solar cycle evolution: Topics by Science.gov

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.
The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.
Latitude Distribution of Sunspots: Analysis Using Sunspot Data and a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Karak, Bidya Binay; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the equator and then (before the usual solar minimum) these two distributions touch each other. By visualizing the evolution of the distributions in two hemispheres, we separate the solar cycles by excluding this hemispheric overlap. From these isolated solar cycles in two hemispheres, we generate latitude distributions for each cycle, starting from cycle 8 to cycle 23. We find that the parameters of these distributions, namely the central latitude (C), width (δ), and height (H), evolve with the cycle number, and they show some hemispheric asymmetries. Although the asymmetries in these parameters persist for a few successive cycles, they get corrected within a few cycles, and the new asymmetries appear again. In agreement with the previous study, we find that distribution parameters are correlated with the strengths of the cycles, although these correlations are significantly different in two hemispheres. The general trend features, i.e., (i) stronger cycles that begin sunspot eruptions at relatively higher latitudes, and (ii) stronger cycles that have wider bands of sunspot emergence latitudes, are confirmed when combining the data from two hemispheres. We explore these features using a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations. We find that these features are correctly reproduced in this model. The solar cycle evolution of the distribution center is also in good agreement with observations. Possible explanations of the observed features based on this dynamo model are presented.
CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less
AFT: Extending Solar Cycle Prediction with Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upton, L.; Hathaway, D. H.

2017-12-01

The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model is an innovative surface flux transport model that simulates the evolution of the radial magnetic field on the surface of the Sun. AFT was designed to be as realistic as possible by 1: incorporating the observed surface flows (meridional flow, differential rotation, and an explicit evolving convective pattern) and by 2: using data assimilation to incorporate the observed magnetic fields directly from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. AFT has proven to be successful in simulating the evolution of the surface magnetic fields on both short time scales (days-weeks) as well as for long time scales (years). In particular, AFT has been shown to accurately predict the evolution of the Sun's dipolar magnetic field 3-5 years in advance. Since the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at solar cycle minimum is the best indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, this has in turn extended our ability to make solar cycle predictions to 3-5 years before solar minimum occurs. Here, we will discuss some of the challenges of implementing data assimilation into AFT. We will also discuss the role of data assimilation in advancing solar cycle predictive capability.
Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.Plain Language SummaryThere is growing interest in being able to predict the evolution in solar conditions on a better basis than past experience, which is necessarily limited. Two of the key features of the solar magnetic cycle are that the polar fields reverse just after the peak of each sunspot cycle and that the polar field that has accumulated by the time of each sunspot minimum is a good indicator of the amplitude of the following cycle. Thus, understanding the evolution of the polar fields becomes crucial. We here use observations of the magnetic fields at the surface of the Sun and from satellites near Earth and Mercury, to identify how three unusually pronounced features of the most recent solar cycle have revealed that not all the magnetic flux emerging in sunspot regions progresses the evolution of the polar fields. The results have important implications for our understanding and prediction of the long-term evolution of the Sun and the "space climate" it produces near Earth, which will influence the design and performance of several of humankind's operational systems such as spacecraft, long pipelines, and power grids. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900045001&hterms=evolution+motor&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Devolution%2Bmotor','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900045001&hterms=evolution+motor&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Devolution%2Bmotor">Results in orbital evolution of objects in the geosynchronous region</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Friesen, Larry Jay; Jackson, Albert A., IV; Zook, Herbert A.; Kessler, Donald J. 1990-01-01 The orbital evolution of objects at or near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) has been simulated to investigate possible hazards to working geosynchronous satellites. Orbits of both large satellites and small particles have been simulated, subject to perturbations by nonspherical geopotential terms, lunar and solar gravity, and solar radiation pressure. Large satellites in initially circular orbits show an expected cycle of inclination change driven by lunar and solar gravity, but very little altitude change. They thus have little chance of colliding with objects at other altitudes. However, if such a satellite is disrupted, debris can reach thousands of kilometers above or below the initial satellite altitude. Small particles in GEO experience two cycles driven by solar radiation: an expected eccentricity cycle and an inclination cycle not expected. Particles generated by GEO insertion stage solid rocket motors typically hit the earth or escape promptly; a small fraction appear to remain in persistent orbits. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IAUGA..2091046M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IAUGA..2091046M">Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Meftah, Mustapha 2015-08-01 One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AnGeo..26..231B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AnGeo..26..231B">Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V. 2008-02-01 In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH11C..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH11C..01M">Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Munoz-Jaramillo, A. 2017-12-01 Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930003826','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930003826">Solar prediction analysis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Smith, Jesse B. 1992-01-01 Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.473..154D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.473..154D">The South Atlantic Anomaly throughout the solar cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Domingos, João; Jault, Dominique; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Mandea, Mioara 2017-09-01 The Sun-Earth's interaction is characterized by a highly dynamic electromagnetic environment, in which the magnetic field produced in the Earth's core plays an important role. One of the striking characteristics of the present geomagnetic field is denoted the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the total field intensity is unusually low and the flux of charged particles, trapped in the inner Van Allen radiation belts, is maximum. Here, we use, on one hand, a recent geomagnetic field model, CHAOS-6, and on the other hand, data provided by different platforms (satellites orbiting the Earth - POES NOAA for 1998-2014 and CALIPSO for 2006-2014). Evolution of the SAA particle flux can be seen as the result of two main effects, the secular variation of the Earth's core magnetic field and the modulation of the density of the inner radiation belts during the solar cycle, as a function of the L value that characterises the drift shell, where charged particles are trapped. To study the evolution of the particle flux anomaly, we rely on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of either POES particle flux or CALIOP dark noise. Analysed data are distributed on a geographical grid at satellite altitude, based on a L-shell reference frame constructed from the moving eccentric dipole. Changes in the main magnetic field are responsible for the observed westward drift. Three PCA modes account for the time evolution related to solar effects. Both the first and second modes have a good correlation with the thermospheric density, which varies in response to the solar cycle. The first mode represents the total intensity variation of the particle flux in the SAA, and the second the movement of the anomaly between different L-shells. The proposed analysis allows us to well recover the westward drift rate, as well as the latitudinal and longitudinal solar cycle oscillations, although the analysed data do not cover a complete (Hale) magnetic solar cycle (around 22 yr). Moreover, the developments made here would enable us to forecast the impact of the South Atlantic Anomaly on space weather. A model of the evolution of the eccentric dipole field (magnitude, offset and tilt) would suffice, together with a model for the solar cycle evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SoPh..290.2117B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SoPh..290.2117B">Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A. 2015-07-01 We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900035884&hterms=1087&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231087','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900035884&hterms=1087&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231087">Heliocentric distance and temporal dependence of the interplanetary density-magnetic field magnitude correlation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Roberts, D. A. 1990-01-01 The Helios, IMP 8, ISEE 3, ad Voyager 2 spacecraft are used to examine the solar cycle and heliocentric distance dependence of the correlation between density n and magnetic field magnitude B in the solar wind. Previous work had suggested that this correlation becomes progressively more negative with heliocentric distance out to 9.5 AU. Here it is shown that this evolution is not a solar cycle effect, and that the correlations become even more strongly negative at heliocentric distance larger than 9.5 AU. There is considerable variability in the distributions of the correlations at a given heliocentric distance, but this is not simply related to the solar cycle. Examination of the evolution of correlations between density and speed suggest that most of the structures responsible for evolution in the anticorrelation between n and B are not slow-mode waves, but rather pressure balance structures. The latter consist of both coherent structures such as tangential discontinuities and the more generally pervasive 'pseudosound' which may include the coherent structures as a subset. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH12A..04K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH12A..04K">Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V. 2017-12-01 Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5378029-long-term-variation-radar-auroral-backscatter-interplanetary-sector-structure','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5378029-long-term-variation-radar-auroral-backscatter-interplanetary-sector-structure">Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M. Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSH11B2210M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSH11B2210M">Hemispheric asymmetry in coronal hole evolution: Cause of the bashful ballerina?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, K.; Tlatov, A.; Virtanen, I. 2012-12-01 The magnetic hemisphere prevalent in the solar northern hemisphere has been shown to cover a larger area than in the south for about three years in the declining phase of several solar cycles. Correspondingly, the average field intensity is weaker in the northern hemisphere and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is shifted southward at these times. This phenomenon, now called the bashful ballerina, has been verified using several databases and methods, including the in situ observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU by the OMNI data base, at about 2 AU by the Ulysses probe, and at different radial distances by the Voyager 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 and 11 probes. The Ulysses observations show that the mean southward shift of the HCS was about 2 degrees in the declining phase of both cycle 22 and cycle 23, although the polar strengths were very different between the two cycles. The HMF observations by the Voyager and Pioneer probes show a very consistent structure of HMF sectors and HCS location in the entire heliosphere, and even beyond the termination shock. Moreover, they suggest a systematic difference in the development of northern and southern polar coronal holes. While the northern coronal holes developed very systematically during all the four solar minima since mid-1970s, the evolution of southern coronal holes was less systematic and delayed with respect to the northern hemisphere. This delay in the evolution of southern coronal holes leads to a larger extent of northern coronal holes and a southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the bashful ballerina phenomenon) for a few years in the declining phase of the solar cycle. Here we study direct observations of solar coronal holes and verify this difference in the evolution of coronal holes between the two solar hemispheres, which explains the bashful ballerina phenomenon. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910013657','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910013657">Astrophysical dust grains in stars, the interstellar medium, and the solar system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gehrz, Robert D. 1991-01-01 Studies of astrophysical dust grains in circumstellar shells, the interstellar medium, and the solar system may provide information about stellar evolution and about physical conditions in the primitive solar nebula. The following subject areas are covered: (1) the cycling of dust in stellar evolution and the formation of planetary systems; (2) astrophysical dust grains in circumstellar environments; (3) circumstellar grain formation and mass loss; (4) interstellar dust grains; (5) comet dust and the zodiacal cloud; (6) the survival of dust grains during stellar evolution; and (7) establishing connections between stardust and dust in the solar system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365427-effects-scatter-sunspot-group-tilt-angles-large-scale-magnetic-field-solar-surface','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365427-effects-scatter-sunspot-group-tilt-angles-large-scale-magnetic-field-solar-surface">Effects of the scatter in sunspot group tilt angles on the large-scale magnetic field at the solar surface</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: jiejiang@nao.cas.cn The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in surface flux transport (SFT) simulations. The evolution of the polar field is a consequence of Hale's polarity rules, together with the tilt angle distribution which has a systematic component (Joy's law) and a random component (tilt-angle scatter). We determine the scatter using the observed tilt angle data and study the effects of this scatter on the evolution of the solar surface field using SFT simulations with flux input basedmore » upon the recorded sunspot groups. The tilt angle scatter is described in our simulations by a random component according to the observed distributions for different ranges of sunspot group size (total umbral area). By performing simulations with a number of different realizations of the scatter we study the effect of the tilt angle scatter on the global magnetic field, especially on the evolution of the axial dipole moment. The average axial dipole moment at the end of cycle 17 (a medium-amplitude cycle) from our simulations was 2.73 G. The tilt angle scatter leads to an uncertainty of 0.78 G (standard deviation). We also considered cycle 14 (a weak cycle) and cycle 19 (a strong cycle) and show that the standard deviation of the axial dipole moment is similar for all three cycles. The uncertainty mainly results from the big sunspot groups which emerge near the equator. In the framework of Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the tilt angle scatter therefore constitutes a significant random factor in the cycle-to-cycle amplitude variability, which strongly limits the predictability of solar activity.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6289088-solar-cycle-evolution-solar-wind-speed-structure-between-observed-interplanetary-scintillation-method','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6289088-solar-cycle-evolution-solar-wind-speed-structure-between-observed-interplanetary-scintillation-method">Solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure between 1973 and 1985 observed with the interplanetary scintillation method</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Kojima, M.; Kakinuma, T. 1987-07-01 The solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure was studied for the years from 1973 to 1985 on a basis of interplanetary scintillation observations using a new method for mapping solar wind speed to the source surface. The major minimum-speed regions are distributed along a neutral line through the whole period of a solar cycle: when solar activity is low, they are distributed on the wavy neutral line along the solar equator; in the active phase they also tend to be distributed along the neutral line, which has a large latitudinal amplitude. The minimum-speed regions tend to be distributedmore » not only along the neutral line but also at low magnetic intensity regions and/or coronal bright regions which do not correspond to the neutral line. As the polar high-speed regions extend equatorward around the minimum phase, the latitudinal gradient of speed increases at the boundaries of the low-speed region, and the width of the low-speed region decreases. One or two years before the minimum of solar activity, two localized minimum-speed regions appear on the neutral line, and their locations are longitudinally separated by 180. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li class="active">1</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_2" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="21"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..53W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..53W">Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C. 2016-10-01 The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...851..142W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...851..142W">Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Webb, D. F.; Howard, R. A.; St. Cyr, O. C.; Vourlidas, A. 2017-12-01 The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a “floor” in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to ∼3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...591A..78V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...591A..78V">Photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in six magnetographs. I. Consistent evolution of the bashful ballerina</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi 2016-06-01 Aims: We study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), especially its north-south asymmetry. Special attention is paid to the reliability of the six data sets used in this study and to the consistency of the results based on these data sets. Methods: We use synoptic maps constructed from Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), Kitt Peak (KP), SOLIS, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric field and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Results: The six data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, including polarity reversals and hemispheric asymmetry. However, there are time intervals of several years long, when first KP measurements in the 1970s and 1980s, and later WSO measurements in the 1990s and early 2000s, significantly deviate from the other simultaneous data sets, reflecting likely errors at these times. All of the six magnetographs agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon) in the declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle during a few years of the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20-22, the southward shift of the HCS is mainly due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and mainly due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is mainly due to the axial quadrupole as for most earlier cycles. This further emphasizes the special character of the global solar field during cycle 23. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000655&hterms=jupiter&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Djupiter','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000655&hterms=jupiter&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Djupiter">The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Observed by Juno Enroute to Jupiter</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gruesbeck, Jacob R.; Gershman, Daniel J.; Espley, Jared R.; Connerney, John E. P. 2017-01-01 The Juno spacecraft was launched on 5 August 2011 and spent nearly 5 years traveling through the inner heliosphere on its way to Jupiter. The Magnetic Field Investigation was powered on shortly after launch and obtained vector measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at sample rates from 1 to 64 samples/second. The evolution of the magnetic field with radial distance from the Sun is compared to similar observations obtained by Voyager 1 and 2 and the Ulysses spacecraft, allowing a comparison of the radial evolution between prior solar cycles and the current depressed one. During the current solar cycle, the strength of the IMF has decreased throughout the inner heliosphere. A comparison of the variance of the normal component of the magnetic field shows that near Earth the variability of the IMF is similar during all three solar cycles but may be less at greater radial distances. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131505K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131505K">Helioseismic Observations of Two Solar Cycles and Constraints on Dynamo Theory</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kosovichev, Alexander 2018-01-01 Helioseismology data from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017 for almost two solar cycles, provide a unique opportunity to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and link these variations to the current dynamo models and simulations. The solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splitting of medium-degree p- and f-modes, as well as helioseismic inversions have been used to analyze variations of the differential rotation (“torsional oscillations”) and the global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the synoptic surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and evolution of the solar cycles, 23 and 24. The observational results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the dynamics of the tachocline and near-surface shear layer, and also may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles and detect the onset of the next cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...856...94Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...856...94Z">Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S. 2018-04-01 The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980162995','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980162995">SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest 1998-01-01 The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22270641-swap-observations-long-term-large-scale-evolution-extreme-ultraviolet-solar-corona','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22270641-swap-observations-long-term-large-scale-evolution-extreme-ultraviolet-solar-corona">SWAP OBSERVATIONS OF THE LONG-TERM, LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET SOLAR CORONA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Seaton, Daniel B.; De Groof, Anik; Berghmans, David The Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) EUV solar telescope on board the Project for On-Board Autonomy 2 spacecraft has been regularly observing the solar corona in a bandpass near 17.4 nm since 2010 February. With a field of view of 54 × 54 arcmin, SWAP provides the widest-field images of the EUV corona available from the perspective of the Earth. By carefully processing and combining multiple SWAP images, it is possible to produce low-noise composites that reveal the structure of the EUV corona to relatively large heights. A particularly important step in this processing was tomore » remove instrumental stray light from the images by determining and deconvolving SWAP's point-spread function from the observations. In this paper, we use the resulting images to conduct the first-ever study of the evolution of the large-scale structure of the corona observed in the EUV over a three year period that includes the complete rise phase of solar cycle 24. Of particular note is the persistence over many solar rotations of bright, diffuse features composed of open magnetic fields that overlie polar crown filaments and extend to large heights above the solar surface. These features appear to be related to coronal fans, which have previously been observed in white-light coronagraph images and, at low heights, in the EUV. We also discuss the evolution of the corona at different heights above the solar surface and the evolution of the corona over the course of the solar cycle by hemisphere.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH34A..02T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH34A..02T">Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W. 2017-12-01 Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8) </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126793-solar-wind-heavy-ions-over-solar-cycle-ace-swics-measurements','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126793-solar-wind-heavy-ions-over-solar-cycle-ace-swics-measurements">SOLAR WIND HEAVY IONS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23: ACE/SWICS MEASUREMENTS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H. 2013-05-01 Solar wind plasma and compositional properties reflect the physical properties of the corona and its evolution over time. Studies comparing the previous solar minimum with the most recent, unusual solar minimum indicate that significant environmental changes are occurring globally on the Sun. For example, the magnetic field decreased 30% between the last two solar minima, and the ionic charge states of O have been reported to change toward lower values in the fast wind. In this work, we systematically and comprehensively analyze the compositional changes of the solar wind during cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010 while the Sun movedmore » from solar maximum to solar minimum. We find a systematic change of C, O, Si, and Fe ionic charge states toward lower ionization distributions. We also discuss long-term changes in elemental abundances and show that there is a {approx}50% decrease of heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, and Fe) relative to H as the Sun went from solar maximum to solar minimum. During this time, the relative abundances in the slow wind remain organized by their first ionization potential. We discuss these results and their implications for models of the evolution of the solar atmosphere, and for the identification of the fast and slow wind themselves.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412762M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412762M">The wide skirt of the bashful ballerina: Hemispheric asymmetry of the heliospheric magnetic field in the inner and outer heliosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. 2012-04-01 We reanalyze the observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) made by the Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 heliospheric probes since 1972, and calculate the HMF sector occurrence ratios and tangential component strengths in the different regions of the heliosphere. Observations at the distant probes and at 1 AU show a very consistent picture of the HMF sector structure in the entire heliosphere, and even beyond the termination shock. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 show that the development of northern polar coronal holes was very systematic and active during all the four solar minima since mid-1970s. On the other hand, Voyager 2 observations show a less systematic and delayed development of southern coronal holes in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. This delay in the evolution of southern coronal holes with respect to the rapid and systematic evolution of northern coronal holes leads to a larger extent of northern coronal holes and a southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the bashful ballerina phenomenon) for a few years in the late declining phase of each solar cycle. HMF observations of the probes also directly verify the HCS southward shift, supporting earlier observations at 1-2 AU by the Ulysses probe and Earth-orbiting satellites and extending them into the more distant heliosphere. Although the evidence for the connection between the temporal difference in the evolution of polar coronal holes and the bashful ballerina times is based only on three solar cycles, this may be a common pattern for solar coronal hole evolution since the southward shift of the HCS has occurred at least since solar cycle 16. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JGRA..117.8104M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JGRA..117.8104M">The wide skirt of the bashful ballerina: Hemispheric asymmetry of the heliospheric magnetic field in the inner and outer heliosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I. 2012-08-01 We reanalyze the observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) made by the Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 heliospheric probes since 1972, and calculate the HMF sector occurrence ratios and tangential component strengths in the different regions of the heliosphere. Observations at the distant probes and at 1 AU show a very consistent picture of the HMF sector structure in the entire heliosphere, and even beyond the termination shock. HMF observations by the probes also support the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the bashful ballerina phenomenon), which is observed earlier at 1-2 AU by the Ulysses probe and Earth-orbiting satellites, and verify the HCS shift over a wide range of radial distances until the distant heliosphere. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 show that the development of northern polar coronal holes was very systematic and active during all the four solar minima since mid-1970s, while Voyager 2 observations show a less systematic and delayed development of southern coronal holes in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. This delay in the evolution of southern coronal holes with respect to the rapid and systematic evolution of northern coronal holes leads to a larger extent of northern coronal holes and the southward shift of the HCS for a few years in the late declining phase of each solar cycle. Although evidence for the connection between the different evolution of polar coronal holes and the bashful ballerina phenomenon is obtained here only for three solar cycles, this may be a common pattern for solar coronal hole evolution since the southward shift of the HCS has occurred at least since solar cycle 16. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126847-magnetohydrodynamic-simulation-driven-kinematic-mean-field-model-solar-cycle','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126847-magnetohydrodynamic-simulation-driven-kinematic-mean-field-model-solar-cycle">MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION-DRIVEN KINEMATIC MEAN FIELD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CYCLE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Simard, Corinne; Charbonneau, Paul; Bouchat, Amelie, E-mail: corinne@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: amelie.bouchat@mail.mcgill.ca We construct a series of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models operating in the {alpha}{Omega}, {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} and {alpha}{sup 2} regimes, all using the full {alpha}-tensor extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing large-scale magnetic fields undergoing solar-like cyclic polarity reversals. We also include an internal differential rotation profile produced in a purely hydrodynamical parent simulation of solar convection, and a simple meridional flow profile described by a single cell per meridional quadrant. An {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} mean-field model, presumably closest to the mode of dynamo action characterizing the MHD simulation, produces a spatiotemporal evolution of magnetic fields thatmore » share some striking similarities with the zonally-averaged toroidal component extracted from the simulation. Comparison with {alpha}{sup 2} and {alpha}{Omega} mean-field models operating in the same parameter regimes indicates that much of the complexity observed in the spatiotemporal evolution of the large-scale magnetic field in the simulation can be traced to the turbulent electromotive force. Oscillating {alpha}{sup 2} solutions are readily produced, and show some similarities with the observed solar cycle, including a deep-seated toroidal component concentrated at low latitudes and migrating equatorward in the course of the solar cycle. Various numerical experiments performed using the mean-field models reveal that turbulent pumping plays an important role in setting the global characteristics of the magnetic cycles.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356862-temperature-quiescent-streamers-during-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356862-temperature-quiescent-streamers-during-solar-cycles">The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Landi, E.; Testa, P. 2014-05-20 Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. Wemore » measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002JGRA..107.1136R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002JGRA..107.1136R">Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. 2002-07-01 In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22522485-spectral-evolution-anomalous-cosmic-rays-voyager-beyond-termination-shock','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22522485-spectral-evolution-anomalous-cosmic-rays-voyager-beyond-termination-shock">SPECTRAL EVOLUTION OF ANOMALOUS COSMIC RAYS AT VOYAGER 1 BEYOND THE TERMINATION SHOCK</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Senanayake, U. K.; Florinski, V.; Cummings, A. C. When the Voyager 1 spacecraft crossed the termination shock (TS) on 2004 December 16, the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) could not have been produced by steady-state diffusive shock acceleration. However, over the next few years, in the declining phase of the solar cycle, the spectra began to evolve into the expected power-law profile. Observations at the shock led to a broad range of alternative theories for ACR acceleration. In spite of that, in this work we show that the observations could be explained by assuming ACRs are accelerated at the TS. In this paper, we propose thatmore » the solar cycle had an important effect on the unrolling of the spectra in the heliosheath. To investigate the spectral evolution of ACRs, a magnetohydrodynamic background model with stationary solar-wind inner boundary conditions was used to model the transport of helium and oxygen ions. We used a backward-in-time stochastic integration technique where phase-space trajectories are integrated until the so-called “injection energy” is reached. Our simulation results were compared with Voyager 1 observations using three different diffusion models. It is shown that the spectral evolution of ACRs in the heliosheath at Voyager 1 could be explained by an increase in the source strength and an enhancement in diffusion as a result of a decrease of the turbulent correlation length in the declining phase of the solar cycle. At the same time, drift effects seem to have had a smaller effect on the evolution of the spectra.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365016-evolution-au-equatorial-solar-wind-its-association-morphology-heliospheric-current-sheet-from-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365016-evolution-au-equatorial-solar-wind-its-association-morphology-heliospheric-current-sheet-from-solar-cycles">The evolution of 1 AU equatorial solar wind and its association with the morphology of the heliospheric current sheet from solar cycles 23 to 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H. 2014-09-20 The solar wind can be categorized into three types based on its 'freeze-in' temperature (T {sub freeze-in}) in the coronal source: low T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from coronal holes, high T {sub freeze-in} wind mostly from regions outside of coronal holes, including streamers (helmet streamer and pseudostreamer), active regions, etc., and transient interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) usually possessing the hottest T {sub freeze-in}. The global distribution of these three types of wind has been investigated by examining the most effective T {sub freeze-in} indicator, the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio, as measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometermore » on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) during 1998-2008 by Zhao et al. In this study, we extend the previous investigation to 2011 June, covering the unusual solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2007-2010) and the beginning of solar cycle 24. We find that during the entire solar cycle, from the ascending phase of cycle 23 in 1998 to the ascending phase of cycle 24 in 2011, the average fractions of the low O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (LOR) wind, the high O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio (HOR) wind, and ICMEs at 1 AU are 50.3%, 39.4%, and 10.3%, respectively; the contributions of the three types of wind evolve with time in very different ways. In addition, we compare the evolution of the HOR wind with two heliospheric current sheet (HCS) parameters, which indicate the latitudinal standard deviation (SD) and the slope (SL) of the HCS on the synoptic Carrington maps at 2.5 solar radii surface. We find that the fraction of HOR wind correlates with SD and SL very well (slightly better with SL than with SD), especially after 2005. This result verifies the link between the production of HOR wind and the morphology of the HCS, implying that at least one of the major sources of the HOR wind must be associated with the HCS.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020052391&hterms=rock+cycle&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drock%2Bcycle','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020052391&hterms=rock+cycle&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drock%2Bcycle">Early Evolution of Earth's Geochemical Cycle and Biosphere: Implications for Mars Exobiology</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> DesMarais, David J.; Chang, Sherwood (Technical Monitor) 1997-01-01 Carbon (C) has played multiple key roles for life and its environment. C has formed organics, greenhouse gases, aquatic pH buffers, redox buffers, and magmatic constituents affecting plutonism and volcanism. These roles interacted across a network of reservoirs and processes known as the biogeochemical C cycle. Changes in the cycle over geologic time were driven by increasing solar luminosity, declining planetary heat flow, and continental and biological evolution. The early Archean C cycle was dominated by hydrothermal alteration of crustal rocks and by thermal emanations of CO2 and reduced species (eg., H2, Fe(2+) and sulfides). Bioorganic synthesis was achieved by nonphotosynthetic CO2-fixing bacteria (chemoautotrophs) and, possibly, bacteria (organotrophs) utilizing any available nonbiological organic C. Responding both to abundant solar energy and to a longterm decline in thermal sources of chemical energy and reducing power, the blaspheme first developed anoxygenic photosynthesis, then, ultimately, oxygenic photosynthesis. O2-photosynthesis played a central role in transforming the ancient environment and blaspheme to the modem world. The geochemical C cycles of early Earth and Mars were quite similar. The principal differences between the modem C cycles of these planets arose during the later evolution of their heat flows, crusts, atmospheres and, perhaps, their blasphemes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH51D2537S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH51D2537S">Solar wind structure out of the ecliptic plane over solar cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sokol, J. M.; Bzowski, M.; Tokumaru, M. 2017-12-01 Sun constantly emits a stream of plasma known as solar wind. Ground-based observations of the solar wind speed through the interplanetary scintillations (IPS) of radio flux from distant point sources and in-situ measurements by Ulysses mission revealed that the solar wind flow has different characteristics depending on the latitude. This latitudinal structure evolves with the cycle of solar activity. The knowledge on the evolution of solar wind structure is important for understanding the interaction between the interstellar medium surrounding the Sun and the solar wind, which is responsible for creation of the heliosphere. The solar wind structure must be taken into account in interpretation of most of the observations of heliospheric energetic neutral atoms, interstellar neutral atoms, pickup ions, and heliospheric backscatter glow. The information on the solar wind structure is not any longer available from direct measurements after the termination of Ulysses mission and the only source of the solar wind out of the ecliptic plane is the IPS observations. However, the solar wind structure obtained from this method contains inevitable gaps in the time- and heliolatitude coverage. Sokół et al 2015 used the solar wind speed data out of the ecliptic plane retrieved from the IPS observations performed by Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (Nagoya University, Japan) and developed a methodology to construct a model of evolution of solar wind speed and density from 1985 to 2013 that fills the data gaps. In this paper we will present a refined model of the solar wind speed and density structure as a function of heliographic latitude updated by the most recent data from IPS observations. And we will discuss methods of extrapolation of the solar wind structure out of the ecliptic plane for the past solar cycles, when the data were not available, as well as forecasting for few years upward. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2686R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2686R">Ancient cellular structures and modern humans: change of survival strategies before prolonged low solar activity period</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ragulskaya, Mariya; Rudenchik, Evgeniy; Gromozova, Elena; Voychuk, Sergei; Kachur, Tatiana The study of biotropic effects of modern space weather carries the information about the rhythms and features of adaptation of early biological systems to the outer space influence. The influence of cosmic rays, ultraviolet waves and geomagnetic field on early life has its signs in modern biosphere processes. These phenomena could be experimentally studied on present-day biological objects. Particularly inorganic polyphosphates, so-called "fossil molecules", attracts special attention as the most ancient molecules which arose in inanimate nature and have been accompanying biological objects at all stages of evolution. Polyphosphates-containing graves of yeast's cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain Y-517, , from the Ukrainian Collection of Microorganisms was studied by daily measurements during 2000-2013 years. The IZMIRAN daily data base of physiological parameters dynamics during 2000-2013 years were analyzed simultaneously (25 people). The analysis showed significant simultaneous changes of the statistical parameters of the studied biological systems in 2004 -2006. The similarity of simultaneous changes of adaptation strategies of human organism and the cell structures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae during the 23-24 cycles of solar activity are discussed. This phenomenon could be due to a replacement of bio-effective parameters of space weather during the change from 23rd to 24th solar activity cycle and nonstandard geophysical peculiarities of the 24th solar activity cycle. It could be suggested that the observed similarity arose as the optimization of evolution selection of the living systems in expectation of probable prolonged period of low solar activity (4-6 cycles of solar activity). </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PEPI..187...78H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PEPI..187...78H">Solar magnetic fields</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hood, Alan W.; Hughes, David W. 2011-08-01 This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed quantities, strongly supports the idea of a large-scale solar dynamo. Current theoretical ideas on the location and mechanism of this dynamo are presented. The solar cycle influences the behaviour of the global coronal magnetic field and it is the eruptions of this field that can impact on the Earth's environment. These global coronal variations can be modelled to a surprising degree of accuracy. Recent high resolution observations of the Sun's magnetic field in quiet regions, away from sunspots, show that there is a continual evolution of a small-scale magnetic field, presumably produced by small-scale dynamo action in the solar interior. Sunspots, a natural consequence of the large-scale dynamo, emerge, evolve and disperse over a period of several days. Numerical simulations can help to determine the physical processes governing the emergence of sunspots. We discuss the interaction of these emerging fields with the pre-existing coronal field, resulting in a variety of dynamic phenomena. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AIPC..679..234H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AIPC..679..234H">Repeated Structures Found After the Solar Maximum in the Butterfly Diagrams of Coronal Holes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hofer, M. Y.; Storini, M. 2003-09-01 The influence of the solar cycle evolution on the coronal hole space-time distribution is well known, for polar as well as for equatorial isolated sources of high speed solar wind. Among them the long-lived coronal holes occurrence from the sunspot cycle 21 on is investigated, using the coronal hole catalogue based on HeI (1083 nm) observations (Sanchez-Ibarra and Barraza-Paredes). In at least these two solar cycles (n. 21 and n. 22) a similar structure in the latitude-time diagram of coronal holes is found. The area occurs shortly after the solar maximum at around ~35° heliolatitude and consists of over several Carrington Rotations stable coronal holes (>5 Carr. Rot.s). The diagonal disappears 2-3 years later at the helioequator. Furthermore, the analysis results in a close relation between long-lived isolated coronal holes and the soft X-class flares. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22130727-solar-cycle-propagation-memory-prediction-insights-from-century-magnetic-proxies','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22130727-solar-cycle-propagation-memory-prediction-insights-from-century-magnetic-proxies">SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Ap%26SS.363..137S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Ap%26SS.363..137S">Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sierra-Porta, D. 2018-07-01 In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH22B..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH22B..06M">Terminator 2020: Get Ready for the "Event" of The Next Decade</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J.; Fan, Y.; Rempel, M.; Dikpati, M. 2017-12-01 The abrupt end of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 at the Sun's equator are observed with instruments from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These events are remarkable in that they rapidly trigger the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next solar cycle at mid-latitudes. The triggered onset of new cycle flux emergence leads to blossoming of the new cycle shortly thereafter. Using small-scale tracers of magnetic solar activity we examine the timing of the cycle ``termination points'' in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is less than one solar rotation, and possibly as little as a eight days. This very short transition time implies that the mean magnetic field present in the Sun's convection zone is approximately 80 kG. This value may be considerably larger than conventional explorations estimate and therefore, have a significant dynamical impact on the physical appearance of solar activity, and considerably impacting our ability to perform first-principles numerical simulations of the same. Should solar cycle 24 [and 25] continue in their progression we anticipate that a termination event of this type should occur in the 2020 timeframe. PSP will have a front row seat to observe this systemic flip in solar magnetism and the induced changes in our star's radiative and partiuculate output. Such observations may prove to be critical in assessing the Sun's ability to force short term evolution in the Earth's atmosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1734f0001G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1734f0001G">New design for CSP plant with direct-steam solar receiver and molten-salt storage</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ganany, Alon; Hadad, Itay 2016-05-01 This paper presents the evolution of BrightSource's Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology - from a solar steam generator (SRSG) with no Thermal Energy Storage (TES) to SRSG with TES to Extended-cycle TES. The paper discusses SRSG with TES technology, and the capabilities of this solution are compared with those of an MSR plant. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5518764','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5518764">Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K. 2017-01-01 Abstract Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25. PMID:28781930 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28781930','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28781930">Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J; Imber, Suzanne M; James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K 2017-06-01 Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IAUS..294...65G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IAUS..294...65G">Comparison of solar activity during last two minima on turn of Activity Cycles 22/23 and 23/24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Podgorski, Piotr; Sylwester, Janusz; Farnik, Frantisek 2013-07-01 The subject of our work is the review and comparison of solar activity during the last two solar minima that occurred between recent activity cycles. We use the soft X-ray global solar corona observations covering the two nine-months long time intervals in 1997/98 and 2009. Data from RF15-I multichannel photometer are used for the penultimate minimum. For the last unusually deep and prolonged solar activity minimum in 2009 the data from SphinX spectrophotometer are used. Comparison of measurements from both minima takes place in the overlapping energy range 2-15 keV. We focus on the active region formation, evolution and flaring productivity during respective minima. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5047M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5047M">The Measurement of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability at 782 nm during the Solar Cycle 24 using the SES on-board PICARD</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain; Irbah, Abdanour; Bekki, Slimane 2016-04-01 A Sun Ecartometry Sensor (SES) was developed to provide the stringent pointing requirements of the PICARD satellite. The SES sensor produced an image of the Sun at 782+/-5 nm. From the SES data, we obtained a new time series of the solar spectral irradiance at 782nm from 2010 to 2014. SES observations provided a qualitatively consistent evolution of the solar spectral irradiance variability at 782 nm during the solar cycle 24. Comparisons will be made with Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) semi-empirical model and with the Spectral Irradiance Monitor instrument (SIM) on-board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment satellite (SORCE). These data will help to improve the representation of the solar forcing in the IPSL Global Circulation Model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24859137','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24859137">The continuity of bacterial and physicochemical evolution: theory and experiments.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Spitzer, Jan 2014-01-01 The continuity of chemical and biological evolution, incorporating life's emergence, can be explored experimentally by energizing 'dead' bacterial biomacromolecules with nutrients under cycling physicochemical gradients. This approach arises from three evolutionary principles rooted in physical chemistry: (i) broken bacterial cells cannot spontaneously self-assemble into a living state without the supply of external energy - 2nd law of thermodynamics, (ii) the energy delivery must be cycling - the primary mechanism of chemical evolution at rotating planetary surfaces under solar irradiation, (iii) the cycling energy must act on chemical mixtures of high molecular diversity and crowding - provided by dead bacterial populations. Copyright © 2014 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..67L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..67L">Coronal Holes and Magnetic Flux Ropes Interweaving Solar Cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony; Leamon, Robert; Qiu, Jiong 2016-10-01 Coronal holes, dark patches observed in solar observations in extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelengths, provide an excellent proxy for regions of open magnetic field rooted near the photosphere. Through a multi-instrument approach, including SDO data, we are able to stitch together high resolution maps of coronal hole boundaries spanning the past two solar activity cycles. These observational results are used in conjunction with models of open magnetic field to probe physical solar parameters. Magnetic flux ropes are commonly defined as bundles of solar magnetic field lines, twisting around a common axis. Photospheric surface flows and magnetic reconnection work in conjunction to form these ropes, storing magnetic stresses until eruption. With an automated methodology to identify flux ropes within observationally driven magnetofrictional simulations, we can study their properties in detail. Of particular interest is a solar-cycle length statistical description of eruption rates, spatial distribution, magnetic orientation, flux, and helicity. Coronal hole observations can provide useful data about the distribution of the fast solar wind, with magnetic flux ropes yielding clues as to ejected magnetic field and the resulting space weather geo-effectiveness. With both of these cycle-spanning datasets, we can begin to form a more detailed picture of the evolution and consequences of both sets of solar magnetic features. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100021373&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DButterfly','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100021373&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DButterfly">Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. 2010-01-01 Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=module+AND+young&pg=6&id=EJ758598','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=module+AND+young&pg=6&id=EJ758598">Our Cosmic Connection</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Young, Donna L. 2005-01-01 To help students understand the connection that Earth and the solar system have with the cosmic cycles of stellar evolution, and to give students an appreciation of the beauty and elegance of celestial phenomena, the Chandra X-Ray Center (CXC) educational website contains a stellar evolution module that is available free to teachers. In this… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH52A..04L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH52A..04L">MAVEN Upstream Observations of the Cycle 24 Space Weather Conditions at Mars</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Eparvier, F. G.; Li, Y.; Jian, L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M. 2016-12-01 The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft went into orbit around Mars during the height of the activity phase of Solar Cycle 24. The mission was designed in part to study the response of the upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere of Mars to solar and solar wind inputs. When MAVEN is on the Martian dayside and orbiting around its apoapsis altitude of 6200 km, the suite of instruments onboard can measure the solar wind plasma (density, velocity), interplanetary magnetic field (magnitude and direction), and particle counts of solar energetic particles (SEPs), as well as the EUV solar irradiance. We will present an overview of the upstream conditions observed to date and highlight a number of Mars-impacting space weather events due to ICMEs and SEPs. We will also present events that are triggered by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which become more prominent beyond 1 AU and are the dominant heliospheric structures during the declining phase of the solar cycle. As part of the discussion, we will compare and contrast observations from MAVEN and ACE/WIND or STEREO-A during periods when Mars and the 1-AU observer were in solar opposition or nearly aligned along the solar wind Parker spiral. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811821N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811821N">C-14 and temperature variation around and after AD 775 - after the Dark Age Grand Minimum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L. 2016-04-01 We have compiled an extensive catalog of aurora observations from the Far and Near East as well as Europe for the time from AD 550 to 845. From historic observations of aurorae and sunspots as well as the C-14 and Be-10 data, we can date the end of the Dark Age grand minimum to about AD 690; we see strong activity after this period. We can fix the solar activity Schwabe cycle maxima and minima in the 7th and 8th centuries.. The strong 14-C increase in data with 1-yr time resolution in the AD 770s (e.g. Miyake et al. 2012) is still a matter of debate, e.g. a solar super-flare. In the last three millennia, there were two more strong rapid rises in 14-C - around BC 671 and AD 1795. All three 14-C variations are embedded in similar evolution of solar activity, as we can show with various solar activity proxies; secular evolution of solar wind plays an important role. The rises of 14-C - within a few years each - can be explained by a sudden strong decrease in solar modulation potential leading to increased radioisotope production. The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects: (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. In addition to arXiv:1503.01581 and arXiv:1508.06745, we also discuss the temperature depression and new quasi-annual 10-Be data. If a temperature depression right after AD 775 for a few decades can be confirmed, this would be fully consistent with our suggestion: reduced solar activity since AD 775 (for a few decades like in the Dalton minimum). Otherwise, one would not expect such a temperature depression after a solar super-flare. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22525488-coupled-babcockleighton-solar-dynamo-model-surface-magnetic-flux-evolution','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22525488-coupled-babcockleighton-solar-dynamo-model-surface-magnetic-flux-evolution">A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. I. SURFACE MAGNETIC FLUX EVOLUTION</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul; Carignan-Dugas, Arnaud, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returnsmore » Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SPD....47.0206W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SPD....47.0206W">Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William 2016-05-01 In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960053237','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960053237">Workshop on Evolution of Martian Volatiles. Part 1</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Jakosky, B. (Editor); Treiman, A. (Editor) 1996-01-01 This volume contains papers that were presented on February 12-14, 1996 at the Evolution for Martian Volatiles Workshop. Topics in this volume include: returned Martian samples; acidic volatiles and the Mars soil; solar EUV Radiation; the ancient Mars Thermosphere; primitive methane atmospheres on Earth and Mars; the evolution of Martian water; the role of SO2 for the climate history of Mars; impact crater morphology; the formation of the Martian drainage system; atmospheric dust-water ice Interactions; volatiles and volcanos; accretion of interplanetary dust particles; Mars' ionosphere; simulations with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model; modeling the Martian water cycle; the evolution of Martian atmosphere; isotopic composition; solar occultation; magnetic fields; photochemical weathering; NASA's Mars Surveyor Program; iron formations; measurements of Martian atmospheric water vapor; and the thermal evolution Models of Mars. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860012106','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860012106">Technology for Bayton-cycle powerplants using solar and nuclear energy</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> English, R. E. 1986-01-01 Brayton cycle gas turbines have the potential to use either solar heat or nuclear reactors for generating from tens of kilowatts to tens of megawatts of power in space, all this from a single technology for the power generating system. Their development for solar energy dynamic power generation for the space station could be the first step in an evolution of such powerplants for a very wide range of applications. At the low power level of only 10 kWe, a power generating system has already demonstrated overall efficiency of 0.29 and operated 38 000 hr. Tests of improved components show that these components would raise that efficiency to 0.32, a value twice that demonstrated by any alternate concept. Because of this high efficiency, solar Brayton cycle power generators offer the potential to increase power per unit of solar collector area to levels exceeding four times that from photovoltaic powerplants using present technology for silicon solar cells. The technologies for solar mirrors and heat receivers are reviewed and assessed. This Brayton technology for solar powerplants is equally suitable for use with the nuclear reactors. The available long time creep data on the tantalum alloy ASTAR-811C show that such Brayton cycles can evolve to cycle peak temperatures of 1500 K (2240 F). And this same technology can be extended to generate 10 to 100 MW in space by exploiting existing technology for terrestrial gas turbines in the fields of both aircraft propulsion and stationary power generation. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015294','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015294">Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. 2011-01-01 Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960041437','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960041437">Composition and evolution of the atmosphere of Venus</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Donahue, Thomas (Principal Investigator) 1996-01-01 The contract year started by analyzing Jovian atmospheric data acquired by the Galileo Probe Mass Spectrometer (GPMS). Two Venus hydrogen projects got underway as well. The first study strives to understand how to reconcile the standard treatment of the evolution of the H2O and HDO resevoirs on Venus over 4.5 Gyr in the presence of H and D escape and injection by comets. The second study is calculating the charge exchange contribution to hydrogen loss rates, using realistic models for exospheric H, H(+), D, D(+), and ion temperature from PV data. This report includes the following papers as attachments and supporting data: 'The Galileo Probe Mass Spectrometer: Composition of Jupiter's Atmosphere'; 'Chemical Composition Measurements of the Atmosphere of Jupiter with the Galileo Probe Mass Spectrometer'; 'Ion/Neutral Escape of Hydrogen and Deuterium: Evolution of Water'; 'Hydrogen and Deuterium in the Thermosphere of Venus: Solar Cycle Variations and Escape'; and 'Solar Cycle Variations in H(+) and D(+) Densities in the Venus Ionosphere: Implications for Escape'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036012','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036012">Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Love, J.J. 2011-01-01 Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007896','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007896">Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Webber, Hess S. A.; Karna, N.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kirk, M. S. 2014-01-01 Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110005625','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110005625">Solar Flare Impulsive Phase Observations from SDO and Other Observatories</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chamberlin, Phillip C.; Woods, Thomas N.; Schrijver, Karel; Warren, Harry; Milligan, Ryan; Christe, Steven; Brosius, Jeffrey W. 2010-01-01 With the start of normal operations of the Solar Dynamics Observatory in May 2010, the Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) have been returning the most accurate solar XUV and EUV measurements every 10 and 12 seconds, respectively, at almost 100% duty cycle. The focus of the presentation will be the solar flare impulsive phase observations provided by EVE and AIA and what these observations can tell us about the evolution of the initial phase of solar flares. Also emphasized throughout is how simultaneous observations with other instruments, such as RHESSI, SOHO-CDS, and HINODE-EIS, will help provide a more complete characterization of the solar flares and the evolution and energetics during the impulsive phase. These co-temporal observations from the other solar instruments can provide information such as extending the high temperature range spectra and images beyond that provided by the EUV and XUV wavelengths, provide electron density input into the lower atmosphere at the footpoints, and provide plasma flows of chromospheric evaporation, among other characteristics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...592A.160L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...592A.160L">Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leussu, Raisa; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Arlt, Rainer; Mursula, Kalevi 2016-08-01 Aims: The latitudinal evolution of sunspot emergence over the course of the solar cycle, the so-called butterfly diagram, is a fundamental property of the solar dynamo. Here we present a study of the butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence for cycles 7-10 and 11-23 using data from a recently digitized sunspot drawings by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1825-1867, and from RGO/USAF/NOAA(SOON) compilation of sunspot groups in 1874-2015. Methods: We developed a new, robust method of hemispheric wing separation based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. The method makes it possible to ascribe each sunspot group to a certain wing (solar cycle and hemisphere), and separate the old and new cycle during their overlap. This allows for an improved study of solar cycles compared to the common way of separating the cycles. Results: We separated each hemispheric wing of the butterfly diagram and analysed them with respect to the number of groups appearing in each wing, their lengths, hemispheric differences, and overlaps. Conclusions: The overlaps of successive wings were found to be systematically longer in the northern hemisphere for cycles 7-10, but in the southern hemisphere for cycles 16-22. The occurrence of sunspot groups depicts a systematic long-term variation between the two hemispheres. During Schwabe time, the hemispheric asymmetry was north-dominated during cycle 9 and south-dominated during cycle 10. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920037956&hterms=seti&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dseti','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920037956&hterms=seti&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dseti">An examination of astrophysical habitats for targeted SETI</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Doyle, Laurance R.; Mckay, Christopher P.; Reynolds, Ray T.; Whitmire, Daniel P.; Matese, John J. 1991-01-01 Planetary atmospheric radiative transfer models have recently given valuable insights into the definition of the solar system's ecoshell. In addition, however, results have indicated that constraints on solar evolution also need to be addressed, with even minor solar variations, (mass loss, for example), having important consequences from an exobiological standpoint. Following the definition of the solar system's ecoshell evolution, the ecoshells around different stellar spectral types can then be modeled. In this study the astrophysical constraints on the definition of ecoshells and possible exobiological habitats includes: (1) the investigation of the evolution of the solar system's ecoshell under different initial solar/stellar model conditions as indicated by both solar abundance considerations as well as planetary evidence; (2) an outline of considerations necessary to define the ecoshells around the most abundant spectral-type stars, the K and M stars looking at the effects on exobiological habitats of planetary rotational tidal locking effects, and stellar flare/chromospheric-activity cycles, among other effects; (3) a preliminary examination of the factors defining the expected ecoshells around binary stars determining the of regular stellar eclipses, and the expected shortening of the semi-major axis. These results can then be applied to the targeted microwave search for extraterrestrial intelligent signals by constraining the ecoshell space in the solar neighborhood. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ApJ...832...66E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ApJ...832...66E">Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E. 2016-11-01 We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100021365&hterms=Butterfly&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DButterfly','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100021365&hterms=Butterfly&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DButterfly">The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David 2010-01-01 The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSM43E..06X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSM43E..06X">Characterization of the Martian magnetic topology response to extreme solar transient events with MGS data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Xu, S.; Curry, S.; Mitchell, D. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lillis, R. J.; Dong, C. 2017-12-01 Characterizing how the solar cycle affects the physics of the Mars-solar wind interaction can improve our understanding of Mars' atmospheric evolution and the plasma environment at Mars. In particular, solar transient events such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) significantly change the solar-wind interaction, including the magnetic topology and ion acceleration. However, both the Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) missions have encountered relatively few extreme solar transient events due to the recent low solar activity (2004-2017). In contrast, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) was operating during a relatively active solar maximum (1999-2003). Based on new results from MAVEN, this study reanalyzes MGS data to better understand how the Martian plasma environment responds to extreme solar events. In particular, we aim to investigate how the magnetic topology during these extreme events differs from the topology during quiet times. We conduct orbit comparisons of the magnetic topology inferred from MGS electron pitch angle distributions during quiet periods and extreme events to determine how the open and closed field patterns respond to extreme events. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IAUGA..2251303K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015IAUGA..2251303K">Solar Variability Magnitudes and Timescales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kopp, Greg 2015-08-01 The Sun’s net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to many millennia. The former are directly observed as part of the on-going 37-year long total solar irradiance climate data record, while the latter are inferred from solar proxy and stellar evolution models. Since the Sun provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system, changes in the sunlight reaching our planet can have - and have had - significant impacts on life and civilizations.Total solar irradiance has been measured from space since 1978 by a series of overlapping instruments. These have shown changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere from timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. The Sun’s ~0.01% variations over a few minutes are caused by the superposition of convection and oscillations, and even occasionally by a large flare. Over days to weeks, changing surface activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1% level. The 11-year solar cycle has comparable irradiance variations with peaks near solar maxima.Secular variations are harder to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Proxy models of the Sun based on cosmogenic isotope records and inferred from Earth climate signatures indicate solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitude of these variations depends on many assumptions. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities.In this talk I will summarize the Sun’s variability magnitudes over different temporal ranges, showing examples relevant for climate studies as well as detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016CEAB...40..133S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016CEAB...40..133S">Periodicities in the X-ray Emission from the Solar Corona: SphinX and SOXS Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Steślicki, M.; Awasthi, A. K.; Gryciuk, M.; Jain, R. The structure and evolution of the solar magnetic field is driven by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo operating in the solar interior, which induces various solar activities that exhibit periodic variations on different timescales. Therefore, probing the periodic nature of emission originating from the solar corona may provide insights of the convection-zone-photosphere-corona coupling processes. We present the study of the mid-range periodicities, between rotation period (˜27 days) and the Schwabe cycle period (˜11 yr), in the solar soft X-ray emission, based on the data obtained by two instruments: SphinX and SOXS in various energy bands. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EP%26S...65..351I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EP%26S...65..351I">Long period astronomical cycles from the Triassic to Jurassic bedded chert sequence (Inuyama, Japan); Geologic evidences for the chaotic behavior of solar planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ikeda, Masayuki; Tada, Ryuji 2013-04-01 Astronomical theory predicts that ~2 Myr eccentricity cycle have changed its periodicity and amplitude through time because of the chaotic behavior of solar planets, especially Earth-Mars secular resonance. Although the ~2 Myr eccentricity cycle has been occasionally recognized in geological records, their frequency transitions have never been reported. To explore the frequency evolution of ~2 Myr eccentricity cycle, we used the bedded chert sequence in Inuyama, Japan, of which rhythms were proven to be of astronomical origin, covering the ~30 Myr long spanning from the Triassic to Jurassic. The frequency modulation of ~2 Myr cycle between ~1.6 and ~1.8 Myr periodicity detected from wavelet analysis of chert bed thickness variation are the first geologic record of chaotic transition of Earth-Mars secular resonance. The frequency modulation of ~2 Myr cycle will provide new constraints for the orbital models. Additionally, ~8 Myr cycle detected as chert bed thickness variation and its amplitude modulation of ~2 Myr cycle may be related to the amplitude modulation of ~2 Myr eccentricity cycle through non-linear process(es) of Earth system dynamics, suggesting possible impact of the chaotic behavior of Solar planets on climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365081-effects-meridional-flow-variations-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365081-effects-meridional-flow-variations-solar-cycles">Effects of meridional flow variations on solar cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H., E-mail: lisa.a.upton@vanderbilt.edu, E-mail: lar0009@uah.edu, E-mail: david.hathaway@nasa.gov 2014-09-10 The faster meridional flow that preceded the solar cycle 23/24 minimum is thought to have led to weaker polar field strengths, producing the extended solar minimum and the unusually weak cycle 24. To determine the impact of meridional flow variations on the sunspot cycle, we have simulated the Sun's surface magnetic field evolution with our newly developed surface flux transport model. We investigate three different cases: a constant average meridional flow, the observed time-varying meridional flow, and a time-varying meridional flow in which the observed variations from the average have been doubled. Comparison of these simulations shows that the variationsmore » in the meridional flow over cycle 23 have a significant impact (∼20%) on the polar fields. However, the variations produced polar fields that were stronger than they would have been otherwise. We propose that the primary cause of the extended cycle 23/24 minimum and weak cycle 24 was the weakness of cycle 23 itself—with fewer sunspots, there was insufficient flux to build a big cycle. We also find that any polar counter-cells in the meridional flow (equatorward flow at high latitudes) produce flux concentrations at mid-to-high latitudes that are not consistent with observations.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA21C..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA21C..04S">TIMED GUVI: Recent Progress and Future Challenges in the Ionosphere, and Thermosphere System Coupling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schaefer, R. K.; Paxton, L. J.; Zhang, Y. 2016-12-01 In this paper we review some of the things that we have learned about the response of the thermosphere and ionosphere from the peak of Solar Cycle 23 through the peak of Solar Cycle 24 and now into the declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. We will provide a very brief overview of what the far ultraviolet measurements (such as those from TIMED/GUVI - Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Global UltraViolet Imager) mean and our plans to continue to support the TIMED mission science objectives through the decline of Solar Cycle 24 and into Solar Cycle 25. We will show: 1) the results of our work on the evolution of thermospheric "storm fronts" as imaged in changes in composition (the O/N2 ratio) and how that response varies with longitude, hemisphere and solar cycle 2) the large scale structure of the nightside F-region ionosphere and the variation with longitude and geomagnetic conditions These results show one of the many uses of UV remote sensing from low Earth orbit. We continue to explore the GUVI data set and new products continue to be added to the GUVI website. We continue to provide O/N2 maps and have added NO total column maps. Please see the NEW website: http://guvitimed.jhuapl.eduImages below show the dramatic change in the neutral density as monitored with the O/N2 ratio during the geomagnetic storm of Nov 20, 2003. The previous day (Nov 19, 2003) is also shown for comparison. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMSH33A4129L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMSH33A4129L">Solar Corona/Wind Composition and Origins of the Solar Wind</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lepri, S. T.; Gilbert, J. A.; Landi, E.; Shearer, P.; von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T. 2014-12-01 Measurements from ACE and Ulysses have revealed a multifaceted solar wind, with distinctly different kinetic and compositional properties dependent on the source region of the wind. One of the major outstanding issues in heliophysics concerns the origin and also predictability of quasi-stationary slow solar wind. While the fast solar wind is now proven to originate within large polar coronal holes, the source of the slow solar wind remains particularly elusive and has been the subject of long debate, leading to models that are stationary and also reconnection based - such as interchange or so-called S-web based models. Our talk will focus on observational constraints of solar wind sources and their evolution during the solar cycle. In particular, we will point out long-term variations of wind composition and dynamic properties, particularly focused on the abundance of elements with low First Ionization Potential (FIP), which have been routinely measured on both ACE and Ulysses spacecraft. We will use these in situ observations, and remote sensing data where available, to provide constraints for solar wind origin during the solar cycle, and on their correspondence to predictions for models of the solar wind. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SunGe..10...89I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SunGe..10...89I">Solar Flare Super-Events: When they Can Occur and the Energy Limits of their Realization</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ishkov, Vitaly N. 2015-03-01 For the successful development of terrestrial civilization it is necessary to estimate the space factors, including phenomena on Sun, which can ruin it or cause such catastrophic loss, that the restoration to the initial level can take unacceptably long time. Super-powerful solar flares are the only such phenomena. Therefore an attempt is undertaken to estimate the possibility of such super-event occurrence at this stage of our star evolution. Since solar flare events are the consequence of the newly emerging magnetic fluxes interacting with the already existing magnetic fields of active regions, are investigated the observed cases which lead to the realization of such super-events. From the observations of the maximal magnetic fluxes during the period of reliable solar observations, the conclusion is made that the super- extreme solar flares cannot significantly exceed the most powerful solar flares which have already been observed. On the statistics of the reliable solar cycles the sunspot groups, in which occurred the most powerful solar super-events (August- September 1859 - solar cycle 10; June 1991 - SC 22; October-November 2003 - SC 23) appeared in the periods of the solar magnetic field reorganization between the epochs of "increased" and "lowered" solar activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2967T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2967T">Data quantile-quantile plots: quantifying the time evolution of space climatology</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tindale, Elizabeth; Chapman, Sandra 2017-04-01 The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales; embedded in the flow are the signatures of distinct non-linear physical processes from evolving turbulence to the dynamical solar corona. In-situ satellite observations of solar wind magnetic field and velocity are at minute and below time resolution and now extend over several solar cycles. Each solar cycle is unique, and the space climatology challenge is to quantify how solar wind variability changes within, and across, each distinct solar cycle, and how this in turn drives space weather at earth. We will demonstrate a novel statistical method, that of data-data quantile-quantile (DQQ) plots, which quantifies how the underlying statistical distribution of a given observable is changing in time. Importantly this method does not require any assumptions concerning the underlying functional form of the distribution and can identify multi-component behaviour that is changing in time. This can be used to determine when a sub-range of a given observable is undergoing a change in statistical distribution, or where the moments of the distribution only are changing and the functional form of the underlying distribution is not changing in time. The method is quite general; for this application we use data from the WIND satellite to compare the solar wind across the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 [1], and how these changes are manifest in parameters that quantify coupling to the earth's magnetosphere. [1] Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29866837','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29866837">Proterozoic Milankovitch cycles and the history of the solar system.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Meyers, Stephen R; Malinverno, Alberto 2018-06-19 The geologic record of Milankovitch climate cycles provides a rich conceptual and temporal framework for evaluating Earth system evolution, bestowing a sharp lens through which to view our planet's history. However, the utility of these cycles for constraining the early Earth system is hindered by seemingly insurmountable uncertainties in our knowledge of solar system behavior (including Earth-Moon history), and poor temporal control for validation of cycle periods (e.g., from radioisotopic dates). Here we address these problems using a Bayesian inversion approach to quantitatively link astronomical theory with geologic observation, allowing a reconstruction of Proterozoic astronomical cycles, fundamental frequencies of the solar system, the precession constant, and the underlying geologic timescale, directly from stratigraphic data. Application of the approach to 1.4-billion-year-old rhythmites indicates a precession constant of 85.79 ± 2.72 arcsec/year (2σ), an Earth-Moon distance of 340,900 ± 2,600 km (2σ), and length of day of 18.68 ± 0.25 hours (2σ), with dominant climatic precession cycles of ∼14 ky and eccentricity cycles of ∼131 ky. The results confirm reduced tidal dissipation in the Proterozoic. A complementary analysis of Eocene rhythmites (∼55 Ma) illustrates how the approach offers a means to map out ancient solar system behavior and Earth-Moon history using the geologic archive. The method also provides robust quantitative uncertainties on the eccentricity and climatic precession periods, and derived astronomical timescales. As a consequence, the temporal resolution of ancient Earth system processes is enhanced, and our knowledge of early solar system dynamics is greatly improved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SoPh..289.2141I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SoPh..289.2141I">Three-Dimensional Evolution of Flux-Rope CMEs and Its Relation to the Local Orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Isavnin, A.; Vourlidas, A.; Kilpua, E. K. J. 2014-06-01 Flux ropes ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution, which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar flux ropes evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space-weather forecasting tools. We present a follow-up study of the concepts described by Isavnin, Vourlidas, and Kilpua ( Solar Phys. 284, 203, 2013). We analyze 14 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear flux-rope signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. First, we estimate initial orientations of the flux ropes at the origin using extreme-ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations of the CMEs from ≈ 2 to 30 R⊙ with a three-dimensional geometric representation of a flux rope to determine their geometrical parameters. Finally, we propagate the flux ropes from ≈ 30 R⊙ to 1 AU through MHD-simulated background solar wind while using in-situ measurements at 1 AU of the associated magnetic cloud as a constraint for the propagation technique. This methodology allows us to estimate the flux-rope orientation all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. We find that while the flux-ropes' deflection occurs predominantly below 30 R⊙, a significant amount of deflection and rotation happens between 30 R⊙ and 1 AU. We compare the flux-rope orientation to the local orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). We find that slow flux ropes tend to align with the streams of slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere. During the solar-cycle minimum the slow solar-wind channel as well as the HCS usually occupy the area in the vicinity of the solar equatorial plane, which in the past led researchers to the hypothesis that flux ropes align with the HCS. Our results show that exceptions from this rule are explained by interaction with the Parker-spiraled background magnetic field, which dominates over the magnetic interaction with the HCS in the inner heliosphere at least during solar-minimum conditions. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.681a2021P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.681a2021P">Dynamical systems for modeling the evolution of the magnetic field of stars and Earth</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Popova, H. 2016-02-01 The cycles of solar magnetic activity are connected with a solar dynamo that operates in the convective zone. Solar dynamo mechanism is based on the combined action of the differential rotation and the alpha-effect. Application of these concepts allows us to get an oscillating solution as a wave of the toroidal field propagating from middle latitudes to the equator. We investigated the dynamo model with the meridional circulation by the low-mode approach. This approach is based on an assumption that the solar magnetic field can be described by non-linear dynamical systems with a relatively small number of parameters. Such non-linear dynamical systems are based on the equations of dynamo models. With this method dynamical systems have been built for media which contains the meridional flow and thickness of the convection zone of the star. It was shown the possibility of coexistence of quiasi-biennial and 22-year cycle. We obtained the different regimes (oscillations, vacillations, dynamo-bursts) depending on the value of the dynamo-number, the meridional circulation, and thickness of the convection zone. We discuss the features of these regimes and compare them with the observed features of evolution of the solar and geo magnetic fields. We built theoretical paleomagnetic time scale and butterfly-diagrams for the helicity and toroidal magnetic field for different regimes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JPhCS.475a2010M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JPhCS.475a2010M">A non-linear irreversible thermodynamic perspective on organic pigment proliferation and biological evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Michaelian, K. 2013-12-01 The most important thermodynamic work performed by life today is the dissipation of the solar photon flux into heat through organic pigments in water. From this thermodynamic perspective, biological evolution is thus just the dispersal of organic pigments and water throughout Earth's surface, while adjusting the gases of Earth's atmosphere to allow the most intense part of the solar spectrum to penetrate the atmosphere and reach the surface to be intercepted by these pigments. The covalent bonding of atoms in organic pigments provides excited levels compatible with the energies of these photons. Internal conversion through vibrational relaxation to the ground state of these excited molecules when in water leads to rapid dissipation of the solar photons into heat, and this is the major source of entropy production on Earth. A non-linear irreversible thermodynamic analysis shows that the proliferation of organic pigments on Earth is a direct consequence of the pigments catalytic properties in dissipating the solar photon flux. A small part of the energy of the photon goes into the production of more organic pigments and supporting biomass, while most of the energy is dissipated and channeled into the hydrological cycle through the latent heat of vaporization of surface water. By dissipating the surface to atmosphere temperature gradient, the hydrological cycle further increases the entropy production of Earth. This thermodynamic perspective of solar photon dissipation by life has implications to the possibility of finding extra-terrestrial life in our solar system and the Universe. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1130473','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1130473">Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070001986&hterms=Vantage&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DVantage','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070001986&hterms=Vantage&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DVantage">The Heliosphere Through the Solar Activity Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Balogh, A.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Suess, S. T. 2006-01-01 Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2126M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2126M">Temporal Evolution of Spectral and Angular Characteristics of SEP Particles during Several GLEs of Solar Cycle 23 Derived from NM Data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mishev, Alexander; Usoskin, Ilya; Kocharov, Leon High-energy charged particles of solar origin could represent a severe radiation risk for astronauts and air crew. In addition, they could disrupt technological systems. When a ground-based neutron monitor register abrupt increases in solar energetic particles (SEPs), we observe a special case of solar energetic particle event, a ground-level enhancement (GLE). In order to derive the spectral and angular characteristics of GLE particles a precise computation of solar energetic particle propagation in the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere is necessary. It consists of detailed computation of assymptotic cones for neutron monitors (NMs) and application of inverse method using the newly computed neutron monitor yield function. Assymptotic directions are computed using the Planetocosmics code and realistic magnetospheric models, namely IGRF as the internal model and Tsyganenko 89 with the corresponding Kp index as the external one. The inverse problem solution is performed on the basis of non-linear least squares method, namely Levenberg-Marqurdt. In the study presented here, we analyse several major GLEs of the solar cycle 23 as well as the first GLE event of the solar cycle 24, namely GLE69, GLE70 and GLE 71. The SEP spectra and pitch angle distribution are obtained at different momenta since the event's onset. The obtained characteristics are compared with previously reported results. The obtained results are briefly discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22521920-effects-large-scale-non-axisymmetric-perturbations-mean-field-solar-dynamo','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22521920-effects-large-scale-non-axisymmetric-perturbations-mean-field-solar-dynamo">EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE NON-AXISYMMETRIC PERTURBATIONS IN THE MEAN-FIELD SOLAR DYNAMO</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G. 2015-11-10 We explore the response of a nonlinear non-axisymmetric mean-field solar dynamo model to shallow non-axisymmetric perturbations. After a relaxation period, the amplitude of the non-axisymmetric field depends on the initial condition, helicity conservation, and the depth of perturbation. It is found that a perturbation that is anchored at 0.9 R{sub ⊙} has a profound effect on the dynamo process, producing a transient magnetic cycle of the axisymmetric magnetic field, if it is initiated at the growing phase of the cycle. The non-symmetric, with respect to the equator, perturbation results in a hemispheric asymmetry of the magnetic activity. The evolution ofmore » the axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric fields depends on the turbulent magnetic Reynolds number R{sub m}. In the range of R{sub m} = 10{sup 4}–10{sup 6} the evolution returns to the normal course in the next cycle, in which the non-axisymmetric field is generated due to a nonlinear α-effect and magnetic buoyancy. In the stationary state, the large-scale magnetic field demonstrates a phenomenon of “active longitudes” with cyclic 180° “flip-flop” changes of the large-scale magnetic field orientation. The flip-flop effect is known from observations of solar and stellar magnetic cycles. However, this effect disappears in the model, which includes the meridional circulation pattern determined by helioseismology. The rotation rate of the non-axisymmetric field components varies during the relaxation period and carries important information about the dynamo process.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860025684&hterms=radiation+Solar&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dradiation%2BSolar','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19860025684&hterms=radiation+Solar&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dradiation%2BSolar">Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F. 1985-01-01 Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22667178-long-term-trends-solar-wind-proton-measurements','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22667178-long-term-trends-solar-wind-proton-measurements"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E. We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship,more » we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH52A..07K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH52A..07K">Identifying open magnetic field regions of the Sun and their heliospheric counterparts</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Krista, L. D.; Reinard, A. 2017-12-01 Open magnetic regions on the Sun are either long-lived (coronal holes) or transient (dimmings) in nature. Both phenomena are fundamental to our understanding of the solar behavior as a whole. Coronal holes are the sources of high-speed solar wind streams that cause recurrent geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, the variation of coronal hole properties (area, location, magnetic field strength) over the solar activity cycle is an important marker of the global evolution of the solar magnetic field. Dimming regions, on the other hand, are short-lived coronal holes that often emerge in the wake of solar eruptions. By analyzing their physical properties and their temporal evolution, we aim to understand their connection with their eruptive counterparts (flares and coronal mass ejections) and predict the possibility of a geomagnetic storm. The author developed the Coronal Hole Automated Recognition and Monitoring (CHARM) and the Coronal Dimming Tracker (CoDiT) algorithms. These tools not only identify but track the evolution of open magnetic field regions. CHARM also provides daily coronal hole maps, that are used for forecasts at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Our goal is to better understand the processes that give rise to eruptive and non-eruptive open field regions and investigate how these regions evolve over time and influence space weather. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11359010','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11359010">Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hodell, D A; Brenner, M; Curtis, J H; Guilderson, T 2001-05-18 We analyzed lake-sediment cores from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, to reconstruct the climate history of the region over the past 2600 years. Time series analysis of sediment proxies, which are sensitive to the changing ratio of evaporation to precipitation (oxygen isotopes and gypsum precipitation), reveal a recurrent pattern of drought with a dominant periodicity of 208 years. This cycle is similar to the documented 206-year period in records of cosmogenic nuclide production (carbon-14 and beryllium-10) that is thought to reflect variations in solar activity. We conclude that a significant component of century-scale variability in Yucatan droughts is explained by solar forcing. Furthermore, some of the maxima in the 208-year drought cycle correspond with discontinuities in Maya cultural evolution, suggesting that the Maya were affected by these bicentennial oscillations in precipitation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850002589','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850002589">Structure and evolution of the large scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. Ph.D. Thesis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hoeksema, J. T. 1984-01-01 Structure and evolution of large scale photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in the interval 1976-1983 were studied using observations from the Stanford Solar Observatory and a potential field model. The solar wind in the heliosphere is organized into large regions in which the magnetic field has a componenet either toward or away from the sun. The model predicts the location of the current sheet separating these regions. Near solar minimum, in 1976, the current sheet lay within a few degrees of the solar equator having two extensions north and south of the equator. Soon after minimum the latitudinal extent began to increase. The sheet reached to at least 50 deg from 1978 through 1983. The complex structure near maximum occasionally included multiple current sheets. Large scale structures persist for up to two years during the entire interval. To minimize errors in determining the structure of the heliospheric field particular attention was paid to decreasing the distorting effects of rapid field evolution, finding the optimum source surface radius, determining the correction to the sun's polar field, and handling missing data. The predicted structure agrees with direct interplanetary field measurements taken near the ecliptic and with coronameter and interplanetary scintillation measurements which infer the three dimensional interplanetary magnetic structure. During most of the solar cycle the heliospheric field cannot be adequately described as a dipole. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.tmp.1572G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.tmp.1572G">Magnetic Evolution Linked to the Interrelated Activity Complexes Involving Transequatorial Coronal Holes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gutiérrez, Heidy; Taliashvili, Lela; Lazarian, Alexandre 2018-06-01 We studied a magnetic evolution linked to a cadence of interrelated activities developed in a large solar region during Carrington rotations, CRs 2119 - 2121, based on multi-wavelength and multi-spacecraft observations. Three coronal holes (CHs), two transequatorial and one isolated, eight filaments and some active regions were distributed closely in the region. Every of these filaments partial and/or complete eruption was linked to a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or coronal jet. We found different types of interrelated activities: eruptions of three pairs of interrelated filaments close to a CH and eruptions of two filaments close to the active region and CH. Some indicators of the magnetic reconnection were observed frequently during the pre- as well as post-filament eruptions. Additionally, post-filament eruption and/or post-CME processes show their implication in the evolution of nearby CHs and newly formed transient CHs or dimming regions, including a new CH formation. We discussed the small- and large-scale magnetic reconfigurations associated with these interrelated activity complexes, the ones involving long-lived transequatorial CHs, and their possible implication in the evolution of the global solar magnetic field, especially with the starting processes of quadruple configuration and polarity reversal of the solar cycle 24. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730002039','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19730002039">Large-scale properties of the interplanetary magnetic field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, K. H. 1972-01-01 Early theoretical work of Parker is presented along with the observational evidence supporting his Archimedes spiral model. Variations present in the interplanetary magnetic field from the spiral angle are related to structures in the solar wind. The causes of these structures are found to be either nonuniform radial solar wind flow or the time evolution of the photospheric field. Coronal magnetic models are related to the connection between the solar magnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field. Direct extension of the solar field-magnetic nozzle controversy is discussed along with the coronal magnetic models. Effects of active regions on the interplanetary magnetic field is discussed with particular reference to the evolution of interplanetary sectors. Interplanetary magnetic field magnitude variations are shown throughout the solar cycle. The percentage of time the field magnitude is greater than 10 gamma is shown to closely parallel sunspot number. The sun's polar field influence on the interplanetary field and alternative views of the magnetic field structure out of the ecliptic plane are presented. In addition, a variety of significantly different interplanetary field structures are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27445419','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27445419">A Different View of Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations: Modeling Total Energy over Six-Month Intervals.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Woods, Thomas N; Snow, Martin; Harder, Jerald; Chapman, Gary; Cookson, Angela A different approach to studying solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variations, without the need for long-term (multi-year) instrument degradation corrections, is examining the total energy of the irradiance variation during 6-month periods. This duration is selected because a solar active region typically appears suddenly and then takes 5 to 7 months to decay and disperse back into the quiet-Sun network. The solar outburst energy, which is defined as the irradiance integrated over the 6-month period and thus includes the energy from all phases of active region evolution, could be considered the primary cause for the irradiance variations. Because solar cycle variation is the consequence of multiple active region outbursts, understanding the energy spectral variation may provide a reasonable estimate of the variations for the 11-year solar activity cycle. The moderate-term (6-month) variations from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments can be decomposed into positive (in-phase with solar cycle) and negative (out-of-phase) contributions by modeling the variations using the San Fernando Observatory (SFO) facular excess and sunspot deficit proxies, respectively. These excess and deficit variations are fit over 6-month intervals every 2 months over the mission, and these fitted variations are then integrated over time for the 6-month energy. The dominant component indicates which wavelengths are in-phase and which are out-of-phase with solar activity. The results from this study indicate out-of-phase variations for the 1400 - 1600 nm range, with all other wavelengths having in-phase variations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663569-variation-supergranule-parameters-solar-cycles-results-from-century-long-kodaikanal-digitized-ca-ii-data','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663569-variation-supergranule-parameters-solar-cycles-results-from-century-long-kodaikanal-digitized-ca-ii-data">Variation of Supergranule Parameters with Solar Cycles: Results from Century-long Kodaikanal Digitized Ca ii K Data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Mandal, Sudip; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in The Ca ii K spectroheliograms spanning over a century (1907–2007) from Kodaikanal Solar Observatory, India, have recently been digitized and calibrated. Applying a fully automated algorithm (which includes contrast enhancement and the “Watershed method”) to these data, we have identified the supergranules and calculated the associated parameters, such as scale, circularity, and fractal dimension. We have segregated the quiet and active regions and obtained the supergranule parameters separately for these two domains. In this way, we have isolated the effect of large-scale and small-scale magnetic fields on these structures and find a significantly different behavior of the supergranule parameters overmore » solar cycles. These differences indicate intrinsic changes in the physical mechanism behind the generation and evolution of supergranules in the presence of small-scale and large-scale magnetic fields. This also highlights the need for further studies using solar dynamo theory along with magneto-convection models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...850..164D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...850..164D">Evolution of Proton and Alpha Particle Velocities through the Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ďurovcová, T.; Šafránková, J.; Němeček, Z.; Richardson, J. D. 2017-12-01 Relative properties of solar wind protons and α particles are often used as indicators of a source region on the solar surface, and analysis of their evolution along the solar wind path tests our understanding of physics of multicomponent magnetized plasma. The paper deals with the comprehensive analysis of the difference between proton and α particle bulk velocities at 1 au with a special emphasis on interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). A comparison of about 20 years of Wind observations at 1 au with Helios measurements closer to the Sun (0.3-0.7 au) generally confirms the present knowledge that (1) the differential speed between both species increases with the proton speed; (2) the differential speed is lower than the local Alfvén speed; (3) α particles are faster than protons near the Sun, and this difference decreases with the increasing distance. However, we found a much larger portion of observations with protons faster than α particles in Wind than in Helios data and attributed this effect to a preferential acceleration of the protons in the solar wind. A distinct population characterized by a very small differential velocity and nearly equal proton and α particle temperatures that is frequently observed around the maximum of solar activity was attributed to ICMEs. Since this population does not exhibit any evolution with increasing collisional age, we suggest that, by contrast to the solar wind from other sources, ICMEs are born in an equilibrium state and gradually lose this equilibrium due to interactions with the ambient solar wind. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH53B2500K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH53B2500K">Polarity Comparison Between the Coronal PFSS Model Field and the Heliospheric Magnetic Field at 1 AU Over Solar Cycles 21-24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Koskela, J. S.; Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K. 2015-12-01 The solar coronal magnetic field forms an important link between the underlying source in the solar photosphere and the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF). The coronal field has traditionally been calculated from the photospheric observations using various magnetic field models between the photosphere and the corona, in particular the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Despite its simplicity, the predictions of the PFSS model generally agree quite well with the heliospheric observations and match very well with the predictions of more elaborate models. We make here a detailed comparison between the predictions of the PFSS model with the HMF field observed at 1 AU. We use the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory, SDO/HMI, SOHO/MDI and SOLIS, and the heliospheric magnetic field measurements at 1 AU collected within the OMNI 2 dataset. This database covers the solar cycles 21-24. We use different source surface distances and different numbers of harmonic components for the PFSS model. We find an optimum polarity match between the coronal field and the HMF for source surface distance of 3.5 Rs. Increasing the number of harmonic components beyond the quadrupole does not essentially improve polarity agreement, indicating that the large scale structure of the HMF at 1 AU is responsible for the agreement while the small scale structure is greatly modified between corona and 1 AU. We also discuss the solar cycle evolution of polarity match and find that the PFSS model prediction is most reliable during the declining phase of the solar cycle. We also find large differences in match percentage between northern and southern hemispheres during the times of systematic southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the Bashful ballerina). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950042601&hterms=polar+bear&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dpolar%2Bbear','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950042601&hterms=polar+bear&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dpolar%2Bbear">High-resolution observations of the polar magnetic fields of the sun</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lin, H.; Varsik, J.; Zirin, H. 1994-01-01 High-resolution magnetograms of the solar polar region were used for the study of the polar magnetic field. In contrast to low-resolution magnetograph observations which measure the polar magnetic field averaged over a large area, we focused our efforts on the properties of the small magnetic elements in the polar region. Evolution of the filling factor (the ratio of the area occupied by the magnetic elements to the total area) of these magnetic elements, as well as the average magnetic field strength, were studied during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22, from early 1991 to mid-1993. We found that during the sunspot maximum period, the polar regions were occupied by about equal numbers of positive and negative magnetic elements, with equal average field strength. As the solar cycle progresses toward sunspot minimum, the magnetic field elements in the polar region become predominantly of one polarity. The average magnetic field of the dominant polarity elements also increases with the filling factor. In the meanwhile, both the filling factor and the average field strength of the non-dominant polarity elements decrease. The combined effects of the changing filling factors and average field strength produce the observed evolution of the integrated polar flux over the solar cycle. We compared the evolutionary histories of both filling factor and average field strength, for regions of high (70-80 deg) and low (60-70 deg) latitudes. For the south pole, we found no significant evidence of difference in the time of reversal. However, the low-latitude region of the north pole did reverse polarity much earlier than the high-latitude region. It later showed an oscillatory behavior. We suggest this may be caused by the poleward migration of flux from a large active region in 1989 with highly imbalanced flux. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018FrASS...5....4K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018FrASS...5....4K">Production of sunspots and their effects on the corona and solar wind: Insights from a new 3D flux-transport dynamo model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kumar, Rohit; Jouve, Laurène; Pinto, Rui F.; Rouillard, Alexis P. 2018-01-01 We present a three-dimensional numerical model for the generation and evolution of the magnetic field in the solar convection zone, in which sunspots are produced and contribute to the cyclic reversal of the large-scale magnetic field. We then assess the impact of this dynamo-generated field on the structure of the solar corona and solar wind. This model solves the induction equation in which the velocity field is prescribed. This velocity field is a combination of a solar-like differential rotation and meridional circulation. We develop an algorithm that enables the magnetic flux produced in the interior to be buoyantly transported towards the surface to produce bipolar spots. We find that those tilted bipolar magnetic regions contain a sufficient amount of flux to periodically reverse the polar magnetic field and sustain dynamo action. We then track the evolution of these magnetic features at the surface during a few consecutive magnetic cycles and analyze their effects on the topology of the corona and on properties of the solar wind (distribution of streamers and coronal holes, and of slow and fast wind streams) in connection with current observations of the Sun. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GPC...100..129L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GPC...100..129L">Evolution of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the late Holocene and insolation driven change in the tropical annual SST cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Loubere, Paul; Creamer, Winifred; Haas, Jonathan 2013-01-01 South American lake sediment records indicate that El Nino events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) became more frequent after 3000 calendar years BP. The reason for this evolution of ENSO behavior remains in question. An important trigger for ocean-atmosphere state switching in the tropical ocean is the annual cycle of sea surface temperature south of the equator along the margin of South America. This annual cycle can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotope records of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. We provide evidence that these isotope records, as preserved in archeological deposits in coastal central Peru, reflect seasonal paleo-SST. We find that the annual SST cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific became larger over the 4500-2500 calendar year BP interval. This is consistent with increased ENSO variability. The magnification of the annual SST cycle can be attributed to changing insolation, indicating that ENSO is sensitive to the intensity and seasonal timing of solar heating of the southern EEP. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920019250&hterms=water+cycle&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bcycle','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920019250&hterms=water+cycle&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bcycle">The Mars water cycle at other epochs: History of the polar caps and layered terrain</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Jakosky, Bruce M.; Henderson, Bradley G.; Mellon, Michael T. 1992-01-01 The atmospheric water cycle at the present epoch involves summertime sublimation of water from the north polar cap, transport of water through the atmosphere, and condensation on one or both winter CO2 caps. Exchange with the regolith is important seasonally, but the water content of the atmosphere appears to be controlled by the polar caps. The net annual transport through the atmosphere, integrated over long timescales, must be the driving force behind the long-term evolution of the polar caps; clearly, this feeds back into the evolution of the layered terrain. We have investigated the behavior of the seasonal water cycle and the net integrated behavior at the pole for the last 10 exp 7 years. Our model of the water cycle includes the solar input, CO2 condensation and sublimation, and summertime water sublimation through the seasonal cycles, and incorporates the long-term variations in the orbital elements describing the Martian orbit. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1379596-probing-phase-transformations-microstructural-evolutions-small-scales-synchrotron-ray-microdiffraction-advanced-applications-phase-memory-ic-integrated-circuits-solar-pv-photovoltaic-devices','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1379596-probing-phase-transformations-microstructural-evolutions-small-scales-synchrotron-ray-microdiffraction-advanced-applications-phase-memory-ic-integrated-circuits-solar-pv-photovoltaic-devices">Probing Phase Transformations and Microstructural Evolutions at the Small Scales: Synchrotron X-ray Microdiffraction for Advanced Applications in [Phase 3 Memory,] 3D IC (Integrated Circuits) and Solar PV (Photovoltaic) Devices</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Radchenko, I.; Tippabhotla, S. K.; Tamura, N. 2016-10-21 Synchrotron x-ray microdiffraction (μXRD) allows characterization of a crystalline material in small, localized volumes. Phase composition, crystal orientation and strain can all be probed in few-second time scales. Crystalline changes over a large areas can be also probed in a reasonable amount of time with submicron spatial resolution. However, despite all the listed capabilities, μXRD is mostly used to study pure materials but its application in actual device characterization is rather limited. This article will explore the recent developments of the μXRD technique illustrated with its advanced applications in microelectronic devices and solar photovoltaic systems. Application of μXRD in microelectronicsmore » will be illustrated by studying stress and microstructure evolution in Cu TSV (through silicon via) during and after annealing. Here, the approach allowing study of the microstructural evolution in the solder joint of crystalline Si solar cells due to thermal cycling will be also demonstrated.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818200M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818200M">Rebirth of the Bashful ballerina</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo 2016-04-01 Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1370M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1370M">Bashful ballerina: Multi-instrument verification and recent behaviour</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, Kalevi; Virtanen, Ilpo 2016-07-01 Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is the continuation of the coronal magnetic equator into space, dividing the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) into two sectors. Because of its wavy structure, the HCS is also called the ballerina skirt. Several recent studies have proven that the HCS is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining to minimum phase. This persistent phenomenon, now called the Bashful ballerina, has been seen in geomagnetic indices since 1930s, OMNI data since 1960s, WSO data since mid-1970s and in Ulysses probe measurements during the fast latitude scans in 1994-1995 and 2007. Here we study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet since 1975 using synoptic maps from six observatories (WSO, MWO, Kitt Peak, SOLIS, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI). All data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, and agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet during all the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20 -- 22, the southward shift of the HCS is due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is, again, due to the axial quadrupole, repeating the pattern of most previous cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150023385&hterms=pathways&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dpathways','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150023385&hterms=pathways&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dpathways">Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Mitchell, D.M.; Misios, S.; Gray, L. J.; Tourpali, K.; Matthes, K.; Hood, L.; Schmidt, H.; Chiodo, G.; Thieblemont, R.; Rozanov, E.; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20150023385'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20150023385_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20150023385_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20150023385_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20150023385_hide"> 2015-01-01 The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26246410','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26246410">Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela 2015-08-06 The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...512851M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...512851M">Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela 2015-08-01 The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr-1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4526942','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4526942">Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela 2015-01-01 The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr−1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19870011493','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19870011493">The association of chromospheric and coronal phenomena with the evolution of the quiet sun magnetic fields</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Harvey, Karen L.; Tang, Frances; Gaizauskas, Victor 1986-01-01 Using daily full-disk magnetograms and He I 10830 spectroheliograms to study the count and surface distribution of ephemeral regions over the solar cycle, Harvey (1985) concluded that the small dark structures seen in 10830, thought to correspond to X-ray bright points, were more often associated with magnetic bipoles that appeared to result from an encounter of already existing opposite polarity magentic flux than with emerging small magnetic bipoles (ephemeral regions). Such encounters would be more likely to occur in areas of mixed polarity. The fractional area of the sun covered by mixed polarity fields varies anti-correlated with the solar cycle leading to a possible explanation for the 180 degrees out of phase solar cycle variation of X-ray bright points. To establish the validity of this suggestion, a detailed study of time-sequence magnetic field, He I wavelength 10830, Ha, C IV, and Si II observations of selected areas of the quiet sun was initiated about 2 years ago. The preliminary results of this study are reported. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22679551-analysis-coronal-rain-observed-iris-hinode-sot-sdo-aia-transverse-oscillations-kinematics-thermal-evolution','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22679551-analysis-coronal-rain-observed-iris-hinode-sot-sdo-aia-transverse-oscillations-kinematics-thermal-evolution">ANALYSIS OF CORONAL RAIN OBSERVED BY IRIS , HINODE /SOT, AND SDO /AIA: TRANSVERSE OSCILLATIONS, KINEMATICS, AND THERMAL EVOLUTION</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Kohutova, P.; Verwichte, E., E-mail: p.kohutova@warwick.ac.uk Coronal rain composed of cool plasma condensations falling from coronal heights along magnetic field lines is a phenomenon occurring mainly in active region coronal loops. Recent high-resolution observations have shown that coronal rain is much more common than previously thought, suggesting its important role in the chromosphere-corona mass cycle. We present the analysis of MHD oscillations and kinematics of the coronal rain observed in chromospheric and transition region lines by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) , the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT), and the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). Two different regimes of transverse oscillationsmore » traced by the rain are detected: small-scale persistent oscillations driven by a continuously operating process and localized large-scale oscillations excited by a transient mechanism. The plasma condensations are found to move with speeds ranging from few km s{sup −1} up to 180 km s{sup −1} and with accelerations largely below the free-fall rate, likely explained by pressure effects and the ponderomotive force resulting from the loop oscillations. The observed evolution of the emission in individual SDO /AIA bandpasses is found to exhibit clear signatures of a gradual cooling of the plasma at the loop top. We determine the temperature evolution of the coronal loop plasma using regularized inversion to recover the differential emission measure (DEM) and by forward modeling the emission intensities in the SDO /AIA bandpasses using a two-component synthetic DEM model. The inferred evolution of the temperature and density of the plasma near the apex is consistent with the limit cycle model and suggests the loop is going through a sequence of periodically repeating heating-condensation cycles.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IAUS..325..357M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IAUS..325..357M">PERICLES: a knowledge management programme applied to solar data from International Space Station-Columbus</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Muller, Christian; PERICLES Consortium 2017-06-01 The FP-7 (Framework Programme 7 of the European Union) PERICLES project addresses the life-cycle of large and complex data sets to cater for the evolution of context of data sets and user communities, including groups unanticipated when the data was created. Semantics of data sets are thus also expected to evolve and the project includes elements which could address the reuse of data sets at periods where the data providers and even their institutions are not available any more. This paper presents the PERICLES science case with the example of the SOLAR (SOLAR monitoring observatory) payload on International Space Station-Columbus. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1414N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1414N">Non-Stationary Effects and Cross Correlations in Solar Activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nefedyev, Yuri; Panischev, Oleg; Demin, Sergey 2016-07-01 In this paper within the framework of the Flicker-Noise Spectroscopy (FNS) we consider the dynamic properties of the solar activity by analyzing the Zurich sunspot numbers. As is well-known astrophysics objects are the non-stationary open systems, whose evolution are the quite individual and have the alternation effects. The main difference of FNS compared to other related methods is the separation of the original signal reflecting the dynamics of solar activity into three frequency bands: system-specific "resonances" and their interferential contributions at lower frequencies, chaotic "random walk" ("irregularity-jump") components at larger frequencies, and chaotic "irregularity-spike" (inertial) components in the highest frequency range. Specific parameters corresponding to each of the bands are introduced and calculated. These irregularities as well as specific resonance frequencies are considered as the information carriers on every hierarchical level of the evolution of a complex natural system with intermittent behavior, consecutive alternation of rapid chaotic changes in the values of dynamic variables on small time intervals with small variations of the values on longer time intervals ("laminar" phases). The jump and spike irregularities are described by power spectra and difference moments (transient structural functions) of the second order. FNS allows revealing the most crucial points of the solar activity dynamics by means of "spikiness" factor. It is shown that this variable behaves as the predictor of crucial changes of the sunspot number dynamics, particularly when the number comes up to maximum value. The change of averaging interval allows revealing the non-stationary effects depending by 11-year cycle and by inside processes in a cycle. To consider the cross correlations between the different variables of solar activity we use the Zurich sunspot numbers and the sequence of corona's radiation energy. The FNS-approach allows extracting the information about cross correlation dynamics between the signals from separate points of the studied system. The 3D cross correlators and their plain projections allow revealing the periodic laws of solar evolution. Work was supported by grants RFBR 15-02-01638-a and 16-02-00496-a. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22661454-tracking-solar-cycle-through-ibex-observations-energetic-neutral-atom-flux-variations-heliospheric-poles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22661454-tracking-solar-cycle-through-ibex-observations-energetic-neutral-atom-flux-variations-heliospheric-poles">TRACKING THE SOLAR CYCLE THROUGH IBEX OBSERVATIONS OF ENERGETIC NEUTRAL ATOM FLUX VARIATIONS AT THE HELIOSPHERIC POLES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Reisenfeld, D. B.; Janzen, P. H.; Bzowski, M., E-mail: dan.reisenfeld@umontana.edu, E-mail: paul.janzen@umontana.edu, E-mail: bzowski@cbk.waw.pl With seven years of Interstellar Boundary Explorer ( IBEX ) observations, from 2009 to 2015, we can now trace the time evolution of heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) through over half a solar cycle. At the north and south ecliptic poles, the spacecraft attitude allows for continuous coverage of the ENA flux; thus, signal from these regions has much higher statistical accuracy and time resolution than anywhere else in the sky. By comparing the solar wind dynamic pressure measured at 1 au with the heliosheath plasma pressure derived from the observed ENA fluxes, we show that the heliosheath pressure measuredmore » at the poles correlates well with the solar cycle. The analysis requires time-shifting the ENA measurements to account for the travel time out and back from the heliosheath, which allows us to estimate the scale size of the heliosphere in the polar directions. We arrive at an estimated distance to the center of the ENA source region in the north of 220 au and in the south a distance of 190 au. We also find a good correlation between the solar cycle and the ENA energy spectra at the poles. In particular, the ENA flux for the highest IBEX energy channel (4.3 keV) is quite closely correlated with the areas of the polar coronal holes, in both the north and south, consistent with the notion that polar ENAs at this energy originate from pickup ions of the very high speed wind (∼700 km s{sup −1}) that emanates from polar coronal holes.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6745Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6745Y">A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter 2015-04-01 The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ApJ...781...99V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ApJ...781...99V">North-South Asymmetric Solar Cycle Evolution: Signatures in the Photosphere and Consequences in the Corona</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K. 2014-02-01 The heliospheric current sheet is the continuum of the coronal magnetic equator that divides the heliospheric magnetic field into two sectors (polarities). Several recent studies have shown that the heliospheric current sheet is southward shifted during approximately 3 years in the solar declining phase (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon). In this article we study the hemispherical asymmetry in the photospheric and coronal magnetic fields using Wilcox Solar Observatory measurements of the photospheric magnetic field since 1976 as well as the potential field source surface model. Multipole analysis of the photospheric magnetic field shows that during the late declining phase of solar cycles since the 1970s, the "bashful ballerina phenomenon" is a consequence of the g^{0}_{2} quadrupole term, signed oppositely to the dipole moment. Surges of new flux transport magnetic field from low latitudes to the poles, thus leading to a systematically varying contribution to the g^{0}_{2}-term from different latitudes. In the case of a north-south asymmetric flux production, this is seen as a quadrupole contribution traveling toward higher latitudes. When the quadrupole term is largest, the main contribution comes from the polar latitudes. At least during the four recent solar cycles, the g^{0}_{2}-term arises because the magnitude of the southern polar field is larger than the magnitude found in the north in the declining phase of the cycle. In the heliosphere this hemispheric asymmetry of the coronal fields is seen as a southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet by about 2°. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH23A2082S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH23A2082S">Simulating Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Magnetic Fields using a Potential Field Source Surface Model Coupled with a Dynamo Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Suresh, A.; Dikpati, M.; Burkepile, J.; de Toma, G. 2013-12-01 The structure of the Sun's corona varies with solar cycle, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. Why does this pattern occur? It is widely accepted that large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields, which are most likely generated by the dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential field source surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation and above the photosphere these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona by using a potential field source surface model. Under the assumption of axisymmetry, the large-scale poloidal fields can be written in terms of the curl of a vector potential. Since from the photosphere and above the magnetic diffusivity is essentially infinite, the evolution of the vector potential is given by Laplace's Equation, the solution of which is obtained in the form of a first order Associated Legendre Polynomial. By taking linear combinations of these polynomial terms, we find solutions that match more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986-1991), we compute the coefficients of the Associated Legendre Polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observation. We reproduce some previous results that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but that this term fades with the progress of the cycle and higher order multipole terms begin to dominate. We find that the amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same in the two limbs, indicating that there is some phi dependence. Furthermore, by comparing the solar minimum corona during the past three minima (1986, 1996, and 2008), we find that, while both the 1986 and 1996 minima were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, as there was departure from a dipole. In order to investigate the physical cause of this departure from dipole, we implement north-south asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our model, and find that such n/s asymmetry in solar cycle could be one of the reasons for this departure. This work is partially supported by NASA's LWS grant with award number NNX08AQ34G. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSWSC...7A..34D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSWSC...7A..34D">Statistical properties of solar Hα flare activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Deng, Linhua; Zhang, Xiaojuan; An, Jianmei; Cai, Yunfang 2017-12-01 Magnetic field structures on the solar atmosphere are not symmetric distribution in the northern and southern hemispheres, which is an important aspect of quasi-cyclical evolution of magnetic activity indicators that are related to solar dynamo theories. Three standard analysis techniques are applied to analyze the hemispheric coupling (north-south asymmetry and phase asynchrony) of monthly averaged values of solar Hα flare activity over the past 49 years (from 1966 January to 2014 December). The prominent results are as follows: (1) from a global point of view, solar Hα flare activity on both hemispheres are strongly correlated with each other, but the northern hemisphere precedes the southern one with a phase shift of 7 months; (2) the long-range persistence indeed exists in solar Hα flare activity, but the dynamical complexities in the two hemispheres are not identical; (3) the prominent periodicities of Hα flare activity are 17 years full-disk activity cycle and 11 years Schwabe solar cycle, but the short- and mid-term periodicities cannot determined by monthly time series; (4) by comparing the non-parametric rescaling behavior on a point-by-point basis, the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Hα flare activity are estimated to be ranging from several months to tens of months with an average value of 8.7 months. The analysis results could promote our knowledge on the long-range persistence, the quasi-periodic variation, and the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Hα flare activity on both hemispheres, and possibly provide valuable information for the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930049584&hterms=lazarus&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAuthor-Name%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dlazarus','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930049584&hterms=lazarus&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAuthor-Name%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dlazarus">Global properties of the plasma in the outer heliosphere. I - Large-scale structure and evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Gazis, P. R.; Lazarus, A. J.; Belcher, J. W.; Gordon, G. S., Jr.; Mcnutt, R. L., Jr. 1992-01-01 Pioneers 10 and 11, and Voyager 2, have active plasma analyzers as they proceed through heliocentric distances of the order of 30-50 AU, facilitating comparative studies of the global character of the outer solar wind and its variation over the solar cycle. Careful study of these data show that wind ion temperature remains constant beyond 15 AU, and that there may be large-scale variations of temperature with celestial longitude and heliographic latitude. There has thus far been no indication of a heliospheric terminal shock. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...587A..33D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...587A..33D">Variation of the Mn I 539.4 nm line with the solar cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Danilovic, S.; Solanki, S. K.; Livingston, W.; Krivova, N.; Vince, I. 2016-03-01 Context. As a part of the long-term program at Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO), the Mn I 539.4 nm line has been observed for nearly three solar cycles using the McMath telescope and the 13.5 m spectrograph in double-pass mode. These full-disk spectrophotometric observations revealed an unusually strong change of this line's parameters over the solar cycle. Aims: Optical pumping by the Mg II k line was originally proposed to explain these variations. More recent studies have proposed that this is not required and that the magnetic variability (I.e., the changes in solar atmospheric structure due to faculae) might explain these changes. Magnetic variability is also the mechanism that drives the changes in total solar irradiance variations (TSI). With this work we investigate this proposition quantitatively by using the same model that was earlier successfully employed to reconstruct the irradiance. Methods: We reconstructed the changes in the line parameters using the model SATIRE-S, which takes only variations of the daily surface distribution of the magnetic field into account. We applied exactly the same model atmospheres and value of the free parameter as were used in previous solar irradiance reconstructions to now model the variation in the Mn I 539.4 nm line profile and in neighboring Fe I lines. We compared the results of the theoretical model with KPNO observations. Results: The changes in the Mn I 539.4 nm line and a neighbouring Fe I 539.52 nm line over approximately three solar cycles are reproduced well by the model without additionally tweaking the model parameters, if changes made to the instrument setup are taken into account. The model slightly overestimates the change for the strong Fe I 539.32 nm line. Conclusions: Our result confirms that optical pumping of the Mn II 539.4 nm line by Mg II k is not the main cause of its solar cycle change. It also provides independent confirmation of solar irradiance models which are based on the assumption that irradiance variations are caused by the evolution of the solar surface magnetic flux. The result obtained here also supports the spectral irradiance variations computed by these models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950045218&hterms=lazarus&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAuthor-Name%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dlazarus','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950045218&hterms=lazarus&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAuthor-Name%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dlazarus">Radial evolution of the solar wind from IMP 8 to Voyager 2</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richardson, John D.; Paularena, Karolen I.; Lazarus, Alan J.; Belcher, John W. 1995-01-01 Voyager 2 and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 data from 1977 through 1994 are presented and compared. Radial velocity and temperature structures remain intact over the distance from 1 to 43 AU, but density structures do not. Temperature and velocity changes are correlated and nearly in phase at 1 AU, but in the outer heliosphere temperature changes lead velocity changes by tens of days. Solar cycle variations are detected by both spacecraft, with minima in flux density and dynamic pressure near solar maxima. Differences between Voyager 2 and IMP 8 observations near the solar minimum in 1986-1987 are attributed to latitudinal gradients in solar wind properties. Solar rotation variations are often present even at 40 AU. The Voyager 2 temperature profile is best fit with a R(exp -0.49 +/- 0.01) decrease, much less steep than an adiabatic profile. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRA..122.2768L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRA..122.2768L">MAVEN observations of the solar cycle 24 space weather conditions at Mars</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Chamberlin, P.; Eparvier, F.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Dunn, P. A.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Curry, S. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M. 2017-03-01 The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft has been continuously observing the variability of solar soft X-rays and EUV irradiance, monitoring the upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions and measuring the fluxes of solar energetic ions and electrons since its arrival to Mars. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the space weather events observed during the first ˜1.9 years of the science mission, which includes the description of the solar and heliospheric sources of the space weather activity. To illustrate the variety of upstream conditions observed, we characterize a subset of the event periods by describing the Sun-to-Mars details using observations from the MAVEN solar Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor, solar energetic particle (SEP) instrument, Solar Wind Ion Analyzer, and Magnetometer together with solar observations using near-Earth assets and numerical solar wind simulation results from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil model for some global context of the event periods. The subset of events includes an extensive period of intense SEP electron particle fluxes triggered by a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejection (CME) activity in December 2014, the impact by a succession of interplanetary CMEs and their associated SEPs in March 2015, and the passage of a strong corotating interaction region (CIR) and arrival of the CIR shock-accelerated energetic particles in June 2015. However, in the context of the weaker heliospheric conditions observed throughout solar cycle 24, these events were moderate in comparison to the stronger storms observed previously at Mars. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21389307-origin-enhanced-activity-suns-m67','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21389307-origin-enhanced-activity-suns-m67">THE ORIGIN OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY IN THE SUNS OF M67</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Reiners, A.; Giampapa, M. S., E-mail: Ansgar.Reiners@phys.uni-goettingen.d, E-mail: giampapa@noao.ed 2009-12-10 We report the results of the analysis of high-resolution photospheric line spectra obtained with the UVES instrument on the VLT for a sample of 15 solar-type stars selected from a recent survey of the distribution of H and K chromospheric line strengths in the solar-age open cluster M67. We find upper limits to the projected rotation velocities that are consistent with solar-like rotation (i.e., v sin iapprox< 2-3 km s{sup -1}) for objects with Ca II chromospheric activity within the range of the contemporary solar cycle. Two solar-type stars in our sample exhibit chromospheric emission well in excess of evenmore » solar maximum values. In one case, Sanders 1452, we measure a minimum rotational velocity of v sin i = 4 +- 0.5 km s{sup -1}, or over twice the solar equatorial rotational velocity. The other star with enhanced activity, Sanders 747, is a spectroscopic binary. We conclude that high activity in solar-type stars in M67 that exceeds solar levels is likely due to more rapid rotation rather than an excursion in solar-like activity cycles to unusually high levels. We estimate an upper limit of 0.2% for the range of brightness changes occurring as a result of chromospheric activity in solar-type stars and, by inference, in the Sun itself. We discuss possible implications for our understanding of angular momentum evolution in solar-type stars, and we tentatively attribute the rapid rotation in Sanders 1452 to a reduced braking efficiency.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131502A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131502A">Statistical properties of correlated solar flares and coronal mass ejections in cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aarnio, Alicia 2018-01-01 Outstanding problems in understanding early stellar systems include mass loss, angular momentum evolution, and the effects of energetic events on the surrounding environs. The latter of these drives much research into our own system's space weather and the development of predictive algorithms for geomagnetic storms. So dually motivated, we have leveraged a big-data approach to combine two decades of GOES and LASCO data to identify a large sample of spatially and temporally correlated solar flares and CMEs. In this presentation, we revisit the analysis of Aarnio et al. (2011), adding 10 years of data and further exploring the relationships between correlated flare and CME properties. We compare the updated data set results to those previously obtained, and discuss the effects of selecting smaller time windows within solar cycles 23 and 24 on the empirically defined relationships between correlated flare and CME properties. Finally, we discuss a newly identified large sample of potentially interesting correlated flares and CMEs perhaps erroneously excluded from previous searches. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38..725T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38..725T">Planetary Evolution, Habitability and Life</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tilman, Spohn; Breuer, Doris; de Vera, Jean-Pierre; Jaumann, Ralf; Kuehrt, Ekkehard; Möhlmann, Diedrich; Rauer, Heike; Richter, Lutz A Helmholtz Alliance has been established to study the interactions between life and the evo-lution of planets. The approach goes beyond current studies in Earth-System Sciences by including the entire planet from the atmosphere to the deep interior, going beyond Earth to include other Earth-like planets such as Mars and Venus and satellites in the solar system where ecosystems may exist underneath thick ice shells,considering other solar systems. The approach includes studies of the importance of plate tectonics and other tectonic regimes such as single plate tectonics for the development and for sustaining life and asks the question: If life can adapt to a planet, can a planet adapt to life? Can life be seen as a geological process and if so, can life shape the conditions on a planet such that life can flourish? The vision goes beyond the solar system by including the challenges that life would face in other solar systems. The Alliance uses theoretical modelling of feedback cycles and coupled planetary atmosphere and interior processes. These models are based on the results of remote sensing of planetary surfaces and atmospheres, laboratory studies on (meteorite) samples from other planets and on studies of life under extreme conditions. The Alliance uses its unique capabilities in remote sensing and in-situ exploration to prepare for empirical studies of the parameters affecting habitability. The Alliance aims to establish a network infrastructure in Germany to enable the most ad-vanced research in planetary evolution studies by including life as a planetary process. Finding extraterrestrial life is a task of fundamental importance to mankind, and its fulfilment will be philosophically profound. Evaluating the interactions between planetary evolution and life will help to put the evolution of our home planet (even anthropogenic effects) into perspective. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850j0009G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850j0009G">Thermal tests of a multi-tubular reactor for hydrogen production by using mixed ferrites thermochemical cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gonzalez-Pardo, Aurelio; Denk, Thorsten; Vidal, Alfonso 2017-06-01 The SolH2 project is an INNPACTO initiative of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, with the main goal to demonstrate the technological feasibility of solar thermochemical water splitting cycles as one of the most promising options to produce H2 from renewable sources in an emission-free way. A multi-tubular solar reactor was designed and build to evaluate a ferrite thermochemical cycle. At the end of this project, the ownership of this plant was transferred to CIEMAT. This paper reviews some additional tests with this pilot plant performed in the Plataforma Solar de Almería with the main goal to assess the thermal behavior of the reactor, evaluating the evolution of the temperatures inside the cavity and the relation between supplied power and reached temperatures. Previous experience with alumina tubes showed that they are very sensitive to temperature and flux gradients, what leads to elaborate an aiming strategy for the heliostat field to achieve a uniform distribution of the radiation inside the cavity. Additionally, the passing of clouds is a phenomenon that importantly affects all the CSP facilities by reducing their efficiency. The behavior of the reactor under these conditions has been studied. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SPIE.9196E..0BV','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SPIE.9196E..0BV">Quantitative model of the effects of contamination and space environment on in-flight aging of thermal coatings</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Vanhove, Emilie; Roussel, Jean-François; Remaury, Stéphanie; Faye, Delphine; Guigue, Pascale 2014-09-01 The in-orbit aging of thermo-optical properties of thermal coatings critically impacts both spacecraft thermal balance and heating power consumption. Nevertheless, in-flight thermal coating aging is generally larger than the one measured on ground and the current knowledge does not allow making reliable predictions1. As a result, a large oversizing of thermal control systems is required. To address this issue, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales has developed a low-cost experiment, called THERME, which enables to monitor the in-flight time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of a large variety of coatings, including commonly used coatings and new materials by measuring their temperature. This experiment has been carried out on sunsynchronous spacecrafts for more than 27 years, allowing thus the generation of a very large set of telemetry measurements. The aim of this work was to develop a model able to semi-quantitatively reproduce these data with a restraint number of parameters. The underlying objectives were to better understand the contribution of the different involved phenomena and, later on, to predict the thermal coating aging at end of life. The physical processes modeled include contamination deposition, UV aging of both contamination layers and intrinsic material and atomic oxygen erosion. Efforts were particularly focused on the satellite leading wall as this face is exposed to the highest variations in environmental conditions during the solar cycle. The non-monotonous time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of thermal coatings is shown to be due to a succession of contamination and contaminant erosion by atomic oxygen phased with the solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...529A..81K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...529A..81K">Solar total irradiance in cycle 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Schmutz, W. 2011-05-01 Context. The most recent minimum of solar activity was deeper and longer than the previous two minima as indicated by different proxies of solar activity. This is also true for the total solar irradiance (TSI) according to the PMOD composite. Aims: The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field does not reproduce the observed TSI in cycle 23. Methods: We use sensitive, 60-min averaged MDI magnetograms and quasi-simultaneous continuum images as an input to our SATIRE-S model and calculate the TSI variation over cycle 23, sampled roughly every two weeks. The computed TSI is then compared with the PMOD composite of TSI measurements and with the data from two individual instruments, SORCE/TIM and UARS/ACRIM II, that monitored the TSI during the declining phase of cycle 23 and over the previous minimum in 1996, respectively. Results: Excellent agreement is found between the trends shown by the model and almost all sets of measurements. The only exception is the early, i.e. 1996 to 1998, PMOD data. Whereas the agreement between the model and the PMOD composite over the period 1999-2009 is almost perfect, the modelled TSI shows a steeper increase between 1996 and 1999 than implied by the PMOD composite. On the other hand, the steeper trend in the model agrees remarkably well with the ACRIM II data. A closer look at the VIRGO data, which are the basis of the PMOD composite after 1996, reveals that only one of the two VIRGO instruments, the PMO6V, shows the shallower trend present in the composite, whereas the DIARAD measurements indicate a steeper trend. Conclusions: Based on these results, we conclude that (1) the sensitivity changes of the PMO6V radiometers within VIRGO during the first two years have very likely not been correctly evaluated; and that (2) the TSI variations over cycle 23 and the change in the TSI levels between the minima in 1996 and 2008 are consistent with the solar surface magnetism mechanism. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMSH51A4152B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMSH51A4152B">Solar-cycle dependence of a model turbulence spectrum using IMP and ACE observations over 38 years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Burger, R. A.; Nel, A. E.; Engelbrecht, N. E. 2014-12-01 Ab initio modulation models require a number of turbulence quantities as input for any reasonable diffusion tensor. While turbulence transport models describe the radial evolution of such quantities, they in turn require observations in the inner heliosphere as input values. So far we have concentrated on solar minimum conditions (e.g. Engelbrecht and Burger 2013, ApJ), but are now looking at long-term modulation which requires turbulence data over at a least a solar magnetic cycle. As a start we analyzed 1-minute resolution data for the N-component of the magnetic field, from 1974 to 2012, covering about two solar magnetic cycles (initially using IMP and then ACE data). We assume a very simple three-stage power-law frequency spectrum, calculate the integral from the highest to the lowest frequency, and fit it to variances calculated with lags from 5 minutes to 80 hours. From the fit we then obtain not only the asymptotic variance at large lags, but also the spectral index of the inertial and the energy, as well as the breakpoint between the inertial and energy range (bendover scale) and between the energy and cutoff range (cutoff scale). All values given here are preliminary. The cutoff range is a constraint imposed in order to ensure a finite energy density; the spectrum is forced to be either flat or to decrease with decreasing frequency in this range. Given that cosmic rays sample magnetic fluctuations over long periods in their transport through the heliosphere, we average the spectra over at least 27 days. We find that the variance of the N-component has a clear solar cycle dependence, with smaller values (~6 nT2) during solar minimum and larger during solar maximum periods (~17 nT2), well correlated with the magnetic field magnitude (e.g. Smith et al. 2006, ApJ). Whereas the inertial range spectral index (-1.65 ± 0.06) does not show a significant solar cycle variation, the energy range index (-1.1 ± 0.3) seems to be anti-correlated with the variance (Bieber et al. 1993, JGR); both indices show close to normal distributions. In contrast, the variance (e.g. Burlaga and Ness, 1998, JGR), and both the bendover scale (see Ruiz et al. 2014, Solar Physics) and cutoff scale appear to be log-normal distributed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1436031-interface-engineering-colloidal-cdse-quantum-dots-thin-films-acid-stable-photocathodes-solar-driven-hydrogen-evolution','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1436031-interface-engineering-colloidal-cdse-quantum-dots-thin-films-acid-stable-photocathodes-solar-driven-hydrogen-evolution">Interface engineering of colloidal CdSe quantum dots thin films as acid-stable photocathodes for solar-driven hydrogen evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Li, Hui; Wen, Peng; Hoxie, Adam Colloidal semiconductor quantum dots-based (CQD) photocathodes for solar-driven hydrogen evolution have attracted significant attention due to their tunable size, nanostructured morphology, crystalline orientation, and band-gap. Here, we report a thin film heterojunction photocathode composed of organic PEDOT:PSS as a hole transport layer, CdSe CQDs as a semiconductor light absorber, and conformal Pt layer deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD) serving as both a passivation layer and cocatalyst for hydrogen evolution. In neutral aqueous solution, a PEDOT:PSS/CdSe/Pt heterogeneous photocathode with 200 cycles of ALD Pt produces a photocurrent density of -1.08 mA/cm 2 (AM1.5G, 100 mW/cm 2) at a potential ofmore » 0 V vs. RHE (j 0) in neutral aqueous solution, which is nearly 12 times that of the pristine CdSe photocathode. This composite photocathode shows an onset potential for water reduction at +0.46 V vs. RHE and long-term stability with negligible degradation. In acidic electrolyte (pH = 1), where the hydrogen evolution reaction is more favorable but stability is limited due to photocorrosion, a thicker Pt film (300 cycles) is shown to greatly improve the device stability and a j 0 of -2.14 mA/cm 2 is obtained with only 8.3% activity degradation after 6 h, compared to 80% degradation under the same conditions when the less conformal electrodeposition method is used to deposit the Pt layer. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-resolved photoluminescence results indicate that these enhancements stem from a lower bulk charge recombination rate, higher interfacial charge transfer rate, and faster reaction kinetics. In conclusion, we believe that these interface engineering strategies can be extended to other colloidal semiconductors to construct more efficient and stable heterogeneous photoelectrodes for solar fuel production.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1436031-interface-engineering-colloidal-cdse-quantum-dots-thin-films-acid-stable-photocathodes-solar-driven-hydrogen-evolution','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1436031-interface-engineering-colloidal-cdse-quantum-dots-thin-films-acid-stable-photocathodes-solar-driven-hydrogen-evolution">Interface engineering of colloidal CdSe quantum dots thin films as acid-stable photocathodes for solar-driven hydrogen evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Li, Hui; Wen, Peng; Hoxie, Adam; ... 2018-04-30 Colloidal semiconductor quantum dots-based (CQD) photocathodes for solar-driven hydrogen evolution have attracted significant attention due to their tunable size, nanostructured morphology, crystalline orientation, and band-gap. Here, we report a thin film heterojunction photocathode composed of organic PEDOT:PSS as a hole transport layer, CdSe CQDs as a semiconductor light absorber, and conformal Pt layer deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD) serving as both a passivation layer and cocatalyst for hydrogen evolution. In neutral aqueous solution, a PEDOT:PSS/CdSe/Pt heterogeneous photocathode with 200 cycles of ALD Pt produces a photocurrent density of -1.08 mA/cm 2 (AM1.5G, 100 mW/cm 2) at a potential ofmore » 0 V vs. RHE (j 0) in neutral aqueous solution, which is nearly 12 times that of the pristine CdSe photocathode. This composite photocathode shows an onset potential for water reduction at +0.46 V vs. RHE and long-term stability with negligible degradation. In acidic electrolyte (pH = 1), where the hydrogen evolution reaction is more favorable but stability is limited due to photocorrosion, a thicker Pt film (300 cycles) is shown to greatly improve the device stability and a j 0 of -2.14 mA/cm 2 is obtained with only 8.3% activity degradation after 6 h, compared to 80% degradation under the same conditions when the less conformal electrodeposition method is used to deposit the Pt layer. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-resolved photoluminescence results indicate that these enhancements stem from a lower bulk charge recombination rate, higher interfacial charge transfer rate, and faster reaction kinetics. In conclusion, we believe that these interface engineering strategies can be extended to other colloidal semiconductors to construct more efficient and stable heterogeneous photoelectrodes for solar fuel production.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712425','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712425">Interface Engineering of Colloidal CdSe Quantum Dot Thin Films as Acid-Stable Photocathodes for Solar-Driven Hydrogen Evolution.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Li, Hui; Wen, Peng; Hoxie, Adam; Dun, Chaochao; Adhikari, Shiba; Li, Qi; Lu, Chang; Itanze, Dominique S; Jiang, Lin; Carroll, David; Lachgar, Abdou; Qiu, Yejun; Geyer, Scott M 2018-05-23 Colloidal semiconductor quantum dot (CQD)-based photocathodes for solar-driven hydrogen evolution have attracted significant attention because of their tunable size, nanostructured morphology, crystalline orientation, and band gap. Here, we report a thin film heterojunction photocathode composed of organic PEDOT:PSS as a hole transport layer, CdSe CQDs as a semiconductor light absorber, and conformal Pt layer deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD) serving as both a passivation layer and cocatalyst for hydrogen evolution. In neutral aqueous solution, a PEDOT:PSS/CdSe/Pt heterogeneous photocathode with 200 cycles of ALD Pt produces a photocurrent density of -1.08 mA/cm 2 (AM-1.5G, 100 mW/cm 2 ) at a potential of 0 V versus reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE) ( j 0 ) in neutral aqueous solution, which is nearly 12 times that of the pristine CdSe photocathode. This composite photocathode shows an onset potential for water reduction at +0.46 V versus RHE and long-term stability with negligible degradation. In the acidic electrolyte (pH = 1), where the hydrogen evolution reaction is more favorable but stability is limited because of photocorrosion, a thicker Pt film (300 cycles) is shown to greatly improve the device stability and a j 0 of -2.14 mA/cm 2 is obtained with only 8.3% activity degradation after 6 h, compared with 80% degradation under the same conditions when the less conformal electrodeposition method is used to deposit the Pt layer. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-resolved photoluminescence results indicate that these enhancements stem from a lower bulk charge recombination rate, higher interfacial charge-transfer rate, and faster reaction kinetics. We believe that these interface engineering strategies can be extended to other colloidal semiconductors to construct more efficient and stable heterogeneous photoelectrodes for solar fuel production. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1326082-heliotail-theory-modeling','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1326082-heliotail-theory-modeling">The Heliotail: Theory and Modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Pogorelov, N. V. 2016-05-31 Physical processes are discussed related to the heliotail which is formed when the solar wind interacts with the local interstellar medium. Although astrotails are commonly observed, the heliotail observations are only indirect. As a consequence, the direct comparison of the observed astrophysical objects and the Sun is impossible. This requires proper theoretical understanding of the heliotail formation and evolution, and numerical simulations in sufficiently large computational boxes. In this paper, we review some previous results related to the heliotail flow and show new simulations which demonstrate that the solar wind collimation inside the Parker spiral field lines diverted by themore » heliopause toward the heliotail is unrealistic. On the contrary, solar cycle effects ensure that the solar wind density reaches its largest values near the solar equatorial plane. We also argue that a realistic heliotail should be very long to account for the observed anisotropy of 1-10 TeV cosmic rays.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913659E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913659E">Mars atmospheric losses induced by the solar wind: current knowledge and perspective</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ermakov, Vladimir; Zelenyi, Lev; Vaisberg, Oleg; Sementsov, Egor; Dubinin, Eduard 2017-04-01 Solar wind induced atmospheric losses have been studied since earlier 1970th. Several loss channels have been identified including pick-up of exospheric photo-ions and ionospheric ions escape. Measurements performed during several solar cycles showed variation of these losses by about factor of 10, being largest at maximum solar activity. MAVEN spacecraft equipped with comprehensive set of instruments with high temporal and mass resolution operating at Mars since fall 2014 ensures much better investigation of solar wind enforcing Martian environment, Mars atmospheric losses processes and mass loss rate. These issues are very important for understanding of Martian atmospheric evolution including water loss during cosmogonic time. Simultaneous observations by MAVEN and MEX spacecraft open the new perspective in study of Martian environment. In this report we discuss results of past and current missions and preliminary analysis of heavy ions escape using simultaneous measurements of MEX and MAVEN spacecraft. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...71H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...71H">Automated Identification of Coronal Holes from Synoptic EUV Maps</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hamada, Amr; Asikainen, Timo; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi 2018-04-01 Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of the fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195 Å/193 Å, 171 Å and 304 Å) measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the Solar Cycles 23 and 24. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AJ....155..153K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AJ....155..153K">The Longitudinal Evolution of Equatorial Coronal Holes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Krista, Larisza D.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Leamon, Robert J. 2018-04-01 In 2011, three satellites—the Solar-Terrestrial RElations Observatory A & B, and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)—were in a unique spatial alignment that allowed a 360° view of the Sun. This alignment lasted until 2014, the peak of solar cycle 24. Using extreme ultraviolet images and Hovmöller diagrams, we studied the lifetimes and propagation characteristics of coronal holes (CHs) in longitude over several solar rotations. Our initial results show at least three distinct populations of “low-latitude” or “equatorial” CHs (below 65^\\circ latitude). One population rotates in retrograde direction and coincides with a group of long-lived (over sixty days) CHs in each hemisphere. These are typically located between 30° and 55^\\circ , and display velocities of ∼55 m s‑1 slower than the local differential rotation rate. A second, smaller population of CHs rotate prograde, with velocities between ∼20 and 45 m s‑1. This population is also long-lived, but observed ±10° from the solar equator. A third population of CHs are short-lived (less than two solar rotations), and they appear over a wide range of latitudes (±65°) and exhibit velocities between ‑140 and 80 m s‑1. The CH “butterfly diagram” we developed shows a systematic evolution of the longer-lived holes; however, the sample is too short in time to draw conclusions about possible connections to dynamo-related phenomena. An extension of the present work to the 22 years of the combined SOHO–SDO archives is necessary to understand the contribution of CHs to the decadal-scale evolution of the Sun. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19730035030&hterms=Adsorption+III&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DAdsorption%2BAs%2B%2528III%2529','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19730035030&hterms=Adsorption+III&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DAdsorption%2BAs%2B%2528III%2529">Microphysical, microchemical, and adhesive properties of lunar material. III - Gas interaction with lunar material.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Grossman, J. J.; Mukherjee, N. R.; Ryan, J. A. 1972-01-01 Gas adsorption measurements on an Apollo 12 ultrahigh vacuum-stored sample and Apollo 14 and 15 N2-stored samples, show that the cosmic ray track and solar wind damaged surface of lunar soil is very reactive. Room temperature monolayer adsorption of N2 by the Apollo 12 sample at 0.0001 atm was observed. Gas evolution of Apollo 14 lunar soil at liquid nitrogen temperature during adsorption/desorption cycling is probably due to cosmic ray track stored energy release accompanied by solar gas release from depths of 100-200 nm. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhDT.........3H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhDT.........3H">Understanding The Behavior Of The Sun'S Large Scale Magnetic Field And Its Relation With The Meridional Flow</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hazra, Gopal 2018-02-01 In this thesis, various studies leading to better understanding of the 11-year solar cycle and its theoretical modeling with the flux transport dynamo model are performed. Although this is primarily a theoretical thesis, there is a part dealing with the analysis of observational data. The various proxies of solar activity (e.g., sunspot number, sunspot area and 10.7 cm radio flux) from various observatory including the sunspot area records of Kodaikanal Observatory have been analyzed to study the irregular aspects of solar cycles and an analysis has been carried out on the correlation between the decay rate and the next cycle amplitude. The theoretical analysis starts with explaining how the magnetic buoyancy has been treated in the flux transport dynamo models, and advantages and disadvantages of different treatments. It is found that some of the irregular properties of the solar cycle in the decaying phase can only be well explained using a particular treatment of the magnetic buoyancy. Next, the behavior of the dynamo with the different spatial structures of the meridional flow based on recent helioseismology results has been studied. A theoretical model is constructed considering the back reaction due to the Lorentz force on the meridional flows which explains the observed variation of the meridional flow with the solar cycle. Finally, some results with 3D FTD models are presented. This 3D model is developed to handle the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and magnetic buoyancy more realistically than previous 2D models and can capture some important effects connected with the subduction of the magnetic field in polar regions, which are missed in 2D surface flux transport models. This 3D model is further used to study the evolution of the magnetic fields due to a turbulent non-axisymmetric velocity field and to compare the results with the results obtained by using a simple turbulent diffusivity coefficient. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSM41E2519S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSM41E2519S">Effects of Complex Interplanetary Structures on the Dynamics of the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt During the 16-30 September 2014 Period: II) Corotating Solar Wind Stream</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Souza, V. M. C. E. S.; Da Silva, L. A.; Sibeck, D. G.; Alves, L. R.; Jauer, P. R.; Dias Silveira, M. V.; Medeiros, C.; Marchezi, J.; Rockenbach, M.; Baker, D. N.; Kletzing, C.; Kanekal, S. G.; Georgiou, M.; Mendes, O., Jr.; Dal Lago, A.; Vieira, L. E. A. 2015-12-01 We present a case study describing the dynamics of the outer radiation belt for two different solar wind conditions. First, we discuss a dropout of outer belt energetic electron fluxes corresponding to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) followed by a corotating stream in September 2014. Second, we discuss the reformation of the outer radiation belt that began on September 22nd. We find that the arrival of the ICME and the corotating interaction region that preceded the stream cause a long-duration (many day) dropout of high-energy electrons. The recovery in radiation belt fluxes only begins when the high-speed stream begins to develop IMF Bz fluctuations and auroral activity resumes. Furthermore, during periods in which several consecutive solar wind structures appear, the first structure primes the outer radiation belt prior to the interaction of the subsequent solar wind structures with the magnetosphere. Consequently, the evolution of the outer radiation belt through the solar cycle is significantly affected by the dominant structure of each phase of the cycle. We use energetic electron and magnetic field observations provided by the Van Allen Probes, THEMIS, and GOES missions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364623-variation-solar-radius-rotation-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364623-variation-solar-radius-rotation-cycles">ON THE VARIATION OF SOLAR RADIUS IN ROTATION CYCLES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Qu, Z. N.; Kong, D. F.; Xiang, N. B. 2015-01-10 The Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform and CLEANest algorithm are used to study the temporal variations of the solar radius observed at Rio de Janeiro Observatory from 1998 March 2 to 2009 November 6. The CLEANest spectra show several significant periodicities around 400, 312, 93.5, 86.2, 79.4, 70.9, 53.2, and 26.3 days. Then, combining the data on the daily solar radius measured at Calern Observatory and Rio de Janeiro Observatory and the corresponding daily sunspot areas, we study the short-term periodicity of the solar radius and the role of magnetic field in the variation of the solar radius. The rotation periodmore » of the daily solar radius is determined to be statistically significant. Moreover, its temporal evolution is anti-phase with that of sunspot activity, and it is found anti-phase with solar activity. Generally, the stronger solar activity is, the more obvious is the anti-phase relation of radius with solar activity. This indicates that strong magnetic fields have a greater inhibitive effect than weak magnetic fields on the variation of the radius.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015FrASS...2....2M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015FrASS...2....2M">Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: On Grand Minima in Solar Activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mcintosh, Scott; Leamon, Robert 2015-07-01 The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a "grand minimum"? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22370206-solar-photospheric-network-properties-cycle-variation','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22370206-solar-photospheric-network-properties-cycle-variation">Solar photospheric network properties and their cycle variation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Thibault, K.; Charbonneau, P.; Béland, M., E-mail: kim@astro.umontreal.ca-a, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca-b, E-mail: michel.beland@calculquebec.ca-c We present a numerical simulation of the formation and evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic network over a full solar cycle. The model exhibits realistic behavior as it produces large, unipolar concentrations of flux in the polar caps, a power-law flux distribution with index –1.69, a flux replacement timescale of 19.3 hr, and supergranule diameters of 20 Mm. The polar behavior is especially telling of model accuracy, as it results from lower-latitude activity, and accumulates the residues of any potential modeling inaccuracy and oversimplification. In this case, the main oversimplification is the absence of a polar sink for the flux,more » causing an amount of polar cap unsigned flux larger than expected by almost one order of magnitude. Nonetheless, our simulated polar caps carry the proper signed flux and dipole moment, and also show a spatial distribution of flux in good qualitative agreement with recent high-latitude magnetographic observations by Hinode. After the last cycle emergence, the simulation is extended until the network has recovered its quiet Sun initial condition. This permits an estimate of the network relaxation time toward the baseline state characterizing extended periods of suppressed activity, such as the Maunder Grand Minimum. Our simulation results indicate a network relaxation time of 2.9 yr, setting 2011 October as the soonest the time after which the last solar activity minimum could have qualified as a Maunder-type Minimum. This suggests that photospheric magnetism did not reach its baseline state during the recent extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663665-variations-solar-parameters-cosmic-rays-solar-magnetic-polarity','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663665-variations-solar-parameters-cosmic-rays-solar-magnetic-polarity">Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AAS...22932502P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AAS...22932502P">The solar corona through the sunspot cycle: preparing for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pasachoff, Jay M.; Seaton, Daniel; Rusin, Vojtech 2017-01-01 We discuss the evolution of the solar corona as seen at eclipses through the solar-activity cycle. In particular, we discuss the variations of the overall shape of the corona through the relative proportions of coronal streamers at equatorial and other latitudes vs. polar plumes. We analyze the two coronal mass ejections that we observed from Gabon at the 2013 total solar eclipse and how they apparently arose from polar crown filaments, one at each pole. We describe the change in the Ludendorff flattening index from solar maximum in one hemisphere as of the 2013 eclipse through the 2015 totality's corona we observed from Svalbard and, with diminishing sunspot and other magnetic activity in each hemisphere, through the 2016 corona we observed from Ternate, Indonesia.We discuss our observational plans for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse from our main site in Salem, Oregon, and subsidiary sites in Madras, OR; Carbondale, IL; and elsewhere, our main site chosen largely by its favorable rating in cloudiness statistics. We discuss the overlapping role of simultaneous spacecraft observations, including those expected not only from NASA's SDO, ESA's SWAP on PROBA2, and NRL/NASA/ESA's LASCO on SOHO but also from the new SUVI (Solar Ultraviolet Imager) aboard NOAA's GOES-R satellite, scheduled as of this writing to have been launched by the time of this January 2017 meeting.Our research on the 2013 and 2015 total solar eclipses was supported by grants from the Committee for Research and Exploration of the National Geographic Society (NG-CRE). Our research on the 2017 total solar eclipse is supported by both NG-CRE and the Solar Terrestrial Program of the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11970729','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11970729">Nitric oxide cycle in mammals and the cyclicity principle.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Reutov, V P 2002-03-01 This paper continues a series of reports considering nitric oxide (NO) and its cyclic conversions in mammals. Numerous facts are summarized with the goal of developing a general concept that would allow the statement of the multiple effects of NO on various systems of living organisms in the form of a short and comprehensive law. The current state of biological aspects of NO research is analyzed in term of elucidation of possible role of these studies in the system of biological sciences. The general concept is based on a notion on cyclic conversions of NO and its metabolites. NO cycles in living organisms and nitrogen turnover in the biosphere and also the Bethe nitrogen-carbon cycle in star matter are considered. A hypothesis that the cyclic organization of processes in living organisms and the biosphere reflects the evolution of life is proposed: the development of physiological functions and metabolism are suggested to be closely related to space and evolution of the Earth as a planet of the Solar System. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..02K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..02K">Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals related to the 11-year solar cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kruschke, T.; Kunze, M.; Matthes, K. B.; Langematz, U.; Wahl, S. 2017-12-01 Although state-of-the-art reconstructions based on proxies and (semi-)empirical models converge in terms of total solar irradiance, they still significantly differ in terms of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with respect to the mean spectral distribution of energy input and temporal variability. This study aims at quantifying uncertainties for the Earth's climate related to the 11-year solar cycle by forcing two chemistry-climate models (CCMs) - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - with five different SSI reconstructions (NRLSSI1, NRLSSI2, SATIRE-T, SATIRE-S, CMIP6-SSI) and the reference spectrum RSSV1-ATLAS3, derived from observations. We conduct a unique set of timeslice experiments. External forcings and boundary conditions are fixed and identical for all experiments, except for the solar forcing. The set of analyzed simulations consists of one solar minimum simulation, employing RSSV1-ATLAS3 and five solar maximum experiments. The latter are a result of adding the amplitude of solar cycle 22 according to the five reconstructions to RSSV1-ATLAS3. Our results show that the climate response to the 11y solar cycle is generally robust across CCMs and SSI forcings. However, analyzing the variance of the solar maximum ensemble by means of ANOVA-statistics reveals additional information on the uncertainties of the mean climate signals. The annual mean response agrees very well between the two CCMs for most parts of the lower and middle atmosphere. Only the upper mesosphere is subject to significant differences related to the choice of the model. However, the different SSI forcings lead to significant differences in ozone concentrations, shortwave heating rates, and temperature throughout large parts of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Regarding the seasonal evolution of the climate signals, our findings for short wave heating rates, and temperature are similar to the annual means with respect to the relative importance of the choice of the model or the SSI forcing for the respective atmospheric layer. On the other hand, the predominantly dynamically driven signal in zonal wind is quite dependent on the choice of a CCM, mainly due to spatio-temporal shifts of similar responses. Within a given "model world" dynamical signals related to the different SSI forcings agree very well even under this monthly perspective. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970041379','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970041379">Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest 1997-01-01 During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH41A2755G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH41A2755G">Solar Flare Dynamic Microwave Imaging with EOVSA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gary, D. E.; Chen, B.; Nita, G. M.; Fleishman, G. D.; Yu, S.; White, S. M.; Hurford, G. J.; McTiernan, J. M. 2017-12-01 The Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) is both an expansion of our existing solar array and serves as a prototype for a much larger future project, the Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope (FASR). EOVSA is now complete, and is producing daily imaging of the full solar disk, including active regions and solar radio bursts at hundreds of frequencies in the range 2.8-18 GHz. We present highlights of the 1-s-cadence dynamic imaging spectroscropy of radio bursts we have obtained to date, along with deeper analysis of multi-wavelength observations and modeling of a well-observed burst. These observations are revealing the full life-cycle of the trapped population of high-energy electrons, from their initial acceleration and subsequent energy-evolution to their eventual decay through escape and thermalization. All of our data are being made available for download in both quick-look image form and in the form of the community-standard CASA measurement sets for subsequent imaging and analysis. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ACP....15.6879K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ACP....15.6879K">The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P. 2015-06-01 This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......161S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......161S">Astrostatistical Analysis in Solar and Stellar Physics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stenning, David Craig This dissertation focuses on developing statistical models and methods to address data-analytic challenges in astrostatistics---a growing interdisciplinary field fostering collaborations between statisticians and astrophysicists. The astrostatistics projects we tackle can be divided into two main categories: modeling solar activity and Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. These categories from Part I and Part II of this dissertation, respectively. The first line of research we pursue involves classification and modeling of evolving solar features. Advances in space-based observatories are increasing both the quality and quantity of solar data, primarily in the form of high-resolution images. To analyze massive streams of solar image data, we develop a science-driven dimension reduction methodology to extract scientifically meaningful features from images. This methodology utilizes mathematical morphology to produce a concise numerical summary of the magnetic flux distribution in solar "active regions'' that (i) is far easier to work with than the source images, (ii) encapsulates scientifically relevant information in a more informative manner than existing schemes (i.e., manual classification schemes), and (iii) is amenable to sophisticated statistical analyses. In a related line of research, we perform a Bayesian analysis of the solar cycle using multiple proxy variables, such as sunspot numbers. We take advantage of patterns and correlations among the proxy variables to model solar activity using data from proxies that have become available more recently, while also taking advantage of the long history of observations of sunspot numbers. This model is an extension of the Yu et al. (2012) Bayesian hierarchical model for the solar cycle that used the sunspot numbers alone. Since proxies have different temporal coverage, we devise a multiple imputation scheme to account for missing data. We find that incorporating multiple proxies reveals important features of the solar cycle that are missed when the model is fit using only the sunspot numbers. In Part II of this dissertation we focus on two related lines of research involving Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. We first focus on modeling multiple stellar populations in star clusters. It has long been assumed that all star clusters are comprised of single stellar populations---stars that formed at roughly the same time from a common molecular cloud. However, recent studies have produced evidence that some clusters host multiple populations, which has far-reaching scientific implications. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for multiple-population star clusters, extending earlier statistical models of stellar evolution (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009, Stein et al. 2013). We also devise an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the complex posterior distribution. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of multiple-population clusters, and also show how model misspecification can be diagnosed. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We also explore statistical properties of the estimators and determine that the influence of the prior distribution does not diminish with larger sample sizes, leading to non-standard asymptotics. In a final line of research, we present the first-ever attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of white dwarfs. This quantity has important implications for both astrophysics and fundamental nuclear physics, but is currently unknown. We use a numerical study to demonstrate that assuming an incorrect value for the carbon fraction leads to incorrect white-dwarf ages of star clusters. Finally, we present our attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of the white dwarfs in the well-studied star cluster 47 Tucanae. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890056417&hterms=many+habitable+planets+there&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dmany%2Bhabitable%2Bplanets%2Bthere%253F','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890056417&hterms=many+habitable+planets+there&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dmany%2Bhabitable%2Bplanets%2Bthere%253F">Climate evolution on the terrestrial planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kasting, J. F.; Toon, O. B. 1989-01-01 The present comparative evaluation of the long-term evolution of the Venus, earth, and Mars climates suggests that the earth's climate has remained temperate over most of its history despite a secular solar luminosity increase in virtue of a negative-feedback cycle based on atmospheric CO2 levels and climate. The examination of planetary climate histories suggests that an earth-sized planet should be able to maintain liquid water on its surface at orbital distances in the 0.9-1.5 AU range, comparable to the orbit of Mars; this, in turn, implies that there may be many other habitable planets within the Galaxy. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSH13C2268L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMSH13C2268L">On the Cause of Solar Differential Rotations in the Solar Interior and Near the Solar Surface</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lyu, L. 2012-12-01 A theoretical model is proposed to explain the cause of solar differential rotations observed in the solar interior and near the solar surface. We propose that the latitudinal differential rotation in the solar convection zone is a manifestation of an easterly wind in the mid latitude. The speed of the easterly wind is controlled by the magnitude of the poleward temperature gradient in the lower part of the solar convection zone. The poleward temperature gradient depends on the orientation and strength of the magnetic fields at different latitudes in the solar convection zone. The north-south asymmetry in the wind speed can lead to north-south asymmetry in the evolution of the solar cycle. The easterly wind is known to be unstable for a west-to-east rotating star or planet. Based on the observed differential rotations in the solar convection zone, we can estimate the easterly wind speed at about 60-degree latitude and determine the azimuthal wave number of the unstable wave modes along the zonal flow. The lowest azimuthal wave number is about m=7~8. This result is consistent with the average width of the elephant-trunk coronal hole shown in the solar X-ray images. The nonlinear evolution of the unstable easterly wind can lead to transpolar migration of coronal holes and can change the poloidal magnetic field in a very efficient way. In the study of radial differential rotation near the solar surface, we propose that the radial differential rotation depends on the radial temperature gradient. The radial temperature gradient depends on the magnetic field structure above the solar surface. The non-uniform magnetic field distribution above the solar surface can lead to non-uniform radial convections and formation of magnetic flux rope at different spatial scales. The possible cause of continuous formation and eruption of prominences near an active region will also be discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....1715045H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....1715045H">Annual cycle of Scots pine photosynthesis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hari, Pertti; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Liisa; Kulmala, Markku; Noe, Steffen; Petäjä, Tuukka; Vanhatalo, Anni; Bäck, Jaana 2017-12-01 Photosynthesis, i.e. the assimilation of atmospheric carbon to organic molecules with the help of solar energy, is a fundamental and well-understood process. Here, we connect theoretically the fundamental concepts affecting C3 photosynthesis with the main environmental drivers (ambient temperature and solar light intensity), using six axioms based on physiological and physical knowledge, and yield straightforward and simple mathematical equations. The light and carbon reactions in photosynthesis are based on the coherent operation of the photosynthetic machinery, which is formed of a complicated chain of enzymes, membrane pumps and pigments. A powerful biochemical regulation system has emerged through evolution to match photosynthesis with the annual cycle of solar light and temperature. The action of the biochemical regulation system generates the annual cycle of photosynthesis and emergent properties, the state of the photosynthetic machinery and the efficiency of photosynthesis. The state and the efficiency of the photosynthetic machinery is dynamically changing due to biosynthesis and decomposition of the molecules. The mathematical analysis of the system, defined by the very fundamental concepts and axioms, resulted in exact predictions of the behaviour of daily and annual patterns in photosynthesis. We tested the predictions with extensive field measurements of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) photosynthesis on a branch scale in northern Finland. Our theory gained strong support through rigorous testing. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH52B..03M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH52B..03M">IBEX: The Evolving Global View and Synergies with In Situ Voyager Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> McComas, D. J. 2015-12-01 The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has now returned nearly seven years of observations, which comprise 14 full sets of energy resolved all-sky maps and provide the global view of our Sun's interaction with very local part of the galaxy. With such a long baseline of observations, we are able to examine time variations in the outer heliosphere as it responds to both 11-year solar cycle variations and longer term secular evolution of the three dimensional solar wind. Now that we have collected over half a solar cycle of observations, IBEX is beginning to show us how the heliosphere - our home in the galaxy - varies in time as well as space. In this talk we present the most recent observations and review some other recent discoveries from IBEX. We also examine the synergy between the global view provided by IBEX and the in situ observations form the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft. Finally, we discuss the incredible improvement in interstellar observations - and our understanding of the local interstellar medium - that the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) will provide. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatAs...1..872K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatAs...1..872K">The evolution of Saturn's radiation belts modulated by changes in radial diffusion</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kollmann, P.; Roussos, E.; Kotova, A.; Paranicas, C.; Krupp, N. 2017-12-01 Globally magnetized planets, such as the Earth1 and Saturn2, are surrounded by radiation belts of protons and electrons with kinetic energies well into the million electronvolt range. The Earth's proton belt is supplied locally from galactic cosmic rays interacting with the atmosphere3, as well as from slow inward radial transport4. Its intensity shows a relationship with the solar cycle4,5 and abrupt dropouts due to geomagnetic storms6,7. Saturn's proton belts are simpler than the Earth's because cosmic rays are the principal source of energetic protons8 with virtually no contribution from inward transport, and these belts can therefore act as a prototype to understand more complex radiation belts. However, the time dependence of Saturn's proton belts had not been observed over sufficiently long timescales to test the driving mechanisms unambiguously. Here we analyse the evolution of Saturn's proton belts over a solar cycle using in-situ measurements from the Cassini Saturn orbiter and a numerical model. We find that the intensity in Saturn's proton radiation belts usually rises over time, interrupted by periods that last over a year for which the intensity is gradually dropping. These observations are inconsistent with predictions based on a modulation in the cosmic-ray source, as could be expected4,9 based on the evolution of the Earth's proton belts. We demonstrate that Saturn's intensity dropouts result instead from losses due to abrupt changes in magnetospheric radial diffusion. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28416728','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28416728">Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth's interior and surface environment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Korenaga, Jun; Planavsky, Noah J; Evans, David A D 2017-05-28 The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth's history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3-4.5×10 14 g yr -1 on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed.This article is part of the themed issue 'The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System'. © 2017 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5394256','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5394256">Global water cycle and the coevolution of the Earth’s interior and surface environment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Planavsky, Noah J.; Evans, David A. D. 2017-01-01 The bulk Earth composition contains probably less than 0.3% of water, but this trace amount of water can affect the long-term evolution of the Earth in a number of different ways. The foremost issue is the occurrence of plate tectonics, which governs almost all aspects of the Earth system, and the presence of water could either promote or hinder the operation of plate tectonics, depending on where water resides. The global water cycle, which circulates surface water into the deep mantle and back to the surface again, could thus have played a critical role in the Earth’s history. In this contribution, we first review the present-day water cycle and discuss its uncertainty as well as its secular variation. If the continental freeboard has been roughly constant since the Early Proterozoic, model results suggest long-term net water influx from the surface to the mantle, which is estimated to be 3−4.5×1014 g yr−1 on the billion years time scale. We survey geological and geochemical observations relevant to the emergence of continents above the sea level as well as the nature of Precambrian plate tectonics. The global water cycle is suggested to have been dominated by regassing, and its implications for geochemical cycles and atmospheric evolution are also discussed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System’. PMID:28416728 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH41A2170R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSH41A2170R">Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D. 2013-12-01 Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513750D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513750D">A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami 2013-04-01 Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1610. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1614023D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1614023D">Modelling total solar irradiance using a flux transport model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami 2014-05-01 Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1700. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED11D0146H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED11D0146H">The Magnetic Evolution of Coronal Hole Bright Points</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> He, Y.; Muglach, K. 2017-12-01 Space weather refers to the state of the heliosphere and the geospace environment that are caused primarily by solar activity. Coronal mass ejections and flares originate in active regions and filaments close to the solar surface and can cause geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particles events, which can damage both spacecraft and ground-based systems that are critical for society's well-being. Coronal bright points are small-scale magnetic regions on the sun that seem to be similar to active regions, but are about an order of magnitude smaller. Due to their shorter lifetime, the complete evolutionary cycle of these mini active regions can be studied, from the time they appear in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images to the time they fade. We are using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to study both the coronal EUV flux and the photospheric magnetic field and compare them to activities of the coronal bright point. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SSRv..212.1069S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SSRv..212.1069S">Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schwadron, Nathan A.; Cooper, John F.; Desai, Mihir; Downs, Cooper; Gorby, Matt; Jordan, Andrew P.; Joyce, Colin J.; Kozarev, Kamen; Linker, Jon A.; Mikíc, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Spence, Harlan E.; Török, Tibor; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, Jody K.; Zeitlin, Cary 2017-11-01 Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160010514','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160010514">Low-Frequency Radio Bursts and Space Weather</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gopalswamy, N. 2016-01-01 Low-frequency radio phenomena are due to the presence of nonthermal electrons in the interplanetary (IP) medium. Understanding these phenomena is important in characterizing the space environment near Earth and other destinations in the solar system. Substantial progress has been made in the past two decades, because of the continuous and uniform data sets available from space-based radio and white-light instrumentation. This paper highlights some recent results obtained on IP radio phenomena. In particular, the source of type IV radio bursts, the behavior of type III storms, shock propagation in the IP medium, and the solar-cycle variation of type II radio bursts are considered. All these phenomena are closely related to solar eruptions and active region evolution. The results presented were obtained by combining data from the Wind and SOHO missions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Ge%26Ae..56..880V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Ge%26Ae..56..880V">The dynamic relation between activities in the Northern and Southern solar hemispheres</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G. 2016-12-01 The north-south (N/S) asymmetry of solar activity is the most pronounced phenomenon during 11-year cycle minimums. The goal of this work is to try to interpret the asymmetry as a result of the generalized synchronization of two dynamic systems. It is assumed that these systems are localized in two solar hemispheres. The evolution of these systems is considered in the topological embeddings of a sunspot area time series obtained with the use of the Takens algorithm. We determine the coupling measure and estimate it on the time series of daily sunspot areas. The measurement made it possible to interpret the asymmetry as an exchangeable dynamic equation, in which the roles of the driver-slave components change in time for two hemispheres. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000033986&hterms=forecasts+future&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dforecasts%2Bfor%2Bthe%2Bfuture','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000033986&hterms=forecasts+future&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dforecasts%2Bfor%2Bthe%2Bfuture">Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hathaway, D. H. 2000-01-01 A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...525L..12M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...525L..12M">The last dance of the bashful ballerina?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. 2011-01-01 Aims: The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) has long been hemispherically asymmetric so that the field in the northern hemisphere is weaker and the area larger than in the south. This asymmetry, also called the bashful ballerina, has existed during roughly three-year intervals of the late declining to minimum phase of solar cycles 16-22. We study the HMF and its hemispheric asymmetry during the exceptional solar cycle 23. Methods: We use NASA National Space Science Data Center OMNI database, which contains all solar wind and HMF observations at the Earth's orbit, and coronal field predictions by Wilcox Solar Observatory. We present a new method to study the global hemispheric asymmetry by using the power n of the radial decrease of the radial field from the coronal source surface to 1 AU. Results: We find that the HMF is exceptional at low latitudes in solar cycle 23: while the typical latitudinal variation was attained in the north in 2008, it did not take place in the south until Spring 2009. Thus, the Rosenberg-Coleman rule is abnormally delayed or broken for the first time in 50 years. The n-values verify the clear northern dominance in cycles 21-22. However, the low-latitude observations depict a considerably smaller asymmetry in cycle 23, although Ulysses observations at high latitudes show an equally large asymmetry in 2007 and in 1994-1995. We argue that the weak low-latitude visibility of the asymmetry in cycle 23 is due to the exceptionally weak polar fields, leading to large tilt angle and a wide current sheet. Conclusions: We note that the exceptional properties of cycle 23 (weak dynamo, large tilt, small asymmetry) agree with the long-term evolution of hemispheric asymmetry viewed at the Earth. The active Sun is seen as more asymmetric at the Earth than the quiet Sun because the polar coronal holes with unipolar fields extend closer to the equator, allowing their asymmetry to be viewed even at low latitudes. We suggest that, after the period of weak activity and small asymmetry at 1 AU that started with cycle 23, the hemispheric asymmetry will again, with the increasingly active cycles, become better visible at 1 AU but the asymmetry will be oppositely oriented, including a northward shifted current sheet, and larger areas but weaker intensities in the south. Thus, the ballerina should no longer be systematically bashful for some 100-150 years. Figure 4 is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4810606K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4810606K">The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu 2017-08-01 The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SpWea..16..289S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SpWea..16..289S">Update on the Worsening Particle Radiation Environment Observed by CRaTER and Implications for Future Human Deep-Space Exploration</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schwadron, N. A.; Rahmanifard, F.; Wilson, J.; Jordan, A. P.; Spence, H. E.; Joyce, C. J.; Blake, J. B.; Case, A. W.; de Wet, W.; Farrell, W. M.; Kasper, J. C.; Looper, M. D.; Lugaz, N.; Mays, L.; Mazur, J. E.; Niehof, J.; Petro, N.; Smith, C. W.; Townsend, L. W.; Winslow, R.; Zeitlin, C. 2018-03-01 Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084), the cycle 23-24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the "mini" solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded theERobserved small solar energetic particle events. Here we provide an update to the Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. The Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) study examined the evolution of the interplanetary magnetic field and utilized a previously published study by Goelzer et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019404) projecting out the interplanetary magnetic field strength based on the evolution of sunspots as a proxy for the rate that the Sun releases coronal mass ejections. This led to a projection of dose rates from galactic cosmic rays on the lunar surface, which suggested a ˜20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next and indicated that the radiation environment in space may be a worsening factor important for consideration in future planning of human space exploration. We compare the predictions of Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) with the actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years. The observed dose rates exceed the predictions by ˜10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Much of this increase is attributable to relatively low-energy ions, which can be effectively shielded. Despite the continued paucity of solar activity, one of the hardest solar events in almost a decade occurred in September 2017 after more than a year of all-clear periods. These particle radiation conditions present important issues that must be carefully studied and accounted for in the planning and design of future missions (to the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and beyond). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3617729','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3617729">Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Kern, A.K.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W.E.; Mandic, O.; Soliman, A. 2012-01-01 The Late Miocene paleogeography of central Europe and its climatic history are well studied with a resolution of c. 106 years. Small-scale climatic variations are yet unresolved. Observing past climatic change of short periods, however, would encourage the understanding of the modern climatic system. Therefore, past climate archives require a resolution on a decadal to millennial scale. To detect such a short-term evolution, a continuous 6-m-core of the Paleo-Lake Pannon was analyzed in 1-cm-sample distance to provide information as precise and regular as possible. Measurements of the natural gamma radiation and magnetic susceptibility combined with the total abundance of ostracod shells were used as proxies to estimate millennial- to centennial scale environmental changes during the mid-Tortonian warm period. Patterns emerged, but no indisputable age model can be provided for the core, due to the lack of paleomagnetic reversals and the lack of minerals suitable for absolute dating. Therefore, herein we propose another method to determine a hypothetic time frame for these deposits. Based on statistical processes, including Lomb–Scargle and REDFIT periodograms along with Wavelet spectra, several distinct cyclicities could be detected. Calculations considering established off-shore sedimentation rates of the Tortonian Vienna Basin revealed patterns resembling Holocene solar-cycle-records well. The comparison of filtered data of Miocene and Holocene records displays highly similar patterns and comparable modulations. A best-fit adjustment of sedimentation rate results in signals which fit to the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle, the de Vries cycle, the unnamed 500-year- and 1000-year-cycles, as well as the Hallstatt cycle. Each of these cycles has a distinct and unique expression in the investigated environmental proxies, reflecting a complex forcing-system. Hence, a single-proxy-analysis, as often performed on Holocene records, should be considered cautiously as it might fail to capture the full range of solar cycles. PMID:23564975 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP33D..03I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP33D..03I">Chaotic evolution of the long-period Milankovitch cycle during the early Mesozoic: independent evidences from the Newark lacustrine sequence (North America) and the pelagic bedded chert sequence (Japan)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ikeda, M.; Olsen, P. E.; Tada, R. 2012-12-01 The correlation of Earth's orbital parameters with climatic variations has been used to generate astronomically calibrated geologic time scales of high accuracy. However, because of the chaotic behavior of the solar planets, the orbital models have a large uncertainty beyond several tens of million years in the past. This chaotic behavior also causes the long-period astronomical cycles (> 0.5 Myr periodicity) to modulate their frequency and amplitude. In other words, their modulation patterns could be potential constraints for the orbital models. Here we report the first geologic constraints on the timing of frequency transition and amplitude modulation of the ~ 2 Myr long eccentricity cycles during the early Mesozoic. We examined the lake level records of the early Mesozoic Newark lacustrine sequence in North America and the biogenic silica burial rate of the pelagic bedded chert sequence in the Inuyama area, Japan, which are proven to be reflect the astronomical cycle (Olsen, 1986; Olsen and Kent, 1996; Ikeda et al., 2010). The time scales of the two sequences were orbitally calibrated with the end-Triassic mass extinction interval as the age anchor, covering ~ 30 Myr and ~ 65 Myr, respectively (Olsen et al., 2011; Ikeda et al., 2010, in prep). We find that the frequency modulation of ~ 2 Myr cycle between 2.4 Myr to 1.6 Myr cycle have occurred at least the Middle to Late Triassic. In addition, the ~ 2 Myr cycle modulate its amplitude with ~ 10 Myr periodicity with in-phase relation between the two. Similar modulation patterns of ~ 2 Myr cycles from the two independent geologic records indicate convincing evidences for the chaotic behavior of the Solar planets. Because these modulation patterns are different from the results of the orbital models by Laskar et al. (2004, 2011), our records will provide the new and challenging constraints for the orbital models in terms of chaotic behavior of Solar planets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27445420','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27445420">Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Fields from a Coupled Dynamo Potential-Field Source-Surface Model.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Dikpati, Mausumi; Suresh, Akshaya; Burkepile, Joan The structure of the Sun's corona varies with the solar-cycle phase, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. It is widely accepted that the large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields that are most likely generated by dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential-field source-surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation; these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona using a potential-field source-surface model. Assuming axisymmetry, we take linear combinations of associated Legendre polynomials that match the more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986 - 1991), we compute the coefficients of the associated Legendre polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observations. We show that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but it fades as the cycle progresses; higher-order multipolar terms begin to dominate. The amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same for the two limbs, indicating that there is a longitude dependence. While both the 1986 and the 1996 minimum coronas were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, since there was a substantial departure from a dipole. We investigate the physical cause of this departure by including a North-South asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our flux-transport dynamo model, and find that this asymmetry could be one of the reasons for departure from the dipole in the 2008 minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170003787&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dcycles','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170003787&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dcycles">Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell, William D. 2016-01-01 Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070034942&hterms=solar+energy&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Benergy','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070034942&hterms=solar+energy&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Benergy">Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Perovich, Donald K.; Nghiem, Son V.; Markus, Thorsten; Schwieger, Axel 2007-01-01 The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PASJ...69...98U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PASJ...69...98U">Temporal relations between magnetic bright points and the solar sunspot cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Utz, Dominik; Muller, Richard; Van Doorsselaere, Tom 2017-12-01 The Sun shows a global magnetic field cycle traditionally best visible in the photosphere as a changing sunspot cycle featuring roughly an 11-year period. In addition we know that our host star also harbours small-scale magnetic fields often seen as strong concentrations of magnetic flux reaching kG field strengths. These features are situated in inter-granular lanes, where they show up bright as so-called magnetic bright points (MBPs). In this short paper we wish to analyse an homogenous, nearly 10-year-long synoptic Hinode image data set recorded from 2006 November up to 2016 February in the G-band to inspect the relationship between the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre and the relative sunspot number. Our findings suggest that the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre is indeed correlated to the relative sunspot number, but with the particular feature of showing two different temporal shifts between the decreasing phase of cycle 23 including the minimum and the increasing phase of cycle 24 including the maximum. While the former is shifted by about 22 months, the latter is only shifted by less than 12 months. Moreover, we introduce and discuss an analytical model to predict the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre purely depending on the evolution of the relative sunspot number as well as the temporal change of the relative sunspot number and two background parameters describing a possibly acting surface dynamo as well as the strength of the magnetic field diffusion. Finally, we are able to confirm the plausibility of the temporal shifts by a simplistic random walk model. The main conclusion to be drawn from this work is that the injection of magnetic flux, coming from active regions as represented by sunspots, happens on faster time scales than the removal of small-scale magnetic flux elements later on. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MNRAS.459.4325M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MNRAS.459.4325M">The evolving magnetic topology of τ Boötis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mengel, M. W.; Fares, R.; Marsden, S. C.; Carter, B. D.; Jeffers, S. V.; Petit, P.; Donati, J.-F.; Folsom, C. P.; BCool Collaboration 2016-07-01 We present six epochs of spectropolarimetric observations of the hot-Jupiter-hosting star τ Boötis that extend the exceptional previous multiyear data set of its large-scale magnetic field. Our results confirm that the large-scale magnetic field of τ Boötis varies cyclicly, with the observation of two further magnetic reversals; between 2013 December and 2014 May and between 2015 January and March. We also show that the field evolves in a broadly solar-type manner in contrast to other F-type stars. We further present new results which indicate that the chromospheric activity cycle and the magnetic activity cycles are related, which would indicate a very rapid magnetic cycle. As an exemplar of long-term magnetic field evolution, τ Boötis and this long-term monitoring campaign presents a unique opportunity for studying stellar magnetic cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SoPh..291.1043M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SoPh..291.1043M">Solar Spectral Irradiance at 782 nm as Measured by the SES Sensor Onboard Picard</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Meftah, M.; Hauchecorne, A.; Irbah, A.; Cessateur, G.; Bekki, S.; Damé, L.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N. 2016-04-01 Picard is a satellite dedicated to the simultaneous measurement of the total and solar spectral irradiance, the solar diameter, the solar shape, and to the Sun's interior through the methods of helioseismology. The satellite was launched on June 15, 2010, and pursued its data acquisitions until March 2014. A Sun Ecartometry Sensor (SES) was developed to provide the stringent pointing requirements of the satellite. The SES sensor produced an image of the Sun at 782 ± 2.5 nm. From the SES data, we obtained a new time series of the solar spectral irradiance at 782 nm from 2010 to 2014. During this period of Solar Cycle 24, the amplitude of the changes has been of the order of ± 0.08 %, corresponding to a range of about 2× 10^{-3} W m^{-2} nm^{-1}. SES observations provided a qualitatively consistent evolution of the solar spectral irradiance variability at 782 nm. SES data show similar amplitude variations with the semi-empirical model Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S), whereas the Spectral Irradiance Monitor instrument (SIM) onboard the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment satellite (SORCE) highlights higher amplitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JGRD..114.0I04K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JGRD..114.0I04K">Reconstruction of solar UV irradiance since 1974</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Wenzler, T.; Podlipnik, B. 2009-09-01 Variations of the solar UV irradiance are an important driver of chemical and physical processes in the Earth's upper atmosphere and may also influence global climate. Here we reconstruct solar UV irradiance in the range 115-400 nm over the period 1974-2007 by making use of the recently developed empirical extension of the Spectral And Total Irradiance Reconstruction (SATIRE) models employing Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) data. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is described by the magnetograms and continuum images recorded at the Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory between 1974 and 2003 and by the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on SOHO since 1996. The reconstruction extends the available observational record by 1.5 solar cycles. The reconstructed Ly-α irradiance agrees well with the composite time series by Woods et al. (2000). The amplitude of the irradiance variations grows with decreasing wavelength and in the wavelength regions of special interest for studies of the Earth's climate (Ly-α and oxygen absorption continuum and bands between 130 and 350 nm) is 1-2 orders of magnitude stronger than in the visible or if integrated over all wavelengths (total solar irradiance). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C41B0699A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C41B0699A">Impact of weather events on Arctic sea ice albedo evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Arntsen, A. E.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Stwertka, C. 2015-12-01 Arctic sea ice undergoes a seasonal evolution from cold snow-covered ice to melting snow to bare ice with melt ponds. Associated with this physical evolution is a decrease in the albedo of the ice cover. While the change in albedo is often considered as a steady seasonal decrease, weather events during melt, such as rain or snow, can impact the albedo evolution. Measurements on first year ice in the Chukchi Sea showed a decrease in visible albedo to 0.77 during the onset of melt. New snow from 4 - 6 June halted melting and increased the visible albedo to 0.87. It took 12 days for the albedo to decrease to levels prior to the snowfall. Incident solar radiation is large in June and thus a change in albedo has a large impact on the surface heat budget. The snowfall increased the albedo by 0.1 and reduced the absorbed sunlight from 5 June to 17 June by approximately 32 MJ m-2. The total impact of the snowfall will be even greater, since the delay in albedo reduction will be propagated throughout the entire summer. A rain event would have the opposite impact, increasing solar heat input and accelerating melting. Snow or rain in May or June can impact the summer melt cycle of Arctic sea ice. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170003095&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dcycles','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170003095&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dcycles">On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H. 2016-01-01 The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JASS...30..101O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JASS...30..101O">Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong 2013-06-01 The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27194958','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27194958">The Solar Cycle.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hathaway, David H The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1693L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1693L">Transient galactic cosmic ray modulation during solar cycle 24: A comparative study of two prominent Forbush decrease events</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lingling, Zhao; Huai, Zhang; Hongqing, He 2016-04-01 Forbush decrease (FD) events are of great interest for transient galactic cosmic ray modulation study. In this study, we perform statistical analysis of two prominent Forbush events during cycle 24, occurred on 8 March 2012 (Event 1) and 22 June 2015 (Event 2), respectively, utilizing the measurements from the worldwide neutron monitor (NM) network. Despite of their comparable magnitudes, the two Forbush events are distinctly different in terms of evolving GCR energy spectrum and energy dependence of the recovery time. The recovery time of Event 1 is strongly dependent on the median energy, compared to the nearly constant recovery time of Event 2 over the studied energy range. Additionally, while the evolution of the energy spectra during the two FD event exhibit similar variation pattern, the spectrum of Event 2 is very harder, especially at the time of deepest depression. These difference are essentially related to their associated solar wind disturbances. Event 1 is associated with a complicated shock-associated ICME structure of IP/Sheath/MC sequence with large radial extend and limited longitudinal extent (narrow and thick), probably merged from multiple shocks and transient flows. Conversely, Event 2 is accompanied by a relatively simple interplanetary disturbance of IP/Sheath/Ejecta sequence with small radial extend and wide longitudinal departure (wide and thin), possibly evolved from an over expanded CME. Such comparative study may help to clarify the occurrence mechanisms of Forbush events related to different types solar wind structures and provide valuable insight into the transient GCR modulation, especially during the unusual solar cycle 24. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930052624&hterms=crosby&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dcrosby','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930052624&hterms=crosby&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dcrosby">Frequency distributions and correlations of solar X-ray flare parameters</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Crosby, Norma B.; Aschwanden, Markus J.; Dennis, Brian R. 1993-01-01 Frequency distributions of flare parameters are determined from over 12,000 solar flares. The flare duration, the peak counting rate, the peak hard X-ray flux, the total energy in electrons, and the peak energy flux in electrons are among the parameters studied. Linear regression fits, as well as the slopes of the frequency distributions, are used to determine the correlations between these parameters. The relationship between the variations of the frequency distributions and the solar activity cycle is also investigated. Theoretical models for the frequency distribution of flare parameters are dependent on the probability of flaring and the temporal evolution of the flare energy build-up. The results of this study are consistent with stochastic flaring and exponential energy build-up. The average build-up time constant is found to be 0.5 times the mean time between flares. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000012415','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000012415">A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J. 1999-01-01 A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2473P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2473P">Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H. 2017-12-01 We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020087931','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020087931">Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor) 2002-01-01 We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E.634D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E.634D">Total solar irradiance reconstruction since 1700 using a flux transport model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dasi Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Jiang, Jie Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are crucial for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic fields have been most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Daily magnetograms, such as those from MDI and HMI, provide the most detailed information on the changing distribution of the photospheric magnetic fields. Since such magnetograms are only available from 1974, we used a surface flux transport model to describe the evolution of the magnetic fields on the solar surface due to the effects of differential rotation, meridional circulation, and turbulent diffusivity, before 1974. In this model, the sources of magnetic flux are the active regions, which are introduced based on sunspot group areas, positions, and tilt angles. The RGO record is, however, only available since 1874. Here we present a model of solar irradiance since 1700, which is based on a semi-synthetic sunspot record. The semi-synthetic record was obtained using statistical relationships between sunspot group properties (areas, positions, tilt angles) derived from the RGO record on one hand, and the cycle strength and phase derived from the sunspot group number (Rg) on the other. These relationships were employed to produce daily records of sunspot group positions, areas, and tilt angles before 1874. The semi-synthetic records were fed into the surface flux transport model to simulate daily magnetograms since 1700. By combining the simulated magnetograms with a SATIRE-type model, we then reconstructed total solar irradiance since 1700. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800031947&hterms=Regression+analysis&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DRegression%2Banalysis','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800031947&hterms=Regression+analysis&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DRegression%2Banalysis">Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W. 1979-01-01 The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930034888&hterms=evolution+inclusions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Devolution%2Binclusions','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930034888&hterms=evolution+inclusions&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Devolution%2Binclusions">Evolution of a magnetic flux tube in two-dimensional penetrative convection</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Jennings, R. L.; Brandenburg, A.; Nordlund, A.; Stein, R. F. 1992-01-01 Highly supercritical compressible convection is simulated in a two-dimensional domain in which the upper half is unstable to convection while the lower half is stably stratified. This configuration is an idealization of the layers near the base of the solar convection zone. Once the turbulent flow is well developed, a toroidal magnetic field B sub tor is introduced to the stable layer. The field's evolution is governed by an advection-diffusion-type equation, and the Lorentz force does not significantly affect the flow. After many turnover times the field is stratified such that the absolute value of B sub tor/rho is approximately constant in the convective layer, where rho is density, while in the stable layer this ratio decreases linearly with depth. Consequently most of the magnetic flux is stored in the overshoot layer. The inclusion of rotation leads to travelling waves which transport magnetic flux latitudinally in a manner reminiscent of the migrations seen during the solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Ap%26SS.362..106P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Ap%26SS.362..106P">Latitude character and evolution of Gnevyshev gap</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pandey, K. K.; Hiremath, K. M.; Yellaiah, G. 2017-06-01 The time interval, between two highest peaks of the sunspot maximum, during which activity energy substantially absorbed is called Gnevyshev gap. In this study we focus on mysterious evolution of the Gnevyshev gap by analyzing and comparing the integrated (over the whole Sun) characteristics of magnetic field strength of sunspot groups, soft x-ray flares, filaments or prominences and polar faculae. The time latitude distribution of these solar activities from photosphere to coronal height, for the low (≤50°) and high (≥50°) latitudes, shows the way Gnevyshev gap is evolved. The presence of double peak structure is noticed in high latitude (≥50°) activity. During activity maximum the depression (or valley) appearing, in different activity processes, probably due to shifting, spreading, and transfer of energy from higher to lower latitudes with the progress of solar cycle. The morphology of successive lower latitude zones, considering it as a wave pulse, appears to be modified/scattered, by certain degree due to shifting of magnetic energy to empower higher or lower latitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916453H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916453H">Interplay between solid Earth and biological evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Höning, Dennis; Spohn, Tilman 2017-04-01 Major shifts in Earth's evolution led to progressive adaptations of the biosphere. Particularly the emergence of continents permitted efficient use of solar energy. However, the widespread evolution of the biosphere fed back to the Earth system, often argued as a cause for the great oxidation event or as an important component in stabilizing Earth's climate. Furthermore, biologically enhanced weathering rates alter the flux of sediments in subduction zones, establishing a potential link to the deep interior. Stably bound water within subducting sediments not only enhances partial melting but further affects the mantle rheology. The mantle responds by enhancing its rates of convection, water outgassing, and subduction. How crucial is the emergence and evolution of life on Earth to these processes, and how would Earth have been evolved without the emergence of life? We here discuss concepts and present models addressing these questions and discuss the biosphere as a major component in evolving Earth system feedback cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3308L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3308L">Martian Atmospheric and Ionospheric plasma Escape</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lundin, Rickard 2016-04-01 Solar forcing is responsible for the heating, ionization, photochemistry, and erosion processes in the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the terrestrial planets. Of the four terrestrial planets, the Earth is the only one with a fully developed biosphere, while our kin Venus and Mars have evolved into arid inhabitable planets. As for Mars, there are ample evidences for an early Noachian, water rich period on Mars. The question is, what made Mars evolve so differently compared to the Earth? Various hydrosphere and atmospheric evolution scenarios for Mars have been forwarded based on surface morphology, chemical composition, simulations, semi-empiric (in-situ data) models, and the long-term evolution of the Sun. Progress has been made, but the case is still open regarding the changes that led to the present arid surface and tenuous atmosphere at Mars. This presentation addresses the long-term variability of the Sun, the solar forcing impact on the Martian atmosphere, and its interaction with the space environment - an electromagnetic wave and particle interaction with the upper atmosphere that has implications for its photochemistry, composition, and energization that governs thermal and non-thermal escape. Non-thermal escape implies an electromagnetic upward energization of planetary ions and molecules to velocities above escape velocity, a process governed by a combination of solar EUV radiation (ionization), and energy and momentum transfer by the solar wind. The ion escape issue dates back to the early Soviet and US-missions to Mars, but the first more accurate estimates of escape rates came with the Phobos-2 mission in 1989. Better-quality ion composition measurement results of atmospheric/ionospheric ion escape from Mars, obtained from ESA Mars Express (MEX) instruments, have improved our understanding of the ion escape mechanism. With the NASA MAVEN spacecraft orbiting Mars since Sept. 2014, dual in-situ measurement with plasma instruments are now carried out in the Martian planetary realm. Of particular interest from a planetary atmospheric escape point of view is the long-term implications of solar forcing. From ASPERA-data on MEX it has been possible to cover the transition from cycle 23 up to the cycle 24 maximum, data displaying clear solar cycle dependence. The planetary ion escape rate increased from solar minimum to solar maximum by a factor of 10. From a regression analysis using ion escape fluxes and solar forcing proxies, a "back-casting" tool is developed [1], enabling determination of the planetary ion escape back in time based on long-term solar forcing proxies (F10.7, sunspot number). The tool may be applied to other long-term solar proxies, such as the radiogenic isotopes in the Earth's atmosphere, 10Be and 14C. The cosmic-ray production of these long-lifetime (>10000 year) isotopes is modulated by the solar-heliospheric magnetic flux, i.e. an indirect measure of solar magnetic activity. Beyond that there is so far only one additional rough "back-casting" tool, the "Sun-in-time", a method whereby the age of, EUV/UV radiation, and mass-loss of other sun-like stars are determined [2, 3]. [1] Lundin et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 23, pp. 6028-6032, 2013. [2] Wood et al., ApJ, 574:412-425, 2002. [3] Ribas et al., ApJ., 622:680-694, 2005 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005305','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005305">The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Suggs, Ronnie J. 2017-01-01 The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005301','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005301">The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Suggs, Ron 2017-01-01 The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7285N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7285N">Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund 2017-04-01 The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140003231','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140003231">The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Adams, Mitzi 2013-01-01 Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008362','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008362">Solar Cycle Predictions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell, William Dean 2012-01-01 Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780016257&hterms=corruption&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dcorruption','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780016257&hterms=corruption&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dcorruption">Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Berman, A. L. 1978-01-01 Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663007-absolute-properties-pre-main-sequence-eclipsing-binary-star-np-persei','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663007-absolute-properties-pre-main-sequence-eclipsing-binary-star-np-persei">ABSOLUTE PROPERTIES OF THE PRE-MAIN-SEQUENCE ECLIPSING BINARY STAR NP PERSEI</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg; Fekel, Francis C.; Muterspaugh, Matthew W. 2016-07-01 NP Per is a well-detached, 2.2 day eclipsing binary whose components are both pre-main-sequence stars that are still contracting toward the main-sequence phase of evolution. We report extensive photometric and spectroscopic observations with which we have determined their properties accurately. Their surface temperatures are quite different: 6420 ± 90 K for the larger F5 primary star and 4540 ± 160 K for the smaller K5e star. Their masses and radii are 1.3207 ± 0.0087 solar masses and 1.372 ± 0.013 solar radii for the primary, and 1.0456 ± 0.0046 solar masses and 1.229 ± 0.013 solar radii for the secondary. The orbital period is variable over long periods of time. A comparisonmore » of the observations with current stellar evolution models from MESA indicates that the stars cannot be fit at a single age: the secondary appears significantly younger than the primary. If the stars are assumed to be coeval and to have the age of the primary (17 Myr), then the secondary is larger and cooler than predicted by current models. The H α spectral line of the secondary component is completely filled by, presumably, chromospheric emission due to a magnetic activity cycle.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRA..116.0I34T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRA..116.0I34T">From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A. 2011-05-01 Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AIPC..748..441Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AIPC..748..441Y">Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yousef, Shahinaz M. 2005-03-01 Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..172J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..172J">Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Javaraiah, J. 2017-11-01 The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007898','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007898">Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell, W. Dean 2014-01-01 We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...849...44C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...849...44C">Long-term Study of the Solar Filaments from the Synoptic Maps as Derived from {{\\rm{H}}}_{\\alpha } Spectroheliograms of the Kodaikanal Observatory</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Hegde, Manjunath; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B. 2017-11-01 The century long (1914-2007) {{{H}}}α (656.28 nm) spectroheliograms from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KSO) have been recently digitized. Using these newly calibrated, processed images we study the evolution of dark elongated on-disk structures called filaments, which are potential representatives of magnetic activities on the Sun. To our knowledge, this is the oldest uniform digitized data set with daily images available today in {{{H}}}α . We generate Carrington maps for the entire time duration and try to find the correlations with maps of the same Carrington rotation from the Ca II K KSO data. Filaments are segmented from the Carrington maps using a semi-automated technique and are studied individually to extract their centroids and tilts. We plot the time-latitude distribution of the filament centroids, producing a butterfly diagram which clearly shows the presence of poleward migration. We separate polar filaments for each cycle and try to estimate the delay between the polar filament number cycle and the sunspot number cycle peaks. We correlate this delay with the delay between polar reversal and sunspot number maxima. This provides new insight on the role of polar filaments on polar reversal. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5480931-observations-statistical-simulations-proposed-solar-cycle-qbo-weather-relationship','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5480931-observations-statistical-simulations-proposed-solar-cycle-qbo-weather-relationship">Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J. 1989-08-01 The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890016507&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3DButterfly','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890016507&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3DButterfly">Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth H. 1988-01-01 The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356766-temporal-evolution-solar-wind-ion-composition-source-coronal-holes-during-declining-phase-cycle-low-latitude-extension-polar-coronal-holes','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356766-temporal-evolution-solar-wind-ion-composition-source-coronal-holes-during-declining-phase-cycle-low-latitude-extension-polar-coronal-holes">Temporal evolution of solar wind ion composition and their source coronal holes during the declining phase of cycle 23. I. Low-latitude extension of polar coronal holes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Ko, Yuan-Kuen; Wang, Yi-Ming; Muglach, Karin 2014-06-01 We analyzed 27 solar wind (SW) intervals during the declining phase of cycle 23, whose source coronal holes (CHs) can be unambiguously identified and are associated with one of the polar CHs. We found that the SW ions have a temporal trend of decreasing ionization state, and such a trend is different between the slow and fast SW. The photospheric magnetic field, both inside and at the outside boundary of the CH, also exhibits a trend of decrease with time. However, EUV line emissions from different layers of the atmosphere exhibit different temporal trends. The coronal emission inside the CHmore » generally increases toward the CH boundary as the underlying field increases in strength and becomes less unipolar. In contrast, this relationship is not seen in the coronal emission averaged over the entire CH. For C and O SW ions that freeze-in at lower altitude, stronger correlation between their ionization states and field strength (both signed and unsigned) appears in the slow SW, while for Fe ions that freeze-in at higher altitude, stronger correlation appears in the fast SW. Such correlations are seen both inside the CH and at its boundary region. On the other hand, the coronal electron temperature correlates well with the SW ion composition only in the boundary region. Our analyses, although not able to determine the likely footpoint locations of the SW of different speeds, raise many outstanding questions for how the SW is heated and accelerated in response to the long-term evolution of the solar magnetic field.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AMT.....7.1597N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AMT.....7.1597N">Effects of solar activity on noise in CALIOP profiles above the South Atlantic Anomaly</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Noel, V.; Chepfer, H.; Hoareau, C.; Reverdy, M.; Cesana, G. 2014-06-01 We show that nighttime dark noise measurements from the spaceborne lidar CALIOP contain valuable information about the evolution of upwelling high-energy radiation levels. Above the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), CALIOP dark noise levels fluctuate by ±6% between 2006 and 2013, and follow the known anticorrelation of local particle flux with the 11-year cycle of solar activity (with a 1-year lag). By analyzing the geographic distribution of noisy profiles, we are able to reproduce known findings about the SAA region. Over the considered period, it shifts westward by 0.3° year-1, and changes in size by 6° meridionally and 2° zonally, becoming larger with weaker solar activity. All results are in strong agreement with previous works. We predict SAA noise levels will increase anew after 2014, and will affect future spaceborne lidar missions most near 2020. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH51C2497H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH51C2497H">Measuring the Large-scale Solar Magnetic Field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hoeksema, J. T.; Scherrer, P. H.; Peterson, E.; Svalgaard, L. 2017-12-01 The Sun's large-scale magnetic field is important for determining global structure of the corona and for quantifying the evolution of the polar field, which is sometimes used for predicting the strength of the next solar cycle. Having confidence in the determination of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun is difficult because the field is often near the detection limit, various observing methods all measure something a little different, and various systematic effects can be very important. We compare resolved and unresolved observations of the large-scale magnetic field from the Wilcox Solar Observatory, Heliseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and Solis. Cross comparison does not enable us to establish an absolute calibration, but it does allow us to discover and compensate for instrument problems, such as the sensitivity decrease seen in the WSO measurements in late 2016 and early 2017. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356468-solar-wind-neon-abundance-observed-ace-swics-ulysses-swics','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22356468-solar-wind-neon-abundance-observed-ace-swics-ulysses-swics">The solar wind neon abundance observed with ACE/SWICS and ULYSSES/SWICS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Shearer, Paul; Raines, Jim M.; Lepri, Susan T. Using in situ ion spectrometry data from ACE/SWICS, we determine the solar wind Ne/O elemental abundance ratio and examine its dependence on wind speed and evolution with the solar cycle. We find that Ne/O is inversely correlated with wind speed, is nearly constant in the fast wind, and correlates strongly with solar activity in the slow wind. In fast wind streams with speeds above 600 km s{sup –1}, we find Ne/O = 0.10 ± 0.02, in good agreement with the extensive polar observations by Ulysses/SWICS. In slow wind streams with speeds below 400 km s{sup –1}, Ne/O ranges from amore » low of 0.12 ± 0.02 at solar maximum to a high of 0.17 ± 0.03 at solar minimum. These measurements place new and significant empirical constraints on the fractionation mechanisms governing solar wind composition and have implications for the coronal and photospheric abundances of neon and oxygen. The results are made possible by a new data analysis method that robustly identifies rare elements in the measured ion spectra. The method is also applied to Ulysses/SWICS data, which confirms the ACE observations and extends our view of solar wind neon into the three-dimensional heliosphere.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22518771-photoionization-solar-wind','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22518771-photoionization-solar-wind">PHOTOIONIZATION IN THE SOLAR WIND</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Landi, E.; Lepri, S. T., E-mail: elandi@umich.edu 2015-10-20 In this work we investigate the effects of photoionization on the charge state composition of the solar wind. Using measured solar EUV and X-ray irradiance, the Michigan Ionization Code and a model for the fast and slow solar wind, we calculate the evolution of the charge state distribution of He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Fe with and without including photoionization for both types of wind. We find that the solar radiation has significant effects on the charge state distribution of C, N, and O, causing the ionization levels of these elements to be higher than withoutmore » photoionization; differences are largest for oxygen. The ions commonly observed for elements heavier than O are much less affected, except in ICMEs where Fe ions more ionized than 16+ can also be affected by the solar radiation. We also show that the commonly used O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} density ratio is the most sensitive to photoionization; this sensitivity also causes the value of this ratio to depend on the phase of the solar cycle. We show that the O{sup 7+}/O{sup 6+} ratio needs to be used with caution for solar wind classification and coronal temperature estimates, and recommend the C{sup 6+}/C{sup 4+} ratio for these purposes.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...598A..35B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...598A..35B">Evolution of redback radio pulsars in globular clusters</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Benvenuto, O. G.; De Vito, M. A.; Horvath, J. E. 2017-02-01 Context. We study the evolution of close binary systems composed of a normal, intermediate mass star and a neutron star considering a chemical composition typical of that present in globular clusters (Z = 0.001). Aims: We look for similarities and differences with respect to solar composition donor stars, which we have extensively studied in the past. As a definite example, we perform an application on one of the redbacks located in a globular cluster. Methods: We performed a detailed grid of models in order to find systems that represent the so-called redback binary radio pulsar systems with donor star masses between 0.6 and 2.0 solar masses and orbital periods in the range 0.2-0.9 d. Results: We find that the evolution of these binary systems is rather similar to those corresponding to solar composition objects, allowing us to account for the occurrence of redbacks in globular clusters, as the main physical ingredient is the irradiation feedback. Redback systems are in the quasi-RLOF state, that is, almost filling their corresponding Roche lobe. During the irradiation cycle the system alternates between semi-detached and detached states. While detached the system appears as a binary millisecond pulsar, called a redback. Circumstellar material, as seen in redbacks, is left behind after the previous semi-detached phase. Conclusions: The evolution of binary radio pulsar systems considering irradiation successfully accounts for, and provides a way for, the occurrence of redback pulsars in low-metallicity environments such as globular clusters. This is the case despite possible effects of the low metal content of the donor star that could drive systems away from redback configuration. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080030284&hterms=never+eat+alone&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dnever%2Beat%2Balone','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080030284&hterms=never+eat+alone&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dnever%2Beat%2Balone">Stereo and Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kaise,r Michael L. 2008-01-01 The twin STEREO spacecrafi, launched in October 2006, are in heliocentric orbits near 4 AU with one spacecraft (Ahead) leading Earth in its orbit around the Sun and the other (Behind) trailing Earth. As viewed from the Sun, the STEREO spacecraft are continually separating from one another at about 45 degrees per year with Earth biseding the angle. At present, th@spaser=raft are a bit more than 45 degrees apart, thus they are able to each 'vie@ ground the limb's of the Sun by about 23 degrees, corresponding to about 1.75 days of solar rotation. Both spameraft contain an identical set of instruments including an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, tws all-sky imagers, a wide selection of energetic particle detectors, a magnetometer and a radio burst tracker. A snapshot of the real time data is continually broadcast to NOW-managed ground stations and this small stream of data is immediately sent to the STEREO Science Center and converted into useful space weather data within 5 minutes of ground receipt. The resulting images, particle, magnetometer and radio astronomy plots are available at j g i t , : gAs timqe conting ues ijnto . g solar cycle 24, the separation angle becomes 90 degrees in early 2009 and 180 degrees in early 201 1 as the activity heads toward maximum. By the time of solar maximum, STEREO will provide for the first time a view of the entire Sun with the mronagraphs and e*reme ultraviolet instruments. This view wilt allow us to follow the evolution of active regions continuously and also detect new active regions long before they pose a space weather threat to Earth. The in situ instruments will be able to provide about 7 days advanced notice of co-rotating structures in the solar wind. During this same intewal near solar maximum, the wide-angle imagers on STEREB will both be ;able to view EarlCP-dirsted CMEs in their plane-oPsky. When combined with Eat-lhorbiting assets available at that time, it seems solar cycle 24 will mark a great increase in our ability to understand and predict space weather. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170003802','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170003802">Hinode: A Decade of Success in Capturing Solar Activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Savage, S.; Elrod, S.; Deluca, E.; Doschek, G.; Tarbell, T. 2017-01-01 As the present solar cycle passes into its minimum phase, the Hinode mission marks its tenth year of investigating solar activity. Hinode's decade of successful observations have provided us with immeasurable insight into the solar processes that invoke space weather and thereby affect the interplanetary environment in which we reside. The mission's complementary suite of instruments allows us to probe transient, high energy events alongside long-term, cycle-dependent phenomena from magnetic fields at the Sun's surface out to highly thermalized coronal plasma enveloping active regions (ARs). These rich data sets have already changed the face of solar physics and will continue to provoke exciting research as new observational paradigms are pursued. Hinode was launched as part of the Science Mission Directorate's (SMD) Solar Terrestrial Probes Program in 2006. It is a sophisticated spacecraft equipped with a Solar Optical Telescope (SOT), an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS), and an X-Ray Telescope (XRT) (see x 4). With high resolution and sensitivity, Hinode serves as a microscope for the Sun, providing us with unique capabilities for observing magnetic fields near the smallest scales achievable, while also rendering full-Sun coronal context in the highest thermal regimes. The 2014 NASA SMD strategic goals objective to "Understand the Sun and its interactions with the Earth and the solar system, including space weather" forms the basis of three underlying Heliophysics Science Goals. While Hinode relates to all three, the observatory primarily addresses: Explore the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun to the Earth and through the solar system. Within the NASA National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey Priorities, Hinode targets: (a) Determine the origins of the Sun's activity and predict the variations of the space environment and (d) Discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the universe. In response to the 2012 NRC Decadal Survey Science Challenges and 2014 Heliophysics Roadmap Research Focus Areas, the Hinode mission has set forth four Prioritized Science Goals (PSGs): (a) Study the sources and evolution of highly energetic dynamic events; (b) Characterize cross-scale magnetic field topology and stability; (c) Trace mass and energy flow from the photosphere to the corona; and (d) Continue long term synoptic support to quantify cycle variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1326075-simulations-dynamic-solar-cycle-its-effects-interstellar-boundary-explorer-ribbon-globally-distributed-energetic-neutral-atom-flux','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1326075-simulations-dynamic-solar-cycle-its-effects-interstellar-boundary-explorer-ribbon-globally-distributed-energetic-neutral-atom-flux">Simulations of a dynamic solar cycle and its effects on the interstellar boundary explorer ribbon and globally distributed energetic neutral atom flux</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Zirnstein, E. J.; Heerikhuisen, J.; Pogorelov, N. V.; ... 2015-04-23 Observations by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) have vastly improved our understanding of the interaction between the solar wind (SW) and local interstellar medium through direct measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs); this informs us about the heliospheric conditions that produced them. An enhanced feature of flux in the sky, the so-called IBEX ribbon, was not predicted by any global models before the first IBEX observations. A dominating theory of the origin of the ribbon, although still under debate, is a secondary charge-exchange process involving secondary ENAs originating from outside the heliopause. According to this mechanism, the evolution of themore » solar cycle should be visible in the ribbon flux. Therefore, in this paper we simulate a fully time-dependent ribbon flux, as well as globally distributed flux from the inner heliosheath (IHS), using time-dependent SW parameters from Sokol et al. as boundary conditions for our time-dependent heliosphere simulation. After post-processing the results to compute H ENA fluxes, these results show that the secondary ENA ribbon indeed should be time dependent, evolving with a period of approximately 11 yr, with differences depending on the energy and direction. Our results for the IHS flux show little periodic change with the 11 yr solar cycle, but rather with short-term fluctuations in the background plasma. And, while the secondary ENA mechanism appears to emulate several key characteristics of the observed IBEX ribbon, it appears that our simulation does not yet include all of the relevant physics that produces the observed ribbon.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017DPS....4950806H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017DPS....4950806H">Boomerang Satellites</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hesselbrock, Andrew; Minton, David A. 2017-10-01 We recently reported that the orbital architecture of the Martian environment allows for material in orbit around the planet to ``cycle'' between orbiting the planet as a ring, or as coherent satellites. Here we generalize our previous analysis to examine several factors that determine whether satellites accreting at the edge of planetary rings will cycle. In order for the orbiting material to cycle, tidal evolution must decrease the semi-major axis of any accreting satellites. In some systems, the density of the ring/satellite material, the surface mass density of the ring, the tidal parameters of the system, and the rotation rate of the primary body contribute to a competition between resonant ring torques and tidal dissipation that prevent this from occurring, either permanently or temporarily. Analyzing these criteria, we examine various bodies in our solar system (such as Saturn, Uranus, and Eris) to identify systems where cycling may occur. We find that a ring-satellite cycle may give rise to the current Uranian ring-satellite system, and suggest that Miranda may have formed from an early, more massive Uranian ring. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1632K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1632K">Solar Demon: near real-time Flare, Dimming and EUV wave monitoring</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis Dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in EUV images since 1996. They are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. On the one hand, automatic detection and characterization of dimmings and EUV waves can be used to gain better understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. On the other hand, every dimming and EUV wave provides extra information on the associated front side CME, and can improve estimates of the geo-effectiveness and arrival time of the CME. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data, as well as synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will show several interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and present general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1028634','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1028634">Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 2016-12-30 Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC 20375-5320 NRL/MR/6794--16-9710 Quasi -Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux...TELEPHONE NUMBER (include area code) b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Quasi -Static Evolution, Catastrophe...evolution of solar flux ropes subject to slowly increasing magnetic energy, encompassing quasi -static evolution, “catastrophic” transition to an eruptive </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1633K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1633K">Solar Demon: near real-time solar eruptive event detection on SDO/AIA images</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis Solar flares, dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) images of the Sun since 1996. These events are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. The Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) generates such a massive dataset that it becomes impossible to find most of these eruptive events manually. Solar Demon is a set of automatic detection algorithms that attempts to solve this problem by providing both near real-time warnings of eruptive events and a catalog of characterized events. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on SDO/AIA data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data and synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will focus on the algorithm and its operational implementation. Examples of interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24 will be presented as well. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SoPh..289.2705Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SoPh..289.2705Z">Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z. 2014-07-01 Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1548G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1548G">Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan 2016-04-01 On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364954-estimate-solar-maximum-using-geostationary-operational-environmental-satellites-ray-measurements','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364954-estimate-solar-maximum-using-geostationary-operational-environmental-satellites-ray-measurements">ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.900a2012L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.900a2012L">Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L. 2017-09-01 We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhPl...25d2901E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PhPl...25d2901E">A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A. 2018-04-01 The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..83I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..83I">Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K. 2016-10-01 It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000108881','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000108881">Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W. 2000-01-01 Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.474.3912B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.474.3912B">Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Brunini, Adrián 2018-03-01 We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...63K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...63K">Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P. 2018-04-01 We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930067210&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930067210&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement">How active was solar cycle 22?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J. 1993-01-01 Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2464M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2464M">The Evolution of the Solar Magnetic Field: A Comparative Analysis of Two Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> McMichael, K. D.; Karak, B. B.; Upton, L.; Miesch, M. S.; Vierkens, O. 2017-12-01 Understanding the complexity of the solar magnetic cycle is a task that has plagued scientists for decades. However, with the help of computer simulations, we have begun to gain more insight into possible solutions to the plethora of questions inside the Sun. STABLE (Surface Transport and Babcock Leighton) is a newly developed 3D dynamo model that can reproduce features of the solar cycle. In this model, the tilted bipolar sunspots are formed on the surface (based on the toroidal field at the bottom of the convection zone) and then decay and disperse, producing the poloidal field. Since STABLE is a 3D model, it is able to solve the full induction equation in the entirety of the solar convection zone as well as incorporate many free parameters (such as spot depth and turbulent diffusion) which are difficult to observe. In an attempt to constrain some of these free parameters, we compare STABLE to a surface flux transport model called AFT (Advective Flux Transport) which solves the radial component of the magnetic field on the solar surface. AFT is a state-of-the-art surface flux transport model that has a proven record of being able to reproduce solar observations with great accuracy. In this project, we implement synthetic bipolar sunspots into both models, using identical surface parameters, and run the models for comparison. We demonstrate that the 3D structure of the sunspots in the interior and the vertical diffusion of the sunspot magnetic field play an important role in establishing the surface magnetic field in STABLE. We found that when a sufficient amount of downward magnetic pumping is included in STABLE, the surface magnetic field from this model becomes insensitive to the internal structure of the sunspot and more consistent with that of AFT. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.P11B1804W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.P11B1804W">Habitable Zone Evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Waltham, D.; Lota, J. 2012-12-01 The location of the habitable zone around a star depends upon stellar luminosity and upon the properties of a potentially habitable planet such as its mass and near-surface volatile inventory. Stellar luminosity generally increases as a star ages whilst planetary properties change through time as a consequence of biological and geological evolution. Hence, the location of the habitable zone changes through time as a result of both stellar evolution and planetary evolution. Using the Earth's Phanerozoic temperature history as a constraint, it is shown that changes in our own habitable zone over the last 540 My have been dominated by planetary evolution rather than solar evolution. Furthermore, sparse data from earlier times suggests that planetary evolution may have dominated habitable zone development throughout our biosphere's history. Hence, the existence of a continuously habitable zone depends upon accidents of complex bio-geochemical evolution more than it does upon relatively simple stellar-evolution. Evolution of the inner margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations. Evolution of the outer margin of the habitable zone through time using three different estimates for climate sensitivity. The dashed line shows a typical predicted evolution assuming this was driven simply by a steady increase in solar luminosity. Solar evolution does not account for the observations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016041','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016041">Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V. 2012-01-01 In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930071114&hterms=solar+two&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Btwo','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930071114&hterms=solar+two&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Btwo">Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F. 1991-01-01 Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.759a2069M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JPhCS.759a2069M">Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K. 2016-10-01 The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930006343','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930006343">On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wilson, Robert M. 1992-01-01 For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007277','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007277">Flux Transport and the Sun's Global Magnetic Field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hathaway, David H. 2010-01-01 The Sun s global magnetic field is produced and evolved through the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions and its transport across the solar surface by the axisymmetric differential rotation and meridional flow and the non-axisymmetric convective flows of granulation, supergranulation, and giant cell convection. Maps of the global magnetic field serve as the inner boundary condition for space weather. The photospheric magnetic field and its evolution determine the coronal and solar wind structures through which CMEs must propagate and in which solar energetic particles are accelerated and propagate. Producing magnetic maps which best represent the actual field configuration at any instant requires knowing the magnetic field over the observed hemisphere as well as knowing the flows that transport flux. From our Earth-based vantage point we only observe the front-side hemisphere and each pole is observable for only six months of the year at best. Models for the surface magnetic flux transport can be used to provide updates to the magnetic field configuration in those unseen regions. In this presentation I will describe successes and failures of surface flux transport and present new observations on the structure, the solar cycle variability, and the evolution of the flows involved in magnetic flux transport. I find that supergranules play the dominant role due to their strong flow velocities and long lifetimes. Flux is transported by differential rotation and meridional flow only to the extent that the supergranules participate in those two flows. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRA..119.7142C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRA..119.7142C">Possible modification of the cooling index of interstellar helium pickup ions by electron impact ionization in the inner heliosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chen, Jun Hong; Bochsler, Peter; Möbius, Eberhard; Gloeckler, George 2014-09-01 Interstellar neutrals penetrating into the inner heliosphere are ionized by photoionization, charge exchange with solar wind ions, and electron impact ionization. These processes comprise the first step in the evolution of interstellar pickup ion (PUI) distributions. Typically, PUI distributions have been described in terms of velocity distribution functions that cool adiabatically under solar wind expansion, with a cooling index of 3/2. Recently, the cooling index has been determined experimentally in observations of He PUI distributions with Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer and found to vary substantially over the solar cycle. The experimental determination of the cooling index depends on the knowledge of the ionization rates and their spatial variation. Usually, ionization rates increase with 1/r2 as neutral particles approach the Sun, which is not exactly true for electron impact ionization, because the electron temperature increases with decreasing distance from the Sun due to the complexity of its distributions and different radial gradients in temperature. This different dependence on distance may become important in the study of the evolution of PUI distributions and is suspected as one of the potential reasons for the observed variation of the cooling index. Therefore, we investigate in this paper the impact of electron ionization on the variability of the cooling index. We find that the deviation of the electron ionization rate from the canonical 1/r2 behavior of other ionization processes plays only a minor role. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616430G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616430G">Variability of the Martian thermospheric temperatures during the last 7 Martian Years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Lopez-Valverde, Miguel Angel; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, François 2014-05-01 The temperatures and densities in the Martian upper atmosphere have a significant influence over the different processes producing atmospheric escape. A good knowledge of the thermosphere and its variability is thus necessary in order to better understand and quantify the atmospheric loss to space and the evolution of the planet. Different global models have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the Martian thermosphere, usually considering three solar scenarios (solar minimum, solar medium and solar maximum conditions) to take into account the solar cycle variability. However, the variability of the solar activity within the simulated period of time is not usually considered in these models. We have improved the description of the UV solar flux included on the General Circulation Model for Mars developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-MGCM) in order to include its observed day-to-day variability. We have used the model to simulate the thermospheric variability during Martian Years 24 to 30, using realistic UV solar fluxes and dust opacities. The model predicts and interannual variability of the temperatures in the upper thermosphere that ranges from about 50 K during the aphelion to up to 150 K during perihelion. The seasonal variability of temperatures due to the eccentricity of the Martian orbit is modified by the variability of the solar flux within a given Martian year. The solar rotation cycle produces temperature oscillations of up to 30 K. We have also studied the response of the modeled thermosphere to the global dust storms in Martian Year 25 and Martian Year 28. The atmospheric dynamics are significantly modified by the global dust storms, which induces significant changes in the thermospheric temperatures. The response of the model to the presence of both global dust storms is in good agreement with previous modeling results (Medvedev et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013). As expected, the simulated ionosphere is also sensitive to the variability of the solar activity. Acknowledgemnt: Francisco González-Galindo is funded by a CSIC JAE-Doc contract financed by the European Social Fund </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22370310-prediction-solar-activity-from-solar-background-magnetic-field-variations-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22370310-prediction-solar-activity-from-solar-background-magnetic-field-variations-cycles">Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk 2014-11-01 A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170010267','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170010267">Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S. 2017-01-01 The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950047865&hterms=dynamo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Ddynamo','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950047865&hterms=dynamo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Ddynamo">An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean 1993-01-01 In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11539465','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11539465">An estimate of the prevalence of biocompatible and habitable planets.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fogg, M J 1992-01-01 A Monte Carlo computer model of extra-solar planetary formation and evolution, which includes the planetary geochemical carbon cycle, is presented. The results of a run of one million galactic disc stars are shown where the aim was to assess the possible abundance of both biocompatible and habitable planets. (Biocompatible planets are defined as worlds where the long-term presence of surface liquid water provides environmental conditions suitable for the origin and evolution of life. Habitable planets are those worlds with more specifically Earthlike conditions). The model gives an estimate of 1 biocompatible planet per 39 stars, with the subset of habitable planets being much rarer at 1 such planet per 413 stars. The nearest biocompatible planet may thus lie approximately 14 LY distant and the nearest habitable planet approximately 31 LY away. If planets form in multiple star systems then the above planet/star ratios may be more than doubled. By applying the results to stars in the solar neighbourhood, it is possible to identify 28 stars at distances of < 22 LY with a non-zero probability of possessing a biocompatible planet. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2469M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2469M">A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C. 2017-12-01 To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1440.1281A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1440.1281A">Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F. 2012-06-01 The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780021085','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780021085">A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M. 1978-01-01 On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH53A2555H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH53A2555H">Dependence of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field on Heliocentric Distance between 0.3 and 1.7 AU from MESSENGER, ACE and MAVEN data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hanneson, C.; Johnson, C.; Al Asad, M. 2017-12-01 Magnetometer data from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER), Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft were used to characterize the variation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with heliocentric distance from 0.3 to 1.7 AU. MESSENGER and ACE data form a set of simultaneous observations that spans eight years, from March 2007 until April 2015, with ACE observations continuing until the present. MAVEN data have been collected since November 2014. Furthermore, for the period 2008-2015, MESSENGER and ACE observations were taken over the same range of heliocentric distances: 0.31-0.47 AU and 0.94-1.00 AU respectively. The IMF varies with the solar sunspot cycle, and so data taken simultaneously at different heliocentric distances allow solar-cycle effects to be decoupled from the radial evolution of the IMF. The data were averaged temporally by taking 1-hour means, and median values were then computed in 0.01-AU bins. For the time interval spanned by all observations, the median value of the magnitude of the IMF decreases steadily from 30.1 nT at 0.3 AU to 4.3 nT at 1.0 AU and 2.5 nT at 1.6 AU. The magnitude of the IMF was found to decay with heliocentric distance according to an inverse power law with an exponent equal to the adiabatic index for an ideal monatomic gas, 5/3, within 95% confidence limits. The magnitude of the radial component decays with distance as an inverse square law within 95% confidence limits. We also consider temporal variations of the heliocentric-dependence of the IMF over the current solar cycle by computing power law fits to the simultaneous MESSENGER and ACE observations using a moving window. Our study complements the recent study of Gruesbeck et al. (2017) that used Juno data to consider the variation in IMF properties over the heliocentric distance range 1 to 6 AU. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21313770-solar-cycle-lost-early-sunspot-observations-resolve-old-mystery','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21313770-solar-cycle-lost-early-sunspot-observations-resolve-old-mystery">A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer 2009-08-01 Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014Ge%26Ae..54..633G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014Ge%26Ae..54..633G">Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gruzdev, A. N. 2014-09-01 Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080012524&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080012524&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement">The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula 2008-01-01 The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...534A..47C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011A%26A...534A..47C">Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19-23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chen, A. Q.; Wang, J. X.; Li, J. W.; Feynman, J.; Zhang, J. 2011-10-01 Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims: We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods: We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21-23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19-23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19-23 are studied statistically. Results: Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21-23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. The latitudinal distributions of SARs display the Maunder butterfly diagrams and SARs occur preferentially in the maximum period of each solar cycle. Northern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 19 and 20 and southern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 21 and 22. In solar cycle 23, however, SARs occurred about equally in each hemisphere. There are two active longitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, about 160°-200° apart. Applying the improved dynamic reference frame to SARs, we find that SARs rotate faster than the Carrington rate and there is no significant difference between the two hemispheres. The synodic periods are 27.19 days and 27.25 days for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The longitudinal distribution of SARs is significantly non-axisymmetric and about 75% SARs occurred near two active longitudes with half widths of 45°. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22092288-analysis-seeing-induced-polarization-cross-talk-modulation-scheme-performance','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22092288-analysis-seeing-induced-polarization-cross-talk-modulation-scheme-performance">ANALYSIS OF SEEING-INDUCED POLARIZATION CROSS-TALK AND MODULATION SCHEME PERFORMANCE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Casini, R.; De Wijn, A. G.; Judge, P. G. 2012-09-20 We analyze the generation of polarization cross-talk in Stokes polarimeters by atmospheric seeing, and its effects on the noise statistics of spectropolarimetric measurements for both single-beam and dual-beam instruments. We investigate the time evolution of seeing-induced correlations between different states of one modulation cycle and compare the response to these correlations of two popular polarization modulation schemes in a dual-beam system. Extension of the formalism to encompass an arbitrary number of modulation cycles enables us to compare our results with earlier work. Even though we discuss examples pertinent to solar physics, the general treatment of the subject and its fundamentalmore » results might be useful to a wider community.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EP%26S...69...70W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EP%26S...69...70W">Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Watari, Shinichi 2017-05-01 Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21452860-effect-activity-related-meridional-flow-modulation-strength-solar-polar-magnetic-field','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21452860-effect-activity-related-meridional-flow-modulation-strength-solar-polar-magnetic-field">THE EFFECT OF ACTIVITY-RELATED MERIDIONAL FLOW MODULATION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOLAR POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schmitt, D. We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar caps. We carried out simulations of synthetic solar cycles with a flux transport model, which follows the cyclic evolution of the surface field determined by flux emergence and advective transport by near-surface flows. In each hemisphere, an axisymmetric band of latitudinal flows converging toward the central latitude of the activity belt was superposed onto the background poleward meridional flow. The overall effect of the flow perturbation is tomore » reduce the latitudinal separation of the magnetic polarities of a bipolar magnetic region and thus diminish its contribution to the polar field. As a result, the polar field maximum reached around cycle activity minimum is weakened by the presence of the meridional flow perturbation. For a flow perturbation consistent with helioseismic observations, the polar field is reduced by about 18% compared to the case without inflows. If the amplitude of the flow perturbation depends on the cycle strength, its effect on the polar field provides a nonlinearity that could contribute to limiting the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton type dynamo.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA335155','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA335155">Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 1979-05-01 Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050070873','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050070873">The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V. 2004-01-01 A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780057696&hterms=1956&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3D%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%2B%253F.%2B%253F.%2B%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%2B%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F.%2B%253F.%2B1956','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780057696&hterms=1956&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3D%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%2B%253F.%2B%253F.%2B%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%2B%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F%253F.%2B%253F.%2B1956">Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Reedy, R. C. 1977-01-01 The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...607L...2I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...607L...2I">Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D. 2017-11-01 Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA54A..03W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA54A..03W">Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P. 2016-12-01 HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080012635','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080012635">Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean 2007-01-01 We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070032658','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070032658">Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth 2007-01-01 We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006451','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006451">DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I. 2013-01-01 It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012IzAOP..48..706O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012IzAOP..48..706O">Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N. 2012-12-01 As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040031767','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040031767">Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richon, K.; Schatten, K. 2003-01-01 We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSM13B2203T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSM13B2203T">Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C. 2016-12-01 The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840005021','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840005021">Solar cycle variations of the solar wind</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Crooker, N. U. 1983-01-01 Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4295037','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4295037">Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete 2012-01-01 The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663416-understanding-solar-cycle-variability','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663416-understanding-solar-cycle-variability">Understanding Solar Cycle Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950037083&hterms=mass+fraction&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dmass%2Bfraction','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950037083&hterms=mass+fraction&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dmass%2Bfraction">The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A. 1994-01-01 Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.3103T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.3103T">Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli 2014-05-01 Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE.109G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE.109G">The Evolution of Active Regions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Green, Lucie 2016-10-01 The solar corona is a highly dynamic environment which exhibits the largest releases of energy in the Solar System in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections. This activity predominantly originates from active regions, which store and release free magnetic energy and dominate the magnetic face of the Sun. Active regions can be long-lived features, being affected by the Sun's convective flows, differential rotation and meridional flows. The Sun's global coronal field can be seen as the superposed growth and subsequent diffusion of all previously formed active regions. This talk will look at active regions as an observable product of the solar dynamo and will discuss the physical processes that are at play which lead to the storage and release of free magnetic energy. What happens to flux that emerges into the corona so that it goes down an evolutionary path that leads to dynamic activity? And how does this activity vary with active region age? When an active region reaches the end of its lifetime, his much of the magnetic flux is recycled back into subsequent solar cycles? The current status of observations and modelling will be reviewed with a look to the future and fundamental questions that are still be be answered. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153..171X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153..171X">Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C. 2017-04-01 Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U24A..04F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U24A..04F">Whole Planet Coupling from Climate to Core: Implications for the Evolution of Rocky Planets and their Prospects for Habitability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Foley, B. J.; Driscoll, P. E. 2015-12-01 Many factors have conspired to make Earth a home to complex life. Earth has abundant water due to a combination of factors, including orbital distance and the climate regulating feedbacks of the long-term carbon cycle. Earth has plate tectonics, which is crucial for maintaining long-term carbon cycling and may have been an important energy source for the origin of life in seafloor hydrothermal systems. Earth also has a strong magnetic field that shields the atmosphere from the solar wind and the surface from high-energy particles. Synthesizing recent work on these topics shows that water, a temperate climate, plate tectonics, and a strong magnetic field are linked together through a series of negative feedbacks that stabilize the system over geologic timescales. Although the physical mechanism behind plate tectonics on Earth is still poorly understood, climate is thought to be important. In particular, temperate surface temperatures are likely necessary for plate tectonics because they allow for liquid water that may be capable of significantly lowering lithospheric strength, increase convective stresses in the lithosphere, and enhance the effectiveness of "damage" processes such as grainsize reduction. Likewise, plate tectonics is probably crucial for maintaining a temperate climate on Earth through its role in facilitating the long-term carbon cycle, which regulates atmospheric CO2 levels. Therefore, the coupling between plate tectonics and climate is a feedback that is likely of first order importance for the evolution of rocky planets. Finally, plate tectonics is thought to be important for driving the geodynamo. Plate tectonics efficiently cools the mantle, leading to vigorous thermo-chemical convection in the outer core and dynamo action; without plate tectonics inefficient mantle cooling beneath a stagnant lid may prevent a long-lived magnetic field. As the magnetic field shields a planet's atmosphere from the solar wind, the magnetic field may be important for preserving hydrogen, and therefore water, on the surface. Thus whole planet coupling between the magnetic field, atmosphere, mantle, and core is possible. We lay out the basic physics governing whole planet coupling, and discuss the implications this coupling has for the evolution of rocky planets and their prospects for hosting life. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080043898&hterms=anticipation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Danticipation','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080043898&hterms=anticipation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Danticipation">If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell. William Dean 2008-01-01 Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21574787-time-distributions-large-small-sunspot-groups-over-four-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21574787-time-distributions-large-small-sunspot-groups-over-four-solar-cycles">TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V. 2011-04-10 Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAMES...7..806P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAMES...7..806P">Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R. 2015-06-01 The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..04W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..04W">Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Woods, T. N. 2017-12-01 The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009DPS....41.1609W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009DPS....41.1609W">A Dedicated Space Observatory For Time-domain Solar System Science</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wong, Michael H.; Ádámkovics, M.; Benecchi, S.; Bjoraker, G.; Clarke, J. T.; de Pater, I.; Hendrix, A. R.; Marchis, F.; McGrath, M.; Noll, K.; Rages, K. A.; Retherford, K.; Smith, E. H.; Strange, N. J. 2009-09-01 Time-variable phenomena with scales ranging from minutes to decades have led to a large fraction of recent advances in many aspects of solar system science. We present the scientific motivation for a dedicated space observatory for solar system science. This facility will ideally conduct repeated imaging and spectroscopic observations over a period of 10 years or more. It will execute a selection of long-term projects with interleaved scheduling, resulting in the acquisition of data sets with consistent calibration, long baselines, and optimized sampling intervals. A sparse aperture telescope would be an ideal configuration for the mission, trading decreased sensitivity for reduced payload mass, while preserving spatial resolution. Ultraviolet capability is essential, especially once the Hubble Space Telescope retires. Specific investigations will include volcanism and cryovolcanism (on targets including Io, Titan, Venus, Mars, and Enceladus); zonal flow, vortices, and storm evolution on the giant planets; seasonal cycles in planetary atmospheres; mutual events and orbit determination of multiple small solar system bodies; auroral activity and solar wind interactions; and cometary evolution. The mission will produce a wealth of data products--such as multi-year time-lapse movies of planetary atmospheres--with significant education and public outreach potential. Existing and planned ground- and space-based facilities are not suitable for these time-domain optimized planetary dynamics studies for numerous reasons, including: oversubscription by astrophysical users, field-of-regard limitations, sensitive detector saturation limits that preclude bright planetary targets, and limited mission duration. The abstract author list is a preliminary group of scientists who have shown interest in prior presentations on this topic; interested parties may contact the lead author by 1 September to sign the associated Planetary Science Decadal Survey white paper or by 1 October to co-author the printed DPS poster. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750024923','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750024923">H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Mcintosh, P. S. 1975-01-01 Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365774-constraining-solar-flare-differential-emission-measures-eve-rhessi','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22365774-constraining-solar-flare-differential-emission-measures-eve-rhessi">CONSTRAINING SOLAR FLARE DIFFERENTIAL EMISSION MEASURES WITH EVE AND RHESSI</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Caspi, Amir; McTiernan, James M.; Warren, Harry P. 2014-06-20 Deriving a well-constrained differential emission measure (DEM) distribution for solar flares has historically been difficult, primarily because no single instrument is sensitive to the full range of coronal temperatures observed in flares, from ≲2 to ≳50 MK. We present a new technique, combining extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectra from the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory with X-ray spectra from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), to derive, for the first time, a self-consistent, well-constrained DEM for jointly observed solar flares. EVE is sensitive to ∼2-25 MK thermal plasma emission, and RHESSI to ≳10 MK; together, the twomore » instruments cover the full range of flare coronal plasma temperatures. We have validated the new technique on artificial test data, and apply it to two X-class flares from solar cycle 24 to determine the flare DEM and its temporal evolution; the constraints on the thermal emission derived from the EVE data also constrain the low energy cutoff of the non-thermal electrons, a crucial parameter for flare energetics. The DEM analysis can also be used to predict the soft X-ray flux in the poorly observed ∼0.4-5 nm range, with important applications for geospace science.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113364M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113364M">Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I. 2009-04-01 The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5445024-solar-cycle-dependence-location-shape-venus-bow-shock','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5445024-solar-cycle-dependence-location-shape-venus-bow-shock">The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T. 1990-09-01 From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JSMEB..48..540Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JSMEB..48..540Z">A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170011530','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170011530">Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S. 2017-01-01 The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1085G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E1085G">Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gruzdev, Aleksandr Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAsGe...7...15H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAsGe...7...15H">Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A. 2018-06-01 Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110023422','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110023422">Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P. 2011-01-01 Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...10633325C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...10633325C">Experimental and theoretical studies on the gas/solid/gas transformation cycle in extraterrestrial environments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cottin, Hervé; Gazeau, Marie-Claire; Chaquin, Patrick; Raulin, François; Bénilan, Yves 2001-12-01 The ubiquity of molecular material in the universe, from hydrogen to complex organic matter, is the result of intermixed physicochemical processes that have occurred throughout history. In particular, the gas/solid/gas phase transformation cycle plays a key role in chemical evolution of organic matter from the interstellar medium to planetary systems. This paper focuses on two examples that are representative of the diversity of environments where such transformations occur in the Solar System: (1) the photolytic evolution from gaseous to solid material in methane containing planetary atmospheres and (2) the degradation of high molecular weight compounds into gas phase molecules in comets. We are currently developing two programs which couple experimental and theoretical studies. The aim of this research is to provide data necessary to build models in order to better understand (1) the photochemical evolution of Titan's atmosphere, through a laboratory program to determine quantitative spectroscopic data on long carbon chain molecules (polyynes) obtained in the SCOOP program (French acronym for Spectroscopy of Organic Compounds Oriented for Planetology), and (2) the extended sources in comets, through a laboratory program of quantitative studies of photochemical and thermal degradation processes on relevant polymers (e.g., Polyoxymethylene) by the SEMAPhOrE Cometaire program (French acronym for Experimental Simulation and Modeling Applied to Organic Chemistry in Cometary Environment). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012cosp...39..418D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012cosp...39..418D">A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dasi Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Jiang, Jie 2012-07-01 Solar irradiance is one of the important drivers of the Earth's global climate, but it has only been measured for the past 33 years. Its reconstructions are therefore crucial to study longer term variations relevant to climate timescales. Most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations have being the models that are based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these, which uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. To reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. The concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles is used to describe the secular change in the irradiance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820017193','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820017193">Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wilson, R. M. 1982-01-01 Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...10621569D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...10621569D">Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P. 2001-10-01 The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006417','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006417">DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I. 2013-01-01 It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040171393','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040171393">The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V. 2004-01-01 "Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890035341&hterms=soup&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DTitle%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dsoup','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890035341&hterms=soup&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DTitle%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dsoup">Statistical properties of solar granulation derived from the SOUP instrument on Spacelab 2</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Title, A. M.; Tarbell, T. D.; Topka, K. P.; Ferguson, S. H.; Shine, R. A. 1989-01-01 Computer algorithms and statistical techniques were used to identify, measure, and quantify the properties of solar granulation derived from movies collected by the Solar Optical Universal Polarimeter on Spacelab 2. The results show that there is neither a typical solar granule nor a typical granule evolution. A granule's evolution is dependent on local magnetic flux density, its position with respect to the active region plage, its position in the mesogranulation pattern, and the evolution of granules in its immediate neighborhood. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4820001T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4820001T">Magnetic Properties of Solar Active Regions that Govern Large Solar Flares and Eruptions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Toriumi, Shin; Schrijver, Carolus J.; Harra, Louise; Hudson, Hugh S.; Nagashima, Kaori 2017-08-01 Strong flares and CMEs are often produced from active regions (ARs). In order to better understand the magnetic properties and evolutions of such ARs, we conducted statistical investigations on the SDO/HMI and AIA data of all flare events with GOES levels >M5.0 within 45 deg from the disk center for 6 years from May 2010 (from the beginning to the declining phase of solar cycle 24). Out of the total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, more than 80% have delta-sunspots and about 15% violate Hale’s polarity rule. We obtained several key findings including (1) the flare duration is linearly proportional to the separation of the flare ribbons (i.e., scale of reconnecting magnetic fields) and (2) CME-eruptive events have smaller sunspot areas. Depending on the magnetic properties, flaring ARs can be categorized into several groups, such as spot-spot, in which a highly-sheared polarity inversion line is formed between two large sunspots, and spot-satellite, where a newly-emerging flux next to a mature sunspot triggers a compact flare event. These results point to the possibility that magnetic structures of the ARs determine the characteristics of flares and CMEs. In the presentation, we will also show new results from the systematic flux emergence simulations of delta-sunspot formation and discuss the evolution processes of flaring ARs. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364305-observations-modeling-north-south-asymmetries-using-flux-transport-dynamo','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22364305-observations-modeling-north-south-asymmetries-using-flux-transport-dynamo">OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi 2015-02-01 The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.1213L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.1213L">Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPS...378..311S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPS...378..311S">New battery model considering thermal transport and partial charge stationary effects in photovoltaic off-grid applications</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sanz-Gorrachategui, Iván; Bernal, Carlos; Oyarbide, Estanis; Garayalde, Erik; Aizpuru, Iosu; Canales, Jose María; Bono-Nuez, Antonio 2018-02-01 The optimization of the battery pack in an off-grid Photovoltaic application must consider the minimum sizing that assures the availability of the system under the worst environmental conditions. Thus, it is necessary to predict the evolution of the state of charge of the battery under incomplete daily charging and discharging processes and fluctuating temperatures over day-night cycles. Much of previous development work has been carried out in order to model the short term evolution of battery variables. Many works focus on the on-line parameter estimation of available charge, using standard or advanced estimators, but they are not focused on the development of a model with predictive capabilities. Moreover, normally stable environmental conditions and standard charge-discharge patterns are considered. As the actual cycle-patterns differ from the manufacturer's tests, batteries fail to perform as expected. This paper proposes a novel methodology to model these issues, with predictive capabilities to estimate the remaining charge in a battery after several solar cycles. A new non-linear state space model is proposed as a basis, and the methodology to feed and train the model is introduced. The new methodology is validated using experimental data, providing only 5% of error at higher temperatures than the nominal one. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070025111','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070025111">Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hung, Ching-Cheh 2007-01-01 A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA51B2418K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA51B2418K">Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuroda, Y. 2016-12-01 Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...76W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...76W">Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin 2018-05-01 The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412484C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412484C">Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu 2017-12-01 Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CliPa..13.1695G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CliPa..13.1695G">Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Victor 2017-11-01 In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial-interglacial cycles are still not fully understood - in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400 000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000ApJ...543.1027C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000ApJ...543.1027C">Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi 2000-11-01 We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSWSC...6A..40M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSWSC...6A..40M">Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L. 2016-12-01 Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27656102','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27656102">Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Silva, H G; Lopes, I Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126712-hemispheric-asymmetries-polar-solar-wind-observed-ulysses-near-minima-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126712-hemispheric-asymmetries-polar-solar-wind-observed-ulysses-near-minima-solar-cycles">HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I. 2013-05-10 We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800014290','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800014290">Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T. 1980-01-01 Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3182551','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3182551">Another place, another timer: Marine species and the rhythms of life</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Tessmar-Raible, Kristin; Raible, Florian; Arboleda, Enrique 2011-01-01 The marine ecosystem is governed by a multitude of environmental cycles, all of which are linked to the periodical recurrence of the sun or the moon. In accordance with these cycles, marine species exhibit a variety of biological rhythms, ranging from circadian and circatidal rhythms to circalunar and seasonal rhythms. However, our current molecular understanding of biological rhythms and clocks is largely restricted to solar-controlled circadian and seasonal rhythms in land model species. Here, we discuss the first molecular data emerging for circalunar and circatidal rhythms and present selected species suitable for further molecular analyses. We argue that a re-focus on marine species will be crucial to understand the principles, interactions and evolution of rhythms that govern a broad range of eukaryotes, including ourselves. PMID:21254149 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015A%26A...578A.101K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015A%26A...578A.101K">Spot evolution on the red giant star XX Triangulum. A starspot-decay analysis based on time-series Doppler imaging</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Künstler, A.; Carroll, T. A.; Strassmeier, K. G. 2015-06-01 Context. Solar spots appear to decay linearly proportional to their size. The decay rate of solar spots is directly related to magnetic diffusivity, which itself is a key quantity for the length of a magnetic-activity cycle. Is a linear spot decay also seen on other stars, and is this in agreement with the large range of solar and stellar activity cycle lengths? Aims: We investigate the evolution of starspots on the rapidly-rotating (Prot≈24 d) K0 giant XX Tri, using consecutive time-series Doppler images. Our aim is to obtain a well-sampled movie of the stellar surface over many years, and thereby detect and quantify a starspot decay law for further comparison with the Sun. Methods: We obtained continuous high-resolution and phase-resolved spectroscopy with the 1.2-m robotic STELLA telescope on Tenerife over six years, and these observations are ongoing. For each observing season, we obtained between 5 to 7 independent Doppler images, one per stellar rotation, making up a total of 36 maps. All images were reconstructed with our line-profile inversion code iMap. A wavelet analysis was implemented for denoising the line profiles. To quantify starspot area decay and growth, we match the observed images with simplified spot models based on a Monte Carlo approach. Results: It is shown that the surface of XX Tri is covered with large high-latitude and even polar spots and with occasional small equatorial spots. Just over the course of six years, we see a systematically changing spot distribution with various timescales and morphology, such as spot fragmentation and spot merging as well as spot decay and formation. An average linear decay of D = -0.022 ± 0.002 SH/day is inferred. We found evidence of an active longitude in phase toward the (unseen) companion star. Furthermore, we detect a weak solar-like differential rotation with a surface shear of α = 0.016 ± 0.003. From the decay rate, we determine a turbulent diffusivity of ηT = (6.3 ± 0.5) × 1014 cm2/s and predict a magnetic activity cycle of ≈26 ± 6 yr. Finally, we present a short movie of the spatially resolved surface of XX Tri. Based on data obtained with the STELLA robotic telescopes in Tenerife, an AIP facility jointly operated with IAC.Appendices and the movie are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1734p0008H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1734p0008H">The effects of solarization on the performance of a gas turbine</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Homann, Christiaan; van der Spuy, Johan; von Backström, Theodor 2016-05-01 Various hybrid solar gas turbine configurations exist. The Stellenbosch University Solar Power Thermodynamic (SUNSPOT) cycle consists of a heliostat field, solar receiver, primary Brayton gas turbine cycle, thermal storage and secondary Rankine steam cycle. This study investigates the effect of the solarization of a gas turbine on its performance and details the integration of a gas turbine into a solar power plant. A Rover 1S60 gas turbine was modelled in Flownex, a thermal-fluid system simulation and design code, and validated against a one-dimensional thermodynamic model at design input conditions. The performance map of a newly designed centrifugal compressor was created and implemented in Flownex. The effect of the improved compressor on the performance of the gas turbine was evident. The gas turbine cycle was expanded to incorporate different components of a CSP plant, such as a solar receiver and heliostat field. The solarized gas turbine model simulates the gas turbine performance when subjected to a typical variation in solar resource. Site conditions at the Helio100 solar field were investigated and the possibility of integrating a gas turbine within this system evaluated. Heat addition due to solar irradiation resulted in a decreased fuel consumption rate. The influence of the additional pressure drop over the solar receiver was evident as it leads to decreased net power output. The new compressor increased the overall performance of the gas turbine and compensated for pressure losses incurred by the addition of solar components. The simulated integration of the solarized gas turbine at Helio100 showed potential, although the solar irradiation is too little to run the gas turbine on solar heat alone. The simulation evaluates the feasibility of solarizing a gas turbine and predicts plant performance for such a turbine cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...604A...8V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...604A...8V">Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations. II. Testing the surface flux transport model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Virtanen, I. O. I.; Virtanen, I. I.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Yeates, A.; Mursula, K. 2017-07-01 Aims: We aim to use the surface flux transport model to simulate the long-term evolution of the photospheric magnetic field from historical observations. In this work we study the accuracy of the model and its sensitivity to uncertainties in its main parameters and the input data. Methods: We tested the model by running simulations with different values of meridional circulation and supergranular diffusion parameters, and studied how the flux distribution inside active regions and the initial magnetic field affected the simulation. We compared the results to assess how sensitive the simulation is to uncertainties in meridional circulation speed, supergranular diffusion, and input data. We also compared the simulated magnetic field with observations. Results: We find that there is generally good agreement between simulations and observations. Although the model is not capable of replicating fine details of the magnetic field, the long-term evolution of the polar field is very similar in simulations and observations. Simulations typically yield a smoother evolution of polar fields than observations, which often include artificial variations due to observational limitations. We also find that the simulated field is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in model parameters or the input data. Due to the decay term included in the model the effects of the uncertainties are somewhat minor or temporary, lasting typically one solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013chci.book.....S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013chci.book.....S">Centennial History of the Carnegie Institution of Washington</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sandage, Allan 2013-01-01 Foreword Richard A. Meserve; Acknowledgements; Prologue; Part I. Before the Beginning (1542-1904): 1. A telegram; 2. The origin of a name; 3. Three observatories for Mount Wilson before the real one; 4. The creation of the Carnegie Institution and its initial Astronomy Advisory Committee; Part II. Creation of the Observatory and the First Scientific Results: 5. The instruments of detection: solar telescopes, coelostats, spectrographs and spectra; 6. Snow, hale, frost and gale: just the right people to study storms on the sun; 7. Tower telescopes and magnetic fields and cycles; 8. Pioneers of peering: the scientific staff in the early years (1904-9); 9. Solar physics: the intermediate years (1910-30); 10. Yet more solar physics: motions on the surface, clocks in the gravity field and the reality of prominences; Part III. The Beginning of Nighttime Sidereal Astronomy at Mount Wilson: 11. The coming of the 60-inch and 100-inch reflectors; 12. Life on the mountain; 13. Anatomy of an observatory; Part IV. Preparation for an Understanding of Stellar Evolution and Galactic Structure: 14. Galactic structure in the raw; 15. Spectral classification and the invention of spectroscopic parallaxes; 16. Radial velocity; 17. Globular star clusters and the galactocentric revolution; 18. Galactic rotation: Stromberg, Lindblad and Oort; 19. The Carnegie Meridian Astrometry Department at the Dudley Observatory; 20. Absolute magnitudes from direct parallaxes and stellar motions; 21. Threads leading to the population concept that became the fabric of evolution; Part V. Physics of the Stars and the Interstellar Medium: 22. Five problems in astrophysics; 23. Long-term research associates and short-term visitors; 24. Interstellar gas, instruments and the spiral arms of the galaxy; Part VI. Observational Cosmology and the Code of Stellar Evolution: 25. Observational cosmology I: galaxy classification and the discovery of cepheids; 26. Observational cosmology II: the expansion of the universe and the search for the curvature of space; 27. Down more corridors of time; 28. The observational approach to stellar evolution; Epilogue; Abbreviations; Notes; Bibliography; Index. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005chci.book.....S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005chci.book.....S">Centennial History of the Carnegie Institution of Washington</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sandage, Allan 2005-03-01 Foreword Richard A. Meserve; Acknowledgements; Prologue; Part I. Before the Beginning (1542-1904): 1. A telegram; 2. The origin of a name; 3. Three observatories for Mount Wilson before the real one; 4. The creation of the Carnegie Institution and its initial Astronomy Advisory Committee; Part II. Creation of the Observatory and the First Scientific Results: 5. The instruments of detection: solar telescopes, coelostats, spectrographs and spectra; 6. Snow, hale, frost and gale: just the right people to study storms on the sun; 7. Tower telescopes and magnetic fields and cycles; 8. Pioneers of peering: the scientific staff in the early years (1904-9); 9. Solar physics: the intermediate years (1910-30); 10. Yet more solar physics: motions on the surface, clocks in the gravity field and the reality of prominences; Part III. The Beginning of Nighttime Sidereal Astronomy at Mount Wilson: 11. The coming of the 60-inch and 100-inch reflectors; 12. Life on the mountain; 13. Anatomy of an observatory; Part IV. Preparation for an Understanding of Stellar Evolution and Galactic Structure: 14. Galactic structure in the raw; 15. Spectral classification and the invention of spectroscopic parallaxes; 16. Radial velocity; 17. Globular star clusters and the galactocentric revolution; 18. Galactic rotation: Stromberg, Lindblad and Oort; 19. The Carnegie Meridian Astrometry Department at the Dudley Observatory; 20. Absolute magnitudes from direct parallaxes and stellar motions; 21. Threads leading to the population concept that became the fabric of evolution; Part V. Physics of the Stars and the Interstellar Medium: 22. Five problems in astrophysics; 23. Long-term research associates and short-term visitors; 24. Interstellar gas, instruments and the spiral arms of the galaxy; Part VI. Observational Cosmology and the Code of Stellar Evolution: 25. Observational cosmology I: galaxy classification and the discovery of cepheids; 26. Observational cosmology II: the expansion of the universe and the search for the curvature of space; 27. Down more corridors of time; 28. The observational approach to stellar evolution; Epilogue; Abbreviations; Notes; Bibliography; Index. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JASTP.170...21L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JASTP.170...21L">Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan 2018-05-01 As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19730060255&hterms=Krieger&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3DKrieger','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19730060255&hterms=Krieger&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3DKrieger">X-ray observations of characteristic structures and time variations from the solar corona - Preliminary results from Skylab.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Vaiana, G. S.; Davis, J. M.; Giacconi, R.; Krieger, A. S.; Silk, J. K.; Timothy, A. F.; Zombeck, M. 1973-01-01 Examples taken from the S-054 X-ray telescope observations made during the first Skylab mission show the hot coronal plasma tracing the configuration of the magnetic fields. The high spectral resolution and sensitivity of the instrument has enabled the following two facts to be more firmly established: (1) that the 'quiet homogeneous corona' is in fact highly structured and that the structures observed appear to be the results of dispersed active region magnetic fields; and (2) that numerous bright points are distributed randomly on the disk. Their presence at high latitudes may play a role in solar cycle models. In addition, the capability of Skylab for studying time evolution has enabled the restructuring of coronal features to be seen at times of high activity, indicating a restructuring of the coronal magnetic fields. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH43B2814O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH43B2814O">Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K. 2017-12-01 Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820039443&hterms=organic+chemistry&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dorganic%2Bchemistry','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820039443&hterms=organic+chemistry&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dorganic%2Bchemistry">Organic chemical evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chang, S. 1981-01-01 The course of organic chemical evolution preceding the emergence of life on earth is discussed based on evidence of processes occurring in interstellar space, the solar system and the primitive earth. Following a brief review of the equilibrium condensation model for the origin and evolution of the solar system, consideration is given to the nature and organic chemistry of interstellar clouds, comets, Jupiter, meteorites, Venus and Mars, and the prebiotic earth. Major issues to be resolved in the study of organic chemical evolution on earth are identified regarding condensation and accretion in the solar nebula, early geological evolution, the origin and evolution of the atmosphere, organic production rates, organic-inorganic interactions, environmental fluctuations, phase separation and molecular selectivity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25685425','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25685425">How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G 2013-05-01 The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA21A2506N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA21A2506N">Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R. 2017-12-01 Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070034012&hterms=dynamo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddynamo','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070034012&hterms=dynamo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddynamo">Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. 2007-01-01 We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002HMT....39...47A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002HMT....39...47A">Numerical modelling of heat and mass transfer in adsorption solar reactor of ammonia on active carbon</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aroudam, El. H. In this paper, we present a modelling of the performance of a reactor of a solar cooling machine based carbon-ammonia activated bed. Hence, for a solar radiation, measured in the Energetic Laboratory of the Faculty of Sciences in Tetouan (northern Morocco), the proposed model computes the temperature distribution, the pressure and the ammonia concentration within the activated carbon bed. The Dubinin-Radushkevich formula is used to compute the ammonia concentration distribution and the daily cycled mass necessary to produce a cooling effect for an ideal machine. The reactor is heated at a maximum temperature during the day and cool at the night. A numerical simulation is carried out employing the recorded solar radiation data measured locally and the daily ambient temperature for the typical clear days. Initially the reactor is at ambient temperature, evaporating pressure; Pev=Pst(Tev=0 ∘C) and maintained at uniform concentration. It is heated successively until the threshold temperature corresponding to the condensing pressure; Pcond=Pst(Tam) (saturation pressure at ambient temperature; in the condenser) and until a maximum temperature at a constant pressure; Pcond. The cooling of the reactor is characterised by a fall of temperature to the minimal values at night corresponding to the end of a daily cycle. We use the mass balance equations as well as energy equation to describe heat and mass transfer inside the medium of three phases. A numerical solution of the obtained non linear equations system based on the implicit finite difference method allows to know all parameters characteristic of the thermodynamic cycle and consider principally the daily evolution of temperature, ammonia concentration for divers positions inside the reactor. The tube diameter of the reactor shows the dependence of the optimum value on meteorological parameters for 1 m2 of collector surface. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880050091&hterms=1095&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231095','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880050091&hterms=1095&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231095">Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S. 1988-01-01 Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140007517','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140007517">In situ Probe Science at Saturn</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Atkinson, D.H.; Lunine, J.I.; Simon-Miller, A. A.; Atreya, S. K.; Brinckerhoff, W.; Colaprete, A.; Coustenis, A.; Fletcher, L. N.; Guillot, T.; Lebreton, J.-P.; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20140007517'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140007517_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140007517_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140007517_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140007517_hide"> 2014-01-01 A fundamental goal of solar system exploration is to understand the origin of the solar system, the initial stages, conditions, and processes by which the solar system formed, how the formation process was initiated, and the nature of the interstellar seed material from which the solar system was born. Key to understanding solar system formation and subsequent dynamical and chemical evolution is the origin and evolution of the giant planets and their atmospheres. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850p0024R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850p0024R">Performance comparison of different thermodynamic cycles for an innovative central receiver solar power plant</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Reyes-Belmonte, Miguel A.; Sebastián, Andrés; González-Aguilar, José; Romero, Manuel 2017-06-01 The potential of using different thermodynamic cycles coupled to a solar tower central receiver that uses a novel heat transfer fluid is analyzed. The new fluid, named as DPS, is a dense suspension of solid particles aerated through a tubular receiver used to convert concentrated solar energy into thermal power. This novel fluid allows reaching high temperatures at the solar receiver what opens a wide range of possibilities for power cycle selection. This work has been focused into the assessment of power plant performance using conventional, but optimized cycles but also novel thermodynamic concepts. Cases studied are ranging from subcritical steam Rankine cycle; open regenerative Brayton air configurations at medium and high temperature; combined cycle; closed regenerative Brayton helium scheme and closed recompression supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle. Power cycle diagrams and working conditions for design point are compared amongst the studied cases for a common reference thermal power of 57 MWth reaching the central cavity receiver. It has been found that Brayton air cycle working at high temperature or using supercritical carbon dioxide are the most promising solutions in terms of efficiency conversion for the power block of future generation by means of concentrated solar power plants. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663726-temporal-variation-rotation-solar-mean-magnetic-field','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663726-temporal-variation-rotation-solar-mean-magnetic-field"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C., E-mail: xiejinglan@ynao.ac.cn Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle lengthmore » for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1917798G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1917798G">Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi 2017-04-01 The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22667286-data-assimilation-approach-forecast-solar-activity-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22667286-data-assimilation-approach-forecast-solar-activity-cycles">DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18487127','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18487127">Electrons, life and the evolution of Earth's oxygen cycle.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Falkowski, Paul G; Godfrey, Linda V 2008-08-27 The biogeochemical cycles of H, C, N, O and S are coupled via biologically catalysed electron transfer (redox) reactions. The metabolic processes responsible for maintaining these cycles evolved over the first ca 2.3 Ga of Earth's history in prokaryotes and, through a sequence of events, led to the production of oxygen via the photobiologically catalysed oxidation of water. However, geochemical evidence suggests that there was a delay of several hundred million years before oxygen accumulated in Earth's atmosphere related to changes in the burial efficiency of organic matter and fundamental alterations in the nitrogen cycle. In the latter case, the presence of free molecular oxygen allowed ammonium to be oxidized to nitrate and subsequently denitrified. The interaction between the oxygen and nitrogen cycles in particular led to a negative feedback, in which increased production of oxygen led to decreased fixed inorganic nitrogen in the oceans. This feedback, which is supported by isotopic analyses of fixed nitrogen in sedimentary rocks from the Late Archaean, continues to the present. However, once sufficient oxygen accumulated in Earth's atmosphere to allow nitrification to out-compete denitrification, a new stable electron 'market' emerged in which oxygenic photosynthesis and aerobic respiration ultimately spread via endosymbiotic events and massive lateral gene transfer to eukaryotic host cells, allowing the evolution of complex (i.e. animal) life forms. The resulting network of electron transfers led a gas composition of Earth's atmosphere that is far from thermodynamic equilibrium (i.e. it is an emergent property), yet is relatively stable on geological time scales. The early coevolution of the C, N and O cycles, and the resulting non-equilibrium gaseous by-products can be used as a guide to search for the presence of life on terrestrial planets outside of our Solar System. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850f0002G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850f0002G">Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier 2017-06-01 CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different temperatures, enabling low temperature heat recovery from the receiver and Gas Turbine exhaust gasses. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910009903','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910009903">Thermal cycle testing of Space Station Freedom solar array blanket coupons</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Scheiman, David A.; Schieman, David A. 1991-01-01 Lewis Research Center is presently conducting thermal cycle testing of solar array blanket coupons that represent the baseline design for Space Station Freedom. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environment Protection (PAEP) Program, NAS 3-25079, at Lockheed Missile and Space Company. The objective of the testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. Secondary objectives include the observation and identification of potential failure modes and effects that may occur within the solar array blanket coupons as a result of thermal cycling. The objectives, test articles, test chamber, performance evaluation, test requirements, and test results are presented for the successful completion of 60,000 thermal cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950004711','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950004711">Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P. 1994-01-01 Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..49V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..49V">Using SDO/AIA to Understand the Thermal Evolution of Solar Prominence Formation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Viall, Nicholeen; M.; Kucera, Therese T.; Karpen, Judith 2016-10-01 In this study, we investigate prominence formation using time series analysis of Solar Dynamics Observatory's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) data. We investigate the thermal properties of forming prominences by analyzing observed light curves using the same technique that we have already successfully applied to active regions to diagnose heating and cooling cycles. This technique tracks the thermal evolution using emission formed at different temperatures, made possible by AIA's different wavebands and high time resolution. We also compute the predicted light curves in the same SDO/AIA channels of a hydrodynamic model of thermal nonequilibrium formation of prominence material, an evaporation-condensation model. In these models of prominence formation, heating at the foot-points of sheared coronal flux-tubes results in evaporation of material of a few MK into the corona followed by catastrophic cooling of the hot material to form cool ( 10,000 K) prominence material. We demonstrate that the SDO/AIA light curves for flux tubes undergoing thermal nonequilibrium vary at different locations along the flux tube, especially in the region where the condensate forms, and we compare the predicted light curves with those observed. Supported by NASA's Living with a Star program. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970016970','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19970016970">Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest 1997-01-01 The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001ICRC....8.3359A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001ICRC....8.3359A">Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ahluwalia, H. S. 2001-08-01 At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008030','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170008030">Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J. 2016-01-01 Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRA..123..848L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRA..123..848L">The 11 Year Solar Cycle Response of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Observed by GPS Radio Occultation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Li, King-Fai; Lin, Li-Ching; Bui, Xuan-Hien; Liang, Mao-Chang 2018-01-01 We have retrieved the latitudinal and vertical structures of the 11 year solar cycle modulation on ionospheric electron density using 14 years of satellite-based radio occultation measurements utilizing the Global Positioning System. The densities at the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the subtropics near 300 km in 2003 and 2014 (high solar activity with solar 10.7 cm flux, <fi>F</fi>10.7 ≈ 140 solar flux unit (sfu)) were 3 times higher than that in 2009 (low solar activity <fi>F</fi>10.7 ≈ 70 sfu). The higher density is attributed to the elevated solar extreme ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity during high solar activity periods. The location of the EIA crests moved 50 km upward and 10° poleward, because of the enhanced E × B force. The EIA in the northern hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the southern hemisphere. This interhemispheric asymmetry is consistent with the effect of enhanced transequatorial neutral wind. The above observations were reproduced qualitatively by the two benchmark runs of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. In addition, we have studied the impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the 27 day solar cycle response of the ionospheric electron density. Beside the expected modulation on the amplitude of the 27 day solar variation due to the 11 year solar cycle, we find that the altitude of the maximal 27 day solar response is unexpectedly 50 km higher than that of the 11 year solar response. This is the first time that a vertical dependence of the solar responses on different time scales is reported. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH31C..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH31C..06M">Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T. 2016-12-01 The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014sf2a.conf..523S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014sf2a.conf..523S">Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A. 2014-12-01 The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015191','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015191">Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay 2011-01-01 After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26270098','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26270098">How Does a SILAR CdSe Film Grow? Tuning the Deposition Steps to Suppress Interfacial Charge Recombination in Solar Cells.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Becker, Matthew A; Radich, James G; Bunker, Bruce A; Kamat, Prashant V 2014-05-01 Successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction (SILAR) is a popular method of depositing the metal chalcogenide semiconductor layer on the mesoscopic metal oxide films for designing quantum-dot-sensitized solar cells (QDSSCs) or extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells. While this deposition method exhibits higher loading of the light-absorbing semiconductor layer than direct adsorption of presynthesized colloidal quantum dots, the chemical identity of these nanostructures and the evolution of interfacial structure are poorly understood. We have now analyzed step-by-step SILAR deposition of CdSe films on mesoscopic TiO2 nanoparticle films using X-ray absorption near-edge structure analysis and probed the interfacial structure of these films. The film characteristics interestingly show dependence on the order in which the Cd and Se are deposited, and the CdSe-TiO2 interface is affected only during the first few cycles of deposition. Development of a SeO2 passivation layer in the SILAR-prepared films to form a TiO2/SeO2/CdSe junction facilitates an increase in photocurrents and power conversion efficiencies of quantum dot solar cells when these films are integrated as photoanodes in a photoelectrochemical solar cell. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790009952&hterms=history+gold&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dhistory%2Bgold','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790009952&hterms=history+gold&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dhistory%2Bgold">Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E. 1978-01-01 The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...599A.131L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...599A.131L">Wings of the butterfly: Sunspot groups for 1826-2015</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leussu, R.; Usoskin, I. G.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.; Mursula, K. 2017-03-01 The spatio-temporal evolution of sunspot activity, the so-called Maunder butterfly diagram, has been continously available since 1874 using data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory, extended by SOON network data after 1976. Here we present a new extended butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence since 1826, using the recently digitized data from Schwabe (1826-1867) and Spörer (1866-1880). The wings of the diagram are separated using a recently developed method based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. We define characteristic latitudes, corresponding to the start, end, and the largest extent of the wings (the F, L, and H latitudes). The H latitudes (30°-45°) are highly significantly correlated with the strength of the wings (quantified by the total sum of the monthly numbers of sunspot groups). The F latitudes (20°-30°) depict a weak tendency, especially in the southern hemisphere, to follow the wing strength. The L latitudes (2°-10°) show no clear relation to the wing strength. Overall, stronger cycle wings tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater wing extent. A strong (5-6)-cycle periodic oscillation is found in the start and end times of the wings and in the overlap and gaps between successive wings of one hemisphere. While the average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, it is two to three months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about ten solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. The new long database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints to solar dynamo models that discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrence over the solar cycle and longer. Digital data for Fig. 1 are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A131 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890062593&hterms=Qbo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DQbo','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890062593&hterms=Qbo&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DQbo">Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J. 1989-01-01 The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030093570','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030093570">Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest 2003-01-01 The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070031867&hterms=Magnetic+Flux&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DMagnetic%2BFlux','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070031867&hterms=Magnetic+Flux&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DMagnetic%2BFlux">Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A. 2007-01-01 We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890058230&hterms=SME&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DSME','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890058230&hterms=SME&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DSME">A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L. 1989-01-01 Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....3510S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....3510S">QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I. 2003-04-01 On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830049937&hterms=universe+solar+system&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Duniverse%2Bsolar%2Bsystem','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830049937&hterms=universe+solar+system&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Duniverse%2Bsolar%2Bsystem">Impact of solar system exploration on theories of chemical evolution and the origin of life</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Devincenzi, D. L. 1983-01-01 The impact of solar system exploration on theories regarding chemical evolution and the origin of life is examined in detail. Major findings from missions to Mercury, Venus, the moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan are reviewed and implications for prebiotic chemistry are discussed. Among the major conclusions are: prebiotic chemistry is widespread throughout the solar system and universe; chemical evolution and the origin of life are intimately associated with the origin and evolution of the solar system; the rate, direction, and extent of prebiotic chemistry is highly dependent upon planetary characteristics; and continued exploration will increase understanding of how life originated on earth and allow better estimates of the likelihood of similar processes occurring elsewhere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.P41D1953A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.P41D1953A">The case for a deep-atmospheric in situ mission to address the highest priority Decadal Survey questions for Venus (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Atreya, S. K.; Garvin, J. B.; Glaze, L. S.; Campbell, B. A.; Fisher, M. E.; Flores, A.; Gilmore, M. S.; Johnson, N.; Kiefer, W. S.; Lorenz, R. D.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Ravine, M. A.; Webster, C. R.; Zolotov, M. Y. 2013-12-01 Current understanding of Venus lags behind that for Mars, with a major disparity of information concerning noble and trace gases and the small scale surface processes needed for comparative studies of terrestrial planet evolution. Despite global surface mapping by Magellan, discoveries by Venera landers, and ongoing atmospheric observations by the Venus Express (VEx) orbiter, significant questions about Venus remain unanswered. To place Venus into its proper context with respect to Mars and Earth, it is necessary to obtain new measurements that address top issues identified in the National Research Council (NRC) Solar System Decadal Survey: (1) evolution of the atmosphere, history of climate, and evidence of past hydrologic cycles; (2) history of volatiles and sedimentary cycles; and (3) planetary surface evolution. To answer these questions, new measurements are needed. First and foremost, in situ noble gas measurements are needed to constrain solar system formation and Venus evolution. In particular, the isotopic ratios of Xe and Kr can provide unique insights into planetary accretion. Isotopic measurements of nitrogen (15N/14N) will place important constraints on atmospheric loss processes. Current knowledge of this ratio has a substantial uncertainty of ×20%. VEx observations of hydrogen isotopes indicate the D/H ratio above the clouds is substantially greater than measured by Pioneer Venus, and varies with height. High precision measurements of the vertical distribution of the D/H isotopic ratio below the cloud layers will provide constraints on models of the climate history of water on Venus. The majority of atmospheric mass is located below the clouds. Current data suggest intense interaction among atmospheric gases down to the surface. The haze within the cloud region of unknown composition plays a central role in the radiative balance. Photochemically-derived species (H2SO4, OCS, CO, Sn) are subjected to thermochemical reactions below the clouds, especially within 30 km of the surface. Competing temperature-pressure dependent reactions and atmospheric circulation may cause vertical and latitudinal gradients of chemically-active trace gases (e.g., SO2, H2S, OCS, CO). Measurements of the chemical composition of the near-surface atmosphere can be used to evaluate the stability of primary and secondary minerals and can help to understand chemistry of atmosphere-surface interactions. However, concentrations of many trace species have never been measured below ~30 km, and multiple in situ measurements are required to evaluate chemical processes and cycles of volatiles, which can only be accomplished with deep entry probes. Current lack of understanding about Venus not only limits our understanding of evolutionary pathways Earth could experience, but also suggests that we are ill-equipped to understand the evolution of star systems with similar-sized planets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT........69E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT........69E">Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Eter, Ahmad Adel 2011-12-01 The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...853...72N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...853...72N">The Large-scale Coronal Structure of the 2017 August 21 Great American Eclipse: An Assessment of Solar Surface Flux Transport Model Enabled Predictions and Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhowmik, Prantika; Yeates, Anthony R.; Panda, Suman; Tarafder, Rajashik; Dash, Soumyaranjan 2018-01-01 On 2017 August 21, a total solar eclipse swept across the contiguous United States, providing excellent opportunities for diagnostics of the Sun’s corona. The Sun’s coronal structure is notoriously difficult to observe except during solar eclipses; thus, theoretical models must be relied upon for inferring the underlying magnetic structure of the Sun’s outer atmosphere. These models are necessary for understanding the role of magnetic fields in the heating of the corona to a million degrees and the generation of severe space weather. Here we present a methodology for predicting the structure of the coronal field based on model forward runs of a solar surface flux transport model, whose predicted surface field is utilized to extrapolate future coronal magnetic field structures. This prescription was applied to the 2017 August 21 solar eclipse. A post-eclipse analysis shows good agreement between model simulated and observed coronal structures and their locations on the limb. We demonstrate that slow changes in the Sun’s surface magnetic field distribution driven by long-term flux emergence and its evolution governs large-scale coronal structures with a (plausibly cycle-phase dependent) dynamical memory timescale on the order of a few solar rotations, opening up the possibility for large-scale, global corona predictions at least a month in advance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002cosp...34E2656L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002cosp...34E2656L">On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H. In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840005033','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840005033">The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E. 1983-01-01 There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSWSC...6A..33L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSWSC...6A..33L">Solar rotational modulations of spectral irradiance and correlations with the variability of total solar irradiance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L. 2016-09-01 Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170002306&hterms=correlation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dcorrelation','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170002306&hterms=correlation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dcorrelation">Solar Rotational Modulations of Spectral Irradiance and Correlations with the Variability of Total Solar Irradiance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L. 2016-01-01 Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMSA21A..03V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMSA21A..03V">Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Villanueva, L. 2013-05-01 Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1944b0052S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1944b0052S">Experimental study of refrigeration performance based on linear Fresnel solar thermal photovoltaic system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Song, Jinghui; Yuan, Hui; Xia, Yunfeng; Kan, Weimin; Deng, Xiaowen; Liu, Shi; Liang, Wanlong; Deng, Jianhua 2018-03-01 This paper introduces the working principle and system constitution of the linear Fresnel solar lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle, and elaborates several typical structures of absorption refrigeration cycle, including single-effect, two-stage cycle and double-effect lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle A 1.n effect absorption chiller system based on the best parameters was introduced and applied to a linear Fresnel solar absorption chiller system. Through the field refrigerator performance test, the results show: Based on this heat cycle design and processing 1.n lithium bromide absorption refrigeration power up to 35.2KW, It can meet the theoretical expectations and has good flexibility and reliability, provides guidance for the use of solar thermal energy. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/869888','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/869888">Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a> Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A. 1995-01-01 A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013MS%26E...52d2015B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013MS%26E...52d2015B">Thermodynamic and design considerations of organic Rankine cycles in combined application with a solar thermal gas turbine</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Braun, R.; Kusterer, K.; Sugimoto, T.; Tanimura, K.; Bohn, D. 2013-12-01 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies are considered to provide a significant contribution for the electric power production in the future. Different kinds of technologies are presently in operation or under development, e.g. parabolic troughs, central receivers, solar dish systems and Fresnel reflectors. This paper takes the focus on central receiver technologies, where the solar radiation is concentrated by a field of heliostats in a receiver on the top of a tall tower. To get this CSP technology ready for the future, the system costs have to reduce significantly. The main cost driver in such kind of CSP technologies are the huge amount of heliostats. To reduce the amount of heliostats, and so the investment costs, the efficiency of the energy conversion cycle becomes an important issue. An increase in the cycle efficiency results in a decrease of the solar heliostat field and thus, in a significant cost reduction. The paper presents the results of a thermodynamic model of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for combined cycle application together with a solar thermal gas turbine. The gas turbine cycle is modeled with an additional intercooler and recuperator and is based on a typical industrial gas turbine in the 2 MW class. The gas turbine has a two stage radial compressor and a three stage axial turbine. The compressed air is preheated within a solar receiver to 950°C before entering the combustor. A hybrid operation of the gas turbine is considered. In order to achieve a further increase of the overall efficiency, the combined operation of the gas turbine and an Organic Rankine Cycle is considered. Therefore an ORC has been set up, which is thermally connected to the gas turbine cycle at two positions. The ORC can be coupled to the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle at the intercooler and after the recuperator. Thus, waste heat from different cycle positions can be transferred to the ORC for additional production of electricity. Within this investigation different working fluids and ORC conditions have been analyzed in order to evaluate the best configuration. The investigations have been performed by application of improved thermodynamic and process analysis tools, which consider the real gas behavior of the analyzed fluids. The results show that by combined operation of the solar thermal gas turbine and the ORC, the combined cycle efficiency is approximately 4%-points higher than in the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011CEAB...35..171S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011CEAB...35..171S">Physical Characteristics of AR 11024 Plasma Based on SPHINX and XRT Data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sylwester, B.; Sylwester, J.; Siarkowski, M.; Engell, A. J.; Kuzin, S. V. We have studied the evolution of basic physical properties of plasma within the coronal part of the isolated, new cycle region (AR 11024) during its crossing over the solar disc in July 2009. Our analysis is based on the high temporal and spectral resolution measurements performed by the Polish X-ray spectrometer SphinX onboard the CORONAS-Photon satellite. Hinode XRT images provide information on spatial extension of the emission within this active region. It is found that the average temperature of the plasma within the analysed region is the highest (˜6 MK) when the region is young and gradually declines to ˜2 MK when the emission measure is the highest. An average density during this first part of the evolution is estimated to be ˜2 x 10^9 cm^{-3}. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22521881-electron-density-distributions-solar-corona-during-solar-minima-assessment-more-realistic-solar-wind-modeling','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22521881-electron-density-distributions-solar-corona-during-solar-minima-assessment-more-realistic-solar-wind-modeling">3D ELECTRON DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA DURING SOLAR MINIMA: ASSESSMENT FOR MORE REALISTIC SOLAR WIND MODELING</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Patoul, Judith de; Foullon, Claire; Riley, Pete, E-mail: j.depatoul@exeter.ac.uk, E-mail: c.foullon@exeter.ac.uk, E-mail: rileype@saic.com Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996–1997 and 2008–2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. The goals are to derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method and to compare the results between the two solar minima and with two magnetohydrodynamic models. First, we confirm that the values of the density distribution in thermodynamic models aremore » more realistic than in polytropic ones. The tomography provides more accurate distributions in the polar regions, and we find that the density in tomographic and thermodynamic solutions varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We deduce that tomography offers reliable density distributions in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how they are magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100040492','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100040492">Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hathaway, David H. 2010-01-01 This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..167N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..167N">The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul 2017-11-01 The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19810005652','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19810005652">Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Nuss, H. E. 1980-01-01 For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25353240','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25353240">Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf 2014-12-01 The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AAS...21011104L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AAS...21011104L">A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Luhmann, Janet 2007-05-01 A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RAA....18....7Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RAA....18....7Z">Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen 2018-01-01 The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22525691-photometric-trends-visible-solar-continuum-sensitivity-center-limb-profile','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22525691-photometric-trends-visible-solar-continuum-sensitivity-center-limb-profile">PHOTOMETRIC TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SOLAR CONTINUUM AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO THE CENTER-TO-LIMB PROFILE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Peck, C. L.; Rast, M. P. 2015-08-01 Solar irradiance variations over solar rotational timescales are largely determined by the passage of magnetic structures across the visible solar disk. Variations on solar cycle timescales are thought to be similarly due to changes in surface magnetism with activity. Understanding the contribution of magnetic structures to total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance requires assessing their contributions as a function of disk position. Since only relative photometry is possible from the ground, the contrasts of image pixels are measured with respect to a center-to-limb intensity profile. Using nine years of full-disk red and blue continuum images from the Precision Solarmore » Photometric Telescope at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, we examine the sensitivity of continuum contrast measurements to the center-to-limb profile definition. Profiles which differ only by the amount of magnetic activity allowed in the pixels used to determine them yield oppositely signed solar cycle length continuum contrast trends, either agreeing with previous results and showing negative correlation with solar cycle or disagreeing and showing positive correlation with solar cycle. Changes in the center-to-limb profile shape over the solar cycle are responsible for the contradictory contrast results, and we demonstrate that the lowest contrast structures, internetwork and network, are most sensitive to these. Thus the strengths of the full-disk, internetwork, and network photometric trends depend critically on the magnetic flux density used in the quiet-Sun definition. We conclude that the contributions of low contrast magnetic structures to variations in the solar continuum output, particularly to long-term variations, are difficult, if not impossible, to determine without the use of radiometric imaging.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2423P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2423P">Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pande, Bimal Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24 \\underline{} Abstract\\underline{} It is very important and interesting to understand the solar eruptions because it produces the geoeffectiveness in our Earth environment. In the rise phase of the solar cycle, geoeffective events are less frequent, thus this provide us better opportunity to study these events including the detection of their source regions. Keeping this in mind, we have analysed the data of rise phase of current solar cycle 24 ( 2009-2012). During above time period, we have selected 59 geoeffective events having Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index < -50 nT. Based on the Dst index, we divided the events into two categories i.e. moderate (< -50 nT > -100 nT ) and intense ( <-100 nT). To locate the solar source regions of geoeffective and SEPs associated events, we have used available images, movies and Solar Geophysical data (SGD) list: for example movies from SOHO/EIT, images and movies from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). In this study, we will discuss and compare the different properties of associated CMEs, flares and their relation with geoeffectiveness. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850j0013L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1850j0013L">Integration of photovoltaic and concentrated solar thermal technologies for H2 production by the hybrid sulfur cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Liberatore, Raffaele; Ferrara, Mariarosaria; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca 2017-06-01 It is widely agreed that hydrogen used as energy carrier and/or storage media may significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions, especially if produced by renewable energy sources. The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) cycle is considered as one of the most promising processes to produce hydrogen through the water-splitting process. The FP7 project SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) investigates innovative material and process solutions for the use of solar heat and power in the HyS process. A significant part of the SOL2HY2 project is devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar and chemical (hydrogen production) plants. In this context, this work investigates the possibility to integrate different solar technologies, namely photovoltaic, solar central receiver and solar troughs, to optimize their use in the HyS cycle for a green hydrogen production, both in the open and closed process configurations. The analysis carried out accounts for different combinations of geographical location and plant sizing criteria. The use of a sulfur burner, which can serve both as thermal backup and SO2 source for the open cycle, is also considered. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=S73-33788&hterms=physics+experiment&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dphysics%2Bexperiment','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=S73-33788&hterms=physics+experiment&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dphysics%2Bexperiment">Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> 1973-01-01 Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment. This black and white view of a solar flare was taken from the skylab remote solar experiment module mounted on top of the vehicle and worked automatically without any interaction from the crew. Solar flares or sunspots are eruptions on the sun's surface and appear to occur in cycles. When these cycles occur, there is worldwide electromagnetic interference affecting radio and television transmission. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813513S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813513S">Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Scafetta, Nicola 2016-04-01 The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced mostly by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. Scafetta, N.: Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.- Terr. Phys. 80, 296-311 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys. Space Sci. 354, 275-299 (2014). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910003169','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910003169">A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Perry, Charles A. 1990-01-01 Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/55813','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/55813">Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a> Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A. 1995-05-23 A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050202033','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050202033">Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lodhi, M. A. K. 2005-01-01 No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17743183','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17743183">The formation of stellar systems from interstellar molecular clouds.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Gehrz, R D; Black, D C; Solomon, P M 1984-05-25 Star formation, a crucial link in the chain of events that led from the early expansion of the universe to the formation of the solar system, continues to play a major role in the evolution of many galaxies. Observational and theoretical studies of regions of ongoing star formation provide insight into the physical conditions and events that must have attended the formation of the solar system. Such investigations also elucidate the role played by star formation in the evolutionary cycle which appears to dominate the chemical processing of interstellar material by successive generations of stars in spiral galaxies like our own. New astronomical facilities planned for development during the 1980's could lead to significant advances in our understanding of the star formation process. Efforts to identify and examine both the elusive protostellar collapse phase of star formation and planetary systems around nearby stars will be especially significant. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19810038972&hterms=mercury+planet&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dmercury%2Bplanet','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19810038972&hterms=mercury+planet&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dmercury%2Bplanet">Earthlike planets: Surfaces of Mercury, Venus, earth, moon, Mars</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Murray, B.; Malin, M. C.; Greeley, R. 1981-01-01 The surfaces of the earth and the other terrestrial planets of the inner solar system are reviewed in light of the results of recent planetary explorations. Past and current views of the origin of the earth, moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars are discussed, and the surface features characteristic of the moon, Mercury, Mars and Venus are outlined. Mechanisms for the modification of planetary surfaces by external factors and from within the planet are examined, including surface cycles, meteoritic impact, gravity, wind, plate tectonics, volcanism and crustal deformation. The origin and evolution of the moon are discussed on the basis of the Apollo results, and current knowledge of Mercury and Mars is examined in detail. Finally, the middle periods in the history of the terrestrial planets are compared, and future prospects for the exploration of the inner planets as well as other rocky bodies in the solar system are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170001553','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170001553">Coronal Polarization of Pseudostreamers and the Solar Polar Field Reversal</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Rachmeler, L. A.; Guennou, C.; Seaton, D. B.; Gibson, S. E.; Auchere, F. 2016-01-01 The reversal of the solar polar magnetic field is notoriously hard to pin down due to the extreme viewing angle of the pole. In Cycle 24, the southern polar field reversal can be pinpointed with high accuracy due to a large-scale pseudostreamer that formed over the pole and persisted for approximately a year. We tracked the size and shape of this structure with multiple observations and analysis techniques including PROBA2/SWAP EUV images, AIA EUV images, CoMP polarization data, and 3D tomographic reconstructions. We find that the heliospheric field reversed polarity in February 2014, whereas in the photosphere, the last vestiges of the previous polar field polarity remained until March 2015. We present here the evolution of the structure and describe its identification in the Fe XII 1074nm coronal emission line, sensitive to the Hanle effect in the corona. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JApA...39...20S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JApA...39...20S">Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22-23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Singh, Prithvi Raj; Saxena, A. K.; Tiwari, C. M. 2018-04-01 We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986-2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger ({˜ }130 to {˜ }190 days), quasi-period ({˜ }200 to {˜ }374 days), and quasi-biennial periodicities ({˜ }1.20 to {˜ }3.27 years) during the combined solar cycles 22-23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of {˜ }1.43 years and for solar flare index of {˜ }1.41 year, and galactic cosmic ray, {˜ }1.35 year, during combined solar cycles 22-23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22-23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (Rc = 2.43GV) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....2865D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....2865D">Length of the solar cycle influence on the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E. 2003-04-01 The influence of the length of the solar cycle on the relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship is different according to the length of the solar cycle. When the sunspot cycle is 10 or 11 years long, wintertime NAO and NHT are positively correlated, being the signal more intense during 11 years period, but when the sunspot cycle is longer (12 years) correlations between wintertime NAO and NHT are not significant. In fact there are significant negative correlations between wintertime NAO and spring NHT, with predictive potential. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CEAB...39..109C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CEAB...39..109C">Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Curdt, W.; Fleck, B. Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030025688','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030025688">Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B. 2003-01-01 We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSWSC...7A..14P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSWSC...7A..14P">Catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events extending through solar cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Paassilta, Miikka; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Siipola, Robert; Riihonen, Esa; Dierckxsens, Mark; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Heber, Bernd; Klein, Karl-Ludwig 2017-06-01 We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (SOHO/ERNE). In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (Electron Proton Helium Instrument) (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis was performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s ≾ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far-eastern solar hemisphere; for instance, such an event with a well-established associated GOES flare has so far occurred three times during cycle 24 but possibly not at all during cycle 23. The generally lower level of solar activity during cycle 24, as opposed to cycle 23, has probably caused a significant decrease in total ambient pressure in the interplanetary space, leading to a larger proportion of SEP-associated halo-type CMEs. Taken together, these observations point to a qualitative difference between the two solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007899','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007899">Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz 2014-01-01 The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH11A2381D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH11A2381D">3D electron density distributions in the solar corona during solar minima: assessment for more realistic solar wind modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> de Patoul, J.; Foullon, C.; Riley, P. 2015-12-01 Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling, and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996-1997 and 2008-2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. We derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method. First we compare the density distributions obtained from tomography with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions. The tomography provides more accurate distributions of electron densities in the polar regions, and we find that the observed density varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We conclude that tomography offers reliable density distribution in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how it is magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in-situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus. This research combined with the MHD coronal modeling efforts has the potential to increase the reliability for future space weather forecasting. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1110380G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1110380G">A high resolution history of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and of the solar activity during the Late Glacial - Early Holocene in the subtropical Andean region.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Giralt, S.; Schimmel, M.; Hernández, A.; Bao, R.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Sáez, A.; Pueyo, J. J. 2009-04-01 High-resolution laminated lacustrine sediments are excellent archives of the past hydrological changes and they provide valuable insights about the climatic processes that trigger these changes. The paleoclimatic records located in the Southern Hemisphere are fundamental for understanding the evolution of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since this climatic phenomena is the main cause of droughts and floods in many areas of South America and other regions of the world, like Spain and Egypt. Available regional paleoclimate reconstructions show that modern climatic patterns in South America were established during the Late Holocene. The laminated sediments of Lago Chungará (18° 15' S - 69° 10' W, 4520 m a.s.l., Chilean altiplano) have allowed us to characterize the evolution of this climatic phenomena for the transition Late Glacial - Early Holocene (12,300 - 9,500 calendar years BP) as well as its relationship with other climate forcings, namely the solar activity. The studied sediments correspond to the lowermost 2.4 m of 8 m long Kullemberg cores recovered from this lake. These sediments are mainly made up of greenish and whitish laminae and thin layers constituted by diatomaceous oozes with carbonates and organic matter, arranged in rhythms and cycles. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Rb, Sr, Zn, Sb and Ba) analyses, total organic carbon (TOC), total carbon (TC), x-ray diffraction (XRD), biogenic silica, stable isotopes (delta18O and delta13C) on carbonates and on diatoms (delta18O) and magnetic susceptibility were determined in order to characterize the sediments of Lago Chungará. Previous statistical studies (cluster and Principal Component Analyses (PCA)) were used to disentangle the paleoclimatic signal from the other ones (volcanic and tectonic). The chronological model framework was built using 6 radiocarbon dates, allowing us to establish that laminated couplets were deposited on a pluriannual basis. These couplets are composed of a lower light lamina, progressively grading upwards to a dark lamina. Light laminae are composed by diatom valves of a single species (Cyclostephanos cf. andinus), accumulated during short-term extraordinary diatom blooms when water column mixing took place under abrupt and short-term climatic events. Dark laminae contain a complex diatom assemblage and are rich in organic matter representing the baseline limnological conditions during several years of deposition. Spectral analyses (Fast Fourier Transformation - FFT - and Time Frequency - TF - analyses) were performed on the isolated paleohydrological curve and on the gray color curve calculated for these laminated sediments. The FFT analyses of the paleohydrological signal obtained from the PCA highlights the record of 35-51 years cycles, that might correspond to the solar Bruckner cycle as well as to the inter-decadal changes in the variance of the ENSO phenomena. The results of the FFT analyses carried out on the gray curve reinforce the hypothesis of the solar control on the variations in the lake productivity: the 11-years Schwabe, 22-23-years Hale, 35-years Bruckner and the approx. 90-years Gleissberg cycles, as well as a strong to very strong ENSO phenomena (8.2 and 7.5-years cycles) are recorded. The TF analyses developed on the variations of the gray-colour curve reveal that all solar frequencies have modified intensities during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. During the low activity periods of the 11-years Schwabe cycles, strong to very strong ENSO phenomena took place. These results show that ENSO-like variability was present during the late Glacial and early Holocene in the Altiplano. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22127107-analysis-sunspot-area-over-two-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22127107-analysis-sunspot-area-over-two-solar-cycles">ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G. 2013-06-20 We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH53C..03R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH53C..03R">Probing the Boundaries of the Heliosphere by Analyzing the Temporal Variation of the Polar ENA Flux</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Reisenfeld, D. B.; Janzen, P. H.; Bzowski, M.; Dialynas, K.; Funsten, H. O.; Fuselier, S. A.; Karna, N.; Kubiak, M. A.; McComas, D. J.; Schwadron, N.; Sokol, J. M. 2015-12-01 With nearly seven years of IBEX observations, we can now trace the time evolution of heliospheric ENAs through over half a solar cycle. At the north and south ecliptic poles, the spacecraft attitude allows for continuous coverage of the ENA flux; thus, signal from these vantages have much higher statistical accuracy and time resolution than anywhere else in the sky. By assuming pressure balance across the termination shock, and comparing the solar wind dynamic pressure measured at 1 AU with the heliosheath plasma pressure derived from the observed ENA fluxes, we show that the heliosheath pressure measured at the poles correlates well with the solar cycle. The analysis requires time-shifting the ENA measurements to account for the travel time out and back from the heliosheath. The time shifts at the north pole range from 5.1 years at 700 eV, the low end of the IBEX-Hi energy range, to 3.2 years at 4.3 keV, the top IBEX-Hi energy. These time shifts assume a common mean distance to the ENA source region for all energies. For the south pole, the best-fit time shifts range from 4.1 to 2.6 years across the IBEX-Hi energy range. Hence, the ENA source at the south is somewhat closer than at the north, consistent with an asymmetric heliosphere model. We will present the details of this analysis, as well as estimates of the scale size of the heliosheath in the polar directions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..22K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016usc..confE..22K">On the Formation Mechanism of A Long-lived Polar Crown Cavity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Karna, Nishu; Pesnell, William D.; Zhang, Jie 2016-10-01 We report the study of the longest-lived polar crown cavity of Solar Cycle 24th observed in the year 2013 and propose a physical mechanism to explain the sustained existence. We used high temporal and spatial resolution observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to explore the structure and evolution. We examined the circumpolar cavity in great detail from March 21, 2013, till October 31, 2013, while it existed for more than one year. Our study suggests two necessary conditions to form a long stable circumpolar cavity or any polar crown cavity. First, the underlying polarity inversion line (PIL) of the circumpolar cavity is formed between the trailing part of dozens of decayed active regions distributed in different longitudes and the unipolar magnetic field in the polar coronal hole. Second, the long life of the cavity is sustained by the continuing flux cancellation along the polarity inversion line. The flux is persistently transported toward the polar region through surface meridional flow and diffusion, which also leads to the shrinking of the polar coronal hole. Comparing with the existing theory of the formation of polarity inversion lines, we introduce a new category named as "Diffused trailing flux and polar coronal hole interaction region" to explain the polar crown cavity. The existence of such region also helps explain the process of polar reversal, which provides insight into the solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AAS...22041101L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AAS...22041101L">Are Polar Field Magnetic Flux Concentrations Responsible for Missing Interplanetary Flux?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Linker, Jon A.; Downs, C.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N. 2012-05-01 Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are now routinely used to produce models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere for specific time periods. These models typically use magnetic maps of the photospheric magnetic field built up over a solar rotation, available from a number of ground-based and space-based solar observatories. The line-of-sight field at the Sun's poles is poorly observed, and the polar fields in these maps are filled with a variety of interpolation/extrapolation techniques. These models have been found to frequently underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux (Riley et al., 2012, in press, Stevens et al., 2012, in press) near the minimum part of the cycle unless mitigating correction factors are applied. Hinode SOT observations indicate that strong concentrations of magnetic flux may be present at the poles (Tsuneta et al. 2008). The ADAPT flux evolution model (Arge et al. 2010) also predicts the appearance of such concentrations. In this paper, we explore the possibility that these flux concentrations may account for a significant amount of magnetic flux and alleviate discrepancies in interplanetary magnetic flux predictions. Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22654274-stellar-evidence-solar-dynamo-may-transition','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22654274-stellar-evidence-solar-dynamo-may-transition">STELLAR EVIDENCE THAT THE SOLAR DYNAMO MAY BE IN TRANSITION</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Metcalfe, Travis S.; Egeland, Ricky; Van Saders, Jennifer 2016-07-20 Precise photometry from the Kepler space telescope allows not only the measurement of rotation in solar-type field stars, but also the determination of reliable masses and ages from asteroseismology. These critical data have recently provided the first opportunity to calibrate rotation–age relations for stars older than the Sun. The evolutionary picture that emerges is surprising: beyond middle-age the efficiency of magnetic braking is dramatically reduced, implying a fundamental change in angular momentum loss beyond a critical Rossby number (Ro ∼ 2). We compile published chromospheric activity measurements for the sample of Kepler asteroseismic targets that were used to establish themore » new rotation–age relations. We use these data along with a sample of well-characterized solar analogs from the Mount Wilson HK survey to develop a qualitative scenario connecting the evolution of chromospheric activity to a fundamental shift in the character of differential rotation. We conclude that the Sun may be in a transitional evolutionary phase, and that its magnetic cycle might represent a special case of stellar dynamo theory.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126959-hemispheric-asymmetries-solar-photospheric-magnetism-radiative-particulate-heliospheric-impacts','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126959-hemispheric-asymmetries-solar-photospheric-magnetism-radiative-particulate-heliospheric-impacts">HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES OF SOLAR PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETISM: RADIATIVE, PARTICULATE, AND HELIOSPHERIC IMPACTS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> McIntosh, Scott W.; Burkepile, Joan; Miesch, Mark 2013-03-10 Among many other measurable quantities, the summer of 2009 saw a considerable low in the radiative output of the Sun that was temporally coincident with the largest cosmic-ray flux ever measured at 1 AU. Combining measurements and observations made by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft we begin to explore the complexities of the descending phase of solar cycle 23, through the 2009 minimum into the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. A hemispheric asymmetry in magnetic activity is clearly observed and its evolution monitored and the resulting (prolonged) magnetic imbalance must have hadmore » a considerable impact on the structure and energetics of the heliosphere. While we cannot uniquely tie the variance and scale of the surface magnetism to the dwindling radiative and particulate output of the star, or the increased cosmic-ray flux through the 2009 minimum, the timing of the decline and rapid recovery in early 2010 would appear to inextricably link them. These observations support a picture where the Sun's hemispheres are significantly out of phase with each other. Studying historical sunspot records with this picture in mind shows that the northern hemisphere has been leading since the middle of the last century and that the hemispheric ''dominance'' has changed twice in the past 130 years. The observations presented give clear cause for concern, especially with respect to our present understanding of the processes that produce the surface magnetism in the (hidden) solar interior-hemispheric asymmetry is the normal state-the strong symmetry shown in 1996 was abnormal. Further, these observations show that the mechanism(s) which create and transport the magnetic flux are slowly changing with time and, it appears, with only loose coupling across the equator such that those asymmetries can persist for a considerable time. As the current asymmetry persists and the basal energetics of the system continue to dwindle we anticipate new radiative and particulate lows coupled with increased cosmic-ray fluxes heading into the next solar minimum.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSpR..59..366M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSpR..59..366M">A study of the possible relation of the cardiac arrhythmias occurrence to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th. 2017-01-01 The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22020517-dynamics-solar-magnetic-field-polarity-reversals-butterfly-diagram-quasi-biennial-oscillations','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22020517-dynamics-solar-magnetic-field-polarity-reversals-butterfly-diagram-quasi-biennial-oscillations">THE DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD: POLARITY REVERSALS, BUTTERFLY DIAGRAM, AND QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATIONS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Vecchio, A.; Meduri, D.; Carbone, V. 2012-04-10 The spatio-temporal dynamics of the solar magnetic field has been investigated by using NSO/Kitt Peak magnetic synoptic maps covering the period 1976 August-2003 September. The field radial component, for each heliographic latitude, has been decomposed in intrinsic mode functions through the Empirical Mode Decomposition in order to investigate the time evolution of the various characteristic oscillating modes at different latitudes. The same technique has also been applied on synoptic maps of the meridional and east-west components, which were derived from the observed line-of-sight projection of the field by using the differential rotation. Results obtained for the {approx}22 yr cycle, relatedmore » to the polarity inversions of the large-scale dipolar field, show an antisymmetric behavior with respect to the equator in all the field components and a marked poleward flux migration in the radial and meridional components (from about -35 Degree-Sign and +35 Degree-Sign in the southern and northern hemispheres, respectively). The quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) are also identified as a fundamental timescale of variability of the magnetic field and associated with poleward magnetic flux migration from low latitudes around the maximum and descending phase of the solar cycle. Moreover, signs of an equatorward drift, at a {approx}2 yr rate, seem to appear in the radial and toroidal components. Hence, the QBO patterns suggest a link to a dynamo action. Finally, the high-frequency component of the magnetic field, at timescales less than 1 yr, provides the most energetic contribution and it is associated with the outbreaks of the bipolar regions on the solar surface.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...16S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SoPh..293...16S">A Comparative Study of the Eruptive and Non-eruptive Flares Produced by the Largest Active Region of Solar Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sarkar, Ranadeep; Srivastava, Nandita 2018-02-01 We investigate the morphological and magnetic characteristics of solar active region (AR) NOAA 12192. AR 12192 was the largest region of Solar Cycle 24; it underwent noticeable growth and produced 6 X-class flares, 22 M-class flares, and 53 C-class flares in the course of its disc passage. However, the most peculiar fact of this AR is that it was associated with only one CME in spite of producing several X-class flares. In this work, we carry out a comparative study between the eruptive and non-eruptive flares produced by AR 12192. We find that the magnitude of abrupt and permanent changes in the horizontal magnetic field and Lorentz force are significantly smaller in the case of the confined flares compared to the eruptive one. We present the areal evolution of AR 12192 during its disc passage. We find the flare-related morphological changes to be weaker during the confined flares, whereas the eruptive flare exhibits a rapid and permanent disappearance of penumbral area away from the magnetic neutral line after the flare. Furthermore, from the extrapolated non-linear force-free magnetic field, we examine the overlying coronal magnetic environment over the eruptive and non-eruptive zones of the AR. We find that the critical decay index for the onset of torus instability was achieved at a lower height over the eruptive flaring region, than for the non-eruptive core area. These results suggest that the decay rate of the gradient of overlying magnetic-field strength may play a decisive role to determine the CME productivity of the AR. In addition, the magnitude of changes in the flare-related magnetic characteristics are found to be well correlated with the nature of solar eruptions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...859L...9J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...859L...9J">The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, S. C.; Hill, F. 2018-05-01 In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMSM23A..04P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMSM23A..04P">Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pacini, A. A.; Brum, C. G. 2013-05-01 We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred in Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the XXIII solar activity cycle. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65oN) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSA31A1958P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMSA31A1958P">Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pacini, A. A.; Garnett Marques Brum, C. 2013-12-01 We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the last solar activity cycle XXIII. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65N) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53E2297L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53E2297L">Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences over the Winter Arctic Simulated by the WACCM4 Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L. 2017-12-01 Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018IJSE...37....1V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018IJSE...37....1V">Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes 2018-01-01 In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22518859-sun-like-magnetic-cycles-rapidly-rotating-young-solar-analog-hd','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22518859-sun-like-magnetic-cycles-rapidly-rotating-young-solar-analog-hd">SUN-LIKE MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE RAPIDLY ROTATING YOUNG SOLAR ANALOG HD 30495</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Egeland, Ricky; Metcalfe, Travis S.; Hall, Jeffrey C. A growing body of evidence suggests that multiple dynamo mechanisms can drive magnetic variability on different timescales, not only in the Sun but also in other stars. Many solar activity proxies exhibit a quasi-biennial (∼2 year) variation, which is superimposed upon the dominant 11 year cycle. A well-characterized stellar sample suggests at least two different relationships between rotation period and cycle period, with some stars exhibiting long and short cycles simultaneously. Within this sample, the solar cycle periods are typical of a more rapidly rotating star, implying that the Sun might be in a transitional state or that it hasmore » an unusual evolutionary history. In this work, we present new and archival observations of dual magnetic cycles in the young solar analog HD 30495, a ∼1 Gyr old G1.5 V star with a rotation period near 11 days. This star falls squarely on the relationships established by the broader stellar sample, with short-period variations at ∼1.7 years and a long cycle of ∼12 years. We measure three individual long-period cycles and find durations ranging from 9.6 to 15.5 years. We find the short-term variability to be intermittent, but present throughout the majority of the time series, though its occurrence and amplitude are uncorrelated with the longer cycle. These essentially solar-like variations occur in a Sun-like star with more rapid rotation, though surface differential rotation measurements leave open the possibility of a solar equivalence.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH54A..08L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH54A..08L">Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E. 2017-12-01 Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850026545','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850026545">11- and 22-year variations of the cosmic ray density and of the solar wind speed</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chirkov, N. P. 1985-01-01 Cosmic ray density variations for 17-21 solar activity cycles and the solar wind speed for 20-21 events are investigated. The 22-year solar wind speed recurrence was found in even and odd cycles. The 22-year variations of cosmic ray density were found to be opposite that of solar wind speed and solar activity. The account of solar wind speed in 11-year variations significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic rays when E = 10-20 GeV. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..174G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292..174G">Structure of the Photospheric Magnetic Field During Sector Crossings of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi 2017-11-01 The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we separately study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during Solar Cycles 21 - 24 for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976 - 2016. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle, solar cycle phase, and hemisphere. The Hale boundaries in more than half of the ascending, maximum, and declining phases are clear and statistically significant. The clearest Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd Cycles 21 and 23, but less systematical during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even Cycles 22 and 24. No similar difference between odd and even cycles is found for the (-,+) crossings. This shows that the northern hemisphere has a more organized Hale pattern overall. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820005166','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820005166">Study of radiatively sustained cesium plasmas for solar energy conversion</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Palmer, A. J.; Dunning, G. J. 1980-01-01 The results of a study aimed at developing a high temperature solar electric converter are reported. The converter concept is based on the use of an alkali plasma to serve as both an efficient high temperature collector of solar radiation as well as the working fluid for a high temperature working cycle. The working cycle is a simple magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Rankine cycle employing a solid electrode Faraday MHD channel. Research milestones include the construction of a theoretical model for coupling sunlight in a cesium plasma and the experimental demonstration of cesium plasma heating with a solar simulator in excellent agreement with the theory. Analysis of a solar MHD working cycle in which excimer laser power rather than electric power is extracted is also presented. The analysis predicts a positive gain coefficient on the cesium-xenon excimer laser transition. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850016770&hterms=cloud+computing&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dcloud%2Bcomputing','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850016770&hterms=cloud+computing&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dcloud%2Bcomputing">Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L. 1984-01-01 Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..05L">Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W. 2017-12-01 Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070022882&hterms=ACE&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3DACE','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20070022882&hterms=ACE&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3DACE">Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20070022882'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20070022882_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20070022882_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20070022882_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20070022882_hide"> 2007-01-01 Observations of cosmic-ray helium energy spectra provide important constraints on cosmic ray origin and propagation. However, helium intensities measured at Earth are affected by solar modulation, especially below several GeV/nucleon. Observations of helium intensities over a solar cycle are important for understanding how solar modulation affects galactic cosmic ray intensities and for separating the contributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays. The Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on ACE has been measuring cosmic ray isotopes, including helium, since 1997 with high statistical precision. We present helium elemental intensities between approx. 10 to approx. 100 MeV/nucleon from the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) and CRIS observations over a solar cycle and compare these results with the observations from other satellite and balloon-borne instruments, and with GCR transport and solar modulation models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2646N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2646N">Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald 2017-04-01 The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010084959','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010084959">Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth 2001-01-01 Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdSpR..55..401K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdSpR..55..401K">Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon 2015-01-01 In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050181414','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050181414">Closed Cycle Engine Program Used in Solar Dynamic Power Testing Effort</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Ensworth, Clint B., III; McKissock, David B. 1998-01-01 NASA Lewis Research Center is testing the world's first integrated solar dynamic power system in a simulated space environment. This system converts solar thermal energy into electrical energy by using a closed-cycle gas turbine and alternator. A NASA-developed analysis code called the Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP) has been used for both pretest predictions and post-test analysis of system performance. The solar dynamic power system has a reflective concentrator that focuses solar thermal energy into a cavity receiver. The receiver is a heat exchanger that transfers the thermal power to a working fluid, an inert gas mixture of helium and xenon. The receiver also uses a phase-change material to store the thermal energy so that the system can continue producing power when there is no solar input power, such as when an Earth-orbiting satellite is in eclipse. The system uses a recuperated closed Brayton cycle to convert thermal power to mechanical power. Heated gas from the receiver expands through a turbine that turns an alternator and a compressor. The system also includes a gas cooler and a radiator, which reject waste cycle heat, and a recuperator, a gas-to-gas heat exchanger that improves cycle efficiency by recovering thermal energy. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000081668','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000081668">In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee 2000-01-01 The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22342192-periodic-analysis-solar-activity-its-link-arctic-oscillation-phenomenon','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22342192-periodic-analysis-solar-activity-its-link-arctic-oscillation-phenomenon">Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Qu, Weizheng; Li, Chun; Du, Ling 2014-12-01 Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to itsmore » positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19770006016','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19770006016">Evolution of the Solar System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G. 1976-01-01 The origin and evolution of the solar system are analyzed. Physical processes are first discussed, followed by experimental studies of plasma-solid reactions and chemical and mineralogical analyses of meteorites and lunar and terrestrial samples. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160012008','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160012008">Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Mlynczak, Marty; Hunt, Linda; Russell, James M., III 2016-01-01 The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ies..conf...47G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ies..conf...47G">Intensity Variations of Narrow Bands of Solar UV Radiation during Descending Phases of SACs 21-23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gigolashvili, M.; Kapanadze, N. 2014-12-01 The study of variations of four narrow bands of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet (UV) range for period 1981-2008 is presented. Observational data obtained by space-flight missions SORCE, UARS, SME and daily meanings of international sunspot number (ISN) have been used. The investigated data cover the decreasing phases of the solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23. We have revealed a peculiar behavior of intensity variability of some solar ultraviolet spectral lines originated in the solar chromospheres for period corresponding to the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. It is found that variability of emission of different solar spectral narrow bands (289.5 nm, 300.5 nm) does not agree equally well with ISN variability during decreasing phase of the solar activity cycle 23. The negative correlations between total solar irradiance and the solar spectral narrow bands of UV emission (298.5 nm, 300.5 nm) had been revealed. The existence of the negative correlation can be explained by the sensitivity of SSI of some emission lines to the solar global magnetic field. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900010301','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900010301">A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W. 1990-01-01 The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800053428&hterms=Principles+evolution&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DPrinciples%2Bevolution','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800053428&hterms=Principles+evolution&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DPrinciples%2Bevolution">Origin and evolution of planetary atmospheres</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Pollack, J. B.; Yung, Y. L. 1980-01-01 The current understanding of the origin and evolution of the atmospheres of solar system objects is reviewed. Physical processes that control this evolution are described in an attempt to develop a set of general principles that can help guide studies of specific objects. Particular emphasis is placed on the planetary and satellite atmospheres of the inner solar system objects; current hypotheses on the origin and evolution of these objects are critically considered. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMSH33A2035S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMSH33A2035S">Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Shibasaki, K. 2011-12-01 The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780000214&hterms=economics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DTitle%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Deconomics','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780000214&hterms=economics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DTitle%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Deconomics">The economics of solar powered absorption cooling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bartlett, J. C. 1978-01-01 Analytic procedure evaluates cost of combining absorption-cycle chiller with solar-energy system in residential or commercial application. Procedure assumes that solar-energy system already exists to heat building and that cooling system must be added. Decision is whether to cool building with conventional vapor-compression-cycle chiller or to use solar-energy system to provide heat input to absorption chiller. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1409301-impact-retail-electricity-tariff-evolution-solar-photovoltaic-deployment','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1409301-impact-retail-electricity-tariff-evolution-solar-photovoltaic-deployment">The impact of retail electricity tariff evolution on solar photovoltaic deployment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Gagnon, Pieter; Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany; ... 2017-11-10 Here, this analysis explores the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the deployment of solar photovoltaics. It suggests that ignoring the evolution of tariffs resulted in up to a 36% higher prediction of the capacity of distributed PV in 2050, compared to scenarios that represented tariff evolution. Critically, the evolution of tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV $-$ both utility-scale and distributed $-$ in the scenarios that were examined. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1409301-impact-retail-electricity-tariff-evolution-solar-photovoltaic-deployment','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1409301-impact-retail-electricity-tariff-evolution-solar-photovoltaic-deployment">The impact of retail electricity tariff evolution on solar photovoltaic deployment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Gagnon, Pieter; Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany Here, this analysis explores the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the deployment of solar photovoltaics. It suggests that ignoring the evolution of tariffs resulted in up to a 36% higher prediction of the capacity of distributed PV in 2050, compared to scenarios that represented tariff evolution. Critically, the evolution of tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV $-$ both utility-scale and distributed $-$ in the scenarios that were examined. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JGRD..113.7114F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JGRD..113.7114F">A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Fischer, P.; Tung, K. K. 2008-04-01 Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1710651S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1710651S">Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis 2015-04-01 The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017RMxAC..49R.156M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017RMxAC..49R.156M">Evolution of Earth Like Planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Monroy-Rodríguez, M. A.; Vega, K. M. 2017-07-01 In order to study and explain the evolution of our own planet we have done a review of works related to the evolution of Earth-like planets. From the stage of proto-planet to the loss of its atmosphere. The planetary formation from the gas and dust of the proto-planetary disk, considering the accretion by the process of migration, implies that the material on the proto-planet is very mixed. The newborn planet is hot and compact, it begins its process of stratification by gravity separation forming a super dense nucleus, an intermediate layer of convective mantle and an upper mantle that is less dense, with material that emerges from zones at very high pressure The surface with low pressure, in this process the planet expands and cools. This process also releases gas to the surface, forming the atmosphere, with the gas gravitationally bounded. The most important thing for the life of the planet is the layer of convective mantle, which produces the magnetic field, when it stops the magnetic field disappears, as well as the rings of van allen and the solar wind evaporates the atmosphere, accelerating the evolution and cooling of the planet. In a natural cycle of cataclysms and mass extinctions, the solar system crosses the galactic disk every 30 million years or so, the increase in the meteorite fall triggers the volcanic activity and the increase in the release of CO2 into the atmosphere reaching critical levels (4000 billion tons) leads us to an extinction by overheating that last 100 000 years, the time it takes CO2 to sediment to the ocean floor. Human activity will lead us to reach critical levels of CO2 in approximately 300 years. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780009543','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780009543">Technical and economic feasibility study of solar/fossil hybrid power systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bloomfield, H. S.; Calogeras, J. E. 1977-01-01 Results show that new hybrid systems utilizing fossil fuel augmentation of solar energy can provide significant capital and energy cost benefits when compared with solar thermal systems requiring thermal storage. These benefits accrue from a reduction of solar collection area that results from both the use of highly efficient gas and combined cycle energy conversion subsystems and elimination of the requirement for long-term energy storage subsystems. Technical feasibility and fuel savings benefits of solar hybrid retrofit to existing fossil-fired, gas and vapor cycle powerplants was confirmed; however, economic viability of steam cycle retrofit was found to be dependent on the thermodynamic and operational characteristics of the existing powerplant. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26085362','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26085362">Effects of Space Weather on Biomedical Parameters during the Solar Activity Cycles 23-24.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Ragul'skaya, M V; Rudenchik, E A; Chibisov, S M; Gromozova, E N 2015-06-01 The results of long-term (1998-2012) biomedical monitoring of the biotropic effects of space weather are discussed. A drastic change in statistical distribution parameters in the middle of 2005 was revealed that did not conform to usual sinusoidal distribution of the biomedical data reflecting changes in the number of solar spots over a solar activity cycle. The dynamics of space weather of 2001-2012 is analyzed. The authors hypothesize that the actual change in statistical distributions corresponds to the adaptation reaction of the biosphere to nonstandard geophysical characteristics of the 24th solar activity cycle and the probable long-term decrease in solar activity up to 2067. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030066927','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030066927">Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Shea, M. A. 2003-01-01 The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012Ge%26Ae..52..547M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012Ge%26Ae..52..547M">Oscillations of galactic cosmic rays and solar indices before the arrival of relativistic solar protons</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Miroshnichenko, L. I.; Pérez-Peraza, J. A.; Velasco-Herrera, V. M.; Zapotitla, J.; Vashenyuk, E. V. 2012-09-01 Using modern wavelet analysis techniques, we have made an attempt to search for oscillations of intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), sunspot numbers (SS) and magnitudes of coronal index (CI) implying that the time evolution of those oscillations may serve as a precursor of Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays (SCR). From total number of 70 GLEs registered in 1942-2006, the four large events — 23 February 1956, 14 July 2000, 28 October 2003, and 20 January 2005 — have been chosen for our study. By the results of our analysis, it was shown that a frequency of oscillations of GCR decreases as time approaches to the event day. We have also studied a behaviour of common periodicities of GCR and SCR within the time interval of individual GLE. The oscillations of GLE occurrence rate (OR) at different stages of the solar activity (SA) cycle is of special interest. We have found some common periodicities of SS and CI in the range of short (2.8, 5.2, 27 and 60 days), medium (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.3, 1.8 and 3.2 years) and long (4.6 and 11.0 years) periods. Short and medium periodicities, in general, are rather concentrated around the maxima of solar cycles and display the complex phase relations. When comparing these results with the behaviour of OR oscillations we found that the period of 11 years is dominating (controlling); it is continuous over the entire time interval of 1942-2006, and during all this time it displays high synchronization and clear linear ratios between the phases of oscillations of η, SS and CI. It implies that SCR generation is not isolated stochastic phenomena characteristic exclusively for chromospheric and/or coronal structures. In fact, this process may have global features and involve large regions in the Sun's atmosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSA31D2360L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSA31D2360L">Aurora Activities Observed by SNPP VIIRS Day-Night Band during St. Patrick's Day, 2015 G4 Level Geomagnetic Storm</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Liu, T. C.; Shao, X.; Cao, C.; Zhang, B.; Fung, S. F.; Sharma, S. 2015-12-01 A G4 level (severe) geomagnetic storm occurred on March 17 (St. Patrick's Day), 2015 and it is among the strongest geomagnetic storms of the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24). The storm is identified as due to the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) which erupted on March 15 from Region 2297 of solar surface. During this event, the geomagnetic storm index Dst reached -223 nT and the geomagnetic aurora electrojet (AE) index increased and reached as high as >2200 nT with large amplitude fluctuations. Aurora occurred in both hemispheres. Ground auroral sightings were reported from Michigan to Alaska and as far south as southern Colorado. The Day Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard Suomi-NPP represents a major advancement in night time imaging capabilities. The DNB senses radiance that can span 7 orders of magnitude in one panchromatic (0.5-0.9 μm) reflective solar band and provides imagery of clouds and other Earth features over illumination levels ranging from full sunlight to quarter moon. In this paper, DNB observations of aurora activities during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm are analyzed. Aurora are observed to evolve with salient features by DNB for orbital pass on the night side (~local time 1:30am) in both hemispheres. The radiance data from DNB observation are collected at the night sides of southern and northern hemispheres and geo-located onto geomagnetic local time (MLT) coordinates. Regions of aurora during each orbital pass are identified through image processing by contouring radiance values and excluding regions with stray light near day-night terminator. The evolution of aurora are characterized with time series of the poleward and low latitude boundary of aurora, their latitude-span and area, peak radiance and total light emission of the aurora region in DNB observation. These characteristic parameters are correlated with solar wind and geomagnetic index parameters. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1866e0007N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1866e0007N">Energy comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Novosel, Urška; Avsec, Jurij 2017-07-01 The combined use of renewable energy and alternative energy systems and better efficiency of energy devices is a promising approach to reduce effects due to global warming in the world. On the basis of first and second law of thermodynamics we could optimize the processes in the energy sector. The presented paper shows the comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant in terms of energy, exergy and life cycle analysis. Solar thermal power plant produces electricity with basic Rankine cycle, using solar tower and solar mirrors to produce high fluid temperature. Heat from the solar system is transferred by using a heat exchanger to Rankine cycle. Both power plants produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The paper shows the global efficiency of the system, regarding production of the energy system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.2504L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.2504L">Solar forcing - implications for the volatile inventory on Mars and Venus. (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lundin, Rickard 2015-04-01 Planets in the solar system are exposed to a persistent solar forcing by solar irradiation and the solar wind. The forcing, most pronounced for the inner Earth-like planets, ionizes, heats, modifies chemically, and gradually erodes the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the planets. Of the four inner planets, the Earth is at present the only one habitable. Our kin Venus and Mars have taken different evolutionary paths, the present lack of a hydrosphere being the most significant difference. However, there are ample evidence for that an early Noachian, water rich period existed on Mars. Similarly, arguments have been presented for an early water-rich period on Venus. The question is, what made Mars and Venus evolve in such a different way compared to the Earth? Under the assumption of similar initial conditions, the planets may have experienced different externally driven episodes (e.g. impacts) with time. Conversely, internal factors on Mars and Venus made them less resilient, unable to sustain solar forcing on an evolutionary time-scale. The latter has been quantified from simulations, combining atmospheric and ionospheric modeling and empiric data from solar-like stars (Sun in time). In a similar way, semi-empirical models based on experimental data were used to determine the mass-loss of volatiles back in time from Mars and Venus. This presentation will review further aspects of semi-empirical modeling based on ion and energetic neutral atom (ENA) escape data from Mars and Venus - on short term (days), mid-term (solar cycle proxies), long-term (Heliospheric flux proxies, 10 000 year), and on time scales corresponding to the solar evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010124073','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010124073">Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M. 2001-01-01 Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5394252','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5394252">On the attempts to measure water (and other volatiles) directly at the surface of a comet</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Sheridan, S.; Morgan, G. H.; Barber, S. J.; Morse, A. D. 2017-01-01 The Ptolemy instrument on the Philae lander (of the Rosetta space mission) was able to make measurements of the major volatiles, water, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, directly at the surface of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko. We give some background to the mission and highlight those instruments that have already given insights into the notion of water in comets, and which will continue to do so as more results are either acquired or more fully interpreted. On the basis of our results, we show how comets may in fact be heterogeneous over their surface, and how surface measurements can be used in a quest to comprehend the daily cycles of processes that affect the evolution of comets. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System’. PMID:28416724 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017RSPTA.37550385W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017RSPTA.37550385W">On the attempts to measure water (and other volatiles) directly at the surface of a comet</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wright, I. P.; Sheridan, S.; Morgan, G. H.; Barber, S. J.; Morse, A. D. 2017-04-01 The Ptolemy instrument on the Philae lander (of the Rosetta space mission) was able to make measurements of the major volatiles, water, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, directly at the surface of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. We give some background to the mission and highlight those instruments that have already given insights into the notion of water in comets, and which will continue to do so as more results are either acquired or more fully interpreted. On the basis of our results, we show how comets may in fact be heterogeneous over their surface, and how surface measurements can be used in a quest to comprehend the daily cycles of processes that affect the evolution of comets. This article is part of the themed issue 'The origin, history and role of water in the evolution of the inner Solar System'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000023157','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000023157">An Investigation of the Large Scale Evolution and Topology of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Riley, Peter 2000-01-01 This investigation is concerned with the large-scale evolution and topology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. During this reporting period we have focused on several aspects of CME properties, their identification and their evolution in the solar wind. The work included both analysis of Ulysses and ACE observations as well as fluid and magnetohydrodynamic simulations. In addition, we analyzed a series of "density holes" observed in the solar wind, that bear many similarities with CMEs. Finally, this work was communicated to the scientific community at three meetings and has led to three scientific papers that are in various stages of review. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013315','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013315">Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Planetary Mission Science</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Cooper, John F. 2011-01-01 We often look "through a glass, darkly" at solar system bodies with tenuous atmospheres and direct surface exposure to the local space environment. Space weathering exposure acts via universal space-surface interaction processes to produce a thin patina of outer material covering, potentially obscuring endogenic surface materials of greatest interest for understanding origins and interior evolution. Examples of obscuring exogenic layers are radiation crusts on cometary nuclei and iogenic components of sulfate hydrate deposits on the trailing hemisphere of Europa. Weathering processes include plasma ion implantation into surfaces, sputtering by charged particles and solar ultraviolet photons, photolytic chemistry driven by UV irradiation, and radiolytic chemistry evolving from products of charged particle irradiation. Regolith structure from impacts, and underlying deeper structures from internal evolution, affects efficacy of certain surface interactions, e.g. sputtering as affected by porosity and surface irradiation dosage as partly attenuated by local topographic shielding. These processes should be regarded for mission science planning as potentially enabling, e.g. since direct surface sputtering, and resultant surface-bound exospheres, can provide in-situ samples of surface composition to ion and neutral mass spectrometers on orbital spacecraft. Sample return for highest sensitivity compOSitional and structural analyses at Earth will usually be precluded by limited range of surface sampling, long times for return, and high cost. Targeted advancements in instrument technology would be more cost efficient for local remote and in-situ sample analysis. More realistic laboratory simulations, e.g. for bulk samples, are needed to interpret mission science observations of weathered surfaces. Space environment effects on mission spacecraft and science operations must also be specified and mitigated from the hourly to monthly changes in space weather and from longer term (e.g., solar cycle) evolution of space climate. Capable instrumentation on planetary missions can and should be planned to contribute to knowledge of interplanetary space environments. Evolving data system technologies such as virtual observatories should be explored for more interdisciplinary application to the science of planetary surface, atmospheric, magnetospheric, and interplanetary interactions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MNRAS.470..276S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MNRAS.470..276S">Carrington cycle 24: the solar chromospheric emission in a historical and stellar perspective</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schröder, K.-P.; Mittag, M.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Jack, D.; Hempelmann, A.; González-Pérez, J. N. 2017-09-01 We present the solar S-index record of cycle 24, obtained by the Telescopio Internacional de Guanajuato, Robotico Espectroscopico robotic telescope facility and its high-resolution spectrograph HEROS (R ≈ 20 000), which measures the solar chromospheric Ca II H&K line emission by using moonlight. Our calibration process uses the same set of standard stars as introduced by the Mount Wilson team, thus giving us a direct comparison with their huge body of observations taken between 1966 and 1992, as well as with other cool stars. Carrington cycle 24 activity started from the unusually deep and long minimum 2008/2009, with an S-index average of only 0.154, 0.015 deeper than the one of 1986 (〈S〉 = 0.169). In this respect, the chromospheric radiative losses differ remarkably from the variation of the coronal radio flux F10.7 cm and the sunspot numbers. In addition, the cycle 24 S-amplitude remained small, 0.022 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.024), and so resulted in a very low 2014 maximum of 〈S〉 = 0.176 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.193). We argue that this find is significant, since the Ca II H&K line emission is a good proxy for the solar far-ultraviolet (far-UV) flux, which plays an important role in the heating of the Earth's stratosphere, and we further argue that the solar far-UV flux changes with solar activity much more strongly than the total solar output. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4751534','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4751534">Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Ng, Kim Kwee 2016-01-01 An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663825-simulation-study-hemispheric-phase-asymmetry-solar-cycle','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663825-simulation-study-hemispheric-phase-asymmetry-solar-cycle">SIMULATION STUDY OF HEMISPHERIC PHASE-ASYMMETRY IN THE SOLAR CYCLE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Shukuya, D.; Kusano, K., E-mail: kusano@nagoya-u.jp 2017-01-20 Observations of the Sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north–south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar cycle. Svalgaard and Kamide recently pointed out that the time gaps of polar field reversal between the northern and southern hemispheres are simply consequences of the asymmetry of sunspot activity. However, the mechanism underlying the asymmetric feature in solar cycle activity is not yet well understood. In this paper, in order to explain the cause of the asymmetry from the theoretical point of view, we investigatemore » the relationship between the dipole- and quadrupole-type components of the magnetic field in the solar cycle using the mean-field theory based on the flux transport dynamo model. As a result, we found that there are two different attractors of the solar cycle, in which either the north or the south polar field is first reversed, and that the flux transport dynamo model explains well the phase-asymmetry of sunspot activity and the polar field reversal without any ad hoc source of asymmetry.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110011249','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110011249">Interplanetary Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gopalswamy, Nat 2011-01-01 Although more than ten thousand coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are produced during each solar cycle at the Sun, only a small fraction hits the Earth. Only a small fraction of the Earth-directed CMEs ultimately arrive at Earth depending on their interaction with the solar wind and other large-scale structures such as coronal holes and CMEs. The interplanetary propagation is essentially controlled by the drag force because the propelling force and the solar gravity are significant only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote-sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Attempts to overcome this problem are made in two ways: the first is to model the CME and get the space speed of the CME, which can be compared with the in situ speed. The second method is to use stereoscopic observation so that the remote-sensed and in-situ observations make measurements on the Earth-arriving part of CMEs. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission observed several such CMEs, which helped understand the interplanetary evolution of these CMEs and to test earlier model results. This paper discusses some of these issues and updates the CME/shock travel time estimates for a number of CMEs. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5445778','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5445778">Review of the Two-Step H2O/CO2-Splitting Solar Thermochemical Cycle Based on Zn/ZnO Redox Reactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Loutzenhiser, Peter G.; Meier, Anton; Steinfeld, Aldo 2010-01-01 This article provides a comprehensive overview of the work to date on the two‑step solar H2O and/or CO2 splitting thermochemical cycles with Zn/ZnO redox reactions to produce H2 and/or CO, i.e., synthesis gas—the precursor to renewable liquid hydrocarbon fuels. The two-step cycle encompasses: (1) The endothermic dissociation of ZnO to Zn and O2 using concentrated solar energy as the source for high-temperature process heat; and (2) the non-solar exothermic oxidation of Zn with H2O/CO2 to generate H2/CO, respectively; the resulting ZnO is then recycled to the first step. An outline of the underlying science and the technological advances in solar reactor engineering is provided along with life cycle and economic analyses. PMID:28883361 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001284','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20180001284">Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A. 2017-01-01 Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006GeoRL..33.3105H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006GeoRL..33.3105H">Long dance of the bashful ballerina</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K. 2006-02-01 In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19720006380','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19720006380">Simulated space environment tests on cadmium sulfide solar cells</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Clarke, D. R.; Oman, H. 1971-01-01 Cadmium sulfide (Cu2s - CdS) solar cells were tested under simulated space environmental conditions. Some cells were thermally cycled with illumination from a Xenon-arc solar simulator. A cycle was one hour of illumination followed immediately with one-half hour of darkness. In the light, the cells reached an equilibrium temperature of 60 C (333 K) and in the dark the cell temperature dropped to -120 C (153 K). Other cells were constantly illuminated with a Xenon-arc solar simulator. The equilibrium temperature of these cells was 55 C (328 K). The black vacuum chamber walls were cooled with liquid nitrogen to simulate a space heat sink. Chamber pressure was maintained at 0.000001 torr or less. Almost all of the solar cells tested degraded in power when exposed to a simulated space environment of either thermal cycling or constant illumination. The cells tested the longest were exposed to 10.050 thermal cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2466K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH13A2466K">Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A. 2017-12-01 Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890031692&hterms=layers+atmosphere&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dlayers%2Batmosphere','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19890031692&hterms=layers+atmosphere&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dlayers%2Batmosphere">Influence of heating rate on the condensational instability. [in outer layers of solar atmosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Dahlburg, R. B.; Mariska, J. T. 1988-01-01 Analysis and numerical simulation are used to determine the effect that various heating rates have on the linear and nonlinear evolution of a typical plasma within a solar magnetic flux tube subject to the condensational instability. It is found that linear stability depends strongly on the heating rate. The results of numerical simulations of the nonlinear evolution of the condensational instability in a solar magnetic flux tube are presented. Different heating rates lead to quite different nonlinear evolutions, as evidenced by the behavior of the global internal energy. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH43D2588P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSH43D2588P">Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S. 2016-12-01 Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131501W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23131501W">Considering Planetary Constraints and Dynamic Screening in Solar Evolution Modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wood, Suzannah R.; Mussack, Katie; Guzik, Joyce A. 2018-01-01 The ‘faint early sun problem’ remains unsolved. This problem consists of the apparent contradiction between the standard solar model prediction of lower luminosity (70% of current luminosity) and the observations of liquid water on early Earth and Mars. The presence of liquid water on early Earth and Mars should not be neglected and should be used as a constraint for solar evolution modeling. In addition, modifications to standard solar models are needed to address the discrepancy with solar structure inferred from helioseismology given the latest solar abundance determinations. Here, we will utilize the three different solar abundances: GN93 (Grevesse & Noels, 1993), AGS05 (Asplund et al., 2005), AGSS09 (Asplund et al., 2009). Here, we propose an early mass loss model with an initial solar mass between 1.07 and 1.15 solar masses and an exponentially decreasing mass-loss rate to meet conditions in the early solar system (Wood et al, submitted). Additionally, we investigate the effects of dynamic screening and the new OPLIB opacities from Los Alamos (Colgan et al., 2016). We show the effects of these modifications to the standard solar evolution models on the interior structure, neutrino fluxes, sound speed, p-mode frequencies, convection zone depth, and envelope helium and element abundance of the model sun at the present day. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850024395','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850024395">The evolution of complex and higher organisms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Milne, D. (Editor); Raup, D. (Editor); Billingham, J. (Editor); Niklaus, K. (Editor); Padian, K. (Editor) 1985-01-01 The evolution of Phanerozoic life has probably been influenced by extraterrestrial events and properties of the Earth-Moon system that have not, until now, been widely recognized. Tide range, gravitational strength, the Earth's axial tilt, and other planetary properties provide background conditions whose effects on evolution may be difficult to distinguish. Solar flares, asteroid impacts, supernovae, and passage of the solar system through galactic clouds can provide catastrophic changes on the Earth with consequent characteristic extinctions. Study of the fossil record and the evolution of complex Phanerozoic life can reveal evidence of past disturbances in space near the Earth. Conversely, better understanding of environmental influences caused by extraterrestrial factors and properties of the solar system can clarify aspects of evolution, and may aid in visualizing life on other planets with different properties. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25787153','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25787153">The evolution of life cycle complexity in aphids: Ecological optimization or historical constraint?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hardy, Nate B; Peterson, Daniel A; von Dohlen, Carol D 2015-06-01 For decades, biologists have debated why many parasites have obligate multihost life cycles. Here, we use comparative phylogenetic analyses of aphids to evaluate the roles of ecological optimization and historical constraint in the evolution of life cycle complexity. If life cycle complexity is adaptive, it should be evolutionarily labile, that is, change in response to selection. We provide evidence that this is true in some aphids (aphidines), but not others (nonaphidines)-groups that differ in the intensity of their relationships with primary hosts. Next, we test specific mechanisms by which life cycle complexity could be adaptive or a constraint. We find that among aphidines there is a strong association between complex life cycles and polyphagy but only a weak correlation between life cycle complexity and reproductive mode. In contrast, among nonaphidines the relationship between life cycle complexity and host breadth is weak but the association between complex life cycles and sexual reproduction is strong. Thus, although the adaptiveness of life cycle complexity appears to be lineage specific, across aphids, life cycle evolution appears to be tightly linked with the evolution of other important natural history traits. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017STP.....3b...5L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017STP.....3b...5L">Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lin, Ganghua; Wang, Xiao Fan; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Suo; Zhang, Mei; Wang, Haimin; Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Tlatov, Andrey; Demidov, Mihail; Borovik, Aleksandr; Golovko, Aleksey 2017-06-01 This article introduces our ongoing project "Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research". Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a time span of more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant signs of progress are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780009540','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19780009540">Application of solar energy to air conditioning systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Nash, J. M.; Harstad, A. J. 1976-01-01 The results of a survey of solar energy system applications of air conditioning are summarized. Techniques discussed are both solar powered (absorption cycle and the heat engine/Rankine cycle) and solar related (heat pump). Brief descriptions of the physical implications of various air conditioning techniques, discussions of status, proposed technological improvements, methods of utilization and simulation models are presented, along with an extensive bibliography of related literature. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018A%26A...609A..32M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018A%26A...609A..32M">Quasi-periodic changes in the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays for 1965-2014</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Modzelewska, R.; Alania, M. V. 2018-01-01 Aims: We study features of the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) for 1965-2014 (almost five solar cycles, cycles 20-24). We analyze the 27-day variations of the 2D GCR anisotropy in the ecliptic plane and the north-south anisotropy normal to the ecliptic plane. We study the dependence of the 27-day variation of the 3D GCR anisotropy on the solar cycle and solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the 27-day variations of the GCR intensity and anisotropy can be used as an important tool to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. Methods: We used the components Ar, Aϕ and At of the 3D GCR anisotropy that were found based on hourly data of neutron monitors (NMs) and muon telescopes (MTs) using the harmonic analyses and spectrographic methods. We corrected the 2D diurnal ( 24-h) variation of the GCR intensity for the influence of the Earth magnetic field. We derived the north-south component of the GCR anisotropy based on the GG index, which is calculated as the difference in GCR intensities of the Nagoya multidirectional MTs. Results: We show that the behavior of the 27-day variation of the 3D anisotropy verifies a stable long-lived active heliolongitude on the Sun. This illustrates the usefulness of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy as a unique proxy to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. We distinguish a tendency of the 22-yr changes in amplitude of the 27-day variation of the 2D anisotropy that is connected with the solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the north-south component of the anisotropy vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, but a dependence of the solar magnetic polarity can hardly be recognized. We show that the 27-day recurrences of the GG index and the At component are highly positively correlated, and both are highly correlated with the By component of the heliospheric magnetic field. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4830603K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPD....4830603K">Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S. 2017-08-01 The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126693-study-hemispheric-asymmetry-sunspot-area-during-solar-cycles','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22126693-study-hemispheric-asymmetry-sunspot-area-during-solar-cycles">A STUDY OF THE HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRY OF SUNSPOT AREA DURING SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Chowdhury, Partha; Choudhary, D. P.; Gosain, Sanjay, E-mail: partha240@yahoo.co.in, E-mail: parthares@gmail.com, E-mail: debiprasad.choudhary@csun.edu, E-mail: sgosain@nso.edu 2013-05-10 Solar activity indices vary over the Sun's disk, and various activity parameters are not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. The north-south asymmetry of different solar indices provides an important clue to understanding subphotospheric dynamics and solar dynamo action, especially with regard to nonlinear dynamo models. In the present work, we study the statistical significance of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot areas for the complete solar cycle 23 (1996-2008) and rising branch of cycle 24 (first 45 months). The preferred hemisphere in each year of cycles 23 and 24 has been identified bymore » calculating the probability of hemispheric distribution of sunspot areas. The statistically significant intermediate-term periodicities of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot area data have also been investigated using Lomb-Scargle and wavelet techniques. A number of short- and mid-term periods including the best-known Rieger one (150-160 days) are detected in cycle 23 and near Rieger-type periods during cycle 24, and most of them are found to be time variable. We present our results and discuss their possible explanations with the help of theoretical models and observations.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900049510&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DButterfly','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900049510&hterms=Butterfly&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DButterfly">A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth H. 1990-01-01 A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ApJ...823....8T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ApJ...823....8T">Electron Cyclotron Maser Emissions from Evolving Fast Electron Beams</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tang, J. F.; Wu, D. J.; Chen, L.; Zhao, G. Q.; Tan, C. M. 2016-05-01 Fast electron beams (FEBs) are common products of solar active phenomena. Solar radio bursts are an important diagnostic tool for understanding FEBs and the solar plasma environment in which they propagate along solar magnetic fields. In particular, the evolution of the energy spectrum and velocity distribution of FEBs due to the interaction with the ambient plasma and field during propagation can significantly influence the efficiency and properties of their emissions. In this paper, we discuss the possible evolution of the energy spectrum and velocity distribution of FEBs due to energy loss processes and the pitch-angle effect caused by magnetic field inhomogeneity, and we analyze the effects of the evolution on electron-cyclotron maser (ECM) emission, which is one of the most important mechanisms for producing solar radio bursts by FEBs. Our results show that the growth rates all decrease with the energy loss factor Q, but increase with the magnetic mirror ratio σ as well as with the steepness index δ. Moreover, the evolution of FEBs can also significantly influence the fastest growing mode and the fastest growing phase angle. This leads to the change of the polarization sense of the ECM emission. In particular, our results also reveal that an FEB that undergoes different evolution processes will generate different types of ECM emission. We believe the present results to be very helpful for a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamic spectra of solar radio bursts. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010hesa.book.....S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010hesa.book.....S">Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L. 2010-09-01 Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012hesa.book.....S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012hesa.book.....S">Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L. 2012-01-01 Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E.155A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E.155A">Novel approaches to mid-long term weather and climate forecast based on the solar-geomagnetic signal</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Avakyan, Sergey; Baranova, Lubov Two possibilities are discussed concerning the use of data on solar-geomagnetic activity for meteorological forecasting (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation). The first possibility is consideration of quasicyclic recurrence of large solar flares and geomagnetic storms with periods of 2 - 5 years. For the periods shorter than one year the second possibility is taking into account: the negative correlation of total global cloud cover with the number of solar spots and positive correlation with the total solar irradiance (TSI) - the contribution of short wave radiation of faculae fields. To justify the mechanism of solar-tropospheric links, it is obviously necessary to provide explanation for the observed dependence of weather and climate on usual cyclic activity of the Sun. Meteorologists and even geophysicists have found no significant correlation between atmospheric parameters and either number of solar spots or variations of solar constant. It was found that temperature did not display any variability with the 11-year period (the basic solar cycle). Instead stable quasi-periodic variations of temperature of air within 2 - 5.5 years and also for the precipitation periods in the interval 2 to 6 years were observed. Each 11-year cycle displays two maxima for the probability of solar X-ray and extreme UV flares and for probability of medium and strong geomagnetic storms (2 to 4 years for the flares and 2 to 6 years for significant magnetic storms), and those induced by solar flares, the latter, as a rule, between the maximum points of the number of geomagnetic storms. On a timescale of about a year or shorter, a correlation is revealed between the occurrence of the total cloudiness and the sunspot and faculae activity (number of solar spots and the value of the solar constant - TSI). From the number of sunspots and the data concerning faculae fields, on the basis of the known statistics for the lifetime of these formation in the solar photosphere, it is possible to forecasting the variation in the area of cloud and consequently the thermal radiative balance of the Earth (the temperature anomalies) for several months ahead. The physics of these manifestations of the effect of the "solar signal" on the troposphere is also related with our radio-optical three-stage trigger mechanism. The microwave radiation generated by ionosphere under the influence of the enhanced solar and geomagnetic activity (increased fluxes of the ionizing solar radiation during solar flares and of electrons precipitated from radiation belts during magnetic storms) affects the cluster condensation process of origination and further evolution of optically thin cloudiness, including the formation of precipitation in the course of «sowing» by crystals from upper-layer clouds. These clouds cause a net warming due to their relative transparence at short wavelengths but opacity in the infrared region (where there is flux of the thermal radiation coming out from the underlying surface). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19770000106&hterms=air+conditioner&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dair%2Bconditioner','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19770000106&hterms=air+conditioner&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dair%2Bconditioner">Solar-powered air-conditioning</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Clark, D. C.; Rousseau, J. 1977-01-01 Report focuses on recent study on development of solar-powered residential air conditioners and is based on selected literature through 1975. Its purposes are to characterize thermal and mechanical systems that might be useful in development of Rankine-cycle approach to solar cooling and assessment of a Lithium Bromide/Water absorption cycle system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=232678&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=232678&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22130978-two-novel-parameters-evaluate-global-complexity-sun-magnetic-field-track-solar-cycle','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22130978-two-novel-parameters-evaluate-global-complexity-sun-magnetic-field-track-solar-cycle">TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu 2013-08-20 Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...605A..19O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017A%26A...605A..19O">Fifteen years in the high-energy life of the solar-type star HD 81809. XMM-Newton observations of a stellar activity cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Orlando, S.; Favata, F.; Micela, G.; Sciortino, S.; Maggio, A.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Robrade, J.; Mittag, M. 2017-09-01 Context. The modulation of the activity level of solar-like stars is commonly revealed by cyclic variations in their chromospheric indicators, such as the Ca II H&K S-index, similarly to what is observed in our Sun. However, while the variation of solar activity is also reflected in the cyclical modulation of its coronal X-ray emission, similar behavior has only been discovered in a few stars other than the Sun. Aims: The data set of the long-term XMM-Newton monitoring program of HD 81809 is analyzed to study its X-ray cycle, investigate if the latter is related to the chromospheric cycle, infer the structure of the corona of HD 81809, and explore if the coronal activity of HD 81809 can be ascribed to phenomena similar to solar activity and, therefore, considered an extension of the solar case. Methods: We analyzed the observations of HD 81809 performed with XMM-Newton with a regular cadence of six months from 2001 to 2016, which represents one of the longest available observational baseline ( 15 yr) for a solar-like star with a well-studied chromospheric cycle (with a period of 8 yr). We investigated the modulation of coronal luminosity and temperature and its relation with the chromospheric cycle. We interpreted the data in terms of a mixture of solar-like coronal regions, adopting a method originally proposed to study the Sun as an X-ray star. Results: The observations show a well-defined regular cyclic modulation of the X-ray luminosity that reflects the activity level of HD 81809. The data covers approximately two cycles of coronal activity; the modulation has an amplitude of a factor of 5 (excluding evident flares, as in the June 2002 observation) and a period of 7.3 ± 1.5 yr, which is consistent with that of the chromospheric cycle. We demonstrate that the corona of HD 81809 can be interpreted as an extension of the solar case and can be modeled with a mixture of solar-like coronal regions along the whole cycle. The activity level is mainly determined by varying coverage of very bright active regions, similar to cores of active regions observed in the Sun. Evidence of unresolved significant flaring activity is present especially in the proximity of cycle maxima. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E..77H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E..77H">42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino 2016-07-01 Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA11A2242S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA11A2242S">Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G. 2017-12-01 This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22666270-formation-plasma-circulation-solar-prominences','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22666270-formation-plasma-circulation-solar-prominences"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Xia, C.; Keppens, R. Solar prominences are long-lived cool and dense plasma curtains in the hot and rarefied outer solar atmosphere or corona. The physical mechanism responsible for their formation and especially for their internal plasma circulation has been uncertain for decades. The observed ubiquitous downflows in quiescent prominences are difficult to interpret because plasma with high conductivity seems to move across horizontal magnetic field lines. Here we present three-dimensional numerical simulations of prominence formation and evolution in an elongated magnetic flux rope as a result of in situ plasma condensations fueled by continuous plasma evaporation from the solar chromosphere. The prominence is bornmore » and maintained in a fragmented, highly dynamic state with continuous reappearance of multiple blobs and thread structures that move mainly downward, dragging along mass-loaded field lines. The circulation of prominence plasma is characterized by the dynamic balance between the drainage of prominence plasma back to the chromosphere and the formation of prominence plasma via continuous condensation. Plasma evaporates from the chromosphere, condenses into the prominence in the corona, and drains back to the chromosphere, establishing a stable chromosphere–corona plasma cycle. Synthetic images of the modeled prominence with the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly closely resemble actual observations, with many dynamical threads underlying an elliptical coronal cavity.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRA..123.1006Q','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRA..123.1006Q">Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M. 2018-01-01 We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ApJ...712.1100M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ApJ...712.1100M">Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J. 2010-04-01 We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005363','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005363">The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Suggs, Ron 2017-01-01 The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950033056&hterms=physical+activity&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dphysical%2Bactivity','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950033056&hterms=physical+activity&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dphysical%2Bactivity">Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R. 1994-01-01 We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JASTP.171..131K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JASTP.171..131K">Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin 2018-06-01 We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663854-formation-maintenance-dominant-southern-polar-crown-cavity-cycle','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22663854-formation-maintenance-dominant-southern-polar-crown-cavity-cycle">The Formation and Maintenance of the Dominant Southern Polar Crown Cavity of Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Karna, N.; Pesnell, W. D.; Zhang, J. 2017-02-01 In this article, we report a study of the longest-lived polar crown cavity of Solar Cycle 24, using an observation from 2013, and propose a physical mechanism to explain its sustained existence. We used high temporal and spatial resolution observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO ) to explore the structure and evolution of the cavity. Although it existed for more than a year, we examined the circumpolar cavity in great detail from 2013 March 21 to 2013 October 31. Our study reinforces the existingmore » theory of formation of polar crown filaments that involves two basic processes to form any polar crown cavity as well as the long-lived cavity that we studied here. First, the underlying polarity inversion line (PIL) of the circumpolar cavity is formed between (1) the trailing part of dozens of decayed active regions distributed in different longitudes and (2) the unipolar magnetic field in the polar coronal hole. Second, the long life of the cavity is sustained by the continuing flux cancellation along the PIL. The flux is persistently transported toward the polar region through surface meridional flow and diffusion. The continuing flux cancellation leads to the shrinking of the polar coronal hole.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000635&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dcycles','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000635&hterms=cycles&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dcycles">The Formation and Maintenance of the Dominant Southern Polar Crown Cavity of Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Karna, N.; Zhang, J.; Pesnell, W. D. 2017-01-01 In this article, we report a study of the longest-lived polar crown cavity of Solar Cycle 24, using an observation from 2013, and propose a physical mechanism to explain its sustained existence. We used high temporal and spatial resolution observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to explore the structure and evolution of the cavity. Although it existed for more than a year, we examined the circumpolar cavity in great detail from 2013 March 21 to 2013 October 31. Our study reinforces the existing theory of formation of polar crown filaments that involves two basic processes to form any polar crown cavity as well as the long-lived cavity that we studied here. First, the underlying polarity inversion line (PIL) of the circumpolar cavity is formed between (1) the trailing part of dozens of decayed active regions distributed in different longitudes and (2) the unipolar magnetic field in the polar coronal hole. Second, the long life of the cavity is sustained by the continuing flux cancellation along the PIL. The flux is persistently transported toward the polar region through surface meridional flow and diffusion. The continuing flux cancellation leads to the shrinking of the polar coronal hole. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28706068','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28706068">Reconciling solar and stellar magnetic cycles with nonlinear dynamo simulations.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Strugarek, A; Beaudoin, P; Charbonneau, P; Brun, A S; do Nascimento, J-D 2017-07-14 The magnetic fields of solar-type stars are observed to cycle over decadal periods-11 years in the case of the Sun. The fields originate in the turbulent convective layers of stars and have a complex dependency upon stellar rotation rate. We have performed a set of turbulent global simulations that exhibit magnetic cycles varying systematically with stellar rotation and luminosity. We find that the magnetic cycle period is inversely proportional to the Rossby number, which quantifies the influence of rotation on turbulent convection. The trend relies on a fundamentally nonlinear dynamo process and is compatible with the Sun's cycle and those of other solar-type stars. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140012675','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140012675">Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew 2014-01-01 We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Ge%26Ae..57..549K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Ge%26Ae..57..549K">Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A. 2017-09-01 This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113158V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113158V">Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K. 2009-04-01 We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=306030&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=306030&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4122154','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4122154">Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Zurbenko, Igor 2014-01-01 Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH41E2412B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMSH41E2412B">Modeling of the solar cycle modulated interstellar He, Ne, and O pick-up ion flux along the Earth orbit</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bzowski, M.; Sokol, J. M.; Kubiak, M. A.; Moebius, E. 2015-12-01 Interstellar pick-up ions (PUIs) are used to study in-situ the interstellar flow through the heliosphere. The locations of the peaks of the downwind focusing cone and the upwind crescent as observed in the PUI flux have been used as signatures for the flow direction of neutral interstellar (ISN) gas into the heliosphere. We study the modulation of interstellar He, Ne, and O PUI along the Earth orbit over almost the entire solar activity cycle from 2002 to 2013. We present the expected density of ISN atoms and the resulting PUI fluxes with their modulation due to varying ionization over the solar cycle. Considering the important role of the finite injection speed of ISN atoms and of adiabatic PUI cooling, we show that Ne and O always form an upwind crescent in the PUI flux, but that the crescent formation for He PUIs strongly depends on the integration boundaries for the PUI distribution. Because the crescent has been observed for all three species, we find that the classical model of PUI evolution by Vasyliunas & Siscoe (1976) may not be sufficient to reproduce the upwind structure of He PUIs. We also find that ecliptic longitude of the PUI peak in the focusing cone is a good proxy for the inflow direction of ISN He and Ne during solar minimum, but not for ISN O, which exhibits a systematic shift in the model. On the other hand, the peak location derived from the crescent may not be a good proxy to determine the inflow longitude because it is highly modulated by short-time (few months) variations in the ionization losses. These lead to a corrugated crescent structure and may shift the fitted position of the crescent peak used to determine the inflow direction by up to 10°, with the strongest effects for the species that are heavily affected by ionization, i.e., O and Ne. These findings are in a qualitative agreement with results of in-situ PUI measurements, which showed that the location of PUI maximum varies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SSRv..186..251N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014SSRv..186..251N">Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Norton, A. A.; Charbonneau, P.; Passos, D. 2014-12-01 Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in north-south hemispheric solar cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to observations. The observed limits on solar cycle amplitude and phase asymmetry show that hemispheric sunspot area production is no more than 20 % asymmetric for cycles 17-23 and that phase lags do not exceed 20 % (or two years) of the total cycle period, as determined from Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot data. Several independent studies have found a long-term trend in phase values as one hemisphere leads the other for, on average, four cycles. Such persistence in phase is not indicative of a stochastic phenomenon. We compare these observational findings to the magnetic cycle found in a numerical simulation of solar convection recently produced with the EULAG-MHD model. This long "millennium simulation" spans more than 1600 years and generated 40 regular, sunspot-like cycles. While the simulated cycle length is too long (˜40 yrs) and the toroidal bands remain at too high of latitudes (>30°), some solar-like aspects of hemispheric asymmetry are reproduced. The model is successful at reproducing the synchrony of polarity inversions and onset of cycle as the simulated phase lags do not exceed 20 % of the cycle period. The simulated amplitude variations between the north and south hemispheres are larger than those observed in the Sun, some up to 40 %. An interesting note is that the simulations also show that one hemisphere can persistently lead the other for several successive cycles, placing an upper bound on the efficiency of transequatorial magnetic coupling mechanisms. These include magnetic diffusion, cross-equatorial mixing within latitudinally-elongated convective rolls (a.k.a. "banana cells") and transequatorial meridional flow cells. One or more of these processes may lead to magnetic flux cancellation whereby the oppositely directed fields come in close proximity and cancel each other across the magnetic equator late in the solar cycle. We discuss the discrepancies between model and observations and the constraints they pose on possible mechanisms of hemispheric coupling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.1410B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010cosp...38.1410B">Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of these processes in driving observed variations in dayside exospheric temperatures. Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) simulations and resulting exo-spheric temperatures will be presented and compared with assimilated temperatures collected from all these available measurements over the solar cycle. It is important to match measure-ments at dayside local times and latitudes for specific seasons with corresponding MTGCM simulated outputs. Calculated local heat budgets and their variations illustrate the changes required to reproduce solar cycle variations in exospheric temperatures. The ability to success-fully predict solar cycle responses of the Martian upper atmosphere is important for simulations of present-day Mars volatile escape rates. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930041918&hterms=posttest&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dposttest','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930041918&hterms=posttest&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dposttest">Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar 1992-01-01 The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA54A..01G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMSA54A..01G">Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gray, L. J. 2016-12-01 The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22519989-ensemble-empirical-mode-decomposition-magnetic-field-sun-star','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22519989-ensemble-empirical-mode-decomposition-magnetic-field-sun-star"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N., E-mail: znqu@ynao.ac.cn The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) observed at the Wilcox Solar Observatory of Stanford University from 1975 to 2014, and then we analyze the periods of these IMFs as well as the relation of IMFs (SMMF) with some solar activity indices. The two special rotation cycles of 26.6 and 28.5 days should be derived from different magnetic flux elements in the SMMF. The rotation cycle of the weak magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 26.6 days, while the rotation cycle of themore » strong magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 28.5 days. The two rotation periods of the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field near the ecliptic plane are essentially related to weak and strong magnetic flux elements in the SMMF, respectively. The rotation cycle of weak magnetic flux in the SMMF did not vary over the last 40 years because the weak magnetic flux element derived from the weak magnetic activity on the full disk is not influenced by latitudinal migration. Neither the internal rotation of the Sun nor the solar magnetic activity on the disk (including the solar polar fields) causes the annual variation of SMMF. The variation of SMMF at timescales of a solar cycle is more related to weak magnetic activity on the full solar disk.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ApJ...700.1884P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ApJ...700.1884P">Solar Variability from 240 to 1750 nm in Terms of Faculae Brightening and Sunspot Darkening from SCIAMACHY</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. 2009-08-01 The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21313727-solar-variability-from-nm-terms-faculae-brightening-sunspot-darkening-from-sciamachy','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21313727-solar-variability-from-nm-terms-faculae-brightening-sunspot-darkening-from-sciamachy">SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. 2009-08-01 The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variationsmore » above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH31B2730P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH31B2730P">Solar Energetic Particle Composition over Two Solar Cycles as Observed by the Ulysses/HISCALE and ACE/EPAM Pulse Height Analyzers.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J. 2017-12-01 We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920049873&hterms=midi&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dmidi','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920049873&hterms=midi&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dmidi">Evolution and advection of solar mesogranulation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Muller, Richard; Auffret, Herve; Roudier, Thierry; Vigneau, Jean; Simon, George W.; Frank, Zoe; Shine, Richard A.; Title, Alan M. 1992-01-01 A three-hour sequence of observations at the Pic du Midi observatory has been obtained which shows the evolution of solar mesogranules from appearance to disappearance with unprecedented clarity. It is seen that the supergranules, which are known to advect the granules with their convective motion, also advect the mesogranules to their boundaries. This process controls the evolution and disappearance of mesogranules. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003IJTPE.123.1365O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003IJTPE.123.1365O">Reduction of Life Cycle CO2 Emission in Public Welfare Facilities Equipped with PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki The reduction effect of life cycle CO2 emission is examined in case of introducing a PV/solar heat/cogeneration system into public welfare facilities(hotel and hospital). Life cycle CO2 emission is calculated as the sum of that when operating and that when manufacturing equipments. The system is operated with the dynamic programming method, into which hourly data of electric and heat loads, solar insolation, and atmospheric temperature during a year are input. The proposed system is compared with a conventional system and a cogeneration system. The life cycle CO2 emission of the PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is lower than that of the conventional system by 20% in hotel and by 14% in hospital. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SpWea..15..589M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SpWea..15..589M">Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko 2017-04-01 Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913063H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913063H">Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš 2017-04-01 The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000000500&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000000500&hterms=solar+intensity+measurement&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dsolar%2Bintensity%2Bmeasurement">The Hadean, Through a Glass Telescopically: Observations of Young Solar Analogs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gaidos, E. J. 1998-01-01 Investigations into the Earth's surface environment during the Hadean eon (prior to 3.8 Ga) are hampered by the paucity of the geological and geochemical record and the relative inaccessibility of better-preserved surfaces with possibly similar early histories (i.e., Mars). One approach is to observe nearby, young solar-mass stars as analogs to the Hadean Sun and its environment. A catalog of 38 G and early K stars within 25 pc was constructed based on main-sequence status, bolometric luminosity, lack of known stellar companions within 800 AU, and coronal X-ray luminosities commensurate with the higher activity of solar-mass stars <0.8 b.y. old. Spectroscopic data support the assignment of ages of 0.2 - 0.8 Ga for most of these stars. Observations of these objects will provide insight into external forces that influenced Hadean atmosphere, ocean, and surface evolution (and potential ecosystems), including solar luminosity evolution, the flux and spectrum of solar ultraviolet radiation, the intensity of the solar wind, and the intensity and duration of a late period of heavy bombardment. The standard model of solar evolution predicts a luminosity of 0.75 solar luminosity at the end of the Hadean, implying a terrestrial surface temperature inconsistent with the presence of liquid water and motivating atmospheric greenhouse models. An alternative model fo solar evolution that invokes mass loss, constructed to explain solar Li depletion, attenuates or reverses this luminosity evolution of the atmospheres of Earth and the other terrestrial planets. This model can be tested by Li abundance measurements. The continuum emission from stellar wind plasma during significant mass loss may be detectable at millimeter and radio wavelengths. The Earth (and Moon) experienced a period of intense bombardment prior to 3.8 Ga, long after accretion was completed in the inner solar system and possibly associated with the clearing of residual planetesimals in the outer solar system. Such a bombardment may have contributed volatiles and organics to the surface, but also have limited the appearacne of a biosphere. While planetary systems around solar systems cannot be detected directly with present technology, the thermal emission from the interplanetary dust generated during a similar heavy bombardment period can be. Midinfrared observations of a large uniform sample of solar analogs are used to constrain the frequency and duration of such events. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23110605W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AAS...23110605W">Circumgalactic Matter Matters in Galaxy Evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Werk, Jessica 2018-01-01 The circumgalactic medium (CGM; non-ISM gas within a galaxy virial radius) regulates the gas flows that shape the assembly and evolution of galaxies. Owing to the vastly improved capabilities in space-based UV spectroscopy with the installation of HST/COS, observations and simulations of the CGM have emerged as the new frontier of galaxy evolution studies. In the last decade, we have learned that the CGM of Milky Way mass galaxies likely contains enough material to harbor most of the metals lost in galaxy winds and to sustain star-formation for billions of years. Remarkably, this implies that most of the heavy elements on earth cycled back and forth multiple times through the Milky Way’s own CGM before the formation of the solar system. In this talk, I will describe constraints we have placed on the origin and fate of this material by studying the gas kinematics, metallicity and ionization state. I will conclude by posing several unanswered questions about the CGM that will be addressed with future survey data and hydrodynamic simulations in a cosmological context. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.tmp.1552M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MNRAS.tmp.1552M">Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E. 2018-06-01 We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011349','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011349">Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander 2013-01-01 More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GGG....17.1885F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GGG....17.1885F">Whole planet coupling between climate, mantle, and core: Implications for rocky planet evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Foley, Bradford J.; Driscoll, Peter E. 2016-05-01 Earth's climate, mantle, and core interact over geologic time scales. Climate influences whether plate tectonics can take place on a planet, with cool climates being favorable for plate tectonics because they enhance stresses in the lithosphere, suppress plate boundary annealing, and promote hydration and weakening of the lithosphere. Plate tectonics plays a vital role in the long-term carbon cycle, which helps to maintain a temperate climate. Plate tectonics provides long-term cooling of the core, which is vital for generating a magnetic field, and the magnetic field is capable of shielding atmospheric volatiles from the solar wind. Coupling between climate, mantle, and core can potentially explain the divergent evolution of Earth and Venus. As Venus lies too close to the sun for liquid water to exist, there is no long-term carbon cycle and thus an extremely hot climate. Therefore, plate tectonics cannot operate and a long-lived core dynamo cannot be sustained due to insufficient core cooling. On planets within the habitable zone where liquid water is possible, a wide range of evolutionary scenarios can take place depending on initial atmospheric composition, bulk volatile content, or the timing of when plate tectonics initiates, among other factors. Many of these evolutionary trajectories would render the planet uninhabitable. However, there is still significant uncertainty over the nature of the coupling between climate, mantle, and core. Future work is needed to constrain potential evolutionary scenarios and the likelihood of an Earth-like evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......150W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......150W">Aerosol physicochemical properties in relation to meteorology: Case studies in urban, marine, and arid settings</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wonaschuetz, Anna Atmospheric aerosols are a highly relevant component of the climate system affecting atmospheric radiative transfer and the hydrological cycle. As opposed to other key atmospheric constituents with climatic relevance, atmospheric aerosol particles are highly heterogeneous in time and space with respect to their size, concentration, chemical composition and physical properties. Many aspects of their life cycle are not understood, making them difficult to represent in climate models and hard to control as a pollutant. Aerosol-cloud interactions in particular are infamous as a major source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Field measurements are an important source of information for the modeling community and can lead to a better understanding of chemical and microphysical processes. In this study, field data from urban, marine, and arid settings are analyzed and the impact of meteorological conditions on the evolution of aerosol particles while in the atmosphere is investigated. Particular attention is given to organic aerosols, which are a poorly understood component of atmospheric aerosols. Local wind characteristics, solar radiation, relative humidity and the presence or absence of clouds and fog are found to be crucial factors in the transport and chemical evolution of aerosol particles. Organic aerosols in particular are found to be heavily impacted by processes in the liquid phase (cloud droplets and aerosol water). The reported measurements serve to improve the process-level understanding of aerosol evolution in different environments and to inform the modeling community by providing realistic values for input parameters and validation of model calculations. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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Sample records for solar cycle evolution