Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

POPULATION EXPOSURES TO PARTICULATE MATTER: A COMPARISON OF EXPOSURE MODEL PREDICTIONS AND MEASUREMENT DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) is currently developing an integrated human exposure source-to-dose modeling system (HES2D). This modeling system will incorporate models that use a probabilistic approach to predict population exposures to environmental ...

Modeling deep brain stimulation: point source approximation versus realistic representation of the electrode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tianhe C.; Grill, Warren M.

2010-12-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has emerged as an effective treatment for movement disorders; however, the fundamental mechanisms by which DBS works are not well understood. Computational models of DBS can provide insights into these fundamental mechanisms and typically require two steps: calculation of the electrical potentials generated by DBS and, subsequently, determination of the effects of the extracellular potentials on neurons. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of using a point source electrode to approximate the DBS electrode when calculating the thresholds and spatial distribution of activation of a surrounding population of model neurons in response to monopolar DBS. Extracellular potentials in a homogenous isotropic volume conductor were calculated using either a point current source or a geometrically accurate finite element model of the Medtronic DBS 3389 lead. These extracellular potentials were coupled to populations of model axons, and thresholds and spatial distributions were determined for different electrode geometries and axon orientations. Median threshold differences between DBS and point source electrodes for individual axons varied between -20.5% and 9.5% across all orientations, monopolar polarities and electrode geometries utilizing the DBS 3389 electrode. Differences in the percentage of axons activated at a given amplitude by the point source electrode and the DBS electrode were between -9.0% and 12.6% across all monopolar configurations tested. The differences in activation between the DBS and point source electrodes occurred primarily in regions close to conductor-insulator interfaces and around the insulating tip of the DBS electrode. The robustness of the point source approximation in modeling several special cases—tissue anisotropy, a long active electrode and bipolar stimulation—was also examined. Under the conditions considered, the point source was shown to be a valid approximation for predicting excitation of populations of neurons in response to DBS.

Revealing unobserved factors underlying cortical activity with a rectified latent variable model applied to neural population recordings.

PubMed

Whiteway, Matthew R; Butts, Daniel A

2017-03-01

The activity of sensory cortical neurons is not only driven by external stimuli but also shaped by other sources of input to the cortex. Unlike external stimuli, these other sources of input are challenging to experimentally control, or even observe, and as a result contribute to variability of neural responses to sensory stimuli. However, such sources of input are likely not "noise" and may play an integral role in sensory cortex function. Here we introduce the rectified latent variable model (RLVM) in order to identify these sources of input using simultaneously recorded cortical neuron populations. The RLVM is novel in that it employs nonnegative (rectified) latent variables and is much less restrictive in the mathematical constraints on solutions because of the use of an autoencoder neural network to initialize model parameters. We show that the RLVM outperforms principal component analysis, factor analysis, and independent component analysis, using simulated data across a range of conditions. We then apply this model to two-photon imaging of hundreds of simultaneously recorded neurons in mouse primary somatosensory cortex during a tactile discrimination task. Across many experiments, the RLVM identifies latent variables related to both the tactile stimulation as well as nonstimulus aspects of the behavioral task, with a majority of activity explained by the latter. These results suggest that properly identifying such latent variables is necessary for a full understanding of sensory cortical function and demonstrate novel methods for leveraging large population recordings to this end. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The rapid development of neural recording technologies presents new opportunities for understanding patterns of activity across neural populations. Here we show how a latent variable model with appropriate nonlinear form can be used to identify sources of input to a neural population and infer their time courses. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these sources are related to behavioral contexts outside of direct experimental control. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Merging Models and Biomonitoring Data to Characterize Sources andPathways of Human Exposure to Organophosphorous Pesticides in the SalinasValley of California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKone, Thomas E.; Castorina, Rosemary; Kuwabara, Yu

2006-06-01

By drawing on human biomonitoring data and limited environmental samples together with outputs from the CalTOX multimedia, multipathway source-to-dose model, we characterize cumulative intake of organophosphorous (OP) pesticides in an agricultural region of California. We assemble regional OP pesticide use, environmental sampling, and biological tissue monitoring data for a large and geographically dispersed population cohort of 592 pregnant Latina women in California (the CHAMACOS cohort). We then use CalTOX with regional pesticide usage data to estimate the magnitude and uncertainty of exposure and intake from local sources. We combine model estimates of intake from local sources with food intake basedmore » on national residue data to estimate for the CHAMACOS cohort cumulative median OP intake, which corresponds to expected levels of urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) metabolite excretion for this cohort. From these results we develop premises about relative contributions from different sources and pathways of exposure. We evaluate these premises by comparing the magnitude and variation of DAPs in the CHAMACOS cohort with the whole U.S. population using data from the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES). This comparison supports the premise that in both populations diet is the common and dominant exposure pathway. Both the model results and biomarker comparison supports the observation that the CHAMACOS population has a statistically significant higher intake of OP pesticides that appears as an almost constant additional dose among all participants. We attribute the magnitude and small variance of this intake to non-dietary exposure in residences from local sources.« less

ASSESSING MULTIMEDIA/MULTIPATHWAY EXPOSURE TO ARSENIC USING A MECHANISTIC SOURCE-TO-DOSE MODELING FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

A series of case studies is presented focusing on multimedia/multipathway population exposures to arsenic, employing the Population Based Modeling approach of the MENTOR (Modeling Environment for Total Risks) framework. This framework considers currently five exposure routes: i...

AMI-LA observations of the SuperCLASS supercluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riseley, C. J.; Grainge, K. J. B.; Perrott, Y. C.; Scaife, A. M. M.; Battye, R. A.; Beswick, R. J.; Birkinshaw, M.; Brown, M. L.; Casey, C. M.; Demetroullas, C.; Hales, C. A.; Harrison, I.; Hung, C.-L.; Jackson, N. J.; Muxlow, T.; Watson, B.; Cantwell, T. M.; Carey, S. H.; Elwood, P. J.; Hickish, J.; Jin, T. Z.; Razavi-Ghods, N.; Scott, P. F.; Titterington, D. J.

2018-03-01

We present a deep survey of the Super-Cluster Assisted Shear Survey (SuperCLASS) supercluster - a region of sky known to contain five Abell clusters at redshift z ˜ 0.2 - performed using the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) Large Array (LA) at 15.5 GHz. Our survey covers an area of approximately 0.9 deg2. We achieve a nominal sensitivity of 32.0 μJy beam-1 towards the field centre, finding 80 sources above a 5σ threshold. We derive the radio colour-colour distribution for sources common to three surveys that cover the field and identify three sources with strongly curved spectra - a high-frequency-peaked source and two GHz-peaked-spectrum sources. The differential source count (i) agrees well with previous deep radio source counts, (ii) exhibits no evidence of an emerging population of star-forming galaxies, down to a limit of 0.24 mJy, and (iii) disagrees with some models of the 15 GHz source population. However, our source count is in agreement with recent work that provides an analytical correction to the source count from the Square Kilometre Array Design Study (SKADS) Simulated Sky, supporting the suggestion that this discrepancy is caused by an abundance of flat-spectrum galaxy cores as yet not included in source population models.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography.

PubMed

Johnson, K P; Adler, F R; Cherry, J L

2000-04-01

Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.

Tests and consequences of disk plus halo models of gamma-ray burst sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, I. A.

1995-01-01

The gamma-ray burst observations made by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and by previous experiments are still consistent with a combined Galactic disk (or Galactic spiral arm) plus extended Galactic halo model. Testable predictions and consequences of the disk plus halo model are discussed here; tests performed on the expanded BATSE database in the future will constrain the allowed model parameters and may eventually rule out the disk plus halo model. Using examples, it is shown that if the halo has an appropriate edge, BATSE will never detect an anisotropic signal from the halo of the Andromeda galaxy. A prediction of the disk plus halo model is that the fraction of the bursts observed to be in the 'disk' population rises as the detector sensitivity improves. A careful reexamination of the numbers of bursts in the two populations for the pre-BATSE databases could rule out this class of models. Similarly, it is predicted that different satellites will observe different relative numbers of bursts in the two classes for any model in which there are two different spatial distribiutions of the sources, or for models in which there is one spatial distribution of the sources that is sampled to different depths for the two classes. An important consequence of the disk plus halo model is that for the birthrate of the halo sources to be small compared to the birthrate of the disk sources, it is necessary for the halo sources to release many orders of magnitude more energy over their bursting lifetime than the disk sources. The halo bursts must also be much more luminous than the disk bursts; if this disk-halo model is correct, it is necessary to explain why the disk sources do not produce halo-type bursts.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Detecting black bear source-sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs.

PubMed

Draheim, Hope M; Moore, Jennifer A; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R; Scribner, Kim T

2016-07-27

Source-sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source-sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source-sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source-sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. © 2016 The Author(s).

Estimation of the sensitive volume for gravitational-wave source populations using weighted Monte Carlo integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Vaibhav

2018-07-01

The population analysis and estimation of merger rates of compact binaries is one of the important topics in gravitational wave astronomy. The primary ingredient in these analyses is the population-averaged sensitive volume. Typically, sensitive volume, of a given search to a given simulated source population, is estimated by drawing signals from the population model and adding them to the detector data as injections. Subsequently injections, which are simulated gravitational waveforms, are searched for by the search pipelines and their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is determined. Sensitive volume is estimated, by using Monte-Carlo (MC) integration, from the total number of injections added to the data, the number of injections that cross a chosen threshold on SNR and the astrophysical volume in which the injections are placed. So far, only fixed population models have been used in the estimation of binary black holes (BBH) merger rates. However, as the scope of population analysis broaden in terms of the methodologies and source properties considered, due to an increase in the number of observed gravitational wave (GW) signals, the procedure will need to be repeated multiple times at a large computational cost. In this letter we address the problem by performing a weighted MC integration. We show how a single set of generic injections can be weighted to estimate the sensitive volume for multiple population models; thereby greatly reducing the computational cost. The weights in this MC integral are the ratios of the output probabilities, determined by the population model and standard cosmology, and the injection probability, determined by the distribution function of the generic injections. Unlike analytical/semi-analytical methods, which usually estimate sensitive volume using single detector sensitivity, the method is accurate within statistical errors, comes at no added cost and requires minimal computational resources.

What are the Starting Points? Evaluating Base-Year Assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Clarke, Leon E.

2012-12-01

A common feature of model inter-comparison efforts is that the base year numbers for important parameters such as population and GDP can differ substantially across models. This paper explores the sources and implications of this variation in Asian countries across the models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Because the models do not all have a common base year, each team was required to provide data for 2005 for comparison purposes. This paper compares the year 2005 information for different models, noting the degree of variation in important parameters, including population, GDP, primary energy, electricity, and CO2 emissions. Itmore » then explores the difference in these key parameters across different sources of base-year information. The analysis confirms that the sources provide different values for many key parameters. This variation across data sources and additional reasons why models might provide different base-year numbers, including differences in regional definitions, differences in model base year, and differences in GDP transformation methodologies, are then discussed in the context of the AME scenarios. Finally, the paper explores the implications of base-year variation on long-term model results.« less

Toward disentangling the effect of hydrologic and nitrogen source changes from 1992 to 2001 on incremental nitrogen yield in the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Md Jahangir; Goodall, Jonathan L.

2012-04-01

The goal of this research was to quantify the relative impact of hydrologic and nitrogen source changes on incremental nitrogen yield in the contiguous United States. Using nitrogen source estimates from various federal data bases, remotely sensed land use data from the National Land Cover Data program, and observed instream loadings from the United States Geological Survey National Stream Quality Accounting Network program, we calibrated and applied the spatially referenced regression model SPARROW to estimate incremental nitrogen yield for the contiguous United States. We ran different model scenarios to separate the effects of changes in source contributions from hydrologic changes for the years 1992 and 2001, assuming that only state conditions changed and that model coefficients describing the stream water-quality response to changes in state conditions remained constant between 1992 and 2001. Model results show a decrease of 8.2% in the median incremental nitrogen yield over the period of analysis with the vast majority of this decrease due to changes in hydrologic conditions rather than decreases in nitrogen sources. For example, when we changed the 1992 version of the model to have nitrogen source data from 2001, the model results showed only a small increase in median incremental nitrogen yield (0.12%). However, when we changed the 1992 version of the model to have hydrologic conditions from 2001, model results showed a decrease of approximately 8.7% in median incremental nitrogen yield. We did, however, find notable differences in incremental yield estimates for different sources of nitrogen after controlling for hydrologic changes, particularly for population related sources. For example, the median incremental yield for population related sources increased by 8.4% after controlling for hydrologic changes. This is in contrast to a 2.8% decrease in population related sources when hydrologic changes are included in the analysis. Likewise we found that median incremental yield from urban watersheds increased by 6.8% after controlling for hydrologic changes—in contrast to the median incremental nitrogen yield from cropland watersheds, which decreased by 2.1% over the same time period. These results suggest that, after accounting for hydrologic changes, population related sources became a more significant contributor of nitrogen yield to streams in the contiguous United States over the period of analysis. However, this study was not able to account for the influence of human management practices such as improvements in wastewater treatment plants or Best Management Practices that likely improved water quality, due to a lack of data for quantifying the impact of these practices for the study area.

SHEDS-PM: A POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PREDICTING DISTRIBUTIONS OF PM EXPOSURE AND DOSE FROM BOTH OUTDOOR AND INDOOR SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has developed a population exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM), called the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. SHEDS-PM uses a probabilistic approach that incorporates both variabi...

Testing for multiple invasion routes and source populations for the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on Guam: implications for pest management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Wood, Dustin A.; Stanford, James W.; Fisher, Robert N.

2014-01-01

The brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) population on the Pacific island of Guam has reached iconic status as one of the most destructive invasive species of modern times, yet no published works have used genetic data to identify a source population. We used DNA sequence data from multiple genetic markers and coalescent-based phylogenetic methods to place the Guam population within the broader phylogeographic context of B. irregularis across its native range and tested whether patterns of genetic variation on the island are consistent with one or multiple introductions from different source populations. We also modeled a series of demographic scenarios that differed in the effective size and duration of a population bottleneck immediately following the invasion on Guam, and measured the fit of these simulations to the observed data using approximate Bayesian computation. Our results exclude the possibility of serial introductions from different source populations, and instead verify a single origin from the Admiralty Archipelago off the north coast of Papua New Guinea. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis thatB. irregularis was accidentally transported to Guam during military relocation efforts at the end of World War II. Demographic model comparisons suggest that multiple snakes were transported to Guam from the source locality, but that fewer than 10 individuals could be responsible for establishing the population. Our results also provide evidence that low genetic diversity stemming from the founder event has not been a hindrance to the ecological success of B. irregularis on Guam, and at the same time offers a unique ‘genetic opening’ to manage snake density using classical biological approaches.

ASSESSING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO MULTIPLE AIR POLLUTANTS USING A MECHANISTIC SOURCE-TO-DOSE MODELING FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

The Modeling Environment for Total Risks studies (MENTOR) system, combined with an extension of the SHEDS (Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation) methodology, provide a mechanistically consistent framework for conducting source-to-dose exposure assessments of multiple pol...

Population and Activity of On-road Vehicles in MOVES2014

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes the sources and derivation for on-road vehicle population and activity information and associated adjustments as stored in the MOVES2014 default databases. Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, the MOVES2014 model, is a set of modeling tools for estimating emiss...

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategies for Controlling Non-Transmissible Infection Outbreaks Using a Large Human Movement Data Set

PubMed Central

Hancock, Penelope A.; Rehman, Yasmin; Hall, Ian M.; Edeghere, Obaghe; Danon, Leon; House, Thomas A.; Keeling, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Prediction and control of the spread of infectious disease in human populations benefits greatly from our growing capacity to quantify human movement behavior. Here we develop a mathematical model for non-transmissible infections contracted from a localized environmental source, informed by a detailed description of movement patterns of the population of Great Britain. The model is applied to outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease, a potentially life-threatening form of pneumonia caused by the bacteria Legionella pneumophilia. We use case-report data from three recent outbreaks that have occurred in Great Britain where the source has already been identified by public health agencies. We first demonstrate that the amount of individual-level heterogeneity incorporated in the movement data greatly influences our ability to predict the source location. The most accurate predictions were obtained using reported travel histories to describe movements of infected individuals, but using detailed simulation models to estimate movement patterns offers an effective fast alternative. Secondly, once the source is identified, we show that our model can be used to accurately determine the population likely to have been exposed to the pathogen, and hence predict the residential locations of infected individuals. The results give rise to an effective control strategy that can be implemented rapidly in response to an outbreak. PMID:25211122

Factors influencing mobile source particulate matter emissions-to-exposure relationships in the Boston urban area.

PubMed

Greco, Susan L; Wilson, Andrew M; Hanna, Steven R; Levy, Jonathan I

2007-11-15

Benefit-cost and regulatory impact analyses often use atmospheric dispersion models with coarse resolution to estimate the benefits of proposed mobile source emission control regulations. This approach may bias health estimates or miss important intra-urban variability for primary air pollutants. In this study, we estimate primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) intake fractions (iF; the fraction of a pollutant emitted from a source that is inhaled by the population) for each of 23 398 road segments in the Boston Metro Core area to evaluate the potential for intra-urban variability in the emissions-to-exposure relationship. We estimate iFs using the CAL3QHCR line source model combined with residential populations within 5000 m of each road segment. The annual average values for the road segments range from 0.8 to 53 per million, with a mean of 12 per million. On average, 46% of the total exposure is realized within 200 m of the road segment, though this varies from 0 to 93% largely due to variable population patterns. Our findings indicate the likelihood of substantial intra-urban variability in mobile source primary PM2.5 iF that accounting for population movement with time, localized meteorological conditions, and street-canyon configurations would likely increase.

Multiscale Spatial Modeling of Human Exposure from Local Sources to Global Intake.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-16

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals, are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea, an innovative multiscale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties are expressed as the evolution of the population intake fraction through inhalation and ingestion as a function of the distance from sources. For substances with atmospheric half-lives longer than a week, less than 20% of the global population intake through inhalation (median of 126 emission scenarios) can occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ∼10 000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route which locations minimize global intakes. Maps of global intake fractions associated with each emission location show clear patterns associated with population and agriculture production densities.

An avoidance behavior model for migrating whale populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buck, John R.; Tyack, Peter L.

2003-04-01

A new model is presented for the avoidance behavior of migrating marine mammals in the presence of a noise stimulus. This model assumes that each whale will adjust its movement pattern near a sound source to maintain its exposure below its own individually specific maximum received sound-pressure level, called its avoidance threshold. The probability distribution function (PDF) of this avoidance threshold across individuals characterizes the migrating population. The avoidance threshold PDF may be estimated by comparing the distribution of migrating whales during playback and control conditions at their closest point of approach to the sound source. The proposed model was applied to the January 1998 experiment which placed a single acoustic source from the U.S. Navy SURTASS-LFA system in the migration corridor of grey whales off the California coast. This analysis found that the median avoidance threshold for this migrating grey whale population was 135 dB, with 90% confidence that the median threshold was within +/-3 dB of this value. This value is less than the 141 dB value for 50% avoidance obtained when the 1984 ``Probability of Avoidance'' model of Malme et al.'s was applied to the same data. [Work supported by ONR.

Humpback whale-generated ambient noise levels provide insight into singers' spatial densities.

PubMed

Seger, Kerri D; Thode, Aaron M; Urbán-R, Jorge; Martínez-Loustalot, Pamela; Jiménez-López, M Esther; López-Arzate, Diana

2016-09-01

Baleen whale vocal activity can be the dominant underwater ambient noise source for certain locations and seasons. Previous wind-driven ambient-noise formulations have been adjusted to model ambient noise levels generated by random distributions of singing humpback whales in ocean waveguides and have been combined to a single model. This theoretical model predicts that changes in ambient noise levels with respect to fractional changes in singer population (defined as the noise "sensitivity") are relatively unaffected by the source level distributions and song spectra of individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). However, the noise "sensitivity" does depend on frequency and on how the singers' spatial density changes with population size. The theoretical model was tested by comparing visual line transect surveys with bottom-mounted passive acoustic data collected during the 2013 and 2014 humpback whale breeding seasons off Los Cabos, Mexico. A generalized linear model (GLM) estimated the noise "sensitivity" across multiple frequency bands. Comparing the GLM estimates with the theoretical predictions suggests that humpback whales tend to maintain relatively constant spacing between one another while singing, but that individual singers either slightly increase their source levels or song duration, or cluster more tightly as the singing population increases.

Analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model with logistic source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Li, Huicong; Tong, Yachun

2017-08-01

In this paper, we are concerned with an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model with logistic source in spatially heterogeneous environment. We first discuss some basic properties of the parabolic system, including the uniform upper bound of solutions and global stability of the endemic equilibrium when spatial environment is homogeneous. Our primary focus is to determine the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria (when exist) if the diffusion (migration) rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. Combined with the results of Li et al. (J Differ Equ 262:885-913, 2017) where the case of linear source is studied, our analysis suggests that varying total population enhances persistence of infectious disease.

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Influence of drift and admixture on population structure of American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the Central Interior Highlands, USA, 50 years after translocation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Emily E.; Kristensen, Thea V.; Wilton, Clay M.; Lyda, Sara B.; Noyce, Karen V.; Holahan, Paula M.; Leslie,, David M.; Beringer, J.; Belant, Jerrold L.; White, D.; Eggert, L.S.

2014-01-01

Bottlenecks, founder events, and genetic drift often result in decreased genetic diversity and increased population differentiation. These events may follow abundance declines due to natural or anthropogenic perturbations, where translocations may be an effective conservation strategy to increase population size. American black bears (Ursus americanus) were nearly extirpated from the Central Interior Highlands, USA by 1920. In an effort to restore bears, 254 individuals were translocated from Minnesota, USA, and Manitoba, Canada, into the Ouachita and Ozark Mountains from 1958 to 1968. Using 15 microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes, we observed contemporary genetic diversity and differentiation between the source and supplemented populations. We inferred four genetic clusters: Source, Ouachitas, Ozarks, and a cluster in Missouri where no individuals were translocated. Coalescent models using approximate Bayesian computation identified an admixture model as having the highest posterior probability (0.942) over models where the translocation was unsuccessful or acted as a founder event. Nuclear genetic diversity was highest in the source (AR = 9.11) and significantly lower in the translocated populations (AR = 7.07-7.34; P = 0.004). The Missouri cluster had the lowest genetic diversity (AR = 5.48) and served as a natural experiment showing the utility of translocations to increase genetic diversity following demographic bottlenecks. Differentiation was greater between the two admixed populations than either compared to the source, suggesting that genetic drift acted strongly over the eight generations since the translocation. The Ouachitas and Missouri were previously hypothesized to be remnant lineages. We observed a pretranslocation remnant signature in Missouri but not in the Ouachitas.

The role of local populations within a landscape context: Defining and classifying sources and sinks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, J.P.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

The interaction of local populations has been the focus of an increasing number of studies in the past 30 years. The study of source-sink dynamics has especially generated much interest. Many of the criteria used to distinguish sources and sinks incorporate the process of apparent survival (i.e., the combined probability of true survival and site fidelity) but not emigration. These criteria implicitly treat emigration as mortality, thus biasing the classification of sources and sinks in a manner that could lead to flawed habitat management. Some of the same criteria require rather restrictive assumptions about population equilibrium that, when violated, can also generate misleading inference. Here, we expand on a criterion (denoted ?contribution? or Cr) that incorporates successful emigration in differentiating sources and sinks and that makes no restrictive assumptions about dispersal or equilibrium processes in populations of interest. The metric Cr is rooted in the theory of matrix population models, yet it also contains clearly specified parameters that have been estimated in previous empirical research. We suggest that estimates of emigration are important for delineating sources and sinks and, more generally, for evaluating how local populations interact to generate overall system dynamics. This suggestion has direct implications for issues such as species conservation and habitat management.

Source apportionment of population representative samples of PM(2.5) in three European cities using structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Ilacqua, Vito; Hänninen, Otto; Saarela, Kristina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Künzli, Nino; Jantunen, Matti

2007-10-01

Apportionment of urban particulate matter (PM) to sources is central for air quality management and efficient reduction of the substantial public health risks associated with fine particles (PM(2.5)). Traffic is an important source combustion particles, but also a significant source of resuspended particles that chemically resemble Earth's crust and that are not affected by development of cleaner motor technologies. A substantial fraction of urban ambient PM originates from long-range transport outside the immediate urban environment including secondary particles formed from gaseous emissions of mainly sulphur, nitrogen oxides and ammonia. Most source apportionment studies are based on small number of fixed monitoring sites and capture well population exposures to regional and long-range transported particles. However, concentrations from local sources are very unevenly distributed and the results from such studies are therefore poorly representative of the actual exposures. The current study uses PM(2.5) data observed at population based random sampled residential locations in Athens, Basle and Helsinki with 17 elemental constituents, selected VOCs (xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, nonane and benzene) and light absorbance (black smoke). The major sources identified across the three cities included crustal, salt, long-range transported inorganic and traffic sources. Traffic was associated separately with source categories with crustal (especially Athens and Helsinki) and long-range transported chemical composition (all cities). Remarkably high fractions of the variability of elemental (R(2)>0.6 except for Ca in Basle 0.38) and chemical concentrations (R(2)>0.5 except benzene in Basle 0.22 and nonane in Athens 0.39) are explained by the source factors of an SEM model. The RAINS model that is currently used as the main tool in developing European air quality management policies seems to capture the local urban fraction (the city delta term) quite well, but underestimates crustal particle levels in the three cities of the current study. Utilizing structural equation modelling parallel with traditional principal component analysis (PCA) provides an objective method to determine the number of factors to be retained in a model and allows for formal hypotheses testing.

Spatial variation in anthropogenic mortality induces a source-sink system in a hunted mesopredator.

PubMed

Minnie, Liaan; Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Kerley, Graham I H

2018-04-01

Lethal carnivore management is a prevailing strategy to reduce livestock predation. Intensity of lethal management varies according to land-use, where carnivores are more intensively hunted on farms relative to reserves. Variations in hunting intensity may result in the formation of a source-sink system where carnivores disperse from high-density to low-density areas. Few studies quantify dispersal between supposed sources and sinks-a fundamental requirement for source-sink systems. We used the black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) as a model to determine if heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality induces a source-sink system. We analysed 12 microsatellite loci from 554 individuals from lightly hunted and previously unhunted reserves, as well as heavily hunted livestock- and game farms. Bayesian genotype assignment showed that jackal populations displayed a hierarchical population structure. We identified two genetically distinct populations at the regional level and nine distinct subpopulations at the local level, with each cluster corresponding to distinct land-use types separated by various dispersal barriers. Migration, estimated using Bayesian multilocus genotyping, between reserves and farms was asymmetric and heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality induced source-sink dynamics via compensatory immigration. Additionally some heavily hunted populations also acted as source populations, exporting individuals to other heavily hunted populations. This indicates that heterogeneous anthropogenic mortality results in the formation of a complex series of interconnected sources and sinks. Thus, lethal management of mesopredators may not be an effective long-term strategy in reducing livestock predation, as dispersal and, more importantly, compensatory immigration may continue to affect population reduction efforts as long as dispersal from other areas persists.

Identifying PM2.5 and PM0.1 sources for epidemiological studies in California.

PubMed

Hu, Jianlin; Zhang, Hongliang; Chen, Shuhua; Ying, Qi; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Vandenberghe, Francois; Kleeman, Michael J

2014-05-06

The University of California-Davis_Primary (UCD_P) model was applied to simultaneously track ∼ 900 source contributions to primary particulate matter (PM) in California for seven continuous years (January 1st, 2000 to December 31st, 2006). Predicted source contributions to primary PM2.5 mass, PM1.8 elemental carbon (EC), PM1.8 organic carbon (OC), PM0.1 EC, and PM0.1 OC were in general agreement with the results from previous source apportionment studies using receptor-based techniques. All sources were further subjected to a constraint check based on model performance for PM trace elemental composition. A total of 151 PM2.5 sources and 71 PM0.1 sources contained PM elements that were predicted at concentrations in general agreement with measured values at nearby monitoring sites. Significant spatial heterogeneity was predicted among the 151 PM2.5 and 71 PM0.1 source concentrations, and significantly different seasonal profiles were predicted for PM2.5 and PM0.1 in central California vs southern California. Population-weighted concentrations of PM emitted from various sources calculated using the UCD_P model spatial information differed from the central monitor estimates by up to 77% for primary PM2.5 mass and 148% for PM2.5 EC because the central monitor concentration is not representative of exposure for nearby population. The results from the UCD_P model provide enhanced source apportionment information for epidemiological studies to examine the relationship between health effects and concentrations of primary PM from individual sources.

X-ray emission from galaxies - The distribution of low-luminosity X-ray sources in the Galactic Centre region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heard, Victoria; Warwick, Robert

2012-09-01

We report a study of the extended X-ray emission observed in the Galactic Centre (GC) region based on archival XMM-Newton data. The GC diffuse emission can be decomposed into three distinct components: the emission from low-luminosity point sources; the fluorescence of (and reflection from) dense molecular material; and soft (kT ~1 keV), diffuse thermal plasma emission most likely energised by supernova explosions. Here, we examine the emission due to unresolved point sources. We show that this source component accounts for the bulk of the 6.7-keV and 6.9-keV line emission. We fit the surface brightness distribution evident in these lines with an empirical 2-d model, which we then compare with a prediction derived from a 3-d mass model for the old stellar population in the GC region. We find that the X-ray surface brightness declines more rapidly with angular offset from Sgr A* than the mass-model prediction. One interpretation is that the X-ray luminosity per solar mass characterising the GC source population is increasing towards the GC. Alternatively, some refinement of the mass-distribution within the nuclear stellar disc may be required. The unresolved X-ray source population is most likely dominated by magnetic CVs. We use the X-ray observations to set constraints on the number density of such sources in the GC region. Our analysis does not support the premise that the GC is pervaded by very hot (~ 7.5 keV) thermal plasma, which is truly diffuse in nature.

Modelling recolonization of second-growth forest stands by the north american red squirrel Tamiasciurus hudsonicus.

PubMed

Nyquist, B; Tyson, R; Larsen, K

2007-05-01

In this paper, we present a model for source-sink population dynamics where the locations of source and sink habitats change over time. We do this in the context of the population dynamics of the North American red squirrel, Tamiasciurus hudsonicus, within a forest environment subject to harvesting and regrowth. Harvested patches of forest are initially sinks, then eventually become source habitat again as the forest regrows. At the same time, each harvested patch is gradually recolonized by squirrels from other forest patches. We are interested in the interaction of forest harvesting dynamics with squirrel population dynamics. This depends on the harvesting schedule, and on the choices squirrels make when deciding whether to settle in a mature forest patch or in a recently harvested patch. We find that the time it takes for a second-growth forest patch to be recolonized at the mature forest level is longer than the time required for the habitat quality to be restored to the mature forest level. We also notice that recolonization pressure decreases squirrel populations in neighbouring patches. The connectivity between forest patches and the cutting schedule used also affect the time course of recolonization and steady-state population levels.

Computational Modeling of Single Neuron Extracellular Electric Potentials and Network Local Field Potentials using LFPsim.

PubMed

Parasuram, Harilal; Nair, Bipin; D'Angelo, Egidio; Hines, Michael; Naldi, Giovanni; Diwakar, Shyam

2016-01-01

Local Field Potentials (LFPs) are population signals generated by complex spatiotemporal interaction of current sources and dipoles. Mathematical computations of LFPs allow the study of circuit functions and dysfunctions via simulations. This paper introduces LFPsim, a NEURON-based tool for computing population LFP activity and single neuron extracellular potentials. LFPsim was developed to be used on existing cable compartmental neuron and network models. Point source, line source, and RC based filter approximations can be used to compute extracellular activity. As a demonstration of efficient implementation, we showcase LFPs from mathematical models of electrotonically compact cerebellum granule neurons and morphologically complex neurons of the neocortical column. LFPsim reproduced neocortical LFP at 8, 32, and 56 Hz via current injection, in vitro post-synaptic N2a, N2b waves and in vivo T-C waves in cerebellum granular layer. LFPsim also includes a simulation of multi-electrode array of LFPs in network populations to aid computational inference between biophysical activity in neural networks and corresponding multi-unit activity resulting in extracellular and evoked LFP signals.

Mapping and Eradication Prioritization Modeling of Red Sesbania ( Sesbania punicea) Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robison, Ramona; Barve, Nita; Owens, Christina; Skurka Darin, Gina; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

2013-07-01

Red sesbania is an invasive South American shrub that has rapidly expanded its range along California waterways, emphasizing the need to prioritize eradication sites at a regional scale. To accomplish this, we updated baseline location data in summer 2010 using field surveys throughout the state. We collected relevant GPS attribute data for GIS analysis and eradication prioritization modeling. The regional survey identified upstream and downstream extents for each watershed, as well as outliers in urban areas. We employed the Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool (WHIPPET) to prioritize red sesbania sites for eradication, and revised the WHIPPET model to consider directional propagule flow of a riparian species. WHIPPET prioritized small populations isolated from larger infestations, as well as outliers in residential areas. When we compared five experts' assessments of a stratified sample of the red sesbania populations to WHIPPET's prioritization results, there was a positive, but nonsignificant, correlation. The combination of WHIPPET and independent expert opinion suggests that small, isolated populations and upstream source populations should be the primary targets for eradication. Particular attention should be paid to these small populations in watersheds where red sesbania is a new introduction. The use of this model in conjunction with evaluation by the land manager may help prevent the establishment of new seed sources and protect uninfested riparian corridors and their adjacent watersheds.

Mapping and eradication prioritization modeling of red sesbania (Sesbania punicea) populations.

PubMed

Robison, Ramona; Barve, Nita; Owens, Christina; Skurka Darin, Gina; DiTomaso, Joseph M

2013-07-01

Red sesbania is an invasive South American shrub that has rapidly expanded its range along California waterways, emphasizing the need to prioritize eradication sites at a regional scale. To accomplish this, we updated baseline location data in summer 2010 using field surveys throughout the state. We collected relevant GPS attribute data for GIS analysis and eradication prioritization modeling. The regional survey identified upstream and downstream extents for each watershed, as well as outliers in urban areas. We employed the Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool (WHIPPET) to prioritize red sesbania sites for eradication, and revised the WHIPPET model to consider directional propagule flow of a riparian species. WHIPPET prioritized small populations isolated from larger infestations, as well as outliers in residential areas. When we compared five experts' assessments of a stratified sample of the red sesbania populations to WHIPPET's prioritization results, there was a positive, but nonsignificant, correlation. The combination of WHIPPET and independent expert opinion suggests that small, isolated populations and upstream source populations should be the primary targets for eradication. Particular attention should be paid to these small populations in watersheds where red sesbania is a new introduction. The use of this model in conjunction with evaluation by the land manager may help prevent the establishment of new seed sources and protect uninfested riparian corridors and their adjacent watersheds.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanda, L.L.; Fuller, T.K.; Sievert, P.R.; Kellogg, R.L.

2009-01-01

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Can the source–sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modelling test

PubMed Central

Hardy, Sarah M.; Smith, Craig R.; Thurnherr, Andreas M.

2015-01-01

Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval ‘refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions. PMID:25948686

Population array and agricultural data arrays for the Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, K.W.; Duffy, S.; Kowalewsky, K.

1998-07-01

To quantify or estimate the environmental and radiological impacts from man-made sources of radioactive effluents, certain dose assessment procedures were developed by various government and regulatory agencies. Some of these procedures encourage the use of computer simulations (models) to calculate air dispersion, environmental transport, and subsequent human exposure to radioactivity. Such assessment procedures are frequently used to demonstrate compliance with Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) regulations. Knowledge of the density and distribution of the population surrounding a source is an essential component in assessing the impacts from radioactive effluents. Also, as an aid to calculatingmore » the dose to a given population, agricultural data relevant to the dose assessment procedure (or computer model) are often required. This report provides such population and agricultural data for the area surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory.« less

Application of Johnson et al.'s speciation threshold model to apparent colonization times of island biotas.

PubMed

Ricklefs, Robert E; Bermingham, Eldredge

2004-08-01

Understanding patterns of diversity can be furthered by analysis of the dynamics of colonization, speciation, and extinction on islands using historical information provided by molecular phylogeography. The land birds of the Lesser Antilles are one of the most thoroughly described regional faunas in this context. In an analysis of colonization times, Ricklefs and Bermingham (2001) found that the cumulative distribution of lineages with respect to increasing time since colonization exhibits a striking change in slope at a genetic distance of about 2% mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence (about one million years). They further showed how this heterogeneity could be explained by either an abrupt increase in colonization rates or a mass extinction event. Cherry et al. (2002), referring to a model developed by Johnson et al. (2000), argued instead that the pattern resulted from a speciation threshold for reproductive isolation of island populations from their continental source populations. Prior to this threshold, genetic divergence is slowed by migration from the source, and species of varying age accumulate at a low genetic distance. After the threshold is reached, source and island populations diverge more rapidly, creating heterogeneity in the distribution of apparent ages of island taxa. We simulated of Johnson et al.'s speciation-threshold model, incorporating genetic divergence at rate k and fixation at rate M of genes that have migrated between the source and the island population. Fixation resets the divergence clock to zero. The speciation-threshold model fits the distribution of divergence times of Lesser Antillean birds well with biologically plausible parameter estimates. Application of the model to the Hawaiian avifauna, which does not exhibit marked heterogeneity of genetic divergence, and the West Indian herpetofauna, which does, required unreasonably high migration-fixation rates, several orders of magnitude greater than the colonization rate. However, the plausibility of the speciation-divergence model for Lesser Antillean birds emphasizes the importance of further investigation of historical biogeography on a regional scale for whole biotas, as well as the migration of genes between populations on long time scales and the achievement of reproductive isolation.

Origins of extrinsic variability in eukaryotic gene expression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volfson, Dmitri; Marciniak, Jennifer; Blake, William J.; Ostroff, Natalie; Tsimring, Lev S.; Hasty, Jeff

2006-02-01

Variable gene expression within a clonal population of cells has been implicated in a number of important processes including mutation and evolution, determination of cell fates and the development of genetic disease. Recent studies have demonstrated that a significant component of expression variability arises from extrinsic factors thought to influence multiple genes simultaneously, yet the biological origins of this extrinsic variability have received little attention. Here we combine computational modelling with fluorescence data generated from multiple promoter-gene inserts in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to identify two major sources of extrinsic variability. One unavoidable source arising from the coupling of gene expression with population dynamics leads to a ubiquitous lower limit for expression variability. A second source, which is modelled as originating from a common upstream transcription factor, exemplifies how regulatory networks can convert noise in upstream regulator expression into extrinsic noise at the output of a target gene. Our results highlight the importance of the interplay of gene regulatory networks with population heterogeneity for understanding the origins of cellular diversity.

Origins of extrinsic variability in eukaryotic gene expression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volfson, Dmitri; Marciniak, Jennifer; Blake, William J.; Ostroff, Natalie; Tsimring, Lev S.; Hasty, Jeff

2006-03-01

Variable gene expression within a clonal population of cells has been implicated in a number of important processes including mutation and evolution, determination of cell fates and the development of genetic disease. Recent studies have demonstrated that a significant component of expression variability arises from extrinsic factors thought to influence multiple genes in concert, yet the biological origins of this extrinsic variability have received little attention. Here we combine computational modeling with fluorescence data generated from multiple promoter-gene inserts in Saccharomyces cerevisiae to identify two major sources of extrinsic variability. One unavoidable source arising from the coupling of gene expression with population dynamics leads to a ubiquitous noise floor in expression variability. A second source which is modeled as originating from a common upstream transcription factor exemplifies how regulatory networks can convert noise in upstream regulator expression into extrinsic noise at the output of a target gene. Our results highlight the importance of the interplay of gene regulatory networks with population heterogeneity for understanding the origins of cellular diversity.

Utility of Capture-Recapture Methodology to Estimate Prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects Among Adolescents in 11 New York State Counties: 2008 to 2010.

PubMed

Akkaya-Hocagil, Tugba; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Sommerhalter, Kristin; McGarry, Claire; Van Zutphen, Alissa

2017-11-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects in the United States, and the population of individuals living with CHDs is growing. Though CHD prevalence in infancy has been well characterized, better prevalence estimates among children and adolescents in the United States are still needed. We used capture-recapture methods to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents residing in 11 New York counties. The three data sources used for analysis included Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) hospital inpatient records, SPARCS outpatient records, and medical records provided by seven pediatric congenital cardiac clinics from 2008 to 2010. Bayesian log-linear models were fit using the R package Conting to account for dataset dependencies and heterogeneous catchability. A total of 2537 adolescent CHD cases were captured in our three data sources. Forty-four cases were identified in all data sources, 283 cases were identified in two of three data sources, and 2210 cases were identified in a single data source. The final model yielded an estimated total adolescent CHD population of 3845, indicating that 66% of the cases in the catchment area were identified in the case-identifying data sources. Based on 2010 Census estimates, we estimated adolescent CHD prevalence as 6.4 CHD cases per 1000 adolescents (95% confidence interval: 6.2-6.6). We used capture-recapture methodology with a population-based surveillance system in New York to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents. Future research incorporating additional data sources may improve prevalence estimates in this population. Birth Defects Research 109:1423-1429, 2017.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population variability in animal health: Influence on dose-exposure-response relationships: Part II: Modelling and simulation.

PubMed

Martinez, Marilyn N; Gehring, Ronette; Mochel, Jonathan P; Pade, Devendra; Pelligand, Ludovic

2018-05-28

During the 2017 Biennial meeting, the American Academy of Veterinary Pharmacology and Therapeutics hosted a 1-day session on the influence of population variability on dose-exposure-response relationships. In Part I, we highlighted some of the sources of population variability. Part II provides a summary of discussions on modelling and simulation tools that utilize existing pharmacokinetic data, can integrate drug physicochemical characteristics with species physiological characteristics and dosing information or that combine observed with predicted and in vitro information to explore and describe sources of variability that may influence the safe and effective use of veterinary pharmaceuticals. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Source characterization and exposure modeling of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H.; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua (Tina); Wu, Jun

2018-03-01

Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

Source Characterization and Exposure Modeling of Gas-Phase Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) Concentrations in Southern California.

PubMed

Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua Tina; Wu, Jun

2018-03-01

Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R 2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

A computer simulation model of Wolbachia invasion for disease vector population modification.

PubMed

Guevara-Souza, Mauricio; Vallejo, Edgar E

2015-10-05

Wolbachia invasion has been proved to be a promising alternative for controlling vector-borne diseases, particularly Dengue fever. Creating computer models that can provide insight into how vector population modification can be achieved under different conditions would be most valuable for assessing the efficacy of control strategies for this disease. In this paper, we present a computer model that simulates the behavior of native mosquito populations after the introduction of mosquitoes infected with the Wolbachia bacteria. We studied how different factors such as fecundity, fitness cost of infection, migration rates, number of populations, population size, and number of introduced infected mosquitoes affect the spread of the Wolbachia bacteria among native mosquito populations. Two main scenarios of the island model are presented in this paper, with infected mosquitoes introduced into the largest source population and peripheral populations. Overall, the results are promising; Wolbachia infection spreads among native populations and the computer model is capable of reproducing the results obtained by mathematical models and field experiments. Computer models can be very useful for gaining insight into how Wolbachia invasion works and are a promising alternative for complementing experimental and mathematical approaches for vector-borne disease control.

The distribution of Enceladus water-group neutrals in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Howard T.; Richardson, John D.

2017-10-01

Saturn’s magnetosphere is unique in that the plumes from the small icy moon, Enceladus, serve at the primary source for heavy particles in Saturn’s magnetosphere. The resulting co-orbiting neutral particles interact with ions, electrons, photons and other neutral particles to generate separate H2O, OH and O tori. Characterization of these toroidal distributions is essential for understanding Saturn magnetospheric sources, composition and dynamics. Unfortunately, limited direct observations of these features are available so modeling is required. A significant modeling challenge involves ensuring that either the plasma and neutral particle populations are not simply input conditions but can provide feedback to each population (i.e. are self-consistent). Jurac and Richardson (2005) executed such a self-consistent model however this research was performed prior to the return of Cassini data. In a similar fashion, we have coupled a 3-D neutral particle model (Smith et al. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010) with a plasma transport model (Richardson 1998; Richardson & Jurac 2004) to develop a self-consistent model which is constrained by all available Cassini observations and current findings on Saturn’s magnetosphere and the Enceladus plume source resulting in much more accurate neutral particle distributions. Here a new self-consistent model of the distribution of the Enceladus-generated neutral tori that is validated by all available observations. We also discuss the implications for source rate and variability.

Description of a New Predictive Modeling Approach That Correlates the Risk and Associated Cost of Well-Defined Diabetes-Related Complications With Changes in Glycated Hemoglobin (HbA1c)

PubMed Central

Fortwaengler, Kurt; Parkin, Christopher G.; Neeser, Kurt; Neumann, Monika; Mast, Oliver

2017-01-01

The modeling approach described here is designed to support the development of spreadsheet-based simple predictive models. It is based on 3 pillars: association of the complications with HbA1c changes, incidence of the complications, and average cost per event of the complication. For each pillar, the goal of the analysis was (1) to find results for a large diversity of populations with a focus on countries/regions, diabetes type, age, diabetes duration, baseline HbA1c value, and gender; (2) to assess the range of incidences and associations previously reported. Unlike simple predictive models, which mostly are based on only 1 source of information for each of the pillars, we conducted a comprehensive, systematic literature review. Each source found was thoroughly reviewed and only sources meeting quality expectations were considered. The approach allows avoidance of unintended use of extreme data. The user can utilize (1) one of the found sources, (2) the found range as validation for the found figures, or (3) the average of all found publications for an expedited estimate. The modeling approach is intended for use in average insulin-treated diabetes populations in which the baseline HbA1c values are within an average range (6.5% to 11.5%); it is not intended for use in individuals or unique diabetes populations (eg, gestational diabetes). Because the modeling approach only considers diabetes-related complications that are positively associated with HbA1c decreases, the costs of negatively associated complications (eg, severe hypoglycemic events) must be calculated separately. PMID:27510441

Sources, sinks, and spatial ecology of cotton mice in longleaf pine stands undergoing restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharp, N.W.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

2009-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate studya replicated, manipulative experimentsought the most economically and ecologically efficient way to restore the nation's fire-maintained ecosystems. As part of this study, we conducted a 3-year markrecapture study, comprising 105,000 trap-nights, to assess demographic responses of cotton mice (Peromyscus gossypinus) to Fire and Fire Surrogate treatments at the Gulf Coastal Plain site, where longleaf pine was the ecosystem to be restored. We compared competing models to evaluate restoration effects on variation in apparent survival and recruitment over time, space, and treatment, and incorporated measures of available source habitat for cotton mice with reverse-time modeling to infer immigration from outside the study area. The top-ranked survival model contained only variation over time, but the closely ranked 2nd and 3rd models included variation over space and treatment, respectively. The top 4 recruitment models all included effects for availability of source habitat and treatments. Burning appeared to degrade habitat quality for cotton mice, showing demographic characteristics of a sink, but treatments combining fire with thinning of trees or application of herbicide to the understory appeared to improve habitat quality, possibly creating sources. Bottomland hardwoods outside the study also acted as sources by providing immigrants to experimental units. Models suggested that population dynamics operated over multiple spatial scales. Treatments applied to 15-ha stands probably only caused local variation in vital rates within the larger population. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Broadband Spectral Modeling of the Extreme Gigahertz-peaked Spectrum Radio Source PKS B0008-421

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callingham, J. R.; Gaensler, B. M.; Ekers, R. D.; Tingay, S. J.; Wayth, R. B.; Morgan, J.; Bernardi, G.; Bell, M. E.; Bhat, R.; Bowman, J. D.; Briggs, F.; Cappallo, R. J.; Deshpande, A. A.; Ewall-Wice, A.; Feng, L.; Greenhill, L. J.; Hazelton, B. J.; Hindson, L.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Jacobs, D. C.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kaplan, D. L.; Kudrayvtseva, N.; Lenc, E.; Lonsdale, C. J.; McKinley, B.; McWhirter, S. R.; Mitchell, D. A.; Morales, M. F.; Morgan, E.; Oberoi, D.; Offringa, A. R.; Ord, S. M.; Pindor, B.; Prabu, T.; Procopio, P.; Riding, J.; Srivani, K. S.; Subrahmanyan, R.; Udaya Shankar, N.; Webster, R. L.; Williams, A.; Williams, C. L.

2015-08-01

We present broadband observations and spectral modeling of PKS B0008-421 and identify it as an extreme gigahertz-peaked spectrum (GPS) source. PKS B0008-421 is characterized by the steepest known spectral slope below the turnover, close to the theoretical limit of synchrotron self-absorption, and the smallest known spectral width of any GPS source. Spectral coverage of the source spans from 0.118 to 22 GHz, which includes data from the Murchison Widefield Array and the wide bandpass receivers on the Australia Telescope Compact Array. We have implemented a Bayesian inference model fitting routine to fit the data with internal free-free absorption (FFA), single- and double-component FFA in an external homogeneous medium, FFA in an external inhomogeneous medium, or single- and double-component synchrotron self-absorption models, all with and without a high-frequency exponential break. We find that without the inclusion of a high-frequency break these models cannot accurately fit the data, with significant deviations above and below the peak in the radio spectrum. The addition of a high-frequency break provides acceptable spectral fits for the inhomogeneous FFA and double-component synchrotron self-absorption models, with the inhomogeneous FFA model statistically favored. The requirement of a high-frequency spectral break implies that the source has ceased injecting fresh particles. Additional support for the inhomogeneous FFA model as being responsible for the turnover in the spectrum is given by the consistency between the physical parameters derived from the model fit and the implications of the exponential spectral break, such as the necessity of the source being surrounded by a dense ambient medium to maintain the peak frequency near the gigahertz region. This implies that PKS B0008-421 should display an internal H i column density greater than 1020 cm-2. The discovery of PKS B0008-421 suggests that the next generation of low radio frequency surveys could reveal a large population of GPS sources that have ceased activity, and that a portion of the ultra-steep-spectrum source population could be composed of these GPS sources in a relic phase.

Development of a Web-Accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service—Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo): Study Protocol

PubMed Central

Foster, Gary; Navarro-Ruan, Tamara; McEneny-King, Alanna; Edginton, Andrea N; Thabane, Lehana

2016-01-01

Background Individual pharmacokinetic assessment is a critical component of tailored prophylaxis for hemophilia patients. Population pharmacokinetics allows using individual sparse data, thus simplifying individual pharmacokinetic studies. Implementing population pharmacokinetics capacity for the hemophilia community is beyond individual reach and requires a system effort. Objective The Web-Accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service—Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo) project aims to assemble a database of patient pharmacokinetic data for all existing factor concentrates, develop and validate population pharmacokinetics models, and integrate these models within a Web-based calculator for individualized pharmacokinetic estimation in patients at participating treatment centers. Methods Individual pharmacokinetic studies on factor VIII and IX concentrates will be sourced from pharmaceutical companies and independent investigators. All factor concentrate manufacturers, hemophilia treatment centers (HTCs), and independent investigators (identified via a systematic review of the literature) having on file pharmacokinetic data and willing to contribute full or sparse pharmacokinetic data will be eligible for participation. Multicompartmental modeling will be performed using a mixed-model approach for derivation and Bayesian forecasting for estimation of individual sparse data. NONMEM (ICON Development Solutions) will be used as modeling software. Results The WAPPS-Hemo research network has been launched and is currently joined by 30 HTCs from across the world. We have gathered dense individual pharmacokinetic data on 878 subjects, including several replicates, on 21 different molecules from 17 different sources. We have collected sparse individual pharmacokinetic data on 289 subjects from the participating centers through the testing phase of the WAPPS-Hemo Web interface. We have developed prototypal population pharmacokinetics models for 11 molecules. The WAPPS-Hemo website (available at www.wapps-hemo.org, version 2.4), with core functionalities allowing hemophilia treaters to obtain individual pharmacokinetic estimates on sparse data points after 1 or more infusions of a factor concentrate, was launched for use within the research network in July 2015. Conclusions The WAPPS-Hemo project and research network aims to make it easier to perform individual pharmacokinetic assessments on a reduced number of plasma samples by adoption of a population pharmacokinetics approach. The project will also gather data to substantially enhance the current knowledge about factor concentrate pharmacokinetics and sources of its variability in target populations. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02061072; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02061072 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6mRK9bKP6) PMID:27977390

Clonal analysis of synovial fluid stem cells to characterize and identify stable mesenchymal stromal cell/mesenchymal progenitor cell phenotypes in a porcine model: a cell source with enhanced commitment to the chondrogenic lineage.

PubMed

Ando, Wataru; Kutcher, Josh J; Krawetz, Roman; Sen, Arindom; Nakamura, Norimasa; Frank, Cyril B; Hart, David A

2014-06-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that porcine synovial membrane stem cells can adhere to a cartilage defect in vivo through the use of a tissue-engineered construct approach. To optimize this model, we wanted to compare effectiveness of tissue sources to determine whether porcine synovial fluid, synovial membrane, bone marrow and skin sources replicate our understanding of synovial fluid mesenchymal stromal cells or mesenchymal progenitor cells from humans both at the population level and the single-cell level. Synovial fluid clones were subsequently isolated and characterized to identify cells with a highly characterized optimal phenotype. The chondrogenic, osteogenic and adipogenic potentials were assessed in vitro for skin, bone marrow, adipose, synovial fluid and synovial membrane-derived stem cells. Synovial fluid cells then underwent limiting dilution analysis to isolate single clonal populations. These clonal populations were assessed for proliferative and differentiation potential by use of standardized protocols. Porcine-derived cells demonstrated the same relationship between cell sources as that demonstrated previously for humans, suggesting that the pig may be an ideal preclinical animal model. Synovial fluid cells demonstrated the highest chondrogenic potential that was further characterized, demonstrating the existence of a unique clonal phenotype with enhanced chondrogenic potential. Porcine stem cells demonstrate characteristics similar to those in human-derived mesenchymal stromal cells from the same sources. Synovial fluid-derived stem cells contain an inherent phenotype that may be optimal for cartilage repair. This must be more fully investigated for future use in the in vivo tissue-engineered construct approach in this physiologically relevant preclinical porcine model. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderlin, J.S.; Waser, P.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Modeling population exposures to outdoor sources of hazardous air pollutants.

PubMed

Ozkaynak, Halûk; Palma, Ted; Touma, Jawad S; Thurman, James

2008-01-01

Accurate assessment of human exposures is an important part of environmental health effects research. However, most air pollution epidemiology studies rely upon imperfect surrogates of personal exposures, such as information based on available central-site outdoor concentration monitoring or modeling data. In this paper, we examine the limitations of using outdoor concentration predictions instead of modeled personal exposures for over 30 gaseous and particulate hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in the US. The analysis uses the results from an air quality dispersion model (the ASPEN or Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide model) and an inhalation exposure model (the HAPEM or Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model, Version 5), applied by the US. Environmental protection Agency during the 1999 National Air Toxic Assessment (NATA) in the US. Our results show that the total predicted chronic exposure concentrations of outdoor HAPs from all sources are lower than the modeled ambient concentrations by about 20% on average for most gaseous HAPs and by about 60% on average for most particulate HAPs (mainly, due to the exclusion of indoor sources from our modeling analysis and lower infiltration of particles indoors). On the other hand, the HAPEM/ASPEN concentration ratio averages for onroad mobile source exposures were found to be greater than 1 (around 1.20) for most mobile-source related HAPs (e.g. 1, 3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, benzene, formaldehyde) reflecting the importance of near-roadway and commuting environments on personal exposures to HAPs. The distribution of the ratios of personal to ambient concentrations was found to be skewed for a number of the VOCs and reactive HAPs associated with major source emissions, indicating the importance of personal mobility factors. We conclude that the increase in personal exposures from the corresponding predicted ambient levels tends to occur near locations where there are either major emission sources of HAPs or when individuals are exposed to either on- or nonroad sources of HAPs during their daily activities. These findings underscore the importance of applying exposure-modeling methods, which incorporate information on time-activity, commuting, and exposure factors data, for the purposes of assigning exposures in air pollution health studies.

Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

2016-04-01

Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling process, (3) deriving and using informative priors in sediment fingerprinting context and (4) transparency of the process and replication of model results by other users.

Dynamical model for the toroidal sporadic meteors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pokorný, Petr; Vokrouhlický, David; Nesvorný, David

More than a decade of radar operations by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar have allowed both young and moderately old streams to be distinguished from the dispersed sporadic background component. The latter has been categorized according to broad radiant regions visible to Earth-based observers into three broad classes: the helion and anti-helion source, the north and south apex sources, and the north and south toroidal sources (and a related arc structure). The first two are populated mainly by dust released from Jupiter-family comets and new comets. Proper modeling of the toroidal sources has not to date been accomplished. Here, wemore » develop a steady-state model for the toroidal source of the sporadic meteoroid complex, compare our model with the available radar measurements, and investigate a contribution of dust particles from our model to the whole population of sporadic meteoroids. We find that the long-term stable part of the toroidal particles is mainly fed by dust released by Halley type (long period) comets (HTCs). Our synthetic model reproduces most of the observed features of the toroidal particles, including the most troublesome low-eccentricity component, which is due to a combination of two effects: particles' ability to decouple from Jupiter and circularize by the Poynting-Robertson effect, and large collision probability for orbits similar to that of the Earth. Our calibrated model also allows us to estimate the total mass of the HTC-released dust in space and check the flux necessary to maintain the cloud in a steady state.« less

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

2015-01-01

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363

Non-thermal O/1D/ produced by dissociative recombination of O2/+/ - A theoretical model and observational results. [in earth atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, G. A.; Abreu, V. J.; Hays, P. B.

1981-01-01

Thermal and nonthermal O(1D) number density profiles are calculated. The two populations are assumed to be coupled by a thermalization cross-section which determines the loss and production in the nonthermal and thermal populations, respectively. The sources, sinks and transport of the two populations are used to model volume emission rate profiles at 6300 A. The 6300 A brightness measured by the Visible Airglow Experiment is then used to establish the presence of the nonthermal population and to determine the thermalization cross-section.

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Van Dyke, J U; Thompson, Michael B

2017-12-01

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life-history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar-sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life-history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life-history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion

PubMed Central

Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C.P.; Friesen, Marcia R.; McLeod, Robert D.; Mukhi, Shamir N.

2011-01-01

This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level. PMID:23569606

Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D; Mukhi, Shamir N

2011-01-01

This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level.

Mathematical modeling of systemic factors determining the risk of deterioration of drinking water supply and development of allergic diseases of population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bespalov, Yurii G.; Nosov, Konstantin V.; Vysotska, Olena V.; Porvan, Andrii P.; Omiotek, Zbigniew; Burlibay, Aron; Assembay, Azat; Szatkowska, Małgorzata

2017-08-01

This study aims at mathematical modeling of systemic factors threatening the sanitary and hygienic state of sources of water supply. It is well-known, that this state affects health of population consuming water from different water sources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers). In particular, water quality problem may cause allergic reactions that are the important problem of health care. In the paper, the authors present the mathematical model, that enables on the basis of observations of a natural system to predict the system's behavior and determine the risks related to deterioration of drinking water resources. As a case study, we uses supply of drinking water from Lake Sevan, but the approach developed in the study can be applied to wide area of adjacent problems.

On the Spatially Resolved Star Formation History in M51. II. X-Ray Binary Population Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmer, B. D.; Eufrasio, R. T.; Markwardt, L.; Zezas, A.; Basu-Zych, A.; Fragos, T.; Hornschemeier, A. E.; Ptak, A.; Tzanavaris, P.; Yukita, M.

2017-12-01

We present a new technique for empirically calibrating how the X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of X-ray binary (XRB) populations evolves following a star formation event. We first utilize detailed stellar population synthesis modeling of far-UV-to-far-IR photometry of the nearby face-on spiral galaxy M51 to construct maps of the star formation histories (SFHs) on subgalactic (≈400 pc) scales. Next, we use the ≈850 ks cumulative Chandra exposure of M51 to identify and isolate 2-7 keV detected point sources within the galaxy, and we use our SFH maps to recover the local properties of the stellar populations in which each X-ray source is located. We then divide the galaxy into various subregions based on their SFH properties (e.g., star formation rate (SFR) per stellar mass ({M}\\star ) and mass-weighted stellar age) and group the X-ray point sources according to the characteristics of the regions in which they are found. Finally, we construct and fit a parameterized XLF model that quantifies how the XLF shape and normalization evolves as a function of the XRB population age Our best-fit model indicates that the XRB XLF per unit stellar mass declines in normalization, by ˜3-3.5 dex, and steepens in slope from ≈10 Myr to ≈10 Gyr. We find that our technique recovers results from past studies of how XRB XLFs and XRB luminosity scaling relations vary with age and provides a self-consistent picture for how XRB XLFs evolve with age.

The [O III] Profiles of Infrared-selected Active Galactic Nuclei: More Powerful Outflows in the Obscured Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiPompeo, M. A.; Hickox, R. C.; Carroll, C. M.; Runnoe, J. C.; Mullaney, J. R.; Fischer, T. C.

2018-03-01

We explore the kinematics of ionized gas via the [O III] λ5007 emission lines in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected on the basis of their mid-infrared (IR) emission, and split into obscured and unobscured populations based on their optical‑IR colors. After correcting for differences in redshift distributions, we provide composite spectra of spectroscopically and photometrically defined obscured/Type 2 and unobscured/Type 1 AGNs from 3500 to 7000 Å. The IR-selected obscured sources contain a mixture of narrow-lined Type 2 AGNs and intermediate sources that have broad Hα emission and significantly narrower Hβ. Using both [O III] luminosities and AGN luminosities derived from optical‑IR spectral energy distribution fitting, we find evidence for enhanced large-scale obscuration in the obscured sources. In matched bins of luminosity we find that the obscured population typically has broader, more blueshifted [O III] emission than in the unobscured sample, suggestive of more powerful AGN-driven outflows. This trend is not seen in spectroscopically classified samples, and is unlikely to be entirely explained by orientation effects. In addition, outflow velocities increase from small to moderate AGN E(B ‑ V) values, before flattening out (as traced by FWHM) and even decreasing (as traced by blueshift). While difficult to fully interpret in a single physical model, due to both the averaging over populations and the spatially averaged spectra, these results agree with previous findings that simple geometric unification models are insufficient for the IR-selected AGN population, and may fit into an evolutionary model for obscured and unobscured AGNs.

A Model Assessing Relevant Factors in Building Minority Library Service.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonin, Kenneth Roy

1983-01-01

Presents research design applicable to definition of minority library service needs for any minority language group in Canada, focusing on French-speaking population outside Quebec. Profiles of the target group's population, culture, needs, and library services are highlighted. Five sources are given. (EJS)

Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

1998-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency

PubMed Central

Pedrini, Paolo; Bragalanti, Natalia; Groff, Claudio

2017-01-01

Recently-developed methods that integrate multiple data sources arising from the same ecological processes have typically utilized structured data from well-defined sampling protocols (e.g., capture-recapture and telemetry). Despite this new methodological focus, the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about spatial ecological processes is unclear and, perhaps more importantly, no procedures are available to formally test whether parameter estimates are consistent across data sources and whether they are suitable for integration. Using data collected on the reintroduced brown bear population in the Italian Alps, a population of conservation importance, we combined data from three sources: traditional spatial capture-recapture data, telemetry data, and opportunistic data. We developed a fully integrated spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model that included a model-based test for data consistency to first compare model estimates using different combinations of data, and then, by acknowledging data-type differences, evaluate parameter consistency. We demonstrate that opportunistic data lend itself naturally to integration within the SCR framework and highlight the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about space use and population size. This is particularly relevant in studies of rare or elusive species, where the number of spatial encounters is usually small and where additional observations are of high value. In addition, our results highlight the importance of testing and accounting for inconsistencies in spatial information from structured and unstructured data so as to avoid the risk of spurious or averaged estimates of space use and consequently, of population size. Our work supports the use of a single modeling framework to combine spatially-referenced data while also accounting for parameter consistency. PMID:28973034

Climatology of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances observed by the midlatitude Blackstone SuperDARN radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frissell, N. A.; Baker, J. B. H.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Gerrard, A. J.; Miller, E. S.; Marini, J. P.; West, M. L.; Bristow, W. A.

2014-09-01

A climatology of daytime midlatitude medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) observed by the Blackstone Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar is presented. MSTIDs were observed primarily from fall through spring. Two populations were observed: a dominant population heading southeast (centered at 147° geographic azimuth, ranging from 100° to 210°) and a secondary population heading northwest (centered at -50° azimuth, ranging from -75° to -25°). Horizontal velocities ranged from 50 to 250 m s-1 with a distribution maximum between 100 and 150 m s-1. Horizontal wavelengths ranged from 100 to 500 km with a distribution peak at 250 km, and periods between 23 and 60 min, suggesting that the MSTIDs may be consistent with thermospheric gravity waves. A local time (LT) dependence was observed such that the dominant (southeastward) population decreased in number as the day progressed until a late afternoon increase. The secondary (northwestward) population appeared only in the afternoon, possibly indicative of neutral wind effects or variability of sources. LT dependence was not observed in other parameters. Possible solar-geomagnetic and tropospheric MSTID sources were considered. The auroral electrojet (AE) index showed a correlation with MSTID statistics. Reverse ray tracing with the HINDGRATS model indicates that the dominant population has source regions over the Great Lakes and near the geomagnetic cusp, while the secondary population source region is 100 km above the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas. This suggests that the dominant population may come from a region favorable to either tropospheric or geomagnetic sources, while the secondary population originates from a region favorable to secondary waves generated via lower atmospheric convection.

Source-Sink Colonization as a Possible Strategy of Insects Living in Temporary Habitats.

PubMed

Frouz, Jan; Kindlmann, Pavel

2015-01-01

Continuous colonization and re-colonization is critical for survival of insect species living in temporary habitats. When insect populations in temporary habitats are depleted, some species may escape extinction by surviving in permanent, but less suitable habitats, in which long-term population survival can be maintained only by immigration from other populations. Such situation has been repeatedly described in nature, but conditions when and how this occurs and how important this phenomenon is for insect metapopulation survival are still poorly known, mainly because it is difficult to study experimentally. Therefore, we used a simulation model to investigate, how environmental stochasticity, growth rate and the incidence of dispersal affect the positive effect of permanent but poor ("sink") habitats on the likelihood of metapopulation persistence in a network of high quality but temporary ("source") habitats. This model revealed that permanent habitats substantially increase the probability of metapopulation persistence of insect species with poor dispersal ability if the availability of temporary habitats is spatio-temporally synchronized. Addition of permanent habitats to a system sometimes enabled metapopulation persistence even in cases in which the metapopulation would otherwise go extinct, especially for species with high growth rates. For insect species with low growth rates the probability of a metapopulation persistence strongly depended on the proportions of "source" to "source" and "sink" to "source" dispersal rates.

sourceR: Classification and source attribution of infectious agents among heterogeneous populations

PubMed Central

French, Nigel

2017-01-01

Zoonotic diseases are a major cause of morbidity, and productivity losses in both human and animal populations. Identifying the source of food-borne zoonoses (e.g. an animal reservoir or food product) is crucial for the identification and prioritisation of food safety interventions. For many zoonotic diseases it is difficult to attribute human cases to sources of infection because there is little epidemiological information on the cases. However, microbial strain typing allows zoonotic pathogens to be categorised, and the relative frequencies of the strain types among the sources and in human cases allows inference on the likely source of each infection. We introduce sourceR, an R package for quantitative source attribution, aimed at food-borne diseases. It implements a Bayesian model using strain-typed surveillance data from both human cases and source samples, capable of identifying important sources of infection. The model measures the force of infection from each source, allowing for varying survivability, pathogenicity and virulence of pathogen strains, and varying abilities of the sources to act as vehicles of infection. A Bayesian non-parametric (Dirichlet process) approach is used to cluster pathogen strain types by epidemiological behaviour, avoiding model overfitting and allowing detection of strain types associated with potentially high “virulence”. sourceR is demonstrated using Campylobacter jejuni isolate data collected in New Zealand between 2005 and 2008. Chicken from a particular poultry supplier was identified as the major source of campylobacteriosis, which is qualitatively similar to results of previous studies using the same dataset. Additionally, the software identifies a cluster of 9 multilocus sequence types with abnormally high ‘virulence’ in humans. sourceR enables straightforward attribution of cases of zoonotic infection to putative sources of infection. As sourceR develops, we intend it to become an important and flexible resource for food-borne disease attribution studies. PMID:28558033

Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monson, Daniel H.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Bodkin, James L.

2011-01-01

Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as significant as acute effects. Further, source-sink population dynamics can explain the slow recovery observed in the spill-affected western Prince William Sound sea otter population and are consistent with available data. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Pulling it all together: the self-consistent distribution of neutral tori in Saturn's Magnetosphere based on all Cassini observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, H. T.; Richardson, J. D.

2017-12-01

Saturn's magnetosphere is unique in that the plumes from the small icy moon, Enceladus, serve at the primary source for heavy particles in Saturn's magnetosphere. The resulting co-orbiting neutral particles interact with ions, electrons, photons and other neutral particles to generate separate H2O, OH and O tori. Characterization of these toroidal distributions is essential for understanding Saturn magnetospheric sources, composition and dynamics. Unfortunately, limited direct observations of these features are available so modeling is required. A significant modeling challenge involves ensuring that either the plasma and neutral particle populations are not simply input conditions but can provide feedback to each population (i.e. are self-consistent). Jurac and Richardson (2005) executed such a self-consistent model however this research was performed prior to the return of Cassini data. In a similar fashion, we have coupled a 3-D neutral particle model (Smith et al. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010) with a plasma transport model (Richardson 1998; Richardson & Jurac 2004) to develop a self-consistent model which is constrained by all available Cassini observations and current findings on Saturn's magnetosphere and the Enceladus plume source resulting in much more accurate neutral particle distributions. We present a new self-consistent model of the distribution of the Enceladus-generated neutral tori that is validated by all available observations. We also discuss the implications for source rate and variability.

The derived population of luminous supersoft X-ray sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Stefano, R.STEFANO; Rappaport, S.

1994-01-01

The existence of a new class of astrophysical object, luminous supersoft X-ray sources, has been established through ROSAT satellite observations and analysis during the past approximately 3 yr. Because most of the radiation emitted by supersoft sources spans a range of wavelengths readily absorbed by interstellar gas, a substantial fraction of these sources may not be detectable with present satellite instrumentation. It is therefore important to derive a reliable estimate of the underlying population, based on the approximately 30 sources that have been observed to date. The work reported here combines the observational results with a theoretical analysis, to obtain an estimate of the total number of sources likely to be present in M31, the Magellanic Clouds, and in our own Galaxy. We find that in M31, where approximately 15 supersoft sources have been identified and roughly an equal number of sources are being investigated as supersoft candidates, there are likely to be approximately 2500 active supersoft sources at the present time. In our own Galaxy, where about four supersoft sources have been detected in the Galactic plane, there are likely to be approximately 1000 active sources. Similarly, with about six and about four (nonforeground) sources observed in the Large (LMC) and Small Magellanic Clouds (SMC), respectively, there should be approximately 30 supersoft sources in the LMC, and approximately 20 in the SMC. The likely uncertainties in the numbers quoted above, and the properties of observable sources relative to those of the total underlying population, are also derived in detail. These results can be scaled to estimate the numbers of supersoft sources likely to be present in other galaxies. The results reported here on the underlying population of supersoft X-ray sources are in good agreement with the results of a prior population synthesis study of the white dwarf accretor model for luminous supersoft X-ray sources. It should be emphasized, however, that the questions asked in these two investigations are distinct, that the approaches taken to answer these questions are largely independent and that the findings of these two studies could in principle have been quite different.

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

2014-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.; Church, Sarah E.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-09-01

Line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN-halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small for our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy-halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.

Line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small for ourmore » fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.

Here, line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small formore » our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE PAGES

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.; ...

2017-08-31

Here, line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small formore » our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

PubMed Central

Kiulia, Nicholas M.; Hofstra, Nynke; Vermeulen, Lucie C.; Obara, Maureen A.; Medema, Gertjan; Rose, Joan B.

2015-01-01

Group A rotaviruses (RV) are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model) to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management. PMID:25984911

Incorporating Temperature-driven Seasonal Variation in Survival, Growth, and Reproduction Models for Small Fish

EPA Science Inventory

Seasonal variation in survival and reproduction can be a large source of prediction uncertainty in models used for conservation and management. A seasonally varying matrix population model is developed that incorporates temperature-driven differences in mortality and reproduction...

Predicting Health Care Utilization in Marginalized Populations: Black, Female, Street-based Sex Workers

PubMed Central

Varga, Leah M.; Surratt, Hilary L.

2014-01-01

Background Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. Methods The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen’s Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. Findings The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Conclusions Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. PMID:24657047

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur

2017-09-01

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fit their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: jjagdish@uj.ac.za, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fitmore » their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.« less

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

PubMed

Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

2018-04-01

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian N-mixture model using multiple sources of data on abundance, movement and survival to estimate the population size of a mobile species that uses remote conservation areas. The model improves accuracy of inference relative to previous methods for estimating abundance of open populations. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Detecting black bear source–sink dynamics using individual-based genetic graphs

PubMed Central

Draheim, Hope M.; Moore, Jennifer A.; Etter, Dwayne; Winterstein, Scott R.; Scribner, Kim T.

2016-01-01

Source–sink dynamics affects population connectivity, spatial genetic structure and population viability for many species. We introduce a novel approach that uses individual-based genetic graphs to identify source–sink areas within a continuously distributed population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the northern lower peninsula (NLP) of Michigan, USA. Black bear harvest samples (n = 569, from 2002, 2006 and 2010) were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci and locations were compared across years to identify areas of consistent occupancy over time. We compared graph metrics estimated for a genetic model with metrics from 10 ecological models to identify ecological factors that were associated with sources and sinks. We identified 62 source nodes, 16 of which represent important source areas (net flux > 0.7) and 79 sink nodes. Source strength was significantly correlated with bear local harvest density (a proxy for bear density) and habitat suitability. Additionally, resampling simulations showed our approach is robust to potential sampling bias from uneven sample dispersion. Findings demonstrate black bears in the NLP exhibit asymmetric gene flow, and individual-based genetic graphs can characterize source–sink dynamics in continuously distributed species in the absence of discrete habitat patches. Our findings warrant consideration of undetected source–sink dynamics and their implications on harvest management of game species. PMID:27440668

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

PubMed

Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Smith, Peter W F; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James; Forster, Jonathan J

2015-06-01

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.

Genetic Introgression and the Survival of Florida Panther Kittens

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Onorato, David P.; Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Warren E.; Roelke, Melody E.; O’Brien, Stephen J.; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K.

2010-01-01

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982-2008 and a live recapture-dead recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) kittens (age 0 – 1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data. PMID:21113436

Genetic introgression and the survival of Florida panther kittens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Onorato, David P.; Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Warren E.; Roelke, Melody E.; O'Brien, Stephen J.; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K.

2010-01-01

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982–2008 and a live-recapture dead-recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) kittens (age 0–1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data.

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Climatic niche shift predicts thermal trait response in one but not both introductions of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus to Miami, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Kolbe, Jason J; VanMiddlesworth, Paul S; Losin, Neil; Dappen, Nathan; Losos, Jonathan B

2012-01-01

Global change is predicted to alter environmental conditions for populations in numerous ways; for example, invasive species often experience substantial shifts in climatic conditions during introduction from their native to non-native ranges. Whether these shifts elicit a phenotypic response, and how adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to phenotypic change, are key issues for understanding biological invasions and how populations may respond to local climate change. We combined modeling, field data, and a laboratory experiment to test for changing thermal tolerances during the introduction of the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus from Puerto Rico to Miami, Florida. Species distribution models and bioclimatic data analyses showed lower minimum temperatures, and greater seasonal and annual variation in temperature for Miami compared to Puerto Rico. Two separate introductions of A. cristatellus occurred in Miami about 12 km apart, one in South Miami and the other on Key Biscayne, an offshore island. As predicted from the shift in the thermal climate and the thermal tolerances of other Anolis species in Miami, laboratory acclimation and field acclimatization showed that the introduced South Miami population of A. cristatellus has diverged from its native-range source population by acquiring low-temperature acclimation ability. By contrast, the introduced Key Biscayne population showed little change compared to its source. Our analyses predicted an adaptive response for introduced populations, but our comparisons to native-range sources provided evidence for thermal plasticity in one introduced population but not the other. The rapid acquisition of thermal plasticity by A. cristatellus in South Miami may be advantageous for its long-term persistence there and expansion of its non-native range. Our results also suggest that the common assumption of no trait variation when modeling non-native species distributions is invalid. PMID:22957158

Drivers of seabird population recovery on New Zealand islands after predator eradication.

PubMed

Buxton, Rachel T; Jones, Christopher; Moller, Henrik; Towns, David R

2014-04-01

Eradication of introduced mammalian predators from islands has become increasingly common, with over 800 successful projects around the world. Historically, introduced predators extirpated or reduced the size of many seabird populations, changing the dynamics of entire island ecosystems. Although the primary outcome of many eradication projects is the restoration of affected seabird populations, natural population responses are rarely documented and mechanisms are poorly understood. We used a generic model of seabird colony growth to identify key predictor variables relevant to recovery or recolonization. We used generalized linear mixed models to test the importance of these variables in driving seabird population responses after predator eradication on islands around New Zealand. The most influential variable affecting recolonization of seabirds around New Zealand was the distance to a source population, with few cases of recolonization without a source population ≤25 km away. Colony growth was most affected by metapopulation status; there was little colony growth in species with a declining status. These characteristics may facilitate the prioritization of newly predator-free islands for active management. Although we found some evidence documenting natural recovery, generally this topic was understudied. Our results suggest that in order to guide management strategies, more effort should be allocated to monitoring wildlife response after eradication. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

A new tool that links landscale connectivity and source-sink dynamics to population viability

EPA Science Inventory

The importance of connectivity and source-sink dynamics to conservation planning is widely appreciated. But the use of these concepts in practical applications such as the identification of critical habitat has been slowed because few models are designed to identify demographic s...

What's so special about chicken immunology?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

What’s so special about chickens? Firstly, chickens are not only an invaluable model for studying immunology, they also provide the world’s main source of meat and will be a key protein source needed to feed the growing human population into the future. Poultry meat production is highly efficient ...

Decay of Fecal Indicator Bacterial Populations and Bovine-Associated Source-Tracking Markers in Freshly Deposited Cow Pats

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the survival of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and microbial source-tracking (MST) markers is critical to developing pathogen fate and transport models. Although pathogen survival in water microcosms and manure-amended soils is well documented, little is known about...

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-4M

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-4M uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent, source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify simultaneous exposures and doses of individuals and populations to multiple contaminants. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system for exposures to Multiple contaminants fr...

Development of a Web-Accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service-Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo): Study Protocol.

PubMed

Iorio, Alfonso; Keepanasseril, Arun; Foster, Gary; Navarro-Ruan, Tamara; McEneny-King, Alanna; Edginton, Andrea N; Thabane, Lehana

2016-12-15

Individual pharmacokinetic assessment is a critical component of tailored prophylaxis for hemophilia patients. Population pharmacokinetics allows using individual sparse data, thus simplifying individual pharmacokinetic studies. Implementing population pharmacokinetics capacity for the hemophilia community is beyond individual reach and requires a system effort. The Web-Accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service-Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo) project aims to assemble a database of patient pharmacokinetic data for all existing factor concentrates, develop and validate population pharmacokinetics models, and integrate these models within a Web-based calculator for individualized pharmacokinetic estimation in patients at participating treatment centers. Individual pharmacokinetic studies on factor VIII and IX concentrates will be sourced from pharmaceutical companies and independent investigators. All factor concentrate manufacturers, hemophilia treatment centers (HTCs), and independent investigators (identified via a systematic review of the literature) having on file pharmacokinetic data and willing to contribute full or sparse pharmacokinetic data will be eligible for participation. Multicompartmental modeling will be performed using a mixed-model approach for derivation and Bayesian forecasting for estimation of individual sparse data. NONMEM (ICON Development Solutions) will be used as modeling software. The WAPPS-Hemo research network has been launched and is currently joined by 30 HTCs from across the world. We have gathered dense individual pharmacokinetic data on 878 subjects, including several replicates, on 21 different molecules from 17 different sources. We have collected sparse individual pharmacokinetic data on 289 subjects from the participating centers through the testing phase of the WAPPS-Hemo Web interface. We have developed prototypal population pharmacokinetics models for 11 molecules. The WAPPS-Hemo website (available at www.wapps-hemo.org, version 2.4), with core functionalities allowing hemophilia treaters to obtain individual pharmacokinetic estimates on sparse data points after 1 or more infusions of a factor concentrate, was launched for use within the research network in July 2015. The WAPPS-Hemo project and research network aims to make it easier to perform individual pharmacokinetic assessments on a reduced number of plasma samples by adoption of a population pharmacokinetics approach. The project will also gather data to substantially enhance the current knowledge about factor concentrate pharmacokinetics and sources of its variability in target populations. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02061072; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02061072 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6mRK9bKP6). ©Alfonso Iorio, Arun Keepanasseril, Gary Foster, Tamara Navarro-Ruan, Alanna McEneny-King, Andrea N Edginton, Lehana Thabane. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 15.12.2016.

The gamma-ray luminosity function of millisecond pulsars and implications for the GeV excess

DOE PAGES

Hooper, Dan; Mohlabeng, Gopolang

2016-03-29

It has been proposed that a large population of unresolved millisecond pulsars (MSPs) could potentially account for the excess of GeV-scale gamma-rays observed from the region surrounding the Galactic Center. The viability of this scenario depends critically on the gamma-ray luminosity function of this source population, which determines how many MSPs Fermi should have already detected as resolved point sources. In this paper, we revisit the gamma-ray luminosity function of MSPs, without relying on uncertain distance measurements. Our determination, based on a comparison of models with the observed characteristics of the MSP population, suggests that Fermi should have already detectedmore » a significant number of sources associated with such a hypothesized Inner Galaxy population. As a result, we cannot rule out a scenario in which the MSPs residing near the Galactic Center are systematically less luminous than those present in the Galactic Plane or within globular clusters.« less

Users Manual for the Dynamic Student Flow Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-31

populations within each pipeline are reasonably homogeneous and the pipeline curriculum provides a structured path along which the student must progress...curriculum is structured, student populations are non-homogeneous. They are drawn from diverse sources such as the Naval Aca- demy, NROTC and the Aviation...Officer Candidate program in numbers subjectively determined to provide the best population for subsequent flight training. His- torically, different

Probing dim point sources in the inner Milky Way using PCAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daylan, Tansu; Portillo, Stephen K. N.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

2017-01-01

Poisson regression of the Fermi-LAT data in the inner Milky Way reveals an extended gamma-ray excess. An important question is whether the signal is coming from a collection of unresolved point sources, possibly old recycled pulsars, or constitutes a truly diffuse emission component. Previous analyses have relied on non-Poissonian template fits or wavelet decomposition of the Fermi-LAT data, which find evidence for a population of dim point sources just below the 3FGL flux limit. In order to be able to draw conclusions about the flux distribution of point sources at the dim end, we employ a Bayesian trans-dimensional MCMC framework by taking samples from the space of catalogs consistent with the observed gamma-ray emission in the inner Milky Way. The software implementation, PCAT (Probabilistic Cataloger), is designed to efficiently explore that catalog space in the crowded field limit such as in the galactic plane, where the model PSF, point source positions and fluxes are highly degenerate. We thus generate fair realizations of the underlying MSP population in the inner galaxy and constrain the population characteristics such as the radial and flux distribution of such sources.

Comment on “Characterizing the population of pulsars in the Galactic bulge with the Fermi large area telescope” [arXiv:1705.00009v1

DOE PAGES

Bartels, Richard

2018-04-24

Here, themore » $$\\textit{Fermi}$$-LAT Collaboration recently presented a new catalog of gamma-ray sources located within the $$40^{\\circ} \\times 40^{\\circ}$$ region around the Galactic Center~(Ajello et al. 2017) -- the Second Fermi Inner Galaxy (2FIG) catalog. Utilizing this catalog, they analyzed models for the spatial distribution and luminosity function of sources with a pulsar-like gamma-ray spectrum. Ajello et al. 2017 v1 also claimed to detect, in addition to a disk-like population of pulsar-like sources, an approximately 7$$\\sigma$$ preference for an additional centrally concentrated population of pulsar-like sources, which they referred to as a "Galactic Bulge" population. Such a population would be of great interest, as it would support a pulsar interpretation of the gamma-ray excess that has long been observed in this region. In an effort to further explore the implications of this new source catalog, we attempted to reproduce the results presented by the $$\\textit{Fermi}$$-LAT Collaboration, but failed to do so. Mimicking as closely as possible the analysis techniques undertaken in Ajello et al. 2017, we instead find that our likelihood analysis favors a very different spatial distribution and luminosity function for these sources. Most notably, our results do not exhibit a strong preference for a "Galactic Bulge" population of pulsars. Furthermore, we find that masking the regions immediately surrounding each of the 2FIG pulsar candidates does $$\\textit{not}$$ significantly impact the spectrum or intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess. Although these results refute the claim of strong evidence for a centrally concentrated pulsar population presented in Ajello et al. 2017, they neither rule out nor provide support for the possibility that the Galactic Center excess is generated by a population of low-luminosity and currently largely unobserved pulsars.« less

Comment on “Characterizing the population of pulsars in the Galactic bulge with the Fermi large area telescope” [arXiv:1705.00009v1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartels, Richard

Here, themore » $$\\textit{Fermi}$$-LAT Collaboration recently presented a new catalog of gamma-ray sources located within the $$40^{\\circ} \\times 40^{\\circ}$$ region around the Galactic Center~(Ajello et al. 2017) -- the Second Fermi Inner Galaxy (2FIG) catalog. Utilizing this catalog, they analyzed models for the spatial distribution and luminosity function of sources with a pulsar-like gamma-ray spectrum. Ajello et al. 2017 v1 also claimed to detect, in addition to a disk-like population of pulsar-like sources, an approximately 7$$\\sigma$$ preference for an additional centrally concentrated population of pulsar-like sources, which they referred to as a "Galactic Bulge" population. Such a population would be of great interest, as it would support a pulsar interpretation of the gamma-ray excess that has long been observed in this region. In an effort to further explore the implications of this new source catalog, we attempted to reproduce the results presented by the $$\\textit{Fermi}$$-LAT Collaboration, but failed to do so. Mimicking as closely as possible the analysis techniques undertaken in Ajello et al. 2017, we instead find that our likelihood analysis favors a very different spatial distribution and luminosity function for these sources. Most notably, our results do not exhibit a strong preference for a "Galactic Bulge" population of pulsars. Furthermore, we find that masking the regions immediately surrounding each of the 2FIG pulsar candidates does $$\\textit{not}$$ significantly impact the spectrum or intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess. Although these results refute the claim of strong evidence for a centrally concentrated pulsar population presented in Ajello et al. 2017, they neither rule out nor provide support for the possibility that the Galactic Center excess is generated by a population of low-luminosity and currently largely unobserved pulsars.« less

Comment on "Characterizing the population of pulsars in the Galactic bulge with the Fermi large area telescope" [arXiv:1705.00009v1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartels, Richard; Hooper, Dan; Linden, Tim; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Rodd, Nicholas L.; Safdi, Benjamin R.; Slatyer, Tracy R.

2018-06-01

The Fermi-LAT Collaboration recently presented a new catalog of gamma-ray sources located within the 40 ° × 40 ° region around the Galactic Center Ajello et al. (2017) - the Second Fermi Inner Galaxy (2FIG) catalog. Utilizing this catalog, they analyzed models for the spatial distribution and luminosity function of sources with a pulsar-like gamma-ray spectrum. Ajello et al. (2017) v1 also claimed to detect, in addition to a disk-like population of pulsar-like sources, an approximately 7 σ preference for an additional centrally concentrated population of pulsar-like sources, which they referred to as a "Galactic Bulge" population. Such a population would be of great interest, as it would support a pulsar interpretation of the gamma-ray excess that has long been observed in this region. In an effort to further explore the implications of this new source catalog, we attempted to reproduce the results presented by the Fermi-LAT Collaboration, but failed to do so. Mimicking as closely as possible the analysis techniques undertaken in Ajello et al. (2017), we instead find that our likelihood analysis favors a very different spatial distribution and luminosity function for these sources. Most notably, our results do not exhibit a strong preference for a "Galactic Bulge" population of pulsars. Furthermore, we find that masking the regions immediately surrounding each of the 2FIG pulsar candidates does not significantly impact the spectrum or intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess. Although these results refute the claim of strong evidence for a centrally concentrated pulsar population presented in Ajello et al. (2017), they neither rule out nor provide support for the possibility that the Galactic Center excess is generated by a population of low-luminosity and currently largely unobserved pulsars. In a spirit of maximal openness and transparency, we have made our analysis code available at https://github.com/bsafdi/GCE-2FIG.

Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM): Background and Applications of Data Automation

EPA Science Inventory

The Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) project demonstrates the development of a comprehensive set of open source software tools that overcome obstacles to accessing data needed by automating the process of populating model input data sets with environmental data available fr...

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-1A

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-1A uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and dose for individuals and/or populations due to co-occurring air pollutants. It uses the "One Atmosphere" concept to characterize simultaneous exposures t...

A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

Application of crowd-sourced data to multi-scale evolutionary exposure and vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Seismic exposure, defined as the assets (population, buildings, infrastructure) exposed to earthquake hazard and susceptible to damage, is a critical -but often neglected- component of seismic risk assessment. This partly stems from the burden associated with the compilation of a useful and reliable model over wide spatial areas. While detailed engineering data have still to be collected in order to constrain exposure and vulnerability models, the availability of increasingly large crowd-sourced datasets (e. g. OpenStreetMap) opens up the exciting possibility to generate incrementally evolving models. Integrating crowd-sourced and authoritative data using statistical learning methodologies can reduce models uncertainties and also provide additional drive and motivation to volunteered geoinformation collection. A case study in Central Asia will be presented and discussed.

Stochastic recruitment leads to symmetry breaking in foraging populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancalani, Tommaso; Dyson, Louise; McKane, Alan

2014-03-01

When an ant colony is faced with two identical equidistant food sources, the foraging ants are found to concentrate more on one source than the other. Analogous symmetry-breaking behaviours have been reported in various population systems, (such as queueing or stock market trading) suggesting the existence of a simple universal mechanism. Past studies have neglected the effect of demographic noise and required rather complicated models to qualitatively reproduce this behaviour. I will show how including the effects of demographic noise leads to a radically different conclusion. The symmetry-breaking arises solely due to the process of recruitment and ceases to occur for large population sizes. The latter fact provides a testable prediction for a real system.

Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Arielle W.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Stoskopf, Michael K.; Stocking, Jessica J.; O'Connell, Allan F.

2015-01-01

Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

Density estimation in tiger populations: combining information for strong inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Delampady, Mohan; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas; Macdonald, David W.

2012-01-01

A productive way forward in studies of animal populations is to efficiently make use of all the information available, either as raw data or as published sources, on critical parameters of interest. In this study, we demonstrate two approaches to the use of multiple sources of information on a parameter of fundamental interest to ecologists: animal density. The first approach produces estimates simultaneously from two different sources of data. The second approach was developed for situations in which initial data collection and analysis are followed up by subsequent data collection and prior knowledge is updated with new data using a stepwise process. Both approaches are used to estimate density of a rare and elusive predator, the tiger, by combining photographic and fecal DNA spatial capture–recapture data. The model, which combined information, provided the most precise estimate of density (8.5 ± 1.95 tigers/100 km2 [posterior mean ± SD]) relative to a model that utilized only one data source (photographic, 12.02 ± 3.02 tigers/100 km2 and fecal DNA, 6.65 ± 2.37 tigers/100 km2). Our study demonstrates that, by accounting for multiple sources of available information, estimates of animal density can be significantly improved.

Density estimation in tiger populations: combining information for strong inference.

PubMed

Gopalaswamy, Arjun M; Royle, J Andrew; Delampady, Mohan; Nichols, James D; Karanth, K Ullas; Macdonald, David W

2012-07-01

A productive way forward in studies of animal populations is to efficiently make use of all the information available, either as raw data or as published sources, on critical parameters of interest. In this study, we demonstrate two approaches to the use of multiple sources of information on a parameter of fundamental interest to ecologists: animal density. The first approach produces estimates simultaneously from two different sources of data. The second approach was developed for situations in which initial data collection and analysis are followed up by subsequent data collection and prior knowledge is updated with new data using a stepwise process. Both approaches are used to estimate density of a rare and elusive predator, the tiger, by combining photographic and fecal DNA spatial capture-recapture data. The model, which combined information, provided the most precise estimate of density (8.5 +/- 1.95 tigers/100 km2 [posterior mean +/- SD]) relative to a model that utilized only one data source (photographic, 12.02 +/- 3.02 tigers/100 km2 and fecal DNA, 6.65 +/- 2.37 tigers/100 km2). Our study demonstrates that, by accounting for multiple sources of available information, estimates of animal density can be significantly improved.

Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

2017-07-01

Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

New paradigms for Salmonella source attribution based on microbial subtyping.

PubMed

Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Franz, Eelco; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2018-05-01

Microbial subtyping is the most common approach for Salmonella source attribution. Typically, attributions are computed using frequency-matching models like the Dutch and Danish models based on phenotyping data (serotyping, phage-typing, and antimicrobial resistance profiling). Herewith, we critically review three major paradigms facing Salmonella source attribution today: (i) the use of genotyping data, particularly Multi-Locus Variable Number of Tandem Repeats Analysis (MLVA), which is replacing traditional Salmonella phenotyping beyond serotyping; (ii) the integration of case-control data into source attribution to improve risk factor identification/characterization; (iii) the investigation of non-food sources, as attributions tend to focus on foods of animal origin only. Population genetics models or simplified MLVA schemes may provide feasible options for source attribution, although there is a strong need to explore novel modelling options as we move towards whole-genome sequencing as the standard. Classical case-control studies are enhanced by incorporating source attribution results, as individuals acquiring salmonellosis from different sources have different associated risk factors. Thus, the more such analyses are performed the better Salmonella epidemiology will be understood. Reparametrizing current models allows for inclusion of sources like reptiles, the study of which improves our understanding of Salmonella epidemiology beyond food to tackle the pathogen in a more holistic way. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

2017-12-01

Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re-examine Zipf's Law. Brinkhoff, Thomas. 2016. City Population.EC - JRC; Columbia University, CIESIN. 2015. GHS population grid, derived from GPW4, multi-temporal (1975, 1990, 2000, 2015).United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2014. World Urbanization Prospects: 2014 Revision.

Sources and Sinks: A Stochastic Model of Evolution in Heterogeneous Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermsen, Rutger; Hwa, Terence

2010-12-01

We study evolution driven by spatial heterogeneity in a stochastic model of source-sink ecologies. A sink is a habitat where mortality exceeds reproduction so that a local population persists only due to immigration from a source. Immigrants can, however, adapt to conditions in the sink by mutation. To characterize the adaptation rate, we derive expressions for the first arrival time of adapted mutants. The joint effects of migration, mutation, birth, and death result in two distinct parameter regimes. These results may pertain to the rapid evolution of drug-resistant pathogens and insects.

Traffic, Air Pollution, Minority and Socio-Economic Status: Addressing Inequities in Exposure and Risk

PubMed Central

Pratt, Gregory C.; Vadali, Monika L.; Kvale, Dorian L.; Ellickson, Kristie M.

2015-01-01

Higher levels of nearby traffic increase exposure to air pollution and adversely affect health outcomes. Populations with lower socio-economic status (SES) are particularly vulnerable to stressors like air pollution. We investigated cumulative exposures and risks from traffic and from MNRiskS-modeled air pollution in multiple source categories across demographic groups. Exposures and risks, especially from on-road sources, were higher than the mean for minorities and low SES populations and lower than the mean for white and high SES populations. Owning multiple vehicles and driving alone were linked to lower household exposures and risks. Those not owning a vehicle and walking or using transit had higher household exposures and risks. These results confirm for our study location that populations on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum and minorities are disproportionately exposed to traffic and air pollution and at higher risk for adverse health outcomes. A major source of disparities appears to be the transportation infrastructure. Those outside the urban core had lower risks but drove more, while those living nearer the urban core tended to drive less but had higher exposures and risks from on-road sources. We suggest policy considerations for addressing these inequities. PMID:25996888

DIETARY RECONSTRUCTION OF AN EARLY TO MIDDLE HOLOCENE HUMAN POPULATION FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST: INSIGHTS FROM ADVANCED STABLE ISOTOPE MIXING MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The inherent sampling and preservational biases of the archaeological record make it difficult
to quantify prehistoric human diets, especially in coastal settings, where populations had access to a wide range of marine and terrestrial food sources. In certain cases, geochemica...

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiphase Modelling of Bacteria Removal in a CSO Stream

EPA Science Inventory

Indicator bacteria are an important determinant of water quality in many water resources management situations. They are also one of the more complex phenomena to model and predict. Sources abound, the populations are dynamic and influenced by many factors, and mobility through...

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

[Population models of mental health in the Russian population: assessment of an impact of living conditions and psychiatric care resources].

PubMed

Mitikhin, V G; Yastrebov, V S; Mitikhina, I A

ОBJECTIVE: The development and use of population models of mental health in the Russian population to analyze the relationship between indicators of mental disorders, psychiatric care resources taking into account medical/demographic and socio-economic factors in the period of 1992-2015. The sources of information were: 1) the data of the Russian medical statistics on the main indicators of mental health of the Russian population and psychiatric care resources; 2) government statistics on the demographic and socio-economic situation of the population of Russia during this period. The study used system data analysis, correlation and regression analyses. Linear and nonlinear models with a high level of significance were obtained to assess the impact of socio-economic, health and demographic (population, life expectancy, migration, mortality) factors and resources of the service (primarily, manpower) on the dynamics of the main indicators (prevalence, incidence) of mental health of the population. In recent years, a decline in the prevalence and incidence of the Russian population is a consequence of the scarcity of mental health services, in particular, personnel resources.

Predicting health care utilization in marginalized populations: Black, female, street-based sex workers.

PubMed

Varga, Leah M; Surratt, Hilary L

2014-01-01

Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen's Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based, female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care, contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Contribution of z < or Approx. 6 Sources to the Spatial Coherence in the Unresolved Cosmic Near-Infrared and X-Ray Backgrounds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helgason, K.; Cappelluti, N.; Hasinger, G.; Kashlinsky, A.; Ricotti, M.

2014-01-01

A spatial clustering signal has been established in Spitzer/IRAC measurements of the unresolved cosmic near-infrared background (CIB) out to large angular scales, approx. 1deg. This CIB signal, while significantly exceeding the contribution from the remaining known galaxies, was further found to be coherent at a highly statistically significant level with the unresolved soft cosmic X-ray background (CXB). This measurement probes the unresolved CXB to very faint source levels using deep near-IR source subtraction.We study contributions from extragalactic populations at low to intermediate redshifts to the measured positive cross-power signal of the CIB fluctuations with the CXB. We model the X-ray emission from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), normal galaxies, and hot gas residing in virialized structures, calculating their CXB contribution including their spatial coherence with all infrared emitting counterparts. We use a halo model framework to calculate the auto and cross-power spectra of the unresolved fluctuations based on the latest constraints of the halo occupation distribution and the biasing of AGNs, galaxies, and diffuse emission. At small angular scales (1), the 4.5microns versus 0.5-2 keV coherence can be explained by shot noise from galaxies and AGNs. However, at large angular scales (approx.10), we find that the net contribution from the modeled populations is only able to account for approx. 3% of the measured CIB×CXB cross-power. The discrepancy suggests that the CIB×CXB signal originates from the same unknown source population producing the CIB clustering signal out to approx. 1deg.

On the Non-Equilibrium Population Distribution of E-Methanol in Dark Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollman, Emma

2007-12-01

The goal of this project was to determine the typical distribution of rotational level populations in the k=0 ladder of E-methanol in dark clouds in order to provide another observational test for theoretical models of pumping. We used our own observations of several sources with the 12-m ARO telescope on Kitt Peak as well as the published observational results by Slysh et al. (1999). The relative level populations (excitation temperatures) were determined from the measured intensity ratios of a series of the J(0)-J(-1) transitions of E-methanol under the assumption of spontaneous, optically thin emission. We observed the J(0)-J(-1) lines in six sources: W75N, DR21N, DR21, and three positions at DR21OH. The J=1 to J=5 lines were observed for all sources and the J=7 line was observed for W75N, DR21N, and one position in DR21OH. We also used Slysh et al.'s results for the J=1 through 4 lines in 52 sources, for the J=5 line in 50 sources, for the J=6 line in 15 sources, and for the J=7 and 8 lines in 2 sources. We determined the excitation temperatures of the involved levels in the k=0 ladder relative to the 1(0) level for each source and averaged the results over the sources. The average excitation temperatures demonstrate strong evidence of overcooling in the k=0 ladder - the excitation temperature increases linearly with increasing energy, from 8 K to 35 K. Our observations confirm this tendency of overcooling. We will discuss the agreement of these results with the predictions of the current models of methanol pumping. The author thanks the technical staff of the 12-m ARO telescope for help with the observations. This project was supported by the NSF/REU grant AST-0354056 and the Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association.

Bismarck meets Beveridge on the Silk Road: coordinating funding sources to create a universal health financing system in Kyrgyzstan.

PubMed

Kutzin, Joseph; Ibraimova, Ainura; Jakab, Melitta; O'Dougherty, Sheila

2009-07-01

Options for health financing reform are often portrayed as a choice between general taxation (known as the Beveridge model) and social health insurance (known as the Bismarck model). Ten years of health financing reform in Kyrgyzstan, since the introduction of its compulsory health insurance fund in 1997, provide an excellent example of why it is wrong to reduce health financing policy to a choice between the Beveridge and Bismarck models. Rather than fragment the system according to the insurance status of the population, as many other low- and middle-income countries have done, the Kyrgyz reforms were guided by the objective of having a single system for the entire population. Key features include the role and gradual development of the compulsory health insurance fund as the single purchaser of health-care services for the entire population using output-based payment methods, the complete restructuring of pooling arrangements from the former decentralized budgetary structure to a single national pool, and the establishment of an explicit benefit package. Central to the process was the transformation of the role of general budget revenues - the main source of public funding for health - from directly subsidizing the supply of services to subsidizing the purchase of services on behalf of the entire population by redirecting them into the health insurance fund. Through their approach to health financing policy, and pooling in particular, the Kyrgyz health reformers demonstrated that different sources of funds can be used in an explicitly complementary manner to enable the creation of a unified, universal system.

Current steering to activate targeted neural pathways during deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic region

PubMed Central

Chaturvedi, Ashutosh; Foutz, Thomas J.; McIntyre, Cameron C.

2012-01-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has steadily evolved into an established surgical therapy for numerous neurological disorders, most notably Parkinson’s disease (PD). Traditional DBS technology relies on voltage-controlled stimulation with a single source; however, recent engineering advances are providing current-controlled devices with multiple independent sources. These new stimulators deliver constant current to the brain tissue, irrespective of impedance changes that occur around the electrode, and enable more specific steering of current towards targeted regions of interest. In this study, we examined the impact of current steering between multiple electrode contacts to directly activate three distinct neural populations in the subthalamic region commonly stimulated for the treatment of PD: projection neurons of the subthalamic nucleus (STN), globus pallidus internus (GPi) fibers of the lenticular fasiculus, and internal capsule (IC) fibers of passage. We used three-dimensional finite element electric field models, along with detailed multi-compartment cable models of the three neural populations to determine their activations using a wide range of stimulation parameter settings. Our results indicate that selective activation of neural populations largely depends on the location of the active electrode(s). Greater activation of the GPi and STN populations (without activating any side-effect related IC fibers) was achieved by current steering with multiple independent sources, compared to a single current source. Despite this potential advantage, it remains to be seen if these theoretical predictions result in a measurable clinical effect that outweighs the added complexity of the expanded stimulation parameter search space generated by the more flexible technology. PMID:22277548

Ion energization in Ganymede's magnetosphere: Using multifluid simulations to interpret ion energy spectrograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paty, C.; Paterson, W.; Winglee, R.

2008-06-01

We investigate the ion population and energy distribution within Ganymede's magnetosphere by examining Ganymede's ionospheric outflow as a source of heavy (O+) and light (H+) ions and the Jovian magnetospheric plasma as an external source of heavy ions. We develop a method for examining the energy distributions of each ion species in a three-dimensional multifluid simulation in a way directly comparable to the observations of the Plasma Experiment on the Galileo spacecraft. This is used to provide new insight to the existing controversy over the composition of Ganymede's observed ionospheric outflow, and enables further examination of the energetic signatures of the ion population trapped within Ganymede's magnetosphere. The model-predicted ionospheric outflow is consistent with the in situ ion energy spectrograms observed by the Galileo Plasma Experiment at closest approach, and requires that both ionospheric H+ and O+ are present in the population of ions exiting Ganymede's ionosphere over the polar cap. The outward flux of ionospheric ions was calculated to be ~1026 ions/cm2/s, which is in agreement with independently calculated sputtering rates of Ganymede's icy surface. The modeled spectrograms define characteristic energy signatures and populations for various regions of Ganymede's magnetosphere, which illustrate the major sources of ions trapped within the magnetosphere are Ganymede's ionospheric O+ and H+. The fact that very little plasma was observed inside Ganymede's magnetosphere during the G8 flyby is attributed to the region being shadowed from the sun for ~60 h, which may indicate the importance of photoionization for sustaining Ganymede's ionospheric plasma source.

Dark matter and pulsar model constraints from Galactic center Fermi/LAT γ-ray observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Chris; Macias, Oscar

2014-05-01

Employing Fermi/LAT γ-ray observations, several independent groups have found excess extended γ-ray emission at the Galactic center (GC). Both, annihilating dark matter (DM) or a population of ~ 103 unresolved millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are regarded as well motivated possible explanations. However, there is significant uncertainties in the diffuse Galactic background at the GC. We have performed a revaluation of these two models for the extended γ-ray source at the GC by accounting for the systematic uncertainties of the Galactic diffuse emission model. We also marginalize over point source and diffuse background parameters in the region of interest. We show that the excess emission is significantly more extended than a point source. We find that the DM (or pulsar population) signal is larger than the systematic errors and therefore proceed to determine the sectors of parameter space that provide an acceptable fit to the data. We found that a population of several thousand MSPs with parameters consistent with the average spectral shape of Fermi/LAT measured MSPs was able to fit the GC excess emission. For DM, we found that a pure τ+τ- annihilation channel is not a good fit to the data. But a mixture of τ+τ- and bb with a <σ v> of order the thermal relic value and a DM mass of around 20 to 60 GeV provides an adequate fit.

Dark matter and pulsar model constraints from Galactic Center Fermi-LAT gamma-ray observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Chris; Macías, Oscar

2013-10-01

Employing Fermi-LAT gamma-ray observations, several independent groups have found excess extended gamma-ray emission at the Galactic Center (GC). Both annihilating dark matter (DM) or a population of ˜103 unresolved millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are regarded as well-motivated possible explanations. However, there are significant uncertainties in the diffuse galactic background at the GC. We have performed a revaluation of these two models for the extended gamma-ray source at the GC by accounting for the systematic uncertainties of the Galactic diffuse emission model. We also marginalize over point-source and diffuse background parameters in the region of interest. We show that the excess emission is significantly more extended than a point source. We find that the DM (or pulsar-population) signal is larger than the systematic errors and therefore proceed to determine the sectors of parameter space that provide an acceptable fit to the data. We find that a population of 1000-2000 MSPs with parameters consistent with the average spectral shape of Fermi-LAT measured MSPs is able to fit the GC excess emission. For DM, we find that a pure τ+τ- annihilation channel is not a good fit to the data. But a mixture of τ+τ- and bb¯ with a ⟨σv⟩ of order the thermal relic value and a DM mass of around 20 to 60 GeV provides an adequate fit.

Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Sabo, John L

2010-12-31

Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web"). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

The modifying effect of the building envelope on population exposure to PM2.5 from outdoor sources

PubMed Central

Taylor, J; Shrubsole, C; Davies, M; Biddulph, P; Das, P; Hamilton, I; Vardoulakis, S; Mavrogianni, A; Jones, B; Oikonomou, E

2014-01-01

A number of studies have estimated population exposure to PM2.5 by examining modeled or measured outdoor PM2.5 levels. However, few have taken into account the mediating effects of building characteristics on the ingress of PM2.5 from outdoor sources and its impact on population exposure in the indoor domestic environment. This study describes how building simulation can be used to determine the indoor concentration of outdoor-sourced pollution for different housing typologies and how the results can be mapped using building stock models and Geographical Information Systems software to demonstrate the modifying effect of dwellings on occupant exposure to PM2.5 across London. Building archetypes broadly representative of those in the Greater London Authority were simulated for pollution infiltration using EnergyPlus. In addition, the influence of occupant behavior on indoor levels of PM2.5 from outdoor sources was examined using a temperature-dependent window-opening scenario. Results demonstrate a range of I/O ratios of PM2.5, with detached and semi-detached dwellings most vulnerable to high levels of infiltration. When the results are mapped, central London shows lower I/O ratios of PM2.5 compared with outer London, an apparent inversion of exposure most likely caused by the prevalence of flats rather than detached or semi-detached properties. PMID:24713025

Carnivore Translocations and Conservation: Insights from Population Models and Field Data for Fishers (Martes pennanti)

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jeffrey C.; Powell, Roger A.; Zielinski, William J.

2012-01-01

Translocations are frequently used to restore extirpated carnivore populations. Understanding the factors that influence translocation success is important because carnivore translocations can be time consuming, expensive, and controversial. Using population viability software, we modeled reintroductions of the fisher, a candidate for endangered or threatened status in the Pacific states of the US. Our model predicts that the most important factor influencing successful re-establishment of a fisher population is the number of adult females reintroduced (provided some males are also released). Data from 38 translocations of fishers in North America, including 30 reintroductions, 5 augmentations and 3 introductions, show that the number of females released was, indeed, a good predictor of success but that the number of males released, geographic region and proximity of the source population to the release site were also important predictors. The contradiction between model and data regarding males may relate to the assumption in the model that all males are equally good breeders. We hypothesize that many males may need to be released to insure a sufficient number of good breeders are included, probably large males. Seventy-seven percent of reintroductions with known outcomes (success or failure) succeeded; all 5 augmentations succeeded; but none of the 3 introductions succeeded. Reintroductions were instrumental in reestablishing fisher populations within their historical range and expanding the range from its most-contracted state (43% of the historical range) to its current state (68% of the historical range). To increase the likelihood of translocation success, we recommend that managers: 1) release as many fishers as possible, 2) release more females than males (55–60% females) when possible, 3) release as many adults as possible, especially large males, 4) release fishers from a nearby source population, 5) conduct a formal feasibility assessment, and 6) develop a comprehensive implementation plan that includes an active monitoring program. PMID:22479336

Reproducibility and consistency of proteomic experiments on natural populations of a non-model aquatic insect.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Galiana, Amparo; Monge, Marta; Biron, David G; Canals, Francesc; Ribera, Ignacio; Cieslak, Alexandra

2014-01-01

Population proteomics has a great potential to address evolutionary and ecological questions, but its use in wild populations of non-model organisms is hampered by uncontrolled sources of variation. Here we compare the response to temperature extremes of two geographically distant populations of a diving beetle species (Agabus ramblae) using 2-D DIGE. After one week of acclimation in the laboratory under standard conditions, a third of the specimens of each population were placed at either 4 or 27°C for 12 h, with another third left as a control. We then compared the protein expression level of three replicated samples of 2-3 specimens for each treatment. Within each population, variation between replicated samples of the same treatment was always lower than variation between treatments, except for some control samples that retained a wider range of expression levels. The two populations had a similar response, without significant differences in the number of protein spots over- or under-expressed in the pairwise comparisons between treatments. We identified exemplary proteins among those differently expressed between treatments, which proved to be proteins known to be related to thermal response or stress. Overall, our results indicate that specimens collected in the wild are suitable for proteomic analyses, as the additional sources of variation were not enough to mask the consistency and reproducibility of the response to the temperature treatments.

Reproducibility and Consistency of Proteomic Experiments on Natural Populations of a Non-Model Aquatic Insect

PubMed Central

Hidalgo-Galiana, Amparo; Monge, Marta; Biron, David G.; Canals, Francesc; Ribera, Ignacio; Cieslak, Alexandra

2014-01-01

Population proteomics has a great potential to address evolutionary and ecological questions, but its use in wild populations of non-model organisms is hampered by uncontrolled sources of variation. Here we compare the response to temperature extremes of two geographically distant populations of a diving beetle species (Agabus ramblae) using 2-D DIGE. After one week of acclimation in the laboratory under standard conditions, a third of the specimens of each population were placed at either 4 or 27°C for 12 h, with another third left as a control. We then compared the protein expression level of three replicated samples of 2–3 specimens for each treatment. Within each population, variation between replicated samples of the same treatment was always lower than variation between treatments, except for some control samples that retained a wider range of expression levels. The two populations had a similar response, without significant differences in the number of protein spots over- or under-expressed in the pairwise comparisons between treatments. We identified exemplary proteins among those differently expressed between treatments, which proved to be proteins known to be related to thermal response or stress. Overall, our results indicate that specimens collected in the wild are suitable for proteomic analyses, as the additional sources of variation were not enough to mask the consistency and reproducibility of the response to the temperature treatments. PMID:25133588

Identifying Greater Sage-Grouse source and sink habitats for conservation planning in an energy development landscape.

PubMed

Kirol, Christopher P; Beck, Jeffrey L; Huzurbazar, Snehalata V; Holloran, Matthew J; Miller, Scott N

2015-06-01

Conserving a declining species that is facing many threats, including overlap of its habitats with energy extraction activities, depends upon identifying and prioritizing the value of the habitats that remain. In addition, habitat quality is often compromised when source habitats are lost or fragmented due to anthropogenic development. Our objective was to build an ecological model to classify and map habitat quality in terms of source or sink dynamics for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), a developing coalbed natural gas field in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used occurrence and survival modeling to evaluate relationships between environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple spatial scales and for all female summer life stages, including nesting, brood-rearing, and non-brooding females. For each life stage, we created resource selection functions (RSFs). We weighted the RSFs and combined them to form a female summer occurrence map. We modeled survival also as a function of spatial variables for nest, brood, and adult female summer survival. Our survival-models were mapped as survival probability functions individually and then combined with fixed vital rates in a fitness metric model that, when mapped, predicted habitat productivity (productivity map). Our results demonstrate a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple scales that were predictive of occurrence and survival. We created a source-sink map by overlaying our female summer occurrence map and productivity map to predict habitats contributing to population surpluses (source habitats) or deficits (sink habitat) and low-occurrence habitats on the landscape. The source-sink map predicted that of the Sage-Grouse habitat within the ARPA, 30% was primary source, 29% was secondary source, 4% was primary sink, 6% was secondary sink, and 31% was low occurrence. Our results provide evidence that energy development and avoidance of energy infrastructure were probably reducing the amount of source habitat within the ARPA landscape. Our source-sink map provides managers with a means of prioritizing habitats for conservation planning based on source and sink dynamics. The spatial identification of high value (i.e., primary source) as well as suboptimal (i.e., primary sink) habitats allows for informed energy development to minimize effects on local wildlife populations.

NuSTAR Hard X-Ray Survey of the Galactic Center Region. II. X-Ray Point Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Jaesub; Mori, Kaya; Hailey, Charles J.; Nynka, Melania; Zhang, Shou; Gotthelf, Eric; Fornasini, Francesca M.; Krivonos, Roman; Bauer, Franz; Perez, Kerstin;

Relating Land Use and Human Intra-City Mobility

PubMed Central

Lee, Minjin; Holme, Petter

2015-01-01

Understanding human mobility patterns—how people move in their everyday lives—is an interdisciplinary research field. It is a question with roots back to the 19th century that has been dramatically revitalized with the recent increase in data availability. Models of human mobility often take the population distribution as a starting point. Another, sometimes more accurate, data source is land-use maps. In this paper, we discuss how the intra-city movement patterns, and consequently population distribution, can be predicted from such data sources. As a link between land use and mobility, we show that the purposes of people’s trips are strongly correlated with the land use of the trip’s origin and destination. We calibrate, validate and discuss our model using survey data. PMID:26445147

Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

2011-01-01

Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographicallymore » scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.« less

Using Model Comparisons to Understand Sources of Nitrogen Delivered to US Coastal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrackin, M. L.; Harrison, J.; Compton, J. E.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen loading to water bodies can result in eutrophication-related hypoxia and degraded water quality. The relative contributions of different anthropogenic and natural sources of in-stream N cannot be directly measured at whole-watershed scales; hence, N source attribution estimates at scales beyond a small catchment must rely on models. Although such estimates have been accomplished using individual N loading models, there has not yet been a comparison of source attribution by multiple regional- and continental-scale models. We compared results from two models applied at large spatial scales: Nutrient Export from WatershedS (NEWS) and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watersheds (SPARROW). Despite widely divergent approaches to source attribution, NEWS and SPARROW identified the same dominant sources of N for 65% of the modeled drainage area of the continental US. Human activities accounted for over two-thirds of N delivered to the coastal zone. Regionally, the single largest sources of N predicted by both models reflect land-use patterns across the country. Sewage was an important source in densely populated regions along the east and west coasts of the US. Fertilizer and livestock manure were dominant in the Mississippi River Basin, where the bulk of agricultural areas are located. Run-off from undeveloped areas was the largest source of N delivered to coastal areas in the northwestern US. Our analysis shows that comparisons of source apportionment between models can increase confidence in modeled output by revealing areas of agreement and disagreement. We found predictions for agriculture and atmospheric deposition to be comparable between models; however, attribution to sewage was greater by SPARROW than by NEWS, while the reverse was true for natural N sources. Such differences in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and sources of input data. Nonetheless, model comparisons provide strong evidence that anthropogenic activities have a profound effect on N delivered to coastal areas of the US, especially along the Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico.

A Chandra X-Ray Study of NGC 1068 IL the Luminous X-Ray Source Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, David A.; Wilson, Andrew S.

2003-01-01

We present an analysis of the compact X-ray source population in the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068, imaged with a approx. 50 ks Chandra observation. We find a total of 84 compact sources on the S3 chip, of which 66 are located within the 25.0 B-mag/arcsec isophote of the galactic disk of NGC 1068. Spectra have been obtained for the 21 sources with at least 50 counts and modeled with both multicolor disk blackbody and power-law models. The power-law model provides the better description of the spectrum for 18 of these sources. For fainter sources, the spectral index has been estimated from the hardness ratio. Five sources have 0.4 - 8 keV intrinsic luminosities greater than 10(exp 39)ergs/ s, assuming that their emission is isotropic and that they are associated with NGC 1068. We refer to these sources as intermediate-luminosity X-ray objects (ISOs). If these five sources are X-ray binaries accreting with luminosities that are both sub-Eddington and isotropic, then the implied source masses are approx greater than 7 solar mass, and so they are inferred to be black holes. Most of the spectrally modeled sources have spectral shapes similar to Galactic black hole candidates. However, the brightest compact source in NGC 1068 has a spectrum that is much harder than that found in Galactic black hole candidates and other ISOs. The brightest source also shows large amplitude variability on both short-term and long-term timescales, with the count rate possibly decreasing by a factor of 2 in approx. 2 ks during our Chundra observation, and the source flux decreasing by a factor of 5 between our observation and the grating observations taken just over 9 months later. The ratio of the number of sources with luminosities greater than 2.1 x 10(exp 38) ergs/s in the 0.4 - 8 keV band to the rate of massive (greater than 5 solar mass) star formation is the same, to within a factor of 2, for NGC 1068, the Antennae, NGC 5194 (the main galaxy in M51), and the Circinus galaxy. This suggests that the rate of production of X-ray binaries per massive star is approximately the same for galaxies with currently active star formation, including "starbursts."

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Xu, Yu-Lin

2008-01-01

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Phylogeographic analysis of the Douglas-fir beetle Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Treesearch

Enrico A. Ruíz; Jane L. Hayes; John E. Rinehart; G. Zúñiga

2007-01-01

Population genetic structure studies made in genus Dendroctonus have been conducted from the perspectives of allopatric and sympatric models. In the first case, host effect and historical contingency were not recognized as a source of variation, while the later considered the host itself as a source of reproductive isolation. Nevertheless, both...

Use of empirically derived source-destination models to map regional conservation corridors

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Michael K. Schwartz

2008-01-01

The ability of populations to be connected across large landscapes via dispersal is critical to longterm viability for many species. One means to mitigate population isolation is the protection of movement corridors among habitat patches. Nevertheless, the utility of small, narrow, linear features as habitat corridors has been hotly debated. Here, we argue that...

Identification of information types and sources by the public for promoting awareness of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Hoda, Jradi

2016-02-01

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is a viral respiratory disease of serious consequences caused by MERS Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Saudi communities still lack awareness of available protective measures to prevent the transmission of the virus. It is necessary to explore the current information-seeking strategies and preferences for communication tools among the Saudi population to promote dissemination of accurate information. Guided by McGuire's Input-Output Persuasion Model and focusing on input variables (receiver characteristics, sources, message, channel and destination), we explored the current information-seeking strategies and preferences for different communication tools among residents of Riyadh (n = 658). Preferred and sought-after information sources on MERS. Most participants in the sample were female (61.7%), and the majority (98.2%) had internet access at home. The internet was the most commonly used source of information (39.5%) and the most endorsed channel for a MERS awareness campaign. Physicians were the preferred source of information (45.6%), followed by other health care providers (31.3%). In univariate multinomial logistic regression models, males and individuals aged ≤27 years were more likely to seek information from the internet than from physicians. Residents of southern and western Riyadh preferred physicians as a credible source of information over the Ministry of Health. The results of this survey provide valuable information on how to reach this population and for understanding how to launch an effective MERS risk communication campaign in a Saudi population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Discrete X-Ray Source Populations and Star Formation History in Nearby Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zezas, Andreas; Hasan, Hashima (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

This program aims in understanding the connection between the discrete X-ray source populations observed in nearby galaxies and the history of star-formation in these galaxies. The ultimate goal is to use this knowledge in order to constrain X-ray binary evolution channels. For this reason although the program is primarily observational it has a significant modeling component. During the second year of this study we focused on detailed studies of the Antennae galaxies and the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). We also performed the initial analysis of the 5 galaxies forming a starburst-age sequence.

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higdon, J. C.; Lingenfelter, R. E.

1994-01-01

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Assessing cancer risk in China from γ-hexachlorocyclohexane emitted from Chinese and Indian sources.

PubMed

Xu, Yue; Tian, Chongguo; Ma, Jianmin; Wang, Xiaoping; Li, Jun; Tang, Jianhui; Chen, Yingjun; Qin, Wei; Zhang, Gan

2013-07-02

Three models, including an atmospheric transport model, a multimedia exposure model, and a risk assessment model, were used to assess cancer risk in China caused by γ-HCH (gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane) emitted from Chinese and Indian sources. Extensive model investigations revealed the contribution of different sources to the cancer risk in China. Cancer risk in Eastern China was primarily attributable to γ-HCH contamination from Chinese sources, whereas cancer risk in Western China was caused mostly by Indian emissions. The contribution of fresh use of lindane in India to the cancer risk in China was almost 1 order of magnitude higher than that of the reemission of γ-HCH from Indian soils. Of total population, 58% (about 0.79 billion) residents in China were found to live in the environment with high levels of cancer risk exceeding the acceptable cancer risk of 10(-6), recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The cancer risk in China was mostly induced by the local contamination of γ-HCH emitted from Chinese sources, whereas fresh use of lindane in India will become a significant source of the cancer risk in China if Indian emissions maintain their current levels.

Relating adaptive genetic traits to climate for Sandberg bluegrass from the intermountain western United States.

PubMed

Johnson, Richard C; Horning, Matthew E; Espeland, Erin K; Vance-Borland, Ken

2015-02-01

Genetic variation for potentially adaptive traits of the key restoration species Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl) was assessed over the intermountain western United States in relation to source population climate. Common gardens were established at two intermountain west sites with progeny from two maternal parents from each of 130 wild populations. Data were collected over 2 years at each site on fifteen plant traits associated with production, phenology, and morphology. Analyses of variance revealed strong population differences for all plant traits (P < 0.0001), indicating genetic variation. Both the canonical correlation and linear correlation established associations between source populations and climate variability. Populations from warmer, more arid climates had generally lower dry weight, earlier phenology, and smaller, narrower leaves than those from cooler, moister climates. The first three canonical variates were regressed with climate variables resulting in significant models (P < 0.0001) used to map 12 seed zones. Of the 700 981 km(2) mapped, four seed zones represented 92% of the area in typically semi-arid and arid regions. The association of genetic variation with source climates in the intermountain west suggested climate driven natural selection and evolution. We recommend seed transfer zones and population movement guidelines to enhance adaptation and diversity for large-scale restoration projects.

Nemo: an evolutionary and population genetics programming framework.

PubMed

Guillaume, Frédéric; Rougemont, Jacques

2006-10-15

Nemo is an individual-based, genetically explicit and stochastic population computer program for the simulation of population genetics and life-history trait evolution in a metapopulation context. It comes as both a C++ programming framework and an executable program file. Its object-oriented programming design gives it the flexibility and extensibility needed to implement a large variety of forward-time evolutionary models. It provides developers with abstract models allowing them to implement their own life-history traits and life-cycle events. Nemo offers a large panel of population models, from the Island model to lattice models with demographic or environmental stochasticity and a variety of already implemented traits (deleterious mutations, neutral markers and more), life-cycle events (mating, dispersal, aging, selection, etc.) and output operators for saving data and statistics. It runs on all major computer platforms including parallel computing environments. The source code, binaries and documentation are available under the GNU General Public License at http://nemo2.sourceforge.net.

Metapopulation dynamics and total biomass: Understanding the effects of diffusion in complex networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

2018-05-01

In this study, I explored the impact of constructing a new dispersal route between two different patches in a metapopulation. My results indicated that its success/failure on the population abundance greatly depends on the patches directly involved and negligibly on the network topology. Specifically, constructing a dispersal route is highly recommended if it connects a source to a source that is close to becoming a sink or a sink that is close to becoming a source. This biological property is the basis for understanding the influence of the network topology on the population abundance. According to some thresholds discussed in this manuscript, I identified when a given route has a positive or negative effect on the population size. Consequently, as a simple rule of thumb, managers should look for metapopulations that have the maximum (resp. minimum) number paths with a positive (resp. negative) effect on the population abundance. As emphasized, the biological results of this paper do not depend on the model formulation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The modifying effect of the building envelope on population exposure to PM2.5 from outdoor sources.

PubMed

Taylor, J; Shrubsole, C; Davies, M; Biddulph, P; Das, P; Hamilton, I; Vardoulakis, S; Mavrogianni, A; Jones, B; Oikonomou, E

2014-12-01

A number of studies have estimated population exposure to PM2.5 by examining modeled or measured outdoor PM2.5 levels. However, few have taken into account the mediating effects of building characteristics on the ingress of PM2.5 from outdoor sources and its impact on population exposure in the indoor domestic environment. This study describes how building simulation can be used to determine the indoor concentration of outdoor-sourced pollution for different housing typologies and how the results can be mapped using building stock models and Geographical Information Systems software to demonstrate the modifying effect of dwellings on occupant exposure to PM2.5 across London. Building archetypes broadly representative of those in the Greater London Authority were simulated for pollution infiltration using EnergyPlus. In addition, the influence of occupant behavior on indoor levels of PM2.5 from outdoor sources was examined using a temperature-dependent window-opening scenario. Results demonstrate a range of I/O ratios of PM2.5 , with detached and semi-detached dwellings most vulnerable to high levels of infiltration. When the results are mapped, central London shows lower I/O ratios of PM2.5 compared with outer London, an apparent inversion of exposure most likely caused by the prevalence of flats rather than detached or semi-detached properties. Population exposure to air pollution is typically evaluated using the outdoor concentration of pollutants and does not account for the fact that people in London spend over 80% of their time indoors. In this article, building simulation is used to model the infiltration of outdoor PM2.5 into the domestic indoor environment for dwellings in a London building stock model, and the results mapped. The results show the variation in relative vulnerability of dwellings to pollution infiltration, as well as an estimated absolute indoor concentration across the Greater London Authority (GLA) scaled by local outdoor levels. The practical application of this work is a better understanding of the modifying effect of the building geometry and envelope design on pollution exposure, and how the London building stock may alter exposure. The results will be used to inform population exposure to PM2.5 in future environmental epidemiological studies. © 2014 The Authors. Indoor Air Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Joint modeling and registration of cell populations in cohorts of high-dimensional flow cytometric data.

PubMed

Pyne, Saumyadipta; Lee, Sharon X; Wang, Kui; Irish, Jonathan; Tamayo, Pablo; Nazaire, Marc-Danie; Duong, Tarn; Ng, Shu-Kay; Hafler, David; Levy, Ronald; Nolan, Garry P; Mesirov, Jill; McLachlan, Geoffrey J

2014-01-01

In biomedical applications, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multivariate responses of a panel of markers such as from a signaling network. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While computational methods can identify cell populations in individual samples, without the ability to automatically match them across samples, it is difficult to compare and characterize the populations in typical experiments, such as those responding to various stimulations or distinctive of particular patients or time-points, especially when there are many samples. Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM) is a multi-level framework for simultaneous modeling and registration of populations across a cohort. JCM models every population with a robust multivariate probability distribution. Simultaneously, JCM fits a random-effects model to construct an overall batch template--used for registering populations across samples, and classifying new samples. By tackling systems-level variation, JCM supports practical biomedical applications involving large cohorts. Software for fitting the JCM models have been implemented in an R package EMMIX-JCM, available from http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/mix_soft/EMMIX-JCM/.

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling.

PubMed

Ackleh, Azmy S; Chiquet, Ross A; Ma, Baoling; Tang, Tingting; Caswell, Hal; Veprauskas, Amy; Sidorovskaia, Natalia

2017-08-01

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.

Sources of hydrocarbons in urban road dust: Identification, quantification and prediction.

PubMed

Mummullage, Sandya; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2016-09-01

Among urban stormwater pollutants, hydrocarbons are a significant environmental concern due to their toxicity and relatively stable chemical structure. This study focused on the identification of hydrocarbon contributing sources to urban road dust and approaches for the quantification of pollutant loads to enhance the design of source control measures. The study confirmed the validity of the use of mathematical techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) for source identification and principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores (PCA/APCS) receptor model for pollutant load quantification. Study outcomes identified non-combusted lubrication oils, non-combusted diesel fuels and tyre and asphalt wear as the three most critical urban hydrocarbon sources. The site specific variabilities of contributions from sources were replicated using three mathematical models. The models employed predictor variables of daily traffic volume (DTV), road surface texture depth (TD), slope of the road section (SLP), effective population (EPOP) and effective impervious fraction (EIF), which can be considered as the five governing parameters of pollutant generation, deposition and redistribution. Models were developed such that they can be applicable in determining hydrocarbon contributions from urban sites enabling effective design of source control measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial patterns of mobile source particulate matter emissions-to-exposure relationships across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Susan L.; Wilson, Andrew M.; Spengler, John D.; Levy, Jonathan I.

Assessing the public health benefits from air pollution control measures is assisted by understanding the relationship between mobile source emissions and subsequent fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) exposure. Since this relationship varies by location, we characterized its magnitude and geographic distribution using the intake fraction (iF) concept. We considered emissions of primary PM 2.5 as well as particle precursors SO 2 and NO x from each of 3080 counties in the US. We modeled the relationship between these emissions and total US population exposure to PM 2.5, making use of a source-receptor matrix developed for health risk assessment. For primary PM 2.5, we found a median iF of 1.2 per million, with a range of 0.12-25. Half of the total exposure was reached by a median distance of 150 km from the county where mobile source emissions originated, though this spatial extent varied across counties from within the county borders to 1800 km away. For secondary ammonium sulfate from SO 2 emissions, the median iF was 0.41 per million (range: 0.050-10), versus 0.068 per million for secondary ammonium nitrate from NO x emissions (range: 0.00092-1.3). The median distance to half of the total exposure was greater for secondary PM 2.5 (450 km for sulfate, 390 km for nitrate). Regression analyses using exhaustive population predictors explained much of the variation in primary PM 2.5 iF ( R2=0.83) as well as secondary sulfate and nitrate iF ( R2=0.74 and 0.60), with greater near-source contribution for primary than for secondary PM 2.5. We conclude that long-range dispersion models with coarse geographic resolution are appropriate for risk assessments of secondary PM 2.5 or primary PM 2.5 emitted from mobile sources in rural areas, but that more resolved dispersion models are warranted for primary PM 2.5 in urban areas due to the substantial contribution of near-source populations.

Comparison of Marker-Based Genomic Estimated Breeding Values and Phenotypic Evaluation for Selection of Bacterial Spot Resistance in Tomato.

PubMed

Liabeuf, Debora; Sim, Sung-Chur; Francis, David M

2018-03-01

Bacterial spot affects tomato crops (Solanum lycopersicum) grown under humid conditions. Major genes and quantitative trait loci (QTL) for resistance have been described, and multiple loci from diverse sources need to be combined to improve disease control. We investigated genomic selection (GS) prediction models for resistance to Xanthomonas euvesicatoria and experimentally evaluated the accuracy of these models. The training population consisted of 109 families combining resistance from four sources and directionally selected from a population of 1,100 individuals. The families were evaluated on a plot basis in replicated inoculated trials and genotyped with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). We compared the prediction ability of models developed with 14 to 387 SNP. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were derived using Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (BL) and ridge regression (RR). Evaluations were based on leave-one-out cross validation and on empirical observations in replicated field trials using the next generation of inbred progeny and a hybrid population resulting from selections in the training population. Prediction ability was evaluated based on correlations between GEBV and phenotypes (r g ), percentage of coselection between genomic and phenotypic selection, and relative efficiency of selection (r g /r p ). Results were similar with BL and RR models. Models using only markers previously identified as significantly associated with resistance but weighted based on GEBV and mixed models with markers associated with resistance treated as fixed effects and markers distributed in the genome treated as random effects offered greater accuracy and a high percentage of coselection. The accuracy of these models to predict the performance of progeny and hybrids exceeded the accuracy of phenotypic selection.

Restoration over time and sustainability of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi.

PubMed

Álvares-Carvalho, S V; Silva-Mann, R; Gois, I B; Melo, M F V; Oliveira, A S; Ferreira, R A; Gomes, L J

2017-05-31

The success of recovery programs on degraded areas is dependent on the genetic material to be used, which should present heterozygosity and genetic diversity in native and recovered populations. This study was carried out to evaluate the model efficiency to enable the recovery of a degraded area of the Lower São Francisco, Sergipe, Brazil. The target species for this study was Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi. Three populations were analyzed, the recovered area, seed-tree source population, and native tree population border established to the recovered area. The random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers were used for diversity analysis. Genetic structure was estimated to evaluate the level of genetic variability existent in each population. There was no correlation between the spatial distribution and the genetic distances for all trees of the recovered area. The heterozygosity present in the recovered population was higher than the native tree population. The seed-tree source population presents genetic bottlenecks. Three clusters were suggested (ΔK = 3) with non-genetic structure. High intra-population genetic variability and inter-population differentiation are present. However, gene flow may also introduce potentially adaptive alleles in the populations of the recovered area, and the native population is necessary to ensure the sustainability and maintenance of the populations by allelic exchange.

A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, G.R.; Kapo, K.E.

2004-01-01

Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features. The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations. Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km2 (200 people/mile 2). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km2 (50 people/mile2), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate. Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative to transportation network and population distribution data. The models can be used on a regional scale to quickly map the relative site suitability for a RAP or RPCC aggregate recycling operation in a particular area based on transportation network and population parameters. The results can be used to identify general areas to be further evaluated on a site-specific basis using more detailed marketplace information. As transportation or population features change due to planning or actual development, the models can be easily revised to reflect these changes. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating deep surveys of the Galactic Plane with the Advanced Gamma-ray Imaging System (AGIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Stefan; Digel, Seth

2009-05-01

The pioneering survey of the Galactic plane by H.E.S.S., together with the northern complement now underway with VERITAS, has shown the inner Milky Way to be rich in TeV-emitting sources; new source classes have been found among the H.E.S.S. detections and unidentified sources remain. In order to explore optimizations of the design of an Advanced Gamma-ray Imaging System (AGIS)-like instrument for survey science, we constructed a model of the flux and size distributions of Galactic TeV sources, normalized to the H.E.S.S. sources but extrapolated to lower flux levels. We investigated potential outcomes from a survey with the order of magnitude improvement in sensitivity and attendant improvement in angular resolution planned for AGIS. Studies of individual sources and populations found with such a sensitivity survey will advance understanding of astrophysical particle acceleration, source populations, and even high-energy cosmic rays via detection of the low-level TeV diffuse emission in regions of high cosmic-ray densitiy.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach

PubMed Central

Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M.

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles. PMID:28459816

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

PubMed

Chinique de Armas, Yadira; Roksandic, Mirjana; Nikitović, Dejana; Rodríguez Suárez, Roberto; Smith, David; Kanik, Nadine; García Jordá, Dailys; Buhay, William M

2017-01-01

The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba), with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females) was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

2011-03-01

Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

Trail Creek II: Modeling Flow and E. Coli Concentrations in a Small Urban Stream using SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radcliffe, D. E.; Saintil, T.

2017-12-01

Pathogens are one of the leading causes of stream and river impairment in the State of Georgia. The common presence of fecal bacteria is driven by several factors including rapid population growth stressing pre-existing and ageing infrastructure, urbanization and poor planning, increase percent imperviousness, urban runoff, municipal discharges, sewage, pet/wildlife waste and leaky septic tanks. The Trail Creek watershed, located in Athens-Clarke County, Georgia covers about 33 km2. Stream segments within Trail Creek violate the GA standard due to high levels of fecal coliform bacteria. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling software was used to predict E. coli bacteria concentrations during baseflow and stormflow. Census data from the county was used for human and animal population estimates and the Fecal Indicator Tool to generate the number of colony forming units of E. Coli for each source. The model was calibrated at a daily time step with one year of monitored streamflow and E. coli bacteria data using SWAT-CUP and the SUFI2 algorithm. To simulate leaking sewer lines, we added point sources in the five subbasins in the SWAT model with the greatest length of sewer line within 50 m of the stream. The flow in the point sources were set to 5% of the stream flow and the bacteria count set to that of raw sewage (30,000 cfu/100 mL). The calibrated model showed that the average load during 2003-2013 at the watershed outlet was 13 million cfu per month. Using the calibrated model, we simulated scenarios that assumed leaking sewers were repaired in one of the five subbasins with point sources. The reduction ranged from 10 to 46%, with the largest reduction in subbasin in the downtown area. Future modeling work will focus on the use of green infrastructure to address sources of bacteria.

Magnetar Bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kouveliotou, Chryssa

2014-01-01

The Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) was launched in June 2008. During the last five years the instrument has observed several hundreds of bursts from 8 confirmed magnetars and 19 events from unconfirmed sources. I will discuss the results of the GBM magnetar burst catalog, expand on the different properties of their diverse source population, and compare these results with the bursting activity of past sources. I will then conclude with thoughts of how these properties fit the magnetar theoretical models.

Efficient Moment-Based Inference of Admixture Parameters and Sources of Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Levin, Alex; Reich, David; Patterson, Nick; Berger, Bonnie

2013-01-01

The recent explosion in available genetic data has led to significant advances in understanding the demographic histories of and relationships among human populations. It is still a challenge, however, to infer reliable parameter values for complicated models involving many populations. Here, we present MixMapper, an efficient, interactive method for constructing phylogenetic trees including admixture events using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data. MixMapper implements a novel two-phase approach to admixture inference using moment statistics, first building an unadmixed scaffold tree and then adding admixed populations by solving systems of equations that express allele frequency divergences in terms of mixture parameters. Importantly, all features of the model, including topology, sources of gene flow, branch lengths, and mixture proportions, are optimized automatically from the data and include estimates of statistical uncertainty. MixMapper also uses a new method to express branch lengths in easily interpretable drift units. We apply MixMapper to recently published data for Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel individuals genotyped on a SNP array designed especially for use in population genetics studies, obtaining confident results for 30 populations, 20 of them admixed. Notably, we confirm a signal of ancient admixture in European populations—including previously undetected admixture in Sardinians and Basques—involving a proportion of 20–40% ancient northern Eurasian ancestry. PMID:23709261

Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

RECEPTOR MODELING OF AMBIENT AND PERSONAL EXPOSURE SAMPLES: 1998 BALTIMORE PARTICULATE MATTER EPIDEMIOLOGY-EXPOSURE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Sources of particulate matter exposure for an elderly population in a city north of Baltimore, MD were evaluated using advanced factor analysis models. Data collected with Versatile Air Pollutant Samplers (VAPS) positioned at a community site, outside and inside of an elderly ...

Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Savings in consumptive use through limited or deficit irrigation in agriculture has become an increasingly viable source of additional water for places with high population growth such as the Colorado Front Range, USA. Crop models provide a mechanism to evaluate various management methods without pe...

Distinguishing dark matter from unresolved point sources in the Inner Galaxy with photon statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Samuel K.; Lisanti, Mariangela; Safdi, Benjamin R., E-mail: samuelkl@princeton.edu, E-mail: mlisanti@princeton.edu, E-mail: bsafdi@princeton.edu

2015-05-01

Data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope suggests that there is an extended excess of GeV gamma-ray photons in the Inner Galaxy. Identifying potential astrophysical sources that contribute to this excess is an important step in verifying whether the signal originates from annihilating dark matter. In this paper, we focus on the potential contribution of unresolved point sources, such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). We propose that the statistics of the photons—in particular, the flux probability density function (PDF) of the photon counts below the point-source detection threshold—can potentially distinguish between the dark-matter and point-source interpretations. We calculate the flux PDFmore » via the method of generating functions for these two models of the excess. Working in the framework of Bayesian model comparison, we then demonstrate that the flux PDF can potentially provide evidence for an unresolved MSP-like point-source population.« less

Modelling the impacts of global change on concentrations of Escherichia coli in an urban river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Leconte, Robert; Huaringa-Alvarez, Uriel; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Autixier, Laurène; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

2017-10-01

Discharges of combined sewer system overflows (CSOs) affect water quality in drinking water sources despite increasing regulation and discharge restrictions. A hydrodynamic model was applied to simulate the transport and dispersion of fecal contaminants from CSO discharges and to quantify the impacts of climate and population changes on the water quality of the river used as a drinking water source in Québec, Canada. The dispersion model was used to quantify Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at drinking water intakes. Extreme flows during high and low water events were based on a frequency analysis in current and future climate scenarios. The increase of the number of discharges was quantified in current and future climate scenarios with regards to the frequency of overflows observed between 2009 and 2012. For future climate scenarios, effects of an increase of population were estimated according to current population growth statistics, independently of local changes in precipitation that are more difficult to predict than changes to regional scale hydrology. Under ;business-as-usual; scenarios restricting increases in CSO discharge frequency, mean E. coli concentrations at downstream drinking water intakes are expected to increase by up to 87% depending on the future climate scenario and could lead to changes in drinking water treatment requirements for the worst case scenarios. The greatest uncertainties are related to future local discharge loads. Climate change adaptation with regards to drinking water quality must focus on characterizing the impacts of global change at a local scale. Source water protection planning must consider the impacts of climate and population change to avoid further degradation of water quality.

Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

2011-01-01

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

Hunting statistics: what data for what use? An account of an international workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Lancia, R.A.; Lebreton, J.D.

2001-01-01

Hunting interacts with the underlying dynamics of game species in several different ways and is, at the same time, a source of valuable information not easily obtained from populations that are not subjected to hunting. Specific questions, including the sustainability of hunting activities, can be addressed using hunting statistics. Such investigations will frequently require that hunting statistics be combined with data from other sources of population-level information. Such reflections served as a basis for the meeting, ?Hunting Statistics: What Data for What Use,? held on January 15-18, 2001 in Saint-Benoist, France. We review here the 20 talks held during the workshop and the contribution of hunting statistics to our knowledge of the population dynamics of game species. Three specific topics (adaptive management, catch-effort models, and dynamics of exploited populations) were highlighted as important themes and are more extensively presented as boxes.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

A Marriage Of Larval Modeling And Empirical Data: Linking Adult, Larval And Juvenile Scallops In An Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer, S.; Wahle, R.; Brooks, D. A.; Brady, D. C.

2016-02-01

The giant sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, is a commercially valuable sedentary broadcast spawner that occupies offshore banks and coastal bays and estuaries in the Northwest Atlantic. Although area closures have helped repopulate depleted scallop populations, little is known about whether populations at densities that yield larvae supply local or distant populations. Surveying scallop populations in the Damariscotta River estuary in Maine during the 2013 and 2014 spawning seasons, and settling out spat bags to collect settling larvae along the gradient of the estuary, we were able to compare adult densities to newly settled juvenile (`spat') abundance. Using the location where we found a high density of adults, we incorporated previously published behavior, pelagic larval duration, wind and current data into a particle dispersal model within the estuary to determine likely sinks for larvae from the 2013 and 2014 spawning seasons. Preliminary model simulations demonstrate where in the estuary swimming is effective in affecting water column position for larvae, and that most larvae are retained much closer to the mouth of the estuary than previously expected. Combining larval dispersal modeling with empirical data on adult densities and spat settlement on the scale of an embayment or estuary may be helpful in determining sources, sinks and areas that are both sources and sinks for shellfish species that are endangered or economically critical. This may aid in determining small area closures or Marine Protected Areas along coastal regions in the Gulf of Maine and beyond.

Hydrological modelling of snail dispersal patterns in Msambweni, Kenya and potential resurgence of Schistosoma haematobium transmission.

PubMed

Clennon, J A; King, C H; Muchiri, E M; Kitron, U

2007-05-01

Urinary schistosomiasis is an important source of human morbidity in Msambweni, Kenya, where the intermediate host snail, Bulinus nasutus is found in ponds and water pools. In the past, aquatic habitats in the area have been studied separately; however, recent collections of B. nasutus snails and shells indicated that many of these ponds are in fact connected during and following sufficient rains. Satellite imagery and a geographical information system (GIS) were used to survey the main water courses and potential drainage routes, to locate potential source populations of snails and to determine probable snail dispersal routes. The 2 water bodies implicated as being the most important Schistosoma haematobium transmission foci in the area were found to differ in their degree of connectivity to other B. nasutus source habitats. One pond becomes connected even after normal rains, while the other pond requires prolonged rains or flooding to become connected with source habitats. Consequently, the transmission foci differ in their susceptibility to snail population control measures. Spatially explicit dispersal models that consider the spatial and temporal patterns of connectivity between aquatic habitats will contribute to improved snail surveillance and more focused control for urinary schistosomiasis at a local level.

Use of population exposure frequency distributions to simulate effects of policy interventions on NO2 exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitroulopoulou, C.; Ashmore, M. R.; Terry, A. C.

2017-02-01

Health effects of air pollution on individuals depend on their personal exposure, but few modelling tools are available which can predict how the distribution of personal exposures within a city will change in response to policies to reduce emissions both indoors and outdoors. We describe a new probabilistic modelling framework (INDAIR-2/EXPAIR), which provides predictions of the personal exposure frequency distribution (PEFD) across a city to assess the effects of both reduced emissions from home sources and reduced roadside concentrations on population exposure. The model uses a national time activity database, which gives the percentage of each population group in different residential and non-residential micro-environments, and links this, for the home, to predictions of concentrations from a three-compartment model, and for non-residential microenvironments to empirical indoor/outdoor ratios. This paper presents modelled PEFDs for NO2 in the city of Leicester, for children, the elderly, and office workers, comparing results in different seasons and on different days of the week. While the mean NO2 population exposure was close to, or below the urban background concentration, the 95%ile of the PEFD was well above the urban background concentration. The relationship between both mean and 95%ile PEFD and urban background concentrations was strongly influenced by air exchange rate. The 24 h mean PEFD showed relative small differences between the population groups, with both removal of home sources and reductions of roadside concentrations on roads with a high traffic density having similar effects in reducing mean exposure. In contrast, the 1 h maximum of the PEFD was significantly higher for children and the elderly than for office workers, and showed a much greater response to reduced home emissions in these groups. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the dynamics of NO2 exposure at a population level within different groups, if the benefits of policy interventions are to be accurately assessed.

Extending the Lincoln-Petersen estimator for multiple identifications in one source.

PubMed

Köse, T; Orman, M; Ikiz, F; Baksh, M F; Gallagher, J; Böhning, D

2014-10-30

The Lincoln-Petersen estimator is one of the most popular estimators used in capture-recapture studies. It was developed for a sampling situation in which two sources independently identify members of a target population. For each of the two sources, it is determined if a unit of the target population is identified or not. This leads to a 2 × 2 table with frequencies f11 ,f10 ,f01 ,f00 indicating the number of units identified by both sources, by the first but not the second source, by the second but not the first source and not identified by any of the two sources, respectively. However, f00 is unobserved so that the 2 × 2 table is incomplete and the Lincoln-Petersen estimator provides an estimate for f00 . In this paper, we consider a generalization of this situation for which one source provides not only a binary identification outcome but also a count outcome of how many times a unit has been identified. Using a truncated Poisson count model, truncating multiple identifications larger than two, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the Poisson parameter and, ultimately, of the population size. This estimator shows benefits, in comparison with Lincoln-Petersen's, in terms of bias and efficiency. It is possible to test the homogeneity assumption that is not testable in the Lincoln-Petersen framework. The approach is applied to surveillance data on syphilis from Izmir, Turkey. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

2011-01-01

1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

Methodology for developing life tables for sessile insects in the field using the Whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, in cotton as a model system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Life tables provide a means of measuring the schedules of birth and death from populations over time. They also can be used to quantify the sources and rates of mortality in populations, which has a variety of applications in ecology, including agricultural ecosystems. Horizontal, or cohort-based, l...

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Modelling the impact of vaccination on tuberculosis in badgers.

PubMed

Hardstaff, J L; Bulling, M T; Marion, G; Hutchings, M R; White, P C L

2013-07-01

Tuberculosis (TB) in livestock, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, persists in many countries. In Britain, efforts to control TB through the culling of badgers (Meles meles), the principal wildlife host, have so far been unsuccessful, and there is significant interest in vaccination of badgers as an alternative or complementary strategy [corrected]. Using a simulation model, we show that where TB is self-contained within the badger population and there are no external sources of infection, limited-duration vaccination at a high level of efficacy can reduce or even eradicate TB from the badger population. However, where sources of external infection persist, benefits in TB reduction in badgers can only be achieved by ongoing, annual vaccination. Vaccination is likely to be most effective as part of an integrated disease management strategy incorporating a number of different approaches across the entire host community.

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Matthew R.; Cornish, Neil J.; Littenberg, Tyson B.

2012-01-01

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Red nuggets grow inside-out: evidence from gravitational lensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldham, Lindsay; Auger, Matthew W.; Fassnacht, Christopher D.

Here, we present a new sample of strong gravitational lens systems where both the foreground lenses and background sources are early-type galaxies. Using imaging from Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Advanced Camera for Studies (ACS) and Keck/NIRC2, we model the surface brightness distributions and show that the sources form a distinct population of massive, compact galaxies at redshifts 0.4 ≲ z ≲ 0.7, lying systematically below the size–mass relation of the global elliptical galaxy population at those redshifts. These may therefore represent relics of high-redshift red nuggets or their partly evolved descendants. We exploit the magnifying effect of lensing to investigate themore » structural properties, stellar masses and stellar populations of these objects with a view to understanding their evolution. We model these objects parametrically and find that they generally require two Sérsic components to properly describe their light profiles, with one more spheroidal component alongside a more envelope-like component, which is slightly more extended though still compact. This is consistent with the hypothesis of the inside-out growth of these objects via minor mergers. Lastly, we also find that the sources can be characterized by red-to-blue colour gradients as a function of radius which are stronger at low redshift – indicative of ongoing accretion – but that their environments generally appear consistent with that of the general elliptical galaxy population, contrary to recent suggestions that these objects are pre-dominantly associated with clusters.« less

Red nuggets grow inside-out: evidence from gravitational lensing

DOE PAGES

Oldham, Lindsay; Auger, Matthew W.; Fassnacht, Christopher D.; ...

2016-11-03

Here, we present a new sample of strong gravitational lens systems where both the foreground lenses and background sources are early-type galaxies. Using imaging from Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/Advanced Camera for Studies (ACS) and Keck/NIRC2, we model the surface brightness distributions and show that the sources form a distinct population of massive, compact galaxies at redshifts 0.4 ≲ z ≲ 0.7, lying systematically below the size–mass relation of the global elliptical galaxy population at those redshifts. These may therefore represent relics of high-redshift red nuggets or their partly evolved descendants. We exploit the magnifying effect of lensing to investigate themore » structural properties, stellar masses and stellar populations of these objects with a view to understanding their evolution. We model these objects parametrically and find that they generally require two Sérsic components to properly describe their light profiles, with one more spheroidal component alongside a more envelope-like component, which is slightly more extended though still compact. This is consistent with the hypothesis of the inside-out growth of these objects via minor mergers. Lastly, we also find that the sources can be characterized by red-to-blue colour gradients as a function of radius which are stronger at low redshift – indicative of ongoing accretion – but that their environments generally appear consistent with that of the general elliptical galaxy population, contrary to recent suggestions that these objects are pre-dominantly associated with clusters.« less

Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

2003-01-01

We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.

Source partitioning of anthropogenic groundwater nitrogen in a mixed-use landscape, Tutuila, American Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuler, Christopher K.; El-Kadi, Aly I.; Dulai, Henrietta; Glenn, Craig R.; Fackrell, Joseph

2017-12-01

This study presents a modeling framework for quantifying human impacts and for partitioning the sources of contamination related to water quality in the mixed-use landscape of a small tropical volcanic island. On Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, production wells in the most populated region (the Tafuna-Leone Plain) produce most of the island's drinking water. However, much of this water has been deemed unsafe to drink since 2009. Tutuila has three predominant anthropogenic non-point-groundwater-pollution sources of concern: on-site disposal systems (OSDS), agricultural chemicals, and pig manure. These sources are broadly distributed throughout the landscape and are located near many drinking-water wells. Water quality analyses show a link between elevated levels of total dissolved groundwater nitrogen (TN) and areas with high non-point-source pollution density, suggesting that TN can be used as a tracer of groundwater contamination from these sources. The modeling framework used in this study integrates land-use information, hydrological data, and water quality analyses with nitrogen loading and transport models. The approach utilizes a numerical groundwater flow model, a nitrogen-loading model, and a multi-species contaminant transport model. Nitrogen from each source is modeled as an independent component in order to trace the impact from individual land-use activities. Model results are calibrated and validated with dissolved groundwater TN concentrations and inorganic δ15N values, respectively. Results indicate that OSDS contribute significantly more TN to Tutuila's aquifers than other sources, and thus should be prioritized in future water-quality management efforts.

Mineralogies and source regions of near-Earth asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Tasha L.; Burbine, Thomas H.; Bottke, William F.; Clark, John P.

2013-01-01

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) offer insight into a size range of objects that are not easily observed in the main asteroid belt. Previous studies on the diversity of the NEA population have relied primarily on modeling and statistical analysis to determine asteroid compositions. Olivine and pyroxene, the dominant minerals in most asteroids, have characteristic absorption features in the visible and near-infrared (VISNIR) wavelengths that can be used to determine their compositions and abundances. However, formulas previously used for deriving compositions do not work very well for ordinary chondrite assemblages. Because two-thirds of NEAs have ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters, it is essential to determine accurate mineralogies. Here we determine the band area ratios and Band I centers of 72 NEAs with visible and near-infrared spectra and use new calibrations to derive the mineralogies 47 of these NEAs with ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters. Our results indicate that the majority of NEAs have LL-chondrite mineralogies. This is consistent with results from previous studies but continues to be in conflict with the population of recovered ordinary chondrites, of which H chondrites are the most abundant. To look for potential correlations between asteroid size, composition, and source region, we use a dynamical model to determine the most probable source region of each NEA. Model results indicate that NEAs with LL chondrite mineralogies appear to be preferentially derived from the ν6 secular resonance. This supports the hypothesis that the Flora family, which lies near the ν6 resonance, is the source of the LL chondrites. With the exception of basaltic achondrites, NEAs with non-chondrite spectral parameters are slightly less likely to be derived from the ν6 resonance than NEAs with chondrite-like mineralogies. The population of NEAs with H, L, and LL chondrite mineralogies does not appear to be influenced by size, which would suggest that ordinary chondrites are not preferentially sourced from meter-sized objects due to Yarkovsky effect.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.

2014-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Patterns of ancestry and genetic diversity in reintroduced populations of the slimy sculpin: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, David D.; Miller, Loren M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2010-01-01

Reintroductions are a common approach for preserving intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, they may exacerbate the reduction in genetic diversity initially caused by population fragmentation because the effective population size of reintroduced populations is often smaller and reintroduced populations also tend to be more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically divergent sources for reintroduction purposes is a practice intended to increase genetic diversity. We documented the outcome of reintroductions from three mixed sources on the ancestral composition and genetic variation of a North American fish, the slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). We used microsatellite markers to evaluate allelic richness and heterozygosity in the reintroduced populations relative to computer simulated expectations. Sculpins in reintroduced populations exhibited higher levels of heterozygosity and allelic richness than any single source, but only slightly higher than the single most genetically diverse source population. Simulations intended to mimic an ideal scenario for maximizing genetic variation in the reintroduced populations also predicted increases, but they were only moderately greater than the most variable source population. We found that a single source contributed more than the other two sources at most reintroduction sites. We urge caution when choosing whether to mix source populations in reintroduction programs. Genetic characteristics of candidate source populations should be evaluated prior to reintroduction if feasible. When combined with knowledge of the degree of genetic distinction among sources, simulations may allow the genetic diversity benefits of mixing populations to be weighed against the risks of outbreeding depression in reintroduced and nearby populations.

Patterns of ancestry and genetic diversity in reintroduced populations of the slimy sculpin: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, D.D.; Miller, L.M.; Vondracek, B.

2010-01-01

Reintroductions are a common approach for preserving intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, they may exacerbate the reduction in genetic diversity initially caused by population fragmentation because the effective population size of reintroduced populations is often smaller and reintroduced populations also tend to be more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically divergent sources for reintroduction purposes is a practice intended to increase genetic diversity. We documented the outcome of reintroductions from three mixed sources on the ancestral composition and genetic variation of a North American fish, the slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). We used microsatellite markers to evaluate allelic richness and heterozygosity in the reintroduced populations relative to computer simulated expectations. Sculpins in reintroduced populations exhibited higher levels of heterozygosity and allelic richness than any single source, but only slightly higher than the single most genetically diverse source population. Simulations intended to mimic an ideal scenario for maximizing genetic variation in the reintroduced populations also predicted increases, but they were only moderately greater than the most variable source population. We found that a single source contributed more than the other two sources at most reintroduction sites. We urge caution when choosing whether to mix source populations in reintroduction programs. Genetic characteristics of candidate source populations should be evaluated prior to reintroduction if feasible. When combined with knowledge of the degree of genetic distinction among sources, simulations may allow the genetic diversity benefits of mixing populations to be weighed against the risks of outbreeding depression in reintroduced and nearby populations. ?? 2010 US Government.

21-cm signature of the first sources in the Universe: prospects of detection with SKA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghara, Raghunath; Choudhury, T. Roy; Datta, Kanan K.

2016-07-01

Currently several low-frequency experiments are being planned to study the nature of the first stars using the redshifted 21-cm signal from the cosmic dawn and Epoch of Reionization. Using a one-dimensional radiative transfer code, we model the 21-cm signal pattern around the early sources for different source models, I.e. the metal-free Population III (PopIII) stars, primordial galaxies consisting of Population II (PopII) stars, mini-QSOs and high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs). We investigate the detectability of these sources by comparing the 21-cm visibility signal with the system noise appropriate for a telescope like the SKA1-low. Upon integrating the visibility around a typical source over all baselines and over a frequency interval of 16 MHz, we find that it will be possible to make a ˜9σ detection of the isolated sources like PopII galaxies, mini-QSOs and HMXBs at z ˜ 15 with the SKA1-low in 1000 h. The exact value of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) will depend on the source properties, in particular on the mass and age of the source and the escape fraction of ionizing photons. The predicted SNR decreases with increasing redshift. We provide simple scaling laws to estimate the SNR for different values of the parameters which characterize the source and the surrounding medium. We also argue that it will be possible to achieve an SNR ˜9 even in the presence of the astrophysical foregrounds by subtracting out the frequency-independent component of the observed signal. These calculations will be useful in planning 21-cm observations to detect the first sources.

RAiSE II: resolved spectral evolution in radio AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Ross J.; Rogers, Jonathan G.; Shabala, Stanislav S.; Krause, Martin G. H.

2018-01-01

The active galactic nuclei (AGN) lobe radio luminosities modelled in hydrodynamical simulations and most analytical models do not address the redistribution of the electron energies due to adiabatic expansion, synchrotron radiation and inverse-Compton scattering of cosmic microwave background photons. We present a synchrotron emissivity model for resolved sources that includes a full treatment of the loss mechanisms spatially across the lobe, and apply it to a dynamical radio source model with known pressure and volume expansion rates. The bulk flow and dispersion of discrete electron packets is represented by tracer fields in hydrodynamical simulations; we show that the mixing of different aged electrons strongly affects the spectrum at each point of the radio map in high-powered Fanaroff & Riley type II (FR-II) sources. The inclusion of this mixing leads to a factor of a few discrepancy between the spectral age measured using impulsive injection models (e.g. JP model) and the dynamical age. The observable properties of radio sources are predicted to be strongly frequency dependent: FR-II lobes are expected to appear more elongated at higher frequencies, while jetted FR-I sources appear less extended. The emerging FR0 class of radio sources, comprising gigahertz peaked and compact steep spectrum sources, can potentially be explained by a population of low-powered FR-Is. The extended emission from such sources is shown to be undetectable for objects within a few orders of magnitude of the survey detection limit and to not contribute to the curvature of the radio spectral energy distribution.

Demographic variation, reintroduction, and persistence of an island duck (Anas laysanensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Weiser, Emily; Jamieson, Ian; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.

2013-01-01

Population variation in life history can be important for predicting successful establishment and persistence of reintroduced populations of endangered species. The Laysan duck (Anas laysanensis) is an endangered bird native to the Hawaiian Archipelago that was extirpated from most islands after the introduction of mammalian predators. Laysan ducks were restricted to a single remote island, Laysan Island (4.1 km2), for nearly 150 years. Since the species is not known to disperse between distant Hawaiian Islands today, 42 wild birds from Laysan Island were translocated to another mammalian predator-free low-lying atoll (Midway Atoll; 6.0 km2) to reduce extinction risk. We explored how variation in demography influences establishment and longer-term retention of genetic diversity (rare alleles) for reintroductions of this species. We observed dramatic differences in population growth between the source (λ = 1.18) and reintroduced (λ = 3.28) population. The number of eggs hatched at Midway Atoll was greater than at Laysan Island, however, we found no difference in hatching success (proportion of clutch hatched) between populations. Adult females produced 3 times as many fledglings per breeding year on Midway Atoll compared to Laysan Island. We estimated population abundance of both populations until 2010 and applied a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer density dependence, process variation, observation error, and carrying capacity for the Laysan Island and Midway Atoll populations. The carrying capacity from the Gompertz model for Midway Atoll (K = 883 ± 210 SD) was estimated to be greater than that of Laysan Island (K = 598 ± 76 SD). Translocations with small numbers of founders and no immigration can create population bottlenecks, leading to loss of genetic variation over time, and potentially reducing the reintroduced population's viability or its potential to serve as a source for future translocations. Therefore, we also assessed the probability of retaining rare alleles in an isolated reintroduced Laysan duck population using life history parameters observed from the Laysan Island and Midway Atoll populations; we concluded that additional founders are needed under scenarios using demographic estimates from both Laysan Island and Midway Atoll to retain either 90% or 95% of source population genetic diversity.

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Almeida, Luis; Chisholm, Rebecca; Clairambault, Jean

2016-06-08

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations, be it of genetic, epigenetic or stochastic origin, has been identified as a main source of resistance to drug treatments and a major source of therapeutic failures in cancers. The molecular mechanisms of drug resistance are partly understood at the single cell level (e.g., overexpression of ABC transporters or of detoxication enzymes), but poorly predictable in tumours, where they are hypothesised to rely on heterogeneity at the cell population scale, which is thus the right level to describe cancer growth and optimise its control by therapeutic strategies in the clinic. We review a fewmore » results from the biological literature on the subject, and from mathematical models that have been published to predict and control evolution towards drug resistance in cancer cell populations. We propose, based on the latter, optimisation strategies of combined treatments to limit emergence of drug resistance to cytotoxic drugs in cancer cell populations, in the monoclonal situation, which limited as it is still retains consistent features of cell population heterogeneity. The polyclonal situation, that may be understood as “bet hedging” of the tumour, thus protecting itself from different sources of drug insults, may lie beyond such strategies and will need further developments. In the monoclonal situation, we have designed an optimised therapeutic strategy relying on a scheduled combination of cytotoxic and cytostatic treatments that can be adapted to different situations of cancer treatments. Finally, we review arguments for biological theoretical frameworks proposed at different time and development scales, the so-called atavistic model (diachronic view relying on Darwinian genotype selection in the coursof billions of years) and the Waddington-like epigenetic landscape endowed with evolutionary quasi-potential (synchronic view relying on Lamarckian phenotype instruction of a given genome by reversible mechanisms), to represent evolution towards heterogeneity, possibly polyclonal, in cancer cell populations and propose innovative directions for therapeutic strategies based on such frameworks.« less

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Luis; Chisholm, Rebecca; Clairambault, Jean; Escargueil, Alexandre; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Lorz, Alexander; Trélat, Emmanuel

2016-06-01

Phenotype heterogeneity in cancer cell populations, be it of genetic, epigenetic or stochastic origin, has been identified as a main source of resistance to drug treatments and a major source of therapeutic failures in cancers. The molecular mechanisms of drug resistance are partly understood at the single cell level (e.g., overexpression of ABC transporters or of detoxication enzymes), but poorly predictable in tumours, where they are hypothesised to rely on heterogeneity at the cell population scale, which is thus the right level to describe cancer growth and optimise its control by therapeutic strategies in the clinic. We review a few results from the biological literature on the subject, and from mathematical models that have been published to predict and control evolution towards drug resistance in cancer cell populations. We propose, based on the latter, optimisation strategies of combined treatments to limit emergence of drug resistance to cytotoxic drugs in cancer cell populations, in the monoclonal situation, which limited as it is still retains consistent features of cell population heterogeneity. The polyclonal situation, that may be understood as "bet hedging" of the tumour, thus protecting itself from different sources of drug insults, may lie beyond such strategies and will need further developments. In the monoclonal situation, we have designed an optimised therapeutic strategy relying on a scheduled combination of cytotoxic and cytostatic treatments that can be adapted to different situations of cancer treatments. Finally, we review arguments for biological theoretical frameworks proposed at different time and development scales, the so-called atavistic model (diachronic view relying on Darwinian genotype selection in the coursof billions of years) and the Waddington-like epigenetic landscape endowed with evolutionary quasi-potential (synchronic view relying on Lamarckian phenotype instruction of a given genome by reversible mechanisms), to represent evolution towards heterogeneity, possibly polyclonal, in cancer cell populations and propose innovative directions for therapeutic strategies based on such frameworks.

Population dynamics of rice planthoppers, Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera, Delphacidae) in Central Vietnam and its effects on their spring migration to China.

PubMed

Hu, G; Lu, M-H; Tuan, H A; Liu, W-C; Xie, M-C; McInerney, C E; Zhai, B-P

2017-06-01

Rice planthopper (RPH) populations of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera periodically have erupted across Asia. Predicting RPH population dynamics and identifying their source areas are crucial for the management of these migratory pests in China, but the origins of the migrants to temperate and subtropical regions in China remains unclear. In particular, their early migration to China in March and April have not yet been explored due to a lack of research data available from potential source areas, Central Vietnam and Laos. In this study, we examined the population dynamics and migratory paths of N. lugens and S. furcifera in Vietnam and South China in 2012 and 2013. Trajectory modeling showed that in March and April in 2012 and 2013, RPH emigrated from source areas in Central Vietnam where rice was maturing to the Red River Delta and South China. Early migrants originated from Southern Central Vietnam (14-16°N), but later most were from Northern Central Vietnam (16-19°N). Analysis of meteorological and light-trap data from Hepu in April (1977-2013) using generalized linear models showed that immigration increased with precipitation in Southern Central Vietnam in January, but declined with precipitation in Northern Central Vietnam in January. These results determined that the RPH originate from overwintering areas in Central Vietnam, but not from southernmost areas of Vietnam. Winter precipitation, rather than temperature was the most important factor determining the number of RPH migrants. Based on their similar population dynamics and low population densities in Central Vietnam, we further speculated that RPH migrate to track ephemeral food resources whilst simultaneously avoiding predators. Migrations do not seem to be initiated by interspecific competition, overcrowding or host deterioration. Nevertheless, S. furcifera establishes populations earlier than N. lugens South China, perhaps to compensate for interspecific competition. We provide new information that could assist with forecasting outbreaks and implementing control measures against these migratory pests.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Doclet To Synthesize UML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, Matthew R.; Osborne, Richard N.

2005-01-01

The RoseDoclet computer program extends the capability of Java doclet software to automatically synthesize Unified Modeling Language (UML) content from Java language source code. [Doclets are Java-language programs that use the doclet application programming interface (API) to specify the content and format of the output of Javadoc. Javadoc is a program, originally designed to generate API documentation from Java source code, now also useful as an extensible engine for processing Java source code.] RoseDoclet takes advantage of Javadoc comments and tags already in the source code to produce a UML model of that code. RoseDoclet applies the doclet API to create a doclet passed to Javadoc. The Javadoc engine applies the doclet to the source code, emitting the output format specified by the doclet. RoseDoclet emits a Rose model file and populates it with fully documented packages, classes, methods, variables, and class diagrams identified in the source code. The way in which UML models are generated can be controlled by use of new Javadoc comment tags that RoseDoclet provides. The advantage of using RoseDoclet is that Javadoc documentation becomes leveraged for two purposes: documenting the as-built API and keeping the design documentation up to date.

A European model and case studies for aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

PubMed

Kennedy, Marc C; Glass, C Richard; Bokkers, Bas; Hart, Andy D M; Hamey, Paul Y; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; de Boer, Waldo J; van der Voet, Hilko; Garthwaite, David G; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Searches for point sources in the Galactic Center region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Mauro, Mattia; Fermi-LAT Collaboration

2017-01-01

Several groups have demonstrated the existence of an excess in the gamma-ray emission around the Galactic Center (GC) with respect to the predictions from a variety of Galactic Interstellar Emission Models (GIEMs) and point source catalogs. The origin of this excess, peaked at a few GeV, is still under debate. A possible interpretation is that it comes from a population of unresolved Millisecond Pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic bulge. We investigate the detection of point sources in the GC region using new tools which the Fermi-LAT Collaboration is developing in the context of searches for Dark Matter (DM) signals. These new tools perform very fast scans iteratively testing for additional point sources at each of the pixels of the region of interest. We show also how to discriminate between point sources and structural residuals from the GIEM. We apply these methods to the GC region considering different GIEMs and testing the DM and MSPs intepretations for the GC excess. Additionally, we create a list of promising MSP candidates that could represent the brightest sources of a MSP bulge population.

A simulation-based analytic model of radio galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardcastle, M. J.

2018-04-01

I derive and discuss a simple semi-analytical model of the evolution of powerful radio galaxies which is not based on assumptions of self-similar growth, but rather implements some insights about the dynamics and energetics of these systems derived from numerical simulations, and can be applied to arbitrary pressure/density profiles of the host environment. The model can qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce the source dynamics and synchrotron light curves derived from numerical modelling. Approximate corrections for radiative and adiabatic losses allow it to predict the evolution of radio spectral index and of inverse-Compton emission both for active and `remnant' sources after the jet has turned off. Code to implement the model is publicly available. Using a standard model with a light relativistic (electron-positron) jet, subequipartition magnetic fields, and a range of realistic group/cluster environments, I simulate populations of sources and show that the model can reproduce the range of properties of powerful radio sources as well as observed trends in the relationship between jet power and radio luminosity, and predicts their dependence on redshift and environment. I show that the distribution of source lifetimes has a significant effect on both the source length distribution and the fraction of remnant sources expected in observations, and so can in principle be constrained by observations. The remnant fraction is expected to be low even at low redshift and low observing frequency due to the rapid luminosity evolution of remnants, and to tend rapidly to zero at high redshift due to inverse-Compton losses.

Statistical physics of vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Bauch, Chris T.; Bhattacharyya, Samit; d'Onofrio, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero; Perc, Matjaž; Perra, Nicola; Salathé, Marcel; Zhao, Dawei

2016-12-01

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination-one of the most important preventive measures of modern times-is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research.

[Comparison between administrative and clinical databases in the evaluation of cardiac surgery performance].

PubMed

Rosato, Stefano; D'Errigo, Paola; Badoni, Gabriella; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo A; Seccareccia, Fulvia

2008-08-01

The availability of two contemporary sources of information about coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) interventions, allowed 1) to verify the feasibility of performing outcome evaluation studies using administrative data sources, and 2) to compare hospital performance obtainable using the CABG Project clinical database with hospital performance derived from the use of current administrative data. Interventions recorded in the CABG Project were linked to the hospital discharge record (HDR) administrative database. Only the linked records were considered for subsequent analyses (46% of the total CABG Project). A new selected population "clinical card-HDR" was then defined. Two independent risk-adjustment models were applied, each of them using information derived from one of the two different sources. Then, HDR information was supplemented with some patient preoperative conditions from the CABG clinical database. The two models were compared in terms of their adaptability to data. Hospital performances identified by the two different models and significantly different from the mean was compared. In only 4 of the 13 hospitals considered for analysis, the results obtained using the HDR model did not completely overlap with those obtained by the CABG model. When comparing statistical parameters of the HDR model and the HDR model + patient preoperative conditions, the latter showed the best adaptability to data. In this "clinical card-HDR" population, hospital performance assessment obtained using information from the clinical database is similar to that derived from the use of current administrative data. However, when risk-adjustment models built on administrative databases are supplemented with a few clinical variables, their statistical parameters improve and hospital performance assessment becomes more accurate.

GENETIC STRUCTURE OF TRIATOMA INFESTANS POPULATIONS IN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, NORTHERN ARGENTINA

PubMed Central

Marcet, PL; Mora, MS; Cutrera, AP; Jones, L; Gürtler, RE; Kitron, U; Dotson, EM

2008-01-01

To gain an understanding of the genetic structure and dispersal dynamics of T. infestans populations, we analyzed the multilocus genotype of 10 microsatellite loci for 352 T. infestans collected in 21 houses of 11 rural communities in October 2002. Genetic structure was analyzed at the community and house compound levels. Analysis revealed that vector control actions affected the genetic structure of T. infestans populations. Bug populations from communities under sustained vector control (core area) were highly structured and genetic differentiation between neighboring house compounds was significant. In contrast, bug populations from communities with sporadic vector control actions were more homogeneous and lacked defined genetic clusters. Genetic differentiation between population pairs did not fit a model of isolation by distance at the microgeographical level. Evidence consistent with flight or walking bug dispersal was detected within and among communities, dispersal was more female-biased in the core area and results suggested that houses received immigrants from more than one source. Putative sources and mechanisms of re-infestation are described. These data may be use to design improved vector control strategies PMID:18773972

Space-time models for a panzootic in bats, with a focus on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Knowledge of current trends of quickly spreading infectious wildlife diseases is vital to efficient and effective management. We developed space-time mixed-effects logistic regressions to characterize a disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS), quickly spreading among endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in eastern North America. Our goal was to calculate and map the risk probability faced by uninfected colonies of hibernating Indiana bats. Model covariates included annual distance from and direction to nearest sources of infection, geolocational information, size of the Indiana bat populations within each wintering population, and total annual size of populations known or suspected to be affected by WNS. We considered temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal formulae through the use of random effects for year, complex (a collection of interacting hibernacula), and yearxcomplex. Since first documented in 2006, WNS has spread across much of the range of the Indiana bat. No sizeable wintering population now occurs outside of the migrational distance of an infected source. Annual rates of newly affected wintering Indiana bat populations between winter 2007 to 2008 and 2010 to 2011 were 4, 6, 8, and 12%; this rate increased each year at a rate of 3%. If this increasing rate of newly affected populations continues, all wintering populations may be affected by 2016. Our models indicated the probability of a wintering population exhibiting infection was a linear function of proximity to affected Indiana bat populations and size of the at-risk population. Geographic location was also important, suggesting broad-scale influences. For every 50-km increase in distance from a WNS-affected population, risk of disease declined by 6% (95% CI=5.2-5.7%); for every increase of 1,000 Indiana bats, there was an 8% (95% CI = 1-21%) increase in disease risk. The increasing rate of infection seems to be associated with the movement of this disease into the core of the Indiana bat range. Our spatially explicit estimates of disease risk may aid managers in prioritizing surveillance and management for wintering populations of Indiana bats and help understand the risk faced by other hibernating bat species.

Modeling the nucleus and jets of comet 81P/Wild 2 based on the Stardust encounter data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Zdenek; Brownlee, Donald E.; Economou, Thanasis E.; Tuzzolino, Anthony J.; Green, Simon F.

2004-01-01

We interpret the nucleus properties and jet activity from the Stardust spacecraft imaging and the onboard dust monitoring system data. Triangulation of 20 jets shows that 2 emanate from the nucleus dark side and 16 emanate from sources that are on slopes where the Sun's elevation is greater than predicted from the fitted triaxial ellipsoid. Seven sources, including five in the Mayo depression, coincide with relatively bright surface spots. Fitting the imaged jets, the spikelike temporal distribution of dust impacts indicates that the spacecraft crossed thin, densely populated sheets of particulate ejecta extending from small sources on the rotating nucleus, consistent with an emission cone model.

Discrete X-Ray Source Populations and Star-Formation History in Nearby Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zezas, Andreas

2004-01-01

This program aims in understanding the connection between the discrete X-ray source populations observed in nearby galaxies and the history of star-formation in these galaxies. The ultimate goal is to use this knowledge in order to constrain X-ray binary evolution channels. For this reason although the program is primarily observational it has a significant modeling component. During the first year of this study we focused on the definition of a pilot sample of galaxies with well know star-formation histories. A small part of this sample has already been observed and we performed initial analysis of the data. However, the majority of the objects in our sample either have not been observed at all, or the detection limit of the existing observations is not low enough to probe the bulk of their young X-ray binary populations. For this reason we successfully proposed for additional Chandra observations of three targets in Cycle-5. These observations are currently being performed. The analysis of the (limited) archival data for this sample indicated that the X-ray luminosity functions (XLF) of the discrete sources in these galaxies may not have the same shape as is widely suggested. However, any solid conclusions are hampered by the small number of detected sources. For this reason during the second year of this study, we will try to extend the sample in order to include more objects in each evolutionary stage. In addition we are completing the analysis of the Chandra monitoring observations of the Antennae galaxies. The results from this work, apart from important clues on the nature of the most luminous sources (Ultra-luminous X-ray sources; ULXs) provide evidence that source spectral and/or temporal variability does not significantly affect the shape of their X-ray luminosity functions. This is particularly important for comparisons between the XLFs of different galaxies and comparisons with predictions from theoretical models. Results from this work have been presented in several conferences. Refereed journal papers presenting these conclusions are currently in preparation. An important part of this study is the Chandra survey of the Small Magellanic Cloud, our second nearest star- forming galaxy. So far we have been awarded 5 Chandra observations of the central youngest part of the galaxy. These observations will help to study the very faint end of the young X-ray binary populations which is not possible to probe in more distant objects. Results from this study have been presented in several conferences and two papers are in preparation. In addition during year-2 we are planning of undertaking the task of identifying optical counterparts to the X-ray sources, which will help us to isolate interlopers (sources not associated with the SMC) and classify the X-ray binaries which are found to be associated with the SMC. In the theoretical front, the Star-Track X-ray binary population synthesis code which will be used for the modeling of the X-ray binary populations (led by co-I V. Kalogera and C. Belczynski), is complete. A first test using the XLF of the star-forming galaxy NGC-1569 showed remarkable agreement between the observed and the modeled XLF. These results are presented in an ApJ. Letters paper (Belczynski et al, 2004, 601, 147). During year-2 of this study we are planning of performing a parameter study in order to investigate which parameters are most important for the shape of the XLF. In addition we will perform comparisons with observations of other galaxies from our sample as they become available.

Early establishment response of different Pinus nigra ssp. salzmanii seed sources on contrasting environments: Implications for future reforestation programs and assisted population migration.

PubMed

Taïbi, K; del Campo, A D; Aguado, A; Mulet, J M

2016-04-15

Forest restoration constitutes an important issue within adaptive environmental management for climate change at global scale. However, effective implementation of these programs can only be achieved by revising current seed transfer guidelines, as they lack inherent spatial and temporal dynamics associated with climate change. In this sense, provenance trials may provide key information on the relative performance of different populations and/or genotypes under changing ecological conditions. This study addresses a methodological approach to evaluate early plantation performance and the consequent phenotypic plasticity and the pattern of the adaptation of different seed sources in contrasting environments. To this end, six seed sources of Salzmann pine were tested at three contrasting trial sites testing a hypothetical assisted population migration. Adaptation at each site was assessed through Joint Regression and Additive Main effect and Multiplication Interaction (AMMI) models. Most of the observed variation was attributed to the environment (above 90% for all traits), even so genotype and genotype by environment interaction (GxE) were significant. Seedlings out-planted under better site conditions did not differ in survival but in height growth. However, on sites with higher constraints, survival differed among seed sources and diameter growth was high. The adaptation analyses (AMMI) indicated that the cold-continental seed source 'Soria' performed as a generalist seed source, whereas 'Cordilleras Béticas', the southernmost seed source, was more adapted to harsh environments (frost and drought) in terms of survival. The results supported partially the hypothesis that assisted migration of seed sources makes sense within limited transfer distances, and this was reinforced by the GxE results. The present study could be valuable to address adaptive transfer of seedings in ecological restoration and to determine the suitable seed sources for reforestation programs and assisted population migration under climatic changes. The reported results are based on 3 years' data and need to be considered in this context. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exact Solution of Population Redistributions in a Migration Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xue-Wen; Zhang, Li-Jie; Yang, Guo-Hong; Xu, Xin-Jian

2013-10-01

We study a migration model, in which individuals migrate from one community to another. The choices of the source community i and the destination one j are proportional to some power of the population of i (kαi) and j (kβj), respectively. Both analytical calculation and numerical simulation show that the population distribution of communities in stationary states is determined by the parameters α and β. The distribution is widely homogeneous with a characteristic size if α > β. Whereas, for α < β, the distribution is highly heterogeneous with the emergence of condensing phenomenon. Between the two regimes, α = β, the distribution gradually shifts from the nonmonotonous (α < 0) to scale-free (α > 0).

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, T.K.; Haroldson, M.A.; Murphy, K.M.; Buotte, P.C.; Hornocker, M.G.; Quigley, H.B.

2011-01-01

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy.

Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae using the proximal femur.

PubMed

Colman, K L; Janssen, M C L; Stull, K E; van Rijn, R R; Oostra, R J; de Boer, H H; van der Merwe, A E

2018-05-01

Sex estimation techniques are frequently applied in forensic anthropological analyses of unidentified human skeletal remains. While morphological sex estimation methods are able to endure population differences, the classification accuracy of metric sex estimation methods are population-specific. No metric sex estimation method currently exists for the Dutch population. The purpose of this study is to create Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae by means of osteometric analyses of the proximal femur. Since the Netherlands lacks a representative contemporary skeletal reference population, 2D plane reconstructions, derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) data, were used as an alternative source for a representative reference sample. The first part of this study assesses the intra- and inter-observer error, or reliability, of twelve measurements of the proximal femur. The technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated using 26 dry adult femora. In addition, the agreement, or accuracy, between the dry bone and CT-based measurements was determined by percent agreement. Only reliable and accurate measurements were retained for the logistic regression sex estimation formulae; a training set (n=86) was used to create the models while an independent testing set (n=28) was used to validate the models. Due to high levels of multicollinearity, only single variable models were created. Cross-validated classification accuracies ranged from 86% to 92%. The high cross-validated classification accuracies indicate that the developed formulae can contribute to the biological profile and specifically in sex estimation of unidentified human skeletal remains in the Netherlands. Furthermore, the results indicate that clinical CT data can be a valuable alternative source of data when representative skeletal collections are unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: Habitat-based approach for endangered Greater Sage-Grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Boyce, Mark S.

2007-01-01

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Future of family support: Projected living arrangements and income sources of older people in Hong Kong up to 2030.

PubMed

Ng, Kok-Hoe

2016-06-01

The study aims to project future trends in living arrangements and access to children's cash contributions and market income sources among older people in Hong Kong. A cell-based model was constructed by combining available population projections, labour force projections, an extrapolation of the historical trend in living arrangements based on national survey datasets and a regression model on income sources. Under certain assumptions, the proportion of older people living with their children may decline from 59 to 48% during 2006-2030. Although access to market income sources may improve slightly, up to 20% of older people may have no access to either children's financial support or market income sources, and will not live with their children by 2030. Family support is expected to contract in the next two decades. Public pensions should be expanded to protect financially vulnerable older people. © 2015 AJA Inc.

An improved export coefficient model to estimate non-point source phosphorus pollution risks under complex precipitation and terrain conditions.

PubMed

Cheng, Xian; Chen, Liding; Sun, Ranhao; Jing, Yongcai

2018-05-15

To control non-point source (NPS) pollution, it is important to estimate NPS pollution exports and identify sources of pollution. Precipitation and terrain have large impacts on the export and transport of NPS pollutants. We established an improved export coefficient model (IECM) to estimate the amount of agricultural and rural NPS total phosphorus (TP) exported from the Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in northern China. The TP concentrations of rivers from 35 selected catchments in the LRB were used to test the model's explanation capacity and accuracy. The simulation results showed that, in 2013, the average TP export was 57.20 t at the catchment scale. The mean TP export intensity in the LRB was 289.40 kg/km 2 , which was much higher than those of other basins in China. In the LRB topographic regions, the TP export intensity was the highest in the south Yanshan Mountains and was followed by the plain area, the north Yanshan Mountains, and the Bashang Plateau. Among the three pollution categories, the contribution ratios to TP export were, from high to low, the rural population (59.44%), livestock husbandry (22.24%), and land-use types (18.32%). Among all ten pollution sources, the contribution ratios from the rural population (59.44%), pigs (14.40%), and arable land (10.52%) ranked as the top three sources. This study provides information that decision makers and planners can use to develop sustainable measures for the prevention and control of NPS pollution in semi-arid regions.

July 2013 MOVES Model Review Work Group Meeting Materials

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentations from the Mobile Sources Technical Review Subcommittee (MSTRS) meeting on July 9th of 2013 include MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) updates; data regarding vehicle populations and activity, PM speciation, and hazardous air pollutants.

September 2016 MOVES Model Review Work Group Meeting Materials

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentations from the Mobile Sources Technical Review Subcommittee (MSTRS) meeting on Sep. 14th of 2016 include MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) updates; data regarding vehicle populations and activity, PM speciation, and hazardous air pollutants.

The X-Ray Luminosity Functions of Field Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries in Early-Type Galaxies: Evidence for a Stellar Age Dependence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehmer, B. D.; Berkeley, M.; Zezas, A.; Alexander, D. M.; Basu-Zych, A.; Bauer, F. E.; Brandt, W. N.; Fragos, T.; Hornschemeier, A. E.; Kalogera, V.;

Spectral Models of Neutron Star Magnetospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romani, Roger W.

1997-01-01

We revisit the association of unidentified Galactic plane EGRET sources with tracers of recent massive star formation and death. Up-to-date catalogs of OB associations, SNR's, young pulsars, H2 regions and young open clusters were used in finding counterparts for a recent list of EGRET sources. It has been argued for some time that EGRET source positions are correlated with SNR's and OB associations as a class; we extend such analyses by finding additional counterparts and assessing the probability of individual source identifications. Among the several scenarios relating EGRET sources to massive stars, we focus on young neutron stars as the origin of the gamma-ray emission. The characteristics of the candidate identifications are compared to the known gamma-ray pulsar sample and to detailed Galactic population syntheses using our outer gap pulsar model of gamma-ray emission. Both the spatial distribution and luminosity function of the candidates are in good agreement with the model predictions; we infer that young pulsars can account for the bulk of the excess low latitude EGRET sources. We show that with this identification, the gamma-ray point sources provide an important new window into the history of recent massive star death in the solar neighborhood.

Inferring source attribution from a multiyear multisource data set of Salmonella in Minnesota.

PubMed

Ahlstrom, C; Muellner, P; Spencer, S E F; Hong, S; Saupe, A; Rovira, A; Hedberg, C; Perez, A; Muellner, U; Alvarez, J

2017-12-01

Salmonella enterica is a global health concern because of its widespread association with foodborne illness. Bayesian models have been developed to attribute the burden of human salmonellosis to specific sources with the ultimate objective of prioritizing intervention strategies. Important considerations of source attribution models include the evaluation of the quality of input data, assessment of whether attribution results logically reflect the data trends and identification of patterns within the data that might explain the detailed contribution of different sources to the disease burden. Here, more than 12,000 non-typhoidal Salmonella isolates from human, bovine, porcine, chicken and turkey sources that originated in Minnesota were analysed. A modified Bayesian source attribution model (available in a dedicated R package), accounting for non-sampled sources of infection, attributed 4,672 human cases to sources assessed here. Most (60%) cases were attributed to chicken, although there was a spike in cases attributed to a non-sampled source in the second half of the study period. Molecular epidemiological analysis methods were used to supplement risk modelling, and a visual attribution application was developed to facilitate data exploration and comprehension of the large multiyear data set assessed here. A large amount of within-source diversity and low similarity between sources was observed, and visual exploration of data provided clues into variations driving the attribution modelling results. Results from this pillared approach provided first attribution estimates for Salmonella in Minnesota and offer an understanding of current data gaps as well as key pathogen population features, such as serotype frequency, similarity and diversity across the sources. Results here will be used to inform policy and management strategies ultimately intended to prevent and control Salmonella infection in the state. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Dynamics of Population, Built-up Areas and their Evolving Associations in Gridded Population across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, F. R.; Gaughan, A. E.; Tatem, A. J.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Nieves, J. J.; Reed, P.

2017-12-01

Gridded population data is commonly used to understand the `now' of hazard risk and mitigation management, health and disease modelling, and global change-, economic-, environmental-, and sustainability-related research. But to understand how human population change at local to global scales influences and is influenced by environmental changes requires novel ways of treating data and statistically describing associations of measured population counts with associated covariates. One of the most critical components in such gridded estimates is the relationship between built-up areas and population located in these areas. This relationship is rarely static and accurately estimating changes in built-areas through time and the changing human population around them is critical when applying gridded population datasets in studies of other environmental change. The research presented here discusses these issues in the context of multitemporal, gridded population data, using new technologies and sources of remotely-sensed and modeled built-up areas. We discuss applications of these data in environmental analyses and intercomparisons with other such data across scales.

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded inmore » the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.« less

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

PubMed

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Meteorological effects on the levels of fecal indicator bacteria in an urban stream: a modeling approach.

PubMed

Cho, Kyung Hwa; Cha, Sung Min; Kang, Joo-Hyon; Lee, Seung Won; Park, Yongeun; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha

2010-04-01

Gwangju Creek (GJC) in Korea, which drains a highly urbanized watershed, has suffered from substantial fecal contamination, thereby limiting the beneficial use of the water in addition to threatening public health. In this study, to quantitatively estimate the sinks and sources of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in GJC under varying meteorological conditions, two FIB (i.e., Escherichia coli and enterococci bacteria) were monitored hourly for 24h periods during both wet and dry weather conditions at four sites along GJC, and the collected data was subsequently used to develop a spatiotemporal FIB prediction model. The monitoring data revealed that storm washoff and irradiational die-off by sunlight are the two key processes controlling FIB populations in wet and dry weather, respectively. FIB populations significantly increased during precipitation, with greater concentrations occurring at higher rainfall intensity. During dry weather, FIB populations decreased in the presence of sunlight in daytime but quickly recovered at nighttime due to continuous point-source inputs. In this way, the contributions of the key processes (i.e., irradiational die-off by sunlight, settling, storm washoff, and resuspension) to the FIB levels in GJC under different meteorological conditions were quantitatively estimated using the developed model. The modeling results showed that the die-off by sunlight is the major sink of FIB during the daytime in dry weather with a minor contribution from the settling process. During wet weather, storm washoff and resuspension are equally important processes that are responsible for the substantial increase of FIB populations. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-ray Binaries in the Central Region of M31

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudolyubov, Sergey P.; Priedhorsky, W. C.; Cordova, F. A.

2006-09-01

We present the results of the systematic survey of X-ray sources in the central region of M31 using the data of XMM-Newton observations. The spectral properties and variability of 124 bright X-ray sources were studied in detail. We found that more than 80% of sources observed in two or more observations show significant variability on the time scales of days to years. At least 50% of the sources in our sample are spectrally variable. The fraction of variable sources in our survey is much higher than previously reported from Chandra survey of M31, and is remarkably close to the fraction of variable sources found in M31 globular cluster X-ray source population. We present spectral distribution of M31 X-ray sources, based on the spectral fitting with a power law model. The distribution of spectral photon index has two main peaks at 1.8 and 2.3, and shows clear evolution with source luminosity. Based on the similarity of the properties of M31 X-ray sources and their Galactic counterparts, we expect most of X-ray sources in our sample to be accreting binary systems with neutron star and black hole primaries. Combining the results of X-ray analysis (X-ray spectra, hardness-luminosity diagrams and variability) with available data at other wavelengths, we explore the possibility of distinguishing between bright neutron star and black hole binary systems, and identify 7% and 25% of sources in our sample as a probable black hole and neutron star candidates. Finally, we compare the M31 X-ray source population to the source populations of normal galaxies of different morphological type. Support for this work was provided through NASA Grant NAG5-12390. Part of this work was done during a summer workshop ``Revealing Black Holes'' at the Aspen Center for Physics, S. T. is grateful to the Center for their hospitality.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

Deep 3 GHz number counts from a P(D) fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernstrom, T.; Scott, Douglas; Wall, J. V.; Condon, J. J.; Cotton, W. D.; Fomalont, E. B.; Kellermann, K. I.; Miller, N.; Perley, R. A.

2014-05-01

Radio source counts constrain galaxy populations and evolution, as well as the global star formation history. However, there is considerable disagreement among the published 1.4-GHz source counts below 100 μJy. Here, we present a statistical method for estimating the μJy and even sub-μJy source count using new deep wide-band 3-GHz data in the Lockman Hole from the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. We analysed the confusion amplitude distribution P(D), which provides a fresh approach in the form of a more robust model, with a comprehensive error analysis. We tested this method on a large-scale simulation, incorporating clustering and finite source sizes. We discuss in detail our statistical methods for fitting using Markov chain Monte Carlo, handling correlations, and systematic errors from the use of wide-band radio interferometric data. We demonstrated that the source count can be constrained down to 50 nJy, a factor of 20 below the rms confusion. We found the differential source count near 10 μJy to have a slope of -1.7, decreasing to about -1.4 at fainter flux densities. At 3 GHz, the rms confusion in an 8-arcsec full width at half-maximum beam is ˜ 1.2 μJy beam-1, and a radio background temperature ˜14 mK. Our counts are broadly consistent with published evolutionary models. With these results, we were also able to constrain the peak of the Euclidean normalized differential source count of any possible new radio populations that would contribute to the cosmic radio background down to 50 nJy.

Deep 20-GHz survey of the Chandra Deep Field South and SDSS Stripe 82: source catalogue and spectral properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzen, Thomas M. O.; Sadler, Elaine M.; Chhetri, Rajan; Ekers, Ronald D.; Mahony, Elizabeth K.; Murphy, Tara; Norris, Ray P.; Waldram, Elizabeth M.; Whittam, Imogen H.

2014-04-01

We present a source catalogue and first results from a deep, blind radio survey carried out at 20 GHz with the Australia Telescope Compact Array, with follow-up observations at 5.5, 9 and 18 GHz. The Australia Telescope 20 GHz (AT20G) deep pilot survey covers a total area of 5 deg2 in the Chandra Deep Field South and in Stripe 82 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We estimate the survey to be 90 per cent complete above 2.5 mJy. Of the 85 sources detected, 55 per cent have steep spectra (α _{1.4}^{20} < -0.5) and 45 per cent have flat or inverted spectra (α _{1.4}^{20} ≥ -0.5). The steep-spectrum sources tend to have single power-law spectra between 1.4 and 18 GHz, while the spectral indices of the flat- or inverted-spectrum sources tend to steepen with frequency. Among the 18 inverted-spectrum (α _{1.4}^{20} ≥ 0.0) sources, 10 have clearly defined peaks in their spectra with α _{1.4}^{5.5} > 0.15 and α 9^{18} < -0.15. On a 3-yr time-scale, at least 10 sources varied by more than 15 per cent at 20 GHz, showing that variability is still common at the low flux densities probed by the AT20G-deep pilot survey. We find a strong and puzzling shift in the typical spectral index of the 15-20-GHz source population when combining data from the AT20G, Ninth Cambridge and Tenth Cambridge surveys: there is a shift towards a steeper-spectrum population when going from ˜1 Jy to ˜5 mJy, which is followed by a shift back towards a flatter-spectrum population below ˜5 mJy. The 5-GHz source-count model by Jackson & Wall, which only includes contributions from FRI and FRII sources, and star-forming galaxies, does not reproduce the observed flattening of the flat-spectrum counts below ˜5 mJy. It is therefore possible that another population of sources is contributing to this effect.

Data-model fusion to better understand emerging pathogens and improve infectious disease forecasting.

PubMed

LaDeau, Shannon L; Glass, Gregory E; Hobbs, N Thompson; Latimer, Andrew; Ostfeld, Richard S

2011-07-01

Ecologists worldwide are challenged to contribute solutions to urgent and pressing environmental problems by forecasting how populations, communities, and ecosystems will respond to global change. Rising to this challenge requires organizing ecological information derived from diverse sources and formally assimilating data with models of ecological processes. The study of infectious disease has depended on strategies for integrating patterns of observed disease incidence with mechanistic process models since John Snow first mapped cholera cases around a London water pump in 1854. Still, zoonotic and vector-borne diseases increasingly affect human populations, and methods used to successfully characterize directly transmitted diseases are often insufficient. We use four case studies to demonstrate that advances in disease forecasting require better understanding of zoonotic host and vector populations, as well of the dynamics that facilitate pathogen amplification and disease spillover into humans. In each case study, this goal is complicated by limited data, spatiotemporal variability in pathogen transmission and impact, and often, insufficient biological understanding. We present a conceptual framework for data-model fusion in infectious disease research that addresses these fundamental challenges using a hierarchical state-space structure to (1) integrate multiple data sources and spatial scales to inform latent parameters, (2) partition uncertainty in process and observation models, and (3) explicitly build upon existing ecological and epidemiological understanding. Given the constraints inherent in the study of infectious disease and the urgent need for progress, fusion of data and expertise via this type of conceptual framework should prove an indispensable tool.

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Lane, Emily; Gillibrand, Philip

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

Local infestation or long-distance migration? The seasonal recolonization of dairy farms by Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) in south central Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Beresford, D V; Sutcliffe, J F

2009-04-01

Stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) populations in south central Ontario, Canada, first occur on dairy farms in late spring, grow exponentially throughout the summer, and are frozen back each autumn. We examined the extent of overwinter persistence on 22 dairy farms in a 55- by 60-km region north of Lake Ontario that spans four climatic zones. Our overwintering sampling of larval habitat identified three farms located in the southern section of the study region as potential overwintering refugia. Using sticky trap catches to identify the timing of first spring appearance at each farm, we then tested two models of how local farm populations are reestablished annually: 1) stable flies disperse from local climatic refuges and colonize neighboring farms (the local source model); and 2) stable flies are carried into the study region by frontal weather systems (the distant source model). The timing of when stable flies first occurred at these farms supported a local source of dispersing colonists from a small proportion of local refuge farms. We discuss our results in terms of how yearly fluctuation in climate would affect refuge farm density in the region and how this, in turn, would shift the recolonization dynamic. Implications for controlling stable flies also are discussed.

Stimulation of angiogenesis, neurogenesis and regeneration by side population cells from dental pulp.

PubMed

Ishizaka, Ryo; Hayashi, Yuki; Iohara, Koichiro; Sugiyama, Masahiko; Murakami, Masashi; Yamamoto, Tsubasa; Fukuta, Osamu; Nakashima, Misako

2013-03-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been used for cell therapy in various experimental disease models. However, the regenerative potential of MSCs from different tissue sources and the influence of the tissue niche have not been investigated. In this study, we compared the regenerative potential of dental pulp, bone marrow and adipose tissue-derived CD31(-) side population (SP) cells isolated from an individual porcine source. Pulp CD31(-) SP cells expressed the highest levels of angiogenic/neurotrophic factors and had the highest migration activity. Conditioned medium from pulp CD31(-) SP cells produced potent anti-apoptotic activity and neurite outgrowth, compared to those from bone marrow and adipose CD31(-) SP cells. Transplantation of pulp CD31(-) SP cells in a mouse hindlimb ischemia model produced higher blood flow and capillary density than transplantation of bone marrow and adipose CD31(-) SP cells. Motor function recovery and infarct size reduction were greater with pulp CD31(-) SP cells. Pulp CD31(-) SP cells induced maximal angiogenesis, neurogenesis and pulp regeneration in ectopic transplantation models compared to other tissue sources. These results demonstrate that pulp stem cells have higher angiogenic, neurogenic and regenerative potential and may therefore be superior to bone marrow and adipose stem cells for cell therapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

2016-04-01

Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

Higher Education in California: New Goals for the Master Plan. Technical Appendices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Hans

2010-01-01

To determine new eligibility goals for California, the author and his colleagues developed a student flow model that projects student enrollment and degrees awarded for each year from 2005 to 2025. To develop the model, they first developed population projections for the state. They also used a plethora of data sources to identify current trends…

KINETICS OF LOW SOURCE REACTOR STARTUPS. PART I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurwitz, H. Jr.; MacMillan, D.B.; Smith, J.H.

1962-06-01

Statistical fluctuntions of neutron populations in reactors are analyzed by means of an approximate theoretical model. Development of the model is given in detail; also included are extensive numerical results derived from its application to systems with time-dependent reactivity, namely, a reactor during start-up. The special relationships of fluctuations to safety considerations are discussed. (auth)

MODELING THE RESPONSE OF FISH POPULATIONS TO EUTROPHICATION

EPA Science Inventory

Eutrophication resulting from nonpoint source pollution is one of the largest environmental problems in lakes and reservoirs around the world. Two characteristics of eutrophication, decreased dissolved oxygen and increased concentration of ammonia, are known to affect fishes, yet...

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability

EPA Science Inventory

We incorporate inter-individual variability, including variability across demographic subgroups, into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of...

MODELING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO OUTDOOR SOURCES OF HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate assessment of human exposures is an important part of environmental health effects research. However, most air pollution epidemiology studies rely upon imperfect surrogates of personal exposures, such as information based on available central-site outdoor concentration ...

Modeling intraspecific adaptation of Abies sachalinensis to local altitude and responses to global warming, based on a 36-year reciprocal transplant experiment.

PubMed

Ishizuka, Wataru; Goto, Susumu

2012-04-01

Intraspecific adaptation in Abies sachalinensis was examined using models based on long-term monitoring data gathered during a reciprocal transplant experiment with eight seed source populations and six transplantation sites along an altitudinal gradient. The consequence of local adaptation was evaluated by testing the home-site advantage for upslope and downslope transplants at five ages. The populations' fitness-linked trait was set as their productivity (tree height × survival rate) at each age. The effects of global warming were evaluated on the basis of the 36-year performance of downslope transplants. Evidence was found for adaptive genetic variation affecting both height and survival from an early age. Increasing the distance between seed source and planting site significantly reduced productivity for both upslope and downslope transplantation, demonstrating the existence of a significant home-site advantage. The decrease in productivity was most distinct for upslope transplantations, indicating strong local adaptation to high altitudes. Global warming is predicted to increase the productivity of high-altitude populations. However, owing to their existing local adaptation, all tested populations exhibited lower productivity under warming than demes that were optimal for the new climate. These negative predictions should be considered when planning the management of locally adapted plant species such as A. sachalinensis.

An extended galactic population of low-luminosity x-ray sources (CVs?) and the diffuse x-ray background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maoz, Eyal; Grindlay, Jonathan E.

1995-01-01

The incompatibility of the properties of the X-ray background (XRB) with active galactic nuclei (AGNs) contributing approximately greater than 60% at energies of a few keV has often been interpreted as being due to a substantial contribution of a new population of yet unrecognized X-ray sources. The existence of such population has been recently suggested also by an analysis of very deep ROSAT observations which revealed a considerable excess of faint X-ray sources over that expected from QSO evolution models, and that the average spectrum of the resolved sources becomes harder with decreasing flux limit. These sources could be extragalactic in origin, but if they make a substantial contribution to the XRB then they must exhibit much weaker clustering than galaxies or QSOs in order to be consistent with the stringent constraints on source clustering imposed by autocorrelation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We investigate the possibility that the indicated new population of X-ray sources is Galactic in origin. Examining spherical halo and thick disk distributions, we derive the allowed properties of such populations which would resolve the discrepancy found in the number counts of faint sources and be consistent with observational constraints on the total background intensity, the XRB anisotropy, the number of unidentified bright sources, the Galaxy's total X-ray luminosity, and with the results of fluctuation analyses of the unresolved XRB. We find that a flattened Galactic halo (or a thick disk) distribution with a scale height of a few kpc is consistent with all the above requirements. The typical X-ray luminosity of the sources is approximately equal to 10(exp 30-31)ergs/s in the 0.5-2 keV band, the number density of sources in the solar vicinity is approximately 10(exp -4.5)pc(exp -3), their total number in the Galaxy is approximately 10(exp 8.5), and their total contribution to the Galaxy's X-ray luminosity is approximately 10(exp 39) ergs/s. We discuss the possible nature of these soures, including their being subdwarfs, low mass x-ray binaries (LMXBs), massive black holes, and old neutron stars. We argue that the inferred X-ray and optical luminosities of these sources, the slope of their energy spectrum, and the derived local number density and spatial distribution are all consistent with their being intrinsically faint cataclysmic variables with low accretion rates. We suggest a few possibilities for the origin of such population, including an origin from disrupted globular clusters or dark clusters. We make predictions and suggest tests that could either confirm or rule out our proposal in the near future.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-06-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate evacuation departure time or assumed a common departure time for all exposed population. In this paper, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The model is demonstrated for a case study of local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb-level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds can approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios.

SHEEP: The Search for the High Energy Extragalactic Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nandra, K.; Georgantopoulos, I.; Ptak, A.; Turner, T. J.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We present the SHEEP survey for serendipitously-detected hard X-ray sources in ASCA GIS images. In a survey area of approx. 40 sq deg, 69 sources were detected in the 5-10 keV band to a limiting flux of approx. 10(exp -13) erg/sq cm/s. The number counts agree with those obtained by the similar BeppoSAX HELLAS survey, and both are in close agreement with ASCA and BeppoSAX 2-10 keV surveys. Spectral analysis of the SHEEP sample reveals that the 2-10 and 5-10 keV surveys do not sample the same populations, however, as we find considerably harder spectra, with an average Gamma approx. 1.0 assuming no absorption. The implication is that the agreement in the number counts is coincidental, with the 5-10 keV surveys gaining approximately as many hard sources as they lose soft ones, when compared to the 2-10 keV surveys. This is hard to reconcile with standard AGN "population synthesis" models for the X-ray background, which posit the existence of a large population of absorbed sources. We find no evidence of the population hardening at faint fluxes, with the exception that the few very brightest objects are anomalously soft. 53 of the SHEEP sources have been covered by ROSAT in the pointed phase. Of these 32 were detected. An additional 3 were detected in the RASS. As expected the sources detected with ROSAT are systematically softer than those detected with ASCA alone, and of the sample as a whole. Although they represent a biased subsample, the ROSAT positions allow relatively secure catalog identifications to be made. We find associations with a wide variety of AGN and a few clusters and groups. At least two X-ray sources identified with high-z QSOs present very hard X-ray spectra indicative of absorption, despite the presence of broad optical lines. A possible explanation for this is that we are seeing relatively dust-free "warm absorbers" in high luminosity/redshift objects. Our analysis defines a new, hard X-ray selected sample of objects - mostly active galactic nuclei - which is less prone to bias due to obscuration than previous optical or soft X-ray samples. They are therefore more representative of the population of AGN in the universe in general, and the SHEEP survey should produce bright examples of the sources that make up the hard X-ray background, the majority of which has recently been resolved by Chandra. This should help elucidate the nature of the new populations.

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in ecosystem service provision based on the outcomes of alternative land use change model scenarios. Stakeholder workshops were hosted to develop scenarios relevant to planning for future growth in the County, including alternative zoning regulations, road network improvements, and a range of future population projections. The results of the land use change simulations were passed to ARIES to model flood protection and water provision services for each of the alternative scenarios. We present Bayesian models of the ecosystem services as individual source, sink, and use components coupled with models of temporal and spatial flows of services across the landscape. Specific beneficiaries include homeowners, farmers, and other business property owners. The location choice decisions of residential and non-residential agents under the alternative scenarios resulted in varying access to ecosystem services depending on development density, habitat fragmentation, and the degree of hydrological impairment, among other factors. Modeled outputs include maps depicting flow paths (linking sources to beneficiaries), changes in land use, hotspot locations that are critical to sustain the flow of services across the landscape, and the demand for and supply of the modeled services.

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; Workman, Michelle L.; MacFarlane, R. Bruce; Grove, Marty J.; Schmitt, Axel K.

2012-01-01

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstrate that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes (34S/32S, referred to as δ34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI = 5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate = 95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. These findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs. PMID:22347362

Managed Metapopulations: Do Salmon Hatchery ‘Sources’ Lead to In-River ‘Sinks’ in Conservation?

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Rachel C.; Weber, Peter K.; Wikert, John D.; ...

2012-02-08

Maintaining viable populations of salmon in the wild is a primary goal for many conservation and recovery programs. The frequency and extent of connectivity among natal sources defines the demographic and genetic boundaries of a population. Yet, the role that immigration of hatchery-produced adults may play in altering population dynamics and fitness of natural populations remains largely unquantified. Quantifying, whether natural populations are self-sustaining, functions as sources (population growth rate in the absence of dispersal, λ>1), or as sinks (λ<1) can be obscured by an inability to identify immigrants. In this study we use a new isotopic approach to demonstratemore » that a natural spawning population of Chinook salmon, (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) considered relatively healthy, represents a sink population when the contribution of hatchery immigrants is taken into consideration. We retrieved sulfur isotopes ( 34S/ 32S, referred to as δ 34S) in adult Chinook salmon otoliths (ear bones) that were deposited during their early life history as juveniles to determine whether individuals were produced in hatcheries or naturally in rivers. Our results show that only 10.3% (CI=5.5 to 18.1%) of adults spawning in the river had otolith δ 34S values less than 8.5‰, which is characteristic of naturally produced salmon. When considering the total return to the watershed (total fish in river and hatchery), we estimate that 90.7 to 99.3% (CI) of returning adults were produced in a hatchery (best estimate=95.9%). When population growth rate of the natural population was modeled to account for the contribution of previously unidentified hatchery immigrants, we found that hatchery-produced fish caused the false appearance of positive population growth. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential dangers in ignoring source-sink dynamics in recovering natural populations, and question the extent to which declines in natural salmon populations are undetected by monitoring programs.« less

Potential Population Consequences of Active Sonar Disturbance in Atlantic Herring: Estimating the Maximum Risk.

PubMed

Sivle, Lise Doksæter; Kvadsheim, Petter Helgevold; Ainslie, Michael

2016-01-01

Effects of noise on fish populations may be predicted by the population consequence of acoustic disturbance (PCAD) model. We have predicted the potential risk of population disturbance when the highest sound exposure level (SEL) at which adult herring do not respond to naval sonar (SEL(0)) is exceeded. When the population density is low (feeding), the risk is low even at high sonar source levels and long-duration exercises (>24 h). With densely packed populations (overwintering), a sonar exercise might expose the entire population to levels >SEL(0) within a 24-h exercise period. However, the disturbance will be short and the response threshold used here is highly conservative. It is therefore unlikely that naval sonar will significantly impact the herring population.

Debiased estimates for NEO orbits, absolute magnitudes, and source regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce T.; Bottke, William; Beshore, Edward C.; Vokrouhlicky, David; Nesvorny, David; Michel, Patrick

2017-10-01

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies on individual NEOs as well as on more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis (a), eccentricity (e), inclination (i), and absolute magnitude (H). We calibrate the model using NEO detections by the 703 and G96 stations of the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) during 2005-2012 corresponding to objects with 17

Integrated modeling approach using SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source loading and in-stream conditions of fecal indicator bacteria.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.

2016-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is generally a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria (E.coli) source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads were input to the SWAT model in order to simulate the transport through the land and in-stream conditions. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on H-GAC's regional land use, population and household projections (up to 2040). Based on the in-stream reductions required to meet the water quality standards, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

Application of SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source load, fate, and transport of fecal bacteria in watersheds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads from SELECT model were input to the SWAT model, and simulate the bacteria transport through the land and in-stream. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on regional land use, population and household forecast (up to 2040). Based on the reductions required to meet the water quality standards in-stream, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

Biologically based modeling of multimedia, multipathway, multiroute population exposures to arsenic

PubMed Central

Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Yu-Ching; Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Mccurdy, Thomas; Özkaynak, Halûk

2011-01-01

This article presents an integrated, biologically based, source-to-dose assessment framework for modeling multimedia/multipathway/multiroute exposures to arsenic. Case studies demonstrating this framework are presented for three US counties (Hunderton County, NJ; Pima County, AZ; and Franklin County, OH), representing substantially different conditions of exposure. The approach taken utilizes the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) in an implementation that incorporates and extends the approach pioneered by Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS), in conjunction with a number of available databases, including NATA, NHEXAS, CSFII, and CHAD, and extends modeling techniques that have been developed in recent years. Model results indicate that, in most cases, the food intake pathway is the dominant contributor to total exposure and dose to arsenic. Model predictions are evaluated qualitatively by comparing distributions of predicted total arsenic amounts in urine with those derived using biomarker measurements from the NHEXAS — Region V study: the population distributions of urinary total arsenic levels calculated through MENTOR and from the NHEXAS measurements are in general qualitative agreement. Observed differences are due to various factors, such as interindividual variation in arsenic metabolism in humans, that are not fully accounted for in the current model implementation but can be incorporated in the future, in the open framework of MENTOR. The present study demonstrates that integrated source-to-dose modeling for arsenic can not only provide estimates of the relative contributions of multipathway exposure routes to the total exposure estimates, but can also estimate internal target tissue doses for speciated organic and inorganic arsenic, which can eventually be used to improve evaluation of health risks associated with exposures to arsenic from multiple sources, routes, and pathways. PMID:18073786

Implications of Big Data Analytics on Population Health Management.

PubMed

Bradley, Paul S

2013-09-01

As healthcare providers transition to outcome-based reimbursements, it is imperative that they make the transition to population health management to stay viable. Providers already have big data assets in the form of electronic health records and financial billing system. Integrating these disparate sources together in patient-centered datasets provides the foundation for probabilistic modeling of their patient populations. These models are the core technology to compute and track the health and financial risk status of the patient population being served. We show how the probabilistic formulation allows for straightforward, early identification of a change in health and risk status. Knowing when a patient is likely to shift to a less healthy, higher risk category allows the provider to intervene to avert or delay the shift. These automated, proactive alerts are critical in maintaining and improving the health of a population of patients. We discuss results of leveraging these models with an urban healthcare provider to track and monitor type 2 diabetes patients. When intervention outcome data are available, data mining and predictive modeling technology are primed to recommend the best type of intervention (prescriptions, physical therapy, discharge protocols, etc.) with the best likely outcome.

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Sightability adjustment methods for aerial surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinhorst, R.K.; Samuel, M.D.

1989-01-01

Aerial surveys are routinely conducted to estimate the abundance of wildlife species and the rate of population change. However, sightability of animal groups is acknowledged as a significant source of bias in these estimates. Recent research has focused on the development of sightability models to predict the probability of sighting groups under various conditions. Given such models, we show how sightability can be incorporated into the estimator of population size as a probability of response using standard results from sample surveys. We develop formulas for the cases where the sighting probability must be estimated. An example, using data from a helicopter survey of moose in Alberta (Jacobson, Alberta Oil Sands Research Project Report, 1976), is given to illustrate the technique.

High-energy neutrinos from FR0 radio galaxies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavecchio, F.; Righi, C.; Capetti, A.; Grandi, P.; Ghisellini, G.

2018-04-01

The sources responsible for the emission of high-energy (≳100 TeV) neutrinos detected by IceCube are still unknown. Among the possible candidates, active galactic nuclei with relativistic jets are often examined, since the outflowing plasma seems to offer the ideal environment to accelerate the required parent high-energy cosmic rays. The non-detection of single-point sources or - almost equivalently - the absence, in the IceCube events, of multiplets originating from the same sky position - constrains the cosmic density and the neutrino output of these sources, pointing to a numerous population of faint sources. Here we explore the possibility that FR0 radio galaxies, the population of compact sources recently identified in large radio and optical surveys and representing the bulk of radio-loud AGN population, can represent suitable candidates for neutrino emission. Modelling the spectral energy distribution of an FR0 radio galaxy recently associated with a γ-ray source detected by the Large Area Telescope onboard Fermi, we derive the physical parameters of its jet, in particular the power carried by it. We consider the possible mechanisms of neutrino production, concluding that pγ reactions in the jet between protons and ambient radiation is too inefficient to sustain the required output. We propose an alternative scenario, in which protons, accelerated in the jet, escape from it and diffuse in the host galaxy, producing neutrinos as a result of pp scattering with the interstellar gas, in strict analogy with the processes taking place in star-forming galaxies.

Class of self-limiting growth models in the presence of nonlinear diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Sandip; Banik, Suman Kumar; Ray, Deb Shankar

2002-06-01

The source term in a reaction-diffusion system, in general, does not involve explicit time dependence. A class of self-limiting growth models dealing with animal and tumor growth and bacterial population in a culture, on the other hand, are described by kinetics with explicit functions of time. We analyze a reaction-diffusion system to study the propagation of spatial front for these models.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

X-ray Obscured AGN in the GOODS-N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgantopoulos, I.; Akylas, A.; Rovilos, E.; Xilouris, E.

2010-07-01

We explore the X-ray properties of the Dust Obscured Galaxies (DOGs) i.e. sources with f24μ / fR > 1000. This population has been proposed to contain a significant fraction of Compton-thick sources at high redshift. In particular we study the X-ray spectra of the 14 DOGS detected in the CDFN 2Ms exposure. Their stacked spectrum is flat with Γ=1±0.1 very similar to the stacked spectrum of the undetected DOGs (Γ=0.8±0.2). However, most of our X-ray detected DOGs present only moderate absorption with column densities 1022 < NH < 1024 cm-2. Only three sources (20%) present very flat spectra and are probably associated with reflection dominated Compton-thick sources. Our finding is rather at odds with papers which claim that the vast majority of DOGs are associated with Compton-thick sources. In any case, such sources at high redshift (z > 2) present limited interest for the X-ray background: the population synthesis models predict a contribution, for the z > 2 Compton-thick AGN, to the X-ray background flux at 30 keV, of less than 1 percent.

Bioenhanced DNAPL Dissolution: Understanding how Microbial Competition, Biostimulation, and Bioaugmentation Affect Source Zone Longevity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, J. G.; Seagren, E. A.

2006-12-01

The presence of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) at many chlorinated ethene-contaminated sites can greatly extend the time frames needed to reduce dissolved contaminants to regulatory levels using bioremediation. However, it has been demonstrated that mass removal from chlorinated ethene DNAPLs can potentially be enhanced through dehalorespiration of dissolved contaminants near the NAPL-water interface. Although promising, the amount of "bioenhancement" that can be achieved under optimal conditions is currently not known, and the real significance and engineering potential of this phenomenon currently are not well understood, in part because it can be influenced by a complex set of factors, including DNAPL properties, hydrodynamics, substrate concentrations, and microbial competition for growth substrates. In this study it is hypothesized that: (1) different chlorinated ethene-respiring strains may dominate within different zones of a contaminant plume emanating from a DNAPL source zone due to variations in substrate availability, and microbial competition for chlorinated ethenes and/or electron donors; and (2) the outcome of competitive interactions near the DNAPL source zone will affect the longevity of DNAPL source zones by influencing the degree of dissolution bioenhancement, while the outcome of competitive interactions further downgradient will determine the extent of contaminant dechlorination. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed hypothesis, a series of simple, "proof-of-concept," mathematical simulations evaluating the effects of competitive interactions on the distribution of dehalorespirers at the DNAPL-water interface, the dissolution of tetrachloroethene (PCE), and extent of PCE detoxification were performed in a model competition scenario, in which Dehalococcoides ethenogenes and another dehalorespirer (Desulfuromonas michiganensis) compete for the electron acceptor (PCE) and/or electron donor. The model domain for this evaluation simulates a contaminant-source zone consisting of DNAPL ganglia trapped in a subsurface porous medium that slowly releases organic pollutants into the groundwater flowing past it. The model used in the simulations was based on a biokinetic model recently developed by Becker [Environ. Sci. Technol. 40(14):4473-4480] to describe competition among PCE-respiring populations in a homogenous continuously-stirred tank reactor. Becker's model was expanded by adding terms for chlorinated ethene partitioning between the DNAPL and aqueous phases, as well as advection and dispersion of aqueous chlorinated ethenes. The results of these preliminary simulations demonstrate that the outcome of competition between populations for growth substrates can have a significant impact on bioenhancement and, thus, on DNAPL source zone longevity. Although these proof-of- concept simulations do not incorporate all of the complexity of actual field systems, the modeling results are useful for identifying which parameters are important in determining the outcome of competition in the different scenarios and its impact on DNAPL dissolution. This information is needed to understand how biostimulation and bioaugmentation affect bioenhancement by stimulating different populations and develop bioremediation strategies that incorporate these treatment technologies while balancing the twin clean-up goals of reduced source longevity and complete detoxification.

Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotto, Lara Patricia A.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

2015-06-01

A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used to estimate the contribution of the population to nitrogen and phosphorus emissions which was then used in a water transport model to estimate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Manila Bay. Seven scenarios for 2050 were tested, with varying degrees and amounts for extent of sewage treatment, and population growth rates were also included. In scenario 1, the sewage connection and treatment remains the same as 2010; in scenario 2, sewage connection is improved but the treatment is the same; in scenario 3, the sewage connection as well as treatment is improved (70% tertiary); and in scenario 4, a more realistic situation of 70% primary treatment achieved with 100% connection to pipes is tested. Scenarios 5, 6, and 7 have the same parameters as 1, 2, and 3 respectively, but with the population growth rate per province reduced to half of what was used in 1, 2, and 3. In all scenarios, a significant increase in N and P loads was observed (varying from 27% to 469% relative to 2010 values). This was found even in scenario 3 where 70% of the waste water undergoes tertiary treatment which removes 80% N and 90% P. However, the lowest increase in N and P load into the bay was achieved in scenarios 5 to 7 where population growth rate is reduced to half of 2010 values. The results suggest that aside from improving sewage treatment, the continued increase of the human population in Manila at current growth rates will be an important determinant of N and P load into Manila Bay.

EPA ’s ECOLOGICAL MODELS FOR INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic ecological populations and communities are affected by the nature and quality of the water in which they live. Specific factors that affect instream biota include chemical variables, biotic interactions, energy source, flow regime, and habitat structure. As watershed mana...

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Robert N.; Urban, Marie L.; Duchscherer, Samantha E.; ...

2016-01-01

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the artmore » by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.« less

Evaluating effects of Everglades restoration on American crocodile populations in south Florida using a spatially-explicit, stage-based population model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Timothy W.; Slone, Daniel H.; Swain, Eric D.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Lohmann, Melinda; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.

2014-01-01

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Self-efficacy as a unifying construct in nursing-social work collaboration with vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Washington, Olivia G M; Moxley, David P

2013-03-01

The authors consider self-efficacy practice as an organizing construct guiding nursing-social work action research in partnership with older homeless and formerly homeless African-American women. The authors, both academics who together have worked with members of this vulnerable population for a decade and a half, report on their unifying action research perspective immersed in self-efficacy theory. We examine how our adaptations of Bandura's classic four sources of self-efficacy form a distinctive intervention practice designed to help older African-American women emerge from homelessness. We amplify the incorporation of the four sources (vicarious experience and exposure to powerful role models, emotional arousal and accompanying catharsis, verbal persuasion, and role performance) into a grand strategy useful in working collaboratively with members of vulnerable populations, so they can achieve outcomes that improve their functional health, well-being and ultimately their quality of life. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Juan; Jin, Zhen; Sun, Gui-Quan; Sun, Xiang-Dong; Wang, You-Ming; Huang, Baoxu

2014-05-01

H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.

Use of Wildfire Smoke Forcasting Model to Mitigate Burden on a Population's Health and Wellbeing Presentation for International Society of Environmental Epidemiology meeting

EPA Science Inventory

Use of Wildfire Smoke Forecasting Model to Mitigate Burden on a Population’s Health and Wellbeing Ana G. Rappold, Neal Fann, Wayne E. Cascio, Robert B. Devlin, David Diaz-Sanchez Background Wildfires are a major source of fine particular matter and other air pollutants as...

Natural re-colonization and admixture of wolves (Canis lupus) in the US Pacific Northwest: challenges for the protection and management of rare and endangered taxa.

PubMed

Hendricks, Sarah A; Schweizer, Rena M; Harrigan, Ryan J; Pollinger, John P; Paquet, Paul C; Darimont, Chris T; Adams, Jennifer R; Waits, Lisette P; vonHoldt, Bridgett M; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Wayne, Robert K

2018-06-07

Admixture resulting from natural dispersal processes can potentially generate novel phenotypic variation that may facilitate persistence in changing environments or result in the loss of population-specific adaptations. Yet, under the US Endangered Species Act, policy is limited for management of individuals whose ancestry includes a protected taxon; therefore, they are generally not protected under the Act. This issue is exemplified by the recently re-established grey wolves of the Pacific Northwest states of Washington and Oregon, USA. This population was likely founded by two phenotypically and genetically distinct wolf ecotypes: Northern Rocky Mountain (NRM) forest and coastal rainforest. The latter is considered potentially threatened in southeast Alaska and thus the source of migrants may affect plans for their protection. To assess the genetic source of the re-established population, we sequenced a ~ 300 bp portion of the mitochondrial control region and ~ 5 Mbp of the nuclear genome. Genetic analysis revealed that the Washington wolves share ancestry with both wolf ecotypes, whereas the Oregon population shares ancestry with NRM forest wolves only. Using ecological niche modelling, we found that the Pacific Northwest states contain environments suitable for each ecotype, with wolf packs established in both environmental types. Continued migration from coastal rainforest and NRM forest source populations may increase the genetic diversity of the Pacific Northwest population. However, this admixed population challenges traditional management regimes given that admixture occurs between an adaptively distinct ecotype and a more abundant reintroduced interior form. Our results emphasize the need for a more precise US policy to address the general problem of admixture in the management of endangered species, subspecies, and distinct population segments.

A deeper look at the X-ray point source population of NGC 4472

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, T. D.; Maccarone, T. J.; Kraft, R. P.; Sivakoff, G. R.

2017-10-01

In this paper we discuss the X-ray point source population of NGC 4472, an elliptical galaxy in the Virgo cluster. We used recent deep Chandra data combined with archival Chandra data to obtain a 380 ks exposure time. We find 238 X-ray point sources within 3.7 arcmin of the galaxy centre, with a completeness flux, FX, 0.5-2 keV = 6.3 × 10-16 erg s-1 cm-2. Most of these sources are expected to be low-mass X-ray binaries. We finding that, using data from a single galaxy which is both complete and has a large number of objects (˜100) below 1038 erg s-1, the X-ray luminosity function is well fitted with a single power-law model. By cross matching our X-ray data with both space based and ground based optical data for NGC 4472, we find that 80 of the 238 sources are in globular clusters. We compare the red and blue globular cluster subpopulations and find red clusters are nearly six times more likely to host an X-ray source than blue clusters. We show that there is evidence that these two subpopulations have significantly different X-ray luminosity distributions. Source catalogues for all X-ray point sources, as well as any corresponding optical data for globular cluster sources, are also presented here.

AGN radiative feedback in dusty quasar populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishibashi, W.; Banerji, M.; Fabian, A. C.

2017-08-01

New populations of hyper-luminous, dust-obscured quasars have been recently discovered around the peak epoch of galaxy formation (z ˜ 2-3), in addition to similar sources found at lower redshifts. Such dusty quasars are often interpreted as sources 'in transition', from dust-enshrouded starbursts to unobscured luminous quasars, along the evolutionary sequence. Here we consider the role of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) radiative feedback, driven by radiation pressure on dust, in high-luminosity, dust-obscured sources. We analyse how the radiation pressure-driven dusty shell models, with different shell mass configurations, may be applied to the different populations of dusty quasars reported in recent observations. We find that expanding shells, sweeping up matter from the surrounding environment, may account for prolonged obscuration in dusty quasars, e.g. for a central luminosity of L ˜ 1047 erg s-1, a typical obscured phase (with extinction in the range AV ˜ 1-10 mag) may last a few ˜106 yr. On the other hand, fixed-mass shells, coupled with high dust-to-gas ratios, may explain the extreme outflows recently discovered in red quasars at high redshifts. We discuss how the interaction between AGN radiative feedback and the ambient medium at different temporal stages in the evolutionary sequence may contribute to shape the observational appearance of dusty quasar populations.

Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe.

PubMed

Liberg, Olof; Chapron, Guillaume; Wabakken, Petter; Pedersen, Hans Christian; Hobbs, N Thompson; Sand, Håkan

2012-03-07

Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state-space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as 'cryptic poaching'. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching.

Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe

PubMed Central

Liberg, Olof; Chapron, Guillaume; Wabakken, Petter; Pedersen, Hans Christian; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Sand, Håkan

2012-01-01

Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state–space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as ‘cryptic poaching’. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching. PMID:21849323

Considering common sources of exposure in association studies - Urinary benzophenone-3 and DEHP metabolites are associated with altered thyroid hormone balance in the NHANES 2007-2008.

PubMed

Kim, Sujin; Kim, Sunmi; Won, Sungho; Choi, Kyungho

2017-10-01

Epidemiological studies have shown that thyroid hormone balances can be disrupted by chemical exposure. However, many association studies have often failed to consider multiple chemicals with possible common sources of exposure, rendering their conclusions less reliable. In the 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from the U.S.A., urinary levels of environmental phenols, parabens, and phthalate metabolites as well as serum thyroid hormones were measured in a general U.S. population (≥12years old, n=1829). Employing these data, first, the chemicals or their metabolites associated with thyroid hormone measures were identified. Then, the chemicals/metabolites with possible common exposure sources were included in the analytical model to test the sensitivities of their association with thyroid hormone levels. Benzophenone-3 (BP-3), bisphenol A (BPA), and a metabolite of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) were identified as significant determinants of decreased serum thyroid hormones. However, significant positive correlations were detected (p-value<0.05, r=0.23 to 0.45) between these chemicals/metabolites, which suggests that they might share similar exposure sources. In the subsequent sensitivity analysis, which included the chemicals/metabolite with potentially similar exposure sources in the model, we found that urinary BP-3 and DEHP exposure were associated with decreased thyroid hormones among the general population but BPA exposure was not. In association studies, the presence of possible common exposure sources should be considered to circumvent possible false-positive conclusions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-11-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

2014-01-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalog

DOE PAGES

Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; ...

2010-05-25

Here, we present a catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), during the first 11 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. The First Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL) contains 1451 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. Source detection was based on the average flux over the 11 month period, and the threshold likelihood Test Statistic is 25, corresponding to a significance of just over 4σ. The 1FGL catalog includes source location regions,more » defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and power-law spectral fits as well as flux measurements in five energy bands for each source. In addition, monthly light curves are provided. Using a protocol defined before launch we have tested for several populations of gamma-ray sources among the sources in the catalog. For individual LAT-detected sources we provide firm identifications or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. Identifications are based on correlated variability with counterparts at other wavelengths, or on spin or orbital periodicity. For the catalogs and association criteria that we have selected, 630 of the sources are unassociated. In conclusion, care was taken to characterize the sensitivity of the results to the model of interstellar diffuse gamma-ray emission used to model the bright foreground, with the result that 161 sources at low Galactic latitudes and toward bright local interstellar clouds are flagged as having properties that are strongly dependent on the model or as potentially being due to incorrectly modeled structure in the Galactic diffuse emission.« less

Mass synchronization: Occurrence and its control with possible applications to brain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekar, V. K.; Sheeba, Jane H.; Lakshmanan, M.

2010-12-01

Occurrence of strong or mass synchronization of a large number of neuronal populations in the brain characterizes its pathological states. In order to establish an understanding of the mechanism underlying such pathological synchronization, we present a model of coupled populations of phase oscillators representing the interacting neuronal populations. Through numerical analysis, we discuss the occurrence of mass synchronization in the model, where a source population which gets strongly synchronized drives the target populations onto mass synchronization. We hypothesize and identify a possible cause for the occurrence of such a synchronization, which is so far unknown: Pathological synchronization is caused not just because of the increase in the strength of coupling between the populations but also because of the strength of the strong synchronization of the drive population. We propose a demand controlled method to control this pathological synchronization by providing a delayed feedback where the strength and frequency of the synchronization determine the strength and the time delay of the feedback. We provide an analytical explanation for the occurrence of pathological synchronization and its control in the thermodynamic limit.

Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

PubMed

Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

2017-01-01

Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

2014-07-01

A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

Ecology, distribution, and predictive occurrence modeling of Palmers chipmunk (Tamias palmeri): a high-elevation small mammal endemic to the Spring Mountains in southern Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Chris E.; Longshore, Kathleen M.; Riddle, Brett R.; Mantooth, Stacy

2016-01-01

Although montane sky islands surrounded by desert scrub and shrub steppe comprise a large part of the biological diversity of the Basin and Range Province of southwestern North America, comprehensive ecological and population demographic studies for high-elevation small mammals within these areas are rare. Here, we examine the ecology and population parameters of the Palmer’s chipmunk (Tamias palmeri) in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, and present a predictive GIS-based distribution and probability of occurrence model at both home range and geographic spatial scales. Logistic regression analyses and Akaike Information Criterion model selection found variables of forest type, slope, and distance to water sources as predictive of chipmunk occurrence at the geographic scale. At the home range scale, increasing population density, decreasing overstory canopy cover, and decreasing understory canopy cover contributed to increased survival rates.

Variations of Strahl Properties with Fast and Slow Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo; Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Gurgiolo, Chris

2008-01-01

The interplanetary solar wind electron velocity distribution function generally shows three different populations. Two of the components, the core and halo, have been the most intensively analyzed and modeled populations using different theoretical models. The third component, the strahl, is usually seen at higher energies, is confined in pitch-angle, is highly field-aligned and skew. This population has been more difficult to identify and to model in the solar wind. In this work we make use of the high angular, energy and time resolution and three-dimensional data of the Cluster/PEACE electron spectrometer to identify and analyze this component in the ambient solar wind during high and slow speed solar wind. The moment density and fluid velocity have been computed by a semi-numerical integration method. The variations of solar wind density and drift velocity with the general build solar wind speed could provide some insight into the source, origin, and evolution of the strahl.

Efficacy of using data from angler-caught Burbot to estimate population rate functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brauer, Tucker A.; Rhea, Darren T.; Walrath, John D.; Quist, Michael C.

2018-01-01

The effective management of a fish population depends on the collection of accurate demographic data from that population. Since demographic data are often expensive and difficult to obtain, developing cost‐effective and efficient collection methods is a high priority. This research evaluates the efficacy of using angler‐supplied data to monitor a nonnative population of Burbot Lota lota. Age and growth estimates were compared between Burbot collected by anglers and those collected in trammel nets from two Wyoming reservoirs. Collection methods produced different length‐frequency distributions, but no difference was observed in age‐frequency distributions. Mean back‐calculated lengths at age revealed that netted Burbot grew faster than angled Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir. In contrast, angled Burbot grew slightly faster than netted Burbot in Flaming Gorge Reservoir. Von Bertalanffy growth models differed between collection methods, but differences in parameter estimates were minor. Estimates of total annual mortality (A) of Burbot in Fontenelle Reservoir were comparable between angled (A = 35.4%) and netted fish (33.9%); similar results were observed in Flaming Gorge Reservoir for angled (29.3%) and netted fish (30.5%). Beverton–Holt yield‐per‐recruit models were fit using data from both collection methods. Estimated yield differed by less than 15% between data sources and reservoir. Spawning potential ratios indicated that an exploitation rate of 20% would be required to induce recruitment overfishing in either reservoir, regardless of data source. Results of this study suggest that angler‐supplied data are useful for monitoring Burbot population dynamics in Wyoming and may be an option to efficiently monitor other fish populations in North America.

Sinks without borders: Snowshoe hare dynamics in a complex landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Paul C.; Mills, L. Scott

2009-01-01

A full understanding of population dynamics of wide-ranging animals should account for the effects that movement and habitat use have on individual contributions to population growth or decline. Quantifying the per-capita, habitat-specific contribution to population growth can clarify the value of different patch types, and help to differentiate population sources from population sinks. Snowshoe hares, Lepus americanus, routinely use various habitat types in the landscapes they inhabit in the contiguous US, where managing forests for high snowshoe hare density is a priority for conservation of Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis. We estimated density and demographic rates via mark–recapture live trapping and radio-telemetry within four forest stand structure (FSS) types at three study areas within heterogeneous managed forests in western Montana. We found support for known fate survival models with time-varying individual covariates representing the proportion of locations in each of the FSS types, with survival rates decreasing as use of open young and open mature FSS types increased. The per-capita contribution to overall population growth increased with use of the dense mature or dense young FSS types and decreased with use of the open young or open mature FSS types, and relatively high levels of immigration appear to be necessary to sustain hares in the open FSS types. Our results support a conceptual model for snowshoe hares in the southern range in which sink habitats (open areas) prevent the buildup of high hare densities. More broadly, we use this system to develop a novel approach to quantify demographic sources and sinks for animals making routine movements through complex fragmented landscapes.

Modeling Sources of Teaching Self-Efficacy for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Graduate Teaching Assistants

PubMed Central

DeChenne, Sue Ellen; Koziol, Natalie; Needham, Mark; Enochs, Larry

2015-01-01

Graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have a large impact on undergraduate instruction but are often poorly prepared to teach. Teaching self-efficacy, an instructor’s belief in his or her ability to teach specific student populations a specific subject, is an important predictor of teaching skill and student achievement. A model of sources of teaching self-efficacy is developed from the GTA literature. This model indicates that teaching experience, departmental teaching climate (including peer and supervisor relationships), and GTA professional development (PD) can act as sources of teaching self-efficacy. The model is pilot tested with 128 GTAs from nine different STEM departments at a midsized research university. Structural equation modeling reveals that K–12 teaching experience, hours and perceived quality of GTA PD, and perception of the departmental facilitating environment are significant factors that explain 32% of the variance in the teaching self-efficacy of STEM GTAs. This model highlights the important contributions of the departmental environment and GTA PD in the development of teaching self-efficacy for STEM GTAs. PMID:26250562

Inferring Population Exposure from Biomonitoring Data on Urinary Concentrations (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Biomonitoring studies such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) are valuable to exposure assessment both as sources of data to evaluate exposure models and as training sets to develop heuristics for rapid-exposure-assessment tools. However, linking in...

Atmospheric transport of ozone between Southern and Eastern Asia.

PubMed

Chakraborty, T; Beig, G; Dentener, F J; Wild, O

2015-08-01

This study describes the effect of pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia on tropospheric ozone (O3) using model results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). Ensemble mean O3 concentrations are evaluated against satellite-data and ground observations of surface O3 at four stations in India. Although modeled surface O3 concentrations are 1020ppb higher than those observed, the relative magnitude of the seasonal cycle of O3 is reproduced well. Using 20% reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions, we quantify the seasonal variations in pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia. While there is only a difference of 0.05 to 0.1ppb in the magnitudes of the regional contributions from one region to the other, O3 from East Asian sources affects the most densely populated parts of South Asia while Southern Asian sources only partly affect the populated parts of East Asia. We show that emission changes over East Asia between 2000 and 2010 had a larger impact on populated parts of South Asia than vice versa. This study will help inform future decisions on emission control policy over these regions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Semantic Transformation Methodology for the Secondary Use of Observational Healthcare Data in Postmarketing Safety Studies.

PubMed

Pacaci, Anil; Gonul, Suat; Sinaci, A Anil; Yuksel, Mustafa; Laleci Erturkmen, Gokce B

2018-01-01

Background: Utilization of the available observational healthcare datasets is key to complement and strengthen the postmarketing safety studies. Use of common data models (CDM) is the predominant approach in order to enable large scale systematic analyses on disparate data models and vocabularies. Current CDM transformation practices depend on proprietarily developed Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) procedures, which require knowledge both on the semantics and technical characteristics of the source datasets and target CDM. Purpose: In this study, our aim is to develop a modular but coordinated transformation approach in order to separate semantic and technical steps of transformation processes, which do not have a strict separation in traditional ETL approaches. Such an approach would discretize the operations to extract data from source electronic health record systems, alignment of the source, and target models on the semantic level and the operations to populate target common data repositories. Approach: In order to separate the activities that are required to transform heterogeneous data sources to a target CDM, we introduce a semantic transformation approach composed of three steps: (1) transformation of source datasets to Resource Description Framework (RDF) format, (2) application of semantic conversion rules to get the data as instances of ontological model of the target CDM, and (3) population of repositories, which comply with the specifications of the CDM, by processing the RDF instances from step 2. The proposed approach has been implemented on real healthcare settings where Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) CDM has been chosen as the common data model and a comprehensive comparative analysis between the native and transformed data has been conducted. Results: Health records of ~1 million patients have been successfully transformed to an OMOP CDM based database from the source database. Descriptive statistics obtained from the source and target databases present analogous and consistent results. Discussion and Conclusion: Our method goes beyond the traditional ETL approaches by being more declarative and rigorous. Declarative because the use of RDF based mapping rules makes each mapping more transparent and understandable to humans while retaining logic-based computability. Rigorous because the mappings would be based on computer readable semantics which are amenable to validation through logic-based inference methods.

Fishery management priorities vary with self‐recruitment in sedentary marine populations.

PubMed

Yau, Annie J; Lenihan, Hunter S; Kendall, Bruce E

Fisheries science often uses population models that assume no external recruitment, but nearshore marine populations harvested on small scales of <200 km often exhibit an unknown mix of self-recruitment and recruitment from external sources. Since empirical determination of self-recruitment vs. external recruitment is difficult, we used a modeling approach to examine the sensitivity of fishery management priorities to recruitment assumptions (self [closed], external [open]) in a local population of harvested giant clams (Tridacna maxima) on Mo'orea, French Polynesia. From 2006 to 2010, we measured growth, fecundity, recruitment, and survival (resulting from natural and fishing mortality). We used these data to parameterize both a closed (complete self-recruitment) and an open (no self-recruitment) integral projection model (IPM), and then calculated elasticities of demographic rates (growth, survival, recruitment) to future population abundance in 20 years. The models' lowest projected abundance was 93.4% (95% CI, [86.5%, 101.8%]) of present abundance, if the local population is entirely open and the present level of fishing mortality persists. The population will exhibit self-sustaining dynamics (1 ≤ λ ≤ 1.07) as for a closed population if the ratio of self-recruits per gram of dry gonad is >0.775 (equivalent to 52.85% self-recruitment under present conditions). Elasticity analysis of demographic parameters indicated that future abundance can most effectively be influenced by increasing survival of mid-sized clams (∼80–120 mm) if the population is self-sustaining, and by increasing survival of juvenile clams (∼40–70 mm) if the population is non-self-sustaining (as for an open population). Our results illustrate that management priorities can vary depending on the amount of self-recruitment in a local population.

Zoonotic Transmission of Waterborne Disease: A Mathematical Model.

PubMed

Waters, Edward K; Hamilton, Andrew J; Sidhu, Harvinder S; Sidhu, Leesa A; Dunbar, Michelle

2016-01-01

Waterborne parasites that infect both humans and animals are common causes of diarrhoeal illness, but the relative importance of transmission between humans and animals and vice versa remains poorly understood. Transmission of infection from animals to humans via environmental reservoirs, such as water sources, has attracted attention as a potential source of endemic and epidemic infections, but existing mathematical models of waterborne disease transmission have limitations for studying this phenomenon, as they only consider contamination of environmental reservoirs by humans. This paper develops a mathematical model that represents the transmission of waterborne parasites within and between both animal and human populations. It also improves upon existing models by including animal contamination of water sources explicitly. Linear stability analysis and simulation results, using realistic parameter values to describe Giardia transmission in rural Australia, show that endemic infection of an animal host with zoonotic protozoa can result in endemic infection in human hosts, even in the absence of person-to-person transmission. These results imply that zoonotic transmission via environmental reservoirs is important.

On the analysis of large data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruch, Gerald T., Jr.

We present a set of tools and techniques for performing detailed comparisons between computational models with high dimensional parameter spaces and large sets of archival data. By combining a principal component analysis of a large grid of samples from the model with an artificial neural network, we create a powerful data visualization tool as well as a way to robustly recover physical parameters from a large set of experimental data. Our techniques are applied in the context of circumstellar disks, the likely sites of planetary formation. An analysis is performed applying the two layer approximation of Chiang et al. (2001) and Dullemond et al. (2001) to the archive created by the Spitzer Space Telescope Cores to Disks Legacy program. We find two populations of disk sources. The first population is characterized by the lack of a puffed up inner rim while the second population appears to contain an inner rim which casts a shadow across the disk. The first population also exhibits a trend of increasing spectral index while the second population exhibits a decreasing trend in the strength of the 20 mm silicate emission feature. We also present images of the giant molecular cloud W3 obtained with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) and the Multiband Imaging Photometer (MIPS) on board the Spitzer Space Telescope. The images encompass the star forming regions W3 Main, W3(OH), and a region that we refer to as the Central Cluster which encloses the emission nebula IC 1795. We present a star count analysis of the point sources detected in W3. The star count analysis shows that the stellar population of the Central Cluster, when compared to that in the background, contains an over density of sources. The Central Cluster also contains an excess of sources with colors consistent with Class II Young Stellar Objects (YSOs). A analysis of the color-color diagrams also reveals a large number of Class II YSOs in the Central Cluster. Our results suggest that an earlier epoch of star formation created the Central Cluster, created a cavity, and triggered the active star formation in the W3 Main and W3(OH) regions. We also detect a new outflow and its candidate exciting star.

Detecting Lung and Colorectal Cancer Recurrence Using Structured Clinical/Administrative Data to Enable Outcomes Research and Population Health Management.

PubMed

Hassett, Michael J; Uno, Hajime; Cronin, Angel M; Carroll, Nikki M; Hornbrook, Mark C; Ritzwoller, Debra

2017-12-01

Recurrent cancer is common, costly, and lethal, yet we know little about it in community-based populations. Electronic health records and tumor registries contain vast amounts of data regarding community-based patients, but usually lack recurrence status. Existing algorithms that use structured data to detect recurrence have limitations. We developed algorithms to detect the presence and timing of recurrence after definitive therapy for stages I-III lung and colorectal cancer using 2 data sources that contain a widely available type of structured data (claims or electronic health record encounters) linked to gold-standard recurrence status: Medicare claims linked to the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance study, and the Cancer Research Network Virtual Data Warehouse linked to registry data. Twelve potential indicators of recurrence were used to develop separate models for each cancer in each data source. Detection models maximized area under the ROC curve (AUC); timing models minimized average absolute error. Algorithms were compared by cancer type/data source, and contrasted with an existing binary detection rule. Detection model AUCs (>0.92) exceeded existing prediction rules. Timing models yielded absolute prediction errors that were small relative to follow-up time (<15%). Similar covariates were included in all detection and timing algorithms, though differences by cancer type and dataset challenged efforts to create 1 common algorithm for all scenarios. Valid and reliable detection of recurrence using big data is feasible. These tools will enable extensive, novel research on quality, effectiveness, and outcomes for lung and colorectal cancer patients and those who develop recurrence.

A CHALLENGING VIEW OF THE 2015 SUMMER V404 CYG OUTBURST AT HIGH ENERGY WITH INTEGRAL /SPI: THE FINALE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jourdain, Elisabeth; Roques, Jean-Pierre; Rodi, James

2017-01-10

During its strong outburst of 2015 June/July, the X-ray transient V404 Cygni (=GS2023+338) was observed up to a level of 50 Crab in the hard X-ray domain. We focus here on a particularly intense episode preceeding a definitive decline of the source activity. We benefit from large signal-to-noise ratios to investigate the source spectral variability, on a timescale of five minutes. A hardness–intensity study of three broad bands reveals clearly different behaviors at low and high energy (below and above ∼100 keV). In particular, on two occasions, the source intensity varies by a factor of 3–4 in amplitude while keepingmore » the same spectral shape. On the other hand, at the end of the major flare, the emission presents a clear anticorrelation between flux and hardness. These behaviors strongly suggest the presence of two spectral components related to emission processes varying in a largely independent way. The first component ( E < 100–150 keV) is classically identified with a Comptonizing thermal electron population, and requires either an unusual seed photon population or a specific geometry with strong absorbing/reflecting material. The second component is modeled by a cutoff power-law, which could correspond to a second hotter Comptonizing population or another mechanism (synchrotron, non-thermal Comptonization...). In the framework of such a model, hardness–intensity and flux–flux diagrams clearly demonstrate that the source evolution follows a well-organized underlying scheme. They reveal unique information about the hard X-ray emission processes and connections between them.« less

Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

PubMed

Li, Ting; Li, Jing; Zhou, Zixiang; Wang, Yanze; Yang, Xiaonan; Qin, Keyu; Liu, Jingya

2017-04-01

Carbon sequestration is an indispensable ecosystem service provided by soil and vegetation, so mapping and valuing the carbon budget by considering both ecological and social factors is an important trend in evaluating ecosystem services. In this work, we established multiple scenarios to evaluate the impacts of land use change, population growth, carbon emission per capita, and carbon markets on carbon budget. We quantified carbon sinks (aboveground and belowground) under different scenarios, using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model, and studied carbon sources caused by human activities by analyzing the spatial distribution of human population and carbon emission per capita. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using NPV model. Our results indicate that the carbon budget of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region is surplus: Carbon sinks range from 1.50 × 10 10 to 1.54 × 10 10  t, while carbon sources caused by human activities range from 2.76 × 10 5 to 7.60 × 10 5  t. And the NPV for carbon deficits range from 3.20 × 10 11 RMB to 1.52 × 10 12 RMB. From the perspective of ecological management, deforestation, urban sprawl, population growth, and excessive carbon consumption are considered as the main challenges in balancing carbon sources and sinks. Levying carbon tax would be a considerable option when decision maker develops carbon emission reduction policies. Our results provide a scientific and credible reference for harmonious and sustainable development in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

The Velocity and Density Distribution of Earth-Intersecting Meteoroids: Implications for Environment Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moorhead, A. V.; Brown, P. G.; Campbell-Brown, M. D.; Moser, D. E.; Blaauw, R. C.; Cooke, W. J.

2017-01-01

Meteoroids are known to damage spacecraft: they can crater or puncture components, disturb a spacecraft's attitude, and potentially create secondary electrical effects. Because the damage done depends on the speed, size, density, and direction of the impactor, accurate environment models are critical for mitigating meteoroid-related risks. Yet because meteoroid properties are derived from indirect observations such as meteors and impact craters, many characteristics of the meteoroid environment are uncertain. In this work, we present recent improvements to the meteoroid speed and density distributions. Our speed distribution is derived from observations made by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. These observations are de-biased using modern descriptions of the ionization efficiency. Our approach yields a slower meteoroid population than previous analyses (see Fig. 1 for an example) and we compute the uncertainties associated with our derived distribution. We adopt a higher fidelity density distribution than that used by many older models. In our distribution, meteoroids with TJ less than 2 are assigned to a low-density population, while those with TJ greater than 2 have higher densities (see Fig. 2). This division and the distributions themselves are derived from the densities reported by Kikwaya et al. These changes have implications for the environment: for instance, the helion/antihelion sporadic sources have lower speeds than the apex and toroidal sources and originate from high-T(sub J) parent bodies. Our on-average slower and denser distributions thus imply that the helion and antihelion sources dominate the meteoroid environment even more completely than previously thought. Finally, for a given near-Earth meteoroid cratering rate, a slower meteoroid population produces a comparatively higher rate of satellite attitude disturbances.

Parameter-expanded data augmentation for Bayesian analysis of capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Data augmentation (DA) is a flexible tool for analyzing closed and open population models of capture-recapture data, especially models which include sources of hetereogeneity among individuals. The essential concept underlying DA, as we use the term, is based on adding "observations" to create a dataset composed of a known number of individuals. This new (augmented) dataset, which includes the unknown number of individuals N in the population, is then analyzed using a new model that includes a reformulation of the parameter N in the conventional model of the observed (unaugmented) data. In the context of capture-recapture models, we add a set of "all zero" encounter histories which are not, in practice, observable. The model of the augmented dataset is a zero-inflated version of either a binomial or a multinomial base model. Thus, our use of DA provides a general approach for analyzing both closed and open population models of all types. In doing so, this approach provides a unified framework for the analysis of a huge range of models that are treated as unrelated "black boxes" and named procedures in the classical literature. As a practical matter, analysis of the augmented dataset by MCMC is greatly simplified compared to other methods that require specialized algorithms. For example, complex capture-recapture models of an augmented dataset can be fitted with popular MCMC software packages (WinBUGS or JAGS) by providing a concise statement of the model's assumptions that usually involves only a few lines of pseudocode. In this paper, we review the basic technical concepts of data augmentation, and we provide examples of analyses of closed-population models (M 0, M h , distance sampling, and spatial capture-recapture models) and open-population models (Jolly-Seber) with individual effects.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Probing the Dusty Stellar Populations of the Local Volume Galaxies with JWST/MIRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Olivia C.; Meixner, Margaret; Justtanont, Kay; Glasse, Alistair

2017-05-01

The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will revolutionize our understanding of infrared stellar populations in the Local Volume. Using the rich Spitzer-IRS spectroscopic data set and spectral classifications from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE)-Spectroscopic survey of more than 1000 objects in the Magellanic Clouds, the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch Star Model (grams), and the grid of YSO models by Robitaille et al., we calculate the expected flux densities and colors in the MIRI broadband filters for prominent infrared stellar populations. We use these fluxes to explore the JWST/MIRI colors and magnitudes for composite stellar population studies of Local Volume galaxies. MIRI color classification schemes are presented; these diagrams provide a powerful means of identifying young stellar objects, evolved stars, and extragalactic background galaxies in Local Volume galaxies with a high degree of confidence. Finally, we examine which filter combinations are best for selecting populations of sources based on their JWST colors.

A DCM study of spectral asymmetries in feedforward and feedback connections between visual areas V1 and V4 in the monkey.

PubMed

Bastos, A M; Litvak, V; Moran, R; Bosman, C A; Fries, P; Friston, K J

2015-03-01

This paper reports a dynamic causal modeling study of electrocorticographic (ECoG) data that addresses functional asymmetries between forward and backward connections in the visual cortical hierarchy. Specifically, we ask whether forward connections employ gamma-band frequencies, while backward connections preferentially use lower (beta-band) frequencies. We addressed this question by modeling empirical cross spectra using a neural mass model equipped with superficial and deep pyramidal cell populations-that model the source of forward and backward connections, respectively. This enabled us to reconstruct the transfer functions and associated spectra of specific subpopulations within cortical sources. We first established that Bayesian model comparison was able to discriminate between forward and backward connections, defined in terms of their cells of origin. We then confirmed that model selection was able to identify extrastriate (V4) sources as being hierarchically higher than early visual (V1) sources. Finally, an examination of the auto spectra and transfer functions associated with superficial and deep pyramidal cells confirmed that forward connections employed predominantly higher (gamma) frequencies, while backward connections were mediated by lower (alpha/beta) frequencies. We discuss these findings in relation to current views about alpha, beta, and gamma oscillations and predictive coding in the brain. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Population growth and economic growth.

PubMed

Narayana, D L

1984-01-01

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution.

Informations in Models of Evolutionary Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivoire, Olivier

2016-03-01

Biological organisms adapt to changes by processing informations from different sources, most notably from their ancestors and from their environment. We review an approach to quantify these informations by analyzing mathematical models of evolutionary dynamics and show how explicit results are obtained for a solvable subclass of these models. In several limits, the results coincide with those obtained in studies of information processing for communication, gambling or thermodynamics. In the most general case, however, information processing by biological populations shows unique features that motivate the analysis of specific models.

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Lubow, Bruce C.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model MH), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Income has been extensively studied and utilized as a determinant of health. There are several sources of income expressed as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, but there are no time series that are complete for the years between 1950 and 2015 for the 210 countries for which data exist. It is in the interest of population health research to establish a global time series that is complete from 1950 to 2015. Methods We collected GDP per capita estimates expressed in either constant US dollar terms or international dollar terms (corrected for purchasing power parity) from seven sources. We applied several stages of models, including ordinary least-squares regressions and mixed effects models, to complete each of the seven source series from 1950 to 2015. The three US dollar and four international dollar series were each averaged to produce two new GDP per capita series. Results and discussion Nine complete series from 1950 to 2015 for 210 countries are available for use. These series can serve various analytical purposes and can illustrate myriad economic trends and features. The derivation of the two new series allows for researchers to avoid any series-specific biases that may exist. The modeling approach used is flexible and will allow for yearly updating as new estimates are produced by the source series. Conclusion GDP per capita is a necessary tool in population health research, and our development and implementation of a new method has allowed for the most comprehensive known time series to date. PMID:22846561

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romine, Jason G.; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Perry, Russell W.; Casal, Lynne; Connolly, Patrick J.; Sauter, Sally S.

2013-01-01

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Testing a new hypothesis on the persistence of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine: Coastal Amplification of Supply and Transport (CAST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, R.; Feng, Z.; Jones, B.; Chen, C.; Record, N.; Runge, J. A.

2016-02-01

The lipid-rich calanoid copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, plays a critical role in the pelagic food web of the North Atlantic ecosystem. Deep basins along the continental shelf, such as Wilkinson Basin (WB) in the Gulf of Maine, harbor high abundance of diapausing C. finmarchicus during the summer and fall that have persisted despite predictions to the contrary. Identifying the major source of diapausing individuals is critical to the understanding of mechanisms that allow population persistence. This is especially true for a shelf system such as the the Gulf of Maine, which has recently experienced significant warming that could potentially threaten the existence of the population in the region. In this study, we conduct a series of Lagrangian tracking experiments using a copepod life history individual-based model. Model results suggest that coastal waters are the major upstream source for individuals entering dormancy in WB over summertime, although pathways and distribution patterns vary with vertical positioning and release timing of particles. By linking these model results and the observed high springtime egg production rate in the coastal Gulf of Maine, we propose a new mechanism for population persistence that involves coastal amplification of supply (spring reproduction/summer growth in the food-rich coastal region) and transport to receiving basins (e.g. WB) capable of harboring the overwintering stock.

ADVANCEMENTS IN SOURCE-TO-DOSE ANALYSIS OF POPULATION EXPOSURES TO OZONE

EPA Science Inventory

The current study takes advantage of the observations from regional air quality monitoring networks, the data from the NE-OPS (North East Oxidant and Particulate Study) Project in the Philadelphia region, and regional photochemical air quality model predictions to obtain and co...

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

2010-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Effect of feeding on the pharmacokinetics of oral minocycline in healthy research dogs.

PubMed

Hnot, Melanie L; Cole, Lynette K; Lorch, Gwendolen; Rajala-Schultz, Paivi J; Papich, Mark G

2015-12-01

The effect of food on minocycline oral absorption in dogs is unknown. The objective was to determine the pharmacokinetics of minocycline after administration of a single oral dose in fed and fasted dogs. Ten research hounds were administered oral minocycline (approximately 5 mg/kg) with and without food, in a crossover study, with a one-week wash-out between treatments. Blood samples were collected immediately prior to minocycline administration and over 24 h. Minocycline plasma drug concentrations were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography using ultraviolet detection and were analysed with compartmental modelling to determine primary pharmacokinetic parameters. Each dog was analysed independently, followed by calculation of means and variation of the dogs. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test [analysing secondary pharmacokinetic parameters - peak concentration (CMAX ), area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC)] was used to compare the two groups. A population pharmacokinetic modelling approach was performed using nonlinear mixed effects modelling of primary parameters for the population as fixed effects and the difference between subjects as a random effect. Covariate analysis was used to identify the source of variability in the population. No significant difference was found between treatments for AUC (P = 0.0645), although AUC was higher in fasted dogs. A significant difference was found for CMAX (P = 0.0059), with fasted dogs attaining a higher CMAX . The covariate of fed versus fasted accounted for a significant variation in the pharmacokinetics. Because feeding was a significant source of variation for the population's primary pharmacokinetic parameters and fasted dogs had higher minocycline concentrations, we recommend administering minocycline without food. © 2015 ESVD and ACVD.

Unveiling the Synchrotron Cosmic Web: Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Shea; Rudnick, Lawrence; Pfrommer, Christoph; Jones, Thomas

2011-10-01

The overall goal of this project is to challenge our current theoretical understanding of the relativistic particle populations in the inter-galactic medium (IGM) through deep 1.4 GHz observations of 13 massive, high-redshift clusters of galaxies. Designed to compliment/extend the GMRT radio halo survey (Venturi et al. 2007), these observations will attempt to detect the peaks of the purported synchrotron cosmic-web, and place serious limits on models of CR acceleration and magnetic field amplification during large-scale structure formation. The primary goals of this survey are: 1) Confirm the bi-modal nature of the radio halo population, which favors turbulent re-acceleration of cosmic-ray electrons (CRe) during cluster mergers as the source of the diffuse radio emission; 2) Directly test hadronic secondary models which predict the presence of cosmic-ray protons (CRp) in the cores of massive X-ray clusters; 3) Search in polarization for shock structures, a potential source of CR acceleration in the IGM.

Big, Not So Easy: Comparing Insurgency Theory to the Complex Problem of Violence in New Orleans

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-16

concern to gaining control through demonstrated military strength.59 Castro and Guevara were indeed successful in Cuba ; however, it is arguable whether...already been losing control of the population. Guevara’s attempt to replicate the success achieved in Cuba , using the focoism model, met with disaster...Orleans in population size and economic base, both cities rely on tourism as their main source of income. During reporting year 2009-2010, Orlando

Ionospheric Outflow in the Magnetosphere: Circulation and Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.

2017-12-01

Including ionospheric outflow in global magnetohydrodynamic models of near-Earth outer space has become an important step towards understanding the role of this plasma source in the magnetosphere. Such simulations have revealed the importance of outflow in populating the plasma sheet and inner magnetosphere as a function of outflow source characteristics. More importantly, these experiments have shown how outflow can control global dynamics, including tail dynamics and dayside reconnection rate. The broad impact of light and heavy ion outflow can create non-linear feedback loops between outflow and the magnetosphere. This paper reviews some of the most important revelations from global magnetospheric modeling that includes ionospheric outflow of light and heavy ions. It also introduces new advances in outflow modeling and coupling outflow to the magnetosphere.

Coalescent: an open-source and scalable framework for exact calculations in coalescent theory

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Currently, there is no open-source, cross-platform and scalable framework for coalescent analysis in population genetics. There is no scalable GUI based user application either. Such a framework and application would not only drive the creation of more complex and realistic models but also make them truly accessible. Results As a first attempt, we built a framework and user application for the domain of exact calculations in coalescent analysis. The framework provides an API with the concepts of model, data, statistic, phylogeny, gene tree and recursion. Infinite-alleles and infinite-sites models are considered. It defines pluggable computations such as counting and listing all the ancestral configurations and genealogies and computing the exact probability of data. It can visualize a gene tree, trace and visualize the internals of the recursion algorithm for further improvement and attach dynamically a number of output processors. The user application defines jobs in a plug-in like manner so that they can be activated, deactivated, installed or uninstalled on demand. Multiple jobs can be run and their inputs edited. Job inputs are persisted across restarts and running jobs can be cancelled where applicable. Conclusions Coalescent theory plays an increasingly important role in analysing molecular population genetic data. Models involved are mathematically difficult and computationally challenging. An open-source, scalable framework that lets users immediately take advantage of the progress made by others will enable exploration of yet more difficult and realistic models. As models become more complex and mathematically less tractable, the need for an integrated computational approach is obvious. Object oriented designs, though has upfront costs, are practical now and can provide such an integrated approach. PMID:23033878

Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations.

PubMed

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Armenta, Richard; Linker, Jon A; Eick, Angela A; Sanchez, Jose L; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P; Riley, Steven

2013-01-01

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009-2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility ([Formula: see text], p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available - and consistent - data from multiple populations.

Multiple Estimates of Transmissibility for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic Based on Influenza-like-Illness Data from Small US Military Populations

PubMed Central

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Armenta, Richard; Linker, Jon A.; Eick, Angela A.; Sanchez, Jose L.; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P.; Riley, Steven

2013-01-01

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009–2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility (, p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available – and consistent – data from multiple populations. PMID:23696723

Relative host body condition and food availability influence epidemic dynamics: a Poecilia reticulata-Gyrodactylus turnbulli host-parasite model.

PubMed

Tadiri, Christina P; Dargent, Felipe; Scott, Marilyn E

2013-03-01

Understanding disease transmission is important to species management and human health. Host body condition, nutrition and disease susceptibility interact in a complex manner, and while the individual effects of these variables are well known, our understanding of how they interact and translate to population dynamics is limited. Our objective was to determine whether host relative body condition influences epidemic dynamics, and how this relationship is affected by food availability. Poecilia reticulata (guppies) of roughly similar size were selected and assembled randomly into populations of 10 guppies assigned to 3 different food availability treatments, and the relative condition index (Kn) of each fish was calculated. We infected 1 individual per group ('source' fish) with Gyrodactyus turnbulli and counted parasites on each fish every other day for 10 days. Epidemic parameters for each population were analysed using generalized linear models. High host Kn-particularly that of the 'source' fish-exerted a positive effect on incidence, peak parasite burden, and the degree of parasite aggregation. Low food availability increased the strength of the associations with peak burden and aggregation. Our findings suggest that host Kn and food availability interact to influence epidemic dynamics, and that the condition of the individual that brings the parasite into the host population has a profound impact on the spread of infection.

Serial Founder Effects During Range Expansion: A Spatial Analog of Genetic Drift

PubMed Central

Slatkin, Montgomery; Excoffier, Laurent

2012-01-01

Range expansions cause a series of founder events. We show that, in a one-dimensional habitat, these founder events are the spatial analog of genetic drift in a randomly mating population. The spatial series of allele frequencies created by successive founder events is equivalent to the time series of allele frequencies in a population of effective size ke, the effective number of founders. We derive an expression for ke in a discrete-population model that allows for local population growth and migration among established populations. If there is selection, the net effect is determined approximately by the product of the selection coefficients and the number of generations between successive founding events. We use the model of a single population to compute analytically several quantities for an allele present in the source population: (i) the probability that it survives the series of colonization events, (ii) the probability that it reaches a specified threshold frequency in the last population, and (iii) the mean and variance of the frequencies in each population. We show that the analytic theory provides a good approximation to simulation results. A consequence of our approximation is that the average heterozygosity of neutral alleles decreases by a factor of 1 – 1/(2ke) in each new population. Therefore, the population genetic consequences of surfing can be predicted approximately by the effective number of founders and the effective selection coefficients, even in the presence of migration among populations. We also show that our analytic results are applicable to a model of range expansion in a continuously distributed population. PMID:22367031

Serial founder effects during range expansion: a spatial analog of genetic drift.

PubMed

Slatkin, Montgomery; Excoffier, Laurent

2012-05-01

Range expansions cause a series of founder events. We show that, in a one-dimensional habitat, these founder events are the spatial analog of genetic drift in a randomly mating population. The spatial series of allele frequencies created by successive founder events is equivalent to the time series of allele frequencies in a population of effective size ke, the effective number of founders. We derive an expression for ke in a discrete-population model that allows for local population growth and migration among established populations. If there is selection, the net effect is determined approximately by the product of the selection coefficients and the number of generations between successive founding events. We use the model of a single population to compute analytically several quantities for an allele present in the source population: (i) the probability that it survives the series of colonization events, (ii) the probability that it reaches a specified threshold frequency in the last population, and (iii) the mean and variance of the frequencies in each population. We show that the analytic theory provides a good approximation to simulation results. A consequence of our approximation is that the average heterozygosity of neutral alleles decreases by a factor of 1-1/(2ke) in each new population. Therefore, the population genetic consequences of surfing can be predicted approximately by the effective number of founders and the effective selection coefficients, even in the presence of migration among populations. We also show that our analytic results are applicable to a model of range expansion in a continuously distributed population.

Star Formation and Young Population of the H II Complex Sh2-294

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samal, M. R.; Pandey, A. K.; Ojha, D. K.; Chauhan, N.; Jose, J.; Pandey, B.

2012-08-01

The Sh2-294 H II region ionized by a single B0V star features several infrared excess sources, a photodissociation region, and also a group of reddened stars at its border. The star formation scenario in this region seems to be quite complex. In this paper, we present follow-up results of Sh2-294 H II region at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 μm observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera (IRAC), coupled with H2 (2.12 μm) observation, to characterize the young population of the region and to understand its star formation history. We identified 36 young stellar object (YSO, Class I, Class II, and Class I/II) candidates using IRAC color-color diagrams. It is found that Class I sources are preferentially located at the outskirts of the H II region and associated with enhanced H2 emission; none of them are located near the central cluster. Combining the optical to mid-infrared (MIR) photometry of the YSO candidates and using the spectral energy distribution fitting models, we constrained stellar parameters and the evolutionary status of 33 YSO candidates. Most of them are interpreted by the model as low-mass (<4 M ⊙) YSOs; however, we also detected a massive YSO (~9 M ⊙) of Class I nature, embedded in a cloud of visual extinction of ~24 mag. Present analysis suggests that the Class I sources are indeed a younger population of the region relative to Class II sources (age ~ 4.5 × 106 yr). We suggest that the majority of the Class I sources, including the massive YSOs, are second-generation stars of the region whose formation is possibly induced by the expansion of the H II region powered by a ~4 × 106 yr B0 main-sequence star.

STAR FORMATION AND YOUNG POPULATION OF THE H II COMPLEX Sh2-294

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samal, M. R.; Pandey, A. K.; Chauhan, N.

The Sh2-294 H II region ionized by a single B0V star features several infrared excess sources, a photodissociation region, and also a group of reddened stars at its border. The star formation scenario in this region seems to be quite complex. In this paper, we present follow-up results of Sh2-294 H II region at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 {mu}m observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera (IRAC), coupled with H{sub 2} (2.12 {mu}m) observation, to characterize the young population of the region and to understand its star formation history. We identified 36 young stellar object (YSO, Classmore » I, Class II, and Class I/II) candidates using IRAC color-color diagrams. It is found that Class I sources are preferentially located at the outskirts of the H II region and associated with enhanced H{sub 2} emission; none of them are located near the central cluster. Combining the optical to mid-infrared (MIR) photometry of the YSO candidates and using the spectral energy distribution fitting models, we constrained stellar parameters and the evolutionary status of 33 YSO candidates. Most of them are interpreted by the model as low-mass (<4 M{sub Sun }) YSOs; however, we also detected a massive YSO ({approx}9 M{sub Sun }) of Class I nature, embedded in a cloud of visual extinction of {approx}24 mag. Present analysis suggests that the Class I sources are indeed a younger population of the region relative to Class II sources (age {approx} 4.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} yr). We suggest that the majority of the Class I sources, including the massive YSOs, are second-generation stars of the region whose formation is possibly induced by the expansion of the H II region powered by a {approx}4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} yr B0 main-sequence star.« less

Modeling Electric Field Influences on Plasmaspheric Refilling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liemohn, M. W.; Kozyra, J. U.; Khazanov, G. V.; Craven, Paul D.

1998-01-01

We have a new model of ion transport that we have applied to the problem of plasmaspheric flux tube refilling after a geomagnetic disturbance. This model solves the Fokker-Planck kinetic equation by applying discrete difference numerical schemes to the various operators. Features of the model include a time-varying ionospheric source, self-consistent Coulomb collisions, field-aligned electric field, hot plasma interactions, and ion cyclotron wave heating. We see refilling rates similar to those of earlier observations and models, except when the electric field is included. In this case, the refilling rates can be quite different that previously predicted. Depending on the populations included and the values of relevant parameters, trap zone densities can increase or decrease. In particular, the inclusion of hot populations near the equatorial region (specifically warm pancake distributions and ring current ions) can dramatically alter the refilling rate. Results are compared with observations as well as previous hydrodynamic and kinetic particle model simulations.

Population pharmacokinetics of rifampin in the treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Asian elephants.

PubMed

Egelund, E F; Isaza, R; Brock, A P; Alsultan, A; An, G; Peloquin, C A

2015-04-01

The objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for rifampin in elephants. Rifampin concentration data from three sources were pooled to provide a total of 233 oral concentrations from 37 Asian elephants. The population pharmacokinetic models were created using Monolix (version 4.2). Simulations were conducted using ModelRisk. We examined the influence of age, food, sex, and weight as model covariates. We further optimized the dosing of rifampin based upon simulations using the population pharmacokinetic model. Rifampin pharmacokinetics were best described by a one-compartment open model including first-order absorption with a lag time and first-order elimination. Body weight was a significant covariate for volume of distribution, and food intake was a significant covariate for lag time. The median Cmax of 6.07 μg/mL was below the target range of 8-24 μg/mL. Monte Carlo simulations predicted the highest treatable MIC of 0.25 μg/mL with the current initial dosing recommendation of 10 mg/kg, based upon a previously published target AUC0-24/MIC > 271 (fAUC > 41). Simulations from the population model indicate that the current dose of 10 mg/kg may be adequate for MICs up to 0.25 μg/mL. While the targeted AUC/MIC may be adequate for most MICs, the median Cmax for all elephants is below the human and elephant targeted ranges. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

2018-01-01

Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas, and status of the species for the larger Bi-State.

Role of introduction history and landscape in the range expansion of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in the Kerguelen Islands.

PubMed

Launey, Sophie; Brunet, Geraldine; Guyomard, René; Davaine, Patrick

2010-01-01

Human-mediated biological invasions constitute interesting case studies to understand evolutionary processes, including the role of founder effects. Population expansion of newly introduced species can be highly dependant on barriers caused by landscape features, but identifying these barriers and their impact on genetic structure is a relatively recent concern in population genetics and ecology. Salmonid populations of the Kerguelen Islands archipelago are a favorable model system to address these questions as these populations are characterized by a simple history of introduction, little or no anthropogenic influence, and demographic monitoring since the first introductions. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci in 19 populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in the Courbet Peninsula (Kerguelen Islands), where the species, introduced in 3 rivers only, has colonized the whole water system in 40 years. Despite a limited numbers of introductions, trout populations have maintained a genetic diversity comparable with what is found in hatchery or wild populations in Europe, but they are genetically structured. The main factor explaining the observed patterns of genetic diversity is the history of introductions, with each introduced population acting as a source for colonization of nearby rivers. Correlations between environmental and genetic parameters show that within each "source population" group, landscape characteristics (type of coast, accessibility of river mouth, distances between rivers, river length ...) play a role in shaping directions and rates of migration, and thus the genetic structure of the colonizing populations.

Assessment of spatial discordance of primary and effective seed dispersal of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) by ecological and genetic methods.

PubMed

Millerón, M; López de Heredia, U; Lorenzo, Z; Alonso, J; Dounavi, A; Gil, L; Nanos, N

2013-03-01

Spatial discordance between primary and effective dispersal in plant populations indicates that postdispersal processes erase the seed rain signal in recruitment patterns. Five different models were used to test the spatial concordance of the primary and effective dispersal patterns in a European beech (Fagus sylvatica) population from central Spain. An ecological method was based on classical inverse modelling (SSS), using the number of seed/seedlings as input data. Genetic models were based on direct kernel fitting of mother-to-offspring distances estimated by a parentage analysis or were spatially explicit models based on the genotype frequencies of offspring (competing sources model and Moran-Clark's Model). A fully integrated mixed model was based on inverse modelling, but used the number of genotypes as input data (gene shadow model). The potential sources of error and limitations of each seed dispersal estimation method are discussed. The mean dispersal distances for seeds and saplings estimated with these five methods were higher than those obtained by previous estimations for European beech forests. All the methods show strong discordance between primary and effective dispersal kernel parameters, and for dispersal directionality. While seed rain was released mostly under the canopy, saplings were established far from mother trees. This discordant pattern may be the result of the action of secondary dispersal by animals or density-dependent effects; that is, the Janzen-Connell effect. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping the spatio-temporal risk of lead exposure in apex species for more effective mitigation

PubMed Central

Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.; Jiménez-Moreno, María; Camarero, Pablo R.; Sánchez-Barbudo, Inés S.; Rodríguez Martín-Doimeadios, Rosa C.; Mateo, Rafael

2016-01-01

Effective mitigation of the risks posed by environmental contaminants for ecosystem integrity and human health requires knowing their sources and spatio-temporal distribution. We analysed the exposure to lead (Pb) in griffon vulture Gyps fulvus—an apex species valuable as biomonitoring sentinel. We determined vultures' lead exposure and its main sources by combining isotope signatures and modelling analyses of 691 bird blood samples collected over 5 years. We made yearlong spatially explicit predictions of the species risk of lead exposure. Our results highlight elevated lead exposure of griffon vultures (i.e. 44.9% of the studied population, approximately 15% of the European, showed lead blood levels more than 200 ng ml−1) partly owing to environmental lead (e.g. geological sources). These exposures to environmental lead of geological sources increased in those vultures exposed to point sources (e.g. lead-based ammunition). These spatial models and pollutant risk maps are powerful tools that identify areas of wildlife exposure to potentially harmful sources of lead that could affect ecosystem and human health. PMID:27466455

Mixed-source reintroductions lead to outbreeding depression in second-generation descendents of a native North American fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, D.D.; Miller, L.M.; Chizinski, C.J.; Vondracek, B.

2011-01-01

Reintroductions are commonly employed to preserve intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, reintroduced populations are frequently smaller and more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically, divergent sources are often proposed to attenuate potentially low genetic diversity in reintroduced populations that may result from small effective population sizes. However, a possible negative tradeoff for mixing sources is outbreeding depression in hybrid offspring. We examined the consequences of mixed-source reintroductions on several fitness surrogates at nine slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) reintroduction sites in south-east Minnesota. We inferred the relative fitness of each crosstype in the reintroduced populations by comparing their growth rate, length, weight, body condition and persistence in reintroduced populations. Pure strain descendents from a single source population persisted in a greater proportion than expected in the reintroduced populations, whereas all other crosstypes occurred in a lesser proportion. Length, weight and growth rate were lower for second-generation intra-population hybrid descendents than for pure strain and first-generation hybrids. In the predominant pure strain, young-of the-year size was significantly greater than any other crosstype. Our results suggested that differences in fitness surrogates among crosstypes were consistent with disrupted co-adapted gene complexes associated with beneficial adaptations in these reintroduced populations. Future reintroductions may be improved by evaluating the potential for local adaptation in source populations or by avoiding the use of mixed sources by default when information on local adaptations or other genetic characteristics is lacking. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

HIV and AIDS in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Azim, Tasnim; Khan, Sharful Islam; Haseen, Fariha; Huq, Nafisa Lira; Henning, Lars; Pervez, Md. Moshtaq; Chowdhury, Mahbub Elahi; Sarafian, Isabelle

2008-01-01

Bangladesh initiated an early response to the HIV epidemic starting in the mid-1980s. Since then, the res-ponse has been enhanced considerably, and many HIV-prevention interventions among the most at-risk populations and the general youth are being undertaken. Alongside prevention activities, gathering of data has been a key activity fostered by both the Government and individual development partners. This paper reviews available sources of data, including routine surveillance (HIV and behavioural among most at-risk populations), general population surveys, and various research studies with the aim to understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Bangladesh. Available data show that the HIV epidemic is still at relatively low levels and is concentrated mainly among injecting drug users (IDUs) in Dhaka city. In addition, when the passively-reported cases were analyzed, another population group that appears to be especially vulnerable is migrant workers who leave their families and travel abroad for work. However, all sources of data confirm that risk behaviours that make individuals vulnerable to HIV are high—this is apparent within most at-risk populations and the general population (adult males and youth males and females). Based on the current activities and the sources of data, modelling exercises of the future of the HIV epidemic in Dhaka suggest that, if interventions are not enhanced further, Bangladesh is likely to start with an IDU-driven epidemic, similar to other neighbouring countries, which will then move to other population groups, including sex workers, males who have sex with males, clients of sex workers, and ultimately their families. This review reiterates the often repeated message that if Bangladesh wants to be an example of how to avert an HIV epidemic, it needs to act now using evidence-based programming. PMID:18831227

The political ecology of disaster: an analysis of factors influencing U.S. tornado fatalities and injuries, 1998-2000.

PubMed

Donner, William R

2007-08-01

This study examines casualties from tornadoes in the United States between the years 1998 and 2000. A political model of human ecology (POET) was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models. Data were drawn from four sources: John Hart's Severe Plot v2.0, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Verification data, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watch data, and tract-level census data. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze the causes of tornado fatalities and injuries. Independent variables (following POET) are classified in the following manner: population, organization, environment, and technology. Rural population, population density, and household size correspond to population; racial minorities and deprivation represent social organization; tornado area represents environment; and tornado watches and warnings, as well as mobile homes, correspond to technology. Findings suggest a strong relationship between the size of a tornado path and both fatalities and injuries, whereas other measures related to technology, population, and organization produce significant yet mixed results. Census tracts having larger populations of rural residents was, of the nonenvironmental factors, the most conclusive regarding its effects across the two models. The outcomes of analysis, although not entirely supportive of the model presented in this study, suggest to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.

Natural and anthropogenic variations in methane sources during the past two millennia.

PubMed

Sapart, C J; Monteil, G; Prokopiou, M; van de Wal, R S W; Kaplan, J O; Sperlich, P; Krumhardt, K M; van der Veen, C; Houweling, S; Krol, M C; Blunier, T; Sowers, T; Martinerie, P; Witrant, E; Dahl-Jensen, D; Röckmann, T

2012-10-04

Methane is an important greenhouse gas that is emitted from multiple natural and anthropogenic sources. Atmospheric methane concentrations have varied on a number of timescales in the past, but what has caused these variations is not always well understood. The different sources and sinks of methane have specific isotopic signatures, and the isotopic composition of methane can therefore help to identify the environmental drivers of variations in atmospheric methane concentrations. Here we present high-resolution carbon isotope data (δ(13)C content) for methane from two ice cores from Greenland for the past two millennia. We find that the δ(13)C content underwent pronounced centennial-scale variations between 100 BC and AD 1600. With the help of two-box model calculations, we show that the centennial-scale variations in isotope ratios can be attributed to changes in pyrogenic and biogenic sources. We find correlations between these source changes and both natural climate variability--such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age--and changes in human population and land use, such as the decline of the Roman empire and the Han dynasty, and the population expansion during the medieval period.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurian, Patrick L.; Small, Mitchell J.; Lockwood, John R.; Schervish, Mark J.

2001-08-01

A simulation model for estimating compliance behavior and resulting costs at U.S. Community Water Suppliers is developed and applied to the evaluation of a more stringent maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic. Probability distributions of source water arsenic concentrations are simulated using a statistical model conditioned on system location (state) and source water type (surface water or groundwater). This model is fit to two recent national surveys of source waters, then applied with the model explanatory variables for the population of U.S. Community Water Suppliers. Existing treatment types and arsenic removal efficiencies are also simulated. Utilities with finished water arsenic concentrations above the proposed MCL are assumed to select the least cost option compatible with their existing treatment from among 21 available compliance strategies and processes for meeting the standard. Estimated costs and arsenic exposure reductions at individual suppliers are aggregated to estimate the national compliance cost, arsenic exposure reduction, and resulting bladder cancer risk reduction. Uncertainties in the estimates are characterized based on uncertainties in the occurrence model parameters, existing treatment types, treatment removal efficiencies, costs, and the bladder cancer dose-response function for arsenic.

The proper treatment of language acquisition and change in a population setting.

PubMed

Niyogi, Partha; Berwick, Robert C

2009-06-23

Language acquisition maps linguistic experience, primary linguistic data (PLD), onto linguistic knowledge, a grammar. Classically, computational models of language acquisition assume a single target grammar and one PLD source, the central question being whether the target grammar can be acquired from the PLD. However, real-world learners confront populations with variation, i.e., multiple target grammars and PLDs. Removing this idealization has inspired a new class of population-based language acquisition models. This paper contrasts 2 such models. In the first, iterated learning (IL), each learner receives PLD from one target grammar but different learners can have different targets. In the second, social learning (SL), each learner receives PLD from possibly multiple targets, e.g., from 2 parents. We demonstrate that these 2 models have radically different evolutionary consequences. The IL model is dynamically deficient in 2 key respects. First, the IL model admits only linear dynamics and so cannot describe phase transitions, attested rapid changes in languages over time. Second, the IL model cannot properly describe the stability of languages over time. In contrast, the SL model leads to nonlinear dynamics, bifurcations, and possibly multiple equilibria and so suffices to model both the case of stable language populations, mixtures of more than 1 language, as well as rapid language change. The 2 models also make distinct, empirically testable predictions about language change. Using historical data, we show that the SL model more faithfully replicates the dynamics of the evolution of Middle English.

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

Dynamic social networks based on movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharf, Henry; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Johnson, Devin S.; London, Joshua M.; Durban, John W.

2016-01-01

Network modeling techniques provide a means for quantifying social structure in populations of individuals. Data used to define social connectivity are often expensive to collect and based on case-specific, ad hoc criteria. Moreover, in applications involving animal social networks, collection of these data is often opportunistic and can be invasive. Frequently, the social network of interest for a given population is closely related to the way individuals move. Thus, telemetry data, which are minimally invasive and relatively inexpensive to collect, present an alternative source of information. We develop a framework for using telemetry data to infer social relationships among animals. To achieve this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with an underlying dynamic social network controlling movement of individuals via two mechanisms: an attractive effect and an aligning effect. We demonstrate the model and its ability to accurately identify complex social behavior in simulation, and apply our model to telemetry data arising from killer whales. Using auxiliary information about the study population, we investigate model validity and find the inferred dynamic social network is consistent with killer whale ecology and expert knowledge.

Temporal variability of local abundance, sex ratio and activity in the Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casula, P.; Nichols, J.D.

2003-01-01

When capturing and marking of individuals is possible, the application of newly developed capture-recapture models can remove several sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters such as local abundance and sex ratio. For example, observation of distorted sex ratios in counts or captures can reflect either different abundances of the sexes or different sex-specific capture probabilities, and capture-recapture models can help distinguish between these two possibilities. Robust design models and a model selection procedure based on information-theoretic methods were applied to study the local population structure of the endemic Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon gennargenti. Seasonal variations of abundance, plus daily and weather-related variations of active populations of males and females were investigated. Evidence was found of protandry and male pioneering of the breeding space. Temporary emigration probability, which describes the proportion of the population not exposed to capture (e.g. absent from the study area) during the sampling process, was estimated, differed between sexes, and was related to temperature, a factor known to influence animal activity. The correlation between temporary emigration and average daily temperature suggested interpreting temporary emigration as inactivity of animals. Robust design models were used successfully to provide a detailed description of the population structure and activity in this butterfly and are recommended for studies of local abundance and animal activity in the field.

Feeding ducks, bacterial chemotaxis, and the Gini index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peaudecerf, François J.; Goldstein, Raymond E.

2015-08-01

Classic experiments on the distribution of ducks around separated food sources found consistency with the "ideal free" distribution in which the local population is proportional to the local supply rate. Motivated by this experiment and others, we examine the analogous problem in the microbial world: the distribution of chemotactic bacteria around multiple nearby food sources. In contrast to the optimization of uptake rate that may hold at the level of a single cell in a spatially varying nutrient field, nutrient consumption by a population of chemotactic cells will modify the nutrient field, and the uptake rate will generally vary throughout the population. Through a simple model we study the distribution of resource uptake in the presence of chemotaxis, consumption, and diffusion of both bacteria and nutrients. Borrowing from the field of theoretical economics, we explore how the Gini index can be used as a means to quantify the inequalities of uptake. The redistributive effect of chemotaxis can lead to a phenomenon we term "chemotactic levelling," and the influence of these results on population fitness are briefly considered.

Binaries, cluster dynamics and population studies of stars and stellar phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanbeveren, Dany

2005-10-01

The effects of binaries on population studies of stars and stellar phenomena have been investigated over the past 3 decades by many research groups. Here we will focus mainly on the work that has been done recently in Brussels and we will consider the following topics: the effect of binaries on overall galactic chemical evolutionary models and on the rates of different types of supernova, the population of point-like X-ray sources where we distinguish the standard high mass X-ray binaries and the ULXs, a UFO-scenario for the formation of WR+OB binaries in dense star systems. Finally we critically discuss the possible effect of rotation on population studies.

A Population Consequence of Acoustic Disturbance Model for Cuviers beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris) in Southern California

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

two sources. The energetics model that will underpin both PCoD models for Md and Zc has also been published (New et al 2013). The full PCoD model...to Zc on SCORE. We will also be able to use the simplified PCoD model for beaked whales currently being developed under the ONR-funded project...34Using an interim PCoD protocol to assess the effects of disturbance associated with US Navy exercises on marine mammal populations”. This project will

Effects of watershed land use on nitrogen concentrations and δ15 nitrogen in groundwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Marci L.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; McClelland, J.W.; Valiela, I.

2006-01-01

Eutrophication is a major agent of change affecting freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems. It is largely driven by transportation of nitrogen from natural and anthropogenic sources. Research is needed to quantify this nitrogen delivery and to link the delivery to specific land-derived sources. In this study we measured nitrogen concentrations and δ 15N values in seepage water entering three freshwater ponds and six estuaries on Cape Cod, Massachusetts and assessed how they varied with different types of land use. Nitrate concentrations and δ 15N values in groundwater reflected land use in developed and pristine watersheds. In particular, watersheds with larger populations delivered larger nitrate loads with higher δ 15N values to receiving waters. The enriched δ 15N values confirmed nitrogen loading model results identifying wastewater contributions from septic tanks as the major N source. Furthermore, it was apparent that N coastal sources had a relatively larger impact on the N loads and isotopic signatures than did inland N sources further upstream in the watersheds. This finding suggests that management priorities could focus on coastal sources as a first course of action. This would require management constraints on a much smaller population.

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC.

PubMed

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-06

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-01

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

DOE PAGES

van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; ...

2016-02-14

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections acrossmore » models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections acrossmore » models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.« less

Effective Population Size, Genetic Variation, and Their Relevance for Conservation: The Bighorn Sheep in Tiburon Island and Comparisons with Managed Artiodactyls

PubMed Central

Gasca-Pineda, Jaime; Cassaigne, Ivonne; Alonso, Rogelio A.; Eguiarte, Luis E.

2013-01-01

The amount of genetic diversity in a finite biological population mostly depends on the interactions among evolutionary forces and the effective population size (N e) as well as the time since population establishment. Because the N e estimation helps to explore population demographic history, and allows one to predict the behavior of genetic diversity through time, N e is a key parameter for the genetic management of small and isolated populations. Here, we explored an N e-based approach using a bighorn sheep population on Tiburon Island, Mexico (TI) as a model. We estimated the current (N crnt) and ancestral stable (N stbl) inbreeding effective population sizes as well as summary statistics to assess genetic diversity and the demographic scenarios that could explain such diversity. Then, we evaluated the feasibility of using TI as a source population for reintroduction programs. We also included data from other bighorn sheep and artiodactyl populations in the analysis to compare their inbreeding effective size estimates. The TI population showed high levels of genetic diversity with respect to other managed populations. However, our analysis suggested that TI has been under a genetic bottleneck, indicating that using individuals from this population as the only source for reintroduction could lead to a severe genetic diversity reduction. Analyses of the published data did not show a strict correlation between H E and N crnt estimates. Moreover, we detected that ancient anthropogenic and climatic pressures affected all studied populations. We conclude that the estimation of N crnt and N stbl are informative genetic diversity estimators and should be used in addition to summary statistics for conservation and population management planning. PMID:24147115

A Population Synthesis Study of Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, E. S.; Briggs, M. S.; Stanbro, M.; Dwyer, J. R.; Mailyan, B. G.; Roberts, O.

2017-12-01

In astrophysics, population synthesis models are tools used to determine what mix of stars could be consistent with the observations, e.g. how the intrinsic mass-to-light ratio changes by the measurement process. A similar technique could be used to understand the production of TGFs. The models used for this type of population study probe the conditions of electron acceleration inside the high electric field regions of thunderstorms, i.e. acceleration length, electric field strength, and beaming angles. In this work, we use a Monte Carlo code to generate bremsstrahlung photons from relativistic electrons that are accelerated by a large-scale RREA thunderstorm electric field. The code simulates the propagation of photons through the atmosphere at various source altitudes, where they interact with air via Compton scattering, pair production, and photoelectric absorption. We then show the differences in the hardness ratio at spacecraft altitude between these different simulations and compare them with TGF data from Fermi-GBM. Such comparisons can lead to constraints that can be applied to popular TGF beaming models, and help determine whether the population presented in this study is consistent or not with reality.

Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

2018-01-01

This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

Characterization of the near-source population around five ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many ports are currently preparing for increased freight traffic, which may result in elevated local air pollution in areas near the port and freight transportation corridors. In this study, a geographical information system (GIS) analysis of areas surrounding five ports – Port of New York and New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Port of Savannah, Port of Miami, and Port of Houston – was conducted to characterize the population that might be affected by air emissions from the freight transportation network and to determine which sources had the potential to affect the most people. Defining “near-source” populations as living within 300 m of the freight transportation network, namely the port and associated truck routes, railroads, and intermodal facilities (e. g. rail yards and warehouses); near-source populations ranged from 37,000 to over a million within 10 km of a port. At the ports considered, the population living within 300 m of the port boundary constituted <10 % of the total near-source population. Sensitive population exposure was also indicated, such as the 81 day care centers and K-12 schools in near-source environments within 2 km of the Port of New York and New Jersey. Minority groups constituted 55 % to 85 % of the near-source populations in the five port areas. For four of the five ports, the mean and median income of the near-source population was lower and the minority percentage was higher than the population living adjacent to the near-sou

Giant impactors - Plausible sizes and populations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, William K.; Vail, S. M.

1986-01-01

The largest sizes of planetesimals required to explain spin properties of planets are investigated in the context of the impact-trigger hypothesis of lunar origin. Solar system models with different large impactor sources are constructed and stochastic variations in obliquities and rotation periods resulting from each source are studied. The present study finds it highly plausible that earth was struck by a body of about 0.03-0.12 earth masses with enough energy and angular momentum to dislodge mantle material and form the present earth-moon system.

Understanding nature's particle accelerators using high energy gamma-ray survey instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeysekara, Anushka Udara

Nature's particle accelerators, such as Pulsars, Pulsar Wind Nebulae, Active Galactic Nuclei and Supernova Remnants accelerate charged particles to very high energies that then produce high energy photons. The particle acceleration mechanisms and the high energy photon emission mechanisms are poorly understood phenomena. These mechanisms can be understood either by studying individual sources in detail or, alternatively, using the collective properties of a sample of sources. Recent development of GeV survey instruments, such as Fermi-LAT, and TeV survey instruments, such as Milagro, provides a large sample of high energy gamma-ray flux measurements from galactic and extra-galactic sources. In this thesis I provide constraints on GeV and TeV radiation mechanisms using the X-ray-TeV correlations and GeV-TeV correlations. My data sample was obtained from three targeted searches for extragalactic sources and two targeted search for galactic sources, using the existing Milagro sky maps. The first extragalactic candidate list consists of Fermi-LAT GeV extragalactic sources, and the second extragalactic candidate list consists of TeVCat extragalactic sources that have been detected by Imaging Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In both extragalactic candidate lists Markarian 421 was the only source detected by Milagro. A comparison between the Markarian 421 time-averaged flux, measured by Milagro, and the flux measurements of transient states, measured by IACTs, is discussed. The third extragalactic candidate list is a list of potential TeV emitting BL Lac candidates that was synthesized using X-ray observations of BL Lac objects and a Synchrotron Self-Compton model. Milagro's sensitivity was not sufficient to detect any of those candidates. However, the 95% confidence flux upper limits of those sources were above the predicted flux. Therefore, these results provide evidence to conclude that the Synchrotron Self-Compton model for BL Lac objects is still a viable model. Targeted searches for galactic candidates were able to measure TeV emission associated with 14 Fermi-LAT GeV pulsars. In this thesis I also presented a new multi-wavelength technique that I developed to isolate the flux correlation factor (fΩ ) of pulsars as a function of pulsar spin down luminosity. The correlation between fΩ and pulsar spin-down luminosity for a Fermi-LAT GeV pulsar sample was measured using the measurements obtained in the Milagro targeted search performed for galactic sources and from the literature. The measured correlation has some features that favor the Outer Gap model over the Polar Cap, Slot Gap and One Pole Caustic models for pulsar emission in the energy range of 0.1 to 100 GeV. However, these simulated models failed to explain many other important pulsar population characteristics. Therefore, further improvements on the galactic pulsar population simulations are needed to provide tighter constraints.

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Moran, Sean; McHugh, Peter; Bernall, Shana; Fredenberg, Wade; DosSantos, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density-independent perturbations.

A hierarchical integrated population model for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Halstead, Brian J.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne; Howe, Kristy B.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Reese, Kerry P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Casazza, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) are endemic to sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems throughout Western North America. Populations of sage-grouse have declined in distribution and abundance across the range of the species (Schroeder and others, 2004; Knick and Connelly, 2011), largely as a result of human disruption of sagebrush communities (Knick and Connelly, 2011). The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS) represents sage-grouse populations that are geographically isolated and genetically distinct (Benedict and others, 2003; Oyler-McCance and others, 2005) and that are present at the extreme southwestern distribution of the sage-grouse range (Schroeder and others, 2004), straddling the border of California and Nevada. Subpopulations of sage-grouse in the DPS may be at increased risk of extirpation because of a substantial loss of sagebrush habitat and lack of connectivity (Oyler-McCance and others, 2005). Sage-grouse in the Bi-State DPS represent small, localized breeding populations distributed across 18,325 km2. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently (2014) is evaluating the Bi-State DPS as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, independent of other sage-grouse populations. This DPS was designated as a higher priority for listing than sage-grouse in other parts of the species’ range (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2010). Range-wide population analyses for sage-grouse have included portions of the Bi-State DPS (Sage and Columbian Sharp-tailed Grouse Technical Committee 2008; Garton and others, 2011). Although these analyses are informative, the underlying data only represent a portion of the DPS and are comprised of lek count observations only. A thorough examination of population dynamics and persistence that includes multiple subpopulations and represents the majority of the DPS is largely lacking. Furthermore, fundamental information on population growth rate (i.e., finite rate of change, λ) and specific demographic parameters that explain sources of variation in λ within different subpopulations would be valuable for making conservation and management decisions for this DPS. During 2003–12, agencies and universities collaborated to conduct extensive monitoring of sage-grouse populations within the Bi-State DPS. Data regarding lek attendance, movement, and survival of sage-grouse across multiple life stages were documented. Specifically, sage-grouse from nearly all subpopulations were marked and tracked across multiple seasons using radio-telemetry techniques. A hierarchical integrated population modeling (IPM) approach was used to derive demographic parameters for the Bi-State DPS using the large amount of data collected over a 10-year period. This modeling approach allows integration of multiple data sources to inform population growth rates and population vital rates for the Bi-State DPS overall, as well as for individual subpopulations. These models are more informative than other models because they integrate inputs of demographic data (for example, survival and fecundity rates) and survey data (for example, lek observations). The findings here will help characterize population growth rates within the Bi-State DPS.

Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation.

PubMed

Wilkinson, D; Bennett, R; McFarlane, I; Rushton, S; Shirley, M; Smith, G C

2009-10-01

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Open source electronic health records and chronic disease management.

PubMed

Goldwater, Jason C; Kwon, Nancy J; Nathanson, Ashley; Muckle, Alison E; Brown, Alexa; Cornejo, Kerri

2014-02-01

To study and report on the use of open source electronic health records (EHR) to assist with chronic care management within safety net medical settings, such as community health centers (CHC). The study was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago from April to September 2010. The NORC team undertook a comprehensive environmental scan, including a literature review, a dozen key informant interviews using a semistructured protocol, and a series of site visits to CHC that currently use an open source EHR. Two of the sites chosen by NORC were actively using an open source EHR to assist in the redesign of their care delivery system to support more effective chronic disease management. This included incorporating the chronic care model into an CHC and using the EHR to help facilitate its elements, such as care teams for patients, in addition to maintaining health records on indigent populations, such as tuberculosis status on homeless patients. The ability to modify the open-source EHR to adapt to the CHC environment and leverage the ecosystem of providers and users to assist in this process provided significant advantages in chronic care management. Improvements in diabetes management, controlled hypertension and increases in tuberculosis vaccinations were assisted through the use of these open source systems. The flexibility and adaptability of open source EHR demonstrated its utility and viability in the provision of necessary and needed chronic disease care among populations served by CHC.

Rhythmic Components in Extracranial Brain Signals Reveal Multifaceted Task Modulation of Overlapping Neuronal Activity

PubMed Central

van Ede, Freek; Maris, Eric

2016-01-01

Oscillatory neuronal activity is implicated in many cognitive functions, and its phase coupling between sensors may reflect networks of communicating neuronal populations. Oscillatory activity is often studied using extracranial recordings and compared between experimental conditions. This is challenging, because there is overlap between sensor-level activity generated by different sources, and this can obscure differential experimental modulations of these sources. Additionally, in extracranial data, sensor-level phase coupling not only reflects communicating populations, but can also be generated by a current dipole, whose sensor-level phase coupling does not reflect source-level interactions. We present a novel method, which is capable of separating and characterizing sources on the basis of their phase coupling patterns as a function of space, frequency and time (trials). Importantly, this method depends on a plausible model of a neurobiological rhythm. We present this model and an accompanying analysis pipeline. Next, we demonstrate our approach, using magnetoencephalographic (MEG) recordings during a cued tactile detection task as a case study. We show that the extracted components have overlapping spatial maps and frequency content, which are difficult to resolve using conventional pairwise measures. Because our decomposition also provides trial loadings, components can be readily contrasted between experimental conditions. Strikingly, we observed heterogeneity in alpha and beta sources with respect to whether their activity was suppressed or enhanced as a function of attention and performance, and this happened both in task relevant and irrelevant regions. This heterogeneity contrasts with the common view that alpha and beta amplitude over sensory areas are always negatively related to attention and performance. PMID:27336159

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

2012-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted.

Human Oral Mucosa and Gingiva

PubMed Central

Zhang, Q.Z.; Nguyen, A.L.; Yu, W.H.; Le, A.D.

2012-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) represent a heterogeneous population of progenitor cells with self-renewal and multipotent differentiation potential. Aside from their regenerative role, extensive in vitro and in vivo studies have demonstrated that MSCs are capable of potent immunomodulatory effects on a variety of innate and adaptive immune cells. In this article, we will review recent experimental studies on the characterization of a unique population of MSCs derived from human oral mucosa and gingiva, especially their immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory functions and their application in the treatment of several in vivo models of inflammatory diseases. The ease of isolation, accessible tissue source, and rapid ex vivo expansion, with maintenance of stable stem-cell-like phenotypes, render oral mucosa- and gingiva-derived MSCs a promising alternative cell source for MSC-based therapies. PMID:22988012

Selection of energy source and evolutionary stable strategies for power plants under financial intervention of government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Mahmoudi, Reza

2017-09-01

Currently, many socially responsible governments adopt economic incentives and deterrents to manage environmental impacts of electricity suppliers. Considering the Stackelberg leadership of the government, the government's role in the competition of power plants in an electricity market is investigated. A one-population evolutionary game model of power plants is developed to study how their production strategy depends on tariffs levied by the government. We establish that a unique evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) for the population exists. Numerical examples demonstrate that revenue maximization and environment protection policies of the government significantly affect the production ESS of competitive power plants. The results reveal that the government can introduce a green energy source as an ESS of the competitive power plants by imposing appropriate tariffs.

Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2009-01-01

Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

Epigenetics: relevance and implications for public health.

PubMed

Rozek, Laura S; Dolinoy, Dana C; Sartor, Maureen A; Omenn, Gilbert S

2014-01-01

Improved understanding of the multilayer regulation of the human genome has led to a greater appreciation of environmental, nutritional, and epigenetic risk factors for human disease. Chromatin remodeling, histone tail modifications, and DNA methylation are dynamic epigenetic changes responsive to external stimuli. Careful interpretation can provide insights for actionable public health through collaboration between population and basic scientists and through integration of multiple data sources. We review key findings in environmental epigenetics both in human population studies and in animal models, and discuss the implications of these results for risk assessment and public health protection. To ultimately succeed in identifying epigenetic mechanisms leading to complex phenotypes and disease, researchers must integrate the various animal models, human clinical approaches, and human population approaches while paying attention to life-stage sensitivity, to generate effective prescriptions for human health evaluation and disease prevention.

Cytonuclear Theory for Haplodiploid Species and X-Linked Genes. I. Hardy-Weinberg Dynamics and Continent-Island, Hybrid Zone Models

PubMed Central

Goodisman, MAD.; Asmussen, M. A.

1997-01-01

We develop models that describe the cytonuclear structure for either a cytoplasmic and nuclear marker in a haplodiploid species or a cytoplasmic and X-linked marker in a diploid species. Sex-specific disequilibrium statistics that summarize nonrandom cytonuclear associations in such systems are defined, and their basic Hardy-Weinberg dynamics and admixture formulae are delimited. We focus on the context of hybrid zones and develop continent-island models whereby individuals from two genetically differentiated source populations migrate into and mate within a single zone of admixture. We examine the effects of differential migration of the sexes, assortative mating by pure type females, and census time (relative to mating and migration), as well as special cases of random mating and migration subsumed under the general models. We show that pure type individuals and nonzero cytonuclear disequilibria can be maintained within a hybrid zone if there is continued migration from both source populations, and that females generally have a greater influence over these cytonuclear variables than males. The resulting theoretical framework can be used to estimate the rates of assortative mating and sex-specific gene flow in hybrid zones and other zones of admixture involving haplodiploid or sex-linked cytonuclear data. PMID:9286692

Genetic consequences of trumpeter swan (Cygnus buccinator) reintroductions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransler, F.A.; Quinn, T.W.; Oyler-McCance, S.J.

2011-01-01

Relocation programs are often initiated to restore threatened species to previously occupied portions of their range. A primary challenge of restoration efforts is to translocate individuals in a way that prevents loss of genetic diversity and decreases differentiation relative to source populations-a challenge that becomes increasingly difficult when remnant populations of the species are already genetically depauperate. Trumpeter swans were previously extirpated in the entire eastern half of their range. Physical translocations of birds over the last 70 years have restored the species to portions of its historical range. Despite the long history of management, there has been little monitoring of the genetic outcomes of these restoration attempts. We assessed the consequences of this reintroduction program by comparing patterns of genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci across four restoration flocks (three wild-released, one captive) and their source populations. We found that a wild-released population established from a single source displayed a trend toward reduced genetic diversity relative to and significant genetic differentiation from its source population, though small founder population effects may also explain this pattern. Wild-released flocks restored from multiple populations maintained source levels of genetic variation and lacked significant differentiation from at least one of their sources. Further, the flock originating from a single source revealed significantly lower levels of genetic variation than those established from multiple sources. The distribution of genetic variation in the captive flock was similar to its source. While the case of trumpeter swans provides evidence that restorations from multiple versus single source populations may better preserve natural levels of genetic diversity, more studies are needed to understand the general applicability of this management strategy. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. (outside the USA).

ESTUARINE-OCEAN EXCHANGE IN A NORTH PACIFIC ESTUARY: COMPARISON OF STEADY STATE AND DYNAMIC MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Nutrient levels in coastal waters must be accurately assessed to determine the nutrient effects of increasing populations on coastal ecosystems. To accomplish this goal, in-field data with sufficient temporal resolution are required to define nutrient sources and sinks, and to ul...

ESTIMATING NITROGEN AND TIDAL EXCHANGE IN A NORTH PACIFIC ESTUARY WITH EPA'S VISUAL PLUMES PDSW MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate assessments of nutrient levels in coastal waters are required to determine the nutrient effects of increasing population pressure on coastal ecosystems. To accomplish this goal, in-field data with sufficient temporal resolution are required to define nutrient sources an...

ESTIMATING NITROGEN AND TIDAL EXCHANGE IN A NORTH PACIFIC ESTUARY WITH EPA'S VISUAL PLUMES PDSW MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate assessments of nutrient levels in coastal waters are required to determine the nutrient effects of increasing population pressure on coastal ecosystems. To accomplish this goal, in-field data with sufficient temporal resolution are required to define nutrient sources and...

Modeling Meaning in Life: The Teacher as Servant Leader

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Douglas V.; Marlowe, Mike

2005-01-01

Working with a population of students with serious emotional disturbance is both challenging and rewarding. Unfortunately, it can be more challenging than rewarding, and many wonderful professionals leave the field due to burnout and frustration. A major source of burnout is the personal conflict that occurs between teachers with predetermined…

Bayesian reconstruction of transmission within outbreaks using genomic variants.

PubMed

De Maio, Nicola; Worby, Colin J; Wilson, Daniel J; Stoesser, Nicole

2018-04-01

Pathogen genome sequencing can reveal details of transmission histories and is a powerful tool in the fight against infectious disease. In particular, within-host pathogen genomic variants identified through heterozygous nucleotide base calls are a potential source of information to identify linked cases and infer direction and time of transmission. However, using such data effectively to model disease transmission presents a number of challenges, including differentiating genuine variants from those observed due to sequencing error, as well as the specification of a realistic model for within-host pathogen population dynamics. Here we propose a new Bayesian approach to transmission inference, BadTrIP (BAyesian epiDemiological TRansmission Inference from Polymorphisms), that explicitly models evolution of pathogen populations in an outbreak, transmission (including transmission bottlenecks), and sequencing error. BadTrIP enables the inference of host-to-host transmission from pathogen sequencing data and epidemiological data. By assuming that genomic variants are unlinked, our method does not require the computationally intensive and unreliable reconstruction of individual haplotypes. Using simulations we show that BadTrIP is robust in most scenarios and can accurately infer transmission events by efficiently combining information from genetic and epidemiological sources; thanks to its realistic model of pathogen evolution and the inclusion of epidemiological data, BadTrIP is also more accurate than existing approaches. BadTrIP is distributed as an open source package (https://bitbucket.org/nicofmay/badtrip) for the phylogenetic software BEAST2. We apply our method to reconstruct transmission history at the early stages of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, showcasing the power of within-host genomic variants to reconstruct transmission events.

The cumulative MeHg and PCBs exposure and risk of tribal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Studies have shown that the U.S. population continues to be exposed to methyl mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) due to the long half-life of those environmental contaminants. Fish intake of Tribal populations is much higher than the U.S. general population due to dietary habits and unique cultural practices. Large fish tissue concentration data sets from the Environmental Protections Agency’s (EPA’s) Office of Water, USGS’s EMMMA program, and other data sources, were integrated, analyzed, and combined with recent tribal fish intake data for exposure analyses using the dietary module within EPA’s SHEDS-Multimedia model. SHEDS-Multimedia is a physically-based, probabilistic model, which can simulate cumulative (multiple chemicals) or aggregate (single chemical) exposures over time for a population via various pathways of exposure for a variety of multimedia, multipathway environmental chemicals. Our results show that MeHg and total PCBs exposure of tribal populations from fish are about 3 to 10 and 5 to 15 times higher than the US general population, respectively, and that the estimated exposures pose potential health risks. The cumulative exposures of MeHg and total PCBs will be assessed to generate the joint exposure profiles for Tribal and US general populations. Model sensitivity analyses will identify the important contributions of the cumulative exposures of MeHg and total PCBs such as fish types, locations, and size, and key expos

Modeling unobserved sources of heterogeneity in animal abundance using a Dirichlet process prior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Mukherjee, B.; Zhang, L.; Ghosh, M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

2008-01-01

In surveys of natural populations of animals, a sampling protocol is often spatially replicated to collect a representative sample of the population. In these surveys, differences in abundance of animals among sample locations may induce spatial heterogeneity in the counts associated with a particular sampling protocol. For some species, the sources of heterogeneity in abundance may be unknown or unmeasurable, leading one to specify the variation in abundance among sample locations stochastically. However, choosing a parametric model for the distribution of unmeasured heterogeneity is potentially subject to error and can have profound effects on predictions of abundance at unsampled locations. In this article, we develop an alternative approach wherein a Dirichlet process prior is assumed for the distribution of latent abundances. This approach allows for uncertainty in model specification and for natural clustering in the distribution of abundances in a data-adaptive way. We apply this approach in an analysis of counts based on removal samples of an endangered fish species, the Okaloosa darter. Results of our data analysis and simulation studies suggest that our implementation of the Dirichlet process prior has several attractive features not shared by conventional, fully parametric alternatives. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, Matthew; LeClair, Josh; Wahl, Lindi M.; Zamir, Mair

2017-01-01

We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca) to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters. The simulation tracks bees of different ages and castes, food stores within the colony, pollen and nectar sources and the spatial position of individual foragers outside the hive. We track explicitly the intake of pesticides in individual bees and their ability to metabolize these toxins, such that the impact of sub-lethal doses of pesticides can be explored. Moreover, pathogen populations (in particular, Nosema apis, Nosema cerenae and Varroa mites) have been included in the model and may be introduced at any time or location. The ability to study interactions among pesticides, climate, biodiversity and pathogens in this predictive framework should prove useful to a wide range of researchers studying honey bee populations. To this end, the simulation package is written in open source, object-oriented code (C++) and can be easily modified by the user. Here, we demonstrate the use of the model by exploring the effects of sub-lethal pesticide exposure on the flight behaviour of foragers. PMID:28287445

Agriculture and Health Sectors Collaborate in Addressing Population Health

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Arthur; Boren, Jon; Koukel, Sonja; Ronquillo, Francisco; Davies, Cindy; Nkouaga, Carolina

2017-01-01

PURPOSE Population health is of growing importance in the changing health care environment. The Cooperative Extension Service, housed in each state’s land grant university, has a major impact on population health through its many community-based efforts, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program – Education (SNAP-Ed) nutrition programs, 4-H youth engagement, health and wellness education, and community development. Can the agricultural and health sectors, which usually operate in parallel, mostly unknown to each other, collaborate to address population health? We set out to provide an overview of the collaboration between the Cooperative Extension Service and the health sector in various states and describe a case study of 1 model as it developed in New Mexico. METHODS We conducted a literature review and personally contacted states in which the Cooperative Extension Service is collaborating on a “Health Extension” model with academic health centers or their health systems. We surveyed 6 states in which Health Extension models are being piloted as to their different approaches. For a case study of collaboration in New Mexico, we drew on interviews with the leadership of New Mexico State University’s Cooperative Extension Service in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences; the University of New Mexico (UNM) Health Science Center’s Office for Community Health; and the personal experiences of frontline Cooperative Extension agents and UNM Health Extension officers who collaborated on community projects. RESULTS A growing number of states are linking the agricultural Cooperative Extension Service with academic health centers and with the health care system. In New Mexico, the UNM academic health center has created “Health Extension Rural Offices” based on principles of the Cooperative Extension model. Today, these 2 systems are working collaboratively to address unmet population health needs in their communities. Nationally, the Cooperative Extension Service has formed a steering committee to guide its movement into the health arena. CONCLUSION Resources of the agricultural and health sectors offer communities complementary expertise and resources to address adverse population health outcomes. The collaboration between Cooperative Extension and the health sector is 1 manifestation of this emerging collaboration model termed Health Extension. Initial skepticism and protection of funding sources and leadership roles can be overcome with shared funding from new sources, shared priority setting and decision making, and the initiation of practical, collaborative projects that build personal relationships and trust. PMID:28893819

Population activity statistics dissect subthreshold and spiking variability in V1.

PubMed

Bányai, Mihály; Koman, Zsombor; Orbán, Gergő

2017-07-01

Response variability, as measured by fluctuating responses upon repeated performance of trials, is a major component of neural responses, and its characterization is key to interpret high dimensional population recordings. Response variability and covariability display predictable changes upon changes in stimulus and cognitive or behavioral state, providing an opportunity to test the predictive power of models of neural variability. Still, there is little agreement on which model to use as a building block for population-level analyses, and models of variability are often treated as a subject of choice. We investigate two competing models, the doubly stochastic Poisson (DSP) model assuming stochasticity at spike generation, and the rectified Gaussian (RG) model tracing variability back to membrane potential variance, to analyze stimulus-dependent modulation of both single-neuron and pairwise response statistics. Using a pair of model neurons, we demonstrate that the two models predict similar single-cell statistics. However, DSP and RG models have contradicting predictions on the joint statistics of spiking responses. To test the models against data, we build a population model to simulate stimulus change-related modulations in pairwise response statistics. We use single-unit data from the primary visual cortex (V1) of monkeys to show that while model predictions for variance are qualitatively similar to experimental data, only the RG model's predictions are compatible with joint statistics. These results suggest that models using Poisson-like variability might fail to capture important properties of response statistics. We argue that membrane potential-level modeling of stochasticity provides an efficient strategy to model correlations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Neural variability and covariability are puzzling aspects of cortical computations. For efficient decoding and prediction, models of information encoding in neural populations hinge on an appropriate model of variability. Our work shows that stimulus-dependent changes in pairwise but not in single-cell statistics can differentiate between two widely used models of neuronal variability. Contrasting model predictions with neuronal data provides hints on the noise sources in spiking and provides constraints on statistical models of population activity. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine

PubMed Central

Nelson, Martha I.; Viboud, Cécile; Vincent, Amy L.; Culhane, Marie R.; Detmer, Susan E.; Wentworth, David E.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Holmes, Edward C.; Lemey, Philippe

2015-01-01

The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighboring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the US and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia. PMID:25813399

Quantification of airport community noise impact in terms of noise levels, population density, and human subjective response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, R.

1981-01-01

The Fraction Impact Method (FIM), developed by the National Research Council (NRC) for assessing the amount and physiological effect of noise, is described. Here, the number of people exposed to a given level of noise is multiplied by a weighting factor that depends on noise level. It is pointed out that the Aircraft-noise Levels and Annoyance MOdel (ALAMO), recently developed at NASA Langley Research Center, can perform the NRC fractional impact calculations for given modes of operation at any U.S. airport. The sensitivity of these calculations to errors in estimates of population, noise level, and human subjective response is discussed. It is found that a change in source noise causes a substantially smaller change in contour area than would be predicted simply on the basis of inverse square law considerations. Another finding is that the impact calculations are generally less sensitive to source noise errors than to systematic errors in population or subjective response.

On performance of parametric and distribution-free models for zero-inflated and over-dispersed count responses.

PubMed

Tang, Wan; Lu, Naiji; Chen, Tian; Wang, Wenjuan; Gunzler, Douglas David; Han, Yu; Tu, Xin M

2015-10-30

Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (ZINB) models are widely used to model zero-inflated count responses. These models extend the Poisson and negative binomial (NB) to address excessive zeros in the count response. By adding a degenerate distribution centered at 0 and interpreting it as describing a non-risk group in the population, the ZIP (ZINB) models a two-component population mixture. As in applications of Poisson and NB, the key difference between ZIP and ZINB is the allowance for overdispersion by the ZINB in its NB component in modeling the count response for the at-risk group. Overdispersion arising in practice too often does not follow the NB, and applications of ZINB to such data yield invalid inference. If sources of overdispersion are known, other parametric models may be used to directly model the overdispersion. Such models too are subject to assumed distributions. Further, this approach may not be applicable if information about the sources of overdispersion is unavailable. In this paper, we propose a distribution-free alternative and compare its performance with these popular parametric models as well as a moment-based approach proposed by Yu et al. [Statistics in Medicine 2013; 32: 2390-2405]. Like the generalized estimating equations, the proposed approach requires no elaborate distribution assumptions. Compared with the approach of Yu et al., it is more robust to overdispersed zero-inflated responses. We illustrate our approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.

2014-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 µm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Time-dependent source model of the Lusi mud volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirzaei, M.; Rudolph, M. L.; Manga, M.

2014-12-01

The Lusi mud eruption, near Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, began erupting in May 2006 and continues to erupt today. Previous analyses of surface deformation data suggested an exponential decay of the pressure in the mud source, but did not constrain the geometry and evolution of the source(s) from which the erupting mud and fluids ascend. To understand the spatiotemporal evolution of the mud and fluid sources, we apply a time-dependent inversion scheme to a densely populated InSAR time series of the surface deformation at Lusi. The SAR data set includes 50 images acquired on 3 overlapping tracks of the ALOS L-band satellite between May 2006 and April 2011. Following multitemporal analysis of this data set, the obtained surface deformation time series is inverted in a time-dependent framework to solve for the volume changes of distributed point sources in the subsurface. The volume change distribution resulting from this modeling scheme shows two zones of high volume change underneath Lusi at 0.5-1.5 km and 4-5.5km depth as well as another shallow zone, 7 km to the west of Lusi and underneath the Wunut gas field. The cumulative volume change within the shallow source beneath Lusi is ~2-4 times larger than that of the deep source, whilst the ratio of the Lusi shallow source volume change to that of Wunut gas field is ~1. This observation and model suggest that the Lusi shallow source played a key role in eruption process and mud supply, but that additional fluids do ascend from depths >4 km on eruptive timescales.

The recent and future health burden of air pollution apportioned across U.S. sectors.

PubMed

Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles M; Baker, Kirk

2013-04-16

Recent risk assessments have characterized the overall burden of recent PM2.5 and ozone levels on public health, but generally not the variability of these impacts over time or by sector. Using photochemical source apportionment modeling and a health impact function, we attribute PM2.5 and ozone air quality levels, population exposure and health burden to 23 industrial point, area, mobile and international emission sectors in the Continental U.S. in 2005 and 2016. Our modeled policy scenarios account for a suite of emission control requirements affecting many of these sectors. Between these two years, the number of PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths attributable to power plants and mobile sources falls from about 68,000 (90% confidence interval from 48,000 to 87,000) to about 36,000 (90% confidence intervals from 26,000 to 47,000). Area source mortality risk grows slightly between 2005 and 2016, due largely to population growth. Uncertainties relating to the timing and magnitude of the emission reductions may affect the size of these estimates. The detailed sector-level estimates of the size and distribution of mortality and morbidity risk suggest that the air pollution mortality burden has fallen over time but that many sectors continue to pose a substantial risk to human health.

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

PubMed Central

Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

2014-01-01

Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

Analyzing γ rays of the Galactic Center with deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Sascha; Gómez-Vargas, Germán A.; Hendriks, Luc; Ruiz de Austri, Roberto

2018-05-01

We present the application of convolutional neural networks to a particular problem in gamma ray astronomy. Explicitly, we use this method to investigate the origin of an excess emission of GeV γ rays in the direction of the Galactic Center, reported by several groups by analyzing Fermi-LAT data. Interpretations of this excess include γ rays created by the annihilation of dark matter particles and γ rays originating from a collection of unresolved point sources, such as millisecond pulsars. We train and test convolutional neural networks with simulated Fermi-LAT images based on point and diffuse emission models of the Galactic Center tuned to measured γ ray data. Our new method allows precise measurements of the contribution and properties of an unresolved population of γ ray point sources in the interstellar diffuse emission model. The current model predicts the fraction of unresolved point sources with an error of up to 10% and this is expected to decrease with future work.

Sources and sinks of plastic debris in estuaries: A conceptual model integrating biological, physical and chemical distribution mechanisms.

PubMed

Vermeiren, Peter; Muñoz, Cynthia C; Ikejima, Kou

2016-12-15

Micro- and macroplastic accumulation threatens estuaries worldwide because of the often dense human populations, diverse plastic inputs and high potential for plastic degradation and storage in these ecosystems. Nonetheless, our understanding of plastic sources and sinks remains limited. We designed conceptual models of the local and estuary-wide transport of plastics. We identify processes affecting the position of plastics in the water column; processes related to the mixing of fresh and salt water; and processes resulting from the influences of wind, topography, and organism-plastic interactions. The models identify gaps in the spatial context of plastic-organisms interactions, the chemical behavior of plastics in estuaries, effects of wind on plastic suspension-deposition cycles, and the relative importance of processes affecting the position in the water column. When interpreted in the context of current understanding, sinks with high management potential can be identified. However, source-sink patterns vary among estuary types and with local scale processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A generic open-source software framework supporting scenario simulations in bioterrorist crises.

PubMed

Falenski, Alexander; Filter, Matthias; Thöns, Christian; Weiser, Armin A; Wigger, Jan-Frederik; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Edlund, Stefan; Hu, Kun; Kaufman, James H; Appel, Bernd; Käsbohrer, Annemarie

2013-09-01

Since the 2001 anthrax attack in the United States, awareness of threats originating from bioterrorism has grown. This led internationally to increased research efforts to improve knowledge of and approaches to protecting human and animal populations against the threat from such attacks. A collaborative effort in this context is the extension of the open-source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) simulation and modeling software for agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios. STEM, originally designed to enable community-driven public health disease models and simulations, was extended with new features that enable integration of proprietary data as well as visualization of agent spread along supply and production chains. STEM now provides a fully developed open-source software infrastructure supporting critical modeling tasks such as ad hoc model generation, parameter estimation, simulation of scenario evolution, estimation of effects of mitigation or management measures, and documentation. This open-source software resource can be used free of charge. Additionally, STEM provides critical features like built-in worldwide data on administrative boundaries, transportation networks, or environmental conditions (eg, rainfall, temperature, elevation, vegetation). Users can easily combine their own confidential data with built-in public data to create customized models of desired resolution. STEM also supports collaborative and joint efforts in crisis situations by extended import and export functionalities. In this article we demonstrate specifically those new software features implemented to accomplish STEM application in agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios.

How sustainable is fuelwood use in Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olav Skøien, Jon; Dubois, Gregoire; Mayaux, Philipe; Belward, Alan; Monforti-Ferrario, Fabio; Bodis, Katalin

2013-04-01

If properly managed, the use of fuelwood for heating and cooking is often considered as sustainable; Africa, may be an exception to this rule. The reliance on fuelwood in Africa as a primary energy source by a significant proportion of the population, combined with rapid population growth means that population growth equates to increased pressure on woody biomass resources, even if technological advances in other energy sources (such as solar, wind, improved stoves) reduce the per capita demands for this fuel. Furthermore, a changing climate may change the spatial and temporal patterns of woody biomass production. In this study we used simple models to predict the future fuelwood consumption on the basis of population growth estimates from the UN [UNDESA, 2012] combined with established fuelwood consumption patterns from FAO [FaoStat, 2012], and changes in accessible biomass for Africa for the next70 years, in response to climate change scenarios [Hijmans et al., 2005; Ramirez and Jarvis, 2010]. We combine estimates of the currently available woody biomass [Saatchi et al., 2011], and demand in an indicator which we refer to as depletion time. This is a measure of the time needed before all biomass is consumed, assuming no regrowth - a depletion time of 10 years will call for very fast growing sources of woody biomass to meet need, whereas areas with a depletion time of more than 200 years may be satisfied with much slower growing sources. The depletion time for any given country may change as the need for fuelwood changes, and the availability of biomass changes. Currently, about 10 African states have depletion times under 50 years, and about 20 states have depletion times of over 200 years. By 2050, our estimates indicate that at least 15 countries will have depletion times under 50 years, and some of them even under 10 years, and at least 5 countries will have slipped out of the 200+ year class into shorter depletion times … indeed over 15 countries show depletion times accelerating by a factor of 3 to 5 between now and 2050. For these reasons, we do question fuelwood as a sustainable future energy source in Africa. This study is based on simple models, and we must acknowledge that these initial results are most likely negatively biased for several reasons. With the main results we will discuss the possible shortcomings and relate our results to some studies with more positive assessments of the fuelwood sustainability. FaoStat (2012), Database, http://faostat.fao.org/, accessed on Oct. 22, 2012. Hijmans, R., S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis (2005), Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas, International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Ramirez, J., and A. Jarvis (2010), Disaggregation of Global Circulation Model Outputs. Saatchi, S. S., et al. (2011), Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(24), 9899-9904. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2012), World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm, accessed on Aug. 29, 2012.

Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

our own work for this discussion. DoD Instruction 5000.61 defines model validation as “the pro - cess of determining the degree to which a model and its... determined that RMAT is highly con - crete code, potentially leading to redundancies in the code itself and making RMAT more difficult to maintain...system con - ceptual models valid, and are the data used to support them adequate? (Chapters Two and Three) 2. Are the sources and methods for populating

Global biodiversity monitoring: from data sources to essential biodiversity variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Proenca, Vania; Martin, Laura J.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Fernandez, Miguel; McRae, Louise; Belnap, Jayne; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Garcia-Moreno, Jaime; Gregory, Richard D.; Honrado, Joao P; Jürgens, Norbert; Opige, Michael; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Tiago, Patricia; van Sway, Chris A

2016-01-01

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

Spatial Prediction of Coxiella burnetii Outbreak Exposure via Notified Case Counts in a Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Brooke, Russell J; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E E; Hackert, Volker; Hoebe, Christian J P A; Teunis, Peter F M; Waller, Lance A

2017-01-01

We develop a novel approach to study an outbreak of Q fever in 2009 in the Netherlands by combining a human dose-response model with geostatistics prediction to relate probability of infection and associated probability of illness to an effective dose of Coxiella burnetii. The spatial distribution of the 220 notified cases in the at-risk population are translated into a smooth spatial field of dose. Based on these symptomatic cases, the dose-response model predicts a median of 611 asymptomatic infections (95% range: 410, 1,084) for the 220 reported symptomatic cases in the at-risk population; 2.78 (95% range: 1.86, 4.93) asymptomatic infections for each reported case. The low attack rates observed during the outbreak range from (Equation is included in full-text article.)to (Equation is included in full-text article.). The estimated peak levels of exposure extend to the north-east from the point source with an increasing proportion of asymptomatic infections further from the source. Our work combines established methodology from model-based geostatistics and dose-response modeling allowing for a novel approach to study outbreaks. Unobserved infections and the spatially varying effective dose can be predicted using the flexible framework without assuming any underlying spatial structure of the outbreak process. Such predictions are important for targeting interventions during an outbreak, estimating future disease burden, and determining acceptable risk levels.

A global biogeocenotical biosphere simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moiseyev, N. N.

1980-01-01

This model of the D. Forrester type, constructed in differential equations, predicts the food and mineral supply for the factors biosphere population, depending on two socio-economic factors, until about the year 2500. If contemporary rates of natural resources utilization are maintained and there is no management of the environment, food resources will begin to limit human population growth after 2200, and mineral resources will after 2300. A decrease in the biosphere pollution, increase in effective agricultural production, and discovery of new energy sources may forestall or completely avert the onset of a crisis situation. Conservation measures, according to the model, are to a considerable extent realizable only if carried out simultaneously in both areas.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenstreet, S.; Gladman, B.; Ngo, H.

While computing an improved near-Earth object (NEO) steady-state orbital distribution model, we discovered in the numerical integrations the unexpected production of retrograde orbits for asteroids that had originally exited from the accepted main-belt source regions. Our model indicates that {approx}0.1% (a factor of two uncertainty) of the steady-state NEO population (perihelion q < 1.3 AU) is on retrograde orbits. These rare outcomes typically happen when asteroid orbits flip to a retrograde configuration while in the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and then live for {approx}0.001 to 100 Myr. The model predicts, given the estimated near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population, that amore » few retrograde 0.1-1 km NEAs should exist. Currently, there are two known MPC NEOs with asteroidal designations on retrograde orbits which we therefore claim could be escaped asteroids instead of devolatilized comets. This retrograde NEA population may also answer a long-standing question in the meteoritical literature regarding the origin of high-strength, high-velocity meteoroids on retrograde orbits.« less

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Landscape requirements of a primate population in a human-dominated environment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction As urban and rural land development become widespread features of the global landscape so an understanding of the landscape requirements of displaced and isolated wildlife species becomes increasingly important for conservation planning. In the Cape Peninsula, South Africa, rapid human population growth, and the associated urban and rural land transformation, threatens the sustainability of the local chacma baboon population. Here we analyse spatial data collected from nine of the 12 extant troops to determine their population-level landscape requirements. We use hurdle models to ascertain the key landscape features influencing baboon occurrence and abundance patterns on two hierarchical spatial scales. Results Both spatial scales produced similar results that were ecologically reliable and interpretable. The models indicated that baboons were more likely to occur, and be more abundant, at low altitudes, on steep slopes and in human-modified habitats. The combination of these landscape variables provides baboons with access to the best quality natural and anthropogenic food sources in close proximity to one another and suitable sleeping sites. Surface water did not emerge as an influential landscape feature presumably as the area is not water stressed. Conclusions The model results indicate that land development in the Cape Peninsula has pushed baboons into increasingly marginal natural habitat while simultaneously providing them with predictable and easily accessible food sources in human-modified habitats. The resultant spatial competition between humans and baboons explains the high levels of human-baboon conflict and further erosion of the remaining land fragments is predicted to exacerbate competition. This study demonstrates how the quantification of animal landscape requirements can provide a mechanism for identifying priority conservation areas at the human-wildlife interface. PMID:22269662

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

ODE constrained mixture modelling: a method for unraveling subpopulation structures and dynamics.

PubMed

Hasenauer, Jan; Hasenauer, Christine; Hucho, Tim; Theis, Fabian J

2014-07-01

Functional cell-to-cell variability is ubiquitous in multicellular organisms as well as bacterial populations. Even genetically identical cells of the same cell type can respond differently to identical stimuli. Methods have been developed to analyse heterogeneous populations, e.g., mixture models and stochastic population models. The available methods are, however, either incapable of simultaneously analysing different experimental conditions or are computationally demanding and difficult to apply. Furthermore, they do not account for biological information available in the literature. To overcome disadvantages of existing methods, we combine mixture models and ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. The ODE models provide a mechanistic description of the underlying processes while mixture models provide an easy way to capture variability. In a simulation study, we show that the class of ODE constrained mixture models can unravel the subpopulation structure and determine the sources of cell-to-cell variability. In addition, the method provides reliable estimates for kinetic rates and subpopulation characteristics. We use ODE constrained mixture modelling to study NGF-induced Erk1/2 phosphorylation in primary sensory neurones, a process relevant in inflammatory and neuropathic pain. We propose a mechanistic pathway model for this process and reconstructed static and dynamical subpopulation characteristics across experimental conditions. We validate the model predictions experimentally, which verifies the capabilities of ODE constrained mixture models. These results illustrate that ODE constrained mixture models can reveal novel mechanistic insights and possess a high sensitivity.

Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

2008-04-01

A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

The role of ancestry in TB susceptibility of an admixed South African population.

PubMed

Daya, Michelle; van der Merwe, Lize; van Helden, Paul D; Möller, Marlo; Hoal, Eileen G

2014-07-01

Genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) has been well established and this, taken together with variation in susceptibility observed between different geographic and ethnic populations, implies that susceptibility to TB may in part be affected by ethnicity. In a previous genome-wide TB case-control study (642 cases and 91 controls) of the admixed South African Coloured (SAC) population, we found a positive correlation between African San ancestry and TB susceptibility, and negative correlations with European and Asian ancestries. Since genome-wide data was available for only a small number of controls in the previous study, we endeavored to validate this finding by genotyping a panel of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) in additional individuals, yielding a data set of 918 cases and 507 controls. Ancestry proportions were estimated using the AIMs for each of the source populations of the SAC (African San, African non-San, European, South Asian and East Asian). Using logistic regression models to test for association between TB and ancestry, we confirmed the substantial effect of ancestry on TB susceptibility. We also investigated the effect of adjusting for ancestry in candidate gene TB association studies of the SAC. We report a polymorphism that is no longer significantly associated with TB after adjustment for ancestry, a polymorphism that is significantly associated with TB only after adjustment for ancestry, and a polymorphism where the association significance remains unchanged. By comparing the allele frequencies of these polymorphisms in the source populations of the SAC, we demonstrate that association results are likely to be affected by adjustment for ancestry if allele frequencies differ markedly in the source populations of the SAC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Translocation and early post-release demography of endangered Laysan teal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Seavy, N.E.; Vekasy, M.S.; Klavitter, J.L.; Laniawe, L.P.

2008-01-01

In an attempt to reduce the high extinction risk inherent to small island populations, we translocated wild Laysan teal Anas laysanensis to a portion of its presumed prehistoric range. Most avian translocations lack the strategic post-release monitoring needed to assess early population establishment or failure. Therefore, we monitored the survival and reproduction of all founders, and their first-generation offspring using radio telemetry for 2 years after the first release. Forty-two Laysan teal were sourced directly from the only extant population on Laysan Island and transported 2 days by ship to Midway Atoll. All birds survived the translocation with nutritional and veterinary support, and spent between 4 and 14 days in captivity. Post-release survival of 42 founders was 0.857 (95% CI 0.86-0.99) during 2004-2006 or annualized 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-0.98). Seventeen of 18 founding hens attempted nesting in the first two breeding seasons. Fledgling success was 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.60) in 2005 and 0.63 (95% CI 0.62-0.64) in 2006. The effective founding female population (Ne) was 13. We applied these initial demographic rates to model population growth. The nascent population size increased to >100 after only 2 years post-release (?? = 1.73). If this growth rate continues, the size of the Midway population could surpass the source population before 2010. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

Atmospheric transport and wet deposition of ammonium in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, John T.; Aneja, Viney P.; Dickey, David A.

Wet deposition and transport analysis has been performed for ammonium (NH 4+) in North Carolina, USA. Multiple regression analysis is employed to model the temporal trend and seasonality in monthly volume-weighted mean NH 4+ concentrations in precipitation from 1983 to 1996 at six National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. A significant ( p<0.01) increasing trend beginning in 1990, which corresponds to an annual concentration increase of approximately 9.5%, is detected at the rural Sampson County site (NC35), which is located within a densely populated network of swine and poultry operations. This trend is positively correlated with increasing ammonia (NH 3) emissions related to the vigorous growth of North Carolina's swine population since 1990, particularly in the state's Coastal Plain region. A source-receptor regression model, which utilizes weekly NH 4+ concentrations in precipitation in conjunction with boundary layer air mass back trajectories, is developed to statistically test for the influence of a particular NH 3 source region on NH 4+ concentrations at surrounding NADP/NTN sites for the years 1995-1996. NH 3 emissions from this source region, primarily evolving from swine and poultry operations, are found to increase NH 4+ concentration in precipitation at sites up to ≈80 km away. At the Scotland County (NC36) and Wake County (NC41) sites, mean NH 4+ concentrations show increases of at least 44% for weeks during which 25% or more back trajectories are influenced by this source region.

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins,, Lewis G.

2008-01-01

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations inherent in both. A major task of this study was to improve the overall methodology used to conduct HBC stock assessment by addressing concerns identified in an independent review conducted in 2003 (Kitchell and others, 2003). The review report identified that the current technique of assigning age to individual fish based on length was a potential source of bias in ASMR estimates of abundance and recruitment, and called for a more complete examination of this potential error source. Additionally, the review suggested that further work to develop procedures to better arbitrate among alternative assessment models (e.g., ASMR 1?3) would be beneficial. To address the first of the concerns identified by the independent review, this study uses mark-recapture data to develop a temperature-dependent growth model to characterize the relationship between HBC age and length. This model attempts to account for temperature differences resulting from both ontogenetic habitat shifts between the Little Colorado and the mainstem Colorado Rivers as well as seasonal variation in water temperature within the LCR. The resulting growth model is then used to characterize the error in assigning age to individual fish based on length. Results presented in this study suggest that ageing error does not result in large bias in either abundance or recruitment estimates from the ASMR model. However, incorporating ageing error into the assessment does result in less precise estimates, particularly for recruitment. To address the second concern brought forward in the review report related to model selection procedures, this study arbitrated among the competing models by both examining model fit using Pearson residual analyses and considering information theoretic measures. Although adult abundance estimates and trend varied little among all models considered, these procedures identified ASMR 3 as the model whose underlying assumptions were most consistent with the data. Because ASMR 3 is

The Human Exposure Model (HEM): A Tool to Support Rapid ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The US EPA is developing an open and publically available software program called the Human Exposure Model (HEM) to provide near-field exposure information for Life Cycle Impact Assessments (LCIAs). Historically, LCIAs have often omitted impacts from near-field sources of exposure. The use of consumer products often results in near-field exposures (exposures that occur directly from the use of a product) that are larger than environmentally mediated exposures (i.e. far-field sources)1,2. Failure to consider near-field exposures could result in biases in LCIA-based determinations of the relative sustainability of consumer products. HEM is designed to provide this information.Characterizing near-field sources of chemical exposures present a challenge to LCIA practitioners. Unlike far-field sources, where multimedia mass balance models have been used to determine human exposure, near-field sources require product-specific models of human exposure and considerable information on product use and product composition. Such information is difficult and time-consuming to gather and curate. The HEM software will characterize the distribution of doses and product intake fractions2 across populations of product users and bystanders, allowing for differentiation by various demographic characteristics. The tool incorporates a newly developed database of the composition of more than 17,000 products, data on physical and chemical properties for more than 2,000 chemicals, and mo

Dioxin emissions from a solid waste incinerator and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Floret, Nathalie; Mauny, Frédéric; Challier, Bruno; Arveux, Patrick; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Viel, Jean-François

2003-07-01

It is not clear whether low environmental doses of dioxin affect the general population. We previously detected a cluster of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma around a French municipal solid waste incinerator with high dioxin emissions. To explore the environmental route suggested by these findings, we carried out a population-based case-control study in the same area. We compared 222 incident cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed between 1980 and 1995 and controls randomly selected from the 1990 population census, using a 10-to-1 match. Dioxin ground-level concentrations were modeled with a second-generation Gaussian-type dispersion model, yielding four dioxin exposure categories. The latter were linked to individual places of residence, using Geographic Information System technology. The risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma was 2.3 times higher (95% confidence interval = 1.4-3.8) among individuals living in the area with the highest dioxin concentration than among those living in the area with the lowest dioxin concentration. No increased risk was found for the intermediate dioxin exposure categories. Adjustment for a wide range of socioeconomic characteristics at the block group level did not alter the results. Although emissions from incinerators are usually not regarded as an important source of exposure to dioxins compared with other background sources, our findings support the hypothesis that environmental dioxins increase the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma among the population living in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator.

A model study of assisted adiabatic transfer of population in the presence of collisional dephasing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masuda, Shumpei, E-mail: shumpei.masuda@aalto.fi; Rice, Stuart A., E-mail: s-rice@uchicago.edu

2015-06-28

Previous studies have demonstrated that when experimental conditions generate non-adiabatic dynamics that prevents highly efficient population transfer between states of an isolated system by stimulated Raman adiabatic passage (STIRAP), the addition of an auxiliary counter-diabatic field (CDF) can restore most or all of that efficiency. This paper examines whether that strategy is also successful in a non-isolated system in which the energies of the states fluctuate, e.g., when a solute is subject to collisions with solvent. We study population transfer in two model systems: (i) the three-state system used by Demirplak and Rice [J. Chem. Phys. 116, 8028 (2002)] andmore » (ii) a four-state system, derived from the simulation studies of Demirplak and Rice [J. Chem. Phys. 125, 194517 (2006)], that mimics HCl in liquid Ar. Simulation studies of the vibrational manifold of HCl in dense fluid Ar show that the collision induced vibrational energy level fluctuations have asymmetric distributions. Representations of these asymmetric energy level fluctuation distributions are used in both models (i) and (ii). We identify three sources of degradation of the efficiency of STIRAP generated selective population transfer in model (ii): too small pulse areas of the laser fields, unwanted interference arising from use of strong fields, and the vibrational detuning. For both models (i) and (ii), our examination of the efficiency of STIRAP + CDF population transfer under the influence of the asymmetric distribution of the vibrational energy fluctuations shows that there is a range of field strengths and pulse durations under which STIRAP + CDF control of population transfer has greater efficiency than does STIRAP generated population transfer.« less

What could have caused pre-industrial biomass burning emissions to exceed current rates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, G. R.; Peters, W.; van Leeuwen, T. T.; Giglio, L.

2012-08-01

Recent studies based on trace gas mixing ratios in ice cores and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning emissions over the past millennium exceeded contemporary emissions by up to a factor of 4 for certain time periods. This is surprising because various sources of biomass burning are linked with population density, which has increased over the past centuries. Here we have analyzed how emissions from several biomass burning sources could have fluctuated to yield emissions that are in correspondence with recent results based on ice core mixing ratios of carbon monoxide (CO) and its isotopic signature measured at South Pole station (SPO). Based on estimates of contemporary fire emissions and the TM5 chemical transport model, we found that CO mixing ratios at SPO are more sensitive to emissions from South America and Australia than from Africa, and are relatively insensitive to emissions from the Northern Hemisphere. We then explored how various biomass burning sources may have varied over the past centuries and what the resulting emissions and corresponding CO mixing ratio at SPO would be, using population density variations to reconstruct sources driven by humans (e.g. fuelwood burning) and a new model to relate savanna emissions to changes in fire return times. We found that to match the observed ice core CO data all savannas in the Southern Hemisphere had to burn annually, or bi-annually in combination with deforestation and slash and burn agriculture matching current levels despite much lower population densities and lack of machinery to aid the deforestation process. While possible, these scenarios are unlikely and in conflict with current literature. However, we do show the large potential for increased emissions from savannas in a pre-industrial world. This is mainly because in the past, fuel beds were probably less fragmented compared to the current situation; we show that the majority of savannas have not burned in the past 10 yr, even in Africa which is considered "the burning continent". Our new modelling results, together with existing literature, indicate that no definitive conclusions can be drawn about unprecedentedly high or low biomass burning rates from current data analyses.

Consequences of a refuge for the predator-prey dynamics of a wolf-elk system in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Goldberg, Joshua F; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bardsley, John

2014-01-01

Refugia can affect predator-prey dynamics via movements between refuge and non-refuge areas. We examine the influence of a refuge on population dynamics in a large mammal predator-prey system. Wolves (Canis lupus) have recolonized much of their former range in North America, and as a result, ungulate prey have exploited refugia to reduce predation risk with unknown impacts on wolf-prey dynamics. We examined the influence of a refuge on elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolf population dynamics in Banff National Park. Elk occupy the Banff townsite with little predation, whereas elk in the adjoining Bow Valley experience higher wolf predation. The Banff refuge may influence Bow Valley predator-prey dynamics through source-sink movements. To test this hypothesis, we used 26 years of wolf and elk population counts and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method to fit five predator-prey models: 1) with no source-sink movements, 2) with elk density-dependent dispersal from the refuge to the non-refuge, 3) with elk predation risk avoidance movements from the non-refuge to the refuge, 4) with differential movement rates between refuge and non-refuge, and 5) with short-term, source-sink wolf movements. Model 1 provided the best fit of the data, as measured by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In the top model, Banff and Bow Valley elk had median growth rates of 0.08 and 0.03 (95% credibility intervals [CIs]: 0.027-0.186 and 0.001-0.143), respectively, Banff had a median carrying capacity of 630 elk (95% CI: 471.9-2676.9), Bow Valley elk had a median wolf encounter rate of 0.02 (95% CI: 0.013-0.030), and wolves had a median death rate of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.146-0.335) and a median conversion efficiency of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.031-0.124). We found little evidence for potential source-sink movements influencing the predator-prey dynamics of this system. This result suggests that the refuge was isolated from the non-refuge.

Consequences of a Refuge for the Predator-Prey Dynamics of a Wolf-Elk System in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Joshua F.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bardsley, John

2014-01-01

Refugia can affect predator-prey dynamics via movements between refuge and non-refuge areas. We examine the influence of a refuge on population dynamics in a large mammal predator-prey system. Wolves (Canis lupus) have recolonized much of their former range in North America, and as a result, ungulate prey have exploited refugia to reduce predation risk with unknown impacts on wolf-prey dynamics. We examined the influence of a refuge on elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolf population dynamics in Banff National Park. Elk occupy the Banff townsite with little predation, whereas elk in the adjoining Bow Valley experience higher wolf predation. The Banff refuge may influence Bow Valley predator-prey dynamics through source-sink movements. To test this hypothesis, we used 26 years of wolf and elk population counts and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method to fit five predator-prey models: 1) with no source-sink movements, 2) with elk density-dependent dispersal from the refuge to the non-refuge, 3) with elk predation risk avoidance movements from the non-refuge to the refuge, 4) with differential movement rates between refuge and non-refuge, and 5) with short-term, source-sink wolf movements. Model 1 provided the best fit of the data, as measured by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In the top model, Banff and Bow Valley elk had median growth rates of 0.08 and 0.03 (95% credibility intervals [CIs]: 0.027–0.186 and 0.001–0.143), respectively, Banff had a median carrying capacity of 630 elk (95% CI: 471.9–2676.9), Bow Valley elk had a median wolf encounter rate of 0.02 (95% CI: 0.013–0.030), and wolves had a median death rate of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.146–0.335) and a median conversion efficiency of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.031–0.124). We found little evidence for potential source-sink movements influencing the predator-prey dynamics of this system. This result suggests that the refuge was isolated from the non-refuge. PMID:24670632

Probing the Dusty Stellar Populations of the Local Volume Galaxies with JWST /MIRI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Olivia C.; Meixner, Margaret; Justtanont, Kay

The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) for the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) will revolutionize our understanding of infrared stellar populations in the Local Volume. Using the rich Spitzer -IRS spectroscopic data set and spectral classifications from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE)–Spectroscopic survey of more than 1000 objects in the Magellanic Clouds, the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch Star Model (grams), and the grid of YSO models by Robitaille et al., we calculate the expected flux densities and colors in the MIRI broadband filters for prominent infrared stellar populations. We use these fluxes tomore » explore the JWST /MIRI colors and magnitudes for composite stellar population studies of Local Volume galaxies. MIRI color classification schemes are presented; these diagrams provide a powerful means of identifying young stellar objects, evolved stars, and extragalactic background galaxies in Local Volume galaxies with a high degree of confidence. Finally, we examine which filter combinations are best for selecting populations of sources based on their JWST colors.« less

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment. Copyright ?? 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of WRF-chem predictions to dust source function specification in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabavi, Seyed Omid; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2017-02-01

Dust storms tend to form in sparsely populated areas covered by only few observations. Dust source maps, known as source functions, are used in dust models to allocate a certain potential of dust release to each place. Recent research showed that the well known Ginoux source function (GSF), currently used in Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-chem), exhibits large errors over some regions in West Asia, particularly near the IRAQ/Syrian border. This study aims to improve the specification of this critical part of dust forecasts. A new source function based on multi-year analysis of satellite observations, called West Asia source function (WASF), is therefore proposed to raise the quality of WRF-chem predictions in the region. WASF has been implemented in three dust schemes of WRF-chem. Remotely sensed and ground-based observations have been used to verify the horizontal and vertical extent and location of simulated dust clouds. Results indicate that WRF-chem performance is significantly improved in many areas after the implementation of WASF. The modified runs (long term simulations over the summers 2008-2012, using nudging) have yielded an average increase of Spearman correlation between observed and forecast aerosol optical thickness by 12-16 percent points compared to control runs with standard source functions. They even outperform MACC and DREAM dust simulations over many dust source regions. However, the quality of the forecasts decreased with distance from sources, probably due to deficiencies in the transport and deposition characteristics of the forecast model in these areas.

Assessment of global nitrogen pollution in rivers using an integrated biogeochemical modeling framework.

PubMed

He, Bin; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamashiki, Yosuke; Takara, Kaoru

2011-04-01

This study has analyzed the global nitrogen loading of rivers resulting from atmospheric deposition, direct discharge, and nitrogenous compounds generated by residential, industrial, and agricultural sources. Fertilizer use, population distribution, land cover, and social census data were used in this study. A terrestrial nitrogen cycle model with a 24-h time step and 0.5° spatial resolution was developed to estimate nitrogen leaching from soil layers in farmlands, grasslands, and natural lands. The N-cycle in this model includes the major processes of nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, immobilization, mineralization, leaching, and nitrogen absorption by vegetation. The previously developed Total Runoff Integrating Pathways network was used to analyze nitrogen transport from natural and anthropogenic sources through river channels, as well as the collecting and routing of nitrogen to river mouths by runoff. Model performance was evaluated through nutrient data measured at 61 locations in several major world river basins. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations calculated by the model agreed well with the observed data and demonstrate the reliability of the proposed model. The results indicate that nitrogen loading in most global rivers is proportional to the size of the river basin. Reduced nitrate leaching was predicted for basins with low population density, such as those at high latitudes or in arid regions. Nitrate concentration becomes especially high in tropical humid river basins, densely populated basins, and basins with extensive agricultural activity. On a global scale, agriculture has a significant impact on the distribution of nitrogenous compound pollution. The map of nitrate distribution indicates that serious nitrogen pollution (nitrate concentration: 10-50 mg N/L) has occurred in areas with significant agricultural activities and small precipitation surpluses. Analysis of the model uncertainty also suggests that the nitrate export in most rivers is sensitive to the amount of nitrogen leaching from agricultural lands. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incentivizing monitoring and compliance in trophy hunting.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Edwards, Charles T T; Atickem, Anagaw; Hailu, Fetene; Milner-Gulland, E J

2013-12-01

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year-to-year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily. Incentivando el Monitoreo y el Cumplimiento en la Caza de Trofeos. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zemcov, M.; Cooray, A.; Bock, J.

We have observed four massive galaxy clusters with the SPIRE instrument on the Herschel Space Observatory and measure a deficit of surface brightness within their central region after removing detected sources. We simulate the effects of instrumental sensitivity and resolution, the source population, and the lensing effect of the clusters to estimate the shape and amplitude of the deficit. The amplitude of the central deficit is a strong function of the surface density and flux distribution of the background sources. We find that for the current best fitting faint end number counts, and excellent lensing models, the most likely amplitudemore » of the central deficit is the full intensity of the cosmic infrared background (CIB). Our measurement leads to a lower limit to the integrated total intensity of the CIB of I{sub 250{mu}m}>0.69{sub -0.03}{sup +0.03}(stat.){sub -0.06}{sup +0.11}(sys.) MJy sr{sup -1}, with more CIB possible from both low-redshift sources and from sources within the target clusters. It should be possible to observe this effect in existing high angular resolution data at other wavelengths where the CIB is bright, which would allow tests of models of the faint source component of the CIB.« less

Improved physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for oral exposures to chromium in mice, rats, and humans to address temporal variation and sensitive populations.

PubMed

Kirman, C R; Suh, M; Proctor, D M; Hays, S M

2017-06-15

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] in mice, rats, and humans developed previously (Kirman et al., 2012, 2013), was updated to reflect an improved understanding of the toxicokinetics of the gastrointestinal tract following oral exposures. Improvements were made to: (1) the reduction model, which describes the pH-dependent reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in the gastrointestinal tract under both fasted and fed states; (2) drinking water pattern simulations, to better describe dosimetry in rodents under the conditions of the NTP cancer bioassay; and (3) parameterize the model to characterize potentially sensitive human populations. Important species differences, sources of non-linear toxicokinetics, and human variation are identified and discussed within the context of human health risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of stochastic models in identification and apportionment of heavy metal pollution sources in the surface soils of a large-scale region.

PubMed

Hu, Yuanan; Cheng, Hefa

2013-04-16

As heavy metals occur naturally in soils at measurable concentrations and their natural background contents have significant spatial variations, identification and apportionment of heavy metal pollution sources across large-scale regions is a challenging task. Stochastic models, including the recently developed conditional inference tree (CIT) and the finite mixture distribution model (FMDM), were applied to identify the sources of heavy metals found in the surface soils of the Pearl River Delta, China, and to apportion the contributions from natural background and human activities. Regression trees were successfully developed for the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, As, and Hg in 227 soil samples from a region of over 7.2 × 10(4) km(2) based on seven specific predictors relevant to the source and behavior of heavy metals: land use, soil type, soil organic carbon content, population density, gross domestic product per capita, and the lengths and classes of the roads surrounding the sampling sites. The CIT and FMDM results consistently indicate that Cd, Zn, Cu, Pb, and Cr in the surface soils of the PRD were contributed largely by anthropogenic sources, whereas As, Ni, and Hg in the surface soils mostly originated from the soil parent materials.

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases.

PubMed

Le Vu, Stéphane; Ratmann, Oliver; Delpech, Valerie; Brown, Alison E; Gill, O Noel; Tostevin, Anna; Fraser, Christophe; Volz, Erik M

2018-06-01

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology of Campylobacter coli Strains Isolated from Different Sources in New Zealand between 2005 and 2014

PubMed Central

Grinberg, Alex; Midwinter, Anne C.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Collins-Emerson, Julie M.; French, Nigel P.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Campylobacteriosis is one of the most important foodborne diseases worldwide and a significant health burden in New Zealand. Campylobacter jejuni is the predominant species worldwide, accounting for approximately 90% of human cases, followed by Campylobacter coli. Most studies in New Zealand have focused on C. jejuni; hence, the impact of C. coli strains on human health is not well understood. The aim of this study was to genotype C. coli isolates collected in the Manawatu region of New Zealand from clinical cases, fresh poultry meat, ruminant feces, and environmental water sources, between 2005 and 2014, to study their population structure and estimate the contribution of each source to the burden of human disease. Campylobacter isolates were identified by PCR and typed by multilocus sequence typing. C. coli accounted for 2.9% (n = 47/1,601) of Campylobacter isolates from human clinical cases, 9.6% (n = 108/1,123) from poultry, 13.4% (n = 49/364) from ruminants, and 6.4% (n = 11/171) from water. Molecular subtyping revealed 27 different sequence types (STs), of which 18 belonged to clonal complex ST-828. ST-1581 was the most prevalent C. coli sequence type isolated from both human cases (n = 12/47) and poultry (n = 44/110). When classified using cladistics, all sequence types belonged to clade 1 except ST-7774, which belonged to clade 2. ST-854, ST-1590, and ST-4009 were isolated only from human cases and fresh poultry, while ST-3232 was isolated only from human cases and ruminant sources. Modeling indicated ruminants and poultry as the main sources of C. coli human infection. IMPORTANCE We performed a molecular epidemiological study of Campylobacter coli infection in New Zealand, one of few such studies globally. This study analyzed the population genetic structure of the bacterium and included a probabilistic source attribution model covering different animal and water sources. The results are discussed in a global context. PMID:27208097

A Case for Radio Galaxies as the Sources of IceCube's Astrophysical Neutrino Flux

DOE PAGES

Hooper, Dan

2016-09-01

Here, we present an argument that radio galaxies (active galaxies with mis-aligned jets) are likely to be the primary sources of the high-energy astrophysical neutrinos observed by IceCube. In particular, if the gamma-ray emission observed from radio galaxies is generated through the interactions of cosmic-ray protons with gas, these interactions can also produce a population of neutrinos with a flux and spectral shape similar to that measured by IceCube. We present a simple physical model in which high-energy cosmic rays are confined within the volumes of radio galaxies, where they interact with gas to generate the observed diffuse fluxes ofmore » neutrinos and gamma rays. In addition to simultaneously accounting for the observations of Fermi and IceCube, radio galaxies in this model also represent an attractive class of sources for the highest energy cosmic rays.« less

78 FR 26617 - National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-07

... of the data sources, data trends and population models that will be used in the upcoming Pacific... longspine thornyhead. The online NWFSC Pre-Assessment Workshop webinar is open to the public, although space...-Assessment Workshop webinar are to: (1) Present and describe data that may be included in the stock...

Meaningful Commitment: Finding Meaning in Volunteer Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnell, Tatjana; Hoof, Matthias

2012-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that volunteer work is associated with various aspects of meaning making by employing a multi-dimensional model of meaning operationalized by the "Sources of Meaning and Meaning in Life Questionnaire" ("SoMe"). An empirical study comparing 168 volunteers with a representative sample of the general population (N =…

When a Fly Has to Fly to Reproduce: Selection against Conditional Recessive Lethals in "Drosophila"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plunkett, Andrea D.; Yampolsky, Lev Y.

2010-01-01

We propose an experimental model suitable for demonstrating allele frequency change in Drosophila melanogaster populations caused by selection against an easily scorable conditional lethal, namely recessive flightless alleles such as apterous and vestigial. Homozygotes for these alleles are excluded from reproduction because the food source used…

EVALUATING EFFECTS OF LOW QUALITY HABITATS ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN PEOMYCUS LEUCOPUS: INSIGHTS FROM FIELD-PARAMETERIZED SPATIAL MATRIX MODELS.

EPA Science Inventory

Due to complex population dynamics and source-sink metapopulation processes, animal fitness sometimes varies across landscapes in ways that cannot be deduced from simple density patterns. In this study, we examine spatial patterns in fitness using a combination of intensive fiel...

Optimization of PV/WIND/DIESEL Hybrid Power System in HOMER for Rural Electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Q.; Jaszczur, M.; Abdulateef, J.

2016-09-01

A large proportion of the world's population lives in remote rural areas that are geographically isolated and sparsely populated. The present study is based on modeling, computer simulation and optimization of hybrid power generation system in the rural area in Muqdadiyah district of Diyala state, Iraq. Two renewable resources, namely, solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) are considered. The HOMER software is used to study and design the proposed hybrid energy system model. Based on simulation results, it has been found that renewable energy sources perhaps replace the conventional energy sources and would be a feasible solution for the generation of electric power at remote locations with a reasonable investment. The hybrid power system solution to electrify the selected area resulted in a least-cost combination of the hybrid power system that can meet the demand in a dependable manner at a cost about (0.321/kWh). If the wind resources in the study area at the lower stage, it's not economically viable for a wind turbine to generate the electricity.

A synthesis of convenience survey and other data to estimate undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men in England and Wales.

PubMed

Walker, Kate; Seaman, Shaun R; De Angelis, Daniela; Presanis, Anne M; Dodds, Julie P; Johnson, Anne M; Mercey, Danielle; Gill, O Noel; Copas, Andrew J

2011-10-01

Hard-to-reach population subgroups are typically investigated using convenience sampling, which may give biased estimates. Combining information from such surveys, a probability survey and clinic surveillance, can potentially minimize the bias. We developed a methodology to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales aged 16-44 years in 2003, making fuller use of the available data than earlier work. We performed a synthesis of three data sources: genitourinary medicine clinic surveillance (11 380 tests), a venue-based convenience survey including anonymous HIV testing (3702 MSM) and a general population sexual behaviour survey (134 MSM). A logistic regression model to predict undiagnosed infection was fitted to the convenience survey data and then applied to the MSMs in the population survey to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed infection in the general MSM population. This estimate was corrected for selection biases in the convenience survey using clinic surveillance data. A sensitivity analysis addressed uncertainty in our assumptions. The estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in MSM was 2.4% [95% confidence interval (95% CI 1.7-3.0%)], and between 1.6% (95% CI 1.1-2.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.1%) depending on assumptions; corresponding to 5500 (3390-7180), 3610 (2180-4740) and 7570 (4790-9840) men, and undiagnosed fractions of 33, 24 and 40%, respectively. Our estimates are consistent with earlier work that did not make full use of data sources. Reconciling data from multiple sources, including probability-, clinic- and venue-based convenience samples can reduce bias in estimates. This methodology could be applied in other settings to take full advantage of multiple imperfect data sources.

How convincing is a matching Y-chromosome profile?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The introduction of forensic autosomal DNA profiles was controversial, but the problems were successfully addressed, and DNA profiling has gone on to revolutionise forensic science. Y-chromosome profiles are valuable when there is a mixture of male-source and female-source DNA, and interest centres on the identity of the male source(s) of the DNA. The problem of evaluating evidential weight is even more challenging for Y profiles than for autosomal profiles. Numerous approaches have been proposed, but they fail to deal adequately with the fact that men with matching Y-profiles are related in extended patrilineal clans, many of which may not be represented in available databases. The higher mutation rates of modern profiling kits have led to increased discriminatory power but they have also exacerbated the problem of fairly conveying evidential value. Because the relevant population is difficult to define, yet the number of matching relatives is fixed as population size varies, it is typically infeasible to derive population-based match probabilities relevant to a specific crime. We propose a conceptually simple solution, based on a simulation model and software to approximate the distribution of the number of males with a matching Y profile. We show that this distribution is robust to different values for the variance in reproductive success and the population growth rate. We also use importance sampling reweighting to derive the distribution of the number of matching males conditional on a database frequency, finding that this conditioning typically has only a modest impact. We illustrate the use of our approach to quantify the value of Y profile evidence for a court in a way that is both scientifically valid and easily comprehensible by a judge or juror. PMID:29099833

The Relationship between Host Lifespan and Pathogen Reservoir Potential: An Analysis in the System Arabidopsis thaliana-Cucumber mosaic virus

PubMed Central

Hily, Jean Michel; García, Adrián; Moreno, Arancha; Plaza, María; Wilkinson, Mark D.; Fereres, Alberto; Fraile, Aurora; García-Arenal, Fernando

2014-01-01

Identification of the determinants of pathogen reservoir potential is central to understand disease emergence. It has been proposed that host lifespan is one such determinant: short-lived hosts will invest less in costly defenses against pathogens, so that they will be more susceptible to infection, more competent as sources of infection and/or will sustain larger vector populations, thus being effective reservoirs for the infection of long-lived hosts. This hypothesis is sustained by analyses of different hosts of multihost pathogens, but not of different genotypes of the same host species. Here we examined this hypothesis by comparing two genotypes of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana that differ largely both in life-span and in tolerance to its natural pathogen Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV). Experiments with the aphid vector Myzus persicae showed that both genotypes were similarly competent as sources for virus transmission, but the short-lived genotype was more susceptible to infection and was able to sustain larger vector populations. To explore how differences in defense against CMV and its vector relate to reservoir potential, we developed a model that was run for a set of experimentally-determined parameters, and for a realistic range of host plant and vector population densities. Model simulations showed that the less efficient defenses of the short-lived genotype resulted in higher reservoir potential, which in heterogeneous host populations may be balanced by the longer infectious period of the long-lived genotype. This balance was modulated by the demography of both host and vector populations, and by the genetic composition of the host population. Thus, within-species genetic diversity for lifespan and defenses against pathogens will result in polymorphisms for pathogen reservoir potential, which will condition within-population infection dynamics. These results are relevant for a better understanding of host-pathogen co-evolution, and of the dynamics of pathogen emergence. PMID:25375140

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

Evidence for a freezing tolerance-growth rate trade-off in the live oaks (Quercus series Virentes) across the tropical-temperate divide.

PubMed

Koehler, Kari; Center, Alyson; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2012-02-01

• It has long been hypothesized that species are limited to the north by minimum temperature and to the south by competition, resulting in a trade-off between freezing tolerance and growth rate. We investigated the extent to which the climatic origins of populations from four live oak species (Quercus series Virentes) were associated with freezing tolerance and growth rate, and whether species fitted a model of locally adapted populations, each with narrow climatic tolerances, or of broadly adapted populations with wide climatic tolerances. • Acorns from populations of four species across a tropical-temperate gradient were grown under common tropical and temperate conditions. Growth rate, seed mass, and leaf and stem freezing traits were compared with source minimum temperatures. • Maximum growth rates under tropical conditions were negatively correlated with freezing tolerance under temperate conditions. The minimum source temperature predicted the freezing tolerance of populations under temperate conditions. The tropical species Q. oleoides was differentiated from the three temperate species, and variation among species was greater than among populations. • The trade-off between freezing tolerance and growth rate supports the range limit hypothesis. Limited variation within species indicates that the distributions of species may be driven more strongly by broad climatic factors than by highly local conditions. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Radio variability in complete samples of extragalactic radio sources at 1.4 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rys, S.; Machalski, J.

1990-09-01

Complete samples of extragalactic radio sources obtained in 1970-1975 and the sky survey of Condon and Broderick (1983) were used to select sources variable at 1.4 GHz, and to investigate the characteristics of variability in the whole population of sources at this frequency. The radio structures, radio spectral types, and optical identifications of the selected variables are discussed. Only compact flat-spectrum sources vary at 1.4 GHz, and all but four are identified with QSOs, BL Lacs, or other (unconfirmed spectroscopically) stellar objects. No correlation of degree of variability at 1.4 GHz with Galactic latitude or variability at 408 MHz has been found, suggesting that most of the 1.4-GHz variability is intrinsic and not caused by refractive scintillations. Numerical models of the variability have been computed.

Evidence of solar wind energy deposition into the ionosphere of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantas, G. P.; Hanson, W. B.

1985-01-01

Suprathermal electron fluxes measured in the ionosphere of Mars by the retarding potential analyzer (RPA) on Viking lander 1 are presented and compared with the photoelectron flux that is produced by the absorption of the solar EUV. The calculation of the equilibrium photoelectron population on Mars is based on the multistream electron transport theory and a model neutral atmosphere and ionosphere that was actually observed by Viking lander 1. From the theoretical equilibrium photoelectron population, the expected RPA volt-ampere characteristic curves are computed and compared with those recorded by the instrument. The theoretical and the observed RPA currents below about 170 km are in agreement, confirming that the solar EUV is the main source of suprathermal electrons at these altitudes. Above about 170 km an additional source of suprathermal electrons is required to explain the observations.

Cosmic gamma-ray bursts from BATSE - Another great debate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, Dieter H.; The, Lih-Sin; Clayton, Donald D.; Schnepf, Neil G.; Linder, Eric V.

1992-01-01

The BATSE detectors aboard Compton Observatory record about one cosmic gamma-ray burst (GRB) per day. Preliminary data analysis shows a highly isotropic sky map and a nonuniform brightness distribution. Anisotropies expected from a Galactic neutron star population, the most frequently considered source model, did not emerge from the data. Taken at face value, the data seem to suggest a heliocentric solution of the GRB puzzle. The observed isotropy can be achieved if sources are either very near or extragalactic. Pop I neutron stars in the disk do not simultaneously fit sky and brightness distributions. A possibility are sources in an extended Galactic halo with scale length large enough to avoid strong anisotropies due to the solar offset from the Galactic center. If GRBs are located in an extended halo we ask whether the neutron star paradigm can survive. We show that the recently discovered high velocity radio pulsars may provide a natural source population for GRBs. If these pulsars formed in the halo, as suggested by the radio data, the possibility arises that GRBs and high velocity pulsars are two related phenomena that provide observational evidence of the dark Galactic corona. We also discuss cosmological redshift constraints that follow from the observed brightness distribution.

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

A structured population model with diffusion in structure space.

PubMed

Pugliese, Andrea; Milner, Fabio

2018-05-09

A structured population model is described and analyzed, in which individual dynamics is stochastic. The model consists of a PDE of advection-diffusion type in the structure variable. The population may represent, for example, the density of infected individuals structured by pathogen density x, [Formula: see text]. The individuals with density [Formula: see text] are not infected, but rather susceptible or recovered. Their dynamics is described by an ODE with a source term that is the exact flux from the diffusion and advection as [Formula: see text]. Infection/reinfection is then modeled moving a fraction of these individuals into the infected class by distributing them in the structure variable through a probability density function. Existence of a global-in-time solution is proven, as well as a classical bifurcation result about equilibrium solutions: a net reproduction number [Formula: see text] is defined that separates the case of only the trivial equilibrium existing when [Formula: see text] from the existence of another-nontrivial-equilibrium when [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulation results are provided to show the stabilization towards the positive equilibrium when [Formula: see text] and towards the trivial one when [Formula: see text], result that is not proven analytically. Simulations are also provided to show the Allee effect that helps boost population sizes at low densities.

Spatial distribution of diesel transit bus emissions and urban populations: implications of coincidence and scale on exposure.

PubMed

Gouge, Brian; Ries, Francis J; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2010-09-15

Macroscale emissions modeling approaches have been widely applied in impact assessments of mobile source emissions. However, these approaches poorly characterize the spatial distribution of emissions and have been shown to underestimate emissions of some pollutants. To quantify the implications of these limitations on exposure assessments, CO, NO(X), and HC emissions from diesel transit buses were estimated at 50 m intervals along a bus rapid transit route using a microscale emissions modeling approach. The impacted population around the route was estimated using census, pedestrian count and transit ridership data. Emissions exhibited significant spatial variability. In intervals near major intersections and bus stops, emissions were 1.6-3.0 times higher than average. The coincidence of these emission hot spots and peaks in pedestrian populations resulted in a 20-40% increase in exposure compared to estimates that assumed homogeneous spatial distributions of emissions and/or populations along the route. An additional 19-30% increase in exposure resulted from the underestimate of CO and NO(X) emissions by macroscale modeling approaches. The results of this study indicate that macroscale modeling approaches underestimate exposure due to poor characterization of the influence of vehicle activity on the spatial distribution of emissions and total emissions.

Graph theory as a proxy for spatially explicit population models in conservation planning.

PubMed

Minor, Emily S; Urban, Dean L

2007-09-01

Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) are often considered the best way to predict and manage species distributions in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. However, they are computationally intensive and require extensive knowledge of species' biology and behavior, limiting their application in many cases. An alternative to SEPMs is graph theory, which has minimal data requirements and efficient algorithms. Although only recently introduced to landscape ecology, graph theory is well suited to ecological applications concerned with connectivity or movement. This paper compares the performance of graph theory to a SEPM in selecting important habitat patches for Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) conservation. We use both models to identify habitat patches that act as population sources and persistent patches and also use graph theory to identify patches that act as stepping stones for dispersal. Correlations of patch rankings were very high between the two models. In addition, graph theory offers the ability to identify patches that are very important to habitat connectivity and thus long-term population persistence across the landscape. We show that graph theory makes very similar predictions in most cases and in other cases offers insight not available from the SEPM, and we conclude that graph theory is a suitable and possibly preferable alternative to SEPMs for species conservation in heterogeneous landscapes.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

PubMed Central

Zipkin, Elise F; Sillett, T Scott; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew

2014-01-01

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales. PMID:24634726

Within-site variability in surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1994-01-01

Most large-scale surveys of animal populations are based on counts of individuals observed during a sampling period, which are used as indexes to the population. The variability in these indexes not only reflects variability in population sizes among sites but also variability due to the inexactness of the counts. Repeated counts at survey sites can be used to document this additional source of variability and, in some applications, to mitigate its effects. We present models for evaluating the proportion of total variability in counts that is attributable to this within-site variability and apply them in the analysis of data from repeated counts on routes from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We analyzed data on 98 species, obtaining estimates of these percentages, which ranged from 3.5 to 100% with a mean of 36.25%. For at least 14 of the species, more than half of the variation in counts was attributable to within-site sources. Counts for species with lower average counts had a higher percentage of within-site variability. We discuss the relative cost efficiency of replicating sites or initiating new sites for several objectives, concluding that it is frequently better to initiate new sites than to attempt to replicate existing sites.

Single sources in the low-frequency gravitational wave sky: properties and time to detection by pulsar timing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Blecha, Laura; Hernquist, Lars; Sesana, Alberto; Taylor, Stephen R.

2018-06-01

We calculate the properties, occurrence rates and detection prospects of individually resolvable `single sources' in the low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) spectrum. Our simulations use the population of galaxies and massive black hole binaries from the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, coupled to comprehensive semi-analytic models of the binary merger process. Using mock pulsar timing arrays (PTA) with, for the first time, varying red-noise models, we calculate plausible detection prospects for GW single sources and the stochastic GW background (GWB). Contrary to previous results, we find that single sources are at least as detectable as the GW background. Using mock PTA, we find that these `foreground' sources (also `deterministic'/`continuous') are likely to be detected with ˜20 yr total observing baselines. Detection prospects, and indeed the overall properties of single sources, are only moderately sensitive to binary evolution parameters - namely eccentricity and environmental coupling, which can lead to differences of ˜5 yr in times to detection. Red noise has a stronger effect, roughly doubling the time to detection of the foreground between a white-noise only model (˜10-15 yr) and severe red noise (˜20-30 yr). The effect of red noise on the GWB is even stronger, suggesting that single source detections may be more robust. We find that typical signal-to-noise ratios for the foreground peak near f = 0.1 yr-1, and are much less sensitive to the continued addition of new pulsars to PTA.

Dispersion modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from combustion of biomass and fossil fuels and production of coke in Tianjin, China.

PubMed

Tao, Shu; Li, Xinrong; Yang, Yu; Coveney, Raymond M; Lu, Xiaoxia; Chen, Haitao; Shen, Weiran

2006-08-01

A USEPA, procedure, ISCLT3 (Industrial Source Complex Long-Term), was applied to model the spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from various sources including coal, petroleum, natural gas, and biomass into the atmosphere of Tianjin, China. Benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq) were calculated for risk assessment. Model results were provisionally validated for concentrations and profiles based on the observed data at two monitoring stations. The dominant emission sources in the area were domestic coal combustion, coke production, and biomass burning. Mainly because of the difference in the emission heights, the contributions of various sources to the average concentrations at receptors differ from proportions emitted. The shares of domestic coal increased from approximately 43% at the sources to 56% at the receptors, while the contributions of coking industry decreased from approximately 23% at the sources to 7% at the receptors. The spatial distributions of gaseous and particulate PAHs were similar, with higher concentrations occurring within urban districts because of domestic coal combustion. With relatively smaller contributions, the other minor sources had limited influences on the overall spatial distribution. The calculated average BaPeq value in air was 2.54 +/- 2.87 ng/m3 on an annual basis. Although only 2.3% of the area in Tianjin exceeded the national standard of 10 ng/m3, 41% of the entire population lives within this area.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Open source electronic health records and chronic disease management

PubMed Central

Goldwater, Jason C; Kwon, Nancy J; Nathanson, Ashley; Muckle, Alison E; Brown, Alexa; Cornejo, Kerri

2014-01-01

Objective To study and report on the use of open source electronic health records (EHR) to assist with chronic care management within safety net medical settings, such as community health centers (CHC). Methods and Materials The study was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago from April to September 2010. The NORC team undertook a comprehensive environmental scan, including a literature review, a dozen key informant interviews using a semistructured protocol, and a series of site visits to CHC that currently use an open source EHR. Results Two of the sites chosen by NORC were actively using an open source EHR to assist in the redesign of their care delivery system to support more effective chronic disease management. This included incorporating the chronic care model into an CHC and using the EHR to help facilitate its elements, such as care teams for patients, in addition to maintaining health records on indigent populations, such as tuberculosis status on homeless patients. Discussion The ability to modify the open-source EHR to adapt to the CHC environment and leverage the ecosystem of providers and users to assist in this process provided significant advantages in chronic care management. Improvements in diabetes management, controlled hypertension and increases in tuberculosis vaccinations were assisted through the use of these open source systems. Conclusions The flexibility and adaptability of open source EHR demonstrated its utility and viability in the provision of necessary and needed chronic disease care among populations served by CHC. PMID:23813566

A more accurate method using MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) to estimate emission burden for regional-level analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaobo

2015-07-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is required by the EPA to replace Mobile 6 as an official on-road emission model. Incorporated with annual vehicle mile traveled (VMT) by Highways Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) vehicle class, MOVES allocates VMT from HPMS to MOVES source (vehicle) types and calculates emission burden by MOVES source type. However, the calculated running emission burden by MOVES source type may be deviated from the actual emission burden because of MOVES source population, specifically the population fraction by MOVES source type in HPMS vehicle class. The deviation is also the result of the use of the universal set of parameters, i.e., relative mileage accumulation rate (relativeMAR), packaged in MOVES default database. This paper presents a novel approach by adjusting the relativeMAR to eliminate the impact of MOVES source population on running exhaust emission and to keep start and evaporative emissions unchanged for both MOVES2010b and MOVES2014. Results from MOVES runs using this approach indicated significant improvements on VMT distribution and emission burden estimation for each MOVES source type. The deviation of VMT by MOVES source type is minimized by using this approach from 12% to less than 0.05% for MOVES2010b and from 50% to less than 0.2% for MOVES2014 except for MOVES source type 53. Source type 53 still remains about 30% variation. The improvement of VMT distribution results in the elimination of emission burden deviation for each MOVES source type. For MOVES2010b, the deviation of emission burdens decreases from -12% for particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and -9% for carbon monoxide (CO) to less than 0.002%. For MOVES2014, it drops from 80% for CO and 97% for PM2.5 to 0.006%. This approach is developed to more accurately estimate the total emission burdens using EPA's MOVES, both MOVES2010b and MOVES2014, by redistributing vehicle mile traveled (VMT) by Highways Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) class to MOVES source type on the basis of comprehensive traffic study, local link-by-link VMT broken down into MOVES source type.

A Challenging View of the 2015 Summer V404 Cyg Outburst at High Energy with INTEGRAL/SPI: The Finale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, Elisabeth; Roques, Jean-Pierre; Rodi, James

2017-01-01

During its strong outburst of 2015 June/July, the X-ray transient V404 Cygni (=GS2023+338) was observed up to a level of 50 Crab in the hard X-ray domain. We focus here on a particularly intense episode preceeding a definitive decline of the source activity. We benefit from large signal-to-noise ratios to investigate the source spectral variability, on a timescale of five minutes. A hardness-intensity study of three broad bands reveals clearly different behaviors at low and high energy (below and above ˜100 keV). In particular, on two occasions, the source intensity varies by a factor of 3-4 in amplitude while keeping the same spectral shape. On the other hand, at the end of the major flare, the emission presents a clear anticorrelation between flux and hardness. These behaviors strongly suggest the presence of two spectral components related to emission processes varying in a largely independent way. The first component (E < 100-150 keV) is classically identified with a Comptonizing thermal electron population, and requires either an unusual seed photon population or a specific geometry with strong absorbing/reflecting material. The second component is modeled by a cutoff power-law, which could correspond to a second hotter Comptonizing population or another mechanism (synchrotron, non-thermal Comptonization...). In the framework of such a model, hardness-intensity and flux-flux diagrams clearly demonstrate that the source evolution follows a well-organized underlying scheme. They reveal unique information about the hard X-ray emission processes and connections between them. Based on observations with INTEGRAL, an ESA project with instruments and science data centre funded by ESA member states (especially the PI countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland), Czech Republic, and Poland, with participation of Russia and USA.

Achieving the WHO sodium target: estimation of reductions required in the sodium content of packaged foods and other sources of dietary sodium.

PubMed

Eyles, Helen; Shields, Emma; Webster, Jacqui; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-08-01

Excess sodium intake is one of the top 2 dietary risk factors contributing to the global burden of disease. As such, many countries are now developing national sodium reduction strategies, a key component of which is a sodium reduction model that includes sodium targets for packaged foods and other sources of dietary sodium. We sought to develop a sodium reduction model to determine the reductions required in the sodium content of packaged foods and other dietary sources of sodium to reduce adult population salt intake by ∼30% toward the optimal WHO target of 5 g/d. Nationally representative household food-purchasing data for New Zealand were linked with branded food composition information to determine the mean contribution of major packaged food categories to total population sodium consumption. Discretionary salt use and the contribution of sodium from fresh foods and foods consumed away from the home were estimated with the use of national nutrition survey data. Reductions required in the sodium content of packaged foods and other dietary sources of sodium to achieve a 30% reduction in dietary sodium intakes were estimated. A 36% reduction (1.6 g salt or 628 mg Na) in the sodium content of packaged foods in conjunction with a 40% reduction in discretionary salt use and the sodium content of foods consumed away from the home would reduce total population salt intake in New Zealand by 35% (from 8.4 to 5.5 g/d) and thus meet the WHO 2025 30% relative reduction target. Key reductions required include a decrease of 21% in the sodium content of white bread, 27% for hard cheese, 42% for sausages, and 54% for ready-to-eat breakfast cereals. Achieving the WHO sodium target in New Zealand will take considerable efforts by both food manufacturers and consumers and will likely require a national government-led sodium reduction strategy. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Modeling X-Ray Binary Evolution in Normal Galaxies: Insights from SINGS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzanavaris, P.; Fragos, T.; Tremmel, M.; Jenkins, L.; Zezas, A.; Lehmer, B. D.; Hornschemeier, A.; Kalogera, V.; Ptak, A.; Basu-Zych, A. R.

2013-09-01

We present the largest-scale comparison to date between observed extragalactic X-ray binary (XRB) populations and theoretical models of their production. We construct observational X-ray luminosity functions (oXLFs) using Chandra observations of 12 late-type galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey. For each galaxy, we obtain theoretical XLFs (tXLFs) by combining XRB synthetic models, constructed with the population synthesis code StarTrack, with observational star formation histories (SFHs). We identify highest-likelihood models both for individual galaxies and globally, averaged over the full galaxy sample. Individual tXLFs successfully reproduce about half of the oXLFs, but for some galaxies we are unable to find underlying source populations, indicating that galaxy SFHs and metallicities are not well matched and/or that XRB modeling requires calibration on larger observational samples. Given these limitations, we find that the best models are consistent with a product of common envelope ejection efficiency and central donor concentration ~= 0.1, and a 50% uniform-50% "twins" initial mass-ratio distribution. We present and discuss constituent subpopulations of tXLFs according to donor, accretor, and stellar population characteristics. The galaxy-wide X-ray luminosity due to low-mass and high-mass XRBs, estimated via our best global model tXLF, follows the general trend expected from the LX -star formation rate and LX -stellar mass relations of Lehmer et al. Our best models are also in agreement with modeling of the evolution of both XRBs over cosmic time and of the galaxy X-ray luminosity with redshift.

Modeling X-Ray Binary Evolution in Normal Galaxies: Insights from SINGS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzanavaris, P.; Fragos, T.; Tremmel, M.; Jenkins, L.; Zezas, A.; Lehmer, B. D.; Hornschemeier, A.; Kalogera, V.; Ptak, A; Basu-Zych, A.

2013-01-01

We present the largest-scale comparison to date between observed extragalactic X-ray binary (XRB) populations and theoretical models of their production. We construct observational X-ray luminosity functions (oXLFs) using Chandra observations of 12 late-type galaxies from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey (SINGS). For each galaxy, we obtain theoretical XLFs (tXLFs) by combining XRB synthetic models, constructed with the population synthesis code StarTrack, with observational star formation histories (SFHs). We identify highest-likelihood models both for individual galaxies and globally, averaged over the full galaxy sample. Individual tXLFs successfully reproduce about half of oXLFs, but for some galaxies we are unable to find underlying source populations, indicating that galaxy SFHs and metallicities are not well matched and/or XRB modeling requires calibration on larger observational samples. Given these limitations, we find that best models are consistent with a product of common envelope ejection efficiency and central donor concentration approx.. = 0.1, and a 50% uniform - 50% "twins" initial mass-ratio distribution. We present and discuss constituent subpopulations of tXLFs according to donor, accretor and stellar population characteristics. The galaxy-wide X-ray luminosity due to low-mass and high-mass XRBs, estimated via our best global model tXLF, follows the general trend expected from the L(sub X) - star formation rate and L(sub X) - stellar mass relations of Lehmer et al. Our best models are also in agreement with modeling of the evolution both of XRBs over cosmic time and of the galaxy X-ray luminosity with redshift.

Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.

2015-12-01

Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics ensembles of CESM, employing results from multiple climate models, and combining the results from single impact models with statistical representations of uncertainty across multiple models. A key consideration is the relationship between the question being addressed and the uncertainty approach.

Nitrate source apportionment using a combined dual isotope, chemical and bacterial property, and Bayesian model approach in river systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yongqiu; Li, Yuefei; Zhang, Xinyu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2017-01-01

Nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a serious problem worldwide, particularly in countries with intensive agricultural and population activities. Previous studies have used δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- to determine the NO3- sources in rivers. However, this approach is subject to substantial uncertainties and limitations because of the numerous NO3- sources, the wide isotopic ranges, and the existing isotopic fractionations. In this study, we outline a combined procedure for improving the determination of NO3- sources in a paddy agriculture-urban gradient watershed in eastern China. First, the main sources of NO3- in the Qinhuai River were examined by the dual-isotope biplot approach, in which we narrowed the isotope ranges using site-specific isotopic results. Next, the bacterial groups and chemical properties of the river water were analyzed to verify these sources. Finally, we introduced a Bayesian model to apportion the spatiotemporal variations of the NO3- sources. Denitrification was first incorporated into the Bayesian model because denitrification plays an important role in the nitrogen pathway. The results showed that fertilizer contributed large amounts of NO3- to the surface water in traditional agricultural regions, whereas manure effluents were the dominant NO3- source in intensified agricultural regions, especially during the wet seasons. Sewage effluents were important in all three land uses and exhibited great differences between the dry season and the wet season. This combined analysis quantitatively delineates the proportion of NO3- sources from paddy agriculture to urban river water for both dry and wet seasons and incorporates isotopic fractionation and uncertainties in the source compositions.

X-Ray Spectral Study of AGN Sources Content in Some Deep Extragalactic XMM-Newton Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, M. A.; Korany, B. A.; Misra, R.; Issa, I. A. M.; Ahmed, M. K.; Abdel-Salam, F. A.

2012-06-01

We undertake a spectral study of a sample of bright X-ray sources taken from six XMM-Newton fields at high galactic latitudes, where AGN are the most populous class. These six fields were chosen such that the observation had an exposure time more than 60 ksec, had data from the EPIC-pn detector in the full-Frame mode and lying at high galactic latitude | b|>25°. The analysis started by fitting the spectra of all sources with an absorbed power-law model, and then we fitted all the spectra with an absorbed power-law with a low energy black-body component model.The sources for which we added a black body gave an F-test probability of 0.01 or less (i.e. at 99% confidence level), were recognized as sources that display soft excess. We perform a comparative analysis of soft excess spectral parameters with respect to the underlying power-law one for sources that satisfy this criterion. Those sources, that do not show evidence for a soft excess, based on the F-test probability at a 99% confidence level, were also fitted with the absorbed power-law with a low energy black-body component model with the black-body temperature fixed at 0.1 and 0.2 keV. We establish upper limits on the soft excess flux for those sources at these two temperatures. Finally we have made use of Aladdin interactive sky atlas and matching with NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) to identify the X-ray sources in our sample. For those sources which are identified in the NED catalogue, we make a comparative study of the soft excess phenomenon for different types of systems.

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Invasive Cyprinid Fish in Europe Originate from the Single Introduction of an Admixed Source Population Followed by a Complex Pattern of Spread

PubMed Central

Simon, Andrea; Britton, Robert; Gozlan, Rodolphe; van Oosterhout, Cock; Volckaert, Filip A. M.; Hänfling, Bernd

2011-01-01

The Asian cyprinid fish, the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva), was introduced into Europe in the 1960s. A highly invasive freshwater fish, it is currently found in at least 32 countries outside its native range. Here we analyse a 700 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to examine different models of colonisation and spread within the invasive range, and to investigate the factors that may have contributed to their invasion success. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of the introduced populations from continental Europe was higher than that of the native populations, although two recently introduced populations from the British Isles showed low levels of variability. Based on coalescent theory, all introduced and some native populations showed a relative excess of nucleotide diversity compared to haplotype diversity. This suggests that these populations are not in mutation-drift equilibrium, but rather that the relative inflated level of nucleotide diversity is consistent with recent admixture. This study elucidates the colonisation patterns of P. parva in Europe and provides an evolutionary framework of their invasion. It supports the hypothesis that their European colonisation was initiated by their introduction to a single location or small geographic area with subsequent complex pattern of spread including both long distance and stepping-stone dispersal. Furthermore, it was preceded by, or associated with, the admixture of genetically diverse source populations that may have augmented its invasive-potential. PMID:21674031

Historical evolution of sources identification by means of Receptor Modeling in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, R. M.; Andrade, M. D. F.; Marien, Y., Sr.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric aerosols sources have been identified in Sao Paulo since the 80´s with the use of receptor models. The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is a megacity with a population of 21 million, corresponding to more than 11% of the total population of Brazil. The first results for the identification of sources of particles were obtained with the application of Absolute Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis and Chemical Mass Balance. More recently the Positive Matrix Factorization has been used in combination with the other receptor models. With the improvement of the aerosol composition analytical determination (more elements and better resolution) the source identification has became more accurate. But, in spite of that, the main sources are the same for fine particles: vehicular emission, secondary formation and biomass burning. The large amount of biofuels used in the MASP makes this region an important example of the atmospheric chemistry of fossil fuel and biofuel emissions. The 7 million vehicles can run on gasohol, ethanol (95% ethanol + 5% gasoline) and biodiesel (mostly for trucks and buses). We have considered the Black Carbon as the tracer for diesel engines and biomass burning, being this last source associated not only with burning of sugar cane plantation and forest fires, but also with wood and charcoal used in restaurant and domestic cooking and residues burning. The responsibility of the vehicular emission to the fine particles has been maintained in approximately 50% of the mass. The soil resuspension was associated with 8% of the fine particles origin. We are presenting the data obtained from experiments performed from 1983 to 2014, not continuously and mainly performed in the winter time. It is a long period of data that is going to be considered. The previous results obtained with the application of PCA were compared to that obtained with PMF applied to the historical data collected at MASP, showing the evolution of the participation of mobile and biomass burning.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K.; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A.; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-01

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Health risk assessment of emissions of dioxins and furans from a municipal waste incinerator: comparison with other emission sources.

PubMed

Meneses, Montse; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2004-06-01

The aim of this study was to calculate the incremental lifetime-risk to dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) for the population living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), as well as to establish the potential reduction on human health risks as a consequence of the adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the MSWI stack. Analytical and modelled results were obtained. PCDD/F concentrations in environmental media were determined by means of a simple-compartment-multimedia model (air-soil-vegetation model). Predicted and measured PCDD/F concentrations in soils and vegetation were compared, and the effects of MSWI emissions in the environmental media were determined. Human health risks due to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI were also estimated based on I-TEQ measured and modelled in various environmental media. Cancer risks due to PCDD/F emissions of the plant were 1.07E-07 and 3.08E-09, before and after installation of the clean air system, respectively. On the other hand, cancer risks due to other PCDD/F emission sources in the area were 5.54E-06 and 1.86E-06. Total PCDD/F cancer risks (including those from diet) for the population living in the vicinity of the MSWI were 1.3E-04 and 4.25E-05, respectively (67.6% of reduction). Hazard ratio for total PCDD/F exposure (including diet) decreased during the last 5 years from 1.16 to 0.38. The above data show that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs also have a notable environmental impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography.

PubMed

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-30

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

2008-07-01

Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate formore » planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing incident management and medical monitoring strategies. The importance of being able to link population estimates to geographic areas during the course of an RDD incident can be understood intuitively: - The spatial distribution of actual total dose equivalents of ionizing radiation is likely to vary due to changes in meteorological parameters as an event evolves over time; - The size of the geographical area affected also is likely to vary as a function of the actual release scenario; - The ability to identify the location and size of the populations that may be exposed to doses of ionizing radiation is critical to carrying out appropriate treatment and post-event medical monitoring; - Once a spatial interaction model has been validated for a city or a region, it can then be used for simulation and prediction purposes to assess the possible human health consequences of different release scenarios. (authors)« less

Black Hole Mergers and Recoils in Low-Mass Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecha, Laura; Kelley, Luke; Koss, Michael; Satyapal, Shobita

2018-01-01

Mergers between massive black holes (BHs) in the intermediate-mass range are one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves (GWs) detectable with LISA. These highly energetic GW events could be observed out to very high redshift, in the epoch where massive BH seeds are thought to form. Despite recent progress, however, much is still not known about the low-mass BH population even in the local Universe. The rates of BH binary formation, inspiral, and merger are also highly uncertain across the BH mass scale. To address these pressing issues in advance of LISA, cosmological hydrodynamics simulations and semi-analytic modeling are being used to model the formation and evolution of BH binaries, and the GW signals they produce. Efforts are also underway to understand the electromagnetic (EM) signatures of the BH binary population. These have proven largely elusive thus far, but an increasing population of BH pairs has been found, and advances in the coming years will provide important comparisons for models of GW sources. Moreover, asymmetry in the GW emission from BH mergers imparts a recoil kick to the merged BH, which in extreme cases can eject the BH from its host galaxy. This creates additional uncertainty in the BH merger rate, but the remnant recoiling BH could be observed as an offset quasar. Identifications of such objects would provide another EM signature of BH mergers that would help pave the way for LISA. We will review model predictions of the BH inspiral and merger rate across the mass scale. We will also describe how the EM signatures of active, merging BHs can be used to constrain theoretical merger rates. Finally, we will discuss the predicted observability of recoiling BHs and ongoing efforts to identify and confirm candidate recoils.

Decay of equatorial ring current ions and associated aeronomical consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, M.-C.; Kozyra, J. U.; Nagy, A. F.; Rasmussen, C. E.; Khazanov, G. V.

1993-01-01

The decay of the major ion species which constitute the ring current is studied by solving the time evolution of their distribution functions during the recovery phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. In this work, only equatorially mirroring particles are considered. Particles are assumed to move subject to E x B and gradient drifts. They also experience loses along their drift paths. Two loss mechanisms are considered: charge exchange with neutral hydrogen atoms and Coulomb collisions with thermal plasma in the plasmasphere. Thermal plasma densities are calculated with a plasmaspheric model employing a time-dependent convection electric field model. The drift-loss model successfully reproduces a number of important and observable features in the distribution function. Charge exchange is found to be the major loss mechanism for the ring current ions; however the important effects of Coulomb collisions on both the ring current and thermal populations are also presented. The model predicts the formation of a low-energy (less than 500 eV) ion population as a result of energy degradation caused by Coulomb collision of the ring current ions with the plasmaspheric electrons; this population may be one source of the low-energy ions observed during active and quiet periods in the inner magnetosphere. The energy transferred to plasmaspheric electrons through Coulomb collisions with ring current ions is believed to be the energy source for the electron temperature enhancement and the associated 6300 A (stable auroral red (SAR) arc) emission in the subauroral region. The calculated energy deposition rate is sufficient to produce a subauroral electron temperature enhancement and SAR arc emissions that are consistent with observations of these quantities during moderate magnetic activity levels.

Spatio-temporal Variations and Source Contributions of China's Premature Deaths Attributable to Ambient PM2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, X.; Wang, H.

2016-12-01

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantifications of the spatial and temporal variations of health impacts attributed to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are not only important for designing effective strategies in mitigating the health damage of air pollution, but also provide valuable references for other developing regions in the world. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2014 attributed to ambient PM2.5 in accord with Global Burden of Disease (GBD) based on a high resolution population density map, satellite retrieved PM2.5 concentration, and provincial health data. An Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model was applied to analyze the premature deaths for four leading causes (ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), stroke) in China. The contributions of emission sources to air pollution and related mortality burdens across China were further evaluated by incorporating CMAQ model. Our results suggest that China's anthropogenic ambient PM2.5 led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42% higher than the level in 2000. Besides the increased PM2.5 concentration, rapid urbanization has been attracting large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impacts. Our analysis implies that the health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. China's regulations on PM2.5 should not be loosened on inner provinces to avoid such national level environmental inequities, and furthermore policies should be designed to form incentive mechanisms to transfer advanced technologies of production and emissions control from the coastal regions to the interior regions. Finally, we discussed the contributions of various emission sources (e.g., power plant, transportation, industries, residential) to premature deaths due to ambient PM2.5 across China.

Using a spatially structured life cycle model to assess the influence of multiple stressors on an exploited coastal-nursery-dependent population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, B.; Rivot, E.; Savina, M.; Le Pape, O.

2018-02-01

Exploited coastal-nursery-dependent fish species are subject to various stressors occurring at specific stages of the life cycle: climate-driven variability in hydrography determines the success of the first eggs/larvae stages; coastal nursery habitat suitability controls juvenile growth and survival; and fisheries target mostly adults. A life cycle approach was used to quantify the relative influence of these stressors on the Eastern English Channel (EEC) population of the common sole (Solea solea), a coastal-nursery-dependent flatfish population which sustains important fisheries. The common sole has a complex life cycle: after eggs hatch, larvae spend several weeks drifting in open water. Survivors go on to metamorphose into benthic fish. Juveniles spend the first two years of their life in coastal and estuarine nurseries. Close to maturation, they migrate to deeper areas, where different subpopulations supplied by different nurseries reproduce and are exploited by fisheries. A spatially structured age-and stage-based hierarchical Bayesian model integrating various aspects of ecological knowledge, data sources and expert knowledge was built to quantitatively describe this complex life cycle. The model included the low connectivity among three subpopulations in the EEC, the influence of hydrographic variability, the availability of suitable juvenile habitat and fisheries. Scenarios were designed to quantify the effects of interacting stressors on population renewal. Results emphasized the importance of coastal nursery habitat availability and quality for the population renewal. Realistic restoration scenarios of the highly degraded Seine estuary produced a two-third increase in catch potential for the adjacent subpopulation. Fisheries, however, remained the main source of population depletion. Setting fishing mortality to the maximum sustainable yield led to substantial increases in biomass (+100%) and catch (+33%) at the EEC scale. The approach also showed how climate-driven variability in hydrography is likely to interact with human pressures, e.g., overfishing increased the sensitivity to unfavourable conditions. Our results provided insights into the dynamics of numerous exploited coastal-nursery-dependent species while paving the way toward more robust advice for sustainable management of these resources.

Zoonotic disease in a peripheral population: persistence and transmission of Leishmania major in a putative sink-source system in the Negev Highlands, Israel.

PubMed

Berger, Ruti; Wasserberg, Gideon; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P

2014-08-01

Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the "mainland" or the "source" patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau ("island patch" or "sink patch") are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change.

Density, distribution, and genetic structure of grizzly bears in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macleod, Amy C.; Boyd, Kristina L.; Boulanger, John; Royle, J. Andrew; Kasworm, Wayne F.; Paetkau, David; Proctor, Michael F.; Annis, Kim; Graves, Tabitha A.

2016-01-01

The conservation status of the 2 threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) of northern Montana and Idaho had remained unchanged since designation in 1975; however, the current demographic status of these populations was uncertain. No rigorous data on population density and distribution or analysis of recent population genetic structure were available to measure the effectiveness of conservation efforts. We used genetic detection data from hair corral, bear rub, and opportunistic sampling in traditional and spatial capture–recapture models to generate estimates of abundance and density of grizzly bears in the CYE. We calculated mean bear residency on our sampling grid from telemetry data using Huggins and Pledger models to estimate the average number of bears present and to correct our superpopulation estimates for lack of geographic closure. Estimated grizzly bear abundance (all sex and age classes) in the CYE in 2012 was 48–50 bears, approximately half the population recovery goal. Grizzly bear density in the CYE (4.3–4.5 grizzly bears/1,000 km2) was among the lowest of interior North American populations. The sizes of the Cabinet (n = 22–24) and Yaak (n = 18–22) populations were similar. Spatial models produced similar estimates of abundance and density with comparable precision without requiring radio-telemetry data to address assumptions of geographic closure. The 2 populations in the CYE were demographically and reproductively isolated from each other and the Cabinet population was highly inbred. With parentage analysis, we documented natural migrants to the Cabinet and Yaak populations by bears born to parents in the Selkirk and Northern Continental Divide populations. These events supported data from other sources suggesting that the expansion of neighboring populations may eventually help sustain the CYE populations. However, the small size, isolation, and inbreeding documented by this study demonstrate the need for comprehensive management designed to support CYE population growth and increased connectivity and gene flow with other populations.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.