The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin

2018-06-01

We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

PubMed

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousef, Shahinaz M.

2005-03-01

Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly.

Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, L.

2013-05-01

Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented.

Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lodhi, M. A. K.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.

Global Solar Magnetology and Reference Points of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.

2003-11-01

The solar cycle can be described as a complex interaction of large-scale/global and local magnetic fields. In general, this approach agrees with the traditional dynamo scheme, although there are numerous discrepancies in the details. Integrated magnetic indices introduced earlier are studied over long time intervals, and the epochs of the main reference points of the solar cycles are refined. A hypothesis proposed earlier concerning global magnetometry and the natural scale of the cycles is verified. Variations of the heliospheric magnetic field are determined by both the integrated photospheric i(B r )ph and source surface i(B r )ss indices, however, their roles are different. Local fields contribute significantly to the photospheric index determining the total increase in the heliospheric magnetic field. The i(B r )ss index (especially the partial index ZO, which is related to the quasi-dipolar field) determines narrow extrema. These integrated indices supply us with a “passport” for reference points, making it possible to identify them precisely. A prominent dip in the integrated indices is clearly visible at the cycle maximum, resulting in the typical double-peak form (the Gnevyshev dip), with the succeeding maximum always being higher than the preceding maximum. At the source surface, this secondary maximum significantly exceeds the primary maximum. Using these index data, we can estimate the progression expected for the 23rd cycle and predict the dates of the ends of the 23rd and 24th cycles (the middle of 2007 and December 2018, respectively).

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Actividad solar del ciclo 23. Predicción del máximo y fase decreciente utilizando redes neuronales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, M. A.; Ceccatto, H. A.; Piacentini, R. D.; García, P. J.

Different methods have been proposed in order to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycles, either as a consequence of the intrinsic importance of this event and because of its relation with solar storms and possible effects upon satellites, communication systems, etc. In this work, a neural network solar activity prediction is presented, measured through the sunspot number (SSN). The 16-units neural network, with a 12:3:1 architecture, was trained in a ``feed-forward" propagation way and learning by the so called ``back propagation rule". The annual mean SSN data in the 1700-1975 and 1987-1998 periods were used as the training set. The solar cycle 21 (1976-1986) was taken as the cross-validation data set. After performing the network training we obtained a prediction of the maximum annual mean for the current solar cycle 23, SSNmax= 135 ±17 at the year 2000, which is 13% smaller than the International Consensus Commitee's mean maximum prediction obtained through ``precursor techniques". On the other hand, our prediction is only about 4% smaller than the Consensus's neural network mean prediction. A ``multiple step" prediction technique was also performed and SSN annual mean predicted values for the near-maximum (from the present year 1999 to beyond the maximum) and the declining activity of solar cycle 23 are presented in this work. The sensibility of predictions is also tested. To do so, we changed the interval width and comparated our results with those of a previous neural network prediction and those of others authors using differents methods.

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern hemisphere temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Ribera, Pedro

2003-01-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated - a result assumed up to the moment - but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 14557-14560] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases.

Using Polar Coronal Hole Area Measurements to Determine the Solar Polar Magnetic Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karna, N.; Webber, S.A. Hess; Pesnell, W.D.

2014-01-01

An analysis of solar polar coronal hole (PCH) areas since the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows how the polar regions have evolved during Solar Cycle 24. We present PCH areas from mid-2010 through 2013 using data from the Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard SDO. Our analysis shows that both the northern and southern PCH areas have decreased significantly in size since 2010. Linear fits to the areas derived from the magnetic-field properties indicate that, although the northern hemisphere went through polar-field reversal and reached solar-maximum conditions in mid-2012, the southern hemisphere had not reached solar-maximum conditions in the polar regions by the end of 2013. Our results show that solar-maximum conditions in each hemisphere, as measured by the area of the polar coronal holes and polar magnetic field, will be offset in time.

Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

1992-01-01

The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal ( 0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Tao, J.; Zong, Q.; Li, G.; Salem, C. S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C.; Bale, S. D.

2016-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND/3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Quiet-time Suprathermal (~0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Salem, Chadi S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart D.

2016-03-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24: A Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, N. J.; Jain, R.

2017-12-01

The space weather is largely affected due to explosions on the Sun viz. solar flares and CMEs, which, however, in turn depend upon the magnitude of the solar activity i e. number of sunspots and their magnetic configuration. Owing to these space weather effects, predictions of sunspot cycle are important. Precursor techniques, particularly employing geomagnetic indices, are often used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude of a sunspot cycle. Based on the average geomagnetic activity index aa (since 1868 onwards) for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, Bhatt et al. (2009) made two predictions for sunspot cycle 24 considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum: (i) The annual maximum amplitude would be 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy) indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23, and (ii) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum would be in October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). However, observations reveal that the sunspot minima extended up to 2009, and the maximum amplitude attained is 79, with a monthly mean sunspot number maximum of 102.3 in February 2014. In view of the observations and particularly owing to the extended solar minimum in 2009, we re-examined our prediction model and revised the prediction results. We find that (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 71.2 ± 19.6 and (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months. We discuss our failure and success aspects and present improved predictions for the maximum amplitude as well as for the timing, which are now in good agreement with the observations. Also, we present the limitations of our forecasting in the view of long term predictions. We show if year of sunspot minimum activity and magnitude of geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum are taken correctly then our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator to forecast the sunspot amplitude of the following solar cycle. References:Bhatt, N.J., Jain, R. & Aggarwal, M.: 2009, Sol. Phys. 260, 225

Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.

2016-10-01

The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.

2011-04-10

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

2015-06-01

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

2014-12-01

The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Maximum performance of solar heat engines: Discussion of thermodynamic availability and other second law considerations and their implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, R. F.

1985-09-01

A review of thermodynamic principles is given in an effort to see if these concepts may indicate possibilities for improvements in solar central receiver power plants. Aspects related to rate limitations in cycles, thermodynamic availability of solar radiation, and sink temperature considerations are noted. It appears that considerably higher instantaneous plant efficiencies are possible by raising the maximum temperature and lowering the minimum temperature of the cycles. Of course, many practical engineering problems will have to be solved to realize the promised benefits.

OCCURRENCE OF HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS OVER THE GRAND MODERN MAXIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mursula, K.; Holappa, L.; Lukianova, R., E-mail: kalevi.mursula@oulu.fi

2015-03-01

In the declining phase of the solar cycle (SC), when the new-polarity fields of the solar poles are strengthened by the transport of same-signed magnetic flux from lower latitudes, the polar coronal holes expand and form non-axisymmetric extensions toward the solar equator. These extensions enhance the occurrence of high-speed solar wind (SW) streams (HSS) and related co-rotating interaction regions in the low-latitude heliosphere, and cause moderate, recurrent geomagnetic activity (GA) in the near-Earth space. Here, using a novel definition of GA at high (polar cap) latitudes and the longest record of magnetic observations at a polar cap station, we calculatemore » the annually averaged SW speeds as proxies for the effective annual occurrence of HSS over the whole Grand Modern Maximum (GMM) from 1920s onward. We find that a period of high annual speeds (frequent occurrence of HSS) occurs in the declining phase of each of SCs 16-23. For most cycles the HSS activity clearly reaches a maximum in one year, suggesting that typically only one strong activation leading to a coronal hole extension is responsible for the HSS maximum. We find that the most persistent HSS activity occurred in the declining phase of SC 18. This suggests that cycle 19, which marks the sunspot maximum period of the GMM, was preceded by exceptionally strong polar fields during the previous sunspot minimum. This gives interesting support for the validity of solar dynamo theory during this dramatic period of solar magnetism.« less

Influence of geomagnetic activity and atmospheric pressure on human arterial pressure during the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azcárate, T.; Mendoza, B.; Levi, J. R.

2016-11-01

We performed a study of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) arterial blood pressure behavior under natural variables such as the atmospheric pressure (AtmP) and the horizontal geomagnetic field component (H). We worked with a sample of 304 healthy normotense volunteers, 152 men and 152 women, with ages between 18 and 84 years in Mexico City during the period 2008-2014, corresponding to the minimum, ascending and maximum phases of the solar cycle 24. The data was divided by gender, age and day/night cycle. We studied the time series using three methods: Correlations, bivariate and superposed epochs (within a window of three days around the day of occurrence of a geomagnetic storm) analysis, between the SBP and DBP and the natural variables (AtmP and H). The correlation analysis indicated correlation between the SBP and DBP and AtmP and H, being the largest during the night. Furthermore, the correlation and bivariate analysis showed that the largest correlations are between the SBP and DBP and the AtmP. The superposed epoch analysis found that the largest number of significant SBP and DBP changes occurred for women. Finally, the blood pressure changes are larger during the solar minimum and ascending solar cycle phases than during the solar maximum; the storms of the minimum were more intense than those of the maximum and this could be the reason of behavior of the blood pressure changes along the solar cycle.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A. Q.; Wang, J. X.; Li, J. W.; Feynman, J.; Zhang, J.

2011-10-01

Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims: We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods: We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21-23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19-23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19-23 are studied statistically. Results: Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21-23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. The latitudinal distributions of SARs display the Maunder butterfly diagrams and SARs occur preferentially in the maximum period of each solar cycle. Northern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 19 and 20 and southern hemisphere SARs dominated in solar cycles 21 and 22. In solar cycle 23, however, SARs occurred about equally in each hemisphere. There are two active longitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, about 160°-200° apart. Applying the improved dynamic reference frame to SARs, we find that SARs rotate faster than the Carrington rate and there is no significant difference between the two hemispheres. The synodic periods are 27.19 days and 27.25 days for the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The longitudinal distribution of SARs is significantly non-axisymmetric and about 75% SARs occurred near two active longitudes with half widths of 45°. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Repeated Structures Found After the Solar Maximum in the Butterfly Diagrams of Coronal Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, M. Y.; Storini, M.

2003-09-01

The influence of the solar cycle evolution on the coronal hole space-time distribution is well known, for polar as well as for equatorial isolated sources of high speed solar wind. Among them the long-lived coronal holes occurrence from the sunspot cycle 21 on is investigated, using the coronal hole catalogue based on HeI (1083 nm) observations (Sanchez-Ibarra and Barraza-Paredes). In at least these two solar cycles (n. 21 and n. 22) a similar structure in the latitude-time diagram of coronal holes is found. The area occurs shortly after the solar maximum at around ~35° heliolatitude and consists of over several Carrington Rotations stable coronal holes (>5 Carr. Rot.s). The diagonal disappears 2-3 years later at the helioequator. Furthermore, the analysis results in a close relation between long-lived isolated coronal holes and the soft X-class flares.

QUIET-TIME SUPRATHERMAL (∼0.1–1.5 keV) ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR WIND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang

2016-03-20

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (∼0.1–1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ∼0.1–1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature T{sub eff}. We also calculate the number density n and average energy E{sub avg} of strahl andmore » halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ∼0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and T{sub eff} for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity)« less

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Solar cycle dependence of the heliospheric shape deduced from a global MHD simulation of the interaction process between a nonuniform time-dependent solar wind and the local interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.

1999-06-01

The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Exposure to galactic cosmic radiation and solar energetic particles.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, D

2007-01-01

Several investigations of the radiation field at aircraft altitudes have been undertaken during solar cycle 23 which occurred in the period 1993-2003. The radiation field is produced by the passage of galactic cosmic rays and their nuclear reaction products as well as solar energetic particles through the Earth's atmosphere. Galactic cosmic rays reach a maximum intensity when the sun is least active and are at minimum intensity during solar maximum period. During solar maximum an increased number of coronal mass ejections and solar flares produce high energy solar particles which can also penetrate down to aircraft altitudes. It is found that the very complicated field resulting from these processes varies with altitude, latitude and stage of solar cycle. By employing several active and passive detectors, the whole range of radiation types and energies were encompassed. In-flight data was obtained with the co-operation of many airlines and NASA. The EURADOS Aircraft Crew in-flight data base was used for comparison with the predictions of various computer codes. A brief outline of some recent studies of exposure to radiation in Earth orbit will conclude this contribution.

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2004-01-01

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.

2017-12-01

Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.

Long periods (1 -10 mHz) geomagnetic pulsations variation with solar cycle in South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon Silva, Willian; Schuch, Nelson Jorge; Guimarães Dutra, Severino Luiz; Babulal Trivedi, Nalin; Claudir da Silva, Andirlei; Souza Savian, Fernando; Ronan Coelho Stekel, Tardelli; de Siqueira, Josemar; Espindola Antunes, Cassio

The occurrence and intensity of the geomagnetic pulsations Pc-5 (2-7 mHz) and its relationship with the solar cycle in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly -SAMA is presented. The study of geomagnetic pulsations is important to help the understanding of the physical processes that occurs in the magnetosphere region and help to predict geomagnetic storms. The fluxgate mag-netometers H, D and Z, three axis geomagnetic field data from the Southern Space Observatory -SSO/CRS/INPE -MCT, São Martinho da Serra (29.42° S, 53.87° W, 480m a.s.l.), RS, Brasil, a were analyzed and correlated with the solar wind parameters (speed, density and temperature) from the ACE and SOHO satellites. A digital filtering to enhance the 2-7 mHz geomagnetic pulsations was used. Five quiet days and five perturbed days in the solar minimum and in the solar maximum were selected for this analysis. The days were chosen based on the IAGA definition and on the Bartels Musical Diagrams (Kp index) for 2001 (solar maximum) and 2008 (solar minimum). The biggest Pc-5 amplitude averages differences between the H-component is 78,35 nT for the perturbed days and 1,60nT for the quiet days during the solar maximum. For perturbed days the average amplitude during the solar minimum is 8,32 nT, confirming a direct solar cycle influence in the geomagnetic pulsations intensity for long periods.

ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.

2013-06-20

We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less

Galactic CR in the Heliosphere according to NM data, 3. Results for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L.; Dorman, I.; Iucci, N.; Parisi, M.; Villoresi, G.; Zukerman, I.

We found that the maximum of correlation coefficient between cosmic ray (CR) intensity and solar activity (SA) variations is occurred for even cycles 20 and 22 for about two-three times in the shorter time than for odd cycles 19 and 21. We came to conclusion that this difference is caused by CR drift effects: during even cycle drifts produced the small increasing of CR global modulation (additional to the caused by convection-diffusion mechanism) in the period from minimum to maximum of SA, and after the maximum of SA up to the minimum- about the same decreasing of CR modulation. This gives sufficient decreasing of observed time lag between CR and- SA in even solar cycles. We analyzed monthly and 11 months smoothed data of (CR) intensity observed by neutron monitors with different cut-off rigidities for even solar cycles 20 and 22. We use a special model described the connection between solar activity (characterized by monthly sunspot numbers) and CR convection- diff usion global modulation with taking into account time-lag of processes in the Heliosphere relative to the active processes on the Sun. For taking into account drifts we use models described in literature. In the first we correct observed long-term CR modulation on drifts with different amplitudes from 0 (no drifts), then 0.15%, 0.25%,... up to 4%. For each expected amplitude of drifts we determine the correlation coefficient between expected CR variations and observed by neutron monitors with different cut - off rigidities for different times of solar wind transportation from the Sun to the boundary of the modulation region from 1 to 60 average months (it corresponds approximately to dimension of modulation region from about 6 to 360 AU). We compare observed res ults for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

Proton Fluxes Measured by the PAMELA Experiment from the Minimum to the Maximum Solar Activity for Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, M.; Munini, R.; Boezio, M.; Di Felice, V.; Adriani, O.; Barbarino, G. C.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Bellotti, R.; Bongi, M.; Bonvicini, V.; Bottai, S.; Bruno, A.; Cafagna, F.; Campana, D.; Carlson, P.; Casolino, M.; Castellini, G.; De Santis, C.; Galper, A. M.; Karelin, A. V.; Koldashov, S. V.; Koldobskiy, S.; Krutkov, S. Y.; Kvashnin, A. N.; Leonov, A.; Malakhov, V.; Marcelli, L.; Marcelli, N.; Mayorov, A. G.; Menn, W.; Mergè, M.; Mikhailov, V. V.; Mocchiutti, E.; Monaco, A.; Mori, N.; Osteria, G.; Panico, B.; Papini, P.; Pearce, M.; Picozza, P.; Ricci, M.; Ricciarini, S. B.; Simon, M.; Sparvoli, R.; Spillantini, P.; Stozhkov, Y. I.; Vacchi, A.; Vannuccini, E.; Vasilyev, G.; Voronov, S. A.; Yurkin, Y. T.; Zampa, G.; Zampa, N.; Potgieter, M. S.; Raath, J. L.

2018-02-01

Precise measurements of the time-dependent intensity of the low-energy (<50 GeV) galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are fundamental to test and improve the models that describe their propagation inside the heliosphere. In particular, data spanning different solar activity periods, i.e., from minimum to maximum, are needed to achieve comprehensive understanding of such physical phenomena. The minimum phase between solar cycles 23 and 24 was peculiarly long, extending up to the beginning of 2010 and followed by the maximum phase, reached during early 2014. In this Letter, we present proton differential spectra measured from 2010 January to 2014 February by the PAMELA experiment. For the first time the GCR proton intensity was studied over a wide energy range (0.08–50 GeV) by a single apparatus from a minimum to a maximum period of solar activity. The large statistics allowed the time variation to be investigated on a nearly monthly basis. Data were compared and interpreted in the context of a state-of-the-art three-dimensional model describing the GCRs propagation through the heliosphere.

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.

2008-05-01

It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal (˜0.1 - 200 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linghua; Yang, Liu; Tao, Jiawei; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart

2017-04-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-200 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. The observed energy spectrum of both (beaming) strahl and (isotropic) halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV generally fits to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff, while the observed energy spectrum of nearly isotropic superhalo electrons at ˜20-200 keV generally fits to a power-law function, J ˜ E-β. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl density and halo density. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. For the superhalo population, the spectral index β ranges from ˜1.6 to ˜3.7 and the integrated density nsup ranges from 10-8 cm-3 to 10-5 cm-3, with no clear association with the sunspot number. In solar cycle 23 (24), the distribution of β has a broad maximum between 2.4 and 2.8 (2.0 and 2.4). All the strahl, halo and superhalo populations show no obvious correlation with the solar wind core population. These results reflect the nature of the generation of solar wind suprathermal electrons.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Influence of Different Solar Drivers on the Winds in the Middle Atmosphere and on Geomagnetic Disturbances

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-18

number and intensity are highest in sunspot maximum. CME’s are considered the sources of the most intense geomagnetic storms (Gonzalez et al., 2002... storm . High speed solar wind The geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of the solar cycle can be even higher that at sunspot maximum. In...characteristic “calm before the storm ” – the decrease a couple of days before the maximum disturbance – in the case of high speed streams (Borovsky and

Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.

2016-03-25

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less

Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-01-01

We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.

LASCO Observations Of The K-Corona From Solar Minimum To Solar Maximum And Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Michael D.; Howard, Russell A.

2003-09-01

The LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs on SOHO have been recording a regular series of images of the corona since May 1996. This sequence of data covers the period of solar minimum, the increase to solar maximum, and the beginning of the decline toward the next solar minimum. The images have been analyzed to determine the brightness of the K-corona (solar photons Thomson scattered from free electrons). The total brightness of the K-corona is approximately constant from May 1996 through May 1997. The brightness is then seen to increase steadily until early in the year 2000. The structure of the K-corona changes dramatically with solar cycle. The shape as seen in C2 becomes almost circular at solar maximum while the C3 images continue to show equatorial streamers. The magnitude of the solar cycle variation decreases as the height increases. We present data animations (movies) to show the large-scale structure. We have inverted 28-day averages of the white light images to determine radial profiles of electron density. We present these electron profiles, show how they vary as a function of both latitude and time, and compare our observed profiles with other models and observations.

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webber, Hess S. A.; Karna, N.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kirk, M. S.

2014-01-01

Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010.

Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

Estimate of Solar Maximum Using the 1-8 Angstrom Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites X-Ray Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-12

AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2015-0005 TR-2015-0005 ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1–8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X... Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites X-Ray Measurements (Postprint) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61102F 6...of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental

Global conditions in the solar corona from 2010 to 2017

PubMed Central

Morgan, Huw; Taroyan, Youra

2017-01-01

Through reduction of a huge data set spanning 2010–2017, we compare mean global changes in temperature, emission measure (EM), and underlying photospheric magnetic field of the solar corona over most of the last activity cycle. The quiet coronal mean temperature rises from 1.4 to 1.8 MK, whereas EM increases by almost a factor of 50% from solar minimum to maximum. An increased high-temperature component near 3 MK at solar maximum drives the increase in quiet coronal mean temperature, whereas the bulk of the plasma remains near 1.6 MK throughout the cycle. The mean, spatially smoothed magnitude of the quiet Sun magnetic field rises from 1.6 G in 2011 to peak at 2.0 G in 2015. Active region conditions are highly variable, but their mean remains approximately constant over the cycle, although there is a consistent decrease in active region high-temperature emission (near 3 MK) between the peak of solar maximum and present. Active region mean temperature, EM, and magnetic field magnitude are highly correlated. Correlation between sunspot/active region area and quiet coronal conditions shows the important influence of decaying sunspots in driving global changes, although we find no appreciable delay between changes in active region area and quiet Sun magnetic field strength. The hot coronal contribution to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is dominated by the quiet corona throughout most of the cycle, whereas the high variability is driven by active regions. Solar EUV irradiance cannot be predicted accurately by sunspot index alone, highlighting the need for continued measurements. PMID:28740861

An early prediction of 25th solar cycle using Hurst exponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. K.; Bhargawa, Asheesh

2017-11-01

The analysis of long memory processes in solar activity, space weather and other geophysical phenomena has been a major issue even after the availability of enough data. We have examined the data of various solar parameters like sunspot numbers, 10.7 cm radio flux, solar magnetic field, proton flux and Alfven Mach number observed for the year 1976-2016. We have done the statistical test for persistence of solar activity based on the value of Hurst exponent (H) which is one of the most classical applied methods known as rescaled range analysis. We have discussed the efficiency of this methodology as well as prediction content for next solar cycle based on long term memory. In the present study, Hurst exponent analysis has been used to investigate the persistence of above mentioned (five) solar activity parameters and a simplex projection analysis has been used to predict the ascension time and the maximum number of counts for 25th solar cycle. For available dataset of the year 1976-2016, we have calculated H = 0.86 and 0.82 for sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux respectively. Further we have calculated maximum number of counts for sunspot numbers and F10.7 cm index as 102.8± 24.6 and 137.25± 8.9 respectively. Using the simplex projection analysis, we have forecasted that the solar cycle 25th would start in the year 2021 (January) and would last up to the year 2031 (September) with its maxima in June 2024.

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

1988-01-01

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efimenko, V. M.; Lozitsky, V. G.

2018-06-01

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf's numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946-1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44 years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44 years.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Dynamic Power Spectral Analysis of Solar Measurements from Photospheric, Chromospheric, and Coronal Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouwer, S. D.; Pap, J.; Donnelly, R. F.

1990-01-01

An important aspect in the power spectral analysis of solar variability is the quasistationary and quasiperiodic nature of solar periodicities. In other words, the frequency, phase, and amplitude of solar periodicities vary on time scales ranging from active region lifetimes to solar cycle time scales. Here, researchers employ a dynamic, or running, power spectral density analysis to determine many periodicities and their time-varying nature in the projected area of active sunspot groups (S sub act). The Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (SMM/ACRIM) total solar irradiance (S), the Nimbus-7 MgII center-to-wing ratio (R (MgII sub c/w)), the Ottawa 10.7 cm flux (F sub 10.7), and the GOES background x ray flux (X sub b) for the maximum, descending, and minimum portions of solar cycle 21 (i.e., 1980 to 1986) are used. The technique dramatically illustrates several previously unrecognized periodicities. For example, a relatively stable period at about 51 days has been found in those indices which are related to emerging magnetic fields. The majority of solar periodicities, particularly around 27, 150 and 300 days, are quasiperiodic because they vary in amplitude and frequency throughout the solar cycle. Finally, it is shown that there are clear differences between the power spectral densities of solar measurements from photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal sources.

Estimation of the solar Lyman alpha flux from ground based measurements of the Ca II K line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rottman, G. J.; Livingston, W. C.; White, O. R.

1990-01-01

Measurements of the solar Lyman alpha and Ca II K from October 1981 to April 1989 show a strong correlation (r = 0.95) that allows estimation of the Lyman alpha flux at 1 AU from 1975 to December 1989. The estimated Lyman alpha strength of 3.9 x 10 to the 11th + or - 0.15 x 10 to the 11th photons/s sq cm on December 7, 1989 is at the same maximum levels seen in Cycle 21. Relative to other UV surrogates (sunspot number, 10.7 cm radio flux, and He I 10830 line strength), Lyman alpha estimates computed from the K line track the SME measurements well from solar maximum, through solar minimum, and into Cycle 22.

Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.

Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

1978-01-01

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

Comparison of substorms near two solar cycle maxima: (1999-2000 and 2012-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Despirak, I.; Lubchich, A.; Kleimenova, N.

2016-05-01

We present the comparative analysis of the substorm behavior during two solar cycle maxima. The substorms, observed during the large solar cycle maximum (1999- 2000, with Wp> 100) and during the last maximum (2012-2013 with Wp~60), were studied. The considered substorms were divided into 3 types according to auroral oval dynamic. First type - substorms which are observed only at auroral latitudes ("usual" substorms); second type - substorms which propagate from auroral latitudes (<70?) to polar geomagnetic latitudes (>70°) ("expanded" substorms, according to expanded oval); third type - substorms which are observed only at latitudes above ~70° in the absence of simultaneous geomagnetic disturbances below 70° ("polar" substorms, according to contracted oval). Over 1700 substorm events have been analyzed. The following substorm characteristics have been studied: (i) the seasonal variations, (ii) the latitudinal range of the occurrence, (iii) solar wind and IMF parameters before substorm onset, (iiii) PC-index before substorm onset. Thus, the difference between two solar activity maxima could be seen in the difference of substorm behavior in these periods as well.

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Near-Earth Solar Wind During 1996-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.

2003-01-01

We summarize the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996-2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23. In particular, we give a detailed list of such events. This list, based on in-situ observations, is not confined to subsets of ICMEs, such as magnetic clouds or those preceded by halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph, and provides an overview of 214 ICMEs in the near-Earth solar wind during this period. The ICME rate increases by about an order of magnitude from solar minimum to solar maximum (when the rate is approximately 3 ICMEs/solar rotation period). The rate also shows a temporary reduction during 1999, and another brief, deeper reduction in late 2000-early 2001, which only approximately track variations in the solar 10 cm flux. In addition, there are occasional periods of several rotations duration when the ICME rate is enhanced in association with high solar activity levels. We find an indication of a periodic variation in the ICME rate, with a prominent period of approximately 165 days similar to that previously reported in various solar phenomena. It is found that the fraction of ICMEs that are magnetic clouds has a solar cycle variation, the fraction being larger near solar minimum. For the subset of events that we could associate with a CME at the Sun, the transit speeds from the Sun to the Earth were highest after solar maximum.

How active was solar cycle 22?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

1993-01-01

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M., E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed, E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i

2010-07-01

We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find thatmore » the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.« less

Interpretation of 3He variations in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Geiss, J.; Bochsler, P.

1983-01-01

The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of 3He flares occurred during this time.

Interpretation of He-3 abundance variations in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.

1984-01-01

The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of He-3 flares occurred during this time.

Application of the Maximum Amplitude-Early Rise Correlation to Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2004-01-01

On the basis of the maximum amplitude-early rise correlation, cycle 23 could have been predicted to be about the size of the mean cycle as early as 12 mo following cycle minimum. Indeed, estimates for the size of cycle 23 throughout its rise consistently suggested a maximum amplitude that would not differ appreciably from the mean cycle, contrary to predictions based on precursor information. Because cycle 23 s average slope during the rising portion of the solar cycle measured 2.4, computed as the difference between the conventional maximum (120.8) and minimum (8) amplitudes divided by the ascent duration in months (47), statistically speaking, it should be a cycle of shorter period. Hence, conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 should occur before December 2006, probably near July 2006 (+/-4 mo). However, if cycle 23 proves to be a statistical outlier, then conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 would be delayed until after July 2007, probably near December 2007 (+/-4 mo). In anticipation of cycle 24, a chart and table are provided for easy monitoring of the nearness and size of its maximum amplitude once onset has occurred (with respect to the mean cycle and using the updated maximum amplitude-early rise relationship).

The Causes of Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

1998-01-01

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine (1852).

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

2005-03-08

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solarmore » minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.« less

Statistical Comparison of Anomalous Cosmic Rays and Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Recently Consecutive Unusual Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) carry crucial information on the coupling between solar wind and interstellar medium, as well as cosmic ray modulation within the heliosphere. Due to the distinct origins and modulation processes, the spectra and abundance of ACRs are significantly different from that of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Since the launch of NASA's ACE spacecraft in 1997, its CRIS and SIS instruments have continuously recorded GCR and ACR intensities of several elemental heavy-ions, spanning the whole cycle 23 and the cycle 24 maximum. Here we present a statistical comparison of ACR and GCR observed by ACE spacecraft and their possible relation to solar activity. While the differential flux of ACR also exhibits apparent anti-correlation with solar activity level, the flux of the latest prolonged solar minimum (year 2009) is approximately 5% lower than its previous solar minimum (year 1997). And the minimal level of ACR flux appears in year 2004, instead of year 2001 with the strongest solar activities. The negative indexes of the power law spectra within the energy range from 5 to 30 MeV/nuc also vary with time. The spectra get harder during the solar minimum but softer during the solar maximum. The approaching solar minimum of cycle 24 is believed to resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum with extremely low solar activity (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Therefore, the different characteristics of ACRs between the coming solar minimum and the previous minimum are also of great interest. Finally, we will also discuss the possible solar-modulation processes which is responsible for different modulation of ACR and GCR, especially the roles played by diffusion and drifts. The comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the physical modulation process within the heliosphere under opposite solar polarity and variable solar activity levels.

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

1989-01-01

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

Long dance of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.

2006-02-01

In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal.

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections accompanied by Deca-Hectometric type II radio burst for two solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharayat, Hema; Prasad, Lalan; Pant, Sumit

2018-05-01

The aim of present study is to find the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio burst for the period 1997-2014 (solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of solar cycle 24). We have used a statistical analysis and found that 10-20∘ latitudinal belt of northern region and 80-90∘ longitudinal belts of western region of the sun are more effective for flare-CME accompanied by DH type II radio burst events. M-class flares (52%) are in good association with the CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst. Further, we have calculated the flare position and found that most frequent flare site is at the center of the CME span. However, the occurrence probability of all flares is maximum outside the CME span. X-class flare associated CMEs have maximum speed than that of M, C, and B-class flare associated CMEs. We have also found a good correlation between flare position and central position angle of CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst.

Space weather influence on the agriculture technology and wheat prices in the medieval England (1259-1703) through cosmic ray/solar activity cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.; Yom Din, G.

2003-04-01

The database of Professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity variations. The main object of our statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. Our study shows that bursts and troughs of wheat prices take place at extreme states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by cosmic ray intensity solar cycle variations, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. The medians of both samples have the values of 11.00 and 10.7 years; standard deviations are 1.44 and 1.53 years for prices and for solar activity, respectively. The hypothesis that the frequency distributions are the same for both of the samples have significance level >95%. In the next step we analyzed direct links between wheat prices and cosmic ray cycle variations in the 17th Century, for which both wheat prices and cosmic ray intensity (derived from Be-10 isotope data) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums (cosmic ray intensity maximums) the observed prices were higher than prices for the seven intervals of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation). This result, combined with the conclusion of similarity of statistical properties of the price and solar activity extremes can be considered as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity extremes.

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

SOLAR WIND HEAVY IONS OVER SOLAR CYCLE 23: ACE/SWICS MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zurbuchen, T. H.

2013-05-01

Solar wind plasma and compositional properties reflect the physical properties of the corona and its evolution over time. Studies comparing the previous solar minimum with the most recent, unusual solar minimum indicate that significant environmental changes are occurring globally on the Sun. For example, the magnetic field decreased 30% between the last two solar minima, and the ionic charge states of O have been reported to change toward lower values in the fast wind. In this work, we systematically and comprehensively analyze the compositional changes of the solar wind during cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010 while the Sun movedmore » from solar maximum to solar minimum. We find a systematic change of C, O, Si, and Fe ionic charge states toward lower ionization distributions. We also discuss long-term changes in elemental abundances and show that there is a {approx}50% decrease of heavy ion abundances (He, C, O, Si, and Fe) relative to H as the Sun went from solar maximum to solar minimum. During this time, the relative abundances in the slow wind remain organized by their first ionization potential. We discuss these results and their implications for models of the evolution of the solar atmosphere, and for the identification of the fast and slow wind themselves.« less

Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes

2018-01-01

In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition.

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layden, A. C.; Fox, P. A.; Howard, J. M.; Sarajedini, A.; Schatten, K. H.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

The solar ionisation rate deduced from Ulysses measurements and its implications to interplanetary Lyman alpha-intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summanen, T.; Kyroelae, E.

1995-01-01

We have developed a computer code which can be used to study 3-dimensional and time-dependent effects of the solar cycle on the interplanetary (IP) hydrogen distribution. The code is based on the inverted Monte Carlo simulation. In this work we have modelled the temporal behaviour of the solar ionisation rate. We have assumed that during the most of the time of the solar cycle there is an anisotopic latitudinal structure but right at the solar maximum the anisotropy disappears. The effects of this behaviour will be discussed both in regard to the IP hydrogen distribution and IP Lyman a a-intensity.

Ion measurements during Pioneer Venus reentry: Implications for solar cycle variation of ion composition and dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grebowsky, J. M.; Hartle, R. E.; Kar, J.; Cloutier, P. A.; Taylor, H. A., Jr.; Brace, L. H.

1993-01-01

During the final, low solar activity phase of the Pioneer Venus (PV) mission, the Orbiter Ion Mass Spectrometer (OIMS) measurements found all ion species, in the midnight-dusk sector, reduced in concentration relative to that observed at solar maximum. Molecular ion species comprised a greater part of the total ion concentration as O(+) and H(+) had the greatest depletions. The nightside ionospheric states were strikingly similar to the isolated solar maximum 'disappearing' ionospheres. Both are very dynamic states characterized by a rapidly drifting plasma and 30-100 eV superthermal O(+) ions.

The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E.

1983-01-01

There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given.

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Mcpeters, Richard D.; Meade, Paul E.

1990-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visheratin, K. N.

2012-02-01

Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932-2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5-2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5-1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40-50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.

THE EFFECT OF A DYNAMIC INNER HELIOSHEATH THICKNESS ON COSMIC-RAY MODULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manuel, R.; Ferreira, S. E. S.; Potgieter, M. S., E-mail: rexmanuel@live.com

2015-02-01

The time-dependent modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere is studied over different polarity cycles by computing 2.5 GV proton intensities using a two-dimensional, time-dependent modulation model. By incorporating recent theoretical advances in the relevant transport parameters in the model, we showed in previous work that this approach gave realistic computed intensities over a solar cycle. New in this work is that a time dependence of the solar wind termination shock (TS) position is implemented in our model to study the effect of a dynamic inner heliosheath thickness (the region between the TS and heliopause) on the solar modulationmore » of galactic cosmic rays. The study reveals that changes in the inner heliosheath thickness, arising from a time-dependent shock position, does affect cosmic-ray intensities everywhere in the heliosphere over a solar cycle, with the smallest effect in the innermost heliosphere. A time-dependent TS position causes a phase difference between the solar activity periods and the corresponding intensity periods. The maximum intensities in response to a solar minimum activity period are found to be dependent on the time-dependent TS profile. It is found that changing the width of the inner heliosheath with time over a solar cycle can shift the time of when the maximum or minimum cosmic-ray intensities occur at various distances throughout the heliosphere, but more significantly in the outer heliosphere. The time-dependent extent of the inner heliosheath, as affected by solar activity conditions, is thus an additional time-dependent factor to be considered in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.« less

Simplified Solar Modulation Model of Inner Trapped Belt Proton Flux As a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Thomas L.; Lodhi, M. A. K.; Diaz, Abel B.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose. It has already been published in this journal that the absorbed dose rate, D, in the trapped belts exhibits a power law relationship, D = A(rho)(sup -n), where A is a constant, rho is the atmospheric density, and the index n is weakly dependent upon shielding. However, that method does not work for flux and fluence. Instead, we extend this idea by showing that the power law approximation for flux J is actually bivariant in energy E as well as density rho. The resulting relation is J(E,rho)approx.(sum of)A(E(sup n))rho(sup -n), with A itself a power law in E. This provides another method for calculating approximate proton flux and lifetime at any time in the solar cycle. These in turn can be used to predict the associated dose and dose rate.

QUASI-BIENNIAL MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laurenza, M.; Storini, M.; Vecchio, A.

2012-04-20

The time variability of the cosmic-ray (CR) intensity at three different rigidities has been analyzed through the empirical mode decomposition technique for the period 1964-2004. Apart from the {approx}11 yr cycle, quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) have been detected as a prominent scale of variability in CR data, as well as in the heliomagnetic field magnitude at 1 AU and in the sunspot area. The superposition of the {approx}11 yr and QBO contributions reproduces the general features of the CR modulation, such as most of the step-like decreases and the Gnevyshev Gap phenomenon. A significant correlation has also been found between QBOsmore » of the heliospheric magnetic field and the CR intensity during even solar activity cycles, suggesting that the former are responsible for step-like decreases in CR modulation, probably dominated by the particle diffusion/convection in such periods. In contrast, during odd-numbered cycles, no significant correlation is found. This could be explained with an enhanced drift effect also during the solar maximum or a greater influence of merged interaction regions at great heliocentric distances during odd cycles. Moreover, the QBOs of CR data are delayed with respect to sunspot activity, the lag being shorter for A > 0 periods of even cycles ({approx}1-4 months) than for A < 0 periods of odd cycles ({approx}7-9 months); we suggest that solar QBOs also affect the recovery of the CR intensity after the solar activity maximum.« less

Solar-cycle Variations of Meridional Flows in the Solar Convection Zone Using Helioseismic Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chia-Hsien; Chou, Dean-Yi

2018-06-01

The solar meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow in solar meridional planes, extending through the convection zone. Here we study its solar-cycle variations in the convection zone using SOHO/MDI helioseismic data from 1996 to 2010, including two solar minima and one maximum. The travel-time difference between northward and southward acoustic waves is related to the meridional flow along the wave path. Applying the ray approximation and the SOLA inversion method to the travel-time difference measured in a previous study, we obtain the meridional flow distributions in 0.67 ≤ r ≤ 0.96R ⊙ at the minimum and maximum. At the minimum, the flow has a three-layer structure: poleward in the upper convection zone, equatorward in the middle convection zone, and poleward again in the lower convection zone. The flow speed is close to zero within the error bar near the base of the convection zone. The flow distribution changes significantly from the minimum to the maximum. The change above 0.9R ⊙ shows two phenomena: first, the poleward flow speed is reduced at the maximum; second, an additional convergent flow centered at the active latitudes is generated at the maximum. These two phenomena are consistent with the surface meridional flow reported in previous studies. The change in flow extends all the way down to the base of the convection zone, and the pattern of the change below 0.9R ⊙ is more complicated. However, it is clear that the active latitudes play a role in the flow change: the changes in flow speed below and above the active latitudes have opposite signs. This suggests that magnetic fields could be responsible for the flow change.

Variability of the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of peak hard X-ray rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bai, T.

1993-01-01

We study the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of the hard X-ray peak count rate, using observations of the Solar Maximum Mission. The size distributions are well represented by power-law distributions with negative indices. As a better alternative to the conventional method, we devise a maximum likelihood method of determining the power-law index of the size distribution. We find that the power-law index of the size distribution changes with time and with the phase of the 154-day periodicity. The size distribution is steeper during the maximum years of solar cycle 21 (1980 and 1981) than during the declining phase (1982-1984). The size distribution, however, is flatter during the maximum phase of the 154-day periodicity than during the minimum phase. The implications of these findings are discussed.

High temperature solar photon engines. [heat engines for terrestrial and space-based solar power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hertzberg, A.; Decher, R.; Mattick, A. T.; Lau, C. V.

1978-01-01

High temperature heat engines designed to make maximum use of the thermodynamic potential of concentrated solar radiation are described. Plasmas between 2000 K and 4000 K can be achieved by volumetric absorption of radiation in alkali metal vapors, leading to thermal efficiencies up to 75% for terrestrial solar power plants and up to 50% for space power plants. Two machines capable of expanding hot plasmas using practical technology are discussed. A binary Rankine cycle uses fluid mechanical energy transfer in a device known as the 'Comprex' or 'energy exchanger.' The second machine utilizes magnetohydrodynamics in a Brayton cycle for space applications. Absorption of solar energy and plasma radiation losses are investigated for a solar superheater using potassium vapor.

Solar-Cycle Variability of Magnetosheath Fluctuations at Earth and Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, N. K.; Narita, Y.; Kovacs, P.

2014-12-01

The magnetosheath is a region between the bow-shock and magnetopause and the magnetosheath plasma is mostly in the turbulent state. In the present investigation we put an effort to closely examine the magnetosheath fluctuations dependency on the solar-cycles (solar-maximum and solar minimum) at the magnetized planetary body (Earth) and their comparison with the un-magnetized planetary body (Venus) for the solar minimum. We use the CLUSTER FGM data for the solar-maximum (2001-2002), solar-minimum (2006-2008) and Venus fluxgate magnetometer data for the solar-minimum (2006-2008) to perform a comparative statistical study on the energy spectra and probability density function (PDF) and asses the spectral features of the magnetic fluctuations of the both planetary bodies. In the comparison we study the relation between the inertial ranges of the spectra and the temporal scales of non-Gaussian magnetic fluctuations derived from PDF analyses. The first can refer to turbulent cascade dynamics, while the latter may indicate intermittency. We first transformed the magnetic field data into mean field aligned coordinate system with respect to the large-scale magnetic field direction and then after we compute the power spectral density with the help of Welch algorithm. The computed energy spectra of Earth's magnetosheath show a moderate variability with the solar-cycles and have a broader inertial range. However the estimated energy spectra for the solar-minimum at Venus give the clear evidence of the existence of the break point in the vicinity of the ion gyroradius. After the break-point the energy spectra become steeper and show a distinctive spectral scales which is interpreted as the realization of the begging of the energy cascade. We also briefly address the influence of turbulence on the plasma transport and wave dynamics responsible for the spectral break and predict spectral features of the energy spectra for the solar-maximum at Venus based on the results obtained for the solar-minimum. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement number 313038/STORM.

Solar maximum mission: Ground support programs at the Harvard Radio Astronomy Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maxwell, A.

1983-01-01

Observations of the spectral characteristics of solar radio bursts were made with new dynamic spectrum analyzers of high sensitivity and high reliability, over the frequency range 25-580 MHz. The observations also covered the maximum period of the current solar cycle and the period of international cooperative programs designated as the Solar Maximum Year. Radio data on shock waves generated by solar flares were combined with optical data on coronal transients, taken with equipment on the SMM and other satellites, and then incorporated into computer models for the outward passage of fast-mode MHD shocks through the solar corona. The MHD models are non-linear, time-dependent and for the most recent models, quasi-three-dimensional. They examine the global response of the corona for different types of input pulses (thermal, magnetic, etc.) and for different magnetic topologies (for example, open and closed fields). Data on coronal shocks and high-velocity material ejected from solar flares have been interpreted in terms of a model consisting of three main velocity regimes.

Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.

2012-01-01

Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism

Sunspot cycle-dependent changes in the distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of IMF observed near 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.

2004-05-01

The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

2004-01-01

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adam, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.

2011-01-01

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adams, James H.; Dietrich, William F.

2012-01-01

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

The electron content of the southern mid-latitude ionosphere, 1965-1971.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titheridge, J. E.

1973-01-01

Continuous accurate records of the electron content of the ionosphere are obtained at Auckland (ionosphere point at 34 deg S geographic, 38 deg geomagnetic) and at Invercargill (42 deg S geographic, 47 deg geomagnetic). Mean hourly values scaled from these records are used to show the average diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle changes in the ionosphere from June 1965 to August 1971. The mean daytime electron content shows no seasonal anomaly at any stage of the solar cycle, at 34 deg S. There is some anomaly at 42 deg S, particularly near solar maximum. The anomaly becomes quite marked in terms of peak density because of a contraction of the ionosphere in winter. The mean amplitude of the day-to-day fluctuations in electron content shows no appreciable solar cycle change.

A solar cycle dependence of nonlinearity in magnetospheric activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2005-04-01

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical Kp data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant-based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original Kp data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maxima. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to 1 week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VBs, and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics, suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, S. C.; Hill, F.

2018-05-01

In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius.

Prediction Methods in Solar Sunspots Cycles

PubMed Central

Ng, Kim Kwee

2016-01-01

An understanding of the Ohl’s Precursor Method, which is used to predict the upcoming sunspots activity, is presented by employing a simplified movable divided-blocks diagram. Using a new approach, the total number of sunspots in a solar cycle and the maximum averaged monthly sunspots number Rz(max) are both shown to be statistically related to the geomagnetic activity index in the prior solar cycle. The correlation factors are significant and they are respectively found to be 0.91 ± 0.13 and 0.85 ± 0.17. The projected result is consistent with the current observation of solar cycle 24 which appears to have attained at least Rz(max) at 78.7 ± 11.7 in March 2014. Moreover, in a statistical study of the time-delayed solar events, the average time between the peak in the monthly geomagnetic index and the peak in the monthly sunspots numbers in the succeeding ascending phase of the sunspot activity is found to be 57.6 ± 3.1 months. The statistically determined time-delayed interval confirms earlier observational results by others that the Sun’s electromagnetic dipole is moving toward the Sun’s Equator during a solar cycle. PMID:26868269

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1990-01-01

The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

NASA's solar maximum mission: A look at a new Sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurman, Joseph B. (Editor)

1987-01-01

As part of the ongoing process of trying to understand the physical processes at work in the Sun, the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft was launched on February 14, 1980, near the height of the solar cycle, to enable the solar physics community to examine, in more physically meaningful detail than ever before, the most violent aspect of solar activity: flares. The scientific products of SMM are substantial: by 1986, over 400 papers based on SMM observations and their interpretations had appeared in scientific journals. More important than such numerical measures of success is the significance of the science that has come from SMM. The following topics, the Sun as a star, solar flares, and the active solar atmosphere, as well as other findings of SMM investigators are described. The instruments on the SMM are also described.

GPS TEC near the crest of the EIA at 95°E during the ascending half of solar cycle 24 and comparison with IRI simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuyan, Pradip Kumar; Hazarika, Rumajyoti

2013-10-01

Total electron content (TEC) data obtained from GPS dual frequency measurements during the ascending half of the solar cycle 24 from 2009 to 2012 over Dibrugarh (27.5°N, 94.9°E; 17.6°N MLAT) have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal, annual and solar cycle variation of TEC. The measurements reported here are for the first time from the location situated at the poleward edge of the northern equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and within the peak region of the longitudinal wave number 4 (WN4) structure in EIA crest TEC. TEC exhibits a minimum around 0600 LT and diurnal maximum around 1300-1600 LT. In the low and moderate solar activity years 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, average daytime (1000-1600 LT) TEC in summer was higher (25.4 and 36.6 TECU) compared to that in winter (21.5 and 26.1 TECU). However, at the peak of the solar cycle in 2011-2012, reversal in the level of ionization between winter and summer takes place and winter TEC becomes higher (50.6 TECU) than that in summer (45.0 TECU). Further, TEC in spring (34.1, 49.9 and 63.3 TECU respectively in 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12) is higher than that in autumn (24.2, 32.3 and 51.9 TECU respectively) thus showing equinoctial asymmetry in all the years of observation. The winter anomaly in high solar activity years and equinoctial asymmetry all throughout may be largely attributed to changes in the thermospheric O/N2 density ratio. A winter to summer delay of ˜1 h in the time of occurrence of the diurnal maximum has also been observed. Daytime maximum TEC bears a nonlinear relationship with F10.7 cm solar flux. TEC increases linearly with F10.7 cm solar flux initially up to about 140 sfu (1 sfu = 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1) after which it tends to saturate. On the contrary, TEC increases linearly with solar EUV flux (photons cm-2 s-1, 0.5-50 nm) during the same period. TEC predicted by the IRI 2012 are lower than the measured TEC for nearly 90% of the time.

Upstream proton cyclotron waves at Venus near solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delva, M.; Bertucci, C.; Volwerk, M.; Lundin, R.; Mazelle, C.; Romanelli, N.

2015-01-01

magnetometer data of Venus Express are analyzed for the occurrence of waves at the proton cyclotron frequency in the spacecraft frame in the upstream region of Venus, for conditions of rising solar activity. The data of two Venus years up to the time of highest sunspot number so far (1 Mar 2011 to 31 May 2012) are studied to reveal the properties of the waves and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions under which they are observed. In general, waves generated by newborn protons from exospheric hydrogen are observed under quasi- (anti)parallel conditions of the IMF and the solar wind velocity, as is expected from theoretical models. The present study near solar maximum finds significantly more waves than a previous study for solar minimum, with an asymmetry in the wave occurrence, i.e., mainly under antiparallel conditions. The plasma data from the Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms instrument aboard Venus Express enable analysis of the background solar wind conditions. The prevalence of waves for IMF in direction toward the Sun is related to the stronger southward tilt of the heliospheric current sheet for the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, i.e., the "bashful ballerina" is responsible for asymmetric background solar wind conditions. The increase of the number of wave occurrences may be explained by a significant increase in the relative density of planetary protons with respect to the solar wind background. An exceptionally low solar wind proton density is observed during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24. At the same time, higher EUV increases the ionization in the Venus exosphere, resulting in higher supply of energy from a higher number of newborn protons to the wave. We conclude that in addition to quasi- (anti)parallel conditions of the IMF and the solar wind velocity direction, the higher relative density of Venus exospheric protons with respect to the background solar wind proton density is the key parameter for the higher number of observable proton cyclotron waves near solar maximum.

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 - 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 - 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Deland, M. T.; Floyd, L. E.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 - 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.

On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

Survey of DMSP Charging Events During the Period Preceding Cycle 23 Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that POLAR orbiting satellites can see mild to severe charging levels during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992, Anderson and Koons, 1996, Anderson, 2012). However, spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging. Recently, we have seen examples of high level charging during the recent approach to solar maximum. We present here a survey of charging events seen by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites (F16, F17) during the solstices of 2011 and 2012. In this survey, we summarize the condition necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal maximum conditions are conducive to the environment conditions necessary for charging in the POLAR orbit, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. We also show examples of other interesting phenomenological events seen in the DMSP data, but which are not considered surface charging events, and discuss the differences.

Survey of DMSP Charging During the Period Preceding Cycle 24 Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

NeergaardParker, L.; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can see mild to severe charging levels during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992, Anderson and Koons, 1996, Anderson, 2012). However, spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging. Recently, we have seen examples of high level charging during the recent approach to solar maximum. We present here a survey of charging events seen by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites (F16, F17) during the solstices of 2011 and 2012. In this survey, we summarize the condition necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal maximum conditions are conducive to the environment conditions necessary for charging in the polar orbit, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. We also show examples of other interesting phenomenological events seen in the DMSP data, but which are not considered surface charging events, and discuss the differences.

Microprocessor control of multiple peak power tracking DC/DC converters for use with solar cell arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, Martin E. (Inventor); Jermakian, Joel (Inventor)

1991-01-01

A method and an apparatus is provided for efficiently controlling the power output of a solar cell array string or a plurality of solar cell array strings to achieve a maximum amount of output power from the strings under varying conditions of use. Maximum power output from a solar array string is achieved through control of a pulse width modulated DC/DC buck converter which transfers power from a solar array to a load or battery bus. The input voltage from the solar array to the converter is controlled by a pulse width modulation duty cycle, which in turn is controlled by a differential signal controller. By periodically adjusting the control voltage up or down by a small amount and comparing the power on the load or bus with that generated at different voltage values a maximum power output voltage may be obtained. The system is totally modular and additional solar array strings may be added to the system simply by adding converter boards to the system and changing some constants in the controller's control routines.

Statistical Methods for Quantifying the Variability of Solar Wind Transients of All Sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.

2016-12-01

The solar wind is inherently variable across a wide range of timescales, from small-scale turbulent fluctuations to the 11-year periodicity induced by the solar cycle. Each solar cycle is unique, and this change in overall cycle activity is coupled from the Sun to Earth via the solar wind, leading to long-term trends in space weather. Our work [Tindale & Chapman, 2016] applies novel statistical methods to solar wind transients of all sizes, to quantify the variability of the solar wind associated with the solar cycle. We use the same methods to link solar wind observations with those on the Sun and Earth. We use Wind data to construct quantile-quantile (QQ) plots comparing the statistical distributions of multiple commonly used solar wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters between the minima and maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that in each case the distribution is multicomponent, ranging from small fluctuations to extreme values, with the same functional form at all phases of the solar cycle. The change in PDF is captured by a simple change of variables, which is independent of the PDF model. Using this method we can quantify the quietness of the cycle 24 maximum, identify which variable drives the changing distribution of composite parameters such as ɛ, and we show that the distribution of ɛ is less sensitive to changes in its extreme values than that of its constituents. After demonstrating the QQ method on solar wind data, we extend the analysis to include solar and magnetospheric data spanning the same time period. We focus on GOES X-ray flux and WDC AE index data. Finally, having studied the statistics of transients across the full distribution, we apply the same method to time series of extreme bursts in each variable. Using these statistical tools, we aim to track the solar cycle-driven variability from the Sun through the solar wind and into the Earth's magnetosphere. Tindale, E. and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11), doi: 10.1002/2016GL068920.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Optimized dispatch in a first-principles concentrating solar power production model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, Michael J.; Newman, Alexandra M.; Hamilton, William T.

Concentrating solar power towers, which include a steam-Rankine cycle with molten salt thermal energy storage, is an emerging technology whose maximum effectiveness relies on an optimal operational and dispatch policy. Given parameters such as start-up and shut-down penalties, expected electricity price profiles, solar availability, and system interoperability requirements, this paper seeks a profit-maximizing solution that determines start-up and shut-down times for the power cycle and solar receiver, and the times at which to dispatch stored and instantaneous quantities of energy over a 48-h horizon at hourly fidelity. The mixed-integer linear program (MIP) is subject to constraints including: (i) minimum andmore » maximum rates of start-up and shut-down, (ii) energy balance, including energetic state of the system as a whole and its components, (iii) logical rules governing the operational modes of the power cycle and solar receiver, and (iv) operational consistency between time periods. The novelty in this work lies in the successful integration of a dispatch optimization model into a detailed techno-economic analysis tool, specifically, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM). The MIP produces an optimized operating strategy, historically determined via a heuristic. Using several market electricity pricing profiles, we present comparative results for a system with and without dispatch optimization, indicating that dispatch optimization can improve plant profitability by 5-20% and thereby alter the economics of concentrating solar power technology. While we examine a molten salt power tower system, this analysis is equally applicable to the more mature concentrating solar parabolic trough system with thermal energy storage.« less

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.

2018-03-01

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).

Solar Cycle variations in Earth's open flux content measured by the SuperDARN radar network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-09-01

We present a long term study, from 1996 - 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection and is here used as a proxy for the amount of open flux in the polar cap. The mean HMB latitude (measured at midnight) is found to be at 64 degrees during the entire period, with secondary peaks at lower latitudes during the solar maximum of 2003, and at higher latitudes during the recent extreme solar minimum of 2008-2011. We associate these large scale statistical variations in open flux content with solar cycle variations in the solar wind parameters leading to changes in the intensity of the coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

Implementation of Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) Solar Charge Controller using Arduino

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelilah, B.; Mouna, A.; KouiderM’Sirdi, N.; El Hossain, A.

2018-05-01

the platform Arduino with a number of sensors standard can be used as components of an electronic system for acquiring measures and controls. This paper presents the design of a low-cost and effective solar charge controller. This system includes several elements such as the solar panel converter DC/DC, battery, circuit MPPT using Microcontroller, sensors, and the MPPT algorithm. The MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracker) algorithm has been implemented using an Arduino Nano with the preferred program. The voltage and current of the Panel are taken where the program implemented will work and using this algorithm that MPP will be reached. This paper provides details on the solar charge control device at the maximum power point. The results include the change of the duty cycle with the change in load and thus mean the variation of the buck converter output voltage and current controlled by the MPPT algorithm.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curdt, W.; Fleck, B.

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Scientific Analysis of Data for the ISTP/SOLARMAX Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lazarus, Alan J.

2001-01-01

This Grant supplemented our work on data analysis from the Wind spacecraft which was one of the ISTRIA fleet of spacecraft. It was targeted at observations related to the time of solar maximum in 2000. The work we proposed to do under this grant included comparison of solar wind parameters obtained from different spacecraft in order to establish correlation lengths appropriate to the solar wind and also to compare parameters to explore solar cycle effects.

Time Dependence of the Electron and Positron Components of the Cosmic Radiation Measured by the PAMELA Experiment between July 2006 and December 2015.

PubMed

Adriani, O; Barbarino, G C; Bazilevskaya, G A; Bellotti, R; Boezio, M; Bogomolov, E A; Bongi, M; Bonvicini, V; Bottai, S; Bruno, A; Cafagna, F; Campana, D; Carlson, P; Casolino, M; Castellini, G; De Santis, C; Di Felice, V; Galper, A M; Karelin, A V; Koldashov, S V; Koldobskiy, S A; Krutkov, S Y; Kvashnin, A N; Leonov, A; Malakhov, V; Marcelli, L; Martucci, M; Mayorov, A G; Menn, W; Mergé, M; Mikhailov, V V; Mocchiutti, E; Monaco, A; Mori, N; Munini, R; Osteria, G; Panico, B; Papini, P; Pearce, M; Picozza, P; Ricci, M; Ricciarini, S B; Simon, M; Sparvoli, R; Spillantini, P; Stozhkov, Y I; Vacchi, A; Vannuccini, E; Vasilyev, G I; Voronov, S A; Yurkin, Y T; Zampa, G; Zampa, N; Potgieter, M S; Vos, E E

2016-06-17

Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons are a unique probe of the propagation of cosmic rays as well as of the nature and distribution of particle sources in our Galaxy. Recent measurements of these particles are challenging our basic understanding of the mechanisms of production, acceleration, and propagation of cosmic rays. Particularly striking are the differences between the low energy results collected by the space-borne PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments and older measurements pointing to sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation of cosmic-ray spectra. The PAMELA experiment has been measuring the time variation of the positron and electron intensity at Earth from July 2006 to December 2015 covering the period for the minimum of solar cycle 23 (2006-2009) until the middle of the maximum of solar cycle 24, through the polarity reversal of the heliospheric magnetic field which took place between 2013 and 2014. The positron to electron ratio measured in this time period clearly shows a sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation introduced by particle drifts. These results provide the first clear and continuous observation of how drift effects on solar modulation have unfolded with time from solar minimum to solar maximum and their dependence on the particle rigidity and the cyclic polarity of the solar magnetic field.

Migration and Extension of Solar Active Longitudinal Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A.

2014-02-01

Solar active longitudes show a characteristic migration pattern in the Carrington coordinate system if they can be identified at all. By following this migration, the longitudinal activity distribution around the center of the band can be determined. The half-width of the distribution is found to be varying in Cycles 21 - 23, and in some time intervals it was as narrow as 20 - 30 degrees. It was more extended around a maximum but it was also narrow when the activity jumped to the opposite longitude. Flux emergence exhibited a quasi-periodic variation within the active zone with a period of about 1.3 years. The path of the active-longitude migration does not support the view that it might be associated with the 11-year solar cycle. These results were obtained for a limited time interval of a few solar cycles and, bearing in mind uncertainties of the migration-path definition, are only indicative. For the major fraction of the dataset no systematic active longitudes were found. Sporadic migration of active longitudes was identified only for Cycles 21 - 22 in the northern hemisphere and Cycle 23 in the southern hemisphere.

A second chance for Solar Max

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maran, S. P.; Woodgate, B. E.

1984-01-01

Using NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite as a communications link, astronomers are able to receive scans from the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite immediately and regularly at the Goddard Space Flight Center. This major operational improvement permits the examination of SMM imagery and spectra as they arrive, as well as the formulation of future observational sequences on the basis of the solar activity in progress. Attention is given to aspects of the sun that change in the course of the 11-year sunspot cycle's movement from maximum to minimum. Proof has been obtained by means of SMM for the near-simultaneity of X-ray and UV bursts at flare onset.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Investment opportunity : the FPL low-cost solar dry kiln

Treesearch

George B. Harpole

1988-01-01

Two equations are presented that may be used to estimate a maximum investment limit and working capital requirements for the FPL low-cost solar dry kiln systems. The equations require data for drying cycle time, green lumber cost, and kiln-dried lumber costs. Results are intended to provide a preliminary estimate.

Carrington cycle 24: the solar chromospheric emission in a historical and stellar perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder, K.-P.; Mittag, M.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Jack, D.; Hempelmann, A.; González-Pérez, J. N.

2017-09-01

We present the solar S-index record of cycle 24, obtained by the Telescopio Internacional de Guanajuato, Robotico Espectroscopico robotic telescope facility and its high-resolution spectrograph HEROS (R ≈ 20 000), which measures the solar chromospheric Ca II H&K line emission by using moonlight. Our calibration process uses the same set of standard stars as introduced by the Mount Wilson team, thus giving us a direct comparison with their huge body of observations taken between 1966 and 1992, as well as with other cool stars. Carrington cycle 24 activity started from the unusually deep and long minimum 2008/2009, with an S-index average of only 0.154, 0.015 deeper than the one of 1986 (〈S〉 = 0.169). In this respect, the chromospheric radiative losses differ remarkably from the variation of the coronal radio flux F10.7 cm and the sunspot numbers. In addition, the cycle 24 S-amplitude remained small, 0.022 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.024), and so resulted in a very low 2014 maximum of 〈S〉 = 0.176 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.193). We argue that this find is significant, since the Ca II H&K line emission is a good proxy for the solar far-ultraviolet (far-UV) flux, which plays an important role in the heating of the Earth's stratosphere, and we further argue that the solar far-UV flux changes with solar activity much more strongly than the total solar output.

Natural variability of tropical upper stratospheric ozone inferred from the Atmosphere Explorer backscatter ultraviolet experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, J. E.; Abrams, R. B.; Dasgupta, R.; Guenther, B.

1981-01-01

Analysis of backscattered ultraviolet radiances observed at tropical latitudes by the Atmosphere Explorer-E satellite reveals both annual and semiannual cycles in upper stratospheric ozone. The annual variation dominates the signal at wavelengths which sense ozone primarily above 45 km while below this, to the lowest altitude sensed, 35 km, the semiannual component has comparable amplitude. Comparison of radiance measurements taken with the same instrument at solar minimum during 1976 and solar maximum in 1979 show no significant differences. This suggests that variations in upper stratospheric ozone over the solar cycle are small, although the data presently available do not allow a definite conclusion.

Systems efficiency and specific mass estimates for direct and indirect solar-pumped closed-cycle high-energy lasers in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monson, D. J.

1978-01-01

Based on expected advances in technology, the maximum system efficiency and minimum specific mass have been calculated for closed-cycle CO and CO2 electric-discharge lasers (EDL's) and a direct solar-pumped laser in space. The efficiency calculations take into account losses from excitation gas heating, ducting frictional and turning losses, and the compressor efficiency. The mass calculations include the power source, radiator, compressor, fluids, ducting, laser channel, optics, and heat exchanger for all of the systems; and in addition the power conditioner for the EDL's and a focusing mirror for the solar-pumped laser. The results show the major component masses in each system, show which is the lightest system, and provide the necessary criteria for solar-pumped lasers to be lighter than the EDL's. Finally, the masses are compared with results from other studies for a closed-cycle CO2 gasdynamic laser (GDL) and the proposed microwave satellite solar power station (SSPS).

Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M.

Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less

ON POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD REVERSAL AND SURFACE FLUX TRANSPORT DURING SOLAR CYCLE 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Xudong; Todd Hoeksema, J.; Liu, Yang

As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33-2014.33) of line-of-sight magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. The total flux associated with ARs reached maximum in the north in 2011, more than two years earlier than the south; the maximum is significantly weaker than Cycle 23. The process of polar field reversal is relatively slow, north-south asymmetric, and episodic. We estimate that the global axial dipole changed sign in 2013 October; the northernmore » and southern polar fields (mean above 60° latitude) reversed in 2012 November and 2014 March, respectively, about 16 months apart. Notably, the poleward surges of flux in each hemisphere alternated in polarity, giving rise to multiple reversals in the north. We show that the surges of the trailing sunspot polarity tend to correspond to normal mean AR tilt, higher total AR flux, or slower mid-latitude near-surface meridional flow, while exceptions occur during low magnetic activity. In particular, the AR flux and the mid-latitude poleward flow speed exhibit a clear anti-correlation. We discuss how these features can be explained in a surface flux transport process that includes a field-dependent converging flow toward the ARs, a characteristic that may contribute to solar cycle variability.« less

Long-Term Solar and Cosmic Radiation Data Bases

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

determine the magnitude of the variations in the cosmic ray intensity caused by solar activity. Neutron monitors, with their much lower energy threshold...expression that neutron monitors are sensors on spacecraft EARTH. Here we will consider cosmic ray detectors to measure two components of cosmic ...A comparison with the solar cycle as illustrated by the sunspot number in Fig. 1. shows that the maximum cosmic ray intensity occurs near sunspot

An analysis of interplanetary space radiation exposure for various solar cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badhwar, G. D.; Cucinotta, F. A.; O'Neill, P. M.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The radiation dose received by crew members in interplanetary space is influenced by the stage of the solar cycle. Using the recently developed models of the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) environment and the energy-dependent radiation transport code, we have calculated the dose at 0 and 5 cm water depth; using a computerized anatomical man (CAM) model, we have calculated the skin, eye and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses as a function of aluminum shielding for various solar minima and maxima between 1954 and 1989. These results show that the equivalent dose is within about 15% of the mean for the various solar minima (maxima). The maximum variation between solar minimum and maximum equivalent dose is about a factor of three. We have extended these calculations for the 1976-1977 solar minimum to five practical shielding geometries: Apollo Command Module, the least and most heavily shielded locations in the U.S. space shuttle mid-deck, center of the proposed Space Station Freedom cluster and sleeping compartment of the Skylab. These calculations, using the quality factor of ICRP 60, show that the average CAM BFO equivalent dose is 0.46 Sv/year. Based on an approach that takes fragmentation into account, we estimate a calculation uncertainty of 15% if the uncertainty in the quality factor is neglected.

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1997-01-01

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, K.

2011-12-01

The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

A study of the possible relation of the cardiac arrhythmias occurrence to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th.

2017-01-01

The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country.

Solar Influence on Tropical Cyclone in Western North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung-Hee; Kim, Ki-Beom; Chang, Heon-Young

2017-12-01

Solar activity is known to be linked to changes in the Earth’s weather and climate. Nonetheless, for other types of extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), the available evidence is less conclusive. In this study the modulation of TC genesis over the western North Pacific by the solar activity is investigated, in comparison with a large-scale environmental parameter, i.e., El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For this purpose, we have obtained the best track data for TCs in the western North Pacific from 1977 to 2016, spanning from the solar cycle 21 to the solar cycle 24. We have confirmed that in the El-Niño periods TCs tend to form in the southeast, reach its maximum strength in the southeast, and end its life as TSs in the northeast, compared with the La-Niña periods. TCs occurring in the El-Niño periods are found to last longer compared with the La-Niña periods. Furthermore, TCs occurring in the El-Niño periods have a lower central pressure at their maximum strength than those occurring in the La-Niña periods. We have found that TCs occurring in the solar maximum periods resemble those in the El-Niño periods in their properties. We have also found that TCs occurring in the solar descending periods somehow resemble those in the El-Niño periods in their properties. To make sure that it is not due to the ENSO effect, we have excluded TCs both in the El-Niño periods and in the La-Niña periods from the data set and repeated the analysis. In addition to this test, we have also reiterated our analysis twice with TCs whose maximum sustained winds speed exceeds 17 m/s, instead of 33 m/s, as well as TCs designated as a typhoon, which ends up with the same conclusions.

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

1999-01-01

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, T.; Livengood, T. A.; Hewagama, T.

2009-01-01

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Solar-QBO Interaction and Its Impact on Stratospheric Ozone in a Zonally Averaged Photochemical Transport Model of the Middle Atmosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-28

Solar- QBO interaction and its impact on stratospheric ozone in a zonally averaged photochemical transport model of the middle atmosphere J. P...investigate the solar cycle modulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation ( QBO ) in stratospheric zonal winds and its impact on stratospheric ozone with an...updated version of the zonally averaged CHEM2D middle atmosphere model. We find that the duration of the westerly QBO phase at solar maximum is 3 months

Structure of the Photospheric Magnetic Field During Sector Crossings of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-11-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we separately study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during Solar Cycles 21 - 24 for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976 - 2016. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle, solar cycle phase, and hemisphere. The Hale boundaries in more than half of the ascending, maximum, and declining phases are clear and statistically significant. The clearest Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd Cycles 21 and 23, but less systematical during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even Cycles 22 and 24. No similar difference between odd and even cycles is found for the (-,+) crossings. This shows that the northern hemisphere has a more organized Hale pattern overall. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon.

Sq field characteristics at Phu Thuy, Vietnam, during solar cycle 23: comparisons with Sq field in other longitude sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham Thi Thu, H.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Le Huy, M.

2011-01-01

Quiet days variations in the Earth's magnetic field (the Sq current system) are compared and contrasted for the Asian, African and American sectors using a new dataset from Vietnam. This is the first presentation of the variation of the Earth's magnetic field (Sq), during the solar cycle 23, at Phu Thuy, Vietnam (geographic latitudes 21.03° N and longitude: 105.95° E). Phu Thuy observatory is located below the crest of the equatorial fountain in the Asian longitude sector of the Northern Hemisphere. The morphology of the Sq daily variation is presented as a function of solar cycle and seasons. The diurnal variation of Phu Thuy is compared to those obtained in different magnetic observatories over the world to highlight the characteristics of the Phu Thuy observations. In other longitude sectors we find different patterns. At Phu Thuy the solar cycle variation of the amplitude of the daily variation of the X component is correlated to the F.10.7 cm solar radiation (~0.74). This correlation factor is greater than the correlation factor obtained in two observatories located at the same magnetic latitudes in other longitude sectors: at Tamanrasset in the African sector (~0.42, geographic latitude ~22.79) and San Juan in the American sector (~0.03, geographic latitude ~18.38). At Phu Thuy, the Sq field exhibits an equinoctial and a diurnal asymmetry: - The seasonal variation of the monthly mean of X component exhibits the well known semiannual pattern with 2 equinox maxima, but the X component is larger in spring than in autumn. Depending of the phase of the sunspot cycle, the maximum amplitude of the X component varies in spring from 30 nT to 75 nT and in autumn from 20 nT to 60 nT. The maximum amplitude of the X component exhibits roughly the same variation in both solstices, varying from about ~20 nT to 50 nT, depending on the position into the solar cycle. - In all seasons, the mean equinoctial diurnal Y component has a morning maximum Larger than the afternoon minimum i.e. the equivalent current flow over a day is more southward than northward. During winter, the asymmetry is maximum, it erases the afternoon minimum. At the Gnangara observatory, in Asian Southern Hemisphere, the diurnal Y pattern is opposite and the current flow is more northward. It seems that in the Asian sector, the northern and southern Sq current cells both contribute strongly to the equatorial electrojet. The pattern is different in the African and American sectors where the northern Sq current cell contribution to the equatorial electrojet is smaller than the southern one. These observations can explain the unexpected maximum of amplitude of the equatorial electrojet observed in the Asian sector where the internal field is very large. During winter the Y component flow presents an anomaly, it is always southward during the whole day and there is no afternoon northward circulation.

The Slowly Varying Corona. I. Daily Differential Emission Measure Distributions Derived from EVE Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schonfeld, S. J.; White, S. M.; Hock-Mysliwiec, R. A.; McAteer, R. T. J.

2017-08-01

Daily differential emission measure (DEM) distributions of the solar corona are derived from spectra obtained by the Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) over a 4 yr period starting in 2010 near solar minimum and continuing through the maximum of solar cycle 24. The DEMs are calculated using six strong emission features dominated by Fe lines of charge states viii, ix, xi, xii, xiv, and xvi that sample the nonflaring coronal temperature range 0.3-5 MK. A proxy for the non-Fe xviii emission in the wavelength band around the 93.9 Å line is demonstrated. There is little variability in the cool component of the corona (T < 1.3 MK) over the 4 yr, suggesting that the quiet-Sun corona does not respond strongly to the solar cycle, whereas the hotter component (T > 2.0 MK) varies by more than an order of magnitude. A discontinuity in the behavior of coronal diagnostics in 2011 February-March, around the time of the first X-class flare of cycle 24, suggests fundamentally different behavior in the corona under solar minimum and maximum conditions. This global state transition occurs over a period of several months. The DEMs are used to estimate the thermal energy of the visible solar corona (of order 1031 erg), its radiative energy loss rate ((2.5-8) × {10}27 erg s-1), and the corresponding energy turnover timescale (about an hour). The uncertainties associated with the DEMs and these derived values are mostly due to the coronal Fe abundance and density and the CHIANTI atomic line database.

Implications of Extended Solar Minima

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi L.; Davis, J. M.

2009-01-01

Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22- year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.

Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

2010-07-01

In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March-May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Investigation of Sunspot Area Varying with Sunspot Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. J.; Li, F. Y.; Zhang, J.; Feng, W.

2016-11-01

The statistical relationship between sunspot area (SA) and sunspot number (SN) is investigated through analysis of their daily observation records from May 1874 to April 2015. For a total of 1607 days, representing 3 % of the total interval considered, either SA or SN had a value of zero while the other parameter did not. These occurrences most likely reflect the report of short-lived spots by a single observatory and subsequent averaging of zero values over multiple stations. The main results obtained are as follows: i) The number of spotless days around the minimum of a solar cycle is statistically negatively correlated with the maximum strength of solar activity of that cycle. ii) The probability distribution of SA generally decreases monotonically with SA, but the distribution of SN generally increases first, then it decreases as a whole. The different probability distribution of SA and SN should strengthen their non-linear relation, and the correction factor [k] in the definition of SN may be one of the factors that cause the non-linearity. iii) The non-linear relation of SA and SN indeed exists statistically, and it is clearer during the maximum epoch of a solar cycle.

Flow downstream of the heliospheric terminal shock: Magnetic field line topology and solar cycle imprint

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nerney, Steven; Suess, S. T.; Schmahl, E. J.

1995-01-01

The topology of the magnetic field in the heliosheath is illustrated using plots of the field lines. It is shown that the Archimedean spiral inside the terminal shock is rotated back in the heliosheath into nested spirals that are advected in the direction of the interstellar wind. The 22-year solar magnetic cycle is imprinted onto these field lines in the form of unipolar magnetic envelopes surrounded by volumes of strongly mixed polarity. Each envelope is defined by the changing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, which is in turn defined by the boundary of unipolar high-latitude regions on the Sun that shrink to the pole at solar maximum and expand to the equator at solar minimum. The detailed shape of the envelopes is regulated by the solar wind velocity structure in the heliosheath.

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

Solar wind structure suggested by bimodal correlations of solar wind speed and density between the spacecraft SOHO and Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogilvie, K. W.; Coplan, M. A.; Roberts, D. A.; Ipavich, F.

2007-08-01

We calculate the cross-spacecraft maximum lagged-cross-correlation coefficients for 2-hour intervals of solar wind speed and density measurements made by the plasma instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Wind spacecraft over the period from 1996, the minimum of solar cycle 23, through the end of 2005. During this period, SOHO was located at L1, about 200 R E upstream from the Earth, while Wind spent most of the time in the interplanetary medium at distances of more than 100 R E from the Earth. Yearly histograms of the maximum, time-lagged correlation coefficients for both the speed and density are bimodal in shape, suggesting the existence of two distinct solar wind regimes. The larger correlation coefficients we suggest are due to structured solar wind, including discontinuities and shocks, while the smaller are likely due to Alfvénic turbulence. While further work will be required to firmly establish the physical nature of the two populations, the results of the analysis are consistent with a solar wind that consists of turbulence from quiet regions of the Sun interspersed with highly filamentary structures largely convected from regions in the inner solar corona. The bimodal appearance of the distributions is less evident in the solar wind speed than in the density correlations, consistent with the observation that the filamentary structures are convected with nearly constant speed by the time they reach 1 AU. We also find that at solar minimum the fits for the density correlations have smaller high-correlation components than at solar maximum. We interpret this as due to the presence of more relatively uniform Alfvénic regions at solar minimum than at solar maximum.

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2012-10-01

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Modeling the heliolatitudinal gradient of the solar wind parameters with exact MHD solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lima, J. J. G.; Tsinganos, K.

1995-01-01

The heliolatitudinal dependence of observations of the solar wind macroscopic quantities such as the averaged proton speed, density and the mass and momentum flux are modeled. The published observations covering the last two and a half solar cycles, are obtained either via the technique of interplanetary scintillations for the last 2 solar cycles (1970-1990), or, from the plasma experiment aboard the ULYSSES spacecraft for the recent period 1990-1994. Exact, two dimensional solutions of the full set of the steady MHD equations are used which are obtained through a nonlinear separation of the variables in the MHD equations. The three parameters emerging from the solutions are fixed from these observations, as well as from observations of the solar rotation. It is found that near solar maximum the solar wind speed is uniformly low, around the 400 km/s over a wide range of latitudes. On the other hand, during solar minimum and the declining phase of the solar activity cycle, there is a strong heliolatitudinal gradient in proton speed between 400-800 from equator to pole. This modeling also agrees with previous findings that the gradient in wind speed with the latitude is offset by a gradient in density such that the mass and momentum flux vary relatively little.

Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles: Design Considerations for Concentrating Solar Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neises, Ty; Turchi, Craig

2014-09-01

A comparison of three supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles: the simple cycle, recompression cycle and partial-cooling cycle indicates the partial-cooling cycle is favored for use in concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. Although it displays slightly lower cycle efficiency versus the recompression cycle, the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to have lower total recuperator size, as well as a lower maximum s-CO2 temperature in the high-temperature recuperator. Both of these effects reduce recuperator cost. Furthermore, the partial-cooling cycle provides a larger temperature differential across the turbine, which translates into a smaller, more cost-effective thermal energy storage system. The temperature drop across the turbinemore » (and by extension, across a thermal storage system) for the partial-cooling cycle is estimated to be 23% to 35% larger compared to the recompression cycle of equal recuperator conductance between 5 and 15 MW/K. This reduces the size and cost of the thermal storage system. Simulations by NREL and Abengoa Solar indicate the partial-cooling cycle results in a lower LCOE compared with the recompression cycle, despite the former's slightly lower cycle efficiency. Advantages of the recompression cycle include higher thermal efficiency and potential for a smaller precooler. The overall impact favors the use of a partial-cooling cycle for CSP compared to the more commonly analyzed recompression cycle.« less

Stereo and Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaise,r Michael L.

2008-01-01

The twin STEREO spacecrafi, launched in October 2006, are in heliocentric orbits near 4 AU with one spacecraft (Ahead) leading Earth in its orbit around the Sun and the other (Behind) trailing Earth. As viewed from the Sun, the STEREO spacecraft are continually separating from one another at about 45 degrees per year with Earth biseding the angle. At present, th@spaser=raft are a bit more than 45 degrees apart, thus they are able to each 'vie@ ground the limb's of the Sun by about 23 degrees, corresponding to about 1.75 days of solar rotation. Both spameraft contain an identical set of instruments including an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, tws all-sky imagers, a wide selection of energetic particle detectors, a magnetometer and a radio burst tracker. A snapshot of the real time data is continually broadcast to NOW-managed ground stations and this small stream of data is immediately sent to the STEREO Science Center and converted into useful space weather data within 5 minutes of ground receipt. The resulting images, particle, magnetometer and radio astronomy plots are available at j g i t , : gAs timqe conting ues ijnto . g solar cycle 24, the separation angle becomes 90 degrees in early 2009 and 180 degrees in early 201 1 as the activity heads toward maximum. By the time of solar maximum, STEREO will provide for the first time a view of the entire Sun with the mronagraphs and e*reme ultraviolet instruments. This view wilt allow us to follow the evolution of active regions continuously and also detect new active regions long before they pose a space weather threat to Earth. The in situ instruments will be able to provide about 7 days advanced notice of co-rotating structures in the solar wind. During this same intewal near solar maximum, the wide-angle imagers on STEREB will both be ;able to view EarlCP-dirsted CMEs in their plane-oPsky. When combined with Eat-lhorbiting assets available at that time, it seems solar cycle 24 will mark a great increase in our ability to understand and predict space weather.

Helio-geomagnetic influence in cardiological cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsavrias, Ch.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Moussas, X.; Apostolou, Th.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Papadima, Th.

2013-01-01

The effects of the energetic phenomena of the Sun, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Earth's ionosphere-magnetosphere, through the solar wind, are the sources of the geomagnetic disturbances and storms collectively known as Space Weather. The research on the influence of Space Weather on biological and physiological systems is open. In this work we study the Space Weather impact on Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) distinguishing between ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (STE-ACS) and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) cases. We compare detailed patient records from the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus, Greece) with characteristics of geomagnetic storms (DST), solar wind speed and statistics of flares and CMEs which cover the entire solar cycle 23 (1997-2007). Our results indicate a relationship of ACS to helio-geomagnetic activity as the maximum of the ACS cases follows closely the maximum of the solar cycle. Furthermore, within very active periods, the ratio NSTE-ACS to STE-ACS, which is almost constant during periods of low to medium activity, changes favouring the NSTE-ACS. Most of the ACS cases exhibit a high degree of association with the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms; a smaller, yet significant, part was found associated with periods of fast solar wind without a storm.

North west area of Tuscany, Italy : Are the solar maximum and solar minima a particular period for increased frequency of floods and local geological destabilization ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casati, Michele; Straser, Valentino; Feron, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study is to verify a possible relationship between solar activity transitions (minimum and maximum), seismic activity and atmospheric circulation in a particular area. The hypothesis has already been advanced by other authors and is found in studies, for example: [Sytinsky A.D.,1980,1987,1997][Mazzarella,Palumbo, 1989][Odintsov, et al, 2006][Khachikyan, Inchin, Lozbin, 2012][Czymzik,Markus, 2013][Nedeljko,Vujović,2014]. The geographical area studied is approximately 8x13 km sq. and includes villages such as Fivizzano and Equi Terme, in north-west Tuscany, Italy, on the Lunigiana/Garfagnana border. The North Apuan Fault Zone" (NAFZ) is found in the area of study and major historical earthquakes have occurred in this area [Di Naccio Deborah, et al., 2013]. In this research, we compared the local seismicity with heavy rainfall (in quantity) that occurred in a short time frame in this area (measured by the daily rain gauge accumulations). These events occurred during the numerous floods from 2009 to 2013 (the transition between the solar cycle SC23 and SC24 solar and the rise of solar cycle SC24). The data was provided by the hydrological sector of the Tuscan Region Hydrological Service (SIR) and the LaMMA consortium. In this study we hypothesize, a slow and continuous destabilizing action on local geological structures, due to the multiple and violent atmospheric disturbances (V-shaped, flash floods, squall-line, etc..). Destabilization that led to an earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.36, which occurred on 21 June 2013. Comparing the SIDC count of sunspots with: a) the historical local seismic events catalogue with magnitude M4.5 + (CPTI15, the 2015 version of the Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes), b) the recent earthquakes of magnitude M 2.5+, which occurred from 1984 (ISIDe working group (2016) version 1.0), and c) the historical reconstructed maximum annual flows of the Serchio river from 1750, the daily maximum annual flows of the Magra river since 1939 (Data provided by Serchio River Authority and Aauthority and Magra Interregional River Authority), we observe that floods and/or local seismic events occur more frequently when there are solar maximum and solar minima.

Variability of fractal dimension of solar radio flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Hitaishi; Sharma, Som Kumar; Trivedi, Rupal; Vats, Hari Om

2018-04-01

In the present communication, the variation of the fractal dimension of solar radio flux is reported. Solar radio flux observations on a day to day basis at 410, 1415, 2695, 4995, and 8800 MHz are used in this study. The data were recorded at Learmonth Solar Observatory, Australia from 1988 to 2009 covering an epoch of two solar activity cycles (22 yr). The fractal dimension is calculated for the listed frequencies for this period. The fractal dimension, being a measure of randomness, represents variability of solar radio flux at shorter time-scales. The contour plot of fractal dimension on a grid of years versus radio frequency suggests high correlation with solar activity. Fractal dimension increases with increasing frequency suggests randomness increases towards the inner corona. This study also shows that the low frequency is more affected by solar activity (at low frequency fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.42) whereas, the higher frequency is less affected by solar activity (here fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.07). A good positive correlation is found between fractal dimension averaged over all frequencies and yearly averaged sunspot number (Pearson's coefficient is 0.87).

Novel Stimulated Electromagnetic Emission Observations with Artificial Airglow Using RF Excitation with HAARP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briczinski, S. J., Jr.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Siefring, C. L.; Michell, R.; Hampton, D. L.; Watkins, B. J.; Bristow, W. A.

2014-12-01

Neutral hydrogen plays an important role in determining the state of the plasmasphere and its response to forcing from geomagnetic storms. Hydrogen's solar cycle variation is counterintuitive: there is more hydrogen at solar minimum at 300 km that there is at solar maximum. Similarly there is more hydrogen in winter than in summer and hydrogen density maximizes in the morning. In this presentation we describe these variations and consider some possible causes for them.

Temporal variations in the position of the heliospheric equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.

2008-08-01

It is shown that the centroid of the heliospheric equator undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations. During the minimum of the 11-year cycle, the centroid shifts southwards (the so-called bashful-ballerina effect). The direction of the shift reverses during the solar maximum. The solar quadrupole is responsible for this effect. The shift is compared with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet.

Modeling of kinetic, ionospheric and auroral contributions to the 557.7-nm nightglow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Brunger, M. J.

2010-11-01

Emission of 557.7-nm radiation from the Earth's upper atmosphere is produced by kinetic, ionospheric and auroral excitation of oxygen atoms. The mechanisms and hence the relative contributions of these three sources are not fully understood. A ground-based mid-latitude recording of the 557.7-nm emissions over the previous solar cycle facilitates a comparison of measurements with theoretical predictions. In this paper the predicted kinetic and ionospheric contributions are simulated and compared with the observations. Semi-quantitative agreement is found between the kinetic contribution and the observations, particularly in the presence of annual, semi-annual and solar cycle variations. An observed enhancement in the emissions in the years following solar maximum is not predicted by the kinetic model. However, correlation analysis reveals a component in the observed values that is related to the auroral hemispheric power. When this extra component is included, a better fit to the pre-midnight observations over the full solar cycle is found.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Radio Burst Statistics and Implications for Space Weather Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giersch, O. D.; Kennewell, J.; Lynch, M.

2017-11-01

Solar radio bursts have the potential to affect space and terrestrial navigation, communication, and other technical systems that are sometimes overlooked. However, over the last decade a series of extreme L band solar radio bursts in December 2006 have renewed interest in these effects. In this paper we point out significant deficiencies in the solar radio data archives of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that are used by most researchers in analyzing and producing statistics on solar radio burst phenomena. In particular, we examine the records submitted by the United States Air Force (USAF) Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) and its predecessors from the period 1966 to 2010. Besides identifying substantial missing burst records we show that different observatories can have statistically different burst distributions, particularly at 245 MHz. We also point out that different solar cycles may show statistically different distributions and that it is a mistake to assume that the Sun shows similar behavior in different sunspot cycles. Large solar radio bursts are not confined to the period around sunspot maximum, and prediction of such events that utilize historical data will invariably be an underestimate due to archive data deficiencies. It is important that researchers and forecasters use historical occurrence frequency with caution in attempting to predict future cycles.

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.

PubMed

Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W

1986-11-28

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Ionospheric effects of the extreme solar activity of February 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boska, J.; Pancheva, D.

1989-01-01

During February 1986, near the minimum of the 11 year Solar sunspot cycle, after a long period of totally quiet solar activity (R sub z = 0 on most days in January) a period of a suddenly enhanced solar activity occurred in the minimum between solar cycles 21 and 22. Two proton flares were observed during this period. A few other flares, various phenomena accompanying proton flares, an extremely severe geomagnetic storm and strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere were observed in this period of enhanced solar activity. Two active regions appeared on the solar disc. The flares in both active regions were associated with enhancement of solar high energy proton flux which started on 4 February of 0900 UT. Associated with the flares, the magnetic storm with sudden commencement had its onset on 6 February 1312 UT and attained its maximum on 8 February (Kp = 9). The sudden enhancement in solar activity in February 1986 was accompanied by strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere, SIDs and ionospheric storm. These events and their effects on the ionosphere are discussed.

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. A.; Davies, J. A.; Barnes, D.; Byrne, J. P.; Perry, C. H.; Bothmer, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Gallagher, P. T.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Möstl, C.; Rodriguez, L.; Rouillard, A. P.; Odstrčil, D.

2018-05-01

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board NASA's twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras, while following papers will present analyses of CME propagation through the entire HI fields of view. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites do not simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes, while at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

Comparison of Total Solar Irradiance with NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph Data in Solar Cycles 22 and 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harrison P.; Branston, Detrick D.; Jones, Patricia B.; Popescu, Miruna D.

2002-01-01

An earlier study compared NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) data with spacecraft measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations over a 1.5 year period in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. This paper extends the analysis to an eight-year period which also spans the rising and early maximum phases of cycle 23. The conclusions of the earlier work appear to be robust: three factors (sunspots, strong unipolar regions, and strong mixed polarity regions) describe most of the variation in the SPM record, but only the first two are associated with TSI. Additionally, the residuals of a linear multiple regression of TSI against SPM observations over the entire eight-year period show an unexplained, increasing, linear time variation with a rate of about 0.05 W m(exp -2) per year. Separate regressions for the periods before and after 1996 January 01 show no unexplained trends but differ substantially in regression parameters. This behavior may reflect a solar source of TSI variations beyond sunspots and faculae but more plausibly results from uncompensated non-solar effects in one or both of the TSI and SPM data sets.

Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals related to the 11-year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruschke, T.; Kunze, M.; Matthes, K. B.; Langematz, U.; Wahl, S.

2017-12-01

Although state-of-the-art reconstructions based on proxies and (semi-)empirical models converge in terms of total solar irradiance, they still significantly differ in terms of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with respect to the mean spectral distribution of energy input and temporal variability. This study aims at quantifying uncertainties for the Earth's climate related to the 11-year solar cycle by forcing two chemistry-climate models (CCMs) - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - with five different SSI reconstructions (NRLSSI1, NRLSSI2, SATIRE-T, SATIRE-S, CMIP6-SSI) and the reference spectrum RSSV1-ATLAS3, derived from observations. We conduct a unique set of timeslice experiments. External forcings and boundary conditions are fixed and identical for all experiments, except for the solar forcing. The set of analyzed simulations consists of one solar minimum simulation, employing RSSV1-ATLAS3 and five solar maximum experiments. The latter are a result of adding the amplitude of solar cycle 22 according to the five reconstructions to RSSV1-ATLAS3. Our results show that the climate response to the 11y solar cycle is generally robust across CCMs and SSI forcings. However, analyzing the variance of the solar maximum ensemble by means of ANOVA-statistics reveals additional information on the uncertainties of the mean climate signals. The annual mean response agrees very well between the two CCMs for most parts of the lower and middle atmosphere. Only the upper mesosphere is subject to significant differences related to the choice of the model. However, the different SSI forcings lead to significant differences in ozone concentrations, shortwave heating rates, and temperature throughout large parts of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Regarding the seasonal evolution of the climate signals, our findings for short wave heating rates, and temperature are similar to the annual means with respect to the relative importance of the choice of the model or the SSI forcing for the respective atmospheric layer. On the other hand, the predominantly dynamically driven signal in zonal wind is quite dependent on the choice of a CCM, mainly due to spatio-temporal shifts of similar responses. Within a given "model world" dynamical signals related to the different SSI forcings agree very well even under this monthly perspective.

Modulation of quasi-biennial ozone oscillations in the equatorial stratosphere by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezverkhnii, Viacheslav; Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Analysis of variation in ozone concentration, temperature, and zonal wind velocity in the equatorial stratosphere at the quasi-biennial (QB) and quasi-decadal (QD) time scales and their relation to the QB and 11-year variations in solar activity is made with the help of wavelet, cross-wavelet and cross-spectral techniques using SBUV/SBUV 2 (ozone), NMC, ERA-40, ERA-Interim (wind and temperature), and radiosonde (wind) data. Sunspot number and 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are used as indices of solar activity. The QD mode with the mean period of 128 months and the QB mode with 28-29 month period are derived from variations in ozone concentration , ozone meridional gradient, temperature and wind velocity. Local maxima of amplitudes of the QD variation in the ozone meridional gradient occur in 4-5 and 20-30 hPa layers. The amplitude of the QB mode of the ozone meridional gradient in 30-50 hPa layer is modulated by the solar cycle in such a way that the amplitude maximum corresponds approximately to the solar cycle maximum. Similar modulation is not found in the QB mode of ozone concentration. While the QD variations in ozone and zonal wind velocity are weak compared to the QB oscillation, the amplitudes of the QD and QB modes of temperature oscillations in the lower and middle stratosphere are close to each other. The modulation of the QB oscillations in the ozone meridional gradient in the lower stratosphere by the 11-year solar cycle is an additional evidence of solar activity influence on the stratosphere, which extends results by Soukharev and Hood (2001), Bezverkhnii and Gruzdev (2007), and Gruzdev and Bezverkhnii (2010). References: 1. Bezverkhnii, V.A., and A.N. Gruzdev. Relation between quasi-decadal and quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity and the equatorial stratospheric wind. Doklady Earth Sciences, 2007, Vol. 415A, No 6, pp. 970-974. 2. Gruzdev, A.N., and V.A. Bezverkhnii. Possible ozone influence on the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Doklady Earth Sciences, 2010, Vol. 434, Part 1, pp. 1279-1284. 3. Soukharev, B.E., and L.L. Hood. Possible solar modulation of the equatorial quasi-biennisl oscillation: Additional statistical evidence. J. Geophys. Res., 2001, Vol. 106, No D14, pp. 14855-14868.

Ultraviolet irradiation at elevated temperatures and thermal cycling in vacuum of FEP-A covered silicon solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broder, J. D.; Marsik, S. J.

1978-01-01

Experiments were designed and performed on silicon solar cells covered with heat-bonded FEP-A in an effort to explain the rapid degeneration of open-circuit voltage and maximum power observered on cells of this type included in an experiment on the ATS-6 spacecraft. Solar cells were exposed to ultraviolet light in vacuum at temperatures ranging from 30 to 105 C. The samples were then subjected to thermal cycling from 130 to -130 C. Inspection following irradiation indicated that all the covers remained physically intact. However, during the temperature cycling heat-bonded covers showed cracking. The test showed that heat-bonded FEP-A covers embrittle during UV exposure and the embrittlement is dependent upon sample temperature during irradiation. The results of the experiment suggest a probable mechanism for the degradation of the FEP-A cells on ATS-6.

Estimates of solar variability using the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) 2 Mg II index from the NOAA 9 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; Deland, Matthew T.; Schlesinger, Barry M.

1992-01-01

The Mg II core to wing index was first developed for the Nimbus 7 solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument as an indicator of solar variability on both solar 27-day rotational and solar cycle time scales. This work extends the Mg II index to the NOAA 9 SBUV 2 instrument and shows that the variations in absolute value between Mg II index data sets caused by interinstrument differences do not affect the ability to track temporal variations. The NOAA 9 Mg II index accurately represents solar rotational modulation but contains more day-to-day noise than the Nimbus 7 Mg II index. Solar variability at other UV wavelengths is estimated by deriving scale factors between the Mg II index rotational variations and at those selected wavelengths. Based on the 27-day average of the NOAA 9 Mg II index and the NOAA 9 scale factors, the solar irradiance change from solar minimum in September 1986 to the beginning of the maximum of solar cycle 22 in 1989 is estimated to be 8.6 percent at 205 nm, 3.5 percent at 250 nm, and less than 1 percent beyond 300 nm.

Abundance and Source Population of Suprathermal Heavy Ions in Corotating Interaction Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensema, R. J.; Desai, M. I.; Broiles, T. W.; Dayeh, M. A.

2015-12-01

In this study we analyze the abundances of suprathermal heavy ions in 75 Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) events between January 1st 1995 and December 31st 2008. We correlate the heavy ion abundances in these CIRs with those measured in the solar wind and suprathermal populations upstream of these events. Our analysis reveals that the CIR suprathermal heavy ion abundances vary by nearly two orders of magnitude over the solar activity cycle, with higher abundances (e.g., Fe/O) occurring during solar maximum and depleted values occurring during solar minimum. The abundances are also energy dependent, with larger abundances at higher energies, particularly during solar maximum. Following the method used by Mason et al. 2008, we correlate the CIR abundances with the corresponding solar wind and suprathermal values measured during 6-hour intervals for upstream periods spanning 10 days prior to the start of each CIR event. This correlation reveals that suprathermal heavy ions are better correlated with upstream suprathermal abundances measured at the same energy compared with the solar wind heavy ion abundances. Using the 6-hour averaging method, we also identified timeframes of maximum correlation between the CIR and the upstream suprathermal abundances, and find that the time of maximum correlation depends on the energy of the suprathermal ions. We discuss the implications of these results in terms of previous studies of CIR and suprathermal particles, and CIR seed populations and acceleration mechanisms.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

Alpha Centauri at a Crossroads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas

2014-09-01

Nearby Alpha Centauri (G2V+K1V) contains the two best characterized solar-like dwarf stars, which also have the best studied X-ray activity cycles, extending back to the 1970's. Objective is to continue tracking the evolving multi-decadal high-energy narrative of Alpha Cen with semiannual HRC-I pointings in Cycles 16-18, as the system reaches a coronal crossroads: solar twin A rising toward cycle maximum, K-type companion B sinking into a minimum. HST/STIS UV spectra will support and leverage the X-ray measurements by probing subcoronal dynamics, with connection to the corona through the FUV Fe XII forbidden line. Only Chandra can resolve the AB X-ray sources as the Alpha Cen orbit also reaches a crossroads in 2016.

The ancient Egyptian civilization: maximum and minimum in coincidence with solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, M.

It is proved from the last 22 years observations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) from space by artificial satellites, that TSI shows negative correlation with the solar activity (sunspots, flares, and 10.7cm Radio emissions) from day to day, but shows positive correlations with the same activity from year to year (on the base of the annual average for each of them). Also, the solar constant, which estimated fromth ground stations for beam solar radiations observations during the 20 century indicate coincidence with the phases of the 11- year cycles. It is known from sunspot observations (250 years) , and from C14 analysis, that there are another long-term cycles for the solar activity larger than 11-year cycle. The variability of the total solar irradiance affecting on the climate, and the Nile flooding, where there is a periodicities in the Nile flooding similar to that of solar activity, from the analysis of about 1300 years of the Nile level observations atth Cairo. The secular variations of the Nile levels, regularly measured from the 7 toth 15 century A.D., clearly correlate with the solar variations, which suggests evidence for solar influence on the climatic changes in the East African tropics The civilization of the ancient Egyptian was highly correlated with the Nile flooding , where the river Nile was and still yet, the source of the life in the Valley and Delta inside high dry desert area. The study depends on long -time historical data for Carbon 14 (more than five thousands years), and chronical scanning for all the elements of the ancient Egyptian civilization starting from the firs t dynasty to the twenty six dynasty. The result shows coincidence between the ancient Egyptian civilization and solar activity. For example, the period of pyramids building, which is one of the Brilliant periods, is corresponding to maximum solar activity, where the periods of occupation of Egypt by Foreign Peoples corresponding to minimum solar activity. The decline of the Kingdoms in ancient Egypt and occurrence of the intermediate periods are generally explained by very low Nile floods and prolonged droughts followed by severe famines and the destruction of the political structure. The study declear the role of solar activity on the climatic change, and the humankind history.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Calibrated solar S-index time series (Egeland+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, R.; Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Hall, J. C.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Bertello, L.

2017-08-01

The Mount Wilson HK Program observed the Moon with both the HKP-1 and HKP-2 instruments. After removing 11 obvious outliers, there are 162 HKP-1 observations taken from 1966 September 2 to 1977 June 4 with the Mount Wilson 100 inch reflector, covering the maximum of cycle 20 and the cycle 20-21 minimum. As mentioned in Baliunas+ (1995ApJ...438..269B), observations of the Moon resumed in 1993 with the HKP-2 instrument. After removing 10 obvious outliers, there are 75 HKP-2 observations taken from 1994 March 27 to 2002 November 23 with the Mount Wilson 60 inch reflector, covering the end of cycle 22 and the cycle 23 minimum, extending just past the cycle 23 maximum. The end of observations coincides with the unfortunate termination of the HK Project in 2003. We seek to extend our time series of solar variability beyond cycle 23 by establishing a proxy to the NSO Sacramento Peak (NSO/SP) observations taken from 1976 to 2016, covering cycles 21 to 24. The spectral intensity scale is set by integrating a 0.53Å band centered at 3934.869Å in the K-line wing and setting it to the fixed value of 0.162. We extend the S-index record back to cycle 20 using the composite K time series of Bertello+ (2016SoPh..291.2967B). See section 3 for further explanations. (1 data file).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, G.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.

Nightime thermospheric winds and temperatures have been measured over Fritz Peak Observatory, Colorado (39.9 /sup 0/N, 105.5 /sup 0/W), with a high resolution Fabry-Perot spectrometer. The winds and temperatures are obtained from the Doppler shifts and line profiles of the (O 1) 15,867K (630 nm) line emission. Measurements made during two large geomagnetic storm periods near solar cycle maximum reveal a thermospheric response to the heat and momentum sources associated with these storms that is more complex than the ones measured near solar cycle minimum. In the earlier measurements made during solar cycle minimum, the winds to the north ofmore » Fritz Peak Observatory had an enhanced equatorward component and the winds to the south were also equatorward, usually with smaller velocities. The winds measured to the east and west of the observatory both had an enhanced westward wind component. For the two large storms near the present solar cycle maximum period converging winds are observed in each of the cardinal directions from Fritz Peak Observatory. These converging winds with speeds of hundreds of meters per second last for several hours. The measured neutral gas temperature in each of the directions also increases several hundred degrees Kelvin. Numerical experiments done with the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) suggest that the winds to the east and north of the station are driven by high-latitude heating and enhanced westward ion drag associated with magnetospheric convection. The cause of the enhanced poleward and eastward winds measured to the south and west of Fritz Peak Observatory, respectively, is not known. During geomagnetic quiet conditions the circulation is typically from the soutwest toward the northeast in the evening hours.« less

L-band nighttime scintillations at the northern edge of the EIA along 95°E during the ascending half of the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Barsha; Kalita, Bitap Raj; Bhuyan, Pradip Kumar

2018-04-01

The characteristics of nighttime ionospheric scintillations measured at the L-band frequency of 1.575 GHz over Dibrugarh (27.5°N, 95°E, MLAT ∼ 17°N, 43° dip) during the ascending half of the solar cycle 24 from 2010 to 2014 have been investigated and the results are presented in this paper. The measurement location is within or outside the zone of influence of the equatorial ionization anomaly depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Maximum scintillation is observed in the equinoxes irrespective of solar activity with clear asymmetry between March and September. The occurrence frequency in the solstices shifts from minimum in the June solstice in low solar activity to a minimum in the December solstice in high solar activity years. A significant positive correlation of occurrence of scintillations in the June solstice with solar activity has been observed. However, earlier reports from the Indian zone (∼75°E) indicate negative or no correlation of scintillation in June solstice with solar activity. Scintillations activity/occurrence in solstices indicates a clear positive correlation with Es recorded simultaneously by a collocated Ionosonde. In equinoxes, maximum scintillations occur in the pre-midnight hours while in solstices the occurrence frequency peaks just after sunset. The incidence of strong scintillations (S4 ≥ 0.4) increases with increase in solar activity. Strong (S4 ≥ 0.4) ionospheric scintillations accompanied by TEC depletions in the pre-midnight period is attributed to equatorial irregularities whereas the dusk period scintillations are related to the sporadic-E activity. Present results thus indicate that the current location at the northern edge of the EIA behaves as low as well as mid-latitude location.

Shuttle radiation dose measurements in the International Space Station orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badhwar, Gautam D.

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is now a reality with the start of a permanent human presence on board. Radiation presents a serious risk to the health and safety of the astronauts, and there is a clear requirement for estimating their exposures prior to and after flights. Predictions of the dose rate at times other than solar minimum or solar maximum have not been possible, because there has been no method to calculate the trapped-particle spectrum at intermediate times. Over the last few years, a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been flown at a fixed mid-deck location on board the Space Shuttle in 51.65 degrees inclination flights. These flights have provided data that cover the expected changes in the dose rates due to changes in altitude and changes in solar activity from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of the current 23rd solar cycle. Based on these data, a simple function of the solar deceleration potential has been derived that can be used to predict the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) dose rates to within +/-10%. For altitudes to be covered by the ISS, the dose rate due to the trapped particles is found to be a power-law function, rho(-2/3), of the atmospheric density, rho. This relationship can be used to predict trapped dose rates inside these spacecraft to +/-10% throughout the solar cycle. Thus, given the shielding distribution for a location inside the Space Shuttle or inside an ISS module, this approach can be used to predict the combined GCR + trapped dose rate to better than +/-15% for quiet solar conditions.

Extreme Value Theory and the New Sunspot Number Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acero, F. J.; Carrasco, V. M. S.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-04-01

Extreme value theory was employed to study solar activity using the new sunspot number index. The block maxima approach was used at yearly (1700-2015), monthly (1749-2016), and daily (1818-2016) scales, selecting the maximum sunspot number value for each solar cycle, and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique was used after a declustering process only for the daily data. Both techniques led to negative values for the shape parameters. This implies that the extreme sunspot number value distribution has an upper bound. The return level (RL) values obtained from the POT approach were greater than when using the block maxima technique. Regarding the POT approach, the 110 year (550 and 1100 year) RLs were lower (higher) than the daily maximum observed sunspot number value of 528. Furthermore, according to the block maxima approach, the 10-cycle RL lay within the block maxima daily sunspot number range, as expected, but it was striking that the 50- and 100-cycle RLs were also within that range. Thus, it would seem that the RL is reaching a plateau, and, although one must be cautious, it would be difficult to attain sunspot number values greater than 550. The extreme value trends from the four series (yearly, monthly, and daily maxima per solar cycle, and POT after declustering the daily data) were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method. Only the negative trend of the daily data with the POT technique was statistically significant.

Proposed U.S. Space Weather Budget for Fiscal Year 2011 Would Fund Key Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2010-09-01

The proposed U.S. federal budget for space weather research for fiscal year (FY) 2011 would provide funding for key space weather programs within several U.S. agencies, including NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Air Force. Funding for the programs comes ahead of the upcoming solar maximum, a period of the solar cycle with heightened solar activity, projected for 2013. Several officials indicated that while funding is not tied to a particular solar maximum or minimum, available assets could help with studying and preparing for the solar maximum. The proposed FY 2011 budget for the Heliophysics Division within NASA's Science Mission Directorate is $641.9 million, compared with the FY 2010 enacted budget of $627.4 million. Within the proposed budget is $166.9 million for heliophysics research, down slightly from $173 million for FY 2010. The proposed budget would include $31.7 million for heliophysics research and analysis (compared with $31 million for FY 2010); $66.7 million for “other missions and data analysis,” including Cluster II, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission; and $48.9 million for sounding rockets.

The impact of occurrence of exceptional solar events on mortality from diseases of the nervous system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podolska, Katerina

2015-04-01

The aim of this conference paper is to analyse relationships between strong changes of solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters, and mortality by medical cause of death from diagnosis group Diseases of the nervous system by ICD-10 WHO. The aggregated daily number of deaths of 6 largest individual causes of death of group VI. Diseases of the nervous system on the occurrence of exceptional solar and geomagnetic events is investigated. Analysis is performed for the period of the solar cycles No. 23 and 24 (years 1994-2013) in the Czech Republic. The correlation between the intensity of mortality from diseases Multiple sclerosis, Epilepsy, Cerebral palsy, Parkinson disease, Secondary parkinsonism and Alzheimer disease and the solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters is examined using stochastic method of graphical models of conditional dependences. We study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+. Differences are found for maximum solar activity and during the ascending and descending epoch of the solar cycles.

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2005-01-01

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Quantifying variability in fast and slow solar wind: From turbulence to extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Fast and slow solar wind exhibit variability across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, with evolving turbulence producing fluctuations on sub-hour timescales and the irregular solar cycle modulating the system over many years. Here, we apply the data quantile-quantile (DQQ) method [Tindale and Chapman 2016, 2017] to over 20 years of Wind data, to study the time evolution of the statistical distribution of plasma parameters in fast and slow solar wind. This model-independent method allows us to simultaneously explore the evolution of fluctuations across all scales. We find a two-part functional form for the statistical distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and its components, with each region of the distribution evolving separately over the solar cycle. Up to a value of 8nT, turbulent fluctuations dominate the distribution of the IMF, generating the approximately lognormal shape found by Burlaga [2001]. The mean of this core-turbulence region tracks solar cycle activity, while its variance remains constant, independent of the fast or slow state of the solar wind. However, when we test the lognormality of this core-turbulence component over time, we find the model provides a poor description of the data at solar maximum, where sharp peaks in the distribution dominate over the lognormal shape. At IMF values higher than 8nT, we find a separate, extremal distribution component, whose moments are sensitive to solar cycle phase, the peak activity of the cycle and the solar wind state. We further investigate these `extremal' values using burst analysis, where a burst is defined as a continuous period of exceedance over a predefined threshold. This form of extreme value statistics allows us to study the stochastic process underlying the time series, potentially supporting a probabilistic forecast of high-energy events. Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2016), Geophys. Res. Lett., 43(11) Tindale, E., and S.C. Chapman (2017), submitted Burlaga, L.F. (2001), J. Geophys. Res., 106(A8)

ERTS/Nimbus radiation environment information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.

1973-01-01

The results of the ERTS/Nimbus satellite investigation of electron flux levels are presented. Flux calculations were made with the use of two electron environment models, both of which are static and describe the environment during the solar maximum conditions of October 1967. It is concluded that the construction of these models makes it possible to infer a change of the average quiet time electron flux levels as a function of the solar cycle.

Organic solar cells and physics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csernovszky, Zoltán; Horváth, Ákos

2018-07-01

This paper explains the operational principles of a home-made organic solar cell with the representation of an electron-cycle on an energy-level diagram. We present test data for a home-made organic solar cell which operates as a galvanic cell and current source in an electrical circuit. To determine the maximum power of the cell, the optimal current was estimated with a linear approximation. Using different light sources and dyes, the electrical properties of organic solar cells were compared. The solar cells were studied by looking at spectrophotometric data from different sensitizer dyes, generated by a do-it-yourself diffraction grating spectroscope. The sensitizer dyes of solar cells were tested by the diffraction grating spectroscope. The data were analysed on a light-intensity‑wavelength diagram to discover which photons were absorbed and to understand the colours of the fruits containing these dyes. In terms of theoretical applications, the paper underlines the analogous nature of organic solar cells, a conventional single p‑n junction solar cell and the light-dependent reactions of photosynthesis, using energy-level diagrams of electron-cycles. To conclude, a classification of photon‑electron interactions in molecular systems and crystal lattices is offered, to show the importance of organic solar cells.

OAO-3 end of mission power subsystem evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tasevoli, M.

1982-01-01

End of mission tests were performed on the OAO-3 power subsystem in three component areas: solar array, nickel-cadmium batteries and the On-Board Processor (OBP) power boost operation. Solar array evaluation consisted of analyzing array performance characteristics and comparing them to earlier flight data. Measured solar array degradation of 14.1 to 17.7% after 8 1/3 years is in good agreement with theortical radiation damage losses. Battery discharge characteristics were compared to results of laboratory life cycle tests performed on similar cells. Comparison of cell voltage profils reveals close correlation and confirms the validity of real time life cycle simulation. The successful operation of the system in the OBP/power boost regulation mode demonstrates the excellent life, reliability and greater system utilization of power subsystems using maximum power trackers.

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.

2017-12-01

In late 2014, when the current solar cycle 24 was initiating its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to those of the more active solar cycle 23. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted during several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually large increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. Three-dimensional reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles which was particularly efficient in the case of solar cycle 24.

The Sun: One Year in One Image

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Image released: April 22, 2013 In the three years since it first provided images of the sun in the spring of 2010, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory has had virtually unbroken coverage of the sun's rise toward solar maximum, the peak of solar activity in its regular 11-year cycle. This image is a composite of 25 separate images spanning the period of April 16, 2012, to April 15, 2013. It uses the SDO AIA wavelength of 171 angstroms and reveals the zones on the sun where active regions are most common during this part of the solar cycle. Credit: NASA/GSFC/SDO Learn more about this image. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

High-latitude spacecraft charging in low-Earth polar orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frooninckx, Thomas B.

Spacecraft charging within the upper ionosphere is commonly thought to be insignificant and thus has received little attention. Recent experimental evidence has shown that electric potential differences as severe as 680 volts can develop between Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar-orbiting (840 kilometers) spacecraft and their high-latitude environment. To explore space vehicle charging in this region more fully, an analysis was performed using DMSP F6, F7, F8, and F9 satellite precipitating particle and ambient plasma measurements taken during the winters of 1986-87 (solar minimum) and 1989-90 (solar maximum). An extreme solar cycle dependence was discovered as charging occurred more frequently and with greater severity during the period of solar minimum. One hundred seventy charging events ranging from -46 to 1,430 volts were identified, and satellite measurements and Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) output were used to characterize the environments which generated and inhibited these potentials. All current sources were considered to determine the cause of the solar cycle dependence.

The magnetic field of the earth - Performance considerations for space-based observing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, W. J., Jr.; Taylor, P. T.; Schnetzler, C. C.; Langel, R. A.

1985-01-01

Basic problems inherent in carrying out observations of the earth magnetic field from space are reviewed. It is shown that while useful observations of the core and crustal fields are possible at the peak of the solar cycle, the greatest useful data volume is obtained during solar minimum. During the last three solar cycles, the proportion of data with a planetary disturbance index of less than 2 at solar maximum was in the range 0.4-0.8 in comparison with solar minimum. It is found that current state of the art orbit determination techniques should eliminate orbit error as a problem in gravitational field measurements from space. The spatial resolution obtained for crustal field anomalies during the major satellite observation programs of the last 30 years are compared in a table. The relationship between observing altitude and the spatial resolution of magnetic field structures is discussed. Reference is made to data obtained using the Magsat, the Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), and instruments on board the Space Shuttle.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J.

2010-04-01

We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle.

Natural and Induced Environment in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Heinbockel, John H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Badhwar, Gautam D.; Atwell, William; Huston, Stuart L.

2002-01-01

The long-term exposure of astronauts on the developing International Space Station (ISS) requires an accurate knowledge of the internal exposure environment for human risk assessment and other onboard processes. The natural environment is moderated by the solar wind which varies over the solar cycle. The neutron environment within the Shuttle in low Earth orbit has two sources. A time dependent model for the ambient environment is used to evaluate the natural and induced environment. The induced neutron environment is evaluated using measurements on STS-31 and STS-36 near the 1990 solar maximum.

Global Network of Slow Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.; Antiochos, S. K.; Zhao, X.; Neugebauer, M.

2012-01-01

The streamer belt region surrounding the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is generally treated as the primary or sole source of the slow solar wind. Synoptic maps of solar wind speed predicted by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model during selected periods of solar cycle 23, however, show many areas of slow wind displaced from the streamer belt. These areas commonly have the form of an arc that is connected to the streamer belt at both ends. The arcs mark the boundaries between fields emanating from different coronal holes of the same polarity and thus trace the paths of belts of pseudostreamers, i.e., unipolar streamers that form over double arcades and lack current sheets. The arc pattern is consistent with the predicted topological mapping of the narrow open corridor or singular separator line that must connect the holes and, thus, consistent with the separatrix-web model of the slow solar wind. Near solar maximum, pseudostreamer belts stray far from the HCS-associated streamer belt and, together with it, form a global-wide web of slow wind. Recognition of pseudostreamer belts as prominent sources of slow wind provides a new template for understanding solar wind stream structure, especially near solar maximum.

Influence of the Sun on the Space Weather Conditions: Cycle 24 Observations from 1 AU to Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christina

2016-10-01

Motivated by future crewed missions to Mars, there is a growing need to advance our knowledge of the heliospheric conditions between the Earth ( 1 AU) orbit and Mars ( 1.5 AU) orbit locations. Comparative conditions at these locations are of special interest since they are separated by the interplanetary region where most solar wind stream interaction regions develop. These regions alter the propagation of solar-heliospheric disturbances, including the interplanetary CME-driven shocks that create the space radiation (via solar energetic particles) that are hazardous to humans. Although the deep Cycle 23 minimum and the modestly active Cycle 24 maximum have produced generally weaker solar events and heliospheric conditions, observations from solar and planetary missions during the SDO era provide a unique opportunity to study how and to what extent the solar eruptive events impact the local space environments at Earth (and/or STEREO-A) and Mars, and for a given solar-heliospheric event period how the geospace and near-Mars space conditions compare and contrast with one another. Such observations include those from SDO, L1 observers (ACE,WIND,SOHO) and STEREO-A at 1 AU, and Mars Express, MSL, and MAVEN at 1.5 AU. Using these observations, we will highlight a number of Cycle 24 space weather events observed along the 1-AU orbit (at Earth and/or STEREO-A) and Mars that are triggered by CMEs, SEPs, flares, and/or CIRs. Numerical 3D simulations from WSA-Enlil-cone will also be presented to provide global context to the events discussed.

The Floor in the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Revisited

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-07

index of geomagnetic activity (Svalgaard and Cliver, 2005). This empir- ical/historical evidence for a lower limit or floor in B was substantiated by...with the model of Fisk and Schwadron (2001) for the reversal of the polar magnetic fields at solar maximum. The Fisk and Schwadron model, based on the...interdiurnal variability [IDV] index of geomagnetic activity (Svalgaard and Cliver, 2005, 2010). DM, for minima preceding cycles 22 – 24, is the absolute

Solar Cycle 24 UV Radiation: Lowest in more than 6 Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroder, Klaus-Peter; Mittag, Marco; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.

2015-01-01

Using spectra taken by the robotic telescope ``TIGRE'' (see Fig. 1 and the TIGRE-poster presented by Schmitt et al. at this conference) and its mid-resolution (R=20,000) HEROS double-channel echelle spectrograph, we present our measurements of the solar Ca II H&K chromospheric emission. Using moonlight, we applied the calibration and definition of the Mt. Wilson S-index , which allows a direct comparison with historic observations, reaching back to the early 1960's. At the same time, coming from the same EUV emitting plage regions, the Ca II H&K emission is a good proxy for the latter, which is of interest as a forcing factor in climate models. Our measurements probe the weak, asynchronous activity cycle 24 around its 2nd maximum during the past winter. Our S-values suggest that this maximum is the lowest in chromospheric emission since at least 60 years -- following the longest and deepest minimum since a century. Our observations suggest a similarly long-term (on a scale of decades) low of the far-UV radiation, which should be considered by the next generation of climate models. The current, very interesting activity behaviour calls for a concerted effort on long-term solar monitoring.

The relationship of the large-scale solar field to the interplanetary magnetic field - What will Ulysses find?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoeksema, J. T.

1986-01-01

Using photospheric magnetic field observations obtained at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory, results from a potential field model for the present solar cycle are given, and qualitative predictions of the IMF that Ulysses may encounter are presented. Results indicate that the IMF consists of large regions of opposite polarity separated by a neutral sheet (NS) (extended to at least 50 deg) and a four-sector structure near solar minimum (produced by small quadripolar NS warps). The latitudinal extent of the NS increases following minimum and the structure near maximum includes multiple NSs, while a simplified IMF is found during the declining phase.

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

1989-01-01

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data.

Satellite Measurements of Middle Atmospheric Impacts by Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, C.; Labow, G.; DeLand, M.; Fleming, E.; Sinnhuber, M.; Russell, J.

2005-01-01

Solar proton events (SPEs) are known to have caused changes in constituents in the Earth's neutral polar middle atmosphere in the most recent solar maximum period (solar cycle 23). The highly energetic protons produced ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents in the polar cap regions (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), which led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HOx increases led to short-lived ozone decreases in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HOx constituents. Polar middle mesospheric ozone decreases greater than 50% were observed and computed to last for hours to days due to the enhanced HOx. The NOy increases led to long-lived polar stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in this region. Upper stratospheric ozone decreases of greater than 10% were computed to last for several months past the solar events in the winter polar regions because of the enhanced NOy. Solar cycle 23 was especially replete with SPEs and huge fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, September and November 2001, April 2002, October 2003, and January 2005. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months in this cycle. Observations by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments along with GSFC 2D Model predictions will be shown in this talk.

Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface-Flow Divergence: A Proxy of Magnetic Activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komm, R.; Howe, R.; Hill, F.

2017-09-01

We study the solar-cycle variation of subsurface flows from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis covering about 15 years and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams covering more than 6 years. After subtracting the average rotation rate and meridional flow, we have calculated the divergence of the horizontal residual flows from the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 through the declining phase of Cycle 24. The subsurface flows are mainly divergent at quiet regions and convergent at locations of high magnetic activity. The relationship is essentially linear between divergence and magnetic activity at all activity levels at depths shallower than about 10 Mm. At greater depths, the relationship changes sign at locations of high activity; the flows are increasingly divergent at locations with a magnetic activity index (MAI) greater than about 24 G. The flows are more convergent by about a factor of two during the rising phase of Cycle 24 than during the declining phase of Cycle 23 at locations of medium and high activity (about 10 to 40 G MAI) from the surface to at least 10 Mm. The subsurface divergence pattern of Solar Cycle 24 first appears during the declining phase of Cycle 23 and is present during the extended minimum. It appears several years before the magnetic pattern of the new cycle is noticeable in synoptic maps. Using linear regression, we estimate the amount of magnetic activity that would be required to generate the precursor pattern and find that it should be almost twice the amount of activity that is observed.

DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNETIC BIPOLES ON THE SUN OVER THREE SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tlatov, Andrey G.; Vasil'eva, Valerya V.; Pevtsov, Alexei A., E-mail: tlatov@mail.r, E-mail: apevtsov@nso.ed

We employ synoptic full disk longitudinal magnetograms to study latitudinal distribution and orientation (tilt) of magnetic bipoles in the course of sunspot activity during cycles 21, 22, and 23. The data set includes daily observations from the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (1975-2002) and Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (MDI/SOHO, 1996-2009). Bipole pairs were selected on the basis of proximity and flux balance of two neighboring flux elements of opposite polarity. Using the area of the bipoles, we have separated them into small quiet-Sun bipoles (QSBs), ephemeral regions (ERs), and active regions (ARs). Wemore » find that in their orientation, ERs and ARs follow Hale-Nicholson polarity rule. As expected, AR tilts follow Joy's law. ERs, however, show significantly larger tilts of opposite sign for a given hemisphere. QSBs are randomly oriented. Unlike ARs, ERs also show a preference in their orientation depending on the polarity of the large-scale magnetic field. These orientation properties may indicate that some ERs may form at or near the photosphere via the random encounter of opposite polarity elements, while others may originate in the convection zone at about the same location as ARs. The combined latitudinal distribution of ERs and ARs exhibits a clear presence of Spoerer's butterfly diagram (equatorward drift in the course of a solar cycle). ERs extend the ARs' 'wing' of the butterfly diagram to higher latitudes. This high latitude extension of ERs suggests an extended solar cycle with the first magnetic elements of the next cycle developing shortly after the maximum of the previous cycle. The polarity orientation and tilt of ERs may suggest the presence of poloidal fields of two configurations (new cycle and old cycle) in the convection zone at the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Spacecraft Charging Hazards In Low-earth Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, P. C.

The space environment in low-Earth orbit (LEO) has until recently been considered quite benign to high levels of spacecraft charging. However, it has been found that the DMSP spacecraft at 840 km can charge to very large negative voltages (up to - 2000 V) when encountering intense precipitating electron events (auroral arcs) while traversing the auroral zone. The occurrence frequency of charging events, defined as when the spacecraft charged to levels exceeding 100 V negative, was highly correlated with the 11-year solar cycle with the largest number of events occurring during solar minimum. This was due to the requirement that the background thermal plasma den- sity be low, at most 104 cm-2. During solar maximum, the plasma density is typically well above that level due to the solar EUV ionizing radiation, and although the oc- currence frequency of auroral arcs is considerably greater than at solar minimum, the occurrence of high-level charging is minimal. Indeed, of the over 1200 events found during the most recent solar cycle, none occurred during the last solar maximum. This has implications to a number of LEO satellite programs, including the International Space Station (ISS). The plasma density in the ISS orbit, at a much lower altitude than DMSP, is well above that at 840 km and rarely below 104 cm-2. However, in the wake of the ISS, the plasma density can be 2 orders of magnitude or more lower than the background density and thus conditions are ripe for significant charging effects. With an inclination of 51.6 degrees, the ISS does enter the auroral zone, particularly during geomagnetic storms and substorms when the auroral boundary can penetrate to very low latitudes. This has significant implications for EVA operations in the ISS wake.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS: OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.-L.; Zhang, H.

We statistically analyze the elemental galactic cosmic ray (GCR) composition measurements of elements 5 ≤ Z ≤ 28 within the energy range 30–500 MeV/nucleon from the CRIS instrument on board the ACE spacecraft in orbit about the L1 Lagrange point during the period from 1997 to 2014. Similarly to the last unusual solar minimum, the elevated elemental intensities of all heavy nuclei during the current weak solar maximum in 2014 are ∼40% higher than that of the previous solar maximum in 2002, which has been attributed to the weak modulation associated with low solar activity levels during the ongoing weakestmore » solar maximum since the dawn of space age. In addition, the abundance ratios of heavy nuclei with respect to elemental oxygen are generally independent of kinetic energy per nucleon in the energy region 60–200 MeV/nuc, in good agreement with previous experiments. Furthermore, the abundance ratios of most relatively abundant species, except carbon, exhibit considerable solar-cycle variation, which are obviously positively correlated with the sunspot numbers with about one-year time lag. We also find that the percentage variation of abundance ratios for most elements are approximately identical. These preliminary results provide valuable insights into the characteristics of elemental heavy nuclei composition and place new and significant constraints on future GCR heavy nuclei propagation and modulation models.« less

Survey of the spectral properties of turbulence in the solar wind, the magnetospheres of Venus and Earth, at solar minimum and maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, Marius M.

2014-05-01

In the framework of the European FP7 project STORM ("Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals") we analyze the properties of turbulence in various regions of the solar system, for the minimum and respectively maximum of the solar activity. The main scientific objective of STORM is to advance the understanding of the turbulent energy transfer, intermittency and multifractals in space plasmas. Specific analysis methods are applied on magnetic field and plasma data provided by Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, as well as other solar system missions (e.g. Giotto, Cassini). In this paper we provide an overview of the spectral properties of turbulence derived from Power Spectral Densities (PSD) computed in the solar wind (from Ulysses, Cluster, Venus Express) and at the interface of planetary magnetospheres with the solar wind (from Venus Express, Cluster). Ulysses provides data in the solar wind between 1992 and 2008, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. We selected only those Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We analyzed Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We investigated Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), the magnetosheath and few crossings of other key magnetospheric regions (cusp, plasma sheet). We organize our PSD results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the properties of turbulence for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the spectral similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence, the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM, and a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Investigation of reliability attributes and accelerated stress factors on terrestrial solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, J. L.; Lathrop, J. W.

1979-01-01

The results of accelerated stress testing of four different types of silicon terrestrial solar cells are discussed. The accelerated stress tests used included bias-temperature tests, bias-temperature-humidity tests, thermal cycle and thermal shock tests, and power cycle tests. Characterization of the cells was performed before stress testing and at periodic down-times, using electrical measurement, visual inspection, and metal adherence pull tests. Electrical parameters measured included short-circuit current, open circuit voltage, and output power, voltage, and current at the maximum power point. Incorporated in the report are the distributions of the prestress electrical data for all cell types. Data were also obtained on cell series and shunt resistance.

Observed Seasonal to Decadal-Scale Responses in Mesospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis

2010-01-01

The 14-yr (1991-2005) time series of mesospheric water vapor from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques for their6 seasonal and longer-period terms from 45S to 45N. The distribution of annual average water vapor shows a decrease from a maximum of 6.5 ppmv at 0.2 hPa to about 3.2 ppmv at 0.01 hPa, in accord with the effects of the photolysis of water vapor due to the Lyman-flux. The distribution of the semi-annual cycle amplitudes is nearly hemispherically symmetric at the low latitudes, while that of the annual cycles show larger amplitudes in the northern hemisphere. The diagnosed 11-yr, or solar cycle, max minus min, water vapor values are of the order of several percent at 0.2 hPa to about 23% at 0.01 hPa. The solar cycle terms have larger values in the northern than in the southern hemisphere, particularly in the middle mesosphere, and the associated linear trend terms are anomalously large in the same region. Those anomalies are due, at least in part, to the fact that the amplitudes of the seasonal cycles were varying at northern mid latitudes during 1991-2005, while the corresponding seasonal terms of the MLR model do not allow for that possibility. Although the 11-yr variation in water vapor is essentially hemispherically-symmetric and anti-phased with the solar cycle flux near 0.01 hPa, the concurrent temperature variations produce slightly colder conditions at the northern high latitudes at solar minimum. It is concluded that this temperature difference is most likely the reason for the greater occurrence of polar mesospheric clouds at the northern versus the southern high latitudes at solar minimum during the HALOE time period.

Radiation measurements and doses at SST altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foelsche, T.

1972-01-01

Radiation components and dose equivalents due to galactic and solar cosmic rays in the high atmosphere, especially at SST altitudes, are presented. The dose equivalent rate for the flight personnel flying 500 hours per year in cruise altitudes of 60,000-65,000 feet (18-19.5 km) in high magnetic latitudes is about 0.75-1.0 rem per year averaged over the solar cycle, or about 15-20 percent of the maximum permissible dose rate.

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Solar cycle activity and atmospheric dynamics revealed by Be-7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulan, A.; Aldahan, A.; Possnert, G.; Vintersved, I.

2003-04-01

In this study we present ^7Be and 137Cs concentrations in aerosols collected on surface air filters for the period 1972-2000 from three stations in Sweden covering latitudes 56^o to 70^o. The cosmogenic isotope ^7Be (T1/2 = 53.4 days) is produced by interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. ^7Be is adsorbed onto aerosol particles after its formation, and removed from the atmosphere by both dry and wet deposition (atmospheric residence time of about one year). Maximum production of ^7Be occurs in the polar regions and the maximum deposition is found in the middle latitudes. After its production (mainly in the stratosphere) the ^7Be isotope is subjected to vertical and horizontal transport processes within the atmosphere and accordingly can act as a tracer of air mass origin and its approximate age. Furthermore, the production of cosmogenic isotopes is strongly influenced by the solar wind (solar activity, mainly energetic protons) and hence terrestrial records of ^7Be are directly reflecting the activity of the sun. Our ^7Be results reveal seasonal changes and together with the 137Cs records confirm a long-term transport and a strong coupling with air masses from middle and low latitudes. An apparent correlation between the 11-year solar cycle activity and ^7Be is found and we also observe that precipitation effectively depletes ^7Be from the atmosphere through washout of aerosols.

Economic and technical aspects of repair, servicing, and retrieval of low earth orbit free flying spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cepollina, F. J.

1982-01-01

The economic and technical aspects of the Solar Maximum Observatory Repair Mission at NASA are presented, in an effort to demonstrate the Space Shuttle capability to rendezvous with and repair on-orbit the Solar Maximum Observatory (SMM). A failure in the Attitude Control Subsystem (ACS) after 10 months of operation caused a loss in precision pointing capability. The Multimission Modular Spacecraft (MMS) used for the mission, was designed with on-orbit repairability, and to correct various instrument anomalies, repiar kits such as an electronics box, a thermal aperture closure, and a high energy particle reflection baffle will be used. In addition, a flight support system will be used to berth, electrically safe, and support all the repair activities. A two year effort is foreseen, and the economic return on SMM will be $176 M, in addition to two to three years of solar observation. The mission will eventually conduct studies on flare as a function of solar cycle.

A preliminary analysis on the dependence of the human diseases on the relative number of sunspot.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuehua; Song, Yi

1996-03-01

On the basis of the solar-terrestrial relations point of view, the paper investigates the influences of solar activities upon the human race. According to the data of Nanjing Hospital for Infectious Diseases, both the curve of the occurrence of various diseases and the relative number of sunspots with time are drawn, and their related coefficients are calculated. The preliminary results show that the incidences of typhus and scarlet fever keep in step with the 11-year cycle of solar activities, they get the maximum at the same year, while other diseases are not definite.

Energy-Efficient Underwater Surveillance by Means of Hybrid Aquacopters

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

life-cycle analysis, photovoltaic device maximum power point tracking (MPPT), and surface treatments for antifouling of the solar cells can be...108 3. Power Conversion and Storage...15 Figure 10. Shallow Water Analysis and Forecast System product, displaying regional ocean current vectors overlaying a sea surface

Hybrid polymer/ZnO solar cells sensitized by PbS quantum dots

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Poly[2-methoxy-5-(2-ethylhexyloxy-p-phenylenevinylene)]/ZnO nanorod hybrid solar cells consisting of PbS quantum dots [QDs] prepared by a chemical bath deposition method were fabricated. An optimum coating of the QDs on the ZnO nanorods could strongly improve the performance of the solar cells. A maximum power conversion efficiency of 0.42% was achieved for the PbS QDs' sensitive solar cell coated by 4 cycles, which was increased almost five times compared with the solar cell without using PbS QDs. The improved efficiency is attributed to the cascade structure formed by the PbS QD coating, which results in enhanced open-circuit voltage and exciton dissociation efficiency. PMID:22313746

The measurement of solar spectral irradiances at wavelengths between 40 and 4000 A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Timothy, J. G.

1983-01-01

Two 1/8-meter Ebert-Fastie spectrometers were refurbished and upgraded in order to measure the solar spectral irradiances between 1160 A and 3100 A. An evacuated 1/4-meter normal-incidence spectrometer was also fabricated for spectral irradiance measurements over the wavelength range from 1250 A to 250 A. Procedures were developed for the calibration of all three instruments utilizing standards at the National Bureau of Standards. The two 1/8-meter spectrometers were flown to measure the solar spectral irradiances near solar maximum on two different dates. Data from these flights were analyzed. The performance of the spectrometers, and the results of an analysis of the variabilities of the solar spectral irradiances over the solar cycles 20 and 21 are discussed.

Quasi-decadal variations in total ozone content, wind velocity, temperature, and geopotential height over the Arosa station (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visheratin, K. N.

2016-01-01

We present the results of the analysis of the phase relationships between the quasi-decadal variations (QDVs) (in the range from 8 to 13 years) in the total ozone content (TOC) at the Arosa station for 1932-2012 and a number of meteorological parameters: monthly mean values of temperature, meridional and zonal components of wind velocity, and geopotential heights for isobaric surfaces in the layer of 10-925 hPa over the Arosa station using the Fourier methods and composite and cross-wavelet analysis. It has been shown that the phase relationships of the QDVs in the TOC and meteorological parameters with an 11-year cycle of solar activity change in time and height; starting with cycle 24 of solar activity (2008-2010), the variations in the TOC and a number of meteorological parameters occur in almost counter phase with the variations in solar activity. The periods of the maximum growth rate of the temperature at isobaric surfaces 50-100 hPa nearly correspond to the TOC's maximum periods, and the periods of the maximum temperature correspond the periods of the decrease of the peak TOC rate. The highest correlation coefficients between the meridional wind velocity and temperature are observed at 50 hPa at positive and negative delays of ~27 months. The times of the maxima (minima) of the QDVs in the meridional wind velocity nearly correspond to the periods of the maximum amplification (attenuation) rate of the temperature of the QDVs. The QDVs in the geopotential heights of isobaric surfaces fall behind the variations in the TOC by an average of 1.5 years everywhere except in the lower troposphere. In general, the periods of variations in the TOC and meteorological parameters in the range of 8-13 years are smaller than the period of variations in the level of solar activity.

CME Interaction with Coronal Holes and Their Interplanetary Consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.

2008-01-01

A significant number of interplanetary (IP) shocks (-17%) during cycle 23 were not followed by drivers. The number of such "driverless" shocks steadily increased with the solar cycle with 15%, 33%, and 52% occurring in the rise, maximum, and declining phase of the solar cycle. The solar sources of 15% of the driverless shocks were very close the central meridian of the Sun (within approx.15deg), which is quite unexpected. More interestingly, all the driverless shocks with their solar sources near the solar disk center occurred during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. When we investigated the coronal environment of the source regions of driverless shocks, we found that in each case there was at least one coronal hole nearby suggesting that the coronal holes might have deflected the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) away from the Sun-Earth line. The presence of abundant low-latitude coronal holes during the declining phase further explains why CMEs originating close to the disk center mimic the limb CMEs, which normally lead to driverless shocks due to purely geometrical reasons. We also examined the solar source regions of shocks with drivers. For these, the coronal holes were located such that they either had no influence on the CME trajectories. or they deflected the CMEs towards the Sun-Earth line. We also obtained the open magnetic field distribution on the Sun by performing a potential field source surface extrapolation to the corona. It was found that the CMEs generally move away from the open magnetic field regions. The CME-coronal hole interaction must be widespread in the declining phase, and may have a significant impact on the geoeffectiveness of CMEs.

Seasonal and Solar Activity Variations of f3 Layer and StF-4 F-Layer Quadruple Stratification) Near the Equatorial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardelli, A.; Fagundes, P. R.; Pezzopane, M.; Kavutarapu, V.

2016-12-01

The ionospheric F-layer shape and electron density peak variations depend on local time, latitude, longitude, season, solar cycle, geomagnetic activity, and electrodynamic conditions. In particular, the equatorial and low latitude F-layer may change its shape and peak height in a few minutes due to electric fields induced by propagation of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) or thermospheric - ionospheric coupling. This F-layer electrodynamics feature characterizing the low latitudes is one of the most remarkable ionospheric physics research field. The study of multiple-stratification of the F-layer has the initial records in the mid of the 20th century. Since then, many studies were focused on F3 layer. The diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations of the F3 layer characteristics have been investigated by several researchers. Recently, investigations on multiple-stratifications of F-layer received an important boost after the quadruple stratification (StF-4) was observed at Palmas (10.3°S, 48.3°W; dip latitude 5.5°S - near equatorial region), Brazil (Tardelli & Fagundes, JGR, 2015). This study present the latest findings related with the seasonal and solar activity characteristics of the F3 layer and StF-4 near the equatorial region during the period from 2002 to 2006. A significant connection between StF-4 and F3 layer has been noticed, since the StF-4 is always preceded and followed by an F3 layer appearance. However, the F3 layer and StF-4 present different seasonal and solar cycle variations. At a near equatorial station Palmas, the F3 layer shows the maximum and minimum occurrence during summer and winter seasons respectively. On the contrary, the StF-4 presents the maximum and minimum occurrence during winter and summer seasons respectively. While the F3 layer occurrence is not affected by solar cycle, the StF-4 appearance is instead more frequent during High Solar Activity (HSA).

High-resolution observations of the polar magnetic fields of the sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, H.; Varsik, J.; Zirin, H.

1994-01-01

High-resolution magnetograms of the solar polar region were used for the study of the polar magnetic field. In contrast to low-resolution magnetograph observations which measure the polar magnetic field averaged over a large area, we focused our efforts on the properties of the small magnetic elements in the polar region. Evolution of the filling factor (the ratio of the area occupied by the magnetic elements to the total area) of these magnetic elements, as well as the average magnetic field strength, were studied during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22, from early 1991 to mid-1993. We found that during the sunspot maximum period, the polar regions were occupied by about equal numbers of positive and negative magnetic elements, with equal average field strength. As the solar cycle progresses toward sunspot minimum, the magnetic field elements in the polar region become predominantly of one polarity. The average magnetic field of the dominant polarity elements also increases with the filling factor. In the meanwhile, both the filling factor and the average field strength of the non-dominant polarity elements decrease. The combined effects of the changing filling factors and average field strength produce the observed evolution of the integrated polar flux over the solar cycle. We compared the evolutionary histories of both filling factor and average field strength, for regions of high (70-80 deg) and low (60-70 deg) latitudes. For the south pole, we found no significant evidence of difference in the time of reversal. However, the low-latitude region of the north pole did reverse polarity much earlier than the high-latitude region. It later showed an oscillatory behavior. We suggest this may be caused by the poleward migration of flux from a large active region in 1989 with highly imbalanced flux.

A new solar reference spectrum from 165 to 3088 nm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Bolsée, David; Pereira, Nuno; Bekki, Slimane; Hauchecorne, Alain; Irbah, Abdenour; Cessateur, Gaël; Sluse, Dominique

2017-04-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017 the SOLAR/SOLSPEC spectro-radiometer on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry). In particular, a new reference solar spectrum is established covering most of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum. Temporal variability in the UV (165 to 400 nm) is presented in several wavelengths bands. These results are possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and new procedures to account for thermal and aging advanced corrections. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and compare favorably with other instruments.

Unusual Polar Conditions in Solar Cycle 24 and Their Implications for Cycle 25

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Akiyama, Sachiko

2016-01-01

We report on the prolonged solar-maximum conditions until late 2015 at the north-polar region of the Sun indicated by the occurrence of high-latitude prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness temperature close to the quiet-Sun level. These two aspects of solar activity indicate that the polarity reversal was completed by mid-2014 in the south and late 2015 in the north. The microwave brightness in the south-polar region has increased to a level exceeding the level of the Cycle 23/24 minimum, but just started to increase in the north. The northsouth asymmetry in the polarity reversal has switched from that in Cycle 23. These observations lead us to the hypothesis that the onset of Cycle 25 in the northern hemisphere is likely to be delayed with respect to that in the southern hemisphere. We find that the unusual condition in the north is a direct consequence of the arrival of poleward surges of opposite polarity from the active region belt. We also find that multiple rush-to-the-pole episodes were indicated by the PE locations that lined up at the boundary between opposite-polarity surges. The high-latitude PEs occurred in the boundary between the incumbent polar flux and the insurgent flux of opposite polarity.

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

Chromospheric Activity of HAT-P-11: An Unusually Active Planet-hosting K Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Brett M.; Hawley, Suzanne L.; Hebb, Leslie; Sakari, Charli; Davenport, James. R. A.; Isaacson, Howard; Howard, Andrew W.; Montet, Benjamin T.; Agol, Eric

2017-10-01

Kepler photometry of the hot Neptune host star HAT-P-11 suggests that its spot latitude distribution is comparable to the Sun’s near solar maximum. We search for evidence of an activity cycle in the Ca II H & K chromospheric emission S-index with archival Keck/HIRES spectra and observations from the echelle spectrograph on the Astrophysical Research Consortium 3.5 m Telescope at Apache Point Observatory. The chromospheric emission of HAT-P-11 is consistent with an ≳ 10 year activity cycle, which plateaued near maximum during the Kepler mission. In the cycle that we observed, the star seemed to spend more time near active maximum than minimum. We compare the {log}{R}{HK}{\\prime } normalized chromospheric emission index of HAT-P-11 with other stars. HAT-P-11 has unusually strong chromospheric emission compared to planet-hosting stars of similar effective temperature and rotation period, perhaps due to tides raised by its planet.

Interactions of Dust Grains with Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Cycle Variations of the F-Coronal Brightness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragot, B. R.; Kahler, S. W.

2003-01-01

The density of interplanetary dust increases sunward to reach its maximum in the F corona, where its scattered white-light emission dominates that of the electron K corona above about 3 Solar Radius. The dust will interact with both the particles and fields of antisunward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the effects of the CME/dust interactions we consider the dominant forces, with and without CMEs. acting on the dust in the 3-5 Solar Radius region. Dust grain orbits are then computed to compare the drift rates from 5 to 3 Solar Radius. for periods of minimum and maximum solar activity, where a simple CME model is adopted to distinguish between the two periods. The ion-drag force, even in the quiet solar wind, reduces the drift time by a significant factor from its value estimated with the Poynting-Robertson drag force alone. The ion-drag effects of CMEs result in even shorter drift times of the large (greater than or approx. 3 microns) dust grains. hence faster depletion rates and lower dust-pain densities, at solar maxima. If dominated by thermal emission, the near-infrared brightness will thus display solar cycle variations close to the dust plane of symmetry. While trapping the smallest of the grains, the CME magnetic fields also scatter the grains of intermediate size (0.1-3 microns) in latitude. If light scattering by small grains close to the Sun dominates the optical brightness. the scattering by the CME magnetic fields will result in a solar cycle variation of the optical brightness distribution not exceeding 100% at high latitudes, with a higher isotropy reached at solar maxima. A good degree of latitudinal isotropy is already reached at low solar activity since the magnetic fields of the quiet solar wind so close to the Sun are able to scatter the small (less than or approx. 3 microns) grains up to the polar regions in only a few days or less, producing strong perturbations of their trajectories in less than half their orbital periods. Finally, we consider possible observable consequences of individual CME/dust interactions. We show that the dust grains very likely have no observable effect on the dynamics of CMEs. The effect of an individual CME on the dust grains, however, might serve as a forecasting tool for the directions and amplitudes of the magnetic fields within the CME.

Solar activity variations of equatorial spread F occurrence and sustenance during different seasons over Indian longitudes: Empirical model and causative mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhav Haridas, M. K.; Manju, G.; Arunamani, T.

2018-05-01

A comprehensive analysis using nearly two decades of ionosonde data is carried out on the seasonal and solar cycle variations of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) irregularities over magnetic equatorial location Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E). The corresponding Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability growth rates (γ) are also estimated. A seasonal pattern of ESF occurrence and the corresponding γ is established for low solar (LSA), medium solar (MSA) and high solar (HSA) activity periods. For LSA, it is seen that the γ maximizes during post sunset time with comparable magnitudes for autumnal equinox (AE), vernal equinox (VE) and winter solstice (WS), while for summer solstice (SS) it maximizes in the post-midnight period. Concurrent responses are seen in the ESF occurrence pattern. For MSA, γ maximizes during post-sunset for VE followed by WS and AE while SS maximises during post-midnight period. The ESF occurrence for MSA is highest for VE (80%), followed by AE (70%), WS (60%) and SS (50%). In case of HSA, maximum γ occurs for VE followed by AE, WS and SS. The concurrent ESF occurrence maximizes for VE and AE (90%), WS and SS at 70%. The solar cycle variation of γ is examined. γ shows a linear variation with F10.7 cm flux. Further, ESF percentage occurrence and duration show an exponential and linear variation respectively with γ. An empirical model on the solar activity dependence of ESF occurrence and sustenance time over Indian longitudes is arrived at using the database spanning two solar cycles for the first time.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilpua, E. K. J.; Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show thatmore » while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.« less

Study of Ionospheric Indexes T and MF2 related to R12 for Solar Cycles 19-21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, Lucia

2013-04-01

Modern worldwide communications are mainly based on satellite systems, remote communication networks, and advanced technologies. The most important space weather "meteorological" events produce negative effects on signal transmissions. Magnetic storm conditions that follow coronal mass ejections are particularly of great importance for radio communication at HF frequencies (3-30 MHz range), because the Ionization increase (or decrease), significantly over (or below), the Average Values. Nowadays new technologies make possible to establish Geophysical Observatories and monitor the sun almost in real time giving information about geomagnetic indices. Space Weather programs have interesting software predictions of foF2 producing maps and plots, every some minutes. The Average Values of the ionospheric parameters mainly depend on the position, hour, season and the phase of the 11-year cycle of the solar activity. Around 1990´s several ionospheric indexes were suggested to better predict the state of the foF2 monthly media, as: IF2, G, T and MF2, based on foF2 data from different latitude ionospheric observatories. They really show better seasonal changes than monthly solar indexes of solar flux F10.7 or the international sunspot numbers Ri. The main purpose of this paper is to present an analogic model for the ionospheric index MF2, to establish the average long term predictions of this index. Changes of phase from one cycle to the other of one component of the model is found to fit the data. The usefulness of this model could be the prediction of the ionospheric normal conditions for one entire solar cycle having just the prediction of the maximum of the next smooth sunspot number R12. In this presentation, comparisons of the Australian T index and and the Mikhailov MF2 index show an hysteresis variation with the solar monthly index Ri, such dependence is quite well represented by a polynomial fit of degree 6 for rising and decaying fases for solar cycles 19, 20 and 21.

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.; Boclet, B.; Wojak, J.; Vibert, D.

2017-04-01

In late 2014, when the current Solar Cycle 24 entered its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to the peak values of the more active Solar Cycle 23. A comparison of the temporal variation of the white-light corona with the variations of several indices and proxies of solar activity indicate that it best matches the variation of the total magnetic field. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted for several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually high increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. A 3D reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences, although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles, which was particularly efficient in the case of Solar Cycle 24.

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, D.M.; Misios, S.; Gray, L. J.; Tourpali, K.; Matthes, K.; Hood, L.; Schmidt, H.; Chiodo, G.; Thieblemont, R.; Rozanov, E.;

Changes in the concentration of mesospheric O3 and OH during a highly relativistic electron precipitation event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, R. A.; Jackman, C. H.; Baker, D. N.; Herrero, F. A.

Highly relativistic electron precipitation events (HREs) can provide a major source of energy affecting ionization levels and minor constituents in the mesosphere. Based on satellite data, these events are most pronounced during the minimum of the solar sunspot cycle, increasing in intensity, spectral hardness and frequency of occurrence as solar activity declines. Furthermore, although the precipitating flux is modulated diurnally in local time, the noontime maximum is very broad, exceeding several hours. Since such events can be sustained up to several days, their integrated effect in the mesosphere can dominate over those of other external sources such as relativistic electron precipitation events (REPs) and auroral precipitation. In this work, the effects of HRE relativistic electrons on the neutral minor constituents OH and O3 are modeled during a modest HRE, to estimate their anticipated impact on mesospheric heating and dynamics. The data to be discussed and analyzed were obtained by rocket at Poker Flat, Alaska on May 13, 1990 during an HRE observed at midday near the peak of the sunspot cycle. Solid state detectors were used to measure the electron fluxes and their energy spectra. An x-ray scintillator was included to measure bremsstrahlung x-rays produced by energetic electrons impacting the upper atmosphere; however, these were found to make a negligible contribution to the energy deposition during this particular HRE event. Hence, the energy deposition produced by the highly relativistic electrons dominated within the mesosphere and was used exclusively to infer changes in the middle atmospheric minor constituent abundances. By employing a two-dimensional photochemical model developed for this region at Goddard Space Fight Center, it has been found that for this event, peak modifications in the neutral minor species occurred near 80 km. A maximum enhancement for OH was calculated to be over 40% at the latitude of the launch site, which in turn induced a maximum depletion of O3 in excess of 30%. Since this particular HRE occurred near solar maximum, it was of modest intensity and spectral hardness, parameters which could grow significantly as solar minimum is approached. Estimates of mesospheric OH enhancement and O3 depletion have also been made for more intense HRE events, as might be expected during the declining phase of the solar cycle. The findings imply that the energy deposition from highly relativistic electrons during more intense HREs could modulate the concentration of important minor species within the mesosphere to much higher levels than estimated for the observed HRE. By causing O3 destruction, the electron precipitation can also modify the penetration depth of solar UV radiation, which may affect thermal properties of the mesosphere to depths approaching 60 km.

Quiet-time 0.04 - 2 MeV/nucleon Ions at 1 AU in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeldovich, M. A.; Logachev, Y. I.; Kecskeméty, K.

2018-01-01

The fluxes of 3He, 4He, C, O, and Fe ions at low energies (about 0.04 - 2 MeV/nucleon) are studied during quiet periods in Solar Cycles (SC) 23 and 24 using data from the ULEIS/ACE instrument. In selecting quiet periods (the definition is given in Section 2.1), additional data from EPHIN/SOHO and EPAM/ACE were also used. The analysis of the ion energy spectra and their relative abundances shows that their behavior is governed by their first-ionization potential. Substantial differences in the ion energy spectra in two consecutive solar cycles are observed during the quiet periods selected. Quiet-time fluxes are divided into three distinct types according to the {˜} 80 - 320 keV/nucleon Fe/O ratio. Our results confirm the earlier observation that these types of suprathermal particles have different origins, that is, they represent different seed populations that are accelerated by different processes. Except for the solar activity minimum, the Fe/O ratio during quiet-time periods correspond either to the abundances of ions in particle fluxes accelerated in impulsive solar flares or to the mean abundances of elements in the solar corona. At the activity minimum, this ratio takes on values that are characteristic for the solar wind. These results indicate that the background fluxes of low-energy particles in the ascending, maximum, and decay phases of the solar cycle include significant contributions from both coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies and ions accelerated in small impulsive solar flares rich in Fe, while the contribution of remnants from earlier SEP events cannot be excluded. The comparison of suprathermal ion abundances during the first five years of SC 23 and SC 24 suggests that the quiet-time and non-quiet fluxes of Fe and 3He were lower in SC 24.

Statistical analysis of geomagnetic field variations during solar eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung-Hee; Chang, Heon-Young

2018-04-01

We investigate the geomagnetic field variations recorded by INTERMAGNET geomagnetic observatories, which are observed while the Moon's umbra or penumbra passed over them during a solar eclipse event. Though it is generally considered that the geomagnetic field can be modulated during solar eclipses, the effect of the solar eclipse on the observed geomagnetic field has proved subtle to be detected. Instead of exploring the geomagnetic field as a case study, we analyze 207 geomagnetic manifestations acquired by 100 geomagnetic observatories during 39 solar eclipses occurring from 1991 to 2016. As a result of examining a pattern of the geomagnetic field variation on average, we confirm that the effect can be seen over an interval of 180 min centered at the time of maximum eclipse on a site of a geomagnetic observatory. That is, demonstrate an increase in the Y component of the geomagnetic field and decreases in the X component and the total strength of the geomagnetic field. We also find that the effect can be overwhelmed, depending more sensitively on the level of daily geomagnetic events than on the level of solar activity and/or the phase of solar cycle. We have demonstrated it by dividing the whole data set into subsets based on parameters of the geomagnetic field, solar activity, and solar eclipses. It is suggested, therefore, that an evidence of the solar eclipse effect can be revealed even at the solar maximum, as long as the day of the solar eclipse is magnetically quiet.

Dynamic analysis of concentrated solar supercritical CO2-based power generation closed-loop cycle

DOE PAGES

Osorio, Julian D.; Hovsapian, Rob; Ordonez, Juan C.

2016-01-01

Here, the dynamic behavior of a concentrated solar power (CSP) supercritical CO 2 cycle is studied under different seasonal conditions. The system analyzed is composed of a central receiver, hot and cold thermal energy storage units, a heat exchanger, a recuperator, and multi-stage compression-expansion subsystems with intercoolers and reheaters between compressors and turbines respectively. Energy models for each component of the system are developed in order to optimize operating and design parameters such as mass flow rate, intermediate pressures and the effective area of the recuperator to lead to maximum efficiency. Our results show that the parametric optimization leads themore » system to a process efficiency of about 21 % and a maximum power output close to 1.5 MW. The thermal energy storage allows the system to operate for several hours after sunset. This operating time is approximately increased from 220 to 480 minutes after optimization. The hot and cold thermal energy storage also lessens the temperature fluctuations by providing smooth changes of temperatures at the turbines and compressors inlets. Our results indicate that concentrated solar systems using supercritical CO 2 could be a viable alternative to satisfying energy needs in desert areas with scarce water and fossil fuel resources.« less

Recent Studies of the Behavior of the Sun's White-Light Corona Over Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, O. C.; Young, D. E.; Pesnell, W. D.; Lecinski, A.; Eddy, J.

2008-01-01

Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.

Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, manifesting in the extratropical northern atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitnov, S. A.

2009-01-01

Using the longest and most reliable ozonesonde data sets grouped for four regions (Japan, Europe, as well as temperate and polar latitudes of Canada) the comparative analysis of regional responses of ozone, temperature, horizontal wind, tropopause and surface pressure on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO effects), manifesting in opposite phases of the 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) was carried out. The impact of solar cycle is found to be the strongest at the Canadian Arctic, near one of two climatological centres of polar vortex, where in solar maximum conditions the QBO signals in ozone and temperature have much larger amplitudes, embrace greater range of heights, and are maximized much higher than those in solar minimum conditions. The strengthening of the temperature QBO effect during solar maxima can explain why correlation between the 11-yr SC and polar winter stratospheric temperature is reversed in the opposite QBO phases. At the border of polar vortex the 11-yr SC also modulates the QBO effect in zonal wind, strengthening the quasi-biennial modulation of polar vortex during solar maxima that is associated with strong negative correlation between stratospheric QBO signals in zonal wind and temperature. Above Japan the QBO effects of ozone, temperature, and zonal wind, manifesting in solar maxima reveal the downward phase dynamics, reminding similar feature of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere. Above Europe, the QBO effects in solar maxima reveal more similarity with those above Japan, while in solar minima with the effects obtained at the Canadian middle-latitude stations. It is revealed that the 11-yr SC influences regional QBO effects in tropopause height, tropopause temperature and surface pressure. The influence most distinctly manifest itself in tropopause characteristics above Japan. The results of the accompanying analysis of the QBO reference time series testify that in the period of 1965-2006 above 50-hPa level the duration of the QBO cycle in solar maxima is 1-3 months longer than in solar minima. The differences are more distinct at higher levels, but they are diminished with lengthening of the period.

Distribution of activity at the solar active longitudes between 1979 - 2011 in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A.

The solar active longitudes were studied in the northern hemisphere in cycles 22 and 23 by using data of DPD sunspot catalogue. The active longitudes are not fixed in the Carrington system, they have a well recognizable migration path between the descending phase of cycle 21 (from about 1984) and ascending phase of cycle 23 (until about 1996), out of this interval the migration path is ambiguous. The longitudinal distribution on both sides of the path has been computed and averaged for the length of the path. The so-called flip-flop phenomenon, when the activity temporarily gets to the opposite longitude, can also be recognized. The widths of the active domains are fairly narrow in the increasing and decaying phases of cycle 22, their half widths are about 20°-30° for both the main and secondary active belts but it is more flat and stretched around the maximum with a half width of about 60°.

Relationship of The Tropical Cyclogenesis With Solar and Magnetospheric Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnevsky, O. V.; Pankov, V. M.; Erokhine, N. S.

Formation of tropical cyclones is a badly studied period in their life cycle even though there are many papers dedicated to analysis of influence of different parameters upon cyclones occurrence frequency (see e.g., Gray W.M.). Present paper is dedicated to study of correlation of solar and magnetospheric activity with the appearance of tropical cyclones in north-west region of Pacific ocean. Study of correlation was performed by using both classical statistical methods (including maximum entropy method) and quite modern ones, for example multifractal analysis. Information about Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity in period of 1944-2000 was received from different Internet databases. It was shown that power spectra maximums of Wolf's numbers and appeared tropical cyclones ones corresponds to 11-year period; solar activity and cyclogenesis processes intensity are in antiphase; maximum of mutual correlation coefficient (~ 0.8) between Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity is in South-China sea. There is a relation of multifractal characteristics calculated for both time series with the mutual correlation function that is another indicator of correlation between tropical cyclogenesis and solar-magnetospheric activity. So, there is the correlation between solar-magnetospheric activity and tropical cyclone intensity in this region. Possible physical mechanisms of such correlation including anomalous precipitations charged particles from the Earth radiation belts and wind intensity amplification in the troposphere are discussed.

Relationship of The Tropical Cyclogenesis With Solar and Magnetospheric Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnevsky, O.; Pankov, V.; Erokhine, N.

Formation of tropical cyclones is a badly studied period in their life cycle even though there are many papers dedicated to analysis of influence of different parameters upon cyclones occurrence frequency (see e.g., Gray W.M.). Present paper is dedicated to study of correlation of solar and magnetospheric activity with the appearance of tropi- cal cyclones in north-west region of Pacific ocean. Study of correlation was performed by using both classical statistical methods (including maximum entropy method) and quite modern ones, for example multifractal analysis. Information about Wolf's num- bers and cyclogenesis intensity in period of 1944-2000 was received from different Internet databases. It was shown that power spectra maximums of Wolf's numbers and appeared tropical cyclones ones corresponds to 11-year period; solar activity and cyclogenesis processes intensity are in antiphase; maximum of mutual correlation co- efficient ( 0.8) between Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity is in South-China sea. There is a relation of multifractal characteristics calculated for both time series with the mutual correlation function that is another indicator of correlation between tropical cyclogenesis and solar-magnetospheric activity. So, there is the correlation between solar-magnetospheric activity and tropical cyclone intensity in this region. Possible physical mechanisms of such correlation including anomalous precipitations charged particles from the Earth radiation belts and wind intensity amplification in the troposphere are discussed.

The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik

2015-01-16

We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many ofmore » the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.« less

Correlation of the earth's rotation rate and the secular change of the geomagnetic field. [power spectra/harmonic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, R. S.

1975-01-01

Power spectral density analysis using Burg's maximum entropy method was applied to the geomagnetic dipole field and its rate of change for the years 1901 to 1969. Both spectra indicate relative maxima at 0.015 cycles/year and its harmonics. These maxima correspond approximately to 66, 33, 22, 17, 13, 11, and 9-year spectral lines. The application of the same analysis techniques to the length-of-day (l.o.d) fluctuations for the period 1865 to 1961 reveal similar spectral characteristics. Although peaks were observed at higher harmonics of the fundamental frequency, the 22-year and 11-year lines are not attributed unambiguously to the solar magnetic cycle and the solar cycle. It is suggested that the similarity in the l.o.d fluctuations and the dipole field variations is related to the motion within the earth's fluid core during the past one hundred years.

VARIATIONS IN SOLAR WIND FRACTIONATION AS SEEN BY ACE/SWICS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GENESIS MISSION RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilleri, P.; Wiens, R. C.; Reisenfeld, D. B.

We use Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) elemental composition data to compare the variations in solar wind (SW) fractionation as measured by SWICS during the last solar maximum (1999–2001), the solar minimum (2006–2009), and the period in which the Genesis spacecraft was collecting SW (late 2001—early 2004). We differentiate our analysis in terms of SW regimes (i.e., originating from interstream or coronal hole flows, or coronal mass ejecta). Abundances are normalized to the low-first ionization potential (low-FIP) ion magnesium to uncover correlations that are not apparent when normalizing to high-FIP ions. We find that relative tomore » magnesium, the other low-FIP elements are measurably fractionated, but the degree of fractionation does not vary significantly over the solar cycle. For the high-FIP ions, variation in fractionation over the solar cycle is significant: greatest for Ne/Mg and C/Mg, less so for O/Mg, and the least for He/Mg. When abundance ratios are examined as a function of SW speed, we find a strong correlation, with the remarkable observation that the degree of fractionation follows a mass-dependent trend. We discuss the implications for correcting the Genesis sample return results to photospheric abundances.« less

COMPARISON OF CORONAL EXTRAPOLATION METHODS FOR CYCLE 24 USING HMI DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arden, William M.; Norton, Aimee A.; Sun, Xudong

2016-05-20

Two extrapolation models of the solar coronal magnetic field are compared using magnetogram data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument. The two models, a horizontal current–current sheet–source surface (HCCSSS) model and a potential field–source surface (PFSS) model, differ in their treatment of coronal currents. Each model has its own critical variable, respectively, the radius of a cusp surface and a source surface, and it is found that adjusting these heights over the period studied allows for a better fit between the models and the solar open flux at 1 au as calculated from the Interplanetary Magneticmore » Field (IMF). The HCCSSS model provides the better fit for the overall period from 2010 November to 2015 May as well as for two subsets of the period: the minimum/rising part of the solar cycle and the recently identified peak in the IMF from mid-2014 to mid-2015 just after solar maximum. It is found that an HCCSSS cusp surface height of 1.7 R {sub ⊙} provides the best fit to the IMF for the overall period, while 1.7 and 1.9 R {sub ⊙} give the best fits for the two subsets. The corresponding values for the PFSS source surface height are 2.1, 2.2, and 2.0 R {sub ⊙} respectively. This means that the HCCSSS cusp surface rises as the solar cycle progresses while the PFSS source surface falls.« less

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Jupiter's Mid-Infrared Aurora: Solar Connection and Minor Constituents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Theodore; Livengood, T.A.; Fast, K.E.; Hewagama, T.; Schmilling, F.; Sonnabend, G.; Delgado, J.

2009-01-01

High spectral resolution in the 12 pin region of the polar regions of Jupiter reveal unique information on auroral phenomena and upper stratospheric composition. Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate; throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X-ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based. spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane, emission brightness and solar 10.7-cm radar flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high scalar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. The spectra measured contain features that cannot be attributed to ethane and are most likely spectra of minor constituents whose molecular bands overlap the v9 band of ethane. Possible candidates are allene, propane, and other higher order hydrocarbons. These features appear to be enhanced in the active polar regions. Laboratory measurements at comparable spectral resolution of spectra of candidate molecules will be used to identify the constituents. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the NASA/ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission.

The area and absolute magnetic flux of sunspots over the past 400 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagovitsyn, Yu. A.; Tlatov, A. G.; Nagovitsyna, E. Yu.

2016-09-01

A new series of yearly-mean relative sunspot numbers SN 2 that has been extrapolated into the past (to 1610) is presented. The Kislovodsk series with the scale factor b = 1.0094 ± 0.0059 represents a reasonable continuation of the mean-monthly and mean-yearly total sunspot areas of the Greenwich series after 1976. The second maximum of the 24th solar-activity cycle was not anomalously low, and was no lower than 6 of the past 13 cycles. A series A 2 of values for the total sunspot area in 1610-2015 has been constructed, and is complementary to new versions of the series of the relative number of sunspots SN 2 and the number of sunspot groups GN 2. When needed, this series can be reduced to yield a quantity having a clear physical meaning—the spot absolute magnetic flux Φ Σ( t)[Mx] = 2.16 × 1019 A( t) [mvh]. The maximum sunspot area during the Maunder minimum is much higher in the new series compared to the previous version. This at least partially supports the validity of arguments that cast doubt on the anomalously low ampltude of the solar cycles during the Maunder minimum that has been assumed by many researchers earlier.

Solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency at the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, Marius M.

2015-04-01

We report on the analysis of turbulence properties of the solar wind and the planetary magnetosheaths of Venus and Earth at solar maximum (2000-2001) and minimum (1997-1998, 2007-2008) as revealed by Ulysses, Cluster and Venus Express. We provide an overview of the spectral and scaling properties of turbulence during the targeted time periods. A selection of Ulysses data reveals the spectral properties of the "pure" slow and "pure" fast solar wind turbulence, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. Venus Express and Cluster data contribute to the description of the solar wind turbulence at 0.72 AU and respectively 1 AU. The spectral analysis of magnetosheath data from Venus Express and Cluster reveals the properties of turbulence to be compared to solar wind turbulence. The statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with intermittency revealed as non-Gaussian Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) and scale dependent kurtosis. PDFs are computed for the solar wind data from Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, and complement the analysis based on second order corrrelation function. The same strategy is applied to study the intermittency of the magnetosheath turbulence of Venus and the Earth. The results of our thorough survey of data bases are organized in catalogues available on line: PSD and PDFs results are stored in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosheath, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetosheaths). As an example of higher order analysis resulting from these results we discuss the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence and intermittency. We also discuss how the exploitation of data bases produced by the FP7 project STORM contribute to developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a national grant CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Global correlation between surface heat fluxes and insolation in the 11-year solar cycle: The latitudinal effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2014-12-01

Because of the small amplitude of insolation variations (1365.2-1366.6 W m-2 or 0.1%) from the 11-year solar cycle minimum to the cycle maximum and the structural complexity of the climatic dynamics, it is difficult to directly observe a solar signal in the surface temperature. The main difficulty is reduced to two factors: (1) a delay in the temperature response to external action due to thermal inertia, and (2) powerful internal fluctuations of the climatic dynamics suppressing the solar-driven component. In this work we take into account the first factor, solving the inverse problem of thermal conductivity in order to calculate the vertical heat flux from the measured temperature near the Earth's surface. The main model parameter—apparent thermal inertia—is calculated from the local seasonal extremums of temperature and albedo. We level the second factor by averaging mean annual heat fluxes in a latitudinal belt. The obtained mean heat fluxes significantly correlate with a difference between the insolation and optical depth of volcanic aerosol in the atmosphere, converted into a hindered heat flux. The calculated correlation smoothly increases with increasing latitude to 0.4-0.6, and the revealed latitudinal dependence is explained by the known effect of polar amplification.

Semi-annual Sq-variation in solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogrebnoy, V.; Malosiev, T.

The peculiarities of semi-annual variation in solar activity cycle have been studied. The data from observatories having long observational series and located in different latitude zones were used. The following observatories were selected: Huancayo (magnetic equator), from 1922 to 1959; Apia (low latitudes), from 1912 to 1961; Moscow (middle latitudes), from 1947 to 1965. Based on the hourly values of H-components, the average monthly diurnal amplitudes (a difference between midday and midnight values), according to five international quiet days, were computed. Obtained results were compared with R (relative sunspot numbers) in the ranges of 0-30R, 40-100R, and 140-190R. It was shown, that the amplitude of semi-annual variation increases with R, from minimum to maximum values, on average by 45%. At equatorial Huancayo observatory, the semi-annual Sq(H)-variation appears especially clearly: its maximums take place at periods of equinoxes (March-April, September-October), and minimums -- at periods of solstices (June-July, December-January). At low (Apia observatory) and middle (Moscow observatory) latitudes, the character of semi-annual variation is somewhat different: it appears during the periods of equinoxes, but considerably less than at equator. Besides, with the growth of R, semi-annual variation appears against a background of annual variation, in the form of second peaks (maximum in June). At observatories located in low and middle latitudes, second peaks become more appreciable with an increase of R (March-April and September-October). During the periods of low solar activity, they are insignificant. This work has been carried out with the support from International Scientific and Technology Center (Project #KR-214).

Statistical study of the correlation of hard X-ray and type 3 radio bursts in solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Russell J.; Petrosian, Vahe

1989-01-01

A large number of hard X-ray events which were recorded by the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) during the maximum of the 21st solar cycle (circa 1980) are analyzed in order to study their statistical correlation with type 3 bursts. The earlier finding by Kane (1981) are confirmed qualitatively that flares with stronger hard X-ray emission, especially those with harder spectra, are more likely to produce a type 3 burst. The observed distribution of hard X-ray and type 3 events and their correlations are shown to be satisfactorily described by a bivariate distribution consistent with the assumption of statistical linear dependence of X-ray and radio burst intensities. From this analysis it was determined that the distribution of the ratio of X-ray intensity (in counts/s) to type 3 intensity (in solar flux units) which has a wide range and a typical value for this ratio of about 10. The implications of the results for impulsive phase models are discussed.

Fluid absorption solar energy receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bair, Edward J.

1993-01-01

A conventional solar dynamic system transmits solar energy to the flowing fluid of a thermodynamic cycle through structures which contain the gas and thermal energy storage material. Such a heat transfer mechanism dictates that the structure operate at a higher temperature than the fluid. This investigation reports on a fluid absorption receiver where only a part of the solar energy is transmitted to the structure. The other part is absorbed directly by the fluid. By proportioning these two heat transfer paths the energy to the structure can preheat the fluid, while the energy absorbed directly by the fluid raises the fluid to its final working temperature. The surface temperatures need not exceed the output temperature of the fluid. This makes the output temperature of the gas the maximum temperature in the system. The gas can have local maximum temperatures higher than the output working temperature. However local high temperatures are quickly equilibrated, and since the gas does not emit radiation, local high temperatures do not result in a radiative heat loss. Thermal radiation, thermal conductivity, and heat exchange with the gas all help equilibrate the surface temperature.

A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. II. Reference Dynamo Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-01-01

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

A 15 kWe (nominal) solar thermal-electric power conversion concept definition study: Steam Rankin reciprocator system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingenback, W.; Carter, J., Jr.

1979-01-01

A conceptual design of a 3600 rpm reciprocation expander was developed for maximum thermal input power of 80 kW. The conceptual design covered two engine configurations; a single cylinder design for simple cycle operation and a two cylinder design for reheat cycle operation. The reheat expander contains a high pressure cylinder and a low pressure cylinder with steam being reheated to the initial inlet temperature after expansion in the high pressure cylinder. Power generation is accomplished with a three-phase induction motor coupled directly to the expander and connected electrically to the public utility power grid. The expander, generator, water pump and control system weigh 297 kg and are dish mounted. The steam condenser, water tank and accessory pumps are ground based. Maximum heat engine efficiency is 33 percent: maximum power conversion efficiency is 30 percent. Total cost is $3,307 or $138 per kW of maximum output power.

International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS), "Solar Energy Flux Study: from the interior to the outer layer" — Working Group 1 report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pap, Judit; Fröhlich, Claus

The purpose of this report is to describe the research activities and plans of Working Group 1: "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" of the International Solar Cycle Study (ISCS), which is an international research organization operating under the auspices of the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). As part of the report, we also summarize the status of the measurements and results on the solar energy flux variations. The main objective of ISCS's Working Group 1 is to coordinate and support comprehensive international research of the variations in the solar energy flux during the rising portion and maximum of solar cycle 23. The research activities of ISCS's Working Group 1 will concentrate on the following tasks: (1) to measure and study the variations in the solar radiative and mass output and solar activity indices during the solar activity cycle, (2) to understand why the solar radiative and mass output and the solar activity indices vary during the solar cycle, and (3) to study the role of solar variability in solar-terrestrial changes and its contribution to global change. ISCS WG1 "Solar Energy Flux Study: From the Interior to the Outer Layer" has been divided into three panels: •| Panel 1: Variations in Total and Spectral Irradiance from Infrared to Far UV. Panel leaders: Martin Anklin of the Physikalisch-Meteorologishes Observatorium Davos, Switzerland (total irradiance), Gerard Thuillier of the Service d'Aeronomie-CNRS, Verrieres, France (visible and infrared), and Linton Floyd of the Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, USA (ultraviolet). •| Panel 2: Variations in EUV, X-ray and Particle Fluxes. Panel leaders: Gerhard Schmidtke of Fraunhofer IPM, Freiburg, Germany and W. Kent Tobiska of FDC/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA (EUV/XUV), and David Winningham of the Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, USA (particles). •| Panel 3: Solar Indices, Cosmogenic Isotopes, Solar-Stellar Relations. Panel leaders: Gary Chapman of the San Fernando Observatory, CSUN, Northridge, CA, USA (solar indices), Juerg Beer of Institute for Environmental Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland (cosmogenic isotopes), and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA (solar-stellar relations). The first two panels concentrate on solar energy flux measurements, whereas the third panel concentrates on solar indices and alternative ways to model and predict irradiance variations at various wavelengths and their terrestrial/climate effects. Working Group 1 of ISCS has supported and adopted the "Thermospheric-Ionospheric Geospheric Research (TIGER)" program as part of ISCS/WG1/Panel 2. The main objectives of TIGER are to measure, model, and interpret solar EUV/UV and particle fluxes and to study and model their effect on the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere (see details by Schmidtke et al., 2001, this volume). This approach links ISCS/WG1 activities directly with studies of our space environment.

Evidence of solar activity and El Niño signals in tree rings of Araucaria araucana and A. angustifolia in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perone, A.; Lombardi, F.; Marchetti, M.; Tognetti, R.; Lasserre, B.

2016-10-01

Tree rings reveal climatic variations through years, but also the effect of solar activity in influencing the climate on a large scale. In order to investigate the role of solar cycles on climatic variability and to analyse their influences on tree growth, we focused on tree-ring chronologies of Araucaria angustifolia and Araucaria araucana in four study areas: Irati and Curitiba in Brazil, Caviahue in Chile, and Tolhuaca in Argentina. We obtained an average tree-ring chronology of 218, 117, 439, and 849 years for these areas, respectively. Particularly, the older chronologies also included the period of the Maunder and Dalton minima. To identify periodicities and trends observable in tree growth, the time series were analysed using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet techniques. Analysis based on the Multitaper method of annual growth rates identified 2 cycles with periodicities of 11 (Schwebe cycle) and 5.5 years (second harmonic of Schwebe cycle). In the Chilean and Argentinian sites, significant agreement between the time series of tree rings and the 11-year solar cycle was found during the periods of maximum solar activity. Results also showed oscillation with periods of 2-7 years, probably induced by local environmental variations, and possibly also related to the El-Niño events. Moreover, the Morlet complex wavelet analysis was applied to study the most relevant variability factors affecting tree-ring time series. Finally, we applied the cross-wavelet spectral analysis to evaluate the time lags between tree-ring and sunspot-number time series, as well as for the interaction between tree rings, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and temperature and precipitation. Trees sampled in Chile and Argentina showed more evident responses of fluctuations in tree-ring time series to the variations of short and long periodicities in comparison with the Brazilian ones. These results provided new evidence on the solar activity-climate pattern-tree ring connections over centuries.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidalmore » variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.« less

Seasonal and solar cycle dependence of F3-layer near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagundes, P. R.; Klausner, V.; Bittencourt, J. A.; Sahai, Y.; Abalde, J. R.

2011-08-01

The occurrence of an additional F3-layer has been reported at Brazilian, Indian and Asian sectors by several investigators. In this paper, we report for the first time the seasonal variations of F3-layer carried out near the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) at São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.0°W; dip latitude 17.6°S - Brazil) as a function of solar cycle. The period from September 2000 to August 2001 is used as representative of high solar activity (HSA) and the period from January 2006 to December 2006 as representative of low solar activity (LSA). This investigation shows that during HSA there is a maximum occurrence of F3-layer during summer time and a minimum during winter time. However, during LSA, there is no seasonal variation in the F3-layer occurrence. Also, the frequency of occurrence of the F3-layer during HSA is 11 times more than during LSA.

An ISEE/Whistler model of equatorial electron density in the magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, D. L.; Anderson, R. R.

1992-01-01

Attention is given to an empirical model of equatorial electron density in the magnetosphere covering the L range 2.25-8. Although the model is primarily intended for application to the local time interval 00-15 MLT, a way to extend the model to the 15-24-MLT period is presented. The model describes, in piecewise fashion, the 'saturated' plasmasphere, the region of steep plasmapause gradients, and the plasma trough. Within the plasmasphere the model profile can be expressed as logne - Sigma-xi, where x1 = -0.3145L + 3.9043 is the principal or 'reference' term, and additional terms account for: a solar cycle variation with a peak at solar maximum; an annual variation with a December maximum; and a semiannual variation with equinoctial maxima.

Solar thermal power & gas turbine hybrid design with molten salt storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín, Fernando; Wiesenberg, Ralf; Santana, Domingo

2017-06-01

Taking into consideration the need to decelerate the global climatic change, power generation has to shift from burning fossil fuel to renewable energy source in short medium period of time. In this work, we are presenting a new model of a solar-gas natural hybrid power cycle with the main aim of decoupling the solar generation system from the gas turbine system. The objective is to have high solar power contribution compared to conventional ISCC plants [2], producing firm and dispatchable electricity at the same time. The decoupling is motivated by the low solar contribution reached by the ISCC, which is technically limited to maximum of 15%, [4]. In our case, we have implemented a solar tower with molten salts as working fluid. Central receiver systems get higher performance than others systems, like parabolic trough technology [1], due to the higher temperature achieved in the heat transferred fluid HTF, close to 560°C.

THE ORIGIN OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY IN THE SUNS OF M67

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiners, A.; Giampapa, M. S., E-mail: Ansgar.Reiners@phys.uni-goettingen.d, E-mail: giampapa@noao.ed

2009-12-10

We report the results of the analysis of high-resolution photospheric line spectra obtained with the UVES instrument on the VLT for a sample of 15 solar-type stars selected from a recent survey of the distribution of H and K chromospheric line strengths in the solar-age open cluster M67. We find upper limits to the projected rotation velocities that are consistent with solar-like rotation (i.e., v sin iapprox< 2-3 km s{sup -1}) for objects with Ca II chromospheric activity within the range of the contemporary solar cycle. Two solar-type stars in our sample exhibit chromospheric emission well in excess of evenmore » solar maximum values. In one case, Sanders 1452, we measure a minimum rotational velocity of v sin i = 4 +- 0.5 km s{sup -1}, or over twice the solar equatorial rotational velocity. The other star with enhanced activity, Sanders 747, is a spectroscopic binary. We conclude that high activity in solar-type stars in M67 that exceeds solar levels is likely due to more rapid rotation rather than an excursion in solar-like activity cycles to unusually high levels. We estimate an upper limit of 0.2% for the range of brightness changes occurring as a result of chromospheric activity in solar-type stars and, by inference, in the Sun itself. We discuss possible implications for our understanding of angular momentum evolution in solar-type stars, and we tentatively attribute the rapid rotation in Sanders 1452 to a reduced braking efficiency.« less

Ionospheric Scintillation Activity Over Ilorin, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oladipo, O. A.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Doherty, P. H.; Radicella, S. M.; Adimula, I. A.; Olawepo, A. O.

2018-02-01

Scintillation of radio waves in the L-band frequency is a regular occurrence at the equatorial and auroral regions at night most especially during high solar activity periods. Scintillation is caused by plasma density irregularities, and this could cause loss of lock of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals leading to impairment of the applications that rely on this system. A study on the occurrence of scintillation activity over Ilorin (latitude = 8.48°N, longitude = 4.67°W, and geomagnetic latitude = 1.89°S), Nigeria was done using S4 index data from NovAtel GPStation-2 receiver (2009-2012) and NovAtel GPStation-6 receiver (August 2013 to December 2016) which are both located at this station. The solar maximum period of the solar cycle 24 is located well within the period of this investigation; hence, this study provides opportunity to see the occurrence pattern of scintillation during different seasons as well as the pattern from low solar activity to solar maximum. The results obtained showed that scintillation occurs between 21:00 LT and 04:00 LT at the peak of the occurrence in 2014. The time window of occurrence decreases with decrease in solar activity. Similarly, scintillation activity was observed to be more regular during high solar activity and it has two peaks of occurrence in March and October. A solar activity trend was observed in scintillation occurrence; scintillation activity increases with increase in the level of solar activity.

Long- and Mid-Term Variations of the Soft X-ray Flare Type in Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chertok, I. M.; Belov, A. V.

2017-10-01

Using data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) spacecraft in the 1 - 8 Å wavelength range for Solar Cycles 23, 24, and part of Cycles 21 and 22, we compare mean temporal parameters (rise and decay times, and duration) and the proportion of impulsive short-duration events (SDE) and gradual long-duration events (LDE) among C- and ≥ M1.0-class flares. It is found that the fraction of the SDE ≥ M1.0-class flares (including spikes) in Cycle 24 exceeds that in Cycle 23 in all three temporal parameters at the maximum phase and in the decay time during the ascending cycle phase. However, Cycles 23 and 24 barely differ in the fraction of the SDE C-class flares. The temporal parameters of SDEs, their fraction, and consequently the relationship between the SDE and LDE flares do not remain constant, but reveal regular changes within individual cycles and during the transition from one cycle to another. In all phases of all four cycles, these changes have the character of pronounced, large-amplitude "quasi-biennial" oscillations (QBOs). In different cycles and at the separate phases of individual cycles, such QBOs are superimposed on various systematic trends displayed by the analyzed temporal flare parameters. In Cycle 24, the fraction of the SDE ≥ M1.0-class flares from the N- and S-hemispheres displays the most pronounced synchronous QBOs. The QBO amplitude and general variability of the intense ≥ M1.0-class flares almost always markedly exceeds those of the moderate C-class flares. The ordered quantitative and qualitative variations of the flare type revealed in the course of the solar cycles are discussed within the framework of the concept that the SDE flares are associated mainly with small sunspots (including those in developed active regions) and that small and large sunspots behave differently during cycles and form two distinct populations.

Ionospheric scintillation effects on single frequency GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenburgh, R. A.; Smithtro, C. G.; Groves, K. M.

2008-04-01

Ionospheric scintillation of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals threatens navigation and military operations by degrading performance or making GPS unavailable. Scintillation is particularly active within, although not limited to, a belt encircling the Earth within 20 degrees of the geomagnetic equator. As GPS applications and users increase, so does the potential for degraded precision and availability from scintillation. We examined amplitude scintillation data spanning 7 years from Ascension Island, U.K.; Ancon, Peru; and Antofagasta, Chile in the Atlantic/American longitudinal sector as well as data from Parepare, Indonesia; Marak Parak, Malaysia; Pontianak, Indonesia; Guam; and Diego Garcia, U.K. in the Pacific longitudinal sector. From these data, we calculate percent probability of occurrence of scintillation at various intensities described by the S4 index. Additionally, we determine Dilution of Precision at 1 min resolution. We examine diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle characteristics and make spatial comparisons. In general, activity was greatest during the equinoxes and solar maximum, although scintillation at Antofagasta, Chile was higher during 1998 rather than at solar maximum.

Ionospheric Scintillation Effects on GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenburgh, R. A.; Smithtro, C.; Groves, K.

2007-12-01

. Ionospheric scintillation of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals threatens navigation and military operations by degrading performance or making GPS unavailable. Scintillation is particularly active, although not limited to, a belt encircling the earth within 20 degrees of the geomagnetic equator. As GPS applications and users increases, so does the potential for detrimental impacts from scintillation. We examined amplitude scintillation data spanning seven years from Ascension Island, U.K.; Ancon, Peru; and Antofagasta, Chile in the Atlantic/Americas longitudinal sector at as well as data from Parepare, Indonesia; Marak Parak, Malaysia; Pontianak, Indonesia; Guam; and Diego Garcia, U.K.; in the Pacific longitudinal sector. From these data, we calculate percent probability of occurrence of scintillation at various intensities described by the S4 index. Additionally, we determine Dilution of Precision at one minute resolution. We examine diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle characteristics and make spatial comparisons. In general, activity was greatest during the equinoxes and solar maximum, although scintillation at Antofagasta, Chile was higher during 1998 rather than at solar maximum.

Witnessing Solar Rejuvenation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2015-09-01

At the end of last year, the Suns large-scale magnetic field suddenly strengthened, reaching its highest value in over two decades. Here, Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang (both of the Naval Research Laboratory) propose an explanation for why this happened and what it predicts for the next solar cycle.Magnetic StrengtheningUntil midway through 2014, solar cycle 24 the current solar cycle was remarkably quiet. Even at its peak, it averaged only 79 sunspots per year, compared to maximums of up to 190 in recent cycles. Thus it was rather surprising when, toward the end of 2014, the Suns large-scale magnetic field underwent a sudden rejuvenation, with its mean field leaping up to its highest values since 1991 and causing unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops to collapse inward.Yet in spite of the increase we observed in the Suns open flux (the magnetic flux leaving the Suns atmosphere, measured from Earth), there was not a significant increase in solar activity, as indicated by sunspot number and the rate of coronal mass ejections. This means that the number of sources of magnetic flux didnt increase so Sheeley and Wang conclude that flux must instead have been emerging from those sources in a more efficient way! But how?Aligned ActivityWSO open flux and the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (measures of the magnetic flux leaving the Suns photosphere and heliosphere, respectively), compared to sunspot number (in units of 100 sunspots). A sudden increase in flux is visible after the peak of each of the last four sunspot cycles. Click for a larger view! [Sheeley Wang 2015]The authors show that the active regions on the solar surface in late 2014 lined up in such a way that the emerging flux was enhanced, forming a strong equatorial dipole field that accounts for the sudden rejuvenation observed.Interestingly, this rejuvenation of the Suns open flux wasnt just a one-time thing; similar bursts have occurred shortly after the peak of every sunspot cycle that we have flux measurements for. The authors find that three factors (how the active regions are distributed longitudinally, their sizes, and the contribution of the axisymmetric component of the magnetic field) determine the strength of this rejuvenation. All three of these factors happened to contribute optimally in 2014.As a final note, Sheeley and Wang suggest that the current strength of the axisymmetric component of the magnetic field can be used to provide an early indication of how active the next solar cycle might be. Using this method, they predict that solar cycle 25 will be similar to the current cycle in amplitude.CitationN. R. Sheeley Jr. and Y.-M. Wang2015 ApJ 809 113. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/809/2/113

Study of large Forbush decreases in cosmic-ray intensity observed during solar cycle 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Anand; Badruddin, B.

2016-07-01

Neutron monitors at different geomagnetic latitude and longitude of Earth measure the cosmic-ray intensity with high precision. Sudden decreases in cosmic-ray intensity within few hours and slow recovery to pre-decrease level within a few days (Forbush decreases) are observed in neutron monitor data. We identify large-amplitude Forbush decreases (FDs), using high counting rate neutron monitor data, that occurred during previous solar cycle 23 (1995-2009) and current solar cycle 24 (2010-2015). We then search for the solar sources and the interplanetary structures responsible for these decreases. We attempt to find the relative importance of various interplanetary plasma and field parameters and the physical mechanism(s) responsible for FDs of varying amplitudes. We analyze a number of interplanetary plasma and field parameters, during both the phases (main and recovery) of FDs. The interplanetary plasma and field data analyzed in this study are the solar-wind velocity, the interplanetary magnetic field, its fluctuations, interplanetary electric field and the time variation of interplanetary electric potential. For monitoring the changes in interplanetary plasma/field conditions during the development of FDs, we also utilize plasma density, temperature and plasma beta, dynamic pressure and Mach number during the passage of interplanetary structures responsible for FDs. In addition to their amplitude, we study the recovery of FDs in detail after determining the time constant during their recovery by exponential fit to the data. As the solar magnetic polarity reversed during the maximum phase of solar cycle 23 (in the year 2000), we study the differences in amplitude, time constant of recovery and plasma/field condition to search for the polarity dependent effects, if any, on the amplitude and recovery of FDs due to implication for the models suggested to explain the Forbush decrease phenomena. The implications of these results are discussed.

The mean coronal magnetic field determined from Helios Faraday rotation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patzold, M.; Bird, M. K.; Volland, H.; Levy, G. S.; Seidel, B. L.; Stelzried, C. T.

1987-01-01

Coronal Faraday rotation of the linearly polarized carrier signals of the Helios spacecraft was recorded during the regularly occurring solar occultations over almost a complete solar cycle from 1975 to 1984. These measurements are used to determine the average strength and radial variation of the coronal magnetic field at solar minimum at solar distances from 3-10 solar radii, i.e., the range over which the complex fields at the coronal base are transformed into the interplanetary spiral. The mean coronal magnetic field in 1975-1976 was found to decrease with radial distance according to r exp-alpha, where alpha = 2.7 + or - 0.2. The mean field magnitude was 1.0 + or - 0.5 x 10 to the -5th tesla at a nominal solar distance of 5 solar radii. Possibly higher magnetic field strengths were indicated at solar maximum, but a lack of data prevented a statistical determination of the mean coronal field during this epoch.

Preliminary operational results from the Willard solar power system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fenton, D. L.; Abernathy, G. H.; Krivokapich, G.; Ellibee, D. E.; Chilton, V.

1980-01-01

The solar powered system located near Willard, New Mexico, generates mechanical or electrical power at a capacity of 19 kW (25 HP). The solar collection system incorporates east/west tracking parabolic trough collectors with a total aperture area of 1275 sq m (13,720 sq ft). The hot oil type thermal energy storage is sufficient for approximately 20 hours of power system operation. The system utilizes a reaction type turbine in conjunction with an organic Rankine cycle engine. Total collector field efficiency reaches a maximum of 20 percent near the winter solstice and about 50 percent during the summer. During the month of July, 1979, the system pumped 60 percent of the 35,300 cu m (28.6 acre-feet) of water delivered. Operating efficiencies for the turbine component, organic Rankine cycle engine and the complete power system are respectively 65 to 75 percent, 12 to 15 percent and 5 to 6 percent. Significant maintenance time was expended on both the collector and power systems throughout the operational period.

Preliminary operational results from the Willard solar power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenton, D. L.; Abernathy, G. H.; Krivokapich, G.; Ellibee, D. E.; Chilton, V.

1980-05-01

The solar powered system located near Willard, New Mexico, generates mechanical or electrical power at a capacity of 19 kW (25 HP). The solar collection system incorporates east/west tracking parabolic trough collectors with a total aperture area of 1275 sq m (13,720 sq ft). The hot oil type thermal energy storage is sufficient for approximately 20 hours of power system operation. The system utilizes a reaction type turbine in conjunction with an organic Rankine cycle engine. Total collector field efficiency reaches a maximum of 20 percent near the winter solstice and about 50 percent during the summer. During the month of July, 1979, the system pumped 60 percent of the 35,300 cu m (28.6 acre-feet) of water delivered. Operating efficiencies for the turbine component, organic Rankine cycle engine and the complete power system are respectively 65 to 75 percent, 12 to 15 percent and 5 to 6 percent. Significant maintenance time was expended on both the collector and power systems throughout the operational period.

Passive exposure of Earth radiation budget experiment components LDEF experiment AO-147: Post-flight examinations and tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickey, John R.

1991-01-01

The Passive Exposure of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Components (PEERBEC) experiment of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission was composed of sensors and components associated with the measurement of the earth radiation budget (ERB) from satellites. These components included the flight spare sensors from the ERB experiment which operated on Nimbus 6 and 7 satellites. The experiment components and materials as well as the pertinent background and ancillary information necessary for the understanding of the intended mission and the results are described. The extent and timing of the LDEF mission brought the exposure from solar minimum between cycles 21 and 22 through the solar maximum of cycle 22. The orbital decay, coupled with the events of solar maximum, caused the LDEF to be exposed to a broader range of space environmental effects than were anticipated. The mission spanned almost six years concurrent with the 12 year (to date) Nimbus 7 operations. Preliminary information is presented on the following: (1) the changes in transmittance experienced by the interference filters; (2) the results of retesting of the thermopile sensors, which appear to be relatively unaffected by the exposure; and (3) the results of the recalibration of the APEX cavity radiometer. The degradation and recovery of the filters of the Nimbus 7 ERB are also discussed relative to the apparent atomic oxygen cleaning which also applies to the LDEF.

Flux Enhancements of > 30 keV Electrons at Low Drift Shells L < 1.2 During Last Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvorova, A. V.

2017-12-01

We present results of statistical analysis of enhancements of >30 keV electrons observed by the NOAA/POES satellites during solar cycles 23 and 24 (1998-2016) at low drift shells L < 1.2, so-called forbidden zone. We collected 1,750 days ( 25% of the total time) when fluxes of the forbidden energetic electrons (FEE) exceeded 103 (cm2 s sr)-1. We found 530 days, when FEE fluxes reached high intensity from 104 up to 107 (cm2 s sr)-1. It was found that the FEE enhancements were observed mostly often at the declining phases and solar minimum. More than 85% of the events occurred under fast solar wind (V > 450 km/s), high substorm activity (AL >150 nT), and enhanced interplanetary electric field perturbations (VδB > 1.5 mV/m). The FEE occurrence rate peaks around the local midnight. We have also found a quite unexpected annual variation of the FEE occurrence rate with a pronounced maximum from May to September, a minor peak in December-January, and minima at the equinoxes. The May-September peak, persisting at different solar cycle phases, was assumed to originate from high conductivity in the auroral ionosphere, which is controlled by the dipole tilt angle and provides better conditions for penetration of electric field perturbations into the inner magnetosphere. This allows explanation of the shape and amplitude of annual variation in the FEE occurrence rate from the convolution of the solar wind driver with the penetration conditions.

Solar-cycle dependence of a model turbulence spectrum using IMP and ACE observations over 38 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, R. A.; Nel, A. E.; Engelbrecht, N. E.

2014-12-01

Ab initio modulation models require a number of turbulence quantities as input for any reasonable diffusion tensor. While turbulence transport models describe the radial evolution of such quantities, they in turn require observations in the inner heliosphere as input values. So far we have concentrated on solar minimum conditions (e.g. Engelbrecht and Burger 2013, ApJ), but are now looking at long-term modulation which requires turbulence data over at a least a solar magnetic cycle. As a start we analyzed 1-minute resolution data for the N-component of the magnetic field, from 1974 to 2012, covering about two solar magnetic cycles (initially using IMP and then ACE data). We assume a very simple three-stage power-law frequency spectrum, calculate the integral from the highest to the lowest frequency, and fit it to variances calculated with lags from 5 minutes to 80 hours. From the fit we then obtain not only the asymptotic variance at large lags, but also the spectral index of the inertial and the energy, as well as the breakpoint between the inertial and energy range (bendover scale) and between the energy and cutoff range (cutoff scale). All values given here are preliminary. The cutoff range is a constraint imposed in order to ensure a finite energy density; the spectrum is forced to be either flat or to decrease with decreasing frequency in this range. Given that cosmic rays sample magnetic fluctuations over long periods in their transport through the heliosphere, we average the spectra over at least 27 days. We find that the variance of the N-component has a clear solar cycle dependence, with smaller values (~6 nT2) during solar minimum and larger during solar maximum periods (~17 nT2), well correlated with the magnetic field magnitude (e.g. Smith et al. 2006, ApJ). Whereas the inertial range spectral index (-1.65 ± 0.06) does not show a significant solar cycle variation, the energy range index (-1.1 ± 0.3) seems to be anti-correlated with the variance (Bieber et al. 1993, JGR); both indices show close to normal distributions. In contrast, the variance (e.g. Burlaga and Ness, 1998, JGR), and both the bendover scale (see Ruiz et al. 2014, Solar Physics) and cutoff scale appear to be log-normal distributed.

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

PubMed Central

Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum. PMID:11050181

GONG Catalog of Solar Filament Oscillations Near Solar Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, M.; Karpen, J.; Ballester, J. L.; Muglach, K.; Terradas, J.; Kucera, T.; Gilbert, H.

2018-06-01

We have cataloged 196 filament oscillations from the Global Oscillation Network Group Hα network data during several months near the maximum of solar cycle 24 (2014 January–June). Selected examples from the catalog are described in detail, along with our statistical analyses of all events. Oscillations were classified according to their velocity amplitude: 106 small-amplitude oscillations (SAOs), with velocities <10 {km} {{{s}}}-1, and 90 large-amplitude oscillations (LAOs), with velocities >10 {km} {{{s}}}-1. Both SAOs and LAOs are common, with one event of each class every two days on the visible side of the Sun. For nearly half of the events, we identified their apparent trigger. The period distribution has a mean value of 58 ± 15 minutes for both types of oscillations. The distribution of the damping time per period peaks at τ/P = 1.75 and 1.25 for SAOs and LAOs, respectively. We confirmed that LAO damping rates depend nonlinearly on the oscillation velocity. The angle between the direction of motion and the filament spine has a distribution centered at 27° for all filament types. This angle agrees with the observed direction of filament-channel magnetic fields, indicating that most of the cataloged events are longitudinal (i.e., undergo field-aligned motions). We applied seismology to determine the average radius of curvature in the magnetic dips, R ≈ 89 Mm, and the average minimum magnetic field strength, B ≈ 16 G. The catalog is available to the community online and is intended to be expanded to cover at least 1 solar cycle.

Numerical modelling of heat and mass transfer in adsorption solar reactor of ammonia on active carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroudam, El. H.

In this paper, we present a modelling of the performance of a reactor of a solar cooling machine based carbon-ammonia activated bed. Hence, for a solar radiation, measured in the Energetic Laboratory of the Faculty of Sciences in Tetouan (northern Morocco), the proposed model computes the temperature distribution, the pressure and the ammonia concentration within the activated carbon bed. The Dubinin-Radushkevich formula is used to compute the ammonia concentration distribution and the daily cycled mass necessary to produce a cooling effect for an ideal machine. The reactor is heated at a maximum temperature during the day and cool at the night. A numerical simulation is carried out employing the recorded solar radiation data measured locally and the daily ambient temperature for the typical clear days. Initially the reactor is at ambient temperature, evaporating pressure; Pev=Pst(Tev=0 ∘C) and maintained at uniform concentration. It is heated successively until the threshold temperature corresponding to the condensing pressure; Pcond=Pst(Tam) (saturation pressure at ambient temperature; in the condenser) and until a maximum temperature at a constant pressure; Pcond. The cooling of the reactor is characterised by a fall of temperature to the minimal values at night corresponding to the end of a daily cycle. We use the mass balance equations as well as energy equation to describe heat and mass transfer inside the medium of three phases. A numerical solution of the obtained non linear equations system based on the implicit finite difference method allows to know all parameters characteristic of the thermodynamic cycle and consider principally the daily evolution of temperature, ammonia concentration for divers positions inside the reactor. The tube diameter of the reactor shows the dependence of the optimum value on meteorological parameters for 1 m2 of collector surface.

A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. II. REFERENCE DYNAMO SOLUTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probabilitymore » of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.« less

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

PubMed

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J; Sander, Stanley P; Yung, Yuk L; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Santee, Michelle L; Harder, Jerald W; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P

2013-02-05

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuhui; Li, King-Fai; Pongetti, Thomas J.; Sander, Stanley P.; Yung, Yuk L.; Liang, Mao-Chang; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Harder, Jerald W.; Snow, Martin; Mills, Franklin P.

2013-01-01

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O3) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O3 chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Aura satellite suggest an ∼7–10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6–7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O3 SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O3 further. PMID:23341617

Seasonal cycle and secular trend of the total and tropospheric column abundance of ethane above the Jungfraujoch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehhalt, D. H.; Schmidt, U.; Zander, R.; Demoulin, P.; Rinsland, C. P.

1991-01-01

The secular trend and the seasonal cycle of the total and the tropospheric column abundances of C2H6 over the Jungfraujoch Station (Switzerland) were deduced from infrared solar spectra recorded in 1951 and from 1984 to 1988. Results show a definite seasonal variation in the total vertical column abundance of C2H6, with a maximum of (1.43 + or - 0.03) x 10 to the 16th molecules/sq cm during March and April and a minimum in the fall; the ratio between the maximum and the minimum column abundances was found to be 1.62 + or - 0.11. The secular trend in the tropospheric burden above the Jungfraujoch was found to be (0.85 + or - 0.3) percent/yr.

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

The South Atlantic Anomaly throughout the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingos, João; Jault, Dominique; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Mandea, Mioara

2017-09-01

The Sun-Earth's interaction is characterized by a highly dynamic electromagnetic environment, in which the magnetic field produced in the Earth's core plays an important role. One of the striking characteristics of the present geomagnetic field is denoted the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the total field intensity is unusually low and the flux of charged particles, trapped in the inner Van Allen radiation belts, is maximum. Here, we use, on one hand, a recent geomagnetic field model, CHAOS-6, and on the other hand, data provided by different platforms (satellites orbiting the Earth - POES NOAA for 1998-2014 and CALIPSO for 2006-2014). Evolution of the SAA particle flux can be seen as the result of two main effects, the secular variation of the Earth's core magnetic field and the modulation of the density of the inner radiation belts during the solar cycle, as a function of the L value that characterises the drift shell, where charged particles are trapped. To study the evolution of the particle flux anomaly, we rely on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of either POES particle flux or CALIOP dark noise. Analysed data are distributed on a geographical grid at satellite altitude, based on a L-shell reference frame constructed from the moving eccentric dipole. Changes in the main magnetic field are responsible for the observed westward drift. Three PCA modes account for the time evolution related to solar effects. Both the first and second modes have a good correlation with the thermospheric density, which varies in response to the solar cycle. The first mode represents the total intensity variation of the particle flux in the SAA, and the second the movement of the anomaly between different L-shells. The proposed analysis allows us to well recover the westward drift rate, as well as the latitudinal and longitudinal solar cycle oscillations, although the analysed data do not cover a complete (Hale) magnetic solar cycle (around 22 yr). Moreover, the developments made here would enable us to forecast the impact of the South Atlantic Anomaly on space weather. A model of the evolution of the eccentric dipole field (magnitude, offset and tilt) would suffice, together with a model for the solar cycle evolution.

Radio range measurements of coronal electron densities at 13 and 3.6 centimeter wavelengths during the 1988 solar conjunction of Voyager 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisher, T. P.; Anderson, J. D.; Morabito, D. D.; Asmar, S. W.; Borutzki, S. E.; Delitsky, M. L.; Densmore, A. C.; Eshe, P. M.; Lewis, G. D.; Maurer, M. J.

1991-01-01

Radio range measurements of total solar plasma delay obtained during the solar conjunction of the Voyager 2 spacecraft in December 1988, which occurred near solar maximum activity in the 11 yr cycle are reported. The radio range measurements were generated by the Deep Space Network at two wavelengths on the downlink from the spacecraft: 3.6 and 13 cm. A direct measurement of the integrated electron density along the ray path between the earth stations and the spacecraft was obtained by differencing the range at the two wavelengths. Coronal electron density profiles have been derived during ingress and egress of the ray path, which approached the sun to within 5 solar radii. At 10 solar radii, the derived density profiles yield 34079 + or - 611/cu cm on ingress and 49688 + or - 983/cu cm on egress. These density levels are significantly higher than observed near previous solar maxima.

An adaptive scale factor based MPPT algorithm for changing solar irradiation levels in outer space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwan, Trevor Hocksun; Wu, Xiaofeng

2017-03-01

Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) techniques are popularly used for maximizing the output of solar panels by continuously tracking the maximum power point (MPP) of their P-V curves, which depend both on the panel temperature and the input insolation. Various MPPT algorithms have been studied in literature, including perturb and observe (P&O), hill climbing, incremental conductance, fuzzy logic control and neural networks. This paper presents an algorithm which improves the MPP tracking performance by adaptively scaling the DC-DC converter duty cycle. The principle of the proposed algorithm is to detect the oscillation by checking the sign (ie. direction) of the duty cycle perturbation between the current and previous time steps. If there is a difference in the signs then it is clear an oscillation is present and the DC-DC converter duty cycle perturbation is subsequently scaled down by a constant factor. By repeating this process, the steady state oscillations become negligibly small which subsequently allows for a smooth steady state MPP response. To verify the proposed MPPT algorithm, a simulation involving irradiances levels that are typically encountered in outer space is conducted. Simulation and experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm is fast and stable in comparison to not only the conventional fixed step counterparts, but also to previous variable step size algorithms.

Mars atmospheric losses induced by the solar wind: current knowledge and perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermakov, Vladimir; Zelenyi, Lev; Vaisberg, Oleg; Sementsov, Egor; Dubinin, Eduard

2017-04-01

Solar wind induced atmospheric losses have been studied since earlier 1970th. Several loss channels have been identified including pick-up of exospheric photo-ions and ionospheric ions escape. Measurements performed during several solar cycles showed variation of these losses by about factor of 10, being largest at maximum solar activity. MAVEN spacecraft equipped with comprehensive set of instruments with high temporal and mass resolution operating at Mars since fall 2014 ensures much better investigation of solar wind enforcing Martian environment, Mars atmospheric losses processes and mass loss rate. These issues are very important for understanding of Martian atmospheric evolution including water loss during cosmogonic time. Simultaneous observations by MAVEN and MEX spacecraft open the new perspective in study of Martian environment. In this report we discuss results of past and current missions and preliminary analysis of heavy ions escape using simultaneous measurements of MEX and MAVEN spacecraft.

Gaussianity versus intermittency in solar system plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, M.

2014-12-01

Statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with the dynamics of the targeted system and sometimes with the physical processes that are at the origin of these fluctuations. Intermittency is sometimes discussed in terms of non-Gaussianity of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of fluctuations for ranges of spatio/temporal scales. Some examples of self-similarity have been however shown for PDFs whose wings are not Gaussian. In this study we discuss intermittency in terms of non-Gaussianity as well as scale dependence of the higher order moments of PDFs, in particular the flatness. We use magnetic field and plasma data from several space missions, in the solar wind (Ulysses, Cluster, and Venus Express), and in the planetary magnetosheaths (Cluster and Venus Express). We analyze Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We investigate Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We study Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), and the magnetosheath. We organize our results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the statistical properties of fluctuations for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence and complexity, and the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a grant of the Romanian CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Solar cycle variations of MIR radiation environment as observed by the LIULIN dosimeter.

PubMed

Dachev TsP; Tomov, B T; Matviichuk YuN; Koleva, R T; Semkova, J V; Petrov, V M; Benghin, V V; Ivanov YuV; Shurshakov, V A; Lemaire, J F

1999-06-01

Measurements on board the MIR space station by the Bulgarian-Russian dosimeter LIULIN have been used to study the solar cycle variations of the radiation environment. The fixed locations of the instrument in the MIR manned compartment behind 6-15 g/cm2 of shielding have given homogeneous series of particle fluxes and doses measurements to be collected during the declining phase of 22nd solar cycle between September 1989 and April 1994. During the declining phase of 22nd solar cycle the GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) flux observed at L>4 (where L is the McIlwain parameter) has enhanced from 0.6-0.7 cm-2 s-1 up to 1.4-1.6 cm-2 s-1. The long-term observations of the trapped radiation can be summarized as follows: the main maximum of the flux and dose rate is located at the southeast side of the geomagnetic field minimum of South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) at L=1.3-1.4. Protons depositing few (nGy cm2)/particle in the detector predominantly populate this region. At practically the same spatial location and for similar conditions the dose rate rises up from 480 to 1470 microGy/h dose in silicon in the 1990-1994 time interval, during the declining phase of the solar cycle. On the other hand the flux rises from 35 up to 115 cm-2 s-1 for the same period of time. A power law dependence was extracted which predicts that when the total neutral density at the altitude of the station decreases from 8x10(-15) to 6x10(-16) g/cm3 the dose increase from about 200 microGy/h up to 1200 microGy/h. At the same time the flux increase from about 30 cm-2 s-1 up to 120 cm-2 s-1. The AP8 model predictions give only 5.8% increase of the flux for the same conditions.

Recent developments in nickel hydrogen technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauchamp, R. L.; Dunlop, J. D.

1988-05-01

A program to design and develop a multikilowatt-hour nickel hydrogen battery for storing electricity from photovoltaic or other power sources is continuing under a cost sharing contract with Sandia National Laboratories. The challenge has been to dramatically reduce the first cost of the battery to make it economically competitive, on a life-cycle cost basis, with other energy storage batteries used in terrestrial applications. The advantages offered by nickel hydrogen batteries are: (1) long cycle life, (2) no maintenance, and (3) a high tolerance to abuse. The last being the most important, implying that there is no need for a charge controller between the solar array and the battery. This would have a beneficial effect on the installation's long term reliability and cost. It also means that one can take full advantage of the maximum output of the solar array, in contrast to systems where the controller isolates the battery during times of maximum insolation. Couple this to the battery's excellent energy efficiency and there can be a significant reduction in the size of the array. In addition, since the state-of-charge is directly related to pressure, the battery can be used as a load management system.

Solar cyclic behavior of trapped energetic electrons in Earth's inner radiation belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, Bob; Thorne, Richard M.

1994-10-01

Magnetic electron spectrometer data from six satellites (OV3-3, OV1-14, OGO 5, S3-2, S3-3, and CRRES) have been used to study long-term (1966-1991) behavior of trapped energetic electrons in the inner radiation belt. Comparison of the observed energy spectra at L equal to or greater than 1.35 for different phases of the solar cycle reveals a clear trend toward enhanced fluxes during periods of solar maximum for energies below a few hundred keV; we suggest that this is caused by an increase in the rate of inward radial diffusion from a source at higher L. In contrast, for L less than 1.30, where atmospheric collisions become increasingly important, the electron flux is reduced during solar maximum; we attribute this to the expected increase in upper atmospheric densities. The electron flux above 1 MeV exhibits a systematic decay beyond 1979 to values well below the current NASA AE-8 model. This indicates that the natural background of high-energy electrons has previously been overestimated due to the long lasting presence of electrons produced by nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Solar cyclic behavior of trapped energetic electrons in Earth's inner radiation belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abel, Bob; Thorne, Richard M.

1994-01-01

Magnetic electron spectrometer data from six satellites (OV3-3, OV1-14, OGO 5, S3-2, S3-3, and CRRES) have been used to study long-term (1966-1991) behavior of trapped energetic electrons in the inner radiation belt. Comparison of the observed energy spectra at L equal to or greater than 1.35 for different phases of the solar cycle reveals a clear trend toward enhanced fluxes during periods of solar maximum for energies below a few hundred keV; we suggest that this is caused by an increase in the rate of inward radial diffusion from a source at higher L. In contrast, for L less than 1.30, where atmospheric collisions become increasingly important, the electron flux is reduced during solar maximum; we attribute this to the expected increase in upper atmospheric densities. The electron flux above 1 MeV exhibits a systematic decay beyond 1979 to values well below the current NASA AE-8 model. This indicates that the natural background of high-energy electrons has previously been overestimated due to the long lasting presence of electrons produced by nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

Influence of Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections on the Sun’s Shadow Observed by the Tibet-III Air Shower Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amenomori, M.; Bi, X. J.; Chen, D.; Chen, T. L.; Chen, W. Y.; Cui, S. W.; Danzengluobu; Ding, L. K.; Feng, C. F.; Feng, Zhaoyang; Feng, Z. Y.; Gou, Q. B.; Guo, Y. Q.; He, H. H.; He, Z. T.; Hibino, K.; Hotta, N.; Hu, Haibing; Hu, H. B.; Huang, J.; Jia, H. Y.; Jiang, L.; Kajino, F.; Kasahara, K.; Katayose, Y.; Kato, C.; Kawata, K.; Kozai, M.; Labaciren; Le, G. M.; Li, A. F.; Li, H. J.; Li, W. J.; Liu, C.; Liu, J. S.; Liu, M. Y.; Lu, H.; Meng, X. R.; Miyazaki, T.; Munakata, K.; Nakajima, T.; Nakamura, Y.; Nanjo, H.; Nishizawa, M.; Niwa, T.; Ohnishi, M.; Ohta, I.; Ozawa, S.; Qian, X. L.; Qu, X. B.; Saito, T.; Saito, T. Y.; Sakata, M.; Sako, T. K.; Shao, J.; Shibata, M.; Shiomi, A.; Shirai, T.; Sugimoto, H.; Takita, M.; Tan, Y. H.; Tateyama, N.; Torii, S.; Tsuchiya, H.; Udo, S.; Wang, H.; Wu, H. R.; Xue, L.; Yamamoto, Y.; Yamauchi, K.; Yang, Z.; Yuan, A. F.; Zhai, L. M.; Zhang, H. M.; Zhang, J. L.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Ying; Zhaxisangzhu; Zhou, X. X.; Tibet ASγ Collaboration

2018-06-01

We examine the possible influence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (ECMEs) on the Sun’s shadow in the 3 TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed by the Tibet-III air shower (AS) array. We confirm a clear solar-cycle variation of the intensity deficit in the Sun’s shadow during ten years between 2000 and 2009. This solar-cycle variation is overall reproduced by our Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of the Sun’s shadow based on the potential field model of the solar magnetic field averaged over each solar rotation period. We find, however, that the magnitude of the observed intensity deficit in the Sun’s shadow is significantly less than that predicted by MC simulations, particularly during the period around solar maximum when a significant number of ECMEs is recorded. The χ 2 tests of the agreement between the observations and the MC simulations show that the difference is larger during the periods when the ECMEs occur, and the difference is reduced if the periods of ECMEs are excluded from the analysis. This suggests the first experimental evidence of the ECMEs affecting the Sun’s shadow observed in the 3 TeV cosmic-ray intensity.

Spotless

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Everything runs in cycles and what goes up must come down. We hear that a lot these days. The topic of conversation is of course the sun. The solar cycle takes 11 years to go from sunspot minimum to maximum and back to minimum. The cycle is driven by changes in the Sun's magnetic field, and is actually a 22-year cycle: during the second 11 years the magnetic polarity of the solar field is reversed. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (or SOHO for short), a joint ESA and NASA mission, has been watching the sun since 1995. Rarely is the sun as quiet as it was on September 27, 2008 - as shown in the visible-light image above left, there were absolutely no sunspots to be seen. If the activity stays this low, this might be the most inactive the Sun has been since the dawn of the space age. This still pales in comparison to the 17th century when for a period of 70 years (called the Maunder Minimum) there were no reported sunspots. Some scientists believe the Maunder Minimum responsible for a 'Little Ice Age' and the sound of some violins. The image on the right, taken 3 days later in extreme UV light, shows the formation of two active regions (in the circles) but both faded away before becoming full-fledged spots. So how low will it go? Only time will tell.

Characterization of the Martian magnetic topology response to extreme solar transient events with MGS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Curry, S.; Mitchell, D. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lillis, R. J.; Dong, C.

2017-12-01

Characterizing how the solar cycle affects the physics of the Mars-solar wind interaction can improve our understanding of Mars' atmospheric evolution and the plasma environment at Mars. In particular, solar transient events such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) significantly change the solar-wind interaction, including the magnetic topology and ion acceleration. However, both the Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) missions have encountered relatively few extreme solar transient events due to the recent low solar activity (2004-2017). In contrast, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) was operating during a relatively active solar maximum (1999-2003). Based on new results from MAVEN, this study reanalyzes MGS data to better understand how the Martian plasma environment responds to extreme solar events. In particular, we aim to investigate how the magnetic topology during these extreme events differs from the topology during quiet times. We conduct orbit comparisons of the magnetic topology inferred from MGS electron pitch angle distributions during quiet periods and extreme events to determine how the open and closed field patterns respond to extreme events.

Periodic variations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions at YBJ, Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bin; Zou, Dan; Chen, Ben Yuan; Zhang, Jin Ye; Xu, Guo Wang

2013-05-01

Observations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions from the plateau station, YBJ, Tibet (90°31‧50″ E, 30°06‧38″ N), over the period from 2006 to 2011, are presented in this work. Its periodic modulations are analyzed in frequency-domain by Lomb-Scargle Periodogram method and in time-domain by folding method. The results show that the fair weather atmospheric electric field intensity is modulated weakly by annual cycle, solar diurnal cycle and its several harmonic components. The modulating amplitude of annual cycle is bigger than that of solar diurnal cycle. The annual minimum/maximum nearly coincides with spring/autumn equinox. The detailed spectrum analysis show that the secondary peaks (i.e. sidereal diurnal cycle and semi-sidereal diurnal cycle) nearly disappear along with their primary peaks when the primary signals are subtracted from electric field data sequence. The average daily variation curve exhibits dual-fluctuations, and has obviously seasonal dependence. The mean value is bigger in summer and autumn, but smaller in spring and winter. The daytime fluctuation is affected by the sunrise and sunset effect, the occurring time of which have a little shift with seasons. However, the nightly one has a great dependence on season conditions.

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emery, Barbara A.; Richardson, Ian G.; Evans, David S.; Rich, Frederick J.; Wilson, Gordon R.

2011-01-01

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from S to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005 -2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (approx.1980, approx.1990, and approx. 2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995-1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27 -day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the > 2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A(sub p)/K(sub p) magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A(sub p)/K(sub p) currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.

NASA's SDO Observes Largest Sunspot of the Solar Cycle

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Oct. 18, 2014, a sunspot rotated over the left side of the sun, and soon grew to be the largest active region seen in the current solar cycle, which began in 2008. Currently, the sunspot is almost 80,000 miles across -- ten Earth's could be laid across its diameter. Sunspots point to relatively cooler areas on the sun with intense and complex magnetic fields poking out through the sun's surface. Such areas can be the source of solar eruptions such as flares or coronal mass ejections. So far, this active region – labeled AR 12192 -- has produced several significant solar flares: an X-class flare on Oct. 19, an M-class flare on Oct. 21, and an X-class flare on Oct. 22, 2014. The largest sunspot on record occurred in 1947 and was almost three times as large as the current one. Active regions are more common at the moment as we are in what's called solar maximum, which is the peak of the sun's activity, occurring approximately every 11 years. Credit: NASA/SDO NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Al2 O3 Underlayer Prepared by Atomic Layer Deposition for Efficient Perovskite Solar Cells.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinbao; Hultqvist, Adam; Zhang, Tian; Jiang, Liangcong; Ruan, Changqing; Yang, Li; Cheng, Yibing; Edoff, Marika; Johansson, Erik M J

2017-10-09

Perovskite solar cells, as an emergent technology for solar energy conversion, have attracted much attention in the solar cell community by demonstrating impressive enhancement in power conversion efficiencies. However, the high temperature and manually processed TiO 2 underlayer prepared by spray pyrolysis significantly limit the large-scale application and device reproducibility of perovskite solar cells. In this study, lowtemperature atomic layer deposition (ALD) is used to prepare a compact Al 2 O 3 underlayer for perovskite solar cells. The thickness of the Al 2 O 3 layer can be controlled well by adjusting the deposition cycles during the ALD process. An optimal Al 2 O 3 layer effectively blocks electron recombination at the perovskite/fluorine-doped tin oxide interface and sufficiently transports electrons through tunneling. Perovskite solar cells fabricated with an Al 2 O 3 layer demonstrated a highest efficiency of 16.2 % for the sample with 50 ALD cycles (ca. 5 nm), which is a significant improvement over underlayer-free PSCs, which have a maximum efficiency of 11.0 %. Detailed characterization confirms that the thickness of the Al 2 O 3 underlayer significantly influences the charge transfer resistance and electron recombination processes in the devices. Furthermore, this work shows the feasibility of using a high band-gap semiconductor such as Al 2 O 3 as the underlayer in perovskite solar cells and opens up pathways to use ALD Al 2 O 3 underlayers for flexible solar cells. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Ideal heat transfer conditions for tubular solar receivers with different design constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Soo; Potter, Daniel; Gardner, Wilson; Too, Yen Chean Soo; Padilla, Ricardo Vasquez

2017-06-01

The optimum heat transfer condition for a tubular type solar receiver was investigated for various receiver pipe size, heat transfer fluid, and design requirement and constraint(s). Heat transfer of a single plain receiver pipe exposed to concentrated solar energy was modelled along the flow path of the heat transfer fluid. Three different working fluids, molten salt, sodium, and supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) were considered in the case studies with different design conditions. The optimized ideal heat transfer condition was identified through fast iterative heat transfer calculations solving for all relevant radiation, conduction and convection heat transfers throughout the entire discretized tubular receiver. The ideal condition giving the best performance was obtained by finding the highest acceptable solar energy flux optimally distributed to meet different constraint(s), such as maximum allowable material temperature of receiver, maximum allowable film temperature of heat transfer fluid, and maximum allowable stress of receiver pipe material. The level of fluid side turbulence (represented by pressure drop in this study) was also optimized to give the highest net power production. As the outcome of the study gives information on the most ideal heat transfer condition, it can be used as a useful guideline for optimal design of a real receiver and solar field in a combined manner. The ideal heat transfer condition is especially important for high temperature tubular receivers (e.g. for supplying heat to high efficiency Brayton cycle turbines) where the system design and performance is tightly constrained by the receiver pipe material strength.

Solar Modulation of the MJO on Intraseasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, L. L.

2017-12-01

During the last two years, several groups have reported evidence for an influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Specifically, DJF mean MJO amplitudes are somewhat larger on average during the easterly QBO phase at 50 hPa (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A possible mechanism is decreased static stability in the tropical lowermost stratosphere caused by increased upwelling associated with the QBO mean meridional circulation during periods of easterly vertical wind shear. It has also been recently proposed that interannual variability of the boreal winter MJO is influenced by tropical upwelling changes associated with the 11-year solar cycle. The modulation is such that MJO amplitudes are especially large under QBOE/SMIN conditions and especially small under QBOW/SMAX conditions (Hood, GRL, 2017). Here, evidence is presented of a modulation of MJO amplitudes under solar maximum conditions by solar variability on the time scale of the solar rotation period (about 27 days). Specifically, normalized occurrence rates of MJO events with amplitudes greater than a chosen threshold are calculated as a function of phase lag relative to peaks in solar UV flux occurring on the solar rotational time scale. All MJO phases and four solar maximum periods are considered (1979-83; 1989-93; 1999-03; 2011-15). The data are further edited to eliminate periods with relatively weak UV variations. About 130 strong "cycles" remain after editing. When MJO events with amplitudes greater than 1.5 are considered, significant reductions of MJO occurrence rates and associated increases in static stability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the warm pool region are obtained several days following solar UV peaks. The reductions in occurrence rate occur during the December to May period when the MJO is most active and are largest when the QBO is in its easterly phase. For example, under the latter conditions, the mean occurrence rate for MJO amplitudes greater than 2 is reduced from the long-term mean of about 21 per cent to about 7 per cent 2 to 4 days following the UV peak, significant at 95 per cent confidence as estimated from Monte Carlo simulations. Conversely, mean occurrence rates are significantly increased five to ten days following solar UV minima.

Steam engine research for solar parabolic dish

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demler, R. L.

1981-01-01

The parabolic dish solar concentrator provides an opportunity to generate high grade energy in a modular system. Most of the capital is projected to be in the dish and its installation. Assurance of a high production demand of a standard dish could lead to dramatic cost reductions. High production volume in turn depends upon maximum application flexibility by providing energy output options, e.g., heat, electricity, chemicals and combinations thereof. Subsets of these options include energy storage and combustion assist. A steam engine design and experimental program is described which investigate the efficiency potential of a small 25 kW compound reheat cycle piston engine. An engine efficiency of 35 percent is estimated for a 700 C steam temperature from the solar receiver.

Study of ionospheric irregularities from Kolhapur (16.4°N, 74.2°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. K.; Chavan, G. A.; Gaikwad, H. P.; Gurav, O. B.; Nade, D. P.; Nikte, S. S.; Ghodpage, R. N.; Patil, P. T.

2018-04-01

The paper reports night time observations of ionospheric irregularities made through amplitude scintillation of 251 MHz signal at Kolhapur (16.4°N, 74.2°E), an equatorial Appleton anomaly region using spaced antenna system. Monthly and night time percentage of occurrence of scintillations, during increasing solar cycle from January 2011 to August 2015, is discussed. The parameters such as-maximum cross-correlation function (CI), Fade Rate are also studied. The percentage occurrence is observed to be higher in post sunset period and during equinoctial months than in winter and summer months. Scintillation occurrence is observed to be suppressed during increasing solar activity. CI shows seasonal changes. Percentage of occurrence of CI ≥ 0.5 decreases with increase in solar activity and fade rate also shows solar activity dependence.

Effect of geomagnetic storms of different solar origin on the ionospheric TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Purohit, P. K.

2018-05-01

We have studied the behaviour of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) at a mid latitude station Usuda (36.130N, 138.360E), Japan during intense geomagnetic storms which were observed during 23 solar cycle (1998-2006). For the present study we have selected 47 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-100nT), for the given period, which were then categorised into four categories depending upon their solar and interplanetary sources like Magnetic Cloud (MC), Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR), Sheath driven Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (SH+ICME) and Sheath driven Magnetic cloud (SH+MC). From our study we found that the geomagnetic storms significantly affect the ionosphere having any of the solar origin. However the geomagnetic storms which are either caused by SH+MC or SH+ICME produced maximum effect in TEC.

The solar corona through the sunspot cycle: preparing for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, Jay M.; Seaton, Daniel; Rusin, Vojtech

2017-01-01

We discuss the evolution of the solar corona as seen at eclipses through the solar-activity cycle. In particular, we discuss the variations of the overall shape of the corona through the relative proportions of coronal streamers at equatorial and other latitudes vs. polar plumes. We analyze the two coronal mass ejections that we observed from Gabon at the 2013 total solar eclipse and how they apparently arose from polar crown filaments, one at each pole. We describe the change in the Ludendorff flattening index from solar maximum in one hemisphere as of the 2013 eclipse through the 2015 totality's corona we observed from Svalbard and, with diminishing sunspot and other magnetic activity in each hemisphere, through the 2016 corona we observed from Ternate, Indonesia.We discuss our observational plans for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse from our main site in Salem, Oregon, and subsidiary sites in Madras, OR; Carbondale, IL; and elsewhere, our main site chosen largely by its favorable rating in cloudiness statistics. We discuss the overlapping role of simultaneous spacecraft observations, including those expected not only from NASA's SDO, ESA's SWAP on PROBA2, and NRL/NASA/ESA's LASCO on SOHO but also from the new SUVI (Solar Ultraviolet Imager) aboard NOAA's GOES-R satellite, scheduled as of this writing to have been launched by the time of this January 2017 meeting.Our research on the 2013 and 2015 total solar eclipses was supported by grants from the Committee for Research and Exploration of the National Geographic Society (NG-CRE). Our research on the 2017 total solar eclipse is supported by both NG-CRE and the Solar Terrestrial Program of the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation.

Solar cycle dependence of the sun's radius at lambda = 525.0 nm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulrich, Roger K.; Bertello, L.

1995-01-01

The Mount Wilson (California) synoptic program of solar magnetic observations scans the solar disk between 1 and 20 times per day. As part of this program, the radius is determined as an average distance between the image center and the point where the intensity in the FeI line at lambda = 525.0 nm drops to 25 percent of its value at the disk's center. The data base of information was analyzed and corrected for effects such as scattered light and atmospheric reflection. The solar variability and the measurement techniques are described. The observation data sets, the corrections made to the data, and the observed variations, are discussed. It is stated that similar spectral lines at lambda = 525.0 nm, which are common in the solar spectrum, probably exhibit similar radius changes. All portions of the sun are weighted equally so that it is concluded that, within spectral lines, the radiating area of the sun is increased at the solar maximum.

Statistical Study of ICMEs and Their Sheaths During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsakou, E.; Moussas, X.

2014-08-01

We have created a new catalog of 325 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using their in-situ plasma signatures from 1996 to 2008; this time period includes Solar Cycle 23. The data set came from the OMNI near-Earth database. The one-minute resolution data that we used include magnetic-field strength, solar-wind speed, proton density, proton temperature, and plasma β. We compared this new catalog with other published catalogs. For every event, we indicated the presence of an ICME-driven shock. We identified the boundaries of ICMEs and their sheaths, and examined the statistical properties of characteristic parameters. We derived the duration and radial width of ICMEs and sheaths in the region near Earth. The statistical analysis of all events shows that, on average, sheaths travel faster than ICMEs, which indicates the expansion of CMEs in the interplanetary medium. They have higher mean magnetic-field strength values than ICMEs, and they are denser. They have higher mean proton temperature and plasma β than ICMEs, but they are smaller than ICMEs and last for a shorter time. The events were divided into different categories according to whether they included a shock and according to the phase of Solar Cycle 23 in which they are observed, i.e. ascending, maximum, or descending phase. We compared the different categories. We present a catalog of events available to the scientific community that studies ICMEs, and show the distribution and statistical properties of various parameters during these phenomena that govern the solar wind, the interplanetary medium, and space weather.

Structural Design Considerations for Tubular Power Tower Receivers Operating at 650 Degrees C: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neises, T. W.; Wagner, M. J.; Gray, A. K.

Research of advanced power cycles has shown supercritical carbon dioxide power cycles may have thermal efficiency benefits relative to steam cycles at temperatures around 500 - 700 degrees C. To realize these benefits for CSP, it is necessary to increase the maximum outlet temperature of current tower designs. Research at NREL is investigating a concept that uses high-pressure supercritical carbon dioxide as the heat transfer fluid to achieve a 650 degrees C receiver outlet temperature. At these operating conditions, creep becomes an important factor in the design of a tubular receiver and contemporary design assumptions for both solar and traditionalmore » boiler applications must be revisited and revised. This paper discusses lessons learned for high-pressure, high-temperature tubular receiver design. An analysis of a simplified receiver tube is discussed, and the results show the limiting stress mechanisms in the tube and the impact on the maximum allowable flux as design parameters vary. Results of this preliminary analysis indicate an underlying trade-off between tube thickness and the maximum allowable flux on the tube. Future work will expand the scope of design variables considered and attempt to optimize the design based on cost and performance metrics.« less

The State of the Thermosphere in 2017 as Observed by SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, L. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marshall, B. T.; Russell, J. M., III

2017-12-01

Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide (CO2, 15 μm) and by nitric oxide (NO, 5.3 μm) has been observed for nearly 16 years by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on timescales ranging from days to the nominal 11-year solar cycle, providing important information about the radiation budget in the upper atmosphere. The effects of Solar Cycle 24 are clearly evident in the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere as observed by SABER. The peak NO cooling in SC24 is about one-third less than the maximum seen in SC23 since the beginning of the SABER record in January 2002, while the SC24 CO2 peak is nearly 95% of that in SC23. SC24 has been weakening throughout all of 2017 as measured by the F10.7 index and the sunspot number. Despite this, the radiative cooling by NO and CO2 has not yet reached the low levels of the prior minimum in 2008-2009. This is due to continuing elevated levels of geomagnetic activity as clearly shown by the Ap index. During the years preceding the prior solar minimum, harmonics of the solar rotation period were evident in time series of the NO and CO2 power, and were associated with high speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes roughly evenly spaced in solar longitude. Despite a number of large, Earth-facing coronal holes in 2017, periodic features have not yet been observed in spectral/Fourier analysis of the SABER radiative cooling time series. Additional comparisons between solar cycles and with other solar and geomagnetic indicators will also be shown.

Solar X-ray Astronomy Sounding Rocket Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moses, J. Daniel

1989-01-01

Several broad objectives were pursued by the development and flight of the High Resolution Soft X-Ray Imaging Sounding Rocket Payload, followed by the analysis of the resulting data and by comparison with both ground based and space based observations from other investigators. The scientific objectives were: to study the thermal equilibrium of active region loop systems by analyzing the X-ray observations to determine electron temperatures, densities, and pressures; by recording the changes in the large scale coronal structures from the maximum and descending phases of Cycle 21 to the ascending phase of Cycle 22; and to extend the study of small scale coronal structures through the minimum of Cycle 21 with new emphasis on correlative observations.

Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, V. G.; Miletsky, E. V.

2017-12-01

Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Spörer catalog (Spörer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.-3 (1712-1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.-4 (1700-1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.

The Relation between Coronal Holes and Coronal Mass Ejections during the Rise, Maximum, and Declining Phases of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohamed, A. A.; Gopalswamy, N; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Makela, P.; Xie, H.; Jung, H.

2012-01-01

We study the interaction between coronal holes (CHs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using a resultant force exerted by all the coronal holes present on the disk and is defined as the coronal hole influence parameter (CHIP). The CHIP magnitude for each CH depends on the CH area, the distance between the CH centroid and the eruption region, and the average magnetic field within the CH at the photospheric level. The CHIP direction for each CH points from the CH centroid to the eruption region. We focus on Solar Cycle 23 CMEs originating from the disk center of the Sun (central meridian distance =15deg) and resulting in magnetic clouds (MCs) and non-MCs in the solar wind. The CHIP is found to be the smallest during the rise phase for MCs and non-MCs. The maximum phase has the largest CHIP value (2.9 G) for non-MCs. The CHIP is the largest (5.8 G) for driverless (DL) shocks, which are shocks at 1 AU with no discernible MC or non-MC. These results suggest that the behavior of non-MCs is similar to that of the DL shocks and different from that of MCs. In other words, the CHs may deflect the CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line and force them to behave like limb CMEs with DL shocks. This finding supports the idea that all CMEs may be flux ropes if viewed from an appropriate vantage point.

THE RECENT REJUVENATION OF THE SUN’S LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC FIELD: A CLUE FOR UNDERSTANDING PAST AND FUTURE SUNSPOT CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheeley, N. R. Jr.; Wang, Y.-M.

The quiet nature of sunspot cycle 24 was disrupted during the second half of 2014 when the Sun’s large-scale field underwent a sudden rejuvenation: the solar mean field reached its highest value since 1991, the interplanetary field strength doubled, and galactic cosmic rays showed their strongest 27-day modulation since neutron-monitor observations began in 1957; in the outer corona, the large increase of field strength was reflected by unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops collapsing inward along the heliospheric current sheet. Here, we show that this rejuvenation was not caused by a significant increase in the level of solar activity asmore » measured by the smoothed sunspot number and CME rate, but instead was caused by the systematic emergence of flux in active regions whose longitudinal distribution greatly increased the Sun’s dipole moment. A similar post-maximum increase in the dipole moment occurred during each of the previous three sunspot cycles, and marked the start of the declining phase of each cycle. We note that the north–south component of this peak dipole moment provides an early indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, and conclude that the amplitude of cycle 25 may be comparable to that of cycle 24, and well above the amplitudes obtained during the Maunder Minimum.« less

An estimation of global solar p-mode frequencies from IRIS network data: 1989-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serebryanskiy, A.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh.; Kholikov, Sh.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Schmider, F. X.; Grec, G.; Cacciani, A.; Palle, P. L.; Lazrek, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.

2001-06-01

The IRIS network has accumulated full disk helioseismological data since July 1989, i.e. a complete 11-year solar cycle. Since the last paper publishing a frequency list [A&A 317 (1997) L71], not only has the network acquired new data, but has also developed new co-operative programs with compatible instruments [Abstr. SOHO 6/GONG 98 Workshop (1998) 51], so that merging IRIS files with these co-operative program data sets has made possible the improvement of the overall duty cycle. This paper presents new estimations of low degree p-mode frequencies obtained from this IRIS++ data bank covering the period 1989-1996, as well as the variation of their main parameters along the total range of magnetic activity, from before the last maximum to the very minimum. A preliminary estimation of the peak profile asymmetries is also included.

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Local time, seasonal, and solar cycle dependency of longitudinal variations of TEC along the crest of EIA over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunda, Surendra; Vyas, B. M.

2013-10-01

global wave number 4 structure in the Indian longitudinal region spanning from ~70 to 95°E forming the upward slope of the peak in the total electron content (TEC) are reported along the crest of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). The continuous and simultaneous measurements from five GPS stations of GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) network are used in this study. The long-term database (2004-2012) is utilized for examining the local time, seasonal, and solar cycle dependency on the longitudinal variations of TEC. Our results confirm the existence of longitudinal variations of TEC in accordance with wave number 4 longitudinal structure including its strength. The results suggest that these variations, in general, start to develop at ~09 LT, achieve maximum strength at 12-15 LT, and decay thereafter, the decay rate depending on the season. They are more pronounced in equinoctial season followed by summer and winter. The longitudinal variations persist beyond midnight in equinox seasons, whereas in winter, they are conspicuously absent. Interestingly, they also exhibit significant solar cycle dependence in the solstices, whereas in the equinoxes, they are independent of solar activity. The comparison of crest-to-trough ratio (CTR) in the eastern (92°E) and western (72°E) extreme longitudes reveals higher CTR on the eastern side than over the western extreme, suggesting the role of nonmigrating tides in modulating the ExB vertical drift and the consequential EIA crest formation.

Solar Flare Aimed at Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

At the height of the solar cycle, the Sun is finally displaying some fireworks. This image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) shows a large solar flare from June 6, 2000 at 1424 Universal Time (10:24 AM Eastern Daylight Savings Time). Associated with the flare was a coronal mass ejection that sent a wave of fast moving charged particles straight towards Earth. (The image was acquired by the Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT), one of 12 instruments aboard SOHO) Solar activity affects the Earth in several ways. The particles generated by flares can disrupt satellite communications and interfere with power transmission on the Earth's surface. Earth's climate is tied to the total energy emitted by the sun, cooling when the sun radiates less energy and warming when solar output increases. Solar radiation also produces ozone in the stratosphere, so total ozone levels tend to increase during the solar maximum. For more information about these solar flares and the SOHO mission, see NASA Science News or the SOHO home page. For more about the links between the sun and climate change, see Sunspots and the Solar Max. Image courtesy SOHO Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope, ESA/NASA

Accelerated aging tests on ENEA-ASE solar coating for receiver tube suitable to operate up to 550 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonaia, A.; D'Angelo, A.; Esposito, S.; Addonizio, M. L.; Castaldo, A.; Ferrara, M.; Guglielmo, A.; Maccari, A.

2016-05-01

A patented solar coating for evacuated receiver, based on innovative graded WN-AlN cermet layer, has been optically designed and optimized to operate at high temperature with high performance and high thermal stability. This solar coating, being designed to operate in solar field with molten salt as heat transfer fluid, has to be thermally stable up to the maximum temperature of 550 °C. With the aim of determining degradation behaviour and lifetime prediction of the solar coating, we chose to monitor the variation of the solar absorptance αs after each thermal annealing cycle carried out at accelerated temperatures under vacuum. This prediction method was coupled with a preliminary Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA) in order to give evidence for any chemical-physical coating modification in the temperature range of interest before performing accelerated aging tests. In the accelerated aging tests we assumed that the temperature dependence of the degradation processes could be described by Arrhenius behaviour and we hypothesized that a linear correlation occurs between optical parameter variation rate (specifically, Δαs/Δt) and degradation process rate. Starting from Δαs/Δt values evaluated at 650 and 690 °C, Arrhenius plot gave an activation energy of 325 kJ mol-1 for the degradation phenomenon, where the prediction on the coating degradation gave a solar absorptance decrease of only 1.65 % after 25 years at 550 °C. This very low αs decrease gave evidence for an excellent stability of our solar coating, also when employed at the maximum temperature (550 °C) of a solar field operating with molten salt as heat transfer fluid.

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

DOE PAGES

Wing, Simon; Rider, Lisa G.; Johnson, Jay R.; ...

2015-05-15

Our objective was to examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: We used data from patients with GCA (1950-2004) and RA (1955-2007) obtained from population-based cohorts. Yearly trends in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence were correlated with the F10.7 index (solar radiation at 10.7 cm wavelength, a proxy for the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation) and AL index (a proxy for the westward auroral electrojet and a measure of geomagnetic activity). Fourier analysis was performed on AL, F10.7, and GCA and RA incidence rates. Results: The correlationmore » of GCA incidence with AL is highly significant: GCA incidence peaks 0-1 year after the AL reaches its minimum (ie, auroral electrojet reaches a maximum). The correlation of RA incidence with AL is also highly significant. RA incidence rates are lowest 5-7 years after AL reaches maximum. AL, GCA and RA incidence power spectra are similar: they have a main peak (periodicity) at about 10 years and a minor peak at 4-5 years. However, the RA incidence power spectrum main peak is broader (8-11 years), which partly explains the lower correlation between RA onset and AL. The auroral electrojets may be linked to the decline of RA incidence more strongly than the onset of RA. The incidences of RA and GCA are aligned in geomagnetic latitude. Conclusions: AL and the incidences of GCA and RA all have a major periodicity of about 10 years and a secondary periodicity at 4-5 years. Geomagnetic activity may explain the temporal and spatial variations, including east-west skewness in geographic coordinates, in GCA and RA incidence, although the mechanism is unknown. Lastly, the link with solar, geospace and atmospheric parameters need to be investigated. These novel findings warrant examination in other populations and with other autoimmune diseases.« less

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

PubMed Central

Wing, Simon; Rider, Lisa G; Johnson, Jay R; Miller, Federick W; Matteson, Eric L; Gabriel, Sherine E

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods We used data from patients with GCA (1950–2004) and RA (1955–2007) obtained from population-based cohorts. Yearly trends in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence were correlated with the F10.7 index (solar radiation at 10.7 cm wavelength, a proxy for the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation) and AL index (a proxy for the westward auroral electrojet and a measure of geomagnetic activity). Fourier analysis was performed on AL, F10.7, and GCA and RA incidence rates. Results The correlation of GCA incidence with AL is highly significant: GCA incidence peaks 0–1 year after the AL reaches its minimum (ie, auroral electrojet reaches a maximum). The correlation of RA incidence with AL is also highly significant. RA incidence rates are lowest 5–7 years after AL reaches maximum. AL, GCA and RA incidence power spectra are similar: they have a main peak (periodicity) at about 10 years and a minor peak at 4–5 years. However, the RA incidence power spectrum main peak is broader (8–11 years), which partly explains the lower correlation between RA onset and AL. The auroral electrojets may be linked to the decline of RA incidence more strongly than the onset of RA. The incidences of RA and GCA are aligned in geomagnetic latitude. Conclusions AL and the incidences of GCA and RA all have a major periodicity of about 10 years and a secondary periodicity at 4–5 years. Geomagnetic activity may explain the temporal and spatial variations, including east-west skewness in geographic coordinates, in GCA and RA incidence, although the mechanism is unknown. The link with solar, geospace and atmospheric parameters need to be investigated. These novel findings warrant examination in other populations and with other autoimmune diseases. PMID:25979866

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Simon; Rider, Lisa G.; Johnson, Jay R.

Our objective was to examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: We used data from patients with GCA (1950-2004) and RA (1955-2007) obtained from population-based cohorts. Yearly trends in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence were correlated with the F10.7 index (solar radiation at 10.7 cm wavelength, a proxy for the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation) and AL index (a proxy for the westward auroral electrojet and a measure of geomagnetic activity). Fourier analysis was performed on AL, F10.7, and GCA and RA incidence rates. Results: The correlationmore » of GCA incidence with AL is highly significant: GCA incidence peaks 0-1 year after the AL reaches its minimum (ie, auroral electrojet reaches a maximum). The correlation of RA incidence with AL is also highly significant. RA incidence rates are lowest 5-7 years after AL reaches maximum. AL, GCA and RA incidence power spectra are similar: they have a main peak (periodicity) at about 10 years and a minor peak at 4-5 years. However, the RA incidence power spectrum main peak is broader (8-11 years), which partly explains the lower correlation between RA onset and AL. The auroral electrojets may be linked to the decline of RA incidence more strongly than the onset of RA. The incidences of RA and GCA are aligned in geomagnetic latitude. Conclusions: AL and the incidences of GCA and RA all have a major periodicity of about 10 years and a secondary periodicity at 4-5 years. Geomagnetic activity may explain the temporal and spatial variations, including east-west skewness in geographic coordinates, in GCA and RA incidence, although the mechanism is unknown. Lastly, the link with solar, geospace and atmospheric parameters need to be investigated. These novel findings warrant examination in other populations and with other autoimmune diseases.« less

Near-surface Salinity and Temperature Structure Observed with Dual-Sensor Drifters in the Subtropical South Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Volkov, Denis; Lumpkin, Rick; Foltz, Gregory

2017-04-01

Three surface drifters equipped with temperature and salinity sensors at 0.2 m and 5 m depths were deployed in April/May 2015 in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean with the objective of measuring near-surface salinity differences seen by satellite and in situ sensors and examining the causes of the differences. Measurements from these drifters indicate that, on average, water at a depth of 0.2 m is about 0.013 psu fresher than at 5 m and about 0.024°C warmer. Events with large temperature and salinity differences between the two depths often occur when surface winds are weak. In addition to the expected surface freshening and cooling during rainfall events, surface salinification occurs under weak wind conditions when there is strong surface warming that enhances evaporation and upper ocean stratification. Further examination of the drifter measurements demonstrate that (i) the amount of surface freshening and vertical salinity gradient heavily depend on wind speed during rain events, (ii) salinity differences between 0.2 m and 5 m are positively correlated with the corresponding temperature differences, and (iii) temperature exhibits a diurnal cycle at both depths, whereas the diurnal cycle of salinity is observed only at 0.2 m when the wind speed is less than 4 m/s. Its phase is consistent with diurnal changes in surface temperature-induced evaporation. Below a wind speed of 6 m/s, the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of temperature at both depths decrease with increasing wind speed. Wind speed also affects the phasing of the diurnal cycle of T5m with the time of maximum T5m increasing gradually with decreasing wind speed. Wind speed does not affect the phasing of the diurnal cycle of T0.2m. At 0.2 m and 5 m, the diurnal cycle of temperature also depends on surface solar radiation, with the amplitude and time of diurnal maximum increasing as solar radiation increases.

Comparison of CCD astrolabe multi-site solar diameter observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrei, A. H.; Boscardin, S. C.; Chollet, F.; Delmas, C.; Golbasi, O.; Jilinski, E. G.; Kiliç, H.; Laclare, F.; Morand, F.; Penna, J. L.; Reis Neto, E.

2004-11-01

Results are presented of measured variations of the photospheric solar diameter, as concurrently observed at three sites of the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) consortium in 2001. Important solar flux variations appeared in that year, just after the maximum of solar activity cycle 23, make that time stretch particularly promising for a comparison of the multi-site results. The sites are those in Turkey, France and Brasil. All observations are made with similar CCD solar astrolabes, and at nearby effective wavelengths. The data reductions share algorithms, that are alike, the outcomes of which are here treated after applying a normalization correction using the Fried parameter. Since the sites are geographically quite far, atmospheric conditions are dismissed as possible causes of the large common trend found. Owing to particularities of each site, the common continuous observational period extends from April to September. The standard deviation for the daily averages is close to 0.47 arcsec for the three sites. Accordingly, the three series are smoothed by a low-pass-band Fourier filter of 150 observations (typically one month). The main common features found are a declining linear trend, of the order of 0.7 mas/day, and a relative maximum, around MJD 2120, of the order of 100 mas. Standard statistical tests endorse the correlation of the three series.

Atmospheric Ionization by Solar Particles Detected by Nitrate Measurements in Antarctic Snow. FY91 AASERT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vitt, Francis M.; Jackman, Charles H.

1995-01-01

The odd nitrogen source strengths associated with Solar Proton Events (SPEs), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), and the oxidation of nitrous oxide in the Earth's middle atmosphere from 1974 through 1993 have been compared globally, at middle and lower latitudes (less than 50 deg), and polar regions (greater than 50 deg) with a two-dimensional (2-D) photochemical transport model. As discovered previously, the oxidation of nitrous oxide dominates the global odd nitrogen source while GCRs and SPEs are significant at polar latitudes. The horizontal transport of odd nitrogen, produced by the oxidation of nitrous oxide at latitudes < 50 deg, was found to be the dominant source of odd nitrogen in the polar regions with GCRs contributing substantially during the entire solar cycle. The source of odd nitrogen from SPEs was more sporadic; however, contributions during several years (mostly near solar maximum) were significant in the polar middle atmosphere.

Mechanical design of a low concentration ratio solar array for a space station application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biss, M. S.; Hsu, L.

1983-01-01

This paper describes a preliminary study and conceptual design of a low concentration ratio solar array for a space station application with approximately a 100 kW power requirement. The baseline design calls for a multiple series of inverted, truncated, pyramidal optical elements with a geometric concentration ratio (GCR) of 6. It also calls for low life cycle cost, simple on-orbit maintainability, 1984 technology readiness date, and gallium arsenide (GaAs) of silicon (Si) solar cell interchangeability. Due to the large area needed to produce the amount of power required for the baseline space station, a symmetrical wing design, making maximum use of the commonality of parts approach, was taken. This paper will describe the mechanical and structural design of a mass-producible solar array that is very easy to tailor to the needs of the individual user requirement.

Slow and fast solar wind - data selection and statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wawrzaszek, Anna; Macek, Wiesław M.; Bruno, Roberto; Echim, Marius

2014-05-01

In this work we consider the important problem of selection of slow and fast solar wind data measured in-situ by the Ulysses spacecraft during two solar minima (1995-1997, 2007-2008) and solar maximum (1999-2001). To recognise different types of solar wind we use a set of following parameters: radial velocity, proton density, proton temperature, the distribution of charge states of oxygen ions, and compressibility of magnetic field. We present how this idea of the data selection works on Ulysses data. In the next step we consider the chosen intervals for fast and slow solar wind and perform statistical analysis of the fluctuating magnetic field components. In particular, we check the possibility of identification of inertial range by considering the scale dependence of the third and fourth orders scaling exponents of structure function. We try to verify the size of inertial range depending on the heliographic latitudes, heliocentric distance and phase of the solar cycle. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007 - 2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM.

Pioneer 10 at Silver Au Describes Sun's atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Almost 4 billion kilometers from the Sun, Pioneer 10's findings paint a detailed picture of the solar atmosphere. The heliosphere is now believed to be a huge magnetic bubble created by the solar wind and gets its tear-shape from streamlining due to the motion of the solar system through the interstellar gas. The skin of the bubble, the region between stellar and interstellar gas, is believed to lie between 50 and 100 AU from the Sun. The solar wind drags the Sun's magnetic field with it. The bubble, probably extends far beyond Pluto, and is believed to breathe, expanding and contracting like a giant cosmic lung with each 11 year cycle. The most recent findings show that as storms on the Sun build up toward maximum solar activity, they send out shock waves throughout the bubble which cause ripples. This long lived solar storm turbulence accelerates low energy cosmic ray particles coming in from the galaxy, deflecting them out of the solar system, and shielding the planets. As distance from the Sun increases, more and more cosmic ray particles penetrate the heliosphere.

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R.

2014-01-01

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

Do we understand coronal mass ejections yet?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildner, Ernest

1986-01-01

Though many more coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed, and though much more has been learned about them during the Solar Maximum Analysis period, they are not yet fully understood. A few recent observational results are reviewed; conclusions and implications drawn from these observations are presented. An emerging picture of the magnetic character of CMEs is sketched; the variations of CMEs' frequency and latitudes over most of a solar cycle are shown. A strong caution about the present lack of concensus on the definition of CMEs is illustrated with examples of the consequences of using different definitions. Finally, some remaining questions about coronal mass ejections are posed.

Activities of the Japanese space weather forecast center at Communications Research Laboratory.

PubMed

Watari, Shinichi; Tomita, Fumihiko

2002-12-01

The International Space Environment Service (ISES) is an international organization for space weather forecasts and belongs to the International Union of Radio Science (URSI). There are eleven ISES forecast centers in the world, and Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) runs the Japanese one. We make forecasts on the space environment and deliver them over the phones and through the Internet. Our forecasts could be useful for human activities in space. Currently solar activity is near maximum phase of the solar cycle 23. We report the several large disturbances of space environment occurred in 2001, during which low-latitude auroras were observed several times in Japan.

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2009-01-01

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Radiation environment for ATS-F. [including ambient trapped particle fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.

1974-01-01

The ambient trapped particle fluxes incident on the ATS-F satellite were determined. Several synchronous circular flight paths were evaluated and the effect of parking longitude on vehicle encountered intensities was investigated. Temporal variations in the electron environment were considered and partially accounted for. Magnetic field calculations were performed with a current field model extrapolated to a later epoch with linear time terms. Orbital flux integrations were performed with the latest proton and electron environment models using new improved computational methods. The results are presented in graphical and tabular form; they are analyzed, explained, and discussed. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission at selected integral energies ranging from 10 to 100 Mev, calculated for a year of maximum solar activity during the next solar cycle.

MODIS Measures Fraction of Sunlight Absorbed by Plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

At the height of the solar cycle, the Sun is finally displaying some fireworks. This image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) shows a large solar flare from June 6, 2000 at 1424 Universal Time (10:24 AM Eastern Daylight Savings Time). Associated with the flare was a coronal mass ejection that sent a wave of fast moving charged particles straight towards Earth. (The image was acquired by the Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT), one of 12 instruments aboard SOHO) Solar activity affects the Earth in several ways. The particles generated by flares can disrupt satellite communications and interfere with power transmission on the Earth's surface. Earth's climate is tied to the total energy emitted by the sun, cooling when the sun radiates less energy and warming when solar output increases. Solar radiation also produces ozone in the stratosphere, so total ozone levels tend to increase during the solar maximum. For more information about these solar flares and the SOHO mission, see NASA Science News or the SOHO home page. For more about the links between the sun and climate change, see Sunspots and the Solar Max. Image courtesy SOHO Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope, ESA/NASA

A micro-sized bio-solar cell for self-sustaining power generation.

PubMed

Lee, Hankeun; Choi, Seokheun

2015-01-21

Self-sustainable energy sources are essential for a wide array of wireless applications deployed in remote field locations. Due to their self-assembling and self-repairing properties, "biological solar (bio-solar) cells" are recently gaining attention for those applications. The bio-solar cell can continuously generate electricity from microbial photosynthetic and respiratory activities under day-night cycles. Despite the vast potential and promise of bio-solar cells, they, however, have not yet successfully been translated into commercial applications, as they possess persistent performance limitations and scale-up bottlenecks. Here, we report an entirely self-sustainable and scalable microliter-sized bio-solar cell with significant power enhancement by maximizing solar energy capture, bacterial attachment, and air bubble volume in well-controlled microchambers. The bio-solar cell has a ~300 μL single chamber defined by laser-machined poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) substrates and it uses an air cathode to allow freely available oxygen to act as an electron acceptor. We generated a maximum power density of 0.9 mW m(-2) through photosynthetic reactions of cyanobacteria, Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803, which is the highest power density among all micro-sized bio-solar cells.

Space Shuttle Projects

NASA Image and Video Library

1984-04-01

This is a photograph of the free-flying Solar Maximum Mission Satellite (SMMS), or Solar Max, as seen by the approaching Space Shuttle Orbiter Challenger STS-41C mission. Launched April 6, 1984, one of the goals of the STS-41C mission was to repair the damaged Solar Max. The original plan was to make an excursion out to the SMMS for capture to make necessary repairs, however, this attempted feat was unsuccessful. It was necessary to capture the satellite via the orbiter's Remote Manipulator System (RMS) and secure it into the cargo bay in order to perform the repairs, which included replacing the altitude control system and the coronograph/polarimeter electronics box. The SMMS was originally launched into space via the Delta Rocket in February 1980, with the purpose to provide a means of studying solar flares during the most active part of the current sunspot cycle. Dr. Einar Tandberg-Hanssen of Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Sciences Lab was principal investigator for the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter, one of the seven experiments on the Solar Max.

Integration of concentrated solar power (CSP) and circulating fluidized bed (CFB) power plants - final results of the COMBO-CFB project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suojanen, Suvi; Hakkarainen, Elina; Kettunen, Ari; Kapela, Jukka; Paldanius, Juha; Tuononen, Minttu; Selek, Istvan; Kovács, Jenö; Tähtinen, Matti

2017-06-01

Hybridization of solar energy together with another energy source is an option to provide heat and power reliably on demand. Hybridization allows decreasing combustion related fuel consumption and emissions, assuring stable grid connection and cutting costs of concentrated solar power technology due to shared power production equipment. The research project "Integration of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Power Plants" (COMBO-CFB) has been carried out to investigate the technical possibilities and limitations of the concept. The main focus was on the effect of CSP integration on combustion dynamics and on the joint power cycle, and on the interactions of subsystems. The research provides new valuable experimental data and knowhow about dynamic behaviour of CFB combustion under boundary conditions of the hybrid system. Limiting factors for maximum solar share in different hybridization schemes and suggestions for enhancing the performance of the hybrid system are derived.

Measurement of secondary cosmic ray intensity at Regener-Pfotzer height using low-cost weather balloons and its correlation with solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Ritabrata; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Pal, Partha Sarathi; Bhowmick, Debashis; Bhattacharya, Arnab

2017-09-01

Cosmic ray flux in our planetary system is primarily modulated by solar activity. Radiation effects of cosmic rays on the Earth strongly depend on latitude due to the variation of the geomagnetic field strength. To study these effects we carried out a series of measurements of the radiation characteristics in the atmosphere due to cosmic rays from various places (geomagnetic latitude: ∼14.50°N) in West Bengal, India, located near the Tropic of Cancer, for several years (2012-2016) particularly covering the solar maximum in the 24th solar cycle. We present low energy (15-140 keV) secondary radiation measurement results extending from the ground till the near space (∼40 km) using a scintillator detector on board rubber weather balloons. We also concentrate on the cosmic ray intensity at the Regener-Pfotzer maxima and find a strong anti-correlation between this intensity and the solar activity even at low geomagnetic latitudes.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

PubMed

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

PubMed Central

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-01-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway. PMID:26213513

Magnetically Modulated Heat Transport in a Global Simulation of Solar Magneto-convection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cossette, Jean-Francois; Charbonneau, Paul; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.

We present results from a global MHD simulation of solar convection in which the heat transported by convective flows varies in-phase with the total magnetic energy. The purely random initial magnetic field specified in this experiment develops into a well-organized large-scale antisymmetric component undergoing hemispherically synchronized polarity reversals on a 40 year period. A key feature of the simulation is the use of a Newtonian cooling term in the entropy equation to maintain a convectively unstable stratification and drive convection, as opposed to the specification of heating and cooling terms at the bottom and top boundaries. When taken together, themore » solar-like magnetic cycle and the convective heat flux signature suggest that a cyclic modulation of the large-scale heat-carrying convective flows could be operating inside the real Sun. We carry out an analysis of the entropy and momentum equations to uncover the physical mechanism responsible for the enhanced heat transport. The analysis suggests that the modulation is caused by a magnetic tension imbalance inside upflows and downflows, which perturbs their respective contributions to heat transport in such a way as to enhance the total convective heat flux at cycle maximum. Potential consequences of the heat transport modulation for solar irradiance variability are briefly discussed.« less

Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Fields from a Coupled Dynamo Potential-Field Source-Surface Model.

PubMed

Dikpati, Mausumi; Suresh, Akshaya; Burkepile, Joan

The structure of the Sun's corona varies with the solar-cycle phase, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. It is widely accepted that the large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields that are most likely generated by dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential-field source-surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation; these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona using a potential-field source-surface model. Assuming axisymmetry, we take linear combinations of associated Legendre polynomials that match the more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986 - 1991), we compute the coefficients of the associated Legendre polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observations. We show that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but it fades as the cycle progresses; higher-order multipolar terms begin to dominate. The amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same for the two limbs, indicating that there is a longitude dependence. While both the 1986 and the 1996 minimum coronas were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, since there was a substantial departure from a dipole. We investigate the physical cause of this departure by including a North-South asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our flux-transport dynamo model, and find that this asymmetry could be one of the reasons for departure from the dipole in the 2008 minimum.

The solar wind interaction with Mars: Mariner 4, Mars 2, Mars 3, Mars 5, and Phobos 2 observations of bow shock position and shape

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slavin, J.A.; Schwingenschuh, K.; Riedler, W.

1991-07-01

Observations taken by Mariner 4, Mars 2, Mars 3, Mars 5, and Phobos 2 are used to model the shape, position, and variability of the Martian bow shock for the purpose of better understanding the interaction of this planet with the solar wind. Emphasis is placed upon comparisons with the results of similar analyses at Venus, the only planet known to have no significant intrinsic magnetic field. Excellent agreement is found between Mars bow shock models derived from the earlier Mariner-Mars data set (24 crossings in 1964-1974) and the far more extensive observations recently returned by Phobos 2 (94 crossingsmore » in 1989). The best fit model to the aggregate data set locates the subsolar bow shock at a planetocentric distance of 1.56 {plus minus} 0.04 R{sub M}. Mapped into the terminator plane, the average distance to the Martian bow shock is 2.66 {plus minus} 0.05 R{sub M}. Compared with Venus, the bow wave at Mars is significantly more distant in the terminator plane, 2.7 R{sub M} versus 2.4 R{sub V}, and over twice as variable in location with a standard deviation of 0.49 R{sub M} versus 0.21 R{sub V} at Venus. The Mars 2, 3, and 5 and Phobos 2 data also contain a small number of very distant dayside shock crossings with inferred subsolar obstacle radii derived from gasdynamic modeling of 2,000 to 4,000 km. Such distant bow shock occurrences do not appear to take place at Venus and may be associated with the expansion of a small Martian magnetosphere under the influence of unusually low wind pressure. Finally, the altitude of the Venus bow shock has a strong solar cycle dependence believed to be due to the effect of solar EUV on the neutral atmosphere and mass loading. Comparison of the Phobos 2 shock observations near solar maximum (R{sub z} = 141) with the Mariner-Mars measurements taken much farther from solar maximum (R{sub z} = 59) indicates that the Martian bow shock location is independent of solar cycle phase and, hence, solar EUV flux.« less

Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usoskin, I. G.; Hulot, G.; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Thébault, E.; Khokhlov, A.

2014-02-01

Aims: The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods: We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results: The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions: The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes - a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth's climate. Data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/L10

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Temporal relations between magnetic bright points and the solar sunspot cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utz, Dominik; Muller, Richard; Van Doorsselaere, Tom

2017-12-01

The Sun shows a global magnetic field cycle traditionally best visible in the photosphere as a changing sunspot cycle featuring roughly an 11-year period. In addition we know that our host star also harbours small-scale magnetic fields often seen as strong concentrations of magnetic flux reaching kG field strengths. These features are situated in inter-granular lanes, where they show up bright as so-called magnetic bright points (MBPs). In this short paper we wish to analyse an homogenous, nearly 10-year-long synoptic Hinode image data set recorded from 2006 November up to 2016 February in the G-band to inspect the relationship between the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre and the relative sunspot number. Our findings suggest that the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre is indeed correlated to the relative sunspot number, but with the particular feature of showing two different temporal shifts between the decreasing phase of cycle 23 including the minimum and the increasing phase of cycle 24 including the maximum. While the former is shifted by about 22 months, the latter is only shifted by less than 12 months. Moreover, we introduce and discuss an analytical model to predict the number of MBPs at the solar disc centre purely depending on the evolution of the relative sunspot number as well as the temporal change of the relative sunspot number and two background parameters describing a possibly acting surface dynamo as well as the strength of the magnetic field diffusion. Finally, we are able to confirm the plausibility of the temporal shifts by a simplistic random walk model. The main conclusion to be drawn from this work is that the injection of magnetic flux, coming from active regions as represented by sunspots, happens on faster time scales than the removal of small-scale magnetic flux elements later on.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Solar Wind Helium Abundance as a Function of Speed and Heliographic Latitude: Variation through a Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasper, J. C.; Stenens, M. L.; Stevens, M. L.; Lazarus, A. J.; Steinberg, J. T.; Ogilvie, Keith W.

2006-01-01

We present a study of the variation of the relative abundance of helium to hydrogen in the solar wind as a function of solar wind speed and heliographic latitude over the previous solar cycle. The average values of A(sub He), the ratio of helium to hydrogen number densities, are calculated in 25 speed intervals over 27-day Carrington rotations using Faraday Cup observations from the Wind spacecraft between 1995 and 2005. The higher speed and time resolution of this study compared to an earlier work with the Wind observations has led to the discovery of three new aspects of A(sub He), modulation during solar minimum from mid-1995 to mid-1997. First, we find that for solar wind speeds between 350 and 415 km/s, A(sub He), varies with a clear six-month periodicity, with a minimum value at the heliographic equatorial plane and a typical gradient of 0.01 per degree in latitude. For the slow wind this is a 30% effect. We suggest that the latitudinal gradient may be due to an additional dependence of coronal proton flux on coronal field strength or the stability of coronal loops. Second, once the gradient is subtracted, we find that A(sub He), is a remarkably linear function of solar wind speed. Finally, we identify a vanishing speed, at which A(sub He), is zero, is 259 km/s and note that this speed corresponds to the minimum solar wind speed observed at one AU. The vanishing speed may be related to previous theoretical work in which enhancements of coronal helium lead to stagnation of the escaping proton flux. During solar maximum the A(sub He), dependences on speed and latitude disappear, and we interpret this as evidence of two source regions for slow solar wind in the ecliptic plane, one being the solar minimum streamer belt and the other likely being active regions.

On the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight. 2: 1983-1992 and comparisons with magnetograms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, Drake; Plymate, Claude

1994-01-01

We report additional results in our program to monitor the wavelength stability of lines in the 2.3 micrometer spectrum of integrated sunlight. We use the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) of the National Solar Observatory to monitor 16 delta V = 2 lines of (12)C(16)O, as well as five atomic lines. Wavenumber calibration is achieved using a low-pressure N2O absorption cell and checked against terrestrial atmospheric lines. Imperfect optical integration of the solar disk remains the principal source of error, but this error has been reduced by improved FTS/telescope collimation and observing procedures. The present results include data from an additional 13 quarterly observing runs since 1985. We continue to find that the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight is variable, in the sense of having a greater reshift at solar maximum. This is supported by the temporal dependence of the integrated light velocity, and by the presence of a correlation between velocity and the disk-averaged magnetic flux derived from Kitt Peak magnetograms. The indicated peak-to-peak apparent velocity amplitude over a solar cycle is approximately the same as the velocity amplitude of the Sun's motion about the solar system barycenter. This represents about half the amplitude which we inferred in Paper I (Deming et al. 1987), but the present result has a much greater statistical significance. Our results have implications for those investigations which search for the Doppler signatures of planetary-mass companions to solar-type stars. We contrast our results to the recent finding by McMillan et al. 1993 that solar absorption lines in the violet spectral region are wavelength-stable over the solar cycle.

On the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight. 2: 1983-1992 and comparisons with magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deming, Drake; Plymate, Claude

1994-05-01

We report additional results in our program to monitor the wavelength stability of lines in the 2.3 micrometer spectrum of integrated sunlight. We use the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) of the National Solar Observatory to monitor 16 delta V = 2 lines of (12)C(16)O, as well as five atomic lines. Wavenumber calibration is achieved using a low-pressure N2O absorption cell and checked against terrestrial atmospheric lines. Imperfect optical integration of the solar disk remains the principal source of error, but this error has been reduced by improved FTS/telescope collimation and observing procedures. The present results include data from an additional 13 quarterly observing runs since 1985. We continue to find that the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight is variable, in the sense of having a greater reshift at solar maximum. This is supported by the temporal dependence of the integrated light velocity, and by the presence of a correlation between velocity and the disk-averaged magnetic flux derived from Kitt Peak magnetograms. The indicated peak-to-peak apparent velocity amplitude over a solar cycle is approximately the same as the velocity amplitude of the Sun's motion about the solar system barycenter. This represents about half the amplitude which we inferred in Paper I (Deming et al. 1987), but the present result has a much greater statistical significance. Our results have implications for those investigations which search for the Doppler signatures of planetary-mass companions to solar-type stars. We contrast our results to the recent finding by McMillan et al. 1993 that solar absorption lines in the violet spectral region are wavelength-stable over the solar cycle.

Radiation measurements on the Mir Orbital Station.

PubMed

Badhwar, G D; Atwell, W; Reitz, G; Beaujean, R; Heinrich, W

2002-10-01

Radiation measurements made onboard the MIR Orbital Station have spanned nearly a decade and covered two solar cycles, including one of the largest solar particle events, one of the largest magnetic storms, and a mean solar radio flux level reaching 250 x 10(4) Jansky that has been observed in the last 40 years. The cosmonaut absorbed dose rates varied from about 450 microGy day-1 during solar minimum to approximately half this value during the last solar maximum. There is a factor of about two in dose rate within a given module, and a similar variation from module to module. The average radiation quality factor during solar minimum, using the ICRP-26 definition, was about 2.4. The drift of the South Atlantic Anomaly was measured to be 6.0 +/- 0.5 degrees W, and 1.6 +/- 0.5 degrees N. These measurements are of direct applicability to the International Space Station. This paper represents a comprehensive review of Mir Space Station radiation data available from a variety of sources. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.

2011-01-01

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

Pioneer Venus data analysis for the retarding potential analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knudsen, William C.

1993-01-01

This report describes the data analysis and archiving activities, analysis results, and instrument performance of the orbiter retarding potential analyzer (ORPA) flown on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft during the period, Aug. 1, 1988 to Sept. 30, 1993. During this period, the periapsis altitude of the Orbiter spacecraft descended slowly from 1900 km altitude, at which altitude the spacecraft was outside the Venus ionosphere, to approximately 130 km altitude in Oct. 1992 at which time communication with the spacecraft ceased as a result of entry of the spacecraft into the Venus atmosphere. The quantity of ORPA data returned during this reporting period was greatly reduced over that recovered in the previous years of the mission because of the reduced power capability of the spacecraft, loss of half of the onboard data storage, and partial failure of the ORPA. Despite the reduction in available data, especially ionospheric data, important scientific discoveries resulted from this extended period of the Pioneer Venus mission. The most significant discovery was that of a strong solar cycle change in the size of the dayside ionosphere and the resulting shutoff of flow of dayside ions into the nightside hemisphere. The large, topside O+ F2 ionospheric layer observed during the first three years of the Pioneer Venus mission, a period of solar cycle maximum activity, is absent during the solar cycle minimum activity period.

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS OBSERVED AT L1 IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fludra, A., E-mail: Andrzej.Fludra@stfc.ac.uk

2015-01-20

We analyze a unique 15 yr record of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) measurements made by the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer NIS detectors, recording integrated GCR numbers with energies above 1.0 GeV between 1996 July and 2011 June. We are able to closely reproduce the main features of the SOHO/CDS GCR record using the modulation potential calculated from neutron monitor data by Usoskin et al. The GCR numbers show a clear solar cycle modulation: they decrease by 50% from the 1997 minimum to the 2000 maximum of the solar cycle, then return to the 1997 level in 2007 and continue to rise, in 2009 Decembermore » reaching a level 25% higher than in 1997. This 25% increase is in contrast with the behavior of Ulysses/KET GCR protons extrapolated to 1 AU in the ecliptic plane, showing the same level in 2008-2009 as in 1997. The GCR numbers are inversely correlated with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. In particular, the continued increase of SOHO/CDS GCRs from 2007 until 2009 is correlated with the decrease of the minimum tilt angle from 30° in mid-2008 to 5° in late 2009. The GCR level then drops sharply from 2010 January, again consistent with a rapid increase of the tilt angle to over 35°. This shows that the extended 2008 solar minimum was different from the 1997 minimum in terms of the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.« less

Project SOLWIND: Space radiation exposure. [evaluation of particle fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.

1975-01-01

A special orbital radiation study was conducted for the SOLWIND project to evaluate mission-encountered energetic particle fluxes. Magnetic field calculations were performed with a current field model, extrapolated to the tentative spacecraft launch epoch with linear time terms. Orbital flux integrations for circular flight paths were performed with the latest proton and electron environment models, using new improved computational methods. Temporal variations in the ambient electron environment are considered and partially accounted for. Estimates of average energetic solar proton fluences are given for a one year mission duration at selected integral energies ranging from E greater than 10 to E greater than 100 MeV; the predicted annual fluence is found to relate to the period of maximum solar activity during the next solar cycle. The results are presented in graphical and tabular form; they are analyzed, explained, and discussed.

Radiation hazards to synchronous satellites: The IUE (SAS-D) mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.

1973-01-01

The ambient trapped particle fluxes incident on the IUE (SAS-D) satellite were studied. Several synchronous elliptical and circular flight paths were evaluated and the effect of inclination, eccentricity, and parking longitude on vehicle encountered intensities was investigated. Temporal variations in the electron environment were considered and partially accounted for. Magnetic field calculations were performed with a current field model extrapolated to a later epoch with linear time terms. Orbital flux integrations were performed with the latest proton and electron environment models using new improved computational methods. The results are presented in graphical and tabular form; they are analyzed, explained, and discussed. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission at selected integral energies ranging from 10 to 100 MeV, calculated for a year of maximum solar activity during the next solar cycle.

MLSO Mark III K-Coronameter Observations of the CME Rate from 1989-1996

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St Cyr, O. C.; Flint, Q. A.; Xie, H.; Webb, D. F.; Burkepile, J. T.; Lecinski, A. R.; Quirk, C.; Stanger, A. L.

2015-01-01

We report here an attempt to fill the 1990-1995 gap in the CME (coronal mass ejection) rate using the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO)'s Mark III (Mk3) K-coronameter. The Mk3 instrument observed routinely several hours most days beginning in 1980 until it was upgraded to Mk4 in 1999. We describe the statistical properties of the CMEs detected during 1989-1996, and we determine a CME rate for each of those years. Since spaceborne coronagraphs have more complete duty cycles than a ground-based instrument at a single location, we compare the Mk3-derived CME rate from 1989 with the SMM C/P (Solar Maximum Mission Coronagraph/Polarimeter) coronagraph, and from 1996 with the SOHO (Solar and Hellospheric Observatory) LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph) coronagraphs.

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

Evaluation of a Revised Interplanetary Shock Prediction Model: 1D CESE-HD-2 Solar-Wind Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Du, A. M.; Du, D.; Sun, W.

2014-08-01

We modified the one-dimensional conservation element and solution element (CESE) hydrodynamic (HD) model into a new version [ 1D CESE-HD-2], by considering the direction of the shock propagation. The real-time performance of the 1D CESE-HD-2 model during Solar Cycle 23 (February 1997 - December 2006) is investigated and compared with those of the Shock Time of Arrival Model ( STOA), the Interplanetary-Shock-Propagation Model ( ISPM), and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 ( HAFv.2). Of the total of 584 flare events, 173 occurred during the rising phase, 166 events during the maximum phase, and 245 events during the declining phase. The statistical results show that the success rates of the predictions by the 1D CESE-HD-2 model for the rising, maximum, declining, and composite periods are 64 %, 62 %, 57 %, and 61 %, respectively, with a hit window of ± 24 hours. The results demonstrate that the 1D CESE-HD-2 model shows the highest success rates when the background solar-wind speed is relatively fast. Thus, when the background solar-wind speed at the time of shock initiation is enhanced, the forecasts will provide potential values to the customers. A high value (27.08) of χ 2 and low p-value (< 0.0001) for the 1D CESE-HD-2 model give considerable confidence for real-time forecasts by using this new model. Furthermore, the effects of various shock characteristics (initial speed, shock duration, background solar wind, longitude, etc.) and background solar wind on the forecast are also investigated statistically.

Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William Dean

2012-01-01

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE SHALLOW INTERIOR DURING THE RISING PHASE OF CYCLE 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Junwei; Bogart, R. S.; Kosovichev, A. G.

2014-07-01

Solar subsurface zonal- and meridional-flow profiles during the rising phase of solar cycle 24 are studied using the time-distance helioseismology technique. The faster zonal bands in the torsional-oscillation pattern show strong hemispheric asymmetries and temporal variations in both width and speed. The faster band in the northern hemisphere is located closer to the equator than the band in the southern hemisphere and migrates past the equator when the magnetic activity in the southern hemisphere is reaching maximum. The meridional-flow speed decreases substantially with the increase of magnetic activity, and the flow profile shows two zonal structures in each hemisphere. Themore » residual meridional flow, after subtracting a mean meridional-flow profile, converges toward the activity belts and shows faster and slower bands like the torsional-oscillation pattern. More interestingly, the meridional-flow speed above latitude 30° shows an anti-correlation with the poleward-transporting magnetic flux, slower when the following-polarity flux is transported and faster when the leading-polarity flux is transported. It is expected that this phenomenon slows the process of magnetic cancellation and polarity reversal in high-latitude areas.« less

Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.

We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In

Martian Atmospheric and Ionospheric plasma Escape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundin, Rickard

2016-04-01

Solar forcing is responsible for the heating, ionization, photochemistry, and erosion processes in the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the terrestrial planets. Of the four terrestrial planets, the Earth is the only one with a fully developed biosphere, while our kin Venus and Mars have evolved into arid inhabitable planets. As for Mars, there are ample evidences for an early Noachian, water rich period on Mars. The question is, what made Mars evolve so differently compared to the Earth? Various hydrosphere and atmospheric evolution scenarios for Mars have been forwarded based on surface morphology, chemical composition, simulations, semi-empiric (in-situ data) models, and the long-term evolution of the Sun. Progress has been made, but the case is still open regarding the changes that led to the present arid surface and tenuous atmosphere at Mars. This presentation addresses the long-term variability of the Sun, the solar forcing impact on the Martian atmosphere, and its interaction with the space environment - an electromagnetic wave and particle interaction with the upper atmosphere that has implications for its photochemistry, composition, and energization that governs thermal and non-thermal escape. Non-thermal escape implies an electromagnetic upward energization of planetary ions and molecules to velocities above escape velocity, a process governed by a combination of solar EUV radiation (ionization), and energy and momentum transfer by the solar wind. The ion escape issue dates back to the early Soviet and US-missions to Mars, but the first more accurate estimates of escape rates came with the Phobos-2 mission in 1989. Better-quality ion composition measurement results of atmospheric/ionospheric ion escape from Mars, obtained from ESA Mars Express (MEX) instruments, have improved our understanding of the ion escape mechanism. With the NASA MAVEN spacecraft orbiting Mars since Sept. 2014, dual in-situ measurement with plasma instruments are now carried out in the Martian planetary realm. Of particular interest from a planetary atmospheric escape point of view is the long-term implications of solar forcing. From ASPERA-data on MEX it has been possible to cover the transition from cycle 23 up to the cycle 24 maximum, data displaying clear solar cycle dependence. The planetary ion escape rate increased from solar minimum to solar maximum by a factor of 10. From a regression analysis using ion escape fluxes and solar forcing proxies, a "back-casting" tool is developed [1], enabling determination of the planetary ion escape back in time based on long-term solar forcing proxies (F10.7, sunspot number). The tool may be applied to other long-term solar proxies, such as the radiogenic isotopes in the Earth's atmosphere, 10Be and 14C. The cosmic-ray production of these long-lifetime (>10000 year) isotopes is modulated by the solar-heliospheric magnetic flux, i.e. an indirect measure of solar magnetic activity. Beyond that there is so far only one additional rough "back-casting" tool, the "Sun-in-time", a method whereby the age of, EUV/UV radiation, and mass-loss of other sun-like stars are determined [2, 3]. [1] Lundin et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 23, pp. 6028-6032, 2013. [2] Wood et al., ApJ, 574:412-425, 2002. [3] Ribas et al., ApJ., 622:680-694, 2005

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Latitude character and evolution of Gnevyshev gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, K. K.; Hiremath, K. M.; Yellaiah, G.

2017-06-01

The time interval, between two highest peaks of the sunspot maximum, during which activity energy substantially absorbed is called Gnevyshev gap. In this study we focus on mysterious evolution of the Gnevyshev gap by analyzing and comparing the integrated (over the whole Sun) characteristics of magnetic field strength of sunspot groups, soft x-ray flares, filaments or prominences and polar faculae. The time latitude distribution of these solar activities from photosphere to coronal height, for the low (≤50°) and high (≥50°) latitudes, shows the way Gnevyshev gap is evolved. The presence of double peak structure is noticed in high latitude (≥50°) activity. During activity maximum the depression (or valley) appearing, in different activity processes, probably due to shifting, spreading, and transfer of energy from higher to lower latitudes with the progress of solar cycle. The morphology of successive lower latitude zones, considering it as a wave pulse, appears to be modified/scattered, by certain degree due to shifting of magnetic energy to empower higher or lower latitudes.

Climate variability related to the 11 year solar cycle as represented in different spectral solar irradiance reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Misios, Stergios; Matthes, Katja; Langematz, Ulrike; Tourpali, Kleareti

2016-04-01

Advanced spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstructions differ significantly from each other in terms of the mean solar spectrum, that is the spectral distribution of energy, and solar cycle variability. Largest uncertainties - relative to mean irradiance - are found for the ultraviolet range of the spectrum, a spectral region highly important for radiative heating and chemistry in the stratosphere and troposphere. This study systematically analyzes the effects of employing different SSI reconstructions in long-term (40 years) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations to estimate related uncertainties of the atmospheric response. These analyses are highly relevant for the next round of CCM studies as well as climate models within the CMIP6 exercise. The simulations are conducted by means of two state-of-the-art CCMs - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - run in "atmosphere-only"-mode. These models are quite different with respect to the complexity of the implemented radiation and chemistry schemes. CESM1(WACCM) features a chemistry module with considerably higher spectral resolution of the photolysis scheme while EMAC employs a radiation code with notably higher spectral resolution. For all simulations, concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, as well as observed sea surface temperatures (SST) are set to average conditions representative for the year 2000 (for SSTs: mean of decade centered over year 2000) to exclude anthropogenic influences and differences due to variable SST forcing. Only the SSI forcing differs for the various simulations. Four different forcing datasets are used: NRLSSI1 (used as a reference in all previous climate modeling intercomparisons, i.e. CMIP5, CCMVal, CCMI), NRLSSI2, SATIRE-S, and the SSI forcing dataset recommended for the CMIP6 exercise. For each dataset, a solar maximum and minimum timeslice is integrated, respectively. The results of these simulations - eight in total - are compared to each other with respect to their shortwave heating rate differences (additionally collated with line-by-line calculations using libradtran), differences in the photolysis rates, as well as atmospheric circulation features (temperature, zonal wind, geopotential height, etc.). It is shown that atmospheric responses to the different SSI datasets differ significantly from each other. This is a result from direct radiative effects as well as indirect effects induced by ozone feedbacks. Differences originating from using different SSI datasets for the same level of solar activity are in the same order of magnitude as those associated with the 11 year solar cycle within a specific dataset. However, the climate signals related to the solar cycle are quite comparable across datasets.

The Structure of Titan's Ionosphere from 10 Years of Cassini Measurements: Solar Cycle and Saturn Local Time Dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edberg, N. J. T.; Kurth, W. S.; Gurnett, D. A.; Andrews, D. J.; Vigren, E.; Shebanits, O.; Agren, K.; Wahlund, J. E.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Holmberg, M.; Jackman, C. M.; Cravens, T.; Bertucci, C.; Dougherty, M. K.

2014-12-01

We present measurements from the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science/Langmuir probe (RPWS/LP) instrument of the electron density in the ionosphere of Titan from the first ~100 flybys (2004-2014). After more than 10 years of measurements a good number of measurements exists from Titan's ionosphere. This allows for statistical studies of the structure of Titan's ionosphere. The electron density has been shown to vary significantly from one flyby to the next, as well as on longer time scales and here we discern some of the reasons for the observed ionospheric variability. Firstly, following the rise to the recent solar maximum we show how the ionospheric peak density, normalized to a common solar zenith angle, Nnorm clearly varies with the ~11-year solar cycle. Nnorm correlates well with the solar energy flux Fe and we find that Nnorm ∝ Fek, with k = 0.54 ± 0.18, which is close to the theoretical value of 0.5. Secondly, we present results that indicate that the ionospheric density in the topside ionosphere (altitude range 1200-2400 km) are generally significantly increased, roughly by a factor of 2, when Titan is located in the post-midnight sector of Saturn, i.e. at Saturn local times 00 - 03 h, compared to other local time sectors. We suggest that this increase could be caused by additional particle impact ionization from reconnection events in the Saturn tail.

Amplification of the solar signal in the summer monsoon rainband in China by synergistic actions of different dynamical responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Wang, Jingsong; Liu, Haiwen; Xiao, Ziniu

2017-02-01

A rainband meridional shift index (RMSI) is defined and used to statistically prove that the East Asian summer monsoon rainband is usually significantly more northward in the early summer of solar maximum years than that of solar minimum years. By applying continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence, it is found that throughout most of the 20th century, the significant decadal oscillations of sunspot number (SSN) and the RMSI are phase-locked and since the 1960s, the SSN has led the RMSI slightly by approximately 1.4 yr. Wind and Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux analysis shows that the decadal meridional oscillation of the June rainband likely results from both a stronger or earlier onset of the tropical monsoon and poleward shift of the subtropical westerly jet in high-solar months of May and June. The dynamical responses of the lower tropical monsoon and the upper subtropical westerly jet to the 11-yr solar cycle transmit bottom-up and top-down solar signals, respectively, and the synergistic actions between the monsoon and the jet likely amplify the solar signal at the northern boundary of the monsoon to some extent.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Hongqi; Brandenburg, Axel; Sokoloff, D. D., E-mail: hzhang@bao.ac.cn

We adopt an isotropic representation of the Fourier-transformed two-point correlation tensor of the magnetic field to estimate the magnetic energy and helicity spectra as well as current helicity spectra of two individual active regions (NOAA 11158 and NOAA 11515) and the change of the spectral indices during their development as well as during the solar cycle. The departure of the spectral indices of magnetic energy and current helicity from 5/3 are analyzed, and it is found that it is lower than the spectral index of the magnetic energy spectrum. Furthermore, the fractional magnetic helicity tends to increase when the scale of themore » energy-carrying magnetic structures increases. The magnetic helicity of NOAA 11515 violates the expected hemispheric sign rule, which is interpreted as an effect of enhanced field strengths at scales larger than 30–60 Mm with opposite signs of helicity. This is consistent with the general cycle dependence, which shows that around the solar maximum the magnetic energy and helicity spectra are steeper, emphasizing the large-scale field.« less

Investigation of reliability attributes and accelerated stress factors of terrestrial solar cells. First annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prince, J.L.; Lathrop, J.W.

1979-05-01

The results of accelerated stress testing of four different types of silicon terrestrial solar cells are discussed. The accelerated stress tests used included bias-temperature tests, bias-temperature-humidity tests, thermal cycle and thermal shock tests, and power cycle tests. Characterization of the cells was performed before stress testing and at periodic down-times, using electrical measurement, visual inspection, and metal adherence pull tests. Electrical parameters measured included short-circuit current, I/sub sc/, open circuit voltage, V/sub oc/, and output power, voltage, and current at the maximum power point, P/sub m/, V/sub m/, and I/sub m/ respectively. Incorporated in the report are the distributions ofmore » the prestress electrical data for all cell types. Data was also obtained on cell series and shunt resistance. Significant differences in the response to the various stress tests was observed between cell types. On the basis of the experience gained in this research work, a suggested Reliability Qualification Test Schedule was developed.« less

Thermodynamic Analysis of a Rankine Cycle Powered Vapor Compression Ice Maker Using Solar Energy

PubMed Central

Hu, Bing; Bu, Xianbiao; Ma, Weibin

2014-01-01

To develop the organic Rankine-vapor compression ice maker driven by solar energy, a thermodynamic model was developed and the effects of generation temperature, condensation temperature, and working fluid types on the system performance were analyzed. The results show that the cooling power per square meter collector and ice production per square meter collector per day depend largely on generation temperature and condensation temperature and they increase firstly and then decrease with increasing generation temperature. For every working fluid there is an optimal generation temperature at which organic Rankine efficiency achieves the maximum value. The cooling power per square meter collector and ice production per square meter collector per day are, respectively, 126.44 W m−2 and 7.61 kg m−2 day−1 at the generation temperature of 140°C for working fluid of R245fa, which demonstrates the feasibility of organic Rankine cycle powered vapor compression ice maker. PMID:25202735

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, G.; Krivova, N.; Wu, C. J.; Lean, J.

2016-11-01

Reliable historical records of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy that is incident upon Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries that is due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate the effects that the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series may have on model reconstructions of the TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on timescales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar-activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable reconstructing historical TSI. Revisions of the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial timescales according to the model reconstruction methods that are employed. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885, but leads to solar-cycle fluctuations with greater amplitude in the TSI reconstructions prior. This suggests that many eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and from comparing this era to the present, we find only very small potential differences in the estimated solar contributions to the climate with this new sunspot record.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Martian Hot Oxygen Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deighan, J.; Jain, S.; Chaffin, M.; Chaufray, J. Y.; Schneider, N. M.; Clarke, J. T.; Mayyasi, M.; Lillis, R. J.; Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Chamberlin, P. C.

2017-12-01

The dominant loss mechanism of oxygen from Mars to space in the current epoch is thought to be photochemical escape of hot oxygen produced by dissociative recombination of O2+. This ion is ultimately sourced from CO2+, which is the primary product of photoionization. The escaping hot oxygen population is accompanied by a gravitationally bound hot oxygen corona produced by the same mechanism. The MAVEN spacecraft has been at Mars since November 2014, with multiple seasons suitable for the IUVS instrument to observe the dayside hot oxygen corona via fluorescence of the O I 130.4 nm triplet. This provides the opportunity to examine temporal variations associated with changes in the photoionizing solar EUV radiation which produces CO2+ and O2+ ions. We present results based on two seasons: LS = 270 in Mars Year 32 during the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 and LS = 210 in Mars Year 33 late in the declining phase of the same Solar Cycle. The data in both seasons contain multiple solar rotations. We compare the oxygen corona density to the EUV solar flux measured by MAVEN/EUVM and ionization frequencies calculated therefrom. The peak brightness of ionospheric CO2+ UVD emission from IUVS limb scans is also used as a direct indicator of the photoionization frequency. As expected, the result is a strong correlation between solar EUV input, observed ionization frequency, and the density of the hot oxygen corona. In addition, a new observation strategy was employed during the MY 33 season to view the Martian corona near the sub-solar point with anti-parallel lines of sight from opposing hemispheres. These observations reveal a significant hemispherical asymmetry in brightness, providing a constraint on the large scale spatial variability of the dayside oxygen corona.

An MHD simulation model of time-dependent global solar corona with temporally varying solar-surface magnetic field maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, K.

2013-11-01

We present a model of a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the sub-Alfvenic solar corona and super-Alfvenic solar wind with temporally varying solar-surface boundary magnetic field data. To (i) accommodate observational data with a somewhat arbitrarily evolving solar photospheric magnetic field as the boundary value and (ii) keep the divergence-free condition, we developed a boundary model, here named Confined Differential Potential Field model, that calculates the horizontal components of the magnetic field, from changes in the vertical component, as a potential field confined in a thin shell. The projected normal characteristic method robustly simulates the solar corona and solar wind, in response to the temporal variation of the boundary Br. We conduct test MHD simulations for two periods, from Carrington Rotation number 2009 to 2010 and from Carrington Rotation 2074 to 2075 at solar maximum and minimum of Cycle 23, respectively. We obtained several coronal features that a fixed boundary condition cannot yield, such as twisted magnetic field lines at the lower corona and the transition from an open-field coronal hole to a closed-field streamer. We also obtained slight improvements of the interplanetary magnetic field, including the latitudinal component, at Earth.

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldwin, M.P.; Dunkerton, T.J.

1989-08-01

The 10.7 cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with north pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). The authors supplement observations with calculations showing that temperatures over most of the northern hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with north pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle. The authors present results, similar to the observed solar cycle correlations, with simulated harmonics of various periods replacing the solar cycle. These calculationsmore » demonstrate the correlations at least as high as those for the solar cycle results may be obtained using simulated harmonics.« less

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Sun-Burned: Space Weather's Impact on United States National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stebbins, B.

2014-12-01

The heightened media attention surrounding the 2013-14 solar maximum presented an excellent opportunity to examine the ever-increasing vulnerability of US national security and its Department of Defense to space weather. This vulnerability exists for three principal reasons: 1) a massive US space-based infrastructure; 2) an almost exclusive reliance on an aging and stressed continental US power grid; and 3) a direct dependence upon a US economy adapted to the conveniences of space and uninterrupted power. I tailored my research and work for the national security policy maker and military strategists in an endeavor to initiate and inform a substantive dialogue on America's preparation for, and response to, a major solar event that would severely degrade core national security capabilities, such as military operations. Significant risk to the Department of Defense exists from powerful events that could impact its space-based infrastructure and even the terrestrial power grid. Given this ever-present and increasing risk to the United States, my work advocates raising the issue of space weather and its impacts to the level of a national security threat. With the current solar cycle having already peaked and the next projected solar maximum just a decade away, the government has a relatively small window to make policy decisions that prepare the nation and its Defense Department to mitigate impacts from these potentially catastrophic phenomena.

The Effects of Solar Maximum on the Earth's Satellite Population and Space Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2012-01-01

The rapidly approaching maximum of Solar Cycle 24 will have wide-ranging effects not only on the number and distribution of resident space objects, but also on vital aspects of space situational awareness, including conjunction assessment processes. The best known consequence of high solar activity is an increase in the density of the thermosphere, which, in turn, increases drag on the vast majority of objects in low Earth orbit. The most prominent evidence of this is seen in a dramatic increase in space object reentries. Due to the massive amounts of new debris created by the fragmentations of Fengyun-1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 during the recent period of Solar Minimum, this effect might reach epic levels. However, space surveillance systems are also affected, both directly and indirectly, historically leading to an increase in the number of lost satellites and in the routine accuracy of the calculation of their orbits. Thus, at a time when more objects are drifting through regions containing exceptionally high-value assets, such as the International Space Station and remote sensing satellites, their position uncertainties increase. In other words, as the possibility of damaging and catastrophic collisions increases, our ability to protect space systems is degraded. Potential countermeasures include adjustments to space surveillance techniques and the resetting of collision avoidance maneuver thresholds.

Alpha Centauri at a Crossroads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas

2015-10-01

Nearby Alpha Centauri AB (G2V+K1V) contains the two best characterized solar-like dwarf stars, which also have the best studied multi-MK coronal X-ray activity cycles, extending back to the 1970's. Objective is to continue tracking the evolving multi-decadal high-energy narrative of Alpha Cen with semiannual X-ray pointings in Chandra Cycles 16-18, as the system reaches a coronal crossroads: solar twin A rising toward starspot cycle maximum, K-type companion B sinking into a minimum. HST/STIS UV spectra will support and leverage the X-ray measurements by probing chromospheric and subcoronal dynamics, with connection to the corona through the FUV Fe XII 1242 forbidden line. Only Chandra can resolve the AB X-ray pair as the Alpha Cen orbit also reaches a crossroads in 2016 (only 4 separation), and only HST/STIS can measure the bright Alpha Cen stars with sufficient UV spectral resultion and wavelength coherence. What's more, the recent validation of the STIS NDA,B,C long slits for echelle use now make feasible NUV E230H measurements (e.g., of key chromospheric tracers Mg II 2800 and Mg I 2852) which heretofore were not practical in a long-term program of this nature.

Alpha Centauri at a Crossroads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayres, Thomas

2016-10-01

Nearby Alpha Centauri AB (G2V+K1V) contains the two best characterized solar-like dwarf stars, which also have the best studied multi-MK coronal X-ray activity cycles, extending back to the 1970's. Objective is to continue tracking the evolving multi-decadal high-energy narrative of Alpha Cen with semiannual X-ray pointings in Chandra Cycles 16-18, as the system reaches a coronal crossroads: solar twin A rising toward starspot cycle maximum, K-type companion B sinking into a minimum. HST/STIS UV spectra will support and leverage the X-ray measurements by probing chromospheric and subcoronal dynamics, with connection to the corona through the FUV Fe XII 1242 forbidden line. Only Chandra can resolve the AB X-ray pair as the Alpha Cen orbit also reaches a crossroads in 2016 (only 4 separation), and only HST/STIS can measure the bright Alpha Cen stars with sufficient UV spectral resolution and wavelength coherence. What's more, the recent validation of the STIS NDA,B,C long slits for echelle use now make feasible NUV E230H measurements (e.g., of key chromospheric tracers Mg II 2800 and Mg I 2852) which heretofore were not practical in a long-term program of this nature.

Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stager, J. Curt; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Conway, Declan; Verburg, Piet; Mason, Peter J.

2007-08-01

An association of high sunspot numbers with rises in the level of Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the focus of many investigations and vigorous debate during the last century. In this paper, we show that peaks in the ~11-year sunspot cycle were accompanied by Victoria level maxima throughout the 20th century, due to the occurrence of positive rainfall anomalies ~1 year before solar maxima. Similar patterns also occurred in at least five other East African lakes, which indicates that these sunspot-rainfall relationships were broadly regional in scale. Although irradiance fluctuations associated with the sunspot cycle are weak, their effects on tropical rainfall could be amplified through interactions with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation systems, including ENSO. If this Sun-rainfall relationship persists in the future, then sunspot cycles can be used for long-term prediction of precipitation anomalies and associated outbreaks of insect-borne disease in much of East Africa. In that case, unusually wet rainy seasons and Rift Valley Fever epidemics should occur a year or so before the next solar maximum, which is expected to occur in 2011-2012 AD.

Analysis of type 3 solar radio bursts observed at kilometric wavelengths from the OGO-5 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, H.

1971-01-01

Research was conducted to analyze the data on solar radio bursts obtained by the OGO-5 satellite. Since the wavelengths corresponding to the three lowest frequencies of observations exceeded one kilometer, the bursts detected in those channels were designated as kilometer-waves. The data search covered approximately 9200 hours between March 1968 and February 1970, and included the maximum of solar cycle No. 20. The study concentrated on 64 Type 3 solar radio events reaching frequencies equal or lower than 0.35 MHz. This selection criteria led to the choice of the most intense radio events. Measurements included: times of start, times of decay, and amplitudes of the 64 events. The consistency of the results, within the accuracy of the measurements, lends support to some of the assumptions made for the analysis, notably, the validity of the local plasma hypothesis, the constancy of the exciter particles velocity, and spiral shape of their trajectory.

Space Shuttle Projects

NASA Image and Video Library

1984-04-01

Launched April 6, 1984, one of the goals of the STS-41C mission was to repair the damaged free-flying Solar Maximum Mission Satellite (SMMS), or Solar Max. The original plan was to make an excursion out to the SMMS and capture it for necessary repairs. Pictured is Mission Specialist George Nelson approaching the damaged satellite in a capture attempt. This attempted feat was unsuccessful. It was necessary to capture the satellite via the orbiter's Remote Manipulator System (RMS) and secure it into the cargo bay in order to perform the repairs, which included replacing the altitude control system and the coronograph/polarimeter electronics box. The SMMS was originally launched into space via the Delta Rocket in February 1980, with the purpose to provide a means of studying solar flares during the most active part of the current sunspot cycle. Dr. Einar Tandberg-Hanssen of Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Sciences Lab was principal investigator for the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter, one of the seven experiments of the Solar Max.

Effects of Increasing Drag on Conjunction Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan Clayton; McKinley, David P.

2010-01-01

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.

How Large Scales Flows May Influence Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2004-01-01

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle and play important roles in shaping the Sun's magnetic field. Differential rotation amplifies the magnetic field through its shearing action and converts poloidal field into toroidal field. Poleward meridional flow near the surface carries magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles at about the time of solar maximum. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux back toward the lower latitudes where it erupts through the surface to form tilted active regions that convert toroidal fields into oppositely directed poloidal fields. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun's rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain both the differential rotation and the meridional circulation. These convective motions can also influence solar activity directly by shaping the magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2011-09-01

As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

Solution for Direct Solar Impingement Problem on Landsat-7 ETM+ Cooler Door During Cooler Outgas in Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Michael K.

1999-01-01

There was a thermal anomaly of the Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) radiative cooler cold stage during the cooler outgas phase in flight. With the cooler door in the outgas position and the outgas heaters enabled, the cold stage temperature increased to a maximum of 323 K when the spacecraft was in the sunlight, which was warmer than the 316.3 K upper set point of the outgas heater controller on the cold stage. Also, the outgas heater cycled off when the cold stage was warming up to 323 K. A corrective action was taken before the attitude of the spacecraft was changed during the first week in flight. One orbit before the attitude was changed, the outgas heaters were disabled to cool off the cold stage. The cold stage temperature increase was strongly dependent on the spacecraft roll and yaw. It provided evidence that direct solar radiation entered the gap between the cooler door and cooler shroud. There was a concern that the direct solar radiation could cause polymerization of hydrocarbons, which could contaminate the cooler and lead to a thermal short. After outgas with the cooler door in the outgas position for seven days, the cooler door was changed to the fully open position. With the cooler door fully open, the maximum cold stage temperature was 316.3 K when the spacecraft was in the sunlight, and the duty cycle of the outgas heater in the eclipse was the same as that in the sunlight. It provided more evidence that direct solar radiation had entered the gap between the cooler door and cooler shroud. Cooler outgas continued for seven more days, with the cooler door fully open. The corrective actions had prevented overheating of the cold stage and cold focal plane array (CFPA), which could damage these two components. They also minimized the risk of contamination on the cold stage, which could lead to a thermal short.

Peculiarities of cosmic ray modulation in the solar minimum 23/24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alania, M. V.; Modzelewska, R.; Wawrzynczak, A.

2014-06-01

We study changes of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity for the ending period of the solar cycle 23 and the beginning of the solar cycle 24 using neutron monitors experimental data. We show that an increase of the GCR intensity in 2009 is generally related with decrease of the solar wind velocity U, the strength B of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the drift in negative (A < 0) polarity epoch. We present that temporal changes of rigidity dependence of the GCR intensity variation, before reaching maximum level in 2009 and after it, do not noticeably differ from each other. The rigidity spectrum of the GCR intensity variations calculated based on neutron monitors data (for rigidities > 10 GV) is hard in the minimum and near-minimum epoch. We do not recognize any nonordinary changes in the physical mechanism of modulation of the GCR intensity in the rigidity range of GCR particles to which neutron monitors respond. We compose 2-D nonstationary model of transport equation to describe variations of the GCR intensity for 1996-2012 including the A > 0 (1996-2001) and the A < 0 (2002-2012) periods; diffusion coefficient of cosmic rays for rigidity 10-15 GV is increased by 30% in 2009 (A < 0) comparing with 1996 (A > 0). We believe that the proposed model is relatively realistic, and obtained results are satisfactorily compatible with neutron monitors data.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

Synoptic maps of heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness from 1974-1985 as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1992-01-01

We display the electron Thomson scattering intensity of the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps. The technique extrapolates the brightness information from each photometer sector near the Sun and constructs a latitude/longitude map at a given solar height. These data are unique in that they give a determination of heliospheric structures out of the ecliptic above the primary region of solar wind acceleration. The spatial extent of bright, co-rotating heliospheric structures is readily observed in the data north and south of the ecliptic plane where the Helios photometer coverage is most complete. Because the technique has been used on the complete Helios data set from 1974 to 1985, we observe the change in our synoptic maps with solar cycle. Bright structures are concentrated near the heliospheric equator at solar minimum, while at solar maximum bright structures are found at far higher heliographic latitudes. A comparison of these maps with other forms of synoptic data are shown for two available intervals.

Implications of solar p-mode frequency shifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldreich, Peter; Murray, Norman; Willette, Gregory; Kumar, Pawan

1991-01-01

An expression is derived that relates solar p-mode frequency shifts to changes in the entropy and magnetic field of the sun. The frequency variations result from changes in path length and propagation speed. Path length changes dominate for entropy perturbations, and propagation speed changes dominate for most types of magnetic field peturbations. The p-mode frequencies increased along with solar activity between 1986 and 1989; these frequency shifts exhibited a rapid rise with increasing frequency followed by a precipitous drop. The positive component of the shifts can be accounted for by variations of the mean square magnetic field strength in the vicinity of the photosphere. The magnetic stress perturbation decays above the top of the convection zone on a length scale comparable to the pressure scale height and grows gradually with depth below. The presence of a resonance in the chromospheric cavity means that the transition layer maintains enough coherence to partially reflect acoustic waves even near cycle maximum.

Space radiation incident on SATS missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stassinopoulos, E. G.

1973-01-01

A special orbital radiation study was conducted in order to evaluate mission encountered energetic particle fluxes. This information is to be supplied to the project subsystem engineers for their guidance in designing flight hardware to withstand the expected radiation levels. Flux calculations were performed for a set of 20 nominal trajectories placed at several altitudes and inclinations. Temporal variations in the ambient electron environment were considered and partially accounted for. Magnetic field calculations were performed with a current field model, extrapolated to the tentative SATS launch epoch with linear time terms. Orbital flux integrations ware performed with the latest proton and electron environment models, using new computational methods. The results are presented in graphical and tabular form. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission at selected integral energies ranging from 10 to 100 Mev, calculated for a year of maximum solar activity during the next solar cycle.

A joined model for solar dynamo and differential rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitchatinov, L. L.; Nepomnyashchikh, A. A.

2017-05-01

A model for the solar dynamo, consistent in global flow and numerical method employed with the differential rotation model, is developed. The magnetic turbulent diffusivity is expressed in terms of the entropy gradient, which is controlled by the model equations. The magnetic Prandtl number and latitudinal profile of the alpha-effect are specified by fitting the computed period of the activity cycle and the equatorial symmetry of magnetic fields to observations. Then, the instants of polar field reversals and time-latitude diagrams of the fields also come into agreement with observations. The poloidal field has a maximum amplitude of about 10 Gs in the polar regions. The toroidal field of several thousand Gauss concentrates near the base of the convection zone and is transported towards the equator by the meridional flow. The model predicts a value of about 1037 erg for the total magnetic energy of large-scale fields in the solar convection zone.

Variation of the Solar He I 10830 A Line: 1977 - 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, J. W.

1981-01-01

Daily measurements of the equivalent width of the 10830 A He I line integrated over the visible disk show: (1) an increase from about 32 to about 74 mA in the monthly mean values from the minimum to the maximum of the current solar cycle; (2) the monthly mean values are more smoothly varying than most other indices of solar activity; (3) rotation modulates the daily values in a highly variable manner with amplitudes as large as plus or minus 20%; (4) the apparent synodic rotation period is 29 days rather than the expected 27 days associated with active regions; (5) despite great differences in the appearance of the sun in 3933 A Ca I and 10830 A He I, the central intensity of the former correlates with the equivalent width of the latter with a value r = 0.97.

The SATIRE-S model and why getting solar cycle spectral irradiance trends correct is so important

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William; Haigh, Joanna; Krivova, Natalie; Unruh, Yvonne; Solanki, Sami

2014-05-01

There is currently a wide range of potential spectral solar irradiance (SSI) solar cycle (SC) amplitudes suggested by observations and models. Therefore, SSI SC changes are still not fully understood. The magnitude of the SC flux changes has a direct impact upon the temperature and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere. To contribute to an understanding of the solar-climate connection, it is critical that we, as the solar community, communicate effectively with the climate community, providing uncertainties in SSI data and assessments of possible SSI options. We present the SATIRE-S reconstruction in the context of these SSI datasets. SATIRE-S is a physically based, consistent SSI reconstruction over the last three solar cycles. It shows different SC spectral variability at all wavelengths compared to the NRLSSI model, widely used in climate research. Most-importantly, SC changes in the ultra-violet (UV) can be twice as large in SATIRE-S as NRLSSI. Typically NRLSSI provides a lower limit of SC SSI UV variability. SORCE satellite observations provide SC magnitudes at the upper limit of variability, exceeding that of SATIRE-S by a factor of three at some UV wavelengths. There is currently no way to be certain if any of these three SSI datasets, or others, is correct. We also present the SSI datasets in terms of their impact on stratospheric ozone, within a 2D atmospheric model, as an example of why it is important to get SC changes correct. Using NRLSSI results in the 2D atmospheric model, we see a decrease in ozone concentration at all altitudes from solar maximum to minimum. SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE observations instead show an increase in ozone concentration in the mesosphere. The magnitude of the increase in the mesosphere when using SOLSTICE also depends greatly upon the version of the data, which means that studies using different data versions of SOLSTICE may lead to different conclusions. These results highlight why an accurate understanding of SC SSI changes, and their uncertainties, are essential for the climate community that uses our work.

The solar wind neon abundance observed with ACE/SWICS and ULYSSES/SWICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shearer, Paul; Raines, Jim M.; Lepri, Susan T.

Using in situ ion spectrometry data from ACE/SWICS, we determine the solar wind Ne/O elemental abundance ratio and examine its dependence on wind speed and evolution with the solar cycle. We find that Ne/O is inversely correlated with wind speed, is nearly constant in the fast wind, and correlates strongly with solar activity in the slow wind. In fast wind streams with speeds above 600 km s{sup –1}, we find Ne/O = 0.10 ± 0.02, in good agreement with the extensive polar observations by Ulysses/SWICS. In slow wind streams with speeds below 400 km s{sup –1}, Ne/O ranges from amore » low of 0.12 ± 0.02 at solar maximum to a high of 0.17 ± 0.03 at solar minimum. These measurements place new and significant empirical constraints on the fractionation mechanisms governing solar wind composition and have implications for the coronal and photospheric abundances of neon and oxygen. The results are made possible by a new data analysis method that robustly identifies rare elements in the measured ion spectra. The method is also applied to Ulysses/SWICS data, which confirms the ACE observations and extends our view of solar wind neon into the three-dimensional heliosphere.« less

Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

2016-04-01

On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak.

Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L.

2017-09-01

We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Impacts of Stratospheric Dynamics on Atmospheric Behavior from the Ground to Space Solar Minimum and Solar Maximum

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-15

from the ground to space solar minimum and solar maximum 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER BAA-76-11-01 5b. GRANT NUMBER N00173-12-1G010 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...atmospheric behavior from the ground to space under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions (Contract No.: N00173-12-1-G010 NRL) Project Summary...Dynamical response to solar radiative forcing is a crucial and poorly understood mechanisms. We propose to study the impacts of large dynamical events

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Yamauchi, Yohei; Kondo, Tetsuro

2001-01-01

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation UPS) at three microwave frequencies 2, 8, and 22GHz, were carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34-micro farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations was to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars, 3C279 and 3C273B, were used for the Kashima IPS observations at 2 and 8GHz, and a water-vapor maser source, IRC20431, was used for the IPS observations at 22GHz. Solar wind speeds derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (Rs) from the sun. The properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from the Kashima data were found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with the coronal holes were found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declined. Nevertheless, the Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Yamauchi, Yohei; Kondo, Tetsuro

2001-01-01

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) at three microwave frequencies; 2 GHz, 8 GHz and 22 GHz have been carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34 m farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations is to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars; 3C279 and 3C273B were used for Kashima IPS observations at 2 GHz and 8 GHz, and a water vapor maser source, IRC20431 was used for the IPS observations at 22 GHz. Solar wind velocities derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (R(sub s)) from the sun. Properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from Kashima data are found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with coronal holes are found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declines. Nevertheless, Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Solar particle event predictions for manned Mars missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heckman, Gary

1986-01-01

Manned space missions to Mars require consideration of the effects of high radiation doses produced by solar particle events (SPE). Without some provision for protection, the radiation doses from such events can exceed standards for maximum exposure and may be life threatening. Several alternative ways of providing protection require a capability for predicting SPE in time to take some protective actions. The SPE may occur at any time during the eleven year solar cycle so that two year missions cannot be scheduled to insure avoiding them although they are less likely to occur at solar minimum. The present forecasts are sufficiently accurate to use for setting alert modes but are not accurate enough to make yes/no decisions that have major mission operational impacts. Forecasts made for one to two year periods can only be done as probabilistic forecasts where there is a chance of SPE occurring. These are current capabilities but are not likely to change significantly by the year 2000 with the exception of some improvement in the one to ten day forecasts. The effects of SPE are concentrated in solar longitudes near where their parent solar flares occur, which will require a manned Mars mission to carry its own small solar telescope to monitor the development of potentially dangerous solar activity. The preferred telescope complement includes a solar X-ray imager, a hydrogen-alpha scanner, and a solar magnetograph.

The extreme solar cosmic ray particle event on 20 January 2005 and its influence on the radiation dose rate at aircraft altitude.

PubMed

Bütikofer, R; Flückiger, E O; Desorgher, L; Moser, M R

2008-03-01

In January 2005 toward the end of solar activity cycle 23 the Sun was very active. Between 15 and 20 January 2005, the solar active region NOAA AR 10720 produced five powerful solar flares. In association with this major solar activity several pronounced variations in the ground-level cosmic ray intensity were observed. The fifth of these flares (X7.1) produced energetic solar cosmic rays that caused a giant increase in the count rates of the ground-based cosmic ray detectors (neutron monitors). At southern polar neutron monitor stations the increase of the count rate reached several thousand percent. From the recordings of the worldwide network of neutron monitors, we determined the characteristics of the solar particle flux near Earth. In the initial phase of the event, the solar cosmic ray flux near Earth was extremely anisotropic. The energy spectrum of the solar cosmic rays was fairly soft during the main and the decay phase. We investigated also the flux of different secondary particle species in the atmosphere and the radiation dosage at flight altitude. Our analysis shows a maximum increment of the effective dose rate due to solar cosmic rays in the south polar region around 70 degrees S and 130 degrees E at flight altitude of almost three orders of magnitude.

Evidence for Solar-Cycle Forcing and Secular Variation in the Armagh Observatory Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1998-01-01

A prominent feature of previous long-term temperature studies has been the appearance of warming since the 1880s, this often being taken as evidence for anthropogenic-induced global warming. In this investigation, the long-term, annual, mean temperature record (1844-1992) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, North Ireland), a set of temperature data based on maximum and minimum thermometers that predates the 1880s and correlates well with northern hemispheric and global standards, is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar-cycle forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both appear to be embedded within the Armagh data. Removal of these effects, each contributing about 8% to the overall reduction in variance, yields residuals that are randomly distributed. Application of the 10-year moving average to the residuals, furthermore, strongly suggests that the behavior of the residuals is episodic, inferring that (for extended periods of time) temperatures at Armagh sometimes were warmer or cooler (than expected), while at other times they were stable. Comparison of cyclic averages of annual mean temperatures against the lengths of the associated Hale cycles (i.e., the length of two, sequentially numbered, even-odd sunspot cycle pairs) strongly suggests that the temperatures correlate inversely (r = -0.886 at less than 2% level of significance) against the length of the associated Hale cycle. Because sunspot cycle 22 ended in 1996, the present Hale cycle probably will be shorter than average, implying that temperatures at Armagh over this Hale cycle will be warmer (about 9.31 q 0.23 C at the 90% confidence level) than average (= 9.00 C).

A strategy of combining SILAR with solvothermal process for In2S3 sensitized quantum dot-sensitized solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peizhi; Tang, Qunwei; Ji, Chenming; Wang, Haobo

2015-12-01

Pursuit of an efficient strategy for quantum dot-sensitized photoanode has been a persistent objective for enhancing photovoltaic performances of quantum dot-sensitized solar cell (QDSC). We present here the fabrication of the indium sulfide (In2S3) quantum dot-sensitized titanium dioxide (TiO2) photoanode by combining successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction (SILAR) with solvothermal processes. The resultant QDSC consists of an In2S3 sensitized TiO2 photoanode, a liquid polysulfide electrolyte, and a Co0.85Se counter electrode. The optimized QDSC with photoanode prepared with the help of a SILAR method at 20 deposition cycles and solvothermal method yields a maximum power conversion efficiency of 1.39%.

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V.

2012-01-01

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

How Much Energy Can Be Stored in Solar Active Region Magnetic Fields?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and very fast coronal mass ejections usually originate in active regions on the Sun. The energy that powers these events is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. While coronal magnetic fields are not in general force-free, active regions have very strong magnetic fields and at low coronal heights the plasma beta is therefore very small, making the field (in equilibrium) essentially force-free. The Aly-Sturrock theorem shows that the energy of a fully force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored: the maximum free energy (MFE) is the difference between the open field energy and the potential field energy of the active region. In thermodynamic MHD simulations of a major eruption (the July 14, 2000 'Bastille' day event) and a modest event (February 13, 2009, we have found that the MFE indeed bounds the energy stored prior to eruption. We compute the MFE for major eruptive events in cycles 23 and 24 to investigate the maximum amount of energy that can be stored in solar active regions.Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF.

Digitized archive of the Kodaikanal images: Representative results of solar cycle variation from sunspot area determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindra, B.; Priya, T. G.; Amareswari, K.; Priyal, M.; Nazia, A. A.; Banerjee, D.

2013-02-01

Context. Sunspots have been observed since Galileo Galilei invented the telescope. Later, sunspot drawings have been upgraded to image storage using photographic plate in the second half of nineteenth century. These photographic images are valuable data resources for studying long-term changes in the solar magnetic field and its influence on the Earth's climate and weather. Aims: Digitized photographic plates cannot be used directly for the scientific analysis. It requires certain steps of calibration and processing before using them for extracting any useful information. The final data can be used to study solar cycle variations over several cycles. Methods: We digitized more than 100 years of white-light images stored in photographic plates and films that are available at Kodaikanal observatory starting from 1904. The images were digitized using a 4k × 4k format CCD-camera-based digitizer unit.The digitized images were calibrated for relative plate density and aligned in such a way that the solar north is in upward direction. A semi-automated sunspot detection technique was used to identify the sunspots on the digitized images. Results: In addition to describing the calibration procedure and availability of the data, we here present preliminary results on the sunspot area measurements and their variation with time. The results show that the white-light images have a uniform spatial resolution throughout the 90 years of observations. However, the contrast of the images decreases from 1968 onwards. The images are circular and do not show any major geometrical distortions. The measured monthly averaged sunspot areas closely match the Greenwich sunspot area over the four solar cycles studied here. The yearly averaged sunspot area shows a high degree of correlation with the Greenwich sunspot area. Though the monthly averaged sunspot number shows a good correlation with the monthly averaged sunspot areas, there is a slight anti-correlation between the two during solar maximum. Conclusions: The Kodaikanal data archive is hosted at http://kso.iiap.res.in. The long time sequence of the Kodaikanal white-light images provides a consistent data set for sunspot areas and other proxies. Many studies can be performed using Kodaikanal data alone without requiring intercalibration between different data sources.

Power Generation Potential and Cost of a Roof Top Solar PV System in Kathmandu, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanjel, N.; Zhand, A.

2017-12-01

The paper presents a comparative study of the 3 most used solar PV module technologies in Nepal, which are Si-mono-crystalline, Si-poly-crystalline and Si-amorphous. The aim of the paper is to present and discuss the recorded Global Solar Radiation, received in the Kathmandu valley by three different, Si-mono-crystalline, Si-poly-crystalline and Si-amorphous calibrated solar cell pyranometers and to propose the best-suited solar PV module technology for roof top solar PV systems inside the Kathmandu valley. Data recorded over the course of seven months, thus covering most of the seasonal meteorological conditions determining Kathmandu valley's global solar radiation reception are presented. The results indicate that the Si-amorphous pyranometer captured 1.56% more global solar radiation than the Si-mono-crystalline and 18.4% more than Si-poly-crystalline pyranometer over the course of seven months. Among the three pyranometer technologies the maximum and minimum cell temperature was measured by the Si-mono-crystalline pyranometer. Following the technical data and discussion, an economical analysis, using the versatile software tool PVSYST V5.01is used to calculate the life cycle costs of a 1kW roof top solar PV RAPS system, with battery storage, and a 1kW roof top solar PV grid connected system with no energy storage facility, through simulations, using average recorded global solar radiation data for the KTM valley and investigated market values for each solar PV module and peripheral equipment costs.

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk

2014-11-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Origin and Properties of Quiet-time 0.11–1.28 MeV Nucleon{sup −1} Heavy-ion Population Near 1 au

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; Ebert, R. W.

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer /Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer near 1 au, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2015 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following. (1) The number of quiet hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 82% of the time. (2) The composition of themore » quiet-time suprathermal heavy-ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum. (3) The heavy-ion (C–Fe) spectra exhibit suprathermal tails at energies of 0.11–0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.40 to 2.97. Fe spectra soften (steepen, i.e., spectral index increases) smoothly with increasing energies compared with Fe, indicating a rollover behavior of Fe at higher energies (0.45–1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}). (4) Spectral indices of Fe and O do not appear to exhibit clear solar cycle dependence. (2) and (3) imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events. We discuss the implications of these extended observations in the context of the current understanding of the suprathermal ion population near 1 au.« less

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

Variability of the Martian thermospheric temperatures during the last 7 Martian Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Galindo, Francisco; Lopez-Valverde, Miguel Angel; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, François

2014-05-01

The temperatures and densities in the Martian upper atmosphere have a significant influence over the different processes producing atmospheric escape. A good knowledge of the thermosphere and its variability is thus necessary in order to better understand and quantify the atmospheric loss to space and the evolution of the planet. Different global models have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the Martian thermosphere, usually considering three solar scenarios (solar minimum, solar medium and solar maximum conditions) to take into account the solar cycle variability. However, the variability of the solar activity within the simulated period of time is not usually considered in these models. We have improved the description of the UV solar flux included on the General Circulation Model for Mars developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-MGCM) in order to include its observed day-to-day variability. We have used the model to simulate the thermospheric variability during Martian Years 24 to 30, using realistic UV solar fluxes and dust opacities. The model predicts and interannual variability of the temperatures in the upper thermosphere that ranges from about 50 K during the aphelion to up to 150 K during perihelion. The seasonal variability of temperatures due to the eccentricity of the Martian orbit is modified by the variability of the solar flux within a given Martian year. The solar rotation cycle produces temperature oscillations of up to 30 K. We have also studied the response of the modeled thermosphere to the global dust storms in Martian Year 25 and Martian Year 28. The atmospheric dynamics are significantly modified by the global dust storms, which induces significant changes in the thermospheric temperatures. The response of the model to the presence of both global dust storms is in good agreement with previous modeling results (Medvedev et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013). As expected, the simulated ionosphere is also sensitive to the variability of the solar activity. Acknowledgemnt: Francisco González-Galindo is funded by a CSIC JAE-Doc contract financed by the European Social Fund

Reading The Sun: A Three Dimensional Visual Model of The Solar Environment During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carranza-fulmer, T. L.; Moldwin, M.

2014-12-01

The sun is a powerful force that has proven to our society that it has a large impact on our lives. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of awareness on how the sun is capable of affecting Earth. The over all idea of "Reading The Sun" installation is to help demonstrate how the sun impacts the Earth, by compiling various data sources from satellites (SOHO, SDO, and STERO) with solar and solar wind models (MAS and ENLIL) to create a comprehensive three dimensional display of the solar environment. It focuses on the current solar maximum of solar cycle 24 and a CME that impacted Earth's magnetic field on February 27, 2014, which triggered geomagnetic storms around the Earth's poles. The CME was an after-effect of a class X4.9 solar flare, which was released from the sun on February 25, 2014. "Reading The Sun" is a 48" x 48" x 48" hanging model of the sun with color coded open opposing magnetic field lines along with various layers of the solar atmosphere, the heliospheric current sheet, and the inner planets. At the center of the xyz axis is the sun with the open magnetic field lines and the heliospheric current sheet permeating inner planetary space. The xyz axes are color coded to represent various types of information with corresponding visual images for the viewer to be able to read the model. Along the z-axis are three colors (yellow, orange, and green) that represent the different layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona) that correspond to three satellite images in various spectrums related to a CME and Solar Flare and the xy-plane shows where the inner planets are in relation to the sun. The exhibit in which "Reading The Sun "is being displayed is called, The Rotation of Language at the Wheather Again Gallery in Rockaway, New York. The intent of the exhibit is to both celebrate as well as present a cautionary tale on the ability of human language to spark and ignite the individual and collective imagination towards an experience simultaneously approaching the utopian as well as the dystopian.

A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer

2009-08-01

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2014-09-01

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula

2008-01-01

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Webb, D. F.; Zhang, J.; Berdichevsky, B. D.; Biesecker, D. A.; Kasper, J. C.; Kataoka, R.; Steinberg, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.; Wu, C.-C.;

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range based on the ratio of values on rainy days and days without rain, respectively. For assessing the impact of our correction, we simulated the ecosystem behaviour using the climate data from Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla with the mechanistic ecosystem model Biome-BGC. Differences in terms of the carbon, nitrogen and water cycle were subsequently analysed and discussed.

Drift effects on the galactic cosmic ray modulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laurenza, M.; Storini, M.; Vecchio, A.

2014-02-01

Cosmic ray (CR) modulation is driven by both solar activity and drift effects in the heliosphere, although their role is only qualitatively understood as it is difficult to connect the CR variations to their sources. In order to address this problem, the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been applied to the CR intensity, recorded by three neutron monitors at different rigidities (Climax, Rome, and Huancayo-Haleakala (HH)), the sunspot area, as a proxy for solar activity, the heliospheric magnetic field magnitude, directly related to CR propagation, and the tilt angle (TA) of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), which characterizes drift effectsmore » on CRs. A prominent periodicity at ∼six years is detected in all the analyzed CR data sets and it is found to be highly correlated with changes in the HCS inclination at the same timescale. In addition, this variation is found to be responsible for the main features of the CR modulation during periods of low solar activity, such as the flat (peaked) maximum in even (odd) solar cycles. The contribution of the drift effects to the global Galactic CR modulation has been estimated to be between 30% and 35%, depending on the CR particle energy. Nevertheless, the importance of the drift contribution is generally reduced in periods nearing the sunspot maximum. Finally, threshold values of ∼40°, ∼45°, and >55° have been derived for the TA, critical for the CR modulation at the Climax, Rome, and HH rigidity thresholds, respectively.« less

Role of the Coronal Alfvén Speed in Modulating the Solar-wind Helium Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.-M.

2016-12-01

The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ˜0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ˜0.01 at solar minimum to ˜0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995-2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v A in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v A near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v A and the relative speed of α-particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

2017-06-01

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2-NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m-2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of -0.04 W m-2. In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of -0.35 K day-1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (-1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (-3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day-1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ˜ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry-climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reedy, R. C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity.

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

The causes of geomagnetic storms during solar maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Gonzalez, Walter D.

1994-01-01

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. In investigating the causes of geomagnetic storms occurring during solar maximum, the following topics are discussed: solar phenomena; types of solar wind; magnetic reconnection and magnetic storms; an interplanetary example; and future space physics missions.

Simulating Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Magnetic Fields using a Potential Field Source Surface Model Coupled with a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, A.; Dikpati, M.; Burkepile, J.; de Toma, G.

2013-12-01

The structure of the Sun's corona varies with solar cycle, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. Why does this pattern occur? It is widely accepted that large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields, which are most likely generated by the dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential field source surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation and above the photosphere these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona by using a potential field source surface model. Under the assumption of axisymmetry, the large-scale poloidal fields can be written in terms of the curl of a vector potential. Since from the photosphere and above the magnetic diffusivity is essentially infinite, the evolution of the vector potential is given by Laplace's Equation, the solution of which is obtained in the form of a first order Associated Legendre Polynomial. By taking linear combinations of these polynomial terms, we find solutions that match more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986-1991), we compute the coefficients of the Associated Legendre Polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observation. We reproduce some previous results that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but that this term fades with the progress of the cycle and higher order multipole terms begin to dominate. We find that the amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same in the two limbs, indicating that there is some phi dependence. Furthermore, by comparing the solar minimum corona during the past three minima (1986, 1996, and 2008), we find that, while both the 1986 and 1996 minima were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, as there was departure from a dipole. In order to investigate the physical cause of this departure from dipole, we implement north-south asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our model, and find that such n/s asymmetry in solar cycle could be one of the reasons for this departure. This work is partially supported by NASA's LWS grant with award number NNX08AQ34G. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Proceedings of the SMRM Degradation Study Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The proceedings of the Solar Maximum Repair Mission Degradation Study Workshop, held at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland on May 9 to 10, 1985 are contained. The results of tests and studies of the returned Solar Maximum Mission hardware and materials are reported. Specifically, the workshop was concerned with the effects of four years' exposure to a low-Earth orbit environment. To provide a background for the reported findings, the summary includes a short description of the Solar Maximum Mission and the Solar Maximum Repair Mission.

Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C.

2017-04-01

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.

A Novel Technique for Maximum Power Point Tracking of a Photovoltaic Based on Sensing of Array Current Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Zoghby, Helmy M.; Bendary, Ahmed F.

2016-10-01

Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is now widely used method in increasing the photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. The conventional MPPT methods have many problems concerning the accuracy, flexibility and efficiency. The MPP depends on the PV temperature and solar irradiation that randomly varied. In this paper an artificial intelligence based controller is presented through implementing of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to obtain maximum power from PV. The ANFIS inputs are the temperature and cell current, and the output is optimal voltage at maximum power. During operation the trained ANFIS senses the PV current using suitable sensor and also senses the temperature to determine the optimal operating voltage that corresponds to the current at MPP. This voltage is used to control the boost converter duty cycle. The MATLAB simulation results shows the effectiveness of the ANFIS with sensing the PV current in obtaining the MPPT from the PV.

THE EFFECT OF ACTIVITY-RELATED MERIDIONAL FLOW MODULATION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOLAR POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, J.; Cameron, R. H.; Schmitt, D.

We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar caps. We carried out simulations of synthetic solar cycles with a flux transport model, which follows the cyclic evolution of the surface field determined by flux emergence and advective transport by near-surface flows. In each hemisphere, an axisymmetric band of latitudinal flows converging toward the central latitude of the activity belt was superposed onto the background poleward meridional flow. The overall effect of the flow perturbation is tomore » reduce the latitudinal separation of the magnetic polarities of a bipolar magnetic region and thus diminish its contribution to the polar field. As a result, the polar field maximum reached around cycle activity minimum is weakened by the presence of the meridional flow perturbation. For a flow perturbation consistent with helioseismic observations, the polar field is reduced by about 18% compared to the case without inflows. If the amplitude of the flow perturbation depends on the cycle strength, its effect on the polar field provides a nonlinearity that could contribute to limiting the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton type dynamo.« less

On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay

2014-05-01

It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the variations of CR in the 11 year solar cycle. Checking an assumptions (ii), it is found that during the period from 1973 to 2010, the twenty earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 occurred in the seismic areas, where geomagnetic force lines L=2.0 -2.2 are loaned into the earth's crust. Surprisingly, all of these strong earthquakes occurred only at declining phase of the 11 year solar cycle, while were absent at ascending phase. This result proves an expectation (ii) and can be taken into account for forecasting strong earthquake occurrence in the seismic areas where the crust is riddled with geomagnetic field lines L= ~ 2.0. In conclusion: the results support a modern idea that earthquake occurrence is related to operation of global electric circuit, but more research are required to study this problem in more details.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

THE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS 1992–2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jaeggli, S. A.; Norton, A. A., E-mail: sarah.jaeggli@nasa.gov

The purpose of this Letter is to address a blindspot in our knowledge of solar active region (AR) statistics. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published results showing the variation of the Mount Wilson magnetic classifications as a function of solar cycle based on modern observations. We show statistics for all ARs reported in the daily Solar Region Summary from 1992 January 1 to 2015 December 31. We find that the α and β class ARs (including all sub-groups, e.g., βγ, βδ) make up fractions of approximately 20% and 80% of the sample, respectively. This fraction ismore » relatively constant during high levels of activity; however, an increase in the α fraction to about 35% and and a decrease in the β fraction to about 65% can be seen near each solar minimum and are statistically significant at the 2σ level. Over 30% of all ARs observed during the years of solar maxima were appended with the classifications γ and/or δ, while these classifications account for only a fraction of a percent during the years near the solar minima. This variation in the AR types indicates that the formation of complex ARs may be due to the pileup of frequent emergence of magnetic flux during solar maximum, rather than the emergence of complex, monolithic flux structures.« less

Changes in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling with solar cycle, season, and time relative to stream interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherron, Robert L.; Baker, Daniel N.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Hsu, T.-S.; Kissinger, J.; Chu, X.

2013-07-01

Geomagnetic activity depends on a variety of factors including solar zenith angle, solar UV, strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, speed and density of the solar wind, orientation of the Earth’s dipole, distance of the Earth from Sun, occurrence of CMEs and CIRs, and possibly other parameters. We have investigated some of these using state-dependant linear prediction filters. For a given state a prediction filter transforms a coupling function such as rectified solar wind electric field (VBs) to an output like the auroral electrojet index (AL). The area of this filter calculated from the sum of the filter coefficients measures the strength of the coupling. When the input and output are steady for a time longer than the duration of the filter the ratio of output to input is equal to this area. We find coupling strength defined in this way for Es=VBs to AL (and AU) is weakest at solar maximum and strongest at solar minimum. AL coupling displays a semiannual variation being weakest at the solstices and strongest at the equinoxes. AU coupling has only an annual variation being strongest at summer solstice. AL and AU coupling also vary with time relative to a stream interface. Es coupling is weaker after the interface, but ULF coupling is stronger. Total prediction efficiency remains about constant at the interface. The change in coupling strength with the solar cycle can be explained as an effect of more frequent saturation of the polar cap potential causing a smaller ratio of AL to Es. Stronger AL coupling at the equinoxes possibly indicates some process that makes magnetic reconnection less efficient when the dipole axis is tilted along the Earth-Sun line. Strong AU coupling at summer solstice is likely due to high conductivity in northern summer. Coupling changes at a stream interface are correlated with the presence of strong wave activity in ground and satellite measurements and may be an artifact of the method by which solar wind data are propagated.

Measurements of the earth radiation budget from satellites during the first GARP global experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonder Haar, T. H.; Campbell, G. G.; Smith, E. A.; Arking, A.; Coulson, K.; Hickey, J.; House, F.; Ingersoll, A.; Jacobowitz, H.; Smith, L.

1981-01-01

Radiation budget data (which will aid in climate model development) and solar constant measurements (both to be used for the study of long term climate change and interannual seasonal weather variability) are presented, obtained during Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 satellite flights, using wide-field-of-view, scanner, and black cavity detectors. Data on the solar constant, described as a function of the date of measurement, are given. The unweighed mean amounts to 1377 + or - 20 per sq Wm, with a standard deviation of 8 per sq Wm. The new solar data are combined with earlier measurements, and it is suggested that the total absolute energy output of the sun is a minimum at 'solar maximum' and vice versa. Attention is given to the measurements of the net radiation budget, the planetary albedo, and the infrared radiant exitance. The annual and semiannual cycles of normal variability explain most of the variance of energy exchange between the earth and space. Examination of separate ocean and atmospheric energy budgets implies a net continent-ocean region energy exchange.

Development of a Long-Life-Cycle, Highly Water-Resistant Solar Reflective Retrofit Roof Coating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polyzos, Georgios; Hunter, Scott; Sharma, Jaswinder

2016-03-04

Highly water-resistant and solar-reflective coatings for low-slope roofs are potentially among the most economical retrofit approaches to thermal management of the building envelope. Therefore, they represent a key building technology research program within the Department of Energy. Research efforts in industry and the Department of Energy are currently under way to increase long-term solar reflectance on a number of fronts. These include new polymer coatings technologies to provide longer-lasting solar reflectivity and improved test methodologies to predict long-term soiling and microbial performance. The focus on long-term improvements in soiling and microbial resistance for maximum reflectance does not address the singlemore » most important factor impacting the long-term sustainability of low-slope roof coatings: excellent water resistance. The hydrophobic character of asphaltic roof products makes them uniquely suitable for water resistance, but their low albedo and poor exterior durability are disadvantages. A reflective coating that maintains very high water resistance with increased long-term resistance to soiling and microbial activity would provide additional energy savings and extend roof service life.« less

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

SuperDARN observations of an unusually contracted ionospheric convection pattern during the recent deep solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2012-04-01

We present a long term study, from 1995 - 2011, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during the solar maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum lead to an average HMB location that was further poleward than previous solar cycles. We also calculated the open-closed field line boundary (OCB) from auroral images during the years 2000-2002 and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~6°. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global auroral images are not available.

Automated fabrication of back surface field silicon solar cells with screen printed wraparound contacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thornhill, J. W.

1977-01-01

The development of a process for fabricating 2 x 4 cm back surface field silicon solar cells having screen printed wraparound contacts is described. This process was specifically designed to be amenable for incorporation into the automated nonvacuum production line. Techniques were developed to permit the use of screen printing for producing improved back surface field structures, wraparound dielectric layers, and wraparound contacts. The optimized process sequence was then used to produce 1852 finished cells. Tests indicated an average conversion efficiency of 11% at AMO and 28 C, with an average degradation of maximum power output of 1.5% after boiling water immersion or thermal shock cycling. Contact adherence was satisfactory after these tests, as well as long term storage at high temperature and high humidity.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru

An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Fast-PPP assessment in European and equatorial region near the solar cycle maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovira-Garcia, Adria; Juan, José Miguel; Sanz, Jaume

2014-05-01

The Fast Precise Point Positioning (Fast-PPP) is a technique to provide quick high-accuracy navigation with ambiguity fixing capability, thanks to an accurate modelling of the ionosphere. Indeed, once the availability of real-time precise satellite orbits and clocks is granted to users, the next challenge is the accuracy of real-time ionospheric corrections. Several steps had been taken by gAGE/UPC to develop such global system for precise navigation. First Wide-Area Real-Time Kinematics (WARTK) feasibility studies enabled precise relative continental navigation using a few tens of reference stations. Later multi-frequency and multi-constellation assessments in different ionospheric scenarios, including maximum solar-cycle conditions, were focussed on user-domain performance. Recently, a mature evolution of the technique consists on a dual service scheme; a global Precise Point Positioning (PPP) service, together with a continental enhancement to shorten convergence. A end to end performance assessment of the Fast-PPP technique is presented in this work, focussed in Europe and in the equatorial region of South East Asia (SEA), both near the solar cycle maximum. The accuracy of the Central Processing Facility (CPF) real-time precise satellite orbits and clocks is respectively, 4 centimetres and 0.2 nanoseconds, in line with the accuracy of the International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centres. This global PPP service is enhanced by the Fast-PPP by adding the capability of global undifferenced ambiguity fixing thanks to the fractional part of the ambiguities determination. The core of the Fast-PPP is the capability to compute real-time ionospheric determinations with accuracies at the level or better than 1 Total Electron Content Unit (TECU), improving the widely-accepted Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), with declared accuracies of 2-8 TECU. This large improvement in the modelling accuracy is achieved thanks to a two-layer description of the ionosphere combined with the carrier-phase ambiguity fixing performed in the Fast-PPP CPF. The Fast-PPP user domain positioning takes benefit of such precise ionospheric modelling. Convergence time of dual-frequency classic PPP solutions is reduced from the best part of an hour to 5-10 minutes not only in European mid-latitudes but also in the much more challenging equatorial region. The improvement of ionospheric modelling is directly translated into the accuracy of single-frequency mass-market users, achieving 2-3 decimetres of error after any cold start. Since all Fast-PPP corrections are broadcast together with their confidence level (sigma), such high-accuracy navigation is protected with safety integrity bounds.

Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle.

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

An objective algorithm for estimating maximum oceanic mixed layer depth using seasonality indices derived from Argo temperature/salinity profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ge; Yu, Fangjie

2015-01-01

In this study, we propose a new algorithm for estimating the annual maximum mixed layer depth (M2LD) analogous to a full range of local "ventilation" depth, and corresponding to the deepest surface to which atmospheric influence can be "felt." Two "seasonality indices" are defined, respectively, for temperature and salinity through Fourier analysis of their time series using Argo data, on the basis of which a significant local minimum of the index corresponding to a maximum penetration depth can be identified. A final M2LD is then determined by maximizing the thermal and haline effects. Unlike most of the previous schemes which use arbitrary thresholds or subjective criteria, the new algorithm is objective, robust, and property adaptive provided a significant periodic geophysical forcing such as annual cycle is available. The validity of our methodology is confirmed by the spatial correlation of the tropical dominance of saline effect (mainly related to rainfall cycle) and the extratropical dominance of thermal effect (mainly related to solar cycle). It is also recognized that the M2LD distribution is characterized by the coexistence of basin-scale zonal structures and eddy-scale local patches. In addition to the fundamental buoyancy forcing caused mainly by latitude-dependent solar radiation, the impressive two-scale pattern is found to be primarily attributable to (1) large-wave climate due to extreme winds (large scale) and (2) systematic eddy shedding as a result of persistent winds (mesoscale). Moreover, a general geographical consistency and a good quantitative agreement are found between the new algorithm and those published in the literature. However, a major discrepancy in our result is the existence of a constantly deeper M2LD band compared with other results in the midlatitude oceans of both hemispheres. Given the better correspondence of our M2LDs with the depth of the oxygen saturation limit, it is argued that there might be a systematic underestimation with existing criteria in these regions. Our results demonstrate that the M2LD may serve as an integrated proxy for studying the coherent multidisciplinary variabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi

2015-02-01

The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less

Hemispheric Sunspot Unit Area: Comparison with Hemispheric Sunspot Number and Sunspot Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. J.; Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N.; Xie, J. L.

2014-03-01

The monthly mean northern and southern hemispheric sunspot numbers (SNs) and sunspot areas (SAs) in the time interval of 1945 January to 2012 December are utilized to construct the monthly northern and southern hemispheric sunspot unit areas (SUAs), which are defined as the ratio of hemispheric SA to SN. Hemispheric SUAs are usually found to rise at the beginning and to fall at the ending time of a solar cycle more rapidly, forming a more irregular cycle profile than hemispheric SNs and SAs, although it also presents Schwabe-cycle-like hemispheric SNs and SAs. Sunspot activity (SN, SA, and SUA) is found asynchronously and is asymmetrically distributed in the northern and southern hemispheres, and hemispheric SNs, SAs, and SUAs are not in phase in the two hemispheres. The similarity of hemispheric SNs and SAs is found to be much more obvious than that of hemispheric SUAs and SNs (or SAs), and also for their north-south asymmetry. A notable feature is found for the behavior of the SUA around the minimum time of cycle 24: the SUA rapidly decreases from the cycle maximum value to the cycle minimum value of sunspot cycles 19-24 within just 22 months.

Hemispheric sunspot unit area: comparison with hemispheric sunspot number and sunspot area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, K. J.; Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N.

2014-03-01

The monthly mean northern and southern hemispheric sunspot numbers (SNs) and sunspot areas (SAs) in the time interval of 1945 January to 2012 December are utilized to construct the monthly northern and southern hemispheric sunspot unit areas (SUAs), which are defined as the ratio of hemispheric SA to SN. Hemispheric SUAs are usually found to rise at the beginning and to fall at the ending time of a solar cycle more rapidly, forming a more irregular cycle profile than hemispheric SNs and SAs, although it also presents Schwabe-cycle-like hemispheric SNs and SAs. Sunspot activity (SN, SA, and SUA) is foundmore » asynchronously and is asymmetrically distributed in the northern and southern hemispheres, and hemispheric SNs, SAs, and SUAs are not in phase in the two hemispheres. The similarity of hemispheric SNs and SAs is found to be much more obvious than that of hemispheric SUAs and SNs (or SAs), and also for their north-south asymmetry. A notable feature is found for the behavior of the SUA around the minimum time of cycle 24: the SUA rapidly decreases from the cycle maximum value to the cycle minimum value of sunspot cycles 19-24 within just 22 months.« less