Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William D.

2016-01-01

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, L. J.

2016-12-01

The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.

The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to amore » generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.« less

A SOLAR CYCLE LOST IN 1793-1800: EARLY SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS RESOLVE THE OLD MYSTERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Mursula, Kalevi; Arlt, Rainer

2009-08-01

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observations, the quality of the sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784-1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18-19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e., the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790s. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793-1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in the traditional Wolf sunspot series. This finally confirms the existence of themore » lost cycle that has been proposed earlier, thus resolving an old mystery. This Letter brings the attention of the scientific community to the need of revising the sunspot series in the 18th century. The presence of a new short, asymmetric cycle implies changes and constraints to sunspot cycle statistics, solar activity predictions, and solar dynamo theories, as well as for solar-terrestrial relations.« less

Manifestations of Influence of Solar Activity and Cosmic Ray Intensity on the Wheat Price in the Medieval England (1259-1703 Years)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev A.; Dorman, L. I.; Yom Din, G.

2003-07-01

The database of Professor Rogers, with wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray variations. The main object of the statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations in cosmic rays, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. Statistical properties of these two samples are similar both in averaged/median values of intervals and in standard deviation of this values. We show that histogram of intervals distribution for price bursts and solar minimums are coincidence with high confidence level. We analyzed direct links between wheat prices and solar activity in the th 17 Century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data as well as cosmic ray intensity (from 10 Be isotop e) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher than prices for the nine intervals of maximal solar activity proceed preceding to the minimums. This result, combined with the conclusion on similarity of statistical properties of the price bursts and solar activity extremes we consider as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F., E-mail: nanbin@ynao.ac.cn

The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cyclemore » variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statistical significance test indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.« less

A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

2005-03-08

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solarmore » minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.« less

Estimating sunspot number

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.; Reichmann, E. J.; Teuber, D. L.

1984-01-01

An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized.

Cosmic Ray Helium Intensities over the Solar Cycle from ACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeNolfo, G. A.; Yanasak, N. E.; Binns, W. R.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; George, J. S.; Hink. P. L.; Israel, M. H.; Lave, K.;

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Large Energetic Particle Pressures in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lario, D.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Viñas, A. F.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Berger, L.

2017-09-01

We study periods of elevated energetic particle intensities observed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrangian point when the partial energy density associated with energetic (≥80 keV) particles (PEP) dominates that of the local magnetic field (PB) and thermal plasma populations (PPLS). These periods are not uncommon and are frequently observed prior to the passage of interplanetary (IP) shocks. Because of the significant decreases in key solar wind parameters observed during solar cycle 24 [e.g., 1], we were motivated to perform a comparative statistical analysis to determine if the occurrence rate of periods when PEP exceeded PB or PPLS, or both, differed between solar cycles 23 and 24. We find that the general decrease of PB and PPLS in solar cycle 24 was also accompanied by a general decrease of periods with elevated PEP. The result is that solar cycle 24 showed a lower number of time intervals dominated by PEP. We analyze whether these differences can be related to the properties of the IP shocks observed at L1. Incomplete datasets of shock parameters do not show significant differences between solar cycles 23 and 24 that would allow us to explain the difference in the number of periods with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS. We analyze then the averaged plasma parameters measured in the upstream region of the shocks and find significantly lower solar wind proton temperatures and magnetic field magnitude upstream of IP shocks in solar cycle 24 compared with those in solar cycle 23. These factors, together with the lower level of solar activity, may explain the lower particle intensities in solar cycle 24 and hence the fewer events with PEP>PB and PEP>PPLS.

On the predictive potential of Pc5 ULF waves to forecast relativistic electrons based on their relationships over two solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Hing-Lan

2017-01-01

A statistical study of relativistic electron (>2 MeV) fluence derived from geosynchronous satellites and Pc5 ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power computed from a ground magnetic observatory data located in Canada's auroral zone has been carried out. The ground observations were made near the foot points of field lines passing through the GOESs from 1987 to 2009 (cycles 22 and 23). We determine statistical relationships between the two quantities for different phases of a solar cycle and validate these relationships in two different cycles. There is a positive linear relationship between log fluence and log Pc5 power for all solar phases; however, the power law indices vary for different phases of the cycle. High index values existed during the descending phase. The Pearson's cross correlation between electron fluence and Pc5 power indicates fluence enhancement 2-3 days after strong Pc5 wave activity for all solar phases. The lag between the two quantities is shorter for extremely high fluence (due to high Pc5 power), which tends to occur during the declining phases of both cycles. Most occurrences of extremely low fluence were observed during the extended solar minimum of cycle 23. The precursory attribute of Pc5 power with respect to fluence and the enhancement of fluence due to rising Pc5 power both support the notion of an electron acceleration mechanism by Pc5 ULF waves. This precursor behavior establishes the potential of using Pc5 power to predict relativistic electron fluence.

Statistical Comparison of Anomalous Cosmic Rays and Galactic Cosmic Rays during the Recently Consecutive Unusual Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) carry crucial information on the coupling between solar wind and interstellar medium, as well as cosmic ray modulation within the heliosphere. Due to the distinct origins and modulation processes, the spectra and abundance of ACRs are significantly different from that of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Since the launch of NASA's ACE spacecraft in 1997, its CRIS and SIS instruments have continuously recorded GCR and ACR intensities of several elemental heavy-ions, spanning the whole cycle 23 and the cycle 24 maximum. Here we present a statistical comparison of ACR and GCR observed by ACE spacecraft and their possible relation to solar activity. While the differential flux of ACR also exhibits apparent anti-correlation with solar activity level, the flux of the latest prolonged solar minimum (year 2009) is approximately 5% lower than its previous solar minimum (year 1997). And the minimal level of ACR flux appears in year 2004, instead of year 2001 with the strongest solar activities. The negative indexes of the power law spectra within the energy range from 5 to 30 MeV/nuc also vary with time. The spectra get harder during the solar minimum but softer during the solar maximum. The approaching solar minimum of cycle 24 is believed to resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum with extremely low solar activity (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Therefore, the different characteristics of ACRs between the coming solar minimum and the previous minimum are also of great interest. Finally, we will also discuss the possible solar-modulation processes which is responsible for different modulation of ACR and GCR, especially the roles played by diffusion and drifts. The comparative analysis will provide valuable insights into the physical modulation process within the heliosphere under opposite solar polarity and variable solar activity levels.

Statistical analysis of midlatitude spread F using multi-station digisonde observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaneja, P.; Earle, G. D.; Bullett, T. W.

2018-01-01

A comprehensive statistical study of midlatitude spread F (MSF) is presented for five midlatitude stations in the North American sector. These stations include Ramey AFB, Puerto Rico (18.5°N, 67.1°W, -14° declination angle), Wallops Island, Virginia (37.95°N, 75.5°W, -11° declination angle), Dyess, Texas (32.4°N, 99.8°W, 6.9° declination angle), Boulder, Colorado (40°N, 105.3°W, 10° declination angle), and Vandenberg AFB, California (34.8°N, 120.5°W, 13° declination angle). Pattern recognition algorithms are used to determine the presence of both range and frequency spread F. Data from 1996 to 2011 are analyzed, covering all of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Variations with respect to season and solar activity are presented, including the effects of the extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

PubMed

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

Statistical Study of ICMEs and Their Sheaths During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsakou, E.; Moussas, X.

2014-08-01

We have created a new catalog of 325 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using their in-situ plasma signatures from 1996 to 2008; this time period includes Solar Cycle 23. The data set came from the OMNI near-Earth database. The one-minute resolution data that we used include magnetic-field strength, solar-wind speed, proton density, proton temperature, and plasma β. We compared this new catalog with other published catalogs. For every event, we indicated the presence of an ICME-driven shock. We identified the boundaries of ICMEs and their sheaths, and examined the statistical properties of characteristic parameters. We derived the duration and radial width of ICMEs and sheaths in the region near Earth. The statistical analysis of all events shows that, on average, sheaths travel faster than ICMEs, which indicates the expansion of CMEs in the interplanetary medium. They have higher mean magnetic-field strength values than ICMEs, and they are denser. They have higher mean proton temperature and plasma β than ICMEs, but they are smaller than ICMEs and last for a shorter time. The events were divided into different categories according to whether they included a shock and according to the phase of Solar Cycle 23 in which they are observed, i.e. ascending, maximum, or descending phase. We compared the different categories. We present a catalog of events available to the scientific community that studies ICMEs, and show the distribution and statistical properties of various parameters during these phenomena that govern the solar wind, the interplanetary medium, and space weather.

Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2017-07-01

Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

Planetary resonances, bi-stable oscillation modes, and solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleeper, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

The natural resonance structure of the planets in the solar system yields resonance periods of 11.08 and 180 years. The 11.08 year period is due to resonance of the sidereal periods of the three inner planets. The 180-year period is due to synodic resonances of the four major planets. These periods are also observed in the sunspot time series. The 11-year sunspot cycles from 1 to 19 are separated into categories of positive and negative cycles, Mode 1 and Mode 2 cycles, and typical and anomalous cycles. Each category has a characteristic shape, magnitude, or duration, so that statistical prediction techniques are improved when a cycle can be classified in a given category. These categories provide evidence for bistable modes of solar oscillation. The next minimum is expected in 1977 and the next maximum in 1981 or later. These epoch values are 2.5 years later than those based on typical cycle characteristics.

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, N. R.; Davidsen, J.

2014-05-01

Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ɛ parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

Solar Cycle Variations in Polar Cap Area Measured by the SuperDARN Radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-12-01

We present a long term study, from January 1996 - August 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) measured at midnight using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection, and is used in this study as a measure of the global magnetospheric dynamics and activity. We find that the yearly distribution of HMB latitudes is single-peaked at 64° magnetic latitude for the majority of the 17-year interval. During 2003 the envelope of the distribution shifts to lower latitudes and a second peak in the distribution is observed at 61°. The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function derived by Milan et al. (2012) suggests that the solar wind driving during this year was significantly higher than during the rest of the 17-year interval. In contrast, during the period 2008-2011 HMB distribution shifts to higher latitudes, and a second peak in the distribution is again observed, this time at 68° magnetic latitude. This time interval corresponds to a period of extremely low solar wind driving during the recent extreme solar minimum. This is the first statistical study of the polar cap area over an entire solar cycle, and the results demonstrate that there is a close relationship between the phase of the solar cycle and the area of the polar cap on a large scale statistical basis.

Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi

2000-11-01

We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent.

Sunspot cycle-dependent changes in the distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of IMF observed near 1 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felix Pereira, B.; Girish, T. E.

2004-05-01

The solar cycle variations in the characteristics of the GSE latitudinal angles of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field ($\\theta$GSE) observed near 1 AU have been studied for the period 1967-2000. It is observed that the statistical parameters mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis vary with sunspot cycle. The $\\theta$GSE distribution resembles the Gaussian curve during sunspot maximum and is clearly non-Gaussian during sunspot minimum. The width of the $\\theta$GSE distribution is found to increase with sunspot activity, which is likely to depend on the occurrence of solar transients. Solar cycle variations in skewness are ordered by the solar polar magnetic field changes. This can be explained in terms of the dependence of the dominant polarity of the north-south component of IMF in the GSE system near 1 AU on the IMF sector polarity and the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres through the solar cycles 20 and 21. The sunspots tend to be the southern dominance during the solar cycles 22 and 23, and it shifted during solar cycle 24 to symmetric distribution on both solar hemispheres.

Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.; Lepping, R. P.

2007-01-01

We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Investigation of Sunspot Area Varying with Sunspot Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. J.; Li, F. Y.; Zhang, J.; Feng, W.

2016-11-01

The statistical relationship between sunspot area (SA) and sunspot number (SN) is investigated through analysis of their daily observation records from May 1874 to April 2015. For a total of 1607 days, representing 3 % of the total interval considered, either SA or SN had a value of zero while the other parameter did not. These occurrences most likely reflect the report of short-lived spots by a single observatory and subsequent averaging of zero values over multiple stations. The main results obtained are as follows: i) The number of spotless days around the minimum of a solar cycle is statistically negatively correlated with the maximum strength of solar activity of that cycle. ii) The probability distribution of SA generally decreases monotonically with SA, but the distribution of SN generally increases first, then it decreases as a whole. The different probability distribution of SA and SN should strengthen their non-linear relation, and the correction factor [k] in the definition of SN may be one of the factors that cause the non-linearity. iii) The non-linear relation of SA and SN indeed exists statistically, and it is clearer during the maximum epoch of a solar cycle.

Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S.

2017-08-01

The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect.

Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

2004-01-01

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adam, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.

2011-01-01

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adams, James H.; Dietrich, William F.

2012-01-01

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

2017-12-01

Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23: AS DEEP AS IT COULD BE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W.; Senkpeil, Ryan R.

2015-05-01

In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that themore » sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, are found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar magnetism. We find that when hemispheres are treated separately, almost every one of the past 12 solar minima reaches a point where the main contribution to magnetism comes from the small-scale component. However, due to asymmetries in cycle phase, this state is very rarely reached by both hemispheres at the same time. From this we infer that even though each hemisphere did reach the magnetic baseline, from a heliospheric point of view the minimum of cycle 23 was not as deep as it could have been.« less

Coronal Holes and Magnetic Flux Ropes Interweaving Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony; Leamon, Robert; Qiu, Jiong

2016-10-01

Coronal holes, dark patches observed in solar observations in extreme ultraviolet and x-ray wavelengths, provide an excellent proxy for regions of open magnetic field rooted near the photosphere. Through a multi-instrument approach, including SDO data, we are able to stitch together high resolution maps of coronal hole boundaries spanning the past two solar activity cycles. These observational results are used in conjunction with models of open magnetic field to probe physical solar parameters. Magnetic flux ropes are commonly defined as bundles of solar magnetic field lines, twisting around a common axis. Photospheric surface flows and magnetic reconnection work in conjunction to form these ropes, storing magnetic stresses until eruption. With an automated methodology to identify flux ropes within observationally driven magnetofrictional simulations, we can study their properties in detail. Of particular interest is a solar-cycle length statistical description of eruption rates, spatial distribution, magnetic orientation, flux, and helicity. Coronal hole observations can provide useful data about the distribution of the fast solar wind, with magnetic flux ropes yielding clues as to ejected magnetic field and the resulting space weather geo-effectiveness. With both of these cycle-spanning datasets, we can begin to form a more detailed picture of the evolution and consequences of both sets of solar magnetic features.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-01-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-11-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Solar Cycle variations in Earth's open flux content measured by the SuperDARN radar network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-09-01

We present a long term study, from 1996 - 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection and is here used as a proxy for the amount of open flux in the polar cap. The mean HMB latitude (measured at midnight) is found to be at 64 degrees during the entire period, with secondary peaks at lower latitudes during the solar maximum of 2003, and at higher latitudes during the recent extreme solar minimum of 2008-2011. We associate these large scale statistical variations in open flux content with solar cycle variations in the solar wind parameters leading to changes in the intensity of the coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

Structure of the Photospheric Magnetic Field During Sector Crossings of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-11-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we separately study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during Solar Cycles 21 - 24 for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976 - 2016. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle, solar cycle phase, and hemisphere. The Hale boundaries in more than half of the ascending, maximum, and declining phases are clear and statistically significant. The clearest Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd Cycles 21 and 23, but less systematical during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even Cycles 22 and 24. No similar difference between odd and even cycles is found for the (-,+) crossings. This shows that the northern hemisphere has a more organized Hale pattern overall. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon.

Propagation of Interplanetary Disturbances in the Outer Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chi

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: 1. We have developed a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric, multi-fluid MHD model that includes solar wind protons and electrons, pickup ions, and interstellar neutral hydrogen. This model advances the existing solar wind models for the outer heliosphere in two important ways: one is that it distinguishes solar wind protons from pickup ions, and the other is that it allows for energy transfer from pickup ions to the solar wind protons. Model results compare favorably with the Voyager 2 observations. 2. 2. Solar wind slowdown and interstellar neutral density. The solar wind in the outer heliosphere is fundamentally different from that in the inner heliosphere since the effects of interstellar neutrals become significant. 3. ICME propagation from the inner to outer heliosphere. Large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have major effects on the structure of the solar wind and the heliosphere. The plasma and magnetic field can be compressed ahead of interplanetary CMEs. 4. During the current solar cycle (Cycle 23), several major CMEs associated with solar flares produced large transient shocks which were observed by widely-separated spacecraft such as Wind at Earth and Voyager 2 beyond 60 AU. Using data from these spacecraft, we use the multi-fluid model to investigate shock propagation and interaction in the heliosphere. Specifically, we studied the Bastille Day 2000, April 2001 and Halloween 2003 events. 5. Statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. In a collaboration with L.F. Burlaga of GSFC, it is shown that the basic statistical properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere can be well produced by our model. We studied the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field strength fluctuations as a function of distance from the Sun during the declining phase of a solar cycle, using our numerical model with observations made at 1 AU during 1995 as input. 6. Radial heliospheric magnetic field events. The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) direction, on average, conforms well to the Parker spiral.

Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schatten, K. H.; Tobiska, W. K.

2003-05-01

Long-range (few years to decades) solar activity prediction techniques vary greatly in their methods. They range from examining planetary orbits, to spectral analyses (e.g. Fourier, wavelet and spectral analyses), to artificial intelligence methods, to simply using general statistical techniques. Rather than concentrate on statistical/mathematical/numerical methods, we discuss a class of methods which appears to have a "physical basis." Not only does it have a physical basis, but this basis is rooted in both "basic" physics (dynamo theory), but also solar physics (Babcock dynamo theory). The class we discuss is referred to as "precursor methods," originally developed by Ohl, Brown and Williams and others, using geomagnetic observations. My colleagues and I have developed some understanding for how these methods work and have expanded the prediction methods using "solar dynamo precursor" methods, notably a "SODA" index (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude). These methods are now based upon an understanding of the Sun's dynamo processes- to explain a connection between how the Sun's fields are generated and how the Sun broadcasts its future activity levels to Earth. This has led to better monitoring of the Sun's dynamo fields and is leading to more accurate prediction techniques. Related to the Sun's polar and toroidal magnetic fields, we explain how these methods work, past predictions, the current cycle, and predictions of future of solar activity levels for the next few solar cycles. The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a "Maunder" type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity. For the solar physicists, who enjoy studying solar activity, we hope this isn't so, but for NASA, which must place and maintain satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), it may help with reboost problems. Space debris, and other aspects of objects in LEO will also be affected. This research is supported by the NSF and NASA.

Mathematical modeling of the moderate storm on 28 February 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eroglu, Emre

2018-04-01

The sun is an active star with plasma-filled prominences. The sudden ejection of the solar plasma creates storms in the form of bursting or spraying. A magnetospheric storm is a typical phenomenon that lasts 1-3 days and involves all magnetosphere from the earth's ionosphere to the magnetotail. The storms are known by different categorical names such as weak, moderate, strong, intense. One of these is the moderate geomagnetic storm on February 28, 2008, which occurred in the 24th solar cycle. The reason for discussing this storm is that it is the first moderate storm in the 24th solar cycle. In this study, we investigate the storm and entered the 24th solar cycle. The correlation among the parametres has been investigated via statistics. The solar wind parameters and the zonal geomagnetic indices have been analyzed separately and then the interaction with each other has been exhibited. The author has concluded the work with two new nonlinear mathematical models. These explain the storm with 79.1% and 87.5% accuracy.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Hemispheric Patterns in Electric Current Helicity of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycle 24: Results from SOLIS, SDO and Hinode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusain, S.

2017-12-01

We study the hemispheric patterns in electric current helicity distribution on the Sun. Magnetic field vector in the photosphere is now routinely measured by variety of instruments. SOLIS/VSM of NSO observes full disk Stokes spectra in photospheric lines which are used to derive vector magnetograms. Hinode SP is a space based spectropolarimeter which has the same observable as SOLIS albeit with limited field-of-view (FOV) but high spatial resolution. SDO/HMI derives vector magnetograms from full disk Stokes measurements, with rather limited spectral resolution, from space in a different photospheric line. Further, these datasets now exist for several years. SOLIS/VSM from 2003, Hinode SP from 2006, and SDO HMI since 2010. Using these time series of vector magnetograms we compute the electric current density in active regions during solar cycle 24 and study the hemispheric distributions. Many studies show that the helicity parameters and proxies show a strong hemispheric bias, such that Northern hemisphere has preferentially negative and southern positive helicity, respectively. We will confirm these results for cycle 24 from three different datasets and evaluate the statistical significance of the hemispheric bias. Further, we discuss the solar cycle variation in the hemispheric helicity pattern during cycle 24 and discuss its implications in terms of solar dynamo models.

Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga

2016-07-01

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are a key ingredient of Solar-Terrestrial Physics both for fundamental research and space weather applications. SEP events are the defining component of solar radiation storms, contribute to radio blackouts in polar regions and are related to many of the fastest Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) driving major geomagnetic storms. In addition to CMEs, SEPs are also related to flares. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the SEP field will be reviewed. Key issues to be covered and discussed include: the current understanding of the origin, acceleration and transport processes of SEPs at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere, lessons learned from multi-spacecraft SEP observations, statistical quantification of the comparison of solar events and SEP events of the current solar cycle 24 with previous solar cycles, causes of the solar-cycle variations in SEP fluencies and composition, theoretical work and current SEP acceleration models. Furthermore, the outstanding issues that constitute a knowledge gap in the field will be presented and discussed, as well as future directions and expected advances from the observational and modeling perspective, also in view of the unique observations provided by the upcoming Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

An early prediction of 25th solar cycle using Hurst exponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. K.; Bhargawa, Asheesh

2017-11-01

The analysis of long memory processes in solar activity, space weather and other geophysical phenomena has been a major issue even after the availability of enough data. We have examined the data of various solar parameters like sunspot numbers, 10.7 cm radio flux, solar magnetic field, proton flux and Alfven Mach number observed for the year 1976-2016. We have done the statistical test for persistence of solar activity based on the value of Hurst exponent (H) which is one of the most classical applied methods known as rescaled range analysis. We have discussed the efficiency of this methodology as well as prediction content for next solar cycle based on long term memory. In the present study, Hurst exponent analysis has been used to investigate the persistence of above mentioned (five) solar activity parameters and a simplex projection analysis has been used to predict the ascension time and the maximum number of counts for 25th solar cycle. For available dataset of the year 1976-2016, we have calculated H = 0.86 and 0.82 for sunspot number and 10.7 cm radio flux respectively. Further we have calculated maximum number of counts for sunspot numbers and F10.7 cm index as 102.8± 24.6 and 137.25± 8.9 respectively. Using the simplex projection analysis, we have forecasted that the solar cycle 25th would start in the year 2021 (January) and would last up to the year 2031 (September) with its maxima in June 2024.

Influence of solar activity on the state of the wheat market in medieval England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev A.; Din, Gregory Yom

2004-09-01

The database of professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. Our approach was based on the following: (1) Existence of the correlation between cosmic ray flux entering the terrestrial atmosphere and cloudiness of the atmosphere. (2) Cosmic ray intensity in the solar system changes with solar activity, (3) Wheat production depends on weather conditions as a nonlinear function with threshold transitions. (4) A wheat market with a limited supply (as it was in medieval England) has a highly nonlinear sensitivity to variations in wheat production with boundary states, where small changes in wheat supply could lead to bursts of prices or to prices falling. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between wheat price bursts during the years 1249-1703 with statistical properties of the intervals between the minima of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. We show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both for characteristics of the distributions and for histograms of the distributions. We analyze a direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17th century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data (derived from 10Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of the solar activity minima the observed prices were higher than prices for the corresponding time moments of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these results a direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efimenko, V. M.; Lozitsky, V. G.

2018-06-01

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf's numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946-1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44 years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44 years.

Detection of large scale geomagnetic pulsations by MAGDAS-egypt stations during the solar minimum of the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathy, Ibrahim

2016-07-01

This paper presents a statistical study of different types of large-scale geomagnetic pulsation (Pc3, Pc4, Pc5 and Pi2) detected simultaneously by two MAGDAS stations located at Fayum (Geo. Coordinates 29.18 N and 30.50 E) and Aswan (Geo. Coordinates 23.59 N and 32.51 E) in Egypt. The second order butter-worth band-pass filter has been used to filter and analyze the horizontal H-component of the geomagnetic field in one-second data. The data was collected during the solar minimum of the current solar cycle 24. We list the most energetic pulsations detected by the two stations instantaneously, in addition; the average amplitude of the pulsation signals was calculated.

Catalogue of 55-80 MeV solar proton events extending through solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paassilta, Miikka; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami; Valtonen, Eino; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Siipola, Robert; Riihonen, Esa; Dierckxsens, Mark; Crosby, Norma; Malandraki, Olga; Heber, Bernd; Klein, Karl-Ludwig

2017-06-01

We present a new catalogue of solar energetic particle events near the Earth, covering solar cycle 23 and the majority of solar cycle 24 (1996-2016), based on the 55-80 MeV proton intensity data gathered by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (SOHO/ERNE). In addition to ERNE proton and heavy ion observations, data from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Electron, Proton and Alpha Monitor (ACE/EPAM) (near-relativistic electrons), SOHO/EPHIN (Electron Proton Helium Instrument) (relativistic electrons), SOHO/LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) (coronal mass ejections, CMEs) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray experiments are also considered and the associations between the particle and CME/X-ray events deduced to obtain a better understanding of each event. A total of 176 solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been identified as having occurred during the time period of interest; their onset and solar release times have been estimated using both velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for protons, as well as TSA for near-relativistic electrons. Additionally, a brief statistical analysis was performed on the VDA and TSA results, as well as the X-rays and CMEs associated with the proton/electron events, both to test the viability of the VDA and to investigate possible differences between the two solar cycles. We find, in confirmation of a number of previous studies, that VDA results for protons that yield an apparent path length of 1 AU < s ≾ 3 AU seem to be useful, but those outside this range are probably unreliable, as evidenced by the anticorrelation between apparent path length and release time estimated from the X-ray activity. It also appears that even the first-arriving energetic protons apparently undergo significant pitch angle scattering in the interplanetary medium, with the resulting apparent path length being on average about twice the length of the spiral magnetic field. The analysis indicates an increase in high-energy SEP events originating from the far-eastern solar hemisphere; for instance, such an event with a well-established associated GOES flare has so far occurred three times during cycle 24 but possibly not at all during cycle 23. The generally lower level of solar activity during cycle 24, as opposed to cycle 23, has probably caused a significant decrease in total ambient pressure in the interplanetary space, leading to a larger proportion of SEP-associated halo-type CMEs. Taken together, these observations point to a qualitative difference between the two solar cycles.

Solar Flare Super-Events: When they Can Occur and the Energy Limits of their Realization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishkov, Vitaly N.

2015-03-01

For the successful development of terrestrial civilization it is necessary to estimate the space factors, including phenomena on Sun, which can ruin it or cause such catastrophic loss, that the restoration to the initial level can take unacceptably long time. Super-powerful solar flares are the only such phenomena. Therefore an attempt is undertaken to estimate the possibility of such super-event occurrence at this stage of our star evolution. Since solar flare events are the consequence of the newly emerging magnetic fluxes interacting with the already existing magnetic fields of active regions, are investigated the observed cases which lead to the realization of such super-events. From the observations of the maximal magnetic fluxes during the period of reliable solar observations, the conclusion is made that the super- extreme solar flares cannot significantly exceed the most powerful solar flares which have already been observed. On the statistics of the reliable solar cycles the sunspot groups, in which occurred the most powerful solar super-events (August- September 1859 - solar cycle 10; June 1991 - SC 22; October-November 2003 - SC 23) appeared in the periods of the solar magnetic field reorganization between the epochs of "increased" and "lowered" solar activity.

Solar activity prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slutz, R. J.; Gray, T. B.; West, M. L.; Stewart, F. G.; Leftin, M.

1971-01-01

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, A. A.; Charbonneau, P.; Passos, D.

2014-12-01

Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in north-south hemispheric solar cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to observations. The observed limits on solar cycle amplitude and phase asymmetry show that hemispheric sunspot area production is no more than 20 % asymmetric for cycles 17-23 and that phase lags do not exceed 20 % (or two years) of the total cycle period, as determined from Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot data. Several independent studies have found a long-term trend in phase values as one hemisphere leads the other for, on average, four cycles. Such persistence in phase is not indicative of a stochastic phenomenon. We compare these observational findings to the magnetic cycle found in a numerical simulation of solar convection recently produced with the EULAG-MHD model. This long "millennium simulation" spans more than 1600 years and generated 40 regular, sunspot-like cycles. While the simulated cycle length is too long (˜40 yrs) and the toroidal bands remain at too high of latitudes (>30°), some solar-like aspects of hemispheric asymmetry are reproduced. The model is successful at reproducing the synchrony of polarity inversions and onset of cycle as the simulated phase lags do not exceed 20 % of the cycle period. The simulated amplitude variations between the north and south hemispheres are larger than those observed in the Sun, some up to 40 %. An interesting note is that the simulations also show that one hemisphere can persistently lead the other for several successive cycles, placing an upper bound on the efficiency of transequatorial magnetic coupling mechanisms. These include magnetic diffusion, cross-equatorial mixing within latitudinally-elongated convective rolls (a.k.a. "banana cells") and transequatorial meridional flow cells. One or more of these processes may lead to magnetic flux cancellation whereby the oppositely directed fields come in close proximity and cancel each other across the magnetic equator late in the solar cycle. We discuss the discrepancies between model and observations and the constraints they pose on possible mechanisms of hemispheric coupling.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Mursula, Kalevi; Tsai, Victor C.; Perkins, David M.

2011-11-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Delin; Xiao, Ziniu

2018-01-01

The ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) is well-known robust. Recent studies from observations and model simulations have reported that some important atmospheric circulation systems of extratropics are markedly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. But less effort has been devoted to revealing the solar influence on the PNA. We thus hypothesize that the instability and uncertainty in the relationship between solar activity and PNA could be due to the ENSO impacts. In this study, solar cycle modulation of the ENSO effect on the PNA has been statistically examined by the observations from NOAA and NCEP/NCAR for the period of 1950-2014. Results indicate that during the high solar activity (HS) years, the PNA has stronger relevance to the ENSO, and the response of tropospheric geopotential height to ENSO variability is broadly similar to the typical positive PNA pattern. However, in the case of low solar activity (LS) years, the correlation between ENSO and PNA decreases relatively and the response has some resemblance to the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO). Also, we find the impacts of solar activity on the middle troposphere are asymmetric during the different solar cycle phases, and the weak PNA-like response to solar activity only presents in the HS years. Closer inspection suggests that the higher solar activity has a much more remarkable modulation on the PNA-like response to the warm ENSO (WE) than that to the cold ENSO (CE), particularly over the Northeast Pacific region. The possible cause of the different responses might be the solar influence on the subtropical westerlies of upper troposphere. When the sea surface temperature (SST) of east-central tropical Pacific is anomalously warm, the upper tropospheric westerlies are significantly modulated by the higher solar activity, resulting in the acceleration and eastward shift of the North Pacific subtropical jet, which favors the propagation of WE signal from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, and consequently leading to the development of positive PNA-like pattern during the WE phase. Thus, it seems that the solar cycle can significantly modulate the WE effect on the PNA under the HS background.

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2006-01-01

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

The study on the new approach to the prediction of the solar flares: The statistical relation from the SOHO archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Oh, S.; Lee, J.; Hong, S.

2013-12-01

We have investigated the statistical relationship of the solar active region to predict the solar flare event analyzing the sunspot catalogue, which has been newly constructed from the SOHO MDI observation data during the period from 1996 to 2011 (Solar Cycle 23 & 24) by ASSA(Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer) algorithms. The prediction relation has been made by machine-learning algorithms to establish a short- term flare prediction model for operational use in near future. In this study, continuum and magnetogram images observed by SOHO has been processed to yield 15-year sunspot group catalogue that contains various physical parameters such as sunspot area, extent, asymmetry measure of largest penumbral sunspot, roughness of magnetic neutral line as well as McIntosh and Mt. Wilson classification results.The latest result of our study will be presented and the new approach to the prediction of the solar flare will be discussed.

Association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections accompanied by Deca-Hectometric type II radio burst for two solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharayat, Hema; Prasad, Lalan; Pant, Sumit

2018-05-01

The aim of present study is to find the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio burst for the period 1997-2014 (solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of solar cycle 24). We have used a statistical analysis and found that 10-20∘ latitudinal belt of northern region and 80-90∘ longitudinal belts of western region of the sun are more effective for flare-CME accompanied by DH type II radio burst events. M-class flares (52%) are in good association with the CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst. Further, we have calculated the flare position and found that most frequent flare site is at the center of the CME span. However, the occurrence probability of all flares is maximum outside the CME span. X-class flare associated CMEs have maximum speed than that of M, C, and B-class flare associated CMEs. We have also found a good correlation between flare position and central position angle of CMEs accompanied by DH type II radio burst.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal (˜0.1 - 200 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linghua; Yang, Liu; Tao, Jiawei; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart

2017-04-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-200 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. The observed energy spectrum of both (beaming) strahl and (isotropic) halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV generally fits to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff, while the observed energy spectrum of nearly isotropic superhalo electrons at ˜20-200 keV generally fits to a power-law function, J ˜ E-β. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl density and halo density. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. For the superhalo population, the spectral index β ranges from ˜1.6 to ˜3.7 and the integrated density nsup ranges from 10-8 cm-3 to 10-5 cm-3, with no clear association with the sunspot number. In solar cycle 23 (24), the distribution of β has a broad maximum between 2.4 and 2.8 (2.0 and 2.4). All the strahl, halo and superhalo populations show no obvious correlation with the solar wind core population. These results reflect the nature of the generation of solar wind suprathermal electrons.

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layden, A. C.; Fox, P. A.; Howard, J. M.; Sarajedini, A.; Schatten, K. H.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal ( 0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Tao, J.; Zong, Q.; Li, G.; Salem, C. S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C.; Bale, S. D.

2016-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND/3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Quiet-time Suprathermal (~0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Salem, Chadi S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart D.

2016-03-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

The statistical analysis of energy release in small-scale coronal structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulyanov, Artyom; Kuzin, Sergey; Bogachev, Sergey

We present the results of statistical analysis of impulsive flare-like brightenings, which numerously occur in the quiet regions of solar corona. For our study, we utilized high-cadence observations performed with two EUV-telescopes - TESIS/Coronas-Photon and AIA/SDO. In total, we processed 6 sequences of images, registered throughout the period between 2009 and 2013, covering the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. Based on high-speed DEM estimation method, we developed a new technique to evaluate the main parameters of detected events (geometrical sizes, duration, temperature and thermal energy). We then obtained the statistical distributions of these parameters and examined their variations depending on the level of solar activity. The results imply that near the minimum of the solar cycle the energy release in quiet corona is mainly provided by small-scale events (nanoflares), whereas larger events (microflares) prevail on the peak of activity. Furthermore, we investigated the coronal conditions that had specified the formation and triggering of registered flares. By means of photospheric magnetograms obtained with MDI/SoHO and HMI/SDO instruments, we examined the topology of local magnetic fields at different stages: the pre-flare phase, the peak of intensity and the ending phase. To do so, we introduced a number of topological parameters including the total magnetic flux, the distance between magnetic sources and their mutual arrangement. The found correlation between the change of these parameters and the formation of flares may offer an important tool for application of flare forecasting.

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

2006-01-01

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Slow and fast solar wind - data selection and statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wawrzaszek, Anna; Macek, Wiesław M.; Bruno, Roberto; Echim, Marius

2014-05-01

In this work we consider the important problem of selection of slow and fast solar wind data measured in-situ by the Ulysses spacecraft during two solar minima (1995-1997, 2007-2008) and solar maximum (1999-2001). To recognise different types of solar wind we use a set of following parameters: radial velocity, proton density, proton temperature, the distribution of charge states of oxygen ions, and compressibility of magnetic field. We present how this idea of the data selection works on Ulysses data. In the next step we consider the chosen intervals for fast and slow solar wind and perform statistical analysis of the fluctuating magnetic field components. In particular, we check the possibility of identification of inertial range by considering the scale dependence of the third and fourth orders scaling exponents of structure function. We try to verify the size of inertial range depending on the heliographic latitudes, heliocentric distance and phase of the solar cycle. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007 - 2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM.

A Novel Analysis Of The Connection Between Indian Monsoon Rainfall And Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, S.; Narasimha, R.

2005-12-01

The existence of possible correlations between the solar cycle period as extracted from the yearly means of sunspot numbers and any periodicities that may be present in the Indian monsoon rainfall has been addressed using wavelet analysis. The wavelet transform coefficient maps of sunspot-number time series and those of the homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall annual time series data reveal striking similarities, especially around the 11-year period. A novel method to analyse and quantify this similarity devising statistical schemes is suggested in this paper. The wavelet transform coefficient maxima at the 11-year period for the sunspot numbers and the monsoon rainfall have each been modelled as a point process in time and a statistical scheme for identifying a trend or dependence between the two processes has been devised. A regression analysis of parameters in these processes reveals a nearly linear trend with small but systematic deviations from the regressed line. Suitable function models for these deviations have been obtained through an unconstrained error minimisation scheme. These models provide an excellent fit to the time series of the given wavelet transform coefficient maxima obtained from actual data. Statistical significance tests on these deviations suggest with 99% confidence that the deviations are sample fluctuations obtained from normal distributions. In fact our earlier studies (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, No. 5) revealed that average rainfall is higher during periods of greater solar activity for all cases, at confidence levels varying from 75% to 99%, being 95% or greater in 3 out of 7 of them. Analysis using standard wavelet techniques reveals higher power in the 8--16 y band during the higher solar activity period, in 6 of the 7 rainfall time series, at confidence levels exceeding 99.99%. Furthermore, a comparison between the wavelet cross spectra of solar activity with rainfall and noise (including those simulating the rainfall spectrum and probability distribution) revealed that over the two test-periods respectively of high and low solar activity, the average cross power of the solar activity index with rainfall exceeds that with the noise at z-test confidence levels exceeding 99.99% over period-bands covering the 11.6 y sunspot cycle (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, SORCE 2005 14-16th September, at Durango, Colorado USA). These results provide strong evidence for connections between Indian rainfall and solar activity. The present study reveals in addition the presence of subharmonics of the solar cycle period in the monsoon rainfall time series together with information on their phase relationships.

THE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS 1992–2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jaeggli, S. A.; Norton, A. A., E-mail: sarah.jaeggli@nasa.gov

The purpose of this Letter is to address a blindspot in our knowledge of solar active region (AR) statistics. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published results showing the variation of the Mount Wilson magnetic classifications as a function of solar cycle based on modern observations. We show statistics for all ARs reported in the daily Solar Region Summary from 1992 January 1 to 2015 December 31. We find that the α and β class ARs (including all sub-groups, e.g., βγ, βδ) make up fractions of approximately 20% and 80% of the sample, respectively. This fraction ismore » relatively constant during high levels of activity; however, an increase in the α fraction to about 35% and and a decrease in the β fraction to about 65% can be seen near each solar minimum and are statistically significant at the 2σ level. Over 30% of all ARs observed during the years of solar maxima were appended with the classifications γ and/or δ, while these classifications account for only a fraction of a percent during the years near the solar minima. This variation in the AR types indicates that the formation of complex ARs may be due to the pileup of frequent emergence of magnetic flux during solar maximum, rather than the emergence of complex, monolithic flux structures.« less

Development and analysis of a meteorological database, Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Price, Thomas H.; Ishii, Audrey L.

2010-01-01

A database of hourly values of air temperature, dewpoint temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2003, primarily using data collected at the Argonne National Laboratory station, was developed for use in continuous-time hydrologic modeling in northeastern Illinois. Missing and apparently erroneous data values were replaced with adjusted values from nearby stations used as 'backup'. Temporal variations in the statistical properties of the data resulting from changes in measurement and data-storage methodologies were adjusted to match the statistical properties resulting from the data-collection procedures that have been in place since January 1, 1989. The adjustments were computed based on the regressions between the primary data series from Argonne National Laboratory and the backup series using data obtained during common periods; the statistical properties of the regressions were used to assign estimated standard errors to values that were adjusted or filled from other series. Each hourly value was assigned a corresponding data-source flag that indicates the source of the value and its transformations. An analysis of the data-source flags indicates that all the series in the database except dewpoint have a similar fraction of Argonne National Laboratory data, with about 89 percent for the entire period, about 86 percent from 1949 through 1988, and about 98 percent from 1989 through 2003. The dewpoint series, for which observations at Argonne National Laboratory did not begin until 1958, has only about 71 percent Argonne National Laboratory data for the entire period, about 63 percent from 1948 through 1988, and about 93 percent from 1989 through 2003, indicating a lower reliability of the dewpoint sensor. A basic statistical analysis of the filled and adjusted data series in the database, and a series of potential evapotranspiration computed from them using the computer program LXPET (Lamoreux Potential Evapotranspiration) also was carried out. This analysis indicates annual cycles in solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration that follow the annual cycle of extraterrestrial solar radiation, whereas temperature and dewpoint annual cycles are lagged by about 1 month relative to the solar cycle. The annual cycle of wind has a late summer minimum, and spring and fall maximums. At the annual time scale, the filled and adjusted data series and computed potential evapotranspiration have significant serial correlation and possibly have significant temporal trends. The inter-annual fluctuations of temperature and dewpoint are weakest, whereas those of wind and potential evapotranspiration are strongest.

On the seat of the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gough, D.

1981-01-01

A discussion of some of the issues raised in connection with the seat of the solar cycle are presented. Is the cycle controlled by a strictly periodic oscillator that operates in the core, or is it a turbulent dynamo confined to the convection zone and possibly a thin boundary layer beneath it? Sunspot statistics are discussed, with a view to ascertaining the length of the memory of the cycle, without drawing a definitive conclusion. Also discussed are some of the processes that might bring about variations delta L and delta R in the luminosity and the radius of the photosphere. It appears that the ratio W = delta lnR/delta lnL increases with the depth of the disturbance that produces the variations, so that imminent observations might determine whether or not the principal dynamical processes are confined to only the outer layers of the Sun.

Does solar activity affect human happiness?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2018-03-01

We investigate the direct influence of solar activity (represented by sunspot numbers) on human happiness (represented by the Twitter-based Happiness Index). We construct four models controlling for various statistical and dynamic effects of the analyzed series. The final model gives promising results. First, there is a statistically significant negative influence of solar activity on happiness which holds even after controlling for the other factors. Second, the final model, which is still rather simple, explains around 75% of variance of the Happiness Index. Third, our control variables contribute significantly as well: happiness is higher in no sunspots days, happiness is strongly persistent, there are strong intra-week cycles and happiness peaks during holidays. Our results strongly contribute to the topical literature and they provide evidence of unique utility of the online data.

Observational Evidence of Shallow Origins for the Magnetic Fields of Solar Cycles - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Sara F.

2018-05-01

Observational evidence for the origin of active region magnetic fields has been sought from published information on extended solar cycles, statistical distributions of active regions and ephemeral regions, helioseismology results, positional relationships to supergranules, and fine-scale magnetic structure of active regions and their sunspots during their growth. Statistical distributions of areas of ephemeral and active regions blend together to reveal a single power law. The shape of the size distribution in latitude of all active regions is independent of time during the solar cycle, yielding further evidence that active regions of all sizes belong to the same population. Elementary bipoles, identified also by other names, appear to be the building blocks of active regions; sunspots form from elementary bipoles and are therefore deduced to develop from the photosphere downward, consistent with helioseismic detection of downflows to 3-4 Mm below sunspots as well as long-observed downflows from chromospheric/coronal arch filaments into sunspots from their earliest appearance. Time-distance helioseismology has been effective in revealing flows related to sunspots to depths of 20 Mm. Ring diagram analysis shows a statistically significant preference for upflows to precede major active region emergence and downflows after flux emergence but both are often observed together or sometimes not detected. From deep-focus helioseismic techniques for seeking magnetic flux below the photosphere prior major active regions, there is evidence of acoustic travel-time perturbation signatures rising in the limited range of depths of 42-75 Mm but these have not been verified or found at more shallow depths by helioseismic holographic techniques. The development of active regions from clusters of elementary bipoles appears to be the same irrespective of how much flux an active region eventually develops. This property would be consistent with the magnetic fields of large active regions being generated in the same way and close the same depth as small active regions in a shallow zone below the photosphere. All evidence considered together, understanding the origins of the magnetic fields of solar cycles boils down to learning how and where elementary bipoles are generated beneath the photosphere.

QUIET-TIME SUPRATHERMAL (∼0.1–1.5 keV) ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR WIND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang

2016-03-20

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (∼0.1–1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ∼0.1–1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature T{sub eff}. We also calculate the number density n and average energy E{sub avg} of strahl andmore » halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ∼0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and T{sub eff} for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity)« less

Total ozone variations at Reykjavik since 1957

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bjarnason, G.G.; Rognvaldsson, O.E.; Sigfusson, T.I.

1993-12-01

Total ozone measurements using a Dobson spectrophotometer have been performed on a regular basis at Reykjavik (65 deg 08 min N, 21 deg 54 min W), Iceland, since 1957. The data set for the entire period of observations has been critically examined. Due to problems related to the calibration of the instrument the data record of ozone observations is divided into two periods in the following analysis (1957-1977 and 1977-1990). A statistical model was developed to fit the data and estimate long-term changes in total ozone. The model includes seasonal variations, solar cycle influences, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) effects, and linearmore » trends. Some variants of the model are applied to investigate to what extent the estimated trends depend on the form of the model. Trend analysis of the revised data reveals a statistically significant linear decrease of 0.11 +/- 0.07% per year in the annual total ozone amount during the earlier period and 0.30 +/- 0.11% during the latter. The annual total ozone decline since 1977 is caused by a 0.47 +/- 0.14% decrease per year during the summer with no significant change during the winter or fall. On an annual basis, ozone varies by 3.5 +/- 0.8% over a solar cycle and by 2.1 +/- 0.6% over a QBO for the whole observation period. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is particularly strong in the data during the early months of the year and in the westerly phase of the QBO. The data also suggest a strong response of total ozone to major solar proton events.« less

Statistical study of the correlation of hard X-ray and type 3 radio bursts in solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Russell J.; Petrosian, Vahe

1989-01-01

A large number of hard X-ray events which were recorded by the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) during the maximum of the 21st solar cycle (circa 1980) are analyzed in order to study their statistical correlation with type 3 bursts. The earlier finding by Kane (1981) are confirmed qualitatively that flares with stronger hard X-ray emission, especially those with harder spectra, are more likely to produce a type 3 burst. The observed distribution of hard X-ray and type 3 events and their correlations are shown to be satisfactorily described by a bivariate distribution consistent with the assumption of statistical linear dependence of X-ray and radio burst intensities. From this analysis it was determined that the distribution of the ratio of X-ray intensity (in counts/s) to type 3 intensity (in solar flux units) which has a wide range and a typical value for this ratio of about 10. The implications of the results for impulsive phase models are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, J.; Feng, W., E-mail: fengwen69@sina.cn

Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) extended the Greenwich series of sunspot area from the year 1874 back to 1821. The ESAI's yearly sunspot area in the northern and southern hemispheres from 1821 to 2013 is utilized to investigate characteristics of the north–south hemispherical asymmetry of sunspot activity. Periodical behavior of about 12 solar cycles is also confirmed from the ESAI data set to exist in dominant hemispheres, linear regression lines of yearly asymmetry values, and cumulative counts of yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres for solar cycles. The period is also inferred to appear in both themore » cumulative difference in the yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres over the entire time interval and in its statistical Student's t-test. The hemispherical bias of sunspot activity should be regarded as an impossible stochastic phenomenon over a long time period.« less

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogurtsov, M. G.; Jungner, H.; Lindholm, M.; Helama, S.; Dergachev, V. A.

2009-12-01

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60-130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60-85 and 85-130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.

Ancient cellular structures and modern humans: change of survival strategies before prolonged low solar activity period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragulskaya, Mariya; Rudenchik, Evgeniy; Gromozova, Elena; Voychuk, Sergei; Kachur, Tatiana

The study of biotropic effects of modern space weather carries the information about the rhythms and features of adaptation of early biological systems to the outer space influence. The influence of cosmic rays, ultraviolet waves and geomagnetic field on early life has its signs in modern biosphere processes. These phenomena could be experimentally studied on present-day biological objects. Particularly inorganic polyphosphates, so-called "fossil molecules", attracts special attention as the most ancient molecules which arose in inanimate nature and have been accompanying biological objects at all stages of evolution. Polyphosphates-containing graves of yeast's cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain Y-517, , from the Ukrainian Collection of Microorganisms was studied by daily measurements during 2000-2013 years. The IZMIRAN daily data base of physiological parameters dynamics during 2000-2013 years were analyzed simultaneously (25 people). The analysis showed significant simultaneous changes of the statistical parameters of the studied biological systems in 2004 -2006. The similarity of simultaneous changes of adaptation strategies of human organism and the cell structures of Saccharomyces cerevisiae during the 23-24 cycles of solar activity are discussed. This phenomenon could be due to a replacement of bio-effective parameters of space weather during the change from 23rd to 24th solar activity cycle and nonstandard geophysical peculiarities of the 24th solar activity cycle. It could be suggested that the observed similarity arose as the optimization of evolution selection of the living systems in expectation of probable prolonged period of low solar activity (4-6 cycles of solar activity).

Interhemispheric differences and solar cycle effects of the high-latitude ionospheric convection patterns deduced from Cluster EDI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Förster, Matthias; Haaland, Stein

2015-04-01

Here, we present a study of ionospheric convection at high latitudes that is based on satellite measurements of the Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) on-board the Cluster satellites, which were obtained over a full solar cycle (2001-2013). The mapped drift measurements are covering both hemispheres and a variety of different solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The large amount of data allows us to perform more detailed statistical studies. We show that flow patterns and polar cap potentials can differ between the two hemispheres on statistical average for a given IMF orientation. In particular, during southward directed IMF conditions, and thus enhanced energy input from the solar wind, we find that the southern polar cap has a higher cross polar cap potential. We also find persistent north-south asymmetries which cannot be explained by external drivers alone. Much of these asymmetries can probably be explained by significant differences in the strength and configuration of the geomagnetic field between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Since the ionosphere is magnetically connected to the magnetosphere, this difference will also be reflected in the magnetosphere in the form of different feedback from the two hemispheres. Consequently, local ionospheric conditions and the geomagnetic field configuration are important for north-south asymmetries in large regions of geospace. The average convection is higher during periods with high solar activity. Although local ionospheric conditions may play a role, we mainly attribute this to higher geomagnetic activity due to enhanced solar wind - magnetosphere interactions.

The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Y. Y.

2018-03-01

We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

Application of the Maximum Amplitude-Early Rise Correlation to Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2004-01-01

On the basis of the maximum amplitude-early rise correlation, cycle 23 could have been predicted to be about the size of the mean cycle as early as 12 mo following cycle minimum. Indeed, estimates for the size of cycle 23 throughout its rise consistently suggested a maximum amplitude that would not differ appreciably from the mean cycle, contrary to predictions based on precursor information. Because cycle 23 s average slope during the rising portion of the solar cycle measured 2.4, computed as the difference between the conventional maximum (120.8) and minimum (8) amplitudes divided by the ascent duration in months (47), statistically speaking, it should be a cycle of shorter period. Hence, conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 should occur before December 2006, probably near July 2006 (+/-4 mo). However, if cycle 23 proves to be a statistical outlier, then conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 would be delayed until after July 2007, probably near December 2007 (+/-4 mo). In anticipation of cycle 24, a chart and table are provided for easy monitoring of the nearness and size of its maximum amplitude once onset has occurred (with respect to the mean cycle and using the updated maximum amplitude-early rise relationship).

Proton Fluxes Measured by the PAMELA Experiment from the Minimum to the Maximum Solar Activity for Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, M.; Munini, R.; Boezio, M.; Di Felice, V.; Adriani, O.; Barbarino, G. C.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Bellotti, R.; Bongi, M.; Bonvicini, V.; Bottai, S.; Bruno, A.; Cafagna, F.; Campana, D.; Carlson, P.; Casolino, M.; Castellini, G.; De Santis, C.; Galper, A. M.; Karelin, A. V.; Koldashov, S. V.; Koldobskiy, S.; Krutkov, S. Y.; Kvashnin, A. N.; Leonov, A.; Malakhov, V.; Marcelli, L.; Marcelli, N.; Mayorov, A. G.; Menn, W.; Mergè, M.; Mikhailov, V. V.; Mocchiutti, E.; Monaco, A.; Mori, N.; Osteria, G.; Panico, B.; Papini, P.; Pearce, M.; Picozza, P.; Ricci, M.; Ricciarini, S. B.; Simon, M.; Sparvoli, R.; Spillantini, P.; Stozhkov, Y. I.; Vacchi, A.; Vannuccini, E.; Vasilyev, G.; Voronov, S. A.; Yurkin, Y. T.; Zampa, G.; Zampa, N.; Potgieter, M. S.; Raath, J. L.

2018-02-01

Precise measurements of the time-dependent intensity of the low-energy (<50 GeV) galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are fundamental to test and improve the models that describe their propagation inside the heliosphere. In particular, data spanning different solar activity periods, i.e., from minimum to maximum, are needed to achieve comprehensive understanding of such physical phenomena. The minimum phase between solar cycles 23 and 24 was peculiarly long, extending up to the beginning of 2010 and followed by the maximum phase, reached during early 2014. In this Letter, we present proton differential spectra measured from 2010 January to 2014 February by the PAMELA experiment. For the first time the GCR proton intensity was studied over a wide energy range (0.08–50 GeV) by a single apparatus from a minimum to a maximum period of solar activity. The large statistics allowed the time variation to be investigated on a nearly monthly basis. Data were compared and interpreted in the context of a state-of-the-art three-dimensional model describing the GCRs propagation through the heliosphere.

Lessons Learned from 10 Years of STEREO Solar Wind Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, L. K.; Russell, C. T.; Luhmann, J. G.; Galvin, A. B.

2017-12-01

We have conducted long-term observations of large-scale solar wind structures since the launch of STEREO spacecraft, specifically interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), slow-to-fast stream interaction regions (SIRs), and interplanetary shocks. In combination with our previous observations of the same solar wind structures in 1995-2009 using Wind/ACE data and the same identification criteria, we have first studied the solar cycle variations of these structures, especially for the same phases of solar cycles 23 and 24. Attributing the shocks to the interplanetary drivers, we have statistically compared the shocks driven by ICMEs and SIRs, and explained the shocks without a clear local driver. In addition, using the longitudinal and latitudinal separations between the twin spacecraft, we have investigated the recurrence and variability of ICMEs and SIRs, and gained the critical implications for the proposed L5 mission. At last, we have associated the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings with the ICMEs and SIRs, and compared the properties of SIRs with and without HCS crossings, which correspond to the helmet streamers and pseudostreamers, respectively. The findings are important constraints on the theories of slow wind origin.

Statistical validation of a solar wind propagation model from 1 to 10 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Bertalan; Hansen, Kenneth C.

2008-08-01

A one-dimensional (1-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code is applied to propagate the solar wind from 1 AU through 10 AU, i.e., beyond the heliocentric distance of Saturn's orbit, in a non-rotating frame of reference. The time-varying boundary conditions at 1 AU are obtained from hourly solar wind data observed near the Earth. Although similar MHD simulations have been carried out and used by several authors, very little work has been done to validate the statistical accuracy of such solar wind predictions. In this paper, we present an extensive analysis of the prediction efficiency, using 12 selected years of solar wind data from the major heliospheric missions Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses. We map the numerical solution to each spacecraft in space and time, and validate the simulation, comparing the propagated solar wind parameters with in-situ observations. We do not restrict our statistical analysis to the times of spacecraft alignment, as most of the earlier case studies do. Our superposed epoch analysis suggests that the prediction efficiency is significantly higher during periods with high recurrence index of solar wind speed, typically in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. Among the solar wind variables, the solar wind speed can be predicted to the highest accuracy, with a linear correlation of 0.75 on average close to the time of opposition. We estimate the accuracy of shock arrival times to be as high as 10-15 hours within ±75 d from apparent opposition during years with high recurrence index. During solar activity maximum, there is a clear bias for the model to predicted shocks arriving later than observed in the data, suggesting that during these periods, there is an additional acceleration mechanism in the solar wind that is not included in the model.

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Karen L. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

2016-02-01

We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilpua, E. K. J.; Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show thatmore » while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.« less

What can the annual 10Be solar activity reconstructions tell us about historic space weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Luke; McCracken, Ken G.; Owens, Mat J.; Lockwood, Mike

2018-04-01

Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305-3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find evidence that the MB15 reconstructions appear statistically different in years with great geomagnetic storms.

Hemispheric asymmetries in high-latitude ionospheric convection and upper atmosphere neutral wind circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, M.; Cnossen, I.; Haaland, S.

2015-12-01

Recent observations have shown that the ionospheric/thermospheric response to solar wind and IMF dependent processes in the magnetosphere can be very dissimilar in the Northern and Southern polar regions. We present statistical studies of both the high-latitude ionospheric convection and the upper thermospheric circulation patterns obtained over almost a full solar cycle during the first decade of this century by measurements of the electron drift instrument (EDI) on board the Cluster satellites and by the accelerometer on board the CHAMP spacecraft, respectively. The asymmetries are attributed to the non-dipolar portions of the Earth's magnetic field that constitute hemispheric differences in magnetic flux densities, different offsets of the invariant geomagnetic poles, and generally in different field configurations of both hemispheres. Seasonal and solar cycle effects of the asymmetries are considered and first trials to explain the effects by numerical modeling are presented.

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Steenrod, Steve; Frith, Stacey

2003-01-01

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Periodic Analysis Between Solar Variability and the Earth's Temperature From Centuries to Ten Thousand Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Feng, X. S.

2014-12-01

The global warming is one of the hottest topics for both scientists and the public at present. Strong evidences have shown that the global warming is related to the man-made increasing greenhouse gas levels. Besides the artificial factors, natural forces also contribute to the Earth's climate change. Among them, solar activity is an important ingredient of the natural driving forces of the Earth's climate. In this study, two data sets are adopted to investigate the periodicities of both solar activity and the variation of the Earth temperature as well as their correlations based on the wavelet analysis and cross correlation method. The first one is a directly measured data set covering centuries, while the second one is the reconstructed data during the past 11,000 years. The obtained results demonstrate that solar activity and the Earth's temperature have significant resonance cycles, and the Earth's temperature has periodic variations similar to those of solar activity. For centuries, these common periodicities include the 22-year cycle and the 50-year cycle. While for 11,000 years, they are the 200-year, 500-year, 1000-year, and 2000-year cycles. Correlation analysis reveals that the correlations between solar variability and the Earth's temperature are statistically significant. The correlation coefficient (C.C.) between the 11-year running averaged Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and the ocean temperature is 0.88 during the past 133 years of global warming. While for 11,000 years, the C.C. between the 500-year running averages of sunspot number (SSN) and the Earth temperature (r=0.51, p=1%) is stronger than that between the temperature and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (r=0.35, p=10%). All these support that solar activity should have non-ignorable effects on the Earth's climate change, especially before the modern industrial time.

ESTIMATING THE HEIGHT OF CMEs ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SEP EVENT AT THE ONSET OF THE METRIC TYPE II RADIO BURST DURING SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mäkelä, P.; Akiyama, S.; Xie, H.

2015-06-10

We studied the coronal mass ejection (CME) height at the onset of 59 metric type II radio bursts associated with major solar energetic particle (SEP) events, excluding ground level enhancements (GLEs), during solar cycles 23 and 24. We calculated CME heights using a simple flare-onset method used by Gopalswamy et al. to estimate CME heights at the metric type II onset for cycle 23 GLEs. We found the mean CME height for non-GLE events (1.72 R{sub ☉}) to be ∼12% greater than that (1.53 R{sub ☉}) for cycle 23 GLEs. The difference could be caused by more impulsive acceleration ofmore » the GLE-associated CMEs. For cycle 24 non-GLE events, we compared the CME heights obtained using the flare-onset method and the three-dimensional spherical-shock fitting method and found the correlation to be good (CC = 0.68). We found the mean CME height for cycle 23 non-GLE events (1.79 R{sub ☉}) to be greater than that for cycle 24 non-GLE events (1.58 R{sub ☉}), but statistical tests do not definitely reject the possibility of coincidence. We suggest that the lower formation height of the shocks during cycle 24 indicates a change in the Alfvén speed profile because solar magnetic fields are weaker and plasma density levels are closer to the surface than usual during cycle 24. We also found that complex type III bursts showing diminution of type III emission in the 7–14 MHz frequency range are more likely associated with events with a CME height at the type II onset above 2 R{sub ☉}, supporting suggestions that the CME/shock structure causes the feature.« less

TRACKING THE SOLAR CYCLE THROUGH IBEX OBSERVATIONS OF ENERGETIC NEUTRAL ATOM FLUX VARIATIONS AT THE HELIOSPHERIC POLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenfeld, D. B.; Janzen, P. H.; Bzowski, M., E-mail: dan.reisenfeld@umontana.edu, E-mail: paul.janzen@umontana.edu, E-mail: bzowski@cbk.waw.pl

With seven years of Interstellar Boundary Explorer ( IBEX ) observations, from 2009 to 2015, we can now trace the time evolution of heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) through over half a solar cycle. At the north and south ecliptic poles, the spacecraft attitude allows for continuous coverage of the ENA flux; thus, signal from these regions has much higher statistical accuracy and time resolution than anywhere else in the sky. By comparing the solar wind dynamic pressure measured at 1 au with the heliosheath plasma pressure derived from the observed ENA fluxes, we show that the heliosheath pressure measuredmore » at the poles correlates well with the solar cycle. The analysis requires time-shifting the ENA measurements to account for the travel time out and back from the heliosheath, which allows us to estimate the scale size of the heliosphere in the polar directions. We arrive at an estimated distance to the center of the ENA source region in the north of 220 au and in the south a distance of 190 au. We also find a good correlation between the solar cycle and the ENA energy spectra at the poles. In particular, the ENA flux for the highest IBEX energy channel (4.3 keV) is quite closely correlated with the areas of the polar coronal holes, in both the north and south, consistent with the notion that polar ENAs at this energy originate from pickup ions of the very high speed wind (∼700 km s{sup −1}) that emanates from polar coronal holes.« less

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. A.; Davies, J. A.; Barnes, D.; Byrne, J. P.; Perry, C. H.; Bothmer, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Gallagher, P. T.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Möstl, C.; Rodriguez, L.; Rouillard, A. P.; Odstrčil, D.

2018-05-01

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board NASA's twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras, while following papers will present analyses of CME propagation through the entire HI fields of view. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites do not simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes, while at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

Design solutions for the solar cell interconnect fatigue fracture problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-01-01

Mechanical fatigue of solar cell interconnects is a major failure mechanism in photovoltaic arrays. A comprehensive approach to the reliability design of interconnects, together with extensive design data for the fatigue properties of copper interconnects, has been published. This paper extends the previous work, developing failure prediction (fatigue) data for additional interconnect material choices, including aluminum and a variety of copper-Invar and copper-steel claddings. An improved global fatigue function is used to model the probability-of-failure statistics of each material as a function of level and number of cycles of applied strain. Life-cycle economic analyses are used to evaluate the relative merits of each material choce. The copper-Invar clad composites demonstrate superior performance over pure copper. Aluminum results are disappointing.

A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. II. Reference Dynamo Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-01-01

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

Statistical properties of solar Hα flare activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Linhua; Zhang, Xiaojuan; An, Jianmei; Cai, Yunfang

2017-12-01

Magnetic field structures on the solar atmosphere are not symmetric distribution in the northern and southern hemispheres, which is an important aspect of quasi-cyclical evolution of magnetic activity indicators that are related to solar dynamo theories. Three standard analysis techniques are applied to analyze the hemispheric coupling (north-south asymmetry and phase asynchrony) of monthly averaged values of solar Hα flare activity over the past 49 years (from 1966 January to 2014 December). The prominent results are as follows: (1) from a global point of view, solar Hα flare activity on both hemispheres are strongly correlated with each other, but the northern hemisphere precedes the southern one with a phase shift of 7 months; (2) the long-range persistence indeed exists in solar Hα flare activity, but the dynamical complexities in the two hemispheres are not identical; (3) the prominent periodicities of Hα flare activity are 17 years full-disk activity cycle and 11 years Schwabe solar cycle, but the short- and mid-term periodicities cannot determined by monthly time series; (4) by comparing the non-parametric rescaling behavior on a point-by-point basis, the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Hα flare activity are estimated to be ranging from several months to tens of months with an average value of 8.7 months. The analysis results could promote our knowledge on the long-range persistence, the quasi-periodic variation, and the hemispheric asynchrony of solar Hα flare activity on both hemispheres, and possibly provide valuable information for the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity.

A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. I. SURFACE MAGNETIC FLUX EVOLUTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul; Carignan-Dugas, Arnaud, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returnsmore » Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.« less

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Astrostatistical Analysis in Solar and Stellar Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenning, David Craig

This dissertation focuses on developing statistical models and methods to address data-analytic challenges in astrostatistics---a growing interdisciplinary field fostering collaborations between statisticians and astrophysicists. The astrostatistics projects we tackle can be divided into two main categories: modeling solar activity and Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. These categories from Part I and Part II of this dissertation, respectively. The first line of research we pursue involves classification and modeling of evolving solar features. Advances in space-based observatories are increasing both the quality and quantity of solar data, primarily in the form of high-resolution images. To analyze massive streams of solar image data, we develop a science-driven dimension reduction methodology to extract scientifically meaningful features from images. This methodology utilizes mathematical morphology to produce a concise numerical summary of the magnetic flux distribution in solar "active regions'' that (i) is far easier to work with than the source images, (ii) encapsulates scientifically relevant information in a more informative manner than existing schemes (i.e., manual classification schemes), and (iii) is amenable to sophisticated statistical analyses. In a related line of research, we perform a Bayesian analysis of the solar cycle using multiple proxy variables, such as sunspot numbers. We take advantage of patterns and correlations among the proxy variables to model solar activity using data from proxies that have become available more recently, while also taking advantage of the long history of observations of sunspot numbers. This model is an extension of the Yu et al. (2012) Bayesian hierarchical model for the solar cycle that used the sunspot numbers alone. Since proxies have different temporal coverage, we devise a multiple imputation scheme to account for missing data. We find that incorporating multiple proxies reveals important features of the solar cycle that are missed when the model is fit using only the sunspot numbers. In Part II of this dissertation we focus on two related lines of research involving Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. We first focus on modeling multiple stellar populations in star clusters. It has long been assumed that all star clusters are comprised of single stellar populations---stars that formed at roughly the same time from a common molecular cloud. However, recent studies have produced evidence that some clusters host multiple populations, which has far-reaching scientific implications. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for multiple-population star clusters, extending earlier statistical models of stellar evolution (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009, Stein et al. 2013). We also devise an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the complex posterior distribution. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of multiple-population clusters, and also show how model misspecification can be diagnosed. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We also explore statistical properties of the estimators and determine that the influence of the prior distribution does not diminish with larger sample sizes, leading to non-standard asymptotics. In a final line of research, we present the first-ever attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of white dwarfs. This quantity has important implications for both astrophysics and fundamental nuclear physics, but is currently unknown. We use a numerical study to demonstrate that assuming an incorrect value for the carbon fraction leads to incorrect white-dwarf ages of star clusters. Finally, we present our attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of the white dwarfs in the well-studied star cluster 47 Tucanae.

On the influence of solar activity on the mid-latitude sporadic E layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzopane, Michael; Pignalberi, Alessio; Pietrella, Marco

2015-09-01

To investigate the influence of solar cycle variability on the sporadic E layer (Es), hourly measurements of the critical frequency of the Es ordinary mode of propagation, foEs, and of the blanketing frequency of the Es layer, fbEs, recorded from January 1976 to December 2009 at the Rome (Italy) ionospheric station (41.8° N, 12.5° E), were examined. The results are: (1) a high positive correlation between the F10.7 solar index and foEs as well as between F10.7 and fbEs, both for the whole data set and for each solar cycle separately, the correlation between F10.7 and fbEs being much higher than the one between F10.7 and foEs; (2) a decreasing long-term trend of the F10.7, foEs and fbEs time series, with foEs decreasing more rapidly than F10.7 and fbEs; (3) clear and statistically significant peaks at 11 years in the foEs and fbEs time series, inferred from Lomb-Scargle periodograms.

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2009-01-01

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Flux Enhancements of > 30 keV Electrons at Low Drift Shells L < 1.2 During Last Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvorova, A. V.

2017-12-01

We present results of statistical analysis of enhancements of >30 keV electrons observed by the NOAA/POES satellites during solar cycles 23 and 24 (1998-2016) at low drift shells L < 1.2, so-called forbidden zone. We collected 1,750 days ( 25% of the total time) when fluxes of the forbidden energetic electrons (FEE) exceeded 103 (cm2 s sr)-1. We found 530 days, when FEE fluxes reached high intensity from 104 up to 107 (cm2 s sr)-1. It was found that the FEE enhancements were observed mostly often at the declining phases and solar minimum. More than 85% of the events occurred under fast solar wind (V > 450 km/s), high substorm activity (AL >150 nT), and enhanced interplanetary electric field perturbations (VδB > 1.5 mV/m). The FEE occurrence rate peaks around the local midnight. We have also found a quite unexpected annual variation of the FEE occurrence rate with a pronounced maximum from May to September, a minor peak in December-January, and minima at the equinoxes. The May-September peak, persisting at different solar cycle phases, was assumed to originate from high conductivity in the auroral ionosphere, which is controlled by the dipole tilt angle and provides better conditions for penetration of electric field perturbations into the inner magnetosphere. This allows explanation of the shape and amplitude of annual variation in the FEE occurrence rate from the convolution of the solar wind driver with the penetration conditions.

Coronal Holes and Solar f -Mode Wave Scattering Off Linear Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess Webber, Shea A.

2016-11-01

Coronal holes (CHs) are solar atmospheric features that have reduced emission in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum due to decreased plasma density along open magnetic field lines. CHs are the source of the fast solar wind, can influence other solar activity, and track the solar cycle. Our interest in them deals with boundary detection near the solar surface. Detecting CH boundaries is important for estimating their size and tracking their evolution through time, as well as for comparing the physical properties within and outside of the feature. In this thesis, we (1) investigate CHs using statistical properties and image processing techniques on EUV images to detect CH boundaries in the low corona and chromosphere. SOHO/EIT data is used to locate polar CH boundaries on the solar limb, which are then tracked through two solar cycles. Additionally, we develop an edge-detection algorithm that we use on SDO/AIA data of a polar hole extension with an approximately linear boundary. These locations are used later to inform part of the helioseismic investigation; (2) develop a local time-distance (TD) helioseismology technique that can be used to detect CH boundary signatures at the photospheric level. We employ a new averaging scheme that makes use of the quasi-linear topology of elongated scattering regions, and create simulated data to test the new technique and compare results of some associated assumptions. This method enhances the wave propagation signal in the direction perpendicular to the linear feature and reduces the computational time of the TD analysis. We also apply a new statistical analysis of the significance of differences between the TD results; and (3) apply the TD techniques to solar CH data from SDO/HMI. The data correspond to the AIA data used in the edge-detection algorithm on EUV images. We look for statistically significant differences between the TD results inside and outside the CH region. In investigation (1), we found that the polar CH areas did not change significantly between minima, even though the magnetic field strength weakened. The results of (2) indicate that TD helioseismology techniques can be extended to make use of feature symmetry in the domain. The linear technique used here produces results that differ between a linear scattering region and a circular scattering region, shown using the simulated data algorithm. This suggests that using usual TD methods on scattering regions that are radially asymmetric may produce results with signatures of the anisotropy. The results of (1) and (3) indicate that the TD signal within our CH is statistically significantly different compared to unrelated quiet sun results. Surprisingly, the TD results in the quiet sun near the CH boundary also show significant differences compared to the separate quiet sun.

The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu

2017-08-01

The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares.

Strong Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Pulses during Solar Cycle 23 and Their Impacts on Geosynchronous Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, P.

2015-12-01

Solar wind dynamic pressure pulse (DPP) structures, across which the dynamic pressure abruptly changes over timescales from a few seconds to several minutes, are often observed in the near-Earth space environment. In this investigation, we first present a statistical study on the properties of strong dynamic pressure pulses in the solar wind during solar cycle 23. It is found that overwhelming majority of DPPs are associated with the solar wind disturbances including the CME-related flows, the corotating interaction regions, as well as the complex ejecta. The annual variations of the averaged occurrence rate of DPPs are roughly in phase with the solar activities. Although the variabilities of geosynchronous magnetic fields (GMFs) due to the impact of positive DPPs have been well established, there appears no systematic investigations on the response of GMFs to negative DPPs. Here we also study the decompression/compression effects of very strong negative/positive DPPs on GMFs under northward IMFs. In response to the decompression of strong negative DPPs, GMFs on dayside, near the dawn and dusk on nightside are generally depressed. But near the midnight region, the responses of GMF are very diverse, being either positive or negative. For part of events when GOES is located at the midnight sector, GMF is found to abnormally increase as the result of magnetospheric decompression caused by negative DPPs. It is known that on certain conditions magnetic depression of nightside GMFs can be caused by the impact of positive DPPs. Here we found that, a stronger pressure enhancement may have a higher probability of producing the exceptional depression of GMF at midnight region. Statistically, both the decompression effect of strong negative DPPs and the compression effect of strong positive DPPs depend on the magnetic local time, being stronger at the noon sector.

A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. II. REFERENCE DYNAMO SOLUTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probabilitymore » of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.« less

The mean coronal magnetic field determined from Helios Faraday rotation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patzold, M.; Bird, M. K.; Volland, H.; Levy, G. S.; Seidel, B. L.; Stelzried, C. T.

1987-01-01

Coronal Faraday rotation of the linearly polarized carrier signals of the Helios spacecraft was recorded during the regularly occurring solar occultations over almost a complete solar cycle from 1975 to 1984. These measurements are used to determine the average strength and radial variation of the coronal magnetic field at solar minimum at solar distances from 3-10 solar radii, i.e., the range over which the complex fields at the coronal base are transformed into the interplanetary spiral. The mean coronal magnetic field in 1975-1976 was found to decrease with radial distance according to r exp-alpha, where alpha = 2.7 + or - 0.2. The mean field magnitude was 1.0 + or - 0.5 x 10 to the -5th tesla at a nominal solar distance of 5 solar radii. Possibly higher magnetic field strengths were indicated at solar maximum, but a lack of data prevented a statistical determination of the mean coronal field during this epoch.

Statistical properties of correlated solar flares and coronal mass ejections in cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarnio, Alicia

2018-01-01

Outstanding problems in understanding early stellar systems include mass loss, angular momentum evolution, and the effects of energetic events on the surrounding environs. The latter of these drives much research into our own system's space weather and the development of predictive algorithms for geomagnetic storms. So dually motivated, we have leveraged a big-data approach to combine two decades of GOES and LASCO data to identify a large sample of spatially and temporally correlated solar flares and CMEs. In this presentation, we revisit the analysis of Aarnio et al. (2011), adding 10 years of data and further exploring the relationships between correlated flare and CME properties. We compare the updated data set results to those previously obtained, and discuss the effects of selecting smaller time windows within solar cycles 23 and 24 on the empirically defined relationships between correlated flare and CME properties. Finally, we discuss a newly identified large sample of potentially interesting correlated flares and CMEs perhaps erroneously excluded from previous searches.

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

The lunar cycle: effects of full moon on renal colic.

PubMed

Molaee Govarchin Ghalae, Hojjat; Zare, Samad; Choopanloo, Maryam; Rahimian, Roya

2011-01-01

To evaluate renal colic frequency in different seasons and around full moon. A total of 1481 patients with renal colic were studied retrospectively addressing days of a month both in solar and lunar calendar. The mean age of the patients was 57 ± 13 years. Total admissions in summer was 613; of which 288 (41%), 199 (39%), and 126 (43%) were in years 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively. The highest frequencies in solar calendar were on days 2 (56), 20 (63), and 27 (59) and the lowest were on days 6 (36), 22 (38), 26 (34), and 31 (31). We did not find any statistically significant association according to solar calendar (P = .3). In lunar calendar, most of the admissions were on day 15 (69) and the lowest rates were on days 1 (25) and 30 (26), which was statistically significant (P = .04). Renal colic frequency is not correlated with solar calendar, but its highest frequency in lunar calendar is in the middle of the month period. Although we found a correlation between full moon effect and renal tide, but this is a new window for further studies.

Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Gonzalez, Walter D.

1998-01-01

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine. A few years later, speculation on a causal relationship between flares and storms arose when Carrington reported that a large magnetic storm followed the great September 1859 solar flare. However, it was not until this century that a well-accepted statistical survey on large solar flares and geomagnetic storms was performed, and a significant correlation between flares and geomagnetic storms was noted. Although the two phenomena, one on the Sun and the other on the Earth, were statistically correlated, the exact physical linkage was still an unknown at this time. Various hypotheses were proposed, but it was not until interplanetary spacecraft measurements were available that a high-speed plasma stream rich in helium was associated with an intense solar flare. The velocity of the solar wind increased just prior to and during the helium passage, identifying the solar ejecta for the first time. Space plasma measurements and Skylab's coronagraph images of coronal mass elections (CMES) from the Sun firmly established the plasma link between the Sun and the Earth. One phenomenon associated with magnetic storms is brilliant "blood" red auroras, as shown.

Ionospheric Change and Solar EUV Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, J. J.; David, M.; Jensen, J. B.; Schunk, R. W.

2011-12-01

The ionosphere has been quantitatively monitored for the past six solar cycles. The past few years of observations are showing trends that differ from the prior cycles! Our good statistical relationships between the solar radio flux index at 10.7 cm, the solar EUV Irradiance, and the ionospheric F-layer peak density are showing indications of divergence! Present day discussion of the Sun-Earth entering a Dalton Minimum would suggest change is occurring in the Sun, as the driver, followed by the Earth, as the receptor. The dayside ionosphere is driven by the solar EUV Irradiance. But different components of this spectrum affect the ionospheric layers differently. For a first time the continuous high cadence EUV spectra from the SDO EVE instrument enable ionospheric scientists the opportunity to evaluate solar EUV variability as a driver of ionospheric variability. A definitive understanding of which spectral components are responsible for the E- and F-layers of the ionosphere will enable assessments of how over 50 years of ionospheric observations, the solar EUV Irradiance has changed. If indeed the evidence suggesting the Sun-Earth system is entering a Dalton Minimum periods is correct, then the comprehensive EVE solar EUV Irradiance data base combined with the ongoing ionospheric data bases will provide a most fortuitous fiduciary reference baseline for Sun-Earth dependencies. Using the EVE EUV Irradiances, a physics based ionospheric model (TDIM), and 50 plus years of ionospheric observation from Wallops Island (Virginia) the above Sun-Earth ionospheric relationship will be reported on.

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

Variation of Solar, Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Parameters during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Suyeon; Kim, Bogyeong

2013-06-01

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

Solar-Cycle Variability of Magnetosheath Fluctuations at Earth and Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, N. K.; Narita, Y.; Kovacs, P.

2014-12-01

The magnetosheath is a region between the bow-shock and magnetopause and the magnetosheath plasma is mostly in the turbulent state. In the present investigation we put an effort to closely examine the magnetosheath fluctuations dependency on the solar-cycles (solar-maximum and solar minimum) at the magnetized planetary body (Earth) and their comparison with the un-magnetized planetary body (Venus) for the solar minimum. We use the CLUSTER FGM data for the solar-maximum (2001-2002), solar-minimum (2006-2008) and Venus fluxgate magnetometer data for the solar-minimum (2006-2008) to perform a comparative statistical study on the energy spectra and probability density function (PDF) and asses the spectral features of the magnetic fluctuations of the both planetary bodies. In the comparison we study the relation between the inertial ranges of the spectra and the temporal scales of non-Gaussian magnetic fluctuations derived from PDF analyses. The first can refer to turbulent cascade dynamics, while the latter may indicate intermittency. We first transformed the magnetic field data into mean field aligned coordinate system with respect to the large-scale magnetic field direction and then after we compute the power spectral density with the help of Welch algorithm. The computed energy spectra of Earth's magnetosheath show a moderate variability with the solar-cycles and have a broader inertial range. However the estimated energy spectra for the solar-minimum at Venus give the clear evidence of the existence of the break point in the vicinity of the ion gyroradius. After the break-point the energy spectra become steeper and show a distinctive spectral scales which is interpreted as the realization of the begging of the energy cascade. We also briefly address the influence of turbulence on the plasma transport and wave dynamics responsible for the spectral break and predict spectral features of the energy spectra for the solar-maximum at Venus based on the results obtained for the solar-minimum. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement number 313038/STORM.

The Solar Cycle.

PubMed

Hathaway, David H

The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24. Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/lrsp-2015-4.

Responses of Solar Irradiance and the Ionosphere to an Intense Activity Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Wan, Weixing

2018-03-01

Solar rotation (SR) variation dominates solar extremely ultraviolet (EUV) changes on the timescale of days. The F10.7 index is usually used as an indicator for solar EUV. The SR variation of F10.7 significantly enhanced during the 2008th-2009th Carrington rotations (CRs) owing to an intense active region; F10.7 increased about 180 units during that SR period. That was the most prominent SR variation of F10.7 during solar cycle 23. In this paper, global electron content (GEC) is used to investigate ionospheric response to that strong variation of solar irradiance indicated by F10.7. The variation of GEC with F10.7 was anomalous (GEC-F10.7 slope significantly decreased) during the 2008th-2009th CRs; however, GEC versus EUV variation during that period was consistent with that during adjacent time intervals when using Solar Heliospheric Observatory/Solar EUV Monitor 26-34 nm EUV measurements. The reason is that F10.7 response to that intense active region was much stronger than EUV response; thus, the EUV-F10.7 slope decreased. We confirmed decreased EUV-F10.7 slope during the 2008th-2009th CRs for different wavelengths within 27-120 nm using Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Solar EUV Experiment high spectral resolution EUV measurements. And on the basis of Solar Heliospheric Observatory/Solar EUV Monitor EUV measurements during solar cycle 23, we further presented that EUV-F10.7 slope statistically tends to decrease when the SR variation of F10.7 significantly enhances. Moreover, we found that ionospheric time lag effect to EUV is exaggerated when using F10.7, owing to the time lag effect of EUV to F10.7.

Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals related to the 11-year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruschke, T.; Kunze, M.; Matthes, K. B.; Langematz, U.; Wahl, S.

2017-12-01

Although state-of-the-art reconstructions based on proxies and (semi-)empirical models converge in terms of total solar irradiance, they still significantly differ in terms of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with respect to the mean spectral distribution of energy input and temporal variability. This study aims at quantifying uncertainties for the Earth's climate related to the 11-year solar cycle by forcing two chemistry-climate models (CCMs) - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - with five different SSI reconstructions (NRLSSI1, NRLSSI2, SATIRE-T, SATIRE-S, CMIP6-SSI) and the reference spectrum RSSV1-ATLAS3, derived from observations. We conduct a unique set of timeslice experiments. External forcings and boundary conditions are fixed and identical for all experiments, except for the solar forcing. The set of analyzed simulations consists of one solar minimum simulation, employing RSSV1-ATLAS3 and five solar maximum experiments. The latter are a result of adding the amplitude of solar cycle 22 according to the five reconstructions to RSSV1-ATLAS3. Our results show that the climate response to the 11y solar cycle is generally robust across CCMs and SSI forcings. However, analyzing the variance of the solar maximum ensemble by means of ANOVA-statistics reveals additional information on the uncertainties of the mean climate signals. The annual mean response agrees very well between the two CCMs for most parts of the lower and middle atmosphere. Only the upper mesosphere is subject to significant differences related to the choice of the model. However, the different SSI forcings lead to significant differences in ozone concentrations, shortwave heating rates, and temperature throughout large parts of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Regarding the seasonal evolution of the climate signals, our findings for short wave heating rates, and temperature are similar to the annual means with respect to the relative importance of the choice of the model or the SSI forcing for the respective atmospheric layer. On the other hand, the predominantly dynamically driven signal in zonal wind is quite dependent on the choice of a CCM, mainly due to spatio-temporal shifts of similar responses. Within a given "model world" dynamical signals related to the different SSI forcings agree very well even under this monthly perspective.

Modulation of quasi-biennial ozone oscillations in the equatorial stratosphere by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezverkhnii, Viacheslav; Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Analysis of variation in ozone concentration, temperature, and zonal wind velocity in the equatorial stratosphere at the quasi-biennial (QB) and quasi-decadal (QD) time scales and their relation to the QB and 11-year variations in solar activity is made with the help of wavelet, cross-wavelet and cross-spectral techniques using SBUV/SBUV 2 (ozone), NMC, ERA-40, ERA-Interim (wind and temperature), and radiosonde (wind) data. Sunspot number and 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are used as indices of solar activity. The QD mode with the mean period of 128 months and the QB mode with 28-29 month period are derived from variations in ozone concentration , ozone meridional gradient, temperature and wind velocity. Local maxima of amplitudes of the QD variation in the ozone meridional gradient occur in 4-5 and 20-30 hPa layers. The amplitude of the QB mode of the ozone meridional gradient in 30-50 hPa layer is modulated by the solar cycle in such a way that the amplitude maximum corresponds approximately to the solar cycle maximum. Similar modulation is not found in the QB mode of ozone concentration. While the QD variations in ozone and zonal wind velocity are weak compared to the QB oscillation, the amplitudes of the QD and QB modes of temperature oscillations in the lower and middle stratosphere are close to each other. The modulation of the QB oscillations in the ozone meridional gradient in the lower stratosphere by the 11-year solar cycle is an additional evidence of solar activity influence on the stratosphere, which extends results by Soukharev and Hood (2001), Bezverkhnii and Gruzdev (2007), and Gruzdev and Bezverkhnii (2010). References: 1. Bezverkhnii, V.A., and A.N. Gruzdev. Relation between quasi-decadal and quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity and the equatorial stratospheric wind. Doklady Earth Sciences, 2007, Vol. 415A, No 6, pp. 970-974. 2. Gruzdev, A.N., and V.A. Bezverkhnii. Possible ozone influence on the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere. Doklady Earth Sciences, 2010, Vol. 434, Part 1, pp. 1279-1284. 3. Soukharev, B.E., and L.L. Hood. Possible solar modulation of the equatorial quasi-biennisl oscillation: Additional statistical evidence. J. Geophys. Res., 2001, Vol. 106, No D14, pp. 14855-14868.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Helio-geomagnetic influence in cardiological cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsavrias, Ch.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Moussas, X.; Apostolou, Th.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Papadima, Th.

2013-01-01

The effects of the energetic phenomena of the Sun, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Earth's ionosphere-magnetosphere, through the solar wind, are the sources of the geomagnetic disturbances and storms collectively known as Space Weather. The research on the influence of Space Weather on biological and physiological systems is open. In this work we study the Space Weather impact on Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) distinguishing between ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (STE-ACS) and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) cases. We compare detailed patient records from the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus, Greece) with characteristics of geomagnetic storms (DST), solar wind speed and statistics of flares and CMEs which cover the entire solar cycle 23 (1997-2007). Our results indicate a relationship of ACS to helio-geomagnetic activity as the maximum of the ACS cases follows closely the maximum of the solar cycle. Furthermore, within very active periods, the ratio NSTE-ACS to STE-ACS, which is almost constant during periods of low to medium activity, changes favouring the NSTE-ACS. Most of the ACS cases exhibit a high degree of association with the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms; a smaller, yet significant, part was found associated with periods of fast solar wind without a storm.

Identifying Wave-Particle Interactions in the Solar Wind using Statistical Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broiles, T. W.; Jian, L. K.; Gary, S. P.; Lepri, S. T.; Stevens, M. L.

2017-12-01

Heavy ions are a trace component of the solar wind, which can resonate with plasma waves, causing heating and acceleration relative to the bulk plasma. While wave-particle interactions are generally accepted as the cause of heavy ion heating and acceleration, observations to constrain the physics are lacking. In this work, we statistically link specific wave modes to heavy ion heating and acceleration. We have computed the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of transverse and compressional magnetic waves between 0 and 5.5 Hz using 9 days of ACE and Wind Magnetometer data. The FFTs are averaged over plasma measurement cycles to compute statistical correlations between magnetic wave power at each discrete frequency, and ion kinetic properties measured by ACE/SWICS and Wind/SWE. The results show that lower frequency transverse oscillations (< 0.2 Hz) and higher frequency compressional oscillations (> 0.4 Hz) are positively correlated with enhancements in the heavy ion thermal and drift speeds. Moreover, the correlation results for the He2+ and O6+ were similar on most days. The correlations were often weak, but most days had some frequencies that correlated with statistical significance. This work suggests that the solar wind heavy ions are possibly being heated and accelerated by both transverse and compressional waves at different frequencies.

The solar corona through the sunspot cycle: preparing for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, Jay M.; Seaton, Daniel; Rusin, Vojtech

2017-01-01

We discuss the evolution of the solar corona as seen at eclipses through the solar-activity cycle. In particular, we discuss the variations of the overall shape of the corona through the relative proportions of coronal streamers at equatorial and other latitudes vs. polar plumes. We analyze the two coronal mass ejections that we observed from Gabon at the 2013 total solar eclipse and how they apparently arose from polar crown filaments, one at each pole. We describe the change in the Ludendorff flattening index from solar maximum in one hemisphere as of the 2013 eclipse through the 2015 totality's corona we observed from Svalbard and, with diminishing sunspot and other magnetic activity in each hemisphere, through the 2016 corona we observed from Ternate, Indonesia.We discuss our observational plans for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse from our main site in Salem, Oregon, and subsidiary sites in Madras, OR; Carbondale, IL; and elsewhere, our main site chosen largely by its favorable rating in cloudiness statistics. We discuss the overlapping role of simultaneous spacecraft observations, including those expected not only from NASA's SDO, ESA's SWAP on PROBA2, and NRL/NASA/ESA's LASCO on SOHO but also from the new SUVI (Solar Ultraviolet Imager) aboard NOAA's GOES-R satellite, scheduled as of this writing to have been launched by the time of this January 2017 meeting.Our research on the 2013 and 2015 total solar eclipses was supported by grants from the Committee for Research and Exploration of the National Geographic Society (NG-CRE). Our research on the 2017 total solar eclipse is supported by both NG-CRE and the Solar Terrestrial Program of the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation.

Solar cycle variations in polar cap area measured by the superDARN radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2013-10-01

present a long-term study, from January 1996 to August 2012, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) measured at midnight using the northern hemisphere Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection and is used in this study as a measure of the global magnetospheric dynamics. We find that the yearly distribution of HMB latitudes is single peaked at 64° magnetic latitude for the majority of the 17 year interval. During 2003, the envelope of the distribution shifts to lower latitudes and a second peak in the distribution is observed at 61°. The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function derived by Milan et al. (2012) suggests that the solar wind driving during this year was significantly higher than during the rest of the 17 year interval. In contrast, during the period 2008-2011, HMB distribution shifts to higher latitudes, and a second peak in the distribution is again observed, this time at 68° magnetic latitude. This time interval corresponds to a period of extremely low solar wind driving during the recent extreme solar minimum. This is the first long-term study of the polar cap area and the results demonstrate that there is a close relationship between the solar activity cycle and the area of the polar cap on a large-scale, statistical basis.

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James

2006-01-01

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of AD 774/5 and 993/4. Nature Communications 6: 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms9611 (2015).

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

ON THE VARIATION OF SOLAR RADIUS IN ROTATION CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Z. N.; Kong, D. F.; Xiang, N. B.

2015-01-10

The Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform and CLEANest algorithm are used to study the temporal variations of the solar radius observed at Rio de Janeiro Observatory from 1998 March 2 to 2009 November 6. The CLEANest spectra show several significant periodicities around 400, 312, 93.5, 86.2, 79.4, 70.9, 53.2, and 26.3 days. Then, combining the data on the daily solar radius measured at Calern Observatory and Rio de Janeiro Observatory and the corresponding daily sunspot areas, we study the short-term periodicity of the solar radius and the role of magnetic field in the variation of the solar radius. The rotation periodmore » of the daily solar radius is determined to be statistically significant. Moreover, its temporal evolution is anti-phase with that of sunspot activity, and it is found anti-phase with solar activity. Generally, the stronger solar activity is, the more obvious is the anti-phase relation of radius with solar activity. This indicates that strong magnetic fields have a greater inhibitive effect than weak magnetic fields on the variation of the radius.« less

Solar Cycle Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, William Dean

2012-01-01

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Deep space telecommunications and the solar cycle: A reappraisal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, A. L.

1978-01-01

Observations of density enhancement in the near corona at solar cycle (sunspot) maximum have rather uncritically been interpreted to apply equally well to the extended corona, thus generating concern about the quality of outer planet navigational data at solar cycle maximum. Spacecraft have been deployed almost continuously during the recently completed solar cycle 20, providing two powerful new coronal investigatory data sources: (1) in-situ spacecraft plasma measurements at approximately 1 AU, and (2) plasma effects on monochromatic spacecraft signals at all signal closest approach points. A comprehensive review of these (solar cycle 20) data lead to the somewhat surprising conclusions that for the region of interest of navigational data, the highest levels of charged particle corruption of navigational data can be expected to occur at solar cycle minimum, rather than solar cycle maximum, as previously believed.

From space weather toward space climate time scales: Substorm analysis from 1993 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Viljanen, A.; Mursula, K.; Partamies, N.; Slavin, J. A.

2011-05-01

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993-2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (Rss), substorm duration (Tss), and peak amplitude (Ass) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (∣Ass,decl∣ = 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years (∣Ass,acs∣ = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration, which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-to-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Interannual variations of middle atmospheric temperature as measured by the JPL lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stuart

2008-07-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory Rayleigh-Raman lidar at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii (19.5°N, 155.6°W) has been measuring atmospheric temperature vertical profiles routinely since 1993. Linear regression analysis was applied to the 13.5-yearlong (January 1994 to June 2007) deseasonalized monthly mean lidar temperature time series for each 1-km altitude bin between 15 and 85 km. The regression analysis included components representing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the 11-year solar cycle. Where overlapping was possible, the results were compared to those obtained from the twice-daily National Weather Service (NWS) radiosonde profiles at Hilo (5-30 km) located 60 km east-north-east of the lidar site, and the four-times-daily temperature analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The analysis revealed the dominance of the QBO (1-3 K) in the stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strong winter signature of ENSO in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (˜1.5 K/MEI). Additionally, and for the first time, a statistically significant signature of ENSO was observed in the mesosphere, consistent with the findings of recent model simulations. The annual mean response to the solar cycle shows two statistically significant maxima of ˜1.3 K/100 F10.7 units at 35 and 55 km. The temperature responses to QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle are all maximized in winter. Comparisons with the global ECMWF temperature analysis clearly showed that the middle atmosphere above MLO is under a subtropical/extratropical regime, i.e., generally out-of-phase with that in the equatorial regions, and synchronized to the northern hemisphere winter/spring.

Deciphering The Fall And Rise Of The Dead Sea In Relation To Solar Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousef, Shahinaz M.

2005-03-01

Solar Forcing on closed seas and Lakes is space time dependent. The Cipher of the Dead Sea level variation since 1200 BC is solved in the context of millenium and Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycles time scales. It is found that the pattern of Dead Sea level variation follows the pattern of major millenium solar cycles. The 70 m rise of Dead Sea around 1AD is due to the forcing of the maximum millenium major solar cycle. Although the pattern of the Dead Sea level variation is almost identical to major solar cycles pattern between 1100 and 1980 AD, there is a dating problem of the Dead Sea time series around 1100-1300 AD that time. A discrepancy that should be corrected for the solar and Dead Sea series to fit. Detailed level variations of the Dead Sea level for the past 200 years are solved in terms of the 80-120 years solar Wolf-Gliessberg magnetic cycles. Solar induced climate changes do happen at the turning points of those cycles. Those end-start and maximum turning points are coincident with the change in the solar rotation rate due to the presence of weak solar cycles. Such weak cycles occur in series of few cycles between the end and start of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Another one or two weak r solar cycle occur following the maximum of those Wolf-Gleissberg cycles. Weak cycles induce drop in the energy budget emitted from the sun and reaching the Earth thus causing solar induced climate change. An 8 meter sudden rise of Dead Sea occur prior 1900 AD due to positive solar forcing of the second cycle of the weak cycles series on the Dead Sea. The same second weak cycle induced negative solar forcing on Lake Chad. The first weak solar cycle forced Lake Victoria to rise abruptly in 1878. The maximum turning point of the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle induced negative forcing on both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea causing their shrinkage to an alarming reduced area ever since. On the other hand, few years delayed positive forcing caused Lake Chad and the Equatorial African lakes to rise abruptly by several meters. Since the present solar cycle number 23 is the first weak cycle of a series, and since it caused 1.6 m sharp rise in Lake Victoria in 1997, then there is a high probability that the Dead Sea will rise by the beginning of the second weak cycle in few years time. And since both the Aral Sea and the Dead Sea are very much in coherence since the late 1950s, then it is rather likely that the Aral Sea will rise with God's wish in the near future. However it is also demanded that Israel should allow more water of the Jordan River to feed the Dead Sea before its real death. Plans for joining the Dead sea to the Red and or to the Mediterranean Seas should be cancelled owing the damaging harm it will cause the Dead Sea as a perfect indicator of solar induced climate change on one hand. On the other hand, the Dead Sea time series always show abrupt changes that can be as high as 70 m; if we add to this a planned artificial rise of the Dead Sea to its level of the thirties, then a damaging flooding effect will ruin the establishments and environment greatly.

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over year of solar maximum during cycle 23: 2. Characterisation on the Sun-Earth path - Geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Bocchialini, K.; Menvielle, M.; Fontaine, D.; Grison, B.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Regnier, S.; Zouganelis, Y.; Chambodut, A.

2017-12-01

Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, magnetic field polarity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach ; for instance all the 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs.

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

High solar activity predictions through an artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orozco-Del-Castillo, M. G.; Ortiz-Alemán, J. C.; Couder-Castañeda, C.; Hernández-Gómez, J. J.; Solís-Santomé, A.

The effects of high-energy particles coming from the Sun on human health as well as in the integrity of outer space electronics make the prediction of periods of high solar activity (HSA) a task of significant importance. Since periodicities in solar indexes have been identified, long-term predictions can be achieved. In this paper, we present a method based on an artificial neural network to find a pattern in some harmonics which represent such periodicities. We used data from 1973 to 2010 to train the neural network, and different historical data for its validation. We also used the neural network along with a statistical analysis of its performance with known data to predict periods of HSA with different confidence intervals according to the three-sigma rule associated with solar cycles 24-26, which we found to occur before 2040.

Statistical aspects of the 1980 solar flares. 2: Solar cycle activity relationships and additional remarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.

1982-01-01

Based on 1349 hydrogen alpha flares with X-ray counterparts, an investigation into the relationship between the rise time, decay time, duration, latitude, hydrogen alpha importance, and X-ray class with 2800 MHz radio emission (F2800) was accomplished. An important finding is that during 1980 both the number of hydrogen alpha importance class 1 and number of X-ray class M (and M+X) flares appeared to be rather strongly related to F2800, in a positive sense; i.e., number of class 1 and class M events increased as F2800 increased.

Influence of Solar and Lunar Tides on the Mesopause Region as Observed in Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalin, P.; Kirkwood, S.; Pertsev, N.; Perminov, V.

2017-10-01

Long-term observations of polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) from 2002 to 2012 are investigated with the aim to statistically study the effects of solar thermal migrating and lunar gravitational tides on aerosol layers and their environment at altitudes 80-90 km. The solar and lunar tidal periodicities are clearly present in PMSE data. For the first time, both amplitudes and phases of solar and lunar tides are estimated using PMSE data from the ESRAD radar located at Esrange (Sweden). The diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal solar migrating tides show pronounced periodicities in the PMSE strength and wind velocity components. Lunar tides demonstrate clear oscillations in the PMSE strength and wind velocities as well. "canonical" lunar gravitational tides, corresponding to the lunar gravitational potential, produce rather large amplitudes and are comparable to the solar thermal tides, whereas "noncanonical" lunar oscillations have minor effects on PMSE layers, but are still statistically significant. The influence of diurnal/semidiurnal tides and monthly/semimonthly tidal components is studied separately. Our estimations of solar thermal and lunar tidal amplitudes are in good agreement with those of previous model and experimental studies. A new mechanism of quadratic demodulation of the solar semidiurnal and lunar semidiurnal tides is shown to be valid at the summer mesopause and can explain periodical PMSE oscillations due to the lunar synodic semimonthly tide with period of 14.77 days. Two harmonics with periods of 27.0 and 13.5 days supposedly representing the solar rotation cycle are also clearly present in PMSE data.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS: OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.-L.; Zhang, H.

We statistically analyze the elemental galactic cosmic ray (GCR) composition measurements of elements 5 ≤ Z ≤ 28 within the energy range 30–500 MeV/nucleon from the CRIS instrument on board the ACE spacecraft in orbit about the L1 Lagrange point during the period from 1997 to 2014. Similarly to the last unusual solar minimum, the elevated elemental intensities of all heavy nuclei during the current weak solar maximum in 2014 are ∼40% higher than that of the previous solar maximum in 2002, which has been attributed to the weak modulation associated with low solar activity levels during the ongoing weakestmore » solar maximum since the dawn of space age. In addition, the abundance ratios of heavy nuclei with respect to elemental oxygen are generally independent of kinetic energy per nucleon in the energy region 60–200 MeV/nuc, in good agreement with previous experiments. Furthermore, the abundance ratios of most relatively abundant species, except carbon, exhibit considerable solar-cycle variation, which are obviously positively correlated with the sunspot numbers with about one-year time lag. We also find that the percentage variation of abundance ratios for most elements are approximately identical. These preliminary results provide valuable insights into the characteristics of elemental heavy nuclei composition and place new and significant constraints on future GCR heavy nuclei propagation and modulation models.« less

The magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundary in sunspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurčák, J.; Rezaei, R.; González, N. Bello; Schlichenmaier, R.; Vomlel, J.

2018-03-01

Context. Sunspots are the longest-known manifestation of solar activity, and their magnetic nature has been known for more than a century. Despite this, the boundary between umbrae and penumbrae, the two fundamental sunspot regions, has hitherto been solely defined by an intensity threshold. Aim. Here, we aim at studying the magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundaries in sunspots of different sizes, morphologies, evolutionary stages, and phases of the solar cycle. Methods: We used a sample of 88 scans of the Hinode/SOT spectropolarimeter to infer the magnetic field properties in at the umbral boundaries. We defined these umbra-penumbra boundaries by an intensity threshold and performed a statistical analysis of the magnetic field properties on these boundaries. Results: We statistically prove that the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots is characterised by an invariant value of the vertical magnetic field component: the vertical component of the magnetic field strength does not depend on the umbra size, its morphology, and phase of the solar cycle. With the statistical Bayesian inference, we find that the strength of the vertical magnetic field component is, with a likelihood of 99%, in the range of 1849-1885 G with the most probable value of 1867 G. In contrast, the magnetic field strength and inclination averaged along individual boundaries are found to be dependent on the umbral size: the larger the umbra, the stronger and more horizontal the magnetic field at its boundary. Conclusions: The umbra and penumbra of sunspots are separated by a boundary that has hitherto been defined by an intensity threshold. We now unveil the empirical law of the magnetic nature of the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots: it is an invariant vertical component of the magnetic field.

Evolution of Our Understanding of the Solar Dynamo During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle 24 has been an exciting cycle for our understanding of the solar dynamo: 1. It was the first cycle for which dynamo based predictions were ever used teaching us valuable lessons. 2. It has given us the opportunity to observe a deep minimum and a weak cycle with a high level of of observational detail . 3. It is full of breaktrhoughs in anelastic MHD dynamo simulations (regular cycles, buoyant flux-tubes, mounder-like events). 4. It has seen the creation of bridges between the kinematic flux-transport and anelastic MHD approaches. 5. It has ushered a new generation of realistic surface flux-transport simulations 6. We have achieved significant observational progress in our understanding of solar cycle propagation. The objective of this talk is to highlight some of the most important results, giving special emphasis on what they have taught us about solar cycle predictability.

Annual Properties of Transverse Waves in the Corona over most of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weberg, M. J.; Morton, R. J.; McLaughlin, J. A.

2017-12-01

Waves are an omnipresent feature in heliophysical plasmas. In particular, transverse (or "Alfvénic") waves have been observed at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales within the corona and solar wind. These waves play a key role in transporting energy through the solar atmosphere and are also thought to contribute to the heating and acceleration of the solar wind. Previous studies of low-frequency (< 10 mHz) transverse waves in coronal loops and polar plumes have provided tantalizing glimpses at specific time periods, however few, if any, systematic studies have been performed spanning long time scales. In this study, we combine recent advancements in the automated detection and measurement of low-frequency transverse waves with over 7 years of SDO / AIA data to provide a detailed picture of coronal transverse waves in polar plumes and, for the first time, begin to examine their long-term behaviour. We measure waves at three different heights in each of eight, four-hour periods spanning May 2010 - May 2017. We find that the bulk wave parameters within these 24 regions are largely consistent over most of a solar cycle. However, there is some evidence for smaller-scale variations both with height and over time periods of a few years. We also discuss total energy flux estimations based on the full wave power spectra, which yields a more nuanced picture than previous values based on summary statistics. Overall, this work expands our view of wave processes in the corona and is relevant to both theoretical and modelling considerations of energy transport within the solar atmosphere. Crucially, these initial results suggest that the energy flux provided by the low-frequency transverse waves varies little over the solar cycle, potentially indicating that the waves provide a consistent source of energy to the corona and beyond.

Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Kyle R.; Mann, Ian R.; Rae, I. Jonathan; Sibeck, David G.; Watt, Clare E. J.

2016-01-01

Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

Changes of circulatory and nervous diseases mortality patterns during periods of exceptional solar events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podolska, Katerina

2017-04-01

The paper contains a statistical analysis of exceptional solar events and daily numbers of deaths from diseases from ICD-10 group VI. Diseases of the nervous system, group IX. Diseases of the circulatory system, and overall daily numbers of deaths in the Czech Republic. It is demonstrated that neurological diseases exhibit greater instability during the period of rising and falling solar activity. Specifically, we study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+ during the Solar Cycles No. 23 and No. 24. We focus mainly on exceptional solar events such as a "Bastille Day event" on July 14, 2000 (class X5), "Halloween solar storm" on October 28, 2003 (class X17), and events on January 7, 1997, April 2, 2000 (class X20), or September 7, 2005 (class X15). Special attention is given to "St. Patrick's Day storm" on March 17, 2015, the strongest geomagnetic storm of the Solar Cycle No. 24 that occurred following a coronal mass ejection (CME). We investigate changes in daily numbers of deaths during 1 month before and 1 month after these exceptional solar events. We take specific storm dynamics of geophysical parameters into consideration, and we also apply the results of risky characteristics of expositions by ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters. It is verified that, for diseases of the nervous system, women are generally more sensitive than men. On the contrary, this differences between men and women are not found for diseases of the circulatory system. Our findings suggest that the impact of hazardous space weather conditions on human health depends on the specific course and strength of individual solar storm.

Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over one year of solar maximum during cycle 23: propagation and effects from the Sun to the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornilleau-Wehrlin, Nicole; Bocchialini, Karine; Menvielle, Michel; Chambodut, Aude; Fontaine, Dominique; Grison, Benjamin; Marchaudon, Aurélie; Pick, Monique; Pitout, Frédéric; Schmieder, Brigitte; Régnier, Stéphane; Zouganelis, Yannis

2017-04-01

Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, helicity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The observed Sun-to-Earth travel times are compared to those estimated using existing simple models of propagation in the interplanetary medium. This comparison is used to statistically assess performances of various models. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach (for instance the all 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs).

Sunspot Time Series: Passive and Active Intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zięba, S.; Nieckarz, Z.

2014-07-01

Solar activity slowly and irregularly decreases from the first spotless day (FSD) in the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and systematically, but also in an irregular way, increases to the new cycle maximum after the last spotless day (LSD). The time interval between the first and the last spotless day can be called the passive interval (PI), while the time interval from the last spotless day to the first one after the new cycle maximum is the related active interval (AI). Minima of solar cycles are inside PIs, while maxima are inside AIs. In this article, we study the properties of passive and active intervals to determine the relation between them. We have found that some properties of PIs, and related AIs, differ significantly between two group of solar cycles; this has allowed us to classify Cycles 8 - 15 as passive cycles, and Cycles 17 - 23 as active ones. We conclude that the solar activity in the PI declining phase (a descending phase of the previous cycle) determines the strength of the approaching maximum in the case of active cycles, while the activity of the PI rising phase (a phase of the ongoing cycle early growth) determines the strength of passive cycles. This can have implications for solar dynamo models. Our approach indicates the important role of solar activity during the declining and the rising phases of the solar-cycle minimum.

Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

2016-04-01

On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak.

ESTIMATE OF SOLAR MAXIMUM USING THE 1-8 Å GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES X-RAY MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, L. M.; Balasubramaniam, K. S., E-mail: lwinter@aer.com

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 Å band from 1986 to the present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and the date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averagedmore » maximum in solar cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in spring 2013.« less

Extreme Value Theory and the New Sunspot Number Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acero, F. J.; Carrasco, V. M. S.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-04-01

Extreme value theory was employed to study solar activity using the new sunspot number index. The block maxima approach was used at yearly (1700-2015), monthly (1749-2016), and daily (1818-2016) scales, selecting the maximum sunspot number value for each solar cycle, and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) technique was used after a declustering process only for the daily data. Both techniques led to negative values for the shape parameters. This implies that the extreme sunspot number value distribution has an upper bound. The return level (RL) values obtained from the POT approach were greater than when using the block maxima technique. Regarding the POT approach, the 110 year (550 and 1100 year) RLs were lower (higher) than the daily maximum observed sunspot number value of 528. Furthermore, according to the block maxima approach, the 10-cycle RL lay within the block maxima daily sunspot number range, as expected, but it was striking that the 50- and 100-cycle RLs were also within that range. Thus, it would seem that the RL is reaching a plateau, and, although one must be cautious, it would be difficult to attain sunspot number values greater than 550. The extreme value trends from the four series (yearly, monthly, and daily maxima per solar cycle, and POT after declustering the daily data) were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method. Only the negative trend of the daily data with the POT technique was statistically significant.

Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2009-01-01

The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies

PubMed Central

Kern, A.K.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W.E.; Mandic, O.; Soliman, A.

2012-01-01

The Late Miocene paleogeography of central Europe and its climatic history are well studied with a resolution of c. 106 years. Small-scale climatic variations are yet unresolved. Observing past climatic change of short periods, however, would encourage the understanding of the modern climatic system. Therefore, past climate archives require a resolution on a decadal to millennial scale. To detect such a short-term evolution, a continuous 6-m-core of the Paleo-Lake Pannon was analyzed in 1-cm-sample distance to provide information as precise and regular as possible. Measurements of the natural gamma radiation and magnetic susceptibility combined with the total abundance of ostracod shells were used as proxies to estimate millennial- to centennial scale environmental changes during the mid-Tortonian warm period. Patterns emerged, but no indisputable age model can be provided for the core, due to the lack of paleomagnetic reversals and the lack of minerals suitable for absolute dating. Therefore, herein we propose another method to determine a hypothetic time frame for these deposits. Based on statistical processes, including Lomb–Scargle and REDFIT periodograms along with Wavelet spectra, several distinct cyclicities could be detected. Calculations considering established off-shore sedimentation rates of the Tortonian Vienna Basin revealed patterns resembling Holocene solar-cycle-records well. The comparison of filtered data of Miocene and Holocene records displays highly similar patterns and comparable modulations. A best-fit adjustment of sedimentation rate results in signals which fit to the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle, the de Vries cycle, the unnamed 500-year- and 1000-year-cycles, as well as the Hallstatt cycle. Each of these cycles has a distinct and unique expression in the investigated environmental proxies, reflecting a complex forcing-system. Hence, a single-proxy-analysis, as often performed on Holocene records, should be considered cautiously as it might fail to capture the full range of solar cycles. PMID:23564975

A Statistical Study of CME Properties and of the Correlation Between Flares and CMEs over Solar Cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Compagnino, A.; Romano, P.; Zuccarello, F.

2017-01-01

We investigated some properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), such as speed, acceleration, polar angle, angular width, and mass, using data acquired by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 31 July 1997 to 31 March 2014, i.e. during the Solar Cycles 23 and 24. We used two CME catalogs: one provided by the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops (CDAW) Data Center and one obtained by the Computer Aided CME Tracking software (CACTus) detection algorithm. For each dataset, we found that the number of CMEs observed during the peak of Cycle 24 was higher than or comparable to the number during Cycle 23, although the photospheric activity during Cycle 24 was weaker than during Cycle 23. Using the CMEs detected by CACTus, we noted that the number of events [N] is of the same order of magnitude during the peaks of the two cycles, but the peak of the CME distribution during Cycle 24 is more extended in time (N > 1500 during 2012 and 2013). We ascribe the discrepancy between the CDAW and CACTus results to the observer bias for CME definition in the CDAW catalog. We also used a dataset containing 19,811 flares of C-, M-, and X-class observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) during the same period. Using both datasets, we studied the relationship between the mass ejected by the CMEs and the flux emitted during the corresponding flares: we found 11,441 flares that were temporally correlated with CMEs for CDAW and 9120 for CACTus. Moreover, we found a log-linear relationship between the flux of the flares integrated from the start to end in the 0.1 - 0.8 nm range and the CME mass. We also found some differences in the mean CMEs velocity and acceleration between the events associated with flares and those that were not.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

How active was solar cycle 22?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Pesnell, W. D.; Woods, T. N.; Rottman, G. J.

1993-01-01

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Limitation of Ground-based Estimates of Solar Irradiance Due to Atmospheric Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Holben, Brent N.

2003-01-01

The uncertainty in ground-based estimates of solar irradiance is quantitatively related to the temporal variability of the atmosphere's optical thickness. The upper and lower bounds of the accuracy of estimates using the Langley Plot technique are proportional to the standard deviation of aerosol optical thickness (approx. +/- 13 sigma(delta tau)). The estimates of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) in two Cimel sun photometer channels from the Mauna Loa site of AERONET are compared with satellite observations from SOLSTICE (Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) on UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) for almost two years of data. The true solar variations related to the 27-day solar rotation cycle observed from SOLSTICE are about 0.15% at the two sun photometer channels. The variability in ground-based estimates is statistically one order of magnitude larger. Even though about 30% of these estimates from all Level 2.0 Cimel data fall within the 0.4 to approx. 0.5% variation level, ground-based estimates are not able to capture the 27-day solar variation observed from SOLSTICE.

TESTING AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING WITH 13 YEARS OF MICHELSON DOPPLER IMAGER MAGNETOGRAMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, J. P.; Hoeksema, J. T., E-mail: JMason86@sun.stanford.ed, E-mail: JTHoeksema@sun.stanford.ed

Flare occurrence is statistically associated with changes in several characteristics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs). We calculated magnetic measures throughout the disk passage of 1075 ARs spanning solar cycle 23 to find a statistical relationship between the solar magnetic field and flares. This expansive study of over 71,000 magnetograms and 6000 flares uses superposed epoch (SPE) analysis to investigate changes in several magnetic measures surrounding flares and ARs completely lacking associated flares. The results were used to seek any flare associated signatures with the capability to recover weak systematic signals with SPE analysis. SPE analysismore » is a method of combining large sets of data series in a manner that yields concise information. This is achieved by aligning the temporal location of a specified flare in each time series, then calculating the statistical moments of the 'overlapping' data. The best-calculated parameter, the gradient-weighted inversion-line length (GWILL), combines the primary polarity inversion line (PIL) length and the gradient across it. Therefore, GWILL is sensitive to complex field structures via the length of the PIL and shearing via the gradient. GWILL shows an average 35% increase during the 40 hr prior to X-class flares, a 16% increase before M-class flares, and 17% increase prior to B-C-class flares. ARs not associated with flares tend to decrease in GWILL during their disk passage. Gilbert and Heidke skill scores are also calculated and show that even GWILL is not a reliable parameter for predicting solar flares in real time.« less

Near-Earth Solar Wind Flows and Related Geomagnetic Activity During more than Four Solar Cycles (1963-2011)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Ian G.; Cane, Hilary V.

2012-01-01

In past studies, we classified the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types based on inspection of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters in the OMNI database and additional data (e.g., geomagnetic indices, energetic particle, and cosmic ray observations). These flow types are: (1) High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun, (2) Slow, interstream solar wind, and (3) Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections at the Sun, including interplanetary coronal mass ejections and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions. The solar wind classification in these previous studies commenced with observations in 1972. In the present study, as well as updating this classification to the end of 2011, we have extended the classification back to 1963, the beginning of near-Earth solar wind observations, thereby encompassing the complete solar cycles 20 to 23 and the ascending phase of cycle 24. We discuss the cycle-to-cycle variations in near-Earth solar wind structures and l1e related geomagnetic activity over more than four solar cycles, updating some of the results of our earlier studies.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami

2013-04-01

Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1610.

Modelling total solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami

2014-05-01

Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1700.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. Y.; Hu, S.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2009-12-01

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth’s magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA’s short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 -23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (ΦE) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding ΦE (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Φ100, than at lower energies such as Φ30 or Φ60, because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim; Shaowen, Hu; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2009-01-01

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

On the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight. 2: 1983-1992 and comparisons with magnetograms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, Drake; Plymate, Claude

1994-01-01

We report additional results in our program to monitor the wavelength stability of lines in the 2.3 micrometer spectrum of integrated sunlight. We use the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) of the National Solar Observatory to monitor 16 delta V = 2 lines of (12)C(16)O, as well as five atomic lines. Wavenumber calibration is achieved using a low-pressure N2O absorption cell and checked against terrestrial atmospheric lines. Imperfect optical integration of the solar disk remains the principal source of error, but this error has been reduced by improved FTS/telescope collimation and observing procedures. The present results include data from an additional 13 quarterly observing runs since 1985. We continue to find that the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight is variable, in the sense of having a greater reshift at solar maximum. This is supported by the temporal dependence of the integrated light velocity, and by the presence of a correlation between velocity and the disk-averaged magnetic flux derived from Kitt Peak magnetograms. The indicated peak-to-peak apparent velocity amplitude over a solar cycle is approximately the same as the velocity amplitude of the Sun's motion about the solar system barycenter. This represents about half the amplitude which we inferred in Paper I (Deming et al. 1987), but the present result has a much greater statistical significance. Our results have implications for those investigations which search for the Doppler signatures of planetary-mass companions to solar-type stars. We contrast our results to the recent finding by McMillan et al. 1993 that solar absorption lines in the violet spectral region are wavelength-stable over the solar cycle.

On the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight. 2: 1983-1992 and comparisons with magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deming, Drake; Plymate, Claude

1994-05-01

We report additional results in our program to monitor the wavelength stability of lines in the 2.3 micrometer spectrum of integrated sunlight. We use the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) of the National Solar Observatory to monitor 16 delta V = 2 lines of (12)C(16)O, as well as five atomic lines. Wavenumber calibration is achieved using a low-pressure N2O absorption cell and checked against terrestrial atmospheric lines. Imperfect optical integration of the solar disk remains the principal source of error, but this error has been reduced by improved FTS/telescope collimation and observing procedures. The present results include data from an additional 13 quarterly observing runs since 1985. We continue to find that the apparent velocity of integrated sunlight is variable, in the sense of having a greater reshift at solar maximum. This is supported by the temporal dependence of the integrated light velocity, and by the presence of a correlation between velocity and the disk-averaged magnetic flux derived from Kitt Peak magnetograms. The indicated peak-to-peak apparent velocity amplitude over a solar cycle is approximately the same as the velocity amplitude of the Sun's motion about the solar system barycenter. This represents about half the amplitude which we inferred in Paper I (Deming et al. 1987), but the present result has a much greater statistical significance. Our results have implications for those investigations which search for the Doppler signatures of planetary-mass companions to solar-type stars. We contrast our results to the recent finding by McMillan et al. 1993 that solar absorption lines in the violet spectral region are wavelength-stable over the solar cycle.

Experimental investigation of possible geomagnetic feedback from energetic (0.1 to 16 keV) terrestrial O(+) ions in the magnetotail current sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lennartsson, O. W.; Klumpar, D. M.; Shelley, E. G.; Quinn, J. M.

1993-01-01

Data from energetic ion mass spectrometers on the International Sun Earth Explorer 1 (ISEE 1) and AMPTE/CCE spacecraft are combined with geomagnetic and solar indices to investigate, in a statistical fashion, whether energized O(+) ions of terrestrial origin constitute a source of feedback which triggers or amplifies geomagnetic magnetotail current sheet. The ISSE 1 data (0.1-16 keV/e) provide in situ observations of the O(+) solar cycle 21, as well as inner magnetosphere data from same period. The CCE data (0.1-17 keV/e), taken during the subsequent solar minimum, all within 9 R(sub E), provide a reference for long-term variations in the magnetosphere O(+) content. Statistical correlations between the ion data and the indices, and between different indices, all point in the same direction: there is probably no feedback specific to the O(+) ions, in spite of the fact that they often contribute most of the ion mass density in the tail current sheet.

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk

2014-11-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in differentmore » layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.« less

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

A survey of TiOλ567 nm absorption in solar-type stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizi, Fatemeh; Mirtorabi, Mohammad Taghi

2018-04-01

Molecular absorption bands are estimators of stellar activity and spot cycles on magnetically active stars. We have previously introduced a new colour index that compares absorption strength of the titanium oxide (TiO) at 567 nm with nearby continuum. In this paper, we implement this index to measure long-term activity variations and the statistical properties of the index in a sample of 302 solar-type stars from the High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet search Spectrograph planet search programme. The results indicate a pattern of change in star's activity, covers a range of periods from 2 yr up to 17 yr.

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2014-09-01

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978-2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50-55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35-40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula

2008-01-01

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Solar Wind Turbulence and Intermittency at 0.72 AU - Statistical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodorescu, E.; Echim, M.; Munteanu, C.; Zhang, T.; Barabash, S. V.; Budnik, E.; Fedorov, A.

2014-12-01

Through this analysis we characterize the turbulent magnetic fluctuations by Venus Express Magnetometer, VEX-MAG in the solar wind during the last solar cycle minimum at a distance of 0.72 AU from the Sun. We analyze data recorded between 2007 and 2009 with time resolutions of 1 Hz and 32 Hz. In correlation with plasma data from the ASPERA instrument, Analyser of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms, we identify 550 time intervals, at 1 Hz resolution, when VEX is in the solar wind and which satisfy selection criteria defined based on the amount and the continuity of the data. We identify 118 time intervals that correspond to fast solar wind. We compute the power spectral densities (PSD) for Bx, By, Bz, B, B2, B|| and B^. We perform a statistical analysis of the spectral indices computed for each of the PSD's and evidence a dependence of the spectral index on the solar wind velocity and a slight difference in power content between parallel and perpendicular components of the magnetic field. We also estimate the scale invariance of fluctuations by computing the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for Bx, By, Bz, B and B2 time series and discuss the implications for intermittent turbulence. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM, and a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florios, Kostas; Kontogiannis, Ioannis; Park, Sung-Hong; Guerra, Jordan A.; Benvenuto, Federico; Bloomfield, D. Shaun; Georgoulis, Manolis K.

2018-02-01

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-realtime (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012 - 2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several machine learning (ML) and conventional statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude {>} M1 and {>} C1 within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second-best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best-performing method gives accuracy ACC=0.93(0.00), true skill statistic TSS=0.74(0.02), and Heidke skill score HSS=0.49(0.01) for {>} M1 flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and ACC=0.84(0.00), TSS=0.60(0.01), and HSS=0.59(0.01) for {>} C1 flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.

Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark

2017-09-01

We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo model that is sustained by the emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy’s law. Randomness and nonlinearity in the BMR emergence of our model produce variable magnetic cycles. However, when we allow for a random scatter in the tilt angle to mimic the observed departures from Joy’s law, we find more variability in the magnetic cycles. We find that the observed standard deviation in Joy’s law of {σ }δ =15^\\circ produces a variability comparable to the observed solar cycle variability of ˜32%, as quantified by the sunspot number maxima between 1755 and 2008. We also find that tilt angle scatter can promote grand minima and grand maxima. The time spent in grand minima for {σ }δ =15^\\circ is somewhat less than that inferred for the Sun from cosmogenic isotopes (about 9% compared to 17%). However, when we double the tilt scatter to {σ }δ =30^\\circ , the simulation statistics are comparable to the Sun (˜18% of the time in grand minima and ˜10% in grand maxima). Though the BL mechanism is the only source of poloidal field, we find that our simulations always maintain magnetic cycles even at large fluctuations in the tilt angle. We also demonstrate that tilt quenching is a viable and efficient mechanism for dynamo saturation; a suppression of the tilt by only 1°-2° is sufficient to limit the dynamo growth. Thus, any potential observational signatures of tilt quenching in the Sun may be subtle.

Transient galactic cosmic ray modulation during solar cycle 24: A comparative study of two prominent Forbush decrease events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingling, Zhao; Huai, Zhang; Hongqing, He

2016-04-01

Forbush decrease (FD) events are of great interest for transient galactic cosmic ray modulation study. In this study, we perform statistical analysis of two prominent Forbush events during cycle 24, occurred on 8 March 2012 (Event 1) and 22 June 2015 (Event 2), respectively, utilizing the measurements from the worldwide neutron monitor (NM) network. Despite of their comparable magnitudes, the two Forbush events are distinctly different in terms of evolving GCR energy spectrum and energy dependence of the recovery time. The recovery time of Event 1 is strongly dependent on the median energy, compared to the nearly constant recovery time of Event 2 over the studied energy range. Additionally, while the evolution of the energy spectra during the two FD event exhibit similar variation pattern, the spectrum of Event 2 is very harder, especially at the time of deepest depression. These difference are essentially related to their associated solar wind disturbances. Event 1 is associated with a complicated shock-associated ICME structure of IP/Sheath/MC sequence with large radial extend and limited longitudinal extent (narrow and thick), probably merged from multiple shocks and transient flows. Conversely, Event 2 is accompanied by a relatively simple interplanetary disturbance of IP/Sheath/Ejecta sequence with small radial extend and wide longitudinal departure (wide and thin), possibly evolved from an over expanded CME. Such comparative study may help to clarify the occurrence mechanisms of Forbush events related to different types solar wind structures and provide valuable insight into the transient GCR modulation, especially during the unusual solar cycle 24.

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, Kevin F.; Cyr, Chris St

2012-01-01

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Petrus C.; Nandy, D.; Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2009-05-01

The current minimum of cycle 23 is unusual in its long duration, the very low level to which Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has fallen, and the small flux of the open polar fields. The deep minimum of TSI seems to be related to an unprecedented dearth of polar faculae, and hence to the small amount of open flux. Based upon surface flux transport models it has been suggested that the causes of these phenomena may be an unusually vigorous meridional flow, or even a deviation from Joy's law resulting in smaller Joy angles than usual for emerging flux in cycle 23. There is also the possibility of a connection with the recently inferred emergence in polar regions of bipoles that systematically defy Hale's law. Much speculation has been going on as to the consequences of this exceptional minimum: are we entering another global minimum, is this the end of the 80 year period of exceptionally high solar activity, or is this just a statistical hiccup? Dynamo simulations are underway that may help answer this question. As an aside it must be mentioned that the current minimum of TSI puts an upper limit in the TSI input for global climate simulations during the Maunder minimum, and that a possible decrease in future solar activity will result in a very small but not insignificant reduction in the pace of global warming.

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

On the Slow time Geomagnetic field Modulation of Cosmic Rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okpala, K. C.; Egbunu, F.

2016-12-01

Cosmic rays of galactic origin are modulated by both heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions. The mutual (and mutually exclusive) contribution of both heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) modulation is still an open question. While the rapid-time association of the galactic cosmic ray variation with different heliophysical and geophysical phenomena has been well studied, not so much attention has been paid to slow-time variations especially with regards to local effects. In this work, we employed monthly means of cosmic ray count rates from two mid latitude (Hermanus and Rome), and two higher latitude (Inuvik and Oulu) neutron monitors (NM), and compared their variability with geomagnetic stations that are in close proximity to the NMs. The data spans 1966 to 2008 and covers four (4) solar cycles. The difference (CRdiff)between the mean count rate of all days and the mean of the five quietest days for each month was compared with the Dst-related disturbance (Hdiff) derived from the nearby geomagnetic stations. Zeroth- and First- correlation between the cosmic ray parameters and geomagnetic parameters was performed to ascertain statistical association and test for spurious association. Our results show that solar activity is generally strongly correlated (>0.75) with mean strength of GCR count rate and geomagnetic field during individual solar cycles. The correlation between mean strength of cosmic ray intensity and Geomagnetic field strength is spurious and is basically moderated by the solar activity. The signature of convection driven disturbances at high latitude geomagnetic stations was evident during the declining phase of the solar cycles close to the solar minimums. The absence of this feature in the slow-time varying cosmic ray count rates in all stations, and in the mid latitude geomagnetic stations suggest that the local geomagnetic disturbance do not play a significant role in modulating the cosmic ray flux.

Non-photic solar associations of heart rate variability and myocardial infarction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Breus, Tamara; Syutkina, Elena V.; Baevsky, Roman; Weydahl, Andi; Watanabe, Yoshihiko; Otsuka, Kuniaki; Siegelova, Jarmila; Fiser, Bohumil; Bakken, Earl E.

2002-03-01

Alignment of serial epidemiological, physiological, including electrocardiographic data with variations in galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, and atmospheric pressure suggests the possibility of links among these physical environmental variations and health risks, such as myocardial infarctions and ischemic strokes, among others. An increase in the incidence of myocardial infarction in association with magnetic storms, reported by several investigators from Russia, Israel, Italy and Mexico, accounts in Minnesota for a 5% (220cases/year) increase in mortality during years of maximal solar activity by comparison with years of minimal solar activity. Magnetic storms are also found to decrease heart rate variability (HRV), indicating a possible mechanism since a reduced HRV is a prognostic factor for coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction. Longitudinal electrocardiographic monitoring for a week or much longer spans in different geographic locations, notably in the auroral oval, further suggests that the decrease in HRV affects spectral regions other than that around 3.6s (0.15-0.40Hz), reportedly associated with the parasympathetic nervous system. Differences in some associations are observed from solar cycle to solar cycle, and as a function of solar cycle stage, a finding resolving controversies. Coordinated physiological and physical monitoring, the scope of an international project on the Biosphere and the Cosmos, seeks reference values for a better understanding of environmental effects on human health and for testing the merit of space weather reports that could prompt countermeasures in space and on earth. Physiological data being collected systematically worldwide and morbidity/mortality statistics from causes such as myocardial infarction and stroke constitute invaluable data bases for assessing changes within the physiological range, for detecting environmental effects and for recognizing endogenous as well as exogenous disease-risk syndromes. Timely and timed intervention may then be instituted to lower risk, in preference to exclusive current focus on treating overt disease. These chronodiagnostics are particularly important for those venturing into regions away from hospitals, such as astronauts in space.

Design Investigation of Solar Powered Lasers for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-05-01

Brayton Cycle Power Units 64 3.4 Heat Exchanger 75 3.5 Waste Heat Radiator 79 3.6 Solar Powered Gas Dynamic Laser 82 3.7 Solar Powered Electric... Brayton Cycle Space Power Units 65 10 Supersonic C02 GDL (1 MW) 85 11 Specific Weights for Comparative Evaluation of Solar Lasers 88 12 Subsonic C02...for the Brayton Cycle Power Units 61 21 Solar Radiation Boiler-Receiver Solar Radiation from the Collectors in Focussed (at left) on the

The "Approximate 150 Day Quasi-Periodicity" in Interplanetary and Solar Phenomena During Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.

2004-01-01

A"quasi-periodicity" of approx. 150 days in various solar and interplanetary phenomena has been reported in earlier solar cycles. We suggest that variations in the occurrence of solar energetic particle events, inter-planetary coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storm sudden commenceents during solar cycle 23 show evidence of this quasi-periodicity, which is also present in the sunspot number, in particular in the northern solar hemisphere. It is not, however, prominent in the interplanetary magnetic field strength.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956. [sunspot activity correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reedy, R. C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of Co-56 in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of Na-22 and Fe-55 in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965-1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954-1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20 and are about five times the previous estimate for cycle 19 based on neutron-monitor and radio ionospheric measurements. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity.

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.

2012-12-01

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.

Invited Talks at Naples and Coimbra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, Stuart

2003-01-01

Prior to observations of the solar irradiance from space that began in 1979 there was no hope of obtaining even rough estimates of the solar irradiance variation over a solar cycle, since the space observations made since showed that the magnitude of the variation over a cycle to date is less than 0.1 %, a value too small to measure from the ground. At the same time, it would be useful to know the cycle-dependent variation over more than just the two recent cycles. Lacking a complete theory for the solar dynamo responsible for this variation, the current hope is to determine what proxy might yield the best values. Because there is an excellent database on sunspot umbral and penumbral areas from the Greenwich Observatory for the years 1874-1976 (but not beyond), the possibility exists that these data could be used. This talk will summarize results of a joint study in which satellite measurements of the solar irradiance variation are compared with ground-based measurements from the Coimbra Observatory of sunspot number, umbral area, and total sunspot area to determine which would serve as the best proxy for using the Greenwich observations back to 1874. From the near constancy of sunspot umbral magnetic fields upon which the useful parameter photometric sunspot index is based, we expected that umbral area would yield the beat proxy. To our surprise, after performing a statistical study of the observations over the period 1980-1990, preliminary indications are that sunspot number (a parameter available back into the 18th century) may be just as useful as the umbral area. As expected, both are quite superior as proxies to total sunspot area, which includes the penumbral area. This conclusion is consistent with earlier work of Hop and Schatten, who sought a proxy by studies of the umbral-penumbral area ratio. A second motivation for pursuing this work is the possibility that relatively small variations in the solar irradiance may induce larger responses in Earth's climate than would occur from simply introducing the corresponding heat differential into the terrestrial atmosphere. The talk will conclude with a description of why some climatologists are beginning to explore this possibility, which is suggest by some of the space observations used in the above search for a solar irradiance variation proxy.

Single ICMEs and Complex Transient Structures in the Solar Wind in 2010 - 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodkin, D.; Slemzin, V.; Zhukov, A. N.; Goryaev, F.; Shugay, Y.; Veselovsky, I.

2018-05-01

We analyze the statistics, solar sources, and properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the solar wind. The total number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) registered in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops catalog (CDAW) during the first eight years of Cycle 24 was 61% larger than in the same period of Cycle 23, but the number of X-ray flares registered by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) was 20 % smaller because the solar activity was lower. The total number of ICMEs in the given period of Cycle 24 in the Richardson and Cane list was 29% smaller than in Cycle 23, which may be explained by a noticeable number of non-classified ICME-like events in the beginning of Cycle 24. For the period January 2010 - August 2011, we identify solar sources of the ICMEs that are included in the Richardson and Cane list. The solar sources of ICME were determined from coronagraph observations of the Earth-directed CMEs, supplemented by modeling of their propagation in the heliosphere using kinematic models (a ballistic and drag-based model). A detailed analysis of the ICME solar sources in the period under study showed that in 11 cases out of 23 (48%), the observed ICME could be associated with two or more sources. For multiple-source events, the resulting solar wind disturbances can be described as complex (merged) structures that are caused by stream interactions, with properties depending on the type of the participating streams. As a reliable marker to identify interacting streams and their sources, we used the plasma ion composition because it freezes in the low corona and remains unchanged in the heliosphere. According to the ion composition signatures, we classify these cases into three types: complex ejecta originating from weak and strong CME-CME interactions, as well as merged interaction regions (MIRs) originating from the CME high-speed stream (HSS) interactions. We describe temporal profiles of the ion composition for the single-source and multi-source solar wind structures and compared them with the ICME signatures determined from the kinematic and magnetic field parameters of the solar wind. In single-source events, the ion charge state, as a rule, has a one-peak enhancement with an average duration of about one day, which is similar to the mean ICME duration of 1.12 days derived from the Richardson and Cane list. In the multi-source events, the total profile of the ion charge state consists of a sequence of enhancements that is associated with the interaction between the participating streams. On average, the total duration of the complex structures that appear as a result of the CME-CME and CME-HSS interactions as determined from their ion composition is 2.4 days, which is more than twice longer than that of the single-source events.

Thirty-five-year climatic cycle in heliogeophysics, psychophysiology, military politics, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberg, F.; Cornélissen, G.; Sothern, R. B.; Czaplicki, J.; Schwartzkopff, O.

2010-12-01

Cycles of about 35 years found in the climate by Brückner and Egeson were aligned with periodic changes in the length of the solar cycle by the Lockyers. The solar-cycle length and climate were subsequently revisited without reference to any cyclicity or those who discovered it. The descriptive statistics of Bruckner and Lockyer were repeatedly questioned and, with notable exceptions, have been forgotten. Bruckner's data, taken from his summary chart, are shown here for the first time inferentially statistically validated as nonstationary (to the point of intermittency) and, as transdisciplinary, extending from meteorology to 2556 years of international battles; to 2189 years of tree rings; to ˜900 years of northern lights; to 400 years of economics; to 173 years of military affairs; and to ˜40 years of helio-, interplanetary- and geomagnetics matching a longitudinal record by a healthy individual who self-measured his heart rate and mental functions (with a 1-min time estimation), among other variables. Space weather, mirrored in the circulation of human blood, can be tracked biologically as a dividend from self-assessed preventive health care including the automatically and ambulatory-recorded heart rate and blood pressure for detecting and treating heretofore ignored vascular variability disorders. A website providing free analyses for anyone (in exchange for their data) could serve any community with computer-savvy members and could start focusing the attention of the population at large on problems of societal as well as individual health. Space weather was found to affect the human cardiovascular system, and it has been supposed that data on space weather can be inversely assimilated from biological self-monitoring data.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China

PubMed Central

Duan, Fucai; Wang, Yongjin; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Yi; Cheng, Hai; Wu, Chung-Che; Hu, Hsun-Ming; Kong, Xinggong; Liu, Dianbing; Zhao, Kan

2014-01-01

The association between solar activity and Asian monsoon (AM) remains unclear. Here we evaluate the possible connection between them based on a precisely-dated, high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southwest China during the past 4.2 thousand years (ka). Without being adjusted chronologically to the solar signal, our record shows a distinct peak-to-peak correlation with cosmogenic nuclide 14C, total solar irradiance (TSI), and sunspot number (SN) at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Further cross-wavelet analyses between our calcite δ18O and atmospheric 14C show statistically strong coherence at three typical periodicities of ~80, 200 and 340 years, suggesting important roles of solar activities in modulating AM changes at those timescales. Our result has further indicated a better correlation between our calcite δ18O record and atmospheric 14C than between our record and TSI. This better correlation may imply that the Sun–monsoon connection is dominated most likely by cosmic rays and oceanic circulation (both associated to atmospheric 14C), instead of the direct solar heating (TSI). PMID:24894978

Activity associated with coronal mass ejections at solar minimum - SMM observations from 1984-1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Webb, D. F.

1991-01-01

Seventy-three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the coronagraph aboard SMM between 1984 and 1986 were examined in order to determine the distribution of various forms of solar activity that were spatially and temporally associated with mass ejections during solar minimum phase. For each coronal mass ejection a speed was measured, and the departure time of the transient from the lower corona estimated. Other forms of solar activity that appeared within 45 deg longitude and 30 deg latitude of the mass ejection and within +/-90 min of its extrapolated departure time were explored. The statistical results of the analysis of these 73 CMEs are presented, and it is found that slightly less than half of them were infrequently associated with other forms of solar activity. It is suggested that the distribution of the various forms of activity related to CMEs does not change at different phases of the solar cycle. For those CMEs with associations, it is found that eruptive prominences and soft X-rays were the most likely forms of activity to accompany the appearance of mass ejections.

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Temporal Variation of the Rotation of the Solar Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C.

2017-04-01

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle length for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS OF LARGE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS OVER FOUR SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.

2011-04-10

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 20-23 by using Rome (cycles 20 and 21) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 22 and 23) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification), and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers frommore » their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for solar cycle 22. In general, large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phases 0.45-0.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phases 0.29-0.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum coronal mass ejection speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long-term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun-Earth climate relationship.« less

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

2015-06-01

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Measurements of the Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

The solar irradiance is the primary natural energy input into Earth's atmosphere and climate system. Understanding the long-term variations of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) over time scales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for most Sun-climate research topics. There are satellite measurements of the SSI since the 1970s that contribute to understanding the solar cycle variability over Solar Cycles 21 to 24. A limiting factor for the accuracy of these results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, for which there are fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. A summary of these satellite SSI measurements, which are primarily in the ultraviolet and only recently in the visible and near infrared, will be presented. Examining SSI trends using a new analysis technique is helping to identify some uncorrected instrumental trends, which once applied to the SSI trends has the potential to provide more accurate solar cycle variability results. This new technique examines the SSI trends at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in a SSI record, and one of the most common components of these derived long-term trends is a downward trend that we attribute to being most likely from uncorrected instrument degradation. Examples of this analysis will be presented for some of the satellite SSI measurements to demonstrate this new technique and how it has potential to improve the understanding of solar cycle variability and to clarify the uncertainties of the trends.

Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with SSC over Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: 1. Identification of Related Sun-Earth Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grison, B.; Bocchialini, K.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Regnier, S.; Zouganelis, Y.

2017-12-01

Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of herafter detailed criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, polarity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The categorization of the events at L1 is made on published catalogues. For each potential CME/L1 event association we compare the velocity observed at L1 with the one observed at the Sun and the estimated balistic velocity. Observations of radio emissions (Type II, Type IV detected from the ground and /or by WIND) associated to the CMEs make the solar source more probable. We also compare the polarity of the magnetic clouds with the hemisphere of the solar source. The drag coefficient (estimated with the drag-based model) is calculated for each potential association and it is compared to the expected range values. We identified a solar source for 26 SSC related events. 12 of these 26 associations match all criteria. We finally discuss the difficulty to perform such associations.

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

2009-04-01

The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T.

1990-09-01

From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less

The Structure of Titan's Ionosphere from 10 Years of Cassini Measurements: Solar Cycle and Saturn Local Time Dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edberg, N. J. T.; Kurth, W. S.; Gurnett, D. A.; Andrews, D. J.; Vigren, E.; Shebanits, O.; Agren, K.; Wahlund, J. E.; Opgenoorth, H. J.; Holmberg, M.; Jackman, C. M.; Cravens, T.; Bertucci, C.; Dougherty, M. K.

2014-12-01

We present measurements from the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science/Langmuir probe (RPWS/LP) instrument of the electron density in the ionosphere of Titan from the first ~100 flybys (2004-2014). After more than 10 years of measurements a good number of measurements exists from Titan's ionosphere. This allows for statistical studies of the structure of Titan's ionosphere. The electron density has been shown to vary significantly from one flyby to the next, as well as on longer time scales and here we discern some of the reasons for the observed ionospheric variability. Firstly, following the rise to the recent solar maximum we show how the ionospheric peak density, normalized to a common solar zenith angle, Nnorm clearly varies with the ~11-year solar cycle. Nnorm correlates well with the solar energy flux Fe and we find that Nnorm ∝ Fek, with k = 0.54 ± 0.18, which is close to the theoretical value of 0.5. Secondly, we present results that indicate that the ionospheric density in the topside ionosphere (altitude range 1200-2400 km) are generally significantly increased, roughly by a factor of 2, when Titan is located in the post-midnight sector of Saturn, i.e. at Saturn local times 00 - 03 h, compared to other local time sectors. We suggest that this increase could be caused by additional particle impact ionization from reconnection events in the Saturn tail.

Hard X-Ray Emission from Partially Occulted Solar Flares: RHESSI Observations in Two Solar Cycles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Effenberger, Frederic; Costa, Fatima Rubio da; Petrosian, Vahé

2017-02-01

Flares close to the solar limb, where the footpoints are occulted, can reveal the spectrum and structure of the coronal looptop source in X-rays. We aim at studying the properties of the corresponding energetic electrons near their acceleration site, without footpoint contamination. To this end, a statistical study of partially occulted flares observed with Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager is presented here, covering a large part of solar cycles 23 and 24. We perform detailed spectra, imaging, and light curve analyses for 116 flares and include contextual observations from SDO and STEREO when available, providing further insights into flaremore » emission that were previously not accessible. We find that most spectra are fitted well with a thermal component plus a broken power-law, non-thermal component. A thin-target kappa distribution model gives satisfactory fits after the addition of a thermal component. X-ray imaging reveals small spatial separation between the thermal and non-thermal components, except for a few flares with a richer coronal source structure. A comprehensive light curve analysis shows a very good correlation between the derivative of the soft X-ray flux (from GOES ) and the hard X-rays for a substantial number of flares, indicative of the Neupert effect. The results confirm that non-thermal particles are accelerated in the corona and estimated timescales support the validity of a thin-target scenario with similar magnitudes of thermal and non-thermal energy fluxes.« less

A Feasibility Study of CO2-Based Rankine Cycle Powered by Solar Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin-Rong; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Fujima, Katsumi; Enomoto, Masatoshi; Sawada, Noboru

An experiment study was carried out in order to investigate feasibility of CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. The proposed cycle is to achieve a cogeneration of heat and power, which consists of evacuated solar tube collectors, power generating turbine, heat recovery system, and feed pump. The Rankine cycle of the system utilizes solar collectors to convert CO2 into high-temperature supercritical state, used to drive a turbine and produce electrical power. The cycle also recovers thermal energy, which can be used for absorption refrigerator, air conditioning, hot water supply so on for a building. A set of experimental set-up was constructed to investigate the performance of the CO2-based Rankine cycle. The results show the cycle can achieve production of heat and power with reasonable thermodynamics efficiency and has a great potential of the application of the CO2-based Rankine cycle powered by solar energy. In addition, some research interests related to the present study will also be discussed in this paper.

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy S.

2017-01-01

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Ion Acceleration in Solar Flares Determined by Solar Neutron Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, K.; Solar Neutron Observation Group

2013-05-01

Large amounts of particles can be accelerated to relativistic energy in association with solar flares and/or accompanying phenomena (e.g., CME-driven shocks), and they sometimes reach very near the Earth and penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. These particles are observed by ground-based detectors (e.g., neutron monitors) as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). Some of the GLEs originate from high energy solar neutrons which are produced in association with solar flares. These neutrons are also observed by ground-based neutron monitors and solar neutron telescopes. Recently, some of the solar neutron detectors have also been operating in space. By observing these solar neutrons, we can obtain information about ion acceleration in solar flares. Such neutrons were observed in association with some X-class flares in solar cycle 23, and sometimes they were observed by two different types of detectors. For example, on 2005 September 7, large solar neutron signals were observed by the neutron monitor at Mt. Chacaltaya in Bolivia and Mexico City, and by the solar neutron telescopes at Chacaltaya and Mt. Sierra Negra in Mexico in association with an X17.0 flare. The neutron signal continued for more than 20 minutes with high statistical significance. Intense gamma-ray emission was also registered by INTEGRAL, and by RHESSI during the decay phase. We analyzed these data using the solar-flare magnetic-loop transport and interaction model of Hua et al. (2002), and found that the model could successfully fit the data with intermediate values of loop magnetic convergence and pitch angle scattering parameters. These results indicate that solar neutrons were produced at the same time as the gamma-ray line emission and that ions were continuously accelerated at the emission site. In this paper, we introduce some of the solar neutron observations in solar cycle 23, and discuss the tendencies of the physical parameters of solar neutron GLEs, and the energy spectrum and population of the accelerated particles produced in these solar flares, etc. We also report recent solar neutron observations by the Space Environment Data Acquisition equipment-Attached Payload (SEDA-AP) which has been installed on the international space station, and introduce the plan for the new solar neutron detector of the SciBar for the Cosmic Ray Telescope (SciCRT) at Mt. Sierra Negra in Mexico.

Solar cycle effect in SBUV/SBUV 2 ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr

Effect of the 11-year solar cycle on stratospheric ozone is analyzed using the data of ozone measurements with SBUV/SBUV 2 instruments aboard Nimbus 7, NOAA 9, NOAA 11, NOAA 14, NOAA 16, and NOAA 17-NOAA 19 satellites for 1978-2012 (ftp://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/sbuv/). High-resolution spectral and cross-spectral methods as well as the method of multiple linear regression were used for the analysis. The regression model takes into account the annual variation, the linear trend, the solar cycle effect and the effects on ozone of the products of the Pinatubo volcano eruption and the quasi-biennial oscillations in the equatorial stratospheric wind. The cross-spectral analysis of ozone concentration and 10.7 cm solar radio flux shows that, generally, 11-year ozone variations in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lag behind while ozone variations in the low-latitude lower stratosphere lead the solar cycle. The phase shift between the ozone variations and the solar cycle reaches pi/2 in 35-40 km layer over the tropics and in the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere. Calculations show that taking into account the phase shift is especially important for correct estimation of the ozone response to the solar cycle in the tropical middle stratosphere. Local maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle are noted around a year below the stratopause (45-50 km), in 30-35 km layer in the middle stratosphere, and in the polar lower stratosphere. The sensitivity of the ozone response to the solar cycle for the whole period of 1978-2012 is less than that for the period of 1978-2003 which does not include the 24th solar cycle with anomalously small amplitude. The ozone response is seasonally dependent. Maximal amplitudes of the ozone response are characteristic for polar latitudes during winter-spring periods. For example ozone changes related to the solar cycle can reach 5% in the low and middle latitudes during the 1978-2012 period, while winter-spring ozone changes approach 8-9% in the Arctic lower mesosphere and lower stratosphere and 12% in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. These results point at an important role of atmospheric circulation in the response of the Earth atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

MLSO Mark III K-Coronameter Observations of the CME Rate from 1989-1996

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St Cyr, O. C.; Flint, Q. A.; Xie, H.; Webb, D. F.; Burkepile, J. T.; Lecinski, A. R.; Quirk, C.; Stanger, A. L.

2015-01-01

We report here an attempt to fill the 1990-1995 gap in the CME (coronal mass ejection) rate using the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO)'s Mark III (Mk3) K-coronameter. The Mk3 instrument observed routinely several hours most days beginning in 1980 until it was upgraded to Mk4 in 1999. We describe the statistical properties of the CMEs detected during 1989-1996, and we determine a CME rate for each of those years. Since spaceborne coronagraphs have more complete duty cycles than a ground-based instrument at a single location, we compare the Mk3-derived CME rate from 1989 with the SMM C/P (Solar Maximum Mission Coronagraph/Polarimeter) coronagraph, and from 1996 with the SOHO (Solar and Hellospheric Observatory) LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph) coronagraphs.

Sunspot variation and selected associated phenomena: A look at solar cycle 21 and beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. M.

1982-01-01

Solar sunspot cycles 8 through 21 are reviewed. Mean time intervals are calculated for maximum to maximum, minimum to minimum, minimum to maximum, and maximum to minimum phases for cycles 8 through 20 and 8 through 21. Simple cosine functions with a period of 132 years are compared to, and found to be representative of, the variation of smoothed sunspot numbers at solar maximum and minimum. A comparison of cycles 20 and 21 is given, leading to a projection for activity levels during the Spacelab 2 era (tentatively, November 1984). A prediction is made for cycle 22. Major flares are observed to peak several months subsequent to the solar maximum during cycle 21 and to be at minimum level several months after the solar minimum. Additional remarks are given for flares, gradual rise and fall radio events and 2800 MHz radio emission. Certain solar activity parameters, especially as they relate to the near term Spacelab 2 time frame are estimated.

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Amplification of the solar signal in the summer monsoon rainband in China by synergistic actions of different dynamical responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Wang, Jingsong; Liu, Haiwen; Xiao, Ziniu

2017-02-01

A rainband meridional shift index (RMSI) is defined and used to statistically prove that the East Asian summer monsoon rainband is usually significantly more northward in the early summer of solar maximum years than that of solar minimum years. By applying continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence, it is found that throughout most of the 20th century, the significant decadal oscillations of sunspot number (SSN) and the RMSI are phase-locked and since the 1960s, the SSN has led the RMSI slightly by approximately 1.4 yr. Wind and Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux analysis shows that the decadal meridional oscillation of the June rainband likely results from both a stronger or earlier onset of the tropical monsoon and poleward shift of the subtropical westerly jet in high-solar months of May and June. The dynamical responses of the lower tropical monsoon and the upper subtropical westerly jet to the 11-yr solar cycle transmit bottom-up and top-down solar signals, respectively, and the synergistic actions between the monsoon and the jet likely amplify the solar signal at the northern boundary of the monsoon to some extent.

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi

2015-02-01

The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less

Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, Ching-Cheh

2007-01-01

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode -Energy-momentum analysis-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate is affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in late-winter/spring show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, SAM-related signal tends to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period in the High Solar (HS) years, whereas it is restricted in the troposphere and not persist in the Low Solar (LS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Thomas N.; Eparvier, Francis G.; Harder, Jerald; Snow, Martin

2018-05-01

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth's environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun-Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003 - present) and TIMED (2002 - present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.

Mid-Term Quasi-Periodicities and Solar Cycle Variation of the White-Light Corona from 18.5 Years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of LASCO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlyaeva, T.; Lamy, P.; Llebaria, A.

2015-07-01

We report on the analysis of the temporal evolution of the solar corona based on 18.5 years (1996.0 - 2014.5) of white-light observations with the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. This evolution is quantified by generating spatially integrated values of the K-corona radiance, first globally, then in latitudinal sectors. The analysis considers time series of monthly values and 13-month running means of the radiance as well as several indices and proxies of solar activity. We study correlation, wavelet time-frequency spectra, and cross-coherence and phase spectra between these quantities. Our results give a detailed insight on how the corona responds to solar activity over timescales ranging from mid-term quasi-periodicities (also known as quasi-biennial oscillations or QBOs) to the long-term 11 year solar cycle. The amplitude of the variation between successive solar maxima and minima (modulation factor) very much depends upon the strength of the cycle and upon the heliographic latitude. An asymmetry is observed during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 24, prominently in the royal and polar sectors, with north leading. Most prominent QBOs are a quasi-annual period during the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 23 and a shorter period, seven to eight months, in the ascending and maximum phases of Solar Cycle 24. They share the same properties as the solar QBOs: variable periodicity, intermittency, asymmetric development in the northern and southern solar hemispheres, and largest amplitudes during the maximum phase of solar cycles. The strongest correlation of the temporal variations of the coronal radiance - and consequently the coronal electron density - is found with the total magnetic flux. Considering that the morphology of the solar corona is also directly controlled by the topology of the magnetic field, this correlation reinforces the view that they are intimately connected, including their variability at all timescales.

Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu

2017-12-01

Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.

2016-12-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

Concept definition study of small Brayton cycle engines for dispersed solar electric power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Six, L. D.; Ashe, T. L.; Dobler, F. X.; Elkins, R. T.

1980-01-01

Three first-generation Brayton cycle engine types were studied for solar application: a near-term open cycle (configuration A), a near-term closed cycle (configuration B), and a longer-term open cycle (configuration C). A parametric performance analysis was carried out to select engine designs for the three configurations. The interface requirements for the Brayton cycle engine/generator and solar receivers were determined. A technology assessment was then carried out to define production costs, durability, and growth potential for the selected engine types.

Evaluation of a Revised Interplanetary Shock Prediction Model: 1D CESE-HD-2 Solar-Wind Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Du, A. M.; Du, D.; Sun, W.

2014-08-01

We modified the one-dimensional conservation element and solution element (CESE) hydrodynamic (HD) model into a new version [ 1D CESE-HD-2], by considering the direction of the shock propagation. The real-time performance of the 1D CESE-HD-2 model during Solar Cycle 23 (February 1997 - December 2006) is investigated and compared with those of the Shock Time of Arrival Model ( STOA), the Interplanetary-Shock-Propagation Model ( ISPM), and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 ( HAFv.2). Of the total of 584 flare events, 173 occurred during the rising phase, 166 events during the maximum phase, and 245 events during the declining phase. The statistical results show that the success rates of the predictions by the 1D CESE-HD-2 model for the rising, maximum, declining, and composite periods are 64 %, 62 %, 57 %, and 61 %, respectively, with a hit window of ± 24 hours. The results demonstrate that the 1D CESE-HD-2 model shows the highest success rates when the background solar-wind speed is relatively fast. Thus, when the background solar-wind speed at the time of shock initiation is enhanced, the forecasts will provide potential values to the customers. A high value (27.08) of χ 2 and low p-value (< 0.0001) for the 1D CESE-HD-2 model give considerable confidence for real-time forecasts by using this new model. Furthermore, the effects of various shock characteristics (initial speed, shock duration, background solar wind, longitude, etc.) and background solar wind on the forecast are also investigated statistically.

The effects of solarization on the performance of a gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homann, Christiaan; van der Spuy, Johan; von Backström, Theodor

2016-05-01

Various hybrid solar gas turbine configurations exist. The Stellenbosch University Solar Power Thermodynamic (SUNSPOT) cycle consists of a heliostat field, solar receiver, primary Brayton gas turbine cycle, thermal storage and secondary Rankine steam cycle. This study investigates the effect of the solarization of a gas turbine on its performance and details the integration of a gas turbine into a solar power plant. A Rover 1S60 gas turbine was modelled in Flownex, a thermal-fluid system simulation and design code, and validated against a one-dimensional thermodynamic model at design input conditions. The performance map of a newly designed centrifugal compressor was created and implemented in Flownex. The effect of the improved compressor on the performance of the gas turbine was evident. The gas turbine cycle was expanded to incorporate different components of a CSP plant, such as a solar receiver and heliostat field. The solarized gas turbine model simulates the gas turbine performance when subjected to a typical variation in solar resource. Site conditions at the Helio100 solar field were investigated and the possibility of integrating a gas turbine within this system evaluated. Heat addition due to solar irradiation resulted in a decreased fuel consumption rate. The influence of the additional pressure drop over the solar receiver was evident as it leads to decreased net power output. The new compressor increased the overall performance of the gas turbine and compensated for pressure losses incurred by the addition of solar components. The simulated integration of the solarized gas turbine at Helio100 showed potential, although the solar irradiation is too little to run the gas turbine on solar heat alone. The simulation evaluates the feasibility of solarizing a gas turbine and predicts plant performance for such a turbine cycle.

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

2017-06-01

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2-NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m-2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of -0.04 W m-2. In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of -0.35 K day-1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (-1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (-3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day-1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ˜ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry-climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Long-term response of total ozone content at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres caused by solar activity during 1958-2006 (results of regression analysis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivolutsky, Alexei A.; Nazarova, Margarita; Knyazeva, Galina

Solar activity influences on atmospheric photochemical system via its changebale electromag-netic flux with eleven-year period and also by energetic particles during solar proton event (SPE). Energetic particles penetrate mostly into polar regions and induce additional produc-tion of NOx and HOx chemical compounds, which can destroy ozone in photochemical catalytic cycles. Solar irradiance variations cause in-phase variability of ozone in accordance with photo-chemical theory. However, real ozone response caused by these two factors, which has different physical nature, is not so clear on long-term time scale. In order to understand the situation multiply linear regression statistical method was used. Three data series, which covered the period 1958-2006, have been used to realize such analysis: yearly averaged total ozone at dif-ferent latitudes (World Ozone Data Centre, Canada, WMO); yearly averaged proton fluxes with E¿ 10 MeV ( IMP, GOES, METEOR satellites); yearly averaged numbers of solar spots (Solar Data). Then, before the analysis, the data sets of ozone deviations from the mean values for whole period (1958-2006) at each latitudinal belt were prepared. The results of multiply regression analysis (two factors) revealed rather complicated time-dependent behavior of ozone response with clear negative peaks for the years of strong SPEs. The magnitudes of such peaks on annual mean basis are not greater than 10 DU. The unusual effect -positive response of ozone to solar proton activity near both poles-was discovered by statistical analysis. The pos-sible photochemical nature of found effect is discussed. This work was supported by Russian Science Foundation for Basic Research (grant 09-05-009949) and by the contract 1-6-08 under Russian Sub-Program "Research and Investigation of Antarctica".

Terminator 2020: Get Ready for the "Event" of The Next Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J.; Fan, Y.; Rempel, M.; Dikpati, M.

2017-12-01

The abrupt end of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 at the Sun's equator are observed with instruments from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). These events are remarkable in that they rapidly trigger the onset of magnetic activity belonging to the next solar cycle at mid-latitudes. The triggered onset of new cycle flux emergence leads to blossoming of the new cycle shortly thereafter. Using small-scale tracers of magnetic solar activity we examine the timing of the cycle ``termination points'' in relation to the excitation of new activity and find that the time taken for the solar plasma to communicate this transition is less than one solar rotation, and possibly as little as a eight days. This very short transition time implies that the mean magnetic field present in the Sun's convection zone is approximately 80 kG. This value may be considerably larger than conventional explorations estimate and therefore, have a significant dynamical impact on the physical appearance of solar activity, and considerably impacting our ability to perform first-principles numerical simulations of the same. Should solar cycle 24 [and 25] continue in their progression we anticipate that a termination event of this type should occur in the 2020 timeframe. PSP will have a front row seat to observe this systemic flip in solar magnetism and the induced changes in our star's radiative and partiuculate output. Such observations may prove to be critical in assessing the Sun's ability to force short term evolution in the Earth's atmosphere.

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

Experimental investigation of possible geomagnetic feedback from energetic (0.1 to 16 keV) terrestrial O(+) ions in the magnetotail current sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lennartsson, O. W.; Klumpar, D. M.; Shelley, E. G.; Quinn, J. M.

1994-01-01

Data from energetic ion mass spectrometers on the ISEE 1 and AMPTE/CCE spacecraft are combined with geomagnetic and solar indices to investigate, in a statistical fashion, whether energized O(+) ions of terrestrial origin constitute a source of feedback which triggers or amplifies geomagnetic activity as has been suggested in the literature, by contributing a destabilizing mass increase in the magnetotail current sheet. The ISEE 1 data (0.1-16 keV/e) provide in situ observations of the O(+) concentration in the central plasma sheet, inside of 23 R(sub E), during the rising and maximum phases of solar cycle 21, as well as inner magnetosphere data from same period. The CCE data (0.1-17 keV/e) taken during the subsequent solar minimum all within 9 R(sub E). provide a reference for long-term variations in the magnetosphere O(+) content. Statistical correlations between the ion data and the indices, and between different indices. all point in the same direction: there is probably no feedback specific to the O(+) ions, in spite of the fact that they often contribute most of the ion mass density in the tail current sheet.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

PubMed

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.

2017-12-01

Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Solar luminosity variations in solar cycle 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willson, Richard C.; Hudson, H. S.

1988-01-01

Long-term variations in the solar total irradiance found in the ACRIM I experiment on the SMM satellite have revealed a downward trend during the declining phase of solar cycle 21 of the sunspot cycle, a flat period between mid-1095 and mid-1987, and an upturn in late 1987 which suggests a direct correlation of luminosity and solar active region population. If the upturn continues into the activity maximum of solar cycle 22, a relation between solar activity and luminosity of possible climatological significance could be ascertained. The best-fit relationship for the variation of total irradiance S with sunspot number Rz and 10-cm flux F(10) are S = 1366.82 + 7.71 x 10 to the -3rd Rz and S = 1366.27 + 8.98 x 10 to the -3rd F(10)(W/sq m). These findings could be used to approximate total irradiance variations over the periods for which these indices have been compiled.

Performance comparison of different thermodynamic cycles for an innovative central receiver solar power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes-Belmonte, Miguel A.; Sebastián, Andrés; González-Aguilar, José; Romero, Manuel

2017-06-01

The potential of using different thermodynamic cycles coupled to a solar tower central receiver that uses a novel heat transfer fluid is analyzed. The new fluid, named as DPS, is a dense suspension of solid particles aerated through a tubular receiver used to convert concentrated solar energy into thermal power. This novel fluid allows reaching high temperatures at the solar receiver what opens a wide range of possibilities for power cycle selection. This work has been focused into the assessment of power plant performance using conventional, but optimized cycles but also novel thermodynamic concepts. Cases studied are ranging from subcritical steam Rankine cycle; open regenerative Brayton air configurations at medium and high temperature; combined cycle; closed regenerative Brayton helium scheme and closed recompression supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle. Power cycle diagrams and working conditions for design point are compared amongst the studied cases for a common reference thermal power of 57 MWth reaching the central cavity receiver. It has been found that Brayton air cycle working at high temperature or using supercritical carbon dioxide are the most promising solutions in terms of efficiency conversion for the power block of future generation by means of concentrated solar power plants.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.; Xu, J. C., E-mail: xiejinglan@ynao.ac.cn

Based on continuous wavelet transformation analysis, the daily solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) from 1975 May 16 to 2014 July 31 is analyzed to reveal its rotational behavior. Both the recurrent plot in Bartels form and the continuous wavelet transformation analysis show the existence of rotational modulation in the variation of the daily SMMF. The dependence of the rotational cycle lengths on solar cycle phase is also studied, which indicates that the yearly mean rotational cycle lengths generally seem to be longer during the rising phase of solar cycles and shorter during the declining phase. The mean rotational cycle lengthmore » for the rising phase of all of the solar cycles in the considered time is 28.28 ± 0.67 days, while for the declining phase it is 27.32 ± 0.64 days. The difference of the mean rotational cycle lengths between the rising phase and the declining phase is 0.96 days. The periodicity analysis, through the use of an auto-correlation function, indicates that the rotational cycle lengths have a significant period of about 10.1 years. Furthermore, the cross-correlation analysis indicates that there exists a phase difference between the rotational cycle lengths and solar activity.« less

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relativelymore » new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.« less

Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

2017-06-01

CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different temperatures, enabling low temperature heat recovery from the receiver and Gas Turbine exhaust gasses.

Thermal cycle testing of Space Station Freedom solar array blanket coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheiman, David A.; Schieman, David A.

1991-01-01

Lewis Research Center is presently conducting thermal cycle testing of solar array blanket coupons that represent the baseline design for Space Station Freedom. Four coupons were fabricated as part of the Photovoltaic Array Environment Protection (PAEP) Program, NAS 3-25079, at Lockheed Missile and Space Company. The objective of the testing is to demonstrate the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within the durability or operational lifetime of the solar array welded interconnect design within a low earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycling environment. Secondary objectives include the observation and identification of potential failure modes and effects that may occur within the solar array blanket coupons as a result of thermal cycling. The objectives, test articles, test chamber, performance evaluation, test requirements, and test results are presented for the successful completion of 60,000 thermal cycles.

Solar Demon: near real-time solar eruptive event detection on SDO/AIA images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis

Solar flares, dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) images of the Sun since 1996. These events are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. The Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) generates such a massive dataset that it becomes impossible to find most of these eruptive events manually. Solar Demon is a set of automatic detection algorithms that attempts to solve this problem by providing both near real-time warnings of eruptive events and a catalog of characterized events. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on SDO/AIA data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data and synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will focus on the algorithm and its operational implementation. Examples of interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24 will be presented as well.

Solar Demon: near real-time Flare, Dimming and EUV wave monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis

Dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in EUV images since 1996. They are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. On the one hand, automatic detection and characterization of dimmings and EUV waves can be used to gain better understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. On the other hand, every dimming and EUV wave provides extra information on the associated front side CME, and can improve estimates of the geo-effectiveness and arrival time of the CME. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data, as well as synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will show several interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and present general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24.

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deland, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1994-01-01

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

Forecast for solar cycle 23 activity: a progress report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

2001-08-01

At the 25th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) at Durban, South Africa, I announced the discovery of a three cycle quasi-periodicity in the ion chamber data string assembled by me, for the 1937 to 1994 period (Conf. Pap., v. 2, p. 109, 1997). It corresponded in time with a similar quasi-periodicity observed in the dataset for the planetary index Ap. At the 26th ICRC at Salt Lake City, UT, I reported on our analysis of the Ap data to forecast the amplitude of solar cycle 23 activity (Conf. Pap., v. 2, pl. 260, 1999). I predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17), notwithstanding the early exuberant forecasts of some solar astronomers that cycle 23, "may be one of the greatest cycles in recent times, if not the greatest." Sunspot number data up to April 2001 indicate that our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We review the solar, interplanetary and geophysical data and describe the important lessons learned from this experience. 1. Introduction Ohl (1971) was the first to realize that Sun may be sending us a subliminal message as to its intent for its activity (Sunspot Numbers, SSN) in the next cycle. He posited that the message was embedded in the geomagnetic activity (given by sum Kp). Schatten at al (1978) suggested that Ohl hypothesis could be understood on the basis of the model proposed by Babcock (1961) who suggested that the high latitude solar poloidal fields, near a minimum, emerge as the toroidal fields on opposite sides of the solar equator. This is known as the Solar Dynamo Model. One can speculate that the precursor poloidal solar field is entrained in the high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) from the coronal holes which are observed at Earth's orbit during the descending phase of the previous cycle. The interaction

The temperature of quiescent streamers during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landi, E.; Testa, P.

2014-05-20

Recent in-situ determinations of the temporal evolution of the charge state distribution in the fast and slow solar wind have shown a general decrease in the degree of ionization of all the elements in the solar wind along solar cycles 23 and 24. Such a decrease has been interpreted as a cooling of the solar corona which occurred during the decline and minimum phase of solar cycle 23 from 2000 to 2010. In the present work, we investigate whether spectroscopic determinations of the temperature of the quiescent streamers show signatures of coronal plasma cooling during cycles 23 and 24. Wemore » measure the coronal electron density and thermal structure at the base of 60 quiescent streamers observed from 1996 to 2013 by SOHO/SUMER and Hinode/EIS and find that both quantities do now show any significant dependence on the solar cycle. We argue that if the slow solar wind is accelerated from the solar photosphere or chromosphere, the measured decrease in the in-situ wind charge state distribution might be due to an increased efficiency in the wind acceleration mechanism at low altitudes. If the slow wind originates from the corona, a combination of density and wind acceleration changes may be responsible for the in-situ results.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

The 11 Year Solar Cycle Response of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Observed by GPS Radio Occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, King-Fai; Lin, Li-Ching; Bui, Xuan-Hien; Liang, Mao-Chang

2018-01-01

We have retrieved the latitudinal and vertical structures of the 11 year solar cycle modulation on ionospheric electron density using 14 years of satellite-based radio occultation measurements utilizing the Global Positioning System. The densities at the crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the subtropics near 300 km in 2003 and 2014 (high solar activity with solar 10.7 cm flux, F10.7 ≈ 140 solar flux unit (sfu)) were 3 times higher than that in 2009 (low solar activity F10.7 ≈ 70 sfu). The higher density is attributed to the elevated solar extreme ultraviolet and geomagnetic activity during high solar activity periods. The location of the EIA crests moved 50 km upward and 10° poleward, because of the enhanced E × B force. The EIA in the northern hemisphere was more pronounced than that in the southern hemisphere. This interhemispheric asymmetry is consistent with the effect of enhanced transequatorial neutral wind. The above observations were reproduced qualitatively by the two benchmark runs of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. In addition, we have studied the impact of the 11 year solar cycle on the 27 day solar cycle response of the ionospheric electron density. Beside the expected modulation on the amplitude of the 27 day solar variation due to the 11 year solar cycle, we find that the altitude of the maximal 27 day solar response is unexpectedly 50 km higher than that of the 11 year solar response. This is the first time that a vertical dependence of the solar responses on different time scales is reported.

Helioseismic Observations of Two Solar Cycles and Constraints on Dynamo Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, Alexander

2018-01-01

Helioseismology data from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017 for almost two solar cycles, provide a unique opportunity to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and link these variations to the current dynamo models and simulations. The solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splitting of medium-degree p- and f-modes, as well as helioseismic inversions have been used to analyze variations of the differential rotation (“torsional oscillations”) and the global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the synoptic surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and evolution of the solar cycles, 23 and 24. The observational results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the dynamics of the tachocline and near-surface shear layer, and also may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles and detect the onset of the next cycle.

Prediction of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays and radiation dose of aircrews up to the solar cycle 26

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.

2016-12-01

The solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), which is the variation of the terrestrial GCR flux caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity with so-called 11-year periodicity. In the current weak solar cycle 24, we expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the solar modulation of GCRs. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind velocity, the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and its tilt angle. We solve the curvature and gradient drift motion of GCRs in the heliospheric magnetic field, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the solar modulation of GCRs. It is quantitatively confirmed that our model reproduces the energy spectra observed by BESS and PAMELA. We then calculate the variation of the GCR energy spectra during the solar cycles 24, 25, and 26, by extrapolating the solar wind parameters and tilt angle. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In this presentation, we report the quantitative forecast values of the solar modulation of GCRs, neutron monitor counting rate, and the radiation dose at flight altitude up to the cycle 26, including the discussion of the charge sign dependence on those results.

Low energy neutrinos in Super-Kamiokande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiya, Hiroyuki

2016-05-01

Super-Kamiokande (SK), a 50 kton water Cherenkov detector, observes 8B solar neutrinos via neutrino-electron elastic scattering. The analysis threshold was successfully lowered to 3.5 MeV (recoil electron kinetic energy) in SK-IV. To date SK has observed solar neutrinos for 18 years. An analysis regarding possible correlations between the solar neutrino flux and the 11 year solar activity cycle is shown. With large statistics, SK searches for distortions of the solar neutrino energy spectrum caused by the MSW resonance in the core of the sun. SK also searches for a day/night solar neutrino flux asymmetry induced by the matter in the Earth. The Super-Kamiokande Gd (SK-Gd) project is the upgrade of the SK detector via the addition of water-soluble gadolinium (Gd) salt. This modification will enable it to efficiently identify low energy anti-neutrinos. SK-Gd will pursue low energy physics currently inaccessible to SK due to backgrounds. The most important will be the world’s first observation of the diffuse supernova neutrino background. The main R&D program towards SK-Gd is EG ADS: a 200 ton, fully instrumented tank built in a new cavern in the Kamioka mine.

Helioseismic inferences of the solar cycles 23 and 24: GOLF and VIRGO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.

2014-12-01

The Sun-as-a star helioseismic spectrophotometer GOLF and photometer VIRGO instruments onboard the SoHO spacecraft are collecting high-quality, continuous data since April 1996. We analyze here these unique datasets in order to investigate the peculiar and weak on-going solar cycle 24. As this cycle 24 is reaching its maximum, we compare its rising phase with the rising phase of the previous solar cycle 23.

Simulating the Outer Radiation Belt During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Glocer, Alex; Zheng, Qiuhua; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Kanekal, Shri; Nagai, Tsungunobu; Albert, Jay

2011-01-01

After prolonged period of solar minimum, there has been an increase in solar activity and its terrestrial consequences. We are in the midst of the rising phase of solar cycle 24, which began in January 2008. During the initial portion of the cycle, moderate geomagnetic storms occurred follow the 27 day solar rotation. Most of the storms were accompanied by increases in electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt. These enhancements were often preceded with rapid dropout at high L shells. We seek to understand the similarities and differences in radiation belt behavior during the active times observed during the of this solar cycle. This study includes extensive data and simulations our Radiation Belt Environment Model. We identify the processes, transport and wave-particle interactions, that are responsible for the flux dropout and the enhancement and recovery.

Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roelof, E. C.; Gold, R. E.

1978-01-01

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

Observations of Solar Spectral Irradiance Change During Cycle 22 from NOAA-9 SBUV/2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

2003-01-01

The NOM-9 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, model 2 (SBUV/2) instrument is one of a series of instruments providing daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the middle and near ultraviolet since 1978. The SBUV/2 instruments are primarily designed to measure stratospheric profile and total column ozone, using the directional albedo as the input to the ozone processing algorithm. As a result, the SBUV/2 instrument does not have onboard monitoring of all time-dependent response changes. We have applied internal comparisons and vicarious (external) comparisons to determine the long-term instrument characterization for NOAA-9 SBUV/2 to derive accurate solar spectral irradiances from March 1985 to May 1997 spanning two solar cycle minima with a single instrument. The NOAA-9 data show an amplitude of 9.3(+/- 2.3)% (81-day averaged) at 200-205 nm for solar cycle 22. This is consistent with the result of (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 8.3(+/- 2.6)% for cycle 21 from Nimbus-7 SBUV and (Delta)F(sub 200-205) = 10(+/- 2)% (daily values) for cycle 23 from UARS SUSIM. NOAA-9 data at 245-250 nm show a solar cycle amplitude of (Delta)F(sub 245-250) = 5.7(+/- 1.8)%. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 data can be combined with other instruments to create a 25-year record of solar UV irradiance.

Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, Mustapha

2015-08-01

One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoegy, W. R.; Wolff, C. L.

1989-01-01

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

Statistical analysis of geomagnetic field variations during solar eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung-Hee; Chang, Heon-Young

2018-04-01

We investigate the geomagnetic field variations recorded by INTERMAGNET geomagnetic observatories, which are observed while the Moon's umbra or penumbra passed over them during a solar eclipse event. Though it is generally considered that the geomagnetic field can be modulated during solar eclipses, the effect of the solar eclipse on the observed geomagnetic field has proved subtle to be detected. Instead of exploring the geomagnetic field as a case study, we analyze 207 geomagnetic manifestations acquired by 100 geomagnetic observatories during 39 solar eclipses occurring from 1991 to 2016. As a result of examining a pattern of the geomagnetic field variation on average, we confirm that the effect can be seen over an interval of 180 min centered at the time of maximum eclipse on a site of a geomagnetic observatory. That is, demonstrate an increase in the Y component of the geomagnetic field and decreases in the X component and the total strength of the geomagnetic field. We also find that the effect can be overwhelmed, depending more sensitively on the level of daily geomagnetic events than on the level of solar activity and/or the phase of solar cycle. We have demonstrated it by dividing the whole data set into subsets based on parameters of the geomagnetic field, solar activity, and solar eclipses. It is suggested, therefore, that an evidence of the solar eclipse effect can be revealed even at the solar maximum, as long as the day of the solar eclipse is magnetically quiet.

QBO of temperature in mesopause and lower thermosphere caused by solar activity variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shefov, N. N.; Semenov, A. I.

2003-04-01

On the basis of the data of the emission (hydroxyl, sodium and atomic oxygen 557.7 nm) and radiophysical (87-107 km) measurements some regularities of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the atmospheric temperature at heights of the mesopause and lower thermosphere are investigated. It is shown, that they are closely connected with quasi-biennial variations of solar activity and form within the limits of a cycle of solar activity the fading wave train of oscillations. Such behaviour of the wave train can be adequately described by the Airy function. As a result of the analysis of characteristics of QBO of solar activity during 17-23rd cycles it is shown, that to each 11-years cycle correspond its wave train of QBO. Amplitudes and periods of this wave train decrease during a cycle, i.e. it represents Not harmonious oscillation but it is a cyclic aperiodic oscillation (CAO). Therefore usual methods of Fourier analysis used earlier did not result in the same values of the period. The wave train of the current cycle begins at the end of previous and some time together with the subsequent cycle proceeds. Thus, the time sequence of activity during solar cycle represents superposition of three wave trains. Period of CAO in the beginning of a cycle has ~ 38 months and decreases to the end of a cycle up to ~ 21 months. The first wide negative minimum of Airy function describing of the wave train of CAO corresponds to solar activity minimum in the 11-year cycle. The time scale of the wave train varies from one cycle to another. Full duration of individual wave train is ~ 22 years. Owing to a mutual interference of the consecutive wave trains in the 11-year cycles the observable variations of solar activity are not identical. Structure of CAO obviously displays magnetohydrodynamic processes inside the Sun. This work was supported by the Grant No. 2274 of ISTC.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

On the Influence of the Solar Bi-Cycle on Comic Ray Modulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifter, N. Part Xxvii: A. Defect Of The Solar Dynamo. B.; Scissors, K.; Sprucener, H.

In this presentation we propose a new paradigm that explains the different lengths of individual solar Hale cycles. It proves beneficial to distinguish between a so-called inHale and ex-Hale cycle, which together form the solar bi-cycle. We carefully analyzed the influence of so-called complex mode excitations (CMEs) on comic ray modulation, in particular on the drifts of the comic isotope O+3 , which we found to induce characteristic anisotropies. This comic isotope anisotropy (CIA) is caused by the wellknown north-south asymmetry (NSA) and can be observed as a rare Forbush increase (FBI). The latter is linked to the solar magnetic field which appears to have a chaotic behaviour (for details see part I-XXVI). Especially during an ex-Hale cycle magnetic flux is pseudo-pneumatically escaping through a coronal hole. Consequently, the solar dynamo can no longer operate efficiently, i.e. is defect.

The effect of the solar field reversal on the modulation of galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, B. T.; Goldstein, B. E.

1983-01-01

There is now a growing awareness that solar cycle related changes in the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may play an important role in the modulation of galactic cosmic rays. To date, attention focussed on two aspects of the magnetic field structure: large scale compression regions produced by fast solar wind streams and solar flares, both of which are known to vary in intensity and number over the solar cycle, and the variable warp of the heliospheric current sheet. It is suggested that another feature of the solar cycle is worthy of consideration: the field reversal itself. If the Sun reverses its polarity by simply overturning the heliospheric current sheet (northern fields migrating southward and vice-versa) then there may well be an effect on cosmic ray intensity. However, such a simple picture of solar reversal seems improbable. Observations of the solar corona suggest the existence of not one but several current sheets in the heliosphere at solar maximum. The results of a simple calculation to demonstrate that the variation in cosmic ray intensities that will result can be as large as is actually observed over the solar cycle are given.

Solar rotational modulations of spectral irradiance and correlations with the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-09-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Solar Rotational Modulations of Spectral Irradiance and Correlations with the Variability of Total Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Aims: We characterize the solar rotational modulations of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and compare them with the corresponding changes of total solar irradiance (TSI). Solar rotational modulations of TSI and SSI at wavelengths between 120 and 1600 nm are identified over one hundred Carrington rotational cycles during 2003-2013. Methods: The SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) and TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics)/SEE (Solar EUV Experiment) measured and SATIRE-S modeled solar irradiances are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to determine the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI and SSI. Results: The mode decomposition clearly identifies 27-day solar rotational variations in SSI between 120 and 1600 nm, and there is a robust wavelength dependence in the phase of the rotational mode relative to that of TSI. The rotational modes of visible (VIS) and near infrared (NIR) are in phase with the mode of TSI, but the phase of the rotational mode of ultraviolet (UV) exhibits differences from that of TSI. While it is questionable that the VIS to NIR portion of the solar spectrum has yet been observed with sufficient accuracy and precision to determine the 11-year solar cycle variations, the temporal variations over one hundred cycles of 27-day solar rotation, independent of the two solar cycles in which they are embedded, show distinct solar rotational modulations at each wavelength.

Gaussianity versus intermittency in solar system plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, M.

2014-12-01

Statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with the dynamics of the targeted system and sometimes with the physical processes that are at the origin of these fluctuations. Intermittency is sometimes discussed in terms of non-Gaussianity of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of fluctuations for ranges of spatio/temporal scales. Some examples of self-similarity have been however shown for PDFs whose wings are not Gaussian. In this study we discuss intermittency in terms of non-Gaussianity as well as scale dependence of the higher order moments of PDFs, in particular the flatness. We use magnetic field and plasma data from several space missions, in the solar wind (Ulysses, Cluster, and Venus Express), and in the planetary magnetosheaths (Cluster and Venus Express). We analyze Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We investigate Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We study Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), and the magnetosheath. We organize our results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the statistical properties of fluctuations for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence and complexity, and the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a grant of the Romanian CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Changes of Linearity in MF2 Index with R12 and Solar Activity Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, L.

2013-05-01

Critical frequency of F2 layer is related to the solar activity, and the sunspot number has been the standard index for ionospheric prediction programs. This layer, being considered the most important in HF radio communications due to its highest electron density, determines the maximum frequency coming back from ground base transmitter signals, and shows irregular variation in time and space. Nowadays the spatial variation, better understood due to the availability of TEC measurements, let Space Weather Centers have observations almost in real time. However, it is still the most difficult layer to predict in time. Short time variations are improved in IRI model, but long term predictions are only related to the well-known CCIR and URSI coefficients and Solar activity R12 predictions, (or ionospheric indexes in regional models). The concept of the "saturation" of the ionosphere is based on data observations around 3 solar cycles before 1970, (NBS, 1968). There is a linear relationship among MUF (0Km) and R12, for smooth Sunspot numbers R12 less than 100, but constant for higher R12, so, no rise of MUF is expected for R12 higher than 100. This recommendation has been used in most of the known Ionospheric prediction programs for HF Radio communication. In this work, observations of smoothed ionospheric index MF2 related to R12 are presented to find common features of the linear relationship, which is found to persist in different ranges of R12 depending on the specific maximum level of each solar cycle. In the analysis of individual solar cycles, the lapse of linearity is less than 100 for a low solar cycle and higher than 100 for a high solar cycle. To improve ionospheric predictions we can establish levels for solar cycle maximum sunspot numbers R12 around low 100, medium 150 and high 200 and specify the ranges of linearity of MUF(0Km) related to R12 which is not only 100 as assumed for all the solar cycles. For lower levels of solar cycle, discussions of present observations are presented.

Experimental study of refrigeration performance based on linear Fresnel solar thermal photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinghui; Yuan, Hui; Xia, Yunfeng; Kan, Weimin; Deng, Xiaowen; Liu, Shi; Liang, Wanlong; Deng, Jianhua

2018-03-01

This paper introduces the working principle and system constitution of the linear Fresnel solar lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle, and elaborates several typical structures of absorption refrigeration cycle, including single-effect, two-stage cycle and double-effect lithium bromide absorption refrigeration cycle A 1.n effect absorption chiller system based on the best parameters was introduced and applied to a linear Fresnel solar absorption chiller system. Through the field refrigerator performance test, the results show: Based on this heat cycle design and processing 1.n lithium bromide absorption refrigeration power up to 35.2KW, It can meet the theoretical expectations and has good flexibility and reliability, provides guidance for the use of solar thermal energy.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

1995-01-01

A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

Thermodynamic and design considerations of organic Rankine cycles in combined application with a solar thermal gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, R.; Kusterer, K.; Sugimoto, T.; Tanimura, K.; Bohn, D.

2013-12-01

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies are considered to provide a significant contribution for the electric power production in the future. Different kinds of technologies are presently in operation or under development, e.g. parabolic troughs, central receivers, solar dish systems and Fresnel reflectors. This paper takes the focus on central receiver technologies, where the solar radiation is concentrated by a field of heliostats in a receiver on the top of a tall tower. To get this CSP technology ready for the future, the system costs have to reduce significantly. The main cost driver in such kind of CSP technologies are the huge amount of heliostats. To reduce the amount of heliostats, and so the investment costs, the efficiency of the energy conversion cycle becomes an important issue. An increase in the cycle efficiency results in a decrease of the solar heliostat field and thus, in a significant cost reduction. The paper presents the results of a thermodynamic model of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) for combined cycle application together with a solar thermal gas turbine. The gas turbine cycle is modeled with an additional intercooler and recuperator and is based on a typical industrial gas turbine in the 2 MW class. The gas turbine has a two stage radial compressor and a three stage axial turbine. The compressed air is preheated within a solar receiver to 950°C before entering the combustor. A hybrid operation of the gas turbine is considered. In order to achieve a further increase of the overall efficiency, the combined operation of the gas turbine and an Organic Rankine Cycle is considered. Therefore an ORC has been set up, which is thermally connected to the gas turbine cycle at two positions. The ORC can be coupled to the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle at the intercooler and after the recuperator. Thus, waste heat from different cycle positions can be transferred to the ORC for additional production of electricity. Within this investigation different working fluids and ORC conditions have been analyzed in order to evaluate the best configuration. The investigations have been performed by application of improved thermodynamic and process analysis tools, which consider the real gas behavior of the analyzed fluids. The results show that by combined operation of the solar thermal gas turbine and the ORC, the combined cycle efficiency is approximately 4%-points higher than in the solar-thermal gas turbine cycle.

Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2010-01-01

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuss, H. E.

1980-01-01

For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

Radiation exposure of German aircraft crews under the impact of solar cycle 23 and airline business factors.

PubMed

Frasch, Gerhard; Kammerer, Lothar; Karofsky, Ralf; Schlosser, Andrea; Stegemann, Ralf

2014-12-01

The exposure of German aircraft crews to cosmic radiation varies both with solar activity and operational factors of airline business. Data come from the German central dose registry and cover monthly exposures of up to 37,000 German aircraft crewmembers that were under official monitoring. During the years 2004 to 2009 of solar cycle 23 (i.e., in the decreasing phase of solar activity), the annual doses of German aircraft crews increased by an average of 20%. Decreasing solar activity allows more galactic radiation to reach the atmosphere, increasing high-altitude doses. The rise results mainly from the less effective protection from the solar wind but also from airline business factors. Both cockpit and cabin personnel differ in age-dependent professional and social status. This status determines substantially the annual effective dose: younger cabin personnel and the elder pilots generally receive higher annual doses than their counterparts. They also receive larger increases in their annual dose when the solar activity decreases. The doses under this combined influence of solar activity and airline business factors result in a maximum of exposure for German aircrews for this solar cycle. With the increasing solar activity of the current solar cycle 24, the doses are expected to decrease again.

A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, Janet

2007-05-01

A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo.

PHOTOMETRIC TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SOLAR CONTINUUM AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO THE CENTER-TO-LIMB PROFILE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peck, C. L.; Rast, M. P.

2015-08-01

Solar irradiance variations over solar rotational timescales are largely determined by the passage of magnetic structures across the visible solar disk. Variations on solar cycle timescales are thought to be similarly due to changes in surface magnetism with activity. Understanding the contribution of magnetic structures to total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance requires assessing their contributions as a function of disk position. Since only relative photometry is possible from the ground, the contrasts of image pixels are measured with respect to a center-to-limb intensity profile. Using nine years of full-disk red and blue continuum images from the Precision Solarmore » Photometric Telescope at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, we examine the sensitivity of continuum contrast measurements to the center-to-limb profile definition. Profiles which differ only by the amount of magnetic activity allowed in the pixels used to determine them yield oppositely signed solar cycle length continuum contrast trends, either agreeing with previous results and showing negative correlation with solar cycle or disagreeing and showing positive correlation with solar cycle. Changes in the center-to-limb profile shape over the solar cycle are responsible for the contradictory contrast results, and we demonstrate that the lowest contrast structures, internetwork and network, are most sensitive to these. Thus the strengths of the full-disk, internetwork, and network photometric trends depend critically on the magnetic flux density used in the quiet-Sun definition. We conclude that the contributions of low contrast magnetic structures to variations in the solar continuum output, particularly to long-term variations, are difficult, if not impossible, to determine without the use of radiometric imaging.« less

Simulating the Heliosphere with Kinetic Hydrogen and Dynamic MHD Source Terms

DOE PAGES

Heerikhuisen, Jacob; Pogorelov, Nikolai; Zank, Gary

2013-04-01

The interaction between the ionized plasma of the solar wind (SW) emanating from the sun and the partially ionized plasma of the local interstellar medium (LISM) creates the heliosphere. The heliospheric interface is characterized by the tangential discontinuity known as the heliopause that separates the SW and LISM plasmas, and a termination shock on the SW side along with a possible bow shock on the LISM side. Neutral Hydrogen of interstellar origin plays a critical role in shaping the heliospheric interface, since it freely traverses the heliopause. Charge-exchange between H-atoms and plasma protons couples the ions and neutrals, but themore » mean free paths are large, resulting in non-equilibrated energetic ion and neutral components. In our model, source terms for the MHD equations are generated using a kinetic approach for hydrogen, and the key computational challenge is to resolve these sources with sufficient statistics. For steady-state simulations, statistics can accumulate over arbitrarily long time intervals. In this paper we discuss an approach for improving the statistics in time-dependent calculations, and present results from simulations of the heliosphere where the SW conditions at the inner boundary of the computation vary according to an idealized solar cycle.« less

Latitude Distribution of Sunspots: Analysis Using Sunspot Data and a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sudip; Karak, Bidya Binay; Banerjee, Dipankar

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the equator and then (before the usual solar minimum) these two distributions touch each other. By visualizing the evolution of the distributions in two hemispheres, we separate the solar cycles by excluding this hemispheric overlap. From these isolated solar cycles in two hemispheres, we generate latitude distributions for each cycle, starting from cycle 8 to cycle 23. We find that the parameters of these distributions, namely the central latitude (C), width (δ), and height (H), evolve with the cycle number, and they show some hemispheric asymmetries. Although the asymmetries in these parameters persist for a few successive cycles, they get corrected within a few cycles, and the new asymmetries appear again. In agreement with the previous study, we find that distribution parameters are correlated with the strengths of the cycles, although these correlations are significantly different in two hemispheres. The general trend features, i.e., (i) stronger cycles that begin sunspot eruptions at relatively higher latitudes, and (ii) stronger cycles that have wider bands of sunspot emergence latitudes, are confirmed when combining the data from two hemispheres. We explore these features using a flux transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations. We find that these features are correctly reproduced in this model. The solar cycle evolution of the distribution center is also in good agreement with observations. Possible explanations of the observed features based on this dynamo model are presented.

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, Bimal

Geoeffectiveness during the early phase of Solar Cycle 24 \\underline{} Abstract\\underline{} It is very important and interesting to understand the solar eruptions because it produces the geoeffectiveness in our Earth environment. In the rise phase of the solar cycle, geoeffective events are less frequent, thus this provide us better opportunity to study these events including the detection of their source regions. Keeping this in mind, we have analysed the data of rise phase of current solar cycle 24 ( 2009-2012). During above time period, we have selected 59 geoeffective events having Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index < -50 nT. Based on the Dst index, we divided the events into two categories i.e. moderate (< -50 nT > -100 nT ) and intense ( <-100 nT). To locate the solar source regions of geoeffective and SEPs associated events, we have used available images, movies and Solar Geophysical data (SGD) list: for example movies from SOHO/EIT, images and movies from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). In this study, we will discuss and compare the different properties of associated CMEs, flares and their relation with geoeffectiveness.

Integration of photovoltaic and concentrated solar thermal technologies for H2 production by the hybrid sulfur cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberatore, Raffaele; Ferrara, Mariarosaria; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca

2017-06-01

It is widely agreed that hydrogen used as energy carrier and/or storage media may significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions, especially if produced by renewable energy sources. The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) cycle is considered as one of the most promising processes to produce hydrogen through the water-splitting process. The FP7 project SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) investigates innovative material and process solutions for the use of solar heat and power in the HyS process. A significant part of the SOL2HY2 project is devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar and chemical (hydrogen production) plants. In this context, this work investigates the possibility to integrate different solar technologies, namely photovoltaic, solar central receiver and solar troughs, to optimize their use in the HyS cycle for a green hydrogen production, both in the open and closed process configurations. The analysis carried out accounts for different combinations of geographical location and plant sizing criteria. The use of a sulfur burner, which can serve both as thermal backup and SO2 source for the open cycle, is also considered.

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Skylab 2 Solar Physics Experiment. This black and white view of a solar flare was taken from the skylab remote solar experiment module mounted on top of the vehicle and worked automatically without any interaction from the crew. Solar flares or sunspots are eruptions on the sun's surface and appear to occur in cycles. When these cycles occur, there is worldwide electromagnetic interference affecting radio and television transmission.

Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scafetta, Nicola

2016-04-01

The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which would be produced mostly by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. Scafetta, N.: Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle. J. Atmos. Sol.- Terr. Phys. 80, 296-311 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Does the Sun work as a nuclear fusion amplifier of planetary tidal forcing? A proposal for a physical mechanism based on the mass-luminosity relation. J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 81-82, 27-40 (2012). Scafetta, N.: Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques. Astrophys. Space Sci. 354, 275-299 (2014).

A Solar-luminosity Model and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Charles A.

1990-01-01

Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

DOEpatents

Bharathan, D.; Bohn, M.S.; Williams, T.A.

1995-05-23

A hybrid combined cycle power plant is described including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production. 1 figure.

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

2008-02-01

In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lodhi, M. A. K.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Prithvi Raj; Saxena, A. K.; Tiwari, C. M.

2018-04-01

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986-2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger ({˜ }130 to {˜ }190 days), quasi-period ({˜ }200 to {˜ }374 days), and quasi-biennial periodicities ({˜ }1.20 to {˜ }3.27 years) during the combined solar cycles 22-23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of {˜ }1.43 years and for solar flare index of {˜ }1.41 year, and galactic cosmic ray, {˜ }1.35 year, during combined solar cycles 22-23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22-23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (Rc = 2.43GV) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.

Length of the solar cycle influence on the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the length of the solar cycle on the relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship is different according to the length of the solar cycle. When the sunspot cycle is 10 or 11 years long, wintertime NAO and NHT are positively correlated, being the signal more intense during 11 years period, but when the sunspot cycle is longer (12 years) correlations between wintertime NAO and NHT are not significant. In fact there are significant negative correlations between wintertime NAO and spring NHT, with predictive potential.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curdt, W.; Fleck, B.

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to ≈77% of its original level over roughly 1 1/2 solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that during solar cycle 23 (1996 Apr 1 -- 2008 Aug 31) only 6% of the total number of SSR SEUs were caused by SEPs; the remaining 94% were due to galactic cosmic rays. During the maximum period of cycle 23 (2000 Jan 1 -- 2003 Dec 31), the SEP contribution increased to 22%, and during 2001, the year with the highest SEP rate, to 30%. About 40% of the total solar array degradation during the 17 years from Jan 1996 through Feb 2013 can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent SEP events is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B.

2003-01-01

We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle.

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

A search for evidence of solar rotation in Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Shantanu; Liu, Dawei W.

2016-09-01

We apply the generalized Lomb-Scargle (LS) periodogram, proposed by Zechmeister and Kurster, to the solar neutrino data from Super-Kamiokande (Super-K) using data from its first five years. For each peak in the LS periodogram, we evaluate the statistical significance in two different ways. The first method involves calculating the False Alarm Probability (FAP) using non-parametric bootstrap resampling, and the second method is by calculating the difference in Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) between the null hypothesis, viz. the data contains only noise, compared to the hypothesis that the data contains a peak at a given frequency. Using these methods, we scan the frequency range between 7-14 cycles per year to look for any peaks caused by solar rotation, since this is the proposed explanation for the statistically significant peaks found by Sturrock and collaborators in the Super-K dataset. From our analysis, we do confirm that similar to Sturrock et al, the maximum peak occurs at a frequency of 9.42/year, corresponding to a period of 38.75 days. The FAP for this peak is about 1.5% and the difference in BIC (between pure white noise and this peak) is about 4.8. We note that the significance depends on the frequency band used to search for peaks and hence it is important to use a search band appropriate for solar rotation. However, The significance of this peak based on the value of BIC is marginal and more data is needed to confirm if the peak persists and is real.

ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT AREA OVER TWO SOLAR CYCLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Toma, G.; Chapman, G. A.; Preminger, D. G.

2013-06-20

We examine changes in sunspots and faculae and their effect on total solar irradiance during solar cycles 22 and 23 using photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory. We find important differences in the very large spots between the two cycles, both in their number and time of appearance. In particular, there is a noticeable lack of very large spots in cycle 23 with areas larger than 700 millionths of a solar hemisphere which corresponds to a decrease of about 40% relative to cycle 22. We do not find large differences in the frequencies of small to medium spots betweenmore » the two cycles. There is a decrease in the number of pores and very small spots during the maximum phase of cycle 23 which is largely compensated by an increase during other phases of the solar cycle. The decrease of the very large spots, in spite of the fact that they represent only a few percent of all spots in a cycle, is primarily responsible for the observed changes in total sunspot area and total sunspot deficit during cycle 23 maximum. The cumulative effect of the decrease in the very small spots is an order of magnitude smaller than the decrease caused by the lack of large spots. These data demonstrate that the main difference between cycles 22 and 23 was in the frequency of very large spots and not in the very small spots, as previously concluded. Analysis of the USAF/NOAA and Debrecen sunspot areas confirms these findings.« less

Is motivation influenced by geomagnetic activity?

PubMed

Starbuck, S; Cornélissen, G; Halberg, F

2002-01-01

To eventually build a scientific bridge to religion by examining whether non-photic, non-thermic solar effects may influence (religious) motivation, invaluable yearly world wide data on activities from 1950 to 1999 by Jehovah's Witnesses on behalf of their church were analyzed chronobiologically. The time structure (chronome) of these archives, insofar as it is able to be evaluated in yearly means for up to half a century, was assessed. Least squares spectra in a frequency range from one cycle in 42 to one in 2.1 years of data on the average number of hours per month spent in work for the church, available from 103 different geographic locations, as well as grand totals also including other sites, revealed a large peak at one cycle in about 21 years. The non-linear least squares fit of a model consisting of a linear trend and a cosine curve with a trial period of 21.0 years, numerically approximating that of the Hale cycle, validated the about 21.0-year component in about 70% of the data series, with the non-overlap of zero by the 95% confidence interval of the amplitude estimate. Estimates of MESOR (midline-estimating statistic of rhythm, a rhythm (or chronome) adjusted mean), amplitude and period were further regressed with geomagnetic latitude. The period estimate did not depend on geomagnetic latitude. The about 21.0-year amplitude tends to be larger at low and middle than at higher latitudes and the resolution of the about 21.0-year cycle, gauged by the width of 95% confidence intervals for the period and amplitude, is higher (the 95% confidence intervals are statistically significantly smaller) at higher than at lower latitudes. Near-matches of periods in solar activity and human motivation hint that the former may influence the latter, while the dependence on latitude constitutes evidence that geomagnetic activity may affect certain brain areas involved in motivation, just as it was earlier found that it is associated with effects on the electrocardiogram and anthropometry.

A study of the possible relation of the cardiac arrhythmias occurrence to the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromichalaki, H.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Theodoropoulou, A.; Paouris, E.; Apostolou, Th.

2017-01-01

The biological human system is probably affected by the solar and geomagnetic disturbances as well as the cosmic ray variations. In this work, the relation between the solar activity and cosmic ray variations and the cardiac arrhythmias over the time period 1997-2009 covering the solar cycle 23, is studied. The used medical data set refers to 4741 patients with cardiac arrhythmias and 2548 of whom were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, obtained from the 2nd Cardiological Clinic of the General Hospital of Nicaea, Piraeus, in Greece. The smoothing method on a 365-day basis and the Pearson r-coefficient were used in order to compare these records with the number of sunspots, flares, solar proton events, coronal mass ejections and cosmic ray intensity. Applying a moving correlation function to ±1500 days, it is suggested that a change of the correlation sign between the medical data and each one of the above parameters occurs during a time interval of about 2-3 years. This interval corresponds to the time span of the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field of this solar cycle, which always takes place around the solar cycle maximum. After then a correlation analysis was carried out corresponding to the rise (1997-2001) and the decay (2002-2009) phases of the solar cycle 23. It is noticeable that the polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field coincides with the period where the sign of the correlation between the incidence of arrhythmias and the occurrence number of the solar eruptive events and the cosmic ray intensity, changes sign. The results are comparable with those obtained from the previous solar cycle 22 based on medical data from another country.

The Sun's Seismic Radius as Measured from the Fundamental Modes of Oscillations and Its Implications for the TSI Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Kiran; Tripathy, S. C.; Hill, F.

2018-05-01

In this Letter we explore the relationship between the solar seismic radius and total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last two solar cycles using the uninterrupted data from space-borne instruments on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The seismic radius is calculated from the fundamental (f) modes of solar oscillations utilizing the observations from SoHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the TSI measurements are obtained from SoHO/VIRGO. Our study suggests that the major contribution to the TSI variation arises from the changes in magnetic field, while the radius variation plays a secondary role. We find that the solar irradiance increases with decreasing seismic radius; however, the anti-correlation between them is moderately weak. The estimated maximum change in seismic radius during a solar cycle is about 5 km, and is consistent in both solar cycles 23 and 24. Previous studies ;suggest a radius change at the surface of the order of 0.06 arcsec to explain the 0.1% variation in the TSI values during the solar cycle; however, our inferred seismic radius change is significantly smaller, hence the TSI variations cannot be fully explained by the temporal changes in seismic radius.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Brum, C. G.

2013-05-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred in Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the XXIII solar activity cycle. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65oN) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Polar low ionospheric responses to the most energetic SPE of the solar cycle#23 based on cosmic noise absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacini, A. A.; Garnett Marques Brum, C.

2013-12-01

We present a detailed study of the impact of solar proton event over the polar low ionosphere, occurred Jan/2005, during the descendent phase of the last solar activity cycle XXIII. This event was the hardest SPE of the last solar cycle, and was associated to a solar X-ray flare X.2 and CME halo. For this study, we are using cosmic noise absorption data measured by a riometer located in Oulu, Finland (65N) along with solar proton data from GOES satellite. Based on computation simulations we intend to explain the 30MHz riometer absorption events based on variations of the flux and spectrum of the energetic particle precipitated.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences over the Winter Arctic Simulated by the WACCM4 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations.

Multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles integrated with solar central receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez Padilla, Ricardo; Soo Too, Yen Chean; Benito, Regano; McNaughton, Robbie; Stein, Wes

2018-01-01

In this paper, optimisation of the supercritical CO? Brayton cycles integrated with a solar receiver, which provides heat input to the cycle, was performed. Four S-CO? Brayton cycle configurations were analysed and optimum operating conditions were obtained by using a multi-objective thermodynamic optimisation. Four different sets, each including two objective parameters, were considered individually. The individual multi-objective optimisation was performed by using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm. The effect of reheating, solar receiver pressure drop and cycle parameters on the overall exergy and cycle thermal efficiency was analysed. The results showed that, for all configurations, the overall exergy efficiency of the solarised systems achieved at maximum value between 700°C and 750°C and the optimum value is adversely affected by the solar receiver pressure drop. In addition, the optimum cycle high pressure was in the range of 24.2-25.9 MPa, depending on the configurations and reheat condition.

Decadal power in land air temperatures: Is it statistically significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thejll, Peter A.

2001-12-01

The geographical distribution and properties of the well-known 10-11 year signal in terrestrial temperature records is investigated. By analyzing the Global Historical Climate Network data for surface air temperatures we verify that the signal is strongest in North America and is similar in nature to that reported earlier by R. G. Currie. The decadal signal is statistically significant for individual stations, but it is not possible to show that the signal is statistically significant globally, using strict tests. In North America, during the twentieth century, the decadal variability in the solar activity cycle is associated with the decadal part of the North Atlantic Oscillation index series in such a way that both of these signals correspond to the same spatial pattern of cooling and warming. A method for testing statistical results with Monte Carlo trials on data fields with specified temporal structure and specific spatial correlation retained is presented.

SUN-LIKE MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE RAPIDLY ROTATING YOUNG SOLAR ANALOG HD 30495

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egeland, Ricky; Metcalfe, Travis S.; Hall, Jeffrey C.

A growing body of evidence suggests that multiple dynamo mechanisms can drive magnetic variability on different timescales, not only in the Sun but also in other stars. Many solar activity proxies exhibit a quasi-biennial (∼2 year) variation, which is superimposed upon the dominant 11 year cycle. A well-characterized stellar sample suggests at least two different relationships between rotation period and cycle period, with some stars exhibiting long and short cycles simultaneously. Within this sample, the solar cycle periods are typical of a more rapidly rotating star, implying that the Sun might be in a transitional state or that it hasmore » an unusual evolutionary history. In this work, we present new and archival observations of dual magnetic cycles in the young solar analog HD 30495, a ∼1 Gyr old G1.5 V star with a rotation period near 11 days. This star falls squarely on the relationships established by the broader stellar sample, with short-period variations at ∼1.7 years and a long cycle of ∼12 years. We measure three individual long-period cycles and find durations ranging from 9.6 to 15.5 years. We find the short-term variability to be intermittent, but present throughout the majority of the time series, though its occurrence and amplitude are uncorrelated with the longer cycle. These essentially solar-like variations occur in a Sun-like star with more rapid rotation, though surface differential rotation measurements leave open the possibility of a solar equivalence.« less

Orbital Debris Quarterly News. Volume 13; No. 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C. (Editor); Shoots, Debi (Editor)

2009-01-01

Topics discussed include: new debris from a decommissioned satellite with a nuclear power source; debris from the destruction of the Fengyun-1C meteorological satellite; quantitative analysis of the European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle 'Jules Verne' reentry event; microsatellite impact tests; solar cycle 24 predictions and other long-term projections and geosynchronus (GEO) environment for the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008). Abstracts from the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, examining satellite reentry risk assessments and statistical issues for uncontrolled reentry hazards, are also included.

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

11- and 22-year variations of the cosmic ray density and of the solar wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirkov, N. P.

1985-01-01

Cosmic ray density variations for 17-21 solar activity cycles and the solar wind speed for 20-21 events are investigated. The 22-year solar wind speed recurrence was found in even and odd cycles. The 22-year variations of cosmic ray density were found to be opposite that of solar wind speed and solar activity. The account of solar wind speed in 11-year variations significantly decreases the modulation region of cosmic rays when E = 10-20 GeV.

The 11-year solar radiation rhythm and the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank

2016-04-01

The study is based on a historical chronology of freezing events in central Europe during the last 230 years (river Rhine (Sirocko et al. 2012), Baltic Sea (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999) and Lake Constance (Dobras, 1983)). These regions display both significant similarities with extremely cold winters in central Germany for the years 1799, 1830, 1895, 1929, 1940, 1942, 1947, 1956 and 1963, as well as regional differences in timing and severity of cold winters. The statistical analysis of all 92 historical freezing events showed that 80 events occurred during a negative NAOwinter phase. The bootstrap test defined the results as extremely significant. To understand the climatic forcing behind the freezing chronology the NAO data set was smoothed by a three point running mean filter and compared with the 11- year cyclicity of the sunspot numbers. A complete NAO cycle can be observed within each solar cycle back to 1960 and from 1820 to 1900. From 1900 to 1960 the correlation between the Sun and NAO was weak. This on/off mode becomes visible only in the smoothed NAO data, when time intervals longer than "normal" weather observations are analysed. Statistical test for the coherence of the entire 230 years are insignificant. However, the relation is highly significant, if only the intervals from 1960 to 2010 and 1830 to 1900 are analysed. The phase correlation can be explained by temperature variations up to +-2.5°C in time series of stratospheric air temperature at 40 km height, where ozone is formed by ultraviolet solar radiation. Advanced analysis of sea surface temperatures from reanalysis data (ECMWF Data Archiv, 2013) between 30° - 40°N and 65° - 75°N indicate similar temperature variations in phase with the solar activity. Consequently, the 11 year solar periodicity is related to various parts of the Earth/Ocean/Atmosphere system and not only to the stratospheric signal. However, the NAO is the dominating mediator to implement a solar component into the European winter extremes. References Dobras W (1983) Wenn der ganze Bodensee zugefroren ist … Die Seegfrörnen von 875-1963. Verlag Friedrich Stadler, Konstanz. ECMWF Data Archiv Server (2011) ERA interim data: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/ Koslowski G, Glaser G (1999) Variations in reconstructed winter severity in the western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications from the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Change, 41(2), 175-191. Sirocko F, Brunck H, Pfahl S (2012) Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16).

Study of radiatively sustained cesium plasmas for solar energy conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, A. J.; Dunning, G. J.

1980-01-01

The results of a study aimed at developing a high temperature solar electric converter are reported. The converter concept is based on the use of an alkali plasma to serve as both an efficient high temperature collector of solar radiation as well as the working fluid for a high temperature working cycle. The working cycle is a simple magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Rankine cycle employing a solid electrode Faraday MHD channel. Research milestones include the construction of a theoretical model for coupling sunlight in a cesium plasma and the experimental demonstration of cesium plasma heating with a solar simulator in excellent agreement with the theory. Analysis of a solar MHD working cycle in which excimer laser power rather than electric power is extracted is also presented. The analysis predicts a positive gain coefficient on the cesium-xenon excimer laser transition.

Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glackin, D. L.; Huning, J. R.; Smith, J. H.; Logan, T. L.

1984-01-01

Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

2017-12-01

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be observed and physical processes to be studied. This result potentially opens the door to a broader understanding of solar variability on our planet and its weather. Ongoing tracking of solar magnetic band migration indicates that Cycle 24 will terminate in the 2020 timeframe and thus we may expect to see an attendant shift to La Niña conditions at that time.

Study the gradient characteristics of the ionosphere at equatorial latitude during the latest cycle of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen Thai, Chinh; Temitope Seun, Oluwadare; Le Thi, Nhung; Schuh, Harald

2017-04-01

The sun has its own seasons with an average duration of about 11 years. In this time, the sun enters a period of increased activity called the solar maximum and a period of decreased activity called the solar minimum. Cycles span from one minimum to the next. The current solar cycle is 24, which began on January 4, 2008 and is expected to be ended in 2019. During this period, the ionosphere changes its thickness and its characteristics as well. The change is most complicated and unpredictable at the equatorial latitudes in a band around 150 northward and 150 southward from the equator. Thailand is located in these regions is known as one of the countries most affected by the ionosphere change. Ionospheric information such as the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and scintillation indices can be extracted from the measurements of GNSS dual-frequency receivers. In this study, a Matlab tool is programmed to calculate some ionosphere parameters from the normal RINEX observation file including VTEC value, amplitude scintillation S4 index and others. The value of VTEC at one IGS station in Thailand (13.740N, 100.530E) is computed for almost one full solar cycle, that is 8 years, from 2009 to 2016. From these results, we are able to derive the rules of TEC variation over time and its dependence on solar activity in the equatorial regions. The change of VTEC is estimated in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation for the latest solar cycle. The solar cycle can be represented in several ways, in this paper we use the sunspot number and the F10.7 cm radio flux to describe the solar activity. The correlation coefficients between these solar indices and the monthly maximum of VTEC value are around 0.87, this indicates a high dependence of the ionosphere on solar activity. Besides, a scintillation map derived from GNSS data is displayed to indicate the intensity of scintillation activity.

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth

2001-01-01

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Variations of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic parameters with solar magnetic multipole fields during Solar Cycles 21-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bogyeong; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Oh, Suyeon

2015-01-01

In this study we compare the temporal variations of the solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic (SIG) parameters with that of open solar magnetic flux from 1976 to 2012 (from Solar Cycle 21 to the early phase of Cycle 24) for a purpose of identifying their possible relationships. By the open flux, we mean the average magnetic field over the source surface (2.5 solar radii) times the source area as defined by the potential field source surface (PFSS) model of the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). In our result, most SIG parameters except the solar wind dynamic pressure show rather poor correlations with the open solar magnetic field. Good correlations are recovered when the contributions from individual multipole components are counted separately. As expected, solar activity indices such as sunspot number, total solar irradiance, 10.7 cm radio flux, and solar flare occurrence are highly correlated with the flux of magnetic quadrupole component. The dynamic pressure of solar wind is strongly correlated with the dipole flux, which is in anti-phase with Solar Cycle (SC). The geomagnetic activity represented by the Ap index is correlated with higher order multipole components, which show relatively a slow time variation with SC. We also found that the unusually low geomagnetic activity during SC 23 is accompanied by the weak open solar fields compared with those in other SCs. It is argued that such dependences of the SIG parameters on the individual multipole components of the open solar magnetic flux may clarify why some SIG parameters vary in phase with SC and others show seemingly delayed responses to SC variation.

Closed Cycle Engine Program Used in Solar Dynamic Power Testing Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ensworth, Clint B., III; McKissock, David B.

1998-01-01

NASA Lewis Research Center is testing the world's first integrated solar dynamic power system in a simulated space environment. This system converts solar thermal energy into electrical energy by using a closed-cycle gas turbine and alternator. A NASA-developed analysis code called the Closed Cycle Engine Program (CCEP) has been used for both pretest predictions and post-test analysis of system performance. The solar dynamic power system has a reflective concentrator that focuses solar thermal energy into a cavity receiver. The receiver is a heat exchanger that transfers the thermal power to a working fluid, an inert gas mixture of helium and xenon. The receiver also uses a phase-change material to store the thermal energy so that the system can continue producing power when there is no solar input power, such as when an Earth-orbiting satellite is in eclipse. The system uses a recuperated closed Brayton cycle to convert thermal power to mechanical power. Heated gas from the receiver expands through a turbine that turns an alternator and a compressor. The system also includes a gas cooler and a radiator, which reject waste cycle heat, and a recuperator, a gas-to-gas heat exchanger that improves cycle efficiency by recovering thermal energy.

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee

2000-01-01

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Weizheng; Li, Chun; Du, Ling

2014-12-01

Based on spectrum analysis, we provide the arithmetic expressions of the quasi 11 yr cycle, 110 yr century cycle of relative sunspot numbers, and quasi 22 yr cycle of solar magnetic field polarity. Based on a comparative analysis of the monthly average geopotential height, geopotential height anomaly, and temperature anomaly of the northern hemisphere at locations with an air pressure of 500 HPa during the positive and negative phases of AO (Arctic Oscillation), one can see that the abnormal warming period in the Arctic region corresponds to the negative phase of AO, while the anomalous cold period corresponds to itsmore » positive phase. This shows that the abnormal change in the Arctic region is an important factor in determining the anomalies of AO. In accordance with the analysis performed using the successive filtering method, one can see that the AO phenomenon occurring in January shows a clear quasi 88 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle, which are closely related to solar activities. The results of our comparative analysis show that there is a close inverse relationship between the solar activities (especially the solar magnetic field index changes) and the changes in the 22 yr cycle of the AO occurring in January, and that the two trends are basically opposite of each other. That is to say, in most cases after the solar magnetic index MI rises from the lowest value, the solar magnetic field turns from north to south, and the high-energy particle flow entering the Earth's magnetosphere increases to heat the polar atmosphere, thus causing the AO to drop from the highest value; after the solar magnetic index MI drops from the highest value, the solar magnetic field turns from south to north, and the solar high-energy particle flow passes through the top of the Earth's magnetosphere rather than entering it to heat the polar atmosphere. Thus the polar temperature drops, causing the AO to rise from the lowest value. In summary, the variance contribution rate of the changes in the quasi 110 yr century cycle and quasi 22 yr decadal cycle for the AO reaches 62.9%, indicating that solar activity is an important driving factor of the AO.« less

Observations of Space Weather and Space Climate Over the Past 15 Years From SABER (And Longer!)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Marty; Hunt, Linda; Russell, James M., III

2016-01-01

The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

Intensity Variations of Narrow Bands of Solar UV Radiation during Descending Phases of SACs 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigolashvili, M.; Kapanadze, N.

2014-12-01

The study of variations of four narrow bands of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet (UV) range for period 1981-2008 is presented. Observational data obtained by space-flight missions SORCE, UARS, SME and daily meanings of international sunspot number (ISN) have been used. The investigated data cover the decreasing phases of the solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23. We have revealed a peculiar behavior of intensity variability of some solar ultraviolet spectral lines originated in the solar chromospheres for period corresponding to the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. It is found that variability of emission of different solar spectral narrow bands (289.5 nm, 300.5 nm) does not agree equally well with ISN variability during decreasing phase of the solar activity cycle 23. The negative correlations between total solar irradiance and the solar spectral narrow bands of UV emission (298.5 nm, 300.5 nm) had been revealed. The existence of the negative correlation can be explained by the sensitivity of SSI of some emission lines to the solar global magnetic field.

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armand, Sasan C.; Liao, Mei-Hwa; Morris, Ronald W.

1990-01-01

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

The relationship between VHF radar auroral backscatter amplitude and Doppler velocity: a statistical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shand, B. A.; Lester, M.; Yeoman, T. K.

1996-08-01

A statistical investigation of the relationship between VHF radar auroral backscatter intensity and Doppler velocity has been undertaken with data collected from 8 years operation of the Wick site of the Sweden And Britain Radar-auroral Experiment (SABRE). The results indicate three different regimes within the statistical data set; firstly, for Doppler velocities <200 m s-1, the backscatter intensity (measured in decibels) remains relatively constant. Secondly, a linear relationship is observed between the backscatter intensity (in decibels) and Doppler velocity for velocities between 200 m s-1 and 700 m s-1. At velocities greater than 700 m s-1 the backscatter intensity saturates at a maximum value as the Doppler velocity increases. There are three possible geophysical mechanisms for the saturation in the backscatter intensity at high phase speeds: a saturation in the irregularity turbulence level, a maximisation of the scattering volume, and a modification of the local ambient electron density. There is also a difference in the dependence of the backscatter intensity on Doppler velocity for the flow towards and away from the radar. The results for flow towards the radar exhibit a consistent relationship between backscatter intensity and measured velocities throughout the solar cycle. For flow away from the radar, however, the relationship between backscatter intensity and Doppler velocity varies during the solar cycle. The geometry of the SABRE system ensures that flow towards the radar is predominantly associated with the eastward electrojet, and flow away is associated with the westward electrojet. The difference in the backscatter intensity variation as a function of Doppler velocity is attributed to asymmetries between the eastward and westward electrojets and the geophysical parameters controlling the backscatter amplitude.

Detection of Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar EUV Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominique, M.; Zhukov, A. N.; Dolla, L.; Inglis, A.; Lapenta, G.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) are intrinsically connected to the mechanism of solar flares. They are regularly observed in the impulsive phase of flares since the 1970s. In the past years, the studies of QPPs regained interest with the advent of a new generation of soft X-ray/extreme ultraviolet radiometers that pave the way for statistical surveys. Since the amplitude of QPPs in these wavelengths is rather small, detecting them implies that the overall trend of the time series needs to be removed before applying any Fourier or wavelet transform. This detrending process is known to produce artificial detection of periods that must then be distinguished from real ones. In this paper, we propose a set of criteria to help identify real periods and discard artifacts. We apply these criteria to data taken by the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE)/ESP onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Large Yield Radiometer (LYRA) onboard the PRoject for On-Board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) to search for QPPs in flares stronger than M5.0 that occurred during Solar Cycle 24.

Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, K.

2011-12-01

The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

The economics of solar powered absorption cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartlett, J. C.

1978-01-01

Analytic procedure evaluates cost of combining absorption-cycle chiller with solar-energy system in residential or commercial application. Procedure assumes that solar-energy system already exists to heat building and that cooling system must be added. Decision is whether to cool building with conventional vapor-compression-cycle chiller or to use solar-energy system to provide heat input to absorption chiller.

On the statistical characteristics of radio-loud and radio-quiet halo coronal mass ejections and their associated flares during solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Nishant; Sharma, Joginder; Verma, Virendar Kumar; Garg, Vijay

2016-08-01

We have studied the characteristics of radio-loud (RL) and radio-quiet (RQ) front side halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) (angular width 360°) observed between the time period years 1996-2014. RL-HCMEs are associated with type II radio bursts, while RQ-HCMEs are not associated with type II radio bursts. CMEs near the Sun in the interplanetary medium associated with radio bursts also affect the magnetosphere. The type II radio burst data was observed by WIND/WAVES instrument and HCMEs were observed by LASCO/ SOHO instruments. In our study, we have examined the properties of RL-HCMEs and RQ-HCMEs and found that RL-HCMEs follow the solar cycle variation. Our study also shows that the 26% of slow speed HCMEs and 82% of fast speed HCMEs are RL. The average speed of RL-HCMEs and RQ-HCMEs are 1370 km/s and 727 km/s, respectively. Most of the RQ-HCMEs occur around the solar disc center while most of RL-HCMEs are uniformly distributed across the solar disc. The mean value of acceleration of RL-HCMEs is more than twice that of RQ-HCMEs and mean value of deceleration of RL- HCMEs is very small compare to RQ-HCMEs events. It is also found that RQ-HCMEs events are associated with C- and M-class of SXR flares, while RL-HCMEs events are associated with M and X-class of SXR flares, which indicates that the RQ-HCMEs are less energetic than the RL-HCMEs. We have also discussed the various results obtained in present investigation in view of recent scenario of solar physics.

A reexamination of the QBO period modulation by the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, P.; Tung, K. K.

2008-04-01

Using the updated Singapore wind from 1953 to 2007 for the lower stratosphere 70-10 hPa, courtesy of Barbara Naujokat of Free University of Berlin, we examine the variation of the period of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) as a function of height and its modulation in time by the 11-year solar cycle. The analysis is supplemented by the ERA-40 reanalysis up to 1 hPa. Previously, it was reported that the descent of the easterly shear zone tends to stall near 30 hPa during solar minimum, leading to a lengthened QBO westerly duration near 44-50 hPa and the reported anticorrelation of the westerly duration and the solar cycle. Using an objective method, continuous wavelet transform (CWT), for the determination of local QBO period, we find that the whole QBO period is almost invariant with respect to height, so that the stalling mechanism affects only the partition of the whole period between easterly and westerly durations. Using this longest data set available for equatorial stratospheric wind, which spans five and half solar cycles (six solar minima), we find that in three solar minima, the QBO period is lengthened, while in the remaining almost three solar cycles, the QBO period is lengthened instead at solar maxima. We suggest that the decadal variation of the QBO period originates in the upper stratosphere, where the solar-ozone radiative influence is strong. The solar modulation of the QBO period is found to be nonstationary; the averaged effect cannot be determined unless the data record is much longer. In shorter records, the correlation can change sign, as we have found in segments of the longest record available, with or without lag.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Technical and economic feasibility study of solar/fossil hybrid power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomfield, H. S.; Calogeras, J. E.

1977-01-01

Results show that new hybrid systems utilizing fossil fuel augmentation of solar energy can provide significant capital and energy cost benefits when compared with solar thermal systems requiring thermal storage. These benefits accrue from a reduction of solar collection area that results from both the use of highly efficient gas and combined cycle energy conversion subsystems and elimination of the requirement for long-term energy storage subsystems. Technical feasibility and fuel savings benefits of solar hybrid retrofit to existing fossil-fired, gas and vapor cycle powerplants was confirmed; however, economic viability of steam cycle retrofit was found to be dependent on the thermodynamic and operational characteristics of the existing powerplant.

Ground-Level Solar Cosmic Ray Data from Solar Cycle 19

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shea, M. A.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to locate, catalog, and assemble, in standard computer format, ground-level solar cosmic ray data acquired by cosmic ray detectors for selected events in the 19th solar cycle. The events for which we initially proposed to obtain these data were for the events of 23 February 1956,4 May 1960, 12 and 15 November 1960 and 18 and 20 July 1961. These were the largest events of the 19th solar cycle. However, a severe (more than 50%) reduction in the requested funding, required the work effort be limited to neutron monitor data for the 23 February 1956 event and the three major events in 1960.

The Global Oscillation Network Group site survey, 2: Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Frank; Fischer, George; Forgach, Suzanne; Grier, Jennifer; Leibacher, John W.; Jones, Harrison P.; Jones, Patricia B.; Kupke, Renate; Stebbins, Robin T.; Clay, Donald W.

1994-01-01

The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Project will place a network of instruments around the world to observe solar oscillations as continuously as possible for three years. The Project has now chosen the six network sites based on analysis of survey data from fifteen sites around the world. The chosen sites are: Big Bear Solar Observatory, California; Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, Hawaii; Learmonth Solar Observatory, Australia; Udaipur Solar Observatory, India; Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife; and Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory, Chile. Total solar intensity at each site yields information on local cloud cover, extinction coefficient, and transparency fluctuations. In addition, the performance of 192 reasonable networks assembled from the individual site records is compared using a statistical principal components analysis. An accompanying paper descibes the analysis methods in detail; here we present the results of both the network and individual site analyses. The selected network has a duty cycle of 93.3%, in good agreement with numerical simulations. The power spectrum of the network observing window shows a first diurnal sidelobe height of 3 x 10(exp -4) with respect to the central component, an improvement of a factor of 1300 over a single site. The background level of the network spectrum is lower by a factor of 50 compared to a single-site spectrum.

Energy comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novosel, Urška; Avsec, Jurij

2017-07-01

The combined use of renewable energy and alternative energy systems and better efficiency of energy devices is a promising approach to reduce effects due to global warming in the world. On the basis of first and second law of thermodynamics we could optimize the processes in the energy sector. The presented paper shows the comparison between solar thermal power plant and photovoltaic power plant in terms of energy, exergy and life cycle analysis. Solar thermal power plant produces electricity with basic Rankine cycle, using solar tower and solar mirrors to produce high fluid temperature. Heat from the solar system is transferred by using a heat exchanger to Rankine cycle. Both power plants produce hydrogen via electrolysis. The paper shows the global efficiency of the system, regarding production of the energy system.

Stationarity and periodicities of linear speed of coronal mass ejection: a statistical signal processing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyay, Anirban; Khondekar, Mofazzal Hossain; Bhattacharjee, Anup Kumar

2017-09-01

In this paper initiative has been taken to search the periodicities of linear speed of Coronal Mass Ejection in solar cycle 23. Double exponential smoothing and Discrete Wavelet Transform are being used for detrending and filtering of the CME linear speed time series. To choose the appropriate statistical methodology for the said purpose, Smoothed Pseudo Wigner-Ville distribution (SPWVD) has been used beforehand to confirm the non-stationarity of the time series. The Time-Frequency representation tool like Hilbert Huang Transform and Empirical Mode decomposition has been implemented to unearth the underneath periodicities in the non-stationary time series of the linear speed of CME. Of all the periodicities having more than 95% Confidence Level, the relevant periodicities have been segregated out using Integral peak detection algorithm. The periodicities observed are of low scale ranging from 2-159 days with some relevant periods like 4 days, 10 days, 11 days, 12 days, 13.7 days, 14.5 and 21.6 days. These short range periodicities indicate the probable origin of the CME is the active longitude and the magnetic flux network of the sun. The results also insinuate about the probable mutual influence and causality with other solar activities (like solar radio emission, Ap index, solar wind speed, etc.) owing to the similitude between their periods and CME linear speed periods. The periodicities of 4 days and 10 days indicate the possible existence of the Rossby-type waves or planetary waves in Sun.

Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

2001-01-01

Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern Hemisphere at mid and high latitudes also get strongly influenced by the annual cycles of solar heating. The SST influence is largely limited to the oceanic regions of these latitudes; (3) The annual mode of precipitation over Amazonia has an equatorial regime revealing a maxima in the month of March associated with SST, and another maxima in the month of January associated with the solar annual cycles, respectively. The baseline simulation, which has both annual cycles, depicts both annual modes and its rainfall is virtually equal to the sum of those two modes; (4) Rainfall over Sahelian-Africa is significantly reduced (increased) in simulations lacking (invoking) solar irradiation with (without) the annual cycle. In fact, the dominant influence of solar irradiation emerges in almost all monsoonal-land regions: India, Southeast Asia, as well as Australia. The only exception is the Continental United States, where solar annual cycle shows only a relatively minor influence on the annual mode of rainfall.

ANALYSIS OF SEEING-INDUCED POLARIZATION CROSS-TALK AND MODULATION SCHEME PERFORMANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casini, R.; De Wijn, A. G.; Judge, P. G.

2012-09-20

We analyze the generation of polarization cross-talk in Stokes polarimeters by atmospheric seeing, and its effects on the noise statistics of spectropolarimetric measurements for both single-beam and dual-beam instruments. We investigate the time evolution of seeing-induced correlations between different states of one modulation cycle and compare the response to these correlations of two popular polarization modulation schemes in a dual-beam system. Extension of the formalism to encompass an arbitrary number of modulation cycles enables us to compare our results with earlier work. Even though we discuss examples pertinent to solar physics, the general treatment of the subject and its fundamentalmore » results might be useful to a wider community.« less

Carrington cycle 24: the solar chromospheric emission in a historical and stellar perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder, K.-P.; Mittag, M.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Jack, D.; Hempelmann, A.; González-Pérez, J. N.

2017-09-01

We present the solar S-index record of cycle 24, obtained by the Telescopio Internacional de Guanajuato, Robotico Espectroscopico robotic telescope facility and its high-resolution spectrograph HEROS (R ≈ 20 000), which measures the solar chromospheric Ca II H&K line emission by using moonlight. Our calibration process uses the same set of standard stars as introduced by the Mount Wilson team, thus giving us a direct comparison with their huge body of observations taken between 1966 and 1992, as well as with other cool stars. Carrington cycle 24 activity started from the unusually deep and long minimum 2008/2009, with an S-index average of only 0.154, 0.015 deeper than the one of 1986 (〈S〉 = 0.169). In this respect, the chromospheric radiative losses differ remarkably from the variation of the coronal radio flux F10.7 cm and the sunspot numbers. In addition, the cycle 24 S-amplitude remained small, 0.022 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.024), and so resulted in a very low 2014 maximum of 〈S〉 = 0.176 (cycles 21 and 22 averaged: 0.193). We argue that this find is significant, since the Ca II H&K line emission is a good proxy for the solar far-ultraviolet (far-UV) flux, which plays an important role in the heating of the Earth's stratosphere, and we further argue that the solar far-UV flux changes with solar activity much more strongly than the total solar output.

SIMULATION STUDY OF HEMISPHERIC PHASE-ASYMMETRY IN THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukuya, D.; Kusano, K., E-mail: kusano@nagoya-u.jp

2017-01-20

Observations of the Sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north–south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar cycle. Svalgaard and Kamide recently pointed out that the time gaps of polar field reversal between the northern and southern hemispheres are simply consequences of the asymmetry of sunspot activity. However, the mechanism underlying the asymmetric feature in solar cycle activity is not yet well understood. In this paper, in order to explain the cause of the asymmetry from the theoretical point of view, we investigatemore » the relationship between the dipole- and quadrupole-type components of the magnetic field in the solar cycle using the mean-field theory based on the flux transport dynamo model. As a result, we found that there are two different attractors of the solar cycle, in which either the north or the south polar field is first reversed, and that the flux transport dynamo model explains well the phase-asymmetry of sunspot activity and the polar field reversal without any ad hoc source of asymmetry.« less

Review of the Two-Step H2O/CO2-Splitting Solar Thermochemical Cycle Based on Zn/ZnO Redox Reactions

PubMed Central

Loutzenhiser, Peter G.; Meier, Anton; Steinfeld, Aldo

2010-01-01

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the work to date on the two‑step solar H2O and/or CO2 splitting thermochemical cycles with Zn/ZnO redox reactions to produce H2 and/or CO, i.e., synthesis gas—the precursor to renewable liquid hydrocarbon fuels. The two-step cycle encompasses: (1) The endothermic dissociation of ZnO to Zn and O2 using concentrated solar energy as the source for high-temperature process heat; and (2) the non-solar exothermic oxidation of Zn with H2O/CO2 to generate H2/CO, respectively; the resulting ZnO is then recycled to the first step. An outline of the underlying science and the technological advances in solar reactor engineering is provided along with life cycle and economic analyses. PMID:28883361

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Long dance of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiltula, T.; Mursula, K.

2006-02-01

In this letter we extend our earlier analysis of the north-south asymmetry of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) using a recent data set of heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) sector polarities extracted from ground-based magnetic observations. We find that the heliospheric current sheet is similarly southward coned or shifted during the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle in the early part of the studied data interval (1926-1955), as earlier found for the more recent solar cycles. Accordingly, the HCS has been southward shifted; that is, the solar ballerina has been bashful at least during the last 80 years. We also discuss solar cycle 19 which presents a period of a very curious behaviour for the HCS with an exceptionally large HMF toward sector dominance in 1957, the year of cycle 19 maximum, and an equally strong HMF away sector dominance in 1960, the time of final solar polarity reversal.

Simulated space environment tests on cadmium sulfide solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, D. R.; Oman, H.

1971-01-01

Cadmium sulfide (Cu2s - CdS) solar cells were tested under simulated space environmental conditions. Some cells were thermally cycled with illumination from a Xenon-arc solar simulator. A cycle was one hour of illumination followed immediately with one-half hour of darkness. In the light, the cells reached an equilibrium temperature of 60 C (333 K) and in the dark the cell temperature dropped to -120 C (153 K). Other cells were constantly illuminated with a Xenon-arc solar simulator. The equilibrium temperature of these cells was 55 C (328 K). The black vacuum chamber walls were cooled with liquid nitrogen to simulate a space heat sink. Chamber pressure was maintained at 0.000001 torr or less. Almost all of the solar cells tested degraded in power when exposed to a simulated space environment of either thermal cycling or constant illumination. The cells tested the longest were exposed to 10.050 thermal cycles.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.

2016-12-01

Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.

Construction of a century solar chromosphere data set for solar activity related research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ganghua; Wang, Xiao Fan; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Suo; Zhang, Mei; Wang, Haimin; Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Tlatov, Andrey; Demidov, Mihail; Borovik, Aleksandr; Golovko, Aleksey

2017-06-01

This article introduces our ongoing project "Construction of a Century Solar Chromosphere Data Set for Solar Activity Related Research". Solar activities are the major sources of space weather that affects human lives. Some of the serious space weather consequences, for instance, include interruption of space communication and navigation, compromising the safety of astronauts and satellites, and damaging power grids. Therefore, the solar activity research has both scientific and social impacts. The major database is built up from digitized and standardized film data obtained by several observatories around the world and covers a time span of more than 100 years. After careful calibration, we will develop feature extraction and data mining tools and provide them together with the comprehensive database for the astronomical community. Our final goal is to address several physical issues: filament behavior in solar cycles, abnormal behavior of solar cycle 24, large-scale solar eruptions, and sympathetic remote brightenings. Significant signs of progress are expected in data mining algorithms and software development, which will benefit the scientific analysis and eventually advance our understanding of solar cycles.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Substorm occurrence rates, substorm recurrence times, and solar wind structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borovsky, Joseph E.; Yakymenko, Kateryna

2017-03-01

Two collections of substorms are created: 28,464 substorms identified with jumps in the SuperMAG AL index in the years 1979-2015 and 16,025 substorms identified with electron injections into geosynchronous orbit in the years 1989-2007. Substorm occurrence rates and substorm recurrence-time distributions are examined as functions of the phase of the solar cycle, the season of the year, the Russell-McPherron favorability, the type of solar wind plasma at Earth, the geomagnetic-activity level, and as functions of various solar and solar wind properties. Three populations of substorm occurrences are seen: (1) quasiperiodically occurring substorms with recurrence times (waiting times) of 2-4 h, (2) randomly occurring substorms with recurrence times of about 6-15 h, and (3) long intervals wherein no substorms occur. A working model is suggested wherein (1) the period of periodic substorms is set by the magnetosphere with variations in the actual recurrence times caused by the need for a solar wind driving interval to occur, (2) the mesoscale structure of the solar wind magnetic field triggers the occurrence of the random substorms, and (3) the large-scale structure of the solar wind plasma is responsible for the long intervals wherein no substorms occur. Statistically, the recurrence period of periodically occurring substorms is slightly shorter when the ram pressure of the solar wind is high, when the magnetic field strength of the solar wind is strong, when the Mach number of the solar wind is low, and when the polar-cap potential saturation parameter is high.

Application of solar energy to air conditioning systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nash, J. M.; Harstad, A. J.

1976-01-01

The results of a survey of solar energy system applications of air conditioning are summarized. Techniques discussed are both solar powered (absorption cycle and the heat engine/Rankine cycle) and solar related (heat pump). Brief descriptions of the physical implications of various air conditioning techniques, discussions of status, proposed technological improvements, methods of utilization and simulation models are presented, along with an extensive bibliography of related literature.

Quasi-periodic changes in the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays for 1965-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modzelewska, R.; Alania, M. V.

2018-01-01

Aims: We study features of the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) for 1965-2014 (almost five solar cycles, cycles 20-24). We analyze the 27-day variations of the 2D GCR anisotropy in the ecliptic plane and the north-south anisotropy normal to the ecliptic plane. We study the dependence of the 27-day variation of the 3D GCR anisotropy on the solar cycle and solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the 27-day variations of the GCR intensity and anisotropy can be used as an important tool to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. Methods: We used the components Ar, Aϕ and At of the 3D GCR anisotropy that were found based on hourly data of neutron monitors (NMs) and muon telescopes (MTs) using the harmonic analyses and spectrographic methods. We corrected the 2D diurnal ( 24-h) variation of the GCR intensity for the influence of the Earth magnetic field. We derived the north-south component of the GCR anisotropy based on the GG index, which is calculated as the difference in GCR intensities of the Nagoya multidirectional MTs. Results: We show that the behavior of the 27-day variation of the 3D anisotropy verifies a stable long-lived active heliolongitude on the Sun. This illustrates the usefulness of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy as a unique proxy to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. We distinguish a tendency of the 22-yr changes in amplitude of the 27-day variation of the 2D anisotropy that is connected with the solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the north-south component of the anisotropy vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, but a dependence of the solar magnetic polarity can hardly be recognized. We show that the 27-day recurrences of the GG index and the At component are highly positively correlated, and both are highly correlated with the By component of the heliospheric magnetic field.

A solar cycle timing predictor - The latitude of active regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1990-01-01

A 'Spoerer butterfly' method is used to examine solar cycle 22. It is shown from the latitude of active regions that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 + or - 8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.

Solar-powered air-conditioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, D. C.; Rousseau, J.

1977-01-01

Report focuses on recent study on development of solar-powered residential air conditioners and is based on selected literature through 1975. Its purposes are to characterize thermal and mechanical systems that might be useful in development of Rankine-cycle approach to solar cooling and assessment of a Lithium Bromide/Water absorption cycle system.

Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Fifteen years in the high-energy life of the solar-type star HD 81809. XMM-Newton observations of a stellar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, S.; Favata, F.; Micela, G.; Sciortino, S.; Maggio, A.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.; Robrade, J.; Mittag, M.

2017-09-01

Context. The modulation of the activity level of solar-like stars is commonly revealed by cyclic variations in their chromospheric indicators, such as the Ca II H&K S-index, similarly to what is observed in our Sun. However, while the variation of solar activity is also reflected in the cyclical modulation of its coronal X-ray emission, similar behavior has only been discovered in a few stars other than the Sun. Aims: The data set of the long-term XMM-Newton monitoring program of HD 81809 is analyzed to study its X-ray cycle, investigate if the latter is related to the chromospheric cycle, infer the structure of the corona of HD 81809, and explore if the coronal activity of HD 81809 can be ascribed to phenomena similar to solar activity and, therefore, considered an extension of the solar case. Methods: We analyzed the observations of HD 81809 performed with XMM-Newton with a regular cadence of six months from 2001 to 2016, which represents one of the longest available observational baseline ( 15 yr) for a solar-like star with a well-studied chromospheric cycle (with a period of 8 yr). We investigated the modulation of coronal luminosity and temperature and its relation with the chromospheric cycle. We interpreted the data in terms of a mixture of solar-like coronal regions, adopting a method originally proposed to study the Sun as an X-ray star. Results: The observations show a well-defined regular cyclic modulation of the X-ray luminosity that reflects the activity level of HD 81809. The data covers approximately two cycles of coronal activity; the modulation has an amplitude of a factor of 5 (excluding evident flares, as in the June 2002 observation) and a period of 7.3 ± 1.5 yr, which is consistent with that of the chromospheric cycle. We demonstrate that the corona of HD 81809 can be interpreted as an extension of the solar case and can be modeled with a mixture of solar-like coronal regions along the whole cycle. The activity level is mainly determined by varying coverage of very bright active regions, similar to cores of active regions observed in the Sun. Evidence of unresolved significant flaring activity is present especially in the proximity of cycle maxima.

42 years of continuous observations of the Solar 1 diameter from 1974 to 2015 - What do they forecast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humberto Andrei, Alexandre; Penna, Jucira; Boscardin, Sergio; Papa, Andres R. R.; Garcia, Marcos Antonio; Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-07-01

Several research groups in the world developed observational programs for the Sun in order to measure its apparent diameter over time with dedicated instruments, called solar astrolabes, since 1974. Their data have been gathered in several observing stations connected in the R2S3 (Réseau de Suivi au Sol du Rayon Solaire) network and through reciprocal visits and exchanges: Nice/Calern Observatoire/France, Rio de Janeiro Observatório Nacional/Brazil, Observatório de São Paulo IAGUSP/Brazil, Observatório Abrahão de Moraes IAGUSP/Brazil, Antalya Observatory/Turkey, San Fernando/Spain. Since all the optics and data treatment of the solar astrolabes was the same, from the oldest, with a single fixed objective prism, to the newest, with an angle variable objective prism and digital image acquisition, their results could be put together. Each instrument had its own density filter with a prismatic effect responsible for a particular shift. Thus, identical data gathering and just a different prismatic shift, enabled to reconcile all those series by using the common stretches and derive a single additive constant to place each one onto a common average. By doing so, although the value itself of the ground observed solar diameter is lost, its variations are determined over 35 years. On the combined series of the ground observed solar diameter a modulation with the 11 years main solar cycle is evident. However when such modulation is removed, both from the solar diameter compound series and from the solar activity series (as given by the sunspots count), a very strong anticorrelation is revealed. This suggested a larger diameter for the forthcoming cycles. This was very well verified for solar cycle 23, and correctly forecasted for cycle 24,in a behavior similar to that on the Minima of Dalton and Maunder. The ground monitoring keeps being routinely followed at Observatório Nacional in Rio de Janeiro, now using the Solar Heliometer, specially built to this end . The Heliometer has the same focal length and aperture of the earlier solar astrolabes, and the diameter determination uses the same physical and mathematical definition of the solar limb. Therefore the same robust, no-hypothesis, simple combination by an adding constant, can be used to include the Heliometer measurements along the previous long, continuous series. As a result the series of measurements of the variation of the solar diameter reaches 42 years, and covers also the solar cycle 24. In this paper we review all the individual series chief elements, as well as the calculation and values of the adding constants. We show the earlier comparison that lead to an anticorrelation at 0.867 to the solar activity record, when the 11 years modulation is expurgate, and exhibits an impressively accurate description of cycle 23. On the strength of such successful analysis we employ the new longer series to discuss the current solar cycle 24 and forecast for the following solar cycle 25. We thus advocate in favor of continued and continuous ground measurements of the solar diameter, on the usefulness of making these results available to the scientific community at large, and on the matter-of-fact, real variations of the solar diameter on long term time periods and/or local places on the Sun, in this case possibly associated to major magnetism driven solar transients.

Solar-Terrestrial Coupling Evidenced by Periodic Behavior in Geomagnetic Indexes and the Infrared Energy Budget of the Thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Martin G.; Martin-Torres, F. Javier; Mertens, Christopher J.; Marshall, B. Thomas; Thompson, R. Earl; Kozyra, Janet U.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Gordley, Larry L.; Russell, James M.; Woods, Thomas

2008-01-01

We examine time series of the daily global power (W) radiated by carbon dioxide (at 15 microns) and by nitric oxide (at 5.3 microns) from the Earth s thermosphere between 100 km and 200 km altitude. Also examined is a time series of the daily absorbed solar ultraviolet power in the same altitude region in the wavelength span 0 to 175 nm. The infrared data are derived from the SABER instrument and the solar data are derived from the SEE instrument, both on the NASA TIMED satellite. The time series cover nearly 5 years from 2002 through 2006. The infrared and solar time series exhibit a decrease in radiated and absorbed power consistent with the declining phase of the current 11-year solar cycle. The infrared time series also exhibits high frequency variations that are not evident in the solar power time series. Spectral analysis shows a statistically significant 9-day periodicity in the infrared data but not in the solar data. A very strong 9-day periodicity is also found to exist in the time series of daily A(sub p) and K(sub p) geomagnetic indexes. These 9-day periodicities are linked to the recurrence of coronal holes on the Sun. These results demonstrate a direct coupling between the upper atmosphere of the Sun and the infrared energy budget of the thermosphere.

Ionospheric Caustics in Solar Radio Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koval, A.; Chen, Y.; Stanislavsky, A.

2016-12-01

The Earth ionosphere possesses by natural focusing and defocusing effects on radio waves due to presence of variable ionospheric irregularities which could act like convergent and divergent lenses on incident radiation. In particular, the focusing of emission from the Sun was firstly detected on the Nançay Decameter Array dynamic spectra in the 1980s. On time-frequency spectrograms the intensity variations form specific structures different from well-known solar radio bursts and clearly distinguishing on a background of solar radiation. Such structures have been identified as ionospheric caustics (ICs) and considered to be the result of radio waves refraction on medium scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs). Although nowadays the ICs are registered by different radio observatories due to augmentation of low-frequency radio telescopes, the most recent papers devoted to ICs in solar radio records date back to the 1980s. In this study, we revisit the ICs issue with some new results by conducting a statistical analysis of occurrence rate of ICs in solar dynamic spectra in meter-decameter wavelength range for long continuous period (15 years). The seasonal variations in ICs appearance have been found for the first time. Besides, we report the possible solar cycle dependence of ICs emergence. The radio waves propagation in the ionosphere comprising MSTIDs will be considered. The present research renews the subject of ICs in the low-frequency solar radio astronomy after about 35-year letup.

Testing the Sun-climate Connection with Paleoclimate Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.; Howard, Matthew K.

1990-01-01

If there is a significant sun-climate connection, it should be detectable in high-resolution paleoclimate records. Of particular interest is the last few thousand years, where we have both indices of solar variability (C-14 and Be-10) and climate variations (alpine glaciers, tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.). Although there are a few exceptions, statistical analyses of solar and climate records generally indicates a flickering relationship between the two -- sometimes it seems to be present, sometimes not. The most repeatable solar climate periods occur at approx. 120 and approx. 56 yrs, although there is also evidence for approx. 420 and approx. 200 yrs. power in some records. However, coherence between solar and climate spectra is usually low, and occurrence of solar spectra in climate records is sometimes dependent on choice of analysis program. These results suggest in general a relatively weak sun-climate link on time scales of decades to centuries. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies and with the observation that inferred climate fluctuations of 1.0 to 1.5 C on this time scale would require solar constant variations of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent. This change in forcing is almost an order of magnitude greater than observed changes over the last solar cycle and appears to be on the far-outer limit of acceptable changes for a Maunder Minimum-type event.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-01-01

We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.

Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J.

2010-04-01

We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle.

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

1994-01-01

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

2012-01-01

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin

2018-06-01

We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed.

Technology for Bayton-cycle powerplants using solar and nuclear energy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, R. E.

1986-01-01

Brayton cycle gas turbines have the potential to use either solar heat or nuclear reactors for generating from tens of kilowatts to tens of megawatts of power in space, all this from a single technology for the power generating system. Their development for solar energy dynamic power generation for the space station could be the first step in an evolution of such powerplants for a very wide range of applications. At the low power level of only 10 kWe, a power generating system has already demonstrated overall efficiency of 0.29 and operated 38 000 hr. Tests of improved components show that these components would raise that efficiency to 0.32, a value twice that demonstrated by any alternate concept. Because of this high efficiency, solar Brayton cycle power generators offer the potential to increase power per unit of solar collector area to levels exceeding four times that from photovoltaic powerplants using present technology for silicon solar cells. The technologies for solar mirrors and heat receivers are reviewed and assessed. This Brayton technology for solar powerplants is equally suitable for use with the nuclear reactors. The available long time creep data on the tantalum alloy ASTAR-811C show that such Brayton cycles can evolve to cycle peak temperatures of 1500 K (2240 F). And this same technology can be extended to generate 10 to 100 MW in space by exploiting existing technology for terrestrial gas turbines in the fields of both aircraft propulsion and stationary power generation.

Solar flares associated coronal mass ejection accompanied with DH type II radio burst in relation with interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic storms and cosmic ray intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Harish; Bhatt, Beena

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have selected 114 flare-CME events accompanied with Deca-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst chosen from 1996 to 2008 (i.e., solar cycle 23). Statistical analyses are performed to examine the relationship of flare-CME events accompanied with DH type II radio burst with Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF), Geomagnetic storms (GSs) and Cosmic Ray Intensity (CRI). The collected sample events are divided into two groups. In the first group, we considered 43 events which lie under the CME span and the second group consists of 71 events which are outside the CME span. Our analysis indicates that flare-CME accompanied with DH type II radio burst is inconsistent with CSHKP flare-CME model. We apply the Chree analysis by the superposed epoch method to both set of data to find the geo-effectiveness. We observed different fluctuations in IMF for arising and decay phase of solar cycle in both the cases. Maximum decrease in Dst during arising and decay phase of solar cycle is different for both the cases. It is noted that when flare lie outside the CME span CRI shows comparatively more variation than the flare lie under the CME span. Furthermore, we found that flare lying under the CME span is more geo effective than the flare outside of CME span. We noticed that the time leg between IMF Peak value and GSs, IMF and CRI is on average one day for both the cases. Also, the time leg between CRI and GSs is on average 0 to 1 day for both the cases. In case flare lie under the CME span we observed high correlation (0.64) between CRI and Dst whereas when flare lie outside the CME span a weak correlation (0.47) exists. Thus, flare position with respect to CME span play a key role for geo-effectiveness of CME.

Reconciling solar and stellar magnetic cycles with nonlinear dynamo simulations.

PubMed

Strugarek, A; Beaudoin, P; Charbonneau, P; Brun, A S; do Nascimento, J-D

2017-07-14

The magnetic fields of solar-type stars are observed to cycle over decadal periods-11 years in the case of the Sun. The fields originate in the turbulent convective layers of stars and have a complex dependency upon stellar rotation rate. We have performed a set of turbulent global simulations that exhibit magnetic cycles varying systematically with stellar rotation and luminosity. We find that the magnetic cycle period is inversely proportional to the Rossby number, which quantifies the influence of rotation on turbulent convection. The trend relies on a fundamentally nonlinear dynamo process and is compatible with the Sun's cycle and those of other solar-type stars. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

2014-01-01

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

2016-11-01

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.

2017-09-01

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.

Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2009-04-01

We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Jiang, Jie

2012-07-01

Solar irradiance is one of the important drivers of the Earth's global climate, but it has only been measured for the past 33 years. Its reconstructions are therefore crucial to study longer term variations relevant to climate timescales. Most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations have being the models that are based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these, which uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. To reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. The concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles is used to describe the secular change in the irradiance.

Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

2018-04-01

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

2009-01-01

Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong vs band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

First Ground-Based Infrared Solar Absorption Measurements of Free Tropospheric Methanol (CH3OH): Multidecade Infrared Time Series from Kitt Peak (31.9 deg N 111.6 deg W): Trend, Seasonal Cycle, and Comparison with Previous Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Chiou, Linda; Herbin, Herve

2009-01-01

Atmospheric CH3OH (methanol) free tropospheric (2.09-14-km altitude) time series spanning 22 years has been analyzed on the basis of high-spectral resolution infrared solar absorption spectra of the strong n8 band recorded from the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak (latitude 31.9degN, 111.6degW, 2.09-km altitude) with a 1-m Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The measurements span October 1981 to December 2003 and are the first long time series of CH3OH measurements obtained from the ground. The results were analyzed with SFIT2 version 3.93 and show a factor of three variations with season, a maximum at the beginning of July, a winter minimum, and no statistically significant long-term trend over the measurement time span.

Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.

1990-01-01

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

Search for Trends and Periodicities in Inter-hemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

2018-02-01

Understanding the role of coupled solar and internal ocean dynamics on hemispheric climate variability is critical to climate modelling. We have analysed here 165 year long annual northern hemispheric (NH) and southern hemispheric (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data employing spectral and statistical techniques to identify the imprints of solar and ocean-atmospheric processes, if any. We reconstructed the eigen modes of NH-SST and SH-SST to reveal non-linear oscillations superimposed on the monotonic trend. Our analysis reveals that the first eigen mode of NH-SST and SH-SST representing long-term trend of SST variability accounts for 15-23% variance. Interestingly, these components are matching with first eigen mode (99% variance) of the total solar irradiance (TSI) suggesting possible impact of solar activity on long-term SST variation. Furthermore, spectral analysis of SSA reconstructed signal revealed statistically significant periodicities of 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, 10 ± 1, 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years in both NH-SST and SH-SST data. The major harmonics centred at 63 ± 5, 22 ± 2, and 10 ± 1 years are similar to solar periodicities and hence may represent solar forcing, while the components peaking at around 7.6, 6.3, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.2 years apparently falls in the frequency bands of El-Nino-Southern Oscillations linked to the oceanic internal processes. Our analyses also suggest evidence for the amplitude modulation of 9-11 and 21-22 year solar cycles, respectively, by 104 and 163 years in northern and southern hemispheric SST data. The absence of the above periodic oscillations in CO2 fails to suggest its role on observed inter-hemispheric SST difference. The cross-plot analysis also revealed strong influence of solar activity on linear trend of NH- and SH-SST in addition to small contribution from CO2. Our study concludes that (1) the long-term trends in northern and southern hemispheric SST variability show considerable synchronicity with cyclic warming and cooling phases and (2) the difference in cyclic forcing and non-linear modulations stemming from solar variability as a possible source of hemispheric SST differences.

Solar cycle variation of Mars exospheric temperatures: Critical review of available dayside measurements and recent model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, Stephen; Huestis, David

The responses of the Martian dayside thermosphere to solar flux variations (on both solar rotation and solar cycle timescales) have been the subject of considerable debate and study for many years. Available datasets include: Mariner 6,7,9 (UVS dayglow), Viking Lander 1-2 (UAMS densities upon descent), several aerobraking campaigns (MGS, Odyssey, MRO densities), and Mars Express (SPICAM dayglow). Radio Science derived plasma scale heights near the ionospheric peak can be used to derive neutral temperatures in this region (only); such values are not applicable to exobase heights (e.g. Forbes et al. 2008; Bougher et al. 2009). Recently, densities and temperatures derived from precise orbit determination of the MGS spacecraft (1999-2005) have been used to establish the responses of Mars' exosphere to long-term solar flux variations (Forbes et al., 2008). From this multi-year dataset, dayside exospheric temperatures weighted toward moderate southern latitudes are found to change by about 120 K over the solar cycle. However, the applicability of these drag derived exospheric temperatures to near solar minimum conditions is suspect (e.g Bruinsma and Lemoine, 2002). Finally, re-evaluation of production mechanisms for UV dayglow emissions implies revised values for exospheric temperatures (e.g. Simon et al., 2009; Huestis et al. 2010). Several processes are known to influence Mars' exospheric temperatures and their variability (Bougher et al., 1999; 2000; 2009). Solar EUV heating and its variations with solar fluxes received at Mars, CO2 15-micron cooling, molecular thermal conduction, and hydrodynamic heating/cooling associated with global dynamics all contribute to regulate dayside thermo-spheric temperatures. Poorly measured dayside atomic oxygen abundances render CO2 cooling rates uncertain at the present time. However, global thermospheric circulation models can be exercised for conditions spanning the solar cycle and Mars seasons to address the relative roles of these processes in driving observed variations in dayside exospheric temperatures. Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) simulations and resulting exo-spheric temperatures will be presented and compared with assimilated temperatures collected from all these available measurements over the solar cycle. It is important to match measure-ments at dayside local times and latitudes for specific seasons with corresponding MTGCM simulated outputs. Calculated local heat budgets and their variations illustrate the changes required to reproduce solar cycle variations in exospheric temperatures. The ability to success-fully predict solar cycle responses of the Martian upper atmosphere is important for simulations of present-day Mars volatile escape rates.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. J.; Harrison, R. G.; Owens, M. J.; Lockwood, M.; Barnard, L.

2014-05-01

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream’s source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (˜1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (˜6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

1992-01-01

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, N. B.; Qu, Z. N., E-mail: znqu@ynao.ac.cn

The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) analysis is utilized to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) observed at the Wilcox Solar Observatory of Stanford University from 1975 to 2014, and then we analyze the periods of these IMFs as well as the relation of IMFs (SMMF) with some solar activity indices. The two special rotation cycles of 26.6 and 28.5 days should be derived from different magnetic flux elements in the SMMF. The rotation cycle of the weak magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 26.6 days, while the rotation cycle of themore » strong magnetic flux element in the SMMF is 28.5 days. The two rotation periods of the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field near the ecliptic plane are essentially related to weak and strong magnetic flux elements in the SMMF, respectively. The rotation cycle of weak magnetic flux in the SMMF did not vary over the last 40 years because the weak magnetic flux element derived from the weak magnetic activity on the full disk is not influenced by latitudinal migration. Neither the internal rotation of the Sun nor the solar magnetic activity on the disk (including the solar polar fields) causes the annual variation of SMMF. The variation of SMMF at timescales of a solar cycle is more related to weak magnetic activity on the full solar disk.« less

Solar Variability from 240 to 1750 nm in Terms of Faculae Brightening and Sunspot Darkening from SCIAMACHY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-08-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variationsmore » above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less

Solar Energetic Particle Composition over Two Solar Cycles as Observed by the Ulysses/HISCALE and ACE/EPAM Pulse Height Analyzers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions.

On the intrinsic timescales of temporal variability in measurements of the surface solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bengulescu, Marc; Blanc, Philippe; Wald, Lucien

2018-01-01

This study is concerned with the intrinsic temporal scales of the variability in the surface solar irradiance (SSI). The data consist of decennial time series of daily means of the SSI obtained from high-quality measurements of the broadband solar radiation impinging on a horizontal plane at ground level, issued from different Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) ground stations around the world. First, embedded oscillations sorted in terms of increasing timescales of the data are extracted by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Next, Hilbert spectral analysis is applied to obtain an amplitude-modulation-frequency-modulation (AM-FM) representation of the data. The time-varying nature of the characteristic timescales of variability, along with the variations in the signal intensity, are thus revealed. A novel, adaptive null hypothesis based on the general statistical characteristics of noise is employed in order to discriminate between the different features of the data, those that have a deterministic origin and those being realizations of various stochastic processes. The data have a significant spectral peak corresponding to the yearly variability cycle and feature quasi-stochastic high-frequency variability components, irrespective of the geographical location or of the local climate. Moreover, the amplitude of this latter feature is shown to be modulated by variations in the yearly cycle, which is indicative of nonlinear multiplicative cross-scale couplings. The study has possible implications on the modeling and the forecast of the surface solar radiation, by clearly discriminating the deterministic from the quasi-stochastic character of the data, at different local timescales.

GONG Catalog of Solar Filament Oscillations Near Solar Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, M.; Karpen, J.; Ballester, J. L.; Muglach, K.; Terradas, J.; Kucera, T.; Gilbert, H.

2018-06-01

We have cataloged 196 filament oscillations from the Global Oscillation Network Group Hα network data during several months near the maximum of solar cycle 24 (2014 January–June). Selected examples from the catalog are described in detail, along with our statistical analyses of all events. Oscillations were classified according to their velocity amplitude: 106 small-amplitude oscillations (SAOs), with velocities <10 {km} {{{s}}}-1, and 90 large-amplitude oscillations (LAOs), with velocities >10 {km} {{{s}}}-1. Both SAOs and LAOs are common, with one event of each class every two days on the visible side of the Sun. For nearly half of the events, we identified their apparent trigger. The period distribution has a mean value of 58 ± 15 minutes for both types of oscillations. The distribution of the damping time per period peaks at τ/P = 1.75 and 1.25 for SAOs and LAOs, respectively. We confirmed that LAO damping rates depend nonlinearly on the oscillation velocity. The angle between the direction of motion and the filament spine has a distribution centered at 27° for all filament types. This angle agrees with the observed direction of filament-channel magnetic fields, indicating that most of the cataloged events are longitudinal (i.e., undergo field-aligned motions). We applied seismology to determine the average radius of curvature in the magnetic dips, R ≈ 89 Mm, and the average minimum magnetic field strength, B ≈ 16 G. The catalog is available to the community online and is intended to be expanded to cover at least 1 solar cycle.

Reduction of Life Cycle CO2 Emission in Public Welfare Facilities Equipped with PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki

The reduction effect of life cycle CO2 emission is examined in case of introducing a PV/solar heat/cogeneration system into public welfare facilities(hotel and hospital). Life cycle CO2 emission is calculated as the sum of that when operating and that when manufacturing equipments. The system is operated with the dynamic programming method, into which hourly data of electric and heat loads, solar insolation, and atmospheric temperature during a year are input. The proposed system is compared with a conventional system and a cogeneration system. The life cycle CO2 emission of the PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is lower than that of the conventional system by 20% in hotel and by 14% in hospital.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Solar causes of strong geomagnetic disturbances during the period 1996—2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejda, Pavel; Bochníček, Josef; Valach, Fridrich; Revallo, Miloš

2017-04-01

The purpose of this research is to assess the contribution of CMEs and CIRs to geomagnetic activity during the period 1996—2013, covering the 23rd solar cycle, the solar minimum between the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles as well as the ascending part of the current 24th solar cycle. Both CMEs and CIRs are capable of driving significant space weather effects on the Earth. Current study is not primarily aimed at construction of prediction models but can contribute to this topic by answering two principal questions: (1) what is the contribution of CME and CIR type solar events to various levels of geomagnetic disturbances and how it varies during the solar cycle (2) how does the successive emergence of CME and CIR events influence the geomagnetic response. Sometimes it can be difficult to assign the response to a particular event properly, especially in the case of several successive events. We noticed that the CIRs appeared to play important role also in years when strongly geoeffective CMEs occurred. An interesting finding, which we have revealed on this subject, concerned the year 2009; then the extremely low geomagnetic activity was probably caused by very slow solar wind from coronal holes along with the rare occurrences of CIRs.

Halo Coronal Mass Ejections during Solar Cycle 24: reconstruction of the global scenario and geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolini, Camilla; Messerotti, Mauro; Poedts, Stefaan; Rodriguez, Luciano

2018-02-01

In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model. Simulation results at Earth are compared with in-situ observations at L1. By applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and a solar wind-Kp index coupling function, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity level, and compare them with global data records. The analysis indicates that 82% of the CMEs arrived at Earth in the next 4 days. Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous orbits and triggered a geomagnetic storm. Complex sunspot-rich active regions associated with energetic flares result the most favourable configurations from which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related SEP events shows that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective. Moreover, the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth geoeffectiveness prediction scheme - based on 3D simulations and solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions - to a statistical set of potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are in good agreement with geomagnetic activity data records, although further studies performing a fine-tuning of such scheme are needed.

Determining the Dimensions of the Heliosphere from the Time-Correlation of IBEX ENA Observations with Variations in the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisenfeld, D. B.; Bzowski, M.; Funsten, H. O.; Janzen, P. H.; Kubiak, M. A.; McComas, D. J.; Schwadron, N.; Sokol, J. M.

2017-12-01

The IBEX mission has shown that variations in the ENA flux from the outer heliosphere are associated with the solar cycle. In particular, there is a good correlation between the dynamic pressure of the outbound solar wind and variations in the observed IBEX ENA flux (McComas et al, 2017; Reisenfeld et al., 2016). There is, of course, a time difference between observations of the outbound SW and the heliospheric ENAs with which they correlate, ranging from approximately two to four years, depending on ENA energy and look direction. In this study, we use this time difference as a means of "sounding" the heliosheath, that is, finding the average distance to the ENA source region in a particular direction. We use data from the first seven years of the IBEX mission. As each point in the sky is sampled once every six months, this gives us a time series of 14 points per look direction on which to time correlate. Fluxes are transformed from the spacecraft frame into a heliospheric inertial frame to remove the effects of spacecraft/Earth motion. Fluxes are also corrected for ENA extinction due to charge exchange. To improve statistics, we divide the sky into "macropixels" spanning 30 degrees in longitude and varying ranges of latitude to maintain comparable counting statistics per pixel. In calculating the response time, we account for the varying speed of the outbound solar wind by using a time and latitude dependent set of solar wind speeds derived from interplanetary scintillation data (Sokol et al. 2015). Consistent with heliospheric models, we determine the shortest distance to the heliopause is in the nose direction, with a flaring toward the flanks and poles.

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

2013-01-01

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M.

Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less

Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William

2016-05-01

In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications.

The radial distribution of cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, F. B.; Fujii, Z.; Heikkila, B.; Lal, N.

2003-08-01

To obtain a more detailed profile of the radial distribution of galactic (GCRs) and anomalous (ACRs) cosmic rays, a unique time in the 11-year solar activity cycle has been selected - that of solar maximum. At this time of minimum cosmic ray intensity a simple, straight-forward normalization technique has been found that allows the cosmic ray data from IMP 8, Pioneer 10 (P-10) and Voyagers 1 and 2 (V1, V2) to be combined for the solar maxima of cycles 21, 22 and 23. This combined distribution reveals a functional form of the radial gradient that varies as G 0/r with G 0 being constant and relatively small in the inner heliosphere. After a transition region between ˜10 and 20 AU, G 0 increases to a much larger value that remains constant between ˜25 and 82 AU. This implies that at solar maximum the changes that produce the 11-year modulation cycle are mainly occurring in the outer heliosphere between ˜15 AU and the termination shock. These observations are not inconsistent with the concept that Global Merged Interaction. regions (GMIRs) are the principal agent of modulation between solar minimum and solar maximum. There does not appear to be a significant change in the amount of heliosheath modulation occurring between the 1997 solar minimum and the cycle 23 solar maximum.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

Cross correlation and time-lag between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra-Porta, D.

2018-07-01

In the present paper a systematic study is carried out to validate the similarity or co-variability between daily terrestrial cosmic-ray intensity and three parameters of the solar corona evolution, i.e., the number of sunspots and flare index observed in the solar corona and the Ap index for regular magnetic field variations caused by regular solar radiation changes. The study is made for a period including three solar cycles starting with cycle 21 (year 1976) and ending on cycle 23 (year 2008). A cross-correlation analysis was used to establish patterns and dependence of the variables. This study focused on the time lag calculation for these variables and found a maximum of negative correlation over CC1≈ 0.85, CC2≈ 0.75 and CC3≈ 0.63 with an estimation of 181, 156 and 2 days of deviation between maximum/minimum of peaks for the intensity of cosmic rays related with sunspot number, flare index and Ap index regression, respectively.

Solar and terrestrial physics. [effects of solar activities on earth environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The effects of solar radiation on the near space and biomental earth, the upper atmosphere, and the magnetosphere are discussed. Data obtained from the OSO satellites pertaining to the solar cycle variation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation are analyzed. The effects of solar cycle variation of the characteristics of the solar wind are examined. The fluid mechanics of shock waves and the specific relationship to the characteristics of solar shock waves are investigated. The solar and corpuscular heating of the upper atmosphere is reported based on the findings of the AEROS and NATE experiments. Seasonal variations of the upper atmosphere composition are plotted based on OGO-6 mass spectrometer data.

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2010-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Influence of interplanetary solar wind sector polarity on the ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

liu, jing

2014-05-01

Knowledge of solar sector polarity effects on the ionosphere may provide some clues in understanding of the ionospheric day-to-day variability. A solar-terrestrial connection ranging from solar sector boundary (SB) crossings, geomagnetic disturbance and ionospheric perturbations has been demonstrated. The increases in interplanetary solar wind speed within three days are seen after SB crossings, while the decreases in solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetic field intensity immediately after SB crossings are confirmed by the superposed epoch analysis results. Furthermore, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turns from northward to southward in March equinox and June solstice as the Earth passes from a solar sector of outward to inward directed magnetic fields, whereas the reverse situation occurs for the transition from toward to away sectors. The F2 region critical frequency (foF2) covering about four solar cycles and total electron content (TEC) during 1998-2011 are utilized to extract the related information, revealing that they are not modified significantly and vary within the range of 15% on average. The responses of the ionospheric TEC to SB crossings exhibit complex temporal and spatial variations and have strong dependencies on season, latitude, and solar cycle. This effect is more appreciable in equinoctial months than in solstitial months, which is mainly caused by larger southward Bz components in equinox. In September equinox, latitudinal profile of relative variations of foF2 at noon is featured by depressions at high latitudes and enhancements in low-equatorial latitudes during IMF away sectors. The negative phase of foF2 is delayed at solar minimum relative to it during other parts of solar cycle, which might be associated with the difference in longevity of major interplanetary solar wind drivers perturbing the Earth's environment in different phases of solar cycle.

Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.

2016-03-25

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

PubMed Central

Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Popova, E.; Zharkov, S. I.

2015-01-01

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. PMID:26511513

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Robin; Davenport, Roger; Talbot, Jan

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle formore » reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are proposed for future activities. Electrolysis membranes that permit higher temperatures and lower voltages are attainable. The oxygen half cycle will need further development and improvement.« less

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David

2010-01-01

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

An investigation of the solar cycle response of odd-nitrogen in the thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, David W.; Solomon, Stanley C.

1992-01-01

This annual report covers the first year of funding for the study of the solar cycle variations of odd-nitrogen (N((sup 2)D), N((sup 4)S), NO) in the Earth's thermosphere. The study uses the extensive data base generated by the Atmosphere Explorer (AE) satellites, and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer Satellite. The AE data are being used, for the first time, to define the solar variability effect on the odd-nitrogen species through analysis of the emissions at 520 nano-m from N((sup 2)D) and the emission from O(+)((sup 2)P). Additional AE neutral and ion density data are used to help define and quantify the physical processes controlling the variations. The results from the airglow study will be used in the next two years of this study to explain the solar cycle changes in NO measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer.

Model of Energy Spectrum Parameters of Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.-S.; Qin, G.

2018-01-01

Mewaldt et al. (2012) fitted the observations of the ground level enhancement (GLE) events during solar cycle 23 to the double power law equation to obtain the four spectral parameters, the normalization constant C, low-energy power law slope γ1, high-energy power law slope γ2, and break energy E0. There are 16 GLEs from which we select 13 for study by excluding some events with complicated situation. We analyze the four parameters with conditions of the corresponding solar events. According to solar event conditions, we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary shocks and another one without strong acceleration. By fitting the four parameters with solar event conditions we obtain models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. Therefore, we establish a model of energy spectrum of solar cycle 23 GLEs, which may be used in prediction in the future.

Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Mcpeters, Richard D.; Meade, Paul E.

1990-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles (1963-1984), by examining changes in the production of odd nitrogen, NO(y), and ozone and using a proton energy degradation scheme to derive ion pair production rates. These calculations show that NO(y) is not substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs; significant SPEs last only 1-5 days, tend to occur near solar maximum, and are typically months to years apart, preventing a build up of SPE-produced NO(y). Fractional ozone changes are even smaller than the fractional NO(y) changes and are significant only for the August 1972 SPE. Ozone, like NO(y), returns to its ambient levels on time scales of several months to a year.

Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.

2016-10-01

The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Solar Surface Velocity in the Large Scale estimated by Magnetic Element Tracking Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiyama, M.; Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Machida, S.

2017-12-01

The 11years variation in the solar activity is one of the important sources of decadal variation in the solar-terrestrial environment. Therefore, predicting the solar cycle activity is crucial for the space weather. To build the prediction schemes for the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Recently, the relationship between polar magnetic field at the solar minimum and next solar cycle activity is intensively discussed. Nowadays, many people believe that the polar magnetic field at the solar minimum is one of the best predictor for the next solar cycle. To estimate polar magnetic field, Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model have been often used. On the other hand, SFT model needs several parameters, for example Meridional circulation, differential rotation, turbulent diffusion etc.. So far, those parameters have not been fully understood, and their uncertainties may affect the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we try to discuss the parameters which are used in SFT model. We focus on two kinds of the solar surface motions, Differential rotation and Meridional circulation. First, we have developed Magnetic Element Tracking (MET) module, which is able to obtain the surface velocity by using the magnetic field data. We have used SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI for the magnetic field data. By using MET, we study the solar surface motion over 2 cycle (nearly 24 years), and we found that the velocity variation is related to the active region belt. This result is consistent with [Hathaway et al., 2011]. Further, we apply our module to the Hinode/SOT data which spatial resolution is high. Because of its high resolution, we can discuss the surface motion close to the pole which has not been discussed enough. Further, we discuss the relationship between the surface motion and the magnetic field strength and the location of longitude.

Influence of the Solar Cycle on Turbulence Properties and Cosmic-Ray Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.-L.; Adhikari, L.; Zank, G. P.; Hu, Q.; Feng, X. S.

2018-04-01

The solar cycle dependence of various turbulence quantities and cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion coefficients is investigated by using OMNI 1 minute resolution data over 22 years. We employ Elsässer variables z ± to calculate the magnetic field turbulence energy and correlation lengths for both the inwardly and outwardly directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We present the temporal evolution of both large-scale solar wind (SW) plasma variables and small-scale magnetic fluctuations. Based on these observed quantities, we study the influence of solar activity on CR parallel and perpendicular diffusion using quasi-linear theory and nonlinear guiding center theory, respectively. We also evaluate the radial evolution of the CR diffusion coefficients by using the boundary conditions for different solar activity levels. We find that in the ecliptic plane at 1 au (1), the large-scale SW temperature T, velocity V sw, Alfvén speed V A , and IMF magnitude B 0 are positively related to solar activity; (2) the fluctuating magnetic energy density < {{z}+/- }2> , residual energy E D , and corresponding correlation functions all have an obvious solar cycle dependence. The residual energy E D is always negative, which indicates that the energy in magnetic fluctuations is larger than the energy in kinetic fluctuations, especially at solar maximum; (3) the correlation length λ for magnetic fluctuations does not show significant solar cycle variation; (4) the temporally varying shear source of turbulence, which is most important in the inner heliosphere, depends on the solar cycle; (5) small-scale fluctuations may not depend on the direction of the background magnetic field; and (6) high levels of SW fluctuations will increase CR perpendicular diffusion and decrease CR parallel diffusion, but this trend can be masked if the background IMF changes in concert with turbulence in response to solar activity. These results provide quantitative inputs for both turbulence transport models and CR diffusion models, and also provide valuable insight into the long-term modulation of CRs in the heliosphere.

Solar cycle dependence of the heliospheric shape deduced from a global MHD simulation of the interaction process between a nonuniform time-dependent solar wind and the local interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.

1999-06-01

The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.

Impacts of Wind and Solar on Fossil-Fueled Generators: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Kumar, N.

2012-08-01

High penetrations of wind and solar power will impact the operations of the remaining generators on the power system. Regional integration studies have shown that wind and solar may cause fossil-fueled generators to cycle on and off and ramp down to part load more frequently and potentially more rapidly. Increased cycling, deeper load following, and rapid ramping may result in wear-and-tear impacts on fossil-fueled generators that lead to increased capital and maintenance costs, increased equivalent forced outage rates, and degraded performance over time. Heat rates and emissions from fossil-fueled generators may be higher during cycling and ramping than during steady-statemore » operation. Many wind and solar integration studies have not taken these increased cost and emissions impacts into account because data have not been available. This analysis considers the cost and emissions impacts of cycling and ramping of fossil-fueled generation to refine assessments of wind and solar impacts on the power system.« less

Dynamo generation of magnetic fields in three-dimensional space - Solar cycle main flux tube formation and reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, H.

1983-08-01

The case of the solar magnetic cycle is investigated as a prototype of the dynamo processes involved in the generation of magnetic fields in astrophysics. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are solved using a numerical method with a prescribed velocity field in order follow the movement and deformation. It is shown that a simple combination of differential rotation and global convection, given by a linear analysis of fluid dynamics in a rotating sphere, can perpetually create and reverse great magnetic flux tubes encircling the sun. These main flux tubes of the solar cycle are the progenitors of small-scale flux ropes of the solar activity. These findings indicate that magnetic fields can be generated by fluid motions and that MHD equations have a new type of oscillatory solution. It is shown that the solar cycle can be identified with one of these oscillatory solutions. It is proposed that the formation of magnetic flux tubes by streaming plasma flows is a universal mechanism of flux tube formation in astrophysics.

Effects of plasma drag on low Earth orbiting satellites due to solar forcing induced perturbations and heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nwankwo, Victor U. J.; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Weigel, Robert S.

2015-07-01

The upper atmosphere changes significantly in temperature, density and composition as a result of solar cycle variations, which causes severe storms and flares, and increases in the amount of absorbed solar radiation from solar energetic events. Satellite orbits are consequently affected by this process, especially those in low Earth orbit (LEO). In this paper, we present a model of atmospheric drag effects on the trajectory of two hypothetical LEO satellites of different ballistic coefficients, initially injected at h = 450 km. We investigate long-term trends of atmospheric drag on LEO satellites due to solar forcing induced atmospheric perturbations and heating at different phases of the solar cycle, and during short intervals of strong geomagnetic disturbances or magnetic storms. We show dependence of orbital decay on the severity of both solar cycle and phase and the extent of geomagnetic perturbations. The result of the model compares well with observed decay profile of some existing LEO satellites and provide a justification of the theoretical considerations used here.

Solar signals detected within neutral atmospheric and ionospheric parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koucka Knizova, Petra; Georgieva, Katya; Mosna, Zbysek; Kozubek, Michal; Kouba, Daniel; Kirov, Boian; Potuzníkova, Katerina; Boska, Josef

2018-06-01

We have analyzed time series of solar data together with the atmospheric and ionospheric measurements for solar cycles 19 till 23 according to particular data availability. For the analyses we have used long term data with 1-day sampling. By mean of Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) we have found common spectral domains within solar and atmospheric and ionospheric time series. Further we have identified terms when particular pairs of signals show high coherence applying Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC). Despite wide oscillation ranges detected in particular time series CWT spectra we found only limited domains with high coherence by mean of WTC. Wavelet Transform Coherence reveals significant high power domains with stable phase difference for periods 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years and 3-4 years between pairs of solar data and atmospheric and ionospheric data. The occurence of the detected domains vary significantly during particular solar cycle (SC) and from cycle to the following one. It indicates the changing solar forcing and/or atmospheric sensitivity with time.

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2004-01-01

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael, A. T.; Opher, M.; Provornikova, E.

In the heliosheath (HS), Voyager 2 has observed a flow with constant radial velocity and magnetic flux conservation. Voyager 1, however, has observed a decrease in the flow’s radial velocity and an order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux. We investigate the role of the 11 yr solar cycle variation of the magnetic field strength on the magnetic flux within the HS using a global 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the heliosphere. We use time and latitude-dependent solar wind velocity and density inferred from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/SWAN and interplanetary scintillations data and implemented solar cycle variations of the magnetic fieldmore » derived from 27 day averages of the field magnitude average of the magnetic field at 1 AU from the OMNI database. With the inclusion of the solar cycle time-dependent magnetic field intensity, the model matches the observed intensity of the magnetic field in the HS along both Voyager 1 and 2. This is a significant improvement from the same model without magnetic field solar cycle variations, which was over a factor of two larger. The model accurately predicts the radial velocity observed by Voyager 2; however, the model predicts a flow speed ∼100 km s{sup −1} larger than that derived from LECP measurements at Voyager 1. In the model, magnetic flux is conserved along both Voyager trajectories, contrary to observations. This implies that the solar cycle variations in solar wind magnetic field observed at 1 AU does not cause the order of magnitude decrease in magnetic flux observed in the Voyager 1 data.« less

An Empirical Orthogonal Function Reanalysis of the Northern Polar External and Induced Magnetic Field During Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2018-01-01

We apply the method of data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to ground-based magnetic vector data from the SuperMAG archive to produce a series of month length reanalyses of the surface external and induced magnetic field (SEIMF) in 110,000 km2 equal-area bins over the entire northern polar region at 5 min cadence over solar cycle 23, from 1997.0 to 2009.0. Each EOF reanalysis also decomposes the measured SEIMF variation into a hierarchy of spatiotemporal patterns which are ordered by their contribution to the monthly magnetic field variance. We find that the leading EOF patterns can each be (subjectively) interpreted as well-known SEIMF systems or their equivalent current systems. The relationship of the equivalent currents to the true current flow is not investigated. We track the leading SEIMF or equivalent current systems of similar type by intermonthly spatial correlation and apply graph theory to (objectively) group their appearance and relative importance throughout a solar cycle, revealing seasonal and solar cycle variation. In this way, we identify the spatiotemporal patterns that maximally contribute to SEIMF variability over a solar cycle. We propose this combination of EOF and graph theory as a powerful method for objectively defining and investigating the structure and variability of the SEIMF or their equivalent ionospheric currents for use in both geomagnetism and space weather applications. It is demonstrated here on solar cycle 23 but is extendable to any epoch with sufficient data coverage.

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cliver, E. W.; Cane, H. V.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Relationships between solar activity and climate change. [sunspot cycle effects on lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, W. O.

1974-01-01

Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Flares, Fears, and Forecasts: Public Misconceptions About the Sunspot Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, K.

2012-06-01

Among the disaster scenarios perpetrated by 2012 apocalypse aficionados is the destruction of humankind due to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These scenarios reflect common misconceptions regarding the solar cycle. This paper (based on an annual meeting poster) sheds light on those misconceptions and how the AAVSO Solar Section can address them.

NASA welding assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofel, E. J.

1984-01-01

A long duration test was conducted for comparing various methods of attaching electrical interconnects to solar cells for near Earth orbit spacecraft. Representative solar array modules were thermally cycled for 36,000 cycles between -80 and +80 C. The environmental stress of more than 6 years on a near Earth spacecraft as it cycles in and out of the earth's shadow was simulated. Evaluations of the integrity of these modules were made by visual and by electrical examinations before starting the cycling and then at periodic intervals during the cycling tests. Modules included examples of parallel gap and of ultrasonic welding, as well as soldering. The materials and fabrication processes are state of the art, suitable for forming large solar arrays of spacecraft quality. The modules survived this extensive cycling without detectable degradation in their ability to generate power under sunlight illumination.

A study of multi-GNSS ionospheric scintillation and cycle-slip over Hong Kong region for moderate solar flux conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Xiaomin; Liu, Zhizhao; Lou, Yidong; Gu, Shengfeng; Chen, Biyan

2017-09-01

This study presents the characteristics of Multiple Global Navigation Satellite System (Multi-GNSS) ionospheric scintillation and cycle-slip occurrence through the analysis of Multi-GNSS data collected by a newly installed receiver located at Sha Tin of Hong Kong from 6 October 2015 to 31 December 2016. This period of time was under a moderate solar activity condition with average sunspot number and F10.7 as 44 and 92, respectively. Considering the frequent occurrence of loss of lock in satellites measurements in the presence of ionospheric scintillation, a rate of geometry-free (ROGF) combination is proposed to take the time gap size between two data arcs into account in the cycle-slip detection. The results show that most ionospheric scintillation events and cycle-slips are observed from 20:00 LT to 0:00 LT. Under the strong scintillation (S4 > 0.6) conditions, it is found that the time series of wide-land (WL) ambiguity NWL and ROGF vary significantly and their range can reach more than 50 cycles and 0.1 m/s, respectively. However, the variations of the NWL and ROGF are generally small under weak scintillation (0.2 < S4 ≤ 0.6) or non-scintillation (S4 ≤ 0.2) conditions. A strong correlation of scintillation and cycle-slip occurrence is also verified by the daily and spatial statistics results. In addition, it is found that on average every 1000 strong scintillation events can result in 200, 124, and 171 cycle-slip occurrences in GPS, GLONASS, and BDS, respectively, whereas these values are 7, 12, and 12 per 1000 under weak scintillation conditions. This study suggests that cautions be taken when GNSS measurements are contaminated by the strong ionospheric scintillation in GNSS applications such as real-time kinematic (RTK) and precise point positioning (PPP).

Solar Irradiance from 165 to 400 nm in 2008 and UV Variations in Three Spectral Bands During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meftah, M.; Bolsée, D.; Damé, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Pereira, N.; Irbah, A.; Bekki, S.; Cessateur, G.; Foujols, T.; Thiéblemont, R.

2016-12-01

Accurate measurements of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and its temporal variations are of primary interest to better understand solar mechanisms, and the links between solar variability and Earth's atmosphere and climate. The SOLar SPECtrum (SOLSPEC) instrument of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has been built to carry out SSI measurements from 165 to 3088 nm. We focus here on the ultraviolet (UV) part of the measured solar spectrum (wavelengths less than 400 nm) because the UV part is potentially important for understanding the solar forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. We present here SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV data obtained since 2008, and their variations in three spectral bands during Solar Cycle 24. They are compared with previously reported UV measurements and model reconstructions, and differences are discussed.

Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

2016-07-01

A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

Examination of the Armagh Observatory Annual Mean Temperature Record, 1844-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2006-01-01

The long-term annual mean temperature record (1844-2004) of the Armagh Observatory (Armagh, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom) is examined for evidence of systematic variation, in particular, as related to solar/geomagnetic forcing and secular variation. Indeed, both are apparent in the temperature record. Moving averages for 10 years of temperature are found to highly correlate against both 10-year moving averages of the aa-geomagnetic index and sunspot number, having correlation coefficients of approx. 0.7, inferring that nearly half the variance in the 10-year moving average of temperature can be explained by solar/geomagnetic forcing. The residuals appear episodic in nature, with cooling seen in the 1880s and again near 1980. Seven of the last 10 years of the temperature record has exceeded 10 C, unprecedented in the overall record. Variation of sunspot cyclic averages and 2-cycle moving averages of temperature strongly associate with similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle, with the residuals displaying an apparent 9-cycle variation and a steep rise in temperature associated with cycle 23. Hale cycle averages of temperature for even-odd pairs of sunspot cycles correlate against similar averages for the solar/geomagnetic cycle and, especially, against the length of the Hale cycle. Indications are that annual mean temperature will likely exceed 10 C over the next decade.

The solar energetic particle propagation of solar flare events on 24th solar cycle.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paluk, P.; Khumlumlert, T.; Kanlayaprasit, N.; Aiemsa-ad, N.

2017-09-01

Now the Sun is in the 24th solar cycle. The peak of solar cycle correspond to the number of the Sun activities, which one of them is solar flare. The solar flare is the violent explosion at the solar atmosphere and releases the high energy ion from the Sun to the interplanetary medium. Solar energetic particles or solar cosmic ray have important effect on the Earth, such as disrupt radio communication. We analyze the particle transport of the solar flare events on August 9, 2011, January 27, 2012, and November 3, 2013 in 24th solar cycle. The particle data for each solar flare was obtained from SIS instrument on ACE spacecraft. We simulate the particle transport with the equation of Ruffolo 1995, 1998. We solve the transport equation with the numerical technique of finite different. We find the injection duration from the Sun to the Earth by the compared fitting method of piecewise linear function between the simulation results and particle data from spacecraft. The position of these solar flare events are on the west side of the Sun, which are N18W68, N33W85, and S12W16. We found that mean free path is roughly constant for a single event. This implies that the interplanetary scattering is approximately energy independent, but the level of scattering varies with time. The injection duration decreases with increasing energy. We found the resultant variation of the highest energy and lowest energy, because the effect of space environments and the number of the detected data was small. The high mean free path of the high energy particles showed the transport capability of particles along to the variable magnetic field line. The violent explosion of these solar flares didn’t affect on the Earth magnetic field with Kp-index less than 3.

Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays Observed by SOHO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleck, Bernhard; Curdt, Werner; Olive, Jean-Philippe; van Overbeek, Ton

2015-04-01

Both the Cosmic Ray Flux (CRF) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) have left an imprint on SOHO technical systems. While the solar array efficiency degraded irreversibly down to 75% of its original level over 1 ½ solar cycles, Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in the solid state recorder (SSR) have been reversed by the memory protection mechanism. We compare the daily CRF observed by the Oulu station with the daily SOHO SEU rate and with the degradation curve of the solar arrays. The Oulu CRF and the SOHO SSR SEU rate are both modulated by the solar cycle and are highly correlated, except for sharp spikes in the SEU rate, caused by isolated SEP events, which also show up as discontinuities in the otherwise slowly decreasing solar ray efficiency. This allows to discriminate between effects with solar and non-solar origin and to compare the relative strength of both. We find that the total number of SSR SEUs with solar origin over the 17 ½ years from January 1996 through June 2013 is of the same order as those generated by cosmic ray hits. 49% of the total solar array degradation during that time can be attributed to proton events, i.e. the effect of a series of short-lived, violent events (SEPs) is comparable to the cycle-integrated damage by cosmic rays.

Properties of sunspot cycles and hemispheric wings since the 19th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leussu, Raisa; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Arlt, Rainer; Mursula, Kalevi

2016-08-01

Aims: The latitudinal evolution of sunspot emergence over the course of the solar cycle, the so-called butterfly diagram, is a fundamental property of the solar dynamo. Here we present a study of the butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence for cycles 7-10 and 11-23 using data from a recently digitized sunspot drawings by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe in 1825-1867, and from RGO/USAF/NOAA(SOON) compilation of sunspot groups in 1874-2015. Methods: We developed a new, robust method of hemispheric wing separation based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. The method makes it possible to ascribe each sunspot group to a certain wing (solar cycle and hemisphere), and separate the old and new cycle during their overlap. This allows for an improved study of solar cycles compared to the common way of separating the cycles. Results: We separated each hemispheric wing of the butterfly diagram and analysed them with respect to the number of groups appearing in each wing, their lengths, hemispheric differences, and overlaps. Conclusions: The overlaps of successive wings were found to be systematically longer in the northern hemisphere for cycles 7-10, but in the southern hemisphere for cycles 16-22. The occurrence of sunspot groups depicts a systematic long-term variation between the two hemispheres. During Schwabe time, the hemispheric asymmetry was north-dominated during cycle 9 and south-dominated during cycle 10.

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

AFT: Extending Solar Cycle Prediction with Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upton, L.; Hathaway, D. H.

2017-12-01

The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model is an innovative surface flux transport model that simulates the evolution of the radial magnetic field on the surface of the Sun. AFT was designed to be as realistic as possible by 1: incorporating the observed surface flows (meridional flow, differential rotation, and an explicit evolving convective pattern) and by 2: using data assimilation to incorporate the observed magnetic fields directly from line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms. AFT has proven to be successful in simulating the evolution of the surface magnetic fields on both short time scales (days-weeks) as well as for long time scales (years). In particular, AFT has been shown to accurately predict the evolution of the Sun's dipolar magnetic field 3-5 years in advance. Since the Sun's polar magnetic field strength at solar cycle minimum is the best indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, this has in turn extended our ability to make solar cycle predictions to 3-5 years before solar minimum occurs. Here, we will discuss some of the challenges of implementing data assimilation into AFT. We will also discuss the role of data assimilation in advancing solar cycle predictive capability.

Electrostatic bonding of thin (cycle sine 3 mil) 7070 cover glass to Ta2O5 AR-coated thin (cycle sine 2 mil) silicon wafers and solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egelkrout, D. W.

1981-01-01

Electrostatic bonding of thin cover glass to thin solar cells was researched. Silicon solar cells, wafers, and Corning 7070 glass of from about 0.002" to about 0.003" in thickness were used in the investigation to establish optimum parameters for producing mechanically acceptable bonds while minimizing thermal stresses and resultant solar cell electrical parameter degradation.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

North-south asymmetry of solar activity as a superposition of two realizations - the sign and absolute value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badalyan, O. G.; Obridko, V. N.

2017-07-01

Context. Since the occurrence of north-south asymmetry (NSA) of alternating sign may be determined by different mechanisms, the frequency and amplitude characteristics of this phenomenon should be considered separately. Aims: We propose a new approach to the description of the NSA of solar activity. Methods: The asymmetry defined as A = (N-S)/(N + S) (where N and S are, respectively, the indices of activity of the northern and southern hemispheres) is treated as a superposition of two functions: the sign of asymmetry (signature) and its absolute value (modulus). This approach is applied to the analysis of the NSA of sunspot group areas for the period 1874-2013. Results: We show that the sign of asymmetry provides information on the behavior of the asymmetry. In particular, it displays quasi-periodic variation with a period of 12 yr and quasi-biennial oscillations as the asymmetry itself. The statistics of the so-called monochrome intervals (long periods of positive or negative asymmetry) are considered and it is shown that the distribution of these intervals is described by the random distribution law. This means that the dynamo mechanisms governing the cyclic variation of solar activity must involve random processes. At the same time, the asymmetry modulus has completely different statistical properties and is probably associated with processes that determine the amplitude of the cycle. One can reliably isolate an 11-yr cycle in the behavior of the asymmetry absolute value shifted by half a period with respect to the Wolf numbers. It is shown that the asymmetry modulus has a significant prognostic value: the higher the maximum of the asymmetry modulus, the lower the following Wolf number maximum. Conclusions: A fundamental nature of this concept of NSA is discussed in the context of the general methodology of cognizing the world. It is supposed that the proposed description of the NSA will help clarify the nature of this phenomenon.

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index () in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide () index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

STRONG SOLAR WIND DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES: INTERPLANETARY SOURCES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETIC FIELDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zuo, Pingbing; Feng, Xueshang; Wang, Yi

In this investigation, we first present a statistical result of the interplanetary sources of very strong solar wind dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) detected by WIND during solar cycle 23. It is found that the vast majority of strong DPPs reside within solar wind disturbances. Although the variabilities of geosynchronous magnetic fields (GMFs) due to the impact of positive DPPs have been well established, there appears to be no systematic investigations on the response of GMFs to negative DPPs. Here, we study both the decompression effects of very strong negative DPPs and the compression from strong positive DPPs on GMFs atmore » different magnetic local time sectors. In response to the decompression of strong negative DPPs, GMFs on the dayside near dawn and near dusk on the nightside, are generally depressed. But near the midnight region, the responses of GMF are very diverse, being either positive or negative. For part of the events when GOES is located at the midnight sector, the GMF is found to abnormally increase as the result of magnetospheric decompression caused by negative DPPs. It is known that under certain conditions magnetic depression of nightside GMFs can be caused by the impact of positive DPPs. Here, we find that a stronger pressure enhancement may have a higher probability of producing the exceptional depression of GMF at the midnight region. Statistically, both the decompression effect of strong negative DPPs and the compression effect of strong positive DPPs depend on the magnetic local time, which are stronger at the noon sector.« less

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T.

The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaoticmore » attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.« less

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

1997-01-01

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

2015-09-01

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

MAVEN Upstream Observations of the Cycle 24 Space Weather Conditions at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Eparvier, F. G.; Li, Y.; Jian, L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M.

2016-12-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft went into orbit around Mars during the height of the activity phase of Solar Cycle 24. The mission was designed in part to study the response of the upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere of Mars to solar and solar wind inputs. When MAVEN is on the Martian dayside and orbiting around its apoapsis altitude of 6200 km, the suite of instruments onboard can measure the solar wind plasma (density, velocity), interplanetary magnetic field (magnitude and direction), and particle counts of solar energetic particles (SEPs), as well as the EUV solar irradiance. We will present an overview of the upstream conditions observed to date and highlight a number of Mars-impacting space weather events due to ICMEs and SEPs. We will also present events that are triggered by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which become more prominent beyond 1 AU and are the dominant heliospheric structures during the declining phase of the solar cycle. As part of the discussion, we will compare and contrast observations from MAVEN and ACE/WIND or STEREO-A during periods when Mars and the 1-AU observer were in solar opposition or nearly aligned along the solar wind Parker spiral.

Study of seismic activity during the ascending and descending phases of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukma, Indriani; Abidin, Zamri Zainal

2017-06-01

The study of the solar cycle and geomagnetic index associated with the seismic activity from the year 1901 to the end of 2015 has been done for an area that covers the majority of China and its bordering countries. Data of sunspot number, solar wind speed, daily storm time index and earthquake number are collected from NOAA, NASA, WDC, OMNI and USGS databases and websites. The earthquakes are classified into small (M < 5) and large (M ≥ 5) magnitudes (in Richter scale). We investigated the variation of earthquake activities with the geomagnetic storm index due to the solar wind. We focused on their variation in the ascending and descending phases of solar cycle. From our study, we conclude that there is a correlation between the phases' geomagnetic index and solar wind speed. We have also suggested that there is a certain degree of correlation between solar activity and seismicity in these phases. For every solar cycle, we find that there is a trend for earthquakes to occur in greater numbers during the descending phase. This can be explained by the increment in the solar wind speed and geomagnetic storm index during this phase.

Distinct Pattern of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays above a High Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Clem, John; Evenson, Paul; Pyle, Roger; Mitthumsiri, Warit; Ruffolo, David; Sáiz, Alejandro; Nutaro, Tanin

2018-05-01

Solar modulation refers to Galactic cosmic-ray variations with the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle and ∼22 yr solar magnetic cycle and is relevant to the space radiation environment and effects on Earth’s atmosphere. Its complicated dependence on solar and heliospheric conditions is only roughly understood and has been empirically modeled in terms of a single modulation parameter. Most analyses of solar modulation use neutron monitor (NM) data from locations with relatively low geomagnetic cutoff rigidity, i.e., the threshold for cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field. The Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, has the world’s highest cutoff rigidity (≈17 GV) where observations span a complete solar modulation cycle (since late 2007). The pattern of solar modulation at Doi Inthanon during 2011–2014 was qualitatively very different from that at a low geomagnetic cutoff and is not well described by the same modulation parameter. At other times, NM count rates from Doi Inthanon and McMurdo, Antarctica (cutoff ∼1 GV), were linearly correlated and confirm the observation from latitude surveys in the previous solar cycle that the slope of the correlation changes with solar magnetic polarity. Low solar magnetic tilt angles (<40° at negative polarity) were well correlated with variations at both NM stations, as predicted by drift models. At a higher tilt angle, the Doi Inthanon count rate is well correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field, which is consistent with an increase in diffusion at high rigidity short-circuiting the effects of drifts and the heliospheric current sheet.

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2011-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swartz, W. H.; Stolarski, R. S.; Oman, L. D.; Fleming, E. L.; Jackman, C. H.

2012-01-01

The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

The Sun and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

Galactic CR in the Heliosphere according to NM data, 3. Results for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L.; Dorman, I.; Iucci, N.; Parisi, M.; Villoresi, G.; Zukerman, I.

We found that the maximum of correlation coefficient between cosmic ray (CR) intensity and solar activity (SA) variations is occurred for even cycles 20 and 22 for about two-three times in the shorter time than for odd cycles 19 and 21. We came to conclusion that this difference is caused by CR drift effects: during even cycle drifts produced the small increasing of CR global modulation (additional to the caused by convection-diffusion mechanism) in the period from minimum to maximum of SA, and after the maximum of SA up to the minimum- about the same decreasing of CR modulation. This gives sufficient decreasing of observed time lag between CR and- SA in even solar cycles. We analyzed monthly and 11 months smoothed data of (CR) intensity observed by neutron monitors with different cut-off rigidities for even solar cycles 20 and 22. We use a special model described the connection between solar activity (characterized by monthly sunspot numbers) and CR convection- diff usion global modulation with taking into account time-lag of processes in the Heliosphere relative to the active processes on the Sun. For taking into account drifts we use models described in literature. In the first we correct observed long-term CR modulation on drifts with different amplitudes from 0 (no drifts), then 0.15%, 0.25%,... up to 4%. For each expected amplitude of drifts we determine the correlation coefficient between expected CR variations and observed by neutron monitors with different cut - off rigidities for different times of solar wind transportation from the Sun to the boundary of the modulation region from 1 to 60 average months (it corresponds approximately to dimension of modulation region from about 6 to 360 AU). We compare observed res ults for even solar cycles 20 and 22.