“RLINE: A Line Source Dispersion Model for Near-Surface Releases”

EPA Science Inventory

Growing concern about human exposure and related adverse health effects near roadways initiated an effort by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency to reexamine the dispersion of mobile source related pollutants. These adverse effects, in combination with the fact that a signi...

Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gowardhan, Akshay; Neuscamman, Stephanie; Donetti, John

Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a moremore » detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).« less

AIR QUALITY SIMULATION MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR ONE-HOUR AVERAGES

EPA Science Inventory

If a one-hour standard for sulfur dioxide were promulgated, air quality dispersion modeling in the vicinity of major point sources would be an important air quality management tool. Would currently available dispersion models be suitable for use in demonstrating attainment of suc...

Characterizing the detectability of emission signals from a North Korean nuclear detonation

DOE PAGES

Werth, David; Buckley, Robert

2017-02-01

Here, the detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously ‘backtrack’ it to its source.

Study on gas diffusion emitted from different height of point source.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F

2009-01-01

The flow and dispersion of stack-gas emitted from different elevated point source around flow obstacles in an urban environment have been investigated, using computational fluid dynamics models (CFD). The results were compared with the experimental results obtained from the diffusion wind tunnel under different conditions of thermal stability (stable, neutral or unstable). The flow and dispersion fields in the boundary layer in an urban environment were examined with different flow obstacles. Gaseous pollutant was discharged in the simulated boundary layer over the flat area. The CFD models used for the simulation were based on the steady-state Reynolds-Average Navier-Stoke equations (RANS) with kappa-epsilon turbulence models; standard kappa-epsilon and RNG kappa-epsilon models. The flow and dispersion data measured in the wind tunnel experiments were compared with the results of the CFD models in order to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the pollutant dispersion. The results of the CFD models showed good agreement with the results of the wind tunnel experiments. The results indicate that the turbulent velocity is reduced by the obstacles models. The maximum dispersion appears around the wake region of the obstacles.

A modeling framework for characterizing near-road air pollutant concentration at community scales

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we combine information from transportation network, traffic emissions, and dispersion model to develop a framework to inform exposure estimates for traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) with a high spatial resolution. A Research LINE source dispersion model (R-LIN...

AERMOD: A DISPERSION MODEL FOR INDUSTRIAL SOURCE APPLICATIONS PART I: GENERAL MODEL FORMULATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

The formulations of the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee's applied air dispersion model (AERMOD) as related to the characterization of the planetary boundary layer are described. This is the first in a series of three articles. Part II describes the formulation of...

Crosswell electromagnetic modeling from impulsive source: Optimization strategy for dispersion suppression in convolutional perfectly matched layer

PubMed Central

Fang, Sinan; Pan, Heping; Du, Ting; Konaté, Ahmed Amara; Deng, Chengxiang; Qin, Zhen; Guo, Bo; Peng, Ling; Ma, Huolin; Li, Gang; Zhou, Feng

2016-01-01

This study applied the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method to forward modeling of the low-frequency crosswell electromagnetic (EM) method. Specifically, we implemented impulse sources and convolutional perfectly matched layer (CPML). In the process to strengthen CPML, we observed that some dispersion was induced by the real stretch κ, together with an angular variation of the phase velocity of the transverse electric plane wave; the conclusion was that this dispersion was positively related to the real stretch and was little affected by grid interval. To suppress the dispersion in the CPML, we first derived the analytical solution for the radiation field of the magneto-dipole impulse source in the time domain. Then, a numerical simulation of CPML absorption with high-frequency pulses qualitatively amplified the dispersion laws through wave field snapshots. A numerical simulation using low-frequency pulses suggested an optimal parameter strategy for CPML from the established criteria. Based on its physical nature, the CPML method of simply warping space-time was predicted to be a promising approach to achieve ideal absorption, although it was still difficult to entirely remove the dispersion. PMID:27585538

Tracer dispersion experiments carried out in London during 2003 and 2004 as part of the DAPPLE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D.; Shallcross, D.; Nickless, G.; White, I.

2005-12-01

Transport, dispersion and ultimate fate of pollutants has very important implications for the environment at the urban, regional and global scales. Localised emissions of both man-made and naturally produced pollutants can both directly and indirectly impact the health of the inhabitants. The DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollutants and their Penetration into the Local Environment) consortium consists of six universities, which comprises of a multidisciplinary approach to study relatively small-scale urban atmospheric dispersion. Wind tunnel modelling studies, computer fluid dynamical simulations, fieldwork studies using tracers and dispersion modelling were all carried out in an attempt to achieve this. In this paper we report on tracer dispersion experiments carried out in May 2003 and June 2004. These involve the release of various perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers centred on Marylebone Road in London. These compounds are inert, non-reactive and have a very low atmospheric background concentration with little variability. These properties make them the ideal atmospheric tracer and this combined with an ultra sensitive analytical technique (sample pre-concentration on carbon based adsorbents followed with detection by Negative Ion Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry) makes very small release amounts feasible. The source-receptor relationship is studied for various source and receptor positions and distances. Source receptor relationships for both rooftop and indoor positions were evaluated as part of the project. Results of concurrent meteorological measurements are also presented as well as comparison with a number of simple dispersion models.

Numerical prediction on the dispersion of pollutant particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Kahar; Ali, Zairi; Ubaidullah, S.; Zahid, M. N.

2012-06-01

The increasing concern on air pollution has led people around the world to find more efficient ways to control the problem. Air dispersion modeling is proven to be one of the alternatives that provide economical ways to control the growing threat of air pollution. The objective of this research is to develop a practical numerical algorithm to predict the dispersion of pollutant particles around a specific source of emission. The source selected was a rubber wood manufacturing plant. Gaussian-plume model were used as air dispersion model due to its simplicity and generic application. Results of this study show the concentrations of the pollutant particles on ground level reached approximately 90μg/m3, compared with other software. This value surpasses the limit of 50μg/m3 stipulated by the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and Recommended Malaysian Guidelines (RMG) set by Environment Department of Malaysia. The results also show high concentration of pollutant particles reading during dru seasons as compared to that of rainy seasons. In general, the developed algorithm is proven to be able to predict particles distribution around emitted source with acceptable accuracy.

Improved quantification of CO2 emission at Campi Flegrei by combined Lagrangian Stochastic and Eulerian dispersion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedone, Maria; Granieri, Domenico; Moretti, Roberto; Fedele, Alessandro; Troise, Claudia; Somma, Renato; De Natale, Giuseppe

2017-12-01

This study investigates fumarolic CO2 emissions at Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy) and their dispersion in the lowest atmospheric boundary layer. We innovatively utilize a Lagrangian Stochastic dispersion model (WindTrax) combined with an Eulerian model (DISGAS) to diagnose the dispersion of diluted gas plumes over large and complex topographic domains. New measurements of CO2 concentrations acquired in February and October 2014 in the area of Pisciarelli and Solfatara, the two major fumarolic fields of Campi Flegrei caldera, and simultaneous measurements of meteorological parameters are used to: 1) test the ability of WindTrax to calculate the fumarolic CO2 flux from the investigated sources, and 2) perform predictive numerical simulations to resolve the mutual interference between the CO2 emissions of the two adjacent areas. This novel approach allows us to a) better quantify the CO2 emission of the fumarolic source, b) discriminate ;true; CO2 contributions for each source, and c) understand the potential impact of the composite CO2 plume (Pisciarelli ;plus; Solfatara) on the highly populated areas inside the Campi Flegrei caldera.

RANS modeling of scalar dispersion from localized sources within a simplified urban-area model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Riccardo; Capra, Stefano; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2011-11-01

The dispersion of a passive scalar downstream a localized source within a simplified urban-like geometry is examined by means of RANS scalar flux models. The computations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and for three different incoming wind directions (0°, 45°, 90°) at a roughness Reynolds number of Ret = 391. A Reynolds stress transport model is used to close the flow governing equations whereas both the standard eddy-diffusivity closure and algebraic flux models are employed to close the transport equation for the passive scalar. The comparison with a DNS database shows improved reliability from algebraic scalar flux models towards predicting both the mean concentration and the plume structure. Since algebraic flux models do not increase substantially the computational effort, the results indicate that the use of tensorial-diffusivity can be promising tool for dispersion simulations for the urban environment.

Methodologies for evaluating performance and assessing uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Joseph C.

This thesis describes methodologies to evaluate the performance and to assess the uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion models, tools that predict the fate of gases and aerosols upon their release into the atmosphere. Because of the large economic and public-health impacts often associated with the use of the dispersion model results, these models should be properly evaluated, and their uncertainty should be properly accounted for and understood. The CALPUFF, HPAC, and VLSTRACK dispersion modeling systems were applied to the Dipole Pride (DP26) field data (˜20 km in scale), in order to demonstrate the evaluation and uncertainty assessment methodologies. Dispersion model performance was found to be strongly dependent on the wind models used to generate gridded wind fields from observed station data. This is because, despite the fact that the test site was a flat area, the observed surface wind fields still showed considerable spatial variability, partly because of the surrounding mountains. It was found that the two components were comparable for the DP26 field data, with variability more important than uncertainty closer to the source, and less important farther away from the source. Therefore, reducing data errors for input meteorology may not necessarily increase model accuracy due to random turbulence. DP26 was a research-grade field experiment, where the source, meteorological, and concentration data were all well-measured. Another typical application of dispersion modeling is a forensic study where the data are usually quite scarce. An example would be the modeling of the alleged releases of chemical warfare agents during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, where the source data had to rely on intelligence reports, and where Iraq had stopped reporting weather data to the World Meteorological Organization since the 1981 Iran-Iraq-war. Therefore the meteorological fields inside Iraq must be estimated by models such as prognostic mesoscale meteorological models, based on observational data from areas outside of Iraq, and using the global fields simulated by the global meteorological models as the initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale models. It was found that while comparing model predictions to observations in areas outside of Iraq, the predicted surface wind directions had errors between 30 to 90 deg, but the inter-model differences (or uncertainties) in the predicted surface wind directions inside Iraq, where there were no onsite data, were fairly constant at about 70 deg. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Dense magnetized plasma associated with a fast radio burst.

PubMed

Masui, Kiyoshi; Lin, Hsiu-Hsien; Sievers, Jonathan; Anderson, Christopher J; Chang, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Xuelei; Ganguly, Apratim; Jarvis, Miranda; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Li, Yi-Chao; Liao, Yu-Wei; McLaughlin, Maura; Pen, Ue-Li; Peterson, Jeffrey B; Roman, Alexander; Timbie, Peter T; Voytek, Tabitha; Yadav, Jaswant K

2015-12-24

Fast radio bursts are bright, unresolved, non-repeating, broadband, millisecond flashes, found primarily at high Galactic latitudes, with dispersion measures much larger than expected for a Galactic source. The inferred all-sky burst rate is comparable to the core-collapse supernova rate out to redshift 0.5. If the observed dispersion measures are assumed to be dominated by the intergalactic medium, the sources are at cosmological distances with redshifts of 0.2 to 1 (refs 10 and 11). These parameters are consistent with a wide range of source models. One fast burst revealed circular polarization of the radio emission, but no linear polarization was detected, and hence no Faraday rotation measure could be determined. Here we report the examination of archival data revealing Faraday rotation in the fast radio burst FRB 110523. Its radio flux and dispersion measure are consistent with values from previously reported bursts and, accounting for a Galactic contribution to the dispersion and using a model of intergalactic electron density, we place the source at a maximum redshift of 0.5. The burst has a much higher rotation measure than expected for this line of sight through the Milky Way and the intergalactic medium, indicating magnetization in the vicinity of the source itself or within a host galaxy. The pulse was scattered by two distinct plasma screens during propagation, which requires either a dense nebula associated with the source or a location within the central region of its host galaxy. The detection in this instance of magnetization and scattering that are both local to the source favours models involving young stellar populations such as magnetars over models involving the mergers of older neutron stars, which are more likely to be located in low-density regions of the host galaxy.

OCD: The offshore and coastal dispersion model. Volume 1. User's guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiCristofaro, D.C.; Hanna, S.R.

1989-11-01

The Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) Model has been developed to simulate the effect of offshore emissions from point, area, or line sources on the air quality of coastal regions. The OCD model was adapted from the EPA guideline model MPTER (EPA, 1980). Modifications were made to incorporate overwater plume transport and dispersion as well as changes that occur as the plume crosses the shoreline. This is a revised OCD model, the fourth version to date. The volume is the User's Guide which includes a Model overview, technical description, user's instructions, and notes on model evaluation and results.

SPECIATE--EPA'S DATABASE OF SPECIATED EMISSION PROFILES

EPA Science Inventory

SPECIATE is EPA's repository of Total Organic Compound and Particulate Matter speciated profiles for a wide variety of sources. The profiles in this system are provided for air quality dispersion modeling and as a library for source-receptor and source apportionment type models. ...

Predicting seed dispersal using a Lagrangian Stochastic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, C. I.; Chen, C. W.; Su, M. D.

2017-12-01

Migration and expansion of a plant species are determined by longdistance dispersion (LDD). A more sophisticated mechanical dispersion model is needed for mimicking LDD of wind-driven seeds. This study simulated seed dispersion trajectories in canopy turbulence by using the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model under varying atmospheric stabilities in conjunction with the effects of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate intermittency. The effects of friction velocity, seed release height, and seed terminal velocity were also studied. The results showed that both the unstable atmosphere and the inclusion of the dissipation rate intermittency in the model could increase seeds' LDD. The number of seeds that escape the canopy volume by dissipation intermittency is increased under unstable atmospheric conditions. As a result, more seeds can be transported a further distance. When dissipation intermittency is included under astrong unstable atmosphere, the peak location of dispersal kernel tends to be closer to the source. Contrasting this, under both neutral and stable conditions when LDD of both are similar, the peak location will be further away from the source. However higher friction velocity, higher seed release height, and lower seed terminal velocity will all increase the LDD of seeds irregardless of atmospheric conditions. The change of LDD due to change in friction velocity, seed release height, or the seed terminal velocity, would be heightened under unstable conditions

Contaminant dispersal in bounded turbulent shear flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wallace, J.M.; Bernard, P.S.; Chiang, K.F.

The dispersion of smoke downstream of a line source at the wall and at y{sup +} = 30 in a turbulent boundary layer has been predicted with a non-local model of the scalar fluxes {bar u}c and {bar v}c. The predicted plume from the wall source has been compared to high Schmidt number experimental measurements using a combination of hot-wire anemometry to obtain velocity component data synchronously with concentration data obtained optically. The predicted plumes from the source at y{sup +} = 30 and at the wall also have been compared to a low Schmidt number direct numerical simulation. Nearmore » the source, the non-local flux models give considerably better predictions than models which account solely for mean gradient transport. At a sufficient distance downstream the gradient models gives reasonably good predictions.« less

Optimisation of dispersion parameters of Gaussian plume model for CO₂ dispersion.

PubMed

Liu, Xiong; Godbole, Ajit; Lu, Cheng; Michal, Guillaume; Venton, Philip

2015-11-01

The carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects entail the possibility of accidental release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. To quantify the spread of CO2 following such release, the 'Gaussian' dispersion model is often used to estimate the resulting CO2 concentration levels in the surroundings. The Gaussian model enables quick estimates of the concentration levels. However, the traditionally recommended values of the 'dispersion parameters' in the Gaussian model may not be directly applicable to CO2 dispersion. This paper presents an optimisation technique to obtain the dispersion parameters in order to achieve a quick estimation of CO2 concentration levels in the atmosphere following CO2 blowouts. The optimised dispersion parameters enable the Gaussian model to produce quick estimates of CO2 concentration levels, precluding the necessity to set up and run much more complicated models. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were employed to produce reference CO2 dispersion profiles in various atmospheric stability classes (ASC), different 'source strengths' and degrees of ground roughness. The performance of the CFD models was validated against the 'Kit Fox' field measurements, involving dispersion over a flat horizontal terrain, both with low and high roughness regions. An optimisation model employing a genetic algorithm (GA) to determine the best dispersion parameters in the Gaussian plume model was set up. Optimum values of the dispersion parameters for different ASCs that can be used in the Gaussian plume model for predicting CO2 dispersion were obtained.

Modeling of dispersion near roadways based on the vehicle-induced turbulence concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahlodin, Ali M.; Sotudeh-Gharebagh, Rahmat; Zhu, Yifang

A mathematical model is developed for dispersion near roadways by incorporating vehicle-induced turbulence (VIT) into Gaussian dispersion modeling using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The model is based on the Gaussian plume equation in which roadway is regarded as a series of point sources. The Gaussian dispersion parameters are modified by simulation of the roadway using CFD in order to evaluate turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) as a measure of VIT. The model was evaluated against experimental carbon monoxide concentrations downwind of two major freeways reported in the literature. Good agreements were achieved between model results and the literature data. A significant difference was observed between the model results with and without considering VIT. The difference is rather high for data very close to the freeways. This model, after evaluation with additional data, may be used as a framework for predicting dispersion and deposition from any roadway for different traffic (vehicle type and speed) conditions.

Traveltime delay relative to the maximum energy of the wave train for dispersive tsunamis propagating across the Pacific Ocean: the case of 2010 and 2015 Chilean Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poupardin, A.; Heinrich, P.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Jamelot, A.; Reymond, D.; Sugioka, H.

2018-05-01

This paper evaluates the importance of frequency dispersion in the propagation of recent trans-Pacific tsunamis. Frequency dispersion induces a time delay for the most energetic waves, which increases for long propagation distances and short source dimensions. To calculate this time delay, propagation of tsunamis is simulated and analyzed from spectrograms of time-series at specific gauges in the Pacific Ocean. One- and two-dimensional simulations are performed by solving either shallow water or Boussinesq equations and by considering realistic seismic sources. One-dimensional sensitivity tests are first performed in a constant-depth channel to study the influence of the source width. Two-dimensional tests are then performed in a simulated Pacific Ocean with a 4000-m constant depth and by considering tectonic sources of 2010 and 2015 Chilean earthquakes. For these sources, both the azimuth and the distance play a major role in the frequency dispersion of tsunamis. Finally, simulations are performed considering the real bathymetry of the Pacific Ocean. Multiple reflections, refractions as well as shoaling of waves result in much more complex time series for which the effects of the frequency dispersion are hardly discernible. The main point of this study is to evaluate frequency dispersion in terms of traveltime delays by calculating spectrograms for a time window of 6 hours after the arrival of the first wave. Results of the spectral analysis show that the wave packets recorded by pressure and tide sensors in the Pacific Ocean seem to be better reproduced by the Boussinesq model than the shallow water model and approximately follow the theoretical dispersion relationship linking wave arrival times and frequencies. Additionally, a traveltime delay is determined above which effects of frequency dispersion are considered to be significant in terms of maximum surface elevations.

An intercomparison of models used to simulate the short-range atmospheric dispersion of agricultural ammonia emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Ammonia emitted into the atmosphere from agricultural sources can have an impact on nearby sensitive ecosystems either through elevated ambient concentrations or dry/wet deposition to vegetation and soil surfaces. Short-range atmospheric dispersion models are often used to assess...

Automated source term and wind parameter estimation for atmospheric transport and dispersion applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieringer, Paul E.; Rodriguez, Luna M.; Vandenberghe, Francois; Hurst, Jonathan G.; Bieberbach, George; Sykes, Ian; Hannan, John R.; Zaragoza, Jake; Fry, Richard N.

2015-12-01

Accurate simulations of the atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) of hazardous airborne materials rely heavily on the source term parameters necessary to characterize the initial release and meteorological conditions that drive the downwind dispersion. In many cases the source parameters are not known and consequently based on rudimentary assumptions. This is particularly true of accidental releases and the intentional releases associated with terrorist incidents. When available, meteorological observations are often not representative of the conditions at the location of the release and the use of these non-representative meteorological conditions can result in significant errors in the hazard assessments downwind of the sensors, even when the other source parameters are accurately characterized. Here, we describe a computationally efficient methodology to characterize both the release source parameters and the low-level winds (eg. winds near the surface) required to produce a refined downwind hazard. This methodology, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation (STE) Algorithm (VIRSA), consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include a back-trajectory based source inversion method, a forward Gaussian puff dispersion model, a variational refinement algorithm that uses both a simple forward AT&D model that is a surrogate for the more complex Gaussian puff model and a formal adjoint of this surrogate model. The back-trajectory based method is used to calculate a ;first guess; source estimate based on the available observations of the airborne contaminant plume and atmospheric conditions. The variational refinement algorithm is then used to iteratively refine the first guess STE parameters and meteorological variables. The algorithm has been evaluated across a wide range of scenarios of varying complexity. It has been shown to improve the source parameters for location by several hundred percent (normalized by the distance from source to the closest sampler), and improve mass estimates by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, it also has the ability to operate in scenarios with inconsistencies between the wind and airborne contaminant sensor observations and adjust the wind to provide a better match between the hazard prediction and the observations.

Microscale Obstacle Resolving Air Quality Model Evaluation with the Michelstadt Case

PubMed Central

Rakai, Anikó; Kristóf, Gergely

2013-01-01

Modelling pollutant dispersion in cities is challenging for air quality models as the urban obstacles have an important effect on the flow field and thus the dispersion. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models with an additional scalar dispersion transport equation are a possible way to resolve the flowfield in the urban canopy and model dispersion taking into consideration the effect of the buildings explicitly. These models need detailed evaluation with the method of verification and validation to gain confidence in their reliability and use them as a regulatory purpose tool in complex urban geometries. This paper shows the performance of an open source general purpose CFD code, OpenFOAM for a complex urban geometry, Michelstadt, which has both flow field and dispersion measurement data. Continuous release dispersion results are discussed to show the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling approach, focusing on the value of the turbulent Schmidt number, which was found to give best statistical metric results with a value of 0.7. PMID:24027450

Microscale obstacle resolving air quality model evaluation with the Michelstadt case.

PubMed

Rakai, Anikó; Kristóf, Gergely

2013-01-01

Modelling pollutant dispersion in cities is challenging for air quality models as the urban obstacles have an important effect on the flow field and thus the dispersion. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models with an additional scalar dispersion transport equation are a possible way to resolve the flowfield in the urban canopy and model dispersion taking into consideration the effect of the buildings explicitly. These models need detailed evaluation with the method of verification and validation to gain confidence in their reliability and use them as a regulatory purpose tool in complex urban geometries. This paper shows the performance of an open source general purpose CFD code, OpenFOAM for a complex urban geometry, Michelstadt, which has both flow field and dispersion measurement data. Continuous release dispersion results are discussed to show the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling approach, focusing on the value of the turbulent Schmidt number, which was found to give best statistical metric results with a value of 0.7.

Regional-scale input of dispersed and discrete volcanic ash to the Izu-Bonin and Mariana subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scudder, Rachel P.; Murray, Richard W.; Schindlbeck, Julie C.; Kutterolf, Steffen; Hauff, Folkmar; McKinley, Claire C.

2014-11-01

We have geochemically and statistically characterized bulk marine sediment and ash layers at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1149 (Izu-Bonin Arc) and Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 52 (Mariana Arc), and have quantified that multiple dispersed ash sources collectively comprise ˜30-35% of the hemipelagic sediment mass entering the Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction system. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate that the bulk sediment at Site 1149 is a mixture of Chinese Loess, a second compositionally distinct eolian source, a dispersed mafic ash, and a dispersed felsic ash. We interpret the source of these ashes as, respectively, being basalt from the Izu-Bonin Front Arc (IBFA) and rhyolite from the Honshu Arc. Sr-, Nd-, and Pb isotopic analyses of the bulk sediment are consistent with the chemical/statistical-based interpretations. Comparison of the mass accumulation rate of the dispersed ash component to discrete ash layer parameters (thickness, sedimentation rate, and number of layers) suggests that eruption frequency, rather than eruption size, drives the dispersed ash record. At Site 52, the geochemistry and statistical modeling indicates that Chinese Loess, IBFA, dispersed BNN (boninite from Izu-Bonin), and a dispersed felsic ash of unknown origin are the sources. At Site 1149, the ash layers and the dispersed ash are compositionally coupled, whereas at Site 52 they are decoupled in that there are no boninite layers, yet boninite is dispersed within the sediment. Changes in the volcanic and eolian inputs through time indicate strong arc-related and climate-related controls.

Investigation of the potential for long-range transport of mercury to the Everglades using the organic chemistry integrated dispersion (ORCHID) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, D.S.; Kienzle, M.A.; Ferris, D.C.

1996-12-31

The objective of this study is to identify potential long-range sources of mercury within the southeast region of the United States. Preliminary results of a climatological study using the Short-range Layered Atmospheric Model (SLAM) transport model from a select source in the southeast U.S. are presented. The potential for long-range transport from Oak Ridge, Tennessee to Florida is discussed. The transport and transformation of mercury during periods of favorable transport to south Florida is modeled using the Organic Chemistry Integrated Dispersion (ORCHID) model, which contains the transport model used in the climatology study. SLAM/ORCHID results indicate the potential for mercurymore » reaching southeast Florida from the source and the atmospheric oxidation of mercury during transport.« less

Regional source identification using Lagrangian stochastic particle dispersion and HYSPLIT backward-trajectory models.

PubMed

Koracin, Darko; Vellore, Ramesh; Lowenthal, Douglas H; Watson, John G; Koracin, Julide; McCord, Travis; DuBois, David W; Chen, L W Antony; Kumar, Naresh; Knipping, Eladio M; Wheeler, Neil J M; Craig, Kenneth; Reid, Stephen

2011-06-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate the capabilities of the receptor-oriented inverse mode Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Dispersion Model (LSPDM) with the 12-km resolution Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) wind field input for the assessment of source identification from seven regions impacting two receptors located in the eastern United States. The LSPDM analysis was compared with a standard version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) single-particle backward-trajectory analysis using inputs from MM5 and the Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) with horizontal grid resolutions of 12 and 80 km, respectively. The analysis included four 7-day summertime events in 2002; residence times in the modeling domain were computed from the inverse LSPDM runs and HYPSLIT-simulated backward trajectories started from receptor-source heights of 100, 500, 1000, 1500, and 3000 m. Statistics were derived using normalized values of LSPDM- and HYSPLIT-predicted residence times versus Community Multiscale Air Quality model-predicted sulfate concentrations used as baseline information. From 40 cases considered, the LSPDM identified first- and second-ranked emission region influences in 37 cases, whereas HYSPLIT-MM5 (HYSPLIT-EDAS) identified the sources in 21 (16) cases. The LSPDM produced a higher overall correlation coefficient (0.89) compared with HYSPLIT (0.55-0.62). The improvement of using the LSPDM is also seen in the overall normalized root mean square error values of 0.17 for LSPDM compared with 0.30-0.32 for HYSPLIT. The HYSPLIT backward trajectories generally tend to underestimate near-receptor sources because of a lack of stochastic dispersion of the backward trajectories and to overestimate distant sources because of a lack of treatment of dispersion. Additionally, the HYSPLIT backward trajectories showed a lack of consistency in the results obtained from different single vertical levels for starting the backward trajectories. To alleviate problems due to selection of a backward-trajectory starting level within a large complex set of 3-dimensional winds, turbulence, and dispersion, results were averaged from all heights, which yielded uniform improvement against all individual cases.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of eruption source parameters on volcanic ash transport and dispersion modeling using HYSPLIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stunder, B.

2009-12-01

Atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) models are used in real-time at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers to predict the location of airborne volcanic ash at a future time because of the hazardous nature of volcanic ash. Transport and dispersion models usually do not include eruption column physics, but start with an idealized eruption column. Eruption source parameters (ESP) input to the models typically include column top, eruption start time and duration, volcano latitude and longitude, ash particle size distribution, and total mass emission. An example based on the Okmok, Alaska, eruption of July 12-14, 2008, was used to qualitatively estimate the effect of various model inputs on transport and dispersion simulations using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Variations included changing the ash column top and bottom, eruption start time and duration, particle size specifications, simulations with and without gravitational settling, and the effect of different meteorological model data. Graphical ATD model output of ash concentration from the various runs was qualitatively compared. Some parameters such as eruption duration and ash column depth had a large effect, while simulations using only small particles or changing the particle shape factor had much less of an effect. Some other variations such as using only large particles had a small effect for the first day or so after the eruption, then a larger effect on subsequent days. Example probabilistic output will be shown for an ensemble of dispersion model runs with various model inputs. Model output such as this may be useful as a means to account for some of the uncertainties in the model input. To improve volcanic ash ATD models, a reference database for volcanic eruptions is needed, covering many volcanoes. The database should include three major components: (1) eruption source, (2) ash observations, and (3) analyses meteorology. In addition, information on aggregation or other ash particle transformation processes would be useful.

Integration of AERMOD into EDMS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-06-22

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires the use of the Emissions and : Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) for air quality analysis involving aviation sources. : Dispersion in EDMS has previously been computed by CALINE3 and PAL2. With the :...

Estimation of the emission factors of PAHs by traffic with the model of atmospheric dispersion and deposition from heavy traffic road.

PubMed

Ozaki, N; Tokumitsu, H; Kojima, K; Kindaichi, T

2007-01-01

In order to consider the total atmospheric loadings of the PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) from traffic activities, the emission factors of PAHs were estimated and from the obtained emission factors and vehicle transportation statistics, total atmospheric loadings were integrated and the loadings into the water body were estimated on a regional scale. The atmospheric concentration of PAHs was measured at the roadside of a road with heavy traffic in the Hiroshima area in Japan. The samplings were conducted in summer and winter. Atmospheric particulate matters (fine particle, 0.6-7 microm; coarse particle, over 7 microm) and their PAH concentration were measured. Also, four major emission sources (gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions, tire and asphalt debris) were assumed for vehicle transportation activities, the chemical mass balance method was applied and the source partitioning at the roadside was estimated. Furthermore, the dispersion of atmospheric particles from the vehicles was modelled and the emission factors of the sources were determined by the comparison to the chemical mass balance results. Based on emission factors derived from the modelling, an atmospheric dispersion model of nationwide scale (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology - Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk assessment) was applied, and the atmospheric concentration and loading to the ground were calculated for the Hiroshima Bay watershed area.

A discontinuous Galerkin approach for conservative modeling of fully nonlinear and weakly dispersive wave transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifian, Mohammad Kazem; Kesserwani, Georges; Hassanzadeh, Yousef

2018-05-01

This work extends a robust second-order Runge-Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG2) method to solve the fully nonlinear and weakly dispersive flows, within a scope to simultaneously address accuracy, conservativeness, cost-efficiency and practical needs. The mathematical model governing such flows is based on a variant form of the Green-Naghdi (GN) equations decomposed as a hyperbolic shallow water system with an elliptic source term. Practical features of relevance (i.e. conservative modeling over irregular terrain with wetting and drying and local slope limiting) have been restored from an RKDG2 solver to the Nonlinear Shallow Water (NSW) equations, alongside new considerations to integrate elliptic source terms (i.e. via a fourth-order local discretization of the topography) and to enable local capturing of breaking waves (i.e. via adding a detector for switching off the dispersive terms). Numerical results are presented, demonstrating the overall capability of the proposed approach in achieving realistic prediction of nearshore wave processes involving both nonlinearity and dispersion effects within a single model.

Evaluation of the Combined AERCOARE/AERMOD Modeling Approach for Offshore Sources

EPA Science Inventory

ENVIRON conducted an evaluation of the combined AERCOARE/AERMOD (AERCOARE-MOD) modeling approach for offshore sources using tracer data from four field studies. AERCOARE processes overwater meteorological data for use by the AERMOD air quality dispersion model (EPA, 2004a). AERC...

Instantaneous and time-averaged dispersion and measurement models for estimation theory applications with elevated point source plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diamante, J. M.; Englar, T. S., Jr.; Jazwinski, A. H.

1977-01-01

Estimation theory, which originated in guidance and control research, is applied to the analysis of air quality measurements and atmospheric dispersion models to provide reliable area-wide air quality estimates. A method for low dimensional modeling (in terms of the estimation state vector) of the instantaneous and time-average pollutant distributions is discussed. In particular, the fluctuating plume model of Gifford (1959) is extended to provide an expression for the instantaneous concentration due to an elevated point source. Individual models are also developed for all parameters in the instantaneous and the time-average plume equations, including the stochastic properties of the instantaneous fluctuating plume.

Measurement and Modeling of Dispersive Pulse Propagation in Drawn Wire Waveguides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.; Kohl, Thomas W.; Rogers, Wayne P.

1995-01-01

An analytical model of dispersive pulse propagation in semi-infinite cylinders due to transient axially symmetric end conditions has been experimentally investigated. Specifically, the dispersive propagation of the first axially symmetric longitudinal mode in thin wire waveguides, which have ends in butt contact with longitudinal piezoelectric ultrasonic transducers, is examined. The method allows for prediction of a propagated waveform given a measured source waveform, together with the material properties of the cylinder. Alternatively, the source waveform can be extracted from measurement of the propagated waveform. The material properties required for implementation of the pulse propagation model are determined using guided wave phase velocity measurements. Hard tempered aluminum 1100 and 304 stainless steel wires, with 127, 305, and 406 micron diam., were examined. In general, the drawn wires were found to behave as transversely isotropic media.

Measurement and modeling of dispersive pulse propagation in draw wire waveguides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.; Kohl, Thomas W.; Rogers, Wayne P.

1995-01-01

An analytical model of dispersive pulse propagation in semi-infinite cylinders due to transient axially symmetric end conditions has been experimentally investigated. Specifically, the dispersive propagation of the first axially symmetric longitudinal mode in thin wire waveguides, which have ends in butt contact with longitudinal piezoelectric ultrasonic transducers, is examined. The method allows for prediction of a propagated waveform given a measured source waveform, together with the material properties of the cylinder. Alternatively, the source waveform can be extracted from measurement of the propagated waveform. The material properties required for implementation of the pulse propagation model are determined using guided wave phase velocity measurements. Hard tempered aluminum 1100 and 304 stainless steel wires, with 127, 305, and 406 micron diam., were examined. In general, the drawn wires were found to behave as transversely isotropic media.

A stochastic-advective transport model for NAPL dissolution and degradation in non-uniform flows in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, T. P.; Govindaraju, Rao S.

2006-10-01

Remediation schemes for contaminated sites are often evaluated to assess their potential for source zone reduction of mass, or treatment of the contaminant between the source and a control plane (CP) to achieve regulatory limits. In this study, we utilize a stochastic stream tube model to explain the behavior of breakthrough curves (BTCs) across a CP. At the local scale, mass dissolution at the source is combined with an advection model with first-order decay for the dissolved plume. Field-scale averaging is then employed to account for spatial variation in mass within the source zone, and variation in the velocity field. Under the assumption of instantaneous mass transfer from the source to the moving liquid, semi-analytical expressions for the BTC and temporal moments are developed, followed by derivation of expressions for effective velocity, dispersion, and degradation coefficients using the method of moments. It is found that degradation strongly influences the behavior of moments and the effective parameters. While increased heterogeneity in the velocity field results in increased dispersion, degradation causes the center of mass of the plume to shift to earlier times, and reduces the dispersion of the BTC by lowering the concentrations in the tail. Modified definitions of effective parameters are presented for degrading solutes to account for the normalization constant (zeroth moment) that keeps changing with time or distance to the CP. It is shown that anomalous dispersion can result for high degradation rates combined with wide variation in velocity fluctuations. Implications of model results on estimating cleanup times and fulfillment of regulatory limits are discussed. Relating mass removal at the source to flux reductions past a control plane is confounded by many factors. Increased heterogeneity in velocity fields causes mass fluxes past a control plane to persist, however, aggressive remediation between the source and CP can reduce these fluxes.

Modelling of deposited black carbon with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART in backward mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckhardt, Sabine; Cassiani, Massimo; Sollum, Espen; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas

2017-04-01

Lagrangian particle dispersion models are popular tools to simulate the dispersion of trace gases, aerosols or radionuclides in the atmosphere. If they consider only linear processes, they are self-adjoint, i.e., they can be run forward and backward in time without changes to the source code. Backward simulations are very efficient if the number of receptors is smaller than the number of sources, and they are well suited to establish source-receptor (s-r) relationships for measurements of various trace substances in air. However, not only the air concentrations are of interest, but also the s-r relationships for deposition are important for interpreting measurement data. E.g., deposition of dust is measured regularly in ice cores, partly also as a proxy to understand changes in aridity in dust source regions. Contamination of snow by black carbon (BC) aerosols has recently become a hot topic because of the potential impact of BC on the snow albedo. To interpret such deposition measurements and study the sources of the deposited substance, it would be convenient to have a model that is capable of efficient s-r relationship calculations for such types of measurements. We present here the implementation of such an algorithm into the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, and test the new scheme by comparisons with results from forward simulations as well as comparisons with measurements. As an application, we analyse source regions for elemental carbon (EC) measured in snow over the years 2014-2016 in the Russian Arctic. Simulations using an annual constant black carbon inventory based on ECLIPSE V5 and GFED (Global Fire Emission Database), have been performed. The meteorological data used in the simulation are 3 hourly operational data from the European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on a 1 degree grid resolution and 138 vertical levels. The model is able to capture very well the measured concentrations. Gas flaring and residential/commercial combustion can be identified as the most important sources. High concentrations measured near the Ob River (up to 170 ng g-1) can be associated with air masses coming from Europe.

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers.

PubMed

Devaux, C; Lavigne, C; Austerlitz, F; Klein, E K

2007-02-01

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.

Criteria for Yielding of Dispersion-Strengthened Alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ansell, G. S.; Lenel, F. V.

1960-01-01

A dislocation model is presented in order to account for the yield behavior of alloys with a finely dispersed second-phase. The criteria for yielding used in the model, is that appreciable yielding occurs in these alloys when the shear stress due to piled-up groups of dislocations is sufficient to fracture or plastically deform the dispersed second-phase particles, relieving the back stress on the dislocation sources. Equations derived on the basis of this model, predict that the yield stress of the alloys varies as the reciprocal square root of the mean free path between dispersed particles. Experimental data is presented for several SAP-Type alloys, precipitation-hardened alloys and steels which are in good agreement with the yield strength variation as a function of dispersion spacing predicted by this theoretical treatment.

Predicting air quality near roadways through the application of a Gaussian Puff Model to moving sources

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-19

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently recommends the use of CALINE3 or CAL3QHC for modeling the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) near roadways. These models treat vehicles as part of a line source such that the emissions are homogeneo...

A Nonlinear Regression Model Estimating Single Source Concentrations of Primary and Secondarily Formed 2.5

EPA Science Inventory

Various approaches and tools exist to estimate local and regional PM_2.5 impacts from a single emissions source, ranging from simple screening techniques to Gaussian based dispersion models and complex grid-based Eulerian photochemical transport models. These approache...

Turbulent Plume Dispersion over Two-dimensional Idealized Urban Street Canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. C. C.; Liu, C. H.

2012-04-01

Human activities are the primary pollutant sources which degrade the living quality in the current era of dense and compact cities. A simple and reasonably accurate pollutant dispersion model is helpful to reduce pollutant concentrations in city or neighborhood scales by refining architectural design or urban planning. The conventional method to estimate the pollutant concentration from point/line sources is the Gaussian plume model using empirical dispersion coefficients. Its accuracy is pretty well for applying to rural areas. However, the dispersion coefficients only account for the atmospheric stability and streamwise distance that often overlook the roughness of urban surfaces. Large-scale buildings erected in urban areas significantly modify the surface roughness that in turn affects the pollutant transport in the urban canopy layer (UCL). We hypothesize that the aerodynamic resistance is another factor governing the dispersion coefficient in the UCL. This study is thus conceived to study the effects of urban roughness on pollutant dispersion coefficients and the plume behaviors. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) are carried out to examine the plume dispersion from a ground-level pollutant source over idealized 2D street canyons in neutral stratification. Computations with a wide range of aspect ratios (ARs), including skimming flow to isolated flow regimes, are conducted. The vertical profiles of pollutant distribution for different values of friction factor are compared that all reach a self-similar Gaussian shape. Preliminary results show that the pollutant dispersion is closely related to the friction factor. For relatively small roughness, the factors of dispersion coefficient vary linearly with the friction factor until the roughness is over a certain level. When the friction factor is large, its effect on the dispersion coefficient is less significant. Since the linear region covers at least one-third of the full range of friction factor in our empirical analysis, urban roughness is a major factor for dispersion coefficient. The downstream air quality could then be a function of both atmospheric stability and urban roughness.

BDW-1

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This data set is associated with the results found in the journal article: Perry et al, 2016. Characterization of pollutant dispersion near elongated buildings based on wind tunnel simulations, Atmospheric Environment, 142, 286-295.The paper presents a wind tunnel study of the effects of elongated rectangular buildings on the dispersion of pollutants from nearby stacks. The study examines the influence of source location, building aspect ratio, and wind direction on pollutant dispersion with the goal of developing improved algorithms within dispersion models. The paper also examines the current AERMOD/PRIME modeling capabilities compared to wind tunnel observations. Differences in the amount of plume material entrained in the wake region downwind of a building for various source locations and source heights are illustrated with vertical and lateral concentration profiles. These profiles were parameterized using the Gaussian equation and show the influence of building/source configurations on those parameters. When the building is oriented at 4500b0 to the approach flow, for example, the effective plume height descends more rapidly than it does for a perpendicular building, enhancing the resulting surface concentrations in the wake region. Buildings at angles to the wind cause a cross-wind shift in the location of the plume resulting from a lateral mean flow established in the building wake. These and other effects that are not well represented in many dispersio

Modeling the combined influence of host dispersal and waterborne fate and transport on pathogen spread in complex landscapes

PubMed Central

Lu, Ding; McDowell, Julia Z.; Davis, George M.; Spear, Robert C.; Remais, Justin V.

2012-01-01

Environmental models, often applied to questions on the fate and transport of chemical hazards, have recently become important in tracing certain environmental pathogens to their upstream sources of contamination. These tools, such as first order decay models applied to contaminants in surface waters, offer promise for quantifying the fate and transport of pathogens with multiple environmental stages and/or multiple hosts, in addition to those pathogens whose environmental stages are entirely waterborne. Here we consider the fate and transport capabilities of the human schistosome Schistosoma japonicum, which exhibits two waterborne stages and is carried by an amphibious intermediate snail host. We present experimentally-derived dispersal estimates for the intermediate snail host and fate and transport estimates for the passive downstream diffusion of cercariae, the waterborne, human-infective parasite stage. Using a one dimensional advective transport model exhibiting first-order decay, we simulate the added spatial reach and relative increase in cercarial concentrations that dispersing snail hosts contribute to downstream sites. Simulation results suggest that snail dispersal can substantially increase the concentrations of cercariae reaching downstream locations, relative to no snail dispersal, effectively putting otherwise isolated downstream sites at increased risk of exposure to cercariae from upstream sources. The models developed here can be applied to other infectious diseases with multiple life-stages and hosts, and have important implications for targeted ecological control of disease spread. PMID:23162675

A model for dispersion from area sources in convective turbulence. [for air pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, G.; Panofsky, H. A.; Zeman, O.

1977-01-01

Four independent estimates of the vertical distribution of the eddy coefficient for dispersion of a passive contaminant from an extensive area source in a convective layer have been presented. The estimates were based on the following methods: (1) a second-order closure prediction, (2) field data of pollutant concentrations over Los Angeles, (3) lab measurements of particle dispersion, and (4) assumption of equality between momentum and mass transfer coefficients in the free convective limit. It is suggested that K-values estimated both from second-order closure theory and from Los Angeles measurements are systematically underestimated.

Overview of major hazards. Part 2: Source term; dispersion; combustion; blast, missiles, venting; fire; radiation; runaway reactions; toxic substances; dust explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilain, J.

Approaches to major hazard assessment and prediction are reviewed. Source term: (phenomenology/modeling of release, influence on early stages of dispersion); dispersion (atmospheric advection, diffusion and deposition, emphasis on dense/cold gases); combustion (flammable clouds and mists covering flash fires, deflagration, transition to detonation; mostly unconfined/partly confined situations); blast formation, propagation, interaction with structures; catastrophic fires (pool fires, torches and fireballs; highly reactive substances) runaway reactions; features of more general interest; toxic substances, excluding toxicology; and dust explosions (phenomenology and protective measures) are discussed.

Molecular dispersion spectroscopy for chemical sensing using chirped mid-infrared quantum cascade laser.

PubMed

Wysocki, Gerard; Weidmann, Damien

2010-12-06

A spectroscopic method of molecular detection based on dispersion measurements using a frequency-chirped laser source is presented. An infrared quantum cascade laser emitting around 1912 cm(-1) is used as a tunable spectroscopic source to measure dispersion that occurs in the vicinity of molecular ro-vibrational transitions. The sample under study is a mixture of nitric oxide in dry nitrogen. Two experimental configurations based on a coherent detection scheme are investigated and discussed. The theoretical models, which describe the observed spectral signals, are developed and verified experimentally. The method is particularly relevant to optical sensing based on mid-infrared quantum cascade lasers as the high chirp rates available with those sources can significantly enhance the magnitude of the measured dispersion signals. The method relies on heterodyne beatnote frequency measurements and shows high immunity to variations in the optical power received by the photodetector.

Biomonitoring of airborne particulate matter emitted from a cement plant and comparison with dispersion modelling results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abril, Gabriela A.; Wannaz, Eduardo D.; Mateos, Ana C.; Pignata, María L.

2014-01-01

The influence of a cement plant that incinerates industrial waste on the air quality of a region in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, was assessed by means of biomonitoring studies (effects of immission) and atmospheric dispersion (effects of emission) of PM10 with the application of the ISC3 model (Industrial Source Complex) developed by the USEPA (Environmental Protection Agency). For the biomonitoring studies, samples from the epiphyte plant Tillandsia capillaris Ruíz & Pav. f. capillaris were transplanted to the vicinities of the cement plant in order to determine the physiological damage and heavy metal accumulation (Ca, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb). For the application of the ISC3 model, point and area sources from the cement plant were considered to obtain average PM10 concentration results from the biomonitoring exposure period. This model permitted it to be determined that the emissions from the cement plant (point and area sources) were confined to the vicinities, without significant dispersion in the study area. This was also observed in the biomonitoring study, which identified Ca, Cd and Pb, pH and electric conductivity (EC) as biomarkers of this cement plant. Vehicular traffic emissions and soil re-suspension could be observed in the biomonitors, giving a more complete scenario. In this study, biomonitoring studies along with the application of atmospheric dispersion models, allowed the atmospheric pollution to be assessed in more detail.

Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of an atmospheric dispersion model with an improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, G.; Chino, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Terada, H.; Ota, M.; Nagai, H.; Kajino, M.; Draxler, R.; Hort, M. C.; Malo, A.; Torii, T.; Sanada, Y.

2015-01-01

Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate the detailed atmospheric releases during the accident using a reverse estimation method which calculates the release rates of radionuclides by comparing measurements of air concentration of a radionuclide or its dose rate in the environment with the ones calculated by atmospheric and oceanic transport, dispersion and deposition models. The atmospheric and oceanic models used are WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN-FDM (Finite difference oceanic dispersion model), both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fog-water depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation, and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to the FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (safety relief valve) was opened three times at Unit 2, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates. The simulation by WSPEEDI-II using the new source term reproduced the local and regional patterns of cumulative surface deposition of total 131I and 137Cs and air dose rate obtained by airborne surveys. The new source term was also tested using three atmospheric dispersion models (Modèle Lagrangien de Dispersion de Particules d'ordre zéro: MLDP0, Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model: HYSPLIT, and Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment: NAME) for regional and global calculations, and the calculated results showed good agreement with observed air concentration and surface deposition of 137Cs in eastern Japan.

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Examination of climatological wind patterns and simulated pollen dispersion in a complex island environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viner, Brian J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Westgate, Mark E.

2017-08-01

Complex terrain creates small-scale circulations which affect pollen dispersion but may be missed by meteorological observing networks and coarse-grid meteorological models. On volcanic islands, these circulations result from differing rates of surface heating between land and sea as well as rugged terrain. We simulated the transport of bentgrass, ryegrass, and maize pollen from 30 sources within the agricultural regions of the Hawaiian island Kaua'i during climatological conditions spanning season conditions and the La Niña, El Niño, and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Both pollen size and source location had major effects on predicted dispersion over and near the island. Three patterns of pollen dispersion were identified in response to prevailing wind conditions: southwest winds transported pollen inland, funneling pollen grains through valleys; east winds transported pollen over the ocean, with dispersive tails for the smallest pollen grains following the mean wind and extending as far as the island of Ni'ihau 35 km away; and northeast winds moved pollen inland counter to the prevailing flow due to a sea breeze circulation that formed over the source region. These results are the first to predict the interactions between complex island terrain and local climatology on grass pollen dispersion. They demonstrate how numerical modeling can provide guidance for field trials by illustrating the common flow regimes present in complex terrain, allowing field trials to focus on areas where successful sampling is more likely to occur.

Evaluation of the inverse dispersion modelling method for estimating ammonia multi-source emissions using low-cost long time averaging sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loubet, Benjamin; Carozzi, Marco

2015-04-01

Tropospheric ammonia (NH3) is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and its deposition is a threat for the environment (ecosystem eutrophication, soil acidification and reduction in species biodiversity). Most of the NH3 global emissions derive from agriculture, mainly from livestock manure (storage and field application) but also from nitrogen-based fertilisers. Inverse dispersion modelling has been widely used to infer emission sources from a homogeneous source of known geometry. When the emission derives from different sources inside of the measured footprint, the emission should be treated as multi-source problem. This work aims at estimating whether multi-source inverse dispersion modelling can be used to infer NH3 emissions from different agronomic treatment, composed of small fields (typically squares of 25 m side) located near to each other, using low-cost NH3 measurements (diffusion samplers). To do that, a numerical experiment was designed with a combination of 3 x 3 square field sources (625 m2), and a set of sensors placed at the centre of each field at several heights as well as at 200 m away from the sources in each cardinal directions. The concentration at each sensor location was simulated with a forward Lagrangian Stochastic (WindTrax) and a Gaussian-like (FIDES) dispersion model. The concentrations were averaged over various integration times (3 hours to 28 days), to mimic the diffusion sampler behaviour with several sampling strategy. The sources were then inferred by inverse modelling using the averaged concentration and the same models in backward mode. The sources patterns were evaluated using a soil-vegetation-atmosphere model (SurfAtm-NH3) that incorporates the response of the NH3 emissions to surface temperature. A combination emission patterns (constant, linear decreasing, exponential decreasing and Gaussian type) and strengths were used to evaluate the uncertainty of the inversion method. Each numerical experiment covered a period of 28 days. The meteorological dataset of the fluxnet FR-Gri site (Grignon, FR) in 2008 was employed. Several sensor heights were tested, from 0.25 m to 2 m. The multi-source inverse problem was solved based on several sampling and field trial strategies: considering 1 or 2 heights over each field, considering the background concentration as known or unknown, and considering block-repetitions in the field set-up (3 repetitions). The inverse modelling approach demonstrated to be adapted for discriminating large differences in NH3 emissions from small agronomic plots using integrating sensors. The method is sensitive to sensor heights. The uncertainties and systematic biases are evaluated and discussed.

Updating source term and atmospheric dispersion simulations for the dose reconstruction in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuduki, Katsunori; Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu; Furuno, Akiko; Akari, Shusaku

2017-09-01

In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in Japan, especially for the early phase of the accident when no measured data are available for that purpose, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment are reconstructed by computer simulations. In this study, by refining the source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere and modifying the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM), the atmospheric dispersion simulation of radioactive materials is improved. Then, a database of spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the air and on the ground surface is developed from the output of the simulation. This database is used in other studies for the dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the FDNPS accident. By the improvement of the ATDM simulation to use a new meteorological model and sophisticated deposition scheme, the ATDM simulations reproduced well the 137Cs and 131I deposition patterns. For the better reproducibility of dispersion processes, further refinement of the source term was carried out by optimizing it to the improved ATDM simulation by using new monitoring data.

Wind-tunnel Modelling of Dispersion from a Scalar Area Source in Urban-Like Roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascheke, Frauke; Barlow, Janet F.; Robins, Alan

2008-01-01

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T / U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness.

Spatial seed and pollen games: dispersal, sex allocation, and the evolution of dioecy.

PubMed

Fromhage, Lutz; Kokko, Hanna

2010-09-01

The evolutionary forces shaping within- and across-species variation in the investment in male and female sex function are still incompletely understood. Despite earlier suggestions that in plants the evolution or cosexuality vs. dioecy, as well as sex allocation among cosexuals, is affected by seed and pollen dispersal, no formal model has explicitly used dispersal distances to address this problem. Here, we present a game-theory model as well as a simulation study that fills in this gap. Our model predicts that dioecy should evolve if seeds and pollen disperse widely and that sex allocation among cosexuals should be biased towards whichever sex function produces more widely dispersing units. Dispersal limitations stabilize cosexuality by reinforcing competition between spatially clumped dispersal units from the same source, leading to saturating fitness returns that render sexual specialization unprofitable. However, limited pollen dispersal can also increase the risk of selfing, thus potentially selecting for dioecy as an outbreeding mechanism. Finally, we refute a recent claim that cosexuals should always invest equally in both sex functions.

Dispersal kernel estimation: A comparison of empirical and modelled particle dispersion in a coastal marine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrycik, Janelle M.; Chassé, Joël; Ruddick, Barry R.; Taggart, Christopher T.

2013-11-01

Early life-stage dispersal influences recruitment and is of significance in explaining the distribution and connectivity of marine species. Motivations for quantifying dispersal range from biodiversity conservation to the design of marine reserves and the mitigation of species invasions. Here we compare estimates of real particle dispersion in a coastal marine environment with similar estimates provided by hydrodynamic modelling. We do so by using a system of magnetically attractive particles (MAPs) and a magnetic-collector array that provides measures of Lagrangian dispersion based on the time-integration of MAPs dispersing through the array. MAPs released as a point source in a coastal marine location dispersed through the collector array over a 5-7 d period. A virtual release and observed (real-time) environmental conditions were used in a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the dispersal of virtual particles (VPs). The number of MAPs captured throughout the collector array and the number of VPs that passed through each corresponding model location were enumerated and compared. Although VP dispersal reflected several aspects of the observed MAP dispersal, the comparisons demonstrated model sensitivity to the small-scale (random-walk) particle diffusivity parameter (Kp). The one-dimensional dispersal kernel for the MAPs had an e-folding scale estimate in the range of 5.19-11.44 km, while those from the model simulations were comparable at 1.89-6.52 km, and also demonstrated sensitivity to Kp. Variations among comparisons are related to the value of Kp used in modelling and are postulated to be related to MAP losses from the water column and (or) shear dispersion acting on the MAPs; a process that is constrained in the model. Our demonstration indicates a promising new way of 1) quantitatively and empirically estimating the dispersal kernel in aquatic systems, and 2) quantitatively assessing and (or) improving regional hydrodynamic models.

MOVES-Matrix and distributed computing for microscale line source dispersion analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Haobing; Xu, Xiaodan; Rodgers, Michael O; Xu, Yanzhi Ann; Guensler, Randall L

2017-07-01

MOVES and AERMOD are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended models for use in project-level transportation conformity and hot-spot analysis. However, the structure and algorithms involved in running MOVES make analyses cumbersome and time-consuming. Likewise, the modeling setup process, including extensive data requirements and required input formats, in AERMOD lead to a high potential for analysis error in dispersion modeling. This study presents a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix, a high-performance emission modeling tool, with the microscale dispersion models CALINE4 and AERMOD. MOVES-Matrix was prepared by iteratively running MOVES across all possible iterations of vehicle source-type, fuel, operating conditions, and environmental parameters to create a huge multi-dimensional emission rate lookup matrix. AERMOD and CALINE4 are connected with MOVES-Matrix in a distributed computing cluster using a series of Python scripts. This streamlined system built on MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as using MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than using the MOVES graphical user interface. Because AERMOD requires detailed meteorological input, which is difficult to obtain, this study also recommends using CALINE4 as a screening tool for identifying the potential area that may exceed air quality standards before using AERMOD (and identifying areas that are exceedingly unlikely to exceed air quality standards). CALINE4 worst case method yields consistently higher concentration results than AERMOD for all comparisons in this paper, as expected given the nature of the meteorological data employed. The paper demonstrates a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix with the CALINE4 and AERMOD. This streamlined system generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as traditional way to use MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, which are regulatory models approved by the U.S. EPA for conformity analysis, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than implementing the MOVES model. We highlighted the potentially significant benefit of using CALINE4 as screening tool for identifying potential area that may exceeds air quality standards before using AERMOD, which requires much more meteorology input than CALINE4.

Spatial variation in anthropogenic mortality induces a source-sink system in a hunted mesopredator.

PubMed

Minnie, Liaan; Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Kerley, Graham I H

2018-04-01

Lethal carnivore management is a prevailing strategy to reduce livestock predation. Intensity of lethal management varies according to land-use, where carnivores are more intensively hunted on farms relative to reserves. Variations in hunting intensity may result in the formation of a source-sink system where carnivores disperse from high-density to low-density areas. Few studies quantify dispersal between supposed sources and sinks-a fundamental requirement for source-sink systems. We used the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) as a model to determine if heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality induces a source-sink system. We analysed 12 microsatellite loci from 554 individuals from lightly hunted and previously unhunted reserves, as well as heavily hunted livestock- and game farms. Bayesian genotype assignment showed that jackal populations displayed a hierarchical population structure. We identified two genetically distinct populations at the regional level and nine distinct subpopulations at the local level, with each cluster corresponding to distinct land-use types separated by various dispersal barriers. Migration, estimated using Bayesian multilocus genotyping, between reserves and farms was asymmetric and heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality induced source-sink dynamics via compensatory immigration. Additionally some heavily hunted populations also acted as source populations, exporting individuals to other heavily hunted populations. This indicates that heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality results in the formation of a complex series of interconnected sources and sinks. Thus, lethal management of mesopredators may not be an effective long-term strategy in reducing livestock predation, as dispersal and, more importantly, compensatory immigration may continue to affect population reduction efforts as long as dispersal from other areas persists.

Stochastic analysis of concentration field in a wake region.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F; Elmi, Abdirashid A

2011-02-01

Identifying geographic locations in urban areas from which air pollutants enter the atmosphere is one of the most important information needed to develop effective mitigation strategies for pollution control. Stochastic analysis is a powerful tool that can be used for estimating concentration fluctuation in plume dispersion in a wake region around buildings. Only few studies have been devoted to evaluate applications of stochastic analysis to pollutant dispersion in an urban area. This study was designed to investigate the concentration fields in the wake region using obstacle model such as an isolated building model. We measured concentration fluctuations at centerline of various downwind distances from the source, and different heights with the frequency of 1 KHz. Concentration fields were analyzed stochastically, using the probability density functions (pdf). Stochastic analysis was performed on the concentration fluctuation and the pdf of mean concentration, fluctuation intensity, and crosswind mean-plume dispersion. The pdf of the concentration fluctuation data have shown a significant non-Gaussian behavior. The lognormal distribution appeared to be the best fit to the shape of concentration measured in the boundary layer. We observed that the plume dispersion pdf near the source was shorter than the plume dispersion far from the source. Our findings suggest that the use of stochastic technique in complex building environment can be a powerful tool to help understand the distribution and location of air pollutants.

Modeling tidal exchange and dispersion in Boston Harbor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, Richard P.; Butman, Bradford

1992-01-01

Tidal dispersion and the horizontal exchange of water between Boston Harbor and the surrounding ocean are examined with a high-resolution (200 m) depth-averaged numerical model. The strongly varying bathymetry and coastline geometry of the harbor generate complex spatial patterns in the modeled tidal currents which are verified by shipboard acoustic Doppler surveys. Lagrangian exchange experiments demonstrate that tidal currents rapidly exchange and mix material near the inlets of the harbor due to asymmetry in the ebb/flood response. This tidal mixing zone extends roughly a tidal excursion from the inlets and plays an important role in the overall flushing of the harbor. Because the tides can only efficiently mix material in this limited region, however, harbor flushing must be considered a two step process: rapid exchange in the tidal mixing zone, followed by flushing of the tidal mixing zone by nontidal residual currents. Estimates of embayment flushing based on tidal calculations alone therefore can significantly overestimate the flushing time that would be expected under typical environmental conditions. Particle-release simulations from point sources also demonstrate that while the tides efficiently exchange material in the vicinity of the inlets, the exact nature of dispersion from point sources is extremely sensitive to the timing and location of the release, and the distribution of particles is streaky and patchlike. This suggests that high-resolution modeling of dispersion from point sources in these regions must be performed explicitly and cannot be parameterized as a plume with Gaussian-spreading in a larger scale flow field.

Landscape characteristics of Rhizophora mangle forests and propagule deposition in coastal environments of Florida (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sengupta, R.; Middleton, B.; Yan, C.; Zuro, M.; Hartman, H.

2005-01-01

Field dispersal studies are seldom conducted at regional scales even though reliable information on mid-range dispersal distance is essential for models of colonization. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential distance of dispersal of Rhizophora mangle propagules by comparing deposition density with landscape characteristics of mangrove forests. Propagule density was estimated at various distances to mangrove sources (R. mangle) on beaches in southwestern Florida in both high-and low-energy environments, either facing open gulf waters vs. sheltered, respectively. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems were used to identify source forests and to determine their landscape characteristics (forest size and distance to deposition area) for the regression analyses. Our results indicated that increasing density of propagules stranded on beaches was related negatively to the distance of the deposition sites from the nearest stands of R. mangle and that deposition was greatly diminished 2 km or more from the source. Measures of fragmentation such as the area of the R. mangle forests were related to propagule deposition but only in low-energy environments. Our results suggest that geographic models involving the colonization of coastal mangrove systems should include dispersal dynamics at mid-range scales, i.e., for our purposes here, beyond the local scale of the forest and up to 5 km distant. Studies of mangrove propagule deposition at various spatial scales are key to understanding regeneration limitations in natural gaps and restoration areas. Therefore, our study of mid-range propagule dispersal has broad application to plant ecology, restoration, and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Integration of measurements with atmospheric dispersion models: Source term estimation for dispersal of (239)Pu due to non-nuclear detonation of high explosive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, L. L.; Harvey, T. F.; Freis, R. P.; Pitovranov, S. E.; Chernokozhin, E. V.

1992-10-01

The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on our knowledge of the source term characteristics and, in the case when the radioactivity is condensed on particles, the particle size distribution, all of which are generally poorly known. This paper reports on the development of a numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling. This results in a more accurate particle-size distribution and particle injection height estimation when compared with measurements of high explosive dispersal of (239)Pu. The estimation model is based on a non-linear least squares regression scheme coupled with the ARAC three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of ADPIC model input parameters such as the ADPIC particle size mean aerodynamic diameter, the geometric standard deviation, and largest size. Additionally we estimate an optimal 'coupling coefficient' between the particles and an explosive cloud rise model. The experimental data are taken from the Clean Slate 1 field experiment conducted during 1963 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. The regression technique optimizes the agreement between the measured and model predicted concentrations of (239)Pu by varying the model input parameters within their respective ranges of uncertainties. The technique generally estimated the measured concentrations within a factor of 1.5, with the worst estimate being within a factor of 5, very good in view of the complexity of the concentration measurements, the uncertainties associated with the meteorological data, and the limitations of the models. The best fit also suggest a smaller mean diameter and a smaller geometric standard deviation on the particle size as well as a slightly weaker particle to cloud coupling than previously reported.

Development of a reactive-dispersive plume model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyun S.; Kim, Yong H.; Song, Chul H.

2017-04-01

A reactive-dispersive plume model (RDPM) was developed in this study. The RDPM can consider two main components of large-scale point source plume: i) turbulent dispersion and ii) photochemical reactions. In order to evaluate the simulation performance of newly developed RDPM, the comparisons between the model-predicted and observed mixing ratios were made using the TexAQS II 2006 (Texas Air Quality Study II 2006) power-plant experiment data. Statistical analyses show good correlation (0.61≤R≤0.92), and good agreement with the Index of Agreement (0.70≤R≤0.95). The chemical NOx lifetimes for two power-plant plumes (Monticello and Welsh power plants) were also estimated.

Development and testing of meteorology and air dispersion models for Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M. D.; Brown, M. J.; Cruz, X.; Sosa, G.; Streit, G.

Los Alamos National Laboratory and Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo are completing a joint study of options for improving air quality in Mexico City. We have modified a three-dimensional, prognostic, higher-order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation (HOTMAC) and a Monte Carlo dispersion and transport model (RAPTAD) to treat domains that include an urbanized area. We used the meteorological model to drive models which describe the photochemistry and air transport and dispersion. The photochemistry modeling is described in a separate paper. We tested the model against routine measurements and those of a major field program. During the field program, measurements included: (1) lidar measurements of aerosol transport and dispersion, (2) aircraft measurements of winds, turbulence, and chemical species aloft, (3) aircraft measurements of skin temperatures, and (4) Tethersonde measurements of winds and ozone. We modified the meteorological model to include provisions for time-varying synoptic-scale winds, adjustments for local wind effects, and detailed surface-coverage descriptions. We developed a new method to define mixing-layer heights based on model outputs. The meteorology and dispersion models were able to provide reasonable representations of the measurements and to define the sources of some of the major uncertainties in the model-measurement comparisons.

A GIS-based atmospheric dispersion model for pollutants emitted by complex source areas.

PubMed

Teggi, Sergio; Costanzini, Sofia; Ghermandi, Grazia; Malagoli, Carlotta; Vinceti, Marco

2018-01-01

Gaussian dispersion models are widely used to simulate the concentrations and deposition fluxes of pollutants emitted by source areas. Very often, the calculation time limits the number of sources and receptors and the geometry of the sources must be simple and without holes. This paper presents CAREA, a new GIS-based Gaussian model for complex source areas. CAREA was coded in the Python language, and is largely based on a simplified formulation of the very popular and recognized AERMOD model. The model allows users to define in a GIS environment thousands of gridded or scattered receptors and thousands of complex sources with hundreds of vertices and holes. CAREA computes ground level, or near ground level, concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of pollutants. The input/output and the runs of the model can be completely managed in GIS environment (e.g. inside a GIS project). The paper presents the CAREA formulation and its applications to very complex test cases. The tests shows that the processing time are satisfactory and that the definition of sources and receptors and the output retrieval are quite easy in a GIS environment. CAREA and AERMOD are compared using simple and reproducible test cases. The comparison shows that CAREA satisfactorily reproduces AERMOD simulations and is considerably faster than AERMOD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

OCD: The offshore and coastal dispersion model. Volume 2. Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiCristofaro, D.C.; Hanna, S.R.

1989-11-01

The Offshore and Coastal Dispersion (OCD) Model has been developed to simulate the effect of offshore emissions from point, area, or line sources on the air quality of coastal regions. The OCD model was adapted from the EPA guideline model MPTER (EPA, 1980). Modifications were made to incorporate overwater plume transport and dispersion as well as changes that occur as the plume crosses the shoreline. This is a revised OCD model, the fourth version to date. The volume is an appendices for the OCD documentation, included are three appendices: Appendix A the OCD computer program, Appendix B an Analysis Post-processor,more » Appendix C Offshore Meteorological data Collection Instrumentation, also included are general References.« less

CityFlux perfluorocarbon tracer experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersson, F. K.; Martin, D.; White, I. R.; Henshaw, S. J.; Nickless, G.; Longley, I.; Percival, C. J.; Gallagher, M.; Shallcross, D. E.

2010-01-01

In June 2006, two perfluorocarbon tracer experiments were conducted in central Manchester UK as part of the CityFlux campaign. The main aim was to investigate vertical dispersion in an urban area during convective conditions, but dispersion mechanisms within the street network were also studied. Paired receptors were used in most cases where one receptor was located at ground level and one at roof level. One receptor was located on the roof of Portland Tower which is an 80 m high building in central Manchester. Source receptor distances in the two experiments varied between 120 and 600 m. The results reveal that maximum concentration was sometimes found at roof level rather than at ground level implying the effectiveness of convective forces on dispersion. The degree of vertical dispersion was found to be dependent on source receptor distance as well as on building height in proximity to the release site. Evidence of flow channelling in a street canyon was also found. Both a Gaussian profile and a street network model were applied and the results show that the urban topography may lead to highly effective flow channelling which therefore may be a very important dispersion mechanism should the right meteorological conditions prevail. The experimental results from this campaign have also been compared with a simple urban dispersion model that was developed during the DAPPLE framework and show good agreement with this. The results presented here are some of the first published regarding vertical dispersion. More tracer experiments are needed in order to further characterise vertical concentration profiles and their dependence on, for instance, atmospheric stability. The impact of urban topography on pollutant dispersion is important to focus on in future tracer experiments in order to improve performance of models as well as for our understanding of the relationship between air quality and public health.

CityFlux perfluorocarbon tracer experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersson, F. K.; Martin, D.; White, I. R.; Henshaw, S. J.; Nickless, G.; Longley, I.; Percival, C. J.; Gallagher, M.; Shallcross, D. E.

2010-07-01

In June 2006, two perfluorocarbon tracer experiments were conducted in central Manchester UK as part of the CityFlux campaign. The main aim was to investigate vertical dispersion in an urban area during convective conditions, but dispersion mechanisms within the street network were also studied. Paired receptors were used in most cases where one receptor was located at ground level and one at roof level. One receptor was located on the roof of Portland Tower which is an 80 m high building in central Manchester. Source receptor distances in the two experiments varied between 120 and 600 m. The results reveal that maximum concentration was sometimes found at roof level rather than at ground level implying the effectiveness of convective forces on dispersion. The degree of vertical dispersion was found to be dependent on source receptor distance as well as on building height in proximity to the release site. Evidence of flow channelling in a street canyon was also found. Both a Gaussian profile and a street network model were applied and the results show that the urban topography may lead to highly effective flow channelling which therefore may be a very important dispersion mechanism should the right meteorological conditions prevail. The experimental results from this campaign have also been compared with a simple urban dispersion model that was developed during the DAPPLE framework and show good agreement with this. The results presented here are some of the first published regarding vertical dispersion. More tracer experiments are needed in order to further characterise vertical concentration profiles and their dependence on, for instance, atmospheric stability. The impact of urban topography on pollutant dispersion is important to focus on in future tracer experiments in order to improve performance of models as well as for our understanding of the relationship between air quality and public health.

Interaction between air pollution dispersion and residential heating demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Dungan, J.

The effect of the short-term correlation of a specific emission (sulfur dioxide) from residential space heating, with air pollution dispersion rates on the accuracy of model estimates of urban air pollution on a seasonal or annual basis is analyzed. Hourly climatological and residential emission estimates for six U.S. cities and a simplified area source-dispersion model based on a circular receptor grid are used. The effect on annual average concentration estimations is found to be slight (approximately + or - 12 percent), while the maximum hourly concentrations are shown to vary considerably more, since maximum heat demand and worst-case dispersion aremore » not coincident. Accounting for the correlations between heating demand and dispersion makes possible a differentiation in air pollution potential between coastal and interior cities.« less

Drastic reduction in the growth temperature of graphene on copper via enhanced London dispersion force

PubMed Central

Choi, Jin-Ho; Li, Zhancheng; Cui, Ping; Fan, Xiaodong; Zhang, Hui; Zeng, Changgan; Zhang, Zhenyu

2013-01-01

London dispersion force is ubiquitous in nature, and is increasingly recognized to be an important factor in a variety of surface processes. Here we demonstrate unambiguously the decisive role of London dispersion force in non-equilibrium growth of ordered nanostructures on metal substrates using aromatic source molecules. Our first-principles based multi-scale modeling shows that a drastic reduction in the growth temperature, from ~1000°C to ~300°C, can be achieved in graphene growth on Cu(111) when the typical carbon source of methane is replaced by benzene or p-Terphenyl. The London dispersion force enhances their adsorption energies by about (0.5–1.8) eV, thereby preventing their easy desorption, facilitating dehydrogenation, and promoting graphene growth at much lower temperatures. These quantitative predictions are validated in our experimental tests, showing convincing demonstration of monolayer graphene growth using the p-Terphenyl source. The general trends established are also more broadly applicable in molecular synthesis of surface-based nanostructures. PMID:23722566

Sensitivity analysis of the near-road dispersion model RLINE - An evaluation at Detroit, Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milando, Chad W.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2018-05-01

The development of accurate and appropriate exposure metrics for health effect studies of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) remains challenging and important given that traffic has become the dominant urban exposure source and that exposure estimates can affect estimates of associated health risk. Exposure estimates obtained using dispersion models can overcome many of the limitations of monitoring data, and such estimates have been used in several recent health studies. This study examines the sensitivity of exposure estimates produced by dispersion models to meteorological, emission and traffic allocation inputs, focusing on applications to health studies examining near-road exposures to TRAP. Daily average concentrations of CO and NOx predicted using the Research Line source model (RLINE) and a spatially and temporally resolved mobile source emissions inventory are compared to ambient measurements at near-road monitoring sites in Detroit, MI, and are used to assess the potential for exposure measurement error in cohort and population-based studies. Sensitivity of exposure estimates is assessed by comparing nominal and alternative model inputs using statistical performance evaluation metrics and three sets of receptors. The analysis shows considerable sensitivity to meteorological inputs; generally the best performance was obtained using data specific to each monitoring site. An updated emission factor database provided some improvement, particularly at near-road sites, while the use of site-specific diurnal traffic allocations did not improve performance compared to simpler default profiles. Overall, this study highlights the need for appropriate inputs, especially meteorological inputs, to dispersion models aimed at estimating near-road concentrations of TRAPs. It also highlights the potential for systematic biases that might affect analyses that use concentration predictions as exposure measures in health studies.

Examination of climatological wind patterns and simulated pollen dispersion in a complex island environment

DOE PAGES

Viner, Brian J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Westgate, Mark E.

2017-03-29

Complex terrain creates small-scale circulations which affect pollen dispersion but may be missed by meteorological observing networks and coarse-grid meteorological models. On volcanic islands, these circulations result from differing rates of surface heating between land and sea as well as rugged terrain. We simulated the transport of bentgrass, ryegrass, and maize pollen from 30 sources within the agricultural regions of the Hawaiian island Kaua’i during climatological conditions spanning season conditions and the La Niña, El Niño, and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Both pollen size and source location had major effects on predicted dispersion over and near themore » island. Three patterns of pollen dispersion were identified in response to prevailing wind conditions: southwest winds transported pollen inland, funneling pollen grains through valleys; east winds transported pollen over the ocean, with dispersive tails for the smallest pollen grains following the mean wind and extending as far as the island of Ni’ihau 35 km away; and northeast winds moved pollen inland counter to the prevailing flow due to a sea breeze circulation that formed over the source region. These results are the first to predict the interactions between complex island terrain and local climatology on grass pollen dispersion. As a result, they demonstrate how numerical modeling can provide guidance for field trials by illustrating the common flow regimes present in complex terrain, allowing field trials to focus on areas where successful sampling is more likely to occur.« less

Examination of climatological wind patterns and simulated pollen dispersion in a complex island environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viner, Brian J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Westgate, Mark E.

Complex terrain creates small-scale circulations which affect pollen dispersion but may be missed by meteorological observing networks and coarse-grid meteorological models. On volcanic islands, these circulations result from differing rates of surface heating between land and sea as well as rugged terrain. We simulated the transport of bentgrass, ryegrass, and maize pollen from 30 sources within the agricultural regions of the Hawaiian island Kaua’i during climatological conditions spanning season conditions and the La Niña, El Niño, and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Both pollen size and source location had major effects on predicted dispersion over and near themore » island. Three patterns of pollen dispersion were identified in response to prevailing wind conditions: southwest winds transported pollen inland, funneling pollen grains through valleys; east winds transported pollen over the ocean, with dispersive tails for the smallest pollen grains following the mean wind and extending as far as the island of Ni’ihau 35 km away; and northeast winds moved pollen inland counter to the prevailing flow due to a sea breeze circulation that formed over the source region. These results are the first to predict the interactions between complex island terrain and local climatology on grass pollen dispersion. As a result, they demonstrate how numerical modeling can provide guidance for field trials by illustrating the common flow regimes present in complex terrain, allowing field trials to focus on areas where successful sampling is more likely to occur.« less

Revisiting the radionuclide atmospheric dispersion event of the Chernobyl disaster - modelling sensitivity and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roustan, Yelva; Duhanyan, Nora; Bocquet, Marc; Winiarek, Victor

2013-04-01

A sensitivity study of the numerical model, as well as, an inverse modelling approach applied to the atmospheric dispersion issues after the Chernobyl disaster are both presented in this paper. On the one hand, the robustness of the source term reconstruction through advanced data assimilation techniques was tested. On the other hand, the classical approaches for sensitivity analysis were enhanced by the use of an optimised forcing field which otherwise is known to be strongly uncertain. The POLYPHEMUS air quality system was used to perform the simulations of radionuclide dispersion. Activity concentrations in air and deposited to the ground of iodine-131, caesium-137 and caesium-134 were considered. The impact of the implemented parameterizations of the physical processes (dry and wet depositions, vertical turbulent diffusion), of the forcing fields (meteorology and source terms) and of the numerical configuration (horizontal resolution) were investigated for the sensitivity study of the model. A four dimensional variational scheme (4D-Var) based on the approximate adjoint of the chemistry transport model was used to invert the source term. The data assimilation is performed with measurements of activity concentrations in air extracted from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database. For most of the investigated configurations (sensitivity study), the statistics to compare the model results to the field measurements as regards the concentrations in air are clearly improved while using a reconstructed source term. As regards the ground deposited concentrations, an improvement can only be seen in case of satisfactorily modelled episode. Through these studies, the source term and the meteorological fields are proved to have a major impact on the activity concentrations in air. These studies also reinforce the use of reconstructed source term instead of the usual estimated one. A more detailed parameterization of the deposition process seems also to be able to improve the simulation results. For deposited activities the results are more complex probably due to a strong sensitivity to some of the meteorological fields which remain quite uncertain.

Enhanced global Radionuclide Source Attribution for the Nuclear-Test-Ban Verification by means of the Adjoint Ensemble Dispersion Modeling Technique applied at the IDC/CTBTO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, A.; Wotawa, G.; de Geer, L.

2006-05-01

The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission maintains and permanently updates a source-receptor matrix (SRM) describing the global monitoring capability of a highly sensitive 80 stations radionuclide (RN) network in order to verify states signatories' compliance of the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty (CTBT). This is done by means of receptor-oriented Lagrangian particle dispersion modeling (LPDM) to help determine the region from which suspicious radionuclides may originate. In doing so the LPDM FLEXPART5.1 is integrated backward in time based on global analysis wind fields yielding global source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) fields stored in three-hour frequency and at 1º horizontal resolution. A database of these SRS fields substantially helps in improving the interpretation of the RN samples measurements and categorizations because it enables the testing of source-hypothesis's later on in a pure post-processing (SRM inversion) step being feasible on hardware with specifications comparable to currently sold PC's or Notebooks and at any place (decentralized), provided access to the SRS fields is warranted. Within the CTBT environment it is important to quickly achieve decision-makers confidence in the SRM based backtracking products issued by the PTS in the case of the occurrence of treaty relevant radionuclides. Therefore the PTS has set up a highly automated response system together with the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers of the World Meteorological Organization in the field of dispersion modeling who committed themselves to provide the PTS with the same standard SRS fields as calculated by their systems for CTBT relevant cases. This system was twice utilized in 2005 in order to perform adjoint ensemble dispersion modeling (EDM) and demonstrated the potential of EDM based backtracking to improve the accuracy of the source location related to singular nuclear events thus serving the backward analogue to the findings of the ensemble dispersion modeling (EDM) technique No. 5 efforts performed by Galmarini et al, 2004 (Atmos. Env. 38, 4607-4617). As the scope of the adjoint EDM methodology is not limited to CTBT verification but can be applied to any kind of nuclear event monitoring and location it bears the potential to improve the design of manifold emergency response systems towards preparedness concepts as needed for mitigation of disasters (like Chernobyl) and pre-emptive estimation of pollution hazards.

Oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans simulated by multiple oceanic general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, H.; Furuno, A.; Kobayashi, T.; In, T.; Nakayama, T.; Ishikawa, Y.; Miyazawa, Y.; Usui, N.

2017-12-01

To understand the concentration and amount of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 in the ocean, this study simulates the oceanic dispersion of Cs-137 by an oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM developed at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The Cs-137 deposition amounts at the sea surface were used as the source term in oceanic dispersion simulations, which were estimated by atmospheric dispersion simulations with a Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information version II (WSPEEDI-II) developed at JAEA. The direct release from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the ocean based on in situ Cs-137 measurements was used as the other source term in oceanic dispersion simulations. The simulated air Cs-137 concentrations qualitatively replicated those measured around the North Pacific. The accumulated Cs-137 ground deposition amount in the eastern Japanese Islands was consistent with that estimated by aircraft measurements. The oceanic dispersion simulations relatively well reproduced the measured Cs-137 concentrations in the coastal and offshore oceans during the first few months after the Fukushima disaster, and in the open ocean during the first year post-disaster. It was suggested that Cs-137 dispersed along the coast in the north-south direction during the first few months post-disaster, and were subsequently dispersed offshore by the Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Extension. Mesoscale eddies accompanied by the Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Extension played an important role in dilution of Cs-137. The Cs-137 amounts were quantified in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans during the first year post-disaster. It was demonstrated that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layer in the North Pacific.

Hydrological modelling of snail dispersal patterns in Msambweni, Kenya and potential resurgence of Schistosoma haematobium transmission.

PubMed

Clennon, J A; King, C H; Muchiri, E M; Kitron, U

2007-05-01

Urinary schistosomiasis is an important source of human morbidity in Msambweni, Kenya, where the intermediate host snail, Bulinus nasutus is found in ponds and water pools. In the past, aquatic habitats in the area have been studied separately; however, recent collections of B. nasutus snails and shells indicated that many of these ponds are in fact connected during and following sufficient rains. Satellite imagery and a geographical information system (GIS) were used to survey the main water courses and potential drainage routes, to locate potential source populations of snails and to determine probable snail dispersal routes. The 2 water bodies implicated as being the most important Schistosoma haematobium transmission foci in the area were found to differ in their degree of connectivity to other B. nasutus source habitats. One pond becomes connected even after normal rains, while the other pond requires prolonged rains or flooding to become connected with source habitats. Consequently, the transmission foci differ in their susceptibility to snail population control measures. Spatially explicit dispersal models that consider the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity between aquatic habitats will contribute to improved snail surveillance and more focused control for urinary schistosomiasis at a local level.

Insight into large-scale topography on analysis of high-frequency Rayleigh waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Ping; Chu, Risheng; Chong, Jiajun; Ni, Sidao; Zhang, Yu

2018-03-01

The dispersion of surface waves could be biased in regions where topography is comparable to the wavelength. We investigate the effects on high-frequency Rayleigh waves propagating in a typical massif model through numerical simulations. High-frequency Rayleigh waves have relatively higher signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) using the Q component in the LQT coordinate system, perpendicular to the local free surface in these topographic models. When sources and stations are located at different sides of the massif, the conventional dispersion image overestimates phase velocities of Rayleigh waves, as much as 25% with topographic height/width ratio (H/r) > 0.5. The dispersion perturbation is more distinctive for fundamental modes. Using a two-layer model, the thickness deviation (ΔD/D) may be significant in surface-wave inversion due to the variation of H/r and the thickness of the first layer. These phenomena cannot be ignored in surface-wave interpretations, nevertheless they are trivial for the source and stations located at the same side of the massif.

Evaluating Force-Field London Dispersion Coefficients Using the Exchange-Hole Dipole Moment Model.

PubMed

Mohebifar, Mohamad; Johnson, Erin R; Rowley, Christopher N

2017-12-12

London dispersion interactions play an integral role in materials science and biophysics. Force fields for atomistic molecular simulations typically represent dispersion interactions by the 12-6 Lennard-Jones potential using empirically determined parameters. These parameters are generally underdetermined, and there is no straightforward way to test if they are physically realistic. Alternatively, the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) model from density-functional theory predicts atomic and molecular London dispersion coefficients from first principles, providing an innovative strategy to validate the dispersion terms of molecular-mechanical force fields. In this work, the XDM model was used to obtain the London dispersion coefficients of 88 organic molecules relevant to biochemistry and pharmaceutical chemistry and the values compared with those derived from the Lennard-Jones parameters of the CGenFF, GAFF, OPLS, and Drude polarizable force fields. The molecular dispersion coefficients for the CGenFF, GAFF, and OPLS models are systematically higher than the XDM-calculated values by a factor of roughly 1.5, likely due to neglect of higher order dispersion terms and premature truncation of the dispersion-energy summation. The XDM dispersion coefficients span a large range for some molecular-mechanical atom types, suggesting an unrecognized source of error in force-field models, which assume that atoms of the same type have the same dispersion interactions. Agreement with the XDM dispersion coefficients is even poorer for the Drude polarizable force field. Popular water models were also examined, and TIP3P was found to have dispersion coefficients similar to the experimental and XDM references, although other models employ anomalously high values. Finally, XDM-derived dispersion coefficients were used to parametrize molecular-mechanical force fields for five liquids-benzene, toluene, cyclohexane, n-pentane, and n-hexane-which resulted in improved accuracy in the computed enthalpies of vaporization despite only having to evaluate a much smaller section of the parameter space.

Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.

Development, Evaluation, and Application of a Primary Aerosol Model.

PubMed

Wang, I T; Chico, T; Huang, Y H; Farber, R J

1999-09-01

The Segmented-Plume Primary Aerosol Model (SPPAM) has been developed over the past several years. The earlier model development goals were simply to generalize the widely used Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCST) model to simulate plume transport and dispersion under light wind conditions and to handle a large number of roadway or line sources. The goals have been expanded to include development of improved algorithm for effective plume transport velocity, more accurate and efficient line and area source dispersion algorithms, and recently, a more realistic and computationally efficient algorithm for plume depletion due to particle dry deposition. A performance evaluation of the SPPAM has been carried out using the 1983 PNL dual tracer experimental data. The results show the model predictions to be in good agreement with observations in both plume advection-dispersion and particulate matter (PM) depletion by dry deposition. For PM 2.5 impact analysis, the SPPAM has been applied to the Rubidoux area of California. Emission sources included in the modeling analysis are: paved road dust, diesel vehicular exhaust, gasoline vehicular exhaust, and tire wear particles from a large number of roadways in Rubidoux and surrounding areas. For the selected modeling periods, the predicted primary PM 2.5 to primary PM10 concentration ratios for the Rubidoux sampling station are in the range of 0.39-0.46. The organic fractions of the primary PM 2.5 impacts are estimated to be at least 34-41%. Detailed modeling results indicate that the relatively high organic fractions are primarily due to the proximity of heavily traveled roadways north of the sampling station. The predictions are influenced by a number of factors; principal among them are the receptor locations relative to major roadways, the volume and composition of traffic on these roadways, and the prevailing meteorological conditions.

Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, Thomas T.; Sheu, Rong-Shyang; Bowers, James F.; Sykes, R. Ian; Dodd, Gregory C.; Henn, Douglas S.

2002-05-01

Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system. The results demonstrate that the specific choices made about the dynamic-model configuration and the large-scale analyses can have a large impact on the simulated dosages. For example, the area near the source that is exposed to a selected dosage threshold varies by up to a factor of 4 among members of the ensemble. The agreement between the explicit and ensemble dosage probabilities is relatively good for both low and high dosage levels. Although only one ensemble was considered in this study, the encouraging results suggest that a probabilistic dispersion model may be of value in quantifying the effects of uncertainties in a dynamic-model ensemble on dispersion model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion.

Characterization of air pollutant concentrations, fleet emission factors, and dispersion near a North Carolina interstate freeway across two seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Provat K.; Khlystov, Andrey; Snyder, Michelle G.; Grieshop, Andrew P.

2018-03-01

We present field measurement data and modeling of multiple traffic-related air pollutants during two seasons at a site adjoining Interstate 40, near Durham, North Carolina. We analyze spatial-temporal and seasonal trends and fleet-average pollutant emission factors and use our data to evaluate a line source dispersion model. Month-long measurement campaigns were performed in summer 2015 and winter 2016. Data were collected at a fixed near-road site located within 10 m from the highway edge, an upwind background site and, under favorable meteorological conditions, along downwind perpendicular transects. Measurements included the size distribution, chemical composition, and volatility of submicron particles, black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), meteorological conditions and traffic activity data. Results show strong seasonal and diurnal differences in spatial distribution of traffic sourced pollutants. A strong signature of vehicle emissions was observed within 100-150 m from the highway edge with significantly higher concentrations during morning. Substantially higher concentrations and less-sharp near-road gradients were observed in winter for many species. Season-specific fleet-average fuel-based emission factors for NO, NOx, BC, and particle number (PN) were derived based on up- and down-wind roadside measurements. The campaign-average NOx and PN emission factors were 20% and 300% higher in winter than summer, respectively. These results suggest that the combined effect of higher emissions and their slower downwind dispersion in winter dictate the observed higher downwind concentrations and wider highway influence zone in winter for several species. Finally, measurements of traffic data, emission factors, and pollutant concentrations were integrated to evaluate a line source dispersion model (R-LINE). The dispersion model captured the general trends in the spatial and temporal patterns in near-road concentrations. However, there was a tendency for the model to under-predict concentrations near the road in the mornings and over-predict concentrations in the evenings.

An open-terrain line source model coupled with street-canyon effects to forecast carbon monoxide at traffic roundabout.

PubMed

Pandian, Suresh; Gokhale, Sharad; Ghoshal, Aloke Kumar

2011-02-15

A double-lane four-arm roundabout, where traffic movement is continuous in opposite directions and at different speeds, produces a zone responsible for recirculation of emissions within a road section creating canyon-type effect. In this zone, an effect of thermally induced turbulence together with vehicle wake dominates over wind driven turbulence causing pollutant emission to flow within, resulting into more or less equal amount of pollutants upwind and downwind particularly during low winds. Beyond this region, however, the effect of winds becomes stronger, causing downwind movement of pollutants. Pollutant dispersion caused by such phenomenon cannot be described accurately by open-terrain line source model alone. This is demonstrated by estimating one-minute average carbon monoxide concentration by coupling an open-terrain line source model with a street canyon model which captures the combine effect to describe the dispersion at non-signalized roundabout. The results of the modeling matched well with the measurements compared with the line source model alone and the prediction error reduced by about 50%. The study further demonstrated this with traffic emissions calculated by field and semi-empirical methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

PubMed

Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

2016-11-10

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves

PubMed Central

Ripepe, M.; Barfucci, G.; De Angelis, S.; Delle Donne, D.; Lacanna, G.; Marchetti, E.

2016-01-01

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models. PMID:27830768

Developing a Short-Period, Fundamental-Mode Rayleigh-Wave Attenuation Model for Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Levshin, A. L.; Barmin, M. P.; Ritzwoller, M. H.

2008-12-01

We are developing a 2D, short-period (12 - 22 s), fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave attenuation model for Asia. This model can be used to invert for a 3D attenuation model of the Earth's crust and upper mantle as well as to implement more accurate path corrections in regional surface-wave magnitude calculations. The prerequisite for developing a reliable Rayleigh-wave attenuation model is the availability of accurate fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave amplitude measurements. Fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave amplitudes could be contaminated by a variety of sources such as multipathing, focusing and defocusing, body wave, higher-mode surface wave, and other noise sources. These contaminations must be reduced to the largest extent possible. To achieve this, we designed a procedure by taking advantage of certain Rayleigh-wave characteristics, such as dispersion and elliptical particle motion, for accurate amplitude measurements. We first analyze the dispersion of the surface-wave data using a spectrogram. Based on the characteristics of the data dispersion, we design a phase-matched filter by using either a manually picked dispersion curve, or a group-velocity-model predicted dispersion curve, or the dispersion of the data, and apply the filter to the seismogram. Intelligent filtering of the seismogram and windowing of the resulting cross-correlation based on the spectrogram analysis and the comparison between the phase-match filtered data spectrum, the raw-data spectrum and the theoretical source spectrum effectively reduces amplitude contaminations and results in reliable amplitude measurements in many cases. We implemented these measuring techniques in a graphic-user-interface tool called Surface Wave Amplitude Measurement Tool (SWAMTOOL). Using the tool, we collected and processed waveform data for 200 earthquakes occurring throughout 2003-2006 inside and around Eurasia. The records from 135 broadband stations were used. After obtaining the Rayleigh-wave amplitude measurements, we analyzed the attenuation behavior of the amplitudes using source- and receiver-specific terms calculated from a 3D velocity model of the region. Based on the results, we removed amplitudes that yielded negative average attenuation coefficients, and included an additional parameter in the inversion to account for the possible bias of the CMT moments. Using the high-quality amplitude measurements in a tomographic inversion, we obtained a fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave attenuation- coefficient model for periods between 12 and 22 s for Asia and surrounding regions. The inverted attenuation model is consistent with the geological features of Asia. We observe low attenuation in stable regions such as eastern Europe, the Siberian platforms, the Indian shield, the Arabian platform, the Yangtze craton, and others. High attenuation is observed in tectonically active regions such as the Himalayas, the Tian Shan, Pamir and Zagros mountains.

National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center dispersion modeling of the Full-scale Radiological Dispersal device (FSRDD) field trials

DOE PAGES

Neuscamman, Stephanie J.; Yu, Kristen L.

2016-05-01

The results of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) model simulations are compared to measured data from the Full-Scale Radiological Dispersal Device (FSRDD) field trials. The series of explosive radiological dispersal device (RDD) experiments was conducted in 2012 by Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and collaborating organizations. During the trials, a wealth of data was collected, including a variety of deposition and air concentration measurements. The experiments were conducted with one of the stated goals being to provide measurements to atmospheric dispersion modelers. These measurements can be used to facilitate important model validation studies. For this study, meteorologicalmore » observations recorded during the tests are input to the diagnostic meteorological model, ADAPT, which provides 3–D, time-varying mean wind and turbulence fields to the LODI dispersion model. LODI concentration and deposition results are compared to the measured data, and the sensitivity of the model results to changes in input conditions (such as the particle activity size distribution of the source) and model physics (such as the rise of the buoyant cloud of explosive products) is explored. The NARAC simulations predicted the experimentally measured deposition results reasonably well considering the complexity of the release. Lastly, changes to the activity size distribution of the modeled particles can improve the agreement of the model results to measurement.« less

Simulation of tracer dispersion from elevated and surface releases in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, J. F.; Cremades, L.; Baldasano, J. M.

A new version of an advanced mesoscale dispersion modeling system for simulating passive air pollutant dispersion in the real atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL), is presented. The system comprises a diagnostic mass-consistent meteorological model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LADISMO). The former version of LADISMO, developed according to Zannetti (Air pollution modelling, 1990), was based on the Monte Carlo technique and included calculation of higher-order moments of vertical random forcing for convective conditions. Its ability to simulate complex flow dispersion has been stated in a previous paper (Hernández et al. 1995, Atmospheric Environment, 29A, 1331-1341). The new version follows Thomson's scheme (1984, Q. Jl Roy. Met. Soc.110, 1107-1120). It is also based on Langevin equation and follows the ideas given by Brusasca et al. (1992, Atmospheric Environment26A, 707-723) and Anfossi et al. (1992, Nuovo Cemento 15c, 139-158). The model is used to simulate the dispersion and predict the ground level concentration (g.l.c.) of a tracer (SF 6) released from both an elevated source ( case a) and a ground level source ( case b) in a highly complex mountainous terrain during neutral and synoptically dominated conditions ( case a) and light and apparently stable conditions ( case b). The last case is considered as being a specially difficult task to simulate. In fact, few works have reported situations with valley drainage flows in complex terrains and real stable atmospheric conditions with weak winds. The model assumes that nearly calm situations associated to strong stability and air stagnation, make the lowest layers of PBL poorly diffusive (Brusasca et al., 1992, Atmospheric Environment26A, 707-723). Model results are verified against experimental data from Guardo-90 tracer experiments, an intensive field campaign conducted in the Carrion river valley (Northern Spain) to study atmospheric diffusion within a steep walled valley in mountainous terrain (Ibarra, 1992, Energia, No. 1, 74-85).

Industrial point source CO2 emission strength estimation with aircraft measurements and dispersion modelling.

PubMed

Carotenuto, Federico; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Miglietta, Franco; Riccio, Angelo; Toscano, Piero; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Gioli, Beniamino

2018-02-22

CO 2 remains the greenhouse gas that contributes most to anthropogenic global warming, and the evaluation of its emissions is of major interest to both research and regulatory purposes. Emission inventories generally provide quite reliable estimates of CO 2 emissions. However, because of intrinsic uncertainties associated with these estimates, it is of great importance to validate emission inventories against independent estimates. This paper describes an integrated approach combining aircraft measurements and a puff dispersion modelling framework by considering a CO 2 industrial point source, located in Biganos, France. CO 2 density measurements were obtained by applying the mass balance method, while CO 2 emission estimates were derived by implementing the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. For the latter, three meteorological initializations were used: (i) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by ECMWF reanalyses; (ii) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by CFSR reanalyses and (iii) local in situ observations. Governmental inventorial data were used as reference for all applications. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and how they affect emission estimation uncertainty were investigated. The mass balance based on aircraft measurements was quite succesful in capturing the point source emission strength (at worst with a 16% bias), while the accuracy of the dispersion modelling, markedly when using ECMWF initialization through the WRF model, was only slightly lower (estimation with an 18% bias). The analysis will help in highlighting some methodological best practices that can be used as guidelines for future experiments.

Modelling plume dispersion pattern from a point source using spatial auto-correlational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ujoh, F.; Kwabe, D.

2014-02-01

The main objective of the study is to estimate the rate and model the pattern of plume rise from Dangote Cement Plc. A handheld Garmin GPS was employed for collection of coordinates at a single kilometre graduation from the centre of the factory to 10 kilometres. Plume rate was estimated using the Gaussian model while Kriging, using ArcGIS, was adopted for modelling the pattern of plume dispersion over a 10 kilometre radius around the factory. ANOVA test was applied for statistical analysis of the plume coefficients. The results indicate that plume dispersion is generally high with highest values recorded for the atmospheric stability classes A and B, while the least values are recorded for the atmospheric stability classes F and E. The variograms derived from the Kriging reveal that the pattern of plume dispersion is outwardly radial and omni-directional. With the exception of 3 stability sub-classes (DH, EH and FH) out of a total of 12, the 24-hour average of particulate matters (PM10 and PM2.5) within the study area is outrageously higher (highest value at 21392.3) than the average safety limit of 150 ug/m3 - 230 ug/m3 prescribed by the 2006 WHO guidelines. This indicates the presence of respirable and non-respirable pollutants that create poor ambient air quality. The study concludes that the use of geospatial technology can be adopted in modelling dispersion of pollutants from a point source. The study recommends ameliorative measures to reduce the rate of plume emission at the factory.

The Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Leak : Large Eddy Simulations for Modeling Atmospheric Dynamics and Interpretation of Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, K.; Thorpe, A. K.; Duren, R. M.; Thompson, D. R.; Whetstone, J. R.

2016-12-01

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has supported the development and demonstration of a measurement capability to accurately locate greenhouse gas sources and measure their flux to the atmosphere over urban domains. However, uncertainties in transport models which form the basis of all top-down approaches can significantly affect our capability to attribute sources and predict their flux to the atmosphere. Reducing uncertainties between bottom-up and top-down models will require high resolution transport models as well as validation and verification of dispersion models over an urban domain. Tracer experiments involving the release of Perfluorocarbon Tracers (PFTs) at known flow rates offer the best approach for validating dispersion / transport models. However, tracer experiments are limited by cost, ability to make continuous measurements, and environmental concerns. Natural tracer experiments, such as the leak from the Aliso Canyon underground storage facility offers a unique opportunity to improve and validate high resolution transport models, test leak hypothesis, and to estimate the amount of methane released.High spatial resolution (10 m) Large Eddy Simulations (LES) coupled with WRF atmospheric transport models were performed to simulate the dynamics of the Aliso Canyon methane plume and to quantify the source. High resolution forward simulation results were combined with aircraft and tower based in-situ measurements as well as data from NASA airborne imaging spectrometers. Comparison of simulation results with measurement data demonstrate the capability of the LES models to accurately model transport and dispersion of methane plumes over urban domains.

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution : State-of-the-Art Survey, II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-06-01

THE STATE-OF-THE-ART IS SURVEYED IN AIR POLLUTION MODELLING WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE MODELING OF DISPERSION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES. MODELS WHICH HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN IMPLEMENTED ARE STRESSED AND THE COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THESE MODELS ARE...

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution : State-of-the-Art Survey, II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-06-01

The state-of-the-art is surveyed in air pollution modeling with particular emphasis on the modeling of dispersion from transportation sources. Models which have actually been implemented are stressed and the computational aspects of these models are ...

Computer Modeling of Transportation-Generated Air Pollution - a State-of-the-Art Survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-06-01

THE STATE-OF-THE-ART IS SURVEYED IN AIR POLLUTION MODELLING WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE MODELING OF DISPERSION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES. MODELS WHICH HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN IMPLEMENTED ARE STRESSED AND THE COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THESE MODELS ARE...

Improving volcanic sulfur dioxide cloud dispersal forecasts by progressive assimilation of satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boichu, Marie; Clarisse, Lieven; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Clerbaux, Cathy

2014-04-01

Forecasting the dispersal of volcanic clouds during an eruption is of primary importance, especially for ensuring aviation safety. As volcanic emissions are characterized by rapid variations of emission rate and height, the (generally) high level of uncertainty in the emission parameters represents a critical issue that limits the robustness of volcanic cloud dispersal forecasts. An inverse modeling scheme, combining satellite observations of the volcanic cloud with a regional chemistry-transport model, allows reconstructing this source term at high temporal resolution. We demonstrate here how a progressive assimilation of freshly acquired satellite observations, via such an inverse modeling procedure, allows for delivering robust sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud dispersal forecasts during the eruption. This approach provides a computationally cheap estimate of the expected location and mass loading of volcanic clouds, including the identification of SO2-rich parts.

Appropriateness of selecting different averaging times for modelling chronic and acute exposure to environmental odours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drew, G. H.; Smith, R.; Gerard, V.; Burge, C.; Lowe, M.; Kinnersley, R.; Sneath, R.; Longhurst, P. J.

Odour emissions are episodic, characterised by periods of high emission rates, interspersed with periods of low emissions. It is frequently the short term, high concentration peaks that result in annoyance in the surrounding population. Dispersion modelling is accepted as a useful tool for odour impact assessment, and two approaches can be adopted. The first approach of modelling the hourly average concentration can underestimate total odour concentration peaks, resulting in annoyance and complaints. The second modelling approach involves the use of short averaging times. This study assesses the appropriateness of using different averaging times to model the dispersion of odour from a landfill site. We also examine perception of odour in the community in conjunction with the modelled odour dispersal, by using community monitors to record incidents of odour. The results show that with the shorter averaging times, the modelled pattern of dispersal reflects the pattern of observed odour incidents recorded in the community monitoring database, with the modelled odour dispersing further in a north easterly direction. Therefore, the current regulatory method of dispersion modelling, using hourly averaging times, is less successful at capturing peak concentrations, and does not capture the pattern of odour emission as indicated by the community monitoring database. The use of short averaging times is therefore of greater value in predicting the likely nuisance impact of an odour source and in framing appropriate regulatory controls.

Effect of numerical dispersion as a source of structural noise in the calibration of a highly parameterized saltwater intrusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.

2010-01-01

A model with a small amount of numerical dispersion was used to represent saltwater 7 intrusion in a homogeneous aquifer for a 10-year historical calibration period with one 8 groundwater withdrawal location followed by a 10-year prediction period with two groundwater 9 withdrawal locations. Time-varying groundwater concentrations at arbitrary locations in this low-10 dispersion model were then used as observations to calibrate a model with a greater amount of 11 numerical dispersion. The low-dispersion model was solved using a Total Variation Diminishing 12 numerical scheme; an implicit finite difference scheme with upstream weighting was used for 13 the calibration simulations. Calibration focused on estimating a three-dimensional hydraulic 14 conductivity field that was parameterized using a regular grid of pilot points in each layer and a 15 smoothness constraint. Other model parameters (dispersivity, porosity, recharge, etc.) were 16 fixed at the known values. The discrepancy between observed and simulated concentrations 17 (due solely to numerical dispersion) was reduced by adjusting hydraulic conductivity through the 18 calibration process. Within the transition zone, hydraulic conductivity tended to be lower than 19 the true value for the calibration runs tested. The calibration process introduced lower hydraulic 20 conductivity values to compensate for numerical dispersion and improve the match between 21 observed and simulated concentration breakthrough curves at monitoring locations. 22 Concentrations were underpredicted at both groundwater withdrawal locations during the 10-23 year prediction period.

A hybrid modeling with data assimilation to evaluate human exposure level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Y. S.; Cheong, H. K.; Choi, D.; Kim, A. L.; Yun, H. Y.

2015-12-01

Exposure models are designed to better represent human contact with PM (Particulate Matter) and other air pollutants such as CO, SO2, O3, and NO2. The exposure concentrations of the air pollutants to human are determined by global and regional long range transport of global and regional scales from Europe and China as well as local emissions from urban and road vehicle sources. To assess the exposure level in detail, the multiple scale influence from background to local sources should be considered. A hybrid air quality modeling methodology combing a grid-based chemical transport model with a local plume dispersion model was used to provide spatially and temporally resolved air quality concentration for human exposure levels in Korea. In the hybrid modeling approach, concentrations from a grid-based chemical transport model and a local plume dispersion model are added to provide contributions from photochemical interactions, long-range (regional) transport and local-scale dispersion. The CAMx (Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions was used for the background concentrations from anthropogenic and natural emissions in East Asia including Korea while the road dispersion by vehicle emission was calculated by CALPUFF model. The total exposure level of the pollutants was finally assessed by summing the background and road contributions. In the hybrid modeling, the data assimilation method based on the optimal interpolation was applied to overcome the discrepancies between the model predicted concentrations and observations. The air quality data from the air quality monitoring stations in Korea. The spatial resolution of the hybrid model was 50m for the Seoul Metropolitan Ares. This example clearly demonstrates that the exposure level could be estimated to the fine scale for the exposure assessment by using the hybrid modeling approach with data assimilation.

Spatial variation and density-dependent dispersal in competitive coexistence.

PubMed Central

Amarasekare, Priyanga

2004-01-01

It is well known that dispersal from localities favourable to a species' growth and reproduction (sources) can prevent competitive exclusion in unfavourable localities (sinks). What is perhaps less well known is that too much emigration can undermine the viability of sources and cause regional competitive exclusion. Here, I investigate two biological mechanisms that reduce the cost of dispersal to source communities. The first involves increasing the spatial variation in the strength of competition such that sources can withstand high rates of emigration; the second involves reducing emigration from sources via density-dependent dispersal. I compare how different forms of spatial variation and modes of dispersal influence source viability, and hence source-sink coexistence, under dominance and pre-emptive competition. A key finding is that, while spatial variation substantially reduces dispersal costs under both types of competition, density-dependent dispersal does so only under dominance competition. For instance, when spatial variation in the strength of competition is high, coexistence is possible (regardless of the type of competition) even when sources experience high emigration rates; when spatial variation is low, coexistence is restricted even under low emigration rates. Under dominance competition, density-dependent dispersal has a strong effect on coexistence. For instance, when the emigration rate increases with density at an accelerating rate (Type III density-dependent dispersal), coexistence is possible even when spatial variation is quite low; when the emigration rate increases with density at a decelerating rate (Type II density-dependent dispersal), coexistence is restricted even when spatial variation is quite high. Under pre-emptive competition, density-dependent dispersal has only a marginal effect on coexistence. Thus, the diversity-reducing effects of high dispersal rates persist under pre-emptive competition even when dispersal is density dependent, but can be significantly mitigated under dominance competition if density-dependent dispersal is Type III rather than Type II. These results lead to testable predictions about source-sink coexistence under different regimes of competition, spatial variation and dispersal. They identify situations in which density-independent dispersal provides a reasonable approximation to species' dispersal patterns, and those under which consideration of density-dependent dispersal is crucial to predicting long-term coexistence. PMID:15306322

Predicting Aspergillus fumigatus exposure from composting facilities using a dispersion model: A conditional calibration and validation.

PubMed

Douglas, Philippa; Tyrrel, Sean F; Kinnersley, Robert P; Whelan, Michael; Longhurst, Philip J; Hansell, Anna L; Walsh, Kerry; Pollard, Simon J T; Drew, Gillian H

2017-01-01

Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are unclear. Exposure levels are difficult to quantify as established sampling methods are costly, time-consuming and current data provide limited temporal and spatial information. Confidence in dispersion model outputs in this context would be advantageous to provide a more detailed exposure assessment. We present the calibration and validation of a recognised atmospheric dispersion model (ADMS) for bioaerosol exposure assessments. The model was calibrated by a trial and error optimisation of observed Aspergillus fumigatus concentrations at different locations around a composting site. Validation was performed using a second dataset of measured concentrations for a different site. The best fit between modelled and measured data was achieved when emissions were represented as a single area source, with a temperature of 29°C. Predicted bioaerosol concentrations were within an order of magnitude of measured values (1000-10,000CFU/m 3 ) at the validation site, once minor adjustments were made to reflect local differences between the sites (r 2 >0.7 at 150, 300, 500 and 600m downwind of source). Results suggest that calibrated dispersion modelling can be applied to make reasonable predictions of bioaerosol exposures at multiple sites and may be used to inform site regulation and operational management. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Estimating accidental pollutant releases in the built environment from turbulent concentration signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Salem, N.; Salizzoni, P.; Soulhac, L.

2017-01-01

We present an inverse atmospheric model to estimate the mass flow rate of an impulsive source of pollutant, whose position is known, from concentration signals registered at receptors placed downwind of the source. The originality of this study is twofold. Firstly, the inversion is performed using high-frequency fluctuating, i.e. turbulent, concentration signals. Secondly, the inverse algorithm is applied to a dispersion process within a dense urban canopy, at the district scale, and a street network model, SIRANERISK, is adopted. The model, which is tested against wind tunnel experiments, simulates the dispersion of short-duration releases of pollutant in different typologies of idealised urban geometries. Results allow us to discuss the reliability of the inverse model as an operational tool for crisis management and the risk assessments related to the accidental release of toxic and flammable substances.

Numerical Simulation of Dispersion from Urban Greenhouse Gas Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nottrott, Anders; Tan, Sze; He, Yonggang; Winkler, Renato

2017-04-01

Cities are characterized by complex topography, inhomogeneous turbulence, and variable pollutant source distributions. These features create a scale separation between local sources and urban scale emissions estimates known as the Grey-Zone. Modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques provide a quasi-deterministic, physically based toolset to bridge the scale separation gap between source level dynamics, local measurements, and urban scale emissions inventories. CFD has the capability to represent complex building topography and capture detailed 3D turbulence fields in the urban boundary layer. This presentation discusses the application of OpenFOAM to urban CFD simulations of natural gas leaks in cities. OpenFOAM is an open source software for advanced numerical simulation of engineering and environmental fluid flows. When combined with free or low cost computer aided drawing and GIS, OpenFOAM generates a detailed, 3D representation of urban wind fields. OpenFOAM was applied to model scalar emissions from various components of the natural gas distribution system, to study the impact of urban meteorology on mobile greenhouse gas measurements. The numerical experiments demonstrate that CH4 concentration profiles are highly sensitive to the relative location of emission sources and buildings. Sources separated by distances of 5-10 meters showed significant differences in vertical dispersion of plumes, due to building wake effects. The OpenFOAM flow fields were combined with an inverse, stochastic dispersion model to quantify and visualize the sensitivity of point sensors to upwind sources in various built environments. The Boussinesq approximation was applied to investigate the effects of canopy layer temperature gradients and convection on sensor footprints.

Gaussian temporal modulation for the behavior of multi-sinc Schell-model pulses in dispersive media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiayin; Zhao, Daomu; Tian, Kehan; Pan, Weiqing; Zhang, Kouwen

2018-06-01

A new class of pulse source with correlation being modeled by the convolution operation of two legitimate temporal correlation function is proposed. Particularly, analytical formulas for the Gaussian temporally modulated multi-sinc Schell-model (MSSM) pulses generated by such pulse source propagating in dispersive media are derived. It is demonstrated that the average intensity of MSSM pulses on propagation are reshaped from flat profile or a train to a distribution with a Gaussian temporal envelope by adjusting the initial correlation width of the Gaussian pulse. The effects of the Gaussian temporal modulation on the temporal degree of coherence of the MSSM pulse are also analyzed. The results presented here show the potential of coherence modulation for pulse shaping and pulsed laser material processing.

An alternative screening model for the estimation of outdoor air concentration at large contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verginelli, Iason; Nocentini, Massimo; Baciocchi, Renato

2017-09-01

Simplified analytical solutions of fate and transport models are often used to carry out risk assessment on contaminated sites, to evaluate the long-term air quality in relation to volatile organic compounds in either soil or groundwater. Among the different assumptions employed to develop these solutions, in this work we focus on those used in the ASTM-RBCA ;box model; for the evaluation of contaminant dispersion in the atmosphere. In this simple model, it is assumed that the contaminant volatilized from the subsurface is dispersed in the atmosphere within a mixing height equal to two meters, i.e. the height of the breathing zone. In certain cases, this simplification could lead to an overestimation of the outdoor air concentration at the point of exposure. In this paper we first discuss the maximum source lengths (in the wind direction) for which the application of the ;box model; can be considered acceptable. Specifically, by comparing the results of ;box model; with the SCREEN3 model of U.S.EPA we found that under very stable atmospheric conditions (class F) the ASTM-RBCA approach provides acceptable results for source lengths up to 200 m while for very unstable atmospheric conditions (class A and B) the overestimation of the concentrations at the point of the exposure can be already observed for source lengths of only 10 m. In the latter case, the overestimation of the ;box model; can be of more than one order of magnitude for source lengths above 500 m. To overcome this limitation, in this paper we introduce a simple analytical solution that can be used for the calculation of the concentration at the point of exposure for large contaminated sites. The method consists in the introduction of an equivalent mixing zone height that allows to account for the dispersion of the contaminants along the source length while keeping the simplistic ;box model; approach that is implemented in most of risk assessment tools that are based on the ASTM-RBCA standard (e.g. RBCA toolkit). Based on our testing, we found that the developed model replicates very well the results of the more sophisticated dispersion SCREEN3 model with deviations always below 10%. The key advantage of this approach is that it can be very easily incorporated in the current risk assessment screening tools that are based on the ASTM standards while ensuring a more accurate evaluation of the concentration at the point of exposure.

Impact of Acoustic Radiation Force Excitation Geometry on Shear Wave Dispersion and Attenuation Estimates.

PubMed

Lipman, Samantha L; Rouze, Ned C; Palmeri, Mark L; Nightingale, Kathryn R

2018-04-01

Shear wave elasticity imaging (SWEI) characterizes the mechanical properties of human tissues to differentiate healthy from diseased tissue. Commercial scanners tend to reconstruct shear wave speeds for a region of interest using time-of-flight methods reporting a single shear wave speed (or elastic modulus) to the end user under the assumptions that tissue is elastic and shear wave speeds are not dependent on the frequency content of the shear waves. Human tissues, however, are known to be viscoelastic, resulting in dispersion and attenuation. Shear wave spectroscopy and spectral methods have been previously reported in the literature to quantify shear wave dispersion and attenuation, commonly making an assumption that the acoustic radiation force excitation acts as a cylindrical source with a known geometric shear wave amplitude decay. This work quantifies the bias in shear dispersion and attenuation estimates associated with making this cylindrical wave assumption when applied to shear wave sources with finite depth extents, as commonly occurs with realistic focal geometries, in elastic and viscoelastic media. Bias is quantified using analytically derived shear wave data and shear wave data generated using finite-element method models. Shear wave dispersion and attenuation bias (up to 15% for dispersion and 41% for attenuation) is greater for more tightly focused acoustic radiation force sources with smaller depths of field relative to their lateral extent (height-to-width ratios <16). Dispersion and attenuation errors associated with assuming a cylindrical geometric shear wave decay in SWEI can be appreciable and should be considered when analyzing the viscoelastic properties of tissues with acoustic radiation force source distributions with limited depths of field. Copyright © 2018 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Source-Sink Colonization as a Possible Strategy of Insects Living in Temporary Habitats.

PubMed

Frouz, Jan; Kindlmann, Pavel

2015-01-01

Continuous colonization and re-colonization is critical for survival of insect species living in temporary habitats. When insect populations in temporary habitats are depleted, some species may escape extinction by surviving in permanent, but less suitable habitats, in which long-term population survival can be maintained only by immigration from other populations. Such situation has been repeatedly described in nature, but conditions when and how this occurs and how important this phenomenon is for insect metapopulation survival are still poorly known, mainly because it is difficult to study experimentally. Therefore, we used a simulation model to investigate, how environmental stochasticity, growth rate and the incidence of dispersal affect the positive effect of permanent but poor ("sink") habitats on the likelihood of metapopulation persistence in a network of high quality but temporary ("source") habitats. This model revealed that permanent habitats substantially increase the probability of metapopulation persistence of insect species with poor dispersal ability if the availability of temporary habitats is spatio-temporally synchronized. Addition of permanent habitats to a system sometimes enabled metapopulation persistence even in cases in which the metapopulation would otherwise go extinct, especially for species with high growth rates. For insect species with low growth rates the probability of a metapopulation persistence strongly depended on the proportions of "source" to "source" and "sink" to "source" dispersal rates.

Stability of volcanic ash aggregates and break-up processes.

PubMed

Mueller, Sebastian B; Kueppers, Ulrich; Ametsbichler, Jonathan; Cimarelli, Corrado; Merrison, Jonathan P; Poret, Matthieu; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Dingwell, Donald B

2017-08-07

Numerical modeling of ash plume dispersal is an important tool for forecasting and mitigating potential hazards from volcanic ash erupted during explosive volcanism. Recent tephra dispersal models have been expanded to account for dynamic ash aggregation processes. However, there are very few studies on rates of disaggregation during transport. It follows that current models regard ash aggregation as irrevocable and may therefore overestimate aggregation-enhanced sedimentation. In this experimental study, we use industrial granulation techniques to artificially produce aggregates. We subject these to impact tests and evaluate their resistance to break-up processes. We find a dependence of aggregate stability on primary particle size distribution and solid particle binder concentration. We posit that our findings could be combined with eruption source parameters and implemented in future tephra dispersal models.

Numerical simulations of LNG vapor dispersion in Brayton Fire Training Field tests with ANSYS CFX.

PubMed

Qi, Ruifeng; Ng, Dedy; Cormier, Benjamin R; Mannan, M Sam

2010-11-15

Federal safety regulations require the use of validated consequence models to determine the vapor cloud dispersion exclusion zones for accidental liquefied natural gas (LNG) releases. One tool that is being developed in industry for exclusion zone determination and LNG vapor dispersion modeling is computational fluid dynamics (CFD). This paper uses the ANSYS CFX CFD code to model LNG vapor dispersion in the atmosphere. Discussed are important parameters that are essential inputs to the ANSYS CFX simulations, including the atmospheric conditions, LNG evaporation rate and pool area, turbulence in the source term, ground surface temperature and roughness height, and effects of obstacles. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate uncertainties in the simulation results arising from the mesh size and source term turbulence intensity. In addition, a set of medium-scale LNG spill tests were performed at the Brayton Fire Training Field to collect data for validating the ANSYS CFX prediction results. A comparison of test data with simulation results demonstrated that CFX was able to describe the dense gas behavior of LNG vapor cloud, and its prediction results of downwind gas concentrations close to ground level were in approximate agreement with the test data. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dispersal of Salmonella Typhimurium by rain splash onto tomato plants.

PubMed

Cevallos-Cevallos, Juan M; Danyluk, Michelle D; Gu, Ganyu; Vallad, Gary E; van Bruggen, Ariena H C

2012-03-01

Outbreaks of Salmonella enterica have increasingly been associated with tomatoes and traced back to production areas, but the spread of Salmonella from a point source onto plants has not been described. Splash dispersal by rain could be one means of dissemination. Green fluorescent protein-labeled, kanamycin-resistant Salmonella enterica sv. Typhimurium dispensed on the surface of plastic mulch, organic mulch, or soil at 10⁸ CFU/cm² was used as the point source in the center of a rain simulator. Tomato plants in soil with and without plastic or organic mulch were placed around the point source, and rain intensities of 60 and 110 mm/h were applied for 5, 10, 20, and 30 min. Dispersal of Salmonella followed a negative exponential model with a half distance of 3 cm at 110 mm/h. Dispersed Salmonella survived for 3 days on tomato leaflets, with a total decline of 5 log and an initial decimal reduction time of 10 h. Recovery of dispersed Salmonella from plants at the maximum observed distance ranged from 3 CFU/g of leaflet after a rain episode of 110 mm/h for 10 min on soil to 117 CFU/g of leaflet on plastic mulch. Dispersal of Salmonella on plants with and without mulch was significantly enhanced by increasing rain duration from 0 to 10 min, but dispersal was reduced when rainfall duration increased from 10 to 30 min. Salmonella may be dispersed by rain to contaminate tomato plants in the field, especially during rain events of 10 min and when plastic mulch is used.

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

SPRAYTRAN USER'S GUIDE: A GIS-BASED ATMOSPHERIC SPRAY DROPLET DISPERSION MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The offsite drift of pesticide from spray operations is an ongoing source of concern. The SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) system, documented in this report, incorporates the near-field spray application model, AGDISP, into a meso-scale atmospheric transport model. The AGDISP model ...

Modelling of pollen dispersion in the atmosphere: evaluation with a continuous 1β+1δ lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Michaël; Izquierdo, Rebeca; Jorba, Oriol; Alarcón, Marta; Belmonte, Jordina; Comerón, Adolfo; De Linares, Concepción; Baldasano, José Maria

2018-04-01

Pollen allergenicity plays an important role on human health and wellness. It is thus of large public interest to increase our knowledge of pollen grain behavior in the atmosphere (source, emission, processes involved during their transport, etc.) at fine temporal and spatial scales. First simulations with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center NMMB/BSC-CTM model of Platanus and Pinus dispersion in the atmosphere were performed during a 5-day pollination event observed in Barcelona, Spain, between 27 - 31 March, 2015. The simulations are compared to vertical profiles measured with the continuous Barcelona Micro Pulse Lidar system. First results show that the vertical distribution is well reproduced by the model in shape, but not in intensity, the model largely underestimating in the afternoon. Guidelines are proposed to improve the dispersion of airborne pollen by numerical prediction models.

Validation of a Sensor-Driven Modeling Paradigm for Multiple Source Reconstruction with FFT-07 Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

operational warning and reporting (information) systems that combine automated data acquisition, analysis , source reconstruction, display and distribution of...report and to incorporate this operational ca- pability into the integrative multiscale urban modeling system implemented in the com- putational...Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 180, 529–556. [27] Flesch, T., Wilson, J. D., and Yee, E. (1995), Backward- time Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models

Ammonia emissions from an anaerobic digestion plant estimated using atmospheric measurements and dispersion modelling.

PubMed

Bell, Michael W; Tang, Y Sim; Dragosits, Ulrike; Flechard, Chris R; Ward, Paul; Braban, Christine F

2016-10-01

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is becoming increasingly implemented within organic waste treatment operations. The storage and processing of large volumes of organic wastes through AD has been identified as a significant source of ammonia (NH3) emissions, however the totality of ammonia emissions from an AD plant have not been previously quantified. The emissions from an AD plant processing food waste were estimated through integrating ambient NH3 concentration measurements, atmospheric dispersion modelling, and comparison with published emission factors (EFs). Two dispersion models (ADMS and a backwards Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) model) were applied to calculate emission estimates. The bLS model (WindTrax) was used to back-calculate a total (top-down) emission rate for the AD plant from a point of continuous NH3 measurement downwind from the plant. The back-calculated emission rates were then input to the ADMS forward dispersion model to make predictions of air NH3 concentrations around the site, and evaluated against weekly passive sampler NH3 measurements. As an alternative approach emission rates from individual sources within the plant were initially estimated by applying literature EFs to the available site parameters concerning the chemical composition of waste materials, room air concentrations, ventilation rates, etc. The individual emission rates were input to ADMS and later tuned by fitting the simulated ambient concentrations to the observed (passive sampler) concentration field, which gave an excellent match to measurements after an iterative process. The total emission from the AD plant thus estimated by a bottom-up approach was 16.8±1.8mgs(-1), which was significantly higher than the back-calculated top-down estimate (7.4±0.78mgs(-1)). The bottom-up approach offered a more realistic treatment of the source distribution within the plant area, while the complexity of the site was not ideally suited to the bLS method, thus the bottom-up method is believed to give a better estimate of emissions. The storage of solid digestate and the aerobic treatment of liquid effluents at the site were the greatest sources of NH3 emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Circulation and microplastic dispersion in the Chiemsee (Germany) investigated with numerical modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Laforsch, Christian; Piehl, Sarah; Ricchi, Antonio; Atwood, Elizabeth C.; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2017-04-01

The Chiemsee (measuring about 80 km2 and a maximum depth of 73 m) is a NATURA 2000 site and one of the major German lakes and plays a significant environmental role for the region. Moreover it is an important touristic destination, making its beaches and water quality highly valuable from a socio-economical viewpoint. As for most inland European aquatic environments, the Chiemsee was recently found to be contaminated by microplastic (i.e. plastic fragments smaller than 0.5 mm). Two main microplastics sources were identified in the Chiemsee: riverine inputs, and degradation of litter from touristic beaches. Hence, it is of interest to study lake circulation and the resulting microplastic dispersion from these sources in order to support activities to achieve a good environmental status. Here we present the first attempt to characterize the hydrodynamic processes of the Chiemsee with a high resolution 3D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The simulations were forced with observed riverine inputs and modeled atmospherical fields computed with a local implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Modeling results provide a first insight into the Chiemsee circulation system and contribute to understanding the dispersion pathways of microplastic particles from different sources. Furthermore, results can be used to highlight coastlines with higher risk of microplastic accumulation, identified using a set of Lagrangian simulations. The work was partially supported by the CNR Short Term Mobility grant.

Contrasting plant height can improve the control of rain-borne diseases in wheat cultivar mixture: modelling splash dispersal in 3-D canopies.

PubMed

Vidal, T; Gigot, C; de Vallavieille-Pope, C; Huber, L; Saint-Jean, S

2018-06-08

Growing cultivars differing by their disease resistance level together (cultivar mixtures) can reduce the propagation of diseases. Although architectural characteristics of cultivars are little considered in mixture design, they could have an effect on disease, in particular through spore dispersal by rain splash, which occurs over short distances. The objective of this work was to assess the impact of plant height of wheat cultivars in mixtures on splash dispersal of Zymoseptoria tritici, which causes septoria tritici leaf blotch. We used a modelling approach involving an explicit description of canopy architecture and splash dispersal processes. The dispersal model computed raindrop interception by a virtual canopy as well as the production, transport and interception of splash droplets carrying inoculum. We designed 3-D virtual canopies composed of susceptible and resistant plants, according to field measurements at the flowering stage. In numerical experiments, we tested different heights of virtual cultivars making up binary mixtures to assess the influence of this architectural trait on dispersal patterns of spore-carrying droplets. Inoculum interception decreased exponentially with the height relative to the main inoculum source (lower diseased leaves of susceptible plants), and little inoculum was intercepted further than 40 cm above the inoculum source. Consequently, tall plants intercepted less inoculum than smaller ones. Plants with twice the standard height intercepted 33 % less inoculum than standard height plants. In cases when the height of suscpeptible plants was doubled, inoculum interception by resistant leaves was 40 % higher. This physical barrier to spore-carrying droplet trajectories reduced inoculum interception by tall susceptible plants and was modulated by plant height differences between cultivars of a binary mixture. These results suggest that mixture effects on spore dispersal could be modulated by an adequate choice of architectural characteristics of cultivars. In particular, even small differences in plant height could reduce spore dispersal.

Use of dispersion modelling for Environmental Impact Assessment of biological air pollution from composting: Progress, problems and prospects.

PubMed

Douglas, P; Hayes, E T; Williams, W B; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Walsh, K; O'Driscoll, M; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

2017-12-01

With the increase in composting asa sustainable waste management option, biological air pollution (bioaerosols) from composting facilities have become a cause of increasing concern due to their potential health impacts. Estimating community exposure to bioaerosols is problematic due to limitations in current monitoring methods. Atmospheric dispersion modelling can be used to estimate exposure concentrations, however several issues arise from the lack of appropriate bioaerosol data to use as inputs into models, and the complexity of the emission sources at composting facilities. This paper analyses current progress in using dispersion models for bioaerosols, examines the remaining problems and provides recommendations for future prospects in this area. A key finding is the urgent need for guidance for model users to ensure consistent bioaerosol modelling practices. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The effect of gradational velocities and anisotropy on fault-zone trapped waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulley, A. K.; Eccles, J. D.; Kaipio, J. P.; Malin, P. E.

2017-08-01

Synthetic fault-zone trapped wave (FZTW) dispersion curves and amplitude responses for FL (Love) and FR (Rayleigh) type phases are analysed in transversely isotropic 1-D elastic models. We explore the effects of velocity gradients, anisotropy, source location and mechanism. These experiments suggest: (i) A smooth exponentially decaying velocity model produces a significantly different dispersion curve to that of a three-layer model, with the main difference being that Airy phases are not produced. (ii) The FZTW dispersion and amplitude information of a waveguide with transverse-isotropy depends mostly on the Shear wave velocities in the direction parallel with the fault, particularly if the fault zone to country-rock velocity contrast is small. In this low velocity contrast situation, fully isotropic approximations to a transversely isotropic velocity model can be made. (iii) Fault-aligned fractures and/or bedding in the fault zone that cause transverse-isotropy enhance the amplitude and wave-train length of the FR type FZTW. (iv) Moving the source and/or receiver away from the fault zone removes the higher frequencies first, similar to attenuation. (v) In most physically realistic cases, the radial component of the FR type FZTW is significantly smaller in amplitude than the transverse.

Ultrafine particles dispersion modeling in a street canyon: development and evaluation of a composite lattice Boltzmann model.

PubMed

Habilomatis, George; Chaloulakou, Archontoula

2013-10-01

Recently, a branch of particulate matter research concerns on ultrafine particles found in the urban environment, which originate, to a significant extent, from traffic sources. In urban street canyons, dispersion of ultrafine particles affects pedestrian's short term exposure and resident's long term exposure as well. The aim of the present work is the development and the evaluation of a composite lattice Boltzmann model to study the dispersion of ultrafine particles, in urban street canyon microenvironment. The proposed model has the potential to penetrate into the physics of this complex system. In order to evaluate the model performance against suitable experimental data, ultrafine particles levels have been monitored on an hourly basis for a period of 35 days, in a street canyon, in Athens area. The results of the comparative analysis are quite satisfactory. Furthermore, our modeled results are in a good agreement with the results of other computational and experimental studies. This work is a first attempt to study the dispersion of an air pollutant by application of the lattice Boltzmann method. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research on the middle-of-receiver-spread assumption of the MASW method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Y.; Xia, J.; Liu, J.; Xu, Y.; Liu, Q.

2009-01-01

The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method has been effectively used to determine near-surface shear- (S-) wave velocity. Estimating the S-wave velocity profile from Rayleigh-wave measurements is straightforward. A three-step process is required to obtain S-wave velocity profiles: acquisition of a multiple number of multichannel records along a linear survey line by use of the roll-along mode, extraction of dispersion curves of Rayleigh waves, and inversion of dispersion curves for an S-wave velocity profile for each shot gather. A pseudo-2D S-wave velocity section can be generated by aligning 1D S-wave velocity models. In this process, it is very important to understand where the inverted 1D S-wave velocity profile should be located: the midpoint of each spread (a middle-of-receiver-spread assumption) or somewhere between the source and the last receiver. In other words, the extracted dispersion curve is determined by the geophysical structure within the geophone spread or strongly affected by the source geophysical structure. In this paper, dispersion curves of synthetic datasets and a real-world example are calculated by fixing the receiver spread and changing the source location. Results demonstrate that the dispersion curves are mainly determined by structures within a receiver spread. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of magnetotelluric measurements over an electrically dispersive one-dimensional earth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patella, D.

1987-01-01

Frequency dispersion of electromagnetic parameters of earth materials has been widely documented in recent years. It is claimed that magnetotellurics (MT)may be significantly affected by dispersion. This paper studies the MT plane-wave interpretative problem for a one-dimensional earth characterized by the presence of dispersive layers. The theoretical properties of the MT field under the dispersion hypothesis, and the main features of the dispersion phenomenon are synthetically reviewed. The examination of previously published MT curve responses over some models of dispersive earth section shows that ambiguity can arise when interpreting MT data with no other source of information. Thus it maybemore » almost impossible to distinguish between the response of a dispersive section and an equally probable dispersion-free section. The dispersion magnetotelluric (DMT) method is proposed as a means to resolve the ambiguity. The DMT method is based on the execution, at the same site, of an MT sounding and of an always dispersion-free dc geoelectric deep sounding.« less

Assimilation of concentration measurements for retrieving multiple point releases in atmosphere: A least-squares approach to inverse modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarvesh Kumar; Rani, Raj

2015-10-01

The study addresses the identification of multiple point sources, emitting the same tracer, from their limited set of merged concentration measurements. The identification, here, refers to the estimation of locations and strengths of a known number of simultaneous point releases. The source-receptor relationship is described in the framework of adjoint modelling by using an analytical Gaussian dispersion model. A least-squares minimization framework, free from an initialization of the release parameters (locations and strengths), is presented to estimate the release parameters. This utilizes the distributed source information observable from the given monitoring design and number of measurements. The technique leads to an exact retrieval of the true release parameters when measurements are noise free and exactly described by the dispersion model. The inversion algorithm is evaluated using the real data from multiple (two, three and four) releases conducted during Fusion Field Trials in September 2007 at Dugway Proving Ground, Utah. The release locations are retrieved, on average, within 25-45 m of the true sources with the distance from retrieved to true source ranging from 0 to 130 m. The release strengths are also estimated within a factor of three to the true release rates. The average deviations in retrieval of source locations are observed relatively large in two release trials in comparison to three and four release trials.

Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

2016-08-01

Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the subkilometer resolution of 333 m is necessary to reproduce realistic air pollution patterns in this case of short-range transport over a complex terrain area. Globally, this work contributes to enrich the sparsely documented domain of real nested microscale air pollution modelling. This study dealing with the determination of the proper resolution grid and proper turbulence scheme, is of significant interest to the near-source and complex terrain air quality research community.

Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, P.; Frank, A.

2004-01-01

The possibility to calculate linear-source receptor relationships for the transport of atmospheric trace substances with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) running in backward mode is shown and presented with many tests and examples. This mode requires only minor modifications of the forward LPDM. The derivation includes the action of sources and of any first-order processes (transformation with prescribed rates, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay, etc.). The backward mode is computationally advantageous if the number of receptors is less than the number of sources considered. The combination of an LPDM with the backward (adjoint) methodology is especially attractive for the application to point measurements, which can be handled without artificial numerical diffusion. Practical hints are provided for source-receptor calculations with different settings, both in forward and backward mode. The equivalence of forward and backward calculations is shown in simple tests for release and sampling of particles, pure wet deposition, pure convective redistribution and realistic transport over a short distance. Furthermore, an application example explaining measurements of Cs-137 in Stockholm as transport from areas contaminated heavily in the Chernobyl disaster is included.

CFD MODELING OF FINE SCALE FLOW AND TRANSPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA, TEXAS

EPA Science Inventory

Fine scale modeling of flows and air quality in Houston, Texas is being performed; the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is being applied to investigate the influence of morphologic structures on the within-grid transport and dispersion of sources in grid models ...

A previously unreported type of seismic source in the firn layer of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lough, Amanda C.; Barcheck, C. Grace; Wiens, Douglas A.; Nyblade, Andrew; Anandakrishnan, Sridhar

2015-11-01

We identify a unique type of seismic source in the uppermost part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet recorded by temporary broadband seismic arrays in East Antarctica. These sources, termed "firnquakes," are characterized by dispersed surface wave trains with frequencies of 1-10 Hz detectable at distances up to 1000 km. Events show strong dispersed Rayleigh wave trains and an absence of observable body wave arrivals; most events also show weaker Love waves. Initial events were discovered by standard detection schemes; additional events were then detected with a correlation scanner using the initial arrivals as templates. We locate sources by determining the L2 misfit for a grid of potential source locations using Rayleigh wave arrival times and polarization directions. We then perform a multiple-filter analysis to calculate the Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion and invert the group velocity for shear velocity structure. The resulting velocity structure is used as an input model to calculate synthetic seismograms. Inverting the dispersion curves yields ice velocity structures consistent with a low-velocity firn layer ~100 m thick and show that velocity structure is laterally variable. The absence of observable body wave phases and the relative amplitudes of Rayleigh waves and noise constrain the source depth to be less than 20 m. The presence of Love waves for most events suggests the source is not isotropic. We propose the events are linked to the formation of small crevasses in the firn, and several events correlate with shallow crevasse fields mapped in satellite imagery.

Identifying sources of methane sampled in the Arctic using δ13C in CH4 and Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cain, Michelle; France, James; Pyle, John; Warwick, Nicola; Fisher, Rebecca; Lowry, Dave; Allen, Grant; O'Shea, Sebastian; Illingworth, Samuel; Jones, Ben; Gallagher, Martin; Welpott, Axel; Muller, Jennifer; Bauguitte, Stephane; George, Charles; Hayman, Garry; Manning, Alistair; Myhre, Catherine Lund; Lanoisellé, Mathias; Nisbet, Euan

2016-04-01

An airmass of enhanced methane was sampled during a research flight at ~600 m to ~2000 m altitude between the North coast of Norway and Svalbard on 21 July 2012. The largest source of methane in the summertime Arctic is wetland emissions. Did this enhancement in methane come from wetland emissions? The airmass was identified through continuous methane measurements using a Los Gatos fast greenhouse gas analyser on board the UK's BAe-146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) as part of the MAMM (Methane in the Arctic: Measurements and Modelling) campaign. A Lagrangian particle dispersion model (the UK Met Office's NAME model) was run backwards to identify potential methane source regions. This was combined with a methane emission inventory to create "pseudo observations" to compare with the aircraft observations. This modelling was used to constrain the δ13C CH4 wetland source signature (where δ13C CH4 is the ratio of 13C to 12C in methane), resulting in a most likely signature of -73‰ (±4‰7‰). The NAME back trajectories suggest a methane source region of north-western Russian wetlands, and -73‰ is consistent with in situ measurements of wetland methane at similar latitudes in Scandinavia. This analysis has allowed us to study emissions from remote regions for which we do not have in situ observations, giving us an extra tool in the determination of the isotopic source variation of global methane emissions.

ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CHALLENGES WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

In the field of environmental engineering, modeling tools are playing an ever larger role in addressing air quality issues, including source pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and human exposure risks. More detailed modeling of environmental flows requires tools for c...

Dispersion Distance and the Matter Distribution of the Universe in Dispersion Space.

PubMed

Masui, Kiyoshi Wesley; Sigurdson, Kris

2015-09-18

We propose that "standard pings," brief broadband radio impulses, can be used to study the three-dimensional clustering of matter in the Universe even in the absence of redshift information. The dispersion of radio waves as they travel through the intervening plasma can, like redshift, be used as a cosmological distance measure. Because of inhomogeneities in the electron density along the line of sight, dispersion is an imperfect proxy for radial distance and we show that this leads to calculable dispersion-space distortions in the apparent clustering of sources. Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are a new class of radio transients that are the prototypical standard ping and, due to their high observed dispersion, have been interpreted as originating at cosmological distances. The rate of fast radio bursts has been estimated to be several thousand over the whole sky per day and, if cosmological, the sources of these events should trace the large-scale structure of the Universe. We calculate the dispersion-space power spectra for a simple model where electrons and FRBs are biased tracers of the large-scale structure of the Universe, and we show that the clustering signal could be measured using as few as 10 000 events. Such a survey is in line with what may be achieved with upcoming wide-field radio telescopes.

Dispersion Distance and the Matter Distribution of the Universe in Dispersion Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masui, Kiyoshi Wesley; Sigurdson, Kris

2015-09-01

We propose that "standard pings," brief broadband radio impulses, can be used to study the three-dimensional clustering of matter in the Universe even in the absence of redshift information. The dispersion of radio waves as they travel through the intervening plasma can, like redshift, be used as a cosmological distance measure. Because of inhomogeneities in the electron density along the line of sight, dispersion is an imperfect proxy for radial distance and we show that this leads to calculable dispersion-space distortions in the apparent clustering of sources. Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are a new class of radio transients that are the prototypical standard ping and, due to their high observed dispersion, have been interpreted as originating at cosmological distances. The rate of fast radio bursts has been estimated to be several thousand over the whole sky per day and, if cosmological, the sources of these events should trace the large-scale structure of the Universe. We calculate the dispersion-space power spectra for a simple model where electrons and FRBs are biased tracers of the large-scale structure of the Universe, and we show that the clustering signal could be measured using as few as 10 000 events. Such a survey is in line with what may be achieved with upcoming wide-field radio telescopes.

Comparative Assessment of Particulate Air Pollution Exposure from Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator Emissions

PubMed Central

Ashworth, Danielle C.; Fuller, Gary W.; Toledano, Mireille B.; Font, Anna; Elliott, Paul; Hansell, Anna L.; de Hoogh, Kees

2013-01-01

Background. Research to date on health effects associated with incineration has found limited evidence of health risks, but many previous studies have been constrained by poor exposure assessment. This paper provides a comparative assessment of atmospheric dispersion modelling and distance from source (a commonly used proxy for exposure) as exposure assessment methods for pollutants released from incinerators. Methods. Distance from source and the atmospheric dispersion model ADMS-Urban were used to characterise ambient exposures to particulates from two municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in the UK. Additionally an exploration of the sensitivity of the dispersion model simulations to input parameters was performed. Results. The model output indicated extremely low ground level concentrations of PM10, with maximum concentrations of <0.01 μg/m3. Proximity and modelled PM10 concentrations for both MSWIs at postcode level were highly correlated when using continuous measures (Spearman correlation coefficients ~ 0.7) but showed poor agreement for categorical measures (deciles or quintiles, Cohen's kappa coefficients ≤ 0.5). Conclusion. To provide the most appropriate estimate of ambient exposure from MSWIs, it is essential that incinerator characteristics, magnitude of emissions, and surrounding meteorological and topographical conditions are considered. Reducing exposure misclassification is particularly important in environmental epidemiology to aid detection of low-level risks. PMID:23935644

Teaching and communicating dispersion in hydrogeology, with emphasis on the applicability of the Fickian model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitanidis, P. K.

2017-08-01

The process of dispersion in porous media is the effect of combined variability in fluid velocity and concentration at scales smaller than the ones resolved that contributes to spreading and mixing. It is usually introduced in textbooks and taught in classes through the Fick-Scheidegger parameterization, which is introduced as a scientific law of universal validity. This parameterization is based on observations in bench-scale laboratory experiments using homogeneous media. Fickian means that dispersive flux is proportional to the gradient of the resolved concentration while the Scheidegger parameterization is a particular way to compute the dispersion coefficients. The unresolved scales are thus associated with the pore-grain geometry that is ignored when the composite pore-grain medium is replaced by a homogeneous continuum. However, the challenge faced in practice is how to account for dispersion in numerical models that discretize the domain into blocks, often cubic meters in size, that contain multiple geologic facies. Although the Fick-Scheidegger parameterization is by far the one most commonly used, its validity has been questioned. This work presents a method of teaching dispersion that emphasizes the physical basis of dispersion and highlights the conditions under which a Fickian dispersion model is justified. In particular, we show that Fickian dispersion has a solid physical basis provided that an equilibrium condition is met. The issue of the Scheidegger parameterization is more complex but it is shown that the approximation that the dispersion coefficients should scale linearly with the mean velocity is often reasonable, at least as a practical approximation, but may not necessarily be always appropriate. Generally in Hydrogeology, the Scheidegger feature of constant dispersivity is considered as a physical law and inseparable from the Fickian model, but both perceptions are wrong. We also explain why Fickian dispersion fails under certain conditions, such as dispersion inside and directly upstream of a contaminant source. Other issues discussed are the relevance of column tests and confusion regarding the meaning of terms dispersion and Fickian.

Short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment via an integrated modeling system for nuclear power plants in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ni-Bin; Weng, Yu-Chi

2013-03-01

Short-term predictions of potential impacts from accidental release of various radionuclides at nuclear power plants are acutely needed, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. An integrated modeling system that provides expert services to assess the consequences of accidental or intentional releases of radioactive materials to the atmosphere has received wide attention. These scenarios can be initiated either by accident due to human, software, or mechanical failures, or from intentional acts such as sabotage and radiological dispersal devices. Stringent action might be required just minutes after the occurrence of accidental or intentional release. To fulfill the basic functions of emergency preparedness and response systems, previous studies seldom consider the suitability of air pollutant dispersion models or the connectivity between source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models in a holistic context for decision support. Therefore, the Gaussian plume and puff models, which are only suitable for illustrating neutral air pollutants in flat terrain conditional to limited meteorological situations, are frequently used to predict the impact from accidental release of industrial sources. In situations with complex terrain or special meteorological conditions, the proposing emergency response actions might be questionable and even intractable to decisionmakers responsible for maintaining public health and environmental quality. This study is a preliminary effort to integrate the source term, dispersion, and exposure assessment models into a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) to tackle the complex issues for short-term emergency response planning and risk assessment at nuclear power plants. Through a series model screening procedures, we found that the diagnostic (objective) wind field model with the aid of sufficient on-site meteorological monitoring data was the most applicable model to promptly address the trend of local wind field patterns. However, most of the hazardous materials being released into the environment from nuclear power plants are not neutral pollutants, so the particle and multi-segment puff models can be regarded as the most suitable models to incorporate into the output of the diagnostic wind field model in a modern emergency preparedness and response system. The proposed SDSS illustrates the state-of-the-art system design based on the situation of complex terrain in South Taiwan. This system design of SDSS with 3-dimensional animation capability using a tailored source term model in connection with ArcView® Geographical Information System map layers and remote sensing images is useful for meeting the design goal of nuclear power plants located in complex terrain.

Impact of transverse and longitudinal dispersion on first-order degradation rate constant estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenback, Greg A.; Ong, Say Kee; Rogers, Shane W.; Kjartanson, Bruce H.

2004-09-01

A two-dimensional analytical model is employed for estimating the first-order degradation rate constant of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) in contaminated groundwater under steady-state conditions. The model may utilize all aqueous concentration data collected downgradient of a source area, but does not require that any data be collected along the plume centerline. Using a least squares fit of the model to aqueous concentrations measured in monitoring wells, degradation rate constants were estimated at a former manufactured gas plant (FMGP) site in the Midwest U.S. The estimated degradation rate constants are 0.0014, 0.0034, 0.0031, 0.0019, and 0.0053 day -1 for acenaphthene, naphthalene, benzene, ethylbenzene, and toluene, respectively. These estimated rate constants were as low as one-half those estimated with the one-dimensional (centerline) approach of Buscheck and Alcantar [Buscheck, T.E., Alcantar, C.M., 1995. Regression techniques and analytical solutions to demonstrate intrinsic bioremediation. In: Hinchee, R.E., Wilson, J.T., Downey, D.C. (Eds.), Intrinsic Bioremediation, Battelle Press, Columbus, OH, pp. 109-116] which does not account for transverse dispersivity. Varying the transverse and longitudinal dispersivity values over one order of magnitude for toluene data obtained from the FMGP site resulted in nearly a threefold variation in the estimated degradation rate constant—highlighting the importance of reliable estimates of the dispersion coefficients for obtaining reasonable estimates of the degradation rate constants. These results have significant implications for decision making and site management where overestimation of a degradation rate may result in remediation times and bioconversion factors that exceed expectations. For a complex source area or non-steady-state plume, a superposition of analytical models that incorporate longitudinal and transverse dispersion and time may be used at sites where the centerline method would not be applicable.

Simulation of Atmospheric Dispersion of Elevated Releases from Point Sources in Mississippi Gulf Coast with Different Meteorological Data

PubMed Central

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Srinivas, Challa Venkata; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Tuluri, Francis; White, Loren D.; Baham, Julius M.; Young, John H.; Hughes, Robert; Patrick, Chuck; Hardy, Mark G.; Swanier, Shelton J.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric dispersion calculations are made using the HYSPLIT Particle Dispersion Model for studying the transport and dispersion of air-borne releases from point elevated sources in the Mississippi Gulf coastal region. Simulations are performed separately with three meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolution for a typical summer period in 1–3 June 2006 representing a weak synoptic condition. The first two data are the NCEP global and regional analyses (FNL, EDAS) while the third is a meso-scale simulation generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested domains at a fine resolution of 4 km. The meso-scale model results show significant temporal and spatial variations in the meteorological fields as a result of the combined influences of the land-sea breeze circulation, the large scale flow field and diurnal alteration in the mixing depth across the coast. The model predicted SO2 concentrations showed that the trajectory and the concentration distribution varied in the three cases of input data. While calculations with FNL data show an overall higher correlation, there is a significant positive bias during daytime and negative bias during night time. Calculations with EDAS fields are significantly below the observations during both daytime and night time though plume behavior follows the coastal circulation. The diurnal plume behavior and its distribution are better simulated using the mesoscale WRF meteorological fields in the coastal environment suggesting its suitability for pollution dispersion impact assessment in the local scale. Results of different cases of simulation, comparison with observations, correlation and bias in each case are presented. PMID:19440433

Community-LINE Source Model (C-LINE) to estimate roadway emissions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

C-LINE is a web-based model that estimates emissions and dispersion of toxic air pollutants for roadways in the U.S. This reduced-form air quality model examines what-if scenarios for changes in emissions such as traffic volume fleet mix and vehicle speed.

Evaluation of near field atmospheric dispersion around nuclear facilities using a Lorentzian distribution methodology.

PubMed

Hawkley, Gavin

2014-12-01

Atmospheric dispersion modeling within the near field of a nuclear facility typically applies a building wake correction to the Gaussian plume model, whereby a point source is modeled as a plane source. The plane source results in greater near field dilution and reduces the far field effluent concentration. However, the correction does not account for the concentration profile within the near field. Receptors of interest, such as the maximally exposed individual, may exist within the near field and thus the realm of building wake effects. Furthermore, release parameters and displacement characteristics may be unknown, particularly during upset conditions. Therefore, emphasis is placed upon the need to analyze and estimate an enveloping concentration profile within the near field of a release. This investigation included the analysis of 64 air samples collected over 128 wk. Variables of importance were then derived from the measurement data, and a methodology was developed that allowed for the estimation of Lorentzian-based dispersion coefficients along the lateral axis of the near field recirculation cavity; the development of recirculation cavity boundaries; and conservative evaluation of the associated concentration profile. The results evaluated the effectiveness of the Lorentzian distribution methodology for estimating near field releases and emphasized the need to place air-monitoring stations appropriately for complete concentration characterization. Additionally, the importance of the sampling period and operational conditions were discussed to balance operational feedback and the reporting of public dose.

INPUFF: A SINGLE SOURCE GAUSSIAN PUFF DISPERSION ALGORITHM. USER'S GUIDE

EPA Science Inventory

INPUFF is a Gaussian INtegrated PUFF model. The Gaussian puff diffusion equation is used to compute the contribution to the concentration at each receptor from each puff every time step. Computations in INPUFF can be made for a single point source at up to 25 receptor locations. ...

A Management Tool for Assessing Aquaculture Environmental Impacts in Chilean Patagonian Fjords: Integrating Hydrodynamic and Pellets Dispersion Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tironi, Antonio; Marin, Víctor H.; Campuzano, Francisco J.

2010-05-01

This article introduces a management tool for salmon farming, with a scope in the local sustainability of salmon aquaculture of the Aysen Fjord, Chilean Patagonia. Based on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) principles, the tool combines a large 3-level nested hydrodynamic model, a particle tracking module and a GIS application into an assessment tool for particulate waste dispersal of salmon farming activities. The model offers an open source alternative to particulate waste modeling and evaluation, contributing with valuable information for local decision makers in the process of locating new facilities and monitoring stations.

Large-Eddy Simulation of Chemically Reactive Pollutant Transport from a Point Source in Urban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Tangzheng; Liu, Chun-Ho

2013-04-01

Most air pollutants are chemically reactive so using inert scalar as the tracer in pollutant dispersion modelling would often overlook their impact on urban inhabitants. In this study, large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to examine the plume dispersion of chemically reactive pollutants in a hypothetical atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in neutral stratification. The irreversible chemistry mechanism of ozone (O3) titration is integrated into the LES model. Nitric oxide (NO) is emitted from an elevated point source in a rectangular spatial domain doped with O3. The LES results are compared well with the wind tunnel results available in literature. Afterwards, the LES model is applied to idealized two-dimensional (2D) street canyons of unity aspect ratio to study the behaviours of chemically reactive plume over idealized urban roughness. The relation among various time scales of reaction/turbulence and dimensionless number are analysed.

A sensitivity analysis of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere. [Mt. Fuego, Guatemala eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, C. F.

1979-01-01

A computer sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the uncertainties involved in the calculation of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere using a 2 dimensional model. The Fuego volcanic event of 1974 was used. Aerosol dispersion processes that were included are: transport, sedimentation, gas phase sulfur chemistry, and aerosol growth. Calculated uncertainties are established from variations in the stratospheric aerosol layer decay times at 37 latitude for each dispersion process. Model profiles are also compared with lidar measurements. Results of the computer study are quite sensitive (factor of 2) to the assumed volcanic aerosol source function and the large variations in the parameterized transport between 15 and 20 km at subtropical latitudes. Sedimentation effects are uncertain by up to a factor of 1.5 because of the lack of aerosol size distribution data. The aerosol chemistry and growth, assuming that the stated mechanisms are correct, are essentially complete in several months after the eruption and cannot explain the differences between measured and modeled results.

Impact localization in dispersive waveguides based on energy-attenuation of waves with the traveled distance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alajlouni, Sa'ed; Albakri, Mohammad; Tarazaga, Pablo

2018-05-01

An algorithm is introduced to solve the general multilateration (source localization) problem in a dispersive waveguide. The algorithm is designed with the intention of localizing impact forces in a dispersive floor, and can potentially be used to localize and track occupants in a building using vibration sensors connected to the lower surface of the walking floor. The lower the wave frequencies generated by the impact force, the more accurate the localization is expected to be. An impact force acting on a floor, generates a seismic wave that gets distorted as it travels away from the source. This distortion is noticeable even over relatively short traveled distances, and is mainly caused by the dispersion phenomenon among other reasons, therefore using conventional localization/multilateration methods will produce localization error values that are highly variable and occasionally large. The proposed localization approach is based on the fact that the wave's energy, calculated over some time window, decays exponentially as the wave travels away from the source. Although localization methods that assume exponential decay exist in the literature (in the field of wireless communications), these methods have only been considered for wave propagation in non-dispersive media, in addition to the limiting assumption required by these methods that the source must not coincide with a sensor location. As a result, these methods cannot be applied to the indoor localization problem in their current form. We show how our proposed method is different from the other methods, and that it overcomes the source-sensor location coincidence limitation. Theoretical analysis and experimental data will be used to motivate and justify the pursuit of the proposed approach for localization in a dispersive medium. Additionally, hammer impacts on an instrumented floor section inside an operational building, as well as finite element model simulations, are used to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. It is shown that the algorithm produces promising results providing a foundation for further future development and optimization.

Development and Evaluation of Model Algorithms to Account for Chemical Transformation in the Nearroad Environment

EPA Science Inventory

We describe the development and evaluation of two new model algorithms for NOx chemistry in the R-LINE near-road dispersion model for traffic sources. With increased urbanization, there is increased mobility leading to higher amount of traffic related activity on a global scale. ...

Photochemical grid model performance with varying horizontal grid resolution and sub-grid plume treatment for the Martins Creek near-field SO2 study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Kirk R.; Hawkins, Andy; Kelly, James T.

2014-12-01

Near source modeling is needed to assess primary and secondary pollutant impacts from single sources and single source complexes. Source-receptor relationships need to be resolved from tens of meters to tens of kilometers. Dispersion models are typically applied for near-source primary pollutant impacts but lack complex photochemistry. Photochemical models provide a realistic chemical environment but are typically applied using grid cell sizes that may be larger than the distance between sources and receptors. It is important to understand the impacts of grid resolution and sub-grid plume treatments on photochemical modeling of near-source primary pollution gradients. Here, the CAMx photochemical grid model is applied using multiple grid resolutions and sub-grid plume treatment for SO2 and compared with a receptor mesonet largely impacted by nearby sources approximately 3-17 km away in a complex terrain environment. Measurements are compared with model estimates of SO2 at 4- and 1-km resolution, both with and without sub-grid plume treatment and inclusion of finer two-way grid nests. Annual average estimated SO2 mixing ratios are highest nearest the sources and decrease as distance from the sources increase. In general, CAMx estimates of SO2 do not compare well with the near-source observations when paired in space and time. Given the proximity of these sources and receptors, accuracy in wind vector estimation is critical for applications that pair pollutant predictions and observations in time and space. In typical permit applications, predictions and observations are not paired in time and space and the entire distributions of each are directly compared. Using this approach, model estimates using 1-km grid resolution best match the distribution of observations and are most comparable to similar studies that used dispersion and Lagrangian modeling systems. Model-estimated SO2 increases as grid cell size decreases from 4 km to 250 m. However, it is notable that the 1-km model estimates using 1-km meteorological model input are higher than the 1-km model simulation that used interpolated 4-km meteorology. The inclusion of sub-grid plume treatment did not improve model skill in predicting SO2 in time and space and generally acts to keep emitted mass aloft.

Greening Solutions Applicable in the Tailing Ponds Tăusani and Bosneag from Moldova Nouă

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burlacu, I. F.; Deak, G.; Raischi, M. C.; Daescu, A.; Zamfir, S.; Uritescu, B.; Cirstinoiu, C.; Olteanu, M. V.

2017-06-01

This study aims to propose solutions for greening of the tailings ponds resulted from mining activities with transboundary impacts. As case study, are proposed for greening the Boşneag and Tăuşani tailing ponds because they pollute Moldova Nouă, Danube and towns on the Serbian side of the Danube with particles in suspension. We analyzed four scenarios of modeling dispersion of particles in suspension (copper and other heavy metals) from the Tăuşani and Boşneag tailing ponds in the theoretical background where pollution has cross-border nature and require studying the transport of pollutants over a long distance from the source and modeling dispersion of particles in suspension in the atmosphere, these were performed using TAPM model, able to simulate the aspects mentioned. After running the software for modeling the dispersion of particles, was revealed that the pollution generated from the pollution sources taked into consideration is very high and significantly affects quality of life on considerable areas both in Romania and Serbia, thus amplifying the need to implement greening solutions of the analyzed area. Following the results obtained are presented three alternatives solutions for greening the area studied, aiming at minimizing the impact on the environmental and population.

SPRAYTRAN 1.0 User’s Guide: A GIS-Based Atmospheric Spray Droplet Dispersion Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allwine, K Jerry; Rutz, Frederick C.; Droppo, James G.

SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) is a comprehensive dispersion modeling system that is used to simulate the offsite drift of pesticides from spray applications. SPRAYTRAN functions as a console application within Environmental System Research Institute’s ArcMap Geographic Information System (Version 9.x) and integrates the widely-used, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved CALifornia PUFF (CALPUFF) dispersion model and model components to simulate longer-range transport and diffusion in variable terrain and spatially/temporally varying meteorological (e.g., wind) fields. Area sources, which are used to define spray blocks in SPRAYTRAN, are initialized using output files generated from a separate aerial-spray-application model called AGDISP (AGricultural DISPersal). The AGDISPmore » model is used for estimating the amount of pesticide deposited to the spray block based on spraying characteristics (e.g., pesticide type, spray nozzles, and aircraft type) and then simulating the near-field (less than 300-m) drift from a single pesticide application. The fraction of pesticide remaining airborne from the AGDISP near-field simulation is then used by SPRAYTRAN for simulating longer-range (greater than 300 m) drift and deposition of the pesticide.« less

Connectivity and propagule sources composition drive ditch plant metacommunity structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favre-Bac, Lisa; Ernoult, Aude; Mony, Cendrine; Rantier, Yann; Nabucet, Jean; Burel, Françoise

2014-11-01

The fragmentation of agricultural landscapes has a major impact on biodiversity. In addition to habitat loss, dispersal limitation increasingly appears as a significant driver of biodiversity decline. Landscape linear elements, like ditches, may reduce the negative impacts of fragmentation by enhancing connectivity for many organisms, in addition to providing refuge habitats. To characterize these effects, we investigated the respective roles of propagule source composition and connectivity at the landscape scale on hydrochorous and non-hydrochorous ditch bank plant metacommunities. Twenty-seven square sites (0.5 km2 each) were selected in an agricultural lowland of northern France. At each site, plant communities were sampled on nine ditch banks (totaling 243 ditches). Variables characterizing propagule sources composition and connectivity were calculated for landscape mosaic and ditch network models. The landscape mosaic influenced only non-hydrochorous species, while the ditch network impacted both hydrochorous and non-hydrochorous species. Non-hydrochorous metacommunities were dependent on a large set of land-use elements, either within the landscape mosaic or adjacent to the ditch network, whereas hydrochorous plant metacommunities were only impacted by the presence of ditches adjacent to crops and roads. Ditch network connectivity also influenced both hydrochorous and non-hydrochorous ditch bank plant metacommunity structure, suggesting that beyond favoring hydrochory, ditches may also enhance plant dispersal by acting on other dispersal vectors. Increasing propagule sources heterogeneity and connectivity appeared to decrease within-metacommunity similarity within landscapes. Altogether, our results suggest that the ditch network's composition and configuration impacts plant metacommunity structure by affecting propagule dispersal possibilities, with contrasted consequences depending on species' dispersal vectors.

A consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks: a reliable numerical method.

PubMed

Bürger, Raimund; Diehl, Stefan; Farås, Sebastian; Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena

2013-01-01

The consistent modelling methodology for secondary settling tanks (SSTs) leads to a partial differential equation (PDE) of nonlinear convection-diffusion type as a one-dimensional model for the solids concentration as a function of depth and time. This PDE includes a flux that depends discontinuously on spatial position modelling hindered settling and bulk flows, a singular source term describing the feed mechanism, a degenerating term accounting for sediment compressibility, and a dispersion term for turbulence. In addition, the solution itself is discontinuous. A consistent, reliable and robust numerical method that properly handles these difficulties is presented. Many constitutive relations for hindered settling, compression and dispersion can be used within the model, allowing the user to switch on and off effects of interest depending on the modelling goal as well as investigate the suitability of certain constitutive expressions. Simulations show the effect of the dispersion term on effluent suspended solids and total sludge mass in the SST. The focus is on correct implementation whereas calibration and validation are not pursued.

Model-Free Stochastic Localization of CBRN Releases

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis,‡ Senior Member, IEEE Abstract—We present a novel two-stage methodology for locating a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or...Nuclear (CBRN) source in an urban area using a network of sensors. In contrast to earlier work, our approach does not solve an inverse dispersion problem...but relies on data obtained from a simulation of the CBRN dispersion to obtain probabilistic descriptors of sensor measurements under a variety of CBRN

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderlin, J.S.; Waser, P.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

VALIDATION OF A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING POLLUTION EMISSION RATES FROM AREA SOURCES USING OPEN-PATH FTIR SEPCTROSCOPY AND DISPERSION MODELING TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

The paper describes a methodology developed to estimate emissions factors for a variety of different area sources in a rapid, accurate, and cost effective manner. he methodology involves using an open-path Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to measure concentrations o...

Investigation of structural heterogeneity at the SPE site using combined P–wave travel times and Rg phase velocities

DOE PAGES

Rowe, Charlotte A.; Patton, Howard J.

2015-10-01

Here, we present analyses of the 2D seismic structure beneath Source Physics Experiments (SPE) geophone lines that extended radially at 100 m spacing from 100 to 2000 m from the source borehole. With seismic sources at only one end of the geophone lines, standard refraction profiling methods cannot resolve seismic velocity structures unambiguously. In previous work, we demonstrated overall agreement between body-wave refraction modeling and Rg dispersion curves for the least complex of the five lines. A more detailed inspection supports a 2D reinterpretation of the structure. We obtained Rg phase velocity measurements in both the time and frequency domains,more » then used iterative adjustment of the initial 1D body-wave model to predict Rg dispersion curves to fit the observed values. Our method applied to the most topographically severe of the geophone lines is supplemented with a 2D ray-tracing approach, whose application to P-wave arrivals supports the Rg analysis. In addition, midline sources will allow us to refine our characterization in future work.« less

An implicit dispersive transport algorithm for the US Geological Survey MOC3D solute-transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kipp, K.L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Hornberger, G.Z.

1998-01-01

This report documents an extension to the U.S. Geological Survey MOC3D transport model that incorporates an implicit-in-time difference approximation for the dispersive transport equation, including source/sink terms. The original MOC3D transport model (Version 1) uses the method of characteristics to solve the transport equation on the basis of the velocity field. The original MOC3D solution algorithm incorporates particle tracking to represent advective processes and an explicit finite-difference formulation to calculate dispersive fluxes. The new implicit procedure eliminates several stability criteria required for the previous explicit formulation. This allows much larger transport time increments to be used in dispersion-dominated problems. The decoupling of advective and dispersive transport in MOC3D, however, is unchanged. With the implicit extension, the MOC3D model is upgraded to Version 2. A description of the numerical method of the implicit dispersion calculation, the data-input requirements and output options, and the results of simulator testing and evaluation are presented. Version 2 of MOC3D was evaluated for the same set of problems used for verification of Version 1. These test results indicate that the implicit calculation of Version 2 matches the accuracy of Version 1, yet is more efficient than the explicit calculation for transport problems that are characterized by a grid Peclet number less than about 1.0.

Dispersion analysis of passive surface-wave noise generated during hydraulic-fracturing operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forghani-Arani, Farnoush; Willis, Mark; Snieder, Roel; Haines, Seth S.; Behura, Jyoti; Batzle, Mike; Davidson, Michael

2014-01-01

Surface-wave dispersion analysis is useful for estimating near-surface shear-wave velocity models, designing receiver arrays, and suppressing surface waves. Here, we analyze whether passive seismic noise generated during hydraulic-fracturing operations can be used to extract surface-wave dispersion characteristics. Applying seismic interferometry to noise measurements, we extract surface waves by cross-correlating several minutes of passive records; this approach is distinct from previous studies that used hours or days of passive records for cross-correlation. For comparison, we also perform dispersion analysis for an active-source array that has some receivers in common with the passive array. The active and passive data show good agreement in the dispersive character of the fundamental-mode surface-waves. For the higher mode surface waves, however, active and passive data resolve the dispersive properties at different frequency ranges. To demonstrate an application of dispersion analysis, we invert the observed surface-wave dispersion characteristics to determine the near-surface, one-dimensional shear-wave velocity.

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Andria; Paciorek, Christopher J.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Goring, Simon; Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Andria; Paciorek, Christopher J.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Goring, Simon; Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-04-01

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Natural gas availability and ambient air quality in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans industrial complex

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fieler, E.R.; Harrison, D.P.

1978-02-26

Three scenarios were modeled for the Baton Rouge/New Orleans area for 1985: one assumes the substitution of residual oil (0.7% sulfur) for gas to decrease gas-burning stationary sources from 80 to 8% and the use of properly designed stacks for large emitters; the second makes identical gas supply assumptions but adds proper stack dispersion for medium as well as large emitters; and the third is based on 16% gas-burning stationary sources. The Climatological Dispersion Model was used to translate (1974) emission rates into ambient air concentrations. Growth rates for residential, commercial, and transportation sources, but not industry, were considered. Themore » results show that proper policies, which would require not only tall stacks for large oil burning units (and for intermediate units also in the areas of high industrial concentration), but also the careful location of new plants would permit continued industrial expansion without severe air pollution problems.« less

Bayesian probabilistic approach for inverse source determination from limited and noisy chemical or biological sensor concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yee, Eugene

2007-04-01

Although a great deal of research effort has been focused on the forward prediction of the dispersion of contaminants (e.g., chemical and biological warfare agents) released into the turbulent atmosphere, much less work has been directed toward the inverse prediction of agent source location and strength from the measured concentration, even though the importance of this problem for a number of practical applications is obvious. In general, the inverse problem of source reconstruction is ill-posed and unsolvable without additional information. It is demonstrated that a Bayesian probabilistic inferential framework provides a natural and logically consistent method for source reconstruction from a limited number of noisy concentration data. In particular, the Bayesian approach permits one to incorporate prior knowledge about the source as well as additional information regarding both model and data errors. The latter enables a rigorous determination of the uncertainty in the inference of the source parameters (e.g., spatial location, emission rate, release time, etc.), hence extending the potential of the methodology as a tool for quantitative source reconstruction. A model (or, source-receptor relationship) that relates the source distribution to the concentration data measured by a number of sensors is formulated, and Bayesian probability theory is used to derive the posterior probability density function of the source parameters. A computationally efficient methodology for determination of the likelihood function for the problem, based on an adjoint representation of the source-receptor relationship, is described. Furthermore, we describe the application of efficient stochastic algorithms based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for sampling from the posterior distribution of the source parameters, the latter of which is required to undertake the Bayesian computation. The Bayesian inferential methodology for source reconstruction is validated against real dispersion data for two cases involving contaminant dispersion in highly disturbed flows over urban and complex environments where the idealizations of horizontal homogeneity and/or temporal stationarity in the flow cannot be applied to simplify the problem. Furthermore, the methodology is applied to the case of reconstruction of multiple sources.

Mapping air quality zones for coastal urban centers.

PubMed

Freeman, Brian; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Thé, Jesse; Munshed, Mohammad; Faisal, Shah; Abdullah, Meshal; Al Aseed, Athari

2017-05-01

This study presents a new method that incorporates modern air dispersion models allowing local terrain and land-sea breeze effects to be considered along with political and natural boundaries for more accurate mapping of air quality zones (AQZs) for coastal urban centers. This method uses local coastal wind patterns and key urban air pollution sources in each zone to more accurately calculate air pollutant concentration statistics. The new approach distributes virtual air pollution sources within each small grid cell of an area of interest and analyzes a puff dispersion model for a full year's worth of 1-hr prognostic weather data. The difference of wind patterns in coastal and inland areas creates significantly different skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics for the annually averaged pollutant concentrations at ground level receptor points for each grid cell. Plotting the S-K data highlights grouping of sources predominantly impacted by coastal winds versus inland winds. The application of the new method is demonstrated through a case study for the nation of Kuwait by developing new AQZs to support local air management programs. The zone boundaries established by the S-K method were validated by comparing MM5 and WRF prognostic meteorological weather data used in the air dispersion modeling, a support vector machine classifier was trained to compare results with the graphical classification method, and final zones were compared with data collected from Earth observation satellites to confirm locations of high-exposure-risk areas. The resulting AQZs are more accurate and support efficient management strategies for air quality compliance targets effected by local coastal microclimates. A novel method to determine air quality zones in coastal urban areas is introduced using skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics calculated from grid concentrations results of air dispersion models. The method identifies land-sea breeze effects that can be used to manage local air quality in areas of similar microclimates.

Constraints on Lorentz Invariance Violation from Fermi -Large Area Telescope Observations of Gamma-Ray Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasileiou, V.; Jacholkowska, A.; Piron, F.; Bolmont, J.; Courturier, C.; Granot, J.; Stecker, Floyd William; Cohen-Tanugi, J.; Longo, F.

2013-01-01

We analyze the MeV/GeV emission from four bright Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) observed by the Fermi-Large Area Telescope to produce robust, stringent constraints on a dependence of the speed of light in vacuo on the photon energy (vacuum dispersion), a form of Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) allowed by some Quantum Gravity (QG) theories. First, we use three different and complementary techniques to constrain the total degree of dispersion observed in the data. Additionally, using a maximally conservative set of assumptions on possible source-intrinsic spectral-evolution effects, we constrain any vacuum dispersion solely attributed to LIV. We then derive limits on the "QG energy scale" (the energy scale that LIV-inducing QG effects become important, E(sub QG)) and the coefficients of the Standard Model Extension. For the subluminal case (where high energy photons propagate more slowly than lower energy photons) and without taking into account any source-intrinsic dispersion, our most stringent limits (at 95% CL) are obtained from GRB 090510 and are E(sub QG,1) > 7.6 times the Planck energy (E(sub Pl)) and E(sub QG,2) > 1.3×10(exp 11) GeV for linear and quadratic leading order LIV-induced vacuum dispersion, respectively. These limits improve the latest constraints by Fermi and H.E.S.S. by a factor of approx. 2. Our results disfavor any class of models requiring E(sub QG,1) < or approx. E(sub Pl)

Constraints on Lorentz invariance violation from Fermi -Large Area Telescope observations of gamma-ray bursts

DOE PAGES

Vasileiou, V.; Jacholkowska, A.; Piron, F.; ...

2013-06-04

For this research, we analyze the MeV/GeV emission from four bright gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope to produce robust, stringent constraints on a dependence of the speed of light in vacuo on the photon energy (vacuum dispersion), a form of Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) allowed by some quantum gravity (QG) theories. First, we use three different and complementary techniques to constrain the total degree of dispersion observed in the data. Additionally, using a maximally conservative set of assumptions on possible source-intrinsic, spectral-evolution effects, we constrain any vacuum dispersion solely attributed to LIV. We then derivemore » limits on the QG energy scale (the energy scale where LIV-inducing QG effects become strong, E QG) and the coefficients of the Standard Model Extension. For the subluminal case (where high-energy photons propagate more slowly than lower-energy photons) and without taking into account any source-intrinsic dispersion, our most stringent limits (at 95% C.L.) are obtained from GRB 090510 and are E QG,1 > 7.6 times the Planck energy (E Pl) and E QG,2 > 1.3 × 10 11 GeV for linear and quadratic leading-order LIV-induced vacuum dispersion, respectively. In conclusion, these limits improve the latest constraints by Fermi and H.E.S.S. by a factor of ~2 . Our results disfavor any class of models requiring E QG,1 ≲ E Pl .« less

2.3. Global-scale atmospheric dispersion of microorganisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Dale W.; Gonzalez-Martin, Cristina; Hoose, C.; Smith, D.J.; Delort, Anne-Marie; Amato, Pierre

2018-01-01

This chapter addresses long-range dispersion and the survival of microorganisms across a wide range of altitudes in Earth's atmosphere. Topics include mechanisms of dispersion, survivability of microorganisms known to be associated with long-range transport, natural and artificial sources of bioaerosols, residence time estimation through the use of proxy aerosols, transport and emission models, and monitoring assays (both culture and molecular based). We conclude with a discussion of the known limits for Earth's biosphere boundary, relating aerobiology studies to planetary exploration given the large degree of overlapping requirements for in situ studies (including low biomass life detection and contamination control).

TESTING U.S. EPA'S ISCST -VERSION 3 MODEL ON DIOXINS: A COMPARISON OF PREDICTED AND OBSERVED AIR AND SOIL CONCENTRATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The central purpose of our study was to examine the performance of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonreactive Gaussian air quality dispersion model, the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Model (ISCST3) Version 98226, in predicting polychlorinated dib...

An Evaluation of carbon monoxide emissions models and mobile source dispersion models applicable to Alaskan cities : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

This report describes an investigation of state-of-the-art models for predicting the impact on air quality of additions or changes to a highway system identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as a "non-attainment area" for air quality s...

Dispersal-Based Microbial Community Assembly Decreases Biogeochemical Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Emily B.; Stegen, James C.

Ecological mechanisms influence relationships among microbial communities, which in turn impact biogeochemistry. In particular, microbial communities are assembled by deterministic (e.g., selection) and stochastic (e.g., dispersal) processes, and the relative balance of these two process types is hypothesized to alter the influence of microbial communities over biogeochemical function. We used an ecological simulation model to evaluate this hypothesis, defining biogeochemical function generically to represent any biogeochemical reaction of interest. We assembled receiving communities under different levels of dispersal from a source community that was assembled purely by selection. The dispersal scenarios ranged from no dispersal (i.e., selection-only) to dispersal ratesmore » high enough to overwhelm selection (i.e., homogenizing dispersal). We used an aggregate measure of community fitness to infer a given community’s biogeochemical function relative to other communities. We also used ecological null models to further link the relative influence of deterministic assembly to function. We found that increasing rates of dispersal decrease biogeochemical function by increasing the proportion of maladapted taxa in a local community. Niche breadth was also a key determinant of biogeochemical function, suggesting a tradeoff between the function of generalist and specialist species. Finally, we show that microbial assembly processes exert greater influence over biogeochemical function when there is variation in the relative contributions of dispersal and selection among communities. Taken together, our results highlight the influence of spatial processes on biogeochemical function and indicate the need to account for such effects in models that aim to predict biogeochemical function under future environmental scenarios.« less

Dispersal-Based Microbial Community Assembly Decreases Biogeochemical Function

DOE PAGES

Graham, Emily B.; Stegen, James C.

2017-11-01

Ecological mechanisms influence relationships among microbial communities, which in turn impact biogeochemistry. In particular, microbial communities are assembled by deterministic (e.g., selection) and stochastic (e.g., dispersal) processes, and the relative balance of these two process types is hypothesized to alter the influence of microbial communities over biogeochemical function. We used an ecological simulation model to evaluate this hypothesis, defining biogeochemical function generically to represent any biogeochemical reaction of interest. We assembled receiving communities under different levels of dispersal from a source community that was assembled purely by selection. The dispersal scenarios ranged from no dispersal (i.e., selection-only) to dispersal ratesmore » high enough to overwhelm selection (i.e., homogenizing dispersal). We used an aggregate measure of community fitness to infer a given community’s biogeochemical function relative to other communities. We also used ecological null models to further link the relative influence of deterministic assembly to function. We found that increasing rates of dispersal decrease biogeochemical function by increasing the proportion of maladapted taxa in a local community. Niche breadth was also a key determinant of biogeochemical function, suggesting a tradeoff between the function of generalist and specialist species. Finally, we show that microbial assembly processes exert greater influence over biogeochemical function when there is variation in the relative contributions of dispersal and selection among communities. Taken together, our results highlight the influence of spatial processes on biogeochemical function and indicate the need to account for such effects in models that aim to predict biogeochemical function under future environmental scenarios.« less

Evaluation of an urban vegetative canopy scheme and impact on plume dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Matthew A; Williams, Michael D; Zajic, Dragan

2009-01-01

The Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) atmospheric dispersion modeling system attempts to fill an important gap between the fast, but nonbuilding-aware Gaussian plume models and the building-aware but slow computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. While Gaussian models have the ability to give answers quickly to emergency responders, they are unlikely to be able to adequately account for the effects of the building-induced complex flow patterns on the near-source dispersion of contaminants. QUIC uses a diagnostic massconsistent empirical wind model called QUIC-URB that is based on the methodology of Rockle (1990), (see also Kaplan and Dinar 1996). In this approach,more » the recirculation zones that form around and between buildings are inserted into the flow using empirical parameterizations and then the wind field is forced to be mass consistent. Although not as accurate as CFD codes, this approach is several orders of magnitude faster and accounts for the bulk effects of buildings.« less

40 CFR 93.152 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the effects of emissions on air quality, for example, an assessment using EPA's community multi-scale... Source Complex Model or Emission and Dispersion Model System) to determine the effects of emissions on... that it is not a significant precursor, and (iii) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH3...

40 CFR 93.152 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... the effects of emissions on air quality, for example, an assessment using EPA's community multi-scale... Source Complex Model or Emission and Dispersion Model System) to determine the effects of emissions on... that it is not a significant precursor, and (iii) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH3...

40 CFR 93.152 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the effects of emissions on air quality, for example, an assessment using EPA's community multi-scale... Source Complex Model or Emission and Dispersion Model System) to determine the effects of emissions on... that it is not a significant precursor, and (iii) Volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH3...

Microlensing of an extended source by a power-law mass distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Arthur B.; Keeton, Charles R.; Osmer, S. J.

2007-03-01

Microlensing promises to be a powerful tool for studying distant galaxies and quasars. As the data and models improve, there are systematic effects that need to be explored. Quasar continuum and broad-line regions may respond differently to microlensing due to their different sizes; to understand this effect, we study microlensing of finite sources by a mass function of stars. We find that microlensing is insensitive to the slope of the mass function but does depend on the mass range. For negative-parity images, diluting the stellar population with dark matter increases the magnification dispersion for small sources and decreases it for large sources. This implies that the quasar continuum and broad-line regions may experience very different microlensing in negative-parity lensed images. We confirm earlier conclusions that the surface brightness profile and geometry of the source have little effect on microlensing. Finally, we consider non-circular sources. We show that elliptical sources that are aligned with the direction of shear have larger magnification dispersions than sources with perpendicular alignment, an effect that becomes more prominent as the ellipticity increases. Elongated sources can lead to more rapid variability than circular sources, which raises the prospect of using microlensing to probe source shape.

Source, dispersion and combustion modelling of an accidental release of hydrogen in an urban environment.

PubMed

Venetsanos, A G; Huld, T; Adams, P; Bartzis, J G

2003-12-12

Hydrogen is likely to be the most important future energy carrier, for many stationary and mobile applications, with the potential to make significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions especially if renewable primary energy sources are used to produce the hydrogen. A safe transition to the use of hydrogen by members of the general public requires that the safety issues associated with hydrogen applications have to be investigated and fully understood. In order to assess the risks associated with hydrogen applications, its behaviour in realistic accident scenarios has to be predicted, allowing mitigating measures to be developed where necessary. A key factor in this process is predicting the release, dispersion and combustion of hydrogen in appropriate scenarios. This paper illustrates an application of CFD methods to the simulation of an actual hydrogen explosion. The explosion occurred on 3 March 1983 in a built up area of central Stockholm, Sweden, after the accidental release of approximately 13.5 kg of hydrogen from a rack of 18 interconnected 50 l industrial pressure vessels (200 bar working pressure) being transported by a delivery truck. Modelling of the source term, dispersion and combustion were undertaken separately using three different numerical tools, due to the differences in physics and scales between the different phenomena. Results from the dispersion calculations together with the official accident report were used to identify a possible ignition source and estimate the time at which ignition could have occurred. Ignition was estimated to occur 10s after the start of the release, coinciding with the time at which the maximum flammable hydrogen mass and cloud volume were found to occur (4.5 kg and 600 m(3), respectively). The subsequent simulation of the combustion adopts initial conditions for mean flow and turbulence from the dispersion simulations, and calculates the development of a fireball. This provides physical values, e.g. maximum overpressure and far-field overpressure that may be used as a comparison with the known accident details to give an indication of the validity of the models. The simulation results are consistent with both the reported near-field damage to buildings and persons and with the far-field damage to windows. The work was undertaken as part of the European Integrated Hydrogen Project-Phase 2 (EIHP2) with partial funding from the European Commission via the Fifth Framework Programme.

A new modeling approach for assessing the contribution of industrial and traffic emissions to ambient NOx concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shimon; Yuval; Broday, David M.

2018-01-01

The Optimized Dispersion Model (ODM) is uniquely capable of incorporating emission estimates, ambient air quality monitoring data and meteorology to provide reliable high-resolution (in both time and space) air quality estimates using non-linear regression. However, it was so far not capable of describing the effects of emissions from elevated sources. We formulated an additional term to extend the ODM such that these sources can be accounted for, and implemented it in modeling the fine spatiotemporal patterns of ambient NOx concentrations over the coastal plain of Israel. The diurnal and seasonal variation in the contribution of industry to the ambient NOx is presented, as well as its spatial features. Although industrial stacks are responsible for 88% of the NOx emissions in the study area, their contribution to ambient NOx levels is generally about 2% with a maximal upper bound of 27%. Meteorology has a major role in this source allocation, with the highest impact of industry in the summer months, when the wind is blowing inland past the coastal stacks and vertical mixing is substantial. The new Optimized Dispersion Model (ODM) out-performs both Inverse-Distance-Weighing (IDW) interpolation and a previous ODM version in predicting ambient NOx concentrations. The performance of the new model is thoroughly assessed.

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Thematic and Spatial Resolutions Affect Model-Based Predictions of Tree Species Distribution

PubMed Central

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution. PMID:23861828

Multimodal approach to seismic pavement testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryden, N.; Park, C.B.; Ulriksen, P.; Miller, R.D.

2004-01-01

A multimodal approach to nondestructive seismic pavement testing is described. The presented approach is based on multichannel analysis of all types of seismic waves propagating along the surface of the pavement. The multichannel data acquisition method is replaced by multichannel simulation with one receiver. This method uses only one accelerometer-receiver and a light hammer-source, to generate a synthetic receiver array. This data acquisition technique is made possible through careful triggering of the source and results in such simplification of the technique that it is made generally available. Multiple dispersion curves are automatically and objectively extracted using the multichannel analysis of surface waves processing scheme, which is described. Resulting dispersion curves in the high frequency range match with theoretical Lamb waves in a free plate. At lower frequencies there are several branches of dispersion curves corresponding to the lower layers of different stiffness in the pavement system. The observed behavior of multimodal dispersion curves is in agreement with theory, which has been validated through both numerical modeling and the transfer matrix method, by solving for complex wave numbers. ?? ASCE / JUNE 2004.

ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CHALLENGES WITH COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper discusses the status and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics )CFD) models to address environmental engineering challenges for more detailed understanding of air pollutant source emissions, atmospheric dispersion and resulting human exposure. CFD simulations ...

A Near-Road Modeling System for Community-Scale Assessments of Traffic-Related AirPollution in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Line Source (C-LINE) modeling system estimates emissions and dispersion of toxic air pollutants for roadways within the continental United States. It accesses publicly available traffic and meteorological datasets, and is optimized for use on community-sized areas (...

Scalar Dispersion from Point Sources in a Realistic Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salesky, S.; Giometto, M. G.; Christen, A.; Parlange, M. B.

2016-12-01

Accurate modeling of scalar dispersion within and above urban canopies is critical to properly predict air quality and dispersion (e.g. accidental contaminant release) in urban environments. We perform large eddy simulations (LES) of scalar dispersion from point sources in a typical North American neighborhood using topography and foliage density derived from airborne LIDAR scans with 1 m resolution in Vancouver, BC, Canada. The added drag force due to trees is parameterized in the LES as a function of the leaf area density (LAD) profile. Conversely, drag from buildings is accounted for using a direct forcing approach immersed-boundary method. The scalar advection-diffusion equation is discretized in a finite-volume framework, and accurate mass conservation is enforced through a recently developed Cartesian cut cell method. Simulations are performed with trees for different values of LAD, representative of summer and winter conditions, as well as a case without trees. The effects of varying mean wind direction (derived from observed wind climatologies) on dispersion patterns are also considered. Scalar release locations in the LES are informed by spatially distributed measurements of carbon dioxide concentration; CO2 is used as a tracer for fossil fuel emissions, since source strengths are well-known and the contribution from biological processes in this setting is small (<10%). The effects of leaf area density, source height, and wind direction on scalar statistics including the growth of the mean concentration plume and the fraction that escapes the urban canopy layer will be considered. In a companion study, the presence of trees was found to strongly modify sweep and ejection patterns for the momentum flux; here we consider the related issue of how vegetation influences coherent structures responsible for scalar transport.

Detailed source term estimation of the atmospheric release for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident by coupling simulations of atmospheric dispersion model with improved deposition scheme and oceanic dispersion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, G.; Chino, M.; Kobayashi, T.; Terada, H.; Ota, M.; Nagai, H.; Kajino, M.; Draxler, R.; Hort, M. C.; Malo, A.; Torii, T.; Sanada, Y.

2014-06-01

Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FNPS1) accident and their atmospheric and marine dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. In this paper, we estimate a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data with atmospheric model simulations from WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), and simulations from the oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM, both developed by the authors. A sophisticated deposition scheme, which deals with dry and fogwater depositions, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation and subsequent wet scavenging due to mixed-phase cloud microphysics (in-cloud scavenging) for radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (CsI, Cs, and Te), was incorporated into WSPEEDI-II to improve the surface deposition calculations. The fallout to the ocean surface calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data for the SEA-GEARN-FDM calculations. Reverse and inverse source-term estimation methods based on coupling the simulations from both models was adopted using air dose rates and concentrations, and sea surface concentrations. The results revealed that the major releases of radionuclides due to FNPS1 accident occurred in the following periods during March 2011: the afternoon of 12 March due to the wet venting and hydrogen explosion at Unit 1, the morning of 13 March after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight of 14 March when the SRV (Safely Relief Valve) at Unit 2 was opened three times, the morning and night of 15 March, and the morning of 16 March. According to the simulation results, the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPS1 were created from 15 to 16 March by complicated interactions among rainfall, plume movements, and the temporal variation of release rates associated with reactor pressure changes in Units 2 and 3. The modified WSPEEDI-II simulation using the new source term reproduced local and regional patterns of cumulative surface deposition of total 131I and 137Cs and air dose rate obtained by airborne surveys. The new source term was also tested using three atmospheric dispersion models (MLDP0, HYSPLIT, and NAME) for regional and global calculations and showed good agreement between calculated and observed air concentration and surface deposition of 137Cs in East Japan. Moreover, HYSPLIT model using the new source term also reproduced the plume arrivals at several countries abroad showing a good correlation with measured air concentration data. A large part of deposition pattern of total 131I and 137Cs in East Japan was explained by in-cloud particulate scavenging. However, for the regional scale contaminated areas, there were large uncertainties due to the overestimation of rainfall amounts and the underestimation of fogwater and drizzle depositions. The computations showed that approximately 27% of 137Cs discharged from FNPS1 deposited to the land in East Japan, mostly in forest areas.

Natural age dispersion arising from the analysis of broken crystals. Part I: Theoretical basis and implications for the apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Roderick W.; Beucher, Romain; Roper, Steven; Persano, Cristina; Stuart, Fin; Fitzgerald, Paul

2013-12-01

Over the last decade major progress has been made in developing both the theoretical and practical aspects of apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometry and it is now standard practice, and generally seen as best practice, to analyse single grain aliquots. These individual prismatic crystals are often broken and are fragments of larger crystals that have broken during mineral separation along the weak basal cleavage in apatite. This is clearly indicated by the common occurrence of only 1 or no clear crystal terminations present on separated apatite grains, and evidence of freshly broken ends when grains are viewed using a scanning electron microscope. This matters because if the 4He distribution within the whole grain is not homogeneous, because of partial loss due to thermal diffusion for example, then the fragments will all yield ages different from each other and from the whole grain age. Here we use a numerical model with a finite cylinder geometry to approximate 4He ingrowth and thermal diffusion within hexagonal prismatic apatite crystals. This is used to quantify the amount and patterns of inherent, natural age dispersion that arises from analysing broken crystals. A series of systematic numerical experiments were conducted to explore and quantify the pattern and behaviour of this source of dispersion using a set of 5 simple thermal histories that represent a range of plausible geological scenarios. In addition some more complex numerical experiments were run to investigate the pattern and behaviour of grain dispersion seen in several real data sets. The results indicate that natural dispersion of a set of single fragment ages (defined as the range divided by the mean) arising from fragmentation alone varies from c. 7% even for rapid (c. 10 °C/Ma), monotonic cooling to over 50% for protracted, complex histories that cause significant diffusional loss of 4He. The magnitude of dispersion arising from fragmentation scales with the grain cylindrical radius, and is of a similar magnitude to dispersion expected from differences in absolute grain size alone (spherical equivalent radii of 40-150 μm). This source of dispersion is significant compared with typical analytical uncertainties on individual grain analyses (c. 6%) and standard deviations on multiple grain analyses from a single sample (c. 10-20%). Where there is a significant difference in the U and Th concentration of individual grains (eU), the effect of radiation damage accumulation on 4He diffusivity (assessed using the RDAAM model of Flowers et al. (2009)) is the primary cause of dispersion for samples that have experienced a protracted thermal history, and can cause dispersion in excess of 100% for realistic ranges of eU concentration (i.e. 5-100 ppm). Expected natural dispersion arising from the combined effects of reasonable variations in grain size (radii 40-125 μm), eU concentration (5-150 ppm) and fragmentation would typically exceed 100% for complex thermal histories. In addition to adding a significant component of natural dispersion to analyses, the effect of fragmentation also acts to decouple and corrupt expected correlations between grain ages and absolute grain size and to a lesser extent between grain age and effective uranium concentration (eU). Considering fragmentation explicitly as a source of dispersion and analysing how the different sources of natural dispersion all interact with each other provides a quantitative framework for understanding patterns of dispersion that otherwise appear chaotic. An important outcome of these numerical experiments is that they demonstrate that the pattern of age dispersion arising from fragmentation mimics the pattern of 4He distribution within the whole grains, thus providing an important source of information about the thermal history of the sample. We suggest that if the primary focus of a study is to extract the thermal history information from (U-Th)/He analyses then sampling and analytical strategies should aim to maximise the natural dispersion of grain ages, not minimise it, and should aim to analyse circa 20-30 grains from each sample. The key observations and conclusions drawn here are directly applicable to other thermochronometers, such as the apatite, rutile and titanite U-Pb systems, where the diffusion domain is approximated by the physical grain size.

Dispersal kernels and their drivers captured with a hydrodynamic model and spatial indices: A case study on anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus) early life stages in the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huret, M.; Petitgas, P.; Woillez, M.

2010-10-01

Dispersal of fish early life stages explains part of the recruitment success, through interannual variability in spawning, transport and survival. Dispersal results from a complex interaction between physical and biological processes acting at different temporal and spatial scales, and at the individual or population level. In this paper we quantify the response of anchovy egg and larval dispersal in the Bay of Biscay to the following sources of variability: vertical larval behaviour, drift duration, adult spawning location and timing, and spatio-temporal variability in the hydrodynamics. We use simulations of Lagrangian trajectories in a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model, as well as spatial indices describing different properties of the dispersal kernel: the mean transport (distance, direction), its variance, occupation of space by particles and their aggregation. We show that larval drift duration has a major impact on the dispersion at scales of ˜100 km, but that vertical behaviour becomes dominant reducing dispersion at scales of ˜1-10 km. Spawning location plays a major role in explaining connectivity patterns, in conjunction with spawning temporal variability. Interannual variability in the circulation dominates over seasonal variability. However, seasonal patterns become predominant for coastal spawning locations, revealing a recurrent shift in the direction of dispersal during the anchovy spawning season.

Groundwater Source Identification Using Backward Fractional-Derivative Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Sun, H.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

The forward Fractional Advection Dispersion Equation (FADE) provides a useful model for non-Fickian transport in heterogeneous porous media. This presentation introduces the corresponding backward FADE model, to identify groundwater source location and release time. The backward method is developed from the theory of inverse problems, and the resultant backward FADE differs significantly from the traditional backward ADE because the fractional derivative is not self-adjoint and the probability density function for backward locations is highly skewed. Finally, the method is validated using tracer data from well-known field experiments.

A method for simulating the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain.

PubMed

Deng, Yajun; Hu, Hongbing; Yu, Bo; Sun, Dongliang; Hou, Lei; Liang, Yongtu

2018-01-15

The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can pose a serious threat to human life and environment. In this research, a method has been proposed to simulate the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain. The process of gas releases from the rupture of a high-pressure pipeline is divided into three stages, namely the discharge, jet, and dispersion stages. Firstly, a discharge model is established to calculate the release rate of the orifice. Secondly, an improved jet model is proposed to obtain the parameters of the pseudo source. Thirdly, a fast-modeling method applicable to any terrain is introduced. Finally, based upon these three steps, a dispersion model, which can take any terrain into account, is established. Then, the dispersion scenarios of released gas in four different terrains are studied. Moreover, the effects of pipeline pressure, pipeline diameter, wind speed and concentration of hydrogen sulfide on the dispersion scenario in real terrain are systematically analyzed. The results provide significant guidance for risk assessment and contingency planning of a ruptured natural gas pipeline. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development of a Geographic Information System Based Dust Dispersion Modeling System For Use In the Planning and Implementation of Military Training Exercises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crandall, Duard W; Rutz, Frederick C

2004-08-12

Military maneuvers and training exercises are essential for national and world defense. These maneuvers must however be performed in a manner that will have a minimal effect on the environment and local civilians. As residential areas continue to develop near military sites, possible impacts from military traffic and exercises to these areas begin to become of greater concern. Concerns facing the military include the effects of particulate air quality and atmospheric dust dispersion caused by such maneuvers. To aid the Department of Defense with this problem, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory proposed a plan to develop, document and test a modelingmore » system for use in dust dispersion reduction and management near government sites. To accomplish this task a user interface was developed that would be user friendly yet sophisticated enough to accommodate the needs of the client. One such need is to integrate a geographic information system (GIS) with the dust dispersion modeling software. This allows the user to enter the point, area, or line source required for the model runs. Incorporating the GIS with the software will also allow the user to view plume rise and expansion over actual data maps of the desired site. Data collected during previous field studies will be used to verify the results generated by the dust dispersion models. Thus utilizing historical, current, and user defined data, near real-time dust dispersion models will be able to aid in estimating and minimizing the effects of military exercises on the environment and nonmilitary personnel.« less

Statistics of concentrations due to single air pollution sources to be applied in numerical modelling of pollutant dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tumanov, Sergiu

A test of goodness of fit based on rank statistics was applied to prove the applicability of the Eggenberger-Polya discrete probability law to hourly SO 2-concentrations measured in the vicinity of single sources. With this end in view, the pollutant concentration was considered an integral quantity which may be accepted if one properly chooses the unit of measurement (in this case μg m -3) and if account is taken of the limited accuracy of measurements. The results of the test being satisfactory, even in the range of upper quantiles, the Eggenberger-Polya law was used in association with numerical modelling to estimate statistical parameters, e.g. quantiles, cumulative probabilities of threshold concentrations to be exceeded, and so on, in the grid points of a network covering the area of interest. This only needs accurate estimations of means and variances of the concentration series which can readily be obtained through routine air pollution dispersion modelling.

Near Real{time Data Assimilation for the HYSPLIT Aerosol Dispersion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalpakis, K.; Yang, S.; Yesha, Y.

2010-12-01

Konstantinos Kalpakis, Shiming Yang, and Yaacov Yesha Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering University of Maryland Baltimore County 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD, U.S.A. {kalpakis, shiming1, yayeshag}@csee.umbc.edu ABSTRACT We are working on an IBM-funded project seeking to develop a prototype system for real-time plume dispersion and fire and smoke detection and monitoring. Our prototype system utilizes HYSPLIT and observation data from various sources. HYSPLIT is a model developed by NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory for forecasting aerosol trajectories, dispersion, and concentration from emission sources. It is used extensively by NOAA to routinely provide a number of data products. We develop a data assimilation system for assimilating observational data into the forecasting model in order to improve its forecasting accuracy. Our system is based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) algorithm and it is computationally efficient. We evaluate our data assimilation system with real in-situ observational data, and find that our system improves upon HYSPLIT's forecast by reducing the normalized mean squared error and the bias. We are also experimenting with assimilating MODIS data with HYSPLIT model forecasts. To this end, we extrapolate ground concentrations from MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data. Our extrapolation approach relies on spatially localized linear regressions of aerosol concentrations from ground stations in the Air Quality System (AQS) network and MODIS AOD data. We expect that assimilating the extrapolated concentrations leads into further improvements of HYSPLIT forecasts. Furthermore, we are investigating using additional sources of in-situ and remotely sensed observations, such as GOES AOD 30-minute data, and UAV data from the Ikhana AMS fire missions. These sources provide higher spatial resolution and more frequent temporal coverage. Moreover, GOES and UAVs provide near-real time data which should be useful in improving HYSPLIT forecasts of smoke from wildfires. Currently, the Ikhana AMS fire missions team provides L1B data which are very useful in themselves, but no level 2 to the best of our knowledge. For our application, it would very useful to have an AOD data product for these datasets. A possible path for deriving AOD data the AMS sensor onboard UAVs would be to utilize the DRL code for deriving the MODIS AOD from MODIS L1B data, due to the sensor similarities. Developing such code would be very useful for wildfire smoke prediction applications. Our near real-time data assimilation system helps in bridging the gap between predictions and real-time observations, for more accurate and timely aerosol dispersion forecasts. Keywords: data assimilation, HYSPLIT, forecast model performance, real-time, ensemble Kalman filter, aerosol dispersion and concentration.

Assesment of longwave radiation effects on air quality modelling in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soucasse, L.; Buchan, A.; Pain, C.

2016-12-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics is widely used as a predictive tool to evaluate people's exposure to pollutants in urban street canyons. However, in low-wind conditions, flow and pollutant dispersion in the canyons are driven by thermal effects and may be affected by longwave (infrared) radiation due to the absorption and emission of water vapor contained in the air. These effects are mostly ignored in the literature dedicated to air quality modelling at this scale. This study aims at quantifying the uncertainties due to neglecting thermal radiation in air quality models. The Large-Eddy-Simulation of air flow in a single 2D canyon with a heat source on the ground is considered for Rayleigh and Reynolds numbers in the range of [10e8-10e10] and [5.10e3-5.10e4] respectively. The dispersion of a tracer is monitored once the statistically steady regime is reached. Incoming radiation is computed for a mid-latitude summer atmosphere and canyon surfaces are assumed to be black. Water vapour is the only radiating molecule considered and a global model is used to treat the spectral dependancy of its absorption coefficient. Flow and radiation fields are solved in a coupled way using the finite element solvers Fluidity and Fetch which have the capability of adapting their space and angular resolution according to an estimate of the solution error. Results show significant effects of thermal radiation on flow patterns and tracer dispersion. When radiation is taken into account, the air is heated far from the heat source leading to a stronger natural convection flow. The tracer is then dispersed faster out of the canyon potentially decreasing people's exposure to pollution within the street canyon.

Comparing model-based and model-free analysis methods for QUASAR arterial spin labeling perfusion quantification.

PubMed

Chappell, Michael A; Woolrich, Mark W; Petersen, Esben T; Golay, Xavier; Payne, Stephen J

2013-05-01

Amongst the various implementations of arterial spin labeling MRI methods for quantifying cerebral perfusion, the QUASAR method is unique. By using a combination of labeling with and without flow suppression gradients, the QUASAR method offers the separation of macrovascular and tissue signals. This permits local arterial input functions to be defined and "model-free" analysis, using numerical deconvolution, to be used. However, it remains unclear whether arterial spin labeling data are best treated using model-free or model-based analysis. This work provides a critical comparison of these two approaches for QUASAR arterial spin labeling in the healthy brain. An existing two-component (arterial and tissue) model was extended to the mixed flow suppression scheme of QUASAR to provide an optimal model-based analysis. The model-based analysis was extended to incorporate dispersion of the labeled bolus, generally regarded as the major source of discrepancy between the two analysis approaches. Model-free and model-based analyses were compared for perfusion quantification including absolute measurements, uncertainty estimation, and spatial variation in cerebral blood flow estimates. Major sources of discrepancies between model-free and model-based analysis were attributed to the effects of dispersion and the degree to which the two methods can separate macrovascular and tissue signal. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofiev, M.; Siljamo, P.; Ranta, H.; Rantio-Lehtimäki, A.

2006-07-01

This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of ˜103 km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002-2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden—depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.

A hydrodynamics-based approach to evaluating the risk of waterborne pathogens entering drinking water intakes in a large, stratified lake.

PubMed

Hoyer, Andrea B; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Rueda, Francisco J

2015-10-15

Pathogen contamination of drinking water lakes and reservoirs is a severe threat to human health worldwide. A major source of pathogens in surface sources of drinking waters is from body-contact recreation in the water body. However, dispersion pathways of human waterborne pathogens from recreational beaches, where body-contact recreation is known to occur to drinking water intakes, and the associated risk of pathogens entering the drinking water supply remain largely undocumented. A high spatial resolution, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and particle tracking modeling approach has been developed to analyze the risk and mechanisms presented by pathogen dispersion. The pathogen model represents the processes of particle release, transport and survival. Here survival is a function of both water temperature and cumulative exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Pathogen transport is simulated using a novel and computationally efficient technique of tracking particle trajectories backwards, from a drinking water intake toward their source areas. The model has been applied to a large, alpine lake - Lake Tahoe, CA-NV (USA). The dispersion model results reveal that for this particular lake (1) the risk of human waterborne pathogens to enter drinking water intakes is low, but significant; (2) this risk is strongly related to the depth of the thermocline in relation to the depth of the intake; (3) the risk increases with the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer; and (4) the risk increases at night when the surface mixed layer deepens through convective mixing and inactivation by UV radiation is eliminated. While these risk factors will quantitatively vary in different lakes, these same mechanisms will govern the process of transport of pathogens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chai, Tianfeng; Crawford, Alice; Stunder, Barbara; Pavolonis, Michael J.; Draxler, Roland; Stein, Ariel

2017-02-01

Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) runs the HYSPLIT dispersion model with a unit mass release rate to predict the transport and dispersion of volcanic ash. The model predictions provide information for the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to issue advisories to meteorological watch offices, area control centers, flight information centers, and others. This research aims to provide quantitative forecasts of ash distributions generated by objectively and optimally estimating the volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations using an observation-modeling inversion technique. In this top-down approach, a cost functional is defined to quantify the differences between the model predictions and the satellite measurements of column-integrated ash concentrations weighted by the model and observation uncertainties. Minimizing this cost functional by adjusting the sources provides the volcanic ash emission estimates. As an example, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite retrievals of the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds are used to test the HYSPLIT volcanic ash inverse system. Because the satellite retrievals include the ash cloud top height but not the bottom height, there are different model diagnostic choices for comparing the model results with the observed mass loadings. Three options are presented and tested. Although the emission estimates vary significantly with different options, the subsequent model predictions with the different release estimates all show decent skill when evaluated against the unassimilated satellite observations at later times. Among the three options, integrating over three model layers yields slightly better results than integrating from the surface up to the observed volcanic ash cloud top or using a single model layer. Inverse tests also show that including the ash-free region to constrain the model is not beneficial for the current case. In addition, extra constraints on the source terms can be given by explicitly enforcing no-ash for the atmosphere columns above or below the observed ash cloud top height. However, in this case such extra constraints are not helpful for the inverse modeling. It is also found that simultaneously assimilating observations at different times produces better hindcasts than only assimilating the most recent observations.

Solute transport along a single fracture in a porous rock: a simple analytical solution and its extension for modeling velocity dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Longcheng; Neretnieks, Ivars; Shahkarami, Pirouz; Meng, Shuo; Moreno, Luis

2018-02-01

A simple and robust solution is developed for the problem of solute transport along a single fracture in a porous rock. The solution is referred to as the solution to the single-flow-path model and takes the form of a convolution of two functions. The first function is the probability density function of residence-time distribution of a conservative solute in the fracture-only system as if the rock matrix is impermeable. The second function is the response of the fracture-matrix system to the input source when Fickian-type dispersion is completely neglected; thus, the effects of Fickian-type dispersion and matrix diffusion have been decoupled. It is also found that the solution can be understood in a way in line with the concept of velocity dispersion in fractured rocks. The solution is therefore extended into more general cases to also account for velocity variation between the channels. This leads to a development of the multi-channel model followed by detailed statistical descriptions of channel properties and sensitivity analysis of the model upon changes in the model key parameters. The simulation results obtained by the multi-channel model in this study fairly well agree with what is often observed in field experiments—i.e. the unchanged Peclet number with distance, which cannot be predicted by the classical advection-dispersion equation. In light of the findings from the aforementioned analysis, it is suggested that forced-gradient experiments can result in considerably different estimates of dispersivity compared to what can be found in natural-gradient systems for typical channel widths.

Development of a composite line source emission model for traffic interrupted microenvironments and its application in particle number emissions at a bus station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lina; Jayaratne, Rohan; Heuff, Darlene; Morawska, Lidia

A composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. Hence, this model was able to quickly quantify the time spent in each segment within the considered zone, as well as the composition and position of the requisite segments based on the vehicle fleet information, which not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bi-directional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. Although the CLSE model is intended to be applied in traffic management and transport analysis systems for the evaluation of exposure, as well as the simulation of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments, the bus station model can also be used for the input of initial source definitions in future dispersion models.

Program listing for the REEDM (Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model) computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorklund, J. R.; Dumbauld, R. K.; Cheney, C. S.; Geary, H. V.

1982-01-01

The program listing for the REEDM Computer Program is provided. A mathematical description of the atmospheric dispersion models, cloud-rise models, and other formulas used in the REEDM model; vehicle and source parameters, other pertinent physical properties of the rocket exhaust cloud and meteorological layering techniques; user's instructions for the REEDM computer program; and worked example problems are contained in NASA CR-3646.

Strategic management of five deciduous forest invaders using Microstegium vimineum as a model species

Treesearch

Cynthia D. Huebner

2007-01-01

This paper links key plant invasive traits with key landscape traits to define strategic management for five common forest invaders, using empirical data of Microstegium vimineum dispersal into forests as a preliminary model. Microstegium vimineum exhibits an Allee effect that may allow management to focus on treating its source...

Near-source air quality in rail yard environments – an overview of recent EPA measurement and modeling findings

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will providing a summary of field measurements conducted in areas surrounding two major rail yards as well as modeling simulations of rail yard emissions dispersion. The Cicero Rail Yard Study (CIRYS) was recently released to the public and includes mobile and ...

Movement behavior explains genetic differentiation in American black bears

Treesearch

Samuel A Cushman; Jesse S. Lewis

2010-01-01

Individual-based landscape genetic analyses provide empirically based models of gene flow. It would be valuable to verify the predictions of these models using independent data of a different type. Analyses using different data sources that produce consistent results provide strong support for the generality of the findings. Mating and dispersal movements are the...

What is the local air quality impact related to major transit sources and can barriers reduce exposure?

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation will describe measurement and modeling activities to study the dispersion of air pollution from transit emissions (highway, rail, port) and evaluation of barriers as a mitigation method.

Modeled ground water age distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

2009-01-01

The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

Early detection of emerging forest disease using dispersal estimation and ecological niche modeling.

PubMed

Meentemeyer, Ross K; Anacker, Brian L; Mark, Walter; Rizzo, David M

2008-03-01

Distinguishing the manner in which dispersal limitation and niche requirements control the spread of invasive pathogens is important for prediction and early detection of disease outbreaks. Here, we use niche modeling augmented by dispersal estimation to examine the degree to which local habitat conditions vs. force of infection predict invasion of Phytophthora ramorum, the causal agent of the emerging infectious tree disease sudden oak death. We sampled 890 field plots for the presence of P. ramorum over a three-year period (2003-2005) across a range of host and abiotic conditions with variable proximities to known infections in California, USA. We developed and validated generalized linear models of invasion probability to analyze the relative predictive power of 12 niche variables and a negative exponential dispersal kernel estimated by likelihood profiling. Models were developed incrementally each year (2003, 2003-2004, 2003-2005) to examine annual variability in model parameters and to create realistic scenarios for using models to predict future infections and to guide early-detection sampling. Overall, 78 new infections were observed up to 33.5 km from the nearest known site of infection, with slightly increasing rates of prevalence across time windows (2003, 6.5%; 2003-2004, 7.1%; 2003-2005, 9.6%). The pathogen was not detected in many field plots that contained susceptible host vegetation. The generalized linear modeling indicated that the probability of invasion is limited by both dispersal and niche constraints. Probability of invasion was positively related to precipitation and temperature in the wet season and the presence of the inoculum-producing foliar host Umbellularia californica and decreased exponentially with distance to inoculum sources. Models that incorporated niche and dispersal parameters best predicted the locations of new infections, with accuracies ranging from 0.86 to 0.90, suggesting that the modeling approach can be used to forecast locations of disease spread. Application of the combined niche plus dispersal models in a geographic information system predicted the presence of P. ramorum across approximately 8228 km2 of California's 84785 km2 (9.7%) of land area with susceptible host species. This research illustrates how probabilistic modeling can be used to analyze the relative roles of niche and dispersal limitation in controlling the distribution of invasive pathogens.

Gyrotactic swimmer dispersion in pipe flow: testing the theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croze, Ottavio A.; Bearon, Rachel N.; Bees, Martin A.

2017-04-01

Suspensions of microswimmers are a rich source of fascinating new fluid mechanics. Recently we predicted the active pipe flow dispersion of gyrotactic microalgae, whose orientation is biased by gravity and flow shear. Analytical theory predicts that these active swimmers disperse in a markedly distinct manner from passive tracers (Taylor dispersion). Dispersing swimmers display nonzero drift and effective diffusivity that is non-monotonic with P$\\'e$clet number. Such predictions agree with numerical simulations, but hitherto have not been tested experimentally. Here, to facilitate comparison, we obtain new solutions of the axial dispersion theory accounting both for swimmer negative buoyancy and a local nonlinear response of swimmers to shear, provided by two alternative microscopic stochastic descriptions. We obtain new predictions for suspensions of the model swimming alga $\\it Dunaliella\\,salina$, whose motility and buoyant mass we parametrise using tracking video microscopy. We then present a new experimental method to measure gyrotactic dispersion using fluorescently stained $\\it D. salina$ and provide a preliminary comparison with predictions of a nonzero drift above the mean flow for each microscopic stochastic description. Finally, we propose further experiments for a full experimental characterisation of gyrotactic dispersion measures and discuss implications of our results for algal dispersion in industrial photobioreactors.

Source apportionment of speciated PM10 in the United Kingdom in 2008: Episodes and annual averages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redington, A. L.; Witham, C. S.; Hort, M. C.

2016-11-01

The Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), has been used to simulate the formation and transport of PM10 over North-West Europe in 2008. The model has been evaluated against UK measurement data and been shown to adequately represent the observed PM10 at rural and urban sites on a daily basis. The Lagrangian nature of the model allows information on the origin of pollutants (and hence their secondary products) to be retained to allow attribution of pollutants at receptor sites back to their sources. This source apportionment technique has been employed to determine whether the different components of the modelled PM10 have originated from UK, shipping, European (excluding the UK) or background sources. For the first time this has been done to evaluate the composition during periods of elevated PM10 as well as the annual average composition. The episode data were determined by selecting the model data for each hour when the corresponding measurement data was >50 μg/m3. All the modelled sites show an increase in European pollution contribution and a decrease in the background contribution in the episode case compared to the annual average. The European contribution is greatest in southern and eastern parts of the UK and decreases moving northwards and westwards. Analysis of the speciated attribution data over the selected sites reveals that for 2008, as an annual average, the top three contributors to total PM10 are UK primary PM10 (17-25%), UK origin nitrate aerosol (18-21%) and background PM10 (11-16%). Under episode conditions the top three contributors to modelled PM10 are UK origin nitrate aerosol (12-33%), European origin nitrate aerosol (11-19%) and UK primary PM10 (12-18%).

Morphogen transport

PubMed Central

Müller, Patrick; Rogers, Katherine W.; Yu, Shuizi R.; Brand, Michael; Schier, Alexander F.

2013-01-01

The graded distribution of morphogens underlies many of the tissue patterns that form during development. How morphogens disperse from a localized source and how gradients in the target tissue form has been under debate for decades. Recent imaging studies and biophysical measurements have provided evidence for various morphogen transport models ranging from passive mechanisms, such as free or hindered extracellular diffusion, to cell-based dispersal by transcytosis or cytonemes. Here, we analyze these transport models using the morphogens Nodal, fibroblast growth factor and Decapentaplegic as case studies. We propose that most of the available data support the idea that morphogen gradients form by diffusion that is hindered by tortuosity and binding to extracellular molecules. PMID:23533171

Application of inverse dispersion model for estimating volatile organic compounds emitted from the offshore industrial park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, M.; Lee, C.; Yu, H.

2013-12-01

In the last 20 years, the Yunlin offshore industrial park has significantly contributed to the economic development of Taiwan. Its annual production value has reached almost 12 % of Taiwan's GDP in 2012. The offshore industrial park also balanced development of urban and rural in areas. However, the offshore industrial park is considered the major source of air pollution to nearby counties, especially, the emission of Volatile Organic Compounds(VOCs). Studies have found that exposures to high level of some VOCs have caused adverse health effects on both human and ecosystem. Since both health and ecological effects of air pollution have been the subject of numerous studies in recent years, it is a critical issue in estimating VOCs emissions. Nowadays emission estimation techniques are usually used emissions factors in calculation. Because the methodology considered totality of equipment activities based on statistical assumptions, it would encounter great uncertainty between these coefficients. This study attempts to estimate VOCs emission of the Yunlin Offshore Industrial Park using an inverse atmospheric dispersion model. The inverse modeling approach will be applied to the combination of dispersion modeling result which input a given one-unit concentration and observations at air quality stations in Yunlin. The American Meteorological Society-Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) is chosen as the tool for dispersion modeling in the study. Observed concentrations of VOCs are collected by the Taiwanese Environmental Protection Administration (TW EPA). In addition, the study also analyzes meteorological data including wind speed, wind direction, pressure and temperature etc. VOCs emission estimations from the inverse atmospheric dispersion model will be compared to the official statistics released by Yunlin Offshore Industrial Park. Comparison of estimated concentration from inverse dispersion modeling and official statistical concentrations will give a better understanding about the uncertainty of regulatory methodology. The model results will be discussed with the importance of evaluating air pollution exposure in risk assessment.

Turbulent Dispersion of Pathogenic Spores Within and Above Plant Canopies: Field Experiments and Lagrangian Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleicher, S.; Chamecki, M.; Isard, S.; Katul, G. G.

2012-12-01

Plant disease epidemics caused by pathogenic spores are a common and consequential threat to agricultural crops. In most cases, pathogenic spores are produced and released deep inside plant canopies and must be transported out of the canopy region in order to infect other fields and spread the disease. The fraction of spores that "escape" the canopy is crucial in determining how fast and far these plant diseases will spread. The goal of this work is to use a field experiment, coupled with a Lagrangian Stochastic Model (LSM), to investigate how properties of canopy turbulence impact the dispersion of spores inside the canopy and the fraction of spores that escape from the canopy. An extensive field experiment was conducted to study spore dispersion inside and outside a corn canopy. The spores were released from point sources located at various depths inside the canopy. Concentration measurements were obtained inside and above the canopy by a 3-dimensional grid of spore collectors. The experimental measurements of mean spore concentration are used to validate a LSM for spore dispersion. In the LSM, flow field statistics used to drive the particle dispersion are specified by a second-order closure model for turbulence within plant canopies. The dispersion model includes spore deposition on and rebound from canopy elements. The combination of experimental and numerical simulations is used to quantify the fraction of spores that escape the canopy. Effects of release height, friction velocity, and canopy architecture on the escape fraction of spores are explored using the LSM, and implications for disease propagation are discussed.

Development of Additional Hazard Assessment Models

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

globules, their trajectory (the distance from the spill point to the impact point on the river bed), and the time required for sinking. Established theories ...chemicals, the dissolution rate is estimated by using eddy diffusivity surface renewal theories . The validity of predictions of these theories has been... theories and experimental data on aeration of rivers. * Describe dispersion in rivers with stationary area source and sources moving with the stream

El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.

2016-08-01

More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997-1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide.

El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier

PubMed Central

Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.

2016-01-01

More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997–1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide. PMID:27550393

Weighted interior penalty discretization of fully nonlinear and weakly dispersive free surface shallow water flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Pietro, Daniele A.; Marche, Fabien

2018-02-01

In this paper, we further investigate the use of a fully discontinuous Finite Element discrete formulation for the study of shallow water free surface flows in the fully nonlinear and weakly dispersive flow regime. We consider a decoupling strategy in which we approximate the solutions of the classical shallow water equations supplemented with a source term globally accounting for the non-hydrostatic effects. This source term can be computed through the resolution of elliptic second-order linear sub-problems, which only involve second order partial derivatives in space. We then introduce an associated Symmetric Weighted Internal Penalty discrete bilinear form, allowing to deal with the discontinuous nature of the elliptic problem's coefficients in a stable and consistent way. Similar discrete formulations are also introduced for several recent optimized fully nonlinear and weakly dispersive models. These formulations are validated again several benchmarks involving h-convergence, p-convergence and comparisons with experimental data, showing optimal convergence properties.

Turbulent mass inhomogeneities induced by a point-source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thalabard, Simon

2018-03-01

We describe how turbulence distributes tracers away from a localized source of injection, and analyze how the spatial inhomogeneities of the concentration field depend on the amount of randomness in the injection mechanism. For that purpose, we contrast the mass correlations induced by purely random injections with those induced by continuous injections in the environment. Using the Kraichnan model of turbulent advection, whereby the underlying velocity field is assumed to be shortly correlated in time, we explicitly identify scaling regions for the statistics of the mass contained within a shell of radius r and located at a distance ρ away from the source. The two key parameters are found to be (i) the ratio s 2 between the absolute and the relative timescales of dispersion and (ii) the ratio Λ between the size of the cloud and its distance away from the source. When the injection is random, only the former is relevant, as previously shown by Celani et al (2007 J. Fluid Mech. 583 189–98) in the case of an incompressible fluid. It is argued that the space partition in terms of s 2 and Λ is a robust feature of the injection mechanism itself, which should remain relevant beyond the Kraichnan model. This is for instance the case in a generalized version of the model, where the absolute dispersion is prescribed to be ballistic rather than diffusive.

CFD Modeling of LNG Spill: Humidity Effect on Vapor Dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannissi, S. G.; Venetsanos, A. G.; Markatos, N.

2015-09-01

The risks entailed by an accidental spill of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) should be indentified and evaluated, in order to design measures for prevention and mitigation in LNG terminals. For this purpose, simulations are considered a useful tool to study LNG spills and to understand the mechanisms that influence the vapor dispersion. In the present study, the ADREA-HF CFD code is employed to simulate the TEEX1 experiment. The experiment was carried out at the Brayton Fire Training Field, which is affiliated with the Texas A&M University system and involves LNG release and dispersion over water surface in open- obstructed environment. In the simulation the source was modeled as a two-phase jet enabling the prediction of both the vapor dispersion and the liquid pool spreading. The conservation equations for the mixture are solved along with the mass fraction for natural gas. Due to the low prevailing temperatures during the spill ambient humidity condenses and this might affect the vapor dispersion. This effect was examined in this work by solving an additional conservation equation for the water mass fraction. Two different models were tested: the hydrodynamic equilibrium model which assumes kinetic equilibrium between the phases and the non hydrodynamic equilibrium model, in order to assess the effect of slip velocity on the prediction. The slip velocity is defined as the difference between the liquid phase and the vapor phase and is calculated using the algebraic slip model. Constant droplet diameter of three different sizes and a lognormal distribution of the droplet diameter were applied and the results are discussed and compared with the measurements.

Complex dispersion relation of surface acoustic waves at a lossy metasurface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwan, Logan; Geslain, Alan; Romero-García, Vicente; Groby, Jean-Philippe

2017-01-01

The complex dispersion relation of surface acoustic waves (SAWs) at a lossy resonant metasurface is theoretically and experimentally reported. The metasurface consists of the periodic arrangement of borehole resonators in a rigid substrate. The theoretical model relies on a boundary layer approach that provides the effective metasurface admittance governing the complex dispersion relation in the presence of viscous and thermal losses. The model is experimentally validated by measurements in the semi-anechoic chamber. The complex SAW dispersion relation is experimentally retrieved from the analysis of the spatial Laplace transform of the pressure scanned along a line at the metasurface. The geometrical spreading of the energy from the speaker is accounted for, and both the real and imaginary parts of the SAW wavenumber are obtained. The results show that the strong reduction of the SAW group velocity occurs jointly with a drastic attenuation of the wave, leading to the confinement of the field close to the source and preventing the efficient propagation of such slow-sound surface modes. The method opens perspectives to theoretically predict and experimentally characterize both the dispersion and the attenuation of surface waves at structured surfaces.

Biochemical transport modeling, estimation, and detection in realistic environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Mathias; Nehorai, Arye

2006-05-01

Early detection and estimation of the spread of a biochemical contaminant are major issues for homeland security applications. We present an integrated approach combining the measurements given by an array of biochemical sensors with a physical model of the dispersion and statistical analysis to solve these problems and provide system performance measures. We approximate the dispersion model of the contaminant in a realistic environment through numerical simulations of reflected stochastic diffusions describing the microscopic transport phenomena due to wind and chemical diffusion using the Feynman-Kac formula. We consider arbitrary complex geometries and account for wind turbulence. Localizing the dispersive sources is useful for decontamination purposes and estimation of the cloud evolution. To solve the associated inverse problem, we propose a Bayesian framework based on a random field that is particularly powerful for localizing multiple sources with small amounts of measurements. We also develop a sequential detector using the numerical transport model we propose. Sequential detection allows on-line analysis and detecting wether a change has occurred. We first focus on the formulation of a suitable sequential detector that overcomes the presence of unknown parameters (e.g. release time, intensity and location). We compute a bound on the expected delay before false detection in order to decide the threshold of the test. For a fixed false-alarm rate, we obtain the detection probability of a substance release as a function of its location and initial concentration. Numerical examples are presented for two real-world scenarios: an urban area and an indoor ventilation duct.

A model for estimating air-pollutant uptake by forests: calculation of absorption of sulfur dioxide from dispersed sources

Treesearch

C. E., Jr. Murphy; T. R. Sinclair; K. R. Knoerr

1977-01-01

The computer model presented in this paper is designed to estimate the uptake of air pollutants by forests. The model utilizes submodels to describe atmospheric diffusion immediately above and within the canopy, and into the sink areas within or on the trees. The program implementing the model is general and can be used with only minor changes for any gaseous pollutant...

Estimation of Release History of Pollutant Source and Dispersion Coefficient of Aquifer Using Trained ANN Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, R.; Ayaz, M.; Jain, A.

2013-12-01

Knowledge of the release history of a groundwater pollutant source is critical in the prediction of the future trend of the pollutant movement and in choosing an effective remediation strategy. Moreover, for source sites which have undergone an ownership change, the estimated release history can be utilized for appropriate allocation of the costs of remediation among different parties who may be responsible for the contamination. Estimation of the release history with the help of concentration data is an inverse problem that becomes ill-posed because of the irreversible nature of the dispersion process. Breakthrough curves represent the temporal variation of pollutant concentration at a particular location, and contain significant information about the source and the release history. Several methodologies have been developed to solve the inverse problem of estimating the source and/or porous medium properties using the breakthrough curves as a known input. A common problem in the use of the breakthrough curves for this purpose is that, in most field situations, we have little or no information about the time of measurement of the breakthrough curve with respect to the time when the pollutant source becomes active. We develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to estimate the release history of a groundwater pollutant source through the use of breakthrough curves. It is assumed that the source location is known but the time dependent contaminant source strength is unknown. This temporal variation of the strength of the pollutant source is the output of the ANN model that is trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm utilizing synthetically generated breakthrough curves as inputs. A single hidden layer was used in the neural network and, to utilize just sufficient information and reduce the required sampling duration, only the upper half of the curve is used as the input pattern. The second objective of this work was to identify the aquifer parameters. An ANN model was developed to estimate the longitudinal and transverse dispersion coefficients following a philosophy similar to the one used earlier. Performance of the trained ANN model is evaluated for a 3-Dimensional case, first with perfect data and then with erroneous data with an error level up to 10 percent. Since the solution is highly sensitive to the errors in the input data, instead of using the raw data, we smoothen the upper half of the erroneous breakthrough curve by approximating it with a fourth order polynomial which is used as the input pattern for the ANN model. The main advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only the upper half of the breakthrough curve and, in addition to minimizing the effect of uncertainties in the tail ends of the breakthrough curve, is capable of estimating both the release history and aquifer parameters reasonably well. Results for the case with erroneous data having different error levels demonstrate the practical applicability and robustness of the ANN models. It is observed that with increase in the error level, the correlation coefficient of the training, testing and validation regressions tends to decrease, although the value stays within acceptable limits even for reasonably large error levels.

76 FR 80754 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Kansas: Regional Haze

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-27

... available in the docket for this rulemaking. The supplemental dispersion modeling provided by the State was... determined by using SNCR costs obtained from Jeffrey Unit 1, and scaling the dollar amount using heat input... impact of Kansas BART sources on all Class I areas impacted. NPCA says that the modeling results...

Utilizing Diffusion Theory to predict carbon dioxide concentration in an indoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramer, Andrew R.

This research details a new method of relating sources of carbon dioxide to carbon dioxide concentration in a room operating in a reduced ventilation mode by utilizing Diffusion Theory. The theoretical basis of this research involved solving Fick's Second Law of Diffusion in spherical coordinates for a source of carbon dioxide flowing at a constant rate and located in the center of an impermeable spherical boundary. The solution was developed using a Laplace Transformation. A spherical diffusion test chamber was constructed and used to validate and benchmark the developed theory. The method was benchmarked by using Dispersion Coefficients for large carbon dioxide flow rates due to diffusion induced convection. The theoretical model was adapted to model a room operating with restricted ventilation in the presence of a known, constant source of carbon dioxide. The room was modeled as a sphere of volume equal to the room and utilized a Dispersion Coefficient that is consistent with published values. The developed Diffusion Model successfully predicted the spatial concentration of carbon dioxide in a room operating in a reduced ventilation mode in the presence of a source of carbon dioxide. The flow rates of carbon dioxide that were used in the room are comparable to the average flow rate of carbon dioxide from a person during quiet breathing, also known as the Tidal Breathing. This indicates the Diffusion Model developed from this research has the potential to correlate carbon dioxide concentration with static occupancy levels which can lead to energy savings through a reduction in air exchange rates when low occupancy is detected.

The mass-sheet degeneracy and time-delay cosmography: analysis of the strong lens RXJ1131-1231

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birrer, Simon; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre, E-mail: simon.birrer@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: adam.amara@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: alexandre.refregier@phys.ethz.ch

We present extended modelling of the strong lens system RXJ1131-1231 with archival data in two HST bands in combination with existing line-of-sight contribution and velocity dispersion estimates. Our focus is on source size and its influence on time-delay cosmography. We therefore examine the impact of mass-sheet degeneracy and especially the degeneracy pointed out by Schneider and Sluse (2013) [1] using the source reconstruction scale. We also extend on previous work by further exploring the effects of priors on the kinematics of the lens and the external convergence in the environment of the lensing system. Our results coming from RXJ1131-1231 aremore » given in a simple analytic form so that they can be easily combined with constraints coming from other cosmological probes. We find that the choice of priors on lens model parameters and source size are subdominant for the statistical errors for H {sub 0} measurements of this systems. The choice of prior for the source is sub-dominant at present (2% uncertainty on H {sub 0}) but may be relevant for future studies. More importantly, we find that the priors on the kinematic anisotropy of the lens galaxy have a significant impact on our cosmological inference. When incorporating all the above modeling uncertainties, we find H {sub 0} = 86.6{sup +6.8}{sub -6.9} km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}, when using kinematic priors similar to other studies. When we use a different kinematic prior motivated by Barnabè et al. (2012) [2] but covering the same anisotropic range, we find H {sub 0} = 74.5{sup +8.0}{sub -7.8} km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}. This means that the choice of kinematic modeling and priors have a significant impact on cosmographic inferences. The way forward is either to get better velocity dispersion measures which would down weight the impact of the priors or to construct physically motivated priors for the velocity dispersion model.« less

Fractional diffusion models of cardiac electrical propagation: role of structural heterogeneity in dispersion of repolarization

PubMed Central

Bueno-Orovio, Alfonso; Kay, David; Grau, Vicente; Rodriguez, Blanca; Burrage, Kevin

2014-01-01

Impulse propagation in biological tissues is known to be modulated by structural heterogeneity. In cardiac muscle, improved understanding on how this heterogeneity influences electrical spread is key to advancing our interpretation of dispersion of repolarization. We propose fractional diffusion models as a novel mathematical description of structurally heterogeneous excitable media, as a means of representing the modulation of the total electric field by the secondary electrical sources associated with tissue inhomogeneities. Our results, analysed against in vivo human recordings and experimental data of different animal species, indicate that structural heterogeneity underlies relevant characteristics of cardiac electrical propagation at tissue level. These include conduction effects on action potential (AP) morphology, the shortening of AP duration along the activation pathway and the progressive modulation by premature beats of spatial patterns of dispersion of repolarization. The proposed approach may also have important implications in other research fields involving excitable complex media. PMID:24920109

Entrainment of solid particles over irregular wavy walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milici, Barbara

2017-11-01

The distribution of inertial particles in turbulent flows is highly nonuniform and is governed by the dynamics of turbulent structures of the underlying carrier flow field which, in turn, is affected by the presence of a loading of dispersed particles. The issue is discussed here focusing on the coupling between near-bed coherent structures and suspended solid particles dynamics, in wall-bounded turbulent multiphase flows, bounded by rough boundaries. The friction Reynolds number of the unladen flow is Reτ=180 and the dispersed phase spans one order of magnitude of particle diameter. The analysis takes into account fluid-particle interaction (two-way coupling) in the frame of the Particle-Source-In-Cell (PSIC) method, using Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) for the carrier phase coupled with Lagrangian Particle Tracking (LPT) for the dispersed phase. The effect of the wall's roughness is taken into account modelling the elastic rebound of particles onto it, instead of using a virtual rebound model.

Dispersed Fringe Sensing Analysis - DFSA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sigrist, Norbert; Shi, Fang; Redding, David C.; Basinger, Scott A.; Ohara, Catherine M.; Seo, Byoung-Joon; Bikkannavar, Siddarayappa A.; Spechler, Joshua A.

2012-01-01

Dispersed Fringe Sensing (DFS) is a technique for measuring and phasing segmented telescope mirrors using a dispersed broadband light image. DFS is capable of breaking the monochromatic light ambiguity, measuring absolute piston errors between segments of large segmented primary mirrors to tens of nanometers accuracy over a range of 100 micrometers or more. The DFSA software tool analyzes DFS images to extract DFS encoded segment piston errors, which can be used to measure piston distances between primary mirror segments of ground and space telescopes. This information is necessary to control mirror segments to establish a smooth, continuous primary figure needed to achieve high optical quality. The DFSA tool is versatile, allowing precise piston measurements from a variety of different optical configurations. DFSA technology may be used for measuring wavefront pistons from sub-apertures defined by adjacent segments (such as Keck Telescope), or from separated sub-apertures used for testing large optical systems (such as sub-aperture wavefront testing for large primary mirrors using auto-collimating flats). An experimental demonstration of the coarse-phasing technology with verification of DFSA was performed at the Keck Telescope. DFSA includes image processing, wavelength and source spectral calibration, fringe extraction line determination, dispersed fringe analysis, and wavefront piston sign determination. The code is robust against internal optical system aberrations and against spectral variations of the source. In addition to the DFSA tool, the software package contains a simple but sophisticated MATLAB model to generate dispersed fringe images of optical system configurations in order to quickly estimate the coarse phasing performance given the optical and operational design requirements. Combining MATLAB (a high-level language and interactive environment developed by MathWorks), MACOS (JPL s software package for Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems), and DFSA provides a unique optical development, modeling and analysis package to study current and future approaches to coarse phasing controlled segmented optical systems.

Pollutant Plume Dispersion over Hypothetical Urban Areas based on Wind Tunnel Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Ziwei; Liu, Chun-Ho

2017-04-01

Gaussian plume model is commonly adopted for pollutant concentration prediction in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). However, it has a number of limitations being applied to pollutant dispersion over complex land-surface morphology. In this study, the friction factor (f), as a measure of aerodynamic resistance induced by rough surfaces in the engineering community, was proposed to parameterize the vertical dispersion coefficient (σz) in the Gaussian model. A series of wind tunnel experiments were carried out to verify the mathematical hypothesis and to characterize plume dispersion as a function of surface roughness as well. Hypothetical urban areas, which were assembled in the form of idealized street canyons of different aspect (building-height-to-street-width) ratios (AR = 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 and 1/12), were fabricated by aligning identical square aluminum bars at different separation apart in cross flows. Pollutant emitted from a ground-level line source into the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) was simulated using water vapour generated by ultrasonic atomizer. The humidity and the velocity (mean and fluctuating components) were measured, respectively, by humidity sensors and hot-wire anemometry (HWA) with X-wire probes in streamwise and vertical directions. Wind tunnel results showed that the pollutant concentration exhibits the conventional Gaussian distribution, suggesting the feasibility of using water vapour as a passive scalar in wind tunnel experiments. The friction factor increased with decreasing aspect ratios (widening the building separation). It was peaked at AR = 1/8 and decreased thereafter. Besides, a positive correlation between σz/xn (x is the distance from the pollutant source) and f1/4 (correlation coefficient r2 = 0.61) was observed, formulating the basic parameterization of plume dispersion over urban areas.

A fluctuating plume dispersion model for the prediction of odour-impact frequencies from continuous stationary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussio, P.; Gnyp, A. W.; Henshaw, P. F.

A fluctuating plume dispersion model has been developed to facilitate the prediction of odour-impact frequencies in the communities surrounding elevated point sources. The model was used to predict the frequencies of occurrence of odours of various magnitudes for 1 h periods. In addition, the model predicted the maximum odour level. The model was tested with an extensive set of data collected in the residential areas surrounding the paint shop of an automotive assembly plant. Most of the perceived odours in the vicinity of the 64, 46 m high stacks ranged between 2 and 7 odour units and generally persisted for less than 30 s. Ninety-eight different field determinations of odour impact frequencies within 1 km of the plant were conducted during the course of the study. To simplify evaluation, the frequencies of occurrence of different odour levels were summed to give the total frequency of occurrence of all readily detectable (>2 OU) odours. The model provided excellent simulation of the total frequencies of occurrence where the odour was frequent (i.e . readily detectable more than 30% of the time). At lower frequencies of occurrence the model prediction was poor. The stability class did not seem to affect the model's ability to predict field frequency values. However, the model provided excellent predictions of the maximum odour levels without being sensitive to either stability class or distance from the source. Ninety-five percent of the predicted maximum values were within a factor of two of the measured field maximum values.

Low birth weight and air pollution in California: Which sources and components drive the risk?

PubMed

Laurent, Olivier; Hu, Jianlin; Li, Lianfa; Kleeman, Michael J; Bartell, Scott M; Cockburn, Myles; Escobedo, Loraine; Wu, Jun

2016-01-01

Intrauterine growth restriction has been associated with exposure to air pollution, but there is a need to clarify which sources and components are most likely responsible. This study investigated the associations between low birth weight (LBW, <2500g) in term born infants (≥37 gestational weeks) and air pollution by source and composition in California, over the period 2001-2008. Complementary exposure models were used: an empirical Bayesian kriging model for the interpolation of ambient pollutant measurements, a source-oriented chemical transport model (using California emission inventories) that estimated fine and ultrafine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM0.1, respectively) mass concentrations (4km×4km) by source and composition, a line-source roadway dispersion model at fine resolution, and traffic index estimates. Birth weight was obtained from California birth certificate records. A case-cohort design was used. Five controls per term LBW case were randomly selected (without covariate matching or stratification) from among term births. The resulting datasets were analyzed by logistic regression with a random effect by hospital, using generalized additive mixed models adjusted for race/ethnicity, education, maternal age and household income. In total 72,632 singleton term LBW cases were included. Term LBW was positively and significantly associated with interpolated measurements of ozone but not total fine PM or nitrogen dioxide. No significant association was observed between term LBW and primary PM from all sources grouped together. A positive significant association was observed for secondary organic aerosols. Exposure to elemental carbon (EC), nitrates and ammonium were also positively and significantly associated with term LBW, but only for exposure during the third trimester of pregnancy. Significant positive associations were observed between term LBW risk and primary PM emitted by on-road gasoline and diesel or by commercial meat cooking sources. Primary PM from wood burning was inversely associated with term LBW. Significant positive associations were also observed between term LBW and ultrafine particle numbers modeled with the line-source roadway dispersion model, traffic density and proximity to roadways. This large study based on complementary exposure metrics suggests that not only primary pollution sources (traffic and commercial meat cooking) but also EC and secondary pollutants are risk factors for term LBW. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

R-LINE: A Line Source Dispersion Model for Near-Surface Releases

EPA Science Inventory

Based on Science Advisory Board and the National Research Councilrecommendations, EPA-ORD initiated research on near-road air quality andhealth effects. Field measurements indicated that exposures to traffic-emitted air pollutants near roads can be influenced by complexities of r...

An experimental study of the impact of trees and urban form on the turbulent dispersion of heavy particles from near ground point sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoll, R., II; Christen, A.; Mahaffee, W.; Salesky, S.; Therias, A.; Caitlin, S.

2016-12-01

Pollution in the form of small particles has a strong impact on a wide variety of urban processes that play an important role in the function of urban ecosystems and ultimately human health and well-being. As a result, a substantial body of research exists on the sources, sinks, and transport characteristics of urban particulate matter. Most of the existing experimental work examining point sources employed gases (e.g., SF6) as the working medium. Furthermore, the focus of most studies has been on the dispersion of pollutants far from the source location. Here, our focus is on the turbulent dispersion of heavy particles in the near source region of a suburban neighborhood. To this end, we conducted a series of heavy particle releases in the Sunset neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada during June, 2017. The particles where dispersed from a near ground point source at two different locations. The Sunset neighborhood is composed mostly of single dwelling detached houses and has been used in numerous previous urban studies. One of the release points was just upwind of a 4-way intersection and the other in the middle of a contiguous block of houses. Each location had a significant density of trees. A minimum of four different successful release events were conducted at each site. During each release, fluorescing micro particles (mean diameter approx. 30 micron) were released from ultrasonic atomizer nozzles for a duration of approximately 20 minutes. The particles where sampled at 50 locations (1.5 m height) in the area downwind of the release over distances from 1-15 times the mean canopy height ( 6 m) using rotating impaction traps. In addition to the 50 sampler locations, instantaneous wind velocities were measured with eight sonic anemometers distributed horizontally and vertically throughout the release area. The resulting particle plume distributions indicate a strong impact of local urban form in the near source region and a high degree of sensitivity to the local wind direction measured from the sonic anemometers. In addition to presenting the experimental data, initial comparisons to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by a mass consistent diagnostic wind field will be presented.

An experimental study of the impact of trees and urban form on the turbulent dispersion of heavy particles from near ground point sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoll, R., II; Christen, A.; Mahaffee, W.; Salesky, S.; Therias, A.; Caitlin, S.

2017-12-01

Pollution in the form of small particles has a strong impact on a wide variety of urban processes that play an important role in the function of urban ecosystems and ultimately human health and well-being. As a result, a substantial body of research exists on the sources, sinks, and transport characteristics of urban particulate matter. Most of the existing experimental work examining point sources employed gases (e.g., SF6) as the working medium. Furthermore, the focus of most studies has been on the dispersion of pollutants far from the source location. Here, our focus is on the turbulent dispersion of heavy particles in the near source region of a suburban neighborhood. To this end, we conducted a series of heavy particle releases in the Sunset neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada during June, 2017. The particles where dispersed from a near ground point source at two different locations. The Sunset neighborhood is composed mostly of single dwelling detached houses and has been used in numerous previous urban studies. One of the release points was just upwind of a 4-way intersection and the other in the middle of a contiguous block of houses. Each location had a significant density of trees. A minimum of four different successful release events were conducted at each site. During each release, fluorescing micro particles (mean diameter approx. 30 micron) were released from ultrasonic atomizer nozzles for a duration of approximately 20 minutes. The particles where sampled at 50 locations (1.5 m height) in the area downwind of the release over distances from 1-15 times the mean canopy height ( 6 m) using rotating impaction traps. In addition to the 50 sampler locations, instantaneous wind velocities were measured with eight sonic anemometers distributed horizontally and vertically throughout the release area. The resulting particle plume distributions indicate a strong impact of local urban form in the near source region and a high degree of sensitivity to the local wind direction measured from the sonic anemometers. In addition to presenting the experimental data, initial comparisons to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by a mass consistent diagnostic wind field will be presented.

Development and Evaluation of a Reactive-Dispersive Plume Model: TexAQS II 2006 Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yong Hoon; Kim, Hyun Soo; Song, Chul Han

2015-04-01

We describe the development and evaluation of a reactive-dispersive plume model (RDPM) that combines a photo-chemistry model with a plume dilution driven by turbulent dispersion of a power-plant plume. The plume transport and turbulent dispersion are derived from a Gaussian plume model and the plume chemistry model uses 71 HxOy-NxOy-CH4 chemistry-related reactions and 184 NMHC-related reactions. Emissions from large-scale point sources have continuously increased due to the rapid industrial growth. To extensively understand and assess atmospheric impacts of the power-plant emissions, a general RDPM was applied to simultaneously simulate the dynamics and photo-chemistry of the Texas power-plant plumes. During the second Texas Air Quality Study 2006 (TexAQS II 2006) on 16 September 2006, pollutant concentrations were measured by NOAA WP-3D aircraft with successive transects across power-plant plumes in Texas, USA. The simulation performances of the RDPM were evaluated by a comparison study, using the observation data obtained from the measurements of a NOAA WP-3D flight during TexAQS II 2006 airborne field campaign. On 16 September, the WP-3D aircraft observed mainly meteorological parameters and particulate species concentrations, traversing the Monticello and Welsh power-plant plumes four times from transects A to D. In addition, some meteorological variables in an initial condition for model simulation were obtained from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output for the specific objects. These power-plant plume cases were selected in this study, because a large number of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide concentrations inside the power-plant plumes were measured without any interruption of other emission sources. For the Monticello and Welsh power-plant plumes, the model-predicted concentrations showed good agreements with the observed concentrations of ambient species (e.g., nitrogen oxides, ozone, sulfur dioxide, etc.) at the four transects. Based on these RDPM results, the power-plant plume chemistry and its possible impacts on atmospheric environments were also analyzed.

Evidence for terrigenic SF6 in groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, Korea: Implications for groundwater dating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koh, Dong-Chan; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Kim, Yongje

2007-01-01

Measurements of the concentrations of dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), tritium (3H), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) in groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, Korea, demonstrate a terrigenic source of SF6. Using a lumped-parameter dispersion model, groundwater was identified as young water (<15 years), old water with negligible CFC-12 and 3H, and binary mixtures of the two. Model calculations using dispersion models and binary mixing based on 3H and CFC-12 concentrations demonstrate a non-atmospheric excess of SF6 relative to CFC-12 and 3H concentrations for more than half of the samples. The non-atmospheric excess SF6 may have originated from terrigenic sources in relict volcanic fluids, which could have acquired SF6 from granites and basement rocks of the island during volcanic activity. Local excess anthropogenic sources of SF6 are unlikely. The SF6 age is biased young relative to the CFC-12 age, typically up to 20 years and as high as 30 years. This age bias is more pronounced in samples of groundwater older than 15 years. The presence of terrigenic SF6 can affect the entire dating range for groundwater in mixtures that contain a fraction of old water.

Local infestation or long-distance migration? The seasonal recolonization of dairy farms by Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) in south central Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Beresford, D V; Sutcliffe, J F

2009-04-01

Stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) populations in south central Ontario, Canada, first occur on dairy farms in late spring, grow exponentially throughout the summer, and are frozen back each autumn. We examined the extent of overwinter persistence on 22 dairy farms in a 55- by 60-km region north of Lake Ontario that spans four climatic zones. Our overwintering sampling of larval habitat identified three farms located in the southern section of the study region as potential overwintering refugia. Using sticky trap catches to identify the timing of first spring appearance at each farm, we then tested two models of how local farm populations are reestablished annually: 1) stable flies disperse from local climatic refuges and colonize neighboring farms (the local source model); and 2) stable flies are carried into the study region by frontal weather systems (the distant source model). The timing of when stable flies first occurred at these farms supported a local source of dispersing colonists from a small proportion of local refuge farms. We discuss our results in terms of how yearly fluctuation in climate would affect refuge farm density in the region and how this, in turn, would shift the recolonization dynamic. Implications for controlling stable flies also are discussed.

Dispersion of Fukushima radionuclides in the global atmosphere and the ocean.

PubMed

Povinec, P P; Gera, M; Holý, K; Hirose, K; Lujaniené, G; Nakano, M; Plastino, W; Sýkora, I; Bartok, J; Gažák, M

2013-11-01

Large quantities of radionuclides were released in March-April 2011 during the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmospheric and marine modeling has been carried out to predict the dispersion of radionuclides worldwide, to compare the predicted and measured radionuclide concentrations, and to assess the impact of the accident on the environment. Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion modeling was used to simulate the dispersion of (137)Cs over America and Europe. Global ocean circulation model was applied to predict the dispersion of (137)Cs in the Pacific Ocean. The measured and simulated (137)Cs concentrations in atmospheric aerosols and in seawater are compared with global fallout and the Chernobyl accident, which represent the main sources of the pre-Fukushima radionuclide background in the environment. The radionuclide concentrations in the atmosphere have been negligible when compared with the Chernobyl levels. The maximum (137)Cs concentration in surface waters of the open Pacific Ocean will be around 20 Bq/m(3). The plume will reach the US coast 4-5 y after the accident, however, the levels will be below 3 Bq/m(3). All the North Pacific Ocean will be labeled with Fukushima (137)Cs 10 y after the accident with concentration bellow 1 Bq/m(3). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation on pollutant dispersion from vehicle exhaust in street configurations.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F; Kellnerová, R; Janour, Z

2009-09-01

The impact of the street configurations on pollutants dispersion from vehicles exhausts within urban canyons was numerically investigated using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using standard kappa - epsilon turbulence model, which was numerically solved based on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations by the commercial CFD code FLUENT. The concentration fields in the urban canyons were examined in three cases of street configurations: (1) a regular-shaped intersection, (2) a T-shaped intersection and (3) a Skew-shaped crossing intersection. Vehicle emissions were simulated as double line sources along the street. The numerical model was validated against wind tunnel results in order to optimize the turbulence model. Numerical predictions agreed reasonably well with wind tunnel results. The results obtained indicate that the mean horizontal velocity was very small in the center near the lower region of street canyon. The lowest turbulent kinetic energy was found at the separation and reattachment points associated with the corner of the down part of the upwind and downwind buildings in the street canyon. The pollutant concentration at the upwind side in the regular-shaped street intersection was higher than that in the T-shaped and Skew-shaped street intersections. Moreover, the results reveal that the street intersections are important factors to predict the flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyon.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Comparison of chlorine and ammonia concentration field trial data with calculated results from a Gaussian atmospheric transport and dispersion model.

PubMed

Bauer, Timothy J

2013-06-15

The Jack Rabbit Test Program was sponsored in April and May 2010 by the Department of Homeland Security Transportation Security Administration to generate source data for large releases of chlorine and ammonia from transport tanks. In addition to a variety of data types measured at the release location, concentration versus time data was measured using sensors at distances up to 500 m from the tank. Release data were used to create accurate representations of the vapor flux versus time for the ten releases. This study was conducted to determine the importance of source terms and meteorological conditions in predicting downwind concentrations and the accuracy that can be obtained in those predictions. Each source representation was entered into an atmospheric transport and dispersion model using simplifying assumptions regarding the source characterization and meteorological conditions, and statistics for cloud duration and concentration at the sensor locations were calculated. A detailed characterization for one of the chlorine releases predicted 37% of concentration values within a factor of two, but cannot be considered representative of all the trials. Predictions of toxic effects at 200 m are relevant to incidents involving 1-ton chlorine tanks commonly used in parts of the United States and internationally. Published by Elsevier B.V.

FLORIDA TOWER FOOTPRINT EXPERIMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

WATSON,T.B.; DIETZ, R.N.; WILKE, R.

2007-01-01

The Florida Footprint experiments were a series of field programs in which perfluorocarbon tracers were released in different configurations centered on a flux tower to generate a data set that can be used to test transport and dispersion models. These models are used to determine the sources of the CO{sub 2} that cause the fluxes measured at eddy covariance towers. Experiments were conducted in a managed slash pine forest, 10 km northeast of Gainesville, Florida, in 2002, 2004, and 2006 and in atmospheric conditions that ranged from well mixed, to very stable, including the transition period between convective conditions atmore » midday to stable conditions after sun set. There were a total of 15 experiments. The characteristics of the PFTs, details of sampling and analysis methods, quality control measures, and analytical statistics including confidence limits are presented. Details of the field programs including tracer release rates, tracer source configurations, and configuration of the samplers are discussed. The result of this experiment is a high quality, well documented tracer and meteorological data set that can be used to improve and validate canopy dispersion models.« less

Operational evaluation of the RLINE dispersion model for studies of traffic-related air pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milando, Chad W.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2018-06-01

Exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAP) remains a key public health issue, and improved exposure measures are needed to support health impact and epidemiologic studies and inform regulatory responses. The recently developed Research LINE source model (RLINE), a Gaussian line source dispersion model, has been used in several epidemiologic studies of TRAP exposure, but evaluations of RLINE's performance in such applications have been limited. This study provides an operational evaluation of RLINE in which predictions of NOx, CO and PM2.5 are compared to observations at air quality monitoring stations located near high traffic roads in Detroit, MI. For CO and NOx, model performance was best at sites close to major roads, during downwind conditions, during weekdays, and during certain seasons. For PM2.5, the ability to discern local and particularly the traffic-related portion was limited, a result of high background levels, the sparseness of the monitoring network, and large uncertainties for certain processes (e.g., formation of secondary aerosols) and non-mobile sources (e.g., area, fugitive). Overall, RLINE's performance in near-road environments suggests its usefulness for estimating spatially- and temporally-resolved exposures. The study highlights considerations relevant to health impact and epidemiologic applications, including the importance of selecting appropriate pollutants, using appropriate monitoring approaches, considering prevailing wind directions during study design, and accounting for uncertainty.

A theoretical model of the evolution of maternal effects under parent-offspring conflict.

PubMed

Uller, Tobias; Pen, Ido

2011-07-01

The evolution of maternal effects on offspring phenotype should depend on the extent of parent-offspring conflict and costs and constraints associated with maternal and offspring strategies. Here, we develop a model of maternal effects on offspring dispersal phenotype under parent-offspring conflict to evaluate such dependence. In the absence of evolutionary constraints and costs, offspring evolve dispersal rates from different patch types that reflect their own, rather than the maternal, optima. This result also holds true when offspring are unable to assess their own environment because the maternal phenotype provides an additional source of information. Consequently, maternal effects on offspring diapause, dispersal, and other traits that do not necessarily represent costly resource investment are more likely to maximize offspring than maternal fitness. However, when trait expression was costly, the evolutionarily stable dispersal rates tended to deviate from those under both maternal and offspring control. We use our results to (re)interpret some recent work on maternal effects and their adaptive value and provide suggestions for future work. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Dispersion of a Passive Scalar Within and Above an Urban Street Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulart, E. V.; Coceal, O.; Belcher, S. E.

2018-03-01

The transport of a passive scalar from a continuous point-source release in an urban street network is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). Dispersion through the network is characterized by evaluating horizontal fluxes of scalar within and above the urban canopy and vertical exchange fluxes through the canopy top. The relative magnitude and balance of these fluxes are used to distinguish three different regions relative to the source location: a near-field region, a transition region and a far-field region. The partitioning of each of these fluxes into mean and turbulent parts is computed. It is shown that within the canopy the horizontal turbulent flux in the street network is small, whereas above the canopy it comprises a significant fraction of the total flux. Vertical fluxes through the canopy top are predominantly turbulent. The mean and turbulent fluxes are respectively parametrized in terms of an advection velocity and a detrainment velocity and the parametrization incorporated into a simple box-network model. The model treats the coupled dispersion problem within and above the street network in a unified way and predictions of mean concentrations compare well with the DNS data. This demonstrates the usefulness of the box-network approach for process studies and interpretation of results from more detailed numerical simulations.

High Fidelity Modeling of Field Reversed Configuration (FRC) Thrusters

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

dispersion depends on the Riemann solver • Variables are allowed to be discontinuous at the cell interfaces Advantages - Method is conservative...release; distribution unlimited Discontinuous Galerkin (2) • Riemann problems are solved at each interface to compute fluxes • The source of dissipation

Model-Derived Dispersal Pathways from Multiple Source Populations Explain Variability of Invertebrate Larval Supply

PubMed Central

Domingues, Carla P.; Nolasco, Rita; Dubert, Jesus; Queiroga, Henrique

2012-01-01

Background Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a bio-physical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p<0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of −6 to +5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p<0.001, and r = 0.79, p<0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provide meaningful predictions of the patterns and causes of fine-scale variability in larval supply to marine populations. PMID:22558225

Modelling of dispersal and deposition of impact glass spherules from the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary deposit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Espindola, J. M.; Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

1993-01-01

The dispersal of glass spherules or tektites from a bolide impact with the Earth is modelled as ballistic trajectories in standard atmosphere. Ballistic dispersal of Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary impact glass spherules found in Haiti and Mimbral, Mexico requires a fireball radius in excess of 50 km but less than 100 km to account for the observed distribution. Glass spherules from 1 and up to 8 mm in diameter have been found at the KT boundary at Beloc in Haiti, at Mimbral, Mexico, and at DSDP Sites 536 and 540 in the Gulf of Mexico corresponding to paleodistances of 600 to 1000 km from the Chicxulub crater. In Haiti the basal and major glass-bearing unit at the KT boundary is attributed to fallout on basis of sedimentologic features. When compared with theoretical and observed dispersal of volcanic ejecta, the grain size versus distance relationship of the KT boundary tektite fallout is extreme, and rules out a volcanic fallout origin. At a comparable distance from source, the KT impact glass spherules are more than an order of mangitude coarser than ejecta of the largest known volcanic events. We model the dispersal of KT boundary impact glass spherules as ballistic ejecta from a fireball generated by the impact of a 10 km diameter bolide. Mass of ejecta in the fireball is taken as twice the bolide mass. Melt droplets are accelerated by gas flow in the fireball cloud, and leave the fireball on ballistic trajectories within the atmosphere, subject to drag, depending on angle of ejection and altitude. The model for ballistic dispersal is based on equations of motion, drag and ablation for silicate spheres in standard atmosphere.

Influence of boundary-layer dynamics on pollen dispersion and viability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, Raymond W.; Viner, Brian J.; Westgate, Mark E.

2013-04-01

Adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops has raised concerns that GM traits can accidentally cross into conventional crops or wild relatives through the transport of wind-borne pollen. In order to evaluate this risk it is necessary to account both for dispersion of the pollen grains and environmental influences on pollen viability. The Lagrangian approach is suited to this problem because it allows tracking the environmental temperature and moisture that pollen grains experience as they travel. Taking advantage of this capability we have combined a high-resolution version of the WRF meteorological model with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to predict maize pollen dispersion and viability. WRF is used to obtain fields of wind, turbulence kinetic energy, temperature, and humidity which are then used as input to the Lagrangian dispersion model. The dispersion model in turn predicts transport of a statistical sample of a pollen cloud from source plants to receptors. We also use the three-dimensional temperature and moisture fields from WRF to diagnose changes in moisture content of the pollen grains and consequent loss of viability. Results show that turbulent motions in the convective boundary layer counteract the large terminal velocity of maize pollen grains and lift them to heights of several hundred meters, so that they can be transported long distances before settling to the ground. We also found that pollen lifted into the upper part of the boundary layer remains more viable than has been inferred using surface observations of temperature and humidity. This is attributed to the thermal and moisture structure that typifies the daytime atmospheric boundary layer, producing an environment of low vapor pressure deficit in the upper boundary layer which helps maintain pollen viability.

Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation Algorithm Assessment for Rural and Urban Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Monache, L.; Rodriguez, L. M.; Meech, S.; Hahn, D.; Betancourt, T.; Steinhoff, D.

2016-12-01

It is necessary to accurately estimate the initial source characteristics in the event of an accidental or intentional release of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) agent into the atmosphere. The accurate estimation of the source characteristics are important because many times they are unknown and the Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) models rely heavily on these estimates to create hazard assessments. To correctly assess the source characteristics in an operational environment where time is critical, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed a Source Term Estimation (STE) method, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement STE algorithm (VIRSA). VIRSA consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include an AT&D model, its corresponding STE model, a Hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian Plume Model (H-LEPM), and its mathematical adjoint model. In an operational scenario where we have information regarding the infrastructure of a city, the AT&D model used is the Urban Dispersion Model (UDM) and when using this model in VIRSA we refer to the system as uVIRSA. In all other scenarios where we do not have the city infrastructure information readily available, the AT&D model used is the Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF model (SCIPUFF) and the system is referred to as sVIRSA. VIRSA was originally developed using SCIPUFF 2.4 for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and integrated into the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability and Joint Program for Information Systems Joint Effects Model. The results discussed here are the verification and validation of the upgraded system with SCIPUFF 3.0 and the newly implemented UDM capability. To verify uVIRSA and sVIRSA, synthetic concentration observation scenarios were created in urban and rural environments and the results of this verification are shown. Finally, we validate the STE performance of uVIRSA using scenarios from the Joint Urban 2003 (JU03) experiment, which was held in Oklahoma City and also validate the performance of sVIRSA using scenarios from the FUsing Sensor Integrated Observing Network (FUSION) Field Trial 2007 (FFT07), held at Dugway Proving Grounds in rural Utah.

A shoreline fumigation model with wind shear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhibian, Li; Zengquan, Yao

A fumigation model has been developed for a plume discharged from an elevated stack in a shoreline environment by introducing different wind directions above and within thermal internal boundary laye:r (TIBL) into a dispersion model. When a continuous point source release occurs above the TIBL pollutants will disperse in the marine stable flow, until the plume intersects the TIBL surface. The fumigation in ithe TIBL is interpreted as occurring from an area source on the imaginary surface of the TIBL. It is assumed that the wind direction varies with height above and below L( x) = Ax2, the height of the TIBL at the distance x. The change of wind direction above and within the TIBL causes the pollutants to change their direction of transport and leads to development of a curved ground level concentration (glc) axis; a decreasing glc along the centreline of the fumigation and a widening pollutant distribution in the transverse direction. Predicted concentration distributions using the wind shear model are compared with observations from an SF 6 tracer experiment near Hangzhou Bay in May-June of 1987. The comparison and an evaluation of the model performance show that the new model is not only more theoretically acceptable than those based on empirical coefficients but also provides concentration distributions which agree well with. SF 6 tracer experiments.

Combined analysis of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations at a complex smelting facility.

PubMed

Rehbein, Peter J G; Kennedy, Michael G; Cotsman, David J; Campeau, Madonna A; Greenfield, Monika M; Annett, Melissa A; Lepage, Mike F

2014-03-01

Vale Canada Limited owns and operates a large nickel smelting facility located in Sudbury, Ontario. This is a complex facility with many sources of SO2 emissions, including a mix of source types ranging from passive building roof vents to North America's tallest stack. In addition, as this facility performs batch operations, there is significant variability in the emission rates depending on the operations that are occurring. Although SO2 emission rates for many of the sources have been measured by source testing, the reliability of these emission rates has not been tested from a dispersion modeling perspective. This facility is a significant source of SO2 in the local region, making it critical that when modeling the emissions from this facility for regulatory or other purposes, that the resulting concentrations are representative of what would actually be measured or otherwise observed. To assess the accuracy of the modeling, a detailed analysis of modeled and monitored data for SO2 at the facility was performed. A mobile SO2 monitor sampled at five locations downwind of different source groups for different wind directions resulting in a total of 168 hr of valid data that could be used for the modeled to monitored results comparison. The facility was modeled in AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model) using site-specific meteorological data such that the modeled periods coincided with the same times as the monitored events. In addition, great effort was invested into estimating the actual SO2 emission rates that would likely be occurring during each of the monitoring events. SO2 concentrations were modeled for receptors around each monitoring location so that the modeled data could be directly compared with the monitored data. The modeled and monitored concentrations were compared and showed that there were no systematic biases in the modeled concentrations. This paper is a case study of a Combined Analysis of Modelled and Monitored Data (CAMM), which is an approach promulgated within air quality regulations in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Although combining dispersion models and monitoring data to estimate or refine estimates of source emission rates is not a new technique, this study shows how, with a high degree of rigor in the design of the monitoring and filtering of the data, it can be applied to a large industrial facility, with a variety of emission sources. The comparison of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations in this case study also provides an illustration of the AERMOD model performance for a large industrial complex with many sources, at short time scales in comparison with monitored data. Overall, this analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD model performed well.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

PubMed

Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

2013-11-01

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

Effective pollutant emission heights for atmospheric transport modelling based on real-world information.

PubMed

Pregger, Thomas; Friedrich, Rainer

2009-02-01

Emission data needed as input for the operation of atmospheric models should not only be spatially and temporally resolved. Another important feature is the effective emission height which significantly influences modelled concentration values. Unfortunately this information, which is especially relevant for large point sources, is usually not available and simple assumptions are often used in atmospheric models. As a contribution to improve knowledge on emission heights this paper provides typical default values for the driving parameters stack height and flue gas temperature, velocity and flow rate for different industrial sources. The results were derived from an analysis of the probably most comprehensive database of real-world stack information existing in Europe based on German industrial data. A bottom-up calculation of effective emission heights applying equations used for Gaussian dispersion models shows significant differences depending on source and air pollutant and compared to approaches currently used for atmospheric transport modelling.

Detailed source term estimation of atmospheric release during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident by coupling atmospheric and oceanic dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, Genki; Chino, Masamichi; Terada, Hiroaki; Kobayashi, Takuya; Ota, Masakazu; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kajino, Mizuo

2014-05-01

Temporal variations of release amounts of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident and their dispersion process are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. Here, we estimated a detailed time trend of atmospheric releases during the accident by combining environmental monitoring data and coupling atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations by WSPEEDI-II (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and SEA-GEARN developed by the authors. New schemes for wet, dry, and fog depositions of radioactive iodine gas (I2 and CH3I) and other particles (I-131, Te-132, Cs-137, and Cs-134) were incorporated into WSPEEDI-II. The deposition calculated by WSPEEDI-II was used as input data of ocean dispersion calculations by SEA-GEARN. The reverse estimation method based on the simulation by both models assuming unit release rate (1 Bq h-1) was adopted to estimate the source term at the FNPP1 using air dose rate, and air sea surface concentrations. The results suggested that the major release of radionuclides from the FNPP1 occurred in the following periods during March 2011: afternoon on the 12th when the venting and hydrogen explosion occurred at Unit 1, morning on the 13th after the venting event at Unit 3, midnight on the 14th when several openings of SRV (steam relief valve) were conducted at Unit 2, morning and night on the 15th, and morning on the 16th. The modified WSPEEDI-II using the newly estimated source term well reproduced local and regional patterns of air dose rate and surface deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 obtained by airborne observations. Our dispersion simulations also revealed that the highest radioactive contamination areas around FNPP1 were created from 15th to 16th March by complicated interactions among rainfall (wet deposition), plume movements, and phase properties (gas or particle) of I-131 and release rates associated with reactor pressure variations in Units 2 and 3.

Wind tunnel simulation of air pollution dispersion in a street canyon.

PubMed

Civis, Svatopluk; Strizík, Michal; Janour, Zbynek; Holpuch, Jan; Zelinger, Zdenek

2002-01-01

Physical simulation was used to study pollution dispersion in a street canyon. The street canyon model was designed to study the effect of measuring flow and concentration fields. A method of C02-laser photoacoustic spectrometry was applied for detection of trace concentration of gas pollution. The advantage of this method is its high sensitivity and broad dynamic range, permitting monitoring of concentrations from trace to saturation values. Application of this method enabled us to propose a simple model based on line permeation pollutant source, developed on the principle of concentration standards, to ensure high precision and homogeneity of the concentration flow. Spatial measurement of the concentration distribution inside the street canyon was performed on the model with reference velocity of 1.5 m/s.

Overview of the Brooklyn traffic real-time ambient pollutant penetration and environmental dispersion (B-TRAPPED) study: theoretical background and model for design of field experiments.

PubMed

Hahn, Intaek; Wiener, Russell W; Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer; Brixey, Laurie A; Henkle, Stacy W

2009-12-01

The Brooklyn traffic real-time ambient pollutant penetration and environmental dispersion (B-TRAPPED) study was a multidisciplinary field research project that investigated the transport, dispersion, and infiltration processes of traffic emission particulate matter (PM) pollutants in a near-highway urban residential area. The urban PM transport, dispersion, and infiltration processes were described mathematically in a theoretical model that was constructed to develop the experimental objectives of the B-TRAPPED study. In the study, simultaneous and continuous time-series PM concentration and meteorological data collected at multiple outdoor and indoor monitoring locations were used to characterize both temporal and spatial patterns of the PM concentration movements within microscale distances (<500 m) from the highway. Objectives of the study included (1) characterizing the temporal and spatial PM concentration fluctuation and distribution patterns in the urban street canyon; (2) investigating the effects of urban structures such as a tall building or an intersection on the transport and dispersion of PM; (3) studying the influence of meteorological variables on the transport, dispersion, and infiltration processes; (4) characterizing the relationships between the building parameters and the infiltration mechanisms; (5) establishing a cause-and-effect relationship between outdoor-released PM and indoor PM concentrations and identifying the dominant mechanisms involved in the infiltration process; (6) evaluating the effectiveness of a shelter-in-place area for protection against outdoor-released PM pollutants; and (7) understanding the predominant airflow and pollutant dispersion patterns within the neighborhood using wind tunnel and CFD simulations. The 10 papers in this first set of papers presenting the results from the B-TRAPPED study address these objectives. This paper describes the theoretical background and models representing the interrelated processes of transport, dispersion, and infiltration. The theoretical solution for the relationship between the time-dependent indoor PM concentration and the initial PM concentration at the outdoor source was obtained. The theoretical models and solutions helped us to identify important parameters in the processes of transport, dispersion, and infiltration. The B-TRAPPED study field experiments were then designed to investigate these parameters in the hope of better understanding urban PM pollutant behaviors.

Use of chlorine-36 to determine regional-scale aquifer dispersivity, eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho/USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecil, L.D.; Welhan, J.A.; Green, J.R.; Grape, S.K.; Sudicky, E.R.

2000-01-01

Chlorine-36 (36Cl) derived from processed nuclear waste that was disposed at the US Department of Energy's Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) through a deep injection well in 1958, was detected 24-28 yr later in groundwater monitoring wells approximately 26 km downgradient from the source. Groundwater samples covering the period 1966-1995 were selected from the US Geological Survey's archived-sample library at the INEEL and analyzed for 36Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The smaller 36Cl peak concentrations in water from the far-field monitoring wells relative to the input suggest that aquifer dispersivity may be large. However, the sharpness of the 1958 disposal peak of 36Cl is matched by the measured 36Cl concentrations in water from these wells. This implies that a small aquifer dispersivity may be attributed to preferential groundwater flowpaths. Assuming that tracer arrival times at monitoring wells are controlled by preferential flow, a 1-D system-response model was used to estimate dispersivity by comparing the shape of predicted 36Cl-concentration curves to the shape of 36Cl-concentration curves measured in water from these observation wells. The comparisons suggest that a 1-D dispersivity of 5 m provides the best fit to the tracer data. Previous work using a 2-D equivalent porous-media model concluded that longitudinal dispersivity (equivalent to 1-D dispersivity in our model) was 90 m (Ackerman, 1991). A 90 m dispersivity value eliminates the 1958 disposal peak in our model output curves. The implications of the arrival of 36Cl at downgradient monitoring wells are important for three reasons: (1) the arrival times and associated 36Cl concentrations provide quantitative constraints on residence times, velocities, and dispersivities in the aquifer; (2) they help to refine our working hypotheses of groundwater flow in this aquifer and (3) they may suggest a means of estimating the distribution of preferential flowpaths in the aquifer. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Air pollution from gas flaring: new emission factor estimates and detection in a West African aerosol remote-sensing climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacKenzie, Rob; Fawole, Olusegun Gabriel; Levine, James; Cai, Xiaoming

2016-04-01

Gas flaring, the disposal of gas through stacks in an open-air flame, is a common feature in the processing of crude oil, especially in oil-rich regions of the world. Gas flaring is a prominent source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), CO, CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx), SO2 (in "sour" gas only), and soot (black carbon), as well as the release of locally significant amounts of heat. The rates of emission of these pollutants from gas flaring depend on a number of factors including, but not limited to, fuel composition and quantity, stack geometry, flame/combustion characteristics, and prevailing meteorological conditions. Here, we derive new estimated emission factors (EFs) for carbon-containing pollutants (excluding PAH). The air pollution dispersion model, ADMS5, is used to simulate the dispersion of the pollutants from flaring stacks in the Niger delta. A seasonal variation of the dispersion pattern of the pollutant within a year is studied in relation to the movements of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) and other prevailing meteorological factors. Further, we have clustered AERONET aerosol signals using trajectory analysis to identify dominant aerosol sources at the Ilorin site in West Africa (4.34 oE, 8.32 oN). A 10-year trajectory-based analysis was undertaken (2005-2015, excluding 2010). Of particular interest are air masses that have passed through the gas flaring region in the Niger Delta area en-route the AERONET site. 7-day back trajectories were calculated using the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) trajectory model which is driven by analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). From the back-trajectory calculations, dominant sources are identified, using literature classifications: desert dust (DD); Biomass burning (BB); and Urban-Industrial (UI). We use a combination of synoptic trajectories and aerosol optical properties to distinguish a fourth source: that due to gas flaring. We discuss the relative impact of these different aerosol sources on the overall radiative forcing at Ilorin AERONET site.

Identifying Sources of Long-Distance Transported Pollution to the Arctic using δ13C in CH4 and Particle Dispersion Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

France, J. L.; Fisher, R. E.; Lowry, D.; Lanoiselle, M.; Cain, M.; Pyle, J. A.; Illingworth, S.; Allen, G.; Gallagher, M. W.; O'Shea, S.; Muller, J.; Bauguitte, S.; Nisbet, E. G.

2013-12-01

A stratified pollution plume of increased CH4 was identified at ~2000ft to ~7000ft altitude between the North coast of Norway and Svalbard on 21st July, 2012. The increased CH4 was identified through continuous CH4 measurements using a fast greenhouse gas analyser on board the NERC FAAM aircraft as part of the MAMM (Methane in the Arctic: Measurements and Modelling) campaign. Measurements of δ13C in CH4 on air samples taken whilst the aircraft was in the pollution plume demonstrate that the plume has a δ13C in CH4 source signature of -70 ‰. (×2.1 ‰). A δ13C source signature of -70 ‰ (×2.1 ‰) is within the expected boundaries of δ13C for wetland emissions in the Arctic (-70 to - 60‰ (Dlugokencky, Nisbet, Fisher, & Lowry, 2011)). The NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) model was run backwards from the measurement locations to identify periods where the measured air mass was in contact with the surface (lowest 300 m of the atmosphere). Combining the results together show that the likely source of the elevated methane measured is from wetlands located in North-West Russia. By sampling stratified air at altitude using the FAAM aircraft as a measurement platform, the joint application of isotopic source identification and NAME modelling allows identification of methane plumes from sources that we would otherwise not be able to sample, due to either remote access and / or political reasons (providing that suitable meteorological conditions exist). The use of this joined up approach will give us an extra tool in adding data to the global inventory of δ13C in CH4 source signatures and will enable better understanding of the sources of above background concentrations of CH4 to the Arctic. References. Dlugokencky, E. J., Nisbet, E. G., Fisher, R., & Lowry, D. (2011). Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 369(1943), 2058-72. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0341

Bayesian inverse modeling and source location of an unintended 131I release in Europe in the fall of 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek; Šindelářová, Kateřina; Hýža, Miroslav; Stohl, Andreas

2017-10-01

In the fall of 2011, iodine-131 (131I) was detected at several radionuclide monitoring stations in central Europe. After investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed by Hungarian authorities that 131I was released from the Institute of Isotopes Ltd. in Budapest, Hungary. It was reported that a total activity of 342 GBq of 131I was emitted between 8 September and 16 November 2011. In this study, we use the ambient concentration measurements of 131I to determine the location of the release as well as its magnitude and temporal variation. As the location of the release and an estimate of the source strength became eventually known, this accident represents a realistic test case for inversion models. For our source reconstruction, we use no prior knowledge. Instead, we estimate the source location and emission variation using only the available 131I measurements. Subsequently, we use the partial information about the source term available from the Hungarian authorities for validation of our results. For the source determination, we first perform backward runs of atmospheric transport models and obtain source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrices for each grid cell of our study domain. We use two dispersion models, FLEXPART and Hysplit, driven with meteorological analysis data from the global forecast system (GFS) and from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather forecast models. Second, we use a recently developed inverse method, least-squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC), to determine the 131I emissions and their temporal variation from the measurements and computed SRS matrices. For each grid cell of our simulation domain, we evaluate the probability that the release was generated in that cell using Bayesian model selection. The model selection procedure also provides information about the most suitable dispersion model for the source term reconstruction. Third, we select the most probable location of the release with its associated source term and perform a forward model simulation to study the consequences of the iodine release. Results of these procedures are compared with the known release location and reported information about its time variation. We find that our algorithm could successfully locate the actual release site. The estimated release period is also in agreement with the values reported by IAEA and the reported total released activity of 342 GBq is within the 99 % confidence interval of the posterior distribution of our most likely model.

Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Folch, A.; Macedonio, G.; Giaccio, B.; Isaia, R.; Smith, V. C.

2012-05-01

We apply a novel computational approach to assess, for the first time, volcanic ash dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) super-eruption providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of this gigantic event. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, a set of wind fields, and more than 100 thickness measurements of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that the CI eruption dispersed 250-300 km3 of ash over ˜3.7 million km2. The injection of such a large quantity of ash (and volatiles) into the atmosphere would have caused a volcanic winter during the Heinrich Event 4, the coldest and driest climatic episode of the Last Glacial period. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle-Early Upper Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Dispersion engineering of mode-locked fibre lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, R. I.

2018-03-01

Mode-locked fibre lasers are important sources of ultrashort pulses, where stable pulse generation is achieved through a balance of periodic amplitude and phase evolutions. A range of distinct cavity pulse dynamics have been revealed, arising from the interplay between dispersion and nonlinearity in addition to dissipative processes such as filtering. This has led to the discovery of numerous novel operating regimes, offering significantly improved laser performance. In this Topical Review, we summarise the main steady-state pulse dynamics reported to date through cavity dispersion engineering, including average solitons, dispersion-managed solitons, dissipative solitons, giant-chirped pulses and similaritons. Characteristic features and the stabilisation mechanism of each regime are described, supported by numerical modelling, in addition to the typical performance and limitations. Opportunities for further pulse energy scaling are discussed, in addition to considering other recent advances including automated self-tuning cavities and fluoride-fibre-based mid-infrared mode-locked lasers.

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

2015-01-01

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

Parameterizing Urban Canopy Layer transport in an Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stöckl, Stefan; Rotach, Mathias W.

2016-04-01

The percentage of people living in urban areas is rising worldwide, crossed 50% in 2007 and is even higher in developed countries. High population density and numerous sources of air pollution in close proximity can lead to health issues. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of urban pollutant dispersion. In the last decades this field has experienced considerable progress, however the influence of large roughness elements is complex and has as of yet not been completely described. Hence, this work studied urban particle dispersion close to source and ground. It used an existing, steady state, three-dimensional Lagrangian particle dispersion model, which includes Roughness Sublayer parameterizations of turbulence and flow. The model is valid for convective and neutral to stable conditions and uses the kernel method for concentration calculation. As most Lagrangian models, its lower boundary is the zero-plane displacement, which means that roughly the lower two-thirds of the mean building height are not included in the model. This missing layer roughly coincides with the Urban Canopy Layer. An earlier work "traps" particles hitting the lower model boundary for a recirculation period, which is calculated under the assumption of a vortex in skimming flow, before "releasing" them again. The authors hypothesize that improving the lower boundary condition by including Urban Canopy Layer transport could improve model predictions. This was tested herein by not only trapping the particles, but also advecting them with a mean, parameterized flow in the Urban Canopy Layer. Now the model calculates the trapping period based on either recirculation due to vortex motion in skimming flow regimes or vertical velocity if no vortex forms, depending on incidence angle of the wind on a randomly chosen street canyon. The influence of this modification, as well as the model's sensitivity to parameterization constants, was investigated. To reach this goal, the model was initialized and compared with meteorological and SF6 tracer measurements from the Basel UrBan Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE). The proposed modification does not improve the model's agreement with concentration observations, even though the trapping time shows promising agreement with measurements. Additionally, the modification's influence is smaller than those of different turbulence profiles, zero-plane displacement height and Roughness Sublayer height.

Evaluation of the impact of wood combustion on benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations; ambient measurements and dispersion modeling in Helsinki, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellén, Heidi; Kangas, Leena; Kousa, Anu; Vestenius, Mika; Teinilä, Kimmo; Karppinen, Ari; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Niemi, Jarkko V.

2017-03-01

Even though emission inventories indicate that wood combustion is a major source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), estimating its impacts on PAH concentration in ambient air remains challenging. In this study the effect of local small-scale wood combustion on the benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air in the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland is evaluated, using ambient air measurements, emission estimates, and dispersion modeling. The measurements were conducted at 12 different locations during the period from 2007 to 2015. The spatial distributions of annual average BaP concentrations originating from wood combustion were predicted for four of those years: 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2014. According to both the measurements and the dispersion modeling, the European Union target value for the annual average BaP concentrations (1 ng m-3) was clearly exceeded in certain suburban detached-house areas. However, in most of the other urban areas, including the center of Helsinki, the concentrations were below the target value. The measured BaP concentrations highly correlated with the measured levoglucosan concentrations in the suburban detached-house areas. In street canyons, the measured concentrations of BaP were at the same level as those in the urban background, clearly lower than those in suburban detached-house areas. The predicted annual average concentrations matched with the measured concentrations fairly well. Both the measurements and the modeling clearly indicated that wood combustion was the main local source of ambient air BaP in the Helsinki metropolitan area.

Pollutant dispersion in a large indoor space: Part 1 -- Scaled experiments using a water-filled model with occupants and furniture.

PubMed

Thatcher, T L; Wilson, D J; Wood, E E; Craig, M J; Sextro, R G

2004-08-01

Scale modeling is a useful tool for analyzing complex indoor spaces. Scale model experiments can reduce experimental costs, improve control of flow and temperature conditions, and provide a practical method for pretesting full-scale system modifications. However, changes in physical scale and working fluid (air or water) can complicate interpretation of the equivalent effects in the full-scale structure. This paper presents a detailed scaling analysis of a water tank experiment designed to model a large indoor space, and experimental results obtained with this model to assess the influence of furniture and people in the pollutant concentration field at breathing height. Theoretical calculations are derived for predicting the effects from losses of molecular diffusion, small scale eddies, turbulent kinetic energy, and turbulent mass diffusivity in a scale model, even without Reynolds number matching. Pollutant dispersion experiments were performed in a water-filled 30:1 scale model of a large room, using uranine dye injected continuously from a small point source. Pollutant concentrations were measured in a plane, using laser-induced fluorescence techniques, for three interior configurations: unobstructed, table-like obstructions, and table-like and figure-like obstructions. Concentrations within the measurement plane varied by more than an order of magnitude, even after the concentration field was fully developed. Objects in the model interior had a significant effect on both the concentration field and fluctuation intensity in the measurement plane. PRACTICAL IMPLICATION: This scale model study demonstrates both the utility of scale models for investigating dispersion in indoor environments and the significant impact of turbulence created by furnishings and people on pollutant transport from floor level sources. In a room with no furniture or occupants, the average concentration can vary by about a factor of 3 across the room. Adding furniture and occupants can increase this spatial variation by another factor of 3.

Whistlers in Neptune's magnetosphere: Evidence of atmospheric lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurnett, D. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Cairns, I. H.; Granroth, L. J.

1990-01-01

During the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune, a series of 16 whistler-like events were detected by the plasma wave instrument near closest approach. These events were observed at radial distances from 1.30 to 1.99 R sub N and magnetic latitudes from -7 to 33 deg. The frequencies ranged from 6.1 to 12.0 kHz, and the dispersions fit the Eckersley law for lightning-generated whistlers. Lightning in the atmosphere of Neptune is the only known source of such signals. The frequency range of the whistlers (up to 12 kHz) indicates that the local electron densities are substantially higher (N sub e greater than 30 t0 100 per cu cm) than indicated by the in situ plasma measurements. The dispersion of the whistlers is very large, typically 26,000 sec Hz(exp 0.5). Based on existing plasma density models and measurements, the dispersions are too large to be accounted for by a single direct path from the lightning source to the spacecraft. Therefore, multiple bounces from one hemisphere to the other are required. The most likely propagation path probably involves a lightning source on the dayside of the planet, with repeated bounces through the dense dayside ionosphere at low L-values.

A case study of pollutants transported from HPCL (vishakhapatnam) accidental fire through synergy of flexpart model and ground-based instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wankhede, Tushar

Tushar Wankhede*, Harish Gadhavi, Amit K. Pandit National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki-517112, Chittoor, A.P. *tushar1771@gmail.com, Mobile: +91-8297152481 A fire at Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) in Vishakhapatnam (17.70 ˚N, 83.24˚E) resulted from a gas leak in the salt water cooling tower system. This led to the release of various pollutants like hydrocarbons, black carbon, carbon mono-oxide and carbon dioxide etc(other gases) in just 44 min of fire in system a very huge amount of particles were emitted. The transport of these pollutants has been studied through FLEXPART which is a Lagrangian particle dispersion model having wide range of applications in atmospheric transport modeling. FLEXPART simulation of this accidental fire shows the direction and sensitivity of dispersed pollutants from its source. It was observed that the pollutants reached Gadanki, a rural site located at 13.45 ˚N, 79.18 ˚E in Southern-India. The concentration of pollutant obtained from FLEXPART output we are comparing with ground based instruments data collected at the observation site (Indian Climate Observatory Network-ICON, NARL Gadanki). This case-study provides significant information about the life-time of dispersed pollutants and their long-range transport pattern under the influence of small weather variability en-route from source to receptor. The detailed work of FLEXPART for the Long range transport of the particles will be presented later on in conference.

User's manual for the REEDM (Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model) computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorklund, J. R.; Dumbauld, R. K.; Cheney, C. S.; Geary, H. V.

1982-01-01

The REEDM computer program predicts concentrations, dosages, and depositions downwind from normal and abnormal launches of rocket vehicles at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The atmospheric dispersion models, cloud-rise models, and other formulas used in the REEDM model are described mathematically Vehicle and source parameters, other pertinent physical properties of the rocket exhaust cloud, and meteorological layering techniques are presented as well as user's instructions for REEDM. Worked example problems are included.

A sediment-dispersal model for the South Texas continental shelf, northwest Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shideler, G.L.

1978-01-01

Textural-distribution patterns of sea-floor sediments on the South Texas continental shelf between Matagorda Bay and the U.S.-Mexico international boundary were evaluated as part of a regional environmental-studies program. Sediment textural gradients support a conceptual model for the regional sediment-dispersal system, which is characterized by both net offshore transport and net south-trending coastwise transport components on a wind-dominated shelf. Coastwise transport results in the net southward migration of both palimpsest sandy mud composing the ancestral Brazos-Colorado delta flank in the northern sector, and modern mud composing the central sector; these migrating sediments are encroaching southward onto immobile relict muddy sands composing the ancestral Rio Grande delta in the southern sector. In the proposed model, the suspension transport of modern silt-enriched mud derived mainly from coastal sources is the dominant dispersal mechanism. Net offshore transport is attributed both to diffusion, and to the advective ebb-tide discharge of turbid lagoonal-estuarine waters from coastal inlets. Net southward transport is attributed mainly to advection by seasonally residual coastwise drift currents reflecting a winter-dominated hydraulic regime. Frequent winter storms characterized by relatively high-speed northerly winds that accompany the passage of cold fronts appear to be dominant regional dispersal agents. ?? 1978.

Model-Data Fusion and Adaptive Sensing for Large Scale Systems: Applications to Atmospheric Release Incidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madankan, Reza

All across the world, toxic material clouds are emitted from sources, such as industrial plants, vehicular traffic, and volcanic eruptions can contain chemical, biological or radiological material. With the growing fear of natural, accidental or deliberate release of toxic agents, there is tremendous interest in precise source characterization and generating accurate hazard maps of toxic material dispersion for appropriate disaster management. In this dissertation, an end-to-end framework has been developed for probabilistic source characterization and forecasting of atmospheric release incidents. The proposed methodology consists of three major components which are combined together to perform the task of source characterization and forecasting. These components include Uncertainty Quantification, Optimal Information Collection, and Data Assimilation. Precise approximation of prior statistics is crucial to ensure performance of the source characterization process. In this work, an efficient quadrature based method has been utilized for quantification of uncertainty in plume dispersion models that are subject to uncertain source parameters. In addition, a fast and accurate approach is utilized for the approximation of probabilistic hazard maps, based on combination of polynomial chaos theory and the method of quadrature points. Besides precise quantification of uncertainty, having useful measurement data is also highly important to warranty accurate source parameter estimation. The performance of source characterization is highly affected by applied sensor orientation for data observation. Hence, a general framework has been developed for the optimal allocation of data observation sensors, to improve performance of the source characterization process. The key goal of this framework is to optimally locate a set of mobile sensors such that measurement of textit{better} data is guaranteed. This is achieved by maximizing the mutual information between model predictions and observed data, given a set of kinetic constraints on mobile sensors. Dynamic Programming method has been utilized to solve the resulting optimal control problem. To complete the loop of source characterization process, two different estimation techniques, minimum variance estimation framework and Bayesian Inference method has been developed to fuse model forecast with measurement data. Incomplete information regarding the distribution of associated noise signal in measurement data, is another major challenge in the source characterization of plume dispersion incidents. This frequently happens in data assimilation of atmospheric data by using the satellite imagery. This occurs due to the fact that satellite imagery data can be polluted with noise, depending on weather conditions, clouds, humidity, etc. Unfortunately, there is no accurate procedure to quantify the error in recorded satellite data. Hence, using classical data assimilation methods in this situation is not straight forward. In this dissertation, the basic idea of a novel approach has been proposed to tackle these types of real world problems with more accuracy and robustness. A simple example demonstrating the real-world scenario is presented to validate the developed methodology.

GENETIC STRUCTURE OF TRIATOMA INFESTANS POPULATIONS IN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, NORTHERN ARGENTINA

PubMed Central

Marcet, PL; Mora, MS; Cutrera, AP; Jones, L; Gürtler, RE; Kitron, U; Dotson, EM

2008-01-01

To gain an understanding of the genetic structure and dispersal dynamics of T. infestans populations, we analyzed the multilocus genotype of 10 microsatellite loci for 352 T. infestans collected in 21 houses of 11 rural communities in October 2002. Genetic structure was analyzed at the community and house compound levels. Analysis revealed that vector control actions affected the genetic structure of T. infestans populations. Bug populations from communities under sustained vector control (core area) were highly structured and genetic differentiation between neighboring house compounds was significant. In contrast, bug populations from communities with sporadic vector control actions were more homogeneous and lacked defined genetic clusters. Genetic differentiation between population pairs did not fit a model of isolation by distance at the microgeographical level. Evidence consistent with flight or walking bug dispersal was detected within and among communities, dispersal was more female-biased in the core area and results suggested that houses received immigrants from more than one source. Putative sources and mechanisms of re-infestation are described. These data may be use to design improved vector control strategies PMID:18773972

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sondrup, Andrus Jeffrey

The Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) is applying for a synthetic minor, Sitewide, air quality permit to construct (PTC) with a facility emission cap (FEC) component from the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) for Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to limit its potential to emit to less than major facility limits for criteria air pollutants (CAPs) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) regulated under the Clean Air Act. This document is supplied as an appendix to the application, Idaho National Laboratory Application for a Synthetic Minor Sitewide Air Quality Permit to Construct with a Facility Emissions Cap Component, hereaftermore » referred to as “permit application” (DOE-ID 2015). Air dispersion modeling was performed as part of the permit application process to demonstrate pollutant emissions from the INL will not cause a violation of any ambient air quality standards. This report documents the modeling methodology and results for the air dispersion impact analysis. All CAPs regulated under Section 109 of the Clean Air Act were modeled with the exception of lead (Pb) and ozone, which are not required to be modeled by DEQ. Modeling was not performed for toxic air pollutants (TAPs) as uncontrolled emissions did not exceed screening emission levels for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic TAPs. Modeling for CAPs was performed with the EPA approved AERMOD dispersion modeling system (Version 14134) (EPA 2004a) and five years (2000-2004) of meteorological data. The meteorological data set was produced with the companion AERMET model (Version 14134) (EPA 2004b) using surface data from the Idaho Falls airport, and upper-air data from Boise International Airport supplied by DEQ. Onsite meteorological data from the Grid 3 Mesonet tower located near the center of the INL (north of INTEC) and supplied by the local National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) office was used for surface wind directions and wind speeds. Surface data (i.e., land use data that defines roughness, albedo, Bowen ratio, and other parameters) were processed using the AERSURFACE utility (Version 13016) (EPA 2013). Emission sources were modeled as point sources using actual stack locations and dimensions. Emissions, flow rates and exit temperatures were based on the design operating capacity of each source. All structures close enough to produce an area of wake effect were included for all sources. For multi-tiered structures, the heights of the tiers were included or the entire building height was assumed to be equal to the height of the tallest tier. Concentrations were calculated at 1,352 receptor locations provided by DEQ. All receptors were considered for each pollutant and averaging period. Maximum modeled CAP concentrations summed with average background concentration values were presented and compared to National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The background concentration values used were obtained using the Washington State University’s Laboratory for Atmospheric Research North West Airquest web-based retrieval tool (http://lar.wsu.edu/nw airquest/lookup.html). The air dispersion modeling results show the maximum impacts for CAPs are less than applicable standards and demonstrate the INL will not cause a violation of any ambient air quality standards.« less

A cost-effective method for simulating city-wide air flow and pollutant dispersion at building resolving scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchet, Antoine; Zink, Katrin; Muller, Clive; Oettl, Dietmar; Brunner, Juerg; Emmenegger, Lukas; Brunner, Dominik

2017-06-01

A cost-effective method is presented allowing to simulate the air flow and pollutant dispersion in a whole city over multiple years at the building-resolving scale with hourly time resolution. This combination of high resolution and long time span is critically needed for epidemiological studies and for air pollution control, but still poses a great challenge for current state-of-the-art modelling techniques. The presented method relies on the pre-computation of a discrete set of possible weather situations and corresponding steady-state flow and dispersion patterns. The most suitable situation for any given hour is then selected by matching the simulated wind patterns to meteorological observations in and around the city. The catalogue of pre-computed situations corresponds to different large-scale forcings in terms of wind speed, wind direction and stability. A meteorological model converts these forcings into realistic mesoscale flow patterns accounting for the effects of topography and land-use contrasts in a domain covering the city and its surroundings. These mesoscale patterns serve as boundary conditions for a microscale urban flow model which finally drives a Lagrangian air pollutant dispersion model. The method is demonstrated with the modelling system GRAMM/GRAL v14.8 for two Swiss cities in complex terrain, Zurich and Lausanne. The mesoscale flow patterns in the two regions of interest, dominated by land-lake breezes and driven by the partly steep topography, are well reproduced in the simulations matched to in situ observations. In particular, the combination of wind measurements at different locations around the city appeared to be a robust approach to deduce the stability class for the boundary layer within the city. This information is critical for predicting the temporal variability of pollution concentration within the city, regarding their relationship with the intensity of horizontal and vertical dispersion and of turbulence. In the vicinity of sources, the 5 m resolution chosen in our set-up is not always sufficient to reproduce the very steep concentration gradients, pointing at additional cost optimisations in the method required to make higher resolutions affordable. Nevertheless, the catalogue-based methodology allows reproducing concentration variability very consistently further away from emission sources, hence for most parts of the city.

Urban air quality estimation study, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diamante, J. M.; Englar, T. S., Jr.; Jazwinski, A. H.

1976-01-01

Possibilities are explored for applying estimation theory to the analysis, interpretation, and use of air quality measurements in conjunction with simulation models to provide a cost effective method of obtaining reliable air quality estimates for wide urban areas. The physical phenomenology of real atmospheric plumes from elevated localized sources is discussed. A fluctuating plume dispersion model is derived. Individual plume parameter formulations are developed along with associated a priori information. Individual measurement models are developed.

Plume Dispersion over Idealized Urban-liked Roughness with Height Variation: an LES Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Colman Ching Chi; Liu, Chun-Ho

2013-04-01

Human activities (e.g. vehicular emission) are the primary pollutant sources affecting the health and living quality of stakeholders in modern compact cities. Gaussian plume dispersion model is commonly used for pollutant distribution estimate that works well over rural areas with flat terrain. However, its major parameters, dispersion coefficients, exclude the effect of surface roughness that unavoidably prone to error handling the pollutant transport in the urban boundary layer (UBL) over building roughness. Our recent large-eddy simulation (LES) has shown that urban surfaces affect significantly the pollutant dispersion over idealized, identical two-dimensional (2D) street canyons of uniform height. As an extension to our on-going effort, this study is conceived to investigate how rough urban surfaces, which are constructed by 2D street canyons of non-uniform height, modify the UBL pollutant dispersion . A series of LESs with idealized roughness elements of non-uniform heights were performed in neutral stratification. Building models with two different heights were placed alternatively in the computational domain to construct 2D street canyons in cross flows. The plume dispersion from a ground-level passive pollutant source over more realistic urban areas was then examined. Along with the existing building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratio (AR), a new parameter, building-height variability (BHV), is used to measure the building height unevenness. Four ARs (1, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.125) and three BHVs (20%, 40% and 60%) were considered in this study. Preliminary results show that BHV greatly increases the aerodynamic roughness of the hypothetical urban surfaces for narrow street canyons. Analogous to our previous findings, the air exchange rate (ACH) of street canyons increases with increasing friction factor, implying that street-level ventilation could be improved by increasing building roughness via BHV. In addition, the parameters used in dispersion coefficient estimates are related to the friction factor in the way similar to that of uniform street canyons, i.e. they are linear functions of friction factor when the roughness is small and become insensitive to friction factor thereafter over very rough surfaces. It is thus suggested that aerodynamic resistance is the key factor affecting the air quality in urban areas. Moreover, the friction factor could be used to parameterize the dispersion coefficients over different roughness elements.

Toward an Integrated Solution to Mitigate the Impact of Volcanic Ash to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, John J.; Dezitter, Fabien; Fairlie, T. Duncan; Krotkov, Nickolay; Lekki, John; Lindsay, Francis; Pavolonis, Mike; Pieri, David; Prata, Fred; Vernier, Jean-Paul

2015-01-01

The science community is making a concerted effort to improve the reliability of dispersion models for the forecasting of volcanic ash plumes. Toward this end, it has been observed that the assimilation of diverse, accurate and frequent surface, airborne and satellite observations of the source and distal ash plumes may hold the key. Various international research organizations and operational agencies make these observations using a variety of active and passive remote sensing systems and use them to initialize atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models. These observation systems range from surface LIDAR and ceilometers, to airborne radiometers and nephelometers, to satellite radiometers, multi-spectral imagers, LIDAR and UV-photometers. None of these systems alone is a panacea, however, their synergistic application holds great promise toward solving this complex problem. Additionally, the aeronautical and science communities are working to better understand the quantitative thresholds and tolerances of aviation systems to volcanic ash to better inform scientists of the accuracy requirements for dispersion model forecasts. A number of the most recent and promising efforts in all of these area are discussed in this presentation.

Preliminary investigation of uncombusted auto fuel vapor dispersion within a residential garage microenvironment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lansari, A.; Streicher, J.J.; Huber, A.H.

1993-01-01

Evaporative emissions from vehicles in an attached garage may represent a significant source of indoor pollution and human exposure. A pilot field study was undertaken to investigate potential in-house dispersion of evaporative emissions of uncombusted fuels from a vehicle parked inside an attached garage. In a set of experiments using sulfur hexafluoride tracer gas, the multizonal mass balance model, CONTAM88, was used to predict interzonal air flow rates and SF6 concentration distributions within the garage and house. Several experiments were included to evaluate the effect of meteorology and mechanical mixing mechanisms on the dispersion of automobile fuel vapor. Measurements indicatedmore » that approximately three percent of the garage maximum concentration was measured in a room adjacent to the garage. The model successfully predicted garage concentrations under well mixed conditions, but underpredicted the measured concentrations within various rooms of the house, in which mixing was incomplete. Multizonal mass balance models such as CONTAM88 may be useful in approximating contaminant concentrations at various locations within the house.« less

Turbulent Combustion in SDF Explosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhl, A L; Bell, J B; Beckner, V E

2009-11-12

A heterogeneous continuum model is proposed to describe the dispersion and combustion of an aluminum particle cloud in an explosion. It combines the gas-dynamic conservation laws for the gas phase with a continuum model for the dispersed phase, as formulated by Nigmatulin. Inter-phase mass, momentum and energy exchange are prescribed by phenomenological models. It incorporates a combustion model based on the mass conservation laws for fuel, air and products; source/sink terms are treated in the fast-chemistry limit appropriate for such gasdynamic fields, along with a model for mass transfer from the particle phase to the gas. The model takes intomore » account both the afterburning of the detonation products of the C-4 booster with air, and the combustion of the Al particles with air. The model equations were integrated by high-order Godunov schemes for both the gas and particle phases. Numerical simulations of the explosion fields from 1.5-g Shock-Dispersed-Fuel (SDF) charge in a 6.6 liter calorimeter were used to validate the combustion model. Then the model was applied to 10-kg Al-SDF explosions in a an unconfined height-of-burst explosion. Computed pressure histories are compared with measured waveforms. Differences are caused by physical-chemical kinetic effects of particle combustion which induce ignition delays in the initial reactive blast wave and quenching of reactions at late times. Current simulations give initial insights into such modeling issues.« less

Modelling night-time ecosystem respiration by a constrained source optimization method

Treesearch

Chun-Tai Lai; Gabriel Katul; John Butnor; David Ellsworth; Ram Oren

2002-01-01

One of the main challenges to quantifying ecosystem carbon budgets is properly quantifying the magnitude of night-time ecosystem respiration. Inverse Lagrangian dispersion analysis provides a promising approach to addressing such a problem when measured mean CO2 concentration profiles and nocturnal velocity statistics are available. An inverse...

SO 2 concentrations near tall stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lott, Robert A.

A study was conducted to investigate plume dispersion during convective (stability class A) conditions. The purpose of the study was to determine if high concentrations occur near sources (1.2-1.8 km) with tall stacks and to identify the plume behavior during these episodes. The study was conducted at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Paradise Steam Plant. The highest concentrations were measured near the source during wind shear capping conditions, which normally correspond to stability class B or C conditions. The measured data are compared with results obtained using a convective boundary layer model and a steady-state Gaussian model.

Ice shelf structure from dispersion curve analysis of passive-source seismic data, Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez, A.; Bromirski, P. D.; Gerstoft, P.; Stephen, R. A.; Anthony, R. E.; Aster, R. C.; Cai, C.; Nyblade, A.; Wiens, D.

2015-12-01

An L-shaped array of three-component short period seismic stations was deployed at the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica approximately 100 km south of the ice edge, near 180° longitude, from November 18 through 28, 2014. Polarization analysis of data from these stations clearly shows propagating waves from below the ice shelf for frequencies below 2 Hz. Energy above 2 Hz is dominated by Rayleigh and Love waves propagating from the north. Frequency-slowness plots were calculated using beamforming. Resulting Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion curves were inverted for the shear wave velocity profile, from which we derive a density profile. The derived shear wave velocity profiles differ within the firn for the inversions using Rayleigh and Love wave dispersion curves. This difference is attributed to an effective anisotropy due to fine layering. The layered structure of firn, ice, water, and ocean floor results in a characteristic dispersion curve pattern below 7 Hz. We investigate the observed structures in more detail by forward modeling of Rayleigh wave dispersion curves for representative firn, ice, water, sediment structures. Rayleigh waves are observed when wavelengths are long enough to span the distance from the ice shelf surface to the seafloor. Our results show that the analysis of high frequency Rayleigh waves on an ice shelf has the ability to resolve ice shelf thickness, water column thickness, and the physical properties of the underlying ocean floor using passive-source seismic data.

flexCloud: Deployment of the FLEXPART Atmospheric Transport Model as a Cloud SaaS Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, Don; Arnold, Dèlia

2014-05-01

FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) is a Lagrangian transport and dispersion model used by a growing international community. We have used it to simulate and forecast the atmospheric transport of wildfire smoke, volcanic ash and radionuclides. Additionally, FLEXPART may be run in backwards mode to provide information for the determination of emission sources such as nuclear emissions and greenhouse gases. This open source software is distributed in source code form, and has several compiler and library dependencies that users need to address. Although well-documented, getting it compiled, set up, running, and post-processed is often tedious, making it difficult for the inexperienced user. Our interest is in moving scientific modeling and simulation activities from site-specific clusters and supercomputers to a cloud model as a service paradigm. Choosing FLEXPART for our prototyping, our vision is to construct customised IaaS images containing fully-compiled and configured FLEXPART codes, including pre-processing, execution and postprocessing components. In addition, with the inclusion of a small web server in the image, we introduce a web-accessible graphical user interface that drives the system. A further initiative being pursued is the deployment of multiple, simultaneous FLEXPART ensembles in the cloud. A single front-end web interface is used to define the ensemble members, and separate cloud instances are launched, on-demand, to run the individual models and to conglomerate the outputs into a unified display. The outcome of this work is a Software as a Service (Saas) deployment whereby the details of the underlying modeling systems are hidden, allowing modelers to perform their science activities without the burden of considering implementation details.

Satellite measurements of SO2 emission and dispersion during the 2008-2009 eruption of Halema‘uma‘u, Kilauea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carn, S. A.; Sutton, A. J.; Elias, T.; Patrick, M. R.; Owen, R. C.; Wu, S.

2009-12-01

Satellite remote sensing is providing unique constraints on sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions associated with the ongoing eruption of Halema‘uma‘u (HMM), and daily observations of volcanic plume dispersion. We use synoptic SO2 measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite to chart the fluctuation in SO2 emissions and plume dispersion. Prior to the onset of degassing from HMM, OMI detected SO2 emissions from the east rift Pu‘u ‘O‘o vent; the average daily SO2 burden measured between Sept 6, 2004 and Feb 29, 2008 was 0.7 kilotons (kt) ±1 (1σ). The additional SO2 production from HMM caused total SO2 burdens in the composite Kilauea plume to increase notably in March-April 2008, and a daily average SO2 burden of ~4 kt ±4 (1σ) was measured by OMI between Mar 1, 2008 and Jul 31, 2009 (all burdens are preliminary and assume a SO2 plume altitude of 3 km). A total of ~2 Megatons of SO2 was measured by OMI in the Kilauea emissions between March 2008 and July 2009. The increased SO2 emissions provide an excellent opportunity to compare ground-based ultraviolet (UV) spectrometer and space-based UV OMI measurements of SO2 output, and test algorithms for derivation of emission rates from satellite data. Kilauea data analyzed to date show that trends in ground-based SO2 emission rates and OMI SO2 burdens are in qualitative agreement but differ in magnitude. Plume altitude is a critical factor in satellite SO2 retrievals, and interpretation of the Kilauea observations is complicated by the presence of two SO2 plumes (from HMM and Pu‘u ‘O‘o) within the OMI field-of-view. In order to constrain plume heights and SO2 lifetimes, we use plume simulations generated by the FLEXPART particle dispersion model and compare the model output with OMI SO2 observations. We validate the model-generated plume altitudes using vertical aerosol profiles derived from the CALIPSO space-borne lidar instrument. Gaussian plume models parameterized using visual observations of the HMM plume injection height further constrain near-source plume dispersion and downwind evolution. Refinement of SO2 altitude provides improved constraints on SO2 burdens in observed plumes. A more rigorous approach to deriving source emission strengths from satellite observations is an inverse modeling scheme incorporating measurements and models. Using Kilauea as a case study, we plan to develop such a scheme using OMI data, FLEXPART simulations and atmospheric chemistry and transport modeling using the GEOS-Chem model. Modeling of plume dispersion and chemistry will also provide estimates of SO2 and acid aerosol concentrations for potential use in air quality and health hazard assessments in Hawaii.

Coupling of WRF and Building-resolved CFD Simulations for Greenhouse Gas Transport and Dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, K.; Hu, H.; McDermott, R.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Davis, K. J.; Whetstone, J. R.; Lauvaux, T.

2014-12-01

The Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) aims to use a top-down inversion methodology to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions over an urban domain with high spatial and temporal resolution. Atmospheric transport of tracer gases from an emission source to a tower mounted receptor are usually conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF is used extensively in the atmospheric community to simulate mesoscale atmospheric transport. For such simulations, WRF employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics that are generated by the flow around buildings and communities that are part of a large city. Since the model domain includes the city of Indianapolis, much of the flow of interest is over an urban topography. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model to perform large eddy simulations of flow around buildings, but it has not been nested within a larger-scale atmospheric transport model such as WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex urban topography on near-field dispersion and mixing that cannot be simulated with a mesoscale atmospheric model, and which may be important to determining urban GHG emissions using atmospheric measurements. A methodology has been developed to run FDS as a sub-grid scale model within a WRF simulation. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards the one computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. Using the coupled WRF / FDS model, NIST will investigate the effects of the urban canopy at horizontal resolutions of 2-10 m. The coupled WRF-FDS simulations will be used to calculate the dispersion of tracer gases in an urban domain and to evaluate the upwind areas that contribute to tower observations, referred to in the inversion community as influence functions. Predicted mixing ratios will be compared with tower measurements and WRF simulations, and FDS influence functions will be compared with those generated from WRF and the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model. Results of this study will provide guidance regarding the importance of explicit simulations of urban atmospheric turbulence in obtaining accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions.

Seed source, seed traits, and frugivore habits: Implications for dispersal quality of two sympatric primates.

PubMed

Benítez-Malvido, Julieta; González-Di Pierro, Ana Ma; Lombera, Rafael; Guillén, Susana; Estrada, Alejandro

2014-06-01

• Premise of the study: Frugivore selection of fruits and treatment of seeds together with seed deposition site are crucial for the population dynamics of vertebrate-dispersed plants. However, frugivore species may influence dispersal quality differently even when feeding on the same fruit species and, while animals disperse some seeds, others simply fall beneath the parent plant.• Methods: In southern Mexico, we investigated to see if within-species seed traits (i.e., length, width, weight, and volume) and germination success differed according to seed source. For five tropical tree species we obtained ingested seeds from two sources, howler monkey (Alouatta pigra) and spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi) feces; and noningested seeds from two sources, the ground and tree crowns (with predispersed seeds used as control).• Key results: A principal components' analysis showed that traits of seeds ingested by howler monkeys differed from other sources while seeds ingested by spider monkeys were similar to noningested seeds. Howlers consumed on average the larger seeds in Ampelocera hottlei, Brosimum lactescens, and Dialium guianense. Both primate species consumed the smaller seeds in Spondias mombin, while no seed trait differences among seed sources were found in Spondias radlkoferi. For all five tree species, germination rate was greatest for seeds ingested by howler monkeys.• Conclusions: For the studied plant species, seed ingestion by howler monkeys confers higher dispersal quality than ingestion by spider monkeys or nondispersal. Dispersal services of both primate species, however, are not redundant and may contribute to germination heterogeneity within plant populations in tropical forests. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2015-04-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. Observations and dispersion modelling of the released radionuclides help to assess the regional impact of such nuclear accidents. Modelling the increase of regional radionuclide activity concentrations, which results from nuclear accidents, underlies a multiplicity of uncertainties. One of the most significant uncertainties is the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source term may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on estimates given by the operators of the nuclear power plant. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site can be estimated using inverse modelling (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). The accuracy of the method depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the used observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates, on the other hand, are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution and provide therefore a wider basis for inverse modelling (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach, which combines an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The inversion method uses a Bayesian formulation considering uncertainties for the a priori source term and the observations (Eckhardt et al., 2008, Stohl et al., 2012). The a priori information on the source term is a first guess. The gamma dose rate observations are used to improve the first guess and to retrieve a reliable source term. The details of this method will be presented at the conference. This work is funded by the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz BfS, Forschungsvorhaben 3612S60026. References Davoine, X. and Bocquet, M., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007. Devell, L., et al., OCDE/GD(96)12, 1995. Eckhardt, S., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 3881-3897, 2008. Saunier, O., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403-11421, 2013. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245-4264, 1998. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461-2474, 2005. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313-2343, 2012.

Large-Scale Habitat Corridors for Biodiversity Conservation: A Forest Corridor in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Ramiadantsoa, Tanjona; Ovaskainen, Otso; Rybicki, Joel; Hanski, Ilkka

2015-01-01

In biodiversity conservation, habitat corridors are assumed to increase landscape-level connectivity and to enhance the viability of otherwise isolated populations. While the role of corridors is supported by empirical evidence, studies have typically been conducted at small spatial scales. Here, we assess the quality and the functionality of a large 95-km long forest corridor connecting two large national parks (416 and 311 km2) in the southeastern escarpment of Madagascar. We analyze the occurrence of 300 species in 5 taxonomic groups in the parks and in the corridor, and combine high-resolution forest cover data with a simulation model to examine various scenarios of corridor destruction. At present, the corridor contains essentially the same communities as the national parks, reflecting its breadth which on average matches that of the parks. In the simulation model, we consider three types of dispersers: passive dispersers, which settle randomly around the source population; active dispersers, which settle only in favorable habitat; and gap-avoiding active dispersers, which avoid dispersing across non-habitat. Our results suggest that long-distance passive dispersers are most sensitive to ongoing degradation of the corridor, because increasing numbers of propagules are lost outside the forest habitat. For a wide range of dispersal parameters, the national parks are large enough to sustain stable populations until the corridor becomes severely broken, which will happen around 2065 if the current rate of forest loss continues. A significant decrease in gene flow along the corridor is expected after 2040, and this will exacerbate the adverse consequences of isolation. Our results demonstrate that simulation studies assessing the role of habitat corridors should pay close attention to the mode of dispersal and the effects of regional stochasticity. PMID:26200351

Large-Scale Habitat Corridors for Biodiversity Conservation: A Forest Corridor in Madagascar.

PubMed

Ramiadantsoa, Tanjona; Ovaskainen, Otso; Rybicki, Joel; Hanski, Ilkka

2015-01-01

In biodiversity conservation, habitat corridors are assumed to increase landscape-level connectivity and to enhance the viability of otherwise isolated populations. While the role of corridors is supported by empirical evidence, studies have typically been conducted at small spatial scales. Here, we assess the quality and the functionality of a large 95-km long forest corridor connecting two large national parks (416 and 311 km2) in the southeastern escarpment of Madagascar. We analyze the occurrence of 300 species in 5 taxonomic groups in the parks and in the corridor, and combine high-resolution forest cover data with a simulation model to examine various scenarios of corridor destruction. At present, the corridor contains essentially the same communities as the national parks, reflecting its breadth which on average matches that of the parks. In the simulation model, we consider three types of dispersers: passive dispersers, which settle randomly around the source population; active dispersers, which settle only in favorable habitat; and gap-avoiding active dispersers, which avoid dispersing across non-habitat. Our results suggest that long-distance passive dispersers are most sensitive to ongoing degradation of the corridor, because increasing numbers of propagules are lost outside the forest habitat. For a wide range of dispersal parameters, the national parks are large enough to sustain stable populations until the corridor becomes severely broken, which will happen around 2065 if the current rate of forest loss continues. A significant decrease in gene flow along the corridor is expected after 2040, and this will exacerbate the adverse consequences of isolation. Our results demonstrate that simulation studies assessing the role of habitat corridors should pay close attention to the mode of dispersal and the effects of regional stochasticity.

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

A compact model for electroosmotic flows in microfluidic devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, R.; Aluru, N. R.

2002-09-01

A compact model to compute flow rate and pressure in microfluidic devices is presented. The microfluidic flow can be driven by either an applied electric field or a combined electric field and pressure gradient. A step change in the ζ-potential on a channel wall is treated by a pressure source in the compact model. The pressure source is obtained from the pressure Poisson equation and conservation of mass principle. In the proposed compact model, the complex fluidic network is simplified by an electrical circuit. The compact model can predict the flow rate, pressure distribution and other basic characteristics in microfluidic channels quickly with good accuracy when compared to detailed numerical simulation. Using the compact model, fluidic mixing and dispersion control are studied in a complex microfluidic network.

OCT imaging with temporal dispersion induced intense and short coherence laser source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manna, Suman K.; le Gall, Stephen; Li, Guoqiang

2016-10-01

Lower coherence length and higher intensity are two indispensable requirements on the light source for high resolution and large penetration depth OCT imaging. While tremendous interest is being paid on engineering various laser sources to enlarge their bandwidth and hence lowering the coherence length, here we demonstrate another approach by employing strong temporal dispersion onto the existing laser source. Cholesteric liquid crystal (CLC) cells with suitable dispersive slope at the edge of 1-D organic photonic band gap have been designed to provide maximum reduction in coherence volume while maintaining the intensity higher than 50%. As an example, the coherence length of a multimode He-Ne laser is reduced by more than 730 times.

Dispersal of remnant endangered trees in a fragmented and disturbed forest by frugivorous birds.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Bai, Bing; Li, Xin-Hai; An, Shu-Qing; Lu, Chang-Hu

2017-07-01

Most endangered plant species in a fragmented forest behave as a unique source population, with a high dependence on frugivorous birds for recruitment and persistence. In this study, we combined field data of dispersal behavior of birds and GIS information of patch attributes to estimate how frugivorous birds could affect the effective dispersal pattern of Chinese yew (Taxus chinensis) in a fragmented and disturbed forest. Nine bird species were observed to visit T. chinensis trees, with Urocissa erythrorhyncha, Zoothera dauma and Picus canus being the most common dispersers. After foraging, six disperser species exhibited different perching patterns. Three specialist species, P. canus, Turdus hortulorum, and Z. dauma stayed in the source patch, while three generalist species, U. erythrorhyncha, Hypsipetes mcclellandii, and H. castanonotus, could perch in bamboo patches and varied in movement ability due to body size. As a consequence of perching, dispersers significantly contributed to the seed bank, but indirectly affected seedling recruitment. Moreover, the recruitment of T. chinensis was also affected by patch attributes in a fragmented forest (distances to source patch, patch type, size). Our results highlighted the ability of unique source population regeneration of T. chinensis in a fragmented forest, with high dependence on both frugivorous birds and patch attributes, which should be considered in future planning for forest management and conservation.

Joint body- and surface-wave tomography of Yucca Flat, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toney, L. D.; Abbott, R. E.; Preston, L. A.

2017-12-01

In 2015, Sandia National Laboratories conducted an active-source seismic survey of Yucca Flat (YF), Nevada, on the Nevada National Security Site. YF hosted over 650 underground nuclear tests (UGTs) between 1957 and 1992. Data from this survey will help characterize the geologic structure and bulk properties of the region, informing models for the next phase of the Source Physics Experiments. The survey source was a 13,000-kg weight drop at 91 locations along a 19-km N-S transect and 56 locations along an 11-km E-W transect. Over 350 three-component 2-Hz geophones were variably spaced at 10, 20, and 100 m along each line; we used a roll-along survey geometry to ensure 10-m receiver spacing within 2 km of the source. We applied the multiple filter technique to the dataset using a comb of 30 narrow bandpass filters with center frequencies ranging from 1 to 50 Hz. After manually windowing out the fundamental Rayleigh-wave arrival, we picked group-velocity dispersion curves for 50,000 source-receiver pairs. We performed a joint inversion of group-velocity dispersion and existing body-wave travel-time picks for the shear- and compressional-wave velocity structure of YF. Our final models reveal significant Vp / Vs anomalies in the vicinities of legacy UGT sites. The velocity structures corroborate existing seismo-stratigraphic models of YF derived from borehole and gravity data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fedy, Brad C.

2016-01-01

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.

Tall-tower observations of pollution from near-field sources in central Texas during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Kort, E.; Hirsch, A.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Nehrkorn, T.; Michalak, A. M.; Petron, G.; Frost, G. J.; Gurney, K. R.; Stohl, A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Angevine, W. M.; White, A. B.; Oltmans, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Tans, P. P.

2008-12-01

The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory has been measuring CO2, CO and basic meteorology from a television transmitter tower outside of Waco, TX since 2001. Sample intakes are located at 30, 122 and 457 meters above ground level. From July through November 2006, O3 measurements were added at 9 and 457 magl to support the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS 2006). There are several large point sources and metropolitan areas in the vicinity of the tower with distinct chemical signatures. Here, we evaluate the extent to which the Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model reproduces pollution events that were observed at the tower during summer and fall 2006. For this study, STILT is driven by customized output from the WRF model v2.2, which was run with a 2km nested grid surrounding the tower embedded in a 10km nest that covers most of the southern and eastern US and a 40km nest that includes all of North America. Inaccurate representation of atmospheric transport is a major source of error in inverse estimates of fluxes of CO2 and other gases, and we selected this period for in depth analysis in part because a dense network of radar profilers was deployed for TexAQS 2006. The radar profilers report wind and boundary layer height, which can be used to evaluate the fidelity of the simulated transport. STILT is a particle dispersion model that can be run either forward or backward in time, which allows us to compare the agreement between forward runs from individual pollution sources and backward runs from the tower. We will also quantitatively compare the STILT-WRF results with similar output from the FLEXPART particle dispersion model driven by high-resolution ECMWF meteorological fields. We will use several different emissions inventories to evaluate model-to-model differences and differences between modeled and observed pollution influences.

Wind tunnel investigation on the retention of air pollutants in three-dimensional recirculation zones in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Marcos Sebastião de Paula; Isnard, André Augusto; Pinto, José Maurício do Carmo

The article discusses an experimental investigation of turbulent dispersion processes in a typical three-dimensional urban geometry, in reduced scale, in neutrally stable conditions. Wind tunnel experiments were carried out for characterizing the flow and the dispersion of a pollutant around a scaled model (1:400) of a group of eight 10-floor buildings surrounding a square. The situation corresponded to the dispersion of fine inertialess particles released from a line source positioned upstream of the urban geometry. After the sudden interruption of the source generation, the particles persisted in the recirculation cavity between the buildings, with the concentration decaying exponentially with time. This is in accordance with previous works on the dispersion process around bluff bodies of different shapes [e.g., Humphries and Vincent, 1976. An experimental investigation of the detention of airborne smoke in the wake bubble behind a disk. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 73, 453-464; Vincent, 1977. Model experiments on the nature of air pollution transport near buildings. Atmospheric Environment 11, 765-774; Fackrell, 1984. Parameters characterizing dispersion in the near wake of buildings. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics 16, 97-118]. The main parameter in the investigation was the characteristic time constant for the concentration decay. The measurements of the variation in the concentration of the fine particles were performed by means of a photo-detection technique based on the attenuation of light. The velocity fields were evaluated with the particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique. The dimensionless residence time H for the particles ( H= τU/ L, where τ is the time constant for the concentration decay, U the free-stream velocity, and L is a characteristic dimension for the urban geometry, as defined by Humphries and Vincent [1976. An experimental investigation of the detention of airborne smoke in the wake bubble behind a disk. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 73, 453-464] was determined for various locations in the scaled model, in the range of Reynolds numbers ( Re) between 8000 and 64,000. H was found to be 6.5±1.0.

Biophysical and Population Genetic Models Predict the Presence of "Phantom" Stepping Stones Connecting Mid-Atlantic Ridge Vent Ecosystems.

PubMed

Breusing, Corinna; Biastoch, Arne; Drews, Annika; Metaxas, Anna; Jollivet, Didier; Vrijenhoek, Robert C; Bayer, Till; Melzner, Frank; Sayavedra, Lizbeth; Petersen, Jillian M; Dubilier, Nicole; Schilhabel, Markus B; Rosenstiel, Philip; Reusch, Thorsten B H

2016-09-12

Deep-sea hydrothermal vents are patchily distributed ecosystems inhabited by specialized animal populations that are textbook meta-populations. Many vent-associated species have free-swimming, dispersive larvae that can establish connections between remote populations. However, connectivity patterns among hydrothermal vents are still poorly understood because the deep sea is undersampled, the molecular tools used to date are of limited resolution, and larval dispersal is difficult to measure directly. A better knowledge of connectivity is urgently needed to develop sound environmental management plans for deep-sea mining. Here, we investigated larval dispersal and contemporary connectivity of ecologically important vent mussels (Bathymodiolus spp.) from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge by using high-resolution ocean modeling and population genetic methods. Even when assuming a long pelagic larval duration, our physical model of larval drift suggested that arrival at localities more than 150 km from the source site is unlikely and that dispersal between populations requires intermediate habitats ("phantom" stepping stones). Dispersal patterns showed strong spatiotemporal variability, making predictions of population connectivity challenging. The assumption that mussel populations are only connected via additional stepping stones was supported by contemporary migration rates based on neutral genetic markers. Analyses of population structure confirmed the presence of two southern and two hybridizing northern mussel lineages that exhibited a substantial, though incomplete, genetic differentiation. Our study provides insights into how vent animals can disperse between widely separated vent habitats and shows that recolonization of perturbed vent sites will be subject to chance events, unless connectivity is explicitly considered in the selection of conservation areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, Warren G.; Basaran, Osman A.; Harris, Michael T.

1998-01-01

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two concentric electrodes, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, Warren G.; Basaran, Osman A.; Harris, Michael T.

1995-01-01

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two concentric electrodes, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode.

Simple equations guide high-frequency surface-wave investigation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Xu, Y.; Chen, C.; Kaufmann, R.D.; Luo, Y.

2006-01-01

We discuss five useful equations related to high-frequency surface-wave techniques and their implications in practice. These equations are theoretical results from published literature regarding source selection, data-acquisition parameters, resolution of a dispersion curve image in the frequency-velocity domain, and the cut-off frequency of high modes. The first equation suggests Rayleigh waves appear in the shortest offset when a source is located on the ground surface, which supports our observations that surface impact sources are the best source for surface-wave techniques. The second and third equations, based on the layered earth model, reveal a relationship between the optimal nearest offset in Rayleigh-wave data acquisition and seismic setting - the observed maximum and minimum phase velocities, and the maximum wavelength. Comparison among data acquired with different offsets at one test site confirms the better data were acquired with the suggested optimal nearest offset. The fourth equation illustrates that resolution of a dispersion curve image at a given frequency is directly proportional to the product of a length of a geophone array and the frequency. We used real-world data to verify the fourth equation. The last equation shows that the cut-off frequency of high modes of Love waves for a two-layer model is determined by shear-wave velocities and the thickness of the top layer. We applied this equation to Rayleigh waves and multi-layer models with the average velocity and obtained encouraging results. This equation not only endows with a criterion to distinguish high modes from numerical artifacts but also provides a straightforward means to resolve the depth to the half space of a layered earth model. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybrid Modeling Approach to Estimate Exposures of Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) for the National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA).

PubMed

Scheffe, Richard D; Strum, Madeleine; Phillips, Sharon B; Thurman, James; Eyth, Alison; Fudge, Steve; Morris, Mark; Palma, Ted; Cook, Richard

2016-11-15

A hybrid air quality model has been developed and applied to estimate annual concentrations of 40 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) across the continental United States (CONUS) to support the 2011 calendar year National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). By combining a chemical transport model (CTM) with a Gaussian dispersion model, both reactive and nonreactive HAPs are accommodated across local to regional spatial scales, through a multiplicative technique designed to improve mass conservation relative to previous additive methods. The broad scope of multiple pollutants capturing regional to local spatial scale patterns across a vast spatial domain is precedent setting within the air toxics community. The hybrid design exhibits improved performance relative to the stand alone CTM and dispersion model. However, model performance varies widely across pollutant categories and quantifiably definitive performance assessments are hampered by a limited observation base and challenged by the multiple physical and chemical attributes of HAPs. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are the dominant HAP concentration and cancer risk drivers, characterized by strong regional signals associated with naturally emitted carbonyl precursors enhanced in urban transport corridors with strong mobile source sector emissions. The multiple pollutant emission characteristics of combustion dominated source sectors creates largely similar concentration patterns across the majority of HAPs. However, reactive carbonyls exhibit significantly less spatial variability relative to nonreactive HAPs across the CONUS.

A Comparison of Exposure Metrics for Traffic-Related Air Pollutants: Application to Epidemiology Studies in Detroit, Michigan

PubMed Central

Batterman, Stuart; Burke, Janet; Isakov, Vlad; Lewis, Toby; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Robins, Thomas

2014-01-01

Vehicles are major sources of air pollutant emissions, and individuals living near large roads endure high exposures and health risks associated with traffic-related air pollutants. Air pollution epidemiology, health risk, environmental justice, and transportation planning studies would all benefit from an improved understanding of the key information and metrics needed to assess exposures, as well as the strengths and limitations of alternate exposure metrics. This study develops and evaluates several metrics for characterizing exposure to traffic-related air pollutants for the 218 residential locations of participants in the NEXUS epidemiology study conducted in Detroit (MI, USA). Exposure metrics included proximity to major roads, traffic volume, vehicle mix, traffic density, vehicle exhaust emissions density, and pollutant concentrations predicted by dispersion models. Results presented for each metric include comparisons of exposure distributions, spatial variability, intraclass correlation, concordance and discordance rates, and overall strengths and limitations. While showing some agreement, the simple categorical and proximity classifications (e.g., high diesel/low diesel traffic roads and distance from major roads) do not reflect the range and overlap of exposures seen in the other metrics. Information provided by the traffic density metric, defined as the number of kilometers traveled (VKT) per day within a 300 m buffer around each home, was reasonably consistent with the more sophisticated metrics. Dispersion modeling provided spatially- and temporally-resolved concentrations, along with apportionments that separated concentrations due to traffic emissions and other sources. While several of the exposure metrics showed broad agreement, including traffic density, emissions density and modeled concentrations, these alternatives still produced exposure classifications that differed for a substantial fraction of study participants, e.g., from 20% to 50% of homes, depending on the metric, would be incorrectly classified into “low”, “medium” or “high” traffic exposure classes. These and other results suggest the potential for exposure misclassification and the need for refined and validated exposure metrics. While data and computational demands for dispersion modeling of traffic emissions are non-trivial concerns, once established, dispersion modeling systems can provide exposure information for both on- and near-road environments that would benefit future traffic-related assessments. PMID:25226412

Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, P.; Frank, A.

2003-04-01

A method for the calculation of source-receptor (s-r) relationships (sensitivity of a trace substance concentration at some place and time to emission at some place and time) with Lagrangian particle models has been derived and presented previously (Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XIV, Proc. of ITM Boulder 2000). Now, the generalisation to any linear s-r relationship, including dry and wet deposition, decay etc., is presented. It was implemented in the model FLEXPART and tested extensively in idealised set-ups. These tests turned out to be very useful for finding minor model bugs and inaccuracies, and can be recommended generally for model testing. Recently, a convection scheme has been integrated in FLEXPART which was also tested. Both source and receptor can be specified in mass mixing ratio or mass units. Properly taking care of this is quite relevant for sources and receptors at different levels in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we present a test with the transport of aerosol-bound Caesium-137 from the areas contaminated by the Chernobyl disaster to Stockholm during one month.

All-fiber mid-infrared difference frequency generation source and its application to molecular dispersion spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzempek, K.; Abramski, K. M.; Nikodem, M.

2017-09-01

A widely tunable, fully monolithic, mid-infrared difference frequency generation source and its application in the dispersion-spectroscopy-based laser trace gas detection of methane and ethane, near 2938 and 2998 cm-1, is presented. Utilizing a fiber pigtailed nonlinear crystal module radically simplified the optical setup, while maintaining a superb conversion efficiency of 20% W-1. Seeded directly from two laser diodes, the source delivered ~0.5 mW of tunable radiation, which was used in a chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy setup, enabling the highly sensitive detection of hydrocarbons.

Coherent white light amplification

DOEpatents

Jovanovic, Igor; Barty, Christopher P.

2004-05-25

A system for coherent simultaneous amplification of a broad spectral range of light that includes an optical parametric amplifier and a source of a seed pulse is described. A first angular dispersive element is operatively connected to the source of a seed pulse. A first imaging telescope is operatively connected to the first angular dispersive element and operatively connected to the optical parametric amplifier. A source of a pump pulse is operatively connected to the optical parametric amplifier. A second imaging telescope is operatively connected to the optical parametric amplifier and a second angular dispersive element is operatively connected to the second imaging telescope.

A numerical study of atmospheric perturbations induced by heat from a wildland fire: sensitivity to vertical canopy structure and heat source strength

Treesearch

Michael T. Kiefer; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney; Xindi Bian

2018-01-01

An improved understanding of atmospheric perturbations within and above a forest during a wildland fire has relevance to many aspects of wildland fires including fire spread, smoke transport and dispersion, and tree mortality. In this study, the ARPS-CANOPY model, a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model with a canopy parameterization, is...

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

Ash Dispersal in Planetary Atmospheres: Continuum vs. Non-continuum Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagents, S. A.; Baloga, S. M.; Glaze, L. S.

2013-12-01

The dispersal of ash from a volcanic vent on any given planet is dictated by particle properties (density, shape, and size distribution), the intensity of the eruptive source, and the characteristics of the planetary environment (atmospheric structure, wind field, and gravity) into which the ash is erupted. Relating observations of potential pyroclastic deposits to source locations and eruption conditions requires a detailed quantitative understanding of the settling rates of individual particles under changing ambient conditions. For atmospheres that are well described by continuum mechanics, the conventional Newtonian description of particle motion allows particle settling velocities to be related to particle characteristics via a drag coefficient. However, under rarefied atmospheric conditions (i.e., on Mars and at high altitude on Earth), non-continuum effects become important for ash-sized particles, and an equation of motion based on statistical mechanics is required for calculating particle motion. We have developed a rigorous new treatment of particle settling under variable atmospheric conditions and applied it to Earth and Mars. When non-continuum effects are important (as dictated by the mean free path of atmospheric gas relative to the particle size), fall velocities are greater than those calculated by continuum mechanics. When continuum conditions (i.e., higher atmospheric densities) are reached during descent, our model switches to a conventional formulation that determines the appropriate drag coefficient as the particle transits varying atmospheric properties. The variation of settling velocity with altitude allows computation of particle trajectories, fall durations and downwind dispersal. Our theoretical and numerical analyses show that several key, competing factors strongly influence the downwind trajectories of ash particles and the extents of the resulting deposits. These factors include: the shape of the particles (non-spherical particles fall more slowly than spherical particle shapes commonly adopted in settling models); the formation of particle aggregates, which enhances settling rates; and the lagging of particle motion behind the ambient wind field, which results in less widely dispersed deposits. Above all, any particles experiencing non-continuum effects settle faster and are less widely dispersed than particles falling in an entirely continuum regime. Our model results demonstrate the complex interplay of these factors in the Martian environment, and our approach provides a basis for relating deposits observed in planetary datasets to candidate volcanic sources and eruption conditions. This allows for a critical reassessment of the potential for explosive volcanism to contribute to extremely widespread, fine-grained, layered deposits such as the Medusae Fossae Formation.

Building-Resolved CFD Simulations for Greenhouse Gas Transport and Dispersion over Washington DC / Baltimore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, K.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Ghosh, S.; Mueller, K.; Whetstone, J. R.

2015-12-01

The North-East Corridor project aims to use a top-down inversion methodology to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions over urban domains such as Washington DC / Baltimore with high spatial and temporal resolution. Atmospheric transport of tracer gases from an emission source to a tower mounted receptor are usually conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For such simulations, WRF employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics generated by the flow around buildings and communities comprising a large city. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model that utilizes large eddy simulation methods to model flow around buildings at length scales much smaller than is practical with WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex urban topography on near-field dispersion and mixing difficult to simulate with a mesoscale atmospheric model. Such capabilities may be important in determining urban GHG emissions using atmospheric measurements. A methodology has been developed to run FDS as a sub-grid scale model within a WRF simulation. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards that computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. Using the coupled WRF / FDS model, NIST will investigate the effects of the urban canopy at horizontal resolutions of 10-20 m in a domain of 12 x 12 km. The coupled WRF-FDS simulations will be used to calculate the dispersion of tracer gases in the North-East Corridor and to evaluate the upwind areas that contribute to tower observations, referred to in the inversion community as influence functions. Results of this study will provide guidance regarding the importance of explicit simulations of urban atmospheric turbulence in obtaining accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and transport.

A Semi-Analytical Model for Dispersion Modelling Studies in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, A.; Sharan, M.

2017-12-01

The severe impact of harmful air pollutants has always been a cause of concern for a wide variety of air quality analysis. The analytical models based on the solution of the advection-diffusion equation have been the first and remain the convenient way for modeling air pollutant dispersion as it is easy to handle the dispersion parameters and related physics in it. A mathematical model describing the crosswind integrated concentration is presented. The analytical solution to the resulting advection-diffusion equation is limited to a constant and simple profiles of eddy diffusivity and wind speed. In practice, the wind speed depends on the vertical height above the ground and eddy diffusivity profiles on the downwind distance from the source as well as the vertical height. In the present model, a method of eigen-function expansion is used to solve the resulting partial differential equation with the appropriate boundary conditions. This leads to a system of first order ordinary differential equations with a coefficient matrix depending on the downwind distance. The solution of this system, in general, can be expressed in terms of Peano-baker series which is not easy to compute, particularly when the coefficient matrix becomes non-commutative (Martin et al., 1967). An approach based on Taylor's series expansion is introduced to find the numerical solution of first order system. The method is applied to various profiles of wind speed and eddy diffusivities. The solution computed from the proposed methodology is found to be efficient and accurate in comparison to those available in the literature. The performance of the model is evaluated with the diffusion datasets from Copenhagen (Gryning et al., 1987) and Hanford (Doran et al., 1985). In addition, the proposed method is used to deduce three dimensional concentrations by considering the Gaussian distribution in crosswind direction, which is also evaluated with diffusion data corresponding to a continuous point source.

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, Warren G.; Harris, Michael T.; Scott, Timothy C.; Basaran, Osman A.

1998-01-01

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two coaxial cylindrical bodies, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, Warren G.; Harris, Michael T.; Scott, Timothy C.; Basaran, Osman A.

1996-01-01

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two coaxial cylindrical bodies, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, W.G.; Basaran, O.A.; Harris, M.T.

1998-04-14

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two concentric electrodes, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode. 4 figs.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, W.G.; Basaran, O.A.; Harris, M.T.

1995-11-07

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two concentric electrodes, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode. 4 figs.

Dispersion Modeling of Traffic-Related Air Pollutant Exposures and Health Effects among Children with Asthma in Detroit, Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

Vehicular traffic is a major source of ambient air pollution in urban areas, and traffic-related air pollutants, including carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter under 2.5 microns in diameter (PM_2.5) and diesel exhaust emissions, have been associated with...

A simulated approach to estimating PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations downwind from cotton gins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton gins are required to obtain operating permits from state air pollution regulatory agencies (SAPRA), which regulate the amount of particulate matter that can be emitted. Industrial Source Complex Short Term version 3 (ISCST3) is the Gaussian dispersion model currently used by some SAPRAs to pr...

Probability model for atmospheric sulfur dioxide concentrations in the area of Venice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buttazzoni, C.; Lavagnini, I.; Marani, A.

1986-09-01

This paper deals with a comparative screening of existing air quality models based on their ability to simulate the distribution of sulfur dioxide data in the Venetian area. Investigations have been carried out on sulfur dioxide dispersion in the atmosphere of the Venetian area. The studies have been mainly focused on transport models (Gaussian, plume and K-models) aiming at meaningful correlations of sources and receptors. Among the results, a noteworthy disagreement of simulated and experimental data, due to the lack of thorough knowledge of source field conditions and of local meteorology of the sea-land transition area, has been shown. Investigationsmore » with receptor oriented models (based, e.g., on time series analysis, Fourier analysis, or statistical distributions) have also been performed.« less

Seasonal and diurnal patterns in the dispersion of SO2 from Mt. Nyiragongo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingwell, Adam; Rutgersson, Anna; Claremar, Björn; Arellano, Santiago; Yalire, Mathieu M.; Galle, Bo

2016-05-01

Mt. Nyiragongo is an active volcano located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, close to the border of Rwanda and about 15 km north of the city of Goma (∼ 1,000,000 inhabitants). Gases emitted from Nyiragongo might pose a persistent hazard to local inhabitants and the environment. While both ground- and satellite-based observations of the emissions exist, prior to this study, no detailed analysis of the dispersion of the emissions have been made. We have conducted a dispersion study, using a modelling system to determine the geographical distribution of SO2. A combination of a meteorological model (WRF), a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART-WRF) and flux data based on DOAS measurements from the NOVAC-network is used. Since observations can only be made during the day, we use random sampling of fluxes and ensemble modelling to estimate night-time emissions. Seasonal variations in the dispersion follows the migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. In June-August, the area with the highest surface concentrations is located to the northwest, and in December-February, to the southwest of the source. Diurnal variations in surface concentrations were determined by the development of the planetary boundary layer and the lake-/land breeze cycle around lake Kivu. Both processes contribute to low surface concentrations during the day and high concentrations during the night. However, the strong northerly trade winds in November-March weakened the lake breeze, contributing to higher daytime surface concentrations along the northern shore of Lake Kivu, including the city of Goma. For further analysis and measurements, it is important to include both seasonal and diurnal cycles in order to safely cover periods of high and potentially hazardous concentrations.

LES on Plume Dispersion in the Convective Boundary Layer Capped by a Temperature Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Hiromasa; Tamura, Tetsuro; Abe, Satoshi

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is applied to the problem of plume dispersion in the spatially-developing convective boundary layer (CBL) capped by a temperature inversion. In order to generate inflow turbulence with buoyant forcing, we first, simulate the neutral boundary layer flow (NBL) in the driver region using Lund's method. At the same time, the temperature profile possessing the inversion part is imposed at the entrance of the driver region and the temperature field is calculated as a passive scalar. Next, the buoyancy effect is introduced into the flow field in the main region. We evaluate the applicability of the LES model for atmospheric dispersion in the CBL flow and compare the characteristics of plume dispersion in the CBL flow with those in the neutral boundary layer. The Richardson number based on the temperature increment across the inversion obtained by the present LES model is 22.4 and the capping effect of the temperature inversion can be captured qualitatively in the upper portion of the CBL. Characteristics of flow and temperature fields in the main portion of CBL flow are similar to those of previous experiments[1],[2] and observations[3]. Concerning dispersion behavior, we also find that mean concentrations decrease immediately above the inversion height and the peak values of r.m.s concentrations are located near the inversion height at larger distances from the point source.

Unusual whistler with very large dispersion near the magnetopause: Geotail observation and ray-tracing modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagano, I.; Wu, X.-Y.; Yagitani, S.; Miyamura, K.; Matsumoto, H.

1998-06-01

A case of highly dispersed (~860 s1/2) whistler-like ELF (700-960 Hz) wave was detected with the waveform capture (WFC) receiver aboard the Geotail satellite during a dayside magnetopause skimming. Features of the single event distinguish it from the usual falling tone discrete emissions. By ray-tracing and full-wave calculation, the accessibility of the waves from a ground source of a distorted model magnetosphere were investigated. We propose that a lightning discharge at high latitudes is the most plausible source of the event via a special propagation effect revealed by the ray tracing. We demonstrate that the observed large wavenormal angle with respect to the geomagnetic field, the unusually large level of dispersion, and the lack of the expected nose frequency might be attributable to the frequency-dependent nonducted paths to the satellite. The rare occurrence may partly be caused by the Landau damping by the convecting suprathermal electron beams of several hundred eV. It is also shown that the multiple-hop magnetospherically reflected (MR) whistlers from middle latitudes, though being refracted to higher L shells by the plasmapause, are unable to reach the outer magnetosphere. Interhemisphere ducted propagation is possible for ELF waves along a narrow, modestly (15% or more) enhanced flux tube and shows an upper cutoff frequency governed by the high-latitude minimum-magnetic field ``horns'' regions and the duct enhancement and diameter. A full-wave calculation also implies no lower-frequency cutoff in the upward ionospheric transmission of lightning radiation down to 200 Hz. Because of the complexity of the various effects that influence the propagation from a ground source and the very low occurrence, effective whistler mode waves diagnostics of the highly variable outer magnetosphere are at present beyond our reach.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, W.G.; Harris, M.T.; Scott, T.C.; Basaran, O.A.

1996-04-02

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two coaxial cylindrical bodies, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode. 5 figs.

Nozzle for electric dispersion reactor

DOEpatents

Sisson, W.G.; Harris, M.T.; Scott, T.C.; Basaran, O.A.

1998-06-02

A nozzle for an electric dispersion reactor includes two coaxial cylindrical bodies, the inner one of the two delivering disperse phase fluid into a continuous phase fluid. A potential difference generated by a voltage source creates a dispersing electric field at the end of the inner electrode. 5 figs.

An aerosol particle containing enriched uranium encountered in the remote upper troposphere.

PubMed

Murphy, D M; Froyd, K D; Apel, E; Blake, D; Blake, N; Evangeliou, N; Hornbrook, R S; Peischl, J; Ray, E; Ryerson, T B; Thompson, C; Stohl, A

2018-04-01

We describe a submicron aerosol particle sampled at an altitude of 7 km near the Aleutian Islands that contained a small percentage of enriched uranium oxide. 235 U was 3.1 ± 0.5% of 238 U. During twenty years of aircraft sampling of millions of particles in the global atmosphere, we have rarely encountered a particle with a similarly high content of 238 U and never a particle with enriched 235 U. The bulk of the particle consisted of material consistent with combustion of heavy fuel oil. Analysis of wind trajectories and particle dispersion model results show that the particle could have originated from a variety of areas across Asia. The source of such a particle is unclear, and the particle is described here in case it indicates a novel source where enriched uranium was dispersed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Testing a high resolution CO2 and CO emission inventory against atmospheric observations in Salt Lake City, Utah for policy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, D. L.; Lin, J. C.; Mitchell, L.; Gurney, K. R.; Patarasuk, R.; Mallia, D. V.; Fasoli, B.; Bares, R.; Catharine, D.; O'Keeffe, D.; Song, Y.; Huang, J.; Horel, J.; Crosman, E.; Hoch, S.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2016-12-01

We address the need for robust highly-resolved emissions and trace gas concentration data required for planning purposes and policy development aimed at managing pollutant sources. Adverse health effects resulting from urban pollution exposure are the result of proximity to emission sources and atmospheric mixing, necessitating models with high spatial and temporal resolution. As urban emission sources co-emit carbon dioxide (CO2) and criteria air pollutants (CAPs), efforts to reduce specific pollutants would synergistically reduce others. We present a contemporary (2010-2015) emissions inventory and modeled CO2 and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations for Salt Lake County, Utah. We compare emissions transported by a dispersion model against stationary measurement data and present a systematic quantification of uncertainties. The emissions inventory for CO2 is based on the Hestia emissions data inventory that resolves emissions at hourly, building and road-link resolutions, as well as on an hourly gridded scale. The emissions were scaled using annual Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption data. We derived a CO emissions inventory using methods similar to Hestia, downscaling total county emissions from the 2011 Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The gridded CO emissions were compared against the Hestia CO2 gridded data to characterize spatial similarities and differences between them. Correlations were calculated at multiple scales of aggregation. The Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Trasport (STILT) dispersion model was used to transport emissions and estimate pollutant concentrations at an hourly resolution. Modeled results were compared against stationary measurements in the Salt Lake County area. This comparison highlights spatial locations and hours of high variability and uncertainty. Sensitivity to biological fluxes as well as to specific economic sectors was tested by varying their contributions to modeled concentrations and calibrating their emissions.

BTEX exposures in an area impacted by industrial and mobile sources: Source attribution and impact of averaging time.

PubMed

Presto, Albert A; Dallmann, Timothy R; Gu, Peishi; Rao, Unnati

2016-04-01

The impacts of emissions plumes from major industrial sources on black carbon (BC) and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylene isomers) exposures in communities located >10 km from the industrial source areas were identified with a combination of stationary measurements, source identification using positive matrix factorization (PMF), and dispersion modeling. The industrial emissions create multihour plume events of BC and BTEX at the measurement sites. PMF source apportionment, along with wind patterns, indicates that the observed pollutant plumes are the result of transport of industrial emissions under conditions of low boundary layer height. PMF indicates that industrial emissions contribute >50% of outdoor exposures of BC and BTEX species at the receptor sites. Dispersion modeling of BTEX emissions from known industrial sources predicts numerous overnight plumes and overall qualitative agreement with PMF analysis, but predicts industrial impacts at the measurement sites a factor of 10 lower than PMF. Nonetheless, exposures associated with pollutant plumes occur mostly at night, when residents are expected to be home but are perhaps unaware of the elevated exposure. Averaging data samples over long times typical of public health interventions (e.g., weekly or biweekly passive sampling) misapportions the exposure, reducing the impact of industrial plumes at the expense of traffic emissions, because the longer samples cannot resolve subdaily plumes. Suggestions are made for ways for future distributed pollutant mapping or intervention studies to incorporate high time resolution tools to better understand the potential impacts of industrial plumes. Emissions from industrial or other stationary sources can dominate air toxics exposures in communities both near the source and in downwind areas in the form of multihour plume events. Common measurement strategies that use highly aggregated samples, such as weekly or biweekly averages, are insensitive to such plume events and can lead to significant under apportionment of exposures from these sources.

Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and deposition, we are able to reasonably capture the deposition of radionuclides to the northwest of the reactor site.« less

Simulation of time-dispersion spectral device with sample spectra accumulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhdanov, Arseny; Khansuvarov, Ruslan; Korol, Georgy

2014-09-01

This research is conducted in order to design a spectral device for light sources power spectrum analysis. The spectral device should process radiation from sources, direct contact with radiation of which is either impossible or undesirable. Such sources include jet blast of an aircraft, optical radiation in metallurgy and textile industry. In proposed spectral device optical radiation is guided out of unfavorable environment via a piece of optical fiber with high dispersion. It is necessary for analysis to make samples of analyzed radiation as short pulses. Dispersion properties of such optical fiber cause spectral decomposition of input optical pulses. The faster time of group delay vary the stronger the spectral decomposition effect. This effect allows using optical fiber with high dispersion as a major element of proposed spectral device. Duration of sample must be much shorter than group delay time difference of a dispersive system. In the given frequency range this characteristic has to be linear. The frequency range is 400 … 500 THz for typical optical fiber. Using photonic-crystal fiber (PCF) gives much wider spectral range for analysis. In this paper we propose simulation of single pulse transmission through dispersive system with linear dispersion characteristic and quadratic-detected output responses accumulation. During simulation we propose studying influence of optical fiber dispersion characteristic angle on spectral measurement results. We also consider pulse duration and group delay time difference impact on output pulse shape and duration. Results show the most suitable dispersion characteristic that allow choosing the structure of PCF - major element of time-dispersion spectral analysis method and required number of samples for reliable assessment of measured spectrum.

Clustering-based Filtering to Detect Isolated and Intermittent Pulses in Radio Astronomy Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagstaff, Kiri; Tang, B.; Lazio, T. J.; Spolaor, S.

2013-01-01

Radio-emitting neutron stars (pulsars) produce a series of periodic pulses at radio frequencies. Dispersion, caused by propagation through the interstellar medium, delays signals at lower frequencies more than higher frequencies. This well understood effect can be reversed though de-dispersion at the appropriate dispersion measure (DM). The periodic nature of a pulsar provides multiple samples of signals at the same DM, increasing the reliability of any candidate detection. However, existing methods for pulsar detection are ineffective for many pulse-emitting phenomena now being discovered. Sources exhibit a wide range of pulse repetition rates, from highly regular canonical pulsars to intermittent and nulling pulsars to rotating radio transients (RRATs) that may emit only a few pulses per hour. Other source types may emit only a few pulses, or even only a single pulse. We seek to broaden the scope of radio signal analysis to enable the detection of isolated and intermittent pulses. Without a requirement that detected sources be periodic, we find that a typical de-dispersion search yields results that are often dominated by spurious detections from radio frequency interference (RFI). These occur across the DM range, so filtering out DM-0 signals is insufficient. We employ DBSCAN data clustering to identify groups within the de-dispersion results, using information for each candidate about time, DM, SNR, and pulse width. DBSCAN is a density-based clustering algorithm that offers two advantages over other clustering methods: 1) the number of clusters need not to be specified, and 2) there is no model of expected cluster shape (such as the Gaussian assumption behind EM clustering). Each data cluster can be selectively masked or investigated to facilitate the process of sifting through hundreds of thousands of detections to focus on those of true interest. Using data obtained by the Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT), we show how this approach can help separate RFI from difficult to find single and intermittent pulses.

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Atmospheric pathway formulations. Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-03-01

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is an integrated software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models for health and environmental risk assessments of both radioactive and hazardous pollutants. This atmospheric component report is one of a series of formulation reports that document the MEPAS mathematical models. MEPAS is a multimedia model; pollutant transport is modeled within, through, and between multiple media (air, soil, groundwater, and surface water). The estimated concentrations in the various media are used to compute exposures and impacts to the environment, to maximum individuals, and to populations. The MEPAS atmospheric component for the air mediamore » documented in this report includes models for emission from a source to the air, initial plume rise and dispersion, airborne pollutant transport and dispersion, and deposition to soils and crops. The material in this report is documentation for MEPAS Versions 3.0 and 3.1 and the MEPAS version used in the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS) Version 1.0.« less

Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

PubMed

Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

2014-05-01

To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

Carryover effects from natal habitat type upon competitive ability lead to trait divergence or source-sink dynamics.

PubMed

Kristensen, Nadiah Pardede; Johansson, Jacob; Chisholm, Ryan A; Smith, Henrik G; Kokko, Hanna

2018-06-25

Local adaptation to rare habitats is difficult due to gene flow, but can occur if the habitat has higher productivity. Differences in offspring phenotypes have attracted little attention in this context. We model a scenario where the rarer habitat improves offspring's later competitive ability - a carryover effect that operates on top of local adaptation to one or the other habitat type. Assuming localised dispersal, so the offspring tend to settle in similar habitat to the natal type, the superior competitive ability of offspring remaining in the rarer habitat hampers immigration from the majority habitat. This initiates a positive feedback between local adaptation and trait divergence, which can thereafter be reinforced by coevolution with dispersal traits that match ecotype to habitat type. Rarity strengthens selection on dispersal traits and promotes linkage disequilibrium between locally adapted traits and ecotype-habitat matching dispersal. We propose that carryover effects may initiate isolation by ecology. © 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

AERMOD as a Gaussian dispersion model for planning tracer gas dispersion tests for landfill methane emission quantification.

PubMed

Matacchiera, F; Manes, C; Beaven, R P; Rees-White, T C; Boano, F; Mønster, J; Scheutz, C

2018-02-13

The measurement of methane emissions from landfills is important to the understanding of landfills' contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The Tracer Dispersion Method (TDM) is becoming widely accepted as a technique, which allows landfill emissions to be quantified accurately provided that measurements are taken where the plumes of a released tracer-gas and landfill-gas are well-mixed. However, the distance at which full mixing of the gases occurs is generally unknown prior to any experimental campaign. To overcome this problem the present paper demonstrates that, for any specific TDM application, a simple Gaussian dispersion model (AERMOD) can be run beforehand to help determine the distance from the source at which full mixing conditions occur, and the likely associated measurement errors. An AERMOD model was created to simulate a series of TDM trials carried out at a UK landfill, and was benchmarked against the experimental data obtained. The model was used to investigate the impact of different factors (e.g. tracer cylinder placements, wind directions, atmospheric stability parameters) on TDM results to identify appropriate experimental set ups for different conditions. The contribution of incomplete vertical mixing of tracer and landfill gas on TDM measurement error was explored using the model. It was observed that full mixing conditions at ground level do not imply full mixing over the entire plume height. However, when full mixing conditions were satisfied at ground level, then the error introduced by variations in mixing higher up were always less than 10%. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Calibration of semi-stochastic procedure for simulating high-frequency ground motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seyhan, Emel; Stewart, Jonathan P.; Graves, Robert

2013-01-01

Broadband ground motion simulation procedures typically utilize physics-based modeling at low frequencies, coupled with semi-stochastic procedures at high frequencies. The high-frequency procedure considered here combines deterministic Fourier amplitude spectra (dependent on source, path, and site models) with random phase. Previous work showed that high-frequency intensity measures from this simulation methodology attenuate faster with distance and have lower intra-event dispersion than in empirical equations. We address these issues by increasing crustal damping (Q) to reduce distance attenuation bias and by introducing random site-to-site variations to Fourier amplitudes using a lognormal standard deviation ranging from 0.45 for Mw < 7 to zero for Mw 8. Ground motions simulated with the updated parameterization exhibit significantly reduced distance attenuation bias and revised dispersion terms are more compatible with those from empirical models but remain lower at large distances (e.g., > 100 km).

Modeling of dispersion engineered chalcogenide rib waveguide for ultraflat mid-infrared supercontinuum generation in all-normal dispersion regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, H.; Karim, M. R.; Rahman, B. M. A.

2018-03-01

A rigorous numerical investigation has been carried out through dispersion engineering of chalcogenide rib waveguide for near-infrared to mid-infrared ultraflat broadband supercontinuum generation in all-normal group-velocity dispersion regime. We propose a novel design of a 1-cm-long air-clad rib waveguide which is made from {Ge}_{11.5} {As}_{24} {Se}_{64.5} chalcogenide glass as the core with either silica or {Ge}_{11.5} {As}_{24} {S}_{64.5} chalcogenide glass as a lower cladding separately. A broadband ultraflat supercontinuum spanning from 1300 to 1900 nm could be generated when pumped at 1.55 μ {m} with a low input peak power of 100 W. Shifting the pump to 2 μ {m}, the supercontinuum spectra extended in the mid-infrared region up to 3400 nm with a moderate-input peak power of 500 W. To achieve further extension in mid-infrared, we excite our optimized rib waveguide in both the anomalous and all-normal dispersion pumping regions at 3.1 μ {m} with a largest input peak power of 3 kW. In the case of anomalous dispersion region pumping, numerical analysis shows that supercontinuum spectrum can be extended in the mid-infrared up to 10 μ {m}, although this contains high spectral amplitude fluctuations over the entire bandwidth which limits the supercontinuum sources in the field of high precision measurement applications. On the other hand, by optimizing a rib waveguide geometry for pumping in all-normal dispersion region, we are able to generate a smooth and flat-top coherent supercontinuum spectrum with a moderate bandwidth spanning the wavelength range 2-5.5 μ {m} with less than 5 dB spectral fluctuation over the entire output bandwidth. Our proposed design is highly suitable for making on-chip SC light sources for a variety of applications such as biomedical imaging, and environmental and industrial sensing in the mid-infrared region.

Transport and dispersion of pollutants in surface impoundments: a finite difference model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, G.T.

1980-07-01

A surface impoundment model by finite-difference (SIMFD) has been developed. SIMFD computes the flow rate, velocity field, and the concentration distribution of pollutants in surface impoundments with any number of islands located within the region of interest. Theoretical derivations and numerical algorithm are described in detail. Instructions for the application of SIMFD and listings of the FORTRAN IV source program are provided. Two sample problems are given to illustrate the application and validity of the model.

Rafting rocks reveal marine biological dispersal: A case study using clasts from beach-cast macroalgal holdfasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garden, Christopher J.; Craw, Dave; Waters, Jonathan M.; Smith, Abigail

2011-12-01

Tracking and quantifying biological dispersal presents a major challenge in marine systems. Most existing methods for measuring dispersal are limited by poor resolution and/or high cost. Here we use geological data to quantify the frequency of long-distance dispersal in detached bull-kelp (Phaeophyceae: Durvillaea) in southern New Zealand. Geological resolution in this region is enhanced by the presence of a number of distinct and readily-identifiable geological terranes. We sampled 13,815 beach-cast bull-kelp plants across 130 km of coastline. Rocks were found attached to 2639 of the rafted plants, and were assigned to specific geological terranes (source regions) to quantify dispersal frequencies and distances. Although the majority of kelp-associated rock specimens were found to be locally-derived, a substantial number (4%) showed clear geological evidence of long-distance dispersal, several having travelled over 200 km from their original source regions. The proportion of local versus foreign clasts varied considerably between regions. While short-range dispersal clearly predominates, long-distance travel of detached bull-kelp plants is shown to be a common and ongoing process that has potential to connect isolated coastal populations. Geological analyses represent a cost-effective and powerful method for assigning large numbers of drifted macroalgae to their original source regions.

Improving bioaerosol exposure assessments of composting facilities — Comparative modelling of emissions from different compost ages and processing activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, M. P. M.; Drew, G. H.; Tamer, A.; Hewings, G.; Jordinson, G. M.; Longhurst, P. J.; Pollard, S. J. T.

We present bioaerosol source term concentrations from passive and active composting sources and compare emissions from green waste compost aged 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 16 weeks. Results reveal that the age of compost has little effect on the bioaerosol concentrations emitted for passive windrow sources. However emissions from turning compost during the early stages may be higher than during the later stages of the composting process. The bioaerosol emissions from passive sources were in the range of 10 3-10 4 cfu m -3, with releases from active sources typically 1-log higher. We propose improvements to current risk assessment methodologies by examining emission rates and the differences between two air dispersion models for the prediction of downwind bioaerosol concentrations at off-site points of exposure. The SCREEN3 model provides a more precautionary estimate of the source depletion curves of bioaerosol emissions in comparison to ADMS 3.3. The results from both models predict that bioaerosol concentrations decrease to below typical background concentrations before 250 m, the distance at which the regulator in England and Wales may require a risk assessment to be completed.

The Relationship of Revenue Dispersion to Several Indicators of Institutional Financial Conditions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Barbara A.

The relationship between revenue dispersion and several indicators of financial condition in four-year colleges and universities was studied. Revenue dispersion is a measure of the diversity of institutional income sources. It was hypothesized that revenue dispersion would be positively related to financial condition, since variants on…

Mercury emission and dispersion models from soils contaminated by cinnabar mining and metallurgy.

PubMed

Llanos, Willians; Kocman, David; Higueras, Pablo; Horvat, Milena

2011-12-01

The laboratory flux measurement system (LFMS) and dispersion models were used to investigate the kinetics of mercury emission flux (MEF) from contaminated soils. Representative soil samples with respect to total Hg concentration (26-9770 μg g(-1)) surrounding a decommissioned mercury-mining area (Las Cuevas Mine), and a former mercury smelter (Cerco Metalúrgico de Almadenejos), in the Almadén mercury mining district (South Central Spain), were collected. Altogether, 14 samples were analyzed to determine the variation in mercury emission flux (MEF) versus distance from the sources, regulating two major environmental parameters comprising soil temperature and solar radiation. In addition, the fraction of the water-soluble mercury in these samples was determined in order to assess how MEF from soil is related to the mercury in the aqueous soil phase. Measured MEFs ranged from less than 140 to over 10,000 ng m(-2) h(-1), with the highest emissions from contaminated soils adjacent to point sources. A significant decrease of MEF was then observed with increasing distance from these sites. Strong positive effects of both temperature and solar radiation on MEF was observed. Moreover, MEF was found to occur more easily in soils with higher proportions of soluble mercury compared to soils where cinnabar prevails. Based on the calculated Hg emission rates and with the support of geographical information system (GIS) tools and ISC AERMOD software, dispersion models for atmospheric mercury were implemented. In this way, the gaseous mercury plume generated by the soil-originated emissions at different seasons was modeled. Modeling efforts revealed that much higher emissions and larger mercury plumes are generated in dry and warm periods (summer), while the plume is smaller and associated with lower concentrations of atmospheric mercury during colder periods with higher wind activity (fall). Based on the calculated emissions and the model implementation, yearly emissions from the "Cerco Metalúrgico de Almadenejos" decommissioned metallurgical precinct were estimated at 16.4 kg Hg y(-1), with significant differences between seasons.

Scalar Fluxes Near a Tall Building in an Aligned Array of Rectangular Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuka, Vladimír; Xie, Zheng-Tong; Castro, Ian P.; Hayden, Paul; Carpentieri, Matteo; Robins, Alan G.

2018-04-01

Scalar dispersion from ground-level sources in arrays of buildings is investigated using wind-tunnel measurements and large-eddy simulation (LES). An array of uniform-height buildings of equal dimensions and an array with an additional single tall building (wind tunnel) or a periodically repeated tall building (LES) are considered. The buildings in the array are aligned and form long streets. The sensitivity of the dispersion pattern to small changes in wind direction is demonstrated. Vertical scalar fluxes are decomposed into the advective and turbulent parts and the influences of wind direction and of the presence of the tall building on the scalar flux components are evaluated. In the uniform-height array turbulent scalar fluxes are dominant, whereas the tall building produces an increase of the magnitude of advective scalar fluxes that yields the largest component. The presence of the tall building causes either an increase or a decrease to the total vertical scalar flux depending on the position of the source with respect to the tall building. The results of the simulations can be used to develop parametrizations for street-canyon dispersion models and enhance their capabilities in areas with tall buildings.

A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

2009-02-01

Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

Pollutant Plume Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Idealized Urban Roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Colman C. C.; Liu, Chun-Ho

2013-05-01

The Gaussian model of plume dispersion is commonly used for pollutant concentration estimates. However, its major parameters, dispersion coefficients, barely account for terrain configuration and surface roughness. Large-scale roughness elements (e.g. buildings in urban areas) can substantially modify the ground features together with the pollutant transport in the atmospheric boundary layer over urban roughness (also known as the urban boundary layer, UBL). This study is thus conceived to investigate how urban roughness affects the flow structure and vertical dispersion coefficient in the UBL. Large-eddy simulation (LES) is carried out to examine the plume dispersion from a ground-level pollutant (area) source over idealized street canyons for cross flows in neutral stratification. A range of building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios, covering the regimes of skimming flow, wake interference, and isolated roughness, is employed to control the surface roughness. Apart from the widely used aerodynamic resistance or roughness function, the friction factor is another suitable parameter that measures the drag imposed by urban roughness quantitatively. Previous results from laboratory experiments and mathematical modelling also support the aforementioned approach for both two- and three-dimensional roughness elements. Comparing the UBL plume behaviour, the LES results show that the pollutant dispersion strongly depends on the friction factor. Empirical studies reveal that the vertical dispersion coefficient increases with increasing friction factor in the skimming flow regime (lower resistance) but is more uniform in the regimes of wake interference and isolated roughness (higher resistance). Hence, it is proposed that the friction factor and flow regimes could be adopted concurrently for pollutant concentration estimate in the UBL over urban street canyons of different roughness.

Pollen flow of wheat under natural conditions in the Huanghuai River Wheat Region, China

PubMed Central

Sun, Ai-Qing; Zhang, Chun-Qing; Wu, Cheng-Lai; Gao, Qing-Rong

2015-01-01

abstract The transgenic pollen spread is the main pathway of transgenic plant gene flow. The maximum distance of pollen dispersal (horizontal), the spatial dynamics of pollen movement (vertical), and the patterns of pollen dispersal are important considerations in biosafety assessments of genetically modified crops. To evaluate wheat (Triticum aestivum) pollen dispersal, we measured the pollen suspension velocity and analyzed pollen dispersal patterns under natural conditions in the Huanghuai River wheat-growing region in 2009. The pollen suspension velocity was 0.3–0.4 m/s. The highest pollen densities were detected in the north, northwest, and south of the pollen source. Pollen was dispersed over distances greater than 245 m in the northwest and northeast directions. At the pollen source center, pollen density decreased with increasing vertical height. In the north of the pollen source, the pollen density from 65 m to 225 m showed a wave-mode decrease with increasing height. The horizontal transport of pollen over longer distances fitted polynomial equations. In the north, the pollen density was highest at 45 m from the pollen source, and decreased with increasing distance. In the northwest, the pollen density showed a double-peak trend. In the northeast, pollen density was highest from 45 m to 125 m from the source. Wind speeds greater than the pollen suspension velocity and the duration of continuous gusts were the main factors affecting pollen dispersal. This information will be useful for determining the spatial isolation distances for hybrid seed production and for the commercial production of transgenic wheat. PMID:25658025

Simulation of Turbulent Combustion Fields of Shock-Dispersed Aluminum Using the AMR Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhl, A L; Bell, J B; Beckner, V E

2006-11-02

We present a Model for simulating experiments of combustion in Shock-Dispersed-Fuel (SDF) explosions. The SDF charge consisted of a 0.5-g spherical PETN booster, surrounded by 1-g of fuel powder (flake Aluminum). Detonation of the booster charge creates a high-temperature, high-pressure source (PETN detonation products gases) that both disperses the fuel and heats it. Combustion ensues when the fuel mixes with air. The gas phase is governed by the gas-dynamic conservation laws, while the particle phase obeys the continuum mechanics laws for heterogeneous media. The two phases exchange mass, momentum and energy according to inter-phase interaction terms. The kinetics model usedmore » an empirical particle burn relation. The thermodynamic model considers the air, fuel and booster products to be of frozen composition, while the Al combustion products are assumed to be in equilibrium. The thermodynamic states were calculated by the Cheetah code; resulting state points were fit with analytic functions suitable for numerical simulations. Numerical simulations of combustion of an Aluminum SDF charge in a 6.4-liter chamber were performed. Computed pressure histories agree with measurements.« less

A Review of Exposure Assessment Methods in Epidemiological Studies on Incinerators

PubMed Central

Ranzi, Andrea; De Leo, Giulio A.; Lauriola, Paolo

2013-01-01

Incineration is a common technology for waste disposal, and there is public concern for the health impact deriving from incinerators. Poor exposure assessment has been claimed as one of the main causes of inconsistency in the epidemiological literature. We reviewed 41 studies on incinerators published between 1984 and January 2013 and classified them on the basis of exposure assessment approach. Moreover, we performed a simulation study to explore how the different exposure metrics may influence the exposure levels used in epidemiological studies. 19 studies used linear distance as a measure of exposure to incinerators, 11 studies atmospheric dispersion models, and the remaining 11 studies a qualitative variable such as presence/absence of the source. All reviewed studies utilized residence as a proxy for population exposure, although residence location was evaluated with different precision (e.g., municipality, census block, or exact address). Only one study reconstructed temporal variability in exposure. Our simulation study showed a notable degree of exposure misclassification caused by the use of distance compared to dispersion modelling. We suggest that future studies (i) make full use of pollution dispersion models; (ii) localize population on a fine-scale; and (iii) explicitly account for the presence of potential environmental and socioeconomic confounding. PMID:23840228

Explosive particle soil surface dispersion model for detonated military munitions.

PubMed

Hathaway, John E; Rishel, Jeremy P; Walsh, Marianne E; Walsh, Michael R; Taylor, Susan

2015-07-01

The accumulation of high explosive mass residue from the detonation of military munitions on training ranges is of environmental concern because of its potential to contaminate the soil, surface water, and groundwater. The US Department of Defense wants to quantify, understand, and remediate high explosive mass residue loadings that might be observed on active firing ranges. Previously, efforts using various sampling methods and techniques have resulted in limited success, due in part to the complicated dispersion pattern of the explosive particle residues upon detonation. In our efforts to simulate particle dispersal for high- and low-order explosions on hypothetical firing ranges, we use experimental particle data from detonations of munitions from a 155-mm howitzer, which are common military munitions. The mass loadings resulting from these simulations provide a previously unattained level of detail to quantify the explosive residue source-term for use in soil and water transport models. In addition, the resulting particle placements can be used to test, validate, and optimize particle sampling methods and statistical models as applied to firing ranges. Although the presented results are for a hypothetical 155-mm howitzer firing range, the method can be used for other munition types once the explosive particle characteristics are known.

Inverse modelling of radionuclide release rates using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, Thomas; Stohl, Andreas; von Haustein, Christoph; Thummerer, Severin; Wallner, Christian

2014-05-01

Severe accidents in nuclear power plants such as the historical accident in Chernobyl 1986 or the more recent disaster in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have drastic impacts on the population and environment. The hazardous consequences reach out on a national and continental scale. Environmental measurements and methods to model the transport and dispersion of the released radionuclides serve as a platform to assess the regional impact of nuclear accidents - both, for research purposes and, more important, to determine the immediate threat to the population. However, the assessments of the regional radionuclide activity concentrations and the individual exposure to radiation dose underlie several uncertainties. For example, the accurate model representation of wet and dry deposition. One of the most significant uncertainty, however, results from the estimation of the source term. That is, the time dependent quantification of the released spectrum of radionuclides during the course of the nuclear accident. The quantification of the source terms of severe nuclear accidents may either remain uncertain (e.g. Chernobyl, Devell et al., 1995) or rely on rather rough estimates of released key radionuclides given by the operators. Precise measurements are mostly missing due to practical limitations during the accident. Inverse modelling can be used to realise a feasible estimation of the source term (Davoine and Bocquet, 2007). Existing point measurements of radionuclide activity concentrations are therefore combined with atmospheric transport models. The release rates of radionuclides at the accident site are then obtained by improving the agreement between the modelled and observed concentrations (Stohl et al., 2012). The accuracy of the method and hence of the resulting source term depends amongst others on the availability, reliability and the resolution in time and space of the observations. Radionuclide activity concentrations are observed on a relatively sparse grid and the temporal resolution of available data may be low within the order of hours or a day. Gamma dose rates on the other hand are observed routinely on a much denser grid and higher temporal resolution. Gamma dose rate measurements contain no explicit information on the observed spectrum of radionuclides and have to be interpreted carefully. Nevertheless, they provide valuable information for the inverse evaluation of the source term due to their availability (Saunier et al., 2013). We present a new inversion approach combining an atmospheric dispersion model and observations of radionuclide activity concentrations and gamma dose rates to obtain the source term of radionuclides. We use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al., 1998; Stohl et al., 2005) to model the atmospheric transport of the released radionuclides. The gamma dose rates are calculated from the modelled activity concentrations. The inversion method uses a Bayesian formulation considering uncertainties for the a priori source term and the observations (Eckhardt et al., 2008). The a priori information on the source term is a first guess. The gamma dose rate observations will be used with inverse modelling to improve this first guess and to retrieve a reliable source term. The details of this method will be presented at the conference. This work is funded by the Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz BfS, Forschungsvorhaben 3612S60026. References Davoine, X. and Bocquet, M., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007. Devell, L., et al., OCDE/GD(96)12, 1995. Eckhardt, S., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 3881-3897, 2008. Saunier, O., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11403-11421, 2013. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Environ., 32, 4245-4264, 1998. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2461-2474, 2005. Stohl, A., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313-2343, 2012.

Sensitivity of a Bayesian atmospheric-transport inversion model to spatio-temporal sensor resolution applied to the 2006 North Korean nuclear test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, K. A.; Jensen, D. D.; Lucas, D. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric source reconstruction allows for the probabilistic estimate of source characteristics of an atmospheric release using observations of the release. Performance of the inversion depends partially on the temporal frequency and spatial scale of the observations. The objective of this study is to quantify the sensitivity of the source reconstruction method to sparse spatial and temporal observations. To this end, simulations of atmospheric transport of noble gasses are created for the 2006 nuclear test at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Synthetic observations are collected from the simulation, and are taken as "ground truth". Data denial techniques are used to progressively coarsen the temporal and spatial resolution of the synthetic observations, while the source reconstruction model seeks to recover the true input parameters from the synthetic observations. Reconstructed parameters considered here are source location, source timing and source quantity. Reconstruction is achieved by running an ensemble of thousands of dispersion model runs that sample from a uniform distribution of the input parameters. Machine learning is used to train a computationally-efficient surrogate model from the ensemble simulations. Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian inversion are then used in conjunction with the surrogate model to quantify the posterior probability density functions of source input parameters. This research seeks to inform decision makers of the tradeoffs between more expensive, high frequency observations and less expensive, low frequency observations.

Review on urban vegetation and particle air pollution - Deposition and dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janhäll, Sara

2015-03-01

Urban vegetation affects air quality through influencing pollutant deposition and dispersion. Both processes are described by many existing models and experiments, on-site and in wind tunnels, focussing e.g. on urban street canyons and crossings or vegetation barriers adjacent to traffic sources. There is an urgent need for well-structured experimental data, including detailed empirical descriptions of parameters that are not the explicit focus of the study. This review revealed that design and choice of urban vegetation is crucial when using vegetation as an ecosystem service for air quality improvements. The reduced mixing in trafficked street canyons on adding large trees increases local air pollution levels, while low vegetation close to sources can improve air quality by increasing deposition. Filtration vegetation barriers have to be dense enough to offer large deposition surface area and porous enough to allow penetration, instead of deflection of the air stream above the barrier. The choice between tall or short and dense or sparse vegetation determines the effect on air pollution from different sources and different particle sizes.

Metapopulation dynamics and total biomass: Understanding the effects of diffusion in complex networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

2018-05-01

In this study, I explored the impact of constructing a new dispersal route between two different patches in a metapopulation. My results indicated that its success/failure on the population abundance greatly depends on the patches directly involved and negligibly on the network topology. Specifically, constructing a dispersal route is highly recommended if it connects a source to a source that is close to becoming a sink or a sink that is close to becoming a source. This biological property is the basis for understanding the influence of the network topology on the population abundance. According to some thresholds discussed in this manuscript, I identified when a given route has a positive or negative effect on the population size. Consequently, as a simple rule of thumb, managers should look for metapopulations that have the maximum (resp. minimum) number paths with a positive (resp. negative) effect on the population abundance. As emphasized, the biological results of this paper do not depend on the model formulation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal distributions of ambient oxides of nitrogen, with implications for exposure inequality and urban design.

PubMed

Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

2013-08-01

Intra-urban differences in concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) and exposure disparities in the Tampa area were investigated across temporal scales through emissions estimation, dispersion modeling, and analysis of residential subpopulation exposures. A hybrid estimation method was applied to provide link-level hourly on-road mobile source emissions. Ambient concentrations in 2002 at 1 km resolution were estimated using the CALPUFF dispersion model. Results were combined with residential demographic data at the block-group level, to investigate exposures and inequality for select racioethnic, age, and income population subgroups. Results indicate that on-road mobile sources contributed disproportionately to ground-level concentrations and dominated the spatial footprint across temporal scales (annual average to maximum hour). The black, lower income (less than $40K annually), and Hispanic subgroups had higher estimated exposures than the county average; the white and higher income (greater than $60K) subgroups had lower than average exposures. As annual average concentration increased, the disparity between groups generally increased. However for the highest 1-hr concentrations, reverse disparities were also found. Current studies of air pollution exposure inequality have not fully considered differences by time scale and are often limited in spatial resolution. The modeling methods and the results presented here can be used to improve understanding of potential impacts of urban growth form on health and to improve urban sustainability. Results suggest focusing urban design interventions on reducing on-road mobile source emissions in areas with high densities of minority and low income groups.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Long-distance plant dispersal to North Atlantic islands: colonization routes and founder effect

PubMed Central

Alsos, Inger Greve; Ehrich, Dorothee; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Solstad, Heidi; Westergaard, Kristine Bakke; Schönswetter, Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Birkeland, Siri; Elven, Reidar; Brochmann, Christian

2015-01-01

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) processes influence the founder effect on islands. We use genetic data for 25 Atlantic species and similarities among regional floras to analyse colonization, and test whether the genetic founder effect on five islands is associated with dispersal distance, island size and species traits. Most species colonized postglacially via multiple dispersal events from several source regions situated 280 to >3000 km away, and often not from the closest ones. A strong founder effect was observed for insect-pollinated mixed maters, and it increased with dispersal distance and decreased with island size in accordance with the theory of island biogeography. Only a minor founder effect was observed for wind-pollinated outcrossing species. Colonization patterns were largely congruent, indicating that despite the importance of stochasticity, LDD is mainly determined by common factors, probably dispersal vectors. Our findings caution against a priori assuming a single, close source region in biogeographic analyses. PMID:25876627

An End-to-End Model of Plant Pheromone Channel for Long Range Molecular Communication.

PubMed

Unluturk, Bige D; Akyildiz, Ian F

2017-01-01

A new track in molecular communication is using pheromones which can scale up the range of diffusion-based communication from μm meters to meters and enable new applications requiring long range. Pheromone communication is the emission of molecules in the air which trigger behavioral or physiological responses in receiving organisms. The objective of this paper is to introduce a new end-to-end model which incorporates pheromone behavior with communication theory for plants. The proposed model includes both the transmission and reception processes as well as the propagation channel. The transmission process is the emission of pheromones from the leaves of plants. The dispersion of pheromones by the flow of wind constitutes the propagation process. The reception process is the sensing of pheromones by the pheromone receptors of plants. The major difference of pheromone communication from other molecular communication techniques is the dispersion channel acting under the laws of turbulent diffusion. In this paper, the pheromone channel is modeled as a Gaussian puff, i.e., a cloud of pheromone released instantaneously from the source whose dispersion follows a Gaussian distribution. Numerical results on the performance of the overall end-to-end pheromone channel in terms of normalized gain and delay are provided.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the MASW technique in a geologically complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anukwu, G. C.; Khalil, A. E.; Abdullah, K. B.

2018-04-01

MASW surveys carried at a number of sites in Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, showed complicated dispersion curves which consequently made the inversion into soil shear velocity model ambiguous. This research work details effort to define the source of these complicated dispersion curves. As a starting point, the complexity of the phase velocity spectrum is assumed to be due to either the surveying parameters or the elastic properties of the soil structures. For the former, the surveying was carried out using different parameters. The complexities were persistent for the different surveying parameters, an indication that the elastic properties of the soil structure could be the reason. In order to exploit this assumption, a synthetic modelling approach was adopted using information from borehole, literature and geologically plausible models. Results suggest that the presence of irregular variation in the stiffness of the soil layers, high stiffness contrast and relatively shallow bedrock, results in a quite complex f-v spectrum, especially at frequencies lower than 20Hz, making it difficult to accurately extract the dispersion curve below this frequency. As such, for MASW technique, especially in complex geological situations as demonstrated, great care should be taken during the data processing and inversion to obtain a model that accurately depicts the subsurface.

Investigating the value of passive microwave observations for monitoring volcanic eruption source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montopoli, Mario; Cimini, Domenico; Marzano, Frank

2016-04-01

Volcanic eruptions inject both gas and solid particles into the Atmosphere. Solid particles are made by mineral fragments of different sizes (from few microns to meters), generally referred as tephra. Tephra from volcanic eruptions has enormous impacts on social and economical activities through the effects on the environment, climate, public health, and air traffic. The size, density and shape of a particle determine its fall velocity and thus residence time in the Atmosphere. Larger particles tend to fall quickly in the proximity of the volcano, while smaller particles may remain suspended for several days and thus may be transported by winds for thousands of km. Thus, the impact of such hazards involves local as well as large scales effects. Local effects involve mostly the large sized particles, while large scale effects are caused by the transport of the finest ejected tephra (ash) through the atmosphere. Forecasts of ash paths in the atmosphere are routinely run after eruptions using dispersion models. These models make use of meteorological and volcanic source parameters. The former are usually available as output of numerical weather prediction models or large scale reanalysis. Source parameters characterize the volcanic eruption near the vent; these are mainly the ash mass concentration along the vertical column and the top altitude of the volcanic plume, which is strictly related to the flux of the mass ejected at the emission source. These parameters should be known accurately and continuously; otherwise, strong hypothesis are usually needed, leading to large uncertainty in the dispersion forecasts. However, direct observations during an eruption are typically dangerous and impractical. Thus, satellite remote sensing is often exploited to monitor volcanic emissions, using visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) channels available on both Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites. VIS and IR satellite imagery are very useful to monitor the dispersal fine-ash cloud, but tend to saturate near the source due to the strong optical extinction of ash cloud top layers. Conversely, observations at microwave (MW) channels from LEO satellites have demonstrated to carry additional information near the volcano source due to the relative lower opacity. This feature makes satellite MW complementary to IR radiometry for estimating source parameters close to the volcano emission, at the cost of coarser spatial resolution. The presentation shows the value of passive MW observations for the detection and quantitative retrieval of volcanic emission source parameters through the investigation of notable case studies, such as the eruptions of Grímsvötn (Iceland, May 2011) and Calbuco (Cile, April 2015), observed by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder.

Impact of meteorological inflow uncertainty on tracer transport and source estimation in urban atmospheres

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Donald D.; Gowardhan, Akshay; Cameron-Smith, Philip

2015-08-08

Here, a computational Bayesian inverse technique is used to quantify the effects of meteorological inflow uncertainty on tracer transport and source estimation in a complex urban environment. We estimate a probability distribution of meteorological inflow by comparing wind observations to Monte Carlo simulations from the Aeolus model. Aeolus is a computational fluid dynamics model that simulates atmospheric and tracer flow around buildings and structures at meter-scale resolution. Uncertainty in the inflow is propagated through forward and backward Lagrangian dispersion calculations to determine the impact on tracer transport and the ability to estimate the release location of an unknown source. Ourmore » uncertainty methods are compared against measurements from an intensive observation period during the Joint Urban 2003 tracer release experiment conducted in Oklahoma City.« less

Use of empirically derived source-destination models to map regional conservation corridors

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Michael K. Schwartz

2008-01-01

The ability of populations to be connected across large landscapes via dispersal is critical to longterm viability for many species. One means to mitigate population isolation is the protection of movement corridors among habitat patches. Nevertheless, the utility of small, narrow, linear features as habitat corridors has been hotly debated. Here, we argue that...

Long range transport of air pollutants in Europe and acid precipitation in Norway

Treesearch

Jack Nordo

1976-01-01

Observations show that pollutants from large emission sources may cause significant air concentrations 500 to 1000 miles away. Very acid precipitation occurs in such periods. The scavenging is often intensified by the topography. Case studies will be presented, with special emphasis on acid precipitation in Scandinavia. Large scale dispersion models have been developed...

X-ray intensity and source size characterizations for the 25 kV upgraded Manson source at Sandia National Laboratories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loisel, G.; Lake, P.; Gard, P.; Dunham, G.; Nielsen-Weber, L.; Wu, M.; Norris, E.

2016-11-01

At Sandia National Laboratories, the x-ray generator Manson source model 5 was upgraded from 10 to 25 kV. The purpose of the upgrade is to drive higher characteristics photon energies with higher throughput. In this work we present characterization studies for the source size and the x-ray intensity when varying the source voltage for a series of K-, L-, and M-shell lines emitted from Al, Y, and Au elements composing the anode. We used a 2-pinhole camera to measure the source size and an energy dispersive detector to monitor the spectral content and intensity of the x-ray source. As the voltage increases, the source size is significantly reduced and line intensity is increased for the three materials. We can take advantage of the smaller source size and higher source throughput to effectively calibrate the suite of Z Pulsed Power Facility crystal spectrometers.

Biodiversity, productivity, and the spatial insurance hypothesis revisited

PubMed Central

Shanafelt, David W.; Dieckmann, Ulf; Jonas, Matthias; Franklin, Oskar; Loreau, Michel; Perrings, Charles

2015-01-01

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss have led ecologists to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem functioning and the flow of ecosystem services. One explanation of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning lies in the spatial insurance hypothesis, which centers on the idea that productivity and stability increase with biodiversity in a temporally varying, spatially heterogeneous environment. However, there has been little work on the impact of dispersal where environmental risks are more or less spatially correlated, or where dispersal rates are variable. In this paper, we extend the original Loreau model to consider stochastic temporal variation in resource availability, which we refer to as “environmental risk,” and heterogeneity in species dispersal rates. We find that asynchronies across communities and species provide community-level stabilizing effects on productivity, despite varying levels of species richness. Although intermediate dispersal rates play a role in mitigating risk, they are less effective in insuring productivity against global (metacommunity-level) than local (individual community-level) risks. These results are particularly interesting given the emergence of global sources of risk such as climate change or the closer integration of world markets. Our results offer deeper insights into the Loreau model and new perspectives on the effectiveness of spatial insurance in the face of environmental risks. PMID:26100182

A photoevaporative gap in the closest planet-forming disc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercolano, Barbara; Rosotti, Giovanni P.; Picogna, Giovanni; Testi, Leonardo

2017-01-01

The dispersal of the circum-stellar discs of dust and gas surrounding young low-mass stars has important implications for the formation of planetary systems. Photoevaporation from energetic radiation from the central object is thought to drive the dispersal in the majority of discs, by creating a gap which disconnects the outer from the inner regions of the disc and then disperses the outer disc from the inside-out, while the inner disc keeps draining viscously on to the star. In this Letter, we show that the disc around TW Hya, the closest protoplanetary disc to Earth, may be the first object where a photoevaporative gap has been imaged around the time at which it is being created. Indeed, the detected gap in the Atacama large millimeter/submillimeter array images is consistent with the expectations of X-ray photoevaporation models, thus not requiring the presence of a planet. The photoevaporation model is also consistent with a broad range of properties of the TW Hya system, e.g. accretion rate and the location of the gap at the onset of dispersal. We show that the central, unresolved 870 μm continuum source might be produced by free-free emission from the gas and/or residual dust inside the gap.

Biodiversity, productivity, and the spatial insurance hypothesis revisited.

PubMed

Shanafelt, David W; Dieckmann, Ulf; Jonas, Matthias; Franklin, Oskar; Loreau, Michel; Perrings, Charles

2015-09-07

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss have led ecologists to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem functioning and the flow of ecosystem services. One explanation of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning lies in the spatial insurance hypothesis, which centers on the idea that productivity and stability increase with biodiversity in a temporally varying, spatially heterogeneous environment. However, there has been little work on the impact of dispersal where environmental risks are more or less spatially correlated, or where dispersal rates are variable. In this paper, we extend the original Loreau model to consider stochastic temporal variation in resource availability, which we refer to as "environmental risk", and heterogeneity in species dispersal rates. We find that asynchronies across communities and species provide community-level stabilizing effects on productivity, despite varying levels of species richness. Although intermediate dispersal rates play a role in mitigating risk, they are less effective in insuring productivity against global (metacommunity-level) than local (individual community-level) risks. These results are particularly interesting given the emergence of global sources of risk such as climate change or the closer integration of world markets. Our results offer deeper insights into the Loreau model and new perspectives on the effectiveness of spatial insurance in the face of environmental risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air pollution dispersion models for human exposure predictions in London.

PubMed

Beevers, Sean D; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Williams, Martin L; Kelly, Frank J; Ross Anderson, H; Carslaw, David C

2013-01-01

The London household survey has shown that people travel and are exposed to air pollutants differently. This argues for human exposure to be based upon space-time-activity data and spatio-temporal air quality predictions. For the latter, we have demonstrated the role that dispersion models can play by using two complimentary models, KCLurban, which gives source apportionment information, and Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ)-urban, which predicts hourly air quality. The KCLurban model is in close agreement with observations of NO(X), NO(2) and particulate matter (PM)(10/2.5), having a small normalised mean bias (-6% to 4%) and a large Index of Agreement (0.71-0.88). The temporal trends of NO(X) from the CMAQ-urban model are also in reasonable agreement with observations. Spatially, NO(2) predictions show that within 10's of metres of major roads, concentrations can range from approximately 10-20 p.p.b. up to 70 p.p.b. and that for PM(10/2.5) central London roadside concentrations are approximately double the suburban background concentrations. Exposure to different PM sources is important and we predict that brake wear-related PM(10) concentrations are approximately eight times greater near major roads than at suburban background locations. Temporally, we have shown that average NO(X) concentrations close to roads can range by a factor of approximately six between the early morning minimum and morning rush hour maximum periods. These results present strong arguments for the hybrid exposure model under development at King's and, in future, for in-building models and a model for the London Underground.

Dispersal of spores following a persistent random walk.

PubMed

Bicout, D J; Sache, I

2003-03-01

A model of a persistent random walk is used to describe the transport and deposition of the spore dispersal process. In this model, the spore particle flies along straight line trajectories, with constant speed v, which are interrupted by scattering, originating from interaction of spores with the field and wind variations, which randomly change its direction. To characterize the spore dispersal gradients, we have derived analytical expressions of the deposition probability epsilon (r|v) of airborne spores as a function of the distance r from the spore source in an infinite free space and in a disk of radius R with an absorbing edge that mimics an agricultural field surrounded with fields of nonhost plants and bare land. It is found in the free space that epsilon (r|v) approximately e(-alphar/l), with alpha a function of l(d)/l, where l and l(d) are the scattering and deposition mean free paths, respectively. In the disk, however, epsilon (r|v) is an infinite series of Bessel functions and, exhibits three regimes: absorbing (Rl(d)).

Quantifying distal dispersal and impact of volcanic ash from super-eruptions: an application to Campanian Ignimbrite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Folch, A.; Macedonio, G.; Giaccio, B.; Isaia, R.; Smith, V. C.

2012-04-01

Distal and ultra-distal volcanic ash dispersal during a super-eruption was reconstructed for the first time, providing insights into eruption dynamics and the impact of these gigantic events. A novel computational methodology was applied to the ash fallout of the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI), the most powerful volcanic eruption in Europe in the last 200 kyrs. The method uses a 3D time-dependent computational ash dispersion model, an ensemble of wind fields, and hundreds of thickness observations of the CI tephra deposit. Results reveal that 250-300 km3 of fallout material was produced during the eruption, blanketing a region of ~3.7 million km2 with more than 5 mm of fine ash. The model also indicates that the column height was ~37-40 km, and the eruption lasted 2-4 days. The eruption would have caused a volcanic winter within the coldest and driest Heinrich event. Fluorine-bearing leachate from the volcanic ash and acid rain would have further affected food sources and severely impacted Late Middle Paleolithic groups in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Direct splash dispersal prevails over indirect and subsequent spread during rains in Colletotrichum gloeosporioides infecting yams.

PubMed

Penet, Laurent; Guyader, Sébastien; Pétro, Dalila; Salles, Michèle; Bussière, François

2014-01-01

Plant pathogens have evolved many dispersal mechanisms, using biotic or abiotic vectors or a combination of the two. Rain splash dispersal is known from a variety of fungi, and can be an efficient driver of crop epidemics, with infectious strains propagating rapidly among often genetically homogenous neighboring plants. Splashing is nevertheless a local dispersal process and spores taking the droplet ride seldom move farther than a few decimeters. In this study, we assessed rain splash dispersal of conidia of the yam anthracnose agent, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, in an experimental setting using a rain simulator, with emphasis on the impact of soil contamination (i.e., effect of re-splashing events). Spores dispersed up to 50 cm from yam leaf inoculum sources, though with an exponential decrease with increasing distance. While few spores were dispersed via re-splash from spore-contaminated soil, the proportion deposited via this mechanism increased with increasing distance from the initial source. We found no soil contamination carryover from previous rains, suggesting that contamination via re-splashing from contaminated soils mainly occurred within single rains. We conclude that most dispersal occurs from direct splashing, with a weaker contribution of indirect dispersal via re-splash.

Direct Splash Dispersal Prevails over Indirect and Subsequent Spread during Rains in Colletotrichum gloeosporioides Infecting Yams

PubMed Central

Penet, Laurent; Guyader, Sébastien; Pétro, Dalila; Salles, Michèle; Bussière, François

2014-01-01

Plant pathogens have evolved many dispersal mechanisms, using biotic or abiotic vectors or a combination of the two. Rain splash dispersal is known from a variety of fungi, and can be an efficient driver of crop epidemics, with infectious strains propagating rapidly among often genetically homogenous neighboring plants. Splashing is nevertheless a local dispersal process and spores taking the droplet ride seldom move farther than a few decimeters. In this study, we assessed rain splash dispersal of conidia of the yam anthracnose agent, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, in an experimental setting using a rain simulator, with emphasis on the impact of soil contamination (i.e., effect of re-splashing events). Spores dispersed up to 50 cm from yam leaf inoculum sources, though with an exponential decrease with increasing distance. While few spores were dispersed via re-splash from spore-contaminated soil, the proportion deposited via this mechanism increased with increasing distance from the initial source. We found no soil contamination carryover from previous rains, suggesting that contamination via re-splashing from contaminated soils mainly occurred within single rains. We conclude that most dispersal occurs from direct splashing, with a weaker contribution of indirect dispersal via re-splash. PMID:25532124

Preliminary Design and Experimental Investigation of a Novel Pneumatic Conveying Method to Disperse Natural Fibers in Thermoset Polymers

PubMed Central

Fahimian, Mahi; Kortschot, Mark; Sain, Mohini

2016-01-01

Natural fibers can be attractive reinforcing materials in thermosetting polymers due to their low density and high specific mechanical properties. Although the research effort in this area has grown substantially over the last 20 years, manufacturing technologies to make use of short natural fibers in high volume fraction composites; are still limited. Natural fibers, after retting and preprocessing, are discontinuous and easily form entangled bundles. Dispersion and mixing these short fibers with resin to manufacture high quality, high volume fraction composites presents a significant challenge. In this paper, a novel pneumatic design for dispersion of natural fibers in their original discontinuous form is described. In this design, compressed air is used to create vacuum to feed and convey fibres while breaking down fibre clumps and dispersing them in an aerosolized resin stream. Model composite materials, made using proof-of-concept prototype equipment, were imaged with both optical and X-ray tomography to evaluate fibre and resin dispersion. The images indicated that the system was capable of providing an intimate mixture of resin and detangled fibres for two different resin viscosities. The new pneumatic process could serve as the basis of a system to produce well-dispersed high-volume fraction composites containing discontinuous natural fibres drawn directly from a loosely packed source. PMID:28773670

Factors influencing the spatial extent of mobile source air pollution impacts: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ying; Levy, Jonathan I

2007-01-01

Background There has been growing interest among exposure assessors, epidemiologists, and policymakers in the concept of "hot spots", or more broadly, the "spatial extent" of impacts from traffic-related air pollutants. This review attempts to quantitatively synthesize findings about the spatial extent under various circumstances. Methods We include both the peer-reviewed literature and government reports, and focus on four significant air pollutants: carbon monoxide, benzene, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter (including both ultrafine particle counts and fine particle mass). From the identified studies, we extracted information about significant factors that would be hypothesized to influence the spatial extent within the study, such as the study type (e.g., monitoring, air dispersion modeling, GIS-based epidemiological studies), focus on concentrations or health risks, pollutant under study, background concentration, emission rate, and meteorological factors, as well as the study's implicit or explicit definition of spatial extent. We supplement this meta-analysis with results from some illustrative atmospheric dispersion modeling. Results We found that pollutant characteristics and background concentrations best explained variability in previously published spatial extent estimates, with a modifying influence of local meteorology, once some extreme values based on health risk estimates were removed from the analysis. As hypothesized, inert pollutants with high background concentrations had the largest spatial extent (often demonstrating no significant gradient), and pollutants formed in near-source chemical reactions (e.g., nitrogen dioxide) had a larger spatial extent than pollutants depleted in near-source chemical reactions or removed through coagulation processes (e.g., nitrogen oxide and ultrafine particles). Our illustrative dispersion model illustrated the complex interplay of spatial extent definitions, emission rates, background concentrations, and meteorological conditions on spatial extent estimates even for non-reactive pollutants. Our findings indicate that, provided that a health risk threshold is not imposed, the spatial extent of impact for mobile sources reviewed in this study is on the order of 100–400 m for elemental carbon or particulate matter mass concentration (excluding background concentration), 200–500 m for nitrogen dioxide and 100–300 m for ultrafine particle counts. Conclusion First, to allow for meaningful comparisons across studies, it is important to state the definition of spatial extent explicitly, including the comparison method, threshold values, and whether background concentration is included. Second, the observation that the spatial extent is generally within a few hundred meters for highway or city roads demonstrates the need for high resolution modeling near the source. Finally, our findings emphasize that policymakers should be able to develop reasonable estimates of the "zone of influence" of mobile sources, provided that they can clarify the pollutant of concern, the general site characteristics, and the underlying definition of spatial extent that they wish to utilize. PMID:17519039

RAiSE II: resolved spectral evolution in radio AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Ross J.; Rogers, Jonathan G.; Shabala, Stanislav S.; Krause, Martin G. H.

2018-01-01

The active galactic nuclei (AGN) lobe radio luminosities modelled in hydrodynamical simulations and most analytical models do not address the redistribution of the electron energies due to adiabatic expansion, synchrotron radiation and inverse-Compton scattering of cosmic microwave background photons. We present a synchrotron emissivity model for resolved sources that includes a full treatment of the loss mechanisms spatially across the lobe, and apply it to a dynamical radio source model with known pressure and volume expansion rates. The bulk flow and dispersion of discrete electron packets is represented by tracer fields in hydrodynamical simulations; we show that the mixing of different aged electrons strongly affects the spectrum at each point of the radio map in high-powered Fanaroff & Riley type II (FR-II) sources. The inclusion of this mixing leads to a factor of a few discrepancy between the spectral age measured using impulsive injection models (e.g. JP model) and the dynamical age. The observable properties of radio sources are predicted to be strongly frequency dependent: FR-II lobes are expected to appear more elongated at higher frequencies, while jetted FR-I sources appear less extended. The emerging FR0 class of radio sources, comprising gigahertz peaked and compact steep spectrum sources, can potentially be explained by a population of low-powered FR-Is. The extended emission from such sources is shown to be undetectable for objects within a few orders of magnitude of the survey detection limit and to not contribute to the curvature of the radio spectral energy distribution.

Near-road air pollutant concentrations of CO and PM 2.5: A comparison of MOBILE6.2/CALINE4 and generalized additive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

2010-05-01

The contribution of vehicular traffic to air pollutant concentrations is often difficult to establish. This paper utilizes both time-series and simulation models to estimate vehicle contributions to pollutant levels near roadways. The time-series model used generalized additive models (GAMs) and fitted pollutant observations to traffic counts and meteorological variables. A one year period (2004) was analyzed on a seasonal basis using hourly measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5) monitored near a major highway in Detroit, Michigan, along with hourly traffic counts and local meteorological data. Traffic counts showed statistically significant and approximately linear relationships with CO concentrations in fall, and piecewise linear relationships in spring, summer and winter. The same period was simulated using emission and dispersion models (Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model/MOBILE6.2; California Line Source Dispersion Model/CALINE4). CO emissions derived from the GAM were similar, on average, to those estimated by MOBILE6.2. The same analyses for PM 2.5 showed that GAM emission estimates were much higher (by 4-5 times) than the dispersion model results, and that the traffic-PM 2.5 relationship varied seasonally. This analysis suggests that the simulation model performed reasonably well for CO, but it significantly underestimated PM 2.5 concentrations, a likely result of underestimating PM 2.5 emission factors. Comparisons between statistical and simulation models can help identify model deficiencies and improve estimates of vehicle emissions and near-road air quality.

Dynamic occupancy models for explicit colonization processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday

2016-01-01

The dynamic, multi-season occupancy model framework has become a popular tool for modeling open populations with occupancies that change over time through local colonizations and extinctions. However, few versions of the model relate these probabilities to the occupancies of neighboring sites or patches. We present a modeling framework that incorporates this information and is capable of describing a wide variety of spatiotemporal colonization and extinction processes. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a simple set of small-scale rules describing how the process evolves. The result is a dynamic process that can account for complicated large-scale features. In our model, a site is more likely to be colonized if more of its neighbors were previously occupied and if it provides more appealing environmental characteristics than its neighboring sites. Additionally, a site without occupied neighbors may also become colonized through the inclusion of a long-distance dispersal process. Although similar model specifications have been developed for epidemiological applications, ours formally accounts for detectability using the well-known occupancy modeling framework. After demonstrating the viability and potential of this new form of dynamic occupancy model in a simulation study, we use it to obtain inference for the ongoing Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) invasion in South Africa. Our results suggest that the Common Myna continues to enlarge its distribution and its spread via short distance movement, rather than long-distance dispersal. Overall, this new modeling framework provides a powerful tool for managers examining the drivers of colonization including short- vs. long-distance dispersal, habitat quality, and distance from source populations.

Turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to airborne disease transmission between laboratory animals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halloran, Siobhan; Ristenpart, William

2013-11-01

Virologists and other researchers who test pathogens for airborne disease transmissibility often place a test animal downstream from an inoculated animal and later determine whether the test animal became infected. Despite the crucial role of the airflow in pathogen transmission between the animals, to date the infectious disease community has paid little attention to the effect of airspeed or turbulent intensity on the probability of transmission. Here we present measurements of the turbulent dispersivity under conditions relevant to experimental tests of airborne disease transmissibility between laboratory animals. We used time lapse photography to visualize the downstream transport and turbulent dispersion of smoke particulates released from a point source downstream of an axial fan, thus mimicking the release and transport of expiratory aerosols exhaled by an inoculated animal. We show that for fan-generated turbulence the plume width is invariant with the mean airspeed and, close to the point source, increases linearly with downstream position. Importantly, the turbulent dispersivity is insensitive to the presence of meshes placed downstream from the point source, indicating that the fan length scale dictates the turbulent intensity and corresponding dispersivity.

Power System Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Haruhito

Electric power generation that relies on various sources as the primary sources of energy is expected to bring down CO2 emissions levels to support the overall strategy to curb global warming. Accordingly, utilities are moving towards integrating more renewable sources for generation, mostly dispersed, and adopting Smart Grid Technologies for system control. In order to construct, operate, and maintain power systems stably and economically in such background, thorough understanding about the characteristics of power systems and their components is essential. This paper presents modeling and simulation techniques available for the analysis of critical aspects such as thermal capacity, stability, voltage stability, and frequency dynamics, vital for the stable operation of power systems.

Dispersal of Transgenes through Maize Seed Systems in Mexico

PubMed Central

Dyer, George A.; Serratos-Hernández, J. Antonio; Perales, Hugo R.; Gepts, Paul; Piñeyro-Nelson, Alma; Chávez, Angeles; Salinas-Arreortua, Noé; Yúnez-Naude, Antonio; Taylor, J. Edward; Alvarez-Buylla, Elena R.

2009-01-01

Objectives Current models of transgene dispersal focus on gene flow via pollen while neglecting seed, a vital vehicle for gene flow in centers of crop origin and diversity. We analyze the dispersal of maize transgenes via seeds in Mexico, the crop's cradle. Methods We use immunoassays (ELISA) to screen for the activity of recombinant proteins in a nationwide sample of farmer seed stocks. We estimate critical parameters of seed population dynamics using household survey data and combine these estimates with analytical results to examine presumed sources and mechanisms of dispersal. Results Recombinant proteins Cry1Ab/Ac and CP4/EPSPS were found in 3.1% and 1.8% of samples, respectively. They are most abundant in southeast Mexico but also present in the west-central region. Diffusion of seed and grain imported from the United States might explain the frequency and distribution of transgenes in west-central Mexico but not in the southeast. Conclusions Understanding the potential for transgene survival and dispersal should help design methods to regulate the diffusion of germplasm into local seed stocks. Further research is needed on the interactions between formal and informal seed systems and grain markets in centers of crop origin and diversification. PMID:19503610

Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

PubMed Central

Coffey, Patrick S.

2014-01-01

Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

Use of Remote Sensing and Dust Modelling to Evaluate Ecosystem Phenology and Pollen Dispersal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Watts, Carol; Shaw, Patrick

2007-01-01

The impact of pollen release and downwind concentrations can be evaluated utilizing remote sensing. Previous NASA studies have addressed airborne dust prediction systems PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) which have determined that pollen forecasts and simulations are possible. By adapting the deterministic dust model (as an in-line system with the National Weather Service operational forecast model) used in PHAiRS to simulate downwind dispersal of pollen, initializing the model with pollen source regions from MODIS, assessing the results a rapid prototype concept can be produced. We will present the results of our effort to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details or phenology and meteorology and their dependencies, and the promise of a credible real time forecast system to support public health and agricultural science and service. Previous studies have been done with PHAiRS research, the use of NASA data, the dust model and the PHAiRS potential to improve public health and environmental services long into the future.

Emulation and Sobol' sensitivity analysis of an atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Sylvain; Mallet, Vivien; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne

2016-04-01

Simulations of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides involve large uncertainties originating from the limited knowledge of meteorological input data, composition, amount and timing of emissions, and some model parameters. The estimation of these uncertainties is an essential complement to modeling for decision making in case of an accidental release. We have studied the relative influence of a set of uncertain inputs on several outputs from the Eulerian model Polyphemus/Polair3D on the Fukushima case. We chose to use the variance-based sensitivity analysis method of Sobol'. This method requires a large number of model evaluations which was not achievable directly due to the high computational cost of Polyphemus/Polair3D. To circumvent this issue, we built a mathematical approximation of the model using Gaussian process emulation. We observed that aggregated outputs are mainly driven by the amount of emitted radionuclides, while local outputs are mostly sensitive to wind perturbations. The release height is notably influential, but only in the vicinity of the source. Finally, averaging either spatially or temporally tends to cancel out interactions between uncertain inputs.

The thermochemistry of london dispersion-driven transition metal reactions: getting the 'right answer for the right reason'.

PubMed

Hansen, Andreas; Bannwarth, Christoph; Grimme, Stefan; Petrović, Predrag; Werlé, Christophe; Djukic, Jean-Pierre

2014-10-01

Reliable thermochemical measurements and theoretical predictions for reactions involving large transition metal complexes in which long-range intramolecular London dispersion interactions contribute significantly to their stabilization are still a challenge, particularly for reactions in solution. As an illustrative and chemically important example, two reactions are investigated where a large dipalladium complex is quenched by bulky phosphane ligands (triphenylphosphane and tricyclohexylphosphane). Reaction enthalpies and Gibbs free energies were measured by isotherm titration calorimetry (ITC) and theoretically 'back-corrected' to yield 0 K gas-phase reaction energies (ΔE). It is shown that the Gibbs free solvation energy calculated with continuum models represents the largest source of error in theoretical thermochemistry protocols. The ('back-corrected') experimental reaction energies were used to benchmark (dispersion-corrected) density functional and wave function theory methods. Particularly, we investigated whether the atom-pairwise D3 dispersion correction is also accurate for transition metal chemistry, and how accurately recently developed local coupled-cluster methods describe the important long-range electron correlation contributions. Both, modern dispersion-corrected density functions (e.g., PW6B95-D3(BJ) or B3LYP-NL), as well as the now possible DLPNO-CCSD(T) calculations, are within the 'experimental' gas phase reference value. The remaining uncertainties of 2-3 kcal mol(-1) can be essentially attributed to the solvation models. Hence, the future for accurate theoretical thermochemistry of large transition metal reactions in solution is very promising.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadle, R.D.

A previously published 2-D numerical model of the global dispersion of an eruption cloud in the stratosphere as a function of time assumed an instantaneous injection of the eruption cloud (the source function). New calculations show that the dispersion rate is quite insensitive to the manner of introducing the source function into the model, including spreading the eruption time over 10 days. Results obtained by flying through the eruption clouds from explosive volcanoes in Guatemala indicated that most of the sulfur in such clouds is SO/sub 2/. If, as is generally believed, SO/sub 2/ reacts with OH in the stratosphere,more » leading to the production of H/sub 2/SO/sub 4/ droplets, high explosive eruptions can deplete the stratosphere of OH for long time periods. The OH is thus controlled by the rate of O(/sup 1/D) formation from ozone. By using the results from the 2-D dispersion model referred to above applied to the eruption cloud from the 1953 Agung eruption, and chemical kinetic rate constants, the 'e folding' residence time for sulfur dioxide conversion to sulfuric acid was estimated to be about 300 days. The Guatemala studies showed that the eruption clouds from explosive volcanoes contain large amounts of HCl. Unless much of this HCl is removed by rain accompanying the eruption, this HCl might be expected to have a marked influence on stratospheric chemistry as a result of the reaction OH+HCl..-->..H/sub 2/O+Cl. The volcanic HCl will probably remove OH much less rapidly than will SO/sub 2/, and if the OH concentration is greatly decreased by the SO/sub 2/, the above reaction may be too slow to be important.« less

Fast and wide tuning wavelength-swept source based on dispersion-tuned fiber optical parametric oscillator.

PubMed

Zhou, Yue; Cheung, Kim K Y; Li, Qin; Yang, Sigang; Chui, P C; Wong, Kenneth K Y

2010-07-15

We demonstrate a dispersion-tuned fiber optical parametric oscillator (FOPO)-based swept source with a sweep rate of 40 kHz and a wavelength tuning range of 109 nm around 1550 nm. The cumulative speed exceeds 4,000,000 nm/s. The FOPO is pumped by a sinusoidally modulated pump, which is driven by a clock sweeping linearly from 1 to 1.0006 GHz. A spool of dispersion-compensating fiber is added inside the cavity to perform dispersion tuning. The instantaneous linewidth is 0.8 nm without the use of any wavelength selective element inside the cavity. 1 GHz pulses with pulse width of 150 ps are generated.

Predicting spread of invasive exotic plants into de-watered reservoirs following dam removal on the Elwha River, Olympic National Park, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Andrea; Torgersen, Christian E.; Chenoweth, Joshua; Beirne, Katherine; Acker, Steve

2011-01-01

The National Park Service is planning to start the restoration of the Elwha River ecosystem in Olympic National Park by removing two high head dams beginning in 2011. The potential for dispersal of exotic plants into dewatered reservoirs following dam removal, which would inhibit restoration of native vegetation, is of great concern. We focused on predicting long-distance dispersal of invasive exotic plants rather than diffusive spread because local sources of invasive species have been surveyed. We included the long-distance dispersal vectors: wind, water, birds, beavers, ungulates, and users of roads and trails. Using information about the current distribution of invasive species from two surveys, various geographic information system techniques and models, and statistical methods, we identified high-priority areas for Park staff to treat prior to dam removal, and areas of the dewatered reservoirs at risk after dam removal.

A Numerical Study on Characteristics of Flow and Reactive Pollutant Dispersion in Step‒up Street Canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E. R.; Kim, J.

2014-12-01

For decades, many metro‒ and/or mega‒cities have grown and densities of population and building have increased. Because pollutants released from sources near ground surface such as vehicles are not easy to escape from street canyons which are spaces between buildings standing along streets pedestrians, drivers and residents are likely to be exposed to high concentrations of hazardous pollutants. Therefore, it is important to understand characteristics of flow and pollutant dispersion in street canyons. In this study, step‒up street canyons with higher downwind buildings are considered for understanding flow and reactive pollutants' dispersion characteristics there as a basic step to understand the characteristics in wider urban areas. This study used a CFD model coupled to a chemistry module. Detailed flow and air pollutant concentration are analyzed in step‒up street canyons with different upwind building heights.

A method for defining down-wind evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving toxic propellant spills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siewert, R. D.

1972-01-01

Evacuation areas for accidental spills of toxic propellants along rail and highway shipping routes are defined to help local authorities reduce risks to people from excessive vapor concentrations. These criteria along with other emergency information are shown in propellant spill cards. The evacuation areas are based on current best estimates of propellant evaporation rates from various areas of spill puddles. These rates are used together with a continuous point-source, bi-normal model of plume dispersion. The rate at which the toxic plume disperses is based on a neutral atmospheric condition. This condition, which results in slow plume dispersion, represents the widest range of weather parameters which could occur during the day and nighttime periods. Evacuation areas are defined by the ground level boundaries of the plume within which the concentrations exceed the toxic Threshold Limit Value (TLV) or in some cases the Emergency Exposure Limit (EEL).

Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhen; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik

2014-09-01

In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO 2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO 2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developedmore » a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO 2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO 2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF assimilated meteorology fields, making it possible to perform a hybrid simulation, in which the Eulerian model (CMAQ) can be used to compute the initial condi- tion needed by the Lagrangian model, while the source-receptor relationships for a large state vector can be efficiently computed using the Lagrangian model in its backward mode. In ad- dition, CMAQ has a complete treatment of atmospheric chemistry of a suite of traditional air pollutants, many of which could help attribute GHGs from different sources. The inference of emissions sources using atmospheric observations is cast as a Bayesian model calibration problem, which is solved using a variety of Bayesian techniques, such as the bias-enhanced Bayesian inference algorithm, which accounts for the intrinsic model deficiency, Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate model evaluation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Karhunen-Lo %60 eve (KL) Expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the state space. We have established an atmospheric measurement site in Livermore, CA and are collect- ing continuous measurements of CO 2 , CH 4 and other species that are typically co-emitted with these GHGs. Measurements of co-emitted species can assist in attributing the GHGs to different emissions sectors. Automatic calibrations using traceable standards are performed routinely for the gas-phase measurements. We are also collecting standard meteorological data at the Livermore site as well as planetary boundary height measurements using a ceilometer. The location of the measurement site is well suited to sample air transported between the San Francisco Bay area and the California Central Valley.« less

AMR Code Simulations of Turbulent Combustion in Confined and Unconfined SDF Explosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhl, A L; Bell, J B; Beckner, V

2009-05-29

A heterogeneous continuum model is proposed to describe the dispersion and combustion of an aluminum particle cloud in an explosion. It combines the gas-dynamic conservation laws for the gas phase with a continuum model for the dispersed phase, as formulated by Nigmatulin. Inter-phase mass, momentum and energy exchange are prescribed by phenomenological models. It incorporates a combustion model based on the mass conservation laws for fuel, air and products; source/sink terms are treated in the fast-chemistry limit appropriate for such gas dynamic fields, along with a model for mass transfer from the particle phase to the gas. The model takesmore » into account both the afterburning of the detonation products of the booster with air, and the combustion of the Al particles with air. The model equations were integrated by high-order Godunov schemes for both the gas and particle phases. Numerical simulations of the explosion fields from 1.5-g Shock-Dispersed-Fuel (SDF) charge in a 6.6 liter calorimeter were used to validate the combustion model. Then the model was applied to 10-kg Al-SDF explosions in a vented two-room structure and in an unconfined height-of-burst explosion. Computed pressure histories are in reasonable (but not perfect) agreement with measured waveforms. Differences are caused by physical-chemical kinetic effects of particle combustion which induce ignition delays in the initial reactive blast wave and quenching of reactions at late times. Current simulations give initial insights into such modeling issues.« less

The statistical evaluation and comparison of ADMS-Urban model for the prediction of nitrogen dioxide with air quality monitoring network.

PubMed

Dėdelė, Audrius; Miškinytė, Auksė

2015-09-01

In many countries, road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollution associated with adverse effects on human health and environment. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is considered to be a measure of traffic-related air pollution, with concentrations tending to be higher near highways, along busy roads, and in the city centers, and the exceedances are mainly observed at measurement stations located close to traffic. In order to assess the air quality in the city and the air pollution impact on public health, air quality models are used. However, firstly, before the model can be used for these purposes, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of the dispersion modelling as one of the most widely used method. The monitoring and dispersion modelling are two components of air quality monitoring system (AQMS), in which statistical comparison was made in this research. The evaluation of the Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System (ADMS-Urban) was made by comparing monthly modelled NO2 concentrations with the data of continuous air quality monitoring stations in Kaunas city. The statistical measures of model performance were calculated for annual and monthly concentrations of NO2 for each monitoring station site. The spatial analysis was made using geographic information systems (GIS). The calculation of statistical parameters indicated a good ADMS-Urban model performance for the prediction of NO2. The results of this study showed that the agreement of modelled values and observations was better for traffic monitoring stations compared to the background and residential stations.

The Dispersion of Fast Radio Bursts from a Structured Intergalactic Medium at Redshifts z < 1.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shull, J. Michael; Danforth, Charles W.

2018-01-01

We analyze the sources of free electrons that produce the large dispersion measures, {DM}≈ 300{--}1600 (in units of cm‑3 pc), observed toward fast radio bursts (FRBs). Individual galaxies typically produce {DM}∼ 25{--}60 {{cm}}-3 {pc} from ionized gas in their disk, disk-halo interface, and circumgalactic medium. Toward an FRB source at redshift z, a homogeneous intergalactic medium (IGM) containing a fraction {f}{IGM} of cosmological baryons will produce {DM}=(935 {{cm}}-3 {pc}){f}{IGM} {h}70-1I(z), where I{(z)=(2/3{{{Ω }}}m)[\\{{{{Ω }}}m(1+z)}3+{{{Ω }}}{{Λ }}\\}{}1/2-1]. A structured IGM of photoionized Lyα absorbers in the cosmic web produces similar dispersion, modeled from the observed distribution, {f}b(N,z), of H I (Lyα-forest) absorbers in column density and redshift with ionization corrections and scaling relations from cosmological simulations. An analytic formula for DM(z) applied to observed FRB dispersions suggests that {z}{FRB}≈ 0.2{--}1.5 for an IGM containing a significant baryon fraction, {f}{IGM}=0.6+/- 0.1. Future surveys of the statistical distribution, DM(z), of FRBs identified with specific galaxies and redshifts can be used to calibrate the IGM baryon fraction and distribution of Lyα absorbers. Fluctuations in DM at the level ±10 cm‑3 pc will arise from filaments and voids in the cosmic web.

Viscoelastic characterization of dispersive media by inversion of a general wave propagation model in optical coherence elastography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvietcovich, Fernando; Rolland, Jannick P.; Grygotis, Emma; Wayson, Sarah; Helguera, Maria; Dalecki, Diane; Parker, Kevin J.

2018-02-01

Determining the mechanical properties of tissue such as elasticity and viscosity is fundamental for better understanding and assessment of pathological and physiological processes. Dynamic optical coherence elastography uses shear/surface wave propagation to estimate frequency-dependent wave speed and Young's modulus. However, for dispersive tissues, the displacement pulse is highly damped and distorted during propagation, diminishing the effectiveness of peak tracking approaches. The majority of methods used to determine mechanical properties assume a rheological model of tissue for the calculation of viscoelastic parameters. Further, plane wave propagation is sometimes assumed which contributes to estimation errors. To overcome these limitations, we invert a general wave propagation model which incorporates (1) the initial force shape of the excitation pulse in the space-time field, (2) wave speed dispersion, (3) wave attenuation caused by the material properties of the sample, (4) wave spreading caused by the outward cylindrical propagation of the wavefronts, and (5) the rheological-independent estimation of the dispersive medium. Experiments were conducted in elastic and viscous tissue-mimicking phantoms by producing a Gaussian push using acoustic radiation force excitation, and measuring the wave propagation using a swept-source frequency domain optical coherence tomography system. Results confirm the effectiveness of the inversion method in estimating viscoelasticity in both the viscous and elastic phantoms when compared to mechanical measurements. Finally, the viscoelastic characterization of collagen hydrogels was conducted. Preliminary results indicate a relationship between collagen concentration and viscoelastic parameters which is important for tissue engineering applications.

Proper source-receiver distance to obtain surface wave group velocity profile for flaw detection inside a concrete plate-like structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chia-Chi; Hsu, Keng-Tsang; Wang, Hong-Hua; Chiang, Chih-Hung

2018-04-01

A technique leads to rapid flaw detection for concrete plate-like structure is realized by obtaining the group velocity dispersion profile of the fundamental antisymmetric mode of the plate (A0 mode). The depth of a delaminating crack, honeycomb or depth of weak surface layer on top of the sound concrete can all be evaluated by the change of velocity in the dispersion profile of A0 mode at the wavelength about twice of the depth. The testing method involves obtaining the A0 group slowness spectrogram produced by single test with one receiver placed away from the source of impact. The image of the spectrogram is obtained by Short-Time Fourier Transfer (STFT) and enhanced by reassigned method. The choice of window length in STFT and the ratio between impactor-receiver distance and plate thickness, d/T, is essential as the dominant surface wave response may simply a non-dispersive Rayleigh wave or following the A0 or S0 (fundamental symmetric mode) modal dispersion curve. In this study, the axisymmetric finite element model of a plate subject to transient load was constructed. The nodal vertical velocity waveforms for various distances were analyzed using various STFT window lengths. The results show, for certain d/T ratio, S0 mode would be dominant when longer window is used. The best window lengths for a d/T ratio as well as the corresponding largest wavelength which follows the A0 theoretical dispersion curve or Rayleigh wave were summarized. The information allows people to determine the proper impactor-receiver distance and analyzing window to successfully detect the depth of flaws inside a plate.

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

Improving seismic crustal models in the Corinth Gulf, Greece and estimating source depth using PL-waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vackář, Jiří; Zahradník, Jiří

2013-04-01

A recent shallow earthquake in the Corinth Gulf, Greece (Mw 5.3, January 18, 2010; Sokos et al., Tectonophysics 2012) generated unusual long-period waves (periods > 5 seconds), well recorded at several near-regional stations between the P - and S-wave arrival. The 5-second period, being significantly longer than the source duration, indicates a structural effect. The wave is similar to PL-wave or Pnl-wave, but with shorter periods and observed in much closer distances (ranging from 30 to 200 km). For theoretical description of the observed wave, structural model is required. No existing regional crustal model generates that wave, so we need to find another model, better in terms of the PL-wave existence and strength. We find such models by full waveform inversion using the subset of stations with strong PL-wave. The Discrete Wavenumber method (Bouchon, 1981; Coutant 1989) is used for forward problem and the Neighborhood Algorithm (Sambridge, 1999) for stochastic search (more details in poster by V. Plicka and J. Zahradník). We obtain a suite of models well fitting synthetic seismograms and use some of these models to evaluate dependence of the studied waves on receiver distance and azimuth as well as dependence on source depth. We compare real and synthetic dispersion curves (derived from synthetic seismograms) as an independent validation of found model and discuss limitations of using dispersion curves for these cases. We also relocated the event in the new model. Then we calculate the wavefield by two other methods: modal summation and ray theory to better understand the nature of the PL-wave. Finally, we discuss agreement of found models with published crustal models in the region. The full waveform inversion for structural parameters seems to be powerful tool for improving seismic source modeling in cases we do not have accurate structure model of studied area. We also show that the PL-wave strength has a potential to precise the earthquake depth. Acknowledgement: Seismograms of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network were used, including the stations co-operated by the Charles University in Prague. The research was financially supported from the following grants in the Czech Republic: GACR 210/11/0854 and MSM 0021620860.

Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop ( Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, Amandine; Dumas, Franck; Foveau, Aurélie; Foucher, Eric; Thiébaut, Eric

2013-06-01

The king scallop ( Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000-2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a minor role on larval distribution at settlement and retention rates. The analysis of the connectivity between subpopulations within each bay allows identifying the main sources of larvae which depend on both the characteristics of local hydrodynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the reproductive outputs.

Subcarrier multiplexing tolerant dispersion transmission system employing optical broadband sources.

PubMed

Grassi, Fulvio; Mora, José; Ortega, Beatriz; Capmany, José

2009-03-16

This paper presents a novel SCM optical transmission system for next-generation WDM-PONs combining broadband optical sources and a Mach-Zehnder interferometric structure. The approach leeds to transport RF signals up to 50 GHz being compatible with RoF systems since a second configuration has been proposed in order to overcome dispersion carrier suppression effect using DSB modulation. The theoretical analysis validates the potentiality of the system also considering the effects of the dispersion slope over the transmission window. (c) 2009 Optical Society of America

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Modelling Nitrogen Oxides in Los Angeles Using a Hybrid Dispersion/Land Use Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilton, Darren C.

The goal of this dissertation is to develop models capable of predicting long term annual average NOx concentrations in urban areas. Predictions from simple meteorological dispersion models and seasonal proxies for NO2 oxidation were included as covariates in a land use regression (LUR) model for NOx in Los Angeles, CA. The NO x measurements were obtained from a comprehensive measurement campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Air Pollution Study (MESA Air). Simple land use regression models were initially developed using a suite of GIS-derived land use variables developed from various buffer sizes (R²=0.15). Caline3, a simple steady-state Gaussian line source model, was initially incorporated into the land-use regression framework. The addition of this spatio-temporally varying Caline3 covariate improved the simple LUR model predictions. The extent of improvement was much more pronounced for models based solely on the summer measurements (simple LUR: R²=0.45; Caline3/LUR: R²=0.70), than it was for models based on all seasons (R²=0.20). We then used a Lagrangian dispersion model to convert static land use covariates for population density, commercial/industrial area into spatially and temporally varying covariates. The inclusion of these covariates resulted in significant improvement in model prediction (R²=0.57). In addition to the dispersion model covariates described above, a two-week average value of daily peak-hour ozone was included as a surrogate of the oxidation of NO2 during the different sampling periods. This additional covariate further improved overall model performance for all models. The best model by 10-fold cross validation (R²=0.73) contained the Caline3 prediction, a static covariate for length of A3 roads within 50 meters, the Calpuff-adjusted covariates derived from both population density and industrial/commercial land area, and the ozone covariate. This model was tested against annual average NOx concentrations from an independent data set from the EPA's Air Quality System (AQS) and MESA Air fixed site monitors, and performed very well (R²=0.82).

Poisson Regression Analysis of Illness and Injury Surveillance Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frome E.L., Watkins J.P., Ellis E.D.

2012-12-12

The Department of Energy (DOE) uses illness and injury surveillance to monitor morbidity and assess the overall health of the work force. Data collected from each participating site include health events and a roster file with demographic information. The source data files are maintained in a relational data base, and are used to obtain stratified tables of health event counts and person time at risk that serve as the starting point for Poisson regression analysis. The explanatory variables that define these tables are age, gender, occupational group, and time. Typical response variables of interest are the number of absences duemore » to illness or injury, i.e., the response variable is a count. Poisson regression methods are used to describe the effect of the explanatory variables on the health event rates using a log-linear main effects model. Results of fitting the main effects model are summarized in a tabular and graphical form and interpretation of model parameters is provided. An analysis of deviance table is used to evaluate the importance of each of the explanatory variables on the event rate of interest and to determine if interaction terms should be considered in the analysis. Although Poisson regression methods are widely used in the analysis of count data, there are situations in which over-dispersion occurs. This could be due to lack-of-fit of the regression model, extra-Poisson variation, or both. A score test statistic and regression diagnostics are used to identify over-dispersion. A quasi-likelihood method of moments procedure is used to evaluate and adjust for extra-Poisson variation when necessary. Two examples are presented using respiratory disease absence rates at two DOE sites to illustrate the methods and interpretation of the results. In the first example the Poisson main effects model is adequate. In the second example the score test indicates considerable over-dispersion and a more detailed analysis attributes the over-dispersion to extra-Poisson variation. The R open source software environment for statistical computing and graphics is used for analysis. Additional details about R and the data that were used in this report are provided in an Appendix. Information on how to obtain R and utility functions that can be used to duplicate results in this report are provided.« less

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau

2018-03-01

Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated with the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on offline coupled modeling systems in which meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated with the offline modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the offline coupling strategy are compared against those from an online forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors due to the offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional offline forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios in which the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for real-time advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally efficient online dispersal models.

Metaphors and models: the ASR bubble in the Floridan aquifer.

PubMed

Vacher, H L; Hutchings, William C; Budd, David A

2006-01-01

Studies at the intersection of cognitive science and linguistics have revealed the crucial role that metaphors play in shaping our thoughts about phenomena we cannot see. According to the domains interaction theory of cognition, a metaphoric expression sets up mappings between a target domain that we wish to understand and a familiar source domain. The source domain contains elements ("commonplaces") that we manipulate mentally, like parts of an analogue model, to illuminate the target domain. This paper applies the structure of domains interaction theory to analyze the dynamics of a metaphor in hydrogeology: the so-called bubble formed by water injected into an aquifer during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). Of the four commonplaces of bubbles--(1) they are discrete; (2) they are geometrically simple; (3) they rise; and (4) they burst--we focus on the first two using both displacement and dispersion (tracer) models for both homogeneous and heterogeneous storage zones patterned from geological studies of the Suwannee Limestone of Sarasota County, Florida. The displacement model easily shows that "bottle brush" better represents the geometric complexity predicted from the known and inferred heterogeneity. There is virtually no difference, however, in the prediction of recovery efficiency using the dispersion model for a bubble (homogeneous flow zone) vs. bottle brush (heterogeneous flow zone). On the other hand, only the bottle brush reveals that unrecovered tracer is located preferentially in the low-permeability layers that lie adjacent to high-permeability channels in the flow zones.

DNA Fingerprinting Validates Seed Dispersal Curves from Observational Studies in the Neotropical Legume Parkia

PubMed Central

Heymann, Eckhard W.; Lüttmann, Kathrin; Michalczyk, Inga M.; Saboya, Pedro Pablo Pinedo; Ziegenhagen, Birgit; Bialozyt, Ronald

2012-01-01

Background Determining the distances over which seeds are dispersed is a crucial component for examining spatial patterns of seed dispersal and their consequences for plant reproductive success and population structure. However, following the fate of individual seeds after removal from the source tree till deposition at a distant place is generally extremely difficult. Here we provide a comparison of observationally and genetically determined seed dispersal distances and dispersal curves in a Neotropical animal-plant system. Methodology/Principal Findings In a field study on the dispersal of seeds of three Parkia (Fabaceae) species by two Neotropical primate species, Saguinus fuscicollis and Saguinus mystax, in Peruvian Amazonia, we observationally determined dispersal distances. These dispersal distances were then validated through DNA fingerprinting, by matching DNA from the maternally derived seed coat to DNA from potential source trees. We found that dispersal distances are strongly right-skewed, and that distributions obtained through observational and genetic methods and fitted distributions do not differ significantly from each other. Conclusions/Significance Our study showed that seed dispersal distances can be reliably estimated through observational methods when a strict criterion for inclusion of seeds is observed. Furthermore, dispersal distances produced by the two primate species indicated that these primates fulfil one of the criteria for efficient seed dispersers. Finally, our study demonstrated that DNA extraction methods so far employed for temperate plant species can be successfully used for hard-seeded tropical plants. PMID:22514748

Electrical characteristics of silicon percolating nanonet-based field effect transistors in the presence of dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazimajou, T.; Legallais, M.; Mouis, M.; Ternon, C.; Salem, B.; Ghibaudo, G.

2018-05-01

We studied the current-voltage characteristics of percolating networks of silicon nanowires (nanonets), operated in back-gated transistor mode, for future use as gas or biosensors. These devices featured P-type field-effect characteristics. It was found that a Lambert W function-based compact model could be used for parameter extraction of electrical parameters such as apparent low field mobility, threshold voltage and subthreshold slope ideality factor. Their variation with channel length and nanowire density was related to the change of conduction regime from direct source/drain connection by parallel nanowires to percolating channels. Experimental results could be related in part to an influence of the threshold voltage dispersion of individual nanowires.

Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic, air and stormwater modelling.

PubMed

Fallah Shorshani, Masoud; Bonhomme, Céline; Petrucci, Guido; André, Michel; Seigneur, Christian

2014-04-01

Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.

Adaptive framework to better characterize errors of apriori fluxes and observational residuals in a Bayesian setup for the urban flux inversions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Prasad, K.; Karion, A.; Mueller, K.; Gourdji, S.; Martin, C.; Whetstone, J. R.

2017-12-01

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) supports the North-East Corridor Baltimore Washington (NEC-B/W) project and Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) aiming to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions as well as their uncertainties. These projects employ different flux estimation methods including top-down inversion approaches. The traditional Bayesian inversion method estimates emission distributions by updating prior information using atmospheric observations of Green House Gases (GHG) coupled to an atmospheric and dispersion model. The magnitude of the update is dependent upon the observed enhancement along with the assumed errors such as those associated with prior information and the atmospheric transport and dispersion model. These errors are specified within the inversion covariance matrices. The assumed structure and magnitude of the specified errors can have large impact on the emission estimates from the inversion. The main objective of this work is to build a data-adaptive model for these covariances matrices. We construct a synthetic data experiment using a Kalman Filter inversion framework (Lopez et al., 2017) employing different configurations of transport and dispersion model and an assumed prior. Unlike previous traditional Bayesian approaches, we estimate posterior emissions using regularized sample covariance matrices associated with prior errors to investigate whether the structure of the matrices help to better recover our hypothetical true emissions. To incorporate transport model error, we use ensemble of transport models combined with space-time analytical covariance to construct a covariance that accounts for errors in space and time. A Kalman Filter is then run using these covariances along with Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the involved parameters. Preliminary results indicate that specifying sptio-temporally varying errors in the error covariances can improve the flux estimates and uncertainties. We also demonstrate that differences between the modeled and observed meteorology can be used to predict uncertainties associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling which can help improve the skill of an inversion at urban scales.

Spatial patterns of mobile source particulate matter emissions-to-exposure relationships across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Susan L.; Wilson, Andrew M.; Spengler, John D.; Levy, Jonathan I.

Assessing the public health benefits from air pollution control measures is assisted by understanding the relationship between mobile source emissions and subsequent fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) exposure. Since this relationship varies by location, we characterized its magnitude and geographic distribution using the intake fraction (iF) concept. We considered emissions of primary PM 2.5 as well as particle precursors SO 2 and NO x from each of 3080 counties in the US. We modeled the relationship between these emissions and total US population exposure to PM 2.5, making use of a source-receptor matrix developed for health risk assessment. For primary PM 2.5, we found a median iF of 1.2 per million, with a range of 0.12-25. Half of the total exposure was reached by a median distance of 150 km from the county where mobile source emissions originated, though this spatial extent varied across counties from within the county borders to 1800 km away. For secondary ammonium sulfate from SO 2 emissions, the median iF was 0.41 per million (range: 0.050-10), versus 0.068 per million for secondary ammonium nitrate from NO x emissions (range: 0.00092-1.3). The median distance to half of the total exposure was greater for secondary PM 2.5 (450 km for sulfate, 390 km for nitrate). Regression analyses using exhaustive population predictors explained much of the variation in primary PM 2.5 iF ( R2=0.83) as well as secondary sulfate and nitrate iF ( R2=0.74 and 0.60), with greater near-source contribution for primary than for secondary PM 2.5. We conclude that long-range dispersion models with coarse geographic resolution are appropriate for risk assessments of secondary PM 2.5 or primary PM 2.5 emitted from mobile sources in rural areas, but that more resolved dispersion models are warranted for primary PM 2.5 in urban areas due to the substantial contribution of near-source populations.

Long-distance plant dispersal to North Atlantic islands: colonization routes and founder effect.

PubMed

Alsos, Inger Greve; Ehrich, Dorothee; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Solstad, Heidi; Westergaard, Kristine Bakke; Schönswetter, Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Birkeland, Siri; Elven, Reidar; Brochmann, Christian

2015-04-15

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) processes influence the founder effect on islands. We use genetic data for 25 Atlantic species and similarities among regional floras to analyse colonization, and test whether the genetic founder effect on five islands is associated with dispersal distance, island size and species traits. Most species colonized postglacially via multiple dispersal events from several source regions situated 280 to >3000 km away, and often not from the closest ones. A strong founder effect was observed for insect-pollinated mixed maters, and it increased with dispersal distance and decreased with island size in accordance with the theory of island biogeography. Only a minor founder effect was observed for wind-pollinated outcrossing species. Colonization patterns were largely congruent, indicating that despite the importance of stochasticity, LDD is mainly determined by common factors, probably dispersal vectors. Our findings caution against a priori assuming a single, close source region in biogeographic analyses. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

An integrated WRF/HYSPLIT modeling approach for the assessment of PM(2.5) source regions over the Mississippi Gulf Coast region.

PubMed

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata Bhaskar Rao; Challa, Venkata Srinivas; Myles, Latoya; Pendergrass, William R; Vogel, Christoph A; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Tuluri, Francis; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Patrick, Chuck; Young, John H; Swanier, Shelton J; Hardy, Mark G

2012-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is majorly formed by precursor gases, such as sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), which are emitted largely from intense industrial operations and transportation activities. PM(2.5) has been shown to affect respiratory health in humans. Evaluation of source regions and assessment of emission source contributions in the Gulf Coast region of the USA will be useful for the development of PM(2.5) regulatory and mitigation strategies. In the present study, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model is used to identify the emission source locations and transportation trends. Meteorological observations as well as PM(2.5) sulfate and nitric acid concentrations were collected at two sites during the Mississippi Coastal Atmospheric Dispersion Study, a summer 2009 field experiment along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Meteorological fields during the campaign were simulated using WRF with three nested domains of 36, 12, and 4 km horizontal resolutions and 43 vertical levels and validated with North American Mesoscale Analysis. The HYSPLIT model was integrated with meteorological fields derived from the WRF model to identify the source locations using backward trajectory analysis. The backward trajectories for a 24-h period were plotted at 1-h intervals starting from two observation locations to identify probable sources. The back trajectories distinctly indicated the sources to be in the direction between south and west, thus to have origin from local Mississippi, neighboring Louisiana state, and Gulf of Mexico. Out of the eight power plants located within the radius of 300 km of the two monitoring sites examined as sources, only Watson, Cajun, and Morrow power plants fall in the path of the derived back trajectories. Forward dispersions patterns computed using HYSPLIT were plotted from each of these source locations using the hourly mean emission concentrations as computed from past annual emission strength data to assess extent of their contribution. An assessment of the relative contributions from the eight sources reveal that only Cajun and Morrow power plants contribute to the observations at the Wiggins Airport to a certain extent while none of the eight power plants contribute to the observations at Harrison Central High School. As these observations represent a moderate event with daily average values of 5-8 μg m(-3) for sulfate and 1-3 μg m(-3) for HNO(3) with differences between the two spatially varied sites, the local sources may also be significant contributors for the observed values of PM(2.5).

Use of MODIS Satellite Images and an Atmospheric Dust Transport Model to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology and Dispersal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, J. C.; Sprigg, W. A.; Levetin, E.; Huete, A.; Nickovic, S.; Pejanovic, G. A.; Vukovic, A.; VandeWater, P. K.; Myers, O. B.; Budge, A. M.;

Arterial waveguide model for shear wave elastography: implementation and in vitro validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaziri Astaneh, Ali; Urban, Matthew W.; Aquino, Wilkins; Greenleaf, James F.; Guddati, Murthy N.

2017-07-01

Arterial stiffness is found to be an early indicator of many cardiovascular diseases. Among various techniques, shear wave elastography has emerged as a promising tool for estimating local arterial stiffness through the observed dispersion of guided waves. In this paper, we develop efficient models for the computational simulation of guided wave dispersion in arterial walls. The models are capable of considering fluid-loaded tubes, immersed in fluid or embedded in a solid, which are encountered in in vitro/ex vivo, and in vivo experiments. The proposed methods are based on judiciously combining Fourier transformation and finite element discretization, leading to a significant reduction in computational cost while fully capturing complex 3D wave propagation. The developed methods are implemented in open-source code, and verified by comparing them with significantly more expensive, fully 3D finite element models. We also validate the models using the shear wave elastography of tissue-mimicking phantoms. The computational efficiency of the developed methods indicates the possibility of being able to estimate arterial stiffness in real time, which would be beneficial in clinical settings.

Use of MODIS Satellite Data to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology to Support a Pollen Dispersal Model, PREAM, to Support Public Health Allergy Alerts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, J. C.; Sprigg, W.; Levetin, E.; Huete, A.; Nickovic, S.; Pejanovic, G. A.; Vukovic, A.; VandeWater, P.; Budge, A.; Hudspeth, W.;

Mate-finding as an overlooked critical determinant of dispersal variation in sexually-reproducing animals.

PubMed

Gilroy, James J; Lockwood, Julie L

2012-01-01

Dispersal is a critically important process in ecology, but robust predictive models of animal dispersal remain elusive. We identify a potentially ubiquitous component of variation in animal dispersal that has been largely overlooked until now: the influence of mate encounters on settlement probability. We use an individual-based model to simulate dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms that follow a simple set of movement rules based on conspecific encounters, within an environment lacking spatial habitat heterogeneity. We show that dispersal distances vary dramatically with fluctuations in population density in such a model, even in the absence of variation in dispersive traits between individuals. In a simple random-walk model with promiscuous mating, dispersal distributions become increasingly 'fat-tailed' at low population densities due to the increasing scarcity of mates. Similar variation arises in models incorporating territoriality. In a model with polygynous mating, we show that patterns of sex-biased dispersal can even be reversed across a gradient of population density, despite underlying dispersal mechanisms remaining unchanged. We show that some widespread dispersal patterns found in nature (e.g. fat tailed distributions) can arise as a result of demographic variability in the absence of heterogeneity in dispersive traits across the population. This implies that models in which individual dispersal distances are considered to be fixed traits might be unrealistic, as dispersal distances vary widely under a single dispersal mechanism when settlement is influenced by mate encounters. Mechanistic models offer a promising means of advancing our understanding of dispersal in sexually-reproducing organisms.

Determination of NH3 emissions from confined areas using backward Lagrangian stochastic dispersion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häni, Christoph; Neftel, Albrecht; Sintermann, Jörg

2016-04-01

Employing backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) dispersion modelling to infer emission strengths from confined areas using trace gas concentration measurements is a convenient way of emission estimation from field measurements (see Wilson et al., 2012 and references therein). The freely available software 'WindTrax' (www.thunderbeachscientific.com), providing a graphical interface for the application of a bLS model, has spurred its utilisation in the past decade. Investigations include mainly methane (CH4) and ammonia (NH3) emissions based on experimental plots with dimensions between approximately 102 to 104 m2. Whereas for CH4 deposition processes can be neglected, NH3 has a strong affinity to any surface and is therefore efficiently deposited. Neglecting dry deposition will underestimate NH3 emissions, e.g. with a standard WindTrax approach. We extended the bLS model described in Flesch et al. (2004) by a dry deposition process using a simple, one-directional deposition velocity approach. At every contact of the model trajectories with ground level (here at the height of the roughness length Zo), deposition is modelled as: Fdep = vdep × CT raj (1) where vdep represents deposition velocity, and CTraj is the actual concentration of the specific trajectory at contact. A convenient way to model vdep is given by a resistances approach. The deposition velocity is modelled as the inverse of the sum of a series of different resistances to deposition. The aerodynamic resistance is already implicitly included in the bLS model, thus vdep is given as: v = ---1--- dep Rb + Rc (2) Rb and Rc represent resistances of different model layers between Zo and the surfaces where deposition take place. With this approach we analysed a dataset from measurements with an artificial NH3 source that consisted of 36 individual orifices mimicking a circular area source with a radius of 10 m. The use of three open-path miniDOAS (Sintermann et al., submitted to AMT) systems allowed to measure a line integrated vertical concentration profile downwind of the source. The inclusion of the deposition process is necessary for a consistent interpretation of the measurements. References Flesch, T.K., Wilson, J.D., Harper, L.A., Crenna, B.P., Sharpe, R.R., 2004. Deducing ground-to-air emissions from observed trace gas concentrations: A field trial. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43 (3), 487-502. Wilson, J.D., Flesch, T.K., Crenna, B.P., 2012. Estimating Surface-Air Gas Fluxes by Inverse Dispersion Using a Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Trajectory Model, in: Lin, J., Brunner, D., Gerbig, C., Stohl, A., Luhar, A., Webley, P. (Eds.), Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., pp. 149-162.

Resolution enhancement of partial coherence interferometry by dispersion compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgartner, Angela; Hitzenberger, Christoph K.; Drexler, Wolfgang; Fercher, Adolf F.

1997-12-01

In the past ten years partial coherence interferometry and optical coherence tomography have been developed for high precision biometry and tomography of the human eye in vivo. The longitudinal resolution of the optical coherence tomography technique depends on the spectral bandwidth of the light source used and on the dispersion of the media to be measured. In nondispersive media the resolution is approximately equal to the coherence length of the light used, which is inversely proportional to the width of the emission spectrum. Hence, a broad emission spectrum yields a short coherence length and consequently a good resolution. However, if the tissue under investigation is dispersive, the coherence envelope of the signal broadens leading to a decrease in resolution and interference fringe contrast. This effect becomes predominant if measurements through the dispersive media of the eye to the retina are performed with source bandwidths larger than approximately 25 nm. In order to achieve optimum resolution of OCT by applying a light source with a broad emission spectrum, the dispersion of the object to be measured, i.e. in this case of the ocular media, has to be compensated. Within the scope of this work we demonstrate the resolution improvement that is obtained by compensating the dispersive effects of the ocular media and using broadband light sources. Furthermore, we present the first optical coherence tomogram recorded with this technique in the retina of a human eye in vivo with an axial geometrical resolution of approximately 6 micrometers which is a two-fold improvement compared to presently used technology.

Laser control of natural disperse systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasova, Olga L.; Bezrukova, Alexandra G.

2003-10-01

Different water disperse systems were studied by integral (spectroturbidemetry) and differential light scattering method with a laser as a source of light. The investigation done concerns the state of kaolin dispersions at storage and under dilution as an example of mineral dispersion systems such as natural water. The role of some light scattering parameters for an optical analysis of water dispersions, like the dispersion of erythrocytes and bacterial cells -Escherichia coli is discussed. The results obtained can help to elaborate the methods for on-line optical control fo natural disperse systems (water, air) with mineral and biological particles.

Using Atmospheric Dispersion Theory to Inform the Design of a Short-lived Radioactive Particle Release Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rishel, Jeremy P.; Keillor, Martin E.; Arrigo, Leah M.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric dispersion theory can be used to predict ground deposition of particulates downwind of a radionuclide release. This paper utilizes standard formulations found in Gaussian plume models to inform the design of an experimental release of short-lived radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Specifically, a source depletion algorithm is used to determine the optimum particle size and release height that maximizes the near-field deposition while minimizing the both the required source activity and the fraction of activity lost to long-distance transport. The purpose of the release is to provide a realistic deposition pattern that might be observed downwind of a small-scalemore » vent from an underground nuclear explosion. The deposition field will be used, in part, to investigate several techniques of gamma radiation survey and spectrometry that could be utilized by an On-Site Inspection team under the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.« less

Epidemiology and population biology of Pseudoperonospora cubensis: a model system for management of downy mildews.

PubMed

Ojiambo, Peter S; Gent, David H; Quesada-Ocampo, Lina M; Hausbeck, Mary K; Holmes, Gerald J

2015-01-01

The resurgence of cucurbit downy mildew has dramatically influenced production of cucurbits and disease management systems at multiple scales. Long-distance dispersal is a fundamental aspect of epidemic development that influences the timing and extent of outbreaks of cucurbit downy mildew. The dispersal potential of Pseudoperonospora cubensis appears to be limited primarily by sporangia production in source fields and availability of susceptible hosts and less by sporangia survival during transport. Uncertainty remains regarding the role of locally produced inoculum in disease outbreaks, but evidence suggests multiple sources of primary inoculum could be important. Understanding pathogen diversity and population differentiation is a critical aspect of disease management and an active research area. Underpinning advances in our understanding of pathogen biology and disease management has been the research capacity and coordination of stakeholders, scientists, and extension personnel. Concepts and approaches developed in this pathosystem can guide future efforts when responding to incursions of new or reemerging downy mildew pathogens.

Putting FLEXPART to REST: The Provision of Atmospheric Transport Modeling Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, Don; Arnold, Dèlia

2015-04-01

We are developing a RESTful set of modeling services for the FLEXPART modeling system. FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) is a Lagrangian transport and dispersion model used by a growing international community. It has been used to simulate and forecast the atmospheric transport of wildfire smoke, volcanic ash and radionuclides and may be run in backwards mode to provide information for the determination of emission sources such as nuclear emissions and greenhouse gases. This open source software is distributed in source code form, and has several compiler and library dependencies that users need to address. Although well-documented, getting it compiled, set up, running, and post-processed is often tedious, making it difficult for the inexperienced or casual user. Well-designed modeling services lower the entry barrier for scientists to perform simulations, allowing them to create and execute their models from a variety of devices and programming environments. This world of Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) has progressed to a REpresentational State Transfer (REST) paradigm, in which the pervasive and mature HTTP environment is used as a foundation for providing access to model services. With such an approach, sound software engineering practises are adhered to in order to deploy service modules exhibiting very loose coupling with the clients. In short, services are accessed and controlled through the formation of properly-constructed Uniform Resource Identifiers (URI's), processed in an HTTP environment. In this way, any client or combination of clients - whether a bash script, Python program, web GUI, or even Unix command line - that can interact with an HTTP server, can run the modeling environment. This loose coupling allows for the deployment of a variety of front ends, all accessing a common modeling backend system. Furthermore, it is generally accepted in the cloud computing community that RESTful approaches constitute a sound approach towards successful deployment of services. Through the design of a RESTful, cloud-based modeling system, we provide the ubiquitous access to FLEXPART that allows scientists to focus on modeling processes instead of tedious computational details. In this work, we describe the modeling services environment, and provide examples of access via command-line, Python programs, and web GUI interfaces.

Is a larger refuge always better? Dispersal and dose in pesticide resistance evolution.

PubMed

Takahashi, Daisuke; Yamanaka, Takehiko; Sudo, Masaaki; Andow, David A

2017-06-01

The evolution of resistance against pesticides is an important problem of modern agriculture. The high-dose/refuge strategy, which divides the landscape into treated and nontreated (refuge) patches, has proven effective at delaying resistance evolution. However, theoretical understanding is still incomplete, especially for combinations of limited dispersal and partially recessive resistance. We reformulate a two-patch model based on the Comins model and derive a simple quadratic approximation to analyze the effects of limited dispersal, refuge size, and dominance for high efficacy treatments on the rate of evolution. When a small but substantial number of heterozygotes can survive in the treated patch, a larger refuge always reduces the rate of resistance evolution. However, when dominance is small enough, the evolutionary dynamics in the refuge population, which is indirectly driven by migrants from the treated patch, mainly describes the resistance evolution in the landscape. In this case, for small refuges, increasing the refuge size will increase the rate of resistance evolution. Our analysis distils major driving forces from the model, and can provide a framework for understanding directional selection in source-sink environments. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The modelling of odour dispersion as a support tool for the improvements of high odours impact plants.

PubMed

Luciano, Antonella; Torretta, Vincenzo; Mancini, Giuseppe; Eleuteri, Andrea; Raboni, Massimo; Viotti, Paolo

2017-03-01

Two scenarios in terms of odour impact assessment were studied during the phase of upgrading of an existing waste treatment plant: CALPUFF was used for the simulation of odour dispersion. Olfactometric measures, carried out over different periods and different positions in the plant, were used for model calibration. Results from simulations were reported in terms of statistics of odour concentrations and isopleths maps of the 98th percentile of the hourly peak concentrations, as requested from the European legislation and standards. The excess perception thresholds and emissions were utilized to address the plant upgrade options. The hourly evaluation of odours was performed to determine the most impacting period of the day. An inverse application of the numerical simulation starting from defining the odour threshold at the receptor was made to allow the definition of the required abatement efficiency at the odours source location. Results from the proposed approach confirmed the likelihood to adopt odour dispersion modelling, not only in the authorization phase, but also as a tool for driving technical and managing actions in plant upgrade so to reduce impacts and improve the public acceptance. The upgrade actions in order to achieve the expected efficiency are reported as well.

Dispersion model on PM₂.₅ fugitive dust and trace metals levels in Kuwait Governorates.

PubMed

Bu-Olayan, A H; Thomas, B V

2012-03-01

Frequent dust storms and recent environmental changes were found to affect the human health especially in residents of arid countries. Investigations on the PM(2.5) fugitive dust in six Kuwait Governorate areas using dispersion Gaussian plume modeling revealed significant relationship between low rate of pollutant emission, low wind velocity, and stable weather conditions' matrix causing high rate of dust deposition in summer than in winter. The rate of dust deposition and trace metals levels in PM(2.5) were in the sequence of G-VI > G-I > G-II > G-V > G-III > G-IV. Trace metals were observed in the sequence of Al > Fe > Zn > Ni > Pb > Cd irrespective of the Governorate areas and the two seasons. The high rate of dust deposition and trace metals in PM(2.5) was reflected by the vast open area, wind velocity, and rapid industrialization besides natural and anthropogenic sources. A combination of air dispersion modeling and nephalometric and gravimetric studies of this kind not only determines the seasonal qualitative and quantitative analyses on the PM(2.5) dust deposition besides trace metals apportionment in six Kuwait Governorate areas, but also characterizes air pollution factors that could be used by environmentalist to deduce preventive measures.

IUE observations of a hot DAO white dwarf: Implications for diffusion theory and photospheric stratification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holberg, J. B.; Sion, E. M.; Liebert, J.; Vauclair, Gerard

1988-01-01

Observations of the DAO white dwarf PG1210+533, including the first high dispersion spectrum of a hybrid H-He object of this nature were obtained by IUE. In contrast with hot DAs in the 50,000 K temperature range, PG1210+533 shows no narrow interstellar-like metal lines, in spite of an optically observed He/H abundance of 0.1. This lack of metal makes accretion from the ISM an unlikely source for the He in the PG1210+533 photosphere. A significant discovery in the high dispersion spectrum is the existence of a sharp, non-LTE like, core seen in the He II 1640 line. Such features are detected in DO white dwarfs. A small aperture SWP low dispersion observation reveals the Lyman alpha profile of PG1210+533 to be surprisingly weak and narrow. Fits of this profile using pure H models yielded a T(eff) = 56,000 K. Fits of the Balmer H gamma profile however, yield T(eff) = 42,300 K and log g = 8.5 + or - 0.5 for the same models. It is unlikely that homogeneously mixed H-He atmospheres can resolve the inconsistency between the Lyman alpha and H gamma features in this star. Stratified models involving thin H photospheres may be necessary to explain these results.

Compact solid source of hydrogen gas

DOEpatents

Kravitz, Stanley H.; Hecht, Andrew M.; Sylwester, Alan P.; Bell, Nelson S.

2004-06-08

A compact solid source of hydrogen gas, where the gas is generated by contacting water with micro-disperse particles of sodium borohydride in the presence of a catalyst, such as cobalt or ruthenium. The micro-disperse particles can have a substantially uniform diameter of 1-10 microns, and preferably about 3-5 microns. Ruthenium or cobalt catalytic nanoparticles can be incorporated in the micro-disperse particles of sodium borohydride, which allows a rapid and complete reaction to occur without the problems associated with caking and scaling of the surface by the reactant product sodium metaborate. A closed loop water management system can be used to recycle wastewater from a PEM fuel cell to supply water for reacting with the micro-disperse particles of sodium borohydride in a compact hydrogen gas generator. Capillary forces can wick water from a water reservoir into a packed bed of micro-disperse fuel particles, eliminating the need for using an active pump.

Determination of the chromatic dispersion of liquids based on the liquid-prism SPR configuration in angular and spectral interrogations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Guoqiang; Liu, Shugang; Wang, Yuxiao; Zhang, Xueru; Song, Yinglin

2015-10-01

In this work, we use the liquid-prism SPR sensing configuration to determine the chromatic dispersion of different liquids, since the condition of SPR is sensitive to the refractive index of the liquid prism. We use the glass slide coated with 50 nm Au film as the sensing chip, and use AvaLight - HAL (360 nm - 2500 nm) light source as the broaden band light source in our experiments. We adopt the deionized water as the standard sample to determine the chromatic dispersion of different liquid samples (ethanol and n-hexane), and we implement the experiment through the SPR sensing configuration in angular and spectral interrogations. According to the experimental data, the chromatic dispersions of ethanol and n-hexane are obtained. The proposed technique provides a new high sensitive method for the determination of chromatic dispersion of liquids.

Can contaminant transport models predict breakthrough?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, Wei-Shyuan; Hampton, Duane R.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Kambham, Kiran; Benegar, Jeffery J.

2000-01-01

A solute breakthrough curve measured during a two-well tracer test was successfully predicted in 1986 using specialized contaminant transport models. Water was injected into a confined, unconsolidated sand aquifer and pumped out 125 feet (38.3 m) away at the same steady rate. The injected water was spiked with bromide for over three days; the outflow concentration was monitored for a month. Based on previous tests, the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the thick aquifer varied by a factor of seven among 12 layers. Assuming stratified flow with small dispersivities, two research groups accurately predicted breakthrough with three-dimensional (12-layer) models using curvilinear elements following the arc-shaped flowlines in this test. Can contaminant transport models commonly used in industry, that use rectangular blocks, also reproduce this breakthrough curve? The two-well test was simulated with four MODFLOW-based models, MT3D (FD and HMOC options), MODFLOWT, MOC3D, and MODFLOW-SURFACT. Using the same 12 layers and small dispersivity used in the successful 1986 simulations, these models fit almost as accurately as the models using curvilinear blocks. Subtle variations in the curves illustrate differences among the codes. Sensitivities of the results to number and size of grid blocks, number of layers, boundary conditions, and values of dispersivity and porosity are briefly presented. The fit between calculated and measured breakthrough curves degenerated as the number of layers and/or grid blocks decreased, reflecting a loss of model predictive power as the level of characterization lessened. Therefore, the breakthrough curve for most field sites can be predicted only qualitatively due to limited characterization of the hydrogeology and contaminant source strength.

The Fukushima releases: an inverse modelling approach to assess the source term by using gamma dose rate observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunier, Olivier; Mathieu, Anne; Didier, Damien; Tombette, Marilyne; Quélo, Denis; Winiarek, Victor; Bocquet, Marc

2013-04-01

The Chernobyl nuclear accident and more recently the Fukushima accident highlighted that the largest source of error on consequences assessment is the source term estimation including the time evolution of the release rate and its distribution between radioisotopes. Inverse modelling methods have proved to be efficient to assess the source term due to accidental situation (Gudiksen, 1989, Krysta and Bocquet, 2007, Stohl et al 2011, Winiarek et al 2012). These methods combine environmental measurements and atmospheric dispersion models. They have been recently applied to the Fukushima accident. Most existing approaches are designed to use air sampling measurements (Winiarek et al, 2012) and some of them use also deposition measurements (Stohl et al, 2012, Winiarek et al, 2013). During the Fukushima accident, such measurements are far less numerous and not as well distributed within Japan than the dose rate measurements. To efficiently document the evolution of the contamination, gamma dose rate measurements were numerous, well distributed within Japan and they offered a high temporal frequency. However, dose rate data are not as easy to use as air sampling measurements and until now they were not used in inverse modelling approach. Indeed, dose rate data results from all the gamma emitters present in the ground and in the atmosphere in the vicinity of the receptor. They do not allow one to determine the isotopic composition or to distinguish the plume contribution from wet deposition. The presented approach proposes a way to use dose rate measurement in inverse modeling approach without the need of a-priori information on emissions. The method proved to be efficient and reliable when applied on the Fukushima accident. The emissions for the 8 main isotopes Xe-133, Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137, Ba-137m, I-131, I-132 and Te-132 have been assessed. The Daiichi power plant events (such as ventings, explosions…) known to have caused atmospheric releases are well identified in the retrieved source term, except for unit 3 explosion where no measurement was available. The comparisons between the simulations of atmospheric dispersion and deposition of the retrieved source term show a good agreement with environmental observations. Moreover, an important outcome of this study is that the method proved to be perfectly suited to crisis management and should contribute to improve our response in case of a nuclear accident.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Non-Fickian dispersive transport of strontium in laboratory-scale columns: Modelling and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dongxu; Jivkov, Andrey P.; Wang, Lichun; Si, Gaohua; Yu, Jing

2017-06-01

In the context of environmental remediation of contaminated sites and safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the near-surface zone, we investigate the leaching and non-Fickian dispersive migration with sorption of strontium (mocking strontium-90) through columns packed with sand and clay. Analysis is based on breakthrough curves (BTCs) from column experiments, which simulated rainfall infiltration and source term release scenario, rather than applying constant tracer solution at the inlet as commonly used. BTCs are re-evaluated and transport parameters are estimated by inverse modelling using two approaches: (1) equilibrium advection-dispersion equation (ADE); and (2) continuous time random walk (CTRW). Firstly, based on a method for calculating leach concentration, the inlet condition with an exponential decay input is identified. Secondly, the results show that approximately 39%-58% of Br- and 16%-49% of Sr2+ are eluted from the columns at the end of the breakthrough experiments. This suggests that trapping mechanisms, including diffusion into immobile zones and attachment of tracer on mineral surfaces, are more pronounced for Sr2+ than for Br-. Thirdly, we demonstrate robustness of CTRW-based truncated power-law (TPL) model in capturing non-Fickian reactive transport with 0 < β < 2, and Fickian transport with β > 2. The non-Fickian dispersion observed experimentally is explained by variations of local flow field from preferential flow paths due to physical heterogeneities. Particularly, the additional sorption process of strontium on clay minerals contributes to the delay of the peak concentration and the tailing features, which leads to an enhanced non-Fickian transport for strontium. Finally, the ADE and CTRW approaches to environmental modelling are evaluated. It is shown that CTRW with a sorption term can describe non-Fickian dispersive transport of strontium at laboratory scale by identifying appropriate parameters, while the traditional ADE with a retardation factor fails to reproduce the complex non-Fickian transport of strontium with strong sorption on clay surface.

Inverse modeling methods for indoor airborne pollutant tracking: literature review and fundamentals.

PubMed

Liu, X; Zhai, Z

2007-12-01

Reduction in indoor environment quality calls for effective control and improvement measures. Accurate and prompt identification of contaminant sources ensures that they can be quickly removed and contaminated spaces isolated and cleaned. This paper discusses the use of inverse modeling to identify potential indoor pollutant sources with limited pollutant sensor data. The study reviews various inverse modeling methods for advection-dispersion problems and summarizes the methods into three major categories: forward, backward, and probability inverse modeling methods. The adjoint probability inverse modeling method is indicated as an appropriate model for indoor air pollutant tracking because it can quickly find source location, strength and release time without prior information. The paper introduces the principles of the adjoint probability method and establishes the corresponding adjoint equations for both multi-zone airflow models and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. The study proposes a two-stage inverse modeling approach integrating both multi-zone and CFD models, which can provide a rapid estimate of indoor pollution status and history for a whole building. Preliminary case study results indicate that the adjoint probability method is feasible for indoor pollutant inverse modeling. The proposed method can help identify contaminant source characteristics (location and release time) with limited sensor outputs. This will ensure an effective and prompt execution of building management strategies and thus achieve a healthy and safe indoor environment. The method can also help design optimal sensor networks.

Application of the Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the stochastic estimation of atmospheric contamination parameters for mobile sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopka, Piotr; Wawrzynczak, Anna; Borysiewicz, Mieczyslaw

2016-11-01

In this paper the Bayesian methodology, known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), is applied to the problem of the atmospheric contamination source identification. The algorithm input data are on-line arriving concentrations of the released substance registered by the distributed sensors network. This paper presents the Sequential ABC algorithm in detail and tests its efficiency in estimation of probabilistic distributions of atmospheric release parameters of a mobile contamination source. The developed algorithms are tested using the data from Over-Land Atmospheric Diffusion (OLAD) field tracer experiment. The paper demonstrates estimation of seven parameters characterizing the contamination source, i.e.: contamination source starting position (x,y), the direction of the motion of the source (d), its velocity (v), release rate (q), start time of release (ts) and its duration (td). The online-arriving new concentrations dynamically update the probability distributions of search parameters. The atmospheric dispersion Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF (SCIPUFF) Model is used as the forward model to predict the concentrations at the sensors locations.

Monitoring and Predicting the Long Distance Transport of Fusarium graminearum, Causal Agent of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheat and Barley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prussin, Aaron Justin, II

Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Fusarium graminearum , is a serious disease of wheat and barley that has caused several billion dollars in crop losses over the last decade in the United States. Spores of F. graminearum are released from corn and small grain residues left-over from the previous growing season and are transported long distances in the atmosphere before being deposited. Current risk assessment tools consider environmental conditions favorable for disease development, but do not include spore transport. Long distance transport models have been proposed for a number of plant pathogens, but many of these models have not been experimentally validated. In order to predict the atmospheric transport of F. graminearum, the potential source strength ( Qpot) of inoculum must be known. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to estimate Qpot from a field-scale source of inoculum of F. graminearum. Perithecia were generated on artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates. Artificial substrate (carrot agar) produced 15+/-0.4 perithecia cm-2, and natural substrate (corn stalk) produced 44+/-2 perithecia cm-2. Individual perithecia were excised from both substrate types and allowed to release ascospores every 24 hours. Perithecia generated from artificial (carrot agar) and natural (corn stalk) substrates released a mean of 104+/-5 and 276+/-16 ascospores, respectively. A volumetric spore trap was placed inside a 3,716 m2 clonal source of inoculum in 2011 and 2012. Results indicated that ascospores were released under field conditions predominantly (>90%) during the night (1900 to 0700 hours). Estimates of Qpot for our field-scale sources of inoculum were approximately 4 billion ascospores per 3,716 m 2. Release-recapture studies were conducted from a clonal field-scale source of F. graminearum in 2011 and 2012. Microsatellites were used to identify the released clone of F. graminearum at distances up to 1 km from the source. Dispersal kernels for field observations were compared to results predicted by a Gaussian dispersal-based spore transport model. In 2011 and 2012, dispersal kernel shape coefficients were similar for both results observed in the field and predicted by the model, with both being dictated by a power law function, indicating that turbulence was the dominant transport factor on the scale we studied (˜ 1 km). Model predictions had a stronger correlation with the number of spores being released when using a time varying q0 emission rate (r= 0.92 in 2011 and r= 0.84 in 2012) than an identical daily pattern q0 emission rate (r= 0.35 in 2011 and r= 0.32 in 2012). The actual numbers of spores deposited were 3 and 2000 times lower than predicted if Qpot were equal to the actual number of spores released in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Future work should address estimating the actual number of spore released from an inoculated field during any given season, to improve prediction accuracy of the model. This work should assist in improving current risk assessment tools for FHB and contribute to the development of early warning systems for the spread of F. graminearum.

Numerical modelling of the work of a pulsed aerosol system for fire fighting at the ignitions of liquid hydrocarbon fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rychkov, A. D.

2009-06-01

The work of a pulsed aerosol system for fire fighting is modelled, which is designed for fire fighting at oil storages and at the spills of oil products, whose vapors were modelled by gaseous methane. The system represents a device for separate installation, which consists of a charge of solid propellant (the gas generator) and a container with fine-dispersed powder of the flame-damper substance. The methane combustion was described by a one-stage gross-reaction, the influence of the concentration of vapors of the flame-damper substance on the combustion process was taken into account by reducing the pre-exponent factor in the Arrhenius law and was described by an empirical dependence. The computational experiment showed that the application of the pulsed aerosol system for fire fighting ensures an efficient transport of fine-dispersed aerosol particles of the flame-damping substance and its forming vapors to the combustion zone; the concentration of particles ensures the damping of the heat source.

Understanding the relative role of dispersion mechanisms across basin scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Lazzaro, M.; Zarlenga, A.; Volpi, E.

2016-05-01

Different mechanisms are understood to represent the primary sources of the variance of travel time distribution in natural catchments. To quantify the fraction of variance introduced by each component, dispersion coefficients have been earlier defined in the framework of geomorphology-based rainfall-runoff models. In this paper we compare over a wide range of basin sizes and for a variety of runoff conditions the relative role of geomorphological dispersion, related to the heterogeneity of path lengths, and hillslope kinematic dispersion, generated by flow processes within the hillslopes. Unlike previous works, our approach does not focus on a specific study case; instead, we try to generalize results already obtained in previous literature stemming from the definition of a few significant parameters related to the metrics of the catchment and flow dynamics. We further extend this conceptual framework considering the effects of two additional variance-producing processes: the first covers the random variability of hillslope velocities (i.e. of travel times over hillslopes); the second deals with non-uniform production of runoff over the basin (specifically related to drainage density). Results are useful to clarify the role of hillslope kinematic dispersion and define under which conditions it counteracts or reinforces geomorphological dispersion. We show how its sign is ruled by the specific spatial distribution of hillslope lengths within the basin, as well as by flow conditions. Interestingly, while negative in a wide range of cases, kinematic dispersion is expected to become invariantly positive when the variability of hillslope velocity is large.

Siberian Arctic black carbon sources constrained by model and observation

PubMed Central

Andersson, August; Eckhardt, Sabine; Stohl, Andreas; Semiletov, Igor P.; Dudarev, Oleg V.; Charkin, Alexander; Shakhova, Natalia; Klimont, Zbigniew; Heyes, Chris; Gustafsson, Örjan

2017-01-01

Black carbon (BC) in haze and deposited on snow and ice can have strong effects on the radiative balance of the Arctic. There is a geographic bias in Arctic BC studies toward the Atlantic sector, with lack of observational constraints for the extensive Russian Siberian Arctic, spanning nearly half of the circum-Arctic. Here, 2 y of observations at Tiksi (East Siberian Arctic) establish a strong seasonality in both BC concentrations (8 ng⋅m−3 to 302 ng⋅m−3) and dual-isotope–constrained sources (19 to 73% contribution from biomass burning). Comparisons between observations and a dispersion model, coupled to an anthropogenic emissions inventory and a fire emissions inventory, give mixed results. In the European Arctic, this model has proven to simulate BC concentrations and source contributions well. However, the model is less successful in reproducing BC concentrations and sources for the Russian Arctic. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that, in contrast to earlier studies, contributions from gas flaring (6%), power plants (9%), and open fires (12%) are relatively small, with the major sources instead being domestic (35%) and transport (38%). The observation-based evaluation of reported emissions identifies errors in spatial allocation of BC sources in the inventory and highlights the importance of improving emission distribution and source attribution, to develop reliable mitigation strategies for efficient reduction of BC impact on the Russian Arctic, one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth. PMID:28137854

Effects of Source Correlations on the Spectrum of Radiated Fields

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

media. When the refractive index n(co) is nearly constant over the source spectral width, the medium acts as a non- dispersive homogeneous medium of...constant refractive index no = n(w0 ), where o is the central frequency of the source spectrum. We will consider the non- dispersive case first. It is...in free space (a), for propagation in a homogeneous medium of an index of refraction n((o) = 1.5 (b) and for propagation in a medium of index of

Propagation of high frequency electrostatic surface waves along the planar interface between plasma and dusty plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Rinku; Dey, M.

2018-04-01

An analytical model is developed that explains the propagation of a high frequency electrostatic surface wave along the interface of a plasma system where semi-infinite electron-ion plasma is interfaced with semi-infinite dusty plasma. The model emphasizes that the source of such high frequency waves is inherent in the presence of ion acoustic and dust ion acoustic/dust acoustic volume waves in electron-ion plasma and dusty plasma region. Wave dispersion relation is obtained for two distinct cases and the role of plasma parameters on wave dispersion is analyzed in short and long wavelength limits. The normalized surface wave frequency is seen to grow linearly for lower wave number but becomes constant for higher wave numbers in both the cases. It is observed that the normalized frequency depends on ion plasma frequencies when dust oscillation frequency is neglected.

New software to model energy dispersive X-ray diffraction in polycrystalline materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghammraoui, B.; Tabary, J.; Pouget, S.; Paulus, C.; Moulin, V.; Verger, L.; Duvauchelle, Ph.

2012-02-01

Detection of illicit materials, such as explosives or drugs, within mixed samples is a major issue, both for general security and as part of forensic analyses. In this paper, we describe a new code simulating energy dispersive X-ray diffraction patterns in polycrystalline materials. This program, SinFullscat, models diffraction of any object in any diffractometer system taking all physical phenomena, including amorphous background, into account. Many system parameters can be tuned: geometry, collimators (slit and cylindrical), sample properties, X-ray source and detector energy resolution. Good agreement between simulations and experimental data was obtained. Simulations using explosive materials indicated that parameters such as the diffraction angle or the energy resolution of the detector have a significant impact on the diffraction signature of the material inspected. This software will be a convenient tool to test many diffractometer configurations, providing information on the one that best restores the spectral diffraction signature of the materials of interest.

Bayesian source term estimation of atmospheric releases in urban areas using LES approach.

PubMed

Xue, Fei; Kikumoto, Hideki; Li, Xiaofeng; Ooka, Ryozo

2018-05-05

The estimation of source information from limited measurements of a sensor network is a challenging inverse problem, which can be viewed as an assimilation process of the observed concentration data and the predicted concentration data. When dealing with releases in built-up areas, the predicted data are generally obtained by the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, which yields building-resolving results; however, RANS-based models are outperformed by large-eddy simulation (LES) in the predictions of both airflow and dispersion. Therefore, it is important to explore the possibility of improving the estimation of the source parameters by using the LES approach. In this paper, a novel source term estimation method is proposed based on LES approach using Bayesian inference. The source-receptor relationship is obtained by solving the adjoint equations constructed using the time-averaged flow field simulated by the LES approach based on the gradient diffusion hypothesis. A wind tunnel experiment with a constant point source downwind of a single building model is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, which is compared with that of the existing method using a RANS model. The results show that the proposed method reduces the errors of source location and releasing strength by 77% and 28%, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

2016-02-01

Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

Biogeography in Cellana (Patellogastropoda, Nacellidae) with Special Emphasis on the Relationships of Southern Hemisphere Oceanic Island Species.

PubMed

González-Wevar, Claudio A; Nakano, Tomoyuki; Palma, Alvaro; Poulin, Elie

2017-01-01

Oceanic islands lacking connections to other land are extremely isolated from sources of potential colonists and have acquired their biota mainly through dispersal from geographically distant areas. Hence, isolated island biota constitutes interesting models to infer biogeographical mechanisms of dispersal, colonization, differentiation, and speciation. Limpets of the genus Cellana (Nacellidae: Patellogastropoda) show limited dispersal capacity but are broadly distributed across the Indo-Pacific including many endemic species in isolated oceanic islands. Here, we examined main distributional patterns and geographic boundaries among Cellana lineages with special emphasis in the relationships of Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands species. Phylogenetic reconstructions based on mtDNA (COI) recognized three main clades in Cellana including taxa from different provinces of the Indo-Pacific. Clear genetic discontinuities characterize the biogeography of Cellana and several lineages are associated to particular areas of the Indo-Pacific supporting the low dispersal capacity of the genus across recognized biogeographical barriers in the region. However, evolutionary relationships within Cellana suggest that long-distance dispersal processes have been common in the history of the genus and probably associated to the origin of the species in Hawaii and Juan Fernández Archipelago. Therefore, the presence of Cellana species in geographically distant Southern Hemisphere oceanic islands, such as the Juan Fernández Archipelago, suggests that long-distance dispersal mediated by rafting may have played an important role in the biogeography of the genus.

Characterization of pollutant dispersion near elongated buildings based on wind tunnel simulations

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a wind tunnel study of the effects of elongated rectangular buildings on the dispersion of pollutants from nearby stacks. The study examines the influence of source location, building aspect ratio, and wind direction on pollutant dispersion with the goal of de...

APPLICATIONS OF CFD SIMULATIONS OF POLLUTANT TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION WITHIN AMBIENT URBAN BUILDING ENVIRONMENTS: INCLUDING HOMELAND SECURITY

EPA Science Inventory

There is presently much focus on Homeland Security and the need to understand how potential sources of toxic material are transported and dispersed in the urban environment. Material transport and dispersion within these urban centers is highly influenced by the buildings. Compu...

Toxicities of Oils, Dispersants and Dispersed Oils to Aquatic Plants: Summary and Database Value to Resource Sustainability

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the phytotoxicities of crude and dispersed oils is important for near-shore ecosystem management, particularly post-oil spills. One source of information is toxicity data summaries which are scattered and outdated for aquatic plants and petrochemicals. As a resu...

Emissions and dispersion modeling system (EDMS). Its development and application at airports and airbases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, M.T.; Segal, H.M.

1994-06-01

A new complex source microcomputer model has been developed for use at civil airports and Air Force bases. This paper describes both the key features of this model and its application in evaluating the air quality impact of new construction projects at three airports: one in the United States and two in Canada. The single EDMS model replaces the numerous models previously required to assess the air quality impact of pollution sources at airports. EDMS also employs a commercial data base to reduce the time and manpower required to accurately assess and document the air quality impact of airfield operations.more » On July 20, 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the final rule (Federal Register, 7/20/93, page 38816) to add new models to the Guideline on Air Quality Models. At that time EDMS was incorporated into the Guideline as an Appendix A model. 12 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

An improved ray theory and transfer matrix method-based model for lightning electromagnetic pulses propagating in Earth-ionosphere waveguide and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zilong; Chen, Mingli; Zhu, Baoyou; Du, Ya-ping

2017-01-01

An improved ray theory and transfer matrix method-based model for a lightning electromagnetic pulse (LEMP) propagating in Earth-ionosphere waveguide (EIWG) is proposed and tested. The model involves the presentation of a lightning source, parameterization of the lower ionosphere, derivation of a transfer function representing all effects of EIWG on LEMP sky wave, and determination of attenuation mode of the LEMP ground wave. The lightning source is simplified as an electric point dipole standing on Earth surface with finite conductance. The transfer function for the sky wave is derived based on ray theory and transfer matrix method. The attenuation mode for the ground wave is solved from Fock's diffraction equations. The model is then applied to several lightning sferics observed in central China during day and night times within 1000 km. The results show that the model can precisely predict the time domain sky wave for all these observed lightning sferics. Both simulations and observations show that the lightning sferics in nighttime has a more complicated waveform than in daytime. Particularly, when a LEMP propagates from east to west (Φ = 270°) and in nighttime, its sky wave tends to be a double-peak waveform (dispersed sky wave) rather than a single peak one. Such a dispersed sky wave in nighttime may be attributed to the magneto-ionic splitting phenomenon in the lower ionosphere. The model provides us an efficient way for retrieving the electron density profile of the lower ionosphere and hence to monitor its spatial and temporal variations via lightning sferics.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P.; Russell, MacKenzie R.; Jones, Robert M.; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, A. Eduardo

2014-09-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model.

PubMed

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P; Russell, MacKenzie R; Jones, Robert M; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A; Sáez, A Eduardo

2014-09-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model

PubMed Central

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P.; Russell, MacKenzie R.; Jones, Robert M.; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, A. Eduardo

2014-01-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition. PMID:25621085

A SEARCH FOR RAPIDLY SPINNING PULSARS AND FAST TRANSIENTS IN UNIDENTIFIED RADIO SOURCES WITH THE NRAO 43 METER TELESCOPE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Deborah; Crawford, Fronefield; Gilpin, Claire

2013-04-15

We have searched 75 unidentified radio sources selected from the NRAO VLA Sky Survey catalog for the presence of rapidly spinning pulsars and short, dispersed radio bursts. The sources are radio bright, have no identifications or optical source coincidences, are more than 5% linearly polarized, and are spatially unresolved in the catalog. If these sources are fast-spinning pulsars (e.g., sub-millisecond pulsars), previous large-scale pulsar surveys may have missed detection due to instrumental and computational limitations, eclipsing effects, or diffractive scintillation. The discovery of a sub-millisecond pulsar would significantly constrain the neutron star equation of state and would have implications formore » models predicting a rapid slowdown of highly recycled X-ray pulsars to millisecond periods from, e.g., accretion disk decoupling. These same sources were previously searched unsuccessfully for pulsations at 610 MHz with the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank. This new search was conducted at a different epoch with a new 800 MHz backend on the NRAO 43 m Telescope at a center frequency of 1200 MHz. Our search was sensitive to sub-millisecond pulsars in highly accelerated binary systems and to short transient pulses. No periodic or transient signals were detected from any of the target sources. We conclude that diffractive scintillation, dispersive smearing, and binary acceleration are unlikely to have prevented detection of the large majority of the sources if they are pulsars, though we cannot rule out eclipsing, nulling or intermittent emission, or radio interference as possible factors for some non-detections. Other (speculative) possibilities for what these sources might include radio-emitting magnetic cataclysmic variables or older pulsars with aligned magnetic and spin axes.« less

A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

been important, often dominant, in U.S. relationships with the Andean region and, at times, with Burma, Mexico , Pakistan, and Turkey. The effort to...control drug production overseas has generally been viewed as ineffective. Mexico , the most cooperative of the source countries, continues to produce...attractive option, since the program would not face the difficulties presented in Mexico (the only country with an active program) of small, dispersed

Genetic consequences of seed dispersal to sleeping trees by white-bellied spider monkeys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karubian, Jordan; Ottewell, Kym; Link, Andres; Di Fiore, Anthony

2015-10-01

Frugivorous animals frequently generate clumped distributions of seeds away from source trees via 'destination-based' dispersal processes. For example, use of traditional sleeping trees by white-bellied spider monkeys Ateles belzebuth generates high densities of seeds of a preferred food source, the palm Oenocarpus bataua, at these sites. Little is known about the maternal seed source diversity and population genetic metrics of seed pools encountered at these sites. Given the repeated use of sleeping trees over time, and the fluid social organization and wide ranging movements exhibited by spider monkeys, we predicted that O. bataua seed pools beneath sleeping trees would be characterized by relatively high values of maternal seed source diversity and standard metrics of genetic diversity. Contrary to these expectations, we found relatively low average maternal seed source diversity beneath each of 6 sleeping trees we studied (weighted mean α = 3.74), but considerable variation in diversity of maternal seed sources between sleeping trees (range = 1.75-10.1) and high heterogeneity in standard genetic diversity measures between sleeping trees. There was no evidence for overlap in maternal seed sources between sleeping tree sites (δ = 1.0), resulting in significant genetic differentiation (Fst = 0.055-0.319) between these sites. Observed variation between sleeping trees could not be explained by the number of individual spider monkeys whose core home ranges included a given tree, nor by distance to a central mineral lick, a focal point of spider monkey activity. These findings suggest that spider monkey seed dispersal to sleeping trees is spatially restricted, perhaps because the animals visit sleeping trees at the end of the day and therefore only disperse O. bataua fruits that they ingest late in the day. These results add to our growing appreciation of the ways frugivore behavior mechanistically shapes seed dispersal outcomes.

NO to NO2 conversion rate analysis and implications for dispersion model chemistry methods using Las Vegas, Nevada near-road field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimbrough, Sue; Chris Owen, R.; Snyder, Michelle; Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer

2017-09-01

The nitrogen dioxide/oxides of nitrogen (NO2/NOX) ratio is an important surrogate for NO to NO2 chemistry in dispersion models when estimating NOX impacts in a near-road environment. Existing dispersion models use different techniques and assumptions to represent NO to NO2 conversion and do not fully characterize all of the important atmospheric chemical and mechanical processes. Thus, ;real-world; ambient measurements must be analyzed to assess the behavior of NO2/NOX ratios near roadways. An examination of NO2/NOX ratio data from a field study conducted in Las Vegas, Nevada (NV), from mid-December, 2008 through mid-December, 2009 provides insights into the appropriateness of assumptions about the NO2/NOX ratio included in dispersion models. Data analysis indicates multiple factors affect the downwind NO2/NOX ratio. These include spatial gradient, background ozone (O3), source emissions of NO and NO2, and background NO2/NOX ratio. Analysis of the NO2/NOX ratio spatial gradient indicates that under high O3 conditions, the change in the ratio is fairly constant once a certain O3 threshold (≥30 ppb) is reached. However, under low O3 conditions (<30 ppb), there are differences between weekdays and weekends, most likely due to a decline in O3 concentrations during the weekday morning hours, reducing the O3 available to titrate the emitted NO, allowing lower NO2/NOX ratios. These results suggest that under high O3 conditions, NOX chemistry is driving the NO2/NOX ratios whereas under low O3 conditions, atmospheric mixing is the driving factor.

X-ray intensity and source size characterizations for the 25 kV upgraded Manson source at Sandia National Laboratories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loisel, G., E-mail: gploise@sandia.gov; Lake, P.; Gard, P.

2016-11-15

At Sandia National Laboratories, the x-ray generator Manson source model 5 was upgraded from 10 to 25 kV. The purpose of the upgrade is to drive higher characteristics photon energies with higher throughput. In this work we present characterization studies for the source size and the x-ray intensity when varying the source voltage for a series of K-, L-, and M-shell lines emitted from Al, Y, and Au elements composing the anode. We used a 2-pinhole camera to measure the source size and an energy dispersive detector to monitor the spectral content and intensity of the x-ray source. As themore » voltage increases, the source size is significantly reduced and line intensity is increased for the three materials. We can take advantage of the smaller source size and higher source throughput to effectively calibrate the suite of Z Pulsed Power Facility crystal spectrometers.« less

Application of CFD (Fluent) to LNG spills into geometrically complex environments.

PubMed

Gavelli, Filippo; Bullister, Edward; Kytomaa, Harri

2008-11-15

Recent discussions on the fate of LNG spills into impoundments have suggested that the commonly used combination of SOURCE5 and DEGADIS to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distances is not accurate, as it does not account for vapor entrainment by wind. SOURCE5 assumes the vapor layer to grow upward uniformly in the form of a quiescent saturated gas cloud that ultimately spills over impoundment walls. The rate of spillage is then used as the source term for DEGADIS. A more rigorous approach to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distance is to use a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. CFD codes can take into account the physical phenomena that govern the fate of LNG spills into impoundments, such as the mixing between air and the evaporated gas. Before a CFD code can be proposed as an alternate method for the prediction of flammable vapor cloud distances, it has to be validated with proper experimental data. This paper describes the use of Fluent, a widely-used commercial CFD code, to simulate one of the tests in the "Falcon" series of LNG spill tests. The "Falcon" test series was the only series that specifically addressed the effects of impoundment walls and construction obstructions on the behavior and dispersion of the vapor cloud. Most other tests, such as the Coyote and the Burro series, involved spills onto water and relatively flat ground. The paper discusses the critical parameters necessary for a CFD model to accurately predict the behavior of a cryogenic spill in a geometrically complex domain, and presents comparisons between the gas concentrations measured during the Falcon-1 test and those predicted using Fluent. Finally, the paper discusses the effect vapor barriers have in containing part of the spill thereby shortening the ignitable vapor cloud and therefore the required hazard area. This issue was addressed by comparing the Falcon-1 simulation (spill into the impoundment) with the simulation of an identical spill without any impoundment walls, or obstacles within the impoundment area.

Numerical modeling of flows and pollutant dispersion within and above urban street canyons under unstable thermal stratification by large-eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Ming-Chung; Liu, Chun-Ho

2013-04-01

Recently, with the ever increasing urban areas in developing countries, the problem of air pollution due to vehicular exhaust arouses the concern of different groups of people. Understanding how different factors, such as urban morphology, meteorological conditions and human activities, affect the characteristics of street canyon ventilation, pollutant dispersion above urban areas and pollutant re-entrainment from the shear layer can help us improve air pollution control strategies. Among the factors mentioned above, thermal stratification is a significant one determining the pollutant transport behaviors in certain situation, e.g. when the urban surface is heated by strong solar radiation, which, however, is still not widely explored. The objective of this study is to gain an in-depth understanding of the effects of unstable thermal stratification on the flows and pollutant dispersion within and above urban street canyons through numerical modeling using large-eddy simulation (LES). In this study, LES equipped with one-equation subgrid-scale (SGS) model is employed to model the flows and pollutant dispersion within and above two-dimensional (2D) urban street canyons (flanked by idealized buildings, which are square solid bars in these models) under different intensities of unstable thermal stratifications. Three building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios, 0.5, 1 and 2, are included in this study as a representation of different building densities. The prevailing wind flow above the urban canopy is driven by background pressure gradient, which is perpendicular to the street axis, while the condition of unstable thermal stratification is induced by applying a higher uniform temperature on the no-slip urban surface. The relative importance between stratification and background wind is characterized by the Richardson number, with zero value as a neutral case and negative value as an unstable case. The buoyancy force is modeled by Boussinesq approximation and the intensity of stratification is controlled by the gravitational acceleration. The urban characteristic is modeled by periodic boundary conditions at the domain inlet-outlet and spanwise extent, so as to simulate the infinitely long and wide urban area. Pollutant dispersion is modeled by scalar transport with the pollutant area source on the ground of the first street canyon and by open boundary condition at the domain outlet. The numerical models are solved with incremental time steps until it reaches the pseudo steady-state. Afterwards, a set of data is collected for each model such that the temporal averages of mean and fluctuating field variables do not vary significantly if more time steps are included. It is found that the ventilation performance is improved and the plume dispersion in shear layer is enhanced when the stratification is more unstable. The mean flows, turbulent transports of pollutant and momentum, pollutant concentration fields in different unstable stratifications will be discussed with profile and contour plots. The ventilation performance of a street canyon evaluated by air exchange rate (ACH) and pollutant exchange rate (PCH) at roof level and the plume dispersion characterized by the mean plume height and dispersion coefficient in shear layer will also be discussed.

Estimating nitrogen loading and far-field dispersal potential from background sources and coastal finfish aquaculture: A simple framework and case study in Atlantic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIver, R.; Milewski, I.; Loucks, R.; Smith, R.

2018-05-01

Far-field nutrient impacts associated with finfish aquaculture have been identified as a topic of concern for regulators, managers, scientists, and the public for over two decades but disentangling aquaculture impacts from those caused by other natural and anthropogenic sources has impeded the development of monitoring metrics and management plans. We apply a bulk, steady-state nitrogen loading model (NLM) framework to estimate the annual input of Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) from point and non-point sources to the watershed surrounding Port Mouton Bay, Nova Scotia (Canada). We then use the results of the NLM together with estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading from a sea-cage trout farm in the Bay and progressive vector diagrams to illustrate potential patterns of DIN dispersal from the trout farm. Our estimated anthropogenic nitrogen contribution to Port Mouton Bay from all terrestrial and atmospheric sources is ∼211,703 kg TDN/year with atmospheric deposition accounting for almost all (98.6%). At a stocking level of ∼400,000 rainbow trout, the Port Mouton Bay sea-cage farm increases the annual anthropogenic TDN loading to the bay by 14.4% or 30,400 kg. Depending on current flow rates, nitrogen flux from the trout farm can be more than double the background concentrations of TDN near the farm site. Although it is unlikely that nitrogen loading from this single fish farm is saturating the DIN requirements of the entire bay, progressive vector diagrams suggest that the dispersal potential may be insufficient to mitigate potential symptoms of eutrophication associated with nitrogen fluxes. We present an accessible and user-friendly tool for managers to estimate baseline nutrient loading in relation to aquaculture and our use of progressive vector diagrams illustrate a practical and simple method for characterizing potential nutrient dispersal based on local conditions and spatial scales. Our study joins numerous studies which have highlighted the need for more effective monitoring and assessment methods to improve the detection of aquaculture effects at far-field scales and to assess those effects in relation to other natural and anthropogenic factors impacting coastal habitats.

Resolving precipitation-induced water content profiles through inversion of dispersive GPR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangel, A. R.; Moysey, S. M.; Van Der Kruk, J.

2015-12-01

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has become a popular tool for monitoring hydrologic processes. When monitoring infiltration, the thin wetted zone that occurs near the ground surface at early times may act as a dispersive waveguide. This low-velocity layer traps the GPR waves, causing specific frequencies of the signal to travel at different phase velocities, confounding standard traveltime analysis. In a previous numerical study we demonstrated the potential of dispersion analysis for estimating the depth distribution of waveguide water contents. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of the methodology when applying it to experimental time-lapse dispersive GPR data collected during a laboratory infiltration experiment in a relatively homogenous soil. A large sand-filled tank is equipped with an automated gantry to independently control the position of 1000 MHz source and receiver antennas. The system was programmed to repeatedly collect a common mid-point (CMP) profile at the center of the tank followed by two constant offset profiles (COP) in the x and y direction. Each collection was completed in 30 s and repeated 50 times during a 28 min experiment. Two minutes after the start of measurements, the surface of the sand was irrigated at a constant flux rate of 0.006 cm/sec for 23 minutes. Time-lapse COPs show increases in traveltime to reflectors in the tank associated with increasing water content, as well as the development of a wetting front reflection. From 4-10 min, the CMPs show a distinct shingling characteristic that is indicative of waveguide dispersion. Forward models where the waveguide is conceptualized as discrete layers and a piece-wise linear function were used to invert picked dispersion curves for waveguide properties. We show the results from both inversion approaches for multiple dispersive CMPs and show how the single layer model fails to represent the gradational nature of the wetting front.

An Internal Thermal Environment Model of an Aluminized Solid Rocket Motor with Experimental Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Heath T.

2015-01-01

Due to the severity of the internal solid rocket motor (SRM) environment, very few direct measurements of that environment exist; therefore, the appearance of such data provides a unique opportunity to assess current thermal/fluid modeling capabilities. As part of a previous study of SRM internal insulation performance, the internal thermal environment of a laboratory-scale SRM featuring aluminized propellant was characterized with two types of custom heat-flux calorimeters: one that measured the total heat flux to a graphite slab within the SRM chamber and another that measured the thermal radiation flux. Therefore, in the current study, a thermal/fluid model of this lab-scale SRM was constructed using ANSYS Fluent to predict not only the flow field structure within the SRM and the convective heat transfer to the interior walls, but also the resulting dispersion of alumina droplets and the radiative heat transfer to the interior walls. The dispersion of alumina droplets within the SRM chamber was determined by employing the Lagrangian discrete phase model that was fully coupled to the Eulerian gas-phase flow. The P1-approximation was engaged to model the radiative heat transfer through the SRM chamber where the radiative contributions of the gas phase were ignored and the aggregate radiative properties of the alumina dispersion were computed from the radiative properties of its individual constituent droplets, which were sourced from literature. The convective and radiative heat fluxes computed from the thermal/fluid model were then compared with those measured in the lab-scale SRM test firings and the modeling approach evaluated.

Modelling and mapping trace element accumulation in Sphagnum peatlands at the European scale using a geomatic model of pollutant emissions dispersion.

PubMed

Diaz-de-Quijano, Maria; Joly, Daniel; Gilbert, Daniel; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Franchi, Marielle; Fallot, Jean-Michel; Bernard, Nadine

2016-07-01

Trace elements (TEs) transported by atmospheric fluxes can negatively impact isolated ecosystems. Modelling based on moss-borne TE accumulation makes tracking TE deposition in remote areas without monitoring stations possible. Using a single moss species from ombrotrophic hummock peatlands reinforces estimate quality. This study used a validated geomatic model of particulate matter dispersion to identify the origin of Cd, Zn, Pb and Cu accumulated in Sphagnum capillifolium and the distance transported from their emission sources. The residential and industrial sectors of particulate matter emissions showed the highest correlations with the TEs accumulated in S. capillifolium (0.28(Zn)-0.56(Cu)) and (0.27(Zn)-0.47(Cu), respectively). Distances of dispersion varied depending on the sector of emissions and the considered TE. The greatest transportation distances for mean emissions values were found in the industrial (10.6 km when correlating with all TEs) and roads sectors (13 km when correlating with Pb). The residential sector showed the shortest distances (3.6 km when correlating with Cu, Cd, and Zn). The model presented here is a new tool for evaluating the efficacy of air pollution abatement policies in non-monitored areas and provides high-resolution (200 × 200 m) maps of TE accumulation that make it possible to survey the potential impacts of TEs on isolated ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for emissions source apportionment in industrial areas: MM5/CALPUFF in a near-field application.

PubMed

Ghannam, K; El-Fadel, M

2013-02-01

This paper examines the relative source contribution to ground-level concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 microm) in a coastal urban area due to emissions from an industrial complex with multiple stacks, quarrying activities, and a nearby highway. For this purpose, an inventory of CO, oxide of nitrogen (NO(x)), and PM10 emissions was coupled with the non-steady-state Mesoscale Model 5/California Puff Dispersion Modeling system to simulate individual source contributions under several spatial and temporal scales. As the contribution of a particular source to ground-level concentrations can be evaluated by simulating this single-source emissions or otherwise total emissions except that source, a set of emission sensitivity simulations was designed to examine if CALPUFF maintains a linear relationship between emission rates and predicted concentrations in cases where emitted plumes overlap and chemical transformations are simulated. Source apportionment revealed that ground-level releases (i.e., highway and quarries) extended over large areas dominated the contribution to exposure levels over elevated point sources, despite the fact that cumulative emissions from point sources are higher. Sensitivity analysis indicated that chemical transformations of NO(x) are insignificant, possibly due to short-range plume transport, with CALPUFF exhibiting a linear response to changes in emission rate. The current paper points to the significance of ground-level emissions in contributing to urban air pollution exposure and questions the viability of the prevailing paradigm of point-source emission reduction, especially that the incremental improvement in air quality associated with this common abatement strategy may not accomplish the desirable benefit in terms of lower exposure with costly emissions capping. The application of atmospheric dispersion models for source apportionment helps in identifying major contributors to regional air pollution. In industrial urban areas where multiple sources with different geometry contribute to emissions, ground-level releases extended over large areas such as roads and quarries often dominate the contribution to ground-level air pollution. Industrial emissions released at elevated stack heights may experience significant dilution, resulting in minor contribution to exposure at ground level. In such contexts, emission reduction, which is invariably the abatement strategy targeting industries at a significant investment in control equipment or process change, may result in minimal return on investment in terms of improvement in air quality at sensitive receptors.

A stochastically forced time delay solar dynamo model: Self-consistent recovery from a maunder-like grand minimum necessitates a mean-field alpha effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu; Passos, Dário, E-mail: s.hazra@iiserkol.ac.in, E-mail: dariopassos@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: dnandi@iiserkol.ac.in

Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspotmore » cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.« less

Landscape influences on dispersal behaviour: a theoretical model and empirical test using the fire salamander, Salamandra infraimmaculata.

PubMed

Kershenbaum, Arik; Blank, Lior; Sinai, Iftach; Merilä, Juha; Blaustein, Leon; Templeton, Alan R

2014-06-01

When populations reside within a heterogeneous landscape, isolation by distance may not be a good predictor of genetic divergence if dispersal behaviour and therefore gene flow depend on landscape features. Commonly used approaches linking landscape features to gene flow include the least cost path (LCP), random walk (RW), and isolation by resistance (IBR) models. However, none of these models is likely to be the most appropriate for all species and in all environments. We compared the performance of LCP, RW and IBR models of dispersal with the aid of simulations conducted on artificially generated landscapes. We also applied each model to empirical data on the landscape genetics of the endangered fire salamander, Salamandra infraimmaculata, in northern Israel, where conservation planning requires an understanding of the dispersal corridors. Our simulations demonstrate that wide dispersal corridors of the low-cost environment facilitate dispersal in the IBR model, but inhibit dispersal in the RW model. In our empirical study, IBR explained the genetic divergence better than the LCP and RW models (partial Mantel correlation 0.413 for IBR, compared to 0.212 for LCP, and 0.340 for RW). Overall dispersal cost in salamanders was also well predicted by landscape feature slope steepness (76%), and elevation (24%). We conclude that fire salamander dispersal is well characterised by IBR predictions. Together with our simulation findings, these results indicate that wide dispersal corridors facilitate, rather than hinder, salamander dispersal. Comparison of genetic data to dispersal model outputs can be a useful technique in inferring dispersal behaviour from population genetic data.

A simple analytical method for determining the atmospheric dispersion of upward-directed high velocity releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, E.

The evaluation of atmospheric dispersion of a cloud, arising from a sudden release of flammable or toxic materials, is an essential tool for properly designing flares, vents and other safety devices and to quantify the potential risk related to the existing ones or arising from the various kinds of accidents which can occur in chemical plants. Among the methods developed to treat the important case of upward-directed jets, Hoehne's procedure for determining the behaviour and extent of flammability zone is extensively utilized, particularly concerning petrochemical plants. In a previous study, a substantial simplification of the aforesaid procedure was achieved, by correlating the experimental data with an empirical formula, allowing to obtain a mathematical description of the boundaries of the flammable cloud. Following a theoretical approach, a most general model is developed in the present work, applicable to the various kinds of design problems and/or risk evaluation regarding upward-directed releases from high velocity sources. It is also demonstrated that the model gives conservative results, if applied outside the range of the Hoehne's experimental conditions. Moreover, with simple modifications, the same approach could be easily applied to deal with the atmospheric dispersion of anyhow directed releases.

[Applications of GIS in biomass energy source research].

PubMed

Su, Xian-Ming; Wang, Wu-Kui; Li, Yi-Wei; Sun, Wen-Xiang; Shi, Hai; Zhang, Da-Hong

2010-03-01

Biomass resources have the characteristics of widespread and dispersed distribution, which have close relations to the environment, climate, soil, and land use, etc. Geographic information system (GIS) has the functions of spatial analysis and the flexibility of integrating with other application models and algorithms, being of predominance to the biomass energy source research. This paper summarized the researches on the GIS applications in biomass energy source research, with the focus in the feasibility study of bioenergy development, assessment of biomass resources amount and distribution, layout of biomass exploitation and utilization, evaluation of gaseous emission from biomass burning, and biomass energy information system. Three perspectives of GIS applications in biomass energy source research were proposed, i. e., to enrich the data source, to improve the capacity on data processing and decision-support, and to generate the online proposal.

Energy and pitch angle-dispersed auroral electrons suggesting a time-variable, inverted-V potential structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnoldy, R. L.; Lynch, K. A.; Austin, J. B.; Kintner, P. M.

1999-10-01

High temporal resolution electron detectors aboard the PHAZE II rocket flight have shown that the energy-dispersed, field-aligned bursts (FABs) are time coincident with pitch angle-dispersed electrons having energies at the maximum voltage of the inverted-V potential. This modulation of the energetic inverted-V electrons is superimposed upon an energy-diffused background resulting in a peak-to-valley ratio of ~2 for the pitch angle-dispersed electrons. Since the characteristic energy of the FABs, the order of an eV, is considerably less than that of the plasma sheet electrons (the order of a keV) presumably falling through the inverted-V potential to create the discrete aurora, the modulation mechanism has to be independent of the electron temperature. The mechanism must accelerate the cold electrons over a range of energies from the inverted-V energy down to a few tens of eV. It must do this at the same time it is creating a population of hot, pitch angle-dispersed electrons at the inverted-V energy. Both the energy dispersion of the FABs and the pitch angle dispersion of the inverted-V electrons can be used to determine a source height assuming both populations start from the same source region at the same time. These calculations give source heights between 3500 and 5300 km for various events and disagreement between the two methods the order of 20%, which is within the rather substantial error limits of both calculations. A simple mechanism of providing a common start time for both populations of electrons would be a turning on/off of a spatially limited (vertically), inverted-V potential. The energy-dispersed FABs can be reconstructed at rocket altitudes if one assumes that cold electrons are accelerated to an energy determined by how much of the inverted-V potential they fall through when it is turned on. Similarly, the pitch angle-dispersed, inverted-V electrons can be modeled at rocket altitudes if one assumes that the plasma sheet electrons falling through the entire potential drop all start to do so at the same time when the potential is turned on. The FABs seem to fluctuate at either ~10 Hz or near 100 Hz. An important constraint of the on/off mechanism is whether cold electrons (1 eV) can fill the inverted-V volume during the off cycle. The maximum vertical height of the 10 kV potential region for the 10 Hz events would be the order of 100 and 10 km for the 100 Hz events. To get 10 kV, these heights require parallel electric fields of 0.1 and 1 V/m respectively for the 10 and 100 Hz events assuming that the filling is along B from below the inverted-V potential. Alternative mechanisms are also discussed in the light of the data presented.

You Can Run, But You Can't Hide Juniper Pollen Phenology and Dispersal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.

2013-01-01

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al., 2003 reported Juniperus spp. pollen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al. 2001) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust. We are modified the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. Pollen release is estimated based on MODIS derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities are used as verification. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

The Inclusion of Thermal Emissions Within the SASKTRAN Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, K. L.; Bourassa, A. E.; Lloyd, N. D.; Degenstein, D. A.

2013-12-01

The SASKTRAN radiative transfer model developed at the University of Saskatchewan has a long heritage associated with simulations of spectrally dispersed limb scattered sunlight. Recent advancements in the SASKTRAN model have allowed for the inclusion of thermal emissions, as a new source of light, originating within the atmosphere and from the ground. Within the model these thermal emissions are then subsequently propagated through the atmosphere while being scattered and absorbed in the exact same fashion as if sunlight were the source of photons. This development allows for the use of the existing and elaborate SASKTRAN infrastructure in the near infrared where scattering of sunlight and thermal emissions contribute with similar fractions to the total intensity of any atmospheric radiance measurement. This paper details the changes to the SASKTRAN model required to accurately simulate scattered thermal emissions and presents results related to the remote sensing of atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane from satellite platforms.

A Marriage Of Larval Modeling And Empirical Data: Linking Adult, Larval And Juvenile Scallops In An Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, S.; Wahle, R.; Brooks, D. A.; Brady, D. C.

2016-02-01

The giant sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, is a commercially valuable sedentary broadcast spawner that occupies offshore banks and coastal bays and estuaries in the Northwest Atlantic. Although area closures have helped repopulate depleted scallop populations, little is known about whether populations at densities that yield larvae supply local or distant populations. Surveying scallop populations in the Damariscotta River estuary in Maine during the 2013 and 2014 spawning seasons, and settling out spat bags to collect settling larvae along the gradient of the estuary, we were able to compare adult densities to newly settled juvenile (`spat') abundance. Using the location where we found a high density of adults, we incorporated previously published behavior, pelagic larval duration, wind and current data into a particle dispersal model within the estuary to determine likely sinks for larvae from the 2013 and 2014 spawning seasons. Preliminary model simulations demonstrate where in the estuary swimming is effective in affecting water column position for larvae, and that most larvae are retained much closer to the mouth of the estuary than previously expected. Combining larval dispersal modeling with empirical data on adult densities and spat settlement on the scale of an embayment or estuary may be helpful in determining sources, sinks and areas that are both sources and sinks for shellfish species that are endangered or economically critical. This may aid in determining small area closures or Marine Protected Areas along coastal regions in the Gulf of Maine and beyond.

Computer model of two-dimensional solute transport and dispersion in ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.; Bredehoeft, J.D.

1978-01-01

This report presents a model that simulates solute transport in flowing ground water. The model is both general and flexible in that it can be applied to a wide range of problem types. It is applicable to one- or two-dimensional problems involving steady-state or transient flow. The model computes changes in concentration over time caused by the processes of convective transport, hydrodynamic dispersion, and mixing (or dilution) from fluid sources. The model assumes that the solute is non-reactive and that gradients of fluid density, viscosity, and temperature do not affect the velocity distribution. However, the aquifer may be heterogeneous and (or) anisotropic. The model couples the ground-water flow equation with the solute-transport equation. The digital computer program uses an alternating-direction implicit procedure to solve a finite-difference approximation to the ground-water flow equation, and it uses the method of characteristics to solve the solute-transport equation. The latter uses a particle- tracking procedure to represent convective transport and a two-step explicit procedure to solve a finite-difference equation that describes the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion, fluid sources and sinks, and divergence of velocity. This explicit procedure has several stability criteria, but the consequent time-step limitations are automatically determined by the program. The report includes a listing of the computer program, which is written in FORTRAN IV and contains about 2,000 lines. The model is based on a rectangular, block-centered, finite difference grid. It allows the specification of any number of injection or withdrawal wells and of spatially varying diffuse recharge or discharge, saturated thickness, transmissivity, boundary conditions, and initial heads and concentrations. The program also permits the designation of up to five nodes as observation points, for which a summary table of head and concentration versus time is printed at the end of the calculations. The data input formats for the model require three data cards and from seven to nine data sets to describe the aquifer properties, boundaries, and stresses. The accuracy of the model was evaluated for two idealized problems for which analytical solutions could be obtained. In the case of one-dimensional flow the agreement was nearly exact, but in the case of plane radial flow a small amount of numerical dispersion occurred. An analysis of several test problems indicates that the error in the mass balance will be generally less than 10 percent. The test problems demonstrated that the accuracy and precision of the numerical solution is sensitive to the initial number of particles placed in each cell and to the size of the time increment, as determined by the stability criteria. Mass balance errors are commonly the greatest during the first several time increments, but tend to decrease and stabilize with time.

Aqueous Solution Vessel Thermal Model Development II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buechler, Cynthia Eileen

2015-10-28

The work presented in this report is a continuation of the work described in the May 2015 report, “Aqueous Solution Vessel Thermal Model Development”. This computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model aims to predict the temperature and bubble volume fraction in an aqueous solution of uranium. These values affect the reactivity of the fissile solution, so it is important to be able to calculate them and determine their effects on the reaction. Part A of this report describes some of the parameter comparisons performed on the CFD model using Fluent. Part B describes the coupling of the Fluent model with amore » Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) neutron transport model. The fuel tank geometry is the same as it was in the May 2015 report, annular with a thickness-to-height ratio of 0.16. An accelerator-driven neutron source provides the excitation for the reaction, and internal and external water cooling channels remove the heat. The model used in this work incorporates the Eulerian multiphase model with lift, wall lubrication, turbulent dispersion and turbulence interaction. The buoyancy-driven flow is modeled using the Boussinesq approximation, and the flow turbulence is determined using the k-ω Shear-Stress-Transport (SST) model. The dispersed turbulence multiphase model is employed to capture the multiphase turbulence effects.« less

Development of a methodology examining the behaviours of VOCs source apportionment with micro-meteorology analysis in an urban and industrial area.

PubMed

Xiang, Yang; Delbarre, Hervé; Sauvage, Stéphane; Léonardis, Thierry; Fourmentin, Marc; Augustin, Patrick; Locoge, Nadine

2012-03-01

During summer 2009, online measurements of 25 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from C6 to C10 as well as micro-meteorological parameters were simultaneously performed in the industrial city of Dunkerque. With the obtained data set, we developed a methodology to examine how the contributions of different source categories depend on atmospheric turbulences, and the results provided identification of emission modes. Eight factors were resolved by using Positive Matrix Factorization model and three of them were associated with mixed sources. The observed behaviours of contributions with turbulences lead to attribute some factors with sources at ground level, and some other factors with sources in the upper part of surface layer. The impact of vertical turbulence on the pollutant dispersion is also affected by the distance between sources and receptor site. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigations of VOCs in and around buildings close to service stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicklin, William; Farrugia, Pierre S.; Sinagra, Emmanuel

2018-01-01

Gas service stations are one of the major sources of volatile organic compounds in urban environments. Their emissions are expected not only to affect the ambient air quality but also that in any nearby buildings. This is particularly the case in Malta where most service stations have been built within residential zones. For this reason, it is important to understand the dispersion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from service stations and their infiltration into nearby residences. Two models were considered; one to predict the dispersion of VOCs in the outdoor environment in the vicinity of the service station and another one to predict the filtration of the compounds indoors. The two models can be used in tandem to predict the concentration of indoor VOCs that originate from a service station in the vicinity. Outdoor and indoor concentrations of VOCs around a service station located in a street canyon were measured, and the results used to validate the models. Predictions made using the models were found to be in general agreement with the measured concentrations of the pollutants.

Response of a shell structure subject to distributed harmonic excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Rui; Bolton, J. Stuart

2016-09-01

Previously, a coupled, two-dimensional structural-acoustic ring model was constructed to simulate the dynamic and acoustical behavior of pneumatic tires. Analytical forced solutions were obtained and were experimentally verified through laser velocimeter measurement made using automobile tires. However, the two-dimensional ring model is incapable of representing higher order, in-plane modal motion in either the circumferential or axial directions. Therefore, in this paper, a three-dimensional pressurized circular shell model is proposed to study the in-plane shearing motion and the effect of different forcing conditions. Closed form analytical solutions were obtained for both free and forced vibrations of the shell under simply supported boundary conditions. Dispersion relations were calculated and different wave types were identified by their different speeds. Shell surface mobility results under various input distributions were also studied and compared. Spatial Fourier series decompositions were also performed on the spatial mobility results to give the forced dispersion relations, which illustrate clearly the influence of input force spatial distribution. Such a model has practical application in identifying the sources of noise and vibration problems in automotive tires.

A spatial analysis of the dispersion of transportation induced carbon monoxide using the Gaussian line source method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Suryati, I.; Gusrianti, D.

2018-03-01

The Purpose of this study is to model the spatial distribution of transportation induced carbon monoxide (CO) from a street, i.e. Jl. Singamangaraja, in Medan City using the gaussian line source method with GIS. It is observed that the traffic volume on the Jl. Singamangaraja is 7,591 units/hour in the morning and 7,433 units/hour in the afternoon. The amount emission rate is 49,171.7 µg/m.s in the morning and 46,943.1 µg/m.s in the afternoon. Based on the gaussian line source method, the highest CO concentration is found at the roadside, i.e. 20,340 µg/Nm3 in the morning and 18,340 µg/Nm3 in the afternoon, which are fairly in agreement with those measured in situ. Using GIS, the CO spatial distribution can visually be modeled to observe the affected area.

BIASES IN PHYSICAL PARAMETER ESTIMATES THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL LENSING MAGNIFICATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Er Xinzhong; Ge Junqiang; Mao Shude, E-mail: xer@nao.cas.cn

2013-06-20

We study the lensing magnification effect on background galaxies. Differential magnification due to different magnifications of different source regions of a galaxy will change the lensed composite spectra. The derived properties of the background galaxies are therefore biased. For simplicity, we model galaxies as a superposition of an axis-symmetric bulge and a face-on disk in order to study the differential magnification effect on the composite spectra. We find that some properties derived from the spectra (e.g., velocity dispersion, star formation rate, and metallicity) are modified. Depending on the relative positions of the source and the lens, the inferred results canmore » be either over- or underestimates of the true values. In general, for an extended source at strong lensing regions with high magnifications, the inferred physical parameters (e.g., metallicity) can be strongly biased. Therefore, detailed lens modeling is necessary to obtain the true properties of the lensed galaxies.« less

Étude comparative des techniques d'analyse par fluorescence X à dispersion d'énergie (ED-XRF) et à dispersion de longueur d'onde (WD-XRF), et par spectrométrie d'émission atomique à source plasma couplée par induction (ICP-AES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, A.; Benyaïch, F.; Bounakhla, M.; Bilal, E.; Moutte, J.; Gruffat, J. J.; Zahry, F.

2004-11-01

Dans ce travail, nous présentons une étude comparative des techniques d'analyse par fluorescence X à dispersion d'énergie (ED-XRF) et à dispersion de longueur d'onde (WD-XRF), et par spectrométrie d'émission atomique à source plasma couplée par induction (ICP-AES). Les résultats de la calibration des spectromètres à dispersion d'énergie, à excitation par sources radioactives (55Fe, 109Cd et 241Am) et à excitation secondaire (cible secondaire Mo et Cu) du Centre National pour l'Energie, les Sciences et les Techniques Nucléaires (CNESTEN, Rabat, Maroc) sur des échantillons étalons de références de l'Agence International de l'Energie Atomique (AIEA) et du Community Bureau of Référence (BCR) ont été comparés aux résultats d'analyse des mêmes échantillons étalons par la spectrométrie X à dispersion de longueur d'onde (WD-XRF) et par spectrométrie d'émission atomique à source plasma couplé par induction (ICP-AES) au département GENERIC du centre SPIN à l'Ecole des Mines de Saint-Etienne (France). Les trois techniques d'analyse utilisées donnent des résultats comparables pour le dosage des éléments majeurs, alors que pour les traces on note des déviations importantes à cause des effets de matrice qui sont difficiles à corriger dans le cas de la fluorescence X.

Location identification for indoor instantaneous point contaminant source by probability-based inverse Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Liu, X; Zhai, Z

2008-02-01

Indoor pollutions jeopardize human health and welfare and may even cause serious morbidity and mortality under extreme conditions. To effectively control and improve indoor environment quality requires immediate interpretation of pollutant sensor readings and accurate identification of indoor pollution history and source characteristics (e.g. source location and release time). This procedure is complicated by non-uniform and dynamic contaminant indoor dispersion behaviors as well as diverse sensor network distributions. This paper introduces a probability concept based inverse modeling method that is able to identify the source location for an instantaneous point source placed in an enclosed environment with known source release time. The study presents the mathematical models that address three different sensing scenarios: sensors without concentration readings, sensors with spatial concentration readings, and sensors with temporal concentration readings. The paper demonstrates the inverse modeling method and algorithm with two case studies: air pollution in an office space and in an aircraft cabin. The predictions were successfully verified against the forward simulation settings, indicating good capability of the method in finding indoor pollutant sources. The research lays a solid ground for further study of the method for more complicated indoor contamination problems. The method developed can help track indoor contaminant source location with limited sensor outputs. This will ensure an effective and prompt execution of building control strategies and thus achieve a healthy and safe indoor environment. The method can also assist the design of optimal sensor networks.

Effects of pore-scale dispersion, degree of heterogeneity, sampling size, and source volume on the concentration moments of conservative solutes in heterogeneous formations

Treesearch

Daniele Tonina; Alberto Bellin

2008-01-01

Pore-scale dispersion (PSD), aquifer heterogeneity, sampling volume, and source size influence solute concentrations of conservative tracers transported in heterogeneous porous formations. In this work, we developed a new set of analytical solutions for the concentration ensemble mean, variance, and coefficient of variation (CV), which consider the effects of all these...

SETI Searches for Radio Transients from Kepler Field Planets and Astropulse Candidates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Abhimat Krishna; Siemion, Andrew; Korpela, Eric J.; Cobb, Jeff; Lebofsky, Matt; Werthimer, Dan

2014-06-01

We present a search for fast radio transients in targeted observations of planet candidates in the Kepler Field and candidate Astropulse sources.Kepler Field observations were conducted in the band 1.1 and 1.9 GHz using the Green Bank Telescope in Green Bank, West Virginia and are centered on 86 stars hosting candidate planets identified by the Kepler spacecraft. These stars were chosen based on the properties of their putative planetary system thought to be conducive to the development of advanced life, including all systems known (as of May 2011) hosting a Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) with a calculated equilibrium temperature between 230 and 380 K, at least 4 KOIs or a KOI with an inferred radius < 3.0 r_earth and a period > 50 d. The Kepler Field is centered at an intermediate galactic latitude, b = 13.5°, which presents an additional opportunity to detect signals from the older population of millisecond and recycled pulsars located above the galactic plane.The Astropulse radio survey searches for brief wide-band pulses in a 2.5 MHz band centered at 1420 MHz using commensal data recorded from the Arecibo ALFA receiver. In early Astropulse analysis, 108 candidate sources were identified that passed a series of tests designed to eliminate potential sources of radio frequency interference (RFI). We have performed targeted re-observations of these sources at Arecibo over the full (1214-1536 MHz) ALFA band.We have developed a software pipeline to locate fast dispersed transients in these observations, leveraging components of the PRESTO software library. This pipeline consists of finding and removing RFI, conducting de-dispersion to remove the effects of dispersion from the interstellar medium (ISM) on the signal and identifying over- threshold events. We also perform de-dispersion at negative dispersion measures, proposed to be a potential technique for intelligent civilizations to distinguish their emission from natural sources. We carry out both a periodicity and single-pulse search on de-dispersed time series. The outputs from these steps are examined to look for both technological and astrophysical sources of impulsive radio emission.

A technique for marking first-stage larvae of the gypsy moth for dispersal studies

Treesearch

Thomas M. Odell; Ian H. von Lindern

1976-01-01

Zinc cadmium sulfide fluorescent particles can be used to mark first stage larvae of the gypsy moth, Porthetria dispar (L.), without effecting changes in their development and behavior. Marked larvae dispersed readily; so the technique could be used to correlate dispersed larvae with any particular source point.

Ambient noise tomography with non-uniform noise sources and low aperture networks: case study of deep geothermal reservoirs in northern Alsace, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehujeur, Maximilien; Vergne, Jérôme; Maggi, Alessia; Schmittbuhl, Jean

2017-01-01

We developed and applied a method for ambient noise surface wave tomography that can deal with noise cross-correlation functions governed to first order by a non-uniform distribution of the ambient seismic noise sources. The method inverts the azimuthal distribution of noise sources that are assumed to be far from the network, together with the spatial variations of the phase and group velocities on an optimized irregular grid. Direct modelling of the two-sided noise correlation functions avoids dispersion curve picking on every station pair and minimizes analyst intervention. The method involves station pairs spaced by distances down to a fraction of a wavelength, thereby bringing additional information for tomography. After validating the method on synthetic data, we applied it to a set of long-term continuous waveforms acquired around the geothermal sites at Soultz-sous-Forêts and Rittershoffen (Northern Alsace, France). For networks with limited aperture, we show that taking the azimuthal variations of the noise energy into account has significant impact on the surface wave dispersion maps. We obtained regional phase and group velocity models in the 1-7 s period range, which is sensitive to the structures encompassing the geothermal reservoirs. The ambient noise in our dataset originates from two main directions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, and is dominated by the first Rayleigh wave overtone in the 2-5 s period range.