An Improved Method for Seismic Event Depth and Moment Tensor Determination: CTBT Related Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stachnik, J.; Rozhkov, M.; Baker, B.

2016-12-01

According to the Protocol to CTBT, International Data Center is required to conduct expert technical analysis and special studies to improve event parameters and assist State Parties in identifying the source of specific event. Determination of seismic event source mechanism and its depth is a part of these tasks. It is typically done through a strategic linearized inversion of the waveforms for a complete or subset of source parameters, or similarly defined grid search through precomputed Greens Functions created for particular source models. We show preliminary results using the latter approach from an improved software design and applied on a moderately powered computer. In this development we tried to be compliant with different modes of CTBT monitoring regime and cover wide range of source-receiver distances (regional to teleseismic), resolve shallow source depths, provide full moment tensor solution based on body and surface waves recordings, be fast to satisfy both on-demand studies and automatic processing and properly incorporate observed waveforms and any uncertainties a priori as well as accurately estimate posteriori uncertainties. Implemented HDF5 based Green's Functions pre-packaging allows much greater flexibility in utilizing different software packages and methods for computation. Further additions will have the rapid use of Instaseis/AXISEM full waveform synthetics added to a pre-computed GF archive. Along with traditional post processing analysis of waveform misfits through several objective functions and variance reduction, we follow a probabilistic approach to assess the robustness of moment tensor solution. In a course of this project full moment tensor and depth estimates are determined for DPRK 2009, 2013 and 2016 events and shallow earthquakes using a new implementation of waveform fitting of teleseismic P waves. A full grid search over the entire moment tensor space is used to appropriately sample all possible solutions. A recent method by Tape & Tape (2012) to discretize the complete moment tensor space from a geometric perspective is used. Moment tensors for DPRK events show isotropic percentages greater than 50%. Depth estimates for the DPRK events range from 1.0-1.4 km. Probabilistic uncertainty estimates on the moment tensor parameters provide robustness to solution.

Run-up Variability due to Source Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Giudice, Tania; Zolezzi, Francesca; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

This paper investigates the variability of tsunami run-up at a specific location due to uncertainty in earthquake source parameters. It is important to quantify this 'inter-event' variability for probabilistic assessments of tsunami hazard. In principal, this aspect of variability could be studied by comparing field observations at a single location from a number of tsunamigenic events caused by the same source. As such an extensive dataset does not exist, we decided to study the inter-event variability through numerical modelling. We attempt to answer the question 'What is the potential variability of tsunami wave run-up at a specific site, for a given magnitude earthquake occurring at a known location'. The uncertainty is expected to arise from the lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture 'source' parameters. The following steps were followed: the statistical distributions of the main earthquake source parameters affecting the tsunami height were established by studying fault plane solutions of known earthquakes; a case study based on a possible tsunami impact on Egypt coast has been set up and simulated, varying the geometrical parameters of the source; simulation results have been analyzed deriving relationships between run-up height and source parameters; using the derived relationships a Monte Carlo simulation has been performed in order to create the necessary dataset to investigate the inter-event variability of the run-up height along the coast; the inter-event variability of the run-up height along the coast has been investigated. Given the distribution of source parameters and their variability, we studied how this variability propagates to the run-up height, using the Cornell 'Multi-grid coupled Tsunami Model' (COMCOT). The case study was based on the large thrust faulting offshore the south-western Greek coast, thought to have been responsible for the infamous 1303 tsunami. Numerical modelling of the event was used to assess the impact on the North African coast. The effects of uncertainty in fault parameters were assessed by perturbing the base model, and observing variation on wave height along the coast. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7 E and 33.8 E. To assess the effects of fault parameters uncertainty, input model parameters have been varied and effects on run-up have been analyzed. The simulations show that for a given point there are linear relationships between run-up and both fault dislocation and rupture length. A superposition analysis shows that a linear combination of the effects of the different source parameters (evaluated results) leads to a good approximation of the simulated results. This relationship is then used as the basis for a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation was performed for 1600 scenarios at each of the 4020 points along the coast. The coefficient of variation (the ratio between standard deviation of the results and the average of the run-up heights along the coast) is comprised between 0.14 and 3.11 with an average value along the coast equal to 0.67. The coefficient of variation of normalized run-up has been compared with the standard deviation of spectral acceleration attenuation laws used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies. These values have a similar meaning, and the uncertainty in the two cases is similar. The 'rule of thumb' relationship between mean and sigma can be expressed as follows: ?+ σ ≈ 2?. The implication is that the uncertainty in run-up estimation should give a range of values within approximately two times the average. This uncertainty should be considered in tsunami hazard analysis, such as inundation and risk maps, evacuation plans and the other related steps.

Gravitational wave signature of a mini creation event (MCE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhurandhar, S. V.; Narlikar, J. V.

2018-07-01

In light of the recent discoveries of binary black hole events and one neutron star event by the advanced LIGO (aLIGO) and advanced Virgo (aVirgo) detectors, we propose a new astrophysical source, namely, the mini creation event (MCE) as a possible source of gravitational waves (GW) to be detected by advanced detectors. The MCE is at the heart of the quasi steady state cosmology (QSSC) and is not expected to occur in standard cosmology. Generically, the MCE is anisotropic and we assume a Bianchi Tpye I model for its description. We compute its signature waveform and assume masses, distances analogous to the events detected. The striking feature of the waveform associated with this model of the MCE is that it depends only on one amplitude parameter and thus allows for simpler data analysis. By matched filtering the signal we find that, for a broad range of model parameters, the signal to noise ratio of the randomly oriented MCE is sufficiently high for a confident detection by aLIGO and aVirgo. We therefore propose the MCE as a viable astrophysical source of GW. The detection or non-detection of such a source also hold implications for QSSC, namely, whether it is a viable cosmology or not.

ADVANCED WAVEFORM SIMULATION FOR SEISMIC MONITORING EVENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helmberger, Donald V.; Tromp, Jeroen; Rodgers, Arthur J.

2008-10-17

This quarter, we have focused on several tasks: (1) Building a high-quality catalog of earthquake source parameters for the Middle East and East Asia. In East Asia, we computed source parameters using the CAP method for a set of events studied by Herrman et al., (MRR, 2006) using a complete waveform technique. Results indicated excellent agreement with the moment magnitudes in the range 3.5 -5.5. Below magnitude 3.5 the scatter increases. For events with more than 2-3 observations at different azimuths, we found good agreement of focal mechanisms. Depths were generally consistent, although differences of up to 10 km weremore » found. These results suggest that CAP modeling provides estimates of source parameters at least as reliable as complete waveform modeling techniques. However, East Asia and the Yellow Sea Korean Paraplatform (YSKP) region studied are relatively laterally homogeneous and may not benefit from the CAP method’s flexibility to shift waveform segments to account for path-dependent model errors. A more challenging region to study is the Middle East where strong variations in sedimentary basin, crustal thickness and crustal and mantle seismic velocities greatly impact regional wave propagation. We applied the CAP method to a set of events in and around Iran and found good agreement between estimated focal mechanisms and those reported by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog. We found a possible bias in the moment magnitudes that may be due to the thick low-velocity crust in the Iranian Plateau. (2) Testing Methods on a Lifetime Regional Data Set. In particular, the recent 2/21/08 Nevada Event and Aftershock Sequence occurred in the middle of USArray, producing over a thousand records per event. The tectonic setting is quite similar to Central Iran and thus provides an excellent testbed for CAP+ at ranges out to 10°, including extensive observations of crustal thinning and thickening and various Pnl complexities. Broadband modeling in 1D, 2D, and 3D will be presented. (3) Shallow Crustal Structure and Sparse Network Source Inversions for Southern California. We conducted a detailed test of a recently developed technique, CAPloc, in recovering source parameters including location and depth based on tomographic maps. We tested two-station solutions against 160 well determined events which worked well except for paths crossing deep basins and along mountain ridges.« less

A fast and robust method for moment tensor and depth determination of shallow seismic events in CTBT related studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Ben; Stachnik, Joshua; Rozhkov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

International Data Center is required to conduct expert technical analysis and special studies to improve event parameters and assist State Parties in identifying the source of specific event according to the protocol to the Protocol to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Determination of seismic event source mechanism and its depth is closely related to these tasks. It is typically done through a strategic linearized inversion of the waveforms for a complete or subset of source parameters, or similarly defined grid search through precomputed Greens Functions created for particular source models. In this presentation we demonstrate preliminary results obtained with the latter approach from an improved software design. In this development we tried to be compliant with different modes of CTBT monitoring regime and cover wide range of source-receiver distances (regional to teleseismic), resolve shallow source depths, provide full moment tensor solution based on body and surface waves recordings, be fast to satisfy both on-demand studies and automatic processing and properly incorporate observed waveforms and any uncertainties a priori as well as accurately estimate posteriori uncertainties. Posterior distributions of moment tensor parameters show narrow peaks where a significant number of reliable surface wave observations are available. For earthquake examples, fault orientation (strike, dip, and rake) posterior distributions also provide results consistent with published catalogues. Inclusion of observations on horizontal components will provide further constraints. In addition, the calculation of teleseismic P wave Green's Functions are improved through prior analysis to determine an appropriate attenuation parameter for each source-receiver path. Implemented HDF5 based Green's Functions pre-packaging allows much greater flexibility in utilizing different software packages and methods for computation. Further additions will have the rapid use of Instaseis/AXISEM full waveform synthetics added to a pre-computed GF archive. Along with traditional post processing analysis of waveform misfits through several objective functions and variance reduction, we follow a probabilistic approach to assess the robustness of moment tensor solution. In a course of this project full moment tensor and depth estimates are determined for DPRK events and shallow earthquakes using a new implementation of teleseismic P waves waveform fitting. A full grid search over the entire moment tensor space is used to appropriately sample all possible solutions. A recent method by Tape & Tape (2012) to discretize the complete moment tensor space from a geometric perspective is used. Probabilistic uncertainty estimates on the moment tensor parameters provide robustness to solution.

Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

Effects of long-term fluid injection on induced seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude in northwestern part of The Geysers geothermal field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Martínez-Garzón, Patricia; Dresen, Georg; Bohnhoff, Marco; Sone, Hiroki; Hartline, Craig

2015-10-01

The long-term temporal and spatial changes in statistical, source, and stress characteristics of one cluster of induced seismicity recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (U.S.) are analyzed in relation to the field operations, fluid migration, and constraints on the maximum likely magnitude. Two injection wells, Prati-9 and Prati-29, located in the northwestern part of the field and their associated seismicity composed of 1776 events recorded throughout a 7 year period were analyzed. The seismicity catalog was relocated, and the source characteristics including focal mechanisms and static source parameters were refined using first-motion polarity, spectral fitting, and mesh spectral ratio analysis techniques. The source characteristics together with statistical parameters (b value) and cluster dynamics were used to investigate and understand the details of fluid migration scheme in the vicinity of injection wells. The observed temporal, spatial, and source characteristics were clearly attributed to fluid injection and fluid migration toward greater depths, involving increasing pore pressure in the reservoir. The seasonal changes of injection rates were found to directly impact the shape and spatial extent of the seismic cloud. A tendency of larger seismic events to occur closer to injection wells and a correlation between the spatial extent of the seismic cloud and source sizes of the largest events was observed suggesting geometrical constraints on the maximum likely magnitude and its correlation to the average injection rate and volume of fluids present in the reservoir.

Effect of parameters in moving average method for event detection enhancement using phase sensitive OTDR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Yong-Seok; Naeem, Khurram; Jeon, Min Yong; Kwon, Il-bum

2017-04-01

We analyze the relations of parameters in moving average method to enhance the event detectability of phase sensitive optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR). If the external events have unique frequency of vibration, then the control parameters of moving average method should be optimized in order to detect these events efficiently. A phase sensitive OTDR was implemented by a pulsed light source, which is composed of a laser diode, a semiconductor optical amplifier, an erbium-doped fiber amplifier, a fiber Bragg grating filter, and a light receiving part, which has a photo-detector and high speed data acquisition system. The moving average method is operated with the control parameters: total number of raw traces, M, number of averaged traces, N, and step size of moving, n. The raw traces are obtained by the phase sensitive OTDR with sound signals generated by a speaker. Using these trace data, the relation of the control parameters is analyzed. In the result, if the event signal has one frequency, then the optimal values of N, n are existed to detect the event efficiently.

W phase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes (1990-2010)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duputel, Zacharie; Rivera, Luis; Kanamori, Hiroo; Hayes, Gavin P.

2012-01-01

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. Mw≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the source rupture. To accelerate centroid moment tensor (CMT) determinations, we have developed a source inversion algorithm based on modelling of the W phase, a very long period phase (100–1000 s) arriving at the same time as the P wave. The purpose of this work is to finely tune and validate the algorithm for large-to-moderate-sized earthquakes using three components of W phase ground motion at teleseismic distances. To that end, the point source parameters of all Mw≥ 6.5 earthquakes that occurred between 1990 and 2010 (815 events) are determined using Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Global Seismographic Network broad-band stations and STS1 global virtual networks of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. For each event, a preliminary magnitude obtained from W phase amplitudes is used to estimate the initial moment rate function half duration and to define the corner frequencies of the passband filter that will be applied to the waveforms. Starting from these initial parameters, the seismic moment tensor is calculated using a preliminary location as a first approximation of the centroid. A full CMT inversion is then conducted for centroid timing and location determination. Comparisons with Harvard and Global CMT solutions highlight the robustness of W phase CMT solutions at teleseismic distances. The differences in Mw rarely exceed 0.2 and the source mechanisms are very similar to one another. Difficulties arise when a target earthquake is shortly (e.g. within 10 hr) preceded by another large earthquake, which disturbs the waveforms of the target event. To deal with such difficult situations, we remove the perturbation caused by earlier disturbing events by subtracting the corresponding synthetics from the data. The CMT parameters for the disturbed event can then be retrieved using the residual seismograms. We also explore the feasibility of obtaining source parameters of smaller earthquakes in the range 6.0 ≤Mw w= 6 or larger.

Joint probabilistic determination of earthquake location and velocity structure: application to local and regional events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beucler, E.; Haugmard, M.; Mocquet, A.

2016-12-01

The most widely used inversion schemes to locate earthquakes are based on iterative linearized least-squares algorithms and using an a priori knowledge of the propagation medium. When a small amount of observations is available for moderate events for instance, these methods may lead to large trade-offs between outputs and both the velocity model and the initial set of hypocentral parameters. We present a joint structure-source determination approach using Bayesian inferences. Monte-Carlo continuous samplings, using Markov chains, generate models within a broad range of parameters, distributed according to the unknown posterior distributions. The non-linear exploration of both the seismic structure (velocity and thickness) and the source parameters relies on a fast forward problem using 1-D travel time computations. The a posteriori covariances between parameters (hypocentre depth, origin time and seismic structure among others) are computed and explicitly documented. This method manages to decrease the influence of the surrounding seismic network geometry (sparse and/or azimuthally inhomogeneous) and a too constrained velocity structure by inferring realistic distributions on hypocentral parameters. Our algorithm is successfully used to accurately locate events of the Armorican Massif (western France), which is characterized by moderate and apparently diffuse local seismicity.

Intercorrelation of P and Pn Recordings for the North Korean Nuclear Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, T.; Voytan, D.; Ohman, J.

2017-12-01

The relative waveform analysis procedure called Intercorrelation is applied to Pn and P waveforms at regional and teleseismic distances, respectively, for the 5 underground nuclear tests at the North Korean nuclear test site. Intercorrelation is a waveform equalization procedure that parameterizes the effective source function for a given explosion, including the reduced velocity potential convolved with a simplified Green's function that accounts for the free surface reflections (pPn and pP), and possibly additional arrivals such as spall. The source function for one event is convolved with the signal at a given station for a second event, and the recording at the same station for the first event is convolved with the source function for the second event. This procedure eliminates the need to predict the complex receiver function effects at the station, which are typically not well-known for short-period response. The parameters of the source function representation are yield and burial depth, and an explosion source model is required. Here we use the Mueller-Murphy representation of the explosion reduced velocity potential, which explicitly depends on yield and burial depth. We then search over yield and burial depth ranges for both events, constrained by a priori information about reasonable ranges of parameters, to optimize the simultaneous match of multiple station signals for the two events. This procedure, applied to the apparently overburied North Korean nuclear tests (no indications of spall complexity), assuming simple free surface interactions (elastic reflection from a flat surface), provides excellent waveform equalization for all combinations of 5 nuclear tests.

Source parameters for small events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake determined using empirical Green functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Frankel, A.

1990-01-01

Using small events as empirical Green functions, source parameters were estimated for 25 ML 3.4 to 4.4 events associated with the 1986 North Palm Springs earthquake. The static stress drops ranged from 3 to 80 bars, for moments of 0.7 to 11 ?? 1021 dyne-cm. There was a spatial pattern to the stress drops of the aftershocks which showed increasing values along the fault plane toward the northwest compared to relatively low values near the hypocenter of the mainshock. The highest values were outside the main area of slip, and are believed to reflect a loaded area of the fault that still has an higher level of stress which was not released during the main shock. -from Authors

Estimating and Testing the Sources of Evoked Potentials in the Brain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huizenga, Hilde M.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

The source of an event-related brain potential (ERP) is estimated from multivariate measures of ERP on the head under several mathematical and physical constraints on the parameters of the source model. Statistical aspects of estimation are discussed, and new tests are proposed. (SLD)

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harabaglia, Paolo

1993-01-01

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Preliminary Result of Earthquake Source Parameters the Mw 3.4 at 23:22:47 IWST, August 21, 2004, Centre Java, Indonesia Based on MERAMEX Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laksono, Y. A.; Brotopuspito, K. S.; Suryanto, W.; Widodo; Wardah, R. A.; Rudianto, I.

2018-03-01

In order to study the structure subsurface at Merapi Lawu anomaly (MLA) using forward modelling or full waveform inversion, it needs a good earthquake source parameters. The best result source parameter comes from seismogram with high signal to noise ratio (SNR). Beside that the source must be near the MLA location and the stations that used as parameters must be outside from MLA in order to avoid anomaly. At first the seismograms are processed by software SEISAN v10 using a few stations from MERAMEX project. After we found the hypocentre that match the criterion we fine-tuned the source parameters using more stations. Based on seismogram from 21 stations, it is obtained the source parameters as follows: the event is at August, 21 2004, on 23:22:47 Indonesia western standard time (IWST), epicentre coordinate -7.80°S, 101.34°E, hypocentre 47.3 km, dominant frequency f0 = 3.0 Hz, the earthquake magnitude Mw = 3.4.

Gravitational wave source counts at high redshift and in models with extra dimensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

García-Bellido, Juan; Nesseris, Savvas; Trashorras, Manuel, E-mail: juan.garciabellido@uam.es, E-mail: savvas.nesseris@csic.es, E-mail: manuel.trashorras@csic.es

2016-07-01

Gravitational wave (GW) source counts have been recently shown to be able to test how gravitational radiation propagates with the distance from the source. Here, we extend this formalism to cosmological scales, i.e. the high redshift regime, and we discuss the complications of applying this methodology to high redshift sources. We also allow for models with compactified extra dimensions like in the Kaluza-Klein model. Furthermore, we also consider the case of intermediate redshifts, i.e. 0 < z ∼< 1, where we show it is possible to find an analytical approximation for the source counts dN / d ( S /more » N ). This can be done in terms of cosmological parameters, such as the matter density Ω {sub m} {sub ,0} of the cosmological constant model or the cosmographic parameters for a general dark energy model. Our analysis is as general as possible, but it depends on two important factors: a source model for the black hole binary mergers and the GW source to galaxy bias. This methodology also allows us to obtain the higher order corrections of the source counts in terms of the signal-to-noise S / N . We then forecast the sensitivity of future observations in constraining GW physics but also the underlying cosmology by simulating sources distributed over a finite range of signal-to-noise with a number of sources ranging from 10 to 500 sources as expected from future detectors. We find that with 500 events it will be possible to provide constraints on the matter density parameter at present Ω {sub m} {sub ,0} on the order of a few percent and with the precision growing fast with the number of events. In the case of extra dimensions we find that depending on the degeneracies of the model, with 500 events it may be possible to provide stringent limits on the existence of the extra dimensions if the aforementioned degeneracies can be broken.« less

An event database for rotational seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvermoser, Johannes; Hadziioannou, Celine; Hable, Sarah; Chow, Bryant; Krischer, Lion; Wassermann, Joachim; Igel, Heiner

2016-04-01

The ring laser sensor (G-ring) located at Wettzell, Germany, routinely observes earthquake-induced rotational ground motions around a vertical axis since its installation in 2003. Here we present results from a recently installed event database which is the first that will provide ring laser event data in an open access format. Based on the GCMT event catalogue and some search criteria, seismograms from the ring laser and the collocated broadband seismometer are extracted and processed. The ObsPy-based processing scheme generates plots showing waveform fits between rotation rate and transverse acceleration and extracts characteristic wavefield parameters such as peak ground motions, noise levels, Love wave phase velocities and waveform coherence. For each event, these parameters are stored in a text file (json dictionary) which is easily readable and accessible on the website. The database contains >10000 events starting in 2007 (Mw>4.5). It is updated daily and therefore provides recent events at a time lag of max. 24 hours. The user interface allows to filter events for epoch, magnitude, and source area, whereupon the events are displayed on a zoomable world map. We investigate how well the rotational motions are compatible with the expectations from the surface wave magnitude scale. In addition, the website offers some python source code examples for downloading and processing the openly accessible waveforms.

Small-Scale Gravity Waves in ER-2 MMS/MTP Wind and Temperature Measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, L.; Alexander, M. J.; Bui, T. P.; Mahoney, M. J.

2006-01-01

Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs) at the aircraft's flight level (typically approximately 20 km altitude). For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform) was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of approximately 5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, approximately 20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus cloud models.

Source mechanisms and source parameters of March 10 and September 13, 2007, United Arab Emirates Earthquakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzooqi, Y A; Abou Elenean, K M; Megahed, A S

2008-02-29

On March 10 and September 13, 2007 two felt earthquakes with moment magnitudes 3.66 and 3.94 occurred in the eastern part of United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two events were accompanied by few smaller events. Being well recorded by the digital UAE and Oman digital broadband stations, they provide us an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic process and present day stress field acting on this area. In this study, we determined the focal mechanisms of the two main shocks by two methods (polarities of P and regional waveform inversion). Our results indicate a normal faulting mechanism with slight strikemore » slip component for the two studied events along a fault plane trending NNE-SSW in consistent a suggested fault along the extension of the faults bounded Bani Hamid area. The Seismicity distribution between two earthquake sequences reveals a noticeable gap that may be a site of a future event. The source parameters (seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault radius, stress drop and displacement across the fault) were also estimated based on the far field displacement spectra and interpreted in the context of the tectonic setting.« less

Observed ground-motion variabilities and implication for source properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotton, F.; Bora, S. S.; Bindi, D.; Specht, S.; Drouet, S.; Derras, B.; Pina-Valdes, J.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges of seismology is to be able to calibrate and analyse the physical factors that control earthquake and ground-motion variabilities. Within the framework of empirical ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) developments, ground-motions residuals (differences between recorded ground motions and the values predicted by a GMPE) are computed. The exponential growth of seismological near-field records and modern regression algorithms allow to decompose these residuals into between-event and a within-event residual components. The between-event term quantify all the residual effects of the source (e.g. stress-drops) which are not accounted by magnitude term as the only source parameter of the model. Between-event residuals provide a new and rather robust way to analyse the physical factors that control earthquake source properties and associated variabilities. We first will show the correlation between classical stress-drops and between-event residuals. We will also explain why between-event residuals may be a more robust way (compared to classical stress-drop analysis) to analyse earthquake source-properties. We will finally calibrate between-events variabilities using recent high-quality global accelerometric datasets (NGA-West 2, RESORCE) and datasets from recent earthquakes sequences (Aquila, Iquique, Kunamoto). The obtained between-events variabilities will be used to evaluate the variability of earthquake stress-drops but also the variability of source properties which cannot be explained by a classical Brune stress-drop variations. We will finally use the between-event residual analysis to discuss regional variations of source properties, differences between aftershocks and mainshocks and potential magnitude dependencies of source characteristics.

Empirical Ground Motion Characterization of Induced Seismicity in Alberta and Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovic, M.; Atkinson, G. M.; Assatourians, K.

2017-12-01

We develop empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for ground motions from induced earthquakes in Alberta and Oklahoma following the stochastic-model-based method of Atkinson et al. (2015 BSSA). The Oklahoma ground-motion database is compiled from over 13,000 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 5.8) recorded at 1600 seismic stations, at distances from 1 to 750 km. The Alberta database is compiled from over 200 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 4.2) recorded at 50 regional stations, at distances from 30 to 500 km. A generalized inversion is used to solve for regional source, attenuation and site parameters. The obtained parameters describe the regional attenuation, stress parameter and site amplification. Resolving these parameters allows for the derivation of regionally-calibrated GMPEs that can be used to compare ground motion observations between waste water injection (Oklahoma) and hydraulic fracture induced events (Alberta), and further compare induced observations with ground motions resulting from natural sources (California, NGAWest2). The derived GMPEs have applications for the evaluation of hazards from induced seismicity and can be used to track amplitudes across the regions in real time, which is useful for ground-motion-based alerting systems and traffic light protocols.

Quantitative microbial faecal source tracking with sampling guided by hydrological catchment dynamics.

PubMed

Reischer, G H; Haider, J M; Sommer, R; Stadler, H; Keiblinger, K M; Hornek, R; Zerobin, W; Mach, R L; Farnleitner, A H

2008-10-01

The impairment of water quality by faecal pollution is a global public health concern. Microbial source tracking methods help to identify faecal sources but the few recent quantitative microbial source tracking applications disregarded catchment hydrology and pollution dynamics. This quantitative microbial source tracking study, conducted in a large karstic spring catchment potentially influenced by humans and ruminant animals, was based on a tiered sampling approach: a 31-month water quality monitoring (Monitoring) covering seasonal hydrological dynamics and an investigation of flood events (Events) as periods of the strongest pollution. The detection of a ruminant-specific and a human-specific faecal Bacteroidetes marker by quantitative real-time PCR was complemented by standard microbiological and on-line hydrological parameters. Both quantitative microbial source tracking markers were detected in spring water during Monitoring and Events, with preponderance of the ruminant-specific marker. Applying multiparametric analysis of all data allowed linking the ruminant-specific marker to general faecal pollution indicators, especially during Events. Up to 80% of the variation of faecal indicator levels during Events could be explained by ruminant-specific marker levels proving the dominance of ruminant faecal sources in the catchment. Furthermore, soil was ruled out as a source of quantitative microbial source tracking markers. This study demonstrates the applicability of quantitative microbial source tracking methods and highlights the prerequisite of considering hydrological catchment dynamics in source tracking study design.

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Slip Behavior and Source Parameters for Spontaneous Slip Events on Rough Faults Subjected to Slow Tectonic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, Yuval; Hager, Bradford H.

2018-02-01

We study the response to slow tectonic loading of rough faults governed by velocity weakening rate and state friction, using a 2-D plane strain model. Our numerical approach accounts for all stages in the seismic cycle, and in each simulation we model a sequence of two earthquakes or more. We focus on the global behavior of the faults and find that as the roughness amplitude, br, increases and the minimum wavelength of roughness decreases, there is a transition from seismic slip to aseismic slip, in which the load on the fault is released by more slip events but with lower slip rate, lower seismic moment per unit length, M0,1d, and lower average static stress drop on the fault, Δτt. Even larger decreases with roughness are observed when these source parameters are estimated only for the dynamic stage of the rupture. For br ≤ 0.002, the source parameters M0,1d and Δτt decrease mutually and the relationship between Δτt and the average fault strain is similar to that of a smooth fault. For faults with larger values of br that are completely ruptured during the slip events, the average fault strain generally decreases more rapidly with roughness than Δτt.

Transient Volcano Deformation Event Detection over Variable Spatial Scales in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. D.; Rude, C. M.; Gowanlock, M.; Herring, T.; Pankratius, V.

2016-12-01

Transient deformation events driven by volcanic activity can be monitored using increasingly dense networks of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) ground stations. The wide spatial extent of GPS networks, the large number of GPS stations, and the spatially and temporally varying scale of deformation events result in the mixing of signals from multiple sources. Typical analysis then necessitates manual identification of times and regions of volcanic activity for further study and the careful tuning of algorithmic parameters to extract possible transient events. Here we present a computer-aided discovery system that facilitates the discovery of potential transient deformation events at volcanoes by providing a framework for selecting varying spatial regions of interest and for tuning the analysis parameters. This site specification step in the framework reduces the spatial mixing of signals from different volcanic sources before applying filters to remove interfering signals originating from other geophysical processes. We analyze GPS data recorded by the Plate Boundary Observatory network and volcanic activity logs from the Alaska Volcano Observatory to search for and characterize transient inflation events in Alaska. We find 3 transient inflation events between 2008 and 2015 at the Akutan, Westdahl, and Shishaldin volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands. The inflation event detected in the first half of 2008 at Akutan is validated other studies, while the inflation events observed in early 2011 at Westdahl and in early 2013 at Shishaldin are previously unreported. Our analysis framework also incorporates modelling of the transient inflation events and enables a comparison of different magma chamber inversion models. Here, we also estimate the magma sources that best describe the deformation observed by the GPS stations at Akutan, Westdahl, and Shishaldin. We acknowledge support from NASA AIST-NNX15AG84G (PI: V. Pankratius).

Estimation of Source and Attenuation Parameters from Ground Motion Observations for Induced Seismicity in Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovic, M.; Atkinson, G. M.

2015-12-01

We use a generalized inversion to solve for site response, regional source and attenuation parameters, in order to define a region-specific ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) from ground motion observations in Alberta, following the method of Atkinson et al. (2015 BSSA). The database is compiled from over 200 small to moderate seismic events (M 1 to 4.2) recorded at ~50 regional stations (distances from 30 to 500 km), over the last few years; almost all of the events have been identified as being induced by oil and gas activity. We remove magnitude scaling and geometric spreading functions from observed ground motions and invert for stress parameter, regional attenuation and site amplification. Resolving these parameters allows for the derivation of a regionally-calibrated GMPE that can be used to accurately predict amplitudes across the region in real time, which is useful for ground-motion-based alerting systems and traffic light protocols. The derived GMPE has further applications for the evaluation of hazards from induced seismicity.

Seismic source parameters of the induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal area, California, by a generalized inversion approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, Matteo; Oth, Adrien; Parolai, Stefano; Bindi, Dino; De Landro, Grazia; Amoroso, Ortensia

2017-04-01

The accurate determination of stress drop, seismic efficiency and how source parameters scale with earthquake size is an important for seismic hazard assessment of induced seismicity. We propose an improved non-parametric, data-driven strategy suitable for monitoring induced seismicity, which combines the generalized inversion technique together with genetic algorithms. In the first step of the analysis the generalized inversion technique allows for an effective correction of waveforms for the attenuation and site contributions. Then, the retrieved source spectra are inverted by a non-linear sensitivity-driven inversion scheme that allows accurate estimation of source parameters. We therefore investigate the earthquake source characteristics of 633 induced earthquakes (ML 2-4.5) recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (California) by a dense seismic network (i.e., 32 stations of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Geysers/Calpine surface seismic network, more than 17.000 velocity records). We find for most of the events a non-selfsimilar behavior, empirical source spectra that requires ωγ source model with γ > 2 to be well fitted and small radiation efficiency ηSW. All these findings suggest different dynamic rupture processes for smaller and larger earthquakes, and that the proportion of high frequency energy radiation and the amount of energy required to overcome the friction or for the creation of new fractures surface changes with the earthquake size. Furthermore, we observe also two distinct families of events with peculiar source parameters that, in one case suggests the reactivation of deep structures linked to the regional tectonics, while in the other supports the idea of an important role of steeply dipping fault in the fluid pressure diffusion.

Assessing the Uncertainties on Seismic Source Parameters: Towards Realistic Estimates of Moment Tensor Determinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnoni, F.; Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.

2014-12-01

Seismic moment tensor is one of the most important source parameters defining the earthquake dimension and style of the activated fault. Moment tensor catalogues are ordinarily used by geoscientists, however, few attempts have been done to assess possible impacts of moment magnitude uncertainties upon their own analysis. The 2012 May 20 Emilia mainshock is a representative event since it is defined in literature with a moment magnitude value (Mw) spanning between 5.63 and 6.12. An uncertainty of ~0.5 units in magnitude leads to a controversial knowledge of the real size of the event. The possible uncertainty associated to this estimate could be critical for the inference of other seismological parameters, suggesting caution for seismic hazard assessment, coulomb stress transfer determination and other analyses where self-consistency is important. In this work, we focus on the variability of the moment tensor solution, highlighting the effect of four different velocity models, different types and ranges of filtering, and two different methodologies. Using a larger dataset, to better quantify the source parameter uncertainty, we also analyze the variability of the moment tensor solutions depending on the number, the epicentral distance and the azimuth of used stations. We endorse that the estimate of seismic moment from moment tensor solutions, as well as the estimate of the other kinematic source parameters, cannot be considered an absolute value and requires to come out with the related uncertainties and in a reproducible framework characterized by disclosed assumptions and explicit processing workflows.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the April 1, 2006 Tai-Tung Earthquake Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Lin, C.

2010-12-01

The Tai-Tung earthquake (ML=6.2) occurred at the southeastern part of Taiwan on April 1, 2006. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at five stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method was used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green’s function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called “source spectral ratio fitting method” which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tai-Tung mainshock in 2006 was estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with synthetics using empirical Green’s function method. The size of the asperity is about 3.5 km length along the strike direction by 7.0 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the left-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the right-upper direction.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the December 16, 1993 Tapu Earthquake, Taiwan, Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.-C.; Lin, C.-Y.

2012-04-01

The Tapu earthquake (ML 5.7) occurred at the southwestern part of Taiwan on December 16, 1993. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at eight stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method is used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green's function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called "source spectral ratio fitting method" which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tapu mainshock in 1993 is estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with the synthetic ones using empirical Green's function method. The size of the asperity is about 2.1 km length along the strike direction by 1.5 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the right-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the left-upper direction.

Strong Ground Motion Simulation and Source Modeling of the December 16, 1993 Tapu Earthquake, Taiwan, Using Empirical Green's Function Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Lin, C.

2012-12-01

The Tapu earthquake (ML 5.7) occurred at the southwestern part of Taiwan on December 16, 1993. We examine the source model of this event using the observed seismograms by CWBSN at eight stations surrounding the source area. An objective estimation method is used to obtain the parameters N and C which are needed for the empirical Green's function method by Irikura (1986). This method is called "source spectral ratio fitting method" which gives estimate of seismic moment ratio between a large and a small event and their corner frequencies by fitting the observed source spectral ratio with the ratio of source spectra which obeys the model (Miyake et al., 1999). This method has an advantage of removing site effects in evaluating the parameters. The best source model of the Tapu mainshock in 1993 is estimated by comparing the observed waveforms with the synthetic ones using empirical Green's function method. The size of the asperity is about 2.1 km length along the strike direction by 1.5 km width along the dip direction. The rupture started at the right-bottom of the asperity and extended radially to the left-upper direction.

Binaural room simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehnert, H.; Blauert, Jens; Pompetzki, W.

1991-01-01

In every-day listening the auditory event perceived by a listener is determined not only by the sound signal that a sound emits but also by a variety of environmental parameters. These parameters are the position, orientation and directional characteristics of the sound source, the listener's position and orientation, the geometrical and acoustical properties of surfaces which affect the sound field and the sound propagation properties of the surrounding fluid. A complete set of these parameters can be called an Acoustic Environment. If the auditory event perceived by a listener is manipulated in such a way that the listener is shifted acoustically into a different acoustic environment without moving himself physically, a Virtual Acoustic Environment has been created. Here, we deal with a special technique to set up nearly arbitrary Virtual Acoustic Environments, the Binaural Room Simulation. The purpose of the Binaural Room Simulation is to compute the binaural impulse response related to a virtual acoustic environment taking into account all parameters mentioned above. One possible way to describe a Virtual Acoustic Environment is the concept of the virtual sound sources. Each of the virtual sources emits a certain signal which is correlated but not necessarily identical with the signal emitted by the direct sound source. If source and receiver are non moving, the acoustic environment becomes a linear time-invariant system. Then, the Binaural Impulse Response from the source to a listener' s eardrums contains all relevant auditory information related to the Virtual Acoustic Environment. Listening into the simulated environment can easily be achieved by convolving the Binaural Impulse Response with dry signals and representing the results via headphones.

Identifying ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray accelerators with future ultrahigh-energy neutrino detectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Ke; Miller, M. Coleman; Kotera, Kumiko

2016-12-01

The detection of ultrahigh-energy (UHE) neutrino sources would contribute significantly to solving the decades-old mystery of the origin of the highest-energy cosmic rays. We investigate the ability of a future UHE neutrino detector to identify the brightest neutrino point sources, by exploring the parameter space of the total number of observed events and the angular resolution of the detector. The favored parameter region can be translated to requirements for the effective area, sky coverage and angular resolution of future detectors, for a given source number density and evolution history. Moreover, by studying the typical distance to sources that are expectedmore » to emit more than one event for a given diffuse neutrino flux, we find that a significant fraction of the identifiable UHE neutrino sources may be located in the nearby Universe if the source number density is above ∼10{sup −6} Mpc{sup −3}. If sources are powerful and rare enough, as predicted in blazar scenarios, they can first be detected at distant locations. Our result also suggests that if UHE cosmic-ray accelerators are neither beamed nor transients, it will be possible to associate the detected UHE neutrino sources with nearby UHE cosmic-ray and gamma-ray sources, and that they may also be observed using other messengers, including ones with limited horizons such as TeV gamma rays, UHE gamma rays and cosmic rays. We find that for a ∼>5σ detection of UHE neutrino sources with a uniform density, n {sub s} {sub ∼}10{sup −7}−10{sup −5} Mpc{sup −3}, at least ∼100−1000 events and sub-degree angular resolution are needed, and the results depend on the source evolution model.« less

Identifying ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray accelerators with future ultrahigh-energy neutrino detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ke; Kotera, Kumiko; Miller, M. Coleman; Murase, Kohta; Oikonomou, Foteini

2016-12-01

The detection of ultrahigh-energy (UHE) neutrino sources would contribute significantly to solving the decades-old mystery of the origin of the highest-energy cosmic rays. We investigate the ability of a future UHE neutrino detector to identify the brightest neutrino point sources, by exploring the parameter space of the total number of observed events and the angular resolution of the detector. The favored parameter region can be translated to requirements for the effective area, sky coverage and angular resolution of future detectors, for a given source number density and evolution history. Moreover, by studying the typical distance to sources that are expected to emit more than one event for a given diffuse neutrino flux, we find that a significant fraction of the identifiable UHE neutrino sources may be located in the nearby Universe if the source number density is above ~10-6 Mpc-3. If sources are powerful and rare enough, as predicted in blazar scenarios, they can first be detected at distant locations. Our result also suggests that if UHE cosmic-ray accelerators are neither beamed nor transients, it will be possible to associate the detected UHE neutrino sources with nearby UHE cosmic-ray and gamma-ray sources, and that they may also be observed using other messengers, including ones with limited horizons such as TeV gamma rays, UHE gamma rays and cosmic rays. We find that for a gtrsim5σ detection of UHE neutrino sources with a uniform density, ns~10-7-10-5 Mpc-3, at least ~100-1000 events and sub-degree angular resolution are needed, and the results depend on the source evolution model.

Estimation of splitting functions from Earth's normal mode spectra using the neighbourhood algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachhai, Surya; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Masters, Guy

2016-01-01

The inverse problem for Earth structure from normal mode data is strongly non-linear and can be inherently non-unique. Traditionally, the inversion is linearized by taking partial derivatives of the complex spectra with respect to the model parameters (i.e. structure coefficients), and solved in an iterative fashion. This method requires that the earthquake source model is known. However, the release of energy in large earthquakes used for the analysis of Earth's normal modes is not simple. A point source approximation is often inadequate, and a more complete account of energy release at the source is required. In addition, many earthquakes are required for the solution to be insensitive to the initial constraints and regularization. In contrast to an iterative approach, the autoregressive linear inversion technique conveniently avoids the need for earthquake source parameters, but it also requires a number of events to achieve full convergence when a single event does not excite all singlets well. To build on previous improvements, we develop a technique to estimate structure coefficients (and consequently, the splitting functions) using a derivative-free parameter search, known as neighbourhood algorithm (NA). We implement an efficient forward method derived using the autoregresssion of receiver strips, and this allows us to search over a multiplicity of structure coefficients in a relatively short time. After demonstrating feasibility of the use of NA in synthetic cases, we apply it to observations of the inner core sensitive mode 13S2. The splitting function of this mode is dominated by spherical harmonic degree 2 axisymmetric structure and is consistent with the results obtained from the autoregressive linear inversion. The sensitivity analysis of multiple events confirms the importance of the Bolivia, 1994 earthquake. When this event is used in the analysis, as little as two events are sufficient to constrain the splitting functions of 13S2 mode. Apart from not requiring the knowledge of earthquake source, the newly developed technique provides an approximate uncertainty measure of the structure coefficients and allows us to control the type of structure solved for, for example to establish if elastic structure is sufficient.

Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2014-01-01

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

Source parameters of a M4.8 and its accompanying repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: Implications for the hierarchical structure of asperities and earthquake cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uchida, N.; Matsuzawa, T.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Imanishi, K.; Okada, T.; Hasegawa, A.

2007-01-01

We determine the source parameters of a M4.9 ?? 0.1 'characteristic earthquake' sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at ???50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of Kamaishi, NE Japan. The microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the M4.9 ?? 0.1 events. Our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 M4.8 event. From the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the M4.8 event, we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the M4.8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and/or change in frictional property (healing) at the area. We also infer the patches for the M4.9 ?? 0.1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Analysis, comparison, and modeling of radar interferometry, date of surface deformation signals associated with underground explosions, mine collapses and earthquakes. Phase I: underground explosions, Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foxall, W; Vincent, P; Walter, W

1999-07-23

We have previously presented simple elastic deformation modeling results for three classes of seismic events of concern in monitoring the CTBT--underground explosions, mine collapses and earthquakes. Those results explored the theoretical detectability of each event type using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) based on commercially available satellite data. In those studies we identified and compared the characteristics of synthetic interferograms that distinguish each event type, as well the ability of the interferograms to constrain source parameters. These idealized modeling results, together with preliminary analysis of InSAR data for the 1995 mb 5.2 Solvay mine collapse in southwestern Wyoming, suggested thatmore » InSAR data used in conjunction with regional seismic monitoring holds great potential for CTBT discrimination and seismic source analysis, as well as providing accurate ground truth parameters for regional calibration events. In this paper we further examine the detectability and ''discriminating'' power of InSAR by presenting results from InSAR data processing, analysis and modeling of the surface deformation signals associated with underground explosions. Specifically, we present results of a detailed study of coseismic and postseismic surface deformation signals associated with underground nuclear and chemical explosion tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Several interferograms were formed from raw ERS-1/2 radar data covering different time spans and epochs beginning just prior to the last U.S. nuclear tests in 1992 and ending in 1996. These interferograms have yielded information about the nature and duration of the source processes that produced the surface deformations associated with these events. A critical result of this study is that significant post-event surface deformation associated with underground nuclear explosions detonated at depths in excess of 600 meters can be detected using differential radar interferometry. An immediate implication of this finding is that underground nuclear explosions may not need to be captured coseismically by radar images acquired before and after an event in order to be detectable. This has obvious advantages in CTBT monitoring since suspect seismic events--which usually can be located within a 100 km by 100 km area of an ERS-1/2 satellite frame by established seismic methods-can be imaged after the event has been identified and located by existing regional seismic networks. Key Words: InSAR, SLC images, interferogram, synthetic interferogram, ERS-1/2 frame, phase unwrapping, DEM, coseismic, postseismic, source parameters.« less

Identifying Typhoon Tracks based on Event Synchronization derived Spatially Embedded Climate Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Ugur; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Complex networks are commonly used for investigating spatiotemporal dynamics of complex systems, e.g. extreme rainfall. Especially directed networks are very effective tools in identifying climatic patterns on spatially embedded networks. They can capture the network flux, so as the principal dynamics of spreading significant phenomena. Network measures, such as network divergence, bare the source-receptor relation of the directed networks. However, it is still a challenge how to catch fast evolving atmospheric events, i.e. typhoons. In this study, we propose a new technique, namely Radial Ranks, to detect the general pattern of typhoons forward direction based on the strength parameter of the event synchronization over Japan. We suggest to subset a circular zone of high correlation around the selected grid based on the strength parameter. Radial sums of the strength parameter along vectors within this zone, radial ranks are measured for potential directions, which allows us to trace the network flux over long distances. We employed also the delay parameter of event synchronization to identify and separate the frontal storms' and typhoons' individual behaviors.

Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentiev-Jr, Mikhail; Marchuk, Andrey; Romanenko, Alexey; Simonov, Konstantin; Titov, Vasiliy

2010-05-01

We present general structure and functionality of the proposed Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring (CWTHM). The tool allows interactive monitoring of hazard, tsunami risk assessment, and mitigation - at all stages, from the period of strong tsunamigenic earthquake preparation to inundation of the defended coastal areas. CWTHM is a software-hardware complex with a set of software applications, optimized to achieve best performance on hardware platforms in use. The complex is calibrated for selected tsunami source zone(s) and coastal zone(s) to be defended. The number of zones (both source and coastal) is determined, or restricted, by available hardware resources. The presented complex performs monitoring of selected tsunami source zone via the Internet. The authors developed original algorithms, which enable detection of the preparation zone of the strong underwater earthquake automatically. For the so-determined zone the event time, magnitude and spatial location of tsunami source are evaluated by means of energy of the seismic precursors (foreshocks) analysis. All the above parameters are updated after each foreshock. Once preparing event is detected, several scenarios are forecasted for wave amplitude parameters as well as the inundation zone. Estimations include the lowest and the highest wave amplitudes and the least and the most inundation zone. In addition to that, the most probable case is calculated. In case of multiple defended coastal zones, forecasts and estimates can be done in parallel. Each time the simulated model wave reaches deep ocean buoys or tidal gauge, expected values of wave parameters and inundation zones are updated with historical events information and pre-calculated scenarios. The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package is used for mathematical simulation. The authors suggest code acceleration for deep water wave propagation. As a result, performance is 15 times faster compared to MOST, original version. Performance gain is achieved by compiler options, use of optimized libraries, and advantages of OpenMP parallel technology. Moreover, it is possible to achieve 100 times code acceleration by using modern Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Parallel evaluation of inundation zones for multiple coastal zones is also available. All computer codes can be easily assembled under MS Windows and Unix OS family. Although software is virtually platform independent, the most performance gain is achieved while using the recommended hardware components. When the seismic event occurs, all valuable parameters are updated with seismic data and wave propagation monitoring is enabled. As soon as the wave passes each deep ocean tsunameter, parameters of the initial displacement at source are updated from direct calculations based on original algorithms. For better source reconstruction, a combination of two methods is used: optimal unit source linear combination from preliminary calculated database and direct numerical inversion along the wave ray between real source and particular measurement buoys. Specific dissipation parameter along with the wave ray is also taken into account. During the entire wave propagation process the expected wave parameters and inundation zone(s) characteristics are updated with all available information. If recommended hardware components are used, monitoring results are available in real time. The suggested version of CWTHM has been tested by analyzing seismic precursors (foreshocks) and the measured tsunami waves at North Pacific for the Central Kuril's tsunamigenic earthquake of November 15, 2006.

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves

PubMed Central

Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves.

PubMed

Gopinathan, D; Venugopal, M; Roy, D; Rajendran, K; Guillas, S; Dias, F

2017-09-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems.

Uncertainties for seismic moment tensors and applications to nuclear explosions, volcanic events, and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tape, C.; Alvizuri, C. R.; Silwal, V.; Tape, W.

2017-12-01

When considered as a point source, a seismic source can be characterized in terms of its origin time, hypocenter, moment tensor, and source time function. The seismologist's task is to estimate these parameters--and their uncertainties--from three-component ground motion recorded at irregularly spaced stations. We will focus on one portion of this problem: the estimation of the moment tensor and its uncertainties. With magnitude estimated separately, we are left with five parameters describing the normalized moment tensor. A lune of normalized eigenvalue triples can be used to visualize the two parameters (lune longitude and lune latitude) describing the source type, while the conventional strike, dip, and rake angles can be used to characterize the orientation. Slight modifications of these five parameters lead to a uniform parameterization of moment tensors--uniform in the sense that equal volumes in the coordinate domain of the parameterization correspond to equal volumes of moment tensors. For a moment tensor m that we have inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighborhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in our inference of m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability P(w) and the fractional volume V(w) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius w of m. We apply this approach to several different data sets, including nuclear explosions from the Nevada Test Site, volcanic events from Uturuncu (Bolivia), and earthquakes. Several challenges remain: choosing an appropriate misfit function, handling time shifts between data and synthetic waveforms, and extending the uncertainty estimation to include more source parameters (e.g., hypocenter and source time function).

Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

2018-05-01

Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

Long-period events, the most characteristic seismicity accompanying the emplacement and extrusion of a lava dome in Galeras Volcano, Colombia, in 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gil, Cruz F.; Chouet, B.A.

1997-01-01

Since its reactivation in 1988 the principal eruptions of Galeras Volcano occurred on May 4-9, 1989, July 16, 1992, and January 14, March 23, April 3, April 14 and June 7, 1993. The initial eruption was a phreatic event which clearly marked a new period of activity. A lava dome was extruded within the main crater in October 1991 and subsequently destroyed in an explosive eruption on July 16, 1992. The eruptions that followed were all vulcanian-type explosions. The seismicity accompanying the emplacement, extrusion, and destruction of the lava dome was dominated by a mix of long-period (LP) events and tremor displaying a variety of waveforms. Repetitive LP events with dominant periods in the range 0.2-1 s were observed in October and November 1991 and visually correlated with short energetic pulses of gas venting through a crack bisecting the dome surface. Each LP event was characterized by a weak precursory signal with dominant periods in the range 0.05-0.1 s lasting roughly 7 s. Using the fluid-driven crack model of Chouet (1988, 1992), we infer that two distinct cracks may have acted as sources for the LP and precursor signals. Spectral analyses of the data yield the following parameters for the LP source: crack length, 240-360 m; crack width, 130-150 m; crack aperture, 0.5-3.4 mm; crack stiffness, 100-500; sound speed of fluid, 880 m/s; and excess pressure, 0.01-0.19 MPa. Similar analyses yield the parameters of the precursor source: crack length, 20-30 m; crack width, 15-25 m; crack aperture, 2.3-8.7 mm; crack stiffness, 5-15; sound speed of fluid, 140 m/s; and excess pressure, 0.06-0.15 MPa. Combined with geologic and thermodynamic constraints obtained from field observations, these seismic parameters suggest a gas-release mechanism in which the episodic collapse of a foam layer trapped at the top of the magma column subjacent to the dome releases a slug of pressurized gas which escapes to the surface while dilating a preexisting system of cracks in the dome structure. Accordingly, the fracture observed on the crystallized dome body is the surface extension of the LP-source crack, where LP activity is induced by the rapid emission and expansion of gas flowing through this conduit. The width and aperture of the crack estimated in the model are in good agreement with the length and aperture of the fracture estimated from visual observations. The source parameters of the precursor signal are suggestive of a nozzle-like conduit connecting the LP-source crack to the underlying magma reservoir. Excitation of this conduit segment is attributed to the rapid emission and acceleration of the frothy fluid resulting from the collapse of the foam layer at the top of the reservoir. The calculated periodicity of foam collapse events is in agreement with the observed average rate of thirteen LP events per hour.

Real-Time Event Detection for Monitoring Natural and Source ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The use of event detection systems in finished drinking water systems is increasing in order to monitor water quality in both operational and security contexts. Recent incidents involving harmful algal blooms and chemical spills into watersheds have increased interest in monitoring source water quality prior to treatment. This work highlights the use of the CANARY event detection software in detecting suspected illicit events in an actively monitored watershed in South Carolina. CANARY is an open source event detection software that was developed by USEPA and Sandia National Laboratories. The software works with any type of sensor, utilizes multiple detection algorithms and approaches, and can incorporate operational information as needed. Monitoring has been underway for several years to detect events related to intentional or unintentional dumping of materials into the monitored watershed. This work evaluates the feasibility of using CANARY to enhance the detection of events in this watershed. This presentation will describe the real-time monitoring approach used in this watershed, the selection of CANARY configuration parameters that optimize detection for this watershed and monitoring application, and the performance of CANARY during the time frame analyzed. Further, this work will highlight how rainfall events impacted analysis, and the innovative application of CANARY taken in order to effectively detect the suspected illicit events. This presentation d

SEISMIC SOURCE SCALING AND DISCRIMINATION IN DIVERSE TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R E; Mayeda, K; Walter, W R

2007-07-10

The objectives of this study are to improve low-magnitude regional seismic discrimination by performing a thorough investigation of earthquake source scaling using diverse, high-quality datasets from varied tectonic regions. Local-to-regional high-frequency discrimination requires an estimate of how earthquakes scale with size. Walter and Taylor (2002) developed the MDAC (Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Corrections) method to empirically account for these effects through regional calibration. The accuracy of these corrections has a direct impact on our ability to identify clandestine explosions in the broad regional areas characterized by low seismicity. Unfortunately our knowledge of source scaling at small magnitudes (i.e., m{sub b}more » < {approx}4.0) is poorly resolved. It is not clear whether different studies obtain contradictory results because they analyze different earthquakes, or because they use different methods. Even in regions that are well studied, such as test sites or areas of high seismicity, we still rely on empirical scaling relations derived from studies taken from half-way around the world at inter-plate regions. We investigate earthquake sources and scaling from different tectonic settings, comparing direct and coda wave analysis methods. We begin by developing and improving the two different methods, and then in future years we will apply them both to each set of earthquakes. Analysis of locally recorded, direct waves from events is intuitively the simplest way of obtaining accurate source parameters, as these waves have been least affected by travel through the earth. But there are only a limited number of earthquakes that are recorded locally, by sufficient stations to give good azimuthal coverage, and have very closely located smaller earthquakes that can be used as an empirical Green's function (EGF) to remove path effects. In contrast, coda waves average radiation from all directions so single-station records should be adequate, and previous work suggests that the requirements for the EGF event are much less stringent. We can study more earthquakes using the coda-wave methods, while using direct wave methods for the best recorded subset of events so as to investigate any differences between the results of the two approaches. Finding 'perfect' EGF events for direct wave analysis is difficult, as is ascertaining the quality of a particular EGF event. We develop a multi-taper method to obtain time-domain source-time-functions by frequency division. If an earthquake and EGF event pair are able to produce a clear, time-domain source pulse then we accept the EGF event. We then model the spectral (amplitude) ratio to determine source parameters from both direct P and S waves. We use the well-recorded sequence of aftershocks of the M5 Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake to test the method and also to obtain some of the first accurate source parameters for small earthquakes in eastern North America. We find that the stress drops are high, confirming previous work suggesting that intraplate continental earthquakes have higher stress drops than events at plate boundaries. We simplify and improve the coda wave analysis method by calculating spectral ratios between different sized earthquakes. We first compare spectral ratio performance between local and near-regional S and coda waves in the San Francisco Bay region for moderate-sized events. The average spectral ratio standard deviations using coda are {approx}0.05 to 0.12, roughly a factor of 3 smaller than direct S-waves for 0.2 < f < 15.0 Hz. Also, direct wave analysis requires collocated pairs of earthquakes whereas the event-pairs (Green's function and target events) can be separated by {approx}25 km for coda amplitudes without any appreciable degradation. We then apply coda spectral ratio method to the 1999 Hector Mine mainshock (M{sub w} 7.0, Mojave Desert) and its larger aftershocks. We observe a clear departure from self-similarity, consistent with previous studies using similar regional datasets.« less

Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is similar to that seen in ground motion attenuation correlations used for seismic hazard assessment. The second issue was intra-event variability. This refers to the differences in tsunami wave run-up along a section of coast during a single event. Intra-event variability investigated directly considering field observations. The tsunami events used in the statistical evaluation were selected on the basis of the completeness and reliability of the available data. Tsunami considered for the analysis included the recent and well surveyed tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 (Great Indian Ocean Tsunami), Java 2006, Okushiri 1993, Kocaeli 1999, Messina 1908 and a case study of several historic events in Hawaii. Basic statistical analysis was performed on the field observations from these tsunamis. For events with very wide survey regions, the run-up heights have been grouped in order to maintain a homogeneous distance from the source. Where more than one survey was available for a given event, the original datasets were maintained separately to avoid combination of non-homogeneous data. The observed run-up measurements were used to evaluate the minimum, maximum, average, standard deviation and coefficient of variation for each data set. The minimum coefficient of variation was 0.12 measured for the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami at Nias Island (7 data) while the maximum is 0.98 for the Okushiri 1993 event (93 data). The average coefficient of variation is of the order of 0.45.

PARALLAX AND ORBITAL EFFECTS IN ASTROMETRIC MICROLENSING WITH BINARY SOURCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nucita, A. A.; Paolis, F. De; Ingrosso, G.

2016-06-01

In gravitational microlensing, binary systems may act as lenses or sources. Identifying lens binarity is generally easy, in particular in events characterized by caustic crossing since the resulting light curve exhibits strong deviations from a smooth single-lensing light curve. In contrast, light curves with minor deviations from a Paczyński behavior do not allow one to identify the source binarity. A consequence of gravitational microlensing is the shift of the position of the multiple image centroid with respect to the source star location — the so-called astrometric microlensing signal. When the astrometric signal is considered, the presence of a binary sourcemore » manifests with a path that largely differs from that expected for single source events. Here, we investigate the astrometric signatures of binary sources taking into account their orbital motion and the parallax effect due to the Earth’s motion, which turn out not to be negligible in most cases. We also show that considering the above-mentioned effects is important in the analysis of astrometric data in order to correctly estimate the lens-event parameters.« less

Analysis of Seismic Moment Tensor and Finite-Source Scaling During EGS Resource Development at The Geysers, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, O. S.; Dreger, D. S.; Gritto, R.

2015-12-01

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource development requires knowledge of subsurface physical parameters to quantify the evolution of fracture networks. We investigate seismicity in the vicinity of the EGS development at The Geysers Prati-32 injection well to determine moment magnitude, focal mechanism, and kinematic finite-source models with the goal of developing a rupture area scaling relationship for the Geysers and specifically for the Prati-32 EGS injection experiment. Thus far we have analyzed moment tensors of M ≥ 2 events, and are developing the capability to analyze the large numbers of events occurring as a result of the fluid injection and to push the analysis to smaller magnitude earthquakes. We have also determined finite-source models for five events ranging in magnitude from M 3.7 to 4.5. The scaling relationship between rupture area and moment magnitude of these events resembles that of a published empirical relationship derived for events from M 4.5 to 8.3. We plan to develop a scaling relationship in which moment magnitude and corner frequency are predictor variables for source rupture area constrained by the finite-source modeling. Inclusion of corner frequency in the empirical scaling relationship is proposed to account for possible variations in stress drop. If successful, we will use this relationship to extrapolate to the large numbers of events in the EGS seismicity cloud to estimate the coseismic fracture density. We will present the moment tensor and corner frequency results for the micro earthquakes, and for select events, finite-source models. Stress drop inferred from corner frequencies and from finite-source modeling will be compared.

Deflections of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections and the Properties of Associated Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahler, S. W.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

2012-01-01

The onset times and peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth have long been thought to be influenced by the open magnetic fields of coronal holes (CHs). The original idea was that a CH lying between the solar SEP source region and the magnetic footpoint of the 1 AU observer would result in a delay in onset and/or a decrease in the peak intensity of that SEP event. Recently, Gopalswamy et al. showed that CHs near coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions can deflect fast CMEs from their expected trajectories in space, explaining the appearance of driverless shocks at 1 AU from CMEs ejected near solar central meridian (CM). This suggests that SEP events originating in CME-driven shocks may show variations attributable to CH deflections of the CME trajectories. Here, we use a CH magnetic force parameter to examine possible effects of CHs on the timing and intensities of 41 observed gradual E approx 20 MeV SEP events with CME source regions within 20 deg. of CM. We find no systematic CH effects on SEP event intensity profiles. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the CME leading-edge measured position angles and SEP event properties, suggesting that the widths of CME-driven shock sources of the SEPs are much larger than the CMEs. Independently of the SEP event properties, we do find evidence for significant CME deflections by CH fields in these events

Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of rupture process application in shakemaps of Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kun, C.

2015-12-01

Studies have shown that estimates of ground motion parameter from ground motion attenuation relationship often greater than the observed value, mainly because multiple ruptures of the big earthquake reduce the source pulse height of source time function. In the absence of real-time data of the station after the earthquake, this paper attempts to make some constraints from the source, to improve the accuracy of shakemaps. Causative fault of Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake is vertical approximately (dip 83 °), and source process in time and space was dispersive distinctly. Main shock of Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake can be divided into several sub-events based on source process of this earthquake. Magnitude of each sub-events depended on each area under the curve of source pulse of source time function, and location derived from source process of each sub-event. We use ShakeMap method with considering the site effect to generate shakeMap for each sub-event, respectively. Finally, ShakeMaps of mainshock can be aquired from superposition of shakemaps for all the sub-events in space. Shakemaps based on surface rupture of causative Fault from field survey can also be derived for mainshock with only one magnitude. We compare ShakeMaps of both the above methods with Intensity of investigation. Comparisons show that decomposition method of main shock more accurately reflect the shake of earthquake in near-field, but for far field the shake is controlled by the weakening influence of the source, the estimated Ⅵ area was smaller than the intensity of the actual investigation. Perhaps seismic intensity in far-field may be related to the increasing seismic duration for the two events. In general, decomposition method of main shock based on source process, considering shakemap of each sub-event, is feasible for disaster emergency response, decision-making and rapid Disaster Assessment after the earthquake.

Ground-based Parallax Confirmed by Spitzer: Binary Microlensing Event MOA-2015-BLG-020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tianshu; Zhu, Wei; Mao, Shude; Bond, I. A.; Gould, A.; Udalski, A.; Sumi, T.; Bozza, V.; Ranc, C.; Cassan, A.; Yee, J. C.; Han, C.; Abe, F.; Asakura, Y.; Barry, R.; Bennett, D. P.; Bhattacharya, A.; Donachie, M.; Evans, P.; Fukui, A.; Hirao, Y.; Itow, Y.; Kawasaki, K.; Koshimoto, N.; Li, M. C. A.; Ling, C. H.; Masuda, K.; Matsubara, Y.; Miyazaki, S.; Muraki, Y.; Nagakane, M.; Ohnishi, K.; Rattenbury, N.; Saito, To.; Sharan, A.; Shibai, H.; Sullivan, D. J.; Suzuki, D.; Tristram, P. J.; Yamada, T.; Yonehara, A.; MOA Collaboration; KozŁowski, S.; Mróz, P.; Pawlak, M.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Poleski, R.; Skowron, J.; Soszyński, I.; Szymański, M. K.; Ulaczyk, K.; OGLE Collaboration; Beichman, C.; Bryden, G.; Calchi Novati, S.; Carey, S.; Fausnaugh, M.; Gaudi, B. S.; Henderson, C. B.; Shvartzvald, Y.; Wibking, B.; Spitzer Team; Albrow, M. D.; Chung, S.-J.; Hwang, K.-H.; Jung, Y. K.; Ryu, Y.-H.; Shin, I.-G.; Cha, S.-M.; Kim, D.-J.; Kim, H.-W.; Kim, S.-L.; Lee, C.-U.; Lee, Y.; Park, B.-G.; Pogge, R. W.; KMTNet Collaboration; Street, R. A.; Tsapras, Y.; Hundertmark, M.; Bachelet, E.; Dominik, M.; Horne, K.; Figuera Jaimes, R.; Wambsganss, J.; Bramich, D. M.; Schmidt, R.; Snodgrass, C.; Steele, I. A.; Menzies, J.; RoboNet Collaboration

2017-08-01

We present the analysis of the binary gravitational microlensing event MOA-2015-BLG-020. The event has a fairly long timescale (˜63 days) and thus the light curve deviates significantly from the lensing model that is based on the rectilinear lens-source relative motion. This enables us to measure the microlensing parallax through the annual parallax effect. The microlensing parallax parameters constrained by the ground-based data are confirmed by the Spitzer observations through the satellite parallax method. By additionally measuring the angular Einstein radius from the analysis of the resolved caustic crossing, the physical parameters of the lens are determined. It is found that the binary lens is composed of two dwarf stars with masses {M}1=0.606+/- 0.028 {M}⊙ and {M}2=0.125 +/- 0.006 {M}⊙ in the Galactic disk. Assuming that the source star is at the same distance as the bulge red clump stars, we find the lens is at a distance {D}L=2.44+/- 0.10 {kpc}. We also provide a summary and short discussion of all of the published microlensing events in which the annual parallax effect is confirmed by other independent observations.

Global Source Parameters from Regional Spectral Ratios for Yield Transportability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, W. S.; Fisk, M. D.; Stead, R. J.; Begnaud, M. L.; Rowe, C. A.

2016-12-01

We use source parameters such as moment, corner frequency and high frequency rolloff as constraints in amplitude tomography, ensuring that spectra of well-studied earthquakes are recovered using the ensuing attenuation and site term model. We correct explosion data for path and site effects using such models, which allows us to test transportability of yield estimation techniques based on our best source spectral estimates. To develop a background set of source parameters, we applied spectral ratio techniques to envelopes of a global set of regional distance recordings from over 180,000 crustal events. Corner frequencies and moment ratios were determined via inversion using all event pairs within predetermined clusters, shifting to absolute levels using independently determined regional and teleseismic moments. The moment and corner frequency results can be expressed as stress drop, which has considerable scatter, yet shows dramatic regional patterns. We observe high stress in subduction zones along S. America, S. Mexico, the Banda Sea, and associated with the Yakutat Block in Alaska. We also observe high stress at the Himalayan syntaxes, the Pamirs, eastern Iran, the Caspian, the Altai-Sayan, and the central African rift. Low stress is observed along mid ocean spreading centers, the Afar rift, patches of convergence zones such as Nicaragua, the Zagros, Tibet, and the Tien Shan, among others. Mine blasts appear as low stress events due to their low corners and steep rolloffs. Many of these anomalies have been noted by previous studies, and we plan to compare results directly. As mentioned, these results will be used to constrain tomographic imaging, but can also be used in model validation procedures similar to the use of ground truth in location problems, and, perhaps most importantly, figure heavily in quality control of local and regional distance amplitude measurements.

Empirical Green's function analysis: Taking the next step

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

1997-01-01

An extension of the empirical Green's function (EGF) method is presented that involves determination of source parameters using standard EGF deconvolution, followed by inversion for a common attenuation parameter for a set of colocated events. Recordings of three or more colocated events can thus be used to constrain a single path attenuation estimate. I apply this method to recordings from the 1995-1996 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence; I analyze four clusters consisting of 13 total events with magnitudes between 2.6 and 4.9. I first obtain corner frequencies, which are used to infer Brune stress drop estimates. I obtain stress drop values of 0.3-53 MPa (with all but one between 0.3 and 11 MPa), with no resolved increase of stress drop with moment. With the corner frequencies constrained, the inferred attenuation parameters are very consistent; they imply an average shear wave quality factor of approximately 20-25 for alluvial sediments within the Indian Wells Valley. Although the resultant spectral fitting (using corner frequency and ??) is good, the residuals are consistent among the clusters analyzed. Their spectral shape is similar to the the theoretical one-dimensional response of a layered low-velocity structure in the valley (an absolute site response cannot be determined by this method, because of an ambiguity between absolute response and source spectral amplitudes). I show that even this subtle site response can significantly bias estimates of corner frequency and ??, if it is ignored in an inversion for only source and path effects. The multiple-EGF method presented in this paper is analogous to a joint inversion for source, path, and site effects; the use of colocated sets of earthquakes appears to offer significant advantages in improving resolution of all three estimates, especially if data are from a single site or sites with similar site response.

Stochastic Generation of Spatiotemporal Rainfall Events for Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diederen, D.; Liu, Y.; Gouldby, B.; Diermanse, F.

2017-12-01

Current flood risk analyses that only consider peaks of hydrometeorological forcing variables have limitations regarding their representation of reality. Simplistic assumptions regarding antecedent conditions are required, often different sources of flooding are considered in isolation, and the complex temporal and spatial evolution of the events is not considered. Mid-latitude storms, governed by large scale climatic conditions, often exhibit a high degree of temporal dependency, for example. For sustainable flood risk management, that accounts appropriately for climate change, it is desirable for flood risk analyses to reflect reality more appropriately. Analysis of risk mitigation measures and comparison of their relative performance is therefore likely to be more robust and lead to improved solutions. We provide a new framework for the provision of boundary conditions to flood risk analyses that more appropriately reflects reality. The boundary conditions capture the temporal dependencies of complex storms whilst preserving the extreme values and associated spatial dependencies. We demonstrate the application of this framework to generate a synthetic rainfall events time series boundary condition set from reanalysis rainfall data (CFSR) on the continental scale. We define spatiotemporal clusters of rainfall as events, extract hydrological parameters for each event, generate synthetic parameter sets with a multivariate distribution with a focus on the joint tail probability [Heffernan and Tawn, 2004], and finally create synthetic events from the generated synthetic parameters. We highlight the stochastic integration of (a) spatiotemporal features, e.g. event occurrence intensity over space-time, or time to previous event, which we use for the spatial placement and sequencing of the synthetic events, and (b) value-specific parameters, e.g. peak intensity and event extent. We contrast this to more traditional approaches to highlight the significant improvements in terms of representing the reality of extreme flood events.

Towards real-time regional earthquake simulation I: real-time moment tensor monitoring (RMT) for regional events in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Tu, Feng-Shan; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi

2014-01-01

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency-wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010-2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica (http://rmt.earth.sinica.edu.tw). The long-term goal of this system is to provide real-time source information for rapid seismic hazard assessment during large earthquakes.

Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chouet, B.

1988-01-01

A dynamic source model is presented, in which a 3-D crack containing a viscous compressible fluid is excited into resonance by an impulsive pressure transient applied over a small area DELTA S of the crack surface. The crack excitation depends critically on two dimensionless parameters called the crack stiffness and viscous damping loss. According to the model, the long-period event and harmonic tremor share the same source but differ in the boundary conditions for fluid flow and in the triggering mechanism setting up the resonance of the source, the former being viewed as the impulse response of the tremor generating system and the later representing the excitation due to more complex forcing functions.-from Author

Post-processing of seismic parameter data based on valid seismic event determination

DOEpatents

McEvilly, Thomas V.

1985-01-01

An automated seismic processing system and method are disclosed, including an array of CMOS microprocessors for unattended battery-powered processing of a multi-station network. According to a characterizing feature of the invention, each channel of the network is independently operable to automatically detect, measure times and amplitudes, and compute and fit Fast Fourier transforms (FFT's) for both P- and S- waves on analog seismic data after it has been sampled at a given rate. The measured parameter data from each channel are then reviewed for event validity by a central controlling microprocessor and if determined by preset criteria to constitute a valid event, the parameter data are passed to an analysis computer for calculation of hypocenter location, running b-values, source parameters, event count, P- wave polarities, moment-tensor inversion, and Vp/Vs ratios. The in-field real-time analysis of data maximizes the efficiency of microearthquake surveys allowing flexibility in experimental procedures, with a minimum of traditional labor-intensive postprocessing. A unique consequence of the system is that none of the original data (i.e., the sensor analog output signals) are necessarily saved after computation, but rather, the numerical parameters generated by the automatic analysis are the sole output of the automated seismic processor.

Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

The attenuation of Fourier amplitudes for rock sites in eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Gail M.; Boore, David M.

2014-01-01

We develop an empirical model of the decay of Fourier amplitudes for earthquakes of M 3–6 recorded on rock sites in eastern North America and discuss its implications for source parameters. Attenuation at distances from 10 to 500 km may be adequately described using a bilinear model with a geometric spreading of 1/R1.3 to a transition distance of 50 km, with a geometric spreading of 1/R0.5 at greater distances. For low frequencies and distances less than 50 km, the effective geometric spreading given by the model is perturbed using a frequency‐ and hypocentral depth‐dependent factor defined in such a way as to increase amplitudes at lower frequencies near the epicenter but leave the 1 km source amplitudes unchanged. The associated anelastic attenuation is determined for each event, with an average value being given by a regional quality factor of Q=525f 0.45. This model provides a match, on average, between the known seismic moment of events and the inferred low‐frequency spectral amplitudes at R=1  km (obtained by correcting for the attenuation model). The inferred Brune stress parameters from the high‐frequency source terms are about 600 bars (60 MPa), on average, for events of M>4.5.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Source Parameters and Rupture Directivities of Earthquakes Within the Mendocino Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), a region in the Cascadia subduction zone, produces a sizable amount of earthquakes each year. Direct observations of the rupture properties are difficult to achieve due to the small magnitudes of most of these earthquakes and lack of offshore observations. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) project provides opportunities to look at the earthquakes in detail. Here we look at the transform plate boundary fault located in the MTJ, and measure source parameters of Mw≥4 earthquakes from both time-domain deconvolution and spectral analysis using empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The second-moment method is used to infer rupture length, width, and rupture velocity from apparent source duration measured at different stations. Brune's source model is used to infer corner frequency and spectral complexity for stacked spectral ratio. EGFs are selected based on their location relative to the mainshock, as well as the magnitude difference compared to the mainshock. For the transform fault, we first look at the largest earthquake recorded during the Year 4 CI array, a Mw5.72 event that occurred in January of 2015, and select two EGFs, a Mw1.75 and a Mw1.73 located within 5 km of the mainshock. This earthquake is characterized with at least two sub-events, with total duration of about 0.3 second and rupture length of about 2.78 km. The earthquake is rupturing towards west along the transform fault, and both source durations and corner frequencies show strong azimuthal variations, with anti-correlation between duration and corner frequency. The stacked spectral ratio from multiple stations with the Mw1.73 EGF event shows deviation from pure Brune's source model following the definition from Uchide and Imanishi [2016], likely due to near-field recordings with rupture complexity. We will further analyze this earthquake using more EGF events to test the reliability and stability of the results, and further analyze three other Mw≥4 earthquakes within the array.

Refinement of Regional Distance Seismic Moment Tensor and Uncertainty Analysis for Source-Type Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

a NSS that lies in this negative explosion positive CLVD quadrant due to the large degree of tectonic release in this event that reversed the phase...Mellman (1986) in their analysis of fundamental model Love and Rayleigh wave amplitude and phase for nuclear and tectonic release source terms, and...1986). Estimating explosion and tectonic release source parameters of underground nuclear explosions from Rayleigh and Love wave observations, Air

Microearthquake sequences along the Irpinia normal fault system in Southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orefice, Antonella; Festa, Gaetano; Alfredo Stabile, Tony; Vassallo, Maurizio; Zollo, Aldo

2013-04-01

Microearthquakes reflect a continuous readjustment of tectonic structures, such as faults, under the action of local and regional stress fields. Low magnitude seismicity in the vicinity of active fault zones may reveal insights into the mechanics of the fault systems during the inter-seismic period and shine a light on the role of fluids and other physical parameters in promoting or disfavoring the nucleation of larger size events in the same area. Here we analyzed several earthquake sequences concentrated in very limited regions along the 1980 Irpinia earthquake fault zone (Southern Italy), a complex system characterized by normal stress regime, monitored by the dense, multi-component, high dynamic range seismic network ISNet (Irpinia Seismic Network). On a specific single sequence, the May 2008 Laviano swarm, we performed accurate absolute and relative locations and estimated source parameters and scaling laws that were compared with standard stress-drops computed for the area. Additionally, from EGF deconvolution, we computed a slip model for the mainshock and investigated the space-time evolution of the events in the sequence to reveal possible interactions among earthquakes. Through the massive analysis of cross-correlation based on the master event scanning of the continuous recording, we also reconstructed the catalog of repeated earthquakes and recognized several co-located sequences. For these events, we analyzed the statistical properties, location and source parameters and their space-time evolution with the aim of inferring the processes that control the occurrence and the size of microearthquakes in a swarm.

Analysis of the similar epicenter earthquakes on 22 January 2013 and 01 June 2013, Central Gulf of Suez, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toni, Mostafa; Barth, Andreas; Ali, Sherif M.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2016-09-01

On 22 January 2013 an earthquake with local magnitude ML 4.1 occurred in the central part of the Gulf of Suez. Six months later on 1 June 2013 another earthquake with local magnitude ML 5.1 took place at the same epicenter and different depths. These two perceptible events were recorded and localized by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) and additional networks in the region. The purpose of this study is to determine focal mechanisms and source parameters of both earthquakes to analyze their tectonic relation. We determine the focal mechanisms by applying moment tensor inversion and first motion analysis of P- and S-waves. Both sources reveal oblique focal mechanisms with normal faulting and strike-slip components on differently oriented faults. The source mechanism of the larger event on 1 June in combination with the location of aftershock sequence indicates a left-lateral slip on N-S striking fault structure in 21 km depth that is in conformity with the NE-SW extensional Shmin (orientation of minimum horizontal compressional stress) and the local fault pattern. On the other hand, the smaller earthquake on 22 January with a shallower hypocenter in 16 km depth seems to have happened on a NE-SW striking fault plane sub-parallel to Shmin. Thus, here an energy release on a transfer fault connecting dominant rift-parallel structures might have resulted in a stress transfer, triggering the later ML 5.1 earthquake. Following Brune's model and using displacement spectra, we calculate the dynamic source parameters for the two events. The estimated source parameters for the 22 January 2013 and 1 June 2013 earthquakes are fault length (470 and 830 m), stress drop (1.40 and 2.13 MPa), and seismic moment (5.47E+21 and 6.30E+22 dyn cm) corresponding to moment magnitudes of MW 3.8 and 4.6, respectively.

Earthquake source properties of a shallow induced seismic sequence in SE Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agurto-Detzel, Hans; Bianchi, Marcelo; Prieto, Germán. A.; Assumpção, Marcelo

2017-04-01

We study source parameters of a cluster of 21 very shallow (<1 km depth) small-magnitude (Mw < 2) earthquakes induced by percolation of water by gravity in SE Brazil. Using a multiple empirical Green's functions (meGf) approach, we estimate seismic moments, corner frequencies, and static stress drops of these events by inversion of their spectral ratios. For the studied magnitude range (-0.3 < Mw < 1.9), we found an increase of stress drop with seismic moment. We assess associated uncertainties by considering different signal time windows and by performing a jackknife resampling of the spectral ratios. We also calculate seismic moments by full waveform inversion to independently validate our moments from spectral analysis. We propose repeated rupture on a fault patch at shallow depth, following continuous inflow of water, as the cause for the observed low absolute stress drop values (<1 MPa) and earthquake size dependency. To our knowledge, no other study on earthquake source properties of shallow events induced by water injection with no added pressure is available in the literature. Our study suggests that source parameter characterization may provide additional information of induced seismicity by hydraulic stimulation.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Flooding Events in San Antonio, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chintalapudi, S.; Sharif, H.; Elhassan, A.

2008-12-01

South Central Texas is particularly vulnerable to floods due to: proximity to a moist air source (the Gulf of Mexico); the Balcones Escarpment, which concentrates rainfall runoff; a tendency for synoptic scale features to become cut-off and stall over the area; and decaying tropical cyclones stalling over the area. The San Antonio Metropolitan Area is the 7th largest city in the nation, one of the most flash-flood prone regions in North America, and has experienced a number of flooding events in the last decade (1998, 2002, 2004, and 2007). Research is being conducted to characterize the meteorological conditions that lead to these events and apply the rainfall and watershed characteristics data to recreate the runoff events using a two- dimensional, physically-based, distributed-parameter hydrologic model. The physically based, distributed-parameter Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrological model was used for simulating the watershed response to these storm events. Finally observed discharges were compared to GSSHA model discharges for these storm events. Analysis of the some of these events will be presented.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Ground Motion Characteristics of Induced Earthquakes in Central North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, G. M.; Assatourians, K.; Novakovic, M.

2017-12-01

The ground motion characteristics of induced earthquakes in central North America are investigated based on empirical analysis of a compiled database of 4,000,000 digital ground-motion records from events in induced-seismicity regions (especially Oklahoma). Ground-motion amplitudes are characterized non-parametrically by computing median amplitudes and their variability in magnitude-distance bins. We also use inversion techniques to solve for regional source, attenuation and site response effects. Ground motion models are used to interpret the observations and compare the source and attenuation attributes of induced earthquakes to those of their natural counterparts. Significant conclusions are that the stress parameter that controls the strength of high-frequency radiation is similar for induced earthquakes (depth of h 5 km) and shallow (h 5 km) natural earthquakes. By contrast, deeper natural earthquakes (h 10 km) have stronger high-frequency ground motions. At distances close to the epicenter, a greater focal depth (which increases distance from the hypocenter) counterbalances the effects of a larger stress parameter, resulting in motions of similar strength close to the epicenter, regardless of event depth. The felt effects of induced versus natural earthquakes are also investigated using USGS "Did You Feel It?" reports; 400,000 reports from natural events and 100,000 reports from induced events are considered. The felt reports confirm the trends that we expect based on ground-motion modeling, considering the offsetting effects of the stress parameter versus focal depth in controlling the strength of motions near the epicenter. Specifically, felt intensity for a given magnitude is similar near the epicenter, on average, for all event types and depths. At distances more than 10 km from the epicenter, deeper events are felt more strongly than shallow events. These ground-motion attributes imply that the induced-seismicity hazard is most critical for facilities in close proximity (<10 km) to oil and gas operations.

Statistics of initial density perturbations in heavy ion collisions and their fluid dynamic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floerchinger, Stefan; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

2014-08-01

An interesting opportunity to determine thermodynamic and transport properties in more detail is to identify generic statistical properties of initial density perturbations. Here we study event-by-event fluctuations in terms of correlation functions for two models that can be solved analytically. The first assumes Gaussian fluctuations around a distribution that is fixed by the collision geometry but leads to non-Gaussian features after averaging over the reaction plane orientation at non-zero impact parameter. In this context, we derive a three-parameter extension of the commonly used Bessel-Gaussian event-by-event distribution of harmonic flow coefficients. Secondly, we study a model of N independent point sources for which connected n-point correlation functions of initial perturbations scale like 1 /N n-1. This scaling is violated for non-central collisions in a way that can be characterized by its impact parameter dependence. We discuss to what extent these are generic properties that can be expected to hold for any model of initial conditions, and how this can improve the fluid dynamical analysis of heavy ion collisions.

Full moment tensor and source location inversion based on full waveform adjoint method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morency, C.

2012-12-01

The development of high-performance computing and numerical techniques enabled global and regional tomography to reach high levels of precision, and seismic adjoint tomography has become a state-of-the-art tomographic technique. The method was successfully used for crustal tomography of Southern California (Tape et al., 2009) and Europe (Zhu et al., 2012). Here, I will focus on the determination of source parameters (full moment tensor and location) based on the same approach (Kim et al, 2011). The method relies on full wave simulations and takes advantage of the misfit between observed and synthetic seismograms. An adjoint wavefield is calculated by back-propagating the difference between observed and synthetics from the receivers to the source. The interaction between this adjoint wavefield and the regular forward wavefield helps define Frechet derivatives of the source parameters, that is, the sensitivity of the misfit with respect to the source parameters. Source parameters are then recovered by minimizing the misfit based on a conjugate gradient algorithm using the Frechet derivatives. First, I will demonstrate the method on synthetic cases before tackling events recorded at the Geysers. The velocity model used at the Geysers is based on the USGS 3D velocity model. Waveform datasets come from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. Finally, I will discuss strategies to ultimately use this method to characterize smaller events for microseismic and induced seismicity monitoring. References: - Tape, C., Q. Liu, A. Maggi, and J. Tromp, 2009, Adjoint tomography of the Southern California crust: Science, 325, 988992. - Zhu, H., Bozdag, E., Peter, D., and Tromp, J., 2012, Structure of the European upper mantle revealed by adjoint method: Nature Geoscience, 5, 493-498. - Kim, Y., Q. Liu, and J. Tromp, 2011, Adjoint centroid-moment tensor inversions: Geophys. J. Int., 186, 264278. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

The development of a simulation model of the treatment of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Cooper, Keith; Davies, Ruth; Roderick, Paul; Chase, Debbie; Raftery, James

2002-11-01

A discrete event simulation models the progress of patients who have had a coronary event, through their treatment pathways and subsequent coronary events. The main risk factors in the model are age, sex, history of previous events and the extent of the coronary vessel disease. The model parameters are based on data collected from epidemiological studies of incidence and prognosis, efficacy studies. national surveys and treatment audits. The simulation results were validated against different sources of data. The initial results show that increasing revascularisation has considerable implications for resource use but has little impact on patient mortality.

Calibration of the Regional Crustal Waveguide and the Retrieval of Source Parameters Using Waveform Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikia, C. K.; Woods, B. B.; Thio, H. K.

- Regional crustal waveguide calibration is essential to the retrieval of source parameters and the location of smaller (M<4.8) seismic events. This path calibration of regional seismic phases is strongly dependent on the accuracy of hypocentral locations of calibration (or master) events. This information can be difficult to obtain, especially for smaller events. Generally, explosion or quarry blast generated travel-time data with known locations and origin times are useful for developing the path calibration parameters, but in many regions such data sets are scanty or do not exist. We present a method which is useful for regional path calibration independent of such data, i.e. with earthquakes, which is applicable for events down to Mw = 4 and which has successfully been applied in India, central Asia, western Mediterranean, North Africa, Tibet and the former Soviet Union. These studies suggest that reliably determining depth is essential to establishing accurate epicentral location and origin time for events. We find that the error in source depth does not necessarily trade-off only with the origin time for events with poor azimuthal coverage, but with the horizontal location as well, thus resulting in poor epicentral locations. For example, hypocenters for some events in central Asia were found to move from their fixed-depth locations by about 20km. Such errors in location and depth will propagate into path calibration parameters, particularly with respect to travel times. The modeling of teleseismic depth phases (pP, sP) yields accurate depths for earthquakes down to magnitude Mw = 4.7. This Mwthreshold can be lowered to four if regional seismograms are used in conjunction with a calibrated velocity structure model to determine depth, with the relative amplitude of the Pnl waves to the surface waves and the interaction of regional sPmP and pPmP phases being good indicators of event depths. We also found that for deep events a seismic phase which follows an S-wave path to the surface and becomes critical, developing a head wave by S to P conversion is also indicative of depth. The detailed characteristic of this phase is controlled by the crustal waveguide. The key to calibrating regionalized crustal velocity structure is to determine depths for a set of master events by applying the above methods and then by modeling characteristic features that are recorded on the regional waveforms. The regionalization scheme can also incorporate mixed-path crustal waveguide models for cases in which seismic waves traverse two or more distinctly different crustal structures. We also demonstrate that once depths are established, we need only two-stations travel-time data to obtain reliable epicentral locations using a new adaptive grid-search technique which yields locations similar to those determined using travel-time data from local seismic networks with better azimuthal coverage.

Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

2018-04-01

The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

g-PRIME: A Free, Windows Based Data Acquisition and Event Analysis Software Package for Physiology in Classrooms and Research Labs.

PubMed

Lott, Gus K; Johnson, Bruce R; Bonow, Robert H; Land, Bruce R; Hoy, Ronald R

2009-01-01

We present g-PRIME, a software based tool for physiology data acquisition, analysis, and stimulus generation in education and research. This software was developed in an undergraduate neurophysiology course and strongly influenced by instructor and student feedback. g-PRIME is a free, stand-alone, windows application coded and "compiled" in Matlab (does not require a Matlab license). g-PRIME supports many data acquisition interfaces from the PC sound card to expensive high throughput calibrated equipment. The program is designed as a software oscilloscope with standard trigger modes, multi-channel visualization controls, and data logging features. Extensive analysis options allow real time and offline filtering of signals, multi-parameter threshold-and-window based event detection, and two-dimensional display of a variety of parameters including event time, energy density, maximum FFT frequency component, max/min amplitudes, and inter-event rate and intervals. The software also correlates detected events with another simultaneously acquired source (event triggered average) in real time or offline. g-PRIME supports parameter histogram production and a variety of elegant publication quality graphics outputs. A major goal of this software is to merge powerful engineering acquisition and analysis tools with a biological approach to studies of nervous system function.

Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2014-01-01

Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

Minimal spanning tree algorithm for γ-ray source detection in sparse photon images: cluster parameters and selection strategies

DOE PAGES

Campana, R.; Bernieri, E.; Massaro, E.; ...

2013-05-22

We present that the minimal spanning tree (MST) algorithm is a graph-theoretical cluster-finding method. We previously applied it to γ-ray bidimensional images, showing that it is quite sensitive in finding faint sources. Possible sources are associated with the regions where the photon arrival directions clusterize. MST selects clusters starting from a particular “tree” connecting all the point of the image and performing a cut based on the angular distance between photons, with a number of events higher than a given threshold. In this paper, we show how a further filtering, based on some parameters linked to the cluster properties, canmore » be applied to reduce spurious detections. We find that the most efficient parameter for this secondary selection is the magnitudeM of a cluster, defined as the product of its number of events by its clustering degree. We test the sensitivity of the method by means of simulated and real Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) fields. Our results show that √M is strongly correlated with other statistical significance parameters, derived from a wavelet based algorithm and maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, and that it can be used as a good estimator of statistical significance of MST detections. Finally, we apply the method to a 2-year LAT image at energies higher than 3 GeV, and we show the presence of new clusters, likely associated with BL Lac objects.« less

Source Parameters and High Frequency Characteristics of Local Events (0.5 ≤ M L ≤ 2.9) Around Bilaspur Region of the Himachal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandana; Kumar, Ashwani; Gupta, S. C.; Mishra, O. P.; Kumar, Arjun; Sandeep

2017-04-01

Source parameters of 41 local events (0.5 ≤ M L ≤ 2.9) occurred around Bilaspur region of the Himachal Lesser Himalaya from May 2013 to March 2014 have been estimated adopting Brune model. The estimated source parameters include seismic moments ( M o), source radii ( r), and stress drops (Δ σ), and found to vary from 4.9 × 1019 to 7 × 1021 dyne-cm, about 187-518 m and less than 1 bar to 51 bars, respectively. The decay of high frequency acceleration spectra at frequencies above f max has been modelled using two functions: a high-cut filter and κ factor. Stress drops of 11 events, with M 0 between 1 × 1021 and 7 × 1021 dyne-cm, vary from 11 bars to 51 bars with an average of 22 bars. From the variation of the maximum stress drop with focal depth it appears that the strength of the upper crust decreases below 20 km. A scaling law M 0 = 2 × 1022 f c -3.03 between M 0, and corner frequency (f c), has been developed for the region. This law almost agrees with that for the Kameng region of the Arunachal Lesser Himalaya. f c is found to be source dependent whereas f max is source independent and seems to indicate that the size of the cohesive zone is not sensitive to the earthquake size. At four sites f max is found to vary from 14 to 23, 11 to 19, 9 to 23 and 4 to 11 Hz, respectively. The κ is found to vary from 0.01 to 0.035 s with an average of 0.02 s. This range of variation is a large compared to the κ variation between 0.023 and 0.07 s for the Garhwal and Kumaon Himalaya. For various regions of the world, the κ varies over a broad range from 0.003 to 0.08 s, and for the Bilaspur region the κ estimates are found to be consistent with other regions of the world.

Parameter estimation for compact binary coalescence signals with the first generation gravitational-wave detector network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Bao, Y.; Barayoga, J. C. B.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Basti, A.; Batch, J.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Bebronne, M.; Beck, D.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Belopolski, I.; Benacquista, M.; Berliner, J. M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bhadbade, T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bogan, C.; Bond, C.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bouhou, B.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet–Castell, J.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campsie, P.; Cannon, K.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Carbone, L.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, W.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Chow, J.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, D. E.; Clark, J. A.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colacino, C. N.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, A.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordier, M.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M.; Coulon, J.-P.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Cutler, R. M.; Dahl, K.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Daw, E. J.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; Del Pozzo, W.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Di Paolo Emilio, M.; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorsher, S.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Endrőczi, G.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, K.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Farr, B. F.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Feroz, F.; Ferrante, I.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Foley, S.; Forsi, E.; Forte, L. A.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franc, J.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M. A.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fujimoto, M.-K.; Fulda, P. J.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J.; Galimberti, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garcia, J.; Garufi, F.; Gáspár, M. E.; Gelencser, G.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gergely, L. Á.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gil-Casanova, S.; Gill, C.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Griffo, C.; Grote, H.; Grover, K.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C.; Gupta, R.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Hayau, J.-F.; Heefner, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M. A.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Herrera, V.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Holtrop, M.; Hong, T.; Hooper, S.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; James, E.; Jang, Y. J.; Jaranowski, P.; Jesse, E.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kasprzack, M.; Kasturi, R.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufman, K.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Keresztes, Z.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, B. K.; Kim, C.; Kim, H.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y. M.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Koranda, S.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kurdyumov, R.; Kwee, P.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Langley, A.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lawrie, C.; Lazzarini, A.; Le Roux, A.; Leaci, P.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Lhuillier, V.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Lindquist, P. E.; Litvine, V.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Logue, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Macarthur, J.; Macdonald, E.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mingarelli, C. M. F.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Mori, T.; Morriss, S. R.; Mosca, S.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow–Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Naticchioni, L.; Necula, V.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nishizawa, A.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Oldenberg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoletti, R.; Papa, M. A.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Pedraza, M.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pihlaja, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Pöld, J.; Postiglione, F.; Poux, C.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramet, C.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Rodriguez, C.; Rodruck, M.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Röver, C.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sankar, S.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Santostasi, G.; Saracco, E.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R. L.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G. R.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Speirits, F. C.; Sperandio, L.; Stefszky, M.; Steinert, E.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S. E.; Stroeer, A. S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szeifert, G.; Tacca, M.; Taffarello, L.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, R.; ter Braack, A. P. M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torre, O.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Ugolini, D.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A. E.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wan, Y.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wiesner, K.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, H.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.

2013-09-01

Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a “blind injection” where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M⊙-25M⊙ and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.

Characterizing Lenses and Lensed Stars of High-magnification Single-lens Gravitational Microlensing Events with Lenses Passing over Source Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.-Y.; Shin, I.-G.; Park, S.-Y.; Han, C.; Gould, A.; Sumi, T.; Udalski, A.; Beaulieu, J.-P.; Street, R.; Dominik, M.; Allen, W.; Almeida, L. A.; Bos, M.; Christie, G. W.; Depoy, D. L.; Dong, S.; Drummond, J.; Gal-Yam, A.; Gaudi, B. S.; Henderson, C. B.; Hung, L.-W.; Jablonski, F.; Janczak, J.; Lee, C.-U.; Mallia, F.; Maury, A.; McCormick, J.; McGregor, D.; Monard, L. A. G.; Moorhouse, D.; Muñoz, J. A.; Natusch, T.; Nelson, C.; Park, B.-G.; Pogge, R. W.; "TG" Tan, T.-G.; Thornley, G.; Yee, J. C.; μFUN Collaboration; Abe, F.; Barnard, E.; Baudry, J.; Bennett, D. P.; Bond, I. A.; Botzler, C. S.; Freeman, M.; Fukui, A.; Furusawa, K.; Hayashi, F.; Hearnshaw, J. B.; Hosaka, S.; Itow, Y.; Kamiya, K.; Kilmartin, P. M.; Kobara, S.; Korpela, A.; Lin, W.; Ling, C. H.; Makita, S.; Masuda, K.; Matsubara, Y.; Miyake, N.; Muraki, Y.; Nagaya, M.; Nishimoto, K.; Ohnishi, K.; Okumura, T.; Omori, K.; Perrott, Y. C.; Rattenbury, N.; Saito, To.; Skuljan, L.; Sullivan, D. J.; Suzuki, D.; Suzuki, K.; Sweatman, W. L.; Takino, S.; Tristram, P. J.; Wada, K.; Yock, P. C. M.; MOA Collaboration; Szymański, M. K.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzyński, G.; Soszyński, I.; Poleski, R.; Ulaczyk, K.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Kozłowski, S.; Pietrukowicz, P.; OGLE Collaboration; Albrow, M. D.; Bachelet, E.; Batista, V.; Bennett, C. S.; Bowens-Rubin, R.; Brillant, S.; Cassan, A.; Cole, A.; Corrales, E.; Coutures, Ch.; Dieters, S.; Dominis Prester, D.; Donatowicz, J.; Fouqué, P.; Greenhill, J.; Kane, S. R.; Menzies, J.; Sahu, K. C.; Wambsganss, J.; Williams, A.; Zub, M.; PLANET Collaboration; Allan, A.; Bramich, D. M.; Browne, P.; Clay, N.; Fraser, S.; Horne, K.; Kains, N.; Mottram, C.; Snodgrass, C.; Steele, I.; Tsapras, Y.; RoboNet Collaboration; Alsubai, K. A.; Bozza, V.; Burgdorf, M. J.; Calchi Novati, S.; Dodds, P.; Dreizler, S.; Finet, F.; Gerner, T.; Glitrup, M.; Grundahl, F.; Hardis, S.; Harpsøe, K.; Hinse, T. C.; Hundertmark, M.; Jørgensen, U. G.; Kerins, E.; Liebig, C.; Maier, G.; Mancini, L.; Mathiasen, M.; Penny, M. T.; Proft, S.; Rahvar, S.; Ricci, D.; Scarpetta, G.; Schäfer, S.; Schönebeck, F.; Skottfelt, J.; Surdej, J.; Southworth, J.; Zimmer, F.; MiNDSTEp Consortium

2012-05-01

We present the analysis of the light curves of nine high-magnification single-lens gravitational microlensing events with lenses passing over source stars, including OGLE-2004-BLG-254, MOA-2007-BLG-176, MOA-2007-BLG-233/OGLE-2007-BLG-302, MOA-2009-BLG-174, MOA-2010-BLG-436, MOA-2011-BLG-093, MOA-2011-BLG-274, OGLE-2011-BLG-0990/MOA-2011-BLG-300, and OGLE-2011-BLG-1101/MOA-2011-BLG-325. For all of the events, we measure the linear limb-darkening coefficients of the surface brightness profile of source stars by measuring the deviation of the light curves near the peak affected by the finite-source effect. For seven events, we measure the Einstein radii and the lens-source relative proper motions. Among them, five events are found to have Einstein radii of less than 0.2 mas, making the lenses very low mass star or brown dwarf candidates. For MOA-2011-BLG-274, especially, the small Einstein radius of θE ~ 0.08 mas combined with the short timescale of t E ~ 2.7 days suggests the possibility that the lens is a free-floating planet. For MOA-2009-BLG-174, we measure the lens parallax and thus uniquely determine the physical parameters of the lens. We also find that the measured lens mass of ~0.84 M ⊙ is consistent with that of a star blended with the source, suggesting that the blend is likely to be the lens. Although we did not find planetary signals for any of the events, we provide exclusion diagrams showing the confidence levels excluding the existence of a planet as a function of the separation and mass ratio.

Near real-time estimation of the seismic source parameters in a compressed domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Ismael A. Vera

Seismic events can be characterized by its origin time, location and moment tensor. Fast estimations of these source parameters are important in areas of geophysics like earthquake seismology, and the monitoring of seismic activity produced by volcanoes, mining operations and hydraulic injections in geothermal and oil and gas reservoirs. Most available monitoring systems estimate the source parameters in a sequential procedure: first determining origin time and location (e.g., epicentre, hypocentre or centroid of the stress glut density), and then using this information to initialize the evaluation of the moment tensor. A more efficient estimation of the source parameters requires a concurrent evaluation of the three variables. The main objective of the present thesis is to address the simultaneous estimation of origin time, location and moment tensor of seismic events. The proposed method displays the benefits of being: 1) automatic, 2) continuous and, depending on the scale of application, 3) of providing results in real-time or near real-time. The inversion algorithm is based on theoretical results from sparse representation theory and compressive sensing. The feasibility of implementation is determined through the analysis of synthetic and real data examples. The numerical experiments focus on the microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fractures in oil and gas wells, however, an example using real earthquake data is also presented for validation. The thesis is complemented with a resolvability analysis of the moment tensor. The analysis targets common monitoring geometries employed in hydraulic fracturing in oil wells. Additionally, it is presented an application of sparse representation theory for the denoising of one-component and three-component microseismicity records, and an algorithm for improved automatic time-picking using non-linear inversion constraints.

Effect of vehicular traffic, remote sources and new particle formation on the activation properties of cloud condensation nuclei in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto-Oliveira, Carlos Eduardo; de Fátima Andrade, Maria; Kumar, Prashant; Juliano da Silva Lopes, Fábio; Babinski, Marly; Landulfo, Eduardo

2016-11-01

Atmospheric aerosol is the primary source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The microphysics and chemical composition of aerosols can affect cloud development and the precipitation process. Among studies conducted in Latin America, only a handful have reported the impact of urban aerosol on CCN activation parameters such as activation ratio (AR) and activation diameter (Dact). With over 20 million inhabitants, the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is the largest megacity in South America. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess the impact that remote sources and new particle formation (NPF) events have on CCN activation properties in a South American megacity. The measurements were conducted in the MASP between August and September 2014. We measured the CCN within the 0.2-1.0 % range of supersaturation, together with particle number concentration (PNC) and particle number distribution (PND), as well as trace-element concentrations and black carbon (BC). NPF events were identified on 35 % of the sampling days. Combining multivariate analysis in the form of positive matrix factorization (PMF) with an aerosol profile from lidar and HYSPLIT model analyses allowed us to identify the main contribution of vehicular traffic on all days and sea salt and biomass burning from remote regions on 28 and 21 % of the sampling days, respectively. The AR and Dact parameters showed distinct patterns for daytime with intense vehicular traffic and nighttime periods. For example, CCN activation was lower during the daytime than during the nighttime periods, a pattern that was found to be associated mainly with local road-traffic emissions. A decrease in CCN activation was observed on the NPF event days, mainly due to high concentrations of particles with smaller diameters. We also found that aerosols from sea salt, industrial emissions, and biomass burning had minor effects on Dact. For example, nights with biomass burning and vehicular emissions showed slightly lower CCN activation properties than sea-salt, industrial and non-event nights. Our results show that particulate matter from local vehicular emissions during the daytime has a greater effect on CCN activation parameters than that from remote sources.

Identifying isotropic events using a regional moment tensor inversion

DOE PAGES

Ford, Sean R.; Dreger, Douglas S.; Walter, William R.

2009-01-17

We calculate the deviatoric and isotropic source components for 17 explosions at the Nevada Test Site, as well as 12 earthquakes and 3 collapses in the surrounding region of the western United States, using a regional time domain full waveform inversion for the complete moment tensor. The events separate into specific populations according to their deviation from a pure double-couple and ratio of isotropic to deviatoric energy. The separation allows for anomalous event identification and discrimination between explosions, earthquakes, and collapses. Confidence regions of the model parameters are estimated from the data misfit by assuming normally distributed parameter values. Wemore » investigate the sensitivity of the resolved parameters of an explosion to imperfect Earth models, inaccurate event depths, and data with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) assuming a reasonable azimuthal distribution of stations. In the band of interest (0.02–0.10 Hz) the source-type calculated from complete moment tensor inversion is insensitive to velocity model perturbations that cause less than a half-cycle shift (<5 s) in arrival time error if shifting of the waveforms is allowed. The explosion source-type is insensitive to an incorrect depth assumption (for a true depth of 1 km), and the goodness of fit of the inversion result cannot be used to resolve the true depth of the explosion. Noise degrades the explosive character of the result, and a good fit and accurate result are obtained when the signal-to-noise ratio is greater than 5. We assess the depth and frequency dependence upon the resolved explosive moment. As the depth decreases from 1 km to 200 m, the isotropic moment is no longer accurately resolved and is in error between 50 and 200%. Furthermore, even at the most shallow depth the resultant moment tensor is dominated by the explosive component when the data have a good SNR.« less

Constraints on Ultrahigh-Energy Cosmic-Ray Sources from a Search for Neutrinos above 10 PeV with IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aartsen, M. G.; Abraham, K.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Altmann, D.; Andeen, K.; Anderson, T.; Ansseau, I.; Anton, G.; Archinger, M.; Argüelles, C.; Auffenberg, J.; Axani, S.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Bay, R.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; BenZvi, S.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bernhard, A.; Besson, D. Z.; Binder, G.; Bindig, D.; Bissok, M.; Blaufuss, E.; Blot, S.; Bohm, C.; Börner, M.; Bos, F.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Braun, J.; Brayeur, L.; Bretz, H.-P.; Burgman, A.; Carver, T.; Casier, M.; Cheung, E.; Chirkin, D.; Christov, A.; Clark, K.; Classen, L.; Coenders, S.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Cowen, D. F.; Cross, R.; Day, M.; de André, J. P. A. M.; De Clercq, C.; del Pino Rosendo, E.; Dembinski, H.; De Ridder, S.; Desiati, P.; de Vries, K. D.; de Wasseige, G.; de With, M.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; di Lorenzo, V.; Dujmovic, H.; Dumm, J. P.; Dunkman, M.; Eberhardt, B.; Ehrhardt, T.; Eichmann, B.; Eller, P.; Euler, S.; Evenson, P. A.; Fahey, S.; Fazely, A. R.; Feintzeig, J.; Felde, J.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Flis, S.; Fösig, C.-C.; Franckowiak, A.; Friedman, E.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Ghorbani, K.; Giang, W.; Gladstone, L.; Glagla, M.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Golup, G.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Grant, D.; Griffith, Z.; Haack, C.; Haj Ismail, A.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hansen, E.; Hansmann, B.; Hansmann, T.; Hanson, K.; Hebecker, D.; Heereman, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hickford, S.; Hignight, J.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Holzapfel, K.; Hoshina, K.; Huang, F.; Huber, M.; Hultqvist, K.; In, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jeong, M.; Jero, K.; Jones, B. J. P.; Jurkovic, M.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Katz, U.; Kauer, M.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, J.; Kheirandish, A.; Kim, M.; Kintscher, T.; Kiryluk, J.; Kittler, T.; Klein, S. R.; Kohnen, G.; Koirala, R.; Kolanoski, H.; Konietz, R.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Krings, K.; Kroll, M.; Krückl, G.; Krüger, C.; Kunnen, J.; Kunwar, S.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Labare, M.; Lanfranchi, J. L.; Larson, M. J.; Lauber, F.; Lennarz, D.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Leuermann, M.; Leuner, J.; Lu, L.; Lünemann, J.; Madsen, J.; Maggi, G.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Mancina, S.; Mandelartz, M.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Maunu, R.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Medici, M.; Meier, M.; Meli, A.; Menne, T.; Merino, G.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Mohrmann, L.; Montaruli, T.; Moulai, M.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naumann, U.; Neer, G.; Niederhausen, H.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke Pollmann, A.; Olivas, A.; O'Murchadha, A.; Palczewski, T.; Pandya, H.; Pankova, D. V.; Penek, Ö.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pinat, E.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Quinnan, M.; Raab, C.; Rädel, L.; Rameez, M.; Rawlins, K.; Reimann, R.; Relethford, B.; Relich, M.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Richman, M.; Riedel, B.; Robertson, S.; Rongen, M.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ryckbosch, D.; Rysewyk, D.; Sabbatini, L.; Sanchez Herrera, S. E.; Sandrock, A.; Sandroos, J.; Sarkar, S.; Satalecka, K.; Schimp, M.; Schlunder, P.; Schmidt, T.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schumacher, L.; Seckel, D.; Seunarine, S.; Soldin, D.; Song, M.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stahlberg, M.; Stanev, T.; Stasik, A.; Steuer, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Ström, R.; Strotjohann, N. L.; Sullivan, G. W.; Sutherland, M.; Taavola, H.; Taboada, I.; Tatar, J.; Tenholt, F.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Terliuk, A.; Tešić, G.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Tobin, M. N.; Toscano, S.; Tosi, D.; Tselengidou, M.; Turcati, A.; Unger, E.; Usner, M.; Vandenbroucke, J.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vanheule, S.; van Rossem, M.; van Santen, J.; Veenkamp, J.; Vehring, M.; Voge, M.; Vraeghe, M.; Walck, C.; Wallace, A.; Wallraff, M.; Wandkowsky, N.; Weaver, Ch.; Weiss, M. J.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Wickmann, S.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Wille, L.; Williams, D. R.; Wills, L.; Wolf, M.; Wood, T. R.; Woolsey, E.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Xu, Y.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zoll, M.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-12-01

We report constraints on the sources of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) above 1 09 GeV , based on an analysis of seven years of IceCube data. This analysis efficiently selects very high- energy neutrino-induced events which have deposited energies from 5 ×1 05 GeV to above 1 011 GeV . Two neutrino-induced events with an estimated deposited energy of (2.6 ±0.3 )×1 06 GeV , the highest neutrino energy observed so far, and (7.7 ±2.0 )×1 05 GeV were detected. The atmospheric background-only hypothesis of detecting these events is rejected at 3.6 σ . The hypothesis that the observed events are of cosmogenic origin is also rejected at >99 % CL because of the limited deposited energy and the nonobservation of events at higher energy, while their observation is consistent with an astrophysical origin. Our limits on cosmogenic neutrino fluxes disfavor the UHECR sources having a cosmological evolution stronger than the star formation rate, e.g., active galactic nuclei and γ -ray bursts, assuming proton-dominated UHECRs. Constraints on UHECR sources including mixed and heavy UHECR compositions are obtained for models of neutrino production within UHECR sources. Our limit disfavors a significant part of parameter space for active galactic nuclei and new-born pulsar models. These limits on the ultrahigh-energy neutrino flux models are the most stringent to date.

Point-source inversion techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langston, Charles A.; Barker, Jeffrey S.; Pavlin, Gregory B.

1982-11-01

A variety of approaches for obtaining source parameters from waveform data using moment-tensor or dislocation point source models have been investigated and applied to long-period body and surface waves from several earthquakes. Generalized inversion techniques have been applied to data for long-period teleseismic body waves to obtain the orientation, time function and depth of the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, event, of the 1971 San Fernando event, and of several events associated with the 1963 induced seismicity sequence at Kariba, Africa. The generalized inversion technique and a systematic grid testing technique have also been used to place meaningful constraints on mechanisms determined from very sparse data sets; a single station with high-quality three-component waveform data is often sufficient to discriminate faulting type (e.g., strike-slip, etc.). Sparse data sets for several recent California earthquakes, for a small regional event associated with the Koyna, India, reservoir, and for several events at the Kariba reservoir have been investigated in this way. Although linearized inversion techniques using the moment-tensor model are often robust, even for sparse data sets, there are instances where the simplifying assumption of a single point source is inadequate to model the data successfully. Numerical experiments utilizing synthetic data and actual data for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake graphically demonstrate that severe problems may be encountered if source finiteness effects are ignored. These techniques are generally applicable to on-line processing of high-quality digital data, but source complexity and inadequacy of the assumed Green's functions are major problems which are yet to be fully addressed.

A stochastic storm surge generator for the German North Sea and the multivariate statistical assessment of the simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Jensen, Jürgen; Mudersbach, Christoph

2010-05-01

Storm surges along the German North Sea coastline led to major damages in the past and the risk of inundation is expected to increase in the course of an ongoing climate change. The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential for the performance of integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept. The latter includes the storm surge simulation/analyses (source), modelling of dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). In subproject 1b of the German joint research project XtremRisK (www.xtremrisk.de), a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea area is developed. The input data for the multivariate model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Based on 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters) observed storm surge hydrographs consisting of three tides are parameterised. Followed by the adaption of common parametric probability distributions and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations, the final reconstruction leads to a set of 100.000 (default) synthetic storm surge events with a one-minute resolution. Such a data set can potentially serve as the basis for a large number of applications. For risk analyses, storm surges with peak water levels exceeding the design water levels are of special interest. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics, considering the parameters "peak water level" and "fullness/intensity". In the past, most studies considered only the peak water levels during extreme events, which might not be the most important parameter in any cases. Here, a 2D-Archimedian copula model is used for the estimation of the joint probabilities of the selected parameters, accounting for the structures of dependence overlooking the margins. In coordination with subproject 1a, the results will be used as the input for the XtremRisK subprojects 2 to 4. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03 F 0483 B).

Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, W. A.

2017-12-01

In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

Modeling subduction earthquake sources in the central-western region of Colombia using waveform inversion of body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monsalve-Jaramillo, Hugo; Valencia-Mina, William; Cano-Saldaña, Leonardo; Vargas, Carlos A.

2018-05-01

Source parameters of four earthquakes located within the Wadati-Benioff zone of the Nazca plate subducting beneath the South American plate in Colombia were determined. The seismic moments for these events were recalculated and their approximate equivalent rupture area, slip distribution and stress drop were estimated. The source parameters for these earthquakes were obtained by deconvolving multiple events through teleseismic analysis of body waves recorded in long period stations and with simultaneous inversion of P and SH waves. The calculated source time functions for these events showed different stages that suggest that these earthquakes can reasonably be thought of being composed of two subevents. Even though two of the overall focal mechanisms obtained yielded similar results to those reported by the CMT catalogue, the two other mechanisms showed a clear difference compared to those officially reported. Despite this, it appropriate to mention that the mechanisms inverted in this work agree well with the expected orientation of faulting at that depth as well as with the wave forms they are expected to produce. In some of the solutions achieved, one of the two subevents exhibited a focal mechanism considerably different from the total earthquake mechanism; this could be interpreted as the result of a slight deviation from the overall motion due the complex stress field as well as the possibility of a combination of different sources of energy release analogous to the ones that may occur in deeper earthquakes. In those cases, the subevents with very different focal mechanism compared to the total earthquake mechanism had little contribution to the final solution and thus little contribution to the total amount of energy released.

Impulsive acceleration and scatter-free transport of about 1 MeV per nucleon ions in (He-3)-rich solar particle events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, G. M.; Ng, C. K.; Klecker, B.; Green, G.

1989-01-01

Impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events are studied to: (1) describe a distinct class of SEP ion events observed in interplanetary space, and (2) test models of focused transport through detailed comparisons of numerical model prediction with the data. An attempt will also be made to describe the transport and scattering properties of the interplanetary medium during the times these events are observed and to derive source injection profiles in these events. ISEE 3 and Helios 1 magnetic field and plasma data are used to locate the approximate coronal connection points of the spacecraft to organize the particle anisotropy data and to constrain some free parameters in the modeling of flare events.

Intraplate earthquakes and the state of stress in oceanic lithosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Eric A.

1986-01-01

The dominant sources of stress relieved in oceanic intraplate earthquakes are investigated to examine the usefulness of earthquakes as indicators of stress orientation. The primary data for this investigation are the detailed source studies of 58 of the largest of these events, performed with a body-waveform inversion technique of Nabelek (1984). The relationship between the earthquakes and the intraplate stress fields was investigated by studying, the rate of seismic moment release as a function of age, the source mechanisms and tectonic associations of larger events, and the depth-dependence of various source parameters. The results indicate that the earthquake focal mechanisms are empirically reliable indicators of stress, probably reflecting the fact that an earthquake will occur most readily on a fault plane oriented in such a way that the resolved shear stress is maximized while the normal stress across the fault, is minimized.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 ( M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati

2018-05-01

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth ( H = 19 km), the seismic moment ( M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism ( φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius ( a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δ σ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q( f) = 500 f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δ σ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

A study of Guptkashi, Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (M w 5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinagesh, Davuluri; Singh, Shri Krishna; Suresh, Gaddale; Srinivas, Dakuri; Pérez-Campos, Xyoli; Suresh, Gudapati

2018-02-01

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake's location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H = 19 km), the seismic moment (M 0 = 1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ = 280°, δ = 14°, λ = 84°), the source radius (a = 1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s 22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω -2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f) = 500f 0.9, κ = 0.04 s, and f max = infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ = 70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤ 200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6 ≤ M w ≤ 6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.

How Unique is Any Given Seismogram? - Exploring Correlation Methods to Identify Explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, W. R.; Dodge, D. A.; Ford, S. R.; Pyle, M. L.; Hauk, T. F.

2015-12-01

As with conventional wisdom about snowflakes, we would expect it unlikely that any two broadband seismograms would ever be exactly identical. However depending upon the resolution of our comparison metric, we do expect, and often find, bandpassed seismograms that correlate to very high levels (>0.99). In fact regional (e.g. Schaff and Richards, 2011) and global investigations (e.g. Dodge and Walter, 2015) find large numbers of highly correlated seismograms. Decreasing computational costs are increasing the tremendous potential for correlation in lowering detection, location and identification thresholds for explosion monitoring (e.g. Schaff et al., 2012, Gibbons and Ringdal, 2012; Zhang and Wen, 2015). We have shown in the case of Source Physics Experiment (SPE) chemical explosions, templates at local and near regional stations can detect, locate and identify very small explosions, which might be applied to monitoring active test sites (Ford and Walter, 2015). In terms of elastic theory, seismograms are the convolution between source and Green function terms. Thus high correlation implies similar sources, closely located. How do we quantify this physically? For example it is well known that as the template event and target events are increasingly separated spatially, their correlation diminishes, as the difference in the Green function between the two events grows larger. This is related to the event separation in terms of wavelength, the heterogeneity of the Earth structure, and the time-bandwidth of the correlation parameters used, but this has not been well quantified. We are using the historic dataset of nuclear explosions in southern Nevada to explore empirically where and how well these events correlate as a function of location, depth, size, time-bandwidth and other parameters. A goal is to develop more meaningful and physical metrics that go beyond the correlation coefficient and can be applied to explosion monitoring problems, particularly event identification.

ADVANCED WAVEFORM SIMULATION FOR SEISMIC MONITORING EVENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helmberger, Donald V.; Tromp, Jeroen; Rodgers, Arthur J.

Earthquake source parameters underpin several aspects of nuclear explosion monitoring. Such aspects are: calibration of moment magnitudes (including coda magnitudes) and magnitude and distance amplitude corrections (MDAC); source depths; discrimination by isotropic moment tensor components; and waveform modeling for structure (including waveform tomography). This project seeks to improve methods for and broaden the applicability of estimating source parameters from broadband waveforms using the Cut-and-Paste (CAP) methodology. The CAP method uses a library of Green’s functions for a one-dimensional (1D, depth-varying) seismic velocity model. The method separates the main arrivals of the regional waveform into 5 windows: Pnl (vertical and radialmore » components), Rayleigh (vertical and radial components) and Love (transverse component). Source parameters are estimated by grid search over strike, dip, rake and depth and seismic moment or equivalently moment magnitude, MW, are adjusted to fit the amplitudes. Key to the CAP method is allowing the synthetic seismograms to shift in time relative to the data in order to account for path-propagation errors (delays) in the 1D seismic velocity model used to compute the Green’s functions. The CAP method has been shown to improve estimates of source parameters, especially when delay and amplitude biases are calibrated using high signal-to-noise data from moderate earthquakes, CAP+.« less

Broadband Ground Motion Synthesis of the 1999 Turkey Earthquakes Based On: 3-D Velocity Inversion, Finite Difference Calculations and Emprical Greens Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Kalafat, D.; Hutchings, L.

2003-12-01

We analyze over 3,500 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks during the 1999 Marmara, Turkey earthquakes. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks, a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion, an input three-dimensional velocity model for a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998), and records available for use as empirical Green's functions. Ultimately our goal is to model the 1999 earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz and study fault rupture mechanics and kinematic rupture models. We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P- and S- wave velocity structure of Marmara Region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events with more than eight P- readings and an azimuthal gap of less than 180\\deg. The resolution of calculated velocity structure is better in the eastern Marmara than the western Marmara region due to the dense ray coverage. We used the obtained velocity structure as input into the finite difference algorithm and validated the model by using M < 4 earthquakes as point sources and matching long period waveforms (f < 0.5 Hz). We also obtained Mo, fc and individual station kappa values for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquakes (M < 4.0) to obtain empirical Green's function (EGF) for the higher frequency range of ground motion synthesis (0.5 < f > 25 Hz). We additionally obtained the source scaling relation (energy-moment) of these aftershocks. We have generated several scenarios constrained by a priori knowledge of the Izmit and Duzce rupture parameters to validate our prediction capability.

Real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, F.; Daniell, J.; Khazai, B.; Mühr, B.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Markus, M.; Vervaeck, A.

2012-04-01

The Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM, www.cedim.de) - an interdisciplinary research center founded by the German Research Centre for Geoscience (GFZ) and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - has embarked on a new style of disaster research known as Forensic Disaster Analysis. The notion has been coined by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk initiative (IRDR, www.irdrinternational.org) launched by ICSU in 2010. It has been defined as an approach to studying natural disasters that aims at uncovering the root causes of disasters through in-depth investigations that go beyond the reconnaissance reports and case studies typically conducted after disasters. In adopting this comprehensive understanding of disasters CEDIM adds a real-time component to the assessment and evaluation process. By comprehensive we mean that most if not all relevant aspects of disasters are considered and jointly analysed. This includes the impact (human, economy, and infrastructure), comparisons with recent historic events, social vulnerability, reconstruction and long-term impacts on livelihood issues. The forensic disaster analysis research mode is thus best characterized as "event-based research" through systematic investigation of critical issues arising after a disaster across various inter-related areas. The forensic approach requires (a) availability of global data bases regarding previous earthquake losses, socio-economic parameters, building stock information, etc.; (b) leveraging platforms such as the EERI clearing house, relief-web, and the many sources of local and international sources where information is organized; and (c) rapid access to critical information (e.g., crowd sourcing techniques) to improve our understanding of the complex dynamics of disasters. The main scientific questions being addressed are: What are critical factors that control loss of life, of infrastructure, and for economy? What are the critical interactions between hazard - socio-economic systems - technological systems? What were the protective measures and to what extent did they work? Can we predict pattern of losses and socio-economic implications for future extreme events from simple parameters: hazard parameters, historic evidence, socio-economic conditions? Can we predict implications for reconstruction from simple parameters: hazard parameters, historic evidence, socio-economic conditions? The M7.2 Van Earthquake (Eastern Turkey) of 23 Oct. 2011 serves as an example for a forensic approach.

Isotropic source terms of San Jacinto fault zone earthquakes based on waveform inversions with a generalized CAP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Z. E.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Zhu, L.

2015-02-01

We analyse source tensor properties of seven Mw > 4.2 earthquakes in the complex trifurcation area of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, CA, with a focus on isotropic radiation that may be produced by rock damage in the source volumes. The earthquake mechanisms are derived with generalized `Cut and Paste' (gCAP) inversions of three-component waveforms typically recorded by >70 stations at regional distances. The gCAP method includes parameters ζ and χ representing, respectively, the relative strength of the isotropic and CLVD source terms. The possible errors in the isotropic and CLVD components due to station variability is quantified with bootstrap resampling for each event. The results indicate statistically significant explosive isotropic components for at least six of the events, corresponding to ˜0.4-8 per cent of the total potency/moment of the sources. In contrast, the CLVD components for most events are not found to be statistically significant. Trade-off and correlation between the isotropic and CLVD components are studied using synthetic tests with realistic station configurations. The associated uncertainties are found to be generally smaller than the observed isotropic components. Two different tests with velocity model perturbation are conducted to quantify the uncertainty due to inaccuracies in the Green's functions. Applications of the Mann-Whitney U test indicate statistically significant explosive isotropic terms for most events consistent with brittle damage production at the source.

Source Model of the MJMA 6.5 Plate-Boundary Earthquake at the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, on April 1, 2016, Based on Strong Motion Waveform Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.

2017-12-01

An MJMA 6.5 earthquake occurred offshore the Kii peninsula, southwest Japan on April 1, 2016. This event was interpreted as a thrust-event on the plate-boundary along the Nankai trough where (Wallace et al., 2016). This event is the largest plate-boundary earthquake in the source region of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (MW 8.0) after that event. The significant point of this event regarding to seismic observation is that this event occurred beneath an ocean-bottom seismic network called DONET1, which is jointly operated by NIED and JAMSTEC. Since moderate-to-large earthquake of this focal type is very rare in this region in the last half century, it is a good opportunity to investigate the source characteristics relating to strong motion generation of subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes along the Nankai trough. Knowledge obtained from the study of this earthquake would contribute to ground motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment for future megathrust earthquakes expected in the Nankai trough. In this study, the source model of the 2016 offshore the Kii peninsula earthquake was estimated by broadband strong motion waveform modeling using the empirical Green's function method (Irikura, 1986). The source model is characterized by strong motion generation area (SMGA) (Miyake et al., 2003), which is defined as a rectangular area with high-stress drop or high slip-velocity. SMGA source model based on the empirical Green's function method has great potential to reproduce ground motion time history in broadband frequency range. We used strong motion data from offshore stations (DONET1 and LTBMS) and onshore stations (NIED F-net and DPRI). The records of an MJMA 3.2 aftershock at 13:04 on April 1, 2016 were selected for the empirical Green's functions. The source parameters of SMGA are optimized by the waveform modeling in the frequency range 0.4-10 Hz. The best estimate of SMGA size is 19.4 km2, and SMGA of this event does not follow the source scaling relationship for past plate-boundary earthquakes along the Japan trench, northeast Japan. This finding implies that the source characteristics of plate-boundary events in the Nankai trough are different from those in the Japan Trench, and it could be important information to consider regional variation in ground motion prediction.

Research of the Effect Caused by Terrestrial Power Sources on the Near-Earth Space above China based on DEMETER Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Wu, J.; Ma, Q.

2017-12-01

The environmental effect on the ionosphere caused by man-made power line emission (PLE) and power line harmonic radiation (PLHR) has become an increasing concern. Based on the observed data of 6.5 operating years of DEMETER satellite, by scanning the electric field power density time-frequency spectrograms, 133 PLHR events with central frequencies from 500 Hz to 4.5 kHz are detected in the near-Earth space above China. Among the 133 events, 129 events have PLE events at the base power system frequency (50 Hz in China). The duration time of every PLE event covers that of the corresponding PLHR event totally. As the same with PLHR, PLE is also propagating in whistler mode in the ionosphere. In two events that are detected in the conjugate region of Australian NWC VLF transmitter, radiations with line structure in the vicinity of 19.8 kHz are detected. There are 5 lines distributed from about 19.7 kHz to 19.9 kHz, which are in accordance with the frequency range of NWC transmitted signals. The frequency spacing of the 5 lines is exactly 50 Hz and the bandwidth of each line is about 10 Hz. The electric field power density of the line structure radiation is at the same level with the corresponding PLE, much higher than that of PLHR. The line structure radiations suggest possible modulation of VLF signals by PLE. At last, the variation of ionospheric parameters measured by DEMETER in relation with PLHR is analyzed statistically. As the revisiting orbits of DEMETER pass over the same area with nearly no deviation and at the same time of day, for each PLHR event, we check and average the parameters of 3 revisiting orbits before and after the event respectively. Combined with the event orbit, the variations of these parameters can be obtained. There are totally 5 tendencies: no variation, ascending, descending, crest and trough. Only a few events show no variation. Though there are differences in other 4 tendencies, none of the parameters show extremely preferences on one of the 4 tendencies. The crest and trough events are generally more than ascending and descending events, especially for ion density and O+ ion percentage. The variations of parameters show no preferences on latitude and the day of year.

An approach to source characterization of tremor signals associated with eruptions and lahars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumagai, Hiroyuki; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario; Maeda, Yuta

2015-11-01

Tremor signals are observed in association with eruption activity and lahar descents. Reduced displacement ( D R) derived from tremor signals has been used to quantify tremor sources. However, tremor duration is not considered in D R, which makes it difficult to compare D R values estimated for different tremor episodes. We propose application of the amplitude source location (ASL) method to characterize the sources of tremor signals. We used this method to estimate the tremor source location and source amplitude from high-frequency (5-10 Hz) seismic amplitudes under the assumption of isotropic S-wave radiation. We considered the source amplitude to be the maximum value during tremor. We estimated the cumulative source amplitude ( I s) as the offset value of the time-integrated envelope of the vertical seismogram of tremor corrected for geometrical spreading and medium attenuation in the 5-10-Hz band. For eruption tremor signals, we also estimated the cumulative source pressure ( I p) from an infrasonic envelope waveform corrected for geometrical spreading. We studied these parameters of tremor signals associated with eruptions and lahars and explosion events at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. We identified two types of eruption tremor at Tungurahua: noise-like inharmonic waveforms and harmonic oscillatory signals. We found that I s increased linearly with increasing source amplitude for lahar tremor signals and explosion events, but I s increased exponentially with increasing source amplitude for inharmonic eruption tremor signals. The source characteristics of harmonic eruption tremor signals differed from those of inharmonic tremor signals. We found a linear relation between I s and I p for both explosion events and eruption tremor. Because I p may be proportional to the total mass involved during an eruption episode, this linear relation suggests that I s may be useful to quantify eruption size. The I s values we estimated for inharmonic eruption tremor were consistent with previous estimates of volumes of tephra fallout. The scaling relations among source parameters that we identified will contribute to our understanding of the dynamic processes associated with eruptions and lahars. This new approach is applicable in analyzing tremor sources in real time and may contribute to early assessment of the size of eruptions and lahars.

Regional propagation characteristics and source parameters of earthquakes in northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boatwright, John

1994-01-01

The vertical components of the S wave trains recorded on the Eastern Canadian Telemetered Network (ECTN) from 1980 through 1990 have been spectrally analyzed for source, site, and propagation characteristics. The data set comprises some 1033 recordings of 97 earthquakes whose magnitudes range from M ≈ 3 to 6. The epicentral distances range from 15 to 1000 km, with most of the data set recorded at distances from 200 to 800 km. The recorded S wave trains contain the phases S, SmS, Sn, and Lg and are sampled using windows that increase with distance; the acceleration spectra were analyzed from 1.0 to 10 Hz. To separate the source, site, and propagation characteristics, an inversion for the earthquake corner frequencies, low-frequency levels, and average attenuation parameters is alternated with a regression of residuals onto the set of stations and a grid of 14 distances ranging from 25 to 1000 km. The iteration between these two parts of the inversion converges in about 60 steps. The average attenuation parameters obtained from the inversion were Q = 1997 ± 10 and γ = 0.998 ± 0.003. The most pronounced variation from this average attenuation is a marked deamplification of more than a factor of 2 at 63 km and 2 Hz, which shallows with increasing frequency and increasing distance out to 200 km. The site-response spectra obtained for the ECTN stations are generally flat. The source spectral shape assumed in this inversion provides an adequate spectral model for the smaller events (Mo < 3 × 1021 dyne-cm) in the data set, whose Brune stress drops range from 5 to 150 bars. For the five events in the data set with Mo ≧ 1023 dyne-cm, however, the source spectra obtained by regressing the residuals suggest that an ω2 spectrum is an inadequate model for the spectral shape. In particular, the corner frequencies for most of these large events appear to be split, so that the spectra exhibit an intermediate behavior (where |ü(ω)| is roughly proportional to ω).

Microwave coherent emissions from solar flares - a look at through a large interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altyntsev, Alexandre; Sergei, Lesovoi; Natalia, Meshalkina; Dmitrii, Zhdanov; Natalia, Korolkova

2013-04-01

The report discusses the results of microwave observations of coherent emission sources with broadband spectropolarimeters and the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope (receiving frequency about 5.7 GHz). To date, more than 300 events with narrowband subsecond pulses were recorded. It is revealed that at the small real sizes of sources their apparent sizes can reach the SSRT beam width (≥ 15 arcsec) due to electromagnetic wave scattering by density fluctuations in the lower corona, or due to emission reflection from the underlying layers of the solar atmosphere. The fine emission sources usually occur near tops of the flare loops. In some events it was possible to reveal plasma parameters in the vicinity of the fine emission exciters from the X-ray, optical and continuum microwave images, and to identify the mechanisms of the coherent emission. The SSRT is an interferometer that allows to record spatial brightness distributions of a flare region at two close frequencies simultaneously. Such observations have showed that the frequency dynamics of fast drifting narrowband bursts (type III - like) is controlled not only by the velocity of exciter movement through gradients of the plasma parameters, but also by rapid changes in plasma parameters over time. We discuss the diagnostic potential of the observations of coherent emission sources and new possibilities of the instruments which are under construction now. The work is supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (State Contracts 16.518.11.7065 and 02.740.11.0576), and by the grants RFBR (12-02-91161-GFEN-a, 12-02-00616 and 12-02-00173-a

Constraints on Ultrahigh-Energy Cosmic-Ray Sources from a Search for Neutrinos above 10 PeV with IceCube.

PubMed

Aartsen, M G; Abraham, K; Ackermann, M; Adams, J; Aguilar, J A; Ahlers, M; Ahrens, M; Altmann, D; Andeen, K; Anderson, T; Ansseau, I; Anton, G; Archinger, M; Argüelles, C; Auffenberg, J; Axani, S; Bai, X; Barwick, S W; Baum, V; Bay, R; Beatty, J J; Becker Tjus, J; Becker, K-H; BenZvi, S; Berghaus, P; Berley, D; Bernardini, E; Bernhard, A; Besson, D Z; Binder, G; Bindig, D; Bissok, M; Blaufuss, E; Blot, S; Bohm, C; Börner, M; Bos, F; Bose, D; Böser, S; Botner, O; Braun, J; Brayeur, L; Bretz, H-P; Burgman, A; Carver, T; Casier, M; Cheung, E; Chirkin, D; Christov, A; Clark, K; Classen, L; Coenders, S; Collin, G H; Conrad, J M; Cowen, D F; Cross, R; Day, M; de André, J P A M; De Clercq, C; Del Pino Rosendo, E; Dembinski, H; De Ridder, S; Desiati, P; de Vries, K D; de Wasseige, G; de With, M; DeYoung, T; Díaz-Vélez, J C; di Lorenzo, V; Dujmovic, H; Dumm, J P; Dunkman, M; Eberhardt, B; Ehrhardt, T; Eichmann, B; Eller, P; Euler, S; Evenson, P A; Fahey, S; Fazely, A R; Feintzeig, J; Felde, J; Filimonov, K; Finley, C; Flis, S; Fösig, C-C; Franckowiak, A; Friedman, E; Fuchs, T; Gaisser, T K; Gallagher, J; Gerhardt, L; Ghorbani, K; Giang, W; Gladstone, L; Glagla, M; Glüsenkamp, T; Goldschmidt, A; Golup, G; Gonzalez, J G; Grant, D; Griffith, Z; Haack, C; Haj Ismail, A; Hallgren, A; Halzen, F; Hansen, E; Hansmann, B; Hansmann, T; Hanson, K; Hebecker, D; Heereman, D; Helbing, K; Hellauer, R; Hickford, S; Hignight, J; Hill, G C; Hoffman, K D; Hoffmann, R; Holzapfel, K; Hoshina, K; Huang, F; Huber, M; Hultqvist, K; In, S; Ishihara, A; Jacobi, E; Japaridze, G S; Jeong, M; Jero, K; Jones, B J P; Jurkovic, M; Kappes, A; Karg, T; Karle, A; Katz, U; Kauer, M; Keivani, A; Kelley, J L; Kemp, J; Kheirandish, A; Kim, M; Kintscher, T; Kiryluk, J; Kittler, T; Klein, S R; Kohnen, G; Koirala, R; Kolanoski, H; Konietz, R; Köpke, L; Kopper, C; Kopper, S; Koskinen, D J; Kowalski, M; Krings, K; Kroll, M; Krückl, G; Krüger, C; Kunnen, J; Kunwar, S; Kurahashi, N; Kuwabara, T; Labare, M; Lanfranchi, J L; Larson, M J; Lauber, F; Lennarz, D; Lesiak-Bzdak, M; Leuermann, M; Leuner, J; Lu, L; Lünemann, J; Madsen, J; Maggi, G; Mahn, K B M; Mancina, S; Mandelartz, M; Maruyama, R; Mase, K; Maunu, R; McNally, F; Meagher, K; Medici, M; Meier, M; Meli, A; Menne, T; Merino, G; Meures, T; Miarecki, S; Mohrmann, L; Montaruli, T; Moulai, M; Nahnhauer, R; Naumann, U; Neer, G; Niederhausen, H; Nowicki, S C; Nygren, D R; Obertacke Pollmann, A; Olivas, A; O'Murchadha, A; Palczewski, T; Pandya, H; Pankova, D V; Penek, Ö; Pepper, J A; Pérez de Los Heros, C; Pieloth, D; Pinat, E; Price, P B; Przybylski, G T; Quinnan, M; Raab, C; Rädel, L; Rameez, M; Rawlins, K; Reimann, R; Relethford, B; Relich, M; Resconi, E; Rhode, W; Richman, M; Riedel, B; Robertson, S; Rongen, M; Rott, C; Ruhe, T; Ryckbosch, D; Rysewyk, D; Sabbatini, L; Sanchez Herrera, S E; Sandrock, A; Sandroos, J; Sarkar, S; Satalecka, K; Schimp, M; Schlunder, P; Schmidt, T; Schoenen, S; Schöneberg, S; Schumacher, L; Seckel, D; Seunarine, S; Soldin, D; Song, M; Spiczak, G M; Spiering, C; Stahlberg, M; Stanev, T; Stasik, A; Steuer, A; Stezelberger, T; Stokstad, R G; Stößl, A; Ström, R; Strotjohann, N L; Sullivan, G W; Sutherland, M; Taavola, H; Taboada, I; Tatar, J; Tenholt, F; Ter-Antonyan, S; Terliuk, A; Tešić, G; Tilav, S; Toale, P A; Tobin, M N; Toscano, S; Tosi, D; Tselengidou, M; Turcati, A; Unger, E; Usner, M; Vandenbroucke, J; van Eijndhoven, N; Vanheule, S; van Rossem, M; van Santen, J; Veenkamp, J; Vehring, M; Voge, M; Vraeghe, M; Walck, C; Wallace, A; Wallraff, M; Wandkowsky, N; Weaver, Ch; Weiss, M J; Wendt, C; Westerhoff, S; Whelan, B J; Wickmann, S; Wiebe, K; Wiebusch, C H; Wille, L; Williams, D R; Wills, L; Wolf, M; Wood, T R; Woolsey, E; Woschnagg, K; Xu, D L; Xu, X W; Xu, Y; Yanez, J P; Yodh, G; Yoshida, S; Zoll, M

2016-12-09

We report constraints on the sources of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) above 10^{9}  GeV, based on an analysis of seven years of IceCube data. This analysis efficiently selects very high- energy neutrino-induced events which have deposited energies from 5×10^{5}  GeV to above 10^{11}  GeV. Two neutrino-induced events with an estimated deposited energy of (2.6±0.3)×10^{6}  GeV, the highest neutrino energy observed so far, and (7.7±2.0)×10^{5}  GeV were detected. The atmospheric background-only hypothesis of detecting these events is rejected at 3.6σ. The hypothesis that the observed events are of cosmogenic origin is also rejected at >99% CL because of the limited deposited energy and the nonobservation of events at higher energy, while their observation is consistent with an astrophysical origin. Our limits on cosmogenic neutrino fluxes disfavor the UHECR sources having a cosmological evolution stronger than the star formation rate, e.g., active galactic nuclei and γ-ray bursts, assuming proton-dominated UHECRs. Constraints on UHECR sources including mixed and heavy UHECR compositions are obtained for models of neutrino production within UHECR sources. Our limit disfavors a significant part of parameter space for active galactic nuclei and new-born pulsar models. These limits on the ultrahigh-energy neutrino flux models are the most stringent to date.

Source mechanisms of a collapsing solution mine cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lennart Kinscher, Jannes; Cesca, Simone; Bernard, Pascal; Contrucci, Isabelle; Mangeney, Anne; Piguet, Jack Pierre; Bigarre, Pascal

2016-04-01

The development and collapse of a ~200 m wide salt solution mining cavity was seismically monitored in the Lorraine basin in northeastern France. Seismic monitoring and other geophysical in situ measurements were part of a large multi-parameter research project founded by the research "group for the impact and safety of underground works" (GISOS), whose database is being integrated in the EPOS platform (European Plate Observing System). The recorded microseismic events (~ 50,000 in total) show a swarm-like behaviour, with clustering sequences lasting from seconds to days, and distinct spatiotemporal migration. The majority of swarming signals are likely related to detachment and block breakage processes, occurring at the cavity roof. Body wave amplitude patterns indicate the presence of relatively stable source mechanisms, either associated with dip-slip and/or tensile faulting. However, short inter-event times, the high frequency geophone recordings, and the limited network station coverage often limits the application of classical source analysis techniques. In order to deal with these shortcomings, we examined the source mechanisms through different procedures including modelling of observed and synthetic waveforms and amplitude spectra of some well located events, as well as modelling of peak-to-peak amplitude ratios for most of the detected events. The latter approach was used to infer the average source mechanism of many swarming events at once by using a single three component station. To our knowledge this approach is applied here for the first time and represents an useful tool for source studies of seismic swarms and seismicity clusters. The results of the different methods are consistent and show that at least 50 % of the microseismic events have remarkably stable source mechanisms, associated with similarly oriented thrust faults, striking NW-SE and dipping around 35-55°. Consistent source mechanisms are probably related to the presence of a preferential direction of pre-existing fault structures. As an interesting by-product, we demonstrate, for the first time directly on seismic data that the source radiation pattern significantly controls the detection capability of a seismic station and network.

ATLAS Eventlndex monitoring system using the Kibana analytics and visualization platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberis, D.; Cárdenas Zárate, S. E.; Favareto, A.; Fernandez Casani, A.; Gallas, E. J.; Garcia Montoro, C.; Gonzalez de la Hoz, S.; Hrivnac, J.; Malon, D.; Prokoshin, F.; Salt, J.; Sanchez, J.; Toebbicke, R.; Yuan, R.; ATLAS Collaboration

2016-10-01

The ATLAS EventIndex is a data catalogue system that stores event-related metadata for all (real and simulated) ATLAS events, on all processing stages. As it consists of different components that depend on other applications (such as distributed storage, and different sources of information) we need to monitor the conditions of many heterogeneous subsystems, to make sure everything is working correctly. This paper describes how we gather information about the EventIndex components and related subsystems: the Producer-Consumer architecture for data collection, health parameters from the servers that run EventIndex components, EventIndex web interface status, and the Hadoop infrastructure that stores EventIndex data. This information is collected, processed, and then displayed using CERN service monitoring software based on the Kibana analytic and visualization package, provided by CERN IT Department. EventIndex monitoring is used both by the EventIndex team and ATLAS Distributed Computing shifts crew.

Deterministic Tectonic Origin Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necmioglu, O.; Meral Ozel, N.

2014-12-01

Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential for any tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. Complex tectonic setting makes the a priori accurate assumptions of earthquake source parameters difficult and characterization of the faulting type is a challenge. Information on tsunamigenic sources is of crucial importance in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas, especially considering the short arrival times and lack of offshore sea-level measurements. In addition, the scientific community have had to abandon the paradigm of a ''maximum earthquake'' predictable from simple tectonic parameters (Ruff and Kanamori, 1980) in the wake of the 2004 Sumatra event (Okal, 2010) and one of the lessons learnt from the 2011 Tohoku event was that tsunami hazard maps may need to be prepared for infrequent gigantic earthquakes as well as more frequent smaller-sized earthquakes (Satake, 2011). We have initiated an extensive modeling study to perform a deterministic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Eastern Mediterranean and its Connected Seas. Characteristic earthquake source parameters (strike, dip, rake, depth, Mwmax) at each 0.5° x 0.5° size bin for 0-40 km depth (total of 310 bins) and for 40-100 km depth (total of 92 bins) in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea region (30°N-48°N and 22°E-44°E) have been assigned from the harmonization of the available databases and previous studies. These parameters have been used as input parameters for the deterministic tsunami hazard modeling. Nested Tsunami simulations of 6h duration with a coarse (2 arc-min) and medium (1 arc-min) grid resolution have been simulated at EC-JRC premises for Black Sea and Eastern and Central Mediterranean (30°N-41.5°N and 8°E-37°E) for each source defined using shallow water finite-difference SWAN code (Mader, 2004) for the magnitude range of 6.5 - Mwmax defined for that bin with a Mw increment of 0.1. Results show that not only the earthquakes resembling the well-known historical earthquakes such as AD 365 or AD 1303 in the Hellenic Arc, but also earthquakes with lower magnitudes do constitute to the tsunami hazard in the study area.

Simulation of Rate-Related (Dead-Time) Losses In Passive Neutron Multiplicity Counting Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, L.G.; Norman, P.I.; Leadbeater, T.W.

Passive Neutron Multiplicity Counting (PNMC) based on Multiplicity Shift Register (MSR) electronics (a form of time correlation analysis) is a widely used non-destructive assay technique for quantifying spontaneously fissile materials such as Pu. At high event rates, dead-time losses perturb the count rates with the Singles, Doubles and Triples being increasingly affected. Without correction these perturbations are a major source of inaccuracy in the measured count rates and assay values derived from them. This paper presents the simulation of dead-time losses and investigates the effect of applying different dead-time models on the observed MSR data. Monte Carlo methods have beenmore » used to simulate neutron pulse trains for a variety of source intensities and with ideal detection geometry, providing an event by event record of the time distribution of neutron captures within the detection system. The action of the MSR electronics was modelled in software to analyse these pulse trains. Stored pulse trains were perturbed in software to apply the effects of dead-time according to the chosen physical process; for example, the ideal paralysable (extending) and non-paralysable models with an arbitrary dead-time parameter. Results of the simulations demonstrate the change in the observed MSR data when the system dead-time parameter is varied. In addition, the paralysable and non-paralysable models of deadtime are compared. These results form part of a larger study to evaluate existing dead-time corrections and to extend their application to correlated sources. (authors)« less

Offline Performance of the Filter Bank EEW Algorithm in the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M. A.; Heaton, T. H.; Clinton, J. F.

2014-12-01

Medium size events like the M6.0 South Napa earthquake are very challenging for EEW: the damage such events produce can be severe, but it is generally confined to relatively small zones around the epicenter and the shaking duration is short. This leaves a very short window for timely EEW alerts. Algorithms that wait for several stations to trigger before sending out EEW alerts are typically not fast enough for these kind of events because their blind zone (the zone where strong ground motions start before the warnings arrive) typically covers all or most of the area that experiences strong ground motions. At the same time, single station algorithms are often too unreliable to provide useful alerts. The filter bank EEW algorithm is a new algorithm that is designed to provide maximally accurate and precise earthquake parameter estimates with minimum data input, with the goal of producing reliable EEW alerts when only a very small number of stations have been reached by the p-wave. It combines the strengths of single station and network based algorithms in that it starts parameter estimates as soon as 0.5 seconds of data are available from the first station, but then perpetually incorporates additional data from the same or from any number of other stations. The algorithm analyzes the time dependent frequency content of real time waveforms with a filter bank. It then uses an extensive training data set to find earthquake records from the past that have had similar frequency content at a given time since the p-wave onset. The source parameters of the most similar events are used to parameterize a likelihood function for the source parameters of the ongoing event, which can then be maximized to find the most likely parameter estimates. Our preliminary results show that the filter bank EEW algorithm correctly estimated the magnitude of the South Napa earthquake to be ~M6 with only 1 second worth of data at the nearest station to the epicenter. This estimate is then confirmed when updates based on more data from stations at farther distances become available. Because these early estimates saturate at ~M6.5, however, the magnitude estimate might have had to be considered a minimum bound.

Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

2007-12-01

Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

Superconducting cosmic strings as sources of cosmological fast radio bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Jiani; Wang, Kai; Cai, Yi-Fu

2017-11-01

In this paper we calculate the radio burst signals from three kinds of structures of superconducting cosmic strings. By taking into account the observational factors including scattering and relativistic effects, we derive the event rate of radio bursts as a function of redshift with the theoretical parameters Gμ and I of superconducting strings. Our analyses show that cusps and kinks may have noticeable contributions to the event rate and in most cases cusps would dominate the contribution, while the kink-kink collisions tend to have secondary effects. By fitting theoretical predictions with the normalized data of fast radio bursts, we for the first time constrain the parameter space of superconducting strings and report that the parameter space of Gμ ˜ [10^{-14}, 10^{-12}] and I ˜ [10^{-1}, 102] GeV fit the observation well although the statistic significance is low due to the lack of observational data. Moreover, we derive two types of best fittings, with one being dominated by cusps with a redshift z = 1.3, and the other dominated by kinks at the range of the maximal event rate.

Attenuation and source properties at the Coso Geothermal area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Lees, J.M.; Monastero, F.

1999-01-01

We use a multiple-empirical Green's function method to determine source properties of small (M -0.4 to 1.3) earthquakes and P- and S-wave attenuation at the Coso Geothermal Field, California. Source properties of a previously identified set of clustered events from the Coso geothermal region are first analyzed using an empirical Green's function (EGF) method. Stress-drop values of at least 0.5-1 MPa are inferred for all of the events; in many cases, the corner frequency is outside the usable bandwidth, and the stress drop can only be constrained as being higher than 3 MPa. P- and S-wave stress-drop estimates are identical to the resolution limits of the data. These results are indistinguishable from numerous EGF studies of M 2-5 earthquakes, suggesting a similarity in rupture processes that extends to events that are both tiny and induced, providing further support for Byerlee's Law. Whole-path Q estimates for P and S waves are determined using the multiple-empirical Green's function (MEGF) method of Hough (1997), whereby spectra from clusters of colocated events at a given station are inverted for a single attenuation parameter, ??, with source parameters constrained from EGF analysis. The ?? estimates, which we infer to be resolved to within 0.01 sec or better, exhibit almost as much scatter as a function of hypocentral distance as do values from previous single-spectrum studies for which much higher uncertainties in individual ?? estimates are expected. The variability in ?? estimates determined here therefore suggests real lateral variability in Q structure. Although the ray-path coverage is too sparse to yield a complete three-dimensional attenuation tomographic image, we invert the inferred ?? value for three-dimensional structure using a damped least-squares method, and the results do reveal significant lateral variability in Q structure. The inferred attenuation variability corresponds to the heat-flow variations within the geothermal region. A central low-Q region corresponds well with the central high-heat flow region; additional detailed structure is also suggested.

Intensive parameters of enstatite chondrite metamorphism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogel, Robert A.; Hess, Paul C.; Rutherford, Malcolm J.

1989-01-01

A geothermometer based on the assemblage kamacite-quartz-enstatite-oldhamite-troilite found in enstatite chondrites is described. Data obtained with the geothermometer reveal that the EL6 meteorites experienced temperatures exceeding 1000 C. These temperatures imply a metal-sulfide melting event that may have fractionated the melt from the source region.

Determination of Source Parameters for Earthquakes in the Northeastern United States and Quebec, Canada by Using Regional Broadband Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, W.; Kim, W.; Sykes, L. R.

2001-05-01

We studied approximately 20 earthquakes which have occurred in the Northeastern United States and Quebec, southern Canada since 1990. These earthquakes have local magnitude (ML) ranging from 3.5 to 5.2 and are well recorded by broadband seismographic stations in the region. Focal depth and moment tensor of these earthquakes are determined by using waveform inversion technique in which the best fit double-couple mechanism is obtained through a grid search over strike, dip and rake angles. Complete synthetics for three-component displacement signals in the period range 1 to 30 seconds are calculated. In most cases, long period Pnl and surface waves are used to constrain the source parameters. Our results indicate that most of the events show the horizontal compression with near horizontal P axis striking NE-SW. However, three events along the lower St. Lawrence River shows the P axes striking ESE-SE (100-130 degrees) with plunge angles of about 20 degrees. Focal depths of these events range from 2 to 28 km. Four events along the Appalachian Mts. have occurred with 2 to 5 km depths -- Jan. 16, 1994 Reading, Pa sequence, Sep. 25, 1998 Pymatuning, Pa event, Jan. 26, 2001 Ashutabula, Oh earthquake and an event in the Charlevoix seismic zone, Canada (Oct. 28, 1997). Two events have occurred at depth greater than 20 km. These are Quebec City earthquake on Nov. 6, 1997 and Christieville, Quebec event on May 4, 1997. We also observed the apparent discrepancy between the moment magnitude (Mw) and local magnitude (ML). Preliminary results show that for the events studied, Mw tends to be about 0.3 magnitude units smaller than the corresponding ML. However, some events show comparable Mw and ML values, for instance, the 1994 Reading, Pa sequence and Oct. 28, 1997 Charlevoix earthquake. These events have occurred at shallow depths and show low stress drops (less than 100 bars). We believe that this magnitude discrepancy reflects the source characteristics of intraplate events in the region. A striking feature of the waveform inversion method in the Northeastern United States is that we can determine fairly reliable focal depth and mechanisms for earthquakes with magnitude down to 3.5 and in some cases, down to 2.5. It is mainly due to availability of high quality three-component, broadband waveform data at short epicentral distances due to increasing coverage of the broadband seismographs of the Lamont-Doherty Cooperative seismographic Network (LCSN), the National Seismographic Network (USNSN) and the Canadian National Seismographic Network (CNSN) in the region. ~

Eccentric Black Hole Gravitational-wave Capture Sources in Galactic Nuclei: Distribution of Binary Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gondán, László; Kocsis, Bence; Raffai, Péter; Frei, Zsolt

2018-06-01

Mergers of binary black holes on eccentric orbits are among the targets for second-generation ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. These sources may commonly form in galactic nuclei due to gravitational-wave emission during close flyby events of single objects. We determine the distributions of initial orbital parameters for a population of these gravitational-wave sources. Our results show that the initial dimensionless pericenter distance systematically decreases with the binary component masses and the mass of the central supermassive black hole, and its distribution depends sensitively on the highest possible black hole mass in the nuclear star cluster. For a multi-mass black hole population with masses between 5 {M}ȯ and 80 {M}ȯ , we find that between ∼43–69% (68–94%) of 30 {M}ȯ –30 {M}ȯ (10 M ⊙–10 M ⊙) sources have an eccentricity greater than 0.1 when the gravitational-wave signal reaches 10 Hz, but less than ∼10% of the sources with binary component masses less than 30 {M}ȯ remain eccentric at this level near the last stable orbit (LSO). The eccentricity at LSO is typically between 0.005–0.05 for the lower-mass BHs, and 0.1–0.2 for the highest-mass BHs. Thus, due to the limited low-frequency sensitivity, the six currently known quasicircular LIGO/Virgo sources could still be compatible with this originally highly eccentric source population. However, at the design sensitivity of these instruments, the measurement of the eccentricity and mass distribution of merger events may be a useful diagnostic to identify the fraction of GW sources formed in this channel.

Near-source and Regional Experiments to Quantify Coupling and Propagation Effects of Seismic and Infrasound Signals from Mining Explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stump, B. W.; Hayward, C.; Zhou, R.; House, S. M.

2001-12-01

Mining explosions designed to fragment rock are known to be regular sources of seismic waves as exemplified by the routine identification of these events in the USGS Mining Seismicity Report. Near-surface explosions can also generate low frequency acoustic waves or infrasound that can propagate through the atmosphere to regional distances. An understanding of source contributions to the size and character of waves initiated in the solid earth and atmosphere can be used to interpret propagation path effects as well as provide a physical understanding of characteristics that can be used for identifying the source type from the regional observations. The porphyry copper district of the SW United States was chosen for the study of these effects because of the existence of mining explosions that are routinely included in the USGS Mining Seismicity Report and an abundance of high quality regional seismic stations. A regional network of infrasound arrays was installed in order to quantify the accompanying low-frequency acoustic signals. In-mine seismic and acoustic measurements were made to quantify the source. These observations were supplemented with GPS locked video and in-mine documentation of the explosion design parameters. This comprehensive data set has been used to estimate source parameters that can be used to interpret the regional signals. Infrasound signals observed over a one-year time period indicate that the direction of atmospheric winds controls the amplitude and thus detection of these signals. Regional seismic observations are strongly affected by the style of blasting. The largest of the ground truth events (~250,000 kg explosive) are detonated in relatively long blasting sequences (~2 seconds) and produce some of the smallest regional signals. Smaller blasts (~25,000 to 50,000 kg) are detonated over relatively shorter time periods (`~0.2 to 0.4 seconds) and produce the largest regional signals. This source time function signature in the regional seismograms results in little relation between total explosive weight and peak regional amplitudes. Event locations based on the regional seismic network produces a location bias that is magnitude dependent and spans a region with a radius of over 30 km. Part of the location bias appears to be a result of improper identification of the emergent onset of the smaller events.

Calculation of Source and Strucutral Parameters at Regional and Teleseismic Distances

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-28

Explosions, Elsevier, Amsterdam-Oxford-New York, 440 pages, K 1977. h .- 34 Denham.D., L.G. Alexander, and G . Worotnicki, The stress field near the ...km. Support «.r.i; this conclusion is the existence of short-period siiz-face wave», ^ g waves in events 5, 6, 9, and 13 and Love waves in events 1...for Engineering Applications, New York- Wiley 126 Fig.l Normalized field amplitude as a function of G , the angular displacement from the y-axis. in

Accurate estimation of seismic source parameters of induced seismicity by a combined approach of generalized inversion and genetic algorithm: Application to The Geysers geothermal area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picozzi, M.; Oth, A.; Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; De Landro, G.; Amoroso, O.

2017-05-01

The accurate determination of stress drop, seismic efficiency, and how source parameters scale with earthquake size is an important issue for seismic hazard assessment of induced seismicity. We propose an improved nonparametric, data-driven strategy suitable for monitoring induced seismicity, which combines the generalized inversion technique together with genetic algorithms. In the first step of the analysis the generalized inversion technique allows for an effective correction of waveforms for attenuation and site contributions. Then, the retrieved source spectra are inverted by a nonlinear sensitivity-driven inversion scheme that allows accurate estimation of source parameters. We therefore investigate the earthquake source characteristics of 633 induced earthquakes (Mw 2-3.8) recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (California) by a dense seismic network (i.e., 32 stations, more than 17.000 velocity records). We find a nonself-similar behavior, empirical source spectra that require an ωγ source model with γ > 2 to be well fit and small radiation efficiency ηSW. All these findings suggest different dynamic rupture processes for smaller and larger earthquakes and that the proportion of high-frequency energy radiation and the amount of energy required to overcome the friction or for the creation of new fractures surface changes with earthquake size. Furthermore, we observe also two distinct families of events with peculiar source parameters that in one case suggests the reactivation of deep structures linked to the regional tectonics, while in the other supports the idea of an important role of steeply dipping faults in the fluid pressure diffusion.

Near-Fault Broadband Ground Motion Simulations Using Empirical Green's Functions: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben (France-Germany) Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, Sergio; Hok, Sebastien; Festa, Gaetano; Causse, Mathieu; Lancieri, Maria

2017-09-01

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French-German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green's function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k -2 kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi-EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k-2 model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling.

Prediction of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion for the M=7.4 and M=7.2 1999, Turkey Earthquakes based upon Geological Structure Modeling and Local Earthquake Recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gok, R.; Hutchings, L.

2004-05-01

We test a means to predict strong ground motion using the Mw=7.4 and Mw=7.2 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes. We generate 100 rupture scenarios for each earthquake, constrained by a prior knowledge, and use these to synthesize strong ground motion and make the prediction. Ground motion is synthesized with the representation relation using impulsive point source Green's functions and synthetic source models. We synthesize the earthquakes from DC to 25 Hz. We demonstrate how to incorporate this approach into standard probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The synthesis of earthquakes is based upon analysis of over 3,000 aftershocks recorded by several seismic networks. The analysis provides source parameters of the aftershocks; records available for use as empirical Green's functions; and a three-dimensional velocity structure from tomographic inversion. The velocity model is linked to a finite difference wave propagation code (E3D, Larsen 1998) to generate synthetic Green's functions (DC < f < 0.5 Hz). We performed the simultaneous inversion for hypocenter locations and three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of the Marmara region using SIMULPS14 along with 2,500 events. We also obtained source moment and corner frequency and individual station attenuation parameter estimates for over 500 events by performing a simultaneous inversion to fit these parameters with a Brune source model. We used the results of the source inversion to deconvolve out a Brune model from small to moderate size earthquake (M<4.0) recordings to obtain empirical Green's functions for the higher frequency range of ground motion (0.5 < f < 25.0 Hz). Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-ENG-48.

Normal Fault Type Earthquakes Off Fukushima Region - Comparison of the 1938 Events and Recent Earthquakes -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

Off Fukushima region, Mjma 7.4 (event A) and 6.9 (event B) events occurred on November 6, 1938, following the thrust fault type earthquakes of Mjma 7.5 and 7.3 on the previous day. These earthquakes were estimated as normal fault earthquakes by Abe (1977, Tectonophysics). An Mjma 7.0 earthquake occurred on July 12, 2014 near event B and an Mjma 7.4 earthquake occurred on November 22, 2016 near event A. These recent events are the only M 7 class earthquakes occurred off Fukushima since 1938. Except for the two 1938 events, normal fault earthquakes have not occurred until many aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We compared the observed tsunami and seismic waveforms of the 1938, 2014, and 2016 earthquakes to examine the normal fault earthquakes occurred off Fukushima region. It is difficult to compare the tsunami waveforms of the 1938, 2014 and 2016 events because there were only a few observations at the same station. The teleseismic body wave inversion of the 2016 earthquake yielded with the focal mechanism of strike 42°, dip 35°, and rake -94°. Other source parameters were as follows: source area 70 km x 40 km, average slip 0.2 m, maximum slip 1.2 m, seismic moment 2.2 x 1019 Nm, and Mw 6.8. A large slip area is located near the hypocenter, and it is compatible with the tsunami source area estimated from tsunami travel times. The 2016 tsunami source area is smaller than that of the 1938 event, consistent with the difference in Mw: 7.7 for event A estimated by Abe (1977) and 6.8 for the 2016 event. Although the 2014 epicenter is very close to that of event B, the teleseismic waveforms of the 2014 event are similar to those of event A and the 2016 event. While Abe (1977) assumed that the mechanism of event B was the same as event A, the initial motions at some stations are opposite, indicating that the focal mechanisms of events A and B are different and more detailed examination is needed. The normal fault type earthquake seems to occur following the occurrence of M7 9 class thrust type earthquake at the plate boundary off Fukushima region.

Dynamics of dissolved organic matter during four storm events in two forest streams: source, export, and implications for harmful disinfection byproduct formation.

PubMed

Yang, Liyang; Hur, Jin; Lee, Sonmin; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang

2015-06-01

Dynamics of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events have profound influences on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and drinking water safety. This study investigated temporal variations in DOM during four storm events in two forest headwater streams (the EH and JH brooks, South Korea) and the impacts on the disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formation potential. The within-event variations of most DOM quantity parameters were similar to the flow rate in the EH but not in the larger JH brook. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) showed clockwise and counterclockwise hysteresis with the flow rate in the EH and JH brooks, respectively, indicating the importance of both flow path and DOM source pool size in determining the effects of storm events. The stream DOM became less aromatic/humified from the first to the last event in both brooks, probably due to the increasing fresh plant pool and the decreasing leaf litter pool during the course of rainy season. The DOC export during each event increased 1.3-2.7- and 1.1-7.0-fold by stormflows in the EH and JH brooks, respectively. The leaf litter and soil together was the major DOM source, particularly during early events. The enhanced DOM export probably increases the risks of DBPs formation in disinfection, as indicated by a strong correlation observed between DOC and trihalomethanes formation potential (THMFP). High correlations between two humic-like fluorescent components and THMFP further suggested the potential of assessing THMFP with in situ fluorescence sensors during storms.

SEISMIC SOURCE SCALING AND DISCRIMINATION IN DIVERSE TECTONIC ENVIRONMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R E; Mayeda, K; Walter, W R

2008-07-08

The objectives of this study are to improve low-magnitude (concentrating on M2.5-5) regional seismic discrimination by performing a thorough investigation of earthquake source scaling using diverse, high-quality datasets from varied tectonic regions. Local-to-regional high-frequency discrimination requires an estimate of how earthquakes scale with size. Walter and Taylor (2002) developed the MDAC (Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Corrections) method to empirically account for these effects through regional calibration. The accuracy of these corrections has a direct impact on our ability to identify clandestine explosions in the broad regional areas characterized by low seismicity. Unfortunately our knowledge at small magnitudes (i.e., m{sub b}more » < {approx} 4.0) is poorly resolved, and source scaling remains a subject of on-going debate in the earthquake seismology community. Recently there have been a number of empirical studies suggesting scaling of micro-earthquakes is non-self-similar, yet there are an equal number of compelling studies that would suggest otherwise. It is not clear whether different studies obtain different results because they analyze different earthquakes, or because they use different methods. Even in regions that are well studied, such as test sites or areas of high seismicity, we still rely on empirical scaling relations derived from studies taken from half-way around the world at inter-plate regions. We investigate earthquake sources and scaling from different tectonic settings, comparing direct and coda wave analysis methods that both make use of empirical Green's function (EGF) earthquakes to remove path effects. Analysis of locally recorded, direct waves from events is intuitively the simplest way of obtaining accurate source parameters, as these waves have been least affected by travel through the earth. But finding well recorded earthquakes with 'perfect' EGF events for direct wave analysis is difficult, limits the number of earthquakes that can be studied. We begin with closely-located, well-correlated earthquakes. We use a multi-taper method to obtain time-domain source-time-functions by frequency division. We only accept an earthquake and EGF pair if they are able to produce a clear, time-domain source pulse. We fit the spectral ratios and perform a grid-search about the preferred parameters to ensure the fits are well constrained. We then model the spectral (amplitude) ratio to determine source parameters from both direct P and S waves. We analyze three clusters of aftershocks from the well-recorded sequence following the M5 Au Sable Forks, NY, earthquake to obtain some of the first accurate source parameters for small earthquakes in eastern North America. Each cluster contains a M{approx}2, and two contain M{approx}3, as well as smaller aftershocks. We find that the corner frequencies and stress drops are high (averaging 100 MPa) confirming previous work suggesting that intraplate continental earthquakes have higher stress drops than events at plate boundaries. We also demonstrate that a scaling breakdown suggested by earlier work is simply an artifact of their more band-limited data. We calculate radiated energy, and find that the ratio of Energy to seismic Moment is also high, around 10{sup -4}. We estimate source parameters for the M5 mainshock using similar methods, but our results are more doubtful because we do not have a EGF event that meets our preferred criteria. The stress drop and energy/moment ratio for the mainshock are slightly higher than for the aftershocks. Our improved, and simplified coda wave analysis method uses spectral ratios (as for the direct waves) but relies on the averaging nature of the coda waves to use EGF events that do not meet the strict criteria of similarity required for the direct wave analysis. We have applied the coda wave spectral ratio method to the 1999 Hector Mine mainshock (M{sub w} 7.0, Mojave Desert) and its larger aftershocks, and also to several sequences in Italy with M{approx}6 mainshocks. The Italian earthquakes have higher stress drops than the Hector Mine sequence, but lower than Au Sable Forks. These results show a departure from self-similarity, consistent with previous studies using similar regional datasets. The larger earthquakes have higher stress drops and energy/moment ratios. We perform a preliminary comparison of the two methods using the M5 Au Sable Forks earthquake. Both methods give very consistent results, and we are applying the comparison to further events.« less

A FRAMEWORK FOR INTERPRETING FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS SEARCH EXPERIMENTS: APPLICATION TO THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trott, Cathryn M.; Tingay, Steven J.; Wayth, Randall B.

2013-04-10

We define a framework for determining constraints on the detection rate of fast transient events from a population of underlying sources, with a view to incorporate beam shape, frequency effects, scattering effects, and detection efficiency into the metric. We then demonstrate a method for combining independent data sets into a single event rate constraint diagram, using a probabilistic approach to the limits on parameter space. We apply this new framework to present the latest results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal fast transients search using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). In the 20 cm band, V-FASTR now has themore » ability to probe the regions of parameter space of importance for the observed Lorimer and Keane fast radio transient candidates by combining the information from observations with differing bandwidths, and properly accounting for the source dispersion measure, VLBA antenna beam shape, experiment time sampling, and stochastic nature of events. We then apply the framework to combine the results of the V-FASTR and Allen Telescope Array Fly's Eye experiments, demonstrating their complementarity. Expectations for fast transients experiments for the SKA Phase I dish array are then computed, and the impact of large differential bandwidths is discussed.« less

The bright and choked gamma-ray burst contribution to the IceCube and ANTARES low-energy excess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, Peter B.; Tamborra, Irene

2018-04-01

The increasing statistics of the high-energy neutrino flux observed by the IceCube Observatory points towards an excess of events above the atmospheric neutrino background in the 30–400 TeV energy range. Such an excess is compatible with the findings of the ANTARES Telescope and it would naturally imply the possibility that more than one source class contributes to the observed flux. Electromagnetically hidden sources have been invoked to interpret this excess of events at low energies. By adopting a unified model for the electromagnetically bright and choked gamma-ray bursts and taking into account particle acceleration at the internal and collimation shock radii, we discuss whether bright and choked bursts are viable candidates. Our findings suggest that, although producing a copious neutrino flux, choked and bright astrophysical jets cannot be the dominant sources of the excess of neutrino events. A fine tuning of the model parameters or distinct scenarios for choked jets should be invoked in order to explain the low-energy neutrino data of IceCube and ANTARES.

Characterize kinematic rupture history of large earthquakes with Multiple Haskell sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Z.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes are often regarded as continuous rupture along a single fault, but the occurrence of complex large events involving multiple faults and dynamic triggering challenges this view. Such rupture complexities cause difficulties in existing finite fault inversion algorithms, because they rely on specific parameterizations and regularizations to obtain physically meaningful solutions. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess reliability and uncertainty of obtained rupture models. Here we develop a Multi-Haskell Source (MHS) method to estimate rupture process of large earthquakes as a series of sub-events of varying location, timing and directivity. Each sub-event is characterized by a Haskell rupture model with uniform dislocation and constant unilateral rupture velocity. This flexible yet simple source parameterization allows us to constrain first-order rupture complexity of large earthquakes robustly. Additionally, relatively few parameters in the inverse problem yields improved uncertainty analysis based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework. Synthetic tests and application of MHS method on real earthquakes show that our method can capture major features of large earthquake rupture process, and provide information for more detailed rupture history analysis.

Understanding EROS2 observations toward the spiral arms within a classical Galactic model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moniez, M.; Sajadian, S.; Karami, M.; Rahvar, S.; Ansari, R.

2017-08-01

Aims: EROS (Expérience de Recherche d'Objets Sombres) has searched for microlensing toward four directions in the Galactic plane away from the Galactic center. The interpretation of the catalog optical depth is complicated by the spread of the source distance distribution. We compare the EROS microlensing observations with Galactic models (including the Besançon model), tuned to fit the EROS source catalogs, and take into account all observational data such as the microlensing optical depth, the Einstein crossing durations, and the color and magnitude distributions of the catalogued stars. Methods: We simulated EROS-like source catalogs using the HIgh-Precision PARallax COllecting Satellite (Hipparcos) database, the Galactic mass distribution, and an interstellar extinction table. Taking into account the EROS star detection efficiency, we were able to produce simulated color-magnitude diagrams that fit the observed diagrams. This allows us to estimate average microlensing optical depths and event durations that are directly comparable with the measured values. Results: Both the Besançon model and our Galactic model allow us to fully understand the EROS color-magnitude data. The average optical depths and mean event durations calculated from these models are in reasonable agreement with the observations. Varying the Galactic structure parameters through simulation, we were also able to deduce contraints on the kinematics of the disk, the disk stellar mass function (at a few kpc distance from the Sun), and the maximum contribution of a thick disk of compact objects in the Galactic plane (Mthick< 5 - 7 × 1010M⊙ at 95%, depending on the model). We also show that the microlensing data toward one of our monitored directions are significantly sensitive to the Galactic bar parameters, although much larger statistics are needed to provide competitive constraints. Conclusions: Our simulation gives a better understanding of the lens and source spatial distributions in the microlensing events. The goodness of a global fit taking into account all the observables (from the color-magnitude diagrams and microlensing observations) shows the validity of the Galactic models. Our tests with the parameters excursions show the unique sensitivity of the microlensing data to the kinematical parameters and stellar initial mass function. http://www.lal.in2p3.fr/recherche/eros

Non-Poissonian Distribution of Tsunami Waiting Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2007-12-01

Analysis of the global tsunami catalog indicates that tsunami waiting times deviate from an exponential distribution one would expect from a Poisson process. Empirical density distributions of tsunami waiting times were determined using both global tsunami origin times and tsunami arrival times at a particular site with a sufficient catalog: Hilo, Hawai'i. Most sources for the tsunamis in the catalog are earthquakes; other sources include landslides and volcanogenic processes. Both datasets indicate an over-abundance of short waiting times in comparison to an exponential distribution. Two types of probability models are investigated to explain this observation. Model (1) is a universal scaling law that describes long-term clustering of sources with a gamma distribution. The shape parameter (γ) for the global tsunami distribution is similar to that of the global earthquake catalog γ=0.63-0.67 [Corral, 2004]. For the Hilo catalog, γ is slightly greater (0.75-0.82) and closer to an exponential distribution. This is explained by the fact that tsunamis from smaller triggered earthquakes or landslides are less likely to be recorded at a far-field station such as Hilo in comparison to the global catalog, which includes a greater proportion of local tsunamis. Model (2) is based on two distributions derived from Omori's law for the temporal decay of triggered sources (aftershocks). The first is the ETAS distribution derived by Saichev and Sornette [2007], which is shown to fit the distribution of observed tsunami waiting times. The second is a simpler two-parameter distribution that is the exponential distribution augmented by a linear decay in aftershocks multiplied by a time constant Ta. Examination of the sources associated with short tsunami waiting times indicate that triggered events include both earthquake and landslide tsunamis that begin in the vicinity of the primary source. Triggered seismogenic tsunamis do not necessarily originate from the same fault zone, however. For example, subduction-thrust and outer-rise earthquake pairs are evident, such as the November 2006 and January 2007 Kuril Islands tsunamigenic pair. Because of variations in tsunami source parameters, such as water depth above the source, triggered tsunami events with short waiting times are not systematically smaller than the primary tsunami.

Analysis of induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emolo, A.; Maercklin, N.; Matrullo, E.; Orefice, A.; Amoroso, O.; Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Zollo, A.

2012-12-01

Fluid injection, steam extraction, and reservoir stimulation in geothermal systems lead to induced seismicity. While in rare cases induced events may be large enough to pose a hazard, on the other hand the microseismicity provides information on the extent and the space-time varying properties of the reservoir. Therefore, microseismic monitoring is important, both for mitigation of unwanted effects of industrial operations and for continuous assessment of reservoir conditions. Here we analyze induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal field in California, a vapor-dominated field with the top of the main steam reservoir some 1-3 km below the surface. Commercial exploitation began in the 1960s, and the seismicity increased with increasing field development. We focus our analyses on induced seismicity recorded between August 2007 and October 2011. Our calibrated waveform database contains some 15000 events with magnitudes between 1.0 and 4.5 and recorded by the LBNL Geysers/Calpine surface seismic network. We associated all data with events from the NCEDC earthquake catalog and re-picked first arrival times. Using selected events with at least 20 high-quality P-wave picks, we determined a minimum 1-D velocity model using VELEST. A well-constrained P-velocity model shows a sharp velocity increase at 1-2 km depth (from 3 to 5 km/s) and then a gradient-like trend down to about 5 km depth, where velocities reach values of 6-7 km/s. The station corrections show coherent, relatively high, positive travel time delays in the NW zone, thus indicating a strong lateral variation of the P-wave velocities. We determined an average Vp-to-Vs ratio of 1.67, which is consistent with estimates from other authors for the same time period. The events have been relocated in the new model using a non-linear probabilistic methods. The seismicity appears spatially diffused in a 15x10 km2 area elongated in NW-SE direction, and earthquake depths range between 0 and 6 km. As in previous seismicity studies of this geothermal field, we find that events occurring in the NW sector are on average deeper than in the SE area. To infer the present stress regime, we computed focal mechanisms of a large event data set with M > 2, using P-wave first-arrival polarities. The found fault-plane solutions show a dominant strike-slip and normal faulting mechanisms, with P and T axes coherently oriented with expected regional stress field for the area. We also determined the main seismic source parameters from a multi-step, iterative inversion of P-wave displacement spectra, assuming a four-parameters spectral model and a constant-Q attenuation mechanism. In particular, we computed seismic moments, source radii and stress drops. We observe a self-similar scaling of source parameters in the whole investigated magnitude range, with a nearly constant stress-drop of 20 and 120 MPa depending on the use of Brune (1970) or Madariaga (1976)'s source model respectively.

Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

2015-09-01

In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp distance dependency is particularly relevant, since this magnitude refers to the larger and probably tsunamigenic earthquakes. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect to the CMT-global solutions, whereas Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. After applying such distance correction the Mwp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ Mwp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time-series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge within less than 10 min (5 min in the Mediterranean region) toward the stable values. Our analysis shows that we can compute Mwp magnitudes that do not display short epicentral distance dependency overestimation, and we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning messages within less than 15 min after the event origin time.

The intensity signature of induced seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Gail M.; Wald, David J.; Worden, Charles; Quitoriano, Vince

2018-01-01

We analyze a comprehensive database of ∼63,000">∼63,000 geocoded community intensity observations from >400">>400 earthquakes of moment magnitude M≥3.5">M≥3.5 in Oklahoma from 2010 to 2016 to define the intensity signature of induced events. We show that natural and induced events have similar average intensities within 10 km of the epicenter. At greater distances, induced events have low‐average intensities compared with deeper natural events. These trends are predictable based on ground‐motion prediction equations. They are a consequence of two focal‐depth effects that have offsetting impacts on the strength of ground motion: (1) the epicenter is near the source for shallow events, and (2) the stress parameter scales with focal depth.

MOA-2008-BLG-379Lb: A massive planet from a high magnification event with a faint source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, D.; Sumi, T.; Fukagawa, M.

2014-01-10

We report on the analysis of the high microlensing event MOA-2008-BLG-379, which has a strong microlensing anomaly at its peak due to a massive planet with a mass ratio of q = 6.9 × 10{sup –3}. Because the faint source star crosses the large resonant caustic, the planetary signal dominates the light curve. This is unusual for planetary microlensing events, and as a result, the planetary nature of this light curve was not immediately noticed. The planetary nature of the event was found when the Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA) Collaboration conducted a systematic study of binary microlensing events previouslymore » identified by the MOA alert system. We have conducted a Bayesian analysis based on a standard Galactic model to estimate the physical parameters of the lens system. This yields a host star mass of M{sub L}=3.3{sub −1.2}{sup +1.7} M{sub ⊙} orbited by a planet of mass m{sub P}=0.56{sub −0.27}{sup +0.24} M{sub Jup} at an orbital separation of a=3.3{sub −1.2}{sup +1.3} AU at a distance of D{sub L}=4.1{sub −1.9}{sup +1.7} kpc. The faint source magnitude of I {sub S} = 21.30 and relatively high lens-source relative proper motion of μ{sub rel} = 7.6 ± 1.6 mas yr{sup –1} imply that high angular resolution adaptive optics or Hubble Space Telescope observations are likely to be able to detect the source star, which would determine the masses and distance of the planet and its host star.« less

Discrimination between induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahm, Torsten; Cesca, Simone; Hainzl, Sebastian; Braun, Thomas; Krüger, Frank

2015-04-01

Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the Mw 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the Mw 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Söhlingen gas field; and (3) the Mw 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly "human induced," "not even human triggered," and a third case in between both extremes.

Shallow seismic source parameter determination using intermediate-period surface wave amplitude spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Benjamin D.; Selby, Neil D.; Heyburn, Ross; Woodhouse, John H.

2012-09-01

Estimating reliable depths for shallow seismic sources is important in both seismo-tectonic studies and in seismic discrimination studies. Surface wave excitation is sensitive to source depth, especially at intermediate and short-periods, owing to the approximate exponential decay of surface wave displacements with depth. A new method is presented here to retrieve earthquake source parameters from regional and teleseismic intermediate period (100-15 s) fundamental-mode surface wave recordings. This method makes use of advances in mapping global dispersion to allow higher frequency surface wave recordings at regional and teleseismic distances to be used with more confidence than in previous studies and hence improve the resolution of depth estimates. Synthetic amplitude spectra are generated using surface wave theory combined with a great circle path approximation, and a grid of double-couple sources are compared with the data. Source parameters producing the best-fitting amplitude spectra are identified by minimizing the least-squares misfit in logarithmic amplitude space. The F-test is used to search the solution space for statistically acceptable parameters and the ranges of these variables are used to place constraints on the best-fitting source. Estimates of focal mechanism, depth and scalar seismic moment are determined for 20 small to moderate sized (4.3 ≤Mw≤ 6.4) earthquakes. These earthquakes are situated across a wide range of geographic and tectonic locations and describe a range of faulting styles over the depth range 4-29 km. For the larger earthquakes, comparisons with other studies are favourable, however existing source determination procedures, such as the CMT technique, cannot be performed for the smaller events. By reducing the magnitude threshold at which robust source parameters can be determined, the accuracy, especially at shallow depths, of seismo-tectonic studies, seismic hazard assessments, and seismic discrimination investigations can be improved by the application of this methodology.

Inflation Leading to a Slow Slip Event and Volcanic Unrest at Mount Etna in 2016: Insights From CGPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, V.; Mattia, M.; Montgomery-Brown, E.; Rossi, M.; Scandura, D.

2017-12-01

Global Positioning System (CGPS) data from Mount Etna between May 2015 and September 2016 show intense inflation and a concurrent Slow Slip Event (SSE) from 11 December 2015 to 17 May 2016. In May 2016, an eruptive phase started from the summit craters, temporarily stopping the ongoing inflation. The CGPS data presented here give us the opportunity to determine (1) the source of the inflating body, (2) the strain rate parameters highlighting shear strain rate accumulating along NE Rift and S Rift, (3) the magnitude of the SSE, and (4) possible interaction between modeled sources and other flank structures through stress calculations. By analytical inversion, we find an inflating source 5.5 km under the summit (4.4 km below sea level) and flank slip in a fragmented shallow structure accommodating displacements equivalent to a magnitude Mw6.1 earthquake. These large displacements reflect a complex mechanism of rotations indicated by the inversion of CGPS data for strain rate parameters. At the scale of the volcano, these processes can be considered precursors of seismic activity in the eastern flank of the volcano but concentrated mainly on the northern boundary of the mobile eastern flank along the Pernicana Fault and in the area of the Timpe Fault System.

Characterizing relationships among fecal indicator bacteria ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Bed sediments of streams and rivers may store high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens. Due to resuspension events, these contaminants can be mobilized into the water column and affect overall water quality. Other bacterial indicators such as microbial source tracking (MST) markers, developed to determine potential sources of fecal contamination, can also be resuspended from bed sediments. The primary objective of this study was to predict occurrence of waterborne pathogens in water and streambed sediments using a simple statistical model that includes traditionally measured FIB, environmental parameters and source allocation, using MST markers as predictor variables. Synoptic sampling events were conducted during baseflow conditions downstream from agricultural (AG), forested (FORS), and wastewater pollution control plant (WPCP) land uses. Concentrations of FIB and MST markers were measured in water and sediments, along with occurrences of the enteric pathogens Campylobacter, Listeria and Salmonella, and the virulence gene that carries Shiga toxin, stx2. Pathogens were detected in water more often than in underlying sediments. Shiga toxin was significantly related to land use, with concentrations of the ruminant marker selected as an independent variable that could correctly classify 76% and 64% of observed Shiga toxin occurrences in water and sediment, respectively. FIB concentrations and water quality parameters were also selected a

InSAR constraints on the kinematics and magnitude of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, D.; Bürgmann, R.

2005-12-01

The Mw 7.6 Bhuj intraplate event occurred along a blind thrust within the Kutch Rift basin of western India in January of 2001. The lack of any surface rupture and limited geodetic data have made it difficult to place the event on a known fault and constrain its source parameters. Moment tensor solutions and aftershock relocations indicate that the earthquake was a reverse event along an east-west striking, south dipping fault. In an effort to image the surface deformation, we have processed a total of 9 interferograms that span the coseismic event. Interferometry has proven difficult for the region because of technical difficulties experienced by the ERS Satellite around the time of the earthquake and because of low coherence. The stabilization of the orbital control by the European Space Agency beginning in 2002 has allowed us to interfere more recent SAR data with pre-earthquake data. Therefore, all available interferograms of the event include the first year of any postseismic deformation. The source region is characterized by broad floodplains interrupted by isolated highlands. Coherence is limited to the surrounding highlands and no data is available directly over the epicenter. Using the InSAR data along two descending and one ascending tracks, we perform a gridded search for the optimal source parameters of the earthquake. The deformation pattern is modeled assuming uniform slip on an elastic dislocation. Since the highland regions are discontinuous, the coherent InSAR phase is isolated to several individual patches. For each iteration of the gridded search algorithm, we optimize the fit to the data by solving for number of 2π phase cycles between coherent patches and the orbital gradient across each interferogram. Since the look angle varies across a SAR scene, a variable unit vector is calculated for each track. Inversion results place the center of the fault plane at 70.33° E/23.42° N at a depth of 21 km, and are consistent with the strike and dip suggested by the relocated aftershocks. The data also constrain the magnitude, rake, and finiteness of the event.

In Search of the Largest Possible Tsunami: An Example Following the 2011 Japan Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2012-12-01

Many tsunami hazard assessments focus on estimating the largest possible tsunami: i.e., the worst-case scenario. This is typically performed by examining historic and prehistoric tsunami data or by estimating the largest source that can produce a tsunami. We demonstrate that worst-case assessments derived from tsunami and tsunami-source catalogs are greatly affected by sampling bias. Both tsunami and tsunami sources are well represented by a Pareto distribution. It is intuitive to assume that there is some limiting size (i.e., runup or seismic moment) for which a Pareto distribution is truncated or tapered. Likelihood methods are used to determine whether a limiting size can be determined from existing catalogs. Results from synthetic catalogs indicate that several observations near the limiting size are needed for accurate parameter estimation. Accordingly, the catalog length needed to empirically determine the limiting size is dependent on the difference between the limiting size and the observation threshold, with larger catalog lengths needed for larger limiting-threshold size differences. Most, if not all, tsunami catalogs and regional tsunami source catalogs are of insufficient length to determine the upper bound on tsunami runup. As an example, estimates of the empirical tsunami runup distribution are obtained from the Miyako tide gauge station in Japan, which recorded the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami as the largest tsunami among 51 other events. Parameter estimation using a tapered Pareto distribution is made both with and without the Tohoku-oki event. The catalog without the 2011 event appears to have a low limiting tsunami runup. However, this is an artifact of undersampling. Including the 2011 event, the catalog conforms more to a pure Pareto distribution with no confidence in estimating a limiting runup. Estimating the size distribution of regional tsunami sources is subject to the same sampling bias. Physical attenuation mechanisms such as wave breaking likely limit the maximum tsunami runup at a particular site. However, historic and prehistoric data alone cannot determine the upper bound on tsunami runup. Because of problems endemic to sampling Pareto distributions of tsunamis and their sources, we recommend that tsunami hazard assessment be based on a specific design probability of exceedance following a pure Pareto distribution, rather than attempting to determine the worst-case scenario.

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Gove, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations for separation of surface deformation associated with serial seismic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qiang; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Yijun; Yang, Yinghui; Yong, Qi; Liu, Guoxiang; Liu, Xianwen

2018-03-01

Single satellite geodetic technique has weakness for mapping sequence of ground deformation associated with serial seismic events, like InSAR with long revisiting period readily leading to mixed complex deformation signals from multiple events. It challenges the observation capability of single satellite geodetic technique for accurate recognition of individual surface deformation and earthquake model. The rapidly increasing availability of various satellite observations provides good solution for overcoming the issue. In this study, we explore a sequential combination of multiple overlapping datasets from ALOS/PALSAR, ENVISAT/ASAR and GPS observations to separate surface deformation associated with the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki major quake and two strong aftershocks including the Mw 6.6 Iwaki and Mw 5.8 Ibaraki events. We first estimate the fault slip model of major shock with ASAR interferometry and GPS displacements as constraints. Due to the used PALSAR interferogram spanning the period of all the events, we then remove the surface deformation of major shock through forward calculated prediction thus obtaining PALSAR InSAR deformation associated with the two strong aftershocks. The inversion for source parameters of Iwaki aftershock is conducted using the refined PALSAR deformation considering that the higher magnitude Iwaki quake has dominant deformation contribution than the Ibaraki event. After removal of deformation component of Iwaki event, we determine the fault slip distribution of Ibaraki shock using the remained PALSAR InSAR deformation. Finally, the complete source models for the serial seismic events are clearly identified from the sequential combination of multi-source satellite observations, which suggest that the major quake is a predominant mega-thrust rupture, whereas the two aftershocks are normal faulting motion. The estimated seismic moment magnitude for the Tohoku-Oki, Iwaki and Ibaraki evens are Mw 9.0, Mw 6.85 and Mw 6.11, respectively.

Forward and Inverse Modeling of Near-Field Seismic Waveforms from Underground Nuclear Explosions for Effective Source Functions and Structure Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-04-05

IP o , I-S " M4.7 :" * AMIWILTON & U, .-- EALY(I969) : o H CARROLL(1966) HADLEY (19811 C . Figure 2. P and S-wave velocity structure for Pahute Mesa...8217; 0 .02 s wh ilIe S -. cI by C ) >, s) thIe kta i Is o f t he wav e for:7s are quite well modeled bot h ir tr~~e inversion nd in tefrad mod e Iin~ indi...ESTIMATION 7-Te source parameters determined through waveform inversion for the fo: s o r c ri i c e h v h s~ ahute Mesa events studied are sum.:rarited in

Low Stress Drop Swarm Events in the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, T. I.; Cummins, P. R.; Leonard, M.; Collins, C. D.

2004-12-01

Since September 2001, the small rural community of Burakin, southwest Western Australia, has been at the focus of seismic activity in Australia. In the six month period following commencement of seismicity, some 18,000 events had occurred, the largest of which having a moment magnitude of M 4.6. At the onset of activity, Geoscience Australia made a concerted effort to deploy a temporary seismic network in the region. The primary objective of this network was to collect high-quality strong-motion data for use in attenuation studies. Levels of seismicity near Burakin have decreased significantly since the 2001-02 swarm, however the region continues to experience a few small earthquakes per month. Earthquake source and path parameters are evaluated for a subset of 67 earthquakes. The dataset comprises some 375 seismograph and accelerograph records for events of magnitude M 2.3-4.6, including strong-motion data for seven earthquakes of M 4.0 and greater recorded at hypocentral distances less than 10 km. Source parameters are evaluated from far-field displacement spectra. Average corner frequencies are typically quite low, chiefly ranging between 2-3 Hz for events M 3.0 and above. Given the small variability in corner frequency, stress drop is observed to increase with magnitude, from very low values of 0.04 MPa to 18 MPa for the largest events in the catalogue. The stress drops for lower magnitude events (M < 4.0) are typically lower than those obtained for southeastern Australian earthquakes of similar seismic moment. Since corner frequency is not observed to vary significantly with seismic moment, it is thought that the spectral content of shallow, small swarm events and consequently, the stress drop, is characteristically different to that of isolated intraplate earthquakes. We suggest that the larger events may be faulting previously unfractured rock or healed fault asperities, while the smaller events are adjustment events or aftershocks and occur on recently faulted surfaces. The work described has provided a useful framework for the development of regional ground-motion relations for Western Australia and will enable a better understanding of the mechanisms driving intraplate seismicity.

Ignition characteristics of the nickel-based alloy UNS N07718 in pressurized oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bransford, James W.; Billiard, Phillip A.; Hurley, James A.; Mcdermott, Kathleen M.; Vazquez, Isaura

1989-01-01

The development of ignition and combustion in pressurized oxygen atmospheres was studied for the nickel based alloy UNS N07718. Ignition of the alloy was achieved by heating the top. It was found that the alloy would autoheat to destruction from temperatures below the solidus temperature. In addition, endothermic events occurred as the alloy was heated, many at reproducible temperatures. Many endothermic events occurred prior to abrupt increases in surface temperature and appeared to accelerate the rate of increase in specimen temperature. It appeared that the source of some endotherms may increase the oxidation rate of the alloy. Ignition parameters are defined and the temperatures at which these parameters occur are given for the oxygen pressure range of 1.72 to 13.8 MPa (250 to 2000 psia).

The use of waveform shapes to automatically determine earthquake focal depth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sipkin, S.A.

2000-01-01

Earthquake focal depth is an important parameter for rapidly determining probable damage caused by a large earthquake. In addition, it is significant both for discriminating between natural events and explosions and for discriminating between tsunamigenic and nontsunamigenic earthquakes. For the purpose of notifying emergency management and disaster relief organizations as well as issuing tsunami warnings, potential time delays in determining source parameters are particularly detrimental. We present a method for determining earthquake focal depth that is well suited for implementation in an automated system that utilizes the wealth of broadband teleseismic data that is now available in real time from the global seismograph networks. This method uses waveform shapes to determine focal depth and is demonstrated to be valid for events with magnitudes as low as approximately 5.5.

Local Infrasound Variability Related to In Situ Atmospheric Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Keehoon; Rodgers, Arthur; Seastrand, Douglas

2018-04-01

Local infrasound is widely used to constrain source parameters of near-surface events (e.g., chemical explosions and volcanic eruptions). While atmospheric conditions are critical to infrasound propagation and source parameter inversion, local atmospheric variability is often ignored by assuming homogeneous atmospheres, and their impact on the source inversion uncertainty has never been accounted for due to the lack of quantitative understanding of infrasound variability. We investigate atmospheric impacts on local infrasound propagation by repeated explosion experiments with a dense acoustic network and in situ atmospheric measurement. We perform full 3-D waveform simulations with local atmospheric data and numerical weather forecast model to quantify atmosphere-dependent infrasound variability and address the advantage and restriction of local weather data/numerical weather model for sound propagation simulation. Numerical simulations with stochastic atmosphere models also showed nonnegligible influence of atmospheric heterogeneity on infrasound amplitude, suggesting an important role of local turbulence.

Assessing the public health risk of microbial intrusion events in distribution systems: conceptual model, available data, and challenges.

PubMed

Besner, Marie-Claude; Prévost, Michèle; Regli, Stig

2011-01-01

Low and negative pressure events in drinking water distribution systems have the potential to result in intrusion of pathogenic microorganisms if an external source of contamination is present (e.g., nearby leaking sewer main) and there is a pathway for contaminant entry (e.g., leaks in drinking water main). While the public health risk associated with such events is not well understood, quantitative microbial risk assessment can be used to estimate such risk. A conceptual model is provided and the state of knowledge, current assumptions, and challenges associated with the conceptual model parameters are presented. This review provides a characterization of the causes, magnitudes, durations and frequencies of low/negative pressure events; pathways for pathogen entry; pathogen occurrence in external sources of contamination; volumes of water that may enter through the different pathways; fate and transport of pathogens from the pathways of entry to customer taps; pathogen exposure to populations consuming the drinking water; and risk associated with pathogen exposure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed solid state programmable thermostat/power controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Dennis A. (Inventor); Alexander, Jane C. (Inventor); Howard, David E. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

A self-contained power controller having a power driver switch, programmable controller, communication port, and environmental parameter measuring device coupled to a controllable device. The self-contained power controller needs only a single voltage source to power discrete devices, analog devices, and the controlled device. The programmable controller has a run mode which, when selected, upon the occurrence of a trigger event changes the state of a power driver switch and wherein the power driver switch is maintained by the programmable controller at the same state until the occurrence of a second event.

Spatial variability of mercury wet deposition in eastern Ohio: summertime meteorological case study analysis of local source influences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emily M. White; Gerald J. Keeler; Matthew S. Landis

2009-07-01

Extensive exploration of event precipitation data in the Ohio River Valley indicates that coal combustion emissions play an important role in mercury (Hg) wet deposition. During July-September 2006, an intensive study was undertaken to discern the degree of local source influence. Source-receptor relationships were explored by establishing a set of wet deposition sites in and around Steubenville, Ohio. For the three month period of study, volume-weighted mean Hg concentrations observed at the eight sites ranged from 10.2 to 22.3 ng L{sup -1}, but this range increased drastically on an event basis with a maximum concentration of 89.4 ng L{sup -1}more » and a minimum concentration of 4.1 ng L{sup -1}. A subset of events was explored in depth, and the degree of variability in Hg concentrations between sites was linked to the degree of local source enhancement. Samples collected at sites less than 1 km from coal-fired utility stacks (near-field) exhibited up to 72% enhancement in Hg concentrations over regionally representative samples on an event basis. Air mass transport and precipitating cell histories were traced in order to evaluate relationships between local point sources and receptor sites. It was found that the interaction of several dynamic atmospheric parameters combined to favor local Hg concentration enhancement over the more regional contribution. When significant meteorological factors (wind speed at time of maximum rain rate, wind speed 24 h prior to precipitation, mixing height, and observed ceiling) were explored, it was estimated that during summertime precipitation, 42% of Hg concentration in near-field samples could be attributed to the adjacent coal-fired utility source. 28 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Studing Regional Wave Source Time Functions Using A Massive Automated EGF Deconvolution Procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J. "; Schaff, D. P.

2010-12-01

Reliably estimated source time functions (STF) from high-frequency regional waveforms, such as Lg, Pn and Pg, provide important input for seismic source studies, explosion detection, and minimization of parameter trade-off in attenuation studies. The empirical Green’s function (EGF) method can be used for estimating STF, but it requires a strict recording condition. Waveforms from pairs of events that are similar in focal mechanism, but different in magnitude must be on-scale recorded on the same stations for the method to work. Searching for such waveforms can be very time consuming, particularly for regional waves that contain complex path effects and have reduced S/N ratios due to attenuation. We have developed a massive, automated procedure to conduct inter-event waveform deconvolution calculations from many candidate event pairs. The procedure automatically evaluates the “spikiness” of the deconvolutions by calculating their “sdc”, which is defined as the peak divided by the background value. The background value is calculated as the mean absolute value of the deconvolution, excluding 10 s around the source time function. When the sdc values are about 10 or higher, the deconvolutions are found to be sufficiently spiky (pulse-like), indicating similar path Green’s functions and good estimates of the STF. We have applied this automated procedure to Lg waves and full regional wavetrains from 989 M ≥ 5 events in and around China, calculating about a million deconvolutions. Of these we found about 2700 deconvolutions with sdc greater than 9, which, if having a sufficiently broad frequency band, can be used to estimate the STF of the larger events. We are currently refining our procedure, as well as the estimated STFs. We will infer the source scaling using the STFs. We will also explore the possibility that the deconvolution procedure could complement cross-correlation in a real time event-screening process.

High-Resolution Analysis of Seismicity Induced at Berlín Geothermal Field, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatek, G.; Bulut, F.; Dresen, G. H.; Bohnhoff, M.

2012-12-01

We investigate induced microseismic activity monitored at Berlín Geothermal Field, El Salvador, during a hydraulic stimulation. The site was monitored for a time period of 17 months using thirteen 3-component seismic stations located in shallow boreholes. Three stimulations were performed in the well TR8A with a maximum injection rate and well head pressure of 160l/s and 130bar, respectively. For the entire time period of our analysis, the acquisition system recorded 581 events with moment magnitudes ranging between -0.5 and 3.7. The initial seismic catalog provided by the operator was substantially improved: 1) We re-picked P- and S-wave onsets and relocated the seismic events using the double-difference relocation algorithm based on cross-correlation derived differential arrival time data. Forward modeling was performed using a local 1D velocity model instead of homogeneous full-space. 2) We recalculated source parameters using the spectral fitting method and refined the results applying the spectral ratio method. We investigated the source parameters and spatial and temporal changes of the seismic activity based on the refined dataset and studied the correlation between seismic activity and production. The achieved hypocentral precision allowed resolving the spatiotemporal changes in seismic activity down to a scale of a few meters. The application of spectral ratio method significantly improved the quality of source parameters in a high-attenuating and complex geological environment. Of special interest is the largest event (Mw3.7) and its nucleation process. We investigate whether the refined seismic data display any signatures that the largest event is triggered by the shut-in of the well. We found seismic activity displaying clear spatial and temporal patterns that could be easily related to the amount of water injected into the well TR8A and other reinjection wells in the investigated area. The migration of seismicity outside of injection point is observed while injection rate is increasing. The locations of migrating seismic events are related to the existing fault system that is independently supported by calculated focal mechanisms. We found that the event migration occurs until the shut-in of the well. We observe that the large magnitude events are observed right after the shut-in, located in undamaged parts of the fault system. Results show that the following stimulation episodes require increased injection rate level (or increased well head pressure) to re-activate the seismic activity (Kaiser Effect, "Crustal memory" effect). The static stress drop values increase with the distance from injection point that is interpreted to be related to pore pressure perturbations introduced by stimulation of the injection well.

Binary Sources and Binary Lenses in Microlensing Surveys of MACHOs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovic, N.; Di Stefano, R.; Perna, R.

2003-12-01

Microlensing is an intriguing phenomenon which may yield information about the nature of dark matter. Early observational searches identified hundreds of microlensing light curves. The data set consisted mainly of point-lens light curves and binary-lens events in which the light curves exhibit caustic crossings. Very few mildly perturbed light curves were observed, although this latter type should constitute the majority of binary lens light curves. Di Stefano (2001) has suggested that the failure to take binary effects into account may have influenced the estimates of optical depth derived from microlensing surveys. The work we report on here is the first step in a systematic analysis of binary lenses and binary sources and their impact on the results of statistical microlensing surveys. In order to asses the problem, we ran Monte-Carlo simulations of various microlensing events involving binary stars (both as the source and as the lens). For each event with peak magnification > 1.34, we sampled the characteristic light curve and recorded the chi squared value when fitting the curve with a point lens model; we used this to asses the perturbation rate. We also recorded the parameters of each system, the maximum magnification, the times at which each light curve started and ended and the number of caustic crossings. We found that both the binarity of sources and the binarity of lenses increased the lensing rate. While the binarity of sources had a negligible effect on the perturbation rates of the light curves, the binarity of lenses had a notable effect. The combination of binary sources and binary lenses produces an observable rate of interesting events exhibiting multiple "repeats" in which the magnification rises above and dips below 1.34 several times. Finally, the binarity of lenses impacted both the durations of the events and the maximum magnifications. This work was supported in part by the SAO intern program (NSF grant AST-9731923) and NASA contracts NAS8-39073 and NAS8-38248 (CXC).

Global Examination of Triggered Tectonic Tremor following the 2017 Mw8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, K.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Tang, V.; Klaeser, R. D.; Mattia, M.; Van der Lee, S.

2017-12-01

Triggered tremor is one type of slow earthquake that activated by teleseismic surfaces waves of large magnitude earthquake. Observations of triggered tremor can help to evaluate the background ambient tremor rate and slow slip events in the surrounding region. The Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake in Mexico is an ideal tremor-triggering candidate for a global search for triggered tremor. Here, we examine triggered tremor globally following the M8.1 event and model the tremor-triggering potential. We examine 7,000 seismic traces and found a widely spread triggered tremor along the western coast of the North America occur during the surface waves of the Mw 8.1 event. Triggered tremor appeared in the San Jacinto Fault, San Andreas Fault around Parkfield, and Calaveras Fault in California, in Vancouver Island in Cascadia subduction zone, in Queen Charlotte Margin and Eastern Denali Fault in Canada, and in Alaska and Aleutian Arc. In addition, we observe a newly found triggered tremor source in Mt. Etna in Sicily Island, Italy. However, we do not find clear triggered tremor evidences in the tremor active regions in Japan, Taiwan, and in New Zealand. We model tremor-triggering potential at the triggering earthquake source and triggered tremor sources. Our modeling results suggest the source parameters of the M8.1 triggering events and the stress at the triggered fault zone are two critical factors to control tremor-triggering threshold.

Transport of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Source-specific Indicator Organisms, and Standard Water Quality Constituents During Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturdevant-Rees, P. L.; Bourdeau, D.; Baker, R.; Long, S. C.; Barten, P. K.

2004-05-01

Microbial and water-quality measurements are collected during storm events under a variety of meteorological and land-use conditions in order to 1) identify risk of Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts and other constituents, including microbial indicator organisms, entering surface waters from various land uses during periods of surface runoff; 2) optimize storm sampling procedures for these parameters; and 3) optimize strategies for accurate determination of constituent loads. The investigation is focused on four isolated land uses: forested with free ranging wildlife, beaver influenced forested with free ranging wildlife, residential/commercial, and dairy farm grazing/pastureland using an upstream and downstream sampling strategy. Traditional water-quality analyses include pH, temperature, turbidity, conductivity, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl-nitrogen, and ammonia nitrogen, Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts. Total coliforms and fecal coliforms are measured as industry standard microbial analyses. Sorbitol-fermenting Bifidobacteria, Rhodococcus coprophilus, Clostridium perfringens spores, and Somatic and F-specific coliphages are measured at select sites as potential alternative source-specific indicator organisms. Upon completion of the project, the final database will consist of wet weather transport data for a set of parameters during twenty-four distinct storm-events in addition to monthly baseline data. A subset of the results to date will be presented, with focus placed on demonstrating the impact of beaver on constituent loadings over a variety of hydrologic and meteorological conditions.

Teleseismic Body Wave Analysis for the 27 September 2003 Altai, Earthquake (Mw7.4) and Large Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Gonzalez, J. M.; Mellors, R.

2007-05-01

We investigate the kinematics of the rupture process for the September 27, 2003, Mw7.3, Altai earthquake and its associated large aftershocks. This is the largest earthquake striking the Altai mountains within the last 50 years, which provides important constraints on the ongoing tectonics. The fault plane solution obtained by teleseismic body waveform modeling indicated a predominantly strike-slip event (strike=130, dip=75, rake 170), Scalar moment for the main shock ranges from 0.688 to 1.196E+20 N m, a source duration of about 20 to 42 s, and an average centroid depth of 10 km. Source duration would indicate a fault length of about 130 - 270 km. The main shock was followed closely by two aftershocks (Mw5.7, Mw6.4) occurred the same day, another aftershock (Mw6.7) occurred on 1 October , 2003. We also modeled the second aftershock (Mw6.4) to asses geometric similarities during their respective rupture process. This aftershock occurred spatially very close to the mainshock and possesses a similar fault plane solution (strike=128, dip=71, rake=154), and centroid depth (13 km). Several local conditions, such as the crustal model and fault geometry, affect the correct estimation of some source parameters. We perfume a sensitivity evaluation of several parameters, including centroid depth, scalar moment and source duration, based on a point and finite source modeling. The point source approximation results are the departure parameters for the finite source exploration. We evaluate the different reported parameters to discard poor constrained models. In addition, deformation data acquired by InSAR are also included in the analysis.

Rethinking moment tensor inversion methods to retrieve the source mechanisms of low-frequency seismic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, S.; Neuberg, J.

2011-12-01

Volcanoes exhibit a variety of seismic signals. One specific type, the so-called long-period (LP) or low-frequency event, has proven to be crucial for understanding the internal dynamics of the volcanic system. These long period (LP) seismic events have been observed at many volcanoes around the world, and are thought to be associated with resonating fluid-filled conduits or fluid movements (Chouet, 1996; Neuberg et al., 2006). While the seismic wavefield is well established, the actual trigger mechanism of these events is still poorly understood. Neuberg et al. (2006) proposed a conceptual model for the trigger of LP events at Montserrat involving the brittle failure of magma in the glass transition in response to the upwards movement of magma. In an attempt to gain a better quantitative understanding of the driving forces of LPs, inversions for the physical source mechanisms have become increasingly common. Previous studies have assumed a point source for waveform inversion. Knowing that applying a point source model to synthetic seismograms representing an extended source process does not yield the real source mechanism, it can, however, still lead to apparent moment tensor elements which then can be compared to previous results in the literature. Therefore, this study follows the proposed concepts of Neuberg et al. (2006), modelling the extended LP source as an octagonal arrangement of double couples approximating a circular ringfault bounding the circumference of the volcanic conduit. Synthetic seismograms were inverted for the physical source mechanisms of LPs using the moment tensor inversion code TDMTISO_INVC by Dreger (2003). Here, we will present the effects of changing the source parameters on the apparent moment tensor elements. First results show that, due to negative interference, the amplitude of the seismic signals of a ringfault structure is greatly reduced when compared to a single double couple source. Furthermore, best inversion results yield a solution comprised of positive isotropic and compensated linear vector dipole components. Thus, the physical source mechanisms of volcano seismic signals may be misinterpreted as opening shear or tensile cracks when wrongly assuming a point source. In order to approach the real physical sources with our models, inversions based on higher-order tensors might have to be considered in the future. An inversion technique where the point source is replaced by a so-called moment tensor density would allow inversions of volcano seismic signals for sources that can then be temporally and spatially extended.

Rupture Dynamics and Scaling Behavior of Hydraulically Stimulated Micro-Earthquakes in a Shale Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viegas, G. F.; Urbancic, T.; Baig, A. M.

2014-12-01

In hydraulic fracturing completion programs fluids are injected under pressure into fractured rock formations to open escape pathways for trapped hydrocarbons along pre-existing and newly generated fractures. To characterize the failure process, we estimate static and dynamic source and rupture parameters, such as dynamic and static stress drop, radiated energy, seismic efficiency, failure modes, failure plane orientations and dimensions, and rupture velocity to investigate the rupture dynamics and scaling relations of micro-earthquakes induced during a hydraulic fracturing shale completion program in NE British Columbia, Canada. The relationships between the different parameters combined with the in-situ stress field and rock properties provide valuable information on the rupture process giving insights into the generation and development of the fracture network. Approximately 30,000 micro-earthquakes were recorded using three multi-sensor arrays of high frequency geophones temporarily placed close to the treatment area at reservoir depth (~2km). On average the events have low radiated energy, low dynamic stress and low seismic efficiency, consistent with the obtained slow rupture velocities. Events fail in overshoot mode (slip weakening failure model), with fluids lubricating faults and decreasing friction resistance. Events occurring in deeper formations tend to have faster rupture velocities and are more efficient in radiating energy. Variations in rupture velocity tend to correlate with variation in depth, fault azimuth and elapsed time, reflecting a dominance of the local stress field over other factors. Several regions with different characteristic failure modes are identifiable based on coherent stress drop, seismic efficiency, rupture velocities and fracture orientations. Variations of source parameters with rock rheology and hydro-fracture fluids are also observed. Our results suggest that the spatial and temporal distribution of events with similar characteristic rupture behaviors can be used to determine reservoir geophysical properties, constrain reservoir geo-mechanical models, classify dynamic rupture processes for fracture models and improve fracture treatment designs.

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

2018-04-01

There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

Virtual Seismometers for Induced Seismicity Monitoring and Full Moment Tensor Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morency, C.; Matzel, E.

2016-12-01

Induced seismicity is associated with subsurface fluid injection, and puts at risk efforts to develop geologic carbon sequestration and enhanced geothermal systems. We are developing methods to monitor the microseismically active zone so that we can ultimately identify faults at risk of slipping. The virtual seismometer method (VSM) is an interferometric technique that is very sensitive to the source parameters (location, mechanism and magnitude) and to the Earth structure in the source region. VSM works by virtually placing seismometers inside a micro events cloud, where we can focus on properties directly between induced micro events, and effectively replacing each earthquake with a virtual seismometer recording all the others. Here, we show that the cross-correlated signals from seismic wavefields triggered by two events and recorded at the surface are a combination of the strain field between these two sources times a moment tensor. Based on this relationship, we demonstrate how we can use these measured cross-correlated signals to invert for full moment tensor. The advantage of VSM is to allow to considerably reduce the modeled numerical domain to the region directly around the micro events cloud, which lowers computational cost, permits to reach higher frequency resolution, and suppresses the impact of the Earth structural model uncertainties outside the micro events cloud. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Global transients in ultraviolet and red-infrared ranges from data of Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garipov, G. K.; Khrenov, B. A.; Klimov, P. A.; Klimenko, V. V.; Mareev, E. A.; Martines, O.; Mendoza, E.; Morozenko, V. S.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Park, I. H.; Ponce, E.; Rivera, L.; Salazar, H.; Tulupov, V. I.; Vedenkin, N. N.; Yashin, I. V.

2013-01-01

Light detectors sensitive to wavelength ranges 240-400 nm and beyond 610 nm (which we refer to, for simplicity, as the UV and Red bands) on board Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite have detected transient flashes in the atmosphere of duration 1-128 ms. Measured ratio of the number of Red photons to the number of UV photons indicates that source of transient radiation is at high atmosphere altitude (>50 km). Distribution of events with various photon numbers Qa in the atmosphere found to be different for "luminous" events Qa = 1023 - 1026 (with exponent of differential distribution -2.2) and for "faint" events Qa = 1021 - 1023 (with exponent - 0.97). Luminous event parameters (atmosphere altitude, energy released to radiation, and temporal profiles) are similar to observed elsewhere parameters of transient luminous events (TLE) of elves, sprites, halo, and gigantic blue jets types. Global map of luminous events demonstrates concentration to equatorial zones (latitudes 30°N to 30°S) above continents. Faint events (with number of photons Qa = 1020 - 5ṡ 1021) are distributed more uniformly over latitudes and longitudes. Phenomenon of series of transients registered every minute along satellite orbit (from 3 to 16 transients in one series) was observed. Most TLE-type events belonged to series. Single transients are in average fainter than serial ones. Some transients belonging to series occurs far away of thunderstorm regions. Origin of faint single transients is not clear; several hypothetical models of their production are discussed.

Discovery and Characterization of a Caustic Crossing Microlensing Event in the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcock, C.; Allsman, R. A.; Alves, D.; Axelrod, T. S.; Becker, A. C.; Bennett, D. P.; Cook, K. H.; Drake, A. J.; Freeman, K. C.; Griest, K.; King, L. J.; Lehner, M. J.; Marshall, S. L.; Minniti, D.; Peterson, B. A.; Pratt, M. R.; Quinn, P. J.; Rhie, S. H.; Rodgers, A. W.; Stetson, P. B.; Stubbs, C. W.; Sutherland, W.; Tomaney, A.; Vandehei, T.

1999-06-01

We present photometric observations and analysis of the second microlensing event detected toward the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), MACHO Alert 98-SMC-1. This event was detected early enough to allow intensive observation of the light curve. These observations revealed 98-SMC-1 to be the first caustic crossing binary microlensing event toward the Magellanic Clouds to be discovered in progress. Frequent coverage of the evolving light curve allowed an accurate prediction for the date of the source crossing out of the lens caustic structure. The caustic crossing temporal width, along with the angular size of the source star, measures the proper motion of the lens with respect to the source and thus allows an estimate of the location of the lens. Lenses located in the Galactic halo would have a velocity projected to the SMC of v̂~1500 kms-1, while an SMC lens would typically have v̂~60 kms-1. The event light curve allows us to obtain a unique fit to the parameters of the binary lens and to estimate the proper motion of the lensing system. We have performed a joint fit to the MACHO/GMAN data presented here, including recent EROS data of this event from Afonso and collaborators. These joint data are sufficient to constrain the time t* for the lens to move an angle equal to the source angular radius: t*=0.116+/-0.010 days. We estimate a radius for the lensed source of R*=1.1+/-0.1 Rsolar from its unblended color and magnitude. This yields a projected velocity of v̂=76+/-10 kms-1. Only 0.12% of halo lenses would be expected to have a v̂ value at least as small as this, while 38% of SMC lenses would be expected to have v̂ as large as this. This implies that the lensing system is more likely to reside in the SMC than in the Galactic halo. Similar observations of future Magellanic Cloud microlensing events will help to determine the contribution of MACHOS to the Galaxy's dark halo.

Period and amplitude of non-volcanic tremors and repeaters: a dimensional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Stefan

2017-04-01

Since its relatively recent discovery, the origin of non-volcanic tremor has been source of great curiosity and debate. Two main interpretations have been proposed, one based on fluid migration, the other relating to slow slip events on a plate boundary (the latter hypothesis has recently gained considerable ground). Here I define the conditions of slip of one or more small asperities embedded within a larger creeping fault patch. The radiation-damping equation coupled with rate-and-state friction evolution equations results in a system of ordinary differential equations. For a finite size asperity, the system equates to a peculiar non-linear damped oscillator, converging to a limit cycle. Dimensional analysis shows that period and amplitude of the oscillations depend on dimensional parameter combinations formed from a limited set of parameters: asperity dimension Γ, rate and state friction parameters (a, b, L), shear stiffness of the medium G, mass density ρ, background creep rate ˙V and normal stress σ. Under realistic parameter ranges, the asperity may show (1) tremor-like short period oscillations, accelerating to radiate sufficient energy to be barely detectable and a periodicity of the order of one to ten Hertz, as observed for non-volcanic tremor activity at the base of large inter-plate faults; (2) isolated stick-slip events with intervals in the order of days to months, as observed in repeater events of modest magnitude within creeping fault sections.

Variability in aerosol optical properties over an urban site, Kanpur, in the Indo-Gangetic Plain: A case study of haze and dust events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ram, Kirpa; Singh, Sunita; Sarin, M. M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Tripathi, S. N.

2016-06-01

In this study, we report on three important optical parameters, viz. absorption and scattering coefficients (babs, bscat) and single scattering abledo (SSA) based on one-year chemical-composition data collected from an urban site (Kanpur) in the Indo-Gangetic-Plain (IGP) of northern India. In addition, absorption Ängstrom exponent (AAE) was also estimated in order to understand the wavelength dependence of absorption and to decipher emission sources of carbonaceous aerosols, in particular of black carbon. The absorption and scattering coefficients ranged between 8.3 to 95.2 Mm- 1 (1 Mm- 1 = 10- 6 m- 1) and 58 to 564 Mm- 1, respectively during the study period (for n = 66; from January 2007 to March 2008) and exhibit large seasonal variability with higher values occurring in winter and lower in the summer. Single scattering albedo varied from 0.65 to 0.92 whereas AAE ranged from 0.79 to 1.40 during pre-monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The strong seasonal variability in aerosol optical properties is attributed to varying contribution from different emission sources of carbonaceous aerosols in the IGP. A case study of haze and dust events further provide information on extreme variability in aerosol optical parameters, particularly SSA, a crucial parameter in atmospheric radiative forcing estimates.

Strong Ground Motion Prediction By Composite Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Irikura, K.; Zahradnik, J.

2003-12-01

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a possible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock). The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled either as a finite or point source, differences between these choices are shown. The final slip and duration of each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Absolute value of subevents' stress drop is free parameter. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally layered crustal model. An estimation of subevents' stress drop is based on fitting empirical attenuation relations for PGA and PGV, as they represent robust information on strong ground motion caused by earthquakes, including both path and source effect. We use the 2000 M6.6 Western Tottori, Japan, earthquake as validation event, providing comparison between predicted and observed waveforms.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for northern Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Kosuwan, S.; Nguyen, M. L.; Shi, X.; Sieh, K.

2016-12-01

We assess seismic hazard for northern Southeast Asia through constructing an earthquake and fault database, conducting a series of ground-shaking scenarios and proposing regional seismic hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters from global and local seismic catalogues, including the ISC, ISC-GEM, the global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, Seismological Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. To harmonize the earthquake parameters from various catalogue sources, we remove duplicate events and unify magnitudes into the same scale. Our active fault database include active fault data from previous studies, e.g. the active fault parameters determined by Wang et al. (2014), Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. Based on the parameters from analysis of the databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and time elapsed of last events), we determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the felt intensities of historical earthquakes to the modelled ground motions using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). By incorporating the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions, we utilized site effect and assessed probabilistic seismic hazard. The highest seismic hazard is in the region close to the Sagaing Fault, which cuts through some major cities in central Myanmar. The northern segment of Sunda megathrust, which could potentially cause M8-class earthquake, brings significant hazard along the Western Coast of Myanmar and eastern Bangladesh. Besides, we conclude a notable hazard level in northern Vietnam and the boundary between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, due to a series of strike-slip faults, which could potentially cause moderate-large earthquakes. Note that although much of the region has a low probability of damaging shaking, low-probability events have resulted in much destruction recently in SE Asia (e.g. 2008 Wenchuan, 2015 Sabah earthquakes).

Evaluation of land use and water quality in an agricultural watershed in the USA indicates multiple sources of bacterial impairment.

PubMed

Wittman, Jacob; Weckwerth, Andrew; Weiss, Chelsea; Heyer, Sharon; Seibert, Jacob; Kuennen, Ben; Ingels, Chad; Seigley, Lynette; Larsen, Kirk; Enos-Berlage, Jodi

2013-12-01

Pathogens are the number one cause of impairments of assessed rivers and streams in the USA and pose a significant human health hazard. The Dry Run Creek Watershed in Northeast Iowa has been designated as impaired by the State of Iowa because of high levels of Escherichia coli bacteria. To investigate the nature of this impairment, land use and stream bank assessments were coupled with comprehensive water quality monitoring. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters were measured at 13 different sites in the watershed, including pH, temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonia-N, nitrate + nitrite-N, total phosphorus, and E. coli. In addition, benthic macroinvertebrate communities were analyzed at seven sites, and optical brightener tests were performed late in the season. Results identified segments of the watershed that were more prominent contributors of E. coli, and correlations were observed between levels of E. coli and several chemical parameters, including ammonia-N, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Interestingly, distinct sites emerged as more prominent contributors of these elements during rain vs. non-rain events, suggesting different types of sources. Both the amount of rainfall and the time elapsed between the rain event and the sampling influenced E. coli levels during wet weather conditions. Nitrate + nitrite-N displayed a unique response to rain events compared with the other parameters, suggesting a different delivery route. Analyses of benthic macroinvertebrate communities were consistent with pollution trends. Collectively, these data suggest distinct agriculturally related E. coli contributions, as well as specific areas and practices for water quality improvement strategies. This study can serve as a resource for evaluating agricultural watersheds that are impaired for bacteria.

Volcanic eruption source parameters from active and passive microwave sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montopoli, Mario; Marzano, Frank S.; Cimini, Domenico; Mereu, Luigi

2016-04-01

It is well known, in the volcanology community, that precise information of the source parameters characterising an eruption are of predominant interest for the initialization of the Volcanic Transport and Dispersion Models (VTDM). Source parameters of main interest would be the top altitude of the volcanic plume, the flux of the mass ejected at the emission source, which is strictly related to the cloud top altitude, the distribution of volcanic mass concentration along the vertical column as well as the duration of the eruption and the erupted volume. Usually, the combination of a-posteriori field and numerical studies allow constraining the eruption source parameters for a given volcanic event thus making possible the forecast of ash dispersion and deposition from future volcanic eruptions. So far, remote sensors working at visible and infrared channels (cameras and radiometers) have been mainly used to detect, track and provide estimates of the concentration content and the prevailing size of the particles propagating within the ash clouds up to several thousand of kilometres far from the source as well as track back, a-posteriori, the accuracy of the VATDM outputs thus testing the initial choice made for the source parameters. Acoustic wave (infrasound) and microwave fixed scan radar (voldorad) were also used to infer source parameters. In this work we want to put our attention on the role of sensors operating at microwave wavelengths as complementary tools for the real time estimations of source parameters. Microwaves can benefit of the operability during night and day and a relatively negligible sensitivity to the presence of clouds (non precipitating weather clouds) at the cost of a limited coverage and larger spatial resolution when compared with infrared sensors. Thanks to the aforementioned advantages, the products from microwaves sensors are expected to be sensible mostly to the whole path traversed along the tephra cloud making microwaves particularly appealing for estimates close to the volcano emission source. Near the source the cloud optical thickness is expected to be large enough to induce saturation effects at the infrared sensor receiver thus vanishing the brightness temperature difference methods for the ash cloud identification. In the light of the introduction above, some case studies at Eyjafjallajökull 2010 (Iceland), Etna (Italy) and Calbuco (Cile), on 5-10 May 2010, 23rd Nov., 2013 and 23 Apr., 2015, respectively, are analysed in terms of source parameter estimates (manly the cloud top and mass flax rate) from ground based microwave weather radar (9.6 GHz) and satellite Low Earth Orbit microwave radiometers (50 - 183 GH). A special highlight will be given to the advantages and limitations of microwave-related products with respect to more conventional tools.

Database for earthquake strong motion studies in Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scasserra, G.; Stewart, J.P.; Kayen, R.E.; Lanzo, G.

2009-01-01

We describe an Italian database of strong ground motion recordings and databanks delineating conditions at the instrument sites and characteristics of the seismic sources. The strong motion database consists of 247 corrected recordings from 89 earthquakes and 101 recording stations. Uncorrected recordings were drawn from public web sites and processed on a record-by-record basis using a procedure utilized in the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA) project to remove instrument resonances, minimize noise effects through low- and high-pass filtering, and baseline correction. The number of available uncorrected recordings was reduced by 52% (mostly because of s-triggers) to arrive at the 247 recordings in the database. The site databank includes for every recording site the surface geology, a measurement or estimate of average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m (Vs30), and information on instrument housing. Of the 89 sites, 39 have on-site velocity measurements (17 of which were performed as part of this study using SASW techniques). For remaining sites, we estimate Vs30 based on measurements on similar geologic conditions where available. Where no local velocity measurements are available, correlations with surface geology are used. Source parameters are drawn from databanks maintained (and recently updated) by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and include hypocenter location and magnitude for small events (M< ??? 5.5) and finite source parameters for larger events. ?? 2009 A.S. Elnashai & N.N. Ambraseys.

Acoustic emission source localization based on distance domain signal representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gawronski, M.; Grabowski, K.; Russek, P.; Staszewski, W. J.; Uhl, T.; Packo, P.

2016-04-01

Acoustic emission is a vital non-destructive testing technique and is widely used in industry for damage detection, localisation and characterization. The latter two aspects are particularly challenging, as AE data are typically noisy. What is more, elastic waves generated by an AE event, propagate through a structural path and are significantly distorted. This effect is particularly prominent for thin elastic plates. In these media the dispersion phenomenon results in severe localisation and characterization issues. Traditional Time Difference of Arrival methods for localisation techniques typically fail when signals are highly dispersive. Hence, algorithms capable of dispersion compensation are sought. This paper presents a method based on the Time - Distance Domain Transform for an accurate AE event localisation. The source localisation is found through a minimization problem. The proposed technique focuses on transforming the time signal to the distance domain response, which would be recorded at the source. Only, basic elastic material properties and plate thickness are used in the approach, avoiding arbitrary parameters tuning.

Influence of lithostatic stress on earthquake stress drops in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; McNamara, Daniel E.; Hartzell, Stephen; Choy, George

2017-01-01

We estimate stress drops for earthquakes in and near the continental United States using the method of spectral ratios. The ratio of acceleration spectra between collocated earthquakes recorded at a given station removes the effects of path and recording site and yields source parameters including corner frequency for, and the ratio of seismic moment between, the two earthquakes. We determine stress drop from these parameters for 1121 earthquakes greater than M∼3 in 60 earthquake clusters. We find that the average Brune stress drop for the few eastern United States (EUS) tectonic mainshocks studied (2.6–36 MPa) is about three times greater than that of tectonic mainshocks in the western United States (WUS, 1.0–7.9 MPa) and five times greater than mainshocks potentially induced by wastewater injection in the central United States (CUS, 0.6–5.6 MPa). EUS events tend to be deeper thrusting events, whereas WUS events tend to be shallower but have a wide range of focal mechanisms. CUS events tend to be shallow with strike‐slip to normal‐faulting mechanisms. With the possible exception of CUS aftershocks, we find that differences in stress drop among all events can be taken into account, within one standard deviation of significance, by differences in the shear failure stress as outlined by Mohr–Coulomb theory. The shear failure stress is a function of vertical stress (or depth), the fault style (normal, strike slip, or reverse), and coefficient of friction (estimated here to be, on average, 0.64). After accounting for faulting style and depth dependence, we find that the average Brune stress drop is about 3% of the failure stress. These results suggest that high‐frequency shaking hazard (>∼1  Hz) from shallow induced events and aftershocks is reduced to some extent by lower stress drop. However, the shallow hypocenters will increase hazard within several kilometers of the source.

Understanding DOC Mobilization Dynamics Through High Frequency Measurements in a Headwater Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, B.; Musolff, A.; Lechtenfeld, O.; de Rooij, G. H.; Fleckenstein, J. H.

2017-12-01

Increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports from headwater catchments impact the quality of downstream waters and pose challenges to water supply. The importance of riparian zones for DOC export from catchments in humid, temperate climates has generally been acknowledged, but the hydrological controls and biogeochemical factors that govern mobilization of DOC from riparian zones remain elusive. By analyzing high-frequency time series of UV-VIS based water quality we therefore aim at a better understanding on temporal dynamics of DOC mobilization and exports. In a first step a one year high frequency (15 minutes) data set from a headwater catchment in the Harz Mountains (Germany) was systematically analyzed for event-based patterns in DOC concentrations. Here, a simplistic linear model was generated to explain DOC concentration level and variability in the stream. Furthermore, spectral (e.g. slopes and SUVA254) and molecular (FT-ICR-MS) characterization of DOC was used to fingerprint in-stream DOC during events. Continuous DOC concentrations were best predicted (R², NSE = 0.53) by instantaneous discharge (Q) and antecede wetness conditions of the last 30 days (AWC30 = Precip.30/PET30) as well as mean air temperature (Tmean30) and mean discharge (Qmean30) of the preceding 30 days. Analyses of 36 events revealed seasonal trends for the slope, intercept and R² of linear log(DOC)-log(Q) regressions that can be best explained by the mean air temperature of the preceding 15 days. Continuously available optical DOC quality parameters SUVA254 and spectral slope (275 nm - 295 nm) systematically changed with shifts in discharge and in DOC concentration. This is underlined by selected FT-ICR-MS measurements indicating higher DOC aromaticity and oxygen content at high flow conditions. The change of DOC quality parameters during events indicate a shift in the activated source zones: DOC with a different quality was mobilized during high flow conditions when higher groundwater levels connected formerly disconnected DOC source zones to the stream. We conclude that the high concentration variability of DOC can be explained by a few controlling variables only. These variables can be linked to event-based DOC source activation and more seasonal controls of DOC production.

Dynamics of the Oso-Steelhead landslide from broadband seismic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekström, G.

2015-06-01

We carry out a combined analysis of the short- and long-period seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014. The seismic records show that the Oso-Steelhead landslide was not a single slope failure, but a succession of multiple failures distinguished by two major collapses that occurred approximately 3 min apart. The first generated long-period surface waves that were recorded at several proximal stations. We invert these long-period signals for the forces acting at the source, and obtain estimates of the first failure runout and kinematics, as well as its mass after calibration against the mass-centre displacement estimated from remote-sensing imagery. Short-period analysis of both events suggests that the source dynamics of the second event is more complex than the first. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, by comparing the seismic energy of the short-period waves generated by both events we are able to estimate the volume of the second. Our analysis suggests that the volume of the second failure is about 15-30% of the total landslide volume, giving a total volume mobilized by the two events between 7 × 106 and 10 × 106 m3, in agreement with estimates from ground observations and lidar mapping.

Music 4C, a multi-voiced synthesis program with instruments defined in C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauchamp, James W.

2003-04-01

Music 4C is a program which runs under Unix (including Linux) and provides a means for the synthesis of arbitrary signals as defined by the C code. The program is actually a loose translation of an earlier program, Music 4BF [H. S. Howe, Jr., Electronic Music Synthesis (Norton, 1975)]. A set of instrument definitions are driven by a numerical score which consists of a series of ``events.'' Each event gives an instrument name, start time and duration, and a number of parameters (e.g., pitch) which describe the event. Each instrument definition consists of event parameters, performance variables, initializations, and a synthesis algorithmic code. Thus, the synthetic signal, no matter how complex, is precisely defined. Moreover, the resulting sounds can be overlaid in any arbitrary pattern. The program serves as a mixer of algorithmically produced sounds or recorded sounds taken from sample files or synthesized from spectrum files. A score file can be entered by hand, generated from a program, translated from a MIDI file, or generated from an alpha-numeric score using an auxiliary program, Notepro. Output sample files are in wav, snd, or aiff format. The program is provided in the C source code for download.

Monte Carlo Model Insights into the Lunar Sodium Exosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurley, Dana M.; Killen, R. M.; Sarantos, M.

2012-01-01

Sodium in the lunar exosphere is released from the lunar regolith by several mechanisms. These mechanisms include photon stimulated desorption (PSD), impact vaporization, electron stimulated desorption, and ion sputtering. Usually, PSD dominates; however, transient events can temporarily enhance other release mechanisms so that they are dominant. Examples of transient events include meteor showers and coronal mass ejections. The interaction between sodium and the regolith is important in determining the density and spatial distribution of sodium in the lunar exosphere. The temperature at which sodium sticks to the surface is one factor. In addition, the amount of thermal accommodation during the encounter between the sodium atom and the surface affects the exospheric distribution. Finally, the fraction of particles that are stuck when the surface is cold that are rereleased when the surface warms up also affects the exospheric density. In [1], we showed the "ambient" sodium exosphere from Monte Carlo modeling with a fixed source rate and fixed surface interaction parameters. We compared the enhancement when a CME passes the Moon to the ambient conditions. Here, we compare model results to data in order to determine the source rates and surface interaction parameters that provide the best fit of the model to the data.

Hypocenter relocation of microseismic events using a 3-D velocity model of the shale-gas production site in the Horn River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, J. U.; Kim, J. H.; Rhie, J.; Kang, T. S.

2016-12-01

Microseismic monitoring is a crucial process to evaluate the efficiency of hydro-fracking and to understand the development of fracture networks. Consequently, it can provide valuable information for designing the post hydro-fracking stages and estimating the stimulated rock volumes. The fundamental information is a set of source parameters of microseismic events. The most important parameter is the hypocenter of event, and thus the accurate hypocenter determination is a key for the successful microseismic monitoring. The accuracy of hypocenters for a given dataset of seismic phase arrival times is dependent on that of the velocity model used in the seismic analysis. In this study, we evaluated how a 3-D model can affect the accuracy of hypocenters. We used auto-picked P- and S-wave travel-time data of about 8,000 events at the commercial shale gas production site in the Horn River Basin, Canada. The initial hypocenters of the events were determined using a single-difference linear inversion algorithm with a 1-D velocity model obtained from the well-logging data. Then we iteratively inverted travel times of events for the 3-D velocity perturbations and relocated their hypocenters using double-difference algorithm. Significant reduction of the errors in the final hypocenter was obtained. This result indicates that the 3-D model is useful for improving the performance of microseismic monitoring.

A catalog of coseismic uniform-slip models of geodetically unstudied earthquakes along the Sumatran plate boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, N. Z.; Feng, L.; Hill, E.

2017-12-01

The Sumatran plate boundary has experienced five Mw > 8 great earthquakes, a handful of Mw 7-8 earthquakes and numerous small to moderate events since the 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. The geodetic studies of these moderate earthquakes have mostly been passed over in favour of larger events. We therefore in this study present a catalog of coseismic uniform-slip models of one Mw 7.2 earthquake and 17 Mw 5.9-6.9 events that have mostly gone geodetically unstudied. These events occurred close to various continuous stations within the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), allowing the network to record their surface deformation. However, due to their relatively small magnitudes, most of these moderate earthquakes were recorded by only 1-4 GPS stations. With the limited observations per event, we first constrain most of the model parameters (e.g. location, slip, patch size, strike, dip, rake) using various external sources (e.g., the ANSS catalog, gCMT, Slab1.0, and empirical relationships). We then use grid-search forward models to explore a range of some of these parameters (geographic position for all events and additionally depth for some events). Our results indicate the gCMT centroid locations in the Sumatran subduction zone might be biased towards the west for smaller events, while ANSS epicentres might be biased towards the east. The more accurate locations of these events are potentially useful in understanding the nature of various structures along the megathrust, particularly the persistent rupture barriers.

Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

2018-06-01

Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections. Although, the scaling can be improved further with the integration of large dataset of microearthquakes and use of a stable and robust approach.

Moment tensor inversion with three-dimensional sensor configuration of mining induced seismicity (Kiruna mine, Sweden)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ju; Dineva, Savka; Cesca, Simone; Heimann, Sebastian

2018-06-01

Mining induced seismicity is an undesired consequence of mining operations, which poses significant hazard to miners and infrastructures and requires an accurate analysis of the rupture process. Seismic moment tensors of mining-induced events help to understand the nature of mining-induced seismicity by providing information about the relationship between the mining, stress redistribution and instabilities in the rock mass. In this work, we adapt and test a waveform-based inversion method on high frequency data recorded by a dense underground seismic system in one of the largest underground mines in the world (Kiruna mine, Sweden). A stable algorithm for moment tensor inversion for comparatively small mining induced earthquakes, resolving both the double-couple and full moment tensor with high frequency data, is very challenging. Moreover, the application to underground mining system requires accounting for the 3-D geometry of the monitoring system. We construct a Green's function database using a homogeneous velocity model, but assuming a 3-D distribution of potential sources and receivers. We first perform a set of moment tensor inversions using synthetic data to test the effects of different factors on moment tensor inversion stability and source parameters accuracy, including the network spatial coverage, the number of sensors and the signal-to-noise ratio. The influence of the accuracy of the input source parameters on the inversion results is also tested. Those tests show that an accurate selection of the inversion parameters allows resolving the moment tensor also in the presence of realistic seismic noise conditions. Finally, the moment tensor inversion methodology is applied to eight events chosen from mining block #33/34 at Kiruna mine. Source parameters including scalar moment, magnitude, double-couple, compensated linear vector dipole and isotropic contributions as well as the strike, dip and rake configurations of the double-couple term were obtained. The orientations of the nodal planes of the double-couple component in most cases vary from NNW to NNE with a dip along the ore body or in the opposite direction.

Moment Tensor Inversion with 3D sensor configuration of Mining Induced Seismicity (Kiruna mine, Sweden)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ju; Dineva, Savka; Cesca, Simone; Heimann, Sebastian

2018-03-01

Mining induced seismicity is an undesired consequence of mining operations, which poses significant hazard to miners and infrastructures and requires an accurate analysis of the rupture process. Seismic moment tensors of mining-induced events help to understand the nature of mining-induced seismicity by providing information about the relationship between the mining, stress redistribution and instabilities in the rock mass. In this work, we adapt and test a waveform-based inversion method on high frequency data recorded by a dense underground seismic system in one of the largest underground mines in the world (Kiruna mine, Sweden). Stable algorithm for moment tensor inversion for comparatively small mining induced earthquakes, resolving both the double couple and full moment tensor with high frequency data is very challenging. Moreover, the application to underground mining system requires accounting for the 3D geometry of the monitoring system. We construct a Green's function database using a homogeneous velocity model, but assuming a 3D distribution of potential sources and receivers. We first perform a set of moment tensor inversions using synthetic data to test the effects of different factors on moment tensor inversion stability and source parameters accuracy, including the network spatial coverage, the number of sensors and the signal-to-noise ratio. The influence of the accuracy of the input source parameters on the inversion results is also tested. Those tests show that an accurate selection of the inversion parameters allows resolving the moment tensor also in presence of realistic seismic noise conditions. Finally, the moment tensor inversion methodology is applied to 8 events chosen from mining block #33/34 at Kiruna mine. Source parameters including scalar moment, magnitude, double couple, compensated linear vector dipole and isotropic contributions as well as the strike, dip, rake configurations of the double couple term were obtained. The orientations of the nodal planes of the double-couple component in most cases vary from NNW to NNE with a dip along the ore body or in the opposite direction.

Effects of Contaminated Site Age on Dissolution Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawitz, J. W.

2004-12-01

This work presents a streamtube-based analytical approach to evaluate reduction in groundwater contaminant flux resulting from partial mass reduction in a nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zone. The reduction in contaminant flux, Rj, discharged from the source zone is a remediation performance metric that has a direct effect on the fundamental drivers of remediation: protection of human health risks and the environment. Spatial variability is described within a Lagrangian framework where aquifer hydrodynamic heterogeneities are characterized using nonreactive travel time distributions, while NAPL spatial distribution heterogeneity can be similarly described using reactive travel time distributions. The combined statistics of these distributions are used to evaluate the relationship between reduction in contaminant mass, Rm, and Rj. A portion of the contaminant mass in the source zone is assumed to be removed via in-situ flushing remediation, with the initial and final conditions defined as steady-state natural-gradient groundwater flow through the contaminant source zone. The combined effect of aquifer and NAPL heterogeneities are shown to be captured in a single parameter, reactive travel time variability, that was determined to be the most important factor controlling the relationship between Rm and Rj. Increased values of the following parameters are shown to result in more favorable contaminant elution dynamics (i.e., greater flux reduction for a given reduction in mass): aquifer hydrodynamic heterogeneity, NAPL source zone heterogeneity, positive correlation between travel time and NAPL content, and time since the contamination event. Less favorable elution behavior is shown to result from negative correlations between travel time and NAPL content and rate-limited dissolution. The specific emphasis of this presentation is on the effects of the length of time that has elapsed since the contamination event (site age) on the dissolution dynamics.

Repeated Earthquakes in the Vrancea Subcrustal Source and Source Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Borleasnu, Felix; Radulian, Mircea

2017-12-01

The Vrancea seismic nest, located at the South-Eastern Carpathians Arc bend, in Romania, is a well-confined cluster of seismicity at intermediate depth (60 - 180 km). During the last 100 years four major shocks were recorded in the lithosphere body descending almost vertically beneath the Vrancea region: 10 November 1940 (Mw 7.7, depth 150 km), 4 March 1977 (Mw 7.4, depth 94 km), 30 August 1986 (Mw 7.1, depth 131 km) and a double shock on 30 and 31 May 1990 (Mw 6.9, depth 91 km and Mw 6.4, depth 87 km, respectively). The probability of repeated earthquakes in the Vrancea seismogenic volume is relatively large taking into account the high density of foci. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate source parameters and clustering properties for the repetitive earthquakes (located close each other) recorded in the Vrancea seismogenic subcrustal region. To this aim, we selected a set of earthquakes as templates for different co-located groups of events covering the entire depth range of active seismicity. For the identified clusters of repetitive earthquakes, we applied spectral ratios technique and empirical Green’s function deconvolution, in order to constrain as much as possible source parameters. Seismicity patterns of repeated earthquakes in space, time and size are investigated in order to detect potential interconnections with larger events. Specific scaling properties are analyzed as well. The present analysis represents a first attempt to provide a strategy for detecting and monitoring possible interconnections between different nodes of seismic activity and their role in modelling tectonic processes responsible for generating the major earthquakes in the Vrancea subcrustal seismogenic source.

Oscillation of a Shallow Hydrothermal Fissure Inferred from Long-Period Seismic Events at Taal Volcano, the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, Y.; Kumagai, H.; Lacson, R.; Figueroa, M. S.; Yamashina, T.

2012-12-01

We installed a multi-parameter monitoring network including five broadband seismometers at Taal volcano, the Philippines, where a high risk of near-future eruption is expected. The network detected more than 40,000 long-period (LP) seismic events which have a peak frequency of 0.8 Hz and a Q value of 6. Most of the events occurred in a 2-month-long swarm period of ~600 events/day. Our travel time analysis pointed to a shallow source (100-200 m) beneath the northeastern flank of the active volcanic island. To determine the source mechanism of the LP events, we performed waveform inversion. We first fixed the source location to that obtained by the travel time analysis, and performed inversion using waveforms with and without site amplification corrections and assuming four simple source geometries (a vertical crack, a horizontal crack, a vertical pipe, and a sphere). We obtained the minimum AIC value for the vertical crack source geometry using the corrected waveforms. We next performed a grid search for dip, azimuth, and the location of the tensile crack source using the corrected waveforms. We obtained small residuals for crack dips between 30 and 60 degrees at similar locations to that of the travel time analysis. We used the fluid-filled crack model to interpret the observed complex frequencies of the events. The observed waveforms of the events show a small Q value (= 6), which may be explained by bubbly basalt, bubbly water, or gas. However, since the source location is estimated to be shallow (100-200 m) and we have no evidence for an ascent of magma to such a shallow depth in the swarm period, bubbly basalt seems to be unrealistic. It seems difficult to maintain bubbly water in the inclined crack. For bubbly water, a peak frequency variation is expected to occur due to a variation of the bubble content, whereas the observed peak frequencies of the events are almost constant. The constant frequency is more easily realized by gas in a crack. We therefore examine H2O gas (vapor) for simplicity. We calculated far-field waveforms generated by an oscillation of a crack containing vapor, and applied the Sompi method to estimate Q and nondimensional frequency. The estimated Q of a fundamental longitudinal mode oscillation was similar to the observation. We obtained a reasonable crack size (188 m) from a comparison of the observed peak frequency (0.8 Hz) with the calculated nondimensional frequency of the mode. In the swarm period of the LP events, other anomalies such as large volcano deformation and significant increase of gas emission from the main crater were not observed. This feature and the crack model result above suggest an active and localized vapor supply from magma at depth to the LP source. Such a localized supply may be realized by a transportation of vapor through a fissure. If we assume that the estimated crack volume (10^2 m^3) corresponds to vapor supplied to the LP source for each event, the total vapor mass supplied throughout the swarm period is ~10^7 kg. If we assume that this amount of vapor was originated by degassing from the magma and transported to the LP source through the fissure, we can estimate a magma volume of ~10^6 m^3. We thus suggest that the LP events at Taal were triggered by degassing and transportation of vapor from a deep magma to a shallow depth through a fissure.

An Open-Source Arduino-based Controller for Mechanical Rain Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantilina, K. K.

2017-12-01

Many commercial rain simulators currently used in hydrology rely on inflexible and outdated controller designs. These analog controllers typically only allow a handful of discrete parameter options, and do not support internal timing functions or continuously-changing parameters. A desire for finer control of rain simulation events necessitated the design and construction of a microcontroller-based controller, using widely available off-the-shelf components. A menu driven interface allows users to fine-tune simulation parameters without the need for training or experience with microcontrollers, and the accessibility of the Arduino IDE allows users with a minimum of programming and hardware experience to modify the controller program to suit the needs of individual experiments.

Detection, location, and characterization of hydroacoustic signals using seafloor cable networks offshore Japan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugioka, H.; Suyehiro, K.; Shinohara, M.

2009-12-01

The hydroacoustic monitoring by the International Monitoring System (IMS) for Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Treaty (CTBT) verification system utilize hydrophone stations and seismic stations called T-phase stations for worldwide detection. Some signals of natural origin include those from earthquakes, submarine volcanic eruptions, or whale calls. Among artificial sources there are non-nuclear explosions and air-gun shots. It is important for IMS system to detect and locate hydroacoustic events with sufficient accuracy and correctly characterize the signals and identify the source. As there are a number of seafloor cable networks operated offshore Japanese islands basically facing the Pacific Ocean for monitoring regional seismicity, the data from these stations (pressures, hydrophones and seismic sensors) may be utilized to verify and increase the capability of the IMS. We use these data to compare some selected event parameters with those by Pacific in the time period of 2004-present. These anomalous examples and also dynamite shots used for seismic crustal structure studies and other natural sources will be presented in order to help improve the IMS verification capabilities for detection, location and characterization of anomalous signals. The seafloor cable networks composed of three hydrophones and six seismometers and a temporal dense seismic array detected and located hydroacoustic events offshore Japanese island on 12th of March in 2008, which had been reported by the IMS. We detected not only the reverberated hydroacoustic waves between the sea surface and the sea bottom but also the seismic waves going through the crust associated with the events. The determined source of the seismic waves is almost coincident with the one of hydroacoustic waves, suggesting that the seismic waves are converted very close to the origin of the hydroacoustic source. We also detected very similar signals on 16th of March in 2009 to the ones associated with the event of 12th of March in 2008.

Deriving Geomechanical Constraints from Microseismic Monitoring Demonstrated with Data from the Decatur CO2 Sequestration Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goertz-Allmann, B. P.; Oye, V.

2015-12-01

The occurrence of induced and triggered microseismicity is of increasing concern to the general public. The underlying human causes are numerous and include hydrocarbon production and geological storage of CO2. The concerns of induced seismicity are the potential hazards from large seismic events and the creation of fluid pathways. However, microseismicity is also a unique tool to gather information about real-time changes in the subsurface, a fact generally ignored by the public. The ability to detect, locate and characterize microseismic events, provides a snapshot of the stress conditions within and around a geological reservoir. In addition, data on rapid stress changes (i.e. microseismic events) can be used as input to hydro-mechanical models, often used to map fluid propagation. In this study we investigate the impact of microseismic event location accuracy using surface seismic stations in addition to downhole geophones. Due to signal-to-noise conditions and the small magnitudes inherent in microseismicity, downhole systems detect significantly more events with better precision of phase arrival times than surface networks. However, downhole systems are often limited in their ability to obtain large enough observational apertures required for accurate locations. We therefore jointly locate the largest microseismic events using surface and downhole data. This requires careful evaluation in the weighting of input data when inverting for the event location. For the smaller events only observed on the downhole geophones, we define event clusters using waveform cross-correlation methods. We apply this methodology to microseismic data collected in the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. A previous study revealed over 10,000 events detected by the downhole sensors. In our analysis, we include up to 12 surface sensors, installed by the USGS. The weighting scheme for this assembly of data needs to take into account significant uncertainties in the near-surface velocity structure. The re-located event clusters allow an investigation of systematic spatio-temporal variations of source parameters (e.g. stress drop) and statistical parameters (e.g. b-value). We examine these observations together with injection parameters to deduce constraints on the long-term stability of the injection site.

Studying Regional Wave Source Time Functions Using the Empirical Green's Function Method: Application to Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, J.; Schaff, D. P.; Chen, Y.; Schult, F.

2013-12-01

Reliably estimated source time functions (STFs) from high-frequency regional waveforms, such as Lg, Pn and Pg, provide important input for seismic source studies, explosion detection and discrimination, and minimization of parameter trade-off in attenuation studies. We have searched for candidate pairs of larger and small earthquakes in and around China that share the same focal mechanism but significantly differ in magnitudes, so that the empirical Green's function (EGF) method can be applied to study the STFs of the larger events. We conducted about a million deconvolutions using waveforms from 925 earthquakes, and screened the deconvolved traces to exclude those that are from event pairs that involved different mechanisms. Only 2,700 traces passed this screening and could be further analyzed using the EGF method. We have developed a series of codes for speeding up the final EGF analysis by implementing automations and user-graphic interface procedures. The codes have been fully tested with a subset of screened data and we are currently applying them to all the screened data. We will present a large number of deconvolved STFs retrieved using various phases (Lg, Pn, Sn and Pg and coda) with information on any directivities, any possible dependence of pulse durations on the wave types, on scaling relations for the pulse durations and event sizes, and on the estimated source static stress drops.

Estimating the Effective System Dead Time Parameter for Correlated Neutron Counting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Croft, Stephen; Cleveland, Steve; Favalli, Andrea

We present that neutron time correlation analysis is one of the main technical nuclear safeguards techniques used to verify declarations of, or to independently assay, special nuclear materials. Quantitative information is generally extracted from the neutron-event pulse train, collected from moderated assemblies of 3He proportional counters, in the form of correlated count rates that are derived from event-triggered coincidence gates. These count rates, most commonly referred to as singles, doubles and triples rates etc., when extracted using shift-register autocorrelation logic, are related to the reduced factorial moments of the time correlated clusters of neutrons emerging from the measurement items. Correctingmore » these various rates for dead time losses has received considerable attention recently. The dead time losses for the higher moments in particular, and especially for large mass (high rate and highly multiplying) items, can be significant. Consequently, even in thoughtfully designed systems, accurate dead time treatments are needed if biased mass determinations are to be avoided. In support of this effort, in this paper we discuss a new approach to experimentally estimate the effective system dead time of neutron coincidence counting systems. It involves counting a random neutron source (e.g. AmLi is a good approximation to a source without correlated emission) and relating the second and higher moments of the neutron number distribution recorded in random triggered interrogation coincidence gates to the effective value of dead time parameter. We develop the theoretical basis of the method and apply it to the Oak Ridge Large Volume Active Well Coincidence Counter using sealed AmLi radionuclide neutron sources and standard multiplicity shift register electronics. The method is simple to apply compared to the predominant present approach which involves using a set of 252Cf sources of wide emission rate, it gives excellent precision in a conveniently short time, and it yields consistent results as a function of the order of the moment used to extract the dead time parameter. In addition, this latter observation is reassuring in that it suggests the assumptions underpinning the theoretical analysis are fit for practical application purposes. However, we found that the effective dead time parameter obtained is not constant, as might be expected for a parameter that in the dead time model is characteristic of the detector system, but rather, varies systematically with gate width.« less

Estimating the Effective System Dead Time Parameter for Correlated Neutron Counting

DOE PAGES

Croft, Stephen; Cleveland, Steve; Favalli, Andrea; ...

2017-04-29

We present that neutron time correlation analysis is one of the main technical nuclear safeguards techniques used to verify declarations of, or to independently assay, special nuclear materials. Quantitative information is generally extracted from the neutron-event pulse train, collected from moderated assemblies of 3He proportional counters, in the form of correlated count rates that are derived from event-triggered coincidence gates. These count rates, most commonly referred to as singles, doubles and triples rates etc., when extracted using shift-register autocorrelation logic, are related to the reduced factorial moments of the time correlated clusters of neutrons emerging from the measurement items. Correctingmore » these various rates for dead time losses has received considerable attention recently. The dead time losses for the higher moments in particular, and especially for large mass (high rate and highly multiplying) items, can be significant. Consequently, even in thoughtfully designed systems, accurate dead time treatments are needed if biased mass determinations are to be avoided. In support of this effort, in this paper we discuss a new approach to experimentally estimate the effective system dead time of neutron coincidence counting systems. It involves counting a random neutron source (e.g. AmLi is a good approximation to a source without correlated emission) and relating the second and higher moments of the neutron number distribution recorded in random triggered interrogation coincidence gates to the effective value of dead time parameter. We develop the theoretical basis of the method and apply it to the Oak Ridge Large Volume Active Well Coincidence Counter using sealed AmLi radionuclide neutron sources and standard multiplicity shift register electronics. The method is simple to apply compared to the predominant present approach which involves using a set of 252Cf sources of wide emission rate, it gives excellent precision in a conveniently short time, and it yields consistent results as a function of the order of the moment used to extract the dead time parameter. In addition, this latter observation is reassuring in that it suggests the assumptions underpinning the theoretical analysis are fit for practical application purposes. However, we found that the effective dead time parameter obtained is not constant, as might be expected for a parameter that in the dead time model is characteristic of the detector system, but rather, varies systematically with gate width.« less

Estimating the effective system dead time parameter for correlated neutron counting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, Stephen; Cleveland, Steve; Favalli, Andrea; McElroy, Robert D.; Simone, Angela T.

2017-11-01

Neutron time correlation analysis is one of the main technical nuclear safeguards techniques used to verify declarations of, or to independently assay, special nuclear materials. Quantitative information is generally extracted from the neutron-event pulse train, collected from moderated assemblies of 3He proportional counters, in the form of correlated count rates that are derived from event-triggered coincidence gates. These count rates, most commonly referred to as singles, doubles and triples rates etc., when extracted using shift-register autocorrelation logic, are related to the reduced factorial moments of the time correlated clusters of neutrons emerging from the measurement items. Correcting these various rates for dead time losses has received considerable attention recently. The dead time losses for the higher moments in particular, and especially for large mass (high rate and highly multiplying) items, can be significant. Consequently, even in thoughtfully designed systems, accurate dead time treatments are needed if biased mass determinations are to be avoided. In support of this effort, in this paper we discuss a new approach to experimentally estimate the effective system dead time of neutron coincidence counting systems. It involves counting a random neutron source (e.g. AmLi is a good approximation to a source without correlated emission) and relating the second and higher moments of the neutron number distribution recorded in random triggered interrogation coincidence gates to the effective value of dead time parameter. We develop the theoretical basis of the method and apply it to the Oak Ridge Large Volume Active Well Coincidence Counter using sealed AmLi radionuclide neutron sources and standard multiplicity shift register electronics. The method is simple to apply compared to the predominant present approach which involves using a set of 252Cf sources of wide emission rate, it gives excellent precision in a conveniently short time, and it yields consistent results as a function of the order of the moment used to extract the dead time parameter. This latter observation is reassuring in that it suggests the assumptions underpinning the theoretical analysis are fit for practical application purposes. However, we found that the effective dead time parameter obtained is not constant, as might be expected for a parameter that in the dead time model is characteristic of the detector system, but rather, varies systematically with gate width.

Investigating Along-Strike Variations of Source Parameters for Relocated Thrust Earthquakes Along the Sumatra-Java Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hariri, M.; Bilek, S. L.; Deshon, H. R.; Engdahl, E. R.

2009-12-01

Some earthquakes generate anomalously large tsunami waves relative to their surface wave magnitudes (Ms). This class of events, known as tsunami earthquakes, is characterized by having a long rupture duration and low radiated energy at long periods. These earthquakes are relatively rare. There have been only 9 documented cases, including 2 in the Java subduction zone (1994 Mw=7.8 and the 2006 Mw=7.7). Several models have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly large tsunami, such as displacement along high-angle splay faults, landslide-induced tsunami due to coseismic shaking, or large seismic slip within low rigidity sediments or weaker material along the shallowest part of the subduction zone. Slow slip has also been suggested along portions of the 2004 Mw=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake zone. In this study we compute the source parameters of 90 relocated shallow thrust events (Mw 5.1-7.8) along the Sumatra-Java subduction zone including the two Java tsunami earthquakes. Events are relocated using a modification to the Engdahl, van der Hilst and Buland (EHB) earthquake relocation method that incorporates an automated frequency-dependent phase detector. This allows for the use of increased numbers of phase arrival times, especially depth phases, and improves hypocentral locations. Source time functions, rupture duration and depth estimates are determined using multi-station deconvolution of broadband teleseismic P and SH waves. We seek to correlate any along-strike variation in rupture characteristics with tectonic features and rupture characteristics of the previous slow earthquakes along this margin to gain a better understanding of the conditions resulting in slow ruptures. Preliminary results from the analysis of these events show that in addition to depth-dependent variations there are also along-strike variations in rupture duration. We find that along the Java segment, the longer duration event locates in a highly coupled region corresponding to the location of a proposed subducting seamount. This correlation is less clear along the southern Sumatran segment. One longer duration event is located within the high slip area of the Mw=8.4 2007 rupture, while another is located in the weakly coupled region of the 1935 Mw=7.7 rupture area.

Evaluation of W Phase CMT Based PTWC Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Model Using DART Observations: Events of the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Duputel, Z.; Rivera, L. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Bouchard, R. H.; Mungov, G.

2017-12-01

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) began forecasting tsunamis in real-time using source parameters derived from real-time Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions in 2009. Both the USGS and PTWC typically obtain W-Phase CMT solutions for large earthquakes less than 30 minutes after earthquake origin time. Within seconds, and often before waves reach the nearest deep ocean bottom pressure sensor (DARTs), PTWC then generates a regional tsunami propagation forecast using its linear shallow water model. The model is initialized by the sea surface deformation that mimics the seafloor deformation based on Okada's (1985) dislocation model of a rectangular fault with a uniform slip. The fault length and width are empirical functions of the seismic moment. How well did this simple model perform? The DART records provide a very valuable dataset for model validation. We examine tsunami events of the last decade with earthquake magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 9.0 including some deep events for which tsunamis were not expected. Most of the forecast results were obtained during the events. We also include events from before the implementation of the WCMT method at USGS and PTWC, 2006-2009. For these events, WCMTs were computed retrospectively (Duputel et al. 2012). We also re-ran the model with a larger domain for some events to include far-field DARTs that recorded a tsunami with identical source parameters used during the events. We conclude that our model results, in terms of maximum wave amplitude, are mostly within a factor of two of the observed at DART stations, with an average error of less than 40% for most events, including the 2010 Maule and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. However, the simple fault model with a uniform slip is too simplistic for the Tohoku tsunami. We note model results are sensitive to centroid location and depth, especially if the earthquake is close to land or inland. For the 2016 M7.8 New Zealand earthquake the initial forecast underestimated the tsunami because the initial WCMT centroid was on land (the epicenter was inland but most of the slips occurred offshore). Later WCMTs did provide better forecast. The model also failed to reproduce the observed tsunamis from earthquake-generated landslides. Sea level observations during the events are crucial in determining whether or not a forecast needs to be adjusted.

Observing binary black hole ringdowns by advanced gravitational wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, Andrea; Kokkotas, Kostas D.; Laguna, Pablo

2017-05-01

The direct discovery of gravitational waves from compact binary systems leads for the first time to explore the possibility of black hole spectroscopy. Newly formed black holes produced by coalescing events are copious emitters of gravitational radiation, in the form of damped sinusoids, the quasinormal modes. The latter provides a precious source of information on the nature of gravity in the strong field regime, as they represent a powerful tool to investigate the validity of the no-hair theorem. In this work we perform a systematic study on the accuracy with which current and future interferometers will measure the fundamental parameters of ringdown events, such as frequencies and damping times. We analyze how these errors affect the estimate of the mass and the angular momentum of the final black hole, constraining the parameter space which will lead to the most precise measurements. We explore both single and multimode events, showing how the uncertainties evolve when multiple detectors are available. We also prove that, for the second generation of interferometers, a network of instruments is a crucial and necessary ingredient to perform strong-gravity tests of the no-hair theorem. Finally, we analyze the constraints that a third generation of detectors may be able to set on the mode's parameters, comparing the projected bounds against those obtained for current facilities.

A Bootstrap-Based Probabilistic Optimization Method to Explore and Efficiently Converge in Solution Spaces of Earthquake Source Parameter Estimation Problems: Application to Volcanic and Tectonic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahm, T.; Heimann, S.; Isken, M.; Vasyura-Bathke, H.; Kühn, D.; Sudhaus, H.; Kriegerowski, M.; Daout, S.; Steinberg, A.; Cesca, S.

2017-12-01

Seismic source and moment tensor waveform inversion is often ill-posed or non-unique if station coverage is poor or signals are weak. Therefore, the interpretation of moment tensors can become difficult, if not the full model space is explored, including all its trade-offs and uncertainties. This is especially true for non-double couple components of weak or shallow earthquakes, as for instance found in volcanic, geothermal or mining environments.We developed a bootstrap-based probabilistic optimization scheme (Grond), which is based on pre-calculated Greens function full waveform databases (e.g. fomosto tool, doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2017.001). Grond is able to efficiently explore the full model space, the trade-offs and the uncertainties of source parameters. The program is highly flexible with respect to the adaption to specific problems, the design of objective functions, and the diversity of empirical datasets.It uses an integrated, robust waveform data processing based on a newly developed Python toolbox for seismology (Pyrocko, see Heimann et al., 2017, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2017.001), and allows for visual inspection of many aspects of the optimization problem. Grond has been applied to the CMT moment tensor inversion using W-phases, to nuclear explosions in Korea, to meteorite atmospheric explosions, to volcano-tectonic events during caldera collapse and to intra-plate volcanic and tectonic crustal events.Grond can be used to optimize simultaneously seismological waveforms, amplitude spectra and static displacements of geodetic data as InSAR and GPS (e.g. KITE, Isken et al., 2017, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2017.002). We present examples of Grond optimizations to demonstrate the advantage of a full exploration of source parameter uncertainties for interpretation.

Probabilistic estimation of splitting coefficients of normal modes of the Earth, and their uncertainties, using an autoregressive technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachhai, S.; Masters, G.; Laske, G.

2017-12-01

Earth's normal-mode spectra are crucial to studying the long wavelength structure of the Earth. Such observations have been used extensively to estimate "splitting coefficients" which, in turn, can be used to determine the three-dimensional velocity and density structure. Most past studies apply a non-linear iterative inversion to estimate the splitting coefficients which requires that the earthquake source is known. However, it is challenging to know the source details, particularly for big events as used in normal-mode analyses. Additionally, the final solution of the non-linear inversion can depend on the choice of damping parameter and starting model. To circumvent the need to know the source, a two-step linear inversion has been developed and successfully applied to many mantle and core sensitive modes. The first step takes combinations of the data from a single event to produce spectra known as "receiver strips". The autoregressive nature of the receiver strips can then be used to estimate the structure coefficients without the need to know the source. Based on this approach, we recently employed a neighborhood algorithm to measure the splitting coefficients for an isolated inner-core sensitive mode (13S2). This approach explores the parameter space efficiently without any need of regularization and finds the structure coefficients which best fit the observed strips. Here, we implement a Bayesian approach to data collected for earthquakes from early 2000 and more recent. This approach combines the data (through likelihood) and prior information to provide rigorous parameter values and their uncertainties for both isolated and coupled modes. The likelihood function is derived from the inferred errors of the receiver strips which allows us to retrieve proper uncertainties. Finally, we apply model selection criteria that balance the trade-offs between fit (likelihood) and model complexity to investigate the degree and type of structure (elastic and anelastic) required to explain the data.

The Nustar Spectrum of Mrk 335: Extreme Relativistic Effects Within Two Gravitational Radii of the Event Horizon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, M. L.; Wilkins, D. R.; Fabian, A. C.; Grupe, D.; Dauser, T.; Matt, G.; Harrison, F. A.; Brenneman, L.; Boggs, S. E.; Christensen, F. E.;

Source Energy Spectrum of the 17 May 2012 GLE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Peraza, Jorge; Márquez-Adame, Juan C.; Miroshnichenko, Leonty; Velasco-Herrera, Victor

2018-05-01

Among the several GLEs (ground level enhancements) that have presumptuously occurred in the period 2012-2015, the 17 May 2012 is that which is more widely accepted to be a GLE, in view of the high number of high-latitude neutron monitor stations that have registered it. In spite of the small amplitude, it was more prominent of the predicted GLE's of the present decade (Pérez-Peraza & Juárez-Zuñiga, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/803/1/27). However, the lack of latitude effect makes it difficult to study the characteristics of this event in the high-energy extreme of the spectrum. Nevertheless, several outstanding works have been able to derive observational spectra at the top of the Earth atmosphere for this peculiar GLE. Some of these works find that the flow of protons is characterized by two components. Quite a great number of works have been published in relation with observational features obtained with different instrumentation, but the source phenomena, regarding the generation processes and source physical parameters, have not been scrutinized. The main goal of this work is to look at such aspects by means of the confrontation of the different approaches of the observational spectra with our analytical theoretical spectra based on stochastic acceleration and electric field acceleration from reconnection processes. In this way, we derive a set of parameters which characterize the sources of these two GLE components, leading us to propose possible scenarios for the generation of particles in this particular GLE event.

Optimization of the Number and Location of Tsunami Stations in a Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Liu, P. L. F.; Pritchard, M. E.

2014-12-01

Optimizing the number and location of tsunami stations in designing a tsunami warning system is an important and practical problem. It is always desirable to maximize the capability of the data obtained from the stations for constraining the earthquake source parameters, and to minimize the number of stations at the same time. During the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event, 28 coastal gauges and DART buoys in the near-field recorded tsunami waves, providing an opportunity for assessing the effectiveness of those stations in identifying the earthquake source parameters. Assuming a single-plane fault geometry, inversions of tsunami data from combinations of various number (1~28) of stations and locations are conducted and evaluated their effectiveness according to the residues of the inverse method. Results show that the optimized locations of stations depend on the number of stations used. If the stations are optimally located, 2~4 stations are sufficient to constrain the source parameters. Regarding the optimized location, stations must be uniformly spread in all directions, which is not surprising. It is also found that stations within the source region generally give worse constraint of earthquake source than stations farther from source, which is due to the exaggeration of model error in matching large amplitude waves at near-source stations. Quantitative discussions on these findings will be given in the presentation. Applying similar analysis to the Manila Trench based on artificial scenarios of earthquakes and tsunamis, the optimal location of tsunami stations are obtained, which provides guidance of deploying a tsunami warning system in this region.

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage (FOD) Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turso, James; Lawrence, Charles; Litt, Jonathan

2004-01-01

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Reduced-Order Modeling and Wavelet Analysis of Turbofan Engine Structural Response Due to Foreign Object Damage "FOD" Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turso, James A.; Lawrence, Charles; Litt, Jonathan S.

2007-01-01

The development of a wavelet-based feature extraction technique specifically targeting FOD-event induced vibration signal changes in gas turbine engines is described. The technique performs wavelet analysis of accelerometer signals from specified locations on the engine and is shown to be robust in the presence of significant process and sensor noise. It is envisioned that the technique will be combined with Kalman filter thermal/ health parameter estimation for FOD-event detection via information fusion from these (and perhaps other) sources. Due to the lack of high-frequency FOD-event test data in the open literature, a reduced-order turbofan structural model (ROM) was synthesized from a finite-element model modal analysis to support the investigation. In addition to providing test data for algorithm development, the ROM is used to determine the optimal sensor location for FOD-event detection. In the presence of significant noise, precise location of the FOD event in time was obtained using the developed wavelet-based feature.

Microbial source tracking and transfer hydrodynamics in rural catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Sinead; Bhreathnach, Niamh; O'Flaherty, Vincent; Jordan, Philip; Wuertz, Stefan

2013-04-01

In Ireland, bacterial pathogens from continual point source pollution and intermittent pollution from diffuse sources can impact both drinking water supplies and recreational waters. This poses a serious public health threat. Observing and establishing the source of faecal pollution is imperative for the protection of water quality and human health. Traditional culture methods to detect such pollution via faecal indicator bacteria have been widely utilised but do not decipher the source of pollution. To combat this, microbial source tracking, an important emerging molecular tool, is applied to detect host-specific markers in faecally contaminated waters. The aim of this study is to target ruminant and human-specific faecal Bacteroidales and Bacteroides 16S rRNA genes within rural river catchments in Ireland and investigate hydrological transfer dependencies. During storm events and non-storm periods, 1L untreated water samples, taken every 2 hours over a 48-hour time period at the spring (Cregduff) or outlet (Dunleer), and large (5-20L) untreated water samples were collected from two catchment sites. Cregduff is a spring emergence under a grassland karst landscape in Co. Mayo (west coast of Ireland) and Dunleer is a mixed landuse over till soils in Co. Louth (east coast). From a risk assessment point of view, the catchments are very different. Samples were filtered through 0.2µm nitrocellulose filters to concentrate bacterial cells which then underwent chemical extraction of total nucleic acids. Animal and human stool samples were also collected from the catchments to determine assay sensitivity and specificity following nucleic acid extraction. Aquifer response to seasonal events was assessed by monitoring coliforms and E. coli occurrence using the IDEXX Colisure® Quanti Tray®/2000 system in conjunction with chemical and hydrological parameters. Autoanalysers deployed at each catchment monitor multiple water parameters every 10 min such as phosphorus, nitrogen (nitrate), turbidity, conductivity and flow rate. InStat V 3.06 was used to determine correlations between chemical and microbial parameters (P< 0.05 considered significant).There was a positive correlation between E. coli and phosphorus in Cregduff during rain events (p=0.040) & significant correlation for a non-rain periods (<0.001). There was a positive correlation between E. coli and turbidity in Dunleer during rain events (p=0.0008) and in Cregduff during non-rain periods (p=0.0241). The water samples from Dunleer have a higher concentration of phosphorus than in Cregduff. Host specific primers BacCow-UCD, BacHum-UCD, BacUni-UCD and BoBac were then assayed against both faecal and water extracts and quantified using PCR. BacUni-UCD, BacCow-UCD and BoBac detected faecal contamination in three of the four sample sites in Dunleer and BacHum-UCD detected faecal contamination in one of the sites. The concentrations of the BacUni-UCD qPCR assay were higher in the water samples taken from Dunleer outlet than those taken from Cregduff spring. BacCow-UCD and BacHum-UCD qPCR detected low and very low concentrations, respectively, in water from the Dunleer outlet. The concentrations can be seen changing over the hydrograph event. None of the host-specific assays detected pollution in Cregduff. From the results, it can be seen that Dunleer is more subject to contamination than Cregduff.

Sferic propagation perturbations caused by energetic particle events as seen in global lightning data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, T.; Holzworth, R. H., II; Brundell, J. B.

2017-12-01

Energetic particle precipitation associated with solar events have been known to cause changes in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Previous studies of solar proton events (SPEs) have shown that high-energy protons can ionize lower-altitude layers of the ionosphere, leading to changes in Schumann resonance parameters (Schlegel and Fullekrug, 1999) and absorption of radio waves over the polar cap (Kundu and Haddock, 1960). We use the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) to study propagation of VLF waves during SPEs. WWLLN detects lightning-generated sferics in the VLF band using 80 stations distributed around the world. By comparing received power at individual stations from specific lightning source regions during SPEs, we can infer changes in the lower ionosphere conductivity profile caused by high-energy proton precipitation. In particular, we find that some WWLLN stations see different distributions of sferic power and range during SPEs. We also use the power/propagation analysis to improve WWLLN's lightning detection accuracy, by developing a better model for ionosphere parameters and speed of light in the waveguide than we have previously used.

Numerical analysis of seismic events distributions on the planetary scale and celestial bodies astrometrical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulatova, Dr.

2012-04-01

Modern research in the domains of Earth sciences is developing from the descriptions of each individual natural phenomena to the systematic complex research in interdisciplinary areas. For studies of its kind in the form numerical analysis of three-dimensional (3D) systems, the author proposes space-time Technology (STT), based on a Ptolemaic geocentric system, consist of two modules, each with its own coordinate system: (1) - 3D model of a Earth, the coordinates of which provides databases of the Earth's events (here seismic), and (2) - a compact model of the relative motion of celestial bodies in space - time on Earth known as the "Method of a moving source" (MDS), which was developed in MDS (Bulatova, 1998-2000) for the 3D space. Module (2) was developed as a continuation of the geocentric Ptolemaic system of the world, built on the astronomical parameters heavenly bodies. Based on the aggregation data of Space and Earth Sciences, systematization, and cooperative analysis, this is an attempt to establish a cause-effect relationship between the position of celestial bodies (Moon, Sun) and Earth's seismic events.

A physics investigation of deadtime losses in neutron counting at low rates with Cf252

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Louise G; Croft, Stephen

2009-01-01

{sup 252}Cf spontaneous fission sources are used for the characterization of neutron counters and the determination of calibration parameters; including both neutron coincidence counting (NCC) and neutron multiplicity deadtime (DT) parameters. Even at low event rates, temporally-correlated neutron counting using {sup 252}Cf suffers a deadtime effect. Meaning that in contrast to counting a random neutron source (e.g. AmLi to a close approximation), DT losses do not vanish in the low rate limit. This is because neutrons are emitted from spontaneous fission events in time-correlated 'bursts', and are detected over a short period commensurate with their lifetime in the detector (characterizedmore » by the system die-away time, {tau}). Thus, even when detected neutron events from different spontaneous fissions are unlikely to overlap in time, neutron events within the detected 'burst' are subject to intrinsic DT losses. Intrinsic DT losses for dilute Pu will be lower since the multiplicity distribution is softer, but real items also experience self-multiplication which can increase the 'size' of the bursts. Traditional NCC DT correction methods do not include the intrinsic (within burst) losses. We have proposed new forms of the traditional NCC Singles and Doubles DT correction factors. In this work, we apply Monte Carlo neutron pulse train analysis to investigate the functional form of the deadtime correction factors for an updating deadtime. Modeling is based on a high efficiency {sup 3}He neutron counter with short die-away time, representing an ideal {sup 3}He based detection system. The physics of dead time losses at low rates is explored and presented. It is observed that new forms are applicable and offer more accurate correction than the traditional forms.« less

Earthquake source parameters determined using the SAFOD Pilot Hole vertical seismic array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imanishi, K.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Prejean, S. G.

2003-12-01

We determined source parameters of microearthquakes occurring at Parkfield, CA, using the SAFOD Pilot Hole vertical seismic array. The array consists of 32 stations with 3-component 15 Hz geophones at 40 meter spacing (856 to 2096 m depth) The site is about 1.8 km southwest of a segment of the San Andreas fault characterized by a combination of aseismic creep and repeating microearthquakes. We analyzed seismograms recorded at sample rates of 1kHz or 2kHz. Spectra have high signal-to-noise ratios at frequencies up to 300-400 Hz, showing these data include information on source processes of microearthquakes. By comparing spectra and waveforms at different levels of the array, we observe how attenuation and scattering in the shallow crust affect high-frequency waves. We estimated spectral level (Ω 0), corner frequency (fc) and path-averaged attenuation (Q) at each level of the array by fitting an omega squared model to displacement spectra. While the spectral level changes smoothly with depth, there is significant scatter in fc and Q due to the strong trade-off between these parameters. Because we expect source parameters to vary systematically with depth, we impose a smoothness constraint on Q, Ω 0 and fc as a function of depth. For some of the nearby events, take-off angles to the different levels of the array span a significant part of the focal sphere. Therefore corner frequencies should also change with depth. We smooth measurements using a linear first-difference operator that links Q, Ω 0 and fc at one level to the levels above and below, and use Akaike_fs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to weight the smoothing operators. We applied this approach to events with high signal-to-noise ratios. For the results with the minimum ABIC, fc does not scatter and Q decreases with decreasing depth. Seismic moments were determined by the spectral level and range from 109 and 1012 Nm. Source radii were estimated from the corner frequency using the circular crack model of Sato and Hirasawa (1973). Estimated values of static stress drop were roughly 1 MPa and do not vary with seismic moment. Q values from all earthquakes were averaged at each level of the array. Average Qp and Qs range from 250 to 350 and from 300 to 400 between the top and bottom of the array, respectively. Increasing Q values as a function of depth explain well the observed decrease in high-frequency content as waves propagate toward the surface. Thus, by jointly analyzing the entire vertical array we can both accurately determine source parameters of microearthquakes and make reliable Q estimates while suppressing the trade-off between fc and Q.

Trading Time with Space - Development of subduction zone parameter database for a maximum magnitude correlation assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-04-01

Subduction zones are generally the sources of the earthquakes with the highest magnitudes. Not only in Japan or Chile, but also in Pakistan, the Solomon Islands or for the Lesser Antilles, subduction zones pose a significant hazard for the people. To understand the behavior of subduction zones, especially to identify their capabilities to produce maximum magnitude earthquakes, various physical models have been developed leading to a large number of various datasets, e.g. from geodesy, geomagnetics, structural geology, etc. There have been various studies to utilize this data for the compilation of a subduction zone parameters database, but mostly concentrating on only the major zones. Here, we compile the largest dataset of subduction zone parameters both in parameter diversity but also in the number of considered subduction zones. In total, more than 70 individual sources have been assessed and the aforementioned parametric data have been combined with seismological data and many more sources have been compiled leading to more than 60 individual parameters. Not all parameters have been resolved for each zone, since the data completeness depends on the data availability and quality for each source. In addition, the 3D down-dip geometry of a majority of the subduction zones has been resolved using historical earthquake hypocenter data and centroid moment tensors where available and additionally compared and verified with results from previous studies. With such a database, a statistical study has been undertaken to identify not only correlations between those parameters to estimate a parametric driven way to identify potentials for maximum possible magnitudes, but also to identify similarities between the sources themselves. This identification of similarities leads to a classification system for subduction zones. Here, it could be expected if two sources share enough common characteristics, other characteristics of interest may be similar as well. This concept technically trades time with space, considering subduction zones where we have likely not observed the maximum possible event yet. However, by identifying sources of the same class, the not-yet observed temporal behavior can be replaced by spatial similarity among different subduction zones. This database aims to enhance the research and understanding of subduction zones and to quantify their potential in producing mega earthquakes considering potential strong motion impact on nearby cities and their tsunami potential.

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26 and 27). Tsunami deposits can be classified into two groups: modern tsunami deposits and paleotsunami deposits. A modern tsunami deposit is a deposit whose source event is known. A paleotsunami deposit is a deposit whose age is estimated and has a source that is either inferred to be a historical event or is unknown.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

The statistical analysis of energy release in small-scale coronal structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulyanov, Artyom; Kuzin, Sergey; Bogachev, Sergey

We present the results of statistical analysis of impulsive flare-like brightenings, which numerously occur in the quiet regions of solar corona. For our study, we utilized high-cadence observations performed with two EUV-telescopes - TESIS/Coronas-Photon and AIA/SDO. In total, we processed 6 sequences of images, registered throughout the period between 2009 and 2013, covering the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. Based on high-speed DEM estimation method, we developed a new technique to evaluate the main parameters of detected events (geometrical sizes, duration, temperature and thermal energy). We then obtained the statistical distributions of these parameters and examined their variations depending on the level of solar activity. The results imply that near the minimum of the solar cycle the energy release in quiet corona is mainly provided by small-scale events (nanoflares), whereas larger events (microflares) prevail on the peak of activity. Furthermore, we investigated the coronal conditions that had specified the formation and triggering of registered flares. By means of photospheric magnetograms obtained with MDI/SoHO and HMI/SDO instruments, we examined the topology of local magnetic fields at different stages: the pre-flare phase, the peak of intensity and the ending phase. To do so, we introduced a number of topological parameters including the total magnetic flux, the distance between magnetic sources and their mutual arrangement. The found correlation between the change of these parameters and the formation of flares may offer an important tool for application of flare forecasting.

Short-term microbial release during rain events from on-site sewers and cattle in a surface water source.

PubMed

Aström, Johan; Pettersson, Thomas J R; Reischer, Georg H; Hermansson, Malte

2013-09-01

The protection of drinking water from pathogens such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia requires an understanding of the short-term microbial release from faecal contamination sources in the catchment. Flow-weighted samples were collected during two rainfall events in a stream draining an area with on-site sewers and during two rainfall events in surface runoff from a bovine cattle pasture. Samples were analysed for human (BacH) and ruminant (BacR) Bacteroidales genetic markers through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and for sorbitol-fermenting bifidobacteria through culturing as a complement to traditional faecal indicator bacteria, somatic coliphages and the parasitic protozoa Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. analysed by standard methods. Significant positive correlations were observed between BacH, Escherichia coli, intestinal enterococci, sulphite-reducing Clostridia, turbidity, conductivity and UV254 in the stream contaminated by on-site sewers. For the cattle pasture, no correlation was found between any of the genetic markers and the other parameters. Although parasitic protozoa were not detected, the analysis for genetic markers provided baseline data on the short-term faecal contamination due to these potential sources of parasites. Background levels of BacH and BacR makers in soil emphasise the need to including soil reference samples in qPCR-based analyses for Bacteroidales genetic markers.

An Improved Source-Scanning Algorithm for Locating Earthquake Clusters or Aftershock Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Y.; Kao, H.; Hsu, S.

2010-12-01

The Source-scanning Algorithm (SSA) was originally introduced in 2004 to locate non-volcanic tremors. Its application was later expanded to the identification of earthquake rupture planes and the near-real-time detection and monitoring of landslides and mud/debris flows. In this study, we further improve SSA for the purpose of locating earthquake clusters or aftershock sequences when only a limited number of waveform observations are available. The main improvements include the application of a ground motion analyzer to separate P and S waves, the automatic determination of resolution based on the grid size and time step of the scanning process, and a modified brightness function to utilize constraints from multiple phases. Specifically, the improved SSA (named as ISSA) addresses two major issues related to locating earthquake clusters/aftershocks. The first one is the massive amount of both time and labour to locate a large number of seismic events manually. And the second one is to efficiently and correctly identify the same phase across the entire recording array when multiple events occur closely in time and space. To test the robustness of ISSA, we generate synthetic waveforms consisting of 3 separated events such that individual P and S phases arrive at different stations in different order, thus making correct phase picking nearly impossible. Using these very complicated waveforms as the input, the ISSA scans all model space for possible combination of time and location for the existence of seismic sources. The scanning results successfully associate various phases from each event at all stations, and correctly recover the input. To further demonstrate the advantage of ISSA, we apply it to the waveform data collected by a temporary OBS array for the aftershock sequence of an offshore earthquake southwest of Taiwan. The overall signal-to-noise ratio is inadequate for locating small events; and the precise arrival times of P and S phases are difficult to determine. We use one of the largest aftershocks that can be located by conventional methods as our reference event to calibrate the controlling parameters of ISSA. These parameters include the overall Vp/Vs ratio (because a precise S velocity model was unavailable), the length of scanning time window, and the weighting factor for each station. Our results show that ISSA is not only more efficient in locating earthquake clusters/aftershocks, but also capable of identifying many events missed by conventional phase-picking methods.

Localization of transient gravitational wave sources: beyond triangulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fairhurst, Stephen

2018-05-01

Rapid, accurate localization of gravitational wave transient events has proved critical to successful electromagnetic followup. In previous papers we have shown that localization estimates can be obtained through triangulation based on timing information at the detector sites. In practice, detailed parameter estimation routines use additional information and provide better localization than is possible based on timing information alone. In this paper, we extend the timing based localization approximation to incorporate consistency of observed signals with two gravitational wave polarizations, and an astrophysically motivated distribution of sources. Both of these provide significant improvements to source localization, allowing many sources to be restricted to a single sky region, with an area 40% smaller than predicted by timing information alone. Furthermore, we show that the vast majority of sources will be reconstructed to be circularly polarized or, equivalently, indistinguishable from face-on.

User's Guide for the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) Pollution Model Data Generator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finn, Michael P.; Scheidt, Douglas J.; Jaromack, Gregory M.

2003-01-01

BACKGROUND Throughout this user guide, we refer to datasets that we used in conjunction with developing of this software for supporting cartographic research and producing the datasets to conduct research. However, this software can be used with these datasets or with more 'generic' versions of data of the appropriate type. For example, throughout the guide, we refer to national land cover data (NLCD) and digital elevation model (DEM) data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at a 30-m resolution, but any digital terrain model or land cover data at any appropriate resolution will produce results. Another key point to keep in mind is to use a consistent data resolution for all the datasets per model run. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) developed the Agricultural Nonpoint Source (AGNPS) pollution model of watershed hydrology in response to the complex problem of managing nonpoint sources of pollution. AGNPS simulates the behavior of runoff, sediment, and nutrient transport from watersheds that have agriculture as their prime use. The model operates on a cell basis and is a distributed parameter, event-based model. The model requires 22 input parameters. Output parameters are grouped primarily by hydrology, sediment, and chemical output (Young and others, 1995.) Elevation, land cover, and soil are the base data from which to extract the 22 input parameters required by the AGNPS. For automatic parameter extraction, follow the general process described in this guide of extraction from the geospatial data through the AGNPS Data Generator to generate input parameters required by the pollution model (Finn and others, 2002.)

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binaries with Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Observations Using the LALInference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veitch, J.; Raymond, V.; Farr, B.; Farr, W.; Graff, P.; Vitale, S.; Aylott, B.; Blackburn, K.; Christensen, N.; Coughlin, M.

2015-01-01

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star (BNS), a neutron star - black hole binary (NSBH) and a binary black hole (BBH), where we show a cross-comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analysed with non-spinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analysing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence (CBC) parameter space.

Microearthquake spectra from the Anza, California, seismic network: site response and source scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Wennerberg, Leif

1989-01-01

We analyzed spectra of local microearthquakes recorded by the Anza, California, seismic network to isolate the effects of site response and to investigate the scaling of source parameters for small earthquakes. Spectra of microearthquakes (M < 2; Mo< 1019 dyne-cm) at Anza have shapes characteristic of the receiver sites and are generally independent of the source region. Thus, the site response is a major conditioner of the observed spectral shape. To remove the effects of site response from the spectra of a M ∼ 3 event and isolate its source spectrum, we divided by the spectra of an adjacent aftershock used as an empirical Green's function event. The spectral ratios indicate that the apparent corner frequencies of small earthquakes (Mo < 1019dyne-cm) observed at even the high-fmax stations on hard rock are much lower than the source corner frequencies. The spectral ratios are consistent with stress drop remaining constant with decreasing seismic moment, for events with moments as small as 1018 dyne-cm. The spectral ratios display remarkable agreement between sites which showed vast differences in their original spectra, indicating that the spectral division effectively removed the site response. The source spectrum of the M ∼ 3 event has a high-frequency spectral fall-off of about ω−2. An apparent dependence of high-frequency fall-off with seismic moment in the original spectra can also be explained by the effects of site response. The difference between the P- and S-wave corner frequencies and high-frequency roll-offs in the observed spectra for these events is the result of the site response and is not a source property. The shapes of the spectra of microearthquakes at Anza can largely be explained by attenuation at shallow depth with a frequency-independent Q. For some sites, near-surface resonances are also apparent in the spectra of microearthquakes. It is indicated by t* values determined for each site that Qp ∼ Qsfor the shallow low-Q layer. Further evidence of low near-surface Q is observed in the anomalous spectra of an unusually shallow earthquake (source depth ∼ 1 km) in the network. The spectra from this shallow event are depleted in high-frequency energy at most stations, relative to those of deeper events. This observation can be explained by a low-Q surficial zone. For stations of the network situated on alluvium, this low-Q layer has a maximum thickness of about 3 km and maximum P- and S-wave Q values of 30 to 50.

New insights on timing of oil and gas generation in the central Gulf Coast interior zone based on hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewan, Michael D.; Dutton, Shirley P.; Ruppel, Stephen C.; Hentz, Tucker F.

2002-01-01

Timing of oil and gas generation from Turonian and Smackover source rocks in the central Gulf CoastInterior Zone was determined in one-dimensional burial-history curves (BHCs) using hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters. The results predict that basal Smackover source-rock intervals with Type-IIS kerogen completed oil generation between 121 and 99 Ma, and Turonian source-rocks with Type-II kerogen remain immature over most of the same area. The only exception to the latter occurs in the northwestern part of the Mississippi salt basin, where initial stages of oil generation have started as a result of higher thermal gradients. This maturity difference between Turonian and Smackover source rocks is predicted with present-day thermal gradients. Predicted oil generation prior to the Sabine and Monroe uplifts suggests that a significant amount of the oil emplaced in Cretaceous reservoirs of these uplifts would have been lost during periods of erosion. Hydrous-pyrolysis kineticparameters predict that cracking of Smackover oil to gas started 52 Ma, which postdates major uplift and erosional events of the Sabine and Monroe uplifts. This generated gas would accumulate and persist in these uplift areas as currently observed. The predicted timing of oil and gas generation with hydrous-pyrolysis kinetic parameters is in accordance with the observed scarcity of oil from Turonian source rocks, predominance of gas accumulations on the Sabine and Monroe uplifts, and predominance of oil accumulations along the northern rim of the Interior Zone.

Evidence of scattering effects on the sizes of interplanetary Type III radio bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, J. L.; Hoang, S.; Dulk, G. A.

1985-01-01

An analysis is conducted of 162 interplanetary Type III radio bursts; some of these bursts have been observed in association with fast electrons and Langmuir wave events at 1 AU and, in addition, have been subjected to in situ plasma parameter measurements. It is noted that the sizes of burst sources are anomalously large, compared to what one would anticipate on the basis of the interplanetary plasma density distribution, and that the variation of source size with frequency, when compared with the plasma frequency variation measured in situ, implies that the source sizes expand with decreasing frequency to fill a cone whose apex is at the sun. It is also found that some local phenomenon near the earth controls the apparent size of low frequency Type III sources.

Inferring Models of Bacterial Dynamics toward Point Sources

PubMed Central

Jashnsaz, Hossein; Nguyen, Tyler; Petrache, Horia I.; Pressé, Steve

2015-01-01

Experiments have shown that bacteria can be sensitive to small variations in chemoattractant (CA) concentrations. Motivated by these findings, our focus here is on a regime rarely studied in experiments: bacteria tracking point CA sources (such as food patches or even prey). In tracking point sources, the CA detected by bacteria may show very large spatiotemporal fluctuations which vary with distance from the source. We present a general statistical model to describe how bacteria locate point sources of food on the basis of stochastic event detection, rather than CA gradient information. We show how all model parameters can be directly inferred from single cell tracking data even in the limit of high detection noise. Once parameterized, our model recapitulates bacterial behavior around point sources such as the “volcano effect”. In addition, while the search by bacteria for point sources such as prey may appear random, our model identifies key statistical signatures of a targeted search for a point source given any arbitrary source configuration. PMID:26466373

Source characterization of a small earthquake cluster at Edmond, Oklahoma using a very dense array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, R.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Recent seismicity in Oklahoma has caught the attention of the public in the last few years since seismicity is commonly related to loss in urban areas. To account for the increase in public interest, improve the understanding of damaging ground motions produced in earthquakes and develop better seismic hazard assessment, we must characterize the seismicity in Oklahoma and its associated structure and source parameters. Regional changes in subsurface stresses have increased seismic activities due to reactivation of faults in places such as central Oklahoma. It is imperative for seismic investigation and modeling to characterize subsurface structural features that may influence the damaging effects of ground motion. We analyze the full-waveform data collected from a temporary dense array of 72 portable seismometers with a 110 meter spacing that were active for a one-month period from May to June 2017, deployed at Edmond, Oklahoma. The data from this one-month duration array captured over 10,000 events and enabled us to make measurements of small-scale lateral variations of earthquake wavefields. We examine the waveform for events using advanced methods of detection, location and determine the source mechanism. We compare our results with selected events listed in the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) and United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalogue. Based on the detection and located small events, we will discuss the causative fault structure at the area and present the results of the investigation.

Analysis of rainwater dissolved organic carbon compounds using fluorescence spectrophotometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Catherine L.; Baker, Andy; Hutchinson, Robert; Fairchild, Ian J.; Kidd, Chris

Global rainwater dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux was recently estimated as 430 × 10 12 g C yr -1, yet little is known about the wide range of chemical compounds present, their sources, temporal patterns of variation, and the subsequent impact on climate and the environment. Precipitation events were sampled in Birmingham, UK between April 2005 and May 2007. Rainwater DOC compounds were analysed using fluorescence spectrophotometry. Three fluorophores were identified: HUmic-LIke Substances (HULIS), TYrosine-LIke Substances (TYLIS) and TRYptophan-LIke Substances (TRYLIS). Peak fluorescence intensities and locations for each substance were examined, and their variations with various meteorological parameters were investigated. The mean HULIS fluorescence intensity from all events was 209 a.u. (with sample fluorescence ranging from 37 a.u. to 995 a.u); mean fluorescence intensity was 469 a.u. (214-988 a.u) and 265 a.u. (50-876 a.u.) for TYLIS and TRYLIS, respectively. Results indicate that highest HULIS fluorescence intensities are experienced during convective events and events of continental origin, suggesting terrestrial/anthropogenic sources. Under well-mixed conditions, HULIS fluorescence intensity decreases, whereas during low wind speed, stagnation of the atmosphere results in higher fluorescence intensities, attributed to a build up of localised sources, particularly anthropogenic. TYLIS and TRYLIS did not show any significant trends for the meteorological variables. Fluorescence spectrophotometry is a fast, non-invasive technique which is demonstrated to be a powerful means of fingerprinting rainfall DOC compounds in real time for small sample volumes.

A statistical kinematic source inversion approach based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, Olaf; McDougall, Damon; Mai, Martin; Babuska, Ivo

2014-05-01

Seismic, often augmented with geodetic data, are frequently used to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip along a rupture plane. The resulting images of the slip evolution for a single event, inferred by different research teams, often vary distinctly, depending on the adopted inversion approach and rupture model parameterization. This observation raises the question, which of the provided kinematic source inversion solutions is most reliable and most robust, and — more generally — how accurate are fault parameterization and solution predictions? These issues are not included in "standard" source inversion approaches. Here, we present a statistical inversion approach to constrain kinematic rupture parameters from teleseismic body waves. The approach is based a) on a forward-modeling scheme that computes synthetic (body-)waves for a given kinematic rupture model, and b) on the QUESO (Quantification of Uncertainty for Estimation, Simulation, and Optimization) library that uses MCMC algorithms and Bayes theorem for sample selection. We present Bayesian inversions for rupture parameters in synthetic earthquakes (i.e. for which the exact rupture history is known) in an attempt to identify the cross-over at which further model discretization (spatial and temporal resolution of the parameter space) is no longer attributed to a decreasing misfit. Identification of this cross-over is of importance as it reveals the resolution power of the studied data set (i.e. teleseismic body waves), enabling one to constrain kinematic earthquake rupture histories of real earthquakes at a resolution that is supported by data. In addition, the Bayesian approach allows for mapping complete posterior probability density functions of the desired kinematic source parameters, thus enabling us to rigorously assess the uncertainties in earthquake source inversions.

Insight into subdecimeter fracturing processes during hydraulic fracture experiment in Äspö hard rock laboratory, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Martínez-Garzón, Patricia; Plenkers, Katrin; Leonhardt, Maria; Zang, Arno; Dresen, Georg; Bohnhoff, Marco

2017-04-01

We analyze the nano- and picoseismicity recorded during a hydraulic fracturing in-situ experiment performed in Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden. The fracturing experiment included six fracture stages driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization) and was performed inside a 28 m long, horizontal borehole located at 410 m depth. The fracturing process was monitored with two different seismic networks covering a wide frequency band between 0.01 Hz and 100000 Hz and included broadband seismometers, geophones, high-frequency accelerometers and acoustic emission sensors. The combined seismic network allowed for detection and detailed analysis of seismicity with moment magnitudes MW<-4 (source sizes approx. on cm scale) that occurred solely during the hydraulic fracturing and refracturing stages. We relocated the seismicity catalog using the double-difference technique and calculated the source parameters (seismic moment, source size, stress drop, focal mechanism and seismic moment tensors). The physical characteristics of induced seismicity are compared to the stimulation parameters and to the formation parameters of the site. The seismic activity varies significantly depending on stimulation strategy with conventional, continuous stimulation being the most seismogenic. We find a systematic spatio-temporal migration of microseismic events (propagation away and towards wellbore injection interval) and temporal transitions in source mechanisms (opening - shearing - collapse) both being controlled by changes in fluid injection pressure. The derived focal mechanism parameters are in accordance with the local stress field orientation, and signify the reactivation of pre-existing rock flaws. The seismicity follows statistical and source scaling relations observed at different scales elsewhere, however, at an extremely low level of seismic efficiency.

Model space exploration for determining landslide source history from long period seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Mangeney, A.; Stutzmann, E.; Capdeville, Y.; Moretti, L.; Calder, E. S.; Smith, P. J.; Cole, P.; Le Friant, A.

2012-12-01

The seismic signals generated by high magnitude landslide events can be recorded at remote stations, which provides access to the landslide process. During the "Boxing Day" eruption at Montserrat in 1997, the long-period seismic signals generated by the debris avalanche are recorded by two stations at distances of 450km and 1261km. We investigate the landslide process considering that the landslide source can be described by single forces. The period band 25-50 sec is selected for which the landslide signal is clearly visible at the two stations. We first use the transverse component of the closest station to determine the horizontal forces. We model the seismogram by normal mode summation and investigate the model space. Two horizontal forces are found that best fit the data. These two horizontal forces have similar amplitude, but opposite direction and they are separated in time by 70 sec. The radiation pattern of the transverse component does not enable to determine the exact azimuth of these forces. We then model the vertical component of the seismograms which enable to retrieve both the vertical and horizontal forces. Using the parameter previously determined (amplitude ratio and time shift of the 2 horizontal forces), we further investigate the model space and show that a single vertical force together with the 2 horizontal forces enable to fit the data. The complete source time function can be described as follows: a horizontal force toward the opposite direction of the landslide flow is followed 40 sec later by a vertical downward force and 30 more seconds later by a horizontal force toward the direction of the flow. The volume of the landslide estimated from the force magnitude is compatible with the volume determined by field survey. Inverting directly the seismograms in the period band 25-50sec enable to retrieve a source time function that is consistent with the 3 forces determined previously. The source time function in this narrow period band alone does not enable easily to recover the corresponding single forces. This method can be used to determine the source parameters using only 2 distant stations. It is successfully tested also on other landslides such as Mount St. Helens (1980) event and Mount Steller event (2005) which are recorded by more broadband stations.

A rapid calculation system for tsunami propagation in Japan by using the AQUA-MT/CMT solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, T.; Suzuki, W.; Yamamoto, N.; Kimura, H.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

We developed a rapid calculation system of geodetic deformations and tsunami propagation in and around Japan. The system automatically conducts their forward calculations by using point source parameters estimated by the AQUA system (Matsumura et al., 2006), which analyze magnitude, hypocenter, and moment tensors for an event occurring in Japan in 3 minutes of the origin time at the earliest. An optimized calculation code developed by Nakamura and Baba (2016) is employed for the calculations on our computer server with 12 core processors of Intel Xeon 2.60 GHz. Assuming a homogeneous fault slip in the single fault plane as the source fault, the developed system calculates each geodetic deformation and tsunami propagation by numerically solving the 2D linear long-wave equations for the grid interval of 1 arc-min from two fault orientations simultaneously; i.e., one fault and its conjugate fault plane. Because fault models based on moment tensor analyses of event data are used, the system appropriately evaluate tsunami propagation even for unexpected events such as normal faulting in the subduction zone, which differs with the evaluation of tsunami arrivals and heights from a pre-calculated database by using fault models assuming typical types of faulting in anticipated source areas (e.g., Tatehata, 1998; Titov et al., 2005; Yamamoto et al., 2016). By the complete automation from event detection to output graphical figures, the calculation results can be available via e-mail and web site in 4 minutes of the origin time at the earliest. For moderate-sized events such as M5 to 6 events, the system helps us to rapidly investigate whether amplitudes of tsunamis at nearshore and offshore stations exceed a noise level or not, and easily identify actual tsunamis at the stations by comparing with obtained synthetic waveforms. In the case of using source models investigated from GNSS data, such evaluations may be difficult because of the low resolution of sources due to a low signal to noise ratio at land stations. For large to huge events in offshore areas, the developed system may be useful to decide to starting or stopping preparations and precautions against tsunami arrivals, because calculation results including arrival times and heights of initial and maximum waves can be rapidly available before their arrivals at coastal areas.

The ATLAS Eventlndex: data flow and inclusion of other metadata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberis, D.; Cárdenas Zárate, S. E.; Favareto, A.; Fernandez Casani, A.; Gallas, E. J.; Garcia Montoro, C.; Gonzalez de la Hoz, S.; Hrivnac, J.; Malon, D.; Prokoshin, F.; Salt, J.; Sanchez, J.; Toebbicke, R.; Yuan, R.; ATLAS Collaboration

2016-10-01

The ATLAS EventIndex is the catalogue of the event-related metadata for the information collected from the ATLAS detector. The basic unit of this information is the event record, containing the event identification parameters, pointers to the files containing this event as well as trigger decision information. The main use case for the EventIndex is event picking, as well as data consistency checks for large production campaigns. The EventIndex employs the Hadoop platform for data storage and handling, as well as a messaging system for the collection of information. The information for the EventIndex is collected both at Tier-0, when the data are first produced, and from the Grid, when various types of derived data are produced. The EventIndex uses various types of auxiliary information from other ATLAS sources for data collection and processing: trigger tables from the condition metadata database (COMA), dataset information from the data catalogue AMI and the Rucio data management system and information on production jobs from the ATLAS production system. The ATLAS production system is also used for the collection of event information from the Grid jobs. EventIndex developments started in 2012 and in the middle of 2015 the system was commissioned and started collecting event metadata, as a part of ATLAS Distributed Computing operations.

In-situ investigation of relations between slow slip events, repeaters and earthquake nucleation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marty, S. B.; Schubnel, A.; Gardonio, B.; Bhat, H. S.; Fukuyama, E.

2017-12-01

Recent observations have shown that, in subduction zones, imperceptible slip, known as "slow slip events", could trigger powerful earthquakes and could be link to the onset of swarms of repeaters. In the aim of investigating the relation between repeaters, slow slip events and earthquake nucleation, we have conducted stick-slip experiments on saw-cut Indian Gabbro under upper crustal stress conditions (up to 180 MPa confining pressure). During the past decades, the reproduction of micro-earthquakes in the laboratory enabled a better understanding and to better constrain physical parameters that are the origin of the seismic source. Using a new set of calibrated piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors and high frequency dynamic strain gages, we are now able to measure a large number of physical parameters during stick-slip motion, such as the rupture velocity, the slip velocity, the dynamic stress drop and the absolute magnitudes and sizes of foreshock acoustic emissions. Preliminary observations systemically show quasi-static slip accelerations, onset of repeaters as well as an increase in the acoustic emission rate before failure. In the next future, we will further investigate the links between slow slip events, repeaters, stress build-up and earthquakes, using our high-frequency acoustic and strain recordings and applying template matching analysis.

Ocean color remote sensing of turbid plumes in the southern California coastal waters during storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahet, Florence; Stramski, Dariusz

2007-09-01

Water-leaving radiance data obtained from MODIS-Aqua satellite images at spatial resolution of 250 m (band 1 at 645 nm) and 500 m (band 4 at 555 nm) were used to analyze the correlation between plume area and rainfall during strong storm events in coastal waters of Southern California. Our study is focused on the area between Point Loma and the US-Mexican border in San Diego, which is influenced by terrigenous input of particulate and dissolved materials from San Diego and Tijuana watersheds and non-point sources along the shore. For several events of intense rainstorms that occurred in the winter of 2004-2005, we carried out a correlational analysis between the satellite-derived plume area and rainfall parameters. We examined several rainfall parameters and methods for the estimation of plume area. We identified the optimal threshold values of satellite-derived normalized water-leaving radiances at 645 nm and 555 nm for distinguishing the plume from ambient ocean waters. The satellite-derived plume size showed high correlation with the amount of precipitated water accumulated during storm event over the San Diego and Tijuana watersheds. Our results support the potential of ocean color imagery with relatively high spatial resolution for the study of turbid plumes in the coastal ocean.

An integrated investigation of the induced seismicity near Crooked Lake, Alberta, Canada in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, R.; Gu, Y. J.; Shen, J.; Schultz, R.

2016-12-01

In the past three years, the Crooked Lake (or Fox Creek) region has become one of the most seismically active areas in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), mostly attributable to hydraulic-fracturing operations on shale gas. Among the human-related earthquakes, the January 12, 2016 event (M = 4.1) not only triggered the "red light" provincial protocol, leading to the temporary suspension of a near-by injection well, but also set a new magnitude record for earthquakes in Alberta in the last decade. In this study, we determine the source parameters (e.g., magnitude, hypocenter location) of this earthquake and its aftershocks using full moment tensor inversions. Our findings are consistent with the anthropogenic origin of this earthquake and the source solution of the main shock shows a strike-slip mechanism with limited non-double-couple components ( 22%). The candidate fault orientations, which are predominantly N-S and E-W trending, are consistent with those of earlier events in this region but different from induced events in other parts in the WCSB. The inferred compressional axis is supported by crustal stress orientations extracted from bore-hole breakouts and the right-lateral fault is preferred by both seismic and aeromagnetic data. A further analysis of the waveforms from the near-source stations (<10 km) detected nearly 100 pre-/aftershocks within a week of this earthquake. Systematic differences in the waveforms between earthquake multiples before and after the master event suggest moderate changes of seismic velocity structures at the injection depth around the source area, possibly a reflection of fluid migration and/or changes in stress field. In short, our integrated study on the January 2016 earthquake cluster offers critical insights on the nature of induced earthquakes in the Crooked Lake region and other parts of the WCSB.

Single-event burnout hardening of planar power MOSFET with partially widened trench source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jiang; Liu, Hainan; Cai, Xiaowu; Luo, Jiajun; Li, Bo; Li, Binhong; Wang, Lixin; Han, Zhengsheng

2018-03-01

We present a single-event burnout (SEB) hardened planar power MOSFET with partially widened trench sources by three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulation. The advantage of the proposed structure is that the work of the parasitic bipolar transistor inherited in the power MOSFET is suppressed effectively due to the elimination of the most sensitive region (P-well region below the N+ source). The simulation result shows that the proposed structure can enhance the SEB survivability significantly. The critical value of linear energy transfer (LET), which indicates the maximum deposited energy on the device without SEB behavior, increases from 0.06 to 0.7 pC/μm. The SEB threshold voltage increases to 120 V, which is 80% of the rated breakdown voltage. Meanwhile, the main parameter characteristics of the proposed structure remain similar with those of the conventional planar structure. Therefore, this structure offers a potential optimization path to planar power MOSFET with high SEB survivability for space and atmospheric applications. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61404161, 61404068, 61404169).

Nanoscale MOS devices: device parameter fluctuations and low-frequency noise (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Hei; Iwai, Hiroshi; Liou, J. J.

2005-05-01

It is well-known in conventional MOS transistors that the low-frequency noise or flicker noise is mainly contributed by the trapping-detrapping events in the gate oxide and the mobility fluctuation in the surface channel. In nanoscale MOS transistors, the number of trapping-detrapping events becomes less important because of the large direct tunneling current through the ultrathin gate dielectric which reduces the probability of trapping-detrapping and the level of leakage current fluctuation. Other noise sources become more significant in nanoscale devices. The source and drain resistance noises have greater impact on the drain current noise. Significant contribution of the parasitic bipolar transistor noise in ultra-short channel and channel mobility fluctuation to the channel noise are observed. The channel mobility fluctuation in nanoscale devices could be due to the local composition fluctuation of the gate dielectric material which gives rise to the permittivity fluctuation along the channel and results in gigantic channel potential fluctuation. On the other hand, the statistical variations of the device parameters across the wafer would cause the noise measurements less accurate which will be a challenge for the applicability of analytical flicker noise model as a process or device evaluation tool for nanoscale devices. Some measures for circumventing these difficulties are proposed.

Forecasting E > 50-MeV Proton Events with the Proton Prediction System (PPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahler, S. W.; White, S. M.; Ling, A. G.

2017-12-01

Forecasting solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events is an important element of space weather. While several models have been developed for use in forecasting such events, satellite operations are particularly vulnerable to higher-energy (> 50 MeV) SEP events. Here we validate one model, the proton prediction system (PPS), which extends to that energy range. We first develop a data base of E > 50-MeV proton events > 1.0 proton flux units (pfu) events observed on the GOES satellite over the period 1986 to 2016. We modify the PPS to forecast proton events at the reduced level of 1 pfu and run PPS for four different solar input parameters: (1) all > M5 solar X-ray flares; (2) all > 200 sfu 8800-MHz bursts with associated > M5 flares; (3) all > 500 sfu 8800-MHz bursts; and (4) all > 5000 sfu 8800-MHz bursts. For X-ray flare inputs the forecasted event peak intensities and fluences are compared with observed values. The validation contingency tables and skill scores are calculated for all groups and used as a guide to use of the PPS. We plot the false alarms and missed events as functions of solar source longitude.

Faulting Parameters of the January 16, 1994 Wyomissing Hills, Pennsylvania Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ammon, C.J.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Langston, C.A.; Benz, H.

1998-01-01

Two events dominated the January 1994, Wyomissing, PA earthquake sequence, an Mw 4.0 foreshock, followed by an Mw 4.6 mainshock. We modeled regional waveforms to estimate the event depth and the moment tensors for the two largest events in the sequence, and examine teleseismic wave-forms recorded on the ARCESS short-period seismic array to estimate the depth and source time function of the mainshock. Our data constrain the depth of the events to be shallower than 5 km, and prefer a depth of 3-5 km. For an assumed depth of 3 km, the mainshock moment tensor is 75% double couple, with (the major double couple) planes striking at 135??N, 347??N, dips of 49??, 46??, and rakes of 68??, 114??. The estimated moment is 8.9 ?? 1022 dyne-cm. The P axis strikes 241??N and plunges 2??, the Tension axis strikes 336??N and plunges 73??. The foreshock inversion results are virtually identical to the mainshock results; for a source depth of three km, we find a major double couple with a strike, dip, and rake of 121??N, 60??, and 66??, respectively. The seismic moment for the foreshock is 1.2 ?? 1022 dyne-cm, which is approximately 13% of the mainshock moment release. These events did not excite high-frequency Lg waves as effectively as typical eastern North American events, and the mainshock had a stress drop in the range of 25-50 bars.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

Strong correlation between stress drop and peak ground acceleration for recent M1–4 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE PAGES

Trugman, Daniel Taylor; Shearer, Peter M.

2018-03-06

Theoretical and observational studies suggest that between-event variability in the median ground motions of larger ( M≥5 ) earthquakes is controlled primarily by the dynamic properties of the earthquake source, such as Brune-type stress drop. Analogous results remain equivocal for smaller events due to the lack of comprehensive and overlapping ground-motion and source-parameter datasets in this regime. Here in this paper, we investigate the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA) and dynamic stress drop for a new dataset of 5297 earthquakes that occurred in the San Francisco Bay area from 2002 through 2016. For each event, we measure PGA onmore » horizontal-component channels of stations within 100 km and estimate stress drop from P-wave spectra recorded on vertical-component channels of the same stations. We then develop a nonparametric ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) applicable for the moderate (M 1–4) earthquakes in our study region, using a mixed-effects generalization of the Random Forest algorithm. We use the Random Forest GMPE to model the joint influence of magnitude, distance, and near-site effects on observed PGA. We observe a strong correlation between dynamic stress drop and the residual PGA of each event, with the events with higher-than-expected PGA associated with higher values of stress drop. The strength of this correlation increases as a function of magnitude but remains significant even for smaller magnitude events with corner frequencies that approach the observable bandwidth of the acceleration records. Mainshock events are characterized by systematically higher stress drop and PGA than aftershocks of equivalent magnitude. Coherent local variations in the distribution of dynamic stress drop provide observational constraints to support the future development of nonergodic GMPEs that account for variations in median stress drop at different source locations.« less

Strong correlation between stress drop and peak ground acceleration for recent M1–4 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trugman, Daniel Taylor; Shearer, Peter M.

Theoretical and observational studies suggest that between-event variability in the median ground motions of larger ( M≥5 ) earthquakes is controlled primarily by the dynamic properties of the earthquake source, such as Brune-type stress drop. Analogous results remain equivocal for smaller events due to the lack of comprehensive and overlapping ground-motion and source-parameter datasets in this regime. Here in this paper, we investigate the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA) and dynamic stress drop for a new dataset of 5297 earthquakes that occurred in the San Francisco Bay area from 2002 through 2016. For each event, we measure PGA onmore » horizontal-component channels of stations within 100 km and estimate stress drop from P-wave spectra recorded on vertical-component channels of the same stations. We then develop a nonparametric ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) applicable for the moderate (M 1–4) earthquakes in our study region, using a mixed-effects generalization of the Random Forest algorithm. We use the Random Forest GMPE to model the joint influence of magnitude, distance, and near-site effects on observed PGA. We observe a strong correlation between dynamic stress drop and the residual PGA of each event, with the events with higher-than-expected PGA associated with higher values of stress drop. The strength of this correlation increases as a function of magnitude but remains significant even for smaller magnitude events with corner frequencies that approach the observable bandwidth of the acceleration records. Mainshock events are characterized by systematically higher stress drop and PGA than aftershocks of equivalent magnitude. Coherent local variations in the distribution of dynamic stress drop provide observational constraints to support the future development of nonergodic GMPEs that account for variations in median stress drop at different source locations.« less

Design and development of JUNO event data model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Teng; Xia, Xin; Huang, Xing-Tao; Zou, Jia-Heng; Li, Wei-Dong; Lin, Tao; Zhang, Kun; Deng, Zi-Yan

2017-06-01

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) detector is designed to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy and precisely measure oscillation parameters. The general purpose design also allows measurements of neutrinos from many terrestrial and non-terrestrial sources. The JUNO Event Data Model (EDM) plays a central role in the offline software system. It describes the event data entities through all processing stages for both simulated and collected data, and provides persistency via the input/output system. Also, the EDM is designed to enable flexible event handling such as event navigation, as well as the splitting of MC IBD signals and mixing of MC backgrounds. This paper describes the design, implementation and performance of the JUNO EDM. Supported by Joint Large-Scale Scientific Facility Funds of the NSFC and CAS (U1532258), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET-13-0342), the Shandong Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar (JQ201402) and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA10010900)

An Indication of Anisotropy in Arrival Directions of Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays through Comparison to the Flux Pattern of Extragalactic Gamma-Ray Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aab, A.; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; Albuquerque, I. F. M.; Allekotte, I.; Almela, A.; Alvarez Castillo, J.; Alvarez-Muñiz, J.; Anastasi, G. A.; Anchordoqui, L.; Andrada, B.; Andringa, S.; Aramo, C.; Arsene, N.; Asorey, H.; Assis, P.; Avila, G.; Badescu, A. M.; Balaceanu, A.; Barbato, F.; Barreira Luz, R. J.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker, K. H.; Bellido, J. A.; Berat, C.; Bertaina, M. E.; Bertou, X.; Biermann, P. L.; Biteau, J.; Blaess, S. G.; Blanco, A.; Blazek, J.; Bleve, C.; Boháčová, M.; Bonifazi, C.; Borodai, N.; Botti, A. M.; Brack, J.; Brancus, I.; Bretz, T.; Bridgeman, A.; Briechle, F. L.; Buchholz, P.; Bueno, A.; Buitink, S.; Buscemi, M.; Caballero-Mora, K. S.; Caccianiga, L.; Cancio, A.; Canfora, F.; Caruso, R.; Castellina, A.; Catalani, F.; Cataldi, G.; Cazon, L.; Chavez, A. G.; Chinellato, J. A.; Chudoba, J.; Clay, R. W.; Cobos Cerutti, A. C.; Colalillo, R.; Coleman, A.; Collica, L.; Coluccia, M. R.; Conceição, R.; Consolati, G.; Contreras, F.; Cooper, M. J.; Coutu, S.; Covault, C. E.; Cronin, J.; D’Amico, S.; Daniel, B.; Dasso, S.; Daumiller, K.; Dawson, B. R.; de Almeida, R. M.; de Jong, S. J.; De Mauro, G.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; De Mitri, I.; de Oliveira, J.; de Souza, V.; Debatin, J.; Deligny, O.; Díaz Castro, M. L.; Diogo, F.; Dobrigkeit, C.; D’Olivo, J. C.; Dorosti, Q.; dos Anjos, R. C.; Dova, M. T.; Dundovic, A.; Ebr, J.; Engel, R.; Erdmann, M.; Erfani, M.; Escobar, C. O.; Espadanal, J.; Etchegoyen, A.; Falcke, H.; Farmer, J.; Farrar, G.; Fauth, A. C.; Fazzini, N.; Fenu, F.; Fick, B.; Figueira, J. M.; Filipčič, A.; Freire, M. M.; Fujii, T.; Fuster, A.; Gaïor, R.; García, B.; Gaté, F.; Gemmeke, H.; Gherghel-Lascu, A.; Ghia, P. L.; Giaccari, U.; Giammarchi, M.; Giller, M.; Głas, D.; Glaser, C.; Golup, G.; Gómez Berisso, M.; Gómez Vitale, P. F.; González, N.; Gorgi, A.; Grillo, A. F.; Grubb, T. D.; Guarino, F.; Guedes, G. P.; Halliday, R.; Hampel, M. R.; Hansen, P.; Harari, D.; Harrison, T. A.; Haungs, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heck, D.; Heimann, P.; Herve, A. E.; Hill, G. C.; Hojvat, C.; Holt, E.; Homola, P.; Hörandel, J. R.; Horvath, P.; Hrabovský, M.; Huege, T.; Hulsman, J.; Insolia, A.; Isar, P. G.; Jandt, I.; Johnsen, J. A.; Josebachuili, M.; Jurysek, J.; Kääpä, A.; Kambeitz, O.; Kampert, K. H.; Keilhauer, B.; Kemmerich, N.; Kemp, E.; Kemp, J.; Kieckhafer, R. M.; Klages, H. O.; Kleifges, M.; Kleinfeller, J.; Krause, R.; Krohm, N.; Kuempel, D.; Kukec Mezek, G.; Kunka, N.; Kuotb Awad, A.; Lago, B. L.; LaHurd, D.; Lang, R. G.; Lauscher, M.; Legumina, R.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Letessier-Selvon, A.; Lhenry-Yvon, I.; Link, K.; Lo Presti, D.; Lopes, L.; López, R.; López Casado, A.; Lorek, R.; Luce, Q.; Lucero, A.; Malacari, M.; Mallamaci, M.; Mandat, D.; Mantsch, P.; Mariazzi, A. G.; Mariş, I. C.; Marsella, G.; Martello, D.; Martinez, H.; Martínez Bravo, O.; Masías Meza, J. J.; Mathes, H. J.; Mathys, S.; Matthews, J.; Matthiae, G.; Mayotte, E.; Mazur, P. O.; Medina, C.; Medina-Tanco, G.; Melo, D.; Menshikov, A.; Merenda, K.-D.; Michal, S.; Micheletti, M. I.; Middendorf, L.; Miramonti, L.; Mitrica, B.; Mockler, D.; Mollerach, S.; Montanet, F.; Morello, C.; Morlino, G.; Mostafá, M.; Müller, A. L.; Müller, G.; Muller, M. A.; Müller, S.; Mussa, R.; Naranjo, I.; Nellen, L.; Nguyen, P. H.; Niculescu-Oglinzanu, M.; Niechciol, M.; Niemietz, L.; Niggemann, T.; Nitz, D.; Nosek, D.; Novotny, V.; Nožka, L.; Núñez, L. A.; Oikonomou, F.; Olinto, A.; Palatka, M.; Pallotta, J.; Papenbreer, P.; Parente, G.; Parra, A.; Paul, T.; Pech, M.; Pedreira, F.; Pȩkala, J.; Pelayo, R.; Peña-Rodriguez, J.; Pereira, L. A. S.; Perlin, M.; Perrone, L.; Peters, C.; Petrera, S.; Phuntsok, J.; Pierog, T.; Pimenta, M.; Pirronello, V.; Platino, M.; Plum, M.; Poh, J.; Porowski, C.; Prado, R. R.; Privitera, P.; Prouza, M.; Quel, E. J.; Querchfeld, S.; Quinn, S.; Ramos-Pollan, R.; Rautenberg, J.; Ravignani, D.; Ridky, J.; Riehn, F.; Risse, M.; Ristori, P.; Rizi, V.; Rodrigues de Carvalho, W.; Rodriguez Fernandez, G.; Rodriguez Rojo, J.; Roncoroni, M. J.; Roth, M.; Roulet, E.; Rovero, A. C.; Ruehl, P.; Saffi, S. J.; Saftoiu, A.; Salamida, F.; Salazar, H.; Saleh, A.; Salina, G.; Sánchez, F.; Sanchez-Lucas, P.; Santos, E. M.; Santos, E.; Sarazin, F.; Sarmento, R.; Sarmiento-Cano, C.; Sato, R.; Schauer, M.; Scherini, V.; Schieler, H.; Schimp, M.; Schmidt, D.; Scholten, O.; Schovánek, P.; Schröder, F. G.; Schröder, S.; Schulz, A.; Schumacher, J.; Sciutto, S. J.; Segreto, A.; Shadkam, A.; Shellard, R. C.; Sigl, G.; Silli, G.; Šmída, R.; Snow, G. R.; Sommers, P.; Sonntag, S.; Soriano, J. F.; Squartini, R.; Stanca, D.; Stanič, S.; Stasielak, J.; Stassi, P.; Stolpovskiy, M.; Strafella, F.; Streich, A.; Suarez, F.; Suarez Durán, M.; Sudholz, T.; Suomijärvi, T.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Šupík, J.; Swain, J.; Szadkowski, Z.; Taboada, A.; Taborda, O. A.; Theodoro, V. M.; Timmermans, C.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Tomankova, L.; Tomé, B.; Torralba Elipe, G.; Travnicek, P.; Trini, M.; Ulrich, R.; Unger, M.; Urban, M.; Valdés Galicia, J. F.; Valiño, I.; Valore, L.; van Aar, G.; van Bodegom, P.; van den Berg, A. M.; van Vliet, A.; Varela, E.; Vargas Cárdenas, B.; Vázquez, R. A.; Veberič, D.; Ventura, C.; Vergara Quispe, I. D.; Verzi, V.; Vicha, J.; Villaseñor, L.; Vorobiov, S.; Wahlberg, H.; Wainberg, O.; Walz, D.; Watson, A. A.; Weber, M.; Weindl, A.; Wiedeński, M.; Wiencke, L.; Wilczyński, H.; Wirtz, M.; Wittkowski, D.; Wundheiler, B.; Yang, L.; Yushkov, A.; Zas, E.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zepeda, A.; Zimmermann, B.; Ziolkowski, M.; Zong, Z.; Zuccarello, F.; The Pierre Auger Collaboration

2018-02-01

A new analysis of the data set from the Pierre Auger Observatory provides evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays on an intermediate angular scale, which is indicative of excess arrivals from strong, nearby sources. The data consist of 5514 events above 20 {EeV} with zenith angles up to 80° recorded before 2017 April 30. Sky models have been created for two distinct populations of extragalactic gamma-ray emitters: active galactic nuclei from the second catalog of hard Fermi-LAT sources (2FHL) and starburst galaxies from a sample that was examined with Fermi-LAT. Flux-limited samples, which include all types of galaxies from the Swift-BAT and 2MASS surveys, have been investigated for comparison. The sky model of cosmic-ray density constructed using each catalog has two free parameters, the fraction of events correlating with astrophysical objects, and an angular scale characterizing the clustering of cosmic rays around extragalactic sources. A maximum-likelihood ratio test is used to evaluate the best values of these parameters and to quantify the strength of each model by contrast with isotropy. It is found that the starburst model fits the data better than the hypothesis of isotropy with a statistical significance of 4.0σ, the highest value of the test statistic being for energies above 39 {EeV}. The three alternative models are favored against isotropy with 2.7σ–3.2σ significance. The origin of the indicated deviation from isotropy is examined and prospects for more sensitive future studies are discussed. Any correspondence should be addressed to .

An Indication of Anisotropy in Arrival Directions of Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays through Comparison to the Flux Pattern of Extragalactic Gamma-Ray Sources

DOE PAGES

Aab, A.; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.; ...

2018-02-02

A new analysis of the dataset from the Pierre Auger Observatory provides evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays on an intermediate angular scale, which is indicative of excess arrivals from strong, nearby sources. The data consist of 5514 events above 20 EeV with zenith angles up to 80 deg recorded before 2017 April 30. Sky models have been created for two distinct populations of extragalactic gamma-ray emitters: active galactic nuclei from the second catalog of hard Fermi-LAT sources (2FHL) and starburst galaxies from a sample that was examined with Fermi-LAT. Flux-limited samples, which include allmore » types of galaxies from the Swift-BAT and 2MASS surveys, have been investigated for comparison. The sky model of cosmic-ray density constructed using each catalog has two free parameters, the fraction of events correlating with astrophysical objects and an angular scale characterizing the clustering of cosmic rays around extragalactic sources. A maximum-likelihood ratio test is used to evaluate the best values of these parameters and to quantify the strength of each model by contrast with isotropy. It is found that the starburst model fits the data better than the hypothesis of isotropy with a statistical significance of 4.0 sigma, the highest value of the test statistic being for energies above 39 EeV. The three alternative models are favored against isotropy with 2.7-3.2 sigma significance. The origin of the indicated deviation from isotropy is examined and prospects for more sensitive future studies are discussed.« less

Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges: The January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Takahashi, H.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Mikada, H.

2003-01-01

Micro-tsunami waves with a maximum amplitude of 4-6 mm were detected with the ocean-bottom pressure gauges on a cabled deep seafloor observatory south of Hokkaido, Japan, following the January 28, 2000 earthquake (Mw 6.8) in the southern Kuril subduction zone. We model the observed micro-tsunami and estimate the focal depth and other source parameters such as fault length and amount of slip using grid searching with the least-squares method. The source depth and stress drop for the January 2000 earthquake are estimated to be 50 km and 7 MPa, respectively, with possible ranges of 45-55 km and 4-13 MPa. Focal depth of typical inter-plate earthquakes in this region ranges from 10 to 20 km and stress drop of inter-plate earthquakes generally is around 3 MPa. The source depth and stress drop estimates suggest that the earthquake was an intra-slab event in the subducting Pacific plate, rather than an inter-plate event. In addition, for a prescribed fault width of 30 km, the fault length is estimated to be 15 km, with possible ranges of 10-20 km, which is the same as the previously determined aftershock distribution. The corresponding estimate for seismic moment is 2.7x1019 Nm with possible ranges of 2.3x1019-3.2x1019Nm. Standard tide gauges along the nearby coast did not record any tsunami signal. High-precision ocean-bottom pressure measurements offshore thus make it possible to determine fault parameters of moderate-sized earthquakes in subduction zones using open-ocean tsunami waveforms. Published by Elsevier Science B. V.

An Indication of Anisotropy in Arrival Directions of Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays through Comparison to the Flux Pattern of Extragalactic Gamma-Ray Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aab, A.; Abreu, P.; Aglietta, M.

A new analysis of the dataset from the Pierre Auger Observatory provides evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays on an intermediate angular scale, which is indicative of excess arrivals from strong, nearby sources. The data consist of 5514 events above 20 EeV with zenith angles up to 80 deg recorded before 2017 April 30. Sky models have been created for two distinct populations of extragalactic gamma-ray emitters: active galactic nuclei from the second catalog of hard Fermi-LAT sources (2FHL) and starburst galaxies from a sample that was examined with Fermi-LAT. Flux-limited samples, which include allmore » types of galaxies from the Swift-BAT and 2MASS surveys, have been investigated for comparison. The sky model of cosmic-ray density constructed using each catalog has two free parameters, the fraction of events correlating with astrophysical objects and an angular scale characterizing the clustering of cosmic rays around extragalactic sources. A maximum-likelihood ratio test is used to evaluate the best values of these parameters and to quantify the strength of each model by contrast with isotropy. It is found that the starburst model fits the data better than the hypothesis of isotropy with a statistical significance of 4.0 sigma, the highest value of the test statistic being for energies above 39 EeV. The three alternative models are favored against isotropy with 2.7-3.2 sigma significance. The origin of the indicated deviation from isotropy is examined and prospects for more sensitive future studies are discussed.« less

Novel scheme for rapid parallel parameter estimation of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankow, C.; Brady, P.; Ochsner, E.; O'Shaughnessy, R.

2015-07-01

We introduce a highly parallelizable architecture for estimating parameters of compact binary coalescence using gravitational-wave data and waveform models. Using a spherical harmonic mode decomposition, the waveform is expressed as a sum over modes that depend on the intrinsic parameters (e.g., masses) with coefficients that depend on the observer dependent extrinsic parameters (e.g., distance, sky position). The data is then prefiltered against those modes, at fixed intrinsic parameters, enabling efficiently evaluation of the likelihood for generic source positions and orientations, independent of waveform length or generation time. We efficiently parallelize our intrinsic space calculation by integrating over all extrinsic parameters using a Monte Carlo integration strategy. Since the waveform generation and prefiltering happens only once, the cost of integration dominates the procedure. Also, we operate hierarchically, using information from existing gravitational-wave searches to identify the regions of parameter space to emphasize in our sampling. As proof of concept and verification of the result, we have implemented this algorithm using standard time-domain waveforms, processing each event in less than one hour on recent computing hardware. For most events we evaluate the marginalized likelihood (evidence) with statistical errors of ≲5 %, and even smaller in many cases. With a bounded runtime independent of the waveform model starting frequency, a nearly unchanged strategy could estimate neutron star (NS)-NS parameters in the 2018 advanced LIGO era. Our algorithm is usable with any noise curve and existing time-domain model at any mass, including some waveforms which are computationally costly to evolve.

The Gaussian Plasma Lens in Astrophysics: Refraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clegg, Andrew W.; Fey, Alan L.; Lazio, T. Joseph W.

1998-03-01

We present the geometrical optics for refraction of a distant background radio source by an interstellar plasma lens, with specific application to a lens with a Gaussian profile of free-electron column density. The refractive properties of the lens are specified completely by a dimensionless parameter α, which is a function of the wavelength of observation, the free-electron column density through the lens, the lens-observer distance, and the diameter of the lens transverse to the line of sight. A lens passing between the observer and a background source, due to the relative motions of the observer, lens, and source, produces modulations in the light curve of the background source. Because plasma lenses are diverging, the light curve displays a minimum in the background source's flux density, formed when the lens is on-axis, surrounded by enhancements above the nominal (unlensed) flux density. The exact form of the light curve depends only upon the parameter α and the relative angular sizes of the source and lens as seen by the observer. Other effects due to lensing include the following: (1) the formation of caustic surfaces, upon which the apparent brightness of the background source becomes very large; (2) the possible creation of multiple images of the background source; and (3) angular position wander of the background source. If caustics are formed, the separation of the outer caustics can be used to constrain α, while the separation of the inner caustics can constrain the size of the lens. We apply our analysis to two sources, which have undergone extreme scattering events: (1) 0954+658, a source for which we can identify multiple caustics in its light curve, and (2) 1741-038, for which polarization observations were obtained during and after the scattering event. We find general agreement between modeled and observed light curves at 2.25 GHz, but poor agreement at 8.1 GHz. The discrepancies between the modeled and observed light curves may result from some combination of substructure within the lens, an anisotropic lens shape, a lens which only grazes the source rather than passing completely over it, or unresolved substructure within the extragalactic sources. Our analysis also allows us to place constraints on the physical characteristics of the lens. The inferred properties of the lens responsible for the scattering event toward 0954+658 (1741-038) are that it was 0.38 AU (0.065 AU) in diameter with a peak column density of 0.24 pc cm-3 (10-4 pc cm-3), an electron density within the lens of 105 cm-3 (300 cm-3), and a mass of 6.5 × 10-14 M⊙ (10-18 M⊙). The angular position wander caused by the lens was 250 mas (0.4 mas) at 2.25 GHz. In the case of 1741-038, we can place an upper limit of only 100 mG on the magnetic field within the lens.

The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

2017-12-01

On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just offshore of northern Cuba posing a potential hazard to Florida and the Bahamas.

Lattice Boltzmann modeling to explain volcano acoustic source.

PubMed

Brogi, Federico; Ripepe, Maurizio; Bonadonna, Costanza

2018-06-22

Acoustic pressure is largely used to monitor explosive activity at volcanoes and has become one of the most promising technique to monitor volcanoes also at large scale. However, no clear relation between the fluid dynamics of explosive eruptions and the associated acoustic signals has yet been defined. Linear acoustic has been applied to derive source parameters in the case of strong explosive eruptions which are well-known to be driven by large overpressure of the magmatic fluids. Asymmetric acoustic waveforms are generally considered as the evidence for supersonic explosive dynamics also for small explosive regimes. We have used Lattice-Boltzmann modeling of the eruptive fluid dynamics to analyse the acoustic wavefield produced by different flow regimes. We demonstrate that acoustic waveform well reproduces the flow dynamics of a subsonic fluid injection related to discrete explosive events. Different volumetric flow rate, at low-Mach regimes, can explain both the observed symmetric and asymmetric waveform. Hence, asymmetric waveforms are not necessarily related to the shock/supersonic fluid dynamics of the source. As a result, we highlight an ambiguity in the general interpretation of volcano acoustic signals for the retrieval of key eruption source parameters, necessary for a reliable volcanic hazard assessment.

Source Spectra and Site Response for Two Indonesian Earthquakes: the Tasikmalaya and Kerinci Events of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, I.; Cummins, P. R.; Ghasemi, H.; Suhardjono, S.

2012-12-01

Indonesia is very prone to natural disasters, especially earthquakes, due to its location in a tectonically active region. In September-October 2009 alone, intraslab and crustal earthquakes caused the deaths of thousands of people, severe infrastructure destruction and considerable economic loss. Thus, both intraslab and crustal earthquakes are important sources of earthquake hazard in Indonesia. Analysis of response spectra for these intraslab and crustal earthquakes are needed to yield more detail about earthquake properties. For both types of earthquakes, we have analysed available Indonesian seismic waveform data to constrain source and path parameters - i.e., low frequency spectral level, Q, and corner frequency - at reference stations that appear to be little influenced by site response.. We have considered these analyses for the main shocks as well as several aftershocks. We obtain corner frequencies that are reasonably consistent with the constant stress drop hypothesis. Using these results, we consider using them to extract information about site response form other stations form the Indonesian strong motion network that appear to be strongly affected by site response. Such site response data, as well as earthquake source parameters, are important for assessing earthquake hazard in Indonesia.

An analysis of variables influencing the number of radiation overexposure events in Texas from 1970 to 2000.

PubMed

Emery, R J; Valizadeh, F; Kennedy, V; Shelton, A J

2005-07-01

Sources of radiation are used in a variety of modern work settings, including industrial, medical, research, and agricultural applications. Although regulatory controls exist to limit radiation exposures in these different settings, instances of radiation doses in excess of acceptable limits (referred to as overexposures) do occur. A unique study examined overexposure events in Texas over a 45-y period from 1956 to 2001. The primary purpose of the study was to characterize the factors associated with overexposure events. As part of this characterization, an interesting trend in the number of overexposures by year was observed, but not completely explained. The data revealed a dramatic increase in the number of overexposure events, followed by three apparent phases of decline. These declines are of particular interest because, while the increase and subsequent decrease in overexposures occurred, the number of permits to possess radiation sources in Texas generally increased over the same time period. This study focused on the identification of the factors that led to the trends in overexposure events. Data describing the reported overexposure events in Texas from 1970 to 2000 were obtained from the Texas Department of Health Bureau of Radiation Control (TDH BRC) and entered into a computerized database. With the assistance of senior members of the TDH BRC, the three primary factors influencing the number of overexposures were identified. These included domestic oil and gas exploration and production from 1970 to 2000, wherein sources of radiation are employed in various operations; the establishment of a training and certification requirement for industrial radiographers during the period of 1986 to 1988; and modification of the applicable regulations between 1992 and 1994. The generally accepted indicator of oil and gas exploration and production activity, known as "rig count," is the measure of the number of active oil and gas exploration and production platforms at any given time. Rig count is a parameter of particular interest in Texas because the state's economy is significantly tied to the market value of this important natural resource. The rig count parameter was shown to have a strong correlation with overexposure events (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.82, p < 0.0001). Interestingly, the sources causing the overexposures indicate that the events stem primarily not from the oil and gas exploration activity itself, but rather from support activities in the form of industrial radiographic procedures. The number of overexposure events was also determined to be influenced by the imposition of the training requirement for radiographers and the modification of the applicable regulations (e.g., the elimination of the quarterly dose limit). The relative magnitude of these influences, however, was far overshadowed by the identified predominant predictor of rig count. The determination of rig count as the significant influencing factor in overexposure events is useful in possibly recognizing the potential for future occurrences of the same nature. This assessment also serves to highlight an apparent significant public health success story, as the number of overexposures per radioactive material licensee is shown to have declined significantly over the 30-y period of study. The factors contributing to this phenomenon are described to serve as a model for use in other settings.

Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

An Innovative Software Tool Suite for Power Plant Model Validation and Parameter Calibration using PMU Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuanyuan; Diao, Ruisheng; Huang, Renke

Maintaining good quality of power plant stability models is of critical importance to ensure the secure and economic operation and planning of today’s power grid with its increasing stochastic and dynamic behavior. According to North American Electric Reliability (NERC) standards, all generators in North America with capacities larger than 10 MVA are required to validate their models every five years. Validation is quite costly and can significantly affect the revenue of generator owners, because the traditional staged testing requires generators to be taken offline. Over the past few years, validating and calibrating parameters using online measurements including phasor measurement unitsmore » (PMUs) and digital fault recorders (DFRs) has been proven to be a cost-effective approach. In this paper, an innovative open-source tool suite is presented for validating power plant models using PPMV tool, identifying bad parameters with trajectory sensitivity analysis, and finally calibrating parameters using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based algorithm. The architectural design and the detailed procedures to run the tool suite are presented, with results of test on a realistic hydro power plant using PMU measurements for 12 different events. The calibrated parameters of machine, exciter, governor and PSS models demonstrate much better performance than the original models for all the events and show the robustness of the proposed calibration algorithm.« less

Determination of source parameters of the 2017 Mount Agung volcanic earthquake from moment-tensor inversion method using local broadband seismic waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madlazim; Prastowo, T.; Supardiyono; Hardy, T.

2018-03-01

Monitoring of volcanoes has been an important issue for many purposes, particularly hazard mitigation. With regard to this, the aims of the present work are to estimate and analyse source parameters of a volcanic earthquake driven by recent magmatic events of Mount Agung in Bali island that occurred on September 28, 2017. The broadband seismogram data consisting of 3 local component waveforms were recorded by the IA network of 5 seismic stations: SRBI, DNP, BYJI, JAGI, and TWSI (managed by BMKG). These land-based observatories covered a full 4-quadrant region surrounding the epicenter. The methods used in the present study were seismic moment-tensor inversions, where the data were all analyzed to extract the parameters, namely moment magnitude, type of a volcanic earthquake indicated by percentages of seismic components: compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD), isotropic (ISO), double-couple (DC), and source depth. The results are given in the forms of variance reduction of 65%, a magnitude of M W 3.6, a CLVD of 40%, an ISO of 33%, a DC of 27% and a centroid-depth of 9.7 km. These suggest that the unusual earthquake was dominated by a vertical CLVD component, implying the dominance of uplift motion of magmatic fluid flow inside the volcano.

Assessment of teleseismically-determined source parameters for the April 25, 2015 MW 7.9 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake and the May 12, 2015 MW 7.2 aftershock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Thorne; Ye, Lingling; Koper, Keith D.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2017-09-01

On April 25, 2015 a major (MW 7.9) thrust earthquake ruptured the deeper portion of the seismogenic plate boundary beneath Nepal along which India is underthrusting Eurasia. An MW 7.2 aftershock on May 12, 2015 extended the eastern, down-dip edge of the rupture. These destructive events caused about 9000 fatalities and 23,000 injuries. The overall rupture zone is about 170 km long and 40-80 km wide. This region of the plate boundary previously experienced a large earthquake in 1833, and in 1934 a larger MS 8.0 event located to the east ruptured all the way to the surface. The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) on which slip occurred in 2015 has a very low dip angle of 6°, and the depth of the mainshock slip distribution is very shallow, extending from 7 to 18 km. The shallow dip and depth present challenges for resolving faulting characteristics using teleseismic data. We analyze global teleseismic signals for the mainshock and aftershock to estimate source parameters, evaluating the stability of various procedures used for remotely characterizing kinematics of such shallow faulting. Back-projection and finite-fault slip inversion are used to assess the spatio-temporal rupture history and evidence for frequency-dependent radiation along dip. Slip zone width constraints from near-field geodetic observations are imposed on the preferred models to overcome some limitations of purely teleseismic methods. Radiated energy, stress drop and moment rate functions are determined for both events.

Analysis of exceptionally large tremors in two gold mining districts of South Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Bicknell, J.; Sembera, E.; Green, R.W.E.

1989-01-01

An investigation of ground motion, recorded using broad-band, wide dynamic-range digital seismographs, of large mine tremors from two South African mining districts with different geologic settings, reveals some essential differences in both seismic source and ground motion parameters. In the Klerksdorp district where the strata are offset by major throughgoing normal faults, the largest tremors, with magnitudes ranging as high as 5.2, tend to be associated with slip on these pre-existing faults. Moreover, the seismic source and ground motion parameters are quite similar to those of natural crustal earthquakes. In the Carletonville district, by contrast, where substantial faults do not exist, the large-magnitude tremors appear to result from the failure of relatively intact rock and cause seismic stress drops and ground motion parameters higher than normally observed for natural shocks. Additionally, there appears to be an upper magnitude limit of about 4 in the Carletonville district. Detailed analyses of an exceptionally large event recorded locally from each of these districts serve to highlight these contrasts. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

The necessity of recognizing all events in X-ray detection.

PubMed

Papp, T; Maxwell, J A; Papp, A T

2010-01-01

In our work in studying properties of inner shell ionization, we are troubled that the experimental data used to determine the basic parameters of X-ray physics have a large and unexplainable scatter. As we looked into the problems we found that many of them contradict simple logic, elemental arithmetic, even parity and angular momentum conservation laws. We have identified that the main source of the problems, other than the human factor, is rooted in the signal processing electronics. To overcome these problems we have developed a fully digital signal processor, which not only has excellent resolution and line shape, but also allows proper accounting of all events. This is achieved by processing all events and separating them into two or more spectra (maximum 16), where the first spectrum is the accepted or good spectrum and the second spectrum is the spectrum of all rejected events. The availability of all the events allows one to see the other part of the spectrum. To our surprise the total information explains many of the shortcomings and contradictions of the X-ray database. The data processing methodology cannot be established on the partial and fractional information offered by other approaches. Comparing Monte Carlo detector modeling results with the partial spectra is ambiguous. It suggests that the metrology of calibration by radioactive sources as well as other X-ray measurements could be improved by the availability of the proper accounting of all events. It is not enough to know that an event was rejected and increment the input counter, it is necessary to know, what was rejected and why it happened, whether it was a noise or a disturbed event, a retarded event or a true event, or any pile up combination of these events. Such information is supplied by our processor reporting the events rejected by each discriminator in separate spectra. Several industrial applications of this quality assurance capable signal processor are presented. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence: surface effects, fault model and triggering scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Pavlides, Spyros; Papathanassiou, George; Sboras, Sotiris; Valkaniotis, Sotiris; Georgiadis, George

2017-04-01

The results of fieldwork performed during the 2016 earthquake sequence around the karstic basins of Norcia and La Piana di Castelluccio, at an altitude of 1400 m, on the Monte Vettore (altitude 2476 m) and Vettoretto, as well as the three mapped seismogenic faults, striking NNW-SSW, are presented in this paper. Surface co-seismic ruptures were observed in the Vettore and Vettoretto segment of the fault for several kilometres ( 7 km) in the August earthquakes at high altitudes, and were re-activated and expanded northwards during the October earthquakes. Coseismic ruptures and the neotectonic Mt. Vettore fault zone were modelled in detail using images acquired from specifically planned UAV (drone) flights. Ruptures, typically with displacement of up to 20 cm, were observed after the August event both in the scree and weathered mantle (elluvium), as well as the bedrock, consisting mainly of fragmented carbonate rocks with small tectonic surfaces. These fractures expanded and new ones formed during the October events, typically of displacements of up to 50 cm, although locally higher displacements of up to almost 2 m were observed. Hundreds of rock falls and landslides were mapped through satellite imagery, using pre- and post- earthquake Sentinel 2A images. Several of them were also verified in the field. Based on field mapping results and seismological information, the causative faults were modelled. The model consists of five seismogenic sources, each one associated with a strong event in the sequence. The visualisation of the seismogenic sources follows INGV's DISS standards for the Individual Seismogenic Sources (ISS) layer, while strike, dip and rake of the seismic sources are obtained from selected focal mechanisms. Based on this model, the ground deformation pattern was inferred, using Okada's dislocation solution formulae, which shows that the maximum calculated vertical displacement is 0.53 m. This is in good agreement with the statistical analysis of the observed surface rupture displacement. Stress transfer analysis was also performed in the five modelled seismogenic sources, using seismologically defined parameters. The resulting stress transfer pattern, based on the sequence of events, shows that the causative fault of each event was influenced by loading from the previous ones.

High-resolution stable isotope signature of a land-falling atmospheric river in Southern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yongbiao; Sodemann, Harald

2017-04-01

Gathering observational evidence of the long-range moisture versus local source contributions remains a scientific challenge, but is critical for understanding how hydrological extremes develop. Moisture transport to the west coast of Norway is often connected to elongated meridional structures of high water vapour flux known as Atmospheric Rivers. It is still an open question how well moisture sources estimated by different numerical models for such events of long-range transport correspond with reality. In this study, we present high resolution stable isotope information collected during a land-falling Atmospheric River in Southern Norway during winter 2016, and analyse the data with the aim to differentiate between moisture source signatures and below-cloud processes affecting the stable isotope composition. The precipitation characterised by a pronounced warm front was sampled manually on a rooftop platform at a 10-20 minute interval during the 24h of the event and later measured by a laser spectrometer (Picarro L2140-i) in the lab for δ18O, δD, and d-excess. Simultaneously, the stable isotope composition of water vapor was continuously measured at high resolution. To that end, ambient air was continuously pumped from a nearby inlet at 25 m above the ground and measured by another laser spectrometer (Picarro L2130-i). Stable water isotope measurements were supplemented by detailed precipitation parameters from a laser disdrometer (OTT Parsivel2), Micro Rain Radar (MRR-2), Total Precipitation Sensor (TPS-3100), and a nearby weather station. Measurements show a signature of two depletion periods in the main stable isotope parameters that are not apparent in precipitation amount and atmospheric temperature measurements. The deuterium excess in rainfall responds differently, with first and increase and then a decrease during these depletion periods. We interpret this as a combined consequence of airmass change, cloud microphysics, and below-cloud effects. Moisture sources identified during the atmospheric river event show a clear transition that points to the need to constrain this kind of analysis by additional stable water isotope observations en route and upstream.

Acoustic emission monitoring of tensile testing of corroded and un-corroded clad aluminum 2024-T3 and characterization of effects of corrosion on AE source events and material tensile properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okafor, A. Chukwujekwu; Natarajan, Shridhar

2014-02-01

Corrosion damage affects structural integrity and deteriorates material properties of aluminum alloys in aircraft structures. Acoustic Emission (AE) is an effective nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique for monitoring such damages and predicting failure in large structures of an aircraft. For successful interpretation of data from AE monitoring, sources of AE and factors affecting it need to be identified. This paper presents results of AE monitoring of tensile testing of corroded and un-corroded clad Aluminum 2024-T3 test specimens, and characterization of the effects of strain-rate and corrosion damage on material tensile properties and AE source events. Effect of corrosion was studied by inducing corrosion in the test specimens by accelerated corrosion testing in a Q-Fog accelerated corrosion chamber for 12 weeks. Eight (8) masked dog-bone shaped specimens were placed in the accelerated corrosion chamber at the beginning of the test. Two (2) dog-bone shaped specimens were removed from the corrosion chamber after exposure time of 3, 6, 9, and 12 weeks respectively, and subjected to tension testing till specimen failure along with AE monitoring, as well as two (2) reference samples not exposed to corrosion. Material tensile properties (yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, toughness, and elongation) obtained from tension test and AE parameters obtained from AE monitoring were analyzed and characterized. AE parameters increase with increase in exposure period of the specimens in the corrosive environment. Aluminum 2024-T3 is an acoustically silent material during tensile deformation without any damage. Acoustic emission events increase with increase of corrosion damage and with increase in strain rate above a certain value. Thus AE is suitable for structural health monitoring of corrosion damage. Ultimate tensile strength, toughness and elongation values decrease with increase of exposure period in corrosion chamber.

Moment tensor inversions using strong motion waveforms of Taiwan TSMIP data, 1993–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chang, Kaiwen; Chi, Wu-Cheng; Gung, Yuancheng; Dreger, Douglas; Lee, William H K.; Chiu, Hung-Chie

2011-01-01

Earthquake source parameters are important for earthquake studies and seismic hazard assessment. Moment tensors are among the most important earthquake source parameters, and are now routinely derived using modern broadband seismic networks around the world. Similar waveform inversion techniques can also apply to other available data, including strong-motion seismograms. Strong-motion waveforms are also broadband, and recorded in many regions since the 1980s. Thus, strong-motion data can be used to augment moment tensor catalogs with a much larger dataset than that available from the high-gain, broadband seismic networks. However, a systematic comparison between the moment tensors derived from strong motion waveforms and high-gain broadband waveforms has not been available. In this study, we inverted the source mechanisms of Taiwan earthquakes between 1993 and 2009 by using the regional moment tensor inversion method using digital data from several hundred stations in the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP). By testing different velocity models and filter passbands, we were able to successfully derive moment tensor solutions for 107 earthquakes of Mw >= 4.8. The solutions for large events agree well with other available moment tensor catalogs derived from local and global broadband networks. However, for Mw = 5.0 or smaller events, we consistently over estimated the moment magnitudes by 0.5 to 1.0. We have tested accelerograms, and velocity waveforms integrated from accelerograms for the inversions, and found the results are similar. In addition, we used part of the catalogs to study important seismogenic structures in the area near Meishan Taiwan which was the site of a very damaging earthquake a century ago, and found that the structures were dominated by events with complex right-lateral strike-slip faulting during the recent decade. The procedures developed from this study may be applied to other strong-motion datasets to compliment or fill gaps in catalogs from regional broadband networks and teleseismic networks.

Using a pseudo-dynamic source inversion approach to improve earthquake source imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Clinton, J. F.

2014-12-01

Imaging a high-resolution spatio-temporal slip distribution of an earthquake rupture is a core research goal in seismology. In general we expect to obtain a higher quality source image by improving the observational input data (e.g. using more higher quality near-source stations). However, recent studies show that increasing the surface station density alone does not significantly improve source inversion results (Custodio et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 2014). We introduce correlation structures between the kinematic source parameters: slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity (Song et al. 2009; Song and Dalguer 2013) in the non-linear source inversion. The correlation structures are physical constraints derived from rupture dynamics that effectively regularize the model space and may improve source imaging. We name this approach pseudo-dynamic source inversion. We investigate the effectiveness of this pseudo-dynamic source inversion method by inverting low frequency velocity waveforms from a synthetic dynamic rupture model of a buried vertical strike-slip event (Mw 6.5) in a homogeneous half space. In the inversion, we use a genetic algorithm in a Bayesian framework (Moneli et al. 2008), and a dynamically consistent regularized Yoffe function (Tinti, et al. 2005) was used for a single-window slip velocity function. We search for local rupture velocity directly in the inversion, and calculate the rupture time using a ray-tracing technique. We implement both auto- and cross-correlation of slip, rupture velocity, and peak slip velocity in the prior distribution. Our results suggest that kinematic source model estimates capture the major features of the target dynamic model. The estimated rupture velocity closely matches the target distribution from the dynamic rupture model, and the derived rupture time is smoother than the one we searched directly. By implementing both auto- and cross-correlation of kinematic source parameters, in comparison to traditional smoothing constraints, we are in effect regularizing the model space in a more physics-based manner without loosing resolution of the source image. Further investigation is needed to tune the related parameters of pseudo-dynamic source inversion and relative weighting between the prior and the likelihood function in the Bayesian inversion.

Long Period (LP) volcanic earthquake source location at Merapi volcano by using dense array technics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metaxian, Jean Philippe; Budi Santoso, Agus; Laurin, Antoine; Subandriyo, Subandriyo; Widyoyudo, Wiku; Arshab, Ghofar

2015-04-01

Since 2010, Merapi shows unusual activity compared to last decades. Powerful phreatic explosions are observed; some of them are preceded by LP signals. In the literature, LP seismicity is thought to be originated within the fluid, and therefore to be representative of the pressurization state of the volcano plumbing system. Another model suggests that LP events are caused by slow, quasi-brittle, low stress-drop failure driven by transient upper-edifice deformations. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of LP events is fundamental for better understanding the physical processes occurring in the conduit, as well as for the monitoring and the improvement of eruption forecasting. LP events recorded at Merapi have a spectral content dominated by frequencies between 0.8 and 3 Hz. To locate the source of these events, we installed a seismic antenna composed of 4 broadband CMG-6TD Güralp stations. This network has an aperture of 300 m. It is located on the site of Pasarbubar, between 500 and 800 m from the crater rim. Two multi-parameter stations (seismic, tiltmeter, S-P) located in the same area, equipped with broadband CMG-40T Güralp sensors may also be used to complete the data of the antenna. The source of LP events is located by using different approaches. In the first one, we used a method based on the measurement of the time delays between the early beginnings of LP events for each array receiver. The observed differences of time delays obtained for each pair of receivers are compared to theoretical values calculated from the travel times computed between grid nodes, which are positioned in the structure, and each receiver. In a second approach, we estimate the slowness vector by using MUSIC algorithm applied to 3-components data. From the slowness vector, we deduce the back-azimuth and the incident angle, which give an estimation of LP source depth in the conduit. This work is part of the Domerapi project funded by French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (https://sites.google.com/site/domerapi2).

GLOBAL ENERGETICS OF SOLAR FLARES. IV. CORONAL MASS EJECTION ENERGETICS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aschwanden, Markus J., E-mail: aschwanden@lmsal.com

2016-11-01

This study entails the fourth part of a global flare energetics project, in which the mass m {sub cme}, kinetic energy E {sub kin}, and the gravitational potential energy E {sub grav} of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is measured in 399 M and X-class flare events observed during the first 3.5 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission, using a new method based on the EUV dimming effect. EUV dimming is modeled in terms of a radial adiabatic expansion process, which is fitted to the observed evolution of the total emission measure of the CME source region. The modelmore » derives the evolution of the mean electron density, the emission measure, the bulk plasma expansion velocity, the mass, and the energy in the CME source region. The EUV dimming method is truly complementary to the Thomson scattering method in white light, which probes the CME evolution in the heliosphere at r ≳ 2 R {sub ⊙}, while the EUV dimming method tracks the CME launch in the corona. We compare the CME parameters obtained in white light with the LASCO/C2 coronagraph with those obtained from EUV dimming with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the SDO for all identical events in both data sets. We investigate correlations between CME parameters, the relative timing with flare parameters, frequency occurrence distributions, and the energy partition between magnetic, thermal, nonthermal, and CME energies. CME energies are found to be systematically lower than the dissipated magnetic energies, which is consistent with a magnetic origin of CMEs.« less

Seismic‐wave attenuation determined from tectonic tremor in multiple subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yabe, Suguru; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Ide, Satoshi; Beroza, Gregory C.

2014-01-01

Tectonic tremor provides a new source of observations that can be used to constrain the seismic attenuation parameter for ground‐motion prediction and hazard mapping. Traditionally, recorded earthquakes of magnitude ∼3–8 are used to develop ground‐motion prediction equations; however, typical earthquake records may be sparse in areas of high hazard. In this study, we constrain the distance decay of seismic waves using measurements of the amplitude decay of tectonic tremor, which is plentiful in some regions. Tectonic tremor occurs in the frequency band of interest for ground‐motion prediction (i.e., ∼2–8  Hz) and is located on the subducting plate interface, at the lower boundary of where future large earthquakes are expected. We empirically fit the distance decay of peak ground velocity from tremor to determine the attenuation parameter in four subduction zones: Nankai, Japan; Cascadia, United States–Canada; Jalisco, Mexico; and southern Chile. With the large amount of data available from tremor, we show that in the upper plate, the lower crust is less attenuating than the upper crust. We apply the same analysis to intraslab events in Nankai and show the possibility that waves traveling from deeper intraslab events experience more attenuation than those from the shallower tremor due to ray paths that pass through the subducting and highly attenuating oceanic crust. This suggests that high pore‐fluid pressure is present in the tremor source region. These differences imply that the attenuation parameter determined from intraslab earthquakes may underestimate ground motion for future large earthquakes on the plate interface.

Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dziewonski, A. M.; Chou, T.-A.; Woodhouse, J. H.

1981-04-01

It is possible to use the waveform data not only to derive the source mechanism of an earthquake but also to establish the hypocentral coordinates of the `best point source' (the centroid of the stress glut density) at a given frequency. Thus two classical problems of seismology are combined into a single procedure. Given an estimate of the origin time, epicentral coordinates and depth, an initial moment tensor is derived using one of the variations of the method described in detail by Gilbert and Dziewonski (1975). This set of parameters represents the starting values for an iterative procedure in which perturbations to the elements of the moment tensor are found simultaneously with changes in the hypocentral parameters. In general, the method is stable, and convergence rapid. Although the approach is a general one, we present it here in the context of the analysis of long-period body wave data recorded by the instruments of the SRO and ASRO digital network. It appears that the upper magnitude limit of earthquakes that can be processed using this particular approach is between 7.5 and 8.0; the lower limit is, at this time, approximately 5.5, but it could be extended by broadening the passband of the analysis to include energy with periods shorter that 45 s. As there are hundreds of earthquakes each year with magnitudes exceeding 5.5, the seismic source mechanism can now be studied in detail not only for major events but also, for example, for aftershock series. We have investigated the foreshock and several aftershocks of the Sumba earthquake of August 19, 1977; the results show temporal variation of the stress regime in the fault area of the main shock. An area some 150 km to the northwest of the epicenter of the main event became seismically active 49 days later. The sense of the strike-slip mechanism of these events is consistent with the relaxation of the compressive stress in the plate north of the Java trench. Another geophysically interesting result of our analysis is that for 5 out of 11 earthquakes of intermediate and great depth the intermediate principal value of the moment tensor is significant, while for the remaining 6 it is essentially zero, which means that their mechanisms are consistent with a simple double-couple representation. There is clear distinction between these two groups of earthquakes.

How sensitive is earthquake ground motion to source parameters? Insights from a numerical study in the Mygdonian basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaljub, Emmanuel; Maufroy, Emeline; deMartin, Florent; Hollender, Fabrice; Guyonnet-Benaize, Cédric; Manakou, Maria; Savvaidis, Alexandros; Kiratzi, Anastasia; Roumelioti, Zaferia; Theodoulidis, Nikos

2014-05-01

Understanding the origin of the variability of earthquake ground motion is critical for seismic hazard assessment. Here we present the results of a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of earthquake ground motion to seismic source parameters, focusing on the Mygdonian basin near Thessaloniki (Greece). We use an extended model of the basin (65 km [EW] x 50 km [NS]) which has been elaborated during the Euroseistest Verification and Validation Project. The numerical simulations are performed with two independent codes, both implementing the Spectral Element Method. They rely on a robust, semi-automated, mesh design strategy together with a simple homogenization procedure to define a smooth velocity model of the basin. Our simulations are accurate up to 4 Hz, and include the effects of surface topography and of intrinsic attenuation. Two kinds of simulations are performed: (1) direct simulations of the surface ground motion for real regional events having various back azimuth with respect to the center of the basin; (2) reciprocity-based calculations where the ground motion due to 980 different seismic sources is computed at a few stations in the basin. In the reciprocity-based calculations, we consider epicentral distances varying from 2.5 km to 40 km, source depths from 1 km to 15 km and we span the range of possible back-azimuths with a 10 degree bin. We will present some results showing (1) the sensitivity of ground motion parameters to the location and focal mechanism of the seismic sources; and (2) the variability of the amplification caused by site effects, as measured by standard spectral ratios, to the source characteristics

Energy-to-Moment ratios for Deep Earthquakes: No evidence for scofflaws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saloor, N.; Okal, E. A.

2015-12-01

Energy-to-moment ratios can provide information on the distribution of seismic source spectrum between high and low frequencies, and thus identify anomalous events (either "slow" or "snappy") whose source violates seismic scaling laws, the former characteristic of the so-called tsunami earthquakes (e.g., Mentawai, 2010), the latter featuring enhanced acceleration and destruction (e.g., Christchurch, 2011). We extend to deep earthquakes the concept of the slowness paramete, Θ=log10EE/M0, introduced by Newman and Okal [1998], where the estimated energy EE is computed for an average focal mechanism and depth (in the range 300-690 km). We find that only minor modifications of the algorithm are necessary to adapt it to deep earthquakes. The analysis of a dataset of 160 deep earthquakes from the past 30 years show that these events scale with an average Θ=-4.34±0.31, corresponding to slightly greater strain release than for their shallow counterparts. However, the most important result to date is that we have not found any "outliers", i.e., violating this trend by one or more logarithmic units, as was the case for the slow events at shallow depths. This indicates that the processes responsible for such variations in energy distribution in the source spectrum of shallow earthquakes, are absent from their deep counterparts, suggesting, perhaps not unexpectedly, that the deep seismogenic zones feature more homogeneous properties than shallow ones. This includes the large event of 30 May 2015 below the Bonin Islands (Θ=-4.13), which took place both deeper than, and oceanwards of, the otherwise documented Wadati-Benioff Zone.

Sublimation rates of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide from comet nuclei at large distances from the Sun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Zdenek

1991-01-01

One of the more attractive among the plausible scenarios for the major emission event recently observed on Comet Halley at a heliocentric distance of 14.3 AU is activation of a source of ejecta driven by an icy substance much more volatile than water. As prerequisite for the forthcoming detailed analysis of the imaging observations of this event, a simple model is proposed that yields the sublimation rate versus time at any location on the surface of a rotating cometary nucleus for two candidate ices: carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. The model's variable parameters are the comet's heliocentric distance r and the Sun's instantaneous zenith angle z.

REXPO: A catchment model designed to understand and simulate the loss dynamics of plant protection products and biocides from agricultural and urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittmer, I. K.; Bader, H.-P.; Scheidegger, R.; Stamm, C.

2016-02-01

During rain events, biocides and plant protection products are transported from agricultural fields but also from urban sources to surface waters. Originally designed to be biologically active, these compounds may harm organisms in aquatic ecosystems. Although several models allow either urban or agricultural storm events to be predicted, only few combine these two sources, and none of them include biocide losses from building envelopes. This study therefore aims to develop a model designed to predict water and substance flows from urban and agricultural sources to surface waters. We developed a model based on physical principles for water percolation and substance flow including micro- (also called matrix-) and macropore-flows for the agricultural areas together with a model representing sources, sewer systems and a wastewater treatment plant for urban areas. In a second step, the combined model was applied to a catchment where an extensive field study had been conducted. The modelled and measured discharge and compound results corresponded reasonably well in terms of quantity and dynamics. The total cumulative discharge was only slightly lower than the total measured discharge (factor 0.94). The total modelled losses of the agriculturally used herbicide atrazine were slightly lower (∼25%) than the measured losses when the soil pore water distribution coefficient (describing the partition between soil particles and pore water) (Kd) was kept constant and slightly higher if it was increased with time. The modelled urban losses of diuron from facades were within a factor of three with respect to the measured values. The results highlighted the change in importance of the flow components during a rain event from urban sources during the most intensive rain period towards agricultural ones over a prolonged time period. Applications to two other catchments, one neighbouring and one on another continent showed that the model can be applied using site specific data for land use, pesticide application, weather and literature data for soil related parameters such as saturated water content, hydraulic conductivity or lateral distances of the drainage pipes without any further calibration of parameters. This is a promising basis for using the model in a wide range of catchments.

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Larry G.; Guffanti, Marianne C.; Servranckx, R.; Webley, P.; Barsotti, S.; Dean, K.; Durant, A.; Ewert, John W.; Neri, A.; Rose, W.I.; Schneider, David J.; Siebert, L.; Stunder, B.; Swanson, G.; Tupper, A.; Volentik, A.; Waythomas, Christopher F.

2009-01-01

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m63 of erupted debris finer than about 4ϕ or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m63 could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions (∼ 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's ∼ 1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.

Broadband Analysis of the Energetics of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Sunda Forearc from 1987-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Hayes, G. P.

2013-12-01

In the eighteen years before the 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.1 earthquake, the forearc off Sumatra experienced only one large (Mw > 7.0) thrust event and experienced no earthquakes that generated measurable tsunami wave heights. In the subsequent eight years, twelve large thrust earthquakes occurred of which half generated measurable tsunamis. The number of broadband earthquakes (those events with Mw > 5.5 for which broadband teleseismic waveforms have sufficient signal to compute depths, focal mechanisms, moments and radiated energies) jumped six fold after 2004. The progression of tsunami earthquakes, as well as the profuse increase in broadband activity, strongly suggests regional stress adjustments following the Sumatra 2004 megathrust earthquake. Broadband source parameters, published routinely in the Source Parameters (SOPAR) database of the USGS's NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center), have provided the most accurate depths and locations of big earthquakes since the implementation of modern digital seismographic networks. Moreover, radiated energy and seismic moment (also found in SOPAR) are related to apparent stress which is a measure of fault maturity. In mapping apparent stress as a function of depth and focal mechanism, we find that about 12% of broadband thrust earthquakes in the subduction zone are unequivocally above or below the slab interface. Apparent stresses of upper-plate events are associated with failure on mature splay faults, some of which generated measurable tsunamis. One unconventional source for local wave heights was a large intraslab earthquake. High-energy upper-plate events, which are dominant in the Aceh Basin, are associated with immature faults, which may explain why the region was bypassed by significant rupture during the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The majority of broadband earthquakes are non-randomly concentrated under the outer-arc high. They appear to delineate the periphery of the contiguous rupture zones of large earthquakes. A not uncommon occurrence at the outer-arc high is that of a large (Mw >7.0) earthquake followed by another event, also of large magnitude, in very close spatial (<50 km) proximity within a short time (days to months). The physical separation between these events provides constraints on the nature of barriers to rupture propagation. Some of the glaring disparities in seismic damage and tsunami excitation for earthquakes with the same magnitude can be attributed to differences between rupture properties landward and seaward of the outer-arc high. Although most of the studied broadband earthquakes occurred in the wake of the Sumatra 2004 megathrust event, they illuminate tectonic features that exert a strong influence on rupture growth and extent. The application of broadband analysis to other island arcs will complement current criteria for evaluating seismic and tsunami potential

Source parameters and tectonic interpretation of recent earthquakes (1995 1997) in the Pannonian basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Horváth, Frank; Tóth, László

2001-01-01

From January 1995 to December 1997, about 74 earthquakes were located in the Pannonian basin and digitally recorded by a recently established network of seismological stations in Hungary. On reviewing the notable events, about 12 earthquakes were reported as felt with maximum intensity varying between 4 and 6 MSK. The dynamic source parameters of these earthquakes have been derived from P-wave displacement spectra. The displacement source spectra obtained are characterised by relatively small values of corner frequency ( f0) ranging between 2.5 and 10 Hz. The seismic moments change from 1.48×10 20 to 1.3×10 23 dyne cm, stress drops from 0.25 to 76.75 bar, fault length from 0.42 to 1.7 km and relative displacement from 0.05 to 15.35 cm. The estimated source parameters suggest a good agreement with the scaling law for small earthquakes. The small values of stress drops in the studied earthquakes can be attributed to the low strength of crustal materials in the Pannonian basin. However, the values of stress drops are not different for earthquake with thrust or normal faulting focal mechanism solutions. It can be speculated that an increase of the seismic activity in the Pannonian basin can be predicted in the long run because extensional development ceased and structural inversion is in progress. Seismic hazard assessment is a delicate job due to the inadequate knowledge of the seismo-active faults, particularly in the interior part of the Pannonian basin.

Earthquake Source Parameters Inferred from T-Wave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrot, J.; Dziak, R.; Lau, T. A.; Matsumoto, H.; Goslin, J.

2004-12-01

The seismicity of the North Atlantic Ocean has been recorded by two networks of autonomous hydrophones moored within the SOFAR channel on the flanks of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). In February 1999, a consortium of U.S. investigators (NSF and NOAA) deployed a 6-element hydrophone array for long-term monitoring of MAR seismicity between 15o-35oN south of the Azores. In May 2002, an international collaboration of French, Portuguese, and U.S. researchers deployed a 6-element hydrophone array north of the Azores Plateau from 40o-50oN. The northern network (referred to as SIRENA) was recovered in September 2003. The low attenuation properties of the SOFAR channel for earthquake T-wave propagation results in a detection threshold reduction from a magnitude completeness level (Mc) of ˜ 4.7 for MAR events recorded by the land-based seismic networks to Mc=3.0 using hydrophone arrays. Detailed focal depth and mechanism information, however, remain elusive due to the complexities of seismo-acoustic propagation paths. Nonetheless, recent analyses (Dziak, 2001; Park and Odom, 2001) indicate fault parameter information is contained within the T-wave signal packet. We investigate this relationship further by comparing an earthquake's T-wave duration and acoustic energy to seismic magnitude (NEIC) and radiation pattern (for events M>5) from the Harvard moment-tensor catalog. First results show earthquake energy is well represented by the acoustic energy of the T-waves, however T-wave codas are significantly influenced by acoustic propagation effects and do not allow a direct determination of the seismic magnitude of the earthquakes. Second, there appears to be a correlation between T-wave acoustic energy, azimuth from earthquake source to the hydrophone, and the radiation pattern of the earthquake's SH waves. These preliminary results indicate there is a relationship between the T-wave observations and earthquake source parameters, allowing for additional insights into T-wave propagation.

Real time monitoring of induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs, Upper Rhine Graben, using the new SeisComP3 cross-correlation detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasterling, Margarete; Wegler, Ulrich; Bruestle, Andrea; Becker, Jan

2016-04-01

Real time information on the locations and magnitudes of induced earthquakes is essential for response plans based on the magnitude frequency distribution. We developed and tested a real time cross-correlation detector focusing on induced microseismicity in deep geothermal reservoirs. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real time with a set of known master events. We use the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves to account for small changes in the source locations or in the focal mechanisms. Two different detection conditions are implemented: After first passing a single trace correlation condition, secondly a network correlation is calculated taking the amplitude information of the seismic network into account. The magnitude is estimated by using the respective ratio of the maximum amplitudes of the master event and the detected event. The detector is implemented as a real time tool and put into practice as a SeisComp3 module, an established open source software for seismological real time data handling and analysis. We validated the reliability and robustness of the detector by an offline playback test using four month of data from monitoring the power plant in Insheim (Upper Rhine Graben, SW Germany). Subsequently, in October 2013 the detector was installed as real time monitoring system within the project "MAGS2 - Microseismic Activity of Geothermal Systems". Master events from the two neighboring geothermal power plants in Insheim and Landau and two nearby quarries are defined. After detection, manual phase determination and event location are performed at the local seismological survey of the Geological Survey and Mining Authority of Rhineland-Palatinate. Until November 2015 the detector identified 454 events out of which 95% were assigned correctly to the respective source. 5% were misdetections caused by local tectonic events. To evaluate the completeness of the automatically obtained catalogue, it is compared to the event catalogue of the Seismological Service of Southwestern Germany and to the events reported by the company tasked with seismic monitoring of the Insheim power plant. Events missed by the cross-correlation detector are generally very small. They are registered at too few stations to meet the detection criteria. Most of these small events were not locatable. The automatic catalogue has a magnitude of completeness around 0.0 and is significantly more detailed than the catalogue from standard processing of the Seismological Service of Southwestern Germany for this region. For events in the magnitude range of the master event the magnitude estimated from the amplitude ratio reproduces the local magnitude well. For weaker events there tends to be a small offset. Altogether, the developed real time cross correlation detector provides robust detections with reliable association of the events to the respective sources and valid magnitude estimates. Thus, it provides input parameters for the mitigation of seismic hazard by using response plans in real time.

Comparison of actual and seismologically inferred stress drops in dynamic models of microseismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. Y.; Lapusta, N.

2017-12-01

Estimating source parameters for small earthquakes is commonly based on either Brune or Madariaga source models. These models assume circular rupture that starts from the center of a fault and spreads axisymmetrically with a constant rupture speed. The resulting stress drops are moment-independent, with large scatter. However, more complex source behaviors are commonly discovered by finite-fault inversions for both large and small earthquakes, including directivity, heterogeneous slip, and non-circular shapes. Recent studies (Noda, Lapusta, and Kanamori, GJI, 2013; Kaneko and Shearer, GJI, 2014; JGR, 2015) have shown that slip heterogeneity and directivity can result in large discrepancies between the actual and estimated stress drops. We explore the relation between the actual and seismologically estimated stress drops for several types of numerically produced microearthquakes. For example, an asperity-type circular fault patch with increasing normal stress towards the middle of the patch, surrounded by a creeping region, is a potentially common microseismicity source. In such models, a number of events rupture the portion of the patch near its circumference, producing ring-like ruptures, before a patch-spanning event occurs. We calculate the far-field synthetic waveforms for our simulated sources and estimate their spectral properties. The distribution of corner frequencies over the focal sphere is markedly different for the ring-like sources compared to the Madariaga model. Furthermore, most waveforms for the ring-like sources are better fitted by a high-frequency fall-off rate different from the commonly assumed value of 2 (from the so-called omega-squared model), with the average value over the focal sphere being 1.5. The application of Brune- or Madariaga-type analysis to these sources results in the stress drops estimates different from the actual stress drops by a factor of up to 125 in the models we considered. We will report on our current studies of other types of seismic sources, such as repeating earthquakes and foreshock-like events, and whether the potentially realistic and common sources different from the standard Brune and Madariaga models can be identified from their focal spectral signatures and studied using a more tailored seismological analysis.

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Determining the sensitivity of the amplitude source location (ASL) method through active seismic sources: An example from Te Maari Volcano, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Braden; Jolly, Arthur; Procter, Jonathan

2017-04-01

Using active seismic sources on Tongariro Volcano, New Zealand, the amplitude source location (ASL) method is calibrated and optimized through a series of sensitivity tests. By applying a geologic medium velocity of 1500 m/s and an attenuation value of Q=60 for surface waves along with amplification factors computed from regional earthquakes, the ASL produced location discrepancies larger than 1.0 km horizontally and up to 0.5 km in depth. Through the use of sensitivity tests on input parameters, we show that velocity and attenuation models have moderate to strong influences on the location results, but can be easily constrained. Changes in locations are accommodated through either lateral or depth movements. Station corrections (amplification factors) and station geometry strongly affect the ASL locations laterally, horizontally and in depth. Calibrating the amplification factors through the exploitation of the active seismic source events reduced location errors for the sources by up to 50%.

Ground-Motion Variability for a Strike-Slip Earthquake from Broadband Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwaki, A.; Maeda, T.; Morikawa, N.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

One of the important issues in seismic hazard analysis is the evaluation of ground-motion variability due to the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in various aspects of ground-motion simulations. This study investigates the within-event ground-motion variability in broadband ground-motion simulations for strike-slip events. We conduct ground-motion simulations for a past event (2000 MW6.6 Tottori earthquake) using a set of characterized source models (e.g. Irikura and Miyake, 2011) considering aleatory variability. Broadband ground motion is computed by a hybrid approach that combines a 3D finite-difference method (> 1 s) and the stochastic Green's function method (< 1 s), using the 3D velocity model J-SHIS v2. We consider various locations of the asperities, which are defined as the regions with large slip and stress drop within the fault, and the rupture nucleation point (hypocenter). Ground motion records at 29 K-NET and KiK-net stations are used to validate our simulations. By comparing the simulated and observed ground motion, we found that the performance of the simulations is acceptable under the condition that the source parameters are poorly constrained. In addition to the observation stations, we set 318 virtual receivers with the spatial intervals of 10 km for statistical analysis of the simulated ground motion. The maximum fault-distance is 160 km. Standard deviation (SD) of the simulated acceleration response spectra (Sa, 5% damped) of RotD50 component (Boore, 2010) is investigated at each receiver. SD from 50 different patterns of asperity locations is generally smaller than 0.15 in terms of log10 (0.34 in natural log). It shows dependence on distance at periods shorter than 1 s; SD increases as the distance decreases. On the other hand, SD from 39 different hypocenter locations is again smaller than 0.15 in log10, and showed azimuthal dependence at long periods; it increases as the rupture directivity parameter Xcosθ(Somerville et al. 1997) increases at periods longer than 1 s. The characteristics of ground-motion variability inferred from simulations can provide information on variability in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment for future earthquakes. We will further investigate the variability in other source parameters; rupture velocity and short-period level.

Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

2016-12-01

Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

Cometary spliting - a source for the Jupiter family?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittich, E. M.; Rickman, H.

1994-01-01

The quest for the origin of the Jupiter family of comets includes investigating the possibility that a large fraction of this population originates from past splitting events. In particular, one suggested scenario, albeit less attractive on physical grounds, maintains that a giant comet breakup is a major source of short-period comets. By simulating such events and integrating the motions of the fictitious fragments in an accurate solar system model for the typical lifetime of Jupiter family comets, it is possible to check whether the outcome may or may not be compatible with the observed orbital distribution. In this paper we present such integrations for a few typical progenitor orbits and analyze the ensuing thermalization process with particular attention to the Tisserand parameters. It is found that the sets of fragments lose their memory of a common origin very rapidly so that, in general terms, it is difficult to use the random appearance of the observed orbital distribution as evidence against the giant comet splitting hypothesis.

Pulling Results Out of Thin Air: Four Years of Ozone and Greenhouse Gas Measurements by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric Experiment (AJAX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yates, Emma

2015-01-01

The Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) has been measuring atmospheric ozone, carbon dioxide, methane and meteorological parameters from near the surface to 8000 m since January 2011. The main goals are to study photochemical ozone production and the impacts of extreme events on western US air quality, provide data to support satellite observations and aid in the quantification of emission sources e.g. wildfires, urban outflow, diary and oil and gas. The aircraft is based at Moffett Field and flies multiple times a month to sample vertical profiles at selected sites in California and Nevada, providing long-term data records at these sites. AJAX is also uniquely positioned to launch with short notice sampling flights in rapid response to extreme events e.g. the 2013 Yosemite Rim fire. This talk will focus on the impacts of vertical transport on surface air quality, and investigation of emission sources from diaries and wildfires.

Improving Energy Efficiency for the Vehicle Assembly Industry: A Discrete Event Simulation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oumer, Abduaziz; Mekbib Atnaw, Samson; Kie Cheng, Jack; Singh, Lakveer

2016-11-01

This paper presented a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model for investigating and improving energy efficiency in vehicle assembly line. The car manufacturing industry is one of the highest energy consuming industries. Using Rockwell Arena DES package; a detailed model was constructed for an actual vehicle assembly plant. The sources of energy considered in this research are electricity and fuel; which are the two main types of energy sources used in a typical vehicle assembly plant. The model depicts the performance measurement for process- specific energy measures of painting, welding, and assembling processes. Sound energy efficiency model within this industry has two-fold advantage: reducing CO2 emission and cost reduction associated with fuel and electricity consumption. The paper starts with an overview of challenges in energy consumption within the facilities of automotive assembly line and highlights the parameters for energy efficiency. The results of the simulation model indicated improvements for energy saving objectives and reduced costs.

Large-Scale Aspects and Temporal Evolution of Pulsating Aurora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, S. L.; Lessard, M. R.; Rychert, K.; Spanswick, E.; Donovan, E.

2010-01-01

Pulsating aurora is a common phenomenon generally believed to occur mainly in the aftermath of a, substorm, where dim long-period pulsating patches appear. The study determines the temporal and spatial evolution of pulsating events using two THEN IIIS ASI stations, at Gillam (66.18 mlat, 332.78 mlon, magnetic midnight at 0634 UT) and Fort Smith, (67.38 mlat, 306.64 mlon, magnetic midnight at, 0806 UT) along roughly the same invariant latitude. Parameters have been calculated from a database of 74 pulsating aurora events from 119 days of good optical data within the period from September 2007 through March 2008 as identified with the Gillam camera. It is shown that the source region of pulsating aurora drifts or expands eastward, away from magnetic midnight, for pre-midnight onsets and that the spatial evolution is more complicated for post midnight onsets, which has implications for the source mechanism. The most probable duration of a pulsating aurora event is roughly 1.5 hours while the distribution of possible event durations includes many long (several hours) events. This may suggest that pulsating aurora is not strictly a substorm recovery phase phenomenon but rather a persistent, long-lived phenomenon that may be temporarily disrupted by auroral substorms. Observations from the Gillam station show that in fact, pulsating aurora is quite common with the occurrence rate increasing to around 60% for morning hours, with 6910 of pulsating aurora onsets occurring after substorm breakup.

VHDL implementation of feature-extraction algorithm for the PANDA electromagnetic calorimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guliyev, E.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Lemmens, P. J. J.; Tambave, G.; Löhner, H.; Panda Collaboration

2012-02-01

A simple, efficient, and robust feature-extraction algorithm, developed for the digital front-end electronics of the electromagnetic calorimeter of the PANDA spectrometer at FAIR, Darmstadt, is implemented in VHDL for a commercial 16 bit 100 MHz sampling ADC. The source-code is available as an open-source project and is adaptable for other projects and sampling ADCs. Best performance with different types of signal sources can be achieved through flexible parameter selection. The on-line data-processing in FPGA enables to construct an almost dead-time free data acquisition system which is successfully evaluated as a first step towards building a complete trigger-less readout chain. Prototype setups are studied to determine the dead-time of the implemented algorithm, the rate of false triggering, timing performance, and event correlations.

Eruptive Source Parameters from Near-Source Gravity Waves Induced by Large Vulcanian eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barfucci, Giulia; Ripepe, Maurizio; De Angelis, Silvio; Lacanna, Giorgio; Marchetti, Emanuele

2016-04-01

The sudden ejection of hot material from volcanic vent perturbs the atmosphere generating a broad spectrum of pressure oscillations from acoustic infrasound (<10 Hz) to gravity waves (<0.03 Hz). However observations of gravity waves excited by volcanic eruptions are still rare, mostly limited to large sub-plinian eruptions and frequently at large distance from the source (>100 km). Atmospheric Gravity waves are induced by perturbations of the hydrostatic equilibrium of the atmosphere and propagate within a medium with internal density stratification. They are initiated by mechanisms that cause the atmosphere to be displaced as for the injection of volcanic ash plume during an eruption. We use gravity waves to infer eruptive source parameters, such as mass eruption rate (MER) and duration of the eruption, which may be used as inputs in the volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. We present the analysis of near-field observations (<7 km) of atmospheric gravity waves, with frequencies of 0.97 and 1.15 mHz, recorded by a pressure sensors network during two explosions in July and December 2008 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show that gravity waves at Soufrière Hills Volcano originate above the volcanic dome and propagate with an apparent horizontal velocities of 8-10 m/s. Assuming a single mass injection point source model, we constrain the source location at ~3.5 km a.s.l., above the vent, duration of the gas thrust < 140 s and MERs of 2.6 and 5.4 x10E7 kg/s, for the two eruptive events. Source duration and MER derived by modeling Gravity Waves are fully compatible with others independent estimates from field observations. Our work strongly supports the use of gravity waves to model eruption source parameters and can have a strong impact on our ability to monitor volcanic eruption at a large distance and may have future application in assessing the relative magnitude of volcanic explosions.

Source Analysis of Bucaramanga Nest Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto, G. A.; Pedraza, P.; Dionicio, V.; Levander, A.

2016-12-01

Intermediate-depth earthquakes are those that occur at depths of 50 to 300 km in subducting lithosphere and can occasionally be destructive. Despite their ubiquity in earthquake catalogs, their physical mechanism remains unclear because ambient temperatures and pressures at such depths are expected to lead to ductile flow, rather than brittle failure, as a response to stress. Intermediate-depth seismicity rates vary substantially worldwide, even within a single subduction zone having highly clustered seismicity in some cases (Vrancea, Hindu-Kush, etc.). One such places in known as the Bucaramanga Nest (BN), one of the highest concentration of intermediate-depth earthquakes in the world. Previous work on these earthquakes has shown 1) Focal mechanisms vary substantially within a very small volume. 2) Radiation efficiency is small for M<5 events. 3) repeating and reverse polarity events are present. 4) Larger events show a complex behavior with two distinct rupture stages. Due to on-going efforts by the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC) to densify the national seismic network, it is now possible to better constrain the rupture behavior of these events. In our work we will present results from focal mechanisms based on waveform inversion as well as polarity and S/P amplitude ratios. These results will be contrasted to the detection and classification of repeating families. For the larger events we will determine source parameters and radiation efficiencies. Preliminary results show that reverse polarity events are present and that two main focal mechanisms, with their corresponding reverse polarity events are dominant. Our results have significant implications in our understanding of intermedaite-depth earthquakes and the stress conditions that are responsible for this unusual cluster of seismicity.

Could a multi-PeV neutrino event have as origin the internal shocks inside the GRB progenitor star?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraija, N.

2016-03-01

The IceCube Collaboration initially reported the detection of 37 extraterrestrial neutrinos in the TeV-PeV energy range. The reconstructed neutrino events were obtained during three consecutive years of data taking, from 2010 to 2013. Although these events have been discussed to have an extragalactic origin, they have not been correlated to any known source. Recently, the IceCube Collaboration reported a neutrino-induced muon event with energy of 2.6 ± 0.3 PeV which corresponds to the highest event ever detected. Neither the reconstructed direction of this event (J2000.0), detected on June 11 2014 at R.A. = 110 ° . 34, Dec. = 11 ° . 48 matches with any familiar source. Long gamma-ray bursts (lGRBs) are usually associated with the core collapse of massive stars leading relativistic-collimated jets inside stars with high-energy neutrino production. These neutrinos have been linked to the 37 events previously detected by IceCube experiment. In this work, we explore the conditions and values of parameters so that the highest neutrino recently detected could be generated by proton-photon and proton-hadron interactions at internal shocks inside lGRB progenitor star and then detected in IceCube experiment. Considering that internal shocks take place in a relativistic collimated jet, whose (half) opening angle is θ0 ∼ 0.1, we found that lGRBs with total luminosity L ≲1048 erg/s and internal shocks on the surface of progenitors such as Wolf-Rayet (WR) and blue super giant (BSG) stars favor this multi-PeV neutrino production, although this neutrino could be associated with L ∼1050.5 (∼1050) erg/s provided that the internal shocks occur at ∼109 (∼1010.2) cm for a WR (BSG).

The spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm as a real-time early warning proxy for detecting faecal pollution events at alpine karst water resources.

PubMed

Stadler, H; Klock, E; Skritek, P; Mach, R L; Zerobin, W; Farnleitner, A H

2010-01-01

Because spring water quality from alpine karst aquifers can change very rapidly during event situations, water abstraction management has to be performed in near real-time. Four summer events (2005-2008) at alpine karst springs were investigated in detail in order to evaluate the spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm (SAC254) as a real-time early warning proxy for faecal pollution. For the investigation Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) Satellite-based data communication between portable hydrometeorological measuring stations and an automated microbiological sampling device was used. The method for event triggered microbial sampling and analyzing was already established and described in a previous paper. Data analysis including on-line event characterisation (i.e. precipitation, discharge, turbidity, SAC254) and comprehensive E. coli determination (n>800) indicated that SAC254 is a useful early warning proxy. Irrespective of the studied event situations SAC254 always increased 3 to 6 hours earlier than the onset of faecal pollution, featuring different correlation phases. Furthermore, it seems also possible to use SAC254 as a real-time proxy parameter for estimating the extent of faecal pollution after establishing specific spring and event-type calibrations that take into consideration the variability of the occurrence and the transferability of faecal material It should be highlighted that diffuse faecal pollution from wildlife and live stock sources was responsible for spring water contamination at the investigated catchments. In this respect, the SAC254 can also provide useful information to support microbial source tracking efforts where different situations of infiltration have to be investigated.

Parameter Prediction of Hydraulic Fracture for Tight Reservoir Based on Micro-Seismic and History Matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Ma, Xiaopeng; Li, Yanlai; Wu, Haiyang; Cui, Chenyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Hao; Yao, Jun

Hydraulic fracturing is an important measure for the development of tight reservoirs. In order to describe the distribution of hydraulic fractures, micro-seismic diagnostic was introduced into petroleum fields. Micro-seismic events may reveal important information about static characteristics of hydraulic fracturing. However, this method is limited to reflect the distribution area of the hydraulic fractures and fails to provide specific parameters. Therefore, micro-seismic technology is integrated with history matching to predict the hydraulic fracture parameters in this paper. Micro-seismic source location is used to describe the basic shape of hydraulic fractures. After that, secondary modeling is considered to calibrate the parameters information of hydraulic fractures by using DFM (discrete fracture model) and history matching method. In consideration of fractal feature of hydraulic fracture, fractal fracture network model is established to evaluate this method in numerical experiment. The results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to estimate the parameters of hydraulic fractures.

On the Reliability of Source Time Functions Estimated Using Empirical Green's Function Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallegos, A. C.; Xie, J.; Suarez Salas, L.

2017-12-01

The Empirical Green's Function (EGF) method (Hartzell, 1978) has been widely used to extract source time functions (STFs). In this method, seismograms generated by collocated events with different magnitudes are deconvolved. Under a fundamental assumption that the STF of the small event is a delta function, the deconvolved Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) yields the large event's STF. While this assumption can be empirically justified by examination of differences in event size and frequency content of the seismograms, there can be a lack of rigorous justification of the assumption. In practice, a small event might have a finite duration when the RSTF is retrieved and interpreted as the large event STF with a bias. In this study, we rigorously analyze this bias using synthetic waveforms generated by convolving a realistic Green's function waveform with pairs of finite-duration triangular or parabolic STFs. The RSTFs are found using a time-domain based matrix deconvolution. We find when the STFs of smaller events are finite, the RSTFs are a series of narrow non-physical spikes. Interpreting these RSTFs as a series of high-frequency source radiations would be very misleading. The only reliable and unambiguous information we can retrieve from these RSTFs is the difference in durations and the moment ratio of the two STFs. We can apply a Tikhonov smoothing to obtain a single-pulse RSTF, but its duration is dependent on the choice of weighting, which may be subjective. We then test the Multi-Channel Deconvolution (MCD) method (Plourde & Bostock, 2017) which assumes that both STFs have finite durations to be solved for. A concern about the MCD method is that the number of unknown parameters is larger, which would tend to make the problem rank-deficient. Because the kernel matrix is dependent on the STFs to be solved for under a positivity constraint, we can only estimate the rank-deficiency with a semi-empirical approach. Based on the results so far, we find that the rank-deficiency makes it improbable to solve for both STFs. To solve for the larger STF we need to assume the shape of the small STF to be known a priori. Thus, the reliability of the estimated large STF depends on the difference between the assumed and true shapes of the small STF. We will show how the reliability varies with realistic scenarios.

Single ICMEs and Complex Transient Structures in the Solar Wind in 2010 - 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodkin, D.; Slemzin, V.; Zhukov, A. N.; Goryaev, F.; Shugay, Y.; Veselovsky, I.

2018-05-01

We analyze the statistics, solar sources, and properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the solar wind. The total number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) registered in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops catalog (CDAW) during the first eight years of Cycle 24 was 61% larger than in the same period of Cycle 23, but the number of X-ray flares registered by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) was 20 % smaller because the solar activity was lower. The total number of ICMEs in the given period of Cycle 24 in the Richardson and Cane list was 29% smaller than in Cycle 23, which may be explained by a noticeable number of non-classified ICME-like events in the beginning of Cycle 24. For the period January 2010 - August 2011, we identify solar sources of the ICMEs that are included in the Richardson and Cane list. The solar sources of ICME were determined from coronagraph observations of the Earth-directed CMEs, supplemented by modeling of their propagation in the heliosphere using kinematic models (a ballistic and drag-based model). A detailed analysis of the ICME solar sources in the period under study showed that in 11 cases out of 23 (48%), the observed ICME could be associated with two or more sources. For multiple-source events, the resulting solar wind disturbances can be described as complex (merged) structures that are caused by stream interactions, with properties depending on the type of the participating streams. As a reliable marker to identify interacting streams and their sources, we used the plasma ion composition because it freezes in the low corona and remains unchanged in the heliosphere. According to the ion composition signatures, we classify these cases into three types: complex ejecta originating from weak and strong CME-CME interactions, as well as merged interaction regions (MIRs) originating from the CME high-speed stream (HSS) interactions. We describe temporal profiles of the ion composition for the single-source and multi-source solar wind structures and compared them with the ICME signatures determined from the kinematic and magnetic field parameters of the solar wind. In single-source events, the ion charge state, as a rule, has a one-peak enhancement with an average duration of about one day, which is similar to the mean ICME duration of 1.12 days derived from the Richardson and Cane list. In the multi-source events, the total profile of the ion charge state consists of a sequence of enhancements that is associated with the interaction between the participating streams. On average, the total duration of the complex structures that appear as a result of the CME-CME and CME-HSS interactions as determined from their ion composition is 2.4 days, which is more than twice longer than that of the single-source events.

Non-stationary least-squares complex decomposition for microseismic noise attenuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yangkang

2018-06-01

Microseismic data processing and imaging are crucial for subsurface real-time monitoring during hydraulic fracturing process. Unlike the active-source seismic events or large-scale earthquake events, the microseismic event is usually of very small magnitude, which makes its detection challenging. The biggest trouble of microseismic data is the low signal-to-noise ratio issue. Because of the small energy difference between effective microseismic signal and ambient noise, the effective signals are usually buried in strong random noise. I propose a useful microseismic denoising algorithm that is based on decomposing a microseismic trace into an ensemble of components using least-squares inversion. Based on the predictive property of useful microseismic event along the time direction, the random noise can be filtered out via least-squares fitting of multiple damping exponential components. The method is flexible and almost automated since the only parameter needed to be defined is a decomposition number. I use some synthetic and real data examples to demonstrate the potential of the algorithm in processing complicated microseismic data sets.

Development of a process-oriented vulnerability concept for water travel time in karst aquifers-case study of Tanour and Rasoun springs catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina; Margane, Armin; Toll, Mathias

2017-04-01

Key words: Karst aquifer, water travel time, vulnerability assessment, Jordan. The understanding of the groundwater pathways and movement through karst aquifers, and the karst aquifer response to precipitation events especially in the arid to semi-arid areas is fundamental to evaluate pollution risks from point and non-point sources. In spite of the great importance of the karst aquifer for drinking purposes, karst aquifers are highly sensitive to contamination events due to the fast connections between the land-surface and the groundwater (through the karst features) which is makes groundwater quality issues within karst systems very complicated. Within this study, different methods and approaches were developed and applied in order to characterise the karst aquifer system of the Tanour and Rasoun springs (NW-Jordan) and the flow dynamics within the aquifer, and to develop a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on the monitoring of different multi-spatially variable parameters of water travel time in karst aquifer. In general, this study aims to achieve two main objectives: 1. Characterization of the karst aquifer system and flow dynamics. 2. Development of a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on spatially variable parameters of travel time. In order to achieve these aims, different approaches and methods were applied starting from the understanding of the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the karst aquifer and its vulnerability against pollutants, to using different methods, procedures and monitored parameters in order to determine the water travel time within the aquifer and investigate its response to precipitation event and, finally, with the study of the aquifer response to pollution events. The integrated breakthrough signal obtained from the applied methods and procedures including the using of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, the monitoring of multi qualitative and quantitative parameters using automated probes and data loggers, and the development of travel time physics-based vulnerability assessment method shows good agreement as an applicable methods to determine the water travel time in karst aquifers, and to investigate its response to precipitation and pollution events.

Microlensing as a possible probe of event-horizon structure in quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomozeiu, Mihai; Mohammed, Irshad; Rabold, Manuel; Saha, Prasenjit; Wambsganss, Joachim

2018-04-01

In quasars which are lensed by galaxies, the point-like images sometimes show sharp and uncorrelated brightness variations (microlensing). These brightness changes are associated with the innermost region of the quasar passing through a complicated pattern of caustics produced by the stars in the lensing galaxy. In this paper, we study whether the universal properties of optical caustics could enable extraction of shape information about the central engine of quasars. We present a toy model with a crescent-shaped source crossing a fold caustic. The silhouette of a black hole over an accretion disc tends to produce roughly crescent sources. When a crescent-shaped source crosses a fold caustic, the resulting light curve is noticeably different from the case of a circular luminosity profile or Gaussian source. With good enough monitoring data, the crescent parameters, apart from one degeneracy, can be recovered.

Microlensing as a Possible Probe of Event-Horizon Structure in Quasars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomozeiu, Mihai; Mohammed, Irshad; Rabold, Manuel

In quasars which are lensed by galaxies, the point-like images sometimes show sharp and uncorrelated brightness variations (microlensing). These brightness changes are associated with the innermost region of the quasar passing through a complicated pattern of caustics produced by the stars in the lensing galaxy. In this paper, we study whether the universal properties of optical caustics could enable extraction of shape information about the central engine of quasars. We present a toy model with a crescent-shaped source crossing a fold caustic. The silhouette of a black hole over an accretion disk tends to produce roughly crescent sources. When amore » crescent-shaped source crosses a fold caustic, the resulting light curve is noticeably different from the case of a circular luminosity profile or Gaussian source. With good enough monitoring data, the crescent parameters, apart from one degeneracy, can be recovered.« less

Microlensing as a Possible Probe of Event-Horizon Structure in Quasars

DOE PAGES

Tomozeiu, Mihai; Mohammed, Irshad; Rabold, Manuel; ...

2017-12-08

In quasars which are lensed by galaxies, the point-like images sometimes show sharp and uncorrelated brightness variations (microlensing). These brightness changes are associated with the innermost region of the quasar passing through a complicated pattern of caustics produced by the stars in the lensing galaxy. In this paper, we study whether the universal properties of optical caustics could enable extraction of shape information about the central engine of quasars. We present a toy model with a crescent-shaped source crossing a fold caustic. The silhouette of a black hole over an accretion disk tends to produce roughly crescent sources. When amore » crescent-shaped source crosses a fold caustic, the resulting light curve is noticeably different from the case of a circular luminosity profile or Gaussian source. With good enough monitoring data, the crescent parameters, apart from one degeneracy, can be recovered.« less

Seismology of the Oso-Steelhead landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekström, G.

2014-12-01

We carry out a combined analysis of the short- and long-period seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014. The seismic records show that the Oso-Steelhead landslide was not a single slope failure, but a succession of multiple failures distinguished by two major collapses that occurred approximately three minutes apart. The first generated long-period surface waves that were recorded at several proximal stations. We invert these long-period signals for the forces acting at the source, and obtain estimates of the first failure runout and kinematics, as well as its mass after calibration against the mass-center displacement estimated from remote-sensing imagery. Short-period analysis of both events suggests that the source dynamics of the second are more complex than the first. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, by comparing the seismic energy of the short-period waves generated by both events we are able to estimate the volume of the second. Our analysis suggests that the volume of the second failure is about 15-30% of the total landslide volume, which is in agreement with ground observations.

Real-time monitoring of particles, PAH, and CO in an occupied townhouse.

PubMed

Wallace, L

2000-01-01

Beginning in October 1996, indoor and sometimes outdoor air at an occupied house in a suburban area of Virginia has been monitored continuously for particles, PAH, and CO. Two Climet monitors have been used to count particles in six size ranges between 0.3 and > 10 microns, with 1-minute averages being collected every 5 minutes. Two Ecochem PAH monitors have been used to sample for particle-bound PAHs once every minute. Also, two Langan CO monitor-data loggers have measured CO once each minute while logging the PAH data. Two Aethalometers measure black carbon. A single Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) measures ultrafine particles. The pairs of monitors are set up either to provide an indoor/outdoor or an upstairs office/downstairs kitchen comparison. Air exchange is occasionally measured using a Bruel & Kjaer 1302 SF6 monitor, as a parameter necessary for estimating deposition rates for particles and PAH. Results from the first 16 months of monitoring (approximately 10 M observations) include: neighborhood woodburning and morning rush hour traffic are the most important sources of PAH and black carbon outdoors; candles, matches, incense, and frying, sauteeing, broiling, deep-frying, and stir-frying are additional important indoor sources of PM. One citronella candle was an extremely powerful PAH source. Neither woodburning nor vehicles appears to be an important source of particles indoors, but frying, grilling, and sauteeing are extremely strong indoor sources, together with combustion events such as use of matches and candles. Physical movement was an important source of coarse but not fine particles. Use of the gas stove for extended periods of time led to increased CO concentrations--vehicles and woodburning were relatively minor sources in comparison. The gas oven, gas burners, and electric toaster oven were important sources of ultrafine particles (< 0.1 micron). A source-proximity effect was noted with the kitchen monitor reading two to five times higher than the upstairs monitor for particles from kitchen events, while the upstairs monitor often read higher than the kitchen monitor for events caused by physical activity alone.

Testing the anisotropy of the universe using the simulated gravitational wave events from advanced LIGO and Virgo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hai-Nan; Li, Jin; Li, Xin

2018-05-01

The detection of gravitational waves (GWs) provides a powerful tool to constrain the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using GWs as standard sirens in testing the anisotropy of the universe. We consider the GW signals produced by the coalescence of binary black hole systems and simulate hundreds of GW events from the advanced laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatory and Virgo. It is found that the anisotropy of the universe can be tightly constrained if the redshift of the GW source is precisely known. The anisotropic amplitude can be constrained with an accuracy comparable to the Union2.1 complication of type-Ia supernovae if ≳ 400 GW events are observed. As for the preferred direction, ≳ 800 GW events are needed in order to achieve the accuracy of Union2.1. With 800 GW events, the probability of pseudo anisotropic signals with an amplitude comparable to Union2.1 is negligible. These results show that GWs can provide a complementary tool to supernovae in testing the anisotropy of the universe.

FORTE Compact Intra-cloud Discharge Detection parameterized by Peak Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heavner, M. J.; Suszcynsky, D. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Heavner, B. D.; Smith, D. A.

2002-12-01

The Los Alamos Sferic Array (EDOT) has recorded over 3.7 million lightning-related fast electric field change data records during April 1 - August 31, 2001 and 2002. The events were detected by three or more stations, allowing for differential-time-of-arrival location determination. The waveforms are characterized with estimated peak currents as well as by event type. Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs), the VLF/LF signature of Compact Intra-cloud Discharges (CIDs), are generally isolated pulses with identifiable ionospheric reflections, permitting determination of event source altitudes. We briefly review the EDOT characterization of events. The FORTE satellite observes Trans-Ionospheric Pulse Pairs (TIPPs, the VHF satellite signature of CIDs). The subset of coincident EDOT and FORTE CID observations are compared with the total EDOT CID database to characterize the VHF detection efficiency of CIDs. The NBE polarity and altitude are also examined in the context of FORTE TIPP detection. The parameter-dependent detection efficiencies are extrapolated from FORTE orbit to GPS orbit in support of the V-GLASS effort (GPS based global detection of lightning).

An Anatomy of a Seismic Sequence in a Deep Gold Mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibowicz, S. J.

1997-12-01

An unusual swarm-like seismic sequence occurred in April 1993 at the Western Deep Levels gold mine, South Africa. Altogether 199 events with moment magnitude from -0.5 to 3.1 were recorded and located by the mine seismic network. The sequence lasted 12 days and was composed in fact of four main shock-aftershocks sequences, closely following each other in space and time. The events were confined to a volume of rock extending to 670 m in the N-S, 630 m in the E-W, and 390 m in the vertical directions. The first sequence lasted 179 hours and the second only 13 hours, being interrupted by the third sequence which lasted 31 hours, being in turn interrupted by the fourth sequence. The parameter p, describing the rate of occurrence of aftershocks, ranged from 0.7 to 1. The first sequence is characterized by the lowest value of the fractal correlation dimension D = 1.75 and the second by the highest value of D = 2.4, whereas the third and fourth sequences are characterized by the middle value of D = 1.9.¶The corner frequencies of P and S waves are in close proximity and range from 14 to 220 Hz. A display of source parameters as a function of time shows that the four main shocks are most distinctly marked by their source radius. For 46 events a moment tensor inversion was performed. In most cases the double-couple component is dominant, ranging from 60 to 90 percent of the solution. The double-couple solutions correspond to the same number of normal and reverse faults and oblique-slip focal mechanisms. An analysis of space distribution of P, T and B axes reveals that the distribution of B axes is the most regular.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping using a qualitative heuristic method and Flow-R along the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blais-Stevens, A.; Behnia, P.

2016-02-01

This research activity aimed at reducing risk to infrastructure, such as a proposed pipeline route roughly parallel to the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor (YAHC), by filling geoscience knowledge gaps in geohazards. Hence, the Geological Survey of Canada compiled an inventory of landslides including debris flow deposits, which were subsequently used to validate two different debris flow susceptibility models. A qualitative heuristic debris flow susceptibility model was produced for the northern region of the YAHC, from Kluane Lake to the Alaska border, by integrating data layers with assigned weights and class ratings. These were slope angle, slope aspect, surficial geology, plan curvature, and proximity to drainage system. Validation of the model was carried out by calculating a success rate curve which revealed a good correlation with the susceptibility model and the debris flow deposit inventory compiled from air photos, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field verification. In addition, the quantitative Flow-R method was tested in order to define the potential source and debris flow susceptibility for the southern region of Kluane Lake, an area where documented debris flow events have blocked the highway in the past (e.g. 1988). Trial and error calculations were required for this method because there was not detailed information on the debris flows for the YAHC to allow us to define threshold values for some parameters when calculating source areas, spreading, and runout distance. Nevertheless, correlation with known documented events helped define these parameters and produce a map that captures most of the known events and displays debris flow susceptibility in other, usually smaller, steep channels that had not been previously documented.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping using a qualitative heuristic method and Flow-R along the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blais-Stevens, A.; Behnia, P.

2015-05-01

This research activity aimed at reducing risk to infrastructure, such as a proposed pipeline route roughly parallel to the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor (YAHC) by filling geoscience knowledge gaps in geohazards. Hence, the Geological Survey of Canada compiled an inventory of landslides including debris flow deposits, which were subsequently used to validate two different debris flow susceptibility models. A qualitative heuristic debris flow susceptibility model was produced for the northern region of the YAHC, from Kluane Lake to the Alaska border, by integrating data layers with assigned weights and class ratings. These were slope angle, slope aspect (derived from a 5 m × 5 m DEM), surficial geology, permafrost distribution, and proximity to drainage system. Validation of the model was carried out by calculating a success rate curve which revealed a good correlation with the susceptibility model and the debris flow deposit inventory compiled from air photos, high resolution satellite imagery, and field verification. In addition, the quantitative Flow-R method was tested in order to define the potential source and debris flow susceptibility for the southern region of Kluane Lake, an area where documented debris flow events have blocked the highway in the past (e.g., 1988). Trial and error calculations were required for this method because there was not detailed information on the debris flows for the YAHC to allow us to define threshold values for some parameters when calculating source areas, spreading, and runout distance. Nevertheless, correlation with known documented events helped define these parameters and produce a map that captures most of the known events and displays debris flow susceptibility in other, usually smaller, steep channels that had not been previously documented.

The Rupture Characteristic of 1999 Izmit Sequence Using IRIS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konca, A. O.; Helmberger, D. V.; Ji, C.; Tan, Y.

2003-12-01

The standard source studies use teleseismic data (30° to 90° ) to analyze earthquakes. Therefore, only a limited portion of the focal sphere is involved in source determinations. Furthermore, the locations and origin times of events remain incompatible with local determinations. Here, we attempt to resolve such issues by using IRIS data at all distances, leading to more accurate and detailed rupture properties and accurate relative locations. The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence is chosen to test our method. The challenge of using data outside the conventional teleseismic distance range is that the arrival times and waveforms are affected more by the Earth structure. We overcome this difficulty by calibrating the path effects for the mainshock using the simpler aftershocks. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the source parameters of the aftershock. We constructed a Green's function library from a regionalized 1-D model and performed a grid search to establish the depth and fault parameters based on waveform matching for the Pnl waves between the synthetics and data, allowing the synthetics in each station to shift separately to account for the path effect. Our results show that the earthquake depth was around 7 km, rather than 19 km from local observatory (Kandilli) and 15 km from the Harvard's CMT solution. The best focal mechanism has a strike of 263° , a dip of 65° , and a rake of 180° , which is very close to the Harvard's CMT solution. The waveform fits of this aftershock is then used as a criterion to select useful source-station paths. A path with a cross-correlation value above 90% between data and synthetics is defined as a "good path" and can be used for studying the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes. We find that the stations in Central Europe and some of the Greek Islands are "good paths", while the stations in Northeast Africa and Italy cannot be used. The time shifts that give the best cross-correlation values are used to calibrate the picks of the Izmit and Duzce events. We realize that this is a very objective way to pick arrival times. However, our preliminary inversions using teleseismic data for Duzce and Izmit events show that handpicked P and S arrival times of the same station from two very close events are not always well correlated. Obviously, how we pick the arrival time governs the rupture pattern and rupture velocity. Therefore, our methodology brings a more objective approach to pick the travel times. To the end, we will invert for the source history of the Duzce and Izmit earthquakes with the regional data and compare with the inversion result using teleseismic data. Moreover, predictions of the teleseismic data, using the solution from the inversion using regional phases will be presented.

Mechanical and statistical evidence of the causality of human-made mass shifts on the Earth's upper crust and the occurrence of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Christian D.

2013-01-01

A global catalog of small- to large-sized earthquakes was systematically analyzed to identify causality and correlatives between human-made mass shifts in the upper Earth's crust and the occurrence of earthquakes. The mass shifts, ranging between 1 kt and 1 Tt, result from large-scale geoengineering operations, including mining, water reservoirs, hydrocarbon production, fluid injection/extractions, deep geothermal energy production and coastal management. This article shows evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between (a) seismic moment magnitudes M of observed earthquakes, (b) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the geoengineering "operation points" and (c) mass removals or accumulations on the Earth's crust. Statistical findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. Statistical observations, however, indicate that every second, seismic event tends to occur after a decade. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after 2 or 20 years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25 or 75 %, respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in which the operations take place (i.e., extensive, transverse or compressive). Results are summarized as follows: First, seismic moment magnitudes increase the more mass is locally shifted on the Earth's crust. Second, seismic moment magnitudes increase the larger the area in the crust is geomechanically polluted. Third, reverse faults tend to be more trigger-sensitive than normal faults due to a stronger alteration of the minimum vertical principal stress component. Pure strike-slip faults seem to rupture randomly and independently from the magnitude of the mass changes. Finally, mainly due to high estimation uncertainties of source parameters and, in particular, of shallow seismic events (<10 km), it remains still very difficult to discriminate between induced and triggered earthquakes with respect to the data catalog of this study. However, first analyses indicate that small- to medium-sized earthquakes (M6) seem to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions.

Low-frequency seismic events in a wider volcanological context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, J. W.; Collombet, M.

2006-12-01

Low-frequency seismic events have been in the centre of attention for several years, particularly on volcanoes with highly viscous magmas. The ultimate aim is to detect changes in volcanic activity by identifying changes in the seismic behaviour in order to forecast an eruption, or in case of an ongoing eruption, forecast the short and longterm behaviour of the volcanic system. A major boost in recent years arose through several attempts of multi-parameter volcanic monitoring and modelling programs, which allowed multi-disciplinary groups of volcanologists to interpret seismic signals together with, e.g. ground deformation, stress field analysis and petrological information. This talk will give several examples of such multi-disciplinary projects, focussing on the joint modelling of seismic source processes for low-frequency events together with advanced magma flow models, and the signs of magma movement in the deformation and stress field at the surface.

From Magma Fracture to a Seismic Magma Flow Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, J. W.

2007-12-01

Seismic swarms of low-frequency events occur during periods of enhanced volcanic activity and have been related to the flow of magma at depth. Often they precede a dome collapse on volcanoes like Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, or Mt St Helens. This contribution is based on the conceptual model of magma rupture as a trigger mechanism. Several source mechanisms and radiation patterns at the focus of a single event are discussed. We investigate the accelerating event rate and seismic amplitudes during one swarm, as well as over a time period of several swarms. The seismic slip vector will be linked to magma flow parameters resulting in estimates of magma flux for a variety of flow models such as plug flow, parabolic- or friction controlled flow. In this way we try to relate conceptual models to quantitative estimations which could lead to estimations of magma flux at depth from seismic low-frequency signals.

Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

DOEpatents

Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

2014-03-18

A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

Model space exploration for determining landslide source history from long period seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Juan; Mangeney, Anne; Stutzmann, Eléonore; Capdeville, Yann; Moretti, Laurent; Calder, Eliza S.; Smith, Patrick J.; Cole, Paul; Le Friant, Anne

2013-04-01

The seismic signals generated by high magnitude landslide events can be recorded at remote stations, which provides access to the landslide process. During the "Boxing Day" eruption at Montserrat in 1997, the long period seismic signals generated by the debris avalanche are recorded by two stations at distances of 450 km and 1261 km. We investigate the landslide process considering that the landslide source can be described by single forces. The period band 25-50 sec is selected for which the landslide signal is clearly visible at the two stations. We first use the transverse component of the closest station to determine the horizontal forces. We model the seismogram by normal mode summation and investigate the model space. Two horizontal forces are found that best fit the data. These two horizontal forces have similar amplitude, but opposite direction and they are separated in time by 70 sec. The radiation pattern of the transverse component does not enable to determine the exact azimuth of these forces. We then model the vertical component of the seismograms which enable to retrieve both the vertical and horizontal forces. Using the parameter previously determined (amplitude ratio and time shift of the 2 horizontal forces), we further investigate the model space and show that a single vertical force together with the 2 horizontal forces enable to fit the data. The complete source time function can be described as follows: a horizontal force toward the opposite direction of the landslide flow is followed 40 sec later by a vertical downward force and 30 more seconds later by a horizontal force toward the direction of the flow. Inverting directly the seismograms in the period band 25-50sec enable to retrieve a source time function that is consistent with the 3 forces determined previously. The source time function in this narrow period band alone does not enable easily to recover the corresponding single forces. This method can be used to determine the source parameters using only 2 distant stations. It is successfully tested also on Mount St. Helens (1980) event which are recorded by more broadband stations.

A new tool for rapid and automatic estimation of earthquake source parameters and generation of seismic bulletins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, Aldo

2016-04-01

RISS S.r.l. is a Spin-off company recently born from the initiative of the research group constituting the Seismology Laboratory of the Department of Physics of the University of Naples Federico II. RISS is an innovative start-up, based on the decade-long experience in earthquake monitoring systems and seismic data analysis of its members and has the major goal to transform the most recent innovations of the scientific research into technological products and prototypes. With this aim, RISS has recently started the development of a new software, which is an elegant solution to manage and analyse seismic data and to create automatic earthquake bulletins. The software has been initially developed to manage data recorded at the ISNet network (Irpinia Seismic Network), which is a network of seismic stations deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The software, however, is fully exportable and can be used to manage data from different networks, with any kind of station geometry or network configuration and is able to provide reliable estimates of earthquake source parameters, whichever is the background seismicity level of the area of interest. Here we present the real-time automated procedures and the analyses performed by the software package, which is essentially a chain of different modules, each of them aimed at the automatic computation of a specific source parameter. The P-wave arrival times are first detected on the real-time streaming of data and then the software performs the phase association and earthquake binding. As soon as an event is automatically detected by the binder, the earthquake location coordinates and the origin time are rapidly estimated, using a probabilistic, non-linear, exploration algorithm. Then, the software is able to automatically provide three different magnitude estimates. First, the local magnitude (Ml) is computed, using the peak-to-peak amplitude of the equivalent Wood-Anderson displacement recordings. The moment magnitude (Mw) is then estimated from the inversion of displacement spectra. The duration magnitude (Md) is rapidly computed, based on a simple and automatic measurement of the seismic wave coda duration. Starting from the magnitude estimates, other relevant pieces of information are also computed, such as the corner frequency, the seismic moment, the source radius and the seismic energy. The ground-shaking maps on a Google map are produced, for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and instrumental intensity (in SHAKEMAP® format), or a plot of the measured peak ground values. Furthermore, based on a specific decisional scheme, the automatic discrimination between local earthquakes occurred within the network and regional/teleseismic events occurred outside the network is performed. Finally, for largest events, if a consistent number of P-wave polarity reading are available, the focal mechanism is also computed. For each event, all of the available pieces of information are stored in a local database and the results of the automatic analyses are published on an interactive web page. "The Bulletin" shows a map with event location and stations, as well as a table listing all the events, with the associated parameters. The catalogue fields are the event ID, the origin date and time, latitude, longitude, depth, Ml, Mw, Md, the number of triggered stations, the S-displacement spectra, and shaking maps. Some of these entries also provide additional information, such as the focal mechanism (when available). The picked traces are uploaded in the database and from the web interface of the Bulletin the traces can be download for more specific analysis. This innovative software represents a smart solution, with a friendly and interactive interface, for high-level analysis of seismic data analysis and it may represent a relevant tool not only for seismologists, but also for non-expert external users who are interested in the seismological data. The software is a valid tool for the automatic analysis of the background seismicity at different time scales and can be a relevant tool for the monitoring of both natural and induced seismicity.

Radio frequency elevator for a pulsed positron beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickmann, Marcel; Mitteneder, Johannes; Kögel, Gottfried; Egger, Werner; Sperr, Peter; Ackermann, Ulrich; Piochacz, Christian; Dollinger, Günther

2016-06-01

An elevator increases the potential energy of a particle beam with respect to ground potential without any alteration of kinetic energy and other beam parameters. This elevator is necessary for the implementation of the Munich Scanning Positron Microscope (SPM) at the intense positron source NEPOMUC at the research reactor FRM II in Munich. The principles of the rf elevator for pure electrostatically guided positrons are described. Measurements of beam quality behind the elevator are reported, which confirm that after the implementation of elevator and SPM at NEPOMUC the SPM can be operated at a considerably improved resolution (~ 0.3 μm) and event rate (~3.7 kHz) compared to the laboratory based β+-source.

Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for earthquakes, volcanic events, and nuclear explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvizuri, Celso R.

We present a catalog of full seismic moment tensors for 63 events from Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia. The events were recorded during 2011-2012 in the PLUTONS seismic array of 24 broadband stations. Most events had magnitudes between 0.5 and 2.0 and did not generate discernible surface waves; the largest event was Mw 2.8. For each event we computed the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and we used first-motion polarity measurements to reduce the number of possible solutions. Each moment tensor solution was obtained using a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors. For each event we show the misfit function in eigenvalue space, represented by a lune. We identify three subsets of the catalog: (1) 6 isotropic events, (2) 5 tensional crack events, and (3) a swarm of 14 events southeast of the volcanic center that appear to be double couples. The occurrence of positively isotropic events is consistent with other published results from volcanic and geothermal regions. Several of these previous results, as well as our results, cannot be interpreted within the context of either an oblique opening crack or a crack-plus-double-couple model. Proper characterization of uncertainties for full moment tensors is critical for distinguishing among physical models of source processes. A seismic moment tensor is a 3x3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of a seismic source. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms for each moment tensor and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M0 for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M0, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or rather the confidence, is then given by the 'confidence curve' P( V), where P(V) is the probability that the true moment tensor for the event lies within the neighborhood of M that has fractional volume V. The area under the confidence curve provides a single, abbreviated 'confidence parameter' for M0. We apply the method to data from events in different regions and tectonic settings: 63 small (M w 4) earthquakes in the southern Alaska subduction zone, and 12 earthquakes and 17 nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site. Characterization of moment tensor uncertainties puts us in better position to discriminate among moment tensor source types and to assign physical processes to the events.

Importance of correlations and fluctuations on the initial source eccentricity in high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alver, B.; Ballintijn, M.; Busza, W.

2008-01-15

In relativistic heavy-ion collisions, anisotropic collective flow is driven, event by event, by the initial eccentricity of the matter created in the nuclear overlap zone. Interpretation of the anisotropic flow data thus requires a detailed understanding of the effective initial source eccentricity of the event sample. In this paper, we investigate various ways of defining this effective eccentricity using the Monte Carlo Glauber (MCG) approach. In particular, we examine the participant eccentricity, which quantifies the eccentricity of the initial source shape by the major axes of the ellipse formed by the interaction points of the participating nucleons. We show thatmore » reasonable variation of the density parameters in the Glauber calculation, as well as variations in how matter production is modeled, do not significantly modify the already established behavior of the participant eccentricity as a function of collision centrality. Focusing on event-by-event fluctuations and correlations of the distributions of participating nucleons, we demonstrate that, depending on the achieved event-plane resolution, fluctuations in the elliptic flow magnitude v{sub 2} lead to most measurements being sensitive to the root-mean-square rather than the mean of the v{sub 2} distribution. Neglecting correlations among participants, we derive analytical expressions for the participant eccentricity cumulants as a function of the number of participating nucleons, N{sub part}, keeping nonnegligible contributions up to O(1/N{sub part}{sup 3}). We find that the derived expressions yield the same results as obtained from mixed-event MCG calculations which remove the correlations stemming from the nuclear collision process. Most importantly, we conclude from the comparison with MCG calculations that the fourth-order participant eccentricity cumulant does not approach the spatial anisotropy obtained assuming a smooth nuclear matter distribution. In particular, for the Cu+Cu system, these quantities deviate from each other by almost a factor of 2 over a wide range in centrality. This deviation reflects the essential role of participant spatial correlations in the interaction of two nuclei.« less

Event terms in the response spectra prediction equation and their deviation due to stress drop variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, H.; Nakano, K.

2015-12-01

We investigated the characteristics of strong ground motions separated from acceleration Fourier spectra and acceleration response spectra of 5% damping calculated from weak and moderate ground motions observed by K-NET, KiK-net, and the JMA Shindokei Network in Japan using the generalized spectral inversion method. The separation method used the outcrop motions at YMGH01 as reference where we extracted site responses due to shallow weathered layers. We include events with JMA magnitude equal to or larger than 4.5 observed from 1996 to 2011. We find that our frequency-dependent Q values are comparable to those of previous studies. From the corner frequencies of Fourier source spectra, we calculate Brune's stress parameters and found a clear magnitude dependence, in which smaller events tend to spread over a wider range while maintaining the same maximum value. We confirm that this is exactly the case for several mainshock-aftershock sequences. The average stress parameters for crustal earthquakes are much smaller than those of subduction zone, which can be explained by their depth dependence. We then compared the strong motion characteristics based on the acceleration response spectra and found that the separated characteristics of strong ground motions are different, especially in the lower frequency range less than 1Hz. These differences comes from the difference between Fourier spectra and response spectra found in the observed data; that is, predominant components in high frequency range of Fourier spectra contribute to increase the response in lower frequency range with small Fourier amplitude because strong high frequency component acts as an impulse to a Single-Degree-of-Freedom system. After the separation of the source terms for 5% damping response spectra we can obtain regression coefficients with respect to the magnitude, which lead to a new GMPE as shown in Fig.1 on the left. Although stress drops for inland earthquakes are 1/7 of the subduction-zone earthquakes, we can see linear regression works quite well. After this linear regression we correlate residuals as a function of Brune's stress parameters of corresponding events as shown in Fig.1 on the right for the case of 1Hz. We found quite good linear correlation, which makes aleatoric uncertainty 40 to 60 % smaller than the original.

Broadband analysis of landslides seismic signal : example of the Oso-Steelhead landslide and other recent events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekstrom, G.

2014-12-01

Landslide failures on the scale of mountains are spectacular, dangerous, and spontaneous, making direct observations hard to obtain. Measurement of their dynamic properties during runout is a high research priority, but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has begun to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now allow: (i) the seismic detection and location of large landslides in near-real-time, even for events in very remote areas that may have remain undetected, such as the 2014 Mt La Perouse supraglacial failure in Alaska; (ii) inversion of long-period waves generated by large landslides to yield an estimate of the forces imparted by the bulk accelerating mass; (iii) inference of the landslide mass, its center-of-mass velocity over time, and its trajectory.Key questions persist, such as: What can the short-period seismic data tell us about the high-frequency impacts taking place within the granular flow and along its boundaries with the underlying bedrock? And how does this seismicity relate to the bulk acceleration of the landslide and the long-period seismicity generated by it?Our recent work on the joint analysis of short- and long-period seismic signals generated by past and recent events, such as the Bingham Canyon Mine and the Oso-Steelhead landslides, provides new insights to tackle these issues. Qualitative comparison between short-period signal features and kinematic parameters inferred from long-period surface wave inversion helps to refine interpretation of the source dynamics and to understand the different mechanisms for the origin of the short-period wave radiation. Our new results also suggest that quantitative relationships can be derived from this joint analysis, in particular between the short-period seismic signal envelope and the inferred momentum of the center-of-mass. In the future, these quantitative relationships may help to constrain and calibrate parameters used in inversion or simulation of long-period waves generated by landslides. Relating the center-of-mass dynamics to the short-period seismic signal might also yield a new means to estimate kinematic parameters for the smaller events that generate too weak long-period seismic waves to allow inversion or simulation of the seismic source.

Contaminant point source localization error estimates as functions of data quantity and model quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Scott K.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

2016-10-01

We develop empirically-grounded error envelopes for localization of a point contamination release event in the saturated zone of a previously uncharacterized heterogeneous aquifer into which a number of plume-intercepting wells have been drilled. We assume that flow direction in the aquifer is known exactly and velocity is known to within a factor of two of our best guess from well observations prior to source identification. Other aquifer and source parameters must be estimated by interpretation of well breakthrough data via the advection-dispersion equation. We employ high performance computing to generate numerous random realizations of aquifer parameters and well locations, simulate well breakthrough data, and then employ unsupervised machine optimization techniques to estimate the most likely spatial (or space-time) location of the source. Tabulating the accuracy of these estimates from the multiple realizations, we relate the size of 90% and 95% confidence envelopes to the data quantity (number of wells) and model quality (fidelity of ADE interpretation model to actual concentrations in a heterogeneous aquifer with channelized flow). We find that for purely spatial localization of the contaminant source, increased data quantities can make up for reduced model quality. For space-time localization, we find similar qualitative behavior, but significantly degraded spatial localization reliability and less improvement from extra data collection. Since the space-time source localization problem is much more challenging, we also tried a multiple-initial-guess optimization strategy. This greatly enhanced performance, but gains from additional data collection remained limited.

Problems encountered with the use of simulation in an attempt to enhance interpretation of a secondary data source in epidemiologic mental health research

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The longitudinal epidemiology of major depressive episodes (MDE) is poorly characterized in most countries. Some potentially relevant data sources may be underutilized because they are not conducive to estimating the most salient epidemiologic parameters. An available data source in Canada provides estimates that are potentially valuable, but that are difficult to apply in clinical or public health practice. For example, weeks depressed in the past year is assessed in this data source whereas episode duration would be of more interest. The goal of this project was to derive, using simulation, more readily interpretable parameter values from the available data. Findings The data source was a Canadian longitudinal study called the National Population Health Survey (NPHS). A simulation model representing the course of depressive episodes was used to reshape estimates deriving from binary and ordinal logistic models (fit to the NPHS data) into equations more capable of informing clinical and public health decisions. Discrete event simulation was used for this purpose. Whereas the intention was to clarify a complex epidemiology, the models themselves needed to become excessively complex in order to provide an accurate description of the data. Conclusions Simulation methods are useful in circumstances where a representation of a real-world system has practical value. In this particular scenario, the usefulness of simulation was limited both by problems with the data source and by inherent complexity of the underlying epidemiology. PMID:20796271

Production of photons in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

DOE PAGES

Jean -Francois Paquet; Denicol, Gabriel S.; Shen, Chun; ...

2016-04-18

In this work it is shown that the use of a hydrodynamical model of heavy-ion collisions which incorporates recent developments, together with updated photon emission rates, greatly improves agreement with both ALICE and PHENIX measurements of direct photons, supporting the idea that thermal photons are the dominant source of direct photon momentum anisotropy. The event-by-event hydrodynamical model uses the impact parameter dependent Glasma model (IP-Glasma) initial states and includes, for the first time, both shear and bulk viscosities, along with second-order couplings between the two viscosities. Furthermore, the effect of both shear and bulk viscosities on the photon rates ismore » studied, and those transport coefficients are shown to have measurable consequences on the photon momentum anisotropy.« less

Petromagnetic Properties In The Naica Mining District, Chihuahua, Mexico: Searching For Source of Mineralization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alva, L.; Gogichaishvili, A.; Urrutia, J.

Ore mineral and host lithologies have been sampled with 89 oriented samples from 14 sites in the Naica District, northern Mexico. Magnetic parameters permit to charac- terise samples: saturation magnetization, density, low- high-temperature magnetic sus- ceptibility, remanence intensity, Koenigsberger ratio, Curie temperature and hystere- sis parameters. Rock magnetic properties are controlled by variations in titanomag- netite content and hydrothermal alteration. Post-mineralization hydrothermal alter- ation seems the major event that affected the minerals and magnetic properties. Curie temperatures are characteristic of titanomagnetites or titanomaghemites. Hysteresis parameters indicate that most samples have pseudo-single domain (PSD) magnetic grains. Alternating filed (AF) demagnetization and isothermal remanence (IRM) ac- quisition both indicate that natural and laboratory remanences are carried by MD-PSD spinels in the host rocks. The trend of NRM intensity vs susceptibility suggests that the carrier of remanent and induced magnetization is the same in all cases (spinels). The Koenigsberger ratio range from 0.05 to 34.04, indicating the presence of MD and PSD magnetic grains. Constraints on the geometry of the intrusive source body devel- oped in the model of the magnetic anomaly are obtained by quantifying the relative contributions of induced and remanent magnetization components.

Direction-Finding Measurements of Heliospheric 2-3 kHz Radio Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurnett, Donald A.

1998-01-01

Using data from the Voyager 1 plasma wave instrument, a series of direction-finding measurements is presented for the intense 1992-93 heliospheric 2- to 3-kHz radio emission event, and several weaker events extending into 1994. Direction-finding measurements can only be obtained during roll maneuvers, which are performed about once every three months. Two parameters can be determined from the roll-induced intensity modulation, the azimuthal direction of arrival (measured around the roll axis), and the modulation index (the peak-to-peak amplitude divided by the peak amplitude). Measurements were made at two frequencies, 1.78 and 3.11 kHz. No roll modulation was observed at 1.78 kHz, which is consistent with an isotropic source at this frequency. In most cases an easily measurable roll modulation was detectable at 3.11 kHz. Although the azimuth angles have considerable scatter, the directions of arrival at 3.11 kHz can be organized into three groups, each of which appears to be associated with a separate upward drifting feature in the radio emission spectrum. The first group, which is associated with the main 1992-93 event, is consistent with a source located near the nose of the heliosphere. The remaining two groups, which occur after the main 1992-93 event, have azimuth angles well away from the nose of the heliosphere. The modulation indexes vary over a large range, from 0.06 to 0.61, with no obvious trend. Although the variations in the directions of arrival and modulation indicies appear to reflect changes in the position and angular size of the source, it is also possible that they could be caused by refraction or scattering due to density structures in the solar wind.

Real-time realizations of the Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.; Arrowsmith, S.; Hofstetter, A.; Nippress, A.

2015-12-01

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization method (BISL), introduced by Mordak et al. (2010) and upgraded by Marcillo et al. (2014) is destined for the accurate estimation of the atmospheric event origin at local, regional and global scales by the seismic and infrasonic networks and arrays. The BISL is based on probabilistic models of the source-station infrasonic signal propagation time, picking time and azimuth estimate merged with a prior knowledge about celerity distribution. It requires at each hypothetical source location, integration of the product of the corresponding source-station likelihood functions multiplied by a prior probability density function of celerity over the multivariate parameter space. The present BISL realization is generally time-consuming procedure based on numerical integration. The computational scheme proposed simplifies the target function so that integrals are taken exactly and are represented via standard functions. This makes the procedure much faster and realizable in real-time without practical loss of accuracy. The procedure executed as PYTHON-FORTRAN code demonstrates high performance on a set of the model and real data.

Discriminating the tectonic and non-tectonic contributions in the ionospheric signature of the 2011, Mw7.1, dip-slip Van earthquake, Eastern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, Lucie M.; Vergnolle, Mathilde; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Sladen, Anthony; Dessa, Jean-Xavier; Tavakoli, Farokh; Nankali, Hamid Reza; Cappa, FréDéRic

2013-06-01

It has previously been suggested that ionospheric perturbations triggered by large dip-slip earthquakes might offer additional source parameter information compared to the information gathered from land observations. Based on 3D modeling of GPS- and GLONASS-derived total electron content signals recorded during the 2011 Van earthquake (thrust, intra-plate event, Mw = 7.1, Turkey), we confirm that coseismic ionospheric signals do contain important information about the earthquake source, namely its slip mode. Moreover, we show that part of the ionospheric signal (initial polarity and amplitude distribution) is not related to the earthquake source, but is instead controlled by the geomagnetic field and the geometry of the Global Navigation Satellite System satellites constellation. Ignoring these non-tectonic effects would lead to an incorrect description of the earthquake source. Thus, our work emphasizes the added caution that should be used when analyzing ionospheric signals for earthquake source studies.

Discriminating the tectonic and non-tectonic contributions in the ionospheric signature of the 2011, Mw 7.1, dip-slip Van earthquake, Eastern Turkey (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L. M.; Vergnolle, M.; Nocquet, J.; Sladen, A.; Dessa, J.; Tavakoli, F.; Nankali, H.; Cappa, F.

2013-12-01

It has previously been suggested that ionospheric perturbations triggered by large dip-slip earthquakes might offer additional source parameter information compared to the information gathered from land observations. Based on 3D modeling of GPS- and GLONASS-derived total electron content signals recorded during the 2011 Van earthquake (thrust, intra-plate event, Mw = 7.1, Turkey), we confirm that coseismic ionospheric signals do contain important information about the earthquake source, namely its slip mode. Moreover, we show that part of the ionospheric signal (initial polarity and amplitude distribution) is not related to the earthquake source, but is instead controlled by the geomagnetic field and the geometry of the Global Navigation Satellite System satellites constellation. Ignoring these non-tectonic effects would lead to an incorrect description of the earthquake source. Thus, our work emphasizes the added caution that should be used when analyzing ionospheric signals for earthquake source studies.

Analysis of the geophysical data using a posteriori algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voskoboynikova, Gyulnara; Khairetdinov, Marat

2016-04-01

The problems of monitoring, prediction and prevention of extraordinary natural and technogenic events are priority of modern problems. These events include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, the lunar-solar tides, landslides, falling celestial bodies, explosions utilized stockpiles of ammunition, numerous quarry explosion in open coal mines, provoking technogenic earthquakes. Monitoring is based on a number of successive stages, which include remote registration of the events responses, measurement of the main parameters as arrival times of seismic waves or the original waveforms. At the final stage the inverse problems associated with determining the geographic location and time of the registration event are solving. Therefore, improving the accuracy of the parameters estimation of the original records in the high noise is an important problem. As is known, the main measurement errors arise due to the influence of external noise, the difference between the real and model structures of the medium, imprecision of the time definition in the events epicenter, the instrumental errors. Therefore, posteriori algorithms more accurate in comparison with known algorithms are proposed and investigated. They are based on a combination of discrete optimization method and fractal approach for joint detection and estimation of the arrival times in the quasi-periodic waveforms sequence in problems of geophysical monitoring with improved accuracy. Existing today, alternative approaches to solving these problems does not provide the given accuracy. The proposed algorithms are considered for the tasks of vibration sounding of the Earth in times of lunar and solar tides, and for the problem of monitoring of the borehole seismic source location in trade drilling.

Children's eyewitness memory: repeating post-event misinformation reduces the distinctiveness of a witnessed event.

PubMed

Bright-Paul, Alexandra; Jarrold, Christopher

2012-01-01

Children may incorporate misinformation into reports of witnessed events, particularly if the misinformation is repeated. One explanation is that the misinformation trace is strengthened by repetition. Alternatively, repeating misinformation may reduce the discriminability between event and misinformation sources, increasing interference between them. We tested trace strength and distinctiveness accounts by showing 5- and 6-year-olds an event and then presenting either the "same" or "varying" items of post-event misinformation across three iterations. Performance was compared to a baseline in which misinformation was presented once. Repeating the same misinformation increased suggestibility when misinformation was erroneously attributed to both event and misinformation sources, supporting a trace strength interpretation. However, suggestibility measured by attributing misinformation solely to the event, was lower when misinformation was presented repeatedly rather than once. In contrast, identification of the correct source of the event was less likely if the misinformation was repeated, whether the same or different across iterations. Thus a reduction in the distinctiveness of sources disrupted memory for the event source. Moreover, there was strong association between memory for the event and a measure of distinctiveness of sources, which takes into account both the number of confusable source and their apparent temporal spacing from the point of retrieval.

Source characteristics and geological implications of the January 2016 induced earthquake swarm near Crooked Lake, Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruijia; Gu, Yu Jeffrey; Schultz, Ryan; Zhang, Miao; Kim, Ahyi

2017-08-01

On 2016 January 12, an intraplate earthquake with an initial reported local magnitude (ML) of 4.8 shook the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. While there were no reported damages, this earthquake was widely felt by the local residents and suspected to be induced by the nearby hydraulic-fracturing (HF) operations. In this study, we determine the earthquake source parameters using moment tensor inversions, and then detect and locate the associated swarm using a waveform cross-correlation based method. The broad-band seismic recordings from regional arrays suggest a moment magnitude (M) 4.1 for this event, which is the largest in Alberta in the past decade. Similar to other recent M ∼ 3 earthquakes near Fox Creek, the 2016 January 12 earthquake exhibits a dominant strike-slip (strike = 184°) mechanism with limited non-double-couple components (∼22 per cent). This resolved focal mechanism, which is also supported by forward modelling and P-wave first motion analysis, indicates an NE-SW oriented compressional axis consistent with the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientations delineated from borehole breakouts. Further detection analysis on industry-contributed recordings unveils 1108 smaller events within 3 km radius of the epicentre of the main event, showing a close spatial-temporal relation to a nearby HF well. The majority of the detected events are located above the basement, comparable to the injection depth (3.5 km) on the Duvernay shale Formation. The spatial distribution of this earthquake cluster further suggests that (1) the source of the sequence is an N-S-striking fault system and (2) these earthquakes were induced by an HF well close to but different from the well that triggered a previous (January 2015) earthquake swarm. Reactivation of pre-existing, N-S oriented faults analogous to the Pine Creek fault zone, which was reported by earlier studies of active source seismic and aeromagnetic data, are likely responsible for the occurrence of the January 2016 earthquake swarm and other recent events in the Crooked Lake area.

The critical angle in seismic interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wijk, K.; Calvert, A.; Haney, M.; Mikesell, D.; Snieder, R.

2008-01-01

Limitations with respect to the characteristics and distribution of sources are inherent to any field seismic experiment, but in seismic interferometry these lead to spurious waves. Instead of trying to eliminate, filter or otherwise suppress spurious waves, crosscorrelation of receivers in a refraction experiment indicate we can take advantage of spurious events for near-surface parameter extraction for static corrections or near-surface imaging. We illustrate this with numerical examples and a field experiment from the CSM/Boise State University Geophysics Field Camp.

Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villar, V. Ashley; Berger, Edo; Metzger, Brian D.; Guillochon, James

2017-11-01

The duration-luminosity phase space (DLPS) of optical transients is used, mostly heuristically, to compare various classes of transient events, to explore the origin of new transients, and to influence optical survey observing strategies. For example, several observational searches have been guided by intriguing voids and gaps in this phase space. However, we should ask, do we expect to find transients in these voids given our understanding of the various heating sources operating in astrophysical transients? In this work, we explore a broad range of theoretical models and empirical relations to generate optical light curves and to populate the DLPS. We explore transients powered by adiabatic expansion, radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and circumstellar interaction. For each heating source, we provide a concise summary of the basic physical processes, a physically motivated choice of model parameter ranges, an overall summary of the resulting light curves and their occupied range in the DLPS, and how the various model input parameters affect the light curves. We specifically explore the key voids discussed in the literature: the intermediate-luminosity gap between classical novae and supernovae, and short-duration transients (≲ 10 days). We find that few physical models lead to transients that occupy these voids. Moreover, we find that only relativistic expansion can produce fast and luminous transients, while for all other heating sources events with durations ≲ 10 days are dim ({M}{{R}}≳ -15 mag). Finally, we explore the detection potential of optical surveys (e.g., Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) in the DLPS and quantify the notion that short-duration and dim transients are exponentially more difficult to discover in untargeted surveys.

Uncertainty estimations for moment tensor inversions: the issue of the 2012 May 20 Emilia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scognamiglio, Laura; Magnoni, Federica; Tinti, Elisa; Casarotti, Emanuele

2016-08-01

Seismic moment tensor is one of the most important source parameters defining the earthquake dimension and style of the activated fault. Geoscientists ordinarily use moment tensor catalogues, however, few attempts have been done to assess possible impacts of moment magnitude uncertainties upon their analysis. The 2012 May 20 Emilia main shock is a representative event since it is defined in literature with a moment magnitude value (Mw) spanning between 5.63 and 6.12. A variability of ˜0.5 units in magnitude leads to a controversial knowledge of the real size of the event and reveals how the solutions could be poorly constrained. In this work, we investigate the stability of the moment tensor solution for this earthquake, studying the effect of five different 1-D velocity models, the number and the distribution of the stations used in the inversion procedure. We also introduce a 3-D velocity model to account for structural heterogeneity. We finally estimate the uncertainties associated to the computed focal planes and the obtained Mw. We conclude that our reliable source solutions provide a moment magnitude that ranges from 5.87, 1-D model, to 5.96, 3-D model, reducing the variability of the literature to ˜0.1. We endorse that the estimate of seismic moment from moment tensor solutions, as well as the estimate of the other kinematic source parameters, requires coming out with disclosed assumptions and explicit processing workflows. Finally and, probably more important, when moment tensor solution is used for secondary analyses it has to be combined with the same main boundary conditions (e.g. wave-velocity propagation model) to avoid conflicting results.

Comparison of earthquake source characteristics in the Kachchh Rift Basin and Saurashtra horst, Deccan Volcanic Province, western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sairam, B.; Singh, A. P.; Ravi Kumar, M.

2018-06-01

Seismic source parameters of small to moderate sized intraplate earthquakes that occurred during 2002-2009 in the tectonic blocks of Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) and the Saurashtra Horst (SH), in the stable continental region of western peninsular India, are studied through spectral analysis of shear waves. The data of aftershock sequence of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) in the KRB and the 2007 Talala earthquake (Mw 5.0) in the SH are used for this study. In the SH, the seismic moment (Mo), corner frequency (fc), stress drop (Δ σ ) and source radius ( r) vary from 7.8× 10^{11} to 4.0× 10^{16} N-m, 1.0-8.9 Hz, 4.8-10.2 MPa and 195-1480 m, respectively. While in the KRB, these parameters vary from Mo ˜ 1.24 × 10^{11} to 4.1 × 10^{16} N-m, f_{c }˜ 1.6 to 13.1 Hz, Δ σ ˜ 0.06 to 16.62 MPa and r ˜ 100 to 840 m. The kappa ( K) value in the KRB (0.025-0.03) is slightly larger than that in the SH region (0.02), probably due to thick sedimentary layers. The estimated stress drops of earthquakes in the KRB are relatively higher than those in SH, due to large crustal stress concentration associated with mafic/ultramafic rocks at the hypocentral depths. The results also suggest that the stress drop value of intraplate earthquakes is larger than the interplate earthquakes. In addition, it is observed that the strike-slip events in the SH have lower stress drops, compared to the thrust and strike-slip events.

Model of Energy Spectrum Parameters of Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.-S.; Qin, G.

2018-01-01

Mewaldt et al. (2012) fitted the observations of the ground level enhancement (GLE) events during solar cycle 23 to the double power law equation to obtain the four spectral parameters, the normalization constant C, low-energy power law slope γ1, high-energy power law slope γ2, and break energy E0. There are 16 GLEs from which we select 13 for study by excluding some events with complicated situation. We analyze the four parameters with conditions of the corresponding solar events. According to solar event conditions, we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary shocks and another one without strong acceleration. By fitting the four parameters with solar event conditions we obtain models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. Therefore, we establish a model of energy spectrum of solar cycle 23 GLEs, which may be used in prediction in the future.

Approach to identifying pollutant source and matching flow field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liping, Pang; Yu, Zhang; Hongquan, Qu; Tao, Hu; Wei, Wang

2013-07-01

Accidental pollution events often threaten people's health and lives, and it is necessary to identify a pollutant source rapidly so that prompt actions can be taken to prevent the spread of pollution. But this identification process is one of the difficulties in the inverse problem areas. This paper carries out some studies on this issue. An approach using single sensor information with noise was developed to identify a sudden continuous emission trace pollutant source in a steady velocity field. This approach first compares the characteristic distance of the measured concentration sequence to the multiple hypothetical measured concentration sequences at the sensor position, which are obtained based on a source-three-parameter multiple hypotheses. Then we realize the source identification by globally searching the optimal values with the objective function of the maximum location probability. Considering the large amount of computation load resulting from this global searching, a local fine-mesh source search method based on priori coarse-mesh location probabilities is further used to improve the efficiency of identification. Studies have shown that the flow field has a very important influence on the source identification. Therefore, we also discuss the impact of non-matching flow fields with estimation deviation on identification. Based on this analysis, a method for matching accurate flow field is presented to improve the accuracy of identification. In order to verify the practical application of the above method, an experimental system simulating a sudden pollution process in a steady flow field was set up and some experiments were conducted when the diffusion coefficient was known. The studies showed that the three parameters (position, emission strength and initial emission time) of the pollutant source in the experiment can be estimated by using the method for matching flow field and source identification.

Pulse shape discrimination for Gerda Phase I data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agostini, M.; Allardt, M.; Andreotti, E.; Bakalyarov, A. M.; Balata, M.; Barabanov, I.; Barnabé Heider, M.; Barros, N.; Baudis, L.; Bauer, C.; Becerici-Schmidt, N.; Bellotti, E.; Belogurov, S.; Belyaev, S. T.; Benato, G.; Bettini, A.; Bezrukov, L.; Bode, T.; Brudanin, V.; Brugnera, R.; Budjáš, D.; Caldwell, A.; Cattadori, C.; Chernogorov, A.; Cossavella, F.; Demidova, E. V.; Domula, A.; Egorov, V.; Falkenstein, R.; Ferella, A.; Freund, K.; Frodyma, N.; Gangapshev, A.; Garfagnini, A.; Gotti, C.; Grabmayr, P.; Gurentsov, V.; Gusev, K.; Guthikonda, K. K.; Hampel, W.; Hegai, A.; Heisel, M.; Hemmer, S.; Heusser, G.; Hofmann, W.; Hult, M.; Inzhechik, L. V.; Ioannucci, L.; Janicskó Csáthy, J.; Jochum, J.; Junker, M.; Kihm, T.; Kirpichnikov, I. V.; Kirsch, A.; Klimenko, A.; Knöpfle, K. T.; Kochetov, O.; Kornoukhov, V. N.; Kuzminov, V. V.; Laubenstein, M.; Lazzaro, A.; Lebedev, V. I.; Lehnert, B.; Liao, H. Y.; Lindner, M.; Lippi, I.; Liu, X.; Lubashevskiy, A.; Lubsandorzhiev, B.; Lutter, G.; Macolino, C.; Machado, A. A.; Majorovits, B.; Maneschg, W.; Misiaszek, M.; Nemchenok, I.; Nisi, S.; O'Shaughnessy, C.; Pandola, L.; Pelczar, K.; Pessina, G.; Pullia, A.; Riboldi, S.; Rumyantseva, N.; Sada, C.; Salathe, M.; Schmitt, C.; Schreiner, J.; Schulz, O.; Schwingenheuer, B.; Schönert, S.; Shevchik, E.; Shirchenko, M.; Simgen, H.; Smolnikov, A.; Stanco, L.; Strecker, H.; Tarka, M.; Ur, C. A.; Vasenko, A. A.; Volynets, O.; von Sturm, K.; Wagner, V.; Walter, M.; Wegmann, A.; Wester, T.; Wojcik, M.; Yanovich, E.; Zavarise, P.; Zhitnikov, I.; Zhukov, S. V.; Zinatulina, D.; Zuber, K.; Zuzel, G.

2013-10-01

The Gerda experiment located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of INFN searches for neutrinoless double beta (0 νββ) decay of 76Ge using germanium diodes as source and detector. In Phase I of the experiment eight semi-coaxial and five BEGe type detectors have been deployed. The latter type is used in this field of research for the first time. All detectors are made from material with enriched 76Ge fraction. The experimental sensitivity can be improved by analyzing the pulse shape of the detector signals with the aim to reject background events. This paper documents the algorithms developed before the data of Phase I were unblinded. The double escape peak (DEP) and Compton edge events of 2.615 MeV γ rays from 208Tl decays as well as two-neutrino double beta (2 νββ) decays of 76Ge are used as proxies for 0 νββ decay. For BEGe detectors the chosen selection is based on a single pulse shape parameter. It accepts 0.92±0.02 of signal-like events while about 80 % of the background events at Q ββ =2039 keV are rejected. For semi-coaxial detectors three analyses are developed. The one based on an artificial neural network is used for the search of 0 νββ decay. It retains 90 % of DEP events and rejects about half of the events around Q ββ . The 2 νββ events have an efficiency of 0.85±0.02 and the one for 0 νββ decays is estimated to be . A second analysis uses a likelihood approach trained on Compton edge events. The third approach uses two pulse shape parameters. The latter two methods confirm the classification of the neural network since about 90 % of the data events rejected by the neural network are also removed by both of them. In general, the selection efficiency extracted from DEP events agrees well with those determined from Compton edge events or from 2 νββ decays.

Pulse shape discrimination for Gerda Phase I data

DOE PAGES

Agostini, M.; Allardt, M.; Andreotti, E.; ...

2013-10-09

The GERDA experiment located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of INFN searches for neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay of 76Ge using germanium diodes as source and detector. In Phase I of the experiment eight semi-coaxial and five BEGe type detectors have been deployed. The latter type is used in this field of research for the first time. All detectors are made from material with enriched 76Ge fraction. The experimental sensitivity can be improved by analyzing the pulse shape of the detector signals with the aim to reject background events. This paper documents the algorithms developed before the datamore » of Phase I were unblinded. The double escape peak (DEP) and Compton edge events of 2.615 MeV γ rays from 208Tl decays as well as two-neutrino double beta (2νββ) decays of 76Ge are used as proxies for 0νββ decay. For BEGe detectors the chosen selection is based on a single pulse shape parameter. It accepts 0.92 ± 0.02 of signal-like events while about 80 % of the background events at Qββ = 2039 keV are rejected. For semi-coaxial detectors three analyses are developed. The one based on an artificial neural network is used for the search of 0νββ decay. It retains 90 % of DEP events and rejects about half of the events around Qββ . The 2νββ events have an efficiency of 0.85±0.02 and the one for 0νββ decays is estimated to be 0.90 +0.05 -0.09 . A second analysis uses a likelihood approach trained on Compton edge events. The third approach uses two pulse shape parameters. The latter two methods confirm the classification of the neural network since about 90 % of the data events rejected by the neural network are also removed by both of them. In general, the selection efficiency extracted from DEP events agrees well with those determined from Compton edge events or from 2νββ decays.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agostini, M.; Allardt, M.; Andreotti, E.

The GERDA experiment located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of INFN searches for neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay of 76Ge using germanium diodes as source and detector. In Phase I of the experiment eight semi-coaxial and five BEGe type detectors have been deployed. The latter type is used in this field of research for the first time. All detectors are made from material with enriched 76Ge fraction. The experimental sensitivity can be improved by analyzing the pulse shape of the detector signals with the aim to reject background events. This paper documents the algorithms developed before the datamore » of Phase I were unblinded. The double escape peak (DEP) and Compton edge events of 2.615 MeV γ rays from 208Tl decays as well as two-neutrino double beta (2νββ) decays of 76Ge are used as proxies for 0νββ decay. For BEGe detectors the chosen selection is based on a single pulse shape parameter. It accepts 0.92 ± 0.02 of signal-like events while about 80 % of the background events at Qββ = 2039 keV are rejected. For semi-coaxial detectors three analyses are developed. The one based on an artificial neural network is used for the search of 0νββ decay. It retains 90 % of DEP events and rejects about half of the events around Qββ . The 2νββ events have an efficiency of 0.85±0.02 and the one for 0νββ decays is estimated to be 0.90 +0.05 -0.09 . A second analysis uses a likelihood approach trained on Compton edge events. The third approach uses two pulse shape parameters. The latter two methods confirm the classification of the neural network since about 90 % of the data events rejected by the neural network are also removed by both of them. In general, the selection efficiency extracted from DEP events agrees well with those determined from Compton edge events or from 2νββ decays.« less

Assessing temporal variations in connectivity through suspended sediment hysteresis analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff, Sophie; Rowan, John; Fenton, Owen; Jordan, Phil; Melland, Alice; Mellander, Per-Erik; hUallacháin, Daire Ó.

2016-04-01

Connectivity provides a valuable concept for understanding catchment-scale sediment dynamics. In intensive agricultural catchments, land management through tillage, high livestock densities and extensive land drainage practices significantly change hydromorphological behaviour and alter sediment supply and downstream delivery. Analysis of suspended sediment-discharge hysteresis has offered insights into sediment dynamics but typically on a limited selection of events. Greater availability of continuous high-resolution discharge and turbidity data and qualitative hysteresis metrics enables assessment of sediment dynamics during more events and over time. This paper assesses the utility of this approach to explore seasonal variations in connectivity. Data were collected from three small (c. 10 km2) intensive agricultural catchments in Ireland with contrasting morphologies, soil types, land use patterns and management practices, and are broadly defined as low-permeability supporting grassland, moderate-permeability supporting arable and high-permeability supporting arable. Suspended sediment concentration (using calibrated turbidity measurements) and discharge data were collected at 10-min resolution from each catchment outlet and precipitation data were collected from a weather station within each catchment. Event databases (67-90 events per catchment) collated information on sediment export metrics, hysteresis category (e.g., clockwise, anti-clockwise, no hysteresis), numeric hysteresis index, and potential hydro-meteorological controls on sediment transport including precipitation amount, duration, intensity, stream flow and antecedent soil moisture and rainfall. Statistical analysis of potential controls on sediment export was undertaken using Pearson's correlation coefficient on separate hysteresis categories in each catchment. Sediment hysteresis fluctuations through time were subsequently assessed using the hysteresis index. Results showed the numeric hysteresis index varied over time in all three catchments. The exact response was catchment specific reflecting changing sediment availability and connectivity through time as indicated by dominant controls. In the low-permeability grassland catchment, proximal sources dominated which was consistent with observations of active channel bank erosion. Seasonal increases in rainfall increased the erosion potential but continuous grassland cover mitigated against hillslope sediment contributions despite high hydrological connectivity and surface pathways. The moderate-permeability arable catchment was dominated by events with a distal source component but those with both proximal and distal sediment sources yielded the highest sediment quantities. These events were driven by rainfall parameters suggesting sediment were surface derived and the hillslope was hydrologically connected during most events. Through time, a sustained period of rainfall increased the magnitude of negative hysteresis, likely demonstrating increasing surface hydrological connectivity due to increased groundwater saturation. Where increased hydrological connectivity coincided with low groundcover, the largest sediment exports were recorded. Events in the high permeability catchment indicated predominantly proximal sediments despite abundant distal sources from tilled fields. The infiltration dominated high permeability soils hydrologically disconnected these field sources and limited sediment supply. However, the greatest sediment export occurred in this catchment suggesting thresholds existed, which when exceeded during higher magnitude events, resulted in efficient conveyance of sediments. Hysteresis analysis offers wider utility as a tool to understand sediment pathways and connectivity issues with applications to catchment management strategies.

Age-Related Positivity Effects and Autobiographical Memory Detail: Evidence from a Past/Future Source Memory Task

PubMed Central

Gallo, David A.; Korthauer, Laura E.; McDonough, Ian M.; Teshale, Salom; Johnson, Elizabeth L.

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether the age-related positivity effect strengthens specific event details in autobiographical memory. Participants retrieved past events or imagined future events in response to neutral or emotional cue words. Older adults rated each kind of event more positively than younger adults, demonstrating an age-related positivity effect. We next administered a source memory test. Participants were given the same cue words and tried to retrieve the previously generated event and its source (past or future). Accuracy on this source test should depend on the recollection of specific details about the earlier generated events, providing a more objective measure of those details than subjective ratings. We found that source accuracy was greater for positive than negative future events in both age groups, suggesting that positive future events were more detailed. In contrast, valence did not affect source accuracy for past events in either age group, suggesting that positive and negative past events were equally detailed. Although aging can bias people to focus on positive aspects of experience, this bias does not appear to strengthen the availability of details for positive relative to negative past events. PMID:21919591

Geomagnetic Dependence of Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs) Observed by Mid- and High- Latitude SuperDARN Radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frissell, N. A.; Baker, J. B.; Ruohoniemi, J.; Miller, E.; West, M.; Bristow, W. A.

2013-12-01

Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs) are wave-like perturbations of the F-region ionosphere with horizontal wavelengths on the order of 100-250 km and periods between ~15 - 60 min. They are generally thought to be the ionospheric manifestation of Atmospheric Gravity Waves (AGWs). High-latitude MSTIDs have been studied using SuperDARN radars for many years, and have typically been attributed to auroral sources propagated by the Earth Reflected Wave (ERW) mode. Tropospheric sources and earthquakes are also known to be sources of MSTIDs. The goal of this study is to see if high- and mid- latitude MSTIDs share the same source region. Observations of MSTIDs using both mid- and high- latitude SuperDARN radars are presented. A case study using MSTIDs observed at the high latitude Goose Bay Radar (GBR) and the midlatitude Blackstone Radar (BKS) suggest that the auroral source is more likely for GBR than for BKS. BKS radar data from June 2010 - June 2011 were searched for signatures of MSTIDs. Statistics of propagation direction and wavelength for each event are used to suggest MSTID sources. Results show that MSTIDs are observed at BKS primarily in the fall/winter months, which is consistent with previously published results for high latitude stations. Distributions of MSTID occurrence organized by geomagnetic parameters Kp, SYM-H, and AE are presented to investigate MSTID dependence on geomagnetic activity at BKS. No correlation is found between these parameters and midlatitude MSTID occurrence, which suggests that high- and mid-latitude MSTIDs have different sources.

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

2017-11-20

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in the Southwest region was 0.35 (80-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.21−0.52), whereas the forecast probability was 0.48 (80-percent CI: 0.30−0.64) over a 40-year projected time horizon. Moderate and intense RTMM events are expected to continue to be most frequent in the Southwest region, to increase in mean frequency in the Northwest region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Northwest region was 0, whereas the forecast probability was 0.12 [80-percent CI: 0.02−0.39] over a 40-year projected time horizon) and in the Atlantic region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Atlantic region was 0.05 [80-percent CI: 0.005–0.18], whereas the forecast probability was 0.11 [80-percent CI: 0.03−0.25] over a 40-year projected time horizon), and to remain absent from the Upper St. Johns River region. The impact of red-tide blooms on manatee mortality has been measured for the Southwest region but not for the Northwest and Atlantic regions, where such events have been rare. The expert panel predicted that the median magnitude of RTMM events in the Atlantic and Northwest regions will be much smaller than that in the Southwest; given the large uncertainties, however, they acknowledged the possibility that these events could be larger in their mortality impacts than in the Southwest region. By its nature, forecasting requires expert judgment because it is impossible to have empirical evidence about the future. The large uncertainties in parameter estimates over a 100-year timeframe are to be expected and may also indicate that the training provided to panelists successfully minimized one common pitfall of expert judgment, that of overconfidence. This study has provided useful and needed inputs to the Florida manatee population viability analysis associated with an important and recurrent source of mortality from harmful algal blooms.

Source Parameter Inversion for Recent Great Earthquakes from a Decade-long Observation of Global Gravity Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Shin-Chan; Riva, Ricccardo; Sauber, Jeanne; Okal, Emile

2013-01-01

We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

High-Frequency Ground-Motion Parameters from Weak-Motion Data in the Sicily Channel and Surrounding Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, Sebastiano; Akinci, Aybige; Pischiutta, Marta

2018-03-01

In this paper we characterize the high frequency (1.0 - 10 Hz) seismic wave crustal attenuation and the source excitation in the Sicily Channel and surrounding regions using background seismicity from weak-motion database. The data set includes 15995 waveforms related to earthquakes having local magnitude ranging from 2.0 to 4.5 recorded between 2006 and 2012. The observed and predicted ground motions form the weak-motion data are evaluated in several narrow frequency bands from 0.25 to 20.0 Hz. The filtered observed peaks are regressed to specify a proper functional form for the regional attenuation, excitation and site specific term separately. The results are then used to calibrate effective theoretical attenuation and source excitation models using the Random Vibration Theory (RVT). In the log-log domain, the regional seismic wave attenuation and the geometrical spreading coefficient are modeled together. The geometrical spreading coefficient, g (r), modeled with a bilinear piecewise functional form and given as g (r) ∝ r-1.0 for the short distances (r < 50 km) and as g (r) ∝ r-0.8 for the larger distances (r < 50 km). A frequency-dependent quality factor, inverse of the seismic attenuation parameter, Q(f) = 160 f/fref 0. 35 (where fref = 1.0 Hz), is combined to the geometrical spreading. The source excitation terms are defined at a selected reference distance with a magnitude independent roll-off spectral parameter, κ 0.04 s and with a Brune stress drop parameter increasing with moment magnitude, from Δσ = 2 MPa for Mw = 2.0 to Δσ = 13 MPa for Mw = 4.5. For events M≤4.5 (being Mwmax = 4.5 available in the dataset) the stress parameters are obtained by correlating the empirical/excitation source spectra with the Brune spectral model as function of magnitude. For the larger magnitudes (Mw>4.5) outside the range available in the calibration dataset where we do not have recorded data, we extrapolate our results through the calibration of the stress parameters of the Brune source spectrum over the Bindi et al. (2011) ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) selected as a reference model (hereafter also ITA10).

Locating low-frequency earthquakes using amplitude signals from seismograph stations: Examples from events at Montserrat, West Indies and from synthetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, A.; Jousset, P.; Neuberg, J.

2003-04-01

We determine locations for low-frequency earthquakes occurring prior to a collapse on June 25th, 1997 using signal amplitudes from a 7-station local seismograph network at the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat, West Indies. Locations are determined by averaging the signal amplitude over the event waveform and inverting these data using an assumed amplitude decay model comprising geometrical spreading and attenuation. Resulting locations are centered beneath the active dome from 500 to 2000 m below sea level assuming body wave geometrical spreading and a quality factor of Q=22. Locations for the same events shifted systematically shallower by about 500 m assuming a surface wave geometrical spreading. Locations are consistent to results obtained using arrival time methods. The validity of the method is tested against synthetic low-frequency events constructed from a 2-D finite difference model including visco-elastic properties. Two example events are tested; one from a point source triggered in a low velocity conduit ranging between 100-1100 m below the surface, and the second triggered in a conduit located 1500-2500 m below the surface. Resulting seismograms have emergent onsets and extended codas and include the effect of conduit resonance. Employing geometrical spreading and attenuation from the finite-difference modelling, we obtain locations within the respective model conduits validating our approach.The location depths are sensitive to the assumed geometric spreading and Q model. We can distinguish between two sources separated by about 1000 meters only if we know the decay parameters.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for earthquakes, volcanic events, and nuclear explosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvizuri, Celso; Silwal, Vipul; Krischer, Lion; Tape, Carl

2017-04-01

A seismic moment tensor is a 3 × 3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of seismic events within Earth's crust. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms at each grid point and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or rather the confidence, is then given by the 'confidence curve' P(V ), where P(V ) is the probability that the true moment tensor for the event lies within the neighborhood of M that has fractional volume V . The area under the confidence curve provides a single, abbreviated 'confidence parameter' for M. We apply the method to data from events in different regions and tectonic settings: small (Mw < 2.5) events at Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia, moderate (Mw > 4) earthquakes in the southern Alaska subduction zone, and natural and man-made events at the Nevada Test Site. Moment tensor uncertainties allow us to better discriminate among moment tensor source types and to assign physical processes to the events.

Sources of seismic events in the cooling lava lake of Kilauea Iki, Hawaii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chouet, B.

1979-05-10

Seismic surveys conducted in recent years revealed a suprisingly high and sustained activity of local seismic events originating in the partially frozen lava lake of Kilauea Iki crater, Hawaii. About 8000 events per day were counted in 1976 at the center of the lake with a seismograph having a peak magnification of 280,000 at 60 Hz. The activity was found to be uniform over the whole area above the inferred magma lens and very weak in the periphery of the lake. The frequency-amplitude relation for these shocks obeys the Ishimoto-Iida or Gutenberg-Richter law very well, with a b value ofmore » 1.19( +- 0.06). Locations of a few selected events indicate that they occur both above and below the layer of melt, although the seismic activity appears to be much higher in the upper crust. Whenever clear, the first motion is always outward from the source, suggesting that a crack opening under tensile stress owing to cooling is the responsible source mechanism. A simple model of a circular tensile crack nucleating at a point and growing at subsonic velocity can match the far-field P wave from these sources fairly well. Typical parameters for a large event inferred from the model are the following: radius, 2.7 m; maximum static tensile displacement between crack faces, 2.9..mu..; cavity volume, 4.4 x 10/sup -5/ m/sup 3/; and a seismic moment tensor with diagonal elements only, having the values 3.8 x 10/sup 2/exclamation2, 4.5 x 10/sup 12/, and 3.8 x 10/sup 12/ dyn cm. The magnitude of the event is about -1, and its stress drop is of the order of 0.01 bar. A Q as low as 10 is required to satisfy the shape of the observed wave forms. The total cavity volume integrated over all cracks which is generated daily in the upper crust of Kilauea Iki is of the order of 1--20 m/sup 3/. An alternate interpretation of the data, the seismic activity as reflecting the extension by up to several tens of centimeters of long existing cracks rather than the formation of new cracks.« less

Rupture Propagation Imaging of Fluid Induced Events at the Basel EGS Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Shapiro, Serge A.

2014-05-01

The analysis of rupture properties using rupture propagation imaging techniques is a fast developing field of research in global seismology. Usually rupture fronts of large to megathrust earthquakes are subject of recent studies, like e.g. the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake or the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The back projection technique is the most prominent technique in this field. Here the seismograms recorded at an array or at a seismic network are back shifted to a grid of possible source locations via a special stacking procedure. This can provide information on the energy release and energy distribution of the rupture which then can be used to find estimates of event properties like location, rupture direction, rupture speed or length. The procedure is fast and direct and it only relies on a reasonable velocity model. Thus it is a good way to rapidly estimate the rupture properties and it can be used to confirm independently achieved event information. We adopted the back projection technique and put it in a microseismic context. We demonstrated its usage for multiple synthetic ruptures within a reservoir model of microseismic scale in earlier works. Our motivation hereby is the occurrence of relatively large, induced seismic events at a number of stimulated geothermal reservoirs or waste disposal sites, having magnitudes ML ≥ 3.4 and yielding rupture lengths of several hundred meters. We use the configuration of the seismic network and reservoir properties of the Basel Geothermal Site to build a synthetic model of a rupture by modeling the wave field of multiple spatio-temporal separated single sources using Finite-Difference modeling. The focus of this work is the application of the Back Projection technique and the demonstration of its feasibility to retrieve the rupture properties of real fluid induced events. We take four microseismic events with magnitudes from ML 3.1 to 3.4 and reconstruct source parameters like location, orientation and length. By comparison with our synthetic results as well as independent localization studies and source mechanism studies in this area we can show, that the obtained results are reasonable and that the application of back projection imaging is not only possible for microseismic datasets of respective quality, but that it provides important additional insights in the rupture process.

Modeling of highway stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Kim, Lee-Hyung; Kayhanian, Masoud; Zoh, Kyung-Duk; Stenstrom, Michael K

2005-09-15

Highways are stormwater intensive landuses since they are impervious and have high pollutant mass emissions from vehicular activity. Vehicle emissions include different pollutants such as heavy metals, oil and grease, particulates from sources such as fuels, brake pad wear and tire wear, and litter. To understand the magnitude and nature of the stormwater emissions, a 3-year study was conducted to quantify stormwater pollutant concentrations, mass emission rates, and the first flush of pollutants. Eight highway sites were monitored over 3 years for a large suite of pollutants. The monitoring protocol emphasized detecting the first flush and quantifying the event mean concentration. Grab and flow-weighted composite samples, rainfall, and runoff data were collected. A new runoff model with four parameters was developed that to describe the first flush of pollutants for a variety of rainfall and runoff conditions. The model was applied to more than 40 events for 8 pollutants, and the parameters were correlated to storm and site conditions, such as total runoff, antecedent dry days, and runoff coefficient. Improved definitions of first flush criteria are also presented.

An architecture for efficient gravitational wave parameter estimation with multimodal linear surrogate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E.

2017-07-01

The recent direct observation of gravitational waves has further emphasized the desire for fast, low-cost, and accurate methods to infer the parameters of gravitational wave sources. Due to expense in waveform generation and data handling, the cost of evaluating the likelihood function limits the computational performance of these calculations. Building on recently developed surrogate models and a novel parameter estimation pipeline, we show how to quickly generate the likelihood function as an analytic, closed-form expression. Using a straightforward variant of a production-scale parameter estimation code, we demonstrate our method using surrogate models of effective-one-body and numerical relativity waveforms. Our study is the first time these models have been used for parameter estimation and one of the first ever parameter estimation calculations with multi-modal numerical relativity waveforms, which include all \\ell ≤slant 4 modes. Our grid-free method enables rapid parameter estimation for any waveform with a suitable reduced-order model. The methods described in this paper may also find use in other data analysis studies, such as vetting coincident events or the computation of the coalescing-compact-binary detection statistic.

Possibility of determining cosmological parameters from measurements of gravitational waves emitted by coalescing, compact binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marković, Dragoljub

1993-11-01

We explore the feasibility of using LIGO and/or VIRGO gravitational-wave measurements of coalescing, neutron-star-neutron-star (NS-NS) binaries and black-hole-neutron-star (BH-NS) binaries at cosmological distances to determine the cosmological parameters of our Universe. From the observed gravitational waveforms one can infer, as direct observables, the luminosity distance D of the source and the binary's two ``redshifted masses,'' M'1≡M1(1+z) and M'2≡M2(1+z), where Mi are the actual masses and z≡Δλ/λ is the binary's cosmological redshift. Assuming that the NS mass spectrum is sharply peaked about 1.4Msolar, as binary pulsar and x-ray source observations suggest, the redshift can be estimated as z=M'NS/1.4Msolar-1. The actual distance-redshift relation D(z) for our Universe is strongly dependent on its cosmological parameters [the Hubble constant H0, or h0≡H0/100 km s-1Mpc-1, the mean mass density ρm, or density parameter Ω0≡(8π/3H20)ρm, and the cosmological constant, Λ, or λ0≡Λ/(3H20)], so by a statistical study of (necessarily noisy) measurements of D and z for a large number of binaries, one can deduce the cosmological parameters. The various noise sources that will plague such a cosmological study are discussed and estimated, and the accuracies of the inferred parameters are determined as functions of the detectors' noise characteristics, the number of binaries observed, and the neutron-star mass spectrum. The dominant source of error is the detectors' intrinsic noise, though stochastic gravitational lensing of the waves by intervening matter might significantly influence the inferred cosmological constant λ0, when the detectors reach ``advanced'' stages of development. The estimated errors of parameters inferred from BH-NS measurements can be described by the following rough analytic fits: Δh0/h0~=0.02(N/h0)(τR)-1/2 (for N/h0<~2), where N is the detector's noise level (strain/Hz) in units of the ``advanced LIGO'' noise level, R is the event rate in units of the best-estimate value, 100 yr-1 Gpc-3, and τ is the observation time in years. In a ``high density'' universe (Ω0=1, λ0=0) ΔΩ0~=0.3(N/h0)2(τR)-1/2, Δλ0~=0.4(N/h0)1.5(τR)-1/2, for N/h0<~1. In a ``low density'' universe (Ω0=0.2, λ0=0), ΔΩ0~=0.5(N/h0)3(τR)-1/2, Δλ0~=0.7(N/h0)2.5(τR)-1/2, also for N/h0<~1. These formulas indicate that, if event rates are those currently estimated (~3 per year out to 200 Mpc), then when the planned LIGO and/or VIRGO detectors get to be about as sensitive as the so-called ``advanced detector level'' (presumably in the early 2000s), interesting cosmological measurements can begin.

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, C.; Casentini, J.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fenyvesi, E.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gaebel, S.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Geng, P.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jian, L.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kapadia, S. J.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chi-Woong; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Lewis, J. B.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O. E. S.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J. V.; Vano-Vinuales, A.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Brügmann, B.; Campanelli, M.; Chu, T.; Clark, M.; Haas, R.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; Kidder, L. E.; Kinsey, M.; Laguna, P.; Ossokine, S.; Pan, Y.; Röver, C.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2016-10-01

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35-3+5 M⊙ and 3 0-4+3 M⊙ (where errors correspond to 90% symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate <0.65 and a secondary spin estimate <0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined). These are then used to obtain coherent parameter sets for the radar reflectivity-rainfall rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-attenuation (Z-k) relationship, specifically applicable for this event. By applying a single parameter set to correct for both sources of errors, the quality of the rainfall product improves further, leading to >80% of the observed accumulations. However, by differentiating between precipitation type no better results are obtained as when using the operational relationships. This leads to the question: how representative are local disdrometer observations to correct large scale weather radar measurements? In order to tackle this question a Monte Carlo approach was used to generate >10000 sets of the normalized dropsize distribution parameters and to assess their impact on the estimated precipitation amounts. Results show that a large number of parameter sets result in improved precipitation estimated by the weather radar closely resembling observations. However, these optimal sets vary considerably as compared to those obtained from the local disdrometer measurements.

Measuring neutron star tidal deformability with Advanced LIGO: A Bayesian analysis of neutron star-black hole binary observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Prayush; Pürrer, Michael; Pfeiffer, Harald P.

2017-02-01

The pioneering discovery of gravitational waves (GWs) by Advanced LIGO has ushered us into an era of observational GW astrophysics. Compact binaries remain the primary target sources for GW observation, of which neutron star-black hole (NSBH) binaries form an important subset. GWs from NSBH sources carry signatures of (a) the tidal distortion of the neutron star by its companion black hole during inspiral, and (b) its potential tidal disruption near merger. In this paper, we present a Bayesian study of the measurability of neutron star tidal deformability ΛNS∝(R /M )NS5 using observation(s) of inspiral-merger GW signals from disruptive NSBH coalescences, taking into account the crucial effect of black hole spins. First, we find that if nontidal templates are used to estimate source parameters for an NSBH signal, the bias introduced in the estimation of nontidal physical parameters will only be significant for loud signals with signal-to-noise ratios greater than ≃30 . For similarly loud signals, we also find that we can begin to put interesting constraints on ΛNS (factor of 1-2) with individual observations. Next, we study how a population of realistic NSBH detections will improve our measurement of neutron star tidal deformability. For an astrophysically likely population of disruptive NSBH coalescences, we find that 20-35 events are sufficient to constrain ΛNS within ±25 %- 50 % , depending on the neutron star equation of state. For these calculations we assume that LIGO will detect black holes with masses within the astrophysical mass gap. In case the mass gap remains preserved in NSBHs detected by LIGO, we estimate that approximately 25% additional detections will furnish comparable ΛNS measurement accuracy. In both cases, we find that it is the loudest 5-10 events that provide most of the tidal information, and not the combination of tens of low-SNR events, thereby facilitating targeted numerical-GR follow-ups of NSBHs. We find these results encouraging, and recommend that an effort to measure ΛNS be planned for upcoming NSBH observations with the LIGO-Virgo instruments.

Development of a microbial contamination susceptibility model for private domestic groundwater sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynds, Paul D.; Misstear, Bruce D.; Gill, Laurence W.

2012-12-01

Groundwater quality analyses were carried out on samples from 262 private sources in the Republic of Ireland during the period from April 2008 to November 2010, with microbial quality assessed by thermotolerant coliform (TTC) presence. Assessment of potential microbial contamination risk factors was undertaken at all sources, and local meteorological data were also acquired. Overall, 28.9% of wells tested positive for TTC, with risk analysis indicating that source type (i.e., borehole or hand-dug well), local bedrock type, local subsoil type, groundwater vulnerability, septic tank setback distance, and 48 h antecedent precipitation were all significantly associated with TTC presence (p < 0.05). A number of source-specific design parameters were also significantly associated with bacterial presence. Hierarchical logistic regression with stepwise parameter entry was used to develop a private well susceptibility model, with the final model exhibiting a mean predictive accuracy of >80% (TTC present or absent) when compared to an independent validation data set. Model hierarchies of primary significance are source design (20%), septic tank location (11%), hydrogeological setting (10%), and antecedent 120 h precipitation (2%). Sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of contamination is highly sensitive to septic tank setback distance, with probability increasing linearly with decreases in setback distance. Likewise, contamination probability was shown to increase with increasing antecedent precipitation. Results show that while groundwater vulnerability category is a useful indicator of aquifer susceptibility to contamination, its suitability with regard to source contamination is less clear. The final model illustrates that both localized (well-specific) and generalized (aquifer-specific) contamination mechanisms are involved in contamination events, with localized bypass mechanisms dominant. The susceptibility model developed here could be employed in the appropriate location, design, construction, and operation of private groundwater wells, thereby decreasing the contamination risk, and hence health risk, associated with these sources.

Kinematic inversion of the 2008 Mw7 Iwate-Miyagi (Japan) earthquake by two independent methods: Sensitivity and resolution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallovic, Frantisek; Cirella, Antonella; Plicka, Vladimir; Piatanesi, Alessio

2013-04-01

On 14 June 2008, UTC 23:43, the border of Iwate and Miyagi prefectures was hit by an Mw7 reverse-fault type crustal earthquake. The event is known to have the largest ground acceleration observed to date (~4g), which was recorded at station IWTH25. We analyze observed strong motion data with the objective to image the event rupture process and the associated uncertainties. Two different slip inversion approaches are used, the difference between the two methods being only in the parameterization of the source model. To minimize mismodeling of the propagation effects we use crustal model obtained by full waveform inversion of aftershock records in the frequency range between 0.05-0.3 Hz. In the first method, based on linear formulation, the parameters are represented by samples of slip velocity functions along the (finely discretized) fault in a time window spanning the whole rupture duration. Such a source description is very general with no prior constraint on the nucleation point, rupture velocity, shape of the velocity function. Thus the inversion could resolve very general (unexpected) features of the rupture evolution, such as multiple rupturing, rupture-propagation reversals, etc. On the other hand, due to the relatively large number of model parameters, the inversion result is highly non-unique, with possibility of obtaining a biased solution. The second method is a non-linear global inversion technique, where each point on the fault can slip only once, following a prescribed functional form of the source time function. We invert simultaneously for peak slip velocity, slip angle, rise time and rupture time by allowing a given range of variability for each kinematic model parameter. For this reason, unlike to the linear inversion approach, the rupture process needs a smaller number of parameters to be retrieved, and is more constrained with a proper control on the allowed range of parameter values. In order to test the resolution and reliability of the retrieved models, we present a thorough analysis of the performance of the two inversion approaches. In fact, depending on the inversion strategy and the intrinsic 'non-uniqueness' of the inverse problem, the final slip maps and distribution of rupture onset times are generally different, sometimes even incompatible with each other. Great emphasis is devoted to the uncertainty estimate of both techniques. Thus we do not compare only the best fitting models, but their 'compatibility' in terms of the uncertainty limits.

The large earthquake on 29 June 1170 (Syria, Lebanon, and central southern Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidoboni, Emanuela; Bernardini, Filippo; Comastri, Alberto; Boschi, Enzo

2004-07-01

On 29 June 1170 a large earthquake hit a vast area in the Near Eastern Mediterranean, comprising the present-day territories of western Syria, central southern Turkey, and Lebanon. Although this was one of the strongest seismic events ever to hit Syria, so far no in-depth or specific studies have been available. Furthermore, the seismological literature (from 1979 until 2000) only elaborated a partial summary of it, mainly based solely on Arabic sources. The major effects area was very partial, making the derived seismic parameters unreliable. This earthquake is in actual fact one of the most highly documented events of the medieval Mediterranean. This is due to both the particular historical period in which it had occurred (between the second and the third Crusades) and the presence of the Latin states in the territory of Syria. Some 50 historical sources, written in eight different languages, have been analyzed: Latin (major contributions), Arabic, Syriac, Armenian, Greek, Hebrew, Vulgar French, and Italian. A critical analysis of this extraordinary body of historical information has allowed us to obtain data on the effects of the earthquake at 29 locations, 16 of which were unknown in the previous scientific literature. As regards the seismic dynamics, this study has set itself the question of whether there was just one or more than one strong earthquake. In the former case, the parameters (Me 7.7 ± 0.22, epicenter, and fault length 126.2 km) were calculated. Some hypotheses are outlined concerning the seismogenic zones involved.

The susceptibility of young preschoolers to source similarity effects: confusing story or video events with reality.

PubMed

Thierry, Karen L; Pipe, Margaret-Ellen

2009-04-01

This study examined children's tendency to confuse events that varied in source similarity, which was manipulated using different media of event presentation. In Experiment 1, children in two age groups (3- and 4-year-olds and 5- and 6-year-olds) experienced a live presentation of an event, and another event was either heard from a story (low similarity group) or seen on a video (high similarity group). Immediately afterward, the children were asked to monitor the source of the events. The children in the low similarity group produced higher source discrimination scores than did the children in the high similarity group. Overall, the older children were better at source monitoring than were the younger children. In Experiment 2, the procedure was replicated except that the children's source monitoring was tested after a 4-day delay. When attributing the source of the story or video events, both 3- and 4-year-olds and 5- and 6-year-olds in the low similarity group produced more accurate story or video attributions than did their age mates in the high similarity group. However, when attributing the source of the live events, only the 3- and 4-year-olds evidenced this effect of source similarity. The 5- and 6-year-olds in both the low and high similarity groups performed at ceiling levels for live discriminations.

Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

PubMed

Paris, Raphaël

2015-10-28

Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

High-frequency observations and source parameters of microearthquakes recorded at hard-rock sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cranswick, Edward; Wetmiller, Robert; Boatwright, John

1985-01-01

We have estimated the source parameters of 53 microearthquakes recorded in July 1983 which were aftershocks of the Miramichi, New Brunswick, earthquake that occurred on 9 January 1982. These events were recorded by local three-component digital seismographs at 400 sps/component from 2-Hz velocity transducers sited directly on glacially scoured crystalline basement outcrop. Hypocentral distances are typically less than 5 km, and the hypocenters and the seven digital seismograph stations established all lie essentially within the boundaries of a granitic pluton that encompasses the faults that ruptured during the main shock and major aftershocks. The P-wave velocity is typically 5 km/sec at the surface and at least 6 km/sec at depths greater than about 1 km.The events have S-wave corner frequencies in the band 10 to 40 Hz, and the calculated Brune model seismic moments range from 1015 to 1018 dyne-cm. The corresponding stress drops are generally less than 1.0 bars, but there is considerable evidence that the seismic-source signals have been modified by propagation and/or site-effects. The data indicate: (a) there is a velocity discontinuity at 0.5 km depth; (b) the top layer has strong scattering/attenuating properties; (c) some source-receiver paths differentiate the propagated signal; (d) there is a hard-rock-site P-wave “fmax” between 50 and 100 Hz; and (e) some hard-rock sites are characterized by P-wave resonance frequencies in the range 50 to 100 Hz. Comparison of this dataset with the January 1982 New Brunswick digital seismograms which were recorded at sites underlain by several meters of low-velocity surface sediments suggests that some of the hard-rock-site phenomena listed above can be explained in terms of a layer-over-a-half-space model. For microearthquakes, this result implies that spectrally determined source dimension scales with site dimension (thickness of the layer). More generally, it emphasizes that it is very difficult to accurately observe the details of seismogenic processes from the earth's surface.

USGS GNSS Applications to Volcano Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisowski, M.; McCaffrey, R.

2015-12-01

Volcanic unrest is often identified by increased rates of seismicity, deformation, or the release of volcanic gases. Deformation results when ascending magma accumulates in crustal reservoirs, creates new pathways to the surface, or drains from magma reservoirs to feed an eruption. This volcanic deformation is overprinted by deformation from tectonic processes. GNSS monitoring of volcanoes captures transient volcanic deformation and steady and transient tectonic deformation, and we use the TDEFNODE software to unravel these effects. We apply the technique on portions of the Cascades Volcanic arc in central Oregon and in southern Washington that include a deforming volcano. In central Oregon, the regional TDEFNODE model consists of several blocks that rotate and deform internally and a decaying inflationary volcanic pressure source to reproduce the crustal bulge centered ~5 km west of South Sister. We jointly invert 47 interferograms that cover the interval from 1992 to 2010, as well as 2001 to 2015 continuous GNSS (cGNSS) and survey-mode (sGNSS) time series from stations in and around the Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake areas. A single, smoothly-decaying ~5 km deep spherical or prolate spheroid volcanic pressure source activated around 1998 provides the best fit to the combined geodetic data. In southern Washington, GNSS displacement time-series track decaying deflation of a ~8 km deep magma reservoir that fed the 2004 to 2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens. That deformation reversed when it began to recharge after the eruption ended. Offsets from slow slip events on the Cascadia subduction zone punctuate the GNSS displacement time series, and we remove them by estimating source parameters for these events. This regional TDEFNODE model extends from Mount Rainier south to Mount Hood, and additional volcanic sources could be added if these volcanoes start deforming. Other TDEFNODE regional models are planned for northern Washington (Mount Baker and Glacier Peak), northern California (Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Lassen Peak), and Long Valley. These models take advantage of the data from dense GNSS networks, they provide source parameters for volcanic and tectonic transients, and can be used to discriminate possible short- and long-term volcano- tectonic interactions.

Elastic parabolic equation solutions for oceanic T-wave generation and propagation from deep seismic sources.

PubMed

Frank, Scott D; Collis, Jon M; Odom, Robert I

2015-06-01

Oceanic T-waves are earthquake signals that originate when elastic waves interact with the fluid-elastic interface at the ocean bottom and are converted to acoustic waves in the ocean. These waves propagate long distances in the Sound Fixing and Ranging (SOFAR) channel and tend to be the largest observed arrivals from seismic events. Thus, an understanding of their generation is important for event detection, localization, and source-type discrimination. Recently benchmarked seismic self-starting fields are used to generate elastic parabolic equation solutions that demonstrate generation and propagation of oceanic T-waves in range-dependent underwater acoustic environments. Both downward sloping and abyssal ocean range-dependent environments are considered, and results demonstrate conversion of elastic waves into water-borne oceanic T-waves. Examples demonstrating long-range broadband T-wave propagation in range-dependent environments are shown. These results confirm that elastic parabolic equation solutions are valuable for characterization of the relationships between T-wave propagation and variations in range-dependent bathymetry or elastic material parameters, as well as for modeling T-wave receptions at hydrophone arrays or coastal receiving stations.

Determination of projection effects of CMEs using quadrature observations with the two STEREO spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronarska, K.; Michalek, G.

2018-07-01

Since 1995 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been routinely observed thanks to the sensitive Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraphs (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. Their observed characteristics are stored, among other, in the SOHO/LASCO catalog. These parameters are commonly used in scientific studies. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations of CMEs are subject to projection effects. This makes it practically impossible to determine the true properties of CMEs and therefore makes it more difficult to forecast their geoeffectiveness. In this study, using quadrature observations with the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecrafts, we estimate the projection effect affecting velocity of CMEs included in the SOHO/LASCO catalog. It was demonstrated that this effect depends significantly on width and source location of CMEs. It can be very significant for narrow events and originating from the disk center. The effect diminishes with increasing width and absolute longitude of source location of CMEs. For very wide (width ⩾ 250°) or limb events (| longitude ⩾ 70°) projection effects completely disappears.

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Source origin and parameters influencing levels of heavy metals in TSP, in an industrial background area of Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragosta, Maria; Caggiano, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Macchiato, Maria

In this paper, we investigate the relationships among atmospheric concentration of trace elements and some meteorological parameters. In particular, the effects of different meteorological conditions on heavy metal levels are interpreted by means of a multivariate statistical approach. The analysed variables were measured during a monitoring survey that started in 1997, and this survey was carried out in order to evaluate the atmospheric concentrations of heavy metals in the industrial area of Tito Scalo (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy). Here we present and analyse the data set collected from 1997 to 1999. The data set includes daily concentrations of total suspended particulates (TSP), daily concentrations of eight metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in TSP and daily meteoclimatic data (temperature, rainfall, speed and wind directions). Both the concentration level and the occurrence of peak concentration events are consistent with the characteristics of the study area: abundant small and medium industrial plants in a mountainous and unpolluted zone. Regarding the origin of sources of heavy metals in TSP, the statistical procedure allows us to identify three profiles: SP 1 and SP 2 related to industrial sources and SP 3 related to other sources (natural and/or anthropogenic). In particular, taking into account the effect of different meteorological conditions, we are able to distinguish the contribution of different fractions of the same metal in the detected source profiles.

Detection, Location, and Characterization of Hydroacoustic Signals Using Seafloor Cable Networks Offshore Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suyehiro, K.; Sugioka, H.; Watanabe, T.

2008-12-01

The hydroacoustic monitoring by the International Monitoring System for CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear- Test-Ban Treaty) verification system utilizes hydrophone stations (6) and seismic stations (5 and called T- phase stations) for worldwide detection. Some conspicuous signals of natural origin include those from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or whale calls. Among artificial sources are non-nuclear explosions and airgun shots. It is important for the IMS system to detect and locate hydroacoustic events with sufficient accuracy and correctly characterize the signals and identify the source. As there are a number of seafloor cable networks operated offshore Japanese islands basically facing the Pacific Ocean for monitoring regional seismicity, the data from these stations (pressure and seismic sensors) may be utilized to increase the capability of IMS. We use these data to compare some selected event parameters with those by IMS. In particular, there have been several unconventional acoustic signals in the western Pacific,which were also captured by IMS hydrophones across the Pacific in the time period of 2007-present. These anomalous examples and also dynamite shots used for seismic crustal structure studies and other natural sources will be presented in order to help improve the IMS verification capabilities for detection, location and characterization of anomalous signals.

Scaling differences between large interplate and intraplate earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholz, C. H.; Aviles, C. A.; Wesnousky, S. G.

1985-01-01

A study of large intraplate earthquakes with well determined source parameters shows that these earthquakes obey a scaling law similar to large interplate earthquakes, in which M sub o varies as L sup 2 or u = alpha L where L is rupture length and u is slip. In contrast to interplate earthquakes, for which alpha approximately equals 1 x .00001, for the intraplate events alpha approximately equals 6 x .0001, which implies that these earthquakes have stress-drops about 6 times higher than interplate events. This result is independent of focal mechanism type. This implies that intraplate faults have a higher frictional strength than plate boundaries, and hence, that faults are velocity or slip weakening in their behavior. This factor may be important in producing the concentrated deformation that creates and maintains plate boundaries.

FastSim: A Fast Simulation for the SuperB Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreassen, R.; Arnaud, N.; Brown, D. N.; Burmistrov, L.; Carlson, J.; Cheng, C.-h.; Di Simone, A.; Gaponenko, I.; Manoni, E.; Perez, A.; Rama, M.; Roberts, D.; Rotondo, M.; Simi, G.; Sokoloff, M.; Suzuki, A.; Walsh, J.

2011-12-01

We have developed a parameterized (fast) simulation for detector optimization and physics reach studies of the proposed SuperB Flavor Factory in Italy. Detector components are modeled as thin sections of planes, cylinders, disks or cones. Particle-material interactions are modeled using simplified cross-sections and formulas. Active detectors are modeled using parameterized response functions. Geometry and response parameters are configured using xml files with a custom-designed schema. Reconstruction algorithms adapted from BaBar are used to build tracks and clusters. Multiple sources of background signals can be merged with primary signals. Pattern recognition errors are modeled statistically by randomly misassigning nearby tracking hits. Standard BaBar analysis tuples are used as an event output. Hadronic B meson pair events can be simulated at roughly 10Hz.

Seismic detection and analysis of icequakes at Columbia Glacier, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neel, Shad; Marshall, Hans P.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Pfeffer, William Tad

2007-01-01

Contributions to sea level rise from rapidly retreating marine-terminating glaciers are large and increasing. Strong increases in iceberg calving occur during retreat, which allows mass transfer to the ocean at a much higher rate than possible through surface melt alone. To study this process, we deployed an 11-sensor passive seismic network at Columbia Glacier, Alaska, during 2004–2005. We show that calving events generate narrow-band seismic signals, allowing frequency domain detections. Detection parameters were determined using direct observations of calving and validated using three statistical methods and hypocenter locations. The 1–3 Hz detections provide a good measure of the temporal distribution and size of calving events. Possible source mechanisms for the unique waveforms are discussed, and we analyze potential forcings for the observed seismicity.

Systematic detection of long-term slow slip events along Hyuga-nada to central Shikoku, Nankai subduction zone, using GNSS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, R.; Obara, K.; Uchida, N.

2017-12-01

Understanding slow earthquake activity improves our knowledge of slip behavior in brittle-ductile transition zone and subduction process including megathrust earthquakes. In order to understand overall picture of slow slip activity, it is important to make a comprehensive catalog of slow slip events (SSEs). Although short-term SSEs have been detected by GNSS and tilt meter records systematically, analysis of long-term slow slip events relies on individual slip inversions. We develop an algorism to systematically detect long-term SSEs and estimate source parameters of the SSEs using GNSS data. The algorism is similar to GRiD-MT (Tsuruoka et al., 2009), which is grid-based automatic determination of moment tensor solution. Instead of moment tensor fitting to long period seismic records, we estimate parameters of a single rectangle fault to fit GNSS displacement time series. First, we make a two dimensional grid covering possible location of SSE. Second, we estimate best-fit parameters (length, width, slip, and rake) of the rectangle fault at each grid point by an iterative damped least square method. Depth, strike, and dip are fixed on the plate boundary. Ramp function with duration of 300 days is used for expressing time evolution of the fault slip. Third, a grid maximizing variance reduction is selected as a candidate of long-term SSE. We also search onset of ramp function based on the grid search. We applied the method to GNSS data in southwest Japan to detect long-term SSEs in Nankai subduction zone. With current selection criteria, we found 13 events with Mw6.2-6.9 in Hyuga-nada, Bungo channel, and central Shikoku from 1998 to 2015, which include unreported events. Key finding is along strike migrations of long-term SSEs from Hyuga-nada to Bungo channel and from Bungo channel to central Shikoku. In particular, three successive events migrating northward in Hyuga-nada preceded the 2003 Bungo channel SSE, and one event in central Shikoku followed the 2003 SSE in Bungo channel. The space-time dimensions of the possible along-strike migration are about 300km in length and 6 years in time. Systematic detection with assumptions of various durations in the time evolution of SSE may improve the picture of SSE activity and possible interaction with neighboring SSEs.

Integrated analysis of water quality parameters for cost-effective faecal pollution management in river catchments.

PubMed

Nnane, Daniel Ekane; Ebdon, James Edward; Taylor, Huw David

2011-03-01

In many parts of the world, microbial contamination of surface waters used for drinking, recreation, and shellfishery remains a pervasive risk to human health, especially in Less Economically Developed Countries (LEDC). However, the capacity to provide effective management strategies to break the waterborne route to human infection is often thwarted by our inability to identify the source of microbial contamination. Microbial Source Tracking (MST) has potential to improve water quality management in complex river catchments that are either routinely, or intermittently contaminated by faecal material from one or more sources, by attributing faecal loads to their human or non-human sources, and thereby supporting more rational approaches to microbial risk assessment. The River Ouse catchment in southeast England (U.K.) was used as a model with which to investigate the integration and application of a novel and simple MST approach to monitor microbial water quality over one calendar year, thereby encompassing a range of meteorological conditions. A key objective of the work was to develop simple low-cost protocols that could be easily replicated. Bacteriophages (viruses) capable of infecting a human specific strain of Bacteroides GB-124, and their correlation with presumptive Escherichia coli, were used to distinguish sources of faecal pollution. The results reported here suggest that in this river catchment the principal source of faecal pollution in most instances was non-human in origin. During storm events, presumptive E. coli and presumptive intestinal enterococci levels were 1.1-1.2 logs higher than during dry weather conditions, and levels of the faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) were closely associated with increased turbidity levels (presumptive E. coli and turbidity, r = 0.43). Spatio-temporal variation in microbial water quality parameters was accounted for by three principal components (67.6%). Cluster Analysis, reduced the fourteen monitoring sites to six representative 'sentinel' sites. The correlation coefficient between presumptive E. coli and phages of Bacteroides GB-124 was very small (r = 0.05) whilst that between turbidity and suspended solids was high (r = 0.62). Variations in climate, animal and anthropogenic interferences were all, either directly or indirectly, related to faecal contamination. The findings show the importance of meteorological conditions, such as storm events, on microbial water quality, and suggest that any future increases in the frequency of storm events (associated with climate change) are likely to result in a greater incidence of FIO/pathogen loads. This low-cost approach could help to predict spatio-temporal 'hotspots' of elevated waterborne disease risk. The work also represents an important step towards integrating novel MST tools into river catchment modelling. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contaminant point source localization error estimates as functions of data quantity and model quality

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Scott K.; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

2016-10-01

We develop empirically-grounded error envelopes for localization of a point contamination release event in the saturated zone of a previously uncharacterized heterogeneous aquifer into which a number of plume-intercepting wells have been drilled. We assume that flow direction in the aquifer is known exactly and velocity is known to within a factor of two of our best guess from well observations prior to source identification. Other aquifer and source parameters must be estimated by interpretation of well breakthrough data via the advection-dispersion equation. We employ high performance computing to generate numerous random realizations of aquifer parameters and well locations, simulatemore » well breakthrough data, and then employ unsupervised machine optimization techniques to estimate the most likely spatial (or space-time) location of the source. Tabulating the accuracy of these estimates from the multiple realizations, we relate the size of 90% and 95% confidence envelopes to the data quantity (number of wells) and model quality (fidelity of ADE interpretation model to actual concentrations in a heterogeneous aquifer with channelized flow). We find that for purely spatial localization of the contaminant source, increased data quantities can make up for reduced model quality. For space-time localization, we find similar qualitative behavior, but significantly degraded spatial localization reliability and less improvement from extra data collection. Since the space-time source localization problem is much more challenging, we also tried a multiple-initial-guess optimization strategy. Furthermore, this greatly enhanced performance, but gains from additional data collection remained limited.« less

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Earthquake Dynamics: Case Study of the Mw 8.3 Illapel Earthquake, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jiuxun; Denolle, Marine A.; Yao, Huajian

2018-01-01

We develop a methodology that combines compressive sensing backprojection (CS-BP) and source spectral analysis of teleseismic P waves to provide metrics relevant to earthquake dynamics of large events. We improve the CS-BP method by an autoadaptive source grid refinement as well as a reference source adjustment technique to gain better spatial and temporal resolution of the locations of the radiated bursts. We also use a two-step source spectral analysis based on (i) simple theoretical Green's functions that include depth phases and water reverberations and on (ii) empirical P wave Green's functions. Furthermore, we propose a source spectrogram methodology that provides the temporal evolution of dynamic parameters such as radiated energy and falloff rates. Bridging backprojection and spectrogram analysis provides a spatial and temporal evolution of these dynamic source parameters. We apply our technique to the recent 2015 Mw 8.3 megathrust Illapel earthquake (Chile). The results from both techniques are consistent and reveal a depth-varying seismic radiation that is also found in other megathrust earthquakes. The low-frequency content of the seismic radiation is located in the shallow part of the megathrust, propagating unilaterally from the hypocenter toward the trench while most of the high-frequency content comes from the downdip part of the fault. Interpretation of multiple rupture stages in the radiation is also supported by the temporal variations of radiated energy and falloff rates. Finally, we discuss the possible mechanisms, either from prestress, fault geometry, and/or frictional properties to explain our observables. Our methodology is an attempt to bridge kinematic observations with earthquake dynamics.

Spectroscopic Characterisation of Microlensing Events: Towards a New Interpretation of OGLE-2011-BLG-0417

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santerne, A.; Beaulieu, J.-P.; Rojas Ayala, B.; Boisse, I.; Schlawin, E.; Almenara, J.-M.; Batista, V.; Bennett, D.; Diaz, R. F.; Figueira, P.;

Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusiakov, V. K.

2014-12-01

Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

Source parameters derived from seismic spectrum in the Jalisco block

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, Q. J.; Escudero, C. R.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

2012-12-01

The direct measure of the earthquake fault dimension represent a complicated task nevertheless a better approach is using the seismic waves spectrum. With this method we can estimate the dimensions of the fault, the stress drop and the seismic moment. The study area comprises the complex tectonic configuration of Jalisco block and the subduction of the Rivera plate beneath the North American plate; this causes that occur in Jalisco some of the most harmful earthquakes and other related natural disasters. Accordingly it is important to monitor and perform studies that helps to understand the physics of earthquake rupture mechanism in the area. The main proposue of this study is estimate earthquake seismic source parameters. The data was recorded by the MARS network (Mapping the Riviera Subduction Zone) and the RESAJ network. MARS had 51 stations and settled in the Jalisco block; that is delimited by the mesoamerican trench at the west, the Colima grabben to the south, and the Tepic-Zacoalco to the north; for a period of time, of January 1, 2006 until December 31, 2007 Of this network was taken 104 events, the magnitude range of these was between 3 to 6.5 MB. RESJAL has 10 stations and is within the state of Jalisco, began to record since October 2011 and continues to record. We firs remove the trend, the mean and the instrument response, then manually chosen the S wave, then the multitaper method was used to obtain the spectrum of this wave and so estimate the corner frequency and the spectra level. We substitude the obtained in the equations of the Brune model to calculate the source parameters. Doing this we obtained the following results; the source radius was between .1 to 2 km, the stress drop was between .1 to 2 MPa.

Comparison of z-known GRBs with the Main Groups of Bright BATSE Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrofanov, Igor G.; Sanin, Anton B.; Anfimov, Dmitrij S.; Litvak, Maxim L.; Briggs, Michael S.; Paciesas, William S.; Pendleton, Geoffrey N.; Preece, Robert D.; Meegan, Charles A.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The small reference sample of six BATSE gamma-ray bursts with known redshifts from optical afterglows is compared with a comparison group of the 218 brightest BATSE bursts. These two groups are shown to be consistent both with respect to the distributions of the spectral peak parameter in the observer's frame and also with respect to the distributions of the frame-independent cosmological invariant parameter (CIP). Using the known values of the redshifts z for the reference sample, the rest-frame distribution of spectral parameters is built. The de-redshifted distribution of the spectral parameters of the reference sample is compared with distribution of these parameters for the comparison group after de-redshifting by the factor 1/(1+z), with z a free parameter. Requiring consistency between these two distributions produces a collective estimation of the best fitting redshifts z for the comparison group, z=1.8--3.6. These values can be considered as the average cosmological redshift of the sources of the brightest BATSE bursts. The most probable value of the peak energy of the spectrum in the rest frame is 920 keV, close to the rest mass of an electron-positron pair.

Efficient Moment-Based Inference of Admixture Parameters and Sources of Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Levin, Alex; Reich, David; Patterson, Nick; Berger, Bonnie

2013-01-01

The recent explosion in available genetic data has led to significant advances in understanding the demographic histories of and relationships among human populations. It is still a challenge, however, to infer reliable parameter values for complicated models involving many populations. Here, we present MixMapper, an efficient, interactive method for constructing phylogenetic trees including admixture events using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data. MixMapper implements a novel two-phase approach to admixture inference using moment statistics, first building an unadmixed scaffold tree and then adding admixed populations by solving systems of equations that express allele frequency divergences in terms of mixture parameters. Importantly, all features of the model, including topology, sources of gene flow, branch lengths, and mixture proportions, are optimized automatically from the data and include estimates of statistical uncertainty. MixMapper also uses a new method to express branch lengths in easily interpretable drift units. We apply MixMapper to recently published data for Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel individuals genotyped on a SNP array designed especially for use in population genetics studies, obtaining confident results for 30 populations, 20 of them admixed. Notably, we confirm a signal of ancient admixture in European populations—including previously undetected admixture in Sardinians and Basques—involving a proportion of 20–40% ancient northern Eurasian ancestry. PMID:23709261

Numerical and laboratory simulation of fault motion and earthquake occurrence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1978-01-01

Simple linear rheologies were used with elastic forces driving the main events and viscoelastic forces being important for aftershock and creep occurrence. Friction and its dependence on velocity, stress, and displacement also plays a key role in determining how, when, and where fault motion occurs. The discussion of the qualitative behavior of the simulators focuses on the manner in which energy was stored in the system and released by the unstable and stable sliding processes. The numerical results emphasize the statistics of earthquake occurrence and the correlations among source parameters.

Failure time analysis with unobserved heterogeneity: Earthquake duration time of Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ata, Nihal, E-mail: nihalata@hacettepe.edu.tr; Kadilar, Gamze Özel, E-mail: gamzeozl@hacettepe.edu.tr

Failure time models assume that all units are subject to same risks embodied in the hazard functions. In this paper, unobserved sources of heterogeneity that are not captured by covariates are included into the failure time models. Destructive earthquakes in Turkey since 1900 are used to illustrate the models and inter-event time between two consecutive earthquakes are defined as the failure time. The paper demonstrates how seismicity and tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatio-temporal variability of earthquakes and presents several advantages compared to more traditional approaches.

Simplifying Chandra aperture photometry with srcflux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Kenny

2014-11-01

This poster will highlight some of the features of the srcflux script in CIAO. This script combines many threads and tools together to compute photometric properties for sources: counts, rates, various fluxes, and confidence intervals or upper limits. Beginning and casual X-ray astronomers greatly benefit from the simple interface: just specify the event file and a celestial location, while power-users and X-ray astronomy experts can take advantage of the all the parameters to automatically produce catalogs for entire fields. Current limitations and future enhancements of the script will also be presented.

CTBT infrasound network performance to detect the 2013 Russian fireball event

DOE PAGES

Pilger, Christoph; Ceranna, Lars; Ross, J. Ole; ...

2015-03-18

The explosive fragmentation of the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteorite generated a large airburst with an equivalent yield of 500 kT TNT. It is the most energetic event recorded by the infrasound component of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty-International Monitoring System (CTBT-IMS), globally detected by 20 out of 42 operational stations. This study performs a station-by-station estimation of the IMS detection capability to explain infrasound detections and nondetections from short to long distances, using the Chelyabinsk meteorite as global reference event. Investigated parameters influencing the detection capability are the directivity of the line source signal, the ducting of acoustic energy, and the individualmore » noise conditions at each station. Findings include a clear detection preference for stations perpendicular to the meteorite trajectory, even over large distances. Only a weak influence of stratospheric ducting is observed for this low-frequency case. As a result, a strong dependence on the diurnal variability of background noise levels at each station is observed, favoring nocturnal detections.« less

Host galaxy identification for binary black hole mergers with long baseline gravitational wave detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, E. J.; Chan, M. L.; Chu, Q.; Jones, D. H.; Heng, I. S.; Lee, H.-M.; Blair, D.; Degallaix, J.; Regimbau, T.; Miao, H.; Zhao, C.; Hendry, M.; Coward, D.; Messenger, C.; Ju, L.; Zhu, Z.-H.

2018-03-01

The detection of black hole binary coalescence events by Advanced LIGO allows the science benefits of future detectors to be evaluated. In this paper, we report the science benefits of one or two 8 km arm length detectors based on the doubling of key parameters in an Advanced LIGO-type detector, combined with realizable enhancements. It is shown that the total detection rate for sources similar to those already detected would increase to ˜ 103-105 per year. Within 0.4 Gpc, we find that around 10 of these events would be localizable to within ˜10-1 deg2. This is sufficient to make unique associations or to rule out a direct association with the brightest galaxies in optical surveys (at r-band magnitudes of 17 or above) or for deeper limits (down to r-band magnitudes of 20) yield statistically significant associations. The combination of angular resolution and event rate would benefit precision testing of formation models, cosmic evolution, and cosmological studies.

Distributing entanglement and single photons through an intra-city, free-space quantum channel.

PubMed

Resch, K; Lindenthal, M; Blauensteiner, B; Böhm, H; Fedrizzi, A; Kurtsiefer, C; Poppe, A; Schmitt-Manderbach, T; Taraba, M; Ursin, R; Walther, P; Weier, H; Weinfurter, H; Zeilinger, A

2005-01-10

We have distributed entangled photons directly through the atmosphere to a receiver station 7.8 km away over the city of Vienna, Austria at night. Detection of one photon from our entangled pairs constitutes a triggered single photon source from the sender. With no direct time-stable connection, the two stations found coincidence counts in the detection events by calculating the cross-correlation of locally-recorded time stamps shared over a public internet channel. For this experiment, our quantum channel was maintained for a total of 40 minutes during which time a coincidence lock found approximately 60000 coincident detection events. The polarization correlations in those events yielded a Bell parameter, S=2.27+/-0.019, which violates the CHSH-Bell inequality by 14 standard deviations. This result is promising for entanglement-based freespace quantum communication in high-density urban areas. It is also encouraging for optical quantum communication between ground stations and satellites since the length of our free-space link exceeds the atmospheric equivalent.

High-frequency ground-motion parameters from weak-motion data in the Sicily Channel and surrounding regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, Sebastiano; Akinci, Aybige; Pischiutta, Marta

2018-07-01

In this paper we characterize the high-frequency (1.0-10 Hz) seismic wave crustal attenuation and the source excitation in the Sicily Channel and surrounding regions using background seismicity from weak-motion database. The data set includes 15 995 waveforms related to earthquakes having local magnitude ranging from 2.0 to 4.5 recorded between 2006 and 2012. The observed and predicted ground motions form the weak-motion data are evaluated in several narrow frequency bands from 0.25 to 20.0 Hz. The filtered observed peaks are regressed to specify a proper functional form for the regional attenuation, excitation and site specific term separately. The results are then used to calibrate effective theoretical attenuation and source excitation models using the random vibration theory. In the log-log domain, the regional seismic wave attenuation and the geometrical spreading coefficient are modelled together. The geometrical spreading coefficient, g(r), modelled with a bilinear piecewise functional form and given as g(r) ∝ r-1.0 for the short distances (r < 50 km) and as g(r) ∝ r-0.8 for the larger distances (r < 50 km). A frequency-dependent quality factor, inverse of the seismic attenuation parameter, Q(f)=160f/fref0. 35 (where fref = 1.0 Hz), is combined to the geometrical spreading. The source excitation terms are defined at a selected reference distance with a magnitude-independent roll-off spectral parameter, κ 0.04 s and with a Brune stress drop parameter increasing with moment magnitude, from Δσ = 2 MPa for Mw = 2.0 to Δσ = 13 MPa for Mw = 4.5. For events M ≤ 4.5 (being Mwmax = 4.5 available in the data set) the stress parameters are obtained by correlating the empirical/excitation source spectra with the Brune spectral model as function of magnitude. For the larger magnitudes (Mw>4.5) outside the range available in the calibration data set where we do not have recorded data, we extrapolate our results through the calibration of the stress parameters of the Brune source spectrum over the Bindi et al.ground-motion prediction equation selected as a reference model (hereafter also ITA10). Finally, the weak-motion-based model parameters are used through a stochastic approach in order to predict a set of region specific spectral ground-motion parameters (peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 0.3 and 1.0 Hz spectral acceleration) relative to the generic rock site as a function of distance between 10 and 250 km and magnitude between M 2.0 and M 7.0.

Self-organized criticality in a two-dimensional cellular automaton model of a magnetic flux tube with background flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dănilă, B.; Harko, T.; Mocanu, G.

2015-11-01

We investigate the transition to self-organized criticality in a two-dimensional model of a flux tube with a background flow. The magnetic induction equation, represented by a partial differential equation with a stochastic source term, is discretized and implemented on a two-dimensional cellular automaton. The energy released by the automaton during one relaxation event is the magnetic energy. As a result of the simulations, we obtain the time evolution of the energy release, of the system control parameter, of the event lifetime distribution and of the event size distribution, respectively, and we establish that a self-organized critical state is indeed reached by the system. Moreover, energetic initial impulses in the magnetohydrodynamic flow can lead to one-dimensional signatures in the magnetic two-dimensional system, once the self-organized critical regime is established. The applications of the model for the study of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is briefly considered, and it is shown that some astrophysical parameters of the bursts, like the light curves, the maximum released energy and the number of peaks in the light curve can be reproduced and explained, at least on a qualitative level, by working in a framework in which the systems settles in a self-organized critical state via magnetic reconnection processes in the magnetized GRB fireball.

Occurrence of high-beta superthermal plasma events in the close environment of Jupiter's bow shock as observed by Ulysses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marhavilas, P. K.; Sarris, E. T.; Anagnostopoulos, G. C.

2011-01-04

The ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic field pressure (or of their energy densities) which is known as the plasma parameter 'beta'({beta}) has important implications to the propagation of energetic particles and the interaction of the solar wind with planetary magnetospheres. Although in the scientific literature the contribution of the superthermal particles to the plasma pressure is generally assumed negligible, we deduced, by analyzing energetic particles and magnetic field measurements recorded by the Ulysses spacecraft, that in a series of events, the energy density contained in the superthermal tail of the particle distribution is comparable to or evenmore » higher than the energy density of the magnetic field, creating conditions of high-beta plasma. More explicitly, in this paper we analyze Ulysses/HI-SCALE measurements of the energy density ratio (parameter {beta}{sub ep}) of the energetic ions'(20 keV to {approx}5 MeV) to the magnetic field's in order to find occurrences of high-beta ({beta}{sub ep}>1) superthermal plasma conditions in the environment of the Jovian magnetosphere, which is an interesting plasma laboratory and an important source of emissions in our solar system. In particular, we examine high-beta ion events close to Jupiter's bow shock, which are produced by two processes: (a) bow shock ion acceleration and (b) ion leakage from the magnetosphere.« less

Intra-event variability of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids in urban stormwater runoff.

PubMed

McCarthy, D T; Hathaway, J M; Hunt, W F; Deletic, A

2012-12-15

Sediment levels are important for environmental health risk assessments of surface water bodies, while faecal pollution can introduce significant public health risks for users of these systems. Urban stormwater is one of the largest sources of contaminants to surface waters, yet the fate and transport of these contaminants (especially those microbiological) have received little attention in the literature. Stormwater runoff from five urbanized catchments were monitored for pathogen indicator bacteria and total suspended solids in two developed countries. Multiple discrete samples were collected during each storm event, allowing an analysis of intra-event characteristics such as initial concentration, peak concentration, maximum rate of change, and relative confidence interval. The data suggest that a catchment's area influences pollutant characteristics, as larger catchments have more complex stormwater infrastructure and more variable pollutant sources. The variability of total suspended solids for many characteristics was similar to Escherichia coli, indicating that the variability of E. coli may not be substantially higher than that of other pollutants as initially speculated. Further, variations in E. coli appeared to be more commonly correlated to antecedent climate, while total suspended solids were more highly correlated to rainfall/runoff characteristics. This emphasizes the importance of climate on microbial persistence and die off in urban systems. Discrete intra-event concentrations of total suspended solids and, to a lesser extent E. coli, were correlated to flow, velocity, and rainfall intensity (adjusted by time of concentrations). Concentration changes were found to be best described by adjusted rainfall intensity, as shown by other researchers. This study has resulted in an increased understanding of the magnitude of intra-event variations of total suspended solids and E. coli and what physical and climatic parameters influence these variations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ``exceptional'' earthquake of 3 January 1117 in the Verona area (northern Italy): A critical time review and detection of two lost earthquakes (lower Germany and Tuscany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidoboni, Emanuela; Comastri, Alberto; Boschi, Enzo

2005-12-01

In the seismological literature the 3 January 1117 earthquake represents an interesting case study, both for the sheer size of the area in which that event is recorded by the monastic sources of the 12th century, and for the amount of damage mentioned. The 1117 event has been added to the earthquake catalogues of up to five European countries (Italy, France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Iberian peninsula), and it is the largest historical earthquake for northern Italy. We have analyzed the monastic time system in the 12th century and, by means of a comparative analysis of the sources, have correlated the two shocks mentioned (in the night and in the afternoon of 3 January) to territorial effects, seeking to make the overall picture reported for Europe more consistent. The connection between the linguistic indications and the localization of the effects has allowed us to shed light, with a reasonable degree of approximation, upon two previously little known earthquakes, probably generated by a sequence of events. A first earthquake in lower Germany (I0 (epicentral intensity) VII-VIII MCS (Mercalli, Cancani, Sieberg), M 6.4) preceded the far more violent one in northern Italy (Verona area) by about 12-13 hours. The second event is the one reported in the literature. We have put forward new parameters for this Veronese earthquake (I0 IX MCS, M 7.0). A third earthquake is independently recorded in the northwestern area of Tuscany (Imax VII-VIII MCS), but for the latter event the epicenter and magnitude cannot be evaluated.

Distribution of Attenuation Factor Beneath the Japanese Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujihara, S.; Hashimoto, M.

2001-12-01

In this research, we tried to estimate the distribution of attenuation factor of seismic wave, which is closely related to the above-mentioned inelastic parameters. Here the velocity records of events from the Freesia network and the J-array network were used. The events were selected based on the following criteria: (a) events with JMA magnitudes from 3.8 to 5.0 and hypocentral distance from 20km to 200km, (b) events with JMA magnitudes from 5.1 to 6.8 and hypocentral distance from 200km to 10_?, (c) Depth of all events is greater than 30km with S/N ratio greater than 2. After correcting the instrument response, P-wave spectra were estimated. Following Boatwright (1991), the observed spectra were modeled by the theoretical spectra by assuming the following relation; Aij(f) = Si(f) Pij(f) Cj(f). Brune's model (1970) was assumed for the source model. Aij(f), Si(f), Pij(f), and Cj(f) are defined as observed spectrum, source spectrum, propagation effect, and site effect, respectively. Frequency dependence of attenuation factor was not assumed here. The global standard velocity model (AK135) is used for ray tracing. Ellipticity corrections and station elevation corrections are also done. The block sizes are 50km by 50km laterally and increase vertically. As the results of analysis, the attenuation structure beneath Japanese Islands up to the depth of 180km was reconstructed with relatively good resolution. The low Q distribution is clearly seen in central Hokkaido, western Hokkaido, Tohoku region, Hida region, Izu region, and southern Kyushu. The relatively sharp decrease in Q associated with asthenosphere can be seen below the depth of 70km.

Precipitation induced stream flow: An event based chemical and isotopic study of a small stream in the Great Plains region of the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machavaram, M.V.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Conrad, M.E.; Miller, N.L.

2006-01-01

A small stream in the Great Plains of USA was sampled to understand the streamflow components following intense precipitation and the influence of water storage structures in the drainage basin. Precipitation, stream, ponds, ground-water and soil moisture were sampled for determination of isotopic (D, 18O) and chemical (Cl, SO4) composition before and after two intense rain events. Following the first storm event, flow at the downstream locations was generated primarily through shallow subsurface flow and runoff whereas in the headwaters region - where a pond is located in the stream channel - shallow ground-water and pond outflow contributed to the flow. The distinct isotopic signatures of precipitation and the evaporated pond water allowed separation of the event water from the other sources that contributed to the flow. Similarly, variations in the Cl and SO4 concentrations helped identify the relative contributions of ground-water and soil moisture to the streamflow. The relationship between deuterium excess and Cl or SO4 content reveals that the early contributions from a rain event to streamflow depend upon the antecedent climatic conditions and the position along the stream channel within the watershed. The design of this study, in which data from several locations within a watershed were collected, shows that in small streams changes in relative contributions from ground water and soil moisture complicate hydrograph separation, with surface-water bodies providing additional complexity. It also demonstrates the usefulness of combined chemical and isotopic methods in hydrologic investigations, especially the utility of the deuterium excess parameter in quantifying the relative contributions of various source components to the stream flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

2015-12-01

Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

Study of the Residual Background Events in Ground Data from the ASTRO-HSXS Microcalorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilbourne, Caroline A.; Boyce, Kevin R.; Chiao, M. P.; Eckart, M. E.; Kelley, R. L.; Leutenegger, M. A.; Porter, F. S.; Watanabe, T.; Ishisaki, Y.; Yamada, S.;

A robust calibration technique for acoustic emission systems based on momentum transfer from a ball drop

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Lockner, David A.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

2015-01-01

We describe a technique to estimate the seismic moment of acoustic emissions and other extremely small seismic events. Unlike previous calibration techniques, it does not require modeling of the wave propagation, sensor response, or signal conditioning. Rather, this technique calibrates the recording system as a whole and uses a ball impact as a reference source or empirical Green’s function. To correctly apply this technique, we develop mathematical expressions that link the seismic moment $M_{0}$ of internal seismic sources (i.e., earthquakes and acoustic emissions) to the impulse, or change in momentum $\\Delta p $, of externally applied seismic sources (i.e., meteor impacts or, in this case, ball impact). We find that, at low frequencies, moment and impulse are linked by a constant, which we call the force‐moment‐rate scale factor $C_{F\\dot{M}} = M_{0}/\\Delta p$. This constant is equal to twice the speed of sound in the material from which the seismic sources were generated. Next, we demonstrate the calibration technique on two different experimental rock mechanics facilities. The first example is a saw‐cut cylindrical granite sample that is loaded in a triaxial apparatus at 40 MPa confining pressure. The second example is a 2 m long fault cut in a granite sample and deformed in a large biaxial apparatus at lower stress levels. Using the empirical calibration technique, we are able to determine absolute source parameters including the seismic moment, corner frequency, stress drop, and radiated energy of these magnitude −2.5 to −7 seismic events.

Present Kinematic Regime and Recent Seismicity of Gulf Suez, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamed, G.-E. A.; Abd El-Aal, A. K.

2018-01-01

In this study we computed recent seismicity and present kinematic regime in the northern and middle zones of Gulf of Suez as inferred from moment tensor settlings and focal mechanism of local earthquakes that happened in this region. On 18 and 22 of July, 2014 two moderate size earthquakes of local magnitudes 4.2 and 4.1 struck the northern zone of Gulf of Suez near Suez City. These events are instrumentally recorded by Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN). The earthquakes have been felt at Suez City and greater Cairo metropolitan zone while no losses were reported. The source mechanism and source parameters of the calculated events were considered by the near-source waveform data listed at very broadband stations of ENSN and supported by the P-wave polarity data of short period stations. The new settling method and software used deem the action of the source time function, which has been ignored in most of the program series of the moment tensor settling analysis with near source seismograms. The obtained results from settling technique indicate that the estimated seismic moments of both earthquakes are 0.6621E + 15 and 0.4447E + 15 Nm conforming to a moment magnitude Mw 3.8 and 3.7 respectively. The fault plan settlings obtained from both settling technique and polarity of first-arrival indicate the dominance of normal faulting. We also evaluated the stress field in north and middle zones of Gulf of Suez using a multiple inverse method. The prime strain axis shows that the deformation is taken up mainly as stretching in the E-W and NE-SW direction.

Forecasting E > 50-MeV proton events with the proton prediction system (PPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahler, Stephen W.; White, Stephen M.; Ling, Alan G.

2017-11-01

Forecasting solar energetic (E > 10-MeV) particle (SEP) events is an important element of space weather. While several models have been developed for use in forecasting such events, satellite operations are particularly vulnerable to higher-energy (≥50-MeV) SEP events. Here we validate one model, the proton prediction system (PPS), which extends to that energy range. We first develop a data base of E ≥ 50-MeV proton events >1.0 proton flux units (pfu) events observed on the GOES satellite over the period 1986-2016. We modify the PPS to forecast proton events at the reduced level of 1 pfu and run PPS for four different solar input parameters: (1) all ≥M5 solar X-ray flares; (2) all ≥200 sfu 8800-MHz bursts with associated ≥M5 flares; (3) all ≥500 sfu 8800-MHz bursts; and (4) all ≥5000 sfu 8800-MHz bursts. The validation contingency tables and skill scores are calculated for all groups and used as a guide to use of the PPS. We plot the false alarms and missed events as functions of solar source longitude, and argue that the longitude-dependence employed by PPS does not match modern observations. Use of the radio fluxes as the PPS driver tends to result in too many false alarms at the 500 sfu threshold, and misses more events than the soft X-ray predictor at the 5000 sfu threshold.

The trigger mechanism of low-frequency earthquakes on Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, J. W.; Tuffen, H.; Collier, L.; Green, D.; Powell, T.; Dingwell, D.

2006-05-01

A careful analysis of low-frequency seismic events on Soufrièere Hills volcano, Montserrat, points to a source mechanism that is non-destructive, repetitive, and has a stationary source location. By combining these seismological clues with new field evidence and numerical magma flow modelling, we propose a seismic trigger model which is based on brittle failure of magma in the glass transition. Loss of heat and gas from the magma results in a strong viscosity gradient across a dyke or conduit. This leads to a build-up of shear stress near the conduit wall where magma can rupture in a brittle manner, as field evidence from a rhyolitic dyke demonstrates. This brittle failure provides seismic energy, the majority of which is trapped in the conduit or dyke forming the low-frequency coda of the observed seismic signal. The trigger source location marks the transition from ductile conduit flow to friction-controlled magma ascent. As the trigger mechanism is governed by the depth-dependent magma parameters, the source location remains fixed at a depth where the conditions allow brittle failure. This is reflected in the fixed seismic source locations.

Total electron content responses to HILDCAAs and geomagnetic storms over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mara de Siqueira Negreti, Patricia; Rodrigues de Paula, Eurico; Nicoli Candido, Claudia Maria

2017-12-01

Total electron content (TEC) is extensively used to monitor the ionospheric behavior under geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. This subject is of greatest importance for space weather applications. Under disturbed conditions the two main sources of electric fields, which are responsible for changes in the plasma drifts and for current perturbations, are the short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) and the longer-lasting ionospheric disturbance dynamo (DD) electric fields. Both mechanisms modulate the TEC around the globe and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) at low latitudes. In this work we computed vertical absolute TEC over the low latitude of South America. The analysis was performed considering HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity) events and geomagnetic storms. The characteristics of storm-time TEC and HILDCAA-associated TEC will be presented and discussed. For both case studies presented in this work (March and August 2013) the HILDCAA event follows a geomagnetic storm, and then a global scenario of geomagnetic disturbances will be discussed. Solar wind parameters, geomagnetic indices, O / N2 ratios retrieved by GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite and TEC observations will be analyzed and discussed. Data from the RBMC/IBGE (Brazil) and IGS GNSS networks were used to calculate TEC over South America. We show that a HILDCAA event may generate larger TEC differences compared to the TEC observed during the main phase of the precedent geomagnetic storm; thus, a HILDCAA event may be more effective for ionospheric response in comparison to moderate geomagnetic storms, considering the seasonal conditions. During the August HILDCAA event, TEC enhancements from ˜ 25 to 80 % (compared to quiet time) were observed. These enhancements are much higher than the quiet-time variability observed in the ionosphere. We show that ionosphere is quite sensitive to solar wind forcing and considering the events studied here, this was the most important source of ionospheric responses. Furthermore, the most important source of TEC changes were the long-lasting PPEFs observed on August 2013, during the HILDCAA event. The importance of this study relies on the peculiarity of the region analyzed characterized by high declination angle and ionospheric gradients which are responsible for creating a complex response during disturbed periods.

Cosmic mass spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchordoqui, Luis A.; Barger, Vernon; Weiler, Thomas J.

2018-03-01

We argue that if ultrahigh-energy (E ≳1010GeV) cosmic rays are heavy nuclei (as indicated by existing data), then the pointing of cosmic rays to their nearest extragalactic sources is expected for 1010.6 ≲ E /GeV ≲1011. This is because for a nucleus of charge Ze and baryon number A, the bending of the cosmic ray decreases as Z / E with rising energy, so that pointing to nearby sources becomes possible in this particular energy range. In addition, the maximum energy of acceleration capability of the sources grows linearly in Z, while the energy loss per distance traveled decreases with increasing A. Each of these two points tend to favor heavy nuclei at the highest energies. The traditional bi-dimensional analyses, which simultaneously reproduce Auger data on the spectrum and nuclear composition, may not be capable of incorporating the relative importance of all these phenomena. In this paper we propose a multi-dimensional reconstruction of the individual emission spectra (in E, direction, and cross-correlation with nearby putative sources) to study the hypothesis that primaries are heavy nuclei subject to GZK photo-disintegration, and to determine the nature of the extragalactic sources. More specifically, we propose to combine information on nuclear composition and arrival direction to associate a potential clustering of events with a 3-dimensional position in the sky. Actually, both the source distance and maximum emission energy can be obtained through a multi-parameter likelihood analysis to accommodate the observed nuclear composition of each individual event in the cluster. We show that one can track the level of GZK interactions on an statistical basis by comparing the maximum energy at the source of each cluster. We also show that nucleus-emitting-sources exhibit a cepa stratis structure on Earth which could be pealed off by future space-missions, such as POEMMA. Finally, we demonstrate that metal-rich starburst galaxies are highly-plausible candidate sources, and we use them as an explicit example of our proposed multi-dimensional analysis.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C. J.; Berger, B. K.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Carbon Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H. P.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devine, C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, Nam-Gyu; Kim, Namjun; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Kokeyama, K.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B. M.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Luo, J.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S. S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Röver, C.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Setyawati, Y.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J. V.; Vañó-Viñuales, A.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Brügamin, B.; Campanelli, M.; Clark, M.; Hamberger, D.; Kidder, L. E.; Kinsey, M.; Laguna, P.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M. A.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Zlochower, Y.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2016-06-01

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 3 6-4+5M⊙ and 2 9-4+4M⊙ ; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be <0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 41 0-180+160 Mpc , corresponding to a redshift 0.0 9-0.04+0.03 assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610 deg2 , primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 6 2-4+4M⊙ and spin 0.6 7-0.07+0.05. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Camp, J. B.

2016-01-01

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36(+5/-4) solar mass and 29(+4/-4) solar mass; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be less than 0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410(+160/-180) Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09(+0.03/-0.04) assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610 sq deg, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62(+4/-4) solar mass and spin 0.67(+0.05/-0.07). This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914.

PubMed

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Owen, B J; Pai, A; Pai, S A; Palamos, J R; Palashov, O; Palomba, C; Pal-Singh, A; Pan, H; Pan, Y; Pankow, C; Pannarale, F; Pant, B C; Paoletti, F; Paoli, A; Papa, M A; Paris, H R; Parker, W; Pascucci, D; Pasqualetti, A; Passaquieti, R; Passuello, D; Patricelli, B; Patrick, Z; Pearlstone, B L; Pedraza, M; Pedurand, R; Pekowsky, L; Pele, A; Penn, S; Perreca, A; Pfeiffer, H P; Phelps, M; Piccinni, O; Pichot, M; Piergiovanni, F; Pierro, V; Pillant, G; Pinard, L; Pinto, I M; Pitkin, M; Poggiani, R; Popolizio, P; Post, A; Powell, J; Prasad, J; Predoi, V; Premachandra, S S; Prestegard, T; Price, L R; Prijatelj, M; Principe, M; Privitera, S; Prodi, G A; Prokhorov, L; Puncken, O; Punturo, M; Puppo, P; Pürrer, M; Qi, H; Qin, J; Quetschke, V; Quintero, E A; Quitzow-James, R; Raab, F J; Rabeling, D S; Radkins, H; Raffai, P; Raja, S; Rakhmanov, M; Rapagnani, P; Raymond, V; Razzano, M; Re, V; Read, J; Reed, C M; Regimbau, T; Rei, L; Reid, S; Reitze, D H; Rew, H; Reyes, S D; Ricci, F; Riles, K; Robertson, N A; Robie, R; Robinet, F; Rocchi, A; Rolland, L; Rollins, J G; Roma, V J; Romano, R; Romanov, G; Romie, J H; Rosińska, D; Röver, C; Rowan, S; Rüdiger, A; Ruggi, P; Ryan, K; Sachdev, S; Sadecki, T; Sadeghian, L; Salconi, L; Saleem, M; Salemi, F; Samajdar, A; Sammut, L; Sanchez, E J; Sandberg, V; Sandeen, B; Sanders, J R; Sassolas, B; Sathyaprakash, B S; Saulson, P R; Sauter, O; Savage, R L; Sawadsky, A; Schale, P; Schilling, R; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P; Schnabel, R; Schofield, R M S; Schönbeck, A; Schreiber, E; Schuette, D; Schutz, B F; Scott, J; Scott, S M; Sellers, D; Sengupta, A S; Sentenac, D; Sequino, V; Sergeev, A; Serna, G; Setyawati, Y; Sevigny, A; Shaddock, D A; Shah, S; Shahriar, M S; Shaltev, M; Shao, Z; Shapiro, B; Shawhan, P; Sheperd, A; Shoemaker, D H; Shoemaker, D M; Siellez, K; Siemens, X; Sigg, D; Silva, A D; Simakov, D; Singer, A; Singer, L P; Singh, A; Singh, R; Singhal, A; Sintes, A M; Slagmolen, B J J; Smith, J R; Smith, N D; Smith, R J E; Son, E J; Sorazu, B; Sorrentino, F; Souradeep, T; Srivastava, A K; Staley, A; Steinke, M; Steinlechner, J; Steinlechner, S; Steinmeyer, D; Stephens, B C; Stevenson, S P; Stone, R; Strain, K A; Straniero, N; Stratta, G; Strauss, N A; Strigin, S; Sturani, R; Stuver, A L; Summerscales, T Z; Sun, L; Sutton, P J; Swinkels, B L; Szczepańczyk, M J; Tacca, M; Talukder, D; Tanner, D B; Tápai, M; Tarabrin, S P; Taracchini, A; Taylor, R; Theeg, T; Thirugnanasambandam, M P; Thomas, E G; Thomas, M; Thomas, P; Thorne, K A; Thorne, K S; Thrane, E; Tiwari, S; Tiwari, V; Tokmakov, K V; Tomlinson, C; Tonelli, M; Torres, C V; Torrie, C I; Töyrä, D; Travasso, F; Traylor, G; Trifirò, D; Tringali, M C; Trozzo, L; Tse, M; Turconi, M; Tuyenbayev, D; Ugolini, D; Unnikrishnan, C S; Urban, A L; Usman, S A; Vahlbruch, H; Vajente, G; Valdes, G; van Bakel, N; van Beuzekom, M; van den Brand, J F J; Van Den Broeck, C; Vander-Hyde, D C; van der Schaaf, L; van der Sluys, M V; van Heijningen, J V; Vañó-Viñuales, A; van Veggel, A A; Vardaro, M; Vass, S; Vasúth, M; 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Laguna, P; Ossokine, S; Scheel, M A; Szilagyi, B; Teukolsky, S; Zlochower, Y

2016-06-17

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36_{-4}^{+5}M_{⊙} and 29_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙}; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be <0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410_{-180}^{+160}  Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09_{-0.04}^{+0.03} assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610  deg^{2}, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62_{-4}^{+4}M_{⊙} and spin 0.67_{-0.07}^{+0.05}. This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knudsen, J.K.; Smith, C.L.

The steps involved to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accident sequence precursor (ASP) models is covered in this paper. Three different uncertainty distributions (i.e., lognormal, beta, gamma) were evaluated to Determine the most appropriate distribution. From the evaluation, it was Determined that the lognormal distribution will be used for the ASP models uncertainty parameters. Selection of the uncertainty parameters for the basic events is also discussed. This paper covers the process of determining uncertainty parameters for the supercomponent basic events (i.e., basic events that are comprised of more than one component which can have more thanmore » one failure mode) that are utilized in the ASP models. Once this is completed, the ASP model is ready to be utilized to propagate parameter uncertainty for event assessments.« less

Hydro-fractured reservoirs: A study using double-difference location techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Dan Scott

The mapping of induced seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems presents the best tool available for understanding the resulting hydro-fractured reservoir. In this thesis, two geothermal systems are studied; one in Krafla, Iceland and the other in Basel Switzerland. The purpose of the Krafla survey was to determine the relation between water injection into the fault system and the resulting earthquakes and fluid pressure in the subsurface crack system. The epicenters obtained from analyzing the seismic data gave a set of locations that are aligned along the border of a high resistivity zone ˜2500 meters below the injection well. Further magneto-telluric/seismic-data correlation was seen in the polarity of the cracks through shear wave splitting. The purpose of the Basel project was to examine the creation of a reservoir by the initial stimulation, using an injection well bored to 5000 meters. This stimulation triggered a M3.4 event, extending the normal range of event sizes commonly incurred in hydro-fractured reservoirs. To monitor the seismic activity 6 seismometer sondes were deployed at depths from 317 to 2740 meters below the ground surface. During the seven-day period over 13,000 events were recorded and approximately 3,300 located. These events were first located by single-difference techniques. Subsequently, after calculating their cross-correlation coefficients, clusters of events were relocated using a double-difference algorithm. The event locations support the existence of a narrow reservoir spreading form the injection well. Analysis of the seismic data indicates that the reservoir grew at a uniform rate punctuated by fluctuations which occurred at times of larger events, which were perhaps caused by sudden changes in pressure. The orientation and size of the main fracture plane was found by determining focal mechanisms and locating events that were similar to the M3.4 event. To address the question of whether smaller quakes are simply larger quakes scaled down, the data set was analyzed to determine whether scaling relations held for the source parameters, including seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, radiated energy and apparent stress. It was found that there was a breakdown in scaling for smaller quakes.

Earthquake source parameter and focal mechanism estimates for the Western Quebec Seismic Zone in eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Padilla, A. M.; Onwuemeka, J.; Liu, Y.; Harrington, R. M.

2017-12-01

The Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) is a 160-km-wide band of intraplate seismicity extending 500 km from the Adirondack Highlands (United States) to the Laurentian uplands (Canada). Historically, the WQSZ has experienced over fifteen earthquakes above magnitude 5, with the noteworthy MN5.2 Ladysmith event on May 17, 2013. Previous studies have associated seismicity in the area to the reactivation of Early Paleozoic normal faults within a failed Iapetan rift arm, or strength contrasts between mafic intrusions and felsic rocks due to the Mesozoic track of the Great Meteor hotspot. A good understanding of seismicity and its relation to pre-existing structures requires information about event source properties, such as static stress drop and fault plane orientation, which can be constrained via spectral analysis and focal mechanism solutions. Using data recorded by the CNSN and USArray Transportable Array, we first characterize b-value for 709 events between 2012 and 2016 in WQSZ, obtaining a value of 0.75. We then determine corner frequency and seismic moment values by fitting S-wave spectra on transverse components at all stations for 35 events MN 2.7+. We select event pairs with highly similar waveforms, proximal hypocenters, and magnitudes differing by 1-2 units. Our preliminary results using single-station spectra show corner frequencies of 15 to 40 Hz and stress drop values between 7 and 130 MPa, typical of intraplate seismicity. Last, we solve focal mechanism solutions of 35 events with impulsive P-wave arrivals at a minimum of 8 stations using the hybridMT moment tensor inversion algorithm. Our preliminary results suggest predominantly thrust faulting mechanisms, and at times oblique thrust faulting. The P-axis trend of the focal mechanism solutions suggests a principal stress orientation of NE-SW, which is consistent with that derived from focal mechanisms of earthquakes prior to 2013. We plan to fit the event pair spectral ratios to correct for attenuation effects and more accurately constrain the corner frequency values which can lead to more accurate static stress drop estimates, particularly of the larger events within an event pair.

Stable isotopes in water vapor and precipitation for a coastal lagoon at mid latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zannoni, Daniele; Bergamasco, Andrea; Dreossi, Giuliano; Rampazzo, Giancarlo; Stenni, Barbara

2016-04-01

The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition in precipitation can be used in hydrology to describe the signature of local meteoric water. The isotopic composition of water vapor is usually obtained indirectly from measurements of δD and δ18O in precipitation, assuming the isotopic equilibrium between rain and water vapor. Only few studies report isotopic data in both phases for the same area, thus providing a complete Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL). The goal of this study is to build a complete LMWL for the lagoon of Venice (northern Italy) with observations of both water vapor and precipitation. The sampling campaign has started in March 2015 and will be carried out until the end of 2016. Water vapor is collected once a week with cold traps at low temperatures (-77°C). Precipitation is collected on event and monthly basis with a custom automatic rain sampler and a rain gauge, respectively. Liquid samples are analyzed with a Picarro L1102-i and results are reported vs VSMOW. The main meteorological parameters are continuously recorded in the same area by the campus automatic weather station. Preliminary data show an LMWL close to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) with lower slope and intercept. An evaporation line is clearly recognizable, considering samples that evaporated between the cloud base and the ground. The deviation from the GMWL parameters, especially intercept, can be attributed to evaporated rain or to the humidity conditions of the water vapor source. Water vapor collected during rainfall shows that rain and vapor are near the isotopic equilibrium, just considering air temperature measured at ground level. Temperature is one of the main factor that controls the isotopic composition of the atmospheric water vapor. Nevertheless, the circulation of air masses is a crucial parameter which has to be considered. Water vapor samples collected in different days but with the same meteorological conditions (air temperature and relative humidity) show differences in terms of δ18O up to 3‰. Isotopic ratios in rain events and water vapor are in fact dominated by a seasonal component but outliers are clearly linked to air parcel origin. The monthly measurements of δD and δ18O in precipitation of August 2015, for instance, are lower than in colder months, considering monthly average temperatures. Single rain events show a small sequence of precipitation, that leads to 40% of total precipitation of August, which lowers δ-values considerably. The sampling on event basis during occasional and discontinuous rain also allows to identify the rainout effect, which leads to lightening water during a rainfall. Statistics based on back trajectories (48 hours) show that the major part of air parcels travels across central Europe and derives from sources located in the north Atlantic, whereas, a smaller fraction of the water vapor can be attributed to Mediterranean sources.

Dynamic processes in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prendergast, E. P.

1999-03-01

This thesis describes the study of the reaction dynamics in heavy-ion collisions of small nuclear systems at intermediate energies. For this, experiments were performed of 24Mg+27A1 at 45 and 95 AMeV. The experiments described in this thesis were performed at the GANIL accelerator facility in Caeri (France) using the Huygens detectors in conjunction with the ‘MUR’. The Huygens detectors consist of the CsI(Tl)-Wall (CIW) covering the backward hemisphere and, located at mid-rapidity, the central trigger detector (CTD), a gas chamber with microstrip read-out backed by 48 plastic scintillators. The forward region is covered by 16 of the plastic scintillators of the CTD and by the MUR, a time-of-flight wall consisting of 96 plastic scintillator sheets. In earlier experiments only fragments with atomic number, Z, greater then two could be identifled in the CTD. Therefore, an investigation was done into the properties of different drift gases. The use of freon (CF4) in the drift chamber, combined with an increase of the gas pressure to 150 mbar, makes it possible to identify all particles with Z ≥ 2. Under these conditions particles with Z = 1 can only be identifled to approximately 25 AMeV. The Isospin Quantum Molecular Dynamics (IQMD) model has been used, to interpret the measured data. This model gives a microscopical description of heavy-ion collisions and simulates collisions on an event by event basis. In IQMD all protons and neutrons are represented as individual Gaussian wave packets. After initialisation the path of each nucleon is calculated for 200 fm/c, after which the simulation is stopped. At this time, nucleons which are close in space are clustered into fragments. The events generated by IQMD can then be processed by a GEANT detector simulation. This calculation takes into account the effects of the detector on the incoming particles. By using the GEANT simulation it is possible to give a direct comparison between the results of IQMD and the experimental data. The impact-parameter selection procedure, based on the charged-particle multiplicity, was studied using IQMD events and the GEANT detector simulation. This showed that indeed an impact-parameter selection can be made with this method. However, the accuracy of this selection for these small systems is not very good. In particular the central-event selection is heavily polluted by mid-central events. Only mid-central events have been studied for 24Mg+27A1 at 45 and 95 AMeV. In order to study the collective flow in heavy-ion collisions, first the event plane has to be reconstructed. Again IQMD events and the GEANT detector simulation were used to investigate the effectiveness of several different event-plane reconstruction methods. It was found that an event plane can be reconstructed. The azimuthal-correlation method gives marginally the best result. With this method to reconstruct the reaction plane, the directed in-plane fiow was studied. The experimental data showed a strongly reduced flow at 95 AMeV compared to 45 AMeV, in accordance with a balancing energy of 114 ± 10 AMeV as derived from literature. Finally, the reaction dynamics were studied using the azimuthal correlations and the polar-angle distributions of intermediate-mass fragments (IMFs) emitted at midrapidity, both of which do not require an event-plane reconstructioh. The azimuthal correlations for the two energies are quite similar, whereas the directed in-plane flow is substantially higher at 45 AMeV than at 95 AMeV. This shows that the azimuthal correlations are insensitive to the magnitude of the directed in-plane flow. At both energies, the azimuthal-correlation functions for the various IMFs show absolute maxima at 180°, which can not be explained by a mid-rapidity source emitting fragments mdependently. However, the distributions are described by IQMD. The maxima are either caused target-projectile correlations (as in IQMD) or by momentum conservation. To describe the momentum-conservation scenario, a second model was introduced, which simulates the prompt multifragmentation of a small source. This model was fitted to the measured azimuthal-correlation functions, resulting in source sizes between 32 and 40 amu, depending on the mass of the emitted IMFs. Subsequently, the polar-angle distributions of the two models were compared to the experimental data. The distributions of the experimental data showed target- and projectile-like maxima, which can not be described by a decaying source, but are described by IQMD. Therefore, it is concluded that the IMF production in these small systems is a dynamic process with no evidence of a mid-rapidity source.

DETECTORS AND EXPERIMENTAL METHODS: Equivalent properties of single event burnout induced by different sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shi-Yu; Cao, Zhou; Da, Dao-An; Xue, Yu-Xiong

2009-05-01

The experimental results of single event burnout induced by heavy ions and 252Cf fission fragments in power MOSFET devices have been investigated. It is concluded that the characteristics of single event burnout induced by 252Cf fission fragments is consistent to that in heavy ions. The power MOSFET in the “turn-off" state is more susceptible to single event burnout than it is in the “turn-on" state. The thresholds of the drain-source voltage for single event burnout induced by 173 MeV bromine ions and 252Cf fission fragments are close to each other, and the burnout cross section is sensitive to variation of the drain-source voltage above the threshold of single event burnout. In addition, the current waveforms of single event burnouts induced by different sources are similar. Different power MOSFET devices may have different probabilities for the occurrence of single event burnout.

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in order to illustrate some crucial aspects of including information on extreme historical floods into at-site flood frequency analyses.

Development of A Tsunami Magnitude Scale Based on DART Buoy Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J.; Polet, J.

2016-12-01

The quantification of tsunami energy has evolved through time, with a number of magnitude and intensity scales employed in the past century. Most of these scales rely on coastal measurements, which may be affected by complexities due to near-shore bathymetric effects and coastal geometries. Moreover, these datasets are generated by tsunami inundation, and thus cannot serve as a means of assessing potential tsunami impact prior to coastal arrival. With the introduction of a network of ocean buoys provided through the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) project, a dataset has become available that can be exploited to further our current understanding of tsunamis and the earthquakes that excite them. The DART network consists of 39 stations that have produced estimates of sea-surface height as a function of time since 2003, and are able to detect deep ocean tsunami waves. Data collected at these buoys for the past decade reveals that at least nine major tsunami events, such as the 2011 Tohoku and 2013 Solomon Islands events, produced substantial wave amplitudes across a large distance range that can be implemented in a DART data based tsunami magnitude scale. We present preliminary results from the development of a tsunami magnitude scale that follows the methods used in the development of the local magnitude scale by Charles Richter. Analogous to the use of seismic ground motion amplitudes in the calculation of local magnitude, maximum ocean height displacements due to the passage of tsunami waves will be related to distance from the source in a least-squares exponential regression analysis. The regression produces attenuation curves based on the DART data, a site correction term, attenuation parameters, and an amplification factor. Initially, single event based regressions are used to constrain the attenuation parameters. Additional iterations use the parameters of these event-based fits as a starting point to obtain a stable solution, and include the calculation of station corrections, in order to obtain a final amplification factor for each event, which is used to calculate its tsunami magnitude.

Sensitivity of drainage morphometry based hydrological response (GIUH) of a river basin to the spatial resolution of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant

2018-02-01

Drainage network pattern and its associated morphometric ratios are some of the important plan form attributes of a drainage basin. Extraction of these attributes for any basin is usually done by spatial analysis of the elevation data of that basin. These planform attributes are further used as input data for studying numerous process-response interactions inside the physical premise of the basin. One of the important uses of the morphometric ratios is its usage in the derivation of hydrologic response of a basin using GIUH concept. Hence, accuracy of the basin hydrological response to any storm event depends upon the accuracy with which, the morphometric ratios can be estimated. This in turn, is affected by the spatial resolution of the source data, i.e. the digital elevation model (DEM). We have estimated the sensitivity of the morphometric ratios and the GIUH derived hydrograph parameters, to the resolution of source data using a 30 meter and a 90 meter DEM. The analysis has been carried out for 50 drainage basins in a mountainous catchment. A simple and comprehensive algorithm has been developed for estimation of the morphometric indices from a stream network. We have calculated all the morphometric parameters and the hydrograph parameters for each of these basins extracted from two different DEMs, with different spatial resolutions. Paired t-test and Sign test were used for the comparison. Our results didn't show any statistically significant difference among any of the parameters calculated from the two source data. Along with the comparative study, a first-hand empirical analysis about the frequency distribution of the morphometric and hydrologic response parameters has also been communicated. Further, a comparison with other hydrological models suggests that plan form morphometry based GIUH model is more consistent with resolution variability in comparison to topographic based hydrological model.

Does Making Something Move Matter? Representations of Goals and Sources in Motion Events with Causal Sources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakusta, Laura; Muentener, Paul; Petrillo, Lauren; Mullanaphy, Noelle; Muniz, Lauren

2017-01-01

Previous studies have shown a robust bias to express the goal path over the source path when describing events ("the bird flew into the pitcher," rather than "… out of the bucket into the pitcher"). Motivated by linguistic theory, this study manipulated the causal structure of events (specifically, making the source cause the…

Measuring $$\

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Jessica Sarah

2011-01-01

The MINOS Experiment consists of two steel-scintillator calorimeters, sampling the long baseline NuMI muon neutrino beam. It was designed to make a precise measurement of the ‘atmospheric’ neutrino mixing parameters, Δm 2 atm. and sin 2 (2 atm.). The Near Detector measures the initial spectrum of the neutrino beam 1km from the production target, and the Far Detector, at a distance of 735 km, measures the impact of oscillations in the neutrino energy spectrum. Work performed to validate the quality of the data collected by the Near Detector is presented as part of this thesis. This thesis primarily details themore » results of a v μ disappearance analysis, and presents a new sophisticated fitting software framework, which employs a maximum likelihood method to extract the best fit oscillation parameters. The software is entirely decoupled from the extrapolation procedure between the detectors, and is capable of fitting multiple event samples (defined by the selections applied) in parallel, and any combination of energy dependent and independent sources of systematic error. Two techniques to improve the sensitivity of the oscillation measurement were also developed. The inclusion of information on the energy resolution of the neutrino events results in a significant improvement in the allowed region for the oscillation parameters. The degree to which sin 2 (2θ )= 1.0 could be disfavoured with the exposure of the current dataset if the true mixing angle was non-maximal, was also investigated, with an improved neutrino energy reconstruction for very low energy events. The best fit oscillation parameters, obtained by the fitting software and incorporating resolution information were: | Δm 2| = 2.32 +0.12 -0.08×10 -3 eV 2 and sin 2 (2θ ) > 0.90(90% C.L.). The analysis provides the current world best measurement of the atmospheric neutrino mass splitting Δm 2. The alternative models of neutrino decay and decoherence are disfavoured by 7.8σ and 9.7σ respectively.« less

Chapter A. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Main Shock Characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul

1996-01-01

The October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (0004:15.2 G.m.t. October 18; lat 37.036? N., long 121.883? W.; 19-km depth) had a local magnitude (ML) of about 6.7, a surface-wave magnitude (MS) of 7.1, a seismic moment of 2.2x1019 N-m to 3.5x1019 N-m, a source duration of 6 to 15 s, and an average stress drop of at least 50 bars. Slip occurred on a dipping fault surface about 35 km long and was largely confined to a depth of about 7 to 20 km. The slip vector had a large vertical component, and slip was distributed in two main regions situated northwest and southeast of the hypocenter. This slip distribution caused about half of the earthquake's energy to be focused toward the urbanized San Francisco Bay region, while the other half was focused toward the southeast. Had the rupture initiated at the southeast end of the aftershock zone, shaking in the bay region would have been both longer and stronger. These source parameters suggest that the earthquake was not a typical shallow San Andreas-type event but a deeper event on a different fault with a recurrence interval of many hundreds of years. Therefore, the potential for a damaging shallow event on the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains may still exist.

Optimizing Vetoes for Gravitational-wave Transient Searches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Essick, R.; Blackburn, Lindy L.; Katsavounidis, E.

2014-01-01

Interferometric gravitational-wave detectors like LIGO, GEO600 and Virgo record a surplus of information above and beyond possible gravitational-wave events. These auxiliary channels capture information about the state of the detector and its surroundings which can be used to infer potential terrestrial noise sources of some gravitational-wave-like events. We present an algorithm addressing the ordering (or equivalently optimizing) of such information from auxiliary systems in gravitational-wave detectors to establish veto conditions in searches for gravitational-wave transients. The procedure was used to identify vetoes for searches for unmodelled transients by the LIGO and Virgo collaborations during their science runs from 2005 through 2007. In this work we present the details of the algorithm; we also use a limited amount of data from LIGO's past runs in order to examine the method, compare it with other methods, and identify its potential to characterize the instruments themselves. We examine the dependence of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves on the various parameters of the veto method and the implementation on real data. We find that the method robustly determines important auxiliary channels, ordering them by the apparent strength of their correlations to the gravitational-wave channel. This list can substantially reduce the background of noise events in the gravitational-wave data. In this way it can identify the source of glitches in the detector as well as assist in establishing confidence in the detection of gravitational-wave transients.

Development of a full ice-cream cone model for halo CME structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Yong-Jae

2015-04-01

The determination of three dimensional parameters (e.g., radial speed, angular width, source location) of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is very important for space weather forecast. To estimate these parameters, several cone models based on a flat cone or a shallow ice-cream cone with spherical front have been suggested. In this study, we investigate which cone model is proper for halo CME morphology using 33 CMEs which are identified as halo CMEs by one spacecraft (SOHO or STEREO-A or B) and as limb CMEs by the other ones. From geometrical parameters of these CMEs such as their front curvature, we find that near full ice-cream cone CMEs (28 events) are dominant over shallow ice-cream cone CMEs (5 events). So we develop a new full ice-cream cone model by assuming that a full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. This model is carried out by the following steps: (1) construct a cone for given height and angular width, (2) project the cone onto the sky plane, (3) select points comprising the outer boundary, (4) minimize the difference between the estimated projection points with the observed ones. We apply this model to several halo CMEs and compare the results with those from other methods such as a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model and a geometrical triangulation method.

New Perspectives on Long Run-out Rock Avalanches: A Dynamic Analysis of 20 Events in the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin, J.; Rosser, N. J.; Dunning, S.; Hardy, R. J.; Karim, K.; Szczucinski, W.; Norman, E. C.; Strzelecki, M.; Drewniak, M.

2014-12-01

Risk assessments of the threat posed by rock avalanches rely upon numerical modelling of potential run-out and spreading, and are contingent upon a thorough understanding of the flow dynamics inferred from deposits left by previous events. Few records exist of multiple rock avalanches with boundary conditions sufficiently consistent to develop a set of more generalised rules for behaviour across events. A unique cluster of 20 large (3 x 106 - 94 x 106 m3) rock avalanche deposits along the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland, offers a unique opportunity to model a large sample of adjacent events sourced from a stretch of coastal mountains of relatively uniform geology and structure. Our simulations of these events were performed using VolcFlow, a geophysical mass flow code developed to simulate volcanic debris avalanches. Rheological calibration of the model was performed using a well-constrained event at Paatuut (AD 2000). The best-fit simulation assumes a constant retarding stress with a collisional stress coefficient (T0 = 250 kPa, ξ = 0.01), and simulates run-out to within ±0.3% of that observed. Despite being widely used to simulate rock avalanche propagation, other models, that assume either a Coulomb frictional or a Voellmy rheology, failed to reproduce the observed event characteristics and deposit distribution at Paatuut. We applied this calibration to 19 other events, simulating rock avalanche motion across 3D terrain of varying levels of complexity. Our findings illustrate the utility and sensitivity of modelling a single rock avalanche satisfactorily as a function of rheology, alongside the validity of applying the same parameters elsewhere, even within similar boundary conditions. VolcFlow can plausibly account for the observed morphology of a series of deposits emplaced by events of different types, although its performance is sensitive to a range of topographic and geometric factors. These exercises show encouraging results in the model's ability to simulate a series of events using a single set of parameters obtained by back-analysis of the Paatuut event alone. The results also hold important implications for our process understanding of rock avalanches in confined fjord settings, where correctly modelling material flux at the point of entry into the water is critical in tsunami generation.

Southern Greenland water vapour isotopic composition at the crossroads of Atlantic and Arctic moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonne, J. L.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Risi, C. M.; Werner, M.; Sodemann, H.; Lacour, J. L.; Fettweis, X.; Cesana, G.; Delmotte, M.; Cattani, O.; Clerbaux, C.; Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

2014-12-01

Since September 2011, a continuous water vapour isotopic composition monitoring instrument has been remotely operated in Ivittuut (61.21°N, 48.17°W), southern Greenland. Meteorological parameters are monitored and precipitation has been sampled and analysed for isotopic composition, suggesting equilibrium between surface vapour and precipitation. The data depict small summer diurnal variations. δ18O and deuterium excess (d-excess) are generally anti-correlated and show important seasonal variations (with respective amplitudes of 10 and 20 ‰), and large synoptic variations associated to low-pressure systems (typically +5‰ on δ18O and -15‰ on d-excess). The moisture sources, estimated based on Lagrangian back-trajectories, are primarily influenced by the western North Atlantic, and north-eastern American continent. Notable are important seasonal and synoptic shifts of the moisture sources, and sporadic influences of the Arctic or the eastern North Atlantic. Moisture sources variations can be related to changes in water vapour isotopic composition, and the isotopic fingerprints can be attributed to the areas of moisture origins. Isotopic enabled AGCMs nudged to meteorology (LMDZiso, ECHAM5-wiso), despite biases, correctly capture the δ18O changes, but underestimate the d-excess changes. They allow to identify a high correlation between the southern Greenland d-excess and the simulated relative humidity and d-excess in the moisture source region south of Greenland. An extreme high temperature event in July 2012 affecting all Greenland, similar to ice sheet melt events during the medieval periods and one event in 1889 documented by Greenland ice core records, has been analysed regarding water vapour isotopic composition, using remote sensing (IASI) and in situ observations from Bermuda to northern Greenland (NEEM station). Our southern Greenland observations allow to track the water vapour evolution during this event along the moisture transport path, depicting the northward propagation of an isotopic signal inherited from the meteorological conditions during evaporation. Overall, our observations provide valuable information for interpreting Greenland ice core records as well as for evaluating water vapour isotopic simulations in atmospheric models.

Propagation Characteristics of CMEs Associated with Magnetic Clouds and Ejecta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, R.-S.; Gopalswamy, N.; Cho, K.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Yashiro, S.

2013-05-01

We have investigated the characteristics of magnetic cloud (MC) and ejecta (EJ) associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on the assumption that all CMEs have a flux rope structure. For this, we used 54 CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts (interplanetary CMEs: ICMEs) that constitute the list of events used by the NASA/LWS Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) on CME flux ropes. We considered the location, angular width, and speed as well as the direction parameter, D. The direction parameter quantifies the degree of asymmetry of the CME shape in coronagraph images, and shows how closely the CME propagation is directed to Earth. For the 54 CDAW events, we found the following properties of the CMEs: i) the average value of D for the 23 MCs (0.62) is larger than that for the 31 EJs (0.49), which indicates that the MC-associated CMEs propagate more directly toward the Earth than the EJ-associated CMEs; ii) comparison between the direction parameter and the source location shows that the majority of the MC-associated CMEs are ejected along the radial direction, while many of the EJ-associated CMEs are ejected non-radially; iii) the mean speed of MC-associated CMEs (946 km s-1) is faster than that of EJ-associated CMEs (771 km s-1). For seven very fast CMEs (≥ 1500 km s-1), all CMEs with large D (≥ 0.4) are associated with MCs and the CMEs with small D are associated with EJs. From the statistical analysis of CME parameters, we found the superiority of the direction parameter. Based on these results, we suggest that the CME trajectory essentially determines the observed ICME structure.

Imaging stress redistribution in a high-stress mining environment using induced microseismicity and seismic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, A. M.; Urbancic, T.; Bosman, K.; Smith-Boughner, L.; Viegas, G. F.

2016-12-01

Underground excavation of ore tends to concentrate stress in the pillars of the mines. As the mining progresses, the stress tends to concentrate in these pillars resulting in potentially critical stress conditions that lead to concerns over personnel safety and has implications with regards to efficient and effective extraction criteria. It therefore becomes critical for operations to manage this stress behaviour as the extraction activities progress. In this study, we examine seismicity recorded with a full three-dimensional array consisting of single- and three-component accelerometers and geophones around the extraction volumes; this data formed the basis for characterization of stress variations. Specifically, we present an integrated study of the seismological properties of a sill pillar during the blasting of a stope to characterize how the stress is evolving in the mine. Our results suggest that the seismicity itself reacts to the stress conditions of the mining and through investigation of the source parameters, reveals how these events are being activated. Through consideration of the both the source parameters and the inter-event times and distances, we arrive at a description of the deformation of the reservoir and are able to assess the role of stress during this process. Further resolution of the stress state in the mine is obtained through inversions of moment tensors on the highest-quality microseismic data, and a descriptive analysis of event clustering by space and time to resolve the dynamics of the stress orientations. To corroborate our inferences based on microseismicity, we use blasts recorded around the extraction volume to understand how stress is manifesting itself through P-wave velocity anomalies. We confirm the dynamics of the stress field that we observe from the microseismicity and show the destressing effect of blasting coupled with stress migration through to other parts of the sill pillar.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gair, Jonathan R.; Tang, Christopher; Volonteri, Marta

One of the sources of gravitational waves for the proposed space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are the inspirals of compact objects into supermassive black holes in the centers of galaxies--extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Using LISA observations, we will be able to measure the parameters of each EMRI system detected to very high precision. However, the statistics of the set of EMRI events observed by LISA will be more important in constraining astrophysical models than extremely precise measurements for individual systems. The black holes to which LISA is most sensitive are in a mass range that ismore » difficult to probe using other techniques, so LISA provides an almost unique window onto these objects. In this paper we explore, using Bayesian techniques, the constraints that LISA EMRI observations can place on the mass function of black holes at low redshift. We describe a general framework for approaching inference of this type--using multiple observations in combination to constrain a parametrized source population. Assuming that the scaling of the EMRI rate with the black-hole mass is known and taking a black-hole distribution given by a simple power law, dn/dlnM=A{sub 0}(M/M{sub *}){sup {alpha}}{sub 0}, we find that LISA could measure the parameters to a precision of {Delta}(lnA{sub 0}){approx}0.08, and {Delta}({alpha}{sub 0}){approx}0.03 for a reference model that predicts {approx}1000 events. Even with as few as 10 events, LISA should constrain the slope to a precision {approx}0.3, which is the current level of observational uncertainty in the low-mass slope of the black-hole mass function. We also consider a model in which A{sub 0} and {alpha}{sub 0} evolve with redshift, but find that EMRI observations alone do not have much power to probe such an evolution.« less

Automatic seismic waveform location using multichannel coherency migration for induced and natural earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowacki, A.; Shi, P.; Angus, D. A.; Rost, S.; Birnie, C. E.; Yuan, S.

2017-12-01

Modern, large seismic datasets place a huge burden on human analysts who traditionally have been required to manually pick distinct phase arrivals in order to locate seismic events. This burden becomes insurmountable when real-time monitoring is needed, and hence automated approaches are necessary. Whilst many methods exist, noisy data often defeat them. We propose here a novel method to migrate seismic energy back to its spatial and temporal source, based on an improved imaging condition with greater tolerance to noise. The multichannel coherency migration (MCM) method sums the correlation coefficients of traces between all available station pairs, using the predicted P- and S-wave windows for any given imaging point in the target volume. Grid searching in time and space allows the point of maximum waveform coherency and event likelihood to be found. The only adjustable parameter in the method is the cross-correlation window length, but this is determined by the dominant frequency of the signal. This is in contrast with most other methods, such as the STA-LTA imaging function, which require several parameters to be adjusted and optimised for each application. Because we use the cross-correlation between stations, incoherent noise is effectively suppressed, and even temporally coherent noise which is not located within the target volume can be minimised also. We apply the MCM to synthetic tests, and real data in geological carbon storage and volcanic settings. In comparison to migrations based on waveform envelope, STA-LTA and kurtosis imaging functions, the MCM more reliably finds the true source and better suppresses noise. Synthetic tests with real noise show that the MCM remains robust up to noise-to-signal (not a typo) ratios (NSR) of about 40. Tests with incorrect velocity models further suggest that the MCM will be a useful event detection method in the future.

Stress release model and proxy measures of earthquake size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varini, Elisa; Rotondi, Renata; Basili, Roberto; Barba, Salvatore

2016-07-01

This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003-2012 decade.

Géodynamique et évolution thermique de la matière organique: exemple du bassin de Qasbat-Tadla, Maroc centralBasin geodynamics and thermal evolution of organic material: example from the Qasbat-Tadla Basin, central Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Er-Raïoui, H.; Bouabdelli, M.; Bélayouni, H.; Chellai, H.

2001-05-01

Seismic data analysis of the Qasbat-Tadla Basin allows the deciphering of the main tectonic and sedimentary events that characterised the Hercynian orogen and its role in the basin's structural development. The global tectono-sedimentary framework involves structural evolution of an orogenic foreland basin and was the source of rising geotherms in an epizonal metamorphic environment. The complementary effects of these parameters has led to different source rock maturity levels, ranging from oil producing to graphite domains. Different maturity levels result from three distinct structural domains within the basin, each of which exhibit characteristic geodynamic features (tectonic contraints, rate of subsidence, etc.).

Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

2011-12-01

Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one in 1629 to the Seram and Timor Troughs. For the Seram Trough source a Mw 8.8 produces run-up heights in the Banda Islands of 15.5 m with an arrival time of 17 minuets. For a Timor Trough earthquake near the Tanimbar Islands a Mw 9.2 is needed to produce a 15 m run-up height with an arrival time of 25 minuets. The main problem with the Timor Trough source is that it predicts run-up heights in Ambon of 10 m, which would likely have been recorded. Therefore, we conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. No large earthquakes are reported along the Seram Trough for over 200 years although high rates of strain are measured across it. This study suggests that the earthquake triggers from this fault zone could be extremely devastating to Eastern Indonesia. We strive to raise the awareness to the local government to not underestimate the natural hazard of this region based on lessons learned from the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic mega-thrust earthquakes.

The measurement of upward going muons using the MACRO detector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaruli, T.

1999-01-01

The upward-going muon flux (Eμ > 1 GeV) has been measured with the underground detector MACRO at LNGS. The total number of measured events is compatible at the 8% c.l. with the expected one. Moreover, the zenith angular distribution of the measured flux does not match the expectation showing a deficit in the vertical direction where the apparatus performance is best known. Assuming an oscillation hypothesis with parameters in the range recently suggested to solve the atmospheric neutrino problem, the agreement increases, but not significantly. The results of an indirect dark matter search for a signal of WIMPs from the core of the Sun and of the Earth are given. Neutrino astronomy with MACRO is giving interesting results regarding possible high energy neutrino emission from pointlike sources and coincidences of neutrino events with γ-ray bursts.

Local Earthquake Tomography in the Eifel Region, Middle Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaensicke, H.

2001-12-01

The aim of the Eifel Plume project is to verify the existence of an assumed mantle plume responsible for the Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism in the Eifel region of midwest Germany. During a large passive and semi-active seismological experiment (November 1997 - June 1998) about 160 mobil broadband and short period stations were operated in addition to about 100 permanent stations in the area of interest. The stations registered teleseismic and local events. Local events are used to obtain a threedimensional tomographic model of seismic velocities in the crust. Since local earthquake tomography requires a large set of crustal travel paths, seismograms of local events recorded from July 1998 to June 2001 by permanent stations were added to the Eifel Plume data set. In addition to travel time corrections for the teleseismic tomography of the upper mantle, the new 3D velocity model should improve the precision for location of local events. From a total of 832 local seismic events, 172 were identified as tectonic earthquakes. The other events were either quarry blasts or shallow mine-induced seismic events. The locations of 60 quarry blasts are known and for 30 of them the firing time was measured during the field experiment. Since the origin time and location of these events are known with high precision, they are used to validate inverted velocity models. Station corrections from simultaneous 1D-inversion of local earthquake traveltimes and hypocenters are in good agreement with travel time residuals calculated from teleseismic rays. A strong azimuthal dependency of travel time residuals resulting from a 1D velocity model was found for quarry blasts with hypocenters in the volcanic field in the center of the Eifel. Simultaneous 3D-inversion calculations show strong heterogeneities in the upper crust and a negative anomaly for p-wave velocities in the lower crust. The latter either could indicate a low velocity zone close to the Moho or subsidence of the Moho. We present preliminary results obtained by simultaneous inversion of earthquake and velocity parameters constrained by known geological parameters and the controlled source information from calibrated quarry blasts.

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Camp, J. B.;

The Study of Bose-Einstein correlation in deep inelastic mu - nucleon and mu - nucleus scattering at 465-GeV/C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Rurngsheng

1994-01-01

The Bose-Einstein correlation between two like-sign charged pions was studied in deep inelastic muon nucleon and nucleus interactions. The goals for this study were to measure nuclear effects on the size and shape of the pion emission source and the dependence of these values on the event kinematical variables. Two parametrization models (Goldhaber and Kopylov-Podgorestskii) have been used for this study. The Goldhaber parametrization gives the radius ofthe pion emission region ofrg = 0.63 ± 0.04 fm and for the chaoticity parameter .A = 0.39 ± 0.03. Using the Kopylov-Podgorestskii parameterization yields rk = 1.8 ± 0.72 ±, .A =more » 0.34 ± 0.05 and for the pion source lifetime of T= 0.75 ± 0.18 fm. A double enhancement which represents two source size distribution was observed with a smaller size of 0.51 ± 0.06 ± 0.04 fm and a bigger second size of 1.53 ± 0.39 ± 0.28 fm. The results of this analysis show the Goldhaber parametrization is preferable to explain the source distribution. The Goldhaber parametrization was used for the further studies. The data are compatible with an oblate shape of the pion emission region with not any nuclear effect on the source size and the shape. A decreasing source size has been observed with increasing Zbj as well as with increasing Q2. No dependence for Bose-Einstein effect on other kinematical variables, v and W 2 , is seen. No nuclear effect for the dependence on event kinematical variables, Zbj, W 2, v, and Q2 has been found. This thesis is based on the data collected in the 1990-91 Fermilab experiment E665 fixed target run period and the reconstruction is completed in 1993. The organization of this thesis is as follow: The first chapter describes a brief introduction of experimental and theoretical approach for studying the Bose-Einstein correlation and the evidence from other experiments. Chapter two describes the experimental apparatus which used to gather the data for this analysis. The procedure used to reconstruct raw data into events with kinematical variables and the simulation of Monte-Carlo events is described in chapter three. Chapter four describes the selection of events and tracks used for the Bose-Einstein correlation analysis and the Monte-Carlo studies for understanding the quality of data. The analysis of Bose-Einstein correlation and the results of the analysis along with the conclusions are described in chapter five.« less

Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

2015-09-01

Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the watershed is remarkably improved up to 50% in comparison to the simulations by the individual models. Results indicate that the developed methodology not only provides reliable tools for rainfall and runoff modeling, but also adequate time for incorporating required mitigation measures in dealing with potentially extreme runoff events and flood hazard. Results of this study can be used in identification of the main factors affecting flood hazard analysis.

Enhanced Spectral Analysis of SEP Reservoir Events by OMNIWeb Multi-Source Browse Services of the Space Physics Data Facility and the Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, John F.; Papitashvili, Natalia E.; Johnson, Rita C.; McGuire, Robert

2015-04-01

The NASA Space Physics Data Facility and Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO) have jointly upgraded the highly used OMNIWeb services for heliospheric solar wind data to also include energetic electron, proton, and heavier ion data in a variety of graphical browse formats. The underlying OMNI and VEPO data now span just over a half century from 1963 to the present. The new services include overlay of differential flux spectra from multiple instruments and spacecraft, scatter plots of fluxes from two user-selected energy channels, distribution function histograms of selected parameters, and spectrograms of flux vs. energy and time. Users can also overlay directional flux spectra from different angular channels. Data from most current and some past (Helios 1&2, Pioneer 10&11) heliospheric spacecraft and instruments are wholly or partially covered by these evolving new services. The traditional OMNI service of correlating magnetic field and plasma data from L1 to 1 AU solar wind sources is also being extended for other spacecraft, e.g. Voyager 1 and 2, to correlations with energetic particle channels. The user capability is, for example, demonstrated to rapidly scan through particle flux spectra from consecutive time periods for so-called “reservoir” events, in which solar energetic particle flux spectra converge in shape and amplitude from multiple spacecraft sources within the inner heliosphere. Such events are important for understanding spectral evolution of global heliospheric events and for intercalibration of flux data from multiple instruments of the same and different spacecraft. These services are accessible at http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/. SPDF and VEPO are separately accessible at http://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/ and http://vepo.gsfc.nasa.gov/.In the future we will propose to extend OMNIWeb particle flux data coverage to the plasma and suprathermal energy range.

Sources of Infrasound events listed in IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittner, Paulina; Polich, Paul; Gore, Jane; Ali, Sherif; Medinskaya, Tatiana; Mialle, Pierrick

2017-04-01

Until 2003 two waveform technologies, i.e. seismic and hydroacoustic were used to detect and locate events included in the International Data Centre (IDC) Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). The first atmospheric event was published in the REB in 2003, however automatic processing required significant improvements to reduce the number of false events. In the beginning of 2010 the infrasound technology was reintroduced to the IDC operations and has contributed to both automatic and reviewed IDC bulletins. The primary contribution of infrasound technology is to detect atmospheric events. These events may also be observed at seismic stations, which will significantly improve event location. Examples sources of REB events, which were detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network were fireballs (e.g. Bangkok fireball, 2015), volcanic eruptions (e.g. Calbuco, Chile 2015) and large surface explosions (e.g. Tjanjin, China 2015). Query blasts (e.g. Zheleznogorsk) and large earthquakes (e.g. Italy 2016) belong to events primarily recorded at seismic stations of the IMS network but often detected at the infrasound stations. In case of earthquakes analysis of infrasound signals may help to estimate the area affected by ground vibration. Infrasound associations to query blast events may help to obtain better source location. The role of IDC analysts is to verify and improve location of events detected by the automatic system and to add events which were missed in the automatic process. Open source materials may help to identify nature of some events. Well recorded examples may be added to the Reference Infrasound Event Database to help in analysis process. This presentation will provide examples of events generated by different sources which were included in the IDC bulletins.

Alternative source models of very low frequency events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomberg, J.; Agnew, D. C.; Schwartz, S. Y.

2016-09-01

We present alternative source models for very low frequency (VLF) events, previously inferred to be radiation from individual slow earthquakes that partly fill the period range between slow slip events lasting thousands of seconds and low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) with durations of tenths of a second. We show that VLF events may emerge from bandpass filtering a sum of clustered, shorter duration, LFE signals, believed to be the components of tectonic tremor. Most published studies show VLF events occurring concurrently with tremor bursts and LFE signals. Our analysis of continuous data from Costa Rica detected VLF events only when tremor was also occurring, which was only 7% of the total time examined. Using analytic and synthetic models, we show that a cluster of LFE signals produces the distinguishing characteristics of VLF events, which may be determined by the cluster envelope. The envelope may be diagnostic of a single, dynamic, slowly slipping event that propagates coherently over kilometers or represents a narrowly band-passed version of nearly simultaneous arrivals of radiation from slip on multiple higher stress drop and/or faster propagating slip patches with dimensions of tens of meters (i.e., LFE sources). Temporally clustered LFE sources may be triggered by single or multiple distinct aseismic slip events or represent the nearly simultaneous chance occurrence of background LFEs. Given the nonuniqueness in possible source durations, we suggest it is premature to draw conclusions about VLF event sources or how they scale.

Alternative source models of very low frequency events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan S.; Agnew, D.C.; Schwartz, S.Y.

2016-01-01

We present alternative source models for very low frequency (VLF) events, previously inferred to be radiation from individual slow earthquakes that partly fill the period range between slow slip events lasting thousands of seconds and low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) with durations of tenths of a second. We show that VLF events may emerge from bandpass filtering a sum of clustered, shorter duration, LFE signals, believed to be the components of tectonic tremor. Most published studies show VLF events occurring concurrently with tremor bursts and LFE signals. Our analysis of continuous data from Costa Rica detected VLF events only when tremor was also occurring, which was only 7% of the total time examined. Using analytic and synthetic models, we show that a cluster of LFE signals produces the distinguishing characteristics of VLF events, which may be determined by the cluster envelope. The envelope may be diagnostic of a single, dynamic, slowly slipping event that propagates coherently over kilometers or represents a narrowly band-passed version of nearly simultaneous arrivals of radiation from slip on multiple higher stress drop and/or faster propagating slip patches with dimensions of tens of meters (i.e., LFE sources). Temporally clustered LFE sources may be triggered by single or multiple distinct aseismic slip events or represent the nearly simultaneous chance occurrence of background LFEs. Given the nonuniqueness in possible source durations, we suggest it is premature to draw conclusions about VLF event sources or how they scale.

A framework for fast probabilistic centroid-moment-tensor determination—inversion of regional static displacement measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käufl, Paul; Valentine, Andrew P.; O'Toole, Thomas B.; Trampert, Jeannot

2014-03-01

The determination of earthquake source parameters is an important task in seismology. For many applications, it is also valuable to understand the uncertainties associated with these determinations, and this is particularly true in the context of earthquake early warning (EEW) and hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop a framework for probabilistic moment tensor point source inversions in near real time. Our methodology allows us to find an approximation to p(m|d), the conditional probability of source models (m) given observations (d). This is obtained by smoothly interpolating a set of random prior samples, using Mixture Density Networks (MDNs)-a class of neural networks which output the parameters of a Gaussian mixture model. By combining multiple networks as `committees', we are able to obtain a significant improvement in performance over that of a single MDN. Once a committee has been constructed, new observations can be inverted within milliseconds on a standard desktop computer. The method is therefore well suited for use in situations such as EEW, where inversions must be performed routinely and rapidly for a fixed station geometry. To demonstrate the method, we invert regional static GPS displacement data for the 2010 MW 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake in Baja California to obtain estimates of magnitude, centroid location and depth and focal mechanism. We investigate the extent to which we can constrain moment tensor point sources with static displacement observations under realistic conditions. Our inversion results agree well with published point source solutions for this event, once the uncertainty bounds of each are taken into account.

A generalization of the double-corner-frequency source spectral model and its use in the SCEC BBP validation exercise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boore, David M.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Abrahamson, Norman A.

2014-01-01

The stochastic method of simulating ground motions requires the specification of the shape and scaling with magnitude of the source spectrum. The spectral models commonly used are either single-corner-frequency or double-corner-frequency models, but the latter have no flexibility to vary the high-frequency spectral levels for a specified seismic moment. Two generalized double-corner-frequency ω2 source spectral models are introduced, one in which two spectra are multiplied together, and another where they are added. Both models have a low-frequency dependence controlled by the seismic moment, and a high-frequency spectral level controlled by the seismic moment and a stress parameter. A wide range of spectral shapes can be obtained from these generalized spectral models, which makes them suitable for inversions of data to obtain spectral models that can be used in ground-motion simulations in situations where adequate data are not available for purely empirical determinations of ground motions, as in stable continental regions. As an example of the use of the generalized source spectral models, data from up to 40 stations from seven events, plus response spectra at two distances and two magnitudes from recent ground-motion prediction equations, were inverted to obtain the parameters controlling the spectral shapes, as well as a finite-fault factor that is used in point-source, stochastic-method simulations of ground motion. The fits to the data are comparable to or even better than those from finite-fault simulations, even for sites close to large earthquakes.

Computer simulation of earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1976-01-01

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

Ignition characteristics of the iron-based alloy UNS S66286 in pressurized oxygen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bransford, James W.; Billard, Phillip A.; Hurley, James A.; Mcdermott, Kathleen M.; Vazquez, Isaura

1988-01-01

The development of ignition and combustion in pressurized oxygen atmospheres was studied for the iron based alloy UNS S66286. Ignition of the alloy was achieved by heating the top surface of a cylindrical specimen with a continuous-wave CO2 laser. Two heating procedures were used. In the first, laser power was adjusted to maintain an approximately linear increase in surface temperature. In the second, laser power was periodically increased until autoheating (self-heating) was established. It was found that the alloy would autoheat to destruction from temperatures below the solidus temperature. In addition endothermic events occurred as the alloy was heated, many at reproducible temperatures. Many endothermic events occurred prior to abrupt increases in surface temperature and appeared to accelerate the rate of increase in specimen temperature to rates greater than what would be expected from increased temperature alone. It is suggested that the source of these endotherms may increase the oxidation rate of the alloy. Ignition parameters are defined and the temperatures at which these parameters occur are given for the oxygen pressure range of 1.72 to 13.8 MPa (25 to 2000 psia).

On the Relationship Between Transfer Function-derived Response Times and Hydrograph Analysis Timing Parameters: Are there Similarities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bansah, S.; Ali, G.; Haque, M. A.; Tang, V.

2017-12-01

The proportion of precipitation that becomes streamflow is a function of internal catchment characteristics - which include geology, landscape characteristics and vegetation - and influence overall storage dynamics. The timing and quantity of water discharged by a catchment are indeed embedded in event hydrographs. Event hydrograph timing parameters, such as the response lag and time of concentration, are important descriptors of how long it takes the catchment to respond to input precipitation and how long it takes the latter to filter through the catchment. However, the extent to which hydrograph timing parameters relate to average response times derived from fitting transfer functions to annual hydrographs is unknown. In this study, we used a gamma transfer function to determine catchment average response times as well as event-specific hydrograph parameters across a network of eight nested watersheds ranging from 0.19 km2 to 74.6 km2 prairie catchments located in south central Manitoba (Canada). Various statistical analyses were then performed to correlate average response times - estimated using the parameters of the fitted gamma transfer function - to event-specific hydrograph parameters. Preliminary results show significant interannual variations in response times and hydrograph timing parameters: the former were in the order of a few hours to days, while the latter ranged from a few days to weeks. Some statistically significant relationships were detected between response times and event-specific hydrograph parameters. Future analyses will involve the comparison of statistical distributions of event-specific hydrograph parameters with that of runoff response times and baseflow transit times in order to quantity catchment storage dynamics across a range of temporal scales.

A comparative study of the grain-size distribution of surface dust and stormwater runoff quality on typical urban roads and roofs in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Shen, Zhenyao; Liu, Jin; Aini, Guzhanuer; Gong, Yongwei

2016-02-01

The deposition of pollutants on impervious surfaces is a serious problem associated with rapid urbanization, which results in non-point-source pollution. Characterizing the build-up and wash-off processes of pollutants in urban catchments is essential for urban planners. In this paper, the spatial variation and particle-size distributions of five heavy metals and two nutrients in surface dust were analyzed, and the runoff water first-flush effect (FF30) and event-mean concentrations (EMCs) of 10 common constituents were characterized. The relationships between runoff variables and stormwater characteristics were examined from three typical urban impervious surfaces in Beijing, China. Dust on road surfaces with smaller grain sizes had higher pollutant concentrations, whereas concentrations of Mn, Zn, Fe, and TP in roof surface dust increased with grain size. Particles with grain sizes of 38-74 and 125-300 μm contributed most to the total pollutant load in roads, while particles with the smallest grain sizes (<38 μm) contributed most on roofs (23.46-41.71 %). Event-mean concentrations (EMCs) and FF30 values for most runoff pollutants tended to be higher on roofs than on roads. The maximum intensity (I max) and the antecedent dry days (ADD) were critical parameters for EMCs in roads, while ADD was the only dominant parameter for EMCs on our studied roof. The rainfall intensity (RI) and maximum intensity (I max) were found to be the parameters with the strongest correlation to the first-flush effect on both roads and roofs. Significant correlations of total suspended solids (TSS) concentration in runoff with grain-size fractions of surface dust indicated that coarser particles (74-300 μm) are most likely to contribute to the solid-phase pollutants, and finer particles (<38 μm) are likely the main source of dissolved pollutants.

Web Based Seismological Monitoring (wbsm)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giudicepietro, F.; Meglio, V.; Romano, S. P.; de Cesare, W.; Ventre, G.; Martini, M.

Over the last few decades the seismological monitoring systems have dramatically improved tanks to the technological advancements and to the scientific progresses of the seismological studies. The most modern processing systems use the network tech- nologies to realize high quality performances in data transmission and remote controls. Their architecture is designed to favor the real-time signals analysis. This is, usually, realized by adopting a modular structure that allow to easy integrate any new cal- culation algorithm, without affecting the other system functionalities. A further step in the seismic processing systems evolution is the large use of the web based appli- cations. The web technologies can be an useful support for the monitoring activities allowing to automatically publishing the results of signals processing and favoring the remote access to data, software systems and instrumentation. An application of the web technologies to the seismological monitoring has been developed at the "Os- servatorio Vesuviano" monitoring center (INGV) in collaboration with the "Diparti- mento di Informatica e Sistemistica" of the Naples University. A system named Web Based Seismological Monitoring (WBSM) has been developed. Its main objective is to automatically publish the seismic events processing results and to allow displaying, analyzing and downloading seismic data via Internet. WBSM uses the XML tech- nology for hypocentral and picking parameters representation and creates a seismic events data base containing parametric data and wave-forms. In order to give tools for the evaluation of the quality and reliability of the published locations, WBSM also supplies all the quality parameters calculated by the locating program and allow to interactively display the wave-forms and the related parameters. WBSM is a modular system in which the interface function to the data sources is performed by two spe- cific modules so that to make it working in conjunction with a generic data source it is sufficient to modify or substitute the interface modules. WBSM is running at the "Osservatorio Vesuviano" Monitoring Center since the beginning of 2001 and can be visited at http://ov.ingv.it.

Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra and swarms in the Salton Trough, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2011-09-01

We study earthquakes within California's Salton Trough from 1981 to 2009 from a precisely relocated catalog. We process the seismic waveforms to isolate source spectra, station spectra and travel-time dependent spectra. The results suggest an average P wave Q of 340, agreeing with previous results indicating relatively high attenuation in the Salton Trough. Stress drops estimated from the source spectra using an empirical Green's function (EGF) method reveal large scatter among individual events but a low median stress drop of 0.56 MPa for the region. The distribution of stress drop after applying a spatial-median filter indicates lower stress drops near geothermal sites. We explore the relationships between seismicity, stress drops and geothermal injection activities. Seismicity within the Salton Trough shows strong spatial clustering, with 20 distinct earthquake swarms with at least 50 events. They can be separated into early-Mmax and late-Mmax groups based on the normalized occurrence time of their largest event. These swarms generally have a low skew value of moment release history, ranging from -9 to 3.0. The major temporal difference between the two groups is the excess of seismicity and an inverse power law increase of seismicity before the largest event for the late-Mmax group. All swarms exhibit spatial migration of seismicity at a statistical significance greater than 85%. A weighted L1-norm inversion of linear migration parameters yields migration velocities from 0.008 to 0.8 km/hour. To explore the influence of fluid injection in geothermal sites, we also model the migration behavior with the diffusion equation, and obtain a hydraulic diffusion coefficient of approximately 0.25 m2/s for the Salton Sea geothermal site, which is within the range of expected values for a typical geothermal reservoir. The swarms with migration velocities over 0.1 km/hour cannot be explained by the diffusion curve, rather, their velocity is consistent with the propagation velocity of creep and slow slip events. These variations in migration behavior allow us to distinguish among different driving processes.

Considerations in Phase Estimation and Event Location Using Small-aperture Regional Seismic Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, Steven J.; Kværna, Tormod; Ringdal, Frode

2010-05-01

The global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions at decreasing magnitudes necessitates the fully automatic detection, location and classification of an ever increasing number of seismic events. Many seismic stations of the International Monitoring System are small-aperture arrays designed to optimize the detection and measurement of regional phases. Collaboration with operators of mines within regional distances of the ARCES array, together with waveform correlation techniques, has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess the ability of a small-aperture array to provide robust and accurate direction and slowness estimates for phase arrivals resulting from well-constrained events at sites of repeating seismicity. A significant reason for the inaccuracy of current fully-automatic event location estimates is the use of f- k slowness estimates measured in variable frequency bands. The variability of slowness and azimuth measurements for a given phase from a given source region is reduced by the application of almost any constant frequency band. However, the frequency band resulting in the most stable estimates varies greatly from site to site. Situations are observed in which regional P- arrivals from two sites, far closer than the theoretical resolution of the array, result in highly distinct populations in slowness space. This means that the f- k estimates, even at relatively low frequencies, can be sensitive to source and path-specific characteristics of the wavefield and should be treated with caution when inferring a geographical backazimuth under the assumption of a planar wavefront arriving along the great-circle path. Moreover, different frequency bands are associated with different biases meaning that slowness and azimuth station corrections (commonly denoted SASCs) cannot be calibrated, and should not be used, without reference to the frequency band employed. We demonstrate an example where fully-automatic locations based on a source-region specific fixed-parameter template are more stable than the corresponding analyst reviewed estimates. The reason is that the analyst selects a frequency band and analysis window which appears optimal for each event. In this case, the frequency band which produces the most consistent direction estimates has neither the best SNR or the greatest beam-gain, and is therefore unlikely to be chosen by an analyst without calibration data.

Variations of seismic parameters during different activity levels of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, T.; Neuberg, J.

2003-04-01

The low-frequency seismic events on Montserrat are linked to conduit resonance and the pressurisation of the volcanic system. Analysis of these events tell us more about the behaviour of the volcanic system and provide a monitoring and interpretation tool. We have written an Automated Event Classification Algorithm Program (AECAP), which finds and classifies seismic events and calculates seismic parameters such as energy, intermittency, peak frequency and event duration. Comparison of low-frequency energy with the tilt cycles in 1997 allows us to link pressurisation of the volcano with seismic behaviour. An empirical relationship provides us with an estimate of pressurisation through released seismic energy. During 1997, the activity of the volcano varied considerably. We compare seismic parameters from quiet periods to those from active periods and investigate how the relationships between these parameters change. These changes are then used to constrain models of magmatic processes during different stages of volcanic activity.

Discrete Event Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Key Leader Engagements

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

to offer. GreenPlayer agents require four parameters, pC, pKLK, pTK, and pRK , which give probabilities for being corrupt, having key leader...HandleMessageRequest component. The same parameter constraints apply to these four parameters. The parameter pRK is the same parameter from the CreatePlayers component...whether the local Green player has resource critical knowledge by using the parameter pRK . It schedules an EndResourceKnowledgeRequest event, passing

A Sensitivity Analysis of Tsunami Inversions on the Number of Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Chao; Liu, Philip L.-F.; Meng, Lingsen

2018-05-01

Current finite-fault inversions of tsunami recordings generally adopt as many tsunami stations as possible to better constrain earthquake source parameters. In this study, inversions are evaluated by the waveform residual that measures the difference between model predictions and recordings, and the dependence of the quality of inversions on the number tsunami stations is derived. Results for the 2011 Tohoku event show that, if the tsunami stations are optimally located, the waveform residual decreases significantly with the number of stations when the number is 1 ˜ 4 and remains almost constant when the number is larger than 4, indicating that 2 ˜ 4 stations are able to recover the main characteristics of the earthquake source. The optimal location of tsunami stations is explained in the text. Similar analysis is applied to the Manila Trench in the South China Sea using artificially generated earthquakes and virtual tsunami stations. Results confirm that 2 ˜ 4 stations are necessary and sufficient to constrain the earthquake source parameters, and the optimal sites of stations are recommended in the text. The conclusion is useful for the design of new tsunami warning systems. Current strategies of tsunameter network design mainly focus on the early detection of tsunami waves from potential sources to coastal regions. We therefore recommend that, in addition to the current strategies, the waveform residual could also be taken into consideration so as to minimize the error of tsunami wave prediction for warning purposes.

Optical gravitational lensing experiment: OGLE-1999-BUL-19 - the first multipeak parallax event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Martin C.; Mao, Shude; Woźniak, P.; Udalski, A.; Szymański, M.; Kubiak, M.; Pietrzyński, G.; Soszyński, I.; Żebruń, K.

2002-10-01

We describe a highly unusual microlensing event, OGLE-1999-BUL-19. Unlike most standard microlensing events, this event exhibits multiple peaks in its light curve. The Einstein radius crossing time for this event is approximately 1 yr, which is unusually long. We show that the additional peaks in the light curve can be caused by the very small value for the relative transverse velocity of the lens projected on to the observer plane (). Since this value is significantly less than the speed of the orbit of the Earth around the Sun (v⊕~ 30km s-1), the motion of the Earth induces these multiple peaks in the light curve. This value for is the lowest velocity so far published and we believe that this is the first multiple-peak parallax event ever observed. We also found that the event can be somewhat better fitted by a rotating binary-source model, although this is to be expected since every parallax microlensing event can be exactly reproduced by a suitable binary-source model. A face-on rotating binary-lens model was also identified, but this provides a significantly worse fit. We conclude that the most likely cause for this multipeak behaviour is parallax microlensing rather than microlensing by a binary source. However, this event may be exhibiting a slight binary-source signature in addition to these parallax-induced multiple peaks. With spectroscopic observations it is possible to test this `parallax plus binary-source' hypothesis and (in the instance that the hypothesis turns out to be correct) to simultaneously fit both models and obtain a measurement of the lens mass. Furthermore, spectroscopic observations could also supply information regarding the lens properties, possibly providing another avenue for determining the lens mass. We also investigated the nature of the blending for this event, and found that the majority of the I-band blending is contributed by a source roughly aligned with the lensed source. This implies that most of the I-band blending is caused by light from the lens or a binary companion to the source. However, in the V band, there appears to be a second blended source 0.35 arcsec away from the lensed source. Hubble Space Telescope observations will be very useful for understanding the nature of the blends. We also suggest that a radial velocity survey of all parallax events will be very useful for further constraining the lensing kinematics and understanding the origins of these events and the excess of long events toward the bulge.

Source time functions of large Mexican subduction earthquakes, morphology of the Benioff Zone, age of the plate, and their tectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S. K.; Mortera, F.

1991-12-01

We study source parameters of large, shallow Mexican subduction zone earthquakes (95°W to 106°W) which occurred between 1928 and 1986 by modeling the P waves recorded on Galitzin-Wilip seismograph in DeBilt (DBN), Holland. For post-1962 events the source parameters retrieved from DBN seismograms alone agree well with those obtained from long-period World-Wide Standardized Seismograph Network records, giving us confidence in our results for pre-1962 events. All earthquakes are shallow (H˜10 to 20 km). With few exceptions the sources in Oaxaca (95°W to 99°W) are very simple. To the northwest of 99°W they are simple as well as complex. The ratio of surface wave to body wave seismic moment (Mos/MoP), which is a measure of long- to short-period radiation, is smaller in Oaxaca (˜ 1.5±0.5) than in the regions northwest of 99°W (˜3.1±1.3). These results suggest a change in the plate interface characteristics near 99°W. The sharp change in the rupture mode and the intersection of the O'Gorman Fracture Zone (OFZ) with the trench occur near 99°W. Two strike-slip events offshore, close to OFZ, suggest a segmentation of the subducting plate near 99°W. The age of the plate near the trench in Oaxaca is not well known; it is possible that it does not increase continuously from northwest to southeast in the region but jumps across 99°W. If so, then the older age of the subducted plate southeast of 99°W may be the cause of the distinct rupture mode of the Oaxaca earthquakes. The length of the Benioff zone, which is greatest below Oaxaca ( ≈ 400 km) and decreases toward the northwest, can be explained by the correlation between the length of the subducted slab and the product of the lithosphere age and convergence rate. The relative complexity of sources, the weaker background seismicity, and the lesser number of aftershocks northwest of Oaxaca may be explained by a stronger interface coupling resulting from subduction of younger oceanic slabs (˜5 to 13 m.y. old) in this region. This, however, explains neither larger Mos/MoP values northwest of Oaxaca nor the low stress drop estimates obtained from the analysis of near-field strong-motion data for the Michoacan earthquake of 1985, both of which indicate weaker coupling of the interface. Thus the issue of whether subduction of very young plates (≤ 10 m.y. old) results in strong or weak coupling remains unsolved from the presently available Mexican data.

Automated rapid finite fault inversion for megathrust earthquakes: Application to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) great earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, Roberto; Cummins, Phil; Dettmer, Jan

2016-04-01

Rapid estimation of the spatial and temporal rupture characteristics of large megathrust earthquakes by finite fault inversion is important for disaster mitigation. For example, estimates of the spatio-temporal evolution of rupture can be used to evaluate population exposure to tsunami waves and ground shaking soon after the event by providing more accurate predictions than possible with point source approximations. In addition, rapid inversion results can reveal seismic source complexity to guide additional, more detailed subsequent studies. This work develops a method to rapidly estimate the slip distribution of megathrust events while reducing subjective parameter choices by automation. The method is simple yet robust and we show that it provides excellent preliminary rupture models as soon as 30 minutes for three great earthquakes in the South-American subduction zone. This may slightly change for other regions depending on seismic station coverage but method can be applied to any subduction region. The inversion is based on W-phase data since it is rapidly and widely available and of low amplitude which avoids clipping at close stations for large events. In addition, prior knowledge of the slab geometry (e.g. SLAB 1.0) is applied and rapid W-phase point source information (time delay and centroid location) is used to constrain the fault geometry and extent. Since the linearization by multiple time window (MTW) parametrization requires regularization, objective smoothing is achieved by the discrepancy principle in two fully automated steps. First, the residuals are estimated assuming unknown noise levels, and second, seeking a subsequent solution which fits the data to noise level. The MTW scheme is applied with positivity constraints and a solution is obtained by an efficient non-negative least squares solver. Systematic application of the algorithm to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) events illustrates that rapid finite fault inversion with teleseismic data is feasible and provides meaningful results. The results for the three events show excellent data fits and are consistent with other solutions showing most of the slip occurring close to the trench for the Maule an Illapel events and some deeper slip for the Iquique event. Importantly, the Illapel source model predicts tsunami waveforms of close agreement with observed waveforms. Finally, we develop a new Bayesian approach to approximate uncertainties as part of the rapid inversion scheme with positivity constraints. Uncertainties are estimated by approximating the posterior distribution as a multivariate log-normal distribution. While solving for the posterior adds some additional computational cost, we illustrate that uncertainty estimation is important for meaningful interpretation of finite fault models.

Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

2011-12-01

The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude, respectively, as a function of the length of the P-wave window. The entire rupture process of the Tohoku earthquake lasted more than 120 seconds, as shown by the source time functions obtained by several authors. When a 3 second window is used to measure Pd and τc the result is an obvious underestimation of the event size and final PGV. However, as the time window increases up to 27-30 seconds, the measured values of Pd and τc become comparable with those expected for a magnitude M≥8.5 earthquake, according to the τc vs. M and the PGV vs. Pd relationships obtained in a previous work. Since we did not observe any saturation effect for the predominant period and peak displacement measured within a P-wave, 30-seconds window, we infer that, at least from a theoretical point of view, the estimation of earthquake damage potential through the early warning parameters is still feasible for large events, provided that a longer time window is used for parameter measurement. The off-line analysis of the Tohoku event records shows that reliable estimations of the damage potential could have been obtained 40-50 seconds after the origin time, by updating the measurements of the early warning parameters in progressively enlarged P-wave time windows from 3 to 30 seconds.

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit, despite different methods like event trees have been used for different applications. I will define a quite general PTHA framework, based on the mixed use of logic and event trees. I will first discuss a particular class of epistemic uncertainties, i.e. those related to the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates. A systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources will be presented. Then, a particular branch of the logic tree is chosen in order to discuss just the aleatory variability of earthquake parameters, represented with an event tree. Even so, PTHA based on numerical scenarios is a too demanding computational task, particularly when probabilistic inundation maps are needed. For trying to reduce the computational burden without under-representing the source variability, the event tree is first constructed by taking care of densely (over-)sampling the earthquake parameter space, and then the earthquakes are filtered basing on their associated tsunami impact offshore, before calculating inundation maps. I'll describe this approach by means of a case study in the Mediterranean Sea, namely the PTHA for some locations of Eastern Sicily coasts and Southern Crete coast due to potential subduction earthquakes occurring on the Hellenic Arc.

Design of Experiments for the Thermal Characterization of Metallic Foam

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crittenden, Paul E.; Cole, Kevin D.

2003-01-01

Metallic foams are being investigated for possible use in the thermal protection systems of reusable launch vehicles. As a result, the performance of these materials needs to be characterized over a wide range of temperatures and pressures. In this paper a radiation/conduction model is presented for heat transfer in metallic foams. Candidates for the optimal transient experiment to determine the intrinsic properties of the model are found by two methods. First, an optimality criterion is used to find an experiment to find all of the parameters using one heating event. Second, a pair of heating events is used to determine the parameters in which one heating event is optimal for finding the parameters related to conduction, while the other heating event is optimal for finding the parameters associated with radiation. Simulated data containing random noise was analyzed to determine the parameters using both methods. In all cases the parameter estimates could be improved by analyzing a larger data record than suggested by the optimality criterion.

Rejection of randomly coinciding events in ZnMoO scintillating bolometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernyak, D. M.; Danevich, F. A.; Giuliani, A.; Mancuso, M.; Nones, C.; Olivieri, E.; Tenconi, M.; Tretyak, V. I.

2014-06-01

Random coincidence of events (particularly from two neutrino double beta decay) could be one of the main sources of background in the search for neutrinoless double beta decay with cryogenic bolometers due to their poor time resolution. Pulse-shape discrimination by using front edge analysis, mean-time and methods were applied to discriminate randomly coinciding events in ZnMoO cryogenic scintillating bolometers. These events can be effectively rejected at the level of 99 % by the analysis of the heat signals with rise-time of about 14 ms and signal-to-noise ratio of 900, and at the level of 92 % by the analysis of the light signals with rise-time of about 3 ms and signal-to-noise ratio of 30, under the requirement to detect 95 % of single events. These rejection efficiencies are compatible with extremely low background levels in the region of interest of neutrinoless double beta decay of Mo for enriched ZnMoO detectors, of the order of counts/(y keV kg). Pulse-shape parameters have been chosen on the basis of the performance of a real massive ZnMoO scintillating bolometer. Importance of the signal-to-noise ratio, correct finding of the signal start and choice of an appropriate sampling frequency are discussed.

Seismic hazard along a crude oil pipeline in the event of an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, H.H.M.; Chen, C.H.S.

1990-04-16

An assessment of the seismic hazard that exists along the major crude oil pipeline running through the New Madrid seismic zone from southeastern Louisiana to Patoka, Illinois is examined in the report. An 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake with moment magnitude 8.2 is assumed to occur at three locations where large historical earthquakes have occurred. Six pipeline crossings of the major rivers in West Tennessee are chosen as the sites for hazard evaluation because of the liquefaction potential at these sites. A seismologically-based model is used to predict the bedrock accelerations. Uncertainties in three model parameters, i.e., stress parameter, cutoffmore » frequency, and strong-motion duration are included in the analysis. Each parameter is represented by three typical values. From the combination of these typical values, a total of 27 earthquake time histories can be generated for each selected site due to an 1811-1812 type New Madrid earthquake occurring at a postulated seismic source.« less

Thermal-field propagation in an exocontact zone of a magmatic body and its impact on radiogenic isotope concentrations in minerals.

PubMed

Brandt, I S; Rasskazov, S V; Brandt, S B; Ivanov, A V

2002-03-01

In application of radioactive isotope systems (K-Ar, Rb-Sr etc.) during the last decades, experience was gained not only on their geochronometrical uses, but also on estimations of some important parameters of geological processes, especially temperatures and durations of superimposed thermal events. In this paper, the formation of an exocontact thermal field of a magmatic intrusion is considered as a spreading of a thermal source delta-function. Appropriate solutions of the heat-transfer equation are deduced and correlated with diffusion parameters of the radiogenic argon, coupling radioactive, thermal and kinetic parameters in an exocontant zone of a magmatic body. These solutions were used for quantitative reinterpretations of data taken from Hart's classical paper [The petrology and isotopic mineral age relations of a contact zone in the Front Range, Colorado. J. Geol., 1964, v. 72, pp. 493-525]. Theoretic and measured radiogenic argon and strontium concentrations within exocontact aureoles are found to be in good concordance.

Exploring the Dynamics of the August 2010 Mount Meager Rock Slide-Debris Flow Jointly with Seismic Source Inversion and Numerical Landslide Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, K.; Moretti, L.; Mangeney, A.; Stutzmann, E.; Capdeville, Y.

2014-12-01

The time series of forces exerted on the earth by a large and rapid landslide derived remotely from the inversion of seismic records can be used to tie post-slide evidence to what actually occurred during the event and can be used to tune numerical models and test theoretical methods. This strategy is applied to the 48.5 Mm3 August 2010 Mount Meager rockslide-debris flow in British Columbia, Canada. By inverting data from just five broadband seismic stations less than 300 km from the source, we reconstruct the time series of forces that the landslide exerted on the Earth as it occurred. The result illuminates a complex retrogressive initiation sequence and features attributable to flow over a complicated path including several curves and runup against a valley wall. The seismically derived force history also allows for the estimation of the horizontal acceleration (0.39 m/s^2) and average apparent coefficient of basal friction (0.38) of the rockslide, and the speed of the center of mass of the debris flow (peak of 92 m/s). To extend beyond these simple calculations and to test the interpretation, we also use the seismically derived force history to guide numerical modeling of the event - seeking to simulate the landslide in a way that best fits both the seismic and field constraints. This allows for a finer reconstruction of the volume, timing, and sequence of events, estimates of friction, and spatiotemporal variations in speed and flow thickness. The modeling allowed us to analyze the sensitivity of the force to the different parameters involved in the landslide modeling to better understand what can and cannot be constrained from seismic source inversions of landslide signals.

Trail Creek I: Assessing the Water Quality of Streams using Fecal Indicator Bacteria and Microbial Source Tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saintil, T.; Radcliffe, D. E.; Rasmussen, T. C.; Kannan, A.

2017-12-01

Fecal coliforms are indicators for disease-causing pathogens. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US. EPA) recommends the use of E. coli and Enterococci because they are highly correlated with pathogenic organisms in recreational waters. This standard method helps to determine the overall water quality and the potential health risks. Studies have shown that it is difficult to estimate the exact sources of fecal contamination because both human and certain animal species contain E. coli and Enterococci in their waste. Certain strains of E. coli and Enterococci are also able to survive outside of their hosts, which should not be the case for an appropriate fecal indicator. As a result, microbial source tracking (MST) studies use gene specific markers to identify the possible contributors to water pollution whether human or animal. Trail Creek is a second-order stream located in Athens-Clarke County, GA. The 33-km2 watershed is approximately 64% forests, 18% pastures and 16% residential communities. Trail Creek is on the TMDL list and an extended study on the relationships between the different factors causing elevated fecal bacteria is needed. Synoptic sampling events were conducted during baseflow conditions at six locations. Storm sampling events (> 8 mm) were captured using automated samplers at two locations. These samplers were equipped with pressure transducers which record stage at 30-minute intervals. The samples were analyzed for fecal coliform, E. Coli and Enterococci. Water quality parameters including temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity were also recorded. Relationships between the parameters and fecal indicator bacteria show inconsistent patterns and high variability. Using quantitative PCR and MST techniques, the human specific marker (HF183) and ruminant marker (Rum2Bac) were used to identify the fecal sources in both baseflow and storm samples. The presence and abundance of the different markers at each site will be presented. The findings will be useful for adopting best management practices and implementing green infrastructure for the reduction of fecal pollution.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada: Considering an Active Leech River Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukovica, J.; Molnar, S.; Ghofrani, H.

2017-12-01

The Leech River fault is situated on Vancouver Island near the city of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The 60km transpressional reverse fault zone runs east to west along the southern tip of Vancouver Island, dividing the lithologic units of Jurassic-Cretaceous Leech River Complex schists to the north and Eocene Metchosin Formation basalts to the south. This fault system poses a considerable hazard due to its proximity to Victoria and 3 major hydroelectric dams. The Canadian seismic hazard model for the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) considered the fault system to be inactive. However, recent paleoseismic evidence suggests there to be at least 2 surface-rupturing events to have exceeded a moment magnitude (M) of 6.5 within the last 15,000 years (Morell et al. 2017). We perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for the city of Victoria with consideration of the Leech River fault as an active source. A PSHA for Victoria which replicates the 2015 NBCC estimates is accomplished to calibrate our PSHA procedure. The same seismic source zones, magnitude recurrence parameters, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are used. We replicate the uniform hazard spectrum for a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years for a 500 km radial area around Victoria. An active Leech River fault zone is then added; known length and dip. We are determining magnitude recurrence parameters based on a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for the Leech River fault from various catalogues of the recorded seismicity (M 2-3) within the fault's vicinity and the proposed paleoseismic events. We seek to understand whether inclusion of an active Leech River fault source will significantly increase the probabilistic seismic hazard for Victoria. Morell et al. 2017. Quaternary rupture of a crustal fault beneath Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. GSA Today, 27, doi: 10.1130/GSATG291A.1

Neonatal nursery noise: practice-based learning and improvement.

PubMed

Hassanein, Sahar M A; El Raggal, Nehal M; Shalaby, Amani A

2013-03-01

To study the impact of interrupted loud noise in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) on neonatal physiologic parameters, and apply methods to alleviate noise sources through teaching NICU's staff. Noise level measured at different day times and during different noisy events in the NICU. Changes in the heart rate, respiratory rate and oxygen saturation were recorded just before and immediately after providing noisy events for 36 preterm and 26 full-term neonates. Focused training, guided by sound-level-meter, was provided to the NICU's staff to minimize noise. The highest mean baseline noise level, 60.5 decibel (dB), was recorded in the NICU critical care area at 12:00 am. The lowest level, 55.2 dB was recorded at 10:00 pm. Noise level inside the incubators was significantly lower than outside, p < 0.001. Noisy events resulted in a significant increase in heart and respiratory rates in preterm neonates as compared to full-terms, p < 0.05. Noise in our NICU exceeded the international permissible levels. Noisy events are numerous, which altered the neonates' physiologic stability especially preterm infants. Staff education is mandatory in ameliorating noise pollution with its deleterious effects on neonatal physiologic homeostasis.

Earthquake swarm of Himachal Pradesh in northwest Himalaya and its seismotectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rakesh; Prasath, R. Arun; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Naresh

2018-02-01

On the 27th of August 2016, a seismic swarm activity consisting of 58 earthquakes (1.5 ≤ ML ≤ 4.4), which occurred in Rampur area of the Kullu-Rampur Tectonic window of Himachal Pradesh in Northwest Himalaya. The epicenters of these events are located at the northern front of the Berinag Thrust in its hanging wall. To better understand the seismotectonics of this region, we analyzed the spectral source parameters and source mechanism of this swam activity. Spectral analysis shows the low stress drop values (from 0.05 to 28.9 bars), suggesting that the upper crust has low strength to withstand accumulated strain energy in this region. The Moment Tensor solutions of 12 earthquakes (≥2.7ML) obtained by waveform inversion yield the shallow centroid depths between 5 and 10 km. All these events are of dominantly thrust fault mechanism having an average dip angle of ∼30°. The P-axes and the maximum horizontal compressive stresses are NE-SW oriented; the relative motion of the Indian Plate. The present study reveals that the swarm activity in the Himachal region of NW Himalaya is related to the out-of-sequence thrusting or the Lesser Himalayan Duplex system.

Impact of Topography on Seismic Amplification During the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S.; van der Meijde, M.; van der Werff, H.; Shafique, M.

2016-12-01

This study assesses topographic amplification of seismic response during the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake in northern Pakistan. Topography scatters seismic waves, which causes variation in seismic response on the surface of the earth. During the Kashmir earthquake, topography induced amplification was suspected to have had major influence on the damage of infrastructure. We did a 3-dimensional simulation of the event using SPECFEM3D software. We first analyzed the impact of data resolution (mesh and Digital Elevation Model) on the derived seismic response. ASTER GDEM elevation data was used to build a 3D finite element mesh, and the parameters (latitude, longitude, depth, moment tensor) of the Kashmir earthquake were used in simulating the event. Our results show amplification of seismic response on ridges and de-amplification in valleys. It was also found that slopes facing away from the source receive an amplified seismic response when compared to slopes facing towards the source. The PGD would regularly fall within the range 0.23-5.8 meters. The topographic amplification causes local changes in the range of -2.50 to +3.50 meters; causing the PGD to fall in the range of 0.36-7.85 meters.

Source parameters of microearthquakes on an interplate asperity off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two earthquake cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru; Ellsworth, William L.; Imanishi, Kazutoshi; Shimamura, Kouhei; Hasegawa, Akira

2012-01-01

We have estimated the source parameters of interplate earthquakes in an earthquake cluster off Kamaishi, NE Japan over two cycles of M~ 4.9 repeating earthquakes. The M~ 4.9 earthquake sequence is composed of nine events that occurred since 1957 which have a strong periodicity (5.5 ± 0.7 yr) and constant size (M4.9 ± 0.2), probably due to stable sliding around the source area (asperity). Using P- and S-wave traveltime differentials estimated from waveform cross-spectra, three M~ 4.9 main shocks and 50 accompanying microearthquakes (M1.5–3.6) from 1995 to 2008 were precisely relocated. The source sizes, stress drops and slip amounts for earthquakes of M2.4 or larger were also estimated from corner frequencies and seismic moments using simultaneous inversion of stacked spectral ratios. Relocation using the double-difference method shows that the slip area of the 2008 M~ 4.9 main shock is co-located with those of the 1995 and 2001 M~ 4.9 main shocks. Four groups of microearthquake clusters are located in and around the mainshock slip areas. Of these, two clusters are located at the deeper and shallower edge of the slip areas and most of these microearthquakes occurred repeatedly in the interseismic period. Two other clusters located near the centre of the mainshock source areas are not as active as the clusters near the edge. The occurrence of these earthquakes is limited to the latter half of the earthquake cycles of the M~ 4.9 main shock. Similar spatial and temporal features of microearthquake occurrence were seen for two other cycles before the 1995 M5.0 and 1990 M5.0 main shocks based on group identification by waveform similarities. Stress drops of microearthquakes are 3–11 MPa and are relatively constant within each group during the two earthquake cycles. The 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 earthquakes have larger stress drops of 41 and 27 MPa, respectively. These results show that the stress drop is probably determined by the fault properties and does not change much for earthquakes rupturing in the same area. The occurrence of microearthquakes in the interseismic period suggests the intrusion of aseismic slip, causing a loading of these patches. We also found that some earthquakes near the centre of the mainshock source area occurred just after the earthquakes at the deeper edge of the mainshock source area. These seismic activities probably indicate episodic aseismic slip migrating from the deeper regions in the mainshock asperity to its centre during interseismic periods. Comparison of the source parameters for the 2001 and 2008 main shocks shows that the seismic moments (1.04 x 1016 Nm and 1.12 x 1016 Nm for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) and source sizes (radius = 570 m and 540 m for the 2008 and 2001 earthquakes, respectively) are comparable. Based on careful phase identification and hypocentre relocation by constraining the hypocentres of other small earthquakes to their precisely located centroids, we found that the hypocentres of the 2001 and 2008 M~ 4.9 events are located in the southeastern part of the mainshock source area. This location does not correspond to either episodic slip area or hypocentres of small earthquakes that occurred during the earthquake cycle.

Two Point Autocorrelation Analysis of Auger Highest Energy Events Backtracked in Galactic Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Yevgeniy

2009-10-01

Searches for sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays traditionally have included looking for clusters of event arrival directions on the sky. The smallest cluster is a pair of events falling within some angular window. In contrast to the standard two point (2-pt) autocorrelation analysis, this work takes into account influence of the galactic magnetic field (GMF). The highest energy events, those above 50EeV, collected by the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory between January 1, 2004 and May 31, 2009 are used in the analysis. Having assumed protons as primaries, events are backtracked through BSS/S, BSS/A, ASS/S and ASS/A versions of Harari-Mollerach-Roulet (HMR) model of the GMF. For each version of the model, a 2-pt autocorrelation analysis is applied to the backtracked events and to 105 isotropic Monte Carlo realizations weighted by the Auger exposure. Scans in energy, separation angular window and different model parameters reveal clustering at different angular scales. Small angle clustering at 2-3 deg is particularly interesting and it is compared between different field scenarios. The strength of the autocorrelation signal at those angular scales differs between BSS and ASS versions of the HMR model. The BSS versions of the model tend to defocus protons as they arrive to Earth whereas for the ASS, in contrary, it is more likely to focus them.

Waveform complexity caused by near trench structure and its impact on earthquake source study: application to the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Wei, S.; Wu, W.; Ni, S.

2017-12-01

Among various types of 3D heterogeneity in the Earth, trench might be the most complex systems, which includes rapidly varying bathymetry and usually thick sediment below water layer. These structure complexities can cause substantial waveform complexities on seismograms, but their corresponding impact on the earthquake source studies has not yet been well understood. Here we explore those effects via studies of two moderate aftershocks (one near the coast while the other close to the Peru-Chile trench axis) in the 2015 Illapel earthquake sequence. The horizontal locations and depths of these two events are poorly constrained and the reported results of various agencies display substantial variations. Thus, we first relocated the epicenters using the P-wave first arrivals and determined other parameters by waveform fitting. In a jackknifing way, we found that the trench event has large differences between regional and teleseismic solutions, in particular for depth, while the coastal event shows consistent results. The teleseismic P/Pdiff waves between these two events also display distinctly different features. More specifically, the trench event has more complex P/Pdiff waves and stronger coda waves, in terms of amplitude and duration (longer than 100s). The coda waves are coherent across stations at different distances and azimuths, indicating a more likely origin of scattering waves due to 3D heterogeneity near trench. To quantitatively model those 3D effects, we adopted a hybrid waveform simulation approach that computes the 3D wavefield in the source region by the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and then propagates the wavefield to teleseismic and shadow zone distances through the Direct Solution Method (DSM). We incorporated the GEBCO bathymetry and water layer into the SEM simulations and assumed the IASP91 1D model for DSM computation. Comparing with the poor 1D synthetics fitting to the data, we do obtain dramatic improvement in 3D waveform fittings across a series of frequency bands. With sensitivity tests of 3D waveform modeling, the centroid longitude and depth for the near trench event are refined. Our study suggests that the complex trench structure must be taken into account for a reliable analysis of shallow earthquake near trench, in particular for the shallowest tsunamigenic earthquakes.

Ecohydrology of Lodgepole Pine Forests: Connecting Transpiration to Subsurface Flow Paths and Storage within a Subalpine Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byers, A.; Harpold, A. A.; Barnard, H. R.

2011-12-01

The hydrologic cycle plays a central role in regulating ecosystem structure and function. Linked studies of both subsurface and aboveground processes are needed to improve understanding of ecosystem changes that could result from climate change and disturbance in Colorado's subalpine forests. Here, we present data from plots dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) at the Niwot Ridge LTER site on the Colorado Front Range that improves the process-level understanding of the source and fate of water between subsurface storage and plant uptake. This study utilized event-based sampling during the 2011 growing season to investigate a paradox between water sources and rooting depth in lodgepole pine. Findings from Niwot Ridge have shown that lodgepole, typically believed to be a shallow-rooted species, appear to be strongly dependent on water from snowmelt for the entire growing season. These results suggested that conifer species were accessing water from deeper in the soil than summer monsoon rain typically penetrated. In our study, the relationship between precipitation event size and depth of infiltration on a seasonal and event basis, the effective rooting depth of lodgepole pine, and hysteretic responses of transpiration to soil moisture over a growing season were examined using measurements of tree physiological processes (sap flux and water stress) and hydrological parameters (precipitation, soil moisture) as well as stable water isotope composition of xylem water, mobile and immobile soil water, snow, precipitation, and stream water. Analysis of data shows that soil moisture in deep layers (60 and 70 cm) responds to large summer rain events of 0.7 mm and greater, and that lodgepole sap flux increases by 15-30% within 24 hours of monsoon events and decreases over 72 hours or until subsequent rain. Water isotope analysis will further elucidate the source and event response of these trees. This research helps us understand whether processes known to occur in Mediterranean climate regimes, such as the "two water worlds" theory that tightly bound water in soil is available to trees but is separate from mobile water that drains to streams, also applies to continental mountainous climates. Furthermore, understanding the mediation of hydrologic processes by trees like lodgepole pine will improve modeling of hydrological and ecological processes and knowledge of forest susceptibility to climate change and other disturbance impacts.

Microseismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hanchen; Alkhalifah, Tariq

2018-07-01

At the heart of microseismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source microseismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional microseismic source locating methods require, in many cases, manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image microseismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, FWI of microseismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent FWI of microseismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modelled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers are calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

Source process of the Sikkim earthquake 18th September, 2011, inferred from teleseismic body-wave inversion.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earnest, A.; Sunil, T. C.

2014-12-01

The recent earthquake of Mw 6.9 occurred on September 18, 2011 in Sikkim-Nepal border region. The hypocenter parameters determined by the Indian Meteorological Department shows that the epicentre is at 27.7°N, 88.2°E and focal depth of 58Km, located closed to the north-western terminus of Tista lineament. The reported aftershocks are linearly distributed in between Tista and Golapara lineament. The microscopic and geomorphologic studies infer a dextral strike-slip faulting, possibly along a NW-SE oriented fault. Landslides caused by this earthquake are distributed along Tista lineament . On the basis of the aftershock distribution, Kumar et al. (2012), have suggested possible NW orientation of the causative fault plane. The epicentral region of Sikkim bordered by Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet, comprises a segment of relatively lower level seismicity in the 2500km stretch of the active Himalayan Belt. The north Sikkim earthquake was felt in most parts of Sikkim and eastern Nepal; it killed more than 100 people and caused damage to buildings, roads and communication infrastructure. Through this study we focus on the earthquake source parameters and the kinematic rupture process of this particular event. We used tele-seismic body waveformsto determine the rupture pattern of earthquake. The seismic-rupture pattern are generally complex, and the result could be interpreted in terms of a distribution of asperities and barriers on the particular fault plane (Kikuchi and Kanamori, 1991).The methodology we adopted is based on the teleseismic body wave inversion methodology by Kikuchi and Kanamori (1982, 1986 and 1991). We used tele-seismic P-wave records observed at teleseismic distances between 50° and 90° with a good signal to noise ratio. Teleseismic distances in the range between 50° and 90° were used, in order to avoid upper mantle and core triplications and to limit the path length within the crust. Synthetic waveforms were generated gives a better fit with triangular source time function duration, in order to determine the components of the moment tensor and the focal depth of the main shock. we will discussing the average stress drop and the possible mechanisms on the depth of the event at a region well known for events beyond moho transsion zone.

Exact solutions and phenomenological constraints from massive scalars in a gravity's rainbow spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezerra, V. B.; Christiansen, H. R.; Cunha, M. S.; Muniz, C. R.

2017-07-01

We obtain the exact (confluent Heun) solutions to the massive scalar field in a gravity's rainbow Schwarzschild metric. With these solutions at hand, we study the Hawking radiation resulting from the tunneling rate through the event horizon. We show that the emission spectrum obeys nonextensive statistics and is halted when a certain mass remnant is reached. Next, we infer constraints on the rainbow parameters from recent LHC particle physics experiments and Hubble STIS astrophysics measurements. Finally, we study the low frequency limit in order to find the modified energy spectrum around the source.

A 9700-hour durability test of a five centimeter diameter ion thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nakanishi, S.; Finke, R. C.

1973-01-01

A modified Hughes SIT-5 thruster was life-tested at the Lewis Research Center. The final 2700 hours of the test are described with a charted history of thruster operating parameters and off-normal events. Performance and operating characteristics were nearly constant throughout the test except for neutralizer heater power requirements and accelerator drain current. A post-shutdown inspection revealed sputter erosion of ion chamber components and component flaking of sputtered metal. Several flakes caused beamlet divergence and anomalous grid erosion, causing the test to be terminated. All sputter erosion sources were identified.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henderson, C. B.; Gould, A.; Gaudi, B. S.

The mass of the lenses giving rise to Galactic microlensing events can be constrained by measuring the relative lens-source proper motion and lens flux. The flux of the lens can be separated from that of the source, companions to the source, and unrelated nearby stars with high-resolution images taken when the lens and source are spatially resolved. For typical ground-based adaptive optics (AO) or space-based observations, this requires either inordinately long time baselines or high relative proper motions. We provide a list of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge with high relative lens-source proper motion that are therefore good candidatesmore » for constraining the lens mass with future high-resolution imaging. We investigate all events from 2004 to 2013 that display detectable finite-source effects, a feature that allows us to measure the proper motion. In total, we present 20 events with μ ≳ 8 mas yr{sup –1}. Of these, 14 were culled from previous analyses while 6 are new, including OGLE-2004-BLG-368, MOA-2005-BLG-36, OGLE-2012-BLG-0211, OGLE-2012-BLG-0456, MOA-2012-BLG-532, and MOA-2013-BLG-029. In ≲12 yr from the time of each event the lens and source of each event will be sufficiently separated for ground-based telescopes with AO systems or space telescopes to resolve each component and further characterize the lens system. Furthermore, for the most recent events, comparison of the lens flux estimates from images taken immediately to those estimated from images taken when the lens and source are resolved can be used to empirically check the robustness of the single-epoch method currently being used to estimate lens masses for many events.« less

A Bayesian approach to multi-messenger astronomy: identification of gravitational-wave host galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, XiLong; Messenger, Christopher; Heng, Ik Siong

We present a general framework for incorporating astrophysical information into Bayesian parameter estimation techniques used by gravitational wave data analysis to facilitate multi-messenger astronomy. Since the progenitors of transient gravitational wave events, such as compact binary coalescences, are likely to be associated with a host galaxy, improvements to the source sky location estimates through the use of host galaxy information are explored. To demonstrate how host galaxy properties can be included, we simulate a population of compact binary coalescences and show that for ∼8.5% of simulations within 200 Mpc, the top 10 most likely galaxies account for a ∼50% ofmore » the total probability of hosting a gravitational wave source. The true gravitational wave source host galaxy is in the top 10 galaxy candidates ∼10% of the time. Furthermore, we show that by including host galaxy information, a better estimate of the inclination angle of a compact binary gravitational wave source can be obtained. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our method by incorporating the use of either the B or K band into our analysis.« less

Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

2010-07-01

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

Multimessenger search for sources of gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos: Initial results for LIGO-Virgo and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aartsen, M. G.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Altmann, D.; Anderson, T.; Arguelles, C.; Arlen, T. C.; Auffenberg, J.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; BenZvi, S.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bernhard, A.; Besson, D. Z.; Binder, G.; Bindig, D.; Bissok, M.; Blaufuss, E.; Blumenthal, J.; Boersma, D. J.; Bohm, C.; Bos, F.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Brayeur, L.; Bretz, H.-P.; Brown, A. M.; Casey, J.; Casier, M.; Chirkin, D.; Christov, A.; Christy, B.; Clark, K.; Classen, L.; Clevermann, F.; Coenders, S.; Cowen, D. F.; Cruz Silva, A. H.; Danninger, M.; Daughhetee, J.; Davis, J. C.; Day, M.; de André, J. P. A. M.; De Clercq, C.; De Ridder, S.; Desiati, P.; de Vries, K. D.; de With, M.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; Dunkman, M.; Eagan, R.; Eberhardt, B.; Eichmann, B.; Eisch, J.; Euler, S.; Evenson, P. A.; Fadiran, O.; Fazely, A. R.; Fedynitch, A.; Feintzeig, J.; Felde, J.; Feusels, T.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Fischer-Wasels, T.; Flis, S.; Franckowiak, A.; Frantzen, K.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Gier, D.; Gladstone, L.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Golup, G.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Goodman, J. A.; Góra, D.; Grandmont, D. T.; Grant, D.; Gretskov, P.; Groh, J. C.; Groß, A.; Ha, C.; Haack, C.; Haj Ismail, A.; Hallen, P.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hanson, K.; Hebecker, D.; Heereman, D.; Heinen, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hellwig, D.; Hickford, S.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Homeier, A.; Hoshina, K.; Huang, F.; Huelsnitz, W.; Hulth, P. O.; Hultqvist, K.; Hussain, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Jacobsen, J.; Jagielski, K.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jero, K.; Jlelati, O.; Jurkovic, M.; Kaminsky, B.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Kauer, M.; Kelley, J. L.; Kheirandish, A.; Kiryluk, J.; Kläs, J.; Klein, S. R.; Köhne, J.-H.; Kohnen, G.; Kolanoski, H.; Koob, A.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Kriesten, A.; Krings, K.; Kroll, G.; Kroll, M.; Kunnen, J.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Labare, M.; Larsen, D. T.; Larson, M. J.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Leuermann, M.; Leute, J.; Lünemann, J.; Macías, O.; Madsen, J.; Maggi, G.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Matis, H. S.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Medici, M.; Meli, A.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Middell, E.; Middlemas, E.; Milke, N.; Miller, J.; Mohrmann, L.; Montaruli, T.; Morse, R.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naumann, U.; Niederhausen, H.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke, A.; Odrowski, S.; Olivas, A.; Omairat, A.; O'Murchadha, A.; Palczewski, T.; Paul, L.; Penek, Ö.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pfendner, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pinat, E.; Posselt, J.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Pütz, J.; Quinnan, M.; Rädel, L.; Rameez, M.; Rawlins, K.; Redl, P.; Rees, I.; Reimann, R.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Richman, M.; Riedel, B.; Robertson, S.; Rodrigues, J. P.; Rongen, M.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ruzybayev, B.; Ryckbosch, D.; Saba, S. M.; Sander, H.-G.; Sandroos, J.; Santander, M.; Sarkar, S.; Schatto, K.; Scheriau, F.; Schmidt, T.; Schmitz, M.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schönwald, A.; Schukraft, A.; Schulte, L.; Schulz, O.; Seckel, D.; Sestayo, Y.; Seunarine, S.; Shanidze, R.; Sheremata, C.; Smith, M. W. E.; Soldin, D.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stamatikos, M.; Stanev, T.; Stanisha, N. A.; Stasik, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Strahler, E. A.; Ström, R.; Strotjohann, N. L.; Sullivan, G. W.; Taavola, H.; Taboada, I.; Tamburro, A.; Tepe, A.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Terliuk, A.; Tešić, G.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Tobin, M. N.; Tosi, D.; Tselengidou, M.; Unger, E.; Usner, M.; Vallecorsa, S.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vandenbroucke, J.; van Santen, J.; Vehring, M.; Voge, M.; Vraeghe, M.; Walck, C.; Wallraff, M.; Weaver, Ch.; Wellons, M.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Whitehorn, N.; Wichary, C.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Williams, D. R.; Wissing, H.; Wolf, M.; Wood, T. R.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zarzhitsky, P.; Ziemann, J.; Zierke, S.; Zoll, M.; Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amariutei, D.; Andersen, M.; Anderson, R. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Augustus, H.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Belczynski, C.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Bergmann, G.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, Sukanta; Bosi, L.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brückner, F.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burman, R.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campsie, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Carbone, L.; Caride, S.; Castaldi, G.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Celerier, C.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, D. E.; Clark, J. A.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C.; Colombini, M.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Croce, R. P.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M.; Dickson, J.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dolique, V.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Endrőczi, G.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Feroz, F.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S.; Garufi, F.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grover, K.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C. J.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Ha, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hamilton, W.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Horrom, T.; Hoske, D.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jaranowski, P.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; K, Haris; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karlen, J.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, S.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Koranda, S.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, D. Nanda; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lam, P. K.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, J.; Lee, P. J.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Le Roux, A.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Lodhia, D.; Loew, K.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lopez, E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Ma, Y.; Macdonald, E. P.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Manca, G. M.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mangini, N. M.; Mansell, G.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martinelli, L.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; May, G.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meidam, J.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mingarelli, C. M. F.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nagy, M. F.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, I.; Neri, M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Omar, S.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pan, H.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Pedraza, M.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Poggiani, R.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramet, C.; Ramirez, K.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Recchia, S.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S. B.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sankar, S.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Saracco, E.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schilman, M.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Stops, D.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tao, J.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Tuennermann, H.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wiesner, K.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, K.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williams, T. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Wolovick, N.; Worden, J.; Wu, Y.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, H.; Yoshida, S.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.; IceCube Collaboration^*

2014-11-01

We report the results of a multimessenger search for coincident signals from the LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave observatories and the partially completed IceCube high-energy neutrino detector, including periods of joint operation between 2007-2010. These include parts of the 2005-2007 run and the 2009-2010 run for LIGO-Virgo, and IceCube's observation periods with 22, 59 and 79 strings. We find no significant coincident events, and use the search results to derive upper limits on the rate of joint sources for a range of source emission parameters. For the optimistic assumption of gravitational-wave emission energy of 10-2 M⊙c2 at ˜150 Hz with ˜60 ms duration, and high-energy neutrino emission of 1 051 erg comparable to the isotropic gamma-ray energy of gamma-ray bursts, we limit the source rate below 1.6 ×1 0-2 Mpc-3 yr-1 . We also examine how combining information from gravitational waves and neutrinos will aid discovery in the advanced gravitational-wave detector era.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zúñiga, F. Ramón; Suárez, Gerardo; Figueroa-Soto, Ángel; Mendoza, Avith

2017-11-01

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.

Source characteristics of 2000 small earthquakes nucleating on the Alto Tiberina fault system (central Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munafo, I.; Malagnini, L.; Tinti, E.; Chiaraluce, L.; Di Stefano, R.; Valoroso, L.

2014-12-01

The Alto Tiberina Fault (ATF) is a 60 km long east-dipping low-angle normal fault, located in a sector of the Northern Apennines (Italy) undergoing active extension since the Quaternary. The ATF has been imaged by analyzing the active source seismic reflection profiles, and the instrumentally recorded persistent background seismicity. The present study is an attempt to separate the contributions of source, site, and crustal attenuation, in order to focus on the mechanics of the seismic sources on the ATF, as well on the synthetic and the antithetic structures within the ATF hanging-wall (i.e. Colfiorito fault, Gubbio fault and Umbria Valley fault). In order to compute source spectra, we perform a set of regressions over the seismograms of 2000 small earthquakes (-0.8 < ML< 4) recorded between 2010 and 2014 at 50 permanent seismic stations deployed in the framework of the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory project (TABOO) and equipped with three-components seismometers, three of which located in shallow boreholes. Because we deal with some very small earthquakes, we maximize the signal to noise ratio (SNR) with a technique based on the analysis of peak values of bandpass-filtered time histories, in addition to the same processing performed on Fourier amplitudes. We rely on a tool called Random Vibration Theory (RVT) to completely switch from peak values in the time domain to Fourier spectral amplitudes. Low-frequency spectral plateau of the source terms are used to compute moment magnitudes (Mw) of all the events, whereas a source spectral ratio technique is used to estimate the corner frequencies (Brune spectral model) of a subset of events chosen over the analysis of the noise affecting the spectral ratios. So far, the described approach provides high accuracy over the spectral parameters of earthquakes of localized seismicity, and may be used to gain insights into the underlying mechanics of faulting and the earthquake processes.

Synthesizing 3D Surfaces from Parameterized Strip Charts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Peter I.; Gomez, Julian; Morehouse, Michael; Gawdiak, Yuri

2004-01-01

We believe 3D information visualization has the power to unlock new levels of productivity in the monitoring and control of complex processes. Our goal is to provide visual methods to allow for rapid human insight into systems consisting of thousands to millions of parameters. We explore this hypothesis in two complex domains: NASA program management and NASA International Space Station (ISS) spacecraft computer operations. We seek to extend a common form of visualization called the strip chart from 2D to 3D. A strip chart can display the time series progression of a parameter and allows for trends and events to be identified. Strip charts can be overlayed when multiple parameters need to visualized in order to correlate their events. When many parameters are involved, the direct overlaying of strip charts can become confusing and may not fully utilize the graphing area to convey the relationships between the parameters. We provide a solution to this problem by generating 3D surfaces from parameterized strip charts. The 3D surface utilizes significantly more screen area to illustrate the differences in the parameters and the overlayed strip charts, and it can rapidly be scanned by humans to gain insight. The selection of the third dimension must be a parallel or parameterized homogenous resource in the target domain, defined using a finite, ordered, enumerated type, and not a heterogeneous type. We demonstrate our concepts with examples from the NASA program management domain (assessing the state of many plans) and the computers of the ISS (assessing the state of many computers). We identify 2D strip charts in each domain and show how to construct the corresponding 3D surfaces. The user can navigate the surface, zooming in on regions of interest, setting a mark and drilling down to source documents from which the data points have been derived. We close by discussing design issues, related work, and implementation challenges.

Using discharge data to reduce structural deficits in a hydrological model with a Bayesian inference approach and the implications for the prediction of critical source areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, M. P.; Stamm, C.; Schneider, M. K.; Reichert, P.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the distribution of fast runoff formation as a proxy for critical source areas for herbicide pollution in a small agricultural catchment in Switzerland. We tested to what degree predictions based on prior knowledge without local measurements could be improved upon relying on observed discharge. This learning process consisted of five steps: For the prior prediction (step 1), knowledge of the model parameters was coarse and predictions were fairly uncertain. In the second step, discharge data were used to update the prior parameter distribution. Effects of uncertainty in input data and model structure were accounted for by an autoregressive error model. This step decreased the width of the marginal distributions of parameters describing the lower boundary (percolation rates) but hardly affected soil hydraulic parameters. Residual analysis (step 3) revealed model structure deficits. We modified the model, and in the subsequent Bayesian updating (step 4) the widths of the posterior marginal distributions were reduced for most parameters compared to those of the prior. This incremental procedure led to a strong reduction in the uncertainty of the spatial prediction. Thus, despite only using spatially integrated data (discharge), the spatially distributed effect of the improved model structure can be expected to improve the spatially distributed predictions also. The fifth step consisted of a test with independent spatial data on herbicide losses and revealed ambiguous results. The comparison depended critically on the ratio of event to preevent water that was discharged. This ratio cannot be estimated from hydrological data only. The results demonstrate that the value of local data is strongly dependent on a correct model structure. An iterative procedure of Bayesian updating, model testing, and model modification is suggested.

Coda Q Attenuation and Source Parameters Analysis in North East India Using Local Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, A. K.; Mohanty, W. K.; Earthquake Seismology

2010-12-01

Alok Kumar Mohapatra1* and William Kumar Mohanty1 *Corresponding author: alokgpiitkgp@gmail.com 1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India. Pin-721302 ABSTRACT In the present study, the quality factor of coda waves (Qc) and the source parameters has been estimated for the Northeastern India, using the digital data of ten local earthquakes from April 2001 to November 2002. Earthquakes with magnitude range from 3.8 to 4.9 have been taken into account. The time domain coda decay method of a single back scattering model is used to calculate frequency dependent values of Coda Q (Qc) where as, the source parameters like seismic moment(Mo), stress drop, source radius(r), radiant energy(Wo),and strain drop are estimated using displacement amplitude spectrum of body wave using Brune's model. The earthquakes with magnitude range 3.8 to 4.9 have been used for estimation Qc at six central frequencies 1.5 Hz, 3.0 Hz, 6.0 Hz, 9.0 Hz, 12.0 Hz, and 18.0 Hz. In the present work, the Qc value of local earthquakes are estimated to understand the attenuation characteristic, source parameters and tectonic activity of the region. Based on a criteria of homogeneity in the geological characteristics and the constrains imposed by the distribution of available events the study region has been classified into three zones such as the Tibetan Plateau Zone (TPZ), Bengal Alluvium and Arakan-Yuma Zone (BAZ), Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). It follows the power law Qc= Qo (f/fo)n where, Qo is the quality factor at the reference frequency (1Hz) fo and n is the frequency parameter which varies from region to region. The mean values of Qc reveals a dependence on frequency, varying from 292.9 at 1.5 Hz to 4880.1 at 18 Hz. Average frequency dependent relationship Qc values obtained of the Northeastern India is 198 f 1.035, while this relationship varies from the region to region such as, Tibetan Plateau Zone (TPZ): Qc= 226 f 1.11, Bengal Alluvium and Arakan-Yuma Zone (BAZ) : Qc= 301 f 0.87, Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ): Qc=126 fo 0.85. It indicates Northeastern India is seismically active but comparing of all zones in the study region the Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ): Qc= 126 f 0.85 is seismically most active. Where as the Bengal Alluvium and Arakan-Yuma Zone (BAZ) are less active and out of three the Tibetan Plateau Zone (TPZ)is intermediate active. This study may be useful for the seismic hazard assessment. The estimated seismic moments (Mo), range from 5.98×1020 to 3.88×1023 dyne-cm. The source radii(r) are confined between 152 to 1750 meter, the stress drop ranges between 0.0003×103 bar to 1.04×103 bar, the average radiant energy is 82.57×1018 ergs and the strain drop for the earthquake ranges from 0.00602×10-9 to 2.48×10-9 respectively. The estimated stress drop values for NE India depicts scattered nature of the larger seismic moment value whereas, they show a more systematic nature for smaller seismic moment values. The estimated source parameters are in agreement to previous works in this type of tectonic set up. Key words: Coda wave, Seismic source parameters, Lapse time, single back scattering model, Brune's model, Stress drop and North East India.

Inpatient-Derived Vital Sign Parameters Implementation: An Initiative to Decrease Alarm Burden.

PubMed

Kipps, Alaina K; Poole, Sarah F; Slaney, Cheryl; Feehan, Shannon; Longhurst, Christopher A; Sharek, Paul J; Goel, Veena V

2017-08-01

To implement data-driven vital sign parameters to reduce bedside monitor alarm burden. Single-center, quality-improvement initiative with historical controls assessing the impact of age-based, inpatient-derived heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) parameters on a 20-bed acute care ward that serves primarily pediatric cardiology patients. The primary outcome was the number of alarms per monitored bed day (MBD) with the aim to decrease the alarms per MBD. Balancing measures included the frequency of missed rapid response team activations, acute respiratory code events, and cardiorespiratory arrest events in the unit with the new vital sign parameters. The median number of all cardiorespiratory monitor alarms per MBD decreased by 21% from 52 (baseline period) to 41 (postintervention period) ( P < .001). This included a 17% decrease in the median HR alarms (9-7.5 per MBD) and a 53% drop in RR alarms (16.8-8.0 per MBD). There were 57 rapid response team activations, 8 acute respiratory code events, and no cardiorespiratory arrest events after the implementation of the new parameters. An evaluation of HRs and RRs recorded at the time of the event revealed that all patients with HRs and/or RRs out of range per former default parameters would also be out of range with the new parameters. Implementation of data-driven HR and iteratively derived RR parameters safely decreased the total alarm frequency by 21% in a pediatric acute care unit. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Historical sources on climate and extreme events before XX century in Calabria (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Petrucci, Olga

2014-05-01

Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena, such as landslides and floods, triggered by extreme rain events. Due to the huge damage that they can cause to people and properties, DHEs are often described in a wide series of historical sources. The historical series of DHEs that affected a study region can supply useful information about the climatic trend of the area. Moreover, it can reveals temporal and spatial increases in vulnerability affecting sectors where urbanization increased throughout the time. On the other side, it can highlight further vulnerability variations occurred throughout the decades and related to specific defensive measures undertaken (or abandoned) in order to prevent damage caused by either landslides or floods. We present the historical series of catastrophic DHEs which affected a Mediterranean region named Calabria that is located in southern Italy. Data presented came from the database named ASICal (the Italian acronym of historically flooded areas in Calabria) that has been built at the beginning of 2000 at CNR-IRPI of Cosenza and that has been continuously updated since then. Currently, this database includes more than 11,000 records about floods and landslides which have been occurred in Calabria since the XVI century. These data came from different information sources as newspapers, archives of regional and national agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and so on. ASICal is constantly updated. The updating concerns both current DHEs that every years affect the region, and the results of specific historical research that we regularly perform in order to fill data gaps for older epochs. In this work we present the result of a recent survey carried out in some regional public libraries focusing on the early-mid XIX century. The type of data sources available for the regional framework are described and a sketch of the DHEs trend during the last three centuries is presented. Moreover, a panoramic view of both proxy data and irregularly measured parameters concerning climatic trend of the region obtained from the analyzed historical sources is also shown.

A Composite Source Model With Fractal Subevent Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Zahradnik, J.

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a pos- sible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock) . The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled as a finite source, using kinematic approach (radial rupture propagation, constant rupture velocity, boxcar slip-velocity function, with constant rise time on the subevent). The final slip at each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Variation of rise time with subevent size is a free parameter of modeling. The nucleation point of each subevent is taken as the point closest to mainshock hypocentre. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally lay- ered crustal model in a relatively coarse grid of points covering the fault plane. The Green's functions needed for the kinematic model in a fine grid are obtained by cu- bic spline interpolation. As different frequencies may be efficiently calculated with different sampling, the interpolation simplifies and speeds-up the procedure signifi- cantly. The composite source model described above allows interpretation in terms of a kinematic model with non-uniform final slip and rupture velocity spatial distribu- tions. The 1994 Northridge earthquake (Mw = 6.7) is used as a validation event. The strong-ground motion modeling of the 1999 Athens earthquake (Mw = 5.9) is also performed.

Source Characterization of the 2015 Collapse in Gypsum Mine in Shandong, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Chu, R.; Sheng, M.

2016-12-01

Source parameters of mining earthquakes are essential to investigating pressure redistribution and accumulation due to underground excavation. On 25 December 2015, a local magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred at 07:56:12 BJT in Pingyi County, China (latitude: 35.5°N, longitude: 117.7°E) with a depth of 0 km. This earthquake is caused by underground cave collapse. In this paper, we used sliding-window cross-correlation method to detect aftershocks of this event. The result indicates there are at least six aftershocks within ten minutes after the earthquake. Then we inverted focal mechanisms and depths of the mainshock and the largest aftershock with three-component broadband seismic waveform data recorded by the National Seismic Network. We use the generalized Cut-and-Paste (gCAP) method to obtain their moment tensors, which allows for a characterization of the relative amounts of deviatoric and isotropic source components. This gCAP method divides three component waveforms into Pnl and surface wave segments, and allows adjustable time shifts between observed and synthetic data, so that it reduces the influence of uncertainties in the 1-D velocity model. The results show that both events have similar focal mechanisms, which contains obvious non-double-couple component with a large proportion of isotropic source component. The mechanisms are dominated by 80% implosive isotropic energy and 20% thrusting double couple energy. Such mechanisms might be explained by an asymmetric collapse of the mine cavity due to unevenly distributed in situ stresses, sympathetic shear on a roof fault, or between the roof and floor of the mine.

anisotropic microseismic focal mechanism inversion by waveform imaging matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Chang, X.; Wang, Y.; Xue, Z.

2016-12-01

The focal mechanism is one of the most important parameters in source inversion, for both natural earthquakes and human-induced seismic events. It has been reported to be useful for understanding stress distribution and evaluating the fracturing effect. The conventional focal mechanism inversion method picks the first arrival waveform of P wave. This method assumes the source as a Double Couple (DC) type and the media isotropic, which is usually not the case for induced seismic focal mechanism inversion. For induced seismic events, the inappropriate source and media model in inversion processing, by introducing ambiguity or strong simulation errors, will seriously reduce the inversion effectiveness. First, the focal mechanism contains significant non-DC source type. Generally, the source contains three components: DC, isotropic (ISO) and the compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD), which makes focal mechanisms more complicated. Second, the anisotropy of media will affect travel time and waveform to generate inversion bias. The common way to describe focal mechanism inversion is based on moment tensor (MT) inversion which can be decomposed into the combination of DC, ISO and CLVD components. There are two ways to achieve MT inversion. The wave-field migration method is applied to achieve moment tensor imaging. This method can construct elements imaging of MT in 3D space without picking the first arrival, but the retrieved MT value is influenced by imaging resolution. The full waveform inversion is employed to retrieve MT. In this method, the source position and MT can be reconstructed simultaneously. However, this method needs vast numerical calculation. Moreover, the source position and MT also influence each other in the inversion process. In this paper, the waveform imaging matching (WIM) method is proposed, which combines source imaging with waveform inversion for seismic focal mechanism inversion. Our method uses the 3D tilted transverse isotropic (TTI) elastic wave equation to approximate wave propagating in anisotropic media. First, a source imaging procedure is employed to obtain the source position. Second, we refine a waveform inversion algorithm to retrieve MT. We also use a microseismic data set recorded in surface acquisition to test our method.

The 26 December 2004 tsunami source estimated from satellite radar altimetry and seismic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Tony Y.; Ji, Chen; Fu, L. -L.; Zlotnicki, Victor; Shum, C. K.; Yi, Yuchan; Hjorleifsdottir, Vala

2005-01-01

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the first earthquake tsunami of its magnitude to occur since the advent of both digital seismometry and satellite radar altimetry. Both have independently recorded the event from different physical aspects. The seismic data has then been used to estimate the earthquake fault parameters, and a three-dimensional ocean-general-circulation-model (OGCM) coupled with the fault information has been used to simulate the satellite-observed tsunami waves. Here we show that these two datasets consistently provide the tsunami source using independent methodologies of seismic waveform inversion and ocean modeling. Cross-examining the two independent results confirms that the slip function is the most important condition controlling the tsunami strength, while the geometry and the rupture velocity of the tectonic plane determine the spatial patterns of the tsunami.

HYPOELLIPSE; a computer program for determining local earthquake hypocentral parameters, magnitude, and first-motion pattern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lahr, John C.

1999-01-01

This report provides Fortran source code and program manuals for HYPOELLIPSE, a computer program for determining hypocenters and magnitudes of near regional earthquakes and the ellipsoids that enclose the 68-percent confidence volumes of the computed hypocenters. HYPOELLIPSE was developed to meet the needs of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists studying crustal and sub-crustal earthquakes recorded by a sparse regional seismograph network. The program was extended to locate hypocenters of volcanic earthquakes recorded by seismographs distributed on and around the volcanic edifice, at elevations above and below the hypocenter. HYPOELLIPSE was used to locate events recorded by the USGS southern Alaska seismograph network from October 1971 to the early 1990s. Both UNIX and PC/DOS versions of the source code of the program are provided along with sample runs.