previously thought to exist between these two volcanoes. For a brief period from AD 250 to 1500, the Pb and Sr isotope ratios of Kilauea and Mauna Loa lavas departed from values typical for each volcano's historical period, moved towards a common isotopic composition, and subsequently, returned to more typical values. This transient magmatic event was probably caused by the rapid passage of a small-scale compositional heterogeneity though the melting regions of these volcanoes. The heterogeneity is thought to be either a single body that extends between the summits of both Kilauea and Mauna Loa (~35 km long) or the ubiquitous plume matrix itself. The time scale of this event (centuries) is much shorter than previously noted for variations in the isotopic composition of Hawaiian lavas due to the upwelling of heterogeneities within the plume (thousands to tens of thousands of years; Blichert-Toft et al., 2003; Kurz et al., 2004). Calculations based on the duration of the isotopic excursion suggest a maximum thickness for the melting region (and thus, the heterogeneity) of only ~5-10 km.

Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2017-06-01

The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.

2017-12-01

The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

Are extreme events (statistically) special? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Naylor, M.; Greenhough, J.; Touati, S.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

2009-12-01

We address the generic problem of testing for scale-invariance in extreme events, i.e. are the biggest events in a population simply a scaled model of those of smaller size, or are they in some way different? Are large earthquakes for example ‘characteristic’, do they ‘know’ how big they will be before the event nucleates, or is the size of the event determined only in the avalanche-like process of rupture? In either case what are the implications for estimates of time-dependent seismic hazard? One way of testing for departures from scale invariance is to examine the frequency-size statistics, commonly used as a bench mark in a number of applications in Earth and Environmental sciences. Using frequency data however introduces a number of problems in data analysis. The inevitably small number of data points for extreme events and more generally the non-Gaussian statistical properties strongly affect the validity of prior assumptions about the nature of uncertainties in the data. The simple use of traditional least squares (still common in the literature) introduces an inherent bias to the best fit result. We show first that the sampled frequency in finite real and synthetic data sets (the latter based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model) converge to a central limit only very slowly due to temporal correlations in the data. A specific correction for temporal correlations enables an estimate of convergence properties to be mapped non-linearly on to a Gaussian one. Uncertainties closely follow a Poisson distribution of errors across the whole range of seismic moment for typical catalogue sizes. In this sense the confidence limits are scale-invariant. A systematic sample bias effect due to counting whole numbers in a finite catalogue makes a ‘characteristic’-looking type extreme event distribution a likely outcome of an underlying scale-invariant probability distribution. This highlights the tendency of ‘eyeball’ fits to unconsciously (but wrongly in this case) assume Gaussian errors. We develop methods to correct for these effects, and show that the current best fit maximum likelihood regression model for the global frequency-moment distribution in the digital era is a power law, i.e. mega-earthquakes continue to follow the Gutenberg-Richter trend of smaller earthquakes with no (as yet) observable cut-off or characteristic extreme event. The results may also have implications for the interpretation of other time-limited geophysical time series that exhibit power-law scaling.

Method for identifying subsurface fluid migration and drainage pathways in and among oil and gas reservoirs using 3-D and 4-D seismic imaging

DOEpatents

Anderson, R.N.; Boulanger, A.; Bagdonas, E.P.; Xu, L.; He, W.

1996-12-17

The invention utilizes 3-D and 4-D seismic surveys as a means of deriving information useful in petroleum exploration and reservoir management. The methods use both single seismic surveys (3-D) and multiple seismic surveys separated in time (4-D) of a region of interest to determine large scale migration pathways within sedimentary basins, and fine scale drainage structure and oil-water-gas regions within individual petroleum producing reservoirs. Such structure is identified using pattern recognition tools which define the regions of interest. The 4-D seismic data sets may be used for data completion for large scale structure where time intervals between surveys do not allow for dynamic evolution. The 4-D seismic data sets also may be used to find variations over time of small scale structure within individual reservoirs which may be used to identify petroleum drainage pathways, oil-water-gas regions and, hence, attractive drilling targets. After spatial orientation, and amplitude and frequency matching of the multiple seismic data sets, High Amplitude Event (HAE) regions consistent with the presence of petroleum are identified using seismic attribute analysis. High Amplitude Regions are grown and interconnected to establish plumbing networks on the large scale and reservoir structure on the small scale. Small scale variations over time between seismic surveys within individual reservoirs are identified and used to identify drainage patterns and bypassed petroleum to be recovered. The location of such drainage patterns and bypassed petroleum may be used to site wells. 22 figs.

Method for identifying subsurface fluid migration and drainage pathways in and among oil and gas reservoirs using 3-D and 4-D seismic imaging

DOEpatents

Anderson, Roger N.; Boulanger, Albert; Bagdonas, Edward P.; Xu, Liqing; He, Wei

1996-01-01

The invention utilizes 3-D and 4-D seismic surveys as a means of deriving information useful in petroleum exploration and reservoir management. The methods use both single seismic surveys (3-D) and multiple seismic surveys separated in time (4-D) of a region of interest to determine large scale migration pathways within sedimentary basins, and fine scale drainage structure and oil-water-gas regions within individual petroleum producing reservoirs. Such structure is identified using pattern recognition tools which define the regions of interest. The 4-D seismic data sets may be used for data completion for large scale structure where time intervals between surveys do not allow for dynamic evolution. The 4-D seismic data sets also may be used to find variations over time of small scale structure within individual reservoirs which may be used to identify petroleum drainage pathways, oil-water-gas regions and, hence, attractive drilling targets. After spatial orientation, and amplitude and frequency matching of the multiple seismic data sets, High Amplitude Event (HAE) regions consistent with the presence of petroleum are identified using seismic attribute analysis. High Amplitude Regions are grown and interconnected to establish plumbing networks on the large scale and reservoir structure on the small scale. Small scale variations over time between seismic surveys within individual reservoirs are identified and used to identify drainage patterns and bypassed petroleum to be recovered. The location of such drainage patterns and bypassed petroleum may be used to site wells.

Observations of premonitory acoustic emission and slip nucleation during a stick slip experiment in smooth faulted Westerly granite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, B.D.; Young, R.P.; Lockner, D.A.

2005-01-01

To investigate laboratory earthquakes, stick-slip events were induced on a saw-cut Westerly granite sample by triaxial loading at 150 MPa confining pressure. Acoustic emissions (AE) were monitored using an innovative continuous waveform recorder. The first motion of each stick slip was recorded as a large-amplitude AE signal. These events source locate onto the saw-cut fault plane, implying that they represent the nucleation sites of the dynamic failure stick-slip events. The precise location of nucleation varied between events and was probably controlled by heterogeneity of stress or surface conditions on the fault. The initial nucleation diameter of each dynamic instability was inferred to be less than 3 mm. A small number of AE were recorded prior to each macro slip event. For the second and third slip events, premonitory AE source mechanisms mimic the large scale fault plane geometry. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Tess A.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Winslow, Dustin M.

2013-04-01

Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration.

Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

2007-12-01

Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

Synoptic and Mesoscale Climatologies of Severe Local Storms for the American Midwest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, David Leslie

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with severe local storms (SELS) in the heart of the American Midwest. This region includes west-central Illinois, most of Indiana, the extreme western counties of Ohio, and a small part of northeastern Kentucky. The primary objectives of this study are to determine the surface and middle-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns and thermodynamic and kinematic environments associated with SELS event types (tornadoes, hail, severe straight -line winds), and to assess the degree to which the synoptic circulation patterns and meso-beta scale kinematic and thermodynamic climatology of the Midwest differ from that of the Great Plains. A secondary objective is to investigate the possible role that land-surface atmosphere interactions play in the spatial distribution of SELS. A new subjective synoptic typing scheme is developed and applied to determine the synoptic-scale circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of SELS event types. This scheme is based on a combination of surface and middle -tropospheric patterns. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are analyzed to determine meso-scale environments favorable for the development of SELS. Results indicate that key synoptic-scale circulation patterns, and specific ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are related to specific SELS event types. These circulation types and ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters may be used to help improve the medium-range forecasting of severe local storms. Results of the secondary objective reveal that the spatial distribution of SELS events is clustered within the study region, and most occur under a negative climate division-level soil moisture gradient; that is, a drier upwind division than the division in which the event occurs. Moreover, the spatial distribution of SELS events is compared against a map of soil types and vegetation. The resulting distribution depicts a visual correlation between the primary soil and vegetative boundaries and clusters of SELS. This supports the likely role of meso-scale land-surface-atmosphere interactions in severe weather development for humid lowlands of the Midwest United States.

High fluid pressure and triggered earthquakes in the enhanced geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terakawa, Toshiko; Miller, Stephen A.; Deichmann, Nicholas

2012-07-01

We analyzed 118 well-constrained focal mechanisms to estimate the pore fluid pressure field of the stimulated region during the fluid injection experiment in Basel, Switzerland. This technique, termed focal mechanism tomography (FMT), uses the orientations of slip planes within the prevailing regional stress field as an indicator of the fluid pressure along the plane at the time of slip. The maximum value and temporal change of excess pore fluid pressures are consistent with the known history of the wellhead pressure applied at the borehole. Elevated pore fluid pressures were concentrated within 500 m of the open hole section, which are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the induced microseismicity. Our results demonstrate that FMT is a robust approach, being validated at the meso-scale of the Basel stimulation experiment. We found average earthquake triggering excess pore fluid pressures of about 10 MPa above hydrostatic. Overpressured fluids induced many small events (M < 3) along faults unfavorably oriented relative to the tectonic stress pattern, while the larger events tended to occur along optimally oriented faults. This suggests that small-scale hydraulic networks, developed from the high pressure stimulation, interact to load (hydraulically isolated) high strength bridges that produce the larger events. The triggering pore fluid pressures are substantially higher than that predicted from a linear pressure diffusion process from the source boundary, and shows that the system is highly permeable along flow paths that allow fast pressure diffusion to the boundaries of the stimulated region.

The statistical analysis of energy release in small-scale coronal structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulyanov, Artyom; Kuzin, Sergey; Bogachev, Sergey

We present the results of statistical analysis of impulsive flare-like brightenings, which numerously occur in the quiet regions of solar corona. For our study, we utilized high-cadence observations performed with two EUV-telescopes - TESIS/Coronas-Photon and AIA/SDO. In total, we processed 6 sequences of images, registered throughout the period between 2009 and 2013, covering the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. Based on high-speed DEM estimation method, we developed a new technique to evaluate the main parameters of detected events (geometrical sizes, duration, temperature and thermal energy). We then obtained the statistical distributions of these parameters and examined their variations depending on the level of solar activity. The results imply that near the minimum of the solar cycle the energy release in quiet corona is mainly provided by small-scale events (nanoflares), whereas larger events (microflares) prevail on the peak of activity. Furthermore, we investigated the coronal conditions that had specified the formation and triggering of registered flares. By means of photospheric magnetograms obtained with MDI/SoHO and HMI/SDO instruments, we examined the topology of local magnetic fields at different stages: the pre-flare phase, the peak of intensity and the ending phase. To do so, we introduced a number of topological parameters including the total magnetic flux, the distance between magnetic sources and their mutual arrangement. The found correlation between the change of these parameters and the formation of flares may offer an important tool for application of flare forecasting.

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

Multiperspective smFRET reveals rate-determining late intermediates of ribosomal translocation.

PubMed

Wasserman, Michael R; Alejo, Jose L; Altman, Roger B; Blanchard, Scott C

2016-04-01

Directional translocation of the ribosome through the mRNA open reading frame is a critical determinant of translational fidelity. This process entails a complex interplay of large-scale conformational changes within the actively translating particle, which together coordinate the movement of tRNA and mRNA substrates with respect to the large and small ribosomal subunits. Using pre-steady state, single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer imaging, we tracked the nature and timing of these conformational events within the Escherichia coli ribosome from five structural perspectives. Our investigations revealed direct evidence of structurally and kinetically distinct late intermediates during substrate movement, whose resolution determines the rate of translocation. These steps involve intramolecular events within the EF-G-GDP-bound ribosome, including exaggerated, reversible fluctuations of the small-subunit head domain, which ultimately facilitate peptidyl-tRNA's movement into its final post-translocation position.

Multi-perspective smFRET reveals rate-determining late intermediates of ribosomal translocation

PubMed Central

Wasserman, Michael R.; Alejo, Jose L.; Altman, Roger B.; Blanchard, Scott C.

2016-01-01

Directional translocation of the ribosome through the messenger RNA open reading frame is a critical determinant of translational fidelity. This process entails a complex interplay of large-scale conformational changes within the actively translating particle, which together coordinate the movement of transfer and messenger RNA substrates with respect to the large and small ribosomal subunits. Using pre-steady state, single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer imaging, we have tracked the nature and timing of these conformational events within the Escherichia coli ribosome from five structural perspectives. Our investigations reveal direct evidence of structurally and kinetically distinct, late intermediates during substrate movement, whose resolution is rate-determining to the translocation mechanism. These steps involve intra-molecular events within the EFG(GDP)-bound ribosome, including exaggerated, reversible fluctuations of the small subunit head domain, which ultimately facilitate peptidyl-tRNA’s movement into its final post-translocation position. PMID:26926435

Fast magnetic reconnection supported by sporadic small-scale Petschek-type shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shibayama, Takuya, E-mail: shibayama@stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp; Nakabou, Takashi; Kusano, Kanya

2015-10-15

Standard magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory predicts reconnection rate that is far too slow to account for a wide variety of reconnection events observed in space and laboratory plasmas. Therefore, it was commonly accepted that some non-MHD (kinetic) effects play a crucial role in fast reconnection. A recently renewed interest in simple MHD models is associated with the so-called plasmoid instability of reconnecting current sheets. Although it is now evident that this effect can significantly enhance the rate of reconnection, many details of the underlying multiple-plasmoid process still remain controversial. Here, we report results of a high-resolution computer simulation which demonstrate thatmore » fast albeit intermittent magnetic reconnection is sustained by numerous small-scale Petschek-type shocks spontaneously formed in the current sheet due to its plasmoid instability.« less

Limits on radio emission from meteors using the MWA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Hancock, P.; Devillepoix, H. A. R.; Wayth, R. B.; Beardsley, A.; Crosse, B.; Emrich, D.; Franzen, T. M. O.; Gaensler, B. M.; Horsley, L.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kaplan, D. L.; Kenney, D.; Morales, M. F.; Pallot, D.; Steele, K.; Tingay, S. J.; Trott, C. M.; Walker, M.; Williams, A.; Wu, C.; Ji, Jianghui; Ma, Yuehua

2018-07-01

Recently, low-frequency, broad-band radio emission has been observed accompanying bright meteors by the Long Wavelength Array (LWA). The broad-band spectra between 20 and 60 MHz were captured for several events, while the spectral index (dependence of flux density on frequency, with Sν ∝ να) was estimated to be -4 ± 1 during the peak of meteor afterglows. Here we present a survey of meteor emission and other transient events using the Murchison Wide Field Array (MWA) at 72-103 MHz. In our 322 h survey, down to a 5σ detection threshold of 3.5 Jy beam-1, no transient candidates were identified as intrinsic emission from meteors. We derived an upper limit of -3.7 (95 per cent confidence limit) on the spectral index in our frequency range. We also report detections of other transient events, such as reflected FM broadcast signals from small satellites, conclusively demonstrating the ability of the MWA to detect and track space debris on scales as small as 0.1 m in low Earth orbits.

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

2017-04-01

The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

SIGN SINGULARITY AND FLARES IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 11158

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorriso-Valvo, L.; De Vita, G.; Kazachenko, M. D.

Solar Active Region NOAA 11158 has hosted a number of strong flares, including one X2.2 event. The complexity of current density and current helicity are studied through cancellation analysis of their sign-singular measure, which features power-law scaling. Spectral analysis is also performed, revealing the presence of two separate scaling ranges with different spectral index. The time evolution of parameters is discussed. Sudden changes of the cancellation exponents at the time of large flares and the presence of correlation with Extreme-Ultra-Violet and X-ray flux suggest that eruption of large flares can be linked to the small-scale properties of the current structures.

Source characterization of a small earthquake cluster at Edmond, Oklahoma using a very dense array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, R.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Recent seismicity in Oklahoma has caught the attention of the public in the last few years since seismicity is commonly related to loss in urban areas. To account for the increase in public interest, improve the understanding of damaging ground motions produced in earthquakes and develop better seismic hazard assessment, we must characterize the seismicity in Oklahoma and its associated structure and source parameters. Regional changes in subsurface stresses have increased seismic activities due to reactivation of faults in places such as central Oklahoma. It is imperative for seismic investigation and modeling to characterize subsurface structural features that may influence the damaging effects of ground motion. We analyze the full-waveform data collected from a temporary dense array of 72 portable seismometers with a 110 meter spacing that were active for a one-month period from May to June 2017, deployed at Edmond, Oklahoma. The data from this one-month duration array captured over 10,000 events and enabled us to make measurements of small-scale lateral variations of earthquake wavefields. We examine the waveform for events using advanced methods of detection, location and determine the source mechanism. We compare our results with selected events listed in the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalogue. Based on the detection and located small events, we will discuss the causative fault structure at the area and present the results of the investigation.

Children's Responses to the Interactivity of Storybook Apps in Family Shared Reading Events Involving the iPad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aliagas, Cristina; Margallo, Ana María

2017-01-01

This paper reports on some data on the effects of screen-based interactivity on children's engagement with storybook apps during family shared book reading that were gathered in a 2-year, small-scale ethnographic case study in Spain. Data analysis focuses on the complex interplay between the storybook app's interactive features and the children's…

The Gradual Transformation of Historical Situations: Understanding "Change and Continuity" through Colours and Timelines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vella, Yosanne

2011-01-01

The small-scale research that Yosanne Vella reports in this article was driven by concern to help pupils develop "big picture" visions of the past and to engage effectively with the idea of change as a process rather than an event. The strategy that she adopts--asking groups of students to colour in a timeline recording their judgement…

Physicochemical characterization of smoke aerosol during large-scale wildfires: Extreme event of August 2010 in Moscow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovicheva, O.; Kistler, M.; Kireeva, E.; Persiantseva, N.; Timofeev, M.; Kopeikin, V.; Kasper-Giebl, A.

2014-10-01

Enhancement of biomass burning-related research is essential for the assessment of large-scale wildfires impact on pollution at regional and global scale. Starting since 6 August 2010 Moscow was covered with thick smoke of unusually high PM10 and BC concentrations, considerably affected by huge forest and peat fires around megacity. This work presents the first comprehensive physico-chemical characterization of aerosols during extreme smoke event in Moscow in August 2010. Sampling was performed in the Moscow center and suburb as well as one year later, in August 2011 during a period when no biomass burning was observed. Small-scale experimental fires of regional biomass were conducted in the Moscow region. Carbon content, functionalities of organic/inorganic compounds, tracers of biomass burning (anhydrosaccharides), ionic composition, and structure of smoke were analyzed by thermal-optical analysis, FTIR spectroscopy, liquid and ion chromatography, and electron microscopy. Carbonaceous aerosol in August 2010 was dominated by organic species with elemental carbon (EC) as minor component. High average OC/EC near 27.4 is found, comparable to smoke of regional biomass smoldering fire, and exceeded 3 times the value observed in August 2011. Organic functionalities of Moscow smoke aerosols were hydroxyl, aliphatic, aromatic, acid and non-acid carbonyl, and nitro compound groups, almost all of them indicate wildfires around city as the source of smoke. The ratio of levoglucosan (LG) to mannosan near 5 confirms the origin of smoke from coniferous forest fires around megacity. Low ratio of LG/OC near 0.8% indicates the degradation of major molecular tracer of biomass burning in urban environment. Total concentration of inorganic ions dominated by sulfates SO4 2 - and ammonium NH4+ was found about 5 times higher during large-scale wildfires than in August 2011. Together with strong sulfate and ammonium absorbance in smoke aerosols, these observations prove the formation of secondary inorganic species associated with wildfire gaseous emissions and their transformation in aged smoke. Accumulation of carbonyl compounds during extreme smoke event in Moscow resulted from photochemical aging and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the urban atmosphere. The mixture of carbonaceous particles and dust revealed multicomponent structure of Moscow smoke aerosols, pointing the difference with non-smoke ambient aerosols. The abundance of group containing soot and tar balls approached at least a half of total aerosol concentration during extreme event, relating to elevated OC, EC and SOA. Fly ash groups contained calcium sulfates and carbonates from soil entrainment by hot air convection. Small-scale open fire experiments support the identification of specific chemical features of regional biomass burning and demonstrate the strong impact of large-scale wildfires on aerosol chemistry and air quality in highly polluted megacity.

An Analysis of Eruptions Detected by the LMSAL Eruption Patrol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurlburt, N. E.; Higgins, P. A.; Jaffey, S.

2014-12-01

Observations of the solar atmosphere reveals a wide range of real and apparent motions, from small scale jets and spicules to global-scale coronal mass ejections. Identifying and characterizing these motions are essential to advance our understanding the drivers of space weather. Automated and visual identifications are used in identifying CMEs. To date, the precursors to these — eruptions near the solar surface — have been identified primarily by visual inspection. Here we report on an analysis of the eruptions detected by the Eruption Patrol, a data mining module designed to automatically identify eruptions from data collected by Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). We describe the module and use it both to explore relations with other solar events recorded in the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase and to identify and access data collected by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on Hinode for further analysis.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

Nonlinear effects of microtopography on macroscopic rainfall-runoff partitioning a the hillslope scale: a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Domin, Andrea; Hinz, Christoph

2017-04-01

The quantitative description and prediction of hydrological response of hillslopes or hillslope-scale catchments to rainfall events is becoming evermore relevant. At the hillslope scale, the onset of runoff and the overall rainfall-runoff transformation are controlled by multiple interacting small-scale processes, that, when acting together produce a response described in terms of hydrological variables well-defined at the catchment and hillslope scales. We hypothesize that small scale features such microtopography of the land surface will will govern large scale signatures of temporal runoff evolution. This can be tested directly by numerical modelling of well-defined surface geometries and adequate process description. It requires a modelling approach consistent with fundamental fluid mechanics, well-designed numerical methods, and computational efficiency. In this work, an idealized rectangular domain representing a hillslope with an idealized 2D sinusoidal microtopography is studied by simulating surface water redistribution by means of a 2D diffusive-wave (zero-inertia) shallow water model. By studying more than 500 surfaces and performing extensive sensitivity analysis forced by a single rainfall pulse, the dependency of characteristic hydrological responses to microtopographical properties was assessed. Despite of the simplicity of periodic surface and the rain event, results indicate complex surface flow dynamics during the onset of runoff observed at the macro and micro scales. Macro scale regimes were defined in terms of characteristics hydrograph shapes and those were related to surface geometry. The reference regime was defined for smooth topography and consisted of a simple hydrograph with smoothly rising and falling limbs with an intermediate steady state. In constrast, rough surface geometry yields stepwise rising limbs and shorter steady states. Furthermore, the increase in total infiltration over the whole domain relative to the smooth reference case shows a strong non-linear dependency on slope and the ratio of the characteristic wavelength and amplitude of microtopography. The coupled analysis of spatial and hydrological results also suggests that the hydrological behaviour can be explained by the spatiotemporal variations triggered by surface connectivity. This study significantly extents previous work on 1D domains, as our results reveal complexities that require 2D representation of the runoff processes.

Formation of bi-lobed 67P/C-G-like shapes by sub-catastrophic collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jutzi, Martin; Benz, Willy

2016-10-01

Small bodies with a bi-lobe shape such as comet 67P/C-G have been argued to form as the result of low velocity (v ≈ vesc) collisional mergers of similar-sized bodies very early on in the history of the solar system [1]. However, the recent analysis of the subsequent collisional survival of the global structure and shape of comet 67P/C-G strongly suggests that such a structure will not survive until today [2]. Hence, the comet must have acquired its present characteristics as a result of a collision occurring at later time when the relative velocities between small bodies are much higher (v >> vesc).One possible scenario would be that 67P/C-G-like bi-lobe structures form as the result of collisional disruptions of larger parent bodies [3]. Whether the internal properties of such larger parent bodies, the timing of such a collision, and the subsequent survival of the shape produced is compatible with observations will remain to be seen.Here, we propose a scenario in which the final bi-lobe shapes result from low-energy, sub-catastrophic impacts. We start with bodies of about the same mass as comet 67P/C-G, which are rotating and are slightly elongated (i.e., with properties which are consistent with the outcome of the disruptions of larger bodies). We use a SPH shock physics code to model the impacts, the subsequent re-accumulation of material and the reconfiguration into a stable final shape. Our modelling results suggest that these kind of collisions result in "splitting" events which frequently lead to formation of bi-lobe 67P/C-G-like shapes.The frequency of such small-scale impact events is consistent with a young (less than 1 Gy) age of the shape of comet 67P/C-G [2]. Equally important, the probability for such a shape-forming event to take place without a subsequent shape-destroying event occurring until today is reasonably high.Although the collisions considered in this work can alter the global shape, their respective energy is small enough not to lead to any substantial global-scale heating or compaction, consistent with the observed primordial characteristics of comets.[1] Jutzi&Asphaug, 2015, Science 348. [2] Jutzi et al., submitted. [3] Schwartz et al., in prep.

Scale size-dependent characteristics of the nightside aurora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberset, B. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Samara, M.; Michell, R. G.

2017-02-01

We have determined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling using auroral imaging. Observations at fixed positions for an extended period of time are provided by a ground-based all-sky imager measuring the 557.7 nm auroral emissions. We report on a single event of nightside aurora (˜22 magnetic local time) preceding a substorm onset. To determine the spatiotemporal characteristics, we perform an innovative analysis of an all-sky imager movie (19 min duration, images at 3.31 Hz) that combines a two-dimensional spatial fast Fourier transform with a temporal correlation. We find a scale size-dependent variability where the largest scale sizes are stable on timescales of minutes while the small scale sizes are more variable. When comparing two smaller time intervals of different types of auroral displays, we find a variation in their characteristics. The characteristics averaged over the event are in remarkable agreement with the spatiotemporal characteristics of the nightside field-aligned currents during moderately disturbed times. Thus, two different electrodynamical parameters of the M-I coupling show similar behavior. This gives independent support to the claim of a system behavior that uses repeatable solutions to transfer energy and momentum from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere.

Assessment of erosion and sedimentation dynamic in a combined sewer network using online turbidity monitoring.

PubMed

Bersinger, T; Le Hécho, I; Bareille, G; Pigot, T

2015-01-01

Eroded sewer sediments are a significant source of organic matter discharge by combined sewer overflows. Many authors have studied the erosion and sedimentation processes at the scale of a section of sewer pipe and over short time periods. The objective of this study was to assess these processes at the scale of an entire sewer network and over 1 month, to understand whether phenomena observed on a small scale of space and time are still valid on a larger scale. To achieve this objective the continuous monitoring of turbidity was used. First, the study of successive rain events allows observation of the reduction of the available sediment and highlights the widely different erosion resistance for the different sediment layers. Secondly, calculation of daily chemical oxygen demand (COD) fluxes during the entire month was performed showing that sediment storage in the sewer pipe after a rain period is important and stops after 5 days. Nevertheless, during rainfall events, the eroded fluxes are more important than the whole sewer sediment accumulated during a dry weather period. This means that the COD fluxes promoted by runoff are substantial. This work confirms, with online monitoring, most of the conclusions from other studies on a smaller scale.

Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.; Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-10-01

Multi-scale failure of porous materials is an important phenomenon in nature and in material physics - from controlled laboratory tests to rockbursts, landslides, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. A key unsolved research question is how to accurately forecast the time of system-sized catastrophic failure, based on observations of precursory events such as acoustic emissions (AE) in laboratory samples, or, on a larger scale, small earthquakes. Until now, the length scale associated with precursory events has not been well quantified, resulting in forecasting tools that are often unreliable. Here we test the hypothesis that the accuracy of the forecast failure time depends on the inter-flaw distance in the starting material. We use new experimental datasets for the deformation of porous materials to infer the critical crack length at failure from a static damage mechanics model. The style of acceleration of AE rate prior to failure, and the accuracy of forecast failure time, both depend on whether the cracks can span the inter-flaw length or not. A smooth inverse power-law acceleration of AE rate to failure, and an accurate forecast, occurs when the cracks are sufficiently long to bridge pore spaces. When this is not the case, the predicted failure time is much less accurate and failure is preceded by an exponential AE rate trend. Finally, we provide a quantitative and pragmatic correction for the systematic error in the forecast failure time, valid for structurally isotropic porous materials, which could be tested against larger-scale natural failure events, with suitable scaling for the relevant inter-flaw distances.

Element analysis: a wavelet-based method for analysing time-localized events in noisy time series.

PubMed

Lilly, Jonathan M

2017-04-01

A method is derived for the quantitative analysis of signals that are composed of superpositions of isolated, time-localized 'events'. Here, these events are taken to be well represented as rescaled and phase-rotated versions of generalized Morse wavelets, a broad family of continuous analytic functions. Analysing a signal composed of replicates of such a function using another Morse wavelet allows one to directly estimate the properties of events from the values of the wavelet transform at its own maxima. The distribution of events in general power-law noise is determined in order to establish significance based on an expected false detection rate. Finally, an expression for an event's 'region of influence' within the wavelet transform permits the formation of a criterion for rejecting spurious maxima due to numerical artefacts or other unsuitable events. Signals can then be reconstructed based on a small number of isolated points on the time/scale plane. This method, termed element analysis , is applied to the identification of long-lived eddy structures in ocean currents as observed by along-track measurements of sea surface elevation from satellite altimetry.

Experimental Hypervelocity Dust Impact in Olivine: FIB/TEM Characterization of Micron-Scale Craters with Comparison to Natural and Laser-Simulated Small-Scale Impact Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christoffersen, R.; Loeffler, M. J.; Rahman, Z.; Dukes, C.; IMPACT Team

2017-01-01

The space weathering of regoliths on airless bodies and the formation of their exospheres is driven to a large extent by hypervelocity impacts from the high relative flux of micron to sub-micron meteoroids that comprise approximately 90 percent of the solar system meteoroid population. Laboratory hypervelocity impact experiments are crucial for quantifying how these small impact events drive space weathering through target shock, melting and vaporization. Simulating these small scale impacts experimentally is challenging because the natural impactors are both very small and many have velocities above the approximately 8 kilometers-per-second limit attainable by conventional chemical/light gas accelerator technology. Electrostatic "dust" accelerators, such as the one recently developed at the Colorado Center for Lunar Dust and Atmospheric Studies (CCLDAS), allow the experimental velocity regime to be extended up to tens of kilometers-per-second. Even at these velocities the region of latent target damage created by each impact, in the form of microcraters or pits, is still only about 0.1 to 10 micrometers in size. Both field-emission analytical scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and advanced field-emission scanning transmission electron microscopy (FE-STEM) are uniquely suited for characterizing the individual dust impact sites in these experiments. In this study, we have used both techniques, along with focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation, to characterize the micrometer to nanometer scale effects created by accelerated dust impacts into olivine single crystals. To our knowledge this work presents the first TEM-scale characterization of dust impacts into a key solar system silicate mineral using the CCLDAS facility. Our overarching goal for this work is to establish a basis to compare with our previous results on natural dust-impacted lunar olivine and laser-irradiated olivine.

Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-09-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), convection-resolving weather and climate models allows one to explicitly resolve deep convection. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in supercomputing have led to new hybrid node designs, mixing conventional multi-core hardware and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to these architectures is the COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) model.Here we present the convection-resolving COSMO model on continental scales using a version of the model capable of using GPU accelerators. The verification of a week-long simulation containing winter storm Kyrill shows that, for this case, convection-parameterizing simulations and convection-resolving simulations agree well. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach to longer simulations by conducting a 3-month-long simulation of the summer season 2006. Its results corroborate the findings found on smaller domains such as more credible representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in convection-resolving models and a tendency to produce more intensive hourly precipitation events. Both simulations also show how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. This includes the formation of sharp cold frontal structures, convection embedded in fronts and small eddies, or the formation and organization of propagating cold pools. Finally, we assess the performance gain from using heterogeneous hardware equipped with GPUs relative to multi-core hardware. With the COSMO model, we now use a weather and climate model that has all the necessary modules required for real-case convection-resolving regional climate simulations on GPUs.

Energetics of small electron acceleration episodes in the solar corona from radio noise storm observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Tomin; Subramanian, Prasad

2018-05-01

Observations of radio noise storms can act as sensitive probes of nonthermal electrons produced in small acceleration events in the solar corona. We use data from noise storm episodes observed jointly by the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) and the Nancay Radioheliograph (NRH) to study characteristics of the nonthermal electrons involved in the emission. We find that the electrons carry 1021 to 1024 erg/s, and that the energy contained in the electrons producing a representative noise storm burst ranges from 1020 to 1023 ergs. These results are a direct probe of the energetics involved in ubiquitous, small-scale electron acceleration episodes in the corona, and could be relevant to a nanoflare-like scenario for coronal heating.

Classification of event location using matched filters via on-floor accelerometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolard, Americo G.; Malladi, V. V. N. Sriram; Alajlouni, Sa'ed; Tarazaga, Pablo A.

2017-04-01

Recent years have shown prolific advancements in smart infrastructures, allowing buildings of the modern world to interact with their occupants. One of the sought-after attributes of smart buildings is the ability to provide unobtrusive, indoor localization of occupants. The ability to locate occupants indoors can provide a broad range of benefits in areas such as security, emergency response, and resource management. Recent research has shown promising results in occupant building localization, although there is still significant room for improvement. This study presents a passive, small-scale localization system using accelerometers placed around the edges of a small area in an active building environment. The area is discretized into a grid of small squares, and vibration measurements are processed using a pattern matching approach that estimates the location of the source. Vibration measurements are produced with ball-drops, hammer-strikes, and footsteps as the sources of the floor excitation. The developed approach uses matched filters based on a reference data set, and the location is classified using a nearest-neighbor search. This approach detects the appropriate location of impact-like sources i.e. the ball-drops and hammer-strikes with a 100% accuracy. However, this accuracy reduces to 56% for footsteps, with the average localization results being within 0.6 m (α = 0.05) from the true source location. While requiring a reference data set can make this method difficult to implement on a large scale, it may be used to provide accurate localization abilities in areas where training data is readily obtainable. This exploratory work seeks to examine the feasibility of the matched filter and nearest neighbor search approach for footstep and event localization in a small, instrumented area within a multi-story building.

Classification and Physical parameters EUV coronal jets with STEREO/SECCHI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nistico, Giuseppe; Bothmer, Volker; Patsourakos, Spiro; Zimbardo, Gaetano

In this work we present observations of EUV coronal jets, detected with the SECCHI (Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation) imaging suites of the two STEREO spacecraft. Starting from catalogues of polar and equatorial coronal hole jets (Nistico' et al., Solar Phys., 259, 87, 2009; Ann. Geophys. in press), identified from simultaneous EUV and white-light coronagraph observations, taken during the time period March 2007 to April 2008 when solar activity was at minimum, we perfom a detailed study of some events. A basic char-acterisation of the magnetic morphology and identification of the presence of helical structure were established with respect to recently proposed models for their origin and temporal evo-lution. A classification of the events with respect to previous jet studies shows that amongst the 79 events, identified into polar coronal holes, there were 37 Eiffel tower -type jet events commonly interpreted as a small-scale ( 35 arcsec) magnetic bipole reconnecting with the ambi-ent unipolar open coronal magnetic fields at its looptops, 12 lambda-type jet events commonly interpreted as reconnection with the ambient field happening at the bipoles footpoints. Five events were termed micro-CME type jet events because they resembled classical three-part structured coronal mass ejections (CMEs) but on much smaller scales. The remainig 25 cases could not be uniquely classified. Thirty-one of the total number of events exhibited a helical magnetic field structure, indicative for a torsional motion of the jet around its axis of propaga-tion. The jet events are found to be also present in equatorial coronal holes. We also present the 3-D reconstruction, temperature, velocity, and density measurements of a number of jets during their evolution.

Impact of Stressful Life Events on Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

PubMed

Yu, Tsung; Frei, Anja; Ter Riet, Gerben; Puhan, Milo A

There is a general notion that stressful life events may cause mental and physical health problems. We aimed to describe stressful life events reported by patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to assess their impact on health outcomes and behaviors. Two hundred and sixty-six primary care patients who participated in the ICE COLD ERIC cohort study were asked to document any stressful life events in the past 3 years. We assessed the before-after (the event) changes for symptoms of depression and anxiety, health status, dyspnea-related quality of life, exacerbations, cigarette use, and physical activity. We used linear regression analysis to estimate the crude and adjusted magnitude of the before-after changes. About 41% (110/266) of patients reported the experience of any stressful life events and "death of relatives/important persons" was most common (31%). After accounting for age, sex, living status, lung function, and anxiety/depression status at baseline, experiencing any stressful life events was associated with a 0.9-point increase on the depression scale (95% CI 0.3 to 1.4), a 0.8-point increase on the anxiety scale (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3), and a 0.8-point decrease in the physical activity score (95% CI -1.6 to 0). Experiencing stressful life events was associated with a small to moderate increase in symptoms of depression and anxiety in COPD, but no discernable effect was found for other physical outcomes. However, confirmation of these results in other COPD cohorts and identification of patients particularly vulnerable to stressful life events are needed. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

A Model for Straight and Helical Solar Jets: II. Parametric Study of the Plasma Beta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pariat, E.; Dalmasse, K.; DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Karpen, J. T.

2016-01-01

Context. Jets are dynamic, impulsive, well-collimated plasma events that develop at many different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Aims. Jets are believed to be induced by magnetic reconnection, a process central to many astrophysical phenomena. Within the solar atmosphere, jet-like events develop in many different environments, e.g. in the vicinity of active regions as well as in coronal holes, and at various scales, from small photospheric spicules to large coronal jets. In all these events, signatures of helical structure and/or twisting/rotating motions are regularly observed. The present study aims to establish that a single model can generally reproduce the observed properties of these jet-like events. Methods. In this study, using our state-of-the-art numerical solver ARMS, we present a parametric study of a numerical tridimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of solar jet-like events. Within the MHD paradigm, we study the impact of varying the atmospheric plasma beta on the generation and properties of solar-like jets. Results. The parametric study validates our model of jets for plasma beta ranging from 10(sup 3) to 1, typical of the different layers and magnetic environments of the solar atmosphere. Our model of jets can robustly explain the generation of helical solar jet-like events at various beta less than or equal to 1. We show that the plasma beta modifies the morphology of the helical jet, explaining the different observed shapes of jets at different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Conclusions. Our results allow us to understand the energisation, triggering, and driving processes of jet-like events. Our model allows us to make predictions of the impulsiveness and energetics of jets as determined by the surrounding environment, as well as the morphological properties of the resulting jets.

Post-Seismic Deformation from the 2009 Mw 6.3 Dachaidan Earthquake in the Northern Qaidam Basin Detected by Small Baseline Subset InSAR Technique

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Li, Zhicai

2016-01-01

On 28 August 2009, one thrust-faulting Mw 6.3 earthquake struck the northern Qaidam basin, China. Due to the lack of ground observations in this remote region, this study presents high-precision and high spatio-temporal resolution post-seismic deformation series with a small baseline subset InSAR technique. At the temporal scale, this changes from fast to slow with time, with a maximum uplift up to 7.4 cm along the line of sight 334 days after the event. At the spatial scale, this is more obvious at the hanging wall than that at the footwall, and decreases from the middle to both sides at the hanging wall. We then propose a method to calculate the correlation coefficient between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation by normalizing them. The correlation coefficient is found to be 0.73, indicating a similar subsurface process occurring during both phases. The results indicate that afterslip may dominate the post-seismic deformation during 19–334 days after the event, which mainly occurs with the fault geometry and depth similar to those of the c-seismic rupturing, and partly extends to the shallower and deeper depths. PMID:26861330

Post-Seismic Deformation from the 2009 Mw 6.3 Dachaidan Earthquake in the Northern Qaidam Basin Detected by Small Baseline Subset InSAR Technique.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Li, Zhicai

2016-02-05

On 28 August 2009, one thrust-faulting Mw 6.3 earthquake struck the northern Qaidam basin, China. Due to the lack of ground observations in this remote region, this study presents high-precision and high spatio-temporal resolution post-seismic deformation series with a small baseline subset InSAR technique. At the temporal scale, this changes from fast to slow with time, with a maximum uplift up to 7.4 cm along the line of sight 334 days after the event. At the spatial scale, this is more obvious at the hanging wall than that at the footwall, and decreases from the middle to both sides at the hanging wall. We then propose a method to calculate the correlation coefficient between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation by normalizing them. The correlation coefficient is found to be 0.73, indicating a similar subsurface process occurring during both phases. The results indicate that afterslip may dominate the post-seismic deformation during 19-334 days after the event, which mainly occurs with the fault geometry and depth similar to those of the c-seismic rupturing, and partly extends to the shallower and deeper depths.

Large-scale unloading processes preceding the 2015 Mw 8.4 Illapel, Chile earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Meng, L.

2017-12-01

Foreshocks and/or slow slip are observed to accelerate before some recent large earthquakes. However, it is still controversial regarding the universality of precursory signals and their value in hazard assessment or mitigation. On 16 September 2015, the Mw 8.4 Illapel earthquake ruptured a section of the subduction thrust on the west coast of central Chile. Small earthquakes are important in resolving possible precursors but are often incomplete in routine catalogs. Here, we employ the matched filter technique to recover the undocumented small events in a 4-years period before the Illapel mainshock. We augment the template dataset from Chilean Seismological Center (CSN) with previously found new repeating aftershocks in the study area. We detect a total of 17658 events in the 4-years period before the mainshock, 6.3 times more than the CSN catalog. The magnitudes of detected events are determined according to different magnitude-amplitude relations estimated at different stations. Among the enhanced catalog, 183 repeating earthquakes are identified before the mainshock. Repeating earthquakes are located at both the northern and southern sides of the principal coseismic slip zone. The seismicity and aseismic slip progressively accelerate in a small low-coupling area around the epicenter starting from 140 days before the mainshock. The acceleration leads to a M 5.3 event 36 days before the mainshock, then followed by a relative quiescence in both seismicity and slow slip until the mainshock. This may correspond to a slow aseismic nucleation phase after the slow-slip transient ends. In addition, to the north of the mainshock rupture area, the last aseismic-slip episode occurs within 175-95 days before the mainshock and accumulates the largest amount of slip in the observation period. The simultaneous occurrence of slow slip over a large area indicates a large-scale unloading process preceding the mainshock. In contrast, in a region 70-150 km south of the mainshock, the aseismic-slip rate is relatively steady and mostly reflects the decelerating afterslip. Our results highlight the importance of continuously monitoring seismicity and repeating earthquakes at the transition from low to high coupling areas where large earthquake ruptures may initiate.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

Stochastic Reconnection for Large Magnetic Prandtl Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafari, Amir; Vishniac, Ethan T.; Kowal, Grzegorz; Lazarian, Alex

2018-06-01

We consider stochastic magnetic reconnection in high-β plasmas with large magnetic Prandtl numbers, Pr m > 1. For large Pr m , field line stochasticity is suppressed at very small scales, impeding diffusion. In addition, viscosity suppresses very small-scale differential motions and therefore also the local reconnection. Here we consider the effect of high magnetic Prandtl numbers on the global reconnection rate in a turbulent medium and provide a diffusion equation for the magnetic field lines considering both resistive and viscous dissipation. We find that the width of the outflow region is unaffected unless Pr m is exponentially larger than the Reynolds number Re. The ejection velocity of matter from the reconnection region is also unaffected by viscosity unless Re ∼ 1. By these criteria the reconnection rate in typical astrophysical systems is almost independent of viscosity. This remains true for reconnection in quiet environments where current sheet instabilities drive reconnection. However, if Pr m > 1, viscosity can suppress small-scale reconnection events near and below the Kolmogorov or viscous damping scale. This will produce a threshold for the suppression of large-scale reconnection by viscosity when {\\Pr }m> \\sqrt{Re}}. In any case, for Pr m > 1 this leads to a flattening of the magnetic fluctuation power spectrum, so that its spectral index is ∼‑4/3 for length scales between the viscous dissipation scale and eddies larger by roughly {{\\Pr }}m3/2. Current numerical simulations are insensitive to this effect. We suggest that the dependence of reconnection on viscosity in these simulations may be due to insufficient resolution for the turbulent inertial range rather than a guide to the large Re limit.

Extension of Gutenberg-Richter distribution to MW -1.3, no lower limit in sight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boettcher, Margaret S.; McGarr, A.; Johnston, Malcolm

2009-05-01

With twelve years of seismic data from TauTona Gold Mine, South Africa, we show that mining-induced earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter relation with no scale break down to the completeness level of the catalog, at moment magnitude M W -1.3. Events recorded during relatively quiet hours in 2006 indicate that catalog detection limitations, not earthquake source physics, controlled the previously reported minimum magnitude in this mine. Within the Natural Earthquake Laboratory in South African Mines (NELSAM) experiment's dense seismic array, earthquakes that exhibit shear failure at magnitudes as small as M W -3.9 are observed, but we find no evidence that M W -3.9 represents the minimum magnitude. In contrast to previous work, our results imply small nucleation zones and that earthquake processes in the mine can readily be scaled to those in either laboratory experiments or natural faults.

Evidence of small-scale magnetic concentrations dragged by vortex motion of solar photospheric plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balmaceda, L.; Vargas Domínguez, S.; Palacios, J.; Cabello, I.; Domingo, V.

2010-04-01

Vortex-type motions have been measured by tracking bright points in high-resolution observations of the solar photosphere. These small-scale motions are thought to be determinant in the evolution of magnetic footpoints and their interaction with plasma and therefore likely to play a role in heating the upper solar atmosphere by twisting magnetic flux tubes. We report the observation of magnetic concentrations being dragged towards the center of a convective vortex motion in the solar photosphere from high-resolution ground-based and space-borne data. We describe this event by analyzing a series of images at different solar atmospheric layers. By computing horizontal proper motions, we detect a vortex whose center appears to be the draining point for the magnetic concentrations detected in magnetograms and well-correlated with the locations of bright points seen in G-band and CN images.

Extension of Gutenberg-Richter distribution to Mw -1.3, no lower limit in sight

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boettcher, M.S.; McGarr, A.; Johnston, M.

2009-01-01

[1] With twelve years of seismic data from TauTona Gold Mine, South Africa, we show that mining-induced earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter relation with no scale break down to the completeness level of the catalog, at moment magnitude Mw -1.3. Events recorded during relatively quiet hours in 2006 indicate that catalog detection limitations, not earthquake source physics, controlled the previously reported minimum magnitude in this mine. Within the Natural Earthquake Laboratory in South African Mines (NELSAM) experiment's dense seismic array, earthquakes that exhibit shear failure at magnitudes as small as Mw -3.9 are observed, but we find no evidence that Mw -3.9 represents the minimum magnitude. In contrast to previous work, our results imply small nucleation zones and that earthquake processes in the mine can readily be scaled to those in either laboratory experiments or natural faults.

TerraSAR-X interferometry reveals small-scale deformation associated with the summit eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Nicole; Poland, Michael P.; Lundgren, Paul R.

2013-04-01

On 19 March 2008, a small explosive eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i, heralded the formation of a new vent along the east wall of Halema`uma`u Crater. In the ensuing years, the vent widened due to collapses of the unstable rim and conduit wall; some collapses impacted an actively circulating lava pond and resulted in small explosive events. We used synthetic aperture radar data collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite, a joint venture between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and EADS Astrium, to identify and analyze small-scale surface deformation around the new vent during 2008-2012. Lidar data were used to construct a digital elevation model to correct for topographic phase, allowing us to generate differential interferograms with a spatial resolution of about 3 m in Kīlauea's summit area. These interferograms reveal subsidence within about 100 m of the rim of the vent. Small baseline subset time series analysis suggests that the subsidence rate is not constant and, over time, may provide an indication of vent stability and potential for rim and wall collapse—information with obvious hazard implications. The deformation is not currently detectable by other space- or ground-based techniques.

TerraSAR-X interferometry reveals small-scale deformation associated with the summit eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richter, Nichole; Poland, Michael P.; Lundgren, Paul R.

2013-01-01

On 19 March 2008, a small explosive eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, heralded the formation of a new vent along the east wall of Halema‘uma‘u Crater. In the ensuing years, the vent widened due to collapses of the unstable rim and conduit wall; some collapses impacted an actively circulating lava pond and resulted in small explosive events. We used synthetic aperture radar data collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite, a joint venture between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and EADS Astrium, to identify and analyze small-scale surface deformation around the new vent during 2008-2012. Lidar data were used to construct a digital elevation model to correct for topographic phase, allowing us to generate differential interferograms with a spatial resolution of about 3 m in Kīlauea's summit area. These interferograms reveal subsidence within about 100 m of the rim of the vent. Small baseline subset time series analysis suggests that the subsidence rate is not constant and, over time, may provide an indication of vent stability and potential for rim and wall collapse -- information with obvious hazard implications. The deformation is not currently detectable by other space- or ground-based techniques.

Evaluation of cool season precipitation event characteristics over the Northeast US in a suite of downscaled climate model hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Jinwon; Ferraro, Robert

2017-08-01

Cool season precipitation event characteristics are evaluated across a suite of downscaled climate models over the northeastern US. Downscaled hindcast simulations are produced by dynamically downscaling the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model. NU-WRF RCM simulations are produced at 24, 12, and 4-km horizontal resolutions using a range of spectral nudging schemes while the MERRA2 global downscaled run is provided at 12.5-km. All model runs are evaluated using four metrics designed to capture key features of precipitation events: event frequency, event intensity, even total, and event duration. Overall, the downscaling approaches result in a reasonable representation of many of the key features of precipitation events over the region, however considerable biases exist in the magnitude of each metric. Based on this evaluation there is no clear indication that higher resolution simulations result in more realistic results in general, however many small-scale features such as orographic enhancement of precipitation are only captured at higher resolutions suggesting some added value over coarser resolution. While the differences between simulations produced using nudging and no nudging are small, there is some improvement in model fidelity when nudging is introduced, especially at a cutoff wavelength of 600 km compared to 2000 km. Based on the results of this evaluation, dynamical regional downscaling using NU-WRF results in a more realistic representation of precipitation event climatology than the global downscaling of MERRA2 using GEOS-5.

TANAMI: Tracking Active Galactic Nuclei with Austral Milliarcsecond Interferometry. II. Additional sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, C.; Kadler, M.; Ojha, R.; Schulz, R.; Trüstedt, J.; Edwards, P. G.; Ros, E.; Carpenter, B.; Angioni, R.; Blanchard, J.; Böck, M.; Burd, P. R.; Dörr, M.; Dutka, M. S.; Eberl, T.; Gulyaev, S.; Hase, H.; Horiuchi, S.; Katz, U.; Krauß, F.; Lovell, J. E. J.; Natusch, T.; Nesci, R.; Phillips, C.; Plötz, C.; Pursimo, T.; Quick, J. F. H.; Stevens, J.; Thompson, D. J.; Tingay, S. J.; Tzioumis, A. K.; Weston, S.; Wilms, J.; Zensus, J. A.

2018-02-01

Context. TANAMI is a multiwavelength program monitoring active galactic nuclei (AGN) south of - 30° declination including high-resolution very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) imaging, radio, optical/UV, X-ray, and γ-ray studies. We have previously published first-epoch8.4 GHz VLBI images of the parsec-scale structure of the initial sample. In this paper, we present images of 39 additional sources. The full sample comprises most of the radio- and γ-ray brightest AGN in the southern quarter of the sky, overlapping with the region from which high-energy (> 100 TeV) neutrino events have been found. Aims: We characterize the parsec-scale radio properties of the jets and compare them with the quasi-simultaneous Fermi/LAT γ-ray data. Furthermore, we study the jet properties of sources which are in positional coincidence with high-energy neutrino events compared to the full sample. We test the positional agreement of high-energy neutrino events with various AGN samples. Methods: TANAMI VLBI observations at 8.4 GHz are made with southern hemisphere radio telescopes located in Australia, Antarctica, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa. Results: Our observations yield the first images of many jets below - 30° declination at milliarcsecond resolution. We find that γ-ray loud TANAMI sources tend to be more compact on parsec-scales and have higher core brightness temperatures than γ-ray faint jets, indicating higher Doppler factors. No significant structural difference is found between sources in positional coincidence with high-energy neutrino events and other TANAMI jets. The 22 γ-ray brightest AGN in the TANAMI sky show only a weak positional agreement with high-energy neutrinos demonstrating that the > 100 TeV IceCube signal is not simply dominated by a small number of the γ-ray brightest blazars. Instead, a larger number of sources have to contribute to the signal with each individual source having only a small Poisson probability for producing an event in multi-year integrations of current neutrino detectors. The cleaned VLBI images displayed in Figs. 1, 2 and A.1 (FITS files) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/610/A1

Soft Water Level Sensors for Characterizing the Hydrological Behaviour of Agricultural Catchments

PubMed Central

Crabit, Armand; Colin, François; Bailly, Jean Stéphane; Ayroles, Hervé; Garnier, François

2011-01-01

An innovative soft water level sensor is proposed to characterize the hydrological behaviour of agricultural catchments by measuring rainfall and stream flows. This sensor works as a capacitor coupled with a capacitance to frequency converter and measures water level at an adjustable time step acquisition. It was designed to be handy, minimally invasive and optimized in terms of energy consumption and low-cost fabrication so as to multiply its use on several catchments under natural conditions. It was used as a stage recorder to measure water level dynamics in a channel during a runoff event and as a rain gauge to measure rainfall amount and intensity. Based on the Manning equation, a method allowed estimation of water discharge with a given uncertainty and hence runoff volume at an event or annual scale. The sensor was tested under controlled conditions in the laboratory and under real conditions in the field. Comparisons of the sensor to reference devices (tipping bucket rain gauge, hydrostatic pressure transmitter limnimeter, Venturi channels…) showed accurate results: rainfall intensities and dynamic responses were accurately reproduced and discharges were estimated with an uncertainty usually acceptable in hydrology. Hence, it was used to monitor eleven small agricultural catchments located in the Mediterranean region. Both catchment reactivity and water budget have been calculated. Dynamic response of the catchments has been studied at the event scale through the rising time determination and at the annual scale by calculating the frequency of occurrence of runoff events. It provided significant insight into catchment hydrological behaviour which could be useful for agricultural management perspectives involving pollutant transport, flooding event and global water balance. PMID:22163868

Radar-rain-gauge rainfall estimation for hydrological applications in small catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Procopio, Antonio

2017-07-01

The accurate evaluation of the precipitation's time-spatial structure is a critical step for rainfall-runoff modelling. Particularly for small catchments, the variability of rainfall can lead to mismatched results. Large errors in flow evaluation may occur during convective storms, responsible for most of the flash floods in small catchments in the Mediterranean area. During such events, we may expect large spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, using rain-gauge measurements only can be insufficient in order to adequately depict extreme rainfall events. In this work, a double-level information approach, based on rain gauges and weather radar measurements, is used to improve areal rainfall estimations for hydrological applications. In order to highlight the effect that precipitation fields with different level of spatial details have on hydrological modelling, two kinds of spatial rainfall fields were computed for precipitation data collected during 2015, considering both rain gauges only and their merging with radar information. The differences produced by these two precipitation fields in the computation of the areal mean rainfall accumulation were evaluated considering 999 basins of the region Calabria, southern Italy. Moreover, both of the two precipitation fields were used to carry out rainfall-runoff simulations at catchment scale for main precipitation events that occurred during 2015 and the differences between the scenarios obtained in the two cases were analysed. A representative case study is presented in detail.

Metrics for assessing the performance of morphodynamic models of braided rivers at event and reach scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Richard; Measures, Richard; Hicks, Murray; Brasington, James

2017-04-01

Advances in geomatics technologies have transformed the monitoring of reach-scale (100-101 km) river morphodynamics. Hyperscale Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) can now be acquired at temporal intervals that are commensurate with the frequencies of high-flow events that force morphological change. The low vertical errors associated with such DEMs enable DEMs of Difference (DoDs) to be generated to quantify patterns of erosion and deposition, and derive sediment budgets using the morphological approach. In parallel with reach-scale observational advances, high-resolution, two-dimensional, physics-based numerical morphodynamic models are now computationally feasible for unsteady, reach-scale simulations. In light of this observational and predictive progress, there is a need to identify appropriate metrics that can be extracted from DEMs and DoDs to assess model performance. Nowhere is this more pertinent than in braided river environments, where numerous mobile channels that intertwine around mid-channel bars result in complex patterns of erosion and deposition, thus making model assessment particularly challenging. This paper identifies and evaluates a range of morphological and morphological-change metrics that can be used to assess predictions of braided river morphodynamics at the timescale of single storm events. A depth-averaged, mixed-grainsize Delft3D morphodynamic model was used to simulate morphological change during four discrete high-flow events, ranging from 91 to 403 m3s-1, along a 2.5 x 0.7 km reach of the braided, gravel-bed Rees River, New Zealand. Pre- and post-event topographic surveys, using a fusion of Terrestrial Laser Scanning and optical-empirical bathymetric mapping, were used to produce 0.5 m resolution DEMs and DoDs. The pre- and post-event DEMs for a moderate (227m3s-1) high-flow event were used to calibrate the model. DEMs and DoDs from the other three high-flow events were used for model assessment using two approaches. First, "morphological" metrics were applied to compare observed and predicted post-event DEMs. These metrics include measures of confluence and bifurcation node density, bar shape, braiding intensity, and topographic comparisons using a form of the Brier Skill Score and cumulative frequency distributions of rugosity. Second, "morphological change" metrics were used to compare observed and predicted morphological change. These metrics included the extent of the morphologically active area, pairwise comparisons of morphological change (using kappa and fuzzy kappa statistics), and comparisons between vertical morphological change magnitude and elevation distribution. Results indicate that those metrics that assess characteristic features of braiding, rather than making direct comparisons, are most useful for assessing reach-scale braided river morphodynamic models. Together, the metrics indicate that there was a general affinity between observed and predicted braided river morphodynamics, both during small and large magnitude high-flow events. These results thus demonstrate how high-resolution, reach-scale, natural experiment datasets can be used to assess the efficacy of morphological models in predicting realistic patterns of erosion and deposition. This lays the foundation for the development and assessment of decadal scale morphodynamic models and their use in adaptive river basin management.

Studies of small scale irregularities in the cusp ionosphere using sounding rockets: recent results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicher, A.; Ilyasov, A. A.; Miloch, W. J.; Chernyshov, A. A.; Moen, J.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Saito, Y.

2017-12-01

Plasma irregularities occurring over many scale sizes are common in the ionosphere. Understanding and characterizing the phenomena responsible for these irregularities is not only important from a theoretical point of view, but also in the context of space weather, as the irregularities can disturb HF communication and Global Navigation Satellite Systems signals. Overall, research about the small-scale turbulence has not progressed as fast for polar regions as for the equatorial ones, and for the high latitude ionosphere there is still no agreement nor detailed explanation regarding the formation of irregularities. To investigate plasma structuring at small scales in the cusp ionosphere, we use high resolution measurements from the Investigation of Cusp Irregularities (ICI) sounding rockets, and investigate a region associated with density enhancements and a region characterized by flow shears. Using the ICI-2 electron density data, we give further evidence of the importance of the gradient drift instability for plasma structuring inside the polar cap. In particular, using higher-order statistics, we provide new insights into the nature of the resulting plasma structures and show that they are characterized by intermittency. Using the ICI-3 data, we show that the entire region associated with a reversed flow event (RFE), with the presence of meter-scale irregularities, several flow shears and particle precipitation, is highly structured. By performing a numerical stability analysis, we show that the inhomogeneous-energy-density-driven instability (IEDDI) may be active in relation to RFEs at the rocket's altitude. In particular, we show that the presence of particle precipitation decreases the growth rates of IEDDI and, using a Local Intermittency Measure, we observe a correlation between IEDDI growth rates and electric field fluctuations over several scales. These findings support the view that large-scale inhomogeneities may provide a background for the development of micro-scale instabilities. Such interplay between macro- and micro-processes might be an important mechanism for the development of small-scale plasma gradients, and as a source for ion heating in the cusp ionosphere.

Ocean Mixed Layer responses to intense meteorological events during HyMeX-SOP1 from a high-resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Bresson, Emilie; Ducrocq, Véronique; Giordani, Hervé; Nuret, Mathieu; Rainaud, Romain; Taupier-Letage, Isabelle

2014-12-01

The western Mediterranean Sea is a source of heat and humidity for the atmospheric low-levels in autumn. Large exchanges take place at the air-sea interface, especially during intense meteorological events, such as heavy precipitation and/or strong winds. The Ocean Mixed Layer (OML), which is quite thin at this time of year (∼ 20 m-depth), evolves rapidly under such intense fluxes. This study investigates the ocean responses under intense meteorological events that occurred during HyMeX SOP1 (5 September-6 November 2012). The OML conditions and tendencies are derived from a high-resolution ocean simulation using the sub-regional eddy-resolving NEMO-WMED36 model (1/36°-resolution), driven at the surface by hourly air-sea fluxes from the AROME-WMED forecasts (2.5 km-resolution). The high space-time resolution of the atmospheric forcing allows the highly variable surface fluxes, which induce rapid changes in the OML, to be well represented and linked to small-scale atmospheric processes. First, the simulation results are compared to ocean profiles from several platforms obtained during the campaign. Then, this study focuses on the short-term OML evolution during three events. In particular, we examine the OML cooling and mixing under strong wind events, potentially associated with upwelling, as well as the surface freshening under heavy precipitation events, producing low-salinity lenses. Tendencies demonstrate the major role of the surface forcing in the temperature and/or salinity anomaly formation. At the same time, mixing [restratification] rapidly occurs. As expected, the sign of this tendency term is very dependent on the local vertical stratification which varies at fine scale in the Mediterranean. It also controls [disables] the vertical propagation. In the Alboran Sea, the strong dynamics redistribute the OML anomalies, sometimes up to 7 days after their formation. Elsewhere, despite local amplitude modulations due to internal wave excitation by strong winds, the integrated effect of the horizontal advection is almost null on the anomalies' spread and decay. Finally, diffusion has a small contribution.

Separation and imaging diffractions by a sparsity-promoting model and subspace trust-region algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Caixia; Zhao, Jingtao; Wang, Yanfei; Wang, Chengxiang; Geng, Weifeng

2017-03-01

The small-scale geologic inhomogeneities or discontinuities, such as tiny faults, cavities or fractures, generally have spatial scales comparable to or even smaller than the seismic wavelength. Therefore, the seismic responses of these objects are coded in diffractions and an attempt to high-resolution imaging can be made if we can appropriately image them. As the amplitudes of reflections can be several orders of magnitude larger than those of diffractions, one of the key problems of diffraction imaging is to suppress reflections and at the same time to preserve diffractions. A sparsity-promoting method for separating diffractions in the common-offset domain is proposed that uses the Kirchhoff integral formula to enforce the sparsity of diffractions and the linear Radon transform to formulate reflections. A subspace trust-region algorithm that can provide globally convergent solutions is employed for solving this large-scale computation problem. The method not only allows for separation of diffractions in the case of interfering events but also ensures a high fidelity of the separated diffractions. Numerical experiment and field application demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method in imaging the small-scale geological features related to the migration channel and storage spaces of carbonate reservoirs.

Modern geomorphology in a post-glacial landscape and implications for river restoration, eastern Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minear, J. T.; Wright, S. A.; Roche, J. W.

2011-12-01

Yosemite National Park, USA, is one of the most popular national parks in the country with over 3.9 million visitors annually. The majority of tourists visit a relatively small area around the Merced River in scenic eastern Yosemite Valley, which has resulted in degradation to the river and streambanks. The National Park Service is updating the long-term management plan for the Merced River which includes river restoration. A key component determining the success of future river restoration efforts is the transport and supply of sediment. For this study, we investigate the modern geomorphology of the eastern Yosemite Valley region. For the watershed and reach analyses, we draw from a variety of topographic and hydrologic records, including 20-years of data from permanent cross sections, aerial and ground-based LiDAR surveys, and a nearly 100-year hydrologic record. In addition, we utilize hydraulic and sediment transport models to investigate channel velocities, bed shear stress and sediment transport at the reach scale. From the watershed-scale analysis, it is likely that large-scale remnant glacial features exert a primary control on the sediment supply to the study area with relatively small volumes of both suspended and bedload sediment being contributed to the study site. Two of the three major watersheds, Tenaya Creek and the upper Merced River, likely contribute only small amounts of bedload downstream due to low-gradient depositional reaches. Though little-known, the third major watershed, Illilouette Creek, is the only watershed capable of contributing larger amounts of bedload material, though the bedload material is likely contributed only during high flow events. High flows in the Yosemite Valley region have two different distributions: large early winter storm events above the 20-year return interval, and moderate snowmelt flows at and below the 20-year return interval. Sediment transport analyses indicate that bedload transport is dominated by relatively frequent (<2 year) snowmelt flow events and that the coarsest material in the reach (>110 mm) is mobile during these flows. The permanent cross sections record large topographic changes, including infilling at key bars, associated with the 1997 flood, the largest recorded early winter event (100-year return interval). Following snowmelt events post-1997, cross sections are returning to near pre-1997 levels. The cross section data suggest there is likely a disconnect between sediment supplied to the reach and sediment transport, with the majority of sediment supply occurring during large early winter events while the majority of sediment transport occurs during snowmelt events. An implication of our findings for river restoration in this area of the Merced River is that the ability of the channel to rebuild streambanks is relatively low, given the low suspended sediment supply. In contrast, bedload transport is relatively frequent and occurs in significant quantities, suggesting that river restoration involving bed recovery (e.g. recovery of pools formed by riprap or bridges) should be relatively rapid if obstructions are removed.

Moment Magnitudes and Local Magnitudes for Small Earthquakes: Implications for Ground-Motion Prediction and b-values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltay, A.; Hanks, T. C.; Vernon, F.

2016-12-01

We illustrate two essential consequences of the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude for small earthquakes, illuminating the underlying earthquake physics. Moment magnitude, M 2/3 log M0, is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes [Hanks and Kanamori, 1979]. However, the relationship between local magnitude ML and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, 3< M < 7, M and M­L are coincident; for earthquakes smaller than M3, ML log M0 [Hanks and Boore, 1984]. This is a consequence of the saturation of the apparent corner frequency fc as it becoming greater than the largest observable frequency, fmax; In this regime, stress drop no longer controls ground motion. This implies that ML and M differ by a factor of 1.5 for these small events. While this idea is not new, its implications are important as more small-magnitude data are incorporated into earthquake hazard research. With a large dataset of M<3 earthquakes recorded on the ANZA network, we demonstrate striking consequences of the difference between M and ML. ML scales as the log peak ground motions (e.g., PGA or PGV) for these small earthquakes, which yields log PGA log M0 [Boore, 1986]. We plot nearly 15,000 records of PGA and PGV at close stations, adjusted for site conditions and for geometrical spreading to 10 km. The slope of the log of ground motion is 1.0*ML­, or 1.5*M, confirming the relationship, and that fc >> fmax. Just as importantly, if this relation is overlooked, prediction of large-magnitude ground motion from small earthquakes will be misguided. We also consider the effect of this magnitude scale difference on b-value. The oft-cited b-value of 1 should hold for small magnitudes, given M. Use of ML necessitates b=2/3 for the same data set; use of mixed, or unknown, magnitudes complicates the matter further. This is of particular import when estimating the rate of large earthquakes when one has limited data on their recurrence, as is the case for induced earthquakes in the central US.

Planetary Scale Impacts and Consequences for the Mars Hemispheric Dichotomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinova, M. M.; Aharonson, O.; Asphaug, E.

2007-12-01

Planetary-scale impacts are events in which the resultant impact basin is a significant fraction of the planet's circumference. The curvature of the planet is expected to be important in the impact process, especially as it relates to the fate of downrange ejecta in off-axis events. Planetary-scale impacts are abundant in the Solar System, especially early in its evolution. A possible candidate planetary-scale impact basin is the Martian hemispheric dichotomy, expressed as a difference in surface elevation, crustal thickness, and surface age between the northern lowlands and the southern highlands. We investigate the characteristics of planetary-scale impacts, and in particular the effects of a mega impact on Mars. We use a 3 dimensional self-gravitational Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) model to simulate the impacts, implementing an olivine equation of state derived for the Tillotson formulation, and use this to establish the initial pressure and internal energy profile of the planet. The parameter space of impactor energy, impactor size, and impact velocity are explored for Mars hemispheric impacts. We find that for a given impact energy, head-on large but slow impacts produce more melt and cover more of the planet with melt than small, fast, and oblique events. Head-on impacts produce crustal blow-off and a melt pool at the antipode. Oblique impacts do not cover much of the planet with melt, but create sizable basins. Various degrees of crustal thickening are apparent around the crater over a length of ~1000 km; this crustal thickening could relax over geological time. Fast impacts eject material with escape velocity many times their own mass. In all cases, less than 10% of the impactor's mass is placed in orbit. For oblique events, a significant fraction of the angular momentum in the system is carried away by escaping material, limiting the efficiency of angular momentum transfer to the planet.

A note on conservative transport in anisotropic, heterogeneous porous media in the presence of small-amplitude transients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naff, R.L.

1998-01-01

The late-time macrodispersion coefficients are obtained for the case of flow in the presence of a small-scale deterministic transient in a three-dimensional anisotropic, heterogeneous medium. The transient is assumed to affect only the velocity component transverse to the mean flow direction and to take the form of a periodic function. For the case of a highly stratified medium, these late-time macrodispersion coefficients behave largely as the standard coefficients used in the transport equation. Only in the event that the medium is isotropic is it probable that significant deviations from the standard coefficients would occur.

Autonomous Detection of Eruptions, Plumes, and Other Transient Events in the Outer Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunte, M. K.; Lin, Y.; Saripalli, S.; Bell, J. F.

2012-12-01

The outer solar system abounds with visually stunning examples of dynamic processes such as eruptive events that jettison materials from satellites and small bodies into space. The most notable examples of such events are the prominent volcanic plumes of Io, the wispy water jets of Enceladus, and the outgassing of comet nuclei. We are investigating techniques that will allow a spacecraft to autonomously detect those events in visible images. This technique will allow future outer planet missions to conduct sustained event monitoring and automate prioritization of data for downlink. Our technique detects plumes by searching for concentrations of large local gradients in images. Applying a Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) to either raw or calibrated images identifies interest points for further investigation based on the magnitude and orientation of local gradients in pixel values. The interest points are classified as possible transient geophysical events when they share characteristics with similar features in user-classified images. A nearest neighbor classification scheme assesses the similarity of all interest points within a threshold Euclidean distance and classifies each according to the majority classification of other interest points. Thus, features marked by multiple interest points are more likely to be classified positively as events; isolated large plumes or multiple small jets are easily distinguished from a textured background surface due to the higher magnitude gradient of the plume or jet when compared with the small, randomly oriented gradients of the textured surface. We have applied this method to images of Io, Enceladus, and comet Hartley 2 from the Voyager, Galileo, New Horizons, Cassini, and Deep Impact EPOXI missions, where appropriate, and have successfully detected up to 95% of manually identifiable events that our method was able to distinguish from the background surface and surface features of a body. Dozens of distinct features are identifiable under a variety of viewing conditions and hundreds of detections are made in each of the aforementioned datasets. In this presentation, we explore the controlling factors in detecting transient events and discuss causes of success or failure due to distinct data characteristics. These include the level of calibration of images, the ability to differentiate an event from artifacts, and the variety of event appearances in user-classified images. Other important factors include the physical characteristics of the events themselves: albedo, size as a function of image resolution, and proximity to other events (as in the case of multiple small jets which feed into the overall plume at the south pole of Enceladus). A notable strength of this method is the ability to detect events that do not extend beyond the limb of a planetary body or are adjacent to the terminator or other strong edges in the image. The former scenario strongly influences the success rate of detecting eruptive events in nadir views.

A Small-Scale Flux Rope and its Associated CME and Shock.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, L.; Ying, B.; Lu, L.; Zhang, J.

2016-12-01

A magnetic flux rope (MFR) is thought be a key ingredient of a coronal mass ejection (CME). It has been extensively explored after the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission was launched. Previous studies are often concentrated on large-scale MFRs whose size are comparable to the active regions they reside. In this paper, we investigate the properties of a small-scale magnetic flux rope (SMFR) of a limb event observed by Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) . This SMFR originated from a very small and compact region at the edge of the active region and appeared mainly in the AIA 94 Å passband. It drove a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a type II burst was associated with the CME-driven shock. The type II burst started with a very high frequency. We obtain the compression ratio of the shock from the band splitting of the type II emissions and further derive the Alfvénic Mach number and the coronal magnetic field strength. On the other hand,we study the CME structure in LASCO coronagraph images and address its characteristics through measuring its mass and energy. Compared to the nature of the standard model of the CME, this CME triggered by the SMF are found to be different in some aspects.

Measurement of surface water runoff from plots of two different sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joel, Abraham; Messing, Ingmar; Seguel, Oscar; Casanova, Manuel

2002-05-01

Intensities and amounts of water infiltration and runoff on sloping land are governed by the rainfall pattern and soil hydraulic conductivity, as well as by the microtopography and soil surface conditions. These components are closely interrelated and occur simultaneously, and their particular contribution may change during a rainfall event, or their effects may vary at different field scales. The scale effect on the process of infiltration/runoff was studied under natural field and rainfall conditions for two plot sizes: small plots of 0·25 m2 and large plots of 50 m2. The measurements were carried out in the central region of Chile in a piedmont most recently used as natural pastureland. Three blocks, each having one large plot and five small plots, were established. Cumulative rainfall and runoff quantities were sampled every 5 min. Significant variations in runoff responses to rainfall rates were found for the two plot sizes. On average, large plots yielded only 40% of runoff quantities produced on small plots per unit area. This difference between plot sizes was observed even during periods of continuous runoff.

Fine grained event processing on HPCs with the ATLAS Yoda system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calafiura, Paolo; De, Kaushik; Guan, Wen; Maeno, Tadashi; Nilsson, Paul; Oleynik, Danila; Panitkin, Sergey; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Van Gemmeren, Peter; Wenaus, Torre

2015-12-01

High performance computing facilities present unique challenges and opportunities for HEP event processing. The massive scale of many HPC systems means that fractionally small utilization can yield large returns in processing throughput. Parallel applications which can dynamically and efficiently fill any scheduling opportunities the resource presents benefit both the facility (maximal utilization) and the (compute-limited) science. The ATLAS Yoda system provides this capability to HEP-like event processing applications by implementing event-level processing in an MPI-based master-client model that integrates seamlessly with the more broadly scoped ATLAS Event Service. Fine grained, event level work assignments are intelligently dispatched to parallel workers to sustain full utilization on all cores, with outputs streamed off to destination object stores in near real time with similarly fine granularity, such that processing can proceed until termination with full utilization. The system offers the efficiency and scheduling flexibility of preemption without requiring the application actually support or employ check-pointing. We will present the new Yoda system, its motivations, architecture, implementation, and applications in ATLAS data processing at several US HPC centers.

Scaling water and energy fluxes in climate systems - Three land-atmospheric modeling experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.; Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1993-01-01

Three numerical experiments that investigate the scaling of land-surface processes - either of the inputs or parameters - are reported, and the aggregated processes are compared to the spatially variable case. The first is the aggregation of the hydrologic response in a catchment due to rainfall during a storm event and due to evaporative demands during interstorm periods. The second is the spatial and temporal aggregation of latent heat fluxes, as calculated from SiB. The third is the aggregation of remotely sensed land vegetation and latent and sensible heat fluxes using TM data from the FIFE experiment of 1987 in Kansas. In all three experiments it was found that the surface fluxes and land characteristics can be scaled, and that macroscale models based on effective parameters are sufficient to account for the small-scale heterogeneities investigated.

A tiny event producing an interplanetary type III burst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alissandrakis, C. E.; Nindos, A.; Patsourakos, S.; Kontogeorgos, A.; Tsitsipis, P.

2015-10-01

Aims: We investigate the conditions under which small-scale energy release events in the low corona gave rise to strong interplanetary (IP) type III bursts. Methods: We analyzed observations of three tiny events, detected by the Nançay Radio Heliograph (NRH), two of which produced IP type III bursts. We took advantage of the NRH positioning information and of the high cadence of AIA/SDO data to identify the associated extreme-UV (EUV) emissions. We measured positions and time profiles of the metric and EUV sources. Results: We found that the EUV events that produced IP type III bursts were located near a coronal hole boundary, while the one that did not was located in a closed magnetic field region. In all three cases tiny flaring loops were involved, without any associated mass eruption. In the best observed case, the radio emission at the highest frequency (435 MHz) was displaced by ~55'' with respect to the small flaring loop. The metric type III emission shows a complex structure in space and in time, indicative of multiple electron beams, despite the low intensity of the events. From the combined analysis of dynamic spectra and NRH images, we derived the electron beam velocity as well as the height, ambient plasma temperature, and density at the level of formation of the 160 MHz emission. From the analysis of the differential emission measure derived from the AIA images, we found that the first evidence of energy release was at the footpoints, and this was followed by the development of flaring loops and subsequent cooling. Conclusions: Even small energy release events can accelerate enough electrons to give rise to powerful IP type III bursts. The proximity of the electron acceleration site to open magnetic field lines facilitates the escape of the electrons into the interplanetary space. The offset between the site of energy release and the metric type III location warrants further investigation. The movie is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Strain localisation in the continental lithosphere, a scale-dependent process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Laurent; Burov, Evguenii

2013-04-01

Strain localisation in continents is a general question tackled by specialists of various disciplines in Earth Sciences. Field geologists working at regional scale are able to describe the succession of events leading to the formation of large strain zones that accommodate large displacement within plate boundaries. On the other end of the spectrum, laboratory experiments provide numbers that quantitatively describe the rheology of rock material at the scale of a few mm and at deformation rates up to 8-10 orders of magnitude faster than in nature. Extrapolating from the scale of the experiment to the scale of the continental lithosphere is a considerable leap across 8-10 orders of magnitude both in space and time. It is however quite obvious that different processes are at work for each scale considered. At the scale of a grain aggregate diffusion within individual grains, dislocation or grain boundary sliding, depending on temperature and fluid conditions, are of primary importance. But at the scale of a mountain belt, a major detachment or a strike-slip shear zone that have accommodated tens or hundreds of kilometres of relative displacement, other parameters will take over such as structural softening and the heterogeneity of the crust inherited from past tectonic events that have juxtaposed rock units of very different compositions and induced a strong orientation of rocks. Once the deformation is localised along major shear zones, grain size reduction, interaction between rocks and fluids and metamorphic reactions and other small-scale processes tend to further localise the strain. Because the crust is colder and more lithologically complex this heterogeneity is likely much more prominent in the crust than in the mantle and then the relative importance of "small-scale" and "large-scale" parameters will be very different in the crust and in the mantle. Thus, depending upon the relative thickness of the crust and mantle in the deforming lithosphere, the role of each mechanism will have more or less important consequences on strain localisation. This complexity sometimes leads to disregard of experimental parameters in large-scale thermo-mechanical models and to use instead ad hoc "large-scale" numbers that better fit the observed geological history. The goal of the ERC RHEOLITH project is to associate to each tectonic process the relevant rheological parameters depending upon the scale considered, in an attempt to elaborate a generalized "Preliminary Rheology Model Set for Lithosphere" (PReMSL), which will cover the entire time and spatial scale range of deformation.

Analysis of streamflow distribution of non-point source nitrogen export from long-term urban-rural catchments to guide watershed management in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, J. M.; Band, L. E.; Groffman, P.

2017-12-01

Discharge, land use, and watershed management practices (stream restoration and stormwater control measures) have been found to be important determinants of nitrogen (N) export to receiving waters. We used long-term water quality stations from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study Long-Term Ecological Research (BES LTER) Site to quantify nitrogen export across streamflow conditions at the small watershed scale. We calculated nitrate and total nitrogen fluxes using methodology that allows for changes over time; weighted regressions on time, discharge, and seasonality. Here we tested the hypotheses that a) while the largest N stream fluxes occur during storm events, there is not a clear relationship between N flux and discharge and b) N export patterns are aseasonal in developed watersheds where sources are larger and retention capacity is lower. The goal is to scale understanding from small watersheds to larger ones. Developing a better understanding of hydrologic controls on nitrogen export is essential for successful adaptive watershed management at societally meaningful spatial scales.

Small-scale plasma irregularities in the nightside Venus ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebowsky, J. M.; Curtis, S. A.; Brace, L. H.

1991-12-01

The individual volt-ampere curves from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter electron temperature probe showed evidence for small-scale density irregularities, or short-period plasma waves, in regions of the nightside ionosphere where the Orbiter electric field detector observed waves in its 100-Hz channel. A survey of the nightside volt-ampere curves has revealed several hundred examples of such irregularities. The I-V structures correspond to plasma density structure with spatial scale sizes in the range of about 100-2000 m, or alternatively they could be viewed as waves having frequencies extending toward 100 Hz. They are often seen as isolated events, with spatial extent along the orbit frequently less than 80 km. The density irregularities or waves occur in or near prominent gradients in the ambient plasma concentrations both at low altitudes where molecular ions are dominant and at higher altitudes in regions of reduced plasma density where O(+) is the major ion. Electric field 100-Hz bursts occur simultaneously, with the majority of the structured I-V curves providing demonstrative evidence that at least some of the E field signals are produced within the ionosphere.

A study of large, medium and small scale structures in the topside ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Stanley H.; Kuo, Spencer P.; Shmoys, Jerry

1986-01-01

Alouette and ISIS data were studied for large, medium, and small scale structures in the ionosphere. Correlation was also sought with measurements by other satellites, such as the Atmosphere Explorer C and E and the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellites, of both neutrals and ionization, and with measurements by ground facilities, such as the incoherent scatter radars. Large scale coherent wavelike structures were found from ISIS 2 electron density contours from above the F peak to nearly the satellite altitude. Such structures were also found to correlate with the observation by AE-C below the F peak during a conjunction of the two satellites. Vertical wavefronts found in the upper F region suggest the dominance of diffusion along field lines as well. Also discovered were multiple, evenly spaced field-aligned ducts in the F region that, at low latitudes, extended to the other hemisphere and were in the form of field-aligned sheets in the east-west direction. Low latitude heating events were discovered that could serve as sources for waves in the ionosphere.

Using Volcanic Lightning Measurements to Discern Variations in Explosive Volcanic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behnke, S. A.; Thomas, R. J.; McNutt, S. R.; Edens, H. E.; Krehbiel, P. R.; Rison, W.

2013-12-01

VHF observations of volcanic lightning have been made during the recent eruptions of Augustine Volcano (2006, Alaska, USA), Redoubt Volcano (2009, Alaska, USA), and Eyjafjallajökull (2010, Iceland). These show that electrical activity occurs both on small scales at the vent of the volcano, concurrent with an eruptive event and on large scales throughout the eruption column during and subsequent to an eruptive event. The small-scale discharges at the vent of the volcano are often referred to as 'vent discharges' and are on the order of 10-100 meters in length and occur at rates on the order of 1000 per second. The high rate of vent discharges produces a distinct VHF signature that is sometimes referred to as 'continuous RF' radiation. VHF radiation from vent discharges has been observed at sensors placed as far as 100 km from the volcano. VHF and infrasound measurements have shown that vent discharges occur simultaneously with the onset of eruption, making their detection an unambiguous indicator of explosive volcanic activity. The fact that vent discharges are observed concurrent with explosive volcanic activity indicates that volcanic ejecta are charged upon eruption. VHF observations have shown that the intensity of vent discharges varies between eruptive events, suggesting that fluctuations in eruptive processes affect the electrification processes giving rise to vent discharges. These fluctuations may be variations in eruptive vigor or variations in the type of eruption; however, the data obtained so far do not show a clear relationship between eruption parameters and the intensity or occurrence of vent discharges. Further study is needed to clarify the link between vent discharges and eruptive behavior, such as more detailed lightning observations concurrent with tephra measurements and other measures of eruptive strength. Observations of vent discharges, and volcanic lightning observations in general, are a valuable tool for volcano monitoring, providing a method for rapid detection of volcanic activity in real-time.

The deadliest storm of the 20th century striking Portugal: Flood impacts and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Catarina; Pereira, Susana S.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Zêzere, José L.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2016-10-01

The deadliest storm affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities. This work aims to assess the most relevant aspects of this episode. This includes describing the associated meteorological conditions and key hydrological characterisation such as the level of exceptionality of the observed precipitation at different temporal scales, or the estimation of peak discharge values in 20 small river catchments affected. Additionally, from a human impact perspective we provide a full account of all the main socio-economic impacts, particularly the numbers and location of victims (dead, injured, homeless and evacuated). Based on the sub-daily time series of a representative station, and its Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, we have found that the exceptionality of this rainfall event is particularly linked to rainfall intensities ranging in duration from 4 to 9 h compatible with return periods of 100-years or more. This range of time scale which are similar to the estimated concentration time values of the hydrographic basins affected by the flash flood event. From a meteorological perspective, this episode was characterised by strong convection at the regional scale, fuelled by high availability of moisture over the Lisbon region associated with a low pressure system centered near Lisbon that favoured the convective instability. Most victims were sleeping or were caught by surprise at home in the small river catchments around the main Lisbon metropolitan area. The majority of people who died or who were severely affected by the flood lived in degraded housing conditions often raised in a clandestine way, occupying flood plains near the stream beds. This level of destruction observed at the time is in stark contrast to what was observed in subsequent episodes of similar amplitude. In particular, since 1967 the Lisbon area, was struck by two comparable intense precipitation events in 1983 and 2008 but generating considerably fewer deaths and evacuated people.

Development of a flash flood warning system based on real-time radar data and process-based erosion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholtz, Arno; Schmidt, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events and resulting flash floods led to massive devastations in Germany during spring 2016. The study presented aims on the development of a early warning system, which allows the simulation and assessment of negative effects on infrastructure by radar-based heavy rainfall predictions, serving as input data for the process-based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D. Our approach enables a detailed identification of runoff and sediment fluxes in agricultural used landscapes. In a first step, documented historical events were analyzed concerning the accordance of measured radar rainfall and large scale erosion risk maps. A second step focused on a small scale erosion monitoring via UAV of source areas of heavy flooding events and a model reconstruction of the processes involved. In all examples damages were caused to local infrastructure. Both analyses are promising in order to detect runoff and sediment delivering areas even in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Results prove the important role of late-covering crops such as maize, sugar beet or potatoes in runoff generation. While e.g. winter wheat positively affects extensive runoff generation on undulating landscapes, massive soil loss and thus muddy flows are observed and depicted in model results. Future research aims on large scale model parameterization and application in real time, uncertainty estimation of precipitation forecast and interface developments.

Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roda, Manuel; Kleinhans, Maarten G.; Zegers, Tanja E.; Oosthoek, Jelmer H. P.

2014-07-01

Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with the 2.5 Ga stage of the Ares Vallis formation. The water volume and formative time scale required to carve the Aram channels indicate that a single, rapid (maximum tens of days) and catastrophic (flood volume of 9.3 × 104 km3) event carved the outflow channel. We conclude that a sub-ice lake collapse model can best explain the features of the Aram Chaos Valley system as well as the time scale required for its formation.

Regional Magnitude Research Supporting Broad-Area Monitoring of Small Seismic Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

detonated at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS). Observations for both test sites show that Pn amplitudes yield scale 10...identification procedures, and yield, via direct comparison to test site results for high frequencies (>1 Hz). Coda techniques are known to be effective...2006). Source spectral modeling of regional P/S discriminants at nuclear test sites in China and the former Soviet Union, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am

Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

2007-08-01

The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined critical point. We find that the number of system-wide events NSWE satisfies the scaling relation NSWE ∝(α-αC)δ where αC is the critical value of the stiffness. The system-wide events represent a new phase for the slider-block system.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Rain Characteristics and Large-Scale Environments of Precipitation Objects with Extreme Rain Volumes from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K M.; Liu, Chuntao

2013-01-01

This study adopts a "precipitation object" approach by using 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Feature (PF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to study rainfall structure and environmental factors associated with extreme heavy rain events. Characteristics of instantaneous extreme volumetric PFs are examined and compared to those of intermediate and small systems. It is found that instantaneous PFs exhibit a much wider scale range compared to the daily gridded precipitation accumulation range. The top 1% of the rainiest PFs contribute over 55% of total rainfall and have 2 orders of rain volume magnitude greater than those of the median PFs. We find a threshold near the top 10% beyond which the PFs grow exponentially into larger, deeper, and colder rain systems. NCEP reanalyses show that midlevel relative humidity and total precipitable water increase steadily with increasingly larger PFs, along with a rapid increase of 500 hPa upward vertical velocity beyond the top 10%. This provides the necessary moisture convergence to amplify and sustain the extreme events. The rapid increase in vertical motion is associated with the release of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in mature systems, as is evident in the increase in CAPE of PFs up to 10% and the subsequent dropoff. The study illustrates distinct stages in the development of an extreme rainfall event including: (1) a systematic buildup in large-scale temperature and moisture, (2) a rapid change in rain structure, (3) explosive growth of the PF size, and (4) a release of CAPE before the demise of the event.

Microearthquake spectra from the Anza, California, seismic network: site response and source scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Wennerberg, Leif

1989-01-01

We analyzed spectra of local microearthquakes recorded by the Anza, California, seismic network to isolate the effects of site response and to investigate the scaling of source parameters for small earthquakes. Spectra of microearthquakes (M < 2; Mo< 1019 dyne-cm) at Anza have shapes characteristic of the receiver sites and are generally independent of the source region. Thus, the site response is a major conditioner of the observed spectral shape. To remove the effects of site response from the spectra of a M ∼ 3 event and isolate its source spectrum, we divided by the spectra of an adjacent aftershock used as an empirical Green's function event. The spectral ratios indicate that the apparent corner frequencies of small earthquakes (Mo < 1019dyne-cm) observed at even the high-fmax stations on hard rock are much lower than the source corner frequencies. The spectral ratios are consistent with stress drop remaining constant with decreasing seismic moment, for events with moments as small as 1018 dyne-cm. The spectral ratios display remarkable agreement between sites which showed vast differences in their original spectra, indicating that the spectral division effectively removed the site response. The source spectrum of the M ∼ 3 event has a high-frequency spectral fall-off of about ω−2. An apparent dependence of high-frequency fall-off with seismic moment in the original spectra can also be explained by the effects of site response. The difference between the P- and S-wave corner frequencies and high-frequency roll-offs in the observed spectra for these events is the result of the site response and is not a source property. The shapes of the spectra of microearthquakes at Anza can largely be explained by attenuation at shallow depth with a frequency-independent Q. For some sites, near-surface resonances are also apparent in the spectra of microearthquakes. It is indicated by t* values determined for each site that Qp ∼ Qsfor the shallow low-Q layer. Further evidence of low near-surface Q is observed in the anomalous spectra of an unusually shallow earthquake (source depth ∼ 1 km) in the network. The spectra from this shallow event are depleted in high-frequency energy at most stations, relative to those of deeper events. This observation can be explained by a low-Q surficial zone. For stations of the network situated on alluvium, this low-Q layer has a maximum thickness of about 3 km and maximum P- and S-wave Q values of 30 to 50.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolotnikov, A. E.; Camarda, G. S.; Cui, Y.

Following our successful demonstration of the position-sensitive virtual Frisch-grid detectors, we investigated the feasibility of using high-granularity position sensing to correct response non-uniformities caused by the crystal defects in CdZnTe (CZT) pixelated detectors. The development of high-granularity detectors able to correct response non-uniformities on a scale comparable to the size of electron clouds opens the opportunity of using unselected off-the-shelf CZT material, whilst still assuring high spectral resolution for the majority of the detectors fabricated from an ingot. Here, we present the results from testing 3D position-sensitive 15×15×10 mm 3 pixelated detectors, fabricated with conventional pixel patterns with progressively smallermore » pixel sizes: 1.4, 0.8, and 0.5 mm. We employed the readout system based on the H3D front-end multi-channel ASIC developed by BNL's Instrumentation Division in collaboration with the University of Michigan. We use the sharing of electron clouds among several adjacent pixels to measure locations of interaction points with sub-pixel resolution. By using the detectors with small-pixel sizes and a high probability of the charge-sharing events, we were able to improve their spectral resolutions in comparison to the baseline levels, measured for the 1.4-mm pixel size detectors with small fractions of charge-sharing events. These results demonstrate that further enhancement of the performance of CZT pixelated detectors and reduction of costs are possible by using high spatial-resolution position information of interaction points to correct the small-scale response non-uniformities caused by crystal defects present in most devices.« less

Onset of a Large Ejective Solar Eruption from a Typical Coronal-jet-base Field Configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Navin Chandra; Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Magara, Tetsuya; Moon, Yong-Jae

2017-08-01

Utilizing multiwavelength observations and magnetic field data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and RHESSI, we investigate a large-scale ejective solar eruption of 2014 December 18 from active region NOAA 12241. This event produced a distinctive “three-ribbon” flare, having two parallel ribbons corresponding to the ribbons of a standard two-ribbon flare, and a larger-scale third quasi-circular ribbon offset from the other two. There are two components to this eruptive event. First, a flux rope forms above a strong-field polarity inversion line and erupts and grows as the parallel ribbons turn on, grow, and spread apart from that polarity inversion line; this evolution is consistent with the mechanism of tether-cutting reconnection for eruptions. Second, the eruption of the arcade that has the erupting flux rope in its core undergoes magnetic reconnection at the null point of a fan dome that envelops the erupting arcade, resulting in formation of the quasi-circular ribbon; this is consistent with the breakout reconnection mechanism for eruptions. We find that the parallel ribbons begin well before (˜12 minutes) the onset of the circular ribbon, indicating that tether-cutting reconnection (or a non-ideal MHD instability) initiated this event, rather than breakout reconnection. The overall setup for this large-scale eruption (diameter of the circular ribbon ˜105 km) is analogous to that of coronal jets (base size ˜104 km), many of which, according to recent findings, result from eruptions of small-scale “minifilaments.” Thus these findings confirm that eruptions of sheared-core magnetic arcades seated in fan-spine null-point magnetic topology happen on a wide range of size scales on the Sun.

PBX 9502 Gas Generation Progress Report FY17

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holmes, Matthew David; Erickson, Michael Andrew Englert

The self-ignition (“cookoff”) behavior of PBX 9502 depends on the dynamic evolution of gas permeability and physical damage in the material. The time-resolved measurement of product gas generation yields insight regarding the crucial properties that dominate cookoff behavior. We report on small-scale laboratory testing performed in FY17, in which small unconfined samples of PBX 9502 were heated in a small custom-built sealed pressure vessel to self-ignition. We recorded time-lapse video of the evolving physical changes in the sample, quasi-static long-duration pressure rise, then high-speed video and dynamic pressure rise of the cookoff event. We report the full pressure attained duringmore » the cookoff of a 1.02g sample in a free volume of 62.5 cm 3.« less

Snow fracture: From micro-cracking to global failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capelli, Achille; Reiweger, Ingrid; Schweizer, Jürg

2017-04-01

Slab avalanches are caused by a crack forming and propagating in a weak layer within the snow cover, which eventually causes the detachment of the overlying cohesive slab. The gradual damage process leading to the nucleation of the initial failure is still not entirely understood. Therefore, we studied the damage process preceding snow failure by analyzing the acoustic emissions (AE) generated by bond failure or micro-cracking. The AE allow studying the ongoing progressive failure in a non-destructive way. We performed fully load-controlled failure experiments on snow samples presenting a weak layer and recorded the generated AE. The size and frequency of the generated AE increased before failure revealing an acceleration of the damage process with increased size and frequency of damage and/or microscopic cracks. The AE energy was power-law distributed and the exponent (b-value) decreased approaching failure. The waiting time followed an exponential distribution with increasing exponential coefficient λ before failure. The decrease of the b-value and the increase of λ correspond to a change in the event distribution statistics indicating a transition from homogeneously distributed uncorrelated damage producing mostly small AE to localized damage, which cause larger correlated events which leads to brittle failure. We observed brittle failure for the fast experiment and a more ductile behavior for the slow experiments. This rate dependence was reflected also in the AE signature. In the slow experiments the b value and λ were almost constant, and the energy rate increase was moderate indicating that the damage process was in a stable state - suggesting the damage and healing processes to be balanced. On a shorter time scale, however, the AE parameters varied indicating that the damage process was not steady but consisted of a sum of small bursts. We assume that the bursts may have been generated by cascades of correlated micro-cracks caused by localization of stresses at a small scale. The healing process may then have prevented the self-organization of this small scale damage and, therefore, the total failure of the sample.

Spatial structure and scaling of macropores in hydrological process at small catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silasari, Rasmiaditya; Broer, Martine; Blöschl, Günter

2013-04-01

During rainfall events, the formation of overland flow can occur under the circumstances of saturation excess and/or infiltration excess. These conditions are affected by the soil moisture state which represents the soil water content in micropores and macropores. Macropores act as pathway for the preferential flows and have been widely studied locally. However, very little is known about their spatial structure and conductivity of macropores and other flow characteristic at the catchment scale. This study will analyze these characteristics to better understand its importance in hydrological processes. The research will be conducted in Petzenkirchen Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a 64 ha catchment located 100 km west of Vienna. The land use is divided between arable land (87%), pasture (5%), forest (6%) and paved surfaces (2%). Video cameras will be installed on an agricultural field to monitor the overland flow pattern during rainfall events. A wireless soil moisture network is also installed within the monitored area. These field data will be combined to analyze the soil moisture state and the responding surface runoff occurrence. The variability of the macropores spatial structure of the observed area (field scale) then will be assessed based on the topography and soil data. Soil characteristics will be supported with laboratory experiments on soil matrix flow to obtain proper definitions of the spatial structure of macropores and its variability. A coupled physically based distributed model of surface and subsurface flow will be used to simulate the variability of macropores spatial structure and its effect on the flow behaviour. This model will be validated by simulating the observed rainfall events. Upscaling from field scale to catchment scale will be done to understand the effect of macropores variability on larger scales by applying spatial stochastic methods. The first phase in this study is the installation and monitoring configuration of video cameras and soil moisture monitoring equipment to obtain the initial data of overland flow occurrence and soil moisture state relationships.

Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plank, C.

2013-12-01

Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than northern watersheds. However, the relative magnitudes of 100-year and other large floods are higher in the coastal plain rivers. In the transition zone between northern and southern watersheds, basins like the Potomac in the Mid-Atlantic region have similar scaling exponents as northern river basins, but relative flood magnitudes comparable to the southern coastal plain watersheds. These differences reflect variations in both geologic/geomorphic and climatic settings. Understanding these variations are important to appropriately using these relationships to improve flood risk models and analyses.

Small-scale spatial variation in near-surface turbidites around the JFAST site near the Japan Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, Shuro; Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Kasaya, Takafumi

2016-03-01

This paper aims to improve our understanding of the depositional processes associated with turbidites related to recent earthquake events. A series of short sediment cores (ca. 20-30 cm long) were recovered from the landward slope of the Japan Trench around JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) site C0019 by a remotely operated vehicle, KAIKO 7000 II, and the sample sites were accurately located using an LBL (long base line) acoustic navigation system. The properties of the cores were analyzed using visual observations, soft X-ray radiographs, smear slides, measurement of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, and analysis of radioactive elements (134Cs, 137Cs, and excess 210Pb). For the first time, small-scale (ca. 200-1000 m) spatial variations in recent earthquake-triggered deep-sea turbidites, the formation of which was probably linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, are described. We also examine the submarine landslide that probably generated the sediment unit below the turbidites, which is thought to be an important process in the study area. The spatial distribution and characteristics of the near-surface seismoturbidite obtained immediately after the earthquake, presented here, will enable precise calibration of offshore evidence of recent earthquakes, and thus facilitate the use of the sedimentary archive for paleoseismic interpretations. Furthermore, although sampling for turbidite seismology on steep slopes has not been widely performed previously, our results suggest that the recent event deposits may be continuously tracked from the slope to the basin using a combination of the present sampling method and conventional large-scale investigation techniques.

The Occurrence of Small-scale Irregularities in the Mid-latitude Ionosphere from SuperDARN HF Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Baker, J. B.; Maimaiti, M.; Oksavik, K.; Erickson, P. J.; Scales, W.; Eltrass, A.

2017-12-01

The mid-latitude radars of the SuperDARN network routinely observe backscatter from nighttime decameter-scale F region irregularities at latitudes well equatorward of the auroral boundary. This Sub-Auroral Ionospheric Scatter (SAIS) is strongly distinguished from auroral and SAPS backscatter by low Doppler velocities ( tens m/s) and stable, long-lived ( hours) occurrence in discrete events that are extended in both latitude and longitude. Statistical and event studies of SAIS with the SuperDARN radars indicate that the subauroral F region ionosphere is replete with irregularities during events, at least poleward of the 50° Λ horizon of the North American mid-latitude radars, and that radar observation of SAIS backscatter is then primarily limited by the magnetic aspect condition. Joint experiments with incoherent scatter radar have furnished sets of plasma measurements suitable for testing theories of plasma instability. Modeling work stimulated by the observations has explored the temperature-gradient instability (TGI) and the gradient drift instability (GDI) as possible sources of the irregularities. In this talk we review the findings on the occurrence of the SAIS category of mid-latitude F region irregularities, summarize the results of the modeling work, and discuss future research directions.

Thermal Fluxes and Temperatures in Small Urban Headwater Streams of the BES LTER: Landscape Forest and Impervious Patches and the Importance of Spatial and Temporal Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Belt, K. T.; Welty, C.; Heisler, G.; Pouyat, R. V.; McGuire, M. P.; Stack, W. P.

2006-05-01

Water and material fluxes from urban landscape patches to small streams are modulated by extensive "engineered" drainage networks. Small urban headwater catchments are different in character and function from their larger receiving streams because of their extensive, direct connections to impervious surface cover (ISC) and their sometimes buried nature. They need to be studied as unique functional hydrologic units if impacts on biota are to be fully understood. As part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER project, continuous water temperature data are being collected at 2-minute intervals at over twenty small catchments representing various mixtures of forest and ISC. Suburban stream sites with greater ISC generally have higher summer water temperatures. Suburban catchments with most of their channel drainage contained within storm drain pipes show subdued diurnal variation and cool temperatures, but with very large spikes in summer runoff events. Conversely, high ISC urban piped streams have elevated "baseline" temperatures that stand well above all the other monitoring sites. There is a pronounced upstream-downstream effect; nested small headwater catchments experience more frequent, larger temperature spikes related to runoff events than downstream sites. Also, runoff-initiated temperature elevations at small stream sites unexpectedly last much longer than the storm runoff hydrographs. These observations suggest that for small headwater catchments, urban landscapes not only induce an ambient, "heat island" effect on stream temperatures, but also introduce thermal disturbance regimes and fluxes that are not trivial to aquatic biota.

Improving the nowcasting of precipitation in an Alpine region with an enhanced radar echo tracking algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecklenburg, S.; Joss, J.; Schmid, W.

2000-12-01

Nowcasting for hydrological applications is discussed. The tracking algorithm extrapolates radar images in space and time. It originates from the pattern recognition techniques TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation, Rinehart and Garvey, J. Appl. Meteor., 34 (1995) 1286) and COTREC (Continuity of TREC vectors, Li et al., Nature, 273 (1978) 287). To evaluate the quality of the extrapolation, a parameter scheme is introduced, able to distinguish between errors in the position and the intensity of the predicted precipitation. The parameters for the position are the absolute error, the relative error and the error of the forecasted direction. The parameters for the intensity are the ratio of the medians and the variations of the rain rate (ratio of two quantiles) between the actual and the forecasted image. To judge the overall quality of the forecast, the correlation coefficient between the forecasted and the actual radar image has been used. To improve the forecast, three aspects have been investigated: (a) Common meteorological attributes of convective cells, derived from a hail statistics, have been determined to optimize the parameters of the tracking algorithm. Using (a), the forecast procedure modifications (b) and (c) have been applied. (b) Small-scale features have been removed by using larger tracking areas and by applying a spatial and temporal smoothing, since problems with the tracking algorithm are mainly caused by small-scale/short-term variations of the echo pattern or because of limitations caused by the radar technique itself (erroneous vectors caused by clutter or shielding). (c) The searching area and the number of searched boxes have been restricted. This limits false detections, which is especially useful in stratiform precipitation and for stationary echoes. Whereas a larger scale and the removal of small-scale features improve the forecasted position for the convective precipitation, the forecast of the stratiform event is not influenced, but limiting the search area leads to a slightly better forecast. The forecast of the intensity is successful for both precipitation events. Forecasting the variation of the rain rate calls for further investigation. Applying COTREC improves the forecast of the convective precipitation, especially for extrapolation times exceeding 30 min.

Earthquakes in the Laboratory: Continuum-Granular Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecke, Robert; Geller, Drew; Ward, Carl; Backhaus, Scott

2013-03-01

Earthquakes in nature feature large tectonic plate motion at large scales of 10-100 km and local properties of the earth on the scale of the rupture width, of the order of meters. Fault gouge often fills the gap between the large slipping plates and may play an important role in the nature and dynamics of earthquake events. We have constructed a laboratory scale experiment that represents a similitude scale model of this general earthquake description. Two photo-elastic plates (50 cm x 25 cm x 1 cm) confine approximately 3000 bi-disperse nylon rods (diameters 0.12 and 0.16 cm, height 1 cm) in a gap of approximately 1 cm. The plates are held rigidly along their outer edges with one held fixed while the other edge is driven at constant speed over a range of about 5 cm. The local stresses exerted on the plates are measured using their photo-elastic response, the local relative motions of the plates, i.e., the local strains, are determined by the relative motion of small ball bearings attached to the top surface, and the configurations of the nylon rods are investigated using particle tracking tools. We find that this system has properties similar to real earthquakes and are exploring these ``lab-quake'' events with the quantitative tools we have developed.

Convective Troposphere-Stratosphere Transport in the Tropics and Hydration by ice Crystals Geysers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pommereau, J.

2008-12-01

Twenty-five years ago the suggestion was made by Danielsen of direct fast convective penetration of tropospheric air in the stratosphere over land convective systems. Although the existence of the mechanism is accepted, it was thought to be rare and thus its contribution to Troposphere-Stratosphere Transport (TST) of chemical species and water vapour at global scale unimportant at global scale. In contrast to this assumption, observations of temperature, water vapour, ice particles, long-lived tropospheric species during HIBISCUS, TROCCINOX and SCOUT-O3 over Brazil, Australia and Africa and more recently CALIPSO aerosols observations suggest that it is a general feature of tropical land convective regions in the summer. Particularly relevant to stratospheric water vapour is the observation of geyser like ice crystals in the TTL over overshooting events which may result in the moistening of the stratosphere. Although such events successfully captured by small scale Cloud-Resolving Models may have a significant impact on stratospheric ozone chemistry and climate, they are currently totally ignored by NWPs, CTMs and CCMs. Several recent balloon and aircraft observations of overshoots and CRM simulations will be shown illustrating the mechanism, as well as observations from a variety of satellites suggesting a significant impact at global scale.

Distribution and solar wind control of compressional solar wind-magnetic anomaly interactions observed at the Moon by ARTEMIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halekas, J. S.; Poppe, A. R.; Lue, C.; Farrell, W. M.; McFadden, J. P.

2017-06-01

A statistical investigation of 5 years of observations from the two-probe Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission reveals that strong compressional interactions occur infrequently at high altitudes near the ecliptic but can form in a wide range of solar wind conditions and can occur up to two lunar radii downstream from the lunar limb. The compressional events, some of which may represent small-scale collisionless shocks ("limb shocks"), occur in both steady and variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, with those forming in steady IMF well organized by the location of lunar remanent crustal magnetization. The events observed by ARTEMIS have similarities to ion foreshock phenomena, and those observed in variable IMF conditions may result from either local lunar interactions or distant terrestrial foreshock interactions. Observed velocity deflections associated with compressional events are always outward from the lunar wake, regardless of location and solar wind conditions. However, events for which the observed velocity deflection is parallel to the upstream motional electric field form in distinctly different solar wind conditions and locations than events with antiparallel deflections. Consideration of the momentum transfer between incoming and reflected solar wind populations helps explain the observed characteristics of the different groups of events.