Reinforcement of double dynamo waves as a source of solar activity and its prediction on millennium timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E.; Zharkova, V. V.; Shepherd, S. J.; Zharkov, S.

2016-12-01

Using the principal components of solar magnetic field variations derived from the synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (Zharkova et al, 2015) we confirm our previous prediction of the upcoming Maunder minimum to occur in cycles 25-27, or in 2020-2055. We also use a summary curve of the two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations (or two dynamo waves) to extrapolate solar activity backwards to the three millennia and to compare it with relevant historic and Holocene data. Extrapolation of the summary curve confirms the eight grand cycles of 350-400-years superimposed on 22 year-cycles caused by beating effect of the two dynamo waves generated in the two (deep and shallow) layers of the solar interior. The grand cycles in different periods comprise a different number of individual 22-year cycles; the longer the grand cycles the larger number of 22 year cycles and the smaller their amplitudes. We also report the super-grand cycle of about 2000 years often found in solas activity with spectral analysis. Furthermore, the summary curve reproduces a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past: the recent Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1790-1815), Wolf minimum (1200), Homeric minimum (800-900 BC), the Medieval Warmth Period (900-1200), the Roman Warmth Period (400-10BC) and so on. Temporal variations of these dynamo waves are modelled with the two layer mean dynamo model with meridional circulation revealing a remarkable resemblance of the butterfly diagram to the one derived for the last Maunder minimum in 17 century and predicting the one for the upcoming Maunder minimum in 2020-2055.

Solar-Cycle Variability of Magnetosheath Fluctuations at Earth and Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, N. K.; Narita, Y.; Kovacs, P.

2014-12-01

The magnetosheath is a region between the bow-shock and magnetopause and the magnetosheath plasma is mostly in the turbulent state. In the present investigation we put an effort to closely examine the magnetosheath fluctuations dependency on the solar-cycles (solar-maximum and solar minimum) at the magnetized planetary body (Earth) and their comparison with the un-magnetized planetary body (Venus) for the solar minimum. We use the CLUSTER FGM data for the solar-maximum (2001-2002), solar-minimum (2006-2008) and Venus fluxgate magnetometer data for the solar-minimum (2006-2008) to perform a comparative statistical study on the energy spectra and probability density function (PDF) and asses the spectral features of the magnetic fluctuations of the both planetary bodies. In the comparison we study the relation between the inertial ranges of the spectra and the temporal scales of non-Gaussian magnetic fluctuations derived from PDF analyses. The first can refer to turbulent cascade dynamics, while the latter may indicate intermittency. We first transformed the magnetic field data into mean field aligned coordinate system with respect to the large-scale magnetic field direction and then after we compute the power spectral density with the help of Welch algorithm. The computed energy spectra of Earth's magnetosheath show a moderate variability with the solar-cycles and have a broader inertial range. However the estimated energy spectra for the solar-minimum at Venus give the clear evidence of the existence of the break point in the vicinity of the ion gyroradius. After the break-point the energy spectra become steeper and show a distinctive spectral scales which is interpreted as the realization of the begging of the energy cascade. We also briefly address the influence of turbulence on the plasma transport and wave dynamics responsible for the spectral break and predict spectral features of the energy spectra for the solar-maximum at Venus based on the results obtained for the solar-minimum. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement number 313038/STORM.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences over the Winter Arctic Simulated by the WACCM4 Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. F.; Limpasuvan, T. L.; Limpasuvan, V.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

Observations show that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle perturb the polar vortex via planetary wave convergence at high latitudes, a mechanism first proposed by Holton and Tan in 1980. Their perturbations lead to increases of stratospheric sudden warming events, and hence observable increases in temperature and ozone abundance in the polar vortex, during the easterly phase of QBO and the solar maximum. Here we simulate the changes in the polar atmosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model 4 (WACCM4) with the prescribed QBO and 11-year solar cycle forcing. The simulation is diagnosed in four groups: westerly QBO phase and solar minimum, westerly QBO phase and solar maximum, easterly QBO phase and solar minimum, and easterly QBO phase and solar maximum. The simulated changes in temperature and ozone are compared with satellite observations.

NEW EVIDENCE FOR CHARGE-SIGN-DEPENDENT MODULATION DURING THE SOLAR MINIMUM OF 2006 TO 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Felice, V.; Munini, R.; Vos, E. E.

The PAMELA space experiment, in orbit since 2006, has measured cosmic rays (CRs) through the most recent period of minimum solar activity with the magnetic field polarity as A  < 0. During this entire time, galactic electrons and protons have been detected down to 70 MV and 400 MV, respectively, and their differential variation in intensity with time has been monitored with unprecedented accuracy. These observations are used to show how differently electrons and protons responded to the quiet modulation conditions that prevailed from 2006 to 2009. It is well known that particle drifts, as one of four major mechanisms for the solarmore » modulation of CRs, cause charge-sign-dependent solar modulation. Periods of minimum solar activity provide optimal conditions in which to study these drift effects. The observed behavior is compared to the solutions of a three-dimensional model for CRs in the heliosphere, including drifts. The numerical results confirm that the difference in the evolution of electron and proton spectra during the last prolonged solar minimum is attributed to a large extent to particle drifts. We therefore present new evidence of charge-sign-dependent solar modulation, with a perspective on its peculiarities for the observed period from 2006 to 2009.« less

LASCO Observations Of The K-Corona From Solar Minimum To Solar Maximum And Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Michael D.; Howard, Russell A.

2003-09-01

The LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs on SOHO have been recording a regular series of images of the corona since May 1996. This sequence of data covers the period of solar minimum, the increase to solar maximum, and the beginning of the decline toward the next solar minimum. The images have been analyzed to determine the brightness of the K-corona (solar photons Thomson scattered from free electrons). The total brightness of the K-corona is approximately constant from May 1996 through May 1997. The brightness is then seen to increase steadily until early in the year 2000. The structure of the K-corona changes dramatically with solar cycle. The shape as seen in C2 becomes almost circular at solar maximum while the C3 images continue to show equatorial streamers. The magnitude of the solar cycle variation decreases as the height increases. We present data animations (movies) to show the large-scale structure. We have inverted 28-day averages of the white light images to determine radial profiles of electron density. We present these electron profiles, show how they vary as a function of both latitude and time, and compare our observed profiles with other models and observations.

Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.

2012-01-01

Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism

Simulation of Earth-Moon-Mars Environments for the Assessment of Organ Doses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. Y.; Schwadron, N. A.; Townsend, L.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2010-12-01

Space radiation environments for historically large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at solar minimum and solar maximum are simulated in order to characterize exposures to radio-sensitive organs for missions to low-Earth orbit (LEO), moon, and Mars. Primary and secondary particles for SPE and GCR are transported through the respective atmosphere of Earth or Mars, space vehicle, and astronaut’s body tissues using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code. In LEO, exposures are reduced compared to deep space because particles are deflected by the Earth’s magnetic field and absorbed by the solid body of the Earth. Geomagnetic transmission function as a function of altitude was applied for the particle flux of charged particles, and the shift of the organ exposures to higher velocity or lower stopping powers compared to those in deep space was analyzed. In the transport through Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of atmospheric thickness was calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution was implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each altitude. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at solar minimum and solar maximum was used for the particle flux simulation at various altitudes on the Martian surface. Finally, atmospheric shielding was coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. We made predictions of radiation dose equivalents and evaluated acute symptoms at LEO, moon, and Mars at solar minimum and solar maximum.

Solar activity as driver for the Dark Age Grand Solar Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar

2017-04-01

We will discuss the role of solar activity for the temperature variability from AD 550 to 840, roughly the last three centuries of the Dark Ages. This time range includes the so-called Dark Age Grand Solar Minimum, whose deep part is dated to about AD 650 to 700, which is seen in increased radiocarbon, but decreased aurora observations (and a lack of naked-eye sunspot sightings). We present historical reports on aurorae from all human cultures with written reports including East Asia, Near East (Arabia), and Europe. To classify such reports correctly, clear criteria are needed, which are also discussed. We compare our catalog of historical aurorae (and sunspots) as well as C-14 data, i.e. solar activity proxies, with temperature reconstructions (PAGES). After increased solar activity until around AD 600, we see a dearth of aurorae and increased radiocarbon production in particular in the second half of the 7th century, i.e. a typical Grand Solar Minimum. Then, after about AD 690 (the maximum in radiocarbon, the end of the Dark Age Grand Minimum), we see increased auroral activity, decreasing radiocarbon, and increasing temperature until about AD 775. At around AD 775, we see the well-known strong C-14 variability (solar activity drop), then immediately another dearth of aurorae plus high C-14, indicating another solar activity minimum. This is consistent with a temperature depression from about AD 775 on into the beginning of the 9th century. Very high solar activity is then seen in the first four decades with four aurora clusters and three simultaneous sunspot clusters, and low C-14, again also increasing temperature. The period of increasing solar activity marks the end of the so-called Dark Ages: While auroral activity increases since about AD 793, temperature starts to increase quite exactly at AD 800. We can reconstruct the Schwabe cycles with aurorae and C-14 data. In summary, we can see a clear correspondence of the variability of solar activity proxies and surface temperature reconstructions. This indicates that solar activity is an important climate driver.

Solar wind velocity and temperature in the outer heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gazis, P. R.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Lazarus, A. J.

1994-01-01

At the end of 1992, the Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Voyager 2 spacecraft were at heliocentric distances of 56.0, 37.3, and 39.0 AU and heliographic latitudes of 3.3 deg N, 17.4 deg N, and 8.6 deg S, respectively. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 2 are at similar celestial longitudes, while Pioneer 10 is on the opposite side of the Sun. All three spacecraft have working plasma analyzers, so intercomparison of data from these spacecraft provides important information about the global character of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. The averaged solar wind speed continued to exhibit its well-known variation with solar cycle: Even at heliocentric distances greater than 50 AU, the average speed is highest during the declining phase of the solar cycle and lowest near solar minimum. There was a strong latitudinal gradient in solar wind speed between 3 deg and 17 deg N during the last solar minimum, but this gradient has since disappeared. The solar wind temperature declined with increasing heliocentric distance out to a heliocentric distance of at least 20 AU; this decline appeared to continue at larger heliocentric distances, but temperatures in the outer heliosphere were suprisingly high. While Pioneer 10 and Voyager 2 observed comparable solar wind temperatures, the temperature at Pioneer 11 was significantly higher, which suggests the existence of a large-scale variation of temperature with heliographic longitude. There was also some suggestion that solar wind temperatures were higher near solar minimum.

Could a Hexagonal Sunspot Have Been Observed During the Maunder Minimum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, V. M. S.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.

2018-03-01

The Maunder Minimum is the period between 1645 and 1715. Its main characteristic is abnormally low and prolonged solar activity. However, some authors have doubted the low level of solar activity during that period by questioning the accuracy and objectivity of the observers. This work presents a particular case of a sunspot observed during the Maunder Minimum with an unusual shape of its umbra and penumbra: a hexagon. This sunspot was observed by Cassini in November 1676, just at the core of the Maunder Minimum. This historical observation is compared with a twin case that occurred recently in May 2016. The conclusion reached is that Cassini's record is another example of the good quality of the observations that were made during the Maunder Minimum, showing the meticulousness of the astronomers of that epoch. This sunspot observation made by Cassini does not support the conclusions of Zolotova and Ponyavin ( Astrophys. J. 800, 42, 2015) that professional astronomers in the seventeenth century only registered round sunspots. Finally, a discussion is given of the importance of this kind of unusual sunspot record for a better assessment of the true level of solar activity in the Maunder Minimum.

The asymmetrical features in electron density during extreme solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuemin; Shen, Xuhui; Liu, Jing; Yao, Lu; Yuan, Guiping; Huang, Jianping

2014-12-01

The variations of plasma density in topside ionosphere during 23rd/24th solar cycle minimum attract more attentions in recently years. In this analysis, we use the data of electron density (Ne) from DEMETER (Detection of Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at the altitude of 660-710 km to investigate the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry under geomagnetic coordinate system at LT (local time) 1030 and 2230 during 2005-2010, especially in solar minimum years of 2008-2009. The results reveal that ΔNe (December-June) is always positive over Southern Hemisphere and negative over northern part whatever at LT 1030 or 2230, only at 0-10°N the winter anomaly occurs with ΔNe (December-June) > 0, and its amplitude becomes smaller with the declining of solar flux from 2005 to 2009. The ΔNe between September and March is completely negative during 2005-2008, but in 2009, it turns to be positive at latitudes of 20°S-40°N at LT 1030 and 10°S-20°N at LT 2230. Furthermore, the solstitial and equinoctial asymmetry index (AI) are calculated and studied respectively, which all depends on local time, latitude and longitude. The notable differences occur at higher latitudes in solar minimum year of 2009 with those in 2005-2008. The equinoctial AI at LT 2230 is quite consistent with the variational trend of solar flux with the lowest absolute AI occurring in 2009, the extreme solar minimum, but the solstitial AI exhibits abnormal enhancement during 2008 and 2009 with bigger AI than those in 2005-2007. Compared with the neutral compositions at 500 km altitude, it illustrates that [O/N2] and [O] play some roles in daytime and nighttime asymmetry of Ne at topside ionosphere.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, Jason Lee, E-mail: jasoncurtis.astro@gmail.com

The solar analogs of M67 let us glimpse the probable behavior of the Sun on timescales surpassing the duration of human civilization. M67 can serve as a solar proxy because its stars share a similar age and composition with the Sun. Previous surveys of M67 observed that 15% of its Sun-like stars exhibited chromospheric activity levels below solar minimum, which suggest that these stars might be in activity-minimum states analogous to the Maunder Minimum. The activity diagnostic used, the HK index (relative intensities of the Ca ii H and K lines integrated over 1 Å bandpasses), was measured from low-resolution spectramore » ( R ≈ 5000), as is traditional and suitable for nearby, bright stars. However, for stars beyond the Local Bubble, the interstellar medium (ISM) imprints absorption lines in spectra at Ca ii H and K, which negatively bias activity measurements when these lines fall within the HK index bandpass. I model the ISM clouds in the M67 foreground with high-resolution spectra of blue stragglers and solar analogs. I demonstrate that ISM absorption varies across the cluster and must be accounted for on a star-by-star basis. I then apply the ISM model to a solar spectrum and broaden it to the lower spectral resolution employed by prior surveys. Comparing HK indices measured from ISM-free and ISM-contaminated spectra, I find that all stars observed below solar minimum can be explained by this ISM bias. I conclude that there is no compelling evidence for Maunder Minimum candidates in M67 at this time.« less

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adam, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.

2011-01-01

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Periods of High Intensity Solar Proton Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Michael A.; Stauffer, Craig A.; Jordan, Thomas M.; Adams, James H.; Dietrich, William F.

2012-01-01

Analysis is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Bifacial PV cell with reflector for stand-alone mast for sensor powering purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobsen, Michael L.; Thorsteinsson, Sune; Poulsen, Peter B.; Riedel, N.; Rødder, Peter M.; Rødder, Kristin

2017-09-01

Reflectors to bifacial PV-cells are simulated and prototyped in this work. The aim is to optimize the reflector to specific latitudes, and particularly northern latitudes. Specifically, by using minimum semiconductor area the reflector must be able to deliver the electrical power required at the condition of minimum solar travel above the horizon, worst weather condition etc. We will test a bifacial PV-module with a retroreflector, and compare the output with simulations combined with local solar data.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

The Minimum-Mass Surface Density of the Solar Nebula using the Disk Evolution Equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

2005-01-01

The Hayashi minimum-mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula (Hayashi 1981, Prog. Theo. Phys.70,35) is revisited using analytic solutions of the disk evolution equation. A new cumulative-planetary-mass-model (an integrated form of the surface density) is shown to predict a smoother surface density compared with methods based on direct estimates of surface density from planetary data. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the cumulative planetary mass data with the surface density obtained by direct differentiation. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the planetary data. The latter model indicates a decay rate of r -1/2 in the inner disk followed by a rapid decay which results in a sharper outer boundary than predicted by the minimum mass model. The model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula and by extension to extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Solar Wind Helium Abundance as a Function of Speed and Heliographic Latitude: Variation through a Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasper, J. C.; Stenens, M. L.; Stevens, M. L.; Lazarus, A. J.; Steinberg, J. T.; Ogilvie, Keith W.

2006-01-01

We present a study of the variation of the relative abundance of helium to hydrogen in the solar wind as a function of solar wind speed and heliographic latitude over the previous solar cycle. The average values of A(sub He), the ratio of helium to hydrogen number densities, are calculated in 25 speed intervals over 27-day Carrington rotations using Faraday Cup observations from the Wind spacecraft between 1995 and 2005. The higher speed and time resolution of this study compared to an earlier work with the Wind observations has led to the discovery of three new aspects of A(sub He), modulation during solar minimum from mid-1995 to mid-1997. First, we find that for solar wind speeds between 350 and 415 km/s, A(sub He), varies with a clear six-month periodicity, with a minimum value at the heliographic equatorial plane and a typical gradient of 0.01 per degree in latitude. For the slow wind this is a 30% effect. We suggest that the latitudinal gradient may be due to an additional dependence of coronal proton flux on coronal field strength or the stability of coronal loops. Second, once the gradient is subtracted, we find that A(sub He), is a remarkably linear function of solar wind speed. Finally, we identify a vanishing speed, at which A(sub He), is zero, is 259 km/s and note that this speed corresponds to the minimum solar wind speed observed at one AU. The vanishing speed may be related to previous theoretical work in which enhancements of coronal helium lead to stagnation of the escaping proton flux. During solar maximum the A(sub He), dependences on speed and latitude disappear, and we interpret this as evidence of two source regions for slow solar wind in the ecliptic plane, one being the solar minimum streamer belt and the other likely being active regions.

INFERRING THE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE DURING THE MAUNDER MINIMUM USING GLOBAL THERMODYNAMIC MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A., E-mail: pete@predsci.com, E-mail: lionel@predsci.com, E-mail: linkerj@predsci.com

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from {sup 10}Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities atmore » Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.« less

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Space weather influence on the agriculture technology and wheat prices in the medieval England (1259-1703) through cosmic ray/solar activity cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L. I.; Pustil'Nik, L. A.; Yom Din, G.

2003-04-01

The database of Professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity variations. The main object of our statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. Our study shows that bursts and troughs of wheat prices take place at extreme states (maximums or minimums) of solar activity cycles. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by cosmic ray intensity solar cycle variations, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. The medians of both samples have the values of 11.00 and 10.7 years; standard deviations are 1.44 and 1.53 years for prices and for solar activity, respectively. The hypothesis that the frequency distributions are the same for both of the samples have significance level >95%. In the next step we analyzed direct links between wheat prices and cosmic ray cycle variations in the 17th Century, for which both wheat prices and cosmic ray intensity (derived from Be-10 isotope data) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums (cosmic ray intensity maximums) the observed prices were higher than prices for the seven intervals of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation). This result, combined with the conclusion of similarity of statistical properties of the price and solar activity extremes can be considered as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity/cosmic ray intensity extremes.

Steps towards understanding deep atmospheric heating in flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauas, Pablo J. D.; Machado, Marcos E.

1986-01-01

Different aspects of the heating of the deep solar atmosphere during flares, including temperature minimum enhancements and white light emission, are discussed. The proper treatment of H(-) radiative losses is discussed, and compared with previous studies, as well as a quantitative analysis of the ionizing effect of nonthermal particles and ultraviolet radiation. It is concluded that temperature minimum heating may be a natural consequence of the global radiation transport in flares. The implications of these results are discussed within the context of homogeneous and inhomogeneous models of the solar atmosphere.

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David

2010-01-01

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

Impacts of Stratospheric Dynamics on Atmospheric Behavior from the Ground to Space Solar Minimum and Solar Maximum

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-15

from the ground to space solar minimum and solar maximum 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER BAA-76-11-01 5b. GRANT NUMBER N00173-12-1G010 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...atmospheric behavior from the ground to space under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions (Contract No.: N00173-12-1-G010 NRL) Project Summary...Dynamical response to solar radiative forcing is a crucial and poorly understood mechanisms. We propose to study the impacts of large dynamical events

Recent perspectives in solar physics - Elemental composition, coronal structure and magnetic fields, solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newkirk, G., Jr.

1975-01-01

Elemental abundances in the solar corona are studied. Abundances in the corona, solar wind and solar cosmic rays are compared to those in the photosphere. The variation in silicon and iron abundance in the solar wind as compared to helium is studied. The coronal small and large scale structure is investigated, emphasizing magnetic field activity and examining cosmic ray generation mechanisms. The corona is observed in the X-ray and EUV regions. The nature of coronal transients is discussed with emphasis on solar-wind modulation of galactic cosmic rays. A schematic plan view of the interplanetary magnetic field during sunspot minimum is given showing the presence of magnetic bubbles and their concentration in the region around 4-5 AU by a fast solar wind stream.

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: On Grand Minima in Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcintosh, Scott; Leamon, Robert

2015-07-01

The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There has been tremendous progress in the century since the discovery of solar magnetism - magnetism that ultimately drives the electromagnetic, particulate and eruptive forcing of our planetary system. There is contemporary evidence of a decrease in solar magnetism, perhaps even indicators of a significant downward trend, over recent decades. Are we entering a minimum in solar activity that is deeper and longer than a typical solar minimum, a "grand minimum"? How could we tell if we are? What is a grand minimum and how does the Sun recover? These are very pertinent questions for modern civilization. In this paper we present a hypothetical demonstration of entry and exit from grand minimum conditions based on a recent analysis of solar features over the past 20 years and their possible connection to the origins of the 11(-ish) year solar activity cycle.

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2010-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Turbulent Transport in a Three-dimensional Solar Wind

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiota, D.; Zank, G. P.; Adhikari, L.

2017-03-01

Turbulence in the solar wind can play essential roles in the heating of coronal and solar wind plasma and the acceleration of the solar wind and energetic particles. Turbulence sources are not well understood and thought to be partly enhanced by interaction with the large-scale inhomogeneity of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field and/or transported from the solar corona. To investigate the interaction with background inhomogeneity and the turbulence sources, we have developed a new 3D MHD model that includes the transport and dissipation of turbulence using the theoretical model of Zank et al. We solve for themore » temporal and spatial evolution of three moments or variables, the energy in the forward and backward fluctuating modes and the residual energy and their three corresponding correlation lengths. The transport model is coupled to our 3D model of the inhomogeneous solar wind. We present results of the coupled solar wind-turbulence model assuming a simple tilted dipole magnetic configuration that mimics solar minimum conditions, together with several comparative intermediate cases. By considering eight possible solar wind and turbulence source configurations, we show that the large-scale solar wind and IMF inhomogeneity and the strength of the turbulence sources significantly affect the distribution of turbulence in the heliosphere within 6 au. We compare the predicted turbulence distribution results from a complete solar minimum model with in situ measurements made by the Helios and Ulysses spacecraft, finding that the synthetic profiles of the turbulence intensities show reasonable agreement with observations.« less

Comparative evaluation of distributed-collector solar thermal electric power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujita, T.; El Gabalawi, N.; Herrera, G. G.; Caputo, R. S.

1978-01-01

Distributed-collector solar thermal-electric power plants are compared by projecting power plant economics of selected systems to the 1990-2000 timeframe. The approach taken is to evaluate the performance of the selected systems under the same weather conditions. Capital and operational costs are estimated for each system. Energy costs are calculated for different plant sizes based on the plant performance and the corresponding capital and maintenance costs. Optimum systems are then determined as the systems with the minimum energy costs for a given load factor. The optimum system is comprised of the best combination of subsystems which give the minimum energy cost for every plant size. Sensitivity analysis is done around the optimum point for various plant parameters.

MESSENGER soft X-ray observations of the quiet solar corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Richard A.; Hudson, Hugh S.; Tolbert, Anne K; Dennis, Brian R.

2014-06-01

In a remarkable result from their "SphinX" experiment, Sylwester et al. (2012) found a non-varying base level of soft X-ray emission at the quietest times in 2009. We describe comparable data from the soft X-ray monitor on board MESSENGER (en route to Mercury) which had excellent coverage both in 2009 and during the true solar minimum of 2008. These observations overlap SphinX's and also are often exactly at Sun-MESSENGER-Earth conjunctions. During solar minimum the Sun-MESSENGER distance varied substantially, allowing us to use the inverse-square law to help distinguish the aperture flux (ie, solar X-rays) from that due to sources of background in the 2-5 keV range. The MESSENGER data show a non-varying background level for many months in 2008 when no active regions were present. We compare these data in detail with those from SphinX. Both sets of data reveal a different behavior when magnetic active regions are present on the Sun, and when they are not.Reference: Sylwester et al., ApJ 751, 111 (2012)

Measurement of Cosmic-Ray Antiproton Spectrum at Solar Minimum with a Long-Duration Balloon Flight in Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abe, K.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Hams, T.; Hasegawa, M.; Horikoshi, A.; Kim, K. C.; Kusumoto, A.; Lee, M. H.; Makida, Y.;

Measurement of the Cosmic-Ray Antiproton Spectrum at Solar Minimum with a Long-Duration Balloon Flight over Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abe, K.; Fuke, H.; Haino, S.; Hams, T.; Hasegawa, M.; Horikoshi, A.; Kim, K. C.; Kusumoto, A.; Lee, M. H.; Makida, Y.;

Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Fields from a Coupled Dynamo Potential-Field Source-Surface Model.

PubMed

Dikpati, Mausumi; Suresh, Akshaya; Burkepile, Joan

The structure of the Sun's corona varies with the solar-cycle phase, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. It is widely accepted that the large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields that are most likely generated by dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential-field source-surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation; these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona using a potential-field source-surface model. Assuming axisymmetry, we take linear combinations of associated Legendre polynomials that match the more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986 - 1991), we compute the coefficients of the associated Legendre polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observations. We show that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but it fades as the cycle progresses; higher-order multipolar terms begin to dominate. The amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same for the two limbs, indicating that there is a longitude dependence. While both the 1986 and the 1996 minimum coronas were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, since there was a substantial departure from a dipole. We investigate the physical cause of this departure by including a North-South asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our flux-transport dynamo model, and find that this asymmetry could be one of the reasons for departure from the dipole in the 2008 minimum.

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David

2003-01-01

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensities at 1 AU During the Approach to the Cycle 24/25 Solar Minimum and Throughout the Last 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leske, R. A.; Cummings, A. C.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Cohen, C.; Stone, E. C.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2017-12-01

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities, but with differences between solar polarity cycles: at high rigidities, GCRs reach higher peak intensities during A<0 cycles, while ACRs have been higher at A>0 solar minima. At present, during the approach to an A>0 solar minimum, ACR oxygen above 8 MeV/nucleon as measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) has already reached the peak intensities seen during the 2009 A<0 solar minimum, but is still 40% below the levels seen in 1997 during the last A>0 minimum. The GCR iron intensity at 300 MeV/nucleon, on the other hand, is presently comparable to that in 1997 but remains 10% below its record-setting 2009 value. Drift effects play an important role in the modulation of both ACRs and GCRs. Positively charged ions drift inward along the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during A<0 cycles and their intensities are thus sensitive to the HCS tilt angle, which remained high for much of the last solar cycle. We have previously shown that both ACR and GCR intensities were significantly higher for a given HCS tilt angle during the 2000-2012 A<0 cycle than they were during the prior (1980-1990) A<0 cycle, and this trend appears to be continuing into the new A>0 cycle. But while GCR intensities in 2009 reached the highest levels recorded during the last 50 years, ACR intensities were only similar to those in the 1980s A<0 minimum. Factors such as a weaker interplanetary magnetic field, perhaps with a reduction in the ACR source strength or greater sensitivity of ACRs than GCRs to the HCS tilt angle, may account for the difference in their modulation behavior.We present 20 years of ACR and GCR intensity data acquired by ACE throughout two solar cycles, with emphasis on recent observations, and discuss possible reasons for the differences in the relative behavior of ACRs and GCRs in the different solar cycles.

Magnetospheric electron density long-term (>1 day) refilling rates inferred from passive radio emissions measured by IMAGE RPI during geomagnetically quiet times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, R. E.; Wang, Y.; Webb, P. A.; Tengdin, P. M.; Goldstein, J.; Redfern, J. A.; Reinisch, B. W.

2012-03-01

Using measurements of the electron density ne found from passive radio wave observations by the IMAGE spacecraft RPI instrument on consecutive passes through the magnetosphere, we calculate the long-term (>1 day) refilling rate of equatorial electron density dne,eq/dt from L = 2 to 9. Our events did not exhibit saturation, probably because our data set did not include a deep solar minimum and because saturation is an unusual occurrence, especially outside of solar minimum. The median rate in cm-3/day can be modeled with log10(dne,eq/dt) = 2.22 - 0.006L - 0.0347L2, while the third quartile rate can be modeled with log10(dne,eq/dt) = 3.39 - 0.353L, and the mean rate can be modeled as log10(dne,eq/dt) = 2.74 - 0.269L. These statistical values are found from the ensemble of all observed rates at each L value, including negative rates (decreases in density due to azimuthal structure or radial motion or for other reasons), in order to characterize the typical behavior. The first quartile rates are usually negative for L < 4.7 and close to zero for larger L values. Our rates are roughly consistent with previous observations of ion refilling at geostationary orbit. Most previous studies of refilling found larger refilling rates, but many of these examined a single event which may have exhibited unusually rapid refilling. Comparing refilling rates at solar maximum to those at solar minimum, we found that the refilling rate is larger at solar maximum for small L < 4, about the same at solar maximum and solar minimum for L = 4.2 to 5.8, and is larger at solar minimum for large L > 5.8 such as at geostationary orbit (L ˜ 6.8) (at least to L of about 8). These results agree with previous results for ion refilling at geostationary orbit, may agree with previous results at lower L, and are consistent with some trends for ionospheric density.

Decentralized and cost-effective solar water purification system for remote communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abd-ur-Rehman, Hafiz M.; Shakir, Sehar; Atta-ur-Razaq; Saqib, Hamza; Tahir, Saad

2018-05-01

In this study, a modified stepped solar still is proposed for water desalination. The overall objective of this work is to develop and test the proposed still design to identify the productivity enhancement as compared to conventional basin type solar still. The proposed design takes the advantage of its stepped configuration that allows the water stream to maintain a minimum desirable water column height and the water flow through the stages under the force of gravity. A minimum water depth in the still results in a higher rate of evaporation. The still is also incorporated with Fresnel lens to increase the water temperature that eventually increases the rate of water evaporation. Another important aspect of this design is the incorporation of phase-change-material (PCM) to increase the operational hours of the solar still. Consequently, daily productivity of fresh water is increased.

Using the Solar Polar Magnetic Field for Longterm Predictions of Solar Activity, Solar Cycles 21-25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K. H.

2017-12-01

We briefly review the dynamo and geomagnetic precursor methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the amplification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, to the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. We will show how effective the SODA Index has been in predicting Solar Cycles 23 and 24, and present a unified picture of earlier estimates of the polar magnetic configuration in Solar Cycle 21 and 22. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 125 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 70 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. Since the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Great geomagnetic storm of 9 November 1991: Association with a disappearing solar filament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Nitta, N. V.; Li, X.

2009-02-01

We attribute the great geomagnetic storm on 8-10 November 1991 to a large-scale eruption that encompassed the disappearance of a ~25° solar filament in the southern solar hemisphere. The resultant soft X-ray arcade spanned ~90° of solar longitude. The rapid growth of an active region lying at one end of the X-ray arcade appears to have triggered the eruption. This is the largest geomagnetic storm yet associated with the eruption of a quiescent filament. The minimum hourly Dst value of -354 nT on 9 November 1991 compares with a minimum Dst value of -161 nT for the largest 27-day recurrent (coronal hole) storm observed from 1972 to 2005 and the minimum -559 nT value observed during the flare-associated storm of 14 March 1989, the greatest magnetic storm recorded during the space age. Overall, the November 1991 storm ranks 15th on a list of Dst storms from 1905 to 2004, surpassing in intensity such well-known storms as 14 July 1982 (-310 nT) and 15 July 2000 (-317 nT). We used the Cliver et al. and Gopalswamy et al. empirical models of coronal mass ejection propagation in the solar wind to provide consistency checks on the eruption/storm association.

The magnetic field of the earth - Performance considerations for space-based observing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, W. J., Jr.; Taylor, P. T.; Schnetzler, C. C.; Langel, R. A.

1985-01-01

Basic problems inherent in carrying out observations of the earth magnetic field from space are reviewed. It is shown that while useful observations of the core and crustal fields are possible at the peak of the solar cycle, the greatest useful data volume is obtained during solar minimum. During the last three solar cycles, the proportion of data with a planetary disturbance index of less than 2 at solar maximum was in the range 0.4-0.8 in comparison with solar minimum. It is found that current state of the art orbit determination techniques should eliminate orbit error as a problem in gravitational field measurements from space. The spatial resolution obtained for crustal field anomalies during the major satellite observation programs of the last 30 years are compared in a table. The relationship between observing altitude and the spatial resolution of magnetic field structures is discussed. Reference is made to data obtained using the Magsat, the Polar Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (POGO), and instruments on board the Space Shuttle.

A Relationship Between the Solar Rotation and Activity Analysed by Tracing Sunspot Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruždjak, Domagoj; Brajša, Roman; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana

2017-12-01

The sunspot position published in the data bases of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR), the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA), and of the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) in the period 1874 to 2016 were used to calculate yearly values of the solar differential-rotation parameters A and B. These differential-rotation parameters were compared with the solar-activity level. We found that the Sun rotates more differentially at the minimum than at the maximum of activity during the epoch 1977 - 2016. An inverse correlation between equatorial rotation and solar activity was found using the recently revised sunspot number. The secular decrease of the equatorial rotation rate that accompanies the increase in activity stopped in the last part of the twentieth century. It was noted that when a significant peak in equatorial rotation velocity is observed during activity minimum, the next maximum is weaker than the previous one.

Solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency at the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, Marius M.

2015-04-01

We report on the analysis of turbulence properties of the solar wind and the planetary magnetosheaths of Venus and Earth at solar maximum (2000-2001) and minimum (1997-1998, 2007-2008) as revealed by Ulysses, Cluster and Venus Express. We provide an overview of the spectral and scaling properties of turbulence during the targeted time periods. A selection of Ulysses data reveals the spectral properties of the "pure" slow and "pure" fast solar wind turbulence, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. Venus Express and Cluster data contribute to the description of the solar wind turbulence at 0.72 AU and respectively 1 AU. The spectral analysis of magnetosheath data from Venus Express and Cluster reveals the properties of turbulence to be compared to solar wind turbulence. The statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with intermittency revealed as non-Gaussian Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) and scale dependent kurtosis. PDFs are computed for the solar wind data from Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, and complement the analysis based on second order corrrelation function. The same strategy is applied to study the intermittency of the magnetosheath turbulence of Venus and the Earth. The results of our thorough survey of data bases are organized in catalogues available on line: PSD and PDFs results are stored in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosheath, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSDs and PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetosheaths). As an example of higher order analysis resulting from these results we discuss the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence and intermittency. We also discuss how the exploitation of data bases produced by the FP7 project STORM contribute to developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a national grant CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2011-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, K.

2011-12-01

The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

Performance of the IRI-2007 Model for Equatorial Topside Ion Density in the African Sector for Low and Extremely Low Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klenzing, J.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Bilitza, D.; Heelis, R. A.; Rowland, D.

2012-01-01

The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically under-sampled regions. This study will present averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) Mission of Opportunity on the C/NOFS satellite. The results will be compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.

Solar minimum Lyman alpha sky background observations from Pioneer Venus orbiter ultraviolet spectrometer - Solar wind latitude variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ajello, J. M.

1990-01-01

Measurements of interplanetary H I Lyman alpha over a large portion of the celestial sphere were made at the recent solar minimum by the Pioneer Venus orbiter ultraviolet spectrometer. These measurements were performed during a series of spacecraft maneuvers conducted to observe Halley's comet in early 1986. Analysis of these data using a model of the passage of interstellar wind hydrogen through the solar system shows that the rate of charge exchange with solar wind protons is 30 percent less over the solar poles than in the ecliptic. This result is in agreement with a similar experiment performed with Mariner 10 at the previous solar minimum.

Solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure between 1973 and 1985 observed with the interplanetary scintillation method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kojima, M.; Kakinuma, T.

1987-07-01

The solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure was studied for the years from 1973 to 1985 on a basis of interplanetary scintillation observations using a new method for mapping solar wind speed to the source surface. The major minimum-speed regions are distributed along a neutral line through the whole period of a solar cycle: when solar activity is low, they are distributed on the wavy neutral line along the solar equator; in the active phase they also tend to be distributed along the neutral line, which has a large latitudinal amplitude. The minimum-speed regions tend to be distributedmore » not only along the neutral line but also at low magnetic intensity regions and/or coronal bright regions which do not correspond to the neutral line. As the polar high-speed regions extend equatorward around the minimum phase, the latitudinal gradient of speed increases at the boundaries of the low-speed region, and the width of the low-speed region decreases. One or two years before the minimum of solar activity, two localized minimum-speed regions appear on the neutral line, and their locations are longitudinally separated by 180. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987« less

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

1993-01-01

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Using Global Total Electron Content to Understand Interminimum Changes in Solar EUV Irradiance and Thermospheric Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, S. E.; Emmert, J. T.; Krall, J.; Mannucci, A. J.; Vergados, P.

2017-12-01

To understand how and why the distribution of geospace plasma in the ionosphere/plasmasphere is evolving over multi-decadal time scales in response to solar, heliospheric and atmospheric forcing, it is critically important to have long-term, stable datasets. In this study, we use a newly constructed dataset of GPS-based total electron content (TEC) developed by JPL. The JPL Global Ionosphere Mapping (GIM) algorithm was used to generate a 35-station dataset spanning two solar minimum periods (1993-2014). We also use altimeter-derived TEC measurements from TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason-1 to construct a continuous dataset for the 1995-2014 time period. Both longterm datasets are compared to each other to study interminimum changes in the global TEC (during 1995-1995 and 2008-2009). We use the SAMI3 physics-based model of the ionosphere to compare the simulations of 1995-2014 with the JPL TEC and TOPEX/Jason-1 datasets. To drive SAMI3, we use the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) model to specify the EUV irradiances, and NRLMSIS to specify the thermosphere. We adjust the EUV irradiances and thermospheric constituents to match the TEC datasets and draw conclusions regarding sources of the differences between the two solar minimum periods.

A solar cycle dependence of nonlinearity in magnetospheric activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

2005-04-01

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical Kp data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant-based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original Kp data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maxima. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to 1 week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VBs, and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics, suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

Little or no solar wind enters Venus' atmosphere at solar minimum.

PubMed

Zhang, T L; Delva, M; Baumjohann, W; Auster, H-U; Carr, C; Russell, C T; Barabash, S; Balikhin, M; Kudela, K; Berghofer, G; Biernat, H K; Lammer, H; Lichtenegger, H; Magnes, W; Nakamura, R; Schwingenschuh, K; Volwerk, M; Vörös, Z; Zambelli, W; Fornacon, K-H; Glassmeier, K-H; Richter, I; Balogh, A; Schwarzl, H; Pope, S A; Shi, J K; Wang, C; Motschmann, U; Lebreton, J-P

2007-11-29

Venus has no significant internal magnetic field, which allows the solar wind to interact directly with its atmosphere. A field is induced in this interaction, which partially shields the atmosphere, but we have no knowledge of how effective that shield is at solar minimum. (Our current knowledge of the solar wind interaction with Venus is derived from measurements at solar maximum.) The bow shock is close to the planet, meaning that it is possible that some solar wind could be absorbed by the atmosphere and contribute to the evolution of the atmosphere. Here we report magnetic field measurements from the Venus Express spacecraft in the plasma environment surrounding Venus. The bow shock under low solar activity conditions seems to be in the position that would be expected from a complete deflection by a magnetized ionosphere. Therefore little solar wind enters the Venus ionosphere even at solar minimum.

The Plasma Environment Associated With Equatorial Ionospheric Irregularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Jonathon M.; Heelis, R. A.

2018-02-01

We examine the density structure of equatorial depletions referred to here as equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). Data recorded by the Ion Velocity Meter as part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) aboard the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are used to study EPBs from 1600 to 0600 h local time at altitudes from 350 to 850 km. The data are taken during the 7 years from 2008 to 2014, more than one half of a magnetic solar cycle, that include solar minimum and a moderate solar maximum. Using a rolling ball algorithm, EPBs are identified by profiles in the plasma density, each having a depth measured as the percent change between the background and minimum density (ΔN/N). During solar moderate activity bubbles observed in the topside postsunset sector are more likely to have large depths compared to those observed in the topside postmidnight sector. Large bubble depths can be observed near 350 km in the bottomside F region in the postsunset period. Conversely at solar minimum the distribution of depths is similar in the postsunset and postmidnight sectors in all longitude sectors. Deep bubbles are rarely observed in the topside postsunset sector and never in the bottomside above 400 km in altitude. We suggest that these features result from the vertical drift of the plasma for these two solar activity levels. These drift conditions affect both the background density in which bubbles are embedded and the growth rate of perturbations in the bottomside where bubbles originate.

Solar cycle variability of nonmigrating tides in the infrared cooling of the thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nischal, N.; Oberheide, J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marsh, D. R.

2017-12-01

Nitric Oxide (NO) at 5.3 μm and Carbon dioxide (CO2) at 15 μm are the major infrared emissions responsible for the radiative cooling of the thermosphere. We study the impact of two important diurnal nonmigrating tides, the DE2 and DE3, on NO and CO2 infrared emissions over a complete solar cycle (2002-2013) by (i) analyzing NO and CO2 cooling rate data from SABER and (ii) photochemical modeling using dynamical tides from a thermospheric empirical tidal model, CTMT. Both observed and modeled results show that the NO cooling rate amplitudes for DE2 and DE3 exhibit strong solar cycle dependence. NO 5.3 μm cooling rate tides are relatively unimportant for the infrared energy budget during solar minimum but important during solar maximum. On the other hand DE2 and DE3 in CO2 show comparatively small variability over a solar cycle. CO2 15 μm cooling rate tides remain, to a large extent, constant between solar minimum and maximum. This different responses by NO and CO2 emissions to the DE2 and DE3 during a solar cycle comes form the fact that the collisional reaction rate for NO is highly sensitive to the temperature comparative to that for CO2. Moreover, the solar cycle variability of these nonmigrating tides in thermospheric infrared emissions shows a clear QBO signals substantiating the impact of tropospheric weather system on the energy budget of the thermosphere. The relative contribution from the individual tidal drivers; temperature, density and advection to the observed DE2 and DE3 tides does not vary much over the course of the solar cycle, and this is true for both NO and CO2 emissions.

A Comparison of Structurally Connected and Multiple Spacecraft Interferometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Surka, Derek M.; Crawley, Edward F.

1996-01-01

Structurally connected and multiple spacecraft interferometers are compared in an attempt to establish the maximum baseline (referred to as the "cross-over baseline") for which it is preferable to operate a single-structure interferometer in space rather than an interferometer composed of numerous, smaller spacecraft. This comparison is made using the total launched mass of each configuration as the comparison metric. A framework of study within which structurally connected and multiple spacecraft interferometers can be compared is presented in block diagram form. This methodology is then applied to twenty-two different combinations of trade space parameters to investigate the effects of different orbits, orientations, truss materials, propellants, attitude control actuators, onboard disturbance sources, and performance requirements on the cross-over baseline. Rotating interferometers and the potential advantages of adding active structural control to the connected truss of the structurally connected interferometer are also examined. The minimum mass design of the structurally connected interferometer that meets all performance-requirements and satisfies all imposed constraints is determined as a function of baseline. This minimum mass design is then compared to the design of the multiple spacecraft interferometer. It is discovered that the design of the minimum mass structurally connected interferometer that meets all performance requirements and constraints in solar orbit is limited by the minimum allowable aspect ratio, areal density, and gage of the struts. In the formulation of the problem used in this study, there is no advantage to adding active structural control to the truss for interferometers in solar orbit. The cross-over baseline for missions of practical duration (ranging from one week to thirty years) in solar orbit is approximately 400 m for non-rotating interferometers and 650 m for rotating interferometers.

Temporal variations in the position of the heliospheric equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obridko, V. N.; Shelting, B. D.

2008-08-01

It is shown that the centroid of the heliospheric equator undergoes quasi-periodic oscillations. During the minimum of the 11-year cycle, the centroid shifts southwards (the so-called bashful-ballerina effect). The direction of the shift reverses during the solar maximum. The solar quadrupole is responsible for this effect. The shift is compared with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet.

Short time variability of solar corona during recent solar cycle minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siarkowski, Marek; Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Sylwester, Janusz; Sylwester, Barbara; Kepa, Anna; Buczkowska, Agnieszka; Kowalinski, Miroslaw

Sphinx is the X-ray spectrophotometer designed to measure X-ray emission from the Sun in the energy range between 0.8 keV and 15 keV. The instrument is placed onboard Russian KORONAS-PHOTON satellite launched on January 30, 2009. In this paper we present the observations of coronal emission obtained between March-April and August-September 2009, i.e. the times towards the end of the last, very prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity. Prompt analysis of SphinX spectra reveal the variability of the average coronal plasma charac-teristics like the temperature and emission measure. These data are used to compare SphinX and GOES measurements, for selected times. Examples of many sub/microflare events with maxima of the X-ray flux, observed much below the GOES sensitivity threshold level will be presented.

The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.; Abreu, J.; Steinhilber, F.

2009-12-01

The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was <1nT at Hale minima during the Spoerer Minimum and late in the Maunder Minimum. The Sun was at a minimum of the Hallstatt (2200yr) cycle of activity in the 15th century, and is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence suggests that there was a greater production of impulsive solar energetic particle events in the solar cycles of reduced solar activity 1880-1910. Based on these observations, three scenarios for the next several decades will be outlined- (a) a single, deep sunspot minimum followed by an active sun; (b) several cycles of reduced solar activity similar to 1880-1910; and (c) a “Grand Minimum” with one or more 11 year cycles of very low activity similar to the Dalton Minimum.

Structure and Dynamics of the 2009 July 22 Eclipse White-light Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, J. M.; Rušin, V.; Saniga, M.; Druckmüllerová, H.; Babcock, B. A.

2011-11-01

The white-light corona (WLC) during the total solar eclipse of 2009 July 22 was observed by several teams in the Moon's shadow stretching from India and China across the Pacific Ocean with its many isolated islands. We present a comparison of the WLC as observed by eclipse teams located in China (Shanghai region) and on the Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands, with observations taken 112 minutes apart, combined with near-simultaneous space observations. The eclipse was observed at the beginning of solar cycle 24, during a deep solar minimum (officially estimated as 2008 December according to the smoothed sunspot number, but very extended). The solar corona shows several different types of features (coronal holes, polar rays, helmet streamers, faint loops, voids, etc.), though it was extremely sparse in streamers as shown from Large-Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph data. No large-scale dynamical phenomena were seen when comparing the observations from the two sites, confirming that the corona was quiescent. We measure a Ludendorff flattening coefficient of 0.238, typical of solar minimum.

Minimal Magnetic States of the Sun and the Solar Wind: Implications for the Origin of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.; von Steiger, R.

2017-09-01

During the last decade it has been proposed that both the Sun and the solar wind have minimum magnetic states, lowest order levels of magnetism that underlie the 11-yr cycle as well as longer-term variability. Here we review the literature on basal magnetic states at the Sun and in the heliosphere and draw a connection between the two based on the recent deep 2008-2009 minimum between cycles 23 and 24. In particular, we consider the implications of the low solar activity during the recent minimum for the origin of the slow solar wind.

Consistency Between SC#21REF Solar XUV Energy Input and the 1973 Pioneer 10 Observations of the Jovian Photoelectron Excited H2 Airglow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gangopadhyay, P.; Ogawa, H. S.; Judge, D. L.

1988-01-01

It has been suggested in the literature that the F74113 solar spectrum for the solar minimum condition needs to be modified to explain the production of photoelectrons in the Earth's atmosphere. We have studied here the effect of another solar minimum spectrum, SC#21REF, on the Jovian upper atmosphere emissions and we have compared the predicted photoelectron excited H2 airglow with the 1973 Pioneer 10 observations, analyzed according to the methodology of Shemansky and Judge (1988). In this model calculation we find that in 1973, the Jovian H2 band emissions can be accounted for almost entirely by photoelectron excitation, if the preflight calibration of the Pioneer 10 ultraviolet photometer is adopted. If the SC#21REF flux shortward of 250 A is multiplied by 2 as proposed by Richards and Torr (1988) then the Pioneer 10 calibration and/or the airglow model used must be modified in order to have a self consistent set of observations.

The Mg II h and k lines. II - Comparison with synthesized profiles and Ca II K. [solar spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayres, T. R.; Linsky, J. L.

1976-01-01

Measured high-dispersion center and limb profiles of the solar Mg II h and k resonance lines are compared with synthetic spectra computed with a partial-redistribution formalism and based on several upper-photosphere and lower-chromosphere temperature distributions. Profiles of the analogously formed Ca II K resonance line are also synthesized for the same atmospheric models. The spectrum-synthesis approach is outlined, and the collisional and fixed radiative rates appropriate to the adopted model atoms and solar atmosphere are discussed. It is found that the HSRA and VAL models predict systematically lower intensities in the h, k, and K inner wings than observed and that models with a somewhat higher minimum temperature (about 4450 K) can reproduce the measured inner wings and limb darkening. A 'Ca II' solar model with a minimum temperature of 4450 K is proposed as an alternative to the class of models based on continuum observations.

The Surface Density Distribution in the Solar Nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

2004-01-01

The commonly used minimum mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula is reanalyzed using a new cumulative-mass-model. This model predicts a smoother surface density approximation compared with methods based on direct computation of surface density. The density is quantified using two independent analytical formulations. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the basic planetary data. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the solar nebula data. The latter model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula, and by extension to other extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Inertial Range Turbulence of Fast and Slow Solar Wind at 0.72 AU and Solar Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodorescu, Eliza; Echim, Marius; Munteanu, Costel; Zhang, Tielong; Bruno, Roberto; Kovacs, Peter

2015-05-01

We investigate Venus Express observations of magnetic field fluctuations performed systematically in the solar wind at 0.72 Astronomical Units (AU), between 2007 and 2009, during the deep minimum of solar cycle 24. The power spectral densities (PSDs) of the magnetic field components have been computed for time intervals that satisfy the data integrity criteria and have been grouped according to the type of wind, fast and slow, defined for speeds larger and smaller, respectively, than 450 km s-1. The PSDs show higher levels of power for the fast wind than for the slow. The spectral slopes estimated for all PSDs in the frequency range 0.005-0.1 Hz exhibit a normal distribution. The average value of the trace of the spectral matrix is -1.60 for fast solar wind and -1.65 for slow wind. Compared to the corresponding average slopes at 1 AU, the PSDs are shallower at 0.72 AU for slow wind conditions suggesting a steepening of the solar wind spectra between Venus and Earth. No significant time variation trend is observed for the spectral behavior of both the slow and fast wind.

Wind Observations of Anomalous Cosmic Rays from Solar Minimum to Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, D. V.; McDonald, F. B.

2003-01-01

We report the first observation near Earth of the time behavior of anomalous cosmic-ray N, O, and Ne ions through the period surrounding the maximum of the solar cycle. These observations were made by the Wind spacecraft during the 1995-2002 period spanning times from solar minimum through solar maximum. Comparison of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays provides a powerful tool for the study of the physics of solar modulation throughout the solar cycle.

SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.; Jiang, J., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de

2016-06-01

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 (2.5 ± 1.1 G) is comparable to that observed at the end of Cycle 23 (about 2 G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that Cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not muchmore » higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.« less

Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, Marius M.

2016-04-01

The FP7 project STORM is funded by the European Commission to "add value to existing data bases through a more comprehensive interpretation". STORM targets plasma and magnetic field databases collected in the solar wind (Ulysses and also some planetary missions), planetary magnetospheres (Venus Express, Cluster, a few orbits from Cassini), cometary magnetosheaths (e.g. Haley from Giotto observations). The project applies the same package of analysis methods on geomagnetic field observations from ground and on derived indices (e.g. AE, AL, AU, SYM-H). The analysis strategy adopted in STORM is built on the principle of increasing complexity, from lower (like, e.g., the Power Spectral Density - PSD) to higher order analyses (the Probability Distribution Functions - PDFs, Structure Functions - SFs, Fractals and Multifractals - MFs). Therefore STORM targets not only the spectral behavior of turbulent fluctuations but also their topology and scale behavior inferred from advanced mathematical algorithms and geometrical-like analogs. STORM started in January 2013 and ended in December 2015. We will report on a selection of scientific and technical achievements and will highlight: (1) the radial evolution of solar wind turbulence and intermittency based on Ulysses data with some contributions from Venus Express and Cluster; (2) comparative study of fast and slow wind turbulence and intermittency at solar minimum; (3) comparative study of the planetary response (Venus and Earth magnetosheaths) to turbulent solar wind; (4) the critical behavior of geomagnetic fluctuations and indices; (5) an integrated library for non-linear analysis of time series that includes all the approaches adopted in STORM to investigate solar system plasma turbulence. STORM delivers an unprecedented volume of analysed data for turbulence. The project made indeed a systematic survey, orbit by orbit, of data available from ESA repositories and Principal Investigators and provides results ordered as a function of the targeted system (solar wind/magnetospheres/geomagnetic indices), solar cycle phase (minimum versus maximum), type of result (PSDs, PDFs, Multifractals). The results catalogues, available online from http://www.storm-fp7.eu, include 4094 PSD spectra, 9566 PDFs and 15633 multifractal spectra (from partition function and respectively Rank Ordered (ROMA) formalisms). These results are obtained at solar maximum (2001-2002, both in the solar wind and the terrestrial magnetosheath) and solar minimum (1997-1998 in the solar wind, 2007-2008 in the solar wind, Venus and Earth magnetosheath and selected regions of the magnetosphere). Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM.

Changes in solar quiet magnetic variations since the Maunder Minimum: A comparison of historical observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cnossen, Ingrid; Matzka, Jürgen

2016-10-01

Magnetic measurements going back to the eighteenth century offer a unique opportunity to study multicentennial changes in the upper atmosphere. We analyzed measurements from Rome and Mannheim from May 1782 to May 1783 and measurements from Greenwich, St. Helena, Cape of Good Hope, and Singapore from May 1841 to May 1842. A comparison of the daily magnetic variations in these historical data with modern-day observations from 2010 at nearby stations (where available) showed notable differences in the amplitude and/or phase of the X and Y components. Model simulations indicated that these can be explained at least to some extent by changes in the Earth's main magnetic field. Changes in the main field strength and the northwestward movement of the magnetic equator, in particular in the region of the South Atlantic Anomaly, have caused changes in the positioning, shape, and strength of the equivalent current vortices in the ionosphere that result in the magnetic perturbations on the ground. Differences in solar activity between the historical and modern epochs, which were all near solar minima, were too small to have a notable effect on the ground magnetic perturbations. However, in regions where main magnetic field changes have been relatively small for the last 400 years, e.g., in Singapore, the effects of a long-term increase in solar activity from Maunder Minimum conditions to normal solar minimum conditions (an increase in F10.7 of 35 solar flux units) were comparable to the effects of geomagnetic main field changes.

Unusual behavior of quiet-time zonal and vertical plasma drift velocities over Jicamarca during the recent extended solar minimum of 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ângela M.; Abdu, Mangalathayil A.; Souza, Jonas R.; Batista, Inez S.; Sobral, José H. A.

2017-11-01

The influence of the recent deep and prolonged solar minimum on the daytime zonal and vertical plasma drift velocities during quiet time is investigated in this work. Analyzing the data obtained from incoherent scatter radar from Jicamarca (11.95° S, 76.87° W) we observe an anomalous behavior of the zonal plasma drift during June 2008 characterized by lower than usual daytime westward drift and its early afternoon reversal to eastward. As a case study the zonal drift observed on 24 June 2008 is modeled using a realistic low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model-INPE (SUPIM-INPE). The results show that an anomalously low zonal wind was mainly responsible for the observed anomalous behavior in the zonal drift. A comparative study of the vertical plasma drifts obtained from magnetometer data for some periods of maximum (2000-2002) and minimum solar activity (1998, 2008, 2010) phases reveal a considerable decrease on the E-region conductivity and the dynamo electric field during 2008. However, we believe that the contribution of these characteristics to the unusual behavior of the zonal plasma drift is significantly smaller than that arising from the anomalously low zonal wind. The SUPIM-INPE result of the critical frequency of the F layer (foF2) over Jicamarca suggested a lower radiation flux than that predicted by solar irradiance model (SOLAR2000) for June 2008.

Solar Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopresto, James C.; Mathews, John; Manross, Kevin

1995-12-01

Calcium K plage, H alpha plage and sunspot area have been monitored daily on the INTERNET since November of 1992. The plage and sunspot area have been measured by image processing. The purpose of the project is to investigate the degree of correlation between plage area and solar irradiance. The plage variation shows the expected variation produced by solar rotation and the longer secular changes produced by the solar cycle. The H alpha and sunspot plage area reached a minimum in about late 1994 or early 1995. This is in agreement with the K2 spectral index obtained daily from Sacramento Peak Observatory. The Calcium K plage area minimum seems delayed with respect to the others mentioned above. The minimum of the K line plage area is projected to come within the last few months of 1995.

A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

2005-03-08

The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solarmore » minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.« less

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 - 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 - 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Deland, M. T.; Floyd, L. E.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 - 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.

Radiation Risks From A Weak Field in the Coming Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmanifard, F.; Schwadron, N.; Smith, C. W.; Joyce, C. J.; Townsend, L.

2017-12-01

Recent solar conditions, including a prolonged solar minimum (2005-2009) and the recent small solar maximum, indicate that we are entering an era of lower solar activity than observed at other times during the space age- possibly similar to the past solar grand minima. During such periods of extremely low activity, the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) increase dramatically and limit the allowable days for human space missions. We use data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to examine the correlation between the heliospheric magnetic field at 1AU and the modulation potential of the GCRs. We apply past grand solar minima conditions, including the Maunder minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton minimum (1790-1830), to predict the modulation potential and the dose rates of the GCRs throughout the next solar cycle. The heliospheric magnetic field can drop to 4.21 (3.72) nT, leading to a modulation potential of 448.51 (235.96) MV and dose rates as high as 11.72 (16.68) cGy/yr for the case of conditions similar to the Dalton minimum (Maunder minimum). We use these results to predict the most conservative estimations of the time to 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) and the allowable mission durations in interplanetary space.

Solar-Iss a New Solar Reference Spectrum Covering the Far UV to the Infrared (165 to 3088 Nm) Based on Reanalyzed Solar/solspec Cycle 24 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, L.; Meftah, M.; Irbah, A.; Hauchecorne, A.; Bekki, S.; Bolsée, D.; Pereira, N.; Sluse, D.; Cessateur, G.

2017-12-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017, the SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECtrometer) spectro-radiometer of the SOLAR facility on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements, unique by their large spectral coverage and long time range, are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry), noticeably through the "top-down" mechanism amplifying ultraviolet (UV) solar forcing effects on the climate (UV affects stratospheric dynamics and temperatures, altering interplanetary waves and weather patterns both poleward and downward to the lower stratosphere and troposphere regions). SOLAR/SOLSPEC, with almost 9 years of observations covering the essential of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum, allowed to establish new reference solar spectra from UV to IR (165 to 3088 nm) at minimum (beginning of mission) and maximum of activity. The complete reanalysis was possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and advanced procedures to account for thermal, aging and pointing corrections. The high quality and sensitivity of SOLSPEC data allow to follow temporal variability in UV but also in visible along the cycle. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and results, absolute reference spectra and variability, are compared with other measurements (WHI, ATLAS-3, SCIAMACHY, SORCE/SOLSTICE, SORCE/SIM) and models (SATIRE-S, NRLSSI, NESSY)

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E.; Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make itmore » timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier HCS in the north than the south, associated with the early reversal of the polar magnetic field in the north relative to the south.« less

Deep Solar Activity Minimum 2007-2009: Solar Wind Properties and Major Effects on the Terrestrial Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrugia, C. J.; Harris, B.; Leitner, M.; Moestl, C.; Galvin, A. B.; Simunac, K. D. C.; Torbert, R. B.; Temmer, M. B.; Veronig, A. M.; Erkaev, N. V.;

Analysis of regression methods for solar activity forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundquist, C. A.; Vaughan, W. W.

1979-01-01

The paper deals with the potential use of the most recent solar data to project trends in the next few years. Assuming that a mode of solar influence on weather can be identified, advantageous use of that knowledge presumably depends on estimating future solar activity. A frequently used technique for solar cycle predictions is a linear regression procedure along the lines formulated by McNish and Lincoln (1949). The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the behavior of such regression methods relative to the following aspects: cycle minimum, time into cycle, composition of historical data base, and unnormalized vs. normalized solar cycle data. Comparative solar cycle forecasts for several past cycles are presented as to these aspects of the input data. Implications for the current cycle, No. 21, are also given.

Solar activities and Climate change hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hady, A. A., II

2014-12-01

Throughout the geological history of Earth, climate change is one of the recurrent natural hazards. In recent history, the impact of man brought about additional climatic change. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary, both solar activities and building-up of green-house gases effect added to the climatic changes. This paper discusses if the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the Modern Dalton Minimum (MDM) which stated that starting from year 2005 for the next 40 years; the earth's surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum (c. 210 y ago), will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that now we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years. Keywords: Solar activities; solar cycles; palaeoclimatic changes; Global cooling; Modern Dalton Minimum.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

An Improved Radiative Transfer Model for Climate Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, Robert W.; Mlawer, Eli J.; Sokolik, Irina N.; Clough, Shepard A.; Toon, Owen B.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a radiative transfer model that has been developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. The model is designed to be included in numerical climate models To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. As the thermal spectrum has been treated in other publications, we focus here on the solar part of the spectrum. We perform several example calculations focussing on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols.

A cellular glass substrate solar concentrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedard, R.; Bell, D.

1980-01-01

The design of a second generation point focusing solar concentration is discussed. The design is based on reflective gores fabricated of thin glass mirror bonded continuously to a contoured substrate of cellular glass. The concentrator aperture and structural stiffness was optimized for minimum concentrator cost given the performance requirement of delivering 56 kWth to a 22 cm diameter receiver aperture with a direct normal insolation of 845 watts sq m and an operating wind of 50 kmph. The reflective panel, support structure, drives, foundation and instrumentation and control subsystem designs, optimized for minimum cost, are summarized. The use of cellular glass as a reflective panel substrate material is shown to offer significant weight and cost advantages compared to existing technology materials.

({The) Solar System Large Planets influence on a new Maunder Miniμm}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2016-04-01

In 1890´s G. Spörer and E. W. Maunder (1890) reported that the solar activity stopped in a period of 70 years from 1645 to 1715. Later a reconstruction of the solar activity confirms the grand minima Maunder (1640-1720), Spörer (1390-1550), Wolf (1270-1340), and the minima Oort (1010-1070) and Dalton (1785-1810) since the year 1000 A.D. (Usoskin et al. 2007). These minimum periods have been associated with less irradiation from the Sun and cold climate periods on Earth. An identification of a three grand Maunder type periods and two Dalton type periods in a period thousand years, indicates that sooner or later there will be a colder climate on Earth from a new Maunder- or Dalton- type period. The cause of these minimum periods, are not well understood. An expected new Maunder-type period is based on the properties of solar variability. If the solar variability has a deterministic element, we can estimate better a new Maunder grand minimum. A random solar variability can only explain the past. This investigation is based on the simple idea that if the solar variability has a deterministic property, it must have a deterministic source, as a first cause. If this deterministic source is known, we can compute better estimates the next expected Maunder grand minimum period. The study is based on a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700, a TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 A.D., sunspot data series from 1611 and a Solar Barycenter orbit data series from 1000. The analysis method is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis, to identify stationary periods, coincidence periods and their phase relations. The result shows that the TSI variability and the sunspots variability have deterministic oscillations, controlled by the large planets Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, as the first cause. A deterministic model of TSI variability and sunspot variability confirms the known minimum and grand minimum periods since 1000. From this deterministic model we may expect a new Maunder type sunspot minimum period from about 2018 to 2055. The deterministic model of a TSI ACRIM data series from 1700 computes a new Maunder type grand minimum period from 2015 to 2071. A model of the longer TSI ACRIM data series from 1000 computes a new Dalton to Maunder type minimum irradiation period from 2047 to 2068.

Simulating Cyclic Evolution of Coronal Magnetic Fields using a Potential Field Source Surface Model Coupled with a Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, A.; Dikpati, M.; Burkepile, J.; de Toma, G.

2013-12-01

The structure of the Sun's corona varies with solar cycle, from a near spherical symmetry at solar maximum to an axial dipole at solar minimum. Why does this pattern occur? It is widely accepted that large-scale coronal structure is governed by magnetic fields, which are most likely generated by the dynamo action in the solar interior. In order to understand the variation in coronal structure, we couple a potential field source surface model with a cyclic dynamo model. In this coupled model, the magnetic field inside the convection zone is governed by the dynamo equation and above the photosphere these dynamo-generated fields are extended from the photosphere to the corona by using a potential field source surface model. Under the assumption of axisymmetry, the large-scale poloidal fields can be written in terms of the curl of a vector potential. Since from the photosphere and above the magnetic diffusivity is essentially infinite, the evolution of the vector potential is given by Laplace's Equation, the solution of which is obtained in the form of a first order Associated Legendre Polynomial. By taking linear combinations of these polynomial terms, we find solutions that match more complex coronal structures. Choosing images of the global corona from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory at each Carrington rotation over half a cycle (1986-1991), we compute the coefficients of the Associated Legendre Polynomials up to degree eight and compare with observation. We reproduce some previous results that at minimum the dipole term dominates, but that this term fades with the progress of the cycle and higher order multipole terms begin to dominate. We find that the amplitudes of these terms are not exactly the same in the two limbs, indicating that there is some phi dependence. Furthermore, by comparing the solar minimum corona during the past three minima (1986, 1996, and 2008), we find that, while both the 1986 and 1996 minima were dipolar, the minimum in 2008 was unusual, as there was departure from a dipole. In order to investigate the physical cause of this departure from dipole, we implement north-south asymmetry in the surface source of the magnetic fields in our model, and find that such n/s asymmetry in solar cycle could be one of the reasons for this departure. This work is partially supported by NASA's LWS grant with award number NNX08AQ34G. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF.

Peculiarities of cosmic ray modulation in the solar minimum 23/24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alania, M. V.; Modzelewska, R.; Wawrzynczak, A.

2014-06-01

We study changes of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity for the ending period of the solar cycle 23 and the beginning of the solar cycle 24 using neutron monitors experimental data. We show that an increase of the GCR intensity in 2009 is generally related with decrease of the solar wind velocity U, the strength B of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the drift in negative (A < 0) polarity epoch. We present that temporal changes of rigidity dependence of the GCR intensity variation, before reaching maximum level in 2009 and after it, do not noticeably differ from each other. The rigidity spectrum of the GCR intensity variations calculated based on neutron monitors data (for rigidities > 10 GV) is hard in the minimum and near-minimum epoch. We do not recognize any nonordinary changes in the physical mechanism of modulation of the GCR intensity in the rigidity range of GCR particles to which neutron monitors respond. We compose 2-D nonstationary model of transport equation to describe variations of the GCR intensity for 1996-2012 including the A > 0 (1996-2001) and the A < 0 (2002-2012) periods; diffusion coefficient of cosmic rays for rigidity 10-15 GV is increased by 30% in 2009 (A < 0) comparing with 1996 (A > 0). We believe that the proposed model is relatively realistic, and obtained results are satisfactorily compatible with neutron monitors data.

Fluctuations in Tree Ring Cellulose d18O during the Little Ice Age Correlate with Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Y. T.; Yokoyama, Y.; Miyahara, H.; Nakatsuka, T.

2008-12-01

The Maunder Minimum (AD1645-1715), when sunspots became exceedingly rare, is known to coincide with the coldest period during the Little Ice Age. This is a useful period to investigate possible linkage between solar activity and climate because variation in solar activity was different from that of today. The solar cycle length was longer (14 and 28 years) than that of today (11 and 22 years) hence any climate archives that have similar periodic changes could be separated from other internal climate forcing. We have reported that Greenland temperature variations coincided with decadal-scale variability in solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (Miyahara et al. 2008). Here we report interannual and intra-annual relative humidity (RH) variations in central Japan during that period, using tree ring cellulose d18O in a 382-year-old Japanese cedar tree (Cryptomeria japonica). The isotopic composition of tree rings can be a powerful tool to study the relationship between solar activity and climate, because we can directly compare solar activity (D14C) and climate (d18O) with little dating error. The climate proxy obtained using tree ring cellulose d18O is correlated both negatively and positively with RH and d18O in precipitation, respectively. Since d18O in precipitation is negatively correlated with the amount of precipitation in the monsoon area, tree ring cellulose d18O can be a reliable proxy for past RH and/or amount of precipitation in the area of the interest. Tree ring cellulose d18O of the cedar tree during AD1938-1998 in fact correlates significantly with the mean RH in June in central Japan. Tree ring d18O inferred RH variability during the Maunder Minimum shows distinct high RH spikes with an approximate 14-year quasiperiodicity. All nine solar minima during AD1640-1756 deduced from tree ring D14C coincided with high RH spikes, and seven of which coincided within 1-year. Interannual RH variations also coincided with Greenland temperature during this period. These results suggest that weakening of solar activity at solar minima caused distinct hemispheric scale climate change during the Maunder Minimum. We discuss the mechanism in which the solar activity variation caused the climate change, based on intra-annual RH variability and further data analysis of interannual RH variability. H. Miyahara et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 272, 1-2, 290-295 (2008).

Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. B.; Vazquez, M. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Kim, M.-H. Y.

1997-01-01

It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of some interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus (100 mm2 area) are that the probability of any given cell nucleus being hit decreases from 10 percent at solar minimum to 6 percent at solar maximum for particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. We conclude that this modest decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) is not a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars.

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Barbara J.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Schroeder, Peter C.; Webb, David F.; Arge, Charles N.; Bisi, Mario M.; de Toma, Giuliana; Emery, Barbara A.; Galvin, Antoinette B.; Haber, Deborah A.;

Improvement of solar-cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Imada, S.; Kusano, K.; Shiota, D.

2017-11-01

Aims: We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar-cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods: We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric synoptic magnetogram observed by the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), and the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We also use the SFT model for the interpretation and prediction of the observed axial dipole moment. Results: We find that the observed axial dipole moment becomes approximately constant during the period of several years before each cycle minimum, which we call the axial dipole moment plateau. The cross-equatorial magnetic flux transport is found to be small during the period, although a significant number of sunspots are still emerging. The results indicate that the newly emerged magnetic flux does not contribute to the build up of the axial dipole moment near the end of each cycle. This is confirmed by showing that the time variation of the observed axial dipole moment agrees well with that predicted by the SFT model without introducing new emergence of magnetic flux. These results allow us to predict the axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum using the SFT model without introducing new flux emergence. The predicted axial dipole moment at the Cycle 24/25 minimum is 60-80 percent of Cycle 23/24 minimum, which suggests the amplitude of Cycle 25 is even weaker than the current Cycle 24. Conclusions: The plateau of the solar axial dipole moment is an important feature for the longer-term prediction of the solar cycle based on the SFT model.

Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.

1990-01-01

Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.

2011-01-01

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

Prediction of the total cycle 24 of solar activity by several autoregressive methods and by the precursor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Breus, T. K.; Obridko, V. N.

2012-12-01

As follows from the statement of the Third Official Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel created by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) based on the results of an analysis of many solar cycle 24 predictions, there has been no consensus on the amplitude and time of the maximum. There are two different scenarios: 90 units and August 2012 or 140 units and October 2011. The aim of our study is to revise the solar cycle 24 predictions by a comparative analysis of data obtained by three different methods: the singular spectral method, the nonlinear neural-based method, and the precursor method. As a precursor for solar cycle 24, we used the dynamics of the solar magnetic fields forming solar spots with Wolf numbers Rz. According to the prediction on the basis of the neural-based approach, it was established that the maximum of solar cycle 24 is expected to be 70. The precursor method predicted 50 units for the amplitude and April of 2012 for the time of the maximum. In view of the fact that the data used in the precursor method were averaged over 4.4 years, the amplitude of the maximum can be 20-30% larger (i.e., around 60-70 units), which is close to the values predicted by the neural-based method. The protracted minimum of solar cycle 23 and predicted low values of the maximum of solar cycle 24 are reminiscent of the historical Dalton minimum.

A new solar reference spectrum from 165 to 3088 nm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damé, Luc; Meftah, Mustapha; Bolsée, David; Pereira, Nuno; Bekki, Slimane; Hauchecorne, Alain; Irbah, Abdenour; Cessateur, Gaël; Sluse, Dominique

2017-04-01

Since April 5, 2008 and until February 15, 2017 the SOLAR/SOLSPEC spectro-radiometer on the International Space Station performed accurate measurements of Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) from the far ultraviolet to the infrared (165 nm to 3088 nm). These measurements are of primary importance for a better understanding of solar physics and of the impact of solar variability on climate (via Earth's atmospheric photochemistry). In particular, a new reference solar spectrum is established covering most of the unusual solar cycle 24 from minimum in 2008 to maximum. Temporal variability in the UV (165 to 400 nm) is presented in several wavelengths bands. These results are possible thanks to revised engineering corrections, improved calibrations and new procedures to account for thermal and aging advanced corrections. Uncertainties on these measurements are evaluated and compare favorably with other instruments.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal ( 0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Tao, J.; Zong, Q.; Li, G.; Salem, C. S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; He, J.; Tu, C.; Bale, S. D.

2016-12-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND/3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Quiet-time Suprathermal (~0.1-1.5 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Salem, Chadi S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart D.

2016-03-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff. We also calculate the number density n and average energy Eavg of strahl and halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ˜0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity).

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emery, Barbara A.; Richardson, Ian G.; Evans, David S.; Rich, Frederick J.; Wilson, Gordon R.

2011-01-01

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from S to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005 -2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (approx.1980, approx.1990, and approx. 2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995-1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27 -day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the > 2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A(sub p)/K(sub p) magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A(sub p)/K(sub p) currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21. [graphs (charts)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, K. H.; Scherrer, P. H.; Svalgaard, L.; Wilcox, J. M.

1978-01-01

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

The structure of the inner heliosphere from Pioneer Venus and IMP observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gazis, P. R.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Lazarus, A. J.

1992-01-01

The IMP 8 and Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft explore the region of heliographic latitudes between 8 deg N and 8 deg S. Solar wind observations from these spacecraft are used to construct synoptic maps of solar wind parameters in this region. These maps provide an explicit picture of the structure of high speed streams near 1 AU and how that structure varies with time. From 1982 until early 1985, solar wind parameters varied little with latitude. During the last solar minimum, the solar wind developed strong latitudinal structure; high speed streams were excluded from the vicinity of the solar equator. Synoptic maps of solar wind speed are compared with maps of the coronal source surface magnetic field. This comparison reveals the expected correlation between solar wind speed near 1 AU, the strength of the coronal magnetic field, and distance from the coronal neutral line.

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; Cliver, E. W.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Parameterized study of the ionospheric modification associated with sun-aligned polar cap arcs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crain, D. J.; Sojka, J. J.; Schunk, R. W.; Zhu, L.

1993-01-01

The local ionospheric modification that is due to a generalized steady state solar aligned (SA) arc structure is addressed. For a representative set of SA arc parameters which includes both convection and precipitation, emphasis is placed on the modification by SA polar cap arcs upon the F region electron density and the height integrated conductivity. At low fluxes and low characteristic energies, SA polar cap arcs have the most pronounced relative effect at F region altitudes in darkness for winter solar minimum conditions. The absolute enhancement in summer solar minimum and winter solar maximum is equivalent to that of winter solar minimum, but the higher ambient densities make the relative enhancement less. The TEC enhancement associated with an SA arc may be used to indicate the degree of plasma cross flow across the arc.

Influence of System Operation Method on CO2 Emissions of PV/Solar Heat/Cogeneration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oke, Shinichiro; Kemmoku, Yoshishige; Takikawa, Hirofumi; Sakakibara, Tateki

A PV/solar heat/cogeneration system is assumed to be installed in a hotel. The system is operated with various operation methods: CO2 minimum operation, fees minimum operation, seasonal operation, daytime operation and heat demand following operation. Of these five operations, the former two are virtual operations that are operated with the dynamic programming method, and the latter three are actual operations. Computer simulation is implemented using hourly data of solar radiation intensity, atmospheric temperature, electric, cooling, heating and hot water supply demands for one year, and the life-cycle CO2 emission and the total cost are calculated for every operations. The calculation results show that the virtual two and the actual three operations reduce the life-cycle CO2 emission by 21% and 13% compared with the conventional system, respectively. In regard to both the CO2 emission and the cost, there is no significant difference between the virtual two operation methods or among actual three operation methods.

SphinX Measurements of the 2009 Solar Minimum X-Ray Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylwester, J.; Kowalinski, M.; Gburek, S.; Siarkowski, M.; Kuzin, S.; Farnik, F.; Reale, F.; Phillips, K. J. H.; Bakała, J.; Gryciuk, M.; Podgorski, P.; Sylwester, B.

2012-06-01

The SphinX X-ray spectrophotometer on the CORONAS-PHOTON spacecraft measured soft X-ray emission in the 1-15 keV energy range during the deep solar minimum of 2009 with a sensitivity much greater than GOES. Several intervals are identified when the X-ray flux was exceptionally low, and the flux and solar X-ray luminosity are estimated. Spectral fits to the emission at these times give temperatures of 1.7-1.9 MK and emission measures between 4 × 1047 cm-3 and 1.1 × 1048 cm-3. Comparing SphinX emission with that from the Hinode X-ray Telescope, we deduce that most of the emission is from general coronal structures rather than confined features like bright points. For one of 27 intervals of exceptionally low activity identified in the SphinX data, the Sun's X-ray luminosity in an energy range roughly extrapolated to that of ROSAT (0.1-2.4 keV) was less than most nearby K and M dwarfs.

The cosmic radiation in the heliosphere at successive solar minima

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdonald, Frank B.; Moraal, Harm; Reinecke, J. P. L.; Lal, Nand; Mcguire, Robert E.

1992-01-01

Cosmic ray observations at 1 AU are compared for the last three solar minimum periods along with the 1977/1989 and 1987 Pioneer 10 and Voyager 1 and 2 data from the outer heliosphere. There is good agreement between the 1965 and 1987 Galactic cosmic ray H and He spectra at 1 AU. Significant and complex differences are found between the 1977/1978 and 1987 measurements of the Galactic and anomalous cosmic ray components at 1 and 15 AU. In the outer heliosphere there are negative latitudinal gradients that reach their maximum magnitude when the inclination of the outer heliosphere current sheet is at a minimum. The radial gradients decrease with heliocentric distance as about 1/r exp 0.7 and do not differ significantly at the successive solar minima. The measured radial and latitudinal gradients are used to estimate the particle transport parameters in the outer heliosphere. Using the local interstellar He spectrum of Webber et al. (1987), it is estimated that the modulation boundary is of the order of 160 AU.

Improvement and Application of Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Models for Prediction of the Climatic Effects of Aerosol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, Robert W.; Mlawer, Eli J.; Sokolik, Irina N.; Clough, Shepard A.; Toon, Owen B.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a radiative transfer model that has been developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. The model is designed to be included in numerical climate models. To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. As the thermal spectrum has been treated in other publications, we focus here on the solar part of the spectrum. We perform several example calculations focussing on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols.

Improvement and Application of Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Models for Prediction of the Climatic Effects of Aerosol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, Robert W.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a radiative transfer model that has been developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. The model is designed to be included in numerical climate models. To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. As the thermal spectrum has been treated in other publications we focus here on the solar part of the spectrum. We perform several example calculations focussing on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols.

Dynamics of Trees of Fragmenting Granules in the Quiet Sun: Hinode/SOT Observations Compared to Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malherbe, J.-M.; Roudier, T.; Stein, R.; Frank, Z.

2018-01-01

We compare horizontal velocities, vertical magnetic fields, and the evolution of trees of fragmenting granules (TFG, also named families of granules) derived in the quiet Sun at disk center from observations at solar minimum and maximum of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT on board Hinode) and results of a recent 3D numerical simulation of the magneto-convection. We used 24-hour sequences of a 2D field of view (FOV) with high spatial and temporal resolution recorded by the SOT Broad band Filter Imager (BFI) and Narrow band Filter Imager (NFI). TFG were evidenced by segmentation and labeling of continuum intensities. Horizontal velocities were obtained from local correlation tracking (LCT) of proper motions of granules. Stokes V provided a proxy of the line-of-sight magnetic field (BLOS). The MHD simulation (performed independently) produced granulation intensities, velocity, and magnetic field vectors. We discovered that TFG also form in the simulation and show that it is able to reproduce the main properties of solar TFG: lifetime and size, associated horizontal motions, corks, and diffusive index are close to observations. The largest (but not numerous) families are related in both cases to the strongest flows and could play a major role in supergranule and magnetic network formation. We found that observations do not reveal any significant variation in TFG between solar minimum and maximum.

Scale Height variations with solar cycle in the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Cano, Beatriz; Lester, Mark; Witasse, Olivier; Milan, Stephen E.; Hall, Benjamin E. S.; Cartacci, Marco; Radicella, Sandro M.; Blelly, Pierre-Louis

2015-04-01

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on board the Mars Express spacecraft has been probing the topside of the ionosphere of Mars since June 2005, covering currently almost one solar cycle. A good knowledge of the behaviour of the ionospheric variability for a whole solar period is essential since the ionosphere is strongly dependent on solar activity. Using part of this dataset, covering the years 2005 - 2012, differences in the shape of the topside electron density profiles have been observed. These variations seem to be linked to changes in the ionospheric temperature due to the solar cycle variation. In particular, Mars' ionospheric response to the extreme solar minimum between end-2007 and end-2009 followed a similar pattern to the response observed in the Earth's ionosphere, despite the large differences related to internal origin of the magnetic field between both planets. Plasma parameters such as the scale height as a function of altitude, the main peak characteristics (altitude, density), the total electron content (TEC), the temperatures, and the ionospheric thermal pressures show variations related to the solar cycle. The main changes in the topside ionosphere are detected during the period of very low solar minimum, when ionospheric cooling occurs. The effect on the scale height is analysed in detail. In contrast, a clear increase of the scale height is observed during the high solar activity period due to enhanced ionospheric heating. The scale height variation during the solar cycle has been empirically modelled. The results have been compared with other datasets such as radio-occultation and retarding potential analyser data from old missions, especially in low solar activity periods (e.g. Mariner 4, Viking 1 and 2 landers), as well as with numerical modelling.

Temporal Variability of Atomic Hydrogen From the Mesopause to the Upper Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Liying; Burns, Alan G.; Solomon, Stan S.; Smith, Anne K.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Hunt, Linda A.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Liu, Hanli; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-01-01

We investigate atomic hydrogen (H) variability from the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, on time scales of solar cycle, seasonal, and diurnal, using measurements made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics satellite, and simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended (WACCM-X). In the mesopause region (85 to 95 km), the seasonal and solar cycle variations of H simulated by WACCM-X are consistent with those from SABER observations: H density is higher in summer than in winter, and slightly higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum. However, mesopause region H density from the Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter (National Research Laboratory Mass-Spectrometer-Incoherent-Scatter 00 (NRLMSISE-00)) empirical model has reversed seasonal variation compared to WACCM-X and SABER. From the mesopause to the upper thermosphere, H density simulated by WACCM-X switches its solar cycle variation twice, and seasonal dependence once, and these changes of solar cycle and seasonal variability occur in the lower thermosphere ( 95 to 130 km), whereas H from NRLMSISE-00 does not change solar cycle and seasonal dependence from the mesopause through the thermosphere. In the upper thermosphere (above 150 km), H density simulated by WACCM-X is higher at solar minimum than at solar maximum, higher in winter than in summer, and also higher during nighttime than daytime. The amplitudes of these variations are on the order of factors of 10, 2, and 2, respectively. This is consistent with NRLMSISE-00.

Survey of the spectral properties of turbulence in the solar wind, the magnetospheres of Venus and Earth, at solar minimum and maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, Marius M.

2014-05-01

In the framework of the European FP7 project STORM ("Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals") we analyze the properties of turbulence in various regions of the solar system, for the minimum and respectively maximum of the solar activity. The main scientific objective of STORM is to advance the understanding of the turbulent energy transfer, intermittency and multifractals in space plasmas. Specific analysis methods are applied on magnetic field and plasma data provided by Ulysses, Venus Express and Cluster, as well as other solar system missions (e.g. Giotto, Cassini). In this paper we provide an overview of the spectral properties of turbulence derived from Power Spectral Densities (PSD) computed in the solar wind (from Ulysses, Cluster, Venus Express) and at the interface of planetary magnetospheres with the solar wind (from Venus Express, Cluster). Ulysses provides data in the solar wind between 1992 and 2008, out of the ecliptic, at radial distances ranging between 1.3 and 5.4 AU. We selected only those Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We analyzed Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We investigated Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), the magnetosheath and few crossings of other key magnetospheric regions (cusp, plasma sheet). We organize our PSD results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PSD obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the properties of turbulence for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the spectral similarities and differences between fast and slow wind turbulence. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence, the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence. Research supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM, and a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

QUIET-TIME SUPRATHERMAL (∼0.1–1.5 keV) ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR WIND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, Jiawei; Wang, Linghua; Zong, Qiugang

2016-03-20

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (∼0.1–1.5 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. After separating (beaming) strahl electrons from (isotropic) halo electrons according to their different behaviors in the angular distribution, we fit the observed energy spectrum of both strahl and halo electrons at ∼0.1–1.5 keV to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature T{sub eff}. We also calculate the number density n and average energy E{sub avg} of strahl andmore » halo electrons by integrating the electron measurements between ∼0.1 and 1.5 keV. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and T{sub eff} for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl n and halo n, likely reflecting the nature of the generation of these suprathermal electrons. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. The halo κ is generally smaller than the strahl κ (except during the solar minimum of cycle 23). The strahl n is larger at solar maximum, but the halo n shows no difference between solar minimum and maximum. Both the strahl n and halo n have no clear association with the solar wind core population, but the density ratio between the strahl and halo roughly anti-correlates (correlates) with the solar wind density (velocity)« less

Ion-neutral Coupling During Deep Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Cheryl Y.; Roddy, Patrick A.; Sutton, Eric K.; Stoneback, Russell; Pfaff, Robert F.; Gentile, Louise C.; Delay, Susan H.

2013-01-01

The equatorial ionosphere under conditions of deep solar minimum exhibits structuring due to tidal forces. Data from instruments carried by the Communication Navigation Outage Forecasting System (CNOFS) which was launched in April 2008 have been analyzed for the first 2 years following launch. The Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP), Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) and Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) all detect periodic structures during the 20082010 period which appear to be tides. However when the tidal features detected by these instruments are compared, there are distinctive and significant differences between the observations. Tides in neutral densities measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite were also observed during June 2008. In addition, Broad Plasma Decreases (BPDs) appear as a deep absolute minimum in the plasma and neutral density tidal pattern. These are co-located with regions of large downward-directed ion meridional velocities and minima in the zonal drifts, all on the nightside. The region in which BPDs occur coincides with a peak in occurrence rate of dawn depletions in plasma density observed on the Defense Meterological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft, as well as a minimum in radiance detected by UV imagers on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) and IMAGE satellites

Assessment of solar-assisted gas-fired heat pump systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.

1981-01-01

As a possible application for the Goldstone Energy Project, the performance of a 10 ton heat pump unit using a hybrid solar gas energy source was evaluated in an effort to optimize the solar collector size. The heat pump system is designed to provide all the cooling and/or heating requirements of a selected office building. The system performance is to be augmented in the heating mode by utilizing the waste heat from the power cycle. A simplified system analysis is described to assess and compute interrrelationships of the engine, heat pump, and solar and building performance parameters, and to optimize the solar concentrator/building area ratio for a minimum total system cost. In addition, four alternative heating cooling systems, commonly used for building comfort, are described; their costs are compared, and are found to be less competitive with the gas solar heat pump system at the projected solar equipment costs.

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Solar activity during the deep minimum of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylwester, Janusz; Siarkowski, Marek; Gburek, Szymon; Gryciuk, Magdalena; Kepa, Anna; Kowaliński, Mirosław; Mrozek, Tomek; Phillips, Kenneth J. H.; Podgórski, Piotr; Sylwester, Barbara

2014-12-01

We discuss the character of the unusually deep solar activity minimum of 2009 between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. Levels of solar activity in various parts of the solar atmosphere -- photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona -- were observed to be at their lowest for a century. The soft X-ray emission from the corona (hot outer part of the Sun's atmosphere) was measured throughout most of 2009 with the Polish-built SphinX spectrophotometer. Unlike other X-ray monitoring spacecraft, this sensitive spacecraft-borne instrument was able to continue measurements throughout this extended period of low activity.

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telloni, Daniele; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Antonucci, Ester

2016-03-01

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiggens, Piers; Heynderickx, Daniel; Sandberg, Ingmar; Truscott, Pete; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami

2018-05-01

The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs).

A comparison of solar irradiances measured by SBUV, SME, and rockets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlesinger, Barry M.; Heath, Donald F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) measurements of solar irradiance and predictions from the Mg 280-nm index are compared with each other and with coincident Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and rocket measurements. The SBUV irradiances show a systematic decrease with time not seen in the rocket measurements; a correction for this decrease is introduced. The scatter and overall structure in the SME spectra is 3-5 percent, of the order of or larger than most of the changes predicted by the Mg index. The corrected SBUV ratio and the Mg index prediction for it agree to within 1 percent. Such agreement supports a common origin for variations between solar maximum and minimum and those for individual rotations: the degree to which active regions cover the visible hemisphere of the sun.

UNUSUAL TRENDS IN SOLAR P-MODE FREQUENCIES DURING THE CURRENT EXTENDED MINIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tripathy, S. C.; Jain, K.; Hill, F.

2010-03-10

We investigate the behavior of the intermediate-degree mode frequencies of the Sun during the current extended minimum phase to explore the time-varying conditions in the solar interior. Using contemporaneous helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), we find that the changes in resonant mode frequencies during the activity minimum period are significantly greater than the changes in solar activity as measured by different proxies. We detect a seismic minimum in MDI p-mode frequency shifts during 2008 July-August but no such signature is seen in mean shifts computed from GONG frequencies. We alsomore » analyze the frequencies of individual oscillation modes from GONG data as a function of latitude and observe a signature of the onset of the solar cycle 24 in early 2009. Thus, the intermediate-degree modes do not confirm the onset of the cycle 24 during late 2007 as reported from the analysis of the low-degree Global Oscillations at Low Frequency frequencies. Further, both the GONG and MDI frequencies show a surprising anti-correlation between frequencies and activity proxies during the current minimum, in contrast to the behavior during the minimum between cycles 22 and 23.« less

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

2007-01-01

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

foF2 vs solar indices for the Rome station: Looking for the best general relation which is able to describe the anomalous minimum between cycles 23 and 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perna, L.; Pezzopane, M.

2016-10-01

Analyses of the dependence of the F2layer critical frequency, foF2, on five widely used solar activity indices (F10.7, Lym-α, MgII, R and EUV0.1-50)are carried out considering noon values manually validated at the ionospheric station of Rome (41.8°N, 12.5°E, Italy) between January 1976 and December 2013, a period of time covering the last three solar cycles and including the prolonged and anomalous minimum of solar cycle 23/24 (years 2008-2009). After applying a 1-year running mean to both foF2 and solar activity indices time series, a second order polynomial fitting proves to perform better than a linear one, and this is specifically due to the very low solar activity of the last solar minimum and to the remaining saturation effect characterizing the high solar activity. A comparison between observed and synthetic foF2 values, the latter calculated by using the analytical relations found for every index, and some considerations made on the R parameter introduced by Solomon et al. (2013), suggest that MgII is the best index to describe the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity. Three main reasons justify this result: (1) the good sensibility of MgII to the variations of foF2 for low solar activity; (2) the reduced saturation effect characterizing MgII at high solar activity; (3) the poor influence of the hysteresis effect characterizing MgII at medium solar activity. On the other hand, the F10.7 index, widely used as input parameter for numerous ionospheric models, does not represent properly the last minimum; specifically, it is not able to describe the variations of foF2 under a solar activity level of F10.7=82·10-22 [J Hz-1 s-1 m-2].

Natural variability of tropical upper stratospheric ozone inferred from the Atmosphere Explorer backscatter ultraviolet experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, J. E.; Abrams, R. B.; Dasgupta, R.; Guenther, B.

1981-01-01

Analysis of backscattered ultraviolet radiances observed at tropical latitudes by the Atmosphere Explorer-E satellite reveals both annual and semiannual cycles in upper stratospheric ozone. The annual variation dominates the signal at wavelengths which sense ozone primarily above 45 km while below this, to the lowest altitude sensed, 35 km, the semiannual component has comparable amplitude. Comparison of radiance measurements taken with the same instrument at solar minimum during 1976 and solar maximum in 1979 show no significant differences. This suggests that variations in upper stratospheric ozone over the solar cycle are small, although the data presently available do not allow a definite conclusion.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern hemisphere temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Ribera, Pedro

2003-01-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated - a result assumed up to the moment - but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 14557-14560] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases.

Radial evolution of the solar wind from IMP 8 to Voyager 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, John D.; Paularena, Karolen I.; Lazarus, Alan J.; Belcher, John W.

1995-01-01

Voyager 2 and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 data from 1977 through 1994 are presented and compared. Radial velocity and temperature structures remain intact over the distance from 1 to 43 AU, but density structures do not. Temperature and velocity changes are correlated and nearly in phase at 1 AU, but in the outer heliosphere temperature changes lead velocity changes by tens of days. Solar cycle variations are detected by both spacecraft, with minima in flux density and dynamic pressure near solar maxima. Differences between Voyager 2 and IMP 8 observations near the solar minimum in 1986-1987 are attributed to latitudinal gradients in solar wind properties. Solar rotation variations are often present even at 40 AU. The Voyager 2 temperature profile is best fit with a R(exp -0.49 +/- 0.01) decrease, much less steep than an adiabatic profile.

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Optimal heliocentric trajectories for solar sail with minimum area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhov, Vyacheslav G.

2018-05-01

The fixed-time heliocentric trajectory optimization problem is considered for planar solar sail with minimum area. Necessary optimality conditions are derived, a numerical method for solving the problem is developed, and numerical examples of optimal trajectories to Mars, Venus and Mercury are presented. The dependences of the minimum area of the solar sail from the date of departure from the Earth, the time of flight and the departing hyperbolic excess of velocity are analyzed. In particular, for the rendezvous problem (approaching a target planet with zero relative velocity) with zero departing hyperbolic excess of velocity for a flight duration of 1200 days it was found that the minimum area-to-mass ratio should be about 12 m2/kg for trajectory to Venus, 23.5 m2/kg for the trajectory to Mercury and 25 m2/kg for trajectory to Mars.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Solar activity and oscillation frequency splittings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodard, M. F.; Libbrecht, K. G.

1993-01-01

Solar p-mode frequency splittings, parameterized by the coefficients through order N = 12 of a Legendre polynomial expansion of the mode frequencies as a function of m/L, were obtained from an analysis of helioseismology data taken at Big Bear Solar Observatory during the 4 years 1986 and 1988-1990 (approximately solar minimum to maximum). Inversion of the even-index splitting coefficients confirms that there is a significant contribution to the frequency splittings originating near the solar poles. The strength of the polar contribution is anti correlated with the overall level or solar activity in the active latitudes, suggesting a relation to polar faculae. From an analysis of the odd-index splitting coefficients we infer an uppor limit to changes in the solar equatorial near-surface rotatinal velocity of less than 1.9 m/s (3 sigma limit) between solar minimum and maximum.

A Solar Cycle Prediction Puzzle's PossibleExplanation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhmann, Janet

2007-05-01

A long-standing and intriguing puzzle of the last few decades has been Joan Feynman's (1982) discovery that the solar cycle (sunspot number) maximum trends follow the level of geomagnetic activity during the prior minimum phase. Recently Hathaway (GRL 33, 2006) used this relationship to make a prediction of the size of the next solar maximum. But the physical reason why this should work at all remains a matter of speculation. Although it has been suggested that geomagnetic activity around solar minimum is determined by the terrestrial magnetosphere's response to high speed solar wind streams which seem to often characterize the declining phase of the cycle, why should the occurrence of these streams portend the new solar maximum? Our improving understanding of solar wind sources may hold the key, and also tell us something useful about the solar dynamo.

Solar Modulation of Inner Trapped Belt Radiation Flux as a Function of Atmospheric Density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lodhi, M. A. K.

2005-01-01

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-11-30

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T.; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

2010-01-01

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ14C) and climate (δ18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ18O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum. PMID:21076031

Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24: A Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, N. J.; Jain, R.

2017-12-01

The space weather is largely affected due to explosions on the Sun viz. solar flares and CMEs, which, however, in turn depend upon the magnitude of the solar activity i e. number of sunspots and their magnetic configuration. Owing to these space weather effects, predictions of sunspot cycle are important. Precursor techniques, particularly employing geomagnetic indices, are often used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude of a sunspot cycle. Based on the average geomagnetic activity index aa (since 1868 onwards) for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, Bhatt et al. (2009) made two predictions for sunspot cycle 24 considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum: (i) The annual maximum amplitude would be 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy) indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23, and (ii) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum would be in October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). However, observations reveal that the sunspot minima extended up to 2009, and the maximum amplitude attained is 79, with a monthly mean sunspot number maximum of 102.3 in February 2014. In view of the observations and particularly owing to the extended solar minimum in 2009, we re-examined our prediction model and revised the prediction results. We find that (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 71.2 ± 19.6 and (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months. We discuss our failure and success aspects and present improved predictions for the maximum amplitude as well as for the timing, which are now in good agreement with the observations. Also, we present the limitations of our forecasting in the view of long term predictions. We show if year of sunspot minimum activity and magnitude of geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum are taken correctly then our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator to forecast the sunspot amplitude of the following solar cycle. References:Bhatt, N.J., Jain, R. & Aggarwal, M.: 2009, Sol. Phys. 260, 225

The solar cycle dependence of the location and shape of the Venus bow shock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, T.L.; Luhmann, J.G.; Russell, C.T.

1990-09-01

From initial Pioneer Venus observations during the maximum of solar cycle 21 it was evident that the position of the Venus bow shock varies with solar activity. The bow shock radius in the terminator plane changed from 2.4 R{sub v} to 2.1 R{sub v} as solar activity went from maximum to minimum and, as activity has increased in cycle 22, it has increased again. The recent studies of the subsolar region show that the altitude of the nose of the bow shock varies from 1,600 km at solar minimum to 2,200 km at intermediate solar activity in concert with themore » terminator altitude so that the shape remains constant and only the size varies during the solar cycle. Using a gas dynamic model and the observed bow shock location, the authors infer the variation in the size of the effective obstacle during the solar cycle. At solar maximum, the effective obstacle is larger than the ionopause as if a magnetic barrier exists in the inner magnetosheath. This magnetic barrier acts as the effective obstacle deflecting the magnetosheath plasma about 500 km above the surface of Venus. However, at solar minimum the effective obstacle is well below the subsolar ionopause, and some absorption of the solar wind plasma by the Venus neutral atmosphere is suggested by these observations. The dependence of the solar cycle variation of the shock position on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field reinforces the idea that planetary ion pickup is important in the interaction of the solar wind with Venus.« less

Impact of Rate Design Alternatives on Residential Solar Customer Bills: Increased Fixed Charges, Minimum Bills and Demand-Based Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLaren, Joyce; Davidson, Carolyn; Miller, John

Utilities are proposing changes to residential rate structures to address concerns about lost revenue due to increased adoption of distributed solar generation. An investigation of the impacts of increased fixed charges, minimum bills and residential demand charges on PV and non-PV customer bills suggests that minimum bills more accurately capture utilities' revenue requirement than fixed charges, while not acting as a disincentive to efficiency or negatively impacting low-income customers.

Autumn-winter minimum temperature changes in the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range of northeastern Asia since 1529 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukhvatkina, Olga N.; Omelko, Alexander M.; Zhmerenetsky, Alexander A.; Petrenko, Tatyana Y.

2018-01-01

The aim of our research was to reconstruct climatic parameters (for the first time for the Sikhote-Alin mountain range) and to compare them with global climate fluctuations. As a result, we have found that one of the most important limiting factors for the study area is the minimum temperatures of the previous autumn-winter season (August-December), and this finding perfectly conforms to that in other territories. We reconstructed the previous August-December minimum temperature for 485 years, from 1529 to 2014. We found 12 cold periods (1535-1540, 1550-1555, 1643-1649, 1659-1667, 1675-1689, 1722-1735, 1791-1803, 1807-1818, 1822-1827, 1836-1852, 1868-1887, 1911-1925) and seven warm periods (1560-1585, 1600-1610, 1614-1618, 1738-1743, 1756-1759, 1776-1781, 1944-2014). These periods correlate well with reconstructed data for the Northern Hemisphere and the neighboring territories of China and Japan. Our reconstruction has 3-, 9-, 20-, and 200-year periods, which may be in line with high-frequency fluctuations in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the short-term solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fluctuations, and the 200-year solar activity cycle, respectively. We suppose that the temperature of the North Pacific, expressed by the PDO may make a major contribution to regional climate variations. We also assume that the regional climatic response to solar activity becomes apparent in the temperature changes in the northern part of Pacific Ocean and corresponds to cold periods during the solar minimum. These comparisons show that our climatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronology for this area may potentially provide a proxy record for long-term, large-scale past temperature patterns for northeastern Asia. The reconstruction reflects the global traits and local variations in the climatic processes of the southern territory of the Russian Far East for more than the past 450 years.

Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.

2010-01-01

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.

The radial distribution of cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, F. B.; Fujii, Z.; Heikkila, B.; Lal, N.

2003-08-01

To obtain a more detailed profile of the radial distribution of galactic (GCRs) and anomalous (ACRs) cosmic rays, a unique time in the 11-year solar activity cycle has been selected - that of solar maximum. At this time of minimum cosmic ray intensity a simple, straight-forward normalization technique has been found that allows the cosmic ray data from IMP 8, Pioneer 10 (P-10) and Voyagers 1 and 2 (V1, V2) to be combined for the solar maxima of cycles 21, 22 and 23. This combined distribution reveals a functional form of the radial gradient that varies as G 0/r with G 0 being constant and relatively small in the inner heliosphere. After a transition region between ˜10 and 20 AU, G 0 increases to a much larger value that remains constant between ˜25 and 82 AU. This implies that at solar maximum the changes that produce the 11-year modulation cycle are mainly occurring in the outer heliosphere between ˜15 AU and the termination shock. These observations are not inconsistent with the concept that Global Merged Interaction. regions (GMIRs) are the principal agent of modulation between solar minimum and solar maximum. There does not appear to be a significant change in the amount of heliosheath modulation occurring between the 1997 solar minimum and the cycle 23 solar maximum.

Solar corona electron density distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, P. B.; Edenhofer, P.; Lueneburg, E.

1980-07-01

The paper discusses the three and one-half months of single-frequency time delay data which were acquired from the Helios 2 spacecraft around the time of its solar occultation. The excess time delay due to integrated effect of free electrons along the signal's ray path could be separated and modeled following the determination of the spacecraft trajectory. An average solar corona and equatorial electron density profile during solar minimum were deduced from the time delay measurements acquired within 5-60 solar radii of the sun. As a point of reference at 10 solar radii from the sun, an average electron density was 4500 el/cu cm. However, an asymmetry was found in the electron density as the ray path moved from the west to east solar limb. This may be related to the fact that during entry into occultation the heliographic latitude of the ray path was about 6 deg, while during exit it was 7 deg. The Helios density model is compared with similar models deduced from different experimental techniques.

MODULATION OF GALACTIC ELECTRONS IN THE HELIOSPHERE DURING THE UNUSUAL SOLAR MINIMUM OF 2006–2009: A MODELING APPROACH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Potgieter, M. S.; Vos, E. E.; Munini, R.

The last solar minimum activity period, and the consequent minimum modulation conditions for cosmic rays, was unusual. The highest levels of Galactic protons were recorded at Earth in late 2009 in contrast to expectations. A comprehensive model was used to study the proton modulation for the period from 2006 to 2009 in order to determine what basic processes were responsible for solar modulation during this period and why it differs from proton modulation during previous solar minimum modulation periods. This established model is now applied to studying the solar modulation of electron spectra as observed for 80 MeV–30 GeV bymore » the PAMELA space detector from mid-2006 to the end of 2009. Over this period the heliospheric magnetic field had decreased significantly until the end of 2009 while the waviness of the heliospheric current sheet decreased moderately and the observed electron spectra increased by a factor of ∼1.5 at 1.0 GeV to ∼3.5 at 100 MeV. In order to reproduce the modulation evident from seven consecutive semesters, the diffusion coefficients had to increase moderately while maintaining the basic rigidity dependence. It is confirmed that the main diffusion coefficients are independent of rigidity below ∼0.5 GV, while the drift coefficient had to be reduced below this value. The 2006–2009 solar minimum epoch indeed was different than previously observed minima, at least since the beginning of the space exploration era. This period could be called “diffusion-dominated” as was also found for the modulation of protons.« less

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycles 22-24: Analysis and physical interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinin, M. S.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Krainev, M. B.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevsky, N. S.; Starodubtsev, S. A.

2017-09-01

This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd-24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008-2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2-μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd-24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.

The effect of atmospheric drag on the design of solar-cell power systems for low Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyser, A. C.

1983-01-01

The feasibility of reducing the atmospheric drag of low orbit solar powered satellites by operating the solar-cell array in a minimum-drag attitude, rather than in the conventional Sun pointing attitude was determined. The weights of the solar array, the energy storage batteries, and the fuel required to overcome the drag of the solar array for a range of design life times in orbit were considered. The drag of the array was estimated by free molecule flow theory, and the system weights were calculated from unit weight estimates for 1990 technology. The trailing, minimum drag system was found to require 80% more solar array area, and 30% more battery capacity, the system weights for reasonable life times were dominated by the thruster fuel requirements.

Solar wind structure suggested by bimodal correlations of solar wind speed and density between the spacecraft SOHO and Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogilvie, K. W.; Coplan, M. A.; Roberts, D. A.; Ipavich, F.

2007-08-01

We calculate the cross-spacecraft maximum lagged-cross-correlation coefficients for 2-hour intervals of solar wind speed and density measurements made by the plasma instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Wind spacecraft over the period from 1996, the minimum of solar cycle 23, through the end of 2005. During this period, SOHO was located at L1, about 200 R E upstream from the Earth, while Wind spent most of the time in the interplanetary medium at distances of more than 100 R E from the Earth. Yearly histograms of the maximum, time-lagged correlation coefficients for both the speed and density are bimodal in shape, suggesting the existence of two distinct solar wind regimes. The larger correlation coefficients we suggest are due to structured solar wind, including discontinuities and shocks, while the smaller are likely due to Alfvénic turbulence. While further work will be required to firmly establish the physical nature of the two populations, the results of the analysis are consistent with a solar wind that consists of turbulence from quiet regions of the Sun interspersed with highly filamentary structures largely convected from regions in the inner solar corona. The bimodal appearance of the distributions is less evident in the solar wind speed than in the density correlations, consistent with the observation that the filamentary structures are convected with nearly constant speed by the time they reach 1 AU. We also find that at solar minimum the fits for the density correlations have smaller high-correlation components than at solar maximum. We interpret this as due to the presence of more relatively uniform Alfvénic regions at solar minimum than at solar maximum.

Solar Control of Earth's Ionosphere: Observations from Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doe, R. A.; Thayer, J. P.; Solomon, S. C.

2005-05-01

A nine year database of sunlit E-region electron density altitude profiles (Ne(z)) measured by the Sondrestrom ISR has been partitioned over a 30-bin parameter space of averaged 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) and solar zenith angle (χ) to investigate long-term solar and thermospheric variability, and to validate contemporary EUV photoionization models. A two stage filter, based on rejection of Ne(z) profiles with large Hall to Pedersen ratio, is used to minimize auroral contamination. Resultant filtered mean Ne(z) compares favorably with subauroral Ne measured for the same F10.7 and χ conditions at the Millstone Hill ISR. Mean Ne, as expected, increases with solar activity and decreases with large χ, and the variance around mean Ne is shown to be greatest at low F10.7 (solar minimum). ISR-derived mean Ne is compared with two EUV models: (1) a simple model without photoelectrons and based on the 5 -- 105 nm EUVAC model solar flux [Richards et al., 1994] and (2) the GLOW model [Solomon et al., 1988; Solomon and Abreu, 1989] suitably modified for inclusion of XUV spectral components and photoelectron flux. Across parameter space and for all altitudes, Model 2 provides a closer match to ISR mean Ne and suggests that the photoelectron and XUV enhancements are essential to replicate measured plasma densities below 150 km. Simulated Ne variance envelopes, given by perturbing the Model 2 neutral atmosphere input by the measured extremum in Ap, F10.7, and Te, are much narrower than ISR-derived geophysical variance envelopes. We thus conclude that long-term variability of the EUV spectra dominates over thermospheric variability and that EUV spectral variability is greatest at solar minimum. ISR -- model comparison also provides evidence for the emergence of an H (Lyman β) Ne feature at solar maximum. Richards, P. G., J. A. Fennelly, and D. G. Torr, EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 8981, 1994. Solomon, S. C., P. B. Hays, and V. J. Abreu, The auroral 6300 Å emission: Observations and Modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9867, 1988. Solomon, S. C. and V. J. Abreu, The 630 nm dayglow, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 6817, 1989.

Properties of the suprathermal heavy ion population near 1 AU during solar cycles 23 and 24

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, Maher A., E-mail: maldayeh@swri.edu; Ebert, Robert W.; Desai, Mihir I.

2016-03-25

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/ULEIS) near 1 AU, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during interplanetary quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2014 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following: (1) The number of quiet-hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 90% of the time; (2) The composition of the quiet-timemore » suprathermal heavy ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-O, and Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum; (3) The heavy ion spectra at ∼0.11-0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} exhibit suprathermal tails with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.4 to 2.7. (4) Fe spectral indices get softer (steeper) from solar minimum of cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 maximum. These results imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events.« less

Long periods (1 -10 mHz) geomagnetic pulsations variation with solar cycle in South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon Silva, Willian; Schuch, Nelson Jorge; Guimarães Dutra, Severino Luiz; Babulal Trivedi, Nalin; Claudir da Silva, Andirlei; Souza Savian, Fernando; Ronan Coelho Stekel, Tardelli; de Siqueira, Josemar; Espindola Antunes, Cassio

The occurrence and intensity of the geomagnetic pulsations Pc-5 (2-7 mHz) and its relationship with the solar cycle in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly -SAMA is presented. The study of geomagnetic pulsations is important to help the understanding of the physical processes that occurs in the magnetosphere region and help to predict geomagnetic storms. The fluxgate mag-netometers H, D and Z, three axis geomagnetic field data from the Southern Space Observatory -SSO/CRS/INPE -MCT, São Martinho da Serra (29.42° S, 53.87° W, 480m a.s.l.), RS, Brasil, a were analyzed and correlated with the solar wind parameters (speed, density and temperature) from the ACE and SOHO satellites. A digital filtering to enhance the 2-7 mHz geomagnetic pulsations was used. Five quiet days and five perturbed days in the solar minimum and in the solar maximum were selected for this analysis. The days were chosen based on the IAGA definition and on the Bartels Musical Diagrams (Kp index) for 2001 (solar maximum) and 2008 (solar minimum). The biggest Pc-5 amplitude averages differences between the H-component is 78,35 nT for the perturbed days and 1,60nT for the quiet days during the solar maximum. For perturbed days the average amplitude during the solar minimum is 8,32 nT, confirming a direct solar cycle influence in the geomagnetic pulsations intensity for long periods.

Solar irradiance variability: a six-year comparison between SORCE observations and the SATIRE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S.; Harder, J. W.

2011-06-01

Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements over the period 25 February 2003 to 1 November 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630 nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE over the period 21 April 2004 to 1 November 2009. We discuss the overall change in flux and the rotational and long-term trends during this period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in ~10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV integrated over 200-300 nm, the visible over 400-691 nm and the IR between 972-1630 nm. Results: The model captures 97% of the observed TSI variation. This is on the order at which TSI detectors agree with each other during the period considered. In the spectral comparison, rotational variability is well reproduced, especially between 400 and 1200 nm. The magnitude of change in the long-term trends is many times larger in SIM at almost all wavelengths while trends in SIM oppose SATIRE in the visible between 500 and 700 nm and again between 1000 and 1200 nm. We discuss the remaining issues with both SIM data and the identified limits of the model, particularly with the way facular contributions are dealt with, the limit of flux identification in MDI magnetograms during solar minimum and the model atmospheres in the IR employed by SATIRE. However, it is unlikely that improvements in these areas will significantly enhance the agreement in the long-term trends. This disagreement implies that some mechanism other than surface magnetism is causing SSI variations, in particular between 2004 and 2006, if the SIM data are correct. Since SATIRE was able to reproduce UV irradiance between 1991 and 2002 from UARS, either the solar mechanism for SSI variation fundamentally changed around the peak of cycle 23, or there is an inconsistency between UARS and SORCE UV measurements. We favour the second explanation.

The relationship of the large-scale solar field to the interplanetary magnetic field - What will Ulysses find?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoeksema, J. T.

1986-01-01

Using photospheric magnetic field observations obtained at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory, results from a potential field model for the present solar cycle are given, and qualitative predictions of the IMF that Ulysses may encounter are presented. Results indicate that the IMF consists of large regions of opposite polarity separated by a neutral sheet (NS) (extended to at least 50 deg) and a four-sector structure near solar minimum (produced by small quadripolar NS warps). The latitudinal extent of the NS increases following minimum and the structure near maximum includes multiple NSs, while a simplified IMF is found during the declining phase.

Global solar wind variations over the last four centuries.

PubMed

Owens, M J; Lockwood, M; Riley, P

2017-01-31

The most recent "grand minimum" of solar activity, the Maunder minimum (MM, 1650-1710), is of great interest both for understanding the solar dynamo and providing insight into possible future heliospheric conditions. Here, we use nearly 30 years of output from a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona to calibrate heliospheric reconstructions based solely on sunspot observations. Using these empirical relations, we produce the first quantitative estimate of global solar wind variations over the last 400 years. Relative to the modern era, the MM shows a factor 2 reduction in near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength and solar wind speed, and up to a factor 4 increase in solar wind Mach number. Thus solar wind energy input into the Earth's magnetosphere was reduced, resulting in a more Jupiter-like system, in agreement with the dearth of auroral reports from the time. The global heliosphere was both smaller and more symmetric under MM conditions, which has implications for the interpretation of cosmogenic radionuclide data and resulting total solar irradiance estimates during grand minima.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Comparison of solar activity during last two minima on turn of Activity Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryciuk, Magdalena; Gburek, Szymon; Siarkowski, Marek; Podgorski, Piotr; Sylwester, Janusz; Farnik, Frantisek

2013-07-01

The subject of our work is the review and comparison of solar activity during the last two solar minima that occurred between recent activity cycles. We use the soft X-ray global solar corona observations covering the two nine-months long time intervals in 1997/98 and 2009. Data from RF15-I multichannel photometer are used for the penultimate minimum. For the last unusually deep and prolonged solar activity minimum in 2009 the data from SphinX spectrophotometer are used. Comparison of measurements from both minima takes place in the overlapping energy range 2-15 keV. We focus on the active region formation, evolution and flaring productivity during respective minima.

Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonsen, Lisa C.; Nealy, John E.

1992-01-01

The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.

2018-03-01

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).

Nonlinear Behavior of the Geomagnetic Fluctuations Recorded in Different Geomagnetic Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovacs, P.; Heilig, B.; Koppan, A.; Vadasz, G.; Echim, M.

2014-12-01

The paper concerns with the nonlinear properties of geomagnetic variations recorded in different geomagnetic latitudes, in the years of solar maximum and minimum. For the study, we use the geomagnetic time-series recorded by some of the stations of the EMMA quasi-meridional magnetometer network, established for pulsation study, in September 2001. The stations are located approx. along the magnetic meridian of 100 degree, and the sampling frequency of the series is 1 Hz. It is argued that the geomagnetic field exhibits nonlinear intermittent fluctuations in certain temporal scale range. For quantitatively investigating the scaling ranges and the variation of intermittent properties with latitude and time, we analyse the higher order moments of the time records (probability density function or structure function analyses). The multifractal or self-similar scaling of the fluctuations is investigated via the fitting of the P model to structure function scaling exponents. We also study the power-law behaviour of the power-spectral density functions of the series in order to evaluate the possible inertial frequency (and temporal) range of the geomagnetic field and compare them with the scaling ranges of structure functions. The range where intermittent geomagnetic variation is found falls typically between 100 and 20.000 s, i.e. covers the temporal range of the main phases of geomagnetic storms. It is shown that the intensity of intermittent fluctuations increases from solar minimum to solar maximum. The expected increase in the level of intermittency with the geomagnetic latitude can be evidenced only in the years of solar minimum. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement n° 313038/STORM.

Solar wind iron abundance variations at solar wind speeds up to 600 km s sup -1, 1972 to 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, D. G.; Roelof, E. C.; Bame, S. J.

1982-01-01

The Fe/H ratios in the peaks of high speed streams (HSS) were analyzed during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 and the following minimum (October 1972 to December 1976). The response of the 50 to 200 keV ion channel of the APL/JHU energetic particle experiment (EPE) on IMP-7 and 8 was utilized to solar wind iron ions at high solar wind speeds (V or = 600 km/sec). Fe measurements with solar wind H and He parameters were compared from the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) instruments on the same spacecraft. In general, the Fe distribution parameters (bulk velocity, flow direction, temperature) are found to be similar to the LANL He parameters. Although the average Fe/H ration in many steady HSS peaks agrees within observational uncertainties with the nominal coronal ratio of 4.7 x 0.00001, abundance variations of a factor of up to 6 are obtained across a given coronal-hole associated HSS.

European SpaceCraft for the study of Atmospheric Particle Escape (ESCAPE): a planetary mission to Earth, proposed in response to the ESA M5-call

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandouras, I.; Yamauchi, M.; Rème, H.; De Keyser, J.; Marghitu, O.; Fazakerley, A.; Grison, B.; Kistler, L.; Milillo, A.; Nakamura, R.; Paschalidis, N.; Paschalis, A.; Pinçon, J.-L.; Sakanoi, T.; Wieser, M.; Wurz, P.; Yoshikawa, I.; Häggström, I.; Liemohn, M.; Tian, F.

2017-09-01

ESCAPE is a mission proposed in response to the ESA-M5 call that will quantitatively estimate the amount of escaping particles of the major atmospheric components (nitrogen and oxygen), as neutral and ionised species, escaping from the Earth as a magnetised planet. The goal is to understand the importance of each escape mechanism, its dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity, and to infer the history of the Earth's atmospheric composition over a long (geological scale) time period. Since the solar EUV and solar wind conditions during solar maximum at present are comparable to the solar minimum conditions 1-2 billion years ago, the escaping amount and the isotope and N/O ratios should be obtained as a function of external forcing (solar and geomagnetic conditions) to allow a scaling to the past. The result will be used as a reference to understand the atmospheric/ionospheric evolution of magnetised planets, which is essential for habitability.

Activity associated with the solar origin of coronal mass ejections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, D. F.; Hundhausen, A. J.

1987-01-01

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in 1980 with the HAO Coronagraph/Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite are compared with other forms of solar activity that might be physically related to the ejections. The solar phenomena checked and the method of association used were intentionally patterned after those of Munro et al.'s (1979) analysis of mass ejections observed with the Skylab coronagraph to facilitate comparison of the two epochs. Comparison of the results reveals that the types and degree of CME associations are similar near solar activity minimum and at maximum. For both epochs, most CMEs with associations had associated eruptive prominences, and the proportions of association of all types of activity were similar. A high percentage of association between SMM CMEs and X-ray long duration events is also found, in agreement with Skylab results. It is concluded that most CMEs are the result of the destabilization and eruption of a prominence and its overlying coronal structure, or of a magnetic structure capable of supporting a prominence.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

2015-12-01

The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.

A comparison of photospheric electric current and ultraviolet and X-ray emission in a solar active region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haisch, B. M.; Bruner, M. E.; Hagyard, M. J.; Bonnet, R. M.

1986-01-01

This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft X-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is found between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region.

Solar wind noble gases and nitrogen in metal from lunar soil 68501

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Richard H.; Pepin, Robert O.

1994-01-01

Noble gases and N were analyzed in handpicked metal separates from lunar soil 68501 by a combination of step-wise combustions and pyrolyses. Helium and Ne were found to be unfractionated with respect to one another when normalized to solar abundances, for both the bulk sample and for all but the highest temperature steps. However, they are depleted relative to Ar, Kr and Xe by at least a factor of 5. The heavier gases exhibit mass-dependent fractionation relative to solar system abundance ratios but appear unfractionated, both in the bulk metal and in early temperature steps, when compared to relative abundances derived from lunar ilmenite 71501 by chemical etching, recently put forward as representing the abundance ratios in solar wind. Estimates of the contribution of solar energetic particles (SEP) to the originally implanted solar gases, derived from a basic interpretation of He and Ne isotopes, yield values of about 10%. Analysis of the Ar isotopes requires a minimum of 20% SEP, and Kr isotopes, using our preferred composition for solar wind Kr, yield a result that overlaps both these values. It is possible to reconcile the data from these gases if significant loss of solar wind Ar, Kr and presumably Xe has occurred relative to the SEP component, most likely by erosive processes that are mass independent, although mass-dependent losses (Ar greater than Kr greater than Xe) cannot be excluded. If such losses did occur, the SEP contribution to the solar implanted gases must have been no more than a few percent. Nitrogen is a mixture of indigenous meteoritic N, whose isotopic composition is inferred to be relatively light, and implanted solar N, which has probably undergone diffusive redistribution and fractionation. If the heavy noble gases have not undergone diffusive loss, then N/Ar in the solar wind can be inferred to be at least several times the accepted solar ratio. The solar wind N appears, even after correction for fractionation effects, to have a minimum delta N-15 value equal to or greater than +150% and a more probable value equal to or greater than +200%.

Variability of fractal dimension of solar radio flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Hitaishi; Sharma, Som Kumar; Trivedi, Rupal; Vats, Hari Om

2018-04-01

In the present communication, the variation of the fractal dimension of solar radio flux is reported. Solar radio flux observations on a day to day basis at 410, 1415, 2695, 4995, and 8800 MHz are used in this study. The data were recorded at Learmonth Solar Observatory, Australia from 1988 to 2009 covering an epoch of two solar activity cycles (22 yr). The fractal dimension is calculated for the listed frequencies for this period. The fractal dimension, being a measure of randomness, represents variability of solar radio flux at shorter time-scales. The contour plot of fractal dimension on a grid of years versus radio frequency suggests high correlation with solar activity. Fractal dimension increases with increasing frequency suggests randomness increases towards the inner corona. This study also shows that the low frequency is more affected by solar activity (at low frequency fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.42) whereas, the higher frequency is less affected by solar activity (here fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.07). A good positive correlation is found between fractal dimension averaged over all frequencies and yearly averaged sunspot number (Pearson's coefficient is 0.87).

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Petrus C.; Nandy, D.; Munoz-Jaramillo, A.

2009-05-01

The current minimum of cycle 23 is unusual in its long duration, the very low level to which Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has fallen, and the small flux of the open polar fields. The deep minimum of TSI seems to be related to an unprecedented dearth of polar faculae, and hence to the small amount of open flux. Based upon surface flux transport models it has been suggested that the causes of these phenomena may be an unusually vigorous meridional flow, or even a deviation from Joy's law resulting in smaller Joy angles than usual for emerging flux in cycle 23. There is also the possibility of a connection with the recently inferred emergence in polar regions of bipoles that systematically defy Hale's law. Much speculation has been going on as to the consequences of this exceptional minimum: are we entering another global minimum, is this the end of the 80 year period of exceptionally high solar activity, or is this just a statistical hiccup? Dynamo simulations are underway that may help answer this question. As an aside it must be mentioned that the current minimum of TSI puts an upper limit in the TSI input for global climate simulations during the Maunder minimum, and that a possible decrease in future solar activity will result in a very small but not insignificant reduction in the pace of global warming.

24 CFR 200.950 - Building product standards and certification program for solar water heating system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... certification program for solar water heating system. 200.950 Section 200.950 Housing and Urban Development... solar water heating system. (a) Applicable standards. (1) All solar water heating systems shall be...) Document OG-300-93, Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems...

24 CFR 200.950 - Building product standards and certification program for solar water heating system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... certification program for solar water heating system. 200.950 Section 200.950 Housing and Urban Development... solar water heating system. (a) Applicable standards. (1) All solar water heating systems shall be...) Document OG-300-93, Operating Guidelines and Minimum Standards for Certifying Solar Water Heating Systems...

Implications of Extended Solar Minima

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi L.; Davis, J. M.

2009-01-01

Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22- year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

A comparative study between control strategies for a solar sailcraft in an Earth-Mars transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainenti-Lopes, I.; Souza, L. C. Gadelha; De Sousa, Fabiano. L.

2016-10-01

The goal of this work was a comparative study of solar sail trajectory optimization using different control strategies. Solar sailcraft is propulsion system with great interest in space engineering, since it uses solar radiation to propulsion. So there is no need for propellant to be used, thus it can remains active throughout the entire transfer maneuver. This type of propulsion system opens the possibility to reduce the cost of exploration missions in the solar system. In its simplest configuration, a Flat Solar Sail (FSS) consists of a large and thin structure generally composed by a film fixed to flexible rods. The performance of these vehicles depends largely on the sails attitude relative to the Sun. Using a FSS as propulsion, an Earth-Mars transfer optimization problem was tackled by the algorithms GEOreal1 and GEOreal2 (Generalized Extremal Optimization with real codification). Those algorithms are Evolutionary Algorithms (AE) based on the theory of Self-Organized Criticality. They were used to optimize the FSS attitude angle so it could reach Mars orbit in minimum time. It was considered that the FSS could perform up to ten attitude maneuvers during orbital transfer. Moreover, the time between maneuvers can be different. So, the algorithms had to optimize an objective function with 20 design variables. The results obtained in this work were compared with previously results that considered constant values of time between maneuvers.

The Little Ice Age and Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel; Leal Silva, C. M. Carmen; Velasco Herrera, Graciela

We analyze the ice winter severity index on the Baltic region since 1501-1995. We found that the variability of this index is modulated among other factors by the secular solar activity. The little ice ages that have appeared in the North Hemisphere occurred during periods of low solar activity. Seemingly our star is experiencing a new quiet stage compared with Maunder or Dalton minimum, this is important because it is estimated that even small changes in weather can represent a great impact in ice index. These results are relevant since ice is a very important element in the climate system of the Baltic region and it can affect directly or indirectly many of the oceanographic, climatic, eco-logical, economical and cultural patterns.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidalmore » variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period.« less

Using the Chandra Source-Finding Algorithm to Automatically Identify Solar X-ray Bright Points

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Mitzi L.; Tennant, A.; Cirtain, J. M.

2009-01-01

This poster details a technique of bright point identification that is used to find sources in Chandra X-ray data. The algorithm, part of a program called LEXTRCT, searches for regions of a given size that are above a minimum signal to noise ratio. The algorithm allows selected pixels to be excluded from the source-finding, thus allowing exclusion of saturated pixels (from flares and/or active regions). For Chandra data the noise is determined by photon counting statistics, whereas solar telescopes typically integrate a flux. Thus the calculated signal-to-noise ratio is incorrect, but we find we can scale the number to get reasonable results. For example, Nakakubo and Hara (1998) find 297 bright points in a September 11, 1996 Yohkoh image; with judicious selection of signal-to-noise ratio, our algorithm finds 300 sources. To further assess the efficacy of the algorithm, we analyze a SOHO/EIT image (195 Angstroms) and compare results with those published in the literature (McIntosh and Gurman, 2005). Finally, we analyze three sets of data from Hinode, representing different parts of the decline to minimum of the solar cycle.

Solar radiation and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-11-01

Although several studies have estimated the effects of temperature on mortality and morbidity, little is known regarding the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) attributable to solar radiation. We obtained data for all cases of OHCA and meteorological data reported between 2011 and 2014 in 3 Japanese prefectures: Hokkaido, Ibaraki, and Fukuoka. We first examined the relationship between daily solar radiation and OHCA risk for each prefecture using time-varying distributed lag non-linear models and then pooled the results in a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. The attributable fractions of OHCA were calculated for low and high solar radiation, defined as solar radiation below and above the minimum morbidity solar radiation, respectively. The minimum morbidity solar radiation was defined as the specific solar radiation associated with the lowest morbidity risk. A total of 49,892 cases of OHCA occurred during the study period. The minimum morbidity solar radiation for each prefecture was the 100th percentile (72.5 MJ/m 2 ) in Hokkaido, the 83rd percentile (59.7 MJ/m 2 ) in Ibaraki, and the 70th percentile (53.8 MJ/m 2 ) in Fukuoka. Overall, 20.00% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 10.97-27.04) of the OHCA cases were attributable to daily solar radiation. The attributable fraction for low solar radiation was 19.50% (95% eCI: 10.00-26.92), whereas that for high solar radiation was 0.50% (95% eCI: -0.07-1.01). Low solar radiation was associated with a substantial attributable risk for OHCA. Our findings suggest that public health efforts to reduce OHCA burden should consider the solar radiation level. Large prospective studies with longitudinal collection of individual data is required to more conclusively assess the impact of solar radiation on OHCA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fe/O ratio behavior as an indicator of solar plasma state at different solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minasyants, Gennady; Minasyants, Tamara; Tomozov, Vladimir

2018-03-01

We report the results of the investigation into plasma physical characteristics at various solar activity manifestations and in periods of their absence. These results have been obtained from quantitative estimates of the relative abundance of Fe/O ions in different energy ranges. Maximum values of the Fe/O ratio is shown to correspond to particle fluxes from impulsive flares for ions with energies <2 MeV/n (the most significant manifestation of the FIP effect). In particle fluxes from gradual flares, the Fe/O value decreases smoothly with ion energy and is noticeably inferior to values of fluxes in impulsive events. We have established that the properties of flares of solar cosmic rays indicate their belonging to a separate subclass in the total population of gradual events. Relying on variations in the abundance of Fe/O ions, we propose an explanation of the solar plasma behavior during the development of flares of both classes. Magnetic clouds (a separate type of coronal mass ejections (CME)), which have regions of turbulent compression and are sources of strong geomagnetic storms, exhibit a relative composition of Fe ions comparable to the abundance of Fe in ion fluxes from gradual flares. We have found out that the Fe/O value can be used to detect penetration of energetic flare plasma into the CME body at the initial phase of their joint development and to estimate its relative contribution. During solar minimum with the complete absence of sunspots, the Fe/O ratio during periods of "quiet" solar wind show absolutely low values of Fe/O=0.004-0.010 in the energy range from 2-5 to 30 MeV/n. This is associated with the manifestation of the cosmic ray anomalous component, which causes an increase in the intensity of ion fluxes with a high first ionization potential, including oxygen (O), and elements with a low first ionization potential (Fe) demonstrate the weakening of the fluxes. As for particles with higher energies (Ek>30 MeV/n), the Fe/O increase is due to the decisive influence of galactic cosmic rays on the composition of impurity elements in the solar wind under solar minimum conditions. The relative content of heavy elements in galactic cosmic rays 30-500 MeV/n is similar to values in fluxes from gradual flares during high solar activity. During solar minimum without sunspots, the behavior of Fe/O for different ion energy ranges in plasma flows from coronal holes (CH) and in the solar wind exhibits only minor deviations. At the same time, plasma flows associated with the disturbed frontal CH region can be sources of moderate geomagnetic storms.

Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) and comparison with IRI model during descending phase of solar activity (2005-2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sanjay; Singh, A. K.; Lee, Jiyun

2014-03-01

The ionospheric variability at equatorial and low latitude region is known to be extreme as compared to mid latitude region. In this study the ionospheric total electron content (TEC), is derived by analyzing dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) data recorded at two stations separated by 325 km near the Indian equatorial anomaly region, Varanasi (Geog latitude 25°, 16/ N, longitude 82°, 59/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 16°, 08/ N) and Kanpur (Geog latitude 26°, 18/ N, longitude 80°, 12/ E, Geomagnetic latitude 17°, 18/ N). Specifically, we studied monthly, seasonal and annual variations as well as solar and geomagnetic effects on the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) during the descending phase of solar activity from 2005 to 2009. It is found that the maximum TEC (EIA) near equatorial anomaly crest yield their maximum values during the equinox months and their minimum values during the summer. Using monthly averaged peak magnitude of TEC, a clear semi-annual variation is seen with two maxima occurring in both spring and autumn. Results also showed the presence of winter anomaly or seasonal anomaly in the EIA crest throughout the period 2005-2009 only except during the deep solar minimum year 2007-2008. The correlation analysis indicate that the variation of EIA crest is more affected by solar activity compared to geomagnetic activity with maximum dependence on the solar EUV flux, which is attributed to direct link of EUV flux on the formation of ionosphere and main agent of the ionization. The statistical mean occurrence of EIA crest in TEC during the year from 2005 to 2009 is found to around 12:54 LT hour and at 21.12° N geographic latitude. The crest of EIA shifts towards lower latitudes and the rate of shift of the crest latitude during this period is found to be 0.87° N/per year. The comparison between IRI models with observation during this period has been made and comparison is poor with increasing solar activity with maximum difference during the year 2005.

Morphology of equatorial plasma bubbles during low and high solar activity years over Indian sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sanjay

2017-05-01

In the present study, slant total electron content (STEC) data computed from ground based GPS measurements over Hyderabad (Geog. Lat. 17.41° N, geog. long. 78.55° E, mag. lat. 08.81° N) and two close stations at Bangalore (Geog. Lat. 13.02°/13.03° N, geog. long. 77.57°/77.51° E, mag. lat. 04.53°/04.55° N) in Indian region during 2007-2012, have been used to study the occurrences and characteristics of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs). The analysis found maximum EPB occurrences during the equinoctial months and minimum during the December solstice throughout 2007-2012 except during the solar minimum years in 2007-2009. During 2007-2009, the maximum EPB occurrences were observed in June solstice which could not be predicted by the model proposed by Tsunoda (J. Geophys. Res., 90:447-456, 1985). The equinox maximum in EPB occurrences for high solar activity years could be caused by the vertical F-layer drift due to pre-reversal electric field (PRE), and expected to be maximum when day-night terminator aligns with the magnetic meridian i.e. during the equinox months whereas maximum occurrences during the solstice months of solar minimum could be caused by the seed perturbation in plasma density induced by gravity waves from tropospheric origins. Generally EPB occurrences are found to be more prominent during nighttime hours (2000-2400 hours) than the daytime hours. Peak in EPB occurrences is in early night for high solar activity years whereas same is late night for low solar activity. The day and nighttime EPB occurrences have been analyzed and found to vary in accordance with solar activity with an annual correlation coefficient (R) of ˜0.99 with F_{10.7} cm solar Flux. Additionally, solar activity influence on EPB occurrences is seasonal dependent with a maximum influence during the equinox season (R=0.88) and a minimum during winter season (R =0.73). The solar activity influences on EPB occurrences are found in agreement with the previous works reported in the Brazilian, African-Asian and Pacific longitudes sector but different than that in Atlantic sector.

Ionospheric effects of the extreme solar activity of February 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boska, J.; Pancheva, D.

1989-01-01

During February 1986, near the minimum of the 11 year Solar sunspot cycle, after a long period of totally quiet solar activity (R sub z = 0 on most days in January) a period of a suddenly enhanced solar activity occurred in the minimum between solar cycles 21 and 22. Two proton flares were observed during this period. A few other flares, various phenomena accompanying proton flares, an extremely severe geomagnetic storm and strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere were observed in this period of enhanced solar activity. Two active regions appeared on the solar disc. The flares in both active regions were associated with enhancement of solar high energy proton flux which started on 4 February of 0900 UT. Associated with the flares, the magnetic storm with sudden commencement had its onset on 6 February 1312 UT and attained its maximum on 8 February (Kp = 9). The sudden enhancement in solar activity in February 1986 was accompanied by strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere, SIDs and ionospheric storm. These events and their effects on the ionosphere are discussed.

Diagnostics of the solar corona from comparison between Faraday rotation measurements and magnetohydrodynamic simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Chat, G.; Cohen, O.; Kasper, J. C.

Polarized natural radio sources passing behind the Sun experience Faraday rotation as a consequence of the electron density and magnetic field strength in coronal plasma. Since Faraday rotation is proportional to the product of the density and the component of the magnetic field along the line of sight of the observer, a model is required to interpret the observations and infer coronal structures. Faraday rotation observations have been compared with relatively ad hoc models of the corona. Here for the first time we compare these observations with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona driven by measurements of the photosphericmore » magnetic field. We use observations made with the NRAO Very Large Array of 34 polarized radio sources occulted by the solar corona between 5 and 14 solar radii. The measurements were made during 1997 May, and 2005 March and April. We compare the observed Faraday rotation values with values extracted from MHD steady-state simulations of the solar corona. We find that (1) using a synoptic map of the solar magnetic field just one Carrington rotation off produces poorer agreements, meaning that the outer corona changes in the course of one month, even in solar minimum; (2) global MHD models of the solar corona driven by photospheric magnetic field measurements are generally able to reproduce Faraday rotation observations; and (3) some sources show significant disagreement between the model and the observations, which appears to be a function of the proximity of the line of sight to the large-scale heliospheric current sheet.« less

Analysis of 20 magnetic clouds at 1 AU during a solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulisano, A. M.; Dasso, S.; Mandrini, C. H.; Démoulin, P.

We study 20 magnetic clouds, observed in situ by the spacecraft Wind, at the Lagrangian point L1, from 22 August, 1995, to 7 November, 1997. In previous works, assuming a cylindrical symmetry for the local magnetic configuration and a satellite trajectory crossing the axis of the cloud, we obtained their orientations using a minimum variance analysis. In this work we compute the orientations and magnetic configurations using a non-linear simultaneous fit of the geometric and physical parameters for a linear force-free model, including the possibility of a not null impact parameter. We quantify global magnitudes such as the relative magnetic helicity per unit length and compare the values found with both methods (minimum variance and the simultaneous fit). FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

Proposed U.S. Space Weather Budget for Fiscal Year 2011 Would Fund Key Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2010-09-01

The proposed U.S. federal budget for space weather research for fiscal year (FY) 2011 would provide funding for key space weather programs within several U.S. agencies, including NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Air Force. Funding for the programs comes ahead of the upcoming solar maximum, a period of the solar cycle with heightened solar activity, projected for 2013. Several officials indicated that while funding is not tied to a particular solar maximum or minimum, available assets could help with studying and preparing for the solar maximum. The proposed FY 2011 budget for the Heliophysics Division within NASA's Science Mission Directorate is $641.9 million, compared with the FY 2010 enacted budget of $627.4 million. Within the proposed budget is $166.9 million for heliophysics research, down slightly from $173 million for FY 2010. The proposed budget would include $31.7 million for heliophysics research and analysis (compared with $31 million for FY 2010); $66.7 million for “other missions and data analysis,” including Cluster II, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission; and $48.9 million for sounding rockets.

24/7 Solar Minimum Polar Cap and Auroral Ion Temperature Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, Jan J.; Nicolls, Michael; van Eyken, Anthony; Heinselman, Craig; Bilitza, Dieter

2011-01-01

During the International Polar Year (IPY) two Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs) achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) a fiduciary E- and F-region ionosphere description for solar minimum conditions in both the auroral and polar cap regions. The ionospheric description being electron density, ion temperature and electron temperature profiles from as low as 90 km extending to several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.1 N latitude, 212.5 E longitude where the NSF s new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. This location during solar minimum conditions is in the auroral region for most of the day but is at midlatitudes, equator ward of the cusp, for about 4-8 h per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78.2 N latitude, 16.0 E longitude where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap with a noon sector passage often through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be distinguished between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 - 29 February 2008, about 50 solar wind Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a two to five day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ESR and PFISR observations. Hence, this data set also enables the quiet-background ionospheric climatology to be established as a function of season and local time. These two separate climatologies for the ion temperature at an altitude of 300 km are presented and compared with IRI ion temperatures. The IRI ion temperatures are about 200-300 K hotter than the observed values. However, the MSIS neutral temperature at 300 km compares favorably with the quiet-background in temperature, both in magnitude and climatology.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

CMEs, the Tail of the Solar Wind Magnetic Field Distribution, and 11-yr Cosmic Ray Modulation at 1 AU. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Richardson, I. G.

2003-01-01

Using a recent classification of the solar wind at 1 AU into its principal components (slow solar wind, high-speed streams, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for 1972-2000, we show that the monthly-averaged galactic cosmic ray intensity is anti-correlated with the percentage of time that the Earth is imbedded in CME flows. We suggest that this correlation results primarily from a CME related change in the tail of the distribution function of hourly-averaged values of the solar wind magnetic field (B) between solar minimum and solar maximum. The number of high-B (square proper subset 10 nT) values increases by a factor of approx. 3 from minimum to maximum (from 5% of all hours to 17%), with about two-thirds of this increase due to CMEs. On an hour-to-hour basis, average changes of cosmic ray intensity at Earth become negative for solar wind magnetic field values square proper subset 10 nT.

SuperDARN observations of an unusually contracted ionospheric convection pattern during the recent deep solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imber, S. M.; Milan, S. E.; Lester, M.

2012-04-01

We present a long term study, from 1995 - 2011, of the latitude of the Heppner-Maynard Boundary (HMB) determined using the northern hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The HMB represents the equatorward extent of ionospheric convection. We find that the average latitude of the HMB at midnight is 61° magnetic latitude during the solar maximum of 2003, but it moves significantly poleward during solar minimum, averaging 64° latitude during 1996, and 68° during 2010. This poleward motion is observed despite the increasing number of low latitude radars built in recent years as part of the StormDARN network, and so is not an artefact of data coverage. We believe that the recent extreme solar minimum lead to an average HMB location that was further poleward than previous solar cycles. We also calculated the open-closed field line boundary (OCB) from auroral images during the years 2000-2002 and find that on average the HMB is located equatorward of the OCB by ~6°. We suggest that the HMB may be a useful proxy for the OCB when global auroral images are not available.

Characteristics of low-latitude ionospheric depletions and enhancements during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaser, R. A.; Earle, G. D.; Heelis, R. A.; Klenzing, J.; Stoneback, R.; Coley, W. R.; Burrell, A. G.

2012-10-01

Under the waning solar minimum conditions during 2009 and 2010, the Ion Velocity Meter, part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation aboard the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, is used to measure in situ nighttime ion densities and drifts at altitudes between 400 and 550 km during the hours 21:00-03:00 solar local time. A new approach to detecting and classifying well-formed ionospheric plasma depletions and enhancements (bubbles and blobs) with scale sizes between 50 and 500 km is used to develop geophysical statistics for the summer, winter, and equinox seasons during the quiet solar conditions. Some diurnal and seasonal geomagnetic distribution characteristics confirm previous work on equatorial irregularities and scintillations, while other elements reveal new behaviors that will require further investigation before they may be fully understood. Events identified in the study reveal very different and often opposite behaviors of bubbles and blobs during solar minimum. In particular, more bubbles demonstrating deeper density fluctuations and faster perturbation plasma drifts typically occur earlier near the magnetic equator, while blobs of similar magnitude occur more often far away from the geomagnetic equator closer to midnight.

Solar induced long- and short-term variations of the cosmic ray intensity in the past, and predictions and opportunities for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.

2009-12-01

The cosmogenic radionuclide data from the past 10,000 years, and the instrumental cosmic ray data since 1936 provide detailed information on the possible consequences of the present long and deep solar minimum. Furthermore, the cosmic ray transport equation has been used to estimate the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout the past 10,000 years. This paper presents a series of figures that document the behavior of both the cosmic radiation and the IMF at Earth in the past. In particular, the 11-year cycles in both quantities for the past 600 years are displayed; and estimates given of the cosmic ray spectrum at Earth for situations that history tells us may occur in the near future. Over the longer term, a minimum of the Hallstatt cycle (2200 yr periodicity) of solar activity occurred ~500 years ago and the Sun is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity has decreased extremely rapidly after earlier prolonged deep minima and this suggests rapid and large changes in the heliospheric conditions that we may see replicated. The paper will also display data from the deep, isolated solar minimum of 1956 that exhibited unusual low energy cosmic ray fluxes, and a highly anomalous cosmic ray gradient in the inner heliosphere. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence will also be displayed of an episode of intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the interval of reduced solar activity, 1892-1900, that may possibly be repeated. If the present long, deep solar minimum is a precursor to a “Grand Minimum” such as the Dalton minimum, it will provide a much improved insight into the spectrum of the cosmic radiation in interstellar space, and to the cosmic ray modulation process in the heliosphere. With this in mind, the paper suggests key measurements, and speculates on experimental conditions that may be markedly different from those encountered in the instrumental era.

Reinventing the Solar Power Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.

2004-01-01

The selling price of electrical power varies with time. The economic viability of space solar power is maximum if the power can be sold at peak power rates, instead of baseline rate. Price and demand of electricity was examined from spot-market data from four example markets: New England, New York City, suburban New York, and California. The data was averaged to show the average price and demand for power as a function of time of day and time of year. Demand varies roughly by a factor of two between the early-morning minimum demand, and the afternoon maximum; both the amount of peak power, and the location of the peak, depends significantly on the location and the weather. The demand curves were compared to the availability curves for solar energy and for tracking and non-tracking satellite solar power systems in order to compare the market value of terrestrial and solar electrical power. In part 2, new designs for a space solar power (SSP) system were analyzed to provide electrical power to Earth for economically competitive rates. The approach was to look at innovative power architectures to more practical approaches to space solar power. A significant barrier is the initial investment required before the first power is returned. Three new concepts for solar power satellites were invented and analyzed: a solar power satellite in the Earth-Sun L2 point, a geosynchronous no-moving parts solar power satellite, and a nontracking geosynchronous solar power satellite with integral phased array. The integral-array satellite had several advantages, including an initial investment cost approximately eight times lower than the conventional design.

Far-ultraviolet refractive index of optical materials for solar blind channel (SBC) filters for the HST advanced camera for surveys (ACS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leviton, Douglas B.; Madison, Timothy J.; Petrone, Peter

1998-10-01

Refractive index measurements using the minimum deviation method have been carried out for prisms of a variety of far ultraviolet optical materials used in the manufacture of Solar Blind Channel (SBC) filters for the HST Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). Some of the materials measured are gaining popularity in a variety of high technology applications including high power excimer lasers and advanced microlithography optics operating in a wavelength region where high quality knowledge of optical material properties is sparse yet critical. Our measurements are of unusually high accuracy and precision for this wavelength region owing to advanced instrumentation in the large vacuum chamber of the Diffraction Grating Evaluation Facility (DGEF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) used to implement a minimum deviation method refractometer. Index values for CaF2, BaF2, LiF, and far ultraviolet grades of synthetic sapphire and synthetic fused silica are reported and compared with values from the literature.

Chromospherically active stars. VI - HD 136901 = UV CrB: A massive ellipsoidal K giant single-lined spectroscopic binary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fekel, Francis C.; Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Yang, Xinxing; Strassmeier, Klaus G.

1989-01-01

The variable star HD 136901 = UV CrB is a chromospherically active K2 III single-lined spectroscopic binary with an orbital period of 18.665 days. It has modest-strength Ca H and K emission and UV features, while H-alpha is a strong absorption feature containing little or no emission. The inclination of the system is 53 + or - 12 deg. The v sin i of the primary is 42 + or - 2 km/s, resulting in a minimum radius of 15.5 + or - 0.8 solar. When compared with the Roche lobe radius, this results in a mass ratio of 2.90 or larger. Additional constraints indicate that the secondary has a mass between 0.85 and 1.25 solar. Thus, the mass of the primary is at least 2.5 solar and probably is in the range 2.5-4 solar.

A survey of approximately 1 MeV/nucleon solar flare particle abundances, in the Z ? 1-26 range, during the 1973-1977 solar minimum period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, G. M.; Gloeckler, G.; Fisk, L. A.; Hovestadt, D.

1980-01-01

The abundances of the major elements over the range H-Fe in solar flare energetic particles near 1 MeV/nucleon were surveyed for a large number of flares during the period 1973-1977; observations were carried out by the IMP 8 spacecraft in interplanetary space. The survey considered two types of solar flare events: (1) large events from which the average boundaries were deduced, and (2) events which have significant abundance differences from average. In addition, two He-3-rich events with abundance features that are different from previous examples are reported: one case with no enhancements of heavy ions, and a second case in which, compared to O, the heavy-ion enhancements are confined to the charge range Si-Fe rather than the usual case in which all elements Ne-Fe are enriched.

Comparison of photospheric electric current and ultraviolet and x-ray emission in a solar active region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haisch, B.M.; Bruner, M.E.; Hagyard, M.J.

This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft x-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is foundmore » between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region. 29 references.« less

Evidence of plasma heating in solar microflares during the minimum of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirichenko, Alexey; Bogachev, Sergey

We present a statistical study of 80 solar microflares observed during the deep minimum of solar activity between 23 and 24 solar cycles. Our analysis covers the following characteristics of the flares: thermal energy of flaring plasma, its temperature and its emission measure in soft X-rays. The data were obtained during the period from April to July of 2009, which was favorable for observations of weak events because of very low level of solar activity. The most important part of our analysis was an investigation of extremely weak microflares corresponding to X-ray class below A1.0. We found direct evidence of plasma heating in more than 90% of such events. Temperature of flaring plasma was determined under the isothermal approximation using the data of two solar instruments: imaging spectroheliometer MISH onboard Coronas-Photon spacecraft and X-ray spectrophotometer SphinX operating in energy range 0.8 - 15 keV. The main advantage of MISH is the ability to image high temperature plasma (T above 4 MK) without a low-temperature background. The SphinX data was selected due to its high sensitivity, which makes available the registration of X-ray emission from extremely weak microflares corresponding GOES A0.1 - A0.01 classes. The temperature we obtained lies in the range from 2.6 to 13.6 MK, emission measure, integrated over the range 1 - 8 Å - 2.7times10(43) - 4.9times10(47) cm (-3) , thermal energy of flaring region - 5times10(26) - 1.6times10(29) erg. We compared our results with the data obtained by Feldman et. al. 1996 and Ryan et. al. 2012 for solar flares with X-ray classes above A2.0 and conclude that the relation between X-ray class of solar flare and its temperature is strongly different for ordinary flares (above A2.0) and for weak microflares (A0.01 - A2.0). Our result supports the idea that weak solar events (microflares and nanoflares) may play significant a role in plasma heating in solar corona.

Almost Spotless

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-30

This week the sun was hitting its lowest level of solar activity since 2011 (Nov. 14-18, 2016) as it gradually marches toward solar minimum. This activity is usually measured by sunspot count and over the past several days the sun has been almost spotless. The sun has a pendulum-like pattern of solar cycle of activity that extends over about an 11-year period. The last peak of activity was in early 2014. At this point in time, the sunspot numbers seem to be sliding downwards faster than expected, though the solar minimum level should not occur until 2021. No doubt more and larger sunspots will inevitably appear, but we'll just have to wait and see. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21207

Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam

Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.

Geomagnetic storms of cycle 24 and their solar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Solar activity of cycle 24 following the deep minimum between cycle 23 and cycle 24 is the weakest one since cycle 14 (1902-1913). Geomagnetic activity is also low in cycle 24. We show that this low geomagnetic activity is caused by the weak dawn-to-dusk solar wind electric field ( E d-d) and that the occurrence rate of E d-d > 5 mV/m decreased in the interval from 2013 to 2014. We picked up seventeen geomagnetic storms with the minimum Dst index of less than -100 nT and identified their solar sources in cycle 24 (2009-2015). It is shown that the relatively slow coronal mass ejections contributed to the geomagnetic storms in cycle 24.

Panel Discussions on Total Solar Irradiance Variations and the Maunder Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, J. M.; White, O. R.

1993-01-01

For more than a decade, total solar irradiance has been monitored from several satellites, namely and Nimbus-7, Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), the NASA ERBS, NOAA9 and NOAA10,EURECA, and the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (SARS).

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

2014-10-01

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006-2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.

Origin and Properties of Quiet-time 0.11–1.28 MeV Nucleon{sup −1} Heavy-ion Population Near 1 au

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; Ebert, R. W.

Using measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer /Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer near 1 au, we surveyed the composition and spectra of heavy ions (He-through-Fe) during quiet times from 1998 January 1 to 2015 December 31 at suprathermal energies between ∼0.11 and ∼1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}. The selected time period covers the maxima of solar cycles 23 and 24 and the extended solar minimum in between. We find the following. (1) The number of quiet hours in each year correlates well with the sunspot number, year 2009 was the quietest for about 82% of the time. (2) The composition of themore » quiet-time suprathermal heavy-ion population ({sup 3}He, C-through-Fe) correlates well with the level of solar activity, exhibiting SEP-like composition signatures during solar maximum, and CIR- or solar wind-like composition during solar minimum. (3) The heavy-ion (C–Fe) spectra exhibit suprathermal tails at energies of 0.11–0.32 MeV nucleon{sup −1} with power-law spectral indices ranging from 1.40 to 2.97. Fe spectra soften (steepen, i.e., spectral index increases) smoothly with increasing energies compared with Fe, indicating a rollover behavior of Fe at higher energies (0.45–1.28 MeV nucleon{sup −1}). (4) Spectral indices of Fe and O do not appear to exhibit clear solar cycle dependence. (2) and (3) imply that during IP quiet times and at energies above ∼0.1 MeV nucleon{sup −1}, the IP medium is dominated by material from prior solar and interplanetary events. We discuss the implications of these extended observations in the context of the current understanding of the suprathermal ion population near 1 au.« less

Elemental and charge state composition of the fast solar wind observed with SMS instruments on WIND

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloeckler, G.; Galvin, A. B.; Ipavich, F. M.; Hamilton, D. C.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.; Fisk, L. A.; Wilken, B.

1995-01-01

The elemental composition and charge state distributions of heavy ions of the solar wind provide essential information about: (1) atom-ion separation processes in the solar atmosphere leading to the 'FIP effect' (the overabundance of low First Ionization potential (FIP) elements in the solar wind compared to the photosphere); and (2) coronal temperature profiles, as well as mechanisms which heat the corona and accelerate the solar wind. This information is required for solar wind acceleration models. The SWICS instrument on Ulysses measures for all solar wind flow conditions the relative abundance of about 8 elements and 20 charge states of the solar wind. Furthermore, the Ulysses high-latitude orbit provides an unprecedented look at the solar wind from the polar coronal holes near solar minimum conditions. The MASS instrument on the WIND spacecraft is a high-mass resolution solar wind ion mass spectrometer that will provide routinely not only the abundances and charge state of all elements easily measured with SWICS, but also of N, Mg, S. The MASS sensor was fully operational at the end of 1994 and has sampled the in-ecliptic solar wind composition in both the slow and the corotating fast streams. This unique combination of SWICS on Ulysses and MASS on WIND allows us to view for the first time the solar wind from two regions of the large coronal hole. Observations with SWICS in the coronal hole wind: (1) indicate that the FIP effect is small; and (2) allow us determine the altitude of the maximum in the electron temperature profile, and indicate a maximum temperature of approximately 1.5 MK. New results from the SMS instruments on Wind will be compared with results from SWICS on Ulysses.

Systems efficiency and specific mass estimates for direct and indirect solar-pumped closed-cycle high-energy lasers in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monson, D. J.

1978-01-01

Based on expected advances in technology, the maximum system efficiency and minimum specific mass have been calculated for closed-cycle CO and CO2 electric-discharge lasers (EDL's) and a direct solar-pumped laser in space. The efficiency calculations take into account losses from excitation gas heating, ducting frictional and turning losses, and the compressor efficiency. The mass calculations include the power source, radiator, compressor, fluids, ducting, laser channel, optics, and heat exchanger for all of the systems; and in addition the power conditioner for the EDL's and a focusing mirror for the solar-pumped laser. The results show the major component masses in each system, show which is the lightest system, and provide the necessary criteria for solar-pumped lasers to be lighter than the EDL's. Finally, the masses are compared with results from other studies for a closed-cycle CO2 gasdynamic laser (GDL) and the proposed microwave satellite solar power station (SSPS).

Predicting the Where and the How Big of Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Graham; Leka, K. D.; Gilchrist, Stuart

2017-08-01

The approach to predicting solar flares generally characterizes global properties of a solar active region, for example the total magnetic flux or the total length of a sheared magnetic neutral line, and compares new data (from which to make a prediction) to similar observations of active regions and their associated propensity for flare production. We take here a different tack, examining solar active regions in the context of their energy storage capacity. Specifically, we characterize not the region as a whole, but summarize the energy-release prospects of different sub-regions within, using a sub-area analysis of the photospheric boundary, the CFIT non-linear force-free extrapolation code, and the Minimum Current Corona model. We present here early results from this approach whose objective is to understand the different pathways available for regions to release stored energy, thus eventually providing better estimates of the where (what sub-areas are storing how much energy) and the how big (how much energy is stored, and how much is available for release) of solar flares.

Quiet-time properties of low-energy (less than 10 MeV per nucleon) interplanetary ions during solar maximum and solar minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Reames, D. V.; Wenzel, K.-P.; Rodriguez-Pacheco, J.

1990-01-01

The abundances and spectra of 1-10 MeV per nucleon protons, He-3, He-4, C, O, and Fe have been exmained during solar quiet periods from 1978 to 1987 in an effort to investigate the recent suggestion by Wenzel et al. (1990) that the ions may be of solar origin. It is found that the intensities of the ions, other than O, fall by an order of magnitude between solar maximum and solar minimum, and that the greater than 1 MeV per nucleon ions exhibit weak streaming away from the sun. More significantly, the quiet-time ions during solar maximum have He-3-rich and Fe-rich abundances which are established characteristics of small impulsive solar flares. Thus, it is suggested that small unresolved impulsive flares make a substantial contribution to the 'quiet-time' fluxes. He-4 from these flares may also contribute strongly to the ion spectra that were reported for the 35-1600 keV energy range by Wenzel et al.

Validation of the technique for absolute total electron content and differential code biases estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mylnikova, Anna; Yasyukevich, Yury; Yasyukevich, Anna

2017-04-01

We have developed a technique for vertical total electron content (TEC) and differential code biases (DCBs) estimation using data from a single GPS/GLONASS station. The algorithm is based on TEC expansion into Taylor series in space and time (TayAbsTEC). We perform the validation of the technique using Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) computed by Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). We compared differences between absolute vertical TEC (VTEC) from GIM and VTEC evaluated by TayAbsTEC for 2009 year (solar activity minimum - sunspot number about 0), and for 2014 year (solar activity maximum - sunspot number 110). Since there is difference between VTEC from CODE and VTEC from JPL, we compare TayAbsTEC VTEC with both of them. We found that TayAbsTEC VTEC is closer to CODE VTEC than to JPL VTEC. The difference between TayAbsTEC VTEC and GIM VTEC is more noticeable for solar activity maximum (2014) than for solar activity minimum (2009) for both CODE and JPL. The distribution of VTEC differences is close to Gaussian distribution, so we conclude that results of TayAbsTEC are in the agreement with GIM VTEC. We also compared DCBs evaluated by TayAbsTEC and DCBs from GIM, computed by CODE. The TayAbsTEC DCBs are in good agreement with CODE DCBs for GPS satellites, but differ noticeable for GLONASS. We used DCBs to correct slant TEC to find out which DCBs give better results. Slant TEC correction with CODE DCBs produces negative and nonphysical TEC values. Slant TEC correction with TayAbsTEC DCBs doesn't produce such artifacts. The technique we developed is used for VTEC and DCBs calculation given only local GPS/GLONASS networks data. The evaluated VTEC data are in GIM framework which is handy when various data analyses are made.

Solar Energetic Particle Composition over Two Solar Cycles as Observed by the Ulysses/HISCALE and ACE/EPAM Pulse Height Analyzers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, J. D.; Madanian, H.; Manweiler, J. W.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

2017-12-01

We present the compositional variation in the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) population in the inner heliosphere over two solar cycles using data from the Ulysses Heliospheric Instrument for Spectra, Composition, and Anisotropy at Low Energies (HISCALE) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM). The Ulysses mission was active from late 1990 to mid-2009 in a heliopolar orbit inclined by 80° with a perihelion of 1.3 AU and an aphelion of 5.4 AU. The ACE mission has been active since its launch in late 1997 and is in a halo orbit about L1. These two missions provide a total of 27 years of continuous observation in the inner heliosphere with twelve years of simultaneous observation. HISCALE and EPAM data provide species-resolved differential flux and density of SEP between 0.5-5 MeV/nuc. Several ion species (He, C, O, Ne, Si, Fe) are identified using the Pulse Height Analyzer (PHA) system of the Composition Aperture for both instruments. The He density shows a noticeable increase at high solar activity followed by a moderate drop at the quiet time of the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24. The density of heavier ions (i.e. O and Fe) change minimally with respect to the F10.7 index variations however, certain energy-specific count rates decrease during solar minimum. With Ulysses and ACE observing in different regions of the inner heliosphere, there are significant latitudinal differences in how the O/He ratios vary with the solar cycle. At solar minimum, there is reasonable agreement between the observations from both instruments. At solar max 23, the differences in composition over the course of the solar cycle, and as observed at different heliospheric locations can provide insight to the origins of and acceleration processes differentially affecting solar energetic ions.

Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. B.; Vazquez, M. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Atwell, W.; Kin, M.-H. Y.

2000-01-01

It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus are that the probability of any particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. The extra shielding provided in the equipment room makes little difference in these numbers. We conclude that this decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) does not provide a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars. This conclusion could be revised, however, if a very small number of hits is found to cause critical malfunction within the brain.

QBO/solar modulation of the boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation: A prediction for the coming solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Lon L.

2017-04-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Principle of Minimum Energy in Magnetic Reconnection in a Self-organized Critical Model for Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhang, Nastaran; Safari, Hossein; Wheatland, Michael S.

2018-05-01

Solar flares are an abrupt release of magnetic energy in the Sun’s atmosphere due to reconnection of the coronal magnetic field. This occurs in response to turbulent flows at the photosphere that twist the coronal field. Similar to earthquakes, solar flares represent the behavior of a complex system, and expectedly their energy distribution follows a power law. We present a statistical model based on the principle of minimum energy in a coronal loop undergoing magnetic reconnection, which is described as an avalanche process. We show that the distribution of peaks for the flaring events in this self-organized critical system is scale-free. The obtained power-law index of 1.84 ± 0.02 for the peaks is in good agreement with satellite observations of soft X-ray flares. The principle of minimum energy can be applied for general avalanche models to describe many other phenomena.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE 2010 JULY 11 ECLIPSE WHITE-LIGHT CORONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasachoff, J. M.; Rusin, V.; Saniga, M.

The white-light corona (WLC) during the total solar eclipse on 2010 July 11 was observed by several teams in the Moon's shadow stretching across the Pacific Ocean and a number of isolated islands. We present a comparison of the WLC as observed by eclipse teams located on the Tatakoto Atoll in French Polynesia and on Easter Island, 83 minutes later, combined with near-simultaneous space observations. The eclipse was observed at the beginning of the solar cycle, not long after solar minimum. Nevertheless, the solar corona shows a plethora of different features (coronal holes, helmet streamers, polar rays, very faint loopsmore » and radial-oriented thin streamers, a coronal mass ejection, and a puzzling 'curtain-like' object above the north pole). Comparing the observations from the two sites enables us to detect some dynamic phenomena. The eclipse observations are further compared with a hairy-ball model of the magnetic field and near-simultaneous images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, the Sun Watcher, using Active Pixel System Detector and Image Processing on ESA's PRoject for Onboard Autonomy, and the Naval Research Laboratory's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph on ESA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The Ludendorff flattening coefficient is 0.156, matching the expected ellipticity of coronal isophotes at 2 Rs{sub un}, for this rising phase of the solar-activity cycle.« less

Three-Dimensional Evolution of Flux-Rope CMEs and Its Relation to the Local Orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isavnin, A.; Vourlidas, A.; Kilpua, E. K. J.

2014-06-01

Flux ropes ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution, which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar flux ropes evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space-weather forecasting tools. We present a follow-up study of the concepts described by Isavnin, Vourlidas, and Kilpua ( Solar Phys. 284, 203, 2013). We analyze 14 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear flux-rope signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. First, we estimate initial orientations of the flux ropes at the origin using extreme-ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations of the CMEs from ≈ 2 to 30 R⊙ with a three-dimensional geometric representation of a flux rope to determine their geometrical parameters. Finally, we propagate the flux ropes from ≈ 30 R⊙ to 1 AU through MHD-simulated background solar wind while using in-situ measurements at 1 AU of the associated magnetic cloud as a constraint for the propagation technique. This methodology allows us to estimate the flux-rope orientation all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. We find that while the flux-ropes' deflection occurs predominantly below 30 R⊙, a significant amount of deflection and rotation happens between 30 R⊙ and 1 AU. We compare the flux-rope orientation to the local orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). We find that slow flux ropes tend to align with the streams of slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere. During the solar-cycle minimum the slow solar-wind channel as well as the HCS usually occupy the area in the vicinity of the solar equatorial plane, which in the past led researchers to the hypothesis that flux ropes align with the HCS. Our results show that exceptions from this rule are explained by interaction with the Parker-spiraled background magnetic field, which dominates over the magnetic interaction with the HCS in the inner heliosphere at least during solar-minimum conditions.

Modeling a simple coronal streamer during whole sun month

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, S. E.; Bagenal, F.; Biesecker, D.; Guhathakurta, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Thompson, B. J.

1997-01-01

The solar minimum streamer structure observed during the whole sun month was modeled. The Van de Hulst inversion was used in order to determine the coronal electron density profiles and scale-height temperature profiles. The axisymmetric magnetostatic model of Gibson, Bagenal and Low was also used. The density, temperature, and magnetic field distribution were quantified using both coronal white light data and photospheric magnetic field data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory. The densities and temperatures obtained by the Van de Hulst and magnetostatic models are compared to the magnetic field predicted by the magnetostatic model to a potential field extrapolated from the photosphere.

Dish Stirling solar receiver program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haglund, R. A.

1980-01-01

A technology demonstration of a Dish Stirling solar thermal electric system can be accomplished earlier and at a much lower cost than previous planning had indicated by employing technical solutions that allow already existing hardware, with minimum modifications, to be integrated into a total system with a minimum of development. The DSSR operates with a modified United Stirling p-40 engine/alternator and the JPL Test Bed Concentrator as a completely integrated solar thermal electric system having a design output of 25 kWe. The system is augmented by fossil fuel combustion which ensures a continuous electrical output under all environmental conditions. Technical and economic studies by government and industry in the United States and abroad identify the Dish Stirling solar electric system as the most appropriate, efficient and economical method for conversion of solar energy to electricity in applications when the electrical demand is 10 MWe and less.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Bashful ballerina: Southward shifted heliospheric current sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Hiltula, T.

2003-11-01

It is known since long [Rosenberg and Coleman, 1969] that one of the two sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at the Earth's orbit dominates at high heliographic latitudes during solar minimum times, reflecting the poloidal structure of the global solar magnetic field at these times. Here we find that while this latitudinal variation of the dominant IMF sector around the solar equator is valid for both solar hemispheres during the last four solar minima covered by direct observations, it is systematically more strongly developed in the northern heliographic hemisphere. This implies that the average heliospheric current sheet is shifted or coned southward during solar minimum times, suggesting that the temporary southward shift of the heliosheet found earlier by Ulysses observations in 1995 is a persistent pattern. This also implies that the open solar magnetic field is north-south asymmetric at these times, suggesting that the solar dynamo has an asymmetric component. Accordingly, the Sun with the heliosheet is like a bashful ballerina who is repeatedly trying to push her excessively high flaring skirt downward. However, the effective shift at 1 AU is only a few degrees, allowing the Rosenberg-Coleman rule to be valid, on an average, in both hemispheres during solar minima.

Bashful Ballerina: Southward shifted Heliospheric Current Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.; Hiltula, T.

It is known since long (Rosenberg and Coleman, 1969) that one of the two sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at the Earth's orbit dominates at high heliographic latitudes during solar minimum times, reflecting the poloidal structure of the global solar magnetic field at these times. Here we find that while this latitudinal variation of the dominant IMF sector around the solar equator is valid for both solar hemispheres during the last four solar minima covered by direct observations, it is systematically more strongly developed in the northern heliographic hemisphere. This implies that the average heliospheric current sheet is shifted or coned southward during solar minimum times, suggesting that the temporary southward shift of the heliosheet found earlier by Ulysses observations in 1995 is a persistent pattern. This also implies that the open solar magnetic field is north-south asymmetric at these times, suggesting that the solar dynamo has an asymmetric component. Accordingly, the Sun with the heliosheet is like a bashful ballerina who is repeatedly trying to push her excessively high flaring skirt downward. However, the effective shift at 1 AU is only a few degrees, allowing the Rosenberg-Coleman rule to be valid, on an average, in both hemispheres during solar minima.

Comparing the solar magnetic field in the corona and in the inner heliosphere during solar cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2009-04-01

We compare the open solar magnetic field estimated by the PFSS model based on the WSO photospheric field observations, with the inner heliospheric magnetic field. We trace the observed radial HMF into the coronal PFSS boundary at 2.5 solar radii using the observed solar wind velocity, and determine the PFSS model field at the line-of-sight footpoint. Comparing the two field values, we calculate the power n of the apparent decrease of the radial field. According to expectations based on Maxwell's equations, also reproduced by Parker's HMF model, the radial HMF field should decrease with n=2. However, comparison gives considerably lower values of n, indicating the effect of HCS in the PFSS model and the possible superexpansion. The n values vary with solar cycle, being roughly 1.3-1.4 at minima and about 1.7 at maxima. Interestingly, the n values for the two HMF sectors show systematic differences in the late declining to minimum phase, with smaller n values for the HMF sector dominant in the northern hemisphere. This is in agreement with the smaller field value in the northern hemisphere and the southward shifted HCS, summarized by the concept of the bashful ballerina. We also find that the values of n during the recent years, in the late declining phase of solar cycle 23, are significantly larger than during the same phase of the previous cycles. This agrees with the exceptionally large tilt of the solar dipole at the end of cycle 23. We also find that the bashful ballerina appears even during SC 23 but the related hemispheric differences are smaller than during the previous cycles.

Detection of large scale geomagnetic pulsations by MAGDAS-egypt stations during the solar minimum of the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathy, Ibrahim

2016-07-01

This paper presents a statistical study of different types of large-scale geomagnetic pulsation (Pc3, Pc4, Pc5 and Pi2) detected simultaneously by two MAGDAS stations located at Fayum (Geo. Coordinates 29.18 N and 30.50 E) and Aswan (Geo. Coordinates 23.59 N and 32.51 E) in Egypt. The second order butter-worth band-pass filter has been used to filter and analyze the horizontal H-component of the geomagnetic field in one-second data. The data was collected during the solar minimum of the current solar cycle 24. We list the most energetic pulsations detected by the two stations instantaneously, in addition; the average amplitude of the pulsation signals was calculated.

On the Occurrence of Afternoon Counter Electrojet Over Indian Longitudes During June Solstice in Solar Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Kuldeep; Sekar, R.; Anandarao, B. G.; Gupta, S. P.; Chakrabarty, D.

2018-03-01

Studies made earlier using ground-based observations of geomagnetic field over the Indian longitudes revealed that the occurrence of equatorial counter electrojet (CEJ) events in afternoon hours is more frequent during June solstice (May-June-July-August) in solar minimum than in other periods. In general, the June solstice solar minimum CEJ events occur between 1500 local time (LT) and 1800 LT with peak strength of about -10 nT at around 1600 LT. In order to understand the frequent occurrence of these CEJ events, an investigation is carried out using an equatorial electrojet model (Anandarao, 1976, https://doi.org/10.1029/GL003i009p00545) and the empirical vertical drift model by Fejer et al. (2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA012801). The strength, duration, peak value, and the occurrence time of CEJ obtained using electrojet model match remarkably well with the corresponding observation of average geomagnetic field variations. The occurrence of CEJ is found to be due to solar quiet (Sq) electric field in the westward direction which is manifested as downward drift in Fejer et al. (2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA012801) model output during 1500-1800 LT. Further, the occurrence of afternoon reversal of Sq electric field in this season is shown to be consistent with earlier studies from Indian sector. Therefore, this investigation provides explicit evidence for the role of westward Sq electric field on the generation of afternoon CEJ during June solstice in solar minimum periods over the Indian sector indicating the global nature of these CEJ events.

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

PubMed

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2013-05-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

Role of the Coronal Alfvén Speed in Modulating the Solar-wind Helium Abundance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.-M.

2016-12-01

The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ˜0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ˜0.01 at solar minimum to ˜0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995-2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v A in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v A near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v A and the relative speed of α-particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars' Moon Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zu Qun; de Carufel, Guy; Crues, Edwin Z.; Bielski, Paul

2016-01-01

This study used high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting conditions over one Martian year are presented, which include the duration of solar eclipses, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, and radiant exposure for both sun tracking and fixed solar arrays. The results show that: Phobos' solar eclipse time varies throughout the Martian year, with longer eclipse durations during the Martian northern spring and fall seasons and no eclipses during the Martian northern summer and winter seasons; solar radiation intensity is close to minimum in late spring and close to maximum in late fall; exposure time per orbit is relatively constant over the surface during the spring and fall but varies with latitude during the summer and winter; and Sun tracking solar arrays generate more energy than a fixed solar array. A usage example of the result is also present in this paper to demonstrate the utility.

Galactic CR in the Heliosphere according to NM data, 3. Results for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, L.; Dorman, I.; Iucci, N.; Parisi, M.; Villoresi, G.; Zukerman, I.

We found that the maximum of correlation coefficient between cosmic ray (CR) intensity and solar activity (SA) variations is occurred for even cycles 20 and 22 for about two-three times in the shorter time than for odd cycles 19 and 21. We came to conclusion that this difference is caused by CR drift effects: during even cycle drifts produced the small increasing of CR global modulation (additional to the caused by convection-diffusion mechanism) in the period from minimum to maximum of SA, and after the maximum of SA up to the minimum- about the same decreasing of CR modulation. This gives sufficient decreasing of observed time lag between CR and- SA in even solar cycles. We analyzed monthly and 11 months smoothed data of (CR) intensity observed by neutron monitors with different cut-off rigidities for even solar cycles 20 and 22. We use a special model described the connection between solar activity (characterized by monthly sunspot numbers) and CR convection- diff usion global modulation with taking into account time-lag of processes in the Heliosphere relative to the active processes on the Sun. For taking into account drifts we use models described in literature. In the first we correct observed long-term CR modulation on drifts with different amplitudes from 0 (no drifts), then 0.15%, 0.25%,... up to 4%. For each expected amplitude of drifts we determine the correlation coefficient between expected CR variations and observed by neutron monitors with different cut - off rigidities for different times of solar wind transportation from the Sun to the boundary of the modulation region from 1 to 60 average months (it corresponds approximately to dimension of modulation region from about 6 to 360 AU). We compare observed res ults for even solar cycles 20 and 22.

C-14 and temperature variation around and after AD 775 - after the Dark Age Grand Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.

2016-04-01

We have compiled an extensive catalog of aurora observations from the Far and Near East as well as Europe for the time from AD 550 to 845. From historic observations of aurorae and sunspots as well as the C-14 and Be-10 data, we can date the end of the Dark Age grand minimum to about AD 690; we see strong activity after this period. We can fix the solar activity Schwabe cycle maxima and minima in the 7th and 8th centuries.. The strong 14-C increase in data with 1-yr time resolution in the AD 770s (e.g. Miyake et al. 2012) is still a matter of debate, e.g. a solar super-flare. In the last three millennia, there were two more strong rapid rises in 14-C - around BC 671 and AD 1795. All three 14-C variations are embedded in similar evolution of solar activity, as we can show with various solar activity proxies; secular evolution of solar wind plays an important role. The rises of 14-C - within a few years each - can be explained by a sudden strong decrease in solar modulation potential leading to increased radioisotope production. The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects: (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. In addition to arXiv:1503.01581 and arXiv:1508.06745, we also discuss the temperature depression and new quasi-annual 10-Be data. If a temperature depression right after AD 775 for a few decades can be confirmed, this would be fully consistent with our suggestion: reduced solar activity since AD 775 (for a few decades like in the Dalton minimum). Otherwise, one would not expect such a temperature depression after a solar super-flare.

OSO 8 observations of wave propagation in the solar chromosphere and transition region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chipman, E. G.

1978-01-01

The University of Colorado instrument on OSO 8 has been used to observe relative phases of the 300-s intensity variation between the temperature-minimum region and several emission lines formed in the solar chromosphere and chromosphere-corona transition region. The lines used are due to Fe II, Si II, C II, Si IV, and C IV. The scattered light in the spectrograph, which originates almost entirely in the spectral region between 1700 and 1900 A, was used as a probe of the temperature-minimum region. The lines of Fe II, Si II, and C II show almost identical delays of approximately 30 s relative to the temperature minimum, while the intensity oscillations of the lines of Si IV and C IV appear to lead the temperature-minimum intensity oscillations by about 10 s.

A reference solar spectral irradiance for use in atmospheric modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The present state of knowledge concerning the absolute magnitude and temporal variability of the solar spectral irradiance is outlined with emphasis on wavelengths relevant to the mesosphere and stratosphere. Reference spectra for the wavelength region 175 to 850 nm are presented including estimates for solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. Values for the Lyman alpha emission are given separately.

Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlesinger, B. M.; Cebula, R. P.; Heath, D. F.; Deland, M. T.; Hudson, R. D.

1990-01-01

Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes.

Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, N. A.; Vieira, L. E. A.; Solanki, S. K.

2010-12-01

Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth's climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth's upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115-160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%).

On-Orbit Reconfigurable Solar Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, Robert K. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

In one or more embodiments, the present disclosure teaches a method for reconfiguring a solar array. The method involves providing, for the solar array, at least one string of solar cells. The method further involves deactivating at least a portion of at least one of the strings of solar cells of the solar array when power produced by the solar array reaches a maximum power allowance threshold. In addition, the method involves activating at least a portion of at least one of the strings of the solar cells in the solar array when the power produced by the solar array reaches a minimum power allowance threshold.

TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE PROTON FLUX MEASURED BY PAMELA DURING THE 2006 JULY-2009 DECEMBER SOLAR MINIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adriani, O.; Bongi, M.; Barbarino, G. C.

2013-03-10

The energy spectra of galactic cosmic rays carry fundamental information regarding their origin and propagation. These spectra, when measured near Earth, are significantly affected by the solar magnetic field. A comprehensive description of the cosmic radiation must therefore include the transport and modulation of cosmic rays inside the heliosphere. During the end of the last decade, the Sun underwent a peculiarly long quiet phase well suited to study modulation processes. In this paper we present proton spectra measured from 2006 July to 2009 December by PAMELA. The large collected statistics of protons allowed the time variation to be followed onmore » a nearly monthly basis down to 400 MV. Data are compared with a state-of-the-art three-dimensional model of solar modulation.« less

Geomagnetic activity during 10 - 11 solar cycles that has been observed by old Russian observatories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seredyn, Tomasz; Wysokinski, Arkadiusz; Kobylinski, Zbigniew; Bialy, Jerzy

2016-07-01

A good knowledge of solar-terrestrial relations during past solar activity cycles could give the appropriate tools for a correct space weather forecast. The paper focuses on the analysis of the historical collections of the ground based magnetic observations and their operational indices from the period of two sunspot solar cycles 10 - 11, period 1856 - 1878 (Bartels rotations 324 - 635). We use hourly observations of H and D geomagnetic field components registered at Russian stations: St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk, Barnaul, Ekaterinburg, Nertshinsk, Sitka, and compare them to the data obtained from the Helsinki observatory. We compare directly these records and also calculated from the data of the every above mentioned station IHV indices introduced by Svalgaard (2003), which have been used for further comparisons in epochs of assumed different polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We used also local index C9 derived by Zosimovich (1981) from St. Petersburg - Pavlovsk data. Solar activity is represented by sunspot numbers. The correlative and continuous wavelet analyses are applied for estimation of the correctness of records from different magnetic stations. We have specially regard to magnetic storms in the investigated period and the special Carrington event of 1-2 Sep 1859. Generally studied magnetic time series correctly show variability of the geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity presents some delay in relation to solar one as it is seen especially during descending and minimum phase of the even 11-year cycle. This pattern looks similarly in the case of 16 - 17 solar cycles.

Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

Relation between Pressure Balance Structures and Polar Plumes from Ulysses High Latitude Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamauchi, Yohei; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, Takashi

2002-01-01

Ulysses observations have shown that pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in high-latitude, fast solar wind near solar minimum. Previous studies of Ulysses/SWOOPS plasma data suggest these PBSs may be remnants of coronal polar plumes. Here we find support for this suggestion in an analysis of PBS magnetic structure. We used Ulysses magnetometer data and applied a minimum variance analysis to magnetic discontinuities in PBSs. We found that PBSs preferentially contain tangential discontinuities, as opposed to rotational discontinuities and to non-PBS regions in the solar wind. This suggests that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids that may be associated with network activity at the base of plumes.

Relation Between Pressure Balance Structures and Polar Plumes from Ulysses High Latitude Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yamauchi, Y.; Suess, Steven T.; Sakurai, T.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Ulysses observations have shown that pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in high-latitude, fast solar wind near solar minimum. Previous studies of Ulysses/SWOOPS plasma data suggest these PBSs may be remnants of coronal polar plumes. Here we find support for this suggestion in an analysis of PBS magnetic structure. We used Ulysses magnetometer data and applied a minimum variance analysis to discontinuities. We found that PBSs preferentially contain tangential discontinuities, as opposed to rotational discontinuities and to non-PBS regions in the solar wind. This suggests that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids that may be associated with network activity at the base of plumes.

Influence of geomagnetic activity and atmospheric pressure on human arterial pressure during the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azcárate, T.; Mendoza, B.; Levi, J. R.

2016-11-01

We performed a study of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) arterial blood pressure behavior under natural variables such as the atmospheric pressure (AtmP) and the horizontal geomagnetic field component (H). We worked with a sample of 304 healthy normotense volunteers, 152 men and 152 women, with ages between 18 and 84 years in Mexico City during the period 2008-2014, corresponding to the minimum, ascending and maximum phases of the solar cycle 24. The data was divided by gender, age and day/night cycle. We studied the time series using three methods: Correlations, bivariate and superposed epochs (within a window of three days around the day of occurrence of a geomagnetic storm) analysis, between the SBP and DBP and the natural variables (AtmP and H). The correlation analysis indicated correlation between the SBP and DBP and AtmP and H, being the largest during the night. Furthermore, the correlation and bivariate analysis showed that the largest correlations are between the SBP and DBP and the AtmP. The superposed epoch analysis found that the largest number of significant SBP and DBP changes occurred for women. Finally, the blood pressure changes are larger during the solar minimum and ascending solar cycle phases than during the solar maximum; the storms of the minimum were more intense than those of the maximum and this could be the reason of behavior of the blood pressure changes along the solar cycle.

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E.; Barnard, Luke; Beer, Jürg; Charbonneau, Paul; Clilverd, Mark A.; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Haberreiter, Margit; Hendry, Aaron; Jackman, Charles H.; Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Kruschke, Tim; Kunze, Markus; Langematz, Ulrike; Marsh, Daniel R.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Misios, Stergios; Rodger, Craig J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Seppälä, Annika; Shangguan, Ming; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Tourpali, Kleareti; Usoskin, Ilya; van de Kamp, Max; Verronen, Pekka T.; Versick, Stefan

2017-06-01

This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850-2014), and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2-NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m-2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of -0.04 W m-2. In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of -0.35 K day-1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (-1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (-3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day-1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ˜ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry-climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

2004-01-01

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, D. H.

2000-01-01

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Evaluation of long term solar activity effects on GPS derived TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Ahmad, Rafi; Atulkar, Roshni; M, Aslam A.; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Malvi, Bhupendra; Purohit, P. K.; Gwal, A. K.

2016-10-01

The solar activity hence the solar radiance follows a long term periodic variability with eleven years periodicity, known as solar cycle. This drives the long term variability of the ionosphere. In the present problem we investigate the long term behaviour of the ionosphere with the eleven year cyclic solar activity. Under the present study we characterize the ionospheric variability by Total Electron Content (TEC) using measurements made by Global Positioning System (GPS) and solar cycle variability by various solar activity indices. We make use of five solar activity indices viz. sunspot number (Rz), solar radio Flux (F10.7 cm), EUV Flux (26-34 nm), flare index and CME occurrences. The long term variability of these solar activity indices were then compared and correlated with the variability of ionospheric TEC, at a mid latitude station, Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), of Japan, during the solar cycle 23 and ascending phase of cycle 24. From our study, we found that long term changes in the ionospheric TEC vary synchronously with corresponding changes in the solar activity indices. The correlation analysis shows that all the solar activity indices exhibit a very strong correlation with TEC (R =0.76 -0.99). Moreover the correlation between the two is stronger in the descending phase of the solar cycle. The correlation is found to be remarkably strongest during the deep minimum of the solar cycle 24 i.e. between 2007- 2009. Also we noticed a hysteresis effect exists with solar radio flux (F10.7 cm) and solar EUV flux (26-34 nm). This effect is absent with other parameters.

The investigation of solar activity signals by analyzing of tree ring chronological scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickiforov, M. G.

2017-07-01

The present study examines the ability of detecting short-cycles and global minima of solar activity by analyzing dendrochronologies. Starting with the study of Douglass, which was devoted to the question of climatic cycles and the growth of trees, it is believed that the analysis of dendrochronologies allows to detect the cycle of Wolf-Schwabe. According to his results, the cycle was absent during Maunder's minimum and appeared after its completion. Having checked Douglass's conclusions by using 10 dendrochronologies of yellow pines from Arizona, which cover the time period from 1600 to 1900, we have come to the opposite results. The verification shows that: a) none of the considered dendroscale allows to detect an 11-year cycle; 2) the behaviour of a short peroid-signal does not undergo significant changes before, during or after Maunder's minimum. A similar attempt to detect global minima of solar activity by using five dendrochronologies from different areas has not led to positive results. On the one hand, the signal of global extremum is not always recorded in dendrochronology, on the other hand, the deep depression of annual rings allows to suppose the existence of a global minimum of solar activity, which is actually absent.

THE CHROMOSPHERIC SOLAR MILLIMETER-WAVE CAVITY ORIGINATES IN THE TEMPERATURE MINIMUM REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De la Luz, Victor; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Lara, Alejandro

2013-01-10

We present a detailed theoretical analysis of the local radio emission at the lower part of the solar atmosphere. To accomplish this, we have used a numerical code to simulate the emission and transport of high-frequency electromagnetic waves from 2 GHz up to 10 THz. As initial conditions, we used VALC, SEL05, and C7 solar chromospheric models. In this way, the generated synthetic spectra allow us to study the local emission and absorption processes with high resolution in both altitude and frequency. Associated with the temperature minimum predicted by these models, we found that the local optical depth at millimetermore » wavelengths remains constant, producing an optically thin layer that is surrounded by two layers of high local emission. We call this structure the Chromospheric Solar Millimeter-wave Cavity (CSMC). The temperature profile, which features temperature minimum layers and a subsequent temperature rise, produces the CSMC phenomenon. The CSMC shows the complexity of the relation between the theoretical temperature profile and the observed brightness temperature and may help us to understand the dispersion of the observed brightness temperature in the millimeter wavelength range.« less

Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, D. F.; Howard, R. A.; St. Cyr, O. C.; Vourlidas, A.

2017-12-01

The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a “floor” in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to ∼3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Near-Earth Solar Wind During 1996-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.

2003-01-01

We summarize the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996-2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23. In particular, we give a detailed list of such events. This list, based on in-situ observations, is not confined to subsets of ICMEs, such as magnetic clouds or those preceded by halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph, and provides an overview of 214 ICMEs in the near-Earth solar wind during this period. The ICME rate increases by about an order of magnitude from solar minimum to solar maximum (when the rate is approximately 3 ICMEs/solar rotation period). The rate also shows a temporary reduction during 1999, and another brief, deeper reduction in late 2000-early 2001, which only approximately track variations in the solar 10 cm flux. In addition, there are occasional periods of several rotations duration when the ICME rate is enhanced in association with high solar activity levels. We find an indication of a periodic variation in the ICME rate, with a prominent period of approximately 165 days similar to that previously reported in various solar phenomena. It is found that the fraction of ICMEs that are magnetic clouds has a solar cycle variation, the fraction being larger near solar minimum. For the subset of events that we could associate with a CME at the Sun, the transit speeds from the Sun to the Earth were highest after solar maximum.

A stochastically forced time delay solar dynamo model: Self-consistent recovery from a maunder-like grand minimum necessitates a mean-field alpha effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu; Passos, Dário, E-mail: s.hazra@iiserkol.ac.in, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: dnandi@iiserkol.ac.in

Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspotmore » cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.« less

Common SphinX and RHESSI observations of solar flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mrozek, T.; Gburek, S.; Siarkowski, M.; Sylwester, B.; Sylwester, J.; Gryciuk, M.

The Polish X-ray spectrofotometer SphinX has observed a great number of solar flares in the year 2009 - during the most quiet solar minimum almost over the last 100 years. Hundreds of flares have been recorded due to excellent sensitivity of SphinX's detectors. The Si-PIN diodes are about 100 times more sensitive to X-rays than GOES X-ray Monitors. SphinX detectors were absolutely calibrated on Earth with a use of the BESSY synchrotron. In space observations were made in the range 1.2-15~keV with 480~eV energy resolution. SphinX data overlap with the low-energy end of the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) data. RHESSI detectors are quite old (7 years in 2009), but still sensitive enough to provide us with observations of extremely weak solar flares such as those which occurred in 2009. We have selected a group of flares simultaneously observed by RHESSI and SphinX and performed a spectroscopic analysis of the data. Moreover, we compared the physical parameters of these flares plasma. Preliminary results of the comparison show very good agreement between both instruments.

Gaussianity versus intermittency in solar system plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echim, M.

2014-12-01

Statistical properties of plasma and magnetic field fluctuations exhibit features linked with the dynamics of the targeted system and sometimes with the physical processes that are at the origin of these fluctuations. Intermittency is sometimes discussed in terms of non-Gaussianity of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of fluctuations for ranges of spatio/temporal scales. Some examples of self-similarity have been however shown for PDFs whose wings are not Gaussian. In this study we discuss intermittency in terms of non-Gaussianity as well as scale dependence of the higher order moments of PDFs, in particular the flatness. We use magnetic field and plasma data from several space missions, in the solar wind (Ulysses, Cluster, and Venus Express), and in the planetary magnetosheaths (Cluster and Venus Express). We analyze Ulysses data that satisfy a consolidated set of selection criteria able to identify "pure" fast and slow wind. We investigate Venus Express data close to the orbital apogee, in the solar wind, at 0.72 AU, and in the Venus magnetosheath. We study Cluster data in the solar wind (for time intervals not affected by planetary ions effects), and the magnetosheath. We organize our results in three solar wind data bases (one for the solar maximum, 1999-2001, two for the solar minimum, 1997-1998 and respectively, 2007-2008), and two planetary databases (one for the solar maximum, 2000-2001, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial magnetosphere, and one for the solar minimum, 2007-2008, that includes PDFs obtained in the terrestrial and Venus magnetospheres and magnetosheaths). In addition to investigating the statistical properties of fluctuations for the minimum and maximum of the solar cycle we also analyze the similarities and differences between fast and slow wind. We emphasize the importance of our data survey and analysis in the context of understanding the solar wind turbulence and complexity, and the exploitation of data bases and as a first step towards developing a (virtual) laboratory for studying solar system plasma turbulence and intermittency. Research supported by the European FP7 Programme (grant agreement 313038/STORM), and a grant of the Romanian CNCS -UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.

Transient flows of the solar wind associated with small-scale solar activity in solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slemzin, Vladimir; Veselovsky, Igor; Kuzin, Sergey; Gburek, Szymon; Ulyanov, Artyom; Kirichenko, Alexey; Shugay, Yulia; Goryaev, Farid

The data obtained by the modern high sensitive EUV-XUV telescopes and photometers such as CORONAS-Photon/TESIS and SPHINX, STEREO/EUVI, PROBA2/SWAP, SDO/AIA provide good possibilities for studying small-scale solar activity (SSA), which is supposed to play an important role in heating of the corona and producing transient flows of the solar wind. During the recent unusually weak solar minimum, a large number of SSA events, such as week solar flares, small CMEs and CME-like flows were observed and recorded in the databases of flares (STEREO, SWAP, SPHINX) and CMEs (LASCO, CACTUS). On the other hand, the solar wind data obtained in this period by ACE, Wind, STEREO contain signatures of transient ICME-like structures which have shorter duration (<10h), weaker magnetic field strength (<10 nT) and lower proton temperature than usual ICMEs. To verify the assumption that ICME-like transients may be associated with the SSA events we investigated the number of weak flares of C-class and lower detected by SPHINX in 2009 and STEREO/EUVI in 2010. The flares were classified on temperature and emission measure using the diagnostic means of SPHINX and Hinode/EIS and were confronted with the parameters of the solar wind (velocity, density, ion composition and temperature, magnetic field, pitch angle distribution of the suprathermal electrons). The outflows of plasma associated with the flares were identified by their coronal signatures - CMEs (only in few cases) and dimmings. It was found that the mean parameters of the solar wind projected to the source surface for the times of the studied flares were typical for the ICME-like transients. The results support the suggestion that weak flares can be indicators of sources of transient plasma flows contributing to the slow solar wind at solar minimum, although these flows may be too weak to be considered as separate CMEs and ICMEs. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement “eHeroes” (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

Galactic Cosmic-ray Transport in the Global Heliosphere: A Four-Dimensional Stochastic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florinski, V.

2009-04-01

We study galactic cosmic-ray transport in the outer heliosphere and heliosheath using a newly developed transport model based on stochastic integration of the phase-space trajectories of Parker's equation. The model employs backward integration of the diffusion-convection transport equation using Ito calculus and is four-dimensional in space+momentum. We apply the model to the problem of galactic proton transport in the heliosphere during a negative solar minimum. Model results are compared with the Voyager measurements of galactic proton radial gradients and spectra in the heliosheath. We show that the heliosheath is not as efficient in diverting cosmic rays during solar minima as predicted by earlier two-dimensional models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, X.; Florinski, V.

We present a new model that couples galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) propagation with magnetic turbulence transport and the MHD background evolution in the heliosphere. The model is applied to the problem of the formation of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during the last solar minimum from the period between 2007 and 2009. The numerical model simultaneously calculates the large-scale supersonic solar wind properties and its small-scale turbulent content from 0.3 au to the termination shock. Cosmic rays are then transported through the background, and thus computed, with diffusion coefficients derived from the solar wind turbulent properties, using a stochastic Parker approach. Ourmore » results demonstrate that GCR variations depend on the ratio of diffusion coefficients in the fast and slow solar winds. Stream interfaces inside the CIRs always lead to depressions of the GCR intensity. On the other hand, heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings do not appreciably affect GCR intensities in the model, which is consistent with the two observations under quiet solar wind conditions. Therefore, variations in diffusion coefficients associated with CIR stream interfaces are more important for GCR propagation than the drift effects of the HCS during a negative solar minimum.« less

Radiation measurements on the Mir Orbital Station.

PubMed

Badhwar, G D; Atwell, W; Reitz, G; Beaujean, R; Heinrich, W

2002-10-01

Radiation measurements made onboard the MIR Orbital Station have spanned nearly a decade and covered two solar cycles, including one of the largest solar particle events, one of the largest magnetic storms, and a mean solar radio flux level reaching 250 x 10(4) Jansky that has been observed in the last 40 years. The cosmonaut absorbed dose rates varied from about 450 microGy day-1 during solar minimum to approximately half this value during the last solar maximum. There is a factor of about two in dose rate within a given module, and a similar variation from module to module. The average radiation quality factor during solar minimum, using the ICRP-26 definition, was about 2.4. The drift of the South Atlantic Anomaly was measured to be 6.0 +/- 0.5 degrees W, and 1.6 +/- 0.5 degrees N. These measurements are of direct applicability to the International Space Station. This paper represents a comprehensive review of Mir Space Station radiation data available from a variety of sources. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Activity associated with coronal mass ejections at solar minimum - SMM observations from 1984-1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Webb, D. F.

1991-01-01

Seventy-three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the coronagraph aboard SMM between 1984 and 1986 were examined in order to determine the distribution of various forms of solar activity that were spatially and temporally associated with mass ejections during solar minimum phase. For each coronal mass ejection a speed was measured, and the departure time of the transient from the lower corona estimated. Other forms of solar activity that appeared within 45 deg longitude and 30 deg latitude of the mass ejection and within +/-90 min of its extrapolated departure time were explored. The statistical results of the analysis of these 73 CMEs are presented, and it is found that slightly less than half of them were infrequently associated with other forms of solar activity. It is suggested that the distribution of the various forms of activity related to CMEs does not change at different phases of the solar cycle. For those CMEs with associations, it is found that eruptive prominences and soft X-rays were the most likely forms of activity to accompany the appearance of mass ejections.

High-latitude spacecraft charging in low-Earth polar orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frooninckx, Thomas B.

Spacecraft charging within the upper ionosphere is commonly thought to be insignificant and thus has received little attention. Recent experimental evidence has shown that electric potential differences as severe as 680 volts can develop between Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar-orbiting (840 kilometers) spacecraft and their high-latitude environment. To explore space vehicle charging in this region more fully, an analysis was performed using DMSP F6, F7, F8, and F9 satellite precipitating particle and ambient plasma measurements taken during the winters of 1986-87 (solar minimum) and 1989-90 (solar maximum). An extreme solar cycle dependence was discovered as charging occurred more frequently and with greater severity during the period of solar minimum. One hundred seventy charging events ranging from -46 to 1,430 volts were identified, and satellite measurements and Time Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) output were used to characterize the environments which generated and inhibited these potentials. All current sources were considered to determine the cause of the solar cycle dependence.

HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRIES IN THE POLAR SOLAR WIND OBSERVED BY ULYSSES NEAR THE MINIMA OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 AND 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

2013-05-10

We examined solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations from Ulysses' first and third orbits to study hemispheric differences in the properties of the solar wind and IMF originating from the Sun's large polar coronal holes (PCHs) during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. We identified hemispheric asymmetries in several parameters, most notably {approx}15%-30% south-to-north differences in averages for the solar wind density, mass flux, dynamic pressure, and energy flux and the radial and total IMF magnitudes. These differences were driven by relatively larger, more variable solar wind density and radial IMF betweenmore » {approx}36 Degree-Sign S-60 Degree-Sign S during the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23. These observations indicate either a hemispheric asymmetry in the PCH output during the declining and minimum phase of solar cycles 22 and 23 with the southern hemisphere being more active than its northern counterpart, or a solar cycle effect where the PCH output in both hemispheres is enhanced during periods of higher solar activity. We also report a strong linear correlation between these solar wind and IMF parameters, including the periods of enhanced PCH output, that highlight the connection between the solar wind mass and energy output and the Sun's magnetic field. That these enhancements were not matched by similar sized variations in solar wind speed points to the mass and energy responsible for these increases being added to the solar wind while its flow was subsonic.« less

Power Generation Potential and Cost of a Roof Top Solar PV System in Kathmandu, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanjel, N.; Zhand, A.

2017-12-01

The paper presents a comparative study of the 3 most used solar PV module technologies in Nepal, which are Si-mono-crystalline, Si-poly-crystalline and Si-amorphous. The aim of the paper is to present and discuss the recorded Global Solar Radiation, received in the Kathmandu valley by three different, Si-mono-crystalline, Si-poly-crystalline and Si-amorphous calibrated solar cell pyranometers and to propose the best-suited solar PV module technology for roof top solar PV systems inside the Kathmandu valley. Data recorded over the course of seven months, thus covering most of the seasonal meteorological conditions determining Kathmandu valley's global solar radiation reception are presented. The results indicate that the Si-amorphous pyranometer captured 1.56% more global solar radiation than the Si-mono-crystalline and 18.4% more than Si-poly-crystalline pyranometer over the course of seven months. Among the three pyranometer technologies the maximum and minimum cell temperature was measured by the Si-mono-crystalline pyranometer. Following the technical data and discussion, an economical analysis, using the versatile software tool PVSYST V5.01is used to calculate the life cycle costs of a 1kW roof top solar PV RAPS system, with battery storage, and a 1kW roof top solar PV grid connected system with no energy storage facility, through simulations, using average recorded global solar radiation data for the KTM valley and investigated market values for each solar PV module and peripheral equipment costs.

CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLAR MERIDIONAL FLOWS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, Sarbani; Antia, H. M., E-mail: sarbani.basu@yale.ed, E-mail: antia@tifr.res.i

2010-07-01

We have analyzed available full-disk data from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO using the 'ring diagram' technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating toward the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find thatmore » the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high-latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.« less

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable secondmore » maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.« less

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

PubMed Central

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2012-01-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

Geomagnetic detection of the sectorial solar magnetic field and the historical peculiarity of minimum 23-24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, J.

2012-01-01

[1] Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activityaaindex covering solar cycle 11 to the beginning of 24, 1868–2011. Autocorrelation shows 27.0-d recurrent geomagnetic activity that is well-known to be prominent during solar-cycle minima; some minima also exhibit a smaller amount of 13.5-d recurrence. Previous work has shown that the recent solar minimum 23–24 exhibited 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence in geomagnetic and heliospheric data, but those recurrence intervals were not prominently present during the preceding minima 21–22 and 22–23. Using annual-averages and solar-cycle averages of autocorrelations of the historicalaadata, we put these observations into a long-term perspective: none of the 12 minima preceding 23–24 exhibited prominent 9.0 and 6.7-d geomagnetic activity recurrence. We show that the detection of these recurrence intervals can be traced to an unusual combination of sectorial spherical-harmonic structure in the solar magnetic field and anomalously low sunspot number. We speculate that 9.0 and 6.7-d recurrence is related to transient large-scale, low-latitude organization of the solar dynamo, such as seen in some numerical simulations.

The interplanetary and solar magnetic field sector structures, 1962 - 1968

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, D. E.

1972-01-01

The interplanetary magnetic field sector structure was observed from late 1962 through 1968. During this time it has been possible to study the manner in which the sector pattern and its relation to the photospheric magnetic field configuration changes from solar minimum to solar maximum. Observations were also made relating sector boundaries to specific regions on the solar disk. These and other observations related to the solar origin of the interplanetary field are briefly reviewed.

On a thermonuclear origin for the 1980-81 deep light minimum of the symbiotic nova PU Vul

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sion, Edward M.

1993-01-01

The puzzling 1980-81 deep light minimum of the symbiotic nova PU Vul is discussed in terms of a sequence of quasi-static evolutionary models of a hot, 0.5 solar mass white dwarf accreting H-rich matter at a rate 1 x 10 exp -8 solar mass/yr. On the basis of the morphological behavior of the models, it is suggested that the deep light minimum of PU Vul could have been the result of two successive, closely spaced, hydrogen shell flashes on an accreting white dwarf whose core thermal structure and accreted H-rich envelope was not in a long-term thermal 'cycle-averaged' steady state with the rate of accretion.

Spotless Sun

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-03-20

NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory sees the sun has been virtually spotless, as in no sunspots, a 11-day spotless stretch not seen since the last solar minimum many years ago. Movies are available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21582

Analysis of selected microflares observed by SphinX over the last minimum of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siarkowski, Marek; Sylwester, Janusz; Sylwester, Barbara; Gryciuk, Magdalena

The Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was designed to observe soft X-ray solar emission in the energy range between 1 keV and 15 keV with the resolution better than 0.5 keV. The instrument operated from February until November 2009 aboard CORONAS-Photon satellite, during the phase of exceptionally low minimum of solar activity. Here we use SphinX data for analysis of selected microflare-class events. We selected events of unusual lightcurves or location. Our study involves determination of temporal characteristics (times of start, maximum and end of flares) and analysis of physical conditions in flaring plasma (temperature, emission measure). Dedicated method has been used in order to remove emission not related to flare. Supplementary information about morphology and evolution of investigated events has been derived from the analysis of XRT/Hinode and SECCHI /STEREO images.

Simulation of the outdoor energy efficiency of an autonomous solar kit based on meteorological data for a site in Central Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzaki, Mohammed Moustafa; Chadel, Meriem; Benyoucef, Boumediene; Petit, Pierre; Aillerie, Michel

2016-07-01

This contribution analyzes the energy provided by a solar kit dedicated to autonomous usage and installed in Central Europa (Longitude 6.10°; Latitude 49.21° and Altitude 160 m) by using the simulation software PVSYST. We focused the analysis on the effect of temperature and solar irradiation on the I-V characteristic of a commercial PV panel. We also consider in this study the influence of charging and discharging the battery on the generator efficiency. Meteorological data are integrated into the simulation software. As expected, the solar kit provides an energy varying all along the year with a minimum in December. In the proposed approach, we consider this minimum as the lowest acceptable energy level to satisfy the use. Thus for the other months, a lost in the available renewable energy exists if no storage system is associated.

The relationship between solar activity and coronal hole evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, J. T.; Davis, J. M.; Gerassimenko, M.; Krieger, A. S.; Solodyna, C. V.; Golub, L.

1978-01-01

The relationship between coronal hole evolution and solar active regions during the Skylab period is examined. A tendency is found for holes to grow or remain stable when the activity nearby, seen as calcium plages and bright regions in X-rays, is predominantly large, long-lived regions. It is also found that there is a significantly higher number of small, short-lived active regions, as indicated by X-ray bright points, in the vicinity of decaying holes than there is near other holes. This is interpreted to mean that holes disappear at least in part because they become filled with many small scale, magnetically closed, X-ray emitting features. This interpretation, together with the observation that the number of X-ray bright points was much larger near solar minimum than it was during the Skylab period, provides a possible explanation for the disappearance of the large, near-equatorial coronal holes at the time of solar minimum.

Evolution of Multiscale Multifractal Turbulence in the Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macek, W. M.; Wawrzaszek, A.

2009-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the question of scaling properties of intermittent turbulence in the space environment. We analyze time series of velocities of the slow and fast speed streams of the solar wind measured in situ by Helios 2, Advanced Composition Explorer and Voyager 2 spacecraft in the inner and outer heliosphere during solar minimum and maximum at various distances from the Sun. To quantify asymmetric scaling of solar wind turbulence, we consider a generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set with two different scales describing nonuniform distribution of the kinetic energy flux between cascading eddies of various sizes. We investigate the resulting spectrum of generalized dimensions and the corresponding multifractal singularity spectrum depending on one probability measure parameter and two rescaling parameters, demonstrating that the multifractal scaling is often rather asymmetric. In particular, we show that the degree of multifractality for the solar wind during solar minimum is greater for fast streams velocity fluctuations than that for the slow streams; the fast wind during solar minimum may exhibit strong asymmetric scaling. Moreover, we observe the evolution of multifractal scaling of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. It is worth noting that for the model with two different scaling parameters a much better agreement with the solar wind data is obtained, especially for the negative index of the generalized dimensions. Therefore we argue that there is a need to use a two-scale cascade model. Hence we propose this new more general model as a useful tool for analysis of intermittent turbulence in various environments. References [1] W. M. Macek and A. Szczepaniak, Generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set model for solar wind turbulence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02108, doi:10.1029/2007GL032263 (2008). [2] A. Szczepaniak and W. M. Macek, Asymmetric multifractal model for solar wind intermittent turbulence, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 15, 615-620 (2008), http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/15/615/2008/. [3] W. M. Macek and A. Wawrzaszek, Evolution of asymmetric multifractal scaling of solar wind turbulence in the outer heliosphere, J. Geophys. Res., A013795, doi:10.1029/2008JA013795, in press.

ROLE OF THE CORONAL ALFVÉN SPEED IN MODULATING THE SOLAR-WIND HELIUM ABUNDANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Y.-M., E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mil

The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ∼0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ∼0.01 at solar minimum to ∼0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995–2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v {sub A} in the outer corona, while being onlymore » weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v {sub A} near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v {sub A} and the relative speed of α -particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.« less

Preliminary Results of the Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit

1995-01-01

The preliminary results of the photometry of CaII K spectroheliograms taken at the NationalSolar Observatory at Sacramento peak are presented in this paper. We have digitizedspectroheliograms for 1980 (maximum of SC21), 1985 (minimum of SC21), 1987 (beginning of theascending phase of SC22), 1988 and 1989 (ascending phase and maximum of SC22), and 1992(declining phase of SC22). We have analyzed images for 1992 and separated the plages, the magneticnetwork, internetwork elements and the chromospheric background using histogram method. Wehave derived the intensity and area of these features as well as the full disk intensity (Spatial KIndex). The Spatial K Index has been compared to the spectral Ca K index derived from the lineprofiles and total solar and UV irradiance measured by the UARS and NOAA9 satellites. Thecontribution of plages, the magnetic network and internetwork element to the changes observed intotal solar and UV irradiances are also estimated.

Recurring coronal holes and their rotation rates during the solar cycles 22-24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, K.; Ravindra, B.; Hegde, Manjunath; Doddamani, Vijayakumar H.

2018-05-01

Coronal holes (CHs) play a significant role in making the Earth geo-magnetically active during the declining and minimum phases of the solar cycle. In this study, we analysed the evolutionary characteristics of the Recurring CHs from the year 1992 to 2016. The extended minimum of Solar Cycle 23 shows unusual characteristics in the number of persistent coronal holes in the mid- and low-latitude regions of the Sun. Carrington rotation maps of He 10830 Å and EUV 195 Å observations are used to identify the Coronal holes. The latitude distribution of the RCHs shows that most of them are appeared between ± 20° latitudes. In this period, more number of recurring coronal holes appeared in and around 100° and 200° Carrington longitudes. The large sized coronal holes lived for shorter period and they appeared close to the equator. From the area distribution over the latitude considered, it shows that more number of recurring coronal holes with area <10^{21} cm2 appeared in the southern latitude close to the equator. The rotation rates calculated from the RCHs appeared between ± 60° latitude shows rigid body characteristics. The derived rotational profiles of the coronal holes show that they have anchored to a depth well below the tachocline of the interior, and compares well with the helioseismology results.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

VARIATIONS IN SOLAR WIND FRACTIONATION AS SEEN BY ACE/SWICS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GENESIS MISSION RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilleri, P.; Wiens, R. C.; Reisenfeld, D. B.

We use Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) elemental composition data to compare the variations in solar wind (SW) fractionation as measured by SWICS during the last solar maximum (1999–2001), the solar minimum (2006–2009), and the period in which the Genesis spacecraft was collecting SW (late 2001—early 2004). We differentiate our analysis in terms of SW regimes (i.e., originating from interstream or coronal hole flows, or coronal mass ejecta). Abundances are normalized to the low-first ionization potential (low-FIP) ion magnesium to uncover correlations that are not apparent when normalizing to high-FIP ions. We find that relative tomore » magnesium, the other low-FIP elements are measurably fractionated, but the degree of fractionation does not vary significantly over the solar cycle. For the high-FIP ions, variation in fractionation over the solar cycle is significant: greatest for Ne/Mg and C/Mg, less so for O/Mg, and the least for He/Mg. When abundance ratios are examined as a function of SW speed, we find a strong correlation, with the remarkable observation that the degree of fractionation follows a mass-dependent trend. We discuss the implications for correcting the Genesis sample return results to photospheric abundances.« less

Cosmic Radiation Exposure of Future Hypersonic Flight Missions.

PubMed

Koops, L

2017-06-15

Cosmic radiation exposure in air traffic grows with flight altitude, geographical latitude and flight time. For future high-speed intercontinental point-to-point travel, the trade-off between reduced flight time and enhanced dose rate at higher flight altitudes is investigated. Various representative (partly) hypersonic cruise missions are considered and in dependence on solar activity the integral route dose is calculated for envisaged flight profiles and trajectories. Our results are compared to those for corresponding air connections served by present day subsonic airliners. During solar maximum, we find a significant reduction in route dose for all considered high-speed missions compared to the subsonic reference. However, during solar minimum, comparable or somewhat larger doses result on transpolar trajectories with (partly) hypersonic cruise at Mach 5. Both solar activity and routing are hence found to determine, whether passengers can profit from shorter flight times in terms of radiation exposure, despite of altitude-induced higher dose rates. Yet, aircrews with fixed number of block hours are always subject to larger annual doses, which in the considered cases take values up to five times the reference. We comment on the implications of our results for route planning and aviation decision-making in the absence of radiation shielding solutions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Self consistent MHD modeling of the solar wind from coronal holes with distinct geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, G. A.; Bravo, S.

1995-01-01

Utilizing an iterative scheme, a self-consistent axisymmetric MHD model for the solar wind has been developed. We use this model to evaluate the properties of the solar wind issuing from the open polar coronal hole regions of the Sun, during solar minimum. We explore the variation of solar wind parameters across the extent of the hole and we investigate how these variations are affected by the geometry of the hole and the strength of the field at the coronal base.

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

Influence of the Sun on the Space Weather Conditions: Cycle 24 Observations from 1 AU to Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christina

2016-10-01

Motivated by future crewed missions to Mars, there is a growing need to advance our knowledge of the heliospheric conditions between the Earth ( 1 AU) orbit and Mars ( 1.5 AU) orbit locations. Comparative conditions at these locations are of special interest since they are separated by the interplanetary region where most solar wind stream interaction regions develop. These regions alter the propagation of solar-heliospheric disturbances, including the interplanetary CME-driven shocks that create the space radiation (via solar energetic particles) that are hazardous to humans. Although the deep Cycle 23 minimum and the modestly active Cycle 24 maximum have produced generally weaker solar events and heliospheric conditions, observations from solar and planetary missions during the SDO era provide a unique opportunity to study how and to what extent the solar eruptive events impact the local space environments at Earth (and/or STEREO-A) and Mars, and for a given solar-heliospheric event period how the geospace and near-Mars space conditions compare and contrast with one another. Such observations include those from SDO, L1 observers (ACE,WIND,SOHO) and STEREO-A at 1 AU, and Mars Express, MSL, and MAVEN at 1.5 AU. Using these observations, we will highlight a number of Cycle 24 space weather events observed along the 1-AU orbit (at Earth and/or STEREO-A) and Mars that are triggered by CMEs, SEPs, flares, and/or CIRs. Numerical 3D simulations from WSA-Enlil-cone will also be presented to provide global context to the events discussed.

A new Method for Determining the Interplanetary Current-Sheet Local Orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco, J. J.; Rodríguez-pacheco, J.; Sequeiros, J.

2003-03-01

In this work we have developed a new method for determining the interplanetary current sheet local parameters. The method, called `HYTARO' (from Hyperbolic Tangent Rotation), is based on a modified Harris magnetic field. This method has been applied to a pool of 57 events, all of them recorded during solar minimum conditions. The model performance has been tested by comparing both, its outputs and noise response, with these of the `classic MVM' (from Minimum Variance Method). The results suggest that, despite the fact that in many cases they behave in a similar way, there are specific crossing conditions that produce an erroneous MVM response. Moreover, our method shows a lower noise level sensitivity than that of MVM.

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965. [Skylab program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcintosh, P. S.

1975-01-01

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

On the variation of the Nimbus 7 total solar irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1992-01-01

For the interval December 1978 to April 1991, the value of the mean total solar irradiance, as measured by the Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget Experiment channel 10C, was 1,372.02 Wm(exp -2), having a standard deviation of 0.65 Wm(exp -2), a coefficient of variation (mean divided by the standard deviation) of 0.047 percent, and a normal deviate z (a measure of the randomness of the data) of -8.019 (inferring a highly significant non-random variation in the solar irradiance measurements, presumably related to the action of the solar cycle). Comparison of the 12-month moving average (also called the 13-month running mean) of solar irradiance to those of the usual descriptors of the solar cycle (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7-cm solar radio flux, and total corrected sunspot area) suggests possibly significant temporal differences. For example, solar irradiance is found to have been greatest on or before mid 1979 (leading solar maximum for cycle 21), lowest in early 1987 (lagging solar minimum for cycle 22), and was rising again through late 1990 (thus, lagging solar maximum for cycle 22), having last reported values below those that were seen in 1979 (even though cycles 21 and 22 were of comparable strength). Presuming a genuine correlation between solar irradiance and the solar cycle (in particular, sunspot number) one infers that the correlation is weak (having a coefficient of correlation r less than 0.84) and that major excursions (both as 'excesses' and 'deficits') have occurred (about every 2 to 3 years, perhaps suggesting a pulsating Sun).

Winter climatic condictions in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the Dalton Minimum from documentary sources.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2010-05-01

In this work, a reconstruction of winter rainfall and temperature in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1750-1850 is presented. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the climate variables. Results are compared with the behaviour of regional series for the reference period 1960-1990. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of droughts and warm winters was lesser than during the reference period, while the frequencies of wet and cold winters were similar. Future research work is outlined.

Design and Analysis of Optimal Ascent Trajectories for Stratospheric Airships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Joseph Bernard

Stratospheric airships are lighter-than-air vehicles that have the potential to provide a long-duration airborne presence at altitudes of 18-22 km. Designed to operate on solar power in the calm portion of the lower stratosphere and above all regulated air traffic and cloud cover, these vehicles represent an emerging platform that resides between conventional aircraft and satellites. A particular challenge for airship operation is the planning of ascent trajectories, as the slow moving vehicle must traverse the high wind region of the jet stream. Due to large changes in wind speed and direction across altitude and the susceptibility of airship motion to wind, the trajectory must be carefully planned, preferably optimized, in order to ensure that the desired station be reached within acceptable performance bounds of flight time and energy consumption. This thesis develops optimal ascent trajectories for stratospheric airships, examines the structure and sensitivity of these solutions, and presents a strategy for onboard guidance. Optimal ascent trajectories are developed that utilize wind energy to achieve minimum-time and minimum-energy flights. The airship is represented by a three-dimensional point mass model, and the equations of motion include aerodynamic lift and drag, vectored thrust, added mass effects, and accelerations due to mass flow rate, wind rates, and Earth rotation. A representative wind profile is developed based on historical meteorological data and measurements. Trajectory optimization is performed by first defining an optimal control problem with both terminal and path constraints, then using direct transcription to develop an approximate nonlinear parameter optimization problem of finite dimension. Optimal ascent trajectories are determined using SNOPT for a variety of upwind, downwind, and crosswind launch locations. Results of extensive optimization solutions illustrate definitive patterns in the ascent path for minimum time flights across varying launch locations, and show that significant energy savings can be realized with minimum-energy flights, compared to minimum-time time flights, given small increases in flight time. The performance of the optimal trajectories are then studied with respect to solar energy production during ascent, as well as sensitivity of the solutions to small changes in drag coefficient and wind model parameters. Results of solar power model simulations indicate that solar energy is sufficient to power ascent flights, but that significant energy loss can occur for certain types of trajectories. Sensitivity to the drag and wind model is approximated through numerical simulations, showing that optimal solutions change gradually with respect to changing wind and drag parameters and providing deeper insight into the characteristics of optimal airship flights. Finally, alternative methods are developed to generate near-optimal ascent trajectories in a manner suitable for onboard implementation. The structures and characteristics of previously developed minimum-time and minimum-energy ascent trajectories are used to construct simplified trajectory models, which are efficiently solved in a smaller numerical optimization problem. Comparison of these alternative solutions to the original SNOPT solutions show excellent agreement, suggesting the alternate formulations are an effective means to develop near-optimal solutions in an onboard setting.

Measurements of the radiation quality factor Q at aviation altitudes during solar minimum (2006-2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Matthias M.; Hubiak, Melina

2010-05-01

In radiation protection, the Q-factor has been defined to describe the biological effectiveness of the energy deposition or absorbed dose to humans in the mixed radiation fields at aviation altitudes. This particular radiation field is generated by the interactions of primary cosmic particles with the atoms of the constituents of the Earth’s atmosphere. Thus the intensity, characterized by the ambient dose equivalent rate H∗(10), depends on the flight altitude and the energy spectra of the particles, mainly protons and alpha particles, impinging on the atmosphere. These charged cosmic projectiles are deflected both by the interplanetary and the Earth’s magnetic field such that the corresponding energy spectra are modulated by these fields. The solar minimum is a time period of particular interest since the interplanetary magnetic field is weakest within the 11-year solar cycle and the dose rates at aviation altitudes reach their maximum due to the reduced shielding of galactic cosmic radiation. For this reason, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) performed repeated dosimetric on-board measurements in cooperation with several German airlines during the past solar minimum from March 2006 to August 2008. The Q-factors measured with a TEPC range from 1.98 at the equator to 2.60 in the polar region.

α Centauri A in the far infrared. First measurement of the temperature minimum of a star other than the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liseau, R.; Montesinos, B.; Olofsson, G.; Bryden, G.; Marshall, J. P.; Ardila, D.; Bayo Aran, A.; Danchi, W. C.; del Burgo, C.; Eiroa, C.; Ertel, S.; Fridlund, M. C. W.; Krivov, A. V.; Pilbratt, G. L.; Roberge, A.; Thébault, P.; Wiegert, J.; White, G. J.

2013-01-01

Context. Chromospheres and coronae are common phenomena on solar-type stars. Understanding the energy transfer to these heated atmospheric layers requires direct access to the relevant empirical data. Study of these structures has, by and large, been limited to the Sun thus far. Aims: The region of the temperature reversal can be directly observed only in the far infrared and submillimetre spectral regime. We aim at determining the characteristics of the atmosphere in the region of the temperature minimum of the solar sister star α Cen A. As a bonus this will also provide a detailed mapping of the spectral energy distribution, i.e. knowledge that is crucial when searching for faint, Kuiper belt-like dust emission around other stars. Methods: For the nearby binary system α Cen, stellar parameters are known with high accuracy from measurements. For the basic model parameters Teff, log g and [Fe/H], we interpolate stellar model atmospheres in the grid of Gaia/PHOENIX and compute the corresponding model for the G2 V star α Cen A. Comparison with photometric measurements shows excellent agreement between observed photospheric data in the optical and infrared. For longer wavelengths, the modelled spectral energy distribution is compared to Spitzer-MIPS, Herschel-PACS, Herschel-SPIRE, and APEX-LABOCA photometry. A specifically tailored Uppsala model based on the MARCS code and extending further in wavelength is used to gauge the emission characteristics of α Cen A in the far infared. Results: Similar to the Sun, the far infrared (FIR) emission of α Cen A originates in the minimum temperature region above the stellar photosphere in the visible. However, in comparison with the solar case, the FIR photosphere of α Cen A appears marginally cooler, Tmin ~ T160 μm = 3920 ± 375 K. Beyond the minimum near 160 μm, the brightness temperatures increase, and this radiation very likely originates in warmer regions of the chromosphere of α Cen A. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a temperature minimum has been directly measured on a main-sequence star other than the Sun. Based on observations with Herschel, which is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by the European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Long-term-average, solar cycle, and seasonal response of magnetospheric energetic electrons to the solar wind speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vassiliadis, D.; Klimas, A. J.; Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Weigel, R. S.

2002-11-01

Among the interplanetary activity parameters the solar wind speed is the one best correlated with the energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere. We examine the radial and temporal characteristics of the 2-6 MeV electron response, approximating it in this paper with linear filters. The filter response is parameterized by the time delay (τ), measured from the time of solar wind impact, and the L shell (L). We examine solar cycle and seasonal effects using an 8-year-long database of Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX)/ Proton Electron Telescope (PET) measurements at the radial range L = 1.1-10. The main peak P1 of the long-term-average response is at (τ, L) = (2, 5.3) and has a simultaneous response over a wide range of radial distances, ΔL = 5. The duration of the response after the peak is inversely proportional to the L shell. The central part of the inner magnetosphere (L = 3.7-5.75) has a much more prolonged response (>10 days) than other parts. Prior to the main response, P1, a brief response, P0, of typically lower amplitude appears at (τ, L) = (0, 3), probably as a quasi-adiabatic response to the compression of the magnetosphere by the solar wind pressure. Over the solar cycle the variation in solar wind input results in a systematic change of the position, amplitude, radial extent, and duration of the two peaks: during solar wind minimum the quasi-adiabatic peak disappears, and the radial size of the responding region decreases; both are responses to low-density, high-speed streams. During solar minimum, the duration is at least 3 days (30%) longer than average, probably due to the sustained solar wind input. Systematic variations appear also as a function of season due to several magnetic and fluid effects. During equinoxes the coupling is stronger, and the duration is longer (by at least 2 days) compared to solstices. Between the two equinoxes the fall response has a significantly higher amplitude and longer duration than the spring equinox response. This is at least partly due to the higher GSE By component during the observation time, which acts to increase the effective GSM Bz component according to the Russell-McPherron effect. The seasonal modulation of the response is consistent with the variation in the fluxes themselves [, 1999]. The modulation is discussed in terms of the equinoctial and axial hypotheses [, 1970; , 1973; , 2000].

MODULATION OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS OBSERVED AT L1 IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fludra, A., E-mail: Andrzej.Fludra@stfc.ac.uk

2015-01-20

We analyze a unique 15 yr record of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) measurements made by the SOHO Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer NIS detectors, recording integrated GCR numbers with energies above 1.0 GeV between 1996 July and 2011 June. We are able to closely reproduce the main features of the SOHO/CDS GCR record using the modulation potential calculated from neutron monitor data by Usoskin et al. The GCR numbers show a clear solar cycle modulation: they decrease by 50% from the 1997 minimum to the 2000 maximum of the solar cycle, then return to the 1997 level in 2007 and continue to rise, in 2009 Decembermore » reaching a level 25% higher than in 1997. This 25% increase is in contrast with the behavior of Ulysses/KET GCR protons extrapolated to 1 AU in the ecliptic plane, showing the same level in 2008-2009 as in 1997. The GCR numbers are inversely correlated with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. In particular, the continued increase of SOHO/CDS GCRs from 2007 until 2009 is correlated with the decrease of the minimum tilt angle from 30° in mid-2008 to 5° in late 2009. The GCR level then drops sharply from 2010 January, again consistent with a rapid increase of the tilt angle to over 35°. This shows that the extended 2008 solar minimum was different from the 1997 minimum in terms of the structure of the heliospheric current sheet.« less

Solar photospheric network properties and their cycle variation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thibault, K.; Charbonneau, P.; Béland, M., E-mail: kim@astro.umontreal.ca-a, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca-b, E-mail: michel.beland@calculquebec.ca-c

We present a numerical simulation of the formation and evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic network over a full solar cycle. The model exhibits realistic behavior as it produces large, unipolar concentrations of flux in the polar caps, a power-law flux distribution with index –1.69, a flux replacement timescale of 19.3 hr, and supergranule diameters of 20 Mm. The polar behavior is especially telling of model accuracy, as it results from lower-latitude activity, and accumulates the residues of any potential modeling inaccuracy and oversimplification. In this case, the main oversimplification is the absence of a polar sink for the flux,more » causing an amount of polar cap unsigned flux larger than expected by almost one order of magnitude. Nonetheless, our simulated polar caps carry the proper signed flux and dipole moment, and also show a spatial distribution of flux in good qualitative agreement with recent high-latitude magnetographic observations by Hinode. After the last cycle emergence, the simulation is extended until the network has recovered its quiet Sun initial condition. This permits an estimate of the network relaxation time toward the baseline state characterizing extended periods of suppressed activity, such as the Maunder Grand Minimum. Our simulation results indicate a network relaxation time of 2.9 yr, setting 2011 October as the soonest the time after which the last solar activity minimum could have qualified as a Maunder-type Minimum. This suggests that photospheric magnetism did not reach its baseline state during the recent extended minimum between cycles 23 and 24.« less

Characteristics of spacecraft charging in low Earth orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Phillip C.

2012-07-01

It has been found that the DMSP spacecraft at 840 km can charge to very large negative voltages (up to -2000 V) when encountering intense precipitating electron events (auroral arcs). We present an 11-year study of over 1600 charging events, defined as when the spacecraft charged to levels exceeding 100 V negative during an auroral crossing. The occurrence frequency of events was highly correlated with the 11-year solar cycle with the largest number of events occurring during solar minimum. This was due to the requirement that the background thermal plasma density be low, at most 104 cm-3. During solar maximum, the plasma density is typically well above that level due to the solar EUV ionizing radiation, and although the occurrence frequency of auroral arcs is considerably greater than at solar minimum, the occurrence of high-level charging is minimal. As a result of this study, we produced a model spectrum for precipitating electrons that can be used as a specification for the low-altitude auroral charging environment. There are implications from this study on a number of LEO satellite programs, including the International Space Station, which does enter the auroral zone, particularly during geomagnetic activity when the auroral boundary can penetrate to very low latitudes. The plasma density in the ISS orbit is usually well above the minimum required density for charging. However, in the wake of the ISS, the plasma density can be 2 orders of magnitude or more lower than the background density and thus conditions are ripe for charging.

Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.

We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In

Implications of the Deep Minimum for Slow Solar Wind Origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antiochos, S. K.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A.

2009-12-01

The origin of the slow solar wind has long been one of the most important problems in solar/heliospheric physics. Two observational constraints make this problem especially challenging. First, the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, unlike the fast wind that originates on open field lines. Second, the slow wind has substantial angular extent, of order 30 degrees, which is much larger than the widths observed for streamer stalks or the widths expected theoretically for a dynamic heliospheric current sheet. We propose that the slow wind originates from an intricate network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that emanate from the polar coronal hole regions. Using topological arguments, we show that these corridors must be ubiquitous in the solar corona. The total solar eclipse in August 2008, near the lowest point of the Deep Minimum, affords an ideal opportunity to test this theory by using the ultra-high resolution Predictive Science's (PSI) eclipse model for the corona and wind. Analysis of the PSI eclipse model demonstrates that the extent and scales of the open-field corridors can account for both the angular width of the slow wind and its closed-field composition. We discuss the implications of our slow wind theory for the structure of the corona and heliosphere at the Deep Minimum and describe further observational and theoretical tests. This work has been supported by the NASA HTP, SR&T, and LWS programs.

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars' Moon Phobos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zu Qun; de Carufel, Guy; Crues, Edwin Z.; Bielski, Paul

2016-01-01

This study used high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting conditions over one Martian year are presented, which include the duration of solar eclipses, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, available energy per unit area for sun tracking arrays, and available energy per unit area for fixed arrays (constrained by incident angle). The results show that: Phobos' solar eclipse time varies throughout the Martian year, with longer eclipse durations during the Martian spring and fall seasons and no eclipses during the Martian summer and winter seasons; solar radiation intensity is close to minimum at the summer solstice and close to maximum at the winter solstice; exposure time per orbit is relatively constant over the surface during the spring and fall but varies with latitude during the summer and winter; and Sun tracking solar arrays generate more energy than a fixed solar array. A usage example of the result is also present in this paper to demonstrate the utility.

AP-8 trapped proton environment for solar maximum and solar minimum. [Computer accessible models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sawyer, D. M.; Vette, J. I.

1976-01-01

Data sets from Ov-3 and Azur indicate a need for improvement in models of the stably trapped proton flux with energies between 0.1 and 400 MeV. Two computer accessible models are described: AP8MAX and AP8MIN. The models are presented in the form of nomographs, B-L plots, R-lambda plots, and equatorial radial profiles. Nomographs of the orbit-integrated fluxes are also discussed. The models are compared with each other, with the data, and with previous AP models. Requirements for future improvements include more complete data coverage and periodic comparisons with new data sets as they become available. The machine-sensible format in which the models are available are described.

Timonium Elementary School Solar Energy Heating and Cooling Augmentation Experiment. Final Engineering Report. Executive Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

AAI Corp., Baltimore, MD.

This report covers a two-year and seven-month solar space heating and cooling experiment conducted at the Timonium Elementary School, Timonium, Maryland. The system was designed to provide a minimum of 50 percent of the energy required during the heating season and to determine the feasibility of using solar energy to power absorption-type…

Solar total irradiance in cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Schmutz, W.

2011-05-01

Context. The most recent minimum of solar activity was deeper and longer than the previous two minima as indicated by different proxies of solar activity. This is also true for the total solar irradiance (TSI) according to the PMOD composite. Aims: The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field does not reproduce the observed TSI in cycle 23. Methods: We use sensitive, 60-min averaged MDI magnetograms and quasi-simultaneous continuum images as an input to our SATIRE-S model and calculate the TSI variation over cycle 23, sampled roughly every two weeks. The computed TSI is then compared with the PMOD composite of TSI measurements and with the data from two individual instruments, SORCE/TIM and UARS/ACRIM II, that monitored the TSI during the declining phase of cycle 23 and over the previous minimum in 1996, respectively. Results: Excellent agreement is found between the trends shown by the model and almost all sets of measurements. The only exception is the early, i.e. 1996 to 1998, PMOD data. Whereas the agreement between the model and the PMOD composite over the period 1999-2009 is almost perfect, the modelled TSI shows a steeper increase between 1996 and 1999 than implied by the PMOD composite. On the other hand, the steeper trend in the model agrees remarkably well with the ACRIM II data. A closer look at the VIRGO data, which are the basis of the PMOD composite after 1996, reveals that only one of the two VIRGO instruments, the PMO6V, shows the shallower trend present in the composite, whereas the DIARAD measurements indicate a steeper trend. Conclusions: Based on these results, we conclude that (1) the sensitivity changes of the PMO6V radiometers within VIRGO during the first two years have very likely not been correctly evaluated; and that (2) the TSI variations over cycle 23 and the change in the TSI levels between the minima in 1996 and 2008 are consistent with the solar surface magnetism mechanism.

Adverse Space Weather at the Solar Cycle Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; McCollough, J. P.; Singer, H. J.; Chappell, S. P.; Allen, J. H.

2008-05-01

It is commonly understood that many types of adverse space weather (solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms) occur most commonly around the maximum of the 11-year sunspot activity cycle. Other types of well-known space weather such as relativistic electron events in the Earth's outer magnetosphere (that produce deep dielectric charging in spacecraft systems) are usually associated with the period just after sunspot maximum. At the present time, we are in the very lowest activity phase of the sunspot cycle (solar minimum). As such we would not expect much in the way of adverse space weather events. However, in early to mid-February of 2008 quite prominent solar coronal holes produced two high-speed streams that in turn stimulated very large, long-duration relativistic electron enhancements in Earth's magnetosphere. These seem to have been associated with several spacecraft operational anomalies at various spacecraft orbital locations. We describe these recent space weather events and assess their operational significance in this presentation. These results show that substantial space weather events can and do occur even during the quietest parts of the solar cycle.

High latitude field aligned light ion flows in the topside ionosphere deduced from ion composition and plasma temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grebowsky, J. M.; Hoegy, W. R.; Chen, T. C.

1993-01-01

Using a comprehensive ionospheric data set comprised of all available ion composition and plasma temperature measurements from satellites, the vertical distributions of ion composition and plasma temperatures are defined from middle latitudes up into the polar cap for summer conditions for altitudes below about 1200 km. These data are sufficient to allow a numerical estimation of the latitudinal variation of the light ion outflows from within the plasmasphere to the polar wind regions. The altitude at which significant light ion outflow begins is found to be lower during solar minimum conditions than during solar maximum. The H(+) outward speeds are of the order of 1 km/s near 1100 km during solar maximum but attain several km/s speeds for solar minimum. He(+) shows a similar altitude development of flow but attains polar cap speeds much less than 1 km/s at altitudes below 1100 km, particularly under solar maximum conditions. Outward flows are also found in the topside F-region for noontime magnetic flux tubes within the plasmasphere.

Cosmic ray modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal Mishra, Rekha; Mishra, Rajesh Kumar

2016-07-01

Propagation of cosmic rays to and inside the heliosphere, encounter an outward moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic field fluctuation and turbulence, causing convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. Cosmic ray counts from the ground ground-based neutron monitors at different cut of rigidity show intensity changes, which are anti-correlated with sunspot numbers. They also lose energy as they propagate towards the Earth and experience various types of modulations due to different solar activity indices. In this work, we study the first three harmonics of cosmic ray intensity on geo-magnetically quiet days over the period 1965-2014 for Beijing, Moscow and Tokyo neutron monitoring stations located at different cut off rigidity. The amplitude of first harmonic remains high for low cutoff rigidity as compared to high cutoff rigidity on quiet days. The diurnal amplitude significantly decreases during solar activity minimum years. The diurnal time of maximum significantly shifts to an earlier time as compared to the corotational direction having different cutoff rigidities. The time of maximum for first harmonic significantly shifts towards later hours and for second harmonic it shifts towards earlier hours at low cutoff rigidity station as compared to the high cut off rigidity station on quiet days. The amplitude of second/third harmonics shows a good positive correlation with solar wind velocity, while the others (i.e. amplitude and phase) have no significant correlation on quiet days. The amplitude and direction of the anisotropy on quiet days does not show any significant dependence on high-speed solar wind streams for these neutron monitoring stations of different cutoff rigidity threshold. Keywords: cosmic ray, cut off rigidity, quiet days, harmonics, amplitude, phase.

High charge state carbon and oxygen ions in Earth's equatorial quasi-trapping region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christon, S. P.; Hamilton, D. C.; Gloeckler, G.; Eastmann, T. E.

1994-01-01

Observations of energetic (1.5 - 300 keV/e) medium-to-high charge state (+3 less than or equal to Q less than or equal to +7) solar wind origin C and O ions made in the quasi-trapping region (QTR) of Earth's magnetosphere are compared to ion trajectories calculated in model equatorial magnetospheric magnetic and electric fields. These comparisons indicate that solar wind ions entering the QTR on the nightside as an energetic component of the plasma sheet exit the region on the dayside, experiencing little or no charge exchange on the way. Measurements made by the CHarge Energy Mass (CHEM) ion spectrometer on board the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorer/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE) spacecraft at 7 less than L less than 9 from September 1984 to January 1989 are the source of the new results contained herein: quantitative long-term determination of number densities, average energies, energy spectra, local time distributions, and their variation with geomagnetic disturbance level as indexed by Kp. Solar wind primaries (ions with charge states unchanged) and their secondaries (ions with generally lower charge states produced from primaries in the magnetosphere via charge exchange)are observed throughout the QTR and have distinctly different local time variations that persist over the entire 4-year analysis interval. During Kp larger than or equal to 3 deg intervals, primary ion (e.g., O(+6)) densities exhibit a pronounced predawn maximum with average energy minimum and a broad near-local-noon density minimum with average energy maximum. Secondary ion (e.g., O(+5)) densities do not have an identifiable predawn peak, rather they have a broad dayside maximum peaked in local morning and a nightside minimum. During Kp less than or equal to 2(-) intervals, primary ion density peaks are less intense, broader in local time extent, and centered near midnight, while secondary ion density local time variations diminish. The long-time-interval baseline helps to refine and extend previous observations; for example, we show that ionospheric contribution to O(+3)) is negligible. Through comparison with model ion trajectories, we interpret the lack of pronounced secondary ion density peaks colocated with the primary density peaks to indicate that: (1) negligible charge exchange occurs at L greater than 7, that is, solar wind secondaries are produced at L less than 7, and (2) solar wind secondaries do not form a significant portion of the plasma sheet population injected into the QTR. We conclude that little of the energetic solar wind secondary ion population is recirculated through the magnetosphere.

A model for solar constant secular changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.

Automated array assembly task, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carbajal, B. G.

1977-01-01

State-of-the-art technologies applicable to silicon solar cell and solar cell module fabrication were assessed. The assessment consisted of a technical feasibility evaluation and a cost projection for high volume production of solar cell modules. Design equations based on minimum power loss were used as a tool in the evaluation of metallization technologies. A solar cell process sensitivity study using models, computer calculations, and experimental data was used to identify process step variation and cell output variation correlations.

Distinct EUV minimum of the solar irradiance (16-40 nm) observed by SolACES spectrometers onboard the International Space Station (ISS) in August/September 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikutowski, B.; Brunner, R.; Erhardt, Ch.; Knecht, St.; Schmidtke, G.

2011-09-01

In the field of terrestrial climatology the continuous monitoring of the solar irradiance with highest possible accuracy is an important goal. SolACES as a part of the ESA mission SOLAR on the ISS is measuring the short-wavelength solar EUV irradiance from 16-150 nm. This data will be made available to the scientific community to investigate the impact of the solar irradiance variability on the Earth's climate as well as the thermospheric/ionospheric interactions that are pursued in the TIGER program. Since the successful launch with the shuttle mission STS-122 on February 7th, 2008, SolACES initially recorded the low EUV irradiance during the extended solar activity minimum. Thereafter it has been observing the EUV irradiance during the increasing solar activity with enhanced intensity and changing spectral composition. SolACES consists of three grazing incidence planar grating spectrometers. In addition there are two three-signal ionisation chambers, each with exchangeable band-pass filters to determine the absolute EUV fluxes repeatedly during the mission. One important problem of space-borne instrumentation recording the solar EUV irradiance is the degradation of the spectrometer sensitivity. The two double ionisation chambers of SolACES, which could be re-filled with three different gases for each recording, allow the recalibration of the efficiencies of the three SolACES spectrometers from time to time.

Time Dependence of the Electron and Positron Components of the Cosmic Radiation Measured by the PAMELA Experiment between July 2006 and December 2015.

PubMed

Adriani, O; Barbarino, G C; Bazilevskaya, G A; Bellotti, R; Boezio, M; Bogomolov, E A; Bongi, M; Bonvicini, V; Bottai, S; Bruno, A; Cafagna, F; Campana, D; Carlson, P; Casolino, M; Castellini, G; De Santis, C; Di Felice, V; Galper, A M; Karelin, A V; Koldashov, S V; Koldobskiy, S A; Krutkov, S Y; Kvashnin, A N; Leonov, A; Malakhov, V; Marcelli, L; Martucci, M; Mayorov, A G; Menn, W; Mergé, M; Mikhailov, V V; Mocchiutti, E; Monaco, A; Mori, N; Munini, R; Osteria, G; Panico, B; Papini, P; Pearce, M; Picozza, P; Ricci, M; Ricciarini, S B; Simon, M; Sparvoli, R; Spillantini, P; Stozhkov, Y I; Vacchi, A; Vannuccini, E; Vasilyev, G I; Voronov, S A; Yurkin, Y T; Zampa, G; Zampa, N; Potgieter, M S; Vos, E E

2016-06-17

Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons are a unique probe of the propagation of cosmic rays as well as of the nature and distribution of particle sources in our Galaxy. Recent measurements of these particles are challenging our basic understanding of the mechanisms of production, acceleration, and propagation of cosmic rays. Particularly striking are the differences between the low energy results collected by the space-borne PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments and older measurements pointing to sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation of cosmic-ray spectra. The PAMELA experiment has been measuring the time variation of the positron and electron intensity at Earth from July 2006 to December 2015 covering the period for the minimum of solar cycle 23 (2006-2009) until the middle of the maximum of solar cycle 24, through the polarity reversal of the heliospheric magnetic field which took place between 2013 and 2014. The positron to electron ratio measured in this time period clearly shows a sign-charge dependence of the solar modulation introduced by particle drifts. These results provide the first clear and continuous observation of how drift effects on solar modulation have unfolded with time from solar minimum to solar maximum and their dependence on the particle rigidity and the cyclic polarity of the solar magnetic field.

LASCO White-Light Observations of Eruptive Current Sheets Trailing CMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Vourlidas, Angelos

2016-12-01

Many models of eruptive flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) involve formation of a current sheet connecting the ejecting CME flux rope with a magnetic loop arcade. However, there is very limited observational information on the properties and evolution of these structures, hindering progress in understanding eruptive activity from the Sun. In white-light images, narrow coaxial rays trailing the outward-moving CME have been interpreted as current sheets. Here, we undertake the most comprehensive statistical study of CME-rays to date. We use SOHO/LASCO data, which have a higher cadence, larger field of view, and better sensitivity than any previous coronagraph. We compare our results to a previous study of Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) CMEs, in 1984 - 1989, having candidate magnetic disconnection features at the CME base, about half of which were followed by coaxial bright rays. We examine all LASCO CMEs during two periods of minimum and maximum activity in Solar Cycle 23, resulting in many more events, ˜130 CME-rays, than during SMM. Important results include: The occurrence rate of the rays is ˜11 % of all CMEs during solar minimum, but decreases to ˜7 % at solar maximum; this is most likely related to the more complex coronal background. The rays appear on average 3 - 4 hours after the CME core, and are typically visible for three-fourths of a day. The mean observed current sheet length over the ray lifetime is ˜12 R_{⊙}, with the longest current sheet of 18.5 R_{⊙}. The mean CS growth rates are 188 km s^{-1} at minimum and 324 km s^{-1} at maximum. Outward-moving blobs within several rays, which are indicative of reconnection outflows, have average velocities of ˜350 km s^{-1} with small positive accelerations. A pre-existing streamer is blown out in most of the CME-ray events, but half of these are observed to reform within ˜1 day. The long lifetime and long lengths of the CME-rays challenge our current understanding of the evolution of the magnetic field in the aftermath of CMEs.

Observed solar near UV variability: A contribution to variations of the solar constant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

London, Julius; Pap, Judit; Rottman, Gary J.

1989-01-01

Continuous Measurements of the Solar UV have been made by an instrument on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) since October 1981. The results for the wavelength interval 200 to 300 nm show an irradiance decrease to a minimum in early 1987 and a subsequent increase to mid-April 1989. The observed UV changes during part of solar cycles 21 to 22 represent approx. 35 percent (during the decreasing phase) and 25 percent (during the increasing phase) of the observed variations of the solar constant for the same time period as the SME measurements.

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Solar-cycle Variations of Meridional Flows in the Solar Convection Zone Using Helioseismic Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chia-Hsien; Chou, Dean-Yi

2018-06-01

The solar meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow in solar meridional planes, extending through the convection zone. Here we study its solar-cycle variations in the convection zone using SOHO/MDI helioseismic data from 1996 to 2010, including two solar minima and one maximum. The travel-time difference between northward and southward acoustic waves is related to the meridional flow along the wave path. Applying the ray approximation and the SOLA inversion method to the travel-time difference measured in a previous study, we obtain the meridional flow distributions in 0.67 ≤ r ≤ 0.96R ⊙ at the minimum and maximum. At the minimum, the flow has a three-layer structure: poleward in the upper convection zone, equatorward in the middle convection zone, and poleward again in the lower convection zone. The flow speed is close to zero within the error bar near the base of the convection zone. The flow distribution changes significantly from the minimum to the maximum. The change above 0.9R ⊙ shows two phenomena: first, the poleward flow speed is reduced at the maximum; second, an additional convergent flow centered at the active latitudes is generated at the maximum. These two phenomena are consistent with the surface meridional flow reported in previous studies. The change in flow extends all the way down to the base of the convection zone, and the pattern of the change below 0.9R ⊙ is more complicated. However, it is clear that the active latitudes play a role in the flow change: the changes in flow speed below and above the active latitudes have opposite signs. This suggests that magnetic fields could be responsible for the flow change.

Solar Cycle Variability and Grand Minima Induced by Joy's Law Scatter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark S.

2017-08-01

The strength of the solar cycle varies from one cycle to another in an irregular manner and the extreme example of this irregularity is the Maunder minimum when Sun produced only a few spots for several years. We explore the cause of these variabilities using a 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with flux, tilt angle, and time of emergence all obtain from their observed distributions. The dynamo growth is limited by a tilt quenching.The randomnesses in the BMR emergences make the poloidal field unequal and eventually cause an unequal solar cycle. When observed fluctuations of BMR tilts around Joy's law, i.e., a standard deviation of 15 degrees, are considered, our model produces a variation in the solar cycle comparable to the observed solar cycle variability. Tilt scatter also causes occasional Maunder-like grand minima, although the observed scatter does not reproduce correct statistics of grand minima. However, when we double the tilt scatter, we find grand minima consistent with observations. Importantly, our dynamo model can operate even during grand minima with only a few BMRs, without requiring any additional alpha effect.

Evolution of 3D electron density of the solar corona from the minimum to maximum of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tongjiang; Reginald, Nelson L.; Davila, Joseph M.; St Cyr, O. C.

2016-10-01

The variability of the solar white-light corona and its connection to the solar activity has been studied for more than a half century. It is widely accepted that the temporal variation of the total radiance of the K-corona follows the solar cycle pattern (e.g., correlated with sunspot number). However, the origin of this variation and its relationships with regard to coronal mass ejections and the solar wind are yet to be clearly understood. COR1-A and -B instruments onboard the STEREO spacecraft have continued to perform high-cadence (5 min) polarized brightness (pB) measurements from two different vantage points from the solar minimum to the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24. With these pB observations we have reconstructed the 3D coronal density between 1.5-4.0 solar radii for 100 Carrington rotations (CRs) from 2007 to 2014 using the spherically symmetric inversion (SSI) method. We validate these 3D density reconstructions by other means such as tomography, MHD modeling, and pB inversion of LASCO/C2 data. We analyze the solar cycle variations of total coronal mass (or average density) over the global Sun and in two hemispheres, as well as the variations of the streamer area and mean density. We find the short-term oscillations of 8-9 CRs during the ascending and maximum phases through wavelet analysis. We explore the origin of these oscillations based on evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and coronal structures.

Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

The Distribution of Solar Wind Speeds During Solar Minimum: Calibration for Numerical Solar Wind Modeling Constraints on the Source of the Slow Solar Wind (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-05

subsonic corona below the critical point, resulting in an increased scale height and mass flux, while keeping the kinetic energy of the flow fairly...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. tubes with small expansion factors the heating occurs in the supersonic corona, where the energy ...goes into the kinetic energy of the solar wind, increasing the flow speed [Leer and Holzer, 1980; Pneuman, 1980]. Using this model and a sim- plified

Mapping magnetic field lines between the Sun and Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, B.; Cairns, Iver H.; Gosling, J. T.; Steward, G.; Francis, M.; Neudegg, D.; Schulte in den Bäumen, H.; Player, P. R.; Milne, A. R.

2016-02-01

Magnetic field topologies between the Sun and Earth are important for the connectivity to Earth of solar suprathermal particles, e.g., solar energetic particles and beam electrons in type III solar radio bursts. An approach is developed for mapping large-scale magnetic field lines near the solar equatorial plane, using near-Earth observations and a solar wind model with nonzero azimuthal magnetic field at the source surface. Unlike Parker's spiral model, which restricts the in-ecliptic angle ΦB in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic coordinates to (90°-180°, 270°-360°) and so is unable to predict field configurations for the other ΦB values frequently observed in the solar wind, our approach can account for all the observed ΦB values. A set of predicted maps shows that near both minimal and maximal solar activity the field lines are typically open and that loops with both ends either connected to or disconnected from the Sun are relatively rare. The open field lines, nonetheless, often do not closely follow the Parker spiral, being less or more tightly wound, or strongly azimuthally or radially oriented, or inverted. The time-varying classes, e.g., bidirectional electrons, of suprathermal electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) at 1 AU are predicted from the mapped field line configurations and compared with Wind observations for two solar rotations, one each near solar minimum and solar maximum. PAD predictions by our approach agree quantitatively (≈90%) with the PAD observations and outperform (by ≈20%) PAD predictions using Parker's model.

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, E. D.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V. L.; Marsh, D. R.

2015-06-01

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP-induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Fluxes of MeV particles at Earth's orbit and their relationship with the global structure of the solar corona: Observations from SOHO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posner, A.; Bothmer, V.; Kunow, H.; Heber, B.; Mueller-Mellin, R.; Delaboudiniere, J.-P.; Thompson, B. J.; Brueckner, G. E.; Howard, R. A.; Michels, D. J.

1997-01-01

The SOHO satellite, launched on 2 December 1995, combines a unique set of instruments which allow comparative studies of the interior of the sun, the outer corona and solar to be carried out. In its halo orbit around the L1 Lagrangian point of the sun-earth system, SOHO's comprehensive suprathermal and energetic particle analyzer (COSTEP) measures in situ energetic particles in the energy range of 44 keV/particle to greater than 53 MeV/n. The MeV proton, electron and helium nuclei measurements from the COSTEP electron proton helium instrument (EPHIN) were used to investigate the relationships of intensity increases of these particle species with the large-scale structures of the solar corona and heliosphere, including temporal variations. Coronal observatons are provided by the large angle spectroscopic coronagraph (LASCO) and the extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT). It was found that during times of minimum solar activity, intensity increases of the particles have two well defined sources: corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere related to coronal holes at the sun and coronal mass ejections.

Control device for automatic orientation of a solar panel based on a microcontroller (PIC16f628a)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezoug, M. R.; Krama, A.

2016-07-01

This work proposes a control device for autonomous solar tracker based on one axis, It consists of two main parts; the control part which is based on "the PIC16f628a"; it has the role of controlling, measuring and plotting responses. The second part is a mechanical device, which has the role of making the solar panel follows the day-night change of the sun throughout the year. Both parties are established to improve energy generation of the photovoltaic panels. In this paper, we will explain the main operating principles of our system. Also, we will provide experimental results which demonstrate the good performance and the efficiency of this system. This innovation is different from what has been proposed in previous studies. The important points of this system are maximum output energy and minimum energy consumption of solar tracker, its cost is relatively low with simplicity in implementation. The average power increase produced by using the tracking system for a particular day, is over 30 % compared with the static panel.

Minimum exposure limits and measured relationships between the vitamin D, erythema and international commission on non-ionizing radiation protection solar ultraviolet.

PubMed

Downs, Nathan; Parisi, Alfio; Butler, Harry; Turner, Joanna; Wainwright, Lisa

2015-01-01

The International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) has established guidelines for exposure to ultraviolet radiation in outdoor occupational settings. Spectrally weighted ICNIRP ultraviolet exposures received by the skin or eye in an 8 h period are limited to 30 J m(-2). In this study, the time required to reach the ICNIRP exposure limit was measured daily in 10 min intervals upon a horizontal plane at a subtropical Australian latitude over a full year and compared with the effective Vitamin D dose received to one-quarter of the available skin surface area for all six Fitzpatrick skin types. The comparison of measured solar ultraviolet exposures for the full range of sky conditions in the 2009 measurement period, including a major September continental dust event, show a clear relationship between the weighted ICNIRP and the effective vitamin D dose. Our results show that the horizontal plane ICNIRP ultraviolet exposure may be used under these conditions to provide minimum guidelines for the healthy moderation of vitamin D, scalable to each of the six Fitzpatrick skin types. © 2014 The American Society of Photobiology.

Variation of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period studied with multisatellite measurements of electron density and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Kwak, Youngsil; Kim, Yong Ha; Park, Jaeheung; Lee, Junchan; Min, Kyoungwook

2016-07-01

Using the ionospheric measurements of CHAMP, DEMETER, and DMSP F15, the seasonal and spatial variations of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period were investigated and compared with ionospheric models. In all the satellite measurements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) shows clearly longitudinal asymmetry with wave number -3 or -4 patterns. Anomalous increases of Ne in the nighttime surpassing daytime Ne, known as the Weddell Sea anomaly (WSA) or midlatitude summer nighttime anomaly (MSNA), were also observed in the global Ne distribution with differences in detailed geometry of the geomagnetic field according to the altitude. In the nighttime ionosphere, the reduced Te in the equatorial region at the DMSP altitude, identified as the equatorial plasma temperature anomaly (EPTA), was ascribed to the leftover of the prereversal enhancement of the upward plasma drift. Though the EIA, WSA, MSNA, and EPTA are all associated with the upward plasma movement, the difference in the thermal evolution is ascribable to the geometry of drift in which the plasma moves across the geomagnetic field line for the EIA and the EPTA, while along the field line for the WSA and the MSNA.

Building with integral solar-heat storage--Starkville, Mississippi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Column supporting roof also houses rock-storage bin of solar-energy system supplying more than half building space heating load. Conventional heaters supply hot water. Since bin is deeper and narrower than normal, individual pebble size was increased to keep airflow resistance at minimum.

Quiet-Time Suprathermal (˜0.1 - 200 keV) Electrons in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linghua; Yang, Liu; Tao, Jiawei; Zong, Qiugang; Li, Gang; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Bale, Stuart

2017-04-01

We present a statistical survey of the energy spectrum of solar wind suprathermal (˜0.1-200 keV) electrons measured by the WIND 3DP instrument at 1 AU during quiet times at the minimum and maximum of solar cycles 23 and 24. The observed energy spectrum of both (beaming) strahl and (isotropic) halo electrons at ˜0.1-1.5 keV generally fits to a Kappa distribution function with an index κ and effective temperature Teff, while the observed energy spectrum of nearly isotropic superhalo electrons at ˜20-200 keV generally fits to a power-law function, J ˜ E-β. We find a strong positive correlation between κ and Teff for both strahl and halo electrons, and a strong positive correlation between the strahl density and halo density. In both solar cycles, κ is larger at solar minimum than at solar maximum for both strahl and halo electrons. For the superhalo population, the spectral index β ranges from ˜1.6 to ˜3.7 and the integrated density nsup ranges from 10-8 cm-3 to 10-5 cm-3, with no clear association with the sunspot number. In solar cycle 23 (24), the distribution of β has a broad maximum between 2.4 and 2.8 (2.0 and 2.4). All the strahl, halo and superhalo populations show no obvious correlation with the solar wind core population. These results reflect the nature of the generation of solar wind suprathermal electrons.

SCD 02 thermal design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardoso, Humberto Pontes

1990-01-01

The Satelite de Coleta de Dados (SCD) 02 (Data Collection Satellite) has the following characteristics: 115 kg weight, octagonal prism shape, 1 m diameter, and 0.67 m height. Its specified orbit is nearly circular, 700 km altitude, is inclined 25 deg with respect to the equator line, and has 100 min period. The electric power is supplied by eight solar panels installed on the lateral sides of the satellite. The equipment is located on the central (both faces) and lower (internal face) panels. The satellite is spin stabilized and its attitude control is such that during its lifetime, the solar aspect angle will vary between 80 and 100 deg with respect to its spin axis. Two critical cases were selected for thermal control design purposes: Hot case (maximum solar constant, solar aspect angle equal to 100 deg, minimum eclipse time and maximum internal heat dissipation); and a passive thermal design concept was achieved and the maximum and minimum equipment operating temperatures were obtained through a 109 node finite difference mathematical model.

Minimum and start of the eleven-year solar cycle, Earth's ionosphere and radioamateurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janda, F. K.

2010-12-01

During the last long and deep minimum of solar activity, particularly in the years 2008 and 2009, we could read a whole bunch of unfulfilled predictions, and inaccurate and confusing messages whose authors were apparently surprised , or at least showed up a surprised face. Usually, their common feature was focusing on only a small number of solar activity parameters, often neglecting results of historical observations. Recall "It has all been here already, and yet it will all happen again" (Wieslaw Brudzinski). At the same time, we have, so to say, "at our hands" a medium which simultaneously responds in a flexible and accurate way to most manifestations of the solar activity and which can be traced with just a radio receiver - and, of course, somewhat trained ear, for example of an amateur radio operator. Ionospheric probes are, however, much better for our purposes, and things that can be done with their current generation only very recently belonged to the world of dreams.

Development of a predictive model to estimate the effect of soil solarization on survival of soilborne inoculum of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora pini

Treesearch

Fumiaki Funahashi; Jennifer L. Parke

2017-01-01

Soil solarization has been shown to be an effective tool to manage Phytophthora spp. within surface soils, but estimating the minimum time required to complete local eradication under variable weather conditions remains unknown. A mathematical model could help predict the effectiveness of solarization at different sites and soil depths....

Changes of atmospheric properties over Belgrade, observed using remote sensing and in situ methods during the partial solar eclipse of 20 March 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilić, L.; Kuzmanoski, M.; Kolarž, P.; Nina, A.; Srećković, V.; Mijić, Z.; Bajčetić, J.; Andrić, M.

2018-06-01

Measurements of atmospheric parameters were carried out during the partial solar eclipse (51% coverage of solar disc) observed in Belgrade on 20 March 2015. The measured parameters included height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), meteorological parameters, solar radiation, surface ozone and air ions, as well as Very Low Frequency (VLF, 3-30 kHz) and Low Frequency (LF, 30-300 kHz) signals to detect low-ionospheric plasma perturbations. The observed decrease of global solar and UV-B radiation was 48%, similar to the solar disc coverage. Meteorological parameters showed similar behavior at two measurement sites, with different elevations and different measurement heights. Air temperature change due to solar eclipse was more pronounced at the lower measurement height, showing a decrease of 2.6 °C, with 15-min time delay relative to the eclipse maximum. However, at the other site temperature did not decrease; its morning increase ceased with the start of the eclipse, and continued after the eclipse maximum. Relative humidity at both sites remained almost constant until the eclipse maximum and then decreased as the temperature increased. The wind speed decreased and reached minimum 35 min after the last contact. The eclipse-induced decrease of PBL height was about 200 m, with minimum reached 20 min after the eclipse maximum. Although dependent on UV radiation, surface ozone concentration did not show the expected decrease, possibly due to less significant influence of photochemical reactions at the measurement site and decline of PBL height. Air-ion concentration decreased during the solar eclipse, with minimum almost coinciding with the eclipse maximum. Additionally, the referential Line-of-Sight (LOS) radio link was set in the area of Belgrade, using the carrier frequency of 3 GHz. Perturbation of the receiving signal level (RSL) was observed on March 20, probably induced by the solar eclipse. Eclipse-related perturbations in ionospheric D-region were detected based on the VLF/LF signal variations, as a consequence of Lyα radiation decrease.

Cosmic Ray Modulation and Radiation Dose of Aircrews During Possible Grand Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, S.; Kataoka, R.; Sato, T.; Imada, S.; Miyahara, H.; Shiota, D.; Matsumoto, T.; Ueno, H.

2017-12-01

The Sun is exhibiting low solar activity levels since the descending phase of the last solar cycle, and it is likely to be continued as well as in the case of the past grand solar minima. The cosmic-ray modulation, which is the variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) spectrum caused by the heliospheric environmental change, is basically anti-correlated with the solar activity. In the recent weak solar cycle, we thus expect that the flux of GCRs is getting higher than that in the previous solar cycles, leading to the increase in the radiation exposure in the space and atmosphere. In order to quantitatively evaluate the possible solar modulation of GCRs and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude, we have developed the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic-ray modulation. Our model can give the flux of GCRs anywhere in the heliosphere by assuming the variation of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), and its tilt angle. We solve the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs in the HMF, and therefore reproduce the 22-year variation of the cosmic-ray modulation. We also calculate the neutron monitor counting rate and the radiation dose of aircrews at flight altitude, by the air-shower simulation performed by PHITS (Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System). In our previous study [1], we calculated the radiation dose at a flight altitude during the coming solar cycle by assuming the variation of the solar wind speed and the strength of the HMF expressed by sinusoidal curve, and obtained that an annual radiation dose of aircrews in 5 years around the next solar minimum will be up to 19% higher than that at the last cycle. In this study, we predict the new model of the heliospheric environmental change on the basis of a prediction model for the sunspot number. The quantitative predictions of the cosmic-ray modulation and the radiation dose at a flight altitude during possible Grand Minimum considering the new model for the heliospheric environmental change will be presented at the meeting. [1] S. Miyake, R. Kataoka, and T. Sato, Space Weather, 15, 589-605, 2017.

Space weather effects on the low latitude D-region ionosphere during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Abhikesh; Kumar, Sushil

2014-12-01

The effects of the solar flares and the geomagnetic storms (disturbance storm time ( Dst) < -50 nT) during December 2006 to 2008, a period during the unprecedented solar minimum of solar cycles 23 and 24, have been examined on sub-ionospheric very low frequency (VLF) signals from NWC (19.8 kHz), NPM (21.4 kHz), VTX (18.2 kHz), and NLK (24.8 kHz) transmitters monitored at Suva (18.2° S, 178.4° E), Fiji. Apart from the higher class solar flares (C to X), a solar flare of class B8.5 also produced enhancements both on the amplitude and phase. The amplitude enhancements in NLK, NPM, and NWC signals as a function of peak solar flare X-ray flux in decibel (dB; relative to 1 μW/m2) shows that the relationship curve is steeper and quite linear between the flare power levels of 0 to 15 dB; below 0 dB, the curve gets less steep and flattens towards -5 dB flare power level, while it also gets less steep above 15 dB and almost flattens above 20 dB. In general, the level of amplitude enhancement for NLK signal is higher than that for NPM and NWC signals for all solar flares. The enhancement in the amplitude and phase of VLF signals by solar flares is due to the increase in the D-region electron density by the solar flare-produced extra ionization. The modeling of VLF perturbations produced by B8.5 and C1.5 classes of solar flares on 29 January 2007 using LWPC (Long Wave Propagation Capability) V2.1 codes show that reflection height ( H') was reduced by 0.6 and 1.2 km and the exponential sharpness factor ( β) was raised by 0.010 and 0.005 km-1, respectively. Out of seven storms with Dst < -50 nT, only the intense storm of 14 to 16 December 2006 with a minimum Dst of -145 nT has shown a clear reduction in the signal strength of NWC and NPM sub-ionospheric signals due to storm-induced reduction in the D-region electron density.

Spotless

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Everything runs in cycles and what goes up must come down. We hear that a lot these days. The topic of conversation is of course the sun. The solar cycle takes 11 years to go from sunspot minimum to maximum and back to minimum. The cycle is driven by changes in the Sun's magnetic field, and is actually a 22-year cycle: during the second 11 years the magnetic polarity of the solar field is reversed. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (or SOHO for short), a joint ESA and NASA mission, has been watching the sun since 1995. Rarely is the sun as quiet as it was on September 27, 2008 - as shown in the visible-light image above left, there were absolutely no sunspots to be seen. If the activity stays this low, this might be the most inactive the Sun has been since the dawn of the space age. This still pales in comparison to the 17th century when for a period of 70 years (called the Maunder Minimum) there were no reported sunspots. Some scientists believe the Maunder Minimum responsible for a 'Little Ice Age' and the sound of some violins. The image on the right, taken 3 days later in extreme UV light, shows the formation of two active regions (in the circles) but both faded away before becoming full-fledged spots. So how low will it go? Only time will tell.

Solar electric propulsion for Mars transport vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickman, J. M.; Curtis, H. B.; Alexander, S. W.; Gilland, J. H.; Hack, K. J.; Lawrence, C.; Swartz, C. K.

1990-01-01

Solar electric propulsion (SEP) is an alternative to chemical and nuclear powered propulsion systems for both piloted and unpiloted Mars transport vehicles. Photovoltaic solar cell and array technologies were evaluated as components of SEP power systems. Of the systems considered, the SEP power system composed of multijunction solar cells in an ENTECH domed fresnel concentrator array had the least array mass and area. Trip times to Mars optimized for minimum propellant mass were calculated. Additionally, a preliminary vehicle concept was designed.

Solar Power System Design for the Solar Probe+ Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Schmitz, Paul C.; Kinnison, James; Fraeman, Martin; Roufberg, Lew; Vernon, Steve; Wirzburger, Melissa

2008-01-01

Solar Probe+ is an ambitious mission proposed to the solar corona, designed to make a perihelion approach of 9 solar radii from the surface of the sun. The high temperature, high solar flux environment makes this mission a significant challenge for power system design. This paper summarizes the power system conceptual design for the solar probe mission. Power supplies considered included nuclear, solar thermoelectric generation, solar dynamic generation using Stirling engines, and solar photovoltaic generation. The solar probe mission ranges from a starting distance from the sun of 1 AU, to a minimum distance of about 9.5 solar radii, or 0.044 AU, from the center of the sun. During the mission, the solar intensity ranges from one to about 510 times AM0. This requires power systems that can operate over nearly three orders of magnitude of incident intensity.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability of Some Chromospheric Emission Lines Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göker, Ü. D.; Gigolashvili, M. Sh.; Kapanadze, N.

2017-06-01

A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLAB software package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs), contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouzaki, Mohammed Moustafa, E-mail: bouzaki-physique1@yahoo.fr; Chadel, Meriem; Université de Lorraine, LMOPS, EA 4423, 57070 Metz

This contribution analyzes the energy provided by a solar kit dedicated to autonomous usage and installed in Central Europe (Longitude 6.10°; Latitude 49.21° and Altitude 160 m) by using the simulation software PVSYST. We focused the analysis on the effect of temperature and solar irradiation on the I-V characteristic of a commercial PV panel. We also consider in this study the influence of charging and discharging the battery on the generator efficiency. Meteorological data are integrated into the simulation software. As expected, the solar kit provides an energy varying all along the year with a minimum in December. In themore » proposed approach, we consider this minimum as the lowest acceptable energy level to satisfy the use. Thus for the other months, a lost in the available renewable energy exists if no storage system is associated.« less

Enhancing economic competiveness of dish Stirling technology through production volume and localization: Case study for Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larchet, Kevin; Guédez, Rafael; Topel, Monika; Gustavsson, Lars; Machirant, Andrew; Hedlund, Maria-Lina; Laumert, Björn

2017-06-01

The present study quantifies the reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) and capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a dish Stirling power plant (DSPP) through an increase in localization and unit production volume. Furthermore, the localization value of the plant is examined to determine how much investment is brought into the local economy. Ouarzazate, Morocco, was chosen as the location of the study due to the country's favorable regulatory framework with regards to solar power technologies and its established industry in the concentrating solar power (CSP) field. A detailed techno-economic model of a DSPP was developed using KTH's in-house modelling tool DYESOPT, which allows power plant evaluation by means of technical and economic performance indicators. Results on the basis of LCoE and CAPEX were compared between two different cases of production volume, examining both a minimum and maximum level of localization. Thereafter, the DSPP LCoE and localization value were compared against competing solar technologies to evaluate its competitiveness. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted around key design parameters. The study confirms that the LCoE of a DSPP can be reduced to values similar to solar photovoltaic (PV) and lower than other CSP technologies. Furthermore, the investment in the local economy is far greater when compared to PV and of the same magnitude to other CSP technologies. The competiveness of a DSPP has the potential to increase further when coupled with thermal energy storage (TES), which is currently under development.

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. A.; Davies, J. A.; Barnes, D.; Byrne, J. P.; Perry, C. H.; Bothmer, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Gallagher, P. T.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Möstl, C.; Rodriguez, L.; Rouillard, A. P.; Odstrčil, D.

2018-05-01

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board NASA's twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras, while following papers will present analyses of CME propagation through the entire HI fields of view. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites do not simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes, while at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

PubMed

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

PubMed Central

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-01-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway. PMID:26213513

Cesium power: low Cs+ levels impart stability to perovskite solar cells.

PubMed

Deepa, Melepurath; Salado, Manuel; Calio, Laura; Kazim, Samrana; Shivaprasad, S M; Ahmad, Shahzada

2017-02-01

Towards increasing the stability of perovskite solar cells, the addition of Cs + is found to be a rational approach. Recently triple cation based perovskite solar cells were found to be more effective in terms of stability and efficiency. Heretofore they were unexplored, so we probed the Cs/MA/FA (cesium/methyl ammonium/formamidinium) cation based perovskites by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and correlated their compositional features with their solar cell performances. The Cs + content was found to be optimum at 5%, when incorporated in the (MA 0.15 FA 0.85 )Pb(I 0.85 Br 0.15 ) 3 lattice, because the corresponding device yielded the highest fill factor compared to the perovskite without Cs + and with 10% Cs + . XPS studies distinctly reveal how Cs + aids in maintaining the expected stoichiometric ratios of I : Pb 2+ , I : N and Br : Pb 2+ in the perovskites, and how the valence band (VB) edge is dependent on the Cs + proportion, which in turn governs the open circuit voltage. Even at a low content of 5%, Cs + resides deep within the absorber layer, and ensures minimum distortion of the VB level (compared to 0% and 10% Cs + perovskites) upon Ar + sputtering, thus allowing the formation of a stable robust material that delivers excellent solar cell response. This study which brings out the role of Cs + is anticipated to be of paramount significance to further engineer the composition and improve device performances.

Solar cycle dependence of the heliospheric shape deduced from a global MHD simulation of the interaction process between a nonuniform time-dependent solar wind and the local interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Washimi, H.

1999-06-01

The global structure of the solar wind/very local interstellar medium interaction is studied from a fully three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model, in which the solar wind speed increases from 400 to 800 km/s in going from the ecliptic to pole and the heliolatitude of the low-high-speed boundary changes from 30° to 80° in going from the solar minimum to solar maximum. In addition, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity at the solar maximum. As a whole, the shapes of the terminal shock (TS) and heliopause (HP) are elongated along the solar polar axis owing to a high solar wind ram pressure over the poles. In the ecliptic plane, the heliospheric structure changes little throughout a solar cycle. The TS in this plane shows a characteristic bullet-shaped structure. In the polar plane, on the other hand, the shape of the TS exhibits many specific structures according to the stage of the solar cycle. These structures include the polygonal configuration of the polar TS seen around the solar minimum, the mesa- and terrace-shaped TSs in the high- and low-speed solar wind regions seen around the ascending phase, and the chimney-shaped TS in the high-speed solar wind region seen around the solar maximum. These structures are formed from different combinations of right-angle shock, oblique shock, and steep oblique shock so as to transport the heliosheath plasma most efficiently toward the heliotail (HT). In the HT, the hot and weakly-magnetized plasma from the high-heliolatitude TS invades as far as the ecliptic plane. A weakly time-dependent recirculation flow in the HT is a manifestation of invading flow. Distributions of magnetic field in the HT, which are a pile-up of the compressed MF over several solar cycles, are modified by the flow from high-heliolatitude.

Update on the Worsening Particle Radiation Environment Observed by CRaTER and Implications for Future Human Deep-Space Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwadron, N. A.; Rahmanifard, F.; Wilson, J.; Jordan, A. P.; Spence, H. E.; Joyce, C. J.; Blake, J. B.; Case, A. W.; de Wet, W.; Farrell, W. M.; Kasper, J. C.; Looper, M. D.; Lugaz, N.; Mays, L.; Mazur, J. E.; Niehof, J.; Petro, N.; Smith, C. W.; Townsend, L. W.; Winslow, R.; Zeitlin, C.

2018-03-01

Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084), the cycle 23-24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the "mini" solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded theERobserved small solar energetic particle events. Here we provide an update to the Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. The Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) study examined the evolution of the interplanetary magnetic field and utilized a previously published study by Goelzer et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019404) projecting out the interplanetary magnetic field strength based on the evolution of sunspots as a proxy for the rate that the Sun releases coronal mass ejections. This led to a projection of dose rates from galactic cosmic rays on the lunar surface, which suggested a ˜20% increase of dose rates from one solar minimum to the next and indicated that the radiation environment in space may be a worsening factor important for consideration in future planning of human space exploration. We compare the predictions of Schwadron, Blake, et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001084) with the actual dose rates observed by CRaTER in the last 4 years. The observed dose rates exceed the predictions by ˜10%, showing that the radiation environment is worsening more rapidly than previously estimated. Much of this increase is attributable to relatively low-energy ions, which can be effectively shielded. Despite the continued paucity of solar activity, one of the hardest solar events in almost a decade occurred in September 2017 after more than a year of all-clear periods. These particle radiation conditions present important issues that must be carefully studied and accounted for in the planning and design of future missions (to the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and beyond).

Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

Understanding Sun-Climate Connection by Analysis of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Weather Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, K. D.; Yau, K. K.

2005-12-01

Fifty years of galactic cosmic ray data show changes with the solar cycle. Deflection of the highly energetic particles from exploding supernovae by the solar wind and associated magnetic field also modulates cosmogenic radioisotope production high in the atmosphere. The same trends are seen in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 abundances from long-lived trees and polar ice cores, respectively. Total solar irradiances measured by satellite radiometers show a 0.1% variance over the last two solar cycles, with only a small effect on global temperatures. A longer view is obviously needed. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) sunspots were rarely seen. Total solar irradiances, reconstructed from historical sunspot data, were 0.24% lower, correlating nicely with an estimated 0.5-degree drop in Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures during the Little Ice Age [Lean and Rind, J. Clim. 11, 3069, 1998]. A longer time series has been reconstructed from even earlier records. From the frequencies of sunspot and auroral sightings in East Asian and European chronicles, C-14 and Be-10 abundances we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of brightness change. Although these long-term changes were <1% they have clearly affected the climate [Pang and Yau, Eos 83, No. 43, 481, 2002]. We have also analyzed Chinese historical weather records for comparison. Reports of unseasonable cold are classified by their degree of severity: (1) Late (April-June) or early (July-Sept.) killing frosts; (2) Bitter cold/heavy snowfall; and (3) Heavy sustained snowfall, bitter cold with frozen wells, lakes, rivers and icebound seas. The latter cases were often widespread and multi-year. All categories occurred most often during Maunder Minimum. The Category 3 episodes were in 1652-54, 1656, 1664, 1670-72, 1676-77, 1683, 1688-91, 1716 and 1718-19. The coldest time 1670-1697 coincides with lows in aurora sightings and numerical model simulated temperatures, and highs in radioisotope production. There was only one Category 3 episode between the Maunder and Dalton Minima-in 1761 (due to a big eruption); and two in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)-in 1796 and 1814-17. The 1815 Tambora eruption, with the reduced solar luminosity, seem to have been responsible for the "year without summer" and long-cold spell. The Sun has brightened since the Dalton Minimum, but the climate of China stayed cold through the 19th century. However there were only two Category 3 episodes: in 1841 and 1877. The onset of global warming reduced that to just once in the 20th century: 1955. The climate of China seems to have been warm during the Late 14th-Century Maximum (1350-1410). We have found only one Category 1 episode: in 1393. It then turned cold during the Sporer Minimum (1410-1590). Category 3 episodes occurred in 1453-54, 1493, 1513, 1569, and 1577-78. The early 1453 great Kuwae eruption apparently deepened and prolonged the first [Pang, Eos 74, No. 43, 106, 1993; Simarski, Aramco World 47, No.6, 8, 1996]. We conclude that the climate of China in the past 650 years generally follows world trend. The major forcing seems to have been changing solar luminosity, as all but four severe weather episodes coincide with solar minimum. The exact mechanism remains unknown, but could have been increased cloudiness.

PV modules for ground testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The main objective was to design and build a minimum of three photovoltaic test panels for plasma interaction experiments. These experiments are intended to provide data on the interactions between high-voltage solar arrays and the space plasma environment. Data gathered will significantly contribute to the development of design criteria for the space station solar arrays. Electrical isolation between the solar cell strings and the module mounting plate is required for high-voltage bias.

Solar Cycle and Geomagnetic Activity Variation of Topside Ionospheric Upflow as Measured by DMSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coley, W. R.; Hairston, M. R.

2016-12-01

Under the proper conditions a considerable amount of plasma can escape the Earth's ionosphere into the magnetosphere. Indeed, there are indications that at least part of the time the ionosphere may be the dominant source of ions for the plasma sheet and near-Earth portion of the magnetosphere. The upward flux of thermal O+ from the lower part of the topside ionosphere actively provides plasma into intermediate altitudes where they may be given escape energy by various mechanisms. Previous work has indicated that there is considerable time variation of upwelling low energy ionospheric plasma to these intermediate altitudes during moderate to high solar activity. Here we use the SSIES thermal plasma instruments on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F13-F19 series of spacecraft to examine the vertical flux of thermal O+ from the deep solar minimum of 2008-2009 to the moderately active period of 2012-2015. Separately integrating the upward and downward fluxes over the high-latitude region (auroral zone and polar cap) allows the observation of the total upflow/downflow as a function of the current geomagnetic conditions, solar cycle, and solar wind conditions. In particular we investigate the incidence of high upward flux events as a function of solar wind velocity and density during the deepest solar minimum since the space age began.

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prikryl, P.; Jayachandran, P.T.; Mushini, S. C.; Richardson, I. G.

2012-01-01

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

An analysis of interplanetary space radiation exposure for various solar cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badhwar, G. D.; Cucinotta, F. A.; O'Neill, P. M.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The radiation dose received by crew members in interplanetary space is influenced by the stage of the solar cycle. Using the recently developed models of the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) environment and the energy-dependent radiation transport code, we have calculated the dose at 0 and 5 cm water depth; using a computerized anatomical man (CAM) model, we have calculated the skin, eye and blood-forming organ (BFO) doses as a function of aluminum shielding for various solar minima and maxima between 1954 and 1989. These results show that the equivalent dose is within about 15% of the mean for the various solar minima (maxima). The maximum variation between solar minimum and maximum equivalent dose is about a factor of three. We have extended these calculations for the 1976-1977 solar minimum to five practical shielding geometries: Apollo Command Module, the least and most heavily shielded locations in the U.S. space shuttle mid-deck, center of the proposed Space Station Freedom cluster and sleeping compartment of the Skylab. These calculations, using the quality factor of ICRP 60, show that the average CAM BFO equivalent dose is 0.46 Sv/year. Based on an approach that takes fragmentation into account, we estimate a calculation uncertainty of 15% if the uncertainty in the quality factor is neglected.

Survey of conditions for artificial aurora experiments at EISCAT Tromsø using dynasonde data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuda, T. T.; Rietveld, M. T.; Kosch, M. J.; Oyama, S.; Hosokawa, K.; Nozawa, S.; Kawabata, T.; Mizuno, A.; Ogawa, Y.

2018-03-01

We report a brief survey on conditions for artificial aurora optical experiments in F region heating with O-mode at the EISCAT Tromsø site using dynasonde data from 2000 to 2017. The results obtained in our survey indicate the following: The possible conditions for conducting artificial aurora experiments are concentrated in twilight hours in both evening and morning, compared with late-night hours; the possible conditions appear in fall, winter, and spring, while there is no chance in summer, and the month-to-month variation among fall, winter, and spring is not clear. The year-to-year variation is well correlated with the solar cycle, and experiments during the solar minimum would be almost hopeless. These findings are useful for planning future artificial aurora optical experiments.

Ionospheric disturbances under low solar activity conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, D.; Lastovicka, J.; Hejda, P.; Bochnicek, J.

2014-07-01

The paper is focused on ionospheric response to occasional magnetic disturbances above selected ionospheric stations located at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere under extremely low solar activity conditions of 2007-2009. We analyzed changes in the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 against 27-days running mean obtained for different longitudinal sectors of both hemispheres for the initial, main and recovery phases of selected magnetic disturbances. Our analysis showed that the effects on the middle latitude ionosphere of weak-to-moderate CIR-related magnetic storms, which mostly occur around solar minimum period, could be comparable with the effects of strong magnetic storms. In general, both positive and negative deviations of foF2 and hmF2 have been observed independent on season and location. However positive effects on foF2 prevailed and were more significant. Observations of stormy ionosphere also showed large departures from the climatology within storm recovery phase, which are comparable with those usually observed during the storm main phase. The IRI STORM model gave no reliable corrections of foF2 for analyzed events.

Amplitudes of solar modulation of low energy cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Paizis, C.

1982-01-01

There have been differences of opinion regarding the origin and behavior of the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. It has been shown that the return to solar maximum intensity levels beginning in early 1978 was dominated by Forbush decreases. These Forbush decreases were caused by radially moving interplanetary shocks resulting from large solar flares. The present investigation is concerned with solar modulation effects which were observed during the previous solar minimum. The effects were associated with high-speed streams in the solar wind. These streams caused the formation of corotating interaction regions with both forward and reverse shocks. The modulation effects seen near earth are intimately connected with these shocks.

Long-term solar activity explored with wavelet methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.; Liszka, L.; Lundin, R.; Muscheler, R.

2006-03-01

Long-term solar activity has been studied with a set of wavelet methods. The following indicators of long-term solar activity were used; the group sunspot number, the sunspot number, and the 14C production rate. Scalograms showed the very long-term scales of 2300 years (Hallstat cycle), 900-1000 years, 400-500 years, and 200 years (de Vries cycle). Scalograms of a newly-constructed 14C production rate showed interesting solar modulation during the Maunder minimum. Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) revealed the modulation in detail, as well as peaks of solar activity not seen in the sunspot number. In both the group sunspot number scalogram and the 14C production rate scalogram, a process appeared, starting or ending in late 1700. This process has not been discussed before. Its solar origin is unclear.

The group sunspot number ampligram and the sunspot number ampligram showed the Maunder and the Dalton minima, and the period of high solar activity, which already started about 1900 and then decreased again after mid 1990. The decrease starts earlier for weaker components. Also, weak semiperiodic activity was found.

Time Scale Spectra (TSS) showed both deterministic and stochastic processes behind the variability of the long-term solar activity. TSS of the 14C production rate, group sunspot number and Mt. Wilson sunspot index and plage index were compared in an attempt to interpret the features and processes behind the long-term variability.

Some Options for a Minimum Solar Probe Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randolph, J. E.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Turner, P. R.; Miyake, R. M.; Ayon, J. A.

1996-01-01

Smaller and lower cost options of NASA's Solar Probe mission have recently been studied. The difference between these options and the results of earlier studies is dramatic. The motivation for low cost has encouraged the JPL design team to accomodate a smaller scientific payload using innovative multi-functional subsystems.

Energetic O+ and H+ Ions in the Plasma Sheet: Implications for the Transport of Ionospheric Ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ohtani, S.; Nose, M.; Christon, S. P.; Lui, A. T.

2011-01-01

The present study statistically examines the characteristics of energetic ions in the plasma sheet using the Geotail/Energetic Particle and Ion Composition data. An emphasis is placed on the O+ ions, and the characteristics of the H+ ions are used as references. The following is a summary of the results. (1) The average O+ energy is lower during solar maximum and higher during solar minimum. A similar tendency is also found for the average H+ energy, but only for geomagnetically active times; (2) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities are several times higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum; (3) The average H+ and O+ energies and the O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities all increase with geomagnetic activity. The differences among different solar phases not only persist but also increase with increasing geomagnetic activity; (4) Whereas the average H+ energy increases toward Earth, the average O+ energy decreases toward Earth. The average energy increases toward dusk for both the H+ and O+ ions; (5) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities increase toward Earth during all solar phases, but most clearly during solar maximum. These results suggest that the solar illumination enhances the ionospheric outflow more effectively with increasing geomagnetic activity and that a significant portion of the O+ ions is transported directly from the ionosphere to the near ]Earth region rather than through the distant tail.

Ionospheric Change and Solar EUV Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, J. J.; David, M.; Jensen, J. B.; Schunk, R. W.

2011-12-01

The ionosphere has been quantitatively monitored for the past six solar cycles. The past few years of observations are showing trends that differ from the prior cycles! Our good statistical relationships between the solar radio flux index at 10.7 cm, the solar EUV Irradiance, and the ionospheric F-layer peak density are showing indications of divergence! Present day discussion of the Sun-Earth entering a Dalton Minimum would suggest change is occurring in the Sun, as the driver, followed by the Earth, as the receptor. The dayside ionosphere is driven by the solar EUV Irradiance. But different components of this spectrum affect the ionospheric layers differently. For a first time the continuous high cadence EUV spectra from the SDO EVE instrument enable ionospheric scientists the opportunity to evaluate solar EUV variability as a driver of ionospheric variability. A definitive understanding of which spectral components are responsible for the E- and F-layers of the ionosphere will enable assessments of how over 50 years of ionospheric observations, the solar EUV Irradiance has changed. If indeed the evidence suggesting the Sun-Earth system is entering a Dalton Minimum periods is correct, then the comprehensive EVE solar EUV Irradiance data base combined with the ongoing ionospheric data bases will provide a most fortuitous fiduciary reference baseline for Sun-Earth dependencies. Using the EVE EUV Irradiances, a physics based ionospheric model (TDIM), and 50 plus years of ionospheric observation from Wallops Island (Virginia) the above Sun-Earth ionospheric relationship will be reported on.

Weakened Magnetization and Onset of Large-scale Turbulence in the Young Solar Wind—Comparisons of Remote Sensing Observations with Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chhiber, Rohit; Usmanov, Arcadi V.; DeForest, Craig E.; Matthaeus, William H.; Parashar, Tulasi N.; Goldstein, Melvyn L.

2018-04-01

Recent analysis of Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) imaging observations have described the early stages of the development of turbulence in the young solar wind in solar minimum conditions. Here we extend this analysis to a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona and solar wind based on inner boundary conditions, either dipole or magnetogram type, that emulate solar minimum. The simulations have been calibrated using Ulysses and 1 au observations, and allow, within a well-understood context, a precise determination of the location of the Alfvén critical surfaces and the first plasma beta equals unity surfaces. The compatibility of the the STEREO observations and the simulations is revealed by direct comparisons. Computation of the radial evolution of second-order magnetic field structure functions in the simulations indicates a shift toward more isotropic conditions at scales of a few Gm, as seen in the STEREO observations in the range 40–60 R ⊙. We affirm that the isotropization occurs in the vicinity of the first beta unity surface. The interpretation based on early stages of in situ solar wind turbulence evolution is further elaborated, emphasizing the relationship of the observed length scales to the much smaller scales that eventually become the familiar turbulence inertial range cascade. We argue that the observed dynamics is the very early manifestation of large-scale in situ nonlinear couplings that drive turbulence and heating in the solar wind.

Parametric sensitivity study for solar-assisted heat-pump systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, N. M.; Morehouse, J. H.

1981-07-01

The engineering and economic parameters affecting life-cycle costs for solar-assisted heat pump systems are investigted. The change in energy usage resulting from each engineering parameter varied was developed from computer simulations, and is compared with results from a stand-alone heat pump system. Three geographical locations are considered: Washington, DC, Fort Worth, TX, and Madison, WI. Results indicate that most engineering changes to the systems studied do not provide significant energy savings. The most promising parameters to ary are the solar collector parameters tau (-) and U/sub L/ the heat pump capacity at design point, and the minimum utilizable evaporator temperature. Costs associated with each change are estimated, and life-cycle costs computed for both engineering parameters and economic variations in interest rate, discount rate, tax credits, fuel unit costs and fuel inflation rates. Results indicate that none of the feasibile engineering changes for the system configuration studied will make these systems economically competitive with the stand-alone heat pump without a considerable tax credit.

Stability and lifetime testing of photomultiplier detectors for the Earth observing system SOLSTICE program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadler, Joshua A.; van de Kop, Toni; Drake, Virginia A.; McClintock, William E.; Murphy, John; Rodgers, Paul

1998-10-01

The primary objective of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) is to accurately measure the absolute value of the solar UV irradiance at the top of the earth's atmosphere for a minimum mission lifetime of 5 years. To meet this objective, SOLSTICE employs a unique design to determine changes in instrument performance by routinely observing a series of early-type stars and comparing the irradiances directly with the solar value. Although the comparison techniques allows us to track instrument performance, the success of the SOLSTICE experiment depends upon photomultiplier detectors which have graceful degradation properties. Therefore, we have established a laboratory program to evaluate the characteristics of photomultiplier tubes which are exposed to long term fluxes similar to those we expected to encounter in flight. Three types of Hamamatsu photomultiplier tubes were tested as candidates for use in the EOS-SOLSTICE project. The results of these studies: pulse height distribution; quantum efficiency; surface maps,; and lifetime analysis are presented in this paper.

Spotless Sun

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-03-22

The sun has been virtually spotless, as in no sunspots, over the past 11 days, a spotless stretch that we have not seen since the last solar minimum many years ago. The videos shows the past four days (Mar. 14-17, 2017) with a combination of an extreme ultraviolet image blended with just the filtered sun. If we just showed the filtered sun with no spots for reference points, any viewer would have a hard time telling that the sun was even rotating. The sun is trending again towards the solar minimum period of its 11 year cycle, which is predicted to be around 2020. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21569

Experimental evaluation of a unique radiometer for use in solar simulation testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, R. G.

1978-01-01

The vane radiometer is designed to operate over the range 0-1 solar constant and is capable of withstanding temperatures over the range -200 to +175 C. Two of these radiometers, for use in the Johnson Space Center's largest space simulator, have been evaluated for: (1) thermal sensitivity with no solar input, (2) linearity as a function of solar simulation input, and (3) output drift as a function of time. The minimum sensitivity was measured to be approximately 25.5 mV/solar constant. An unusual effect in the pressure range 760 to 1.0 torr is discussed.

NASA advanced design program: Analysis, design, and construction of a solar powered aircraft. B.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, Agnes; Conley, Kristin; Javorski, Christian T.; Cheung, Kwok-Hung; Crivelli, Paul M.; Torrey, Nancy P.; Traver, Michael L.

1992-01-01

Increase in energy demands coupled with rapid depletion of natural energy resources have deemed solar energy as the most logical alternative source of power. The major objective of this project was to build a solar powered remotely controlled aircraft to demonstrate the feasibility of solar energy as an effective, alternate source of power. The final design was optimized for minimum weight and maximum strength of the structure. These design constraints necessitated a carbon fiber composite structure. Surya is a lightweight, durable aircraft capable of achieving level flight powered entirely by solar cells.

Solar drying of crops and food. (Latest citations from Food Science Technology Abstracts (FSTA)). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-02-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and utilization of solar food driers. Solar collectors used are described in depth. Drying of fish, peanuts, fruits, potatoes, onions, garlic, ginseng, grains, coffee, and tobacco using this method is discussed. The use of focused solar energy and the addition of silica gel to drying foods are evaluated. Use of solar driers in the field, as a home preservation method, in underdeveloped countries, and as part of industrial food processing is considered. (Contains a minimum of 214 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Solar drying of crops and food. (Latest citations from Food Science & Technology Abstracts (FSTA)). Published Search

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-02-01

The bibliography contains citations concerning the design and utilization of solar food driers. Solar collectors used are described in depth. Drying of fish, peanuts, fruits, potatoes, onions, garlic, ginseng, grains, coffee, and tobacco using this method is discussed. The use of focused solar energy and the addition of silica gel to drying foods are evaluated. Use of solar driers in the field, as a home preservation method, in underdeveloped countries, and as part of industrial food processing is considered. (Contains a minimum of 217 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

Interpretation of 3He variations in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Geiss, J.; Bochsler, P.

1983-01-01

The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of 3He flares occurred during this time.

Interpretation of He-3 abundance variations in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.

1984-01-01

The ion composition instrument (ICI) on ISEE-3 observed the isotopes of helium of mass 3 and 4 in the solar wind almost continuously between August 1978 and July 1982. This period included the increase towards the maximum of solar activity cycle 21, the maximum period, and the beginning of the descent towards solar minimum. Observations were made when the solar wind speed was between 300 and 620 km/s. For part of the period evidence for regular interplanetary magnetic sector structure was clear and a number of He-3 flares occurred during this time.

Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Integrating Solar and Wind Energy: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denholm, P.; Mehos, M.

2015-06-03

As wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) increase in penetration it is increasingly important to examine enabling technologies that can help integrate these resources at large scale. Concentrating solar power (CSP) when deployed with thermal energy storage (TES) can provide multiple services that can help integrate variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and PV. CSP with TES can provide firm, highly flexible capacity, reducing minimum generation constraints which limit penetration and results in curtailment. By acting as an enabling technology, CSP can complement PV and wind, substantially increasing their penetration in locations with adequate solar resource.

Ionospheric control of the dawn-dusk asymmetry of the Mars magnetotail current sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liemohn, Michael W.; Xu, Shaosui; Dong, Chuanfei; Bougher, Stephen W.; Johnson, Blake C.; Ilie, Raluca; De Zeeuw, Darren L.

2017-06-01

This study investigates the role of solar EUV intensity at controlling the location of the Mars magnetotail current sheet and the structure of the lobes. Four simulation results are examined from a multifluid magnetohydrodynamic model. The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions are held constant, and the Mars crustal field sources are omitted from the simulation configuration. This isolates the influence of solar EUV. It is found that solar maximum conditions, regardless of season, result in a Venus-like tail configuration with the current sheet shifted to the -Y (dawnside) direction. Solar minimum conditions result in a flipped tail configuration with the current sheet shifted to the +Y (duskside) direction. The lobes follow this pattern, with the current sheet shifting away from the larger lobe with the higher magnetic field magnitude. The physical process responsible for this solar EUV control of the magnetotail is the magnetization of the dayside ionosphere. During solar maximum, the ionosphere is relatively strong and the draped IMF field lines quickly slip past Mars. At solar minimum, the weaker ionosphere allows the draped IMF to move closer to the planet. These lower altitudes of the closest approach of the field line to Mars greatly hinder the day-to-night flow of magnetic flux. This results in a buildup of magnetic flux in the dawnside lobe as the S-shaped topology on that side of the magnetosheath extends farther downtail. The study demonstrates that the Mars dayside ionosphere exerts significant control over the nightside induced magnetosphere of that planet.