Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over the headwater catchments in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Jun; Chen, Ji; Wang, Keyi; Sivakumar, Bellie

2017-08-01

This paper examines the multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over 16 headwater catchments in the Pearl River basin, South China. The long-term daily streamflow data (1952-2000), obtained using a macro-scale hydrological model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a routing scheme, are studied. Temporal features of streamflow variability at 10 different timescales, ranging from 6 days to 8.4 years, are revealed with the Haar wavelet transform. The principal component analysis (PCA) is performed to categorize the headwater catchments with the coherent modes of multi-scale wavelet spectra. The results indicate that three distinct modes, with different variability distributions at small timescales and seasonal scales, can explain 95% of the streamflow variability. A large majority of the catchments (i.e. 12 out of 16) exhibit consistent mode feature on multi-scale variability throughout three sub-periods (1952-1968, 1969-1984, and 1985-2000). The multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation are identified to be associated with the regional flood and drought tendency over the headwater catchments in southern China.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-07-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

A SYSTEMATIC SEARCH FOR COROTATING INTERACTION REGIONS IN APPARENTLY SINGLE GALACTIC WOLF-RAYET STARS. II. A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE WIND VARIABILITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chene, A.-N.; St-Louis, N., E-mail: achene@astro-udec.cl, E-mail: stlouis@astro.umontreal.ca

This study is the second part of a survey searching for large-scale spectroscopic variability in apparently single Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars. In a previous paper (Paper I), we described and characterized the spectroscopic variability level of 25 WR stars observable from the northern hemisphere and found 3 new candidates presenting large-scale wind variability, potentially originating from large-scale structures named corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In this second paper, we discuss an additional 39 stars observable from the southern hemisphere. For each star in our sample, we obtained 4-5 high-resolution spectra with a signal-to-noise ratio of {approx}100 and determined its variability level usingmore » the approach described in Paper I. In total, 10 new stars are found to show large-scale spectral variability of which 7 present CIR-type changes (WR 8, WR 44, WR55, WR 58, WR 61, WR 63, WR 100). Of the remaining stars, 20 were found to show small-amplitude changes and 9 were found to show no spectral variability as far as can be concluded from the data on hand. Also, we discuss the spectroscopic variability level of all single galactic WR stars that are brighter than v {approx} 12.5, and some WR stars with 12.5 < v {<=} 13.5, i.e., all the stars presented in our two papers and four more stars for which spectra have already been published in the literature. We find that 23/68 stars (33.8%) present large-scale variability, but only 12/54 stars ({approx}22.1%) are potentially of CIR type. Also, we find that 31/68 stars (45.6%) only show small-scale variability, most likely due to clumping in the wind. Finally, no spectral variability is detected based on the data on hand for 14/68 (20.6%) stars. Interestingly, the variability with the highest amplitude also has the widest mean velocity dispersion.« less

High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire Switzerland was used to verify snow distribution patterns at coarser spatial and temporal scale. The ability of the model chain to reproduce current climate conditions in small alpine catchments makes this model combination an outstanding candidate to produce high resolution climate scenarios of snowmelt in small alpine catchments.

Should we trust build-up/wash-off water quality models at the scale of urban catchments?

PubMed

Bonhomme, Céline; Petrucci, Guido

2017-01-01

Models of runoff water quality at the scale of an urban catchment usually rely on build-up/wash-off formulations obtained through small-scale experiments. Often, the physical interpretation of the model parameters, valid at the small-scale, is transposed to large-scale applications. Testing different levels of spatial variability, the parameter distributions of a water quality model are obtained in this paper through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm and analyzed. The simulated variable is the total suspended solid concentration at the outlet of a periurban catchment in the Paris region (2.3 km 2 ), for which high-frequency turbidity measurements are available. This application suggests that build-up/wash-off models applied at the catchment-scale do not maintain their physical meaning, but should be considered as "black-box" models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of spatial variability and sampling design on model performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrape, Charlotte; Schneider, Anne-Kathrin; Schröder, Boris; van Schaik, Loes

2017-04-01

Many environmental physical and chemical parameters as well as species distributions display a spatial variability at different scales. In case measurements are very costly in labour time or money a choice has to be made between a high sampling resolution at small scales and a low spatial cover of the study area or a lower sampling resolution at the small scales resulting in local data uncertainties with a better spatial cover of the whole area. This dilemma is often faced in the design of field sampling campaigns for large scale studies. When the gathered field data are subsequently used for modelling purposes the choice of sampling design and resulting data quality influence the model performance criteria. We studied this influence with a virtual model study based on a large dataset of field information on spatial variation of earthworms at different scales. Therefore we built a virtual map of anecic earthworm distributions over the Weiherbach catchment (Baden-Württemberg in Germany). First of all the field scale abundance of earthworms was estimated using a catchment scale model based on 65 field measurements. Subsequently the high small scale variability was added using semi-variograms, based on five fields with a total of 430 measurements divided in a spatially nested sampling design over these fields, to estimate the nugget, range and standard deviation of measurements within the fields. With the produced maps, we performed virtual samplings of one up to 50 random points per field. We then used these data to rebuild the catchment scale models of anecic earthworm abundance with the same model parameters as in the work by Palm et al. (2013). The results of the models show clearly that a large part of the non-explained deviance of the models is due to the very high small scale variability in earthworm abundance: the models based on single virtual sampling points on average obtain an explained deviance of 0.20 and a correlation coefficient of 0.64. With increasing sampling points per field, we averaged the measured abundance of the sampling within each field to obtain a more representative value of the field average. Doubling the samplings per field strongly improved the model performance criteria (explained deviance 0.38 and correlation coefficient 0.73). With 50 sampling points per field the performance criteria were 0.91 and 0.97 respectively for explained deviance and correlation coefficient. The relationship between number of samplings and performance criteria can be described with a saturation curve. Beyond five samples per field the model improvement becomes rather small. With this contribution we wish to discuss the impact of data variability at sampling scale on model performance and the implications for sampling design and assessment of model results as well as ecological inferences.

Nonlinear stratospheric variability: multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis and singularity spectra

PubMed Central

Domeisen, Daniela I. V.

2016-01-01

Characterizing the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study, the different scaling laws in the long-term stratospheric variability are studied using multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The analysis is performed comparing four re-analysis products and different realizations of an idealized numerical model, isolating the role of topographic forcing and seasonal variability, as well as the absence of climate teleconnections and small-scale forcing. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) shows a transition of scaling exponents for time scales shorter than about 1 year, for which the variability is multifractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to a red spectrum, to longer time scales, for which the variability is monofractal and scales in time with a power law corresponding to white noise. Southern Hemisphere (SH) variability also shows a transition at annual scales. The SH also shows a narrower dynamical range in multifractality than the NH, as seen in the generalized Hurst exponent and in the singularity spectra. The numerical integrations show that the models are able to reproduce the low-frequency variability but are not able to fully capture the shorter term variability of the stratosphere. PMID:27493560

The universal function in color dipole model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalilian, Z.; Boroun, G. R.

2017-10-01

In this work we review color dipole model and recall properties of the saturation and geometrical scaling in this model. Our primary aim is determining the exact universal function in terms of the introduced scaling variable in different distance than the saturation radius. With inserting the mass in calculation we compute numerically the contribution of heavy productions in small x from the total structure function by the fraction of universal functions and show the geometrical scaling is established due to our scaling variable in this study.

Phytoplankton plasticity drives large variability in carbon fixation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayata, Sakina-Dorothée.; Lévy, Marina; Aumont, Olivier; Resplandy, Laure; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Sciandra, Antoine; Bernard, Olivier

2014-12-01

Phytoplankton C:N stoichiometry is highly flexible due to physiological plasticity, which could lead to high variations in carbon fixation efficiency (carbon consumption relative to nitrogen). However, the magnitude, as well as the spatial and temporal scales of variability, remains poorly constrained. We used a high-resolution biogeochemical model resolving various scales from small to high, spatially and temporally, in order to quantify and better understand this variability. We find that phytoplankton C:N ratio is highly variable at all spatial and temporal scales (5-12 molC/molN), from mesoscale to regional scale, and is mainly driven by nitrogen supply. Carbon fixation efficiency varies accordingly at all scales (±30%), with higher values under oligotrophic conditions and lower values under eutrophic conditions. Hence, phytoplankton plasticity may act as a buffer by attenuating carbon sequestration variability. Our results have implications for in situ estimations of C:N ratios and for future predictions under high CO2 world.

The Use of Rainfall Forecasts as a Decision Guide for Small-Scale Farming in Limpopo Province, South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moeletsi, M. E.; Mellaart, E. A. R.; Mpandeli, N. S.; Hamandawana, H.

2013-01-01

Purpose: New innovative ways of communicating agrometeorological information are needed to help farmers, especially subsistence/small-scale farmers, to cope with the high climate variability experienced in most parts of southern Africa. Design/methodology/approach: The article introduces an early warning system for farmers. It utilizes short…

Noise characteristics of upper surface blown configurations. Experimental program and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, W. H.; Searle, N.; Blakney, D. F.; Pennock, A. P.; Gibson, J. S.

1977-01-01

An experimental data base was developed from the model upper surface blowing (USB) propulsive lift system hardware. While the emphasis was on far field noise data, a considerable amount of relevant flow field data were also obtained. The data were derived from experiments in four different facilities resulting in: (1) small scale static flow field data; (2) small scale static noise data; (3) small scale simulated forward speed noise and load data; and (4) limited larger-scale static noise flow field and load data. All of the small scale tests used the same USB flap parts. Operational and geometrical variables covered in the test program included jet velocity, nozzle shape, nozzle area, nozzle impingement angle, nozzle vertical and horizontal location, flap length, flap deflection angle, and flap radius of curvature.

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE PAGES

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2015-08-07

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

Non-Gaussian Multi-resolution Modeling of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, M.; Paul, D.; Lee, T. C. M.; Matsuo, T.

2016-12-01

The most dynamic coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere occurs in the Earth's polar atmosphere. Our objective is to model scale-dependent stochastic characteristics of high-latitude ionospheric electric fields that originate from solar wind magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions. The Earth's high-latitude ionospheric electric field exhibits considerable variability, with increasing non-Gaussian characteristics at decreasing spatio-temporal scales. Accurately representing the underlying stochastic physical process through random field modeling is crucial not only for scientific understanding of the energy, momentum and mass exchanges between the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, but also for modern technological systems including telecommunication, navigation, positioning and satellite tracking. While a lot of efforts have been made to characterize the large-scale variability of the electric field in the context of Gaussian processes, no attempt has been made so far to model the small-scale non-Gaussian stochastic process observed in the high-latitude ionosphere. We construct a novel random field model using spherical needlets as building blocks. The double localization of spherical needlets in both spatial and frequency domains enables the model to capture the non-Gaussian and multi-resolutional characteristics of the small-scale variability. The estimation procedure is computationally feasible due to the utilization of an adaptive Gibbs sampler. We apply the proposed methodology to the computational simulation output from the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) magnetosphere model. Our non-Gaussian multi-resolution model results in characterizing significantly more energy associated with the small-scale ionospheric electric field variability in comparison to Gaussian models. By accurately representing unaccounted-for additional energy and momentum sources to the Earth's upper atmosphere, our novel random field modeling approach will provide a viable remedy to the current numerical models' systematic biases resulting from the underestimation of high-latitude energy and momentum sources.

[Soil and forest structure in the Colombian Amazon].

PubMed

Calle-Rendón, Bayron R; Moreno, Flavio; Cárdenas López, Dairon

2011-09-01

Forests structural differences could result of environmental variations at different scales. Because soils are an important component of plant's environment, it is possible that edaphic and structural variables are associated and that, in consequence, spatial autocorrelation occurs. This paper aims to answer two questions: (1) are structural and edaphic variables associated at local scale in a terra firme forest of Colombian Amazonia? and (2) are these variables regionalized at the scale of work? To answer these questions we analyzed the data of a 6ha plot established in a terra firme forest of the Amacayacu National Park. Structural variables included basal area and density of large trees (diameter > or = 10cm) (Gdos and Ndos), basal area and density of understory individuals (diameter < 10cm) (Gsot and Nsot) and number of species of large trees (sp). Edaphic variables included were pH, organic matter, P, Mg, Ca, K, Al, sand, silt and clay. Structural and edaphic variables were reduced through a principal component analysis (PCA); then, the association between edaphic and structural components from PCA was evaluated by multiple regressions. The existence of regionalization of these variables was studied through isotropic variograms, and autocorrelated variables were spatially mapped. PCA found two significant components for structure, corresponding to the structure of large trees (G, Gdos, Ndos and sp) and of small trees (N, Nsot and Gsot), which explained 43.9% and 36.2% of total variance, respectively. Four components were identified for edaphic variables, which globally explained 81.9% of total variance and basically represent drainage and soil fertility. Regression analyses were significant (p < 0.05) and showed that the structure of both large and small trees is associated with greater sand contents and low soil fertility, though they explained a low proportion of total variability (R2 was 4.9% and 16.5% for the structure of large trees and small tress, respectively). Variables with spatial autocorrelation were the structure of small trees, Al, silt, and sand. Among them, Nsot and sand content showed similar patterns of spatial distribution inside the plot.

Spatial and temporal variability in forest growth in the Olympic Mountains, Washington: sensitivity to climatic variability.

Treesearch

Melisa L. Holman; David L. Peterson

2006-01-01

We compared annual basal area increment (BAI) at different spatial scales among all size classes and species at diverse locations in the wet western and dry northeastern Olympic Mountains. Weak growth correlations at small spatial scales (average R = 0.084-0.406) suggest that trees are responding to local growth conditions. However, significant...

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

The relationship between observational scale and explained variance in benthic communities

PubMed Central

Flood, Roger D.; Frisk, Michael G.; Garza, Corey D.; Lopez, Glenn R.; Maher, Nicole P.

2018-01-01

This study addresses the impact of spatial scale on explaining variance in benthic communities. In particular, the analysis estimated the fraction of community variation that occurred at a spatial scale smaller than the sampling interval (i.e., the geographic distance between samples). This estimate is important because it sets a limit on the amount of community variation that can be explained based on the spatial configuration of a study area and sampling design. Six benthic data sets were examined that consisted of faunal abundances, common environmental variables (water depth, grain size, and surficial percent cover), and sonar backscatter treated as a habitat proxy (categorical acoustic provinces). Redundancy analysis was coupled with spatial variograms generated by multiscale ordination to quantify the explained and residual variance at different spatial scales and within and between acoustic provinces. The amount of community variation below the sampling interval of the surveys (< 100 m) was estimated to be 36–59% of the total. Once adjusted for this small-scale variation, > 71% of the remaining variance was explained by the environmental and province variables. Furthermore, these variables effectively explained the spatial structure present in the infaunal community. Overall, no scale problems remained to compromise inferences, and unexplained infaunal community variation had no apparent spatial structure within the observational scale of the surveys (> 100 m), although small-scale gradients (< 100 m) below the observational scale may be present. PMID:29324746

Variability in Soil Properties at Different Spatial Scales (1 m to 1 km) in a Deciduous Forest Ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garten Jr, Charles T; Kang, S.; Brice, Deanne Jane

2007-01-01

The purpose of this research was to test the hypothesis that variability in 11 soil properties, related to soil texture and soil C and N, would increase from small (1 m) to large (1 km) spatial scales in a temperate, mixed-hardwood forest ecosystem in east Tennessee, USA. The results were somewhat surprising and indicated that a fundamental assumption in geospatial analysis, namely that variability increases with increasing spatial scale, did not apply for at least five of the 11 soil properties measured over a 0.5-km2 area. Composite mineral soil samples (15 cm deep) were collected at 1, 5, 10, 50,more » 250, and 500 m distances from a center point along transects in a north, south, east, and westerly direction. A null hypothesis of equal variance at different spatial scales was rejected (P{le}0.05) for mineral soil C concentration, silt content, and the C-to-N ratios in particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MOM), and whole surface soil. Results from different tests of spatial variation, based on coefficients of variation or a Mantel test, led to similar conclusions about measurement variability and geographic distance for eight of the 11 variables examined. Measurements of mineral soil C and N concentrations, C concentrations in MOM, extractable soil NH{sub 4}-N, and clay contents were just as variable at smaller scales (1-10 m) as they were at larger scales (50-500 m). On the other hand, measurement variation in mineral soil C-to-N ratios, MOM C-to-N ratios, and the fraction of soil C in POM clearly increased from smaller to larger spatial scales. With the exception of extractable soil NH4-N, measured soil properties in the forest ecosystem could be estimated (with 95% confidence) to within 15% of their true mean with a relatively modest number of sampling points (n{le}25). For some variables, scaling up variation from smaller to larger spatial domains within the ecosystem could be relatively easy because small-scale variation may be indicative of variation at larger scales.« less

Comparing Effects of Lake- and Watershed-Scale Influences on Communities of Aquatic Invertebrates in Shallow Lakes

PubMed Central

Hanson, Mark A.; Herwig, Brian R.; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Fieberg, John; Vaughn, Sean R.; Wright, Robert G.; Younk, Jerry A.

2012-01-01

Constraints on lake communities are complex and are usually studied by using limited combinations of variables derived from measurements within or adjacent to study waters. While informative, results often provide limited insight about magnitude of simultaneous influences operating at multiple scales, such as lake- vs. watershed-scale. To formulate comparisons of such contrasting influences, we explored factors controlling the abundance of predominant aquatic invertebrates in 75 shallow lakes in western Minnesota, USA. Using robust regression techniques, we modeled relative abundance of Amphipoda, small and large cladocera, Corixidae, aquatic Diptera, and an aggregate taxon that combined Ephemeroptera-Trichoptera-Odonata (ETO) in response to lake- and watershed-scale characteristics. Predictor variables included fish and submerged plant abundance, linear distance to the nearest wetland or lake, watershed size, and proportion of the watershed in agricultural production. Among-lake variability in invertebrate abundance was more often explained by lake-scale predictors than by variables based on watershed characteristics. For example, we identified significant associations between fish presence and community type and abundance of small and large cladocera, Amphipoda, Diptera, and ETO. Abundance of Amphipoda, Diptera, and Corixidae were also positively correlated with submerged plant abundance. We observed no associations between lake-watershed variables and abundance of our invertebrate taxa. Broadly, our results seem to indicate preeminence of lake-level influences on aquatic invertebrates in shallow lakes, but historical land-use legacies may mask important relationships. PMID:22970275

Predicting Species Distributions Using Record Centre Data: Multi-Scale Modelling of Habitat Suitability for Bat Roosts.

PubMed

Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John

2015-01-01

Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the potential to become a standard tool for supporting landscape-scale decision-making as relevant data and open source, user-friendly, and peer-reviewed software become widely available.

Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, J.L.

2006-01-01

Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M < ??? 3) earthquakes in southern California, the east San Francisco Bay, and the aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. I quantify the degree of mechanism variability on a range of length scales by comparing the hypocentral disctance between every pair of events and the angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance

The Use of Scale-Dependent Precision to Increase Forecast Accuracy in Earth System Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornes, Tobias; Duben, Peter; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

At the current pace of development, it may be decades before the 'exa-scale' computers needed to resolve individual convective clouds in weather and climate models become available to forecasters, and such machines will incur very high power demands. But the resolution could be improved today by switching to more efficient, 'inexact' hardware with which variables can be represented in 'reduced precision'. Currently, all numbers in our models are represented as double-precision floating points - each requiring 64 bits of memory - to minimise rounding errors, regardless of spatial scale. Yet observational and modelling constraints mean that values of atmospheric variables are inevitably known less precisely on smaller scales, suggesting that this may be a waste of computer resources. More accurate forecasts might therefore be obtained by taking a scale-selective approach whereby the precision of variables is gradually decreased at smaller spatial scales to optimise the overall efficiency of the model. To study the effect of reducing precision to different levels on multiple spatial scales, we here introduce a new model atmosphere developed by extending the Lorenz '96 idealised system to encompass three tiers of variables - which represent large-, medium- and small-scale features - for the first time. In this chaotic but computationally tractable system, the 'true' state can be defined by explicitly resolving all three tiers. The abilities of low resolution (single-tier) double-precision models and similar-cost high resolution (two-tier) models in mixed-precision to produce accurate forecasts of this 'truth' are compared. The high resolution models outperform the low resolution ones even when small-scale variables are resolved in half-precision (16 bits). This suggests that using scale-dependent levels of precision in more complicated real-world Earth System models could allow forecasts to be made at higher resolution and with improved accuracy. If adopted, this new paradigm would represent a revolution in numerical modelling that could be of great benefit to the world.

Patterns and scaling properties of surface soil moisture in an agricultural landscape: An ecohydrological modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korres, W.; Reichenau, T. G.; Schneider, K.

2013-08-01

Soil moisture is a key variable in hydrology, meteorology and agriculture. Soil moisture, and surface soil moisture in particular, is highly variable in space and time. Its spatial and temporal patterns in agricultural landscapes are affected by multiple natural (precipitation, soil, topography, etc.) and agro-economic (soil management, fertilization, etc.) factors, making it difficult to identify unequivocal cause and effect relationships between soil moisture and its driving variables. The goal of this study is to characterize and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of surface soil moisture (top 20 cm) in an intensively used agricultural landscape (1100 km2 northern part of the Rur catchment, Western Germany) and to determine the dominant factors and underlying processes controlling these patterns. A second goal is to analyze the scaling behavior of surface soil moisture patterns in order to investigate how spatial scale affects spatial patterns. To achieve these goals, a dynamically coupled, process-based and spatially distributed ecohydrological model was used to analyze the key processes as well as their interactions and feedbacks. The model was validated for two growing seasons for the three main crops in the investigation area: Winter wheat, sugar beet, and maize. This yielded RMSE values for surface soil moisture between 1.8 and 7.8 vol.% and average RMSE values for all three crops of 0.27 kg m-2 for total aboveground biomass and 0.93 for green LAI. Large deviations of measured and modeled soil moisture can be explained by a change of the infiltration properties towards the end of the growing season, especially in maize fields. The validated model was used to generate daily surface soil moisture maps, serving as a basis for an autocorrelation analysis of spatial patterns and scale. Outside of the growing season, surface soil moisture patterns at all spatial scales depend mainly upon soil properties. Within the main growing season, larger scale patterns that are induced by soil properties are superimposed by the small scale land use pattern and the resulting small scale variability of evapotranspiration. However, this influence decreases at larger spatial scales. Most precipitation events cause temporarily higher surface soil moisture autocorrelation lengths at all spatial scales for a short time even beyond the autocorrelation lengths induced by soil properties. The relation of daily spatial variance to the spatial scale of the analysis fits a power law scaling function, with negative values of the scaling exponent, indicating a decrease in spatial variability with increasing spatial resolution. High evapotranspiration rates cause an increase in the small scale soil moisture variability, thus leading to large negative values of the scaling exponent. Utilizing a multiple regression analysis, we found that 53% of the variance of the scaling exponent can be explained by a combination of an independent LAI parameter and the antecedent precipitation.

Risk of Resource Failure and Toolkit Variation in Small-Scale Farmers and Herders

PubMed Central

Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O’Brien, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Recent work suggests that global variation in toolkit structure among hunter-gatherers is driven by risk of resource failure such that as risk of resource failure increases, toolkits become more diverse and complex. Here we report a study in which we investigated whether the toolkits of small-scale farmers and herders are influenced by risk of resource failure in the same way. In the study, we applied simple linear and multiple regression analysis to data from 45 small-scale food-producing groups to test the risk hypothesis. Our results were not consistent with the hypothesis; none of the risk variables we examined had a significant impact on toolkit diversity or on toolkit complexity. It appears, therefore, that the drivers of toolkit structure differ between hunter-gatherers and small-scale food-producers. PMID:22844421

Water-vapour variability within a convective boundary-layer assessed by large-eddy simulations and IHOP_2002 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couvreux, F.; Guichard, F.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Kiemle, C.; Masson, V.; Lafore, J. P.; Flamant, C.

2005-10-01

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the variability of water vapour in a growing convective boundary-layer (CBL) over land, highlighting the complex links between advection, convective activity and moisture heterogeneity in the boundary layer. A Large-eddy Simulation (LES) is designed, based on observations, and validated, using an independent data-set collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP 2002) fieldexperiment. Ample information about the moisture distribution in space and time, as well as other important CBL parameters are acquired by mesonet stations, balloon soundings, instruments on-board two aircraft and the DLR airborne water-vapour differential-absorption lidar. Because it can deliver two-dimensional cross-sections at high spatial resolution (140 m horizontal, 200 m vertical), the airborne lidar offers valuable insights of small-scale moisture-variability throughout the CBL. The LES is able to reproduce the development of the CBL in the morning and early afternoon, as assessed by comparisons of simulated mean profiles of key meteorological variables with sounding data. Simulated profiles of the variance of water-vapour mixing-ratio were found to be in good agreement with the lidar-derived counterparts. Finally, probability-density functions of potential temperature, vertical velocity and water-vapour mixing-ratio calculated from the LES show great consistency with those derived from aircraft in situ measurements in the middle of the CBL. Downdraughts entrained from above the CBL are governing the scale of moisture variability. Characteristic length-scales are found to be larger for water-vapour mixing-ratio than for temperature.The observed water-vapour variability exhibits contributions from different scales. The influence of the mesoscale (larger than LES domain size, i.e. 10 km) on the smaller-scale variability is assessed using LES and observations. The small-scale variability of water vapour is found to be important and to be driven by the dynamics of the CBL. Both lidar observations and LES evidence that dry downdraughts entrained from above the CBL are governing the scale of moisture variability. Characteristic length-scales are found to be larger for water-vapour mixing-ratio than for temperature and vertical velocity. In particular, intrusions of drier free-troposphere air from above the growing CBL impose a marked negative skewness on the water-vapour distribution within it, both as observed and in the simulation.

Estimating Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrous oxide emissions are highly variable in space and time and different methodologies have not agreed closely, especially at small scales. However, as scale increases, so does the agreement between estimates based on soil surface measurements (bottom up approach) and estimates derived from chang...

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

Shortwave surface radiation network for observing small-scale cloud inhomogeneity fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi Madhavan, Bomidi; Kalisch, John; Macke, Andreas

2016-03-01

As part of the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), a high-density network of 99 silicon photodiode pyranometers was set up around Jülich (10 km × 12 km area) from April to July 2013 to capture the small-scale variability of cloud-induced radiation fields at the surface. In this paper, we provide the details of this unique setup of the pyranometer network, data processing, quality control, and uncertainty assessment under variable conditions. Some exemplary days with clear, broken cloudy, and overcast skies were explored to assess the spatiotemporal observations from the network along with other collocated radiation and sky imager measurements available during the HOPE period.

Process, pattern and scale: hydrogeomorphology and plant diversity in forested wetlands across multiple spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, L.; Hupp, C. R.; Forman, R. T.

2002-12-01

Many geodisturbances occur across large spatial scales, spanning entire landscapes and creating ecological phenomena in their wake. Ecological study at large scales poses special problems: (1) large-scale studies require large-scale resources, and (2) sampling is not always feasible at the appropriate scale, and researchers rely on data collected at smaller scales to interpret patterns across broad regions. A criticism of landscape ecology is that findings at small spatial scales are "scaled up" and applied indiscriminately across larger spatial scales. In this research, landscape scaling is addressed through process-pattern relationships between hydrogeomorphic processes and patterns of plant diversity in forested wetlands. The research addresses: (1) whether patterns and relationships between hydrogeomorphic, vegetation, and spatial variables can transcend scale; and (2) whether data collected at small spatial scales can be used to describe patterns and relationships across larger spatial scales. Field measurements of hydrologic, geomorphic, spatial, and vegetation data were collected or calculated for 15- 1-ha sites on forested floodplains of six (6) Chesapeake Bay Coastal Plain streams over a total area of about 20,000 km2. Hydroperiod (day/yr), floodplain surface elevation range (m), discharge (m3/s), stream power (kg-m/s2), sediment deposition (mm/yr), relative position downstream and other variables were used in multivariate analyses to explain differences in species richness, tree diversity (Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index H'), and plant community composition at four spatial scales. Data collected at the plot (400-m2) and site- (c. 1-ha) scales are applied to and tested at the river watershed and regional spatial scales. Results indicate that plant species richness and tree diversity (Shannon-Wiener diversity index H') can be described by hydrogeomorphic conditions at all scales, but are best described at the site scale. Data collected at plot and site scales are tested for spatial heterogeneity across the Chesapeake Bay Coastal Plain using a geostatistical variogram, and multiple regression analysis is used to relate plant diversity, spatial, and hydrogeomorphic variables across Coastal Plain regions and hydrologic regimes. Results indicate that relationships between hydrogeomorphic processes and patterns of plant diversity at finer scales can proxy relationships at coarser scales in some, not all, cases. Findings also suggest that data collected at small scales can be used to describe trends across broader scales under limited conditions.

Scale issues in soil hydrology related to measurement and simulation: A case study in Colorado

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

State variables, such as soil water content (SWC), are typically measured or inferred at very small scales while being simulated at larger scales relevant to spatial management or hillslope areas. Thus there is an implicit spatial disparity that is often ignored. Surface runoff, on the other hand, ...

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model performance. Results were analyzed at three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed in the modeling work. The sensitivity of the model to small-scale rainfall variability was discussed as well.

Understanding thermal circulations and near-surface turbulence processes in a small mountain valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardyjak, E.; Dupuy, F.; Durand, P.; Gunawardena, N.; Thierry, H.; Roubin, P.

2017-12-01

The interaction of turbulence and thermal circulations in complex terrain can be significantly different from idealized flat terrain. In particular, near-surface horizontal spatial and temporal variability of winds and thermodynamic variables can be significant event over very small spatial scales. The KASCADE (KAtabatic winds and Stability over CAdarache for Dispersion of Effluents) 2017 conducted from January through March 2017 was designed to address these issues and to ultimately improve prediction of dispersion in complex terrain, particularly during stable atmospheric conditions. We have used a relatively large number of sensors to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal development, evolution and breakdown of topographically driven flows. KASCADE 2017 consisted of continuous observations and fourteen Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) conducted in the Cadarache Valley located in southeastern France. The Cadarache Valley is a relatively small valley (5 km x 1 km) with modest slopes and relatively small elevation differences between the valley floor and nearby hilltops ( 100 m). During winter, winds in the valley are light and stably stratified at night leading to thermal circulations as well as complex near-surface atmospheric layering. In this presentation we present results quantifying spatial variability of thermodynamic and turbulence variables as a function of different large -scale forcing conditions (e.g., quiescent conditions, strong westerly flow, and Mistral flow). In addition, we attempt to characterize highly-regular nocturnal horizontal wind meandering and associated turbulence statistics.

Subgrid-scale Condensation Modeling for Entropy-based Large Eddy Simulations of Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, C. M.; Schneider, T.; Pressel, K. G.; Tan, Z.

2015-12-01

An entropy- and total water-based formulation of LES thermodynamics, such as that used by the recently developed code PyCLES, is advantageous from physical and numerical perspectives. However, existing closures for subgrid-scale thermodynamic fluctuations assume more traditional choices for prognostic thermodynamic variables, such as liquid potential temperature, and are not directly applicable to entropy-based modeling. Since entropy and total water are generally nonlinearly related to diagnosed quantities like temperature and condensate amounts, neglecting their small-scale variability can lead to bias in simulation results. Here we present the development of a subgrid-scale condensation model suitable for use with entropy-based thermodynamic formulations.

Paradigm change in ocean studies: multi-platform observing and forecasting integrated approach in response to science and society needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

The last 20 years of ocean research have allowed a description of the state of the large-scale ocean circulation. However, it is also well known that there is no such thing as an ocean state and that the ocean varies a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. More recently, in the last 10 years, new monitoring and modelling technologies have emerged allowing quasi real time observation and forecasting of the ocean at regional and local scales. Theses new technologies are key components of recent observing & forecasting systems being progressively implemented in many regional seas and coastal areas of the world oceans. As a result, new capabilities to characterise the ocean state and more important, its variability at small spatial and temporal scales, exists today in many cases in quasi-real time. Examples of relevance for society can be cited, among others our capabilities to detect and understand long-term climatic changes and also our capabilities to better constrain our forecasting capabilities of the coastal ocean circulation at temporal scales from sub-seasonal to inter-annual and spatial from regional to meso and submesoscale. The Mediterranean Sea is a well-known laboratory ocean where meso and submesoscale features can be ideally observed and studied as shown by the key contributions from projects such as Perseus, CMEMS, Jericonext, among others. The challenge for the next 10 years is the integration of theses technologies and multiplatform observing and forecasting systems to (a) monitor the variability at small scales mesoscale/weeks) in order (b) to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability and by this (c) establish the decadal variability, understand the associated biases and correct them. In other words, the new observing systems now allow a major change in our focus of ocean observation, now from small to large scales. Recent studies from SOCIB -www.socib.es- have shown the importance of this new small to large-scale multi-platform approach in ocean observation. Three examples from the integration capabilities of SOCIB facilities will be presented and discussed. First the quasi-continuous high frequency glider monitoring of the Ibiza Channel since 2011, an important biodiversity hot spot and a 'choke' point in the Western Mediterranean circulation, has allowed us to reveal a high frequency variability in the North-South exchanges, with very significant changes (0.8 - 0.9 Sv) occurring over periods of days to week of the same order as the previously known seasonal cycle. HF radar data and model results have also contributed more recently to better describe and understand the variability at small scales. Second, the Alborex/Perseus project multi-platform experiment (e.g., RV catamaran, 2 gliders, 25 drifters, 3 Argo type profilers & satellite data) that focused on submesoscale processes and ecosystem response and carried out in the Alborán Sea in May 2014. Glider results showed significant chlorophyll subduction in areas adjacent to the steep density front with patterns related to vertical motion. Initial dynamical interpretations will be presented. Third and final, I will discuss the key relevance of the data centre to guarantee data interoperability, quality control, availability and distribution for this new approach to ocean observation and forecasting to be really efficient in responding to key scientific state of the art priorities, enhancing technology development and responding to society needs.

Optimal variable-grid finite-difference modeling for porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinxin; Yin, Xingyao; Li, Haishan

2014-12-01

Numerical modeling of poroelastic waves by the finite-difference (FD) method is more expensive than that of acoustic or elastic waves. To improve the accuracy and computational efficiency of seismic modeling, variable-grid FD methods have been developed. In this paper, we derived optimal staggered-grid finite difference schemes with variable grid-spacing and time-step for seismic modeling in porous media. FD operators with small grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for low-velocity or small-scale geological bodies, while FD operators with big grid-spacing and time-step are adopted for high-velocity or large-scale regions. The dispersion relations of FD schemes were derived based on the plane wave theory, then the FD coefficients were obtained using the Taylor expansion. Dispersion analysis and modeling results demonstrated that the proposed method has higher accuracy with lower computational cost for poroelastic wave simulation in heterogeneous reservoirs.

Small scale currents and ocean wave heights: from today's models to future satellite observations with CFOSAT and SKIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardhuin, Fabrice; Gille, Sarah; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Rocha, Cesar; Rascle, Nicolas; Gula, Jonathan; Chapron, Bertrand

2017-04-01

Tidal currents and large oceanic currents, such as the Agulhas, Gulf Stream and Kuroshio, are known to modify ocean wave properties, causing extreme sea states that are a hazard to navigation. Recent advances in the understanding and modeling capability of ocean currents at scales of 10 km or less have revealed the ubiquitous presence of fronts and filaments. Based on realistic numerical models, we show that these structures can be the main source of variability in significant wave heights at scales less than 200 km, including important variations at 10 km. This current-induced variability creates gradients in wave heights that were previously overlooked and are relevant for extreme wave heights and remote sensing. The spectrum of significant wave heights is found to be of the order of 70⟨Hs ⟩2/(g2⟨Tm0,-1⟩2) times the current spectrum, where ⟨Hs ⟩ is the spatially-averaged significant wave height, ⟨Tm0,-1⟩ is the average energy period, and g is the gravity acceleration. This small scale variability is consistent with Jason-3 and SARAL along-track variability. We will discuss how future satellite mission with wave spectrometers can help observe these wave-current interactions. CFOSAT is due for launch in 2018, and SKIM is a proposal for ESA Earth Explorer 9.

Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Moise, Aurel F.

2017-01-01

This study analyses tropical rainfall variability (on a range of temporal and spatial scales) in a set of parallel Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations at a range of horizontal resolutions, which are compared with two satellite-derived rainfall datasets. We focus on the shorter scales, i.e. from the native grid and time step of the model through sub-daily to seasonal, since previous studies have paid relatively little attention to sub-daily rainfall variability and how this feeds through to longer scales. We find that the behaviour of the deep convection parametrization in this model on the native grid and time step is largely independent of the grid-box size and time step length over which it operates. There is also little difference in the rainfall variability on larger/longer spatial/temporal scales. Tropical convection in the model on the native grid/time step is spatially and temporally intermittent, producing very large rainfall amounts interspersed with grid boxes/time steps of little or no rain. In contrast, switching off the deep convection parametrization, albeit at an unrealistic resolution for resolving tropical convection, results in very persistent (for limited periods), but very sporadic, rainfall. In both cases, spatial and temporal averaging smoothes out this intermittency. On the ˜ 100 km scale, for oceanic regions, the spectra of 3-hourly and daily mean rainfall in the configurations with parametrized convection agree fairly well with those from satellite-derived rainfall estimates, while at ˜ 10-day timescales the averages are overestimated, indicating a lack of intra-seasonal variability. Over tropical land the results are more varied, but the model often underestimates the daily mean rainfall (partly as a result of a poor diurnal cycle) but still lacks variability on intra-seasonal timescales. Ultimately, such work will shed light on how uncertainties in modelling small-/short-scale processes relate to uncertainty in climate change projections of rainfall distribution and variability, with a view to reducing such uncertainty through improved modelling of small-/short-scale processes.

Predicting above-ground density and distribution of small mammal prey species at large spatial scales

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Grassland and shrub-steppe ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities. Loss of native habitats may negatively impact important small mammal prey species. Little information, however, is available on the impact of habitat variability on density of small mammal prey species at broad spatial scales. We examined the relationship between small mammal density and remotely-sensed environmental covariates in shrub-steppe and grassland ecosystems in Wyoming, USA. We sampled four sciurid and leporid species groups using line transect methods, and used hierarchical distance-sampling to model density in response to variation in vegetation, climate, topographic, and anthropogenic variables, while accounting for variation in detection probability. We created spatial predictions of each species’ density and distribution. Sciurid and leporid species exhibited mixed responses to vegetation, such that changes to native habitat will likely affect prey species differently. Density of white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus), Wyoming ground squirrels (Urocitellus elegans), and leporids correlated negatively with proportion of shrub or sagebrush cover and positively with herbaceous cover or bare ground, whereas least chipmunks showed a positive correlation with shrub cover and a negative correlation with herbaceous cover. Spatial predictions from our models provide a landscape-scale metric of above-ground prey density, which will facilitate the development of conservation plans for these taxa and their predators at spatial scales relevant to management. PMID:28520757

Spatial Distribution of Stony Desertification and Key Influencing Factors on Different Sampling Scales in Small Karst Watersheds

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhenming; Zhou, Yunchao; Wang, Shijie

2018-01-01

Karst areas are typical ecologically fragile areas, and stony desertification has become the most serious ecological and economic problems in these areas worldwide as well as a source of disasters and poverty. A reasonable sampling scale is of great importance for research on soil science in karst areas. In this paper, the spatial distribution of stony desertification characteristics and its influencing factors in karst areas are studied at different sampling scales using a grid sampling method based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and geo-statistics. The rock exposure obtained through sampling over a 150 m × 150 m grid in the Houzhai River Basin was utilized as the original data, and five grid scales (300 m × 300 m, 450 m × 450 m, 600 m × 600 m, 750 m × 750 m, and 900 m × 900 m) were used as the subsample sets. The results show that the rock exposure does not vary substantially from one sampling scale to another, while the average values of the five subsamples all fluctuate around the average value of the entire set. As the sampling scale increases, the maximum value and the average value of the rock exposure gradually decrease, and there is a gradual increase in the coefficient of variability. At the scale of 150 m × 150 m, the areas of minor stony desertification, medium stony desertification, and major stony desertification in the Houzhai River Basin are 7.81 km2, 4.50 km2, and 1.87 km2, respectively. The spatial variability of stony desertification at small scales is influenced by many factors, and the variability at medium scales is jointly influenced by gradient, rock content, and rock exposure. At large scales, the spatial variability of stony desertification is mainly influenced by soil thickness and rock content. PMID:29652811

Spatial Distribution of Stony Desertification and Key Influencing Factors on Different Sampling Scales in Small Karst Watersheds.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhenming; Zhou, Yunchao; Wang, Shijie; Huang, Xianfei

2018-04-13

Karst areas are typical ecologically fragile areas, and stony desertification has become the most serious ecological and economic problems in these areas worldwide as well as a source of disasters and poverty. A reasonable sampling scale is of great importance for research on soil science in karst areas. In this paper, the spatial distribution of stony desertification characteristics and its influencing factors in karst areas are studied at different sampling scales using a grid sampling method based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and geo-statistics. The rock exposure obtained through sampling over a 150 m × 150 m grid in the Houzhai River Basin was utilized as the original data, and five grid scales (300 m × 300 m, 450 m × 450 m, 600 m × 600 m, 750 m × 750 m, and 900 m × 900 m) were used as the subsample sets. The results show that the rock exposure does not vary substantially from one sampling scale to another, while the average values of the five subsamples all fluctuate around the average value of the entire set. As the sampling scale increases, the maximum value and the average value of the rock exposure gradually decrease, and there is a gradual increase in the coefficient of variability. At the scale of 150 m × 150 m, the areas of minor stony desertification, medium stony desertification, and major stony desertification in the Houzhai River Basin are 7.81 km², 4.50 km², and 1.87 km², respectively. The spatial variability of stony desertification at small scales is influenced by many factors, and the variability at medium scales is jointly influenced by gradient, rock content, and rock exposure. At large scales, the spatial variability of stony desertification is mainly influenced by soil thickness and rock content.

[Species composition and point pattern analysis of standing trees in secondary Betula albosinensis forest in Xiaolongshan of west Qinling Mountains].

PubMed

Guo, Yao-xin; Kang, Bing; Li, Gang; Wang, De-xiang; Yang, Gai-he; Wang, Da-wei

2011-10-01

An investigation was conducted on the species composition and population diameter-class structure of a typical secondary Betula albo-sinensis forest in Xiaolongshan of west Qinling Mountains, and the spatial distribution pattern and interspecific correlations of the main populations were analyzed at multiple scales by the O-ring functions of single variable and double variables. In the test forest, B. albo-sinensis was obviously dominant, but from the analysis of DBH class distribution, the B. albo-sinensis seedlings were short of, and the natural regeneration was very poor. O the contrary, the regeneration of Abies fargesii and Populus davidianas was fine. B. albo-sinensis and Salix matsudana had a random distribution at almost all scales, while A. fargesii and P. davidianas were significantly clumped at small scale. B. albo-sinensis had positive correlations with A. fargesii and P. davidianas at medium scale, whereas S. matsudana had negative correlations with B. albo-sinensis, A. fargesii, and P. davidianas at small scale. No significant correlations were observed between other species. The findings suggested that the spatial distribution patterns of the tree species depended on their biological characteristics at small scale, but on the environmental heterogeneity at larger scales. In a period of future time, B. albo-sinensis would still be dominant, but from a long-term view, it was necessary to take some artificial measures to improve the regeneratio of B. albo-sinensis.

Spatial variability in intertidal macroalgal assemblages on the North Portuguese coast: consistence between species and functional group approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veiga, P.; Rubal, M.; Vieira, R.; Arenas, F.; Sousa-Pinto, I.

2013-03-01

Natural assemblages are variable in space and time; therefore, quantification of their variability is imperative to identify relevant scales for investigating natural or anthropogenic processes shaping these assemblages. We studied the variability of intertidal macroalgal assemblages on the North Portuguese coast, considering three spatial scales (from metres to 10 s of kilometres) following a hierarchical design. We tested the hypotheses that (1) spatial pattern will be invariant at all the studied scales and (2) spatial variability of macroalgal assemblages obtained by using species will be consistent with that obtained using functional groups. This was done considering as univariate variables: total biomass and number of taxa as well as biomass of the most important species and functional groups and as multivariate variables the structure of macroalgal assemblages, both considering species and functional groups. Most of the univariate results confirmed the first hypothesis except for the total number of taxa and foliose macroalgae that showed significant variability at the scale of site and area, respectively. In contrast, when multivariate patterns were examined, the first hypothesis was rejected except at the scale of 10 s of kilometres. Both uni- and multivariate results indicated that variation was larger at the smallest scale, and thus, small-scale processes seem to have more effect on spatial variability patterns. Macroalgal assemblages, both considering species and functional groups as surrogate, showed consistent spatial patterns, and therefore, the second hypothesis was confirmed. Consequently, functional groups may be considered a reliable biological surrogate to study changes on macroalgal assemblages at least along the investigated Portuguese coastline.

Variability of intertidal foraminferal assemblages in a salt marsh, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milker, Yvonne; Horton, Benjamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Witter, Robert C.

2015-01-01

We studied 18 sampling stations along a transect to investigate the similarity between live (rose Bengal stained) foraminiferal populations and dead assemblages, their small-scale spatial variations and the distribution of infaunal foraminifera in a salt marsh (Toms Creek marsh) at the upper end of the South Slough arm of the Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, USA. We aimed to test to what extent taphonomic processes, small-scale variability and infaunal distribution influence the accuracy of sea-level reconstructions based on intertidal foraminifera. Cluster analyses have shown that dead assemblages occur in distinct zones with respect to elevation, a prerequisite for using foraminifera as sea-level indicators. Our nonparametric multivariate analysis of variance showed that small-scale spatial variability has only a small influence on live (rose Bengal stained) populations and dead assemblages. The dissimilarity was higher, however, between live (rose Bengal stained) populations in the middle marsh. We observed early diagenetic dissolution of calcareous tests in the dead assemblages. If comparable post-depositional processes and similar minor spatial variability also characterize fossil assemblages, then dead assemblage are the best modern analogs for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The Toms Creek tidal flat and low marsh vascular plant zones are dominated by Miliammina fusca, the middle marsh is dominated by Balticammina pseudomacrescens and Trochammina inflata, and the high marsh and upland–marsh transition zone are dominated by Trochamminita irregularis. Analysis of infaunal foraminifera showed that most living specimens are found in the surface sediments and the majority of live (rose Bengal stained) infaunal specimens are restricted to the upper 10 cm, but living individuals are found to depths of 50 cm. The dominant infaunal specimens are similar to those in the corresponding surface samples and no species have been found living solely infaunally. The total numbers of infaunal foraminifera are small compared to the total numbers of dead specimens in the surface samples. This suggests that surface samples adequately represent the modern intertidal environment in Toms Creek.

Small-scale variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry, Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada.

PubMed

Ulanowski, T A; Branfireun, B A

2013-06-01

The Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL) of northern Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec, Canada is the second largest contiguous peatland complex in the world, currently containing more than half of Canada's soil carbon. Recent concerns about the ecohydrological impacts to these large northern peatlands resulting from climate change and resource extraction have catalyzed a resurgence in scientific research into this ecologically important region. However, the sheer size, heterogeneity and elaborate landscape arrangements of this ecosystem raise important questions concerning representative sampling of environmental media for chemical or physical characterization. To begin to quantify such variability, this study assessed the small-scale spatial (1m) and short temporal (21 day) variability of surface pore-water biogeochemistry (pH, dissolved organic carbon, and major ions) in a Sphagnum spp.-dominated, ombrotrophic raised bog, and a Carex spp.-dominated intermediate fen in the HBL. In general, pore-water pH and concentrations of dissolved solutes were similar to previously reported literature values from this region. However, systematic sampling revealed consistent statistically significant differences in pore-water chemistries between the bog and fen peatland types, and large within-site spatiotemporal variability. We found that microtopography in the bog was associated with consistent differences in most biogeochemical variables. Temporal changes in dissolved solute chemistry, particularly base cations (Na(+), Ca(2+) and Mg(2+)), were statistically significant in the intermediate fen, likely a result of a dynamic connection between surficial waters and mineral-rich deep groundwater. In both the bog and fen, concentrations of SO4(2-) showed considerable spatial variability, and a significant decrease in concentrations over the study period. The observed variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry over such small spatial and temporal scales suggests that under-sampling in northern peatland environments could lead to erroneous conclusions concerning the abundance and distribution of natural elements and pollutants alike. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Multiscale spatial and small-scale temporal variation in the composition of Riverine fish communities.

PubMed

Growns, Ivor; Astles, Karen; Gehrke, Peter

2006-03-01

We studied the multiscale (sites, river reaches and rivers) and short-term temporal (monthly) variability in a freshwater fish assemblage. We found that small-scale spatial variation and short-term temporal variability significantly influenced fish community structure in the Macquarie and Namoi Rivers. However, larger scale spatial differences between rivers were the largest source of variation in the data. The interaction between temporal change and spatial variation in fish community structure, whilst statistically significant, was smaller than the variation between rivers. This suggests that although the fish communities within each river changed between sampling occasions, the underlying differences between rivers were maintained. In contrast, the strongest interaction between temporal and spatial effects occurred at the smallest spatial scale, at the level of individual sites. This means whilst the composition of the fish assemblage at a given site may fluctuate, the magnitude of these changes is unlikely to affect larger scale differences between reaches within rivers or between rivers. These results suggest that sampling at any time within a single season will be sufficient to show spatial differences that occur over large spatial scales, such as comparisons between rivers or between biogeographical regions.

On the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Field-Aligned Currents Observed with the Swarm Satellite Constellation: Implications for the Energetics of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pakhotin, I.; Mann, I. R.; Forsyth, C.; Rae, J.; Burchill, J. K.; Knudsen, D. J.; Murphy, K. R.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Ozeke, L.; Balasis, G.; Daglis, I. A.

2016-12-01

With the advent of the Swarm mission with its multi-satellite capacity, it became possible for the first time to make systematic close separation multi-satellite measurements of the magnetic fields associated with field-aligned currents (FACs) at a 50 Hz cadence using fluxgate magnetometers. Initial studies have revealed an even greater level of detail and complexity and spatio-temporal non-stationarity than previously understood. On inter-satellite separation scales of 10 seconds along-track and <120 km cross-track, the peak-to-peak magnitudes of the small scale and poorly correlated inter-spacecraft magnetic field fluctuations can reach tens to hundreds of nanoteslas. These magnitudes are directly comparable to those associated with larger scale magnetic perturbations such as the global scale Region 1 and 2 FAC systems characterised by Iijima and Potemra 40 years ago. We evaluate the impact of these smaller scale magnetic perturbations relative to the larger scale FAC systems statistically as a function of the total number of FAC crossings observed, and as a function of geomagnetic indices, spatial location, and season. Further case studies incorporating Swarm electric field measurements enable estimates of the Poynting flux associated with the small scale and non-stationary magnetic fields. We interpret the small scale structures as Alfvenic, suggesting that Alfven waves play a much larger and more energetically significant role in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling than previously thought. We further examine what causes such high variability among low-Earth orbit FAC systems to be observed under some conditions but not in others.

Small-scale spatial variation in population dynamics and fishermen response in a coastal marine fishery.

PubMed

Wilson, Jono R; Kay, Matthew C; Colgate, John; Qi, Roy; Lenihan, Hunter S

2012-01-01

A major challenge for small-scale fisheries management is high spatial variability in the demography and life history characteristics of target species. Implementation of local management actions that can reduce overfishing and maximize yields requires quantifying ecological heterogeneity at small spatial scales and is therefore limited by available resources and data. Collaborative fisheries research (CFR) is an effective means to collect essential fishery information at local scales, and to develop the social, technical, and logistical framework for fisheries management innovation. We used a CFR approach with fishing partners to collect and analyze geographically precise demographic information for grass rockfish (Sebastes rastrelliger), a sedentary, nearshore species harvested in the live fish fishery on the West Coast of the USA. Data were used to estimate geographically distinct growth rates, ages, mortality, and length frequency distributions in two environmental subregions of the Santa Barbara Channel, CA, USA. Results indicated the existence of two subpopulations; one located in the relatively cold, high productivity western Channel, and another in the relatively warm, low productivity eastern Channel. We parameterized yield per recruit models, the results of which suggested nearly twice as much yield per recruit in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. The spatial distribution of fishing in the two environmental subregions demonstrated a similar pattern to the yield per recruit outputs with greater landings, effort, and catch per unit effort in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. Understanding how spatial variability in stock dynamics translates to variability in fishery yield and distribution of effort is important to developing management plans that maximize fishing opportunities and conservation benefits at local scales.

On the Scaling of Small, Heat Simulated Jet Noise Measurements to Moderate Size Exhaust Jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McLaughlin, Dennis K.; Bridges, James; Kuo, Ching-Wen

2010-01-01

Modern military aircraft jet engines are designed with variable geometry nozzles to provide optimum thrust in different operating conditions, depending on the flight envelope. However, the acoustic measurements for such nozzles are scarce, due to the cost involved in making full scale measurements and the lack of details about the exact geometry of these nozzles. Thus the present effort at The Pennsylvania State University and the NASA Glenn Research Center- in partnership with GE Aviation is aiming to study and characterize the acoustic field produced by supersonic jets issuing from converging-diverging military style nozzles. An equally important objective is to validate methodology for using data obtained from small and moderate scale experiments to reliably predict the most important components of full scale engine noise. The experimental results presented show reasonable agreement between small scale and moderate scale jet acoustic data, as well as between heated jets and heat-simulated ones. Unresolved issues however are identified that are currently receiving our attention, in particular the effect of the small bypass ratio airflow. Future activities will identify and test promising noise reduction techniques in an effort to predict how well such concepts will work with full scale engines in flight conditions.

Biodiversity in canopy-forming algae: Structure and spatial variability of the Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, L.; Bonaviri, C.; Castelli, A.; Ceccherelli, G.; Costa, G.; Curini-Galletti, M.; Langeneck, J.; Manconi, R.; Montefalcone, M.; Pipitone, C.; Rosso, A.; Pinna, S.

2018-07-01

In the Mediterranean Sea, Cystoseira species are the most important canopy-forming algae in shallow rocky bottoms, hosting high biodiverse sessile and mobile communities. A large-scale study has been carried out to investigate the structure of the Cystoseira-dominated assemblages at different spatial scales and to test the hypotheses that alpha and beta diversity of the assemblages, the abundance and the structure of epiphytic macroalgae, epilithic macroalgae, sessile macroinvertebrates and mobile macroinvertebrates associated to Cystoseira beds changed among scales. A hierarchical sampling design in a total of five sites across the Mediterranean Sea (Croatia, Montenegro, Sardinia, Tuscany and Balearic Islands) was used. A total of 597 taxa associated to Cystoseira beds were identified with a mean number per sample ranging between 141.1 ± 6.6 (Tuscany) and 173.9 ± 8.5(Sardinia). A high variability at small (among samples) and large (among sites) scale was generally highlighted, but the studied assemblages showed different patterns of spatial variability. The relative importance of the different scales of spatial variability should be considered to optimize sampling designs and propose monitoring plans of this habitat.

Downscaling ocean conditions: Experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, A.; Thompson, K. R.

2013-12-01

The predictability of small-scale ocean variability, given the time history of the associated large-scales, is investigated using a quasi-geostrophic model of two wind-driven gyres separated by an unstable, mid-ocean jet. Motivated by the recent theoretical study of Henshaw et al. (2003), we propose a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large-scale in order to recover the small-scale details of the quasi-geostrophic circulation. The similarity of this method to the spectral nudging of limited area atmospheric models is discussed. Results from the spectral nudging of the quasi-geostrophic model, and an independent multivariate regression-based approach, show that important features of the ocean circulation, including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and the associated pinch-off eddies, can be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scale modes. We next propose a hybrid approach for assimilating both the large-scales and additional observed time series from a limited number of locations that alone are too sparse to recover the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques. The hybrid approach improved significantly the recovery of the small-scales. The results highlight the importance of the coupling between length scales in downscaling applications, and the value of assimilating limited point observations after the large-scales have been set correctly. The application of the hybrid and spectral nudging to practical ocean forecasting, and projecting changes in ocean conditions on climate time scales, is discussed briefly.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Surface Soil Moisture in Evaluating Ground Truth Monitoring Sites for Remotely Sensed Observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture is an intrinsic state variable that varies considerably in space and time. Although soil moisture is highly variable, repeated measurements of soil moisture at the field or small watershed scale can often reveal certain locations as being temporally stable and representative of the are...

Field-aligned currents' scale analysis performed with the Swarm constellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lühr, Hermann; Park, Jaeheung; Gjerloev, Jesper W.; Rauberg, Jan; Michaelis, Ingo; Merayo, Jose M. G.; Brauer, Peter

2015-01-01

We present a statistical study of the temporal- and spatial-scale characteristics of different field-aligned current (FAC) types derived with the Swarm satellite formation. We divide FACs into two classes: small-scale, up to some 10 km, which are carried predominantly by kinetic Alfvén waves, and large-scale FACs with sizes of more than 150 km. For determining temporal variability we consider measurements at the same point, the orbital crossovers near the poles, but at different times. From correlation analysis we obtain a persistent period of small-scale FACs of order 10 s, while large-scale FACs can be regarded stationary for more than 60 s. For the first time we investigate the longitudinal scales. Large-scale FACs are different on dayside and nightside. On the nightside the longitudinal extension is on average 4 times the latitudinal width, while on the dayside, particularly in the cusp region, latitudinal and longitudinal scales are comparable.

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L.-L.; Chelton, D. B.

1985-01-01

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Design of permanent magnet eddy current brake for a small scaled electromagnetic launch model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shigui; Yu, Haitao; Hu, Minqiang; Huang, Lei

2012-04-01

A variable pole-pitch double-sided permanent magnet (PM) linear eddy current brake (LECB) is proposed for a small scaled electromagnetic launch model. A two-dimensional (2D) analytical steady state model is presented for the double-sided PM-LECB, and the expression for the braking force is derived. Based on the analytical model, the material and eddy current skin effect of the conducting plate are analyzed. Moreover, a variable pole-pitch double-sided PM-LECB is proposed for the effective braking of the moving plate. In addition, the braking force is predicted by finite element (FE) analysis, and the simulated results are in good agreement with the analytical model. Finally, a prototype is presented to test the braking profile for validation of the proposed design.

Data-driven Climate Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

2016-12-01

Global climate models aim to simulate a broad range of spatio-temporal scales of climate variability with state vector having many millions of degrees of freedom. On the other hand, while detailed weather prediction out to a few days requires high numerical resolution, it is fairly clear that a major fraction of large-scale climate variability can be predicted in a much lower-dimensional phase space. Low-dimensional models can simulate and predict this fraction of climate variability, provided they are able to account for linear and nonlinear interactions between the modes representing large scales of climate dynamics, as well as their interactions with a much larger number of modes representing fast and small scales. This presentation will highlight several new applications by Multilayered Stochastic Modeling (MSM) [Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil, 2015] framework that has abundantly proven its efficiency in the modeling and real-time forecasting of various climate phenomena. MSM is a data-driven inverse modeling technique that aims to obtain a low-order nonlinear system of prognostic equations driven by stochastic forcing, and estimates both the dynamical operator and the properties of the driving noise from multivariate time series of observations or a high-end model's simulation. MSM leads to a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) involving hidden (auxiliary) variables of fast-small scales ranked by layers, which interact with the macroscopic (observed) variables of large-slow scales to model the dynamics of the latter, and thus convey memory effects. New MSM climate applications focus on development of computationally efficient low-order models by using data-adaptive decomposition methods that convey memory effects by time-embedding techniques, such as Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) [Ghil et al. 2002] and recently developed Data-Adaptive Harmonic (DAH) decomposition method [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2016]. In particular, new results by DAH-MSM modeling and prediction of Arctic Sea Ice, as well as decadal predictions of near-surface Earth temperatures will be presented.

Dredging-induced nutrient release from sediments to the water column in a southeastern saltmarsh tidal creek.

PubMed

Lohrer, Andrew M; Wetz, Jennifer Jarrell

2003-09-01

Dredging is a large-scale anthropogenic disturbance agent in coastal and estuarine habitats that can profoundly affect water quality. We examined the impact of a small-scale dredging operation in a salt marsh in South Carolina by comparing nutrient levels (NH(4)(+), NO(x), PO(4)(-)) and total suspended solid concentrations before and during dredging activities. Nutrient enrichment was evaluated within the context of tidal, seasonal, and inter-annual variability by using long-term water chemistry data provided by the North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The conditions of the dredging permit (i.e., its relatively small scale), the season chosen for the work (fall-winter), the nature of the sediments dredged (coarse-grained), and the amount of natural variability in the estuary's water chemistry (even on a daily time-scale) all minimized the impact of the dredging activities. Results of this study will add to the limited body of empirical data that should be considered in evaluating future dredging permit applications related to shallow estuarine waterways.

Practical small-scale explosive seam welding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, L. J.

1983-01-01

Joining principles and variables, types of joints, capabilities, and current and potential applications are described for an explosive seam welding process developed at NASA Langley Research Center. Variable small quantities of RDX explosive in a ribbon configuration are used to create narrow (less than 0.5 inch), long length, uniform, hermetrically sealed joints that exhibit parent metal properties in a wide variety of metals, alloys, and combinations. The first major all application of the process is the repair of four nuclear reactors in Canada. Potential applications include pipelines, sealing of vessels, and assembly of large space structures.

Downscaling Ocean Conditions: Initial Results using a Quasigeostrophic and Realistic Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2014-05-01

Previous theoretical work (Henshaw et al, 2003) has shown that the small-scale modes of variability of solutions of the unforced, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and Burgers' equation, can be reconstructed with surprisingly high accuracy from the time history of a few of the large-scale modes. Motivated by this theoretical work we first describe a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large scales in order to recover the small scale oceanic variability. The method is based on nudging in specific wavebands and frequencies and is similar to the so-called spectral nudging method that has been used successfully for atmospheric downscaling with limited area models (e.g. von Storch et al., 2000). The validity of the method is tested using a quasigestrophic model configured to simulate a double ocean gyre separated by an unstable mid-ocean jet. It is shown that important features of the ocean circulation including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and associated pinch-off eddies can indeed be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scales modes. The benefit of assimilating additional time series of observations from a limited number of locations, that alone are too sparse to significantly improve the recovery of the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques, is also demonstrated using several twin experiments. The final part of the study outlines the application of the approach using a realistic high resolution (1/36 degree) model, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modeling framework, configured for the Scotian Shelf of the east coast of Canada. The large scale conditions used in this application are obtained from the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) + NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) global 1/12 degree analysis product. Henshaw, W., Kreiss, H.-O., Ystrom, J., 2003. Numerical experiments on the interaction between the larger- and the small-scale motion of the Navier-Stokes equations. Multiscale Modeling and Simulation 1, 119-149. von Storch, H., Langenberg, H., Feser, F., 2000. A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Monthly Weather Review 128, 3664-3673.

Impact of small-scale vegetation structure on tephra layer preservation

PubMed Central

Cutler, Nick A.; Shears, Olivia M.; Streeter, Richard T.; Dugmore, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The factors that influence tephra layer taphonomy are poorly understood, but vegetation cover is likely to play a role in the preservation of terrestrial tephra deposits. The impact of vegetation on tephra layer preservation is important because: 1) the morphology of tephra layers could record key characteristics of past land surfaces and 2) vegetation-driven variability in tephra thickness could affect attempts to infer eruption and dispersion parameters. We investigated small- (metre-) scale interactions between vegetation and a thin (<10 cm), recent tephra layer. We conducted surveys of vegetation structure and tephra thickness at two locations which received a similar tephra deposit, but had contrasting vegetation cover (moss vs shrub). The tephra layer was thicker and less variable under shrub cover. Vegetation structure and layer thickness were correlated on the moss site but not under shrub cover, where the canopy reduced the influence of understory vegetation on layer morphology. Our results show that vegetation structure can influence tephra layer thickness on both small and medium (site) scales. These findings suggest that some tephra layers may carry a signal of past vegetation cover. They also have implications for the sampling effort required to reliably estimate the parameters of initial deposits. PMID:27845415

Entropy of hydrological systems under small samples: Uncertainty and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Singh, Vijay P.; Zeng, Xiankui; Wang, Lachun; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Liyuan; Gu, Shenghua

2016-01-01

Entropy theory has been increasingly applied in hydrology in both descriptive and inferential ways. However, little attention has been given to the small-sample condition widespread in hydrological practice, where either hydrological measurements are limited or are even nonexistent. Accordingly, entropy estimated under this condition may incur considerable bias. In this study, small-sample condition is considered and two innovative entropy estimators, the Chao-Shen (CS) estimator and the James-Stein-type shrinkage (JSS) estimator, are introduced. Simulation tests are conducted with common distributions in hydrology, that lead to the best-performing JSS estimator. Then, multi-scale moving entropy-based hydrological analyses (MM-EHA) are applied to indicate the changing patterns of uncertainty of streamflow data collected from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, China. For further investigation into the intrinsic property of entropy applied in hydrological uncertainty analyses, correlations of entropy and other statistics at different time-scales are also calculated, which show connections between the concept of uncertainty and variability.

Validity of flowmeter data in heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, Marco

2017-04-01

Numerical simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of medium-scale sedimentary architecture and small-scale heterogeneity on the validity of the borehole flowmeter test, a widely used method for measuring hydraulic conductivity (K) at the scale required for detailed groundwater flow and solute transport simulations. Reference data from synthetic K fields representing the range of structures and small-scale heterogeneity typically observed in alluvial systems are compared with estimated values from numerical simulations of flowmeter tests. Systematic errors inherent in the flowmeter K estimates are significant when the reference K field structure deviates from the hypothetical perfectly stratified conceptual model at the basis of the interpretation method of flowmeter tests. Because of these errors, the true variability of the K field is underestimated and the distributions of the reference K data and log-transformed spatial increments are also misconstrued. The presented numerical analysis shows that the validity of flowmeter based K data depends on measureable parameters defining the architecture of the hydrofacies, the conductivity contrasts between the hydrofacies and the sub-facies-scale K variability. A preliminary geological characterization is therefore essential for evaluating the optimal approach for accurate K field characterization.

Time-variant Lagrangian transport formulation reduces aggregation bias of water and solute mean travel time in heterogeneous catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danesh-Yazdi, Mohammad; Botter, Gianluca; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2017-05-01

Lack of hydro-bio-chemical data at subcatchment scales necessitates adopting an aggregated system approach for estimating water and solute transport properties, such as residence and travel time distributions, at the catchment scale. In this work, we show that within-catchment spatial heterogeneity, as expressed in spatially variable discharge-storage relationships, can be appropriately encapsulated within a lumped time-varying stochastic Lagrangian formulation of transport. This time (variability) for space (heterogeneity) substitution yields mean travel times (MTTs) that are not significantly biased to the aggregation of spatial heterogeneity. Despite the significant variability of MTT at small spatial scales, there exists a characteristic scale above which the MTT is not impacted by the aggregation of spatial heterogeneity. Extensive simulations of randomly generated river networks reveal that the ratio between the characteristic scale and the mean incremental area is on average independent of river network topology and the spatial arrangement of incremental areas.

Instantaneous variance scaling of AIRS thermodynamic profiles using a circular area Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorrestijn, Jesse; Kahn, Brian H.; Teixeira, João; Irion, Fredrick W.

2018-05-01

Satellite observations are used to obtain vertical profiles of variance scaling of temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) in the atmosphere. A higher spatial resolution nadir retrieval at 13.5 km complements previous Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) investigations with 45 km resolution retrievals and enables the derivation of power law scaling exponents to length scales as small as 55 km. We introduce a variable-sized circular-area Monte Carlo methodology to compute exponents instantaneously within the swath of AIRS that yields additional insight into scaling behavior. While this method is approximate and some biases are likely to exist within non-Gaussian portions of the satellite observational swaths of T and q, this method enables the estimation of scale-dependent behavior within instantaneous swaths for individual tropical and extratropical systems of interest. Scaling exponents are shown to fluctuate between β = -1 and -3 at scales ≥ 500 km, while at scales ≤ 500 km they are typically near β ≈ -2, with q slightly lower than T at the smallest scales observed. In the extratropics, the large-scale β is near -3. Within the tropics, however, the large-scale β for T is closer to -1 as small-scale moist convective processes dominate. In the tropics, q exhibits large-scale β between -2 and -3. The values of β are generally consistent with previous works of either time-averaged spatial variance estimates, or aircraft observations that require averaging over numerous flight observational segments. The instantaneous variance scaling methodology is relevant for cloud parameterization development and the assessment of time variability of scaling exponents.

Why do large and small scales couple in a turbulent boundary layer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Promode R.

2011-11-01

Correlation measurement, which is not definitive, suggests that large and small scales in a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) couple. A TBL is modeled as a jungle of interacting nonlinear oscillators to explore the origin of the coupling. These oscillators have the inherent property of self-sustainability, disturbance rejection, and of self-referential phase reset whereby several oscillators can phase align (or have constant phase difference between them) when an ``external'' impulse is applied. Consequently, these properties of a TBL are accounted for: self-sustainability, return of the wake component after a disturbance is removed, and the formation of the 18o large structures, which are composed of a sequential train of hairpin vortices. The nonlinear ordinary differential equations of the oscillators are solved using an analog circuit for rapid solution. The post-bifurcation limit cycles are determined. A small scale and a large scale are akin to two different oscillators. The state variables from the two disparate interacting oscillators are shown to couple and the small scales appear at certain regions of the phase of the large scale. The coupling is a consequence of the nonlinear oscillatory behavior. Although state planes exist where the disparate scales appear de-superposed, all scales in a TBL are in fact coupled and they cannot be monochromatically isolated.

Dynamic Time Expansion and Compression Using Nonlinear Waveguides

DOEpatents

Findikoglu, Alp T.; Hahn, Sangkoo F.; Jia, Quanxi

2004-06-22

Dynamic time expansion or compression of a small amplitude input signal generated with an initial scale is performed using a nonlinear waveguide. A nonlinear waveguide having a variable refractive index is connected to a bias voltage source having a bias signal amplitude that is large relative to the input signal to vary the reflective index and concomitant speed of propagation of the nonlinear waveguide and an electrical circuit for applying the small amplitude signal and the large amplitude bias signal simultaneously to the nonlinear waveguide. The large amplitude bias signal with the input signal alters the speed of propagation of the small-amplitude signal with time in the nonlinear waveguide to expand or contract the initial time scale of the small-amplitude input signal.

Dynamic time expansion and compression using nonlinear waveguides

DOEpatents

Findikoglu, Alp T [Los Alamos, NM; Hahn, Sangkoo F [Los Alamos, NM; Jia, Quanxi [Los Alamos, NM

2004-06-22

Dynamic time expansion or compression of a small-amplitude input signal generated with an initial scale is performed using a nonlinear waveguide. A nonlinear waveguide having a variable refractive index is connected to a bias voltage source having a bias signal amplitude that is large relative to the input signal to vary the reflective index and concomitant speed of propagation of the nonlinear waveguide and an electrical circuit for applying the small-amplitude signal and the large amplitude bias signal simultaneously to the nonlinear waveguide. The large amplitude bias signal with the input signal alters the speed of propagation of the small-amplitude signal with time in the nonlinear waveguide to expand or contract the initial time scale of the small-amplitude input signal.

Lens-Aided Multi-Angle Spectroscopy (LAMAS) Reveals Small-Scale Outflow Structure in Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Paul J.

2006-06-01

Spectral differences between lensed quasar image components are common. Since lensing is intrinsically achromatic, these differences are typically explained as the effect of either microlensing, or as light path time delays sampling intrinsic quasar spectral variability. Here we advance a novel third hypothesis: some spectral differences are due to small line-of-sight differences through quasar disk wind outflows. In particular, we propose that variable spectral differences seen only in component A of the widest separation lens SDSS J1004+4112 are due to differential absorption along the sight lines. The absorber properties required by this hypothesis are akin to known broad absorption line (BAL) outflows but must have a broader, smoother velocity profile. We interpret the observed C IV emission-line variability as further evidence for spatial fine structure transverse to the line of sight. Since outflows are likely to be rotating, such absorber fine structure can consistently explain some of the UV and X-ray variability seen in AGNs. The implications are many: (1) Spectroscopic differences in other lensed objects may be due to this ``lens-aided multi-angle spectroscopy'' (LAMAS). (2) Outflows have fine structure on size scales of arcseconds, as seen from the nucleus. (3) Assuming either broad absorption line region sizes proposed in recent wind models, or typically assumed continuum emission region sizes, LAMAS and/or variability provide broadly consistent absorber size scale estimates of ~1015 cm. (4) Very broad smooth absorption may be ubiquitous in quasar spectra, even when no obvious troughs are seen.

A geostatistical analysis of small-scale spatial variability in bacterial abundance and community structure in salt marsh creek bank sediments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franklin, Rima B.; Blum, Linda K.; McComb, Alison C.; Mills, Aaron L.

2002-01-01

Small-scale variations in bacterial abundance and community structure were examined in salt marsh sediments from Virginia's eastern shore. Samples were collected at 5 cm intervals (horizontally) along a 50 cm elevation gradient, over a 215 cm horizontal transect. For each sample, bacterial abundance was determined using acridine orange direct counts and community structure was analyzed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprinting of whole-community DNA extracts. A geostatistical analysis was used to determine the degree of spatial autocorrelation among the samples, for each variable and each direction (horizontal and vertical). The proportion of variance in bacterial abundance that could be accounted for by the spatial model was quite high (vertical: 60%, horizontal: 73%); significant autocorrelation was found among samples separated by 25 cm in the vertical direction and up to 115 cm horizontally. In contrast, most of the variability in community structure was not accounted for by simply considering the spatial separation of samples (vertical: 11%, horizontal: 22%), and must reflect variability from other parameters (e.g., variation at other spatial scales, experimental error, or environmental heterogeneity). Microbial community patch size based upon overall similarity in community structure varied between 17 cm (vertical) and 35 cm (horizontal). Overall, variability due to horizontal position (distance from the creek bank) was much smaller than that due to vertical position (elevation) for both community properties assayed. This suggests that processes more correlated with elevation (e.g., drainage and redox potential) vary at a smaller scale (therefore producing smaller patch sizes) than processes controlled by distance from the creek bank. c2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Harbour porpoise distribution can vary at small spatiotemporal scales in energetic habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamins, Steven; van Geel, Nienke; Hastie, Gordon; Elliott, Jim; Wilson, Ben

2017-07-01

Marine habitat heterogeneity underpins species distribution and can be generated through interactions between physical and biological drivers at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is used worldwide to study potential impacts of marine industrial activities on cetaceans, but understanding of animals' site use at small spatiotemporal scales (<1 km, <1 day) remains limited. Small-scale variability in vocalising harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution within two Scottish marine renewable energy development (MRED) sites was investigated by deploying dense arrays of C-POD passive acoustic detectors at a wave energy test site (the European Marine Energy Centre [Billia Croo, Orkney]) and by a minor tidal-stream site (Scarba [Inner Hebrides]). Respective arrays consisted of 7 and 11 moorings containing two C-PODs each and were deployed for up to 55 days. Minimum inter-mooring distances varied between 300-600 m. All C-POD data were analysed at a temporal resolution of whole minutes, with each minute classified as 1 or 0 on the basis of presence/absence of porpoise click trains (Porpoise-Positive Minutes/PPMs). Porpoise detection rates were analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimation Equations (GEEs). Although there were many porpoise detections (wave test site: N=3,432; tidal-stream site: N=17,366), daily detection rates varied significantly within both arrays. Within the wave site array (<1 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 4.3 to 14.8 PPMs/day. Within the tidal-stream array (<2 km diameter), average daily detection rates varied from 10.3 to 49.7 PPMs/day. GAM-GEE model results for individual moorings within both arrays indicated linkages between porpoise presence and small-scale heterogeneity among different environmental covariates (e.g., tidal phase, time of day). Porpoise detection rates varied considerably but with coherent patterns between moorings only several hundred metres apart and within hours. These patterns presumably have ecological relevance. These results indicate that, in energetically active and heterogeneous areas, porpoises can display significant spatiotemporal variability in site use at scales of hundreds of metres and hours. Such variability will not be identified when using solitary moored PAM detectors (a common practice for site-based cetacean monitoring), but may be highly relevant for site-based impact assessments of MRED and other coastal developments. PAM arrays encompassing several detectors spread across a site therefore appear to be a more appropriate tool to study site-specific cetacean use of spatiotemporally heterogeneous habitat and assess the potential impacts of coastal and nearshore developments at small scales.

Non-Invasive Methods to Characterize Soil-Plant Interactions at Different Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaux, M.; Kemna, A.; Muench, M.; Oberdoerster, C.; Pohlmeier, A.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H.

2006-05-01

Root water uptake is a dynamic and non-linear process, which interacts with the soil natural variability and boundary conditions to generate heterogeneous spatial distributions of soil water. Soil-root fluxes are spatially variable due to heterogeneous gradients and hydraulic connections between soil and roots. While 1-D effective representation of the root water uptake has been successfully applied to predict transpiration and average water content profiles, finer spatial characterization of the water distribution may be needed when dealing with solute transport. Indeed, root water uptake affects the water velocity field, which has an effect on solute velocity and dispersion. Although this variability originates from small-scale processes, these may still play an important role at larger scales. Therefore, in addition to investigate the variability of the soil hydraulic properties, experimental and numerical tools for characterizing root water uptake (and its effects on soil water distribution) from the pore to the field scales are needed to predict in a proper way the solute transport. Obviously, non-invasive and modeling techniques which are helpful to achieve this objective will evolve with the scale of interest. At the pore scale, soil structure and root-soil interface phenomena have to be investigated to understand the interactions between soil and roots. Magnetic resonance imaging may help to monitor water gradients and water content changes around roots while spectral induced polarization techniques may be used to characterize the structure of the pore space. At the column scale, complete root architecture of small plants and water content depletion around roots can be imaged by magnetic resonance. At that scale, models should explicitly take into account the three-dimensional gradient dependency of the root water uptake, to be able to predict solute transport. At larger scales however, simplified models, which implicitly take into account the heterogeneous root water uptake along roots, should be preferred given the complexity of the system. At such scales, electrical resistance tomography or ground-penetrating radar can be used to map the water content changes and derive effective parameters for predicting solute transport.

Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Partitioning the factors of spatial variation in regeneration density of shade-tolerant tree species.

PubMed

Gravel, Dominique; Beaudet, Marilou; Messier, Christian

2008-10-01

Understanding coexistence of highly shade-tolerant tree species is a longstanding challenge for forest ecologists. A conceptual model for the coexistence of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and American beech (Fagus grandibfolia) has been proposed, based on a low-light survival/high-light growth trade-off, which interacts with soil fertility and small-scale spatiotemporal variation in the environment. In this study, we first tested whether the spatial distribution of seedlings and saplings can be predicted by the spatiotemporal variability of light availability and soil fertility, and second, the manner in which the process of environmental filtering changes with regeneration size. We evaluate the support for this hypothesis relative to the one for a neutral model, i.e., for seed rain density predicted from the distribution of adult trees. To do so, we performed intensive sampling over 86 quadrats (5 x 5 m) in a 0.24-ha plot in a mature maple-beech community in Quebec, Canada. Maple and beech abundance, soil characteristics, light availability, and growth history (used as a proxy for spatiotemporal variation in light availability) were finely measured to model variation in sapling composition across different size classes. Results indicate that the variables selected to model species distribution do effectively change with size, but not as predicted by the conceptual model. Our results show that variability in the environment is not sufficient to differentiate these species' distributions in space. Although species differ in their spatial distribution in the small size classes, they tend to correlate at the larger size class in which recruitment occurs. Overall, the results are not supportive of a model of coexistence based on small-scale variations in the environment. We propose that, at the scale of a local stand, the lack of fit of the model could result from the high similarity of species in the range of environmental conditions encountered, and we suggest that coexistence would be stable only at larger spatial scales at which variability in the environment is greater.

Desert bird associations with broad-scale boundary length: Applications in avian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.

2008-01-01

1. Current understanding regarding the effects of boundaries on bird communities has originated largely from studies of forest-non-forest boundaries in mesic systems. To assess whether broad-scale boundary length can affect bird community structure in deserts, and to identify patterns and predictors of species' associations useful in avian conservation, we studied relations between birds and boundary-length variables in Chihuahuan Desert landscapes. Operationally, a boundary was the border between two adjoining land covers, and broad-scale boundary length was the total length of such borders in a large area. 2. Within 2-km radius areas, we measured six boundary-length variables. We analysed bird-boundary relations for 26 species, tested for assemblage-level patterns in species' associations with boundary-length variables, and assessed whether body size, dispersal ability and cowbird-host status were correlates of these associations. 3. The abundances or occurrences of a significant majority of species were associated with boundary-length variables, and similar numbers of species were related positively and negatively to boundary-length variables. 4. Disproportionately small numbers of species were correlated with total boundary length, land-cover boundary length and shrubland-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for large proportions of boundary length). Disproportionately large numbers of species were correlated with roadside boundary length and riparian vegetation-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for small proportions of boundary length). Roadside boundary length was associated (positively and negatively) with the most species. 5. Species' associations with boundary-length variables were not correlated with body size, dispersal ability or cowbird-host status. 6. Synthesis and applications. For the species we studied, conservationists can use the regressions we report as working models to anticipate influences of boundary-length changes on bird abundance and occurrence, and to assess avifaunal composition for areas under consideration for protection. Boundary-length variables associated with a disproportionate or large number of species can be used as foci for landscape management. Assessing the underlying causes of bird-boundary relations may improve the prediction accuracy of associated models. We therefore advocate local- and broad-scale manipulative experiments involving the boundary types with which species were correlated, as indicated by the regressions. ?? 2008 The Authors.

New Statistical Model for Variability of Aerosol Optical Thickness: Theory and Application to MODIS Data over Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Mikhail Dmitrievic; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Marshak, Alexander; Levy, Robert; Cairns, Brian

2016-01-01

A novel model for the variability in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is presented. This model is based on the consideration of AOT fields as realizations of a stochastic process, that is the exponent of an underlying Gaussian process with a specific autocorrelation function. In this approach AOT fields have lognormal PDFs and structure functions having the correct asymptotic behavior at large scales. The latter is an advantage compared with fractal (scale-invariant) approaches. The simple analytical form of the structure function in the proposed model facilitates its use for the parameterization of AOT statistics derived from remote sensing data. The new approach is illustrated using a month-long global MODIS AOT dataset (over ocean) with 10 km resolution. It was used to compute AOT statistics for sample cells forming a grid with 5deg spacing. The observed shapes of the structure functions indicated that in a large number of cases the AOT variability is split into two regimes that exhibit different patterns of behavior: small-scale stationary processes and trends reflecting variations at larger scales. The small-scale patterns are suggested to be generated by local aerosols within the marine boundary layer, while the large-scale trends are indicative of elevated aerosols transported from remote continental sources. This assumption is evaluated by comparison of the geographical distributions of these patterns derived from MODIS data with those obtained from the GISS GCM. This study shows considerable potential to enhance comparisons between remote sensing datasets and climate models beyond regional mean AOTs.

Small-Scale Habitat Structure Modulates the Effects of No-Take Marine Reserves for Coral Reef Macroinvertebrates

PubMed Central

Dumas, Pascal; Jimenez, Haizea; Peignon, Christophe; Wantiez, Laurent; Adjeroud, Mehdi

2013-01-01

No-take marine reserves are one of the oldest and most versatile tools used across the Pacific for the conservation of reef resources, in particular for invertebrates traditionally targeted by local fishers. Assessing their actual efficiency is still a challenge in complex ecosystems such as coral reefs, where reserve effects are likely to be obscured by high levels of environmental variability. The goal of this study was to investigate the potential interference of small-scale habitat structure on the efficiency of reserves. The spatial distribution of widely harvested macroinvertebrates was surveyed in a large set of protected vs. unprotected stations from eleven reefs located in New Caledonia. Abundance, density and individual size data were collected along random, small-scale (20×1 m) transects. Fine habitat typology was derived with a quantitative photographic method using 17 local habitat variables. Marine reserves substantially augmented the local density, size structure and biomass of the target species. Density of Trochus niloticus and Tridacna maxima doubled globally inside the reserve network; average size was greater by 10 to 20% for T. niloticus. We demonstrated that the apparent success of protection could be obscured by marked variations in population structure occurring over short distances, resulting from small-scale heterogeneity in the reef habitat. The efficiency of reserves appeared to be modulated by the availability of suitable habitats at the decimetric scale (“microhabitats”) for the considered sessile/low-mobile macroinvertebrate species. Incorporating microhabitat distribution could significantly enhance the efficiency of habitat surrogacy, a valuable approach in the case of conservation targets focusing on endangered or emblematic macroinvertebrate or relatively sedentary fish species PMID:23554965

Implementing the DC Mode in Cosmological Simulations with Supercomoving Variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gnedin, Nickolay Y; Kravtsov, Andrey V; Rudd, Douglas H

2011-06-02

As emphasized by previous studies, proper treatment of the density fluctuation on the fundamental scale of a cosmological simulation volume - the 'DC mode' - is critical for accurate modeling of spatial correlations on scales ~> 10% of simulation box size. We provide further illustration of the effects of the DC mode on the abundance of halos in small boxes and show that it is straightforward to incorporate this mode in cosmological codes that use the 'supercomoving' variables. The equations governing evolution of dark matter and baryons recast with these variables are particularly simple and include the expansion factor, andmore » hence the effect of the DC mode, explicitly only in the Poisson equation.« less

Small-scale variation in ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an alpine meadow depends on plant biomass and species richness.

PubMed

Hirota, Mitsuru; Zhang, Pengcheng; Gu, Song; Shen, Haihua; Kuriyama, Takeo; Li, Yingnian; Tang, Yanhong

2010-07-01

Characterizing the spatial variation in the CO2 flux at both large and small scales is essential for precise estimation of an ecosystem's CO2 sink strength. However, little is known about small-scale CO2 flux variations in an ecosystem. We explored these variations in a Kobresia meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau in relation to spatial variability in species composition and biomass. We established 14 points and measured net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) in relation to vegetation biomass, species richness, and environmental variables at each point, using an automated chamber system during the 2005 growing season. Mean light-saturated NEP and GPP were 30.3 and 40.5 micromol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) [coefficient of variation (CV), 42.7 and 29.4], respectively. Mean Re at 20 degrees C soil temperature, Re(20), was -10.9 micromol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) (CV, 27.3). Re(20) was positively correlated with vegetation biomass. GPP(max) was positively correlated with species richness, but 2 of the 14 points were outliers. Vegetation biomass was the main determinant of spatial variation of Re, whereas species richness mainly affected that of GPP, probably reflecting the complexity of canopy structure and light partitioning in this small grassland patch.

Investigation of grain-scale microstructural variability in tantalum using crystal plasticity-finite element simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Hojun; Dingreville, Rémi; Deibler, Lisa A.

In this research, a crystal plasticity-finite element (CP-FE) model is used to investigate the effects of microstructural variability at a notch tip in tantalum single crystals and polycrystals. It is shown that at the macroscopic scale, the mechanical response of single crystals is sensitive to the crystallographic orientation while the response of polycrystals shows relatively small susceptibility to it. However, at the microscopic scale, the local stress and strain fields in the vicinity of the crack tip are completely determined by the local crystallographic orientation at the crack tip for both single and polycrystalline specimens with similar mechanical field distributions.more » Variability in the local metrics used (maximum von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain at 3% deformation) for 100 different realizations of polycrystals fluctuates by up to a factor of 2–7 depending on the local crystallographic texture. Comparison with experimental data shows that the CP model captures variability in stress–strain response of polycrystals that can be attributed to the grain-scale microstructural variability. In conclusion, this work provides a convenient approach to investigate fluctuations in the mechanical behavior of polycrystalline materials induced by grain morphology and crystallographic orientations.« less

Investigation of grain-scale microstructural variability in tantalum using crystal plasticity-finite element simulations

DOE PAGES

Lim, Hojun; Dingreville, Rémi; Deibler, Lisa A.; ...

2016-02-27

In this research, a crystal plasticity-finite element (CP-FE) model is used to investigate the effects of microstructural variability at a notch tip in tantalum single crystals and polycrystals. It is shown that at the macroscopic scale, the mechanical response of single crystals is sensitive to the crystallographic orientation while the response of polycrystals shows relatively small susceptibility to it. However, at the microscopic scale, the local stress and strain fields in the vicinity of the crack tip are completely determined by the local crystallographic orientation at the crack tip for both single and polycrystalline specimens with similar mechanical field distributions.more » Variability in the local metrics used (maximum von Mises stress and equivalent plastic strain at 3% deformation) for 100 different realizations of polycrystals fluctuates by up to a factor of 2–7 depending on the local crystallographic texture. Comparison with experimental data shows that the CP model captures variability in stress–strain response of polycrystals that can be attributed to the grain-scale microstructural variability. In conclusion, this work provides a convenient approach to investigate fluctuations in the mechanical behavior of polycrystalline materials induced by grain morphology and crystallographic orientations.« less

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Ecological succession, hydrology and carbon acquisition of biological soil crusts measured at the micro-scale.

PubMed

Tighe, Matthew; Haling, Rebecca E; Flavel, Richard J; Young, Iain M

2012-01-01

The hydrological characteristics of biological soil crusts (BSCs) are not well understood. In particular the relationship between runoff and BSC surfaces at relatively large (>1 m(2)) scales is ambiguous. Further, there is a dearth of information on small scale (mm to cm) hydrological characterization of crust types which severely limits any interpretation of trends at larger scales. Site differences and broad classifications of BSCs as one soil surface type rather than into functional form exacerbate the problem. This study examines, for the first time, some hydrological characteristics and related surface variables of a range of crust types at one site and at a small scale (sub mm to mm). X-ray tomography and fine scale hydrological measurements were made on intact BSCs, followed by C and C isotopic analyses. A 'hump' shaped relationship was found between the successional stage/sensitivity to physical disturbance classification of BSCs and their hydrophobicity, and a similar but 'inverse hump' relationship exists with hydraulic conductivity. Several bivariate relationships were found between hydrological variables. Hydraulic conductivity and hydrophobicity of BSCs were closely related but this association was confounded by crust type. The surface coverage of crust and the microporosity 0.5 mm below the crust surface were closely associated irrespective of crust type. The δ (13)C signatures of the BSCs were also related to hydraulic conductivity, suggesting that the hydrological characteristics of BSCs alter the chemical processes of their immediate surroundings via the physiological response (C acquisition) of the crust itself. These small scale results illustrate the wide range of hydrological properties associated with BSCs, and suggest associations between the ecological successional stage/functional form of BSCs and their ecohydrological role that needs further examination.

Sensitivity of the two-dimensional shearless mixing layer to the initial turbulent kinetic energy and integral length scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathali, M.; Deshiri, M. Khoshnami

2016-04-01

The shearless mixing layer is generated from the interaction of two homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) fields with different integral scales ℓ1 and ℓ2 and different turbulent kinetic energies E1 and E2. In this study, the sensitivity of temporal evolutions of two-dimensional, incompressible shearless mixing layers to the parametric variations of ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 is investigated. The sensitivity methodology is based on the nonintrusive approach; using direct numerical simulation and generalized polynomial chaos expansion. The analysis is carried out at Reℓ 1=90 for the high-energy HIT region and different integral length scale ratios 1 /4 ≤ℓ1/ℓ2≤4 and turbulent kinetic energy ratios 1 ≤E1/E2≤30 . It is found that the most influential parameter on the variability of the mixing layer evolution is the turbulent kinetic energy while variations of the integral length scale show a negligible influence on the flow field variability. A significant level of anisotropy and intermittency is observed in both large and small scales. In particular, it is found that large scales have higher levels of intermittency and sensitivity to the variations of ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 compared to the small scales. Reconstructed response surfaces of the flow field intermittency and the turbulent penetration depth show monotonic dependence on ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 . The mixing layer growth rate and the mixing efficiency both show sensitive dependence on the initial condition parameters. However, the probability density function of these quantities shows relatively small solution variations in response to the variations of the initial condition parameters.

A Blind Survey for AGN in the Kepler Field through Optical Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olling, Robert; Shaya, E. J.; Mushotzky, R.

2013-01-01

We present an initial analysis of three quarters of Kepler LLC time series of 400 small galaxies. The Kepler LLC data is sampled about twice per hour, and allows us to investigate variability on time scales between about one day and one month. The calibrated Kepler LLC light curves still contain many instrumental effects that can not be taken out in a robust manner. Instead, our analysis relies on the similarity of variability measures in the three independent quarters to decide if an galaxy shows variability, or not. We estimate that roughly 15% of our small galaxies shows variability at levels exceeding several parts per thousand (mmag) on timescales of days to weeks. However, this estimate is probably uncertain by a factor of two. Our data is more sensitive by several factors of ten as compared to extant data sets.

Sensitivity of soil respiration to variability in soil moisture and temperature in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; M. Detto; W.L. Silver

2013-01-01

Precipitation and temperature are important drivers of soil respiration. The role of moisture and temperature are generally explored at seasonal or inter-annual timescales; however, significant variability also occurs on hourly to daily time-scales. We used small (1.54 m2), throughfall exclusion shelters to evaluate the role soil moisture and temperature as temporal...

The delineation and interpretation of the earth's gravity field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, Bruce D.

1988-01-01

A series of fluid dynamical experiments in variable viscosity fluid have been made and are in progress to study: (1) the onset of small scale convection relative to lithosphere growth rate; (2) the influence of paired fracture zones in modulating the horizontal scale of small scale convection; (3) the influence of the mantle vertical viscosity structure on determing the mode of small scale convection; and (4) the 3-D and temporal evolution of flows beneath a high viscosity lid. These experiments extend and amplify the present experimental work that has produced small scale convection beneath a downward-moving solidification front. Rapid growth of a high viscosity lid stifles the early onset of convection such that convection only begins once the lithosphere is older than a certain minimum age. The interplay of this convection with both the structure of the lithosphere and mantle provide a fertile field of investigation into the origin of geoid, gravity, and topographic anomalies in the central Pacific. These highly correlated fields of intermediate wavelength (approximately 200 to 2000 km), but not the larger wavelengths. It is the ultimate, dynamic origin of this class of anomalies that is sought in this investigation.

Solving the puzzle of discrepant quasar variability on monthly time-scales implied by SDSS and CRTS data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suberlak, Krzysztof; Ivezić, Željko; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Graham, Matthew; Sesar, Branimir

2017-12-01

We present an improved photometric error analysis for the 7 100 CRTS (Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey) optical light curves for quasars from the SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) Stripe 82 catalogue. The SDSS imaging survey has provided a time-resolved photometric data set, which greatly improved our understanding of the quasar optical continuum variability: Data for monthly and longer time-scales are consistent with a damped random walk (DRW). Recently, newer data obtained by CRTS provided puzzling evidence for enhanced variability, compared to SDSS results, on monthly time-scales. Quantitatively, SDSS results predict about 0.06 mag root-mean-square (rms) variability for monthly time-scales, while CRTS data show about a factor of 2 larger rms, for spectroscopically confirmed SDSS quasars. Our analysis has successfully resolved this discrepancy as due to slightly underestimated photometric uncertainties from the CRTS image processing pipelines. As a result, the correction for observational noise is too small and the implied quasar variability is too large. The CRTS photometric error correction factors, derived from detailed analysis of non-variable SDSS standard stars that were re-observed by CRTS, are about 20-30 per cent, and result in reconciling quasar variability behaviour implied by the CRTS data with earlier SDSS results. An additional analysis based on independent light curve data for the same objects obtained by the Palomar Transient Factory provides further support for this conclusion. In summary, the quasar variability constraints on weekly and monthly time-scales from SDSS, CRTS and PTF surveys are mutually compatible, as well as consistent with DRW model.

Similarity and scale in catchment storm response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Beven, Keith

1993-01-01

Until recently, very little progress had been made in understanding the relationship between small-scale variability of topography, soil, and rainfalls and the storm response seen at the catchment scale. The work reviewed here represents the first attempt at a systematic theoretical framework for such understanding in the context of surface runoff generation by different processes. The parameterization of hydrological processes over a range of scales is examined, and the concept of the 'representative elementary area' (REA) is introduced. The REA is a fundamental scale for catchment modeling at which continuum assumptions can be applied for the spatially variable controls and parameters, and spatial patterns no longer have to be considered explicitly. The investigation of scale leads into the concept of hydrologic similarity in which the effects of the environmental controls on runoff generation and flood frequency response be investigated independently of catchment scale. The paper reviews the authors' initial results and hopefully will motivate others to also investigate the issues of hydrologic scale and similarity.

Temperature Variability Associated with the Middle Atmosphere Electrodynamics (MAE-1) Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidlin, F. J.

1999-01-01

Meteorological rockets launched during the Middle Atmosphere Electrodynamics (MAE-1) Campaign in October 1980 from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR), Norway, exhibited large and unexpected temperature variability. Temperatures were found to vary as much as 20 C within a few hours and demonstrated a similar type of variability from one day to the next. Following examination of the reduced rocketsonde profiles the question was raised whether the observed variability was due to natural atmospheric variability or instrument malfunction. Small-scale variability, as observed, may result from one or multiple sources, e.g., intense storms upstream from the observing site, orography such as mountain waves off of the Greenland Plateau, convective activity, gravity waves, etc. Arranging the observations spaced over time showed that the perturbations moved downward. Prior to MAE-1 very few small rocketsonde measurements had been launched from ARR, thus the quality of the initial measurements in early October caused concern when the large variability was noted. We discuss the errors of the rocketsonde measurements, graphically review the nature of the variability observed, compare the data with other measurements, and postulate a possible cause for the variability.

Scaling of Directed Dynamical Small-World Networks with Random Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Chen-Ping; Xiong, Shi-Jie; Tian, Ying-Jie; Li, Nan; Jiang, Ke-Sheng

2004-05-01

A dynamical model of small-world networks, with directed links which describe various correlations in social and natural phenomena, is presented. Random responses of sites to the input message are introduced to simulate real systems. The interplay of these ingredients results in the collective dynamical evolution of a spinlike variable S(t) of the whole network. The global average spreading length s and average spreading time s are found to scale as p-αln(N with different exponents. Meanwhile, S(t) behaves in a duple scaling form for N≫N*: S˜f(p-βqγt˜), where p and q are rewiring and external parameters, α, β, and γ are scaling exponents, and f(t˜) is a universal function. Possible applications of the model are discussed.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Searching for the right scale in catchment hydrology: the effect of soil spatial variability in simulated states and fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Gabriele; Zink, Matthias; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Attinger, Sabine

2017-04-01

The advances in computer science and the availability of new detailed data-sets have led to a growing number of distributed hydrological models applied to finer and finer grid resolutions for larger and larger catchment areas. It was argued, however, that this trend does not necessarily guarantee better understanding of the hydrological processes or it is even not necessary for specific modelling applications. In the present study, this topic is further discussed in relation to the soil spatial heterogeneity and its effect on simulated hydrological state and fluxes. To this end, three methods are developed and used for the characterization of the soil heterogeneity at different spatial scales. The methods are applied at the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as example. The different soil realizations are assessed regarding their impact on simulated state and fluxes using the distributed hydrological model mHM. The results are analysed by aggregating the model outputs at different spatial scales based on the Representative Elementary Scale concept (RES) proposed by Refsgaard et al. (2016). The analysis is further extended in the present study by aggregating the model output also at different temporal scales. The results show that small scale soil variabilities are not relevant when the integrated hydrological responses are considered e.g., simulated streamflow or average soil moisture over sub-catchments. On the contrary, these small scale soil variabilities strongly affect locally simulated states and fluxes i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated at the grid resolution. A clear trade-off is also detected by aggregating the model output by spatial and temporal scales. Despite the scale at which the soil variabilities are (or are not) relevant is not universal, the RES concept provides a simple and effective framework to quantify the predictive capability of distributed models and to identify the need for further model improvements e.g., finer resolution input. For this reason, the integration in this analysis of all the relevant input factors (e.g., precipitation, vegetation, geology) could provide a strong support for the definition of the right scale for each specific model application. In this context, however, the main challenge for a proper model assessment will be the correct characterization of the spatio- temporal variability of each input factor. Refsgaard, J.C., Højberg, A.L., He, X., Hansen, A.L., Rasmussen, S.H., Stisen, S., 2016. Where are the limits of model predictive capabilities?: Representative Elementary Scale - RES. Hydrol. Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.11029

Development of a microscale land use regression model for predicting NO2 concentrations at a heavy trafficked suburban area in Auckland, NZ.

PubMed

Weissert, L F; Salmond, J A; Miskell, G; Alavi-Shoshtari, M; Williams, D E

2018-04-01

Land use regression (LUR) analysis has become a key method to explain air pollutant concentrations at unmeasured sites at city or country scales, but little is known about the applicability of LUR at microscales. We present a microscale LUR model developed for a heavy trafficked section of road in Auckland, New Zealand. We also test the within-city transferability of LUR models developed at different spatial scales (local scale and city scale). Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) was measured during summer at 40 sites and a LUR model was developed based on standard criteria. The results showed that LUR models are able to capture the microscale variability with the model explaining 66% of the variability in NO 2 concentrations. Predictor variables identified at this scale were street width, distance to major road, presence of awnings and number of bus stops, with the latter three also being important determinants at the local scale. This highlights the importance of street and building configurations for individual exposure at the street level. However, within-city transferability was limited with the number of bus stops being the only significant predictor variable at all spatial scales and locations tested, indicating the strong influence of diesel emissions related to bus traffic. These findings show that air quality monitoring is necessary at a high spatial density within cities in capturing small-scale variability in NO 2 concentrations at the street level and assessing individual exposure to traffic related air pollutants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

RACORO Extended-Term Aircraft Observations of Boundary-Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogelmann, Andrew M.; McFarquhar, Greg M.; Ogren, John A.; Turner, David D.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feingold, Graham; Long, Charles N.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Collins, Don R.;

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Wong, Takmeng; Allan, Richard; Slingo, Anthony; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Soden, Brian J.; Gordon, C. T.; Miller, Alvin J.; Yang, Shi-Keng; Randall, David R.;

Recent developments in VSD imaging of small neuronal networks

PubMed Central

Hill, Evan S.; Bruno, Angela M.

2014-01-01

Voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) imaging is a powerful technique that can provide, in single experiments, a large-scale view of network activity unobtainable with traditional sharp electrode recording methods. Here we review recent work using VSDs to study small networks and highlight several results from this approach. Topics covered include circuit mapping, network multifunctionality, the network basis of decision making, and the presence of variably participating neurons in networks. Analytical tools being developed and applied to large-scale VSD imaging data sets are discussed, and the future prospects for this exciting field are considered. PMID:25225295

Small area estimation for semicontinuous data.

PubMed

Chandra, Hukum; Chambers, Ray

2016-03-01

Survey data often contain measurements for variables that are semicontinuous in nature, i.e. they either take a single fixed value (we assume this is zero) or they have a continuous, often skewed, distribution on the positive real line. Standard methods for small area estimation (SAE) based on the use of linear mixed models can be inefficient for such variables. We discuss SAE techniques for semicontinuous variables under a two part random effects model that allows for the presence of excess zeros as well as the skewed nature of the nonzero values of the response variable. In particular, we first model the excess zeros via a generalized linear mixed model fitted to the probability of a nonzero, i.e. strictly positive, value being observed, and then model the response, given that it is strictly positive, using a linear mixed model fitted on the logarithmic scale. Empirical results suggest that the proposed method leads to efficient small area estimates for semicontinuous data of this type. We also propose a parametric bootstrap method to estimate the MSE of the proposed small area estimator. These bootstrap estimates of the MSE are compared to the true MSE in a simulation study. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhanja, Soumendra; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2016-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Spatio-temporal variability of groundwater storage in India.

PubMed

Bhanja, Soumendra N; Rodell, Matthew; Li, Bailing; Mukherjee, Abhijit

2017-01-01

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent). In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Modelling solute dispersion in periodic heterogeneous porous media: Model benchmarking against intermediate scale experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majdalani, Samer; Guinot, Vincent; Delenne, Carole; Gebran, Hicham

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to theoretical and experimental investigations of solute dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. Dispersion in heterogenous porous media has been reported to be scale-dependent, a likely indication that the proposed dispersion models are incompletely formulated. A high quality experimental data set of breakthrough curves in periodic model heterogeneous porous media is presented. In contrast with most previously published experiments, the present experiments involve numerous replicates. This allows the statistical variability of experimental data to be accounted for. Several models are benchmarked against the data set: the Fickian-based advection-dispersion, mobile-immobile, multirate, multiple region advection dispersion models, and a newly proposed transport model based on pure advection. A salient property of the latter model is that its solutions exhibit a ballistic behaviour for small times, while tending to the Fickian behaviour for large time scales. Model performance is assessed using a novel objective function accounting for the statistical variability of the experimental data set, while putting equal emphasis on both small and large time scale behaviours. Besides being as accurate as the other models, the new purely advective model has the advantages that (i) it does not exhibit the undesirable effects associated with the usual Fickian operator (namely the infinite solute front propagation speed), and (ii) it allows dispersive transport to be simulated on every heterogeneity scale using scale-independent parameters.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

The effects of small-scale, homelike facilities for older people with dementia on residents, family caregivers and staff: design of a longitudinal, quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Verbeek, Hilde; van Rossum, Erik; Zwakhalen, Sandra M G; Ambergen, Ton; Kempen, Gertrudis I J M; Hamers, Jan P H

2009-01-20

Small-scale and homelike facilities for older people with dementia are rising in current dementia care. In these facilities, a small number of residents live together and form a household with staff. Normal, daily life and social participation are emphasized. It is expected that these facilities improve residents' quality of life. Moreover, it may have a positive influence on staff's job satisfaction and families involvement and satisfaction with care. However, effects of these small-scale and homelike facilities have hardly been investigated. Since the number of people with dementia increases, and institutional long-term care is more and more organized in small-scale and homelike facilities, more research into effects is necessary. This paper presents the design of a study investigating effects of small-scale living facilities in the Netherlands on residents, family caregivers and nursing staff. A longitudinal, quasi-experimental study is carried out, in which 2 dementia care settings are compared: small-scale living facilities and regular psychogeriatric wards in traditional nursing homes. Data is collected from residents, their family caregivers and nursing staff at baseline and after 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Approximately 2 weeks prior to baseline measurement, residents are screened on cognition and activities of daily living (ADL). Based on this screening profile, residents in psychogeriatric wards are matched to residents living in small-scale living facilities. The primary outcome measure for residents is quality of life. In addition, neuropsychiatric symptoms, depressive symptoms and social engagement are assessed. Involvement with care, perceived burden and satisfaction with care provision are primary outcome variables for family caregivers. The primary outcomes for nursing staff are job satisfaction and motivation. Furthermore, job characteristics social support, autonomy and workload are measured. A process evaluation is performed to investigate to what extent small-scale living facilities and psychogeriatric wards are designed as they were intended. In addition, participants' satisfaction and experiences with small-scale living facilities are investigated. A longitudinal, quasi-experimental study is presented to investigate effects of small-scale living facilities. Although some challenges concerning this design exist, it is currently the most feasible method to assess effects of this relatively new dementia care setting.

Homogenization analysis of invasion dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes with differential bias and motility.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P

2018-07-01

Animal movement behaviors vary spatially in response to environmental heterogeneity. An important problem in spatial ecology is to determine how large-scale population growth and dispersal patterns emerge within highly variable landscapes. We apply the method of homogenization to study the large-scale behavior of a reaction-diffusion-advection model of population growth and dispersal. Our model includes small-scale variation in the directed and random components of movement and growth rates, as well as large-scale drift. Using the homogenized model we derive simple approximate formulas for persistence conditions and asymptotic invasion speeds, which are interpreted in terms of residence index. The homogenization results show good agreement with numerical solutions for environments with a high degree of fragmentation, both with and without periodicity at the fast scale. The simplicity of the formulas, and their connection to residence index make them appealing for studying the large-scale effects of a variety of small-scale movement behaviors.

Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River

PubMed Central

Radinger, Johannes; Wolter, Christian; Kail, Jochem

2015-01-01

Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species’ presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the importance of considering habitat at spatial scales larger than the sampling site, and (iii) that the importance of (river morphological) habitat characteristics differs depending on the spatial scale. PMID:26569119

Submesoscale Sea Surface Temperature Variability from UAV and Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, S. L.; Emery, W. J.; Tandy, W., Jr.; Good, W. S.

2017-12-01

Technological advances in spatial resolution of observations have revealed the importance of short-lived ocean processes with scales of O(1km). These submesoscale processes play an important role for the transfer of energy from the meso- to small scales and for generating significant spatial and temporal intermittency in the upper ocean, critical for the mixing of the oceanic boundary layer. Submesoscales have been observed in sea surface temperatures (SST) from satellites. Satellite SST measurements are spatial averages over the footprint of the satellite. When the variance of the SST distribution within the footprint is small, the average value is representative of the SST over the whole pixel. If the variance is large, the spatial heterogeneity is a source of uncertainty in satellite derived SSTs. Here we show evidence that the submesoscale variability in SSTs at spatial scales of 1km is responsible for the spatial variability within satellite footprints. Previous studies of the spatial variability in SST, using ship-based radiometric data suggested that variability at scales smaller than 1 km is significant and affects the uncertainty of satellite-derived skin SSTs. We examine data collected by a calibrated thermal infrared radiometer, the Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST), flown on a UAV over the Arctic Ocean and compare them with coincident measurements from the MODIS spaceborne radiometer to assess the spatial variability of SST within 1 km pixels. By taking the standard deviation of all the BESST measurements within individual MODIS pixels we show that significant spatial variability exists within the footprints. The distribution of the surface variability measured by BESST shows a peak value of O(0.1K) with 95% of the pixels showing σ < 0.45K. More importantly, high-variability pixels are located at density fronts in the marginal ice zone, which are a primary source of submesoscale intermittency near the surface in the Arctic Ocean. Wavenumber spectra of the BESST SSTs indicate a spectral slope of -2, consistent with the presence of submesoscale processes. Furthermore, not only is the BESST wavenumber spectra able to match the MODIS SST spectra well, but also extends the spectral slope of -2 by 2 decades relative to MODIS, from wavelengths of 8km to 0.08km.

Small-scale and mesoscale lake surface water temperature structure: Thermography and in situ measurements from Lake Geneva, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irani Rahaghi, Abolfazl; Lemmin, Ulrich; Bouffard, Damien; Riffler, Michael; Wunderle, Stefan; Barry, Andrew

2017-04-01

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT), which varies spatially and temporarily, reflects meteorological and climatological forcing more than any other physical lake parameter. There are different data sources for LSWT mapping, including remote sensing and in situ measurements. Depending on cloud cover, satellite data can depict large-scale thermal patterns, but not the meso- or small-scale processes. Meso-scale thermography allows complementing (and hence ground-truth) satellite imagery at the sub-pixel scale. A Balloon Launched Imaging and Monitoring Platform (BLIMP) was used to measure the LSWT at the meso-scale. The BLIMP consists of a small balloon tethered to a boat and is equipped with thermal and RGB cameras, as well as other instrumentation for geo-location and communication. A feature matching-based algorithm was implemented to create composite thermal images. Simultaneous ground-truthing of the BLIMP data were achieved using an autonomous craft measuring among other in situ surface/near surface temperatures, radiation and meteorological data. Latent and sensible surface heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk parameterization algorithm based on similarity theory. Results are presented for the day-time stratified low wind speed (up to 3 ms-1) conditions over Lake Geneva for two field campaigns, each of 6 h on 18 March and 19 July 2016. The meso-scale temperature field ( 1-m pixel resolution) had a range and standard deviation of 2.4°C and 0.3°C, respectively, over a 1-km2 area (typical satellite pixel size). Interestingly, at the sub-pixel scale, various temporal and spatial thermal structures are evident - an obvious example being streaks in the along-wind direction during March, which we hypothesize are caused by the steady 3 h wind condition. The results also show that the spatial variability of the estimated total heat flux is due to the corresponding variability of the longwave cooling from the water surface and the latent heat flux.

A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

2014-12-01

Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

Characterizing grazing disturbance in semiarid ecosystems across broad scales, using diverse indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Tausch, R.J.; Brussard, P.F.

2003-01-01

Although management and conservation strategies continue to move toward broader spatial scales and consideration of many taxonomic groups simultaneously, researchers have struggled to characterize responses to disturbance at these scales. Most studies of disturbance by feral grazers investigate effects on only one or two ecosystem elements across small spatial scales, limiting their applicability to ecosystem-level management. To address this inadequacy, in 1997 and 1998 we examined disturbance created by feral horses (Equus caballus) in nine mountain ranges of the western Great Basin, USA, using plants, small mammals, ants, and soil compaction as indicators. Nine horse-occupied and 10 horse-removed sites were stratified into high- and low-elevation groups, and all sites at each elevation had similar vegetation type, aspect, slope gradient, and recent (≥15-yr) fire and livestock-grazing histories. Using reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses, we compared relationships among sites using five data sets: abiotic variables, percent cover by plant species, an index of abundance by plant species, 10 disturbance-sensitive response variables, and grass and shrub species considered “key” indicators by land managers. Although reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses of percent cover, abiotic variables, and key species suggested relationships between sites influenced largely by biogeography (i.e., mountain range), disturbance-sensitive variables clearly segregated horse-occupied and horse-removed sites. These analyses suggest that the influence of feral horses on many Great Basin ecosystem attributes is not being detected by monitoring only palatable plant species. We recommend development of an expanded monitoring strategy based not only on established vegetation measurements investigating forage consumption, but also including disturbance-sensitive variables (e.g., soil surface hardness, abundance of ant mounds) that more completely reflect the suite of effects that a large-bodied grazer may impose on mountain ecosystems, independent of vegetation differences. By providing a broader-based mechanism for detection of adverse effects, this strategy would provide management agencies with defensible data in a sociopolitical arena that has been embroiled in conflict for several decades.

Characterizing grazing disturbance in semiarid ecosystems across broad spatial scales using multiple indices.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Tausch, Robin J.; Brussard, Peter F.

2003-01-01

Although management and conservation strategies continue to move toward broader spatial scales and consideration of many taxonomic groups simultaneously, researchers have struggled to characterize responses to disturbance at these scales. Most studies of disturbance by feral grazers investigate effects on only one or two ecosystem elements across small spatial scales, limiting their applicability to ecosystem-level management. To address this inadequacy, in 1997 and 1998 we examined disturbance created by feral horses (Equus caballus) in nine mountain ranges of the western Great Basin, USA, using plants, small mammals, ants, and soil compaction as indicators. Nine horse-occupied and 10 horse-removed sites were stratified into high- and low-elevation groups, and all sites at each elevation had similar vegetation type, aspect, slope gradient, and recent (≥15-yr) fire and livestock-grazing histories. Using reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses, we compared relationships among sites using five data sets: abiotic variables, percent cover by plant species, an index of abundance by plant species, 10 disturbance-sensitive response variables, and grass and shrub species considered “key” indicators by land managers. Although reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses of percent cover, abiotic variables, and key species suggested relationships between sites influenced largely by biogeography (i.e., mountain range), disturbance-sensitive variables clearly segregated horse-occupied and horse-removed sites. These analyses suggest that the influence of feral horses on many Great Basin ecosystem attributes is not being detected by monitoring only palatable plant species. We recommend development of an expanded monitoring strategy based not only on established vegetation measurements investigating forage consumption, but also including disturbance-sensitive variables (e.g., soil surface hardness, abundance of ant mounds) that more completely reflect the suite of effects that a large-bodied grazer may impose on mountain ecosystems, independent of vegetation differences. By providing a broader-based mechanism for detection of adverse effects, this strategy would provide management agencies with defensible data in a sociopolitical arena that has been embroiled in conflict for several decades.

Comparison between fully distributed model and semi-distributed model in urban hydrology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Giangola-Murzyn, Agathe; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe

2013-04-01

Water management in urban areas is becoming more and more complex, especially because of a rapid increase of impervious areas. There will also possibly be an increase of extreme precipitation due to climate change. The aims of the devices implemented to handle the large amount of water generate by urban areas such as storm water retention basins are usually twofold: ensure pluvial flood protection and water depollution. These two aims imply opposite management strategies. To optimize the use of these devices there is a need to implement urban hydrological models and improve fine-scale rainfall estimation, which is the most significant input. In this paper we suggest to compare two models and their sensitivity to small-scale rainfall variability on a 2.15 km2 urban area located in the County of Val-de-Marne (South-East of Paris, France). The average impervious coefficient is approximately 34%. In this work two types of models are used. The first one is CANOE which is semi-distributed. Such models are widely used by practitioners for urban hydrology modeling and urban water management. Indeed, they are easily configurable and the computation time is reduced, but these models do not take fully into account either the variability of the physical properties or the variability of the precipitations. An alternative is to use distributed models that are harder to configure and require a greater computation time, but they enable a deeper analysis (especially at small scales and upstream) of the processes at stake. We used the Multi-Hydro fully distributed model developed at the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. It is an interacting core between open source software packages, each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environment. Four heavy rainfall events that occurred between 2009 and 2011 are analyzed. The data comes from the Météo-France radar mosaic and the resolution is 1 km in space and 5 min in time. The closest radar of the Météo-France network is a C-band one located at 37 km West. In this work we compare the hydrological response of two models for the 4 rainfall events first with the available radar data. Then a particular focus is made on the impact of small-scale unmeasured rainfall variability (i.e. occurring at scales below the available one). More precisely scaling properties of rainfall are used to generate an ensemble of downscaled rainfall fields (simply by continuing the underlying cascade process whose relevant parameters are estimated on the available range of scales). An ensemble of hydrological responses is then simulated, and the variability within it analyzed. It appears that the associated uncertainty is significant and should be taken into account. Finally we will discuss the interest of deploying X-band radars (which provide an hectometric resolution) in urban environment and the potential benefits of using these models and small-scale rainfall data for the management of sewerage and retentions basin. Further analysis on these issues will be carried out next year with the installation of an X-band radar near Marne-la-Vallée (located at roughly 10 Km of the studied catchment) in the framework of the RainGain project (European project financed by the Interreg IVB funds).

Drivers of small scale variability in soil-atmosphere fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 in a forest soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, Martin; Nicolai, Clara; Wheeler, Denis; Lang, Friedeike; Paulus, Sinikka

2016-04-01

Soil-atmosphere fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 can vary on different spatial scales, on large scales between ecosystems but also within apparently homogenous sites. While CO2 and CH4 consumption is rather evenly distibuted in well aerated soils, the production of N2O and CH4 seems to occur at hot spots that can be associated with anoxic or suboxic conditions. Small-scale variability in soil properties is well-known from field soil assesment, affecting also soil aeration and thus theoretically, greenhouse gas fluxes. In many cases different plant species are associated with different soil conditions and vegetation mapping should therefor combined with soil mapping. Our research objective was explaining the small scale variability of greenhouse gas fluxes in an apparently homogeneous 50 years old Scots Pine stand in a former riparian flood plain.We combined greenhouse gas measurements and soil physical lab measurments with field soil assessment and vegetation mapping. Measurements were conducted with at 60 points at a plot of 30 X 30 m at the Hartheim monitoring site (SW Germany). For greenhouse gas measurements a non-steady state chamber system and laser analyser, and a photoacoustic analyser were used. Our study shows that the well aerated site was a substantial sink for atmospheric CH4 (-2.4 nmol/m² s) and also a for N2O (-0.4 nmol/m² s), but less pronounced, whereas CO2 production was a magnitude larger (2.6 μmol/m² s). The spatial variability of the CH4 consumption of the soils could be explained by the variability of the soil gas diffusivity (measured in situ + using soil cores). Deviations of this clear trend were only observed at points where decomposing woody debris was directly under the litter layer. Soil texture ranged from gravel, coarse sand, fine sand to pure silt, with coarser texture having higher soil gas diffusivity. Changes in texture were rather abrupt at some positions or gradual at other positions, and were well reflected in the vegetation structure. On patches of gravel and coarse sand there was hardly any ground vegatation, and a shrublayer was found only at silty patches Our results indicate that a stratification and regionalisation approach based on vegetation structure and soil texture represents a promising tool for the adjustment of sampling designs for soil gas flux measurement. Acknowledgement This research was financially supported by the project DFG (MA 5826/2-1).

Gravity waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fritts, David

1987-01-01

Gravity waves contributed to the establishment of the thermal structure, small scale (80 to 100 km) fluctuations in velocity (50 to 80 m/sec) and density (20 to 30%, 0 to peak). Dominant gravity wave spectrum in the middle atmosphere: x-scale, less than 100 km; z-scale, greater than 10 km; t-scale, less than 2 hr. Theorists are beginning to understand middle atmosphere motions. There are two classes: Planetary waves and equatorial motions, gravity waves and tidal motions. The former give rise to variability at large scales, which may alter apparent mean structure. Effects include density and velocity fluctuations, induced mean motions, and stratospheric warmings which lead to the breakup of the polar vortex and cooling of the mesosphere. On this scale are also equatorial quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations. Gravity wave and tidal motions produce large rms fluctuations in density and velocity. The magnitude of the density fluctuations compared to the mean density is of the order of the vertical wavelength, which grows with height. Relative density fluctuations are less than, or of the order of 30% below the mesopause. Such motions may cause significant and variable convection, and wind shear. There is a strong seasonal variation in gravity wave amplitude. Additional observations are needed to address and quantify mean and fluctuation statistics of both density and mean velocity, variability of the mean and fluctuations, and to identify dominant gravity wave scales and sources as well as causes of variability, both temporal and geographic.

Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Hodes, Jared L.; Arulraj, Malarvizhi

2017-10-01

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), wavelet, and wavelet coherence analysis of baseflow time-series from 126 streamgauges (record-length > 50 years; small and mid-size watersheds) in the US South Atlantic (USSA) region reveal three principal modes of space-time variability: (1) a region-wide dominant mode tied to annual precipitation that exhibits non-stationary decadal variability after the mid 1990s concurrent with the warming of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); (2) two spatial modes, east and west of the Blue Ridge, exhibiting nonstationary seasonal to sub-decadal variability before and after 1990 attributed to complex nonlinear interactions between ENSO and AMO impacting precipitation and recharge; and (3) deep (decadal) and shallow (< 6 years) space-time modes of groundwater variability separating basins with high and low annual mean baseflow fraction (MBF) by physiographic region. The results explain the propagation of multiscale climate variability into the regional groundwater system through recharge modulated by topography, geomorphology, and geology to determine the spatial organization of baseflow variability at decadal (and longer) time-scales, that is, deep hydrologic drought. Further, these findings suggest potential for long-range predictability of hydrological drought in small and mid-size watersheds, where baseflow is a robust indicator of nonstationary yield capacity of the underlying groundwater basins. Predictive associations between climate mode indices and deep baseflow (e.g. persistent decreases of the decadal-scale components of baseflow during the cold phase of the AMO in the USSA) can be instrumental toward improving forecast lead-times and long-range mitigation of severe drought.

Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

2011-01-01

A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Multi-hole pressure probes to air data system for subsonic small-scale air vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchenko, A. M.; Berezin, D. R.; Puzirev, L. N.; Tarasov, A. Z.; Kharitonov, A. M.; Shmakov, A. S.

2016-10-01

A brief review of research performed to develop multi-hole probes to measure of aerodynamic angles, dynamic head, and static pressure of a flying vehicle. The basis of these works is the application a well-known classical multi-hole pressure probe technique of measuring of a 3D flow to use in the air data system. Two multi-hole pressure probes with spherical and hemispherical head to air-data system for subsonic small-scale vehicles have been developed. A simple analytical probe model with separation of variables is proposed. The probes were calibrated in the wind tunnel, one of them is in-flight tested.

Applying Adaptive Variables in Computerised Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Triantafillou, Evangelos; Georgiadou, Elissavet; Economides, Anastasios A.

2007-01-01

Current research in computerised adaptive testing (CAT) focuses on applications, in small and large scale, that address self assessment, training, employment, teacher professional development for schools, industry, military, assessment of non-cognitive skills, etc. Dynamic item generation tools and automated scoring of complex, constructed…

Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Ettinger, Ailene K; Lundquist, Jessica D; Raleigh, Mark S; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecologically Important Climate Variables at Coarse and Fine Scales in a High-Snow Mountain Landscape

PubMed Central

Ford, Kevin R.; Ettinger, Ailene K.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Raleigh, Mark S.; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change. PMID:23762277

Small-Scale Spatial Variability of Ice Supersaturation and Cirrus in the TTL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiGangi, J. P.; Podolske, J. R.; Rana, M.; Slate, T. A.; Diskin, G. S.

2014-12-01

The processes controlling cloud formation and evolution represent a significant uncertainty in models of global climate change. High altitude cirrus clouds contribute a large portion of this uncertainty due to their altitude and abundance. The mechanism behind the formation of cirrus clouds depends on the characteristics and composition of ice supersaturation (ISS) regions, regions where the relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is greater than 100%. Small-scale dynamics have recently been shown to have a strong effect on the RHi of the UT/LS, and therefore on cirrus cloud formation. Until now, there has been insufficient data in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) to investigate these effects. The Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) was a series of campaigns focused on improving our understanding of humidity in the TTL. During this campaign, the NASA Langley/Ames Diode Laser Hygrometer was part of the payload on the NASA Global Hawk, resulting in measurements of humidity with as low as 1-2 m vertical resolution at altitudes up to 19 km. We will present observations from ATTREX describing the small scale spatial variability of water vapor along transects of ISSRs and cirrus clouds, as well as the dynamics driving the formation of ISS regions. These results will be discussed in context with results from prior UT/LS campaigns, such as DC3 and HIPPO.

Small-scale explosive seam welding. [using ribbon explosive encased in lead sheath

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, L. J.

1972-01-01

A unique small scale explosive seam welding technique is reported that has successfully joined a variety of aluminum alloys and alloy combinations in thicknesses to 0.125 inch, as well as titanium in thicknesses to 0.056 inch. The explosively welded joints are less than one-half inch in width and apparently have no long length limitation. The ribbon explosive developed in this study contains very small quantities of explosive encased in a flexible thin lead sheath. The evaluation and demonstration of this welding technique was accomplished in three phases: evaluation and optimization of ten major explosive welding variables, the development of four weld joints, and an applicational analysis which included photomicrographs, pressure integrity tests, vacuum effects, and fabrication of some potentially useful structures in aluminum and titanium.

Practical small-scale explosive seam welding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bement, L. J.

1983-01-01

A small-scale explosive seam welding process has been developed that can significantly contribute to remote metal joining operations under hazardous or inaccessible conditions, such as nuclear reactor repair and assembly of structure in space. This paper describes this explosive seam welding process in terms of joining principles, variables, types of joints created, capabilities, and applications. Very small quantities of explosive in a ribbon configuration are used to create narrow (less than 0.5 inch), long-length, uniform, hermetically sealed joints that exhibit parent metal properties in a wide variety of metals, alloys, and combinations. The practicality of this process has been demonstrated by its current acceptance, as well as its capabilities that are superior in many applications to the universally accepted joining processes, such as mechanical fasteners, fusion and resistance welding, and adhesives.

Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

PubMed

Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

2014-08-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Low-Cost GNSS Receivers to Investigate the Small-Scale Precipitable Water Vapor Variability in the Atmosphere for Improving High Resolution Rainfall Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krietemeyer, Andreas; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-04-01

Recent research has shown that assimilation of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) measurements into numerical weather predictions models improve the quality of rainfall now- and forecasting. Local PWV fluctuations may be related with water vapor increases in the lower troposphere which lead to deep convection. Prior studies show that about 20 minutes before rain occurs, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere at 1 km height increases. Monitoring the small-scale temporal and spatial variability of PWV is therefore crucial to improve the weather now- and forecasting for convective storms, that are typically critical for urban stormwater systems. One established technique to obtain PWV measurements in the atmosphere is to exploit signal delays from GNSS satellites to dual-frequency receivers on the ground. Existing dual-frequency receiver networks typically have inter-station distances in the order of tens of kilometers, which is not sufficiently dense to capture the small-scale PWV variations. In this study, we will add low-cost, single-frequency GNSS receivers to an existing dual-frequency receiver network to obtain an inter-station distance of about 1 km in the Rotterdam area (Netherlands). The aim is to investigate the spatial variability of PWV in the atmosphere at this scale. We use the surrounding dual-frequency network (distributed over a radius of approximately 25 km) to apply an ionospheric delay model that accounts for the delay in the ionosphere (50-1000 km altitude) that cannot be eliminated by single-frequency receivers. The results are validated by co-aligning a single-frequency receiver to a dual-frequency receiver. In the next steps, we will investigate how the high temporal and increased spatial resolution network can help to improve high-resolution rainfall forecasts. Their supposed improved forecasting results will be evaluated based on high-resolution rainfall estimates from a polarimetric X-band rainfall radar installed in the city of Rotterdam.

Probing small-scale structure in galaxies with strong gravitational lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Arthur Benjamin

We use gravitational lensing to study the small-scale distribution of matter in galaxies. First, we examine galaxies and their dark matter halos. Roughly half of all observed four-image quasar lenses have image flux ratios that differ from the values predicted by simple lens potentials. We show that smooth departures from elliptical symmetry fail to explain anomalous radio fluxes, strengthening the case for dark matter substructure. Our results have important implications for the "missing satellites'' problem. We then consider how time delays between lensed images can be used to identify lens galaxies containing small-scale structure. We derive an analytic relation for the time delay between the close pair of images in a "fold'' lens, and perform Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the utility of time delays for probing small- scale structure in realistic lens populations. We compare our numerical predictions with systems that have measured time delays and discover two anomalous lenses. Next, we consider microlensing, where stars in the lens galaxy perturb image magnifications. This is relevant at optical wavelengths, where the size of the lensed source is comparable to the Einstein radius of a typical star. Our simulations of negative-parity images show that raising the fraction of dark matter relative to stars increases image flux variability for small sources, and decreases it for large sources. This suggests that quasar accretion disks and broad-emission-line regions may respond differently to microlensing. We also consider extended sources with a range of ellipticities, which has relevance to a population of inclined accretion disks. Depending on their orientation, more elongated sources lead to more rapid variability, which may complicate the interpretation of microlensing light curves. Finally, we consider prospects for observing strong lensing by the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, Sgr A*. Assuming a black hole on the million- solar-mass scale, we predict that the probability of observing strong lensing of a background star is roughly 56%. We also consider how lensing by Sgr A* could be used to test general relativity against alternative theories, concluding that microarcsecond resolution would make this possible.

Implications of the Observed Mesoscale Variations of Clouds for Earth's Radiation Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Delo, Carl; Cairns, Brian; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The effect of small-spatial-scale cloud variations on radiative transfer in cloudy atmospheres currently receives a lot of research attention, but the available studies are not very clear about which spatial scales are important and report a very large range of estimates of the magnitude of the effects. Also, there have been no systematic investigations of how to measure and represent these cloud variations. We exploit the cloud climatology produced by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to: (1) define and test different methods of representing cloud variation statistics, (2) investigate the range of spatial scales that should be included, (3) characterize cloud variations over a range of space and time scales covering mesoscale (30 - 300 km, 3-12 hr) into part of the lower part of the synoptic scale (300 - 3000 km, 1-30 days), (4) obtain a climatology of the optical thickness, emissivity and cloud top temperature variability of clouds that can be used in weather and climate GCMS, together with the parameterization proposed by Cairns et al. (1999), to account for the effects of small-scale cloud variations on radiative fluxes, and (5) evaluate the effect of observed cloud variations on Earth's radiation budget. These results lead to the formulation of a revised conceptual model of clouds for use in radiative transfer calculations in GCMS. The complete variability climatology can be obtained from the ISCCP Web site at http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov.

Detecting changes resulting from human pressure in a naturally quick-changing and heterogeneous environment: Spatial and temporal scales of variability in coastal lagoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Ruzafa, A.; Marcos, C.; Pérez-Ruzafa, I. M.; Barcala, E.; Hegazi, M. I.; Quispe, J.

2007-10-01

To detect changes in ecosystems due to human impact, experimental designs must include replicates at the appropriate scale to avoid pseudoreplication. Although coastal lagoons, with their highly variable environmental factors and biological assemblages, are relatively well-studied systems, very little is known about their natural scales of variation. In this study, we investigate the spatio-temporal scales of variability in the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) using structured hierarchical sampling designs, mixed and permutational multi-variate analyses of variance, and ordination multi-variate analyses applied to hydrographical parameters, nutrients, chlorophyll a and ichthyoplankton in the water column, and to macrophyte and fish benthic assemblages. Lagoon processes in the Mar Menor show heterogeneous patterns at different temporal and spatial scales. The water column characteristics (including nutrient concentration) showed small-scale spatio-temporal variability, from 10 0 to 10 1 km and from fortnightly to seasonally. Biological features (chlorophyll a concentration and ichthyoplankton assemblage descriptors) showed monthly changes and spatial patterns at the scale of 10 0 (chlorophyll a) - 10 1 km (ichthyoplankton). Benthic assemblages (macrophytes and fishes) showed significant differences between types of substrates in the same locality and between localities, according to horizontal gradients related with confinement in the lagoon, at the scale of 10 0-10 1 km. The vertical zonation of macrophyte assemblages (at scales of 10 1-10 2 cm) overlaps changes in substrata and horizontal gradients. Seasonal patterns in vegetation biomass were not significant, but the significant interaction between Locality and Season indicated that the seasons of maximum and minimum biomass depend on local environmental conditions. Benthic fish assemblages showed no significant patterns at the monthly scale but did show seasonal patterns.

Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

2015-09-01

Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

Relevance of anisotropy and spatial variability of gas diffusivity for soil-gas transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schack-Kirchner, Helmer; Kühne, Anke; Lang, Friederike

2017-04-01

Models of soil gas transport generally do not consider neither direction dependence of gas diffusivity, nor its small-scale variability. However, in a recent study, we could provide evidence for anisotropy favouring vertical gas diffusion in natural soils. We hypothesize that gas transport models based on gas diffusion data measured with soil rings are strongly influenced by both, anisotropy and spatial variability and the use of averaged diffusivities could be misleading. To test this we used a 2-dimensional model of soil gas transport to under compacted wheel tracks to model the soil-air oxygen distribution in the soil. The model was parametrized with data obtained from soil-ring measurements with its central tendency and variability. The model includes vertical parameter variability as well as variation perpendicular to the elongated wheel track. Different parametrization types have been tested: [i)]Averaged values for wheel track and undisturbed. em [ii)]Random distribution of soil cells with normally distributed variability within the strata. em [iii)]Random distributed soil cells with uniformly distributed variability within the strata. All three types of small-scale variability has been tested for [j)] isotropic gas diffusivity and em [jj)]reduced horizontal gas diffusivity (constant factor), yielding in total six models. As expected the different parametrizations had an important influence to the aeration state under wheel tracks with the strongest oxygen depletion in case of uniformly distributed variability and anisotropy towards higher vertical diffusivity. The simple simulation approach clearly showed the relevance of anisotropy and spatial variability in case of identical central tendency measures of gas diffusivity. However, until now it did not consider spatial dependency of variability, that could even aggravate effects. To consider anisotropy and spatial variability in gas transport models we recommend a) to measure soil-gas transport parameters spatially explicit including different directions and b) to use random-field stochastic models to assess the possible effects for gas-exchange models.

Evidence of Tropospheric 90 Day Oscillations in the Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasperini, F.; Hagan, M. E.; Zhao, Y.

2017-10-01

In the last decade evidence demonstrated that terrestrial weather greatly impacts the dynamics and mean state of the thermosphere via small-scale gravity waves and global-scale solar tidal propagation and dissipation effects. While observations have shown significant intraseasonal variability in the upper mesospheric mean winds, relatively little is known about this variability at satellite altitudes (˜250-400 km). Using cross-track wind measurements from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellites, winds from a Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications/Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model simulation, and outgoing longwave radiation data, we demonstrate the existence of a prominent and global-scale 90 day oscillation in the thermospheric zonal mean winds and in the diurnal eastward propagating tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3) during 2009-2010 and present evidence of its connection to variability in tropospheric convective activity. This study suggests that strong coupling between the troposphere and the thermosphere occurs on intraseasonal timescales.

Dynamic Edge Effects in Small Mammal Communities across a Conservation-Agricultural Interface in Swaziland

PubMed Central

Hurst, Zachary M.; McCleery, Robert A.; Collier, Bret A.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Silvy, Nova J.; Taylor, Peter J.; Monadjem, Ara

2013-01-01

Across the planet, high-intensity farming has transformed native vegetation into monocultures, decreasing biodiversity on a landscape scale. Yet landscape-scale changes to biodiversity and community structure often emerge from processes operating at local scales. One common process that can explain changes in biodiversity and community structure is the creation of abrupt habitat edges, which, in turn, generate edge effects. Such effects, while incredibly common, can be highly variable across space and time; however, we currently lack a general analytical framework that can adequately capture such spatio-temporal variability. We extend previous approaches for estimating edge effects to a non-linear mixed modeling framework that captures such spatio-temporal heterogeneity and apply it to understand how agricultural land-uses alter wildlife communities. We trapped small mammals along a conservation-agriculture land-use interface extending 375 m into sugarcane plantations and conservation land-uses at three sites during dry and wet seasons in Swaziland, Africa. Sugarcane plantations had significant reductions in species richness and heterogeneity, and showed an increase in community similarity, suggesting a more homogenized small mammal community. Furthermore, our modeling framework identified strong variation in edge effects on communities across sites and seasons. Using small mammals as an indicator, intensive agricultural practices appear to create high-density communities of generalist species while isolating interior species in less than 225 m. These results illustrate how agricultural land-use can reduce diversity across the landscape and that effects can be masked or magnified, depending on local conditions. Taken together, our results emphasize the need to create or retain natural habitat features in agricultural mosaics. PMID:24040269

Multi-scale monitoring for improved nutrient management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many watersheds, monitoring at the outlet of small watersheds has not been able to demonstrate that conservation efforts have had any impact on stream water quality. Reasons are multiple including legacy issues, time for the conservation practices to have any benefit, temporal variability of weat...

Acoustic and aerodynamic testing of a scale model variable pitch fan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jutras, R. R.; Kazin, S. B.

1974-01-01

A fully reversible pitch scale model fan with variable pitch rotor blades was tested to determine its aerodynamic and acoustic characteristics. The single-stage fan has a design tip speed of 1160 ft/sec (353.568 m/sec) at a bypass pressure ratio of 1.5. Three operating lines were investigated. Test results show that the blade pitch for minimum noise also resulted in the highest efficiency for all three operating lines at all thrust levels. The minimum perceived noise on a 200-ft (60.96 m) sideline was obtained with the nominal nozzle. At 44% of takeoff thrust, the PNL reduction between blade pitch and minimum noise blade pitch is 1.8 PNdB for the nominal nozzle and decreases with increasing thrust. The small nozzle (6% undersized) has the highest efficiency at all part thrust conditions for the minimum noise blade pitch setting; although, the noise is about 1.0 PNdB higher for the small nozzle at the minimum noise blade pitch position.

Gull-derived trace elements trigger small-scale contamination in a remote Mediterranean nature reserve.

PubMed

Signa, Geraldina; Mazzola, Antonio; Tramati, Cecilia Doriana; Vizzini, Salvatrice

2013-09-15

The role of a yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) small colony in conveying trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, THg, V, Zn) was assessed in a Mediterranean nature reserve (Marinello ponds) at various spatial and temporal scales. Trace element concentrations in guano were high and seasonally variable. In contrast, contamination in the ponds was not influenced by season but showed strong spatial variability among ponds, according to the different guano input. Biogenic enrichment factor B confirmed the role of gulls in the release of trace elements through guano subsidies. In addition, comparing trace element pond concentrations to the US NOAA's SQGs, As, Cu and Ni showed contamination levels associated with possible negative biological effects. Thus, this study reflects the need to take seabirds into account as key factors influencing ecological processes and contamination levels even in remote areas, especially around the Mediterranean, where these birds are abundant but overlooked. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions. [Atmospheric Variability Experiment-Severe Environmental Storm and Mesoscale Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Meyer, P. J.

1984-01-01

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

Multi-Scale Modeling and the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J.

2015-12-01

Turbulence and convection play a fundamental role in many key weather and climate science topics. Unfortunately, current atmospheric models cannot explicitly resolve most turbulent and convective flow. Because of this fact, turbulence and convection in the atmosphere has to be parameterized - i.e. equations describing the dynamical evolution of the statistical properties of turbulence and convection motions have to be devised. Recently a variety of different models have been developed that attempt at simulating the atmosphere using variable resolution. A key problem however is that parameterizations are in general not explicitly aware of the resolution - the scale awareness problem. In this context, we will present and discuss a specific approach, the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) parameterization, that not only is in itself a multi-scale parameterization but it is also particularly well suited to deal with the scale-awareness problems that plague current variable-resolution models. It does so by representing small-scale turbulence using a classic Eddy-Diffusivity (ED) method, and the larger-scale (boundary layer and tropospheric-scale) eddies as a variety of plumes using the Mass-Flux (MF) concept.

Clones of cells switch from reduction to enhancement of size variability in Arabidopsis sepals

PubMed Central

Tsugawa, Satoru; Hervieux, Nathan; Kierzkowski, Daniel; Routier-Kierzkowska, Anne-Lise; Sapala, Aleksandra; Hamant, Olivier; Smith, Richard S.; Boudaoud, Arezki

2017-01-01

Organs form with remarkably consistent sizes and shapes during development, whereas a high variability in growth is observed at the cell level. Given this contrast, it is unclear how such consistency in organ scale can emerge from cellular behavior. Here, we examine an intermediate scale, the growth of clones of cells in Arabidopsis sepals. Each clone consists of the progeny of a single progenitor cell. At early stages, we find that clones derived from a small progenitor cell grow faster than those derived from a large progenitor cell. This results in a reduction in clone size variability, a phenomenon we refer to as size uniformization. By contrast, at later stages of clone growth, clones change their growth pattern to enhance size variability, when clones derived from larger progenitor cells grow faster than those derived from smaller progenitor cells. Finally, we find that, at early stages, fast growing clones exhibit greater cell growth heterogeneity. Thus, cellular variability in growth might contribute to a decrease in the variability of clones throughout the sepal. PMID:29183944

Using SMAP Data to Investigate the Role of Soil Moisture Variability on Realtime Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krajewski, W. F.; Jadidoleslam, N.; Mantilla, R.

2017-12-01

The Iowa Flood Center has developed a regional high-resolution flood-forecasting model for the state of Iowa that decomposes the landscape into hillslopes of about 0.1 km2. For the model to benefit, through data assimilation, from SMAP observations of soil moisture (SM) at scales of approximately 100 km2, we are testing a framework to connect SMAP-scale observations to the small-scale SM variability calculated by our rainfall-runoff models. As a step in this direction, we performed data analyses of 15-min point SM observations using a network of about 30 TDR instruments spread throughout the state. We developed a stochastic point-scale SM model that captures 1) SM increases due to rainfall inputs, and 2) SM decay during dry periods. We use a power law model to describe soil moisture decay during dry periods, and a single parameter logistic curve to describe precipitation feedback on soil moisture. We find that the parameters of the models behave as time-independent random variables with stationary distributions. Using data-based simulation, we explore differences in the dynamical range of variability of hillslope and SMAP-scale domains. The simulations allow us to predict the runoff field and streamflow hydrographs for the state of Iowa during the three largest flooding periods (2008, 2014, and 2016). We also use the results to determine the reduction in forecast uncertainty from assimilation of unbiased SMAP-scale soil moisture observations.

A search for J-band variability from late-L and T brown dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, F. J.; Hodgkin, S. T.; Oppenheimer, B. R.; Robertson, J.; Haubois, X.

2008-06-01

We present J-band photometric observations of eight late-L and T type brown dwarfs designed to search for variability. We detect small amplitude periodic variability from three of the objects on time-scales of several hours, probably indicating the rotation period of the objects. The other targets do not show any variability down to the level of 0.5-5 per cent This work is based on observations obtained at the European Southern Observatory, La Silla, Chile (ESO Programme 72.C-0006). E-mail: fclarke@astro.ox.ac.uk (FJC); sth@ast.cam.ac.uk (STH); bro@amnh.org (BRO); xavier.haubois@obspm.fr (XH)

Trends in sea ice cover within habitats used by bowhead whales in the western Arctic.

PubMed

Moore, Sue E; Laidre, Kristin L

2006-06-01

We examined trends in sea ice cover between 1979 and 2002 in four months (March, June, September, and November) for four large (approximately 100,000 km2) and 12 small (approximately 10,000 km2) regions of the western Arctic in habitats used by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus). Variation in open water with year was significant in all months except March, but interactions between region and year were not. Open water increased in both large and small regions, but trends were weak with least-squares regression accounting for < or =34% of the total variation. In large regions, positive trends in open water were strongest in September. Linear fits were poor, however, even in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, where basin-scale analyses have emphasized dramatic sea ice loss. Small regions also showed weak positive trends in open water and strong interannual variability. Open water increased consistently in five small regions where bowhead whales have been observed feeding or where oceanographic models predict prey entrainment, including: (1) June, along the northern Chukotka coast, near Wrangel Island, and along the Beaufort slope; (2) September, near Wrangel Island, the Barrow Arc, and the Chukchi Borderland; and (3) November, along the Barrow Arc. Conversely, there was very little consistent change in sea ice cover in four small regions considered winter refugia for bowhead whales in the northern Bering Sea, nor in two small regions that include the primary springtime migration corridor in the Chukchi Sea. The effects of sea ice cover on bowhead whale prey availability are unknown but can be modeled via production and advection pathways. Our conceptual model suggests that reductions in sea ice cover will increase prey availability along both pathways for this population. This analysis elucidates the variability inherent in the western Arctic marine ecosystem at scales relevant to bowhead whales and contrasts basin-scale depictions of extreme sea ice retreats, thinning, and wind-driven movements.

Correlation-based regularization and gradient operators for (joint) inversion on unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordi, Claudio; Doetsch, Joseph; Günther, Thomas; Schmelzbach, Cedric; Robertsson, Johan

2017-04-01

When working with unstructured meshes for geophysical inversions, special attention should be paid to the design of the operators that are used for regularizing the inverse problem and coupling of different property models in joint inversions. Regularization constraints for inversions on unstructured meshes are often defined in a rather ad-hoc manner and usually only involve the cell to which the operator is applied and its direct neighbours. Similarly, most structural coupling operators for joint inversion, such as the popular cross-gradients operator, are only defined in the direct neighbourhood of a cell. As a result, the regularization and coupling length scales and strength of these operators depend on the discretization as well as cell sizes and shape. Especially for unstructured meshes, where the cell sizes vary throughout the model domain, the dependency of the operator on the discretization may lead to artefacts. Designing operators that are based on a spatial correlation model allows to define correlation length scales over which an operator acts (called footprint), reducing the dependency on the discretization and the effects of variable cell sizes. Moreover, correlation-based operators can accommodate for expected anisotropy by using different length scales in horizontal and vertical directions. Correlation-based regularization operators also known as stochastic regularization operators have already been successfully applied to inversions on regular grids. Here, we formulate stochastic operators for unstructured meshes and apply them in 2D surface and 3D cross-well electrical resistivity tomography data inversion examples of layered media. Especially for the synthetic cross-well example, improved inversion results are achieved when stochastic regularization is used instead of a classical smoothness constraint. For the case of cross-gradients operators for joint inversion, the correlation model is used to define the footprint of the operator and weigh the contributions of the property values that are used to calculate the cross-gradients. In a first series of synthetic-data tests, we examined the mesh dependency of the cross-gradients operators. Compared to operators that are only defined in the direct neighbourhood of a cell, the dependency on the cell size of the cross-gradients calculation is markedly reduced when using operators with larger footprints. A second test with synthetic models focussed on the effect of small-scale variabilities of the parameter value on the cross-gradients calculation. Small-scale variabilities that are superimposed on a global trend of the property value can potentially degrade the cross-gradients calculation and destabilize joint inversion. We observe that the cross-gradients from operators with footprints larger than the length scale of the variabilities are less affected compared to operators with a small footprint. In joint inversions on unstructured meshes, we thus expect the correlation-based coupling operators to ensure robust coupling on a physically meaningful scale.

Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Yao, Lei; Chen, Liding; Wei, Wei

2017-01-01

In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area (TIA), Directly Connected Impervious Area (DCIA), and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1) imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Qt and Qp; (2) reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3) different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp. These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management. PMID:28264521

Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Yao, Lei; Chen, Liding; Wei, Wei

2017-02-28

In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area ( TIA ), Directly Connected Impervious Area ( DCIA ), and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth ( Q t and Q p ) were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1) imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Q t and Q p ; (2) reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3) different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Q p . These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management.

An experimental method to verify soil conservation by check dams on the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Xu, X Z; Zhang, H W; Wang, G Q; Chen, S C; Dang, W Q

2009-12-01

A successful experiment with a physical model requires necessary conditions of similarity. This study presents an experimental method with a semi-scale physical model. The model is used to monitor and verify soil conservation by check dams in a small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China. During experiments, the model-prototype ratio of geomorphic variables was kept constant under each rainfall event. Consequently, experimental data are available for verification of soil erosion processes in the field and for predicting soil loss in a model watershed with check dams. Thus, it can predict the amount of soil loss in a catchment. This study also mentions four criteria: similarities of watershed geometry, grain size and bare land, Froude number (Fr) for rainfall event, and soil erosion in downscaled models. The efficacy of the proposed method was confirmed using these criteria in two different downscaled model experiments. The B-Model, a large scale model, simulates watershed prototype. The two small scale models, D(a) and D(b), have different erosion rates, but are the same size. These two models simulate hydraulic processes in the B-Model. Experiment results show that while soil loss in the small scale models was converted by multiplying the soil loss scale number, it was very close to that of the B-Model. Obviously, with a semi-scale physical model, experiments are available to verify and predict soil loss in a small watershed area with check dam system on the Loess Plateau, China.

Experiences from the testing of a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Experience gained in testing a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift, and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

[Research progress on hydrological scaling].

PubMed

Liu, Jianmei; Pei, Tiefan

2003-12-01

With the development of hydrology and the extending effect of mankind on environment, scale issue has become a great challenge to many hydrologists due to the stochasticism and complexity of hydrological phenomena and natural catchments. More and more concern has been given to the scaling issues to gain a large-scale (or small-scale) hydrological characteristic from a certain known catchments, but hasn't been solved successfully. The first part of this paper introduced some concepts about hydrological scale, scale issue and scaling. The key problem is the spatial heterogeneity of catchments and the temporal and spatial variability of hydrological fluxes. Three approaches to scale were put forward in the third part, which were distributed modeling, fractal theory and statistical self similarity analyses. Existing problems and future research directions were proposed in the last part.

Adaptation of a pattern-scaling approach for assessment of local (village/valley) scale water resources and related vulnerabilities in the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

2010-05-01

The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are of the utmost importance to the economic wellbeing of Pakistan. The irrigated agriculture made possible by Indus river runoff underpins the food security for Pakistan's nearly 200 million people. Contributions from hydropower account for more than one fifth of peak installed electrical generating capacity in a country where widespread, prolonged load-shedding handicaps business activity and industrial development. Pakistan's further socio-economic development thus depends largely on optimisation of its precious water resources. Confident, accurate seasonal predictions of water resource availability coupled with sound understanding of interannual variability are urgent insights needed by development planners and infrastructure managers at all levels. This study focuses on the challenge of providing meaningful quantitative information at the village/valley scale in the upper reaches of the UIB. Proceeding by progressive reductions in scale, the typology of the observed UIB hydrological regimes -- glacial, nival and pluvial -- are examined with special emphasis on interannual variability for individual seasons. Variations in discharge (runoff) are compared to observations of climate parameters (temperature, precipitation) and available spatial data (elevation, snow cover and snow-water-equivalent). The first scale presented is composed of the large-scale, long-record gauged UIB tributary basins. The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has maintained these stations for several decades in order to monitor seasonal flows and accumulate data for design of further infrastructure. Data from basins defined by five gauging stations on the Indus, Hunza, Gilgit and Astore rivers are examined. The second scale presented is a set of smaller gauged headwater catchments with short records. These gauges were installed by WAPDA and its partners amongst the international development agencies to assess potential sites for medium-scale infrastructure projects. These catchments are placed in their context within the hydrological regime classification using the spatial data and (remote sensing) observations as well as river gauging measurements. The study assesses the degree of similarity with the larger basins of the same hydrological regime. This assessment focuses on the measured response to observed climate variable anomalies. The smallest scale considered is comprised of a number of case studies at the ungauged village/valley scale. These examples are based on the delineation of areas to which specific communities (villages) have customary (riparian) water rights. These examples were suggested by non-governmental organisations working on grassroots economic development initiatives and small-scale infrastructure projects in the region. The direct observations available for these subcatchments are limited to spatial data (elevation, snow parameters). The challenge at this level is to accurately extrapolate areal values (precipitation, temperature, runoff) from point observations at the basin scale. The study assesses both the degree of similarity in the distribution of spatial parameters to the larger gauged basins and the interannual variability (spatial heterogeneity) of remotely-sensed snow cover and snow-water-equivalent at this subcatchment scale. Based upon the characterisation of spatial and interannual variability at these three spatial scales, the challenges facing local water resource managers and infrastructure operators are enumerated. Local vulnerabilities include, but are not limited to, varying thresholds in irrigation water requirements based on crop-type, minimum base flows for micro-hydropower generation during winter (high load) months and relatively small but growing demand for domestic water usage. In conclusion the study posits potential strategies for managing interannual variability and potential emerging trends. Suggested strategies are guided by the principles of low-risk adaptation, participative decision making and local capacity building.

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers

2012-01-01

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Modelling Pesticide Leaching At Column, Field and Catchment Scales I. Analysis of Soil Variability At Field and Catchment Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gärdenäs, A.; Jarvis, N.; Alavi, G.

The spatial variability of soil characteristics was studied in a small agricultural catch- ment (Vemmenhög, 9 km2) at the field and catchment scales. This analysis serves as a basis for assumptions concerning upscaling approaches used to model pesticide leaching from the catchment with the MACRO model (Jarvis et al., this meeting). The work focused on the spatial variability of two key soil properties for pesticide fate in soil, organic carbon and clay content. The Vemmenhög catchment (9 km2) is formed in a glacial till deposit in southernmost Sweden. The landscape is undulating (30 - 65 m a.s.l.) and 95 % of the area is used for crop production (winter rape, winter wheat, sugar beet and spring barley). The climate is warm temperate. Soil samples for or- ganic C and texture were taken on a small regular grid at Näsby Farm, (144 m x 144 m, sampling distance: 6-24 m, 77 points) and on an irregular large grid covering the whole catchment (sampling distance: 333 m, 46 points). At the field scale, it could be shown that the organic C content was strongly related to landscape position and height (R2= 73 %, p < 0.001, n=50). The organic C content of hollows in the landscape is so high that they contribute little to the total loss of pesticides (Jarvis et al., this meeting). Clay content is also related to landscape position, being larger at the hilltop locations resulting in lower near-saturated hydraulic conductivity. Hence, macropore flow can be expected to be more pronounced (see also Roulier & Jarvis, this meeting). The variability in organic C was similar for the field and catchment grids, which made it possible to krige the organic C content of the whole catchment using data from both grids and an uneven lag distance.

Variable Grid Traveltime Tomography for Near-surface Seismic Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

We present a new algorithm of traveltime tomography for imaging the subsurface with automated variable grids upon geological structures. The nonlinear traveltime tomography along with Tikhonov regularization using conjugate gradient method is a conventional method for near surface imaging. However, model regularization for any regular and even grids assumes uniform resolution. From geophysical point of view, long-wavelength and large scale structures can be reliably resolved, the details along geological boundaries are difficult to resolve. Therefore, we solve a traveltime tomography problem that automatically identifies large scale structures and aggregates grids within the structures for inversion. As a result, the number of velocity unknowns is reduced significantly, and inversion intends to resolve small-scale structures or the boundaries of large-scale structures. The approach is demonstrated by tests on both synthetic and field data. One synthetic model is a buried basalt model with one horizontal layer. Using the variable grid traveltime tomography, the resulted model is more accurate in top layer velocity, and basalt blocks, and leading to a less number of grids. The field data was collected in an oil field in China. The survey was performed in an area where the subsurface structures were predominantly layered. The data set includes 476 shots with a 10 meter spacing and 1735 receivers with a 10 meter spacing. The first-arrival traveltime of the seismogram is picked for tomography. The reciprocal errors of most shots are between 2ms and 6ms. The normal tomography results in fluctuations in layers and some artifacts in the velocity model. In comparison, the implementation of new method with proper threshold provides blocky model with resolved flat layer and less artifacts. Besides, the number of grids reduces from 205,656 to 4,930 and the inversion produces higher resolution due to less unknowns and relatively fine grids in small structures. The variable grid traveltime tomography provides an alternative imaging solution for blocky structures in the subsurface and builds a good starting model for waveform inversion and statics.

Application of multivariate analysis and mass transfer principles for refinement of a 3-L bioreactor scale-down model--when shake flasks mimic 15,000-L bioreactors better.

PubMed

Ahuja, Sanjeev; Jain, Shilpa; Ram, Kripa

2015-01-01

Characterization of manufacturing processes is key to understanding the effects of process parameters on process performance and product quality. These studies are generally conducted using small-scale model systems. Because of the importance of the results derived from these studies, the small-scale model should be predictive of large scale. Typically, small-scale bioreactors, which are considered superior to shake flasks in simulating large-scale bioreactors, are used as the scale-down models for characterizing mammalian cell culture processes. In this article, we describe a case study where a cell culture unit operation in bioreactors using one-sided pH control and their satellites (small-scale runs conducted using the same post-inoculation cultures and nutrient feeds) in 3-L bioreactors and shake flasks indicated that shake flasks mimicked the large-scale performance better than 3-L bioreactors. We detail here how multivariate analysis was used to make the pertinent assessment and to generate the hypothesis for refining the existing 3-L scale-down model. Relevant statistical techniques such as principal component analysis, partial least square, orthogonal partial least square, and discriminant analysis were used to identify the outliers and to determine the discriminatory variables responsible for performance differences at different scales. The resulting analysis, in combination with mass transfer principles, led to the hypothesis that observed similarities between 15,000-L and shake flask runs, and differences between 15,000-L and 3-L runs, were due to pCO2 and pH values. This hypothesis was confirmed by changing the aeration strategy at 3-L scale. By reducing the initial sparge rate in 3-L bioreactor, process performance and product quality data moved closer to that of large scale. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Multiscale patterns and drivers of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities in the roots and root-associated soil of a wild perennial herb.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Pil U; Hugerth, Luisa W; Blanchet, F Guillaume; Andersson, Anders F; Lindahl, Björn D; Tack, Ayco J M

2018-03-24

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi form diverse communities and are known to influence above-ground community dynamics and biodiversity. However, the multiscale patterns and drivers of AM fungal composition and diversity are still poorly understood. We sequenced DNA markers from roots and root-associated soil from Plantago lanceolata plants collected across multiple spatial scales to allow comparison of AM fungal communities among neighbouring plants, plant subpopulations, nearby plant populations, and regions. We also measured soil nutrients, temperature, humidity, and community composition of neighbouring plants and nonAM root-associated fungi. AM fungal communities were already highly dissimilar among neighbouring plants (c. 30 cm apart), albeit with a high variation in the degree of similarity at this small spatial scale. AM fungal communities were increasingly, and more consistently, dissimilar at larger spatial scales. Spatial structure and environmental drivers explained a similar percentage of the variation, from 7% to 25%. A large fraction of the variation remained unexplained, which may be a result of unmeasured environmental variables, species interactions and stochastic processes. We conclude that AM fungal communities are highly variable among nearby plants. AM fungi may therefore play a major role in maintaining small-scale variation in community dynamics and biodiversity. © 2018 The Authors New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

The Spectrum of Wind Power Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandi, Mahesh

2016-11-01

Wind is a variable energy source whose fluctuations threaten electrical grid stability and complicate dynamical load balancing. The power generated by a wind turbine fluctuates due to the variable wind speed that blows past the turbine. Indeed, the spectrum of wind power fluctuations is widely believed to reflect the Kolmogorov spectrum; both vary with frequency f as f - 5 / 3. This variability decreases when aggregate power fluctuations from geographically distributed wind farms are averaged at the grid via a mechanism known as geographic smoothing. Neither the f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum nor the mechanism of geographic smoothing are understood. In this work, we explain the wind power fluctuation spectrum from the turbine through grid scales. The f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum results from the largest length scales of atmospheric turbulence of order 200 km influencing the small scales where individual turbines operate. This long-range influence spatially couples geographically distributed wind farms and synchronizes farm outputs over a range of frequencies and decreases with increasing inter-farm distance. Consequently, aggregate grid-scale power fluctuations remain correlated, and are smoothed until they reach a limiting f - 7 / 3 spectrum. This work was funded by the Collective Interactions Unit, OIST Graduate University, Japan.

Correlates of depressive symptoms among workers in small- and medium-scale manufacturing enterprises in Japan.

PubMed

Ikeda, Tomoko; Nakata, Akinori; Takahashi, Masaya; Hojou, Minoru; Haratani, Takashi; Nishikido, Noriko; Kamibeppu, Kiyoko

2009-01-01

Although the relationship between job stress and depressive symptoms has been well documented among workers in large scale enterprises, the situation in small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) is not fully understood. To clarify the factors associated with depressive symptoms in SMEs in Japan. 1,516 male and 738 female Japanese workers at SMEs were surveyed using a self-administered questionnaire. We applied hierarchical multiple linear regression with depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depressive Symptoms Scale) as the dependent variable, and (1) Individual, (2) Lifestyle, (3) Job stressors, and (4) SME unique factors as independent variables entered in 4 steps. Analyses were stratified by sex due to large differences in stress scores and demographic variables. Perceived lack of understanding from others with regard to health was the strongest factor associated with increased depressive symptoms (BETA=0.29 in males and 0.28 in females). Higher intragroup conflict (BETA=0.15 in males and 0.09 in females), perceived job future ambiguity (BETA=0.09 in males and 0.11 in females), higher quantitative workload (BETA=0.06 in males and 0.10 in females), and being an employer or a member of the employer's family (BETA=0.06 in males and 0.10 in females) were additional factors associated with high depressive symptoms. Economic concern, being single, cigarette smoking, shorter sleep duration, and skill underutilization were male specific, while younger age and lower social support at work were female specific factors significantly associated with increased depressive symptoms. These data suggest that poor mental health may be prevented by creating a workplace climate which focuses on the high value of the health of fellow workers.

Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

2013-10-01

The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B. N.

2012-05-01

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against ~0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); ~60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and ~40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our ~100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Does Encope emarginata (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) affect spatial variation patterns of estuarine subtidal meiofauna and microphytobenthos?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brustolin, Marco C.; Thomas, Micheli C.; Mafra, Luiz L.; Lana, Paulo da Cunha

2014-08-01

Foraging macrofauna, such as the sand dollar Encope emarginata, can modify sediment properties and affect spatial distribution patterns of microphytobenthos and meiobenthos at different spatial scales. We adopted a spatial hierarchical approach composed of five spatial levels (km, 100 s m, 10 s m, 1 s m and cm) to describe variation patterns of microphytobenthos, meiobenthos and sediment variables in shallow subtidal regions in the subtropical Paranaguá Bay (Southern Brazil) with live E. emarginata (LE), dead E. emarginata (only skeletons - (DE), and no E. emarginata (WE). The overall structure of microphytobenthos and meiofauna was always less variable at WE and much of variation at the scale of 100 s m was related to variability within LE and DE, due to foraging activities or to the presence of shell hashes. Likewise, increased variability in chlorophyll-a and phaeopigment contents was observed among locations within LE, although textural parameters of sediment varied mainly at smaller scales. Variations within LE were related to changes on the amount and quality of food as a function of sediment heterogeneity induced by the foraging behavior of sand dollars. We provide strong evidence that top-down effects related to the occurrence of E. emarginata act in synergy with bottom-up structuring related to hydrodynamic processes in determining overall benthic spatial variability. Conversely, species richness is mainly influenced by environmental heterogeneity at small spatial scales (centimeters to meters), which creates a mosaic of microhabitats.

Surface Wind and Upper-Ocean Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulated by the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

observed data at one location include variability caused by small -scale atmospheric convec- tion and wind variations that cannot be resolved by the... data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this...high-resolution nested grid (9 km) for the atmospheric component is used for the central Indian Ocean. While observational data are assimilated into the

Stochastic Modeling of CO2 Migrations and Chemical Reactions in Deep Saline Formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, C.; Lee, I.; Lin, C.

2013-12-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been recognized the feasible technology that can significant reduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions from large point sources. The CO2 injection in geological formations is one of the options to permanently store the captured CO2. Based on this concept a large number of target formations have been identified and intensively investigated with different types of techniques such as the hydrogeophysical experiments or numerical simulations. The numerical simulations of CO2 migrations in saline formations recently gather much attention because a number of models are available for this purpose and there are potential sites existing in many countries. The lower part of Cholan Formation (CF) near Changhua Coastal Industrial Park (CCIP) in west central Taiwan was identified the largest potential site for CO2 sequestration. The top elevations of the KF in this area varies from 1300 to 1700m below the sea level. Laboratory experiment showed that the permeability of CF is 10-14 to 10-12 m2. Over the years the offshore seismic survey and limited onshore borehole logs have provided information for the simulation of CO2 migration in the CF although the original investigations might not focus on the purpose of CO2 sequestration. In this study we modify the TOUGHREACT model to consider the small-scale heterogeneity in target formation and the cap rock of upper CF. A Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach based on the TOUGHREACT model is employed to quantify the effect of small-scale heterogeneity on the CO2 migrations and hydrochemical reactions in the CF. We assume that the small-scale variability of permeability in KF can be described with a known Gaussian distribution. Therefore, the Gaussian type random field generator such as Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGSIM) in Geostatistical Software Library (GSLIB) can be used to provide the random permeability realizations for the MCS. A variety of statistical parameters such as the variances and correlation lengths in a Gaussian covariance model are varied in the MCS and the uncertainty of the CO2 and other chemical concentrations are evaluated based on 144 random realizations. In this study a constant injection rate of100Mt/year supercritical CO2 is applied in the bottom of CF. The continuous injection time is 20 years and the uncertainty results are evaluated at 100 years. By comparing with the case without small-scale variability simulation results show that the CO2 plume sizes in the horizontal direction increase from tens of meters to hundreds of meters when the variances of small-scale variability are varied from 1.0 to 4.0. The changes of correlation lengths (i.e., from 100m, 200m, to 400m) show small contribution on the size increases of CO2 plumes. Other uncertainties of chemical concentrations show behaviors similar to the CO2 plume patterns.

Determining erosion relevant soil characteristics with a small-scale rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, M.; Schmidt, J.

2009-04-01

The use of soil erosion models is of great importance in soil and water conservation. Routine application of these models on the regional scale is not at least limited by the high parameter demands. Although the EROSION 3D simulation model is operating with a comparable low number of parameters, some of the model input variables could only be determined by rainfall simulation experiments. The existing data base of EROSION 3D was created in the mid 90s based on large-scale rainfall simulation experiments on 22x2m sized experimental plots. Up to now this data base does not cover all soil and field conditions adequately. Therefore a new campaign of experiments would be essential to produce additional information especially with respect to the effects of new soil management practices (e.g. long time conservation tillage, non tillage). The rainfall simulator used in the actual campaign consists of 30 identic modules, which are equipped with oscillating rainfall nozzles. Veejet 80/100 (Spraying Systems Co., Wheaton, IL) are used in order to ensure best possible comparability to natural rainfalls with respect to raindrop size distribution and momentum transfer. Central objectives of the small-scale rainfall simulator are - effectively application - provision of comparable results to large-scale rainfall simulation experiments. A crucial problem in using the small scale simulator is the restriction on rather small volume rates of surface runoff. Under this conditions soil detachment is governed by raindrop impact. Thus impact of surface runoff on particle detachment cannot be reproduced adequately by a small-scale rainfall simulator With this problem in mind this paper presents an enhanced small-scale simulator which allows a virtual multiplication of the plot length by feeding additional sediment loaded water to the plot from upstream. Thus is possible to overcome the plot length limited to 3m while reproducing nearly similar flow conditions as in rainfall experiments on standard plots. The simulator is extensively applied to plots of different soil types, crop types and management systems. The comparison with existing data sets obtained by large-scale rainfall simulations show that results can adequately be reproduced by the applied combination of small-scale rainfall simulator and sediment loaded water influx.

Seasonality and intermittency of the ocean dynamics at scales smaller than 100 km in the world ocean: A scientific challenge for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Su, Z.; Klein, P.; Thompson, A. F.; Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.

2016-12-01

The major observational advance expected from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimeter, compared with existing altimeters, is that it will provide wide-swath (120 km) along-track data that permit the sampling of oceanic scales between 15 and 150km. The potential of this satellite mission is to understand the dynamical impact of these small scales on ocean dynamics. Such impact is known to affect the vertical velocity field (and therefore the vertical fluxes of ocean properties) and significantly affect both the inverse and direct kinetic energy cascades. The need to monitor these scales on a global scale is illustrated by the results of a realistic global ocean simulation. This model has 1/48-degree horizontal grid spacing, 90 vertical levels, and the inclusion of tidal forcing. This simulation reveals a strong seasonality of ocean dynamics at scales less than 100 km, not only in the previously documented regions, such as the Kuroshio extension, Gulf Stream, and subtropical gyres; but also in most other regions, such as most of the Southern Hemisphere and the North-East Atlantic. This strong seasonality, with a maximum amplitude consistently in winter, is associated with deep winter mixed-layer and energetic mesoscale eddies, pointing to mixed-layer instability as a major driver of the seasonality of dynamics at small scales. In addition to seasonal variations, strong intermittencies of ocean dynamics with a period of one to two weeks are also observed occasionally with the same amplitude as the seasonal variability. In this presentation, we discuss the consequences and the challenges posed by the strong spatial and temporal variability to SWOT data analysis.

Use of a handheld low-cost sensor to explore the effect of urban design features on local-scale spatial and temporal air quality variability.

PubMed

Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

2018-04-01

Portable low-cost instruments have been validated and used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at multiple sites over a small urban area with 20min time resolution. We use these results combined with land use regression (LUR) and rank correlation methods to explore the effects of traffic, urban design features, and local meteorology and atmosphere chemistry on small-scale spatio-temporal variations. We measured NO 2 at 45 sites around the downtown area of Vancouver, BC, in spring 2016, and constructed four different models: i) a model based on averaging concentrations observed at each site over the whole measurement period, and separate temporal models for ii) morning, iii) midday, and iv) afternoon. Redesign of the temporal models using the average model predictors as constants gave three 'hybrid' models that used both spatial and temporal variables. These accounted for approximately 50% of the total variation with mean absolute error±5ppb. Ranking sites by concentration and by change in concentration across the day showed a shift of high NO 2 concentrations across the central city from morning to afternoon. Locations could be identified in which NO 2 concentration was determined by the geography of the site, and others as ones in which the concentration changed markedly from morning to afternoon indicating the importance of temporal controls. Rank correlation results complemented LUR in identifying significant urban design variables that impacted NO 2 concentration. High variability across a relatively small space was partially described by predictor variables related to traffic (bus stop density, speed limits, traffic counts, distance to traffic lights), atmospheric chemistry (ozone, dew point), and environment (land use, trees). A high-density network recording continuously would be needed fully to capture local variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forcey, G.M.; Linz, G.M.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Bleier, W.J.

2007-01-01

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

Thermal maps of Jupiter - Spatial organization and time dependence of stratospheric temperatures, 1980 to 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orton, Glenn S.; Friedson, A. James; Baines, Kevin H.; Martin, Terry Z.; West, Robert A.; Caldwell, John; Hammel, Heidi B.; Bergstralh, Jay T.; Malcolm, Michael E.

1991-01-01

The spatial organization and time dependence of Jupiter's stratospheric temperatures have been measured by observing thermal emission from the 7.8-micrometer CH4 band. These temperatures, observed through the greater part of a Jovian year, exhibit the influence of seasonal radiative forcing. Distinct bands of high temperature are located at the poles and midlatitudes, while the equator alternates between warm and cold with a period of approximately 4 years. Substantial longitudinal variability is often observed within the warm midlatitude bands, and occasionally elsewhere on the planet. This variability includes small, localized structures, as well as large-scale waves with wavelengths longer than about 30,000 kilometers. The amplitudes of the waves vary on a time scale of about 1 month; structures on a smaller scale may have lifetimes of only days. Waves observed in 1985, 1987, and 1988 propagated with group velocities less than + or - 30 meters/sec.

A Preliminary Model Study of the Large-Scale Seasonal Cycle in Bottom Pressure Over the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

1998-01-01

Output from the primitive equation model of Semtner and Chervin is used to examine the seasonal cycle in bottom pressure (Pb) over the global ocean. Effects of the volume-conserving formulation of the model on the calculation Of Pb are considered. The estimated seasonal, large-scale Pb signals have amplitudes ranging from less than 1 cm over most of the deep ocean to several centimeters over shallow, boundary regions. Variability generally increases toward the western sides of the basins, and is also larger in some Southern Ocean regions. An oscillation between subtropical and higher latitudes in the North Pacific is clear. Comparison with barotropic simulations indicates that, on basin scales, seasonal Pb variability is related to barotropic dynamics and the seasonal cycle in Ekman pumping, and results from a small, net residual in mass divergence from the balance between Ekman and Sverdrup flows.

The relation between magnetic and material arms in models for spiral galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, D.; Beck, R.; Sokoloff, D.; Stepanov, R.; Krause, M.; Arshakian, T. G.

2013-08-01

Context. Observations of polarized radio emission show that large-scale (regular) magnetic fields in spiral galaxies are not fully axisymmetric, but generally stronger in interarm regions. In some nearby galaxies such as NGC 6946 they are organized in narrow magnetic arms situated between the material spiral arms. Aims: The phenomenon of magnetic arms and their relation to the optical spiral arms (the material arms) calls for an explanation in the framework of galactic dynamo theory. Several possibilities have been suggested but are not completely satisfactory; here we attempt a consistent investigation. Methods: We use a 2D mean-field dynamo model in the no-z approximation and add injections of small-scale magnetic field, taken to result from supernova explosions, to represent the effects of dynamo action on smaller scales. This injection of small scale field is situated along the spiral arms, where star-formation mostly occurs. Results: A straightforward explanation of magnetic arms as a result of modulation of the dynamo mechanism by material arms struggles to produce pronounced magnetic arms, at least with realistic parameters, without introducing new effects such as a time lag between Coriolis force and α-effect. In contrast, by taking into account explicitly the small-scale magnetic field that is injected into the arms by the action of the star forming regions that are concentrated there, we can obtain dynamo models with magnetic structures of various forms that can be compared with magnetic arms. These are rather variable entities and their shape changes significantly on timescales of a few 100 Myr. Properties of magnetic arms can be controlled by changing the model parameters. In particular, a lower injection rate of small-scale field makes the magnetic configuration smoother and eliminates distinct magnetic arms. Conclusions: We conclude that magnetic arms can be considered as coherent magnetic structures generated by large-scale dynamo action, and associated with spatially modulated small-scale magnetic fluctuations, caused by enhanced star formation rates within the material arms.

Methane eddy covariance flux measurements from a low flying aircraft: Bridging the scale gap between local and regional emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayres, D. S.; Dobosy, R.; Dumas, E. J.; Kochendorfer, J.; Wilkerson, J.; Anderson, J. G.

2017-12-01

The Arctic contains a large reservoir of organic matter stored in permafrost and clathrates. Varying geology and hydrology across the Arctic, even on small scales, can cause large variability in surface carbon fluxes and partitioning between methane and carbon dioxide. This makes upscaling from point source measurements such as small flux towers or chambers difficult. Ground based measurements can yield high temporal resolution and detailed information about a specific location, but due to the inaccessibility of most of the Arctic to date have only made measurements at very few sites. In August 2013, a small aircraft, flying low over the surface (5-30 m), and carrying an air turbulence probe and spectroscopic instruments to measure methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapor and their isotopologues, flew over the North Slope of Alaska. During the six flights multiple comparisons were made with a ground based Eddy Covariance tower as well as three region surveys flights of fluxes over three areas each approximately 2500 km2. We present analysis using the Flux Fragment Method and surface landscape classification maps to relate the fluxes to different surface land types. We show examples of how we use the aircraft data to upscale from a eddy covariance tower and map spatial variability across different ecotopes.

Dimensions of operational stress and forms of unacceptable risk taking with small arms and munitions.

PubMed

Ben-Shalom, Uzi

2015-01-01

Accidents with small arms and munitions during deployment is a significant safety concern for leaders and safety specialists in combat units. Operational stress may lead to forms of unacceptable risk taking with small arms that may underlie some of these accidents. The present research studied the correlation between two dimensions of operational stress, two forms of risk taking with small arms among combat unit soldiers and possible mediators. The dimensions of operational threat, negative affect and personality profile from the EPQ-R-S were predictors; "exaggerated preparedness" and "risky games with small arms and munitions" were dependent variables; safety climate of the platoon served as a mediator variable. The participants were 461 compulsory service combat soldiers in 31 companies. This field study was conducted during period of top security alert. The results reveal that perceived threat is indeed correlated with exaggerated operational preparedness whereas general emotional state was correlated with risky games with small arms. Safety climate mediated only the correlation between general emotional state and risky games with small arms and munitions. Preparedness and risky games were predicted by the interaction of Psychoticism and the Lie Scale from the EPQ-R-S. The results may enhance the efforts in reducing risk taking and prevention of accidents with small arms and munitions during and following deployment.

Designing Performance Measurement For Supply Chain's Actors And Regulator Using Scale Balanced Scorecard And Data Envelopment Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusrini, Elisa; Subagyo; Aini Masruroh, Nur

2016-01-01

This research is a sequel of the author's earlier conducted researches in the fields of designing of integrated performance measurement between supply chain's actors and regulator. In the previous paper, the design of performance measurement is done by combining Balanced Scorecard - Supply Chain Operation Reference - Regulator Contribution model and Data Envelopment Analysis. This model referred as B-S-Rc-DEA model. The combination has the disadvantage that all the performance variables have the same weight. This paper investigates whether by giving weight to performance variables will produce more sensitive performance measurement in detecting performance improvement. Therefore, this paper discusses the development of the model B-S-Rc-DEA by giving weight to its performance'variables. This model referred as Scale B-S-Rc-DEA model. To illustrate the model of development, some samples from small medium enterprises of leather craft industry supply chain in province of Yogyakarta, Indonesia are used in this research. It is found that Scale B-S-Rc-DEA model is more sensitive to detecting performance improvement than B-S- Rc-DEA model.

Postoperative self-efficacy and psychological morbidity in radical prostatectomy1

PubMed Central

da Mata, Luciana Regina Ferreira; de Carvalho, Emilia Campos; Gomes, Cássia Regina Gontijo; da Silva, Ana Cristina; Pereira, Maria da Graça

2015-01-01

Objective: evaluate the general and perceived self-efficacy, psychological morbidity, and knowledge about postoperative care of patients submitted to radical prostatectomy. Identify the relationships between the variables and know the predictors of self-efficacy. Method: descriptive, cross-sectional study, conducted with 76 hospitalized men. The scales used were the General and Perceived Self-efficacy Scale and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, in addition to sociodemographic, clinical and knowledge questionnaires. Results: a negative relationship was found for self-efficacy in relation to anxiety and depression. Psychological morbidity was a significant predictor variable for self-efficacy. An active professional situation and the waiting time for surgery also proved to be relevant variables for anxiety and knowledge, respectively. Conclusion: participants had a good level of general and perceived self-efficacy and small percentage of depression. With these findings, it is possible to produce the profile of patients about their psychological needs after radical prostatectomy and, thus, allow the nursing professionals to act holistically, considering not only the need for care of physical nature, but also of psychosocial nature. PMID:26487129

Measuring high spatiotemporal variability in saltation intensity using a low-cost Saltation Detection System: Wind tunnel and field experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, W.; van Dam, D. B.; Delbecque, N.; Verdoodt, A.; Ruessink, B. G.; Sterk, G.

2018-04-01

The commonly observed over prediction of aeolian saltation transport on sandy beaches is, at least in part, caused by saltation intermittency. To study small-scale saltation processes, high frequency saltation sensors are required on a high spatial resolution. Therefore, we developed a low-cost Saltation Detection System (SalDecS) with the aim to measure saltation intensity at a frequency of 10 Hz and with a spatial resolution of 0.10 m in wind-normal direction. Linearity and equal sensitivity of the saltation sensors were investigated during wind tunnel and field experiments. Wind tunnel experiments with a set of 7 SalDec sensors revealed that the variability of sensor sensitivity is at maximum 9% during relatively low saltation intensities. During more intense saltation the variability of sensor sensitivity decreases. A sigmoidal fit describes the relation between mass flux and sensor output measured during 5 different wind conditions. This indicates an increasing importance of sensor saturation with increasing mass flux. We developed a theoretical model to simulate and describe the effect of grain size, grain velocity and saltation intensity on sensor saturation. Time-averaged field measurements revealed sensitivity equality for 85 out of a set of 89 horizontally deployed SalDec sensors. On these larger timescales (hours) saltation variability imposed by morphological features, such as sand strips, can be recognized. We conclude that the SalDecS can be used to measure small-scale spatiotemporal variabilities of saltation intensity to investigate saltation characteristics related to wind turbulence.

Do GCM's predict the climate.... Or the low frequency weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.; Varon, D.

2012-04-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500 - 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT vary in power law manners ≈ Δt**H the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale (Δt). At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) H changes sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime. In this regime, the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is low, stable, corresponding to our usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, once again H>0, so that the variability increases with scale: the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, to define "climate states" as fluctuations at scale τc and then "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods (Δt>τc). We show that the intermediate low frequency weather regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched so that only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by stochastic cascade models of weather, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM based climate forecasting systems including those of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (Paris) and the Earth Forecasting System (Hamburg). In order for these systems to go beyond simply predicting low frequency weather i.e. in order for them to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. Using statistical scaling techniques we examine the scale dependence of fluctuations from forced and unforced GCM outputs, including from the ECHO-G and EFS simulations in the Millenium climate reconstruction project and compare this with data, multiproxies and paleo data. Our general conclusion is that the models systematically underestimate the multidecadal, multicentennial scale variability.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Understanding the spatial complexity of surface hoar from slope to range scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrikx, J.

2015-12-01

Surface hoar, once buried, is a common weak layer type in avalanche accidents in continental and intermountain snowpacks around the World. Despite this, there is still limited understanding of the spatial variability in both the formation of, and eventual burial of, surface hoar at spatial scales which are of critical importance to avalanche forecasters. While it is relatively well understood that aspect plays an important role in the spatial location of the formation, and burial of these grain forms, due to the unequal distribution of incoming radiation, this factor alone does not explain the complex and often confusing spatial pattern of these grains forms throughout the landscape at different spatial scales. In this paper we present additional data from a unique data set including over two hundred days of manual observations of surface hoar at sixteen locations on Pioneer Mountain at the Yellowstone Club in southwestern Montana. Using this wealth of observational data located on different aspects, elevations and exposures, coupled with detailed meteorological observations, and detailed slope scale observation, we examine the spatial variability of surface hoar at this scale, and examine the factors that control its spatial distribution. Our results further supports our preliminary work, which shows that small-scale slope conditions, meteorological differences, and local scale lapse rates, can greatly influence the spatial variability of surface hoar, over and above that which aspect alone can explain. These results highlight our incomplete understanding of the processes at both the slope and range scale, and are likely to have implications for both regional and local scale avalanche forecasting in environments where surface hoar cause ongoing instabilities.

Determination of atmospheric moisture structure and infrared cooling rates from high resolution MAMS radiance data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menzel, W. Paul; Moeller, Christopher C.; Smith, William L.

1991-01-01

This program has applied Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) high resolution data to the problem of monitoring atmospheric quantities of moisture and radiative flux at small spatial scales. MAMS, with 100-m horizontal resolution in its four infrared channels, was developed to study small scale atmospheric moisture and surface thermal variability, especially as related to the development of clouds, precipitation, and severe storms. High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data has been used to develop a high spectral resolution retrieval algorithm for producing vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture. The results of this program are summarized and a list of publications resulting from this contract is presented. Selected publications are attached as an appendix.

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, L.; Putman, B.; Collatz, J.; Gregg, W.

2012-01-01

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Scaling laws and vortex profiles in two-dimensional decaying turbulence.

PubMed

Laval, J P; Chavanis, P H; Dubrulle, B; Sire, C

2001-06-01

We use high resolution numerical simulations over several hundred of turnover times to study the influence of small scale dissipation onto vortex statistics in 2D decaying turbulence. A scaling regime is detected when the scaling laws are expressed in units of mean vorticity and integral scale, like predicted in Carnevale et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 66, 2735 (1991), and it is observed that viscous effects spoil this scaling regime. The exponent controlling the decay of the number of vortices shows some trends toward xi=1, in agreement with a recent theory based on the Kirchhoff model [C. Sire and P. H. Chavanis, Phys. Rev. E 61, 6644 (2000)]. In terms of scaled variables, the vortices have a similar profile with a functional form related to the Fermi-Dirac distribution.

Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

2017-12-01

In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

The effects of neuron morphology on graph theoretic measures of network connectivity: the analysis of a two-level statistical model.

PubMed

Aćimović, Jugoslava; Mäki-Marttunen, Tuomo; Linne, Marja-Leena

2015-01-01

We developed a two-level statistical model that addresses the question of how properties of neurite morphology shape the large-scale network connectivity. We adopted a low-dimensional statistical description of neurites. From the neurite model description we derived the expected number of synapses, node degree, and the effective radius, the maximal distance between two neurons expected to form at least one synapse. We related these quantities to the network connectivity described using standard measures from graph theory, such as motif counts, clustering coefficient, minimal path length, and small-world coefficient. These measures are used in a neuroscience context to study phenomena from synaptic connectivity in the small neuronal networks to large scale functional connectivity in the cortex. For these measures we provide analytical solutions that clearly relate different model properties. Neurites that sparsely cover space lead to a small effective radius. If the effective radius is small compared to the overall neuron size the obtained networks share similarities with the uniform random networks as each neuron connects to a small number of distant neurons. Large neurites with densely packed branches lead to a large effective radius. If this effective radius is large compared to the neuron size, the obtained networks have many local connections. In between these extremes, the networks maximize the variability of connection repertoires. The presented approach connects the properties of neuron morphology with large scale network properties without requiring heavy simulations with many model parameters. The two-steps procedure provides an easier interpretation of the role of each modeled parameter. The model is flexible and each of its components can be further expanded. We identified a range of model parameters that maximizes variability in network connectivity, the property that might affect network capacity to exhibit different dynamical regimes.

Designing hydrological and financial instruments for small scale farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: A socio-hydrological analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshtaghi, M.; Pande, S.; Savenije, H. H. G.; den Besten, N. I.

2016-12-01

Eighty percent of the farmland in Sub-Saharan Africa is managed by smallholders and they are often economically stressed; low income as a result of poor crop yields. Indeed, smallholders' well-being is naturally important, which often suffers due to hydro-climatic variability and fluctuations in prices of inputs (seeds, fertilizer) and outputs (crops). Appropriate designed insurances can guarantee their wellbeing and food security in whole continent, if they focus on specified requirement of smallholders in each region. In this research, we apply recently developed socio-hydrologic modelling, which interprets a small scale farm system as a coupled system of 6 variables: soil moisture, solid fertility, capital, livestock, fodder and labor availability. By using datasets of potential evaporation, rainfall, land cover and etc, we want to make a comparison between application of yield index insurance, weather index insurance and biomass Index Insurance to highlight the importance of considering the interplay between fertilizer and water availability in food security and also determine type of regional insurance which works better in a certain land.

Use of Bayesian networks in predicting contamination of drinking water with E. coli in rural Vietnam.

PubMed

Hall, David C; Le, Quynh B

2017-06-01

More than 70 million Vietnamese rely on small-scale farming for some form of household income. Water on many of those farms is contaminated with waste, including animal manure, partly due to non-sustainable waste management. This increases the risk of water-related zoonotic disease transmission. The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of various demographic and management factors on the likelihood of finding Escherichia coli in drinking water sourced from wells and rainwater on farms in Vietnam. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was designed to describe association between various deterministic and probabilistic variables gathered from 600 small-scale integrated (SSI) farmers in Vietnam. The variables relate to E. coli content of their drinking water sourced on-farm from wells and rainwater, and stored in on-farm large vessels, including concrete water tanks. The BBN was developed using the Netica software tool; the model was calibrated and goodness of fit examined using concordance of predictability. Sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that choice variables, including engagement in mitigation of water contamination and livestock management activities, were particularly likely to influence endpoint values, reflecting the highly variable and impactful nature of preferences, attitudes and beliefs relating to mitigation strategies. Quantitative variables including numbers of livestock (particularly chickens) and income also had a high impact. The highest concordance (62%) was achieved with the BBN reported in this paper. This BBN model of SSI farming in Vietnam is helpful in understanding the complexity of small-scale agriculture and how various factors work in concert to influence contamination of on-farm drinking water as indicated by the presence of E. coli. The model will also be useful for identifying and estimating the impact of policy options such as improved delivery of clean water management training for rural areas, particularly where such analysis is combined with other analytical and policy tools. With appropriate knowledge translation, the model results will be particularly useful in helping SSI farmers understand their options for engaging in public health mitigation strategies addressing clean water that do not significantly disrupt their agriculture-based livelihoods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantifying relationships between abundances of cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa and terrain features: A case study on the Norwegian margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Ruiju; Purser, Autun; Guinan, Janine; Unnithan, Vikram; Yu, Jinsongdi; Zhang, Chengcheng

2016-03-01

An understanding of how terrain features influence abundance of a particular species greatly aids in the development of accurate predictive habitat suitability models. In this study, we investigated the observed seafloor coverage of cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa in relation to seabed topography at the Sotbakken and Røst Reefs on the Norwegian margin. The primary terrain features at the study sites are a SW-NE stretching mound at Sotbakken Reef and SW-NE running ridges at Røst Reef, located at depths of ~300-400 m and ~250-320 m respectively. Ship-borne multibeam bathymetry data, JAGO dive video data and JAGO positioning data were used in this study. Terrain variables were calculated at scales of 30 m, 90 m and 170 m based on the bathymetry data. Additionally, we investigated the relationships between the terrain variables at multiple scales using the Unweighted Pair Group Method. The observed L. pertusa coverage at both reefs was found to be significantly correlated with most investigated terrain variables, with correlations increasing in strength with increase in analysis scale, suggesting that large scale terrain features likely play an important role in influencing L. pertusa distribution. Small scale terrain variations appear less important in determining the suitability of a region of seafloor for L. pertusa colonization. We conclude that bathymetric position index and curvature, as well as seabed aspect, most strongly correlate with coral coverage, indicating that local topographic highs, with an orientation into inflowing bottom currents, are most suitable for L. pertusa habitation. These results indicate that developing habitat suitability models for L. pertusa will benefit from inclusion of particular key terrain variables (e.g. aspect, plan curvature, mean curvature and slope) and that these should ideally be computed at multiple spatial scales with a greater gap in scales than we used in this study, to maximize the inclusion of the key variables in the model whilst minimizing redundancy.

Polychaete functional diversity in shallow habitats: Shelter from the storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Julia M.; Gusmao, Joao B.; Mattos, Gustavo; Lana, Paulo

2018-05-01

Innovative approaches are needed to help understanding how species diversity is related to the latitudinal gradient at large or small scales. We have applied a novel approach, by combining morphological and biological traits, to assess the relative importance of the large scale latitudinal gradient and regional morphodynamic drivers in shaping the functional diversity of polychaete assemblages in shallow water habitats, from exposed to estuarine sandy beaches. We used literature data on polychaetes from beaches along the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast together with data on beach types, slope, grain size, temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll a concentration. Generalized linear models on the FDis index for functional diversity calculated for each site and a combined RLQ and fourth-corner analysis were used to investigate relationships between functional traits and environmental variables. Functional diversity was not related to the latitudinal gradient but negatively correlated with grain size and beach slope. Functional diversity was highest in flat beaches with small grain size, little wave exposure and enhanced primary production, indicating that small scale morphodynamic conditions are the primary drivers of polychaete functional diversity.

Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaushal, S.S.; Groffman, P.M.; Band, L.E.; Shields, C.A.; Morgan, R.P.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Belt, K.T.; Swan, C.M.; Findlay, S.E.G.; Fisher, G.T.

2008-01-01

We investigated regional effects of urbanization and land use change on nitrate concentrations in approximately 1,000 small streams in Maryland during record drought and wet years in 2001-2003. We also investigated changes in nitrate-N export during the same time period in 8 intensively monitored small watersheds across an urbanization gradient in Baltimore, Maryland. Nitrate-N concentrations in Maryland were greatest in agricultural streams, urban streams, and forest streams respectively. During the period of record drought and wet years, nitrate-N exports in Baltimore showed substantial variation in 6 suburban/urban streams (2.9-15.3 kg/ha/y), 1 agricultural stream (3.4-38.9 kg/ha/y), and 1 forest stream (0.03-0.2 kg/ ha/y). Interannual variability was similar for small Baltimore streams and nearby well-monitored tributaries and coincided with record hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Discharge-weighted mean annual nitrate concentrations showed a variable tendency to decrease/increase with changes in annual runoff, although total N export generally increased with annual runoff. N retention in small Baltimore watersheds during the 2002 drought was 85%, 99%, and 94% for suburban, forest, and agricultural watersheds, respectively, and declined to 35%, 91%, and 41% during the wet year of 2003. Our results suggest that urban land use change can increase the vulnerability of ecosystem nitrogen retention functions to climatic variability. Further work is necessary to characterize patterns of nitrate-N export and retention in small urbanizing watersheds under varying climatic conditions to improve future forecasting and watershed scale restoration efforts aimed at improving nitrate-N retention. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

Statistically extracted fundamental watershed variables for estimating the loads of total nitrogen in small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kronholm, Scott C.; Capel, Paul D.; Terziotti, Silvia

2016-01-01

Accurate estimation of total nitrogen loads is essential for evaluating conditions in the aquatic environment. Extrapolation of estimates beyond measured streams will greatly expand our understanding of total nitrogen loading to streams. Recursive partitioning and random forest regression were used to assess 85 geospatial, environmental, and watershed variables across 636 small (<585 km2) watersheds to determine which variables are fundamentally important to the estimation of annual loads of total nitrogen. Initial analysis led to the splitting of watersheds into three groups based on predominant land use (agricultural, developed, and undeveloped). Nitrogen application, agricultural and developed land area, and impervious or developed land in the 100-m stream buffer were commonly extracted variables by both recursive partitioning and random forest regression. A series of multiple linear regression equations utilizing the extracted variables were created and applied to the watersheds. As few as three variables explained as much as 76 % of the variability in total nitrogen loads for watersheds with predominantly agricultural land use. Catchment-scale national maps were generated to visualize the total nitrogen loads and yields across the USA. The estimates provided by these models can inform water managers and help identify areas where more in-depth monitoring may be beneficial.

Flow and residence times of dynamic river bank storage and sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomez-Velez, J.D.; Wilson, J.L.; Cardenas, M.B.; Harvey, Judson

2017-01-01

Hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) vary significantly along river corridors due to spatiotemporal changes in discharge and geomorphology. This variability results in the emergence of biogeochemical hot-spots and hot-moments that ultimately control solute and energy transport and ecosystem services from the local to the watershed scales. In this work, we use a reduced-order model to gain mechanistic understanding of river bank storage and sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange induced by transient river discharge. This is the first time that a systematic analysis of both processes is presented and serves as an initial step to propose parsimonious, physics-based models for better predictions of water quality at the large watershed scale. The effects of channel sinuosity, alluvial valley slope, hydraulic conductivity, and river stage forcing intensity and duration are encapsulated in dimensionless variables that can be easily estimated or constrained. We find that the importance of perturbations in the hyporheic zone's flux, residence times, and geometry is mainly explained by two-dimensionless variables representing the ratio of the hydraulic time constant of the aquifer and the duration of the event (Γd) and the importance of the ambient groundwater flow ( ). Our model additionally shows that even systems with small sensitivity, resulting in small changes in the hyporheic zone extent, are characterized by highly variable exchange fluxes and residence times. These findings highlight the importance of including dynamic changes in hyporheic zones for typical HEF models such as the transient storage model.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katherine; Hamlington, Peter; Pinardi, Nadia; Zavatarelli, Marco

2017-04-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions that can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parameterizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17) that follows the chemical functional group approach, which allows for non-Redfield stoichiometric ratios and the exchange of matter through units of carbon, nitrate, and phosphate. This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time-series Study and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Hamlington, P.; Pinardi, N.; Zavatarelli, M.; Milliff, R. F.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions which can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parametrizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17). This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time Series and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Effects of Soil Moisture Thresholds in Runoff Generation in two nested gauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorentino, M.; Gioia, A.; Iacobellis, V.; Manfreda, S.; Margiotta, M. R.; Onorati, B.; Rivelli, A. R.; Sole, A.

2009-04-01

Regarding catchment response to intense storm events, while the relevance of antecedent soil moisture conditions is generally recognized, the role and the quantification of runoff thresholds is still uncertain. Among others, Grayson et al. (1997) argue that above a wetness threshold a substantial portion of a small basin acts in unison and contributes to the runoff production. Investigations were conducted through an experimental approach and in particular exploiting the hydrological data monitored on "Fiumarella of Corleto" catchment (Southern Italy). The field instrumentation ensures continuous monitoring of all fundamental hydrological variables: climate forcing, streamflow and soil moisture. The experimental basin is equipped with two water level installations used to measure the hydrological response of the entire basin (with an area of 32 km2) and of a subcatchment of 0.65 km2. The aim of the present research is to better understand the dynamics of soil moisture and the runoff generation during flood events, comparing the data recorded in the transect and the runoff at the two different scales. Particular attention was paid to the influence of the soil moisture content on runoff activation mechanisms. We found that, the threshold value, responsible of runoff activation, is equal or almost to field capacity. In fact, we observed a rapid change in the subcatchment response when the mean soil moisture reaches a value close to the range of variability of the field capacity measured along a monitored transect of the small subcatchment. During dry periods the runoff coefficient is almost zero for each of the events recorded. During wet periods, however, it is rather variable and depends almost only on the total rainfall. Changing from the small scale (0.65 km2) up to the medium scale (represented by the basin of 32 km2) the threshold mechanism in runoff production is less detectable because masked by the increased spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation cover and soil texture.

Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream-aquifer exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Winter, C. L.; Wang, Z.

2015-08-01

Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River Basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream-aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow-paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream-aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW simulation environment, and the PEST tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop log-normally distributed conductivity (K) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow-paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer-stream exchanges. Since surface water-groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Reducing voluntary, avoidable turnover through selection.

PubMed

Barrick, Murray R; Zimmerman, Ryan D

2005-01-01

The authors investigated the efficacy of several variables used to predict voluntary, organizationally avoidable turnover even before the employee is hired. Analyses conducted on applicant data collected in 2 separate organizations (N = 445) confirmed that biodata, clear-purpose attitudes and intentions, and disguised-purpose dispositional retention scales predicted voluntary, avoidable turnover (rs ranged from -.16 to -.22, R = .37, adjusted R = .33). Results also revealed that biodata scales and disguised-purpose retention scales added incremental validity, whereas clear-purpose retention scales did not explain significant incremental variance in turnover beyond what was explained by biodata and disguised-purpose scales. Furthermore, disparate impact (subgroup differences on race, sex, and age) was consistently small (average d = 0.12 when the majority group scored higher than the minority group).

Difference infiltrometer: a method to measure temporally variable infiltration rates during rainstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Ebel, Brian A.

2012-01-01

We developed a difference infiltrometer to measure time series of non-steady infiltration rates during rainstorms at the point scale. The infiltrometer uses two, tipping bucket rain gages. One gage measures rainfall onto, and the other measures runoff from, a small circular plot about 0.5-m in diameter. The small size allows the infiltration rate to be computed as the difference of the cumulative rainfall and cumulative runoff without having to route water through a large plot. Difference infiltrometers were deployed in an area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire near Boulder, Colorado, USA, and data were collected during the summer of 2011. The difference infiltrometer demonstrated the capability to capture different magnitudes of infiltration rates and temporal variability associated with convective (high intensity, short duration) and cyclonic (low intensity, long duration) rainstorms. Data from the difference infiltrometer were used to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil affected by the heat from a wildfire. The difference infiltrometer is portable and can be deployed in rugged, steep terrain and does not require the transport of water, as many rainfall simulators require, because it uses natural rainfall. It can be used to assess infiltration models, determine runoff coefficients, identify rainfall depth or rainfall intensity thresholds to initiate runoff, estimate parameters for infiltration models, and compare remediation treatments on disturbed landscapes. The difference infiltrometer can be linked with other types of soil monitoring equipment in long-term studies for detecting temporal and spatial variability at multiple time scales and in nested designs where it can be linked to hillslope and basin-scale runoff responses.

Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

2017-12-01

The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate variations play a role in TC intensification.

IAS Mesoscale Surface Circulation Observed Through Satellite Altimetry and its Influence in a Small Scale, Coastal Domain, Studied with a ROMS Model of the Cariaco Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvera-Azcarate, A.; Barth, A.; Virmani, J. I.; Weisberg, R. H.

2007-05-01

The Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) surface circulation is characterized by large scale currents. The Caribbean current, which originates in the Lesser Antilles, travels westwards through the Caribbean Sea and eastern Mexico and passes through the Gulf of Mexico to finally form the Gulf Stream. This complex system of currents is also characterized by a high mesoscale variability, such as eddies and meanders. The objectives of this work are twofold: first, the multi-scale surface circulation of the IAS is described using satellite altimetry. The topographic influence of the different basins forming the IAS, the characteristic time and spatial scales, and the time variability of the surface circulation will be addressed. The second objective is to analyze the influence of this large scale circulation on a small scale coastal domain with a ROMS-based model of the Cariaco basin (Venezuela). Cariaco is a deep (1400 m), semi-enclosed basin connected to the open ocean by two shallow channels (Tortuga and Centinela Channels). Its connection with the open sea, and therefore the ventilation of the basin, occurs in the surface layers. The Cariaco ROMS model will be used to study the exchanges of mass, heat and salt through the channels. A 1/60 degree ROMS model nested in the global 1/12 degree HYCOM model from the Naval Research Laboratory will be used for this study. In addition, a series of observations (satellite altimetry and in situ temperature, salinity and velocity data), will be used to assess the influence of the Caribbean circulation on the basin.

Investigating the dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and clouds on the spatial scale of large-scale forcing at SGP [Investigating the scale dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and cloud by using gridded forcing data at SGP

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2017-08-05

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

Ecosystem variability in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Arny L.; Day, Robert H.; Gall, Adrian E.; Aerts, Lisanne A. M.; Delarue, Julien; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Questel, Jennifer M.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Wisdom, Sheyna S.

2017-12-01

Understanding influences of cumulative effects from multiple stressors in marine ecosystems requires an understanding of the sources for and scales of variability. A multidisciplinary ecosystem study in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2008-2013 investigated the variability of the study area's two adjacent sub-ecosystems: a pelagic system influenced by interannual and/or seasonal temporal variation at large, oceanographic (regional) scales, and a benthic-associated system more influenced by small-scale spatial variations. Variability in zooplankton communities reflected interannual oceanographic differences in waters advected northward from the Bering Sea, whereas variation in benthic communities was associated with seafloor and bottom-water characteristics. Variations in the planktivorous seabird community were correlated with prey distributions, whereas interaction effects in ANOVA for walruses were related to declines of sea-ice. Long-term shifts in seabird distributions were also related to changes in sea-ice distributions that led to more open water. Although characteristics of the lower trophic-level animals within sub-ecosystems result from oceanographic variations and interactions with seafloor topography, distributions of apex predators were related to sea-ice as a feeding platform (walruses) or to its absence (i.e., open water) for feeding (seabirds). The stability of prey resources appears to be a key factor in mediating predator interactions with other ocean characteristics. Seabirds reliant on highly-variable zooplankton prey show long-term changes as open water increases, whereas walruses taking benthic prey in biomass hotspots respond to sea-ice changes in the short-term. A better understanding of how variability scales up from prey to predators and how prey resource stability (including how critical prey respond to environmental changes over space and time) might be altered by climate and anthropogenic stressors is essential to predicting the future state of both the Chukchi and other arctic systems.

Co-evolution of Vegetation, Sediment Transport and Infiltration on semi-arid hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C. J.; Troch, P. A.; Lohse, K. A.; Sivapalan, M.

2011-12-01

Soils in semi-arid landscapes can vary over very small distances, with a great deal of variation associated with 'resource islands' created and maintained by woody vegetation. The distinct physical and hydraulic properties that arise in these islands can lead to spatial patterns of infiltration that have been implicated in the maintenance of the vegetation populating the island. Less well understood are the roles that the small-scale variability in soils plays in determining the transport of sediments, water and sediment-bound carbon and nitrogen across hillslopes. Here we explore these relationships using a coupled field and modeling approach. Detailed field data from hillslopes underlain by both granite and schist parent materials in the Santa Catalina mountains (part of the JSC Critical Zone Observatory) suggest that soils under individual velvet mesquite (latin name) contain higher concentration of soil organic matter and have higher hydraulic conductivity and water holding capacity. Greater infiltration and increased roughness under the canopy appears to lead to the formation of mounds that alter overland flow lines around the area under the canopy, particularly in the finer schist soils. This diversion leads to a complex distribution of shear stresses across the hillslope, creating systematic patterns in the transport of carbon and nitrogen rich soils under the canopies. The relationship between the small scale mechanism and the emergent pattern dynamics in the temporal variability of materials delivered to the stream from the hillslope are also examined, and the implications of these results for the modeling of water, sediment and nutrient fluxes at hillslope scales will be discussed.

Watershed-scale response of groundwater recharge to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation (Alberta, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Masaki; Farrow, Christopher R.

2014-12-01

Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y-1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y-1) in 1982-1995 to a high value (15 mm y-1) in 2003-2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

The NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model: 1999 Version (GRAM-99)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.

1999-01-01

The latest version of Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is presented and discussed. GRAM-99 uses either (binary) Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) or (ASCII) Global Gridded Upper Air Statistics (GGUAS) CD-ROM data sets, for 0-27 km altitudes. As with earlier versions, GRAM-99 provides complete geographical and altitude coverage for each month of the year. GRAM-99 uses a specially-developed data set, based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) data, for 20-120 km altitudes, and NASA's 1999 version Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-99) model for heights above 90 km. Fairing techniques assure smooth transition in overlap height ranges (20-27 km and 90-120 km). GRAM-99 includes water vapor and 11 other atmospheric constituents (O3, N2O, CO, CH4, CO2, N2, O2, O, A, He and H). A variable-scale perturbation model provides both large-scale (wave) and small-scale (stochastic) deviations from mean values for thermodynamic variables and horizontal and vertical wind components. The small-scale perturbation model includes improvements in representing intermittency ("patchiness"). A major new feature is an option to substitute Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data for conventional GRAM climatology when a trajectory passes sufficiently near any RRA site. A complete user's guide for running the program, plus sample input and output, is provided. An example is provided for how to incorporate GRAM-99 as subroutines in other programs (e.g., trajectory codes).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

An extensive spectroscopic time series of three Wolf-Rayet stars - I. The lifetime of large-scale structures in the wind of WR 134

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldoretta, E. J.; St-Louis, N.; Richardson, N. D.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Eversberg, T.; Hill, G. M.; Shenar, T.; Artigau, É.; Gauza, B.; Knapen, J. H.; Kubát, J.; Kubátová, B.; Maltais-Tariant, R.; Muñoz, M.; Pablo, H.; Ramiaramanantsoa, T.; Richard-Laferrière, A.; Sablowski, D. P.; Simón-Díaz, S.; St-Jean, L.; Bolduan, F.; Dias, F. M.; Dubreuil, P.; Fuchs, D.; Garrel, T.; Grutzeck, G.; Hunger, T.; Küsters, D.; Langenbrink, M.; Leadbeater, R.; Li, D.; Lopez, A.; Mauclaire, B.; Moldenhawer, T.; Potter, M.; dos Santos, E. M.; Schanne, L.; Schmidt, J.; Sieske, H.; Strachan, J.; Stinner, E.; Stinner, P.; Stober, B.; Strandbaek, K.; Syder, T.; Verilhac, D.; Waldschläger, U.; Weiss, D.; Wendt, A.

2016-08-01

During the summer of 2013, a 4-month spectroscopic campaign took place to observe the variabilities in three Wolf-Rayet stars. The spectroscopic data have been analysed for WR 134 (WN6b), to better understand its behaviour and long-term periodicity, which we interpret as arising from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the wind. By analysing the variability of the He II λ5411 emission line, the previously identified period was refined to P = 2.255 ± 0.008 (s.d.) d. The coherency time of the variability, which we associate with the lifetime of the CIRs in the wind, was deduced to be 40 ± 6 d, or ˜18 cycles, by cross-correlating the variability patterns as a function of time. When comparing the phased observational grey-scale difference images with theoretical grey-scales previously calculated from models including CIRs in an optically thin stellar wind, we find that two CIRs were likely present. A separation in longitude of Δφ ≃ 90° was determined between the two CIRs and we suggest that the different maximum velocities that they reach indicate that they emerge from different latitudes. We have also been able to detect observational signatures of the CIRs in other spectral lines (C IV λλ5802,5812 and He I λ5876). Furthermore, a DAC was found to be present simultaneously with the CIR signatures detected in the He I λ5876 emission line which is consistent with the proposed geometry of the large-scale structures in the wind. Small-scale structures also show a presence in the wind, simultaneously with the larger scale structures, showing that they do in fact co-exist.

Groundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Garcia, Celso; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique

2017-09-01

Groundwater is one of the largest and most important sources of fresh water on many regions under Mediterranean climate conditions, which are exposed to large precipitation variability that includes frequent meteorological drought episodes, and present high evapotranspiration rates and water demand during the dry season. The dependence on groundwater increases in those areas with predominant permeable lithologies, contributing to aquifer recharge and the abundance of ephemeral streams. The increasing pressure of tourism on water resources in many Mediterranean coastal areas, and uncertainty related to future precipitation and water availability, make it urgent to understand the spatio-temporal response of groundwater bodies to precipitation variability, if sustainable use of the resource is to be achieved. We present an assessment of the response of aquifers to precipitation variability based on correlations between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) across a Mediterranean island. We detected three main responses of aquifers to accumulated precipitation anomalies: (i) at short time scales of the SPI (<6 months); (ii) at medium time scales (6-24 months); and at long time scales (>24 months). The differing responses were mainly explained by differences in lithology and the percentage of highly permeable rock strata in the aquifer recharge areas. We also identified differences in the months and seasons when aquifer storages are more dependent on precipitation; these were related to climate seasonality and the degree of aquifer exploitation or underground water extraction. The recharge of some aquifers, especially in mountainous areas, is related to precipitation variability within a limited spatial extent, whereas for aquifers located in the plains, precipitation variability influence much larger areas; the topography and geological structure of the island explain these differences. Results indicate large spatial variability in the response of aquifers to precipitation in a very small area, highlighting the importance of having high spatial resolution hydro-climatic databases available to enable full understanding of the effects of climate variability on scarce water resources.

Autonomy and interdependence: beliefs of Brazilian mothers from state capitals and small towns.

PubMed

Vieira, Mauro Luis; Seidl-de-Moura, Maria Lucia; Macarini, Samira Mafioletti; Martins, Gabriela Dal Forno; Lordelo, Eulina da Rocha; Tokumaru, Rosana Suemi; Oliva, Angela Donate

2010-11-01

This study aimed to investigate characteristics of Brazilian mothers' beliefs system, in the dimensions of autonomy and interdependence. A group of 600 women, half from state capitals and half from small towns, participated in the study. They were individually interviewed with Scales of Allocentrism, Beliefs about Parental Practices and Socialization Goals. Paired and Independent samples t tests and Multivariate GLM were performed. The results indicate that although mothers from both contexts value autonomy, mothers inhabiting small towns considered the relational dimension as the most important; whereas mothers inhabiting capitals valued equally both dimensions, either in their beliefs about practices or in the socialization goals for their children. Mothers from small towns have a higher mean score for allocentrism than mothers living in capitals. Thus, place of residence proved to be a relevant variable in the modulation of maternal beliefs. Educational level was not a significant factor in the variables considered and with this group of mothers. The study results are discussed in terms of their contribution to the understanding of the complex relationship between dimensions of autonomy and interdependence in mothers' beliefs system.

Effects of a small seagull colony on trophic status and primary production in a Mediterranean coastal system (Marinello ponds, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signa, Geraldina; Mazzola, Antonio; Vizzini, Salvatrice

2012-10-01

Colonies of seabirds have been shown to influence nutrient cycling and primary production of coastal areas, but knowledge is still limited above all for smaller colonies. This study evaluates the influence of a small resident seagull colony (Larus michahellis Naumann, 1840) on a Mediterranean coastal system (Marinello ponds, Sicily, Italy). The presence of ornithogenic organic matter from seagull guano was first assessed at increasing distances from the colony using δ15N to indicate the effects of guano on the trophic status and primary production. The pond directly affected by guano deposition showed an anomalous water and sediment chemistry, especially regarding physico-chemical variables (pH), nitrogen isotopic signature, nutrient balance and phytoplankton biomass. These effects were not observed in the adjacent ponds, highlighting pronounced, small spatial-scale variability. Given the worldwide presence of seabird colonies and the scarcity of research on their effect on coastal marine areas, the study shows that seabird-mediated input may be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics of coastal areas, even where both the system in question and the colony are small.

Regional effects of vegetation restoration on water yield across the Loess Plateau, China

Treesearch

X. M. Feng; G. Sun; B. J. Fu; C. H. Su; Y. Liu; H. Lamparski

2012-01-01

The general relationships between vegetation and water yield under different climatic regimes are well established at a small watershed scale in the past century. However, applications of these basic theories to evaluate the regional effects of land cover change on water resources remain challenging due to the complex interactions of vegetation and climatic variability...

Nitrogen isotope patterns in Alaskan black spruce reflect organic nitrogen sources and the activity of ectomycorrihizal fungi

Treesearch

Jordan R. Mayor; Edward A.G. Schuur; Michelle C. Mack; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Erland Bääth

2012-01-01

Global patterns in soil, plant, and fungal stable isotopes of N (15N) show promise as integrated metrics of N cycling, particularly the activity of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. At small spatial scales, however, it remains difficult to differentiate the underlying causes of plant 15N variability and this limits the...

HYPOXIA-INDUCED GROWTH LIMITATION OF JUVENILE FISHES IN AN ESTUARINE NURSERY: ASSESSMENT OF SMALL-SCALE TEMPORAL DYNAMICS USING RNA:DNA

EPA Science Inventory

The ratio of RNA to DNA (RNA:DNA) in white muscle tissue of juvenile summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and weakfish (Cynoscion regalis) was used as a proxy for recent growth rate in an estuarine nursery. Variability in RNA:DNA was examined relative to temporal changes in te...

Carbon pools and fluxes in small temperate forest landscapes: Variability and implications for sampling design

Treesearch

John B. Bradford; Peter Weishampel; Marie-Louise Smith; Randall Kolka; Richard A. Birdsey; Scott V. Ollinger; Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

Assessing forest carbon storage and cycling over large areas is a growing challenge that is complicated by the inherent heterogeneity of forest systems. Field measurements must be conducted and analyzed appropriately to generate precise estimates at scales large enough for mapping or comparison with remote sensing data. In this study we examined...

A Survey of Spatial and Seasonal Water Isotope Variability on the Juneau Icefield, Alaksa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennis, D.; Carter, A.; Clinger, A. E.; Eads, O. L.; Gotwals, S.; Gunderson, J.; Hollyday, A. E.; Klein, E. S.; Markle, B. R.; Timms, J. R.

2015-12-01

The depletion of stable oxygen-hydrogen isotopes (δ18O and δH) is well correlated with temperature change, which is driven by variation in topography, climate, and atmospheric circulation. This study presents a survey of the spatial and seasonal variability of isotopic signatures on the Juneau Icefield (JI), Alaska, USA which spans over 3,000 square-kilometers. To examine small scale variability in the previous year's accumulation, samples were taken at regular intervals from snow pits and a one square-kilometer surficial grid. Surface snow samples were collected across the icefield to evaluate large scale variability, ranging approximately 1,000 meters in elevation and 100 kilometers in distance. Individual precipitation events were also sampled to track percolation throughout the snowpack and temperature correlations. A survey of this extent has never been undertaken on the JI. Samples were analyzed in the field using a Los Gatos laser isotope analyzer. This survey helps us better understand isotope fractionation on temperate glaciers in coastal environments and provides preliminary information on the suitability of the JI for a future ice core drilling project.

Two Independent Contributions to Step Variability during Over-Ground Human Walking

PubMed Central

Collins, Steven H.; Kuo, Arthur D.

2013-01-01

Human walking exhibits small variations in both step length and step width, some of which may be related to active balance control. Lateral balance is thought to require integrative sensorimotor control through adjustment of step width rather than length, contributing to greater variability in step width. Here we propose that step length variations are largely explained by the typical human preference for step length to increase with walking speed, which itself normally exhibits some slow and spontaneous fluctuation. In contrast, step width variations should have little relation to speed if they are produced more for lateral balance. As a test, we examined hundreds of overground walking steps by healthy young adults (N = 14, age < 40 yrs.). We found that slow fluctuations in self-selected walking speed (2.3% coefficient of variation) could explain most of the variance in step length (59%, P < 0.01). The residual variability not explained by speed was small (1.5% coefficient of variation), suggesting that step length is actually quite precise if not for the slow speed fluctuations. Step width varied over faster time scales and was independent of speed fluctuations, with variance 4.3 times greater than that for step length (P < 0.01) after accounting for the speed effect. That difference was further magnified by walking with eyes closed, which appears detrimental to control of lateral balance. Humans appear to modulate fore-aft foot placement in precise accordance with slow fluctuations in walking speed, whereas the variability of lateral foot placement appears more closely related to balance. Step variability is separable in both direction and time scale into balance- and speed-related components. The separation of factors not related to balance may reveal which aspects of walking are most critical for the nervous system to control. PMID:24015308

Sound production due to large-scale coherent structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, T. B.

1979-01-01

The acoustic pressure fluctuations due to large-scale finite amplitude disturbances in a free turbulent shear flow are calculated. The flow is decomposed into three component scales; the mean motion, the large-scale wave-like disturbance, and the small-scale random turbulence. The effect of the large-scale structure on the flow is isolated by applying both a spatial and phase average on the governing differential equations and by initially taking the small-scale turbulence to be in energetic equilibrium with the mean flow. The subsequent temporal evolution of the flow is computed from global energetic rate equations for the different component scales. Lighthill's theory is then applied to the region with the flowfield as the source and an observer located outside the flowfield in a region of uniform velocity. Since the time history of all flow variables is known, a minimum of simplifying assumptions for the Lighthill stress tensor is required, including no far-field approximations. A phase average is used to isolate the pressure fluctuations due to the large-scale structure, and also to isolate the dynamic process responsible. Variation of mean square pressure with distance from the source is computed to determine the acoustic far-field location and decay rate, and, in addition, spectra at various acoustic field locations are computed and analyzed. Also included are the effects of varying the growth and decay of the large-scale disturbance on the sound produced.

Spatial and seasonal dynamics of brook trout populations inhabiting a central Appalachian watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petty, J.T.; Lamothe, P.J.; Mazik, P.M.

2005-01-01

We quantified the watershed-scale spatial population dynamics of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the Second Fork, a third-order tributary of Shavers Fork in eastern West Virginia. We used visual surveys, electrofishing, and mark-recapture techniques to quantify brook trout spawning intensity, population density, size structure, and demographic rates (apparent survival and immigration) throughout the watershed. Our analyses produced the following results. Spawning by brook trout was concentrated in streams with small basin areas (i.e., segments draining less than 3 km2), relatively high alkalinity (>10 mg CaCO3/L), and high amounts of instream cover. The spatial distribution of juvenile and small-adult brook trout within the watershed was relatively stable and was significantly correlated with spawning intensity. However, no such relationship was observed for large adults, which exhibited highly variable distribution patterns related to seasonally important habitat features, including instream cover, stream depth and width, and riparian canopy cover. Brook trout survival and immigration rates varied seasonally, spatially, and among size-classes. Differential survival and immigration tended to concentrate juveniles and small adults in small, alkaline streams, whereas dispersal tended to redistribute large adults at the watershed scale. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in spawning, survival, and movement interact to determine the distribution, abundance, and size structure of brook trout populations at a watershed scale. These results underscore the importance of small tributaries for the persistence of brook trout in this watershed and the need to consider watershed-scale processes when designing management plans for Appalachian brook trout populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Combining eddy-covariance and chamber measurements to determine the methane budget from a small, heterogeneous urban floodplain wetland park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morin, T. H.; Bohrer, G.; Stefanik, K. C.

Methane (CH 4) emissions and carbon uptake in temperate freshwater wetlands act in opposing directions in the context of global radiative forcing. Large uncertainties exist for the rates of CH 4 emissions making it difficult to determine the extent that CH 4 emissions counteract the carbon sequestration of wetlands. Urban temperate wetlands are typically small and feature highly heterogeneous land cover, posing an additional challenge to determining their CH 4 budget. The data analysis approach we introduce here combines two different CH 4 flux measurement techniques to overcome scale and heterogeneity problems and determine the overall CH 4 budget ofmore » a small, heterogeneous, urban wetland landscape. Temporally intermittent point measurements from non-steady-state chambers provided information about patch-level heterogeneity of fluxes, while continuous, high temporal resolution flux measurements using the eddy-covariance (EC) technique provided information about the temporal dynamics of the fluxes. Patch-level scaling parameterization was developed from the chamber data to scale eddy covariance data to a ‘fixed-frame’, which corrects for variability in the spatial coverage of the eddy covariance observation footprint at any single point in time. Finally, by combining two measurement techniques at different scales, we addressed shortcomings of both techniques with respect to heterogeneous wetland sites.« less

Combining eddy-covariance and chamber measurements to determine the methane budget from a small, heterogeneous urban floodplain wetland park

DOE PAGES

Morin, T. H.; Bohrer, G.; Stefanik, K. C.; ...

2017-02-17

Methane (CH 4) emissions and carbon uptake in temperate freshwater wetlands act in opposing directions in the context of global radiative forcing. Large uncertainties exist for the rates of CH 4 emissions making it difficult to determine the extent that CH 4 emissions counteract the carbon sequestration of wetlands. Urban temperate wetlands are typically small and feature highly heterogeneous land cover, posing an additional challenge to determining their CH 4 budget. The data analysis approach we introduce here combines two different CH 4 flux measurement techniques to overcome scale and heterogeneity problems and determine the overall CH 4 budget ofmore » a small, heterogeneous, urban wetland landscape. Temporally intermittent point measurements from non-steady-state chambers provided information about patch-level heterogeneity of fluxes, while continuous, high temporal resolution flux measurements using the eddy-covariance (EC) technique provided information about the temporal dynamics of the fluxes. Patch-level scaling parameterization was developed from the chamber data to scale eddy covariance data to a ‘fixed-frame’, which corrects for variability in the spatial coverage of the eddy covariance observation footprint at any single point in time. Finally, by combining two measurement techniques at different scales, we addressed shortcomings of both techniques with respect to heterogeneous wetland sites.« less

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozendaal, Margaret A.; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Estimating Catchment-Scale Snowpack Variability in Complex Forested Terrain, Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Swetnam, T.

2011-12-01

Difficulty estimating snowpack variability across complex forested terrain currently hinders the prediction of water resources in the semi-arid Southwestern U.S. Catchment-scale estimates of snowpack variability are necessary for addressing ecological, hydrological, and water resources issues, but are often interpolated from a small number of point-scale observations. In this study, we used LiDAR-derived distributed datasets to investigate how elevation, aspect, topography, and vegetation interact to control catchment-scale snowpack variability. The study area is the Redondo massif in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM, a resurgent dome that varies from 2500 to 3430 m and drains from all aspects. Mean LiDAR-derived snow depths from four catchments (2.2 to 3.4 km^2) draining different aspects of the Redondo massif varied by 30%, despite similar mean elevations and mixed conifer forest cover. To better quantify this variability in snow depths we performed a multiple linear regression (MLR) at a 7.3 by 7.3 km study area (5 x 106 snow depth measurements) comprising the four catchments. The MLR showed that elevation explained 45% of the variability in snow depths across the study area, aspect explained 18% (dominated by N-S aspect), and vegetation 2% (canopy density and height). This linear relationship was not transferable to the catchment-scale however, where additional MLR analyses showed the influence of aspect and elevation differed between the catchments. The strong influence of North-South aspect in most catchments indicated that the solar radiation is an important control on snow depth variability. To explore the role of solar radiation, a model was used to generate winter solar forcing index (SFI) values based on the local and remote topography. The SFI was able to explain a large amount of snow depth variability in areas with similar elevation and aspect. Finally, the SFI was modified to include the effects of shading from vegetation (in and out of canopy), which further explained snow depth variability. The importance of SFI for explaining catchment-scale snow depth variability demonstrates that aspect is not a sufficient metric for direct radiation in complex terrain where slope and remote topographic shading are significant. Surprisingly, the net effects of interception and shading by vegetation on snow depths were minimal compared to elevation and aspect in these catchments. These results suggest that snowpack losses from interception may be balanced by increased shading to reduce the overall impacts from vegetation compared to topographic factors in this high radiation environment. Our analysis indicated that elevation and solar radiation are likely to control snow variability in larger catchments, with interception and shading from vegetation becoming more important at smaller scales.

Do GCM's Predict the Climate.... Or the Low Frequency Weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Varon, D.; Schertzer, D. J.

2011-12-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500- 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT ≈ ΔtH the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale. At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) they change sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is that of the usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, again H>0, the variability again increases with scale. This is the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, "climate states", as fluctuations at scale τc and "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods >τc). We show that the intermediate regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched, only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by weather cascade models, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM's (including IPSL and ECHAM GCM's). In order for GCM's to go beyond simply predicting this low frequency weather so as to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. We examine this using wavelet analyses of forced and unforced GCM outputs, including the ECHO-G simulation used in the Millenium project. For example, we find that climate scenarios with large CO2 increases do give rise to a climate regime but that Hc>1 i.e. much larger than that of natural variability which for temperatures has Hc≈0.4. In comparison, the (largely volcanic) forcing of the ECHO-G Millenium simulation is fairly realistic (Hc≈0.4), although it is not clear that this mechanism can explain the even lower frequency variability found in the paleotemperature series, nor is it clear that this is compatible with low frequency solar or orbital forcings.

Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity: Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Mullon, Christian

2010-04-01

The world's small pelagic fish populations, their fisheries, fishmeal and fish oil production industries and markets are part of a globalised production and consumption system. The potential for climate variability and change to alter the balance in this system is explored by means of bioeconomic models at two different temporal scales, with the objective of investigating the interactive nature of environmental and human-induced changes on this globalised system. Short-term (interannual) environmental impacts on fishmeal production are considered by including an annual variable production rate on individual small pelagic fish stocks over a 10-year simulation period. These impacts on the resources are perceived by the fishmeal markets, where they are confronted by two aquaculture expansion hypotheses. Long-term (2080) environmental impacts on the same stocks are estimated using long-term primary production predictions as proxies for the species' carrying capacities, rather than using variable production rates, and are confronted on the market side by two alternative fishmeal management scenarios consistent with IPCC-type storylines. The two scenarios, World Markets and Global Commons, are parameterized through classic equilibrium solutions for a global surplus production bioeconomic model, namely maximum sustainable yield and open access, respectively. The fisheries explicitly modelled in this paper represent 70% of total fishmeal production, thus encapsulating the expected dynamics of the global production and consumption system. Both short and long-term simulations suggest that the sustainability of the small pelagic resources, in the face of climate variability and change, depends more on how society responds to climate impacts than on the magnitude of climate alterations per se.

Modeling circulation patterns induced by spatial cross-shore wind variability in a small-size coastal embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerralbo, Pablo; Espino, Manuel; Grifoll, Manel

2016-08-01

This contribution shows the importance of the cross-shore spatial wind variability in the water circulation in a small-sized micro-tidal bay. The hydrodynamic wind response at Alfacs Bay (Ebro River delta, NW Mediterranean Sea) is investigated with a numerical model (ROMS) supported by in situ observations. The wind variability observed in meteorological measurements is characterized with meteorological model (WRF) outputs. From the hydrodynamic simulations of the bay, the water circulation response is affected by the cross-shore wind variability, leading to water current structures not observed in the homogeneous-wind case. If the wind heterogeneity response is considered, the water exchange in the longitudinal direction increases significantly, reducing the water exchange time by around 20%. Wind resolutions half the size of the bay (in our case around 9 km) inhibit cross-shore wind variability, which significantly affects the resultant circulation pattern. The characteristic response is also investigated using idealized test cases. These results show how the wind curl contributes to the hydrodynamic response in shallow areas and promotes the exchange between the bay and the open sea. Negative wind curl is related to the formation of an anti-cyclonic gyre at the bay's mouth. Our results highlight the importance of considering appropriate wind resolution even in small-scale domains (such as bays or harbors) to characterize the hydrodynamics, with relevant implications in the water exchange time and the consequent water quality and ecological parameters.

Role of physical heterogeneity in the interpretation of small-scale laboratory and field observations of bacteria, microbial-sized microsphere, and bromide transport through aquifer sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Ronald W.; Kinner, Nancy E.; MacDonald, Dan; Metge, David W.; Bunn, Amoret

1993-01-01

The effect of physical variability upon the relative transport behavior of microbial-sized microspheres, indigenous bacteria, and bromide was examined in field and flow-through column studies for a layered, but relatively well sorted, sandy glaciofluvial aquifer. These investigations involved repacked, sieved, and undisturbed aquifer sediments. In the field, peak abundance of labeled bacteria traveling laterally with groundwater flow 6 m downgradient from point of injection was coincident with the retarded peak of carboxylated microspheres (retardation factor, RF = 1.7) at the 8.8 m depth, but preceded the bromide peak and the retarded microsphere peak (RF = 1.5) at the 9.0 m depth. At the 9.5 m depth, the bacterial peak was coincident with both the bromide and the microsphere peaks. Although sorption appeared to be a predominant mechanism responsible for immobilization of microbial-sized microspheres in the aquifer, straining appeared to be primarily responsible for their removal in 0.6-m-long columns of repacked, unsieved aquifer sediments. The manner in which the columns were packed also affected optimal size for microsphere transport, which in one experiment was near the size of the small (∼2 μm) groundwater protozoa (flagellates). These data suggest that variability in aquifer sediment structure can be important in interpretation of both small-scale field and laboratory experiments examining microbial transport behavior.

High resolution modelling of soil moisture patterns with TerrSysMP: A comparison with sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebler, S.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Kollet, S. J.; Qu, W.; Vereecken, H.

2017-04-01

The prediction of the spatial and temporal variability of land surface states and fluxes with land surface models at high spatial resolution is still a challenge. This study compares simulation results using TerrSysMP including a 3D variably saturated groundwater flow model (ParFlow) coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM) of a 38 ha managed grassland head-water catchment in the Eifel (Germany), with soil water content (SWC) measurements from a wireless sensor network, actual evapotranspiration recorded by lysimeters and eddy covariance stations and discharge observations. TerrSysMP was discretized with a 10 × 10 m lateral resolution, variable vertical resolution (0.025-0.575 m), and the following parameterization strategies of the subsurface soil hydraulic parameters: (i) completely homogeneous, (ii) homogeneous parameters for different soil horizons, (iii) different parameters for each soil unit and soil horizon and (iv) heterogeneous stochastic realizations. Hydraulic conductivity and Mualem-Van Genuchten parameters in these simulations were sampled from probability density functions, constructed from either (i) soil texture measurements and Rosetta pedotransfer functions (ROS), or (ii) estimated soil hydraulic parameters by 1D inverse modelling using shuffle complex evolution (SCE). The results indicate that the spatial variability of SWC at the scale of a small headwater catchment is dominated by topography and spatially heterogeneous soil hydraulic parameters. The spatial variability of the soil water content thereby increases as a function of heterogeneity of soil hydraulic parameters. For lower levels of complexity, spatial variability of the SWC was underrepresented in particular for the ROS-simulations. Whereas all model simulations were able to reproduce the seasonal evapotranspiration variability, the poor discharge simulations with high model bias are likely related to short-term ET dynamics and the lack of information about bedrock characteristics and an on-site drainage system in the uncalibrated model. In general, simulation performance was better for the SCE setups. The SCE-simulations had a higher inverse air entry parameter resulting in SWC dynamics in better correspondence with data than the ROS simulations during dry periods. This illustrates that small scale measurements of soil hydraulic parameters cannot be transferred to the larger scale and that interpolated 1D inverse parameter estimates result in an acceptable performance for the catchment.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Sediment-porewater partitioning, total sulfur, and methylmercury production in estuaries.

PubMed

Schartup, Amina T; Balcom, Prentiss H; Mason, Robert P

2014-01-21

Mercury (Hg) speciation and the activity of Hg(II)-methylating bacteria are responsible for the rate of methylmercury production and thus bioaccumulation in marine foodwebs. Factors affecting porewater partitioning (Kd) and methylation of Hg(II) were examined at 11 sites in sediment of 4 biogeochemically diverse estuaries in the Northeast U.S. In Long Island Sound, 88% of total mercury (HgT) log Kd variability was described by porewater dissolved organic carbon concentration and sediment total sulfur (S) content. Whereas across all estuaries, regression analyses showed that S alone drives about 70% of Kd variability and 50% of changes in methylation rates; and the inclusion of DOC and sulfides did not improve the prediction. Thus, we demonstrated that S is a better predictor of HgT log Kd than the sediment organic matter across multiple estuaries, and while organic matter and S are interchangeable in small-scale studies, on a larger scale, sediment S content is the simplest and most effective variable to measure.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Millimeter-scale MEMS enabled autonomous systems: system feasibility and mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulskamp, Jeffrey S.

2012-06-01

Millimeter-scale robotic systems based on highly integrated microelectronics and micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) could offer unique benefits and attributes for small-scale autonomous systems. This extreme scale for robotics will naturally constrain the realizable system capabilities significantly. This paper assesses the feasibility of developing such systems by defining the fundamental design trade spaces between component design variables and system level performance parameters. This permits the development of mobility enabling component technologies within a system relevant context. Feasible ranges of system mass, required aerodynamic power, available battery power, load supported power, flight endurance, and required leg load bearing capability are presented for millimeter-scale platforms. The analysis illustrates the feasibility of developing both flight capable and ground mobile millimeter-scale autonomous systems while highlighting the significant challenges that must be overcome to realize their potential.

Characterizing Variability in Long Period Horizontal Tilt Noise Through Coherence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohde, M. D.; Ringler, A. T.; Hutt, C. R.; Wilson, D.; Holland, A. A.

2016-12-01

Tilt induced horizontal noise fundamentally limits a wide variety of seismological studies. This noise source is not well characterized or understood and the spatial variability has yet to be well constrained. Long-period (i.e., greater than 100 seconds period) horizontal seismic noise is generally known to be of greater magnitude than long-period vertical seismic noise due to tilt noise. As a result, many studies only make use of the vertical seismic wavefield as opposed to all three axes. The main source of long-period horizontal seismic noise is hypothesized to be tilt due to atmospheric pressure variation. Reducing horizontal tilt noise could lead to improved resolution of torsional earth modes and other long-period horizontal seismic signals that are often dominated by tilt noise, as well as better construction of seismic isolation systems for sensitive scientific experiments. We looked at a number of small aperture array configurations. For each array we installed eight Streckeisen STS-2 broadband seismometers in the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) underground vault. The data from these array configurations was used to characterize the long period horizontal tilt noise over a spatially small scale. Sensors were installed approximately 1 to 10 meters apart depending on the array configuration. Coherence as a function of frequency was calculated between sensors, of which we examine the frequency band between 10 and 500 seconds. We observed complexity in the pair-wise coherence with respect to frequency, seismometer axis, and time, even for spatially close sensors. We present some possible explanations for the large variability in our coherence observations and demonstrate how these results can be applied to find potentially low horizontal noise locations over small spatial scales, such as in stations with multiple co-located sensors within the Global Seismographic Network.

Implicit theories about interrelations of anger components in 25 countries.

PubMed

Alonso-Arbiol, Itziar; van de Vijver, Fons J R; Fernandez, Itziar; Paez, Dario; Campos, Miryam; Carrera, Pilar

2011-02-01

We were interested in the cross-cultural comparison of implicit theories of the interrelations of eight anger components (antecedents, body sensations, cognitive reactions, verbal expressions, nonverbal expressions, interpersonal responses, and primary and secondary self-control). Self-report scales of each of these components were administered to a total of 5,006 college students in 25 countries. Equivalence of the scales was supported in that scales showed acceptable congruence coefficients in almost all comparisons. A multigroup confirmatory factor model with three latent variables (labeled internal processes, behavioral outcomes, and self-control mechanisms) could well account for the interrelations of the eight observed variables; measurement and structural weights were invariant. Behavioral outcomes and self-control mechanisms were only associated through their common dependence on internal processes. Verbal expressions and cognitive reactions showed the largest cross-cultural differences in means, whereas self-control mechanisms scales showed the smallest differences. Yet, cultural differences between the countries were small. It is concluded that anger, as measured by these scales, shows more pronounced cross-cultural similarities than differences in terms of both interrelations and mean score levels. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Are ecosystem services stabilized by differences among species? A test using crop pollination.

PubMed

Winfree, Rachael; Kremen, Claire

2009-01-22

Biological diversity could enhance ecosystem service provision by increasing the mean level of services provided, and/or by providing more consistent (stable) services over space and time. Ecological theory predicts that when an ecosystem service is provided by many species, it will be stabilized against disturbance by a variety of 'stabilizing mechanisms.' However, few studies have investigated whether stabilizing mechanisms occur in real landscapes affected by human disturbance. We used two datasets on crop pollination by wild native bees to screen for and differentiate among three stabilizing mechanisms: density compensation (negative co-variance among species' abundances); response diversity (differential response to environmental variables among species); and cross-scale resilience (response to the same environmental variable at different scales by different species). In both datasets, we found response diversity and cross-scale resilience, but not density compensation. We conclude that stabilizing mechanisms may contribute to the stability of pollination services in our study areas, emphasizing the insurance value of seemingly 'redundant' species. Furthermore, the absence of density compensation that we found at the landscape scale contrasts with findings of previous small-scale experimental and modelling work, suggesting that we should not assume that density compensation will stabilize ecosystem services in real landscapes.

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Environmental forcing on jellyfish communities in a small temperate estuary.

PubMed

Primo, Ana Lígia; Marques, Sónia C; Falcão, Joana; Crespo, Daniel; Pardal, Miguel A; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M

2012-08-01

The impact of biological, hydrodynamic and large scale climatic variables on the jellyfish community of Mondego estuary was evaluated from 2003 to 2010. Plankton samples were collected at the downstream part of the estuary. Siphonophora Muggiaea atlantica and Diphyes spp. were the main jellyfish species. Jellyfish density was generally higher in summer and since 2005 densities had increased. Summer community analysis pointed out Acartia clausi, estuarine temperature and salinity as the main driven forces for the assemblage's structure. Also, Chl a, estuarine salinity, runoff and SST were identified as the major environmental factors influencing the siphonophores summer interannual variability. Temperature influenced directly and indirectly the community and fluctuation of jellyfish blooms in the Mondego estuary. This study represents a contribution to a better knowledge of the gelatinous plankton communities in small temperate estuaries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Micro-Scale Secondary Flow Control for the Management of High Cycle Fatigue and Distortion in Compact Inlet Diffusers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Bernhard H.; Keller, Dennis J.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study on micro-scale secondary flow control (MSFC) is to study the aerodynamic behavior of micro-vane effectors through their factor (i.e., the design variable) interactions and to demonstrate how these statistical interactions, when brought together in an optimal manner, determine design robustness. The term micro-scale indicates the vane effectors are small in comparison to the local boundary layer height. Robustness in this situation means that it is possible to design fixed MSFC robust installation (i.e.. open loop) which operates well over the range of mission variables and is only marginally different from adaptive (i.e., closed loop) installation design, which would require a control system. The inherent robustness of MSFC micro-vane effector installation designs comes about because of their natural aerodynamic characteristics and the manner in which these characteristics are brought together in an optimal manner through a structured Response Surface Methodology design process.

Hamiltonian and Thermodynamic Modeling of Quantum Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grmela, Miroslav

2010-10-01

The state variables in the novel model introduced in this paper are the fields playing this role in the classical Landau-Tisza model and additional fields of mass, entropy (or temperature), superfluid velocity, and gradient of the superfluid velocity, all depending on the position vector and another tree dimensional vector labeling the scale, describing the small-scale structure developed in 4He superfluid experiencing turbulent motion. The fluxes of mass, momentum, energy, and entropy in the position space as well as the fluxes of energy and entropy in scales, appear in the time evolution equations as explicit functions of the state variables and of their conjugates. The fundamental thermodynamic relation relating the fields to their conjugates is left in this paper undetermined. The GENERIC structure of the equations serves two purposes: (i) it guarantees that solutions to the governing equations, independently of the choice of the fundamental thermodynamic relation, agree with the observed compatibility with thermodynamics, and (ii) it is used as a guide in the construction of the novel model.

Minimizing irrigation water demand: An evaluation of shifting planting dates in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Rivera, Ashley; Gunda, Thushara; Hornberger, George M

2018-05-01

Climate change coupled with increasing demands for water necessitates an improved understanding of the water-food nexus at a scale local enough to inform farmer adaptations. Such assessments are particularly important for nations with significant small-scale farming and high spatial variability in climate, such as Sri Lanka. By comparing historical patterns of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) to rice planting records, we estimate that shifting rice planting dates to earlier in the season could yield water savings of up to 6%. Our findings demonstrate the potential of low-cost adaptation strategies to help meet crop production demands in water-scarce environments. This local-scale assessment of IWRs in Sri Lanka highlights the value of using historical data to inform agricultural management of water resources when high-skilled forecasts are not available. Given national policies prioritizing in-country production and farmers' sensitivities to water stress, decision-makers should consider local degrees of climate variability in institutional design of irrigation management structures.

A comparative analysis of rawinsonde and NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellite profile data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Carle, W. E.; Knight, K.; Moyer, V.; Cheng, N. M.

1981-01-01

Comparisons are made between rawinsonde and satellite profiles in seven areas for a wide range of surface and weather conditions. Variables considered include temperature, dewpoint temperature, thickness, precipitable water, lapse rate of temperature, stability, geopotential height, mixing ratio, wind direction, wind speed, and kinematic parameters, including vorticity and the advection of vorticity and temperature. In addition, comparisons are made in the form of cross sections and synoptic fields for selected variables. Sounding data from the NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellites were used. Geostrophic wind computed from smoothed geopotential heights provided large scale flow patterns that agreed well with the rawinsonde wind fields. Surface wind patterns as well as magnitudes computed by use of the log law to extrapolate wind to a height of 10 m agreed with observations. Results of this study demonstrate rather conclusively that satellite profile data can be used to determine characteristics of large scale systems but that small scale features, such as frontal zones, cannot yet be resolved.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Pacific Oyster Hemolymph Microbiota across Multiple Scales

PubMed Central

Lokmer, Ana; Goedknegt, M. Anouk; Thieltges, David W.; Fiorentino, Dario; Kuenzel, Sven; Baines, John F.; Wegner, K. Mathias

2016-01-01

Unveiling the factors and processes that shape the dynamics of host associated microbial communities (microbiota) under natural conditions is an important part of understanding and predicting an organism's response to a changing environment. The microbiota is shaped by host (i.e., genetic) factors as well as by the biotic and abiotic environment. Studying natural variation of microbial community composition in multiple host genetic backgrounds across spatial as well as temporal scales represents a means to untangle this complex interplay. Here, we combined a spatially-stratified with a longitudinal sampling scheme within differentiated host genetic backgrounds by reciprocally transplanting Pacific oysters between two sites in the Wadden Sea (Sylt and Texel). To further differentiate contingent site from host genetic effects, we repeatedly sampled the same individuals over a summer season to examine structure, diversity and dynamics of individual hemolymph microbiota following experimental removal of resident microbiota by antibiotic treatment. While a large proportion of microbiome variation could be attributed to immediate environmental conditions, we observed persistent effects of antibiotic treatment and translocation suggesting that hemolymph microbial community dynamics is subject to within-microbiome interactions and host population specific factors. In addition, the analysis of spatial variation revealed that the within-site microenvironmental heterogeneity resulted in high small-scale variability, as opposed to large-scale (between-site) stability. Similarly, considerable within-individual temporal variability was in contrast with the overall temporal stability at the site level. Overall, our longitudinal, spatially-stratified sampling design revealed that variation in hemolymph microbiota is strongly influenced by site and immediate environmental conditions, whereas internal microbiome dynamics and oyster-related factors add to their long-term stability. The combination of small and large scale resolution of spatial and temporal observations therefore represents a crucial but underused tool to study host-associated microbiome dynamics. PMID:27630625

On the upscaling of process-based models in deltaic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Storms, J. E. A.; Walstra, D. J. R.

2018-03-01

Process-based numerical models are increasingly used to study the evolution of marine and terrestrial depositional environments. Whilst a detailed description of small-scale processes provides an accurate representation of reality, application on geological timescales is restrained by the associated increase in computational time. In order to reduce the computational time, a number of acceleration methods are combined and evaluated for a schematic supply-driven delta (static base level) and an accommodation-driven delta (variable base level). The performance of the combined acceleration methods is evaluated by comparing the morphological indicators such as distributary channel networking and delta volumes derived from the model predictions for various levels of acceleration. The results of the accelerated models are compared to the outcomes from a series of simulations to capture autogenic variability. Autogenic variability is quantified by re-running identical models on an initial bathymetry with 1 cm added noise. The overall results show that the variability of the accelerated models fall within the autogenic variability range, suggesting that the application of acceleration methods does not significantly affect the simulated delta evolution. The Time-scale compression method (the acceleration method introduced in this paper) results in an increased computational efficiency of 75% without adversely affecting the simulated delta evolution compared to a base case. The combination of the Time-scale compression method with the existing acceleration methods has the potential to extend the application range of process-based models towards geologic timescales.

Extending acoustic data measured with small-scale supersonic model jets to practical aircraft exhaust jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Ching-Wen

2010-06-01

Modern military aircraft jet engines are designed with variable geometry nozzles to provide optimum thrust in different operating conditions within the flight envelope. However, the acoustic measurements for such nozzles are scarce, due to the cost involved in making full-scale measurements and the lack of details about the exact geometry of these nozzles. Thus the present effort at The Pennsylvania State University and the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with GE Aviation, is aiming to study and characterize the acoustic field produced by supersonic jets issuing from converging-diverging military style nozzles. An equally important objective is to develop a scaling methodology for using data obtained from small- and moderate-scale experiments which exhibits the independence of the jet sizes to the measured noise levels. The experimental results presented in this thesis have shown reasonable agreement between small-scale and moderate-scale jet acoustic data, as well as between heated jets and heat-simulated ones. As the scaling methodology is validated, it will be extended to using acoustic data measured with small-scale supersonic model jets to the prediction of the most important components of full-scale engine noise. When comparing the measured acoustic spectra with a microphone array set at different radial locations, the characteristics of the jet noise source distribution may induce subtle inaccuracies, depending on the conditions of jet operation. A close look is taken at the details of the noise generation region in order to better understand the mismatch between spectra measured at various acoustic field radial locations. A processing methodology was developed to correct the effect of the noise source distribution and efficiently compare near-field and far-field spectra with unprecedented accuracy. This technique then demonstrates that the measured noise levels in the physically restricted space of an anechoic chamber can be appropriately extrapolated to represent the expected noise levels at different noise monitoring locations of practical interest. With the emergence of more powerful fighter aircraft, supersonic jet noise reduction devices are being intensely researched. Small-scale measurements are a crucial step in evaluating the potential of noise reduction concepts at an early stage in the design process. With this in mind, the present thesis provides an acoustic assessment methodology for small-scale military-style nozzles with chevrons. Comparisons are made between the present measurements and those made by NASA at moderate-scale. The effect of chevrons on supersonic jets was investigated, highlighting the crucial role of the jet operating conditions on the effects of chevrons on the jet flow and the subsequent acoustic benefits. A small-scale heat simulated jet is investigated in the over-expanded condition and shows no substantial noise reduction from the chevrons. This is contrary to moderate-scale measurements. The discrepancy is attributed to a Reynolds number low enough to sustain an annular laminar boundary layer in the nozzle that separates in the over-expanded flow condition. These results are important in assessing the limitations of small-scale measurements in this particular jet noise reduction method. Lastly, to successfully present the results from the acoustic measurements of small-scale jets with high quality, a newly developed PSU free-field response was empirically derived to match the specific orientation and grid cap geometry of the microphones. Application to measured data gives encouraging results validating the capability of the method to produce superior accuracy in measurements even at the highest response frequencies of the microphones.

Variability of Quality of Life at Small Scales: Addis Ababa, Kirkos Sub-City

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tesfazghi, Elsa Sereke; Martinez, J. A.; Verplanke, J. J.

2010-01-01

Urban quality of life (QoL) is becoming a subject of urban research mainly for western and Asian countries. Such attention is due to an increasing awareness of the contribution of QoL studies in identifying intervention areas and in monitoring urban planning policies. However, most studies are carried out at city or country level that can average…

Observational and Numerical Studies of the Boundary Layer, Cloud, and Aerosol Variability in the Southeast Pacific Coastal Marine Stratocumulus

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

Malinowski , J.-L., Brenguier and F. Burnet, 2005: Holes and entrainment in stratocumulus, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 443-459. Ghate, V. P., B. A...Tennessee. Haman, K. E., S. P. Malinowski , M. J. Kurowski, H. Gerber, and J.-L. Brenguier, 2007: Small scale mixing processes at the top of a marine

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Characterization of the spatial distribution of porosity in the eogenetic karst Miami Limestone using ground penetrating radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mount, G. J.; Comas, X.; Wright, W. J.; McClellan, M. D.

2014-12-01

Hydrogeologic characterization of karst limestone aquifers is difficult due to the variability in the spatial distribution of porosity and dissolution features. Typical methods for aquifer investigation, such as drilling and pump testing, are limited by the scale or spatial extent of the measurement. Hydrogeophysical techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR) can provide indirect measurements of aquifer properties and be expanded spatially beyond typical point measures. This investigation used a multiscale approach to identify and quantify porosity distribution in the Miami Limestone, the lithostratigraphic unit that composes the uppermost portions of the Biscayne Aquifer in Miami Dade County, Florida. At the meter scale, laboratory measures of porosity and dielectric permittivity were made on blocks of Miami Limestone using zero offset GPR, laboratory and digital image techniques. Results show good correspondence between GPR and analytical porosity estimates and show variability between 22 and 66 %. GPR measurements at the field scale 10-1000 m investigated the bulk porosity of the limestone based on the assumption that a directly measured water table would remain at a consistent depth in the GPR reflection record. Porosity variability determined from the changes in the depth to water table resulted in porosity values that ranged from 33 to 61 %, with the greatest porosity variability being attributed to the presence of dissolution features. At the larger field scales, 100 - 1000 m, fitting of hyperbolic diffractions in GPR common offsets determined the vertical and horizontal variability of porosity in the saturated subsurface. Results indicate that porosity can vary between 23 and 41 %, and delineate potential areas of enhanced recharge or groundwater / surface water interactions. This study shows porosity variability in the Miami Limestone can range from 22 to 66 % within 1.5 m distances, with areas of high macroporosity or karst dissolution features occupying the higher end of the range. Spatial variability in porosity distribution may affect ground water recharge, allowing zones of high porosity and thus enhanced infiltration to concentrate contaminants into the aquifer and may play a role in small and regional scale aquifer models.

The NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model-1995 version (GRAM-95)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Yung, S. P.; Johnson, D. L.

1995-01-01

The latest version of the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-95) is presented and discussed. GRAM-95 uses the new Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) CD-ROM data set, for 0- to 27-km altitudes. As with earlier versions, GRAM-95 provides complete geographical and altitude coverage for each month of the year. Individual years 1985 to 1991 and a period-of-record (1980 to 1991) can be simulated for the GUACA height range. GRAM-95 uses a specially developed data set, based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) data, for the 20- to 120-km height range, and the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model for heights above 90 km. Fairing techniques assure a smooth transition in the overlap height ranges (20 to 27 km and 90 to 120 km). In addition to the traditional GRAM variables of pressure, density, temperature and wind components, GRAM-95 now includes water vapor and 11 other atmospheric constituents (O3, N2O, CO, CH4, CO2, N2, O2, O, A, He, and H). A new, variable-scale perturbation model provides both large-scale and small-scale deviations from mean values for the thermodynamic variables and horizontal and vertical wind components. The perturbation model includes new features that simulate intermittency (patchiness) in turbulence and small-scale perturbation fields. The density perturbations and density gradients (density shears) computed by the new model compare favorably in their statistical characteristics with observed density perturbations and density shears from 32 space shuttle reentry profiles. GRAM-95 provides considerable improvement in wind estimates from the new GUACA data set, compared to winds calculated from the geostrophic wind relations previously used in the 0- to 25-km height range. The GRAM-95 code has been put into a more modular form, easier to incorporate as subroutines in other programs (e.g., trajectory codes). A complete user's guide for running the program, plus sample input and output, is provided.

Multi-platform validation of a high-resolution model in the Western Mediterranean Sea: insight into spatial-temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Eva; Mourre, Baptiste; Heslop, Emma; Juza, Mélanie; Escudier, Romain; Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the validation of the high resolution Western Mediterranean Operational model (WMOP) developed at SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System. The Mediterranean Sea is often seen as a small scale ocean laboratory where energetic eddies, fronts and circulation features have important ecological consequences. The Medclic project is a program between "La Caixa" Foundation and SOCIB which aims at characterizing and forecasting the "oceanic weather" in the Western Mediterranean Sea, specifically investigating the interactions between the general circulation and mesoscale processes. We use a WMOP 2009-2015 free run hindcast simulation and available observational datasets (altimetry, moorings and gliders) to both assess the numerical simulation and investigate the ocean variability. WMOP has a 2-km spatial resolution and uses CMEMS Mediterranean products as initial and boundary conditions, with surface forcing from the high-resolution Spanish Meteorological Agency model HIRLAM. Different aspects of the spatial and temporal variability in the model are validated from local to regional and basin scales: (1) the principal axis of variability of the surface circulation using altimetry and moorings along the Iberian coast, (2) the inter-annual changes of the surface flows incorporating also glider data, (3) the propagation of mesoscale eddies formed in the Algerian sub-basin using altimetry, and (4) the statistical properties of eddies (number, rotation, size) applying an eddy tracker detection method in the Western Mediterranean Sea. With these key points evaluated in the model, EOF analysis of sea surface height maps are used to investigate spatial patterns of variability associated with eddies, gyres and the basis-scale circulation and so gain insight into the interconnections between sub-basins, as well as the interactions between physical processes at different scales.

A detailed model for simulation of catchment scale subsurface hydrologic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paniconi, Claudio; Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

A catchment scale numerical model is developed based on the three-dimensional transient Richards equation describing fluid flow in variably saturated porous media. The model is designed to take advantage of digital elevation data bases and of information extracted from these data bases by topographic analysis. The practical application of the model is demonstrated in simulations of a small subcatchment of the Konza Prairie reserve near Manhattan, Kansas. In a preliminary investigation of computational issues related to model resolution, we obtain satisfactory numerical results using large aspect ratios, suggesting that horizontal grid dimensions may not be unreasonably constrained by the typically much smaller vertical length scale of a catchment and by vertical discretization requirements. Additional tests are needed to examine the effects of numerical constraints and parameter heterogeneity in determining acceptable grid aspect ratios. In other simulations we attempt to match the observed streamflow response of the catchment, and we point out the small contribution of the streamflow component to the overall water balance of the catchment.

Applying the Expectancy-Value Model to understand health values.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu-Hao; Xie, Feng; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Thumboo, Julian; Li, Shu-Chuen

2008-03-01

Expectancy-Value Model (EVM) is the most structured model in psychology to predict attitudes by measuring attitudinal attributes (AAs) and relevant external variables. Because health value could be categorized as attitude, we aimed to apply EVM to explore its usefulness in explaining variances in health values and investigate underlying factors. Focus group discussion was carried out to identify the most common and significant AAs toward 5 different health states (coded as 11111, 11121, 21221, 32323, and 33333 in EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) descriptive system). AAs were measured in a sum of multiplications of subjective probability (expectancy) and perceived value of attributes with 7-point Likert scales. Health values were measured using visual analog scales (VAS, range 0-1). External variables (age, sex, ethnicity, education, housing, marital status, and concurrent chronic diseases) were also incorporated into survey questionnaire distributed by convenience sampling among eligible respondents. Univariate analyses were used to identify external variables causing significant differences in VAS. Multiple linear regression model (MLR) and hierarchical regression model were used to investigate the explanatory power of AAs and possible significant external variable(s) separately or in combination, for each individual health state and a mixed scenario of five states, respectively. Four AAs were identified, namely, "worsening your quality of life in terms of health" (WQoL), "adding a burden to your family" (BTF), "making you less independent" (MLI) and "unable to work or study" (UWS). Data were analyzed based on 232 respondents (mean [SD] age: 27.7 [15.07] years, 49.1% female). Health values varied significantly across 5 health states, ranging from 0.12 (33333) to 0.97 (11111). With no significant external variables identified, EVM explained up to 62% of the variances in health values across 5 health states. The explanatory power of 4 AAs were found to be between 13% and 28% in separate MLR models (P < 0.05). When data were analyzed for each health state, variances in health values became small and explanatory power of EVM was reduced to a range between 8% and 23%. EVM was useful in explaining variances of health values and predicting important factors. Its power to explain small variances might be restricted due to limitations of 7-point Likert scale to measure AAs accurately. With further improvement and validation of a compatible continuous scale for more accurate measurement, EVM is expected to explain health values to a larger extent.

Fire history reconstruction in grassland ecosystems: amount of charcoal reflects local area burned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leys, Bérangère; Brewer, Simon C.; McConaghy, Scott; Mueller, Joshua; McLauchlan, Kendra K.

2015-11-01

Fire is one of the most prevalent disturbances in the Earth system, and its past characteristics can be reconstructed using charcoal particles preserved in depositional environments. Although researchers know that fires produce charcoal particles, interpretation of the quantity or composition of charcoal particles in terms of fire source remains poorly understood. In this study, we used a unique four-year dataset of charcoal deposited in traps from a native tallgrass prairie in mid-North America to test which environmental factors were linked to charcoal measurements on three spatial scales. We investigated small and large charcoal particles commonly used as a proxy of fire activity at different spatial scales, and charcoal morphotypes representing different types of fuel. We found that small (125-250 μm) and large (250 μm-1 mm) particles of charcoal are well-correlated (Spearman correlation = 0.88) and likely reflect the same spatial scale of fire activity in a system with both herbaceous and woody fuels. There was no significant relationship between charcoal pieces and fire parameters <500 m from the traps. Moreover, local area burned (<5 km distance radius from traps) explained the total charcoal amount, and regional burning (200 km radius distance from traps) explained the ratio of non arboreal to total charcoal (NA/T ratio). Charcoal variables, including total charcoal count and NA/T ratio, did not correlate with other fire parameters, vegetation cover, landscape, or climate variables. Thus, in long-term studies that involve fire history reconstructions, total charcoal particles, even of a small size (125-250 μm), could be an indicator of local area burned. Further studies may determine relationships among amount of charcoal recorded, fire intensity, vegetation cover, and climatic parameters.

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

Spatial structure and scaling of macropores in hydrological process at small catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silasari, Rasmiaditya; Broer, Martine; Blöschl, Günter

2013-04-01

During rainfall events, the formation of overland flow can occur under the circumstances of saturation excess and/or infiltration excess. These conditions are affected by the soil moisture state which represents the soil water content in micropores and macropores. Macropores act as pathway for the preferential flows and have been widely studied locally. However, very little is known about their spatial structure and conductivity of macropores and other flow characteristic at the catchment scale. This study will analyze these characteristics to better understand its importance in hydrological processes. The research will be conducted in Petzenkirchen Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), a 64 ha catchment located 100 km west of Vienna. The land use is divided between arable land (87%), pasture (5%), forest (6%) and paved surfaces (2%). Video cameras will be installed on an agricultural field to monitor the overland flow pattern during rainfall events. A wireless soil moisture network is also installed within the monitored area. These field data will be combined to analyze the soil moisture state and the responding surface runoff occurrence. The variability of the macropores spatial structure of the observed area (field scale) then will be assessed based on the topography and soil data. Soil characteristics will be supported with laboratory experiments on soil matrix flow to obtain proper definitions of the spatial structure of macropores and its variability. A coupled physically based distributed model of surface and subsurface flow will be used to simulate the variability of macropores spatial structure and its effect on the flow behaviour. This model will be validated by simulating the observed rainfall events. Upscaling from field scale to catchment scale will be done to understand the effect of macropores variability on larger scales by applying spatial stochastic methods. The first phase in this study is the installation and monitoring configuration of video cameras and soil moisture monitoring equipment to obtain the initial data of overland flow occurrence and soil moisture state relationships.

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.; ...

2017-09-14

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Multi-scale controls on spatial variability in river biogeochemical cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaen, Phillip; Kurz, Marie; Knapp, Julia; Mendoza-Lera, Clara; Lee-Cullin, Joe; Klaar, Megan; Drummond, Jennifer; Jaeger, Anna; Zarnetske, Jay; Lewandowski, Joerg; Marti, Eugenia; Ward, Adam; Fleckenstein, Jan; Datry, Thibault; Larned, Scott; Krause, Stefan

2016-04-01

Excessive nutrient concentrations are common in surface waters and groundwaters in agricultural catchments worldwide. Increasing geomorphological heterogeneity in river channels may help to attenuate nutrient pollution by facilitating water exchange fluxes with the hyporheic zone; a site of intense microbial activity where biogeochemical cycling rates can be high. However, the controls on spatial variability in biogeochemical cycling, particularly at scales relevant for river managers, are largely unknown. Here, we aimed to assess: 1) how differences in river geomorphological heterogeneity control solute transport and rates of biogeochemical cycling at sub-reach scales (102 m); and 2) the relative magnitude of these differences versus those relating to reach scale substrate variability (103 m). We used the reactive tracer resazurin (Raz), a weakly fluorescent dye that transforms to highly fluorescent resorufin (Rru) under mildly reducing conditions, as a proxy to assess rates of biogeochemical cycling in a lowland river in southern England. Solute tracer tests were conducted in two reaches with contrasting substrates: one sand-dominated and the other gravel-dominated. Each reach was divided into sub-reaches that varied in geomorphic complexity (e.g. by the presence of pool-riffle sequences or the abundance of large woody debris). Slug injections of Raz and the conservative tracer fluorescein were conducted in each reach during baseflow conditions (Q ≈ 80 L/s) and breakthrough curves monitored using in-situ fluorometers. Preliminary results indicate overall Raz:Rru transformation rates in the gravel-dominated reach were more than 50% higher than those in the sand-dominated reach. However, high sub-reach variability in Raz:Rru transformation rates and conservative solute transport parameters suggests small scale targeted management interventions to alter geomorphic heterogeneity may be effective in creating hotspots of river biogeochemical cycling and nutrient load attenuation.

Species richness and biomass explain spatial turnover in ecosystem functioning across tropical and temperate ecosystems.

PubMed

Barnes, Andrew D; Weigelt, Patrick; Jochum, Malte; Ott, David; Hodapp, Dorothee; Haneda, Noor Farikhah; Brose, Ulrich

2016-05-19

Predicting ecosystem functioning at large spatial scales rests on our ability to scale up from local plots to landscapes, but this is highly contingent on our understanding of how functioning varies through space. Such an understanding has been hampered by a strong experimental focus of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research restricted to small spatial scales. To address this limitation, we investigate the drivers of spatial variation in multitrophic energy flux-a measure of ecosystem functioning in complex communities-at the landscape scale. We use a structural equation modelling framework based on distance matrices to test how spatial and environmental distances drive variation in community energy flux via four mechanisms: species composition, species richness, niche complementarity and biomass. We found that in both a tropical and a temperate study region, geographical and environmental distance indirectly influence species richness and biomass, with clear evidence that these are the dominant mechanisms explaining variability in community energy flux over spatial and environmental gradients. Our results reveal that species composition and trait variability may become redundant in predicting ecosystem functioning at the landscape scale. Instead, we demonstrate that species richness and total biomass may best predict rates of ecosystem functioning at larger spatial scales. © 2016 The Author(s).

Reference intervals and allometric scaling of two-dimensional echocardiographic measurements in 150 healthy cats.

PubMed

Karsten, Schober; Stephanie, Savino; Vedat, Yildiz

2017-11-10

The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of body weight (BW), breed, and sex on two-dimensional (2D) echocardiographic measures, reference ranges, and prediction intervals using allometrically-scaled data of left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) size and LV wall thickness in healthy cats. Study type was retrospective, observational, and clinical cohort. 150 healthy cats were enrolled and 2D echocardiograms analyzed. LA diameter, LV wall thickness, and LV dimension were quantified using three different imaging views. The effect of BW, breed, sex, age, and interaction (BW*sex) on echocardiographic variables was assessed using univariate and multivariate regression and linear mixed model analysis. Standard (using raw data) and allometrically scaled (Y=a × M b ) reference intervals and prediction intervals were determined. BW had a significant (P<0.05) independent effect on 2D variables whereas breed, sex, and age did not. There were clinically relevant differences between reference intervals using mean ± 2SD of raw data and mean and 95% prediction interval of allometrically-scaled variables, most prominent in larger (>6 kg) and smaller (<3 kg) cats. A clinically relevant difference between thickness of the interventricular septum (IVS) and dimension of the LV posterior wall (LVPW) was identified. In conclusion, allometric scaling and BW-based 95% prediction intervals should be preferred over conventional 2D echocardiographic reference intervals in cats, in particular in small and large cats. These results are particularly relevant to screening examinations for feline hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Detecting small-scale spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks: a comparison between automatic chamber-derived C budgets and repeated soil inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Mathias; Jurisch, Nicole; Garcia Alba, Juana; Albiac Borraz, Elisa; Schmidt, Marten; Huth, Vytas; Rogasik, Helmut; Rieckh, Helene; Verch, Gernot; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

2017-03-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in soils plays a key role in the global C cycle. It is therefore crucial to adequately monitor dynamics in soil organic carbon (ΔSOC) stocks when aiming to reveal underlying processes and potential drivers. However, small-scale spatial (10-30 m) and temporal changes in SOC stocks, particularly pronounced in arable lands, are hard to assess. The main reasons for this are limitations of the well-established methods. On the one hand, repeated soil inventories, often used in long-term field trials, reveal spatial patterns and trends in ΔSOC but require a longer observation period and a sufficient number of repetitions. On the other hand, eddy covariance measurements of C fluxes towards a complete C budget of the soil-plant-atmosphere system may help to obtain temporal ΔSOC patterns but lack small-scale spatial resolution. To overcome these limitations, this study presents a reliable method to detect both short-term temporal dynamics as well as small-scale spatial differences of ΔSOC using measurements of the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) as a proxy. To estimate the NECB, a combination of automatic chamber (AC) measurements of CO2 exchange and empirically modeled aboveground biomass development (NPPshoot) were used. To verify our method, results were compared with ΔSOC observed by soil resampling. Soil resampling and AC measurements were performed from 2010 to 2014 at a colluvial depression located in the hummocky ground moraine landscape of northeastern Germany. The measurement site is characterized by a variable groundwater level (GWL) and pronounced small-scale spatial heterogeneity regarding SOC and nitrogen (Nt) stocks. Tendencies and magnitude of ΔSOC values derived by AC measurements and repeated soil inventories corresponded well. The period of maximum plant growth was identified as being most important for the development of spatial differences in annual ΔSOC. Hence, we were able to confirm that AC-based C budgets are able to reveal small-scale spatial differences and short-term temporal dynamics of ΔSOC.

Small-scale variability of zooplankton pyruvate kinase activity in the Gironde Estuary plume (Atlantic French Coast): A case study under unusually low freshwater discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, Jean-Pierre

2006-09-01

Pyruvate kinase (PK) activity measurements are used to assess the role of carbohydrates in global feeding of mesozooplankton communities inhabiting an estuary plume. As a consequence of a remarkably low freshwater discharge rate, the sea surface layers of the area under estuarine influence showed a very moderate salinity fall and a nearly total depletion in nitrates, whereas higher levels of these nutrients were found in deeper, more saline, layers. Small-scale PK activity variations in mesozooplankton appear to be closely correlated to nitrate integration values within the water column. The results were analysed in comparison with literature reports. The study produced a coherent overall interpretation, which strongly supports the reliability of this new biochemical tool in detecting assimilation of trace carbohydrates in the diet of mesozooplankton.

Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are weak, especially when more stringent conditions are imposed (i.e. when T is very high), except at the monthly scale.

Is voluntary certification of tropical agricultural commodities achieving sustainability goals for small-scale producers? A review of the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeFries, Ruth S.; Fanzo, Jessica; Mondal, Pinki; Remans, Roseline; Wood, Stephen A.

2017-03-01

Over the last several decades, voluntary certification programs have become a key approach to promote sustainable supply chains for agricultural commodities. These programs provide premiums and other benefits to producers for adhering to environmental and labor practices established by the certifying entities. Following the principles of Cochrane Reviews used in health sciences, we assess evidence to evaluate whether voluntary certification of tropical agricultural commodities (bananas, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, and tea) has achieved environmental benefits and improved economic and social outcomes for small-scale producers at the level of the farm household. We reviewed over 2600 papers in the peer-review literature and identified 24 cases of unique combinations of study area, certification program, and commodity in 16 papers that rigorously analyzed differences between treatment (certified households) and control groups (uncertified households) for a wide range of response variables. Based on analysis of 347 response variables reported in these papers, we conclude that certification is associated on average with positive outcomes for 34% of response variables, no significant difference for 58% of variables, and negative outcomes for 8% of variables. No significant differences were observed for different categories of responses (environmental, economic and social) or for different commodities (banana, coffee and tea), except negative outcomes were significantly less for environmental than other outcome categories (p = 0.01). Most cases (20 out of 24) investigated coffee certification and response variables were inconsistent across cases, indicating the paucity of studies to conduct a conclusive meta-analysis. The somewhat positive results indicate that voluntary certification programs can sometimes play a role in meeting sustainable development goals and do not support the view that such programs are merely greenwashing. However, results also indicate that certification is not a panacea to improve social outcomes or overall incomes of smallholder farmers. Rigorous analysis, standardized criteria, and independent evaluation are needed to assess effectiveness of certification programs in the future.

Spatially Resolving Ocean Color and Sediment Dispersion in River Plumes, Coastal Systems, and Continental Shelf Waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aurin, Dirk Alexander; Mannino, Antonio; Franz, Bryan

2013-01-01

Satellite remote sensing of ocean color in dynamic coastal, inland, and nearshorewaters is impeded by high variability in optical constituents, demands specialized atmospheric correction, and is limited by instrument sensitivity. To accurately detect dispersion of bio-optical properties, remote sensors require ample signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to sense small variations in ocean color without saturating over bright pixels, an atmospheric correction that can accommodate significantwater-leaving radiance in the near infrared (NIR), and spatial and temporal resolution that coincides with the scales of variability in the environment. Several current and historic space-borne sensors have met these requirements with success in the open ocean, but are not optimized for highly red-reflective and heterogeneous waters such as those found near river outflows or in the presence of sediment resuspension. Here we apply analytical approaches for determining optimal spatial resolution, dominant spatial scales of variability ("patches"), and proportions of patch variability that can be resolved from four river plumes around the world between 2008 and 2011. An offshore region in the Sargasso Sea is analyzed for comparison. A method is presented for processing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra imagery including cloud detection, stray lightmasking, faulty detector avoidance, and dynamic aerosol correction using short-wave- and near-infrared wavebands in extremely turbid regions which pose distinct optical and technical challenges. Results showthat a pixel size of approx. 520 mor smaller is generally required to resolve spatial heterogeneity in ocean color and total suspended materials in river plumes. Optimal pixel size increases with distance from shore to approx. 630 m in nearshore regions, approx 750 m on the continental shelf, and approx. 1350 m in the open ocean. Greater than 90% of the optical variability within plume regions is resolvable with 500 m resolution, and small, but significant, differences were found between peak and nadir river flow periods in terms of optimal resolution and resolvable proportion of variability.

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream-aquifer exchanges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Winter, C. L.; Wang, Z.

2015-11-01

Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream-aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream-aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW (Modular Three-dimensional Finite-difference Groundwater Flow Model) simulation environment, and the PEST (parameter estimation) tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop lognormally distributed conductivity (K) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer-stream exchanges. Since surface water-groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

A well-scaling natural orbital theory

DOE PAGES

Gebauer, Ralph; Cohen, Morrel H.; Car, Roberto

2016-11-01

Here, we introduce an energy functional for ground-state electronic structure calculations. Its variables are the natural spin-orbitals of singlet many-body wave functions and their joint occupation probabilities deriving from controlled approximations to the two-particle density matrix that yield algebraic scaling in general, and Hartree–Fock scaling in its seniority-zero version. Results from the latter version for small molecular systems are compared with those of highly accurate quantum-chemical computations. The energies lie above full configuration interaction calculations, close to doubly occupied configuration interaction calculations. Their accuracy is considerably greater than that obtained from current density-functional theory approximations and from current functionals ofmore » the oneparticle density matrix.« less

Development of renormalization group analysis of turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, L. M.

1990-01-01

The renormalization group (RG) procedure for nonlinear, dissipative systems is now quite standard, and its applications to the problem of hydrodynamic turbulence are becoming well known. In summary, the RG method isolates self similar behavior and provides a systematic procedure to describe scale invariant dynamics in terms of large scale variables only. The parameterization of the small scales in a self consistent manner has important implications for sub-grid modeling. This paper develops the homogeneous, isotropic turbulence and addresses the meaning and consequence of epsilon-expansion. The theory is then extended to include a weak mean flow and application of the RG method to a sequence of models is shown to converge to the Navier-Stokes equations.

A well-scaling natural orbital theory

PubMed Central

Gebauer, Ralph; Cohen, Morrel H.; Car, Roberto

2016-01-01

We introduce an energy functional for ground-state electronic structure calculations. Its variables are the natural spin-orbitals of singlet many-body wave functions and their joint occupation probabilities deriving from controlled approximations to the two-particle density matrix that yield algebraic scaling in general, and Hartree–Fock scaling in its seniority-zero version. Results from the latter version for small molecular systems are compared with those of highly accurate quantum-chemical computations. The energies lie above full configuration interaction calculations, close to doubly occupied configuration interaction calculations. Their accuracy is considerably greater than that obtained from current density-functional theory approximations and from current functionals of the one-particle density matrix. PMID:27803328

Multi-scale characterization of dissolution structures and porosity distribution in the upper part of the Biscayne aquifer using ground penetrating radar (GPR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mount, Gregory J.

The karst Biscayne aquifer is characterized by a heterogeneous spatial arrangement of porosity, making hydrogeological characterization difficult. In this dissertation, I investigate the use of ground penetrating radar (GPR), for understanding the spatial distribution of porosity variability in the Miami Limestone presented as a compilation of studies where scale of measurement is progressively increased to account for varying dimensions of dissolution features. In Chapter 2, GPR in zero offset acquisition mode is used to investigate the 2-D distribution of porosity and dielectric permittivity in a block of Miami Limestone at the laboratory scale (< 1.0 m). Petrophysical models based on fully saturated and unsaturated water conditions are used to estimate porosity and solid dielectric permittivity of the limestone. Results show a good correspondence between analytical and GPR-based porosity estimates and show variability between 22.0-66.0 %. In Chapter 3, GPR in common offset and common midpoint acquisition mode are used to estimate bulk porosity of the unsaturated Miami Limestone at the field scale (10.0-100.0 m). Estimates of porosity are based on the assumption that the directly measured water table reflector is flat and that any deviation is attributed to changes in velocity due to porosity variability. Results show sharp changes in porosity ranging between 33.2-60.9 % attributed to dissolution areas. In Chapter 4, GPR in common offset mode is used to characterize porosity variability in the saturated Biscayne aquifer at 100-1000 m field scales. The presence of numerous diffraction hyperbolae are used to estimate electromagnetic wave velocity and asses both horizontal and vertical changes in porosity after application of a petrophysical model. Results show porosity variability between 23.0-41.0 % and confirm the presence of isolated areas that could serve as enhanced infiltration or recharge. This research allows for the identification and delineation areas of macroporosity areas at 0.01 m lateral resolution and shows variability of porosity at different scales, reaching 37.0 % within 1.3 m, associated with areas of enhanced dissolution. Such improved resolution of porosity estimates can benefit water management efforts and transport modelling and help to better understand small scale relationships between ground water and surface water interactions.

Stochastic downscaling of numerically simulated spatial rain and cloud fields using a transient multifractal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, M.; Barros, A. P.; Miranda, P. M.

2012-04-01

Atmospheric fields can be extremely variable over wide ranges of spatial scales, with a scale ratio of 109-1010 between largest (planetary) and smallest (viscous dissipation) scale. Furthermore atmospheric fields with strong variability over wide ranges in scale most likely should not be artificially split apart into large and small scales, as in reality there is no scale separation between resolved and unresolved motions. Usually the effects of the unresolved scales are modeled by a deterministic bulk formula representing an ensemble of incoherent subgrid processes on the resolved flow. This is a pragmatic approach to the problem and not the complete solution to it. These models are expected to underrepresent the small-scale spatial variability of both dynamical and scalar fields due to implicit and explicit numerical diffusion as well as physically based subgrid scale turbulent mixing, resulting in smoother and less intermittent fields as compared to observations. Thus, a fundamental change in the way we formulate our models is required. Stochastic approaches equipped with a possible realization of subgrid processes and potentially coupled to the resolved scales over the range of significant scale interactions range provide one alternative to address the problem. Stochastic multifractal models based on the cascade phenomenology of the atmosphere and its governing equations in particular are the focus of this research. Previous results have shown that rain and cloud fields resulting from both idealized and realistic numerical simulations display multifractal behavior in the resolved scales. This result is observed even in the absence of scaling in the initial conditions or terrain forcing, suggesting that multiscaling is a general property of the nonlinear solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations governing atmospheric dynamics. Our results also show that the corresponding multiscaling parameters for rain and cloud fields exhibit complex nonlinear behavior depending on large scale parameters such as terrain forcing and mean atmospheric conditions at each location, particularly mean wind speed and moist stability. A particularly robust behavior found is the transition of the multiscaling parameters between stable and unstable cases, which has a clear physical correspondence to the transition from stratiform to organized (banded) convective regime. Thus multifractal diagnostics of moist processes are fundamentally transient and should provide a physically robust basis for the downscaling and sub-grid scale parameterizations of moist processes. Here, we investigate the possibility of using a simplified computationally efficient multifractal downscaling methodology based on turbulent cascades to produce statistically consistent fields at scales higher than the ones resolved by the model. Specifically, we are interested in producing rainfall and cloud fields at spatial resolutions necessary for effective flash flood and earth flows forecasting. The results are examined by comparing downscaled field against observations, and tendency error budgets are used to diagnose the evolution of transient errors in the numerical model prediction which can be attributed to aliasing.

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Gonçalves, João; Alves, Paulo; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Honrado, João P

2018-01-01

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species' distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species' conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Nearest-Neighbor Distances and Aggregative Effects in Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanerolle, Lyon W. J.; Rothschild, B. J.; Yeung, P. K.

2000-11-01

The dispersive nature of turbulence which causes fluid elements to move apart (on average) is well known. Here we study another facet of turbulent mixing relevant to marine population dynamics - on how small organisms (approximated by fluid particles) are brought close to each other and allowed to interact. The crucial role played by the small scales in this process allows us to use direct numerical simulations of stationary isotropic turbulence, here with Taylor-scale Reynolds numbers (R_λ) from 38 to 91. We study the evolution of the Nearest-Neighbor Distances (NND) for collections of fluid particles initially located randomly in space satisfying Poisson-type distributions with mean values from 0.5 to 2.0 Kolmogorov length scales. Our results show that as particles begin to disperse on average, some also begin to aggregate in space. In particular, we find that (i) a significant proportion of particles are closer to each other than if their NNDs were randomly distributed, (ii) aggregative effects become stronger with R_λ, and (iii) although the mean value of NND grows monotonically with time in Kolmogorov variables, the growth rates are slower at higher R_λ. These results may assist in explaining the ``patchiness'' in plankton distributions observed in biological oceanography. Further details are given in B. J. Rothschild et al., The Biophysical Interpretation of Spatial Effects of Small-scale Turbulent Flow in the Ocean (paper in prep.).

Variability of the Magnetic Field Power Spectrum in the Solar Wind at Electron Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Owen Wyn; Alexandrova, O.; Kajdič, P.; Turc, L.; Perrone, D.; Escoubet, C. P.; Walsh, A.

2017-12-01

At electron scales, the power spectrum of solar-wind magnetic fluctuations can be highly variable and the dissipation mechanisms of the magnetic energy into the various particle species is under debate. In this paper, we investigate data from the Cluster mission’s STAFF Search Coil magnetometer when the level of turbulence is sufficiently high that the morphology of the power spectrum at electron scales can be investigated. The Cluster spacecraft sample a disturbed interval of plasma where two streams of solar wind interact. Meanwhile, several discontinuities (coherent structures) are seen in the large-scale magnetic field, while at small scales several intermittent bursts of wave activity (whistler waves) are present. Several different morphologies of the power spectrum can be identified: (1) two power laws separated by a break, (2) an exponential cutoff near the Taylor shifted electron scales, and (3) strong spectral knees at the Taylor shifted electron scales. These different morphologies are investigated by using wavelet coherence, showing that, in this interval, a clear break and strong spectral knees are features that are associated with sporadic quasi parallel propagating whistler waves, even for short times. On the other hand, when no signatures of whistler waves at ∼ 0.1{--}0.2{f}{ce} are present, a clear break is difficult to find and the spectrum is often more characteristic of a power law with an exponential cutoff.

Modeling small-scale variability in the composition of goshawk habitat on the Kaibab National Forest

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Joy; Robin M. Reich; Richard T. Reynolds

2000-01-01

We used field data, topographical information (elevation, slope, aspect, landform), and Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to model forest vegetative types to a 10-m resolution on the Kaibab National Forest in northern Arizona. Forest types were identified by clustering the field data and then using a decision tree based on the spectral characteristics of a Landsat image...

Intradaily variability of water quality in a shallow tidal lagoon: Mechanisms and implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lucas, L.V.; Sereno, D.M.; Burau, J.R.; Schraga, T.S.; Lopez, C.B.; Stacey, M.T.; Parchevsky, K.V.; Parchevsky, V.P.

2006-01-01

Although surface water quality and its underlying processes vary over time scales ranging from seconds to decades, they have historically been studied at the lower (weekly to interannual) frequencies. The aim of this study was to investigate intradaily variability of three water quality parameters in a small freshwater tidal lagoon (Mildred Island, California). High frequency time series of specific conductivity, water temperature, and chlorophyll a at two locations within the habitat were analyzed in conjunction with supporting hydrodynamic, meteorological, biological, and spatial mapping data. All three constituents exhibited large amplitude intradaily (e.g., semidiurnal tidal and diurnal) oscillations, and periodicity varied across constituents, space, and time. Like other tidal embayments, this habitat is influenced by several processes with distinct periodicities including physical controls, such as tides, solar radiation, and wind, and biological controls, such as photosynthesis, growth, and grazing. A scaling approach was developed to estimate individual process contributions to the observed variability. Scaling results were generally consistent with observations and together with detailed examination of time series and time derivatives, revealed specific mechanisms underlying the observed periodicities, including interactions between the tidal variability, heating, wind, and biology. The implications for monitoring were illustrated through subsampling of the data set. This exercise demonstrated how quantities needed by scientists and managers (e.g., mean or extreme concentrations) may be misrepresented by low frequency data and how short-duration high frequency measurements can aid in the design and interpretation of temporally coarser sampling programs. The dispersive export of chlorophyll a from the habitat exhibited a fortnightly variability corresponding to the modulation of semidiurnal tidal currents with the diurnal cycle of phytoplankton variability, demonstrating how high frequency interactions can govern long-term trends. Process identification, as through the scaling analysis here, can help us anticipate changes in system behavior and adapt our own interactions with the system. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Lance R.; Taylor, Christopher M.; Warren, Melvin L., Jr.; Clingenpeel, J. Alan

2002-01-01

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990-1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.

Streams in the urban heat island: spatial and temporal variability in temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Somers, Kayleigh A.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Grace, James B.; Hassett, Brooke A.; Sudduth, Elizabeth B.; Wang, Siyi; Urban, Dean L.

2013-01-01

Streams draining urban heat islands tend to be hotter than rural and forested streams at baseflow because of warmer urban air and ground temperatures, paved surfaces, and decreased riparian canopy. Urban infrastructure efficiently routes runoff over hot impervious surfaces and through storm drains directly into streams and can lead to rapid, dramatic increases in temperature. Thermal regimes affect habitat quality and biogeochemical processes, and changes can be lethal if temperatures exceed upper tolerance limits of aquatic fauna. In summer 2009, we collected continuous (10-min interval) temperature data in 60 streams spanning a range of development intensity in the Piedmont of North Carolina, USA. The 5 most urbanized streams averaged 21.1°C at baseflow, compared to 19.5°C in the 5 most forested streams. Temperatures in urban streams rose as much as 4°C during a small regional storm, whereas the same storm led to extremely small to no changes in temperature in forested streams. Over a kilometer of stream length, baseflow temperature varied by as much as 10°C in an urban stream and as little as 2°C in a forested stream. We used structural equation modeling to explore how reach- and catchment-scale attributes interact to explain maximum temperatures and magnitudes of storm-flow temperature surges. The best predictive model of baseflow temperatures (R2  =  0.461) included moderately strong pathways directly (extent of development and road density) and indirectly, as mediated by reach-scale factors (canopy closure and stream width), from catchment-scale factors. The strongest influence on storm-flow temperature surges appeared to be % development in the catchment. Reach-scale factors, such as the extent of riparian forest and stream width, had little mitigating influence (R2  =  0.448). Stream temperature is an essential, but overlooked, aspect of the urban stream syndrome and is affected by reach-scale habitat variables, catchment-scale urbanization, and stream thermal regimes.

Nine time steps: ultra-fast statistical consistency testing of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v3.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milroy, Daniel J.; Baker, Allison H.; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Jessup, Elizabeth R.

2018-02-01

The Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) suite was developed as an alternative to requiring bitwise identical output for quality assurance. This objective test provides a statistical measurement of consistency between an accepted ensemble created by small initial temperature perturbations and a test set of CESM simulations. In this work, we extend the CESM-ECT suite with an inexpensive and robust test for ensemble consistency that is applied to Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) output after only nine model time steps. We demonstrate that adequate ensemble variability is achieved with instantaneous variable values at the ninth step, despite rapid perturbation growth and heterogeneous variable spread. We refer to this new test as the Ultra-Fast CAM Ensemble Consistency Test (UF-CAM-ECT) and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice, including its ability to detect small-scale events and its applicability to the Community Land Model (CLM). The new ultra-fast test facilitates CESM development, porting, and optimization efforts, particularly when used to complement information from the original CESM-ECT suite of tools.

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Methods Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts’ exposure to the parasite’s dispersive stages. Results Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. Conclusions These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation—a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions—and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics. PMID:28828270

Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.

Predicting active-layer soil thickness using topographic variables at a small watershed scale

PubMed Central

Li, Aidi; Tan, Xing; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hongbin; Zhu, Jie

2017-01-01

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of active-layer (AL) soil thickness is indispensable for ecological modeling, precision agriculture, and land resource management. However, it is difficult to obtain the details on AL soil thickness by using conventional soil survey method. In this research, the objective is to investigate the possibility and accuracy of mapping the spatial distribution of AL soil thickness through random forest (RF) model by using terrain variables at a small watershed scale. A total of 1113 soil samples collected from the slope fields were randomly divided into calibration (770 soil samples) and validation (343 soil samples) sets. Seven terrain variables including elevation, aspect, relative slope position, valley depth, flow path length, slope height, and topographic wetness index were derived from a digital elevation map (30 m). The RF model was compared with multiple linear regression (MLR), geographically weighted regression (GWR) and support vector machines (SVM) approaches based on the validation set. Model performance was evaluated by precision criteria of mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Comparative results showed that RF outperformed MLR, GWR and SVM models. The RF gave better values of ME (0.39 cm), MAE (7.09 cm), and RMSE (10.85 cm) and higher R2 (62%). The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the DEM had less uncertainty than the AL soil thickness. The outcome of the RF model indicated that elevation, flow path length and valley depth were the most important factors affecting the AL soil thickness variability across the watershed. These results demonstrated the RF model is a promising method for predicting spatial distribution of AL soil thickness using terrain parameters. PMID:28877196

[Reproductive variables and gynaecological service use in delusional disorder outpatients].

PubMed

González-Rodríguez, Alexandre; Molina-Andreu, Oriol; Penadés Rubio, Rafael; Catalán Campos, Rosa; Bernardo Arroyo, Miguel

2015-01-01

Oestrogens have been hypothesized to have a protective effect in psychotic disorders. Women with schizophrenia have a later age of menarche, fewer pregnancies and earlier age of menopause. However, little information is available focusing on delusional disorder (DD). We aimed to evaluate gynaecological variables and psychopathology, and rates of gynaecological service use in female DD outpatients. Fourty-six outpatients with DD (DSM-IV-TR) were attended at the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona, from 2008 to 2013. Demographic and clinical variables, as well as gynaecological features were recorded in twenty-five women with DD. Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression-17 for depression, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale for psychopathology, Personal and Social Performance for functionality, and Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale were assessed. Mean age of menarche (SD) was 12.83(1.54) years, mean age of menopause 48.73(2.69), mean age at onset of DD was 48.70(13.03). 48% of the sample did not receive gynaecological attention in the last 2-3 years. No statistically significant correlations were found between age at menopause and age at onset of DD. Age at menopause showed a tendency to be negatively correlated with Personal and Social Performance total scores (r = -0.431; P = .074), and was positively associated with suicidal ideation intensity (r = 0.541; P = .038). However, after controlling for social support variables, this relationship was no longer significant. Although a small sample size, this is the first study to specifically examine gynaecological variables in DD. Low compliance rates in gynaecological service use were found. No correlations between age at menopause and clinical variables were statistically significant. Copyright © 2013 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

2010-12-01

We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales (plots vs. hillslopes) and levels of biophysical organization (individual plants vs. aggregate plant biomass) can help us to understand how and why mountainous ecosystems may have distinctive responses to climate variability and climate change.

Structure and covariance of cloud and rain water in marine stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, Mikael; Morrison, Hugh; Gettelman, Andrew

2017-04-01

Many state of the art cloud microphysics parameterizations in large-scale models use assumed probability density functions (pdfs) to represent subgrid scale variability of relevant resolved scale variables such as vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content (LWC). Integration over the assumed pdfs of small scale variability results in physically consistent prediction of nonlinear microphysical process rates and obviates the need to apply arbitrary tuning parameters to the calculated rates. In such parameterizations, the covariance of cloud and rain LWC is an important quantity for parameterizing the accretion process by which rain drops grow via collection of cloud droplets. This covariance has been diagnosed by other workers from a variety of observational and model datasets (Boutle et al., 2013; Larson and Griffin, 2013; Lebsock et al., 2013), but there is poor agreement in findings across the studies. Two key assumptions that may explain some of the discrepancies among past studies are 1) LWC (both cloud and rain) distributions are statistically stationary and 2) spatial structure may be neglected. Given the highly intermittent nature of precipitation and the fact that cloud LWC has been found to be poorly represented by stationary pdfs (e.g. Marshak et al., 1997), neither of the aforementioned assumptions are valid. Therefore covariance must be evaluated as a function of spatial scale without the assumption of stationary statistics (i.e. variability cannot be expressed as a fractional standard deviation, which necessitates well-defined first and second moments of the LWC distribution). The present study presents multifractal analyses of both rain and cloud LWC using aircraft data from the VOCALS-REx field campaign to illustrate the importance of spatial structure in microphysical parameterizations and extends the results of Boutle et al. (2013) to provide a parameterization of rain-cloud water covariance as a function of spatial scale without the assumption of statistical stationarity.

Multifractal cross-correlation effects in two-variable time series of complex network vertex observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OświÈ©cimka, Paweł; Livi, Lorenzo; DroŻdŻ, Stanisław

2016-10-01

We investigate the scaling of the cross-correlations calculated for two-variable time series containing vertex properties in the context of complex networks. Time series of such observables are obtained by means of stationary, unbiased random walks. We consider three vertex properties that provide, respectively, short-, medium-, and long-range information regarding the topological role of vertices in a given network. In order to reveal the relation between these quantities, we applied the multifractal cross-correlation analysis technique, which provides information about the nonlinear effects in coupling of time series. We show that the considered network models are characterized by unique multifractal properties of the cross-correlation. In particular, it is possible to distinguish between Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, and Watts-Strogatz networks on the basis of fractal cross-correlation. Moreover, the analysis of protein contact networks reveals characteristics shared with both scale-free and small-world models.

Black hole physics. Black hole lightning due to particle acceleration at subhorizon scales.

PubMed

Aleksić, J; Ansoldi, S; Antonelli, L A; Antoranz, P; Babic, A; Bangale, P; Barrio, J A; Becerra González, J; Bednarek, W; Bernardini, E; Biasuzzi, B; Biland, A; Blanch, O; Bonnefoy, S; Bonnoli, G; Borracci, F; Bretz, T; Carmona, E; Carosi, A; Colin, P; Colombo, E; Contreras, J L; Cortina, J; Covino, S; Da Vela, P; Dazzi, F; De Angelis, A; De Caneva, G; De Lotto, B; de Oña Wilhelmi, E; Delgado Mendez, C; Dominis Prester, D; Dorner, D; Doro, M; Einecke, S; Eisenacher, D; Elsaesser, D; Fonseca, M V; Font, L; Frantzen, K; Fruck, C; Galindo, D; García López, R J; Garczarczyk, M; Garrido Terrats, D; Gaug, M; Godinović, N; González Muñoz, A; Gozzini, S R; Hadasch, D; Hanabata, Y; Hayashida, M; Herrera, J; Hildebrand, D; Hose, J; Hrupec, D; Idec, W; Kadenius, V; Kellermann, H; Kodani, K; Konno, Y; Krause, J; Kubo, H; Kushida, J; La Barbera, A; Lelas, D; Lewandowska, N; Lindfors, E; Lombardi, S; Longo, F; López, M; López-Coto, R; López-Oramas, A; Lorenz, E; Lozano, I; Makariev, M; Mallot, K; Maneva, G; Mankuzhiyil, N; Mannheim, K; Maraschi, L; Marcote, B; Mariotti, M; Martínez, M; Mazin, D; Menzel, U; Miranda, J M; Mirzoyan, R; Moralejo, A; Munar-Adrover, P; Nakajima, D; Niedzwiecki, A; Nilsson, K; Nishijima, K; Noda, K; Orito, R; Overkemping, A; Paiano, S; Palatiello, M; Paneque, D; Paoletti, R; Paredes, J M; Paredes-Fortuny, X; Persic, M; Poutanen, J; Prada Moroni, P G; Prandini, E; Puljak, I; Reinthal, R; Rhode, W; Ribó, M; Rico, J; Rodriguez Garcia, J; Rügamer, S; Saito, T; Saito, K; Satalecka, K; Scalzotto, V; Scapin, V; Schultz, C; Schweizer, T; Shore, S N; Sillanpää, A; Sitarek, J; Snidaric, I; Sobczynska, D; Spanier, F; Stamatescu, V; Stamerra, A; Steinbring, T; Storz, J; Strzys, M; Takalo, L; Takami, H; Tavecchio, F; Temnikov, P; Terzić, T; Tescaro, D; Teshima, M; Thaele, J; Tibolla, O; Torres, D F; Toyama, T; Treves, A; Uellenbeck, M; Vogler, P; Zanin, R; Kadler, M; Schulz, R; Ros, E; Bach, U; Krauß, F; Wilms, J

2014-11-28

Supermassive black holes with masses of millions to billions of solar masses are commonly found in the centers of galaxies. Astronomers seek to image jet formation using radio interferometry but still suffer from insufficient angular resolution. An alternative method to resolve small structures is to measure the time variability of their emission. Here we report on gamma-ray observations of the radio galaxy IC 310 obtained with the MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov) telescopes, revealing variability with doubling time scales faster than 4.8 min. Causality constrains the size of the emission region to be smaller than 20% of the gravitational radius of its central black hole. We suggest that the emission is associated with pulsar-like particle acceleration by the electric field across a magnetospheric gap at the base of the radio jet. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Planetary micro-rover operations on Mars using a Bayesian framework for inference and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Mark A.; Li, Junquan; Quine, Brendan M.

2016-03-01

With the recent progress toward the application of commercially-available hardware to small-scale space missions, it is now becoming feasible for groups of small, efficient robots based on low-power embedded hardware to perform simple tasks on other planets in the place of large-scale, heavy and expensive robots. In this paper, we describe design and programming of the Beaver micro-rover developed for Northern Light, a Canadian initiative to send a small lander and rover to Mars to study the Martian surface and subsurface. For a small, hardware-limited rover to handle an uncertain and mostly unknown environment without constant management by human operators, we use a Bayesian network of discrete random variables as an abstraction of expert knowledge about the rover and its environment, and inference operations for control. A framework for efficient construction and inference into a Bayesian network using only the C language and fixed-point mathematics on embedded hardware has been developed for the Beaver to make intelligent decisions with minimal sensor data. We study the performance of the Beaver as it probabilistically maps a simple outdoor environment with sensor models that include uncertainty. Results indicate that the Beaver and other small and simple robotic platforms can make use of a Bayesian network to make intelligent decisions in uncertain planetary environments.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Variability of isotope and major ion chemistry in the Allequash Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Bullen, Thomas D.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Kendall, Carol

2003-01-01

As part of ongoing research conducted at one of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochem-ical Budgets sites, work was undertaken to describe the spatial and temporal variability of stream and ground water isotopic composition and cation chemistry in the Trout Lake watershed, to relate the variability to the watershed flow system, and to identify the linkages of geochemical evolution and source of water in the watershed. The results are based on periodic sampling of sites at two scales along Allequash Creek, a small headwater stream in northern Wisconsin. Based on this sampling, there are distinct water isotopic and geochemical differences observed at a smaller hillslope scale and the larger Allequash Creek scale. The variability was larger than expected for this simple watershed, and is likely to be seen in more complex basins. Based on evidence from multiple isotopes and stream chemistry, the flow system arises from three main source waters (terrestrial-, lake-, or wetland-derived recharge) that can be identified along any flowpath using water isotopes together with geochemical characteristics such as iron concentrations. The ground water chemistry demonstrates considerable spatial variability that depends mainly on the flow-path length and water mobility through the aquifer. Calcium concentrations increase with increasing flowpath length, whereas strontium isotope ratios increase with increasing extent of stagnation in either the unsaturated or saturated zones as waters move from source to sink. The flowpath distribution we identify provides important constraints on the calibration of ground water flow models such as that undertaken by Pint et al. (this issue).

Multiscale adaptive analysis of circadian rhythms and intradaily variability: Application to actigraphy time series in acute insomnia subjects

PubMed Central

Rivera, Ana Leonor; Toledo-Roy, Juan C.; Ellis, Jason; Angelova, Maia

2017-01-01

Circadian rhythms become less dominant and less regular with chronic-degenerative disease, such that to accurately assess these pathological conditions it is important to quantify not only periodic characteristics but also more irregular aspects of the corresponding time series. Novel data-adaptive techniques, such as singular spectrum analysis (SSA), allow for the decomposition of experimental time series, in a model-free way, into a trend, quasiperiodic components and noise fluctuations. We compared SSA with the traditional techniques of cosinor analysis and intradaily variability using 1-week continuous actigraphy data in young adults with acute insomnia and healthy age-matched controls. The findings suggest a small but significant delay in circadian components in the subjects with acute insomnia, i.e. a larger acrophase, and alterations in the day-to-day variability of acrophase and amplitude. The power of the ultradian components follows a fractal 1/f power law for controls, whereas for those with acute insomnia this power law breaks down because of an increased variability at the 90min time scale, reminiscent of Kleitman’s basic rest-activity (BRAC) cycles. This suggests that for healthy sleepers attention and activity can be sustained at whatever time scale required by circumstances, whereas for those with acute insomnia this capacity may be impaired and these individuals need to rest or switch activities in order to stay focused. Traditional methods of circadian rhythm analysis are unable to detect the more subtle effects of day-to-day variability and ultradian rhythm fragmentation at the specific 90min time scale. PMID:28753669

Is CH4 consumption by soils controlled by physics or biology? Results from a study of plot-scale variability of greenhouse gas fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maier, Martin; Paulus, Sinikka; Nicolai, Clara; Nauer, Philipp

2017-04-01

Soil-atmosphere fluxes of trace gases vary on different spatial scales, between landscapes and ecosystems down to the plot scale within apparently homogenous sites. The production and consumption of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) underlie different spatial and temporal changes, und thus, their interrelation is difficult to unravel. Small-scale variability in soil properties is well-known from soil surveys, affecting theoretically water availability for plants, soil aeration, vegetation, the local photosynthesis rate, and, eventually, greenhouse gas fluxes. We investigated the small scale variability of greenhouse gas fluxes in a homogenous Scots Pine stand in a former riparian flood plain. Soil-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were carried out at 60 points on a 250 m2 plot with strata of diverse soil substrates and understory vegetation. Gas flux measurements were combined with soil physical lab measurements, and a soil vegetation survey. The soil was a source of CO2 and a sink for CH4 and N2O. No correlations between the fluxes and only weak correlations between the fluxes and soil physical factors were observed. CH4 and CO2 fluxes were significantly different for the soil-vegetation strata. Separating the dataset into the different soil-vegetation strata showed that CH4 consumption increased significantly with soil gas diffusivity and soil respiration. Methane consumption in the silt stratum was higher at a given soil gas diffusivity than in the sand stratum, indicating a higher methanotrophic microbe population and thus better habitats in silt. CH4 consumption increased with soil respiration in all strata, so that we speculate that the rhizosphere and decomposing organic litter (as origin of most of the soil respiration) facilitate a preferred habitat of methanotrophic microbes. The patterns of N2O consumption were more complex, but consumption seemed to be limited at locations with higher soil respiration. Thus, we conclude that soil texture has a significant effect on greenhouse gas fluxes on the plot scale and that the fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O are linked. Acknowledgement This research was financially supported by the project DFG (MA 5826/2-1).

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

Scale size-dependent characteristics of the nightside aurora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberset, B. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Samara, M.; Michell, R. G.

2017-02-01

We have determined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling using auroral imaging. Observations at fixed positions for an extended period of time are provided by a ground-based all-sky imager measuring the 557.7 nm auroral emissions. We report on a single event of nightside aurora (˜22 magnetic local time) preceding a substorm onset. To determine the spatiotemporal characteristics, we perform an innovative analysis of an all-sky imager movie (19 min duration, images at 3.31 Hz) that combines a two-dimensional spatial fast Fourier transform with a temporal correlation. We find a scale size-dependent variability where the largest scale sizes are stable on timescales of minutes while the small scale sizes are more variable. When comparing two smaller time intervals of different types of auroral displays, we find a variation in their characteristics. The characteristics averaged over the event are in remarkable agreement with the spatiotemporal characteristics of the nightside field-aligned currents during moderately disturbed times. Thus, two different electrodynamical parameters of the M-I coupling show similar behavior. This gives independent support to the claim of a system behavior that uses repeatable solutions to transfer energy and momentum from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere.

The effect of sulfate concentration on (sub)millimeter-scale sulfide δ 34S in hypersaline cyanobacterial mats over the diurnal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fike, David A.; Finke, Niko; Zha, Jessica; Blake, Garrett; Hoehler, Tori M.; Orphan, Victoria J.

2009-10-01

Substantial isotopic fractionations are associated with many microbial sulfur metabolisms and measurements of the bulk δ 34S isotopic composition of sulfur species (predominantly sulfates and/or sulfides) have been a key component in developing our understanding of both modern and ancient biogeochemical cycling. However, the interpretations of bulk δ 34S measurements are often non-unique, making reconstructions of paleoenvironmental conditions or microbial ecology challenging. In particular, the link between the μm-scale microbial activity that generates isotopic signatures and their eventual preservation as a bulk rock value in the geologic record has remained elusive, in large part because of the difficulty of extracting sufficient material at small scales. Here we investigate the potential for small-scale (˜100 μm-1 cm) δ 34S variability to provide additional constraints for environmental and/or ecological reconstructions. We have investigated the impact of sulfate concentrations (0.2, 1, and 80 mM SO 4) on the δ 34S composition of hydrogen sulfide produced over the diurnal (day/night) cycle in cyanobacterial mats from Guerrero Negro, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Sulfide was captured as silver sulfide on the surface of a 2.5 cm metallic silver disk partially submerged beneath the mat surface. Subsequent analyses were conducted on a Cameca 7f-GEO secondary ion mass spectrometer (SIMS) to record spatial δ 34S variability within the mats under different environmental conditions. Isotope measurements were made in a 2-dimensional grid for each incubation, documenting both lateral and vertical isotopic variation within the mats. Typical grids consisted of ˜400-800 individual measurements covering a lateral distance of ˜1 mm and a vertical depth of ˜5-15 mm. There is a large isotopic enrichment (˜10-20‰) in the uppermost mm of sulfide in those mats where [SO 4] was non-limiting (field and lab incubations at 80 mM). This is attributed to rapid recycling of sulfur (elevated sulfate reduction rates and extensive sulfide oxidation) at and above the chemocline. This isotopic gradient is observed in both day and night enrichments and suggests that, despite the close physical association between cyanobacteria and select sulfate-reducing bacteria, photosynthetic forcing has no substantive impact on δ 34S in these cyanobacterial mats. Perhaps equally surprising, large, spatially-coherent δ 34S oscillations (˜20-30‰ over 1 mm) occurred at depths up to ˜1.5 cm below the mat surface. These gradients must arise in situ from differential microbial metabolic activity and fractionation during sulfide production at depth. Sulfate concentrations were the dominant control on the spatial variability of sulfide δ 34S. Decreased sulfate concentrations diminished both vertical and lateral δ 34S variability, suggesting that small-scale variations of δ 34S can be diagnostic for reconstructing past sulfate concentrations, even when original sulfate δ 34S is unknown.

Putting a price tag on novel autologous cellular therapies.

PubMed

Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Bauer, Gerhard; Medcalf, Nicholas; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

2016-08-01

Cell therapies, especially autologous therapies, pose significant challenges to researchers who wish to move from small, probably academic, methods of manufacture to full commercial scale. There is a dearth of reliable information about the costs of operation, and this makes it difficult to predict with confidence the investment needed to translate the innovations to the clinic, other than as small-scale, clinician-led prescriptions. Here, we provide an example of the results of a cost model that takes into account the fixed and variable costs of manufacture of one such therapy. We also highlight the different factors that influence the product final pricing strategy. Our findings illustrate the need for cooperative and collective action by the research community in pre-competitive research to generate the operational models that are much needed to increase confidence in process development for these advanced products. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Acidity and microbial flora contaminating Senegalese reconstituted curdled milk produced on small scale].

PubMed

Seydi, M; Ndiaye, M

1993-01-01

The present study is carried out to appreciate the acidity, and survey the microbiological quality of reconstituted curdled milk (R.C.M.) obtained on small scale. For his, a total of 100 samples collected from Dakar's sellers were examined. The results show that: pH of R.C.M. is low and very variable: 4.17 +/- 0.30, titrable acidity is high: 152.6 +/- 26.5 degrees D, 5% of samples are contaminated by fecal coliforms and yielded counts of 20 germs/g, 19% of samples are polluted by Staphylococcus aureus to level equal to 10(2) germs/g or higher, yeasts and moulds are present in all samples, salmonella were absent. Saphylococcus aureus survival in curdled milk despite a dysgenesic acidity may be the result of very unhygienic conditions of preparation. Sellers and consumers must be encouraged to respect hygienic rules of preparation. It is the only way to prevent food poisoning.

Nerve Ultrasound and Electrophysiology for Therapy Monitoring in Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy.

PubMed

Kerasnoudis, Antonios; Pitarokoili, Kalliopi; Gold, Ralf; Yoon, Min-Suk

2015-01-01

We evaluated prospectively nerve ultrasound and electrophysiology as monitoring methods of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP). Overall 15 healthy subjects and 11 CIDP patients undergoing IVIG therapy were recruited in the study. All patients underwent clinical, ultrasound, and electrophysiological evaluation at the time point of first onset of symptoms (<6 weeks of symptoms) and 4, 8, and 12 months after onset. The intranerve cross-sectional area (CSA) variability of each nerve, but not the CSA alone, correlated with the MRC Scale score during 12-month follow-up. On the other hand, none of the electrophysiological parameters correlated with the MRC Scale Score in each of the peripheral nerves. Interestingly, in ¾ of the CIDP patients, the resolution of the conduction block correlated with the improvement in the MRC Sum score. Nerve ultrasound and in particular the intranerve CSA variability seems to be a useful method in monitoring CIDP patients. Although the sample size is small, the intranerve CSA variability seems to be more promising than neurophysiology. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Neuroimaging.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Impact of the nursing home scale on residents' social engagement in South Korea.

PubMed

Yoon, Ju Young; Kim, Hongsoo; Jung, Young-Il; Ha, Jung-Hwa

2016-12-01

This study aimed to describe the levels of social engagement and to examine the relationship between the nursing home scale groups and social engagement in nursing homes in South Korea. A total of 314 residents were randomly selected from rosters provided by 10 nursing homes located in three metropolitan areas in South Korea. The outcome variable was social engagement measured by the Revised Index of Social Engagement (RISE), and the key independent variable was the nursing home scale (small, medium, and large). Individual factors (age, gender, activities of daily living and cognitive function, and depressive symptoms) and organizational factors (location, ownership, and staffing levels) were controlled in the model as covariates. Multilevel logistic regression was used in this study. About half of the residents (46%) in this study were not socially engaged in the nursing home (RISE=0) where they resided. Controlling for individual- and organizational-level factors, the nursing home facility size was a significant factor to predict the likelihood of residents' social engagement, with that the residents in large-scale nursing homes being less likely to be socially engaged than those in medium-scale nursing homes (odds ratio = 0.457; p-value = 0.005). This study supports evidence from previous studies that smaller-scale nursing homes are likely to provide more person-centered care compared to larger-scale nursing homes. Subsequent quality studies are needed to examine how the mechanisms for how smaller-scale nursing homes can enhance residents' social engagement in terms of care delivery processes.

Wind-tunnel simulation of store jettison with the aid of magnetic artificial gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, T.; Adams, R.

1972-01-01

A method employed in the simulation of jettison of stores from aircraft involving small scale wind-tunnel drop tests from a model of the parent aircraft is described. Proper scaling of such experiments generally dictates that the gravitational acceleration should ideally be a test variable. A method of introducing a controllable artificial component of gravity by magnetic means has been proposed. The use of a magnetic artificial gravity facility based upon this idea, in conjunction with small scale wind-tunnel drop tests, would improve the accuracy of simulation. A review of the scaling laws as they apply to the design of such a facility is presented. The design constraints involved in the integration of such a facility with a wind tunnel are defined. A detailed performance analysis procedure applicable to such a facility is developed. A practical magnet configuration is defined which is capable of controlling the strength and orientation of the magnetic artificial gravity field in the vertical plane, thereby allowing simulation of store jettison from a diving or climbing aircraft. The factors involved in the choice between continuous or intermittent operation of the facility, and the use of normal or superconducting magnets, are defined.

Simulation-optimization of large agro-hydrosystems using a decomposition approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuetze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2014-05-01

In this contribution a stochastic simulation-optimization framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water supply of large agro-hydrosystems is presented. It is based on a decomposition solution strategy which allows for (i) the usage of numerical process models together with efficient Monte Carlo simulations for a reliable estimation of higher quantiles of the minimum agricultural water demand for full and deficit irrigation strategies at small scale (farm level), and (ii) the utilization of the optimization results at small scale for solving water resources management problems at regional scale. As a secondary result of several simulation-optimization runs at the smaller scale stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops are derived which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on risk for potential yield. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of the agro-ecological systems are evaluated. The developed methodology is demonstrated through its application on a real-world case study for the South Al-Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman where a coastal aquifer is affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture.

Identifying Drivers of Collective Action for the Co-management of Coastal Marine Fisheries in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica.

PubMed

García Lozano, Alejandro J; Heinen, Joel T

2016-04-01

Small-scale fisheries are important for preventing poverty, sustaining local economies, and rural livelihoods, but tend to be negatively impacted by traditional forms of management and overexploitation among other factors. Marine Areas for Responsible Fishing (Áreas Marinas de Pesca Responsable, AMPR) have emerged as a new model for the co-management of small-scale fisheries in Costa Rica, one that involves collaboration between fishers, government agencies, and NGOs. The primary objective of this paper is to elucidate some of the key variables that influence collective action among small-scale fishers in Tárcoles, a community in the Gulf of Nicoya. We examined collective action for the formation of a local marketing cooperative and participation in management through the AMPR. We apply the social-ecological framework as a diagnostic and organizational tool in the analysis of several types of qualitative data, including interviews with key informants, informal interviews, legal documents, and gray literature. Findings illustrate the importance of socio-economic community attributes (e.g., group size, homogeneity, previous cooperation), as well as that of social (e.g., equity) and ecological (e.g., improved stocks) outcomes perceived as favorable by actors. In addition, our work demonstrates the importance of certain kinds of external NGOs for facilitating and sustaining collective action.

Identifying Drivers of Collective Action for the Co-management of Coastal Marine Fisheries in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Lozano, Alejandro J.; Heinen, Joel T.

2016-04-01

Small-scale fisheries are important for preventing poverty, sustaining local economies, and rural livelihoods, but tend to be negatively impacted by traditional forms of management and overexploitation among other factors. Marine Areas for Responsible Fishing (Áreas Marinas de Pesca Responsable, AMPR) have emerged as a new model for the co-management of small-scale fisheries in Costa Rica, one that involves collaboration between fishers, government agencies, and NGOs. The primary objective of this paper is to elucidate some of the key variables that influence collective action among small-scale fishers in Tárcoles, a community in the Gulf of Nicoya. We examined collective action for the formation of a local marketing cooperative and participation in management through the AMPR. We apply the social-ecological framework as a diagnostic and organizational tool in the analysis of several types of qualitative data, including interviews with key informants, informal interviews, legal documents, and gray literature. Findings illustrate the importance of socio-economic community attributes (e.g., group size, homogeneity, previous cooperation), as well as that of social (e.g., equity) and ecological (e.g., improved stocks) outcomes perceived as favorable by actors. In addition, our work demonstrates the importance of certain kinds of external NGOs for facilitating and sustaining collective action.

Solar Wind Turbulence and the Role of Ion Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrova, O.; Chen, C. H. K.; Sorriso-Valvo, L.; Horbury, T. S.; Bale, S. D.

Solar wind is probably the best laboratory to study turbulence in astrophysical plasmas. In addition to the presence of magnetic field, the differences with neutral fluid isotropic turbulence are: (i) weakness of collisional dissipation and (ii) presence of several characteristic space and time scales. In this paper we discuss observational properties of solar wind turbulence in a large range from the MHD to the electron scales. At MHD scales, within the inertial range, turbulence cascade of magnetic fluctuations develops mostly in the plane perpendicular to the mean field, with the Kolmogorov scaling k_{perp}^{-5/3} for the perpendicular cascade and k_⊥^{-2} for the parallel one. Solar wind turbulence is compressible in nature: density fluctuations at MHD scales have the Kolmogorov spectrum. Velocity fluctuations do not follow magnetic field ones: their spectrum is a power-law with a -3/2 spectral index. Probability distribution functions of different plasma parameters are not Gaussian, indicating presence of intermittency. At the moment there is no global model taking into account all these observed properties of the inertial range. At ion scales, turbulent spectra have a break, compressibility increases and the density fluctuation spectrum has a local flattening. Around ion scales, magnetic spectra are variable and ion instabilities occur as a function of the local plasma parameters. Between ion and electron scales, a small scale turbulent cascade seems to be established. It is characterized by a well defined power-law spectrum in magnetic and density fluctuations with a spectral index close to -2.8. Approaching electron scales, the fluctuations are no more self-similar: an exponential cut-off is usually observed (for time intervals without quasi-parallel whistlers) indicating an onset of dissipation. The small scale inertial range between ion and electron scales and the electron dissipation range can be together described by ˜ k_{perp}^{-α}exp(-k_{perp}elld), with α≃8/3 and the dissipation scale ℓ d close to the electron Larmor radius ℓ d ≃ρ e . The nature of this small scale cascade and a possible dissipation mechanism are still under debate.

Effects of Spatial Patch Arrangement and Scale of Covarying Resources on Growth and Intraspecific Competition of a Clonal Plant

PubMed Central

Wang, Yong-Jian; Shi, Xue-Ping; Meng, Xue-Feng; Wu, Xiao-Jing; Luo, Fang-Li; Yu, Fei-Hai

2016-01-01

Spatial heterogeneity in two co-variable resources such as light and water availability is common and can affect the growth of clonal plants. Several studies have tested effects of spatial heterogeneity in the supply of a single resource on competitive interactions of plants, but none has examined those of heterogeneous distribution of two co-variable resources. In a greenhouse experiment, we grew one (without intraspecific competition) or nine isolated ramets (with competition) of a rhizomatous herb Iris japonica under a homogeneous environment and four heterogeneous environments differing in patch arrangement (reciprocal and parallel patchiness of light and soil water) and patch scale (large and small patches of light and water). Intraspecific competition significantly decreased the growth of I. japonica, but at the whole container level there were no significant interaction effects of competition by spatial heterogeneity or significant effect of heterogeneity on competitive intensity. Irrespective of competition, the growth of I. japonica in the high and the low water patches did not differ significantly in the homogeneous treatments, but it was significantly larger in the high than in the low water patches in the heterogeneous treatments with large patches. For the heterogeneous treatments with small patches, the growth of I. japonica was significantly larger in the high than in the low water patches in the presence of competition, but such an effect was not significant in the absence of competition. Furthermore, patch arrangement and patch scale significantly affected competitive intensity at the patch level. Therefore, spatial heterogeneity in light and water supply can alter intraspecific competition at the patch level and such effects depend on patch arrangement and patch scale. PMID:27375630

Effects of Spatial Patch Arrangement and Scale of Covarying Resources on Growth and Intraspecific Competition of a Clonal Plant.

PubMed

Wang, Yong-Jian; Shi, Xue-Ping; Meng, Xue-Feng; Wu, Xiao-Jing; Luo, Fang-Li; Yu, Fei-Hai

2016-01-01

Spatial heterogeneity in two co-variable resources such as light and water availability is common and can affect the growth of clonal plants. Several studies have tested effects of spatial heterogeneity in the supply of a single resource on competitive interactions of plants, but none has examined those of heterogeneous distribution of two co-variable resources. In a greenhouse experiment, we grew one (without intraspecific competition) or nine isolated ramets (with competition) of a rhizomatous herb Iris japonica under a homogeneous environment and four heterogeneous environments differing in patch arrangement (reciprocal and parallel patchiness of light and soil water) and patch scale (large and small patches of light and water). Intraspecific competition significantly decreased the growth of I. japonica, but at the whole container level there were no significant interaction effects of competition by spatial heterogeneity or significant effect of heterogeneity on competitive intensity. Irrespective of competition, the growth of I. japonica in the high and the low water patches did not differ significantly in the homogeneous treatments, but it was significantly larger in the high than in the low water patches in the heterogeneous treatments with large patches. For the heterogeneous treatments with small patches, the growth of I. japonica was significantly larger in the high than in the low water patches in the presence of competition, but such an effect was not significant in the absence of competition. Furthermore, patch arrangement and patch scale significantly affected competitive intensity at the patch level. Therefore, spatial heterogeneity in light and water supply can alter intraspecific competition at the patch level and such effects depend on patch arrangement and patch scale.

Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash flood understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, I.; Ayral, P.-A.; Bouvier, C.; Branger, F.; Delrieu, G.; Le Coz, J.; Nord, G.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Anquetin, S.; Adamovic, M.; Andrieu, J.; Batiot, C.; Boudevillain, B.; Brunet, P.; Carreau, J.; Confoland, A.; Didon-Lescot, J.-F.; Domergue, J.-M.; Douvinet, J.; Dramais, G.; Freydier, R.; Gérard, S.; Huza, J.; Leblois, E.; Le Bourgeois, O.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Marchand, P.; Martin, P.; Nottale, L.; Patris, N.; Renard, B.; Seidel, J.-L.; Taupin, J.-D.; Vannier, O.; Vincendon, B.; Wijbrans, A.

2014-09-01

This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche) larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1) the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2) the small to medium catchment scale (1-100 km2), where the impact of the network structure and of the spatial variability of rainfall, landscape and initial soil moisture can be quantified; (3) the larger scale (100-1000 km2), where the river routing and flooding processes become important. These observations are part of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) enhanced observation period (EOP), which will last 4 years (2012-2015). In terms of hydrological modelling, the objective is to set up regional-scale models, while addressing small and generally ungauged catchments, which represent the scale of interest for flood risk assessment. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined and the models are used as "hypothesis testing" tools by coupling model development with data analyses in order to incrementally evaluate the validity of model hypotheses. The paper first presents the rationale behind the experimental set-up and the instrumentation itself. Second, we discuss the associated modelling strategy. Results illustrate the potential of the approach in advancing our understanding of flash flood processes on various scales.

Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash-flood understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, I.; Ayral, P.-A.; Bouvier, C.; Branger, F.; Delrieu, G.; Le Coz, J.; Nord, G.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Anquetin, S.; Adamovic, M.; Andrieu, J.; Batiot, C.; Boudevillain, B.; Brunet, P.; Carreau, J.; Confoland, A.; Didon-Lescot, J.-F.; Domergue, J.-M.; Douvinet, J.; Dramais, G.; Freydier, R.; Gérard, S.; Huza, J.; Leblois, E.; Le Bourgeois, O.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Marchand, P.; Martin, P.; Nottale, L.; Patris, N.; Renard, B.; Seidel, J.-L.; Taupin, J.-D.; Vannier, O.; Vincendon, B.; Wijbrans, A.

2014-02-01

This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche) larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1) the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2) the small to medium catchment scale (1-100 km2) where the impact of the network structure and of the spatial variability of rainfall, landscape and initial soil moisture can be quantified; (3) the larger scale (100-1000 km2) where the river routing and flooding processes become important. These observations are part of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) Enhanced Observation Period (EOP) and lasts four years (2012-2015). In terms of hydrological modelling the objective is to set up models at the regional scale, while addressing small and generally ungauged catchments, which is the scale of interest for flooding risk assessment. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined and the models are used as "hypothesis testing" tools by coupling model development with data analyses, in order to incrementally evaluate the validity of model hypotheses. The paper first presents the rationale behind the experimental set up and the instrumentation itself. Second, we discuss the associated modelling strategy. Results illustrate the potential of the approach in advancing our understanding of flash flood processes at various scales.

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Modelling the Cost of Antiretroviral Treatment—State of the Art and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Over, Mead

2012-01-01

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention. PMID:22802731

Mathematical analysis techniques for modeling the space network activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, Lisa M.

1992-01-01

The objective of the present work was to explore and identify mathematical analysis techniques, and in particular, the use of linear programming. This topic was then applied to the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) in order to understand the space network better. Finally, a small scale version of the system was modeled, variables were identified, data was gathered, and comparisons were made between actual and theoretical data.

Adapt Design: A Methodology for Enabling Modular Design for Mission Specific SUAS

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-24

ADAPT DESIGN: A METHODOLOGY FOR ENABLING MODULAR DESIGN FOR MISSION SPECIFIC SUAS Zachary C. Fisher David Locascio K. Daniel Cooksey...vehicle’s small scale. This paper considers a different approach to SUAS design aimed at addressing this issue. In this approach, a hybrid modular and...Two types of platforms have been identified: scalable platforms where variants are produced by varying scalable design variables, and modular

The Plane-parallel Albedo Bias of Liquid Clouds from MODIS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cahalan, Robert F.; Platnick, Steven

2007-01-01

In our most advanced modeling tools for climate change prediction, namely General Circulation Models (GCMs), the schemes used to calculate the budget of solar and thermal radiation commonly assume that clouds are horizontally homogeneous at scales as large as a few hundred kilometers. However, this assumption, used for convenience, computational speed, and lack of knowledge on cloud small scale variability, leads to erroneous estimates of the radiation budget. This paper provides a global picture of the solar radiation errors at scales of approximately 100 km due to warm (liquid phase) clouds only. To achieve this, we use cloud retrievals from the instrument MODIS on the Terra and Aqua satellites, along with atmospheric and surface information, as input into a GCM-style radiative transfer algorithm. Since the MODIS product contains information on cloud variability below 100 km we can run the radiation algorithm both for the variable and the (assumed) homogeneous clouds. The difference between these calculations for reflected or transmitted solar radiation constitutes the bias that GCMs would commit if they were able to perfectly predict the properties of warm clouds, but then assumed they were homogeneous for radiation calculations. We find that the global average of this bias is approx.2-3 times larger in terms of energy than the additional amount of thermal energy that would be trapped if we were to double carbon dioxide from current concentrations. We should therefore make a greater effort to predict horizontal cloud variability in GCMs and account for its effects in radiation calculations.

Effects of rainfall spatial variability and intermittency on shallow landslide triggering patterns at a catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.; Or, D.

2014-10-01

The occurrence of shallow landslides is often associated with intense and prolonged rainfall events, where infiltrating water reduces soil strength and may lead to abrupt mass release. Despite general understanding of the role of rainfall water in slope stability, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides remains a challenge due to natural heterogeneity that affect hydrologic loading patterns and the largely unobservable internal progressive failures. An often overlooked and potentially important factor is the role of rainfall variability in space and time on landslide triggering that is often obscured by coarse information (e.g., hourly radar data at spatial resolution of a few kilometers). To quantify potential effects of rainfall variability on failure dynamics, spatial patterns, landslide numbers and volumes, we employed a physically based "Catchment-scale Hydromechanical Landslide Triggering" (CHLT) model for a study area where a summer storm in 2002 triggered 51 shallow landslides. In numerical experiments based on the CHLT model, we applied the measured rainfall amount of 53 mm in different artificial spatiotemporal rainfall patterns, resulting in between 30 and 100 landslides and total released soil volumes between 3000 and 60,000 m3 for the various scenarios. Results indicate that low intensity rainfall below soil's infiltration capacity resulted in the largest mechanical perturbation. This study illustrates how small-scale rainfall variability that is often overlooked by present operational rainfall data may play a key role in shaping landslide patterns.

"Economic man" in cross-cultural perspective: behavioral experiments in 15 small-scale societies.

PubMed

Henrich, Joseph; Boyd, Robert; Bowles, Samuel; Camerer, Colin; Fehr, Ernst; Gintis, Herbert; McElreath, Richard; Alvard, Michael; Barr, Abigail; Ensminger, Jean; Henrich, Natalie Smith; Hill, Kim; Gil-White, Francisco; Gurven, Michael; Marlowe, Frank W; Patton, John Q; Tracer, David

2005-12-01

Researchers from across the social sciences have found consistent deviations from the predictions of the canonical model of self-interest in hundreds of experiments from around the world. This research, however, cannot determine whether the uniformity results from universal patterns of human behavior or from the limited cultural variation available among the university students used in virtually all prior experimental work. To address this, we undertook a cross-cultural study of behavior in ultimatum, public goods, and dictator games in a range of small-scale societies exhibiting a wide variety of economic and cultural conditions. We found, first, that the canonical model - based on self-interest - fails in all of the societies studied. Second, our data reveal substantially more behavioral variability across social groups than has been found in previous research. Third, group-level differences in economic organization and the structure of social interactions explain a substantial portion of the behavioral variation across societies: the higher the degree of market integration and the higher the payoffs to cooperation in everyday life, the greater the level of prosociality expressed in experimental games. Fourth, the available individual-level economic and demographic variables do not consistently explain game behavior, either within or across groups. Fifth, in many cases experimental play appears to reflect the common interactional patterns of everyday life.

Rapid small-scale column testing of granular activated carbon for organic micro-pollutant removal in treated domestic wastewater.

PubMed

Zietzschmann, F; Müller, J; Sperlich, A; Ruhl, A S; Meinel, F; Altmann, J; Jekel, M

2014-01-01

This study investigates the applicability of the rapid small-scale column test (RSSCT) concept for testing of granular activated carbon (GAC) for organic micro-pollutants (OMPs) removal from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. The chosen experimental setup was checked using pure water, WWTP effluent, different GAC products, and variable hydrodynamic conditions with different flow velocities and differently sized GAC, as well as different empty bed contact times (EBCTs). The setup results in satisfying reproducibility and robustness. RSSCTs in combination with WWTP effluent are effective when comparing the OMP removal potentials of different GAC products and are a useful tool for the estimation of larger filters. Due to the potentially high competition between OMPs and bulk organics, breakthrough curves are likely to have unfavorable shapes when treating WWTP effluent. This effect can be counteracted by extending the EBCT. With respect to the strong competition observed in GAC treatment of WWTP effluent, the small organic acid and neutral substances are retained longer in the RSSCT filters and are likely to cause the majority of the observed adsorption competition with OMPs.

Scales of Spatial Heterogeneity of Plastic Marine Debris in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Miriam C.; Titmus, Andrew J.; Ford, Michael

2013-01-01

Plastic debris has been documented in many marine ecosystems, including remote coastlines, the water column, the deep sea, and subtropical gyres. The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), colloquially called the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch,” has been an area of particular scientific and public concern. However, quantitative assessments of the extent and variability of plastic in the NPSG have been limited. Here, we quantify the distribution, abundance, and size of plastic in a subset of the eastern Pacific (approximately 20–40°N, 120–155°W) over multiple spatial scales. Samples were collected in Summer 2009 using surface and subsurface plankton net tows and quantitative visual observations, and Fall 2010 using surface net tows only. We documented widespread, though spatially variable, plastic pollution in this portion of the NPSG and adjacent waters. The overall median microplastic numerical concentration in Summer 2009 was 0.448 particles m−2 and in Fall 2010 was 0.021 particles m−2, but plastic concentrations were highly variable over the submesoscale (10 s of km). Size-frequency spectra were skewed towards small particles, with the most abundant particles having a cross-sectional area of approximately 0.01 cm2. Most microplastic was found on the sea surface, with the highest densities detected in low-wind conditions. The numerical majority of objects were small particles collected with nets, but the majority of debris surface area was found in large objects assessed visually. Our ability to detect high-plastic areas varied with methodology, as stations with substantial microplastic did not necessarily also contain large visually observable objects. A power analysis of our data suggests that high variability of surface microplastic will make future changes in abundance difficult to detect without substantial sampling effort. Our findings suggest that assessment and monitoring of oceanic plastic debris must account for high spatial variability, particularly in regards to the evaluation of initiatives designed to reduce marine debris. PMID:24278233

Scales of spatial heterogeneity of plastic marine debris in the northeast pacific ocean.

PubMed

Goldstein, Miriam C; Titmus, Andrew J; Ford, Michael

2013-01-01

Plastic debris has been documented in many marine ecosystems, including remote coastlines, the water column, the deep sea, and subtropical gyres. The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), colloquially called the "Great Pacific Garbage Patch," has been an area of particular scientific and public concern. However, quantitative assessments of the extent and variability of plastic in the NPSG have been limited. Here, we quantify the distribution, abundance, and size of plastic in a subset of the eastern Pacific (approximately 20-40°N, 120-155°W) over multiple spatial scales. Samples were collected in Summer 2009 using surface and subsurface plankton net tows and quantitative visual observations, and Fall 2010 using surface net tows only. We documented widespread, though spatially variable, plastic pollution in this portion of the NPSG and adjacent waters. The overall median microplastic numerical concentration in Summer 2009 was 0.448 particles m(-2) and in Fall 2010 was 0.021 particles m(-2), but plastic concentrations were highly variable over the submesoscale (10 s of km). Size-frequency spectra were skewed towards small particles, with the most abundant particles having a cross-sectional area of approximately 0.01 cm(2). Most microplastic was found on the sea surface, with the highest densities detected in low-wind conditions. The numerical majority of objects were small particles collected with nets, but the majority of debris surface area was found in large objects assessed visually. Our ability to detect high-plastic areas varied with methodology, as stations with substantial microplastic did not necessarily also contain large visually observable objects. A power analysis of our data suggests that high variability of surface microplastic will make future changes in abundance difficult to detect without substantial sampling effort. Our findings suggest that assessment and monitoring of oceanic plastic debris must account for high spatial variability, particularly in regards to the evaluation of initiatives designed to reduce marine debris.

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Quality by design: scale-up of freeze-drying cycles in pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Pisano, Roberto; Fissore, Davide; Barresi, Antonello A; Rastelli, Massimo

2013-09-01

This paper shows the application of mathematical modeling to scale-up a cycle developed with lab-scale equipment on two different production units. The above method is based on a simplified model of the process parameterized with experimentally determined heat and mass transfer coefficients. In this study, the overall heat transfer coefficient between product and shelf was determined by using the gravimetric procedure, while the dried product resistance to vapor flow was determined through the pressure rise test technique. Once model parameters were determined, the freeze-drying cycle of a parenteral product was developed via dynamic design space for a lab-scale unit. Then, mathematical modeling was used to scale-up the above cycle in the production equipment. In this way, appropriate values were determined for processing conditions, which allow the replication, in the industrial unit, of the product dynamics observed in the small scale freeze-dryer. This study also showed how inter-vial variability, as well as model parameter uncertainty, can be taken into account during scale-up calculations.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Identifying, characterizing and predicting spatial patterns of lacustrine groundwater discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tecklenburg, Christina; Blume, Theresa

2017-10-01

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) can significantly affect lake water balances and lake water quality. However, quantifying LGD and its spatial patterns is challenging because of the large spatial extent of the aquifer-lake interface and pronounced spatial variability. This is the first experimental study to specifically study these larger-scale patterns with sufficient spatial resolution to systematically investigate how landscape and local characteristics affect the spatial variability in LGD. We measured vertical temperature profiles around a 0.49 km2 lake in northeastern Germany with a needle thermistor, which has the advantage of allowing for rapid (manual) measurements and thus, when used in a survey, high spatial coverage and resolution. Groundwater inflow rates were then estimated using the heat transport equation. These near-shore temperature profiles were complemented with sediment temperature measurements with a fibre-optic cable along six transects from shoreline to shoreline and radon measurements of lake water samples to qualitatively identify LGD patterns in the offshore part of the lake. As the hydrogeology of the catchment is sufficiently homogeneous (sandy sediments of a glacial outwash plain; no bedrock control) to avoid patterns being dominated by geological discontinuities, we were able to test the common assumptions that spatial patterns of LGD are mainly controlled by sediment characteristics and the groundwater flow field. We also tested the assumption that topographic gradients can be used as a proxy for gradients of the groundwater flow field. Thanks to the extensive data set, these tests could be carried out in a nested design, considering both small- and large-scale variability in LGD. We found that LGD was concentrated in the near-shore area, but alongshore variability was high, with specific regions of higher rates and higher spatial variability. Median inflow rates were 44 L m-2 d-1 with maximum rates in certain locations going up to 169 L m-2 d-1. Offshore LGD was negligible except for two local hotspots on steep steps in the lake bed topography. Large-scale groundwater inflow patterns were correlated with topography and the groundwater flow field, whereas small-scale patterns correlated with grain size distributions of the lake sediment. These findings confirm results and assumptions of theoretical and modelling studies more systematically than was previously possible with coarser sampling designs. However, we also found that a significant fraction of the variance in LGD could not be explained by these controls alone and that additional processes need to be considered. While regression models using these controls as explanatory variables had limited power to predict LGD rates, the results nevertheless encourage the use of topographic indices and sediment heterogeneity as an aid for targeted campaigns in future studies of groundwater discharge to lakes.

Diurnal variability in carbon and nitrogen pools within Chesapeake Bay and northern Gulf of Mexico: implications for future ocean color satellite sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannino, A.; Novak, M. G.; Tzortziou, M.; Salisbury, J.

2016-02-01

Relative to their areal extent, estuaries and coastal ocean ecosystems contribute disproportionately more to global biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements compared to the open ocean. Applying ocean color satellite data to study biological and biogeochemical processes within coastal ecosystems is challenging due to the complex mixtures of aquatic constituents derived from terrestrial, anthropogenic, and marine sources, human-impacted atmospheric properties, presence of clouds during satellite overpass, fine-scale spatial gradients, and time-varying processes on diurnal scales that cannot be resolved with current sensors. On diurnal scales, biological, photochemical, and biogeochemical processes are regulated by the variation in solar radiation. Other physical factors, such as tides, river discharge, estuarine and coastal ocean circulation, wind-driven mixing, etc., impart further variability on biological and biogeochemical processes on diurnal to multi-day time scales. Efforts to determine the temporal frequency required from a NASA GEO-CAPE ocean color satellite sensor to discern diurnal variability C and N stocks, fluxes and productivity culminated in field campaigns in the Chesapeake Bay and northern Gulf of Mexico. Near-surface drogues were released and tracked in quasi-lagrangian space to monitor hourly changes in community production, C and N stocks, and optical properties. While only small diurnal changes were observed in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption in Chesapeake Bay, substantial variation in particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PN), chlorophyll-a, and inorganic nitrogen (DIN) were measured. Similar or greater diurnal changes in POC, PN, chlorophyll-a and DIN were found in Gulf of Mexico nearshore and offshore sites. These results suggest that satellite observations at hourly frequency are desirable to capture diurnal variability in carbon and nitrogen stocks, fluxes and productivity within coastal ecosystems.

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

Assessment of the uncertainty and predictive power of large-scale predictors for nonlinear precipitation downscaling in the European Arctic (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauter, T.

2013-12-01

Despite the extensive research on downscaling methods there is still little consensus about the choice of useful atmospheric predictor variables. Besides the general decision of a proper statistical downscaling model, the selection of an informative predictor set is crucial for the accuracy and stability of the resulting downscaled time series. These requirements must be fullfilled by both the atmospheric variables and the predictor domains in terms of geographical location and spatial extend, to which in general not much attention is paid. However, only a limited number of studies is interested in the predictive capability of the predictor domain size or shape, and the question to what extent variability of neighboring grid points influence local-scale events. In this study we emphasized the spatial relationships between observed daily precipitation and selected number of atmospheric variables for the European Arctic. Several nonlinear regression models are used to link the large-scale predictors obtained from reanalysed Weather Research and Forecast model runs to the local-scale observed precipitation. Inferences on the sources of uncertainty are then drawn from variance based sensitivity measures, which also permit to capture interaction effects between individual predictors. The information is further used to develop more parsimonious downscaling models with only small decreases in accuracy. Individual predictors (without interactions) account for almost 2/3 of the total output variance, while the remaining fraction is solely due to interactions. Neglecting predictor interactions in the screening process will lead to some loss of information. Hence, linear screening methods are insufficient as they neither account for interactions nor for non-additivity as given by many nonlinear prediction algorithms.

Runoff production in a small agricultural catchment in Lao PDR: influence of slope, land-use and observation scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patin, J.; Ribolzi, O.; Mugler, C.; Valentin, C.; Mouche, E.

2010-12-01

After years of traditional slash and burn cultures, the Houay Pano catchment is now under high land pressures due to population resettling and environmental preservation policies. This evolution leads to rapid land-use changes in the uplands, such as fallow time reductions and growing of cash crops as teaks or banana. The catchment is located in the Luang Prabang province, in the north of Lao PDR and was selected in late 1998 as a benchmark site for the Managing Soil Erosion Consortium (MSEC). It is a small (60ha) agricultural catchment representative of the rural mountainous South East Asia : it exhibits steep cultivated slopes (from 2% to more than 110%) under a wet-dry monsoon climate. To understand the partition between runoff and infiltration, data from runoff on 20 plot experiments (1m2) under natural rainfall and with representative slopes and land uses is collected from 2003 to 2009. A simulated rainfall experiment was conducted in 2002 on bare soil plots (1m2) with different antecedent cultures. We investigate the role of crust, slope and land-use on runoff production at different scales. A model accounting for small scale variability is applied to compute the time and space variations of soil infiltrability at the plot scale (1m2) and sub-catchment scale (0.6ha). From the hypothesis of exponentially distributed infiltrabilities at the centimeter scale, we found that infiltration is log-normaly distributed over time for a given land use. The median infiltrability vary from 10mm/h under teak cultures to 150mm/h on plots with fallow. Variations along a year are tribute to many meteorological and human factors.

Organic geochemistry in Pennsylvanian tidally influenced sediments from SW Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastalerz, Maria; Kvale, E.P.; Stankiewicz, B.A.; Portle, K.

1999-01-01

Tidal rhythmites are vertically stacked small-scale sedimentary structures that record daily variations in tidal current energy and are known to overlie some low-sulfur coals in the Illinois Basin. Tidal rhythmites from the Pennsylvanian Brazil Formation in Indiana have been analyzed sedimentologically, petrographically, and geochemically in order to understand the character and distribution of organic matter (OM) preserved in an environment of daily interactions between marine and fresh waters. The concentration of organic matter (TOC) ranges from traces to 6.9% and sulfur rarely exceeds 0.1% in individual laminae. Angular vitrinite is the major organic matter type, accounting for 50-90% of total OM. The C/S ratio decreases as the verfical distance from the underlying coal increases. A decreasing C/S ratio coupled with decreases in Pr/Ph, Pr/n-C17, Ph/n-C18 ratios and a shift of carbon isotopic composition towards less negative values suggest an increase in salinity from freshwater in the mudflat tidal rhythmite facies close to the coal to brackish/marine in the sandflat tidal rhythmite facies further above from the coal. Within an interval spanning one year of deposition, TOC and S values show monthly variability. On a daily scale, TOC and S oscillations are still detectable but they are of lower magnitude than on a monthly scale. These small-scale variations are believed to reflect oscillations in water salinity related to tidal cycles.Tidal rhythmites are vertically stacked small-scale sedimentary structures that record daily variations in tidal current energy and are known to overlie some low-sulfur coals in the Illinois Basin. Tidal rhythmites from the Pennsylvanian Brazil Formation in Indiana have been analyzed sedimentologically, petrographically, and geochemically in order to understand the character and distribution of organic matter (OM) preserved in an environment of daily interactions between marine and fresh waters. The concentration of organic matter (TOC) ranges from traces to 6.9% and sulfur rarely exceeds 0.1% in individual laminae. Angular vitrinite is the major organic matter type, accounting for 50-90% of total OM. The C/S ratio decreases as the vertical distance from the underlying coal increases. A decreasing C/S ratio coupled with decreases in Pr/Ph, Pr/n-C17, Ph/n-C18 ratios and a shift of carbon isotopic composition towards less negative values suggest an increase in salinity from freshwater in the mudflat tidal rhythmite facies close to the coal to brackish/marine in the sandflat tidal rhythmite facies further above from the coal. Within an interval spanning one year of deposition, TOC and S values show monthly variability. On a daily scale, TOC and S oscillations are still detectable but they are of lower magnitude than on a monthly scale. These small-scale variations are believed to reflect oscillations in water salinity related to tidal cycles.

Students' attitudes towards mathematics in single-sex and coeducational schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Stephen J.; Rennie, Léonie J.

1998-04-01

This paper examines students' attitudes towards mathematics at the secondary school level. Using five of the Fennema-Sherman scales, the attitudes of boys and girls in Grades 8 to 12 in four schools were compared: a single-sex boys' and a single-sex girls' private school, and a state and a private coeducational school. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to guide an exploration of how students' attitudes varied according to grade, sex and educational setting. There were no differences between students in the two coeducational schools. In general, students' attitudes were found to be less positive in more senior grades; and overall, boys had more positive attitudes than girls. There were clear differences between boys and girls on the Mathematics as a Male Domain scale, with girls being less stereotyped in their perceptions than boys. Except for this scale, effects related to the sex of the student were small, and effects relating to grade level and school type on all variables were also small. Implications are drawn for future research in this area.

Magnetorotational Turbulence and Dynamo in a Collisionless Plasma.

PubMed

Kunz, Matthew W; Stone, James M; Quataert, Eliot

2016-12-02

We present results from the first 3D kinetic numerical simulation of magnetorotational turbulence and dynamo, using the local shearing-box model of a collisionless accretion disk. The kinetic magnetorotational instability grows from a subthermal magnetic field having zero net flux over the computational domain to generate self-sustained turbulence and outward angular-momentum transport. Significant Maxwell and Reynolds stresses are accompanied by comparable viscous stresses produced by field-aligned ion pressure anisotropy, which is regulated primarily by the mirror and ion-cyclotron instabilities through particle trapping and pitch-angle scattering. The latter endow the plasma with an effective viscosity that is biased with respect to the magnetic-field direction and spatiotemporally variable. Energy spectra suggest an Alfvén-wave cascade at large scales and a kinetic-Alfvén-wave cascade at small scales, with strong small-scale density fluctuations and weak nonaxisymmetric density waves. Ions undergo nonthermal particle acceleration, their distribution accurately described by a κ distribution. These results have implications for the properties of low-collisionality accretion flows, such as that near the black hole at the Galactic center.

Scaling water and energy fluxes in climate systems - Three land-atmospheric modeling experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.; Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1993-01-01

Three numerical experiments that investigate the scaling of land-surface processes - either of the inputs or parameters - are reported, and the aggregated processes are compared to the spatially variable case. The first is the aggregation of the hydrologic response in a catchment due to rainfall during a storm event and due to evaporative demands during interstorm periods. The second is the spatial and temporal aggregation of latent heat fluxes, as calculated from SiB. The third is the aggregation of remotely sensed land vegetation and latent and sensible heat fluxes using TM data from the FIFE experiment of 1987 in Kansas. In all three experiments it was found that the surface fluxes and land characteristics can be scaled, and that macroscale models based on effective parameters are sufficient to account for the small-scale heterogeneities investigated.

National Earthquake Information Center Seismic Event Detections on Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, J.; Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Johnson, C. E.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors seismicity on local, regional, and global scales using automatic picks from more than 2,000 near-real time seismic stations. This presents unique challenges in automated event detection due to the high variability in data quality, network geometries and density, and distance-dependent variability in observed seismic signals. To lower the overall detection threshold while minimizing false detection rates, NEIC has begun to test the incorporation of new detection and picking algorithms, including multiband (Lomax et al., 2012) and kurtosis (Baillard et al., 2014) pickers, and a new bayesian associator (Glass 3.0). The Glass 3.0 associator allows for simultaneous processing of variably scaled detection grids, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation threshold, minimum associated picks, nucleation phases) to meet specific monitoring goals. We test the efficacy of these new tools on event detection in networks of various scales and geometries, compare our results with previous catalogs, and discuss lessons learned. For example, we find that on local and regional scales, rapid nucleation of small events may require event nucleation with both P and higher-amplitude secondary phases (e.g., S or Lg). We provide examples of the implementation of a scale-independent associator for an induced seismicity sequence (local-scale), a large aftershock sequence (regional-scale), and for monitoring global seismicity. Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., & Mangeney, A. (2014). An automatic kurtosis-based P-and S-phase picker designed for local seismic networks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 394-409. Lomax, A., Satriano, C., & Vassallo, M. (2012). Automatic picker developments and optimization: FilterPicker - a robust, broadband picker for real-time seismic monitoring and earthquake early-warning, Seism. Res. Lett. , 83, 531-540, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.3.531.

A multi-scale modelling procedure to quantify hydrological impacts of upland land management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.; Jackson, B.; Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Frogbrook, Z.; Solloway, I.; Reynolds, B.

2008-12-01

Recent UK floods have focused attention on the effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. However, quantification of these effects raises important methodological issues. Catchment-scale data have proved inadequate to support analysis of impacts of land management change, due to climate variability, uncertainty in input and output data, spatial heterogeneity in land use and lack of data to quantify historical changes in management practices. Manipulation experiments to quantify the impacts of land management change have necessarily been limited and small scale, and in the UK mainly focused on the lowlands and arable agriculture. There is a need to develop methods to extrapolate from small scale observations to predict catchment-scale response, and to quantify impacts for upland areas. With assistance from a cooperative of Welsh farmers, a multi-scale experimental programme has been established at Pontbren, in mid-Wales, an area of intensive sheep production. The data have been used to support development of a multi-scale modelling methodology to assess impacts of agricultural intensification and the potential for mitigation of flood risk through land use management. Data are available from replicated experimental plots under different land management treatments, from instrumented field and hillslope sites, including tree shelter belts, and from first and second order catchments. Measurements include climate variables, soil water states and hydraulic properties at multiple depths and locations, tree interception, overland flow and drainflow, groundwater levels, and streamflow from multiple locations. Fine resolution physics-based models have been developed to represent soil and runoff processes, conditioned using experimental data. The detailed models are used to calibrate simpler 'meta- models' to represent individual hydrological elements, which are then combined in a semi-distributed catchment-scale model. The methodology is illustrated using field and catchment-scale simulations to demonstrate the the response of improved and unimproved grassland, and the potential effects of land management interventions, including farm ponds, tree shelter belts and buffer strips. It is concluded that the methodology developed has the potential to represent and quantify catchment-scale effects of upland management; continuing research is extending the work to a wider range of upland environments and land use types, with the aim of providing generic simulation tools that can be used to provide strategic policy guidance.

Small-scale spatial variability of sperm and sei whales in relation to oceanographic and topographic features along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skov, H.; Gunnlaugsson, T.; Budgell, W. P.; Horne, J.; Nøttestad, L.; Olsen, E.; Søiland, H.; Víkingsson, G.; Waring, G.

2008-01-01

The 2004 Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR)-ECO expedition on the R.V. G.O. Sars provided the first opportunity to correlate oceanic distributions of cetaceans with synoptic acoustic (ADCP to 700 m depth, multi-beam echosounders) measurements of high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) potential habitat (spatial scale<100 km). The identified habitat features were tested with independent observations from the Icelandic combined cetacean and redfish cruises in 2001 and 2003 using data from a 3D ocean general circulation model of the MAR region (Regional Oceans Modelling System (ROMS) model 5 km resolution). The spatial autocorrelation of sampled encounter rates of sperm Physeter macrocephalus and sei whales Balaenoptera borealis indicated scale-dependent variability in the distribution of both species. Despite the large area surveyed, the observations of both species exhibited a strong small-scale structure (range parameter 20-50 km), indicating affinities to cross-seamount or cross-frontal structures. Potential cross-seamount and cross-frontal habitat structures were derived from the acoustic transect data by analysing fine-scale gradients in the 3D flow patterns and bathymetry, including interactions between frontal and topographic parameters. PLS regression was used to determine the potential habitat drivers of sperm and sei whales, both during the G.O. Sars cruise and during the Icelandic cruises in 2001 and 2003. The selected parameters, which reflected flow gradients interacting with the steep topography, were finally applied for modelling the habitat suitability of both target species along the northern MAR using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. The results suggest aggregations of sperm and sei whales along the MAR are primarily associated with fine-scale frontal processes interacting with the topography in the upper 100 m of the water column just north of the Sub-Polar Front (SPF) and the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ). As moderate and high habitat suitabilities were estimated only for areas downstream from the SPF, the findings suggest that the animals capitalise on secondary production maintained by enhanced primary production associated with the frontal processes in the upper part of the water column in the CGFZ and at the Faraday Seamounts. Further studies are encouraged to evaluate the importance of the bio-physical coupling, and the significance of small-scale frontal processes in the surface and subsurface waters north of the SPF for the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels in the North Atlantic.

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Electrodynamics of the middle atmosphere: Superpressure balloon program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holzworth, Robert H.

1987-01-01

In this experiment a comprehensive set of electrical parameters were measured during eight long duration flights in the southern hemisphere stratosphere. These flight resulted in the largest data set ever collected from the stratosphere. The stratosphere has never been electrodynamically sampled in the systematic manner before. New discoveries include short term variability in the planetary scale electric current system, the unexpected observation of stratospheric conductivity variations over thunderstorms and the observation of direct stratospheric conductivity variations following a relatively small solar flare. Major statistical studies were conducted of the large scale current systems, the stratospheric conductivity and the neutral gravity waves (from pressure and temperature data) using the entire data set.

Metabolic Profile and Inflammatory Responses in Dairy Cows with Left Displaced Abomasum Kept under Small-Scaled Farm Conditions

PubMed Central

Klevenhusen, Fenja; Humer, Elke; Metzler-Zebeli, Barbara; Podstatzky-Lichtenstein, Leopold; Wittek, Thomas; Zebeli, Qendrim

2015-01-01

Simple Summary This research established an association between lactation number and milk production and metabolic and inflammatory responses in high-producing dairy cows affected by left abomasal displacement in small-scaled dairy farms. The study showed metabolic alterations, liver damage, and inflammation in the sick cows, which were further exacerbated with increasing lactation number and milk yield of the cows. Abstract Left displaced abomasum (LDA) is a severe metabolic disease of cattle with a strong negative impact on production efficiency of dairy farms. Metabolic and inflammatory alterations associated with this disease have been reported in earlier studies, conducted mostly in large dairy farms. This research aimed to: (1) evaluate metabolic and inflammatory responses in dairy cows affected by LDA in small-scaled dairy farms; and (2) establish an association between lactation number and milk production with the outcome of metabolic variables. The cows with LDA had lower serum calcium (Ca), but greater concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and beta-hydroxy-butyrate (BHBA), in particular when lactation number was >2. Cows with LDA showed elevated levels of aspartate aminotransferase, glutamate dehydrogenase, and serum amyloid A (SAA), regardless of lactation number. In addition, this study revealed strong associations between milk yield and the alteration of metabolic profile but not with inflammation in the sick cows. Results indicate metabolic alterations, liver damage, and inflammation in LDA cows kept under small-scale farm conditions. Furthermore, the data suggest exacerbation of metabolic profile and Ca metabolism but not of inflammation and liver health with increasing lactation number and milk yield in cows affected by LDA. PMID:26479481

How and Why Does Stream Water Temperature Vary at Small Spatial Scales in a Headwater Stream?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. C.; Gannon, J. P.; Kelleher, C.

2017-12-01

The temperature of stream water is controlled by climatic variables, runoff/baseflow generation, and hyporheic exchange. Hydrologic conditions such as gaining/losing reaches and sources of inflow can vary dramatically along a stream on a small spatial scale. In this work, we attempt to discern the extent that the factors of air temperature, groundwater inflow, and precipitation influence stream temperature at small spatial scales along the length of a stream. To address this question, we measured stream temperature along the perennial stream network in a 43 ha catchment with a complex land use history in Cullowhee, NC. Two water temperature sensors were placed along the stream network on opposite sides of the stream at 100-meter intervals and at several locations of interest (i.e. stream junctions). The forty total sensors recorded the temperature every 10 minutes for one month in the spring and one month in the summer. A subset of sampling locations where stream temperature was consistent or varied from one side of the stream to the other were explored with a thermal imaging camera to obtain a more detailed representation of the spatial variation in temperature at those sites. These thermal surveys were compared with descriptions of the contributing area at the sample sites in an effort to discern specific causes of differing flow paths. Preliminary results suggest that on some branches of the stream stormflow has less influence than regular hyporheic exchange, while other tributaries can change dramatically with stormflow conditions. We anticipate this work will lead to a better understanding of temperature patterns in stream water networks. A better understanding of the importance of small-scale differences in flow paths to water temperature may be able to inform watershed management decisions in the future.

Health impact assessment of traffic-related air pollution at the urban project scale: influence of variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Chart-Asa, Chidsanuphong; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2015-02-15

This paper develops and then demonstrates a new approach for quantifying health impacts of traffic-related particulate matter air pollution at the urban project scale that includes variability and uncertainty in the analysis. We focus on primary particulate matter having a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The new approach accounts for variability in vehicle emissions due to temperature, road grade, and traffic behavior variability; seasonal variability in concentration-response coefficients; demographic variability at a fine spatial scale; uncertainty in air quality model accuracy; and uncertainty in concentration-response coefficients. We demonstrate the approach for a case study roadway corridor with a population of 16,000, where a new extension of the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill campus is slated for construction. The results indicate that at this case study site, health impact estimates increased by factors of 4-9, depending on the health impact considered, compared to using a conventional health impact assessment approach that overlooks these variability and uncertainty sources. In addition, we demonstrate how the method can be used to assess health disparities. For example, in the case study corridor, our method demonstrates the existence of statistically significant racial disparities in exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 under present-day traffic conditions: the correlation between percent black and annual attributable deaths in each census block is 0.37 (t(114)=4.2, p<0.0001). Overall, our results show that the proposed new campus will cause only a small incremental increase in health risks (annual risk 6×10(-10); lifetime risk 4×10(-8)), compared to if the campus is not built. Nonetheless, the approach we illustrate could be useful for improving the quality of information to support decision-making for other urban development projects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-04-01

Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

Spatial variability of sediment transport processes over intra‐ and subtidal timescales within a fringing coral reef system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pomeroy, Andrew; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ghisalberti, Marco; Winter, Gundula; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Cuttler, Michael V. W.

2018-01-01

Sediment produced on fringing coral reefs that is transported along the bed or in suspension affects ecological reef communities as well as the morphological development of the reef, lagoon, and adjacent shoreline. This study quantified the physical process contribution and relative importance of incident waves, infragravity waves, and mean currents to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment in suspension. Estimates of bed shear stresses demonstrate that incident waves are the key driver of the SSC variability spatially (reef flat, lagoon, and channels) but cannot not fully describe the SSC variability alone. The comparatively small but statistically significant contribution to the bed shear stress by infragravity waves and currents, along with the spatial availability of sediment of a suitable size and volume, is also important. Although intra‐tidal variability in SSC occurs in the different reef zones, the majority of the variability occurs over longer slowly varying (subtidal) time scales, which is related to the arrival of large incident waves at a reef location. The predominant flow pathway, which can transport suspended sediment, consists of cross‐reef flow across the reef flat that diverges in the lagoon and returns offshore through channels. This pathway is primarily due to subtidal variations in wave‐driven flows, but can also be driven alongshore by wind stresses when the incident waves are small. Higher frequency (intra‐tidal) current variability also occur due to both tidal flows, as well as variations in the water depth that influence wave transmission across the reef and wave‐driven currents.

Using Small Drone (UAS) Imagery to Bridge the Gap Between Field- and Satellite-Based Measurements of Vegetation Structure and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. T.; Estes, L. D.; Gago, X.; Debats, S. R.; Caylor, K. K.; Manfreda, S.; Oudemans, P.; Ciraolo, G.; Maltese, A.; Nadal, M.; Estrany, J.

2016-12-01

Leaf area is an important ecosystem variable that relates to vegetation biomass, productivity, water and nutrient use in natural and agricultural systems globally. Since the 1980s, optical satellite image-based estimates of leaf area based on indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have greatly improved understanding of vegetation structure, function, and responses to disturbance at landscape (10^3 km2) to continental (10^6 km2) spatial scales. However, at landscape scales, satellites have failed to capture many leaf area patterns indicative of vegetation succession, crop types, stress and other conditions important for ecological processes. Small drones (UAS - unmanned aerial systems) offer new means for assessing leaf area and vegetation structure at higher spatial resolutions (<1 m) and land cover features such as substrate exposure that may affect estimates of vegetation structure in satellite data. Yet it is unclear how differences in spatial and spectral resolution between UAS and satellite data affect their relationships to each other, and to common field measurements of leaf area (e.g. LiCOR photosensors) and land cover. Constraining these relationships is important for leveraging UAS data to improve scaling of field data on leaf area and biomass to satellite data from Landsat, Sentinel-2, and increasing numbers of commercial sensors. Here, we quantify relationships among field, UAS and satellite estimates of vegetation leaf area and biomass in three case study landscapes spanning semi-arid Mediterranean (Matera, Southern Italy and Mallorca, Spain) and North American temperate ecosystems (New Jersey, USA). We assess how land cover and sensor spectral characteristics affect UAS and satellite-derived NDVI, leaf-area and biomass estimates. Then, we assess the fidelity of UAS, WorldView-2, and Landsat leaf-area and biomass estimates to field-measured landscape changes and variability, including vegetation recovery from fire (Mallorca), and leaf-area and biomass variability due to orchard type and agro-ecosystem management (Matera, New Jersey). Finally, we highlight promising ways forward for improving field data collection and the use of UAS observations to monitor vegetation leaf-area and biomass change at landscape scales in natural and agricultural systems.

Small-scale spatial variability of soil microbial community composition and functional diversity in a mixed forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiufeng; Tian, Jing; Yu, Guirui

2014-05-01

Patterns in the spatial distribution of organisms provide important information about mechanisms that regulate the diversity and complexity of soil ecosystems. Therefore, information on spatial distribution of microbial community composition and functional diversity is urgently necessary. The spatial variability on a 26×36 m plot and vertical distribution (0-10 cm and 10-20 cm) of soil microbial community composition and functional diversity were studied in a natural broad-leaved Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) mixed forest soil in Changbai Mountain. The phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) pattern was used to characterize the soil microbial community composition and was compared with the community substrate utilization pattern using Biolog. Bacterial biomass dominated and showed higher variability than fungal biomass at all scales examined. The microbial biomass decreased with soil depths increased and showed less variability in lower 10-20 cm soil layer. The Shannon-Weaver index value for microbial functional diversity showed higher variability in upper 0-10 cm than lower 10-20 cm soil layer. Carbohydrates, carboxylic acids, polymers and amino acids are the main carbon sources possessing higher utilization efficiency or utilization intensity. At the same time, the four carbon source types contributed to the differentiation of soil microbial communities. This study suggests the higher diversity and complexity for this mix forest ecosystem. To determine the driving factors that affect this spatial variability of microorganism is the next step for our study.

Is Ground Cover Vegetation an Effective Biological Control Enhancement Strategy against Olive Pests?

PubMed Central

Paredes, Daniel; Cayuela, Luis; Gurr, Geoff M.; Campos, Mercedes

2015-01-01

Ground cover vegetation is often added or allowed to generate to promote conservation biological control, especially in perennial crops. Nevertheless, there is inconsistent evidence of its effectiveness, with studies reporting positive, nil or negative effects on pest control. This might arise from differences between studies at the local scale (e.g. orchard management and land use history), the landscape context (e.g. presence of patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation near the focal orchard), or regional factors, particularly climate in the year of the study. Here we present the findings from a long-term regional monitoring program conducted on four pest species (Bactrocera oleae, Prays oleae, Euphyllura olivina, Saissetia oleae) in 2,528 olive groves in Andalusia (Spain) from 2006 to 2012. Generalized linear mixed effect models were used to analyze the effect of ground cover on different response variables related to pest abundance, while accounting for variability at the local, landscape and regional scales. There were small and inconsistent effects of ground cover on the abundance of pests whilst local, landscape and regional variability explained a large proportion of the variability in pest response variables. This highlights the importance of local and landscape-related variables in biological control and the potential effects that might emerge from their interaction with practices, such as groundcover vegetation, implemented to promote natural enemy activity. The study points to perennial vegetation close to the focal crop as a promising alternative strategy for conservation biological control that should receive more attention. PMID:25646778

A Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope (MVP-SEM) for In-Situ Mars Surface Sample Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmunson, J.; Gaskin, J. A.; Jerman, G. A.; Harvey, R. P.; Doloboff, I. J.; Neidholdt, E. L.

2016-01-01

The Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope (MVP-SEM) project, funded by the NASA Planetary Instrument Concepts for the Advancement of Solar System Observations (PICASSO) Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES), will build upon previous miniaturized SEM designs and recent advancements in variable pressure SEM's to design and build a SEM to complete analyses of samples on the surface of Mars using the atmosphere as an imaging medium. This project is a collaboration between NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), electron gun and optics manufacturer Applied Physics Technologies, and small vacuum system manufacturer Creare. Dr. Ralph Harvery and environmental SEM (ESEM) inventor Dr. Gerry Danilatos serve as advisors to the team. Variable pressure SEMs allow for fine (nm-scale) resolution imaging and micron-scale chemical study of materials without sample preparation (e.g., carbon or gold coating). Charging of a sample is reduced or eliminated by the gas surrounding the sample. It is this property of ESEMs that make them ideal for locations where sample preparation is not yet feasible, such as the surface of Mars. In addition, the lack of sample preparation needed here will simplify the sample acquisition process and allow caching of the samples for future complementary payload use.

Variability of and Factors Controlling Precipitation Production in Shallow Cumulus - Results from the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, E. P.; Kollias, P.

2016-12-01

Shallow cumulus clouds are by far the most frequently observed cloud type over the Earth's oceans and frequently produce warm rain. However, quantitative rainfall estimates from these clouds are challenging to acquire from satellites due to their small horizontal scale. Here, two years of observations from the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site located on Graciosa Island in the Azores are used to characterize the frequency, intensity, and fractional coverage of shallow cumulus precipitation. The analyzed dataset is the most comprehensive of its type, considering both its temporal extent and the sophistication of the ground-based observations. The precipitation rate at the base of shallow cumulus is estimated using combined radar-lidar observations and the rain retrievals are compared to the rainfall measurements available at the ground by optical disdrometers. Using synergy between surfaced-based observations of aerosols and thermodynamic soundings, the vertical structure of the Marine Boundary Layer and the temporal variability of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration are determined. The observed variability in shallow cumulus precipitation is examined in relation to the variability of the large-scale environment as captured by the humidity profile, the magnitude of the low-level horizontal winds and aerosol loading.

Characterizing spatial and temporal variability in methane gas-flux dynamics of subtropical wetlands in the Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirianni, M.; Comas, X.; Shoemaker, B.

2017-12-01

Wetland methane emissions are highly variable both in space and time, and are controlled by changes in certain biogeochemical controls (i.e. organic matter availability; redox potential) and/or other environmental factors (i.e. soil temperature; water level). Consequently, hot spots (areas with disproportionally high emissions) may develop where biogeochemical and environmental conditions are especially conducive for enhancing certain microbial processes such as methanogenesis. The Big Cypress National Preserve is a collection of subtropical wetlands in southwestern Florida, including extensive forested (cypress, pine, hardwood) and sawgrass ecosystems that dry and flood annually in response to rainfall. In addition to rainfall, hydroperiod, fire regime, elevation above mean sea level, dominant vegetation type and underlying geological controls contribute to the development and evolution of organic and calcitic soils found throughout the Preserve. Currently, the U.S. Geological Survey employs eddy covariance methods within the Preserve to quantify carbon and methane exchanges over several spatially extensive vegetation communities. While eddy covariance towers are a convenient tool for measuring gas exchanges at the ecosystem scale, their spatially extensive footprint (hundreds of meters) may mask smaller scale spatial variabilities that may be conducive to the development of hot spots. Similarly, temporal resolution (i.e. sampling effort) at scales smaller that the eddy covariance measurement footprint is important since low resolution data may overlook rapid emission events and the temporal variability of discrete hot spots. In this work, we intend to estimate small-scale contributions of organic and calcitic soils to gas exchanges measured by the eddy covariance towers using a unique combination of ground penetrating radar (GPR), capacitance probes, gas traps, and time-lapse photography. By using an array of methods that vary in spatio-temporal resolution, we hope to better understand the uncertainties associated with measuring wetland methane fluxes across different spatial and temporal scales. Our results have implications for characterizing and refining methane flux estimates in subtropical peat soils that could be used for climate models.

Modeling spatially-varying landscape change points in species occurrence thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Midway, Stephen R.

2014-01-01

Predicting species distributions at scales of regions to continents is often necessary, as large-scale phenomena influence the distributions of spatially structured populations. Land use and land cover are important large-scale drivers of species distributions, and landscapes are known to create species occurrence thresholds, where small changes in a landscape characteristic results in abrupt changes in occurrence. The value of the landscape characteristic at which this change occurs is referred to as a change point. We present a hierarchical Bayesian threshold model (HBTM) that allows for estimating spatially varying parameters, including change points. Our model also allows for modeling estimated parameters in an effort to understand large-scale drivers of variability in land use and land cover on species occurrence thresholds. We use range-wide detection/nondetection data for the eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a stream-dwelling salmonid, to illustrate our HBTM for estimating and modeling spatially varying threshold parameters in species occurrence. We parameterized the model for investigating thresholds in landscape predictor variables that are measured as proportions, and which are therefore restricted to values between 0 and 1. Our HBTM estimated spatially varying thresholds in brook trout occurrence for both the proportion agricultural and urban land uses. There was relatively little spatial variation in change point estimates, although there was spatial variability in the overall shape of the threshold response and associated uncertainty. In addition, regional mean stream water temperature was correlated to the change point parameters for the proportion of urban land use, with the change point value increasing with increasing mean stream water temperature. We present a framework for quantify macrosystem variability in spatially varying threshold model parameters in relation to important large-scale drivers such as land use and land cover. Although the model presented is a logistic HBTM, it can easily be extended to accommodate other statistical distributions for modeling species richness or abundance.

Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV) processing speed scores as measures of noncredible responding: The third generation of embedded performance validity indicators.

PubMed

Erdodi, Laszlo A; Abeare, Christopher A; Lichtenstein, Jonathan D; Tyson, Bradley T; Kucharski, Brittany; Zuccato, Brandon G; Roth, Robert M

2017-02-01

Research suggests that select processing speed measures can also serve as embedded validity indicators (EVIs). The present study examined the diagnostic utility of Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV) subtests as EVIs in a mixed clinical sample of 205 patients medically referred for neuropsychological assessment (53.3% female, mean age = 45.1). Classification accuracy was calculated against 3 composite measures of performance validity as criterion variables. A PSI ≤79 produced a good combination of sensitivity (.23-.56) and specificity (.92-.98). A Coding scaled score ≤5 resulted in good specificity (.94-1.00), but low and variable sensitivity (.04-.28). A Symbol Search scaled score ≤6 achieved a good balance between sensitivity (.38-.64) and specificity (.88-.93). A Coding-Symbol Search scaled score difference ≥5 produced adequate specificity (.89-.91) but consistently low sensitivity (.08-.12). A 2-tailed cutoff on the Coding/Symbol Search raw score ratio (≤1.41 or ≥3.57) produced acceptable specificity (.87-.93), but low sensitivity (.15-.24). Failing ≥2 of these EVIs produced variable specificity (.81-.93) and sensitivity (.31-.59). Failing ≥3 of these EVIs stabilized specificity (.89-.94) at a small cost to sensitivity (.23-.53). Results suggest that processing speed based EVIs have the potential to provide a cost-effective and expedient method for evaluating the validity of cognitive data. Given their generally low and variable sensitivity, however, they should not be used in isolation to determine the credibility of a given response set. They also produced unacceptably high rates of false positive errors in patients with moderate-to-severe head injury. Combining evidence from multiple EVIs has the potential to improve overall classification accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Separating the effects of environment and space on tree species distribution: from population to community.

PubMed

Lin, Guojun; Stralberg, Diana; Gong, Guiquan; Huang, Zhongliang; Ye, Wanhui; Wu, Linfang

2013-01-01

Quantifying the relative contributions of environmental conditions and spatial factors to species distribution can help improve our understanding of the processes that drive diversity patterns. In this study, based on tree inventory, topography and soil data from a 20-ha stem-mapped permanent forest plot in Guangdong Province, China, we evaluated the influence of different ecological processes at different spatial scales using canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) at the community level and multiple linear regression at the species level. At the community level, the proportion of explained variation in species distribution increased with grid-cell sizes, primarily due to a monotonic increase in the explanatory power of environmental variables. At the species level, neither environmental nor spatial factors were important determinants of overstory species' distributions at small cell sizes. However, purely spatial variables explained most of the variation in the distributions of understory species at fine and intermediate cell sizes. Midstory species showed patterns that were intermediate between those of overstory and understory species. At the 20-m cell size, the influence of spatial factors was stronger for more dispersal-limited species, suggesting that much of the spatial structuring in this community can be explained by dispersal limitation. Comparing environmental factors, soil variables had higher explanatory power than did topography for species distribution. However, both topographic and edaphic variables were highly spatial structured. Our results suggested that dispersal limitation has an important influence on fine-intermediate scale (from several to tens of meters) species distribution, while environmental variability facilitates species distribution at intermediate (from ten to tens of meters) and broad (from tens to hundreds of meters) scales.

The trajectory of life. Decreasing physiological network complexity through changing fractal patterns

PubMed Central

Sturmberg, Joachim P.; Bennett, Jeanette M.; Picard, Martin; Seely, Andrew J. E.

2015-01-01

In this position paper, we submit a synthesis of theoretical models based on physiology, non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and non-linear time-series analysis. Based on an understanding of the human organism as a system of interconnected complex adaptive systems, we seek to examine the relationship between health, complexity, variability, and entropy production, as it might be useful to help understand aging, and improve care for patients. We observe the trajectory of life is characterized by the growth, plateauing and subsequent loss of adaptive function of organ systems, associated with loss of functioning and coordination of systems. Understanding development and aging requires the examination of interdependence among these organ systems. Increasing evidence suggests network interconnectedness and complexity can be captured/measured/associated with the degree and complexity of healthy biologic rhythm variability (e.g., heart and respiratory rate variability). We review physiological mechanisms linking the omics, arousal/stress systems, immune function, and mitochondrial bioenergetics; highlighting their interdependence in normal physiological function and aging. We argue that aging, known to be characterized by a loss of variability, is manifested at multiple scales, within functional units at the small scale, and reflected by diagnostic features at the larger scale. While still controversial and under investigation, it appears conceivable that the integrity of whole body complexity may be, at least partially, reflected in the degree and variability of intrinsic biologic rhythms, which we believe are related to overall system complexity that may be a defining feature of health and it's loss through aging. Harnessing this information for the development of therapeutic and preventative strategies may hold an opportunity to significantly improve the health of our patients across the trajectory of life. PMID:26082722

Investigating the Variability in Cumulus Cloud Number as a Function of Subdomain Size and Organization using large-domain LES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neggers, R.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in supercomputing have introduced a "grey zone" in the representation of cumulus convection in general circulation models, in which this process is partially resolved. Cumulus parameterizations need to be made scale-aware and scale-adaptive to be able to conceptually and practically deal with this situation. A potential way forward are schemes formulated in terms of discretized Cloud Size Densities, or CSDs. Advantages include i) the introduction of scale-awareness at the foundation of the scheme, and ii) the possibility to apply size-filtering of parameterized convective transport and clouds. The CSD is a new variable that requires closure; this concerns its shape, its range, but also variability in cloud number that can appear due to i) subsampling effects and ii) organization in a cloud field. The goal of this study is to gain insight by means of sub-domain analyses of various large-domain LES realizations of cumulus cloud populations. For a series of three-dimensional snapshots, each with a different degree of organization, the cloud size distribution is calculated in all subdomains, for a range of subdomain sizes. The standard deviation of the number of clouds of a certain size is found to decrease with the subdomain size, following a powerlaw scaling corresponding to an inverse-linear dependence. Cloud number variability also increases with cloud size; this reflects that subsampling affects the largest clouds first, due to their typically larger neighbor spacing. Rewriting this dependence in terms of two dimensionless groups, by dividing by cloud number and cloud size respectively, yields a data collapse. Organization in the cloud field is found to act on top of this primary dependence, by enhancing the cloud number variability at the smaller sizes. This behavior reflects that small clouds start to "live" on top of larger structures such as cold pools, favoring or inhibiting their formation (as illustrated by the attached figure of cloud mask). Powerlaw scaling is still evident, but with a reduced exponent, suggesting that this behavior could be parameterized.

Work Ability Index (WAI) and its health-related determinants among Iranian farmers working in small farm enterprises.

PubMed

Rostamabadi, Akbar; Mazloumi, Adel; Rahimi Foroushani, Abbas

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the Work Ability Index (WAI) and examine the influence of health dimensions and demographic variables on the work ability of Iranian farmers working in small farm enterprises. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 294 male farmers. The WAI and SF-36 questionnaires were used to determine work ability and health status. The effect of demographics variables on the work ability index was investigated with the independent samples t-test and one-way ANOVA. Also, multiple linear regression analysis was used to test the association between the mean WAI score and the SF-36 scales. The mean WAI score was 35.1 (SD=10.6). One-way ANOVA revealed a significant relationship between the mean WAI and age. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that work ability was more influenced by physical scales of the health dimensions, such as physical function, role-physical, and general health, whereas a lower association was found for mental scales such as mental health. The average WAI was at a moderate work ability level for the sample population of farmers in this study. Based on the WAI guidelines, improvement of work ability and identification of factors affecting it should be considered a priority in interventional programs. Given the influence of health dimensions on WAI, any intervention program for preservation and promotion of work ability among the studied farmers should be based on balancing and optimizing the physical and psychosocial work environments, with a special focus on reducing physical work load.(J Occup Health 2014; 56: 478-484).

Validation of the urinary sensation scale (USS).

PubMed

Coyne, Karin S; Margolis, Mary Kay; Hsieh, Ray; Vats, Vasudha; Chapple, Christopher R

2011-03-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of the Urinary Sensation Scale (USS) in men with overactive bladder and voiding symptoms (OAB-LUTS) and women with overactive bladder (OAB). Data from two OAB clinical trials of tolterodine were used. The USS, a 5-point scale, assesses the amount of urinary urgency associated with each urination. Three methods to calculate the USS are: mean urgency (Mean USS); mode urgency (Mode USS); and sum urgency (sum USS). The validity and responsiveness of the scoring methods was assessed using Spearman's correlations, general linear models, and effect sizes. Data from 650 men (Study 1) and 413 women (Study 2) were analyzed. Mean age was 65.2 (men) and 47.8 (women); 70% were Caucasian in both studies. Correlations of USS scores with bladder diary variables were small to moderate and higher among Sum USS than Mean USS (r=0.02-0.64). Correlations among the USS and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were again small to moderate and higher with Sum USS (r=0.05-0.41). Both the Mean USS and Sum USS significantly discriminated (all P<0.001) among all bladder diary variables (except nocturia and UUI in men) when grouped as improved/not improved as well as by the PROs. Effect sizes for men and women, respectively, were -0.52 and -1.09 for Mean USS and -0.72 and -1.36 for Sum USS. The USS is a valid and highly responsive measure of urinary urgency in men with OAB-LUTS and women with OAB. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

2017-12-01

Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in Ethiopia, but that also intersects with energy and water consumption. Here, we focus on the energy usage for small-scale irrigation and the collective impact on crop production and water resources across zones in the MME model.

Biological mechanisms supporting adaptation to ocean acidification in coastal ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendriks, Iris E.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Olsen, Ylva S.; Steckbauer, Alexandra; Ramajo, Laura; Moore, Tommy S.; Trotter, Julie A.; McCulloch, Malcolm

2015-01-01

The direct influence of anthropogenic CO2 might play a limited role in pH regulation in coastal ecosystems as pH regulation in these areas can be complex. They experience large variability across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, with complex external and internal drivers. Organisms influence pH at a patch scale, where community metabolic effects and hydrodynamic processes interact to produce broad ranges in pH, (˜0.3-0.5 pH units) over daily cycles and spatial scales (mm to m) particularly in shallow vegetated habitats and coral reefs where both respiration and photosynthetic activity are intense. Biological interactions at the ecosystem scale, linked to patchiness in habitat landscapes and seasonal changes in metabolic processes and temperature lead to changes of about 0.3-0.5 pH units throughout a year. Furthermore, on the scale of individual organisms, small-scale processes including changes at the Diffusive Boundary Layer (DBL), interactions with symbionts, and changes to the specific calcification environment, induce additional changes in excess of 0.5 pH units. In these highly variable pH environments calcifying organisms have developed the capacity to alter the pH of their calcifying environment, or specifically within critical tissues where calcification occurs, thus achieving a homeostasis. This capacity to control the conditions for calcification at the organism scale may therefore buffer the full impacts of ocean acidification on an organism scale, although this might be at a cost to the individual. Furthermore, in some areas, calcifiers may potentially benefit from changes to ambient seawater pH, where photosynthetic organisms drawdown CO2.

What Actually Happens When Granular Materials Deform Under Shear: A Look Within

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viggiani, C.

2012-12-01

We all know that geomaterials (soil and rock) are composed of particles. However, when dealing with them, we often use continuum models, which ignore particles and make use of abstract variables such stress and strain. Continuum mechanics is the classical tool that geotechnical engineers have always used for their everyday calculations: estimating settlements of an embankment, the deformation of a sheet pile wall, the stability of a dam or a foundation, etc. History tells us that, in general, this works fine. While we are happily ignoring particles, they will at times come back to haunt us. This happens when deformation is localized in regions so small that the detail of the soil's (or rock's) particular structure cannot safely be ignored. Failure is the perfect example of this. Researchers in geomechanics (and more generally in solid mechanics) have long since known that all classical continuum models typically break down when trying to model failure. All sorts of numerical troubles ensue - all of them pointing to a fundamental deficiency of the model: the lack of microstructure. N.B.: the term microstructure doesn't prescribe a dimension (e.g., microns), but rather a scale - the scale of the mechanisms responsible for failure. A possible remedy to this deficiency is represented by the so-called "double scale" models, in which the small scale (the microstructure) is explicitly taken into account. Typically, two numerical problems are defined and solved - one at the large (continuum) scale, and the other at the small scale. This sort of approach requires a link between the two scales, to complete the picture. Imagine we are solving at the small scale a simulation of an assembly of a few grains, for example using the Discrete Element Method, whose results are in turn fed back to the large scale Finite Element simulation. The key feature of a double scale model is that one can inject the relevant physics at the appropriate scale. The success of such a model crucially depends on the quality of the physics one injects: ideally, this comes directly from experiments. In Grenoble, this is what we do, combining various advanced experimental techniques. We are able to image, in three dimensions and at small scales, the deformation processes accompanying failure in geomaterials. This allows us to understand these processes and subsequently to define models at a pertinently small scale. I will present a few examples of the kind of experimental results which could inform a micro scale model. X-ray micro tomography imaging is the key measurement tool. This is used during loading, providing complete 3D images of a sand specimen at several stages throughout a triaxial compression test. Images from x-rays are then analyzed either in a continuum sense (using 3D Digital Image Correlation) or looking at the individual particle kinematics (Particle Tracking). I will show some of our most recent results, in which individual sand grains are followed with a technique combining very recent developments in image correlation and particle tracking. These advanced techniques offer us a look at what actually happens when a granular material deforms and eventually fails.

Imaging the Subsurface of the Thuringian Basin (Germany) on Different Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goepel, A.; Krause, M.; Methe, P.; Kukowski, N.

2014-12-01

Understanding the coupled dynamics of near surface and deep fluid flow patterns is essential to characterize the properties of sedimentary basins, to identify the processes of compaction, diagenesis, and transport of mass and energy. The multidisciplinary project INFLUINS (Integrated FLUid dynamics IN Sedimentary basins) aims for investigating the behavior of fluids in the Thuringian Basin, a small intra-continental sedimentary basin in Germany, at different spatial scales, ranging from the pore scale to the extent of the entire basin. As hydraulic properties often significantly vary with spatial scales, e.g. seismic data using different frequencies are required to gain information about the spatial variability of elastic and hydraulic subsurface properties. For the Thuringian Basin, we use seismic and borehole data acquired in the framework of INFLUINS. Basin-wide structural imaging data are available from 2D reflection seismic profiles as well as 2.5D and 3D seismic travel time tomography. Further, core material from a 1,179 m deep drill hole completed in 2013 is available for laboratory seismic experiments on mm- to cm-scale. The data are complemented with logging data along the entire drill hole. This campaign yielded e.g. sonic and density logs allowing the estimation of in-situ P-velocity and acoustic impedance with a spatial resolution on the cm-scale and provides improved information about petrologic and stratigraphic variability at different scales. Joint interpretation of basin scale structural and elastic properties data with laboratory scale data from ultrasound experiments using core samples enables a detailed and realistic imaging of the subsurface properties on different spatial scales. Combining seismic travel time tomography with stratigraphic interpretation provides useful information of variations in the elastic properties for certain geological units and therefore gives indications for changes in hydraulic properties.

The Relationships between Workaholism and Symptoms of Psychiatric Disorders: A Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Mark D.; Sinha, Rajita; Hetland, Jørn

2016-01-01

Despite the many number of studies examining workaholism, large-scale studies have been lacking. The present study utilized an open web-based cross-sectional survey assessing symptoms of psychiatric disorders and workaholism among 16,426 workers (Mage = 37.3 years, SD = 11.4, range = 16–75 years). Participants were administered the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale, the Obsession-Compulsive Inventory-Revised, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the Bergen Work Addiction Scale, along with additional questions examining demographic and work-related variables. Correlations between workaholism and all psychiatric disorder symptoms were positive and significant. Workaholism comprised the dependent variable in a three-step linear multiple hierarchical regression analysis. Basic demographics (age, gender, relationship status, and education) explained 1.2% of the variance in workaholism, whereas work demographics (work status, position, sector, and annual income) explained an additional 5.4% of the variance. Age (inversely) and managerial positions (positively) were of most importance. The psychiatric symptoms (ADHD, OCD, anxiety, and depression) explained 17.0% of the variance. ADHD and anxiety contributed considerably. The prevalence rate of workaholism status was 7.8% of the present sample. In an adjusted logistic regression analysis, all psychiatric symptoms were positively associated with being a workaholic. The independent variables explained between 6.1% and 14.4% in total of the variance in workaholism cases. Although most effect sizes were relatively small, the study’s findings expand our understanding of possible psychiatric predictors of workaholism, and particularly shed new insight into the reality of adult ADHD in work life. The study’s implications, strengths, and shortcomings are also discussed. PMID:27192149

Characterization of Transpiration in a Deciduous Forest of the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragoni, D.; Caylor, K. K.; Schmid, H.

2006-12-01

The exchange of water between atmosphere and biosphere is an important determinant of climate and the productivity of vegetation, as transpiration involves substantial amounts of energy. Knowing how transpiration changes over seasonal and diurnal cycles can help increase the understanding of how a forest reacts to changes in the biosphere and atmosphere on both short and long time scales. A study was conducted to characterize the daily and seasonal variation of transpiration in sugar maple (Acer Saccharum) at the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) AmeriFlux site in Indiana (USA), were this species represent more than 25% of the forest basal area. Transpiration was estimated by up-scaling single point measurements of sap flow density obtained using the heat-pulse technique. To characterize the variability of sap flow density in the deep sapwood of sugar maples, 3 to 4 radial profiles were obtained for each sampled tree at different positions around the trunk. Different approaches were then tested to scale up to whole tree sap flow. Seventeen trees of different diameter were sampled by three roving sap flow systems, taking measurements from each tree for 5-7 contiguous days. Because of the small scale but complex topography in the area and the relatively shallow soil, particular attention was given to the effect of spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture content on transpiration; for this reason, sampled trees were selected along a topographic gradient and soil water content was measured in the proximity of each tree. Meteorological measurements taken at the nearby MMSF AmeriFlux tower were used to explain transpiration variability in terms of vapor pressure deficit, and solar radiation, while eddy- covariance measurements of latent heat flux were related to the up-scaled transpiration of sugar maples in the study area.

Small-scale spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem properties, microbial community composition and microbial activities in a temperate mountain forest soil.

PubMed

Štursová, Martina; Bárta, Jiří; Šantrůčková, Hana; Baldrian, Petr

2016-12-01

Forests are recognised as spatially heterogeneous ecosystems. However, knowledge of the small-scale spatial variation in microbial abundance, community composition and activity is limited. Here, we aimed to describe the heterogeneity of environmental properties, namely vegetation, soil chemical composition, fungal and bacterial abundance and community composition, and enzymatic activity, in the topsoil in a small area (36 m 2 ) of a highly heterogeneous regenerating temperate natural forest, and to explore the relationships among these variables. The results demonstrated a high level of spatial heterogeneity in all properties and revealed differences between litter and soil. Fungal communities had substantially higher beta-diversity than bacterial communities, which were more uniform and less spatially autocorrelated. In litter, fungal communities were affected by vegetation and appeared to be more involved in decomposition. In the soil, chemical composition affected both microbial abundance and the rates of decomposition, whereas the effect of vegetation was small. Importantly, decomposition appeared to be concentrated in hotspots with increased activity of multiple enzymes. Overall, forest topsoil should be considered a spatially heterogeneous environment in which the mean estimates of ecosystem-level processes and microbial community composition may confound the existence of highly specific microenvironments. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2017-04-01

A high resolution regional model (1/36 degree) of the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean (GoMSS) is developed to downscale ocean conditions from an existing global operational system. First, predictions from the regional GoMSS model in a one-way nesting set up are evaluated using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that on the shelf, the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is because of unrealistic internally generated variability (associated with the one-way nesting set up) that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system in the deep water. To overcome this problem, the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the regional model are spectrally nudged towards the global system fields. This leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cut-off wavelength of the spectral nudging.

Multi-time Scale Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources in Isolated Power Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayhorn, Ebony; Xie, Le; Butler-Purry, Karen

2016-03-31

In isolated power systems, including microgrids, distributed assets, such as renewable energy resources (e.g. wind, solar) and energy storage, can be actively coordinated to reduce dependency on fossil fuel generation. The key challenge of such coordination arises from significant uncertainty and variability occurring at small time scales associated with increased penetration of renewables. Specifically, the problem is with ensuring economic and efficient utilization of DERs, while also meeting operational objectives such as adequate frequency performance. One possible solution is to reduce the time step at which tertiary controls are implemented and to ensure feedback and look-ahead capability are incorporated tomore » handle variability and uncertainty. However, reducing the time step of tertiary controls necessitates investigating time-scale coupling with primary controls so as not to exacerbate system stability issues. In this paper, an optimal coordination (OC) strategy, which considers multiple time-scales, is proposed for isolated microgrid systems with a mix of DERs. This coordination strategy is based on an online moving horizon optimization approach. The effectiveness of the strategy was evaluated in terms of economics, technical performance, and computation time by varying key parameters that significantly impact performance. The illustrative example with realistic scenarios on a simulated isolated microgrid test system suggests that the proposed approach is generalizable towards designing multi-time scale optimal coordination strategies for isolated power systems.« less

Differential Item Functioning in the SF-36 Physical Functioning and Mental Health Sub-Scales: A Population-Based Investigation in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Lix, Lisa M; Wu, Xiuyun; Hopman, Wilma; Mayo, Nancy; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Liu, Juxin; Prior, Jerilynn C; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Josse, Robert G; Towheed, Tanveer E; Davison, K Shawn; Sawatzky, Richard

2016-01-01

Self-reported health status measures, like the Short Form 36-item Health Survey (SF-36), can provide rich information about the overall health of a population and its components, such as physical, mental, and social health. However, differential item functioning (DIF), which arises when population sub-groups with the same underlying (i.e., latent) level of health have different measured item response probabilities, may compromise the comparability of these measures. The purpose of this study was to test for DIF on the SF-36 physical functioning (PF) and mental health (MH) sub-scale items in a Canadian population-based sample. Study data were from the prospective Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos), which collected baseline data in 1996-1997. DIF was tested using a multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) method. Confirmatory factor analysis defined the latent variable measurement model for the item responses and latent variable regression with demographic and health status covariates (i.e., sex, age group, body weight, self-perceived general health) produced estimates of the magnitude of DIF effects. The CaMos cohort consisted of 9423 respondents; 69.4% were female and 51.7% were less than 65 years. Eight of 10 items on the PF sub-scale and four of five items on the MH sub-scale exhibited DIF. Large DIF effects were observed on PF sub-scale items about vigorous and moderate activities, lifting and carrying groceries, walking one block, and bathing or dressing. On the MH sub-scale items, all DIF effects were small or moderate in size. SF-36 PF and MH sub-scale scores were not comparable across population sub-groups defined by demographic and health status variables due to the effects of DIF, although the magnitude of this bias was not large for most items. We recommend testing and adjusting for DIF to ensure comparability of the SF-36 in population-based investigations.

Production regimes in four eastern boundary current systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, M. E.; Kearns, E. J.

2003-01-01

High productivity (maxima 3 g C m(sup -2)day(sup -1)) of the Eastern Boundary Currents (EBCs), i.e. the California, Peru-Humboldt, Canary and Benguela Currents, is driven by a combination of local forcing and large-scale circulation. The characteristics of the deep water brought to the surface by upwelling favorable winds depend on the large-scale circulation patterns. Here we use a new hydrographic and nutrient climatology together with satellite measurements ofthe wind vector, sea-surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration, and primary production modeled from ocean color to quantify the meridional and seasonal patterns of upwelling dynamics and biological response. The unprecedented combination of data sets allows us to describe objectively the variability for small regions within each current and to characterize the governing factors for biological production. The temporal and spatial environmental variability was due in most regions to large-scale circulation, alone or in combination with offshore transport (local forcing). The observed meridional and seasonal patterns of biomass and primary production were most highlycorrelated to components representing large-scale circulation. The biomass sustained by a given nutrient concentration in the Atlantic EBCs was twice as large as that of the Pacific EBCs. This apparent greater efficiency may be due toavailability of iron, physical retention, or differences in planktonic community structure.

Upscaled soil-water retention using van Genuchten's function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, T.R.; Constantz, J.E.; Freyberg, D.L.

1996-01-01

Soils are often layered at scales smaller than the block size used in numerical and conceptual models of variably saturated flow. Consequently, the small-scale variability in water content within each block must be homogenized (upscaled). Laboratory results have shown that a linear volume average (LVA) of water content at a uniform suction is a good approximation to measured water contents in heterogeneous cores. Here, we upscale water contents using van Genuchten's function for both the local and upscaled soil-water-retention characteristics. The van Genuchten (vG) function compares favorably with LVA results, laboratory experiments under hydrostatic conditions in 3-cm cores, and numerical simulations of large-scale gravity drainage. Our method yields upscaled vG parameter values by fitting the vG curve to the LVA of water contents at various suction values. In practice, it is more efficient to compute direct averages of the local vG parameter values. Nonlinear power averages quantify a feasible range of values for each upscaled vG shape parameter; upscaled values of N are consistently less than the harmonic means, reflecting broad pore-size distributions of the upscaled soils. The vG function is useful for modeling soil-water retention at large scales, and these results provide guidance for its application.

Miniature Loop Heat Pipe with Multiple Evaporators for Thermal Control of Small Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ku, Jentung; Ottenstein, Laura; Douglas, Denya; Pauken, Michael; Birur, Gajanana

2005-01-01

This paper presents an advanced miniature heat transport system for thermal control of small spacecraft. The thermal system consists of a loop heat pipe (LHP) with multiple evaporators and multiple deployable radiators for heat transfer, and variable emittance coatings on the radiators for performance enhancement. Thermoelectric coolers are used to control the loop operating temperature. The thermal system combines the functions of variable conductance heat pipes, thermal switches, thermal diodes, and the state-of-the-art LHPs into a single integrated thermal system. It retains all the performance characteristics of state-of-the-art LHPs and offers additional advantages to enhance the functionality, performance, versatility, and reliability of the system. Steady state and transient analytical models have been developed, and scaling criteria have also been established. A breadboard unit has been built for functional testing in laboratory and thermal vacuum environments. Experimental results show excellent performance of the thermal system and correlate very well with theoretical predictions.

Compositional changes of surface sediments and variability of manganese nodules in the Peru Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchig, Vesna; von Stackelberg, Ulrich; Hufnagel, Heinz; Durn, Goran

Two types of manganese nodules were observed in the Peru Basin: large botryoidal nodules in basins and small ellipsoidal nodules on slope positions. The sediment in areas with large botryoidal nodules contains a thinner and weaker oxidation zone than the sediment under small ellipsoidal nodules, indicating that diagenetic processes in the sediment, which supply manganese nodules with metals for their growth, are stronger in sediments on which large botryoidal nodules grow. Organic matter, which activates remobilization of metals, occurs mostly in the form of refractory lipidic compounds in the inner capsule of radiolaria. This material needs bacterial degradation to act as a reducing agent. Easily oxidizable organic components could not be found in the sediments. Other changes in sediment composition do not have a link to manganese nodule growth. Biogenous components (radiolarians, organogenic barite and apatite) increase towards the equatorial high-productivity zone. Authigenous clay minerals (nontronite as well as montmorillonite with high Fe +3 incorporation on positions of ochtaedral Al) increase with distance from the continent. The assessment of environmental impacts will have to take into account the regional differences in sediment composition and the small-scale variability of manganese nodules.

Differences Between the Childhood Autism Rating Scale and the Social Responsiveness Scale in Assessing Symptoms of Children with Autistic Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Chen, Kuan-Lin; Lin, Chien-Ho; Yu, Tzu-Ying; Huang, Chien-Yu; Chen, Ying-Dar

2018-04-25

This study aimed to compare symptoms of autism spectrum disorder using the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS) and the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS™-2) and to investigate their influencing factors. The diagnostic agreement was 92.7%, but with a fair Kappa value (0.247). Children's verbal comprehension was related to the CARS scores, and no variables were related to the SRS™-2 scores. Generally, significant small correlations were found between the two measures in children with normal or borderline to below average verbal comprehension (rs = 0.32 ~ 0.49, p < .005), but not in those with impaired verbal comprehension. The CARS and the SRS™-2 may contain different explicit behaviors and collect different perspectives (i.e., those of caregivers and professionals). Therefore, they appear to complement each other.

The Effects of Fine-scale Soil Moisture and Canopy Heterogeneities on Energy and Soil Water Fluxes in a Temperate Mixed Deciduous Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, L.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bohrer, G.; Maurer, K.; Vogel, C. S.; Moghaddam, M.

2011-12-01

Vegetation is heterogeneous at different scales, influencing spatially variable energy and water exchanges between land-surface and atmosphere. Current land surface parameterizations of large-scale models consider spatial variability at a scale of a few kilometers and treat vegetation cover as aggregated patches with uniform properties. However, the coupling mechanisms between fine-scale soil moisture, vegetation, and energy fluxes such as evapotranspiration are strongly nonlinear; the aggregation of surface variations may produce biased energy fluxes. This study aims to improve the understanding of the scale impact in atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere interactions, which affects predictive capabilities of land surface models. The study uses a high-resolution, physically-based ecohydrological model tRIBS + VEGGIE as a data integration tool to upscale the heterogeneity of canopy distribution resolved at a few meters to the watershed scale. The study was carried out for a spatially heterogeneous, temperate mixed forest environment of Northern Michigan located near the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). Energy and soil water dynamics were simulated at the tree-canopy resolution in the horizontal plane for a small domain (~2 sq. km) located within a footprint of the AmeriFlux tower. A variety of observational data were used to constrain and confirm the model, including a 3-m profile continuous soil moisture dataset and energy flux data (measured at the AmeriFlux tower footprint). A scenario with a spatially uniform canopy, corresponding to the commonly used 'big-leaf' scheme in land surface parameterizations was used to infer the effects of coarse-scale averaging. To gain insights on how heterogeneous canopy and soil moisture interact and contribute to the domain-averaged transpiration, several scenarios of tree-scale leaf area and soil moisture spatial variability were designed. Specifically, for the same mean states, the scenarios of variability of canopy biomass account for the spatial distribution of photosynthesis (and thus the stomatal resistance), the aerodynamic and leaf boundary layer resistances as well as the differential radiation forcing due to tall tree exposure and lateral shading of short trees. The numerical experiments show that by transpiring spatially varying amounts of water, heterogeneous canopies adjust the spatial soil water state to the scaled inverse of the canopy biomass regardless of the initial moisture state. Such a spatial distribution can be further wiped out because of the differential water stress. The aggregation of canopy-scale atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere interactions demonstrates non-linear relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, influencing domain-averaged energy fluxes.

Short-term rainfall: its scaling properties over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, M. Isabel P.

2010-05-01

The characterization of rainfall at a variety of space- and time-scales demands usually that data from different origins and resolution are explored. Different tools and methodologies can be used for this purpose. In regions where the spatial variation of rain is marked, the study of the scaling structure of rainfall can lead to a better understanding of the type of events affecting that specific area, which is essential for many engineering applications. The relevant factors affecting rain variability, in time and space, can lead to contrasting statistics which should be carefully taken into account in design procedures and decision making processes. One such region is Mainland Portugal; the territory is located in the transitional region between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the subpolar depression zones and is characterized by strong north-south and east-west rainfall gradients. The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of rain are particularly influenced by the characteristics of the global circulation. One specific feature is the Atlantic origin of many synoptic disturbances in the context of the regional geography (e.g. latitude, orography, oceanic and continental influences). Thus, aiming at investigating the statistical signature of rain events of different origins, resulting from the large number of mechanisms and factors affecting the rainfall climate over Portugal, scale-invariant analyses of the temporal structure of rain from several locations in mainland Portugal were conducted. The study used short-term rainfall time series. Relevant scaling ranges were identified and characterized that help clarifying the small-scale behaviour and statistics of this process.

A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

2014-12-01

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

Learned perceptual associations influence visuomotor programming under limited conditions: kinematic consistency.

PubMed

Haffenden, Angela M; Goodale, Melvyn A

2002-12-01

Previous findings have suggested that visuomotor programming can make use of learned size information in experimental paradigms where movement kinematics are quite consistent from trial to trial. The present experiment was designed to test whether or not this conclusion could be generalized to a different manipulation of kinematic variability. As in previous work, an association was established between the size and colour of square blocks (e.g. red = large; yellow = small, or vice versa). Associating size and colour in this fashion has been shown to reliably alter the perceived size of two test blocks halfway in size between the large and small blocks: estimations of the test block matched in colour to the group of large blocks are smaller than estimations of the test block matched to the group of small blocks. Subjects grasped the blocks, and on other trials estimated the size of the blocks. These changes in perceived block size were incorporated into grip scaling only when movement kinematics were highly consistent from trial to trial; that is, when the blocks were presented in the same location on each trial. When the blocks were presented in different locations grip scaling remained true to the metrics of the test blocks despite the changes in perceptual estimates of block size. These results support previous findings suggesting that kinematic consistency facilitates the incorporation of learned perceptual information into grip scaling.

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

2011-01-01

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

Forced and intrinsic variability in the response to increased wind stress of an idealized Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Chris; Hughes, Chris W.; Blundell, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

use ensemble runs of a three layer, quasi-geostrophic idealized Southern Ocean model to explore the roles of forced and intrinsic variability in response to a linear increase of wind stress imposed over a 30 year period. We find no increase of eastward circumpolar volume transport in response to the increased wind stress. A large part of the resulting time series can be explained by a response in which the eddy kinetic energy is linearly proportional to the wind stress with a possible time lag, but no statistically significant lag is found. However, this simple relationship is not the whole story: several intrinsic time scales also influence the response. We find an e-folding time scale for growth of small perturbations of 1-2 weeks. The energy budget for intrinsic variability at periods shorter than a year is dominated by exchange between kinetic and potential energy. At longer time scales, we find an intrinsic mode with period in the region of 15 years, which is dominated by changes in potential energy and frictional dissipation in a manner consistent with that seen by Hogg and Blundell (2006). A similar mode influences the response to changing wind stress. This influence, robust to perturbations, is different from the supposed linear relationship between wind stress and eddy kinetic energy, and persists for 5-10 years in this model, suggestive of a forced oscillatory mode with period of around 15 years. If present in the real ocean, such a mode would imply a degree of predictability of Southern Ocean dynamics on multiyear time scales.

Direct measurement of sub-surface mass change using the variable-baseline gravity gradient method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Güntner, Andreas; Abe, Maiko; Creutzfeldt, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Time-lapse gravity data provide a direct, non-destructive method to monitor mass changes at scales from cm to km. But, the effectively infinite spatial sensitivity of gravity measurements can make it difficult to isolate the signal of interest. The variable-baseline gravity gradient method, based on the difference of measurements between two gravimeters, is an alternative to the conventional approach of individually modeling all sources of mass and elevation change. This approach can improve the signal-to-noise ratio for many applications by removing the contributions of Earth tides, loading, and other signals that have the same effect on both gravimeters. At the same time, this approach can focus the support volume within a relatively small user-defined region of the subsurface. The method is demonstrated using paired superconducting gravimeters to make for the first time a large-scale, non-invasive measurement of infiltration wetting front velocity and change in water content above the wetting front.

Tests and analysis of a vented D thrust deflecting nozzle on a turbofan engine. [conducted at the outdoor aerodynamic research facility of the Ames Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roseberg, E. W.

1982-01-01

The objectives were to: obtain nozzle performance characteristics in and out of ground effects; demonstrate the compatibility of the nozzle with a turbofan engine; obtain pressure and temperature distributions on the surface of the D vented nozzle; and establish a correlation of the nozzle performance between small scale and large scale models. The test nozzle was a boilerplate model of the MCAIR D vented nozzle configured for operation with a General Electric YTF-34-F5 turbofan engine. The nozzle was configured to provide: a thrust vectoring range of 0 to 115 deg; a yaw vectoring range of 0 to 10 deg; variable nozzle area control; and variable spacing between the core exit and nozzle entrance station. Compatibility between the YTF-34-T5 turbofan engine and the D vented nozzle was demonstrated. Velocity coefficients of 0.96 and greater were obtained for 90 deg of thrust vectoring. The nozzle walls remained cool during all test conditions.

A large-scale deforestation experiment: Effects of patch area and isolation on Amazon birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferraz, G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Stouffer, P.C.; Bierregaard, R.O.; Lovejoy, T.E.

2007-01-01

As compared with extensive contiguous areas, small isolated habitat patches lack many species. Some species disappear after isolation; others are rarely found in any small patch, regardless of isolation. We used a 13-year data set of bird captures from a large landscape-manipulation experiment in a Brazilian Amazon forest to model the extinction-colonization dynamics of 55 species and tested basic predictions of island biogeography and metapopulation theory. From our models, we derived two metrics of species vulnerability to changes in isolation and patch area. We found a strong effect of area and a variable effect of isolation on the predicted patch occupancy by birds.

Analysis of spatiotemporal soil moisture patterns at the catchment scale using a wireless sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogena, Heye R.; Huisman, Johan A.; Rosenbaum, Ulrike; Weuthen, Ansgar; Vereecken, Harry

2010-05-01

Soil water content plays a key role in partitioning water and energy fluxes and controlling the pattern of groundwater recharge. Despite the importance of soil water content, it is not yet measured in an operational way at larger scales. The aim of this paper is to present the potential of real-time monitoring for the analysis of soil moisture patterns at the catchment scale using the recently developed wireless sensor network SoilNet [1], [2]. SoilNet is designed to measure soil moisture, salinity and temperature in several depths (e.g. 5, 20 and 50 cm). Recently, a small forest catchment Wüstebach (~27 ha) has been instrumented with 150 sensor nodes and more than 1200 soil sensors in the framework of the Transregio32 and the Helmholtz initiative TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories). From August to November 2009, more than 6 million soil moisture measurements have been performed. We will present first results from a statistical and geostatistical analysis of the data. The observed spatial variability of soil moisture corresponds well with the 800-m scale variability described in [3]. The very low scattering of the standard deviation versus mean soil moisture plots indicates that sensor network data shows less artificial soil moisture variations than soil moisture data originated from measurement campaigns. The variograms showed more or less the same nugget effect, which indicates that the sum of the sub-scale variability and the measurement error is rather time-invariant. Wet situations showed smaller spatial variability, which is attributed to saturated soil water content, which poses an upper limit and is typically not strongly variable in headwater catchments with relatively homogeneous soil. The spatiotemporal variability in soil moisture at 50 cm depth was significantly lower than at 5 and 20 cm. This finding indicates that the considerable variability of the top soil is buffered deeper in the soil due to lateral and vertical water fluxes. Topographic features showed the strongest correlation with soil moisture during dry periods, indicating that the control of topography on the soil moisture pattern depends on the soil water status. Interpolation using the external drift kriging method demonstrated that the high sampling density allows capturing the key patterns of soil moisture variation in the Wüstebach catchment. References: [1] Bogena, H.R., J.A. Huisman, C. Oberdörster, H. Vereecken (2007): Evaluation of a low-cost soil water content sensor for wireless network applications. Journal of Hydrology: 344, 32- 42. [2] Rosenbaum, U., Huisman, J.A., Weuthen, A., Vereecken, H. and Bogena, H.R. (2010): Quantification of sensor-to-sensor variability of the ECH2O EC-5, TE and 5TE sensors in dielectric liquids. Accepted for publication in Vadose Zone Journal (09/2009). [3] Famiglietti J.S., D. Ryu, A. A. Berg, M. Rodell and T. J. Jackson (2008), Field observations of soil moisture variability across scales, Water Resour. Res. 44, W01423, doi:10.1029/2006WR005804.

Deep inelastic scattering of leptons from nuclear targets and the BFKL Pomeron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialas, Andrzej; Czyz, Wieslaw; Florkowski, Wojciech

1997-06-01

We calculate shadowing in the process of deep inelastic interactions of leptons with nuclei in the perturbative regime of QCD. We find appreciable shadowing for heavy nuclei (e.g., Pb) in the region of a small Bjorken scaling variable 10-5<=x<=10-3. This shadowing depends weakly on Q2, but it may be strongly influenced, especially at x>=10-3, by the existence of real parts of the forward scattering amplitudes.

Robot vibration control using inertial damping forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Soo Han; Book, Wayne J.

1991-01-01

This paper concerns the suppression of the vibration of a large flexible robot by inertial forces of a small robot which is located at the tip of the large robot. A controller for generating damping forces to a large robot is designed based on the two time scale model. The controller does not need to calculate the quasi-steady variables and is efficient in computation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the inertial forces and the controller designed.

Robot vibration control using inertial damping forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Soo Han; Book, Wayne J.

1989-01-01

The suppression is examined of the vibration of a large flexible robot by inertial forces of a small robot which is located at the tip of the large robot. A controller for generating damping forces to a large robot is designed based on the two time scale mode. The controller does not need to calculate the quasi-steady state variables and is efficient in computation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the inertial forces and the controller designed.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Probing the Quiet Solar Atmosphere from the Photosphere to the Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Gontikakis, Costis; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Tziotziou, Kostas

2018-04-01

We investigate the morphology and temporal variability of a quiet-Sun network region in different solar layers. The emission in several extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral lines through both raster and slot time-series, recorded by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on board the Hinode spacecraft is studied along with Hα observations and high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of the photospheric magnetic field. The photospheric magnetic field is extrapolated up to the corona, showing a multitude of large- and small-scale structures. We show for the first time that the smallest magnetic structures at both the network and internetwork contribute significantly to the emission in EUV lines, with temperatures ranging from 8× 104 K to 6× 105 K. Two components of transition region emission are present, one associated with small-scale loops that do not reach coronal temperatures, and another component that acts as an interface between coronal and chromospheric plasma. Both components are associated with persistent chromospheric structures. The temporal variability of the EUV intensity at the network region is also associated with chromospheric motions, pointing to a connection between transition region and chromospheric features. Intensity enhancements in the EUV transition region lines are preferentially produced by Hα upflows. Examination of two individual chromospheric jets shows that their evolution is associated with intensity variations in transition region and coronal temperatures.

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baliunas, Sallie L.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

A multi-scale examination of stopover habitat use by birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buler, J.J.; Moore, F.R.; Woltmann, S.

2007-01-01

Most of our understanding of habitat use by migrating land birds comes from studies conducted at single, small spatial scales, which may overemphasize the importance of intrinsic habitat factors, such as food availability, in shaping migrant distributions. We believe that a multi-scale approach is essential to assess the influence of factors that control en route habitat use. We determined the relative importance of eight variables, each operating at a habitat-patch, landscape, or regional spatial scale, in explaining the differential use of hardwood forests by Nearctic-Neotropical land birds during migration. We estimated bird densities through transect surveys at sites near the Mississippi coast during spring and autumn migration within landscapes with variable amounts of hardwood forest cover. At a regional scale, migrant density increased with proximity to the coast, which was of moderate importance in explaining bird densities, probably due to constraints imposed on migrants when negotiating the Gulf of Mexico. The amount of hardwood forest cover at a landscape scale was positively correlated with arthropod abundance and had the greatest importance in explaining densities of all migrants, as a group, during spring, and of insectivorous migrants during autumn. Among landscape scales ranging from 500 m to 10 km radius, the densities of migrants were, on average, most strongly and positively related to the amount of hardwood forest cover within a 5 km radius. We suggest that hardwood forest cover at this scale may be an indicator of habitat quality that migrants use as a cue when landing at the end of a migratory flight. At the patch scale, direct measures of arthropod abundance and plant community composition were also important in explaining migrant densities, whereas habitat structure was of little importance. The relative amount of fleshy-fruited trees was positively related and was the most important variable explaining frugivorous migrant density during autumn. Although constraints extrinsic to habitat had a moderate role in explaining migrant distributions, our results are consistent with the view that food availability is the ultimate factor shaping the distributions of birds during stopover. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Major and trace element modeling of mid-ocean ridge mantle melting from the garnet to the plagioclase stability fields: Generating local and global compositional variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, S. M.; Behn, M. D.; Grove, T. L.

2017-12-01

We present results of a combined petrologic - geochemical (major and trace element) - geodynamical forward model for mantle melting and subsequent melt modification. The model advances Behn & Grove (2015), and is calibrated using experimental petrology. Our model allows for melting in the plagioclase, spinel, and garnet fields with a flexible retained melt fraction (from pure batch to pure fractional), tracks residual mantle composition, and includes melting with water, variable melt productivity, and mantle mode calculations. This approach is valuable for understanding oceanic crustal accretion, which involves mantle melting and melt modification by migration and aggregation. These igneous processes result in mid-ocean ridge basalts that vary in composition at the local (segment) and global scale. The important variables are geophysical and geochemical and include mantle composition, potential temperature, mantle flow, and spreading rate. Accordingly, our model allows us to systematically quantify the importance of each of these external variables. In addition to discriminating melt generation effects, we are able to discriminate the effects of different melt modification processes (inefficient pooling, melt-rock reaction, and fractional crystallization) in generating both local, segment-scale and global-scale compositional variability. We quantify the influence of a specific igneous process on the generation of oceanic crust as a function of variations in the external variables. We also find that it is unlikely that garnet lherzolite melting produces a signature in either major or trace element compositions formed from aggregated melts, because when melting does occur in the garnet field at high mantle temperature, it contributes a relatively small, uniform fraction (< 10%) of the pooled melt compositions at all spreading rates. Additionally, while increasing water content and/or temperature promote garnet melting, they also increase melt extent, pushing the pooled composition to lower Sm/Yb and higher Lu/Hf.

Beyond heat baths II: framework for generalized thermodynamic resource theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunger Halpern, Nicole

2018-03-01

Thermodynamics, which describes vast systems, has been reconciled with small scales, relevant to single-molecule experiments, in resource theories. Resource theories have been used to model exchanges of energy and information. Recently, particle exchanges were modeled; and an umbrella family of thermodynamic resource theories was proposed to model diverse baths, interactions, and free energies. This paper motivates and details the family’s structure and prospective applications. How to model electrochemical, gravitational, magnetic, and other thermodynamic systems is explained. Szilárd’s engine and Landauer’s Principle are generalized, as resourcefulness is shown to be convertible not only between information and gravitational energy, but also among diverse degrees of freedom. Extensive variables are associated with quantum operators that might fail to commute, introducing extra nonclassicality into thermodynamic resource theories. An early version of this paper partially motivated the later development of noncommutative thermalization. This generalization expands the theories’ potential for modeling realistic systems with which small-scale statistical mechanics might be tested experimentally.

Pulsations in the Earth's Lower Ionosphere Synchronized With Solar Flare Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Laura A.; Gallagher, Peter T.; McCauley, Joseph; Dennis, Brian R.; Ireland, Jack; Inglis, Andrew

2017-10-01

Solar flare emission at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energies can cause substantial enhancements in the electron density in the Earth's lower ionosphere. It has now become clear that flares exhibit quasi-periodic pulsations with timescales of minutes at X-ray energies, but to date, it has not been known if the ionosphere is sensitive to this variability. Here using a combination of very low frequency (24 kHz) measurement together with space-based X-ray and EUV observations, we report pulsations of the ionospheric D region, which are synchronized with a set of pulsating flare loops. Modeling of the ionosphere show that the D region electron density varies by up to an order of magnitude over the timescale of the pulsations (˜ 20 min). Our results reveal that the Earth's ionosphere is more sensitive to small-scale changes in solar soft X-ray flux than previously thought and implies that planetary ionospheres are closely coupled to small-scale changes in solar/stellar activity.

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

Factors Driving Potential Ammonia Oxidation in Canadian Arctic Ecosystems: Does Spatial Scale Matter?

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Samiran

2012-01-01

Ammonia oxidation is a major process in nitrogen cycling, and it plays a key role in nitrogen limited soil ecosystems such as those in the arctic. Although mm-scale spatial dependency of ammonia oxidizers has been investigated, little is known about the field-scale spatial dependency of aerobic ammonia oxidation processes and ammonia-oxidizing archaeal and bacterial communities, particularly in arctic soils. The purpose of this study was to explore the drivers of ammonia oxidation at the field scale in cryosols (soils with permafrost within 1 m of the surface). We measured aerobic ammonia oxidation potential (both autotrophic and heterotrophic) and functional gene abundance (bacterial amoA and archaeal amoA) in 279 soil samples collected from three arctic ecosystems. The variability associated with quantifying genes was substantially less than the spatial variability observed in these soils, suggesting that molecular methods can be used reliably evaluate spatial dependency in arctic ecosystems. Ammonia-oxidizing archaeal and bacterial communities and aerobic ammonia oxidation were spatially autocorrelated. Gene abundances were spatially structured within 4 m, whereas biochemical processes were structured within 40 m. Ammonia oxidation was driven at small scales (<1m) by moisture and total organic carbon, whereas gene abundance and other edaphic factors drove ammonia oxidation at medium (1 to 10 m) and large (10 to 100 m) scales. In these arctic soils heterotrophs contributed between 29 and 47% of total ammonia oxidation potential. The spatial scale for aerobic ammonia oxidation genes differed from potential ammonia oxidation, suggesting that in arctic ecosystems edaphic, rather than genetic, factors are an important control on ammonia oxidation. PMID:22081570

Food-web structure and network theory: The role of connectance and size

PubMed Central

Dunne, Jennifer A.; Williams, Richard J.; Martinez, Neo D.

2002-01-01

Networks from a wide range of physical, biological, and social systems have been recently described as “small-world” and “scale-free.” However, studies disagree whether ecological networks called food webs possess the characteristic path lengths, clustering coefficients, and degree distributions required for membership in these classes of networks. Our analysis suggests that the disagreements are based on selective use of relatively few food webs, as well as analytical decisions that obscure important variability in the data. We analyze a broad range of 16 high-quality food webs, with 25–172 nodes, from a variety of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Food webs generally have much higher complexity, measured as connectance (the fraction of all possible links that are realized in a network), and much smaller size than other networks studied, which have important implications for network topology. Our results resolve prior conflicts by demonstrating that although some food webs have small-world and scale-free structure, most do not if they exceed a relatively low level of connectance. Although food-web degree distributions do not display a universal functional form, observed distributions are systematically related to network connectance and size. Also, although food webs often lack small-world structure because of low clustering, we identify a continuum of real-world networks including food webs whose ratios of observed to random clustering coefficients increase as a power–law function of network size over 7 orders of magnitude. Although food webs are generally not small-world, scale-free networks, food-web topology is consistent with patterns found within those classes of networks. PMID:12235364

Analysis of small scale turbulent structures and the effect of spatial scales on gas transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnieders, Jana; Garbe, Christoph

2014-05-01

The exchange of gases through the air-sea interface strongly depends on environmental conditions such as wind stress and waves which in turn generate near surface turbulence. Near surface turbulence is a main driver of surface divergence which has been shown to cause highly variable transfer rates on relatively small spatial scales. Due to the cool skin of the ocean, heat can be used as a tracer to detect areas of surface convergence and thus gather information about size and intensity of a turbulent process. We use infrared imagery to visualize near surface aqueous turbulence and determine the impact of turbulent scales on exchange rates. Through the high temporal and spatial resolution of these types of measurements spatial scales as well as surface dynamics can be captured. The surface heat pattern is formed by distinct structures on two scales - small-scale short lived structures termed fish scales and larger scale cold streaks that are consistent with the footprints of Langmuir Circulations. There are two key characteristics of the observed surface heat patterns: 1. The surface heat patterns show characteristic features of scales. 2. The structure of these patterns change with increasing wind stress and surface conditions. In [2] turbulent cell sizes have been shown to systematically decrease with increasing wind speed until a saturation at u* = 0.7 cm/s is reached. Results suggest a saturation in the tangential stress. Similar behaviour has been observed by [1] for gas transfer measurements at higher wind speeds. In this contribution a new model to estimate the heat flux is applied which is based on the measured turbulent cell size und surface velocities. This approach allows the direct comparison of the net effect on heat flux of eddies of different sizes and a comparison to gas transfer measurements. Linking transport models with thermographic measurements, transfer velocities can be computed. In this contribution, we will quantify the effect of small scale processes on interfacial transport and relate it to gas transfer. References [1] T. G. Bell, W. De Bruyn, S. D. Miller, B. Ward, K. Christensen, and E. S. Saltzman. Air-sea dimethylsulfide (DMS) gas transfer in the North Atlantic: evidence for limited interfacial gas exchange at high wind speed. Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 13:11073-11087, 2013. [2] J Schnieders, C. S. Garbe, W.L. Peirson, and C. J. Zappa. Analyzing the footprints of near surface aqueous turbulence - an image processing based approach. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 2013.

Nowhere safe? Exploring the influence of urbanization across mainland and insular seashores in continental Portugal and the Azorean Archipelago.

PubMed

Bertocci, Iacopo; Arenas, Francisco; Cacabelos, Eva; Martins, Gustavo M; Seabra, Maria I; Álvaro, Nuno V; Fernandes, Joana N; Gaião, Raquel; Mamede, Nuno; Mulas, Martina; Neto, Ana I

2017-01-30

Differences in the structure and functioning of intensively urbanized vs. less human-affected systems are reported, but such evidence is available for a much larger extent in terrestrial than in marine systems. We examined the hypotheses that (i) urbanization was associated to different patterns of variation of intertidal assemblages between urban and extra-urban environments; (ii) such patterns were consistent across mainland and insular systems, spatial scales from 10scm to 100skm, and a three months period. Several trends emerged: (i) a more homogeneous distribution of most algal groups in the urban compared to the extra-urban condition and the opposite pattern of most invertebrates; (ii) smaller/larger variances of most organisms where these were, respectively, less/more abundant; (iii) largest variability of most response variables at small scale; (iv) no facilitation of invasive species by urbanization and larger cover of canopy-forming algae in the insular extra-urban condition. Present findings confirm the acknowledged notion that future management strategies will require to include representative assemblages and their relevant scales of variation associated to urbanization gradients on both the mainland and the islands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data Images and Other Graphical Displays for Directional Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morphet, Bill; Symanzik, Juergen

2005-01-01

Vectors, axes, and periodic phenomena have direction. Directional variation can be expressed as points on a unit circle and is the subject of circular statistics, a relatively new application of statistics. An overview of existing methods for the display of directional data is given. The data image for linear variables is reviewed, then extended to directional variables by displaying direction using a color scale composed of a sequence of four or more color gradients with continuity between sequences and ordered intuitively in a color wheel such that the color of the 0deg angle is the same as the color of the 360deg angle. Cross over, which arose in automating the summarization of historical wind data, and color discontinuity resulting from the use a single color gradient in computational fluid dynamics visualization are eliminated. The new method provides for simultaneous resolution of detail on a small scale and overall structure on a large scale. Example circular data images are given of a global view of average wind direction of El Nino periods, computed rocket motor internal combustion flow, a global view of direction of the horizontal component of earth's main magnetic field on 9/15/2004, and Space Shuttle solid rocket motor nozzle vectoring.

Evaluation of modal pushover-based scaling of one component of ground motion: Tall buildings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol; Chopra, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Nonlinear response history analysis (RHA) is now increasingly used for performance-based seismic design of tall buildings. Required for nonlinear RHAs is a set of ground motions selected and scaled appropriately so that analysis results would be accurate (unbiased) and efficient (having relatively small dispersion). This paper evaluates accuracy and efficiency of recently developed modal pushover–based scaling (MPS) method to scale ground motions for tall buildings. The procedure presented explicitly considers structural strength and is based on the standard intensity measure (IM) of spectral acceleration in a form convenient for evaluating existing structures or proposed designs for new structures. Based on results presented for two actual buildings (19 and 52 stories, respectively), it is demonstrated that the MPS procedure provided a highly accurate estimate of the engineering demand parameters (EDPs), accompanied by significantly reduced record-to-record variability of the responses. In addition, the MPS procedure is shown to be superior to the scaling procedure specified in the ASCE/SEI 7-05 document.

Downscaling Soil Moisture in the Southern Great Plains Through a Calibrated Multifractal Model for Land Surface Modeling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Deidda, Roberto

2010-01-01

Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.

IS THE SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC FIELD CORRELATED WITH THE DYNAMO CYCLE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Brandenburg, Axel, E-mail: bbkarak@nordita.org

2016-01-01

The small-scale magnetic field is ubiquitous at the solar surface—even at high latitudes. From observations we know that this field is uncorrelated (or perhaps even weakly anticorrelated) with the global sunspot cycle. Our aim is to explore the origin, and particularly the cycle dependence, of such a phenomenon using three-dimensional dynamo simulations. We adopt a simple model of a turbulent dynamo in a shearing box driven by helically forced turbulence. Depending on the dynamo parameters, large-scale (global) and small-scale (local) dynamos can be excited independently in this model. Based on simulations in different parameter regimes, we find that, when onlymore » the large-scale dynamo is operating in the system, the small-scale magnetic field generated through shredding and tangling of the large-scale magnetic field is positively correlated with the global magnetic cycle. However, when both dynamos are operating, the small-scale field is produced from both the small-scale dynamo and the tangling of the large-scale field. In this situation, when the large-scale field is weaker than the equipartition value of the turbulence, the small-scale field is almost uncorrelated with the large-scale magnetic cycle. On the other hand, when the large-scale field is stronger than the equipartition value, we observe an anticorrelation between the small-scale field and the large-scale magnetic cycle. This anticorrelation can be interpreted as a suppression of the small-scale dynamo. Based on our studies we conclude that the observed small-scale magnetic field in the Sun is generated by the combined mechanisms of a small-scale dynamo and tangling of the large-scale field.« less

Why small-scale cannabis growers stay small: five mechanisms that prevent small-scale growers from going large scale.

PubMed

Hammersvik, Eirik; Sandberg, Sveinung; Pedersen, Willy

2012-11-01

Over the past 15-20 years, domestic cultivation of cannabis has been established in a number of European countries. New techniques have made such cultivation easier; however, the bulk of growers remain small-scale. In this study, we explore the factors that prevent small-scale growers from increasing their production. The study is based on 1 year of ethnographic fieldwork and qualitative interviews conducted with 45 Norwegian cannabis growers, 10 of whom were growing on a large-scale and 35 on a small-scale. The study identifies five mechanisms that prevent small-scale indoor growers from going large-scale. First, large-scale operations involve a number of people, large sums of money, a high work-load and a high risk of detection, and thus demand a higher level of organizational skills than for small growing operations. Second, financial assets are needed to start a large 'grow-site'. Housing rent, electricity, equipment and nutrients are expensive. Third, to be able to sell large quantities of cannabis, growers need access to an illegal distribution network and knowledge of how to act according to black market norms and structures. Fourth, large-scale operations require advanced horticultural skills to maximize yield and quality, which demands greater skills and knowledge than does small-scale cultivation. Fifth, small-scale growers are often embedded in the 'cannabis culture', which emphasizes anti-commercialism, anti-violence and ecological and community values. Hence, starting up large-scale production will imply having to renegotiate or abandon these values. Going from small- to large-scale cannabis production is a demanding task-ideologically, technically, economically and personally. The many obstacles that small-scale growers face and the lack of interest and motivation for going large-scale suggest that the risk of a 'slippery slope' from small-scale to large-scale growing is limited. Possible political implications of the findings are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Screening large-scale association study data: exploiting interactions using random forests.

PubMed

Lunetta, Kathryn L; Hayward, L Brooke; Segal, Jonathan; Van Eerdewegh, Paul

2004-12-10

Genome-wide association studies for complex diseases will produce genotypes on hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A logical first approach to dealing with massive numbers of SNPs is to use some test to screen the SNPs, retaining only those that meet some criterion for further study. For example, SNPs can be ranked by p-value, and those with the lowest p-values retained. When SNPs have large interaction effects but small marginal effects in a population, they are unlikely to be retained when univariate tests are used for screening. However, model-based screens that pre-specify interactions are impractical for data sets with thousands of SNPs. Random forest analysis is an alternative method that produces a single measure of importance for each predictor variable that takes into account interactions among variables without requiring model specification. Interactions increase the importance for the individual interacting variables, making them more likely to be given high importance relative to other variables. We test the performance of random forests as a screening procedure to identify small numbers of risk-associated SNPs from among large numbers of unassociated SNPs using complex disease models with up to 32 loci, incorporating both genetic heterogeneity and multi-locus interaction. Keeping other factors constant, if risk SNPs interact, the random forest importance measure significantly outperforms the Fisher Exact test as a screening tool. As the number of interacting SNPs increases, the improvement in performance of random forest analysis relative to Fisher Exact test for screening also increases. Random forests perform similarly to the univariate Fisher Exact test as a screening tool when SNPs in the analysis do not interact. In the context of large-scale genetic association studies where unknown interactions exist among true risk-associated SNPs or SNPs and environmental covariates, screening SNPs using random forest analyses can significantly reduce the number of SNPs that need to be retained for further study compared to standard univariate screening methods.

High nutrient pulses, tidal mixing and biological response in a small California estuary: Variability in nutrient concentrations from decadal to hourly time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caffrey, J.M.; Chapin, T.P.; Jannasch, H.W.; Haskins, J.C.

2007-01-01

Elkhorn Slough is a small estuary in Central California, where nutrient inputs are dominated by runoff from agricultural row crops, a golf course, and residential development. We examined the variability in nutrient concentrations from decadal to hourly time scales in Elkhorn Slough to compare forcing by physical and biological factors. Hourly data were collected using in situ nitrate analyzers and water quality data sondes, and two decades of monthly monitoring data were analyzed. Nutrient concentrations increased from the mid 1970s to 1990s as pastures and woodlands were converted to row crops and population increased in the watershed. Climatic variability was also a significant factor controlling interannual nutrient variability, with higher nutrient concentrations during wet than drought years. Elkhorn Slough has a Mediterranean climate with dry and rainy seasons. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were relatively low (10-70 ??mol L-1) during the dry season and high (20-160 ??mol L-1) during the rainy season. Dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) concentrations showed the inverse pattern, with higher concentrations during the dry season. Pulsed runoff events were a consistent feature controlling nitrate concentrations during the rainy season. Peak nitrate concentrations lagged runoff events by 1 to 6 days. Tidal exchange with Monterey Bay was also an important process controlling nutrient concentrations, particularly near the mouth of the Slough. Biological processes had the greatest effect on nitrate concentrations during the dry season and were less important during the rainy season. While primary production was enhanced by nutrient pulses, chlorophyll a concentrations were not. We believe that the generally weak biological response compared to the strong physical forcing in Elkhorn Slough occurred because the short residence time and tidal mixing rapidly diluted nutrient pulses. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating satellite remote sensing data and field data to predict rangeland structural indicators at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Okin, G.

2016-12-01

Rangelands provide a variety of important ecosystem goods and services across drylands globally. They are also the most important emitters of dust across the globe. Field data collection based on points does not represent spatially continuous information about surface variables and, given the vast size of the world's rangelands, cannot cover even a small fraction of their area. Remote sensing is potentially a labor- and time-saving method to observe important rangeland vegetation variables at both temporal and spatial scales. Information on vegetation cover, bare gap size, and plant height provide key rangeland vegetation variables in arid and semiarid rangelands, in part because they strongly impact dust emission and determine wildlife habitat characteristics. This study reports on relationships between remote sensing in the reflected solar spectrum and field measures related to these three variables, and shows how these relationships can be extended to produce spatially and temporally continuous datasets coupled with quantitative estimates of error. Field data for this study included over 3,800 Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring (AIM) measurements on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands throughout the western US. Remote sensing data were derived from MODIS nadir BRDF-adjusted reflectance (NBAR) and Landsat 8 OLI surface reflectance. Normalized bare gap size, total foliar cover, herbaceous cover and herbaceous height exhibit the greatest predictability from remote sensing variables with physically-reasonable relationships between remote sensing variables and field measures. Data fields produced using these relationships across the western US exhibit good agreement with independent high-resolution imagery.

Space-time dependence between energy sources and climate related energy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Borga, Marco; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Tøfte, Lena; Warland, Geir

2014-05-01

The European Renewable Energy Directive adopted in 2009 focuses on achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the EU overall energy mix by 2020. A major part of renewable energy production is related to climate, called "climate related energy" (CRE) production. CRE production systems (wind, solar, and hydropower) are characterized by a large degree of intermittency and variability on both short and long time scales due to the natural variability of climate variables. The main strategies to handle the variability of CRE production include energy-storage, -transport, -diversity and -information (smart grids). The three first strategies aim to smooth out the intermittency and variability of CRE production in time and space whereas the last strategy aims to provide a more optimal interaction between energy production and demand, i.e. to smooth out the residual load (the difference between demand and production). In order to increase the CRE share in the electricity system, it is essential to understand the space-time co-variability between the weather variables and CRE production under both current and future climates. This study presents a review of the literature that searches to tackle these problems. It reveals that the majority of studies deals with either a single CRE source or with the combination of two CREs, mostly wind and solar. This may be due to the fact that the most advanced countries in terms of wind equipment have also very little hydropower potential (Denmark, Ireland or UK, for instance). Hydropower is characterized by both a large storage capacity and flexibility in electricity production, and has therefore a large potential for both balancing and storing energy from wind- and solar-power. Several studies look at how to better connect regions with large share of hydropower (e.g., Scandinavia and the Alps) to regions with high shares of wind- and solar-power (e.g., green battery North-Sea net). Considering time scales, various studies consider wind and solar power production and their co-fluctuation at small time scales. The multi-scale nature of the variability is less studied, i.e., the potential adverse or favorable co-fluctuation at intermediate time scales involving water scarcity or abundance, is less present in the literature.Our review points out that it could be especially interesting to promote research on how the pronounced large-scale fluctuations in inflow to hydropower (intra-annual run-off) and smaller scale fluctuations in wind- and solar-power interact in an energy system. There is a need to better represent the profound difference between wind-, solar- and hydro-energy sources. On the one hand, they are all directly linked to the 2-D horizontal dynamics of meteorology. On the other hand, the branching structure of hydrological systems transforms this variability and governs the complex combination of natural inflows and reservoir storage.Finally, we note that the CRE production is, in addition to weather, also influenced by the energy system and market, i.e., the energy transport and demand across scales as well as changes of market regulation. The CRE production system lies thus in this nexus between climate, energy systems and market regulations. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk)

Assessing the Importance of Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Variability of Soil and Plant Parameters into Local Water Balance Models for Precision Agriculture: Investigations within a California Vineyard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, S.; Pierce, L.; Grote, K.; Rubin, Y.

2003-12-01

Due Due to the high cash crop nature of premium winegrapes, recent research has focused on developing a better understanding of the factors that influence winegrape spatial and temporal variability. Precision grapevine irrigation schemes require consideration of the factors that regulate vineyard water use such as (1) plant parameters, (2) climatic conditions, and (3) water availability in the soil as a function of soil texture. The inability to sample soil and plant parameters accurately, at a dense enough resolution, and over large enough areas has limited previous investigations focused on understanding the influences of soil water and vegetation on water balance at the local field scale. We have acquired several novel field data sets to describe the small scale (decimeters to a hundred meters) spatial variability of soil and plant parameters within a 4 acre field study site at the Robert Mondavi Winery in Napa County, California. At this site, we investigated the potential of ground penetrating radar data (GPR) for providing estimates of near surface water content. Calibration of grids of 900 MHz GPR groundwave data with conventional soil moisture measurements revealed that the GPR volumetric water content estimation approach was valid to within 1 percent accuracy, and that the data grids provided unparalleled density of soil water content over the field site as a function of season. High-resolution airborne multispectral remote sensing data was also collected at the study site, which was converted to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and correlated to leaf area index (LAI) using plant-based measurements within a parallel study. Meteorological information was available from a weather station of the California Irrigation management Information System, located less than a mile from our study area. The measurements were used within a 2-D Vineyard Soil Irrigation Model (VSIM), which can incorporate the spatially variable, high-resolution soil and plant-based information. VSIM, which is based on the concept that equilibrium exists between climate, soils, and LAI, was used to simulate vine water stress, water use, and irrigation requirements during a single year for the site. Using the simple water-balance model with the dense characterization data, we will discuss: (1) the ability to predict vineyard soil water content at the small scales of soil heterogeneity that are observed in nature at the local-scale, (2) the relative importance of plant, climate, and soil information to predictions of the soil water balance at the site, (3) the influence of crop cover in the water balance predictions.

Towards Cost-Effective Operational Monitoring Systems for Complex Waters: Analyzing Small-Scale Coastal Processes with Optical Transmissometry

PubMed Central

Gonçalves-Araujo, Rafael; Wiegmann, Sonja; Torrecilla, Elena; Bardaji, Raul; Röttgers, Rüdiger; Bracher, Astrid; Piera, Jaume

2017-01-01

The detection and prediction of changes in coastal ecosystems require a better understanding of the complex physical, chemical and biological interactions, which involves that observations should be performed continuously. For this reason, there is an increasing demand for small, simple and cost-effective in situ sensors to analyze complex coastal waters at a broad range of scales. In this context, this study seeks to explore the potential of beam attenuation spectra, c(λ), measured in situ with an advanced-technology optical transmissometer, for assessing temporal and spatial patterns in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay (NW Mediterranean) as a test site. In particular, the information contained in the spectral beam attenuation coefficient was assessed and linked with different biogeochemical variables. The attenuation at λ = 710 nm was used as a proxy for particle concentration, TSM, whereas a novel parameter was adopted as an optical indicator for chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration, based on the local maximum of c(λ) observed at the long-wavelength side of the red band Chl-a absorption peak. In addition, since coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) has an important influence on the beam attenuation spectral shape and complementary measurements of particle size distribution were available, the beam attenuation spectral slope was used to analyze the CDOM content. Results were successfully compared with optical and biogeochemical variables from laboratory analysis of collocated water samples, and statistically significant correlations were found between the attenuation proxies and the biogeochemical variables TSM, Chl-a and CDOM. This outcome depicted the potential of high-frequency beam attenuation measurements as a simple, continuous and cost-effective approach for rapid detection of changes and patterns in biogeochemical properties in complex coastal environments. PMID:28107539

A semi-urban case study of small scale variability of rainfall and run-off, with C- and X-band radars and the fully distributed hydrological model Multi-Hydro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves de Souza, Bianca; da Silva Rocha Paz, Igor; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2016-04-01

The complexity of urban hydrology results both from that of urban systems and the extreme rainfall variability. The latter can display strongly localised rain cells that can be extremely damaging when hitting vulnerable parts of urban systems. This paper investigates this complexity on a semi-urban sub-catchment - located in Massy (South of Paris, France) - of the Bievre river, which is known for its frequent flashfloods. Advanced geo-processing techniques were used to find the ideal pixel size for this 6.326km2 basin. C-band and X-band radar data are multifractally downscaled at various resolutions and input to the fully distributed hydrological model Multi-Hydro. The latter has been developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. It integrates validated modules dealing with surface flow, saturated and unsaturated surface flow, and sewer flow. The C-band radar is located in Trappes, approx. 21km East of the catchment, is operated by Méteo-France and has a resolution of 1km x 1km x 5min. The X-band radar operated by Ecole des Ponts Paris Tech on its campus has a resolution of 125m x 125m x 3.4min. The performed multifractal downscaling enables both the generation of large ensemble realizations and easy change of resolution (e.g. down to 10 m in the present study). This in turn allows a detailed analysis of the impacts of small scale variability and the required resolution to obtain accurate simulations, therefore predictions. This will be shown on two rainy episodes over the chosen sub-catchment of the Bievre river.

The Newcomb-Benford law in its relation to some common distributions.

PubMed

Formann, Anton K

2010-05-07

An often reported, but nevertheless persistently striking observation, formalized as the Newcomb-Benford law (NBL), is that the frequencies with which the leading digits of numbers occur in a large variety of data are far away from being uniform. Most spectacular seems to be the fact that in many data the leading digit 1 occurs in nearly one third of all cases. Explanations for this uneven distribution of the leading digits were, among others, scale- and base-invariance. Little attention, however, found the interrelation between the distribution of the significant digits and the distribution of the observed variable. It is shown here by simulation that long right-tailed distributions of a random variable are compatible with the NBL, and that for distributions of the ratio of two random variables the fit generally improves. Distributions not putting most mass on small values of the random variable (e.g. symmetric distributions) fail to fit. Hence, the validity of the NBL needs the predominance of small values and, when thinking of real-world data, a majority of small entities. Analyses of data on stock prices, the areas and numbers of inhabitants of countries, and the starting page numbers of papers from a bibliography sustain this conclusion. In all, these findings may help to understand the mechanisms behind the NBL and the conditions needed for its validity. That this law is not only of scientific interest per se, but that, in addition, it has also substantial implications can be seen from those fields where it was suggested to be put into practice. These fields reach from the detection of irregularities in data (e.g. economic fraud) to optimizing the architecture of computers regarding number representation, storage, and round-off errors.

The Effects Of Urban Landscape Patterns On Rainfall-Runoff Processes At Small Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.

2016-12-01

Many studies have indicated that urban landscape change may alter rainfall-runoff processes. However, how urban landscape pattern affect this process is little addressed. In this study, the hydrological effects of landscape pattern on rainfall-runoff processes at small-scale was explored. Twelve residential blocks with independent drainage systems in Beijing were selected as case study areas. Impervious metrics of these blocks, i.e., total impervious area (TIA) and directly connected impervious area (DCIA), were identified. A drainage index describing catchment general drainage load and the overland flow distance, Ad, was estimated and used as one of the landscape spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed to test the potential influence of impervious surface pattern on runoff processes. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated under different rainfall conditions by Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between landscape patterns and runoff variables were analyzed, and further among the three scenarios. The results demonstrated that, in small urban blocks, spatial patterns have inherent influences on rainfall-runoff processes. Specifically, (1) Imperviousness acts as effective indicators in predicting both Qt and Qp. As rainfall intensity increases, the major affecting factor changes from DCIA to TIA for both Qt and Qp; (2) Increasing the size of drainage area dominated by each drainage inlet will benefit the block peak flow mitigation; (3) Different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp, when impervious surfaces located away from the outlet can reduce the peak flow discharge. These findings may provide insights into the role of urban landscape patterns in driving rainfall-runoff responses in urbanization, which is essential for urban planning and stormwater management.

Inferring Processes from Spatial Patterns: The Role of Directional and Non–Directional Forces in Shaping Fish Larvae Distribution in a Freshwater Lake System

PubMed Central

Bertolo, Andrea; Blanchet, F. Guillaume; Magnan, Pierre; Brodeur, Philippe; Mingelbier, Marc; Legendre, Pierre

2012-01-01

Larval dispersal is a crucial factor for fish recruitment. For fishes with relatively small-bodied larvae, drift has the potential to play a more important role than active habitat selection in determining larval dispersal; therefore, we expect small-bodied fish larvae to be poorly associated with habitat characteristics. To test this hypothesis, we used as model yellow perch (Perca flavescens), whose larvae are among the smallest among freshwater temperate fishes. Thus, we analysed the habitat association of yellow perch larvae at multiple spatial scales in a large shallow fluvial lake by explicitly modelling directional (e.g. due to water currents) and non-directional (e.g. due to aggregation) spatial patterns. This allowed us to indirectly assess the relative roles of drift (directional process) and potential habitat choice on larval dispersal. Our results give weak support to the drift hypothesis, whereas yellow perch show a strong habitat association at unexpectedly small sizes, when compared to other systems. We found consistent non-directional patterns in larvae distributions at both broad and medium spatial scales but only few significant directional components. The environmental variables alone (e.g. vegetation) generally explained a significant and biologically relevant fraction of the variation in fish larvae distribution data. These results suggest that (i) drift plays a minor role in this shallow system, (ii) larvae display spatial patterns that only partially covary with environmental variables, and (iii) larvae are associated to specific habitats. By suggesting that habitat association potentially includes an active choice component for yellow perch larvae, our results shed new light on the ecology of freshwater fish larvae and should help in building more realistic recruitment models. PMID:23185585

A deeper view of insight in schizophrenia: Insight dimensions, unawareness and misattribution of particular symptoms and its relation with psychopathological factors.

PubMed

Pousa, Esther; Ochoa, Susana; Cobo, Jesús; Nieto, Lourdes; Usall, Judith; Gonzalez, Beatriz; Garcia-Ribera, Carles; Pérez Solà, Victor; Ruiz, Ada-I; Baños, Iris; Cobo, Jesús; García-Ribera, Carles; González, Beatriz; Massons, Carmina; Nieto, Lourdes; Monserrat, Clara; Ochoa, Susana; Pousa, Esther; Ruiz, Ada-Inmaculada; Ruiz, Isabel; Sanchez-Cabezudo, Dolores; Usall, Judith

2017-11-01

1. To describe insight in a large sample of schizophrenia subjects from a multidimensional point of view, including unawareness of general insight dimensions as well as unawareness and misattribution of particular symptoms. 2. To explore the relationship between unawareness and clinical and socio-demographic variables. 248 schizophrenia patients were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS, five factor model of Lindenmayer) and the full Scale of Unawareness of Mental Disorder (SUMD). Bivariate associations and multiple linear regression analyses were used to investigate the relationship between unawareness, symptoms and socio-demographic variables. Around 40% of the sample showed unawareness of mental disorder, of the need for medication and of the social consequences. Levels of unawareness and misattribution of particular symptoms varied considerably. General unawareness dimensions showed small significant correlations with positive, cognitive and excitement factors of psychopathology, whereas these symptom factors showed higher correlations with unawareness of particular symptoms. Similarly, regression models showed a small significant predictive value of positive symptoms in the three general unawareness dimensions while a moderate one in the prediction of particular symptoms. Misattribution showed no significant correlations with any symptom factors. Results confirm that insight in schizophrenia is a multi-phased phenomenon and that unawareness into particular symptoms varies widely. The overlap between unawareness dimensions and psychopathology is small and seems to be restricted to positive and cognitive symptoms, supporting the accounts from cognitive neurosciences that suggest that besides basic cognition poor insight may be in part a failure of self-reflection or strategic metacognition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferring landscape-scale land-use impacts on rivers using data from mesocosm experiments and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Magierowski, Regina H; Read, Steve M; Carter, Steven J B; Warfe, Danielle M; Cook, Laurie S; Lefroy, Edward C; Davies, Peter E

2015-01-01

Identifying land-use drivers of changes in river condition is complicated by spatial scale, geomorphological context, land management, and correlations among responding variables such as nutrients and sediments. Furthermore, variations in standard metrics, such as substratum composition, do not necessarily relate causally to ecological impacts. Consequently, the absence of a significant relationship between a hypothesised driver and a dependent variable does not necessarily indicate the absence of a causal relationship. We conducted a gradient survey to identify impacts of catchment-scale grazing by domestic livestock on river macroinvertebrate communities. A standard correlative approach showed that community structure was strongly related to the upstream catchment area under grazing. We then used data from a stream mesocosm experiment that independently quantified the impacts of nutrients and fine sediments on macroinvertebrate communities to train artificial neural networks (ANNs) to assess the relative influence of nutrients and fine sediments on the survey sites from their community composition. The ANNs developed to predict nutrient impacts did not find a relationship between nutrients and catchment area under grazing, suggesting that nutrients were not an important factor mediating grazing impacts on community composition, or that these ANNs had no generality or insufficient power at the landscape-scale. In contrast, ANNs trained to predict the impacts of fine sediments indicated a significant relationship between fine sediments and catchment area under grazing. Macroinvertebrate communities at sites with a high proportion of land under grazing were thus more similar to those resulting from high fine sediments in a mesocosm experiment than to those resulting from high nutrients. Our study confirms that 1) fine sediment is an important mediator of land-use impacts on river macroinvertebrate communities, 2) ANNs can successfully identify subtle effects and separate the effects of correlated variables, and 3) data from small-scale experiments can generate relationships that help explain landscape-scale patterns.

Inferring Landscape-Scale Land-Use Impacts on Rivers Using Data from Mesocosm Experiments and Artificial Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Magierowski, Regina H.; Read, Steve M.; Carter, Steven J. B.; Warfe, Danielle M.; Cook, Laurie S.; Lefroy, Edward C.; Davies, Peter E.

2015-01-01

Identifying land-use drivers of changes in river condition is complicated by spatial scale, geomorphological context, land management, and correlations among responding variables such as nutrients and sediments. Furthermore, variations in standard metrics, such as substratum composition, do not necessarily relate causally to ecological impacts. Consequently, the absence of a significant relationship between a hypothesised driver and a dependent variable does not necessarily indicate the absence of a causal relationship. We conducted a gradient survey to identify impacts of catchment-scale grazing by domestic livestock on river macroinvertebrate communities. A standard correlative approach showed that community structure was strongly related to the upstream catchment area under grazing. We then used data from a stream mesocosm experiment that independently quantified the impacts of nutrients and fine sediments on macroinvertebrate communities to train artificial neural networks (ANNs) to assess the relative influence of nutrients and fine sediments on the survey sites from their community composition. The ANNs developed to predict nutrient impacts did not find a relationship between nutrients and catchment area under grazing, suggesting that nutrients were not an important factor mediating grazing impacts on community composition, or that these ANNs had no generality or insufficient power at the landscape-scale. In contrast, ANNs trained to predict the impacts of fine sediments indicated a significant relationship between fine sediments and catchment area under grazing. Macroinvertebrate communities at sites with a high proportion of land under grazing were thus more similar to those resulting from high fine sediments in a mesocosm experiment than to those resulting from high nutrients. Our study confirms that 1) fine sediment is an important mediator of land-use impacts on river macroinvertebrate communities, 2) ANNs can successfully identify subtle effects and separate the effects of correlated variables, and 3) data from small-scale experiments can generate relationships that help explain landscape-scale patterns. PMID:25775245

Detecting small-scale spatial differences and temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks: a comparison between automatic chamber-derived C budgets and repeated soil inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Mathias; Jurisch, Nicole; Garcia Alba, Juana; Albiac Borraz, Elisa; Schmidt, Marten; Huth, Vytas; Rogasik, Helmut; Rieckh, Helene; Verch, Gernot; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in soils plays a key role in the global C cycle. It is therefore crucial to adequately monitor dynamics in soil organic carbon (ΔSOC) stocks when aiming to reveal underlying processes and potential drivers. However, small-scale spatial and temporal changes in SOC stocks, particularly pronounced on arable lands, are hard to assess. The main reasons for this are limitations of the well-established methods. On the one hand, repeated soil inventories, often used in long-term field trials, reveal spatial patterns and trends in ΔSOC but require a longer observation period and a sufficient number of repetitions. On the other hand, eddy covariance measurements of C fluxes towards a complete C budget of the soil-plant-atmosphere system may help to obtain temporal ΔSOC patterns but lack small-scale spatial resolution. To overcome these limitations, this study presents a reliable method to detect both short-term temporal as well as small-scale spatial dynamics of ΔSOC. Therefore, a combination of automatic chamber (AC) measurements of CO2 exchange and empirically modeled aboveground biomass development (NPPshoot) was used. To verify our method, results were compared with ΔSOC observed by soil resampling. AC measurements were performed from 2010 to 2014 under a silage maize/winter fodder rye/sorghum-Sudan grass hybrid/alfalfa crop rotation at a colluvial depression located in the hummocky ground moraine landscape of NE Germany. Widespread in large areas of the formerly glaciated Northern Hemisphere, this depression type is characterized by a variable groundwater level (GWL) and pronounced small-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil properties, such as SOC and nitrogen (Nt). After monitoring the initial stage during 2010, soil erosion was experimentally simulated by incorporating topsoil material from an eroded midslope soil into the plough layer of the colluvial depression. SOC stocks were quantified before and after soil manipulation and at the end of the study period. AC-based ΔSOC values corresponded well with the tendencies and magnitude of the results observed in the repeated soil inventory. The period of maximum plant growth was identified as being most important for the development of spatial differences in annual ΔSOC. Hence, we were able to confirm that AC-based C budgets are able to reveal small-scale spatial and short-term temporal dynamics of ΔSOC.

Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-02-28

Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

Water erosion and climate change in a small alpine catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berteni, Francesca; Grossi, Giovanna

2017-04-01

WATER EROSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALL ALPINE CATCHMENT Francesca Berteni, Giovanna Grossi A change in the mean and variability of some variables of the climate system is expected to affect the sediment yield of mountainous areas in several ways: for example through soil temperature and precipitation peak intensity change, permafrost thawing, snow- and ice-melt time shifting. Water erosion, sediment transport and yield and the effects of climate change on these physical phenomena are the focus of this work. The study area is a small mountainous basin, the Guerna creek watershed, located in the Central Southern Alps. The sensitivity of sediment yield estimates to a change of condition of the climate system may be investigated through the application of different models, each characterized by its own features and limits. In this preliminary analysis two different empirical mathematical models are considered: RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1991) and EPM (Erosion Potential Method; Gavrilovic, 1988). These models are implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) supporting the management of the territorial database used to estimate relevant geomorphological parameters and to create different thematic maps. From one side the geographical and geomorphological information is required (land use, slope and hydrogeological instability, resistance to erosion, lithological characterization and granulometric composition). On the other side the knowledge of the weather-climate parameters (precipitation and temperature data) is fundamental as well to evaluate the intensity and variability of the erosive processes and estimate the sediment yield at the basin outlet. Therefore different climate change scenarios were considered in order to tentatively assess the impact on the water erosion and sediment yield at the small basin scale. Keywords: water erosion, sediment yield, climate change, empirical mathematical models, EPM, RUSLE, GIS, Guerna

Scale interaction and arrangement in a turbulent boundary layer perturbed by a wall-mounted cylindrical element

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhanqi; Jiang, Nan

2018-05-01

This study reports the modifications of scale interaction and arrangement in a turbulent boundary layer perturbed by a wall-mounted circular cylinder. Hot-wire measurements were executed at multiple streamwise and wall-normal wise locations downstream of the cylindrical element. The streamwise fluctuating signals were decomposed into large-, small-, and dissipative-scale signatures by corresponding cutoff filters. The scale interaction under the cylindrical perturbation was elaborated by comparing the small- and dissipative-scale amplitude/frequency modulation effects downstream of the cylinder element with the results observed in the unperturbed case. It was obtained that the large-scale fluctuations perform a stronger amplitude modulation on both the small and dissipative scales in the near-wall region. At the wall-normal positions of the cylinder height, the small-scale amplitude modulation coefficients are redistributed by the cylinder wake. The similar observation was noted in small-scale frequency modulation; however, the dissipative-scale frequency modulation seems to be independent of the cylindrical perturbation. The phase-relationship observation indicated that the cylindrical perturbation shortens the time shifts between both the small- and dissipative-scale variations (amplitude and frequency) and large-scale fluctuations. Then, the integral time scale dependence of the phase-relationship between the small/dissipative scales and large scales was also discussed. Furthermore, the discrepancy of small- and dissipative-scale time shifts relative to the large-scale motions was examined, which indicates that the small-scale amplitude/frequency leads the dissipative scales.

Information content of IRIS spectra. [from Nimbus 4 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, J. C.

1974-01-01

Spectra from the satellite instrument IRIS (infra red interferometer spectrometer) were examined to find the number of independent variables needed to describe these broadband high spectral resolution data. The radiated power in the atmospheric window from 771 to 981/cm was the first parameter chosen for fitting observed spectra. At succeeding levels of analysis the residual variability (observed spectrum - best fit spectrum) in an ensemble of observations was partioned into spectral eigenvectors. The eigenvector describing the largest fraction of this variability was examined for a strong spectral signature; the power in the corresponding spectral band was then used as the next fitting parameter. The measured power in nine spectral intervals, when inserted in the spectral fitting functions, was adequate to describe most spectra to within the noise level of IRIS. Considerations of relative signal strength and scales of atmospheric variability suggest a combination sounder (multichannel-broad field of view) scanner (window channel-small field of view) as an efficient observing instrument.

Information content in Iris spectra. [Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer of Nimbus 4 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, J. C.

1975-01-01

Spectra from the satellite instrument Iris (infrared interferometer spectrometer) were examined to find the number of independent variables needed to describe the broad-band high-resolution spectral data. The radiated power in the atmospheric window from 771 to 981 per cm was the first parameter chosen for fitting observed spectra. At succeeding levels of analysis, the residual variability (observed spectrum minus best-fit spectrum) in an ensemble of observations was partitioned into spectral eigenvectors. The eigenvector describing the largest fraction of this variability was examined for a strong spectral signature; the power in the corresponding spectral band was then used as the next fitting parameter. The measured power in nine spectral intervals, when it was inserted in the spectral-fitting functions, was adequate to describe most spectra to within the noise level of Iris. Considerations of relative signal strength and scales of atmospheric variability suggest a combination sounder (multichannel, broad field of view) scanner (window channel, small field of view) as an efficient observing instrument.

Experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies of small scale combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bo

Recently, the demand increased for the development of microdevices such as microsatellites, microaerial vehicles, micro reactors, and micro power generators. To meet those demands the biggest challenge is obtaining stable and complete combustion at relatively small scale. To gain a fundamental understanding of small scale combustion in this thesis, thermal and kinetic coupling between the gas phase and the structure at meso and micro scales were theoretically, experimentally, and numerically studied; new stabilization and instability phenomena were identified; and new theories for the dynamic mechanisms of small scale combustion were developed. The reduction of thermal inertia at small scale significantly reduces the response time of the wall and leads to a strong flame-wall coupling and extension of burning limits. Mesoscale flame propagation and extinction in small quartz tubes were theoretically, experimentally and numerically studied. It was found that wall-flame interaction in mesoscale combustion led to two different flame regimes, a heat-loss dominant fast flame regime and a wall-flame coupling slow flame regime. The nonlinear transition between the two flame regimes was strongly dependent on the channel width and flow velocity. It is concluded that the existence of multiple flame regimes is an inherent phenomenon in mesoscale combustion. In addition, all practical combustors have variable channel width in the direction of flame propagation. Quasi-steady and unsteady propagations of methane and propane-air premixed flames in a mesoscale divergent channel were investigated experimentally and theoretically. The emphasis was the impact of variable cross-section area and the flame-wall coupling on the flame transition between different regimes and the onset of flame instability. For the first time, spinning flames were experimentally observed for both lean and rich methane and propane-air mixtures in a broad range of equivalence ratios. An effective Lewis number to describe the competition between the mass transport in gas phase and the heat conduction in gas and solid phases was defined. Experimental observation and theoretical analysis suggested that the flame-wall coupling significantly increased the effective Lewis number and led to a new mechanism to promote the thermal diffusion instability. Due to the short flow residence time in small scale combustion, reactants, and oxidizers may not be able to be fully premixed before combustion. As such, non-premixed combustion plays an important role. Non-premixed mixing layer combustion within a constrained mesoscale channel was studied. Depending on the flow rate, it was found that there were two different flame regimes, an unsteady bimodal flame regime and a flame street regime with multiple stable triple flamelets. This multiple triple flame structure was identified experimentally for the first time. A scaling analytical model was developed to qualitatively explain the mechanism of flame streets. The effects of flow velocity, wall temperature, and Lewis number on the distance between flamelets and the diffusion flame length were also investigated. The results showed that the occurrence of flame street regimes was a combined effect of heat loss, curvature, diffusion, and dilution. To complete this thesis, experiments were conducted to measure the OH concentration using Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) in a confined mesoscale combustor. Some preliminary results have been obtained for the OH concentration of flamelets in a flame street. When the scale of the micro reactor is further reduced, the rarefied gas effect may become significant. In this thesis, a new concentration slip model to describe the rarefied gas effect on the species transport in microscale chemical reactors was obtained. The present model is general and recovers the existing models in the limiting cases. The analytical results showed the concentration slip was dominated by two different mechanisms, the surface reaction induced concentration slip (RIC) and the temperature slip induced concentration slip (TIC). It is found that the magnitude of RIC slip was proportional to the product of the Damkohler number and Knudsen number. The results showed the impact of reaction induced concentration slip (RIC slip) effects on catalytic reactions strongly depended on the Damkohler number, the Knudsen number, and the surface accommodation coefficient.

Alignment of nematic liquid crystals by inhomogeneous surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ong, Hiap Liew; Hurd, Alan J.; Meyer, Robert B.

1985-01-01

Variable oblique alignment of nematic liquid crystals has been achieved on microscopically inhomogeneous surfaces. The surfaces consist of small patches favoring vertical (homeotropic) alignment surrounded by a matrix favoring a planar alignment. The construction of these surfaces employs randomly distributed microscopic metal islands formed by certain metals as vapor-deposited films. Larger scale periodic patterns were made as well to verify the techniques. The results are interpreted in terms of a continuum elasticity theory and azimuthal degeneracy is also discussed.

Sedimentation of Inertialess Particles in Stokes Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höfer, Richard M.

2018-05-01

We investigate the sedimentation of a cloud of rigid, spherical particles of identical radii under gravity in a Stokes fluid. Both inertia and rotation of particles are neglected. We consider the homogenization limit of many small particles in the case of a dilute system in which interactions between particles are still important. In the relevant time scale, we rigorously prove convergence of the dynamics to the solution of a macroscopic equation. This macroscopic equation resembles the Stokes equations for a fluid of variable density subject to gravitation.

OpenSim: A Flexible Distributed Neural Network Simulator with Automatic Interactive Graphics.

PubMed

Jarosch, Andreas; Leber, Jean Francois

1997-06-01

An object-oriented simulator called OpenSim is presented that achieves a high degree of flexibility by relying on a small set of building blocks. The state variables and algorithms put in this framework can easily be accessed through a command shell. This allows one to distribute a large-scale simulation over several workstations and to generate the interactive graphics automatically. OpenSim opens new possibilities for cooperation among Neural Network researchers. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Relating thematic mapper bands TM3, TM4, and TM5 to agronomic variables for corn, cotton, sugarbeet, soybean, sorghum, sunflower and tobacco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, C. J. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Red, photographic infrared, near infrared spectral data of corn, cotton, soybeans, sugar beets, sorghum, sunflowers and tobacco were collected throughout the entire growing season by using a three band handheld radiometer. Different radiance patterns were found among these crops based on their morphology, green biomass duration and leaf size. Results show near infrared radiance is a good indicator of water content in plant tissue under small scale experimental conditions.

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

Proximate and landscape factors influence grassland bird distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cunningham, M.A.; Johnson, D.H.

2006-01-01

Ecologists increasingly recognize that birds can respond to features well beyond their normal areas of activity, but little is known about the relative importance of landscapes and proximate factors or about the scales of landscapes that influence bird distributions. We examined the influences of tree cover at both proximate and landscape scales on grassland birds, a group of birds of high conservation concern, in the Sheyenne National Grassland in North Dakota, USA. The Grassland contains a diverse array of grassland and woodland habitats. We surveyed breeding birds on 2015 100 m long transect segments during 2002 and 2003. We modeled the occurrence of 19 species in relation to habitat features (percentages of grassland, woodland, shrubland, and wetland) within each 100-m segment and to tree cover within 200-1600 m of the segment. We used information-theoretic statistical methods to compare models and variables. At the proximate scales, tree cover was the most important variable, having negative influences on 13 species and positive influences on two species. In a comparison of multiple scales, models with only proximate variables were adequate for some species, but models combining proximate with landscape information were best for 17 of 19 species. Landscape-only models were rarely competitive. Combined models at the largest scales (800-1600 m) were best for 12 of 19 species. Seven species had best models including 1600-m landscapes plus proximate factors in at least one year. These were Wilson's Phalarope (Phalaropus tricolor), Sedge Wren (Cistothorus platensis), Field Sparrow (Spizella pusilla), Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Bobolink (Dolychonix oryzivorus), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater). These seven are small-bodied species; thus larger-bodied species do not necessarily respond most to the largest landscapes. Our findings suggest that birds respond to habitat features at a variety of scales. Models with only landscape-scale tree cover were rarely competitive, indicating that broad-scale modeling alone, such as that based solely on remotely sensed data, is likely to be inadequate in explaining species distributions. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimation of hectare-scale soil-moisture characteristics from aquifer-test data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moench, A.F.

2003-01-01

Analysis of a 72-h, constant-rate aquifer test conducted in a coarse-grained and highly permeable, glacial outwash deposit on Cape Cod, Massachusetts revealed that drawdowns measured in 20 piezometers located at various depths below the water table and distances from the pumped well were significantly influenced by effects of drainage from the vadose zone. The influence was greatest in piezometers located close to the water table and diminished with increasing depth. The influence of the vadose zone was evident from a gap, in the intermediate-time zone, between measured drawdowns and drawdowns computed under the assumption that drainage from the vadose zone occurred instantaneously in response to a decline in the elevation of the water table. By means of an analytical model that was designed to account for time-varying drainage, simulated drawdowns could be closely fitted to measured drawdowns regardless of the piezometer locations. Because of the exceptional quality and quantity of the data and the relatively small aquifer heterogeneity, it was possible by inverse modeling to estimate all relevant aquifer parameters and a set of three empirical constants used in the upper-boundary condition to account for the dynamic drainage process. The empirical constants were used to define a one-dimensional (ID) drainage versus time curve that is assumed to be representative of the bulk material overlying the water table. The curve was inverted with a parameter estimation algorithm and a ID numerical model for variably saturated flow to obtain soil-moisture retention curves and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity relationships defined by the Brooks and Corey equations. Direct analysis of the aquifer-test data using a parameter estimation algorithm and a two-dimensional, axisymmetric numerical model for variably saturated flow yielded similar soil-moisture characteristics. Results suggest that hectare-scale soil-moisture characteristics are different from core-scale predictions and even relatively small amounts of fine-grained material and heterogeneity can dominate the large-scale soil-moisture characteristics and aquifer response. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

Finite-difference modeling with variable grid-size and adaptive time-step in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinxin; Yin, Xingyao; Wu, Guochen

2014-04-01

Forward modeling of elastic wave propagation in porous media has great importance for understanding and interpreting the influences of rock properties on characteristics of seismic wavefield. However, the finite-difference forward-modeling method is usually implemented with global spatial grid-size and time-step; it consumes large amounts of computational cost when small-scaled oil/gas-bearing structures or large velocity-contrast exist underground. To overcome this handicap, combined with variable grid-size and time-step, this paper developed a staggered-grid finite-difference scheme for elastic wave modeling in porous media. Variable finite-difference coefficients and wavefield interpolation were used to realize the transition of wave propagation between regions of different grid-size. The accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm were shown by numerical examples. The proposed method is advanced with low computational cost in elastic wave simulation for heterogeneous oil/gas reservoirs.

A large-scale study of the random variability of a coding sequence: a study on the CFTR gene.

PubMed

Modiano, Guido; Bombieri, Cristina; Ciminelli, Bianca Maria; Belpinati, Francesca; Giorgi, Silvia; Georges, Marie des; Scotet, Virginie; Pompei, Fiorenza; Ciccacci, Cinzia; Guittard, Caroline; Audrézet, Marie Pierre; Begnini, Angela; Toepfer, Michael; Macek, Milan; Ferec, Claude; Claustres, Mireille; Pignatti, Pier Franco

2005-02-01

Coding single nucleotide substitutions (cSNSs) have been studied on hundreds of genes using small samples (n(g) approximately 100-150 genes). In the present investigation, a large random European population sample (average n(g) approximately 1500) was studied for a single gene, the CFTR (Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane conductance Regulator). The nonsynonymous (NS) substitutions exhibited, in accordance with previous reports, a mean probability of being polymorphic (q > 0.005), much lower than that of the synonymous (S) substitutions, but they showed a similar rate of subpolymorphic (q < 0.005) variability. This indicates that, in autosomal genes that may have harmful recessive alleles (nonduplicated genes with important functions), genetic drift overwhelms selection in the subpolymorphic range of variability, making disadvantageous alleles behave as neutral. These results imply that the majority of the subpolymorphic nonsynonymous alleles of these genes are selectively negative or even pathogenic.

Hydrologic-energy balance constraints on the Holocene lake-level history of lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, H. D.; Dunbar, R. B.

2004-09-01

A basin-scale hydrologic-energy balance model that integrates modern climatological, hydrological, and hypsographic observations was developed for the modern Lake Titicaca watershed (northern Altiplano, South America) and operated under variable conditions to understand controls on post-glacial changes in lake level. The model simulates changes in five environmental variables (air temperature, cloud fraction, precipitation, relative humidity, and land surface albedo). Relatively small changes in three meteorological variables (mean annual precipitation, temperature, and/or cloud fraction) explain the large mid-Holocene lake-level decrease (˜85 m) inferred from seismic reflection profiling and supported by sediment-based paleoproxies from lake sediments. Climatic controls that shape the present-day Altiplano and the sediment-based record of Holocene lake-level change are combined to interpret model-derived lake-level simulations in terms of changes in the mean state of ENSO and its impact on moisture transport to the Altiplano.

Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

Community regulation: the relative importance of recruitment and predation intensity of an intertidal community dominant in a seascape context.

PubMed

Rilov, Gil; Schiel, David R

2011-01-01

Predicting the strength and context-dependency of species interactions across multiple scales is a core area in ecology. This is especially challenging in the marine environment, where populations of most predators and prey are generally open, because of their pelagic larval phase, and recruitment of both is highly variable. In this study we use a comparative-experimental approach on small and large spatial scales to test the relationship between predation intensity and prey recruitment and their relative importance in shaping populations of a dominant rocky intertidal space occupier, mussels, in the context of seascape (availability of nearby subtidal reef habitat). Predation intensity on transplanted mussels was tested inside and outside cages and recruitment was measured with standard larval settlement collectors. We found that on intertidal rocky benches with contiguous subtidal reefs in New Zealand, mussel larval recruitment is usually low but predation on recruits by subtidal consumers (fish, crabs) is intense during high tide. On nearby intertidal rocky benches with adjacent sandy subtidal habitats, larval recruitment is usually greater but subtidal predators are typically rare and predation is weaker. Multiple regression analysis showed that predation intensity accounts for most of the variability in the abundance of adult mussels compared to recruitment. This seascape-dependent, predation-recruitment relationship could scale up to explain regional community variability. We argue that community ecology models should include seascape context-dependency and its effects on recruitment and species interactions for better predictions of coastal community dynamics and structure.

Impact of small-scale storage systems on the photovoltaic penetration potential at the municipal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez Camargo, Luis; Dorner, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

The yearly cumulated technical energy generation potential of grid-connected roof-top photovoltaic power plants is significantly larger than the demand of domestic buildings in sparsely populated municipalities in central Europe. However, an energy balance with cumulated annual values does not deliver the right picture about the actual potential for photovoltaics since these run on a highly variable energy source as solar radiation. The mismatch between the periods of generation and demand creates hard limitations for the deployment of the theoretical energy generation potential of roof-top photovoltaics. The actual penetration of roof-top photovoltaic is restricted by the energy quality requirements of the grid and/or the available storage capacity for the electricity production beyond the coverage of own demands. In this study we evaluate in how far small-scale storage systems can contribute to increment the grid-connected roof-top photovoltaic penetration in domestic buildings at a municipal scale. To accomplish this, we calculate, in a first step, the total technical roof-top photovoltaic energy generation potential of a municipality in a high spatiotemporal resolution using a procedure that relies on geographic information systems. Posteriorly, we constrain the set of potential photovoltaic plants to the ones that would be necessary to cover the total yearly demand of the municipality. We assume that photovoltaic plants with the highest yearly yield are the ones that should be installed. For this sub-set of photovoltaic plants we consider five scenarios: 1) no storage 2) one 7 kWh battery is installed in every building with a roof-top photovoltaic plant 3) one 10 kWh battery is installed in every building with a roof-top photovoltaic plant 4) one 7 kWh battery is installed in every domestic building in the municipality 5) one 10 kWh battery is installed in every domestic building in the municipality. Afterwards we evaluate the energy balance of the municipality using a series of indicators. These indicators include: a) the total photovoltaic installed capacity, b) the total storage installed capacity, c) the output variability, d) the total unfulfilled demand, e) total excess energy, f) total properly supplied energy, g) the loss of power supply probability, h) the amount of hours of supply higher than the highest demand in a year, i) the number of hours, when supply is 1.5. times higher than the highest demand in a year, and j) the additional storage energy capacity and power required to store all excess energy generated by the photovoltaic installations. The comparison of the proposed indicators serves to quantify the contribution that household-sized small-scale storage systems would make to the energy balance of the studied municipality. Increased installed energy storage capacity allows a higher roof-top photovoltaic share and improves energy utilization, variability and reliability indicators. The proposed methodology serves also to determine the amount of storage capacity with the highest positive impact on the local energy balance.

Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenson, Naomi L.

Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.

Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith R.

2016-08-01

The overall goal is to downscale ocean conditions predicted by an existing global prediction system and evaluate the results using observations from the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean. The first step is to develop a one-way nested regional model and evaluate its predictions using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system on the shelf because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is not because the regional model's dynamics are flawed but rather is the result of internally generated variability in deep water that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system. To overcome this problem, the next step is to spectrally nudge the regional model to the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the global system. It is shown this leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cutoff wavelength of the spectral nudging.

Local adaptation in Trinidadian guppies alters stream ecosystem structure at landscape scales despite high environmental variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simon, Troy N.; Bassar, Ronald D.; Binderup, Andrew J.; Flecker, Alex S.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gilliam, James F.; Marshall, Michael C.; Thomas, Steve A.; Travis, Joseph; Reznick, David N.; Pringle, Catherine M.

2017-01-01

While previous studies have shown that evolutionary divergence alters ecological processes in small-scale experiments, a major challenge is to assess whether such evolutionary effects are important in natural ecosystems at larger spatial scales. At the landscape scale, across eight streams in the Caroni drainage, we found that the presence of locally adapted populations of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) is associated with reduced algal biomass and increased invertebrate biomass, while the opposite trends were true in streams with experimentally introduced populations of non-locally adapted guppies. Exclusion experiments conducted in two separate reaches of a single stream showed that guppies with locally adapted phenotypes significantly reduced algae with no effect on invertebrates, while non-adapted guppies had no effect on algae but significantly reduced invertebrates. These divergent effects of phenotype on stream ecosystems are comparable in strength to the effects of abiotic factors (e.g., light) known to be important drivers of ecosystem condition. They also corroborate the results of previous experiments conducted in artificial streams. Our results demonstrate that local adaptation can produce phenotypes with significantly different effects in natural ecosystems at a landscape scale, within a tropical watershed, despite high variability in abiotic factors: five of the seven physical and chemical parameters measured across the eight study streams varied by more than one order of magnitude. Our findings suggest that ecosystem structure is, in part, an evolutionary product and not simply an ecological pattern.

Hydrologic Landscape Regionalisation Using Deductive Classification and Random Forests

PubMed Central

Brown, Stuart C.; Lester, Rebecca E.; Versace, Vincent L.; Fawcett, Jonathon; Laurenson, Laurie

2014-01-01

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents. PMID:25396410

Hydrologic landscape regionalisation using deductive classification and random forests.

PubMed

Brown, Stuart C; Lester, Rebecca E; Versace, Vincent L; Fawcett, Jonathon; Laurenson, Laurie

2014-01-01

Landscape classification and hydrological regionalisation studies are being increasingly used in ecohydrology to aid in the management and research of aquatic resources. We present a methodology for classifying hydrologic landscapes based on spatial environmental variables by employing non-parametric statistics and hybrid image classification. Our approach differed from previous classifications which have required the use of an a priori spatial unit (e.g. a catchment) which necessarily results in the loss of variability that is known to exist within those units. The use of a simple statistical approach to identify an appropriate number of classes eliminated the need for large amounts of post-hoc testing with different number of groups, or the selection and justification of an arbitrary number. Using statistical clustering, we identified 23 distinct groups within our training dataset. The use of a hybrid classification employing random forests extended this statistical clustering to an area of approximately 228,000 km2 of south-eastern Australia without the need to rely on catchments, landscape units or stream sections. This extension resulted in a highly accurate regionalisation at both 30-m and 2.5-km resolution, and a less-accurate 10-km classification that would be more appropriate for use at a continental scale. A smaller case study, of an area covering 27,000 km2, demonstrated that the method preserved the intra- and inter-catchment variability that is known to exist in local hydrology, based on previous research. Preliminary analysis linking the regionalisation to streamflow indices is promising suggesting that the method could be used to predict streamflow behaviour in ungauged catchments. Our work therefore simplifies current classification frameworks that are becoming more popular in ecohydrology, while better retaining small-scale variability in hydrology, thus enabling future attempts to explain and visualise broad-scale hydrologic trends at the scale of catchments and continents.

Modeling a historical mountain pine beetle outbreak using Landsat MSS and multiple lines of evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Sibold, Jason; Reich, Robin M.

2014-01-01

Mountain pine beetles are significant forest disturbance agents, capable of inducing widespread mortality in coniferous forests in western North America. Various remote sensing approaches have assessed the impacts of beetle outbreaks over the last two decades. However, few studies have addressed the impacts of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks, including the 1970s event that impacted Glacier National Park. The lack of spatially explicit data on this disturbance represents both a major data gap and a critical research challenge in that wildfire has removed some of the evidence from the landscape. We utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We incorporate historical aerial and landscape photos, aerial detection survey data, a nine-year collection of satellite imagery and abiotic data. This study presents a remote sensing based framework to (1) relate measurements of canopy mortality from fine-scale aerial photography to coarse-scale multispectral imagery and (2) classify the severity of mountain pine beetle affected areas using a temporal sequence of Landsat data and other landscape variables. We sampled canopy mortality in 261 plots from aerial photos and found that insect effects on mortality were evident in changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over time. We tested multiple spectral indices and found that a combination of NDVI and the green band resulted in the strongest model. We report a two-step process where we utilize a generalized least squares model to account for the large-scale variability in the data and a binary regression tree to describe the small-scale variability. The final model had a root mean square error estimate of 9.8% canopy mortality, a mean absolute error of 7.6% and an R2 of 0.82. The results demonstrate that a model of percent canopy mortality as a continuous variable can be developed to identify a gradient of mountain pine beetle severity on the landscape.

Geomorphic and substrate controls on spatial variability in river solute transport and biogeochemical cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaen, Phillip; Kurz, Marie; Knapp, Julia; Mendoza-Lera, Clara; Lee-Cullin, Joe; Klaar, Megan; Drummond, Jen; Jaeger, Anna; Zarnetske, Jay; Lewandowski, Joerg; Marti, Eugenia; Ward, Adam; Fleckenstein, Jan; Datry, Thibault; Larned, Scott; Krause, Stefan

2016-04-01

Nutrient concentrations in surface waters and groundwaters are increasing in many agricultural catchments worldwide as a result of anthropogenic activities. Increasing geomorphological heterogeneity in river channels may help to attenuate nutrient pollution by facilitating water exchange fluxes with the hyporheic zone; a site of intense microbial activity where biogeochemical transformation rates (e.g. denitrification) can be high. However, the controls on spatial variability in biogeochemical cycling, particularly at scales relevant for river managers, are not well understood. Here, we aimed to assess: 1) how differences in geomorphological heterogeneity control river solute transport and rates of biogeochemical cycling at sub-reach scales (102 m); and 2) the relative magnitude of these differences versus those relating to reach scale substrate variability (103 m). We used the reactive 'smart' tracer resazurin (Raz), a weakly fluorescent dye that transforms to highly fluorescent resorufin (Rru) under mildly reducing conditions, as a proxy to assess rates of biogeochemical cycling in a lowland river in southern England. Solute tracer tests were conducted in two reaches with contrasting substrates: one sand-dominated and the other gravel-dominated. Each reach was divided into sub-reaches that varied in geomorphic complexity (e.g. by the presence of pool-riffle sequences or the abundance of large woody debris). Slug injections of Raz and the conservative tracer fluorescein were conducted in each reach during baseflow conditions (Q ≈ 80 L/s) and breakthrough curves monitored using in-situ fluorometers. Preliminary results indicate overall Raz:Rru transformation rates in the gravel-dominated reach were more than 50% higher than those in the sand-dominated reach. However, high sub-reach variability in Raz:Rru transformation rates and conservative solute transport parameters suggests small-scale targeted management interventions to alter geomorphic heterogeneity may be effective in creating hotspots of river biogeochemical cycling and nutrient load attenuation.

Genetic variability in captive populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula.

PubMed

Santiago, Leandro R; Francisco, Flávio O; Jaffé, Rodolfo; Arias, Maria C

2016-08-01

Low genetic variability has normally been considered a consequence of animal husbandry and a major contributing factor to declining bee populations. Here, we performed a molecular analysis of captive and wild populations of the stingless bee Tetragonisca angustula, one of the most commonly kept species across South America. Microsatellite analyses showed similar genetic variability between wild and captive populations However, captive populations showed lower mitochondrial genetic variability. Male-mediated gene flow, transport and division of nests are suggested as the most probable explanations for the observed patterns of genetic structure. We conclude that increasing the number of colonies kept through nest divisions does not negatively affect nuclear genetic variability, which seems to be maintained by small-scale male dispersal and human-mediated nest transport. However, the transport of nests from distant localities should be practiced with caution given the high genetic differentiation observed between samples from western and eastern areas. The high genetic structure verified is the result of a long-term evolutionary process, and bees from distant localities may represent unique evolutionary lineages.

Optimization of a Small Scale Linear Reluctance Accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera, Thor; Beard, Robby

2011-11-01

Reluctance accelerators are extremely promising future methods of transportation. Several problems still plague these devices, most prominently low efficiency. Variables to overcoming efficiency problems are many and difficult to correlate how they affect our accelerator. The study examined several differing variables that present potential challenges in optimizing the efficiency of reluctance accelerators. These include coil and projectile design, power supplies, switching, and the elusive gradient inductance problem. Extensive research in these areas has been performed from computational and theoretical to experimental. Findings show that these parameters share significant similarity to transformer design elements, thus general findings show current optimized parameters the research suggests as a baseline for further research and design. Demonstration of these current findings will be offered at the time of presentation.

Mesoscale density variability in the mesosphere and thermosphere: Effects of vertical flow accelerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Revelle, D. O.

1987-01-01

A mechanistic one dimensional numerical (iteration) model was developed which can be used to simulate specific types of mesoscale atmospheric density (and pressure) variability in the mesosphere and the thermosphere, namely those due to waves and those due to vertical flow accelerations. The model was developed with the idea that it could be used as a supplement to the TGCMs (thermospheric general circulation models) since such models have a very limited ability to model phenomena on small spatial scales. The simplest case to consider was the integration upward through a time averaged, height independent, horizontally divergent flow field. Vertical winds were initialized at the lower boundary using the Ekman pumping theory over flat terrain. The results of the computations are summarized.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

The influence of topographic and dynamic cyclic variables on the distribution of small cetaceans in a shallow coastal system.

PubMed

de Boer, Marijke N; Simmonds, Mark P; Reijnders, Peter J H; Aarts, Geert

2014-01-01

The influence of topographic and temporal variables on cetacean distribution at a fine-scale is still poorly understood. To study the spatial and temporal distribution of harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena and the poorly known Risso's dolphin Grampus griseus we carried out land-based observations from Bardsey Island (Wales, UK) in summer (2001-2007). Using Kernel analysis and Generalized Additive Models it was shown that porpoises and Risso's appeared to be linked to topographic and dynamic cyclic variables with both species using different core areas (dolphins to the West and porpoises to the East off Bardsey). Depth, slope and aspect and a low variation in current speed (for Risso's) were important in explaining the patchy distributions for both species. The prime temporal conditions in these shallow coastal systems were related to the tidal cycle (Low Water Slack and the flood phase), lunar cycle (a few days following the neap tidal phase), diel cycle (afternoons) and seasonal cycle (peaking in August) but differed between species on a temporary but predictable basis. The measure of tidal stratification was shown to be important. Coastal waters generally show a stronger stratification particularly during neap tides upon which the phytoplankton biomass at the surface rises reaching its maximum about 2-3 days after neap tide. It appeared that porpoises occurred in those areas where stratification is maximised and Risso's preferred more mixed waters. This fine-scale study provided a temporal insight into spatial distribution of two species that single studies conducted over broader scales (tens or hundreds of kilometers) do not achieve. Understanding which topographic and cyclic variables drive the patchy distribution of porpoises and Risso's in a Headland/Island system may form the initial basis for identifying potentially critical habitats for these species.

Species diversity of edaphic mites (Acari: Oribatida) and effects of topography, soil properties and litter gradients on their qualitative and quantitative composition in 64 km² of forest in Amazonia.

PubMed

de Moraes, Jamile; Franklin, Elizabeth; de Morais, José Wellington; de Souza, Jorge Luiz Pereira

2011-09-01

Small-scale spatial distribution of oribatid mites has been investigated in Amazonia. In addition, medium- and large-scale studies are needed to establish the utility of these mites in detecting natural environmental variability, and to distinguish this variability from anthropogenic impacts. We are expanding the knowledge about oribatid mites in a wet upland forest reserve, and investigate whether a standardized and integrated protocol is an efficient way to assess the effects of environmental variables on their qualitative and quantitative composition on a large spatial scale inside an ecological reserve in Central Amazonia, Brazil. Samples for Berlese-Tullgren extraction were taken in 72 plots of 250 × 6 m distributed over 64 km(2). In total 3,182 adult individuals, from 82 species and 79 morphospecies were recorded, expanding the number of species known in the reserve from 149 to 254. Galumna, Rostrozetes and Scheloribates were the most speciose genera, and 57 species were rare. Rostrozetes ovulum, Pergalumna passimpuctata and Archegozetes longisetosus were the most abundant species, and the first two were the most frequent. Species number and abundance were not correlated with clay content, slope, pH and litter quantity. However, Principal Coordinate Analysis indicated that as the percentage of clay content, litter quantity and pH changed, the oribatid mite qualitative and quantitative composition also changed. The standardized protocol effectively captured the diversity, as we collected one of the largest registers of oribatid mites' species for Amazonia. Moreover, biological and ecological data were integrated to capture the effects of environmental variables accounting for their diversity and abundance.

Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C

2015-01-01

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.

Bridging the gap between small and large scale sediment budgets? - A scaling challenge in the Upper Rhone Basin, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, Anna; Blöthe, Jan; Hoffmann, Thomas; Schrott, Lothar

2016-04-01

A large number of sediment budgets have been compiled on different temporal and spatial scales in alpine regions. Detailed sediment budgets based on the quantification of a number of sediment storages (e.g. talus cones, moraine deposits) exist only for a few small scale drainage basins (up to 10² km²). In contrast, large scale sediment budgets (> 10³ km²) consider only long term sediment sinks such as valley fills and lakes. Until now, these studies often neglect small scale sediment storages in the headwaters. However, the significance of these sediment storages have been reported. A quantitative verification whether headwaters function as sediment source regions is lacking. Despite substantial transport energy in mountain environments due to steep gradients and high relief, sediment flux in large river systems is frequently disconnected from alpine headwaters. This leads to significant storage of coarse-grained sediment along the flow path from rockwall source regions to large sedimentary sinks in major alpine valleys. To improve the knowledge on sediment budgets in large scale alpine catchments and to bridge the gap between small and large scale sediment budgets, we apply a multi-method approach comprising investigations on different spatial scales in the Upper Rhone Basin (URB). The URB is the largest inneralpine basin in the European Alps with a size of > 5400 km². It is a closed system with Lake Geneva acting as an ultimate sediment sink for suspended and clastic sediment. We examine the spatial pattern and volumes of sediment storages as well as the morphometry on the local and catchment-wide scale. We mapped sediment storages and bedrock in five sub-regions of the study area (Goms, Lötschen valley, Val d'Illiez, Vallée de la Liène, Turtmann valley) in the field and from high-resolution remote sensing imagery to investigate the spatial distribution of different sediment storage types (e.g. talus deposits, debris flow cones, alluvial fans). These sub-regions cover all three litho-tectonic units of the URB (Helvetic nappes, Penninic nappes, External massifs) and different catchment sizes to capture the inherent variability. Different parameters characterizing topography, surface characteristics, and vegetation cover are analyzed for each storage type. The data is then used in geostatistical models (PCA, stepwise logistic regression) to predict the spatial distribution of sediment storage for the whole URB. We further conduct morphometric analyses of the URB to gain information on the varying degree of glacial imprint and postglacial landscape evolution and their control on the spatial distribution of sediment storage in a large scale drainage basin. Geophysical methods (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography) are applied on different sediment storage types on the local scale to estimate mean thicknesses. Additional data from published studies are used to complement our dataset. We integrate the local data in the statistical model on the spatial distribution of sediment storages for the whole URB. Hence, we can extrapolate the stored sediment volumes to the regional scale in order to bridge the gap between small and large scale studies.

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Sensitivity simulations of superparameterised convection in a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

2015-04-01

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) covering a horizontal grid spacing from a few hundred meters up to a few kilometers have been used to explicitly resolve small-scale and mesoscale processes. Special attention has been paid to realistically represent cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics involving cloud droplets, ice crystals, graupel and aerosols. The entire variety of physical processes on the small-scale interacts with the larger-scale circulation and has to be parameterised on the coarse grid of a general circulation model (GCM). Since more than a decade an approach to connect these two types of models which act on different scales has been developed to resolve cloud processes and their interactions with the large-scale flow. The concept is to use an ensemble of CRM grid cells in a 2D or 3D configuration in each grid cell of the GCM to explicitly represent small-scale processes avoiding the use of convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations which are a major source for uncertainties regarding clouds. The idea is commonly known as superparameterisation or cloud-resolving convection parameterisation. This study presents different simulations of an adapted Earth System Model (ESM) connected to a CRM which acts as a superparameterisation. Simulations have been performed with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model comparing conventional GCM runs (including convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations) with the improved superparameterised EMAC (SP-EMAC) modeling one year with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice content. The sensitivity of atmospheric temperature, precipiation patterns, cloud amount and types is observed changing the embedded CRM represenation (orientation, width, no. of CRM cells, 2D vs. 3D). Additionally, we also evaluate the radiation balance with the new model configuration, and systematically analyse the impact of tunable parameters on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the subgrid variability (individual CRM cell output) is analysed in order to illustrate the importance of a highly varying atmospheric structure inside a single GCM grid box. Finally, the convective transport of Radon is observed comparing different transport procedures and their influence on the vertical tracer distribution.

Soil Temperature Variability in Complex Terrain measured using Distributed a Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyfried, M. S.; Link, T. E.

2013-12-01

Soil temperature (Ts) exerts critical environmental controls on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Rates of carbon cycling, mineral weathering, infiltration and snow melt are all influenced by Ts. Although broadly reflective of the climate, Ts is sensitive to local variations in cover (vegetative, litter, snow), topography (slope, aspect, position), and soil properties (texture, water content), resulting in a spatially and temporally complex distribution of Ts across the landscape. Understanding and quantifying the processes controlled by Ts requires an understanding of that distribution. Relatively few spatially distributed field Ts data exist, partly because traditional Ts data are point measurements. A relatively new technology, fiber optic distributed temperature system (FO-DTS), has the potential to provide such data but has not been rigorously evaluated in the context of remote, long term field research. We installed FO-DTS in a small experimental watershed in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains of SW Idaho. The watershed is characterized by complex terrain and a seasonal snow cover. Our objectives are to: (i) evaluate the applicability of fiber optic DTS to remote field environments and (ii) to describe the spatial and temporal variability of soil temperature in complex terrain influenced by a variable snow cover. We installed fiber optic cable at a depth of 10 cm in contrasting snow accumulation and topographic environments and monitored temperature along 750 m with DTS. We found that the DTS can provide accurate Ts data (+/- .4°C) that resolves Ts changes of about 0.03°C at a spatial scale of 1 m with occasional calibration under conditions with an ambient temperature range of 50°C. We note that there are site-specific limitations related cable installation and destruction by local fauna. The FO-DTS provide unique insight into the spatial and temporal variability of Ts in a landscape. We found strong seasonal trends in Ts variability controlled by snow cover and solar radiation as modified by topography. During periods of spatially continuous snow cover Ts was practically homogeneous throughout. In the absence of snow cover, Ts is highly variable, with most of the variability attributable to different topographic units defined by slope and aspect. During transition periods when snow melts out, Ts is highly variable within the watershed and within topographic units. The importance of accounting for these relatively small scale effects is underscored by the fact that the overall range of Ts in study area 600 m long is similar to that of the much large RCEW with 900 m elevation gradient.

Measuring the impact of spatial network layout on community social cohesion: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Cooper, Crispin H V; Fone, David L; Chiaradia, Alain J F

2014-04-11

There is now a substantial body of research suggesting that social cohesion, a collective characteristic measured by the levels of trust, reciprocity and formation of strong social bonds within communities, is an important factor in determining health. Of particular interest is the extent to which factors in the built environment facilitate, or impede, the development of social bonds. Severance is a characteristic of physical environments which is hypothesized to inhibit cohesion. In the current study we test a number of characteristics of spatial networks which could be hypothesized to relate either to severance, or directly to community cohesion. Particular focus is given to our most promising variable for further analysis (Convex Hull Maximum Radius 600 m). In the current study we analysed social cohesion as measured at Enumeration District level, aggregated from a survey of 10,892 individuals aged 18 to 74 years in the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Cohort Study, 2001. In a data mining process we test 16 network variables on multiple scales. The variable showing the most promise is validated in a test on an independent data set. We then conduct a multivariate regression also including Townsend deprivation scores and urban/rural status as predictor variables for social cohesion. We find convex hull maximum radius at a 600 m scale to have a small but highly significant correlation with social cohesion on both data sets. Deprivation has a stronger effect. Splitting the analysis by tertile of deprivation, we find that the effect of severance as measured by this variable is strongest in the most deprived areas. A range of spatial scales are tested, with the strongest effects being observed at scales that match typical walking distances. We conclude that physical connectivity as measured in this paper has a significant effect on social cohesion, and that our measure is unlikely to proxy either deprivation or the urban/rural status of communities. Possible mechanisms for the effect include intrinsic navigability of areas, and the existence of a focal route on which people can meet on foot. Further investigation may lead to much stronger predictive models of social cohesion.

Measuring the impact of spatial network layout on community social cohesion: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There is now a substantial body of research suggesting that social cohesion, a collective characteristic measured by the levels of trust, reciprocity and formation of strong social bonds within communities, is an important factor in determining health. Of particular interest is the extent to which factors in the built environment facilitate, or impede, the development of social bonds. Severance is a characteristic of physical environments which is hypothesized to inhibit cohesion. In the current study we test a number of characteristics of spatial networks which could be hypothesized to relate either to severance, or directly to community cohesion. Particular focus is given to our most promising variable for further analysis (Convex Hull Maximum Radius 600 m). Methods In the current study we analysed social cohesion as measured at Enumeration District level, aggregated from a survey of 10,892 individuals aged 18 to 74 years in the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Cohort Study, 2001. In a data mining process we test 16 network variables on multiple scales. The variable showing the most promise is validated in a test on an independent data set. We then conduct a multivariate regression also including Townsend deprivation scores and urban/rural status as predictor variables for social cohesion. Results We find convex hull maximum radius at a 600 m scale to have a small but highly significant correlation with social cohesion on both data sets. Deprivation has a stronger effect. Splitting the analysis by tertile of deprivation, we find that the effect of severance as measured by this variable is strongest in the most deprived areas. A range of spatial scales are tested, with the strongest effects being observed at scales that match typical walking distances. Conclusion We conclude that physical connectivity as measured in this paper has a significant effect on social cohesion, and that our measure is unlikely to proxy either deprivation or the urban/rural status of communities. Possible mechanisms for the effect include intrinsic navigability of areas, and the existence of a focal route on which people can meet on foot. Further investigation may lead to much stronger predictive models of social cohesion. PMID:24725759

Variability of Snow Ablation: Consequences for Runoff Generation at the Process Scale and Lessons for Large Cold Regions Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomeroy, J. W.; Carey, S. K.; Granger, R. J.; Hedstrom, N. R.; Janowicz, R.; Pietroniro, A.; Quinton, W. L.

2002-12-01

The supply of water to large northern catchments such as the Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers is dominated by snowmelt runoff from first order mountain catchments. In order to understand the timing, peak and duration of the snowmelt freshet at larger scale it is important to appreciate the spatial and temporal variability of snowmelt and runoff processes at the source. For this reason a comprehensive hydrology study of a Yukon River headwaters catchment, Wolf Creek Research Basin, near Whitehorse, has focussed on the spatial variability of snow ablation and snowmelt runoff generation and the consequences for the water balance in a mountain tundra zone. In northern mountain tundra, surface energetics vary with receipt of solar radiation, shrub vegetation cover and initial snow accumulation. Therefore the timing of snowmelt is controlled by aspect, in that south facing slopes become snow-free 4-5 weeks before the north facing. Runoff generation differs widely between the slopes; there is normally no spring runoff generated from the south facing slope as all meltwater evaporates or infiltrates. On the north facing slope, snowmelt provides substantial runoff to hillside macropores which rapidly route water to the stream channel. Macropore distribution is associated with organic terrain and discontinuous permafrost, which in turn result from the summer surface energetics. Therefore the influence of small-scale snow redistribution and energetics as controlled by topography must be accounted for when calculating contributing areas to larger scale catchments, and estimating the effectiveness of snowfall in generating streamflow. This concept is quite distinct from the drainage controlled contributing area that has been found useful in temperate-zone hydrology.

Variability in vegetation effects on density and nesting success of grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, Maiken; Johnson, Douglas H.; Shaffer, Jill A.

2005-01-01

The structure of vegetation in grassland systems, unlike that in forest systems, varies dramatically among years on the same sites, and among regions with similar vegetation. The role of this variation in vegetation structure on bird density and nesting success of grassland birds is poorly understood, primarily because few studies have included sufficiently large temporal and spatial scales to capture the variation in vegetation structure, bird density, or nesting success. To date, no large-scale study on grassland birds has been conducted to investigate whether grassland bird density and nesting success respond similarly to changes in vegetation structure. However, reliable management recommendations require investigations into the distribution and nesting success of grassland birds over larger temporal and spatial scales. In addition, studies need to examine whether bird density and nesting success respond similarly to changing environmental conditions. We investigated the effect of vegetation structure on the density and nesting success of 3 grassland-nesting birds: clay-colored sparrow (Spizella pallida), Savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in 3 regions of the northern tallgrass prairie in 1998-2001. Few vegetation features influenced the densities of our study species, and each species responded differently to those vegetation variables. We could identify only 1 variable that clearly influenced nesting success of 1 species: clay-colored sparrow nesting success increased with increasing percentage of nest cover from the surrounding vegetation. Because responses of avian density and nesting success to vegetation measures varied among regions, years, and species, land managers at all times need to provide grasslands with different types of vegetation structure. Management guidelines developed from small-scale, short-term studies may lead to misrepresentations of the needs of grassland-nesting birds.

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Simulation of Boundary-Layer Cumulus and Stratocumulus Clouds using a Cloud-Resolving Model With Low- and Third-Order Turbulence Closures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

2007-01-01

The effects of subgrid-scale condensation and transport become more important as the grid spacings increase from those typically used in large-eddy simulation (LES) to those typically used in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Incorporation of these effects can be achieved by a joint probability density function approach that utilizes higher-order moments of thermodynamic and dynamic variables. This study examines how well shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are simulated by two versions of a CRM that is implemented with low-order and third-order turbulence closures (LOC and TOC) when a typical CRM horizontal resolution is used and what roles the subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes play as the horizontal grid spacing of the CRM becomes finer. Cumulus clouds were mostly produced through subgrid-scale transport processes while stratocumulus clouds were produced through both subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes in the TOC version of the CRM when a typical CRM grid spacing is used. The LOC version of the CRM relied upon resolved-scale circulations to produce both cumulus and stratocumulus clouds, due to small subgrid-scale transports. The mean profiles of thermodynamic variables, cloud fraction and liquid water content exhibit significant differences between the two versions of the CRM, with the TOC results agreeing better with the LES than the LOC results. The characteristics, temporal evolution and mean profiles of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are weakly dependent upon the horizontal grid spacing used in the TOC CRM. However, the ratio of the subgrid-scale to resolved-scale fluxes becomes smaller as the horizontal grid spacing decreases. The subcloud-layer fluxes are mostly due to the resolved scales when a grid spacing less than or equal to 1 km is used. The overall results of the TOC simulations suggest that a 1-km grid spacing is a good choice for CRM simulation of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus.

Physical and biogeochemical correlates of spatio-temporal variation in the δ13C of marine macroalgae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackey, Andrew P.; Hyndes, Glenn A.; Carvalho, Matheus C.; Eyre, Bradley D.

2015-05-01

Carbon isotope ratios (13C/12C) can be used to trace sources of production supporting food chains, as δ13C undergoes relatively small and predictable increases (∼0.5‰) through each trophic level. However, for this technique to be precise, variation in δ13C signatures of different sources of production (baseline sources) must be clearly defined and distinct from each other. Despite this, δ13C in the primary producers of marine systems are highly variable over space and time, due to the complexity of physical and biogeochemical processes that drive δ13C variation at the base of these foodwebs. We measured spatial and temporal variation in the δ13C of two species of macroalgae that are important dietary components of grazers over temperate reefs: the small kelp Ecklonia radiata, and the red alga Plocamium preissianum, and related any variation to a suite of physical and biogeochemical variables. Patterns in δ13C variation, over different spatial (10 s m to 100 km) and temporal scales (weeks to seasons), differed greatly between taxa, but these were partly explained by the δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and light. However, while the δ13C in E. radiata was not related to water temperature, a highly significant proportion of the spatio-temporal variation in δ13C of P. preissianum was explained by temperature alone. Accordingly, we applied this relationship to project (across temperate Australasia) and forecast (in time, south-western Australia) patterns in P. preissianum δ13C. The mean projected δ13C for P. preissianum in the study region varied by only ∼1‰ over a 12-month period, compared to ∼3‰ over 2000 km. This illustrates the potential scale in the shift of δ13C in baseline food sources over broad scales, and its implications to food web studies. While we show that those relationships differ across taxonomic groups, we recommend developing models to explain variability in δ13C of other baseline sources to facilitate the interpretation of variation in δ13C of consumers in food webs, particularly where data for baselines are absent over broad scales.

EDITORIAL: The FDR Prize The FDR Prize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kida, Shigeo

2009-06-01

From the 45 papers published in the year 2008 in Fluid Dynamics Research the following paper has been selected for the second FDR prize: 'Propagation of very long water waves, with vorticity, over variable depth, with applications to tsunamis' by Adrian Constantin and Robin S Johnson, published in volume 40 (March 2008) pp 175-211. This paper takes, as its main theme, the analysis of the propagation of very long gravity waves in the ocean environment, with the possibility of applying the results to tsunamis. Both variable depth and some pre-existing vorticity are allowed in the model, but under the over-arching assumption of long waves; indeed, it is argued, the waves are so long that it is impossible for classical soliton theory to be the appropriate description of a developing tsunami. This aspect is supported by some simple scaling arguments, together with some observations associated with the tsunami of Boxing Day 2004. The formulation is based on two small scales: the slow scale on which the depth varies and the small amplitude of the wave (as initially generated in deep water). The technique adopted is that of matched asymptotic expansions. The solution, constructed for deep water, is not valid in suitably reduced depth of water; the solution in this shallow region (close inshore) is then matched to the deep-water solution. A novel feature of this work is the inclusion of a general distribution of vorticity in the absence of waves—intended to model the realistic ocean—which is based on the slow evolution scale for the bottom topography. Some general properties of such background flows are proved, and two specific examples have been obtained: constant vorticity everywhere (as far as the shoreline), and regions of isolated vorticity (for appropriate bottom profiles). The way in which the wave properties are modified in the presence of vorticity is described. The significant overall proposal in this theory, specifically applicable to tsunamis, is that it is the profile of the initial disturbance (generated by the seismic activity) that is the single most important ingredient in the formation of tsunami waves (provided, of course, the familiar requirement of a long, gently shelving beach is also present). This contention is described and developed, and supported by some graphical examples of the various types of solution that can be obtained; these include contributions from variable depth and suitable background vorticity.

Hydrological drivers of wetland vegetational biodiversity patterns within Everglades National Park, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, J.; Pumo, D.; Azaele, S.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F. R.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2009-12-01

The influence of hydrological dynamics on vegetational biodiversity and structuring of wetland environments is of growing interest as wetlands are modified by human alteration and the increasing threat from climate change. Hydrology has long been considered a driving force in shaping wetland communities as the frequency of inundation along with the duration and depth of flooding are key determinants of wetland structure. We attempt to link hydrological dynamics with vegetational distribution and species richness across Everglades National Park (ENP) using two publicly available datasets. The first, the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN),is a water-surface model which determines the median daily measure of water level across a 400mX400m grid over seven years of measurement. The second is a vegetation map and classification system at the 1:15,000 scale which categorizes vegetation within the Everglades into 79 community types. From these data, we have studied the probabilistic structure of the frequency, duration, and depth of hydroperiods. Preliminary results indicate that the percentage of time a location is inundated is a principal structuring variable with individual communities responding differently. For example, sawgrass appears to be more of a generalist community as it is found across a wide range of time inundated percentages while spike rush has a more restricted distribution and favors wetter environments disproportionately more than predicted at random. Further, the diversity of vegetation communities (e.g. a measure of biodiversity) found across a hydrologic variable does not necessarily match the distribution function for that variable on the landscape. For instance, the number of communities does not differ across the percentage of time inundated. Different measures of vegetation biodiversity such as the local number of community types are also studied at different spatial scales with some characteristics, like the slope of the semi-logarithmic relation between rank and occupancy, found to be robust to scale changes. The ENP offers an expansive natural environment in which to study how vegetational dynamics and community composition are affected by hydrologic variables from the small scale (at the individual community level) to the large (biodiversity measures at differing spatial scales).

Large- and small-scale constraints on power spectra in Omega = 1 universes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelb, James M.; Gradwohl, Ben-Ami; Frieman, Joshua A.

1993-01-01

The CDM model of structure formation, normalized on large scales, leads to excessive pairwise velocity dispersions on small scales. In an attempt to circumvent this problem, we study three scenarios (all with Omega = 1) with more large-scale and less small-scale power than the standard CDM model: (1) cold dark matter with significantly reduced small-scale power (inspired by models with an admixture of cold and hot dark matter); (2) cold dark matter with a non-scale-invariant power spectrum; and (3) cold dark matter with coupling of dark matter to a long-range vector field. When normalized to COBE on large scales, such models do lead to reduced velocities on small scales and they produce fewer halos compared with CDM. However, models with sufficiently low small-scale velocities apparently fail to produce an adequate number of halos.

Numerical studies of dispersion due to tidal flow through Moskstraumen, northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynge, Birgit Kjoss; Berntsen, Jarle; Gjevik, Bjørn

2010-08-01

The effect of horizontal grid resolution on the horizontal relative dispersion of particle pairs has been investigated on a short time scale, i.e. one tidal M 2 cycle. Of particular interest is the tidal effect on dispersion and transports in coastal waters where small-scale flow features are important. A three-dimensional ocean model has been applied to simulate the tidal flow through the Moskstraumen Maelstrom outside Lofoten in northern Norway, well known for its strong current and whirlpools (Gjevik et al., Nature 388(6645):837-838, 1997; Moe et al., Cont Shelf Res 22(3):485-504, 2002). Simulations with spatial resolution down to 50 m have been carried out. Lagrangian tracers were passively advected with the flow, and Lyapunov exponents and power law exponents have been calculated to analyse the separation statistics. It is found that the relative dispersion of particles on a short time scale (12-24 h) is very sensitive to the grid size and that the spatial variability is also very large, ranging from 0 to 100 km2 over a distance of 100 m. This means that models for prediction of transport and dispersion of oil spills, fish eggs, sea lice etc. using a single diffusion coefficient will be of limited value, unless the models actually resolves the small-scale eddies of the tidal current.

Variation in soil carbon dioxide efflux at two spatial scales in a topographically complex boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, Katharine C.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Neff, Jason C.

2012-01-01

Carbon dynamics of high-latitude regions are an important and highly uncertain component of global carbon budgets, and efforts to constrain estimates of soil-atmosphere carbon exchange in these regions are contingent on accurate representations of spatial and temporal variability in carbon fluxes. This study explores spatial and temporal variability in soilatmosphere carbon dynamics at both fine and coarse spatial scales in a high-elevation, permafrost-dominated boreal black spruce forest. We evaluate the importance of landscape-level investigations of soil-atmosphere carbon dynamics by characterizing seasonal trends in soil-atmosphere carbon exchange, describing soil temperature-moisture-respiration relations, and quantifying temporal and spatial variability at two spatial scales: the plot scale (0–5 m) and the landscape scale (500–1000 m). Plot-scale spatial variability (average variation on a given measurement day) in soil CO2 efflux ranged from a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.25 to 0.69, and plot-scale temporal variability (average variation of plots across measurement days) in efflux ranged from a CV of 0.19 to 0.36. Landscape-scale spatial and temporal variability in efflux was represented by a CV of 0.40 and 0.31, respectively, indicating that plot-scale spatial variability in soil respiration is as great as landscape-scale spatial variability at this site. While soil respiration was related to soil temperature at both the plot- and landscape scale, landscape-level descriptions of soil moisture were necessary to define soil respiration-moisture relations. Soil moisture variability was also integral to explaining temporal variability in soil respiration. Our results have important implications for research efforts in high-latitude regions where remote study sites make landscape-scale field campaigns challenging.

Identifying Preserved Storm Events on Beaches from Trenches and Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; Gallagher, E. L.; McNinch, J.; Reniers, A.; Koktas, M.

2014-12-01

Recent research suggests that even small scale variations in grain size in the shallow stratigraphy of sandy beaches can significantly influence large-scale morphology change. However, few quantitative studies of variations in shallow stratigraphic layers, as differentiated by variations in mean grain size, have been conducted, in no small part due to the difficulty of collecting undisturbed sediment cores in the energetic lower beach and swash zone. Due to this lack of quantitative stratigraphic grain size data, most coastal morphology models assume that uniform grain sizes dominate sandy beaches, allowing for little to no temporal or spatial variations in grain size heterogeneity. In a first-order attempt to quantify small-scale, temporal and spatial variations in beach stratigraphy, thirty-five vibracores were collected at the USACE Field Research Facility (FRF), Duck, NC, in March-April of 2014 using the FRF's Coastal Research and Amphibious Buggy (CRAB). Vibracores were collected at set locations along a cross-shore profile from the toe of the dune to a water depth of ~1m in the surf zone. Vibracores were repeatedly collected from the same locations throughout a tidal cycle, as well as pre- and post a nor'easter event. In addition, two ~1.5m deep trenches were dug in the cross-shore and along-shore directions (each ~14m in length) after coring was completed to allow better interpretation of the stratigraphic sequences observed in the vibracores. The elevations of coherent stratigraphic layers, as revealed in vibracore-based fence diagrams and trench data, are used to relate specific observed stratigraphic sequences to individual storm events observed at the FRF. These data provide a first-order, quantitative examination of the small-scale temporal and spatial variability of shallow grain size along an open, sandy coastline. The data will be used to refine morphological model predictions to include variations in grain size and associated shallow stratigraphy.

Bedform Dimensions and Suspended Sediment Observations in a Mixed Sand-Mud Intertidal Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lichtman, I. D.; Amoudry, L.; Peter, T.; Jaco, B.

2016-02-01

Small-scale bedforms, such as ripples, can profoundly modify near-bed hydrodynamics, near-bed sediment transport and resuspension, and benthic-pelagic fluxes. Knowledge of their dimensions is important for a number of applications. Fundamentally different processes can occur depending on the dimensions of ripples: for low and long ripples, the bed remains dynamically flat and diffusive processes dominate sediment entrainment; for steep ripples, flow separation occurs above the ripples creating vortices, which are far more efficient at entraining sediment into the water column. Recent laboratory experiments for mixtures of sand and mud have shown that bedform dimensions decrease with increasing sediment mud content. However, these same experiments also showed that mud is selectively taken into suspension when bedforms are created and migrate on the bed, leaving sandy bedforms. This entrainment process, selectively suspending fine sediment, is referred to as winnowing. To improve our understanding of bedform and entrainment dynamics of mixed sediments, in situ observations were made on intertidal flats in the Dee Estuary, United Kingdom. A suite of instruments were deployed collecting co-located measurements of the near-bed hydrodynamics, waves, small-scale bed morphology and suspended sediment. Three sites were occupied consecutively, over a Spring-Neap cycle, collecting data for different bed compositions, tide levels and wind conditions. Bed samples were taken when the flats became exposed at low water and a sediment trap collected suspended load when inundated. This study will combine these measurements to investigate the interactions between small-scale bed morphology, near-bed hydrodynamics and sediment entrainment. We will examine bedform development in the complex hydrodynamic and wave climate of tidal flats, in relation to standard ripple predictors. We will also relate the variability in small-scale bedforms to variation in hydrodynamic and wave conditions, and to suspension and entrainment processes for mixed sediments.

Simultaneous Ultraviolet Line and Continuum Variability Studies in Seyfert 1 Galaxies and Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honnappa, Vijayakumar; Prabhakar, Vedavvathi

Simultaneous Ultraviolet Line and Continuum Variability Studies in Seyfert 1 Galaxies and Quasars Vijayakumar H. Doddamani*and P. Vedavathi Department of Physics, Bangalore University, Bangalore-560056, *Corresponding author:drvkdmani@gmail.com, Abstract The line and continuum flux variability is a hallmark phenomenon of Seyfert 1 galaxies and quasars. Large amplitude luminosity variability is observed in AGNs from x-rays through radio waves over a wide-ranging timescales from minutes to years. The combinations of high luminosity and short variability time scales suggests, that the power of AGN is produced by a phenomena more efficient in terms of energy release per unit mass than ordinary stellar processes. The basic structure of AGNs thus developed based on the variability studies consists of a central super massive black hole surrounded by an accretion disk or more generally optically thick plasma radiating brightly at UV and soft X-ray wavelengths. The variability studies have been important tools of understanding the physics of the central regions of AGNs, which in general cannot be resolved with the existing or planned ground and space telescopes. Therefore, we have undertaken a study of the simultaneous ultraviolet line and continuum flux variability studies in MRK501, ESOB113-IG45 (also called as Fairall 9), MRK1506, MRK1095 V*GQCOM, PG1211+143, MRK205, PG1226+023 (also known as 3C273), PG1351+640, MRK 1383, MRK876 and QSO2251-178 as these objects have been repeatedly observed by IUE satellite over several years.. It is observed that Fairall 9, MRK 1095 and 3C273 exhibit the large amplitude variability (» 30 times) over the observed timescale, which spans several years. The remaining nine objects exhibit small amplitude (» 5 times) variability over the long time scale of observations. The highest amplitude variability is observed in Lya with a least in the MgII line. The amplitude of variability decreases in the order of Lya, CIV and Mg II, lines. These results suggest that the BLR is spatially stratified into different regions from the central compact nuclear engine. Keywords: Active galaxies, Seyfert galaxies, Quasars, Line and continuum, Variability, Supermassive black hole

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes like, Beach width, distance from the city) of each sector, tourism attributes (Coastal business; Number of hotels; Number of hotel rooms; Room price; Beach attendance). All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale four beach tourist destinations in the Island of Crete, with different vulnerabilities. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of "Post-Doctoral Excellence Scholarship. State Scholarships Foundation, Greece IKY-Siemens Action"

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts. PMID:24927165

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

PubMed

Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

2014-01-01

An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the underlying population.

Land Use Induced Hydroclimatic Variability Over Large Deforested Areas in Southern Amazon Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

Contemporary Amazonian deforestation, which occurs at scales of a few hundreds of kilometers, has been found to induce systematic changes in the regional dry season precipitation. The replacement of rough forest with smooth pasture induces a low level atmospheric convergence and uplift in the downwind and divergence and subsidence in the upwind deforested areas. The resulting precipitation change is about ±30% of the deforested area mean in the two regions respectively. Compared with the increase in non-precipitating cloudiness triggered by small scale clearings prevalent in the early phases of deforestation, this `dynamical mesoscale circulation' can have regional ecological impacts by altering precipitation seasonality and in turn ecosystem dynamics. However, the seasonality and variability of this phenomenon hasn't been studied. Using observations and numerical simulations this study investigates the relationships between the dynamical mechanism and the local- and continental-scale atmospheric conditions to understand the physical controls on this phenomenon on the inter-annual, inter-seasonal and daily time scales. We find that the strength of the dynamical mechanism is controlled mostly by regional scale thermal and dynamical conditions of the boundary layer and not the continental and global scale atmospheric state. The lifting condensation level (thermodynamic control) and wind speed (dynamic control) within the boundary layer have the largest and positive correlations with the dipole strength, which is true although not always significant across time scales. Due to this dependence it is found to be strongest during parts of the year when the atmosphere is relatively stable. Hence, overall this phenomenon is found to be the prevalent convective triggering mechanism during the dry and parts of transition seasons (especially spring), significantly affecting the hydroclimate during this period.

Controls for multi-scale temporal variation in methane flux of a subtropical tidal salt marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H.

2016-12-01

Coastal wetlands provide critical carbon sequestration benefits, yet the production of methane (CH4) from these ecosystems can vary by an order of magnitude based on environmental and biological factors. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements for methane flux (FCH4) were performed in a subtropical tidal salt marsh of eastern China over 20 months. Spectral analysis techniques including the continuous wavelet transform, the wavelet coherence, the partial wavelet coherence and the multiple wavelet coherence were employed to analyze the periodicities and the main regulating factors of FCH4 in the tidal salt marsh. The annual budget of methane was 17.8 g C-CH4 m-2 yr-1, which was relatively high compared to those of most reported from inland wetland sites. In non-growing season, release of ebullition was the dominant driving mechanism for variability of FCH4 from hourly to monthly scales. There was no single dominant factor at short-term scale (half-day to 1-day) in growing season. It is worthwhile to note that tide was one of the most important factors regulating FCH4 at short time scale (half-day to 1-day). In comparison, the contribution of temperature to FCH4 at a short time scale (half-day to 1-day) was small due to its narrow range. In addition, plant-modulated transport and gross primary production also contributed to FCH4 at multiple temporal scales in this densely vegetated marsh, especially at weekly to monthly scales. Due to the complex interactive influences of tidal dynamics, temperature fluctuation, plant productivity, plant-mediated transport and release of ebullition on FCH4 exhibited no clear pattern of diurnal variation, but instead was highly variable.

Novel method to construct large-scale design space in lubrication process utilizing Bayesian estimation based on a small-scale design-of-experiment and small sets of large-scale manufacturing data.

PubMed

Maeda, Jin; Suzuki, Tatsuya; Takayama, Kozo

2012-12-01

A large-scale design space was constructed using a Bayesian estimation method with a small-scale design of experiments (DoE) and small sets of large-scale manufacturing data without enforcing a large-scale DoE. The small-scale DoE was conducted using various Froude numbers (X(1)) and blending times (X(2)) in the lubricant blending process for theophylline tablets. The response surfaces, design space, and their reliability of the compression rate of the powder mixture (Y(1)), tablet hardness (Y(2)), and dissolution rate (Y(3)) on a small scale were calculated using multivariate spline interpolation, a bootstrap resampling technique, and self-organizing map clustering. The constant Froude number was applied as a scale-up rule. Three experiments under an optimal condition and two experiments under other conditions were performed on a large scale. The response surfaces on the small scale were corrected to those on a large scale by Bayesian estimation using the large-scale results. Large-scale experiments under three additional sets of conditions showed that the corrected design space was more reliable than that on the small scale, even if there was some discrepancy in the pharmaceutical quality between the manufacturing scales. This approach is useful for setting up a design space in pharmaceutical development when a DoE cannot be performed at a commercial large manufacturing scale.