GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

2015-09-15

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, Ching-Cheh

2007-01-01

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

The Sun and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

Solar Irradiance from 165 to 400 nm in 2008 and UV Variations in Three Spectral Bands During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, M.; Bolsée, D.; Damé, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Pereira, N.; Irbah, A.; Bekki, S.; Cessateur, G.; Foujols, T.; Thiéblemont, R.

2016-12-01

Accurate measurements of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and its temporal variations are of primary interest to better understand solar mechanisms, and the links between solar variability and Earth's atmosphere and climate. The SOLar SPECtrum (SOLSPEC) instrument of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has been built to carry out SSI measurements from 165 to 3088 nm. We focus here on the ultraviolet (UV) part of the measured solar spectrum (wavelengths less than 400 nm) because the UV part is potentially important for understanding the solar forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. We present here SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV data obtained since 2008, and their variations in three spectral bands during Solar Cycle 24. They are compared with previously reported UV measurements and model reconstructions, and differences are discussed.

A stochastically forced time delay solar dynamo model: Self-consistent recovery from a maunder-like grand minimum necessitates a mean-field alpha effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu; Passos, Dário, E-mail: s.hazra@iiserkol.ac.in, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: dnandi@iiserkol.ac.in

Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspotmore » cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.« less

Impacts of Wind and Solar on Fossil-Fueled Generators: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Kumar, N.

2012-08-01

High penetrations of wind and solar power will impact the operations of the remaining generators on the power system. Regional integration studies have shown that wind and solar may cause fossil-fueled generators to cycle on and off and ramp down to part load more frequently and potentially more rapidly. Increased cycling, deeper load following, and rapid ramping may result in wear-and-tear impacts on fossil-fueled generators that lead to increased capital and maintenance costs, increased equivalent forced outage rates, and degraded performance over time. Heat rates and emissions from fossil-fueled generators may be higher during cycling and ramping than during steady-statemore » operation. Many wind and solar integration studies have not taken these increased cost and emissions impacts into account because data have not been available. This analysis considers the cost and emissions impacts of cycling and ramping of fossil-fueled generation to refine assessments of wind and solar impacts on the power system.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicatemore » technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.« less

Solar signals detected within neutral atmospheric and ionospheric parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koucka Knizova, Petra; Georgieva, Katya; Mosna, Zbysek; Kozubek, Michal; Kouba, Daniel; Kirov, Boian; Potuzníkova, Katerina; Boska, Josef

2018-06-01

We have analyzed time series of solar data together with the atmospheric and ionospheric measurements for solar cycles 19 till 23 according to particular data availability. For the analyses we have used long term data with 1-day sampling. By mean of Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) we have found common spectral domains within solar and atmospheric and ionospheric time series. Further we have identified terms when particular pairs of signals show high coherence applying Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC). Despite wide oscillation ranges detected in particular time series CWT spectra we found only limited domains with high coherence by mean of WTC. Wavelet Transform Coherence reveals significant high power domains with stable phase difference for periods 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3-4 years between pairs of solar data and atmospheric and ionospheric data. The occurence of the detected domains vary significantly during particular solar cycle (SC) and from cycle to the following one. It indicates the changing solar forcing and/or atmospheric sensitivity with time.

Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands.

PubMed

Hodell, D A; Brenner, M; Curtis, J H; Guilderson, T

2001-05-18

We analyzed lake-sediment cores from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, to reconstruct the climate history of the region over the past 2600 years. Time series analysis of sediment proxies, which are sensitive to the changing ratio of evaporation to precipitation (oxygen isotopes and gypsum precipitation), reveal a recurrent pattern of drought with a dominant periodicity of 208 years. This cycle is similar to the documented 206-year period in records of cosmogenic nuclide production (carbon-14 and beryllium-10) that is thought to reflect variations in solar activity. We conclude that a significant component of century-scale variability in Yucatan droughts is explained by solar forcing. Furthermore, some of the maxima in the 208-year drought cycle correspond with discontinuities in Maya cultural evolution, suggesting that the Maya were affected by these bicentennial oscillations in precipitation.

Climate variability related to the 11 year solar cycle as represented in different spectral solar irradiance reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Misios, Stergios; Matthes, Katja; Langematz, Ulrike; Tourpali, Kleareti

2016-04-01

Advanced spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstructions differ significantly from each other in terms of the mean solar spectrum, that is the spectral distribution of energy, and solar cycle variability. Largest uncertainties - relative to mean irradiance - are found for the ultraviolet range of the spectrum, a spectral region highly important for radiative heating and chemistry in the stratosphere and troposphere. This study systematically analyzes the effects of employing different SSI reconstructions in long-term (40 years) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations to estimate related uncertainties of the atmospheric response. These analyses are highly relevant for the next round of CCM studies as well as climate models within the CMIP6 exercise. The simulations are conducted by means of two state-of-the-art CCMs - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - run in "atmosphere-only"-mode. These models are quite different with respect to the complexity of the implemented radiation and chemistry schemes. CESM1(WACCM) features a chemistry module with considerably higher spectral resolution of the photolysis scheme while EMAC employs a radiation code with notably higher spectral resolution. For all simulations, concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, as well as observed sea surface temperatures (SST) are set to average conditions representative for the year 2000 (for SSTs: mean of decade centered over year 2000) to exclude anthropogenic influences and differences due to variable SST forcing. Only the SSI forcing differs for the various simulations. Four different forcing datasets are used: NRLSSI1 (used as a reference in all previous climate modeling intercomparisons, i.e. CMIP5, CCMVal, CCMI), NRLSSI2, SATIRE-S, and the SSI forcing dataset recommended for the CMIP6 exercise. For each dataset, a solar maximum and minimum timeslice is integrated, respectively. The results of these simulations - eight in total - are compared to each other with respect to their shortwave heating rate differences (additionally collated with line-by-line calculations using libradtran), differences in the photolysis rates, as well as atmospheric circulation features (temperature, zonal wind, geopotential height, etc.). It is shown that atmospheric responses to the different SSI datasets differ significantly from each other. This is a result from direct radiative effects as well as indirect effects induced by ozone feedbacks. Differences originating from using different SSI datasets for the same level of solar activity are in the same order of magnitude as those associated with the 11 year solar cycle within a specific dataset. However, the climate signals related to the solar cycle are quite comparable across datasets.

Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi

2000-11-01

We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent.

Is there a stratospheric pacemaker controlling the daily cycle of tropical rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakazaki, T.; Hamilton, K.; Zhang, C.; Wang, Y.

2017-02-01

Rainfall in the tropics exhibits a large, 12 h Sun-synchronous variation with coherent phase around the globe. A long-standing, but unproved, hypothesis for this phenomenon is excitation by the prominent 12 h atmospheric tide, which itself is significantly forced remotely by solar heating of the stratospheric ozone layer. We investigated the relative roles of large-scale tidal forcing and more local effects in accounting for the 12 h variation of tropical rainfall. A model of the atmosphere run with the diurnal cycle of solar heating artificially suppressed below the stratosphere still simulated a strong coherent 12 h rainfall variation ( 50% of control run), demonstrating that stratospherically forced atmospheric tide propagates downward to the troposphere and contributes to the organization of large-scale convection. The results have implications for theories of excitation of tropical atmospheric waves by moist convection, for the evaluation of climate models, and for explaining the recently discovered lunar tidal rainfall cycle.

Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

2013-01-01

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

Terminator 2020: Get Ready for the "Event" of The Next Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J.; Fan, Y.; Rempel, M.; Dikpati, M.

2017-12-01

The abrupt end of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 at the Sun's equator are observed with instruments from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These events are remarkable in that they rapidly trigger the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next solar cycle at mid-latitudes. The triggered onset of new cycle flux emergence leads to blossoming of the new cycle shortly thereafter. Using small-scale tracers of magnetic solar activity we examine the timing of the cycle ``termination points'' in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is less than one solar rotation, and possibly as little as a eight days. This very short transition time implies that the mean magnetic field present in the Sun's convection zone is approximately 80 kG. This value may be considerably larger than conventional explorations estimate and therefore, have a significant dynamical impact on the physical appearance of solar activity, and considerably impacting our ability to perform first-principles numerical simulations of the same. Should solar cycle 24 [and 25] continue in their progression we anticipate that a termination event of this type should occur in the 2020 timeframe. PSP will have a front row seat to observe this systemic flip in solar magnetism and the induced changes in our star's radiative and partiuculate output. Such observations may prove to be critical in assessing the Sun's ability to force short term evolution in the Earth's atmosphere.

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Drob, D. P.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase. These amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. The SCAE in this case extends to mid-latitudes.

The Measurement of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability at 782 nm during the Solar Cycle 24 using the SES on-board PICARD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain; Irbah, Abdanour; Bekki, Slimane

2016-04-01

A Sun Ecartometry Sensor (SES) was developed to provide the stringent pointing requirements of the PICARD satellite. The SES sensor produced an image of the Sun at 782+/-5 nm. From the SES data, we obtained a new time series of the solar spectral irradiance at 782nm from 2010 to 2014. SES observations provided a qualitatively consistent evolution of the solar spectral irradiance variability at 782 nm during the solar cycle 24. Comparisons will be made with Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) semi-empirical model and with the Spectral Irradiance Monitor instrument (SIM) on-board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment satellite (SORCE). These data will help to improve the representation of the solar forcing in the IPSL Global Circulation Model.

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

The 11 Year Solar Cycle Response of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Observed by GPS Radio Occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, King-Fai; Lin, Li-Ching; Bui, Xuan-Hien; Liang, Mao-Chang

2018-01-01

We have retrieved the latitudinal and vertical structures of the 11 year solar cycle modulation on ionospheric electron density using 14 years of satellite-based radio occultation measurements utilizing the Global Positioning System. The densities at the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the subtropics near 300 km in 2003 and 2014 (high solar activity with solar 10.7 cm flux, F10.7 ≈ 140 solar flux unit (sfu)) were 3 times higher than that in 2009 (low solar activity F10.7 ≈ 70 sfu). The higher density is attributed to the elevated solar extreme ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity during high solar activity periods. The location of the EIA crests moved 50 km upward and 10° poleward, because of the enhanced E × B force. The EIA in the northern hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the southern hemisphere. This interhemispheric asymmetry is consistent with the effect of enhanced transequatorial neutral wind. The above observations were reproduced qualitatively by the two benchmark runs of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. In addition, we have studied the impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the 27 day solar cycle response of the ionospheric electron density. Beside the expected modulation on the amplitude of the 27 day solar variation due to the 11 year solar cycle, we find that the altitude of the maximal 27 day solar response is unexpectedly 50 km higher than that of the 11 year solar response. This is the first time that a vertical dependence of the solar responses on different time scales is reported.

A process-level attribution of the annual cycle of surface temperature over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yana; Yang, Song; Deng, Yi; Hu, Xiaoming; Cai, Ming

2017-12-01

The annual cycle of the surface temperature over the Maritime Continent (MC) is characterized by two periods of rapid warming in March-April and September-October, respectively, and a period of rapid cooling in June-July. Based upon an analysis of energy balance within individual atmosphere-surface columns, the seasonal variations of surface temperature in the MC are partitioned into partial temperature changes associated with various radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) processes. The seasonal variations in direct solar forcing and surface latent heat flux show the largest positive contributions to the annual cycle of MC surface temperature while the changes in oceanic dynamics (including ocean heat content change) work against the temperature changes related to the annual cycle. The rapid warming in March-April is mainly a result of the changes in atmospheric quick processes and ocean-atmosphere coupling such as water vapor, surface latent heat flux, clouds, and atmospheric dynamics while the contributions from direct solar forcing and oceanic dynamics are negative. This feature is in contrast to that associated with the warming in September-October, which is driven mainly by the changes in solar forcing with a certain amount of contributions from water vapor and latent heat flux change. More contribution from atmospheric quick processes and ocean-atmosphere coupling in March-April coincides with the sudden northward movement of deep convection belt, while less contribution from these quick processes and coupling is accompanied with the convection belt slowly moving southward. The main contributors to the rapid cooling in June-July are the same as those to the rapid warming in March-April, and the cooling is also negatively contributed by direct solar forcing and oceanic dynamics. The changes in water vapor in all three periods contribute positively to the change in total temperature and they are associated with the change in the location of the center of large-scale moisture convergence during the onset and demise stages of the East Asian summer monsoon.

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Periodic Analysis Between Solar Variability and the Earth's Temperature From Centuries to Ten Thousand Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Feng, X. S.

2014-12-01

The global warming is one of the hottest topics for both scientists and the public at present. Strong evidences have shown that the global warming is related to the man-made increasing greenhouse gas levels. Besides the artificial factors, natural forces also contribute to the Earth's climate change. Among them, solar activity is an important ingredient of the natural driving forces of the Earth's climate. In this study, two data sets are adopted to investigate the periodicities of both solar activity and the variation of the Earth temperature as well as their correlations based on the wavelet analysis and cross correlation method. The first one is a directly measured data set covering centuries, while the second one is the reconstructed data during the past 11,000 years. The obtained results demonstrate that solar activity and the Earth's temperature have significant resonance cycles, and the Earth's temperature has periodic variations similar to those of solar activity. For centuries, these common periodicities include the 22-year cycle and the 50-year cycle. While for 11,000 years, they are the 200-year, 500-year, 1000-year, and 2000-year cycles. Correlation analysis reveals that the correlations between solar variability and the Earth's temperature are statistically significant. The correlation coefficient (C.C.) between the 11-year running averaged Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and the ocean temperature is 0.88 during the past 133 years of global warming. While for 11,000 years, the C.C. between the 500-year running averages of sunspot number (SSN) and the Earth temperature (r=0.51, p=1%) is stronger than that between the temperature and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (r=0.35, p=10%). All these support that solar activity should have non-ignorable effects on the Earth's climate change, especially before the modern industrial time.

A Comparative Examination of Plasmoid Structure and Dynamics at Mercury, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slavin, James A.

2010-01-01

The circulation of plasma and magnetic flux within planetary magnetospheres is governed by the solar wind-driven Dungey and planetary rotation-driven cycles. The Dungey cycle is responsible for all circulation at Mercury and Earth. Jupiter and Saturn's magnetospheres are dominated by the Vasyliunas cycle, but there is evidence for a small Dungey cycle contribution driven by the solar wind. Despite these fundamental differences, all well-observed magnetospheres eject relatively large parcels of the hot plasma, termed plasmoids, down their tails at high speeds. Plasmoids escape from the restraining force of the planetary magnetic field through reconnection in the equatorial current sheet separating the northern and southern hemispheres of the magnetosphere. The reconnection process gives the magnetic field threading plasmoids a helical or flux rope-type topology. In the Dungey cycle reconnection also provides the primary tailward force that accelerates plasmoids to high speeds as they move down the tail. We compare the available observations of plasmoids at Mercury, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn for the purpose of determining the relative role of plasmoids and the reconnection process in the dynamics these planetary magnetic tails.

Lunar fingerprints in the modulated incoming solar radiation: In situ insolation and latitudinal insolation gradients as two important interpretative metrics for paleoclimatic data records and theoretical climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo; Valentini, José Ernesto; Quaranta, Nancy Esther; Soon, Willie W.-H.

2018-01-01

We present a new set of solar radiation forcing that now incorporated not only the gravitational perturbation of the Sun-Earth-Moon geometrical orbits but also the intrinsic solar magnetic modulation of the total solar irradiance (TSI). This new dataset, covering the past 2000 years as well as a forward projection for about 100 years based on recent result by Velasco-Herrera et al. (2015), should provide a realistic basis to examine and evaluate the role of external solar forcing on Earth climate on decadal, multidecadal to multicentennial timescales. A second goal of this paper is to propose both in situ insolation forcing variable and the latitudinal insolation gradients (LIG) as two key metrics that are subjected to a deterministic modulation by lunar nodal cycle which are often confused with tidal forcing impacts as assumed and interpreted in previous studies of instrumental and paleoclimatic records. Our new results and datasets are made publicly available for all at PANGAEA site.

Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-28

www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 325 28 AUGUST 2009 1117 REPORTS The role of theQuasi-biennial Oscillation ( QBO ) in the response to solar forcing has been noted...in earlier studies (3). A set of experiments with the two WACCM model versions with a prescribed QBO has been carried out, and results from those...those presented here without the QBO , but the prescribed QBO shows improvements in the strato- spheric response compared to observations. Though the

Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.

2016-12-01

The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee

2000-01-01

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

A novel experimental mechanics method for measuring the light pressure acting on a solar sail membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Aiming; Jiang, Li; Dowell, Earl H.; Qin, Zhixuan

2017-02-01

Solar sail is a high potential `sailing craft' for interstellar exploration. The area of the first flight solar sail demonstrator named "IKAROS" is 200 square meters. Future interplanetary missions will require solar sails at least on the order of 10000 square meters (or larger). Due to the limitation of ground facilities, the size of experimental sample should not be large. Furthermore the ground experiments have to be conducted in gravitational field, so the gravity effect must be considered in a ground test. To obtain insight into the solar sail membrane dynamics, a key membrane flutter (or limit cycle oscillations) experiment with light forces acting on it must be done. But one big challenge is calibrating such a tiny light force by as a function of the input power. In this paper, a gravity-based measuring method for light pressure acting on membrane is presented. To explain the experimental principle, an ideal example of a laser beam with expanders and a metal film is studied. Based on calculations, this experimental mechanics method for calibrating light pressure with an accuracy of 0.01 micro-Newton may be realized by making the light force balance the gravity force on the metal films. This gravity-based measuring method could not only be applied to study the dynamics characteristics of solar sail membrane structure with different light forces, but could also be used to determine more accurate light forces/loads acting on solar sail films and hence to enhance the determination of the mechanical properties of the solar sail membrane structure.

High-resolution analysis of upper Miocene lake deposits: Evidence for the influence of Gleissberg-band solar forcing

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Mandic, Oleg

2013-01-01

A high-resolution multi-proxy analysis was conducted on a 1.5-m-long core of Tortonian age (~ 10.5 Ma; Late Miocene) from Austria (Europe). The lake sediments were studied with a 1-cm resolution to detect all small-scale variations based on palynomorphs (pollen and dinoflagellate cysts), ostracod abundance, geochemistry (carbon and sulfur) and geophysics (magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radiation). Based on an already established age model for a longer interval of the same core, this sequence can be limited to approx. two millennia of Late Miocene time with a resolution of ~ 13.7 years per sample. The previous study documented the presence of solar forcing, which was verified within various proxies on this 1.5-m core by a combination of REDFIT spectra and Gaussian filters. Significant repetitive signals ranged in two discrete intervals corresponding roughly to 55–82 and 110–123 years, fitting well within the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle ranges. Based on these results, the environmental changes along the 2000-year Late Miocene sequence are discussed. No major ecological turnovers are expected in this very short interval. Nonetheless, even within this brief time span, dinoflagellates document rapid changes between oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions, which are frequently coupled with lake stratification and dysoxic bottom waters. These phases prevented ostracods and molluscs from settling and promoted the activity of sulfur bacteria. The pollen record indicates rather stable wetland vegetation with a forested hinterland. Shifts in the pollen spectra can be mainly attributed to variations in transport mechanisms. These are represented by a few phases of fluvial input but mainly by changes in wind intensity and probably also wind direction. Such influence is most likely caused by solar cycles, leading to a change in source area for the input into the lake. Furthermore, these solar-induced variations seem to be modulated by longer solar cycles. The filtered data display comparable patterns and modulations, which seem to be forced by the 1000-year and 1500-year cycles. The 1000-year cycle modulated especially the lake surface proxies, whereas the 1500-year cycle is mainly reflected in hinterland proxies, indicating strong influence on transport mechanisms. PMID:23407808

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

PubMed

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J; Sander, Stanley P; Yung, Yuk L; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Santee, Michelle L; Harder, Jerald W; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P

2013-02-05

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Yung, Yuk L.; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Harder, Jerald W.; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P.

2013-01-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O3) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O3 chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Aura satellite suggest an ∼7–10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6–7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O3 SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O3 further. PMID:23341617

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: sudip@iiap.res.in

We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca ii K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also withmore » total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.« less

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-07-01

We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca II K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also with total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.

The pulse of a montane ecosystem: coupled diurnal cycles in solar flux, snowmelt, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow at Sagehen Creek (Sierra Nevada, California)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James

2016-04-01

Forested catchments in the subalpine snow zone provide interesting opportunities to study the interplay between energy and water fluxes under seasonally variable degrees of forcing by transpiration and snowmelt. In such catchments, diurnal cycles in solar flux drive snowmelt and evapotranspiration, which in turn lead to diurnal cycles (with opposing phases) in groundwater levels. These in turn are linked to diurnal cycles in stream stage and discharge, which potentially provide a spatially integrated measure of snowmelt and evapotranspiration rates in the surrounding landscape. Here I analyze ecohydrological controls on diurnal stream and groundwater fluctuations induced by snowmelt and evapotranspiration (ET) at Sagehen Creek, in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. There is a clear 6-hour lag between radiation forcing and the stream or groundwater response. This is not a travel-time delay, but instead a 90-degree dynamical phase lag arising from the integro-differential relationship between groundwater storage and recharge, ET, and streamflow. The time derivative of groundwater levels is strongly positively correlated with solar flux during snowmelt periods, reflecting snowmelt recharge to the riparian aquifer during daytime. Conversely, this derivative is strongly negatively correlated with solar flux during snow-free summer months, reflecting transpiration withdrawals from the riparian aquifer. As the snow cover disappears, the correlation between the solar flux and the time derivative of groundwater levels abruptly shifts from positive (snowmelt dominance) to negative (ET dominance). During this transition, the groundwater cycles briefly vanish when the opposing forcings (snowmelt and ET) are of equal magnitude, and thus cancel each other out. Stream stage fluctuations integrate these relationships over the altitude range of the catchment. Rates of rise and fall in stream stage are positively correlated with solar flux when the whole catchment is snow-covered, and negatively correlated with solar flux when the whole catchment is snow-free. The correlation with solar flux gradually shifts from positive to negative over several weeks, as the snow-covered area contracts higher and higher in the basin. The dates at which the snowmelt and ET signals in the stream cancel each other out occur systematically later at higher altitudes along the stream's longitudinal profile. At these particular dates, it may be possible to infer spatially averaged rates of ET (which are difficult to measure accurately) from spatially averaged rates of snowmelt (which can be estimated somewhat more straightforwardly from energy balance). These observations illustrate how groundwater and stream stage fluctuations are mirrors of the landscape, reflecting the energetics of snowmelt and evapotranspiration at the plot and catchment scale.

Interactions of Dust Grains with Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Cycle Variations of the F-Coronal Brightness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragot, B. R.; Kahler, S. W.

2003-01-01

The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.

Solar Radio Burst Statistics and Implications for Space Weather Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giersch, O. D.; Kennewell, J.; Lynch, M.

2017-11-01

Solar radio bursts have the potential to affect space and terrestrial navigation, communication, and other technical systems that are sometimes overlooked. However, over the last decade a series of extreme L band solar radio bursts in December 2006 have renewed interest in these effects. In this paper we point out significant deficiencies in the solar radio data archives of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that are used by most researchers in analyzing and producing statistics on solar radio burst phenomena. In particular, we examine the records submitted by the United States Air Force (USAF) Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) and its predecessors from the period 1966 to 2010. Besides identifying substantial missing burst records we show that different observatories can have statistically different burst distributions, particularly at 245 MHz. We also point out that different solar cycles may show statistically different distributions and that it is a mistake to assume that the Sun shows similar behavior in different sunspot cycles. Large solar radio bursts are not confined to the period around sunspot maximum, and prediction of such events that utilize historical data will invariably be an underestimate due to archive data deficiencies. It is important that researchers and forecasters use historical occurrence frequency with caution in attempting to predict future cycles.

Novel Stimulated Electromagnetic Emission Observations with Artificial Airglow Using RF Excitation with HAARP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briczinski, S. J., Jr.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Siefring, C. L.; Michell, R.; Hampton, D. L.; Watkins, B. J.; Bristow, W. A.

2014-12-01

Neutral hydrogen plays an important role in determining the state of the plasmasphere and its response to forcing from geomagnetic storms. Hydrogen's solar cycle variation is counterintuitive: there is more hydrogen at solar minimum at 300 km that there is at solar maximum. Similarly there is more hydrogen in winter than in summer and hydrogen density maximizes in the morning. In this presentation we describe these variations and consider some possible causes for them.

Effects of the diurnal cycle in solar radiation on the tropical Indian Ocean mixed layer variability during wintertime Madden-Julian Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuanlong; Han, Weiqing; Shinoda, Toshiaki; Wang, Chunzai; Lien, Ren-Chieh; Moum, James N.; Wang, Jih-Wang

2013-10-01

The effects of solar radiation diurnal cycle on intraseasonal mixed layer variability in the tropical Indian Ocean during boreal wintertime Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model. Two parallel experiments, the main run and the experimental run, are performed for the period of 2005-2011 with daily atmospheric forcing except that an idealized hourly shortwave radiation diurnal cycle is included in the main run. The results show that the diurnal cycle of solar radiation generally warms the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) north of 10°S, particularly during the calm phase of the MJO when sea surface wind is weak, mixed layer is thin, and the SST diurnal cycle amplitude (dSST) is large. The diurnal cycle enhances the MJO-forced intraseasonal SST variability by about 20% in key regions like the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 55°-70°E, 12°-4°S) and the central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO; 65°-95°E, 3°S-3°N) primarily through nonlinear rectification. The model also well reproduced the upper-ocean variations monitored by the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign between September-November 2011. During this period, dSST reaches 0.7°C in the CEIO region, and intraseasonal SST variability is significantly amplified. In the SCTR region where mean easterly winds are strong during this period, diurnal SST variation and its impact on intraseasonal ocean variability are much weaker. In both regions, the diurnal cycle also has a large impact on the upward surface turbulent heat flux QT and induces diurnal variation of QT with a peak-to-peak difference of O(10 W m-2).

Martian Atmospheric and Ionospheric plasma Escape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundin, Rickard

2016-04-01

Solar forcing is responsible for the heating, ionization, photochemistry, and erosion processes in the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the terrestrial planets. Of the four terrestrial planets, the Earth is the only one with a fully developed biosphere, while our kin Venus and Mars have evolved into arid inhabitable planets. As for Mars, there are ample evidences for an early Noachian, water rich period on Mars. The question is, what made Mars evolve so differently compared to the Earth? Various hydrosphere and atmospheric evolution scenarios for Mars have been forwarded based on surface morphology, chemical composition, simulations, semi-empiric (in-situ data) models, and the long-term evolution of the Sun. Progress has been made, but the case is still open regarding the changes that led to the present arid surface and tenuous atmosphere at Mars. This presentation addresses the long-term variability of the Sun, the solar forcing impact on the Martian atmosphere, and its interaction with the space environment - an electromagnetic wave and particle interaction with the upper atmosphere that has implications for its photochemistry, composition, and energization that governs thermal and non-thermal escape. Non-thermal escape implies an electromagnetic upward energization of planetary ions and molecules to velocities above escape velocity, a process governed by a combination of solar EUV radiation (ionization), and energy and momentum transfer by the solar wind. The ion escape issue dates back to the early Soviet and US-missions to Mars, but the first more accurate estimates of escape rates came with the Phobos-2 mission in 1989. Better-quality ion composition measurement results of atmospheric/ionospheric ion escape from Mars, obtained from ESA Mars Express (MEX) instruments, have improved our understanding of the ion escape mechanism. With the NASA MAVEN spacecraft orbiting Mars since Sept. 2014, dual in-situ measurement with plasma instruments are now carried out in the Martian planetary realm. Of particular interest from a planetary atmospheric escape point of view is the long-term implications of solar forcing. From ASPERA-data on MEX it has been possible to cover the transition from cycle 23 up to the cycle 24 maximum, data displaying clear solar cycle dependence. The planetary ion escape rate increased from solar minimum to solar maximum by a factor of 10. From a regression analysis using ion escape fluxes and solar forcing proxies, a "back-casting" tool is developed [1], enabling determination of the planetary ion escape back in time based on long-term solar forcing proxies (F10.7, sunspot number). The tool may be applied to other long-term solar proxies, such as the radiogenic isotopes in the Earth's atmosphere, 10Be and 14C. The cosmic-ray production of these long-lifetime (>10000 year) isotopes is modulated by the solar-heliospheric magnetic flux, i.e. an indirect measure of solar magnetic activity. Beyond that there is so far only one additional rough "back-casting" tool, the "Sun-in-time", a method whereby the age of, EUV/UV radiation, and mass-loss of other sun-like stars are determined [2, 3]. [1] Lundin et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 23, pp. 6028-6032, 2013. [2] Wood et al., ApJ, 574:412-425, 2002. [3] Ribas et al., ApJ., 622:680-694, 2005

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

Can we identify effects from the 11 year solar cycle in AIM PMC Data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siskind, D. E.; Stevens, M. H.; Hervig, M. E.; Randall, C. E.

2012-12-01

One of the primary objectives of the AIM extended mission is to understand the solar cycle variation of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs). Complicating this problem have been two unexpected phenomena. First, it has become clear that PMCs vary greatly in response to meteorological variability propagating upwards from the stratosphere or teleconnecting from the opposite (winter) hemisphere. Second, the first 4 years of the AIM mission (2007-2010) corresponded to historically very low solar activity. Recently, solar activity has increased modestly; however, the problem remains of pulling out a weak signal (solar) against a noisy background (dynamics). There are two ways to reduce the geophysical noise. First, we note that due to the dynamically active Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, the effects of meteorological teleconnections are greatest on Southern Hemisphere PMCs. By focusing on Northern Hemisphere PMCs, we get less dynamical variability. Second, it has been shown that by correlating PMC properties with stratospheric winter temperatures, a functional relationship between PMCs and dynamics can be established. In principle, deviations from this functional relationship could be interpreted as due to external forcing, i.e. from solar variability. Expectations are that clouds should decrease for higher levels of solar forcing. Surprisingly however, in 2011, the first year with higher solar activity, the SOFIE instrument on AIM saw more clouds in July than ever. We explore possible reasons for this anomaly, including the possibility of an enhancement in H2O from the launch of STS135 on July 8th. To date, 2012 also shows moderately higher solar activity, but without the contaminating effects of shuttle exhaust. We will evaluate whether PMCs were affected by solar activity in 2012. Acknowledgements: This work was sponsored by the NASA AIM Small Explorer program.

Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Hansen, James E.; Sun, Shan

2006-12-01

Holocene climate proxies suggest substantial correlations between tropical meteorology and solar variations, but these have thus far not been explained. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-composition model forced by sustained multi-decadal irradiance increases, we show that greater tropical temperatures alter the hydrologic cycle, enhancing the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropics while drying the subtropical subsidence regions. The shift is enhanced by tropopause region ozone increases, and the model captures the pattern inferred from paleoclimate records. The physical process we describe likely affected past civilizations, including the Maya, Moche, and Ancestral Puebloans who experienced drought coincident with increased irradiance during the late medieval (~900-1250). Similarly, decreased irradiance may have affected cultures via a weakened monsoon during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1750). Projections of 21st-century climate change yield hydrologic cycle changes via similar processes, suggesting a strong likelihood of increased subtropical drought as climate warms.

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2005-01-01

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

Solar particle dose rate buildup and distribution in critical body organs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwell, William; Weyland, Mark D.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

1993-01-01

Human body organs have varying degrees of radiosensitivity as evidenced by radioepidemiologic tables. The major critical organs for both the male and female that have been identified include the lung, thyroid, stomach, and breast (female). Using computerized anatomical models of the 50th percentile United States Air Force male and female, we present the self-shielding effects of these various body organs and how the shielding effects change as the location (dose point) in the body varies. Several major solar proton events from previous solar cycles and several events from the current 22nd solar cycle have been analyzed. The solar particle event rise time, peak intensity, and decay time vary considerably from event to event. Absorbed dose and dose equivalent rate calculations and organ risk assessment data are presented for each critical body organ. These data are compared with the current NASA astronaut dose limits as recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

Newly found evidence of Sun-climate relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hongsuk H.; Huang, Norden E.

1993-01-01

Solar radiation cycles drive climatic changes intercyclically. These interdecadal changes were detected as variations in solar total irradiances over the time period of recorded global surface-air-temperature (SAT) and have been restored utilizing Earth Radiation Budget Channel 10C measurements (1978-1990), Greenwich Observatory faculae data (1874-1975), and Taipei Observatory Active Region data (1964-1991). Analysis of the two separate events was carried out by treating each as a discrete time series determined by the length of each solar cycle. The results show that the global SAT responded closely to the input of solar cyclical activities, S, with a quantitative relation of T = 1.62 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. This correlation peaks at 0.71 with a built-in time lag of 32 months in temperature response. Solar forcing in interannual time scale was also detected and the derived relationship of T = 0.17 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was observed. Our analysis shows derived climate sensitivities approximately fit the theoretical feedback slope, 4T(sup 3).

SOLAR MODULATION OF THE LOCAL INTERSTELLAR SPECTRUM WITH VOYAGER 1 , AMS-02, PAMELA , AND BESS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corti, C.; Bindi, V.; Consolandi, C.

In recent years, the increasing precision of direct cosmic rays measurements opened the door to high-sensitivity indirect searches of dark matter and to more accurate predictions for radiation doses received by astronauts and electronics in space. The key ingredients in the study of these phenomena are the knowledge of the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) of galactic cosmic rays and the understanding of how the solar modulation affects the LIS inside the heliosphere. Voyager 1 , AMS-02, PAMELA , and BESS measurements of proton and helium fluxes provide valuable information, allowing us to shed light on the shape of the LISmore » and the details of the solar modulation during solar cycles 22-24. A new parametrization of the LIS is presented, based on the latest data from Voyager 1 and AMS-02. Using the framework of the force-field approximation, the solar modulation parameter is extracted from the time-dependent fluxes measured by PAMELA and BESS . A modified version of the force-field approximation with a rigidity-dependent modulation parameter is introduced, yielding better fits than the force-field approximation. The results are compared with the modulation parameter inferred by neutron monitors.« less

Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty-First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-15

cycle under volcanically clean aerosol conditions. Those models that do not reproduce a quasi- biennial oscillation ( QBO ) also include a relaxation...forc- ing toward the observed QBO (Giorgetta and Bengtsson 1999) for the SCN2 simulations. Table 2 summarizes the simulations used in this study and any...However simulations from three of the models included a future solar forcing and two models included an artificial QBO forcing in the tropics (see

Solar forcing - implications for the volatile inventory on Mars and Venus. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundin, Rickard

2015-04-01

Planets in the solar system are exposed to a persistent solar forcing by solar irradiation and the solar wind. The forcing, most pronounced for the inner Earth-like planets, ionizes, heats, modifies chemically, and gradually erodes the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the planets. Of the four inner planets, the Earth is at present the only one habitable. Our kin Venus and Mars have taken different evolutionary paths, the present lack of a hydrosphere being the most significant difference. However, there are ample evidence for that an early Noachian, water rich period existed on Mars. Similarly, arguments have been presented for an early water-rich period on Venus. The question is, what made Mars and Venus evolve in such a different way compared to the Earth? Under the assumption of similar initial conditions, the planets may have experienced different externally driven episodes (e.g. impacts) with time. Conversely, internal factors on Mars and Venus made them less resilient, unable to sustain solar forcing on an evolutionary time-scale. The latter has been quantified from simulations, combining atmospheric and ionospheric modeling and empiric data from solar-like stars (Sun in time). In a similar way, semi-empirical models based on experimental data were used to determine the mass-loss of volatiles back in time from Mars and Venus. This presentation will review further aspects of semi-empirical modeling based on ion and energetic neutral atom (ENA) escape data from Mars and Venus - on short term (days), mid-term (solar cycle proxies), long-term (Heliospheric flux proxies, 10 000 year), and on time scales corresponding to the solar evolution.

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION-DRIVEN KINEMATIC MEAN FIELD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simard, Corinne; Charbonneau, Paul; Bouchat, Amelie, E-mail: corinne@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: amelie.bouchat@mail.mcgill.ca

We construct a series of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models operating in the {alpha}{Omega}, {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} and {alpha}{sup 2} regimes, all using the full {alpha}-tensor extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing large-scale magnetic fields undergoing solar-like cyclic polarity reversals. We also include an internal differential rotation profile produced in a purely hydrodynamical parent simulation of solar convection, and a simple meridional flow profile described by a single cell per meridional quadrant. An {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} mean-field model, presumably closest to the mode of dynamo action characterizing the MHD simulation, produces a spatiotemporal evolution of magnetic fields thatmore » share some striking similarities with the zonally-averaged toroidal component extracted from the simulation. Comparison with {alpha}{sup 2} and {alpha}{Omega} mean-field models operating in the same parameter regimes indicates that much of the complexity observed in the spatiotemporal evolution of the large-scale magnetic field in the simulation can be traced to the turbulent electromotive force. Oscillating {alpha}{sup 2} solutions are readily produced, and show some similarities with the observed solar cycle, including a deep-seated toroidal component concentrated at low latitudes and migrating equatorward in the course of the solar cycle. Various numerical experiments performed using the mean-field models reveal that turbulent pumping plays an important role in setting the global characteristics of the magnetic cycles.« less

Nonlinear Insolation Forcing: A Physical Mechanism for Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H. S.

1998-01-01

This paper focuses on recent advances in the understanding of nonlinear insolation forcing for climate change. The amplitude-frequency resonances in the insolation variations induced by the Earth's changing obliquity are emergent and may provide a physical mechanism to drive the glaciation cycles. To establish the criterion that nonlinear insolation forcing is responsible for major climate changes, the cooperative phenomena between the frequency and amplitude of the insolation are defined as insolation pulsation. Coupling of the insolation frequency and amplitude variations has established an especially new and interesting series of insolation pulses. These pulses would modulate the insolation in such a way that the mode of insolation variations could be locked to generate the 100-kyr ice age cycle which is a long-time geophysical puzzle. The nonlinear behavior of insolation forcing is tested by energy balance and ice sheet climate models and the physical mechanism behind this forcing is explained in terms of pulse duration in the incoming solar radiation. Calculations of the solar energy flux at the top of the atmosphere show that the duration of the negative and positive insolation pulses is about 2 thousand years which is long enough to prolong glaciation into deep ice ages and cause rapid melting of large ice sheets in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. We have performed numerical simulations of climate response to nonlinear insolation forcing for the past 2 million years. Our calculated results of temperature fluctuations are in good agreement with the climate cycles as seen in the terrestrial biogenic silica (BDP-96-2) data as well as in the marine oxygen isotope (delta(sup 18)O) records.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

2016-04-01

The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermolli, I.; Matthes, K.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Krivova, N. A.; Tourpali, K.; Weber, M.; Unruh, Y. C.; Gray, L.; Langematz, U.; Pilewskie, P.; Rozanov, E.; Schmutz, W.; Shapiro, A.; Solanki, S. K.; Woods, T. N.

2013-04-01

The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth's climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modelled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI models. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specifically NRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Irradiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), and OAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. However, the integral of the SSI computed with this model over the entire spectral range does not reproduce the measured cyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an essential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects on the Earth's climate in CCMs. We show that within the range provided by the recent SSI observations and semi-empirical models discussed here, the NRLSSI model and SORCE observations represent the lower and upper limits in the magnitude of the SSI solar cycle variation. The results of the CCM simulations, forced with the SSI solar cycle variations estimated from the NRLSSI model and from SORCE measurements, show that the direct solar response in the stratosphere is larger for the SORCE than for the NRLSSI data. Correspondingly, larger UV forcing also leads to a larger surface response. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the available data and we propose additional coordinated work, first to build composite SSI data sets out of scattered observations and to refine current SSI models, and second, to run coordinated CCM experiments.

Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scafetta, Nicola

2016-04-01

The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced mostly by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. Scafetta, N.: Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.- Terr. Phys. 80, 296-311 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys. Space Sci. 354, 275-299 (2014).

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas

2018-03-01

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

Revisiting the Solar Oblateness: Is Relevant Astrophysics Possible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozelot, J. P.; Fazel, Z.

2013-10-01

The measurement of solar oblateness has a rich history extending well back into the past. Until recently, its estimate has been actively disputed, as has its temporal dependence. Recent accurate observations of the solar shape gave cause for doubt, and so far only balloon flights or satellite experiments, such as those onboard SDO, seem to achieve the required sensitivity to measure the expected small deviations from sphericity. A shrinking or an expanding shape is ultimately linked to solar activity (likely not homologously with its change), as gravitational or magnetic fields, which are existing mechanisms for storing energy during a solar cycle, lead to distinct perturbations in the equilibrium solar-structure and changes in the diameter. It follows that a sensitive determination of the solar radius fluctuations might give information about the origin of the solar cycle. In periods of higher activity, the outer photospheric shape seems to become aspheric under the influence of higher-order multipole moments of the Sun, resulting both from the centrifugal force and the core rotation. An accurate determination of the shape of the Sun is thus one of the ways that we have now for peering into its interior, learning empirically about flows and motions there that would otherwise only be guessed at from theoretical considerations, developing more precise inferences, and ultimately building possible alternative gravitational theories.

The 11 years solar cycle as the manifestation of the dark Universe

DOE PAGES

Zioutas, K.; Semertzidis, Y.; Tsagri, M.; ...

2014-11-26

Sun’s luminosity in the visible changes at the 10 -3 level, following an 11 years period. In X-rays, which should not be there, the amplitude varies even ~10 5 times stronger, making their mysterious origin since the discovery in 1938 even more puzzling, and inspiring. We suggest that the multifaceted mysterious solar cycle is due to some kind of dark matter streams hitting the Sun. Planetary gravitational lensing enhances (occasionally) slow moving flows of dark constituents towards the Sun, giving rise to the periodic behaviour. Jupiter provides the driving oscillatory force, though its 11.8 years orbital period appears slightly decreased,more » just as 11 years, if the lensing impact of other planets is included. Then, the 11 years solar clock may help to decipher (overlooked) signatures from the dark sector in laboratory experiments or observations in space.« less

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-08-01

Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 - 24 Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liou, Kan; Wu, Chin-Chun

2016-12-01

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23 - 24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth's orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6 - 1995.8) and third (2006.9 - 2008.2) Ulysses' perihelion ({˜} 1.4 AU) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense ({˜} 34 %) and cooler ({˜} 20 %), and the total magnetic field was {˜} 30 % weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was {˜} 50 % wider in the third ({˜} 68.5^deg; in heliographic latitude) than in the first ({˜} 44.8°) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses' perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.

Potential forcings of summer temperature variability of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the past 12 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Enlou; Chang, Jie; Sun, Weiwei; Cao, Yanmin; Langdon, Peter; Cheng, Jun

2018-06-01

Investigating potential forcing mechanisms of terrestrial summer temperature changes from the Asian summer monsoon influenced area is of importance to better understand the climate variability in these densely populated regions. The results of spectral and wavelet analyses of the published chironomid reconstructed mean July temperature data from Tiancai Lake on the SE Tibetan Plateau are presented. The evidence of solar forcing of the summer temperature variability from the site on centennial timescales where key solar periodicities (at 855 ± 40, 465 ± 40, 315 ± 40 and 165 ± 40 year) are revealed. By using a band-pass filter, coherent fluctuations were found in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and high elevation mid-latitude (26°N) terrestrial temperatures with solar sunspot cycles since about 7.6 ka. The two abrupt cooling events detected from the Tiancai Lake record, centered at ∼9.7 and 3.5 ka were examined respectively. Coupled with the paleoclimate modeling results, the early Holocene event (9.7 ka) is possibly linked to an ocean-atmospheric feedback mechanism whereas the latter event (3.5 ka) may be more directly related to external forcing.

Global upper ocean heat storage response to radiative forcing from changing solar irradiance and increasing greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lean, Judith

1998-09-01

We constructed gridded fields of diabatic heat storage changes in the upper ocean from 20°S to 60°N from historical temperature profiles collected from 1955 to 1996. We filtered these 42 year records for periods of 8 to 15 years and 15 to 30 years, producing depth-weighted vertical average temperature (DVT) changes from the sea surface to the top of the main pycnocline. Basin and global averages of these DVT changes reveal decadal and interdecadal variability in phase across the Indian, Pacific, Atlantic, and Global Oceans, each significantly correlated with changing surface solar radiative forcing at a lag of 0+/-2 years. Decadal and interdecadal changes in global average DVT are 0.06°+/-0.01°K and 0.04°K+/-0.01°K, respectively, the same as those expected from consideration of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance (i.e., 0.3°K per Wm-2) in response to 0.1% changes in surface solar radiative forcing of 0.2 Wm-2 and 0.15 Wm-2, respectively. Global spatial patterns of DVT changes are similar to temperature changes simulated in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, suggesting that natural modes of Earth's variability are phase-locked to the solar irradiance cycle. A trend in global average DVT of 0.15°K over this 42 year record cannot be explained by changing surface solar radiative forcing. But when we consider the 0.5 Wm-2 increase in surface radiative forcing estimated from the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol (GGA) concentrations over this period [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1995], the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance yields this observed change. Moreover, the sum of solar and GGA surface radiative forcing can explain the relatively sharp increase in global and basin average DVT in the late 1970's.

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2006-01-01

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2006-01-01

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the elevated heat pump hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South .and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Annual evaporite deposition at the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis: evidence for solar-lunar climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzi, Vinicio; Gennari, Rocco; Lugli, Stefano; Roveri, Marco; Scafetta, Nicola; Schreiber, B. Charlotte

2013-04-01

We studied two evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves in order to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC; ≈5.5 Ma), when huge volumes of evaporites accumulated on the floor of the Mediterranean basin. The spectral analyses of these varved evaporitic successions reveal significant peaks in periodicity at around 3-5, 9, 11-13, 20-27 and 50-100 yr. The deposition of varved sedimentary deposits is usually controlled by climate conditions. A comparison with modern precipitation data in the western Mediterranean shows that during the acme of the MSC the climate was not in a permanent evaporitic stage, but in a dynamic state where evaporite deposition was controlled by quasi-periodic climate oscillations similar to modern analogs including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and decadal to secular lunar- and solar-induced cycles. Particularly, we found a significant quasi-decadal oscillation with a prominent 9-year peak that is also common in modern temperature records and is present in both the contemporary Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. These cyclical patterns are common to both ancient and modern climate records because they can be associated with solar and solar-lunar tidal cycles. During the Messinian, the Mediterranean basin as well as the global ocean, were characterized by somewhat different continent distribution, ocean size, geography, hydrological connections, and ice-sheet volume with respect to the modern configuration. The recognition of modern-style climate oscillations during the Messinian, however, suggests that, although local geographic factors acted as pre-conditioning factors turning the Mediterranean Sea into a giant brine pool, external climate forcing, regulated by solar-lunar cycles and largely independent of those local geographic factors, modulated the deposition of the evaporites.

The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik

2015-01-16

We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many ofmore » the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.« less

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

1997-01-01

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

Solar-induced 27-day variations of polar mesospheric clouds from the AIM SOFIE and CIPS experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurairajah, Brentha; Thomas, Gary E.; von Savigny, Christian; Snow, Martin; Hervig, Mark E.; Bailey, Scott M.; Randall, Cora E.

2017-09-01

Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) observations from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) experiment are used to investigate the response of PMCs to forcing associated with the 27-day solar rotation. We quantify the PMC response in terms of sensitivity values. Analysis of PMC data from 14 seasons indicate a large seasonal variability in sensitivity with both correlation and anti-correlation between PMC properties and Lyman-alpha irradiance for individual seasons. However, a superposed epoch analysis reveals the expected anti-correlation between variations in solar Lyman-alpha and variations in PMC ice water content, albedo, and frequency of occurrence. The PMC height is found to significantly correlate with 27-day variations in solar Lyman-alpha in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern hemisphere (NH). Depending on instrument and property, the time lag between variations in PMC properties and solar Lyman-alpha ranges from 0 to 3 days in the NH and from 6 to 7 days in the SH. These hemispheric differences in PMC height and time lag are not understood, but it is speculated that they result from dynamical forcing that is controlled by the 27-day solar cycle.

Observed Reduction In Surface Solar Radiation - Aerosol Forcing Versus Cloud Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liepert, B.

The solar radiation reaching the ground is a key parameter for the climate system. It drives the hydrological cycle and numerous biological processes. Surface solar radi- ation revealed an estimated 7W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. The strongest decline occurred at the United States sites with 19W/m2 or 10%. Increasing air pollution and hence direct and indirect aerosol effect, as we know today can only explain part of the reduction in solar radiation. Increasing cloud optical thick- ness - possibly due to global warming - is a more likely explanation for the observed reduction in solar radiation in the United States. The analysis of surface solar radiation data will be shown and compared with GCM results of the direct and indirect aerosol effect. It will be argued that the residual declines in surface solar radiation is likely due to cloud feedback.

Downward Link of Solar Activity Variations Through Wave Driven Equatorial Oscillations (QBO and SAO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Signatures of the 11-year solar activity/irradiance cycle are observed in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the lower stratosphere. At these altitudes, the QBO is understood to be the result of "downward control" exerted by the wave mean flow interactions that drive the phenomenon. It is reasonable then to speculate that the QBO is a natural conduit to lower altitudes of solar activity variations in radiance (SAV). To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). To account for the SAV, we change the solar heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 kin to 10% at 100 km. With the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the solar activity irradiance effect (SAE) on the zonal circulation at low latitudes. The numerical results obtained show that, under certain conditions, the SAE is significant in the zonal circulation and does extend to lower altitudes where the SAV is small. The differences in the wind velocities can be as large as 5 m/s at 20 kin. We carried out two numerical experiments with integrations over more than 20 years: 1) With the QBO period "tuned" to be 30 months, of academic interest but instructive, the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing [through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)] acts as a strong pacemaker to produce a firm lock on the period and phase of the QBO. The SAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. 2) With the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak compared with (1). The SAV in the seasonal cycle then causes variations in the QBO period and phase, and this amplifies the SAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. We conclude that, under realistic conditions as in (2), the solar seasonal forcing, with activity variations in radiance, causes the phase and period of the QBO to change to produce a relatively large solar activity effect in the zonal circulation at low latitudes and low altitudes.

A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

2015-04-01

The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

Preliminary Design of the Brazilian's National Institute for Space Research Broadband Radiometer for Solar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berni, L. A.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Savonov, G. S.; Dal Lago, A.; Mendes, O.; Silva, M. R.; Guarnieri, F.; Sampaio, M.; Barbosa, M. J.; Vilas Boas, J. V.; Branco, R. H. F.; Nishimori, M.; Silva, L. A.; Carlesso, F.; Rodríguez Gómez, J. M.; Alves, L. R.; Vaz Castilho, B.; Santos, J.; Silva Paula, A.; Cardoso, F.

2017-10-01

The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), which is the total radiation arriving at Earth's atmosphere from the Sun, is one of the most important forcing of the Earths climate. Measurements of the TSI have been made employing instruments on board several space-based platforms during the last four solar cycles. However, combining these measurements is still challenging due to the degradation of the sensor elements and the long-term stability of the electronics. Here we describe the preliminary efforts to design an absolute radiometer based on the principle of electrical substitution that is under development at Brazilian's National Institute for Space Research (INPE).

Total and spectral irradiance comparisons between SIM and the SATIRE model in the declining phase of cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, Will; Unruh, Yvonne; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Harder, Jerald

Climate models rely on accurate total and spectral solar irradiance inputs, but until 2003 con-tinuous spectral irradiance information across a large portion of the solar spectrum was lacking. Since the launch of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), with the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) observing the UV, visible and IR, data have been accumulating and now cover a significant portion of a cycle. For the first time this allows spectral models to be tested over periods greater than a solar rotation. We present six years of total and spectral irradiance reconstructions using the SATIRE model that incorporates SOHO/MDI continuum and magnetogram images for the period April 2004 to November 2009 in the declining phase of cycle 23 and through the recent unusual minimum. We compare these results with the SIM instrument and so cover the spectral region 200 -1600 nm. While detrended, short-term, variation is recreated well by the model, there are discrepancies in longer-term trends between observations and the model. This may become important when considering the radiative forcing from the Sun used in climate research and so understanding why there is such a significant disagreement is an important area of investigation.

DOUBLE DYNAMO SIGNATURES IN A GLOBAL MHD SIMULATION AND MEAN-FIELD DYNAMOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beaudoin, Patrice; Simard, Corinne; Cossette, Jean-François

The 11 year solar activity cycle is the most prominent periodic manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) large-scale dynamo operating in the solar interior, yet longer and shorter (quasi-) periodicities are also present. The so-called “quasi-biennial” signal appearing in many proxies of solar activity has been gaining increasing attention since its detection in p -mode frequency shifts, which suggests a subphotospheric origin. A number of candidate mechanisms have been proposed, including beating between co-existing global dynamo modes, dual dynamos operating in spatially separated regions of the solar interior, and Rossby waves driving short-period oscillations in the large-scale solar magnetic field producedmore » by the 11 year activity cycle. In this article, we analyze a global MHD simulation of solar convection producing regular large-scale magnetic cycles, and detect and characterize shorter periodicities developing therein. By constructing kinematic mean-field α {sup 2}Ω dynamo models incorporating the turbulent electromotive force (emf) extracted from that same simulation, we find that dual-dynamo behavior materializes in fairly wide regions of the model’s parameters space. This suggests that the origin of the similar behavior detected in the MHD simulation lies with the joint complexity of the turbulent emf and differential rotation profile, rather that with dynamical interactions such as those mediated by Rossby waves. Analysis of the simulation also reveals that the dual dynamo operating therein leaves a double-period signature in the temperature field, consistent with a dual-period helioseismic signature. Order-of-magnitude estimates for the magnitude of the expected frequency shifts are commensurate with helioseismic measurements. Taken together, our results support the hypothesis that the solar quasi-biennial oscillations are associated with a secondary dynamo process operating in the outer reaches of the solar convection zone.« less

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Modulation of ENA in the heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bzowski, Maciej; Kubiak, Marzena; Czechowski, Andrzej

Energetic Neutral Atoms (ENA), an important part of heliospheric physics, have recently en-joyed an increased interest because of the breakthrough observations by the NASA SMEX mission IBEX. Generally, ENA appear as a product of charge exchange reaction between an energetic ion and a neutral gas atom. Being insensitive to electromagnetic forces, ENA run away freely from their birth sites and can carry information on the physical state of the parent plasma on (somewhat energy-dependent) distances well in excess of 100 AU. The ENA fluxes exhibit modulation due to time variations of their source function due to modulation of solar wind on time scales from days to solar cycle and due to large-scale variation in the latitude structure of the solar wind, as well as to the variations in the loss rate due to re-ionization. Once created, the ENA flux suffers losses mostly due to photoionization by solar EUV photons, but also to charge exchange and electron impact. We will review the variation of survival prob-ability of the ENA created in the inner heliosheath and observed by spacecraft on Mars, Earth, and Venus orbits (like Mars Express, IBEX, and Venus Express) and solar-cycle modulation of the radially-expanding spectral flux of ENA consisting of the solar wind protons and alpha particles transcharged on the neutral interstellar gas inside the heliosphere.

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Solar-cycle dependence of a model turbulence spectrum using IMP and ACE observations over 38 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, R. A.; Nel, A. E.; Engelbrecht, N. E.

2014-12-01

Ab initio modulation models require a number of turbulence quantities as input for any reasonable diffusion tensor. While turbulence transport models describe the radial evolution of such quantities, they in turn require observations in the inner heliosphere as input values. So far we have concentrated on solar minimum conditions (e.g. Engelbrecht and Burger 2013, ApJ), but are now looking at long-term modulation which requires turbulence data over at a least a solar magnetic cycle. As a start we analyzed 1-minute resolution data for the N-component of the magnetic field, from 1974 to 2012, covering about two solar magnetic cycles (initially using IMP and then ACE data). We assume a very simple three-stage power-law frequency spectrum, calculate the integral from the highest to the lowest frequency, and fit it to variances calculated with lags from 5 minutes to 80 hours. From the fit we then obtain not only the asymptotic variance at large lags, but also the spectral index of the inertial and the energy, as well as the breakpoint between the inertial and energy range (bendover scale) and between the energy and cutoff range (cutoff scale). All values given here are preliminary. The cutoff range is a constraint imposed in order to ensure a finite energy density; the spectrum is forced to be either flat or to decrease with decreasing frequency in this range. Given that cosmic rays sample magnetic fluctuations over long periods in their transport through the heliosphere, we average the spectra over at least 27 days. We find that the variance of the N-component has a clear solar cycle dependence, with smaller values (~6 nT2) during solar minimum and larger during solar maximum periods (~17 nT2), well correlated with the magnetic field magnitude (e.g. Smith et al. 2006, ApJ). Whereas the inertial range spectral index (-1.65 ± 0.06) does not show a significant solar cycle variation, the energy range index (-1.1 ± 0.3) seems to be anti-correlated with the variance (Bieber et al. 1993, JGR); both indices show close to normal distributions. In contrast, the variance (e.g. Burlaga and Ness, 1998, JGR), and both the bendover scale (see Ruiz et al. 2014, Solar Physics) and cutoff scale appear to be log-normal distributed.

Solar cycles and depositional processes in annual 10Be from two varved lake sediment records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, Markus; Muscheler, Raimund; Brauer, Achim; Adolphi, Florian; Ott, Florian; Kienel, Ulrike; Dräger, Nadine; Słowiński, Michał; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran

2015-10-01

Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (∼solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r = 0.5, p = 0.05, n = 16; JC: r = 0.46, p = 0.03, n = 22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Beatmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Becomposite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Beatmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r = 0.49, p = 0.01, n = 25) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

Solar cycle predicts folate-sensitive neonatal genotypes at discrete phases of the first trimester of pregnancy: a novel folate-related human embryo loss hypothesis.

PubMed

Lucock, Mark; Glanville, Tracey; Yates, Zoë; Walker, James; Furst, John; Simpson, Nigel

2012-08-01

Folate, a key periconceptional nutrient, is ultraviolet light (UV-R) sensitive. We therefore hypothesise that a relationship exists between sunspot activity, a proxy for total solar irradiance (particularly UV-R) reaching Earth, and the occurrence of folate-sensitive, epigenomic-related neonatal genotypes during the first trimester of pregnancy. Limited data is provided to support the hypothesis that the solar cycle predicts folate-related human embryo loss: 379 neonates born at latitude 54°N between 1998 and 2000 were examined for three folate-sensitive, epigenome-related polymorphisms, with solar activity for trimester one accessed via the Royal Greenwich Observatory-US Air force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sunspot Database (34,110 total observation days). Logistic regression showed solar activity predicts C677T-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (C677T-MTHFR) and A66G-methionine synthase reductase (A66G-MSR) genotype at discrete phases of trimester one. Total and maximal sunspot activity predicts C677T-MTHFR genotype for days 31-60 of trimester one (p=0.0181 and 0.0366, respectively) and A66G-MSR genotype for days 61-90 of trimester one (p=0.0072 and 0.0105, respectively). Loss of UV-R sensitive folate associated with the sunspot cycle might therefore interact with variant folate genes to perturb DNA methylation and/or elaboration of the primary base sequence (thymidylate synthesis), as well as increase embryo-toxic homocysteine. We hypothesise that this may influence embryo viability leading to 677CC-MTHFR and 66GG-MSR embryo loss at times of increased solar activity. This provides an interesting and plausible link between well recognised 'folate gene originated developmental disorders' and 'solar activity/seasonality modulated developmental disorders'. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar forcing of the Indian summer monsoon variability during the Ållerød period.

PubMed

Gupta, Anil K; Mohan, Kuppusamy; Das, Moumita; Singh, Raj K

2013-09-25

Rapid climatic shifts across the last glacial to Holocene transition are pervasive feature of the North Atlantic as well as low latitude proxy archives. Our decadal to centennial scale record of summer monsoon proxy Globigerina bulloides from rapidly accumulating sediments from Hole 723A, Arabian Sea shows two distinct intervals of weak summer monsoon wind coinciding with cold periods within Ållerød inerstadial of the North Atlantic named here as IACP-A1 and IACP-A2 and dated (within dating uncertainties) at 13.5 and 13.3 calibrated kilo years before the present (cal kyr BP), respectively. Spectral analysis of the Globigerina bulloides time series for the segment 13.6-13.1 kyr (Ållerød period) reveals a strong solar 208-year cycle also known as de Vries or Suess cycle, suggesting that the centennial scale variability in Indian summer monsoon winds during the Ållerød inerstadial was driven by changes in the solar irradiance through stratospheric-tropospheric interactions.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less

Influence of magnetic pressure on stellar structure: A Mechanism for solar variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Endal, A. S.

1980-01-01

A physical mechanism is proposed that couples the Sun's dynamo magnetic field to its gravitational potential energy. The mechanism involves the isotropic field pressure resulting in a lifting force on the convective envelope, thereby raising its potential energy. Decay of the field due to solar activity allows the envelop to subside and releases this energy, which can augment the otherwise steady solar luminosity. Equations are developed and applied to the Sun for several field configurations. The best estimate model suggests that uniform luminosity variations as large as 0.02% for half a sunspot cycle may occur. Brief temporal variations or the rotation of spatial structures could allow larger excursions in the energy released.

On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2008-01-01

Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

Wave-driven Equatorial Annual Oscillation Induced and Modulated by the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Wolff, Charles

2005-01-01

Our model for the solar cycle (SC) modulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produces a hemispherically symmetric 12-month Annual Oscillation (AO) in the zonal winds, which is confined to low latitudes. This Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) is produced by interaction between the anti-symmetric component of SC forcing and the dominant anti-symmetric AO. The EA0 is amplified by the upward propagating small- scale gravity waves (GW), and the oscillation propagates down through the stratosphere like the QBO. The amplitude of the EA0 is relatively small, but its SC modulation contributes significantly to extend the effect to lower altitudes. Although the energy of the EA0 is concentrated at low latitudes, prominent signatures appear in the Polar Regions where the SC produces measurable temperature variations. At lower altitudes, the SC effects are significantly different in the two hemispheres because of the EAO, and due to its GW driven downward propagation the phase of the annual cycle is delayed.

The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

2000-01-01

Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. PMID:10725399

Understanding The Behavior Of The Sun'S Large Scale Magnetic Field And Its Relation With The Meridional Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Gopal

2018-02-01

In this thesis, various studies leading to better understanding of the 11-year solar cycle and its theoretical modeling with the flux transport dynamo model are performed. Although this is primarily a theoretical thesis, there is a part dealing with the analysis of observational data. The various proxies of solar activity (e.g., sunspot number, sunspot area and 10.7 cm radio flux) from various observatory including the sunspot area records of Kodaikanal Observatory have been analyzed to study the irregular aspects of solar cycles and an analysis has been carried out on the correlation between the decay rate and the next cycle amplitude. The theoretical analysis starts with explaining how the magnetic buoyancy has been treated in the flux transport dynamo models, and advantages and disadvantages of different treatments. It is found that some of the irregular properties of the solar cycle in the decaying phase can only be well explained using a particular treatment of the magnetic buoyancy. Next, the behavior of the dynamo with the different spatial structures of the meridional flow based on recent helioseismology results has been studied. A theoretical model is constructed considering the back reaction due to the Lorentz force on the meridional flows which explains the observed variation of the meridional flow with the solar cycle. Finally, some results with 3D FTD models are presented. This 3D model is developed to handle the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and magnetic buoyancy more realistically than previous 2D models and can capture some important effects connected with the subduction of the magnetic field in polar regions, which are missed in 2D surface flux transport models. This 3D model is further used to study the evolution of the magnetic fields due to a turbulent non-axisymmetric velocity field and to compare the results with the results obtained by using a simple turbulent diffusivity coefficient.

Coherent anti-phasing between solar forcing and tropical Pacific climate over the past millennium: derivation and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K.; Mann, M. E.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2011-12-01

Using a compilation of the most recent, high-resolution proxy data from the tropics, and a state-of-the-art climate reconstruction technique (RegEM iTTLS; Emile-Geay et al, submitted), we reconstruct sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 region) over the past millennium. Using frozen network experiments and pseudoproxy validation, the reconstruction is found skillful back to 1150 C.E., with inevitable amplitude reduction before 1500 C.E. due to the paucity of proxy predictors. Despite this caveat, wavelet coherency analysis reveals a marked anticorrelation between solar forcing (as estimated from cosmogenic isotope concentrations; Bard et al., 2007; Steinhilber et al., 2009) and the reconstructed NINO3.4 in the ~sim205-year spectral range (DeVries cycle). The phase angle between both signals is 156 ± 33o in this range, indicating that periods of high solar irradiance coincide with cool conditions in the NINO3.4 region, with time lag of 14 ± 19 years. We find this result robust to the reconstruction method, estimate of solar forcing, or analysis method used to estimate the phasing. We then discuss the implication of this result for the response of tropical Pacific climate to radiative forcing. While the anti-phasing seems to favor the ``ocean dynamical thermostat'' hypothesis of Clement et al [1996], this feedback appears subdued in most IPCC-class coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), where it is almost completely compensated by changes in the Pacific trade winds, linked to changes in the vertical structures of atmospheric moisture and temperature (Knutson & Manabe 1995; Held & Soden 2006; Vecchi et al. 2006). If the reconstruction is correct that past NINO3.4 SSTs have varied out of phase with solar irradiance on bicentennial scales, this would pose a new challenge both for CGCM simulations and for our understanding of the equatorial Pacific response to radiative forcing Clement, A. C., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Zebiak, S. E. (1996). An ocean dynamical thermostat. J. Clim., 9(9):2190-2196. Emile-Geay, J., K. Cobb, M. Mann, and A. T. Wittenberg, Estimating Tropical Pacific SST variability over the Past Millennium. Part 1: Methodology and Validation. J. Clim., submitted. available at: http://college.usc.edu/labs/jeg/publications/. Held, Isaac M., Brian J. Soden, 2006: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3990.1 Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Fröhlich, C. (2009). Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36:L19704. Vecchi, G. A., Soden, B. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Held, I. M., Leetmaa, A., and Harrison, M. J. (2006). Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441:73-76.

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Solar modulation of earthquake occurrence in areas penetrated by L of 2.0 populated by anomalous cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachikyan, Galina; Inchin, Alexander; Toyshiev, Nursultan

An analysis of data of global seismological catalog NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center of the U.S. Geological Survey) for 1973-2011 (182933 events with magnitude equal to 4.5 and more) has been carried out with taken into account the geometry of the main geomagnetic field as gives the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-11) model. It is found that the greatest number of earthquakes occurs in seismic areas penetrated by the geomagnetic force lines L=1.0-1.1, and additionally, the L-shell distribution of earthquake counting rate is peaked at the L equal to 2.0-2.2, which are inhabited by the Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). It is revealed that occurrence of strong earthquakes (with magnitude 7.0 and more) in these areas is modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. Namely, during 1973-2011, twenty strong earthquakes occurred in regions where the L=2.0-2.2 are loaned into the earth’s crust and, surprisingly, all of these earthquakes occurred only at the declining phase of the 11 year solar cycles while were absent at the ascending phase. Solar modulation of earthquake occurrence may be explained at present in the frame of a modern idea that earthquake is triggered by the electric currents flowing into the global electric circuit (GEC), where the charged geomagnetic force lines play the role of conductors (field align currents). The operation of GEC depends on intensity of cosmic rays which provide ionization and conductivity of the air in the middle atmosphere. Since the ACRs are especially sensitive to solar modulation, and since they populate the L of 2.0, it may be expected that earthquake occurrence in the areas penetrated by L of 2.0 would be especially sensitive to solar modulation. Our results prove this expectation, but much work is required to study this problem in more details.

Diurnal Course of Evaporation From the Dead Sea in Summer: A Distinct Double Peak Induced by Solar Radiation and Night Sea Breeze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lensky, N. G.; Lensky, I. M.; Peretz, A.; Gertman, I.; Tanny, J.; Assouline, S.

2018-01-01

Partitioning between the relative effects of the radiative and aerodynamic components of the atmospheric forcing on evaporation is challenging since diurnal distributions of wind speed and solar radiation typically overlap. The Dead Sea is located about a 100 km off the Eastern Mediterranean coast, where and the Mediterranean Sea breeze front reaches it after sunset. Therefore, in the Dead Sea the peaks of solar radiation and wind speed diurnal cycles in the Dead Sea are distinctly separated in time, offering a unique opportunity to distinguish between their relative impacts on evaporation. We present mid-summer eddy covariance and meteorological measurements of evaporation rate and surface energy fluxes over the Dead Sea. The evaporation rate is characterized by a clear diurnal cycle with a daytime peak, few hours after solar radiation peak, and a nighttime peak coincident with wind speed peak. Evaporation rate is minimum during sunrise and sunset. Measurements of evaporation rate from two other water bodies that are closer to the Mediterranean coast, Eshkol Reservoir, and Lake Kinneret, present a single afternoon peak, synchronous with the sea breeze. The inland diurnal evaporation rate cycle varies with the distance from the Mediterranean coast, following the propagation of sea breeze front: near the coast, wind speed, and radiation peaks are close and consequently a single daily evaporation peak appears in the afternoon; at the Dead Sea, about a 100 km inland, the sea breeze front arrives at sunset, resulting in a diurnal evaporation cycle characterized by a distinct double peak.

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chanin, M. L.

1989-01-01

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Origin of limestone-marlstone cycles: Astronomic forcing of organic-rich sedimentary rocks from the Cenomanian to early Coniacian of the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldrett, James S.; Ma, Chao; Bergman, Steven C.; Ozkan, Aysen; Minisini, Daniel; Lutz, Brendan; Jackett, Sarah-Jane; Macaulay, Calum; Kelly, Amy E.

2015-08-01

We present an integrated multidisciplinary study of limestone-marlstone couplets from a continuously cored section including parts of the upper Buda Limestone, the entire Eagle Ford Group (Boquillas Formation) and lower Austin Chalk from the Shell Iona-1 research borehole (Texas, USA), which provides a >8 million year (myr) distal, clastic sediment-starved, intrashelf basin record of the early Cenomanian to the earliest Coniacian Stages. Results show that despite variable yet minimal diagenetic overprints, several unambiguous primary environmental signals are preserved and support greater water-mass ventilation and current activity promoting increased silica/carbonate productivity during the deposition of limestone beds compared to deposition of marlstone beds which reflect greater organic matter productivity and preservation. Furthermore, our astronomical analyses demonstrate that the limestone-marlstone couplets in the Iona-1 core reflect climatic forcing driven by solar insolation resulting from integrated Milankovitch periodicities. In particular, we propose that obliquity and precession forcing on the latitudinal distribution of solar insolation may have been responsible for the observed lithological and environmental variations through the Cenomanian, Turonian and Coniacian in this mid-latitude epicontinental sea setting. Our data also suggests that rhythmic lithological alternations deposited in Greenhouse periods, in general, may simply reflect climate-driven cycles related to Earth-Sun dynamics without the need to invoke significant sea-level variations.

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: On Grand Minima in Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcintosh, Scott; Leamon, Robert

2015-07-01

The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a "grand minimum"? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle.

Periodicities in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions and geomagnetic activity during the past solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andriyas, T.; Andriyas, S.

2017-09-01

In this paper, we study the solar-terrestrial relation through the wavelet analysis. We report periodicities common between multiple solar wind coupling functions and geomagnetic indices during five solar cycles and also and the strength of this correspondence. The Dst (found to be most predictable in Newell et al., J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys. 112(A1):A01206, 2007) and AL (least predictable in Newell et al., J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys. 112(A1):A01206, 2007) indices are used for this purpose. During the years 1966-2016 (which includes five solar cycles 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24), prominent periodicities ≤720 days with power above 95% confidence level were found to occur around 27, 182, 385, and 648 days in the Dst index while those in the AL index were found in bands around 27, 187, and 472 days. Ten solar wind coupling functions were then used to find periodicities common with the indices. All the coupling functions had significant power in bands centered around 27, 280, and 648 days while powers in fluctuations around 182, 385, and 472 days were only found in some coupling functions. All the drivers and their variants had power above the significant level in the 280-288 days band, which was absent in the Dst and AL indices. The normalized scale averaged spectral power around the common periods in the coupling functions and the indices indicated that the coupling functions most correlated with the Dst index were the Newell (27 and 385 days), Wygant (182 days), and Scurry-Russell and Boynton (648 days) functions. An absence of common power between the coupling functions and the Dst index around the annual periodicity was noted during the even solar cycles. A similar analysis for the AL index indicated that Newell (27 days), Rectified (187 days), and Boynton (472 days) were the most correlated functions. It was also found that the correlation numbers were relatively weaker for the AL index, specially for the 187 day periodicity. It is concluded that as the two indices respond to solar wind forcing with varying levels of strength at various prominent scales and the coupling function used, the response might be dependent on the scale (days or months or years) of interest at which the solar wind driving is to be predicted.

Monsoonal Responses to External Forcings over the Past Millennium: A Model Study (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Wang, B.

2009-12-01

The climate variations related to Global Monsoon (GM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall over the past 1000 years were investigated by analysis of a pair of millennium simulations with the coupled climate model named ECHO-G. The free run was generated using fixed external (annual cycle) forcing, while the forced run was obtained using time-varying solar irradiance variability, greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) concentration and estimated radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. The model results indicate that the centennial-millennial variation of the GM and EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcings (insolation, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases). The GM strength responds more directly to the effective solar forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of the volcanoes) when compared to responses of the global mean surface temperature on centennial timescale. The simulated GM precipitation in the forced run exhibits a significant quasi-bi-centennial oscillation. Weak GM precipitation was simulated during the Little Ice Age (1450-1850) with three weakest periods concurring with the Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimum of solar activity. Conversely, strong GM was simulated during the model Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1030-1240). Before the industrial period, the natural variation in effective solar forcing reinforces the thermal contrasts both between the ocean and continent and between the northern and southern hemispheres, resulting in millennium-scale variation and the quasi-bi-centennial oscillation of the GM. The prominent upward trend in the GM precipitation occurring in the last century and the remarkably strengthening of the global monsoon in the period of 1961-1990 appear unprecedented and owed possibly in part to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The EASM has the largest meridional extent (5oN-55oN) among all the regional monsoons on globe. Thus, the EASM provides an unique opportunity for understanding the latitudinal differences of the monsoonal responses to external forcings and internal feedback processes. The strength of the forced response depends on latitude. On centennial-millennial time scales, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely; the tropical rainfall is less sensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing but responds significantly to the modern anthropogenic CO2 forcing. The spatial patterns and structures of the forced response differ from the internal mode (i.e., interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system). Further, the behavior of the internal mode is effectively modulated by changes in the mean state on the centennial to millennial time scales. These findings have important ramification in understanding the differences and linkages between the forced and internal modes of variability as well as in promoting communication between scientists studying modern- and paleo-monsoon variations.

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.

2015-02-01

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

EUV Irradiance Inputs to Thermospheric Density Models: Open Issues and Path Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlidas, A.; Bruinsma, S.

2018-01-01

One of the objectives of the NASA Living With a Star Institute on "Nowcasting of Atmospheric Drag for low Earth orbit (LEO) Spacecraft" was to investigate whether and how to increase the accuracy of atmospheric drag models by improving the quality of the solar forcing inputs, namely, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance information. In this focused review, we examine the status of and issues with EUV measurements and proxies, discuss recent promising developments, and suggest a number of ways to improve the reliability, availability, and forecast accuracy of EUV measurements in the next solar cycle.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu

2017-08-01

The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares.

Effects of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray cycles on the modulation of the annual average temperature at two sites in southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigo, Everton; Antonelli, Francesco; da Silva, Djeniffer S. S.; Lima, Pedro C. M.; Pacca, Igor I. G.; Bageston, José V.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic variations in solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on decadal and bidecadal timescales have been suggested as a climate forcing mechanism for many regions on Earth. One of these regions is southern Brazil, where the lowest values during the last century were observed for the total geomagnetic field intensity at the Earth's surface. These low values are due to the passage of the center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), which crosses the Brazilian territory from east to west following a latitude of ˜ 26°. In areas with low geomagnetic intensity, such as the SAMA, the incidence of GCRs is increased. Consequently, possible climatic effects related to the GCRs tend to be maximized in this region. In this work, we investigate the relationship between the ˜ 11-year and ˜ 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26° S but at different longitudes. The first of these stations (Torres - TOR) is located in the coastal region, and the other (Iraí - IRA) is located in the interior, around 450 km from the Atlantic Ocean. Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR via a nonlinear mechanism, while at IRA, the effects of this 11-year modulation period were intermittent. Four temperature maxima, separated by around 20 years, were detected in the same years at both weather stations. These temperature maxima are almost coincident with the maxima of the odd solar cycles. Furthermore, these maxima occur after transitions from even to odd solar cycles, that is, after some years of intense GCR flux. The obtained results offer indirect mathematical evidence that solar activity and GCR variations contributed to climatic changes in southern Brazil during the last century. A comparison of the results obtained for the two weather stations indicates that the SAMA also contributes indirectly to these temperature variations. The contribution of other mechanisms also related to solar activity cannot be excluded.

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Study of toluene rotary fluid management device and shear flow condenser performance for a space-based organic Rankine power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Havens, Vance; Ragaller, Dana

1988-01-01

Management of two-phase fluid and control of the heat transfer process in microgravity is a technical challenge that must be addressed for an orbital Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) application. A test program was performed in 1-g that satisfactorily demonstrated the two-phase management capability of the rotating fluid management device (RFMD) and shear-flow condenser. Operational tests of the RFMD and shear flow condenser in adverse gravity orientations, confirmed that the centrifugal forces in the RFMD and the shear forces in the condenser were capable of overcoming gravity forces. In a microgravity environment, these same forces would not have to compete against gravity and would therefore be dominant. The specific test program covered the required operating range of the Space Station Solar Dynamic Rankine Cycle power system. Review of the test data verified that: fluid was pumped from the RFMD in all attitudes; subcooled states in the condenser were achieved; condensate was pushed uphill against gravity; and noncondensible gases were swept through the condenser.

The Relation between Coronal Holes and Coronal Mass Ejections during the Rise, Maximum, and Declining Phases of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohamed, A. A.; Gopalswamy, N; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Makela, P.; Xie, H.; Jung, H.

2012-01-01

We study the interaction between coronal holes (CHs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using a resultant force exerted by all the coronal holes present on the disk and is defined as the coronal hole influence parameter (CHIP). The CHIP magnitude for each CH depends on the CH area, the distance between the CH centroid and the eruption region, and the average magnetic field within the CH at the photospheric level. The CHIP direction for each CH points from the CH centroid to the eruption region. We focus on Solar Cycle 23 CMEs originating from the disk center of the Sun (central meridian distance =15deg) and resulting in magnetic clouds (MCs) and non-MCs in the solar wind. The CHIP is found to be the smallest during the rise phase for MCs and non-MCs. The maximum phase has the largest CHIP value (2.9 G) for non-MCs. The CHIP is the largest (5.8 G) for driverless (DL) shocks, which are shocks at 1 AU with no discernible MC or non-MC. These results suggest that the behavior of non-MCs is similar to that of the DL shocks and different from that of MCs. In other words, the CHs may deflect the CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line and force them to behave like limb CMEs with DL shocks. This finding supports the idea that all CMEs may be flux ropes if viewed from an appropriate vantage point.

A Comparative Study of the Eruptive and Non-eruptive Flares Produced by the Largest Active Region of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Ranadeep; Srivastava, Nandita

2018-02-01

We investigate the morphological and magnetic characteristics of solar active region (AR) NOAA 12192. AR 12192 was the largest region of Solar Cycle 24; it underwent noticeable growth and produced 6 X-class flares, 22 M-class flares, and 53 C-class flares in the course of its disc passage. However, the most peculiar fact of this AR is that it was associated with only one CME in spite of producing several X-class flares. In this work, we carry out a comparative study between the eruptive and non-eruptive flares produced by AR 12192. We find that the magnitude of abrupt and permanent changes in the horizontal magnetic field and Lorentz force are significantly smaller in the case of the confined flares compared to the eruptive one. We present the areal evolution of AR 12192 during its disc passage. We find the flare-related morphological changes to be weaker during the confined flares, whereas the eruptive flare exhibits a rapid and permanent disappearance of penumbral area away from the magnetic neutral line after the flare. Furthermore, from the extrapolated non-linear force-free magnetic field, we examine the overlying coronal magnetic environment over the eruptive and non-eruptive zones of the AR. We find that the critical decay index for the onset of torus instability was achieved at a lower height over the eruptive flaring region, than for the non-eruptive core area. These results suggest that the decay rate of the gradient of overlying magnetic-field strength may play a decisive role to determine the CME productivity of the AR. In addition, the magnitude of changes in the flare-related magnetic characteristics are found to be well correlated with the nature of solar eruptions.

Wave Driven Non-linear Flow Oscillator for the 22-Year Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Wolff, Charles L.; Hartle, Richard E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

In the Earth's atmosphere, a zonal flow oscillation is observed with periods between 20 and 32 months, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. This oscillation does not require external time dependent forcing but is maintained by non-linear wave momentum deposition. It is proposed that such a mechanism also drives long-period oscillations in planetary and stellar interiors. We apply this mechanism to generate a flow oscillation for the 22-year solar cycle. The oscillation would occur just below the convective envelope where waves can propagate. Using scale analysis, we present results from a simplified model that incorporates Hines' gravity wave parameterization. Wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can produce reversing zonal flows of 25 m/s that should be sufficient to generate a corresponding oscillation in the poloidal magnetic field. Low buoyancy frequency and the associated increase in turbulence help to produce the desired oscillation period of the flow.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-08-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

Correlation of climate cycles in middle Mississippi Valley loess and Greenland ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongfang; Hughes, R.E.; Steele, J.D.; Lepley, S.W.; Tian, J.

2003-01-01

Two complete late Wisconsin loess successions in the middle Mississippi River Valley reveal 39 and 41 alternating paleosol A- and C-horizons. Striking changes in soil color, iron content, and carbonate content define four major and two minor paleosol A-horizon complexes, which were interpreted to represent Wisconsin interstadials 1, 2, 3, 4, and semiinterstadials 1.5 and 2.5, respectively. The timing of Wisconsin interstadials matches that of corresponding Greenland interstadials. Midcontinent loess and Greenland ice records as well as rates of atmospheric 14C production have periodicities in common, suggesting a solar influence. Only a persistent heat and moisture supply could produce prominent paleosol complexes near the continental ice margin. This record suggests that El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation variability has amplified solar forcing, and resultant tropical heat and moisture transport played a significant role in millennial- and centennial-scale climate cycles during the late Wisconsin glaciation over the Northern Hemisphere.

Solar forcing of Florida Straits surface salinity during the early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Matthew W.; Weinlein, William A.; Marcantonio, Franco; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

2012-09-01

Previous studies showed that sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Florida Straits as well as Florida Current transport covaried with changes in North Atlantic climate over the past two millennia. However, little is known about earlier Holocene hydrographic variability in the Florida Straits. Here, we combine Mg/Ca-paleothermometry and stable oxygen isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white variety) from Florida Straits sediment core KNR166-2 JPC 51 (24° 24.70' N, 83° 13.14' W, 198 m deep) to reconstruct a high-resolution (˜25 yr/sample) early to mid Holocene record of sea surface temperature and δ18OSW (a proxy for SSS) variability. After removing the influence of global δ18OSW change due to continental ice volume variability, we find that early Holocene SSS enrichments are associated with increased evaporation/precipitation ratios in the Florida Straits during periods of reduced solar forcing, increased ice rafted debris in the North Atlantic and the development of more permanent El Niño-like conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. When considered with previous high-resolution reconstructions of Holocene tropical atmospheric circulation changes, our results provide evidence that variations in solar forcing over the early Holocene had a significant impact on the global tropical hydrologic cycle.

How Much Energy Can Be Stored in Solar Active Region Magnetic Fields?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and very fast coronal mass ejections usually originate in active regions on the Sun. The energy that powers these events is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. While coronal magnetic fields are not in general force-free, active regions have very strong magnetic fields and at low coronal heights the plasma beta is therefore very small, making the field (in equilibrium) essentially force-free. The Aly-Sturrock theorem shows that the energy of a fully force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored: the maximum free energy (MFE) is the difference between the open field energy and the potential field energy of the active region. In thermodynamic MHD simulations of a major eruption (the July 14, 2000 'Bastille' day event) and a modest event (February 13, 2009, we have found that the MFE indeed bounds the energy stored prior to eruption. We compute the MFE for major eruptive events in cycles 23 and 24 to investigate the maximum amount of energy that can be stored in solar active regions.Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF.

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Pegasus XL CYGNSS Solar Panel Deployment and Illumination Test

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-02

Inside Building 1555 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, solar panels for one of eight NASA's Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) spacecraft has been deployed for illumination testing. Processing activities will prepare the spacecraft for launch aboard an Orbital ATK Pegasus XL rocket. When preparations are completed at Vandenberg, the rocket will be transported to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida attached to the Orbital ATK L-1011 carrier aircraft within its payload fairing. CYGNSS will launch on the Pegasus XL rocket from the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. CYGNSS will make frequent and accurate measurements of ocean surface winds throughout the life cycle of tropical storms and hurricanes. The data that CYGNSS provides will enable scientists to probe key air-sea interaction processes that take place near the core of storms, which are rapidly changing and play a critical role in the beginning and intensification of hurricanes.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Variation in Rising Limb of Colorado River Snowmelt Runoff Hydrograph Controlled by Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, Thomas H.; Skiles, S. McKenzie; Deems, Jeffrey S.; Brandt, W. Tyler; Dozier, Jeff

2018-01-01

Common practice and conventional wisdom hold that fluctuations in air temperature control interannual variability in snowmelt and subsequent river runoff. However, recent observations in the Upper Colorado River Basin confirm that net solar radiation and by extension radiative forcing by dust deposited on snow cover exerts the primary forcing on snowmelt. We show that the variation in the shape of the rising limb of the annual hydrograph is controlled by variability in dust radiative forcing and surprisingly is independent of variations in winter and spring air temperatures. These observations suggest that hydroclimatic modeling must be improved to account for aerosol forcings of the water cycle. Anthropogenic climate change will likely reduce total snow accumulations and cause snowmelt runoff to occur earlier. However, dust radiative forcing of snowmelt is likely consuming important adaptive capacity that would allow human and natural systems to be more resilient to changing hydroclimatic conditions.

Modeling solar flare induced lower ionosphere changes using VLF/LF transmitter amplitude and phase observations at a midlatitude site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitter, E. D.

2013-04-01

Remote sensing of the ionosphere bottom using long wave radio signal propagation is a still going strong and inexpensive method for continuous monitoring purposes. We present a propagation model describing the time development of solar flare effects. Based on monitored amplitude and phase data from VLF/LF transmitters gained at a mid-latitude site during the currently increasing solar cycle no. 24 a parameterized electron density profile is calculated as a function of time and fed into propagation calculations using the LWPC (Long Wave Propagation Capability). The model allows to include lower ionosphere recombination and attachment coefficients, as well as to identify the relevant forcing X-ray wavelength band, and is intended to be a small step forward to a better understanding of the solar-lower ionosphere interaction mechanisms within a consistent framework.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies

PubMed Central

Kern, A.K.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W.E.; Mandic, O.; Soliman, A.

2012-01-01

The Late Miocene paleogeography of central Europe and its climatic history are well studied with a resolution of c. 106 years. Small-scale climatic variations are yet unresolved. Observing past climatic change of short periods, however, would encourage the understanding of the modern climatic system. Therefore, past climate archives require a resolution on a decadal to millennial scale. To detect such a short-term evolution, a continuous 6-m-core of the Paleo-Lake Pannon was analyzed in 1-cm-sample distance to provide information as precise and regular as possible. Measurements of the natural gamma radiation and magnetic susceptibility combined with the total abundance of ostracod shells were used as proxies to estimate millennial- to centennial scale environmental changes during the mid-Tortonian warm period. Patterns emerged, but no indisputable age model can be provided for the core, due to the lack of paleomagnetic reversals and the lack of minerals suitable for absolute dating. Therefore, herein we propose another method to determine a hypothetic time frame for these deposits. Based on statistical processes, including Lomb–Scargle and REDFIT periodograms along with Wavelet spectra, several distinct cyclicities could be detected. Calculations considering established off-shore sedimentation rates of the Tortonian Vienna Basin revealed patterns resembling Holocene solar-cycle-records well. The comparison of filtered data of Miocene and Holocene records displays highly similar patterns and comparable modulations. A best-fit adjustment of sedimentation rate results in signals which fit to the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle, the de Vries cycle, the unnamed 500-year- and 1000-year-cycles, as well as the Hallstatt cycle. Each of these cycles has a distinct and unique expression in the investigated environmental proxies, reflecting a complex forcing-system. Hence, a single-proxy-analysis, as often performed on Holocene records, should be considered cautiously as it might fail to capture the full range of solar cycles. PMID:23564975

Interplanetary Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat

2011-01-01

Although more than ten thousand coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are produced during each solar cycle at the Sun, only a small fraction hits the Earth. Only a small fraction of the Earth-directed CMEs ultimately arrive at Earth depending on their interaction with the solar wind and other large-scale structures such as coronal holes and CMEs. The interplanetary propagation is essentially controlled by the drag force because the propelling force and the solar gravity are significant only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote-sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Attempts to overcome this problem are made in two ways: the first is to model the CME and get the space speed of the CME, which can be compared with the in situ speed. The second method is to use stereoscopic observation so that the remote-sensed and in-situ observations make measurements on the Earth-arriving part of CMEs. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission observed several such CMEs, which helped understand the interplanetary evolution of these CMEs and to test earlier model results. This paper discusses some of these issues and updates the CME/shock travel time estimates for a number of CMEs.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Concentrating solar thermal power.

PubMed

Müller-Steinhagen, Hans

2013-08-13

In addition to wind and photovoltaic power, concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) will make a major contribution to electricity provision from renewable energies. Drawing on almost 30 years of operational experience in the multi-megawatt range, CSP is now a proven technology with a reliable cost and performance record. In conjunction with thermal energy storage, electricity can be provided according to demand. To date, solar thermal power plants with a total capacity of 1.3 GW are in operation worldwide, with an additional 2.3 GW under construction and 31.7 GW in advanced planning stage. Depending on the concentration factors, temperatures up to 1000°C can be reached to produce saturated or superheated steam for steam turbine cycles or compressed hot gas for gas turbine cycles. The heat rejected from these thermodynamic cycles can be used for sea water desalination, process heat and centralized provision of chilled water. While electricity generation from CSP plants is still more expensive than from wind turbines or photovoltaic panels, its independence from fluctuations and daily variation of wind speed and solar radiation provides it with a higher value. To become competitive with mid-load electricity from conventional power plants within the next 10-15 years, mass production of components, increased plant size and planning/operating experience will be accompanied by technological innovations. On 30 October 2009, a number of major industrial companies joined forces to establish the so-called DESERTEC Industry Initiative, which aims at providing by 2050 15 per cent of European electricity from renewable energy sources in North Africa, while at the same time securing energy, water, income and employment for this region. Solar thermal power plants are in the heart of this concept.

Solar rotational cycle in lightning activity in Japan during the 18-19th centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyahara, Hiroko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Mikami, Takehiko; Zaiki, Masumi; Hirano, Junpei; Yoshimura, Minoru; Aono, Yasuyuki; Iwahashi, Kiyomi

2018-04-01

Thunderstorm and cloud activities sometimes show a 27-day period, and this has long been studied to uncover a possible important link to solar rotation. Because the 27-day variations in the solar forcing parameters such as solar ultraviolet and galactic cosmic rays become more prominent when the solar activity is high, it is expected that the signal of the 27-day period in meteorological phenomena may wax and wane according to the changes in the solar activity level. In this study, we examine in detail the intensity variations in the signal of the 27-day solar rotational period in thunder and lightning activity from the 18th to the 19th centuries based on 150-year-long records found in old diaries kept in Japan and discuss their relation with the solar activity levels. Such long records enable us to examine the signals of solar rotation at both high and low solar activity levels. We found that the signal of the solar rotational period in the thunder and lightning activity increases as the solar activity increases. In this study, we also discuss the possibility of the impact of the long-term climatological conditions on the signals of the 27-day period in thunder/lightning activities.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust-climate feedbacks.

PubMed

Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice

2018-02-27

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial-interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust-climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust-climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial-interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust-climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial-interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust‑climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice

2018-03-01

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial‑interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust‑climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust‑climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial‑interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust‑climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial‑interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust−climate feedbacks

PubMed Central

Lambert, Fabrice

2018-01-01

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial−interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust−climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust−climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial−interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust−climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial−interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. PMID:29440407

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William Dean

2012-01-01

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, A. L.

1978-01-01

Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.

The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing.

PubMed

Stuber, Nicola; Forster, Piers; Rädel, Gaby; Shine, Keith

2006-06-15

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect, although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate. Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds. Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive. Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Observed Responses of Mesospheric Water Vapor to Solar Cycle and Dynamical Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remsberg, Ellis; Damadeo, Robert; Natarajan, Murali; Bhatt, Praful

2018-04-01

This study focuses on responses of mesospheric water vapor (H2O) to the solar cycle flux at Lyman-α wavelength and to dynamical forcings according to the multivariate El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The zonal-averaged responses are for latitudes from 60°S to 60°N and pressure-altitudes from 0.01 to 1.0 hPa, as obtained from multiple linear regression analyses of time series of H2O from the Halogen Occultation Experiment for July 1992 to November 2005. The results compare very well with those from a separate simultaneous temporal and spatial (STS) method that also confirms that there are no significant sampling biases affecting both sets of results. Distributions of the seasonal amplitudes for temperature and H2O are in accord with the seasonal net circulation. In general, the responses of H2O to ENSO are anticorrelated with those of temperature. H2O responses to multivariate ENSO index are negative in the upper mesosphere and largest in the Northern Hemisphere; responses in the lower mesosphere are more symmetric with latitude. H2O responses to the Lyman-α flux (Lya) vary from strong negative values in the uppermost mesosphere to very weak, positive values in the tropical lowermost mesosphere. However, the effects of those H2O responses to the solar activity extend to the rest of the mesosphere via dynamical processes. Profiles of the responses to ENSO and Lya also agree reasonably with published results for H2O at the low latitudes from the Microwave Limb Sounder.

FUPSOL: Modelling the Future and Past Solar Influence on Earth Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.

2012-04-01

Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unacceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions. This project aims at elucidating the processes governing the effects of solar activity variations on Earth's climate. We use the state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM) SOCOL (Schraner et al, 2008) developed in Switzerland by coupling the community Earth System Model (ESM) COSMOS distributed by MPI for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) with a comprehensive atmospheric chemistry module. The model solves an extensive set of equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean, radiative transfer, transport of species, their chemical transformations, cloud formation and the hydrological cycle. The intention is to show how past solar variations affected climate and how the decrease in solar forcing expected for the next decades will affect climate on global and regional scales. We will simulate the global climate system behavior during Dalton minimum (1790 and 1830) and first half of 21st century with a series of multiyear ensemble experiments and perform these experiments using all known anthropogenic and natural climate forcing taken in different combinations to understand the effects of solar irradiance in different spectral regions and particle precipitation variability. Further on, we will quantify the solar influence on global climate in the future by evaluating the simulations and using information from past analogs such as the Dalton minimum. In the end, the project aims at reducing the uncertainty of the solar contribution to past and future climate change, which so far remained high despite many years of analyses of observational records and theoretical investigations with climate models of different complexity.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

PERSPECTIVE: Low solar activity is blamed for winter chill over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, Rasmus E.

2010-06-01

Throughout recent centuries, there have been a large number of studies of the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of climate, and yet this question is still not entirely settled. In a recent study, Lockwood et al (2010) argue that the occurrence of persistent wintertime blocking events (periods with persistent high sea level pressure over a certain region) over the eastern Atlantic, and hence chilly winters over northern Europe, are linked to low solar activity. Is this then a breakthrough in our understanding of our climate? The Wolf sunspot number, which dates back to Galileo's invention of the telescope in the 17th century, represents one of our longest geophysical data records. Galileo was also involved in building the first barometers and thermometers around that period. Hence, the 17th century represents the start of instrumental measurements of weather and climate, and there are indeed historical records of speculations or studies on the link between changes in the sun and conditions on Earth dating from that time (Helland-Hansen and Nansen 1920). One notorious problem with many previous studies was that relationships established over the calibration interval subsequently broke down. There was a period in the mid-20th century when little work was done on solar activity and climate, but solar activity was considered a real forcing factor before 1920. With the advent of frontal theory, orbital forcing theory, and stronger awareness of the implications of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, the support for solar forcing seemed to have diminished in the climatology community by the mid-20th century (Monin 1972). But non-stationary relationships, the chaotic character of climate, weak effects, and lack of a physical understanding behind such a link, can also explain the low support for solar forcing at that time. For a long time, it was not established whether more sunspots meant a brighter or dimmer sun (the answer is brighter), and then the direct effect from changes in the solar brightness (0.1%) was estimated to be too low to explain the temperature changes on Earth. The solar influence on changes in the global mean temperature has so far been found to be weak (Lean 2010, Benestad and Schmidt 2009). The important difference between recent and early studies is, however, that the latter lacked a theoretical framework based on physical mechanisms. Now we understand that stratospheric conditions vary, and are affected by chemical reactions as well as the absorption of UV light. Furthermore, we know that such variations affect temperature profiles, wave propagations, and winds (Schindell et al 2001). Lean (2010) and Haigh (2003) provide nice reviews of recent progress on solar-terrestrial relationships, although questions regarding the quality of the oldest solar data records are still unanswered (Benestad 2005). All these studies still rely on empirical data analysis. Much of the focus of the recent work has been on climate variation on global scales. The recent paper by Lockwood et al (2010) represents current progress, albeit that they emphasize that the relationship they identify has a regional rather than global character. Indeed, they stress that a change in the global mean temperature should not be confused with regional and seasonal means. The physical picture they provide is plausible, yet empirical relationships between solar activity and any of the indices describing the north Atlantic oscillation, the Arctic oscillation or the polar vortex are regarded as weak. My impression is nevertheless that the explanation provided by the Lockwood et al (2010) study reflects real aspects of our climate, especially if the effect is asymmetric. They argue that solar-induced changes in the stratosphere in turn affect the occurrence of persistent wintertime blocking. But one comprehensive, definite, consistent, and convincing documentation of the entire chain causality is still not in place, due to the lack of long-term high-quality observations from remote sensing platforms. It is nevertheless well known that the temperature in northern Europe is strongly affected by atmospheric circulation. Crooks and Gray (2005) have identified a solar response in a number of atmospheric variables, and Labitske (1987), Labitske and Loon (1988) and Salby and Callagan (2000) provide convincing analyses suggesting that the zonal winds in the stratosphere are influenced by solar activity. Furthermore, Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001) provide a tentative link between the stratosphere and the troposphere. The results of Lockwood et al (2010) fit in with earlier work (Barriopedro et al 2008) and provide further evidence to support the current thinking on solar-terrestrial links. Thus, it is an example of incremental scientific progress rather than a breakthrough or a paradigm shift. References Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J 2001 Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes Science 294 581-4 Barriopedro D, Garcia-Herrera R and Huth R 2008 Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking J. Geophys. Res. 113 D14118 Benestad R E 2005 A review of the solar cycle length estimates Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L15714 Benestad R E and Schmidt G A 2009 Solar trends and global warming J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114 D14101 Crook S A and Gray L J 2005 Characterization of the 11-year solar signal using a multiple regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset J. Climate 18 996-1014 Haigh J D 2003 The effects of solar variability on the Earth's climate Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 361 95-111 Helland-Hansen B and Nansen F 1920 Temperature variations in the North Atlantic ocean and in the atmosphere Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections 70 (4) 408 pp Labitzke K 1987 Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the North polar region Geophys. Res. Lett. 14 535-7 Labitzke K and van Loon H 1988 Association between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere, I. The troposphere and stratosphere on the northern hemisphere winter J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 50 197-206 Lean J L 2010 Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate WIREs Climate Change 1 111-22 Lockwood M, Harrison R G, Woollings T and Solanki S K 2010 Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001 Monin A S 1972 Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Physics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) (Engl. translation from Russian) Salby M and Callagan P 2000 Connection between the solar cycle and the QBO: the missing link J. Climate 13 328-38 Shindell D T, Schmidt G A, Mann M E, Rind D and Waple A 2001 Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder minimum Science 294 2149-52

Solar Cycle 24 UV Radiation: Lowest in more than 6 Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroder, Klaus-Peter; Mittag, Marco; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.

2015-01-01

Using spectra taken by the robotic telescope ``TIGRE'' (see Fig. 1 and the TIGRE-poster presented by Schmitt et al. at this conference) and its mid-resolution (R=20,000) HEROS double-channel echelle spectrograph, we present our measurements of the solar Ca II H&K chromospheric emission. Using moonlight, we applied the calibration and definition of the Mt. Wilson S-index , which allows a direct comparison with historic observations, reaching back to the early 1960's. At the same time, coming from the same EUV emitting plage regions, the Ca II H&K emission is a good proxy for the latter, which is of interest as a forcing factor in climate models. Our measurements probe the weak, asynchronous activity cycle 24 around its 2nd maximum during the past winter. Our S-values suggest that this maximum is the lowest in chromospheric emission since at least 60 years -- following the longest and deepest minimum since a century. Our observations suggest a similarly long-term (on a scale of decades) low of the far-UV radiation, which should be considered by the next generation of climate models. The current, very interesting activity behaviour calls for a concerted effort on long-term solar monitoring.

Field chronobiology of a molluscan bivalve: how the moon and sun cycles interact to drive oyster activity rhythms.

PubMed

Tran, Damien; Nadau, Arnaud; Durrieu, Gilles; Ciret, Pierre; Parisot, Jean-Paul; Massabuau, Jean-Charles

2011-05-01

The present study reports new insights into the complexity of environmental drivers in aquatic animals. The focus of this study was to determine the main forces that drive mollusc bivalve behavior in situ. To answer this question, the authors continuously studied the valve movements of permanently immersed oysters, Crassostrea gigas, during a 1-year-long in situ study. Valve behavior was monitored with a specially build valvometer, which allows continuously recording of up to 16 bivalves at high frequency (10 Hz). The results highlight a strong relationship between the rhythms of valve behavior and the complex association of the sun-earth-moon orbital positions. Permanently immersed C. gigas follows a robust and strong behavior primarily driven by the tidal cycle. The intensity of this tidal driving force is modulated by the neap-spring tides (i.e., synodic moon cycle), which themselves depend of the earth-moon distance (i.e., anomalistic moon cycle). Light is a significant driver of the oysters' biological rhythm, although its power is limited by the tides, which remain the predominant driver. More globally, depending where in the world the bivalves reside, the results suggest their biological rhythms should vary according to the relative importance of the solar cycle and different lunar cycles associated with tide generation. These results highlight the high plasticity of these oysters to adapt to their changing environment.

Orbital pacing of carbon fluxes by a ∼9-My eccentricity cycle during the Mesozoic.

PubMed

Martinez, Mathieu; Dera, Guillaume

2015-10-13

Eccentricity, obliquity, and precession are cyclic parameters of the Earth's orbit whose climatic implications have been widely demonstrated on recent and short time intervals. Amplitude modulations of these parameters on million-year time scales induce "grand orbital cycles," but the behavior and the paleoenvironmental consequences of these cycles remain debated for the Mesozoic owing to the chaotic diffusion of the solar system in the past. Here, we test for these cycles from the Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous by analyzing new stable isotope datasets reflecting fluctuations in the carbon cycle and seawater temperatures. Our results document a prominent cyclicity of ∼9 My in the carbon cycle paced by changes in the seasonal dynamics of hydrological processes and long-term sea level fluctuations. These paleoenvironmental changes are linked to a great eccentricity cycle consistent with astronomical solutions. The orbital forcing signal was mainly amplified by cumulative sequestration of organic matter in the boreal wetlands under greenhouse conditions. Finally, we show that the ∼9-My cycle faded during the Pliensbachian, which could either reflect major paleoenvironmental disturbances or a chaotic transition affecting this cycle.

Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z.

2014-07-01

Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.

Solar Cycle Effects on the Near-Earth Space Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-06

foreign nationals. This technical report has been reviewed and is approved for publication. Publication of this report does not constitute Air Force...approval of the report’s findings or conclusions. It is published only for the exchange and stimulation of ideas. RAFAEL A. RIVIERE, Capt, USAF ONATHAN...M. EMHES , MAJ, USAF MOIE Project Officer MOIE Project Manager SSD/CNL AFSTC/WCO OL-AB UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE REPORT

ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less

Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L.

2017-09-01

We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS.

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Steenrod, Steve; Frith, Stacey

2003-01-01

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

27-day solar forcing of mesospheric temperature, water vapor and polar mesospheric clouds from the AIM SOFIE and CIPS satellite experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Gary; Thurairajah, Brentha; von Savigny, Christian; Hervig, Mark; Snow, Martin

2016-04-01

Solar cycle variations of ultraviolet radiation have been implicated in the 11-year and 27-day variations of Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) properties. Both of these variations have been attributed to variable solar ultraviolet heating and photolysis, but no definitive studies of the mechanisms are available. The solar forcing issue is critical toward answering the broader question of whether PMC's have undergone long-term changes, and if so, what is the nature of the responsible long-term climate forcings? One of the principal goals of the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite mission was to answer the question: "How does changing solar irradiance affect PMCs and the environment in which they form?" We describe an eight-year data set from the AIM Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) and the AIM Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) experiment. Together, these instruments provide high-precision measurements of high-latitude summertime temperature (T), water vapor (H2O), and PMC ice properties for the period 2007-present. The complete temporal coverage of the summertime polar cap region for both the primary atmospheric forcings of PMC (T and H2O), together with a continually updated time series of Lyman-alpha solar irradiance, allows an in-depth study of the causes and effects of 27-day PMC variability. The small responses of these variables, relative to larger day-to-day changes from gravity waves, tides, inter-hemispheric coupling, etc. require a careful statistical analysis to isolate the solar influence. We present results for the 27-day responses of T, H2O and PMC for a total of 15 PMC seasons, (30 days before summer solstice to 60 days afterward, for both hemispheres). We find that the amplitudes and phase relationships are not consistent with the expected mechanisms of solar UV heating and photolysis - instead we postulate a primarily dynamical response, in which a periodic vertical wind heats/cools the upper mesosphere, and modulates PMC properties via the strong T and H2O sensitivity of ice microphysics. We propose that the wind acting on the strong H2O gradient in the 80-85 km region causes water vapor to be vertically transported, amplifying the temperature effect. Supporting evidence of a ~27-day mode of oscillation will be presented. PMC height is also shown to have a 27-day periodicity, presumably a result of rising/falling of pressure surfaces. Implications of these results for the 11-year variability of PMC will be presented.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Solar-energy-system performance evaluation: Honeywell OTS 44, Ocmulgee, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathur, A. K.; Pederson, S.

1982-01-01

The operation and technical performance of the solar operational test site (OTS 44) are described, based on data collected between April, 1981 and August, 1981. The following topics are discussed: system description, performance assessment, operating energy, energy savings, system maintenance, and conclusions. The solar energy system at OTS 44 is a hydronic heating and cooling system consisting of 5040 square feet of liquid cooled flat plate collectors; a 4000 gallon thermal storage tank; one 25 ton capacity organic Rankine cycle engine assisted water chillers; a forced draft cooling tower; and associated piping, pumps, valves, controls and heat rejection equipment. The solar system has eight basic modes of operation and several combination modes for providing space conditioning and hot water to the building. Data monitored during the 4 months of the operational test period found that the solar system collected 285 MMBtu of thermal energy of the total incident solar energy of 1040 MMBtu and provided 210 MMBtu for cooling and 10 MMBtu for heating and hot water. The net electrical energy saving due to the solar system was approximately 2600 kWh(e), and fossil energy saving was about 20 million Btu (MMBtu).

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

How active was solar cycle 22?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

1993-01-01

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Solar forcing of Gulf of California climate during the past 2000 yr suggested by diatoms and silicoflagellates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David

2007-01-01

Cores BAM80 E-17 (27.9° N) and NH01-26 (24.3° N) contain longer-duration cycles of diatoms and silicoflagellates. The early part of Medieval Climate Anomaly (∼ A.D. 900 to 1200) is characterized by two periods of reduced productivity (warmer SST) with an intervening high productivity (cool) interval centered at ∼ A.D. 1050. Reduced productivity and higher SST also characterize the record of the last ∼ 100 to 200 yr in these cores. Solar variability appears to be driving productivity cycles, as intervals of increased radiocarbon production (sunspot minima) correlate with intervals of enhanced productivity. It is proposed that increased winter cooling of the atmosphere above southwest U.S. during sunspot minima causes intensification of the northwest winds that blow down the Gulf during the late fall to early spring, leading to intensified overturn of surface waters and enhanced productivity.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

PubMed Central

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-01-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

QBO as Potential Amplifier of Solar Cycle Influence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mangel, John G.; Wolff, Charles L.; Porter, Hayden S.

2006-01-01

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation. Salby and Callaghan (2000) in particular analyzed the QBO covering more than 40 years and found that it contains a large SC signature at 20 km. We discuss a 3D study in which we simulate the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary with height: 0.2% (surface), 2% (50 km), 20% (100 km and above). This model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to come from the SC and qualitatively agrees with the observations. The modulation of the QBO, with constant phase relative to the SC, is shown to persist at least for 50 years, and it is induced by a SC modulated annual oscillation that is hemispherically symmetric and confined to low latitudes.

Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western U.S. based on WRF chemistry and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Gustafson, W. I.; Leung, R.; Ghan, S. J.

2008-12-01

Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is an important anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and the resulting impact on snowpack and the hydrological cycle in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine the soot deposition, followed by three simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the surface net solar radiation flux during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, and reduce the snow accumulation and spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. For a doubled snow albedo perturbation, the change to surface energy and temperature is around 50-80%, however, snowpack reduction is nonlinearly accelerated.

Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Ghan, Steven J.

2009-02-01

Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is an important anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and the resulting impact on snowpack and the hydrological cycle in the western United States. A year-long simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine the soot deposition, followed by three simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the surface net solar radiation flux during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, and reduce the snow accumulation and spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow-covered regions. For a doubled snow albedo perturbation, the change to surface energy and temperature is around 50-80%; however, snowpack reduction is nonlinearly accelerated.

Ultrasonic seam welding on thin silicon solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofel, E. J.

1982-01-01

The ultrathin silicon solar cell has progressed to where it is a serious candidate for future light weight or radiation tolerant spacecraft. The ultrasonic method of producing welds was found to be satisfactory. These ultrathin cells could be handled without breakage in a semiautomated welding machine. This is a prototype of a machine capable of production rates sufficiently large to support spacecraft array assembly needs. For comparative purposes, this project also welded a variety of cells with thicknesses up to 0.23 mm as well as the 0.07 mm ultrathin cells. There was no electrical degradation in any cells. The mechanical pull strength of welds on the thick cells was excellent when using a large welding force. The mechanical strength of welds on thin cells was less since only a small welding force could be used without cracking these cells. Even so, the strength of welds on thin cells appears adequate for array application. The ability of such welds to survive multiyear, near Earth orbit thermal cycles needs to be demonstrated.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V.

2012-01-01

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk

2014-11-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less

Century to Millennium-Scale Late Quaternary Natural Climate Variability in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Peter Josef

1995-01-01

Estimates of past natural climatic variability on long time scales (centuries to millennia) are crucial in testing climate models. The process of model validation takes advantage of long general circulation model (GCM) integrations, instrumental and satellite observations, and paleoclimatic records. Here I use paleoclimatic proxy records from central North America spanning the last 150 ka to characterize climatic variability on sub-orbital time scales. A terrestrial last interglacial (~ 130 to 75 kyr BP) pollen sequence from south-central Illinois, U.S.A., contains climatic variance in frequency bands between 1 cycle/10 kyr and 1 cycle/1 kyr. The temporal variance is best developed as alternating cycles of pollen assemblages indicative of wet and dry conditions. Spectral cross-correlations between selected pollen types and potential forcings (ETP (eccentricity, tilt, precession), SPECMAP delta^{18}O) implicate oceanic and solar processes as possible mechanisms driving last interglacial vegetation and climate change in the Midwestern U.S. During the last glacial stage (LGS; 20 to 16 kyr BP) a lacustrine sequence from the central Mississippi River valley experienced major flooding events caused by intermittent melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. Rock -magnetic and grain size data confirm the physical record of flood clays. Correlation of the flood clays to the Greenland (GRIP) ice core is weak. However, the Laurentide melting events seem to fall temporally between the releases of minor LGS iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. The GRIP delta^{18}O and the Midwestern U.S. magnetic susceptibility time series indicate sub-Milankovitch climate variability modes. Mapping, multivariate, and time series analyses of Holocene (8 to 1 ka) pollen sequences from central North America suggest spatial patterns of vegetation and climate change on sub-orbital to millennial time scales. The rate, magnitude, and spatial patterns of change varied considerably over the study region. Major climatic variance contained in several well-dated pollen time series ranges between 1 cycle/6 kyr and 1 cycle/0.6 kyr. Singular and cross -spectral analyses, again, suggest solar and oceanic forcing. Although it is difficult to attribute past climatic changes to specific forcings, the geologic record of past global change will prove invaluable in the assessment of long-term future climate change and prediction.

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

What can we learn from simulating Stratospheric Sudden Warming periods with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics GCM?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.

2013-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to assess the simulations of the SSW periods and provide guidance for future studies.

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer

2009-08-01

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2014-09-01

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

Molecular Engineering for Mechanically Resilient and Stretchable Electronic Polymers and Composites

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-08

CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-13-1-0156 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6 . AUTHOR(S) Darren J. Lipomi 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER...CA 92093-0448 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9 . SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Air Force Office of Scientific...these results to produce a new type of ultra-thin, skin-wearable solar cell that could survive many cycles of deformation without degrading

Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

2003-01-01

Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula

2008-01-01

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A. Q.; Wang, J. X.; Li, J. W.; Feynman, J.; Zhang, J.

2011-10-01

Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims: We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods: We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21-23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19-23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19-23 are studied statistically. Results: Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21-23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. The latitudinal distributions of SARs display the Maunder butterfly diagrams and SARs occur preferentially in the maximum period of each solar cycle. Northern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 19 and 20 and southern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 21 and 22. In solar cycle 23, however, SARs occurred about equally in each hemisphere. There are two active longitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, about 160°-200° apart. Applying the improved dynamic reference frame to SARs, we find that SARs rotate faster than the Carrington rate and there is no significant difference between the two hemispheres. The synodic periods are 27.19 days and 27.25 days for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The longitudinal distribution of SARs is significantly non-axisymmetric and about 75% SARs occurred near two active longitudes with half widths of 45°. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reedy, R. C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity.

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

The Physics of Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, Robert L.; Taylor, Washington

2018-01-01

Part I. Basic Energy Physics and Uses: 1. Introduction; 2. Mechanical energy; 3. Electromagnetic energy; 4. Waves and light; 5. Thermodynamics I: heat and thermal energy; 6. Heat transfer; 7. Introduction to quantum physics; 8. Thermodynamics II: entropy and temperature; 9. Energy in matter; 10. Thermal energy conversion; 11. Internal combustion engines; 12. Phase-change energy conversion; 13. Thermal power and heat extraction cycles; Part II. Energy Sources: 14. The forces of nature; 15. Quantum phenomena in energy systems; 16. An overview of nuclear power; 17. Structure, properties and decays of nuclei; 18. Nuclear energy processes: fission and fusion; 19. Nuclear fission reactors and nuclear fusion experiments; 20. Ionizing radiation; 21. Energy in the universe; 22. Solar energy: solar production and radiation; 23. Solar energy: solar radiation on Earth; 24. Solar thermal energy; 25. Photovoltaic solar cells; 26. Biological energy; 27. Ocean energy flow; 28. Wind: a highly variable resource; 29. Fluids – the basics; 30. Wind turbines; 31. Energy from moving water: hydro, wave, tidal, and marine current power; 32. Geothermal energy; 33. Fossil fuels; Part III. Energy System Issues and Externalities: 34. Energy and climate; 35. Earth's climate: past, present, and future; 36. Energy efficiency, conservation, and changing energy sources; 37. Energy storage; 38. Electricity generation and transmission.

Comparison of magnetic helicity close to the sun and in magnetic clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rust, D.

Magnetic helicity is present in the solar atmosphere - as inferred from vector magnetograph measurements, solar filaments, S-shaped coronal structures known as sigmoids, and sunspot whorls. I will survey the possible solar sources of this magnetic helicity. Included are fieldline footpoint motions, effects of Coriolis forces, effects of convection, shear associated with differential rotation, and, of course, the internal dynamo. Besides the survey of possible local mechanisms for helicity generation, I will consider the global view of the flow of helicity from the sun into interplanetary space. The principal agents by which the sun sheds helicity are coronal mass ejections (CMEs). They are often associated with interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), whose fields are regularly probed with sensitive spacecraft magnetometers. MCs yield more direct measurements of helicity. They show that each MC carries helicity away from the sun. A major issue in solar-heliospheric research is whether the amount of helicity that MCs carry away in a solar cycle can be accounted for by the helicity generation mechanisms proposed so far. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Physics Program supports this work under grants NAG5- 7921 and NAG 5-11584.

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.

2012-12-01

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.

The Mars water cycle at other epochs: History of the polar caps and layered terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jakosky, Bruce M.; Henderson, Bradley G.; Mellon, Michael T.

1992-01-01

The atmospheric water cycle at the present epoch involves summertime sublimation of water from the north polar cap, transport of water through the atmosphere, and condensation on one or both winter CO2 caps. Exchange with the regolith is important seasonally, but the water content of the atmosphere appears to be controlled by the polar caps. The net annual transport through the atmosphere, integrated over long timescales, must be the driving force behind the long-term evolution of the polar caps; clearly, this feeds back into the evolution of the layered terrain. We have investigated the behavior of the seasonal water cycle and the net integrated behavior at the pole for the last 10 exp 7 years. Our model of the water cycle includes the solar input, CO2 condensation and sublimation, and summertime water sublimation through the seasonal cycles, and incorporates the long-term variations in the orbital elements describing the Martian orbit.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Mars Thermospheric Temperature Sensitivity to Solar EUV Forcing from the MAVEN EUV Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, Ed; Eparvier, Francis; Andersson, Laila; Pilinski, Marcin; Chamberlin, Phillip; Fowler, Christopher; MAVEN Extreme Ultraviolet Monitor Team, MAVEN Langmuir Probe and Waves Team

2017-10-01

Solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation is the primary heat source for the Mars thermosphere, and the primary source of long-term temperature variability. The Mars obliquity, dust cycle, tides and waves also drive thermospheric temperature variability; and it is important to quantify the role of each in order to understand processes in the upper atmosphere today and, ultimately, the evolution of Mars climate over time. Although EUV radiation is the dominant heating mechanism, accurately measuring the thermospheric temperature sensitivity to EUV forcing has remained elusive, in part, because Mars thermospheric temperature varies dramatically with latitude and local time (LT), ranging from 150K on the nightside to 300K on the dayside. It follows that studies of thermospheric variability must control for location.Instruments onboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) orbiter have begun to characterize thermospheric temperature sensitivity to EUV forcing. Bougher et al. [2017] used measurements from the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) and the Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) to characterize solar activity trends in the thermosphere with some success. However, aside from restricting measurements to solar zenith angles (SZAs) below 75 degrees, they were unable to control for latitude and LT because repeat-track observations from either instrument were limited or unavailable.The MAVEN EUV Monitor (EUVM) has recently demonstrated the capability to measure thermospheric density from 100 to 200 km with solar occultations of its 17-22 nm channel. These new density measurements are ideal for tracking the long-term thermospheric temperature variability because they are inherently constrained to either 06:00 or 18:00 LT, and the orbit has precessed to include a range of ecliptic latitudes, a number of which have been revisited multiple times over 2.5 years. In this study we present, for the first-time, measurements of thermospheric temperature sensitivity to EUV forcing derived from the EUVM measurements. These results include sensitives measured at the poles and near the equator for both terminators; therefore, we will also discuss the role of latitude on EUV temperature sensitivity.

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C.

2017-04-01

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.

Annual Cycle of Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilber, Anne C.; Smith, G. Louis; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Gupta, Shashi K.

2006-01-01

The climate of the Earth is determined by its balance of radiation. The incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes are strongly modulated by clouds, which are not well understood. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (Barkstrom and Smith, 1986) provided data from which the effects of clouds on radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) could be computed (Ramanathan, 1987). At TOA, clouds increase the reflected solar radiation, tending to cool the planet, and decrease the OLR, causing the planet to retain its heat (Ramanathan et al., 1989; Harrison et al., 1990). The effects of clouds on radiation fluxes are denoted cloud forcing. These shortwave and longwave forcings counter each other to various degrees, so that in the tropics the result is a near balance. Over mid and polar latitude oceans, cloud forcing at TOA results in large net loss of radiation. Here, there are large areas of stratus clouds and cloud systems associated with storms. These systems are sensitive to surface temperatures and vary strongly with the annual cycle. During winter, anticyclones form over the continents and move to the oceans during summer. This movement of major cloud systems causes large changes of surface radiation, which in turn drives the surface temperature and sensible and latent heat released to the atmosphere.

Order out of Randomness: Self-Organization Processes in Astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, Markus J.; Scholkmann, Felix; Béthune, William; Schmutz, Werner; Abramenko, Valentina; Cheung, Mark C. M.; Müller, Daniel; Benz, Arnold; Chernov, Guennadi; Kritsuk, Alexei G.; Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Melatos, Andrew; Wagoner, Robert V.; Trimble, Virginia; Green, William H.

2018-03-01

Self-organization is a property of dissipative nonlinear processes that are governed by a global driving force and a local positive feedback mechanism, which creates regular geometric and/or temporal patterns, and decreases the entropy locally, in contrast to random processes. Here we investigate for the first time a comprehensive number of (17) self-organization processes that operate in planetary physics, solar physics, stellar physics, galactic physics, and cosmology. Self-organizing systems create spontaneous " order out of randomness", during the evolution from an initially disordered system to an ordered quasi-stationary system, mostly by quasi-periodic limit-cycle dynamics, but also by harmonic (mechanical or gyromagnetic) resonances. The global driving force can be due to gravity, electromagnetic forces, mechanical forces (e.g., rotation or differential rotation), thermal pressure, or acceleration of nonthermal particles, while the positive feedback mechanism is often an instability, such as the magneto-rotational (Balbus-Hawley) instability, the convective (Rayleigh-Bénard) instability, turbulence, vortex attraction, magnetic reconnection, plasma condensation, or a loss-cone instability. Physical models of astrophysical self-organization processes require hydrodynamic, magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD), plasma, or N-body simulations. Analytical formulations of self-organizing systems generally involve coupled differential equations with limit-cycle solutions of the Lotka-Volterra or Hopf-bifurcation type.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.

2011-04-10

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

2015-06-01

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

Frequency variations of the earth's obliquity and the 100-kyr ice-age cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Han-Shou

1992-01-01

Changes in the earth's climate are induced by variations in the earth's orbital parameters which modulate the seasonal distribution of solar radiation. Periodicities in the geological climate record with cycles of 100, 41, and 23 kyr have been linked with changes in obliquity, eccentricity, and precession of the equinoxes. The effect of variations of eccentricity during a 100 kyr period is weak relative to the signals from obliquity and precession variations and it may therefore be expected that the 100 kyr signal in the climate record would be of low intensity. However, this signal dominates the climate record and internal nonlinear processes within the climate system have previously been proposed to account for this fact. The author shows that variations in the frequency of the obliquity cycle can give rise to strong 100-kyr forcing of climate.

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.

PubMed

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-06

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km(2) yr(-1) since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km(2) delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains ("archeological silence"). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-08-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr-1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region.

Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population

PubMed Central

Milana, Juan Pablo; Kröhling, Daniela

2015-01-01

The Paraná delta, growing at a rate of c. 2 km2 yr−1 since 6,000 yrs, is one of the most complete records of the Late Holocene in southern South America. The evolution of this 17,400 km2 delta enclosed in Plata estuary, can be tracked by a series of 343 successive coastal-ridges showing a c.11 years period, in coincidence with sunspot cycle, also found in some North Hemisphere coastal-ridge successions. The Paraná delta shifted from fluvial, to wave-dominated, and back to the present fluvial-dominated delta, in response to climate changes associated with wind activity correlating with South American glacial cycles. The wave-dominated windy period coincides with the activation of the Pampean Sand Sea, suggesting desert conditions prevailed on the Pampas between 5,300 and 1,700 yrs, in coincidence with scarce or absent pre-historic aborigine remains (“archeological silence”). Further warmer and less windy conditions allowed human repopulation. Results suggest that aside the solar forcing, both short and medium term climate changes controlled delta evolution. An important learning is that a slight cooling would turn the highly productive pampas, into that unproductive desert and, given the lack of artificial irrigation systems, changing present-day warmhouse into a cooling cycle might be economically catastrophic for the region. PMID:26246410

Solar-terrestrial effect controls seismic activity to a large extent (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duma, G.

2010-12-01

Several observational results and corresponding publications in the 20 century indicate that earthquakes in many regions happen systematically in dependence on the time of day and on the season as well. In the recent decade, studies on this topic have also been intensively performed at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna. Any natural effect on Earth which systematically appears at certain hours of the day or at a special season can solely be caused by a solar or lunar influence. And actually, statistic results on seismic activity reveal a correlation with the solar cycles. Examples of this seismic performance are shown. To gain more clarity about these effects, the three-hour magnetic index Kp, which characterizes the magnetic field disturbances, mainly caused by the solar particle radiation, the solar wind, was correlated with the seismic energy released by earthquakes over decades. Kp is determined from magnetic records of 13 observatories worldwide and continuously published by ISGI, France. It is demonstrated that a highly significant correlation between the geomagnetic index Kp and the annual seismic energy release in regions at latitudes between 35 and 60° N exists. Three regions of continental size were investigated, using the USGS (PDE) earthquake catalogue data. In the period 1974-2009 the Kp cycle periods range between 9 and 12 years, somewhat different to the sunspot number cycles of 11 years. Seismicity follows the Kp cycles with high coincidence. A detailed analysis of this correlation for N-America reveals, that the sum of released energy by earthquakes per year changes by a factor up to 100 with Kp. It is shown that during years of high Kp there happen e.g. 1 event M7, 4 events M6 and 30 events M5 per year, instead of only 10 events M5 in years with lowest Kp. Almost the same relation appears in other regions of continental size, with the same significance. The seismicity in S-America clearly follows the Kp cycles, too, and the number of events during Kp maxima is about twice that observed for N-America. For the whole of Eurasia the same becomes evident. In all three regions, the strongest earthquakes with magnitude 7 and even 8 occur during the Kp maxima. In the recent decade, several geophysical models have been tested to interpret the coupling between the solar induced geomagnetic variations and disturbances and its mechanic implications in the Earth’s lithosphere, i.e. in rupture zones. The main questions in that regard are, of course, how mechanic forces are generated by the magnetic variations and whether they are strong enough to influence the tectonic process, that is, to act as a powerful trigger mechanism, as observed. Two such models are demonstrated, which fit well the observations, and which both indicate a surprisingly high energy and mechanic stress involved in the process. They build on Lorentz forces and on the effect of magnetostriction, respectively. The effect applies in particular to strong earthquake activity as outlined above. Moreover, it is a general geodynamic process which acts in nearly all main seismic regions on the globe. Thus, the results add very novel and important aspects to the research on seismic performance, temporal trends of strong earthquake occurrence and hazard assessment.

Reading The Sun: A Three Dimensional Visual Model of The Solar Environment During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carranza-fulmer, T. L.; Moldwin, M.

2014-12-01

The sun is a powerful force that has proven to our society that it has a large impact on our lives. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of awareness on how the sun is capable of affecting Earth. The over all idea of "Reading The Sun" installation is to help demonstrate how the sun impacts the Earth, by compiling various data sources from satellites (SOHO, SDO, and STERO) with solar and solar wind models (MAS and ENLIL) to create a comprehensive three dimensional display of the solar environment. It focuses on the current solar maximum of solar cycle 24 and a CME that impacted Earth's magnetic field on February 27, 2014, which triggered geomagnetic storms around the Earth's poles. The CME was an after-effect of a class X4.9 solar flare, which was released from the sun on February 25, 2014. "Reading The Sun" is a 48" x 48" x 48" hanging model of the sun with color coded open opposing magnetic field lines along with various layers of the solar atmosphere, the heliospheric current sheet, and the inner planets. At the center of the xyz axis is the sun with the open magnetic field lines and the heliospheric current sheet permeating inner planetary space. The xyz axes are color coded to represent various types of information with corresponding visual images for the viewer to be able to read the model. Along the z-axis are three colors (yellow, orange, and green) that represent the different layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona) that correspond to three satellite images in various spectrums related to a CME and Solar Flare and the xy-plane shows where the inner planets are in relation to the sun. The exhibit in which "Reading The Sun "is being displayed is called, The Rotation of Language at the Wheather Again Gallery in Rockaway, New York. The intent of the exhibit is to both celebrate as well as present a cautionary tale on the ability of human language to spark and ignite the individual and collective imagination towards an experience simultaneously approaching the utopian as well as the dystopian.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T.

1990-09-01

From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less

A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru

An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Orbital pacing of carbon fluxes by a ∼9-My eccentricity cycle during the Mesozoic

PubMed Central

Martinez, Mathieu; Dera, Guillaume

2015-01-01

Eccentricity, obliquity, and precession are cyclic parameters of the Earth’s orbit whose climatic implications have been widely demonstrated on recent and short time intervals. Amplitude modulations of these parameters on million-year time scales induce ‟grand orbital cycles,” but the behavior and the paleoenvironmental consequences of these cycles remain debated for the Mesozoic owing to the chaotic diffusion of the solar system in the past. Here, we test for these cycles from the Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous by analyzing new stable isotope datasets reflecting fluctuations in the carbon cycle and seawater temperatures. Our results document a prominent cyclicity of ∼9 My in the carbon cycle paced by changes in the seasonal dynamics of hydrological processes and long-term sea level fluctuations. These paleoenvironmental changes are linked to a great eccentricity cycle consistent with astronomical solutions. The orbital forcing signal was mainly amplified by cumulative sequestration of organic matter in the boreal wetlands under greenhouse conditions. Finally, we show that the ∼9-My cycle faded during the Pliensbachian, which could either reflect major paleoenvironmental disturbances or a chaotic transition affecting this cycle. PMID:26417080

Stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010: The small role of solar flux variations in a CTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, Sandip; Chipperfield, Martyn; Feng, Wuhu; Ball, William; Unruh, Yvonne; Haigh, Joanna; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami

2013-04-01

Solar spectral fluxes (or irradiance) measured by the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) shows different variability at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths compared to other irradiance measurements and models (e.g. NRL, SATIRE-S). Some modelling studies have suggested that stratospheric O3 changes during solar cycle 23 (1996-2008) can only be reproduced if SORCE solar fluxes are used. We have used a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM), forced by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to simulate stratospheric O3 using 3 different solar flux datasets (SORCE, NRL-SSI and SATIRE-S). Simulated O3 changes are compared with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite data. Modelled O3 anomalies using all solar flux datasets show good agreement with the observations, despite the different flux variations. A notable feature during this period is a robust positive solar signal in the tropical middle stratosphere. The CTM reproduces these changes through dynamical information contained in the analyses. Changes in the upper stratosphere cannot be used to discriminate between solar flux datasets due to large uncertainties in the O3 observations. Overall this study suggests that the UV variations detected by SORCE are not necessary to reproduce observed stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010.

Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

The Direct Effect of Toroidal Magnetic Fields on Stellar Oscillations: An Analytical Expression for the General Matrix Element

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiefer, René; Schad, Ariane; Roth, Markus

2017-09-10

Where is the solar dynamo located and what is its modus operandi? These are still open questions in solar physics. Helio- and asteroseismology can help answer them by enabling us to study solar and stellar internal structures through global oscillations. The properties of solar and stellar acoustic modes are changing with the level of magnetic activity. However, until now, the inference on subsurface magnetic fields with seismic measures has been very limited. The aim of this paper is to develop a formalism to calculate the effect of large-scale toroidal magnetic fields on solar and stellar global oscillation eigenfunctions and eigenfrequencies.more » If the Lorentz force is added to the equilibrium equation of motion, stellar eigenmodes can couple. In quasi-degenerate perturbation theory, this coupling, also known as the direct effect, can be quantified by the general matrix element. We present the analytical expression of the matrix element for a superposition of subsurface zonal toroidal magnetic field configurations. The matrix element is important for forward calculations of perturbed solar and stellar eigenfunctions and frequency perturbations. The results presented here will help to ascertain solar and stellar large-scale subsurface magnetic fields, and their geometric configuration, strength, and change over the course of activity cycles.« less

The Direct Effect of Toroidal Magnetic Fields on Stellar Oscillations: An Analytical Expression for the General Matrix Element

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, René; Schad, Ariane; Roth, Markus

2017-09-01

Where is the solar dynamo located and what is its modus operandi? These are still open questions in solar physics. Helio- and asteroseismology can help answer them by enabling us to study solar and stellar internal structures through global oscillations. The properties of solar and stellar acoustic modes are changing with the level of magnetic activity. However, until now, the inference on subsurface magnetic fields with seismic measures has been very limited. The aim of this paper is to develop a formalism to calculate the effect of large-scale toroidal magnetic fields on solar and stellar global oscillation eigenfunctions and eigenfrequencies. If the Lorentz force is added to the equilibrium equation of motion, stellar eigenmodes can couple. In quasi-degenerate perturbation theory, this coupling, also known as the direct effect, can be quantified by the general matrix element. We present the analytical expression of the matrix element for a superposition of subsurface zonal toroidal magnetic field configurations. The matrix element is important for forward calculations of perturbed solar and stellar eigenfunctions and frequency perturbations. The results presented here will help to ascertain solar and stellar large-scale subsurface magnetic fields, and their geometric configuration, strength, and change over the course of activity cycles.

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.

1982-01-01

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi

2015-02-01

The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less

Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay

2014-05-01

It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the variations of CR in the 11 year solar cycle. Checking an assumptions (ii), it is found that during the period from 1973 to 2010, the twenty earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 occurred in the seismic areas, where geomagnetic force lines L=2.0 -2.2 are loaned into the earth's crust. Surprisingly, all of these strong earthquakes occurred only at declining phase of the 11 year solar cycle, while were absent at ascending phase. This result proves an expectation (ii) and can be taken into account for forecasting strong earthquake occurrence in the seismic areas where the crust is riddled with geomagnetic field lines L= ~ 2.0. In conclusion: the results support a modern idea that earthquake occurrence is related to operation of global electric circuit, but more research are required to study this problem in more details.

Solar Energy Task Force Report: Technical Training Guidelines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, Kevin

This task force report offers guidelines and information for the development of vocational education programs oriented to the commercial application of solar energy in water and space heating. After Section I introduces the Solar Energy Task Force and its activities, Section II outlines the task force's objectives and raises several issues and…

Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu

2017-12-01

Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering.

EDITORIAL: The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Liepert, Beate

2010-06-01

Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009). The link between radiation balance and hydrological cycle Globally, precipitation can be approximated by surface evaporation, since the variability of the atmospheric moisture storage is negligible. This is the case because the fluxes are an order of magnitude larger than the atmospheric storage (423 x 1012 m3 year-1 versus 13 x 1012 m3 according to Baumgartner and Reichel (1975)), the latter being determined by temperature (Clausius-Clapeyron). Hence the residence time of evaporated water in the atmosphere is not more than a few days, before it condenses and falls back to Earth in the form of precipitation. Any change in the globally averaged surface evaporation therefore implies an equivalent change in precipitation, and thus in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The process of evaporation requires energy, which it obtains from the surface radiation balance (also known as surface net radiation), composed of the absorbed solar and net thermal radiative exchanges at the Earth's surface. Globally averaged, this surface radiation balance is positive, since radiative absorption, scattering and emission in the climate system act to generate an energy surplus at the surface and an energy deficit in the atmosphere (Liepert 2010). Evaporation, or more precisely its energy equivalent, the latent heat flux, is the main process that compensates for this imbalance between surface and atmosphere, since the latent heat dominates the convective energy flux over sensible heating. The radiative energy surplus at the surface is thus mainly consumed by evaporation and moist convection and subsequently released in the atmosphere through condensation. This implies that any alterations in the available radiative energy will induce changes in the water fluxes. Our focus in this editorial is therefore on the surface radiation balance as the principal driver of the global hydrological cycle. Note that this energetic view is in agreement with that of Richter and Xie (2008) who argue that the spatial and temporal behaviour of the process of evaporation is controlled by surface and atmospheric properties such as atmospheric stability, wind speed, moisture deficit and moisture availability. From radiation theory it is expected that with increasing radiative absorption due to abundance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and consequent warming, the emission of thermal energy from the atmosphere towards the surface is increasing (known as downward thermal radiation). This enhances the radiative energy surplus at the surface, and, where surface water is not limited, fuels evaporation besides warming the Earth's surface. The enhanced greenhouse effect therefore tends to accelerate the hydrological cycle, as also shown in many climate model simulations with increasing levels of greenhouse gases (e.g., IPCC 2007, but also see Yang et al 2003, Andrews et al 2009). We can assume that the increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial times had already led to a substantial increase of downward thermal radiation during the 20th century, even though direct observational evidence is sparse and restricted to the latter part of the century (Philipona et al 2004, Wild et al 2008). Precipitation records averaged over global land surfaces indicate an overall, albeit not significant, increase in precipitation and intensification of the hydrological cycle over the 20th century (Trenberth et al 2007), in line with the aforementioned surface energy gain from the increased greenhouse gases and related downward thermal radiation. However, the observations show also that precipitation has not simply followed the increasing greenhouse gas forcing, but has undergone strong decadal variations, with extended periods of both increases and decreases. This is evident in figure 1(a), which shows global land precipitation over the 20th century as determined from the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN; Peterson and Vose 1997, see also Trenberth et al 2007, figure 3.12). An increase in precipitation can be noted in the 1940s, followed by an overall decrease until the mid-1980s, and a renewed increase more recently. Figure 1 Figure 1. Observed terrestrial precipitation anomalies (a) and the longest observational surface solar radiation record measured in Stockholm (b) covering the period 1923-2000 (annual means). The 11-year running means are given in blue. Precipitation data from GHCN, radiation data from GEBA. However, not only greenhouse-gas-induced thermal radiation changes, but also solar radiation, as a result of changes in the atmospheric transmission, can alter the surface radiation balance and thus the amount of energy available to drive the hydrological cycle. Solar forcings may be even more efficient in modifying the intensity of the hydrological cycle than thermal forcings, as indicated by a higher hydrological sensitivity (e.g., Allen and Ingram 2002, Liepert et al 2004). The hydrological sensitivity, defined as change of precipitation per unit temperature change, is found to be 2-3 times larger under solar forcings than under thermal forcings (Liepert et al 2004, Andrews et al 2009). This is related to the fact that solar forcings apply at the surface directly because of the high solar transparency of the atmosphere compared to thermal radiation. Solar forcings thus effectively alter the surface radiation balance and the associated imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents, which needs to be compensated for by convective fluxes and related evaporation/precipitation. Greenhouse-gas-induced thermal forcings, on the other hand, heat the atmosphere directly through radiative absorption and the surface indirectly through downward thermal radiation. Thermal forcings are therefore less effective in strengthening the imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents. Hence the required changes in the compensational convective fluxes and associated evaporation/precipitation are smaller (equation (4) in Liepert and Previdi 2009). The different effects of solar and thermal forcings become particularly evident in the direct (fast) response of the hydrological cycle to them, while the subsequent longer-term response of the hydrological cycle, including all feedbacks induced by these forcings, is similar between the two forcing mechanisms (Andrews et al 2009, Lambert and Webb 2008). The direct effect of doubling of CO2 concentration reduces the precipitation increase in climate models by about 25% (Lambert and Webb 2008), while such compensational effects do not apply with solar forcings. Recent evidence suggests that the amount of solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (hereafter referred to as downward solar radiation) has indeed not been stable over time but has undergone significant variations on decadal timescales. This evidence comes from the networks of surface radiation measurements taken around the globe which became operational on a widespread basis during the 1950s. Specifically, the measurements show a predominant decrease in downward solar radiation from the 1950s up to the 1980s (known as 'global dimming') and a partial recovery thereafter at many of the sites (known as 'brightening') (e.g., Gilgen et al 1998, Stanhill and Cohen 2001, Liepert 2002, Wild et al 2005, Wild 2009a). The consecutive downward and upward trends have at least to some extent been attributed to increasing and decreasing air pollution, respectively (Streets et al 2009), apart from the natural inter-decadal variability of cloudiness and volcanic eruptions. The longest observational records show in addition a tendency for an increase in downward solar radiation in the first part of the 20th century ('early brightening'). An illustrative example is given in figure 1(b), which depicts the longest continuous record of downward solar radiation measured in Stockholm. This series, starting in 1923, shows an increase in the 1930s and 1940s, an overall decrease from the 1950s up to the 1980s and a more recent recovery. This evolution is, surprisingly, at least qualitatively similar to the global land precipitation record shown in figure 1(a). Although a comparison of a radiation time series measured at a single station with a global land-averaged precipitation time series is by no means representative, it may illustrate the above point of a potential close link between decadal variations of surface radiation and precipitation. Attempts have been made to infer decadal changes in the surface radiation balance based on both modelling and observational approaches. Liepert et al (2004) analyzed equilibrium experiments with a climate model with greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations representative for mid-1880s and mid-1980s conditions, respectively. They noted a decrease in absorbed solar radiation at the surface of 3.8 Wm-2 globally, mainly due to the aerosol direct and indirect effects, which are larger than the increased greenhouse effect of 1.9 Wm-2. This resulted in a reduction of net surface radiation of 1.9 Wm-2 globally, and a related spin down of the simulated hydrological cycle. Wild et al (2004), based on observational evidence, estimated that the decrease in downward solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s may have overcompensated the increase in the greenhouse-gas-induced downward thermal radiation during the same period, thus implying a decrease in the surface radiation balance over this period. This fits well with the overall decrease in global terrestrial precipitation between the 1950s and 1980s seen in figure 1(a). This decrease is on the order of 30-40 mm, which corresponds to roughly 3 Wm-2 latent heat equivalent, and which would imply a similar decrease in surface net radiation. Assuming further a decreasing net surface thermal cooling of -1 Wm-2 over this period (Wild et al 2004), this would require an overall decline of about 4 Wm-2 in surface solar radiation to balance it, which is not unrealistic. Since the 1980s, however, there are indications that downward solar radiation overall has recovered and contributed to the increase in the radiative imbalance at the surface, which had increased already due to the increasing downward thermal radiation (Wild et al 2008, see also figure 1(b). This increase in the surface radiation balance, estimated at 2 Wm-2 decade-1 in Wild et al (2008), fits the observational evidence for a recent increase in terrestrial precipitation and associated intensification of the hydrological cycle (figure 1(a)). Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance is therefore a key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. Surface radiation balance and the hydrological cycle in climate models A number of recent studies have pointed out that climate models driven with all known historical forcings simulate smaller changes in precipitation than observed over recent decades (Zhang et al 2007, Wentz et al 2007, Allan and Soden 2007, Liepert and Previdi 2009, Wild et al 2008, Wild 2009a), and may underestimate the increase in precipitation extremes with global warming (Allan and Soden 2008). For the present study, in figure 2 we compare precipitation changes during the 20th century over land surfaces as observed (blue lines, equivalent to figure 1(a)) and simulated by 18 individual coupled atmosphere-ocean models (CMIP3 models) used in the IPCC-AR4 report (in red). Shown are annual anomalies with respect to the 20th century means (dashed lines) as well as superimposed 11-year running means (solid lines) that highlight the decadal variations in both models and observations. None of the models captures the observed decadal variations during the 20th century. Particularly, none of the models qualitatively reproduces the sequence of increase in the 1930s/1940s, decrease from 1950s to the 1980s and renewed increase to 2000, and the correlations between observations and models are insignificant. Standard deviations of the 11-year running means, indicative of the amplitude of decadal variations in the 20th century annual precipitation, amount to 10.7 mm in the GHNC observations and 5.0 mm on average in the models (with a range from 2.6 mm to 10.6 mm). The closest standard deviation to the observations with 10.6 mm is found in the miroc_medres model simulation; however this simulation does not reproduce the main temporal characteristics of the observed time series either (figure 2). Thus, none of the models is capable of simulating the full extent and temporal evolution of decadal variations in 20th century terrestrial precipitation (see also Liepert and Previdi 2009). Here we argue that, among other possibilities, inadequacies in the simulation of surface radiation balance may contribute to the poor simulation of decadal variations in precipitation during the 20th century seen in figure 2. A closer lookat the simulated evolution of the radiation balance over land surfaces during the 20th century seems to confirm this. Specifically, only half of the models qualitatively reproduce the decrease in the terrestrial surface radiation balance between the 1950s and 1980s and the subsequent recovery as indicated in estimates based on observations. Quantitatively, from 1950 to 1985, the linear change in the model-calculated surface radiation balance is on average almost zero, as opposed to the observational evidence for declining surface radiation balance over this period (Wild et al 2004). Over the period 1985-2000, the multi-model mean amounts to an increase of 0.22 Wm-2 decade-1 (with a range from -0.10 to 0.57 Wm-2 decade-1, which is an order of magnitude smaller than for example the estimate given in Wild et al (2008). Figure 2 Figure 2. Terrestrial precipitation anomalies during the 20th century as observed (in blue) and simulated by various models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) (in red). Annual mean time series given as dashed lines, 11-year running means as solid lines. Reference period is the entire 20th century. Annual precipitation observations from GHCN (Peterson and Vose 1997), units mm. Truly global observational estimates of precipitation changes (covering both land and oceans) exist only since 1987 with the advent of satellite data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Based on these observations, Wentz et al (2007) determined an increase in global mean precipitation of 13.2 +/- 4.8 mm yr-1 decade-1 over the period 1987-2006. To induce such an increase, which corresponds to a latent heat release of approximately 1 Wm-2 per decade, an increase in the globally averaged surface radiation balance of at least the same amount would be required accordingly. We obtained this estimate under the assumption of (1) an unchanged sensible heat flux and (2) an unchanged top of atmosphere radiation balance and corresponding surface heat uptake by the ocean and landmasses, so that globally the change in surface net radiation is balanced by the change in latent heat flux. Regarding assumption (1), the global mean sensible heat flux is an order of magnitude smaller than the latent heat flux, and therefore even large relative changes in sensible heating would be small in absolute terms. Assumption (2) is a conservative assumption and can be considered an upper limit because ocean and land heat uptake has likely subtracted a portion of the radiative energy available for evaporation (see, e.g., Hansen et al 2005) over recent decades. Therefore, if the Wentz et al (2007) estimated precipitation increase is unbiased, this would likely require a global mean surface radiation increase of more than 1 Wm-2 per decade (cf also the estimated 2 Wm-2 per decade increase in surface net radiation over land surfaces in Wild et al (2008)). Current climate models, on the other hand, show a much smaller average increase of less than 0.3 Wm-2 per decade. The underestimation of decadal scale variations in downward solar radiation and a lack of dimming and brightening in the models (Romanou et al 2007, Bodas-Salcedo et al 2008, Wild 2009b, Ruckstuhl and Norris 2009) could have affected the simulations of the surface radiation balance. While the response to the gradually increasing greenhouse gases in the thermal component of the surface energy balance is well understood and adequately simulated, much more uncertainties are apparent in the solar component. Since the hydrological cycle may respond particularly sensitive to non-homogeneous short-living types of solar forcings such as aerosols (see discussion above), the identification of the origins of the uncertainties in the solar forcings is of primary importance for predicting future changes. Uncertainties may be related to weaknesses in three areas: (1) Deficiencies in the parameterization of the relevant processes: aerosol-cloud interactions are still poorly understood and related model representations are subject to considerable uncertainties or entirely neglected. Note that only few models include the effects of aerosols on clouds, which dominate the hydrological response as shown in Romanou et al (2007). Furthermore, many models only consider the temporal variations in scattering sulphur aerosol and neglect changes in other aerosol types such as absorbing black carbon or desert dust, which would enhance the degree of freedom of aerosol-cloud interactions and change the stability of the atmosphere. (2) Uncertainties in the highly variable spatial and temporal distributions of global aerosol fields used in the 20th century simulations as e.g. shown by Ruckstuhl and Norris (2009). Also, most models still prescribe fixed spatial aerosol burdens in the atmosphere, rather than aerosol and aerosol precursor emission fields, which could enhance the degree of freedom of the global aerosol system. (3) Shortcomings in the representation of the natural variability in atmosphere/ocean exchanges of energy and water that result in variations of convection and consequently in cloudiness and humidity. For example state-of-the-art climate models do not realistically reproduce decadal variations in the ocean atmosphere system such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that may have significant effects. Conclusions To summarize, we emphasize the prominent role of the surface radiation balance as a key determinant of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. There are indications that the surface radiation balance underwent significant decadal variations during the 20th century, which are reflected in the variations of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The current generation of climate models does not show such strong variability in either of these quantities. Here we point to the inadequate representation of surface solar dimming and brightening as a potential cause of these model deficiencies. This is further supported by the recent evidence that solar forcings are more effective in altering the intensity of the global hydrological cycle than their thermal (greenhouse-gas-forced) counterparts. Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance as well as their underlying forcing factors are therefore key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. The recent implementation of advanced space-borne and surface-based monitoring systems should allow for more rigorous constraints of the radiative drivers behind the hydrological cycle. Together with improved modelling capabilities, including sophisticated interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics schemes, these advances should result in more realistic simulations and predictions of the intensity of the hydrological cycle in the near future. Acknowledgements Particular thanks go to Professor Christoph Schär for his valuable input to the manuscript and for his support. Richard Allan's comments on the manuscript were highly appreciated. This study is part of the National Centre for Competence in Climate Research (NCCR Climate) project HYCLIM (Intensification of the water cycle: scenarios, processes and extremes) supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, and was further sponsored by National Aeronautics and Space Agency Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program NASA-MAP grant NNX09AV16G. We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. References Allan R P 2007 Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24-hour forecasts from ERA40 Tellus A 59 336-43 Allan R P and Soden B J 2007 Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L18705 Allan R P and Soden B J 2008 Precipitation extremes and the amplification of atmospheric warming Science 321 1481-4 Allen M R and Ingram W 2002 Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Nature 419 224-32 Andrews T, Forster P M and Gregory J M 2009 A surface energy perspective on climate change J. Climate 22 2557-70 Baumgartner A and Reichel E 1975 The World Water Balance: Mean Annual Global, Continental and Maritime Precipitation, Evaporation and Runoff (Amsterdam: Elsevier) 179 pp Bodas-Salcedo A, Ringer M A and Jones A 2008 Evaluation of the surface radiation budget in the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) J. Climate 21 4723-48 Gilgen H, Wild M and Ohmura A 1998 Means and trends of shortwave irradiance at the surface estimated from GEBA J. Climate 11 2042-61 Hansen J et al 2005 Earth's energy imbalance: confirmation and implications Science 308 1431-5 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) 996 pp Jonkman S N 2005 Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods Natural Hazards 34 151-75 Lambert F H and Webb M J 2008 Dependency of global mean precipitation on surface temperature Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L16706 Liepert B G 2002 Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990 Geophy. Res. Lett. 29 1421 Liepert B G 2010 The physical concept of climate forcing Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews—Climate Change submitted Liepert B G, Feichter J, Lohmann U and Roeckner E 2004 Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world? Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L06207 Liepert B G and Previdi M 2009 Do models and observations disagree on the rainfall response to global warming? J. Climate 22 3156-66 Ohmura A and Wild M 2002 Is the hydrological cycle accelerating? Science 298 1345-6 Ramanathan V, Crutzen P J, Kiehl J T and Rosenfeld D 2001 Aerosol, climate and the hydrological cycle Science 294 2119-24 Romanou A, Liepert B, Schmidt G A, Rossow W B, Ruedy R A and Zhang Y 2007 20th century changes in surface solar irradiance in simulations and observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L05713 Peterson T C and Vose R S 1997 An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 2837-49 Philipona R, Dürr B, Marty C, Ohmura A and Wild M 2004 Radiative forcing—measured at Earth's surface—corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L03202 Richter I and Xie S-P 2008 Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: a surface evaporation perspective J. Geophys. Res. 113 D24118 Ruckstuhl C and Norris J 2009 How do aerosol histories affect solar 'dimming' and 'brightening' over Europe? IPCC-AR4 models versus observations J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D04 Stanhill G and Cohen S 2001 Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation Agri. Forest Meteorol. 107 255-78 Streets D G, Yan F, Chin M, Diehl T, Mahowald N, Schultz M, Wild M, Wu Y and Yu C 2009 Discerning human and natural signatures in regional aerosol trends, 1980-2006 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D18 Trenberth K E et al 2007 Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Wentz F J, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K and Mears C 2007 How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317 233-35 Wild M 2009a Global dimming and brightening: a review J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D16 Wild M 2009b How well do IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 climate models simulate global dimming/brightening and twentieth- century daytime and nighttime warming? J. Geophys. Res. 114 D00D11 Wild M, Grieser J and Schär C 2008 Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect support recent intensification of the global land-based hydrological cycle Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L17706 Wild M, Ohmura A, Gilgen H and Rosenfeld D 2004 On the consistency of trends in radiation and temperature records and implications for the global hydrological cycle Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L11201 Wild M et al 2005 From dimming to brightening: decadal changes in surface solar radiation Science 308 847-50 Yang F, Kumar A, Schlesinger M E and Wang W 2003 Intensity of hydrological cycles in warmer climates J. Climate 16 2419-23 Zhang X et al 2007 Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends Nature 448 461-5

An Empirical Modification of the Force Field Approach to Describe the Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays Close to Earth in a Broad Range of Rigidities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gieseler, J.; Heber, B.; Herbst, K.

2017-11-01

On their way through the heliosphere, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by various effects before they can be detected at Earth. This process can be described by the Parker equation, which calculates the phase space distribution of GCRs depending on the main modulation processes: convection, drifts, diffusion, and adiabatic energy changes. A first-order approximation of this equation is the force field approach, reducing it to a one-parameter dependency, the solar modulation potential ϕ. Utilizing this approach, it is possible to reconstruct ϕ from ground-based and spacecraft measurements. However, it has been shown previously that ϕ depends not only on the local interstellar spectrum (LIS) but also on the energy range of interest. We have investigated this energy dependence further, using published proton intensity spectra obtained by PAMELA and heavier nuclei measurements from IMP-8 and ACE/CRIS. Our results show severe limitations at lower energies including a strong dependence on the solar magnetic epoch. Based on these findings, we will outline a new tool to describe GCR proton spectra in the energy range from a few hundred MeV to tens of GeV over the last solar cycles. In order to show the importance of our modification, we calculate the global production rates of the cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be which is a proxy for the solar activity ranging back thousands of years.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.

2016-12-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

PubMed

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Chan, Kwing L.; Porter, Hayden S.

2005-01-01

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan analyzed the QBO observations covering more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. This model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and the results are robust and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T.

1980-01-01

Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types.

The effects of solarization on the performance of a gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homann, Christiaan; van der Spuy, Johan; von Backström, Theodor

2016-05-01

Various hybrid solar gas turbine configurations exist. The Stellenbosch University Solar Power Thermodynamic (SUNSPOT) cycle consists of a heliostat field, solar receiver, primary Brayton gas turbine cycle, thermal storage and secondary Rankine steam cycle. This study investigates the effect of the solarization of a gas turbine on its performance and details the integration of a gas turbine into a solar power plant. A Rover 1S60 gas turbine was modelled in Flownex, a thermal-fluid system simulation and design code, and validated against a one-dimensional thermodynamic model at design input conditions. The performance map of a newly designed centrifugal compressor was created and implemented in Flownex. The effect of the improved compressor on the performance of the gas turbine was evident. The gas turbine cycle was expanded to incorporate different components of a CSP plant, such as a solar receiver and heliostat field. The solarized gas turbine model simulates the gas turbine performance when subjected to a typical variation in solar resource. Site conditions at the Helio100 solar field were investigated and the possibility of integrating a gas turbine within this system evaluated. Heat addition due to solar irradiation resulted in a decreased fuel consumption rate. The influence of the additional pressure drop over the solar receiver was evident as it leads to decreased net power output. The new compressor increased the overall performance of the gas turbine and compensated for pressure losses incurred by the addition of solar components. The simulated integration of the solarized gas turbine at Helio100 showed potential, although the solar irradiation is too little to run the gas turbine on solar heat alone. The simulation evaluates the feasibility of solarizing a gas turbine and predicts plant performance for such a turbine cycle.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

2016-07-01

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model with prescribed sea surface temperatures. We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperature anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

2016-01-01

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperature anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings.

PubMed

Aquila, V; Swartz, W H; Waugh, D W; Colarco, P R; Pawson, S; Polvani, L M; Stolarski, R S

2016-07-16

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990's is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings

PubMed Central

Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

2018-01-01

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979–2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979–1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990’s is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years. PMID:29593948

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

PREFACE: Eclipse on the Coral Sea: Cycle 24 Ascending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cally, Paul; Erdélyi, Robert; Norton

2013-06-01

A total solar eclipse is the most spectacular and awe-inspiring astronomical phenomenon most people will ever see in their lifetimes. Even hardened solar scientists draw inspiration from it. The eclipse with 2 minutes totality in the early morning of 14 November 2012 (local time) drew over 120 solar researchers (and untold thousands of the general public) to the small and picturesque resort town of Palm Cove just north of Cairns in tropical north Queensland, Australia, and they were rewarded when the clouds parted just before totality to reveal a stunning solar display. Eclipse photograph The eclipse was also the catalyst for an unusually broad and exciting conference held in Palm Cove over the week 12--16 November. Eclipse on the Coral Sea: Cycle 24 Ascending served as GONG 2012, LWS/SDO-5, and SOHO 27, indicating how widely it drew on the various sub-communities within solar physics. Indeed, as we neared the end of the ascending phase of the peculiar Solar Cycle 24, it was the perfect time to bring the whole community together to discuss our Sun's errant recent behaviour, especially as Cycle 24 is the first to be fully observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The whole-Sun perspective was a driving theme of the conference, with the cycle probed from interior (helioseismology), to atmosphere (the various lines observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assemble (AIA) aboard SDO, the several instruments on Hinode, and other modern observatories), and beyond (CMEs etc). The quality of the presentations was exceptional, and the many speakers are to be commended for pitching their talks to the broad community present. These proceedings draw from the invited and contributed oral presentations and the posters exhibited in Palm Cove. They give an (incomplete) snapshot of the meeting, illustrating its broad vistas. The published contributions are organized along the lines of the conference sessions, as set out in the Contents, leading off with a provocative view of Cycle 24 thus far from Sarbani Basu. Other invited papers presented here include an appreciation of Hinode's view of solar activity as the cycle rises by Toshifumi Shimizu; a first taxonomy of magnetic tornadoes and chromospheric swirls by Sven Wedemeyer {\\it et al}; an analysis of Hinode/EIS observations of transient heating events; a timely re-examination of solar dynamo theory by Paul Charbonneau; an exciting teaser for the solar potential of the Murchison Widefield Array now operating in Western Australia by Steven Tingay {\\it et al}; an overview and critique of the state of nonlinear force-free magnetic field extrapolation theory and practice by Mike Wheatland and Stuart Gilchrist; and a masterful review of atmospheric MHD wave coupling to the Sun's internal p-mode oscillations by Elena Khomenko and Irantzu Calvo Santamaria. The many contributed papers published here are no less exciting. All papers have been refereed to a high standard. The editors thank all the referees, drawn both from conference attendees and the wider community, who have taken their tasks very seriously and provided very detailed and helpful reports. Nearly all contributions have been substantially improved by the process. We must also thank our financial sponsors. Both the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) and LWS/SDO were generous in their support, as were the School of Mathematical Sciences and the Monash Centre for Astrophysics (MoCA) at Monash University, Melbourne, and the Centre for Astronomy at James Cook University, Townsville. The Local Organizing Committee and the many students who assisted before and during the conference also deserve high praise for facilitating such a memorable meeting. Paul Cally, Robert Erdélyi and Aimee Norton Conference photograph

An analysis of periodicities in the 1470 to 1974 Beijing precipitation record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Yeh, W. M.; Cess, R. D.; Wang, W. C.; Li, M. T.

1983-01-01

An analyis of a time series consisting of an annual index of dryness/wetness for the years 1470 to 1974 in Beijing, China is presented. Its power spectrum shows that dominant cycles occur with long periods of the order of 80 years. Cycles with periods of 11 and 22 years are weak or non-existent, but a significant signal at 18.7 years (which is also the period of a component of the lunar tide generating force) is detected. The long term variations in Beijing precipitation appear to lag long term (Gleissberg) variations in solar activity by nearly 75 years. A pattern which spans nearly 150 years in the Beijing record is found to be repeated with notable similarity.

Proposed U.S. Space Weather Budget for Fiscal Year 2011 Would Fund Key Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2010-09-01

The proposed U.S. federal budget for space weather research for fiscal year (FY) 2011 would provide funding for key space weather programs within several U.S. agencies, including NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Air Force. Funding for the programs comes ahead of the upcoming solar maximum, a period of the solar cycle with heightened solar activity, projected for 2013. Several officials indicated that while funding is not tied to a particular solar maximum or minimum, available assets could help with studying and preparing for the solar maximum. The proposed FY 2011 budget for the Heliophysics Division within NASA's Science Mission Directorate is $641.9 million, compared with the FY 2010 enacted budget of $627.4 million. Within the proposed budget is $166.9 million for heliophysics research, down slightly from $173 million for FY 2010. The proposed budget would include $31.7 million for heliophysics research and analysis (compared with $31 million for FY 2010); $66.7 million for “other missions and data analysis,” including Cluster II, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission; and $48.9 million for sounding rockets.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

PubMed

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.

2017-12-01

Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

1988-01-01

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Performance comparison of different thermodynamic cycles for an innovative central receiver solar power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes-Belmonte, Miguel A.; Sebastián, Andrés; González-Aguilar, José; Romero, Manuel

2017-06-01

The potential of using different thermodynamic cycles coupled to a solar tower central receiver that uses a novel heat transfer fluid is analyzed. The new fluid, named as DPS, is a dense suspension of solid particles aerated through a tubular receiver used to convert concentrated solar energy into thermal power. This novel fluid allows reaching high temperatures at the solar receiver what opens a wide range of possibilities for power cycle selection. This work has been focused into the assessment of power plant performance using conventional, but optimized cycles but also novel thermodynamic concepts. Cases studied are ranging from subcritical steam Rankine cycle; open regenerative Brayton air configurations at medium and high temperature; combined cycle; closed regenerative Brayton helium scheme and closed recompression supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle. Power cycle diagrams and working conditions for design point are compared amongst the studied cases for a common reference thermal power of 57 MWth reaching the central cavity receiver. It has been found that Brayton air cycle working at high temperature or using supercritical carbon dioxide are the most promising solutions in terms of efficiency conversion for the power block of future generation by means of concentrated solar power plants.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C., E-mail: xiejinglan@ynao.ac.cn

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle lengthmore » for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.« less

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

2017-06-01

CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different temperatures, enabling low temperature heat recovery from the receiver and Gas Turbine exhaust gasses.

Thermal cycle testing of Space Station Freedom solar array blanket coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheiman, David A.; Schieman, David A.

1991-01-01

Lewis Research Center is presently conducting thermal cycle testing of solar array blanket coupons that represent the baseline design for Space Station Freedom. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environment Protection (PAEP) Program, NAS 3-25079, at Lockheed Missile and Space Company. The objective of the testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. Secondary objectives include the observation and identification of potential failure modes and effects that may occur within the solar array blanket coupons as a result of thermal cycling. The objectives, test articles, test chamber, performance evaluation, test requirements, and test results are presented for the successful completion of 60,000 thermal cycles.

Design, fabrication, and characterization of multifunctional wings to harvest solar energy in flapping wing air vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Rosado, Ariel; Gehlhar, Rachel D.; Nolen, Savannah; Gupta, Satyandra K.; Bruck, Hugh A.

2015-06-01

Currently, flapping wing unmanned aerial vehicles (a.k.a., ornithopters or robotic birds) sustain very short duration flight due to limited on-board energy storage capacity. Therefore, energy harvesting elements, such as flexible solar cells, need to be used as materials in critical components, such as wing structures, to increase operational performance. In this paper, we describe a layered fabrication method that was developed for realizing multifunctional composite wings for a unique robotic bird we developed, known as Robo Raven, by creating compliant wing structure from flexible solar cells. The deformed wing shape and aerodynamic lift/thrust loads were characterized throughout the flapping cycle to understand wing mechanics. A multifunctional performance analysis was developed to understand how integration of solar cells into the wings influences flight performance under two different operating conditions: (1) directly powering wings to increase operation time, and (2) recharging batteries to eliminate need for external charging sources. The experimental data is then used in the analysis to identify a performance index for assessing benefits of multifunctional compliant wing structures. The resulting platform, Robo Raven III, was the first demonstration of a robotic bird that flew using energy harvested from solar cells. We developed three different versions of the wing design to validate the multifunctional performance analysis. It was also determined that residual thrust correlated to shear deformation of the wing induced by torsional twist, while biaxial strain related to change in aerodynamic shape correlated to lift. It was also found that shear deformation of the solar cells induced changes in power output directly correlating to thrust generation associated with torsional deformation. Thus, it was determined that multifunctional solar cell wings may be capable of three functions: (1) lightweight and flexible structure to generate aerodynamic forces, (2) energy harvesting to extend operational time and autonomy, and (3) sensing of an aerodynamic force associated with wing deformation.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

2001-08-01

At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landi, E.; Testa, P.

2014-05-20

Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. Wemore » measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles.

PubMed

Crampton, James S; Meyers, Stephen R; Cooper, Roger A; Sadler, Peter M; Foote, Michael; Harte, David

2018-05-29

Periodic fluctuations in past biodiversity, speciation, and extinction have been proposed, with extremely long periods ranging from 26 to 62 million years, although forcing mechanisms remain speculative. In contrast, well-understood periodic Milankovitch climate forcing represents a viable driver for macroevolutionary fluctuations, although little evidence for such fluctuation exists except during the Late Cenozoic. The reality, magnitude, and drivers of periodic fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates are of interest given long-standing debate surrounding the relative roles of intrinsic biotic interactions vs. extrinsic environmental factors as drivers of biodiversity change. Here, we show that, over a time span of 60 million years, between 9 and 16% of the variance in biological turnover (i.e., speciation probability plus species extinction probability) in a major Early Paleozoic zooplankton group, the graptoloids, can be explained by long-period astronomical cycles (Milankovitch "grand cycles") associated with Earth's orbital eccentricity (2.6 million years) and obliquity (1.3 million years). These grand cycles modulate climate variability, alternating times of relative stability in the environment with times of maximum volatility. We infer that these cycles influenced graptolite speciation and extinction through climate-driven changes to oceanic circulation and structure. Our results confirm the existence of Milankovitch grand cycles in the Early Paleozoic Era and show that known processes related to the mechanics of the Solar System were shaping marine macroevolutionary rates comparatively early in the history of complex life. We present an application of hidden Markov models to macroevolutionary time series and protocols for the evaluation of statistical significance in spectral analysis.

Helioseismic Observations of Two Solar Cycles and Constraints on Dynamo Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, Alexander

2018-01-01

Helioseismology data from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017 for almost two solar cycles, provide a unique opportunity to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and link these variations to the current dynamo models and simulations. The solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splitting of medium-degree p- and f-modes, as well as helioseismic inversions have been used to analyze variations of the differential rotation (“torsional oscillations”) and the global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the synoptic surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and evolution of the solar cycles, 23 and 24. The observational results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the dynamics of the tachocline and near-surface shear layer, and also may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles and detect the onset of the next cycle.

Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.

2016-12-01

The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results.

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

2014-12-01

The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay

2011-01-01

After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery.

Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

1978-01-01

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

2003-01-01

The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance.

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010: the small role of solar flux variations in a CTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, S. S.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.; Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Haigh, J. D.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Smith, A. K.

2013-05-01

Solar spectral fluxes (or irradiance) measured by the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) show different variability at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths compared to other irradiance measurements and models (e.g. NRL-SSI, SATIRE-S). Some modelling studies have suggested that stratospheric/lower mesospheric O3 changes during solar cycle 23 (1996-2008) can only be reproduced if SORCE solar fluxes are used. We have used a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM), forced by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to simulate middle atmospheric O3 using three different solar flux datasets (SORCE, NRL-SSI and SATIRE-S). Simulated O3 changes are compared with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite data. Modelled O3 anomalies from all solar flux datasets show good agreement with the observations, despite the different flux variations. The off-line CTM reproduces these changes through dynamical information contained in the analyses. A notable feature during this period is a robust positive solar signal in the tropical middle stratosphere due to changes in stratospheric dynamics. Ozone changes in the lower mesosphere cannot be used to discriminate between solar flux datasets due to large uncertainties and the short time span of the observations. Overall this study suggests that, in a CTM, the UV variations detected by SORCE are not necessary to reproduce observed stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010.

Stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010: the small role of solar flux variations in a chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, S. S.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.; Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Haigh, J. D.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Smith, A. K.

2013-10-01

Solar spectral fluxes (or irradiance) measured by the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) show different variability at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths compared to other irradiance measurements and models (e.g. NRL-SSI, SATIRE-S). Some modelling studies have suggested that stratospheric/lower mesospheric O3 changes during solar cycle 23 (1996-2008) can only be reproduced if SORCE solar fluxes are used. We have used a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM), forced by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to simulate middle atmospheric O3 using three different solar flux data sets (SORCE, NRL-SSI and SATIRE-S). Simulated O3 changes are compared with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite data. Modelled O3 anomalies from all solar flux data sets show good agreement with the observations, despite the different flux variations. The off-line CTM reproduces these changes through dynamical information contained in the analyses. A notable feature during this period is a robust positive solar signal in the tropical middle stratosphere, which is due to realistic dynamical changes in our simulations. Ozone changes in the lower mesosphere cannot be used to discriminate between solar flux data sets due to large uncertainties and the short time span of the observations. Overall this study suggests that, in a CTM, the UV variations detected by SORCE are not necessary to reproduce observed stratospheric O3 changes during 2001-2010.

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

1989-01-01

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.

2003-04-01

On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

Limestones: the love of my life - sun, sea and cycles (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, M. E.

2009-04-01

In studies of sedimentary rocks we are striving to understand the short and long-term controls on deposition that lead to the variety of facies we see in the geological record. With the development and application of sequence stratigraphy has come the realisation that in most cases the stratigraphic record is not random, but there are patterns and trends in the nature (composition, facies, diagenesis) and thickness of sedimentary units. In addition, sedimentary cycles are widely, if not ubiquitously, developed through stratigraphic successions, and do themselves vary in thickness and facies through a formation and through time. In many cases, orbital forcing is clearly a major control, in addition to longer term tectonic and tectono-eustatic processes. Understanding the major controls on the stratigraphic record and the processes involved in deposition enables us to develop a degree of prediction for the occurrence of particular facies and rock-types. This is especially significant in terms of hydrocarbon potential in frontier basins, notably in the search for source and reservoir rocks. In the case of carbonate and carbonate-evaporite successions, recent work is showing that even at the higher-frequency scale of individual beds and bed-sets, there are regular patterns and changes in thickness. These show that controls on deposition are not random but well organised. Studies of Carboniferous shelf/mid-ramp bioclastic limestones and Jurassic shallow-marine oolites from England reveal systematic variations in bed thickness, as well as oxygen isotopes, Sr and org C values. Permian lower slope carbonates from NE England show thinning-thickening-upward patterns in turbidite bed thickness on several orders of scale. Turbidity current frequency of 1 per ~200 years can be deduced from thicknesses of interbedded laminated facies, which provide the timescale. Beds in ancient shelf and slope carbonates of many geological periods are on a millennial-scale and their features and patterns clearly indicate that millennial-scale changes in climate, most likely driven by fluctuations in solar output, analogous to the D-O cycles of the Quaternary, were responsible, and that these were then modulated by orbital forcing. Solar forcing rules in carbonates, even at the highest frequency.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

Government and Public Awareness of Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanzerotti, Louis J.

2011-07-01

Solar cycle 24 continues to provide confusion in its start and its unsteady rise toward an uncertain maximum. Nevertheless, many entities, including the popular press and influential government agencies, are becoming more aware of the effects of the Sun and the near-Earth space environment on essential modern-day technologies. Within the past 6 months, news articles in the printed and digital press have included such headlines as "Solar storm delivers glancing blow to Earth—and a warning" (Christian Science Monitor, 9 June 2011), "Magnetic north pole shifts, forces runway closures at Florida airport" (http://FoxNews.com, 6 January 2011), "Major solar flare erupts, may make auroras visible in northern U.S." (SPACE.com, 10 March 2011, but picked up by FoxNews.com and Yahoo News), and "As the sun awakens, the power grid stands vulnerable" (Washington Post, 20 June 2011). All such news stories for the general public are a welcome recognition that weather in space can have important implications for human activities, including the performance—and even survivability—of some technologies.

On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H.

In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E.

1983-01-01

There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given.

Solar rotational modulations of spectral irradiance and correlations with the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-09-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Solar Rotational Modulations of Spectral Irradiance and Correlations with the Variability of Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Testing the Sun-climate Connection with Paleoclimate Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.; Howard, Matthew K.

1990-01-01

If there is a significant sun-climate connection, it should be detectable in high-resolution paleoclimate records. Of particular interest is the last few thousand years, where we have both indices of solar variability (C-14 and Be-10) and climate variations (alpine glaciers, tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.). Although there are a few exceptions, statistical analyses of solar and climate records generally indicates a flickering relationship between the two -- sometimes it seems to be present, sometimes not. The most repeatable solar climate periods occur at approx. 120 and approx. 56 yrs, although there is also evidence for approx. 420 and approx. 200 yrs. power in some records. However, coherence between solar and climate spectra is usually low, and occurrence of solar spectra in climate records is sometimes dependent on choice of analysis program. These results suggest in general a relatively weak sun-climate link on time scales of decades to centuries. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies and with the observation that inferred climate fluctuations of 1.0 to 1.5 C on this time scale would require solar constant variations of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent. This change in forcing is almost an order of magnitude greater than observed changes over the last solar cycle and appears to be on the far-outer limit of acceptable changes for a Maunder Minimum-type event.

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, L.

2013-05-01

Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented.

Experimental study of refrigeration performance based on linear Fresnel solar thermal photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinghui; Yuan, Hui; Xia, Yunfeng; Kan, Weimin; Deng, Xiaowen; Liu, Shi; Liang, Wanlong; Deng, Jianhua

2018-03-01

This paper introduces the working principle and system constitution of the linear Fresnel solar lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle, and elaborates several typical structures of absorption refrigeration cycle, including single-effect, two-stage cycle and double-effect lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle A 1.n effect absorption chiller system based on the best parameters was introduced and applied to a linear Fresnel solar absorption chiller system. Through the field refrigerator performance test, the results show: Based on this heat cycle design and processing 1.n lithium bromide absorption refrigeration power up to 35.2KW, It can meet the theoretical expectations and has good flexibility and reliability, provides guidance for the use of solar thermal energy.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

1995-01-01

A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

Thermodynamic and design considerations of organic Rankine cycles in combined application with a solar thermal gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, R.; Kusterer, K.; Sugimoto, T.; Tanimura, K.; Bohn, D.

2013-12-01

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies are considered to provide a significant contribution for the electric power production in the future. Different kinds of technologies are presently in operation or under development, e.g. parabolic troughs, central receivers, solar dish systems and Fresnel reflectors. This paper takes the focus on central receiver technologies, where the solar radiation is concentrated by a field of heliostats in a receiver on the top of a tall tower. To get this CSP technology ready for the future, the system costs have to reduce significantly. The main cost driver in such kind of CSP technologies are the huge amount of heliostats. To reduce the amount of heliostats, and so the investment costs, the efficiency of the energy conversion cycle becomes an important issue. An increase in the cycle efficiency results in a decrease of the solar heliostat field and thus, in a significant cost reduction. The paper presents the results of a thermodynamic model of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for combined cycle application together with a solar thermal gas turbine. The gas turbine cycle is modeled with an additional intercooler and recuperator and is based on a typical industrial gas turbine in the 2 MW class. The gas turbine has a two stage radial compressor and a three stage axial turbine. The compressed air is preheated within a solar receiver to 950°C before entering the combustor. A hybrid operation of the gas turbine is considered. In order to achieve a further increase of the overall efficiency, the combined operation of the gas turbine and an Organic Rankine Cycle is considered. Therefore an ORC has been set up, which is thermally connected to the gas turbine cycle at two positions. The ORC can be coupled to the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle at the intercooler and after the recuperator. Thus, waste heat from different cycle positions can be transferred to the ORC for additional production of electricity. Within this investigation different working fluids and ORC conditions have been analyzed in order to evaluate the best configuration. The investigations have been performed by application of improved thermodynamic and process analysis tools, which consider the real gas behavior of the analyzed fluids. The results show that by combined operation of the solar thermal gas turbine and the ORC, the combined cycle efficiency is approximately 4%-points higher than in the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle.

Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2010-01-01

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Water transport in limestone by X-ray CAT scanning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mossoti, Victor G.; Castanier, Louis M.

1989-01-01

The transport of water through the interior of Salem limestone test briquettes can be dynamically monitored by computer aided tomography (commonly called CAT scanning in medical diagnostics). Most significantly, unless evaporation from a particular face of the briquette is accelerated by forced air flow (wind simulation), the distribution of water in the interior of the briquette remains more or less uniform throughout the complete drying cycle. Moreover, simulated solar illumination of the test briquette does not result in the production of significant water gradients in the briquette under steady-state drying conditions.

Role of the QBO in Modulating the Influence of the 11 Year Solar Cycle on the Atmosphere Using Constant Forcings

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-21

Rolando R. Garcia ,3 Douglas E. Kinnison,3 Fabrizio Sassi,4 and Stacy Walters3 Received 26 August 2009; revised 15 April 2010; accepted 27 April 2010...constant sea surface temperatures, are discussed. Citation: Matthes, K., D. R. Marsh, R. R. Garcia , D. E. Kinnison, F. Sassi, and S. Walters (2010...Smith and Matthes, 2008] or to aliasing effects with tropical SSTs [Austin et al., 2008] and ENSO [Marsh and Garcia , 2007]. Note, however, that ENSO

Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuss, H. E.

1980-01-01

For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, Janet

2007-05-01

A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo.

Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen

2018-01-01

The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.

PHOTOMETRIC TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SOLAR CONTINUUM AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO THE CENTER-TO-LIMB PROFILE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peck, C. L.; Rast, M. P.

2015-08-01

Solar irradiance variations over solar rotational timescales are largely determined by the passage of magnetic structures across the visible solar disk. Variations on solar cycle timescales are thought to be similarly due to changes in surface magnetism with activity. Understanding the contribution of magnetic structures to total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance requires assessing their contributions as a function of disk position. Since only relative photometry is possible from the ground, the contrasts of image pixels are measured with respect to a center-to-limb intensity profile. Using nine years of full-disk red and blue continuum images from the Precision Solarmore » Photometric Telescope at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, we examine the sensitivity of continuum contrast measurements to the center-to-limb profile definition. Profiles which differ only by the amount of magnetic activity allowed in the pixels used to determine them yield oppositely signed solar cycle length continuum contrast trends, either agreeing with previous results and showing negative correlation with solar cycle or disagreeing and showing positive correlation with solar cycle. Changes in the center-to-limb profile shape over the solar cycle are responsible for the contradictory contrast results, and we demonstrate that the lowest contrast structures, internetwork and network, are most sensitive to these. Thus the strengths of the full-disk, internetwork, and network photometric trends depend critically on the magnetic flux density used in the quiet-Sun definition. We conclude that the contributions of low contrast magnetic structures to variations in the solar continuum output, particularly to long-term variations, are difficult, if not impossible, to determine without the use of radiometric imaging.« less

Latitude Distribution of Sunspots: Analysis Using Sunspot Data and a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Karak, Bidya Binay; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the equator and then (before the usual solar minimum) these two distributions touch each other. By visualizing the evolution of the distributions in two hemispheres, we separate the solar cycles by excluding this hemispheric overlap. From these isolated solar cycles in two hemispheres, we generate latitude distributions for each cycle, starting from cycle 8 to cycle 23. We find that the parameters of these distributions, namely the central latitude (C), width (δ), and height (H), evolve with the cycle number, and they show some hemispheric asymmetries. Although the asymmetries in these parameters persist for a few successive cycles, they get corrected within a few cycles, and the new asymmetries appear again. In agreement with the previous study, we find that distribution parameters are correlated with the strengths of the cycles, although these correlations are significantly different in two hemispheres. The general trend features, i.e., (i) stronger cycles that begin sunspot eruptions at relatively higher latitudes, and (ii) stronger cycles that have wider bands of sunspot emergence latitudes, are confirmed when combining the data from two hemispheres. We explore these features using a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations. We find that these features are correctly reproduced in this model. The solar cycle evolution of the distribution center is also in good agreement with observations. Possible explanations of the observed features based on this dynamo model are presented.

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, Bimal

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24 \\underline{} Abstract\\underline{} It is very important and interesting to understand the solar eruptions because it produces the geoeffectiveness in our Earth environment. In the rise phase of the solar cycle, geoeffective events are less frequent, thus this provide us better opportunity to study these events including the detection of their source regions. Keeping this in mind, we have analysed the data of rise phase of current solar cycle 24 ( 2009-2012). During above time period, we have selected 59 geoeffective events having Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index < -50 nT. Based on the Dst index, we divided the events into two categories i.e. moderate (< -50 nT > -100 nT ) and intense ( <-100 nT). To locate the solar source regions of geoeffective and SEPs associated events, we have used available images, movies and Solar Geophysical data (SGD) list: for example movies from SOHO/EIT, images and movies from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). In this study, we will discuss and compare the different properties of associated CMEs, flares and their relation with geoeffectiveness.

Integration of photovoltaic and concentrated solar thermal technologies for H2 production by the hybrid sulfur cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberatore, Raffaele; Ferrara, Mariarosaria; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca

2017-06-01

It is widely agreed that hydrogen used as energy carrier and/or storage media may significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions, especially if produced by renewable energy sources. The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) cycle is considered as one of the most promising processes to produce hydrogen through the water-splitting process. The FP7 project SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) investigates innovative material and process solutions for the use of solar heat and power in the HyS process. A significant part of the SOL2HY2 project is devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar and chemical (hydrogen production) plants. In this context, this work investigates the possibility to integrate different solar technologies, namely photovoltaic, solar central receiver and solar troughs, to optimize their use in the HyS cycle for a green hydrogen production, both in the open and closed process configurations. The analysis carried out accounts for different combinations of geographical location and plant sizing criteria. The use of a sulfur burner, which can serve both as thermal backup and SO2 source for the open cycle, is also considered.

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment. This black and white view of a solar flare was taken from the skylab remote solar experiment module mounted on top of the vehicle and worked automatically without any interaction from the crew. Solar flares or sunspots are eruptions on the sun's surface and appear to occur in cycles. When these cycles occur, there is worldwide electromagnetic interference affecting radio and television transmission.

Early Paleogene Orbital Variations in Atmospheric CO2 and New Astronomical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeebe, R. E.

2017-12-01

Geologic records across the globe show prominent variations on orbital time scales during numerous epochs going back hundreds of millions of years. The origin of the Milankovic cycles are variations in orbital parameters of the bodies of the Solar System. On long time scales, the orbital variations can not be computed analytically because of the chaotic nature of the Solar System. Thus, numerical solutions are used to estimate changes in, e.g., Earth's orbital parameters in the past. The orbital solutions represent the backbone of cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology, now widely used in geology and paleoclimatology. Hitherto only two solutions for Earth's eccentricity appear to be used in paleoclimate studies, provided by two different groups that integrated the full Solar System equations over the past >100 Myr. In this presentation, I will touch on the basic physics behind, and present new results of, accurate Solar System integrations for Earth's eccentricity over the past hundred million years. I will discuss various limitations within the framework of the present simulations and compare the results to existing solutions. Furthermore, I will present new results from practical applications of such orbital solutions, including effects of orbital forcing on coupled climate- and carbon cycle variations. For instance, we have recently revealed a mechanism for a large lag between changes in carbon isotope ratios and eccentricity at the 400-kyr period, which has been observed in Paleocene, Oligocene, and Miocene sections. Finally, I will present the first estimates of orbital-scale variations in atmospheric CO2 during the early Paleogene.

A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Charles A.

1990-01-01

Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A.

1995-05-23

A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure.

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

2008-02-01

In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lodhi, M. A. K.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.

Helioclimatology of the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurtaev, B. S.; Yakubov, M.; Shermatov, E.

2013-05-01

During the last 4 billion years, the Earth's climate has changed many times. There have been periods of warming and there have been ice ages. These large-scale climatic changes are shaped by factors like the tilt of the Earth's axis and tectonic plate movement. These major changes were driven by cyclical changes in the Earth's orbit, which altered the distribution of solar energy between the seasons and across the Earth. Milankovitch cycles explain well changes in climate over periods hundreds of thousands of years and are related to ice age cycles, but these cycles cannot explain the current rapid warming. The Sun is the most driving force for causing climate change. Much of the Sun energy evaporates water and causes atmospheric convection. Solar radiation, general circulation of atmosphere, geographical location of continents, oceans and the largest forms of a relief are the primary factors influencing on climate of lands. The purpose of this study is to identify contribution of the Sun on climate variability in the two continents, North and South America during instrumental records of air temperature. There were compared air temperatures of different weather stations in dependence from solar activity during the period 1878-1996. The high correlation between averaged temperature and solar activity was found for many weather stations of Americas. Air temperature in dependence from solar activity over the period 1878-1996 can be described by following equations: In Buenos Aires: T° = 0,04W+ 15,05, r-0,9; Caracas, Venezuela: T° = 0,03W + 18,88, r-0,73; Cordoba, Argentina: T° = 0,03W + 16,16, r-0,93; New York, Central Park: T° = 0,04W + 9,86, r-0,82; Toronto, T = 0,03W+ 6,66, r-0,81; Santiago Pudahuel, T= 0,019W + 13, 01, r - 0, 91; Rio de Janeiro:T°= 0,02W + 21,95, r= 0,88; Mexico over 1923-1986, T°= 0,021W+ 14,05, r-0,78; Miami over 1902-1996, T = 0,012W + 12,87 r-0,75; In our study, we used stations with reasonably long, consistently measured time records after GISS homogeneity adjustment from National Aeronautics and Space Administration web site.

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Prithvi Raj; Saxena, A. K.; Tiwari, C. M.

2018-04-01

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986-2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger ({˜ }130 to {˜ }190 days), quasi-period ({˜ }200 to {˜ }374 days), and quasi-biennial periodicities ({˜ }1.20 to {˜ }3.27 years) during the combined solar cycles 22-23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of {˜ }1.43 years and for solar flare index of {˜ }1.41 year, and galactic cosmic ray, {˜ }1.35 year, during combined solar cycles 22-23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22-23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (Rc = 2.43GV) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.

Adhesion mechanisms on solar glass: Effects of relative humidity, surface roughness, and particle shape and size

DOE PAGES

Moutinho, Helio R.; Jiang, Cun -Sheng; To, Bobby; ...

2017-07-27

To better understand and quantify soiling rates on solar panels, we are investigating the adhesion mechanisms between dust particles and solar glass. In this work, we report on two of the fundamental adhesion mechanisms: van der Waals and capillary adhesion forces. The adhesion was determined using force versus distance (F-z) measurements performed with an atomic force microscope (AFM). To emulate dust interacting with the front surface of a solar panel, we measured how oxidized AFM tips, SiO 2 glass spheres, and real dust particles adhered to actual solar glass. The van der Waals forces were evaluated by measurements performed withmore » zero relative humidity in a glove box, and the capillary forces were measured in a stable environment created inside the AFM enclosure with relative humidity values ranging from 18% to 80%. To simulate topographic features of the solar panels caused by factors such as cleaning and abrasion, we induced different degrees of surface roughness in the solar glass. As a result, we were able to 1) identify and quantify both the van der Waals and capillary forces, 2) establish the effects of surface roughness, relative humidity, and particle size on the adhesion mechanisms, and 3) compare adhesion forces between well-controlled particles (AFM tips and glass spheres) and real dust particles.« less

Length of the solar cycle influence on the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the length of the solar cycle on the relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship is different according to the length of the solar cycle. When the sunspot cycle is 10 or 11 years long, wintertime NAO and NHT are positively correlated, being the signal more intense during 11 years period, but when the sunspot cycle is longer (12 years) correlations between wintertime NAO and NHT are not significant. In fact there are significant negative correlations between wintertime NAO and spring NHT, with predictive potential.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curdt, W.; Fleck, B.

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B.

2003-01-01

We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle.

Catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events extending through solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paassilta, Miikka; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Siipola, Robert; Riihonen, Esa; Dierckxsens, Mark; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Heber, Bernd; Klein, Karl-Ludwig

2017-06-01

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (SOHO/ERNE). In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (Electron Proton Helium Instrument) (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis was performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s ≾ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far-eastern solar hemisphere; for instance, such an event with a well-established associated GOES flare has so far occurred three times during cycle 24 but possibly not at all during cycle 23. The generally lower level of solar activity during cycle 24, as opposed to cycle 23, has probably caused a significant decrease in total ambient pressure in the interplanetary space, leading to a larger proportion of SEP-associated halo-type CMEs. Taken together, these observations point to a qualitative difference between the two solar cycles.

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.

2013-06-20

We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less

Orbit Stability of OSIRIS-REx in the Vicinity of Bennu Using a High-Fidelity Solar Radiation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Trevor W.; Hughes, Kyle M.; Mashiku, Alinda K.; Longuski, James M.

2015-01-01

Solar radiation pressure is one of the largest perturbing forces on the OSIRISRex trajectory as it orbits the asteroid Bennu. In this work, we investigate how forces due to solar radiation perturb the OSIRIS-REx trajectory in a high-fidelity model. The model accounts for Bennu's non-spherical gravity field, third-body gravity forces from the Sun and Jupiter, as well as solar radiation forces acting on a simplified spacecraft model. Such high-fidelity simulations indicate significant solar radiation pressure perturbations from the nominal orbit. Modifications to the initial design of the nominal orbit are found using a variation of parameters approach that reduce the perturbation in eccentricity by a factor of one-half.

Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 3. Effects of Regression Procedures on the Calibration of Historic Sunspot Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.; Usoskin, I. G.

2016-11-01

We use sunspot-group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups [RB] above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower-acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number [RA] using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (r_{AB} > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot-maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of r_{AB}). In generating the backbone sunspot number [R_{BB}], Svalgaard and Schatten ( Solar Phys., 2016) force regression fits to pass through the scatter-plot origin, which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot-cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile ("Q-Q") plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least-squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot-group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar-cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldsmith, M.W.; Forbes, I.A.; Turnage, J.C.

The potential of new and future energy technologies is discussed, with information provided on availability, technical and economic feasibility, and limitations due to the form of the energy. Energy sources not presently in use (i.e., shale oil, garbage, geothermal, wind, tidal, breeder reactors, ocean thermal gradients, solar energy, and fusion) are expected to supply only 10 to 15% of the Nation's energy requirements in the year 2000. The following chapters are included: Energy Use and Supply; Extending Chemical Fuel Resources, which covers oil shale and tar sands, coal gasification and liquefaction, garbage, and biomass energy; Harnessing the Forces of Nature,more » which describes geothermal, tidal, hydro, wind, and solar energy; New Nuclear Technology (e.g., converter reactors, breeder reactors, fusion by magnetic confinement, and laser fusion); and Improving Energy Production Efficiency, with discussions on energy storage, MHD (magnetohydrodynamics), and combined cycles. (64 references) (BYB)« less

A study of the possible relation of the cardiac arrhythmias occurrence to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th.

2017-01-01

The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country.

The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, S. C.; Hill, F.

2018-05-01

In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

Simulation of climate, ice sheets and CO2 evolution during the last four glacial cycles with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganopolski, Andrey; Brovkin, Victor

2017-11-01

In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial-interglacial cycles are still not fully understood - in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400 000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Brum, C. G.

2013-05-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred in Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the XXIII solar activity cycle. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65oN) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Garnett Marques Brum, C.

2013-12-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the last solar activity cycle XXIII. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65N) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes

2018-01-01

In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition.

SUN-LIKE MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE RAPIDLY ROTATING YOUNG SOLAR ANALOG HD 30495

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egeland, Ricky; Metcalfe, Travis S.; Hall, Jeffrey C.

A growing body of evidence suggests that multiple dynamo mechanisms can drive magnetic variability on different timescales, not only in the Sun but also in other stars. Many solar activity proxies exhibit a quasi-biennial (∼2 year) variation, which is superimposed upon the dominant 11 year cycle. A well-characterized stellar sample suggests at least two different relationships between rotation period and cycle period, with some stars exhibiting long and short cycles simultaneously. Within this sample, the solar cycle periods are typical of a more rapidly rotating star, implying that the Sun might be in a transitional state or that it hasmore » an unusual evolutionary history. In this work, we present new and archival observations of dual magnetic cycles in the young solar analog HD 30495, a ∼1 Gyr old G1.5 V star with a rotation period near 11 days. This star falls squarely on the relationships established by the broader stellar sample, with short-period variations at ∼1.7 years and a long cycle of ∼12 years. We measure three individual long-period cycles and find durations ranging from 9.6 to 15.5 years. We find the short-term variability to be intermittent, but present throughout the majority of the time series, though its occurrence and amplitude are uncorrelated with the longer cycle. These essentially solar-like variations occur in a Sun-like star with more rapid rotation, though surface differential rotation measurements leave open the possibility of a solar equivalence.« less

Thermo-hydraulic actuator as a new way for conversion of solar energy in space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukhodolsky, A.T.

1998-07-01

A thermo-hydraulic actuator (THA) to directly convert the energy of continuous radiation into mechanical energy of vibration for use in power or propulsive systems in space is described. A THA consists of a chamber with an active liquid and optical fibers to deliver light energy inside. Power input comes from either argon laser or a solar concentrator 300 mm. in diameter. The principle of THA function is self-organization of a heat cycle that takes place by using a state of liquid (inversion) powered by light up to a temperature much higher than the temperature of boiling. As a result, anmore » excited state of liquid is able to form a single cavity to absorb thermal energy that is available to be converted by the non-equilibrium phase transition of first order into mechanical energy. This work stroke of a THA to form a hydraulic shock has been stimulated by non-linear mechanical motion of a single cavity and non-equilibrium phase transition of first order. The main feature of THA to accumulate energy of light in form of heat between sequential mechanical impulses gives the unique possibility to reach the motive forces induced by solar light by many order of the magnitude greater than the forces available by equilibrium radiation pressure. The first free-piston actuator (FPA) powered by solar light is also described. The construction consists of parabolic collector of diameter of 300mm and a transparent window with mounted actuator that has of a hollow piston with active liquid. Direct generation of hydraulic shocks by THA and preliminary experiments on generation of vibrations within a construction (FPA) has been proposed to be a new subject of interdisciplinary research to go from physical phenomenon observed in laser experiments to engineering development of new vibration machines powered by solar light. To conclude, a project to apply THA in new solar cosmic propulsive systems is discussed.« less

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

11- and 22-year variations of the cosmic ray density and of the solar wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirkov, N. P.

1985-01-01

Cosmic ray density variations for 17-21 solar activity cycles and the solar wind speed for 20-21 events are investigated. The 22-year solar wind speed recurrence was found in even and odd cycles. The 22-year variations of cosmic ray density were found to be opposite that of solar wind speed and solar activity. The account of solar wind speed in 11-year variations significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic rays when E = 10-20 GeV.

Structure of the Photospheric Magnetic Field During Sector Crossings of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-11-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we separately study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during Solar Cycles 21 - 24 for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976 - 2016. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle, solar cycle phase, and hemisphere. The Hale boundaries in more than half of the ascending, maximum, and declining phases are clear and statistically significant. The clearest Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd Cycles 21 and 23, but less systematical during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even Cycles 22 and 24. No similar difference between odd and even cycles is found for the (-,+) crossings. This shows that the northern hemisphere has a more organized Hale pattern overall. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon.

Study of radiatively sustained cesium plasmas for solar energy conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, A. J.; Dunning, G. J.

1980-01-01

The results of a study aimed at developing a high temperature solar electric converter are reported. The converter concept is based on the use of an alkali plasma to serve as both an efficient high temperature collector of solar radiation as well as the working fluid for a high temperature working cycle. The working cycle is a simple magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Rankine cycle employing a solid electrode Faraday MHD channel. Research milestones include the construction of a theoretical model for coupling sunlight in a cesium plasma and the experimental demonstration of cesium plasma heating with a solar simulator in excellent agreement with the theory. Analysis of a solar MHD working cycle in which excimer laser power rather than electric power is extracted is also presented. The analysis predicts a positive gain coefficient on the cesium-xenon excimer laser transition.

Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L.

1984-01-01

Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moutinho, Helio R.; Jiang, Cun -Sheng; To, Bobby

To better understand and quantify soiling rates on solar panels, we are investigating the adhesion mechanisms between dust particles and solar glass. In this work, we report on two of the fundamental adhesion mechanisms: van der Waals and capillary adhesion forces. The adhesion was determined using force versus distance (F-z) measurements performed with an atomic force microscope (AFM). To emulate dust interacting with the front surface of a solar panel, we measured how oxidized AFM tips, SiO 2 glass spheres, and real dust particles adhered to actual solar glass. The van der Waals forces were evaluated by measurements performed withmore » zero relative humidity in a glove box, and the capillary forces were measured in a stable environment created inside the AFM enclosure with relative humidity values ranging from 18% to 80%. To simulate topographic features of the solar panels caused by factors such as cleaning and abrasion, we induced different degrees of surface roughness in the solar glass. As a result, we were able to 1) identify and quantify both the van der Waals and capillary forces, 2) establish the effects of surface roughness, relative humidity, and particle size on the adhesion mechanisms, and 3) compare adhesion forces between well-controlled particles (AFM tips and glass spheres) and real dust particles.« less

Mathematical model of the solar radiation force and torques acting on the components of a spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgevic, R. M.

1971-01-01

General expressions for the solar radiation force and torques are derived in the vectorial form for any given reflecting surface, provided that the reflecting characteristics of the surface, as well as the value of the solar constant, are known. An appropriate choice of a spacecraft-fixed frame of reference leads to relatively simple expressions for the solar radiation forces and torques in terms of the functions of the sun-spacecraft-earth angle.

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate. Chapter 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald L.; Knippertz, Peter; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Tegan, Ina

2014-01-01

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.;

Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth

2001-01-01

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon

2015-01-01

In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation.

Closed Cycle Engine Program Used in Solar Dynamic Power Testing Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ensworth, Clint B., III; McKissock, David B.

1998-01-01

NASA Lewis Research Center is testing the world's first integrated solar dynamic power system in a simulated space environment. This system converts solar thermal energy into electrical energy by using a closed-cycle gas turbine and alternator. A NASA-developed analysis code called the Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP) has been used for both pretest predictions and post-test analysis of system performance. The solar dynamic power system has a reflective concentrator that focuses solar thermal energy into a cavity receiver. The receiver is a heat exchanger that transfers the thermal power to a working fluid, an inert gas mixture of helium and xenon. The receiver also uses a phase-change material to store the thermal energy so that the system can continue producing power when there is no solar input power, such as when an Earth-orbiting satellite is in eclipse. The system uses a recuperated closed Brayton cycle to convert thermal power to mechanical power. Heated gas from the receiver expands through a turbine that turns an alternator and a compressor. The system also includes a gas cooler and a radiator, which reject waste cycle heat, and a recuperator, a gas-to-gas heat exchanger that improves cycle efficiency by recovering thermal energy.

Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Weizheng; Li, Chun; Du, Ling

2014-12-01

Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to itsmore » positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.« less

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Munhoven, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Hickler, Thomas; Steinkamp, Jörg; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang

2017-08-01

Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr-1 (1981-2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.

Climsat rationale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James

1993-01-01

We summarize reasons for the Climsat proposition; we also stress the need for certain climate monitoring other than that supplied by Climsat, especially solar irradiance, and we stress the complementarity of Climsat monitoring to plans for detailed EOS measurements. Existing and planned observations will not provide measurements of most climate forcing and feedback parameters with the accuracy needed to measure plausible decadal changes. Stratospheric water vapor and aerosol requirements are not met, for example, even though the present SAGE II instrument on the ERBS spacecraft measures those two parameters accurately, because ERBS is not expected to last more than a few years and it does not provide global coverage. We stress the imminence of a potential data gap even of those parameters, such as solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosols, for which monitoring capability has been proven and currently is in place. We find that most of the missing global climate forcings and feedbacks can be measured by three small instruments, which would need to be deployed on two spacecraft to obtain adequate sampling and global coverage. The monitoring must be maintained continuously for at least two decades. Such continuity can be attained by replacing a satellite after it fails, the functioning satellite providing calibration transfer to the new satellite. Certain complementary monitoring data are also needed, including solar monitoring from space, in order to fully meet requirements for monitoring all the climate forcings and feedbacks. The complementary data needs are discussed toward the end of this section. We summarize the proposed Climsat measurements and compare the expected accuracies to those which are needed to analyze changes of the global thermal energy cycle on decadal time scales. We stress the need to get broader participation of the scientific community in the monitoring and analysis activity. Finally, we discuss related climate process and diagnostic measurements.

Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Marty; Hunt, Linda; Russell, James M., III

2016-01-01

The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

Intensity Variations of Narrow Bands of Solar UV Radiation during Descending Phases of SACs 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigolashvili, M.; Kapanadze, N.

2014-12-01

The study of variations of four narrow bands of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet (UV) range for period 1981-2008 is presented. Observational data obtained by space-flight missions SORCE, UARS, SME and daily meanings of international sunspot number (ISN) have been used. The investigated data cover the decreasing phases of the solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23. We have revealed a peculiar behavior of intensity variability of some solar ultraviolet spectral lines originated in the solar chromospheres for period corresponding to the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. It is found that variability of emission of different solar spectral narrow bands (289.5 nm, 300.5 nm) does not agree equally well with ISN variability during decreasing phase of the solar activity cycle 23. The negative correlations between total solar irradiance and the solar spectral narrow bands of UV emission (298.5 nm, 300.5 nm) had been revealed. The existence of the negative correlation can be explained by the sensitivity of SSI of some emission lines to the solar global magnetic field.

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W.

1990-01-01

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Criswell, David R.

1989-01-01

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, K.

2011-12-01

The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

The economics of solar powered absorption cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartlett, J. C.

1978-01-01

Analytic procedure evaluates cost of combining absorption-cycle chiller with solar-energy system in residential or commercial application. Procedure assumes that solar-energy system already exists to heat building and that cooling system must be added. Decision is whether to cool building with conventional vapor-compression-cycle chiller or to use solar-energy system to provide heat input to absorption chiller.

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, P.; Tung, K. K.

2008-04-01

Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Technical and economic feasibility study of solar/fossil hybrid power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomfield, H. S.; Calogeras, J. E.

1977-01-01

Results show that new hybrid systems utilizing fossil fuel augmentation of solar energy can provide significant capital and energy cost benefits when compared with solar thermal systems requiring thermal storage. These benefits accrue from a reduction of solar collection area that results from both the use of highly efficient gas and combined cycle energy conversion subsystems and elimination of the requirement for long-term energy storage subsystems. Technical feasibility and fuel savings benefits of solar hybrid retrofit to existing fossil-fired, gas and vapor cycle powerplants was confirmed; however, economic viability of steam cycle retrofit was found to be dependent on the thermodynamic and operational characteristics of the existing powerplant.

Effects of Space Weather on Biomedical Parameters during the Solar Activity Cycles 23-24.

PubMed

Ragul'skaya, M V; Rudenchik, E A; Chibisov, S M; Gromozova, E N

2015-06-01

The results of long-term (1998-2012) biomedical monitoring of the biotropic effects of space weather are discussed. A drastic change in statistical distribution parameters in the middle of 2005 was revealed that did not conform to usual sinusoidal distribution of the biomedical data reflecting changes in the number of solar spots over a solar activity cycle. The dynamics of space weather of 2001-2012 is analyzed. The authors hypothesize that the actual change in statistical distributions corresponds to the adaptation reaction of the biosphere to nonstandard geophysical characteristics of the 24th solar activity cycle and the probable long-term decrease in solar activity up to 2067.

Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shea, M. A.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960.

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

Energy comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosel, Urška; Avsec, Jurij

2017-07-01

The combined use of renewable energy and alternative energy systems and better efficiency of energy devices is a promising approach to reduce effects due to global warming in the world. On the basis of first and second law of thermodynamics we could optimize the processes in the energy sector. The presented paper shows the comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant in terms of energy, exergy and life cycle analysis. Solar thermal power plant produces electricity with basic Rankine cycle, using solar tower and solar mirrors to produce high fluid temperature. Heat from the solar system is transferred by using a heat exchanger to Rankine cycle. Both power plants produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The paper shows the global efficiency of the system, regarding production of the energy system.

Carrington cycle 24: the solar chromospheric emission in a historical and stellar perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder, K.-P.; Mittag, M.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Jack, D.; Hempelmann, A.; González-Pérez, J. N.

2017-09-01

We present the solar S-index record of cycle 24, obtained by the Telescopio Internacional de Guanajuato, Robotico Espectroscopico robotic telescope facility and its high-resolution spectrograph HEROS (R ≈ 20 000), which measures the solar chromospheric Ca II H&K line emission by using moonlight. Our calibration process uses the same set of standard stars as introduced by the Mount Wilson team, thus giving us a direct comparison with their huge body of observations taken between 1966 and 1992, as well as with other cool stars. Carrington cycle 24 activity started from the unusually deep and long minimum 2008/2009, with an S-index average of only 0.154, 0.015 deeper than the one of 1986 (〈S〉 = 0.169). In this respect, the chromospheric radiative losses differ remarkably from the variation of the coronal radio flux F10.7 cm and the sunspot numbers. In addition, the cycle 24 S-amplitude remained small, 0.022 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.024), and so resulted in a very low 2014 maximum of 〈S〉 = 0.176 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.193). We argue that this find is significant, since the Ca II H&K line emission is a good proxy for the solar far-ultraviolet (far-UV) flux, which plays an important role in the heating of the Earth's stratosphere, and we further argue that the solar far-UV flux changes with solar activity much more strongly than the total solar output.

Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

PubMed Central

Ng, Kim Kwee

2016-01-01

An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

SIMULATION STUDY OF HEMISPHERIC PHASE-ASYMMETRY IN THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukuya, D.; Kusano, K., E-mail: kusano@nagoya-u.jp

2017-01-20

Observations of the Sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north–south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar cycle. Svalgaard and Kamide recently pointed out that the time gaps of polar field reversal between the northern and southern hemispheres are simply consequences of the asymmetry of sunspot activity. However, the mechanism underlying the asymmetric feature in solar cycle activity is not yet well understood. In this paper, in order to explain the cause of the asymmetry from the theoretical point of view, we investigatemore » the relationship between the dipole- and quadrupole-type components of the magnetic field in the solar cycle using the mean-field theory based on the flux transport dynamo model. As a result, we found that there are two different attractors of the solar cycle, in which either the north or the south polar field is first reversed, and that the flux transport dynamo model explains well the phase-asymmetry of sunspot activity and the polar field reversal without any ad hoc source of asymmetry.« less

Review of the Two-Step H2O/CO2-Splitting Solar Thermochemical Cycle Based on Zn/ZnO Redox Reactions

PubMed Central

Loutzenhiser, Peter G.; Meier, Anton; Steinfeld, Aldo

2010-01-01

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the work to date on the two‑step solar H2O and/or CO2 splitting thermochemical cycles with Zn/ZnO redox reactions to produce H2 and/or CO, i.e., synthesis gas—the precursor to renewable liquid hydrocarbon fuels. The two-step cycle encompasses: (1) The endothermic dissociation of ZnO to Zn and O2 using concentrated solar energy as the source for high-temperature process heat; and (2) the non-solar exothermic oxidation of Zn with H2O/CO2 to generate H2/CO, respectively; the resulting ZnO is then recycled to the first step. An outline of the underlying science and the technological advances in solar reactor engineering is provided along with life cycle and economic analyses. PMID:28883361

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Long dance of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.

2006-02-01

In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal.

Simulated space environment tests on cadmium sulfide solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, D. R.; Oman, H.

1971-01-01

Cadmium sulfide (Cu2s - CdS) solar cells were tested under simulated space environmental conditions. Some cells were thermally cycled with illumination from a Xenon-arc solar simulator. A cycle was one hour of illumination followed immediately with one-half hour of darkness. In the light, the cells reached an equilibrium temperature of 60 C (333 K) and in the dark the cell temperature dropped to -120 C (153 K). Other cells were constantly illuminated with a Xenon-arc solar simulator. The equilibrium temperature of these cells was 55 C (328 K). The black vacuum chamber walls were cooled with liquid nitrogen to simulate a space heat sink. Chamber pressure was maintained at 0.000001 torr or less. Almost all of the solar cells tested degraded in power when exposed to a simulated space environment of either thermal cycling or constant illumination. The cells tested the longest were exposed to 10.050 thermal cycles.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.

2016-12-01

Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.

QBO/solar modulation of the boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation: A prediction for the coming solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Lon L.

2017-04-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ganghua; Wang, Xiao Fan; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Suo; Zhang, Mei; Wang, Haimin; Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Tlatov, Andrey; Demidov, Mihail; Borovik, Aleksandr; Golovko, Aleksey

2017-06-01

This article introduces our ongoing project "Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research". Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a time span of more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant signs of progress are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles.

Application of solar energy to air conditioning systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nash, J. M.; Harstad, A. J.

1976-01-01

The results of a survey of solar energy system applications of air conditioning are summarized. Techniques discussed are both solar powered (absorption cycle and the heat engine/Rankine cycle) and solar related (heat pump). Brief descriptions of the physical implications of various air conditioning techniques, discussions of status, proposed technological improvements, methods of utilization and simulation models are presented, along with an extensive bibliography of related literature.

Quasi-periodic changes in the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays for 1965-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modzelewska, R.; Alania, M. V.

2018-01-01

Aims: We study features of the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) for 1965-2014 (almost five solar cycles, cycles 20-24). We analyze the 27-day variations of the 2D GCR anisotropy in the ecliptic plane and the north-south anisotropy normal to the ecliptic plane. We study the dependence of the 27-day variation of the 3D GCR anisotropy on the solar cycle and solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the 27-day variations of the GCR intensity and anisotropy can be used as an important tool to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. Methods: We used the components Ar, Aϕ and At of the 3D GCR anisotropy that were found based on hourly data of neutron monitors (NMs) and muon telescopes (MTs) using the harmonic analyses and spectrographic methods. We corrected the 2D diurnal ( 24-h) variation of the GCR intensity for the influence of the Earth magnetic field. We derived the north-south component of the GCR anisotropy based on the GG index, which is calculated as the difference in GCR intensities of the Nagoya multidirectional MTs. Results: We show that the behavior of the 27-day variation of the 3D anisotropy verifies a stable long-lived active heliolongitude on the Sun. This illustrates the usefulness of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy as a unique proxy to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. We distinguish a tendency of the 22-yr changes in amplitude of the 27-day variation of the 2D anisotropy that is connected with the solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the north-south component of the anisotropy vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, but a dependence of the solar magnetic polarity can hardly be recognized. We show that the 27-day recurrences of the GG index and the At component are highly positively correlated, and both are highly correlated with the By component of the heliospheric magnetic field.

Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S.

2017-08-01

The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect.

A STUDY OF THE HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRY OF SUNSPOT AREA DURING SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chowdhury, Partha; Choudhary, D. P.; Gosain, Sanjay, E-mail: partha240@yahoo.co.in, E-mail: parthares@gmail.com, E-mail: debiprasad.choudhary@csun.edu, E-mail: sgosain@nso.edu

2013-05-10

Solar activity indices vary over the Sun's disk, and various activity parameters are not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. The north-south asymmetry of different solar indices provides an important clue to understanding subphotospheric dynamics and solar dynamo action, especially with regard to nonlinear dynamo models. In the present work, we study the statistical significance of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot areas for the complete solar cycle 23 (1996-2008) and rising branch of cycle 24 (first 45 months). The preferred hemisphere in each year of cycles 23 and 24 has been identified bymore » calculating the probability of hemispheric distribution of sunspot areas. The statistically significant intermediate-term periodicities of the north-south asymmetry of sunspot area data have also been investigated using Lomb-Scargle and wavelet techniques. A number of short- and mid-term periods including the best-known Rieger one (150-160 days) are detected in cycle 23 and near Rieger-type periods during cycle 24, and most of them are found to be time variable. We present our results and discuss their possible explanations with the help of theoretical models and observations.« less

A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1990-01-01

A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.

Solar-powered air-conditioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, D. C.; Rousseau, J.

1977-01-01

Report focuses on recent study on development of solar-powered residential air conditioners and is based on selected literature through 1975. Its purposes are to characterize thermal and mechanical systems that might be useful in development of Rankine-cycle approach to solar cooling and assessment of a Lithium Bromide/Water absorption cycle system.

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Fifteen years in the high-energy life of the solar-type star HD 81809. XMM-Newton observations of a stellar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, S.; Favata, F.; Micela, G.; Sciortino, S.; Maggio, A.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Robrade, J.; Mittag, M.

2017-09-01

Context. The modulation of the activity level of solar-like stars is commonly revealed by cyclic variations in their chromospheric indicators, such as the Ca II H&K S-index, similarly to what is observed in our Sun. However, while the variation of solar activity is also reflected in the cyclical modulation of its coronal X-ray emission, similar behavior has only been discovered in a few stars other than the Sun. Aims: The data set of the long-term XMM-Newton monitoring program of HD 81809 is analyzed to study its X-ray cycle, investigate if the latter is related to the chromospheric cycle, infer the structure of the corona of HD 81809, and explore if the coronal activity of HD 81809 can be ascribed to phenomena similar to solar activity and, therefore, considered an extension of the solar case. Methods: We analyzed the observations of HD 81809 performed with XMM-Newton with a regular cadence of six months from 2001 to 2016, which represents one of the longest available observational baseline ( 15 yr) for a solar-like star with a well-studied chromospheric cycle (with a period of 8 yr). We investigated the modulation of coronal luminosity and temperature and its relation with the chromospheric cycle. We interpreted the data in terms of a mixture of solar-like coronal regions, adopting a method originally proposed to study the Sun as an X-ray star. Results: The observations show a well-defined regular cyclic modulation of the X-ray luminosity that reflects the activity level of HD 81809. The data covers approximately two cycles of coronal activity; the modulation has an amplitude of a factor of 5 (excluding evident flares, as in the June 2002 observation) and a period of 7.3 ± 1.5 yr, which is consistent with that of the chromospheric cycle. We demonstrate that the corona of HD 81809 can be interpreted as an extension of the solar case and can be modeled with a mixture of solar-like coronal regions along the whole cycle. The activity level is mainly determined by varying coverage of very bright active regions, similar to cores of active regions observed in the Sun. Evidence of unresolved significant flaring activity is present especially in the proximity of cycle maxima.

42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-07-01

Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients.

Sub-Milankovitch millennial-scale climate variability in Middle Eocene deep-marine sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scotchman, J. I.; Pickering, K. T.; Robinson, S. A.

2009-12-01

Sub-Milankovitch millennial scale climate variability appears ubiquitous throughout the Quaternary and Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental records (e.g. McManus et al., 1999) yet the driving mechanism remains elusive. Possible mechanisms are generally linked to Quaternary-specific oceanic and cryospheric conditions (e.g. Maslin et al., 2001). An alternative external control, such as solar forcing, however, remains a compelling alternative hypothesis (e.g. Bond et al., 2001). This would imply that millennial-scale cycles are an intrinsic part of the Earth’s climatic system and not restricted to any specific period of time. Determining which of these hypotheses is correct impacts on our understanding of the climate system and its role as a driver of cyclic sedimentation during both icehouse and greenhouse climates. Here we show that Middle Eocene, laminated deep-marine sediments deposited in the Ainsa Basin, Spanish Pyrenees, contain 1,565-year (469 mm) cycles modulated by a 7,141-year (2157 mm) period. Climatic oscillations of 1,565-years recorded by element/Al ratios, are interpreted as representing climatically driven variation in sediment supply (terrigenous run-off) to the Ainsa basin. Climatic oscillations with this period are comparable to Quaternary Bond (~1,500-year), Dansgaard-Oeschger (~1,470-year) and Heinrich (~7,200-year) climatic events. Recognition of similar millennial-scale oscillations in the greenhouse climate of the Middle Eocene would appear inconsistent with an origin dependent upon Quaternary-specific conditions. Our observations lend support for pervasive millennial-scale climatic variability present throughout geologic time likely driven by an external forcing mechanism such as solar forcing. References Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W., Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., Bonani, G. 2001. Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene. Science, 294, 2130-2136 Maslin, M., Seidov, D., Lowe, J. 2001. Synthesis of the nature and causes of rapid climate transitions during the Quaternary. In: The Oceans and rapid climate change: Past, present and future, (Seidov, D., Haupt, B. J. & Maslin, M., Eds.), AGU, Washington, D. C. McManus, J.F., Oppo, D.W. & Cullen, J.L. 1999. A 0.5-Million-Year Record of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic. Science, 283, 971-975

Magnetic moment of solar plasma and the Kelvin force: -The driving force of plasma up-flow -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, Kiyoto

2017-04-01

Thermal plasma in the solar atmosphere is magnetized (diamagnetic). The magnetic moment does not disappear by collisions because complete gyration is not a necessary condition to have magnetic moment. Magnetized fluid is subjected to Kelvin force in non-uniform magnetic field. Generally, magnetic field strength decreases upwards in the solar atmosphere, hence the Kelvin force is directed upwards along the field. This force is not included in the fluid treatment of MHD. By adding the Kelvin force to the MHD equation of motion, we can expect temperature dependent plasma flows along the field which are reported by many observations. The temperature dependence of the flow speed is explained by temperature dependence of magnetic moment. From the observed parameters, we can infer physical parameters in the solar atmosphere such as scale length of the magnetic field strength and the friction force acting on the flowing plasma. In case of closed magnetic field lines, loop-top concentration of hot plasma is expected which is frequently observed.

Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-01-01

We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.

Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J.

2010-04-01

We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

1994-01-01

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin

2018-06-01

We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed.

Technology for Bayton-cycle powerplants using solar and nuclear energy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, R. E.

1986-01-01

Brayton cycle gas turbines have the potential to use either solar heat or nuclear reactors for generating from tens of kilowatts to tens of megawatts of power in space, all this from a single technology for the power generating system. Their development for solar energy dynamic power generation for the space station could be the first step in an evolution of such powerplants for a very wide range of applications. At the low power level of only 10 kWe, a power generating system has already demonstrated overall efficiency of 0.29 and operated 38 000 hr. Tests of improved components show that these components would raise that efficiency to 0.32, a value twice that demonstrated by any alternate concept. Because of this high efficiency, solar Brayton cycle power generators offer the potential to increase power per unit of solar collector area to levels exceeding four times that from photovoltaic powerplants using present technology for silicon solar cells. The technologies for solar mirrors and heat receivers are reviewed and assessed. This Brayton technology for solar powerplants is equally suitable for use with the nuclear reactors. The available long time creep data on the tantalum alloy ASTAR-811C show that such Brayton cycles can evolve to cycle peak temperatures of 1500 K (2240 F). And this same technology can be extended to generate 10 to 100 MW in space by exploiting existing technology for terrestrial gas turbines in the fields of both aircraft propulsion and stationary power generation.

Reconciling solar and stellar magnetic cycles with nonlinear dynamo simulations.

PubMed

Strugarek, A; Beaudoin, P; Charbonneau, P; Brun, A S; do Nascimento, J-D

2017-07-14

The magnetic fields of solar-type stars are observed to cycle over decadal periods-11 years in the case of the Sun. The fields originate in the turbulent convective layers of stars and have a complex dependency upon stellar rotation rate. We have performed a set of turbulent global simulations that exhibit magnetic cycles varying systematically with stellar rotation and luminosity. We find that the magnetic cycle period is inversely proportional to the Rossby number, which quantifies the influence of rotation on turbulent convection. The trend relies on a fundamentally nonlinear dynamo process and is compatible with the Sun's cycle and those of other solar-type stars. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump ismore » here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

2014-01-01

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

2016-11-01

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.

2017-09-01

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.

Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2009-04-01

We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

Modeling the Observed Solar Cycle Variations of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO): Amplification by Wave Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, Frank T.; Chan, Kwing L.

2007-01-01

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation, which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Salby and Callaghan (2000) in particular analyzed the QBO, covering more than 40 years, and discovered that it contains a large SC signature at 20 km. With our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we conducted a 3D study to describe the QBO under the influence of the SC, and some results have been published (Mayr et al., GRL, 2005,2006). For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, the model generates a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which reproduces the observations qualitatively. Our numerical results demonstrate that the modulation of the QBO, with constant phase relative to the SC, persist at least for 60 years. The same model run generates in the seasonal variations a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period), which is confined to low latitudes like the QBO and is also modulated by the SC. Although the amplitude of the EAO is relatively small, its SC modulation is large, and it is in phase with that of the QBO. The SC modulated EAO is evidently the pathway and pacemaker for the solar influence on the QBO. To shed light on the dynamical processes involved, we present model results that show how the seasonal cycle induces the SC modulations of the EAO and QBO. Our analysis further demonstrates that the SC modulations of the QBO and EAO are amplified by the GW interaction with the flow. The GW momentum source clearly shows a SC modulation that is in phase with the corresponding modulations of the QBO and EAO. By tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs, the QBO and EAO apparently serve as conduits to amplify and transfer to lower altitudes the larger SC variations in the UV absorbed in the mesosphere. Our model also produces in the temperature variations of the QBO and EAO measurable SC modulations at polar latitudes near the tropopause, and such signatures have been reported in the literature. Contrary to conventional interpretation, however, we suggest that the effects are generated at least in part by the meridional circulation, and planetary waves presumably, which redistribute the energy from the equatorial region where wave forcing is very efficient and thereby amplifies the SC influence.

Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2002-01-01

One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

High frequency solar influence revealed in sclerosponge-derived Caribbean SST record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrella, J.; Winter, A.; Sherman, C.; Mangini, A.

2012-12-01

We present a high-resolution (annual) record of the Caribbean mixed layer temperature at different depths derived from oxygen isotopic ratios obtained from the sclerosponge Ceratoporella nicholsoni. Sclerosponges precipitate their calcium carbonate skeleton in equilibrium with their surrounding environment and are capable of living at depths down to 200 m. The sponges for this project were collected off the coasts of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in northeastern Caribbean Sea. The records obtained extend from the early 1500's to the present and suggest that the Northeastern Caribbean was 1 - 2 °C cooler during the Little Ice Age than present conditions and that sea surface temperature (SST) has been rising at an average linear rate of 0.009 °C yr-1 since the mid 1800's, three times faster than the World Ocean. Wavelet time series analysis of our records suggests that Caribbean SST variability is regulated by the sunspot cycle, especially when the total solar irradiance is high, at what time the SSTs and the sunspot cycle are highly coupled. Our findings suggest a SST response to solar influence of 0.40 °C (W/m2)-1, almost twice that of the World Ocean. Deceleration of the Caribbean Current is proposed as a possible reason for this disparity. Further work is currently being done on other sponges and other calcium carbonate proxies to examine the extension of this forcing in other climate phenomena.

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, A. A.; Charbonneau, P.; Passos, D.

2014-12-01

Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in north-south hemispheric solar cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to observations. The observed limits on solar cycle amplitude and phase asymmetry show that hemispheric sunspot area production is no more than 20 % asymmetric for cycles 17-23 and that phase lags do not exceed 20 % (or two years) of the total cycle period, as determined from Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot data. Several independent studies have found a long-term trend in phase values as one hemisphere leads the other for, on average, four cycles. Such persistence in phase is not indicative of a stochastic phenomenon. We compare these observational findings to the magnetic cycle found in a numerical simulation of solar convection recently produced with the EULAG-MHD model. This long "millennium simulation" spans more than 1600 years and generated 40 regular, sunspot-like cycles. While the simulated cycle length is too long (˜40 yrs) and the toroidal bands remain at too high of latitudes (>30°), some solar-like aspects of hemispheric asymmetry are reproduced. The model is successful at reproducing the synchrony of polarity inversions and onset of cycle as the simulated phase lags do not exceed 20 % of the cycle period. The simulated amplitude variations between the north and south hemispheres are larger than those observed in the Sun, some up to 40 %. An interesting note is that the simulations also show that one hemisphere can persistently lead the other for several successive cycles, placing an upper bound on the efficiency of transequatorial magnetic coupling mechanisms. These include magnetic diffusion, cross-equatorial mixing within latitudinally-elongated convective rolls (a.k.a. "banana cells") and transequatorial meridional flow cells. One or more of these processes may lead to magnetic flux cancellation whereby the oppositely directed fields come in close proximity and cancel each other across the magnetic equator late in the solar cycle. We discuss the discrepancies between model and observations and the constraints they pose on possible mechanisms of hemispheric coupling.

Magnetic flux in modeled magnetic clouds at 1 AU and some specific comparisons to associated photospheric flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lepping, R. P.; Szabo, A.; DeForest, C. E.; Thompson, B. J.

1997-01-01

In order to better understand the solar origins of magnetic clouds, statistical distributions of the estimated axial magnetic flux of 30 magnetic clouds at 1 AU, separated according to their occurrence during the solar cycle, were obtained and a comparison was made of the magnetic flux of a magnetic cloud to the aggregate flux of apparently associated photospheric magnetic flux tubes, for some specific cases. The 30 magnetic clouds comprise 12 cases from WIND, and the remainder from IMP-8, earlier IMPs, the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 and HELIOS. The total magnetic flux along the cloud axis was estimated using a constant alpha, cylindrical, force-free flux rope model to determine cloud diameter and axial magentic field strength. The distribution of magentic fluxes for the 30 clouds is shown to be in the form of a skewed Gaussian.

Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David

The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of these processes in driving observed variations in dayside exospheric temperatures. Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) simulations and resulting exo-spheric temperatures will be presented and compared with assimilated temperatures collected from all these available measurements over the solar cycle. It is important to match measure-ments at dayside local times and latitudes for specific seasons with corresponding MTGCM simulated outputs. Calculated local heat budgets and their variations illustrate the changes required to reproduce solar cycle variations in exospheric temperatures. The ability to success-fully predict solar cycle responses of the Martian upper atmosphere is important for simulations of present-day Mars volatile escape rates.

Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

1992-01-01

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, L. J.

2016-12-01

The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N., E-mail: znqu@ynao.ac.cn

The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) observed at the Wilcox Solar Observatory of Stanford University from 1975 to 2014, and then we analyze the periods of these IMFs as well as the relation of IMFs (SMMF) with some solar activity indices. The two special rotation cycles of 26.6 and 28.5 days should be derived from different magnetic flux elements in the SMMF. The rotation cycle of the weak magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 26.6 days, while the rotation cycle of themore » strong magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 28.5 days. The two rotation periods of the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field near the ecliptic plane are essentially related to weak and strong magnetic flux elements in the SMMF, respectively. The rotation cycle of weak magnetic flux in the SMMF did not vary over the last 40 years because the weak magnetic flux element derived from the weak magnetic activity on the full disk is not influenced by latitudinal migration. Neither the internal rotation of the Sun nor the solar magnetic activity on the disk (including the solar polar fields) causes the annual variation of SMMF. The variation of SMMF at timescales of a solar cycle is more related to weak magnetic activity on the full solar disk.« less

Solar Variability from 240 to 1750 nm in Terms of Faculae Brightening and Sunspot Darkening from SCIAMACHY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variationsmore » above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less

Solar Energetic Particle Composition over Two Solar Cycles as Observed by the Ulysses/HISCALE and ACE/EPAM Pulse Height Analyzers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions.

Reduction of Life Cycle CO2 Emission in Public Welfare Facilities Equipped with PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki

The reduction effect of life cycle CO2 emission is examined in case of introducing a PV/solar heat/cogeneration system into public welfare facilities(hotel and hospital). Life cycle CO2 emission is calculated as the sum of that when operating and that when manufacturing equipments. The system is operated with the dynamic programming method, into which hourly data of electric and heat loads, solar insolation, and atmospheric temperature during a year are input. The proposed system is compared with a conventional system and a cogeneration system. The life cycle CO2 emission of the PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is lower than that of the conventional system by 20% in hotel and by 14% in hospital.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Coronal Holes and Magnetic Flux Ropes Interweaving Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony; Leamon, Robert; Qiu, Jiong

2016-10-01

Coronal holes, dark patches observed in solar observations in extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelengths, provide an excellent proxy for regions of open magnetic field rooted near the photosphere. Through a multi-instrument approach, including SDO data, we are able to stitch together high resolution maps of coronal hole boundaries spanning the past two solar activity cycles. These observational results are used in conjunction with models of open magnetic field to probe physical solar parameters. Magnetic flux ropes are commonly defined as bundles of solar magnetic field lines, twisting around a common axis. Photospheric surface flows and magnetic reconnection work in conjunction to form these ropes, storing magnetic stresses until eruption. With an automated methodology to identify flux ropes within observationally driven magnetofrictional simulations, we can study their properties in detail. Of particular interest is a solar-cycle length statistical description of eruption rates, spatial distribution, magnetic orientation, flux, and helicity. Coronal hole observations can provide useful data about the distribution of the fast solar wind, with magnetic flux ropes yielding clues as to ejected magnetic field and the resulting space weather geo-effectiveness. With both of these cycle-spanning datasets, we can begin to form a more detailed picture of the evolution and consequences of both sets of solar magnetic features.

Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

2017-04-01

The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.

Investigation of reliability attributes and accelerated stress factors on terrestrial solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lathrop, J. W.; Prince, J. L.

1980-01-01

Three tasks were undertaken to investigate reliability attributes of terrestrial solar cells: (1) a study of the electrical behavior of cells in the second (reverse) quadrant; (2) the accelerated stress testing of three new state-of-the-art cells; and (3) the continued bias-temperature testing of four block 2 type silicon cells at 78 C and 135 C. Electrical characteristics measured in the second quadrant were determined to be a function of the cell's thermal behavior with breakdown depending on the initiation of localized heating. This implied that high breakdown cells may be more fault tolerant when forced to operate in the second quadrant, a result contrary to conventional thinking. The accelerated stress tests used in the first (power) quadrant were bias-temperature, bias-temperature-humidity, temperature-humidity, thermal shock, and thermal cycle. The new type cells measured included an EFG cell, a polycrystalline cell, and a Czochralski cell. Significant differences in the response to the various tests were observed between cell types. A microprocessed controlled, short interval solar cell tester was designed and construction initiated on a prototype.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L.; Stock, James H.

2011-01-01

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects. PMID:21730180

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M.

Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less

Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William

2016-05-01

In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications.

The radial distribution of cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, F. B.; Fujii, Z.; Heikkila, B.; Lal, N.

2003-08-01

To obtain a more detailed profile of the radial distribution of galactic (GCRs) and anomalous (ACRs) cosmic rays, a unique time in the 11-year solar activity cycle has been selected - that of solar maximum. At this time of minimum cosmic ray intensity a simple, straight-forward normalization technique has been found that allows the cosmic ray data from IMP 8, Pioneer 10 (P-10) and Voyagers 1 and 2 (V1, V2) to be combined for the solar maxima of cycles 21, 22 and 23. This combined distribution reveals a functional form of the radial gradient that varies as G 0/r with G 0 being constant and relatively small in the inner heliosphere. After a transition region between ˜10 and 20 AU, G 0 increases to a much larger value that remains constant between ˜25 and 82 AU. This implies that at solar maximum the changes that produce the 11-year modulation cycle are mainly occurring in the outer heliosphere between ˜15 AU and the termination shock. These observations are not inconsistent with the concept that Global Merged Interaction. regions (GMIRs) are the principal agent of modulation between solar minimum and solar maximum. There does not appear to be a significant change in the amount of heliosheath modulation occurring between the 1997 solar minimum and the cycle 23 solar maximum.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.; Lepping, R. P.

2007-01-01

We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Solar and terrestrial physics. [effects of solar activities on earth environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The effects of solar radiation on the near space and biomental earth, the upper atmosphere, and the magnetosphere are discussed. Data obtained from the OSO satellites pertaining to the solar cycle variation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation are analyzed. The effects of solar cycle variation of the characteristics of the solar wind are examined. The fluid mechanics of shock waves and the specific relationship to the characteristics of solar shock waves are investigated. The solar and corpuscular heating of the upper atmosphere is reported based on the findings of the AEROS and NATE experiments. Seasonal variations of the upper atmosphere composition are plotted based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer data.

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2010-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Influence of interplanetary solar wind sector polarity on the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

liu, jing

2014-05-01

Knowledge of solar sector polarity effects on the ionosphere may provide some clues in understanding of the ionospheric day-to-day variability. A solar-terrestrial connection ranging from solar sector boundary (SB) crossings, geomagnetic disturbance and ionospheric perturbations has been demonstrated. The increases in interplanetary solar wind speed within three days are seen after SB crossings, while the decreases in solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetic field intensity immediately after SB crossings are confirmed by the superposed epoch analysis results. Furthermore, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turns from northward to southward in March equinox and June solstice as the Earth passes from a solar sector of outward to inward directed magnetic fields, whereas the reverse situation occurs for the transition from toward to away sectors. The F2 region critical frequency (foF2) covering about four solar cycles and total electron content (TEC) during 1998-2011 are utilized to extract the related information, revealing that they are not modified significantly and vary within the range of 15% on average. The responses of the ionospheric TEC to SB crossings exhibit complex temporal and spatial variations and have strong dependencies on season, latitude, and solar cycle. This effect is more appreciable in equinoctial months than in solstitial months, which is mainly caused by larger southward Bz components in equinox. In September equinox, latitudinal profile of relative variations of foF2 at noon is featured by depressions at high latitudes and enhancements in low-equatorial latitudes during IMF away sectors. The negative phase of foF2 is delayed at solar minimum relative to it during other parts of solar cycle, which might be associated with the difference in longevity of major interplanetary solar wind drivers perturbing the Earth's environment in different phases of solar cycle.

Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.

2016-03-25

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

2018-01-01

The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, and consequently leading to the development of positive PNA-like pattern during the WE phase. Thus, it seems that the solar cycle can significantly modulate the WE effect on the PNA under the HS background.

Modeling Wave Driven Non-linear Flow Oscillations: The Terrestrial QBO and a Solar Analog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation observed in the terrestrial atmosphere at low latitudes is driven by wave mean flow interaction as was demonstrated first by Lindzen and Holton (1968), shown in a laboratory experiment by Plumb and McEwan (1978), and modeled by others (e.g., Plumb, Dunkerton). Although influenced by the seasonal cycle of solar forcing, the QBO, in principle, represents a nonlinear flow oscillation that can be maintained by a steady source of upward propagating waves. The wave driven non-linearity is of third or odd order in the flow velocity, which regenerates the fundamental harmonic itself to keep the oscillation going - the fluid dynamical analog of the displacement mechanism in the mechanical clock. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP) for gravity waves (GW), we discuss with a global-scale spectral model numerical experiments that elucidate some properties of the QBO and its possible effects on the climatology of the atmosphere. Depending on the period of the QBO, wave filtering can cause interaction with the seasonal variations to produce pronounced oscillations with beat periods around 10 years. Since the seasonal cycle and its variability influence the period of the QBO, it may also be a potent conduit of solar activity variations to lower altitudes. Analogous to the terrestrial QBO, we propose that a flow oscillation may account for the 22-year periodicity of the solar magnetic cycle, potentially answering Dicke (1978) who asked, "Is there a chronometer hidden deep inside the Sun?" The oscillation would occur below the convection region, where gravity waves can propagate. Employing a simplified, analytic model, Hines' DSP is applied to estimate the flow oscillation. Depending on the adopted horizontal wavelengths of GW's, wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can be made to produce oscillating zonal flows of about 20 m/s that should be large enough to generate a significant oscillation in the magnetic field. For the large length scales of the Sun, the flow cycle period tends to be very long. The period, however, can be made to be 22 years, provided the buoyancy frequency (stability) is sufficiently small, thus placing the proposed flow near the base of the convection zone where a dynamo is now believed to operate.

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

PubMed Central

Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Popova, E.; Zharkov, S. I.

2015-01-01

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. PMID:26511513

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less

Heliocentric Distance of Coronal Mass Ejections at the Time of Energetic Particle Release: Revisiting the Ground Level Enhancement Events of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

Using the kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), onset time of soft X-ray flares, and the finite size of the pre-eruption CME structure, we derive the heliocentric distane at which the energetic particles during the ground level enhancement (GLE) events of Solar Cycle 23. We find that the GLE particles are released when the CMEs reach an average heliocentric distance of approx.3.25 solar radii (Rs). From this we infer that the shocks accelerating the particles are located at similar heights. Type II radio burst observations indicate that the CMEs are at much lower distances (average approx.1.4 Rs) when the CME-driven shock first forms. The shock seems to travel approx.1.8 Rs over a period of approox.30 min on the average before releasing the GLE particles. In deriving these results, we made three assumptions that have observational support: (i) the CME lift off occurs from an initial distance of about 1.25 Rs; (ii) the flare onset and CME onset are one and the same because these are two different manifestations of the same eruption; and (iii) the CME has positive acceleration from the onset to the first appearance in the coronagraphic field of view (2.5 to 6 Rs). Observations of coronal cavities in eclipse pictures and in coronagraphic images justify the assumption (i). The close relationship between the flare reconnection magnetic flux and the azimuthal flux of interplanetary magnetic clouds justify assumption (ii) consistent with the standard model (CSHKP) of solar eruption. Coronagraphic observations made close to the solar surface indicate a large positive acceleration of CMEs to a heliocentric distance of approx.3 Rs before they start slowing down due to the drag force. The inferred acceleration (approx.1.5 km/s/s) is consistent with reported values in the literature.

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David

2010-01-01

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

Orbital Drivers of Climate Change on Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zent, A. P.

Oscillations of orbital elements and spin axis orientation affect the climate of both Earth and Mars by redistributing solar power both latitudinally and seasonally, often resulting in secondary changes in reflected and emitted radiation (radiative forcing). Multiple feedback loops between different climatic elements operate on both planets, with the result that climate response is generally nonlinear with simple changes in solar energy. Both insolation history and geochemical climate proxies can be treated as time series data, and analyzed in terms of component frequencies. The correspondence between frequencies measured in climate proxies and orbital oscillations is the key to relating orbital cause and climatic effect. Discussions of both Earth and Mars focus on the last 5-10 m.y., because this is the period in which the orbital history and geologic record are best understood. The terrestrial climate is an extraordinarily complex system, and a vast amount of data is available for analysis. While the geologic record strongly supports the role of Milankovitch cycles as the underlying cause of glacial cycles, orbitally driven insolation changes alone cannot explain the observations in detail. Early Pleistocene glacial cycles responded linearly to the 41-k.y. oscillations in obliquity. However, over the last 1 m.y., glacial/interglacial oscillations have become more extreme as the climate has cooled. Long cooling intervals marked by an oscillating buildup of ice sheets are now followed by brief, intense periods of warming. At the same time, glacial/interglacial cycles have shifted from 41 k.y. to ~100 k.y. No such changes occurred in the solar forcing due to orbital oscillations. While orbital oscillations still appear to pace glacial cycles, their subtle interplay with ice-sheet dynamics and shifts in ocean circulation have come to dominate the late Pleistocene climate system. In contrast to Earth, the martian climate is ostensibly a much simpler system about which we have almost no quantitative data. Lacking climate proxies and chronological data, we are forced to rely on climate modeling and whatever constraints can be extracted from the predominantly remote sensing data available. Obliquity oscillations account for most of the power in historical insolation. Unfortunately, the last 5 m.y. are an anomalous period in Mars' climate history due to a secular decrease in Mars' obliquity. Subsequent to that, however, models and observations are consistent with the hypothesis that during periods of higher obliquity, enhanced polar summer insolation increases atmospheric water vapor and dust content, and ice stability shifted toward the equator. Polar caps become thermodynamically unstable, and much of the surface H2O inventory migrates from high latitudes to the tropics. As obliquity decreases, ice returns to the poles, leaving unstable ice-rich deposits in the mid latitudes that are mantled by dust. Low-obliquity periods entail — at least on occasion — collapse of the atmosphere onto the poles and high-latitude CO2 glaciers. During protracted nodes in obliquity, mid-latitude ice undergoes slow but sustained sublimation and redistribution to the poles. Because of the tremendous breadth of the subject matter, this chapter necessarily presents a high-level overview, and the reader will be compelled to investigate the copious references for a more rigorous explanation of most topics.

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, David W.; Solomon, Stanley C.

1992-01-01

This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

Model of Energy Spectrum Parameters of Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.-S.; Qin, G.

2018-01-01

Mewaldt et al. (2012) fitted the observations of the ground level enhancement (GLE) events during solar cycle 23 to the double power law equation to obtain the four spectral parameters, the normalization constant C, low-energy power law slope γ1, high-energy power law slope γ2, and break energy E0. There are 16 GLEs from which we select 13 for study by excluding some events with complicated situation. We analyze the four parameters with conditions of the corresponding solar events. According to solar event conditions, we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary shocks and another one without strong acceleration. By fitting the four parameters with solar event conditions we obtain models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. Therefore, we establish a model of energy spectrum of solar cycle 23 GLEs, which may be used in prediction in the future.

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Mcpeters, Richard D.; Meade, Paul E.

1990-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.

2016-10-01

The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Solar Surface Velocity in the Large Scale estimated by Magnetic Element Tracking Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiyama, M.; Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Machida, S.

2017-12-01

The 11years variation in the solar activity is one of the important sources of decadal variation in the solar-terrestrial environment. Therefore, predicting the solar cycle activity is crucial for the space weather. To build the prediction schemes for the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Recently, the relationship between polar magnetic field at the solar minimum and next solar cycle activity is intensively discussed. Nowadays, many people believe that the polar magnetic field at the solar minimum is one of the best predictor for the next solar cycle. To estimate polar magnetic field, Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model have been often used. On the other hand, SFT model needs several parameters, for example Meridional circulation, differential rotation, turbulent diffusion etc.. So far, those parameters have not been fully understood, and their uncertainties may affect the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we try to discuss the parameters which are used in SFT model. We focus on two kinds of the solar surface motions, Differential rotation and Meridional circulation. First, we have developed Magnetic Element Tracking (MET) module, which is able to obtain the surface velocity by using the magnetic field data. We have used SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI for the magnetic field data. By using MET, we study the solar surface motion over 2 cycle (nearly 24 years), and we found that the velocity variation is related to the active region belt. This result is consistent with [Hathaway et al., 2011]. Further, we apply our module to the Hinode/SOT data which spatial resolution is high. Because of its high resolution, we can discuss the surface motion close to the pole which has not been discussed enough. Further, we discuss the relationship between the surface motion and the magnetic field strength and the location of longitude.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

Solar cycle dependence of the heliospheric shape deduced from a global MHD simulation of the interaction process between a nonuniform time-dependent solar wind and the local interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.

1999-06-01

The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.

Dynamo generation of magnetic fields in three-dimensional space - Solar cycle main flux tube formation and reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, H.

1983-08-01

The case of the solar magnetic cycle is investigated as a prototype of the dynamo processes involved in the generation of magnetic fields in astrophysics. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are solved using a numerical method with a prescribed velocity field in order follow the movement and deformation. It is shown that a simple combination of differential rotation and global convection, given by a linear analysis of fluid dynamics in a rotating sphere, can perpetually create and reverse great magnetic flux tubes encircling the sun. These main flux tubes of the solar cycle are the progenitors of small-scale flux ropes of the solar activity. These findings indicate that magnetic fields can be generated by fluid motions and that MHD equations have a new type of oscillatory solution. It is shown that the solar cycle can be identified with one of these oscillatory solutions. It is proposed that the formation of magnetic flux tubes by streaming plasma flows is a universal mechanism of flux tube formation in astrophysics.

Solar Energy Task Force Report on Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, J. Kevin

The Solar Energy Task Force Report summarizes data, information, and discussions focusing on solar space and water heating applications. The report is intended to fill a need for curriculum and course development and direction for technical training programs, especially in vocational/technical schools and community colleges. It addresses…

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2004-01-01

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, A. T.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.

In the heliosheath (HS), Voyager 2 has observed a flow with constant radial velocity and magnetic flux conservation. Voyager 1, however, has observed a decrease in the flow’s radial velocity and an order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux. We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variation of the magnetic field strength on the magnetic flux within the HS using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/SWAN and interplanetary scintillations data and implemented solar cycle variations of the magnetic fieldmore » derived from 27 day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database. With the inclusion of the solar cycle time-dependent magnetic field intensity, the model matches the observed intensity of the magnetic field in the HS along both Voyager 1 and 2. This is a significant improvement from the same model without magnetic field solar cycle variations, which was over a factor of two larger. The model accurately predicts the radial velocity observed by Voyager 2; however, the model predicts a flow speed ∼100 km s{sup −1} larger than that derived from LECP measurements at Voyager 1. In the model, magnetic flux is conserved along both Voyager trajectories, contrary to observations. This implies that the solar cycle variations in solar wind magnetic field observed at 1 AU does not cause the order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux observed in the Voyager 1 data.« less

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Longitudinal Waves Drive the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Orvin

2000-05-01

In Physics Essays 12: 3-10 I explain the placement of the planets in terms of low velocity waves emitted by the sun. Evidence for the wave pulse generated near the center of the sun is indicated by the initial high latitude sunspots observed on the butterfly diagram. The wave pulse carries charge with it as observed for similar waves in plants (W-waves). For the first half cycle negative charge is carried to the surface of the sun where much of the wave pulse radiates a wave crest into space while the charge slowly redistributes itself. Meanwhile the next wave pulse carrying excess positive charge moves outward. Rotating charge determines the polarity of the sun's magnetic poles so they reverse as the pulse moves outward. The wave pulse, which interacts strongly with force fields, is guided by centripetal force and gravity so that the pulse comes out near the sun's equator. W-waves produce an automatic return wave in the vacuum so that standing waves are produced in the space around the sun providing a template for the formation and stabilization planets. W-waves are hypothesized to provide self organization for both the universe and life. See the

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2017-07-01

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

An Empirical Orthogonal Function Reanalysis of the Northern Polar External and Induced Magnetic Field During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2018-01-01

We apply the method of data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to ground-based magnetic vector data from the SuperMAG archive to produce a series of month length reanalyses of the surface external and induced magnetic field (SEIMF) in 110,000 km2 equal-area bins over the entire northern polar region at 5 min cadence over solar cycle 23, from 1997.0 to 2009.0. Each EOF reanalysis also decomposes the measured SEIMF variation into a hierarchy of spatiotemporal patterns which are ordered by their contribution to the monthly magnetic field variance. We find that the leading EOF patterns can each be (subjectively) interpreted as well-known SEIMF systems or their equivalent current systems. The relationship of the equivalent currents to the true current flow is not investigated. We track the leading SEIMF or equivalent current systems of similar type by intermonthly spatial correlation and apply graph theory to (objectively) group their appearance and relative importance throughout a solar cycle, revealing seasonal and solar cycle variation. In this way, we identify the spatiotemporal patterns that maximally contribute to SEIMF variability over a solar cycle. We propose this combination of EOF and graph theory as a powerful method for objectively defining and investigating the structure and variability of the SEIMF or their equivalent ionospheric currents for use in both geomagnetism and space weather applications. It is demonstrated here on solar cycle 23 but is extendable to any epoch with sufficient data coverage.

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cliver, E. W.; Cane, H. V.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.