Relationships between solar activity and climate change. [sunspot cycle effects on lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, W. O.

1974-01-01

Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E.

1983-01-01

There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2012-10-01

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

2018-01-01

The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, and consequently leading to the development of positive PNA-like pattern during the WE phase. Thus, it seems that the solar cycle can significantly modulate the WE effect on the PNA under the HS background.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

PubMed

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks.

PubMed

Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

2011-02-01

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects, they could accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO(2) increase and subsequent climate change beyond current predictions. The effects of predicted changes in climate and solar UV radiation on carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to vary significantly between regions. The balance of positive and negative effects on terrestrial carbon cycling remains uncertain, but the interactions between UV radiation and climate change are likely to contribute to decreasing sink strength in many oceanic regions. Interactions between climate and solar UV radiation will affect cycling of elements other than carbon, and so will influence the concentration of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases. For example, increases in oxygen-deficient regions of the ocean caused by climate change are projected to enhance the emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse and ozone-depleting gas. Future changes in UV-induced transformations of aquatic and terrestrial contaminants could have both beneficial and adverse effects. Taken in total, it is clear that the future changes in UV radiation coupled with human-caused global change will have large impacts on biogeochemical cycles at local, regional and global scales.

ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.

2013-06-20

We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less

Thermal cycle testing of Space Station Freedom solar array blanket coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheiman, David A.; Schieman, David A.

1991-01-01

Lewis Research Center is presently conducting thermal cycle testing of solar array blanket coupons that represent the baseline design for Space Station Freedom. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environment Protection (PAEP) Program, NAS 3-25079, at Lockheed Missile and Space Company. The objective of the testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. Secondary objectives include the observation and identification of potential failure modes and effects that may occur within the solar array blanket coupons as a result of thermal cycling. The objectives, test articles, test chamber, performance evaluation, test requirements, and test results are presented for the successful completion of 60,000 thermal cycles.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curdt, W.; Fleck, B.

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Mcpeters, Richard D.; Meade, Paul E.

1990-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, manifesting in the extratropical northern atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitnov, S. A.

2009-01-01

Using the longest and most reliable ozonesonde data sets grouped for four regions (Japan, Europe, as well as temperate and polar latitudes of Canada) the comparative analysis of regional responses of ozone, temperature, horizontal wind, tropopause and surface pressure on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO effects), manifesting in opposite phases of the 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) was carried out. The impact of solar cycle is found to be the strongest at the Canadian Arctic, near one of two climatological centres of polar vortex, where in solar maximum conditions the QBO signals in ozone and temperature have much larger amplitudes, embrace greater range of heights, and are maximized much higher than those in solar minimum conditions. The strengthening of the temperature QBO effect during solar maxima can explain why correlation between the 11-yr SC and polar winter stratospheric temperature is reversed in the opposite QBO phases. At the border of polar vortex the 11-yr SC also modulates the QBO effect in zonal wind, strengthening the quasi-biennial modulation of polar vortex during solar maxima that is associated with strong negative correlation between stratospheric QBO signals in zonal wind and temperature. Above Japan the QBO effects of ozone, temperature, and zonal wind, manifesting in solar maxima reveal the downward phase dynamics, reminding similar feature of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere. Above Europe, the QBO effects in solar maxima reveal more similarity with those above Japan, while in solar minima with the effects obtained at the Canadian middle-latitude stations. It is revealed that the 11-yr SC influences regional QBO effects in tropopause height, tropopause temperature and surface pressure. The influence most distinctly manifest itself in tropopause characteristics above Japan. The results of the accompanying analysis of the QBO reference time series testify that in the period of 1965-2006 above 50-hPa level the duration of the QBO cycle in solar maxima is 1-3 months longer than in solar minima. The differences are more distinct at higher levels, but they are diminished with lengthening of the period.

Effects of plasma drag on low Earth orbiting satellites due to solar forcing induced perturbations and heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nwankwo, Victor U. J.; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Weigel, Robert S.

2015-07-01

The upper atmosphere changes significantly in temperature, density and composition as a result of solar cycle variations, which causes severe storms and flares, and increases in the amount of absorbed solar radiation from solar energetic events. Satellite orbits are consequently affected by this process, especially those in low Earth orbit (LEO). In this paper, we present a model of atmospheric drag effects on the trajectory of two hypothetical LEO satellites of different ballistic coefficients, initially injected at h = 450 km. We investigate long-term trends of atmospheric drag on LEO satellites due to solar forcing induced atmospheric perturbations and heating at different phases of the solar cycle, and during short intervals of strong geomagnetic disturbances or magnetic storms. We show dependence of orbital decay on the severity of both solar cycle and phase and the extent of geomagnetic perturbations. The result of the model compares well with observed decay profile of some existing LEO satellites and provide a justification of the theoretical considerations used here.

Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousef, Shahinaz M.

2005-03-01

Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly.

Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.; ...

2014-11-07

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi

2015-02-01

The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less

The solar ionisation rate deduced from Ulysses measurements and its implications to interplanetary Lyman alpha-intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summanen, T.; Kyroelae, E.

1995-01-01

We have developed a computer code which can be used to study 3-dimensional and time-dependent effects of the solar cycle on the interplanetary (IP) hydrogen distribution. The code is based on the inverted Monte Carlo simulation. In this work we have modelled the temporal behaviour of the solar ionisation rate. We have assumed that during the most of the time of the solar cycle there is an anisotopic latitudinal structure but right at the solar maximum the anisotropy disappears. The effects of this behaviour will be discussed both in regard to the IP hydrogen distribution and IP Lyman a a-intensity.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, Ching-Cheh

2007-01-01

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Solar activities and Climate change hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hady, A. A., II

2014-12-01

Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.

Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuss, H. E.

1980-01-01

For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L.

1984-01-01

Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Solar and climate signal records in tree ring width from Chile (AD 1587 1994)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodolfo Rigozo, Nivaor; Roger Nordemann, Daniel Jean; Evangelista da Silva, Heitor; Pereira de Souza Echer, Mariza; Echer, Ezequiel

2007-01-01

Tree growth rings represent an important natural record of past climate variations and solar activity effects registered on them. We performed in this study a wavelet analysis of tree ring samples of Pilgerodendron cupressoides species, from Glaciar Pio XI (Lat: 49°12'S; 74°55'W; Alt: 25 m), Chile. We obtained an average chronology of about 400 years from these trees. The 11-yr solar cycle was present during the whole period in tree ring data, being more intense during Maunder minimum (1645-1715). The short-term periods, around 2-7 yr, that were found are more likely associated with ENSO effects. Further, we found significant periods around 52 and 80-100 yr. These periodicities are coincident with the fourth harmonic (52 yr) of the Suess cycle (208 yr) and Gleissberg (˜80-100 yr) solar cycles. Therefore, the present analysis shows evidence of solar activity effect/modulation on climatic conditions that affect tree ring growth. Although we cannot say with the present analysis if this effect is on local, regional or global climate, these results add evidence to an important role of solar activity over terrestrial climate over the past ˜400 yr.

Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi

2000-11-01

We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleck, Bernhard; Curdt, Werner; Olive, Jean-Philippe; van Overbeek, Ton

2015-04-01

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to 75% of its original level over 1 ½ solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that the total number of SSR SEUs with solar origin over the 17 ½ years from January 1996 through June 2013 is of the same order as those generated by cosmic ray hits. 49% of the total solar array degradation during that time can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent events (SEPs) is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Energy comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosel, Urška; Avsec, Jurij

2017-07-01

The combined use of renewable energy and alternative energy systems and better efficiency of energy devices is a promising approach to reduce effects due to global warming in the world. On the basis of first and second law of thermodynamics we could optimize the processes in the energy sector. The presented paper shows the comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant in terms of energy, exergy and life cycle analysis. Solar thermal power plant produces electricity with basic Rankine cycle, using solar tower and solar mirrors to produce high fluid temperature. Heat from the solar system is transferred by using a heat exchanger to Rankine cycle. Both power plants produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The paper shows the global efficiency of the system, regarding production of the energy system.

Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes

2018-01-01

In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition.

Influence of interplanetary solar wind sector polarity on the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

liu, jing

2014-05-01

Knowledge of solar sector polarity effects on the ionosphere may provide some clues in understanding of the ionospheric day-to-day variability. A solar-terrestrial connection ranging from solar sector boundary (SB) crossings, geomagnetic disturbance and ionospheric perturbations has been demonstrated. The increases in interplanetary solar wind speed within three days are seen after SB crossings, while the decreases in solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetic field intensity immediately after SB crossings are confirmed by the superposed epoch analysis results. Furthermore, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turns from northward to southward in March equinox and June solstice as the Earth passes from a solar sector of outward to inward directed magnetic fields, whereas the reverse situation occurs for the transition from toward to away sectors. The F2 region critical frequency (foF2) covering about four solar cycles and total electron content (TEC) during 1998-2011 are utilized to extract the related information, revealing that they are not modified significantly and vary within the range of 15% on average. The responses of the ionospheric TEC to SB crossings exhibit complex temporal and spatial variations and have strong dependencies on season, latitude, and solar cycle. This effect is more appreciable in equinoctial months than in solstitial months, which is mainly caused by larger southward Bz components in equinox. In September equinox, latitudinal profile of relative variations of foF2 at noon is featured by depressions at high latitudes and enhancements in low-equatorial latitudes during IMF away sectors. The negative phase of foF2 is delayed at solar minimum relative to it during other parts of solar cycle, which might be associated with the difference in longevity of major interplanetary solar wind drivers perturbing the Earth's environment in different phases of solar cycle.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less

A devil in the detail: parameter cross-talk from the solar cycle and estimation of solar p-mode frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin, W. J.; Jiménez-Reyes, S. J.; Eff-Darwich, A.; Elsworth, Y.; New, R.

2008-04-01

Frequencies, powers and damping rates of the solar p modes are all observed to vary over the 11-yr solar activity cycle. Here, we show that simultaneous variations in these parameters give rise to a subtle cross-talk effect, which we call the `devil in the detail', that biases p-mode frequencies estimated from analysis of long power frequency spectra. We also show that the resonant peaks observed in the power frequency spectra show small distortions due to the effect. Most of our paper is devoted to a study of the effect for Sun-as-a-star observations of the low-l p modes. We show that for these data the significance of the effect is marginal. We also touch briefly on the likely l dependence of the effect, and discuss the implications of these results for solar structure inversions.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles: Design Considerations for Concentrating Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neises, Ty; Turchi, Craig

2014-09-01

A comparison of three supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles: the simple cycle, recompression cycle and partial-cooling cycle indicates the partial-cooling cycle is favored for use in concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. Although it displays slightly lower cycle efficiency versus the recompression cycle, the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to have lower total recuperator size, as well as a lower maximum s-CO2 temperature in the high-temperature recuperator. Both of these effects reduce recuperator cost. Furthermore, the partial-cooling cycle provides a larger temperature differential across the turbine, which translates into a smaller, more cost-effective thermal energy storage system. The temperature drop across the turbinemore » (and by extension, across a thermal storage system) for the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to be 23% to 35% larger compared to the recompression cycle of equal recuperator conductance between 5 and 15 MW/K. This reduces the size and cost of the thermal storage system. Simulations by NREL and Abengoa Solar indicate the partial-cooling cycle results in a lower LCOE compared with the recompression cycle, despite the former's slightly lower cycle efficiency. Advantages of the recompression cycle include higher thermal efficiency and potential for a smaller precooler. The overall impact favors the use of a partial-cooling cycle for CSP compared to the more commonly analyzed recompression cycle.« less

The 11 Year Solar Cycle Response of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Observed by GPS Radio Occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, King-Fai; Lin, Li-Ching; Bui, Xuan-Hien; Liang, Mao-Chang

2018-01-01

We have retrieved the latitudinal and vertical structures of the 11 year solar cycle modulation on ionospheric electron density using 14 years of satellite-based radio occultation measurements utilizing the Global Positioning System. The densities at the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the subtropics near 300 km in 2003 and 2014 (high solar activity with solar 10.7 cm flux, F10.7 ≈ 140 solar flux unit (sfu)) were 3 times higher than that in 2009 (low solar activity F10.7 ≈ 70 sfu). The higher density is attributed to the elevated solar extreme ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity during high solar activity periods. The location of the EIA crests moved 50 km upward and 10° poleward, because of the enhanced E × B force. The EIA in the northern hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the southern hemisphere. This interhemispheric asymmetry is consistent with the effect of enhanced transequatorial neutral wind. The above observations were reproduced qualitatively by the two benchmark runs of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. In addition, we have studied the impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the 27 day solar cycle response of the ionospheric electron density. Beside the expected modulation on the amplitude of the 27 day solar variation due to the 11 year solar cycle, we find that the altitude of the maximal 27 day solar response is unexpectedly 50 km higher than that of the 11 year solar response. This is the first time that a vertical dependence of the solar responses on different time scales is reported.

Reduction of Life Cycle CO2 Emission in Public Welfare Facilities Equipped with PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki

The reduction effect of life cycle CO2 emission is examined in case of introducing a PV/solar heat/cogeneration system into public welfare facilities(hotel and hospital). Life cycle CO2 emission is calculated as the sum of that when operating and that when manufacturing equipments. The system is operated with the dynamic programming method, into which hourly data of electric and heat loads, solar insolation, and atmospheric temperature during a year are input. The proposed system is compared with a conventional system and a cogeneration system. The life cycle CO2 emission of the PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is lower than that of the conventional system by 20% in hotel and by 14% in hospital.

Distinct Pattern of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays above a High Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Clem, John; Evenson, Paul; Pyle, Roger; Mitthumsiri, Warit; Ruffolo, David; Sáiz, Alejandro; Nutaro, Tanin

2018-05-01

Solar modulation refers to Galactic cosmic-ray variations with the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle and ∼22 yr solar magnetic cycle and is relevant to the space radiation environment and effects on Earth’s atmosphere. Its complicated dependence on solar and heliospheric conditions is only roughly understood and has been empirically modeled in terms of a single modulation parameter. Most analyses of solar modulation use neutron monitor (NM) data from locations with relatively low geomagnetic cutoff rigidity, i.e., the threshold for cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field. The Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, has the world’s highest cutoff rigidity (≈17 GV) where observations span a complete solar modulation cycle (since late 2007). The pattern of solar modulation at Doi Inthanon during 2011–2014 was qualitatively very different from that at a low geomagnetic cutoff and is not well described by the same modulation parameter. At other times, NM count rates from Doi Inthanon and McMurdo, Antarctica (cutoff ∼1 GV), were linearly correlated and confirm the observation from latitude surveys in the previous solar cycle that the slope of the correlation changes with solar magnetic polarity. Low solar magnetic tilt angles (<40° at negative polarity) were well correlated with variations at both NM stations, as predicted by drift models. At a higher tilt angle, the Doi Inthanon count rate is well correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field, which is consistent with an increase in diffusion at high rigidity short-circuiting the effects of drifts and the heliospheric current sheet.

A Candidate Army Energy and Water Management Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-01

70.2 0.02 3.1 9.1 1.7 0.7 Solar DHW 1.1 0.0 84.0 210.0 0.06 6.1 13.9 1.2 0.5 Solar Wall 0.5 0.0 13.9 34.8 0.04 2.3 6.1 7.0 2.8 Wind Turbines 0.5 15.7...unit, even though each installation might not neces- sarily make the same progress. For example, it might be cost effective to construct large solar ...selecting the most life-cycle effective course of action. Life cycle cost is to be minimized by using energy effi- ciency, water conservation, or solar

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

1994-01-01

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

The solar energetic particle propagation of solar flare events on 24th solar cycle.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paluk, P.; Khumlumlert, T.; Kanlayaprasit, N.; Aiemsa-ad, N.

2017-09-01

Now the Sun is in the 24th solar cycle. The peak of solar cycle correspond to the number of the Sun activities, which one of them is solar flare. The solar flare is the violent explosion at the solar atmosphere and releases the high energy ion from the Sun to the interplanetary medium. Solar energetic particles or solar cosmic ray have important effect on the Earth, such as disrupt radio communication. We analyze the particle transport of the solar flare events on August 9, 2011, January 27, 2012, and November 3, 2013 in 24th solar cycle. The particle data for each solar flare was obtained from SIS instrument on ACE spacecraft. We simulate the particle transport with the equation of Ruffolo 1995, 1998. We solve the transport equation with the numerical technique of finite different. We find the injection duration from the Sun to the Earth by the compared fitting method of piecewise linear function between the simulation results and particle data from spacecraft. The position of these solar flare events are on the west side of the Sun, which are N18W68, N33W85, and S12W16. We found that mean free path is roughly constant for a single event. This implies that the interplanetary scattering is approximately energy independent, but the level of scattering varies with time. The injection duration decreases with increasing energy. We found the resultant variation of the highest energy and lowest energy, because the effect of space environments and the number of the detected data was small. The high mean free path of the high energy particles showed the transport capability of particles along to the variable magnetic field line. The violent explosion of these solar flares didn’t affect on the Earth magnetic field with Kp-index less than 3.

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth

2001-01-01

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, David W.; Solomon, Stanley C.

1992-01-01

This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

THE EFFECT OF A DYNAMIC INNER HELIOSHEATH THICKNESS ON COSMIC-RAY MODULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manuel, R.; Ferreira, S. E. S.; Potgieter, M. S., E-mail: rexmanuel@live.com

2015-02-01

The time-dependent modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere is studied over different polarity cycles by computing 2.5 GV proton intensities using a two-dimensional, time-dependent modulation model. By incorporating recent theoretical advances in the relevant transport parameters in the model, we showed in previous work that this approach gave realistic computed intensities over a solar cycle. New in this work is that a time dependence of the solar wind termination shock (TS) position is implemented in our model to study the effect of a dynamic inner heliosheath thickness (the region between the TS and heliopause) on the solar modulationmore » of galactic cosmic rays. The study reveals that changes in the inner heliosheath thickness, arising from a time-dependent shock position, does affect cosmic-ray intensities everywhere in the heliosphere over a solar cycle, with the smallest effect in the innermost heliosphere. A time-dependent TS position causes a phase difference between the solar activity periods and the corresponding intensity periods. The maximum intensities in response to a solar minimum activity period are found to be dependent on the time-dependent TS profile. It is found that changing the width of the inner heliosheath with time over a solar cycle can shift the time of when the maximum or minimum cosmic-ray intensities occur at various distances throughout the heliosphere, but more significantly in the outer heliosphere. The time-dependent extent of the inner heliosheath, as affected by solar activity conditions, is thus an additional time-dependent factor to be considered in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.« less

Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S.

2017-08-01

The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect.

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Effects of the scatter in sunspot group tilt angles on the large-scale magnetic field at the solar surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: jiejiang@nao.cas.cn

The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in surface flux transport (SFT) simulations. The evolution of the polar field is a consequence of Hale's polarity rules, together with the tilt angle distribution which has a systematic component (Joy's law) and a random component (tilt-angle scatter). We determine the scatter using the observed tilt angle data and study the effects of this scatter on the evolution of the solar surface field using SFT simulations with flux input basedmore » upon the recorded sunspot groups. The tilt angle scatter is described in our simulations by a random component according to the observed distributions for different ranges of sunspot group size (total umbral area). By performing simulations with a number of different realizations of the scatter we study the effect of the tilt angle scatter on the global magnetic field, especially on the evolution of the axial dipole moment. The average axial dipole moment at the end of cycle 17 (a medium-amplitude cycle) from our simulations was 2.73 G. The tilt angle scatter leads to an uncertainty of 0.78 G (standard deviation). We also considered cycle 14 (a weak cycle) and cycle 19 (a strong cycle) and show that the standard deviation of the axial dipole moment is similar for all three cycles. The uncertainty mainly results from the big sunspot groups which emerge near the equator. In the framework of Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the tilt angle scatter therefore constitutes a significant random factor in the cycle-to-cycle amplitude variability, which strongly limits the predictability of solar activity.« less

Solar Radio Burst Statistics and Implications for Space Weather Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giersch, O. D.; Kennewell, J.; Lynch, M.

2017-11-01

Solar radio bursts have the potential to affect space and terrestrial navigation, communication, and other technical systems that are sometimes overlooked. However, over the last decade a series of extreme L band solar radio bursts in December 2006 have renewed interest in these effects. In this paper we point out significant deficiencies in the solar radio data archives of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that are used by most researchers in analyzing and producing statistics on solar radio burst phenomena. In particular, we examine the records submitted by the United States Air Force (USAF) Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) and its predecessors from the period 1966 to 2010. Besides identifying substantial missing burst records we show that different observatories can have statistically different burst distributions, particularly at 245 MHz. We also point out that different solar cycles may show statistically different distributions and that it is a mistake to assume that the Sun shows similar behavior in different sunspot cycles. Large solar radio bursts are not confined to the period around sunspot maximum, and prediction of such events that utilize historical data will invariably be an underestimate due to archive data deficiencies. It is important that researchers and forecasters use historical occurrence frequency with caution in attempting to predict future cycles.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu

2017-08-01

The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares.

Waldmeier's Rules in the Solar and Stellar Dynamos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipin, Valery; Kosovichev, Alexander

2015-08-01

The Waldmeier's rules [1] establish important empirical relations between the general parameters of magnetic cycles (such as the amplitude, period, growth rate and time profile) on the Sun and solar-type stars [2]. Variations of the magnetic cycle parameters depend on properties of the global dynamo processes operating in the stellar convection zones. We employ nonlinear mean-field axisymmetric dynamo models [3] and calculate of the magnetic cycle parameters, such as the dynamo cycle period, total magnetic and Poynting fluxes for the Sun and solar-type stars with rotational periods from 15 to 30 days. We consider two types of the dynamo models: 1) distributed (D-type) models employing the standard α - effect distributed in the whole convection zone, and 2) Babcock-Leighton (BL-type) models with a non-local α - effect. The dynamo models take into account the principal mechanisms of the nonlinear dynamo generation and saturation, including the magnetic helicity conservation, magnetic buoyancy effects, and the feedback on the angular momentum balance inside the convection zones. Both types of models show that the dynamo generated magnetic flux increases with the increase of the rotation rate. This corresponds to stronger brightness variations. The distributed dynamo model reproduces the observed dependence of the cycle period on the rotation rate for the Sun analogs better than the BL-type model. For the solar-type stars rotating more rapidly than the Sun we find dynamo regimes with multiple periods. Such stars with multiple cycles form a separate branch in the variability-rotation diagram.1. Waldmeier, M., Prognose für das nächste Sonnenfleckenmaximum, 1936, Astron. Nachrichten, 259,262. Soon,W.H., Baliunas,S.L., Zhang,Q.,An interpretation of cycle periods of stellar chromospheric activity, 1993, ApJ, 414,333. Pipin,V.V., Dependence of magnetic cycle parameters on period of rotation in nonlinear solar-type dynamos, 2015, astro-ph: 14125284

The Sun and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Potential Evaluation of Solar Heat Assisted Desiccant Hybrid Air Conditioning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Thien Nha; Hamamoto, Yoshinori; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

The solar thermal driven desiccant dehumidification-absorption cooling hybrid system has superior advantage in hot-humid climate regions. The reasonable air processing of desiccant hybrid air conditioning system and the utility of clean and free energy make the system environment friendly and energy efficient. The study investigates the performance of the desiccant dehumidification air conditioning systems with solar thermal assistant. The investigation is performed for three cases which are combinations of solar thermal and absorption cooling systems with different heat supply temperature levels. Two solar thermal systems are used in the study: the flat plate collector (FPC) and the vacuum tube with compound parabolic concentrator (CPC). The single-effect and high energy efficient double-, triple-effect LiBr-water absorption cooling cycles are considered for cooling systems. COP of desiccant hybrid air conditioning systems are determined. The evaluation of these systems is subsequently performed. The single effect absorption cooling cycle combined with the flat plate collector solar system is found to be the most energy efficient air conditioning system.

Coronal Holes and Magnetic Flux Ropes Interweaving Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony; Leamon, Robert; Qiu, Jiong

2016-10-01

Coronal holes, dark patches observed in solar observations in extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelengths, provide an excellent proxy for regions of open magnetic field rooted near the photosphere. Through a multi-instrument approach, including SDO data, we are able to stitch together high resolution maps of coronal hole boundaries spanning the past two solar activity cycles. These observational results are used in conjunction with models of open magnetic field to probe physical solar parameters. Magnetic flux ropes are commonly defined as bundles of solar magnetic field lines, twisting around a common axis. Photospheric surface flows and magnetic reconnection work in conjunction to form these ropes, storing magnetic stresses until eruption. With an automated methodology to identify flux ropes within observationally driven magnetofrictional simulations, we can study their properties in detail. Of particular interest is a solar-cycle length statistical description of eruption rates, spatial distribution, magnetic orientation, flux, and helicity. Coronal hole observations can provide useful data about the distribution of the fast solar wind, with magnetic flux ropes yielding clues as to ejected magnetic field and the resulting space weather geo-effectiveness. With both of these cycle-spanning datasets, we can begin to form a more detailed picture of the evolution and consequences of both sets of solar magnetic features.

Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

2017-04-01

The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.

Modeling thermospheric neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying

Satellite drag prediction requires determination of thermospheric neutral density. The NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and the global-mean Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) were used to quantify thermospheric neutral density and its variations, focusing on annual/semiannual variation, the effect of using measured solar irradiance on model calculations of solar-cycle variation, and global change in the thermosphere. Satellite drag data and the MSIS00 empirical model were utilized to compare to the TIEGCM simulations. The TIEGCM simulations indicated that eddy diffusion and its annual/semiannual variation is a mechanism for annual/semiannual density variation in the thermosphere. It was found that eddy diffusion near the turbopause can effectively influence thermospheric neutral density. Eddy diffusion, together with annual insolation variation and large-scale circulation, generated global annual/semiannual density variation observed by satellite drag. Using measured solar irradiance as solar input for the TIEGCM improved the solar-cycle dependency of the density calculation shown in F10.7 -based thermospheric empirical models. It has been found that the empirical models overestimate density at low solar activity. The TIEGCM simulations did not show such solar-cycle dependency. Using historic measurements of CO2 and F 10.7, simulations of the global-mean TIMEGCM showed that thermospheric neutral density at 400 km had an average long-term decrease of 1.7% per decade from 1970 to 2000. A forecast of density decrease for solar cycle 24 suggested that thermospheric density will decrease at 400 km from present to the end of solar cycle 24 at a rate of 2.7% per decade. Reduction in thermospheric density causes less atmospheric drag on earth-orbiting space objects. The implication of this long-term decrease of thermospheric neutral density is that it will increase the lifetime of satellites, but also it will increase the amount of space junk.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, P.; Tung, K. K.

2008-04-01

Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.

2016-12-01

Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.

SSI Variations in the visible as observed with SOLAR/SOLSPEC during cycle 24 - Comparison with SORCE/SIM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irbah, A.; Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.

2017-12-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and its temporal variations are of prime importance to apprehend the physics of the Sun and to understand its effects on Earth climate through changes of atmospheric properties. Ground based measurements of SSI are indeed affected by the Earth atmosphere and space observations are therefore required to perform adequate observations. Only a few long series of SSI space measurements were obtained these last decades. The SOLSPEC instrument of the SOLAR payload on the International Space Station (ISS) has recorded one of them from April 2008 to February 2017 covering almost the whole solar cycle 24. The instrument is a spectro-radiometer recording data of the Sun from 166 to 3088 nm. Operated from the ISS in a harsh environment it needed appropriate processing methods to extract significant scientific results from noise and instrumental effects. We present the methods used to process the data to evidence visible SSI variations during cycle 24. We discuss the results obtained showing SSI variations in phase with solar activity. We compare them with SORCE/SIM measurements.

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Ionospheric effects of the extreme solar activity of February 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boska, J.; Pancheva, D.

1989-01-01

During February 1986, near the minimum of the 11 year Solar sunspot cycle, after a long period of totally quiet solar activity (R sub z = 0 on most days in January) a period of a suddenly enhanced solar activity occurred in the minimum between solar cycles 21 and 22. Two proton flares were observed during this period. A few other flares, various phenomena accompanying proton flares, an extremely severe geomagnetic storm and strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere were observed in this period of enhanced solar activity. Two active regions appeared on the solar disc. The flares in both active regions were associated with enhancement of solar high energy proton flux which started on 4 February of 0900 UT. Associated with the flares, the magnetic storm with sudden commencement had its onset on 6 February 1312 UT and attained its maximum on 8 February (Kp = 9). The sudden enhancement in solar activity in February 1986 was accompanied by strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere, SIDs and ionospheric storm. These events and their effects on the ionosphere are discussed.

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Effects of long-period solar activity fluctuation on temperature and pressure of the terrestrial atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubashev, B. M.

1978-01-01

The present state of research on the influence of solar sunspot activity on tropospheric temperature and pressure is reviewed. The existence of an 11-year temperature cycle of 5 different types is affirmed. A cyclic change in atmospheric pressure, deducing characteristic changes between 11-year cycles is discussed. The existence of 80-year and 5-to-6-year cycles of temperature is established, and physical causes for birth are suggested.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Solar Effects of Low-Earth Orbit objects in ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrin, A. B.; Anz-Meador, P.; Kelley, R. L.

2014-01-01

Variances in atmospheric density are directly related to the variances in solar flux intensity between 11- year solar cycles. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0) uses a solar flux table as input for calculating orbital lifetime of intact and debris objects in Low-Earth Orbit. Long term projections in solar flux activity developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) extend the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center (NOAA/SEC) daily historical flux values with a 5-year projection. For purposes of programmatic scheduling, the Q2 2009 solar flux table was chosen for ORDEM 3.0. Current solar flux activity shows that the current solar cycle has entered a period of lower solar flux intensity than previously forecasted in 2009. This results in a deviation of the true orbital debris environment propagation in ORDEM 3.0. In this paper, we present updated orbital debris populations in LEO using the latest solar flux values. We discuss the effects on recent breakup events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test and the Iridium 33 / Cosmos 2251 accidental collision. Justifications for chosen solar flux tables are discussed.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2009-04-01

We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

A Correlation Between Changes in Solar Luminosity and Differential Radius Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kroll, R. J.; Hill, H. A.; Beardsley, B. J.

1990-01-01

Solar luminosity variations occurring during solar cycle 21 can be attributed in large part to the presence of sunspots and faculae. Nevertheless, there remains a residual portion of the luminosity variation distinctly unaccounted for by these phenomena of solar activity. At the Santa Catalina Laboratory for Experimental Relativity by Astrometry (SCLERA), observations of the solar limb are capable of detecting changes in the solar limb darkening function by monitoring a quantity known as the differential radius. These observations are utilized in such a way that the effects of solar activity are minimized in order to reveal the more fundamental structure of the photosphere. The results of observations made during solar cycle 21 at various solar latitudes indicate that a measurable change did occur in the global photospheric limb darkening function. It is proposed that the residual luminosity change is associated in part with this change in limb darkening.

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

PubMed Central

Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Popova, E.; Zharkov, S. I.

2015-01-01

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. PMID:26511513

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

foF2 vs solar indices for the Rome station: Looking for the best general relation which is able to describe the anomalous minimum between cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perna, L.; Pezzopane, M.

2016-10-01

Analyses of the dependence of the F2layer critical frequency, foF2, on five widely used solar activity indices (F10.7, Lym-α, MgII, R and EUV0.1-50)are carried out considering noon values manually validated at the ionospheric station of Rome (41.8°N, 12.5°E, Italy) between January 1976 and December 2013, a period of time covering the last three solar cycles and including the prolonged and anomalous minimum of solar cycle 23/24 (years 2008-2009). After applying a 1-year running mean to both foF2 and solar activity indices time series, a second order polynomial fitting proves to perform better than a linear one, and this is specifically due to the very low solar activity of the last solar minimum and to the remaining saturation effect characterizing the high solar activity. A comparison between observed and synthetic foF2 values, the latter calculated by using the analytical relations found for every index, and some considerations made on the R parameter introduced by Solomon et al. (2013), suggest that MgII is the best index to describe the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity. Three main reasons justify this result: (1) the good sensibility of MgII to the variations of foF2 for low solar activity; (2) the reduced saturation effect characterizing MgII at high solar activity; (3) the poor influence of the hysteresis effect characterizing MgII at medium solar activity. On the other hand, the F10.7 index, widely used as input parameter for numerous ionospheric models, does not represent properly the last minimum; specifically, it is not able to describe the variations of foF2 under a solar activity level of F10.7=82·10-22 [J Hz-1 s-1 m-2].

The Complexity of Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2017-08-01

How far in advance can the sunspot number be predicted with any degree of confidence? Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Statistical and timeseries analyses of the sunspot number are often used to predict solar activity. These methods have not been completely successful as the solar dynamo changes over time and one cycle's sunspots are not a faithful predictor of the next cycle's activity. In some ways, using these techniques is similar to asking whether the stock market can be predicted. It has been shown that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can be more accurately predicted during periods when it obeys certain statistical properties than at other times. The Hurst exponent is one such way to partition the data. Another measure of the complexity of a timeseries is the fractal dimension. We can use these measures of complexity to compare the sunspot number with other solar and geomagnetic indices. Our concentration is on how trends are removed by the various techniques, either internally or externally. Comparisons of the statistical properties of the various solar indices may guide us in understanding how the dynamo manifests in the various indices and the Sun.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS), "Solar Energy Flux Study: from the interior to the outer layer" — Working Group 1 report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pap, Judit; Fröhlich, Claus

The purpose of this report is to describe the research activities and plans of Working Group 1: "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" of the International Solar Cycle Study (ISCS), which is an international research organization operating under the auspices of the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). As part of the report, we also summarize the status of the measurements and results on the solar energy flux variations. The main objective of ISCS's Working Group 1 is to coordinate and support comprehensive international research of the variations in the solar energy flux during the rising portion and maximum of solar cycle 23. The research activities of ISCS's Working Group 1 will concentrate on the following tasks: (1) to measure and study the variations in the solar radiative and mass output and solar activity indices during the solar activity cycle, (2) to understand why the solar radiative and mass output and the solar activity indices vary during the solar cycle, and (3) to study the role of solar variability in solar-terrestrial changes and its contribution to global change. ISCS WG1 "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" has been divided into three panels: •| Panel 1: Variations in Total and Spectral Irradiance from Infrared to Far UV. Panel leaders: Martin Anklin of the Physikalisch-Meteorologishes Observatorium Davos, Switzerland (total irradiance), Gerard Thuillier of the Service d'Aeronomie-CNRS, Verrieres, France (visible and infrared), and Linton Floyd of the Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, USA (ultraviolet). •| Panel 2: Variations in EUV, X-ray and Particle Fluxes. Panel leaders: Gerhard Schmidtke of Fraunhofer IPM, Freiburg, Germany and W. Kent Tobiska of FDC/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA (EUV/XUV), and David Winningham of the Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, USA (particles). •| Panel 3: Solar Indices, Cosmogenic Isotopes, Solar-Stellar Relations. Panel leaders: Gary Chapman of the San Fernando Observatory, CSUN, Northridge, CA, USA (solar indices), Juerg Beer of Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland (cosmogenic isotopes), and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA (solar-stellar relations). The first two panels concentrate on solar energy flux measurements, whereas the third panel concentrates on solar indices and alternative ways to model and predict irradiance variations at various wavelengths and their terrestrial/climate effects. Working Group 1 of ISCS has supported and adopted the "Thermospheric-Ionospheric Geospheric Research (TIGER)" program as part of ISCS/WG1/Panel 2. The main objectives of TIGER are to measure, model, and interpret solar EUV/UV and particle fluxes and to study and model their effect on the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere (see details by Schmidtke et al., 2001, this volume). This approach links ISCS/WG1 activities directly with studies of our space environment.

Pluto's Haze from 2002 - 2015: Correlation with the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Eliot; Klein, Viliam; Hartig, Kara; Resnick, Aaron; Mackie, Jason; Carriazo, Carolina; Watson, Charles; Skrutskie, Michael; Verbiscer, Anne; Nelson, Matthew; Howell, Robert; Wasserman, Lawrence; Hudson, Gordon; Gault, David; Barry, Tony; Sicardy, Bruno; Cole, Andrew; Giles, Barry; Hill, Kym

2017-04-01

Occultations by Pluto were observed 2002, 2007, 2011 and 2015, with each event observed simultaneously in two or more wavelengths. Separate wavelengths allow us to discriminate between haze opacity and refractive effects due to an atmosphere's thermal profile - these two effects are notoriously hard to separate if only single-wavelength lightcurves are available. Of those four occultations, the amount of haze in Pluto's atmosphere was highest in 2002 (Elliot et al. 2003 report an optical depth of 0.11 at 0.73 µm in the zenith direction), but undetectable in the 2007 and 2011 events (we find optical depth upper limits of 0.012 and 0.010 at 0.6 µm). Cheng et al. (2016) report a zenith optical depth of 0.018 at 0.6 µm from the haze profiles seen in New Horizons images. These four data points are correlated with the solar cycle. The 2002 haze detection occurred just after the peak of solar cycle 23, the 2007 and 2011 non-detections occurred during the solar minimum between peaks 23 and 24, and the New Horizons flyby took place just after the peak of solar cycle 24. This suggests that haze production on Pluto (a) is driven by solar UV photons or charged particles, (b) that sources and sinks on Pluto have timescales shorter than a few Earth years, and (c) the haze precursors on Pluto are not produced by Lyman-alpha radiation, because Lyman-alpha output only decreased by about one third in between the cycle 23 and 24 peaks, much less than the observed change in Pluto's haze abundances. References: Elliot, J.L. et al. (2003) Nature, Volume 424, Issue 6945, pp. 165-168.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.

Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle.

PubMed

Lewis, B J; Bennett, L G I; Green, A R; McCall, M J; Ellaschuk, B; Butler, A; Pierre, M

2002-01-01

An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure (PCAIRE) has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H x (10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidalmore » variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.« less

Erythrocytes Functional Features in the 11-YEAR Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parshina, S. S.; Tokayeva, L. K.; Dolgova, E. M.; Afanas'yeva, T. N.; Samsonov, S. N.; Petrova, V. D.; Vodolagina, E. S.; Kaplanova, T. I.; Potapova, M. V.

There had been studied features of rheological blood failures in patients with unstable angina (UA) in periods of the high (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) in the 23rd 11-year solar cycle. This category of patients is characterized by prethrombotic blood state, although they don't have coronary thrombosis. The research aimed to study compensatory mechanisms which block thrombosis development at the solar activity increase. There had been established that the period of the solar activity increasing in the 11-year solar cycle is characterized by an increase of a blood viscosity, comparing with the period of a low solar activity. Though, erythrocytes functional features in this case are compensatory mechanisms - erythrocyte aggregation paradoxically reduced and their deformability increases. It is probably connected with the revealed fibrinogen decrease in the period of the high solar activity. We can see that the change of a solar activity is accompanied not only by the progressing of pathologic processes, but also by an activation of adaptive changes in erythrocyte membrane so0 as to prevent thrombosis. Though, the required compensatory mechanisms were found invalid, which were shown in the decrease of an oxygen delivery to tissues, and the effectiveness decrease of the medical treatment in the period of a HSA.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less

A stochastically forced time delay solar dynamo model: Self-consistent recovery from a maunder-like grand minimum necessitates a mean-field alpha effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu; Passos, Dário, E-mail: s.hazra@iiserkol.ac.in, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: dnandi@iiserkol.ac.in

Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspotmore » cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.« less

The Nature of Variations in Anomalies of the Chemical Composition of the Solar Corona with the 11-Year Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipin, V. V.; Tomozov, V. M.

2018-04-01

Evidence that the distribution of the abundances of admixtures with low first-ionization potentials (FIP < 10 eV) in the lower solar corona could be associated with the typology of the largescale magnetic field is presented. Solar observations show an enhancement in the abundances of elements with low FIPs compared to elements with high FIPs (>10 eV) in active regions and closed magnetic configurations in the lower corona. Observations with the ULYSSES spacecraft and at the Stanford Solar Observatory have revealed strong correlations between the manifestation of the FIP effect in the solar wind, the strength of the open magnetic flux (without regard to sign), and the ratio of the large-scale toroidal and poloidal magnetic fields at the solar surface. Analyses of observations of the Sun as a star show that the enhancement of the abundances of admixtures with low FIPs in the corona compared to their abundances in the photosphere (the FIP effect) is closely related to the solar-activity cycle and also with variations in the topology of the large-scale magnetic field. A possible mechanism for the relationship between the FIP effect and the spectral type of a star is discussed in the framework of solar-stellar analogies.

Solar Thermochemical Energy Storage Through Carbonation Cycles of SrCO3/SrO Supported on SrZrO3.

PubMed

Rhodes, Nathan R; Barde, Amey; Randhir, Kelvin; Li, Like; Hahn, David W; Mei, Renwei; Klausner, James F; AuYeung, Nick

2015-11-01

Solar thermochemical energy storage has enormous potential for enabling cost-effective concentrated solar power (CSP). A thermochemical storage system based on a SrO/SrCO3 carbonation cycle offers the ability to store and release high temperature (≈1200 °C) heat. The energy density of SrCO3/SrO systems supported by zirconia-based sintering inhibitors was investigated for 15 cycles of exothermic carbonation at 1150 °C followed by decomposition at 1235 °C. A sample with 40 wt % of SrO supported by yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) shows good energy storage stability at 1450 MJ m(-3) over fifteen cycles at the same cycling temperatures. After further testing over 45 cycles, a decrease in energy storage capacity to 1260 MJ m(-3) is observed during the final cycle. The decrease is due to slowing carbonation kinetics, and the original value of energy density may be obtained by lengthening the carbonation steps. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Modern representation of databases on the example of the Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishkov, V. N.; Zabarinskaya, L. P.; Sergeeva, N. A.

2017-11-01

The development of studies of solar sources and their effects on the state of the near-Earth space required systematization of the corresponding information in the form of databases and catalogs for the entire time of observation of any geoeffective phenomenon that includes, if possible at the time of creation, all of the characteristics of the phenomena themselves and the sources of these phenomena on the Sun. A uniform presentation of information in the form of a series of similar catalogs that cover long time intervals is of particular importance. The large amount of information collected in such catalogs makes it necessary to use modern methods of its organization and presentation that allow a transition between individual parts of the catalog and a quick search for necessary events and their characteristics, which is implemented in the presented Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity of the sequence of catalogs (six separate issues) that cover the period from 1970 to 2009 (20th-23rd solar cycles).

A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

2015-04-01

The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Effects of Solar Activities on Tropospheric Thermodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee; Wharton, Stephen W. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Whether the Sun has significantly influenced the climate during the last century has been under extensive debates for almost two decades. Since the solar irradiance varies very little in a solar cycle, it is puzzling that some geophysical parameters show proportionally large variations which appear to be responding to the solar cycles. For example, variation in low altitude clouds is shown correlated with solar cycle, and the onset of Forbush decrease is shown correlated with the reduction of the vorticity area index. A possible sun-climate connection is that galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activities influence cloud formation. In this paper, we apply wavelet transform to satellite and surface data to examine this hypothesis. Data analyzed include the time series for solar irradiance, sunspots, UV index, temperature, cloud coverage, and neutron counter measurements. The interactions among the elements in the Earth System under the external and internal forcings give out very complex signals.The periodicity of the forcings or signals could range widely. Since wavelet transforms can analyze multi-scale phenomena that are both localized in frequency and time, it is a very useful technique for detecting, understanding and monitoring climate changes.

Ancient cellular structures and modern humans: change of survival strategies before prolonged low solar activity period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragulskaya, Mariya; Rudenchik, Evgeniy; Gromozova, Elena; Voychuk, Sergei; Kachur, Tatiana

The study of biotropic effects of modern space weather carries the information about the rhythms and features of adaptation of early biological systems to the outer space influence. The influence of cosmic rays, ultraviolet waves and geomagnetic field on early life has its signs in modern biosphere processes. These phenomena could be experimentally studied on present-day biological objects. Particularly inorganic polyphosphates, so-called "fossil molecules", attracts special attention as the most ancient molecules which arose in inanimate nature and have been accompanying biological objects at all stages of evolution. Polyphosphates-containing graves of yeast's cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain Y-517, , from the Ukrainian Collection of Microorganisms was studied by daily measurements during 2000-2013 years. The IZMIRAN daily data base of physiological parameters dynamics during 2000-2013 years were analyzed simultaneously (25 people). The analysis showed significant simultaneous changes of the statistical parameters of the studied biological systems in 2004 -2006. The similarity of simultaneous changes of adaptation strategies of human organism and the cell structures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae during the 23-24 cycles of solar activity are discussed. This phenomenon could be due to a replacement of bio-effective parameters of space weather during the change from 23rd to 24th solar activity cycle and nonstandard geophysical peculiarities of the 24th solar activity cycle. It could be suggested that the observed similarity arose as the optimization of evolution selection of the living systems in expectation of probable prolonged period of low solar activity (4-6 cycles of solar activity).

Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z.

2014-07-01

Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.

ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less

ACTIVITY-BRIGHTNESS CORRELATIONS FOR THE SUN AND SUN-LIKE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preminger, D. G.; Chapman, G. A.; Cookson, A. M.

2011-10-01

We analyze the effect of solar features on the variability of the solar irradiance in three different spectral ranges. Our study is based on two solar-cycles' worth of full-disk photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory, obtained with red, blue, and Ca II K-line filters. For each image we measure the photometric sum, {Sigma}, which is the relative contribution of solar features to the disk-integrated intensity of the image. The photometric sums in the red and blue continuum, {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub b}, exhibit similar temporal patterns: they are negatively correlated with solar activity, with strong short-term variability, and weakmore » solar-cycle variability. However, the Ca II K-line photometric sum, {Sigma}{sub K}, is positively correlated with solar activity and has strong variations on solar-cycle timescales. We show that we can model the variability of the Sun's bolometric flux as a linear combination of {Sigma}{sub r} and {Sigma}{sub K}. We infer that, over solar-cycle timescales, the variability of the Sun's bolometric irradiance is directly correlated with spectral line variability, but inversely correlated with continuum variability. Our blue and red continuum filters are quite similar to the Stroemgren b and y filters used to measure stellar photometric variability. We conclude that active stars whose visible continuum brightness varies inversely with activity, as measured by the Ca HK index, are displaying a pattern that is similar to that of the Sun, i.e., radiative variability in the visible continuum that is spot-dominated.« less

Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L.

2017-09-01

We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS.

Galactic CR in the Heliosphere according to NM data, 3. Results for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L.; Dorman, I.; Iucci, N.; Parisi, M.; Villoresi, G.; Zukerman, I.

We found that the maximum of correlation coefficient between cosmic ray (CR) intensity and solar activity (SA) variations is occurred for even cycles 20 and 22 for about two-three times in the shorter time than for odd cycles 19 and 21. We came to conclusion that this difference is caused by CR drift effects: during even cycle drifts produced the small increasing of CR global modulation (additional to the caused by convection-diffusion mechanism) in the period from minimum to maximum of SA, and after the maximum of SA up to the minimum- about the same decreasing of CR modulation. This gives sufficient decreasing of observed time lag between CR and- SA in even solar cycles. We analyzed monthly and 11 months smoothed data of (CR) intensity observed by neutron monitors with different cut-off rigidities for even solar cycles 20 and 22. We use a special model described the connection between solar activity (characterized by monthly sunspot numbers) and CR convection- diff usion global modulation with taking into account time-lag of processes in the Heliosphere relative to the active processes on the Sun. For taking into account drifts we use models described in literature. In the first we correct observed long-term CR modulation on drifts with different amplitudes from 0 (no drifts), then 0.15%, 0.25%,... up to 4%. For each expected amplitude of drifts we determine the correlation coefficient between expected CR variations and observed by neutron monitors with different cut - off rigidities for different times of solar wind transportation from the Sun to the boundary of the modulation region from 1 to 60 average months (it corresponds approximately to dimension of modulation region from about 6 to 360 AU). We compare observed res ults for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

How active was solar cycle 22?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

1993-01-01

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Large scale solar magnetic fields at the site of flares, the greatness of flares, and solar-terrestrial disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodson, H. W.; Hedeman, E. R.; Roelof, E. C.

1982-01-01

Evidence is presented for an intrinsically solar effect which may dominate such solar-terrestrial correlations as that reported by Chertkov (1976), where large H-alpha flares during 1967-1972 in solar active regions with overlying fields on a 100,000 km scale and predominantly north-to-south orientation were more efficient in the production of geomagnetic disturbances than comparable flares in regions whose fields at the flare sites were directed south-to-north. In addition to being responsible for geomagnetic disturbance enhancements, this purely solar effect may cause solar wind velocity and solar flare proton flux enhancements. If the effect can be generalized to other portions of the solar cycle, it could improve present understanding of the flare mechanism and therefore prove useful in the prediction of solar-terrestrial disturbances.

Search for Teff variations along the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccin, B.; Penza, V.

The measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show the existence of variations on characteristic times going from few minutes to whole solar cycle, as a result of different physical mechanisms acting on different temporal scales. Along the cycle delta (TSI) is the order of 0.15%, in phase with the magnetic activity (cf. Fröhlich, \\cite{frohlich}), attributed mainly to the overcompensation of the facular brightness vs the spot darkness and to a network variation. The problem of determining also a possible contribution due to a global variation of the photospheric background remains open. \\ Here we study the variations of the line-depth ratios measured by Gray and Livingston (\\cite{grayliv97a}, \\cite{grayliv97b}) to determine delta Teff along the cycle and show that they cannot be attributed to a modulation of the photospheric background alone, but that active region effects are, probably, dominant.

Obliquity Modulation of the Incoming Solar Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Based on a basic principle of orbital resonance, we have identified a huge deficit of solar radiation induced by the combined amplitude and frequency modulation of the Earth's obliquity as possibly the causal mechanism for ice age glaciation. Including this modulation effect on solar radiation, we have performed model simulations of climate change for the past 2 million years. Simulation results show that: (1) For the past 1 million years, temperature fluctuation cycles were dominated by a 100-Kyr period due to amplitude-frequency resonance effect of the obliquity; (2) From 2 to 1 million years ago, the amplitude-frequency interactions. of the obliquity were so weak that they were not able to stimulate a resonance effect on solar radiation; (3) Amplitude and frequency modulation analysis on solar radiation provides a series of resonance in the incoming solar radiation which may shift the glaciation cycles from 41-Kyr to 100-Kyr about 0.9 million years ago. These results are in good agreement with the marine and continental paleoclimate records. Thus, the proposed climate response to the combined amplitude and frequency modulation of the Earth's obliquity may be the key to understanding the glaciation puzzles in paleoclimatology.

42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-07-01

Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients.

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V.

2012-01-01

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Spectroscopic planetary detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, Drake

1988-01-01

One of the most promising methods for the detection of extra-solar planets is the spectroscopic method, where a small Doppler shift (approximately 10 meters/sec) in the spectrum of the parent star reveals the presence of planetary companions. However, solar-type stars may show spurious Doppler shifts due to surface activity. If these effects are periodic, as is the solar activity cycle, then they may masquerade as planetary companions. The goal of this investigation is to determine whether the solar cycle affects the Doppler stability of integrated sunlight. Observations of integrated sunlight are made in the near infrared (approximately 2 micrometer), using the Kitt Peak McMath Fourier transform spectrometer, with an N2O gas absorption cell for calibration. Researchers currently achieve an accuracy of approximately 5 meters/sec. Solar rotation velocities vary by plus or minus 2000 meters/sec across the solar disk, and imperfect optical integration of these velocities is the principal source of error. We have been monitoring the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight since 1983. They initially saw a decrease of approximately 30 meters/sec in the integrated light velocity from 1983 through 1985, but in 1987 to 1988 the integrated light velocity returned to its 1983 level. It is too early to say whether these changes are solar-cycle related. Although the FTS, unlike a slit spectrograph, has a large field of view, researchers are always looking for ways to improve the optical integration of the solar disk. They recently made an improvement in the method used to optically collimate the FTS, and this has reduced the error level, eliminating some systematic effects seen earlier.

Large Geomagnetic Storms: Introduction to Special Section

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.

2010-01-01

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the accumulation of rich data sets that reveal various aspects of geomagnetic storms in unprecedented detail both at the Sun where the storm causing disturbances originate and in geospace where the effects of the storms are directly felt. During two recent coordinated data analysis workshops (CDAWs) the large geomagnetic storms (Dst < or = -100 nT) of solar cycle 23 were studied in order to understand their solar, interplanetary, and geospace connections. This special section grew out of these CDAWs with additional contributions relevant to these storms. Here I provide a brief summary of the results presented in the special section.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-01-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

Solar particle dose rate buildup and distribution in critical body organs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwell, William; Weyland, Mark D.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

1993-01-01

Human body organs have varying degrees of radiosensitivity as evidenced by radioepidemiologic tables. The major critical organs for both the male and female that have been identified include the lung, thyroid, stomach, and breast (female). Using computerized anatomical models of the 50th percentile United States Air Force male and female, we present the self-shielding effects of these various body organs and how the shielding effects change as the location (dose point) in the body varies. Several major solar proton events from previous solar cycles and several events from the current 22nd solar cycle have been analyzed. The solar particle event rise time, peak intensity, and decay time vary considerably from event to event. Absorbed dose and dose equivalent rate calculations and organ risk assessment data are presented for each critical body organ. These data are compared with the current NASA astronaut dose limits as recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

Evaluation of thermal control coatings for use on solar dynamic radiators in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dever, Joyce A.; Rodriguez, Elvin; Slemp, Wayne S.; Stoyack, Joseph E.

1991-01-01

Thermal control coatings with high thermal emittance and low solar absorptance are needed for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic power module radiator (SDR) surfaces for efficient heat rejection. Additionally, these coatings must be durable to low earth orbital (LEO) environmental effects of atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation and deep thermal cycles which occur as a result of start-up and shut-down of the solar dynamic power system. Eleven candidate coatings were characterized for their solar absorptance and emittance before and after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation (200 to 400 nm), vacuum UV (VUV) radiation (100 to 200 nm) and atomic oxygen. Results indicated that the most durable and best performing coatings were white paint thermal control coatings Z-93, zinc oxide pigment in potassium silicate binder, and YB-71, zinc orthotitanate pigment in potassium silicate binder. Optical micrographs of these materials exposed to the individual environmental effects of atomic oxygen and vacuum thermal cycling showed that no surface cracking occurred.

Evaluation of thermal control coatings for use on solar dynamic radiators in low Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dever, Joyce A.; Rodriguez, Elvin; Slemp, Wayne S.; Stoyack, Joseph E.

1991-01-01

Thermal control coatings with high thermal emittance and low solar absorptance are needed for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic power module radiator (SDR) surfaces for efficient heat rejection. Additionally, these coatings must be durable to low earth orbital (LEO) environmental effects of atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation and deep thermal cycles which occur as a result of start-up and shut-down of the solar dynamic power system. Eleven candidate coatings were characterized for their solar absorptance and emittance before and after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation (200 to 400 nm), vacuum UV (VUV) radiation (100 to 200 nm) and atomic oxygen. Results indicated that the most durable and best performing coatings were white paint thermal control coatings Z-93, zinc oxide pigment in potassium silicate binder, and YB-71, zinc orthotitanate pigment in potassium silicate binder. Optical micrographs of these materials exposed to the individual environmental effects of atomic oxygen and vacuum thermal cycling showed that no surface cracking occurred.

Solar power satellite life-cycle energy recovery consideration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead on monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on earth (rectenna) requires about 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production installation and operation, is about two years.

Three-dimensional features of the outer heliosphere due to coupling between the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields. IV. Solar cycle model based on Ulysses observations

DOE PAGES

Pogorelov, N. V.; Suess, S. T.; Borovikov, S. N.; ...

2013-06-26

The solar cycle has a profound influence on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) on more than one timescales. Also, there are substantial differences in individual solar cycle lengths and SW behavior within them. The presence of a slow SW belt, with a variable latitudinal extent changing within each solar cycle from rather small angles to 90°, separated from the fast wind that originates at coronal holes substantially affects plasma in the inner heliosheath (IHS)—the SW region between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP). The solar cycle may be the reason why themore » complicated flow structure is observed in the IHS by Voyager 1. Here, we show that a substantial decrease in the SW ram pressure observed by Ulysses between the TS crossings by Voyager 1 and 2 contributes significantly to the difference in the heliocentric distances at which these crossings occurred. The Ulysses spacecraft is the source of valuable information about the three-dimensional and time-dependent properties of the SW. Its unique fast latitudinal scans of the SW regions make it possible to create a solar cycle model based on the spacecraft in situ measurements. On the basis of our analysis of the Ulysses data over the entire life of the mission, we generated time-dependent boundary conditions at 10 AU from the Sun and applied our MHD-neutral model to perform a numerical simulation of the SW-LISM interaction. We analyzed the global variations in the interaction pattern, the excursions of the TS and the HP, and the details of the plasma and magnetic field distributions in the IHS. The resulting numbers are compared with Voyager data as functions of time in the spacecraft frame. We also discuss solar cycle effects which may be reasons for the recent decrease in the TS particles (ions accelerated to anomalous cosmic-ray energies) flux observed by Voyager 1.« less

The solar dynamo and prediction of sunspot cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, Mausumi

2012-07-01

Much progress has been made in understanding the solar dynamo since Parker first developed the concepts of dynamo waves and magnetic buoyancy around 1955, and the German school first formulated the solar dynamo using the mean-field formalism. The essential ingredients of these mean-field dynamos are turbulent magnetic diffusivity, a source of lifting of flux, or 'alpha-effect', and differential rotation. With the advent of helioseismic and other observations at the Sun's photosphere and interior, as well as theoretical understanding of solar interior dynamics, solar dynamo models have evolved both in the realm of mean-field and beyond mean-field models. After briefly discussing the status of these models, I will focus on a class of mean-field model, called flux-transport dynamos, which include meridional circulation as an essential additional ingredient. Flux-transport dynamos have been successful in simulating many global solar cycle features, and have reached the stage that they can be used for making solar cycle predictions. Meridional circulation works in these models like a conveyor-belt, carrying a memory of the magnetic fields from 5 to 20 years back in past. The lower is the magnetic diffusivity, the longer is the model's memory. In the terrestrial system, the great-ocean conveyor-belt in oceanic models and Hadley, polar and Ferrel circulation cells in the troposphere, carry signatures from the past climatological events and influence the determination of future events. Analogously, the memory provided by the Sun's meridional circulation creates the potential for flux-transport dynamos to predict future solar cycle properties. Various groups in the world have built flux-transport dynamo-based predictive tools, which nudge the Sun's surface magnetic data and integrated forward in time to forecast the amplitude of the currently ascending cycle 24. Due to different initial conditions and different choices of unknown model-ingredients, predictions can vary; so it is for their cycle 24 forecasts. We all await the peak of cycle 24. I will close by discussing the prospects of improving dynamo-based predictive tools using more sophisticated data-assimilation techniques, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter method and variational approaches.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL FEATURES OF THE OUTER HELIOSPHERE DUE TO COUPLING BETWEEN THE INTERSTELLAR AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. IV. SOLAR CYCLE MODEL BASED ON ULYSSES OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pogorelov, N. V.; Zank, G. P.; Suess, S. T.

2013-07-20

The solar cycle has a profound influence on the solar wind (SW) interaction with the local interstellar medium (LISM) on more than one timescales. Also, there are substantial differences in individual solar cycle lengths and SW behavior within them. The presence of a slow SW belt, with a variable latitudinal extent changing within each solar cycle from rather small angles to 90 Degree-Sign , separated from the fast wind that originates at coronal holes substantially affects plasma in the inner heliosheath (IHS)-the SW region between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP). The solar cycle may be the reasonmore » why the complicated flow structure is observed in the IHS by Voyager 1. In this paper, we show that a substantial decrease in the SW ram pressure observed by Ulysses between the TS crossings by Voyager 1 and 2 contributes significantly to the difference in the heliocentric distances at which these crossings occurred. The Ulysses spacecraft is the source of valuable information about the three-dimensional and time-dependent properties of the SW. Its unique fast latitudinal scans of the SW regions make it possible to create a solar cycle model based on the spacecraft in situ measurements. On the basis of our analysis of the Ulysses data over the entire life of the mission, we generated time-dependent boundary conditions at 10 AU from the Sun and applied our MHD-neutral model to perform a numerical simulation of the SW-LISM interaction. We analyzed the global variations in the interaction pattern, the excursions of the TS and the HP, and the details of the plasma and magnetic field distributions in the IHS. Numerical results are compared with Voyager data as functions of time in the spacecraft frame. We discuss solar cycle effects which may be reasons for the recent decrease in the TS particles (ions accelerated to anomalous cosmic-ray energies) flux observed by Voyager 1.« less

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

A Change in the Solar He II EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Didkovsky, L.; Gurman, J. B.

2013-01-01

Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk

2014-11-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less

Systems analysis techniques for annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baylin, F.

1980-07-01

Community-scale annual cycle thermal energy storage solar systems are options for building heat and cooling. A variety of approaches are feasible in modeling ACTES solar systems. The key parameter in such efforts, average collector efficiency, is examined, followed by several approaches for simple and effective modeling. Methods are also examined for modeling building loads for structures based on both conventional and passive architectural designs. Two simulation models for sizing solar heating systems with annual storage are presented. Validation is presented by comparison with the results of a study of seasonal storage systems based on SOLANSIM, an hour-by-hour simulation. These models are presently used to examine the economic trade-off between collector field area and storage capacity. Programs directed toward developing other system components such as improved tanks and solar ponds or design tools for ACTES solar systems are examined.

Effects of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray cycles on the modulation of the annual average temperature at two sites in southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigo, Everton; Antonelli, Francesco; da Silva, Djeniffer S. S.; Lima, Pedro C. M.; Pacca, Igor I. G.; Bageston, José V.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic variations in solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on decadal and bidecadal timescales have been suggested as a climate forcing mechanism for many regions on Earth. One of these regions is southern Brazil, where the lowest values during the last century were observed for the total geomagnetic field intensity at the Earth's surface. These low values are due to the passage of the center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), which crosses the Brazilian territory from east to west following a latitude of ˜ 26°. In areas with low geomagnetic intensity, such as the SAMA, the incidence of GCRs is increased. Consequently, possible climatic effects related to the GCRs tend to be maximized in this region. In this work, we investigate the relationship between the ˜ 11-year and ˜ 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26° S but at different longitudes. The first of these stations (Torres - TOR) is located in the coastal region, and the other (Iraí - IRA) is located in the interior, around 450 km from the Atlantic Ocean. Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR via a nonlinear mechanism, while at IRA, the effects of this 11-year modulation period were intermittent. Four temperature maxima, separated by around 20 years, were detected in the same years at both weather stations. These temperature maxima are almost coincident with the maxima of the odd solar cycles. Furthermore, these maxima occur after transitions from even to odd solar cycles, that is, after some years of intense GCR flux. The obtained results offer indirect mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. A comparison of the results obtained for the two weather stations indicates that the SAMA also contributes indirectly to these temperature variations. The contribution of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded.

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Long-term EEJ variations by using the improved EE-index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimoto, A.; Uozumi, T.; Abe, Sh.; Matsushita, H.; Imajo, Sh.; Ishitsuka, J. K.; Yoshikawa, A.

2016-03-01

In 2008, International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Kyushu University (ICSWSE) proposed the EE-index, which is an index to monitor the equatorial geomagnetic phenomena. EE-index has been improved with the development of the MAGnetic Data Acquisition System and the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (MAGDAS/CPMN) and the enormous archive of MAGDAS/CPMN data over 10 years since the initial article. Using the improved EE-index, we examined the solar cycle variation of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) by the time series analysis for EUEL (one part of EE-index) at Ancon in Peru and the solar activity from September 18, 1998 to March 31, 2015. We found that the long-term variation of daily EEJ peak intensity has a trend similar to that of F10.7 (the solar activity). The power spectrum of the daily EEJ peak has clearly two dominant peaks throughout the analysis interval: 14.5 days and 180 days (semi-annual). The solar cycle variation of daily EEJ peak correlates well with that of F10.7 (the correlation coefficient 0.99). We conclude that the daily EEJ peak intensity is roughly determined as the summation of the long-period trend of the solar activity resulting from the solar cycle and day-to-day variations caused by various sources such as lunar tides, geometric effects, magnetospheric phenomena and atmospheric phenomena. This work presents the primary evidence for solar cycle variations of EEJ on the long-term study of the EE-index

Propagation of Interplanetary Disturbances in the Outer Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chi

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: 1. We have developed a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric, multi-fluid MHD model that includes solar wind protons and electrons, pickup ions, and interstellar neutral hydrogen. This model advances the existing solar wind models for the outer heliosphere in two important ways: one is that it distinguishes solar wind protons from pickup ions, and the other is that it allows for energy transfer from pickup ions to the solar wind protons. Model results compare favorably with the Voyager 2 observations. 2. 2. Solar wind slowdown and interstellar neutral density. The solar wind in the outer heliosphere is fundamentally different from that in the inner heliosphere since the effects of interstellar neutrals become significant. 3. ICME propagation from the inner to outer heliosphere. Large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have major effects on the structure of the solar wind and the heliosphere. The plasma and magnetic field can be compressed ahead of interplanetary CMEs. 4. During the current solar cycle (Cycle 23), several major CMEs associated with solar flares produced large transient shocks which were observed by widely-separated spacecraft such as Wind at Earth and Voyager 2 beyond 60 AU. Using data from these spacecraft, we use the multi-fluid model to investigate shock propagation and interaction in the heliosphere. Specifically, we studied the Bastille Day 2000, April 2001 and Halloween 2003 events. 5. Statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. In a collaboration with L.F. Burlaga of GSFC, it is shown that the basic statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere can be well produced by our model. We studied the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field strength fluctuations as a function of distance from the Sun during the declining phase of a solar cycle, using our numerical model with observations made at 1 AU during 1995 as input. 6. Radial heliospheric magnetic field events. The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) direction, on average, conforms well to the Parker spiral.

Effects of meridional flow variations on solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H., E-mail: lisa.a.upton@vanderbilt.edu, E-mail: lar0009@uah.edu, E-mail: david.hathaway@nasa.gov

2014-09-10

The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow variations on the sunspot cycle, we have simulated the Sun's surface magnetic field evolution with our newly developed surface flux transport model. We investigate three different cases: a constant average meridional flow, the observed time-varying meridional flow, and a time-varying meridional flow in which the observed variations from the average have been doubled. Comparison of these simulations shows that the variationsmore » in the meridional flow over cycle 23 have a significant impact (∼20%) on the polar fields. However, the variations produced polar fields that were stronger than they would have been otherwise. We propose that the primary cause of the extended cycle 23/24 minimum and weak cycle 24 was the weakness of cycle 23 itself—with fewer sunspots, there was insufficient flux to build a big cycle. We also find that any polar counter-cells in the meridional flow (equatorward flow at high latitudes) produce flux concentrations at mid-to-high latitudes that are not consistent with observations.« less

The evolution of 1 AU equatorial solar wind and its association with the morphology of the heliospheric current sheet from solar cycles 23 to 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2014-09-20

The solar wind can be categorized into three types based on its 'freeze-in' temperature (T {sub freeze-in}) in the coronal source: low T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from coronal holes, high T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from regions outside of coronal holes, including streamers (helmet streamer and pseudostreamer), active regions, etc., and transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) usually possessing the hottest T {sub freeze-in}. The global distribution of these three types of wind has been investigated by examining the most effective T {sub freeze-in} indicator, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio, as measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometermore » on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) during 1998-2008 by Zhao et al. In this study, we extend the previous investigation to 2011 June, covering the unusual solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2007-2010) and the beginning of solar cycle 24. We find that during the entire solar cycle, from the ascending phase of cycle 23 in 1998 to the ascending phase of cycle 24 in 2011, the average fractions of the low O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (LOR) wind, the high O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (HOR) wind, and ICMEs at 1 AU are 50.3%, 39.4%, and 10.3%, respectively; the contributions of the three types of wind evolve with time in very different ways. In addition, we compare the evolution of the HOR wind with two heliospheric current sheet (HCS) parameters, which indicate the latitudinal standard deviation (SD) and the slope (SL) of the HCS on the synoptic Carrington maps at 2.5 solar radii surface. We find that the fraction of HOR wind correlates with SD and SL very well (slightly better with SL than with SD), especially after 2005. This result verifies the link between the production of HOR wind and the morphology of the HCS, implying that at least one of the major sources of the HOR wind must be associated with the HCS.« less

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer

2009-08-01

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less

Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A. Q.; Wang, J. X.; Li, J. W.; Feynman, J.; Zhang, J.

2011-10-01

Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims: We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods: We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21-23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19-23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19-23 are studied statistically. Results: Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21-23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. The latitudinal distributions of SARs display the Maunder butterfly diagrams and SARs occur preferentially in the maximum period of each solar cycle. Northern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 19 and 20 and southern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 21 and 22. In solar cycle 23, however, SARs occurred about equally in each hemisphere. There are two active longitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, about 160°-200° apart. Applying the improved dynamic reference frame to SARs, we find that SARs rotate faster than the Carrington rate and there is no significant difference between the two hemispheres. The synodic periods are 27.19 days and 27.25 days for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The longitudinal distribution of SARs is significantly non-axisymmetric and about 75% SARs occurred near two active longitudes with half widths of 45°. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Comparison of Total Solar Irradiance with NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph Data in Solar Cycles 22 and 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harrison P.; Branston, Detrick D.; Jones, Patricia B.; Popescu, Miruna D.

2002-01-01

An earlier study compared NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) data with spacecraft measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations over a 1.5 year period in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. This paper extends the analysis to an eight-year period which also spans the rising and early maximum phases of cycle 23. The conclusions of the earlier work appear to be robust: three factors (sunspots, strong unipolar regions, and strong mixed polarity regions) describe most of the variation in the SPM record, but only the first two are associated with TSI. Additionally, the residuals of a linear multiple regression of TSI against SPM observations over the entire eight-year period show an unexplained, increasing, linear time variation with a rate of about 0.05 W m(exp -2) per year. Separate regressions for the periods before and after 1996 January 01 show no unexplained trends but differ substantially in regression parameters. This behavior may reflect a solar source of TSI variations beyond sunspots and faculae but more plausibly results from uncompensated non-solar effects in one or both of the TSI and SPM data sets.

Spectroscopic planetary detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, Drake

1991-01-01

One of the most promising methods for the detection of extra-solar planets is the spectroscopic method, where a small Doppler shift (approx. 10 meter/sec) in the spectrum of the parent star reveals the presence of planetary companions. However, solar type stars may show spurious Doppler shifts due to surface activity. If these effects are periodic, as is the solar activity cycle, then they may masquerade as planetary companions. The goal of this study was to determine whether the solar cycle affects the Doppler stability of integrated sunlight. Observations of integrated sunlight were made in the near infrared (approx. 2 micron), using the Kitt Peak McMath Fourier transform spectrometer, with a N2O gas absorption cell for calibration. An accuracy of approx. 5 meter/sec was achieved.

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.; Abreu, J.; Steinhilber, F.

2009-12-01

The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was <1nT at Hale minima during the Spoerer Minimum and late in the Maunder Minimum. The Sun was at a minimum of the Hallstatt (2200yr) cycle of activity in the 15th century, and is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that there was a greater production of impulsive solar energetic particle events in the solar cycles of reduced solar activity 1880-1910. Based on these observations, three scenarios for the next several decades will be outlined- (a) a single, deep sunspot minimum followed by an active sun; (b) several cycles of reduced solar activity similar to 1880-1910; and (c) a “Grand Minimum” with one or more 11 year cycles of very low activity similar to the Dalton Minimum.

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reedy, R. C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity.

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

Investigation of Solar about 5-Month Cycle in Human Circulating Melatonin: Signature of Weather in Extraterrestrial Space?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornélissen, G.; Tarquini, R.; Perfetto, F.; Otsuka, K.; Gigolashvili, M.; Halberg, F.

2009-12-01

Melatonin, produced mainly in the pineal and the gut, is often thought of as the "dark hormone" as its concentration in the circulation is high during darkness and low during light in diurnally- and nocturnally-active mammals in health. About-daily and about-yearly periodicities can thus be anticipated to characterize melatonin, matching the two major photic environmental cycles. Non-photic solar influences have also been observed, melatonin being depressed in association with magnetic storms. While less stable than the daily and yearly changes, non-photic solar dynamics also undergo various periodicities. Among them is an about 0.42-year (about 5-month or 154-day) cycle, reported by several physicists in relation to Zürich relative sunspot numbers and to solar flares. This putative signature of solar activity was found in the incidence pattern of sudden cardiac death in Minnesota, USA, among other geographic locations. A cycle with a period of about 0.42 year is here reported in data on circulating melatonin of 172 patients studied between Oct 1992 and Dec 1995 in Florence, Italy. Melatonin may mediate some of the Sun's effects upon the biosphere in certain frequency-windows such as a cis-half-year of about 5 months.

Parallels among the ``music scores'' of solar cycles, space weather and Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolláth, Zoltán; Oláh, Katalin; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia

2012-07-01

Solar variability and its effects on the physical variability of our (space) environment produces complex signals. In the indicators of solar activity at least four independent cyclic components can be identified, all of them with temporal variations in their timescales. Time-frequency distributions (see Kolláth & Oláh 2009) are perfect tools to disclose the ``music scores'' in these complex time series. Special features in the time-frequency distributions, like frequency splitting, or modulations on different timescales provide clues, which can reveal similar trends among different indices like sunspot numbers, interplanetary magnetic field strength in the Earth's neighborhood and climate data. On the pseudo-Wigner Distribution (PWD) the frequency splitting of all the three main components (the Gleissberg and Schwabe cycles, and an ~5.5 year signal originating from cycle asymmetry, i.e. the Waldmeier effect) can be identified as a ``bubble'' shaped structure after 1950. The same frequency splitting feature can also be found in the heliospheric magnetic field data and the microwave radio flux.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.

2012-12-01

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.

Test for planetary influences on solar activity. [tidal effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dingle, L. A.; Van Hoven, G.; Sturrock, P. A.

1973-01-01

A method due to Schuster is used to test the hypothesis that solar activity is influenced by tides raised in the sun's atmosphere by planets. We calculate the distribution in longitude of over 1000 flares occurring in a 6 1/2 yr segment of solar cycle 19, referring the longitude system in turn to the orbital positions of Jupiter and Venus. The resulting distributions show no evidence for a tidal effect.

Theoretical study of the effect of ionospheric return currents on the electron temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Bowline, M. D.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the high-altitude ionosphere is presently used to study the effects of field-aligned ionospheric return currents on auroral electron temperatures for different seasonal and solar cycle conditions, as well as for different upper boundary heat fluxes. The average, large scale, return current densities, which are a few microamps/sq m, are too small to affect auroral electron temperatures. The thermoelectric effect exhibits a pronounced solar cycle and seasonal dependence, and its heat transport corresponds to an upward flow of electron energy which can be either a source or sink of electron energy depending on altitude and geophysical conditions.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

1994-01-01

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Modification of mesospheric OH and O3 during a measured highly relativistic electron precipitation event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, R. A.; Jackman, C. H.; Backer, D. N.; Herrero, F. A.

1994-01-01

Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HRE's) can provide a major source of energy affecting mesospheric constituents and ionization. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced near the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness, and frequency of occurrence as the solar cycle declines. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other energy sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REP's) and auroral precipitation. The energy deposition data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska, in May 1990 during a modest HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Using a NASA two dimensional model, significant enhancement of OH and depletion of O3 at 75 +/- 10 km altitude from the measured radiation are found. Estimates of enhanced effects were made for more intense HRE events, as might be expected during solar minimum. By causing O3 depletion, the electron precipitation can also regulate the penetration of solar UV radiation, which could affect the thermal properties of the mesosphere.

Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C.

2017-04-01

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.

Studies of Sources on the Sun of Geo-effective Solar Events (P44)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. K.; Vhatkar, R. S.; Jadhav, K. D.; Rokade, M. V.

2006-11-01

sharma_ashokkumar@yahoo.com Source on the solar disc which causes the major solar proton events and large geomagnetic storms in the present solar cycle are studied in present paper. It is observed that all six major solar proton events studied were associated with CMEs that originated from West of East 30o and between ±30o Lat. on the solar disc. This is because Solar protons originating from western side of the solar disc follow the Archimedean spiral pattern of interplanetary magnetic fields and spiral down into the Earth’s vicinity.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.

2011-04-10

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

The South Atlantic Anomaly throughout the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingos, João; Jault, Dominique; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Mandea, Mioara

2017-09-01

The Sun-Earth's interaction is characterized by a highly dynamic electromagnetic environment, in which the magnetic field produced in the Earth's core plays an important role. One of the striking characteristics of the present geomagnetic field is denoted the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the total field intensity is unusually low and the flux of charged particles, trapped in the inner Van Allen radiation belts, is maximum. Here, we use, on one hand, a recent geomagnetic field model, CHAOS-6, and on the other hand, data provided by different platforms (satellites orbiting the Earth - POES NOAA for 1998-2014 and CALIPSO for 2006-2014). Evolution of the SAA particle flux can be seen as the result of two main effects, the secular variation of the Earth's core magnetic field and the modulation of the density of the inner radiation belts during the solar cycle, as a function of the L value that characterises the drift shell, where charged particles are trapped. To study the evolution of the particle flux anomaly, we rely on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of either POES particle flux or CALIOP dark noise. Analysed data are distributed on a geographical grid at satellite altitude, based on a L-shell reference frame constructed from the moving eccentric dipole. Changes in the main magnetic field are responsible for the observed westward drift. Three PCA modes account for the time evolution related to solar effects. Both the first and second modes have a good correlation with the thermospheric density, which varies in response to the solar cycle. The first mode represents the total intensity variation of the particle flux in the SAA, and the second the movement of the anomaly between different L-shells. The proposed analysis allows us to well recover the westward drift rate, as well as the latitudinal and longitudinal solar cycle oscillations, although the analysed data do not cover a complete (Hale) magnetic solar cycle (around 22 yr). Moreover, the developments made here would enable us to forecast the impact of the South Atlantic Anomaly on space weather. A model of the evolution of the eccentric dipole field (magnitude, offset and tilt) would suffice, together with a model for the solar cycle evolution.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal ( 0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Tao, J.; Zong, Q.; Li, G.; Salem, C. S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C.; Bale, S. D.

2016-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND/3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Quiet-time Suprathermal (~0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Salem, Chadi S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart D.

2016-03-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Drob, D. P.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase. These amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. The SCAE in this case extends to mid-latitudes.

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

Space Station Freedom Solar Array design development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Cindy

The SSF program's Electrical Power System supports a high-power bus with six solar-array wings in LEO; each solar array generates 30.8 kW at 161.1 V dc, with a deployed natural frequency of 0.1 Hz. Design challenges to the solar array, which must survive exposure for 15 years of operating life, include atomic oxygen, the thermal environment, and spacecraft propulsion plume-impingement loads. Tests thus far completed address cell UV-exposure effects, thermal cycling, and solar-cell deflection.

A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru

An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal (˜0.1 - 200 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linghua; Yang, Liu; Tao, Jiawei; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart

2017-04-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-200 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. The observed energy spectrum of both (beaming) strahl and (isotropic) halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV generally fits to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff, while the observed energy spectrum of nearly isotropic superhalo electrons at ˜20-200 keV generally fits to a power-law function, J ˜ E-β. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl density and halo density. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. For the superhalo population, the spectral index β ranges from ˜1.6 to ˜3.7 and the integrated density nsup ranges from 10-8 cm-3 to 10-5 cm-3, with no clear association with the sunspot number. In solar cycle 23 (24), the distribution of β has a broad maximum between 2.4 and 2.8 (2.0 and 2.4). All the strahl, halo and superhalo populations show no obvious correlation with the solar wind core population. These results reflect the nature of the generation of solar wind suprathermal electrons.

Solar power satellite—Life-cycle energy recovery considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, S.; Blumenberg, J.

1995-05-01

The construction, in-orbit installation and maintenance of a solar power satellite (SPS) will demand large amounts of energy. As a minimum requirement for an energy effective power satellite it is asked that this amount of energy be recovered. The energy effectiveness in this sense resulting in a positive net energy balance is a prerequisite for a cost-effective power satellite. This paper concentrates on life-cycle energy recovery instead of monetary aspects. The trade-offs between various power generation systems (different types of solar cells, solar dynamic), various construction and installation strategies (using terrestrial or extra-terrestrial resources) and the expected/required lifetime of the SPS are reviewed. The presented work is based on a 2-year study performed at the Technical University of Munich. The study showed that the main energy which is needed to make a solar power satellite a reality is required for the production of the solar power plant components (up to 65%), especially for the solar cell production. Whereas transport into orbit accounts in the order of 20% and the receiving station on Earth (rectenna) requires in the order of 15% of the total energy investment. The energetic amortization time, i.e. the time the SPS has to be operational to give back the amount of energy which was needed for its production, installation and operation, is in the order of two years.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

Actividad solar del ciclo 23. Predicción del máximo y fase decreciente utilizando redes neuronales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, M. A.; Ceccatto, H. A.; Piacentini, R. D.; García, P. J.

Different methods have been proposed in order to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycles, either as a consequence of the intrinsic importance of this event and because of its relation with solar storms and possible effects upon satellites, communication systems, etc. In this work, a neural network solar activity prediction is presented, measured through the sunspot number (SSN). The 16-units neural network, with a 12:3:1 architecture, was trained in a ``feed-forward" propagation way and learning by the so called ``back propagation rule". The annual mean SSN data in the 1700-1975 and 1987-1998 periods were used as the training set. The solar cycle 21 (1976-1986) was taken as the cross-validation data set. After performing the network training we obtained a prediction of the maximum annual mean for the current solar cycle 23, SSNmax= 135 ±17 at the year 2000, which is 13% smaller than the International Consensus Commitee's mean maximum prediction obtained through ``precursor techniques". On the other hand, our prediction is only about 4% smaller than the Consensus's neural network mean prediction. A ``multiple step" prediction technique was also performed and SSN annual mean predicted values for the near-maximum (from the present year 1999 to beyond the maximum) and the declining activity of solar cycle 23 are presented in this work. The sensibility of predictions is also tested. To do so, we changed the interval width and comparated our results with those of a previous neural network prediction and those of others authors using differents methods.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Franz, Heather

2005-01-01

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.

1982-01-01

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostfeld, Aminy E.; Gaikwad, Abhinav M.; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C.

2016-05-01

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm2 and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics.

PubMed

Ostfeld, Aminy E; Gaikwad, Abhinav M; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C

2016-05-17

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm(2) and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices.

High-performance flexible energy storage and harvesting system for wearable electronics

PubMed Central

Ostfeld, Aminy E.; Gaikwad, Abhinav M.; Khan, Yasser; Arias, Ana C.

2016-01-01

This paper reports on the design and operation of a flexible power source integrating a lithium ion battery and amorphous silicon solar module, optimized to supply power to a wearable health monitoring device. The battery consists of printed anode and cathode layers based on graphite and lithium cobalt oxide, respectively, on thin flexible current collectors. It displays energy density of 6.98 mWh/cm2 and demonstrates capacity retention of 90% at 3C discharge rate and ~99% under 100 charge/discharge cycles and 600 cycles of mechanical flexing. A solar module with appropriate voltage and dimensions is used to charge the battery under both full sun and indoor illumination conditions, and the addition of the solar module is shown to extend the battery lifetime between charging cycles while powering a load. Furthermore, we show that by selecting the appropriate load duty cycle, the average load current can be matched to the solar module current and the battery can be maintained at a constant state of charge. Finally, the battery is used to power a pulse oximeter, demonstrating its effectiveness as a power source for wearable medical devices. PMID:27184194

The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

The Formation of CIRs at Stream-Stream Interfaces and Resultant Geomagnetic Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.

2005-01-01

Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are regions of compressed plasma formed at the leading edges of corotating high-speed solar wind streams originating in coronal holes as they interact with the preceding slow solar wind. Although particularly prominent features of the solar wind during the declining and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, they may also be present at times of higher solar activity. We describe how CIRs are formed, and their geomagnetic effects, which principally result from brief southward interplanetary magnetic field excursions associated with Alfven waves. Seasonal and long-term variations in these effects are briefly discussed.

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Townsend, L. W.; Wilson, J. W.; Golightly, M. J.; Weyland, M.

1994-01-01

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.

Gallium arsenide solar array subsystem study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, F. Q.

1982-01-01

The effects on life cycle costs of a number of technology areas are examined for a gallium arsenide space solar array. Four specific configurations were addressed: (1) a 250 KWe LEO mission - planer array; (2) a 250 KWe LEO mission - with concentration; (3) a 50 KWe GEO mission planer array; (4) a 50 KWe GEO mission - with concentration. For each configuration, a baseline system conceptual design was developed and the life cycle costs estimated in detail. The baseline system requirements and design technologies were then varied and their relationships to life cycle costs quantified. For example, the thermal characteristics of the baseline design are determined by the array materials and masses. The thermal characteristics in turn determine configuration, performance, and hence life cycle costs.

Develop Silicone Encapsulation Systems for Terrestrial Silicon Solar Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The results of a study for Task 3 of the Low Cost Solar Array Project, directed toward the development of a cost effective encapsulation system for photovoltaic modules using silicon based materials, are reported. Results of the following are discussed: (1) weather-ometer stressing vs. weathering history of silicon and silicon modified materials; (2) humidity/temperature cycling exposure; (3) exposure at high humidity/high temperature; (4) outdoor exposure stress; (5) thermal cycling stress; and (6) UV screening agents. The plans for the next quarter are outlined.

On the occurrence and strength of multi-frequency multi-GNSS Ionospheric Scintillations in Indian sector during declining phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasu, V. K. D.; Dashora, N.; Prasad, D. S. V. V. D.; Niranjan, K.; Gopi Krishna, S.

2018-04-01

This study presents unique perspectives of occurrence and strength of low latitude ionospheric scintillations on multiple signals of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and its frequency dependence using continuous observation records of 780 nights. A robust comparative analysis is performed using scintillation index, S4 and its variation during pre-midnight and post-midnight duration from a GNSS receiver located at Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E), India, covering period from July 2014 to August 2016. The results, generally exhibit the impact of declining phase of solar cycle 24 on occurrence and strength of scintillations, which, however, is evidently different over different frequencies transmitted from different GNSS systems. A deeper quantitative analysis uniquely reveals that apart from the solar cycle and seasonal effects, the number of visible satellites of a selected GNSS markedly affect the occurrence and also the strength. Processing scheme of adopting 6 hourly time windows of pre-midnight and post-midnight brought a novel result that the strength and occurrence of strong scintillations decrease with declining solar activity during pre-midnight hours but remarkably increase for moderate and weak scintillations during post-midnight. The physical processes that dominate the post-midnight equatorial ionosphere are invoked to explain such variations that are special during declining solar activity. Finally, inter-GNSS signal analysis in terms of the effect of strong, moderate and weak scintillations is presented with due consideration of number of satellite passes affected and frequency dependence of mean S4. The quantitative results of this study emphasize for the first time effect of low latitude scintillation on GNSS signals in Indian zone under changing background solar and seasonal conditions.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

PubMed

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-06-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cycle for Science: An informal outreach program connecting K-12 students with renewable energy and physics through miniature 3D-printed, solar-powered bicycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods-Robinson, R.; Case, E.

2017-12-01

Engaging communities with renewable energy is key to fighting climate change. Cycle for Science, an innovative STEM outreach organization, has reached more than 3,000 K-12 students across the United States by bringing early-career female scientists into classrooms to teach basic physics and solar energy engineering through hands-on, DIY science activities. We designed a fleet of miniature, 3D-printed, solar-powered bicycles called "Sol Cycles" to use as teaching tools. Traveling by bicycle, Cycle for Science has brought them to rural and urban communities across the U.S. in two major efforts so far: one traversing the country (2015), and one through central California (2017). The program involves (1) introducing the scientists and why they value science, (2) running a skit to demonstrate how electrons and photons interact inside the solar panel, (3) assembling the Sol Cycles, (4) taking students outdoors to test the effects of variables (e.g. light intensity) on the Sol Cycles' movement, (5) and debriefing about the importance of renewable energy. In addition to physics and solar energy, the lessons teach the scientific process, provide tactile engagement with science, and introduce a platform to engage students with climate change impacts. By cycling to classrooms, we provide positive examples of low-impact transportation and a unique avenue for discussing climate action. It was important that this program extend beyond the trips, so the lesson and Sol Cycle design are open source to encourage teachers and students to play, change and improve the design, as well as incorporate new exercises (e.g. could you power the bicycle by wind?). Additionally, it has been permanently added to the XRaise Lending Library at Cornell University, so teachers across the world can implement the lesson. By sharing our project at AGU, we aim to connect with other scientists, educators, and concerned citizens about how to continue to bring renewable energy lessons into classrooms.

Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

Observed Seasonal to Decadal-Scale Responses in Mesospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis

2010-01-01

The 14-yr (1991-2005) time series of mesospheric water vapor from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques for their6 seasonal and longer-period terms from 45S to 45N. The distribution of annual average water vapor shows a decrease from a maximum of 6.5 ppmv at 0.2 hPa to about 3.2 ppmv at 0.01 hPa, in accord with the effects of the photolysis of water vapor due to the Lyman-flux. The distribution of the semi-annual cycle amplitudes is nearly hemispherically symmetric at the low latitudes, while that of the annual cycles show larger amplitudes in the northern hemisphere. The diagnosed 11-yr, or solar cycle, max minus min, water vapor values are of the order of several percent at 0.2 hPa to about 23% at 0.01 hPa. The solar cycle terms have larger values in the northern than in the southern hemisphere, particularly in the middle mesosphere, and the associated linear trend terms are anomalously large in the same region. Those anomalies are due, at least in part, to the fact that the amplitudes of the seasonal cycles were varying at northern mid latitudes during 1991-2005, while the corresponding seasonal terms of the MLR model do not allow for that possibility. Although the 11-yr variation in water vapor is essentially hemispherically-symmetric and anti-phased with the solar cycle flux near 0.01 hPa, the concurrent temperature variations produce slightly colder conditions at the northern high latitudes at solar minimum. It is concluded that this temperature difference is most likely the reason for the greater occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds at the northern versus the southern high latitudes at solar minimum during the HALOE time period.

Solar Cycle Fine Structure and Surface Rotation from Ca II K-Line Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scargle, Jeff; Keil, Steve; Worden, Pete

2011-10-01

Analysis of three and a half decades of data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program yields evidence for four components to the variation: (a) the solar cycle, with considerable fine structure and a quasi-periodicity of 122.4 days; (b) a stochastic process, faster than (a) and largely independent of it, (c) a quasi-periodic signal due to rotational modulation, and of course (d) observational errors (shown to be quite small). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis is especially useful for extracting information about differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the connection between its behavior and fine structure of the solar cycle on approximately one-year time scales. These results further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (b) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a "1/f" random process. A time-dependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (a), but not in the stochastic process (b). The data can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/data/cak_mon.html, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.

2016-12-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

PubMed

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T.

1980-01-01

Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types.

Association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections accompanied by Deca-Hectometric type II radio burst for two solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharayat, Hema; Prasad, Lalan; Pant, Sumit

2018-05-01

The aim of present study is to find the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio burst for the period 1997-2014 (solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of solar cycle 24). We have used a statistical analysis and found that 10-20∘ latitudinal belt of northern region and 80-90∘ longitudinal belts of western region of the sun are more effective for flare-CME accompanied by DH type II radio burst events. M-class flares (52%) are in good association with the CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst. Further, we have calculated the flare position and found that most frequent flare site is at the center of the CME span. However, the occurrence probability of all flares is maximum outside the CME span. X-class flare associated CMEs have maximum speed than that of M, C, and B-class flare associated CMEs. We have also found a good correlation between flare position and central position angle of CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst.

QUASI-BIENNIAL MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laurenza, M.; Storini, M.; Vecchio, A.

2012-04-20

The time variability of the cosmic-ray (CR) intensity at three different rigidities has been analyzed through the empirical mode decomposition technique for the period 1964-2004. Apart from the {approx}11 yr cycle, quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) have been detected as a prominent scale of variability in CR data, as well as in the heliomagnetic field magnitude at 1 AU and in the sunspot area. The superposition of the {approx}11 yr and QBO contributions reproduces the general features of the CR modulation, such as most of the step-like decreases and the Gnevyshev Gap phenomenon. A significant correlation has also been found between QBOsmore » of the heliospheric magnetic field and the CR intensity during even solar activity cycles, suggesting that the former are responsible for step-like decreases in CR modulation, probably dominated by the particle diffusion/convection in such periods. In contrast, during odd-numbered cycles, no significant correlation is found. This could be explained with an enhanced drift effect also during the solar maximum or a greater influence of merged interaction regions at great heliocentric distances during odd cycles. Moreover, the QBOs of CR data are delayed with respect to sunspot activity, the lag being shorter for A > 0 periods of even cycles ({approx}1-4 months) than for A < 0 periods of odd cycles ({approx}7-9 months); we suggest that solar QBOs also affect the recovery of the CR intensity after the solar activity maximum.« less

Scientific Analysis of Data for the ISTP/SOLARMAX Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lazarus, Alan J.

2001-01-01

This Grant supplemented our work on data analysis from the Wind spacecraft which was one of the ISTRIA fleet of spacecraft. It was targeted at observations related to the time of solar maximum in 2000. The work we proposed to do under this grant included comparison of solar wind parameters obtained from different spacecraft in order to establish correlation lengths appropriate to the solar wind and also to compare parameters to explore solar cycle effects.

Site dependent factors affecting the economic feasibility of solar powered absorption cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartlett, J. C.

1978-01-01

A procedure was developed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of combining an absorption cycle chiller with a solar energy system. A basic assumption of the procedure is that a solar energy system exists for meeting the heating load of the building, and that the building must be cooled. The decision to be made is to either cool the building with a conventional vapor compression cycle chiller or to use the existing solar energy system to provide a heat input to the absorption chiller. Two methods of meeting the cooling load not supplied by solar energy were considered. In the first method, heat is supplied to the absorption chiller by a boiler using fossil fuel. In the second method, the load not met by solar energy is net by a conventional vapor compression chiller. In addition, the procedure can consider waste heat as another form of auxiliary energy. Commercial applications of solar cooling with an absorption chiller were found to be more cost effective than the residential applications. In general, it was found that the larger the chiller, the more economically feasible it would be. Also, it was found that a conventional vapor compression chiller is a viable alternative for the auxiliary cooling source, especially for the larger chillers. The results of the analysis gives a relative rating of the sites considered as to their economic feasibility of solar cooling.

QUIET-TIME SUPRATHERMAL (∼0.1–1.5 keV) ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR WIND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang

2016-03-20

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (∼0.1–1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ∼0.1–1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature T{sub eff}. We also calculate the number density n and average energy E{sub avg} of strahl andmore » halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ∼0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and T{sub eff} for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity)« less

Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, Ricky

2018-06-01

The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5–9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude ~12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun’s are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted to a relatively narrow range of rotation rates.

Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, Ricky

2017-04-01

The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5-9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude 12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun's are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted to a relatively narrow range of rotation rates.

Statistical analysis of midlatitude spread F using multi-station digisonde observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaneja, P.; Earle, G. D.; Bullett, T. W.

2018-01-01

A comprehensive statistical study of midlatitude spread F (MSF) is presented for five midlatitude stations in the North American sector. These stations include Ramey AFB, Puerto Rico (18.5°N, 67.1°W, -14° declination angle), Wallops Island, Virginia (37.95°N, 75.5°W, -11° declination angle), Dyess, Texas (32.4°N, 99.8°W, 6.9° declination angle), Boulder, Colorado (40°N, 105.3°W, 10° declination angle), and Vandenberg AFB, California (34.8°N, 120.5°W, 13° declination angle). Pattern recognition algorithms are used to determine the presence of both range and frequency spread F. Data from 1996 to 2011 are analyzed, covering all of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Variations with respect to season and solar activity are presented, including the effects of the extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

Terminator 2020: Get Ready for the "Event" of The Next Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J.; Fan, Y.; Rempel, M.; Dikpati, M.

2017-12-01

The abrupt end of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 at the Sun's equator are observed with instruments from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These events are remarkable in that they rapidly trigger the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next solar cycle at mid-latitudes. The triggered onset of new cycle flux emergence leads to blossoming of the new cycle shortly thereafter. Using small-scale tracers of magnetic solar activity we examine the timing of the cycle ``termination points'' in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is less than one solar rotation, and possibly as little as a eight days. This very short transition time implies that the mean magnetic field present in the Sun's convection zone is approximately 80 kG. This value may be considerably larger than conventional explorations estimate and therefore, have a significant dynamical impact on the physical appearance of solar activity, and considerably impacting our ability to perform first-principles numerical simulations of the same. Should solar cycle 24 [and 25] continue in their progression we anticipate that a termination event of this type should occur in the 2020 timeframe. PSP will have a front row seat to observe this systemic flip in solar magnetism and the induced changes in our star's radiative and partiuculate output. Such observations may prove to be critical in assessing the Sun's ability to force short term evolution in the Earth's atmosphere.

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

Can we identify effects from the 11 year solar cycle in AIM PMC Data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siskind, D. E.; Stevens, M. H.; Hervig, M. E.; Randall, C. E.

2012-12-01

One of the primary objectives of the AIM extended mission is to understand the solar cycle variation of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs). Complicating this problem have been two unexpected phenomena. First, it has become clear that PMCs vary greatly in response to meteorological variability propagating upwards from the stratosphere or teleconnecting from the opposite (winter) hemisphere. Second, the first 4 years of the AIM mission (2007-2010) corresponded to historically very low solar activity. Recently, solar activity has increased modestly; however, the problem remains of pulling out a weak signal (solar) against a noisy background (dynamics). There are two ways to reduce the geophysical noise. First, we note that due to the dynamically active Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, the effects of meteorological teleconnections are greatest on Southern Hemisphere PMCs. By focusing on Northern Hemisphere PMCs, we get less dynamical variability. Second, it has been shown that by correlating PMC properties with stratospheric winter temperatures, a functional relationship between PMCs and dynamics can be established. In principle, deviations from this functional relationship could be interpreted as due to external forcing, i.e. from solar variability. Expectations are that clouds should decrease for higher levels of solar forcing. Surprisingly however, in 2011, the first year with higher solar activity, the SOFIE instrument on AIM saw more clouds in July than ever. We explore possible reasons for this anomaly, including the possibility of an enhancement in H2O from the launch of STS135 on July 8th. To date, 2012 also shows moderately higher solar activity, but without the contaminating effects of shuttle exhaust. We will evaluate whether PMCs were affected by solar activity in 2012. Acknowledgements: This work was sponsored by the NASA AIM Small Explorer program.

Solar Wind Plasma Flows and Space Weather Aspects Recent Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaushik, Sonia; Kaushik, Subhash Chandra

2016-07-01

Solar transients are responsible for initiating short - term and long - term variations in earth's magnetosphere. These variations are termed as geomagnetic disturbances, and driven by the interaction of solar wind features with the geo-magnetosphere. The strength of this modulation process depends upon the magnitude and orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and solar wind parameters. These interplanetary transients are large scale structures containing plasma and magnetic field expelled from the transient active regions of solar atmosphere. As they come to interplanetary medium the interplanetary magnetic field drape around them. This field line draping was thought as possible cause of the characteristic eastward deflection and giving rise to geomagnetic activities as well as a prime factor in producing the modulation effects in the near Earth environment. The Solar cycle 23 has exhibited the unique extended minima and peculiar effects in the geomagnetosphere. Selecting such transients, occurred during this interval, an attempt has been made to determine quantitative relationships of these transients with solar/ interplanetary and Geophysical Parameters. In this work we used hourly values of IMF data obtained from the NSSD Center. The analysis mainly based on looking into the effects of these transients on earth's magnetic field. The high-resolution data IMF Bz and solar wind data obtained from WDC-A, through its omniweb, available during the selected period. Dst and Ap obtained from WDC-Kyoto are taken as indicator of geomagnetic activities. It is found that Dst index, solar wind velocity, proton temperature and the Bz component of magnetic field have higher values and increase just before the occurrence of these events. Larger and varying magnetic field mainly responsible for producing the short-term changes in geomagnetic intensity are observed during these events associated with coronal holes.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

Long-term-average, solar cycle, and seasonal response of magnetospheric energetic electrons to the solar wind speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vassiliadis, D.; Klimas, A. J.; Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Weigel, R. S.

2002-11-01

Among the interplanetary activity parameters the solar wind speed is the one best correlated with the energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere. We examine the radial and temporal characteristics of the 2-6 MeV electron response, approximating it in this paper with linear filters. The filter response is parameterized by the time delay (τ), measured from the time of solar wind impact, and the L shell (L). We examine solar cycle and seasonal effects using an 8-year-long database of Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX)/ Proton Electron Telescope (PET) measurements at the radial range L = 1.1-10. The main peak P1 of the long-term-average response is at (τ, L) = (2, 5.3) and has a simultaneous response over a wide range of radial distances, ΔL = 5. The duration of the response after the peak is inversely proportional to the L shell. The central part of the inner magnetosphere (L = 3.7-5.75) has a much more prolonged response (>10 days) than other parts. Prior to the main response, P1, a brief response, P0, of typically lower amplitude appears at (τ, L) = (0, 3), probably as a quasi-adiabatic response to the compression of the magnetosphere by the solar wind pressure. Over the solar cycle the variation in solar wind input results in a systematic change of the position, amplitude, radial extent, and duration of the two peaks: during solar wind minimum the quasi-adiabatic peak disappears, and the radial size of the responding region decreases; both are responses to low-density, high-speed streams. During solar minimum, the duration is at least 3 days (30%) longer than average, probably due to the sustained solar wind input. Systematic variations appear also as a function of season due to several magnetic and fluid effects. During equinoxes the coupling is stronger, and the duration is longer (by at least 2 days) compared to solstices. Between the two equinoxes the fall response has a significantly higher amplitude and longer duration than the spring equinox response. This is at least partly due to the higher GSE By component during the observation time, which acts to increase the effective GSM Bz component according to the Russell-McPherron effect. The seasonal modulation of the response is consistent with the variation in the fluxes themselves [, 1999]. The modulation is discussed in terms of the equinoctial and axial hypotheses [, 1970; , 1973; , 2000].

Interactions of Dust Grains with Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Cycle Variations of the F-Coronal Brightness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragot, B. R.; Kahler, S. W.

2003-01-01

The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.

Contact integrity testing of stress-tested silicon terrestrial solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, J. L.; Lathrop, J. W.; Witter, G. W.

1980-01-01

A test procedure was developed and applied to terrestrial silicon solar cells in order to determine the effect of accelerated environmental and time-temperature aging on metal contact integrity. Quantities of cells of four different manufacturers were given the contact integrity test after being subjected to accelerated stress tests that included forward bias-temperature, thermal cycle and thermal shock, power cycle, and bias-temperature humidity tests at two temperature-humidity levels. Significant effects due to certain stress tests were found for some cell types. It is concluded that cells fabricated using plated nickel/solder metallization showed significantly more serious contact integrity degradation than silver-metallized cells.

Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.

2017-12-01

Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

1988-01-01

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Study of Ionospheric Indexes T and MF2 related to R12 for Solar Cycles 19-21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, Lucia

2013-04-01

Modern worldwide communications are mainly based on satellite systems, remote communication networks, and advanced technologies. The most important space weather "meteorological" events produce negative effects on signal transmissions. Magnetic storm conditions that follow coronal mass ejections are particularly of great importance for radio communication at HF frequencies (3-30 MHz range), because the Ionization increase (or decrease), significantly over (or below), the Average Values. Nowadays new technologies make possible to establish Geophysical Observatories and monitor the sun almost in real time giving information about geomagnetic indices. Space Weather programs have interesting software predictions of foF2 producing maps and plots, every some minutes. The Average Values of the ionospheric parameters mainly depend on the position, hour, season and the phase of the 11-year cycle of the solar activity. Around 1990´s several ionospheric indexes were suggested to better predict the state of the foF2 monthly media, as: IF2, G, T and MF2, based on foF2 data from different latitude ionospheric observatories. They really show better seasonal changes than monthly solar indexes of solar flux F10.7 or the international sunspot numbers Ri. The main purpose of this paper is to present an analogic model for the ionospheric index MF2, to establish the average long term predictions of this index. Changes of phase from one cycle to the other of one component of the model is found to fit the data. The usefulness of this model could be the prediction of the ionospheric normal conditions for one entire solar cycle having just the prediction of the maximum of the next smooth sunspot number R12. In this presentation, comparisons of the Australian T index and and the Mikhailov MF2 index show an hysteresis variation with the solar monthly index Ri, such dependence is quite well represented by a polynomial fit of degree 6 for rising and decaying fases for solar cycles 19, 20 and 21.

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (n-11026) on days of zero geomagnetic activity (GMA) and the following week: differences at months of maximal and minimal solar activity (SA) in solar cycles 23 and 24.

PubMed

Stoupel, Eliyahu; Tamoshiunas, Abdonas; Radishauskas, Richardas; Bernotiene, Gailute; Abramson, Evgeny; Israelevich, Peter

2012-01-01

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is one of most common cardiovascular pathologies in the industrial world. In addition to known risk factors, environmental physical activity factors such as solar activity (SA), geomagnetic activity (GMA), and cosmic ray activity (CRA) could be also involved in the timing of AMI. The aim of this study was to study AMI admissions at days of zero GMA, accompanied by high CRA, and the following week in the higher and lowest parts of solar cycles 23 and 24. Patients admitted for AMI (n=11,026, 59.5% men) in years 2000-2009 at the Department of Cardiology of Lithuanian University of Medical Sciences were studied for all periods and separately for the higher part of the 11-year solar activity in cycles 23 and 24 (2000-2007) and its lowest part (2008-2009). Admissions at day of zero GMA as well as 1, 2, 6, and 7 days after zero-GMA day were compared. At high SA, zero-GMA days were rare and isolated (36 in years 2000-2007). They have been followed by significant increase in admissions on the following days. In the two lowest years of SA 2008-2009, there were 57 days of zero GMA, many of which were consecutive and in groups. For the whole solar cycle, there was a more gradual increase in AMI from 1 to 2 days after zero-GMA day, and there were significantly higher AMI admissions at 6 days after the first zero-GMA day (p=0.018). Zero-GMA/high-neutron activity is followed by increase in AMI admissions at the days that follow. The effects are different at high and low parts of the 11-year solar cycle.

Global correlation between surface heat fluxes and insolation in the 11-year solar cycle: The latitudinal effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2014-12-01

Because of the small amplitude of insolation variations (1365.2-1366.6 W m-2 or 0.1%) from the 11-year solar cycle minimum to the cycle maximum and the structural complexity of the climatic dynamics, it is difficult to directly observe a solar signal in the surface temperature. The main difficulty is reduced to two factors: (1) a delay in the temperature response to external action due to thermal inertia, and (2) powerful internal fluctuations of the climatic dynamics suppressing the solar-driven component. In this work we take into account the first factor, solving the inverse problem of thermal conductivity in order to calculate the vertical heat flux from the measured temperature near the Earth's surface. The main model parameter—apparent thermal inertia—is calculated from the local seasonal extremums of temperature and albedo. We level the second factor by averaging mean annual heat fluxes in a latitudinal belt. The obtained mean heat fluxes significantly correlate with a difference between the insolation and optical depth of volcanic aerosol in the atmosphere, converted into a hindered heat flux. The calculated correlation smoothly increases with increasing latitude to 0.4-0.6, and the revealed latitudinal dependence is explained by the known effect of polar amplification.

Temporal variations in the position of the heliospheric equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.

2008-08-01

It is shown that the centroid of the heliospheric equator undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations. During the minimum of the 11-year cycle, the centroid shifts southwards (the so-called bashful-ballerina effect). The direction of the shift reverses during the solar maximum. The solar quadrupole is responsible for this effect. The shift is compared with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet.

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.

Performance comparison of different thermodynamic cycles for an innovative central receiver solar power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes-Belmonte, Miguel A.; Sebastián, Andrés; González-Aguilar, José; Romero, Manuel

2017-06-01

The potential of using different thermodynamic cycles coupled to a solar tower central receiver that uses a novel heat transfer fluid is analyzed. The new fluid, named as DPS, is a dense suspension of solid particles aerated through a tubular receiver used to convert concentrated solar energy into thermal power. This novel fluid allows reaching high temperatures at the solar receiver what opens a wide range of possibilities for power cycle selection. This work has been focused into the assessment of power plant performance using conventional, but optimized cycles but also novel thermodynamic concepts. Cases studied are ranging from subcritical steam Rankine cycle; open regenerative Brayton air configurations at medium and high temperature; combined cycle; closed regenerative Brayton helium scheme and closed recompression supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle. Power cycle diagrams and working conditions for design point are compared amongst the studied cases for a common reference thermal power of 57 MWth reaching the central cavity receiver. It has been found that Brayton air cycle working at high temperature or using supercritical carbon dioxide are the most promising solutions in terms of efficiency conversion for the power block of future generation by means of concentrated solar power plants.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C., E-mail: xiejinglan@ynao.ac.cn

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle lengthmore » for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.« less

ACTIVITY ANALYSES FOR SOLAR-TYPE STARS OBSERVED WITH KEPLER. I. PROXIES OF MAGNETIC ACTIVITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Yun, Duo, E-mail: hehan@nao.cas.cn

2015-11-15

Light curves of solar-type stars often show gradual fluctuations due to rotational modulation by magnetic features (starspots and faculae) on stellar surfaces. Two quantitative measures of modulated light curves are employed as the proxies of magnetic activity for solar-type stars observed with Kepler telescope. The first is named autocorrelation index i{sub AC}, which describes the degree of periodicity of the light curve; the second is the effective fluctuation range of the light curve R{sub eff}, which reflects the depth of rotational modulation. The two measures are complementary and depict different aspects of magnetic activities on solar-type stars. By using themore » two proxies i{sub AC} and R{sub eff}, we analyzed activity properties of two carefully selected solar-type stars observed with Kepler (Kepler ID: 9766237 and 10864581), which have distinct rotational periods (14.7 versus 6.0 days). We also applied the two measures to the Sun for a comparative study. The result shows that both the measures can reveal cyclic activity variations (referred to as i{sub AC}-cycle and R{sub eff}-cycle) on the two Kepler stars and the Sun. For the Kepler star with the faster rotation rate, i{sub AC}-cycle and R{sub eff}-cycle are in the same phase, while for the Sun (slower rotator), they are in the opposite phase. By comparing the solar light curve with simultaneous photospheric magnetograms, it is identified that the magnetic feature that causes the periodic light curve during solar minima is the faculae of the enhanced network region, which can also be a candidate of magnetic features that dominate the periodic light curves on the two Kepler stars.« less

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

2017-06-01

CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different temperatures, enabling low temperature heat recovery from the receiver and Gas Turbine exhaust gasses.

Heliophysics at total solar eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, Jay M.

2017-08-01

Observations during total solar eclipses have revealed many secrets about the solar corona, from its discovery in the 17th century to the measurement of its million-kelvin temperature in the 19th and 20th centuries, to details about its dynamics and its role in the solar-activity cycle in the 21st century. Today's heliophysicists benefit from continued instrumental and theoretical advances, but a solar eclipse still provides a unique occasion to study coronal science. In fact, the region of the corona best observed from the ground at total solar eclipses is not available for view from any space coronagraphs. In addition, eclipse views boast of much higher quality than those obtained with ground-based coronagraphs. On 21 August 2017, the first total solar eclipse visible solely from what is now United States territory since long before George Washington's presidency will occur. This event, which will cross coast-to-coast for the first time in 99 years, will provide an opportunity not only for massive expeditions with state-of-the-art ground-based equipment, but also for observations from aloft in aeroplanes and balloons. This set of eclipse observations will again complement space observations, this time near the minimum of the solar activity cycle. This review explores the past decade of solar eclipse studies, including advances in our understanding of the corona and its coronal mass ejections as well as terrestrial effects. We also discuss some additional bonus effects of eclipse observations, such as recreating the original verification of the general theory of relativity.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

2001-08-01

At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

Climate variability related to the 11 year solar cycle as represented in different spectral solar irradiance reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Misios, Stergios; Matthes, Katja; Langematz, Ulrike; Tourpali, Kleareti

2016-04-01

Advanced spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstructions differ significantly from each other in terms of the mean solar spectrum, that is the spectral distribution of energy, and solar cycle variability. Largest uncertainties - relative to mean irradiance - are found for the ultraviolet range of the spectrum, a spectral region highly important for radiative heating and chemistry in the stratosphere and troposphere. This study systematically analyzes the effects of employing different SSI reconstructions in long-term (40 years) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations to estimate related uncertainties of the atmospheric response. These analyses are highly relevant for the next round of CCM studies as well as climate models within the CMIP6 exercise. The simulations are conducted by means of two state-of-the-art CCMs - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - run in "atmosphere-only"-mode. These models are quite different with respect to the complexity of the implemented radiation and chemistry schemes. CESM1(WACCM) features a chemistry module with considerably higher spectral resolution of the photolysis scheme while EMAC employs a radiation code with notably higher spectral resolution. For all simulations, concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, as well as observed sea surface temperatures (SST) are set to average conditions representative for the year 2000 (for SSTs: mean of decade centered over year 2000) to exclude anthropogenic influences and differences due to variable SST forcing. Only the SSI forcing differs for the various simulations. Four different forcing datasets are used: NRLSSI1 (used as a reference in all previous climate modeling intercomparisons, i.e. CMIP5, CCMVal, CCMI), NRLSSI2, SATIRE-S, and the SSI forcing dataset recommended for the CMIP6 exercise. For each dataset, a solar maximum and minimum timeslice is integrated, respectively. The results of these simulations - eight in total - are compared to each other with respect to their shortwave heating rate differences (additionally collated with line-by-line calculations using libradtran), differences in the photolysis rates, as well as atmospheric circulation features (temperature, zonal wind, geopotential height, etc.). It is shown that atmospheric responses to the different SSI datasets differ significantly from each other. This is a result from direct radiative effects as well as indirect effects induced by ozone feedbacks. Differences originating from using different SSI datasets for the same level of solar activity are in the same order of magnitude as those associated with the 11 year solar cycle within a specific dataset. However, the climate signals related to the solar cycle are quite comparable across datasets.

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Heliocentric distance and temporal dependence of the interplanetary density-magnetic field magnitude correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, D. A.

1990-01-01

The Helios, IMP 8, ISEE 3, ad Voyager 2 spacecraft are used to examine the solar cycle and heliocentric distance dependence of the correlation between density n and magnetic field magnitude B in the solar wind. Previous work had suggested that this correlation becomes progressively more negative with heliocentric distance out to 9.5 AU. Here it is shown that this evolution is not a solar cycle effect, and that the correlations become even more strongly negative at heliocentric distance larger than 9.5 AU. There is considerable variability in the distributions of the correlations at a given heliocentric distance, but this is not simply related to the solar cycle. Examination of the evolution of correlations between density and speed suggest that most of the structures responsible for evolution in the anticorrelation between n and B are not slow-mode waves, but rather pressure balance structures. The latter consist of both coherent structures such as tangential discontinuities and the more generally pervasive 'pseudosound' which may include the coherent structures as a subset.

The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landi, E.; Testa, P.

2014-05-20

Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. Wemore » measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

15 years of VLT/UVES OH intensities and temperatures in comparison with TIMED/SABER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noll, Stefan; Kimeswenger, Stefan; Proxauf, Bastian; Unterguggenberger, Stefanie; Kausch, Wolfgang; Jones, Amy M.

2017-10-01

The high-resolution echelle spectrograph UVES of the Very Large Telescope at Cerro Paranal in Chile has been regularly operated since April 2000. Thus, UVES archival data originally taken for astronomical projects but also including sky emission can be used to study airglow variations on a time scale longer than a solar cycle. Focusing on OH emission and observations until March 2015, we considered about 3000 high-quality spectra from two instrumental set-ups centred on 760 and 860 nm, which cover about 380 nm each. These data allowed us to measure line intensities for several OH bands in order to derive band intensities and rotational temperatures for different upper vibrational levels as a function of solar activity and observing date. The results were compared with those derived from emission and temperature profile data of the radiometer SABER on the TIMED satellite taken in the Cerro Paranal area between 2002 and 2015. In agreement with the SABER data, the long-term variations in OH intensity and temperature derived from the UVES data are dominated by the solar cycle, whereas secular trends appear to be negligible. Combining the UVES and SABER results, the solar cycle effects for the OH intensity and temperature are about 12-17% and 4-5 K per 100 sfu and do not significantly depend on the selected OH band. The data also reveal that variations of the effective OH emission layer height and air density can cause significant changes in the OH rotational temperatures due to a varying ratio of OH thermalising collisions by air molecules and OH radiation, deactivation, and destruction processes which impede the rotational relaxation. However, this effect appears to be of minor importance for the explanation of the rotational temperature variations related to the solar activity cycle, which causes only small changes in the OH emission profile.

Helioseismic Observations of Two Solar Cycles and Constraints on Dynamo Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, Alexander

2018-01-01

Helioseismology data from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017 for almost two solar cycles, provide a unique opportunity to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and link these variations to the current dynamo models and simulations. The solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splitting of medium-degree p- and f-modes, as well as helioseismic inversions have been used to analyze variations of the differential rotation (“torsional oscillations”) and the global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the synoptic surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and evolution of the solar cycles, 23 and 24. The observational results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the dynamics of the tachocline and near-surface shear layer, and also may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles and detect the onset of the next cycle.

Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.

2016-12-01

The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results.

Computer Program for Assessing the Economic Feasibility of Solar Energy for Single Family Residences and Light Commercial Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forney, J. A.; Walker, D.; Lanier, M.

1979-01-01

Computer program, SHCOST, was used to perform economic analyses of operational test sites. The program allows consideration of the economic parameters which are important to the solar system user. A life cycle cost and cash flow comparison is made between a solar heating system and a conventional system. The program assists in sizing the solar heating system. A sensitivity study and plot capability allow the user to select the most cost effective system configuration.

Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

2014-12-01

The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

2017-06-01

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2-NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m-2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of -0.04 W m-2. In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of -0.35 K day-1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (-1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (-3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day-1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ˜ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry-climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay

2011-01-01

After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery.

Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

1978-01-01

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

2003-01-01

The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance.

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Simulation of the synergistic low Earth orbit effects of vacuum thermal cycling, vacuum UV radiation, and atomic oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dever, Joyce A.; Degroh, Kim K.; Stidham, Curtis R.; Stueber, Thomas J.; Dever, Therese M.; Rodriguez, Elvin; Terlep, Judith A.

1992-01-01

In order to assess the low Earth orbit (LEO) durability of candidate space materials, it is necessary to use ground laboratory facilities which provide LEO environmental effects. A facility combining vacuum thermal cycling and vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation has been designed and constructed at NASA Lewis Research Center for this purpose. This facility can also be operated without the VUV lamps. An additional facility can be used to provide VUV exposure only. By utilizing these facilities, followed by atomic oxygen exposure in an RF plasma asher, the effects of the individual vacuum thermal cycling and VUV environments can be compared to the effect of the combined vacuum thermal cycling/VUV environment on the atomic oxygen durability of materials. The synergistic effects of simulated LEO environmental conditions on materials were evaluated by first exposing materials to vacuum thermal cycling, VUV, and vacuum thermal cycling/VUV environments followed by exposure to atomic oxygen in an RP plasma asher. Candidate space power materials such as atomic oxygen protected polyimides and solar concentrator mirrors were evaluated using these facilities. Characteristics of the Vacuum Thermal Cycling/VUV Exposure Facility which simulates the temperature sequences and solar ultraviolet radiation exposure that would be experienced by a spacecraft surface in LEO are discussed. Results of durability evaluations of some candidate space power materials to the simulated LEO environmental conditions will also be discussed. Such results have indicated that for some materials, atomic oxygen durability is affected by previous exposure to thermal cycling and/or VUV exposure.

Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky.

PubMed

Gumarova, L; Cornélissen, G; Hillman, D; Halberg, F

2013-10-01

In the incidence patterns of cholera, diphtheria and croup during the past when they were of epidemic proportions, we document a set of cycles (periods), one of which was reported and discussed by A. L. Chizhevsky in the same data with emphasis on the mirroring in human disease of the ~11-year sunspot cycle. The data in this study are based on Chizhevsky’s book The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms and on records from the World Health Organization. For meta-analysis, we used the extended linear and nonlinear cosinor. We found a geographically selective assortment of various cycles characterizing the epidemiology of infections, which is the documented novel topic of this paper, complementing the earlier finding in the 21st century or shortly before, of a geographically selective assortment of cycles characterizing human sudden cardiac death. Solar effects, if any, interact with geophysical processes in contributing to this assortment.

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

1989-01-01

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.

2003-04-01

On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.

Responses of Solar Irradiance and the Ionosphere to an Intense Activity Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Wan, Weixing

2018-03-01

Solar rotation (SR) variation dominates solar extremely ultraviolet (EUV) changes on the timescale of days. The F10.7 index is usually used as an indicator for solar EUV. The SR variation of F10.7 significantly enhanced during the 2008th-2009th Carrington rotations (CRs) owing to an intense active region; F10.7 increased about 180 units during that SR period. That was the most prominent SR variation of F10.7 during solar cycle 23. In this paper, global electron content (GEC) is used to investigate ionospheric response to that strong variation of solar irradiance indicated by F10.7. The variation of GEC with F10.7 was anomalous (GEC-F10.7 slope significantly decreased) during the 2008th-2009th CRs; however, GEC versus EUV variation during that period was consistent with that during adjacent time intervals when using Solar Heliospheric Observatory/Solar EUV Monitor 26-34 nm EUV measurements. The reason is that F10.7 response to that intense active region was much stronger than EUV response; thus, the EUV-F10.7 slope decreased. We confirmed decreased EUV-F10.7 slope during the 2008th-2009th CRs for different wavelengths within 27-120 nm using Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Solar EUV Experiment high spectral resolution EUV measurements. And on the basis of Solar Heliospheric Observatory/Solar EUV Monitor EUV measurements during solar cycle 23, we further presented that EUV-F10.7 slope statistically tends to decrease when the SR variation of F10.7 significantly enhances. Moreover, we found that ionospheric time lag effect to EUV is exaggerated when using F10.7, owing to the time lag effect of EUV to F10.7.

Relationships between solar activity and climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, W. O.

1975-01-01

The relationship between recurrent droughts in the High Plains of the United States and the double sunspot cycle is discussed in detail. It is suggested that high solar activity is generally related to an increase in meridional circulation and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter, and the effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

Hemispheric asymmetries in high-latitude ionospheric convection and upper atmosphere neutral wind circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, M.; Cnossen, I.; Haaland, S.

2015-12-01

Recent observations have shown that the ionospheric/thermospheric response to solar wind and IMF dependent processes in the magnetosphere can be very dissimilar in the Northern and Southern polar regions. We present statistical studies of both the high-latitude ionospheric convection and the upper thermospheric circulation patterns obtained over almost a full solar cycle during the first decade of this century by measurements of the electron drift instrument (EDI) on board the Cluster satellites and by the accelerometer on board the CHAMP spacecraft, respectively. The asymmetries are attributed to the non-dipolar portions of the Earth's magnetic field that constitute hemispheric differences in magnetic flux densities, different offsets of the invariant geomagnetic poles, and generally in different field configurations of both hemispheres. Seasonal and solar cycle effects of the asymmetries are considered and first trials to explain the effects by numerical modeling are presented.

Power and Efficiency Analysis of a Solar Central Receiver Combined Cycle Plant with a Small Particle Heat Exchanger Receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virgen, Matthew Miguel

Two significant goals in solar plant operation are lower cost and higher efficiencies. To achieve those goals, a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) system, which uses the hot gas turbine exhaust to produce superheated steam for a bottoming Rankine cycle by way of a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), is investigated in this work. Building off of a previous gas turbine model created at the Combustion and Solar Energy Laboratory at SDSU, here are added the HRSG and steam turbine model, which had to handle significant change in the mass flow and temperature of air exiting the gas turbine due to varying solar input. A wide range of cases were run to explore options for maximizing both power and efficiency from the proposed CSP CCGT plant. Variable guide vanes (VGVs) were found in the earlier model to be an effective tool in providing operational flexibility to address the variable nature of solar input. Combined cycle efficiencies in the range of 50% were found to result from this plant configuration. However, a combustor inlet temperature (CIT) limit leads to two distinct Modes of operation, with a sharp drop in both plant efficiency and power occurring when the air flow through the receiver exceeded the CIT limit. This drawback can be partially addressed through strategic use of the VGVs. Since system response is fully established for the relevant range of solar input and variable guide vane angles, the System Advisor Model (SAM) from NREL can be used to find what the actual expected solar input would be over the course of the day, and plan accordingly. While the SAM software is not yet equipped to model a Brayton cycle cavity receiver, appropriate approximations were made in order to produce a suitable heliostat field to fit this system. Since the SPHER uses carbon nano-particles as the solar absorbers, questions of particle longevity and how the particles might affect the flame behavior in the combustor were addressed using the chemical kinetics software ChemkinPro by modeling the combustion characteristics both with and without the particles. This work is presented in the Appendix.

C-14 and temperature variation around and after AD 775 - after the Dark Age Grand Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.

2016-04-01

We have compiled an extensive catalog of aurora observations from the Far and Near East as well as Europe for the time from AD 550 to 845. From historic observations of aurorae and sunspots as well as the C-14 and Be-10 data, we can date the end of the Dark Age grand minimum to about AD 690; we see strong activity after this period. We can fix the solar activity Schwabe cycle maxima and minima in the 7th and 8th centuries.. The strong 14-C increase in data with 1-yr time resolution in the AD 770s (e.g. Miyake et al. 2012) is still a matter of debate, e.g. a solar super-flare. In the last three millennia, there were two more strong rapid rises in 14-C - around BC 671 and AD 1795. All three 14-C variations are embedded in similar evolution of solar activity, as we can show with various solar activity proxies; secular evolution of solar wind plays an important role. The rises of 14-C - within a few years each - can be explained by a sudden strong decrease in solar modulation potential leading to increased radioisotope production. The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects: (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. In addition to arXiv:1503.01581 and arXiv:1508.06745, we also discuss the temperature depression and new quasi-annual 10-Be data. If a temperature depression right after AD 775 for a few decades can be confirmed, this would be fully consistent with our suggestion: reduced solar activity since AD 775 (for a few decades like in the Dalton minimum). Otherwise, one would not expect such a temperature depression after a solar super-flare.

On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H.

In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect.

Lead-acid batteries in solar photovoltaic power systems for marine aids to navigation. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trenchard, S.E.

1981-10-01

Since 1974, the U.S. Coast Guard has been testing lead-acid batteries in solar photovoltaic-powered systems for aids to navigation. Three types of lead-acid batteries, distinguished by the composition of their grid material, have been tested: lead-antimony grid, lead-calcium grid, and pure-lead grid. This report contains a comparison of the charging characteristics and the charge-discharge cycling behavior of each grid type. All types were remarkably similar qualitatively in their daily as well as annual cycling behavior but the significance of the quantitative differences offer distinctive tradeoffs. This report presents models for water usage, depth-of-discharge, and post-cycle capacity for various levels ofmore » voltage regulation. Based on the post-cycle capacity tests, the effect of grid strength, grid thickness, and operating conditions on life expectancy are presented. A final discussion presents the results of a field deployment of solar photovoltaic-powered aids to navigation in the Miami, Florida area. Potential solutions to the battery terminal corrosion and bird guano problems observed are discussed.« less

EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE NON-AXISYMMETRIC PERTURBATIONS IN THE MEAN-FIELD SOLAR DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.

2015-11-10

We explore the response of a nonlinear non-axisymmetric mean-field solar dynamo model to shallow non-axisymmetric perturbations. After a relaxation period, the amplitude of the non-axisymmetric field depends on the initial condition, helicity conservation, and the depth of perturbation. It is found that a perturbation that is anchored at 0.9 R{sub ⊙} has a profound effect on the dynamo process, producing a transient magnetic cycle of the axisymmetric magnetic field, if it is initiated at the growing phase of the cycle. The non-symmetric, with respect to the equator, perturbation results in a hemispheric asymmetry of the magnetic activity. The evolution ofmore » the axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric fields depends on the turbulent magnetic Reynolds number R{sub m}. In the range of R{sub m} = 10{sup 4}–10{sup 6} the evolution returns to the normal course in the next cycle, in which the non-axisymmetric field is generated due to a nonlinear α-effect and magnetic buoyancy. In the stationary state, the large-scale magnetic field demonstrates a phenomenon of “active longitudes” with cyclic 180° “flip-flop” changes of the large-scale magnetic field orientation. The flip-flop effect is known from observations of solar and stellar magnetic cycles. However, this effect disappears in the model, which includes the meridional circulation pattern determined by helioseismology. The rotation rate of the non-axisymmetric field components varies during the relaxation period and carries important information about the dynamo process.« less

Solar rotational modulations of spectral irradiance and correlations with the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-09-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Solar Rotational Modulations of Spectral Irradiance and Correlations with the Variability of Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, L.

2013-05-01

Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented.

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.