Evaluating the suitability of the Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI) classification scheme using the SWAT model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Conservation practices are effective ways to mitigate non-point source pollution, especially when implemented on critical source areas (CSAs) known to be the areas contributing disproportionately to high pollution loads. Although hydrologic models are promising tools to identify CSAs within agricul...

Source apportion of atmospheric particulate matter: a joint Eulerian/Lagrangian approach.

PubMed

Riccio, A; Chianese, E; Agrillo, G; Esposito, C; Ferrara, L; Tirimberio, G

2014-12-01

PM2.5 samples were collected during an annual monitoring campaign (January 2012-January 2013) in the urban area of Naples, one of the major cities in Southern Italy. Samples were collected by means of a standard gravimetric sampler (Tecora Echo model) and characterized from a chemical point of view by ion chromatography. As a result, 143 samples together with their ionic composition have been collected. We extend traditional source apportionment techniques, usually based on multivariate factor analysis, interpreting the chemical analysis results within a Lagrangian framework. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) model was used, providing linkages to the source regions in the upwind areas. Results were analyzed in order to quantify the relative weight of different source types/areas. Model results suggested that PM concentrations are strongly affected not only by local emissions but also by transboundary emissions, especially from the Eastern and Northern European countries and African Saharan dust episodes.

Four pi calibration and modeling of a bare germanium detector in a cylindrical field source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewberry, R. A.; Young, J. E.

2012-05-01

In this paper we describe a 4π cylindrical field acquisition configuration surrounding a bare (unshielded, uncollimated) high purity germanium detector. We perform an efficiency calibration with a flexible planar source and model the configuration in the 4π cylindrical field. We then use exact calculus to model the flux on the cylindrical sides and end faces of the detector. We demonstrate that the model accurately represents the experimental detection efficiency compared to that of a point source and to Monte Carlo N-particle (MCNP) calculations of the flux. The model sums over the entire source surface area and the entire detector surface area including both faces and the detector's cylindrical sides. Agreement between the model and both experiment and the MCNP calculation is within 8%.

Timing and petroleum sources for the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group oil sands of northern Alberta based on 4-D modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, D.K.; Lewan, M.D.; Roberts, L.N.R.; Henry, M.

2009-01-01

The Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group oil sands of northern Alberta have an estimated 270.3 billion m3 (BCM) (1700 billion bbl) of in-place heavy oil and tar. Our study area includes oil sand accumulations and downdip areas that partially extend into the deformation zone in western Alberta. The oil sands are composed of highly biodegraded oil and tar, collectively referred to as bitumen, whose source remains controversial. This is addressed in our study with a four-dimensional (4-D) petroleum system model. The modeled primary trap for generated and migrated oil is subtle structures. A probable seal for the oil sands was a gradual updip removal of the lighter hydrocarbon fractions as migrated oil was progressively biodegraded. This is hypothetical because the modeling software did not include seals resulting from the biodegradation of oil. Although the 4-D model shows that source rocks ranging from the Devonian-Mississippian Exshaw Formation to the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group coals and Ostracode-zone-contributed oil to Mannville Group reservoirs, source rocks in the Jurassic Fernie Group (Gordondale Member and Poker Chip A shale) were the initial and major contributors. Kinetics associated with the type IIS kerogen in Fernie Group source rocks resulted in the early generation and expulsion of oil, as early as 85 Ma and prior to the generation from the type II kerogen of deeper and older source rocks. The modeled 50% peak transformation to oil was reached about 75 Ma for the Gordondale Member and Poker Chip A shale near the west margin of the study area, and prior to onset about 65 Ma from other source rocks. This early petroleum generation from the Fernie Group source rocks resulted in large volumes of generated oil, and prior to the Laramide uplift and onset of erosion (???58 Ma), which curtailed oil generation from all source rocks. Oil generation from all source rocks ended by 40 Ma. Although the modeled study area did not include possible western contributions of generated oil to the oil sands, the amount generated by the Jurassic source rocks within the study area was 475 BCM (2990 billion bbl). Copyright ?? 2009. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

A GIS-based atmospheric dispersion model for pollutants emitted by complex source areas.

PubMed

Teggi, Sergio; Costanzini, Sofia; Ghermandi, Grazia; Malagoli, Carlotta; Vinceti, Marco

2018-01-01

Gaussian dispersion models are widely used to simulate the concentrations and deposition fluxes of pollutants emitted by source areas. Very often, the calculation time limits the number of sources and receptors and the geometry of the sources must be simple and without holes. This paper presents CAREA, a new GIS-based Gaussian model for complex source areas. CAREA was coded in the Python language, and is largely based on a simplified formulation of the very popular and recognized AERMOD model. The model allows users to define in a GIS environment thousands of gridded or scattered receptors and thousands of complex sources with hundreds of vertices and holes. CAREA computes ground level, or near ground level, concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of pollutants. The input/output and the runs of the model can be completely managed in GIS environment (e.g. inside a GIS project). The paper presents the CAREA formulation and its applications to very complex test cases. The tests shows that the processing time are satisfactory and that the definition of sources and receptors and the output retrieval are quite easy in a GIS environment. CAREA and AERMOD are compared using simple and reproducible test cases. The comparison shows that CAREA satisfactorily reproduces AERMOD simulations and is considerably faster than AERMOD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wet deposition of mercury at a New York state rural site: Concentrations, fluxes, and source areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Soon-onn; Holsen, Thomas M.; Hopke, Philip K.; Liu, Peng

Event-based mercury (Hg) precipitation samples were collected with a modified MIC-B sampler between September 2003 and April 2005 at Potsdam, NY to investigate Hg in wet deposition and identify potential source areas using the potential source contribution function (PCSF) and residence time weighted concentration (RTWC) models. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) concentration and wet deposition flux were 5.5ngL-1 and 7.6μgm-2 during the study period, and 5.5ngL-1 and 5.9μgm-2 in 2004, respectively, and show seasonal trends with larger values in the spring and summer. The PSCF model results matched known source areas based on an emission inventory better than did the RTWC results based on the spatial correlation index. Both modeling results identified large Hg source areas that contain a number of coal-fired power plants located in the Upper Ohio River Valley and in southeastern Michigan, as well as in Quebec and Ontario where there are metal production facilities, waste incinerators and paper mills. Emissions from the Atlantic Ocean were also determined to be a potential source.

Detection of Warming Effects Due to Industrialization: An Accumulated Intervention Model with an Application in Pohang, Korea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryoo, S. B.; Moon, S. E.

1995-06-01

Modifications of surface air temperature caused by anthropogenic impacts have received much attention recently because of the heightened interest in climatic change. When an industrial area is constructed, resulting in a large-scale anthropogenic heat source, is it possible to detect the warming effect of the heat source? In this paper, the intensity of warming is estimated in the area of the source. A statistical model is suggested to estimate the warming caused by that anthropogenic heat source. The model used in this study is an accumulated intervention (AI) model that is applied to industrial heat perturbations that occurred in the area. To evaluate the AI model performance, the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset. The data used in this study are the monthly mean temperatures at Pohang, Korea. The AI model was developed based on the data for the 38-year period from 1953 to 1990, and the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset for the 2-year period from 1991 to 1992.

Identification and elucidation of anthropogenic source contribution in PM10 pollutant: Insight gain from dispersion and receptor models.

PubMed

Roy, Debananda; Singh, Gurdeep; Yadav, Pankaj

2016-10-01

Source apportionment study of PM 10 (Particulate Matter) in a critically polluted area of Jharia coalfield, India has been carried out using Dispersion model, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) techniques. Dispersion model Atmospheric Dispersion Model (AERMOD) was introduced to simplify the complexity of sources in Jharia coalfield. PCA and CMB analysis indicates that monitoring stations near the mining area were mainly affected by the emission from open coal mining and its associated activities such as coal transportation, loading and unloading of coal. Mine fire emission also contributed a considerable amount of particulate matters in monitoring stations. Locations in the city area were mostly affected by vehicular, Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) & Diesel Generator (DG) set emissions, residential, and commercial activities. The experimental data sampling and their analysis could aid understanding how dispersion based model technique along with receptor model based concept can be strategically used for quantitative analysis of Natural and Anthropogenic sources of PM 10 . Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Characterizing CO and NOy Sources and Relative Ambient Ratios in the Baltimore Area Using Ambient Measurements and Source Attribution Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Modeled source attribution information from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model was coupled with ambient data from the 2011 Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality Baltimore field study. We assess ...

Toxic metals in Venics lagoon sediments: Model, observation, an possible removal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, A.; Molinaroli, E.

1994-11-01

We have modeled the distribution of nine toxic metals in the surface sediments from 163 stations in the Venice lagoon using published data. Three entrances from the Adriatic Sea control the circulation in the lagoon and divide it into three basins. We assume, for purposes of modeling, that Porto Marghera at the head of the Industrial Zone area is the single source of toxic metals in the Venice lagoon. In a standing body of lagoon water, concentration of pollutants at distance x from the source (C{sub 0}) may be given by C=C{sub 0}e{sup -kx} where k is the rate constantmore » of dispersal. We calculated k empirically using concentrations at the source, and those farthest from it, that is the end points of the lagoon. Average k values (ppm/km) in the lagoon are: Zn 0.165, Cd 0.116, Hg 0.110, Cu 0.105, Co 0.072, Pb 0.058, Ni 0.008, Cr (0.011) and Fe (0.018 percent/km), and they have complex distributions. Given the k values, concentration at source (C{sub 0}), and the distance x of any point in the lagoon from the source, we have calculated the model concentrations of the nine metals at each sampling station. Tides, currents, floor morphology, additional sources, and continued dumping perturb model distributions causing anomalies (observed minus model concentrations). Positive anomalies are found near the source, where continued dumping perturbs initial boundary conditions, and in areas of sluggish circulation. Negative anomalies are found in areas with strong currents that may flush sediments out of the lagoon. We have thus identified areas in the lagoon where higher rate of sediment removal and exchange may lesson pollution. 41 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Assessing the pollution risk of a groundwater source field at western Laizhou Bay under seawater intrusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn

Coastal areas have great significance for human living, economy and society development in the world. With the rapid increase of pressures from human activities and climate change, the safety of groundwater resource is under the threat of seawater intrusion in coastal areas. The area of Laizhou Bay is one of the most serious seawater intruded areas in China, since seawater intrusion phenomenon was firstly recognized in the middle of 1970s. This study assessed the pollution risk of a groundwater source filed of western Laizhou Bay area by inferring the probability distribution of groundwater Cl{sup −} concentration. The numerical model ofmore » seawater intrusion process is built by using SEAWAT4. The parameter uncertainty of this model is evaluated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and DREAM{sub (ZS)} is used as sampling algorithm. Then, the predictive distribution of Cl{sup -} concentration at groundwater source field is inferred by using the samples of model parameters obtained from MCMC. After that, the pollution risk of groundwater source filed is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup -} concentration. The results of model calibration and verification demonstrate that the DREAM{sub (ZS)} based MCMC is efficient and reliable to estimate model parameters under current observation. Under the condition of 95% confidence level, the groundwater source point will not be polluted by seawater intrusion in future five years (2015–2019). In addition, the 2.5% and 97.5% predictive quantiles show that the Cl{sup −} concentration of groundwater source field always vary between 175 mg/l and 200 mg/l. - Highlights: • The parameter uncertainty of seawater intrusion model is evaluated by MCMC. • Groundwater source field won’t be polluted by seawater intrusion in future 5 years. • The pollution risk is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup −} concentration.« less

Identification of dust storm source areas in West Asia using multiple environmental datasets.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Amiraslani, Farshad; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Na

2015-01-01

Sand and Dust storms are common phenomena in arid and semi-arid areas. West Asia Region, especially Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognized as one of the most important dust source areas in the world. In this paper, a method is applied to extract SDS (Sand and Dust Storms) sources in West Asia region using thematic maps, climate and geography, HYSPLIT model and satellite images. Out of 50 dust storms happened during 2000-2013 and collected in form of MODIS images, 27 events were incorporated as demonstrations of the simulated trajectories by HYSPLIT model. Besides, a dataset of the newly released Landsat images was used as base-map for the interpretation of SDS source regions. As a result, six main clusters were recognized as dust source areas. Of which, 3 clusters situated in Tigris-Euphrates plain were identified as severe SDS sources (including 70% dust storms in this research). Another cluster in Sistan plain is also a potential source area. This approach also confirmed six main paths causing dust storms. These paths are driven by the climate system including Siberian and Polar anticyclones, monsoon from Indian Subcontinent and depression from north of Africa. The identification of SDS source areas and paths will improve our understandings on the mechanisms and impacts of dust storms on socio-economy and environment of the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing CO and NOy Sources and Relative Ambient Ratios in the Baltimore Area Using Ambient Measurements and Source Attribution Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Heather; Valin, Luke C.; Baker, Kirk R.; Henderson, Barron H.; Crawford, James H.; Pusede, Sally E.; Kelly, James T.; Foley, Kristen M.; Chris Owen, R.; Cohen, Ronald C.; Timin, Brian; Weinheimer, Andrew J.; Possiel, Norm; Misenis, Chris; Diskin, Glenn S.; Fried, Alan

2018-03-01

Modeled source attribution information from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model was coupled with ambient data from the 2011 Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality Baltimore field study. We assess source contributions and evaluate the utility of using aircraft measured CO and NOy relationships to constrain emission inventories. We derive ambient and modeled ΔCO:ΔNOy ratios that have previously been interpreted to represent CO:NOy ratios in emissions from local sources. Modeled and measured ΔCO:ΔNOy are similar; however, measured ΔCO:ΔNOy has much more daily variability than modeled values. Sector-based tagging shows that regional transport, on-road gasoline vehicles, and nonroad equipment are the major contributors to modeled CO mixing ratios in the Baltimore area. In addition to those sources, on-road diesel vehicles, soil emissions, and power plants also contribute substantially to modeled NOy in the area. The sector mix is important because emitted CO:NOx ratios vary by several orders of magnitude among the emission sources. The model-predicted gasoline/diesel split remains constant across all measurement locations in this study. Comparison of ΔCO:ΔNOy to emitted CO:NOy is challenged by ambient and modeled evidence that free tropospheric entrainment, and atmospheric processing elevates ambient ΔCO:ΔNOy above emitted ratios. Specifically, modeled ΔCO:ΔNOy from tagged mobile source emissions is enhanced 5-50% above the emitted ratios at times and locations of aircraft measurements. We also find a correlation between ambient formaldehyde concentrations and measured ΔCO:ΔNOy suggesting that secondary CO formation plays a role in these elevated ratios. This analysis suggests that ambient urban daytime ΔCO:ΔNOy values are not reflective of emitted ratios from individual sources.

Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cama, M.; Lombardo, L.; Conoscenti, C.; Rotigliano, E.

2017-07-01

Debris flows can be described as rapid gravity-induced mass movements controlled by topography that are usually triggered as a consequence of storm rainfalls. One of the problems when dealing with debris flow recognition is that the eroded surface is usually very shallow and it can be masked by vegetation or fast weathering as early as one-two years after a landslide has occurred. For this reason, even areas that are highly susceptible to debris flow might suffer of a lack of reliable landslide inventories. However, these inventories are necessary for susceptibility assessment. Model transferability, which is based on calibrating a susceptibility model in a training area in order to predict the distribution of debris flows in a target area, might provide an efficient solution to dealing with this limit. However, when applying a transferability procedure, a key point is the optimal selection of the predictors to be included for calibrating the model in the source area. In this paper, the issue of optimal factor selection is analysed by comparing the predictive performances obtained following three different factor selection criteria. The study includes: i) a test of the similarity between the source and the target areas; ii) the calibration of the susceptibility model in the (training) source area, using different criteria for the selection of the predictors; iii) the validation of the models, both at the source (self-validation, through random partition) and at the target (transferring, through spatial partition) areas. The debris flow susceptibility is evaluated here using binary logistic regression through a R-scripted based procedure. Two separate study areas were selected in the Messina province (southern Italy) in its Ionian (Itala catchment) and Tyrrhenian sides (Saponara catchment), each hit by a severe debris flow event (in 2009 and 2011, respectively). The investigation attested that the best fitting model in the calibration areas resulted poorly performing in predicting the landslides of the test target area. At the same time, the susceptibility models calibrated with an optimal set of covariates in the source area allowed us to produce a robust and accurate prediction image for the debris flows activated in the Saponara catchment in 2011, exploiting only the data known after the Itala-2009 event.

Identification of source locations for atmospheric dry deposition of heavy metals during yellow-sand events in Seoul, Korea in 1998 using hybrid receptor models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Young-Ji; Holsen, Thomas M.; Hopke, Philip K.; Cheong, Jang-Pyo; Kim, Ho; Yi, Seung-Muk

2004-10-01

Elemental dry deposition fluxes were measured using dry deposition plates from March to June 1998 in Seoul, Korea. During this spring sampling period several yellow-sand events characterized by long-range transport from China and Mongolia impacted the area. Understanding the impact of yellow-sand events on atmospheric dry deposition is critical to managing the heavy metal levels in the environment in Korea. In this study, the measured flux of a primarily crustal metal, Al and an anthropogenic metal, Pb was used with two hybrid receptor models, potential source contribution function (PSCF) and residence time weighted concentration (RTWC) for locating sources of heavy metals associated with atmospheric dry deposition fluxes during the yellow-sand events in Seoul, Korea. The PSCF using a criterion value of the 75th percentile of the measured dry deposition fluxes and RTWC results using the measured elemental dry deposition fluxes agreed well and consistently showed that there were large potential source areas in the Gobi Desert in China and Mongolia and industrial areas near Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shenyang in China. Major industrial areas of Shenyang, Fushun, and Anshan, the Central China loess plateau, the Gobi Desert, and the Alashan semi-desert in China were identified to be major source areas for the measured Pb flux in Seoul, Korea. For Al, the main industrial areas of Tangshan, Tianjin and Beijing, the Gobi Desert, the Alashan semi-desert, and the Central China loess plateau were found to be the major source areas. These results indicate that both anthropogenic sources such as industrial areas and natural sources such as deserts contribute to the high dry deposition fluxes of both Pb and Al in Seoul, Korea during yellow-sand events. RTWC resolved several high potential source areas. Modeling results indicated that the long-range transport of Al and Pb from China during yellow-sand events as well as non-yellow-sand spring daytimes increased atmospheric dry deposition of heavy metals in Korea.

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2004-10-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

Transport and solubility of Hetero-disperse dry deposition particulate matter subject to urban source area rainfall-runoff processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, G.; Sansalone, J.

2010-03-01

SummaryWith respect to hydrologic processes, the impervious pavement interface significantly alters relationships between rainfall and runoff. Commensurate with alteration of hydrologic processes the pavement also facilitates transport and solubility of dry deposition particulate matter (PM) in runoff. This study examines dry depositional flux rates, granulometric modification by runoff transport, as well as generation of total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity and conductivity in source area runoff resulting from PM solubility. PM is collected from a paved source area transportation corridor (I-10) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana encompassing 17 dry deposition and 8 runoff events. The mass-based granulometric particle size distribution (PSD) is measured and modeled through a cumulative gamma function, while PM surface area distributions across the PSD follow a log-normal distribution. Dry deposition flux rates are modeled as separate first-order exponential functions of previous dry hours (PDH) for PM and suspended, settleable and sediment fractions. When trans-located from dry deposition into runoff, PSDs are modified, with a d50m decreasing from 331 to 14 μm after transport and 60 min of settling. Solubility experiments as a function of pH, contact time and particle size using source area rainfall generate constitutive models to reproduce pH, alkalinity, TDS and alkalinity for historical events. Equilibrium pH, alkalinity and TDS are strongly influenced by particle size and contact times. The constitutive leaching models are combined with measured PSDs from a series of rainfall-runoff events to demonstrate that the model results replicate alkalinity and TDS in runoff from the subject watershed. Results illustrate the granulometry of dry deposition PM, modification of PSDs along the drainage pathway, and the role of PM solubility for generation of TDS, alkalinity and conductivity in urban source area rainfall-runoff.

Probability model for atmospheric sulfur dioxide concentrations in the area of Venice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buttazzoni, C.; Lavagnini, I.; Marani, A.

1986-09-01

This paper deals with a comparative screening of existing air quality models based on their ability to simulate the distribution of sulfur dioxide data in the Venetian area. Investigations have been carried out on sulfur dioxide dispersion in the atmosphere of the Venetian area. The studies have been mainly focused on transport models (Gaussian, plume and K-models) aiming at meaningful correlations of sources and receptors. Among the results, a noteworthy disagreement of simulated and experimental data, due to the lack of thorough knowledge of source field conditions and of local meteorology of the sea-land transition area, has been shown. Investigationsmore » with receptor oriented models (based, e.g., on time series analysis, Fourier analysis, or statistical distributions) have also been performed.« less

Geospatial Analysis of Atmospheric Haze Effect by Source and Sink Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, T.; Xu, K.; Yuan, Z.

2017-09-01

Based on geospatial analysis model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the landscape patterns of source and sink in urban areas and atmospheric haze pollution. Firstly, the classification result and aerosol optical thickness (AOD) of Wuhan are divided into a number of square grids with the side length of 6 km, and the category level landscape indices (PLAND, PD, COHESION, LPI, FRAC_MN) and AOD of each grid are calculated. Then the source and sink landscapes of atmospheric haze pollution are selected based on the analysis of the correlation between landscape indices and AOD. Next, to make the following analysis more efficient, the indices selected before should be determined through the correlation coefficient between them. Finally, due to the spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity of the data used in this paper, spatial autoregressive model and geo-weighted regression model are used to analyze atmospheric haze effect by source and sink landscape from the global and local level. The results show that the source landscape of atmospheric haze pollution is the building, and the sink landscapes are shrub and woodland. PLAND, PD and COHESION are suitable for describing the atmospheric haze effect by source and sink landscape. Comparing these models, the fitting effect of SLM, SEM and GWR is significantly better than that of OLS model. The SLM model is superior to the SEM model in this paper. Although the fitting effect of GWR model is more unsuited than that of SLM, the influence degree of influencing factors on atmospheric haze of different geography can be expressed clearer. Through the analysis results of these models, following conclusions can be summarized: Reducing the proportion of source landscape area and increasing the degree of fragmentation could cut down aerosol optical thickness; And distributing the source and sink landscape evenly and interspersedly could effectively reduce aerosol optical thickness which represents atmospheric haze pollution; For Wuhan City, the method of adjusting the built-up area slightly and planning the non-built-up areas reasonably can be taken to reduce atmospheric haze pollution.

Critical Source Area Delineation: The representation of hydrology in effective erosion modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, A.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E. S.; Boylan, R. D.

2017-12-01

Despite decades of conservation and millions of conservation dollars, nonpoint source sediment loading associated with agricultural disturbance continues to be a significant problem in many parts of the world. Local and national conservation organizations are interested in targeting critical source areas for control strategy implementation. Currently, conservation practices are selected and located based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) hillslope erosion modeling, and the National Resource Conservation Service will soon be transiting to the Watershed Erosion Predict Project (WEPP) model for the same purpose. We present an assessment of critical source areas targeted with RUSLE, WEPP and a regionally validated hydrology model, the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model, to compare the location of critical areas for sediment loading and the effectiveness of control strategies. The three models are compared for the Palouse dryland cropping region of the inland northwest, with un-calibrated analyses of the Kamiache watershed using publicly available soils, land-use and long-term simulated climate data. Critical source areas were mapped and the side-by-side comparison exposes the differences in the location and timing of runoff and erosion predictions. RUSLE results appear most sensitive to slope driving processes associated with infiltration excess. SMR captured saturation excess driven runoff events located at the toe slope position, while WEPP was able to capture both infiltration excess and saturation excess processes depending on soil type and management. A methodology is presented for down-scaling basin level screening to the hillslope management scale for local control strategies. Information on the location of runoff and erosion, driven by the runoff mechanism, is critical for effective treatment and conservation.

Seismic source inversion using Green's reciprocity and a 3-D structural model for the Japanese Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simutė, S.; Fichtner, A.

2015-12-01

We present a feasibility study for seismic source inversions using a 3-D velocity model for the Japanese Islands. The approach involves numerically calculating 3-D Green's tensors, which is made efficient by exploiting Green's reciprocity. The rationale for 3-D seismic source inversion has several aspects. For structurally complex regions, such as the Japan area, it is necessary to account for 3-D Earth heterogeneities to prevent unknown structure polluting source solutions. In addition, earthquake source characterisation can serve as a means to delineate existing faults. Source parameters obtained for more realistic Earth models can then facilitate improvements in seismic tomography and early warning systems, which are particularly important for seismically active areas, such as Japan. We have created a database of numerically computed 3-D Green's reciprocals for a 40°× 40°× 600 km size area around the Japanese Archipelago for >150 broadband stations. For this we used a regional 3-D velocity model, recently obtained from full waveform inversion. The model includes attenuation and radial anisotropy and explains seismic waveform data for periods between 10 - 80 s generally well. The aim is to perform source inversions using the database of 3-D Green's tensors. As preliminary steps, we present initial concepts to address issues that are at the basis of our approach. We first investigate to which extent Green's reciprocity works in a discrete domain. Considering substantial amounts of computed Green's tensors we address storage requirements and file formatting. We discuss the importance of the initial source model, as an intelligent choice can substantially reduce the search volume. Possibilities to perform a Bayesian inversion and ways to move to finite source inversion are also explored.

Using a source-receptor approach to characterise VOC behaviour in a French urban area influenced by industrial emissions. Part II: source contribution assessment using the Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) model.

PubMed

Badol, Caroline; Locoge, Nadine; Galloo, Jean-Claude

2008-01-25

In Part I of this study (Badol C, Locoge N, Leonardis T, Gallo JC. Using a source-receptor approach to characterise VOC behaviour in a French urban area influenced by industrial emissions, Part I: Study area description, data set acquisition and qualitative data analysis of the data set. Sci Total Environ 2007; submitted as companion manuscript.) the study area, acquisition of the one-year data set and qualitative analysis of the data set have been described. In Part II a source profile has been established for each activity present in the study area: 6 profiles (urban heating, solvent use, natural gas leakage, biogenic emissions, gasoline evaporation and vehicle exhaust) have been extracted from literature to characterise urban sources, 7 industrial profiles have been established via canister sampling around industrial plants (hydrocarbon cracking, oil refinery, hydrocarbon storage, lubricant storage, lubricant refinery, surface treatment and metallurgy). The CMB model is briefly described and its implementation is discussed through the selection of source profiles and fitting species. Main results of CMB modellings for the Dunkerque area are presented. (1) The daily evolution of source contributions for the urban wind sector shows that the vehicle exhaust source contribution varies between 40 and 55% and its relative increase at traffic rush hours is hardly perceptible. (2) The relative contribution of vehicle exhaust varies from 55% in winter down to 30% in summer. This decrease is due to the increase of the relative contribution of hydrocarbon storage source reaching up to 20% in summer. (3) The evolution of source contributions with wind directions has confirmed that in urban wind sectors the contribution of vehicle exhaust dominate with around 45-55%. For the other wind sectors that include some industrial plants, the contribution of industrial sources is around 60% and could reach 80% for the sector 280-310 degrees , which corresponds to the most dense industrial area. (4) The pollution in Dunkerque has been globally characterised taking into account the frequency of wind directions and contributions of sources in each wind direction for the whole year. It has been concluded that contribution of industrial sources is below 20% whereas vehicle exhaust contribution is superior to 40%.

Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: a model inter-comparison

EPA Science Inventory

A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versio...

Comparison of hybrid receptor models to locate PCB sources in Chicago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Holsen, Thomas M.; Hopke, Philip K.

Results of three hybrid receptor models, potential source contribution function (PSCF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and residence time weighted concentration (RTWC), were compared for locating polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) sources contributing to the atmospheric concentrations in Chicago. Variations of these models, including PSCF using mean and 75% criterion concentrations, joint probability PSCF (JP-PSCF), changes of point filters and grid cell sizes for RTWC, and PSCF using wind trajectories started at different altitudes, are also discussed. Modeling results were relatively consistent between models. However, no single model provided as complete information as was obtained by using all of them. CWT and 75% PSCF appears to be able to distinguish between larger sources and moderate ones. RTWC resolved high potential source areas. RTWC and JP-PSCF pooling data from all sampling sites removed the trailing effect often seen in PSCF modeling. PSCF results using average concentration criteria, appears to identify both moderate and major sources. Each model has advantages and disadvantages. However, used in combination, they provide information that is not available if only one of them is used. For short-range atmospheric transport, PSCF results were consistent when using wind trajectories starting at different heights. Based on the archived PCB data, the modeling results indicate there is a large potential source area between Joliet and Kankakee, IL, and two moderate sources to the northwest and south of Chicago. On the south side of Chicago in the neighborhood of Lake Calumet, several PCB sources were identified. Other unidentified potential source location(s) will require additional upwind/downwind field sampling to verify modeling results.

Effects of Grid Resolution on Modeled Air Pollutant Concentrations Due to Emissions from Large Point Sources: Case Study during KORUS-AQ 2016 Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, H.; Bae, C.; Kim, B. U.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Large point sources in the Chungnam area received a nation-wide attention in South Korea because the area is located southwest of the Seoul Metropolitan Area whose population is over 22 million and the summertime prevalent winds in the area is northeastward. Therefore, emissions from the large point sources in the Chungnam area were one of the major observation targets during the KORUS-AQ 2016 including aircraft measurements. In general, horizontal grid resolutions of eulerian photochemical models have profound effects on estimated air pollutant concentrations. It is due to the formulation of grid models; that is, emissions in a grid cell will be assumed to be mixed well under planetary boundary layers regardless of grid cell sizes. In this study, we performed series of simulations with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with eXetension (CAMx). For 9-km and 3-km simulations, we used meteorological fields obtained from the Weather Research and Forecast model while utilizing the "Flexi-nesting" option in the CAMx for the 1-km simulation. In "Flexi-nesting" mode, CAMx interpolates or assigns model inputs from the immediate parent grid. We compared modeled concentrations with ground observation data as well as aircraft measurements to quantify variations of model bias and error depending on horizontal grid resolutions.

Model assessment of atmospheric pollution control schemes for critical emission regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Shixian; An, Xingqin; Liu, Zhao; Sun, Zhaobin; Hou, Qing

2016-01-01

In recent years, the atmospheric environment in portions of China has become significantly degraded and the need for emission controls has become urgent. Because more international events are being planned, it is important to implement air quality assurance targeted at significant events held over specific periods of time. This study sets Yanqihu (YQH), Beijing, the location of the 2014 Beijing APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit, as the target region. By using the atmospheric inversion model FLEXPART, we determined the sensitive source zones that had the greatest impact on the air quality of the YQH region in November 2012. We then used the air-quality model Models-3/CMAQ and a high-resolution emissions inventory of the Beijing-Tianjian-Hebei region to establish emission reduction tests for the entire source area and for specific sensitive source zones. This was achieved by initiating emission reduction schemes at different ratios and different times. The results showed that initiating a moderate reduction of emissions days prior to a potential event is more beneficial to the air quality of Beijing than initiating a high-strength reduction campaign on the day of the event. The sensitive source zone of Beijing (BJ-Sens) accounts for 54.2% of the total source area of Beijing (BJ), but its reduction effect reaches 89%-100% of the total area, with a reduction efficiency 1.6-1.9 times greater than that of the entire area. The sensitive source zone of Huabei (HuaB-Sens.) only represents 17.6% of the total area of Huabei (HuaB), but its emission reduction effect reaches 59%-97% of the entire area, with a reduction efficiency 4.2-5.5 times greater than that of the total area. The earlier that emission reduction measures are implemented, the greater the effect they have on preventing the transmission of pollutants. In addition, expanding the controlling areas to sensitive provinces and cities around Beijing (HuaB-sens) can significantly accelerate the reduction effects compared to controlling measures only in the Beijing sensitive source zone (BJ-Sens). Therefore, when enacting emission reduction schemes, cooperating with surrounding provinces and cities, as well as narrowing the reduction scope to specific sensitive source zones prior to unfavorable meteorological conditions, can help reduce emissions control costs and improve the efficiency and maneuverability of emission reduction schemes.

Calculation and analysis of the non-point source pollution in the upstream watershed of the Panjiakou Reservoir, People's Republic of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Tang, L.

2007-05-01

Panjiakou Reservoir is an important drinking water resource in Haihe River Basin, Hebei Province, People's Republic of China. The upstream watershed area is about 35,000 square kilometers. Recently, the water pollution in the reservoir is becoming more serious owing to the non-point pollution as well as point source pollution on the upstream watershed. To effectively manage the reservoir and watershed and develop a plan to reduce pollutant loads, the loading of non-point and point pollution and their distribution on the upstream watershed must be understood fully. The SWAT model is used to simulate the production and transportation of the non-point source pollutants in the upstream watershed of the Panjiakou Reservoir. The loadings of non-point source pollutants are calculated for different hydrologic years and the spatial and temporal characteristics of non-point source pollution are studied. The stream network and topographic characteristics of the stream network and sub-basins are all derived from the DEM by ArcGIS software. The soil and land use data are reclassified and the soil physical properties database file is created for the model. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data of several hydrologic monitoring stations in the study area. The results of the calibration show that the model performs fairly well. Then the calibrated model was used to calculate the loadings of non-point source pollutants for a wet year, a normal year and a dry year respectively. The time and space distribution of flow, sediment and non-point source pollution were analyzed depending on the simulated results. The comparison of different hydrologic years on calculation results is dramatic. The loading of non-point source pollution in the wet year is relatively larger but smaller in the dry year since the non-point source pollutants are mainly transported through the runoff. The pollution loading within a year is mainly produced in the flood season. Because SWAT is a distributed model, it is possible to view model output as it varies across the basin, so the critical areas and reaches can be found in the study area. According to the simulation results, it is found that different land uses can yield different results and fertilization in rainy season has an important impact on the non- point source pollution. The limitations of the SWAT model are also discussed and the measures of the control and prevention of non- point source pollution for Panjiakou Reservoir are presented according to the analysis of model calculation results.

Potential sources of nitrous acid (HONO) and their impacts on ozone: A WRF-Chem study in a polluted subtropical region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Wang, Tao; Zhang, Qiang; Zheng, Junyu; Xu, Zheng; Lv, Mengyao

2016-04-01

Current chemical transport models commonly undersimulate the atmospheric concentration of nitrous acid (HONO), which plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, due to the lack or inappropriate representations of some sources in the models. In the present study, we parameterized up-to-date HONO sources into a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry: WRF-Chem). These sources included (1) heterogeneous reactions on ground surfaces with the photoenhanced effect on HONO production, (2) photoenhanced reactions on aerosol surfaces, (3) direct vehicle and vessel emissions, (4) potential conversion of NO2 at the ocean surface, and (5) emissions from soil bacteria. The revised WRF-Chem was applied to explore the sources of the high HONO concentrations (0.45-2.71 ppb) observed at a suburban site located within complex land types (with artificial land covers, ocean, and forests) in Hong Kong. With the addition of these sources, the revised model substantially reproduced the observed HONO levels. The heterogeneous conversions of NO2 on ground surfaces dominated HONO sources contributing about 42% to the observed HONO mixing ratios, with emissions from soil bacterial contributing around 29%, followed by the oceanic source (~9%), photochemical formation via NO and OH (~6%), conversion on aerosol surfaces (~3%), and traffic emissions (~2%). The results suggest that HONO sources in suburban areas could be more complex and diverse than those in urban or rural areas and that the bacterial and/or ocean processes need to be considered in HONO production in forested and/or coastal areas. Sensitivity tests showed that the simulated HONO was sensitive to the uptake coefficient of NO2 on the surfaces. Incorporation of the aforementioned HONO sources significantly improved the simulations of ozone, resulting in increases of ground-level ozone concentrations by 6-12% over urban areas in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region. This result highlights the importance of accurately representing HONO sources in simulations of secondary pollutants over polluted regions.

Identification of phosphorus emission hotspots in agricultural catchments

PubMed Central

Kovacs, Adam; Honti, Mark; Zessner, Matthias; Eder, Alexander; Clement, Adrienne; Blöschl, Günter

2012-01-01

An enhanced transport-based management approach is presented, which is able to support cost-effective water quality management with respect to diffuse phosphorus pollution. Suspended solids and particulate phosphorus emissions and their transport were modeled in two hilly agricultural watersheds (Wulka River in Austria and Zala River in Hungary) with an improved version of the catchment-scale PhosFate model. Source and transmission areas were ranked by an optimization method in order to provide a priority list of the areas of economically efficient (optimal) management alternatives. The model was calibrated and validated at different gauges and for various years. The spatial distribution of the emissions shows that approximately one third of the catchment area is responsible for the majority of the emissions. However, only a few percent of the source areas can transport fluxes to the catchment outlet. These effective source areas, together with the main transmission areas are potential candidates for improved management practices. In accordance with the critical area concept, it was shown that intervention with better management practices on a properly selected small proportion of the total area (1–3%) is sufficient to reach a remarkable improvement in water quality. If soil nutrient management is also considered in addition to water quality, intervention on 4–12% of the catchment areas can fulfill both aspects. PMID:22771465

A comparison of NEWS and SPARROW models to understand sources of nitrogen delivered to US coastal areas

EPA Science Inventory

The relative contributions of different anthropogenic and natural sources of in-stream nitrogen (N) cannot be directly measured at whole-watershed scales. Hence, source attribution estimates beyond the scale of small catchments must rely on models. Although such estimates have be...

A HYBRID MODELING APPROACH TO RESOLVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS IN AN URBAN AREA

EPA Science Inventory

A modeling tool that can resolve contributions from individual sources to the urban environment is critical for air-toxics exposure assessments. Air toxics are often chemically reactive and may have background concentrations originated from distant sources. Grid models are the be...

Palynology after Y2K--Understanding the Source Area of Pollen in Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. B.

Pollen grains preserved in lake and bog sediment provide a record of past vegetation that has been an important source of information about climate and land cover during the Quaternary Period. Yet from the beginning, questions have been raised about the source area of pollen in sediment. Interpretation has been hampered by the lack of well-developed theory treating the relationship between the spatial distribution of trees on the landscape and the percentages of pollen in sediment. Within the past decade, however, new theory, models, and empirical data show how heterogeneous vegetation is represented by pollen. The distinction between "local" and "regional" pollen is explained by the Prentice-Sugita dispersal/deposition models, which predict how the ratio of regional to local pollen changes with lake size. Sugita's model simulating a landscape with heterogeneous vegetation predicts the size of the relevant source area-the area of vegetation reflected in between-lake variations in pollen loading-while demonstrating that regional pollen from beyond this distance is homogeneous at all lakes of similar size. By predicting the way landscape patterns will be reflected in pollen records, simulation models can improve research design and lead to more detailed and spatially precise records of past vegetation, enhancing continental-scale climate reconstructions.

Cancer Related-Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

These model-based estimates are produced using statistical models that combine data from the Health Information National Trends Survey, and auxiliary variables obtained from relevant sources and borrow strength from other areas with similar characteristics.

Applications of stochastic models and geostatistical analyses to study sources and spatial patterns of soil heavy metals in a metalliferous industrial district of China.

PubMed

Zhong, Buqing; Liang, Tao; Wang, Lingqing; Li, Kexin

2014-08-15

An extensive soil survey was conducted to study pollution sources and delineate contamination of heavy metals in one of the metalliferous industrial bases, in the karst areas of southwest China. A total of 597 topsoil samples were collected and the concentrations of five heavy metals, namely Cd, As (metalloid), Pb, Hg and Cr were analyzed. Stochastic models including a conditional inference tree (CIT) and a finite mixture distribution model (FMDM) were applied to identify the sources and partition the contribution from natural and anthropogenic sources for heavy metal in topsoils of the study area. Regression trees for Cd, As, Pb and Hg were proved to depend mostly on indicators of anthropogenic activities such as industrial type and distance from urban area, while the regression tree for Cr was found to be mainly influenced by the geogenic characteristics. The FMDM analysis showed that the geometric means of modeled background values for Cd, As, Pb, Hg and Cr were close to their background values previously reported in the study area, while the contamination of Cd and Hg were widespread in the study area, imposing potentially detrimental effects on organisms through the food chain. Finally, the probabilities of single and multiple heavy metals exceeding the threshold values derived from the FMDM were estimated using indicator kriging (IK) and multivariate indicator kriging (MVIK). The high probabilities exceeding the thresholds of heavy metals were associated with metalliferous production and atmospheric deposition of heavy metals transported from the urban and industrial areas. Geostatistics coupled with stochastic models provide an effective way to delineate multiple heavy metal pollution to facilitate improved environmental management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, part I: Validation using the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; Zoback, M.L.

2008-01-01

We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source models of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. In preparation for modeling the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, we use this well-recorded earthquake to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source models and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave-propagation codes for a given source model suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that a source model with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source models. Although the new 3D seismic velocity model improves upon previous velocity models, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity model and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for modeling the 1906 earthquake and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Source apportionment of formaldehyde during TexAQS 2006 using a source-oriented chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongliang; Li, Jingyi; Ying, Qi; Guven, Birnur Buzcu; Olaguer, Eduardo P.

2013-02-01

In this study, a source-oriented version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was developed and used to quantify the contributions of five major local emission source types in Southeast Texas (vehicles, industry, natural gas combustion, wildfires, biogenic sources), as well as upwind sources, to regional primary and secondary formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations. Predicted HCHO concentrations agree well with observations at two urban sites (the Moody Tower [MT] site at the University of Houston and the Haden Road #3 [HRM-3] site operated by Texas Commission on Environmental Quality). However, the model underestimates concentrations at an industrial site (Lynchburg Ferry). Throughout most of Southeast Texas, primary HCHO accounts for approximately 20-30% of total HCHO, while the remaining portion is due to secondary HCHO (30-50%) and upwind sources (20-50%). Biogenic sources, natural gas combustion, and vehicles are important sources of primary HCHO in the urban Houston area, respectively, accounting for 10-20%, 10-30%, and 20-60% of total primary HCHO. Biogenic sources, industry, and vehicles are the top three sources of secondary HCHO, respectively, accounting for 30-50%, 10-30%, and 5-15% of overall secondary HCHO. It was also found that over 70% of PAN in the Houston area is due to upwind sources, and only 30% is formed locally. The model-predicted source contributions to HCHO at the MT generally agree with source apportionment results obtained from the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) technique.

Sources and geographic origin of particulate matter in urban areas of the Danube macro-region: The cases of Zagreb (Croatia), Budapest (Hungary) and Sofia (Bulgaria).

PubMed

Perrone, M G; Vratolis, S; Georgieva, E; Török, S; Šega, K; Veleva, B; Osán, J; Bešlić, I; Kertész, Z; Pernigotti, D; Eleftheriadis, K; Belis, C A

2018-04-01

The contribution of main PM pollution sources and their geographic origin in three urban sites of the Danube macro-region (Zagreb, Budapest and Sofia) were determined by combining receptor and Lagrangian models. The source contribution estimates were obtained with the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor model and the results were further examined using local wind data and backward trajectories obtained with FLEXPART. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis was applied to identify the geographical source areas for the PM sources subject to long-range transport. Gas-to-particle transformation processes and primary emissions from biomass burning are the most important contributors to PM in the studied sites followed by re-suspension of soil (crustal material) and traffic. These four sources can be considered typical of the Danube macro-region because they were identified in all the studied locations. Long-range transport was observed of: a) sulphate-enriched aged aerosols, deriving from SO 2 emissions in combustion processes in the Balkans and Eastern Europe and b) dust from the Saharan and Karakum deserts. The study highlights that PM pollution in the studied urban areas of the Danube macro-region is the result of both local sources and long-range transport from both EU and no-EU areas. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Partitioning the Uncertainty in Estimates of Mean Basal Area Obtained from 10-year Diameter Growth Model Predictions

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2005-01-01

Uncertainty in model-based predictions of individual tree diameter growth is attributed to three sources: measurement error for predictor variables, residual variability around model predictions, and uncertainty in model parameter estimates. Monte Carlo simulations are used to propagate the uncertainty from the three sources through a set of diameter growth models to...

Implications from XMM and Chandra Source Catalogs for Future Studies with Lynx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ptak, Andrew

2018-01-01

Lynx will perform extremely sensitive X-ray surveys by combining very high-resolution imaging over a large field of view with a high effective area. These will include deep planned surveys and serendipitous source surveys. Here we discuss implications that can be gleaned from current Chandra and XMM-Newton serendipitous source surveys. These current surveys have discovered novel sources such as tidal disruption events, binary AGN, and ULX pulsars. In addition these surveys have detected large samples of normal galaxies, low-luminosity AGN and quasars due to the wide-area coverage of the Chandra and XMM-Newton source catalogs, allowing the evolution of these phenonema to be explored. The wide area Lynx surveys will probe down further in flux and will be coupled with very sensitive wide-area surveys such as LSST and SKA, allowing for detailed modeling of their SEDs and the discovery of rare, exotic sources and transient events.

Geochemical evolution of groundwater in the Mud Lake area, eastern Idaho, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rattray, Gordon W.

2015-01-01

Groundwater with elevated dissolved-solids concentrations—containing large concentrations of chloride, sodium, sulfate, and calcium—is present in the Mud Lake area of Eastern Idaho. The source of these solutes is unknown; however, an understanding of the geochemical sources and processes controlling their presence in groundwater in the Mud Lake area is needed to better understand the geochemical sources and processes controlling the water quality of groundwater at the Idaho National Laboratory. The geochemical sources and processes controlling the water quality of groundwater in the Mud Lake area were determined by investigating the geology, hydrology, land use, and groundwater geochemistry in the Mud Lake area, proposing sources for solutes, and testing the proposed sources through geochemical modeling with PHREEQC. Modeling indicated that sources of water to the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer were groundwater from the Beaverhead Mountains and the Camas Creek drainage basin; surface water from Medicine Lodge and Camas Creeks, Mud Lake, and irrigation water; and upward flow of geothermal water from beneath the aquifer. Mixing of groundwater with surface water or other groundwater occurred throughout the aquifer. Carbonate reactions, silicate weathering, and dissolution of evaporite minerals and fertilizer explain most of the changes in chemistry in the aquifer. Redox reactions, cation exchange, and evaporation were locally important. The source of large concentrations of chloride, sodium, sulfate, and calcium was evaporite deposits in the unsaturated zone associated with Pleistocene Lake Terreton. Large amounts of chloride, sodium, sulfate, and calcium are added to groundwater from irrigation water infiltrating through lake bed sediments containing evaporite deposits and the resultant dissolution of gypsum, halite, sylvite, and bischofite.

A Bayesian methodological framework for accommodating interannual variability of nutrient loading with the SPARROW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Labencki, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2012-10-01

Regression-type, hybrid empirical/process-based models (e.g., SPARROW, PolFlow) have assumed a prominent role in efforts to estimate the sources and transport of nutrient pollution at river basin scales. However, almost no attempts have been made to explicitly accommodate interannual nutrient loading variability in their structure, despite empirical and theoretical evidence indicating that the associated source/sink processes are quite variable at annual timescales. In this study, we present two methodological approaches to accommodate interannual variability with the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nonlinear regression model. The first strategy uses the SPARROW model to estimate a static baseline load and climatic variables (e.g., precipitation) to drive the interannual variability. The second approach allows the source/sink processes within the SPARROW model to vary at annual timescales using dynamic parameter estimation techniques akin to those used in dynamic linear models. Model parameterization is founded upon Bayesian inference techniques that explicitly consider calibration data and model uncertainty. Our case study is the Hamilton Harbor watershed, a mixed agricultural and urban residential area located at the western end of Lake Ontario, Canada. Our analysis suggests that dynamic parameter estimation is the more parsimonious of the two strategies tested and can offer insights into the temporal structural changes associated with watershed functioning. Consistent with empirical and theoretical work, model estimated annual in-stream attenuation rates varied inversely with annual discharge. Estimated phosphorus source areas were concentrated near the receiving water body during years of high in-stream attenuation and dispersed along the main stems of the streams during years of low attenuation, suggesting that nutrient source areas are subject to interannual variability.

Using SPARROW to Model Total Nitrogen Sources, and Transport in Rivers and Streams of California and Adjacent States, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, D.; Domagalski, J. L.

2012-12-01

Sources and factors affecting the transport of total nitrogen are being evaluated for a study area that covers most of California and some areas in Oregon and Nevada, by using the SPARROW model (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Mass loads of total nitrogen calculated for monitoring sites at stream gauging stations are regressed against land-use factors affecting nitrogen transport, including fertilizer use, recharge, atmospheric deposition, stream characteristics, and other factors to understand how total nitrogen is transported under average conditions. SPARROW models have been used successfully in other parts of the country to understand how nutrients are transported, and how management strategies can be formulated, such as with Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) assessments. Fertilizer use, atmospheric deposition, and climatic data were obtained for 2002, and loads for that year were calculated for monitored streams and point sources (mostly from wastewater treatment plants). The stream loads were calculated by using the adjusted maximum likelihood estimation method (AMLE). River discharge and nitrogen concentrations were de-trended in these calculations in order eliminate the effect of temporal changes on stream load. Effluent discharge information as well as total nitrogen concentrations from point sources were obtained from USEPA databases and from facility records. The model indicates that atmospheric deposition and fertilizer use account for a large percentage of the total nitrogen load in many of the larger watersheds throughout the study area. Point sources, on the other hand, are generally localized around large cities, are considered insignificant sources, and account for a small percentage of the total nitrogen loads throughout the study area.

Detecting black bear source-sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs.

PubMed

Draheim, Hope M; Moore, Jennifer A; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R; Scribner, Kim T

2016-07-27

Source-sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source-sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source-sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source-sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. © 2016 The Author(s).

Analysis of Seismic Moment Tensor and Finite-Source Scaling During EGS Resource Development at The Geysers, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, O. S.; Dreger, D. S.; Gritto, R.

2015-12-01

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource development requires knowledge of subsurface physical parameters to quantify the evolution of fracture networks. We investigate seismicity in the vicinity of the EGS development at The Geysers Prati-32 injection well to determine moment magnitude, focal mechanism, and kinematic finite-source models with the goal of developing a rupture area scaling relationship for the Geysers and specifically for the Prati-32 EGS injection experiment. Thus far we have analyzed moment tensors of M ≥ 2 events, and are developing the capability to analyze the large numbers of events occurring as a result of the fluid injection and to push the analysis to smaller magnitude earthquakes. We have also determined finite-source models for five events ranging in magnitude from M 3.7 to 4.5. The scaling relationship between rupture area and moment magnitude of these events resembles that of a published empirical relationship derived for events from M 4.5 to 8.3. We plan to develop a scaling relationship in which moment magnitude and corner frequency are predictor variables for source rupture area constrained by the finite-source modeling. Inclusion of corner frequency in the empirical scaling relationship is proposed to account for possible variations in stress drop. If successful, we will use this relationship to extrapolate to the large numbers of events in the EGS seismicity cloud to estimate the coseismic fracture density. We will present the moment tensor and corner frequency results for the micro earthquakes, and for select events, finite-source models. Stress drop inferred from corner frequencies and from finite-source modeling will be compared.

A Workflow to Model Microbial Loadings in Watersheds ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many watershed models simulate overland and instream microbial fate and transport, but few actually provide loading rates on land surfaces and point sources to the water body network. This paper describes the underlying general equations for microbial loading rates associated with 1) land-applied manure on undeveloped areas from domestic animals; 2) direct shedding on undeveloped lands by domestic animals and wildlife; 3) urban or engineered areas; and 4) point sources that directly discharge to streams from septic systems and shedding by domestic animals. A microbial source module, which houses these formulations, is linked within a workflow containing eight models and a set of databases that form a loosely configured modeling infrastructure which supports watershed-scale microbial source-to-receptor modeling by focusing on animal-impacted catchments. A hypothetical example application – accessing, retrieving, and using real-world data – demonstrates the ability of the infrastructure to automate many of the manual steps associated with a standard watershed assessment, culminating with calibrated flow and microbial densities at the pour point of a watershed. Presented at 2016 Biennial Conference, International Environmental Modelling & Software Society.

Meteorological and air pollution modeling for an urban airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swan, P. R.; Lee, I. Y.

1980-01-01

Results are presented of numerical experiments modeling meteorology, multiple pollutant sources, and nonlinear photochemical reactions for the case of an airport in a large urban area with complex terrain. A planetary boundary-layer model which predicts the mixing depth and generates wind, moisture, and temperature fields was used; it utilizes only surface and synoptic boundary conditions as input data. A version of the Hecht-Seinfeld-Dodge chemical kinetics model is integrated with a new, rapid numerical technique; both the San Francisco Bay Area Air Quality Management District source inventory and the San Jose Airport aircraft inventory are utilized. The air quality model results are presented in contour plots; the combined results illustrate that the highly nonlinear interactions which are present require that the chemistry and meteorology be considered simultaneously to make a valid assessment of the effects of individual sources on regional air quality.

Inter-comparison of receptor models for PM source apportionment: Case study in an industrial area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana, M.; Pandolfi, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Monfort, E.; Celades, I.

2008-05-01

Receptor modelling techniques are used to identify and quantify the contributions from emission sources to the levels and major and trace components of ambient particulate matter (PM). A wide variety of receptor models are currently available, and consequently the comparability between models should be evaluated if source apportionment data are to be used as input in health effects studies or mitigation plans. Three of the most widespread receptor models (principal component analysis, PCA; positive matrix factorization, PMF; chemical mass balance, CMB) were applied to a single PM10 data set (n=328 samples, 2002-2005) obtained from an industrial area in NE Spain, dedicated to ceramic production. Sensitivity and temporal trend analyses (using the Mann-Kendall test) were applied. Results evidenced the good overall performance of the three models (r2>0.83 and α>0.91×between modelled and measured PM10 mass), with a good agreement regarding source identification and high correlations between input (CMB) and output (PCA, PMF) source profiles. Larger differences were obtained regarding the quantification of source contributions (up to a factor of 4 in some cases). The combined application of different types of receptor models would solve the limitations of each of the models, by constructing a more robust solution based on their strengths. The authors suggest the combined use of factor analysis techniques (PCA, PMF) to identify and interpret emission sources, and to obtain a first quantification of their contributions to the PM mass, and the subsequent application of CMB. Further research is needed to ensure that source apportionment methods are robust enough for application to PM health effects assessments.

Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

We inverted 13 tsunami waveforms recorded in Japan to estimate the slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1), which occurred southeast off Hokkaido along the southern Kuril subduction zone. The previously estimated source area determined from tsunami travel times [Hatori, 1973] did not coincide with the observed aftershock distribution. Our results show that a large amount of slip occurred in the aftershock area east of Hatori's tsunami source area, suggesting that a portion of the interplate thrust near the trench was ruptured by the main shock. We also found more than 5 m of slip along the deeper part of the seismogenic interface, just below the central part of Hatori's tsunami source area. This region, which also has the largest stress drop during the main shock, had few aftershocks. Large tsunami heights on the eastern Hokkaido coast are better explained by the heterogeneous slip model than previous uniform-slip fault models. The total seismic moment is estimated to be 1.87 ?? 1021 N m, giving a moment magnitude of Mw = 8.1. The revised tsunami source area is estimated to be 25.2 ?? 103 km2, ???3 times larger than the previous tsunami source area. Out of four large earthquakes with M ??? 7 that subsequently occurred in and around the rupture area of the 1952 event, three were at the edges of regions with relatively small amount of slip. We also found that a subducted seamount near the edge of the rupture area possibly impeded slip along the plate interface.

77 FR 11798 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Rhode Island; Regional Haze

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-28

...; and Lye Brook Wilderness Area in Vermont. Through source apportionment modeling, MANE-VU assisted... sources and activities which are located across a broad geographic area and emit fine particles and their...., sulfates, nitrates, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and soil dust), which also impair visibility by...

VALIDATION OF A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING POLLUTION EMISSION RATES FROM AREA SOURCES USING OPEN-PATH FTIR SEPCTROSCOPY AND DISPERSION MODELING TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

The paper describes a methodology developed to estimate emissions factors for a variety of different area sources in a rapid, accurate, and cost effective manner. he methodology involves using an open-path Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to measure concentrations o...

DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR REAL TIME CO CONCENTRATIONS NEAR ROADWAYS

EPA Science Inventory

Although emission standards for mobile sources continue to be tightened, tailpipe emissions in urban areas continue to be a major source of human exposure to air toxics. Current human exposure models using simplified assumptions based on fixed air monitoring stations and region...

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; Starn, J. Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Two Model-Based Methods for Policy Analyses of Fine Particulate Matter Control in China: Source Apportionment and Source Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zheng, B.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic emissions have been controlled in recent years in China to mitigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Recent studies show that sulfate dioxide (SO2)-only control cannot reduce total PM2.5 levels efficiently. Other species such as nitrogen oxide, ammonia, black carbon, and organic carbon may be equally important during particular seasons. Furthermore, each species is emitted from several anthropogenic sectors (e.g., industry, power plant, transportation, residential and agriculture). On the other hand, contribution of one emission sector to PM2.5 represents contributions of all species in this sector. In this work, two model-based methods are used to identify the most influential emission sectors and areas to PM2.5. The first method is the source apportionment (SA) based on the Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) available in the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) driven by meteorological predictions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The second method is the source sensitivity (SS) based on an adjoint integration technique (AIT) available in the GEOS-Chem model. The SA method attributes simulated PM2.5 concentrations to each emission group, while the SS method calculates their sensitivity to each emission group, accounting for the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 and its precursors. Despite their differences, the complementary nature of the two methods enables a complete analysis of source-receptor relationships to support emission control policies. Our objectives are to quantify the contributions of each emission group/area to PM2.5 in the receptor areas and to intercompare results from the two methods to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of emission sources in PM2.5 formation. The results will be compared in terms of the magnitudes and rankings of SS or SA of emitted species and emission groups/areas. GEOS-Chem with AIT is applied over East Asia at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.5° (Lat) × 0.67° (Lon). WRF/CAMx with PSAT is applied to nested grids: 36-km × 36-km over China and 12-km × 12-km over northern China. These simulations are performed for 2006 and 2011. Beijing and northern Hebei are selected as representative receptor areas. Simulated surface concentrations by both models are evaluated with available observations in China. Focusing on inorganic aerosols (sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), preliminary SS results from GEOS-Chem/AIT at Beijing identify the top three major emission sectors to be agriculture, residential, and transportation in winter and agriculture, industry and power plant in summer. The top four source areas are northern Hebei, local, Neimenggu, and Liaoning in winter and northern Hebei, local, Shandong, and southern Hebei in summer. The synthesis of SS and SA for influential emission groups or areas from this work will provide a quantitative basis for emission control strategy development and policy making for PM2.5 control in China.

Sensitivity of WRF-chem predictions to dust source function specification in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabavi, Seyed Omid; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2017-02-01

Dust storms tend to form in sparsely populated areas covered by only few observations. Dust source maps, known as source functions, are used in dust models to allocate a certain potential of dust release to each place. Recent research showed that the well known Ginoux source function (GSF), currently used in Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-chem), exhibits large errors over some regions in West Asia, particularly near the IRAQ/Syrian border. This study aims to improve the specification of this critical part of dust forecasts. A new source function based on multi-year analysis of satellite observations, called West Asia source function (WASF), is therefore proposed to raise the quality of WRF-chem predictions in the region. WASF has been implemented in three dust schemes of WRF-chem. Remotely sensed and ground-based observations have been used to verify the horizontal and vertical extent and location of simulated dust clouds. Results indicate that WRF-chem performance is significantly improved in many areas after the implementation of WASF. The modified runs (long term simulations over the summers 2008-2012, using nudging) have yielded an average increase of Spearman correlation between observed and forecast aerosol optical thickness by 12-16 percent points compared to control runs with standard source functions. They even outperform MACC and DREAM dust simulations over many dust source regions. However, the quality of the forecasts decreased with distance from sources, probably due to deficiencies in the transport and deposition characteristics of the forecast model in these areas.

Tsunami Inundation Mapping for the Upper East Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehranirad, B.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Callahan, J. A.; Shi, F.; Banihashemi, S.; Grilli, S. T.; Grilli, A. R.; Tajalli Bakhsh, T. S.; O'Reilly, C.

2014-12-01

We describe the modeling of tsunami inundation for the Upper US East Coast (USEC) from Ocean City, MD up to Nantucket, MA. and the development of inundation maps for use in emergency management and hazard analysis. Seven tsunami sources were used as initial conditions in order to develop inundation maps based on a Probable Maximum Tsunami approach. Of the seven, two coseismic sources were used; the first being a large earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench, in the well-known Caribbean Subduction Zone, and the second, an earthquake close to the Azores Gibraltar plate boundary known as the source of the biggest tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic Basin. In addition, four Submarine Mass Failure (SMF) sources located at different locations on the edge of the shelf break were simulated. Finally, the Cumbre Vieja Volcanic (CVV) collapse, located in the Canary Islands, was studied. For this presentation, we discuss modeling results for nearshore tsunami propagation and onshore inundation. A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model (FUNWAVE-TVD) is used to capture the characteristics of tsunami propagation, both nearshore and inland. In addition to the inundation line as the main result of this work, other tsunami quantities such as inundation depth and maximum velocities will be discussed for the whole USEC area. Moreover, a discussion of most vulnerable areas to a possible tsunami in the USEC will be provided. For example, during the inundation simulation process, it was observed that coastal environments with barrier islands are among the hot spots to be significantly impacted by a tsunami. As a result, areas like western Long Island, NY and Atlantic City, NJ are some of the locations that will get extremely affected in case of a tsunami occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the differences between various tsunami sources modeled here will be presented. Although inundation lines for different sources usually follow a similar pattern, there are clear distinctions between the inundation depth and other tsunami features in different areas. Figure below shows the inundation depth for surrounding area of the Ocean City, MD. Figure (a) and (b) are the envelope inundation depth for SMF and coseismic sources. Figure (C) shows the inundation depth for CVV source, which clearly has the largest magnitude amongst the sources studied for this work.

Integrated species distribution models: combining presence-background data and site-occupancy data with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koshkina, Vira; Wang, Yang; Gordon, Ascelin; Dorazio, Robert; White, Matthew; Stone, Lewi

2017-01-01

Two main sources of data for species distribution models (SDMs) are site-occupancy (SO) data from planned surveys, and presence-background (PB) data from opportunistic surveys and other sources. SO surveys give high quality data about presences and absences of the species in a particular area. However, due to their high cost, they often cover a smaller area relative to PB data, and are usually not representative of the geographic range of a species. In contrast, PB data is plentiful, covers a larger area, but is less reliable due to the lack of information on species absences, and is usually characterised by biased sampling. Here we present a new approach for species distribution modelling that integrates these two data types.We have used an inhomogeneous Poisson point process as the basis for constructing an integrated SDM that fits both PB and SO data simultaneously. It is the first implementation of an Integrated SO–PB Model which uses repeated survey occupancy data and also incorporates detection probability.The Integrated Model's performance was evaluated, using simulated data and compared to approaches using PB or SO data alone. It was found to be superior, improving the predictions of species spatial distributions, even when SO data is sparse and collected in a limited area. The Integrated Model was also found effective when environmental covariates were significantly correlated. Our method was demonstrated with real SO and PB data for the Yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) in south-eastern Australia, with the predictive performance of the Integrated Model again found to be superior.PB models are known to produce biased estimates of species occupancy or abundance. The small sample size of SO datasets often results in poor out-of-sample predictions. Integrated models combine data from these two sources, providing superior predictions of species abundance compared to using either data source alone. Unlike conventional SDMs which have restrictive scale-dependence in their predictions, our Integrated Model is based on a point process model and has no such scale-dependency. It may be used for predictions of abundance at any spatial-scale while still maintaining the underlying relationship between abundance and area.

A tuneable approach to uniform light distribution for artificial daylight photodynamic therapy.

PubMed

O'Mahoney, Paul; Haigh, Neil; Wood, Kenny; Brown, C Tom A; Ibbotson, Sally; Eadie, Ewan

2018-06-16

Implementation of daylight photodynamic therapy (dPDT) is somewhat limited by variable weather conditions. Light sources have been employed to provide artificial dPDT indoors, with low irradiances and longer treatment times. Uniform light distribution across the target area is key to ensuring effective treatment, particularly for large areas. A novel light source is developed with tuneable direction of light emission in order to meet this challenge. Wavelength composition of the novel light source is controlled such that the protoporphyrin-IX (PpIX) weighed spectra of both the light source and daylight match. The uniformity of the light source is characterised on a flat surface, a model head and a model leg. For context, a typical conventional PDT light source is also characterised. Additionally, the wavelength uniformity across the treatment site is characterised. The PpIX-weighted spectrum of the novel light source matches with PpIX-weighted daylight spectrum, with irradiance values within the bounds for effective dPDT. By tuning the direction of light emission, improvements are seen in the uniformity across large anatomical surfaces. Wavelength uniformity is discussed. We have developed a light source that addresses the challenges in uniform, multiwavelength light distribution for large area artificial dPDT across curved anatomical surfaces. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Understanding Hydrological Processes in Variable Source Areas in the Glaciated Northeastern US Watersheds under Variable Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Azzaino, Z.; Hoang, L.; Pacenka, S.; Worqlul, A. W.; Mukundan, R.; Stoof, C.; Owens, E. M.; Richards, B. K.

2017-12-01

The New York City source watersheds in the Catskill Mountains' humid, temperate climate has long-term hydrological and water quality monitoring data It is one of the few catchments where implementation of source and landscape management practices has led to decreased phosphorus concentration in the receiving surface waters. One of the reasons is that landscape measures correctly targeted the saturated variable source runoff areas (VSA) in the valley bottoms as the location where most of the runoff and other nonpoint pollutants originated. Measures targeting these areas were instrumental in lowering phosphorus concentration. Further improvements in water quality can be made based on a better understanding of the flow processes and water table fluctuations in the VSA. For that reason, we instrumented a self-contained upland variable source watershed with a landscape characteristic of a soil underlain by glacial till at shallow depth similar to the Catskill watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss our experimental findings and present a mathematical model. Variable source areas have a small slope making gravity the driving force for the flow, greatly simplifying the simulation of the flow processes. The experimental data and the model simulations agreed for both outflow and water table fluctuations. We found that while the flows to the outlet were similar throughout the year, the discharge of the VSA varies greatly. This was due to transpiration by the plants which became active when soil temperatures were above 10oC. We found that shortly after the temperature increased above 10oC the baseflow stopped and only surface runoff occurred when rainstorms exceeded the storage capacity of the soil in at least a portion of the variable source area. Since plant growth in the variable source area was a major variable determining the base flow behavior, changes in temperature in the future - affecting the duration of the growing season - will affect baseflow and related transport of nutrient and other chemicals many times more than small temperature related increases in potential evaporation rate. This in turn will directly change the water availability and pollutant transport in the many surface source watersheds with variable source area hydrology.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

2014-12-01

To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates can have a large impact on the risk profile for the area. Wellington, another area of high exposure is particularly sensitive to how the Hikurangi subduction zone and the Wellington fault are modeled. Minor changes on these sources have substantial impacts for the risk profile of the city and the country at large.

Simulating water-quality trends in public-supply wells in transient flow systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Green, Christopher T.; Hinkle, Stephen R.; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.; Stolp, Bernard J.

2014-01-01

Models need not be complex to be useful. An existing groundwater-flow model of Salt Lake Valley, Utah, was adapted for use with convolution-based advective particle tracking to explain broad spatial trends in dissolved solids. This model supports the hypothesis that water produced from wells is increasingly younger with higher proportions of surface sources as pumping changes in the basin over time. At individual wells, however, predicting specific water-quality changes remains challenging. The influence of pumping-induced transient groundwater flow on changes in mean age and source areas is significant. Mean age and source areas were mapped across the model domain to extend the results from observation wells to the entire aquifer to see where changes in concentrations of dissolved solids are expected to occur. The timing of these changes depends on accurate estimates of groundwater velocity. Calibration to tritium concentrations was used to estimate effective porosity and improve correlation between source area changes, age changes, and measured dissolved solids trends. Uncertainty in the model is due in part to spatial and temporal variations in tracer inputs, estimated tracer transport parameters, and in pumping stresses at sampling points. For tracers such as tritium, the presence of two-limbed input curves can be problematic because a single concentration can be associated with multiple disparate travel times. These shortcomings can be ameliorated by adding hydrologic and geologic detail to the model and by adding additional calibration data. However, the Salt Lake Valley model is useful even without such small-scale detail.

“A Reduced-form Model to Estimate Near-road Air Quality for Communities: the Community Line Source modeling system (C-LINE)”

EPA Science Inventory

The paper presents the Community Line Source (C-LINE) modeling system that estimates toxic air pollutant (air toxics) concentration gradients within 500 meters of busy roadways for community-sized areas on the order of 100 km2. C-LINE accesses publicly available datasets with nat...

A Workflow to Model Microbial Loadings in Watersheds ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many watershed models simulate overland and instream microbial fate and transport, but few actually provide loading rates on land surfaces and point sources to the water body network. This paper describes the underlying general equations for microbial loading rates associated with 1) land-applied manure on undeveloped areas from domestic animals; 2) direct shedding on undeveloped lands by domestic animals and wildlife; 3) urban or engineered areas; and 4) point sources that directly discharge to streams from septic systems and shedding by domestic animals. A microbial source module, which houses these formulations, is linked within a workflow containing eight models and a set of databases that form a loosely configured modeling infrastructure which supports watershed-scale microbial source-to-receptor modeling by focusing on animal-impacted catchments. A hypothetical example application – accessing, retrieving, and using real-world data – demonstrates the ability of the infrastructure to automate many of the manual steps associated with a standard watershed assessment, culminating with calibrated flow and microbial densities at the pour point of a watershed. In the Proceedings of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs), 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Toulouse, France

Integrating watershed– and farm–scale models to target critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture and the impacts of mitigating best management practices are commonly evaluated based on hydrologic boundaries using watershed models. However, management practice effectiveness is impacted by which of the feasible practices are actually selected, implemente...

Delineating floodplain and upload areas for hydrologic models: A comparison of methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes in eco-hydrological models facilitates the identification of critical source areas and the placement of management and conservation measures. Floodplains are critical landscape features that differ from neighboring up...

A Detailed Study of Debris Flow Source Areas in the Northern Colorado Front Range.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arana-Morales, A.; Baum, R. L.; Godt, J.

2014-12-01

Nearly continuous, heavy rainfall occurred during 9-13 September 2013 causing flooding and widespread landslides and debris flows in the northern Colorado Front Range. Whereas many recent studies have identified erosion as the most common process leading to debris flows in the mountains of Colorado, nearly all of the debris flows mapped in this event began as small, shallow landslides. We mapped the boundaries of 415 September 2013 debris flows in the Eldorado Springs and Boulder 7.5-minute quadrangles using 0.5-m-resolution satellite imagery. We characterized the landslide source areas of six debris flows in the field as part of an effort to identify what factors controlled their locations. Four were on a dip slope in sedimentary rocks in the Pinebrook Hills area, near Boulder, and the other two were in granitic rocks near Gross Reservoir. Although we observed no obvious geomorphic differences between the source areas and surrounding non-landslide areas, we noted several characteristics that the source areas all had in common. Slopes of the source areas ranged from 28° to 35° and most occurred on planar or slightly concave slopes that were vegetated with grass, small shrubs, and sparse trees. The source areas were shallow, irregularly shaped, and elongated downslope: widths ranged from 4 to 9 m, lengths from 6 to 40 m and depths ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 m. Colluvium was the source material for all of the debris flows and bedrock was exposed in the basal surface of all of the source areas. We observed no evidence for concentrated surface runoff upslope from the sources. Local curvature and roughness of bedrock and surface topography, and depth distribution and heterogeneity of the colluvium appear to have controlled the specific locations of these shallow debris-flow source areas. The observed distribution and characteristics of the source areas help guide ongoing efforts to model initiation of the debris flows.

Characterization of VOC sources in an urban area based on PTR-MS measurements and receptor modelling.

PubMed

Stojić, A; Stojić, S Stanišić; Šoštarić, A; Ilić, L; Mijić, Z; Rajšić, S

2015-09-01

In this study, the concentrations of volatile organic compounds were measured by the use of proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry, together with NO x , NO, NO2, SO2, CO and PM10 and meteorological parameters in an urban area of Belgrade during winter 2014. The multivariate receptor model US EPA Unmix was applied to the obtained dataset resolving six source profiles, which can be attributed to traffic-related emissions, gasoline evaporation/oil refineries, petrochemical industry/biogenic emissions, aged plumes, solid-fuel burning and local laboratories. Besides the vehicle exhaust, accounting for 27.6 % of the total mixing ratios, industrial emissions, which are present in three out of six resolved profiles, exert a significant impact on air quality in the urban area. The major contribution of regional and long-range transport was determined for source profiles associated with petrochemical industry/biogenic emissions (40 %) and gasoline evaporation/oil refineries (29 %) using trajectory sector analysis. The concentration-weighted trajectory model was applied with the aim of resolving the spatial distribution of potential distant sources, and the results indicated that emission sources from neighbouring countries, as well as from Slovakia, Greece, Poland and Scandinavian countries, significantly contribute to the observed concentrations.

Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment.

PubMed

Guo, Weijun

2017-11-01

To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dispersion modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from combustion of biomass and fossil fuels and production of coke in Tianjin, China.

PubMed

Tao, Shu; Li, Xinrong; Yang, Yu; Coveney, Raymond M; Lu, Xiaoxia; Chen, Haitao; Shen, Weiran

2006-08-01

A USEPA, procedure, ISCLT3 (Industrial Source Complex Long-Term), was applied to model the spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from various sources including coal, petroleum, natural gas, and biomass into the atmosphere of Tianjin, China. Benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq) were calculated for risk assessment. Model results were provisionally validated for concentrations and profiles based on the observed data at two monitoring stations. The dominant emission sources in the area were domestic coal combustion, coke production, and biomass burning. Mainly because of the difference in the emission heights, the contributions of various sources to the average concentrations at receptors differ from proportions emitted. The shares of domestic coal increased from approximately 43% at the sources to 56% at the receptors, while the contributions of coking industry decreased from approximately 23% at the sources to 7% at the receptors. The spatial distributions of gaseous and particulate PAHs were similar, with higher concentrations occurring within urban districts because of domestic coal combustion. With relatively smaller contributions, the other minor sources had limited influences on the overall spatial distribution. The calculated average BaPeq value in air was 2.54 +/- 2.87 ng/m3 on an annual basis. Although only 2.3% of the area in Tianjin exceeded the national standard of 10 ng/m3, 41% of the entire population lives within this area.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variations of water quality in lowland areas, Northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Q. D.; Schmalz, B.; Fohrer, N.

2012-05-01

SummaryThe pollution of rivers and streams with agro-chemical contaminants has become one of the most crucial environmental problems in the world. The assessment of spatial and temporal variations of water quality influenced by point and diffuse source pollution is necessary to manage the environment sustainably in various watershed scales. The overall objectives of this study were to assess the transferability of parameter sets between lowland catchments on different scales using the ecohydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and to evaluate the temporal and spatial patterns of water quality in the whole catchments before and after implementation of best management practices (BMPs). The study area Kielstau catchment is located in Northern Germany as typical example of lowland - flood plain landscape. Sandy, loamy and peat soils are characteristic for this area. Land use is dominated by arable land and pasture. In this study we examined two catchment areas including Kielstau catchment 50 km2 and its subcatchment, namely Moorau, with the area of 7.6 km2. The water quality of these catchments is not only influenced by diffuse sources from agricultural areas but also by point sources from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Diffuse sources as well as punctual entries from the WWTPs are considered in the model set-up. For this study, the calibration and validation of the model were carried out in a daily time step for flow and nutrients. The results indicate that the parameter sets could be transferred in lowland catchments with similar environmental conditions. Shallow groundwater is the major contributor to total nitrate load in the stream accounting for about 93% of the total nitrate load, while only about 7% originates in surface runoff and lateral flow. The study also indicates that applying a spatially distributed modeling approach was an appropriate method to generate source maps showing the spatial distribution of TN load from hydrologic response units (HRUs) as well as from subbasins and to identify the crucial pollution areas within a watershed whose management practices can be improved to control more effectively nitrogen loading to water bodies.

SOURCE WATER AREA DELINEATION OF PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY WELLS USING WHAEM2000. INTERNATIONAL GROUND WATER MODELING CENTER NEWSLETTER, V.19(1):4

EPA Science Inventory

WhAEM2000 is computer program that solves steady state ground-water flow and advective streamlines in homogeneous, single layer aquifers. The program was designed for capture zone delineation in support of protection of the source water area surrounding public water supply well...

MacBurn's cylinder test problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shestakov, Aleksei I.

2016-02-29

This note describes test problem for MacBurn which illustrates its performance. The source is centered inside a cylinder with axial-extent-to-radius ratio s.t. each end receives 1/4 of the thermal energy. The source (fireball) is modeled as either a point or as disk of finite radius, as described by Marrs et al. For the latter, the disk is divided into 13 equal area segments, each approximated as a point source and models a partially occluded fireball. If the source is modeled as a single point, one obtains very nearly the expected deposition, e.g., 1/4 of the flux on each end andmore » energy is conserved. If the source is modeled as a disk, both conservation and energy fraction degrade. However, errors decrease if the source radius to domain size ratio decreases. Modeling the source as a disk increases run-times.« less

A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment. Copyright ?? 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, David; Buckley, Robert

Here, the detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously ‘backtrack’ it to its source.

Application of a water quality model in the White Cart water catchment, Glasgow, UK.

PubMed

Liu, S; Tucker, P; Mansell, M; Hursthouse, A

2003-03-01

Water quality models of urban systems have previously focused on point source (sewerage system) inputs. Little attention has been given to diffuse inputs and research into diffuse pollution has been largely confined to agriculture sources. This paper reports on new research that is aimed at integrating diffuse inputs into an urban water quality model. An integrated model is introduced that is made up of four modules: hydrology, contaminant point sources, nutrient cycling and leaching. The hydrology module, T&T consists of a TOPMODEL (a TOPography-based hydrological MODEL), which simulates runoff from pervious areas and a two-tank model, which simulates runoff from impervious urban areas. Linked into the two-tank model, the contaminant point source module simulates the overflow from the sewerage system in heavy rain. The widely known SOILN (SOIL Nitrate model) is the basis of nitrogen cycle module. Finally, the leaching module consists of two functions: the production function and the transfer function. The production function is based on SLIM (Solute Leaching Intermediate Model) while the transfer function is based on the 'flushing hypothesis' which postulates a relationship between contaminant concentrations in the receiving water course and the extent to which the catchment is saturated. This paper outlines the modelling methodology and the model structures that have been developed. An application of this model in the White Cart catchment (Glasgow) is also included.

Maturation history modeling of Sufyan Depression, northwest Muglad Basin, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ying; Liu, Luofu; An, Fuli; Wang, Hongmei; Pang, Xiongqi

2016-08-01

The Sufyan Depression is located in the northwest of Muglad Basin and is considered as a favorable exploration area by both previous studies and present oil shows. In this study, 16 wells are used or referred, the burial history model was built with new seismic, logging and well data, and the thermal maturity (Ro, %) of proved AG source rocks was predicted based on heat flow calculation and EASY %Ro modeling. The results show that the present heat flow range is 36 mW/m2∼50 mW/m2 (average 39 mW/m2) in 13 wells and 15 mW/m2∼55 mW/m2 in the whole depression. Accordingly, the geothermal gradient is 20 °C/km∼26 °C/km and 12 °C/km∼30 °C/km, respectively. The paleo-heat flow has three peaks, namely AG-3 period, lower Bentiu period and Early Paleogene, with the value decreases from the first to the last, which is corresponding to the tectonic evolution history. Corresponding to the heat flow distribution feature, the AG source rocks become mature earlier and have higher present marurity in the south area. For AG-2_down and AG-3_up source rocks that are proved to be good-excellent, most of them are mature with Ro as 0.5%-1.1%. But they can only generate plentiful oil and gas to charge reservoirs in the middle and south areas where their Ro is within 0.7%-1.1%, which is consistent with the present oil shows. Besides, the oil shows from AG-2_down reservoir in the middle area of the Sufyan Depression are believed to be contributed by the underlying AG-3_up source rock or the source rocks in the south area.

SeaQuaKE: Sea-optimized Quantum Key Exchange

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

ONRBAA13-001). In this technical report, we describe modeling results of an entangled photon - pair source based on spontaneous four-wave mixing for...Distribution Special Notice (13-SN- 0004 under ONRBAA13-001). In this technical report, we describe modeling results of an entangled photon - pair ...areas over the last quarter include (i) development of a wavelength-dependent, entangled photon - pair source model and (ii) end-to-end system modeling

Source rock contributions to the Lower Cretaceous heavy oil accumulations in Alberta: a basin modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berbesi, Luiyin Alejandro; di Primio, Rolando; Anka, Zahie; Horsfield, Brian; Higley, Debra K.

2012-01-01

The origin of the immense oil sand deposits in Lower Cretaceous reservoirs of the Western Canada sedimentary basin is still a matter of debate, specifically with respect to the original in-place volumes and contributing source rocks. In this study, the contributions from the main source rocks were addressed using a three-dimensional petroleum system model calibrated to well data. A sensitivity analysis of source rock definition was performed in the case of the two main contributors, which are the Lower Jurassic Gordondale Member of the Fernie Group and the Upper Devonian–Lower Mississippian Exshaw Formation. This sensitivity analysis included variations of assigned total organic carbon and hydrogen index for both source intervals, and in the case of the Exshaw Formation, variations of thickness in areas beneath the Rocky Mountains were also considered. All of the modeled source rocks reached the early or main oil generation stages by 60 Ma, before the onset of the Laramide orogeny. Reconstructed oil accumulations were initially modest because of limited trapping efficiency. This was improved by defining lateral stratigraphic seals within the carrier system. An additional sealing effect by biodegraded oil may have hindered the migration of petroleum in the northern areas, but not to the east of Athabasca. In the latter case, the main trapping controls are dominantly stratigraphic and structural. Our model, based on available data, identifies the Gordondale source rock as the contributor of more than 54% of the oil in the Athabasca and Peace River accumulations, followed by minor amounts from Exshaw (15%) and other Devonian to Lower Jurassic source rocks. The proposed strong contribution of petroleum from the Exshaw Formation source rock to the Athabasca oil sands is only reproduced by assuming 25 m (82 ft) of mature Exshaw in the kitchen areas, with original total organic carbon of 9% or more.

77 FR 11974 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Iowa Regional Haze State...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-28

... and beyond. The modeling was based on PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) for the Comprehensive... sources and the State adequately determined the apportionment of those pollutants from sources located... Class I areas caused by emissions of air pollutants from numerous sources located over a wide geographic...

Application of the perfectly matched layer in 2.5D marine controlled-source electromagnetic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gang; Han, Bo

2017-09-01

For the traditional framework of EM modeling algorithms, the Dirichlet boundary is usually used which assumes the field values are zero at the boundaries. This crude condition requires that the boundaries should be sufficiently far away from the area of interest. Although cell sizes could become larger toward the boundaries as electromagnetic wave is propagated diffusively, a large modeling area may still be necessary to mitigate the boundary artifacts. In this paper, the complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer (CFS-PML) in stretching Cartesian coordinates is successfully applied to 2.5D frequency-domain marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) field modeling. By using this PML boundary, one can restrict the modeling area of interest to the target region. Only a few absorbing layers surrounding the computational area can effectively depress the artificial boundary effect without losing the numerical accuracy. A 2.5D marine CSEM modeling scheme with the CFS-PML is developed by using the staggered finite-difference discretization. This modeling algorithm using the CFS-PML is of high accuracy, and shows advantages in computational time and memory saving than that using the Dirichlet boundary. For 3D problem, this computation time and memory saving should be more significant.

Two parametric voice source models and their asymptotic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonov, A. S.; Sorokin, V. N.

2014-05-01

The paper studies the asymptotic behavior of the function for the area of the glottis near moments of its opening and closing for two mathematical voice source models. It is shown that in the first model, the asymptotics of the area function obeys a power law with an exponent of no less that 1. Detailed analysis makes it possible to refine these limits depending on the relative sizes of the intervals of a closed and open glottis. This work also studies another parametric model of the area of the glottis, which is based on a simplified physical-geometrical representation of vocal-fold vibration processes. This is a special variant of the well-known two-mass model and contains five parameters: the period of the main tone, equivalent masses on the lower and upper edge of vocal folds, the coefficient of elastic resistance of the lower vocal fold, and the delay time between openings of the upper and lower folds. It is established that the asymptotics of the obtained function for the area of the glottis obey a power law with an exponent of 1 both for opening and closing.

Applicability of land use models for the Houston area test site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersburg, R. K.; Bradford, L. H.

1973-01-01

Descriptions of land use models are presented which were considered for their applicability to the Houston Area Test Site. These models are representative both of the prevailing theories of land use dynamics and of basic approaches to simulation. The models considered are: a model of metropolis, land use simulation model, emperic land use forecasting model, a probabilistic model for residential growth, and the regional environmental management allocation process. Sources of environmental/resource information are listed.

Recent Approaches to Modeling Transport of Mercury in Surface Water and Groundwater - Case Study in Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge, TN - 13349

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bostick, Kent; Daniel, Anamary; Tachiev, Georgio

2013-07-01

In this case study, groundwater/surface water modeling was used to determine efficacy of stabilization in place with hydrologic isolation for remediation of mercury contaminated areas in the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek (UEFPC) Watershed in Oak Ridge, TN. The modeling simulates the potential for mercury in soil to contaminate groundwater above industrial use risk standards and to contribute to surface water contamination. The modeling approach is unique in that it couples watershed hydrology with the total mercury transport and provides a tool for analysis of changes in mercury load related to daily precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from storms. The modelmore » also allows for simulation of colloidal transport of total mercury in surface water. Previous models for the watershed only simulated average yearly conditions and dissolved concentrations that are not sufficient for predicting mercury flux under variable flow conditions that control colloidal transport of mercury in the watershed. The transport of mercury from groundwater to surface water from mercury sources identified from information in the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System was simulated using a watershed scale model calibrated to match observed daily creek flow, total suspended solids and mercury fluxes. Mercury sources at the former Building 81-10 area, where mercury was previously retorted, were modeled using a telescopic refined mesh with boundary conditions extracted from the watershed model. Modeling on a watershed scale indicated that only source excavation for soils/sediment in the vicinity of UEFPC had any effect on mercury flux in surface water. The simulations showed that colloidal transport contributed 85 percent of the total mercury flux leaving the UEFPC watershed under high flow conditions. Simulation of dissolved mercury transport from liquid elemental mercury and adsorbed sources in soil at former Building 81-10 indicated that dissolved concentrations are orders of magnitude below a target industrial groundwater concentration beneath the source and would not influence concentrations in surface water at Station 17. This analysis addressed only shallow concentrations in soil and the shallow groundwater flow path in soil and unconsolidated sediments to UEFPC. Other mercury sources may occur in bedrock and transport though bedrock to UEFPC may contribute to the mercury flux at Station 17. Generally mercury in the source areas adjacent to the stream and in sediment that is eroding can contribute to the flux of mercury in surface water. Because colloidally adsorbed mercury can be transported in surface water, actions that trap colloids and or hydrologically isolate surface water runoff from source areas would reduce the flux of mercury in surface water. Mercury in soil is highly adsorbed and transport in the groundwater system is very limited under porous media conditions. (authors)« less

The effect of nitrogen loading on on-site system design: a model for determining land application area size.

PubMed

McCardell, A; Davison, L; Edwards, A

2005-01-01

Designers of on-site wastewater management systems have six opportunities to remove pollutants of concern from the aqueous waste stream before it reaches ground or surface waters. These opportunities occur at source, at point of collection (primary treatment), secondary treatment, tertiary treatment, land application and buffers. This paper presents a computer based model for the sizing of on-site system land application areas applicable to the Lismore area in Northern New South Wales, a region of high rainfall. Inputs to the model include daily climatic data, soil type, number of people loading the system and size of housing allotment. Constraints include allowable phosphorus export, nitrogen export and hydraulic percolation. In the Lismore area nitrogen is the nutrient of most concern. In areas close to environmentally sensitive waterways, and in dense developments, the allowable annual nitrogen export becomes the main factor determining the land application area size. The model offers system designers the opportunity to test various combinations of nitrogen attenuation strategies (source control, secondary treatment) in order to create a solution which offers an acceptable nitrogen export rate while meeting the client's household and financial needs. The model runs on an Excel spreadsheet and has been developed by Lismore City Council.

Investigating Causality Between Interacting Brain Areas with Multivariate Autoregressive Models of MEG Sensor Data

PubMed Central

Michalareas, George; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Paterson, Gavin; Gross, Joachim

2013-01-01

Abstract In this work, we investigate the feasibility to estimating causal interactions between brain regions based on multivariate autoregressive models (MAR models) fitted to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) sensor measurements. We first demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of estimating source level causal interactions after projection of the sensor-level model coefficients onto the locations of the neural sources. Next, we show with simulated MEG data that causality, as measured by partial directed coherence (PDC), can be correctly reconstructed if the locations of the interacting brain areas are known. We further demonstrate, if a very large number of brain voxels is considered as potential activation sources, that PDC as a measure to reconstruct causal interactions is less accurate. In such case the MAR model coefficients alone contain meaningful causality information. The proposed method overcomes the problems of model nonrobustness and large computation times encountered during causality analysis by existing methods. These methods first project MEG sensor time-series onto a large number of brain locations after which the MAR model is built on this large number of source-level time-series. Instead, through this work, we demonstrate that by building the MAR model on the sensor-level and then projecting only the MAR coefficients in source space, the true casual pathways are recovered even when a very large number of locations are considered as sources. The main contribution of this work is that by this methodology entire brain causality maps can be efficiently derived without any a priori selection of regions of interest. Hum Brain Mapp, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:22328419

Fermi Large Area Telescope third source catalog

DOE PAGES

Acero, F.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; ...

2015-06-12

Here, we present the third Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) source catalog (3FGL) of sources in the 100 MeV–300 GeV range. Based on the first 4 yr of science data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope mission, it is the deepest yet in this energy range. Relative to the Second Fermi LAT catalog, the 3FGL catalog incorporates twice as much data, as well as a number of analysis improvements, including improved calibrations at the event reconstruction level, an updated model for Galactic diffuse γ-ray emission, a refined procedure for source detection, and improved methods for associating LAT sources with potential counterparts at other wavelengths. The 3FGL catalog includes 3033 sources abovemore » $$4\\sigma $$ significance, with source location regions, spectral properties, and monthly light curves for each. Of these, 78 are flagged as potentially being due to imperfections in the model for Galactic diffuse emission. Twenty-five sources are modeled explicitly as spatially extended, and overall 238 sources are considered as identified based on angular extent or correlated variability (periodic or otherwise) observed at other wavelengths. For 1010 sources we have not found plausible counterparts at other wavelengths. More than 1100 of the identified or associated sources are active galaxies of the blazar class; several other classes of non-blazar active galaxies are also represented in the 3FGL. Pulsars represent the largest Galactic source class. As a result, from source counts of Galactic sources we estimate that the contribution of unresolved sources to the Galactic diffuse emission is ~3% at 1 GeV.« less

Copper content in lake sediments as a tracer of urban emissions: evaluation through a source-transport-storage model.

PubMed

Cui, Qing; Brandt, Nils; Sinha, Rajib; Malmström, Maria E

2010-06-01

A coupled source-transport-storage model was developed to determine the origin and path of copper from materials/goods in use in the urban drainage area and the fate of copper in local recipient lakes. The model was applied and tested using five small lakes in Stockholm, Sweden. In the case of the polluted lakes Råcksta Träsk, Trekanten and Långsjön, the source strengths of copper identified by the model were found to be well linked with independently observed copper contents in the lake sediments through the model. The model results also showed that traffic emissions, especially from brake linings, dominated the total load in all five cases. Sequential sedimentation and burial proved to be the most important fate processes of copper in all lakes, except Råcksta Träsk, where outflow dominated. The model indicated that the sediment copper content can be used as a tracer of the urban diffuse copper source strength, but that the response to changes in source strength is fairly slow (decades). Major uncertainties in the source model were related to management of stormwater in the urban area, the rate of wear of brake linings and weathering of copper roofs. The uncertainty of the coupled model is in addition affected mainly by parameters quantifying the sedimentation and bury processes, such as particulate fraction, settling velocity of particles, and sedimentation rate. As a demonstration example, we used the model to predict the response of the sediment copper level to a decrease in the copper load from the urban catchment in one of the case study lakes. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strong Ground Motion Prediction By Composite Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Irikura, K.; Zahradnik, J.

2003-12-01

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a possible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock). The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled either as a finite or point source, differences between these choices are shown. The final slip and duration of each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Absolute value of subevents' stress drop is free parameter. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally layered crustal model. An estimation of subevents' stress drop is based on fitting empirical attenuation relations for PGA and PGV, as they represent robust information on strong ground motion caused by earthquakes, including both path and source effect. We use the 2000 M6.6 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake as validation event, providing comparison between predicted and observed waveforms.

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalog

DOE PAGES

Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; ...

2010-05-25

Here, we present a catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), during the first 11 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. The First Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL) contains 1451 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. Source detection was based on the average flux over the 11 month period, and the threshold likelihood Test Statistic is 25, corresponding to a significance of just over 4σ. The 1FGL catalog includes source location regions,more » defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and power-law spectral fits as well as flux measurements in five energy bands for each source. In addition, monthly light curves are provided. Using a protocol defined before launch we have tested for several populations of gamma-ray sources among the sources in the catalog. For individual LAT-detected sources we provide firm identifications or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. Identifications are based on correlated variability with counterparts at other wavelengths, or on spin or orbital periodicity. For the catalogs and association criteria that we have selected, 630 of the sources are unassociated. In conclusion, care was taken to characterize the sensitivity of the results to the model of interstellar diffuse gamma-ray emission used to model the bright foreground, with the result that 161 sources at low Galactic latitudes and toward bright local interstellar clouds are flagged as having properties that are strongly dependent on the model or as potentially being due to incorrectly modeled structure in the Galactic diffuse emission.« less

Fermi Large Area Telescope Second Source Catalog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolan, P. L.; Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M; Allafort, A.; Antolini, E; Bonnell, J.; Cannon, A.; Celik O.; Corbet, R.;

Using Model Comparisons to Understand Sources of Nitrogen Delivered to US Coastal Areas

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen loading to water bodies can result in eutrophication-related hypoxia and degraded water quality. The relative contributions of different anthropogenic and natural sources of in-stream N cannot be directly measured at whole-watershed scales; hence, N source attribution e...

A modified receptor model for source apportionment of heavy metal pollution in soil.

PubMed

Huang, Ying; Deng, Meihua; Wu, Shaofu; Japenga, Jan; Li, Tingqiang; Yang, Xiaoe; He, Zhenli

2018-07-15

Source apportionment is a crucial step toward reduction of heavy metal pollution in soil. Existing methods are generally based on receptor models. However, overestimation or underestimation occurs when they are applied to heavy metal source apportionment in soil. Therefore, a modified model (PCA-MLRD) was developed, which is based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression with distance (MLRD). This model was applied to a case study conducted in a peri-urban area in southeast China where soils were contaminated by arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb). Compared with existing models, PCA-MLRD is able to identify specific sources and quantify the extent of influence for each emission. The zinc (Zn)-Pb mine was identified as the most important anthropogenic emission, which affected approximately half area for Pb and As accumulation, and approximately one third for Cd. Overall, the influence extent of the anthropogenic emissions decreased in the order of mine (3 km) > dyeing mill (2 km) ≈ industrial hub (2 km) > fluorescent factory (1.5 km) > road (0.5 km). Although algorithm still needs to improved, the PCA-MLRD model has the potential to become a useful tool for heavy metal source apportionment in soil. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Maximum Tsunami Inundation Maps for Use by Local Emergency Planners in the State of California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Miller, K. M.; Goltz, J. D.; Synolakis, C. E.

2008-12-01

A consortium of tsunami hydrodynamic modelers, geologic hazard mapping specialists, and emergency planning managers is producing maximum tsunami inundation maps for California, covering most residential and transient populated areas along the state's coastline. The new tsunami inundation maps will be an upgrade from the existing maps for the state, improving on the resolution, accuracy, and coverage of the maximum anticipated tsunami inundation line. Thirty-five separate map areas covering nearly one-half of California's coastline were selected for tsunami modeling using the MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model. From preliminary evaluations of nearly fifty local and distant tsunami source scenarios, those with the maximum expected hazard for a particular area were input to MOST. The MOST model was run with a near-shore bathymetric grid resolution varying from three arc-seconds (90m) to one arc-second (30m), depending on availability. Maximum tsunami "flow depth" and inundation layers were created by combining all modeled scenarios for each area. A method was developed to better define the location of the maximum inland penetration line using higher resolution digital onshore topographic data from interferometric radar sources. The final inundation line for each map area was validated using a combination of digital stereo photography and fieldwork. Further verification of the final inundation line will include ongoing evaluation of tsunami sources (seismic and submarine landslide) as well as comparison to the location of recorded paleotsunami deposits. Local governmental agencies can use these new maximum tsunami inundation lines to assist in the development of their evacuation routes and emergency response plans.

NO2 and SO2 dispersion modeling and relative roles of emission sources over Map Ta Phut industrial area, Thailand.

PubMed

Chusai, Chatinai; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Saiyasitpanich, Phirun; Thepanondh, Sarawut

2012-08-01

Map Ta Phut industrial area (MA) is the largest industrial complex in Thailand. There has been concern about many air pollutants over this area. Air quality management for the area is known to be difficult, due to lack of understanding of how emissions from different sources or sectors (e.g., industrial, power plant, transportation, and residential) contribute to air quality degradation in the area. In this study, a dispersion study of NO2 and SO2 was conducted using the AERMOD model. The area-specific emission inventories of NOx and SO2 were prepared, including both stack and nonstack sources, and divided into 11 emission groups. Annual simulations were performed for the year 2006. Modeled concentrations were evaluated with observations. Underestimation of both pollutants was Jbund, and stack emission estimates were scaled to improve the modeled results before quantifying relative roles of individual emission groups to ambient concentration overfour selected impacted areas (two are residential and the others are highly industrialized). Two concentration measures (i.e., annual average area-wide concentration or AC, and area-wide robust highest concentration or AR) were used to aggregately represent mean and high-end concentrations Jbfor each individual area, respectively. For AC-NO2, on-road mobile emissions were found to be the largest contributor in the two residential areas (36-38% of total AC-NO2), while petrochemical-industry emissions play the most important role in the two industrialized areas (34-51%). For AR-NO2, biomass burning has the most influence in all impacted areas (>90%) exceptJor one residential area where on-road mobile is the largest (75%). For AC-SO2, the petrochemical industry contributes most in all impacted areas (38-56%). For AR-SO2, the results vary. Since the petrochemical industry was often identified as the major contributor despite not being the largest emitter, air quality workers should pay special attention to this emission group when managing air quality for the MA.

NO2 and SO2dispersion modeling and relative roles of emission sources over Map Ta Phut industrial area, Thailand.

PubMed

Chusai, Chatinai; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Saiyasitpanich, Phirun; Thepanondh, Sarawut

2012-08-01

Map Ta Phut industrial area (MA) is the largest industrial complex in Thailand. There has been concern about many air pollutants over this area. Air quality management for the area is known to be difficult, due to lack of understanding of how emissions from different sources or sectors (e.g., industrial, power plant, transportation, and residential) contribute to air quality degradation in the area. In this study, a dispersion study of NO 2 and SO 2 was conducted using the AERMOD model. The area-specific emission inventories of NO x and SO 2 were prepared, including both stack and nonstack sources, and divided into 11 emission groups. Annual simulations were performed for the year 2006. Modeled concentrations were evaluated with observations. Underestimation of both pollutants was found, and stack emission estimates were scaled to improve the modeled results before quantifying relative roles of individual emission groups to ambient concentration over four selected impacted areas (two are residential and the others are highly industrialized). Two concentration measures (i.e., annual average area-wide concentration or AC, and area-wide robust highest concentration or AR) were used to aggregately represent mean and high-end concentrations for each individual area, respectively. For AC-NO 2 , on-road mobile emissions were found to be the largest contributor in the two residential areas (36-38% of total AC-NO 2 ), while petrochemical-industry emissions play the most important role in the two industrialized areas (34-51%). For AR-NO 2 , biomass burning has the most influence in all impacted areas (>90%) except for one residential area where on-road mobile is the largest (75%). For AC-SO 2 , the petrochemical industry contributes most in all impacted areas (38-56%). For AR-SO 2 , the results vary. Since the petrochemical industry was often identified as the major contributor despite not being the largest emitter, air quality workers should pay special attention to this emission group when managing air quality for the MA. [Box: see text] [Box: see text].

A framework for emissions source apportionment in industrial areas: MM5/CALPUFF in a near-field application.

PubMed

Ghannam, K; El-Fadel, M

2013-02-01

This paper examines the relative source contribution to ground-level concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 microm) in a coastal urban area due to emissions from an industrial complex with multiple stacks, quarrying activities, and a nearby highway. For this purpose, an inventory of CO, oxide of nitrogen (NO(x)), and PM10 emissions was coupled with the non-steady-state Mesoscale Model 5/California Puff Dispersion Modeling system to simulate individual source contributions under several spatial and temporal scales. As the contribution of a particular source to ground-level concentrations can be evaluated by simulating this single-source emissions or otherwise total emissions except that source, a set of emission sensitivity simulations was designed to examine if CALPUFF maintains a linear relationship between emission rates and predicted concentrations in cases where emitted plumes overlap and chemical transformations are simulated. Source apportionment revealed that ground-level releases (i.e., highway and quarries) extended over large areas dominated the contribution to exposure levels over elevated point sources, despite the fact that cumulative emissions from point sources are higher. Sensitivity analysis indicated that chemical transformations of NO(x) are insignificant, possibly due to short-range plume transport, with CALPUFF exhibiting a linear response to changes in emission rate. The current paper points to the significance of ground-level emissions in contributing to urban air pollution exposure and questions the viability of the prevailing paradigm of point-source emission reduction, especially that the incremental improvement in air quality associated with this common abatement strategy may not accomplish the desirable benefit in terms of lower exposure with costly emissions capping. The application of atmospheric dispersion models for source apportionment helps in identifying major contributors to regional air pollution. In industrial urban areas where multiple sources with different geometry contribute to emissions, ground-level releases extended over large areas such as roads and quarries often dominate the contribution to ground-level air pollution. Industrial emissions released at elevated stack heights may experience significant dilution, resulting in minor contribution to exposure at ground level. In such contexts, emission reduction, which is invariably the abatement strategy targeting industries at a significant investment in control equipment or process change, may result in minimal return on investment in terms of improvement in air quality at sensitive receptors.

Challenges in Modeling Debris-Flow Initiation during the Exceptional September 2013 Northern Colorado Front Range Rainstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Godt, J.; Kean, J. W.

2014-12-01

Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Eye-witness accounts and fire-department records put the times of greatest landslide activity during the times of heaviest rainfall on September 12 - 13. Antecedent soil moisture was relatively low, particularly at elevations below 2250 m where many of the debris flows occurred, based on 45 - 125 mm of summer precipitation and absence of rainfall for about 2 weeks before the storm. Mapping from post-event imagery and field observations indicated that most debris flows initiated as small, shallow landslides. These landslides typically formed in colluvium that consisted of angular clasts in a sandy or silty matrix, depending on the nature of the parent bedrock. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m, and source areas commonly occupied less than 500 m2. Although 49% of the source areas occurred in swales and 3 % in channels, where convergent flow might have contributed to pore-pressure build up during the rainfall, 48% of the source areas occurred on open slopes. Upslope contributing areas of most landslides (58%) were small (< 1000 m2) and 78% of the slides occurred on south-facing slopes (90°≤ aspect ≤270°). These observations pose challenges for modeling initiation of the debris flows. Effects of variable soil depth and properties, vegetation, and rainfall must be examined to explain the dominance of debris flows on south-facing slopes. Accounting for the small sizes and mixed swale and open-slope settings of source areas demands new approaches for resolving soil-depth and physical-properties variability. The low-moisture initial conditions require consideration of unsaturated zone effects. Ongoing fieldwork and computational modeling are aimed at addressing these challenges related to initiation of the September 2013 debris flows.

Source Region Modeling of Explosions 2 and 3 from the Source Physics Experiment Using the Rayleigh Integral Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. R.; Arrowsmith, S.; Whitaker, R. W.

2012-12-01

The overall mission of the National Center for Nuclear Security (NCNS) Source Physics Experiment at the National Nuclear Security Site (SPE-N) near Las Vegas, Nevada is to improve upon and develop new physics based models for underground nuclear explosions using scaled, underground chemical explosions as proxies. To this end, we use the Rayleigh integral as an approximation to the Helmholz-Kirchoff integral, [Whitaker, 2007 and Arrowsmith et al., 2011], to model infrasound generation in the far-field. Infrasound generated by single-point explosive sources above ground can typically be treated as monopole point-sources. While the source is relatively simple, the research needed to model above ground point-sources is complicated by path effects related to the propagation of the acoustic signal and out of the scope of this study. In contrast, for explosions that occur below ground, including the SPE explosions, the source region is more complicated but the observation distances are much closer (< 5 km), thus greatly reducing the complication of path effects. In this case, elastic energy from the explosions radiates upward and spreads out, depending on depth, to a more distributed region at the surface. Due to this broad surface perturbation of the atmosphere we cannot model the source as a simple monopole point-source. Instead, we use the analogy of a piston mounted in a rigid, infinite baffle, where the surface area that moves as a result of the explosion is the piston and the surrounding region is the baffle. The area of the "piston" is determined by the depth and explosive yield of the event. In this study we look at data from SPE-N-2 and SPE-N-3. Both shots had an explosive yield of 1 ton at a depth of 45 m. We collected infrasound data with up to eight stations and 32 sensors within a 5 km radius of ground zero. To determine the area of the surface acceleration, we used data from twelve surface accelerometers installed within 100 m radially about ground zero. With the accelerometer data defining the vertical motion of the surface, we use the Rayleigh Integral Method, [Whitaker, 2007 and Arrowsmith et al., 2011], to generate a synthetic infrasound pulse to compare to the observed data. Because the phase across the "piston" is not necessarily uniform, constructive and destructive interference will change the shape of the acoustic pulse if observed directly above the source (on-axis) or perpendicular to the source (off-axis). Comparing the observed data to the synthetic data we note that the overall structure of the pulse agrees well and that the differences can be attributed to a number of possibilities, including the sensors used, topography, meteorological conditions, etc. One other potential source of error between the observed and calculated data is that we use a flat, symmetric source region for the "piston" where in reality the source region is not flat and not perfectly symmetric. A primary goal of this work is to better understand and model the relationships between surface area, depth, and yield of underground explosions.

Fault- and Area-Based PSHA in Nepal using OpenQuake: New Insights from the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Victoria

2017-04-01

The 2015 Gorkha-Nepal M7.8 earthquake (hereafter known simply as the Gorkha earthquake) highlights the seismic risk in Nepal, allows better characterization of the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), and enables comparison of recorded ground-motions with predicted ground-motions. These new data, together with recent paleoseismic studies and geodetic-based coupling models, allow for good parameterization of the fault characteristics. Other faults in Nepal remain less well studied. Unlike previous PSHA studies in Nepal that are exclusively area-based, we use a mix of faults and areas to describe six seismic sources in Nepal. For each source, the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values are found, and the maximum magnitude earthquake estimated, using a combination of earthquake catalogs, moment conservation principals and similarities to other tectonic regions. The MHT and Karakoram fault are described as fault sources, whereas four other sources - normal faulting in N-S trending grabens of northern Nepal, strike-slip faulting in both eastern and western Nepal, and background seismicity - are described as area sources. We use OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/) to carry out the analysis, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 2 and 10% chance in 50 years is found for Nepal, along with hazard curves at various locations. We compare this PSHA model with previous area-based models of Nepal. The Main Himalayan Thrust is the principal seismic hazard in Nepal so we study the effects of changing several parameters associated with this fault. We compare ground shaking predicted from various fault geometries suggested from the Gorkha earthquake with each other, and with a simple model of a flat fault. We also show the results from incorporating a coupling model based on geodetic data and microseismicity, which limits the down-dip extent of rupture. There have been no ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed specifically for Nepal, so we compare the results of standard GMPEs used together with an earthquake-scenario representing that of the Gorkha earthquake, with actual data from the Gorkha earthquake itself. The Gorkha earthquake also highlighted the importance of basin-, topographic- and directivity-effects, and the location of high-frequency sources, on influencing ground motion. Future study aims at incorporating the above, together with consideration of the fault-rupture history and its influence on the location and timing of future earthquakes.

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

Bayesian source term estimation of atmospheric releases in urban areas using LES approach.

PubMed

Xue, Fei; Kikumoto, Hideki; Li, Xiaofeng; Ooka, Ryozo

2018-05-05

The estimation of source information from limited measurements of a sensor network is a challenging inverse problem, which can be viewed as an assimilation process of the observed concentration data and the predicted concentration data. When dealing with releases in built-up areas, the predicted data are generally obtained by the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, which yields building-resolving results; however, RANS-based models are outperformed by large-eddy simulation (LES) in the predictions of both airflow and dispersion. Therefore, it is important to explore the possibility of improving the estimation of the source parameters by using the LES approach. In this paper, a novel source term estimation method is proposed based on LES approach using Bayesian inference. The source-receptor relationship is obtained by solving the adjoint equations constructed using the time-averaged flow field simulated by the LES approach based on the gradient diffusion hypothesis. A wind tunnel experiment with a constant point source downwind of a single building model is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, which is compared with that of the existing method using a RANS model. The results show that the proposed method reduces the errors of source location and releasing strength by 77% and 28%, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of well vulnerability for groundwater source protection based on a solute transport model: a case study from Jilin City, northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Lai, Desheng; Teng, Yanguo; Zhai, Yuanzheng

2015-05-01

Well vulnerability assessment is essential for groundwater source protection. A quantitative approach to assess well vulnerability in a well capture zone is presented, based on forward solute transport modeling. This method was applied to three groundwater source areas (Jiuzhan, Hadawan and Songyuanhada) in Jilin City, northeast China. The ratio of the maximum contaminant concentration at the well to the released concentration at the contamination source ( c max/ c 0) was determined as the well vulnerability indicator. The results indicated that well vulnerability was higher close to the pumping well. The well vulnerability in each groundwater source area was low. Compared with the other two source areas, the cone of depression at Jiuzhan resulted in higher spatial variability of c max/ c 0 and lower minimum c max/ c 0 by three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis indicated that the denitrification rate in the aquifer was the most sensitive with respect to well vulnerability. A process to derive a NO3-N concentration at the pumping well is presented, based on determining the maximum nitrate loading limit to satisfy China's drinking-water quality standards. Finally, the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for improving the precision of this well vulnerability assessment approach are discussed.

1-D/3-D geologic model of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, D.K.; Henry, M.; Roberts, L.N.R.; Steinshouer, D.W.

2005-01-01

The 3-D geologic model of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin comprises 18 stacked intervals from the base of the Devonian Woodbend Group and age equivalent formations to ground surface; it includes an estimated thickness of eroded sediments based on 1-D burial history reconstructions for 33 wells across the study area. Each interval for the construction of the 3-D model was chosen on the basis of whether it is primarily composed of petroleum system elements of reservoir, hydrocarbon source, seal, overburden, or underburden strata, as well as the quality and areal distribution of well and other data. Preliminary results of the modeling support the following interpretations. Long-distance migration of hydrocarbons east of the Rocky Mountains is indicated by oil and gas accumulations in areas within which source rocks are thermally immature for oil and (or) gas. Petroleum systems in the basin are segmented by the northeast-trending Sweetgrass Arch; hydrocarbons west of the arch were from source rocks lying near or beneath the Rocky Mountains, whereas oil and gas east of the arch were sourced from the Williston Basin. Hydrocarbon generation and migration are primarily due to increased burial associated with the Laramide Orogeny. Hydrocarbon sources and migration were also influenced by the Lower Cretaceous sub-Mannville unconformity. In the Peace River Arch area of northern Alberta, Jurassic and older formations exhibit high-angle truncations against the unconformity. Potential Paleozoic though Mesozoic hydrocarbon source rocks are in contact with overlying Mannville Group reservoir facies. In contrast, in Saskatchewan and southern Alberta the contacts are parallel to sub-parallel, with the result that hydrocarbon source rocks are separated from the Mannville Group by seal-forming strata within the Jurassic. Vertical and lateral movement of hydrocarbons along the faults in the Rocky Mountains deformed belt probably also resulted in mixing of oil and gas from numerous source rocks in Alberta.

Development, Evaluation, and Application of a Primary Aerosol Model.

PubMed

Wang, I T; Chico, T; Huang, Y H; Farber, R J

1999-09-01

The Segmented-Plume Primary Aerosol Model (SPPAM) has been developed over the past several years. The earlier model development goals were simply to generalize the widely used Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCST) model to simulate plume transport and dispersion under light wind conditions and to handle a large number of roadway or line sources. The goals have been expanded to include development of improved algorithm for effective plume transport velocity, more accurate and efficient line and area source dispersion algorithms, and recently, a more realistic and computationally efficient algorithm for plume depletion due to particle dry deposition. A performance evaluation of the SPPAM has been carried out using the 1983 PNL dual tracer experimental data. The results show the model predictions to be in good agreement with observations in both plume advection-dispersion and particulate matter (PM) depletion by dry deposition. For PM 2.5 impact analysis, the SPPAM has been applied to the Rubidoux area of California. Emission sources included in the modeling analysis are: paved road dust, diesel vehicular exhaust, gasoline vehicular exhaust, and tire wear particles from a large number of roadways in Rubidoux and surrounding areas. For the selected modeling periods, the predicted primary PM 2.5 to primary PM10 concentration ratios for the Rubidoux sampling station are in the range of 0.39-0.46. The organic fractions of the primary PM 2.5 impacts are estimated to be at least 34-41%. Detailed modeling results indicate that the relatively high organic fractions are primarily due to the proximity of heavily traveled roadways north of the sampling station. The predictions are influenced by a number of factors; principal among them are the receptor locations relative to major roadways, the volume and composition of traffic on these roadways, and the prevailing meteorological conditions.

Wind-tunnel Modelling of Dispersion from a Scalar Area Source in Urban-Like Roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascheke, Frauke; Barlow, Janet F.; Robins, Alan

2008-01-01

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T / U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness.

Understanding Biogenic and Anthropogenic Trace Gas Variations Measured Near Cool, CA in June 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, B. Z.; Flowers, B. A.; Gorkowski, K.; Dubey, M. K.; Knighton, W. B.; Floerchinger, C.; Herndon, S. C.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.

2011-12-01

Trace gas signatures produced by forested and urban areas differ greatly. Forested areas are dominated by gases produced during photosynthesis and respiration: CO2 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) including terpenes and isoprene. Urban areas are heavily influenced by vehicle exhaust emissions and have elevated levels of CO, NOx and aromatic hydrocarbons such as benzene. Ozone is produced as a byproduct of both of these sources; it is produced when NOx from urban areas reacts with either anthropogenic or biogenic hydrocarbons. The Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) campaign was conducted during June 2010, in part to observe the evolution of urban air masses as they mix into rural locations and to better understand anthropogenic-biogenic photochemical interactions. The campaign included two ground-based sampling sites, one in Sacramento, CA (T0) and one downwind, approximately 70km NE, rurally located near Cool, CA (T1). In situ measurements of CO2, CO, O3, NO and multiple different VOCs were performed at the T1 site during the study, and are analyzed here to gain insights into the chemistry and transport of these trace gases. Comparisons between these trace gases coupled with transport modeling is used to delineate biogenic and anthropogenic sources. Additionally, comparisons between trace gases produced predominately by biogenic sources provide valuable information on how meteorology affects their production. Two atmospheric models (HYSPLIT back-trajectories and WRF forecasts) are used to predict transport episodes, where polluted air masses from the Sacramento or more distant San Francisco areas are transported to Cool. The two models display significant overlap for eleven different transport episodes during the study period. Both models also agree on two transport-free multiple-day periods. By examining the periods during which the models are in agreement, we are able to characterize with high certainty the trace gas signatures of local biogenic sources and also the significance of short-range transported anthropogenic trace gases.

Transport pathway and source area for Artemisia pollen in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Xiaoxin; Li, Yiyin; Sun, Xu; Meng, Ling; Wang, Xiaoke

2017-12-01

Artemisia pollen is an important allergen responsible for allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China. To explore the transport pathways and source areas of Artemisia pollen, we used Burkard 7-day traps to monitor daily pollen concentrations in 2016 in an urban and suburban locality. Backward trajectories of 24- and 96-h and their cluster analysis were performed to identify transport pathways of Artemisia pollen using the HYSPLIT model on 0.5° × 0.5° GADS meteorological data. The potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) were calculated to further identify the major potential source areas at local, regional, and long-range scales. Our results showed significant differences in Artemisia pollen concentration between urban and suburban areas, attributed to differences in plant distribution and altitude of the sampling locality. Such differences arisen from both pollen emission and air mass movements, hence pollen dispersal. At local or regional scales, source area of northwestern parts of Beijing City, Hebei Province and northern and northwestern parts of Inner Mongolia influenced the major transport pathways of Artemisia pollen. Transport pathway at a long-range scale and its corresponding source area extended to northwestern parts of Mongolia. The regional-scale transport affected by wind and altitude is more profound for Artemisia pollen at the suburban than at the urban station.

Groundwater Fate and Transport Modeling for Texarkana Wood Preserving Company Superfund Site, Texarkana, Texas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arnett, Ronald Chester

Fate and transport model results are presented for the Texarkana Wood Preserving Company (TWPC)superfund site. The conceptual model assumes two sources of contamination, specifically, the areas around the old and new process areas. Recent data show the presence of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPL) in the aquifer that are also sources of dissolved contamination in the aquifer. A flow model was constructed and calibrated against measured hydraulic heads at permanent monitoring wells. Good matches were obtained between model simulated heads and most measured heads. An unexplained exception occurs at monitoring well MW-13 down gradient of the site beyond the measured contaminantmore » plume where the model predicts heads that are more than 2 ft. lower than reported field measurements. Adjusting hydraulic parameters in the model could not account for this anomaly and still preserve the head matches at other wells. There is likely a moderate deficiency in the conceptual model or perhaps a data error. Other information such as substantial amounts of infiltrating surface water in the area or a correction in surveyed elevation would improve the flow model. A particle tracking model calculated a travel time from the new process area to the Day’s Creek discharge location on the order of 40 years. Travel times from the old process area to Day’s Creek were calculated to be on the order of 80 years. While these calculations are subject to some uncertainty, travel times of decades are indicated.« less

Phenomenological Modeling of Infrared Sources: Recent Advances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leung, Chun Ming; Kwok, Sun (Editor)

1993-01-01

Infrared observations from planned space facilities (e.g., ISO (Infrared Space Observatory), SIRTF (Space Infrared Telescope Facility)) will yield a large and uniform sample of high-quality data from both photometric and spectroscopic measurements. To maximize the scientific returns of these space missions, complementary theoretical studies must be undertaken to interpret these observations. A crucial step in such studies is the construction of phenomenological models in which we parameterize the observed radiation characteristics in terms of the physical source properties. In the last decade, models with increasing degree of physical realism (in terms of grain properties, physical processes, and source geometry) have been constructed for infrared sources. Here we review current capabilities available in the phenomenological modeling of infrared sources and discuss briefly directions for future research in this area.

Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

2013-07-15

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has spent several years researching, developing, and validating large Bayesian network models to support integration of open source data sets for nuclear proliferation research. Our current work focuses on generating a set of interrelated models for multi-source assessment of nuclear programs, as opposed to a single comprehensive model. By using this approach, we can break down the models to cover logical sub-problems that can utilize different expertise and data sources. This approach allows researchers to utilize the models individually or in combination to detect and characterize a nuclear program and identify data gaps. The models operatemore » at various levels of granularity, covering a combination of state-level assessments with more detailed models of site or facility characteristics. This paper will describe the current open source-driven, nuclear nonproliferation models under development, the pros and cons of the analytical approach, and areas for additional research.« less

Improved quantification of CO2 emission at Campi Flegrei by combined Lagrangian Stochastic and Eulerian dispersion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedone, Maria; Granieri, Domenico; Moretti, Roberto; Fedele, Alessandro; Troise, Claudia; Somma, Renato; De Natale, Giuseppe

2017-12-01

This study investigates fumarolic CO2 emissions at Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy) and their dispersion in the lowest atmospheric boundary layer. We innovatively utilize a Lagrangian Stochastic dispersion model (WindTrax) combined with an Eulerian model (DISGAS) to diagnose the dispersion of diluted gas plumes over large and complex topographic domains. New measurements of CO2 concentrations acquired in February and October 2014 in the area of Pisciarelli and Solfatara, the two major fumarolic fields of Campi Flegrei caldera, and simultaneous measurements of meteorological parameters are used to: 1) test the ability of WindTrax to calculate the fumarolic CO2 flux from the investigated sources, and 2) perform predictive numerical simulations to resolve the mutual interference between the CO2 emissions of the two adjacent areas. This novel approach allows us to a) better quantify the CO2 emission of the fumarolic source, b) discriminate ;true; CO2 contributions for each source, and c) understand the potential impact of the composite CO2 plume (Pisciarelli ;plus; Solfatara) on the highly populated areas inside the Campi Flegrei caldera.

Some dynamics of spread and infection by aeciospores of Puccinia punctiformis, a biological control pathogen of Cirsium arvense

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study, effective spread of aeciospores from an area source in a field was fit to an exponential decline model with a predicted maximum distance of spread of 30 m from the area source to observed uredinia on one leaf of one C. arvense shoot. However, the greatest number of shoots bearing leav...

Steady-state solution of the semi-empirical diffusion equation for area sources. [air pollution studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebedeff, S. A.; Hameed, S.

1975-01-01

The problem investigated can be solved exactly in a simple manner if the equations are written in terms of a similarity variable. The exact solution is used to explore two questions of interest in the modelling of urban air pollution, taking into account the distribution of surface concentration downwind of an area source and the distribution of concentration with height.

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Katherine M; Grote, Mark N.; Deinhart, Amanda; Eppich, Gary; Kendall, Carol; Sanborn, Matthew E.; Sounders, A. Kate; Wimpenny, Joshua; Yin, Qing-zhu; Young, Megan B.; Harter, Thomas

2016-01-01

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

Evaluating the impact of improvements to the FLAMBE smoke source model on forecasts of aerosol distribution from NAAPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

2006-12-01

As more forecast models aim to include aerosol and chemical species, there is a need for source functions for biomass burning emissions that are accurate, robust, and operable in real-time. NAAPS is a global aerosol forecast model running every six hours and forecasting distributions of biomass burning, industrial sulfate, dust, and sea salt aerosols. This model is run operationally by the U.S. Navy as an aid to planning. The smoke emissions used as input to the model are calculated from the data collected by the FLAMBE system, driven by near-real-time active fire data from GOES WF_ABBA and MODIS Rapid Response. The smoke source function uses land cover data to predict properties of detected fires based on literature data from experimental burns. This scheme is very sensitive to the choice of land cover data sets. In areas of rapid land cover change, the use of static land cover data can produce artifactual changes in emissions unrelated to real changes in fire patterns. In South America, this change may be as large as 40% over five years. We demonstrate the impact of a modified land cover scheme on FLAMBE emissions and NAAPS forecasts, including a fire size algorithm developed using MODIS burned area data. We also describe the effects of corrections to emissions estimates for cloud and satellite coverage. We outline areas where existing data sources are incomplete and improvements are required to achieve accurate modeling of biomass burning emissions in real time.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Correlating landscape pattern with total nitrogen concentration using a location-weighted sink-source landscape index in the Haihe River Basin, China].

PubMed

Sun, Ran-Hao; Chen, Li-Ding; Wang, Wei; Wang, Zhao-Ming

2012-06-01

Understanding the effect of land cover pattern on nutrient losses is of great importance in management of water resources. The extensive application of mechanism models is limited in large-scale watersheds owing to the intensive data and calibration requirements. On the other hand, the traditional landscape indexes only take the areas and types of land cover into account, considering less about their topographic features and spatial patterns. We constructed a location-weighted landscape index (LWLI) based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the cumulative proportion of areas for sink and source landscapes respectively against cumulative proportion of their relative location to the outlet in a watershed, including relative elevation, distance and slope. We assessed the effect of land cover pattern on total nitrogen losses in the Haihe River. Firstly, 26 watersheds were derived from 1: 250 000 digital elevation model (DEM), and their "source" and "sink" landscape types were identified from Landsat TM images in 2007. The source" landscapes referred to the paddy land, dry land and residential area, correspondingly the "sink" landscapes referred to the forest and grassland. Secondly, LWLI was calculated according to the landscape types and spatial patterns for each watershed. Thirdly, we accessed the effect of land cover pattern on total nitrogen (TN) flux according to the value of LWLI, comparing with the area proportion of sink-source landscapes. The correlation coefficients were different in three parts of Haihe River, i. e., 0.86, 0.67 and 0.65 in the Yanshan Mts, Taihang Mts and lower Haihe River. The results showed strong correlations between TN and LWLI in contrast to the weak correlations between TN and area proportion of sink and source landscape types. This study indicates the spatial pattern of land cover is essential for accessing the nutrient losses, and the location-weighted landscape pattern analysis may be an alternate to existing water quality models, especially in large watershed scales. The sink-source index is sufficiently simple that it can be compared across watersheds and be easily interpreted, and potentially be used in landscape pattern optimal designing and planning.

Air quality modeling of selected aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in the Houston urban and industrial airshed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coarfa, Violeta Florentina

2007-12-01

Air toxics, also called hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), pose a serious threat to human health and the environment. Their study is important in the Houston area, where point sources, mostly located along the Ship Channel, mobile and area sources contribute to large emissions of such toxic pollutants. Previous studies carried out in this area found dangerous levels of different HAPs in the atmosphere. This thesis presents several studies that were performed for the aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in the HGA. For these studies we developed several tools: (1) a refined chemical mechanism, which explicitly represents 18 aromatic air toxics that were lumped under two model species by the previous version, based on their reactivity with the hydroxyl radical; (2) an engineering version of an existing air toxics photochemical model that enables us to perform much faster long-term simulations compared to the original model, that leads to a 8--9 times improvement in the running time across different computing platforms; (3) a combined emission inventory based on the available emission databases. Using the developed tools, we quantified the mobile source impact on a few selected air toxics, and analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of selected aromatic and non-aromatic air toxics in a few regions within the Houston area; these regions were characterized by different emissions and environmental conditions.

Estimate of main local sources to ambient ultrafine particle number concentrations in an urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md Mahmudur; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; Morawska, Lidia

2017-09-01

Quantifying and apportioning the contribution of a range of sources to ultrafine particles (UFPs, D < 100 nm) is a challenge due to the complex nature of the urban environments. Although vehicular emissions have long been considered one of the major sources of ultrafine particles in urban areas, the contribution of other major urban sources is not yet fully understood. This paper aims to determine and quantify the contribution of local ground traffic, nucleated particle (NP) formation and distant non-traffic (e.g. airport, oil refineries, and seaport) sources to the total ambient particle number concentration (PNC) in a busy, inner-city area in Brisbane, Australia using Bayesian statistical modelling and other exploratory tools. The Bayesian model was trained on the PNC data on days where NP formations were known to have not occurred, hourly traffic counts, solar radiation data, and smooth daily trend. The model was applied to apportion and quantify the contribution of NP formations and local traffic and non-traffic sources to UFPs. The data analysis incorporated long-term measured time-series of total PNC (D ≥ 6 nm), particle number size distributions (PSD, D = 8 to 400 nm), PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO, meteorological parameters and traffic counts at a stationary monitoring site. The developed Bayesian model showed reliable predictive performances in quantifying the contribution of NP formation events to UFPs (up to 4 × 104 particles cm- 3), with a significant day to day variability. The model identified potential NP formation and no-formations days based on PNC data and quantified the sources contribution to UFPs. Exploratory statistical analyses show that total mean PNC during the middle of the day was up to 32% higher than during peak morning and evening traffic periods, which were associated with NP formation events. The majority of UFPs measured during the peak traffic and NP formation periods were between 30-100 nm and smaller than 30 nm, respectively. To date, this is the first application of Bayesian model to apportion different sources contribution to UFPs, and therefore the importance of this study is not only in its modelling outcomes but in demonstrating the applicability and advantages of this statistical approach to air pollution studies.

A Seismic Source Model for Central Europe and Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.; Williams, C.; Onur, T.

2006-12-01

We present a seismic source model for Central Europe (Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, and Austria) and Italy, as part of an overall seismic risk and loss modeling project for this region. A separate presentation at this conference discusses the probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment (Williams et al., 2006). Where available we adopt regional consensus models and adjusts these to fit our format, otherwise we develop our own model. Our seismic source model covers the whole region under consideration and consists of the following components: 1. A subduction zone environment in Calabria, SE Italy, with interface events between the Eurasian and African plates and intraslab events within the subducting slab. The subduction zone interface is parameterized as a set of dipping area sources that follow the geometry of the surface of the subducting plate, whereas intraslab events are modeled as plane sources at depth; 2. The main normal faults in the upper crust along the Apennines mountain range, in Calabria and Central Italy. Dipping faults and (sub-) vertical faults are parameterized as dipping plane and line sources, respectively; 3. The Upper and Lower Rhine Graben regime that runs from northern Italy into eastern Belgium, parameterized as a combination of dipping plane and line sources, and finally 4. Background seismicity, parameterized as area sources. The fault model is based on slip rates using characteristic recurrence. The modeling of background and subduction zone seismicity is based on a compilation of several national and regional historic seismic catalogs using a Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model. Merging the catalogs encompasses the deletion of double, fake and very old events and the application of a declustering algorithm (Reasenberg, 2000). The resulting catalog contains a little over 6000 events, has an average b-value of -0.9, is complete for moment magnitudes 4.5 and larger, and is used to compute a gridded a-value model (smoothed historical seismicity) for the region. The logic tree weighs various completeness intervals and minimum magnitudes. Using a weighted scheme of European and global ground motion models together with a detailed site classification map for Europe based on Eurocode 8, we generate hazard maps for recurrence periods of 200, 475, 1000 and 2500 yrs.

Strong motion simulation by the composite source modeling: A case study of 1679 M8.0 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bo-Yan; Shi, Bao-Ping; Zhang, Jian

2007-05-01

In this study, a composite source model has been used to calculate the realistic strong ground motions in Beijing area, caused by 1679 M S8.0 earthquake in Sanhe-Pinggu. The results could provide us the useful physical parameters for the future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Considering the regional geological/geophysical background, we simulated the scenario earthquake with an associated ground motions in the area ranging from 39.3°N to 41.1°N in latitude and from 115.35°E to 117.55°E in longitude. Some of the key factors which could influence the characteristics of strong ground motion have been discussed, and the resultant peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution and the peak ground velocity (PGV) distribution around Beijing area also have been made as well. A comparison of the simulated result with the results derived from the attenuation relation has been made, and a sufficient discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of composite source model also has been given in this study. The numerical results, such as the PGA, PGV, peak ground displacement (PGD), and the three-component time-histories developed for Beijing area, have a potential application in earthquake engineering field and building code design, especially for the evaluation of critical constructions, government decision making and the seismic hazard assessment by financial/insurance companies.

Recharge sources and residence times of groundwater as determined by geochemical tracers in the Mayfield Area, southwestern Idaho, 2011–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopkins, Candice B.

2013-01-01

Parties proposing residential development in the area of Mayfield, Idaho are seeking a sustainable groundwater supply. During 2011–12, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, used geochemical tracers in the Mayfield area to evaluate sources of aquifer recharge and differences in groundwater residence time. Fourteen groundwater wells and one surface-water site were sampled for major ion chemistry, metals, stable isotopes, and age tracers; data collected from this study were used to evaluate the sources of groundwater recharge and groundwater residence times in the area. Major ion chemistry varied along a flow path between deeper wells, suggesting an upgradient source of dilute water, and a downgradient source of more concentrated water with the geochemical signature of the Idaho Batholith. Samples from shallow wells had elevated nutrient concentrations, a more positive oxygen-18 signature, and younger carbon-14 dates than deep wells, suggesting that recharge comes from young precipitation and surface-water infiltration. Samples from deep wells generally had higher concentrations of metals typical of geothermal waters, a more negative oxygen-18 signature, and older carbon-14 values than samples from shallow wells, suggesting that recharge comes from both infiltration of meteoric water and another source. The chemistry of groundwater sampled from deep wells is somewhat similar to the chemistry in geothermal waters, suggesting that geothermal water may be a source of recharge to this aquifer. Results of NETPATH mixing models suggest that geothermal water composes 1–23 percent of water in deep wells. Chlorofluorocarbons were detected in every sample, which indicates that all groundwater samples contain at least a component of young recharge, and that groundwater is derived from multiple recharge sources. Conclusions from this study can be used to further refine conceptual hydrological models of the area.

A simple distributed sediment delivery approach for rural catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Lucas; Scherer, Ulrike

2014-05-01

The transfer of sediments from source areas to surface waters is a complex process. In process based erosion models sediment input is thus quantified by representing all relevant sub processes such as detachment, transport and deposition of sediment particles along the flow path to the river. A successful application of these models requires, however, a large amount of spatially highly resolved data on physical catchment characteristics, which is only available for a few, well examined small catchments. For the lack of appropriate models, the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is widely applied to quantify the sediment production in meso to large scale basins. As the USLE provides long-term mean soil loss rates, it is often combined with spatially lumped models to estimate the sediment delivery ratio (SDR). In these models, the SDR is related to data on morphological characteristics of the catchment such as average local relief, drainage density, proportion of depressions or soil texture. Some approaches include the relative distance between sediment source areas and the river channels. However, several studies showed that spatially lumped parameters describing the morphological characteristics are only of limited value to represent the factors of influence on sediment transport at the catchment scale. Sediment delivery is controlled by the location of the sediment source areas in the catchment and the morphology along the flow path to the surface water bodies. This complex interaction of spatially varied physiographic characteristics cannot be adequately represented by lumped morphological parameters. The objective of this study is to develop a simple but spatially distributed approach to quantify the sediment delivery ratio by considering the characteristics of the flow paths in a catchment. We selected a small catchment located in in an intensively cultivated loess region in Southwest Germany as study area for the development of the SDR approach. The flow pathways were extracted in a geographic information system. Then the sediment delivery ratio for each source area was determined using an empirical approach considering the slope, morphology and land use properties along the flow path. As a benchmark for the calibration of the model parameters we used results of a detailed process based erosion model available for the study area. Afterwards the approach was tested in larger catchments located in the same loess region.

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include either exposure or emissions reduction, and a host of stakeholders, including residents, academics, NGOs, local and federal agencies. This presentation includes results from the C-PORT modeling system, and from a citizen science project from the local area. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Sources and transport of phosphorus to rivers in California and adjacent states, U.S., as determined by SPARROW modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domagalski, Joseph L.; Saleh, Dina

2015-01-01

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de-trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small- and intermediate-sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.

Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, J.D.; Wagner, C.R.

2009-01-01

Flood inundation maps typically have been used to depict inundated areas for floods having specific exceedance levels. The uncertainty associated with the inundation boundaries is seldom quantified, in part, because all of the sources of uncertainty are not recognized and because data available to quantify uncertainty seldom are available. Sources of uncertainty discussed in this paper include hydrologic data used for hydraulic model development and validation, topographic data, and the hydraulic model. The assumption of steady flow, which typically is made to produce inundation maps, has less of an effect on predicted inundation at lower flows than for higher flows because more time typically is required to inundate areas at high flows than at low flows. Difficulties with establishing reasonable cross sections that do not intersect and that represent water-surface slopes in tributaries contribute additional uncertainties in the hydraulic modelling. As a result, uncertainty in the flood inundation polygons simulated with a one-dimensional model increases with distance from the main channel.

Isotopic identification of natural vs. anthropogenic lead sources in marine sediments from the inner Ría de Vigo (NW Spain).

PubMed

Álvarez-Iglesias, P; Rubio, B; Millos, J

2012-10-15

San Simón Bay, the inner part of the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain), an area previously identified as highly polluted by Pb, was selected for the application of Pb stable isotope ratios as a fingerprinting tool in subtidal and intertidal sediment cores. Lead isotopic ratios were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry on extracts from bulk samples after total acid digestion. Depth-wise profiles of (206)Pb/(207)Pb, (206)Pb/(204)Pb, (207)Pb/(204)Pb, (208)Pb/(204)Pb and (208)Pb/(207)Pb ratios showed, in general, an upward decrease for both intertidal and subtidal sediments as a consequence of the anthropogenic activities over the last century, or centuries. Waste channel samples from a nearby ceramic factory showed characteristic Pb stable isotope ratios different from those typical of coal and petrol. Natural isotope ratios from non-polluted samples were established for the study area, differentiating sediments from granitic or schist-gneiss sources. A binary mixing model employed on the polluted samples allowed estimating the anthropogenic inputs to the bay. These inputs represented between 25 and 98% of Pb inputs in intertidal samples, and 9-84% in subtidal samples, their contributions varying with time. Anthropogenic sources were apportioned according to a three-source model. Coal combustion-related emissions were the main anthropogenic source Pb to the bay (60-70%) before the establishment of the ceramic factory in the area (in the 1970s) which has since constituted the main source (95-100%), followed by petrol-related emissions. The Pb inputs history for the intertidal area was determined for the 20th century, and, for the subtidal area, the 19th and 20th centuries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of nitrate sources in groundwater and potential impact on drinking water reservoir (Goczałkowice reservoir, Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czekaj, Joanna; Jakóbczyk-Karpierz, Sabina; Rubin, Hanna; Sitek, Sławomir; Witkowski, Andrzej J.

2016-08-01

Goczałkowice dammed reservoir (area - 26 km2) is a strategic object for flood control in the Upper Vistula River catchment and one of the most important source of drinking water in the Upper Silesian Industrial Region (Southern Poland). Main aims of the investigation were identification of sources of nitrate and assessment of their significance in potential risk to groundwater quality. In the catchment area monitoring network of 22 piezometers, included 14 nested, have been installed. The significant spatial and seasonal differences in chemical composition between northern and southern part of the catchment were indicated based on the groundwater sampling conducted twice - in autumn 2011 and spring 2012. Maximum observed concentrations of nitrate were identified in northern part of the study area 255 mg/L as a results of inappropriate sewage management and agriculture activity. Results, based on the combines multi-scale hydrogeological and hydrochemical field studies, groundwater flow and transport modelling, dual stable isotope approach and geochemical modelling indicate mainly agriculture and inappropriate sewage water management as a sources of NO3- contamination of groundwater which moreover is affected by geochemical processes. In general, contaminated groundwater does not impact surface water quality. However, due to high concentration of nitrate in northern part a continues measurements of nitrogen compounds should be continued and used for reducing uncertainty of the predictive scenarios of the mass transport modelling in the study area.

Cortical Transformation of Spatial Processing for Solving the Cocktail Party Problem: A Computational Model123

PubMed Central

Dong, Junzi; Colburn, H. Steven

2016-01-01

In multisource, “cocktail party” sound environments, human and animal auditory systems can use spatial cues to effectively separate and follow one source of sound over competing sources. While mechanisms to extract spatial cues such as interaural time differences (ITDs) are well understood in precortical areas, how such information is reused and transformed in higher cortical regions to represent segregated sound sources is not clear. We present a computational model describing a hypothesized neural network that spans spatial cue detection areas and the cortex. This network is based on recent physiological findings that cortical neurons selectively encode target stimuli in the presence of competing maskers based on source locations (Maddox et al., 2012). We demonstrate that key features of cortical responses can be generated by the model network, which exploits spatial interactions between inputs via lateral inhibition, enabling the spatial separation of target and interfering sources while allowing monitoring of a broader acoustic space when there is no competition. We present the model network along with testable experimental paradigms as a starting point for understanding the transformation and organization of spatial information from midbrain to cortex. This network is then extended to suggest engineering solutions that may be useful for hearing-assistive devices in solving the cocktail party problem. PMID:26866056

Cortical Transformation of Spatial Processing for Solving the Cocktail Party Problem: A Computational Model(1,2,3).

PubMed

Dong, Junzi; Colburn, H Steven; Sen, Kamal

2016-01-01

In multisource, "cocktail party" sound environments, human and animal auditory systems can use spatial cues to effectively separate and follow one source of sound over competing sources. While mechanisms to extract spatial cues such as interaural time differences (ITDs) are well understood in precortical areas, how such information is reused and transformed in higher cortical regions to represent segregated sound sources is not clear. We present a computational model describing a hypothesized neural network that spans spatial cue detection areas and the cortex. This network is based on recent physiological findings that cortical neurons selectively encode target stimuli in the presence of competing maskers based on source locations (Maddox et al., 2012). We demonstrate that key features of cortical responses can be generated by the model network, which exploits spatial interactions between inputs via lateral inhibition, enabling the spatial separation of target and interfering sources while allowing monitoring of a broader acoustic space when there is no competition. We present the model network along with testable experimental paradigms as a starting point for understanding the transformation and organization of spatial information from midbrain to cortex. This network is then extended to suggest engineering solutions that may be useful for hearing-assistive devices in solving the cocktail party problem.

Deterministic earthquake scenario for the Basel area: Simulating strong motions and site effects for Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OpršAl, Ivo; FäH, Donat; Mai, P. Martin; Giardini, Domenico

2005-04-01

The Basel earthquake of 18 October 1356 is considered one of the most serious earthquakes in Europe in recent centuries (I0 = IX, M ≈ 6.5-6.9). In this paper we present ground motion simulations for earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel and its vicinity. The numerical modeling combines the finite extent pseudodynamic and kinematic source models with complex local structure in a two-step hybrid three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference (FD) method. The synthetic seismograms are accurate in the frequency band 0-2.2 Hz. The 3-D FD is a linear explicit displacement formulation using an irregular rectangular grid including topography. The finite extent rupture model is adjacent to the free surface because the fault has been recognized through trenching on the Reinach fault. We test two source models reminiscent of past earthquakes (the 1999 Athens and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) to represent Mw ≈ 5.9 and Mw ≈ 6.5 events that occur approximately to the south of Basel. To compare the effect of the same wave field arriving at the site from other directions, we considered the same sources placed east and west of the city. The local structural model is determined from the area's recently established P and S wave velocity structure and includes topography. The selected earthquake scenarios show strong ground motion amplification with respect to a bedrock site, which is in contrast to previous 2-D simulations for the same area. In particular, we found that the edge effects from the 3-D structural model depend strongly on the position of the earthquake source within the modeling domain.

Effects of downscaled high-resolution meteorological data on the PSCF identification of emission sources

DOE PAGES

Cheng, Meng -Dawn; Kabela, Erik D.

2016-04-30

The Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) model has been successfully used for identifying regions of emission source at a long distance in this study, the PSCF model relies on backward trajectories calculated by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. In this study, we investigated the impacts of grid resolution and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization (e.g., turbulent transport of pollutants) on the PSCF analysis. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Yonsei University (YUS) parameterization schemes were selected to model the turbulent transport in the PBL within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF version 3.6) model. Two separate domain grid sizesmore » (83 and 27 km) were chosen in the WRF downscaling in generating the wind data for driving the HYSPLIT calculation. The effects of grid size and PBL parameterization are important in incorporating the influ- ence of regional and local meteorological processes such as jet streaks, blocking patterns, Rossby waves, and terrain-induced convection on the transport of pollutants by a wind trajectory. We found high resolution PSCF did discover and locate source areas more precisely than that with lower resolution meteorological inputs. The lack of anticipated improvement could also be because a PBL scheme chosen to produce the WRF data was only a local parameterization and unable to faithfully duplicate the real atmosphere on a global scale. The MYJ scheme was able to replicate PSCF source identification by those using the Reanalysis and discover additional source areas that was not identified by the Reanalysis data. In conclusion, a potential benefit for using high-resolution wind data in the PSCF modeling is that it could discover new source location in addition to those identified by using the Reanalysis data input.« less

Unique effects and moderators of effects of sources on self-efficacy: A model-based meta-analysis.

PubMed

Byars-Winston, Angela; Diestelmann, Jacob; Savoy, Julia N; Hoyt, William T

2017-11-01

Self-efficacy beliefs are strong predictors of academic pursuits, performance, and persistence, and in theory are developed and maintained by 4 classes of experiences Bandura (1986) referred to as sources: performance accomplishments (PA), vicarious learning (VL), social persuasion (SP), and affective arousal (AA). The effects of sources on self-efficacy vary by performance domain and individual difference factors. In this meta-analysis (k = 61 studies of academic self-efficacy; N = 8,965), we employed B. J. Becker's (2009) model-based approach to examine cumulative effects of the sources as a set and unique effects of each source, controlling for the others. Following Becker's recommendations, we used available data to create a correlation matrix for the 4 sources and self-efficacy, then used these meta-analytically derived correlations to test our path model. We further examined moderation of these associations by subject area (STEM vs. non-STEM), grade, sex, and ethnicity. PA showed by far the strongest unique association with self-efficacy beliefs. Subject area was a significant moderator, with sources collectively predicting self-efficacy more strongly in non-STEM (k = 14) compared with STEM (k = 47) subjects (R2 = .37 and .22, respectively). Within studies of STEM subjects, grade level was a significant moderator of the coefficients in our path model, as were 2 continuous study characteristics (percent non-White and percent female). Practical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall over large areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Sabatino; Della Sala, Maria

2014-05-01

Due to heavy rainstorms, steep hillslopes may be affected by either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion (Acharya et al., 2011), which originate different flow-like mass movements in adjacent or overlapping source areas (Cascini et al., 2013). Triggering analysis (Cascini et al., 2011) is a relevant issue for hazard assessment that is, in turn, the first step of risk analysis procedures (Fell et al., 2008). Nevertheless, the available approaches separately consider shallow landslides and soil erosion. Specifically, quantitative models for landslides triggering analysis allow simulating the physical processes leading to failure such as pore water pressure increase and soil shear mobilization and provide estimates of the amount of material potentially involved; however, success of quantitative methods must be carefully evaluated in complex geological setting as recently outlined (Sorbino et al., 2010) and further applications to real case histories are straightforward. On the other hand, a wide range of models exist for soil erosion analysis, which differ in terms of complexity, processes considered and data required for the model calibration and practical applications; in particular, quantitative models can estimate the source areas and the amount of eroded soil through empirical relationships or mathematical equations describing the main physical processes governing soil erosion (Merritt et al., 2003). In this work a spatially distributed analysis is proposed for testing the potentialities of two available models to respectively investigate the spatial occurrence of first-time shallow landslides and superficial soil erosion repeatedly occurring in a large test area of the Southern Italy. Both analyses take into account the seasonal variation of soil suction, rainfall characteristics and soil cover use (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013). The achieved results show that the source areas of shallow landslides strongly depend on rainfall intensity and duration and soil initial suction. On the other hand, the source areas for erosion phenomena depend on rainfall characteristics and soil cover, with simulated eroded areas larger in autumn season. In addition, for a past event, the simulated source areas of shallow landslides are smaller than those observed in the field while the simulated eroded areas with thickness greater than 5 cm are comparable with the in-situ evidences if the analysis takes into account high rainfall intensity and a spatially variable soil cover use, thus providing a consistent interpretation of the event. References Acharya, G., Cochrane, T., Davies, T., Bowman, E. (2011). Quantifying and modeling postfailure sediment yields from laboratory-scale soil erosion and shallow landslide experiments with silty loess. Geomorphology 129, 49-58. Cascini L., Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2011). Spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides of flow type: A case of Sarno-Quindici, Italy. Geomorphology, 126(1-2), 148-158. Cascini, L., Sorbino, G., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S. (2013). Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy). Landslides, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0395-3. Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2013). Spatially distributed analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall. (submitted to Natural Hazards). Fell, R., Corominas J., Bonnard, C., Cascini, L., Leroi E., Savage, W.Z., on behalf of the JTC-1 Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (2008). Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Engineering Geolology, 102(3-4):85-98. Merritt, W.S., Latcher, R.A., Jakeman, A.J. (2003). A review of erosion and sediment transport models. Environmental Modelling and Software 18, 761- 799. Sorbino G., Sica C., Cascini L. (2010). Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models. Natural Hazards, 53(2), 313-332.

Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases from the Baltimore-Washington Area: Results from WINTER 2015 Aircraft Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickerson, R. R.; Ren, X.; Shepson, P. B.; Salmon, O. E.; Brown, S. S.; Thornton, J. A.; Whetstone, J. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Sahu, S.; Hall, D.; Grimes, C.; Wong, T. M.

2015-12-01

Urban areas are responsible for a major component of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Quantification of urban GHG fluxes is important for establishing scientifically sound and cost-effective policies for mitigating GHGs. Discrepancies between observations and model simulations of GHGs suggest uncharacterized sources in urban environments. In this work, we analyze and quantify fluxes of CO2, CH4, CO (and other trace species) from the Baltimore-Washington area based on the mass balance approach using the two-aircraft observations conducted in February-March 2015. Estimated fluxes from this area were 110,000±20,000 moles s-1 for CO2, 700±330 moles s-1 for CH4, and 535±188 moles s-1 for CO. This implies that methane is responsible for ~20% of the climate forcing from these cities. Point sources of CO2 from four regional power plants and one point source of CH4 from a landfill were identified and the emissions from these point sources were quantified based on the aircraft observation and compared to the emission inventory data. Methane fluxes from the Washington area were larger than from the Baltimore area, indicating a larger leakage rate in the Washington area. The ethane-to-methane ratios, with a mean of 3.3%, in the limited canister samples collected during the flights indicate that natural gas leaks and the upwind oil and natural gas operations are responsible for a substantial fraction of the CH4 flux. These observations will be compared to models using Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation techniques.

Evaluation of emission control strategies to reduce ozone pollution in the Paso del Norte region using a photochemical air quality modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Victor Hugo

Air pollution emissions control strategies to reduce ozone precursor pollutants are analyzed by applying a photochemical modeling system. Simulations of air quality conditions during an ozone episode which occurred in June, 2006 are undertaken by increasing or reducing area source emissions in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Two air pollutants are primary drivers in the formation of tropospheric ozone. Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) undergo multiple chemical reactions under favorable meteorological conditions to form ozone, which is a secondary pollutant that irritates respiratory systems in sensitive individuals especially the elderly and young children. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) to limit ambient air pollutants such as ozone by establishing an 8-hour average concentration of 0.075 ppm as the threshold at which a violation of the standard occurs. Ozone forms primarily due reactions in the troposphere of NOx and VOC emissions generated primarily by anthropogenic sources in urban regions. Data from emissions inventories indicate area sources account for ˜15 of NOx and ˜45% of regional VOC emissions. Area sources include gasoline stations, automotive paint bodyshops and nonroad mobile sources. Multiplicity of air pollution emissions sources provides an opportunity to investigate and potentially implement air quality improvement strategies to reduce emissions which contribute to elevated ozone concentrations. A baseline modeling scenario was established using the CAMx photochemical air quality model from which a series of sensitivity analyses for evaluating air quality control strategies were conducted. Modifications to area source emissions were made by varying NOx and / or VOC emissions in the areas of particular interest. Model performance was assessed for each sensitivity analysis. Normalized bias (NB) and normalized error (NE) were used to identify variability of the PREDICTED to OBSERVED ozone concentrations of both BASELINE model and simulations with modified emissions assessed by the sensitivity analysis. All simulations were found to vary within acceptable ranges of these two criteria variables. Simulation results indicate ozone formation in the PdN region is VOC-limited. Under VOC-limited conditions, modifications to NOx emissions do not produce a marked increase or decrease in ozone concentrations. Modifications to VOC emissions generated the highest variability in ozone concentrations. Increasing VOC emissions by 75% produced results which minimized model bias and error when comparing PREDICTED and OBSERVED ozone concentrations. Increasing VOC emissions by 75% either alone or in combination with a 75% increase in NOx emissions generated PREDICTED ozone concentrations very near to OBSERVED ozone. By evaluating the changes in ambient ozone concentrations through photochemical modeling, air quality planners may identify the most efficient or effective VOC emissions control strategies for area sources. Among the strategies to achieve emissions reductions are installation of gasoline vapor recovery systems, replacing high-pressure low-volume surface coating paint spray guns with high-volume low-pressure spray paint guns, requiring emissions control booths for surface coating operations as well as undertaking solvent management practices, requiring the sale of low VOC paint solvents in the surface-coating industry, and requiring low-VOC solvents in the dry cleaning industry. Other strategies to reduce VOC emissions include initiating Eco-Driving strategies to reduce fuel consumption from mobile sources and minimize vehicle idling at the international ports of entry by reducing bridge wait times. This dissertation depicts a tool for evaluating impacts of emissions on regional air quality by addressing the highly unresolved fugitive emissions in the Paso del Norte region. It provides a protocol for decision makers to assess the effects of various emission control strategies in the region. Impacts of specific source categories such as the international ports of entry, gasoline stations, paint body shops, truck stops, and military installations on the regional air quality can be easily and systematically addressed in a timely manner in the future.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

Contribution of Fugitive Emissions for PM10 Concentrations in an Industrial Area of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marta Almeida, Susana; Viana Silva, Alexandra; Garcia, Silvia; Miranda, Ana Isabel

2013-04-01

Significant atmospheric dust arises from the mechanical disturbance of granular material exposed to the air. Dust generated from these open sources is termed "fugitive" because it is not discharged to the atmosphere in a confined flow stream. Common sources of fugitive dust include unpaved roads, agricultural tilling operations, aggregate storage piles, heavy construction and harbor operations. The objective of this work was to identify the likeliness and extend of the PM10 limit value exceedences due to fugitive emissions in a particularly zone where PM fugitive emissions are a core of environmental concerns - Mitrena, Portugal. Mitrena, is an industrial area that coexists with a high-density urban region (Setúbal) and areas with an important environmental concern (Sado Estuary and Arrábida which belongs to the protected area Natura 2000 Network). Due to the typology of industry sited in Mitrena (e.g. power plant, paper mill, cement, pesticides and fertilized productions), there are a large uncontrolled PM fugitive emissions, providing from heavy traffic and handling and storage of raw material on uncover stockyards in the harbor and industries. Dispersion modeling was performed with the software TAPM (The Air Pollution Model) and results were mapped over the study area, using GIS (Geographic Information Systems). Results showed that managing local particles concentrations can be a frustrating affair because the weight of fugitive sources is very high comparing with the local anthropogenic stationary sources. In order to ensure that the industry can continue to meet its commitments in protecting air quality, it is essential to warrant that the characteristics of releases from all fugitive sources are fully understood in order to target future investments in those areas where maximum benefit will be achieved.

Infrared Faint Radio Sources in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, Minh T.

2009-01-01

Infrared-Faint Radio Sources (IFRSs) are a class of radio objects found in the Australia Telescope Large Area Survey (ATLAS) which have no observable counterpart in the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic Survey (SWIRE). The extended Chandra Deep Field South now has even deeper Spitzer imaging (3.6 to 70 micron) from a number of Legacy surveys. We report the detections of two IFRS sources in IRAC images. The non-detection of two other IFRSs allows us to constrain the source type. Detailed modeling of the SED of these objects shows that they are consistent with high redshift AGN (z > 2).

Modelling of the estimated contributions of different sub-watersheds and sources to phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

PubMed

Hou, Ying; Chen, Weiping; Liao, Yuehua; Luo, Yueping

2017-11-03

Considerable growth in the economy and population of the Dongting Lake watershed in Southern China has increased phosphorus loading to the lake and resulted in a growing risk of lake eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the spatial pattern and sources of phosphorus export and loading from the watershed. We applied an export coefficient model and the Dillon-Rigler model to quantify contributions of different sub-watersheds and sources to the total phosphorus (TP) export and loading in 2010. Together, the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area contributed 60.9% of the TP exported from the entire watershed. Livestock husbandry appeared to be the largest anthropogenic source of TP, contributing more than 50% of the TP exported from each secondary sub-watersheds. The actual TP loading to the lake in 2010 was 62.9% more than the permissible annual TP loading for compliance with the Class III water quality standard for lakes. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-contributed 91.2% of the total TP loading. As the largest contributor among all sources, livestock husbandry contributed nearly 50% of the TP loading from the Dongting Lake Area and more than 60% from each of the other primary sub-watersheds. This study provides a methodology to identify the key sources and locations of TP export and loading in large lake watersheds. The study can provide a reference for the decision-making for controlling P pollution in the Dongting Lake watershed.

Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence.

PubMed

Bowen, Daniel A; Mercer Kollar, Laura M; Wu, Daniel T; Fraser, David A; Flood, Charles E; Moore, Jasmine C; Mays, Elizabeth W; Sumner, Steven A

2018-05-24

Identifying geographic areas and time periods of increased violence is of considerable importance in prevention planning. This study compared the performance of multiple data sources to prospectively forecast areas of increased interpersonal violence. We used 2011-2014 data from a large metropolitan county on interpersonal violence (homicide, assault, rape and robbery) and forecasted violence at the level of census block-groups and over a one-month moving time window. Inputs to a Random Forest model included historical crime records from the police department, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and administrative data on licensed businesses. Among 279 block groups, a model utilizing all data sources was found to prospectively improve the identification of the top 5% most violent block-group months (positive predictive value = 52.1%; negative predictive value = 97.5%; sensitivity = 43.4%; specificity = 98.2%). Predictive modelling with simple inputs can help communities more efficiently focus violence prevention resources geographically.

Fermi large area telescope second source catalog

DOE PAGES

Nolan, P. L.; Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; ...

2012-03-28

Here, we present the second catalog of high-energy γ-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are fluxmore » measurements in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. Furthermore, we provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. Finally, the 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely γ-ray-producing source classes.« less

FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE SECOND SOURCE CATALOG

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nolan, P. L.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.

We present the second catalog of high-energy {gamma}-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurementsmore » in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely {gamma}-ray-producing source classes.« less

Children's Ability to Distinguish between Memories from Multiple Sources: Implications for the Quality and Accuracy of Eyewitness Statements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Kim P.

2002-01-01

Outlines five perspectives addressing alternate aspects of the development of children's source monitoring: source-monitoring theory, fuzzy-trace theory, schema theory, person-based perspective, and mental-state reasoning model. Discusses research areas with relation to forensic developmental psychology: agent identity, prospective processing,…

Evidence for Legacy Contamination of Nitrate in Groundwater of North Carolina Using Monitoring and Private Well Data Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messier, K. P.; Kane, E.; Bolich, R.; Serre, M. L.

2014-12-01

Nitrate (NO3-) is a widespread contaminant of groundwater and surface water across the United States that has deleterious effects to human and ecological health. Legacy contamination, or past releases of NO3-, is thought to be impacting current groundwater and surface water of North Carolina. This study develops a model for predicting point-level groundwater NO3- at a state scale for monitoring wells and private wells of North Carolina. A land use regression (LUR) model selection procedure known as constrained forward nonlinear regression and hyperparameter optimization (CFN-RHO) is developed for determining nonlinear model explanatory variables when they are known to be correlated. Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) is then used to integrate the LUR model to create a LUR-BME model of spatial/temporal varying groundwater NO3- concentrations. LUR-BME results in a leave-one-out cross-validation r2 of 0.74 and 0.33 for monitoring and private wells, effectively predicting within spatial covariance ranges. The major finding regarding legacy sources NO3- in this study is that the LUR-BME models show the geographical extent of low-level contamination of deeper drinking-water aquifers is beyond that of the shallower monitoring well. Groundwater NO3- in monitoring wells is highly variable with many areas predicted above the current Environmental Protection Agency standard of 10 mg/L. Contrarily, the private well results depict widespread, low-level NO3-concentrations. This evidence supports that in addition to downward transport, there is also a significant outward transport of groundwater NO3- in the drinking water aquifer to areas outside the range of sources. Results indicate that the deeper aquifers are potentially acting as a reservoir that is not only deeper, but also covers a larger geographical area, than the reservoir formed by the shallow aquifers. Results are of interest to agencies that regulate surface water and drinking water sources impacted by the effects of legacy NO3- sources. Additionally, the results can provide guidance on factors affecting the point-level variability of groundwater NO3- and areas where monitoring is needed to reduce uncertainty. Lastly, LUR-BME predictions can be integrated into surface water models for more accurate management of non-point sources of nitrogen.

Overview of the SHARP campaign: Motivation, design, and major outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olaguer, Eduardo P.; Kolb, Charles E.; Lefer, Barry; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Zhang, Renyi; Pinto, Joseph P.

2014-03-01

The Study of Houston Atmospheric Radical Precursors (SHARP) was a field campaign developed by the Houston Advanced Research Center on behalf of the Texas Environmental Research Consortium. SHARP capitalized on previous research associated with the Second Texas Air Quality Study and the development of the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) ozone nonattainment area. These earlier studies pointed to an apparent deficit in ozone production in the SIP attainment demonstration model despite the enhancement of simulated emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds in accordance with the findings of the original Texas Air Quality Study in 2000. The scientific hypothesis underlying the SHARP campaign was that there are significant undercounted primary and secondary sources of the radical precursors, formaldehyde, and nitrous acid, in both heavily industrialized and more typical urban areas of Houston. These sources, if properly taken into account, could increase the production of ozone in the SIP model and the simulated efficacy of control strategies designed to bring the HGB area into ozone attainment. This overview summarizes the precursor studies and motivations behind SHARP, as well as the overall experimental design and major findings of the 2009 field campaign. These findings include significant combustion sources of formaldehyde at levels greater than accounted for in current point source emission inventories; the underestimation of formaldehyde and nitrous acid emissions, as well as CO/NOx and NO2/NOx ratios, by mobile source models; and the enhancement of nitrous acid by atmospheric organic aerosol.

Characterizing the detectability of emission signals from a North Korean nuclear detonation

DOE PAGES

Werth, David; Buckley, Robert

2017-02-01

Here, the detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously ‘backtrack’ it to its source.

Fermi Large Area Telescope Second Source Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P. L.; Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Antolini, E.; Atwood, W. B.; Axelsson, M.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.; Belfiore, A.; Bellazzini, R.; Berenji, B.; Bignami, G. F.; Blandford, R. D.; Bloom, E. D.; Bonamente, E.; Bonnell, J.; Borgland, A. W.; Bottacini, E.; Bouvier, A.; Brandt, T. J.; Bregeon, J.; Brigida, M.; Bruel, P.; Buehler, R.; Burnett, T. H.; Buson, S.; Caliandro, G. A.; Cameron, R. A.; Campana, R.; Cañadas, B.; Cannon, A.; Caraveo, P. A.; Casandjian, J. M.; Cavazzuti, E.; Ceccanti, M.; Cecchi, C.; Çelik, Ö.; Charles, E.; Chekhtman, A.; Cheung, C. C.; Chiang, J.; Chipaux, R.; Ciprini, S.; Claus, R.; Cohen-Tanugi, J.; Cominsky, L. R.; Conrad, J.; Corbet, R.; Cutini, S.; D'Ammando, F.; Davis, D. S.; de Angelis, A.; DeCesar, M. E.; DeKlotz, M.; De Luca, A.; den Hartog, P. R.; de Palma, F.; Dermer, C. D.; Digel, S. W.; Silva, E. do Couto e.; Drell, P. S.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Dubois, R.; Dumora, D.; Enoto, T.; Escande, L.; Fabiani, D.; Falletti, L.; Favuzzi, C.; Fegan, S. J.; Ferrara, E. C.; Focke, W. B.; Fortin, P.; Frailis, M.; Fukazawa, Y.; Funk, S.; Fusco, P.; Gargano, F.; Gasparrini, D.; Gehrels, N.; Germani, S.; Giebels, B.; Giglietto, N.; Giommi, P.; Giordano, F.; Giroletti, M.; Glanzman, T.; Godfrey, G.; Grenier, I. A.; Grondin, M.-H.; Grove, J. E.; Guillemot, L.; Guiriec, S.; Gustafsson, M.; Hadasch, D.; Hanabata, Y.; Harding, A. K.; Hayashida, M.; Hays, E.; Hill, A. B.; Horan, D.; Hou, X.; Hughes, R. E.; Iafrate, G.; Itoh, R.; Jóhannesson, G.; Johnson, R. P.; Johnson, T. E.; Johnson, A. S.; Johnson, T. J.; Kamae, T.; Katagiri, H.; Kataoka, J.; Katsuta, J.; Kawai, N.; Kerr, M.; Knödlseder, J.; Kocevski, D.; Kuss, M.; Lande, J.; Landriu, D.; Latronico, L.; Lemoine-Goumard, M.; Lionetto, A. M.; Llena Garde, M.; Longo, F.; Loparco, F.; Lott, B.; Lovellette, M. N.; Lubrano, P.; Madejski, G. M.; Marelli, M.; Massaro, E.; Mazziotta, M. N.; McConville, W.; McEnery, J. E.; Mehault, J.; Michelson, P. F.; Minuti, M.; Mitthumsiri, W.; Mizuno, T.; Moiseev, A. A.; Mongelli, M.; Monte, C.; Monzani, M. E.; Morselli, A.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Murgia, S.; Nakamori, T.; Naumann-Godo, M.; Norris, J. P.; Nuss, E.; Nymark, T.; Ohno, M.; Ohsugi, T.; Okumura, A.; Omodei, N.; Orlando, E.; Ormes, J. F.; Ozaki, M.; Paneque, D.; Panetta, J. H.; Parent, D.; Perkins, J. S.; Pesce-Rollins, M.; Pierbattista, M.; Pinchera, M.; Piron, F.; Pivato, G.; Porter, T. A.; Racusin, J. L.; Rainò, S.; Rando, R.; Razzano, M.; Razzaque, S.; Reimer, A.; Reimer, O.; Reposeur, T.; Ritz, S.; Rochester, L. S.; Romani, R. W.; Roth, M.; Rousseau, R.; Ryde, F.; Sadrozinski, H. F.-W.; Salvetti, D.; Sanchez, D. A.; Saz Parkinson, P. M.; Sbarra, C.; Scargle, J. D.; Schalk, T. L.; Sgrò, C.; Shaw, M. S.; Shrader, C.; Siskind, E. J.; Smith, D. A.; Spandre, G.; Spinelli, P.; Stephens, T. E.; Strickman, M. S.; Suson, D. J.; Tajima, H.; Takahashi, H.; Takahashi, T.; Tanaka, T.; Thayer, J. G.; Thayer, J. B.; Thompson, D. J.; Tibaldo, L.; Tibolla, O.; Tinebra, F.; Tinivella, M.; Torres, D. F.; Tosti, G.; Troja, E.; Uchiyama, Y.; Vandenbroucke, J.; Van Etten, A.; Van Klaveren, B.; Vasileiou, V.; Vianello, G.; Vitale, V.; Waite, A. P.; Wallace, E.; Wang, P.; Werner, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wood, D. L.; Wood, K. S.; Wood, M.; Yang, Z.; Zimmer, S.

2012-04-01

We present the second catalog of high-energy γ-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely γ-ray-producing source classes. We dedicate this paper to the memory of our colleague Patrick Nolan, who died on 2011 November 6. His career spanned much of the history of high-energy astronomy from space and his work on the Large Area Telescope (LAT) began nearly 20 years ago when it was just a concept. Pat was a central member in the operation of the LAT collaboration and he is greatly missed.

Rainfall Threshold Assessment Corresponding to the Maximum Allowable Turbidity for Source Water.

PubMed

Fan, Shu-Kai S; Kuan, Wen-Hui; Fan, Chihhao; Chen, Chiu-Yang

2016-12-01

  This study aims to assess the upstream rainfall thresholds corresponding to the maximum allowable turbidity of source water, using monitoring data and artificial neural network computation. The Taipei Water Source Domain was selected as the study area, and the upstream rainfall records were collected for statistical analysis. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA), the cumulative rainfall records of one-day Ping-lin, two-day Ping-lin, two-day Tong-hou, one-day Guie-shan, and one-day Tai-ping (rainfall in the previous 24 or 48 hours at the named weather stations) were found to be the five most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. An artificial neural network model was constructed to predict the downstream turbidity in the area investigated. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to assess the rainfall thresholds in the studied area. By setting preselected turbidity criteria, the upstream rainfall thresholds for these statistically determined rain gauge stations were calculated.

Identifing Atmospheric Pollutant Sources Using Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paes, F. F.; Campos, H. F.; Luz, E. P.; Carvalho, A. R.

2008-05-01

The estimation of the area source pollutant strength is a relevant issue for atmospheric environment. This characterizes an inverse problem in the atmospheric pollution dispersion. In the inverse analysis, an area source domain is considered, where the strength of such area source term is assumed unknown. The inverse problem is solved by using a supervised artificial neural network: multi-layer perceptron. The conection weights of the neural network are computed from delta rule - learning process. The neural network inversion is compared with results from standard inverse analysis (regularized inverse solution). In the regularization method, the inverse problem is formulated as a non-linear optimization approach, whose the objective function is given by the square difference between the measured pollutant concentration and the mathematical models, associated with a regularization operator. In our numerical experiments, the forward problem is addressed by a source-receptor scheme, where a regressive Lagrangian model is applied to compute the transition matrix. The second order maximum entropy regularization is used, and the regularization parameter is calculated by the L-curve technique. The objective function is minimized employing a deterministic scheme (a quasi-Newton algorithm) [1] and a stochastic technique (PSO: particle swarm optimization) [2]. The inverse problem methodology is tested with synthetic observational data, from six measurement points in the physical domain. The best inverse solutions were obtained with neural networks. References: [1] D. R. Roberti, D. Anfossi, H. F. Campos Velho, G. A. Degrazia (2005): Estimating Emission Rate and Pollutant Source Location, Ciencia e Natura, p. 131-134. [2] E.F.P. da Luz, H.F. de Campos Velho, J.C. Becceneri, D.R. Roberti (2007): Estimating Atmospheric Area Source Strength Through Particle Swarm Optimization. Inverse Problems, Desing and Optimization Symposium IPDO-2007, April 16-18, Miami (FL), USA, vol 1, p. 354-359.

Assessment of light extinction at a European polluted urban area during wintertime: Impact of PM1 composition and sources.

PubMed

Vecchi, R; Bernardoni, V; Valentini, S; Piazzalunga, A; Fermo, P; Valli, G

2018-02-01

In this paper, results from receptor modelling performed on a well-characterised PM 1 dataset were combined to chemical light extinction data (b ext ) with the aim of assessing the impact of different PM 1 components and sources on light extinction and visibility at a European polluted urban area. It is noteworthy that, at the state of the art, there are still very few papers estimating the impact of different emission sources on light extinction as we present here, although being among the major environmental challenges at many polluted areas. Following the concept of the well-known IMPROVE algorithm, here a tailored site-specific approach (recently developed by our group) was applied to assess chemical light extinction due to PM 1 components and major sources. PM 1 samples collected separately during daytime and nighttime at the urban area of Milan (Italy) were chemically characterised for elements, major ions, elemental and organic carbon, and levoglucosan. Chemical light extinction was estimated and results showed that at the investigated urban site it is heavily impacted by ammonium nitrate and organic matter. Receptor modelling (i.e. Positive Matrix Factorization, EPA-PMF 5.0) was effective to obtain source apportionment; the most reliable solution was found with 7 factors which were tentatively assigned to nitrates, sulphates, wood burning, traffic, industry, fine dust, and a Pb-rich source. The apportionment of aerosol light extinction (b ext,aer ) according to resolved sources showed that considering all samples together nitrate contributed at most (on average 41.6%), followed by sulphate, traffic, and wood burning accounting for 18.3%, 17.8% and 12.4%, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Matthew S.

2014-01-01

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Modelling the Source of Blasting for the Numerical Simulation of Blast-Induced Ground Vibrations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainalis, Daniel; Kaufmann, Olivier; Tshibangu, Jean-Pierre; Verlinden, Olivier; Kouroussis, Georges

2017-01-01

The mining and construction industries have long been faced with considerable attention and criticism in regard to the effects of blasting. The generation of ground vibrations is one of the most significant factors associated with blasting and is becoming increasingly important as mining sites are now regularly located near urban areas. This is of concern to not only the operators of the mine but also residents. Mining sites are subjected to an inevitable compromise: a production blast is designed to fragment the utmost amount of rock possible; however, any increase in the blast can generate ground vibrations which can propagate great distances and cause structural damage or discomfort to residents in surrounding urban areas. To accurately predict the propagation of ground vibrations near these sensitive areas, the blasting process and surrounding environment must be characterised and understood. As an initial step, an accurate model of the source of blast-induced vibrations is required. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the approaches to model the blasting source in order to critically evaluate developments in the field. An overview of the blasting process and description of the various factors which influence the blast performance and subsequent ground vibrations are also presented. Several approaches to analytically model explosives are discussed. Ground vibration prediction methods focused on seed waveform and charge weight scaling techniques are presented. Finally, numerical simulations of the blasting source are discussed, including methods to estimate blasthole wall pressure time-history, and hydrodynamic codes.

Noise propagation in urban and industrial areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, H. G.

1976-01-01

Noise propagation in streets and the discrepancies between theoretical analyses and field measurements are discussed. A cell-model is used to estimate the general background level of noise due to vehicular sources distributed over the urban area.

Simulated impacts of artificial groundwater recharge and discharge of the source area and source volume of an Atlantic Coastal Plain Stream, Delaware, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasper, Joshua W.; Denver, Judish M.; McKenna, Thomas E.; Ullman, William J.

2010-01-01

A numerical groundwater-flow model was used to characterize the source area and volume of Phillips Branch, a baseflow-dominated stream incising a highly permeable unconfined aquifer on the low relief Delmarva Peninsula, USA. Particle-tracking analyses indicate that the source area (5.51 km2) is ~20% smaller than the topographically defined watershed (6.85 km2), and recharge entering ~37% of the surface watershed does not discharge to Phillips Branch. Groundwater residence time within the source volume ranges from a few days to almost 100 years, with 95% of the volume "flushing" within 50 years. Artificial discharge from groundwater pumping alters the shape of the source area and reduces baseflow due to the interception of stream flow paths, but has limited impacts on the residence time of groundwater discharged as baseflow. In contrast, artificial recharge from land-based wastewater disposal substantially reduces the source area, lowers the range in residence time due to the elimination of older flow paths to the stream, and leads to increased discharge to adjacent surface-water bodies. This research suggests that, in this and similar hydrogeologic settings, the "watershed" approach to water-resource management may be limited, particularly where anthropogenic stresses alter the transport of soluble contaminants through highly permeable unconfined aquifers.

Mathematical modeling of atmospheric fine particle-associated primary organic compound concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogge, Wolfgang F.; Hildemann, Lynn M.; Mazurek, Monica A.; Cass, Glen R.; Simoneit, Bernd R. T.

1996-08-01

An atmospheric transport model has been used to explore the relationship between source emissions and ambient air quality for individual particle phase organic compounds present in primary aerosol source emissions. An inventory of fine particulate organic compound emissions was assembled for the Los Angeles area in the year 1982. Sources characterized included noncatalyst- and catalyst-equipped autos, diesel trucks, paved road dust, tire wear, brake lining dust, meat cooking operations, industrial oil-fired boilers, roofing tar pots, natural gas combustion in residential homes, cigarette smoke, fireplaces burning oak and pine wood, and plant leaf abrasion products. These primary fine particle source emissions were supplied to a computer-based model that simulates atmospheric transport, dispersion, and dry deposition based on the time series of hourly wind observations and mixing depths. Monthly average fine particle organic compound concentrations that would prevail if the primary organic aerosol were transported without chemical reaction were computed for more than 100 organic compounds within an 80 km × 80 km modeling area centered over Los Angeles. The monthly average compound concentrations predicted by the transport model were compared to atmospheric measurements made at monitoring sites within the study area during 1982. The predicted seasonal variation and absolute values of the concentrations of the more stable compounds are found to be in reasonable agreement with the ambient observations. While model predictions for the higher molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are in agreement with ambient observations, lower molecular weight PAH show much higher predicted than measured atmospheric concentrations in the particle phase, indicating atmospheric decay by chemical reactions or evaporation from the particle phase. The atmospheric concentrations of dicarboxylic acids and aromatic polycarboxylic acids greatly exceed the contributions that are due to direct emissions from primary sources, confirming that these compounds are principally formed by atmospheric chemical reactions.

A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment--a North American case study.

PubMed

Wang, Bao-Zhen; Chen, Zhi

2013-01-01

This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO(2), SO(2) and PM(2.5)) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Meng, L.

2015-12-01

Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800 instruments) and the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array (~400 instruments), are established.

Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frattini, Paolo; Crosta, Giovanni; Carrara, Alberto; Agliardi, Federico

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter. To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls. We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons ( geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° ( empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities. Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.

Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W.; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

2012-01-01

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23202882

Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W; Maes, Piet; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Farifteh, Jamshid; Coppin, Pol

2012-11-30

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

The Herschel-ATLAS: magnifications and physical sizes of 500-μm-selected strongly lensed galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enia, A.; Negrello, M.; Gurwell, M.; Dye, S.; Rodighiero, G.; Massardi, M.; De Zotti, G.; Franceschini, A.; Cooray, A.; van der Werf, P.; Birkinshaw, M.; Michałowski, M. J.; Oteo, I.

2018-04-01

We perform lens modelling and source reconstruction of Sub-millimetre Array (SMA) data for a sample of 12 strongly lensed galaxies selected at 500μm in the Herschel Astrophysical Terahertz Large Area Survey (H-ATLAS). A previous analysis of the same data set used a single Sérsic profile to model the light distribution of each background galaxy. Here we model the source brightness distribution with an adaptive pixel scale scheme, extended to work in the Fourier visibility space of interferometry. We also present new SMA observations for seven other candidate lensed galaxies from the H-ATLAS sample. Our derived lens model parameters are in general consistent with previous findings. However, our estimated magnification factors, ranging from 3 to 10, are lower. The discrepancies are observed in particular where the reconstructed source hints at the presence of multiple knots of emission. We define an effective radius of the reconstructed sources based on the area in the source plane where emission is detected above 5σ. We also fit the reconstructed source surface brightness with an elliptical Gaussian model. We derive a median value reff ˜ 1.77 kpc and a median Gaussian full width at half-maximum ˜1.47 kpc. After correction for magnification, our sources have intrinsic star formation rates (SFR) ˜ 900-3500 M⊙ yr-1, resulting in a median SFR surface density ΣSFR ˜ 132 M⊙ yr-1 kpc-2 (or ˜218 M⊙ yr-1 kpc-2 for the Gaussian fit). This is consistent with that observed for other star-forming galaxies at similar redshifts, and is significantly below the Eddington limit for a radiation pressure regulated starburst.

Photochemical grid model implementation and application of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the purposes of developing optimal emissions control strategies, efficient approaches are needed to identify the major sources or groups of sources that contribute to elevated ozone (O3) concentrations. Source-based apportionment techniques implemented in photochemical grid models track sources through the physical and chemical processes important to the formation and transport of air pollutants. Photochemical model source apportionment has been used to track source impacts of specific sources, groups of sources (sectors), sources in specific geographic areas, and stratospheric and lateral boundary inflow on O3. The implementation and application of a source apportionment technique for O3 and its precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are described here. The Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) O3 approach is a hybrid of source apportionment and source sensitivity in that O3 production is attributed to precursor sources based on O3 formation regime (e.g., for a NOx-sensitive regime, O3 is apportioned to participating NOx emissions). This implementation is illustrated by tracking multiple emissions source sectors and lateral boundary inflow. NOx, VOC, and O3 attribution to tracked sectors in the application are consistent with spatial and temporal patterns of precursor emissions. The O3 ISAM implementation is further evaluated through comparisons of apportioned am

The Geysers-Clear Lake geothermal area, California - an updated geophysical perspective of heat sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, W.D.; Blakely, R.J.

1995-01-01

The Geysers-Clear Lake geothermal area encompasses a large dry-steam production area in The Geysers field and a documented high-temperature, high-pressure, water-dominated system in the area largely south of Clear Lake, which has not been developed. An updated view is presented of the geological/geophysical complexities of the crust in this region in order to address key unanswered questions about the heat source and tectonics. Forward modeling, multidimensional inversions, and ideal body analysis of the gravity data, new electromagnetic sounding models, and arguments made from other geophysical data sets suggest that many of the geophysical anomalies have significant contributions from rock property and physical state variations in the upper 7 km and not from "magma' at greater depths. Regional tectonic and magmatic processes are analyzed to develop an updated scenario for pluton emplacement that differs substantially from earlier interpretations. In addition, a rationale is outlined for future exploration for geothermal resources in The Geysers-Clear Lake area. -from Authors

Source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj7.3) inferred from kinematic inversion of strong-motion records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Kunikazu; Miyakoshi, Ken; Somei, Kazuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-05-01

In this study, we estimated source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake from strong-motion data by using the multiple-time window linear kinematic waveform inversion method to discuss generation of strong motions and to explain crustal deformation pattern with a seismic source inversion model. A four-segment fault model was assumed based on the aftershock distribution, active fault traces, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data. Three western segments were set to be northwest-dipping planes, and the most eastern segment under the Aso caldera was examined to be a southeast-dipping plane. The velocity structure models used in this study were estimated by using waveform modeling of moderate earthquakes that occurred in the source region. We applied a two-step approach of the inversions of 20 strong-motion datasets observed by K-NET and KiK-net by using band-pass-filtered strong-motion data at 0.05-0.5 Hz and then at 0.05-1.0 Hz. The rupture area of the fault plane was determined by applying the criterion of Somerville et al. (Seismol Res Lett 70:59-80, 1999) to the inverted slip distribution. From the first-step inversion, the fault length was trimmed from 52 to 44 km, whereas the fault width was kept at 18 km. The trimmed rupture area was not changed in the second-step inversion. The source model obtained from the two-step approach indicated 4.7 × 1019 Nm of the total moment release and 1.8 m average slip of the entire fault with a rupture area of 792 km2. Large slip areas were estimated in the seismogenic zone and in the shallow part corresponding to the surface rupture that occurred during the Mj7.3 mainshock. The areas of the high peak moment rate correlated roughly with those of large slip; however, the moment rate functions near the Earth surface have low peak, bell shape, and long duration. These subfaults with long-duration moment release are expected to cause weak short-period ground motions. We confirmed that the southeast dipping of the most eastern segment is more plausible rather than northwest-dipping from the observed subsidence around the central cones of the Aso volcano.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

CoopEUS Case Study: Tsunami Modelling and Early Warning Systems for Near Source Areas (Mediterranean, Juan de Fuca).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranzoli, Laura; Best, Mairi; Chierici, Francesco; Embriaco, Davide; Galbraith, Nan; Heeseman, Martin; Kelley, Deborah; Pirenne, Benoit; Scofield, Oscar; Weller, Robert

2015-04-01

There is a need for tsunami modeling and early warning systems for near-source areas. For example this is a common public safety threat in the Mediterranean and Juan de Fuca/NE Pacific Coast of N.A.; Regions covered by the EMSO, OOI, and ONC ocean observatories. Through the CoopEUS international cooperation project, a number of environmental research infrastructures have come together to coordinate efforts on environmental challenges; this tsunami case study tackles one such challenge. There is a mutual need of tsunami event field data and modeling to deepen our experience in testing methodology and developing real-time data processing. Tsunami field data are already available for past events, part of this use case compares these for compatibility, gap analysis, and model groundtruthing. It also reviews sensors needed and harmonizes instrument settings. Sensor metadata and registries are compared, harmonized, and aligned. Data policies and access are also compared and assessed for gap analysis. Modelling algorithms are compared and tested against archived and real-time data. This case study will then be extended to other related tsunami data and model sources globally with similar geographic and seismic scenarios.

Size Matters: What Are the Characteristic Source Areas for Urban Planning Strategies?

PubMed Central

Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Wang, Chenghao

2016-01-01

Urban environmental measurements and observational statistics should reflect the properties generated over an adjacent area of adequate length where homogeneity is usually assumed. The determination of this characteristic source area that gives sufficient representation of the horizontal coverage of a sensing instrument or the fetch of transported quantities is of critical importance to guide the design and implementation of urban landscape planning strategies. In this study, we aim to unify two different methods for estimating source areas, viz. the statistical correlation method commonly used by geographers for landscape fragmentation and the mechanistic footprint model by meteorologists for atmospheric measurements. Good agreement was found in the intercomparison of the estimate of source areas by the two methods, based on 2-m air temperature measurement collected using a network of weather stations. The results can be extended to shed new lights on urban planning strategies, such as the use of urban vegetation for heat mitigation. In general, a sizable patch of landscape is required in order to play an effective role in regulating the local environment, proportional to the height at which stakeholders’ interest is mainly concerned. PMID:27832111

Numerical simulation of hydrothermal circulation in the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Paulson, K.M.

1990-01-01

Alternate conceptual models to explain near-surface heat-flow observations in the central Oregon Cascade Range involve (1) an extensive mid-crustal magmatic heat source underlying both the Quaternary arc and adjacent older rocks or (2) a narrower deep heat source which is flanked by a relatively shallow conductive heat-flow anomaly caused by regional ground-water flow (the lateral-flow model). Relative to the mid-crustal heat source model, the lateral-flow model suggests a more limited geothermal resource base, but a better-defined exploration target. We simulated ground-water flow and heat transport through two cross sections trending west from the Cascade range crest in order to explore the implications of the two models. The thermal input for the alternate conceptual models was simulated by varying the width and intensity of a basal heat-flow anomaly and, in some cases, by introducing shallower heat sources beneath the Quaternary arc. Near-surface observations in the Breitenbush Hot Springs area are most readily explained in terms of lateral heat transport by regional ground-water flow; however, the deep thermal structure still cannot be uniquely inferred. The sparser thermal data set from the McKenzie River area can be explained either in terms of deep regional ground-water flow or in terms of a conduction-dominated system, with ground-water flow essentially confined to Quaternary rocks and fault zones.

ESCOMPTE 2001: multi-scale modelling and experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousin, F.; Tulet, P.; Rosset, R.

2003-04-01

ESCOMPTE is a European pollution field experiment located in the Marseille / Fos-Berre area in the summer 2001.This Mediterranean area, with frequent pollution peaks, is characterized by a complex topography subject to sea breeze regimes, together with intense localized urban, industrial and biogenic sources. Four POI have been selected, the most significant being POI2a / b, a 6-day pollution episode extensively documented for dynamics, radiation, gas phase and aerosols, with surface measurements (including measurements at sea in the gulf of Genoa, on board instrumented ferries between Marseille and Corsica), 7 aircrafts, lidar, radar and constant-level flight balloon soundings. The two-way mesoscale model MESO-NH-C (MNH-C), with horizontal resolutions of 9 and 3 km and high vertical resolution (up to 40 levels in the first 2 km), embedded in the global CTM Mocage, has been run for all POIs, with a focus here on POI2b (June 24-27,2001), a typical high pollution episode. The multi-scale modelling system MNH-C+MOCAGE allows to simulate local and regional pollution issued from emission sources in the Marseille / Fos-Berre area as well as from remote sources (e.g. the Po Valley and / or western Mediterranean sources) and their associated transboundary pollution fluxes. Detailed dynamical, chemical and aerosol (both modal and sectional spectra with organics and inorganics) simulations generally favorably compare to surface(continental and on ships), lidar and along-flight aircraft measurements.

Modeling urban air pollution in Budapest using WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovács, Attila; Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Mészáros, Róbert

2017-04-01

Air pollution is a major problem for urban areas since the industrial revolution, including Budapest, the capital and largest city of Hungary. The main anthropogenic sources of air pollutants are industry, traffic and residential heating. In this study, we investigated the contribution of major industrial point sources to the urban air pollution in Budapest. We used the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical weather prediction system online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem, version 3.6).The model was configured with three nested domains with grid spacings of 15, 5 and 1 km, representing Central Europe, the Carpathian Basin and Budapest with its surrounding area. Emission data was obtained from the National Environmental Information System. The point source emissions were summed in their respective cells in the second nested domain according to latitude-longitude coordinates. The main examined air pollutants were carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), from which the secondary compound, ozone (O3) forms through chemical reactions. Simulations were performed under different weather conditions and compared to observations from the automatic monitoring site of the Hungarian Air Quality Network. Our results show that the industrial emissions have a relatively weak role in the urban background air pollution, confirming the effect of industrial developments and regulations in the recent decades. However, a few significant industrial sources and their impact area has been demonstrated.

Application of an integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling tool for source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants for air quality management: A case study in the urban area of Benxi, China.

PubMed

Wu, Hao; Zhang, Yan; Yu, Qi; Ma, Weichun

2018-04-01

In this study, the authors endeavored to develop an effective framework for improving local urban air quality on meso-micro scales in cities in China that are experiencing rapid urbanization. Within this framework, the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling system was applied to simulate the concentration distributions of typical pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm [PM 10 ], sulfur dioxide [SO 2 ], and nitrogen oxides [NO x ]) in the urban area of Benxi. Statistical analyses were performed to verify the credibility of this simulation, including the meteorological fields and concentration fields. The sources were then categorized using two different classification methods (the district-based and type-based methods), and the contributions to the pollutant concentrations from each source category were computed to provide a basis for appropriate control measures. The statistical indexes showed that CALMET had sufficient ability to predict the meteorological conditions, such as the wind fields and temperatures, which provided meteorological data for the subsequent CALPUFF run. The simulated concentrations from CALPUFF showed considerable agreement with the observed values but were generally underestimated. The spatial-temporal concentration pattern revealed that the maximum concentrations tended to appear in the urban centers and during the winter. In terms of their contributions to pollutant concentrations, the districts of Xihu, Pingshan, and Mingshan all affected the urban air quality to different degrees. According to the type-based classification, which categorized the pollution sources as belonging to the Bengang Group, large point sources, small point sources, and area sources, the source apportionment showed that the Bengang Group, the large point sources, and the area sources had considerable impacts on urban air quality. Finally, combined with the industrial characteristics, detailed control measures were proposed with which local policy makers could improve the urban air quality in Benxi. In summary, the results of this study showed that this framework has credibility for effectively improving urban air quality, based on the source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants. The authors endeavored to build up an effective framework based on the integrated WRF/CALPUFF to improve the air quality in many cities on meso-micro scales in China. Via this framework, the integrated modeling tool is accurately used to study the characteristics of meteorological fields, concentration fields, and source apportionments of pollutants in target area. The impacts of classified sources on air quality together with the industrial characteristics can provide more effective control measures for improving air quality. Through the case study, the technical framework developed in this study, particularly the source apportionment, could provide important data and technical support for policy makers to assess air pollution on the scale of a city in China or even the world.

The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; White, Amanda M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2013-06-04

The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihoodmore » to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.« less

Statistical interpretation of pollution data from satellites. [for levels distribution over metropolitan area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, G. L.; Green, R. N.; Young, G. R.

1974-01-01

The NIMBUS-G environmental monitoring satellite has an instrument (a gas correlation spectrometer) onboard for measuring the mass of a given pollutant within a gas volume. The present paper treats the problem: How can this type measurement be used to estimate the distribution of pollutant levels in a metropolitan area. Estimation methods are used to develop this distribution. The pollution concentration caused by a point source is modeled as a Gaussian plume. The uncertainty in the measurements is used to determine the accuracy of estimating the source strength, the wind velocity, diffusion coefficients and source location.

SPARROW models used to understand nutrient sources in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.

2013-01-01

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. To describe where and from what sources those loads originate, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were constructed for the MARB using geospatial datasets for 2002, including inputs from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and calibration sites throughout the MARB. Previous studies found that highest N and P yields were from the north-central part of the MARB (Corn Belt). Based on the MARB SPARROW models, highest N yields were still from the Corn Belt but centered over Iowa and Indiana, and highest P yields were widely distributed throughout the center of the MARB. Similar to that found in other studies, agricultural inputs were found to be the largest N and P sources throughout most of the MARB: farm fertilizers were the largest N source, whereas farm fertilizers, manure, and urban inputs were dominant P sources. The MARB models enable individual N and P sources to be defined at scales ranging from SPARROW catchments (∼50 km2) to the entire area of the MARB. Inputs of P from WWTPs and urban areas were more important than found in most other studies. Information from this study will help to reduce nutrient loading from the MARB by providing managers with a description of where each of the sources of N and P are most important, thus providing a basis for prioritizing management actions and ultimately reducing the extent of Gulf hypoxia.

Evidence for Infrared-faint Radio Sources as z > 1 Radio-loud Active Galactic Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, Minh T.; Norris, Ray P.; Siana, Brian; Middelberg, Enno

2010-02-01

Infrared-Faint Radio Sources (IFRSs) are a class of radio objects found in the Australia Telescope Large Area Survey which have no observable mid-infrared counterpart in the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic (SWIRE) survey. The extended Chandra Deep Field South now has even deeper Spitzer imaging (3.6-70 μm) from a number of Legacy surveys. We report the detections of two IFRS sources in IRAC images. The non-detection of two other IFRSs allows us to constrain the source type. Detailed modeling of the spectral energy distribution of these objects shows that they are consistent with high-redshift (z >~ 1) active galactic nuclei.

EVIDENCE FOR INFRARED-FAINT RADIO SOURCES AS z > 1 RADIO-LOUD ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huynh, Minh T.; Norris, Ray P.; Siana, Brian

2010-02-10

Infrared-Faint Radio Sources (IFRSs) are a class of radio objects found in the Australia Telescope Large Area Survey which have no observable mid-infrared counterpart in the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic (SWIRE) survey. The extended Chandra Deep Field South now has even deeper Spitzer imaging (3.6-70 {mu}m) from a number of Legacy surveys. We report the detections of two IFRS sources in IRAC images. The non-detection of two other IFRSs allows us to constrain the source type. Detailed modeling of the spectral energy distribution of these objects shows that they are consistent with high-redshift (z {approx}> 1) active galactic nuclei.

The importance of source configuration in quantifying footprints of regional atmospheric sulphur deposition.

PubMed

Vieno, M; Dore, A J; Bealey, W J; Stevenson, D S; Sutton, M A

2010-01-15

An atmospheric transport-chemistry model is applied to investigate the effects of source configuration in simulating regional sulphur deposition footprints from elevated point sources. Dry and wet depositions of sulphur are calculated for each of the 69 largest point sources in the UK. Deposition contributions for each point source are calculated for 2003, as well as for a 2010 emissions scenario. The 2010 emissions scenario has been chosen to simulate the Gothenburg protocol emission scenario. Point source location is found to be a major driver of the dry/wet deposition ratio for each deposition footprint, with increased precipitation scavenging of SO(x) in hill areas resulting in a larger fraction of the emitted sulphur being deposited within the UK for sources located near these areas. This reduces exported transboundary pollution, but, associated with the occurrence of sensitive soils in hill areas, increases the domestic threat of soil acidification. The simulation of plume rise using individual stack parameters for each point source demonstrates a high sensitivity of SO(2) surface concentration to effective source height. This emphasises the importance of using site-specific information for each major stack, which is rarely included in regional atmospheric pollution models, due to the difficulty in obtaining the required input data. The simulations quantify how the fraction of emitted SO(x) exported from the UK increases with source magnitude, effective source height and easterly location. The modelled reduction in SO(x) emissions, between 2003 and 2010 resulted in a smaller fraction being exported, with the result that the reductions in SO(x) deposition to the UK are less than proportionate to the emission reduction. This non-linearity is associated with a relatively larger fraction of the SO(2) being converted to sulphate aerosol for the 2010 scenario, in the presence of ammonia. The effect results in less-than-proportional UK benefits of reducing in SO(2) emissions, together with greater-than-proportional benefits in reducing export of UK SO(2) emissions. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Next Generation Emission Measurements for Fugitive, Area Source, and Fence Line Applications?

EPA Science Inventory

Next generation emissions measurements (NGEM) is an EPA term for the rapidly advancing field of air pollutant sensor technologies, data integration concepts, and associated geospatial modeling strategies for source emissions measurements. Ranging from low coat sensors to satelli...

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

Analyzing source apportioned methane in northern California during Discover-AQ-CA using airborne measurements and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Matthew S.; Yates, Emma L.; Iraci, Laura T.; Loewenstein, Max; Tadić, Jovan M.; Wecht, Kevin J.; Jeong, Seongeun; Fischer, Marc L.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were ∼5.30 Gg day-1 (Gg = 1.0 × 109 g) (equating to ∼1.90 × 103 Gg yr-1) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes ∼30% of total CH4 emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 mixing ratios over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 mixing ratios in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) = -5.2% and linear regression slope = 0.20). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when large amounts of CH4 were measured over local emission sources and atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios reached values >2.5 parts per million. Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California.

Analyzing source apportioned methane in northern California during Discover-AQ-CA using airborne measurements and model simulations

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Matthew S.; Yates, Emma L.; Iraci, Laura T.; ...

2014-12-01

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH 4) emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH 4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH 4 emissions were ~5.30 Gg day –1 (Ggmore » = 1.0 × 10 9 g) (equating to ~1.90 × 10 3 Gg yr –1) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes ~30% of total CH 4 emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH 4 mixing ratios over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH 4 mixing ratios in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) = –5.2% and linear regression slope = 0.20). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when large amounts of CH 4 were measured over local emission sources and atmospheric CH 4 mixing ratios reached values >2.5 parts per million. Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH 4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH 4 emissions in California.« less

Simulation of agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan by using SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Linan; Zuo, Jiane; Liu, Fenglin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Cao, Qiguang

2018-02-01

This paper evaluated the applicability of using SWAT to access agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan area. In order to build the model, DEM, soil sort and land use map, climate monitoring data were collected as basic database. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the SWAT was carried out using streamflow, suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen records from 2009 to 2011. Errors, coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were considered to evaluate the applicability. The coefficient of determination were 0.96, 0.66, 0.55 and 0.66 for streamflow, SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.93, 0.5, 0.52 and 0.63, respectively. The results all meet the requirements. It suggested that the SWAT model can simulate the study area.

[Numerical simulation study of SOA in Pearl River Delta region].

PubMed

Cheng, Yan-li; Li, Tian-tian; Bai, Yu-hua; Li, Jin-long; Liu, Zhao-rong; Wang, Xue-song

2009-12-01

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) is an important component of the atmospheric particle pollution, thus, determining the status and sources of SOA pollution is the premise of deeply understanding the occurrence, development law and the influence factors of the atmospheric particle pollution. Based on the pollution sources and meteorological data of Pearl River Delta region, the study used the two-dimensional model coupled with SOA module to stimulate the status and source of SOA pollution in regional scale. The results show: the generation of SOA presents obvious characteristics of photochemical reaction, and the high concentration appears at about 14:00; SOA concentration is high in some areas of Guangshou and Dongguan with large pollution source-emission, and it is also high in some areas of Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Jiangmen which are at downwind position of Guangzhou and Dongguan. Contribution ratios of several main pollution sources to SOA are: biogenic sources 72.6%, mobile sources 30.7%, point sources 12%, solvent and oil paint sources 12%, surface sources less than 5% respectively.

Using Passive Sampling to Asses Ozone Formation in Sparsely Monitored Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, C. M.; Mainord, J.; George, L. A.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3), a secondary pollutant, is detrimental to both human health and the environment. O3 is formed from nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds, (VOC's) in the presence of sunlight. Hermiston is a low population rural city in Oregon (17,707), where O3 levels are expected to be minimal. However, Hermiston has recently experienced elevated O3 concentrations, approaching EPA levels of non-attainment. These levels were not predicted by airshed modeling of the region, suggesting that precursor emissions are not adequately represented in the model. Due to the limited monitoring in the area, there are no measurements of precursors in the region. In this study, passive Ogawa samplers were used to measure NOx and O3 levels at twenty sites in the area. The concentrations were then mapped in conjunction with wind trajectories derived from HYSPLIT and compared to NOx point sources attained from the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The measurement campaign revealed areas of elevated NOx concentrations that were not accounted for in the airshed model. Further exploration is needed to identify these sources. This study lays groundwork for the use of passive sampling to ground-truth airshed models in the absence of monitoring networks.

Exploring the Differences Between the European (SHARE) and the Reference Italian Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visini, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.; Rovida, A.; Stucchi, M.

2014-12-01

The recent release of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Europe by the SHARE project (Giardini et al., 2013, www.share-eu.org) arises questions about the comparison between its results for Italy and the official Italian seismic hazard model (MPS04; Stucchi et al., 2011) adopted by the building code. The goal of such a comparison is identifying the main input elements that produce the differences between the two models. It is worthwhile to remark that each PSHA is realized with data and knowledge available at the time of the release. Therefore, even if a new model provides estimates significantly different from the previous ones that does not mean that old models are wrong, but probably that the current knowledge is strongly changed and improved. Looking at the hazard maps with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (adopted as the standard input in the Italian building code), the SHARE model shows increased expected values with respect to the MPS04 model, up to 70% for PGA. However, looking in detail at all output parameters of both the models, we observe a different behaviour for other spectral accelerations. In fact, for spectral periods greater than 0.3 s, the current reference PSHA for Italy proposes higher values than the SHARE model for many and large areas. This observation suggests that this behaviour could not be due to a different definition of seismic sources and relevant seismicity rates; it mainly seems the result of the adoption of recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that estimate higher values for PGA and for accelerations with periods lower than 0.3 s and lower values for higher periods with respect to old GMPEs. Another important set of tests consisted in analysing separately the PSHA results obtained by the three source models adopted in SHARE (i.e., area sources, fault sources with background, and a refined smoothed seismicity model), whereas MPS04 only uses area sources. Results seem to confirm the strong impact of the new generation GMPEs on the seismic hazard estimates. Giardini D. et al., 2013. Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE): Online Data Resource, doi:10.12686/SED-00000001-SHARE. Stucchi M. et al., 2011. Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 1885-1911.

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

PubMed

Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

2007-12-07

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

Modelling Seasonally Freezing Ground Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-05-01

used as the ’snow input’ in the larger hydrological models, e.g. Pangburn (1987). The most advanced index model is Anderson’s (1973) model. This bases...source as the soils) is shown in figures 32 and 33. Table 10 shows the percentage areas of Hydrologic Soil Groups, Land Use and Slope Distribution for...C") z c~cu CYa) 65 table 10: Percentage areas of Hydrologic Soil Grouos, Land Use and Slope Distribution over W3 (?Pn!ke e: al., 1978) Parameter

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

PubMed

Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

2017-01-01

The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

PubMed Central

Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

2017-01-01

The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario. PMID:28141866

Developing a Dynamic SPARROW Water Quality Decision Support System Using NASA Remotely-Sensed Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Smith, R. A.; Hoos, A.; Schwarz, G. E.; Alexander, R. B.; Crosson, W. L.; Srikishen, J.; Estes, M., Jr.; Cruise, J.; Al-Hamdan, A.; Ellenburg, W. L., II; Flores, A.; Sanford, W. E.; Zell, W.; Reitz, M.; Miller, M. P.; Journey, C. A.; Befus, K. M.; Swann, R.; Herder, T.; Sherwood, E.; Leverone, J.; Shelton, M.; Smith, E. T.; Anastasiou, C. J.; Seachrist, J.; Hughes, A.; Graves, D.

2017-12-01

The USGS Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) surface water quality modeling system has been widely used for long term, steady state water quality analysis. However, users have increasingly requested a dynamic version of SPARROW that can provide seasonal estimates of nutrients and suspended sediment to receiving waters. The goal of this NASA-funded project is to develop a dynamic decision support system to enhance the southeast SPARROW water quality model and finer-scale dynamic models for selected coastal watersheds through the use of remotely-sensed data and other NASA Land Information System (LIS) products. The spatial and temporal scale of satellite remote sensing products and LIS modeling data make these sources ideal for the purposes of development and operation of the dynamic SPARROW model. Remote sensing products including MODIS vegetation indices, SMAP surface soil moisture, and OMI atmospheric chemistry along with LIS-derived evapotranspiration (ET) and soil temperature and moisture products will be included in model development and operation. MODIS data will also be used to map annual land cover/land use in the study areas and in conjunction with Landsat and Sentinel to identify disturbed areas that might be sources of sediment and increased phosphorus loading through exposure of the bare soil. These data and others constitute the independent variables in a regression analysis whose dependent variables are the water quality constituents total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment. Remotely-sensed variables such as vegetation indices and ET can be proxies for nutrient uptake by vegetation; MODIS Leaf Area Index can indicate sources of phosphorus from vegetation; soil moisture and temperature are known to control rates of denitrification; and bare soil areas serve as sources of enhanced nutrient and sediment production. The enhanced SPARROW dynamic models will provide improved tools for end users to manage water quality in near real time and for the formulation of future scenarios to inform strategic planning. Time-varying SPARROW outputs will aid water managers in decision making regarding allocation of resources in protecting aquatic habitats, planning for harmful algal blooms, and restoration of degraded habitats, stream segments, or lakes.

Survey of possibility for volcanic energy development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1990-03-01

Volcanic areas, clarification of heat source structure, evaluation of resources and problems on utilization techniques were arranged to search the possibility of future volcanic heat source. It is necessary to improve the exploration accuracy by combining geophysical exploration with geological and geochemical surveys in order to explorate a magma reservoir. Especially, seismic exploration is effective. The surveying procedure is as follows: confirmation of magma existence and grasping the whole image, evaluation of resources, clarification of three-dimensional distribution of magma in a promising area, and heat structure survey by heat flow measurement and others to construct more accurate model for resources. This model is verified finally by practical drilling. Promising areas which are worthy of development, are active volcanic areas in Kyushu, Hakkoda nad Hokkaido. It is desirable to make drilling to the depth of 3 km or magma reservoir to develop the future heat source. It is also required to improve the thermal resistance and corrosion resistance of materials to be used. Heat extraction by a single well is most realistic and the closed coaxial double pipe heat exchanger or open heat exchanger in the well will be used to improve the extraction.

Effects of variable regolith depth, hydraulic properties, and rainfall on debris-flow initiation during the September 2013 northern Colorado Front Range rainstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Kean, J. W.; Jones, E. S.; Godt, J.

2015-12-01

Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m. Typical values of saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils and regolith units mapped in the source areas range from about 10-4 - 10-6 m/s, with a median value of 2.8 x 10-5 m/s based on number of source areas in each map unit. Rainfall intensities varied spatially and temporally, from 0 to 2.5 x 10-5 m/s (90 mm/hour), with two periods of relatively heavy rainfall on September 12 - 13. The distribution of debris flows appears to correlate with total storm rainfall, and reported times of greatest landslide activity coincide with times of heaviest rainfall. Process-based models of rainfall infiltration and slope stability (TRIGRS) representing the observed ranges of regolith depth, hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity, provide additional insights about the timing and distribution of debris flows from this storm. For example, small debris flows from shallower source areas (<2 m) occurred late on September 11 and in the early morning of September 12, whereas large debris flows from deeper (3 - 5 m) source areas in the western part of the affected area occurred late on September 12. Timing of these flows can be understood in terms of the time required for pore pressure rise depending on regolith depth and rainfall intensity. The variable hydraulic properties combined with variable regolith depth and slope angles account for much of the observed range in timing in areas of similar rainfall intensity and duration. Modeling indicates that the greatest and most rapid pore pressure rise likely occurred in areas of highest rainfall intensity and amount. This is consistent with the largest numbers of debris flows occurring on steep canyon walls in areas of high total storm rainfall.

Receptor modeling for source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban atmosphere.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Malik, Amrita; Kumar, Ranjan; Saxena, Puneet; Sinha, Sarita

2008-01-01

This study reports source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in particulate depositions on vegetation foliages near highway in the urban environment of Lucknow city (India) using the principal components analysis/absolute principal components scores (PCA/APCS) receptor modeling approach. The multivariate method enables identification of major PAHs sources along with their quantitative contributions with respect to individual PAH. The PCA identified three major sources of PAHs viz. combustion, vehicular emissions, and diesel based activities. The PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach revealed that the combustion sources (natural gas, wood, coal/coke, biomass) contributed 19-97% of various PAHs, vehicular emissions 0-70%, diesel based sources 0-81% and other miscellaneous sources 0-20% of different PAHs. The contributions of major pyrolytic and petrogenic sources to the total PAHs were 56 and 42%, respectively. Further, the combustion related sources contribute major fraction of the carcinogenic PAHs in the study area. High correlation coefficient (R2 > 0.75 for most PAHs) between the measured and predicted concentrations of PAHs suggests for the applicability of the PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach for estimation of source contribution to the PAHs in particulates.

Modeling measured glottal volume velocity waveforms.

PubMed

Verneuil, Andrew; Berry, David A; Kreiman, Jody; Gerratt, Bruce R; Ye, Ming; Berke, Gerald S

2003-02-01

The source-filter theory of speech production describes a glottal energy source (volume velocity waveform) that is filtered by the vocal tract and radiates from the mouth as phonation. The characteristics of the volume velocity waveform, the source that drives phonation, have been estimated, but never directly measured at the glottis. To accomplish this measurement, constant temperature anemometer probes were used in an in vivo canine constant pressure model of phonation. A 3-probe array was positioned supraglottically, and an endoscopic camera was positioned subglottically. Simultaneous recordings of airflow velocity (using anemometry) and glottal area (using stroboscopy) were made in 3 animals. Glottal airflow velocities and areas were combined to produce direct measurements of glottal volume velocity waveforms. The anterior and middle parts of the glottis contributed significantly to the volume velocity waveform, with less contribution from the posterior part of the glottis. The measured volume velocity waveforms were successfully fitted to a well-known laryngeal airflow model. A noninvasive measured volume velocity waveform holds promise for future clinical use.

INEEL Subregional Conceptual Model Report Volume 3: Summary of Existing Knowledge of Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on the Release of Contaminants to the Subsurface Environment from Waste Source Terms at the INEEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul L. Wichlacz

2003-09-01

This source-term summary document is intended to describe the current understanding of contaminant source terms and the conceptual model for potential source-term release to the environment at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), as presented in published INEEL reports. The document presents a generalized conceptual model of the sources of contamination and describes the general categories of source terms, primary waste forms, and factors that affect the release of contaminants from the waste form into the vadose zone and Snake River Plain Aquifer. Where the information has previously been published and is readily available, summaries of the inventorymore » of contaminants are also included. Uncertainties that affect the estimation of the source term release are also discussed where they have been identified by the Source Term Technical Advisory Group. Areas in which additional information are needed (i.e., research needs) are also identified.« less

Minor and trace element geochemistry of volcanic rocks dredged from the Galapagos spreading center: role of crystal fractionation and mantle heterogeneity.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clague, D.A.; Frey, F.A.; Thompson, G.; Rindge, S.

1981-01-01

A wide range of rock types (abyssal tholeiite, Fe-Ti-rich basalt, andesite, and rhyodacite) were dredged from near 95oW and 85oW on the Galapagos spreading center. Computer modeling of major element compositions has shown that these rocks could be derived from common parental magmas by successive degrees of fractional crystallization. However, the P2O5/K2O ratio implies distinct mantle source compositions for the two areas. These source regions also have different rare earth element (REE) abundance patterns. The sequence of fractionated lavas differs for the two areas and indicates earlier fractionation of apatite and titanomagnetite in the lavas from 95oW. The mantle source regions for these two areas are interpreted to be depleted in incompatible (and volatile?) elements, although the source region beneath 95oW is less severely depleted in La and K. -Authors

A new framework for modeling urban land expansion in peri-urban area by combining multi-source datasets and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Xiao, R.; Li, X.

2015-12-01

Peri-urban area is a new type region under the impacts of both rural Industrialization and the radiation of metropolitan during rapid urbanization. Due to its complex natural and social characteristics and unique development patterns, many problems such as environmental pollution and land use waste emerged, which became an urgent issue to be addressed. Study area in this paper covers three typical peri-urban districts (Pudong, Fengxian and Jinshan), which around the Shanghai inner city. By coupling cellular automata and multi-agent system model as the basic tools, this research focus on modelling the urban land expansion and driving mechanism in peri-urban area. The big data is aslo combined with the Bayesian maximum entropy method (BME) for spatiotemporal prediction of multi-source data, which expand the dataset of urban expansion models. Data assimilation method is used to optimize the parameters of the coupling model and minimize the uncertainty of observations, improving the precision of future simulation in peri-urban area. By setting quantitative parameters, the coupling model can effectively improve the simulation of the process of urban land expansion under different policies and management schemes, in order to provide scientificimplications for new urbanization strategy. In this research, we precise the urban land expansion simulation and prediction for peri-urban area, expand the scopes and selections of data acquisition measurements and methods, develop the new applications of the data assimilation method in geographical science, provide a new idea for understanding the inherent rules of urban land expansion, and give theoretical and practical support for the peri-urban area in urban planning and decision making.

Modeling Trip Duration for Mobile Source Emissions Forecasting

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-01

The distribution of the duration of trips in a metropolitan area is an important input to estimating area-wide running loss emissions, operating mode fractions and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) accumulated on local roads in the region. In the current...

Effects of changes in pumping on regional groundwater-flow paths, 2005 and 2010, and areas contributing recharge to discharging wells, 1990–2010, in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Goode, Daniel J.

2017-06-06

A previously developed regional groundwater flow model was used to simulate the effects of changes in pumping rates on groundwater-flow paths and extent of recharge discharging to wells for a contaminated fractured bedrock aquifer in southeastern Pennsylvania. Groundwater in the vicinity of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, was found to be contaminated with organic compounds, such as trichloroethylene (TCE), in 1979. At the time contamination was discovered, groundwater from the underlying fractured bedrock (shale) aquifer was the main source of supply for public drinking water and industrial use. As part of technical support to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during the Remedial Investigation of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site from 2000 to 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model of regional groundwater flow to describe changes in groundwater flow and contaminant directions as a result of changes in pumping. Subsequently, large decreases in TCE concentrations (as much as 400 micrograms per liter) were measured in groundwater samples collected by the EPA from selected wells in 2010 compared to 2005‒06 concentrations.To provide insight on the fate of potentially contaminated groundwater during the period of generally decreasing pumping rates from 1990 to 2010, steady-state simulations were run using the previously developed groundwater-flow model for two conditions prior to extensive remediation, 1990 and 2000, two conditions subsequent to some remediation 2005 and 2010, and a No Pumping case, representing pre-development or cessation of pumping conditions. The model was used to (1) quantify the amount of recharge, including potentially contaminated recharge from sources near the land surface, that discharged to wells or streams and (2) delineate the areas contributing recharge that discharged to wells or streams for the five conditions.In all simulations, groundwater divides differed from surface-water divides, partly because of differences in stream elevations and because of geologic structure and pumping. In the 1990 and 2000 simulations, all recharge in and near the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 discharged to wells, but in the 2005 and 2010 simulations some recharge in this area discharged to streams, indicating possible discharge of contaminated groundwater from North Penn Area 7 sources to streams. As the amount of groundwater withdrawals by wells has declined since 1990, the area contributing recharge to wells in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 has decreased.To determine the effect of changes in pumping on flow paths and possible flow-path-related contributions to the observed changes in spatial distribution of contaminants in groundwater from 2005 to 2010, the USGS conducted simulations using the previously developed regional groundwater-flow model using reported pumping and estimated recharge rates for 2005 and 2010. Flow paths from recharge at known contaminant source areas to discharge locations at wells or streams were simulated under steady-state conditions for the two periods. Simulated groundwater-flow paths shifted only slightly from 2005 to 2010 as a result of changes in pumping rates. These slight changes in groundwater-flow paths from known sources of contamination are not coincident with the spatial distribution of observed changes in TCE concentrations from 2005 to 2010, indicating that the decreases of TCE concentrations may be a result of other processes, such as source removal or degradation. Results of the simulations and the absence of increases in TCE-degradation-product concentrations indicate that the decreases of TCE concentrations observed in 2010 may be at least partly related to contaminant-source removal by soil excavation completed in 2005, although additional data would be needed to confirm this preliminary explanation.

Combining measurements and modelling to quantify the contribution of atmospheric fallout, local industry and road traffic to PAH stocks in contrasting catchments.

PubMed

Gateuille, David; Evrard, Olivier; Lefevre, Irène; Moreau-Guigon, Elodie; Alliot, Fabrice; Chevreuil, Marc; Mouchel, Jean-Marie

2014-06-01

Various sources supply PAHs that accumulate in soils. The methodology we developed provided an evaluation of the contribution of local sources (road traffic, local industries) versus remote sources (long range atmospheric transport, fallout and gaseous exchanges) to PAH stocks in two contrasting subcatchments (46-614 km²) of the Seine River basin (France). Soil samples (n = 336) were analysed to investigate the spatial pattern of soil contamination across the catchments and an original combination with radionuclide measurements provided new insights into the evolution of the contamination with depth. Relationships between PAH concentrations and the distance to the potential sources were modelled. Despite both subcatchments are mainly rural, roadside areas appeared to concentrate 20% of the contamination inside the catchment while a local industry was found to be responsible for up to 30% of the stocks. Those results have important implications for understanding and controlling PAH contamination in rural areas of early-industrialized regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

PubMed Central

Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

2017-01-01

Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened. PMID:28106048

REXPO: A catchment model designed to understand and simulate the loss dynamics of plant protection products and biocides from agricultural and urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittmer, I. K.; Bader, H.-P.; Scheidegger, R.; Stamm, C.

2016-02-01

During rain events, biocides and plant protection products are transported from agricultural fields but also from urban sources to surface waters. Originally designed to be biologically active, these compounds may harm organisms in aquatic ecosystems. Although several models allow either urban or agricultural storm events to be predicted, only few combine these two sources, and none of them include biocide losses from building envelopes. This study therefore aims to develop a model designed to predict water and substance flows from urban and agricultural sources to surface waters. We developed a model based on physical principles for water percolation and substance flow including micro- (also called matrix-) and macropore-flows for the agricultural areas together with a model representing sources, sewer systems and a wastewater treatment plant for urban areas. In a second step, the combined model was applied to a catchment where an extensive field study had been conducted. The modelled and measured discharge and compound results corresponded reasonably well in terms of quantity and dynamics. The total cumulative discharge was only slightly lower than the total measured discharge (factor 0.94). The total modelled losses of the agriculturally used herbicide atrazine were slightly lower (∼25%) than the measured losses when the soil pore water distribution coefficient (describing the partition between soil particles and pore water) (Kd) was kept constant and slightly higher if it was increased with time. The modelled urban losses of diuron from facades were within a factor of three with respect to the measured values. The results highlighted the change in importance of the flow components during a rain event from urban sources during the most intensive rain period towards agricultural ones over a prolonged time period. Applications to two other catchments, one neighbouring and one on another continent showed that the model can be applied using site specific data for land use, pesticide application, weather and literature data for soil related parameters such as saturated water content, hydraulic conductivity or lateral distances of the drainage pipes without any further calibration of parameters. This is a promising basis for using the model in a wide range of catchments.

Burial history, thermal history and hydrocarbon generation modelling of the Jurassic source rocks in the basement of the Polish Carpathian Foredeep and Outer Carpathians (SE Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosakowski, Paweł; Wróbel, Magdalena

2012-08-01

Burial history, thermal maturity, and timing of hydrocarbon generation were modelled for the Jurassic source rocks in the basement of the Carpathian Foredeep and marginal part of the Outer Carpathians. The area of investigation was bounded to the west by Kraków, to the east by Rzeszów. The modelling was carried out in profiles of wells: Będzienica 2, Dębica 10K, Góra Ropczycka 1K, Goleszów 5, Nawsie 1, Pławowice E1 and Pilzno 40. The organic matter, containing gas-prone Type III kerogen with an admixture of Type II kerogen, is immature or at most, early mature to 0.7 % in the vitrinite reflectance scale. The highest thermal maturity is recorded in the south-eastern part of the study area, where the Jurassic strata are buried deeper. The thermal modelling showed that the obtained organic matter maturity in the initial phase of the "oil window" is connected with the stage of the Carpathian overthrusting. The numerical modelling indicated that the onset of hydrocarbon generation from the Middle Jurassic source rocks was also connected with the Carpathian thrust belt. The peak of hydrocarbon generation took place in the orogenic stage of the overthrusting. The amount of generated hydrocarbons is generally small, which is a consequence of the low maturity and low transformation degree of kerogen. The generated hydrocarbons were not expelled from their source rock. An analysis of maturity distribution and transformation degree of the Jurassic organic matter shows that the best conditions for hydrocarbon generation occurred most probably in areas deeply buried under the Outer Carpathians. It is most probable that the "generation kitchen" should be searched for there.

Independent component analysis of EEG dipole source localization in resting and action state of brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almurshedi, Ahmed; Ismail, Abd Khamim

2015-04-01

EEG source localization was studied in order to determine the location of the brain sources that are responsible for the measured potentials at the scalp electrodes using EEGLAB with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithm. Neuron source locations are responsible in generating current dipoles in different states of brain through the measured potentials. The current dipole sources localization are measured by fitting an equivalent current dipole model using a non-linear optimization technique with the implementation of standardized boundary element head model. To fit dipole models to ICA components in an EEGLAB dataset, ICA decomposition is performed and appropriate components to be fitted are selected. The topographical scalp distributions of delta, theta, alpha, and beta power spectrum and cross coherence of EEG signals are observed. In close eyes condition it shows that during resting and action states of brain, alpha band was activated from occipital (O1, O2) and partial (P3, P4) area. Therefore, parieto-occipital area of brain are active in both resting and action state of brain. However cross coherence tells that there is more coherence between right and left hemisphere in action state of brain than that in the resting state. The preliminary result indicates that these potentials arise from the same generators in the brain.

Visualization of Green's Function Anomalies for Megathrust Source in Nankai Trough by Reciprocity Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhin, A.; Miyakoshi, K.; Tsurugi, M.; Kawase, H.; Kamae, K.

2014-12-01

Effect of various areas (asperities or SMGA) in the source of a megathrust subduction zone earthquake on the simulated long-period ground motions is studied. For this case study we employed a source fault model proposed by HERP (2012) for future M9-class event in the Nankai trough. Velocity structure is 3-D JIVSM model developed for long-period ground motion simulations. The target site OSKH02 "Konohana" is located in center of the Osaka basin. Green's functions for large number of sub-sources (>1000) were calculated by FDM using the reciprocity approach. Depths, strike and dip angles of sub-sources are adjusted to the shape of upper boundary of the Philippine Sea plate. The target period range is 4-20sec. Strongly nonuniform distribution of peak amplitudes of Green's functions is observed (see Figure), and two areas have anomalously large amplitudes: (1) a large along-strike elongated area just south of Kii peninsula and (2) a similar area south of Kii peninsula but shifted toward the Nankai trough. Elongation of the first anomaly fits well 10-15km isolines of the depth distribution of the Philippine Sea plate, while target site is located in the direction perpendicular to these isolines. For this reason, preliminarily we suppose that plate shape may have critical effect on the simulated ground motions, via a cumulative effect of sub-source radiation patterns and specific strike and dip angle distributions. Analysis of the time delay of the peak arrivals at OKSH02 demonstrates that Green's functions from the second anomaly, located in shallow part of plate boundary, are mostly composed of surface waves.

A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

2013-08-01

A precondition for all disaster management steps, building damage prediction, and construction code developments is a hazard assessment that shows the exceedance probabilities of different ground motion levels at a site considering different near- and far-field earthquake sources. The seismic sources are usually categorized as time-independent area sources and time-dependent fault sources. While the earlier incorporates the small and medium events, the later takes into account only the large characteristic earthquakes. In this article, a probabilistic approach is proposed to aggregate the effects of time-dependent and time-independent sources on seismic hazard. The methodology is then applied to generate three probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for 10%, 5%, and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results indicate an increase in peak ground acceleration (PGA) values toward the southeastern part of the study area and the PGA variations are mostly controlled by the shear wave velocities across the city. In addition, the implementation of the methodology takes advantage of GIS capabilities especially raster-based analyses and representations. During the estimation of the PGA exceedance rates, the emphasis has been placed on incorporating the effects of different attenuation relationships and seismic source models by using a logic tree.

Three-dimensional ground-motion simulations of earthquakes for the Hanford area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Thorne, Paul; Rohay, Alan

2014-01-01

This report describes the results of ground-motion simulations of earthquakes using three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) crustal models conducted for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Hanford facility, Washington, under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) guidelines. The first portion of this report demonstrates that the 3D seismic velocity model for the area produces synthetic seismograms with characteristics (spectral response values, duration) that better match those of the observed recordings of local earthquakes, compared to a 1D model with horizontal layers. The second part of the report compares the response spectra of synthetics from 3D and 1D models for moment magnitude (M) 6.6–6.8 earthquakes on three nearby faults and for a dipping plane wave source meant to approximate regional S-waves from a Cascadia great earthquake. The 1D models are specific to each site used for the PSHA. The use of the 3D model produces spectral response accelerations at periods of 0.5–2.0 seconds as much as a factor of 4.5 greater than those from the 1D models for the crustal fault sources. The spectral accelerations of the 3D synthetics for the Cascadia plane-wave source are as much as a factor of 9 greater than those from the 1D models. The differences between the spectral accelerations for the 3D and 1D models are most pronounced for sites with thicker supra-basalt sediments and for stations with earthquakes on the Rattlesnake Hills fault and for the Cascadia plane-wave source.

A Composite Source Model With Fractal Subevent Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Zahradnik, J.

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a pos- sible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock) . The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled as a finite source, using kinematic approach (radial rupture propagation, constant rupture velocity, boxcar slip-velocity function, with constant rise time on the subevent). The final slip at each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Variation of rise time with subevent size is a free parameter of modeling. The nucleation point of each subevent is taken as the point closest to mainshock hypocentre. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally lay- ered crustal model in a relatively coarse grid of points covering the fault plane. The Green's functions needed for the kinematic model in a fine grid are obtained by cu- bic spline interpolation. As different frequencies may be efficiently calculated with different sampling, the interpolation simplifies and speeds-up the procedure signifi- cantly. The composite source model described above allows interpretation in terms of a kinematic model with non-uniform final slip and rupture velocity spatial distribu- tions. The 1994 Northridge earthquake (Mw = 6.7) is used as a validation event. The strong-ground motion modeling of the 1999 Athens earthquake (Mw = 5.9) is also performed.

Disentangling the major source areas for an intense aerosol advection in the Central Mediterranean on the basis of Potential Source Contribution Function modeling of chemical and size distribution measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroselli, Chiara; Crocchianti, Stefano; Moroni, Beatrice; Castellini, Silvia; Selvaggi, Roberta; Nava, Silvia; Calzolai, Giulia; Lucarelli, Franco; Cappelletti, David

2018-05-01

In this paper, we combined a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis of daily chemical aerosol composition data with hourly aerosol size distributions with the aim to disentangle the major source areas during a complex and fast modulating advection event impacting on Central Italy in 2013. Chemical data include an ample set of metals obtained by Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), main soluble ions from ionic chromatography and elemental and organic carbon (EC, OC) obtained by thermo-optical measurements. Size distributions have been recorded with an optical particle counter for eight calibrated size classes in the 0.27-10 μm range. We demonstrated the usefulness of the approach by the positive identification of two very different source areas impacting during the transport event. In particular, biomass burning from Eastern Europe and desert dust from Sahara sources have been discriminated based on both chemistry and size distribution time evolution. Hourly BT provided the best results in comparison to 6 h or 24 h based calculations.

A geostatistical approach for quantification of contaminant mass discharge uncertainty using multilevel sampler measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, K. Betty; Goovaerts, Pierre; Abriola, Linda M.

2007-06-01

Contaminant mass discharge across a control plane downstream of a dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zone has great potential to serve as a metric for the assessment of the effectiveness of source zone treatment technologies and for the development of risk-based source-plume remediation strategies. However, too often the uncertainty of mass discharge estimated in the field is not accounted for in the analysis. In this paper, a geostatistical approach is proposed to estimate mass discharge and to quantify its associated uncertainty using multilevel transect measurements of contaminant concentration (C) and hydraulic conductivity (K). The approach adapts the p-field simulation algorithm to propagate and upscale the uncertainty of mass discharge from the local uncertainty models of C and K. Application of this methodology to numerically simulated transects shows that, with a regular sampling pattern, geostatistics can provide an accurate model of uncertainty for the transects that are associated with low levels of source mass removal (i.e., transects that have a large percentage of contaminated area). For high levels of mass removal (i.e., transects with a few hot spots and large areas of near-zero concentration), a total sampling area equivalent to 6˜7% of the transect is required to achieve accurate uncertainty modeling. A comparison of the results for different measurement supports indicates that samples taken with longer screen lengths may lead to less accurate models of mass discharge uncertainty. The quantification of mass discharge uncertainty, in the form of a probability distribution, will facilitate risk assessment associated with various remediation strategies.

The impact of runoff generation mechanisms on the location of critical source areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyon, S.W.; McHale, M.R.; Walter, M.T.; Steenhuis, T.S.

2006-01-01

Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes - saturation excess and infiltration excess - on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Jin; Yu, Yaming; Van Dyk, David A.

2014-10-20

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use amore » principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.« less

Relative importance of atmospheric and riverine mercury sources to the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Rice, Glenn E; Senn, David B; Shine, James P

2009-01-15

A box model was developed to quantify the major sources and dominant fates of inorganic mercury (Hg) in the Mississippi River-influenced area of the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM). Riverine (75%) and direct atmospheric deposition (25%) deliver 9.7 t Hg y(-1) to this productive fishery; most (80%) accumulates in bottom sediments where it can be methylated and enter foodwebs. Although riverine inputs dominate atmospheric deposition, 75% of the riverine sediment-associated Hg accumulates in only approximately 8% of the study area. Atmospheric deposition can explain most of the Hg accumulating in sediments of the remaining area. Considering the differences in temporal responsiveness of riverine (centuries) and atmospheric (years) Hg inputs to anthropogenic emissions changes, the spatial limits of the riverine Hg source andthe potential dominance of atmospheric deposition over large areas could have implications for the timing of benefits from policies reducing anthropogenic Hg emissions.

The 1977 emissions inventory for southeastern Virginia. [environment model of air quality based on exhaust emission from urban areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewer, D. A.; Remsberg, E. E.; Woodbury, G. E.; Quinn, L. C.

1979-01-01

Regional tropospheric air pollution modeling and data compilation to simulate the time variation of species concentrations in and around an urban area is discussed. The methods used to compile an emissions inventory are outlined. Emissions factors for vehicular travel in the urban area are presented along with an analysis of the emission gases. Emission sources other than vehicular including industrial wastes, residential solid waste disposal, aircraft emissions, and emissions from the railroads are investigated.

Modeling and analysis of CSAMT field source effect and its characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da, Lei; Xiaoping, Wu; Qingyun, Di; Gang, Wang; Xiangrong, Lv; Ruo, Wang; Jun, Yang; Mingxin, Yue

2016-02-01

Controlled-source audio-frequency magnetotellurics (CSAMT) has been a highly successful geophysical tool used in a variety of geological exploration studies for many years. However, due to the artificial source used in the CSAMT technique, two important factors are considered during interpretation: non-plane-wave or geometric effects and source overprint effects. Hence, in this paper we simulate the source overprint effects and analyzed the rule and characteristics of its influence on CSAMT applications. Two-dimensional modeling was carried out using an adaptive unstructured finite element method to simulate several typical models. Also, we summarized the characteristics and rule of the source overprint effects and analyzed its influence on the data taken over several mining areas. The results obtained from the study shows that the occurrence and strength of the source overprint effect is dependent on the location of the source dipole, in relation to the receiver and the subsurface geology. In order to avoid source overprint effects, three principle were suggested to determine the best location for the grounded dipole source in the field.

CFD MODELING OF FINE SCALE FLOW AND TRANSPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA, TEXAS

EPA Science Inventory

Fine scale modeling of flows and air quality in Houston, Texas is being performed; the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is being applied to investigate the influence of morphologic structures on the within-grid transport and dispersion of sources in grid models ...

Sources of fine particles in the South Coast area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Eugene; Turkiewicz, Katarzyna; Zulawnick, Sylvia A.; Magliano, Karen L.

2010-08-01

PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) speciation data collected between 2003 and 2005 at two United State Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Speciation Trends Network monitoring sites in the South Coast area, California were analyzed to identify major PM 2.5 sources as a part of the State Implementation Plan development. Eight and nine major PM 2.5 sources were identified in LA and Rubidoux, respectively, through PMF2 analyses. Similar to a previous study analyzing earlier data ( Kim and Hopke, 2007a), secondary particles contributed the most to the PM 2.5 concentrations: 53% in LA and 59% in Rubidoux. The next highest contributors were diesel emissions (11%) in LA and Gasoline vehicle emissions (10%) in Rubidoux. Most of the source contributions were lower than those from the earlier study. However, the average source contributions from airborne soil, sea salt, and aged sea salt in LA and biomass smoke in Rubidoux increased. To validate the apportioned sources in this study, PMF2 results were compared with those obtained from EPA PMF ( US EPA, 2005). Both models identified the same number of major sources and the resolved source profiles and contributions were similar at the two monitoring sites. The minor differences in the results caused by the differences in the least square algorithm and non-negativity constraints between two models did not affect the source identifications.

4D petroleum system model of the Mississippian System in the Anadarko Basin Province, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, Debra K.

2013-01-01

The Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Woodford Shale is an important petroleum source rock for Mississippian reservoirs in the Anadarko Basin Province of Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, based on results from a 4D petroleum system model of the basin. The Woodford Shale underlies Mississippian strata over most of the Anadarko Basin portions of Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. The Kansas and Colorado portions of the province are almost entirely thermally immature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale or potential Mississippian source rocks, based mainly on measured vitrinite reflectance and modeled thermal maturation. Thermal maturities of the Woodford Shale range from mature for oil to overmature for gas generation at present-day depths of about 5,000 to 20,000 ft. Oil generation began at burial depths of about 6,000 to 6,500 ft. Modeled onset of Woodford Shale oil generation was about 330 million years ago (Ma); peak oil generation was from 300 to 220 Ma.Mississippian production, including horizontal wells of the informal Mississippi limestone, is concentrated within and north of the Sooner Trend area in the northeast Oklahoma portion of the basin. This large pod of oil and gas production is within the area modeled as thermally mature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale. The southern boundary of the trend approximates the 99% transformation ratio of the Woodford Shale, which marks the end of oil generation. Because most of the Sooner Trend area is thermally mature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale, the trend probably includes short- and longer-distance vertical and lateral migration. The Woodford Shale is absent in the Mocane-Laverne Field area of the eastern Oklahoma panhandle; because of this, associated oil migrated from the south into the field. If the Springer Formation or deeper Mississippian strata generated oil, then the southern field area is within the oil window for associated petroleum source rocks. Mississippian fields along the western boundary of the study area were supplied by oil that flowed northward from the Panhandle Field area and westward from the deep basin.

A comparison of U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional model estimates of groundwater source areas and velocities to independently derived estimates, Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, Jason C.; Rousseau, Joseph P.; Bartholomay, Roy C.; Rattray, Gordon W.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, evaluated a three-dimensional model of groundwater flow in the fractured basalts and interbedded sediments of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory to determine if model-derived estimates of groundwater movement are consistent with (1) results from previous studies on water chemistry type, (2) the geochemical mixing at an example well, and (3) independently derived estimates of the average linear groundwater velocity. Simulated steady-state flow fields were analyzed using backward particle-tracking simulations that were based on a modified version of the particle tracking program MODPATH. Model results were compared to the 5-microgram-per-liter lithium contour interpreted to represent the transition from a water type that is primarily composed of tributary valley underflow and streamflow-infiltration recharge to a water type primarily composed of regional aquifer water. This comparison indicates several shortcomings in the way the model represents flow in the aquifer. The eastward movement of tributary valley underflow and streamflow-infiltration recharge is overestimated in the north-central part of the model area and underestimated in the central part of the model area. Model inconsistencies can be attributed to large contrasts in hydraulic conductivity between hydrogeologic zones. Sources of water at well NPR-W01 were identified using backward particle tracking, and they were compared to the relative percentages of source water chemistry determined using geochemical mass balance and mixing models. The particle tracking results compare reasonably well with the chemistry results for groundwater derived from surface-water sources (-28 percent error), but overpredict the proportion of groundwater derived from regional aquifer water (108 percent error) and underpredict the proportion of groundwater derived from tributary valley underflow from the Little Lost River valley (-74 percent error). These large discrepancies may be attributed to large contrasts in hydraulic conductivity between hydrogeologic zones and (or) a short-circuiting of underflow from the Little Lost River valley to an area of high hydraulic conductivity. Independently derived estimates of the average groundwater velocity at 12 well locations within the upper 100 feet of the aquifer were compared to model-derived estimates. Agreement between velocity estimates was good at wells with travel paths located in areas of sediment-rich rock (root-mean-square error [RMSE] = 5.2 feet per day [ft/d]) and poor in areas of sediment-poor rock (RMSE = 26.2 ft/d); simulated velocities in sediment-poor rock were 2.5 to 4.5 times larger than independently derived estimates at wells USGS 1 (less than 14 ft/d) and USGS 100 (less than 21 ft/d). The models overprediction of groundwater velocities in sediment-poor rock may be attributed to large contrasts in hydraulic conductivity and a very large, model-wide estimate of vertical anisotropy (14,800).

Flood evolution assessment and monitoring using hydrological modelling techniques: analysis of the inundation areas at a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podhoranyi, M.; Kuchar, S.; Portero, A.

2016-08-01

The primary objective of this study is to present techniques that cover usage of a hydrodynamic model as the main tool for monitoring and assessment of flood events while focusing on modelling of inundation areas. We analyzed the 2010 flood event (14th May - 20th May) that occurred in the Moravian-Silesian region (Czech Republic). Under investigation were four main catchments: Opava, Odra, Olše and Ostravice. Four hydrodynamic models were created and implemented into the Floreon+ platform in order to map inundation areas that arose during the flood event. In order to study the dynamics of the water, we applied an unsteady flow simulation for the entire area (HEC-RAS 4.1). The inundation areas were monitored, evaluated and recorded semi-automatically by means of the Floreon+ platform. We focused on information about the extent and presence of the flood areas. The modeled flooded areas were verified by comparing them with real data from different sources (official reports, aerial photos and hydrological networks). The study confirmed that hydrodynamic modeling is a very useful tool for mapping and monitoring of inundation areas. Overall, our models detected 48 inundation areas during the 2010 flood event.

Fusion of multi-source remote sensing data for agriculture monitoring tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Roger, J. C.; Becker Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Masek, J. G.; Murphy, E.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing data is essential source of information for enabling monitoring and quantification of crop state at global and regional scales. Crop mapping, state assessment, area estimation and yield forecasting are the main tasks that are being addressed within GEO-GLAM. Efficiency of agriculture monitoring can be improved when heterogeneous multi-source remote sensing datasets are integrated. Here, we present several case studies of utilizing MODIS, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data along with meteorological data (growing degree days - GDD) for winter wheat yield forecasting, mapping and area estimation. Archived coarse spatial resolution data, such as MODIS, VIIRS and AVHRR, can provide daily global observations that coupled with statistical data on crop yield can enable the development of empirical models for timely yield forecasting at national level. With the availability of high-temporal and high spatial resolution Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A imagery, course resolution empirical yield models can be downscaled to provide yield estimates at regional and field scale. In particular, we present the case study of downscaling the MODIS CMG based generalized winter wheat yield forecasting model to high spatial resolution data sets, namely harmonized Landsat-8 - Sentinel-2A surface reflectance product (HLS). Since the yield model requires corresponding in season crop masks, we propose an automatic approach to extract winter crop maps from MODIS NDVI and MERRA2 derived GDD using Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Validation for the state of Kansas (US) and Ukraine showed that the approach can yield accuracies > 90% without using reference (ground truth) data sets. Another application of yearly derived winter crop maps is their use for stratification purposes within area frame sampling for crop area estimation. In particular, one can simulate the dependence of error (coefficient of variation) on the number of samples and strata size. This approach was used for estimating the area of winter crops in Ukraine for 2013-2016. The GMM-GDD approach is further extended for HLS data to provide automatic winter crop mapping at 30 m resolution for crop yield model and area estimation. In case of persistent cloudiness, addition of Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is explored for automatic winter crop mapping.

[Geospatial models for local health surveillance].

PubMed

De Pietri, Diana Elba; García, Susana; Rico, Osvaldo

2008-06-01

To produce a geospatial model to evaluate lead exposure among school children from 6-8 years of age, in San Antonio Oeste, Rio Negro province, Argentina, an area contaminated by a foundry in the city center whose toxins were released into the open air. The spatial analysis conducted from October-April 2006 included satellite interpretation and mapping of the data to geographically plot the information. Residences on dirt roads were included, as was the distance for each of the study children's homes and/or schools to the site identified as the source of the exposure. Blood samples taken from children attending schools within the area surrounding the source showed higher lead levels than that of children in other areas. These lead levels were associated with the proximity to the source and/or with living on a dirt road. The highest blood lead levels corresponded to the higher environmental lead levels. Spatial analysis was shown to be a useful tool for site analysis and risk management since it indicated a definitive association between elevated lead levels and the proximity to the source, and/or residing on a dirt road, connections which had not been revealed with traditional epidemiological analyses. The results provided the scientific evidence needed to begin implementing interventions regarding the sources of exposure and education aimed at promoting more hygienic dietary habits among the population.

Application of the perfectly matched layer in 3-D marine controlled-source electromagnetic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gang; Li, Yuguo; Han, Bo; Liu, Zhan

2018-01-01

In this study, the complex frequency-shifted perfectly matched layer (CFS-PML) in stretching Cartesian coordinates is successfully applied to 3-D frequency-domain marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) field modelling. The Dirichlet boundary, which is usually used within the traditional framework of EM modelling algorithms, assumes that the electric or magnetic field values are zero at the boundaries. This requires the boundaries to be sufficiently far away from the area of interest. To mitigate the boundary artefacts, a large modelling area may be necessary even though cell sizes are allowed to grow toward the boundaries due to the diffusion of the electromagnetic wave propagation. Compared with the conventional Dirichlet boundary, the PML boundary is preferred as the modelling area of interest could be restricted to the target region and only a few absorbing layers surrounding can effectively depress the artificial boundary effect without losing the numerical accuracy. Furthermore, for joint inversion of seismic and marine CSEM data, if we use the PML for CSEM field simulation instead of the conventional Dirichlet, the modelling area for these two different geophysical data collected from the same survey area could be the same, which is convenient for joint inversion grid matching. We apply the CFS-PML boundary to 3-D marine CSEM modelling by using the staggered finite-difference discretization. Numerical test indicates that the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML also shows good accuracy compared to the Dirichlet. Furthermore, the modelling algorithm using the CFS-PML shows advantages in computational time and memory saving than that using the Dirichlet boundary. For the 3-D example in this study, the memory saving using the PML is nearly 42 per cent and the time saving is around 48 per cent compared to using the Dirichlet.

Network design for quantifying urban CO2 emissions: assessing trade-offs between precision and network density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Alexander J.; Shusterman, Alexis A.; McDonald, Brian C.; Teige, Virginia; Harley, Robert A.; Cohen, Ronald C.

2016-11-01

The majority of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are attributable to urban areas. While the emissions from urban electricity generation often occur in locations remote from consumption, many of the other emissions occur within the city limits. Evaluating the effectiveness of strategies for controlling these emissions depends on our ability to observe urban CO2 emissions and attribute them to specific activities. Cost-effective strategies for doing so have yet to be described. Here we characterize the ability of a prototype measurement network, modeled after the Berkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N) in California's Bay Area, in combination with an inverse model based on the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) to improve our understanding of urban emissions. The pseudo-measurement network includes 34 sites at roughly 2 km spacing covering an area of roughly 400 km2. The model uses an hourly 1 × 1 km2 emission inventory and 1 × 1 km2 meteorological calculations. We perform an ensemble of Bayesian atmospheric inversions to sample the combined effects of uncertainties of the pseudo-measurements and the model. We vary the estimates of the combined uncertainty of the pseudo-observations and model over a range of 20 to 0.005 ppm and vary the number of sites from 1 to 34. We use these inversions to develop statistical models that estimate the efficacy of the combined model-observing system in reducing uncertainty in CO2 emissions. We examine uncertainty in estimated CO2 fluxes on the urban scale, as well as for sources embedded within the city such as a line source (e.g., a highway) or a point source (e.g., emissions from the stacks of small industrial facilities). Using our inversion framework, we find that a dense network with moderate precision is the preferred setup for estimating area, line, and point sources from a combined uncertainty and cost perspective. The dense network considered here (modeled after the BEACO2N network with an assumed mismatch error of 1 ppm at an hourly temporal resolution) could estimate weekly CO2 emissions from an urban region with less than 5 % error, given our characterization of the combined observation and model uncertainty.

WELLHEAD ANALYTIC ELEMENT MODEL FOR WINDOWS

EPA Science Inventory

WhAEM2000 (wellhead analytic element model for Win 98/00/NT/XP) is a public domain, ground-water flow model designed to facilitate capture zone delineation and protection area mapping in support of the State's and Tribe's Wellhead Protection Programs (WHPP) and Source Water Asses...

Empirical Modeling Of Single-Event Upset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zoutendyk, John A.; Smith, Lawrence S.; Soli, George A.; Thieberger, Peter; Smith, Stephen L.; Atwood, Gregory E.

1988-01-01

Experimental study presents examples of empirical modeling of single-event upset in negatively-doped-source/drain metal-oxide-semiconductor static random-access memory cells. Data supports adoption of simplified worst-case model in which cross sectionof SEU by ion above threshold energy equals area of memory cell.

Impact of Asian Dust on Climate and Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Tan, Qian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin

2010-01-01

Dust generated from Asian permanent desert and desertification areas can be efficiently transported around the globe, making significant radiative impact through their absorbing and scattering solar radiation and through their deposition on snow and ice to modify the surface albedo. Asian dust is also a major concern of surface air quality not only in the source and immediate downwind regions but also areas thousands of miles away across the Pacific. We present here a global model, GOCART, analysis of data from satellite remote sensing instrument (MODIS, MISR, CALIPSO, OMI) and other observations on Asian dust sources, transport, and deposition, and use the model to assess the Asian dust impact on global climate and air quality.

Biomonitoring of airborne particulate matter emitted from a cement plant and comparison with dispersion modelling results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abril, Gabriela A.; Wannaz, Eduardo D.; Mateos, Ana C.; Pignata, María L.

2014-01-01

The influence of a cement plant that incinerates industrial waste on the air quality of a region in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, was assessed by means of biomonitoring studies (effects of immission) and atmospheric dispersion (effects of emission) of PM10 with the application of the ISC3 model (Industrial Source Complex) developed by the USEPA (Environmental Protection Agency). For the biomonitoring studies, samples from the epiphyte plant Tillandsia capillaris Ruíz & Pav. f. capillaris were transplanted to the vicinities of the cement plant in order to determine the physiological damage and heavy metal accumulation (Ca, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb). For the application of the ISC3 model, point and area sources from the cement plant were considered to obtain average PM10 concentration results from the biomonitoring exposure period. This model permitted it to be determined that the emissions from the cement plant (point and area sources) were confined to the vicinities, without significant dispersion in the study area. This was also observed in the biomonitoring study, which identified Ca, Cd and Pb, pH and electric conductivity (EC) as biomarkers of this cement plant. Vehicular traffic emissions and soil re-suspension could be observed in the biomonitors, giving a more complete scenario. In this study, biomonitoring studies along with the application of atmospheric dispersion models, allowed the atmospheric pollution to be assessed in more detail.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the St Peter aquifer in an area contaminated by coal-tar derivatives, St Louis Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.

1990-01-01

Model simulations also indicated that drawdown caused by pumping two wells, each pumping at 75 gallons per minute and located about 1 mile southeast of the source of contamination, would be effective in controlling movement and volume of contaminated ground water in the immediate area of the source of contamination. Some contamination may already have moved beyond the influence of these wells, however, because of a complex set of hydraulic conditions.

Erosion and Gully formation in the Ethiopian Highlands: physical observations and community perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, C. D.; Admassu, S.; Derebe, A.; Yitaferu, B.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2013-12-01

The aims of this investigation are to analyze spatio-temporal variations in sediment transport to waterways in a small agricultural watershed by: (i) locating sediment sources using modeling and bio-physical scientific approaches, (ii) locating sediment sources and erosion processes through age- and gender-differentiated focus group discussions and transect walks, and (iii) linking sediment sources to changes in soil nutrient concentrations. The collected field measurements, modeling results, and community perceptions have been gathered on an area encompassing a previous study site (14 ha) on a currently larger scale (95 ha) in the Debre Mewi watershed to develop a fuller picture of the social and environmental conditions that are leading to induced or controlled erosion and gully formation. Farmers provided their perspectives on erosion processes and these were complemented by and compared to soil and water field measurements during the rainy season. Sixteen sites were selected for monitoring and measuring groundwater, soil nutrient changes, and soil depth change on the 95 ha study area, based on land use and slope angle -- half represent grazing or fallow land and half are located on cultivated land. A set of stable gullies and actively forming gullies were monitored and measured simultaneously along hillslope locations in the top, middle and bottom areas. In addition, sediment concentration samples were collected at 4 weir locations in the 95 ha watershed and also at the final outlet to this watershed. Modeling efforts emphasize steep cropland as most vulnerable, whereas community members pointed out waterlogged black soils and lower areas as vulnerable. The data demonstrate that saturated pathways in the landscape provide areas for the development and widening of gullies and that flat cropland areas experience deposition rather than erosion, while soil nutrient concentrations are decreasing upslope and increasing downslope.

Erosion and Gully Formation in the Ethiopian Highlands: Physical Observations and Community Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Christian; Dagnew, Dessalegn; Zegeye, Assefa; Tilahun, Seifu; Yitaferu, Birru; Stoof, Cathelijne; Steenhuis, Tammo

2014-05-01

The aims of this investigation are to analyze spatio-temporal variations in sediment transport to waterways in a small agricultural watershed by: (i) locating sediment sources using modeling and bio-physical scientific approaches, (ii) locating sediment sources and erosion processes through age- and gender-differentiated focus group discussions and transect walks, and (iii) linking sediment sources to changes in soil nutrient concentrations. The collected field measurements, modeling results, and community perceptions have been gathered on an area encompassing a previous study site (14 ha) on a currently larger scale (95 ha) in the Debre Mewi watershed to develop a fuller picture of the social and environmental conditions that are leading to induced or controlled erosion and gully formation. Farmers provided their perspectives on erosion processes and these were complemented by and compared to soil and water field measurements during the rainy season. Nine sites were selected for monitoring and measuring groundwater, soil nutrient changes, and soil depth change on the 95 ha study area, based on land use and slope angle -- half represent grazing or fallow land and half are located on cultivated land. A set of stable gullies and actively forming gullies were monitored and measured simultaneously along hillslope locations in the top, middle and bottom areas. In addition, sediment concentration samples were collected at 4 weir locations in the 95 ha watershed and also at the final outlet to this watershed. Modeling efforts emphasize steep cropland as most vulnerable, whereas community members pointed out waterlogged black soils and lower areas as vulnerable. The data demonstrate that saturated pathways in the landscape provide areas for the development and widening of gullies and that flat cropland areas experience deposition rather than erosion, while soil nutrient concentrations are decreasing upslope and increasing downslope.

[Influence of 175-m-impoundment in Three Gorges Reservoir area on the food web energy sources of main commercial fishes in backwater area of xiaojiang River].

PubMed

Li, Bin; Wang, Zhi-Jian; Yue, Xing-Jian; Wang, Yong-Ming; Jin, Li; Zhang, Yao-Guang

2013-06-01

The impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) was first reached 175 m in 2010. To approach the influence of this impoundment on the food web energy sources of fishes in the tributaries of TRGA, an analysis was made on the food web energy sources of seven economically important fishes (Carassius auratus, Cyprinus carpio, Silurus asotus, Culter mongolicus mongolicus, Mystus macropterus, Pelteobagrus vachelli, and Pelteobagrus nitidus) in the backwater area of Xiaojiang River by using stable isotope method in combining with IsoSource Model. The results showed that before this impoundment (July 2010), microalgae were the main energy sources for the seven species. After this impoundment (December 2010), the contribution ratio of the microalgae decreased somewhat, while the relative contribution of terrestrial C4 plants had an obvious increase. Especially for crucian carp (C. auratus) and catfish (S. asotus), the contribution rate of the C4 plants reached 38-54% and 32-50%, respectively. After the impoundment, at least 30% of the energy resources of these two fishes were come from terrestrial C4 plants, suggesting that the impoundment in TGRA increased the contribution rate of exogenous terrestrial C4 plants as the energy sources of fishes.

A review of methods for predicting air pollution dispersion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathis, J. J., Jr.; Grose, W. L.

1973-01-01

Air pollution modeling, and problem areas in air pollution dispersion modeling were surveyed. Emission source inventory, meteorological data, and turbulent diffusion are discussed in terms of developing a dispersion model. Existing mathematical models of urban air pollution, and highway and airport models are discussed along with their limitations. Recommendations for improving modeling capabilities are included.

Equivalent charge source model based iterative maximum neighbor weight for sparse EEG source localization.

PubMed

Xu, Peng; Tian, Yin; Lei, Xu; Hu, Xiao; Yao, Dezhong

2008-12-01

How to localize the neural electric activities within brain effectively and precisely from the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings is a critical issue for current study in clinical neurology and cognitive neuroscience. In this paper, based on the charge source model and the iterative re-weighted strategy, proposed is a new maximum neighbor weight based iterative sparse source imaging method, termed as CMOSS (Charge source model based Maximum neighbOr weight Sparse Solution). Different from the weight used in focal underdetermined system solver (FOCUSS) where the weight for each point in the discrete solution space is independently updated in iterations, the new designed weight for each point in each iteration is determined by the source solution of the last iteration at both the point and its neighbors. Using such a new weight, the next iteration may have a bigger chance to rectify the local source location bias existed in the previous iteration solution. The simulation studies with comparison to FOCUSS and LORETA for various source configurations were conducted on a realistic 3-shell head model, and the results confirmed the validation of CMOSS for sparse EEG source localization. Finally, CMOSS was applied to localize sources elicited in a visual stimuli experiment, and the result was consistent with those source areas involved in visual processing reported in previous studies.

Identification of Geologic and Anthropogenic Sources of Phosphorus to Streams in California and Portions of Adjacent States, U.S.A., Using SPARROW Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domagalski, J. L.

2013-12-01

The SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions On Watershed Attributes) model allows for the simulation of nutrient transport at un-gauged catchments on a regional scale. The model was used to understand natural and anthropogenic factors affecting phosphorus transport in developed, undeveloped, and mixed watersheds. The SPARROW model is a statistical tool that allows for mass balance calculation of constituent sources, transport, and aquatic decay based upon a calibration of a subset of stream networks, where concentrations and discharge have been measured. Calibration is accomplished using potential sources for a given year and may include fertilizer, geological background (based on bed-sediment samples and aggregated with geochemical map units), point source discharge, and land use categories. NHD Plus version 2 was used to model the hydrologic system. Land to water transport variables tested were precipitation, permeability, soil type, tile drains, and irrigation. For this study area, point sources, cultivated land, and geological background are significant phosphorus sources to streams. Precipitation and clay content of soil are significant land to water transport variables and various stream sizes show significance with respect to aquatic decay. Specific rock types result in different levels of phosphorus loading and watershed yield. Some important geological sources are volcanic rocks (andesite and basalt), granodiorite, glacial deposits, and Mesozoic to Cenozoic marine deposits. Marine sediments vary in their phosphorus content, but are responsible for some of the highest natural phosphorus yields, especially along the Central and Southern California coast. The Miocene Monterey Formation was found to be an especially important local source in southern California. In contrast, mixed metamorphic and igneous assemblages such as argillites, peridotite, and shales of the Trinity Mountains of northern California result in some of the lowest phosphorus yields. The agriculturally productive Central Valley of California has a low amount of background phosphorus in spite of inputs from streams draining upland areas. Many years of intensive agriculture may be responsible for the decrease of soil phosphorus in that area. Watersheds with significant background sources of phosphorus and large amounts of cultivated land had some of the highest per hectare yields. Seven different stream systems important for water management, or to describe transport processes, were investigated in detail for downstream changes in sources and loads. For example, the Klamath River (Oregon and California) has intensive agriculture and andesite-derived phosphorus in the upper reach. The proportion of agricultural-derived phosphorus decreases as the river flows into California before discharge to the ocean. The river flows through at least three different types of geological background sources from high to intermediate to very low. Knowledge of the role of natural sources in developed watersheds is critical for developing nutrient management strategies and these model results will have applicability for the establishment of realistic nutrient criteria.

Application of crowd-sourced data to multi-scale evolutionary exposure and vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Seismic exposure, defined as the assets (population, buildings, infrastructure) exposed to earthquake hazard and susceptible to damage, is a critical -but often neglected- component of seismic risk assessment. This partly stems from the burden associated with the compilation of a useful and reliable model over wide spatial areas. While detailed engineering data have still to be collected in order to constrain exposure and vulnerability models, the availability of increasingly large crowd-sourced datasets (e. g. OpenStreetMap) opens up the exciting possibility to generate incrementally evolving models. Integrating crowd-sourced and authoritative data using statistical learning methodologies can reduce models uncertainties and also provide additional drive and motivation to volunteered geoinformation collection. A case study in Central Asia will be presented and discussed.

Crustal structure of the Churchill-Superior boundary zone between 80 and 98 deg W longitude from Magsat anomaly maps and stacked passes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, D. H.; Millar, T. W.; Noble, I. A.

1985-01-01

A modeling technique using spherical shell elements and equivalent dipole sources has been applied to Magsat signatures at the Churchill-Superior boundary in Manitoba, Ontario, and Ungava. A large satellite magnetic anomaly (12 nT amplitude) on POGO and Magsat maps near the Churchill-Superior boundary was found to be related to the Richmond Gulf aulacogen. The averaged crustal magnetization in the source region is 5.2 A/m. Stacking of the magnetic traces from Magsat passes reveals a magnetic signature (10 nT amplitude) at the Churchill-Superior boundary in an area studied between 80 deg W and 98 deg W. Modeling suggests a steplike thickening of the crust on the Churchill side of the boundary in a layer with a magnetization of 5 A/m. Signatures on aeromagnetic maps are also found in the source areas for both of these satellite anomalies.

The dialog between health and foreign policy in Brazilian cooperation in human milk banks.

PubMed

Pittas, Tiago Mocellin; Dri, Clarissa Franzoi

2017-07-01

Mother's milk is the primary source of nourishment in early infancy. When this source is unavailable, secondary sources may be used, such as human milk banks. The first milk bank in Brazil was created in 1943, and they have been used ever since. A national model was developed through a number of phases, culminating in the Brazilian Network of Human Milk Banks. This gave rise to a number of international cooperation projects, with the Brazilian model particularly relevant for developing nations. The main objective of this analysis is to understand what drives Brazil to promote milk banks internationally. To do this we tried to understand the relationship between health and foreign policy, expressed here as soft power, as here the two areas dialog with one another. The results include gains in both areas and the affirmation of health as a central goal of the national interest cluster of the case.

Observations of disk-shaped bodies in free flight at terminal velocity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vorreiter, J. W.; Tate, D. L.

1973-01-01

Ten disk-shaped models of a proposed nuclear heat source module were released from an aircraft and observed by radar. The initial launch attitude, spin rate, and mass of the models were varied. Significant differences were observed in the mode of flight and terminal velocity among models of different mass and launch attitudes. The data were analyzed to yield lift and drag coefficients as a function of Reynolds number. The total sea-level velocity of the models was found to be well correlated as a function of mass per unit frontal area. The demonstrated terminal velocity of the modular disk heat source, about 27 m/sec for this specific design, is only 33% of that of existing heat source designs.

INEEL Source Water Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sehlke, Gerald

2003-03-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) covers approximately 890 mi2 and includes 12 public water systems that must be evaluated for Source water protection purposes under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Because of its size and location, six watersheds and five aquifers could potentially affect the INEEL’s drinking water sources. Based on a preliminary evaluation of the available information, it was determined that the Big Lost River, Birch Creek, and Little Lost River Watersheds and the eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer needed to be assessed. These watersheds were delineated using the United States Geologic Survey’s Hydrological Unit scheme.more » Well capture zones were originally estimated using the RESSQC module of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Well Head Protection Area model, and the initial modeling assumptions and results were checked by running several scenarios using Modflow modeling. After a technical review, the resulting capture zones were expanded to account for the uncertainties associated with changing groundwater flow directions, a thick vadose zone, and other data uncertainties. Finally, all well capture zones at a given facility were merged to a single wellhead protection area at each facility. A contaminant source inventory was conducted, and the results were integrated with the well capture zones, watershed and aquifer information, and facility information using geographic information system technology to complete the INEEL’s Source Water Assessment. Of the INEEL’s 12 public water systems, three systems rated as low susceptibility (EBR-I, Main Gate, and Gun Range), and the remainder rated as moderate susceptibility. No INEEL public water system rated as high susceptibility. We are using this information to develop a source water management plan from which we will subsequently implement an INEEL-wide source water management program. The results are a very robust set of wellhead protection areas that will protect the INEEL’s public water systems yet not too conservative to inhibit the INEEL from carrying out its missions.« less

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Source Water Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sehlke, G.

2003-03-17

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) covers approximately 890 square miles and includes 12 public water systems that must be evaluated for Source water protection purposes under the Safe Drinking Water Act. Because of its size and location, six watersheds and five aquifers could potentially affect the INEEL's drinking water sources. Based on a preliminary evaluation of the available information, it was determined that the Big Lost River, Birch Creek, and Little Lost River Watersheds and the eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer needed to be assessed. These watersheds were delineated using the United States Geologic Survey's Hydrological Unitmore » scheme. Well capture zones were originally estimated using the RESSQC module of the Environmental Protection Agency's Well Head Protection Area model, and the initial modeling assumptions and results were checked by running several scenarios using Modflow modeling. After a technical review, the resulting capture zones were expanded to account for the uncertainties associated with changing groundwater flow directions, a this vadose zone, and other data uncertainties. Finally, all well capture zones at a given facility were merged to a single wellhead protection area at each facility. A contaminant source inventory was conducted, and the results were integrated with the well capture zones, watershed and aquifer information, and facility information using geographic information system technology to complete the INEEL's Source Water Assessment. Of the INEEL's 12 public water systems, three systems rated as low susceptibility (EBR-1, Main Gate, and Gun Range), and the remainder rated as moderate susceptibility. No INEEL public water system rated as high susceptibility. We are using this information to develop a source water management plan from which we will subsequently implement an INEEL-wide source water management program. The results are a very robust set of wellhead protection areas that will protect the INEEL's public water systems yet not too conservative to inhibit the INEEL from carrying out its missions.« less

Non-Point Source Pollutant Load Variation in Rapid Urbanization Areas by Remote Sensing, Gis and the L-THIA Model: A Case in Bao'an District, Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Li, Tianhong; Bai, Fengjiao; Han, Peng; Zhang, Yuanyan

2016-11-01

Urban sprawl is a major driving force that alters local and regional hydrology and increases non-point source pollution. Using the Bao'an District in Shenzhen, China, a typical rapid urbanization area, as the study area and land-use change maps from 1988 to 2014 that were obtained by remote sensing, the contributions of different land-use types to NPS pollutant production were assessed with a localized long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model. The results show that the non-point source pollution load changed significantly both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution. The loads of chemical oxygen demand, total suspended substances, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were affected by the interactions between event mean concentration and the magnitude of changes in land-use acreages and the spatial distribution. From 1988 to 2014, the loads of chemical oxygen demand, suspended substances and total phosphorus showed clearly increasing trends with rates of 132.48 %, 32.52 % and 38.76 %, respectively, while the load of total nitrogen decreased by 71.52 %. The immigrant population ratio was selected as an indicator to represent the level of rapid urbanization and industrialization in the study area, and a comparison analysis of the indicator with the four non-point source loads demonstrated that the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads are linearly related to the immigrant population ratio. The results provide useful information for environmental improvement and city management in the study area.

Non-Point Source Pollutant Load Variation in Rapid Urbanization Areas by Remote Sensing, Gis and the L-THIA Model: A Case in Bao'an District, Shenzhen, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianhong; Bai, Fengjiao; Han, Peng; Zhang, Yuanyan

2016-11-01

Urban sprawl is a major driving force that alters local and regional hydrology and increases non-point source pollution. Using the Bao'an District in Shenzhen, China, a typical rapid urbanization area, as the study area and land-use change maps from 1988 to 2014 that were obtained by remote sensing, the contributions of different land-use types to NPS pollutant production were assessed with a localized long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model. The results show that the non-point source pollution load changed significantly both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution. The loads of chemical oxygen demand, total suspended substances, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were affected by the interactions between event mean concentration and the magnitude of changes in land-use acreages and the spatial distribution. From 1988 to 2014, the loads of chemical oxygen demand, suspended substances and total phosphorus showed clearly increasing trends with rates of 132.48 %, 32.52 % and 38.76 %, respectively, while the load of total nitrogen decreased by 71.52 %. The immigrant population ratio was selected as an indicator to represent the level of rapid urbanization and industrialization in the study area, and a comparison analysis of the indicator with the four non-point source loads demonstrated that the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads are linearly related to the immigrant population ratio. The results provide useful information for environmental improvement and city management in the study area.

Bayesian Nitrate Source Apportionment to Individual Groundwater Wells in the Central Valley by use of Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Boron Isotopic Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockhart, K.; Harter, T.; Grote, M.; Young, M. B.; Eppich, G.; Deinhart, A.; Wimpenny, J.; Yin, Q. Z.

2014-12-01

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers underlying agricultural areas worldwide, an example of which is the San Joaquin Valley, California. Nitrate from land applied fertilizers or from animal waste can leach to groundwater and contaminate drinking water resources. Dairy manure and synthetic fertilizers are the major sources of nitrate in groundwater in the San Joaquin Valley, however, septic waste can be a major source in some areas. As in other such regions around the world, the rural population in the San Joaquin Valley relies almost exclusively on shallow domestic wells (≤150 m deep), of which many have been affected by nitrate. Consumption of water containing nitrate above the drinking water limit has been linked to major health effects including low blood oxygen in infants and certain cancers. Knowledge of the proportion of each of the three main nitrate sources (manure, synthetic fertilizer, and septic waste) contributing to individual well nitrate can aid future regulatory decisions. Nitrogen, oxygen, and boron isotopes can be used as tracers to differentiate between the three main nitrate sources. Mixing models quantify the proportional contributions of sources to a mixture by using the concentration of conservative tracers within each source as a source signature. Deterministic mixing models are common, but do not allow for variability in the tracer source concentration or overlap of tracer concentrations between sources. Bayesian statistics used in conjunction with mixing models can incorporate variability in the source signature. We developed a Bayesian mixing model on a pilot network of 32 private domestic wells in the San Joaquin Valley for which nitrate as well as nitrogen, oxygen, and boron isotopes were measured. Probability distributions for nitrogen, oxygen, and boron isotope source signatures for manure, fertilizer, and septic waste were compiled from the literature and from a previous groundwater monitoring project on several dairies in the San Joaquin Valley. Median percent contribution of nitrate to wells from fertilizer, manure, and septic waste generally match the expected source based on land use patterns, with some exceptions.

Predicting Phosphorus Dynamics Across Physiographic Regions Using a Mixed Hortonian Non-Hortonian Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collick, A.; Easton, Z. M.; Auerbach, D.; Buchanan, B.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Fuka, D.

2017-12-01

Predicting phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds depends on accurate representation of the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobility and transport. In complex landscapes, P predictions are complicated by a broad range of soils with and without restrictive layers, a wide variety of agricultural management, and variable hydrological drivers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict runoff and non-point source pollution transport, but is commonly only used with Hortonian (traditional SWAT) or non-Hortonian (SWAT-VSA) initializations. Many shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation excess runoff from variable source areas (VSA), which is well represented in a re-conceptualized version, SWAT-VSA. However, many watersheds exhibit traits of both infiltration excess and saturation excess hydrology internally, based on the hydrologic distance from the stream, distribution of soils across the landscape, and characteristics of restricting layers. The objective of this research is to provide an initial look at integrating distributed predictive capabilities that consider both Hortonian and Non-Hortonian solutions simultaneously within a single SWAT-VSA initialization. We compare results from all three conceptual watershed initializations against measured surface runoff and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub-field management of P. All three initializations predict discharge similarly well (daily Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies above 0.5), but the new conceptual SWAT-VSA initialization performed best in predicting P export from the watershed, while also identifying critical source areas - those areas generating large runoff and P losses at the sub field level. These results support the use of mixed Hortonian non-Hortonian SWAT-VSA initializations in predicting watershed-scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes with VSA hydrology.

Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

2017-07-01

We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

MODELING TRANSPORT IN THE DOWN GRADIENT PORTION OF THE 200-PO-1 OPERABLE UNIT AT THE HANFORD SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MEHTA S; ALY AH; MILLER CW

2009-12-03

Remedial Investigations are underway for the 200-PO-l Operable Unit (OU) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington State. To support the baseline risk assessment and evaluation of remedial alternatives, fate and transport modeling is being conducted to predict the future concentration of contaminants of potential concern in the 200-PO-1 OU. This study focuses on modeling the 'down gradient' transport of those contaminants that migrate beyond the 3-D model domain selected for performing detailed 'source area' modeling within the 200-PO-1 OU. The down gradient portion is defined as that region of the 200-PO-1 OU that is generally outsidemore » the 200 Area (considered 'source area') of the Hanford Site. A 1-D transport model is developed for performing down gradient contaminant fate and transport modeling. The 1-D transport model is deemed adequate based on the inferred transport pathway of tritium in the past and the observation that most of the contaminant mass remains at or near the water table within the unconfined aquifer of the Hanford Formation and the Cold-Creek/Pre-Missoula Gravel unit. The Pipe Pathway feature of the GoldSim software is used to perform the calculations. The Pipe Pathway uses a Laplace transform approach to provide analytical solutions to a broad range of advection-dominated mass transport systems involving one-dimensional advection, longitudinal dispersion, retardation, decay and ingrowth, and exchanges with immobile storage zones. Based on the historical concentration distribution data for the extensive tritium plume in this area, three Pipe Pathways are deemed adequate for modeling transport of contaminants. Each of these three Pipe Pathways is discretized into several zones, based on the saturated thickness variation in the unconfined aquifer and the location of monitoring wells used for risk assessment calculation. The mass fluxes of contaminants predicted to exit the source area model domain are used as an input to the down gradient model, while the flow velocities applied are based on the present-day hydraulic gradients and estimation of hydraulic conductivity in the unconfined aquifer. The results of the calculation indicate that the future concentrations of contaminants of potential concern in the down gradient portion of the 200-PO-1 OU declines with time and distance.« less

[Estimation of desert vegetation coverage based on multi-source remote sensing data].

PubMed

Wan, Hong-Mei; Li, Xia; Dong, Dao-Rui

2012-12-01

Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study areaAbstract: Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study area and based on the ground investigation and the multi-source remote sensing data of different resolutions, the estimation models for desert vegetation coverage were built, with the precisions of different estimation methods and models compared. The results showed that with the increasing spatial resolution of remote sensing data, the precisions of the estimation models increased. The estimation precision of the models based on the high, middle-high, and middle-low resolution remote sensing data was 89.5%, 87.0%, and 84.56%, respectively, and the precisions of the remote sensing models were higher than that of vegetation index method. This study revealed the change patterns of the estimation precision of desert vegetation coverage based on different spatial resolution remote sensing data, and realized the quantitative conversion of the parameters and scales among the high, middle, and low spatial resolution remote sensing data of desert vegetation coverage, which would provide direct evidence for establishing and implementing comprehensive remote sensing monitoring scheme for the ecological restoration in the study area.

Analysis and predictive models of stormwater runoff volumes, loads, and pollutant concentrations from watersheds in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Brezonik, Patrick L; Stadelmann, Teresa H

2002-04-01

Urban nonpoint source pollution is a significant contributor to water quality degradation. Watershed planners need to be able to estimate nonpoint source loads to lakes and streams if they are to plan effective management strategies. To meet this need for the twin cities metropolitan area, a large database of urban and suburban runoff data was compiled. Stormwater runoff loads and concentrations of 10 common constituents (six N and P forms, TSS, VSS, COD, Pb) were characterized, and effects of season and land use were analyzed. Relationships between runoff variables and storm and watershed characteristics were examined. The best regression equation to predict runoff volume for rain events was based on rainfall amount, drainage area, and percent impervious area (R2 = 0.78). Median event-mean concentrations (EMCs) tended to be higher in snowmelt runoff than in rainfall runoff, and significant seasonal differences were found in yields (kg/ha) and EMCs for most constituents. Simple correlations between explanatory variables and stormwater loads and EMCs were weak. Rainfall amount and intensity and drainage area were the most important variables in multiple linear regression models to predict event loads, but uncertainty was high in models developed with the pooled data set. The most accurate models for EMCs generally were found when sites were grouped according to common land use and size.

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

Comprehensive model-based prediction of micropollutants from diffuse sources in the Swiss river network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strahm, Ivo; Munz, Nicole; Braun, Christian; Gälli, René; Leu, Christian; Stamm, Christian

2014-05-01

Water quality in the Swiss river network is affected by many micropollutants from a variety of diffuse sources. This study compares, for the first time, in a comprehensive manner the diffuse sources and the substance groups that contribute the most to water contamination in Swiss streams and highlights the major regions for water pollution. For this a simple but comprehensive model was developed to estimate emission from diffuse sources for the entire Swiss river network of 65 000 km. Based on emission factors the model calculates catchment specific losses to streams for more than 15 diffuse sources (such as crop lands, grassland, vineyards, fruit orchards, roads, railways, facades, roofs, green space in urban areas, landfills, etc.) and more than 130 different substances from 5 different substance groups (pesticides, biocides, heavy metals, human drugs, animal drugs). For more than 180 000 stream sections estimates of mean annual pollutant loads and mean annual concentration levels were modeled. This data was validated with a set of monitoring data and evaluated based on annual average environmental quality standards (AA-EQS). Model validation showed that the estimated mean annual concentration levels are within the range of measured data. Therefore simulations were considered as adequately robust for identifying the major sources of diffuse pollution. The analysis depicted that in Switzerland widespread pollution of streams can be expected. Along more than 18 000 km of the river network one or more simulated substances has a concentration exceeding the AA-EQS. In single stream sections it could be more than 50 different substances. Moreover, the simulations showed that in two-thirds of small streams (Strahler order 1 and 2) at least one AA-EQS is always exceeded. The highest number of substances exceeding the AA-EQS are in areas with large fractions of arable cropping, vineyards and fruit orchards. Urban areas are also of concern even without considering wastewater treatment plants. Only a small number of problematic substances are expected from grassland. Landfills and roadways are insignificant within the entire Swiss river network, but may locally lead to considerable water pollution. Considering all substance groups, pesticides and some heavy metals are the main polluters. Many pesticides are expected to exceed AA-EQS and in a substantial percentage of the river network. Modeling a large number of substances from many sources and a huge quantity of stream sections is only possible with a simple model. Nevertheless conclusions are robust and may indicate where and for what kind of substance groups additional efforts for water quality improvements should be undertaken.

CH4 emission estimates from an active landfill site inferred from a combined approach of CFD modelling and in situ FTIR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonderfeld, Hannah; Boesch, Hartmut; Jeanjean, Antoine P. R.; Riddick, Stuart N.; Allen, Grant; Ars, Sebastien; Davies, Stewart; Harris, Neil; Humpage, Neil; Leigh, Roland; Pitt, Joseph

2017-04-01

Globally, the waste sector contributes to nearly a fifth of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emitted to the atmosphere and is the second largest source of methane in the UK. In recent years great improvements to reduce those emissions have been achieved by installation of methane recovery systems at landfill sites and subsequently methane emissions reported in national emission inventories have been reduced. Nevertheless, methane emissions of landfills remain uncertain and quantification of emission fluxes is essential to verify reported emission inventories and to monitor changes in emissions. We are presenting data from the deployment of an in situ FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer, Ecotech) for continuous and simultaneous sampling of CO2, CH4, N2O and CO with high time resolution of the order of minutes. During a two week field campaign at an operational landfill site in Eastern England in August 2014, measurements were taken within a radius of 320 m of the uncovered and active area of the landfill, which was still filled with new incoming waste. We have applied a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model, constrained with local wind measurements and a detailed topographic map of the landfill site, to the in situ concentration data to calculate CH4 fluxes of the active site. A mean daytime flux of 0.83 mg m-2 s-1 (53.26 kg h-1) was calculated for the area of the active site. An additional source area was identified and incorporated into the CFD model, which resulted in higher total methane emissions of 75.97 kg h-1 for the combined emission areas. Our method of combining a CFD model to in situ data, in medium proximity of the source area, allows to distinguish between different emission areas and thereby provide more detailed information compared to bulk emission approaches.

Review of 1990 Mobile-Source Emissions Modeling Procedure for the Dallas-Fort Worth Nonattainment Area

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

The Dallas-Fort Worth (D-FW) metropolitan area in Texas includes all of Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwell, and Tarrant Counties and portions of Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, and Parker Counties. The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), the ...

Monitored Natural Attenuation of ino9rganic Contaminants Treatability Study Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crapse, K

2004-05-19

The identification and quantification of key natural attenuation processes for inorganic contaminants at D-Area is detailed herein. Two overarching goals of this evaluation of monitored natural attenuation (MNA) as a remediation strategy were (1) to better define the availability of inorganic contaminants as potential sources for transport to groundwater and uptake by environmental receptors and (2) to understand the site-specific mechanisms controlling attenuation of these inorganic contaminants through tandem geochemical and biological characterization. Data collected in this study provides input for more appropriate site groundwater transport models. Significant natural attenuation is occurring at D-Area as evidenced by relatively low aqueousmore » concentrations of constituents of concern (COCs) (Be, Ni, U, and As) at all locations characterized and the decrease in groundwater concentrations with increasing distance from the source. The observed magnitude of decrease in groundwater concentrations of COCs with distance from the D-Area Coal Pile Runoff Basin (DCPRB) could not be accounted for by the modeled physical attenuation processes of dilution/dispersion. This additional attenuation, i.e., the observed difference between the groundwater concentrations of COCs and the modeled physical attenuation, is due to biogeochemical processes occurring at the D-Area. In tandem geochemical and microbiological characterization studies designed to evaluate the mechanisms contributing to natural attenuation, pH was the single parameter found to be most predictive of contaminant attenuation. The increasing pH with distance from the source is likely responsible for increased sorption of COCs to soil surfaces within the aquifer at D-Area. Importantly, because the sediments appear to have a high buffering capacity, the acid emanating from the DCPRB has been neutralized by the soil, and these conditions have led to large Kd values at the site. Two major types of soils are present at D-Area and were evaluated in this study: upland subsurface soils associated with a low pH/high sulfate/metals plume down-gradient of the D-Area Coal Pile Runoff Basin (DCPRB) and surface ash material discharged to the wetland from the D-Area Ash Basin (488-D). Sequential extraction studies were carried out to better define the availability of inorganic contaminant sources at D-Area.« less

Kinematic and Dynamic Source Rupture Scenario for Potential Megathrust Event along the Southernmost Ryukyu Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. C.; Hu, F.; Chen, X.; Lee, S. J.; Hung, S. H.

2017-12-01

Kinematic source model is widely used for the simulation of an earthquake, because of its simplicity and ease of application. On the other hand, dynamic source model is a more complex but important tool that can help us to understand the physics of earthquake initiation, propagation, and healing. In this study, we focus on the southernmost Ryukyu Trench which is extremely close to northern Taiwan. Interseismic GPS data in northeast Taiwan shows a pattern of strain accumulation, which suggests the maximum magnitude of a potential future earthquake in this area is probably about magnitude 8.7. We develop dynamic rupture models for the hazard estimation of the potential megathrust event based on the kinematic rupture scenarios which are inverted using the interseismic GPS data. Besides, several kinematic source rupture scenarios with different characterized slip patterns are also considered to constrain the dynamic rupture process better. The initial stresses and friction properties are tested using the trial-and-error method, together with the plate coupling and tectonic features. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip prescribed in the kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. Furthermore, the dynamic and kinematic rupture models are considered to simulate the ground shaking from based on 3-D spectral-element method. We analyze ShakeMap and ShakeMovie from the simulation results to evaluate the influence over the island between different source models. A dispersive tsunami-propagation simulation is also carried out to evaluate the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal areas of Taiwan due to coseismic seafloor deformation of different source models. The results of this numerical simulation study can provide a physically-based information of megathrust earthquake scenario for the emergency response agency to take the appropriate action before the really big one happens.

SAPT units turn-on in an interference-dominant environment. [Stand Alone Pressure Transducer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, W.-C.; Yang, C.-C.; Lichtenberg, C.

1990-01-01

A stand alone pressure transducer (SAPT) is a credit-card-sized smart pressure sensor inserted between the tile and the aluminum skin of a space shuttle. Reliably initiating the SAPT units via RF signals in a prelaunch environment is a challenging problem. Multiple-source interference may exist if more than one GSE (ground support equipment) antenna is turned on at the same time to meet the simultaneity requirement of 10 ms. A polygon model for orbiter, external tank, solid rocket booster, and tail service masts is used to simulate the prelaunch environment. Geometric optics is then applied to identify the coverage areas and the areas which are vulnerable to multipath and/or multiple-source interference. Simulation results show that the underside areas of an orbiter have incidence angles exceeding 80 deg. For multipath interference, both sides of the cargo bay areas are found to be vulnerable to a worst-case multipath loss exceeding 20 dB. Multiple-source interference areas are also identified. Mitigation methods for the coverage and interference problem are described. It is shown that multiple-source interference can be eliminated (or controlled) using the time-division-multiplexing method or the time-stamp approach.

Absolute Effective Area of the Chandra High-Resolution Mirror Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, D. A.; David, L. P.; Donnelly, R. H.; Edgar, R. J.; Gaetz, T. J.; Jerius, D.; Juda, M.; Kellogg, E. M.; McNamara, B. R.; Dewey, D.

2000-01-01

The Chandra X-ray Observatory was launched in July 1999, and is returning exquisite sub-arcsecond x-ray images of star groups, supernova remnants, galaxies, quasars, and clusters of galaxies. In addition to being the premier X-ray observatory in terms of angular and spectral resolution, Chandra is the best calibrated X-ray facility ever flown. We discuss here the calibration of the effective area of the High Resolution Mirror Assembly. Because we do not know the absolute X-ray flux density of any celestial source, this must be based primarily on ground measurements and on modeling. In particular, we must remove the calibrated modeled responses of the detectors and gratings to obtain the mirror area. For celestial sources which may be assumed to have smoothly varying spectra, such as the Crab Nebula, we may verify the continuity of the area calibration as a function of energy. This is of significance in energy regions such as the Ir M-edges, or near the critical grazing angle cutoff of the various mirror shells.

[Air pollution in an urban area nearby the Rome-Ciampino city airport].

PubMed

Di Menno di Bucchianico, Alessandro; Cattani, Giorgio; Gaeta, Alessandra; Caricchia, Anna Maria; Troiano, Francesco; Sozzi, Roberto; Bolignano, Andrea; Sacco, Fabrizio; Damizia, Sesto; Barberini, Silvia; Caleprico, Roberta; Fabozzi, Tina; Ancona, Carla; Ancona, Laura; Cesaroni, Giulia; Forastiere, Francesco; Gobbi, Gian Paolo; Costabile, Francesca; Angelini, Federico; Barnaba, Francesca; Inglessis, Marco; Tancredi, Francesco; Palumbo, Lorenzo; Fontana, Luca; Bergamaschi, Antonio; Iavicoli, Ivo

2014-01-01

to assess air pollution spatial and temporal variability in the urban area nearby the Ciampino International Airport (Rome) and to investigate the airport-related emissions contribute. the study domain was a 64 km2 area around the airport. Two fifteen-day monitoring campaigns (late spring, winter) were carried out. Results were evaluated using several runs outputs of an airport-related sources Lagrangian particle model and a photochemical model (the Flexible Air quality Regional Model, FARM). both standard and high time resolution air pollutant concentrations measurements: CO, NO, NO2, C6H6, mass and number concentration of several PM fractions. 46 fixed points (spread over the study area) of NO2 and volatile organic compounds concentrations (fifteen days averages); deterministic models outputs. standard time resolution measurements, as well as model outputs, showed the airport contribution to air pollution levels being little compared to the main source in the area (i.e. vehicular traffic). However, using high time resolution measurements, peaks of particles associated with aircraft takeoff (total number concentration and soot mass concentration), and landing (coarse mass concentration) were observed, when the site measurement was downwind to the runway. the frequently observed transient spikes associated with aircraft movements could lead to a not negligible contribute to ultrafine, soot and coarse particles exposure of people living around the airport. Such contribute and its spatial and temporal variability should be investigated when assessing the airports air quality impact.

A new conceptual model for quantifying transboundary contribution of atmospheric pollutants in the East Asian Pacific rim region.

PubMed

Lai, I-Chien; Lee, Chon-Lin; Huang, Hu-Ching

2016-03-01

Transboundary transport of air pollution is a serious environmental concern as pollutant affects both human health and the environment. Many numerical approaches have been utilized to quantify the amounts of pollutants transported to receptor regions, based on emission inventories from possible source regions. However, sparse temporal-spatial observational data and uncertainty in emission inventories might make the transboundary transport contribution difficult to estimate. This study presents a conceptual quantitative approach that uses transport pathway classification in combination with curve fitting models to simulate an air pollutant concentration baseline for pollution background concentrations. This approach is used to investigate the transboundary transport contribution of atmospheric pollutants to a metropolitan area in the East Asian Pacific rim region. Trajectory analysis categorized pollution sources for the study area into three regions: East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan cities. The occurrence frequency and transboundary contribution results suggest the predominant source region is the East Asian continent. This study also presents an application to evaluate heavy pollution cases for health concerns. This new baseline construction model provides a useful tool for the study of the contribution of transboundary pollution delivered to receptors, especially for areas deficient in emission inventories and regulatory monitoring data for harmful air pollutants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The simulated effects of wastewater-management actions on the hydrologic system and nitrogen-loading rates to wells and ecological receptors, Popponesset Bay Watershed, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.

2013-01-01

The discharge of excess nitrogen into Popponesset Bay, an estuarine system on western Cape Cod, has resulted in eutrophication and the loss of eel grass habitat within the estuaries. Septic-system return flow in residential areas within the watershed is the primary source of nitrogen. Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nitrogen have been assigned to the six estuaries that compose the system, and local communities are in the process of implementing the TMDLs by the partial sewering, treatment, and disposal of treated wastewater at wastewater-treatment facilities (WTFs). Loads of waste-derived nitrogen from both current (1997–2001) and future sources can be estimated implicitly from parcel-scale water-use data and recharge areas delineated by a groundwater-flow model. These loads are referred to as “instantaneous” loads because it is assumed that the nitrogen from surface sources is delivered to receptors instantaneously and that there is no traveltime through the aquifer. The use of a solute-transport model to explicitly simulate the transport of mass through the aquifer from sources to receptors can improve implementation of TMDLs by (1) accounting for traveltime through the aquifer, (2) avoiding limitations associated with the estimation of loads from static recharge areas, (3) accounting more accurately for the effect of surface waters on nitrogen loads, and (4) determining the response of waste-derived nitrogen loads to potential wastewater-management actions. The load of nitrogen to Popponesset Bay on western Cape Cod, which was estimated by using current sources as input to a solute-transport model based on a steady-state flow model, is about 50 percent of the instantaneous load after about 7 years of transport (loads to estuary are equal to loads discharged from sources); this estimate is consistent with simulated advective traveltimes in the aquifer, which have a median of 5 years. Model-calculated loads originating from recharge areas reach 80 percent of the instantaneous load within 30 years; this result indicates that loads estimated from recharge areas likely are reasonable for estimating current instantaneous loads. However, recharge areas are assumed to remain static as stresses and hydrologic conditions change in response to wastewater-management actions. Sewering of the Popponesset Bay watershed would not change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to receptors substantially; however, disposal of wastewater from treatment facilities can change hydraulic gradients and recharge areas to nearby receptors, particularly if the facilities are near the boundary of the recharge area. In these cases, nitrogen loads implicitly estimated by using current recharge areas that do not accurately represent future hydraulic stresses can differ significantly from loads estimated with recharge areas that do represent those stresses. Nitrogen loads to two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay system estimated by using recharge areas delineated for future hydrologic conditions and nitrogen sources were about 3 and 9 times higher than loads estimated by using current recharge areas; for this reason, reliance on static recharge areas can present limitations for effective TMDL implementation by means of a hypothetical, but realistic, wastewater-management action. A solute-transport model explicitly represents nitrogen transport from surface sources and does not rely on the use of recharge areas; because changes in gradients resulting from wastewater-management actions are accounted for in transport simulations, they provide more reliable predictions of future nitrogen loads. Explicitly representing the mass transport of nitrogen can better account for the mechanisms by which nitrogen enters the estuary and improve estimates of the attenuation of nitrogen concentrations in fresh surface waters. Water and associated nitrogen can enter an estuary as either direct groundwater discharge or as surface-water inflow. Two estuaries in the Popponesset Bay watershed receive surface-water inflows: Shoestring Bay receives water from the Santuit River, and the tidal reach of the Mashpee River receives water (and associated nitrogen) from the nontidal reach of the Mashpee River. Much of the water discharging into these streams passes through ponds prior to discharge. The additional attenuation of nitrogen in groundwater that has passed through a pond and discharged into a stream prior to entering an estuary is about 3 kilograms per day. Advective-transport times in the aquifer generally are small—median traveltimes are about 4.5 years—and nitrogen loads at receptors respond quickly to wastewater-management actions. The simulated decreases in nitrogen loads were 50 and 80 percent of the total decreases within 5 and 15 years, respectively, after full sewering of the watershed and within 3 and 10 years, for sequential phases of partial sewering and disposal at WTFs. The results show that solute-transport models can be used to assess the responses of nitrogen loads to wastewater-management actions, and that loads at ecological receptors (receiving waters—ponds, streams or coastal waters—that support ecosystems) will respond within a few years to those actions. The responses vary for individual receptors as functions of hydrologic setting, traveltimes in the aquifer, and the unique set of nitrogen sources representing current and future wastewater-disposal actions within recharge areas. Changes in nitrogen loads from groundwater discharge to individual estuaries range from a decrease of 90 percent to an increase of 80 percent following sequential phases of hypothetical but realistic wastewater-management actions. The ability to explicitly represent the transport of mass through the aquifer allows for the evaluation of complex responses that include the effects of surface waters, traveltimes, and complex changes in sources. Most of the simulated decreases in nitrogen loads to Shoestring Bay and the tidal portion of the Mashpee River, 79 and 69 percent, respectively, were caused by decreases in the nitrogen loads from surface-water inflow.

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Wang, Long; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-07-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic Moment, Seismic Energy, and Source Duration of Slow Earthquakes: Application of Brownian slow earthquake model to three major subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, Satoshi; Maury, Julie

2018-04-01

Tectonic tremors, low-frequency earthquakes, very low-frequency earthquakes, and slow slip events are all regarded as components of broadband slow earthquakes, which can be modeled as a stochastic process using Brownian motion. Here we show that the Brownian slow earthquake model provides theoretical relationships among the seismic moment, seismic energy, and source duration of slow earthquakes and that this model explains various estimates of these quantities in three major subduction zones: Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico. While the estimates for these three regions are similar at the seismological frequencies, the seismic moment rates are significantly different in the geodetic observation. This difference is ascribed to the difference in the characteristic times of the Brownian slow earthquake model, which is controlled by the width of the source area. We also show that the model can include non-Gaussian fluctuations, which better explains recent findings of a near-constant source duration for low-frequency earthquake families.

Landscape scale prediction of earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological and geomorphological parameters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.; Rault, C.

2017-12-01

In tectonically active areas, earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides with significant impact on hillslopes and river evolutions. However, detailed prediction of landslides locations and properties for a given earthquakes remain difficult.In contrast we propose, landscape scale, analytical prediction of bulk coseismic landsliding, that is total landslide area and volume (Marc et al., 2016a) as well as the regional area within which most landslide must distribute (Marc et al., 2017). The prediction is based on a limited number of seismological (seismic moment, source depth) and geomorphological (landscape steepness, threshold acceleration) parameters, and therefore could be implemented in landscape evolution model aiming at engaging with erosion dynamics at the scale of the seismic cycle. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized estimates of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by landslides for 40, 17 and 83 earthquakes, respectively. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about 70% of the cases in our databases. The prediction of regional area affected do not require a calibration for the landscape steepness and gives a prediction within a factor of 2 for 60% of the database. For 7 out of 10 comprehensive inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment.Some of the outliers seems related to exceptional rock mass strength in the epicentral area or shaking duration and other seismic source complexities ignored by the model. Applications include prediction on the mass balance of earthquakes and this model predicts that only earthquakes generated on a narrow range of fault sizes may cause more erosion than uplift (Marc et al., 2016b), while very large earthquakes are expected to always build topography. The model could also be used to physically calibrate hillslope erosion or perturbations to river network within landscape evolution model.

Potential use of ionic species for identifying source land-uses of stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Lee, Dong Hoon; Kim, Jin Hwi; Mendoza, Joseph A; Lee, Chang-Hee; Kang, Joo-Hyon

2017-02-01

Identifying critical land-uses or source areas is important to prioritize resources for cost-effective stormwater management. This study investigated the use of information on ionic composition as a fingerprint to identify the source land-use of stormwater runoff. We used 12 ionic species in stormwater runoff monitored for a total of 20 storm events at five sites with different land-use compositions during the 2012-2014 wet seasons. A stepwise forward discriminant function analysis (DFA) with the jack-knifed cross validation approach was used to select ionic species that better discriminate the land-use of its source. Of the 12 ionic species, 9 species (K + , Mg 2+ , Na + , NH 4 + , Br - , Cl - , F - , NO 2 - , and SO 4 2- ) were selected for better performance of the DFA. The DFA successfully differentiated stormwater samples from urban, rural, and construction sites using concentrations of the ionic species (70%, 95%, and 91% of correct classification, respectively). Over 80% of the new data cases were correctly classified by the trained DFA model. When applied to data cases from a mixed land-use catchment and downstream, the DFA model showed the greater impact of urban areas and rural areas respectively in the earlier and later parts of a storm event.

Detecting black bear source–sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs

PubMed Central

Draheim, Hope M.; Moore, Jennifer A.; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R.; Scribner, Kim T.

2016-01-01

Source–sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source–sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source–sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source–sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. PMID:27440668

Comparison of source apportionment of PM2.5 using receptor models in the main hub port city of East Asia: Busan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Ju-Hee; Shon, Zang-Ho; Kang, Minsung; Song, Sang-Keun; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Park, Jinsoo; Kim, Hyunjae

2017-01-01

The contributions of various PM2.5 emission sources to ambient PM2.5 levels during 2013 in the main hub port city (Busan, South Korea) of East Asia was quantified using several receptor modeling techniques. Three receptor models of principal component analysis/absolute principal component score (PCA/APCS), positive matrix factorization (PMF), and chemical mass balance (CMB) were used to apportion the source of PM2.5 obtained from the target city. The results of the receptor models indicated that the secondary formation of PM2.5 was the dominant (45-60%) contributor to PM2.5 levels in the port city of Busan. The PMF and PCA/APCS suggested that ship emission was a non-negligible contributor of PM2.5 (up to about 10%) in the study area, whereas it was a negligible contributor based on CMB. The magnitude of source contribution estimates to PM2.5 levels differed significantly among these three models due to their limitations (e.g., PM2.5 emission source profiles and restrictions of the models). Potential source contribution function and concentration-weighted trajectory analyses indicated that long-range transport from sources in the eastern China and Yellow Sea contributed significantly to the level of PM2.5 in Busan.

Comparison of the landslide susceptibility models in Taipei Water Source Domain, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, C. Y.; Yeh, Y. C.; Chou, T. H.

2017-12-01

Taipei Water Source Domain, locating at the southeast of Taipei Metropolis, is the main source of water resource in this region. Recently, the downstream turbidity often soared significantly during the typhoon period because of the upstream landslides. The landslide susceptibilities should be analysed to assess the influence zones caused by different rainfall events, and to ensure the abilities of this domain to serve enough and quality water resource. Generally, the landslide susceptibility models can be established based on either a long-term landslide inventory or a specified landslide event. Sometimes, there is no long-term landslide inventory in some areas. Thus, the event-based landslide susceptibility models are established widely. However, the inventory-based and event-based landslide susceptibility models may result in dissimilar susceptibility maps in the same area. So the purposes of this study were to compare the landslide susceptibility maps derived from the inventory-based and event-based models, and to interpret how to select a representative event to be included in the susceptibility model. The landslide inventory from Typhoon Tim in July, 1994 and Typhoon Soudelor in August, 2015 was collected, and used to establish the inventory-based landslide susceptibility model. The landslides caused by Typhoon Nari and rainfall data were used to establish the event-based model. The results indicated the high susceptibility slope-units were located at middle upstream Nan-Shih Stream basin.

Accounting for intracell flow in models with emphasis on water table recharge and stream-aquifer interaction: 1. Problems and concepts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorgensen, Donald G.; Signor, Donald C.; Imes, Jeffrey L.

1989-01-01

Intracell flow is important in modeling cells that contain both sources and sinks. Special attention is needed if recharge through the water table is a source. One method of modeling multiple sources and sinks is to determine the net recharge per cell. For example, for a model cell containing both a sink and recharge through the water table, the amount of recharge should be reduced by the ratio of the area of influence of the sink within the cell to the area of the cell. The reduction is the intercepted portion of the recharge. In a multilayer model this amount is further reduced by a proportion factor, which is a function of the depth of the flow lines from the water table boundary to the internal sink. A gaining section of a stream is a typical sink. The aquifer contribution to a gaining stream can be conceptualized as having two parts; the first part is the intercepted lateral flow from the water table and the second is the flow across the streambed due to differences in head between the water level in the stream and the aquifer below. The amount intercepted is a function of the geometry of the cell, but the amount due to difference in head across the stream bed is largely independent of cell geometry. A discharging well can intercept recharge through the water table within a model cell. The net recharge to the cell would be reduced in proportion to the area of influence of the well within the cell. The area of influence generally changes with time. Thus the amount of intercepted recharge and net recharge may not be constant with time. During periods when the well is not discharging there will be no intercepted recharge even though the area of influence from previous pumping may still exist. The reduction of net recharge per cell due to internal interception of flow will result in a model-calculated mass balance less than the prototype. Additionally the “effective transmissivity” along the intercell flow paths may be altered when flow paths are occupied by intercepted recharge.

Network design for quantifying urban CO 2 emissions: assessing trade-offs between precision and network density

DOE PAGES

Turner, Alexander J.; Shusterman, Alexis A.; McDonald, Brian C.; ...

2016-11-01

The majority of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are attributable to urban areas. While the emissions from urban electricity generation often occur in locations remote from consumption, many of the other emissions occur within the city limits. Evaluating the effectiveness of strategies for controlling these emissions depends on our ability to observe urban CO 2 emissions and attribute them to specific activities. Cost-effective strategies for doing so have yet to be described. Here we characterize the ability of a prototype measurement network, modeled after the Berkeley Atmospheric CO 2 Observation Network (BEACO 2N) in California's Bay Area, in combination with anmore » inverse model based on the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) to improve our understanding of urban emissions. The pseudo-measurement network includes 34 sites at roughly 2 km spacing covering an area of roughly 400 km 2. The model uses an hourly 1 × 1 km 2 emission inventory and 1 × 1 km 2 meteorological calculations. We perform an ensemble of Bayesian atmospheric inversions to sample the combined effects of uncertainties of the pseudo-measurements and the model. We vary the estimates of the combined uncertainty of the pseudo-observations and model over a range of 20 to 0.005 ppm and vary the number of sites from 1 to 34. We use these inversions to develop statistical models that estimate the efficacy of the combined model–observing system in reducing uncertainty in CO 2 emissions. We examine uncertainty in estimated CO 2 fluxes on the urban scale, as well as for sources embedded within the city such as a line source (e.g., a highway) or a point source (e.g., emissions from the stacks of small industrial facilities). Using our inversion framework, we find that a dense network with moderate precision is the preferred setup for estimating area, line, and point sources from a combined uncertainty and cost perspective. The dense network considered here (modeled after the BEACO 2N network with an assumed mismatch error of 1 ppm at an hourly temporal resolution) could estimate weekly CO 2 emissions from an urban region with less than 5 % error, given our characterization of the combined observation and model uncertainty.« less

Network design for quantifying urban CO 2 emissions: assessing trade-offs between precision and network density

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Alexander J.; Shusterman, Alexis A.; McDonald, Brian C.

The majority of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are attributable to urban areas. While the emissions from urban electricity generation often occur in locations remote from consumption, many of the other emissions occur within the city limits. Evaluating the effectiveness of strategies for controlling these emissions depends on our ability to observe urban CO 2 emissions and attribute them to specific activities. Cost-effective strategies for doing so have yet to be described. Here we characterize the ability of a prototype measurement network, modeled after the Berkeley Atmospheric CO 2 Observation Network (BEACO 2N) in California's Bay Area, in combination with anmore » inverse model based on the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) to improve our understanding of urban emissions. The pseudo-measurement network includes 34 sites at roughly 2 km spacing covering an area of roughly 400 km 2. The model uses an hourly 1 × 1 km 2 emission inventory and 1 × 1 km 2 meteorological calculations. We perform an ensemble of Bayesian atmospheric inversions to sample the combined effects of uncertainties of the pseudo-measurements and the model. We vary the estimates of the combined uncertainty of the pseudo-observations and model over a range of 20 to 0.005 ppm and vary the number of sites from 1 to 34. We use these inversions to develop statistical models that estimate the efficacy of the combined model–observing system in reducing uncertainty in CO 2 emissions. We examine uncertainty in estimated CO 2 fluxes on the urban scale, as well as for sources embedded within the city such as a line source (e.g., a highway) or a point source (e.g., emissions from the stacks of small industrial facilities). Using our inversion framework, we find that a dense network with moderate precision is the preferred setup for estimating area, line, and point sources from a combined uncertainty and cost perspective. The dense network considered here (modeled after the BEACO 2N network with an assumed mismatch error of 1 ppm at an hourly temporal resolution) could estimate weekly CO 2 emissions from an urban region with less than 5 % error, given our characterization of the combined observation and model uncertainty.« less

Tim Watkins

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tim’s expertise and interests lie in the area of air pollution exposure assessment, including ambient air monitoring, personal monitoring, source apportionment, and air quality and exposure modeling.

Methodologies for evaluating performance and assessing uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Joseph C.

This thesis describes methodologies to evaluate the performance and to assess the uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion models, tools that predict the fate of gases and aerosols upon their release into the atmosphere. Because of the large economic and public-health impacts often associated with the use of the dispersion model results, these models should be properly evaluated, and their uncertainty should be properly accounted for and understood. The CALPUFF, HPAC, and VLSTRACK dispersion modeling systems were applied to the Dipole Pride (DP26) field data (˜20 km in scale), in order to demonstrate the evaluation and uncertainty assessment methodologies. Dispersion model performance was found to be strongly dependent on the wind models used to generate gridded wind fields from observed station data. This is because, despite the fact that the test site was a flat area, the observed surface wind fields still showed considerable spatial variability, partly because of the surrounding mountains. It was found that the two components were comparable for the DP26 field data, with variability more important than uncertainty closer to the source, and less important farther away from the source. Therefore, reducing data errors for input meteorology may not necessarily increase model accuracy due to random turbulence. DP26 was a research-grade field experiment, where the source, meteorological, and concentration data were all well-measured. Another typical application of dispersion modeling is a forensic study where the data are usually quite scarce. An example would be the modeling of the alleged releases of chemical warfare agents during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, where the source data had to rely on intelligence reports, and where Iraq had stopped reporting weather data to the World Meteorological Organization since the 1981 Iran-Iraq-war. Therefore the meteorological fields inside Iraq must be estimated by models such as prognostic mesoscale meteorological models, based on observational data from areas outside of Iraq, and using the global fields simulated by the global meteorological models as the initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale models. It was found that while comparing model predictions to observations in areas outside of Iraq, the predicted surface wind directions had errors between 30 to 90 deg, but the inter-model differences (or uncertainties) in the predicted surface wind directions inside Iraq, where there were no onsite data, were fairly constant at about 70 deg. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Coarse and fine aerosol source apportionment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoy, Maria Luiza D. P.; Godoy, José Marcus; Roldão, Luiz Alfredo; Soluri, Daniela S.; Donagemma, Raquel A.

The metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro is one of the twenty biggest urban agglomerations in the world, with 11 million inhabitants in the metropolitan area, and has a high population density, with 1700 hab. km -2. For this aerosol source apportionment study, the atmospheric aerosol sampling was performed at ten sites distributed in different locations of the metropolitan area from September/2003 to December/2005, with sampling during 24 h on a weekly basis. Stacked filter units (SFU) were used to collect fine and coarse aerosol particles with a flow rate of 17 L min -1. In both size fractions trace elements were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) as well as water-soluble species by Ion-Chromatography (IC). Also gravimetric analysis and reflectance measurements provided aerosol mass and black carbon concentrations. Very good detection limits for up to 42 species were obtained. Mean annual PM 10 mass concentration ranged from 20 to 37 μg m -3, values that are within the Brazilian air quality standards. Receptor models such as principal factor analysis, cluster analysis and absolute principal factor analysis were applied in order to identify and quantify the aerosol sources. For fine and coarse modes, circa of 100% of the measured mass was quantitatively apportioned to relatively few identified aerosol sources. A very similar and consistent source apportionment was obtained for both fine and coarse modes for all 10 sampling sites. Soil dust is an important component, accounting for 22-72% and for 25-48% of the coarse and fine mass respectively. On the other hand, anthropogenic sources as vehicle traffic and oil combustion represent a relatively high contribution (52-75%) of the fine aerosol mass. The joint use of ICP-MS and IC analysis of species in aerosols has proven to be reliable and feasible for the analysis of large amount of samples, and the coupling with receptor models provided an excellent method for quantitative aerosol source apportionment in large urban areas.

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba, South Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Emma; Mörtberg, Ulla; Karlström, Anders; Mangold, Mikael

2017-06-01

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 3.05, I-stat = 9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model ( p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.

What Air Quality Models Tell Us About Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Aldehydes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luecken, D.; Hutzell, W. T.; Phillips, S.

2010-12-01

Atmospheric aldehydes play important roles in several aspects of air quality: they are critical radical sources that drive ozone formation, they are hazardous air pollutants that are national drivers for cancer risk, they participate in aqueous chemistry and potentially aerosol formation, and are key species for evaluating the accuracy of isoprene emissions. For these reasons, it is important to accurately understand their sources and sinks, and the sensitivity of their concentrations to emission controls. While both compounds have been included in air quality modeling for many years, current, state-of-the-science chemical mechanisms have difficulty reproducing measured values of aldehydes, which calls into question the robustness of ozone, HAPs and aerosol predictions. In the past, we have attributed discrepancies to measurement errors, inventory errors, or the focus on high-NOx urban regimes. Despite improvements in all of these areas, the measurements still diverge from model predictions, with formaldehyde often underpredicted by 50% and acetaldehyde showing a large degree of scatter - from 20% overprediction to 50% underprediction. To better examine the sources of aldehydes, we implemented the new SAPRC07T mechanism in the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. This mechanism incorporates current recommendations for kinetic data and has the most detailed representation of product formation under a wide variety of conditions of any mechanism used in regional air quality models. We use model simulations to pinpoint where and when aldehyde concentrations tend to deviate from measurements. We demonstrate the role of secondary production versus primary emissions in aldehdye concentrations and find that secondary sources produce the largest deviations from measurements. We identify which VOCs are most responsible for aldehyde secondary production in the areas of the U.S. where the largest health effects are seen, and discuss how this affects consideration of control strategies.

Assimilating Leaf Area Index Estimates from Remote Sensing into the Simulations of a Cropping Systems Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial extrapolation of cropping systems models for regional crop growth and water use assessment and farm-level precision management has been limited by the vast model input requirements and the model sensitivity to parameter uncertainty. Remote sensing has been proposed as a viable source of spat...

Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter using organic compounds as tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauer, James J.; Rogge, Wolfgang F.; Hildemann, Lynn M.; Mazurek, Monica A.; Cass, Glen R.; Simoneit, Bernd R. T.

A chemical mass balance receptor model based on organic compounds has been developed that relates source contributions to airborne fine particle mass concentrations. Source contributions to the concentrations of specific organic compounds are revealed as well. The model is applied to four air quality monitoring sites in southern California using atmospheric organic compound concentration data and source test data collected specifically for the purpose of testing this model. The contributions of up to nine primary particle source types can be separately identified in ambient samples based on this method, and approximately 85% of the organic fine aerosol is assigned to primary sources on an annual average basis. The model provides information on source contributions to fine mass concentrations, fine organic aerosol concentrations and individual organic compound concentrations. The largest primary source contributors to fine particle mass concentrations in Los Angeles are found to include diesel engine exhaust, paved road dust, gasoline-powered vehicle exhaust, plus emissions from food cooking and wood smoke, with smaller contribution from tire dust, plant fragments, natural gas combustion aerosol, and cigarette smoke. Once these primary aerosol source contributions are added to the secondary sulfates, nitrates and organics present, virtually all of the annual average fine particle mass at Los Angeles area monitoring sites can be assigned to its source.

Patterns and age distribution of ground-water flow to streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Modica, E.; Reilly, T.E.; Pollock, D.W.

1997-01-01

Simulations of ground-water flow in a generic aquifer system were made to characterize the topology of ground-water flow in the stream subsystem and to evaluate its relation to deeper ground-water flow. The flow models are patterned after hydraulic characteristics of aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and are based on numerical solutions to three-dimensional, steady-state, unconfined flow. The models were used to evaluate the effects of aquifer horizontal-to-vertical hydraulic conductivity ratios, aquifer thickness, and areal recharge rates on flow in the stream subsystem. A particle tracker was used to determine flow paths in a stream subsystem, to establish the relation between ground-water seepage to points along a simulated stream and its source area of flow, and to determine ground-water residence time in stream subsystems. In a geometrically simple aquifer system with accretion, the source area of flow to streams resembles an elongated ellipse that tapers in the downgradient direction. Increased recharge causes an expansion of the stream subsystem. The source area of flow to the stream expands predominantly toward the stream headwaters. Baseflow gain is also increased along the reach of the stream. A thin aquifer restricts ground-water flow and causes the source area of flow to expand near stream headwaters and also shifts the start-of-flow to the drainage basin divide. Increased aquifer anisotropy causes a lateral expansion of the source area of flow to streams. Ground-water seepage to the stream channel originates both from near- and far-recharge locations. The range in the lengths of flow paths that terminate at a point on a stream increase in the downstream direction. Consequently, the age distribution of ground water that seeps into the stream is skewed progressively older with distance downstream. Base flow ia an integration of ground water with varying age and potentially different water quality, depending on the source within the drainage basin. The quantitative results presented indicate that this integration can have a wide and complex residence time range and source distribution.

Aerosol Sources, Absorption, and Intercontinental Transport: Synergies among Models, Remote Sensing, and Atmospheric Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Ginoux, Paul; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Kaufman, Yoram; chu, Allen; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia

2003-01-01

Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.

Aerosol Sources, Absorption, and Intercontinental Transport: Synergies Among Models, Remote Sensing, and Atmospheric Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Chu, Allen; Levy, Robert; Remer, Lorraine; Kaufman, Yoram; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Eck, Tom; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia

2004-01-01

Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, .biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERON" at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.

Research on precise modeling of buildings based on multi-source data fusion of air to ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongqiang; Niu, Lubiao; Yang, Shasha; Li, Lixue; Zhang, Xitong

2016-03-01

Aims at the accuracy problem of precise modeling of buildings, a test research was conducted based on multi-source data for buildings of the same test area , including top data of air-borne LiDAR, aerial orthophotos, and façade data of vehicle-borne LiDAR. After accurately extracted the top and bottom outlines of building clusters, a series of qualitative and quantitative analysis was carried out for the 2D interval between outlines. Research results provide a reliable accuracy support for precise modeling of buildings of air ground multi-source data fusion, on the same time, discussed some solution for key technical problems.

Mapping Emissions that Contribute to Air Pollution Using Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastien, L. A. J.; Mcdonald, B. C.; Brown, N. J.; Harley, R.

2014-12-01

The adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) is used to map emissions that contribute to air pollution at receptors of interest. Adjoint tools provide an efficient way to calculate the sensitivity of a model response to a large number of model inputs, a task that would require thousands of simulations using a more traditional forward sensitivity approach. Initial applications of this technique, demonstrated here, are to benzene and directly-emitted diesel particulate matter, for which atmospheric reactions are neglected. Emissions of these pollutants are strongly influenced by light-duty gasoline vehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks, respectively. We study air quality responses in three receptor areas where populations have been identified as especially susceptible to, and adversely affected by air pollution. Population-weighted air basin-wide responses for each pollutant are also evaluated for the entire San Francisco Bay area. High-resolution (1 km horizontal grid) emission inventories have been developed for on-road motor vehicle emission sources, based on observed traffic count data. Emission estimates represent diurnal, day of week, and seasonal variations of on-road vehicle activity, with separate descriptions for gasoline and diesel sources. Emissions that contribute to air pollution at each receptor have been mapped in space and time using the adjoint method. Effects on air quality of both relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) perturbations to underlying emission inventories are analyzed. The contributions of local versus upwind sources to air quality in each receptor area are quantified, and weekday/weekend and seasonal variations in the influence of emissions from upwind areas are investigated. The contribution of local sources to the total air pollution burden within the receptor areas increases from about 40% in the summer to about 50% in the winter due to increased atmospheric stagnation. The effectiveness of control strategies based on region-wide exposure metrics is compared with strategies that focus on improving air quality at specific receptors.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Saginaw Aquifer, Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Luukkonen, Carol L.; Nicholas, J.R.

1996-01-01

A numerical model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. This region includes a nine-township area surrounding Lansing, Michigan. The model simulates the regional response of the Saginaw aquifer to major groundwater withdrawals associated with public-supply wells. The Saginaw aquifer, which is in the Grand River and Saginaw Formations of Pennsylvanian age, is the primary source of ground water for Tri-County residents. The Saginaw aquifer is overlain by glacial deposits, which also are important ground-water sources in some locations. Flow in the Saginaw aquifer and the glacial deposits is simulated by discretizing the flow system into model cells arranged in two layers. Each cell, which corresponds to a land area of 0.0625 square mile, represents the locally averaged properties of the system. The spatial variation of hydraulic properties controlling ground-water flow was estimated by geostatistical analysis of 4,947 well logs. Parameter estimation, a form of nonlinear regression, was used to calibrate the flow model. Results of steady-state ground-water-flow simulations show close agreement between water flowing into and out of the model area for 1992 pumping conditions; standard error of the difference between simulated and measured heads is 14.7 feet. Simulation results for three alternative pumping scenarios for the year 2020 show that the glacial aquifer could be dewatered in places if hypothetical increases in pumping are not distributed throughout the Tri-County region. Contributing areas to public-supply wells in the nine-township area were delineated by a particle-tracking analysis. These areas cover about 121 square miles. Contributing areas for particles having travel times of 40 years or less cover about 42 square miles. Results of tritium sampling support results of model simulations to delineate contributing areas.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Quantification of groundwater recharge in urban environments.

PubMed

Tubau, Isabel; Vázquez-Suñé, Enric; Carrera, Jesús; Valhondo, Cristina; Criollo, Rotman

2017-08-15

Groundwater management in urban areas requires a detailed knowledge of the hydrogeological system as well as the adequate tools for predicting the amount of groundwater and water quality evolution. In that context, a key difference between urban and natural areas lies in recharge evaluation. A large number of studies have been published since the 1990s that evaluate recharge in urban areas, with no specific methodology. Most of these methods show that there are generally higher rates of recharge in urban settings than in natural settings. Methods such as mixing ratios or groundwater modeling can be used to better estimate the relative importance of different sources of recharge and may prove to be a good tool for total recharge evaluation. However, accurate evaluation of this input is difficult. The objective is to present a methodology to help overcome those difficulties, and which will allow us to quantify the variability in space and time of the recharge into aquifers in urban areas. Recharge calculations have been initially performed by defining and applying some analytical equations, and validation has been assessed based on groundwater flow and solute transport modeling. This methodology is applicable to complex systems by considering temporal variability of all water sources. This allows managers of urban groundwater to evaluate the relative contribution of different recharge sources at a city scale by considering quantity and quality factors. The methodology is applied to the assessment of recharge sources in the Barcelona city aquifers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models for vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer at Sohag, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ayman A.

2009-07-01

Groundwater resources in the Sohag area, Egypt are currently threatened by contamination from municipal and industrial activities, and agricultural pesticides. To cope with the growing population, there has been development in the desert zone on both sides of the Nile Valley including agricultural investment areas, wastewater disposal sites, new urban areas, and industry. Use of agrochemicals in the old cultivated and newly reclaimed lands and wastewater disposal sites in the study area represent the most hazardous contamination sources. Prevention of contamination and management of the Quaternary aquifer is urgently needed. To address vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer, the Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models have been used. The Generic DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 189, and the Pesticide DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 226. The results showed that 83% of the Quaternary aquifer is characterized by the high and very high vulnerability classes to municipal, industrial and agricultural pesticides contamination. It was found that nearly all the development projects are located in the very high vulnerability class areas. Management alternatives for the Quaternary aquifer may be improved by application of these models, allowing sensitive groundwater sources to be protected for continuing use in the future.

Evaluating remote sensing methods for targeting erosion in riparian corridors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

State agencies in the United States and other groups developing water quality programs have begun using satellite imagery with hydrologic/water quality modeling to identify possible critical source areas of erosion. To optimize the use of available funds, quantitative targeting of areas with the hig...

BTEX exposures in an area impacted by industrial and mobile sources: Source attribution and impact of averaging time.

PubMed

Presto, Albert A; Dallmann, Timothy R; Gu, Peishi; Rao, Unnati

2016-04-01

The impacts of emissions plumes from major industrial sources on black carbon (BC) and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylene isomers) exposures in communities located >10 km from the industrial source areas were identified with a combination of stationary measurements, source identification using positive matrix factorization (PMF), and dispersion modeling. The industrial emissions create multihour plume events of BC and BTEX at the measurement sites. PMF source apportionment, along with wind patterns, indicates that the observed pollutant plumes are the result of transport of industrial emissions under conditions of low boundary layer height. PMF indicates that industrial emissions contribute >50% of outdoor exposures of BC and BTEX species at the receptor sites. Dispersion modeling of BTEX emissions from known industrial sources predicts numerous overnight plumes and overall qualitative agreement with PMF analysis, but predicts industrial impacts at the measurement sites a factor of 10 lower than PMF. Nonetheless, exposures associated with pollutant plumes occur mostly at night, when residents are expected to be home but are perhaps unaware of the elevated exposure. Averaging data samples over long times typical of public health interventions (e.g., weekly or biweekly passive sampling) misapportions the exposure, reducing the impact of industrial plumes at the expense of traffic emissions, because the longer samples cannot resolve subdaily plumes. Suggestions are made for ways for future distributed pollutant mapping or intervention studies to incorporate high time resolution tools to better understand the potential impacts of industrial plumes. Emissions from industrial or other stationary sources can dominate air toxics exposures in communities both near the source and in downwind areas in the form of multihour plume events. Common measurement strategies that use highly aggregated samples, such as weekly or biweekly averages, are insensitive to such plume events and can lead to significant under apportionment of exposures from these sources.

Pairing top-down and bottom-up approaches to analyze catchment scale management of water quality and quantity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovette, J. P.; Duncan, J. M.; Band, L. E.

2016-12-01

Watershed management requires information on the hydrologic impacts of local to regional land use, land cover and infrastructure conditions. Management of runoff volumes, storm flows, and water quality can benefit from large scale, "top-down" screening tools, using readily available information, as well as more detailed, "bottom-up" process-based models that explicitly track local runoff production and routing from sources to receiving water bodies. Regional scale data, available nationwide through the NHD+, and top-down models based on aggregated catchment information provide useful tools for estimating regional patterns of peak flows, volumes and nutrient loads at the catchment level. Management impacts can be estimated with these models, but have limited ability to resolve impacts beyond simple changes to land cover proportions. Alternatively, distributed process-based models provide more flexibility in modeling management impacts by resolving spatial patterns of nutrient source, runoff generation, and uptake. This bottom-up approach can incorporate explicit patterns of land cover, drainage connectivity, and vegetation extent, but are typically applied over smaller areas. Here, we first model peak flood flows and nitrogen loads across North Carolina's 70,000 NHD+ catchments using USGS regional streamflow regression equations and the SPARROW model. We also estimate management impact by altering aggregated sources in each of these models. To address the missing spatial implications of the top-down approach, we further explore the demand for riparian buffers as a management strategy, simulating the accumulation of nutrient sources along flow paths and the potential mitigation of these sources through forested buffers. We use the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to model changes across several basins in North Carolina's Piedmont and Blue Ridge regions, ranging in size from 15 - 1,130 km2. The two approaches provide a complementary set of tools for large area screening, followed by smaller, more process based assessment and design tools.

Hydrodynamic simulation and particle-tracking techniques for identification of source areas to public-water intakes on the St. Clair-Detroit river waterway in the Great Lakes Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Koschik, John A.

2004-01-01

Source areas to public water intakes on the St. Clair-Detroit River Waterway were identified by use of hydrodynamic simulation and particle-tracking analyses to help protect public supplies from contaminant spills and discharges. This report describes techniques used to identify these areas and illustrates typical results using selected points on St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair. Parameterization of an existing two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (RMA2) of the St. Clair-Detroit River Waterway was enhanced to improve estimation of local flow velocities. Improvements in simulation accuracy were achieved by computing channel roughness coefficients as a function of flow depth, and determining eddy viscosity coefficients on the basis of velocity data. The enhanced parameterization was combined with refinements in the model mesh near 13 public water intakes on the St. Clair-Detroit River Waterway to improve the resolution of flow velocities while maintaining consistency with flow and water-level data. Scenarios representing a range of likely flow and wind conditions were developed for hydrodynamic simulation. Particle-tracking analyses combined advective movements described by hydrodynamic scenarios with random components associated with sub-grid-scale movement and turbulent mixing to identify source areas to public water intakes.

A conceptual framework for the sustainable management of wastewater in Harare, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Nhapi, I; Gijzen, H J; Siebel, M A

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to formulate an integrated wastewater management model for Harare, Zimbabwe, based on current thinking. This implies that wastewater is treated/disposed of as close to the source of generation as possible. Resource recovery and reuse in a local thriving urban agriculture are integrated into this model. Intervention strategies were considered for controlling water, nitrogen and phosphorus flows to the lake. In the formulation of strategies, Harare was divided into five major operational areas of high-, medium-, and low-density residential areas, and also commercial and industrial areas. Specific options were then considered to suit landuse, development constraints and socio-economic status for each area, within the overall criteria of limiting nutrient inflows into the downstream Lake Chivero. Flexible and differential solutions were developed in relation to built environment, population density, composition of users, ownership, future environmental demands, and technical, environmental, hygienic, social and organisational factors. Options considered include source control by the users (residents, industries, etc.), using various strategies like implementation of toilets with source separation, and natural methods of wastewater treatment. Other possible strategies are invoking better behaviour through fees and information, incentives for cleaner production, and user responsibility through education, legislative changes and stricter controls over industry.

Atmospheric PCDD/F concentration and source apportionment in typical rural, Agent Orange hotspots, and industrial areas in Vietnam.

PubMed

Ngo, Tuan Hung; Hien, To Thi; Thuan, Ngo Thi; Minh, Nguyen Hung; Chi, Kai Hsien

2017-09-01

Vietnam has a double burden of dioxin from both industrial sources and historical sources. To evaluate the concentration of PCDD/Fs in ambient air in different areas of Vietnam and their possible sources, atmospheric samples were collected from three areas namely Son La (rural area) and Da Nang (harbor - Agent Orange hotspot area), and Ho Chi Minh City (metropolitan - industrial city). Vapor and solid phases of PCDD/Fs were collected and analyzed following the TO-9A sampling method. Principal Component Analysis and Positive Matrix Factorization model were applied to characterize the possible source. The average concentrations of PCDD/Fs were found to be 21.3 ± 13 fg I-TEQ/m 3 in Son La (n = 32), 65.2 ± 34 fg I-TEQ/m 3 in Da Nang (n = 16) and 139 ± 84 fg I-TEQ/m 3 in Ho Chi Minh City (n = 8). The findings of this study targeted open burning (42%) and biomass burning (51%) as the major emission sources of PCDD/Fs in ambient air of Son La, Vietnam. Major possible sources of PCDD/Fs in Da Nang could be transportation activities (64%), however, the other factor (36%) was suspected to be contaminated with 2,3,7,8-TeCDD from Agent Orange. Most of PCDD/Fs emitted in Ho Chi Minh City related to industrial activities (93%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic Source Term Processes and Models for the Clearwater and Wineskin Tests, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carle, Steven F.

2011-05-04

This report describes the development, processes, and results of a hydrologic source term (HST) model for the CLEARWATER (U12q) and WINESKIN (U12r) tests located on Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (Figure 1.1). Of the 61 underground tests (involving 62 unique detonations) conducted on Rainier Mesa (Area 12) between 1957 and 1992 (USDOE, 2015), the CLEARWATER and WINESKIN tests present many unique features that warrant a separate HST modeling effort from other Rainier Mesa tests.

Evaluation of accuracy of synthetic waveforms for subduction-zone earthquakes by using a land-ocean unified 3D structure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Taro; Takenaka, Hiroshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

2018-06-01

Seismic wave propagation from shallow subduction-zone earthquakes can be strongly affected by 3D heterogeneous structures, such as oceanic water and sedimentary layers with irregular thicknesses. Synthetic waveforms must incorporate these effects so that they reproduce the characteristics of the observed waveforms properly. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of synthetic waveforms for small earthquakes in the source area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ( M JMA 9.0) at the Japan Trench. We compute the synthetic waveforms on the basis of a land-ocean unified 3D structure model using our heterogeneity, oceanic layer, and topography finite-difference method. In estimating the source parameters, we apply the first-motion augmented moment tensor (FAMT) method that we have recently proposed to minimize biases due to inappropriate source parameters. We find that, among several estimates, only the FAMT solutions are located very near the plate interface, which demonstrates the importance of using a 3D model for ensuring the self-consistency of the structure model, source position, and source mechanisms. Using several different filter passbands, we find that the full waveforms with periods longer than about 10 s can be reproduced well, while the degree of waveform fitting becomes worse for periods shorter than about 10 s. At periods around 4 s, the initial body waveforms can be modeled, but the later large-amplitude surface waves are difficult to reproduce correctly. The degree of waveform fitting depends on the source location, with better fittings for deep sources near land. We further examine the 3D sensitivity kernels: for the period of 12.8 s, the kernel shows a symmetric pattern with respect to the straight path between the source and the station, while for the period of 6.1 s, a curved pattern is obtained. Also, the range of the sensitive area becomes shallower for the latter case. Such a 3D spatial pattern cannot be predicted by 1D Earth models and indicates the strong effects of 3D heterogeneity on short-period ( ≲ 10s) waveforms. Thus, it would be necessary to consider such 3D effects when improving the structure and source models.

Source Model of the MJMA 6.5 Plate-Boundary Earthquake at the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, on April 1, 2016, Based on Strong Motion Waveform Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.

2017-12-01

An MJMA 6.5 earthquake occurred offshore the Kii peninsula, southwest Japan on April 1, 2016. This event was interpreted as a thrust-event on the plate-boundary along the Nankai trough where (Wallace et al., 2016). This event is the largest plate-boundary earthquake in the source region of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (MW 8.0) after that event. The significant point of this event regarding to seismic observation is that this event occurred beneath an ocean-bottom seismic network called DONET1, which is jointly operated by NIED and JAMSTEC. Since moderate-to-large earthquake of this focal type is very rare in this region in the last half century, it is a good opportunity to investigate the source characteristics relating to strong motion generation of subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes along the Nankai trough. Knowledge obtained from the study of this earthquake would contribute to ground motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment for future megathrust earthquakes expected in the Nankai trough. In this study, the source model of the 2016 offshore the Kii peninsula earthquake was estimated by broadband strong motion waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The source model is characterized by strong motion generation area (SMGA) (Miyake et al., 2003), which is defined as a rectangular area with high-stress drop or high slip-velocity. SMGA source model based on the empirical Green's function method has great potential to reproduce ground motion time history in broadband frequency range. We used strong motion data from offshore stations (DONET1 and LTBMS) and onshore stations (NIED F-net and DPRI). The records of an MJMA 3.2 aftershock at 13:04 on April 1, 2016 were selected for the empirical Green's functions. The source parameters of SMGA are optimized by the waveform modeling in the frequency range 0.4-10 Hz. The best estimate of SMGA size is 19.4 km2, and SMGA of this event does not follow the source scaling relationship for past plate-boundary earthquakes along the Japan trench, northeast Japan. This finding implies that the source characteristics of plate-boundary events in the Nankai trough are different from those in the Japan Trench, and it could be important information to consider regional variation in ground motion prediction.

Preliminary Results of the first European Source Apportionment intercomparison for Receptor and Chemical Transport Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belis, Claudio A.; Pernigotti, Denise; Pirovano, Guido

2017-04-01

Source Apportionment (SA) is the identification of ambient air pollution sources and the quantification of their contribution to pollution levels. This task can be accomplished using different approaches: chemical transport models and receptor models. Receptor models are derived from measurements and therefore are considered as a reference for primary sources urban background levels. Chemical transport model have better estimation of the secondary pollutants (inorganic) and are capable to provide gridded results with high time resolution. Assessing the performance of SA model results is essential to guarantee reliable information on source contributions to be used for the reporting to the Commission and in the development of pollution abatement strategies. This is the first intercomparison ever designed to test both receptor oriented models (or receptor models) and chemical transport models (or source oriented models) using a comprehensive method based on model quality indicators and pre-established criteria. The target pollutant of this exercise, organised in the frame of FAIRMODE WG 3, is PM10. Both receptor models and chemical transport models present good performances when evaluated against their respective references. Both types of models demonstrate quite satisfactory capabilities to estimate the yearly source contributions while the estimation of the source contributions at the daily level (time series) is more critical. Chemical transport models showed a tendency to underestimate the contribution of some single sources when compared to receptor models. For receptor models the most critical source category is industry. This is probably due to the variety of single sources with different characteristics that belong to this category. Dust is the most problematic source for Chemical Transport Models, likely due to the poor information about this kind of source in the emission inventories, particularly concerning road dust re-suspension, and consequently the little detail about the chemical components of this source used in the models. The sensitivity tests show that chemical transport models show better performances when displaying a detailed set of sources (14) than when using a simplified one (only 8). It was also observed that an enhanced vertical profiling can improve the estimation of specific sources, such as industry, under complex meteorological conditions and that an insufficient spatial resolution in urban areas can impact on the capabilities of models to estimate the contribution of diffuse primary sources (e.g. traffic). Both families of models identify traffic and biomass burning as the first and second most contributing categories, respectively, to elemental carbon. The results of this study demonstrate that the source apportionment assessment methodology developed by the JRC is applicable to any kind of SA model. The same methodology is implemented in the on-line DeltaSA tool to support source apportionment model evaluation (http://source-apportionment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/).

Impacts of rural development on Yellowstone wildlife: linking grizzly bear Ursus arctos demographics with projected residential growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Gude, Patricia H.; Landenburger, Lisa; Haroldson, Mark A.; Podruzny, Shannon

2012-01-01

Exurban development is consuming wildlife habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem with potential consequences to the long-term conservation of grizzly bears Ursus arctos. We assessed the impacts of alternative future land-use scenarios by linking an existing regression-based simulation model predicting rural development with a spatially explicit model that predicted bear survival. Using demographic criteria that predict population trajectory, we portioned habitats into either source or sink, and projected the loss of source habitat associated with four different build out (new home construction) scenarios through 2020. Under boom growth, we predicted that 12 km2 of source habitat were converted to sink habitat within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone (RZ), 189 km2 were converted within the current distribution of grizzly bears outside of the RZ, and 289 km2 were converted in the area outside the RZ identified as suitable grizzly bear habitat. Our findings showed that extremely low densities of residential development created sink habitats. We suggest that tools, such as those outlined in this article, in addition to zoning and subdivision regulation may prove more practical, and the most effective means of retaining large areas of undeveloped land and conserving grizzly bear source habitat will likely require a landscape-scale approach. We recommend a focus on land conservation efforts that retain open space (easements, purchases and trades) coupled with the implementation of ‘bear community programmes’ on an ecosystem wide basis in an effort to minimize human-bear conflicts, minimize management-related bear mortalities associated with preventable conflicts and to safeguard human communities. Our approach has application to other species and areas, and it has illustrated how spatially explicit demographic models can be combined with models predicting land-use change to help focus conservation priorities.

Tectono-thermal Evolution of the Lower Paleozoic Petroleum Source Rocks in the Southern Lublin Trough: Implications for Shale Gas Exploration from Maturity Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botor, Dariusz

2018-03-01

The Lower Paleozoic basins of eastern Poland have recently been the focus of intensive exploration for shale gas. In the Lublin Basin potential unconventional play is related to Lower Silurian source rocks. In order to assess petroleum charge history of these shale gas reservoirs, 1-D maturity modeling has been performed. In the Łopiennik IG-1 well, which is the only well that penetrated Lower Paleozoic strata in the study area, the uniform vitrinite reflectance values within the Paleozoic section are interpreted as being mainly the result of higher heat flow in the Late Carboniferous to Early Permian times and 3500 m thick overburden eroded due to the Variscan inversion. Moreover, our model has been supported by zircon helium and apatite fission track dating. The Lower Paleozoic strata in the study area reached maximum temperature in the Late Carboniferous time. Accomplished tectono-thermal model allowed establishing that petroleum generation in the Lower Silurian source rocks developed mainly in the Devonian - Carboniferous period. Whereas, during Mesozoic burial, hydrocarbon generation processes did not develop again. This has negative influence on potential durability of shale gas reservoirs.

Recommended Henry’s Law Constants for Non-Groundwater Pathways Models in GoldSim

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J.

This memorandum documents the source and numerical value of Henry’s law constants for volatile radionuclides of interest used in the non-groundwater (air and radon) pathways models for the 2018 E-Area Performance Assessment.

Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Yue, Chao; Gasser, Thomas; Peng, Shushi; Bastos, Ana

2018-01-01

Bookkeeping models are used to estimate land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) carbon fluxes (ELULCC). The uncertainty of bookkeeping models partly arises from data used to define response curves (usually from local data) and their representativeness for application to large regions. Here, we compare biomass recovery curves derived from a recent synthesis of secondary forest plots in Latin America by Poorter et al. (2016) with the curves used previously in bookkeeping models from Houghton (1999) and Hansis et al. (2015). We find that the two latter models overestimate the long-term (100 years) vegetation carbon density of secondary forest by about 25 %. We also use idealized LULCC scenarios combined with these three different response curves to demonstrate the importance of considering gross forest area changes instead of net forest area changes for estimating regional ELULCC. In the illustrative case of a net gain in forest area composed of a large gross loss and a large gross gain occurring during a single year, the initial gross loss has an important legacy effect on ELULCC so that the system can be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere long after the initial forest area change. We show the existence of critical values of the ratio of gross area change over net area change (γAnetAgross), above which cumulative ELULCC is a net CO2 source rather than a sink for a given time horizon after the initial perturbation. These theoretical critical ratio values derived from simulations of a bookkeeping model are compared with observations from the 30 m resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper data of gross and net forest area change in the Amazon. This allows us to diagnose areas in which current forest gains with a large land turnover will still result in LULCC carbon emissions in 20, 50 and 100 years.

Temporal evolution of ultrafine particles and of alveolar deposited surface area from main indoor combustion and non-combustion sources in a model room.

PubMed

Manigrasso, Maurizio; Vitali, Matteo; Protano, Carmela; Avino, Pasquale

2017-11-15

Aerosol number size distributions, PM mass concentrations, alveolar deposited surface areas (ADSAs) and VOC concentrations were measured in a model room when aerosol was emitted by sources frequently encountered in indoor environments. Both combustion and non-combustion sources were considered. The most intense aerosol emission occurred when combustion sources were active (as high as 4.1×10 7 particlescm -3 for two meat grilling sessions; the first with exhaust ventilation, the second without). An intense spike generation of nucleation particles occurred when appliances equipped with brush electric motors were operating (as high as 10 6 particlescm -3 on switching on an electric drill). Average UFP increments over the background value were highest for electric appliances (5-12%) and lowest for combustion sources (as low as -24% for tobacco cigarette smoke). In contrast, average increments in ADSA were highest for combustion sources (as high as 3.2×10 3 μm 2 cm -3 for meat grilling without exhaust ventilation) and lowest for electric appliances (20-90μm 2 cm -3 ). The health relevance of such particles is associated to their ability to penetrate cellular structures and elicit inflammatory effects mediated through oxidative stress in a way dependent on their surface area. The highest VOC concentrations were measured (PID probe) for cigarette smoke (8ppm) and spray air freshener (10ppm). The highest PM mass concentration (PM 1 ) was measured for citronella candle burning (as high as 7.6mgm -3 ). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolathayar, Sreevalsa; Sitharam, T. G.; Vipin, K. S.

2012-10-01

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6°-38°N and 68°-98°E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 10 × 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Attenuation Model Using the Large-N Array from the Source Physics Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atterholt, J.; Chen, T.; Snelson, C. M.; Mellors, R. J.

2017-12-01

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consists of a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. SPE seeks to better characterize the influence of subsurface heterogeneities on seismic wave propagation and energy dissipation from explosions. As a part of this experiment, SPE-5, a 5000 kg TNT equivalent chemical explosion, was detonated in 2016. During the SPE-5 experiment, a Large-N array of 996 geophones (half 3-component and half z-component) was deployed. This array covered an area that includes loosely consolidated alluvium (weak rock) and weathered granite (hard rock), and recorded the SPE-5 explosion as well as 53 weight drops. We use these Large-N recordings to develop an attenuation model of the area to better characterize how geologic structures influence source energy partitioning. We found a clear variation in seismic attenuation for different rock types: high attenuation (low Q) for alluvium and low attenuation (high Q) for granite. The attenuation structure correlates well with local geology, and will be incorporated into the large simulation effort of the SPE program to validate predictive models. (LA-UR-17-26382)

A Study of Regional Waveform Calibration in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Luccio, F.; Pino, A.; Thio, H.

2002-12-01

We modeled Pnl phases from several moderate magnitude events in the eastern Mediterranean to test methods and to develop path calibrations for source determination. The study region spanning from the eastern part of the Hellenic arc to the eastern Anatolian fault is mostly interested by moderate earthquakes, that can produce relevant damages. The selected area consists of several tectonic environment, which produces increased level of difficulty in waveform modeling. The results of this study are useful for the analysis of regional seismicity and for seismic hazard as well, in particular because very few broadband seismic stations are available in the selected area. The obtained velocity model gives a 30 km crustal tickness and low upper mantle velocities. The applied inversion procedure to determine the source mechanism has been successful, also in terms of discrimination of depth, for the entire range of selected paths. We conclude that using the true calibration of the seismic structure and high quality broadband data, it is possible to determine the seismic source in terms of mechanism, even with a single station.

Issues concerning centralized versus decentralized power deployment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metcalf, Kenneth J.; Harty, Richard B.; Robin, James F.

1991-01-01

The results of a study of proposed lunar base architectures to identify issues concerning centralized and decentralized power system deployment options are presented. The power system consists of the energy producing system (power plant), the power conditioning components used to convert the generated power into the form desired for transmission, the transmission lines that conduct this power from the power sources to the loads, and the primary power conditioning hardware located at the user end. Three power system architectures, centralized, hybrid, and decentralized, were evaluated during the course of this study. Candidate power sources were characterized with respect to mass and radiator area. Two electrical models were created for each architecture to identify the preferred method of power transmission, dc or ac. Each model allowed the transmission voltage level to be varied at assess the impact on power system mass. The ac power system models also permitted the transmission line configurations and placements to determine the best conductor construction and installation location. Key parameters used to evaluate each configuration were power source and power conditioning component efficiencies, masses, and radiator areas; transmission line masses and operating temperatures; and total system mass.

Integrating multiple remote sensing and surface measurements with models, to quantify and constrain the past decade's total 4D aerosol source profile and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, J. B.; Lan, R.; Lin, C.; Ng, D. H. L.; Lim, A.

2017-12-01

A multi-instrument, inverse modeling approach, is employed to identify and quantify large-scale global biomass urban aerosol emissions profiles. The approach uses MISR, MODIS, OMI and MOPITT, with data from 2006 to 2016, to generate spatial and temporal loads, as well as some information about composition. The method is able to identify regions impacted by stable urban sources, changing urban sources, intense fires, and linear-combinations. Subsequent quantification is a unified field, leading to a less biased profile, with the result not requiring arbitrary scaling to match long-term means. Additionally, the result reasonably reproduces inter and intra annual variation. Both meso-scale (WRF-CHEM) and global (MIT-AERO, multi-mode, multi-mixing state aerosol model) models of aerosol transport, chemistry, and physics, are used to generate resulting 4D aerosol fields. Comparisons with CALIOP, AERONET, and surface chemical and aerosol networks, provide unbiased confirmation, while column and vertical loadings provide additional feedback. There are three significant results. First, there is a reduction in sources over existing urban areas in East Asia. Second, there is an increase in sources over new urban areas in South, South East, and East Asia. Third, that there is an increase in fire sources in South and South East Asia. There are other initial findings relevant to the global tropics, which have not been as deeply investigated. The results improve the model match with both the mean and variation, which is essential if we hope to understand seasonal extremes. The results also quantify impacts of both local and long-range sources. This is of extreme urgency, in particular in developing nations, where there are considerable contributions from long-range or otherwise unknown sources, that impact hundreds of millions of people throughout Asia. It is hoped that the approach provided here can help us to make critical decisions about total sources, as well as point out the many missing scientific and analytical issues still required to address.

Modeling multi-source flooding disaster and developing simulation framework in Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Cui, X.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

Most Delta regions of the world are densely populated and with advanced economies. However, due to impact of the multi-source flooding (upstream flood, rainstorm waterlogging, storm surge flood), the Delta regions is very vulnerable. The academic circles attach great importance to the multi-source flooding disaster in these areas. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in south China is selected as the research area. Based on analysis of natural and environmental characteristics data of the Delta urban agglomeration(remote sensing data, land use data, topographic map, etc.), hydrological monitoring data, research of the uneven distribution and process of regional rainfall, the relationship between the underlying surface and the parameters of runoff, effect of flood storage pattern, we use an automatic or semi-automatic method for dividing spatial units to reflect the runoff characteristics in urban agglomeration, and develop an Multi-model Ensemble System in changing environment, including urban hydrologic model, parallel computational 1D&2D hydrodynamic model, storm surge forecast model and other professional models, the system will have the abilities like real-time setting a variety of boundary conditions, fast and real-time calculation, dynamic presentation of results, powerful statistical analysis function. The model could be optimized and improved by a variety of verification methods. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471427); Special Basic Research Key Fund for Central Public Scientific Research Institutes.

Source Identification and Apportionment of Trace Elements in Soils in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Shao, Shuai; Hu, Bifeng; Fu, Zhiyi; Wang, Jiayu; Lou, Ge; Zhou, Yue; Jin, Bin; Li, Yan; Shi, Zhou

2018-06-12

Trace elements pollution has attracted a lot of attention worldwide. However, it is difficult to identify and apportion the sources of multiple element pollutants over large areas because of the considerable spatial complexity and variability in the distribution of trace elements in soil. In this study, we collected total of 2051 topsoil (0⁻20 cm) samples, and analyzed the general pollution status of soils from the Yangtze River Delta, Southeast China. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), a finite mixture distribution model (FMDM), and geostatistical tools to identify and quantitatively apportion the sources of seven kinds of trace elements (chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and arsenic (As)) in soil. The PCA results indicated that the trace elements in soil in the study area were mainly from natural, multi-pollutant and industrial sources. The FMDM also fitted three sub log-normal distributions. The results from the two models were quite similar: Cr, As, and Ni were mainly from natural sources caused by parent material weathering; Cd, Cu, and Zu were mainly from mixed sources, with a considerable portion from anthropogenic activities such as traffic pollutants, domestic garbage, and agricultural inputs, and Hg was mainly from industrial wastes and pollutants.

The influence of the synoptic regime on stable water isotopes in precipitation at Dome C, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Elisabeth; Dittmann, Anna; Stenni, Barbara; Powers, Jordan G.; Manning, Kevin W.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Valt, Mauro; Cagnati, Anselmo; Grigioni, Paolo; Scarchilli, Claudio

2017-10-01

The correct derivation of paleotemperatures from ice cores requires exact knowledge of all processes involved before and after the deposition of snow and the subsequent formation of ice. At the Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C, a unique data set of daily precipitation amount, type, and stable water isotope ratios is available that enables us to study in detail atmospheric processes that influence the stable water isotope ratio of precipitation. Meteorological data from both automatic weather station and a mesoscale atmospheric model were used to investigate how different atmospheric flow patterns determine the precipitation parameters. A classification of synoptic situations that cause precipitation at Dome C was established and, together with back-trajectory calculations, was utilized to estimate moisture source areas. With the resulting source area conditions (wind speed, sea surface temperature, and relative humidity) as input, the precipitation stable isotopic composition was modeled using the so-called Mixed Cloud Isotope Model (MCIM). The model generally underestimates the depletion of 18O in precipitation, which was not improved by using condensation temperature rather than inversion temperature. Contrary to the assumption widely used in ice core studies, a more northern moisture source does not necessarily mean stronger isotopic fractionation. This is due to the fact that snowfall events at Dome C are often associated with warm air advection due to amplification of planetary waves, which considerably increases the site temperature and thus reduces the temperature difference between source area and deposition site. In addition, no correlation was found between relative humidity at the moisture source and the deuterium excess in precipitation. The significant difference in the isotopic signal of hoarfrost and diamond dust was shown to disappear after removal of seasonality. This study confirms the results of an earlier study carried out at Dome Fuji with a shorter data set using the same methods.

Aerosols in the Atmosphere: Sources, Transport, and Multi-decadal Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Bian, H.; Kucsera, T.

2016-01-01

We present our recent studies with global modeling and analysis of atmospheric aerosols. We have used the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and satellite and in situ data to investigate (1) long-term variations of aerosols over polluted and dust source regions and downwind ocean areas in the past three decades and the cause of the changes and (2) anthropogenic and volcanic contributions to the sulfate aerosol in the upper tropospherelower stratosphere.

Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico from Streams in the South-Central United States1

PubMed Central

Rebich, Richard A; Houston, Natalie A; Mize, Scott V; Pearson, Daniel K; Ging, Patricia B; Evan Hornig, C

2011-01-01

Abstract SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to estimate nutrient inputs [total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP)] to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico from streams in the South-Central United States (U.S.). This area included drainages of the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf hydrologic regions. The models were standardized to reflect nutrient sources and stream conditions during 2002. Model predictions of nutrient loads (mass per time) and yields (mass per area per time) generally were greatest in streams in the eastern part of the region and along reaches near the Texas and Louisiana shoreline. The Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River watersheds, which drain nearly two-thirds of the conterminous U.S., delivered the largest nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, as expected. However, the three largest delivered TN yields were from the Trinity River/Galveston Bay, Calcasieu River, and Aransas River watersheds, while the three largest delivered TP yields were from the Calcasieu River, Mermentau River, and Trinity River/Galveston Bay watersheds. Model output indicated that the three largest sources of nitrogen from the region were atmospheric deposition (42%), commercial fertilizer (20%), and livestock manure (unconfined, 17%). The three largest sources of phosphorus were commercial fertilizer (28%), urban runoff (23%), and livestock manure (confined and unconfined, 23%). PMID:22457582

Modeling of surface dust concentration in snow cover at industrial area using neural networks and kriging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeev, A. P.; Tarasov, D. A.; Buevich, A. G.; Shichkin, A. V.; Tyagunov, A. G.; Medvedev, A. N.

2017-06-01

Modeling of spatial distribution of pollutants in the urbanized territories is difficult, especially if there are multiple emission sources. When monitoring such territories, it is often impossible to arrange the necessary detailed sampling. Because of this, the usual methods of analysis and forecasting based on geostatistics are often less effective. Approaches based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) demonstrate the best results under these circumstances. This study compares two models based on ANNs, which are multilayer perceptron (MLP) and generalized regression neural networks (GRNNs) with the base geostatistical method - kriging. Models of the spatial dust distribution in the snow cover around the existing copper quarry and in the area of emissions of a nickel factory were created. To assess the effectiveness of the models three indices were used: the mean absolute error (MAE), the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE). Taking into account all indices the model of GRNN proved to be the most accurate which included coordinates of the sampling points and the distance to the likely emission source as input parameters for the modeling. Maps of spatial dust distribution in the snow cover were created in the study area. It has been shown that the models based on ANNs were more accurate than the kriging, particularly in the context of a limited data set.

Simulation of ground-water flow to assess geohydrologic factors and their effect on source-water areas for bedrock wells in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Stone, Janet Radway

2005-01-01

Generic ground-water-flow simulation models show that geohydrologic factors?fracture types, fracture geometry, and surficial materials?affect the size, shape, and location of source-water areas for bedrock wells. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Public Health, ground-water flow was simulated to bedrock wells in three settings?on hilltops and hillsides with no surficial aquifer, in a narrow valley with a surficial aquifer, and in a broad valley with a surficial aquifer?to show how different combinations of geohydrologic factors in different topographic settings affect the dimensions and locations of source-water areas in Connecticut. Three principal types of fractures are present in bedrock in Connecticut?(1) Layer-parallel fractures, which developed as partings along bedding in sedimentary rock and compositional layering or foliation in metamorphic rock (dips of these fractures can be gentle or steep); (2) unroofing joints, which developed as strain-release fractures parallel to the land surface as overlying rock was removed by erosion through geologic time; and (3) cross fractures and joints, which developed as a result of tectonically generated stresses that produced typically near-vertical or steeply dipping fractures. Fracture geometry is defined primarily by the presence or absence of layering in the rock unit, and, if layered, by the angle of dip in the layering. Where layered rocks dip steeply, layer-parallel fracturing generally is dominant; unroofing joints also are typically well developed. Where layered rocks dip gently, layer-parallel fracturing also is dominant, and connections among these fractures are provided only by the cross fractures. In gently dipping rocks, unroofing joints generally do not form as a separate fracture set; instead, strain release from unroofing has occurred along gently dipping layer-parallel fractures, enhancing their aperture. In nonlayered and variably layered rocks, layer-parallel fracturing is absent or poorly developed; fracturing is dominated by well-developed subhorizontal unroofing joints and steeply dipping, tectonically generated fractures and (or) cooling joints. Cross fractures (or cooling joints) in nonlayered and variably layered rocks have more random orientations than in layered rocks. Overall, nonlayered or variably layered rocks do not have a strongly developed fracture direction. Generic ground-water-flow simulation models showed that fracture geometry and other geohydrologic factors affect the dimensions and locations of source-water areas for bedrock wells. In general, source-water areas to wells reflect the direction of ground-water flow, which mimics the land-surface topography. Source-water areas to wells in a hilltop setting were not affected greatly by simulated fracture zones, except for an extensive vertical fracture zone. Source-water areas to wells in a hillside setting were not affected greatly by simulated fracture zones, except for the combination of a subhorizontal fracture zone and low bedrock vertical hydraulic conductivity, as might be the case where an extensive subhorizontal fracture zone is not connected or is poorly connected to the surface through vertical fractures. Source-water areas to wells in a narrow valley setting reflect complex ground-water-flow paths. The typical flow path originates in the uplands and passes through either till or bedrock into the surficial aquifer, although only a small area of the surficial aquifer actually contributes water to the well. Source-water areas in uplands can include substantial areas on both sides of a river. Source-water areas for wells in this setting are affected mainly by the rate of ground-water recharge and by the degree of anisotropy. Source-water areas to wells in a broad valley setting (bedrock with a low angle of dip) are affected greatly by fracture properties. The effect of a given fracture is to channel the

Study of landscape patterns of variation and optimization based on non-point source pollution control in an estuary.

PubMed

Jiang, Mengzhen; Chen, Haiying; Chen, Qinghui; Wu, Haiyan

2014-10-15

Appropriate increases in the "sink" of a landscape can reduce the risk of non-point source pollution (NPSP) to the sea at relatively lower costs and at a higher efficiency. Based on high-resolution remote sensing image data taken between 2003 and 2008, we analyzed the "source" and "sink" landscape pattern variations of nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants in the Jiulongjiang estuary region. The contribution to the sea and distribution of each pollutant in the region was calculated using the LCI and mGLCI models. The results indicated that an increased amount of pollutants was contributed to the sea, and the "source" area of the nitrogen NPSP in the study area increased by 32.75 km(2). We also propose a landscape pattern optimization to reduce pollution in the Jiulongjiang estuary in 2008 through the conversion of cultivated land with slopes greater than 15° and paddy fields near rivers, and an increase in mangrove areas. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter using organic compounds as tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauer, James J.; Rogge, Wolfgang F.; Hildemann, Lynn M.; Mazurek, Monica A.; Cass, Glen R.; Simoneit, Bernd R. T.

A chemical mass balance receptor model based on organic compounds has been developed that relates sours; contributions to airborne fine particle mass concentrations. Source contributions to the concentrations of specific organic compounds are revealed as well. The model is applied to four air quality monitoring sites in southern California using atmospheric organic compound concentration data and source test data collected specifically for the purpose of testing this model. The contributions of up to nine primary particle source types can be separately identified in ambient samples based on this method, and approximately 85% of the organic fine aerosol is assigned to primary sources on an annual average basis. The model provides information on source contributions to fine mass concentrations, fine organic aerosol concentrations and individual organic compound concentrations. The largest primary source contributors to fine particle mass concentrations in Los Angeles are found to include diesel engine exhaust, paved road dust, gasoline-powered vehicle exhaust, plus emissions from food cooking and wood smoke, with smaller contribution:; from tire dust, plant fragments, natural gas combustion aerosol, and cigarette smoke. Once these primary aerosol source contributions are added to the secondary sulfates, nitrates and organics present, virtually all of the annual average fine particle mass at Los Angeles area monitoring sites can be assigned to its source.

Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

2018-01-01

The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

Reactive nitrogen oxides in the southeast United States national parks: source identification, origin, and process budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Daniel Quansong; Kang, Daiwen; Aneja, Viney P.; Ray, John D.

2005-01-01

We present in this study both measurement-based and modeling analyses for elucidation of source attribution, influence areas, and process budget of reactive nitrogen oxides at two rural southeast United States sites (Great Smoky Mountains national park (GRSM) and Mammoth Cave national park (MACA)). Availability of nitrogen oxides is considered as the limiting factor to ozone production in these areas and the relative source contribution of reactive nitrogen oxides from point or mobile sources is important in understanding why these areas have high ozone. Using two independent observation-based techniques, multiple linear regression analysis and emission inventory analysis, we demonstrate that point sources contribute a minimum of 23% of total NOy at GRSM and 27% at MACA. The influence areas for these two sites, or origins of nitrogen oxides, are investigated using trajectory-cluster analysis. The result shows that air masses from the West and Southwest sweep over GRSM most frequently, while pollutants transported from the eastern half (i.e., East, Northeast, and Southeast) have limited influence (<10% out of all air masses) on air quality at GRSM. The processes responsible for formation and removal of reactive nitrogen oxides are investigated using a comprehensive 3-D air quality model (Multiscale Air Quality SImulation Platform (MAQSIP)). The NOy contribution associated with chemical transformations to NOz and O3, based on process budget analysis, is as follows: 32% and 84% for NOz, and 26% and 80% for O3 at GRSM and MACA, respectively. The similarity between NOz and O3 process budgets suggests a close association between nitrogen oxides and effective O3 production at these rural locations.

pH Control for Effective Anaerobic Bioremediation of Chlorinated Solvents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, C.; Barry, D.; Gerhard, J. I.; Kouznetsova, I.

2007-12-01

SABRE (Source Area BioREmediation) is a 4-year collaborative project that aims to evaluate the performance of enhanced anaerobic bioremediation for the treatment of chlorinated solvent DNAPL source areas. The project focuses on a pilot scale demonstration at a trichloroethene (TCE) DNAPL field site, and includes complementary laboratory and modelling studies. Organic acids and hydrogen ions (HCl) typically build up in the treatment zone during anaerobic bioremediation. In aquifer systems with relatively low buffering capacity the generation of these products can cause significant groundwater acidification thereby inhibiting dehalogenating activity. Where the soil buffering capacity is exceeded, addition of buffer may be needed for the effective continuation of TCE degradation. As an aid to the design of remediation schemes, a geochemical model was designed to predict the amount of buffer required to maintain the source zone pH at a suitable level for dechlorinating bacteria (i.e. > 6.5). The model accounts for the amount of TCE to be degraded, site water chemistry, type of organic amendment and soil mineralogy. It assumes complete dechlorination of TCE, and further considers mineral dissolution and precipitation kinetics. The model is applicable to a wide range of sites. For illustration we present results pertinent to the SABRE field site. Model results indicate that, for the extensive dechlorination expected in proximity to the SABRE DNAPL source zone, significant buffer addition may be necessary. Additional simulations are performed to identify buffer requirements over a wider range of field conditions.

Vulnerability Assessment of Groundwater Resources by Nutrient Source Apportionment to Individual Groundwater Wells: A Case Study in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayub, R.; Obenour, D. R.; Keyworth, A. J.; Genereux, D. P.; Mahinthakumar, K.

2016-12-01

Groundwater contamination by nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) is a major concern in water table aquifers that underlie agricultural areas in the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. High nutrient concentrations leaching into shallow groundwater can lead to human health problems and eutrophication of receiving surface waters. Liquid manure from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) stored in open-air lagoons and applied to spray fields can be a significant source of nutrients to groundwater, along with septic waste. In this study, we developed a model-based methodology for source apportionment and vulnerability assessment using sparse groundwater quality sampling measurements for Duplin County, North Carolina (NC), obtained by the NC Department of Environmental Quality (NC DEQ). This model provides information relevant to management by estimating the nutrient transport through the aquifer from different sources and addressing the uncertainty of nutrient contaminant propagation. First, the zones of influence (dependent on nutrient pathways) for individual groundwater monitoring wells were identified using a two-dimensional vertically averaged groundwater flow and transport model incorporating geologic uncertainty for the surficial aquifer system. A multiple linear regression approach is then applied to estimate the contribution weights for different nutrient source types using the nutrient measurements from monitoring wells and the potential sources within each zone of influence. Using the source contribution weights and their uncertainty, a probabilistic vulnerability assessment of the study area due to nutrient contamination is performed. Knowledge of the contribution of different nutrient sources to contamination at receptor locations (e.g., private wells, municipal wells, stream beds etc.) will be helpful in planning and implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.

Evaluation of the TBET model for improving P-indices in southern states

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Management of agricultural nonpoint source phosphorus (P) requires identification of fields susceptible to P loss. P-Indices are the most common tools used to identify critical source areas of P loss. However, the success of the P-index approach is impeded by insufficient measured P loss data. Simul...

Multiscale geomorphometric modeling of Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florinsky, I. V.

2018-02-01

Topography is one of the key characteristics of a planetary body. Geomorphometry deals with quantitative modeling and analysis of the topographic surface and relationships between topography and other natural components of landscapes. The surface of Mercury is systematically studied by interpretation of images acquired during the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission. However, the Mercurian surface is still little explored by methods of geomorphometry. In this paper, we evaluate the Mercury MESSENGER Global DEM MSGR_DEM_USG_SC_I_V02 - a global digital elevation model (DEM) of Mercury with the resolution of 0.015625° - as a source for geomorphometric modeling of this planet. The study was performed at three spatial scales: the global, regional (the Caloris basin), and local (the Pantheon Fossae area) ones. As the initial data, we used three DEMs of these areas with resolutions of 0.25°, 0.0625°, and 0.015625°, correspondingly. The DEMs were extracted from the MESSENGER Global DEM. From the DEMs, we derived digital models of several fundamental morphometric variables, such as: slope gradient, horizontal curvature, vertical curvature, minimal curvature, maximal curvature, catchment area, and dispersive area. The morphometric maps obtained represent peculiarities of the Mercurian topography in different ways, according to the physical and mathematical sense of a particular variable. Geomorphometric models are a rich source of information on the Mercurian surface. These data can be utilized to study evolution and internal structure of the planet, for example, to visualize and quantify regional topographic differences as well as to refine geological boundaries.

Nonaqueous Phase Liquid Dissolution in Porous Media: Multi-Scale Effects of Multi-Component Dissolution Kinetics on Cleanup Time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McNab, W; Ezzedine, S; Detwiler, R

2007-02-26

Industrial organic solvents such as trichloroethylene (TCE) and tetrachloroethylene (PCE) constitute a principal class of groundwater contaminants. Cleanup of groundwater plume source areas associated with these compounds is problematic, in part, because the compounds often exist in the subsurface as dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). Ganglia (or 'blobs') of DNAPL serve as persistent sources of contaminants that are difficult to locate and remediate (e.g. Fenwick and Blunt, 1998). Current understanding of the physical and chemical processes associated with dissolution of DNAPLs in the subsurface is incomplete and yet is critical for evaluating long-term behavior of contaminant migration, groundwater cleanup, andmore » the efficacy of source area cleanup technologies. As such, a goal of this project has been to contribute to this critical understanding by investigating the multi-phase, multi-component physics of DNAPL dissolution using state-of-the-art experimental and computational techniques. Through this research, we have explored efficient and accurate conceptual and numerical models for source area contaminant transport that can be used to better inform the modeling of source area contaminants, including those at the LLNL Superfund sites, to re-evaluate existing remediation technologies, and to inspire or develop new remediation strategies. The problem of DNAPL dissolution in natural porous media must be viewed in the context of several scales (Khachikian and Harmon, 2000), including the microscopic level at which capillary forces, viscous forces, and gravity/buoyancy forces are manifested at the scale of individual pores (Wilson and Conrad, 1984; Chatzis et al., 1988), the mesoscale where dissolution rates are strongly influenced by the local hydrodynamics, and the field-scale. Historically, the physico-chemical processes associated with DNAPL dissolution have been addressed through the use of lumped mass transfer coefficients which attempt to quantify the dissolution rate in response to local dissolved-phase concentrations distributed across the source area using a volume-averaging approach (Figure 1). The fundamental problem with the lumped mass transfer parameter is that its value is typically derived empirically through column-scale experiments that combine the effects of pore-scale flow, diffusion, and pore-scale geometry in a manner that does not provide a robust theoretical basis for upscaling. In our view, upscaling processes from the pore-scale to the field-scale requires new computational approaches (Held and Celia, 2001) that are directly linked to experimental studies of dissolution at the pore scale. As such, our investigation has been multi-pronged, combining theory, experiments, numerical modeling, new data analysis approaches, and a synthesis of previous studies (e.g. Glass et al, 2001; Keller et al., 2002) aimed at quantifying how the mechanisms controlling dissolution at the pore-scale control the long-term dissolution of source areas at larger scales.« less

Porcine cluster of differentiation (CD) Markers 2017 Update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pigs are a major source of food worldwide; preventing and treating their infectious diseases is essential, requiring a thorough understanding of porcine immunity. The use of pigs as models for human physiology is a growing area; progress in this area has been limited because the immune toolkit is no...

Comparison of Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in Giampilieri (NE Sicily, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; Esposito, Carlo; Scarascia-Mugnozza, Gabriele

2015-11-01

The aim of this work is to define reliable susceptibility models for shallow landslides using Logistic Regression and Random Forests multivariate statistical techniques. The study area, located in North-East Sicily, was hit on October 1st 2009 by a severe rainstorm (225 mm of cumulative rainfall in 7 h) which caused flash floods and more than 1000 landslides. Several small villages, such as Giampilieri, were hit with 31 fatalities, 6 missing persons and damage to buildings and transportation infrastructures. Landslides, mainly types such as earth and debris translational slides evolving into debris flows, were triggered on steep slopes and involved colluvium and regolith materials which cover the underlying metamorphic bedrock. The work has been carried out with the following steps: i) realization of a detailed event landslide inventory map through field surveys coupled with observation of high resolution aerial colour orthophoto; ii) identification of landslide source areas; iii) data preparation of landslide controlling factors and descriptive statistics based on a bivariate method (Frequency Ratio) to get an initial overview on existing relationships between causative factors and shallow landslide source areas; iv) choice of criteria for the selection and sizing of the mapping unit; v) implementation of 5 multivariate statistical susceptibility models based on Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques and focused on landslide source areas; vi) evaluation of the influence of sample size and type of sampling on results and performance of the models; vii) evaluation of the predictive capabilities of the models using ROC curve, AUC and contingency tables; viii) comparison of model results and obtained susceptibility maps; and ix) analysis of temporal variation of landslide susceptibility related to input parameter changes. Models based on Logistic Regression and Random Forests have demonstrated excellent predictive capabilities. Land use and wildfire variables were found to have a strong control on the occurrence of very rapid shallow landslides.

Application of genetic algorithm to land use optimization for non-point source pollution control based on CLUE-S and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

2018-05-01

The genetic algorithm (GA) was combined with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to obtain an optimized land use pattern for controlling non-point source (NPS) pollution. The performance of the combination was evaluated. The effect of the optimized land use pattern on the NPS pollution control was estimated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an assistant map was drawn to support the land use plan for the future. The Xiangxi River watershed was selected as the study area. Two scenarios were used to simulate the land use change. Under the historical trend scenario (Markov chain prediction), the forest area decreased by 2035.06 ha, and was mainly converted into paddy and dryland area. In contrast, under the optimized scenario (genetic algorithm (GA) prediction), up to 3370 ha of dryland area was converted into forest area. Spatially, the conversion of paddy and dryland into forest occurred mainly in the northwest and southeast of the watershed, where the slope land occupied a large proportion. The organic and inorganic phosphorus loads decreased by 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, in the optimized scenario compared to those in the historical trend scenario. GA showed a better performance in optimized land use prediction. A comparison of the land use patterns in 2010 under the real situation and in 2020 under the optimized situation showed that Shennongjia and Shuiyuesi should convert 1201.76 ha and 1115.33 ha of dryland into forest areas, respectively, which represented the greatest changes in all regions in the watershed. The results of this study indicated that GA and the CLUE-S model can be used to optimize the land use patterns in the future and that SWAT can be used to evaluate the effect of land use optimization on non-point source pollution control. These methods may provide support for land use plan of an area.

Strong Ground Motion Generation during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2011-12-01

Strong ground motions during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) were densely observed by the strong motion observation networks all over Japan. Seeing the acceleration and velocity waveforms observed at strong stations in northeast Japan along the source region, those ground motions are characterized by plural wave packets with duration of about twenty seconds. Particularly, two wave packets separated by about fifty seconds could be found on the records in the northern part of the damaged area, whereas only one significant wave packets could be recognized on the records in the southern part of the damaged area. The record section shows four isolated wave packets propagating from different locations to north and south, and it gives us a hint of the strong motion generation process on the source fault which is related to the heterogeneous rupture process in the scale of tens of kilometers. In order to solve it, we assume that each isolated wave packet is contributed by the corresponding strong motion generation area (SMGA). It is a source patch whose slip velocity is larger than off the area (Miyake et al., 2003). That is, the source model of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake consists of four SMGAs. The SMGA source model has succeeded in reproducing broadband strong ground motions for past subduction-zone events (e.g., Suzuki and Iwata, 2007). The target frequency range is set to be 0.1-10 Hz in this study as this range is significantly related to seismic damage generation to general man-made structures. First, we identified the rupture starting points of each SMGA by picking up the onset of individual packets. The source fault plane is set following the GCMT solution. The first two SMGAs were located approximately 70 km and 30 km west of the hypocenter. The third and forth SMGAs were located approximately 160 km and 230 km southwest of the hypocenter. Then, the model parameters (size, rise time, stress drop, rupture velocity, rupture propagation pattern) of these four SMGAs were determined by waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The first and second SMGAs are located close to each other, and they are partially overlapped though the difference in the rupture time between them is more than 40 s. Those two SMGA appear to be included in the source region of the past repeating Miyagi-Oki subduction-zone event in 1936. The third and fourth SMGAs appear to be located in the source region of the past Fukushima-Oki events in 1938. Each of Those regions has been expected to cause next major earthquakes in the long-term evaluation. The obtained source model explains the acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories in the target frequency range at most stations well. All of four SMGAs exist apparently outside of the large slip area along the trench east of the hypocenter, which was estimated by the seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversion analyses, and this large slip zone near the trench does not contribute to strong motion much. At this point, we can conclude that the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake has a possibility to be a complex event rupturing multiple preexisting asperities in terms of strong ground motion generation. It should be helpful to validate and improve the applicability of the strong motion prediction recipe for great subduction-zone earthquakes.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the April 1, 2006 Tai-Tung Earthquake Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Lin, C.

2010-12-01

The Tai-Tung earthquake (ML=6.2) occurred at the southeastern part of Taiwan on April 1, 2006. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at five stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method was used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green’s function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called “source spectral ratio fitting method” which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tai-Tung mainshock in 2006 was estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with synthetics using empirical Green’s function method. The size of the asperity is about 3.5 km length along the strike direction by 7.0 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the left-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the right-upper direction.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the December 16, 1993 Tapu Earthquake, Taiwan, Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.-C.; Lin, C.-Y.

2012-04-01

The Tapu earthquake (ML 5.7) occurred at the southwestern part of Taiwan on December 16, 1993. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at eight stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method is used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green's function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called "source spectral ratio fitting method" which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tapu mainshock in 1993 is estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with the synthetic ones using empirical Green's function method. The size of the asperity is about 2.1 km length along the strike direction by 1.5 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the right-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the left-upper direction.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the December 16, 1993 Tapu Earthquake, Taiwan, Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Lin, C.

2012-12-01

The Tapu earthquake (ML 5.7) occurred at the southwestern part of Taiwan on December 16, 1993. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at eight stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method is used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green's function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called "source spectral ratio fitting method" which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tapu mainshock in 1993 is estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with the synthetic ones using empirical Green's function method. The size of the asperity is about 2.1 km length along the strike direction by 1.5 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the right-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the left-upper direction.

Sources of lead and zinc associated with metal smelting activities in the Trail area, British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Fariborz; Sanei, Hamed; Labonté, Marcel; Duncan, William F

2002-06-01

The spatial distribution and deposition of lead and zinc emitted from the Trail smelter, British Columbia, Canada, was studied by strategically locating moss bags in the area surrounding the smelter and monitoring the deposition of elements every three months. A combined diffusion/distribution model was applied to estimate the relative contribution of stack-emitted material and material emitted from the secondary sources (e.g., wind-blown dust from ore/slag storage piles, uncovered transportation/trucking of ore, and historical dust). The results indicate that secondary sources are the major contributor of lead and zinc deposited within a short distance from the smelter. Gradually, the stack emissions become the main source of Pb and Zn at greater distances from the smelter. Typical material originating from each source was characterized by SEM/EDX, which indicated a marked difference in their morphology and chemical composition.

Design methodology and results evaluation of a heating functionality in modular lab-on-chip systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streit, Petra; Nestler, Joerg; Shaporin, Alexey; Graunitz, Jenny; Otto, Thomas

2018-06-01

Lab-on-a-chip (LoC) systems offer the opportunity of fast and customized biological analyses executed at the ‘point-of-need’ without expensive lab equipment. Some biological processes need a temperature treatment. Therefore, it is important to ensure a defined and stable temperature distribution in the biosensor area. An integrated heating functionality is realized with discrete resistive heating elements including temperature measurement. The focus of this contribution is a design methodology and evaluation technique of the temperature distribution in the biosensor area with regard to the thermal-electrical behaviour of the heat sources. Furthermore, a sophisticated control of the biosensor temperature is proposed. A finite element (FE) model with one and more integrated heat sources in a polymer-based LoC system is used to investigate the impact of the number and arrangement of heating elements on the temperature distribution around the heating elements and in the biosensor area. Based on this model, various LOC systems are designed and fabricated. Electrical characterization of the heat sources and independent temperature measurements with infrared technique are performed to verify the model parameters and prove the simulation approach. The FE model and the proposed methodology is the foundation for optimization and evaluation of new designs with regard to temperature requirements of the biosensor. Furthermore, a linear dependency of the heater temperature on the electric current is demonstrated in the targeted temperature range of 20 °C to 70 °C enabling the usage of the heating functionality for biological reactions requiring a steady-state temperature up to 70 °C. The correlation between heater and biosensor area temperature is derived for a direct control through the heating current.

Applying Satellite Data Sources in the Documentation and Landscape Modelling for Graeco-Roman Fortified Sites in the TŪR Abdin Area, Eastern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silver, K.; Silver, M.; Törmä, M.; Okkonen, J.; Okkonen, T.

2017-08-01

In 2015-2016 the Finnish-Swedish Archaeological Project in Mesopotamia (FSAPM) initiated a pilot study of an unexplored area in the Tūr Abdin region in Northern Mesopotamia (present-day Mardin Province in southeastern Turkey). FSAPM is reliant on satellite image data sources for prospecting, identifying, recording, and mapping largely unknown archaeological sites as well as studying their landscapes in the region. The purpose is to record and document sites in this endangered area for saving its cultural heritage. The sites in question consist of fortified architectural remains in an ancient border zone between the Graeco-Roman/Byzantine world and Parthia/Persia. The location of the archaeological sites in the terrain and the visible archaeological remains, as well as their dimensions and sizes were determined from the ortorectified satellite images, which also provided coordinates. In addition, field documentation was carried out in situ with photographs and notes. The applicability of various satellite data sources for the archaeological documentation of the project was evaluated. Satellite photographs from three 1968 CORONA missions, i.e. the declassified US government satellite photograph archives were acquired. Furthermore, satellite images included a recent GeoEye-1 Satellite Sensor Image from 2010 with a resolution of 0.5 m. Its applicability for prospecting archaeological sites, studying the terrain and producing landscape models in 3D was confirmed. The GeoEye-1 revealed the ruins of a fortified town and a fortress for their documentation and study. Landscape models for the area of these sites were constructed fusing GeoEye-1 with EU-DEM (European Digital Elevation Model data using SRTM and ASTER GDEM data) in order to understand their locations in the terrain.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K.; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A.; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-01

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography.

PubMed

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-30

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: a single or complex source?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, H.; Burg, P.-E.; Binet, R.; Lavigne, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Schindelé, F.

2012-12-01

The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (West Java), with run-up heights from 5 to more than 20 m. Such a large tsunami, with respect to the source magnitude, has been attributed to the slow character of the seismic rupture, defining the event as a so-called tsunami earthquake, but it has also been suggested that the largest run-up heights are actually the result of a second local landslide source. Here we test whether a single slow earthquake source can explain the tsunami run-up, using a combination of new detailed data in the region of the largest run-ups and comparison with modelled run-ups for a range of plausible earthquake source models. Using high-resolution satellite imagery (SPOT 5 and Quickbird), the coastal impact of the tsunami is refined in the surroundings of the high-security Permisan prison on Nusa Kambangan island, where 20 m run-up had been recorded directly after the event. These data confirm the extreme inundation lengths close to the prison, and extend the area of maximum impact further along the Nusa Kambangan island (about 20 km of shoreline), where inundation lengths reach several hundreds of metres, suggesting run-up as high as 10-15 m. Tsunami modelling has been conducted in detail for the high run-up Permisan area (Nusa Kambangan) and the PLTU power plant about 25 km eastwards, where run-up reached only 4-6 m and a video recording of the tsunami arrival is available. For the Permisan prison a high-resolution DEM was built from stereoscopic satellite imagery. The regular basin of the PLTU plant was designed using photographs and direct observations. For the earthquake's mechanism, both static (infinite) and finite (kinematic) ruptures are investigated using two published source models. The models account rather well for the sea level variation at PLTU, showing a better agreement in arrival times with the finite rupture, and predict the Permisan area to be one of the regions where tsunami waves would have focussed. However, the earthquake models that match the data at PTLU do not predict that the wave heights at Permisan are an overall maximum, and do not predict there more than 10 m of the 21 observed. Hence, our results confirm that an additional localized tsunami source off Nusa Kambangan island, such as a submarine landslide, may have increased the tsunami impact for the Permisan site. This reinforces the importance for hazard assessment of further mapping and understanding local potential for submarine sliding, as a tsunami source added to usual earthquake sources.

Fault source modeling of October 28, 2008 earthquake sequence in Baluchistan, Pakistan, on the basis of ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, M.; Furuya, M.

2014-12-01

The Quetta Syntaxis in the western Baluchistan, Pakistan, serves as a junction for different thrust faults. As this area also lays close to the left lateral strike slip Chaman fault, which is supposed to be marking the boundary between Indian and Eurasian plate, thus the resulting seismological behavior of this regime becomes much more complex. In the region of Quetta Syntaxis, below the fold and thrust belt of Suleiman and Kirthar ranges and on 28 October 2008, there stroke an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 (Mw) which was followed by a doublet on the very next day. In association with these major events, there have been four more shocks, one foreshock and three aftershocks that have moment magnitude greater than 5. On the basis of seismological, GPS and ENVISAT/ASAR InSAR data many researchers tried to explain the source of this sequence. The latest source modeling results, on the basis of ENVISAT/ASAR data has provided an insight about the complexity of tectonics in the study area. However, in comparison to ALOS/PALSAR InSAR data, ENVISAT/ASAR has lacked signals near the epicentral area because of the low coherence. Probably, it has led to different interpretations by different researchers even on the basis of same satellite data. By using ALOS/PALSAR data, we have suggested a four faults model, two left laterals and two right laterals, which also retains the most desirable features of previous models.

Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akinci, A.; Galadini, F.; Pantosti, D.; Petersen, M.; Malagnini, L.; Perkins, D.

2009-01-01

We produce probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments for the central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian passage time recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, ?? of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation.

Characterization of Spatial Impact of Particles Emitted from a Cement Material Production Facility on Outdoor Particle Deposition in the Surrounding Community.

PubMed

Yu, Chang Ho; Fan, Zhihua Tina; McCandlish, Elizabeth; Stern, Alan H; Lioy, Paul J

2011-10-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the contribution of a facility that processes steel production slag into raw material for cement production to local outdoor particle deposition in Camden, NJ. A dry deposition sampler that can house four 37-mm quartz fiber filters was developed and used for the collection of atmospheric particle deposits. Two rounds of particle collection (3-4 weeks each) were conducted in 8-11 locations 200-800 m downwind of the facility. Background samples were concurrently collected in a remote area located ∼2 km upwind from the facility. In addition, duplicate surface wipe samples were collected side-by-side from each of the 13 locations within the same sampling area during the first deposition sampling period. One composite source material sample was also collected from a pile stored in the facility. Both the bulk of the source material and the <38 μm fraction subsample were analyzed to obtain the elemental source profile. The particle deposition flux in the study area was higher (24-83 mg/m 2 ·day) than at the background sites (13-17 mg/m 2 ·day). The concentration of Ca, a major element in the cement source production material, was found to exponentially decrease with increasing downwind distance from the facility (P < 0.05). The ratio of Ca/Al, an indicator of Ca enrichment due to anthropogenic sources in a given sample, showed a similar trend. These observations suggest a significant contribution of the facility to the local particle deposition. The contribution of the facility to outdoor deposited particle mass was further estimated by three independent models using the measurements obtained from this study. The estimated contributions to particle deposition in the study area were 1.8-7.4% from the regression analysis of the Ca concentration in particle deposition samples against the distance from the facility, 0-11% from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-receptor model, and 7.6-13% from the EPA Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST3) dispersion model using the particle-size-adjusted permit-based emissions estimates. [Box: see text].

AIR QUALITY MODELING AT NEIGHBORHOOD SCALES TO IMPROVE HUMAN EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality modeling is an integral component of risk assessment and of subsequent development of effective and efficient management of air quality. Urban areas introduce of fresh sources of pollutants into regional background producing significant spatial variability of the co...

Sensitivity of two dispersion models (AERMOD and ISCST3) to input parameters for a rural ground-level area source.

PubMed

Faulkner, William B; Shaw, Bryan W; Grosch, Tom

2008-10-01

As of December 2006, the American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model with Plume Rise Model Enhancements (AERMOD-PRIME; hereafter AERMOD) replaced the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Version 3 (ISCST3) as the EPA-preferred regulatory model. The change from ISCST3 to AERMOD will affect Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) increment consumption as well as permit compliance in states where regulatory agencies limit property line concentrations using modeling analysis. Because of differences in model formulation and the treatment of terrain features, one cannot predict a priori whether ISCST3 or AERMOD will predict higher or lower pollutant concentrations downwind of a source. The objectives of this paper were to determine the sensitivity of AERMOD to various inputs and compare the highest downwind concentrations from a ground-level area source (GLAS) predicted by AERMOD to those predicted by ISCST3. Concentrations predicted using ISCST3 were sensitive to changes in wind speed, temperature, solar radiation (as it affects stability class), and mixing heights below 160 m. Surface roughness also affected downwind concentrations predicted by ISCST3. AERMOD was sensitive to changes in albedo, surface roughness, wind speed, temperature, and cloud cover. Bowen ratio did not affect the results from AERMOD. These results demonstrate AERMOD's sensitivity to small changes in wind speed and surface roughness. When AERMOD is used to determine property line concentrations, small changes in these variables may affect the distance within which concentration limits are exceeded by several hundred meters.

Coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ching, K.-E.; Rau, R.-J.; Zeng, Y.

2007-01-01

A coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation model. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic model tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip earthquakes and a compilation of finite source models of 18 earthquakes, the Chengkung earthquake generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung earthquake seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip earthquakes. The coseismic source model of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Source apportionment and health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in road dust from urban industrial areas of Ahvaz megacity, Iran.

PubMed

Najmeddin, Ali; Keshavarzi, Behnam; Moore, Farid; Lahijanzadeh, Ahmadreza

2017-10-28

This study investigates the occurrence and spatial distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) (Hg, Cd, Cu, Mo, Pb, Zn, Ni, Co, Cr, Al, Fe, Mn, V and Sb) in 67 road dust samples collected from urban industrial areas in Ahvaz megacity, southwest of Iran. Geochemical methods, multivariate statistics, geostatistics and health risk assessment model were adopted to study the spatial pollution pattern and to identify the priority pollutants, regions of concern and sources of the studied PTEs. Also, receptor positive matrix factorization model was employed to assess pollution sources. Compared to the local background, the median enrichment factor values revealed the following order: Sb > Pb > Hg > Zn > Cu > V > Fe > Mo > Cd > Mn > Cr ≈ Co ≈ Al ≈ Ni. Statistical results show that a significant difference exists between concentrations of Mo, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, Sb, V and Hg in different regions (univariate analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test p < 0.05), indicating the existence of highly contaminated spots. Integrated source identification coupled with positive matrix factorization model revealed that traffic-related emissions (43.5%) and steel industries (26.4%) were first two sources of PTEs in road dust, followed by natural sources (22.6%) and pipe and oil processing companies (7.5%). The arithmetic mean of pollution load index (PLI) values for high traffic sector (1.92) is greater than industrial (1.80) and residential areas (1.25). Also, the results show that ecological risk values for Hg and Pb in 41.8 and 9% of total dust samples are higher than 80, indicating their considerable or higher potential ecological risk. The health risk assessment model showed that ingestion of dust particles contributed more than 83% of the overall non-carcinogenic risk. For both residential and industrial scenarios, Hg and Pb had the highest risk values, whereas Mo has the lowest value.

Investigation of large-area multicoil inductively coupled plasma sources using three-dimensional fluid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brcka, Jozef

2016-07-01

A multi inductively coupled plasma (ICP) system can be used to maintain the plasma uniformity and increase the area processed by a high-density plasma. This article presents a source in two different configurations. The distributed planar multi ICP (DM-ICP) source comprises individual ICP sources that are not overlapped and produce plasma independently. Mutual coupling of the ICPs may affect the distribution of the produced plasma. The integrated multicoil ICP (IMC-ICP) source consists of four low-inductance ICP antennas that are superimposed in an azimuthal manner. The identical geometry of the ICP coils was assumed in this work. Both configurations have highly asymmetric components. A three-dimensional (3D) plasma model of the multicoil ICP configurations with asymmetric features is used to investigate the plasma characteristics in a large chamber and the operation of the sources in inert and reactive gases. The feasibility of the computational calculation, the speed, and the computational resources of the coupled multiphysics solver are investigated in the framework of a large realistic geometry and complex reaction processes. It was determined that additional variables can be used to control large-area plasmas. Both configurations can form a plasma, that azimuthally moves in a controlled manner, the so-called “sweeping mode” (SM) or “polyphase mode” (PPM), and thus they have the potential for large-area and high-density plasma applications. The operation in the azimuthal mode has the potential to adjust the plasma distribution, the reaction chemistry, and increase or modulate the production of the radicals. The intrinsic asymmetry of the individual coils and their combined operation were investigated within a source assembly primarily in argon and CO gases. Limited investigations were also performed on operation in CH4 gas. The plasma parameters and the resulting chemistry are affected by the geometrical relation between individual antennas. The aim of this work is to incorporate the technological, computational, dimensional scaling, and reaction chemistry aspects of the plasma under one computational framework. The 3D simulation is utilized to geometrically scale up the reactive plasma that is produced by multiple ICP sources.

Propeller sheet cavitation noise source modeling and inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Keunhwa; Lee, Jaehyuk; Kim, Dongho; Kim, Kyungseop; Seong, Woojae

2014-02-01

Propeller sheet cavitation is the main contributor to high level of noise and vibration in the after body of a ship. Full measurement of the cavitation-induced hull pressure over the entire surface of the affected area is desired but not practical. Therefore, using a few measurements on the outer hull above the propeller in a cavitation tunnel, empirical or semi-empirical techniques based on physical model have been used to predict the hull-induced pressure (or hull-induced force). In this paper, with the analytic source model for sheet cavitation, a multi-parameter inversion scheme to find the positions of noise sources and their strengths is suggested. The inversion is posed as a nonlinear optimization problem, which is solved by the optimization algorithm based on the adaptive simplex simulated annealing algorithm. Then, the resulting hull pressure can be modeled with boundary element method from the inverted cavitation noise sources. The suggested approach is applied to the hull pressure data measured in a cavitation tunnel of the Samsung Heavy Industry. Two monopole sources are adequate to model the propeller sheet cavitation noise. The inverted source information is reasonable with the cavitation dynamics of the propeller and the modeled hull pressure shows good agreement with cavitation tunnel experimental data.

A source model of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake by the EGF broad-band strong ground motion simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Kubo, H.

2014-12-01

The source model of the 2014 South Napa earthquake (Mw6.0) is estimated using broad band strong ground motion simulation by the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986, Irikura et al., 1997). We used the CESMD strong motion data. Aftershock ground motion records of Mw3.6 which occurred at 05:33 on 24th August (PDT), are used as an empirical Green's function. We refer to the finite source model by Dreger et al. (2014) for setting the geometry of the source fault plane and the rupture velocity. We assume a single rectangular strong motion generation area (e.g. Miyake et al., 2003; Asano and Iwata, 2012). The seismic moment ratio between the target and EGF events is fixed from the moment magnitudes. As only five station data are available for the aftershock records, the size of SMGA area, rupture starting point, and the rise time on the SMGA are determined by the trial and error.　Preliminary SMGA model is 6x6km2 and the rupture mainly propagates WNW and shallower directions. The SMGA size we obtained follows the empirical relationship of Mw and SMGA size for the inland crustal events (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). Waveform fittings are fairly well at the near source station NHC (Huichica creek) and 68150 (Napa Collage), where as the fitting is not good at the south-side stations, 68206 (Crockett - Carquinez Br. Geotech Array) and 68310 (Vallejo - Hwy 37/Napa River E Geo. Array). Particularly, we did not succeed in explaining the high PGA at the 68206 surface station. We will try to improve our SMGA model and will discuss the origin of the high PGA observed at that station.

Research on Geo-information Data Model for Preselected Areas of Geological Disposal of High-level Radioactive Waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, M.; Huang, S. T.; Wang, P.; Zhao, Y. A.; Wang, H. B.

2016-11-01

The geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste (hereinafter referred to "geological disposal") is a long-term, complex, and systematic scientific project, whose data and information resources in the research and development ((hereinafter referred to ”R&D”) process provide the significant support for R&D of geological disposal system, and lay a foundation for the long-term stability and safety assessment of repository site. However, the data related to the research and engineering in the sitting of the geological disposal repositories is more complicated (including multi-source, multi-dimension and changeable), the requirements for the data accuracy and comprehensive application has become much higher than before, which lead to the fact that the data model design of geo-information database for the disposal repository are facing more serious challenges. In the essay, data resources of the pre-selected areas of the repository has been comprehensive controlled and systematic analyzed. According to deeply understanding of the application requirements, the research work has made a solution for the key technical problems including reasonable classification system of multi-source data entity, complex logic relations and effective physical storage structures. The new solution has broken through data classification and conventional spatial data the organization model applied in the traditional industry, realized the data organization and integration with the unit of data entities and spatial relationship, which were independent, holonomic and with application significant features in HLW geological disposal. The reasonable, feasible and flexible data conceptual models, logical models and physical models have been established so as to ensure the effective integration and facilitate application development of multi-source data in pre-selected areas for geological disposal.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

PubMed Central

Schnyder, Jara S.D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-01-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms−1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events. PMID:27811961

Optimized Reduction of Unsteady Radial Forces in a Singlechannel Pump for Wastewater Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jin-Hyuk; Cho, Bo-Min; Choi, Young-Seok; Lee, Kyoung-Yong; Peck, Jong-Hyeon; Kim, Seon-Chang

2016-11-01

A single-channel pump for wastewater treatment was optimized to reduce unsteady radial force sources caused by impeller-volute interactions. The steady and unsteady Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the shear-stress transport turbulence model were discretized by finite volume approximations and solved on tetrahedral grids to analyze the flow in the single-channel pump. The sweep area of radial force during one revolution and the distance of the sweep-area center of mass from the origin were selected as the objective functions; the two design variables were related to the internal flow cross-sectional area of the volute. These objective functions were integrated into one objective function by applying the weighting factor for optimization. Latin hypercube sampling was employed to generate twelve design points within the design space. A response-surface approximation model was constructed as a surrogate model for the objectives, based on the objective function values at the generated design points. The optimized results showed considerable reduction in the unsteady radial force sources in the optimum design, relative to those of the reference design.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Cedar River alluvial aquifer flow system, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turco, Michael J.; Buchmiller, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Model results indicate that the primary sources of inflow to the modeled area are infiltration from the Cedar River (53.0 percent) and regional flow in the glacial and bedrock materials (34.1 percent). The primary sources of outflow from the modeled area are discharge to the Cedar River (45.4 percent) and pumpage (44.8 percent). Current steady-state pumping rates have increased the flow of water from the Cedar River to the alluvial aquifer by 43.8 cubic feet per second. Steady-state and transient hypothetical pumpage scenarios were used to show the relation between changes in pumpage and changes in infiltration of water from the Cedar River. Results indicate that more than 99 percent of the water discharging from municipal wells infiltrates from the Cedar River, that the time required for induced river recharge to equilibrate with municipal pumpage may be 150 days or more, and that ground-water availability in the Cedar Rapids area will not be significantly affected by doubling current pumpage as long as there is sufficient flow in the Cedar River to provide recharge.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnyder, Jara S. D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-01

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms-1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank.

PubMed

Schnyder, Jara S D; Eberli, Gregor P; Kirby, James T; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul

2016-11-04

Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms -1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

Evaluation of the impact of wood combustion on benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations; ambient measurements and dispersion modeling in Helsinki, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellén, Heidi; Kangas, Leena; Kousa, Anu; Vestenius, Mika; Teinilä, Kimmo; Karppinen, Ari; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Niemi, Jarkko V.

2017-03-01

Even though emission inventories indicate that wood combustion is a major source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), estimating its impacts on PAH concentration in ambient air remains challenging. In this study the effect of local small-scale wood combustion on the benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air in the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland is evaluated, using ambient air measurements, emission estimates, and dispersion modeling. The measurements were conducted at 12 different locations during the period from 2007 to 2015. The spatial distributions of annual average BaP concentrations originating from wood combustion were predicted for four of those years: 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2014. According to both the measurements and the dispersion modeling, the European Union target value for the annual average BaP concentrations (1 ng m-3) was clearly exceeded in certain suburban detached-house areas. However, in most of the other urban areas, including the center of Helsinki, the concentrations were below the target value. The measured BaP concentrations highly correlated with the measured levoglucosan concentrations in the suburban detached-house areas. In street canyons, the measured concentrations of BaP were at the same level as those in the urban background, clearly lower than those in suburban detached-house areas. The predicted annual average concentrations matched with the measured concentrations fairly well. Both the measurements and the modeling clearly indicated that wood combustion was the main local source of ambient air BaP in the Helsinki metropolitan area.

Research on the Placement of the Ecological Shelter Zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, N.; Ruan, X.

2011-12-01

The Three Gorges Dam is built on the middle reaches of Yangtze River (Changjiang) in south-central China, which is the world's third longest river. The Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR), including the entire inundated area and 19 administrative units (counties and cities) on both sides of the river, is regarded as an environmentally sensitive area. The total area of the TGRR is approximately 58000 km2. As the Three Gorges Dam fully operated, for the flood control, the water level should be kept in the range between 145 m and 175 m and the reservoir surface water area(over 1080 km2)at a water level of 175 m, with a length of 600 km. Many of cities, villages and farms have been submerged. Moreover, as a result of reservoir operation, the water-level alternation of the reservoir is opposite to the nature, which is low water level (145m) in summer and high water level (175m) in winter. The Hydro-Fluctuation Belt, with a height of 30m, will become a new pollution source due to the riparian being flooded and the submerged areas may still contain trace amounts of toxic or radioactive materials. The environmental impacts associated with large scale reservoir area often have significant negative impacts on the environment. It affects forest cover, species in the area, some endangered, water quality, increase the likelihood of earthquakes and mudslides in the area. To solve these problems, it is necessarily to construct the Ecological Shelter Zone (ESZ) along with the edge of the reservoir area. The function of the ESZ is similar to the riparian zone in reducing flood damage, improving water quality, decreasing the levels of the nonpoint source pollution load and soil erosion and rebuilding the migration routes of plant and wildlife. However, the research of the ESZ is mainly focused on rivers at field scale by now, lack of research method on reservoir at the watershed scale. As the special nature of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the construction of the ESZ in the TGRA is very complex. This paper focus on the development of a methodology to target the ESZ based on currently available tools (Remote Sensing, GIS and Hydrologic Model). According to the features of the TGRR, a spatially explicit and process-based method was introduced to help plan the placement of the ESZ in the TGRR for water quality benefits. The methods presented here were based on the integration of grid-based terrain analysis and nonpoint source pollution estimates. Firstly, the contribution of nonpoint source pollution from upslope farmland and urban to the TGRR was determined by grid-based terrain analysis. The upslope contributing area beyond the ESZ was defined as a "source". The SWAT model was used to analyze the characteristics of the pollution load. Secondly, the ESZ was defined as a "sink" and the reducing pollution loads in each grid cell of the ESZ was calculated by the REMM model. Finally, the key areas in the TGRA where the ESZ have the greatest potential to improve water quality were identified and the formula of the width of the ESZ was determined. However, the method in this article considers only the function of pollutants reduction in the ESZ, the next stage of the study will involve detailed modeling for the function of ecological corridor in the ESZ.

Spatial and temporal source apportionment of PM2.5 in Georgia, 2002 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Xinxin; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.; Holmes, Heather A.

2017-07-01

The Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor model was applied to estimate PM2.5 source impacts over Georgia from 2002 to 2013 using ambient PM2.5 species concentration data from 13 sites. Measurements of 19 PM2.5 species were used as inputs along with measurement-based source profiles to estimate the impacts of nine sources, including both primary components (from heavy duty diesel vehicle, light duty gasoline vehicle, biomass burning, coal combustion, and suspended dust sources) and secondary pollutants (ammonium sulfate, ammonium bisulfate, ammonium nitrate, and secondary organic carbon). From 2002 to 2013, PM2.5 total mass decreased from 13.8 μg/m3 to 9.2 μg/m3 averaged across all sites, a 33% decrease. Largest decreases were observed for secondary sulfate and nitrate species (58% and 44%, respectively). The amount of neutralization by ammonium did not change substantially over the time period in spite of substantial decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations. Total mobile source impacts decreased more at urban sites (39%) than rural sites (23%), whereas biomass burning decreased more at rural sites (34%) than urban sites (27%). The estimated central-site source impacts are found to spatially represent large areas for secondary pollutants, smaller areas for biomass burning and dust, and very local areas for mobile sources and coal combustion. Trends from the National Emissions Inventory were compared with the annual trends of mobile source impacts, coal combustion impacts, and sulfate concentrations, resulting in statistically significant positive trends with Pearson R2 of 0.80, 0.64, and 0.79, respectively. Results presented here suggest that PM2.5 reductions in Georgia and the Southeast have been achieved by control of both stationary and mobile sources, and that PM2.5 is comprised of increasing fractions of biomass burning emissions and suspended dust. The temporal trends of source impacts at each site adds information about source changes beyond the every-three-year emission inventories for evaluation of emission-based model results.

The use of open data from social media for the creation of 3D georeferenced modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themistocleous, Kyriacos

2016-08-01

There is a great deal of open source video on the internet that is posted by users on social media sites. With the release of low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles, many hobbyists are uploading videos from different locations, especially in remote areas. Using open source data that is available on the internet, this study utilized structure to motion (SfM) as a range imaging technique to estimate 3 dimensional landscape features from 2 dimensional image sequences subtracted from video, applied image distortion correction and geo-referencing. This type of documentation may be necessary for cultural heritage sites that are inaccessible or documentation is difficult, where we can access video from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). These 3D models can be viewed using Google Earth, create orthoimage, drawings and create digital terrain modeling for cultural heritage and archaeological purposes in remote or inaccessible areas.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SMOKE EMISSION DATA PROCESSOR AND SMOKE TOOL INPUT DATA PROCESSOR IN MODELS-3

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has implemented Version 1.3 of SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Object Kernel Emission) processor for preparation of area, mobile, point, and biogenic sources emission data within Version 4.1 of the Models-3 air quality modeling framework. The SMOK...

An Evaluation of carbon monoxide emissions models and mobile source dispersion models applicable to Alaskan cities : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

This report describes an investigation of state-of-the-art models for predicting the impact on air quality of additions or changes to a highway system identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as a "non-attainment area" for air quality s...

Comparison of AERMOD and WindTrax dispersion models in determining PM10 emission rates from beef cattle feedlots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reverse dispersion modeling has been used to determine air emission fluxes from ground-level area sources, including open-lot beef cattle feedlots. This research compared AERMOD, a Gaussian-based and currently the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) preferred regulatory dispersion model, and ...

a Semi-Empirical Topographic Correction Model for Multi-Source Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Sa; Tian, Xinpeng; Liu, Qiang; Wen, Jianguang; Ma, Yushuang; Song, Zhenwei

2018-04-01

Topographic correction of surface reflectance in rugged terrain areas is the prerequisite for the quantitative application of remote sensing in mountainous areas. Physics-based radiative transfer model can be applied to correct the topographic effect and accurately retrieve the reflectance of the slope surface from high quality satellite image such as Landsat8 OLI. However, as more and more images data available from various of sensors, some times we can not get the accurate sensor calibration parameters and atmosphere conditions which are needed in the physics-based topographic correction model. This paper proposed a semi-empirical atmosphere and topographic corrction model for muti-source satellite images without accurate calibration parameters.Based on this model we can get the topographic corrected surface reflectance from DN data, and we tested and verified this model with image data from Chinese satellite HJ and GF. The result shows that the correlation factor was reduced almost 85 % for near infrared bands and the classification overall accuracy of classification increased 14 % after correction for HJ. The reflectance difference of slope face the sun and face away the sun have reduced after correction.

Source partitioning of anthropogenic groundwater nitrogen in a mixed-use landscape, Tutuila, American Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuler, Christopher K.; El-Kadi, Aly I.; Dulai, Henrietta; Glenn, Craig R.; Fackrell, Joseph

2017-12-01

This study presents a modeling framework for quantifying human impacts and for partitioning the sources of contamination related to water quality in the mixed-use landscape of a small tropical volcanic island. On Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, production wells in the most populated region (the Tafuna-Leone Plain) produce most of the island's drinking water. However, much of this water has been deemed unsafe to drink since 2009. Tutuila has three predominant anthropogenic non-point-groundwater-pollution sources of concern: on-site disposal systems (OSDS), agricultural chemicals, and pig manure. These sources are broadly distributed throughout the landscape and are located near many drinking-water wells. Water quality analyses show a link between elevated levels of total dissolved groundwater nitrogen (TN) and areas with high non-point-source pollution density, suggesting that TN can be used as a tracer of groundwater contamination from these sources. The modeling framework used in this study integrates land-use information, hydrological data, and water quality analyses with nitrogen loading and transport models. The approach utilizes a numerical groundwater flow model, a nitrogen-loading model, and a multi-species contaminant transport model. Nitrogen from each source is modeled as an independent component in order to trace the impact from individual land-use activities. Model results are calibrated and validated with dissolved groundwater TN concentrations and inorganic δ15N values, respectively. Results indicate that OSDS contribute significantly more TN to Tutuila's aquifers than other sources, and thus should be prioritized in future water-quality management efforts.

A 3D modeling approach to complex faults with multi-source data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiang; Xu, Hua; Zou, Xukai; Lei, Hongzhuan

2015-04-01

Fault modeling is a very important step in making an accurate and reliable 3D geological model. Typical existing methods demand enough fault data to be able to construct complex fault models, however, it is well known that the available fault data are generally sparse and undersampled. In this paper, we propose a workflow of fault modeling, which can integrate multi-source data to construct fault models. For the faults that are not modeled with these data, especially small-scale or approximately parallel with the sections, we propose the fault deduction method to infer the hanging wall and footwall lines after displacement calculation. Moreover, using the fault cutting algorithm can supplement the available fault points on the location where faults cut each other. Increasing fault points in poor sample areas can not only efficiently construct fault models, but also reduce manual intervention. By using a fault-based interpolation and remeshing the horizons, an accurate 3D geological model can be constructed. The method can naturally simulate geological structures no matter whether the available geological data are sufficient or not. A concrete example of using the method in Tangshan, China, shows that the method can be applied to broad and complex geological areas.

Mineral dust transport in the Arctic modelled with FLEXPART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groot Zwaaftink, Christine; Grythe, Henrik; Stohl, Andreas

2016-04-01

Aeolian transport of mineral dust is suggested to play an important role in many processes. For instance, mineral aerosols affect the radiation balance of the atmosphere, and mineral deposits influence ice sheet mass balances and terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. While many efforts have been done to model global dust transport, relatively little attention has been given to mineral dust in the Arctic. Even though this region is more remote from the world's major dust sources and dust concentrations may be lower than elsewhere, effects of mineral dust on for instance the radiation balance can be highly relevant. Furthermore, there are substantial local sources of dust in or close to the Arctic (e.g., in Iceland), whose impact on Arctic dust concentrations has not been studied in detail. We therefore aim to estimate contributions of different source regions to mineral dust in the Arctic. We have developed a dust mobilization routine in combination with the Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART to make such estimates. The lack of details on soil properties in many areas requires a simple routine for global simulations. However, we have paid special attention to the dust sources on Iceland. The mobilization routine does account for topography, snow cover and soil moisture effects, in addition to meteorological parameters. FLEXPART, driven with operational meteorological data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, was used to do a three-year global dust simulation for the years 2010 to 2012. We assess the model performance in terms of surface concentration and deposition at several locations spread over the globe. We will discuss how deposition and dust load patterns in the Arctic change throughout seasons based on the source of the dust. Important source regions for mineral dust found in the Arctic are not only the major desert areas, such as the Sahara, but also local bare-soil regions. From our model results, it appears that total dust load in the Arctic atmosphere is dominated by dust from Africa and Asia. However, in the lower atmosphere, local sources also contribute strongly to dust concentrations. Especially from Iceland, significant amounts of dust are mobilized. These local sources with relatively shallow transport of dust also affect the spatial distribution of dust deposition. For instance, model estimates show that in autumn and winter most of the deposited dust in Greenland originates from sources north of 60 degrees latitude.

Subsidence at Kiska volcano, Western Aleutians, detected by satellite radar interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Z.; Masterlark, Timothy; Power, J.; Dzurisin, D.; Wicks, Charles

2002-01-01

Sequential interferometric synthetic aperture radar images of Kiska, the westernmost historically active volcano in the Aleutian arc, show that a circular area about 3 km in diameter centered near the summit subsided by as much as 10 cm from 1995 to 2001, mostly during 1999 and 2000. An elastic Mogi-type deformation model suggests that the source is within 1 km of the surface. Based on the shallow source depth, the copious amounts of steam during recent eruptions, and recent field reports of vigorous steaming and persistent ground shaking near the summit area, we attribute the subsidence to decreased pore-fluid pressure within a shallow hydrothermal system beneath the summit area.

10C survey of radio sources at 15.7 GHz - II. First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AMI Consortium; Davies, Mathhew L.; Franzen, Thomas M. O.; Waldram, Elizabeth M.; Grainge, Keith J. B.; Hobson, Michael P.; Hurley-Walker, Natasha; Lasenby, Anthony; Olamaie, Malak; Pooley, Guy G.; Riley, Julia M.; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, Carmen; Saunders, Richard D. E.; Scaife, Anna M. M.; Schammel, Michel P.; Scott, Paul F.; Shimwell, Timothy W.; Titterington, David J.; Zwart, Jonathan T. L.

2011-08-01

In a previous paper (Paper I), the observational, mapping and source-extraction techniques used for the Tenth Cambridge (10C) Survey of Radio Sources were described. Here, the first results from the survey, carried out using the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager Large Array (LA) at an observing frequency of 15.7 GHz, are presented. The survey fields cover an area of ≈27 deg2 to a flux-density completeness of 1 mJy. Results for some deeper areas, covering ≈12 deg2, wholly contained within the total areas and complete to 0.5 mJy, are also presented. The completeness for both areas is estimated to be at least 93 per cent. The 10C survey is the deepest radio survey of any significant extent (≳0.2 deg2) above 1.4 GHz. The 10C source catalogue contains 1897 entries and is available online. The source catalogue has been combined with that of the Ninth Cambridge Survey to calculate the 15.7-GHz source counts. A broken power law is found to provide a good parametrization of the differential count between 0.5 mJy and 1 Jy. The measured source count has been compared with that predicted by de Zotti et al. - the model is found to display good agreement with the data at the highest flux densities. However, over the entire flux-density range of the measured count (0.5 mJy to 1 Jy), the model is found to underpredict the integrated count by ≈30 per cent. Entries from the source catalogue have been matched with those contained in the catalogues of the NRAO VLA Sky Survey and the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-cm survey (both of which have observing frequencies of 1.4 GHz). This matching provides evidence for a shift in the typical 1.4-GHz spectral index to 15.7-GHz spectral index of the 15.7-GHz-selected source population with decreasing flux density towards sub-mJy levels - the spectra tend to become less steep. Automated methods for detecting extended sources, developed in Paper I, have been applied to the data; ≈5 per cent of the sources are found to be extended relative to the LA-synthesized beam of ≈30 arcsec. Investigations using higher resolution data showed that most of the genuinely extended sources at 15.7 GHz are classical doubles, although some nearby galaxies and twin-jet sources were also identified.

Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

2016-08-01

Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.

Mapping air quality zones for coastal urban centers.

PubMed

Freeman, Brian; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Thé, Jesse; Munshed, Mohammad; Faisal, Shah; Abdullah, Meshal; Al Aseed, Athari

2017-05-01

This study presents a new method that incorporates modern air dispersion models allowing local terrain and land-sea breeze effects to be considered along with political and natural boundaries for more accurate mapping of air quality zones (AQZs) for coastal urban centers. This method uses local coastal wind patterns and key urban air pollution sources in each zone to more accurately calculate air pollutant concentration statistics. The new approach distributes virtual air pollution sources within each small grid cell of an area of interest and analyzes a puff dispersion model for a full year's worth of 1-hr prognostic weather data. The difference of wind patterns in coastal and inland areas creates significantly different skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics for the annually averaged pollutant concentrations at ground level receptor points for each grid cell. Plotting the S-K data highlights grouping of sources predominantly impacted by coastal winds versus inland winds. The application of the new method is demonstrated through a case study for the nation of Kuwait by developing new AQZs to support local air management programs. The zone boundaries established by the S-K method were validated by comparing MM5 and WRF prognostic meteorological weather data used in the air dispersion modeling, a support vector machine classifier was trained to compare results with the graphical classification method, and final zones were compared with data collected from Earth observation satellites to confirm locations of high-exposure-risk areas. The resulting AQZs are more accurate and support efficient management strategies for air quality compliance targets effected by local coastal microclimates. A novel method to determine air quality zones in coastal urban areas is introduced using skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics calculated from grid concentrations results of air dispersion models. The method identifies land-sea breeze effects that can be used to manage local air quality in areas of similar microclimates.

Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling

2017-11-01

Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, G.R.; Kapo, K.E.

2004-01-01

Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features. The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations. Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km2 (200 people/mile 2). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km2 (50 people/mile2), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate. Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative to transportation network and population distribution data. The models can be used on a regional scale to quickly map the relative site suitability for a RAP or RPCC aggregate recycling operation in a particular area based on transportation network and population parameters. The results can be used to identify general areas to be further evaluated on a site-specific basis using more detailed marketplace information. As transportation or population features change due to planning or actual development, the models can be easily revised to reflect these changes. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the uncertainty in attributing sediment contributions in fingerprinting studies due to uncertainty in determining element concentrations in source areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Jose Alfonso; Owens, Phillip N.; Koiter, Alex J.; Lobb, David

2016-04-01

One of the major sources of uncertainty in attributing sediment sources in fingerprinting studies is the uncertainty in determining the concentrations of the elements used in the mixing model due to the variability of the concentrations of these elements in the source materials (e.g., Kraushaar et al., 2015). The uncertainty in determining the "true" concentration of a given element in each one of the source areas depends on several factors, among them the spatial variability of that element, the sampling procedure and sampling density. Researchers have limited control over these factors, and usually sampling density tends to be sparse, limited by time and the resources available. Monte Carlo analysis has been used regularly in fingerprinting studies to explore the probable solutions within the measured variability of the elements in the source areas, providing an appraisal of the probability of the different solutions (e.g., Collins et al., 2012). This problem can be considered analogous to the propagation of uncertainty in hydrologic models due to uncertainty in the determination of the values of the model parameters, and there are many examples of Monte Carlo analysis of this uncertainty (e.g., Freeze, 1980; Gómez et al., 2001). Some of these model analyses rely on the simulation of "virtual" situations that were calibrated from parameter values found in the literature, with the purpose of providing insight about the response of the model to different configurations of input parameters. This approach - evaluating the answer for a "virtual" problem whose solution could be known in advance - might be useful in evaluating the propagation of uncertainty in mixing models in sediment fingerprinting studies. In this communication, we present the preliminary results of an on-going study evaluating the effect of variability of element concentrations in source materials, sampling density, and the number of elements included in the mixing models. For this study a virtual catchment was constructed, composed by three sub-catchments each of 500 x 500 m size. We assumed that there was no selectivity in sediment detachment or transport. A numerical excercise was performed considering these variables: 1) variability of element concentration: three levels with CVs of 20 %, 50 % and 80 %; 2) sampling density: 10, 25 and 50 "samples" per sub-catchment and element; and 3) number of elements included in the mixing model: two (determined), and five (overdetermined). This resulted in a total of 18 (3 x 3 x 2) possible combinations. The five fingerprinting elements considered in the study were: C, N, 40K, Al and Pavail, and their average values, taken from the literature, were: sub-catchment 1: 4.0 %, 0.35 %, 0.50 ppm, 5.0 ppm, 1.42 ppm, respectively; sub-catchment 2: 2.0 %, 0.18 %, 0.20 ppm, 10.0 ppm, 0.20 ppm, respectively; and sub-catchment 3: 1.0 %, 0.06 %, 1.0 ppm, 16.0 ppm, 7.8 ppm, respectively. For each sub-catchment, three maps of the spatial distribution of each element was generated using the random generator of Mejia and Rodriguez-Iturbe (1974) as described in Freeze (1980), using the average value and the three different CVs defined above. Each map for each source area and property was generated for a 100 x 100 square grid, each grid cell being 5 m x 5 m. Maps were randomly generated for each property and source area. In doing so, we did not consider the possibility of cross correlation among properties. Spatial autocorrelation was assumed to be weak. The reason for generating the maps was to create a "virtual" situation where all the element concentration values at each point are known. Simultaneously, we arbitrarily determined the percentage of sediment coming from sub-catchments. These values were 30 %, 10 % and 60 %, for sub-catchments 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Using these values, we determined the element concentrations in the sediment. The exercise consisted of creating different sampling strategies in a virtual environment to determine an average value for each of the different maps of element concentration and sub-catchment, under different sampling densities: 200 different average values for the "high" sampling density (average of 50 samples); 400 different average values for the "medium" sampling density (average of 25 samples); and 1,000 different average values for the "low" sampling density (average of 10 samples). All these combinations of possible values of element concentrations in the source areas were solved for the concentration in the sediment already determined for the "true" solution using limSolve (Soetaert et al., 2014) in R language. The sediment source solutions found for the different situations and values were analyzed in order to: 1) evaluate the uncertainty in the sediment source attribution; and 2) explore strategies to detect the most probable solutions that might lead to improved methods for constructing the most robust mixing models. Preliminary results on these will be presented and discussed in this communication. Key words: sediment, fingerprinting, uncertainty, variability, mixing model. References Collins, A.L., Zhang, Y., McChesney, D., Walling, D.E., Haley, S.M., Smith, P. 2012. Sediment source tracing in a lowland agricultural catchment in southern England using a modified procedure combining statistical analysis and numerical modelling. Science of the Total Environment 414: 301-317. Freeze, R.A. 1980. A stochastic-conceptual analysis of rainfall-runoff processes on a hillslope. Water Resources Research 16: 391-408.

Runoff characteristics and non-point source pollution analysis in the Taihu Lake Basin: a case study of the town of Xueyan, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Q D; Sun, J H; Hua, G F; Wang, J H; Wang, H

2015-10-01

Non-point source pollution is a significant environmental issue in small watersheds in China. To study the effects of rainfall on pollutants transported by runoff, rainfall was monitored in Xueyan town in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) for over 12 consecutive months. The concentrations of different forms of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and chemical oxygen demand, were monitored in runoff and river water across different land use types. The results indicated that pollutant loads were highly variable. Most N losses due to runoff were found around industrial areas (printing factories), while residential areas exhibited the lowest nitrogen losses through runoff. Nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) were the dominant forms of soluble N around printing factories and hotels, respectively. The levels of N in river water were stable prior to the generation of runoff from a rainfall event, after which they were positively correlated to rainfall intensity. In addition, three sites with different areas were selected for a case study to analyze trends in pollutant levels during two rainfall events, using the AnnAGNPS model. The modeled results generally agreed with the observed data, which suggests that AnnAGNPS can be used successfully for modeling runoff nutrient loading in this region. The conclusions of this study provide important information on controlling non-point source pollution in TLB.

Milan Army Ammunition Plant remedial investigation report: Volume 1. Final report 89-91

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okusu, N.; Hall, H.; Orndorff, A.

1991-12-09

A Remedial Investigation at the Milan Army Ammunition Plant, TN, was conducted for the US Army Toxic and Hazardous Materials Agency, under the terms of an Interagency Agreement with the State of Tennessee and the US Environmental Protection Agency. The study focused on the CERCLA site and selected RCRA regulated units identified by previous studies as potential sources of contamination. A broad range of chemicals including metals, explosives, and other organic compounds were found in source areas and in groundwater. The results of a risk assessment indicate that unacceptable levels of human health risks potentially exist. Conceptual models of sitemore » and unit characteristics were formulated to explain major findings, and areas not contributing to the problem were identified. For many source areas, major unknowns exist regarding hydrology, extent of contamination, and current and future impacts to groundwater quality.« less

Signal-to-noise ratio for the wide field-planetary camera of the Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zissa, D. E.

1984-01-01

Signal-to-noise ratios for the Wide Field Camera and Planetary Camera of the Space Telescope were calculated as a function of integration time. Models of the optical systems and CCD detector arrays were used with a 27th visual magnitude point source and a 25th visual magnitude per arc-sq. second extended source. A 23rd visual magnitude per arc-sq. second background was assumed. The models predicted signal-to-noise ratios of 10 within 4 hours for the point source centered on a signal pixel. Signal-to-noise ratios approaching 10 are estimated for approximately 0.25 x 0.25 arc-second areas within the extended source after 10 hours integration.

Spatial and temporal variability of carbonaceous aerosols: Assessing the impact of biomass burning in the urban environment.

PubMed

Titos, G; Del Águila, A; Cazorla, A; Lyamani, H; Casquero-Vera, J A; Colombi, C; Cuccia, E; Gianelle, V; Močnik, G; Alastuey, A; Olmo, F J; Alados-Arboledas, L

2017-02-01

Biomass burning (BB) is a significant source of atmospheric particles in many parts of the world. Whereas many studies have demonstrated the importance of BB emissions in central and northern Europe, especially in rural areas, its impact in urban air quality of southern European countries has been sparsely investigated. In this study, highly time resolved multi-wavelength absorption coefficients together with levoglucosan (BB tracer) mass concentrations were combined to apportion carbonaceous aerosol sources. The Aethalometer model takes advantage of the different spectral behavior of BB and fossil fuel (FF) combustion aerosols. The model was found to be more sensitive to the assumed value of the aerosol Ångström exponent (AAE) for FF (AAE ff ) than to the AAE for BB (AAE bb ). As result of various sensitivity tests the model was optimized with AAE ff =1.1 and AAE bb =2. The Aethalometer model and levoglucosan tracer estimates were in good agreement. The Aethalometer model was further applied to data from three sites in Granada urban area to evaluate the spatial variation of CM ff and CM bb (carbonaceous matter from FF or BB origin, respectively) concentrations within the city. The results showed that CM bb was lower in the city centre while it has an unexpected profound impact on the CM levels measured in the suburbs (about 40%). Analysis of BB tracers with respect to wind speed suggested that BB was dominated by sources outside the city, to the west in a rural area. Distinguishing whether it corresponds to agricultural waste burning or with biomass burning for domestic heating was not possible. This study also shows that although traffic restrictions measures contribute to reduce carbonaceous concentrations, the extent of the reduction is very local. Other sources such as BB, which can contribute to CM as much as traffic emissions, should be targeted to reduce air pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation on Change Law of Runoff, Sediment and Non-point Source Nitrogen and Phosphorus Discharge under Different Land uses Based on SWAT Model: A Case Study of Er hai Lake Small Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Xiao Xia; Lai Cui, Yuan; Chen, Man Yu; Hu, Bo; Xu, Wen Sheng

2018-05-01

The Er yuan watershed of Er hai district is chosen as the research area, the law of runoff and sediment and non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus discharges under different land uses during 2001 to 2014 are simulated based on SWAT model. Results of simulation indicate that the order of total runoff yield of different land use type from high to low is grassland, paddy fields, dry land. Specifically, the order of surface runoff yield from high to low is paddy fields, dry land, grassland, the order of lateral runoff yield from high to low is paddy fields, dry land, grassland, the order of groundwater runoff yield from high to low is grassland, paddy fields, dry land. The orders of sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus yield per unit area of different land use type are the same, grassland> paddy fields> dry land. It can be seen, nitrogen and phosphorus discharges from paddy fields and dry land are the main sources of agricultural non-point pollution of the irrigated area. Therefore, reasonable field management measures which can decrease the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus of paddy fields and dry land are the key to agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control.

[Classification of Priority Area for Soil Environmental Protection Around Water Sources: Method Proposed and Case Demonstration].

PubMed

Li, Lei; Wang, Tie-yu; Wang, Xiaojun; Xiao, Rong-bo; Li, Qi-feng; Peng, Chi; Han, Cun-liang

2016-04-15

Based on comprehensive consideration of soil environmental quality, pollution status of river, environmental vulnerability and the stress of pollution sources, a technical method was established for classification of priority area of soil environmental protection around the river-style water sources. Shunde channel as an important drinking water sources of Foshan City, Guangdong province, was studied as a case, of which the classification evaluation system was set up. In detail, several evaluation factors were selected according to the local conditions of nature, society and economy, including the pollution degree of heavy metals in soil and sediment, soil characteristics, groundwater sensitivity, vegetation coverage, the type and location of pollution sources. Data information was mainly obtained by means of field survey, sampling analysis, and remote sensing interpretation. Afterwards, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted to decide the weight of each factor. The basic spatial data layers were set up respectively and overlaid based on the weighted summation assessment model in Geographical Information System (GIS), resulting in a classification map of soil environmental protection level in priority area of Shunde channel. Accordingly, the area was classified to three levels named as polluted zone, risky zone and safe zone, which respectively accounted for 6.37%, 60.90% and 32.73% of the whole study area. Polluted zone and risky zone were mainly distributed in Lecong, Longjiang and Leliu towns, with pollutants mainly resulted from the long-term development of aquaculture and the industries containing furniture, plastic constructional materials and textile and clothing. In accordance with the main pollution sources of soil, targeted and differentiated strategies were put forward. The newly established evaluation method could be referenced for the protection and sustainable utilization of soil environment around the water sources.

Inter-comparison of source apportionment of PM10 using PMF and CMB in three sites nearby an industrial area in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesari, Daniela; Donateo, Antonio; Conte, Marianna; Contini, Daniele

2016-12-01

Receptor models (RMs), based on chemical composition of particulate matter (PM), such as Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), represent useful tools for determining the impact of PM sources to air quality. This information is useful, especially in areas influenced by anthropogenic activities, to plan mitigation strategies for environmental management. Recent inter-comparison of source apportionment (SA) results showed that one of the difficulties in the comparison of estimated source contributions is the compatibility of the sources, i.e. the chemical profiles of factor/sources used in receptor models. This suggests that SA based on integration of several RMs could give more stable and reliable solutions with respect to a single model. The aim of this work was to perform inter-comparison of PMF (using PMF3.0 and PMF5.0 codes) and CMB outputs, focusing on both source chemical profiles and estimates of source contributions. The dataset included 347 daily PM10 samples collected in three sites in central Italy located near industrial emissions. Samples were chemically analysed for the concentrations of 21 chemical species (NH4+, Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, K+, Mg2 +, SO42 -, NO3-, Cl-, Si, Al, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, EC, and OC) used as input of RMs. The approach identified 9 factor/sources: marine, traffic, resuspended dust, biomass burning, secondary sulphate, secondary nitrate, crustal, coal combustion power plant and harbour-industrial. Results showed that the application of constraints in PMF5.0 improved interpretability of profiles and comparability of estimated source contributions with stoichiometric calculations. The inter-comparison of PMF and CMB gave significant differences for secondary nitrate, biomass burning, and harbour-industrial sources, due to non-compatibility of these source profiles that have local specificities. When these site-dependent specificities were taken into account, optimising the input source profiles of CMB, a significant improvement in the comparison of the estimated source contributions with PMF was obtained.

Database integration in a multimedia-modeling environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorow, Kevin E.

2002-09-02

Integration of data from disparate remote sources has direct applicability to modeling, which can support Brownfield assessments. To accomplish this task, a data integration framework needs to be established. A key element in this framework is the metadata that creates the relationship between the pieces of information that are important in the multimedia modeling environment and the information that is stored in the remote data source. The design philosophy is to allow modelers and database owners to collaborate by defining this metadata in such a way that allows interaction between their components. The main parts of this framework include toolsmore » to facilitate metadata definition, database extraction plan creation, automated extraction plan execution / data retrieval, and a central clearing house for metadata and modeling / database resources. Cross-platform compatibility (using Java) and standard communications protocols (http / https) allow these parts to run in a wide variety of computing environments (Local Area Networks, Internet, etc.), and, therefore, this framework provides many benefits. Because of the specific data relationships described in the metadata, the amount of data that have to be transferred is kept to a minimum (only the data that fulfill a specific request are provided as opposed to transferring the complete contents of a data source). This allows for real-time data extraction from the actual source. Also, the framework sets up collaborative responsibilities such that the different types of participants have control over the areas in which they have domain knowledge-the modelers are responsible for defining the data relevant to their models, while the database owners are responsible for mapping the contents of the database using the metadata definitions. Finally, the data extraction mechanism allows for the ability to control access to the data and what data are made available.« less

Taking potential probability function maps to the local scale and matching them with land use maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Saryu; Sinha, Vinayak; Sinha, Baerbel

2013-04-01

Source-Receptor models have been developed using different methods. Residence-time weighted concentration back trajectory analysis and Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) are the two most popular techniques for identification of potential sources of a substance in a defined geographical area. Both techniques use back trajectories calculated using global models and assign values of probability/concentration to various locations in an area. These values represent the probability of threshold exceedances / the average concentration measured at the receptor in air masses with a certain residence time over a source area. Both techniques, however, have only been applied to regional and long-range transport phenomena due to inherent limitation with respect to both spatial accuracy and temporal resolution of the of back trajectory calculations. Employing the above mentioned concepts of residence time weighted concentration back-trajectory analysis and PSCF, we developed a source-receptor model capable of identifying local and regional sources of air pollutants like Particulate Matter (PM), NOx, SO2 and VOCs. We use 1 to 30 minute averages of concentration values and wind direction and speed from a single receptor site or from multiple receptor sites to trace the air mass back in time. The model code assumes all the atmospheric transport to be Lagrangian and linearly extrapolates air masses reaching the receptor location, backwards in time for a fixed number of steps. We restrict the model run to the lifetime of the chemical species under consideration. For long lived species the model run is limited to < 4 hrs as spatial uncertainty increases the longer an air mass is linearly extrapolated back in time. The final model output is a map, which can be compared with the local land use map to pinpoint sources of different chemical substances and estimate their source strength. Our model has flexible space- time grid extrapolation steps of 1-5 minutes and 1-5 km grid resolution. By making use of high temporal resolution data, our model can produce maps for different times of the day, thus accounting for temporal changes and activity profiles of different sources. The main advantage of our approach compared to geostationary numerical methods that interpolate measured concentration values of multiple measurement sites to produce maps (gridding) is that the maps produced are more accurate in terms of spatial identification of sources. The model was applied to isoprene and meteorological data recorded during clean post-monsoon season (1 October- 7 October, 2012) between 11 am and 4 pm at a receptor site in the North-West Indo-Gangetic Plains (IISER Mohali, 30.665° N, 76.729°E, 300 m asl), near the foothills of the Himalayan range. Considering the lifetime of isoprene, the model was run only 2 hours backward in time. The map shows highest residence time weighted concentration of isoprene (up to 3.5 ppbv) over agricultural land with high number of trees (>180 trees/gridsquare); moderate concentrations for agricultural lands with low tree density (1.5-2.5 ppbv for 250 μg/m3 for traffic hotspots in Chandigarh City are observed. Based on the validation against the land use maps, the model appears to do an excellent job in source apportionment and identifying emission hotspots. Acknowledgement: We thank the IISER Mohali Atmospheric Chemistry Facility for data and the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD), India and IISER Mohali for funding the facility. Chinmoy Sarkar is acknowledged for technical support, Saryu Garg thanks the Max Planck-DST India Partner Group on Tropospheric OH reactivity and VOCs for funding the research.

Characterizing and locating air pollution sources in a complex industrial district using optical remote sensing technology and multivariate statistical modeling.

PubMed

Chang, Pao-Erh Paul; Yang, Jen-Chih Rena; Den, Walter; Wu, Chang-Fu

2014-09-01

Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are most frequent environmental nuisance complaints in urban areas, especially where industrial districts are nearby. Unfortunately, identifying the responsible emission sources of VOCs is essentially a difficult task. In this study, we proposed a dynamic approach to gradually confine the location of potential VOC emission sources in an industrial complex, by combining multi-path open-path Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (OP-FTIR) measurement and the statistical method of principal component analysis (PCA). Close-cell FTIR was further used to verify the VOC emission source by measuring emitted VOCs from selected exhaust stacks at factories in the confined areas. Multiple open-path monitoring lines were deployed during a 3-month monitoring campaign in a complex industrial district. The emission patterns were identified and locations of emissions were confined by the wind data collected simultaneously. N,N-Dimethyl formamide (DMF), 2-butanone, toluene, and ethyl acetate with mean concentrations of 80.0 ± 1.8, 34.5 ± 0.8, 103.7 ± 2.8, and 26.6 ± 0.7 ppbv, respectively, were identified as the major VOC mixture at all times of the day around the receptor site. As the toxic air pollutant, the concentrations of DMF in air samples were found exceeding the ambient standard despite the path-average effect of OP-FTIR upon concentration levels. The PCA data identified three major emission sources, including PU coating, chemical packaging, and lithographic printing industries. Applying instrumental measurement and statistical modeling, this study has established a systematic approach for locating emission sources. Statistical modeling (PCA) plays an important role in reducing dimensionality of a large measured dataset and identifying underlying emission sources. Instrumental measurement, however, helps verify the outcomes of the statistical modeling. The field study has demonstrated the feasibility of using multi-path OP-FTIR measurement. The wind data incorporating with the statistical modeling (PCA) may successfully identify the major emission source in a complex industrial district.

Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, P.; Frank, A.

2003-04-01

A method for the calculation of source-receptor (s-r) relationships (sensitivity of a trace substance concentration at some place and time to emission at some place and time) with Lagrangian particle models has been derived and presented previously (Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XIV, Proc. of ITM Boulder 2000). Now, the generalisation to any linear s-r relationship, including dry and wet deposition, decay etc., is presented. It was implemented in the model FLEXPART and tested extensively in idealised set-ups. These tests turned out to be very useful for finding minor model bugs and inaccuracies, and can be recommended generally for model testing. Recently, a convection scheme has been integrated in FLEXPART which was also tested. Both source and receptor can be specified in mass mixing ratio or mass units. Properly taking care of this is quite relevant for sources and receptors at different levels in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we present a test with the transport of aerosol-bound Caesium-137 from the areas contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster to Stockholm during one month.

A Modeling System to Examine Near-Road and Near-Source Air Toxics for Community-Scale Cumulative Assessments.

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative assessments consider a range of potential stressors that might impact the health of a receptor, such as a local neighborhood or wetland area. When receptors are located near pollution sources such as highways or ports (within 500-1,000 m), then they could be at risk of...

Estimating and validating surface energy fluxes at field scale over a heterogeneous land surfaces based on two-source energy balance model (TSEB)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate estimation of surface energy fluxes at field scale over large areas has the potential to improve agricultural water management in arid and semiarid watersheds. Remote sensing may be the only viable approach for mapping fluxes over heterogeneous landscapes. The Two-Source Energy Balance mode...

High Resolution Tsunami Modelling for the Evaluation of Potential Risk Areas in Setubal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, João.; Silva, Adélio; Leitão, Paulo

2010-05-01

Modeling has a relevant role in today's natural hazards mitigation planning as it can cover a wide range of natural phenomena. This is also the case for an event like a tsunami. In order to support the urban planning or prepare emergency response plans it is of major importance to be able to properly evaluate the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipments. The use of high resolution models can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas which complemented with other data such as the type of buildings, location of prioritary equipments, etc., may effectively contribute to better identify the most vulnerable zones, define rescue and escape routes and adequate the emergency plans to the constraints associated to these type of events. In the framework of FP6 SCHEMA project these concepts are being applied to different test sites and a detailed evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings and people to a tsunami event is being evaluated. One of the sites selected it is located in Portugal, in the Atlantic coast, and it refers to Setúbal area which is located about 40 km south of Lisbon. Within this site two specific locations are being evaluated: one is the city of Setúbal (in the Sado estuary right margin) and the other is the Tróia peninsula (in the Sado estuary left margin). Setúbal city is a medium size town with about 114,000 inhabitants while Tróia is a touristic resort located in a shallow area with a high seasonal occupation and has the river Sado as one of the main sources of income to the city. Setúbal was one of the Portuguese villages that was seriously damaged by the of 1755 earthquake event. The 1755 earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, the catholic holiday of All Saints, around 09:30 AM. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires which caused a huge destruction of Lisboa and Setúbal In the framework of the present study, a detailed evaluation of the site vulnerability to a tsunami event based on the consideration of the wave heights, buildings type and access routes characteristics was performed. The wave height and most probable inundation areas was made on the basis of the simulation of three earthquake potential sources with different level of impact (extreme, moderate and weak) in the Setúbal area. In the case of the extreme event the selected source for simulation corresponds to an interpretation of the origins of the 1755 earthquake proposed by Baptista et al (2003).In this study it is suggest that the 1755 tsunami event had two sources: one located in the Marques de Pombal thrust (MPTF) and a second one located in the Guadalquivir Bank. The other two sources are based on a study done by Omira et al (2009) regarding the design of a Sea-level Tsunami Detection Network for the Gulf of Cadiz. In the framework of this study there are analyzed different areas of seismic activity in the South of Portugal and proposed some possible earthquake sources and characteristics. The tsunami propagation simulations were performed using MOHID modelling system which is an open source three-dimensional water modelling system, developed by Hidromod and MARETEC (Marine and Environmental Technology Research Center - Technical University of Lisbon). As a result of the study detailed inundation maps associated to the different events and to different tide levels were produced. As a result of the combination of these maps with the available information of the city infrastructures (building types, roads and streets characteristics, prioritary buildings, etc.) there were also produced high scale vulnerability maps, escape routes, emergency routes maps.

Distinguishing dark matter from unresolved point sources in the Inner Galaxy with photon statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Samuel K.; Lisanti, Mariangela; Safdi, Benjamin R., E-mail: samuelkl@princeton.edu, E-mail: mlisanti@princeton.edu, E-mail: bsafdi@princeton.edu

2015-05-01

Data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope suggests that there is an extended excess of GeV gamma-ray photons in the Inner Galaxy. Identifying potential astrophysical sources that contribute to this excess is an important step in verifying whether the signal originates from annihilating dark matter. In this paper, we focus on the potential contribution of unresolved point sources, such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). We propose that the statistics of the photons—in particular, the flux probability density function (PDF) of the photon counts below the point-source detection threshold—can potentially distinguish between the dark-matter and point-source interpretations. We calculate the flux PDFmore » via the method of generating functions for these two models of the excess. Working in the framework of Bayesian model comparison, we then demonstrate that the flux PDF can potentially provide evidence for an unresolved MSP-like point-source population.« less

Instantaneous and time-averaged dispersion and measurement models for estimation theory applications with elevated point source plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diamante, J. M.; Englar, T. S., Jr.; Jazwinski, A. H.

1977-01-01

Estimation theory, which originated in guidance and control research, is applied to the analysis of air quality measurements and atmospheric dispersion models to provide reliable area-wide air quality estimates. A method for low dimensional modeling (in terms of the estimation state vector) of the instantaneous and time-average pollutant distributions is discussed. In particular, the fluctuating plume model of Gifford (1959) is extended to provide an expression for the instantaneous concentration due to an elevated point source. Individual models are also developed for all parameters in the instantaneous and the time-average plume equations, including the stochastic properties of the instantaneous fluctuating plume.

Natural gas availability and ambient air quality in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans industrial complex

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fieler, E.R.; Harrison, D.P.

1978-02-26

Three scenarios were modeled for the Baton Rouge/New Orleans area for 1985: one assumes the substitution of residual oil (0.7% sulfur) for gas to decrease gas-burning stationary sources from 80 to 8% and the use of properly designed stacks for large emitters; the second makes identical gas supply assumptions but adds proper stack dispersion for medium as well as large emitters; and the third is based on 16% gas-burning stationary sources. The Climatological Dispersion Model was used to translate (1974) emission rates into ambient air concentrations. Growth rates for residential, commercial, and transportation sources, but not industry, were considered. Themore » results show that proper policies, which would require not only tall stacks for large oil burning units (and for intermediate units also in the areas of high industrial concentration), but also the careful location of new plants would permit continued industrial expansion without severe air pollution problems.« less

Modelling mass movement susceptibility for Alpine infrastructure in the Karavank Mountains (Austria/Slovenia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, C.; Kern, K.; Lieb, G. K.

2012-12-01

The aim of this study is the generation of indicative susceptibility maps on a regional scale that can be used as a decision support tool for land use management (i.e. risk potential on alpine infrastructure). The study in particular focuses on geomorphological processes (rockfall and debris flows in unconsolidated rock) that reshape the land surface by erosion, transport and deposition. When interacting with human activity (e.g. road, alpine trails) such naturally occurring processes can quickly become natural hazards. The study area is located in the Karavank Mountains, a border region between Austria and Slovenia, and covers approx. 200 sq km with maximum altitudes above 2.000 m a.s.l. (Hochstuhl: 2.237 m a.s.l.). The Karavanks form an east-west striking mountain chain (approx. 120 km total length) of the southeastern Alps that consists mainly of thick Triassic carbonate sequences and, with less extent, Paleozoic carbonate rocks crystalline rocks. The mountain chain is separated into the Northern Karavanks and the Southern Karavanks by a structural boundary (Periadriatic Line). In addition, the area is known for extreme weather events due to Adriatic cyclones with daily accumulated precipitation of more than 200 mm that regularly trigger hazardous and torrential processes like rockfall events and debris flows. To assess the triggering factors and trajectories, two different disposition and process models (one for rockfall and one for debris flow, respectively) were developed. The information about potential source areas was obtained by combining various types of information (e.g. DTM derivatives, geotechnical units, vegetation). Threshold slope values for potential rockfall source areas were attributed to different lithological units according to field observations. The defined threshold slope angles cover values from 42° in Triassic carbonates up to 46° in massive crystalline rocks. For debris flows areas with a slope inclination < 20° as well as areas with dense vegetation were excluded as potential source areas. In the next step, the rockfall runout zones were estimated empirically using the cone method. This model is based on the idea that an individual falling rock can reach any place in the area situated inside a cone of given aperture. In contrast, for modelling debris flows, a multiple flow directions method was used to calculate potential pathways and velocities. The method is implemented as a random walk in conjunction with a Monte Carlo approach (using 1000 iterations). Both models were calibrated with field observation data (e.g. GPS measurements) and in addition, model results were validated with high resolution aerial photographs. By overlaying the modelling results with road and trail network information, susceptibility maps were created. These maps clearly show that large parts of the existing Alpine infrastructure are potentially affected by the modelled processes. Therefore, the resulting susceptibility maps provide as a useful tool to indicate areas prone to rockfall and debris flow as well as for the maintenance of the road and trail networks.

Optimization of PV/WIND/DIESEL Hybrid Power System in HOMER for Rural Electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Q.; Jaszczur, M.; Abdulateef, J.

2016-09-01

A large proportion of the world's population lives in remote rural areas that are geographically isolated and sparsely populated. The present study is based on modeling, computer simulation and optimization of hybrid power generation system in the rural area in Muqdadiyah district of Diyala state, Iraq. Two renewable resources, namely, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) are considered. The HOMER software is used to study and design the proposed hybrid energy system model. Based on simulation results, it has been found that renewable energy sources perhaps replace the conventional energy sources and would be a feasible solution for the generation of electric power at remote locations with a reasonable investment. The hybrid power system solution to electrify the selected area resulted in a least-cost combination of the hybrid power system that can meet the demand in a dependable manner at a cost about (0.321/kWh). If the wind resources in the study area at the lower stage, it's not economically viable for a wind turbine to generate the electricity.

Integration of contributed data with HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model for flood inundation and damage assessment: 2015 Dallas Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sava, E.; Thornton, J. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.; Cervone, G.

2016-12-01

Transportation infrastructure networks in urban areas are highly sensitive to natural disasters, yet are a very critical source for the success of rescue, recovery, and renovation operations. Therefore, prompt restoration of such networks is of high importance for disaster relief services. Satellite and aerial images provide data with high spatial and temporal resolution and are a powerful tool for monitoring the environment and mapping the spatio-temporal variability of the Earth's surface. They provide a synoptic overview and give useful environmental information for a wide range of scales, from entire continents to urban areas, with spatial pixel resolutions ranging from kilometers to centimeters. However, sensor limitations are often a serious drawback since no single sensor offers the optimal spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution at the same time. Specific data may not be collected in the time and space most urgently required and/or may it contain gaps as a result of the satellite revisit time, atmospheric opacity, or other obstructions. In this study, the feasibility of integrating multiple sources of contributed data including remotely sensed datasets and open-source geospatial datasets, into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. The 2015 Dallas floods that caused up to $61 million dollars in damage was selected for this study. A Hydraulic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was developed for the study area, using reservoir surcharge releases and geometry provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District. The simulated flood inundation is compared with the "contributed data" for the location (such as Civil Air Patrol data and WorldView 3 dataset) which indicated the model's lack of representing lateral inflows near the upstream section. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed that used local precipitation and discharge values in the vicinity to estimate the lateral flows. This addition of estimated lateral inflows is expected to improve the model performance to match with the observed flows. Future work will focus on extending this preliminary work to assess the model performance after integrating these additional data sources.

[Water environmental capacity calculation model for the rivers in drinking water source conservation area].

PubMed

Chen, Ding-jiang; Lü, Jun; Shen, Ye-na; Jin, Shu-quan; Shi, Yi-ming

2008-09-01

Based on the one-dimension model for water environmental capacity (WEC) in river, a new model for the WEC estimation in river-reservoir system was developed in drinking water source conservation area (DWSCA). In the new model, the concept was introduced that the water quality target of the rivers in DWSCA was determined by the water quality demand of reservoir for drinking water source. It implied that the WEC of the reservoir could be used as the water quality control target at the reach-end of the upstream rivers in DWSCA so that the problems for WEC estimation might be avoided that the differences of the standards for a water quality control target between in river and in reservoir, such as the criterions differences for total phosphorus (TP)/total nitrogen (TN) between in reservoir and in river according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard of China (GB 3838-2002), and the difference of designed hydrology conditions for WEC estimation between in reservoir and in river. The new model described the quantitative relationship between the WEC of drinking water source and of the river, and it factually expressed the continuity and interplay of these low water areas. As a case study, WEC for the rivers in DWSCA of Laohutan reservoir located in southeast China was estimated using the new model. Results indicated that the WEC for TN and TP was 65.05 t x a(-1) and 5.05 t x a(-1) in the rivers of the DWSCA, respectively. According to the WEC of Laohutan reservoir and current TN and TP quantity that entered into the rivers, about 33.86 t x a(-1) of current TN quantity should be reduced in the DWSCA, while there was 2.23 t x a(-1) of residual WEC of TP in the rivers. The modeling method was also widely applicable for the continuous water bodies with different water quality targets, especially for the situation of higher water quality control target in downstream water body than that in upstream.

Predicting Residential Exposure to Phthalate Plasticizer Emitted from Vinyl Flooring: Sensitivity, Uncertainty, and Implications for Biomonitoring

PubMed Central

Xu, Ying; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Little, John C.

2010-01-01

Background Because of the ubiquitous nature of phthalates in the environment and the potential for adverse human health effects, an urgent need exists to identify the most important sources and pathways of exposure. Objectives Using emissions of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) from vinyl flooring (VF) as an illustrative example, we describe a fundamental approach that can be used to identify the important sources and pathways of exposure associated with phthalates in indoor material. Methods We used a three-compartment model to estimate the emission rate of DEHP from VF and the evolving exposures via inhalation, dermal absorption, and oral ingestion of dust in a realistic indoor setting. Results A sensitivity analysis indicates that the VF source characteristics (surface area and material-phase concentration of DEHP), as well as the external mass-transfer coefficient and ventilation rate, are important variables that influence the steady-state DEHP concentration and the resulting exposure. In addition, DEHP is sorbed by interior surfaces, and the associated surface area and surface/air partition coefficients strongly influence the time to steady state. The roughly 40-fold range in predicted exposure reveals the inherent difficulty in using biomonitoring to identify specific sources of exposure to phthalates in the general population. Conclusions The relatively simple dependence on source and chemical-specific transport parameters suggests that the mechanistic modeling approach could be extended to predict exposures arising from other sources of phthalates as well as additional sources of other semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) such as biocides and flame retardants. This modeling approach could also provide a relatively inexpensive way to quantify exposure to many of the SVOCs used in indoor materials and consumer products. PMID:20123613

Predicting residential exposure to phthalate plasticizer emitted from vinyl flooring: sensitivity, uncertainty, and implications for biomonitoring.

PubMed

Xu, Ying; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A; Little, John C

2010-02-01

Because of the ubiquitous nature of phthalates in the environment and the potential for adverse human health effects, an urgent need exists to identify the most important sources and pathways of exposure. Using emissions of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) from vinyl flooring (VF) as an illustrative example, we describe a fundamental approach that can be used to identify the important sources and pathways of exposure associated with phthalates in indoor material. We used a three-compartment model to estimate the emission rate of DEHP from VF and the evolving exposures via inhalation, dermal absorption, and oral ingestion of dust in a realistic indoor setting. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the VF source characteristics (surface area and material-phase concentration of DEHP), as well as the external mass-transfer coefficient and ventilation rate, are important variables that influence the steady-state DEHP concentration and the resulting exposure. In addition, DEHP is sorbed by interior surfaces, and the associated surface area and surface/air partition coefficients strongly influence the time to steady state. The roughly 40-fold range in predicted exposure reveals the inherent difficulty in using biomonitoring to identify specific sources of exposure to phthalates in the general population. The relatively simple dependence on source and chemical-specific transport parameters suggests that the mechanistic modeling approach could be extended to predict exposures arising from other sources of phthalates as well as additional sources of other semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) such as biocides and flame retardants. This modeling approach could also provide a relatively inexpensive way to quantify exposure to many of the SVOCs used in indoor materials and consumer products.

Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

2013-09-01

Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

The Fermi Large Area Telescope Thrid Gamma-ray Source Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Thomas E.; Ballet, Jean; Burnett, Toby; Cavazzuti, Elisabetta; Digel, Seth William; Fermi LAT Collaboration

2015-01-01

We present an overview of the third Fermi Large Area Telescope source catalog (3FGL) of sources in the 100 MeV - 300 GeV range. Based on the first four years of science data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope mission, it is the deepest yet in this energy range. Relative to the 2FGL catalog (Nolan et al. 2012, ApJS 199, 31), the 3FGL catalog incorporates twice as much data as well as a number of analysis improvements, including improved calibrations at the event reconstruction level, an updated model for Galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission, a refined procedure for source detection, and improved methods for associating LAT sources with potential counterparts at other wavelengths. The 3FGL catalog includes 3033 sources, with source location regions, spectral properties, and monthly light curves for each. For approximately one-third of the sources we have not found counterparts at other wavelengths. More than 1100 of the identified or associated sources are active galaxies of the blazar class; several other classes of non-blazar active galaxies are also represented in the 3FGL. Pulsars represent the largest Galactic source class. From source counts of Galactic sources we estimate the contribution of unresolved sources to the Galactic diffuse emission.

Study of Chinese pollution with the 3D regional chemistry transport CHIMERE model and remote sensing observations, with a focus on mineral dust impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachatre, Mathieu; Foret, Gilles; Beekmann, Matthias; Cheiney, Audrey; Dufour, Gaëlle; Laurent, Benoit; Cuesta, Juan

2017-04-01

Since the end of the 20th century, China has observed important growth in numerous sectors. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been multiply by 4 during the 2000-2010 decade (National Bureau of Statistics of China), mostly because of the industry's growth. These evolutions have been accompanied by important increases of atmospheric pollutants emissions (Yinmin et al, Atmo Env, 2016). As a consequence and for about 10 years now, Chinese authorities have been working to reduce pollutant levels, because atmospheric pollution is a major health issue for Chinese population especially within cities, for which World Health Organisation's standards for major pollutants (Ozone, PM2.5, PM10) are often exceeded. Particles have multiple issues, as they impact on health and global warming. Their impacts will depend on their sources (primary or secondary pollutants) and natures (Particle size distribution, chemical composition…). Controlling particles loading is a complex task as their sources are various and dispersed on the Chinese territories: mineral dust can be emitted from Chinese deserts in large amount (Laurent et al., GPC, 2006), ammonia can be emitted from agriculture and livestock (Kang et al., ACP, 2016) and lots of urban primary pollutants can be emitted from urbanized areas. It is then necessary to work from a continental to local scales to understand more precisely pollution of urbanized areas. It is then mandatory to discriminate and quantify pollution sources and to estimate the impact of natural pollution and the major contributing sources. We propose here an approach based on a model and satellite observation synergy to estimate what controls Chinese pollution. We use the regional chemistry transport model CHIMERE (Menut et al., GMD, 2013) to simulate atmospheric pollutants concentrations. A large domain (72°E-145°E; 17.5°N-55°N), with a ¼°x¼° resolution is used to make multi-annual simulations. CHIMERE model include most of the pollutants sources, and using a soil properties database is able to model Dust emissions (Laurent B. et al., JGR, 2005). Satellite products are available to evaluate and improve our simulations, as for example the AOD and Angstrom coefficient from the MODIS instrument. Mineral dust pollution represents one of the most important sources of atmospheric pollutant over Chinese territories, but dust emissions and transport present important seasonal variabilities. To evaluate impacts of dust pollutants on inhabited areas' pollutions, we compute dust emissions (Marticorena and Bergametti, JGR, 1995) and transport. Using MODIS instrument information over dust source regions, we control that AOD amplitudes and temporal variations simulated with CHIMERE correspond. We attempt to quantify the impact of mineral dust pollution each month over several urbanized areas using multi-annual simulations (2011, 2013, and 2015). We also investigate the impact of heavy dust events within inhabited areas' pollution. This work is also part of the French funded project "Pollution in Eastern Asia: towards better air quality prevision and impacts' evaluation".

Performance Analysis of Isolated Hybrid Power Plant Model with Dynamic Load Conditions - Morning, Noon and Afternoon Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irawati, Rina

2018-02-01

Diesel Generator with Photovoltaic Hybrid Power Plant is one of the solutions for supply electric demand to isolated area. The energy sources that can be used for hybrid system are such as photovoltaic, wind turbine, and biomass or biogas, because these sources are almost available in every isolated area. This research used a model of hybrid system from diesel generator and 1.28 kWp photovoltaic power plant. The reliability and some of power quality of this system tested by 1300VA house hold daily load characteristic effectively 24 hour. Power quality and some electricity parameters during transition mode for each resource will be analyzed. Furthermore the power quality analyze will be conducted and evaluated base on Electrical Engineers' Association (EEA).

Multivariate matrix model for source identification of inrush water: A case study from Renlou and Tongting coal mine in northern Anhui province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jun; Yao, Duoxi; Su, Yue

2018-02-01

Under the current situation of energy demand, coal is still one of the major energy sources in China for a certain period of time, so the task of coal mine safety production remains arduous. In order to identify the water source of the mine accurately, this article takes the example from Renlou and Tongting coal mines in the northern Anhui mining area. A total of 7 conventional water chemical indexes were selected, including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na++K+, Cl-, SO4 2-, HCO3 - and TDS, to establish a multivariate matrix model for the source identifying inrush water. The results show that the model is simple and is rarely limited by the quantity of water samples, and the recognition effect is ideal, which can be applied to the control and treatment for water inrush.

Characteristics of fine particulate matter and its sources in an industrialized coastal city, Ningbo, Yangtze River Delta, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weifeng; Yu, Jie; Cui, Yang; He, Jun; Xue, Peng; Cao, Wan; Ying, Hongmei; Gao, Wenkang; Yan, Yingchao; Hu, Bo; Xin, Jinyuan; Wang, Lili; Liu, Zirui; Sun, Yang; Ji, Dongsheng; Wang, Yuesi

2018-05-01

Chemical information is essential in understanding the characteristics of airborne particles, and effectively controlling airborne particulate matter pollution, but it remains unclear in some regions due to the scarcity of measurement data. In the present study, 92 daily PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) samples as well as historical observation data of air pollutants were collected in urban Ningbo, one of important industrial cities in the coastal area of the Yangtze River Delta, China in autumn and winter (from Nov. 2014 to Feb. 2015). Various chemical species in PM2.5 were determined including water soluble ions, organic and elemental carbon and elements. Positive matrix factorization model, cluster analysis of back trajectories, potential source contribution function (PSCF) model and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) model were used for identifying sources, apportioning contributions from each source and tracking potential areas of sources. The results showed the PM2.5 concentration has been reducing; nonetheless, the concentrations of PM2.5 are still much higher than the World Health Organization guideline with high PM2.5 concentrations observed in autumn and winter for the past few years. During the sampling period, the average PM2.5 mass concentration was 77 μg/m3 with the major components of OC, NO3-, SO42 -, NH4+ and EC, accounting for 24.7, 18.8, 14.5, 11.8 and 6.4% in the total mass concentration, respectively. When the aerosol pollution got worse during the sampling period, the NO3-, SO42 - and NH4+ concentrations increased accordingly and NO3- appeared to increase at fastest rate. SO42 - transported from industrial areas led to slight difference in spatial distribution of SO42 - in Ningbo. More secondary organic carbon was formed and the enrichment factor values of Cu, Ag, Cd, Sn and Pb increased with the degradation of air quality. Ten types of sources were identified for PM2.5 in the autumn and winter of Ningbo, which are metallurgical industry, biomass burning and waste incineration, manufacturing related with Mo, chlor-alkli chemical industry, oil combustion, vehicular emission, secondary source, soil dust, road dust and manufacturing related with Cr, accounting for 9.4, 4.8, 9.4, 7.6, 8.1, 18.7, 27.6, 2, 7.1 and 5.2% of the total sources, respectively. There were five groups of air parcels arriving in Ningbo, of which inland air masses originating from Shandong province were associated with the highest PM2.5 concentrations. Despite the slight differences, it was obvious that the north of Jiangxi, east of Anhui, west of Jiangsu, south of Shandong were identified as major potential sources-areas of SO42 -, NO3-, NH4+, Cl-, OC and EC by both PSCF and CWT models.

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Updated Conceptual Model for the 300 Area Uranium Groundwater Plume

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zachara, John M.; Freshley, Mark D.; Last, George V.

2012-11-01

The 300 Area uranium groundwater plume in the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit is residual from past discharge of nuclear fuel fabrication wastes to a number of liquid (and solid) disposal sites. The source zones in the disposal sites were remediated by excavation and backfilled to grade, but sorbed uranium remains in deeper, unexcavated vadose zone sediments. In spite of source term removal, the groundwater plume has shown remarkable persistence, with concentrations exceeding the drinking water standard over an area of approximately 1 km2. The plume resides within a coupled vadose zone, groundwater, river zone system of immense complexity and scale. Interactionsmore » between geologic structure, the hydrologic system driven by the Columbia River, groundwater-river exchange points, and the geochemistry of uranium contribute to persistence of the plume. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) to document characterization of the 300 Area uranium plume and plan for beginning to implement proposed remedial actions. As part of the RI/FS document, a conceptual model was developed that integrates knowledge of the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties of the 300 Area and controlling processes to yield an understanding of how the system behaves and the variables that control it. Recent results from the Hanford Integrated Field Research Challenge site and the Subsurface Biogeochemistry Scientific Focus Area Project funded by the DOE Office of Science were used to update the conceptual model and provide an assessment of key factors controlling plume persistence.« less

Source analysis of electrophysiological correlates of beat induction as sensory-guided action

PubMed Central

Todd, Neil P. M.; Lee, Christopher S.

2015-01-01

In this paper we present a reanalysis of electrophysiological data originally collected to test a sensory-motor theory of beat induction (Todd et al., 2002; Todd and Seiss, 2004; Todd and Lee, 2015). The reanalysis is conducted in the light of more recent findings and in particular the demonstration that auditory evoked potentials contain a vestibular dependency. At the core of the analysis is a model which predicts brain dipole source current activity over time in temporal and frontal lobe areas during passive listening to a rhythm, or active synchronization, where it dissociates the frontal activity into distinct sources which can be identified as respectively pre-motor and motor in origin. The model successfully captures the main features of the rhythm in showing that the metrical structure is manifest in an increase in source current activity during strong compared to weak beats. In addition the outcomes of modeling suggest that: (1) activity in both temporal and frontal areas contribute to the metrical percept and that this activity is distributed over time; (2) transient, time-locked activity associated with anticipated beats is increased when a temporal expectation is confirmed following a previous violation, such as a syncopation; (3) two distinct processes are involved in auditory cortex, corresponding to tangential and radial (possibly vestibular dependent) current sources. We discuss the implications of these outcomes for the insights they give into the origin of metrical structure and the power of syncopation to induce movement and create a sense of groove. PMID:26321991

Fermi Large Area Telescope observations of the active galaxy 4C +55.17: Steady, hard gamma-ray emission and its implications

DOE PAGES

McConville, W.; Ostorero, L.; Moderski, R.; ...

2011-08-19

Here, we report Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations and broadband spectral modeling of the radio-loud active galaxy 4C +55.17 (z = 0.896), formally classified as a flat-spectrum radio quasar. Using 19 months of all-sky survey Fermi-LAT data, we detect a γ-ray continuum extending up to an observed energy of 145 GeV, and furthermore we find no evidence of γ-ray variability in the source over its observed history. We illustrate the implications of these results in two different domains. First, we investigate the origin of the steady γ-ray emission, where we re-examine the common classification of 4C +55.17 as amore » quasar-hosted blazar and consider instead its possible nature as a young radio source. We analyze and compare constraints on the source physical parameters in both blazar and young radio source scenarios by means of a detailed multiwavelength analysis and theoretical modeling of its broadband spectrum. Second, we show that the γ-ray spectrum may be formally extrapolated into the very high energy (VHE, ≥100 GeV) range at a flux level detectable by the current generation of ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. This enables us to place constraints on models of extragalactic background light within LAT energies and features the source as a promising candidate for VHE studies of the universe at an unprecedented redshift of z = 0.896.« less

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Source apportionment of PM2.5 across China using LOTOS-EUROS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, R.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A.; Hendriks, C.; Segers, A.; Dammers, E.; Zhang, Q.; Wang, L.; Liu, Z.; Zeng, L.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Schaap, M.

2017-09-01

China's population is exposed to high levels of particulate matter (PM) due to its strong economic growth and associated urbanization and industrialization. To support policy makers to develop cost effective mitigation strategies it is of crucial importance to understand the emission sources as well as formation routes responsible for high pollution levels. In this study we applied the LOTOS-EUROS model with its module to track the contributions of predefined source sectors to China for the year 2013 using the MEIC emission inventory. It is the first application of the model system to a region outside Europe. The source attribution was aimed to provide insight in the sector and area of origin of PM2.5 for the cities of Beijing and Shanghai. The source attribution shows that on average about half of the PM2.5 pollution in both cities originates from the municipality itself. About a quarter of the PM2.5 comes from the neighbouring provinces, whereas the remaining quarter is attributed to long range transport from anthropogenic and natural components. Residential combustion, transport, and industry are identified as the main sources with comparable contributions allocated to these sectors. The importance of the sectors varies throughout the year and differs slightly between the cities. During winter, urban contributions from residential combustion are dominant, whereas industrial and traffic contributions with a larger share of regional transport are more important during summer. The evaluation of the model results against satellite and in-situ observations shows the ability of the LOTOS-EUROS model to capture many features of the variability in particulate matter and its precursors in China. The model shows a systematic underestimation of particulate matter concentrations, especially in winter. This illustrates that modelling particulate matter remains challenging as it comes to components like secondary organic aerosol and suspended dust as well as emissions and formation of PM during winter time haze situations. All in all, the LOTOS-EUROS system proves to be a powerful tool for policy support applications outside Europe as the intermediate complexity of the model allows the assessment of the area and sector of origin over decadal time periods.

Characterisation of sources and pathways of microbiological pollutants to protect remote private water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, Aaron; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Strachan, Norval; Hough, Rupert; Soulsby, Chris

2016-04-01

In order to comply with legislation such as the Water Framework Directive and to safeguard public health, there is a critical need to maintain the quality of water sources that are used to supply drinking water. Private water supplies (PWS) are still common in many rural areas in the UK, and are especially vulnerable to poor water quality, owing to the limited treatment they often receive and variable raw water quality in groundwater and surface water sources. A significant issue affecting PWS quality is contamination by faecal pathogens derived from grazing animals or agricultural practices. In Scotland, approximately 20,000 PWS serve around 200,000 people, with a number of these PWS consistently failing to meet water quality targets relating to coliform bacteria and E. coli, both of which can be indicative of faecal contamination (faecal indicator organisms - FIOs). The purpose of our study was to employ integrated empirical and modelling approaches from hydrology and microbiology to elucidate the nature of the still poorly-understood interplay between hydrological flow pathways which connect sources of pathogens to PWS sources, antecedent conditions, seasonality and pathogen transfer risk, for two catchments with contrasting land uses in Scotland: an agricultural catchment (Tarland Burn) and a montane catchment (Bruntland Burn). In the Tarland Burn, 15 years of spatially-distributed samples collected at the catchment-scale of FIO counts were analysed alongside hydrometric data to identify "hot spots" of faecal pathogen transfer risk and possible spatial and temporal controls. We also used a combination of tracer-based and numerical modelling approaches to identify the relationship between hydrological connectivity, flow pathways, and the mobilisation of faecal pathogens from different sources. In the Bruntland Burn, we coupled a pathogen storage, mobilisation and transport scheme to a previously developed tracer-informed hydrological model for the catchment to investigate temporal patterns and controls of pathogen transfer risk from different hydrological source areas identified from extensive past tracer and numerical modelling work: groundwater, hillslopes and the dynamic riparian zone.

Feature-Selective Attentional Modulations in Human Frontoparietal Cortex.

PubMed

Ester, Edward F; Sutterer, David W; Serences, John T; Awh, Edward

2016-08-03

Control over visual selection has long been framed in terms of a dichotomy between "source" and "site," where top-down feedback signals originating in frontoparietal cortical areas modulate or bias sensory processing in posterior visual areas. This distinction is motivated in part by observations that frontoparietal cortical areas encode task-level variables (e.g., what stimulus is currently relevant or what motor outputs are appropriate), while posterior sensory areas encode continuous or analog feature representations. Here, we present evidence that challenges this distinction. We used fMRI, a roving searchlight analysis, and an inverted encoding model to examine representations of an elementary feature property (orientation) across the entire human cortical sheet while participants attended either the orientation or luminance of a peripheral grating. Orientation-selective representations were present in a multitude of visual, parietal, and prefrontal cortical areas, including portions of the medial occipital cortex, the lateral parietal cortex, and the superior precentral sulcus (thought to contain the human homolog of the macaque frontal eye fields). Additionally, representations in many-but not all-of these regions were stronger when participants were instructed to attend orientation relative to luminance. Collectively, these findings challenge models that posit a strict segregation between sources and sites of attentional control on the basis of representational properties by demonstrating that simple feature values are encoded by cortical regions throughout the visual processing hierarchy, and that representations in many of these areas are modulated by attention. Influential models of visual attention posit a distinction between top-down control and bottom-up sensory processing networks. These models are motivated in part by demonstrations showing that frontoparietal cortical areas associated with top-down control represent abstract or categorical stimulus information, while visual areas encode parametric feature information. Here, we show that multivariate activity in human visual, parietal, and frontal cortical areas encode representations of a simple feature property (orientation). Moreover, representations in several (though not all) of these areas were modulated by feature-based attention in a similar fashion. These results provide an important challenge to models that posit dissociable top-down control and sensory processing networks on the basis of representational properties. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/368188-12$15.00/0.

Methodology of determining soil structure in important groundwater areas: case studies in Kauvonkangas, Finnish Lapland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupila, Juho

2016-04-01

Finland is fully self-sufficient in clean groundwater and even has a capacity of exportation. There are approx. 6000 groundwater areas with a total yield of 5.4 million m3/day. Currently only 10% of this groundwater resource is in use. For the efficient and safe exploitation of these areas in the future, detailed modeling of soil structure is an important method in groundwater surveys. 3D -models improve the general knowledge of linkage between land use planning and groundwater protection. Results can be used as a base information in water supply service development and when performing the measures needed in case of environmental accidents. Also, when creating the groundwater flow models the collected information is utilized and is usually the main data source. Geological Survey of Finland has carried out soil structure studies in co-operation with authorities, municipalities and the local water suppliers. The main objectives of these projects are to determine the geological structure of groundwater area for estimating the validity of the present exclusion area, the quantity of ground water volume and recharge capability and possible risks to the groundwater. Research areas are usually under an active water supply service. Kauvonkangas groundwater area is located in the municipality of Tervola, in Southern part of Finnish Lapland. Extent of the area is 7.9 km2 and it is an important water source for the local and nearby population centers. There are two active water supply companies in the area. Field studies in the project will include general geological and hydrological mapping, soil drilling with observation pipe installation, test pumping and water sampling. Geophysical measures will play a key-role, including ground penetrating radar (GPR) and gravimetric measurements. Studies will be carried out in spring and summer 2016. The main results will be the models of the bedrock and groundwater level and main characteristics of the soil layers in the area. Results will also include the main flow directions of the groundwater. Structure models will be done with Groundhog -software. Kauvonkangas -project is funded by local water supply companies Meri-Lapin Vesi and Tervolan Vesi, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and Geological Survey of Finland.

Development of Source-Receptor matrix over South Korea in support of GAINS-Korea model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, K. C.; Woo, J. H.; Kim, H. K.; Lee, Y. M.; Kim, Y.; Heyes, C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Han, J.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive and combined analysis of air pollution and climate change could reveal important synergies of emission control measures, which could be of high policy relevance. IIASA's GAINS model (The Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) has been developed as a tool to identify emission control strategies that achieve given targets on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions at least costs. The GAINS-Korea Model, which is being jointly developed by Konkuk University and IIASA, should play an important role in understanding the impact of air quality improvements across the regions in Korea. Source-Receptor relationships (S-R) is an useful methodology in air pollution studies to determine the areas of origin of chemical compounds at receptor point, and thus be able to target actions to reduce pollutions. The GAINS model can assess the impact of emission reductions of sources on air quality in receptor regions based on S-R matrix, derived from chemical transport model. In order to develop S-R matrix for GAINS-Korea, the CAMx model with PSAT/OSAT tools was applied in this study. The coarse domain covers East Asia, and a nesting domain as main research area was used for Korea peninsula. To evaluate of S-R relationships, a modeling domain is divided into sixteen regions over South Korea with three outside of S. Korea countries (China, N. Korea and Japan) for estimating transboundary contributions. The results of our analysis will be presented at the conference.

Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

1998-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

Estimation of surface water storage in the Congo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, F.; Neal, J. C.; Schumann, G.; Beighley, E.; Bates, P. D.

2015-12-01

For many large river basins, especially in Africa, the lack of access to in-situ measurements, and the large areas involved, make modelling of water storage and runoff difficult. However, remote sensing datasets are useful alternative sources of information, which overcome these issues. In this study, we focus on the Congo Basin and, in particular, the cuvette central. Despite being the second largest river basin on earth and containing a large percentage of the world's tropical wetlands and forest, little is known about this basin's hydrology. Combining discharge estimates from in-situ measurements and outputs from a hydrological model, we build the first large-scale hydrodynamic model for this region to estimate the volume of water stored in the corresponding floodplains and to investigate how important these floodplains are to the behaviour of the overall system. This hydrodynamic model covers an area over 1.6 million square kilometres and 13 thousand kilometres of rivers and is calibrated to water surface heights at 33 virtual gauging stations obtained from ESA's Envisat satellite. Our results show that the use of different sources of discharge estimations and calibration via Envisat observations can produce accurate water levels and downstream discharges. Our model produced un-biased (bias =-0.08 m), sub-metre Root Mean Square Error (RMSE =0.862 m) with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 80% (NSE =0.81). The spatial-temporal variations in our simulated inundated areas are consistent with the pattern obtained from satellites. Overall, we find a high correlation coefficient (R =0.88) between our modelled inundated areas and those estimated from satellites.

Factors influencing mobile source particulate matter emissions-to-exposure relationships in the Boston urban area.

PubMed

Greco, Susan L; Wilson, Andrew M; Hanna, Steven R; Levy, Jonathan I

2007-11-15

Benefit-cost and regulatory impact analyses often use atmospheric dispersion models with coarse resolution to estimate the benefits of proposed mobile source emission control regulations. This approach may bias health estimates or miss important intra-urban variability for primary air pollutants. In this study, we estimate primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) intake fractions (iF; the fraction of a pollutant emitted from a source that is inhaled by the population) for each of 23 398 road segments in the Boston Metro Core area to evaluate the potential for intra-urban variability in the emissions-to-exposure relationship. We estimate iFs using the CAL3QHCR line source model combined with residential populations within 5000 m of each road segment. The annual average values for the road segments range from 0.8 to 53 per million, with a mean of 12 per million. On average, 46% of the total exposure is realized within 200 m of the road segment, though this varies from 0 to 93% largely due to variable population patterns. Our findings indicate the likelihood of substantial intra-urban variability in mobile source primary PM2.5 iF that accounting for population movement with time, localized meteorological conditions, and street-canyon configurations would likely increase.

MicMac GIS application: free open source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, L.; Moutinho, O.; Teodoro, A.

2016-10-01

The use of Remotely Piloted Aerial System (RPAS) for remote sensing applications is becoming more frequent as the technologies on on-board cameras and the platform itself are becoming a serious contender to satellite and airplane imagery. MicMac is a photogrammetric tool for image matching that can be used in different contexts. It is an open source software and it can be used as a command line or with a graphic interface (for each command). The main objective of this work was the integration of MicMac with QGIS, which is also an open source software, in order to create a new open source tool applied to photogrammetry/remote sensing. Python language was used to develop the application. This tool would be very useful in the manipulation and 3D modelling of a set of images. The main objective was to create a toolbar in QGIS with the basic functionalities with intuitive graphic interfaces. The toolbar is composed by three buttons: produce the points cloud, create the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and produce the orthophoto of the study area. The application was tested considering 35 photos, a subset of images acquired by a RPAS in the Aguda beach area, Porto, Portugal. They were used in order to create a 3D terrain model and from this model obtain an orthophoto and the corresponding DEM. The code is open and can be modified according to the user requirements. This integration would be very useful in photogrammetry and remote sensing community combined with GIS capabilities.

Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico from Streams in the South-Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, R.A.; Houston, N.A.; Mize, S.V.; Pearson, D.K.; Ging, P.B.; Evan, Hornig C.

2011-01-01

SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to estimate nutrient inputs [total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP)] to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico from streams in the South-Central United States (U.S.). This area included drainages of the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf hydrologic regions. The models were standardized to reflect nutrient sources and stream conditions during 2002. Model predictions of nutrient loads (mass per time) and yields (mass per area per time) generally were greatest in streams in the eastern part of the region and along reaches near the Texas and Louisiana shoreline. The Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River watersheds, which drain nearly two-thirds of the conterminous U.S., delivered the largest nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, as expected. However, the three largest delivered TN yields were from the Trinity River/Galveston Bay, Calcasieu River, and Aransas River watersheds, while the three largest delivered TP yields were from the Calcasieu River, Mermentau River, and Trinity River/Galveston Bay watersheds. Model output indicated that the three largest sources of nitrogen from the region were atmospheric deposition (42%), commercial fertilizer (20%), and livestock manure (unconfined, 17%). The three largest sources of phosphorus were commercial fertilizer (28%), urban runoff (23%), and livestock manure (confined and unconfined, 23%). ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Power Generation from a Radiative Thermal Source Using a Large-Area Infrared Rectenna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shank, Joshua; Kadlec, Emil A.; Jarecki, Robert L.; Starbuck, Andrew; Howell, Stephen; Peters, David W.; Davids, Paul S.

2018-05-01

Electrical power generation from a moderate-temperature thermal source by means of direct conversion of infrared radiation is important and highly desirable for energy harvesting from waste heat and micropower applications. Here, we demonstrate direct rectified power generation from an unbiased large-area nanoantenna-coupled tunnel diode rectifier called a rectenna. Using a vacuum radiometric measurement technique with irradiation from a temperature-stabilized thermal source, a generated power density of 8 nW /cm2 is observed at a source temperature of 450 °C for the unbiased rectenna across an optimized load resistance. The optimized load resistance for the peak power generation for each temperature coincides with the tunnel diode resistance at zero bias and corresponds to the impedance matching condition for a rectifying antenna. Current-voltage measurements of a thermally illuminated large-area rectenna show current zero crossing shifts into the second quadrant indicating rectification. Photon-assisted tunneling in the unbiased rectenna is modeled as the mechanism for the large short-circuit photocurrents observed where the photon energy serves as an effective bias across the tunnel junction. The measured current and voltage across the load resistor as a function of the thermal source temperature represents direct current electrical power generation.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL OF GALACTIC INTERSTELLAR EMISSION FOR STANDARD POINT-SOURCE ANALYSIS OF FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acero, F.; Ballet, J.; Ackermann, M.

2016-04-01

Most of the celestial γ rays detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope originate from the interstellar medium when energetic cosmic rays interact with interstellar nucleons and photons. Conventional point-source and extended-source studies rely on the modeling of this diffuse emission for accurate characterization. Here, we describe the development of the Galactic Interstellar Emission Model (GIEM), which is the standard adopted by the LAT Collaboration and is publicly available. This model is based on a linear combination of maps for interstellar gas column density in Galactocentric annuli and for the inverse-Compton emission producedmore » in the Galaxy. In the GIEM, we also include large-scale structures like Loop I and the Fermi bubbles. The measured gas emissivity spectra confirm that the cosmic-ray proton density decreases with Galactocentric distance beyond 5 kpc from the Galactic Center. The measurements also suggest a softening of the proton spectrum with Galactocentric distance. We observe that the Fermi bubbles have boundaries with a shape similar to a catenary at latitudes below 20° and we observe an enhanced emission toward their base extending in the north and south Galactic directions and located within ∼4° of the Galactic Center.« less

Development of the Model of Galactic Interstellar Emission for Standard Point-Source Analysis of Fermi Large Area Telescope Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acero, F.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Bellazzini, R.; Brandt, T. J.;

Estimation of the contributions of long range transported aerosol in East Asia to carbonaceous aerosol and PM concentrations in Seoul, Korea using highly time resolved measurements: a PSCF model approach.

PubMed

Jeong, Ukkyo; Kim, Jhoon; Lee, Hanlim; Jung, Jinsang; Kim, Young J; Song, Chul H; Koo, Ja-Ho

2011-07-01

The contributions of long range transported aerosol in East Asia to carbonaceous aerosol and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in Seoul, Korea were estimated with potential source contribution function (PSCF) calculations. Carbonaceous aerosol (organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)), PM(2.5), and PM(10) concentrations were measured from April 2007 to March 2008 in Seoul, Korea. The PSCF and concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) receptor models were used to identify the spatial source distributions of OC, EC, PM(2.5), and coarse particles. Heavily industrialized areas in Northeast China such as Harbin and Changchun and East China including the Pearl River Delta region, the Yangtze River Delta region, and the Beijing-Tianjin region were identified as high OC, EC and PM(2.5) source areas. The conditional PSCF analysis was introduced so as to distinguish the influence of aerosol transported from heavily polluted source areas on a receptor site from that transported from relatively clean areas. The source contributions estimated using the conditional PSCF analysis account for not only the aerosol concentrations of long range transported aerosols but also the number of transport days effective on the measurement site. Based on the proposed algorithm, the condition of airmass pathways was classified into two types: one condition where airmass passed over the source region (PS) and another condition where airmass did not pass over the source region (NPS). For most of the seasons during the measurement period, 249.5-366.2% higher OC, EC, PM(2.5), and coarse particle concentrations were observed at the measurement site under PS conditions than under NPS conditions. Seasonal variations in the concentrations of OC, EC, PM(2.5), and coarse particles under PS, NPS, and background aerosol conditions were quantified. The contributions of long range transported aerosols on the OC, EC, PM(2.5), and coarse particle concentrations during several Asian dust events were also estimated. We also investigated the performance of the PSCF results obtained from combining highly time resolved measurement data and backward trajectory calculations via comparison with those from data in low resolutions. Reduced tailing effects and the larger coverage over the area of interest were observed in the PSCF results obtained from using the highly time resolved data and trajectories.

An Overview of FlamMap Fire Modeling Capabilities

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

2006-01-01

Computerized and manual systems for modeling wildland fire behavior have long been available (Rothermel 1983, Andrews 1986). These systems focus on one-dimensional behaviors and assume the fire geometry is a spreading line-fire (in contrast with point or area-source fires). Models included in these systems were developed to calculate fire spread rate (Rothermel 1972,...

The role of a detailed aqueous phase source release model in the LANL area G performance assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vold, E.L.; Shuman, R.; Hollis, D.K.

1995-12-31

A preliminary draft of the Performance Assessment for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) low-level radioactive waste disposal facility at Area G is currently being completed as required by Department of Energy orders. A detailed review of the inventory data base records and the existing models for source release led to the development of a new modeling capability to describe the liquid phase transport from the waste package volumes. Nuclide quantities are sorted down to four waste package release categories for modeling: rapid release, soil, concrete/sludge, and corrosion. Geochemistry for the waste packages was evaluated in terms of the equilibriummore » coefficients, Kds, and elemental solubility limits, Csl, interpolated from the literature. Percolation calculations for the base case closure cover show a highly skewed distribution with an average of 4 mm/yr percolation from the disposal unit bottom. The waste release model is based on a compartment representation of the package efflux, and depends on package size, percolation rate or Darcy flux, retardation coefficient, and moisture content.« less

Relationship between land-use and sources and fate of nitrate in groundwater in a typical recharge area of the North China Plain.

PubMed

Wang, Shiqin; Zheng, Wenbo; Currell, Matthew; Yang, Yonghui; Zhao, Huan; Lv, Mengyu

2017-12-31

Identification of different nitrate sources in groundwater is challenging in areas with diverse land use and multiple potential inputs. An area with mixed land-uses, typical of the piedmont-plain recharge area of the North China Plain, was selected to investigate different nitrate sources and the impact of land use on nitrate distribution in groundwater. Multiple environmental tracers were examined, including major ions, stable isotopes of water (δ 2 H-H 2 O, δ 18 O-H 2 O) and nitrate (δ 15 N-NO 3 - and δ 18 O-NO 3 - ). Groundwater was sampled from four land-use types; natural vegetation (NV), farmland (FL), economic forestland (EF) and residential areas (RA). A mixing model using δ 18 O and Cl - concentrations showed that groundwater recharge predominantly comprises precipitation and lateral groundwater flow from areas of natural vegetation in the upper catchment, while irrigation return water and wastewater from septic tanks were major inputs in farmland and residential areas, respectively. Land use variation is the major contributing factor to different nitrate concentrations. In total, 80%, 49% and 86% of samples from RA, FL and EF, respectively exceeded the WHO standard (50mg/L NO 3 - ), compared to 6.9% of samples from NV. Isotopes of δ 15 N-NO 3 - and δ 18 O-NO 3 - verified that nitrate in groundwater of the NV (with δ 15 N ranging from 1.7‰ to 4.7‰) was sourced from soil and precipitation. Examination of δ 15 N-NO 3 - vs δ 18 O-NO 3 - values along with multivariate statistical analysis (principle component and cluster analysis) helped identify sources with overlapping isotopic values in other land-use areas (where δ 15 N values range from 2.5‰ to 10.2‰). Manure and septic waste were dominant sources for most groundwater with high NO 3 - and Cl - concentrations in both farmland and residential areas. The lack of de-nitrification and fact that the area is a recharge zone for the North China Plain highlight the importance of controlling nitrate sources through careful application of manure and fertilizers, and control of septic leakage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microbial water pollution: a screening tool for initial catchment-scale assessment and source apportionment.

PubMed

Kay, D; Anthony, S; Crowther, J; Chambers, B J; Nicholson, F A; Chadwick, D; Stapleton, C M; Wyer, M D

2010-11-01

The European Union Water Framework Directive requires that Management Plans are developed for individual River Basin Districts. From the point of view of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs), there is a critical need for screening tools that can provide a rapid assessment of the likely FIO concentrations and fluxes within catchments under base- and high-flow conditions, and of the balance ('source apportionment') between agriculture- and sewage-derived sources. Accordingly, the present paper reports on: (1) the development of preliminary generic models, using water quality and land cover data from previous UK catchment studies for assessing FIO concentrations, fluxes and source apportionment within catchments during the summer bathing season; (2) the calibration of national land use data, against data previously used in the models; and (3) provisional FIO concentration and source-apportionment assessments for England and Wales. The models clearly highlighted the crucial importance of high-flow conditions for the flux of FIOs within catchments. At high flow, improved grassland (and associated livestock) was the key FIO source; FIO loadings derived from catchments with high proportions of improved grassland were shown to be as high as from urbanized catchments; and in many rural catchments, especially in NW and SW England and Wales, which are important areas of lowland livestock (especially dairy) farming, ≥ 40% of FIOs was assessed to be derived from agricultural sources. In contrast, under base-flow conditions, when there was little or no runoff from agricultural land, urban (i.e. sewerage-related) sources were assessed to dominate, and even in rural areas the majority of FIOs were attributed to urban sources. The results of the study demonstrate the potential of this type of approach, particularly in light of climate change and the likelihood of more high-flow events, in underpinning informed policy development and prioritization of investment. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of topography and crustal heterogeneities on the source estimation of LP event at Kilauea volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cesca, S.; Battaglia, J.; Dahm, T.; Tessmer, E.; Heimann, S.; Okubo, P.

2008-01-01

The main goal of this study is to improve the modelling of the source mechanism associated with the generation of long period (LP) signals in volcanic areas. Our intent is to evaluate the effects that detailed structural features of the volcanic models play in the generation of LP signal and the consequent retrieval of LP source characteristics. In particular, effects associated with the presence of topography and crustal heterogeneities are here studied in detail. We focus our study on a LP event observed at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in 2001 May. A detailed analysis of this event and its source modelling is accompanied by a set of synthetic tests, which aim to evaluate the effects of topography and the presence of low velocity shallow layers in the source region. The forward problem of Green's function generation is solved numerically following a pseudo-spectral approach, assuming different 3-D models. The inversion is done in the frequency domain and the resulting source mechanism is represented by the sum of two time-dependent terms: a full moment tensor and a single force. Synthetic tests show how characteristic velocity structures, associated with shallow sources, may be partially responsible for the generation of the observed long-lasting ringing waveforms. When applying the inversion technique to Kilauea LP data set, inversions carried out for different crustal models led to very similar source geometries, indicating a subhorizontal cracks. On the other hand, the source time function and its duration are significantly different for different models. These results support the indication of a strong influence of crustal layering on the generation of the LP signal, while the assumption of homogeneous velocity model may bring to misleading results. ?? 2008 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2008 RAS.

Detailed Modeling of Physical Processes in Electron Sources for Accelerator Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chubenko, Oksana; Afanasev, Andrei

2017-01-01

At present, electron sources are essential in a wide range of applications - from common technical use to exploring the nature of matter. Depending on the application requirements, different methods and materials are used to generate electrons. State-of-the-art accelerator applications set a number of often-conflicting requirements for electron sources (e.g., quantum efficiency vs. polarization, current density vs. lifetime, etc). Development of advanced electron sources includes modeling and design of cathodes, material growth, fabrication of cathodes, and cathode testing. The detailed simulation and modeling of physical processes is required in order to shed light on the exact mechanisms of electron emission and to develop new-generation electron sources with optimized efficiency. The purpose of the present work is to study physical processes in advanced electron sources and develop scientific tools, which could be used to predict electron emission from novel nano-structured materials. In particular, the area of interest includes bulk/superlattice gallium arsenide (bulk/SL GaAs) photo-emitters and nitrogen-incorporated ultrananocrystalline diamond ((N)UNCD) photo/field-emitters. Work supported by The George Washington University and Euclid TechLabs LLC.

Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Pressey, Robert L; Ban, Natalie C; Brodie, Jon

2015-01-01

Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.

Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection

PubMed Central

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Pressey, Robert L.; Ban, Natalie C.; Brodie, Jon

2015-01-01

Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management. PMID:26714166

Estimation of the recharge area contributing water to a pumped well in a glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, Daniel J.

1989-01-01

The highly permeable, unconfined, glacial-drift aquifers that occupy most New England river valleys constitute the principal source of drinking water for many of the communities that obtain part or all of their public water supply from ground water. Recent events have shown that these aquifers are highly susceptible to contamination that results from a number of sources, such as seepage from wastewater lagoons, leaking petroleum-product storage tanks, and road salting. To protect the quality of water pumped from supply wells in these aquifers, it is necessary to ensure that potentially harmful contaminants do not enter the ground in the area that contributes water to the well. A high degree of protection can be achieved through the application of appropriate land-use controls within the contributing area. However, the contributing areas for most supply wells are not known. This report describes the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing areas to public supply wells and evaluates several methods that may be used to delineate contributing areas of wells in glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers. Analytical, two-dimensional numerical, and three-dimensional numerical models were used to delineate contributing areas. These methods of analysis were compared by applying them to a hypothetical aquifer having the dimensions and geometry of a typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer. In the model analyses, factors that control the size and shape of a contributing area were varied over ranges of values common to glacial-drift aquifers in New England. The controlling factors include the rate of well discharge, rate of recharge to the aquifer from precipitation and from adjacent till and bedrock uplands, distance of a pumping well from a stream or other potential source of induced recharge, degree of hydraulic connection of the aquifer with a stream, horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity, and degree of well penetration. Analytical methods proved easiest to apply but gave results that are considered to be less accurate than those obtainable by means of numerical-model analysis. Numerical models have the capability to more closely reflect the variable geohydrologic conditions typical of glacial-drift valley aquifers. For average conditions in the hypothetical aquifer, the analytical method predicts a contributing area limited to the well side of the river because a constant-head boundary simulated by image wells is used in the analytical model. For typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers, this simulation is unrealistic because drawdowns, caused by a pumping well, and the contributing area of the well can extend beneath and beyond a river or stream. A wide range of hydrologic conditions was simulated by using the two-dimensional numerical model. The resulting contributing area for a well pumped at 1.0 million gallons per day--a common pumping rate--ranged from about 0.9 to 1.8 square miles. Model analyses also show that the contributing area of pumped wells may be expected to extend to the opposite side of the river and to include significant areas of till uplands adjacent to the aquifer on both sides of the valley. Simulations done with the three-dimensional model allow a full three-dimensional delineation of the zone of contribution for a pumped well. For the relatively thin (100 feet or less) unconfined aquifers considered in this analysis, the three-dimensional model showed that the zone of contribution extended throughout the entire saturated thickness of aquifer; therefore, the two-dimensional simulations were considered adequate for delineating contributing areas in this particular hydrologic setting. For thicker aquifers, especially those having partially penetrating wells, three-dimensional models are preferable. Values for several of the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing recharge areas cannot be det

An emission processing system for air quality modelling in the Mexico City metropolitan area: Evaluation and comparison of the MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions.

PubMed

Guevara, M; Tena, C; Soret, A; Serradell, K; Guzmán, D; Retama, A; Camacho, P; Jaimes-Palomera, M; Mediavilla, A

2017-04-15

This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km 2 ) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO 2 , O 3 , VOC and PM 2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NO x and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The system's performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O 3 peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for dispersion from area sources in convective turbulence. [for air pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, G.; Panofsky, H. A.; Zeman, O.

1977-01-01

Four independent estimates of the vertical distribution of the eddy coefficient for dispersion of a passive contaminant from an extensive area source in a convective layer have been presented. The estimates were based on the following methods: (1) a second-order closure prediction, (2) field data of pollutant concentrations over Los Angeles, (3) lab measurements of particle dispersion, and (4) assumption of equality between momentum and mass transfer coefficients in the free convective limit. It is suggested that K-values estimated both from second-order closure theory and from Los Angeles measurements are systematically underestimated.

DynAOI: a tool for matching eye-movement data with dynamic areas of interest in animations and movies.

PubMed

Papenmeier, Frank; Huff, Markus

2010-02-01

Analyzing gaze behavior with dynamic stimulus material is of growing importance in experimental psychology; however, there is still a lack of efficient analysis tools that are able to handle dynamically changing areas of interest. In this article, we present DynAOI, an open-source tool that allows for the definition of dynamic areas of interest. It works automatically with animations that are based on virtual three-dimensional models. When one is working with videos of real-world scenes, a three-dimensional model of the relevant content needs to be created first. The recorded eye-movement data are matched with the static and dynamic objects in the model underlying the video content, thus creating static and dynamic areas of interest. A validation study asking participants to track particular objects demonstrated that DynAOI is an efficient tool for handling dynamic areas of interest.

Fine particle receptor modeling in the atmosphere of Mexico City.

PubMed

Vega, Elizabeth; Lowenthal, Douglas; Ruiz, Hugo; Reyes, Elizabeth; Watson, John G; Chow, Judith C; Viana, Mar; Querol, Xavier; Alastuey, Andrés

2009-12-01

Source apportionment analyses were carried out by means of receptor modeling techniques to determine the contribution of major fine particulate matter (PM2.5) sources found at six sites in Mexico City. Thirty-six source profiles were determined within Mexico City to establish the fingerprints of particulate matter sources. Additionally, the profiles under the same source category were averaged using cluster analysis and the fingerprints of 10 sources were included. Before application of the chemical mass balance (CMB), several tests were carried out to determine the best combination of source profiles and species used for the fitting. CMB results showed significant spatial variations in source contributions among the six sites that are influenced by local soil types and land use. On average, 24-hr PM2.5 concentrations were dominated by mobile source emissions (45%), followed by secondary inorganic aerosols (16%) and geological material (17%). Industrial emissions representing oil combustion and incineration contributed less than 5%, and their contribution was higher at the industrial areas of Tlalnepantla (11%) and Xalostoc (8%). Other sources such as cooking, biomass burning, and oil fuel combustion were identified at lower levels. A second receptor model (principal component analysis, [PCA]) was subsequently applied to three of the monitoring sites for comparison purposes. Although differences were obtained between source contributions, results evidence the advantages of the combined use of different receptor modeling techniques for source apportionment, given the complementary nature of their results. Further research is needed in this direction to reach a better agreement between the estimated source contributions to the particulate matter mass.

Investigating the effects of point source and nonpoint source pollution on the water quality of the East River (Dongjiang) in South China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

Understanding the physical processes of point source (PS) and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is critical to evaluate river water quality and identify major pollutant sources in a watershed. In this study, we used the physically-based hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, to investigate the influence of PS and NPS pollution on the water quality of the East River (Dongjiang in Chinese) in southern China. Our results indicate that NPS pollution was the dominant contribution (>94%) to nutrient loads except for mineral phosphorus (50%). A comprehensive Water Quality Index (WQI) computed using eight key water quality variables demonstrates that water quality is better upstream than downstream despite the higher level of ammonium nitrogen found in upstream waters. Also, the temporal (seasonal) and spatial distributions of nutrient loads clearly indicate the critical time period (from late dry season to early wet season) and pollution source areas within the basin (middle and downstream agricultural lands), which resource managers can use to accomplish substantial reduction of NPS pollutant loadings. Overall, this study helps our understanding of the relationship between human activities and pollutant loads and further contributes to decision support for local watershed managers to protect water quality in this region. In particular, the methods presented such as integrating WQI with watershed modeling and identifying the critical time period and pollutions source areas can be valuable for other researchers worldwide.

Modeling a Spatio-Temporal Individual Travel Behavior Using Geotagged Social Network Data: a Case Study of Greater Cincinnati

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeedimoghaddam, M.; Kim, C.

2017-10-01

Understanding individual travel behavior is vital in travel demand management as well as in urban and transportation planning. New data sources including mobile phone data and location-based social media (LBSM) data allow us to understand mobility behavior on an unprecedented level of details. Recent studies of trip purpose prediction tend to use machine learning (ML) methods, since they generally produce high levels of predictive accuracy. Few studies used LSBM as a large data source to extend its potential in predicting individual travel destination using ML techniques. In the presented research, we created a spatio-temporal probabilistic model based on an ensemble ML framework named "Random Forests" utilizing the travel extracted from geotagged Tweets in 419 census tracts of Greater Cincinnati area for predicting the tract ID of an individual's travel destination at any time using the information of its origin. We evaluated the model accuracy using the travels extracted from the Tweets themselves as well as the travels from household travel survey. The Tweets and survey based travels that start from same tract in the south western parts of the study area is more likely to select same destination compare to the other parts. Also, both Tweets and survey based travels were affected by the attraction points in the downtown of Cincinnati and the tracts in the north eastern part of the area. Finally, both evaluations show that the model predictions are acceptable, but it cannot predict destination using inputs from other data sources as precise as the Tweets based data.

Optimizing Irrigation Water Allocation under Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in an Arid River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Tang, D.; Gao, H.; Ding, Y.

2015-12-01

Population growth and climate change add additional pressures affecting water resources management strategies for meeting demands from different economic sectors. It is especially challenging in arid regions where fresh water is limited. For instance, in the Tailanhe River Basin (Xinjiang, China), a compromise must be made between water suppliers and users during drought years. This study presents a multi-objective irrigation water allocation model to cope with water scarcity in arid river basins. To deal with the uncertainties from multiple sources in the water allocation system (e.g., variations of available water amount, crop yield, crop prices, and water price), the model employs a interval linear programming approach. The multi-objective optimization model developed from this study is characterized by integrating eco-system service theory into water-saving measures. For evaluation purposes, the model is used to construct an optimal allocation system for irrigation areas fed by the Tailan River (Xinjiang Province, China). The objective functions to be optimized are formulated based on these irrigation areas' economic, social, and ecological benefits. The optimal irrigation water allocation plans are made under different hydroclimate conditions (wet year, normal year, and dry year), with multiple sources of uncertainty represented. The modeling tool and results are valuable for advising decision making by the local water authority—and the agricultural community—especially on measures for coping with water scarcity (by incorporating uncertain factors associated with crop production planning).

Estimation of the emission factors of PAHs by traffic with the model of atmospheric dispersion and deposition from heavy traffic road.

PubMed

Ozaki, N; Tokumitsu, H; Kojima, K; Kindaichi, T

2007-01-01

In order to consider the total atmospheric loadings of the PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) from traffic activities, the emission factors of PAHs were estimated and from the obtained emission factors and vehicle transportation statistics, total atmospheric loadings were integrated and the loadings into the water body were estimated on a regional scale. The atmospheric concentration of PAHs was measured at the roadside of a road with heavy traffic in the Hiroshima area in Japan. The samplings were conducted in summer and winter. Atmospheric particulate matters (fine particle, 0.6-7 microm; coarse particle, over 7 microm) and their PAH concentration were measured. Also, four major emission sources (gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions, tire and asphalt debris) were assumed for vehicle transportation activities, the chemical mass balance method was applied and the source partitioning at the roadside was estimated. Furthermore, the dispersion of atmospheric particles from the vehicles was modelled and the emission factors of the sources were determined by the comparison to the chemical mass balance results. Based on emission factors derived from the modelling, an atmospheric dispersion model of nationwide scale (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology - Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk assessment) was applied, and the atmospheric concentration and loading to the ground were calculated for the Hiroshima Bay watershed area.

Spatial-temporal variability in groundwater abstraction across Uganda: Implications to sustainable water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanteza, J.; Thomas, B. F.; Mukwaya, P. I.

2017-12-01

The general lack of knowledge about the current rates of water abstraction/use is a challenge to sustainable water resources management in many countries, including Uganda. Estimates of water abstraction/use rates over Uganda, currently available from the FAO are not disaggregated according to source, making it difficult to understand how much is taken out of individual water stores, limiting effective management. Modelling efforts have disaggregated water use rates according to source (i.e. groundwater and surface water). However, over Sub-Saharan Africa countries, these model use estimates are highly uncertain given the scale limitations in applying water use (i.e. point versus regional), thus influencing model calibration/validation. In this study, we utilize data from the water supply atlas project over Uganda to estimate current rates of groundwater abstraction across the country based on location, well type and other relevant information. GIS techniques are employed to demarcate areas served by each water source. These areas are combined with past population distributions and average daily water needed per person to estimate water abstraction/use through time. The results indicate an increase in groundwater use, and isolate regions prone to groundwater depletion where improved management is required to sustainably management groundwater use.

Brainstem origins for cortical 'what' and 'where' pathways in the auditory system.

PubMed

Kraus, Nina; Nicol, Trent

2005-04-01

We have developed a data-driven conceptual framework that links two areas of science: the source-filter model of acoustics and cortical sensory processing streams. The source-filter model describes the mechanics behind speech production: the identity of the speaker is carried largely in the vocal cord source and the message is shaped by the ever-changing filters of the vocal tract. Sensory processing streams, popularly called 'what' and 'where' pathways, are well established in the visual system as a neural scheme for separately carrying different facets of visual objects, namely their identity and their position/motion, to the cortex. A similar functional organization has been postulated in the auditory system. Both speaker identity and the spoken message, which are simultaneously conveyed in the acoustic structure of speech, can be disentangled into discrete brainstem response components. We argue that these two response classes are early manifestations of auditory 'what' and 'where' streams in the cortex. This brainstem link forges a new understanding of the relationship between the acoustics of speech and cortical processing streams, unites two hitherto separate areas in science, and provides a model for future investigations of auditory function.

Coupled Source-to-Sink and Geodynamic Modeling of Extensional Basins: A Case Study of the Gulf of Corinth, Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smithells, R. A.

2015-12-01

Many studies investigate rift evolution with geodynamic models, giving insight into the architecture and morphology of extensional basins. Recent advances in modeling allow better temporal and spatial resolution in surface processes when coupled with geodynamic processes, allowing modeling the interactions between sediment erosion and deposition with rift development. Here we use a combination of dynamic forward modeling and landscape evolution models to determine feedback and interaction of sediment erosion and deposition with rift development and fault localization. The Gulf of Corinth is an ideal basin to study the effect of surface processes on rifting because it can be considered a closed system for sediment erosion and deposition. It is a young rift, not affected by subsequent overprinting and there is a large amount of data from offshore seismic surveys and onshore fieldwork to constrain its evolution. We reconstruct paleo topography of the catchment area by removing the effects of fault activity and sediment erosion. The reconstructed topography is used to model different scenarios for landscape evolution and the results determine the relative importance of regional and fault related uplift and subsidence on the drainage evolution in the Gulf of Corinth. The landscape models are also used to constrain source area and total amount of sediment eroded from the catchment area. The eroded onshore volume and the amount of sediment deposited offshore are compared in order to reconstruct the source-to-sink balance for the Gulf of Corinth. Our results constrain the evolution of the catchment area and timings of drainage reversals that occurred in the fluvial systems of the Gulf of Corinth. Coupled forward tectonic-surface process modeling is used to investigate feedback between rift formation and the surface processes and to determine its role in developing asymmetry and fault migration in an extensional setting. In this study we investigate the effect of a mature sediment routing system on rift development. Our models show that migrating fault activity may be triggered by migration of sediment deposition filling the accommodation space provided by the associated half grabens. The asymmetric development of the rift can be explained by the preferred erosion and deposition of the southern flank of the Gulf of Corinth.

Principle component analysis to separate deformation signals from multiple sources during a 2015 intrusive sequence at Kīlauea Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johanson, I. A.; Miklius, A.; Poland, M. P.

2016-12-01

A sequence of magmatic events in April-May 2015 at Kīlauea Volcano produced a complex deformation pattern that can be described by multiple deforming sources, active simultaneously. The 2015 intrusive sequence began with inflation in the volcano's summit caldera near Halema`uma`u (HMM) Crater, which continued over a few weeks, followed by rapid deflation of the HMM source and inflation of a source in the south caldera region during the next few days. In Kīlauea Volcano's summit area, multiple deformation centers are active at varying times, and all contribute to the overall pattern observed with GPS, tiltmeters, and InSAR. Isolating the contribution of different signals related to each source is a challenge and complicates the determination of optimal source geometry for the underlying magma bodies. We used principle component analysis of continuous GPS time series from the 2015 intrusion sequence to determine three basis vectors which together account for 83% of the variance in the data set. The three basis vectors are non-orthogonal and not strictly the principle components of the data set. In addition to separating deformation sources in the continuous GPS data, the basis vectors provide a means to scale the contribution of each source in a given interferogram. This provides an additional constraint in a joint model of GPS and InSAR data (COSMO-SkyMed and Sentinel-1A) to determine source geometry. The first basis vector corresponds with inflation in the south caldera region, an area long recognized as the location of a long-term storage reservoir. The second vector represents deformation of the HMM source, which is in the same location as a previously modeled shallow reservoir, however InSAR data suggest a more complicated source. Preliminary modeling of the deformation attributed to the third basis vector shows that it is consistent with inflation of a steeply dipping ellipsoid centered below Keanakāko`i crater, southeast of HMM. Keanakāko`i crater is the locus of a known, intermittently active deformation source, which was not previously recognized to have been active during the 2015 event.

ESTIMATING TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF A SEMI-VOLATILE COMPOUND WITH A REGIONAL PHOTOCHEMICAL MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

To simulate the fate of compounds that are considered semi-volatile and toxic, we have modified a model for regional particulate matter. Our changes introduce a semi-volatile compound into the atmosphere as gaseous emissions from an area source. Once emitted, the gas can transf...

A Near-Road Modeling System for Community-Scale Assessments of Traffic-Related AirPollution in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Line Source (C-LINE) modeling system estimates emissions and dispersion of toxic air pollutants for roadways within the continental United States. It accesses publicly available traffic and meteorological datasets, and is optimized for use on community-sized areas (...

ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT: STORMWATER SOURCE AREA TREATMENT DEVICE - VORTECHNICS INC., VORTECHS® SYSTEM, MODEL 1000

EPA Science Inventory

Verification testing of the Vortechnics, Inc. Vortechs® System, Model 1000 was conducted on a 0.25 acre portion of an elevated highway near downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Vortechs is designed to remove settable and floatable pollutants from stormwater runoff. The Vortechs® ...

Modeling micropollutant fate at the catchment scale: from science to practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seuntjens, P.; Desmet, N.; Holvoet, K.; van Griensven, A.; van Hoey, S.; Tang, X. Y.; Nopens, I.

2009-04-01

Micropollutants, such as pesticides, personal care products, veterinary and human pharmaceuticals, pose a possible threat to human and ecological health. Humans and ecosystems may be exposed to these chemicals via the water system. Catchment models can be used to optimise management in view of risk reduction of the chemicals. Along the trajectory of science to practice a number of catchment models are available that simulate the fate and transport of micropollutants. They range from physically-based fully-coupled soil, groundwater, and surface water models, over empirical management models, to purely statistical database-driven models. For assessing effects on ecosystems, models need to be able to predict the observed highly dynamic behaviour of pesticide concentrations in the surface water, since adverse effects will be determined by the number, intensity and frequency of ecological threshold exceedances. For assessing effects on humans, models need to predict the dilution between areas where the pesticide is released and the location of the drinking water intake, sometimes tens or hundreds of kilometres further downstream. We adapted management models to simulate dynamic pesticide behaviour and fate at the catchment scale. The models were also used to illustrate the effects of specific management options on risk reduction and to derive the dominant sources of pollutants in a catchment area. The results show that the concentrations of pesticides in river systems are attributed to (1) fast flow over and in soils or pavements, and to (2) point sources. Therefore, future models for improved estimation of chemical fate at the catchment scale need a combination of stochastic source characterisation, higher spatial resolution and reduced complexity of the mathematical description of fast flow processes. This will be illustrated by recent developments in model simplification coupled to increased spatial detail.

Multi-Source Generation Mechanisms for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Flood Discharge and Energy Dissipation from a High Dam with a Ski-Jump Type Spillway

PubMed Central

Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Ma, Bin; Liu, Dongming

2017-01-01

As excess water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency noise (air pulsation lower than 10 Hz, LFN) is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental hazards such as the vibration of windows and doors and the discomfort of local residents. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by flood discharge and energy dissipation from a high dam with a ski-jump type spillway, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are carried out. The discharge flow field is simulated and analyzed using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model. The acoustic response characteristics of the air cavity, which is formed between the discharge nappe and dam body, are analyzed using an acoustic numerical model. The multi-sources generation mechanisms are first proposed basing on the prototype observation results, vortex sound model, turbulent flow model and acoustic numerical model. Two kinds of sources of LFN are studied. One comes from the energy dissipation of submerged jets in the plunge pool, the other comes from nappe-cavity coupled vibration. The results of the analyses reveal that the submerged jets in the plunge pool only contribute to an on-site LFN energy of 0–1.0 Hz, and the strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets and wall jet development areas are the main acoustic source regions of LFN in the plunge pool. In addition, the nappe-cavity coupled vibration, which is induced when the discharge nappe vibrates with close frequency to the model frequency of the cavity, can induce on-site LFN energy with wider frequency spectrum energy within 0–4.0 Hz. By contrast, the contribution degrees to LFN energy from two acoustic sources are almost same, while the contribution degree from nappe-cavity coupled vibration is slightly higher. PMID:29189750

Itzï (version 17.1): an open-source, distributed GIS model for dynamic flood simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillaume Courty, Laurent; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Bates, Paul David

2017-05-01

Worldwide, floods are acknowledged as one of the most destructive hazards. In human-dominated environments, their negative impacts are ascribed not only to the increase in frequency and intensity of floods but also to a strong feedback between the hydrological cycle and anthropogenic development. In order to advance a more comprehensive understanding of this complex interaction, this paper presents the development of a new open-source tool named Itzï that enables the 2-D numerical modelling of rainfall-runoff processes and surface flows integrated with the open-source geographic information system (GIS) software known as GRASS. Therefore, it takes advantage of the ability given by GIS environments to handle datasets with variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the presented numerical tool can handle datasets from different sources with varied spatial resolutions, facilitating the preparation and management of input and forcing data. This ability reduces the preprocessing time usually required by other models. Itzï uses a simplified form of the shallow water equations, the damped partial inertia equation, for the resolution of surface flows, and the Green-Ampt model for the infiltration. The source code is now publicly available online, along with complete documentation. The numerical model is verified against three different tests cases: firstly, a comparison with an analytic solution of the shallow water equations is introduced; secondly, a hypothetical flooding event in an urban area is implemented, where results are compared to those from an established model using a similar approach; and lastly, the reproduction of a real inundation event that occurred in the city of Kingston upon Hull, UK, in June 2007, is presented. The numerical approach proved its ability at reproducing the analytic and synthetic test cases. Moreover, simulation results of the real flood event showed its suitability at identifying areas affected by flooding, which were verified against those recorded after the event by local authorities.

Hydrological modelling of snail dispersal patterns in Msambweni, Kenya and potential resurgence of Schistosoma haematobium transmission.

PubMed

Clennon, J A; King, C H; Muchiri, E M; Kitron, U

2007-05-01

Urinary schistosomiasis is an important source of human morbidity in Msambweni, Kenya, where the intermediate host snail, Bulinus nasutus is found in ponds and water pools. In the past, aquatic habitats in the area have been studied separately; however, recent collections of B. nasutus snails and shells indicated that many of these ponds are in fact connected during and following sufficient rains. Satellite imagery and a geographical information system (GIS) were used to survey the main water courses and potential drainage routes, to locate potential source populations of snails and to determine probable snail dispersal routes. The 2 water bodies implicated as being the most important Schistosoma haematobium transmission foci in the area were found to differ in their degree of connectivity to other B. nasutus source habitats. One pond becomes connected even after normal rains, while the other pond requires prolonged rains or flooding to become connected with source habitats. Consequently, the transmission foci differ in their susceptibility to snail population control measures. Spatially explicit dispersal models that consider the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity between aquatic habitats will contribute to improved snail surveillance and more focused control for urinary schistosomiasis at a local level.

MOVES-Matrix and distributed computing for microscale line source dispersion analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Haobing; Xu, Xiaodan; Rodgers, Michael O; Xu, Yanzhi Ann; Guensler, Randall L

2017-07-01

MOVES and AERMOD are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended models for use in project-level transportation conformity and hot-spot analysis. However, the structure and algorithms involved in running MOVES make analyses cumbersome and time-consuming. Likewise, the modeling setup process, including extensive data requirements and required input formats, in AERMOD lead to a high potential for analysis error in dispersion modeling. This study presents a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix, a high-performance emission modeling tool, with the microscale dispersion models CALINE4 and AERMOD. MOVES-Matrix was prepared by iteratively running MOVES across all possible iterations of vehicle source-type, fuel, operating conditions, and environmental parameters to create a huge multi-dimensional emission rate lookup matrix. AERMOD and CALINE4 are connected with MOVES-Matrix in a distributed computing cluster using a series of Python scripts. This streamlined system built on MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as using MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than using the MOVES graphical user interface. Because AERMOD requires detailed meteorological input, which is difficult to obtain, this study also recommends using CALINE4 as a screening tool for identifying the potential area that may exceed air quality standards before using AERMOD (and identifying areas that are exceedingly unlikely to exceed air quality standards). CALINE4 worst case method yields consistently higher concentration results than AERMOD for all comparisons in this paper, as expected given the nature of the meteorological data employed. The paper demonstrates a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix with the CALINE4 and AERMOD. This streamlined system generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as traditional way to use MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, which are regulatory models approved by the U.S. EPA for conformity analysis, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than implementing the MOVES model. We highlighted the potentially significant benefit of using CALINE4 as screening tool for identifying potential area that may exceeds air quality standards before using AERMOD, which requires much more meteorology input than CALINE4.

Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

2017-02-01

Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

Agricultural areas in potentially contaminated sites: characterization, risk, management.

PubMed

Vanni, Fabiana; Scaini, Federica; Beccaloni, Eleonora

2016-01-01

In Italy, the current legislation for contaminants in soils provides two land uses: residential/public or private gardens and commercial/industrial; there are not specific reference values for agricultural soils, even if a special decree has been developed and is currently going through the legislative approval process. The topic of agricultural areas is relevant, also in consideration of their presence near potentially contaminated sites. Aim and results. In this paper, contamination sources and transport modes of contaminants from sources to the target in agricultural areas are examined and a suitable "conceptual model" to define appropriate characterization methods and risk assessment procedures is proposed. These procedures have already been used by the National Institute of Health in various Italian areas characterized by different agricultural settings. Finally, specific remediation techniques are suggested to preserve soil resources and, if possible, its particular land use.

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Results Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Conclusions Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape. PMID:21835025

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling.

PubMed

Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Crabtree, Robert; Huang, Shengli; Gross, Peggy; Genovese, Vanessa

2011-08-11

A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape.

Investigations of groundwater system and simulation of regional groundwater flow for North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Goode, Daniel J.

2013-01-01

Groundwater in the vicinity of several industrial facilities in Upper Gwynedd Township and vicinity, Montgomery County, in southeast Pennsylvania has been shown to be contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the most common of which is the solvent trichloroethylene (TCE). The 2-square-mile area was placed on the National Priorities List as the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in 1989. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted geophysical logging, aquifer testing, and water-level monitoring, and measured streamflows in and near North Penn Area 7 from fall 2000 through fall 2006 in a technical assistance study for the USEPA to develop an understanding of the hydrogeologic framework in the area as part of the USEPA Remedial Investigation. In addition, the USGS developed a groundwater-flow computer model based on the hydrogeologic framework to simulate regional groundwater flow and to estimate directions of groundwater flow and pathways of groundwater contaminants. The study area is underlain by Triassic- and Jurassic-age sandstones and shales of the Lockatong Formation and Brunswick Group in the Mesozoic Newark Basin. Regionally, these rocks strike northeast and dip to the northwest. The sequence of rocks form a fractured-sedimentary-rock aquifer that acts as a set of confined to partially confined layers of differing permeabilities. Depth to competent bedrock typically is less than 20 ft below land surface. The aquifer layers are recharged locally by precipitation and discharge locally to streams. The general configuration of the potentiometric surface in the aquifer is similar to topography, except in areas affected by pumping. The headwaters of Wissahickon Creek are nearby, and the stream flows southwest, parallel to strike, to bisect North Penn Area 7. Groundwater is pumped in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 for industrial use, public supply, and residential supply. Results of field investigations by USGS at the site and results from other studies support, and are consistent with, a conceptual model of a layered leaky aquifer where the dip of the beds has a strong control on hydraulic connections in the groundwater system. Connections within and (or) parallel to bedding tend to be greater than across bedding. Transmissivities of aquifer intervals isolated by packers ranged over three orders of magnitude [from about 2.8 to 2,290 square feet per day (ft2/d) or 0.26 to 213 square meters per day (m2/d)], did not appear to differ much by mapped geologic unit, but showed some relation to depth being relatively smaller in the shallowest and deepest intervals (0 to 50 ft and more than 250 ft below land surface, respectively) compared to the intermediate depth intervals (50 to 250 ft below land surface) tested. Transmissivities estimated from multiple-observation well aquifer tests ranged from about 700 to 2,300 ft2/d (65 to 214 m2/d). Results of chemical analyses of water from isolated intervals or monitoring wells open to short sections of the aquifer show vertical differences in concentrations; chloride and silica concentrations generally were greater in shallow intervals than in deeper intervals. Chloride concentrations greater than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), combined with distinctive chloride/bromide ratios, indicate a different source of chloride in the western part of North Penn Area 7 than elsewhere in the site. Groundwater flow at a regional scale under steady-state conditions was simulated by use of a numerical model (MODFLOW-2000) for North Penn Area 7 with different layers representing saprolite/highly weathered rock near the surface and unweathered competent bedrock. The sedimentary formations that underlie the study area were modeled using dipping model layers for intermediate and deep zones of unweathered, fractured rock. Horizontal cell model size was 100 meters (m) by 100 meters (328 ft by 328 ft), and model layer thickness ranged from 6 m (19.7 ft) representing shallow weathered rock and saprolite up to 200 m (656 ft) representing deeper dipping bedrock. The model did not include detailed structure to account for local-scale differences in hydraulic properties, with the result that local-scale groundwater flow may not be well simulated. Additional detailed multi-well aquifer tests would be needed to establish the extent of interconnection between intervals at the local scale to address remediation of contamination at each source area. This regional groundwater-flow model was calibrated against measured groundwater levels (1996, 2000, and 2005) and base flow estimated from selected streamflow measurements by use of nonlinear-regression parameter-estimation algorithms to determine hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of hydraulic conductivity, streambed hydraulic conductivity, and recharge during calibration periods. Results of the simulation using the calibrated regional model indicate that the aquifer appears to be anisotropic where hydraulic conductivity is greatest parallel to the orientation of bedding of the formations underlying the area and least in the cross-bed direction. The maximum hydraulic conductivity is aligned with the average regional strike of the formations, which is “subhorizontal” in the model because the altitudes of the beds and model cells vary in the strike, as well as dip, direction. Estimated subhorizontal hydraulic conductivities (in strike direction parallel to dipping beds) range from 0.001 to 1.67 meters per day (0.0032 to 5.5 feet per day). The ratio of minimum (dip direction) to maximum (strike direction) subhorizontal hydraulic conductivity ranges from 1/3.1 to 1/8.6, and the ratio of vertical to horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranges from 1/1 to 1/478. However, limited available field data precluded rigorous calibration of vertical anisotropy in the model. Estimated recharge rates corresponding to calibration periods in 1996, 2000, and 2005 are 150, 109, and 124 millimeters per year (5.9, 4.3, and 4.9 inches per year), respectively. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used to simulate groundwater flow under steady-state conditions during periods of relatively high withdrawals (pumpage) (1990) and relatively low withdrawals (2000 and 2005). Groundwater-flow paths originating from recharge areas near known areas of soil contamination (sources) were simulated. Pumped industrial and production wells captured more groundwater from several of these sources during 1990 than after 1990 when pumping declined or ceased and greater amounts of contaminated groundwater moved away from North Penn Area 7 Superfund site to surrounding areas. Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-flow paths from contaminant sources and contributing areas, resulting from uncertainty in estimated hydraulic properties of the model, was illustrated through Monte Carlo simulations. The effect of uncertainty in the vertical anisotropy was not included in the Monte Carlo simulations. Contributing areas indicating the general configuration of groundwater flow towards production well MG-202 (L-22) in the study area also were simulated for the different time periods; as simulated, the flow paths do not pass through any identified contaminant source in North Penn Area 7. However, contributing areas to wells, such as MG-202, located near many pumped wells are particularly complex and, in some cases, include areas that contribute flow to streams that subsequently recharge the aquifer through stream loss. In these cases, water-quality constituents, including contaminants that are present in surface water may be drawn into the aquifer to nearby pumped wells. Results of a simulated shutdown of well MG-202 under steady-state 2005 conditions showed that the area contributing recharge for nearby production well MG-76 (L-17), when MG-202 is not pumping, shifts downstream and is similar to the area contributing recharge for MG-202 when both wells are pumping. Concentrations of constituents in groundwater samples collected in fall 2005 or spring 2006 were compared to simulated groundwater-flow paths for the year 2005 to provide a qualitative assessment of model results. The observed spatial distribution of selected constituents, including TCE, CFC-11, and CFC-113 in groundwater in 2005 and the chloride/bromide mass ratios in 2006, generally were consistent with the model results of the simulated 2005 groundwater-flow paths at North Penn Area 7, indicating the presence of several separate sources of contaminants within North Penn Area 7.

Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chouet, B.

1988-01-01

A dynamic source model is presented, in which a 3-D crack containing a viscous compressible fluid is excited into resonance by an impulsive pressure transient applied over a small area DELTA S of the crack surface. The crack excitation depends critically on two dimensionless parameters called the crack stiffness and viscous damping loss. According to the model, the long-period event and harmonic tremor share the same source but differ in the boundary conditions for fluid flow and in the triggering mechanism setting up the resonance of the source, the former being viewed as the impulse response of the tremor generating system and the later representing the excitation due to more complex forcing functions.-from Author

Specific ultra-violet absorbance as an indicator measurement of merucry sources in an Adirondack River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Aiken, George R.; Bradley, Paul M.; Journey, Celeste A.; Schelker, Jakob

2013-01-01

The Adirondack region of New York has been identified as a hot spot where high methylmercury concentrations are found in surface waters and biota, yet mercury (Hg) concentrations vary widely in this region. We collected stream and groundwater samples for Hg and organic carbon analyses across the upper Hudson River, a 493 km2 basin in the central Adirondacks to evaluate and model the sources of variation in filtered total Hg (FTHg) concentrations. Variability in FTHg concentrations during the growing seasons (May-Oct) of 2007-2009 in Fishing Brook, a 66-km2 sub-basin, was better explained by specific ultra-violet absorbance at 254 nm (SUVA254), a measure of organic carbon aromaticity, than by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, a commonly used Hg indicator. SUVA254 was a stronger predictor of FTHg concentrations during the growing season than during the dormant season. Multiple linear regression models that included SUVA254 values and DOC concentrations could explain 75 % of the variation in FTHg concentrations on an annual basis and 84 % during the growing season. A multiple linear regression landscape modeling approach applied to 27 synoptic sites across the upper Hudson basin found that higher SUVA254 values are associated with gentler slopes, and greater riparian area, and lower SUVA254 values are associated with an increasing influence of open water. We hypothesize that the strong Hg?SUVA254 relation in this basin reflects distinct patterns of FTHg and SUVA254 that are characteristic of source areas that control the mobilization of Hg to surface waters, and that the seasonal influence of these source areas varies in this heterogeneous basin landscape.

BA3b and BA1 activate in a serial fashion after median nerve stimulation: direct evidence from combining source analysis of evoked fields and cytoarchitectonic probabilistic maps.

PubMed

Papadelis, Christos; Eickhoff, Simon B; Zilles, Karl; Ioannides, Andreas A

2011-01-01

This study combines source analysis imaging data for early somatosensory processing and the probabilistic cytoarchitectonic maps (PCMs). Human somatosensory evoked fields (SEFs) were recorded by stimulating left and right median nerves. Filtering the recorded responses in different frequency ranges identified the most responsive frequency band. The short-latency averaged SEFs were analyzed using a single equivalent current dipole (ECD) model and magnetic field tomography (MFT). The identified foci of activity were superimposed with PCMs. Two major components of opposite polarity were prominent around 21 and 31 ms. A weak component around 25 ms was also identified. For the most responsive frequency band (50-150 Hz) ECD and MFT revealed one focal source at the contralateral Brodmann area 3b (BA3b) at the peak of N20. The component ~25 ms was localised in Brodmann area 1 (BA1) in 50-150 Hz. By using ECD, focal generators around 28-30 ms located initially in BA3b and 2 ms later to BA1. MFT also revealed two focal sources - one in BA3b and one in BA1 for these latencies. Our results provide direct evidence that the earliest cortical response after median nerve stimulation is generated within the contralateral BA3b. BA1 activation few milliseconds later indicates a serial mode of somatosensory processing within cytoarchitectonic SI subdivisions. Analysis of non-invasive magnetoencephalography (MEG) data and the use of PCMs allow unambiguous and quantitative (probabilistic) interpretation of cytoarchitectonic identity of activated areas following median nerve stimulation, even with the simple ECD model, but only when the model fits the data extremely well. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-Esteem, Creativity, and Music: Implications and Directions for Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

VanderArk, Sherman

1989-01-01

This paper seeks to give potentially pertinent information and ideas for the development of a model and of hypotheses that are relevant in terms of combining the areas of self-concept and creativity. Selected sources from the areas of psychology, education, and music education are presented as the basis for ideas and thoughts for further research.…

76 FR 44374 - Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact for License Amendment to Source...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-25

... information to the NRC to demonstrate that the Building 1103A Area meets the criteria in Subpart E of 10 CFR... Licensee conducted site-specific dose modeling using input parameters specific to the Building 1103A area... AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of availability. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT...

A model to relate wind tunnel measurements to open field odorant emissions from liquid area sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucernoni, F.; Capelli, L.; Busini, V.; Sironi, S.

2017-05-01

Waste Water Treatment Plants are known to have significant emissions of several pollutants and odorants causing nuisance to the near-living population. One of the purposes of the present work is to study a suitable model to evaluate odour emissions from liquid passive area sources. First, the models describing volatilization under a forced convection regime inside a wind tunnel device, which is the sampling device that typically used for sampling on liquid area sources, were investigated. In order to relate the fluid dynamic conditions inside the hood to the open field and inside the hood a thorough study of the models capable of describing the volatilization phenomena of the odorous compounds from liquid pools was performed and several different models were evaluated for the open field emission. By means of experimental tests involving pure liquid acetone and pure liquid butanone, it was verified that the model more suitable to describe precisely the volatilization inside the sampling hood is the model for the emission from a single flat plate in forced convection and laminar regime, with a fluid dynamic boundary layer fully developed and a mass transfer boundary layer not fully developed. The proportionality coefficient for the model was re-evaluated in order to account for the specific characteristics of the adopted wind tunnel device, and then the model was related with the selected model for the open field thereby computing the wind speed at 10 m that would cause the same emission that is estimated from the wind tunnel measurement furthermore, the field of application of the proposed model was clearly defined for the considered models during the project, discussing the two different kinds of compounds commonly found in emissive liquid pools or liquid spills, i.e. gas phase controlled and liquid phase controlled compounds. Lastly, a discussion is presented comparing the presented approach for emission rates recalculation in the field, with other approaches possible, i.e. the ones relying on the recalculation of the wind speed at the emission level, instead of the wind speed that would cause in the open field the same emission that is measured with the hood.

Synchronising data sources and filling gaps by global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimentel, Rafael; Crochemore, Louise; Hasan, Abdulghani; Pineda, Luis; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

2017-04-01

The advances in remote sensing in the last decades combined with the creation of different open hydrological databases have generated a very large amount of useful information for global hydrological modelling. Working with this huge number of datasets to set up a global hydrological model can constitute challenges such as multiple data formats and big heterogeneity on spatial and temporal resolutions. Different initiatives have made effort to homogenize some of these data sources, i.e. GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), HYDROSHEDS (SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GLWD (Global Lake and Wetland Database) for runoff, watershed delineation and water bodies respectively. However, not all the related issues are covered or homogenously solved at the global scale and new information is continuously available to complete the current ones. This work presents synchronising efforts to make use of different global data sources needed to set up the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) at the global scale. These data sources included: topography for watershed delineation, gauging stations of river flow, and extention of lakes, flood plains and land cover classes. A new database with approximately 100 000 subbasins, with an average area of 1000 km2, was created. Subbasin delineation was done combining Global Width Database for Large River (GWD-LR), SRTM high-resolution elevation data and a number of forced points of interest (gauging station of river flow, lakes, reservoirs, urban areas, nuclear plants and areas with high risk of flooding). Regarding flow data, the locations of GRDC stations were checked or placed along the river network when necessary, and completed with available information from national water services in data-sparse regions. A screening of doublet stations and associated time series was necessary to efficiently combine the two types of data sources. A total number about 21 000 stations were considered as forced point. In the case of lakes, some updating relating with location and area, of GLWD was done using esa (European Space Agency) gridded water bodies dataset. Many of the original lakes were shifted in relation with topography and some of them change their extension since the creation of the database. Moreover, the location of the outlet of all these lakes was also calculated. A new definition of global floodplain areas was also included. The land covers provided by ESA and some elevation criteria were used to define elevation land classes (ELC) using for the definition of the properties of each one of the proposed subbasin. All these new features: a) the inclusion of river width in the delineation of the subbasin, going further in the consideration of river shape; b) the merging of several data bases of gauging stations of river flow into an extended global dataset; c) coherent location of the lakes, river networks and floodplains; and d) a new definition of hydrological response units also considering elevation of the subbasins, will contribute to a better implementation of global hydrological models. The first results of world-wide HYPE will be shown but the model will yet not be fully calibrated using multi-sources of observed data and information. The ambition is to receive a global scale model which can also be useful at local scales. Starting with the global picture and then going into the details.

Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo

2018-02-05

The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

Neotropical peatland methane emissions along a vegetation and biogeochemical gradient.

PubMed

Winton, R Scott; Flanagan, Neal; Richardson, Curtis J

2017-01-01

Tropical wetlands are thought to be the most important source of interannual variability in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations, yet sparse data prevents them from being incorporated into Earth system models. This problem is particularly pronounced in the neotropics where bottom-up models based on water table depth are incongruent with top-down inversion models suggesting unaccounted sinks or sources of CH4. The newly documented vast areas of peatlands in the Amazon basin may account for an important unrecognized CH4 source, but the hydrologic and biogeochemical controls of CH4 dynamics from these systems remain poorly understood. We studied three zones of a peatland in Madre de Dios, Peru, to test whether CH4 emissions and pore water concentrations varied with vegetation community, soil chemistry and proximity to groundwater sources. We found that the open-canopy herbaceous zone emitted roughly one-third as much CH4 as the Mauritia flexuosa palm-dominated areas (4.7 ± 0.9 and 14.0 ± 2.4 mg CH4 m-2 h-1, respectively). Emissions decreased with distance from groundwater discharge across the three sampling sites, and tracked changes in soil carbon chemistry, especially increased soil phenolics. Based on all available data, we calculate that neotropical peatlands contribute emissions of 43 ± 11.9 Tg CH4 y-1, however this estimate is subject to geographic bias and will need revision once additional studies are published.

Assessment of runoff and sediment yields using the AnnAGNPS model in a Three-Gorge watershed of China.

PubMed

Hua, Lizhong; He, Xiubin; Yuan, Yongping; Nan, Hongwei

2012-05-01

Soil erosion has been recognized as one of the major threats to our environment and water quality worldwide, especially in China. To mitigate nonpoint source water quality problems caused by soil erosion, best management practices (BMPs) and/or conservation programs have been adopted. Watershed models, such as the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollutant Loading model (AnnAGNPS), have been developed to aid in the evaluation of watershed response to watershed management practices. The model has been applied worldwide and proven to be a very effective tool in identifying the critical areas which had serious erosion, and in aiding in decision-making processes for adopting BMPs and/or conservation programs so that cost/benefit can be maximized and non-point source pollution control can be achieved in the most efficient way. The main goal of this study was to assess the characteristics of soil erosion, sediment and sediment delivery of a watershed so that effective conservation measures can be implemented. To achieve the overall objective of this study, all necessary data for the 4,184 km(2) Daning River watershed in the Three-Gorge region of the Yangtze River of China were assembled. The model was calibrated using observed monthly runoff from 1998 to 1999 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.94 and R(2) of 0.94) and validated using the observed monthly runoff from 2003 to 2005 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.93 and R(2) of 0.93). Additionally, the model was validated using annual average sediment of 2000-2002 (relative error of -0.34) and 2003-2004 (relative error of 0.18) at Wuxi station. Post validation simulation showed that approximately 48% of the watershed was under the soil loss tolerance released by the Ministry of Water Resources of China (500 t·km(-2)·y(-1)). However, 8% of the watershed had soil erosion of exceeding 5,000 t·km(-2)·y(-1). Sloping areas and low coverage areas are the main source of soil loss in the watershed.

Assessment of Runoff and Sediment Yields Using the AnnAGNPS Model in a Three-Gorge Watershed of China

PubMed Central

Hua, Lizhong; He, Xiubin; Yuan, Yongping; Nan, Hongwei

2012-01-01

Soil erosion has been recognized as one of the major threats to our environment and water quality worldwide, especially in China. To mitigate nonpoint source water quality problems caused by soil erosion, best management practices (BMPs) and/or conservation programs have been adopted. Watershed models, such as the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollutant Loading model (AnnAGNPS), have been developed to aid in the evaluation of watershed response to watershed management practices. The model has been applied worldwide and proven to be a very effective tool in identifying the critical areas which had serious erosion, and in aiding in decision-making processes for adopting BMPs and/or conservation programs so that cost/benefit can be maximized and non-point source pollution control can be achieved in the most efficient way. The main goal of this study was to assess the characteristics of soil erosion, sediment and sediment delivery of a watershed so that effective conservation measures can be implemented. To achieve the overall objective of this study, all necessary data for the 4,184 km2 Daning River watershed in the Three-Gorge region of the Yangtze River of China were assembled. The model was calibrated using observed monthly runoff from 1998 to 1999 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.94 and R2 of 0.94) and validated using the observed monthly runoff from 2003 to 2005 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.93 and R2 of 0.93). Additionally, the model was validated using annual average sediment of 2000–2002 (relative error of −0.34) and 2003–2004 (relative error of 0.18) at Wuxi station. Post validation simulation showed that approximately 48% of the watershed was under the soil loss tolerance released by the Ministry of Water Resources of China (500 t·km−2·y−1). However, 8% of the watershed had soil erosion of exceeding 5,000 t·km−2·y−1. Sloping areas and low coverage areas are the main source of soil loss in the watershed. PMID:22754480

Gas Hydrate Petroleum System Modeling in western Nankai Trough Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, M.; Aung, T. T.; Fujii, T.; Wada, N.; Komatsu, Y.

2017-12-01

Since 2003, we have been conducting Gas Hydrate (GH) petroleum system models covering the eastern Nankai Trough, Japan, and results of resource potential from regional model shows good match with the value depicted from seismic and log data. In this year, we have applied this method to explore GH potential in study area. In our study area, GH prospects have been identified with aid of bottom simulating reflector (BSR) and presence of high velocity anomalies above the BSR interpreted based on 3D migration seismic and high density velocity cubes. In order to understand the pathway of biogenic methane from source to GH prospects 1D-2D-3D GH petroleum system models are built and investigated. This study comprises lower Miocene to Pleistocene, deep to shallow marine sedimentary successions of Pliocene and Pleistocene layers overlain the basement. The BSR were interpreted in Pliocene and Pleistocene layers. Based on 6 interpreted sequence boundaries from 3D migration seismic and velocity data, construction of a depth 3D framework model is made and distributed by a conceptual submarine fan depositional facies model derived from seismic facies analysis and referring existing geological report. 1D models are created to analyze lithology sensitivity to temperature and vitrinite data from an exploratory well drilled in the vicinity of study area. The PSM parameters are applied in 2D and 3D modeling and simulation. Existing report of the explanatory well reveals that thermogenic origin are considered to exist. For this reason, simulation scenarios including source formations for both biogenic and thermogenic reaction models are also investigated. Simulation results reveal lower boundary of GH saturation zone at pseudo wells has been simulated with sensitivity of a few tens of meters in comparing with interpreted BSR. From sensitivity analysis, simulated temperature was controlled by different peak generation temperature models and geochemical parameters. Progressive folding and updipping layers including paleostructure can effectively assist biogenic gas migration to upward. Biogenic and Thermogenic mixing model shows that kitchen center only has a potential for generating thermogenic hydrocarbon. Our Prospect based on seismic interpretation is consistent with high GH saturation area based on 3D modeling results.

Source apportionment of PAHs and n-alkanes bound to PM1 collected near the Venice highway.

PubMed

Valotto, Gabrio; Rampazzo, Giancarlo; Gonella, Francesco; Formenton, Gianni; Ficotto, Silvia; Giraldo, Giorgia

2017-04-01

n-Alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) bound to atmospheric particulate matter (PM 1 ) were investigated in a traffic site located in an urban area of Venice Province (Eastern Po Valley, Italy) during the cold season. Considering the critical situation affecting the Veneto Region concerning the atmospheric pollution and the general lack of information on PM 1 composition and emission in this area, this experimental study aims at determining the source profile, their relative contributions and the dispersion of finer particles. Four sources were identified and quantified using the Positive Matrix Factorization receptor model: (1) mixed combustions related to the residential activities, (2) agricultural biomass burning in addition to the resuspension of anthropogenic and natural debris carried by the wind, (3) gasoline and (4) diesel traffic-related combustions. The role of local atmospheric circulation was also investigated to identify the pollutant sources. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Contribution of regional-scale fire events to ozone and PM2.5 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two specific fires from 2011 are tracked for local to regional scale contribution to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using a freely available regulatory modeling system that includes the BlueSky wildland fire emissions tool, Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model. The modeling system was applied to track the contribution from a wildfire (Wallow) and prescribed fire (Flint Hills) using both source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches. The model estimated fire contribution to primary and secondary pollutants are comparable using source sensitivity (brute-force zero out) and source apportionment (Integrated Source Apportionment Method) approaches. Model estimated O3 enhancement relative to CO is similar to values reported in literature indicating the modeling system captures the range of O3 inhibition possible near fires and O3 production both near the fire and downwind. O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are formed in the fire plume and transported downwind along with highly reactive VOC species such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde that are both emitted by the fire and rapidly produced in the fire plume by VOC oxidation reactions. PAN and aldehydes contribute to continued downwind O3 production. The transport and thermal decomposition of PAN to nitrogen oxides (NOX) enables O3 production in areas

Know Your Enemy - Implementation of Bioremediation within a Suspected DNAPL Source Zone Following High-Resolution Site Characterization at Contractors Road Heavy Equipment Area, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chrest, Anne; Daprato, Rebecca; Burcham, Michael; Johnson, Jill

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), has adopted high-resolution site characterization (HRSC) sampling techniques during baseline sampling prior to implementation of remedies to confirm and refine the conceptual site model (CSM). HRSC sampling was performed at Contractors Road Heavy Equipment Area (CRHE) prior to bioremediation implementation to verify the extent of the trichloroethene (TCE) dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source area (defined as the area with TCE concentrations above 1% solubility) and its daughter product dissolved plume that had been identified during previous HRSC events. The results of HRSC pre-bioremediation implementation sampling suggested that the TCE source area was larger than originally identified during initial site characterization activities, leading to a design refinement to improve electron donor distribution and increase the likelihood of achieving remedial objectives. Approach/Activities: HRSC was conducted from 2009 through 2014 to delineate the vertical and horizontal extent of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) in the groundwater. Approximately 2,340 samples were collected from 363 locations using direct push technology (DPT) groundwater sampling techniques. Samples were collected from up to 14 depth intervals at each location using a 4-foot sampling screen. This HRSC approach identified a narrow (approx. 5 to 30 feet wide), approximately 3,000 square foot TCE DNAPL source area (maximum detected TCE concentration of 160,000 micrograms per liter [micro-g/L] at DPT sampling location DPT0225). Prior to implementation of a bioremediation interim measure, HRSC baseline sampling was conducted using DPT groundwater sampling techniques. Concentrations of TCE were an order of magnitude lower than previous reported (12,000 micro-g/L maximum at DPT sampling location DPT0225) at locations sampled adjacent to previous sampling locations. To further evaluate the variability in concentrations observed additional sampling was conducted in 2016. The results identified higher concentrations than originally detected within the previously defined source area and the presence of source zone concentrations upgradient of the previously defined source area (maximum concentration observed 570,000 micro-g/L). The HRSC baseline sampling data allowed for a revision of the bioremediation design prior to implementation. Bioremediation was implemented within the eastern portion of the source area in November and December 2016 and quarterly performance monitoring was completed in March and June 2017. Reductions in CVOC concentrations from baseline were observed at all performance monitoring wells in the treatment area, and by June 2017, an approximate 95% CVOC mass reduction was observed based on monitoring well sampling results. Results/Lessons Learned: The results of this project suggest that, due to the complexity of DNAPL source zones, HRSC during pre-implementation baseline sampling in the TCE source zone was an essential strategy for verifying the treatment area and depth prior to remedy implementation. If the upgradient source zone mass was not identified prior to bioremediation implementation, the mass would have served as a long-term source for the dissolved plume.

Greening Solutions Applicable in the Tailing Ponds Tăusani and Bosneag from Moldova Nouă

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burlacu, I. F.; Deak, G.; Raischi, M. C.; Daescu, A.; Zamfir, S.; Uritescu, B.; Cirstinoiu, C.; Olteanu, M. V.

2017-06-01

This study aims to propose solutions for greening of the tailings ponds resulted from mining activities with transboundary impacts. As case study, are proposed for greening the Boşneag and Tăuşani tailing ponds because they pollute Moldova Nouă, Danube and towns on the Serbian side of the Danube with particles in suspension. We analyzed four scenarios of modeling dispersion of particles in suspension (copper and other heavy metals) from the Tăuşani and Boşneag tailing ponds in the theoretical background where pollution has cross-border nature and require studying the transport of pollutants over a long distance from the source and modeling dispersion of particles in suspension in the atmosphere, these were performed using TAPM model, able to simulate the aspects mentioned. After running the software for modeling the dispersion of particles, was revealed that the pollution generated from the pollution sources taked into consideration is very high and significantly affects quality of life on considerable areas both in Romania and Serbia, thus amplifying the need to implement greening solutions of the analyzed area. Following the results obtained are presented three alternatives solutions for greening the area studied, aiming at minimizing the impact on the environmental and population.

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers.

PubMed

Devaux, C; Lavigne, C; Austerlitz, F; Klein, E K

2007-02-01

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.

Urban transmission of schistosomiasis: new epidemiological situation in the forest area of Pernambuco.

PubMed

Gomes, Elainne Christine de Souza; Mesquita, Millena Carla da Silva; Rehn, Vitorina Nerivânia Covello; Nascimento, Wheverton Ricardo Correia do; Loyo, Rodrigo; Barbosa, Constança Simões

2016-01-01

Schistosomiasis is considered an endemic disease in Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco, a district which has presented both high incidence and prevalence of it for decades. Poor environmental conditions lead to contamination of water sources in rural areas, which are used by the population during daily activities, resulting in typical transmission. Recently, there has been evidence of vector snails in urban areas, which could set a new model for schistosomiasis transmission in this district. To identify the new epidemiological situation for the urban transmission of schistosomiasis in Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco. A malacological survey was conducted in all water sources in the city limits to investigate schistosomiasis vector snails (Biomphalaria spp.). The collected snails were examined for taxonomic identification and Schistosoma mansoni infection. All breeding sites were georeferenced to build risk maps through the TrackMaker PRO program and ArcGIS software. We identified 22 Biomphalaria straminea breeding sites and collected 1,704 snails. One of these breeding sites was identified as a source of transmission and seven as potential sources of transmission. The designed maps identified two risk areas of urban transmission of schistosomiasis and expansion areas for breeding sites, establishing an increased risk of transmission to the population. This study verified the existence of a new epidemiological situation in which the possibility of the urban transmission of the disease was confirmed.

Prediction of Bicarbonate Requirements for Enhanced Reductive Bioremediation of Chlorinated Solvent-Contaminated Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, C.; Barry, D. A.

2008-12-01

Enhanced anaerobic dechlorination is a promising technology for in situ remediation of chlorinated ethene DNAPL source areas. However, the build-up of organic acids and HCl in the source zone can lead to significant groundwater acidification. The resulting pH drop inhibits the activity of the dechlorinating microorganisms and thus may stall the remediation process. Source zone remediation requires extensive dechlorination, such that it may be common for soil's natural buffering capacity to be exceeded, and for acidic conditions to develop. In these cases bicarbonate addition (e.g., NaHCO3, KHCO3) is required for pH control. As a design tool for treatment strategies, we have developed BUCHLORAC, a Windows Graphical User Interface based on an abiotic geochemical model that allows the user to predict the acidity generated during dechlorination and associated buffer requirements for their specific operating conditions. BUCHLORAC was motivated by the SABRE (Source Area BioREmediation) project, which aims to evaluate the effectiveness of enhanced reductive dechlorination in the treatment of chlorinated solvent source zones.

Evaluation of Lower East Fork Poplar Creek Mercury Sources - Model Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ketelle, Richard; Brandt, Craig C.; Peterson, Mark J.

The purpose of this report is to assess new data that has become available and provide an update to the evaluations and modeling presented in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Technical Manuscript Evaluation of lower East Fork Poplar Creek (LEFPC) Mercury Sources (Watson et al., 2016). Primary sources of field and laboratory data for this update include multiple US Department of Energy (DOE) programs including Environmental Management (EM; e.g., Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program, Mercury Remediation Technology Development [TD], and Applied Field Research Initiative), Office of Science (Mercury Science Focus Areas [SFA] project), and the Y-12 National Security Complexmore » (Y-12) Compliance Department.« less

Parameter Sensitivity and Laboratory Benchmarking of a Biogeochemical Process Model for Enhanced Anaerobic Dechlorination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouznetsova, I.; Gerhard, J. I.; Mao, X.; Barry, D. A.; Robinson, C.; Brovelli, A.; Harkness, M.; Fisher, A.; Mack, E. E.; Payne, J. A.; Dworatzek, S.; Roberts, J.

2008-12-01

A detailed model to simulate trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination in anaerobic groundwater systems has been developed and implemented through PHAST, a robust and flexible geochemical modeling platform. The approach is comprehensive but retains flexibility such that models of varying complexity can be used to simulate TCE biodegradation in the vicinity of nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zones. The complete model considers a full suite of biological (e.g., dechlorination, fermentation, sulfate and iron reduction, electron donor competition, toxic inhibition, pH inhibition), physical (e.g., flow and mass transfer) and geochemical processes (e.g., pH modulation, gas formation, mineral interactions). Example simulations with the model demonstrated that the feedback between biological, physical, and geochemical processes is critical. Successful simulation of a thirty-two-month column experiment with site soil, complex groundwater chemistry, and exhibiting both anaerobic dechlorination and endogenous respiration, provided confidence in the modeling approach. A comprehensive suite of batch simulations was then conducted to estimate the sensitivity of predicted TCE degradation to the 36 model input parameters. A local sensitivity analysis was first employed to rank the importance of parameters, revealing that 5 parameters consistently dominated model predictions across a range of performance metrics. A global sensitivity analysis was then performed to evaluate the influence of a variety of full parameter data sets available in the literature. The modeling study was performed as part of the SABRE (Source Area BioREmediation) project, a public/private consortium whose charter is to determine if enhanced anaerobic bioremediation can result in effective and quantifiable treatment of chlorinated solvent DNAPL source areas. The modelling conducted has provided valuable insight into the complex interactions between processes in the evolving biogeochemical systems, particularly at the laboratory scale.

Beach litter occurrence in sandy littorals: The potential role of urban areas, rivers and beach users in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poeta, Gianluca; Conti, Luisa; Malavasi, Marco; Battisti, Corrado; Acosta, Alicia Teresa Rosario

2016-11-01

Litter washed ashore on the coastline, also called beach litter, constitutes one of the most obvious signs of marine litter pollution. Surveys of beach litter represent a fundamental tool for monitoring pollution in the marine environment and have been used world-wide to classify and quantify marine litter. Identifying the sources of marine and beach litter is, together with education, the prime weapon in combating this type of pollution. This work investigates the impact of three main potential land sources on litter occurrence: urban areas, rivers and beach users. Three sources were analyzed simultaneously on a broad scale (Lazio region, central Italy) using a random sampling design and fitting a generalized linear mixed-effect model. The results show that urban areas are the main drivers for the occurrence of marine litter along central Italy's coastal ecosystems, suggesting that the presence of such litter on Lazio beaches could be effectively reduced by identifying failings in recycling and waste collection procedures and by improving waste processing systems and sewage treatment in urban areas.

High Background Ozone Events in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Area: Effects from Central American Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, R.; Wang, S. C.; Yang, S.; Wang, Y.; Talbot, R. W.

2016-12-01

The policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone is defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as the surface ozone mixing ratio that would occur over the U.S. without North American anthropogenic emission influences. PRB ozone over the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area may be affected by foreign sources due to its unique geographical location and meteorology. Our monitoring data revealed several high ozone events over HGB area which might be caused by Central American fire during the years of 2013-2015. To qualify the effects from Central American fire, we estimated the US, Central American and worldwide background over HGB area during those events using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model. Anomalies in fire emissions leading to high PRB ozone were mapped through spatiotemporal sampling of the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) along background trajectories of air masses affecting the HGB area prior to and during the selected high PRB ozone days. Daily HGB PRB ozone estimated by researchers at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) was used as the data source to validate model results. Results showed that contribution of emission from Central American to HGB PRB ozone could be tripled during fire events compared to non-impacted fire days. Besides fire emissions from Central American, different types of meteorological events (e.g., cold fronts and thunderstorms) and high local photochemical production (e.g., heat waves and stagnation) are also found associated with high PRB ozone in HGB area during these events. Thus we imply that synthetic contribution from foreign sources and local meteorology to HGB PRB ozone warrants further investigated.

Modelling urban δ13C variations in the Greater Toronto Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, S.; Vogel, F. R.; Murphy, J. G.; Worthy, D. E. J.; Zhang, J.; Zheng, Q.; Moran, M. D.

2015-12-01

Even in urbanized regions, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are derived from a variety of biogenic and anthropogenic sources and are influenced by atmospheric transport across borders. As policies are introduced to reduce the emission of CO2, there is a need for independent verification of emissions reporting. In this work, we aim to use carbon isotope (13CO2 and 12CO2) simulations in combination with atmospheric measurements to distinguish between CO2 sources in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. This is being done by developing an urban δ13C framework based on existing CO2 emission data and forward modelling using a chemistry transport model, CHIMERE. The framework is designed to use region specific δ13C signatures of the dominant CO2 sources together with a CO2 inventory at a fine spatial and temporal resolution; the product is compared against highly accurate 13CO2 and 12CO2 ambient data. The strength of this framework is its potential to estimate both locally produced and regionally transported CO­2. Locally, anthropogenic CO­2 in urban areas is often derived from natural gas combustion (for heating) and gasoline/diesel combustion (for transportation); the isotopic signatures of these processes are significantly different (approximately d13CVPDB = -40 ‰ and -26 ‰ respectively) and can be used to infer their relative contributions. Furthermore, the contribution of transported CO2 can also be estimated as nearby regions often rely on other sources of heating (e.g. coal combustion), which has a very different signature (approximately d13CVPDB = -23 ‰). We present an analysis of the GTA in contrast to Paris, France where atmospheric observations are also available and 13CO2 has been studied. Utilizing our δ13C framework and differences in sectoral isotopic signatures, we quantify the relative contribution of CO2 sources on the overall measured concentration and assess the ability of this framework as a tool for tracing the evolution of sector-specific emissions.